Germán & Co 1/23/25 Germán & Co 1/23/25

(WP) Renewables were supposed to take over the grid. Instead they’re falling short.

“Today's electricity landspe is not a one-size-fits-all market…

The industry requires a variety of strategies tailored to different markets and circumstances. Key factors such as regional demands, regulatory environments, available technologies, and the mix of energy sources are essential in creating the most effective approaches for power generation, distribution, and consumption.

Andrés Gluski, President and Chief Executive Officer of AES

World Economic Forum, Davos, Today.

Image by Germán & Co.

`Andrés Gluski, President and Chief Executive Officer of AES`

`World Economic Forum, Davos, Today.`

“Today's electricity landscape is not a one-size-fits-all market; the industry requires a variety of strategies tailored to different markets and circumstances. Key factors such as regional demands, regulatory environments, available technologies, and the mix of energy sources are essential in creating the most effective approaches for power generation, distribution, and consumption.

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Descending progressively into greater depths water ad infinitum in the reality of this mad world…

In a world already teetering on the edge of chaos, a fiery debate is igniting over the future of the electricity industry. Key players—government officials, energy companies, and eco-warriors—are locked in a passionate tug-of-war, each side fervently arguing whether the sector should tighten its reins with stricter regulations or revel in the freedom of its current, more laissez-faire structure.

This clash of perspectives raises vital questions about energy access, sustainability, and the long-term effects on consumers and our planet. As the dialogue unfolds, the urgency for a harmonious blend of innovation and responsible governance has never been more critical.

Once a hot topic, energy efficiency has slipped into the shadows of public conversation. Indeed, Energy efficiency has been overshadowed by energy sources and climate change debates. Yet, it remains a crucial component of a sustainable energy strategy. Improving energy efficiency can reduce consumption, lower emissions, and save costs across all sectors. It's essential to bring this topic back into the spotlight. Policies and incentives that promote energy-saving technologies and public awareness campaigns can reignite interest and action in this area.

In today's reality, about the significance the permitting process for new electricity production sites have become noticeably subdued. This retence stems a fear of regulatory scrutiny that looms over the industry. Establishing a new power plant is fraught with challenges, particularly the intricate and often drawn-out permitting process, which can feel like navigating a complex labyrinth. These obstacles deter open dialogue and highlight the significant struggles facing energy development in a highly regulated environment.

When it comes to climate change, there is considerable fatigue regarding the theme. People may feel overwhelmed by itsity and unsure of how to make a meaningful impact.

The reality is that the electricity sector is not a one-size-fits-all affair. It demands a patchwork of strategies, each finely tuned to various markets' unique needs and circumstances. Regional energy demands, regulatory landscapes, available technologies, and the energy source mix are pivotal in crafting the most effective power generation, distribution, and consumption methods. Thus, industrinry stakeholders must navigate these diverse factors to forge solutions that address their distinct challenges and aspirations, all while enhancing energy efficiency across every facet of electricity use. And let's not forget the necessity of a government framework that simplifies the approval maze.

When tackling the pressing issue of climate change, we must not overlook the recent calamity in Valencia, Spain, where relentless rains unleashed devastating floods that ravaged neighbourhoods and disrupted countless lives. Similarly, the wildfires in Los Angeles have reached catastrophic levels, consuming vast landscapes and threatening homes. Yet, while these events are alarming, they are not unprecedented; humanity has weathered similar storms throughout history, etched into our collective memory for centuries. (*)

And finally, additional concerns for Panamá arise as President Donald Trump’s allies on Hill working to translate his recent complaints about the Panama Canal into legislative action.

(*) https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/donald-trump-climate-change-paris-agreement-b1206121.html

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

There are those who, complying with this, prepare themselves to travel the highways of life, provide themselves with fast engines and soft seats. Others, simpler, choose secondary roads where the speed does not produce so much vertigo and the tolls are cheaper. Many have to join forces and travel the kilometers in collective buses that force the touches and strident music. And there are too many who have no other option than to walk along the humble paths crossing puddles or boulders and threatened by wild beasts or insects. This is the vineyard of the Lord, and everyone can make use of their free will. Say.

Reading the stories of Germán Toro Ghio one discovers that there are also those who chose all paths. And they also added the alternatives of lifts, elevators (and descenders), cliffs, flying devices and perhaps how many more.

With its eight stories, The Owners of No Man's Land takes us to a world so real that, unfortunately, we tend to forget it. From the first story, he (Germán) rides the maelstrom of a roller coaster in which he mixes the discomforts of a Moscow hotel with the adventures in the Nicaraguan jungle. He is a de facto witness to the invasion of the USA army in Panama and his cousin of millenary stubbornness at the same time, without us being able to deduce which of the two experiences was more dangerous. He celebrates supposed birthdays in the company of an aphonic Fidel Castro (what a contradiction!) in a city of Havana corroded by sea salt or political blunders. He walks through one of the most unusual borders in the world, the one that divides the island of Hispaniola. He witnesses the sun sheltering us with unusual loves, in this case, his friend "Pepe" who, on a streak of good fortune, attracts them to a stale gypsy princess and a one-eyed gypsy king in the nights of Madrid and prologues his luck in the world of love to an island called Grinda in the Stockholm archipelago where Alexander's honey captivates.

Germán also takes us to a café in Paris where Ernest Hemingway is in existential conversations about life, accompanied by the sweet notes of a Santa Teresa rum, which invades the soul with harmony and helps the journalist and writer try to persuade some young gang members to change the course of their lives, in this world of violence, organ trafficking, and arms. He evokes the spirit of the Nicaraguan poet and priest Ernesto Cardenal, particularly in his mesmerising "Ode to Marilyn Monroe". This remarkable work invites him to explore the labyrinth of the mind's afflictions, guided by the brushstrokes of legendary artists such as Sorolla, Munch, Botero, and Modigliani. Alongside this artistic journey, we encounter the candid whispers of Truman Capote in his poignant "Unanswered Prayers", which lays bare the frailties of our contemporary society, political systems, and monarchies. Ultimately, Germán leads us to a heartwarming conclusion with the charming figure of "il Nono", a grandfatherly character we all wish we could have known.

The book is magnified by experiences that have taken place outside the battlefields, far from palaces and ambitions. In other words, the principle of freedom of expression is paramount, even when individuals may endure defamation's repercussions. With these stories, Germán Toro Ghio allows us to taste something of everything he keeps in his cupboard, and I hope he will continue to cook and deliver in successive books.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com

————————————————————————————————————————————————————

O gods, women, and men with the souls of gods and goodwill, we request your solidarity and support for launching the second revised and extended edition of "The Owner of Non-Man Lan and Other Tales" in November 2025. We have already contacted a senior editor at Penguin Random House in London to help us create a remarkable and distinctive book handcrafted to serve as an exceptional corporate gift.

Thanks in advance...

**You can't possibly deny me...**

**Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…**

In December 2023, Energy Central recognized outstanding contributors within the Energy & Sustainability Network during the 'Top Voices' event. The recipients of this honor were highlighted in six articles, showcasing the acknowledgment from the community. The platform facilitates professionals in disseminating their work, engaging with peers, and collaborating with industry influencers. Congratulations are extended to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for their exemplary demonstration of expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1882421944894542192

**You can't possibly deny me...**

**Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…**

Donate

Natural Gas Terminal AES ANDRES, located in the Dominican Republic. Image provided by AES Dominicana.

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES, articulated this perspective during the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2023, stating, "I am confident we will need natural gas for the next 20 years." He further emphasized, "We can start blending it with green hydrogen today."

Not Angela, not...

Renewables were supposed to take over the grid. Instead they’re falling short.

Despite generous tax credits, red tape has slowed wind and solar.

WP By Shannon Osaka, January 22, 2025

For years, renewable energy proponents have hoped to build a U.S. electric grid powered by wind, solar, geothermal and — to a lesser extent — nuclear power, with carbon-free energy surging into homes and businesses across the country. When President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, which slashed the cost of building renewables, that dream seemed likely to become a reality.

But now, renewable developers say that the new technologies are stymied by complicated local and federal regulations, a long wait to connect to the electricity grid, and community opposition. Experts once hoped that by the end of the decade the United States could generate up to 80 percent of its power with clean power, and Biden set it as a national goal. Now, some wonder if the country will be able to reach even 60 percent.

That means that even as renewables continue to break records, the Biden administration departs with the nation offtrack from its climate target of cutting emissions 50 to 52 percent by 2030. And as President Donald Trump takes the reins, threatening tariffs and halting new permitting for wind, the country is drifting further away from an all-renewable future.

Trump’s new executive order mandates a halt to all offshore wind leasing in federal waters, pauses federal permitting for both onshore and offshore wind projects and launches a “comprehensive assessment and review” of wind leasing and permitting.

“The U.S. offshore wind business is at a very nascent stage versus Europe or China,” Rob Barnett, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in an email. “With the new permitting pause, it’s doubtful much progress for this emerging industry will be made under the second Trump administration.”

The order compounds struggles that the renewable energy industry was already facing. In theory, a better-designed grid could lead to renewable penetration of 60 to 70 percent, said Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association. But that’s only with substantial changes to where wind and solar can be built and how it gets connected to the grid.

“Without progress, probably some places tap out at half that,” he said.

After the Inflation Reduction Act passed, Rhodium Group — an independent clean energy research firm — estimated that between 2023 and 2025, on average, the country would add between 36 and 46 gigawatts of clean electricity to the grid every year. Late last year, however, the group found that the country only installed around 27 gigawatts in 2023. The U.S.’s renewable growth is now expected to fall on the low end of that range — or miss it entirely.

“It actually is really hard to build a lot of this stuff fast,” said Trevor Houser, partner in climate and energy at Rhodium Group.

As a result, Rhodium found, the country only cut carbon emissions by 0.2 percent in 2024. To reach Biden’s climate goal, the country needs more than 7.6 percent every year from now until 2030. (The only example of such a steep drop in recent history was during covid-19, when emissions dropped about 10 percent in 2020.)

A significant amount of this lag has come from wind power, where problems with supply chains and getting permits and approval to build has put a damper on development. But solar construction is also on the low end of what experts were expecting.

“Immediately after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, there was a whole lot of enthusiasm,” said Brendan Pierpont, director of electricity modeling at Energy Innovation, a nonpartisan clean energy think tank. Models mostly use economics to make predictions — analyzing what the most cost-efficient actions will be and calculating the results accordingly. But the challenges that energy developers face today are not economic.
“The premise of these congressional clean energy tax credits was to stimulate remarkable acceleration,” said Grumet. “The technology is ready, and the financial services are ready — but the question nobody put thought into was, could the government keep up? And at the moment, the answer is no.”

Renewables have many great benefits — they don’t produce deadly air pollution or contribute to global warming. But the electricity grid was in large part built for fossil fuels, which can be placed close to the communities they serve. Wind and solar, on the other hand, sometimes need to be built hundreds or even thousands of miles away — which then requires large, long-distance transmission lines to move power. Renewables also take up more space, although in some places wind and solar can coexist with agriculture and animal grazing.

“The grid that we have was never designed to handle this kind of load,” said Sandhya Ganapathy, CEO of EDP Renewables North America.

Developers point to lags in the interconnection queue — a system that gives new solar, wind or fossil fuel projects permission to connect to the larger electricity grid. According to a report from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, it can now take nearly 3 years for a project to get through the queue. The grid operator that covers the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest, PJM, had over 3,300 projects in its queue at the end of 2023. The vast majority of these applications are for renewables — more than the entire number of active wind farms in the nation.

Not all areas of the United States are equal. According to data from the Energy Information Administration and analyzed by Energy Innovation, Texas installed more solar, wind and storage than any other grid area between 2022 and 2024.

A worker walks past solar panels at ENGIE's Sun Valley Solar project in Hill County, Texas. (Mark Felix/AFP/Getty Images)

Ganapathy said that while a state like Texas can approve projects faster, most of the rising energy demand from AI and data centers is coming from the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest.

“A project takes anywhere between six to eight years,” Ganapathy said. “All of the AI needs are coming — are they going to wait six to eight years until we have more power in the system? We need to streamline this.”

Then there are the high-voltage transmission lines that move that power across the country. According to one study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the country could require up to 10,000 new miles of transmission to switch to clean electricity by 2035. Last year, the country built just 255 miles of new transmission line, according to the American Clean Power Association. Some projects have gotten stalled for years; one such line in the Southwest, the SunZia line, just started construction after 18 years of development.

“If you have a weak transmission system, we will always be hesitant to build a project,” said Ganapathy. “Why are we taking a big risk of a massive investment if I will not be able to sell the electrons?”

Developers say that getting community support can also get more difficult as more and more wind and solar are added to the grid. “The low-hanging fruit has been developed,” said John Woody, senior vice president of development at Clearway Energy Group.

Anti-wind and anti-solar groups have also begun using more sophisticated methods and have more funding, he added. Some states and cities have even tried to ban development of renewables, often citing misleading information about environmental or health hazards.

There are possible solutions. Some developers hope to reuse old fossil fuel sites, like coal plants, that are already connected to the grid — bypassing the long queue entirely. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has instated new rules to make it easier to build transmission lines.

But those changes need to happen quickly. The United States is currently building 20 to 40 gigawatts of renewables every year — but that number will need to increase to 70 or 80 gigawatts to meet U.S. climate goals. “We’re building record amounts of wind and solar every year, but it seems like we’re kind of hitting a ceiling,” said Houser.

Developers also worry about the threat of Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could further destabilize an industry that relies on predicting prices and supply chains months or even years in advance. Without advance knowledge or planning of the tariffs, they warned, projects could grind to a halt.

Still the economics of clean energy are strong. Wind and solar, in many jurisdictions, are cheaper than fossil fuel plants. The challenge is building those wind and solar farms at a fast pace that will push aside existing coal and natural gas plants — before temperatures rise much higher.

“If you had told me 20 years ago when I started working on climate, that we would be having discussions about not the direction of change, but the pace — I would be dancing in the streets,” said Houser. “The challenge is just, can we build it fast enough?”

Germán & Co 1/22/25 Germán & Co 1/22/25

What Happened with the Energy Sector: Market Talk Roundup.

A New American Empire: An Analysis

Donald Trump has regained control of the White House, posing a potential challenge to the existing global order and aspiring to establish a new American empire that spans from Panama to Greenland. Thus far, European politicians and bureaucrats have notably refrained from expressing significant outrage in response to these developments.

The current geopolitical climate bears resemblance to the summer of 1972, particularly in Reykjavík, Iceland, a location characterized by its isolation and unique environmental conditions. This city, situated in the frigid waters of the North Atlantic, is distanced from the economic and geopolitical upheavals affecting Europe and the Baltic region.

In a related context, an article in the Mexican newspaper "El Universal" outlines strategic measures to navigate the tariffs imposed by President Trump. These measures include the establishment of a new migration policy, achieving "Safe Third Country" status, intensifying efforts against drug trafficking, and enhancing economic integration between Mexico and the United States. The proposed strategies aim to mitigate the adverse effects of tariffs and strengthen bilateral relations.

In conclusion, the geopolitical landscape remains fluid, with numerous challenges and opportunities for international relations. The implications of these developments are yet to be fully realized.

Image by Germán & Co.

A New American Empire…

Donald Trump has taken back the White House, threatening to upend the world order and build a new American empire, from Panama to Greenland. So far, Europe’s politicians and bureaucrats have resolutely refused to explode in outrage.

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-brussels-donald-trump-white-house-paris-climate-agreement-nato/

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Going deeper and deeper and deepest…

Have you paid the electricity bill? What is that? Electricity bill?

Yes, electricity bill. What is that? With each passing day, the world increasingly resembles the summer of 1972 in Reykjavík, the capital of distant Iceland. This city is nestled in the icy waters of the Atlantic Ocean, specifically in its northern reaches, closer to the famous Greenland, and far removed from the economic and geopolitical turmoil of its cousin in the Baltic Sea and Europe of course.

What is the flash back?

Firstly, we must talk on Iceland due to the complexity and inexplicable intelligence of its remarkable ecosystems that envelop the island. In Iceland, many of these paradigms converge. The solar constellation's light shines with such intensity during the, causing a peculiar phenomenon – especially for those who are not from there – during which night vanishes, and brightness persists throughout the entire twenty-four hours of the day. As autumn approaches, this same stream of brightness gradually fades and disappears entirely in winter, transforming into an eternal darkness that troubles the human soul.

However, we also focused on the enigmas of environmental biodiversity. Iceland's proximity to the Arctic should make it uninhabitable, but it is not. This lost rock near the North Pole has an incredible, almost infinite source of geothermal energy from the copious activity of its volcanoes. Such is the amount of force evolving in its underground caverns that the pressure from it seeks an outlet by fracturing the island's ground, resulting in the formation of geysers. They furiously emanate jets of hot water and near-boiling steam dozens of meters into the air. Due to its abundant geothermal energy, these conditions make Iceland self-sufficient in electricity consumption.

It is thanks to the unique symbiosis of the biological diversity of this otherwise uninhabitable delta that it has become a microcosm suitable for the development of human life. This small population of Icelanders, around 400,000 people, is one of the happiest societies on Earth, yet the reality seems different: its suicide rate is one of the highest in the world.

Unlike the countries on the old continent, they do not have the natural benefits of this incredible ecosystem in terms of energy. History and its contradictions... It was the summer of 1972, Tuesday 11 July to be precise. One of the purest and most solitary ecosystems in the world, Iceland, had chosen - who knows for what reason, to help cleanse the polluted atmosphere of that sinister bipolar world - to host one of the most notorious events of the Cold War, the so-called Match of the Century for the world chess championship.

Media coverage of the sporting event unfolded under a strategy of intense propaganda by both political systems. The world's attention focused on all the probe balloons fired from the circus set up in the tiny Reykjavík.

The comings and goings of the unpredictable prodigal chess child and aspiring world champion, Robert (Bobby) James Fisher (Chicago, Illinois, USA, 9 March 1943), represent the United States. His opponent, known as the knight of the sport of kings, international grandmaster, and world chess champion Boris Vasilyevich Spassky (St. Petersburg, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, USSR, 30 January 1937), was the other star of this staging.

The aspiring world chess champion, Bobby Fisher, who only the day before, 10 July, had decided to take part in the championship - not at all unusual for him, given his well-known habit of making as much money as possible out of the situation - had to resort to a phone call from the US foreign secretary, Henry Kissinger, to finally make his participation in the Match of the Century viable.

The championship staged at the National Theatre in Iceland. The match was played over twenty-five games, and the first of the two chess players to reach the coveted and necessary score of 12.5 points would crown the new world champion. In short, one of the two political blocs would win this worldwide media war. However, in this stratagem of scholars with supernatural intelligence, the loss limited only to the dishonour of having defeated, according to the world.

-- Chicken run applies to an offensive escalation in which neither side has anything to lose (The Chicken "Josefina Mesa ... - Blogger").

Speculatively, after forty-nine days of cognitive attrition and fifty-four moves, we can think that this was the tenor of the penultimate game (20) for the world chess championship between Spassky and Fisher on 29 August 1972 at the National Theatre in Iceland, to force a draw premeditated. Of course, both Fisher and Spassky really don't have anything significant to lose in this situation...

In the current geopolitical landscape, which resembles the summer of 1972 but involves a greater number of significant players, including major nations like China and North Korea, alongside a hidden and increasingly influential Iran, there is a pronounced element of propaganda filled with misinformation. After 1,000 days of war between Russia and Ukraine, the expression "chicken run"—which suggests an offensive escalation where neither side has anything to lose—does not apply in this case. On the contrary, all parties involved have much to lose because President Trump has been speaking out loudly about the matter, and the European Union has “reprimanded” Norway.

https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-oil-europe-profits-ukraine-russia-war-oslo-western-sanctions-democrats/

A stern reprimand from Trump to Putin…

Today, President Donald Trump delivered a sharp warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging him to halt the aggression in Ukraine without delay. Trump emphasized that if a swift resolution isn't achieved, Russia could face hefty taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on its imports. However, we all know that such measures have often fallen short in the past. Sanctions and economic strategies have a bit of a hit-or-miss history. They can certainly crank up the pressure on a nation, but they don’t always hit the mark in terms of achieving the intended political shifts. The effectiveness often hinges on how sturdy the targeted country's economy is and how steadfast its leaders are in weathering the storm. Take Russia, for instance—past sanctions have made some waves, but they haven’t quite been the game-changer needed to alter its trajectory in a meaningful way. He also articulated his intention to offer assistance to Russia during these challenging times and acknowledged his previously amicable and cooperative relationship with Putin; however he emphasized the necessity of ending the conflict to avert further casualties. This statement represents a notable change in Trump's rhetoric, as he has previously expressed admiration for Putin. He is now exerting direct pressure on the Russian leader to pursue diplomatic negotiations.

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-threaten-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-tariff-sanction/

This position is deemed unacceptable.

Concurrently, it is imperative for the United States and Europe to garner as much support as possible, particularly in light of Norway's reluctance to increase its contributions, given the significant economic benefits it derives from the ongoing conflict. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has indicated in the past that "no one is willing to give away their natural gas currently," and that Norway is not providing additional international economic assistance to alleviate the rising costs of natural gas, as stated during his official visit to Sweden on August 28, 2022. This position is deemed unacceptable.

Norwegian war profits from natural gas during this period are estimated at USD 33 billion.

Norway was invaded by Nazi Germany on April 9, 1940, during World War II. The occupation lasted until May 8, 1945. Norway's experiences during World War II have left a lasting impact on its national consciousness. The invasion and occupation by Nazi Germany were significant events that shaped the country's history and collective memory. This historical experience has likely influenced Norway's foreign policy and approach to international conflicts and humanitarian efforts. Understanding the devastation and consequences of war firsthand, Norway has often advocated for peace and stability on the global stage. Their past experiences may contribute to their cautious and considered responses to modern geopolitical events.

Norway's oil and gas sector plays a pivotal role in the nation's economy. The government's revenue derived from petroleum activities is significant, with projections indicating a net cash flow of USD 62.3 billion for 2024 and USD 56.7 billion for 2025. These revenues are essential for sustaining Norway's welfare state and are anticipated to benefit both current and future generations. The oil and gas industry accounts for approximately 20% of Norway's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Furthermore, Norway's supply of oil and natural gas to Europe is expected to remain relatively stable until 2030. Notably, Norway's gas exports to the European Union experienced an increase of over 10% from 2021 to 2023, a trend that coincided with Western sanctions imposed on Russia and the subsequent rise in global prices. The profits generated from natural gas during this period were estimated to be USD 33 billion.

Mexico-USA Scuffle.

In an article published today by the Mexican newspaper "El Universal," titled "To Navigate the Tariffs Imposed by President Donald Trump," author Mario Maldonado outlines ten strategic measures designed to address the challenges posed by these tariffs. The proposed steps include:

1. **New Migration Policy**: Establishing a program aimed at stabilizing citizens in their countries of origin to manage migration flows from Central America.

2. **Achieving 'Safe Third Country' Status**: Mexico is expected to attain this designation through the mass deportation of migrants and the implementation of the "Stay in Mexico" initiative.

3. **Enhanced Crackdown on Cartels and Fentanyl Trafficking**: Intensifying efforts to combat the trafficking of fentanyl into the United States.

4. **Combating Smuggling from Asia**: Strengthening measures against smuggling operations originating from Asia.

5. **Reducing Imports of Chinese Products**: Accelerating initiatives to substitute imports from China with products sourced from Mexico.

6. **Increasing Integration of U.S. Products into Mexico's Value Chain**: Revitalizing nearshoring practices and enhancing economic integration.

7. **Reviving Infrastructure on Mexico's Southern Border**: Implementing infrastructure projects along the border with Guatemala.

8. **Renegotiating the USMCA**: Conducting a review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement prior to 2026.

9. **Reversing Policies on Genetically Modified Corn and Energy**: Reintroducing genetically modified crops and amending regulations that favor state-owned enterprises over private entities.

10. **Collaboration with U.S. Security Agencies**: Enhancing information sharing and cooperation on security matters.

These measures are intended to alleviate the adverse effects of tariffs and to fortify the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States.

Well, everything is still open… good night…

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com

————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Thanks in advance...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1882274613033402436

Not Angela, not...

What Happened with the Energy Sector: Market Talk Roundup.

By WSJ:

0823 ET – The market will move in the direction of new energy sources, boosted by technological changes, former U.S Secretary of State John Kerry tells Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. President Trump is correct when he flags the need for firm energy, the former U.S. Presidential climate envoy says. “Trump’s drill baby drill should be build baby build,” he adds. Data centers demand a massive amount of energy, and the type of energy to be used remains uncertain. Currently, China is leading the renewable energy market, and the U.S. needs to compete. However, any progress is stopped by bi-partisan politics, he adds. “The energy crisis seems to have been weaponized.” That’s why the market will drive energy change supported by technology prices, rather than commodity prices or governments, he says. (najat.kantouar@wsj.com)

0526 ET – Europe should aim for a fair playing field rather than a level one, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says after President Trump took the reins of the U.S. government, promising to rip up much red tape. In the face of hotter competition from a more deregulated America, European regulators could put energy into removing overlap and extraneous rules, Lagarde tells CNBC at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland. But their focus should be on protecting consumers and savers from the next financial crisis and product hazard, and from climate change that in recent months caused disastrous fires in California and disastrous flooding in Spain, the central banker says. “That might actually provide not necessarily a level playing field, but a playing field where actors will actually compete in a fair way,” she says. “I think Europe is prepared for that.” (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0317 ET – Trade need not be the enemy of the climate transition, World Trade Organization director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala tells a World Economic Forum panel in Davos, Switzerland. “The general perception is that trade contributes to more global emissions,” Okonjo-Iweala says. “”But people neglect some of the [environmental] benefits that trade brings,” she says, pointing to the adoption of clean technology and renewable energies that would not be possible without global trade. She calls for greater adoption of policies that would allow countries to focus on lower-emission production, such as a global carbon tax. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

1504 ET – Oil’s uptrend at the start of the year reflects unsustainable momentum fueled by winter demand, a short-term Chinese export boost ahead of U.S. tariff risks, and upside risks from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, Forex.com market analyst Razan Hilal says in a note. “The bullish drive was rejected at the $80 resistance level as concerns over non-OPEC production risks resurfaced following Trump’s inauguration speech, which emphasized oil overproduction,” she says. A firm close below $75 for WTI could pave the way to supports at $72 and $68, Hilal adds. WTI settles down 0.5% at $75.44 a barrel and Brent falls 0.4% to $79.00 a barrel, extending their losing streaks to four and five sessions, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1307 ET – President Trump should bring “action, decisions and probably more certainty,” to America’s Ukraine policy, says Maxim Timchenko, the CEO of Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK. “More certainly about further development, more certainty about [the] position of [the] United States, more certainty about [the] resolution of this war. And I think that, 2025, we all hope that this year will bring fair peace to Ukraine,” he says. Timchenko, who is attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, says his meetings with American financial institutions during the conference have yielded “tangible, more concrete discussions,” about investment in the country. (joshua.jamerson@wsj.com)

0936 ET – SSE has underperformed the European utility index by 10% over the last 3 months, presenting an attractive entry opportunity for investors, analysts at Jefferies write. The U.K. government plans to overhaul its transmission grid to facilitate more offshore wind connections. This will be a game-changer for SSE’s transmission grids and presents significant opportunities for growth, the analysts write. SSE also appears to be on track to hit expected completion dates at its Dogger Bank offshore wind project—worries about which dragged on its stock in 2024, they write. The analysts upgrade the stock rating to buy from hold and set a share price target of 1,930 pence. Shares trade down 0.8% at 1,588.50 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0916 ET – Crude futures are little changed with the market digesting the implications of energy and trade policy under the Trump administration. Uncertainty around Iran sanctions, tariffs against Canada and Mexico and an increased possibility of an end to the Russia-Ukraine war could provide background support for oil, Ritterbusch says in a note. But initiatives like increased drilling permits in the U.S. “we almost view as redundant” with output growth this year limited by production already at record levels, and majors restricted by efforts to maintain shareholder returns, the firm adds. WTI is off 0.1% at $75.76 as the front month switches to March, and Brent slips 0.1% to $79.19 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0912 ET – Iberdrola is expected to continue its decade-long period of earnings and dividend growth in 2025 and beyond, analysts at Jefferies write. The analysts expect 6% earnings per share growth in 2025. The Spanish energy utility company’s exposure to electricity grids will continue to be one of its core strengths given the uncertain outlook for the renewables sector, they write. Iberdrola also looks set to stay ahead of its peers and capitalize on data centers as a source of revenue growth. The analysts upgrade the stock rating to buy from hold and set a target share price of 17 euros. Shares fall 0.75% to 13.23 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0650 ET – U.S. and Canada can collaborate more on energy—particularly on liquefied natural gas—and rare earth minerals, Royal Bank of Canada President and Chief Executive Dave McKay tells Bloomberg on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Canada could become a key supplier to the U.S. of germanium, a critical mineral used in the production of fighter jets, after top producer China banned the exports of germanium to U.S., McKay says. Canada is also positioning itself as a supplier of green energy to power U.S. data centers, and is seeing great interest from them, he adds. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)

0424 ET – India is open to buying more U.S. energy as President Trump seeks to “unleash” domestic energy production, A.S Sahney, chairman of IndianOil, says in an interview with Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He expects new U.S. sanctions on Russia to remove around 2 million barrels of oil a day. However, there is capacity across the oil market to fill this gap, he says. Sahney says he isn’t expecting volatility in the oil markets soon. Demand growth for gasoline in India isn’t slowing but diesel growth is temporarily lower, he adds. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0336 ET – U.S. President Trump’s decision to ramp up production of liquefied natural gas is “certainly good news” for Europe, Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission vice president for the economy, tells the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Europe can still put more pressure on Russia by reducing LNG imports further, the Latvian politician says. More than half of the EU’s LNG now comes from the U.S., he notes. Ukraine’s Western allies should focus on Russia’s sanction circumvention, he adds. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)

0247 ET – Policy direction by the Trump administration could play a dominant role in the oil market’s trajectory in the short term, says Dilin Wu, Pepperstone’s research strategist. On the supply side, Trump’s national energy emergency declaration and his push for energy independence are significant drivers of bearish momentum, Wu writes in a note. Trump’s policies could likely turn the U.S. into a net energy exporter, which may have lasting implications for global oil prices, Wu says. Traders will assess the balance between economic growth, energy security and policy risks, as more details emerge over energy production and trade agreements, Wu adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are down 0.65% at $75.34/bbl; front-month Brent is 0.5% lower at $78.89/bbl.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0153 ET – Technology solutions provider CSE Global should gain from President Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency, Maybank analyst Jarick Seet writes in a note. The executive order will speed the permissions for oil and gas production. The move should boost U.S. oil- and gas-related activities significantly, benefiting the Singapore-listed company, which has significant exposure to oil and gas projects in the country, he says. Maybank maintains the stock’s buy rating and target price of S$0.64. Shares are up 1.1% at S$0.45.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

1650 ET – Development of the Dorado oil project in Western Australia isn’t likely to begin before 2026, assumes Euroz Hartleys. Carnarvon Energy, which owns 10% of Dorado, yesterday said a final investment decision on the project wouldn’t happen in 2025 as planned and didn’t offer a new timetable. Euroz Hartleys cuts its price target on Carnarvon by 53% to A$0.18/share, but retains a buy call on the stock. “Carnarvon has A$180 million of cash, no debt and a US$90 million Dorado development free carry,” analyst Declan Bonnick says. “The cash alone is worth A$0.10/share, potentially a lower trading limit to the Carnarvon share price.” Carnarvon ended Tuesday at A$0.12. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1550 ET – Oil futures fall as the market weighs the implications of President Trump’s pledges to raise U.S. production through easier permitting and opening up acreage, and to turn back some of the Biden administration’s clean-energy policies. Oil “is also trading lower on the Trump delay in tariffs after threatening to impose big numbers on the U.S.’s top trade partners on day one,” Mizuho’s Robert Yawger says in a note. Trump said he’s thinking of imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1. A 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian oil would put at risk about 4.5 million barrels a day of the 16.6 million b/d that goes through U.S. refineries, Yawger says. “Kicking that can down the street a couple weeks takes some supply chain concerns off the table for U.S. refiners…for now,” he adds. February WTI goes off the board at $75.89 a barrel, down 2.6% and March WTI falls 2% to $75.83. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1407 ET – President Trump’s pledge to refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve “right to the top” may act as a downside buffer for crude prices rather than a catalyst for a rally, says CIBC Private Wealth US senior energy trader Rebecca Babin. “You need the money for that,” she says. The sentiment is there, but “you’ve got to have the budget for it and then the pricing has to be there, too. I don’t think either of those things are lined up for it.” The SPR held around 394 million barrels on Jan. 10, compared with 638 million barrels at the start of the Biden administration. Filling it completely would take more than 300 million additional barrels. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Germán & Co 1/22/25 Germán & Co 1/22/25

A Complex Checkerboard For The Power Industry…

Trump Aims to Boost Energy Production, but Excludes Wind Solar…

Legal experts stated the was pushing the limits of executive authority with assertive directives intended to prevent the nation shifting to renewable energy sources.

Workart by Germán & Co is fully owned.

Trump Wants to Unleash Energy, as Long as It’s Not Wind or Solar…

Legal experts said the president was testing the boundaries of executive power with aggressive orders designed to stop the country from transitioning to renewable energy.

NYT Today

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Going deeper and deeper…

On Monday, President Donald Trump issued an executive order that halted the disbursement of funds designated for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA was anticipated to allocate hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for clean energy and various climate initiatives, including incentives for electric vehicles, wind, solar, hydrogen, and nuclear power projects. The suspension of this funding initiative could have significant implications for numerous climate and energy programs, particularly those related to wind energy.

This decision marks a notable shift in North American energy policy, with potential profound effects on the renewable energy sector. It may impede the progress of both ongoing and future projects, adversely affect job creation, and temporarily restrict investment in the energy industry. The ramifications of this decision are likely to induce substantial changes that could influence both domestic and international market dynamics, potentially resulting in detrimental ripple effects in other regions.

Concurrently, President Trump has underscored the importance of maintaining affordable energy prices. On the same day, he signed several executive orders aimed at enhancing fossil fuel production and alleviating regulatory constraints on the energy sector to achieve this objective. The administration posits that increasing domestic energy production will contribute to lowering energy prices and fostering economic growth.

Conversely, European Union President Ursula von der Leyen expressed firm support for renewable energy at the recent World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, yesterday. Her stance aligns closely with the principles of the “2030 Agenda”, which seeks to ensure universal access to modern energy, enhance the utilization of renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, promote clean energy research and technology, and expand energy services in developing nations. These initiatives are designed to combat climate change, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and promote sustainable development, which stands in opposition to President Trump's perspective on renewable energy. Von der Leyen emphasized that clean energy represents a mid-term solution due to its cost-effectiveness, capacity to generate quality domestic jobs, and ability to bolster energy independence. She also noted that Europe produces more electricity from wind and solar sources than from all fossil fuels combined.

Yes, we are simply observing two distinct perspectives on the energy industry. But, like Trump, von der Leyen firmly asserts the importance of maintaining affordable energy prices.

The challenges facing the energy sector extend beyond the immediate concerns. Since the onset of the Ukraine invasion, Russia's support for China within the energy domain has intensified. China has emerged as a vital energy ally for Russia, significantly increasing its imports of oil, coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and pipeline gas. This evolving partnership is fundamentally altering global energy dynamics, with profound implications for energy security and geopolitical relations.

Conversely, the United States has been augmenting its exports of oil and gas with the objective of diminishing global reliance on antagonistic energy providers, particularly those from Russia and the Middle East (Iran). Currently, the U.S. holds the position of the foremost producer of natural gas and is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Nevertheless, this strategic approach introduces new vulnerabilities, including price volatility and geopolitical complexities.

Finally, given the complex geopolitical situation, a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine does not seem likely anytime soon, as highlighted by analyses of this blog over the past months.

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com

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Thanks in advance...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

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Not Angela, not...

NYT By Lisa FriedmanCoral Davenport and Brad Plumer, Jan. 21, 2025

President Trump is moving to restructure the nation’s energy future to block any transition away from fossil fuels. And he is testing the boundaries of presidential power to do it.

The orders that Mr. Trump signed on Monday would make it easier and cheaper for companies to produce oil and gas and for the government to stop clean energy projects that have been approved.

While some actions lie within his purview, others may violate federal law or run counter to judicial decisions. Among other things, Mr. Trump raised the possibility of reversing the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases, which has been confirmed by the Supreme Court, and proposed to halt funding for electric vehicle charging stations that Congress has already authorized.

“Congress passed landmark infrastructure and climate investments, and now President Trump is attempting to illegally withhold that money from American businesses, communities, and workers,” said Representative Frank Pallone, Democrat of New Jersey.

The moves also underscore a fundamental tension. Mr. Trump declared that the United States is facing an energy emergency, yet wants to block thousands of megawatts of planned wind projects that could power homes and businesses. He talks about strengthening American manufacturing but plans to withdraw assistance from the electric vehicle industry, which has invested billions of dollars in new factories across the United States.

“The phrase ‘energy emergency’ is an excuse to put in place initiatives that are hostile to the energy transition that is already taking place, to stop the progress that has been made in producing solar and wind power, electric vehicles, batteries, and renewable power,” said Robert N. Stavins, director of the Harvard University Environmental Economics Program.

By any economic measure, the United States is not facing an energy emergency, experts said. America is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, and the price of oil, about $76 per barrel, is roughly the same as the average cost over the past 20 years, adjusted for inflation. The cost of gasoline, about $3.13 per gallon, has dropped about 3 percent over the past 12 months.

But, Dr. Stavins added, “If there really were an energy emergency, then the right thing to do would be to increase supplies of all forms of energy, and to try to use energy conservation initiatives” — like stricter efficiency standards for vehicles and household appliances like dishwashers and stoves — to decrease demand. Instead, Mr. Trump’s executive orders are aimed at loosening those requirements so appliances would use more energy and cars would burn more gasoline.

The oil and gas industry donated more than $75 million to Mr. Trump’s presidential campaign and Mr. Trump, in turn, promised to shred environmental regulations to lower their costs and increase their margins. He pledged to give them virtually unfettered access to American lands and waters. At one fund-raising dinner in the spring, Mr. Trump told oil and gas executives they should donate $1 billion to his campaign and said they would recoup more than that in lowered taxes, lower costs and higher profits.

“There’s an increased sense of confidence that our costs of doing business aren’t going to rise,” said Steve Pruett, chief executive of Elevation Resources LLC, an oil and gas producer in West Texas.

Although some executives worry that increased drilling could lead to an oil glut that could lower prices and profits, most don’t want to be restricted in terms of where they can explore and drill. And many don’t want to see wind and solar power and electric vehicles flourish in a way that would lower demand for fossil fuels.

“This is a new day for American energy, and we applaud President Trump for moving swiftly to chart a new path where U.S. oil and natural gas are embraced, not restricted,” said Mike Sommers, the president of the American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group.

While former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. made the fight against climate change a priority and worked to steer the United States away from fossil fuels, the burning of which is heating the planet, Mr. Trump is intent on a sharp U-turn.

His definition of energy is limited almost entirely to fossil fuels, although he makes exceptions for hydropower, geothermal and nuclear power. One executive order said that the phrase “energy resources” was defined as “crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, the kinetic movement of flowing water, and critical minerals.”

There was no mention of solar panels, wind turbines or battery storage, which are three of the fastest-growing sources of electric capacity in the United States.

Chris Wright, a fracking executive who is Mr. Trump’s choice to lead the Energy Department, summed up the position of many Republicans when he said in 2023, “There is no climate crisis, and we’re not in the midst of an energy transition, either.”

Pressed by Democrats at his Senate confirmation hearing last week, Mr. Wright clarified that he believed climate change was “a global challenge that we need to solve.” He told lawmakers that he supported all forms of energy, including renewable sources, but that fossil fuels would continue to dominate energy systems for some time.

Still, experts point out that, around the world, renewable energy and electric vehicles are increasingly playing an essential role in the global economy.

In the United States last year, solar panels and wind turbines produced more electricity than the nation’s coal-fired power plants for the first time ever. In China, sales of new electric vehicles have outstripped sales of new gasoline-powered cars. In California, roughly 25 percent of new cars sold are now electric.

“The transition is already underway,” said Steven A. Cohen, director of Columbia University’s master’s degree program in Sustainability Management. “We are seeing more than the beginnings, and lots and lots of movement in the direction of renewable energy around the world.”

The new Trump administration’s efforts to stop it “is symbolic politics,” Dr. Cohen said. It might slow it down for the duration of Mr. Trump’s four years in office he said, “but in the long run, it won’t stop it.”

Renewable energy companies, however, worried about short-term disruptions and sought to cast themselves as the answer to Mr. Trump’s call for lower energy costs.

“A freeze on investing in the technologies we need to power our grid and vehicles threatens our ability to lower costs, create energy abundance, and win the race for global energy dominance,” said Heather O’Neill, president of Advanced Energy United, a trade group whose members include wind, solar and battery firms.

The president has ordered that federal agencies stop spending money approved by Congress when it passed the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which together pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy and electric vehicles. The order appears aimed at stopping the government from distributing funds to manufacturers of electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels and other clean energy, even if grants or loans had already been approved and binding contracts were signed.

“At the end of the day, the federal government has entered into a legal agreement with these recipients,” said Zealan Hoover, who directed the implementation of Inflation Reduction Act programs at the Environmental Protection Agency under the Biden administration. “An executive order does not give the agency magic power to ignore properly implemented laws and regulations.”

Another executive order raises the possibility of revoking or altering offshore wind leases after companies had already received them. Before terminating or amending existing wind leases, the Trump administration would review existing permits to see whether there were any environmental reasons to revoke them.

Mr. Trump’s order “expressly states that the administration may terminate or amend existing wind energy leases, and we think there may be sufficient authority to do so,” said Timothy Fox, a managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, a consulting firm.

But experts said that other directives were vulnerable to legal challenges.

For example, by declaring a national energy emergency, Mr. Trump is claiming the authority to bypass environmental laws like the Endangered Species Act in order to speed up approvals for drilling, mining, pipelines or other facilities for oil, gas or coal.

Patrick Parenteau, an emeritus professor of environmental law at the Vermont Law School, said the law defines an emergency as an imminent threat to life and property.

“These emergency provisions are for disasters like what is happening in the Palisades,” Mr. Parenteau said, referring to the fires raging through Los Angeles. “They’re not for ‘because I want to drill, baby, drill’,” he said.

Whether Mr. Trump’s actions survive could depend on the federal courts, where hundreds of Trump-appointed judges could hear cases.

“Litigation is guaranteed,” said Jody Freeman, the director of the Harvard Law School Environmental and Energy Law Program and a former Obama White House official. But, she added, the Trump administration “may say ‘we’re prepared to roll the dice.’”

Mr. Trump has also directed federal agencies to eliminate the “social cost of carbon,” a little-known but powerful metric used by the government to defend the cost of environmental regulations. It refers to the economic harm caused by drought, floods, fires and other events made worse by climate change.

The Biden administration had calculated the cost at $190 per ton of carbon dioxide and used that number to defend the cost to industry of limiting carbon dioxide from tailpipes and smokestacks. The executive order signed by President Trump on Monday said the calculation was “marked by logical deficiencies, a poor basis in empirical science, politicization, and the absence of a foundation in legislation.”

Richard Revesz, who helped set the cost under the Biden administration, said the executive order was irrational. “Literally nothing within that paragraph makes any sense at all,” he said, adding that the calculation relied on the work of William Nordhaus, the economist who developed the concept of the social cost of carbon.

“How could you call the reliance on the work of a Nobel Prize winner a poor basis in empirical science?” Mr. Revesz said.

Abigail Dillen, the president of Earthjustice, an environmental group, called Mr. Trump’s executive orders “completely out of touch” for a president who wants the United States to dominate the future.

“Perhaps the biggest race for the future is who will command clean energy,” Ms. Dillen said. “Even if you want to see more drilling, if you’re in the majority of Americans, you also want to see clean energy move forward.”

Rebecca F. Elliott contributed reporting.

Germán & Co 1/21/25 Germán & Co 1/21/25

Oil Giants Dip Their Toes into the Electric Deep Waters…

Indications of vertical integration are emerging in the energy sector.

Amidst this energy transformation, data centers are emerging as pivotal players. As major energy companies reach new heights, traditional oil and gas firms are strategically maneuvering through a landscape ripe with opportunities, driven by the surging global demand for energy. With environmental concerns and technological innovations pushing the envelope, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is not just a trend—it’s an imperative.

———————————-

In a virtual tête-à-tête, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged with Chinese President Xi Jinping, emphasizing their united front in fostering a fairer, multipolar world order. “Together, we bolster stability in global matters,” Putin declared, as broadcasted by Russian state media. Their collaboration is seen as a crucial stabilizing force on the international stage.

—————————————

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy took the stage at the World Economic Forum in Davos, urging Europe to break free from energy dependency. “No nation should rely solely on one energy supplier, especially not now,” he asserted, hinting at the need for Europe to ramp up its long-term energy strategies, even as President Trump promises to boost energy exports.

———————————

And Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, laid bare the stark reality of Europe’s energy landscape. Before the onset of Putin’s aggression, Europe was heavily reliant on Russian energy—45% of its gas and 50% of its coal came from the East. This reliance, once seen as a bargain, turned into a vulnerability when the gas taps were turned off. In a swift response, Europe slashed its dependency on Russian fossil fuels by an astonishing 75%, now sourcing a mere 3% of its oil from Russia and cutting out coal entirely.

However, this newfound freedom came at a steep cost. Households and businesses are grappling with soaring energy bills, and the quest for competitive pricing remains a pressing challenge.

Workart by Germán & Co is fully owned.

Indicators of vertical integration are expected to emerge…

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Going deeper…

Talks with President of China Xi Jinping…

Vladimir Putin held talks, via videoconference, with President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping.

President of Russia, January , 2025,12:30 PM,-Ogaryovo, Region

“We jointly support the development of a more just, multipolar global order, and work to ensure indivisible security in Eurasia and the world as a whole,” Putin told Xi in remarks carried by Russian state TV. “Joint efforts by Russia and China play an important stabilizing role in global affairs.”

Zelenskiy Says Europe Must Secure Energy Independence…

January st, 5. Ukrainian Presidentodymyr Zelenskiy emphasized that Europe must take greater measures to ensure that no single country is dependent on a sole energy supplier, "especially not." In a speech at the World Economic Forum's annual in Davos, Switzerland, Zelenskiy, "President Trump is going to export more energy but Europe needs to step up and do more long-term work." (Source: Bloomberg)

Davos 2025: Special Address by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission

Jan 21…

The third foundation is energy. Before the start of Putin’s war, Europe got 45% of its gas supplies and 50% of its coal imports from Russia. Russia was also one of our largest oil suppliers.

This energy appeared cheap, but it exposed us to blackmail. So when Putin’s tanks rolled into Ukraine, Putin cut us off his gas supplies.

And in return we substantially reduced our dependency on Russian fossil fuels in record time. Our gas imports from Russia went down by roughly 75%. And now we import from Russia only 3% of our oil, and no coal at all anymore.

But freedom came at a price. Households and businesses saw sky-high energy costs and bills for many are yet to come down. Now, our competitiveness depends on getting back to low and stable energy prices.

Data centres represent a critical aspect of this transformation…

As significant energy corporations continue to achieve unprecedented milestones, traditional oil and gas companies strategically navigate a sector where they enjoy specific competitive advantages: the rapidly expanding global demand for energy. Due to environmental concerns and technological advancements, the shift from fossil fuels to renewable electric power sources has become increasingly unavoidable.

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com

————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Thanks in advance...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1881752977699975480

Not Angela, not...

Oil Majors Flirt With Electricity

As power generators such as Vistra soar, oil-and-gas giants are dipping their toes into a business where they have some natural advantages…

The Wall Street Journal, by Jinjoo Lee, January 21, 2025.

Artificial intelligence has suddenly made electricity a hot commodity. No wonder major oil companies want a piece of it.

Both Exxon Mobil XOM -0.66%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Chevron CVX -1.43%decrease; red down pointing triangle said last month that they are talking to potential data-center customers on deals to supply natural-gas-fired power paired with carbon-capture technology. Exxon is working on a power-plant design with at least 1.5 gigawatts of capacity—enough to power more than a million homes. TotalEnergies TTE -0.61%decrease; red down pointing triangle, which has a power business, last year bought 1.5 GW of natural-gas-fired power plants near Dallas and Houston in Texas.

Exxon and Chevron have shied away from the wind and solar business for good reason: They have no experience in it and the expected returns are too low. But gas-fired power seems like a natural fit.

Major oil companies have plenty of experience in building and operating natural-gas-fired power plants to support their own energy-intensive operations, such as refining, natural-gas liquefaction and petrochemicals. Exxon said in its latest corporate update that it has developed 5.5 GW worth of power projects since 2001. Major oil companies might, in some cases, have more recent experience building power plants than large independent power producers: Many of them haven’t built power plants from scratch since the early 2000s, notes Hugh Wynne, co-head of utilities and renewable energy research at SSR.

Major oil companies also are able to move fast—something tech giants value. They can site power plants near the source of fuel—near their own oil and gas fields—and sell electricity directly to data centers without needing to connect to the grid. And oil companies have lots of experience building off-grid power to support operations in far-flung places. That means they can bypass the lengthy process of connecting to the grid or building out a pipeline. In fact, it would be a natural fit for places with a lack of pipeline capacity—such as the Waha hub in Texas—where natural-gas prices often turn negative.

Another advantage: giant balance sheets and prodigious cash flow from their oil-and-gas business and disciplined spending. Investors would rather get cash returns than see major oil companies invest vast sums in oil and gas projects but could be open to investment in growth markets. Ultimately, this means major oil companies can fund power projects cheaply and quickly compared to raising project-level financing. Their scale should also come in handy when negotiating with equipment providers or engineering contractors.

Of course, the big question for major oil companies is whether returns from the power business are enough to meet their high hurdles. TotalEnergies’ integrated power segment, which also includes wind and solar, generated a return on average capital employed of 9.8% in 2023 compared with 18.9% for the overall business. Its goal is for the power business to reach returns of around 12% by 2028, which would be equivalent to TotalEnergies’ oil-and-gas returns when Brent crude prices are around $60 a barrel—about 25% cheaper than they are today.

The return profile will ultimately depend on what major oil companies’ power exposure looks like. TotalEnergies’ integrated-power segment includes wind, solar and gas-fired power, as well as gas and electricity trading, for example. It still is unclear how much Exxon expects to get out of the power-generation business itself: It sees power plants as a means to expand the carbon-capture and sequestration business. “We don’t bring a lot of value creation to the power generation step in and of itself,” said Chief Executive Darren Woods in the company’s latest corporate update.

There are a few ways major oil companies might be able to squeeze out higher returns. One is if they can negotiate hefty premiums with tech companies for speedy access to off-grid power. Amazon.com and Talen Energy’s regulatory snag last year showed that siphoning electricity from grid-connected power will come with roadblocks. Fast access to a new, off-grid power plant removes those potential headaches.

Adding the ability to capture the carbon and bury it could command an extra premium, though the technology hasn’t yet been proven at scale. There are generous subsidies for the technology under the Inflation Reduction Act. Carbon-capture technology has been used with some success at coal-fired power plants, but it hasn’t been deployed at a commercial scale for natural-gas-fired power plants, according to Wynne of SSR.

Another option would be to indirectly benefit from data centers’ higher power demand by owning power plants that connect to the grid in deregulated markets such as Texas, California or PJM Interconnection. Those are markets where power-plant owners can profit from electricity price volatility. Plenty of power-plant owners have been burned by that volatility, but major oil companies are used to cyclical risks and have the balance sheets to weather them. TotalEnergies follows this model, selling about 30% of its electricity production to the wholesale power market without customer contracts.

The world’s energy demand is inevitably moving from hydrocarbons to electrons. Power-hungry data centers could very well help major oil companies stay relevant.

Germán & Co 1/20/25 Germán & Co 1/20/25

Glory, glory, hallelujah!

A symphony of history unfolds in a heartbeat…

On this brisk day in the heart of the District of Columbia, the grand Capitol building became the stage for a momentous occasion—the inauguration of the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump. Beneath the iconic dome, a marvel of architecture that has stood since the early 19th century, the rotunda exudes a sense of majesty and purpose. This hallowed space, a beacon of democracy for 237 years, serves as the "symbolic and physical heart" of the Capitol, making it the perfect backdrop for such a significant event.

As the air crackles with excitement, the navy's chorus—a vibrant ensemble of young sailors from diverse backgrounds—takes the spotlight. Dressed in sharp uniforms, their faces beam with pride and enthusiasm. When they begin to sing, their heavenly voices blend together, filling the air with the powerful refrain of "Glory, glory, hallelujah!" Each note reverberates, weaving a tapestry of unity that embodies the spirit of a nation coming together in celebration.

On this historic day, which also honors the legacy of Martin Luther King Jr., the atmosphere is thick with expectation. The newly sworn-in president stands nearby, a look of deep satisfaction and hope illuminating his features as he witnesses the pages of history being turned alongside his predecessor.

While American democracy may have its flaws, it remains a testament to the principles of governance that uphold the rights of its citizens. In today’s world, the United States reaffirms its position as a leading nation, especially when contrasted with one-party regimes that stifle dissent and lack the mechanisms for peaceful power transitions. Recent global events have served as a stark reminder to dictators everywhere about the true nature of democracy.

With a focus on previously raised concerns, the new president launches into what might be the most surprising announcement of all: a revival of the combustion automotive industry, empowering individuals to choose their preferred technologies. In the energy sector, the administration reiterates its support for oil and gas, rallying behind the slogan "Drill, baby, drill," while also suspending the Inflation Reduction Act and opting out of the Paris Agreement. The president’s agenda also touches on migration, the rebranding of Mexico, the fentanyl crisis, and the complexities of Panama’s relationship with China regarding the Panama Canal.

Interestingly, the president seems to sidestep the ongoing turmoil between Russia and Ukraine, a potential flashpoint for his administration. Why, you ask?

Because his backing of the U.S. oil and gas industry directly challenges Russian interests. This strategy underscores the Trump administration's intent to unleash a flood of oil and natural gas onto the global market, wielding it as a geopolitical weapon.

Let’s not overlook the precarious position Russia found itself in after the Cold War—a nation grappling with the remnants of a failed state and widespread poverty. Some might trace this cycle of hardship back to the era of Catherine the Great, continuing through the Soviet period, where despair was a constant companion for the Russian people. This is why President Vladimir Putin (Russia=China) aims to replicate this strategy: to inundate the world with the vast gas reserves of Eurasia. A catastrophic collision…

Gazprom, often viewed through the lens of its core business—gas—has evolved under Putin’s leadership into a pivotal tool for the Russian government, influencing both the economy and international relations. (Gazprom, "An instrument of Russian economic and foreign policy." Rodrigo Sánchez Andrés, 2005, Spain).

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"I Was Saved By God To Make America Great Again…

A night melody in an instant…

Amidst the biting chill that enveloped the District of Columbia today, the inauguration of the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump, was generously hosted within the magnificent central rotunda of the Capitol building. This majestic space, nestled beneath the towering and historic dome—an architectural masterpiece completed between 1818 and 1824—radiates grandeur and significance. The rotunda, a symbol of the enduring democratic spirit that has flourished for 237 years, stands as the "symbolic and physical heart" of the Capitol. What a marvellous moment!

The atmosphere swells with anticipation as the navy's chorus, a vibrant tapestry of young sailors hailing from a mosaic of cultures and backgrounds, takes centre stage. Clad in crisp uniforms, their faces radiate enthusiasm and pride. As they begin to sing, their angelic voices intertwine harmoniously, proclaiming with heartfelt fervour, "Glory, glory, hallelujah!" Each note echoes through the air, infusing the surroundings with a palpable spirit of unity that underscores the essence of a nation coming together.

On this momentous day dedicated to Martin Luther King Jr., the visionary who dared dream of a brighter America, the air is thick with anticipation. The newly inaugurated president stands close by, a look of profound contentment and optimism gracing his face as he watches history being written alongside his predecessor.

While American democracy is not without its imperfections, it nonetheless represents a form of governance that exemplifies democratic principles. In contemporary times, the United States has reaffirmed its status as a prominent nation, particularly in contrast to one-party dictatorships that lack the mechanisms for power transition and the fundamental rights of citizens to express dissent. Recent events have provided a poignant reminder to dictators globally regarding the true essence of democracy.

The newly inaugurated president has directed his positive messaging towards previously highlighted concerns. He commences with what may be perceived as the most unexpected announcement, the revitalization of the combustion automotive industry. This initiative will ultimately allow individuals to determine their preferred technological choices. In relation to the energy sector, the administration has reaffirmed its commitment to the oil and gas industry, encapsulated by the slogan "Drill, baby, drill," alongside the suspension of the Inflation Reduction Act. President Trump also moves to exit the Paris Agreement. The president's new political agenda included discussions on migration, the renaming of the of Mexico, the fentanyl crisis, and issues concerning Panama and the influence of China on the Panama Canal.

Notably, the president has chosen to overlook the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is likely to become a significant point of contention for the Trump administration.

Why? ….

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

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Not Angela, not...

Image by Germán & Co is fully owned via Shutterstock.

Because…

The president's support for U.S oil and gas sector, which places him in direct opposition to Russian interests. The illustration above highlights the gravity and consciousness surrounding the Trump administration's strategy to unleash a torrent of oil and natural gas onto the global stage, wielding it as a tool of geopolitical power.

Let’s not forget the dire straits Russia faced following the Cold War (1991)—a nation grappling with the shadows of a failed state and widespread poverty. Some might argue that this cycle of suffering has deep roots, tracing back to the days of Catherine the Great and persisting through the Soviet era, where the Russian Empire kept its people in a state of despair. That is why President Vladimir Putin (Russia=China) seeks to achieve the same objective: to flood the world with Eurasia's vast gas reserves. A train wreck…

... Gazprom has often analyzed from its core business perspective, i.e., gas. However, during the Putin era, it is acquiring a relevant position within the set of instruments available to the Russian government to intervene in the economy and the country's relations with the outside world. (Gazprom, "An instrument of Russian economic and foreign policy." Rodrigo Sánchez Andrés, 2005, Spain).

A man who feels betrayed by the West…

Lieutenant Colonel Vladimir Vladimirich (Platov) Putin, a former agent of the KGB, served as a spy in Dresden, located in the now-defunct German Democratic Republic, from 1984 to 1990, during the latter stages of the Cold War. He ascended to the position of supreme president of the Russian Democratic Federal Republic. President Putin twenty-three years, has cited Ukraine's initial efforts to pursue NATO membership as the principal rationale for the Russian invasion that commenced on February 24, 2022.The leaders of the alliance have consistently emphasized that the decision regarding membership rests with each European nation. However, NATO's eastward expansion has particularly provoked Putin, who asserts that Secretary of State James Baker and other Western officials assured Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990—during the period when a unified Germany joined NATO—that the alliance would not extend "one inch eastward."

George Kennan, the architect of the "containment" policy towards the Soviet Union, would likely have comprehended Putin's response. In 1997, Kennan articulated that "expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post–Cold War era." He further warned that such a decision could exacerbate nationalistic, anti-Western, and militaristic sentiments within Russian society; negatively impact the evolution of Russian democracy; revive Cold War tensions in East-West relations; and steer Russian foreign policy in directions contrary to Western interests.

Putin contends that Russia is entitled to a sphere of influence in its "near abroad." Despite Kennan's insights, he failed to persuade President Bill Clinton or his advisor on Russia, Strobe Talbott. Additionally, the assurances provided by Secretary Baker and NATO leaders lack the binding nature of a treaty or formal agreement. Nevertheless, Putin maintains that the West betrayed Russia during the post-Soviet era, as many Eastern European countries subsequently joined NATO. This perceived betrayal is a significant factor motivating his current aggression.

However, this alleged betrayal does not equate to a breach of a formal agreement, a violation of which Putin himself has committed. By signing the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in 1994, the Russian Federation pledged not to threaten or employ military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Consequently, Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal and joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear state. It is now facing the repercussions of its trust in Russia to uphold its international obligations.

The Imperial Dream…

President Vladimir Putin is never going to give up dreaming of making Russia an Empire again…

Putin’s nuclear warnings: heightened risk or revolving door?

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist By Stephen J. Cimbala, Lawrence J. Korb | March 28, 2024

In his State of the Nation address February 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued one of his most explicit warnings about the danger of nuclear war in Ukraine and noted that Russian strategic nuclear forces “are in a state of full readiness” and able to hit targets in the West. In addition, Russian military files from 2008 to 2014—leaked recently to the Financial Times—seem to suggest that Russia’s threshold for nuclear first use is lower than Western military experts had assumed. Some 29 classified Russian military documents include discussions of war gaming and reportedly identify operational thresholds for the first use of so-called tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons. Commenting on the unusal dump of secret Russian documents, Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, said: “They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means.”

Coming on the heels of a suggestion by French President Emmanuel Macron that the option of sending NATO ground forces into Ukraine was under discussion within the alliance, the leaked documents on Russian nuclear first use seem both timely and significant. On the other hand, in previous statements about Russian military doctrine for deterrence and possible nuclear employment, many Russian officials have stressed that nuclear weapons would only be used in response to a nuclear attack on Russia or its allies, or in cases of threat to the survival of the regime and nation posed by a war with conventional weapons. In response to the leaked documents, a Putin spokesperson commented: “The main thing is that the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons is absolutely transparent and is spelled out in the doctrine. As for the documents mentioned, we strongly doubt their authenticity.”

Regardless of the authenticity of these documents, references to the possibility of Russian nuclear first use in Ukraine cannot be treated as idiosyncrasies or departures from precedent. Putin himself has, on numerous occasions since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine in February 2022, reminded NATO and the world that the nuclear option remains available should Russia choose to use it. He has also noted, in this regard, Russia’s superior numbers of non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons compared to the US tactical nuclear weapons deployed in other NATO countries.

Observers of varying backgrounds have put forward explanations for Putin’s saber rattling, all of which suggest the Russian president hopes, through nuclear threats, to achieve some current or future tactical edge in his country’s continuing face-off with Ukraine, the United States, and NATO. All that reasoning, however, cannot erase the dangerous reality: Any Russian first use of tactical nuclear weapons would create unprecedented conditions that could easily lead not to a regional Russian advantage, but to a wider nuclear war that would decimate Russia and its leadership (not to mention the rest of the world).

Why is Russia making nuclear threats? Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a variety of commentators have put forward at least five explanations for Putin’s propensity for nuclear saber rattling. First, some contend that Putin is bluffing. This is the argument of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, among others. Zelensky feels that Putin’s nuclear diplomacy is designed to intimidate NATO into backing off from its support for Ukrainian sovereignty and independence. Others in and outside of Ukraine are more fearful of attacks with conventional weapons on Ukrainian nuclear power plants—and the residual effects of such strikes on public health, infrastructure and climate—than an actual Russian nuclear first use.

A second explanation for Putin’s nuclear threats is that they constitute a probe. Russian leadership is, as it were, taking the temperature of the United States and NATO, to see their reactions. This presents a dilemma for American and NATO European leaders. If they overreact to Putin’s intimidation, they appear fearful and potentially vulnerable to nuclear blackmail. If they simply ignore his comments about nuclear war, they may come across as lacking in awareness of the risks of escalation as fighting continues.

A third perspective on Putin’s nuclear rhetoric sees it as a response to Russia’s political and military setbacks since the war began in February, 2022. The initial objective of Russia’s so-called Special Military Operation was the prompt defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces and the abdication or surrender of its government, replaced by a Russian puppet regime. Instead, Russia found itself bogged down in a protracted war that has been extremely costly in both personnel and resources—hence the threat of nuclear weapons use, if the situation worsened. Putin has been dissatisfied with the performance of Russian armed forces on more than one occasion, and the weird attempt at a putsch by the erstwhile Wagner group created a temporary sense of chaos in the military chain of command. Wagner has since been scattered to the winds, and Russia’s military position relative to Ukraine has improved in the aftermath of the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive of the summer and the fall of 2023. Moreover, Russia’s superior numbers of available and potential military personnel and war-supporting industrial resources, relative to those of Ukraine, create the potential for an endless stalemate with outcomes favorable to Russia. But the situation remains uncertain, and so the nuclear saber-rattling continues.

A fourth perspective on Putin’s nuclear diplomacy asserts that he is laying the predicate for escalation to nuclear first use if unexpected battlefield reverses threaten to destabilize Russia’s operational-tactical position for the defense of important objectives. NATO support for Ukraine provides that county not only with military hardware such as tanks, armored personnel carriers, long range missiles and antimissile systems, and the like, but also with the “software” of warfare, including C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) assistance with navigation, warning, special operations, and strategic deception. On more than one occasion, Ukrainian brainpower has outmaneuvered Russian muscle. But the Russians are learning fast and have upped their game significantly since the embarrassing blunders of 2022. Moreover, Russian armed forces have demonstrated in training exercises superior understanding of the extreme complexity of modern airland battle and its potential risks and costs. They are also aware of the difficulties in operational-tactical maneuver on a nuclear battlefield.[4]

A fifth possible interpretation of Putin’s propensity for nuclear rhetoric is that it reflects the reasoning of some Russian military and political thinkers about the management of escalation toward favorable outcomes by the manipulation of risk. According to this line of reasoning, nuclear first use is one point on a continuum of coercion that extends from the lowest point on the conflict spectrum up to the crossing of the threshold from conventional into nuclear war. Prominent Russian analyst Sergei Karaganov’s essay, “A Difficult but Necessary Decision,” argued that a Russian tactical nuclear first use somewhere in Europe might be necessary to shock NATO back into its senses and concede to Russia’s view of the situation in Ukraine.

Still, it is clear that many experts within Russia are not aligned with Karaganov’s high-octane nuclear chest-thumping. For example, Ivan Timofeev, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council and a widely published academic, noted that Karaganov’s approach “underestimates the Western elites’ determination to climb the escalation ladder with Russia, and, if necessary, ahead of it” and “overlooks the possibly catastrophic consequences for Russia itself.” According to noted military theorist Dmitry Adamsky, Russia offers a cross-domain cocktail of conventional war-fighting and nuclear deterrence options. Crossing the nuclear threshold would most likely occur when Russia felt that its nonnuclear escalation options had been exhausted and its nuclear rhetoric had thus far proved futile. Even then, prior to actual nuclear first use, a “muscle-flexing” phase of gradually increasing “strategic gestures” will be used to communicate resolve and capability to climb the escalation ladder, Adamsky writes.

The limits of nuclear threats. The preceding discussion focuses on a Russian decision for conventional war or nuclear escalation without reference to the possibility of a Russian-Chinese coordination of tactics and strategy in regional wars. US deterrence and defense requirements for a simultaneous Russian and Chinese regional aggression assume a greater need for forward-deployed forces and power-projection capabilities than hitherto. The final report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States warned that US objectives must include “effective deterrence and defeat of simultaneous Russian and Chinese aggression in Europe and Asia using conventional forces” and that, if existing conventional forces were inadequate to this objective, US strategy would have to be adjusted to increase reliance on nuclear weapons “to deter opportunistic or collaborative aggression” in the other theater.

One should be cautious, however, in estimating the sizes and capabilities of future Russian and Chinese nuclear forces. Nor can it be assumed that the current rapprochement between Russia and China will be everlasting or apply to all issues of military significance. China and Russia have a history of border conflicts and Cold War disagreements, and China’s world historical view is somewhat apart from Russia’s.

William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, has provided a concise description of the possible roles for non-strategic nuclear weapons in Russian military strategy: “deterring unwanted conflicts; coercing adversaries; shaping the battlefield for planned conflicts; controlling escalation within conflicts to protect the Russian homeland; preventing outside powers (read: the United States) from intervening in its conflicts; and ensuring that it prevails in war.”

Notwithstanding the rationale, the decision to move from nuclear deterrence to nuclear first use in Europe or Asia would be a world-historical marker—and not one of progress. The firebreak between non-strategic and strategic nuclear warfare has never been tested under exigent conditions, and indeed, part of the deterrent efficacy for tactical nuclear weapons lies in their potential coupling to strategic nuclear war. Putin’s assertive nuclear rhetoric is strategically unhelpful and politically dangerous.

In this ever-shifting landscape of uncertainty, we send our warmest wishes for a peaceful night to you and to ourselves…

Germán & Co 1/19/25 Germán & Co 1/19/25

The Energy Crisis Is Knocking At Our Door. And Natural Gas Is Emerging As The Leading Fuel…

"Como de agua de borrajas" is indeed a rich expression, illustrating how some efforts can dissolve into insignificance. You've shared a detailed and fascinating look into the world of energy management and the shifting dynamics within the industry.

Workart by Germán & Co is fully owned.

“Como agua de borrajas” = “Come to nothing”…

'Como de agua de borrajas' is a Spanish expression with two meanings. The first one is that things that were necessary pass without trace. What a pity. The second is that the unimpressive thing that happens happens. What a disgrace. That says…

On May 24, 2023, Chester, the Official Manager for Generation and Energy Management Networks at Energy Central had an impressive reputation score of 1,376,225. Matt has been a member of the Energy Collective Group since 2011, during which he has contributed 12,764 items that have collectively received 2,154,507 views. Notably, he participated in an interview with me as part of the "Welcome to New Expert" series, which spotlighted the newly appointed expert at The Collective in an Energy Central Power Perspectives™ Expert feature.

"Gone are the days when energy news was niche and only for those working and trading in the industry. Now, when there's significant news in the world of utilities or oil and gas companies, that news makes mainstream headlines. And that shift is with good reason, as the constant developments in energy are now more than ever critical to assessing the state of the economy, international geopolitics, and our everyday way of life.

Because of that, keeping tabs on the latest conversations shaping the energy industry is more important than ever, but it might also take more time than ever. But when we have experts in the community who can sift through the news and highlight for you what's most timely, impactful, and worth your time, that benefits everyone. And that's the task that Germán Toro Ghio has taken, even before being added to our Energy Central Network of Experts.

Germán is the CEO at Germán & Co., and you'll likely recognize the work he's already put in by sharing the most notable and critical international energy news stories with our community.

Matt Chester: Thanks for agreeing to be one of our experts, Germán. Why don't we start by you introducing yourself and your background to our community? What is your experience leading to this point in the energy industry, and what is your role today?

Germán Toro Ghio: In a world that has changed and where bad news has turned into a nightmare, it is challenging and tiresome to talk about oneself. The world has changed so much that it is becoming increasingly difficult to envisage that we will ever be the same again. How we live, work, and relate to each other has been altered forever, and we try desperately to adapt to the new reality. Here, we must be very careful, especially with trends.

That said, I was born in Santiago, the capital of southern Chile. I am a professional photographer, but I have been involved in communications since I began working for the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

I would say I reached the electrical sector by accident. In 2000, I became the public relations and communications manager for the Spanish company Unión Fenosa in its subsidiaries in Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic. I assumed the Corporate Vice-Presidency of Communication of AES Dominicana in the second half of 2004 until January 2018 since this has been an advisory position for AES and other sector institutions.

For two decades, I have travelled through the industry's genesis in all its areas, thus creating a life in which I feel passionate about the sector. My participation in the natural gas promotion strategy has been crucial, starting with learning the product, its transportation methods, regasification characteristics, and types of markets where gas is commercialized, with particular emphasis on the differentiation of the NYMEX price in the European market. In terms of marketing, I've created more than 70 advertisements to promote natural gas and the electrical industry.

MC: You are very plugged into how news in the energy industry impacts the wider world, and we thank you for sharing those insights with our community. Why do you think tracking energy and oil news is so critical at this point? Is there sufficient coverage in this area?

GTG: The point is not whether the sector's coverage is sufficient. I will try to answer the question with a reflection I wrote a few days ago: Although the human being is the result of the fusion of male and female gametes, two people are inevitably needed for procreation. However, due to this dual nature and the fact that we build our lives within a tribe, humans are inclined to become selfish, possessive, and jealous of their territory, which takes them further away from their beginnings. We are so entrenched in our small territory that we forget about global analysis. That is the great danger.

MC: We are no doubt in unprecedented times geopolitically when it comes to the oil and gas sector, between the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to OPEC influence to the U.S. and its allies trying to counter all that amid economic uncertainty. What should members of the Energy Central community, entrenched in the utility sector, be doing to prepare for how the coming years may play out?

GTG: Wow, that's quite a thought-provoking question. It reminds me of those lengthy and arduous corporate strategic planning sessions, where we'd often explore the most improbable and absurd scenarios to fulfil our due diligence. Sadly, we now know that some of these scenarios have become a reality with disastrous consequences for the global economy and humanity. Reflecting on these events, we must remain transparent and critical in our analysis. One of these scenarios resulted from a grave political mistake regarding essential facilities and infrastructure for the energy sector; the other health echo is still shrouded in mystery and speculation. It serves as a sobering reminder of how easily our world can crumble and how crucial it is to make wise choices that put everyone's safety and well-being first.

MC: What are the current news stories in the energy sector that have you most concerned for the coming years? And on the other hand, where do you see the most significant reason for optimism in the energy industry ahead?

GTG: I am concerned about the trends and the hasty decisions. And here, I don't want to discuss new technologies. Since all are welcome, what cannot be forgotten is that the sector requires firm and reliable power and a constant fuel supply. If we can be optimistic, it is that politicians have learned their lesson; for example, in the case of Europe, which could not depend on a single pipe and a single supplier, that was a tragic error.

—-In summary, our intention was to emphasize the importance of exercising caution regarding sudden regulatory changes.

Last year, wind and solar produced more electricity in Europe than fossil fuels for the first time…

On October 15, 2024, in light of the significant expansion of solar energy, we have composed following article to comprehensive context the sudden regulatory changes that have occurred in the past, as well as to serve as a alert. “Could a tax on sunshine be on the horizon? (https://energycentral.com/c/gn/could-tax-sunshine-be-horizon)

Now, President Donald Trump is not only favouring the extraction of the immense quantities of solid fuels lying in the North American subsoil but also ensuring a 'secure energy' supply for the growing demand almost ad infinitum that today's societies require, as well as securing the massive supply of water and electricity for the artificial intelligence centres that proliferate at the speed of light on the face of the earth.

What is happening today? What will happen in the coming days?

As the World Warms, Davos Braces for Political Drama…

To bolster the natural gas sector, President Trump is anticipated to issue an executive order that will provide robust verbal endorsement for natural gas exports and terminate the Biden administration's year-long suspension on issuing new permits. However, this order is expected to implement limited modifications, specifically allowing current export permit holders who have yet to commence construction on their projects to extend their timelines, as indicated by sources familiar with the order's provisions.

Additionally, Trump intends to declare a national emergency upon assuming office. Nevertheless, individuals privy to the administration's plans, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential matters, suggest that this declaration may serve more as a rhetorical device than a formal emergency declaration.

Should Trump pursue the legal avenues necessary to declare an emergency, the implications for enhancing U.S. energy production remain uncertain. Such a declaration would activate certain powers under existing legislation, allowing for the suspension of air pollution regulations and the elimination of minimum comment periods for specific proposed rules and regulations.

Furthermore, on his first day in office, Trump committed to opening vast tracts of land for oil exploration. This includes rescinding the Biden administration's prohibition on future oil drilling across 625 million acres of federal waters, primarily located along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, and reopening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration by energy companies.

“Como agua de borrajas” = “Come to nothing”…

At last, we arrive at the 'Come to Nothing' chapter, which encompasses the peace talks between Israel and Hamas, the ongoing saga of Russia and Ukraine, and the quest for a political resolution to the chaos in Venezuela. Yet, amidst the turmoil, we find a glimmer of optimism in our guest essayist Michelle Casey’s piece: Building a Greener Future: Steps to Launching a Sustainable Construction Business. Wishing everyone good fortune and robust health on this journey!

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com

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Thanks in advance...

Today…

As the World Warms, Davos Braces for Political Drama

A new U.S. president’s promise to expand fossil fuels that is at odds with global ambitions to combat climate change will be a topic of discussion at the World Economic Forum.

New York Times by David Gelles, January 17, 2025

Building a Greener Future: Steps to Launching a Sustainable Construction Business

By Michelle Casey

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1880950892150866333

As the World Warms, Davos Braces for Political Drama

A new U.S. president’s promise to expand fossil fuels that is at odds with global ambitions to combat climate change will be a topic of discussion at the World Economic Forum.

New York Times by David Gelles, January 17, 2025

As world leaders and chief executives made their final preparations to attend the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, fires in Los Angeles sent shock waves across the financial world.

Images of America’s second-largest city aflame were a visceral reminder of the growing threats posed by climate change. Insurance companies were girding for billions of dollars in losses. Hollywood was warning of disrupted production schedules. Cities around the globe were re-evaluating their vulnerabilities.

And the economic and political leaders headed to Davos were bracing for a week’s worth of discussions about how to adapt to a warming world while confronting two new realities: The world is the hottest it’s ever been, and Donald J. Trump will once again be president of the United States.

The heat is now inescapable. Last year was officially the warmest in recorded history. Each of the 10 hottest years on record has come in the past decade. This week, the World Economic Forum identified extreme weather as one of the top global risks.

And Mr. Trump, too, will be unavoidable in Davos, even if he is not there in person. (He is expected to give a speech in a virtual appearance on Thursday.)

“Trump is a magnetic force that does not escape Davos,” said Marc Benioff, the chief executive of Salesforce and a fixture of the annual gathering. “Davos will only be talking about one thing, which is Donald Trump as president of the United States and what it means for the world.”

What it means for the world remains to be seen. Even before he takes office, Mr. Trump is injecting a new level of uncertainty onto the global stage by roiling longstanding alliances and raising fears of new trade wars with his threat of steep tariffs.

Yet the implications for a second Trump administration on the climate are more straightforward.

Mr. Trump has called for a rapid expansion of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal. He has pledged to roll back investments in clean energy that the Biden administration has prioritized. And he has said he will pull out of the Paris climate accord, an international pledge to try and limit global warming.

Will Trump and Davos Herald a New World Disorder?

“It is certainly not helpful if the U.S. backs away from the Paris process and from climate goals and from multilateral cooperation on these things,” said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “That has an impact in the rest of the world’s ability to step up and increase ambition.”

The priorities of the incoming administration will inevitably shape the dialogue in Davos. Last year, climate was on the back burner at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. This year it will likely be the same, despite the efforts of some longtime environmental advocates.

“I’m going to be doing my best to make sure that climate is a big part of the focus,” former Vice President Al Gore said in an interview. “But many of those who attend Davos will feel torn. They’re trying to make sense of all these changes in the geopolitical environment. They’re trying to get a better grip on how fast generative A.I. is going to continue advancing. They’re worried about the Chinese economy. And they are looking for any clues to how they should interpret some of the hot statements that Donald Trump has been making.”

Mr. Gore said he expected Mr. Trump to unleash a flurry of executive actions on his first day in office, including many that will target environmental protections.

“The fact that that first day is also the first day of Davos will make it interesting to say to say the least,” Mr. Gore said.

Mr. Benioff was more optimistic that Mr. Trump would prove willing to work with companies and other countries to tackle environmental issues.

Five years ago in Davos, during the final year of Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Benioff worked with the president to concoct a plan to plant one trillion trees.

This year, he said, he was hoping to enlist Mr. Trump in an effort to protect the world’s oceans. Maritime temperatures around the globe have been inexplicably hot for more than a year now, bleaching corals and baffling scientists.

While humans have no easy way to dampen ocean heat, Mr. Benioff said it was also vitally important to enact new measures to reduce pollution and protect sea life.

“You have to find the issues that Trump will support,” Mr. Benioff said, adding that “fossil fuels are not the only environmental issue.”

Focusing on the need to reduce fossil emissions, he said, was a “moral hazard,” distracting from a broader range of concerns, including protecting nature and the oceans.

“I hope that oceans are something that we can get bipartisan support for,” he said.

Mr. Benioff said his efforts to work with the Biden administration on such an effort were rebuffed, and that he was holding out hope that Mr. Trump would be a willing partner.

“I tried very aggressively with the Biden administration,” Mr. Benioff said. “They failed to come in and support the oceans aggressively, and they showed very little interest in doing so. However, I have a case for optimism that Trump will support it.”

But climate change won’t be addressed with piecemeal solutions. Instead, scientists have for decades maintained that the only way to halt runaway global warming is to drastically reduce the amount of planet-warming gases humans spew into the atmosphere each year.

Most of those emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels, which still account for the vast majority of the world’s energy production. And while the overall amount of renewable electricity is rising swiftly, global emissions are not yet falling.

Instead, as overall energy demand increases, and new technologies like artificial intelligence demand even more electricity, the amount of fossil fuel production is rising as well.

How the United States responds in a moment like this matters. If the incoming Trump administration were to accelerate its efforts to produce clean energy, the rest of the world might be more inclined to follow suit. But if the United States doubles down on fossil fuels, that could set a dangerous precedent.

“U.S. leadership is important,” said Nili Gilbert, the vice chairwoman of Carbon Direct, a company that helps corporations lower their emissions. “Other people say, ‘Well, if a country like the U.S. isn’t doing this, why should we?’”

Some regions are more likely than others to continue efforts to ramp up solar and wind production even if the United States backs away from its climate goals.

For the last several years, during the war in Ukraine, the European Union has been trying to wean itself off Russian gas.

“I think the E.U. will look to stay true to its course,” Ms. Gilbert said. “This is an opportunity for them to stick to what they’ve committed and look to double down.”

Last year, wind and solar produced more electricity in Europe than fossil fuels for the first time.

China, too, shows no sign of backing away from its efforts to embrace solar energy and electric vehicles. China is both the biggest installer of solar panels and the biggest exporter of panels and parts.

Mr. Benioff said he was also optimistic that relations between Washington and Beijing would improve under Mr. Trump, despite the saber rattling, trade disputes and tensions surrounding the sovereignty of Taiwan.

“I expect a much better relationship between the United States and China,” Mr. Benioff said, adding that he believed that China would continue to pursue its climate goals.
“They are on their way to being, I think, the first country that will be truly renewable,” he said. “They’ll be a massive leader of solar and wind and the deployment of these renewable technologies, and hopefully they will shutter their coal plants.”

While China is indeed embracing solar energy, it is also the world’s largest consumer of coal, which is among the dirtiest fossil fuels.

“There’s a lot of momentum behind clean energy, and that’s great, but not nearly enough to achieve our goals,” Mr. Bordoff said. At the end of the day, it will take coordinated efforts by nations around the globe, including the United States, to truly drive down emissions.
“We need stronger government policy,” he said.

Companies are also walking back their climate goals. Two years ago, Davos was teeming with corporations touting their environmental, social and governance — or E.S.G. — bona fides. That term became shorthand for a commitment to reducing emissions, as well as other priorities, such as diversity goals.

But over the past year, after a pressure campaign from Republicans in the United States, many companies have shied away from E.S.G. targets.

“Trump is a part of this, but there’s a much bigger E.S.G. reality check,” Mr. Bordoff said. Instead, he said, “everything is going to be about A.I.”

Corporate leaders are giddy with enthusiasm about the prospects for artificial intelligence. In addition to increasing productivity, many say that A.I. may improve energy efficiency and help turbocharge the development of renewable power.

At the same time, powering the A.I. revolution is requiring huge amounts of new energy, much of it powered by fossil fuels. By 2028, data centers could account for as much as 12 percent of the nation’s electricity, according to a new report backed by the U.S. Department of Energy.

“There’s the amount of energy A.I. is going to need, and then there’s the use of A.I. as a tool in the energy sector, and these are competing forces,” Mr. Bordoff said. “But on balance, I’m optimistic that A.I. is going to do more good than harm to the energy transition.”

That is the sort of faith in markets that has defined Davos for decades, and it’s as true today — even with Trump and the rise of A.I. — as it ever was.

“Presidents change, but our values don’t change,” Mr. Benioff said. “We’re still focused on the same things. And you have to look for the opportunities based on whichever way the political world is swinging.”

*David Gelles reports on climate change and leads The Times’s Climate Forward newsletter and events series. More about David Gelles

Building a Greener Future: Steps to Launching a Sustainable Construction Business

By Michelle Casey

The demand for environmentally sustainable buildings is rising as more individuals and businesses prioritize eco-friendly living and working spaces. Starting a green building business offers a unique opportunity to meet this demand while contributing to a healthier planet. Whether you're driven by a passion for sustainability or seeking a profitable niche in construction, understanding the essential steps and strategies is key to success. This article explores how to launch and grow a business focused on green building, with insights on planning, execution, and scaling sustainably.

Mastering Green Building Regulations

In the fast-paced world of green building, staying informed about environmental regulations and certifications is key to success. Programs like LEED, offered by organizations such as Green Business Certification Inc., provide a framework for sustainable construction. Understanding these certifications helps you navigate the complexities of the industry.

Navigating the Eco-Friendly Building Materials Landscape

Pursuing further education can provide invaluable insights and tools to enhance your entrepreneurial journey. Advanced studies in areas like business administration, marketing strategies, or management principles equip you with knowledge to streamline operations and develop impactful outreach initiatives. The flexibility offered by online programs allows you to balance your studies with the demands of running a business, making it easier to take advantage of the benefits of an online business degree. This dual approach ensures you can implement what you learn in real-time, fostering both personal growth and professional development.

Navigating the Eco-Friendly Building Materials Landscape

When constructing environmentally sustainable buildings, assessing the local availability and cost of eco-friendly materials is essential. The sustainable construction materials market offers a variety of options, but high production costs can be a barrier. Despite this, the growing demand for green building practices encourages more developers to invest in sustainable materials. By researching local suppliers and comparing costs, you can make informed decisions that balance budget constraints with environmental responsibility.

Incorporating Innovative Water Management

Implementing innovative water management strategies is crucial for sustainable urban growth. Technologies like water recycling and rainwater harvesting can significantly reduce reliance on traditional water sources. For instance, wave-powered desalination plants offer a sustainable way to produce fresh water. Decentralized systems for reusing greywater in households can also lower infrastructure costs and improve drought resilience, supporting the broader goal of sustainable urban environments.

Integrating Advanced HVAC Systems for Sustainable Building Success

To create environmentally sustainable structure, consider incorporating energy-efficient HVAC systems. Technologies like variable refrigerant flow (VRF) and geothermal heat pumps offer precise temperature control and utilize the earth’s stable temperatures for heating and cooling. These systems not only reduce energy consumption but also qualify for tax incentives, making them a financially sound choice for green building projects.

Navigating Sustainable Building Codes

Understanding local building codes is essential when focusing on green construction. These codes can either support or hinder the use of sustainable technologies. For example, California’s 2024 building code updates prioritize reducing embodied carbon. By participating in local committees and advocating for sustainability experts, you can influence the development of codes that promote eco-friendly building practices.

Navigating Funding for Green Building Ventures

Identifying key funding sources is crucial for supporting your green building initiatives. Various levels of government offer grants, tax credits, and loans for eco-friendly projects. The Environmental Protection Agency’s searchable database is a valuable tool for exploring potential tax credits and guidelines. By leveraging these resources, you can reduce the financial burden of sustainable construction, making eco-friendly practices more accessible.

Building a business in environmentally sustainable construction is not only a step toward professional success but also a meaningful contribution to global sustainability efforts. By following a clear plan, embracing innovative strategies, and staying committed to eco-friendly practices, you can establish a thriving enterprise that stands out in the industry. As your business grows, the impact of your work will extend beyond profits, shaping a future where green building is the standard for healthier communities and a sustainable world.

Germán & Co 1/18/25 Germán & Co 1/18/25

Arctic Blast Forces Venue Change for Trump’s Inauguration Due to Fears of the Infamous “Buchanan Grip” Outbreak…

In a twist of fate, President Donald Trump's inauguration has found a new home within the warm embrace of the Capitol rotunda, all thanks to a biting Arctic chill that has gripped the nation. This marks a historic moment, as it’s the first time in forty years that the swearing-in ceremony has been held indoors! With temperatures dipping to a brisk 20°F, the decision was made to ensure the comfort and safety of everyone in attendance.

Now, let’s take a whimsical detour into history and revisit the notorious "Buchanan Grip." This strange affliction struck President James Buchanan and his guests during his inauguration in 1857. Known also as the National Hotel disease, it unleashed a wave of unpleasant symptoms like severe diarrhea, vomiting, and fever. While some speculated about a nefarious assassination plot, today’s experts suggest a far less dramatic cause: the hotel’s faulty sewage system was likely to blame for this unfortunate outbreak.

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On other hands, he Inflation Reduction Act is set to face —-dramatic—- changes… Solar and wind energy have been the main beneficiaries of subsidies, which many deem a waste of resources. However, innovative technologies are worthy of support. The return of Donald Trump promises to shake up U.S. energy and climate policy once again. The era of climate alarmism and green industrial strategies is being replaced with a focus on energy dominance. Trump’s campaign has been clear about his intentions to dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act and boost America’s hydrocarbon production. Yet, transforming the nation into a global energy powerhouse will require more than just ramping up oil and gas output.

Workart by Germán & Co is fully owned.

President Donald Trump's inauguration has been relocated to the cozy confines of the Capitol rotunda, all thanks to a frigid Arctic blast sweeping across the nation. This is a rare occurrence, marking the first indoor swearing-in ceremony in four decades! With temperatures plummeting to a brisk 20°F, the decision was made to prioritize the comfort and safety of all attendees.

Now, let’s take a moment to reflect on the infamous "Buchanan Grip." This peculiar ailment plagued President James Buchanan and several guests during his inauguration back in 1857. Also dubbed the National Hotel disease, it unleashed a torrent of symptoms including severe diarrhea, vomiting, and fever. While some whispered of a sinister assassination plot, modern-day experts lean towards a more mundane explanation: the hotel’s shoddy sewage system was likely the culprit behind this unfortunate outbreak.

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

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Thanks in advance...

Today…

The mysterious illness that plagued a presidential inauguration

America became obsessed: Was a fatal sickness called the “Buchanan Grip” an assassination attempt? Or just the result of a disease-ridden hotel?

The Washington Post By Petula Dvorak, today

Save the Inflation Reduction Act (in Part)…

Solar and wind account for the bulk of the subsidies, which are a waste of money. But promising new technologies deserve support…

WSJ by Ted Nordhaus and Alex Trembath, January, 15, 2025.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1880566102339817886

The mysterious illness that plagued a presidential inauguration

America became obsessed: Was a fatal sickness called the “Buchanan Grip” an assassination attempt? Or just the result of a disease-ridden hotel?

The Washington Post By Petula Dvorak, today

The inaugural parade of 1857, on a March day that was surprisingly warm, celebrated President-elect James Buchanan with something new to Washington parades: floats.

There was the “Goddess of Liberty Car” drawn by six horses, complete with a woman dressed as a goddess, and a 50-foot flagpole.

Then a massive replica of the frigate USS Constitution, built at the Washington Navy Yard, rolled down Pennsylvania Avenue with sailors dangling from the ship’s faux rigging.

The 1857 inaugural parade for President James Buchanan included floats for the first time, including a replica of a ship. (Library of Congress and Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper/Library of Congress)

But Buchanan, smiling tightly amid all the pomp, was hiding a roiling sickness.

He was staying at Washington’s posh National Hotel. And he and most of his entourage that slept there the night before were in various stages of gastrointestinal distress, shaking and pallid. Within days, hundreds of people gathered for the inauguration of the 15th president would have the same symptoms. At least 30 of them would die of it.

“We were somewhat fearful that Mr. Buchanan might be seriously embarrassed during the inaugural ceremonies from the effects of what was then known as the National Hotel disease,” his nephew James Buchanan Henry wrote years later.

The president-elect was so unsure that he would be able to make it through his inaugural address that day that he asked for a naval surgeon to stay by his side.

He had no idea what was happening to his body. But political Washington had its suspicions.

“The opinion is becoming very general that the sickness at the National Hotel in Washington, which commenced about the date of the inauguration of President Buchanan, was the result of a deliberate and fiendish attempt to poison the President and his nearest friends!” the Pittsfield Sun concluded in a May 7 article.

We were a divided nation on the brink of Civil War. Buchanan had eked out a victory after a rancorous election. Not widely beloved, a Northerner who was deeply sympathetic to the South and to slavery, Buchanan was an enigma who confounded and frustrated abolitionists.

It wasn’t preposterous to surmise the crippling illness that felled him and his inner circle was an assassination attempt.

“Some people were absolutely convinced that Buchanan had been poisoned,” said Kerry Walters, a retired Gettysburg College philosophy professor who wrote a compelling account of the illness and the months of speculation it generated: “Outbreak in Washington, D.C.: The 1857 Mystery of the National Hotel Disease.

Everything pointed to the National Hotel, a grand building at the corner of Pennsylvania Avenue and 6th Street NW, designed by a British architect and known for terrapin dinners, rare wines and a prestigious clientele.

Buchanan and his entourage had it booked for the inauguration, and it was to host one of the preinaugural balls.

He had stayed at the hotel in January 1857 and become sick then, too. The D.C. Board of Health was invited to visit.

“The members of the Board of Health from the Fourth Ward, and the Commissioner of Health, visited the National Hotel, and examined thoroughly all parts of the building, and they are happy to state that they can discover at present no cause that can produce disease, and that there is no need of apprehension among the guests or strangers,” the commissioner told the Evening Star in February.

The March 4, 1857, inauguration procession for James Buchanan stopped at the National Hotel on the way to the White House. (Library of Congress and Frank Leslie's illustrated newspaper/Library of Congress)

Buchanan decided to return to the hotel for his inauguration. The general manager was an old acquaintance from back home in Pennsylvania, and Buchanan wanted to give him a vote of confidence — even though he suspected it was the hotel’s soup that made him sick. He was careful to eat nothing but crackers this time, Walters wrote.

Still, the president-elect’s symptoms returned — with a vengeance. His entourage also got sick again. Within days, members of Congress, journalists and VIPs in town for the inauguration were consumed by the same mysterious illness.

It became a hot story that newspapers chased. They called it “The Buchanan Grip.”

Buchanan’s nephew and personal secretary, Elliot Eskridge Lane, was also “seized by the demon,” the National Era wrote.

He was also one of the first who died, and he “had been suffering slightly with the symptoms which have marked all the cases of disease contracted at the National,” his obituary said.

The next day, the Baltimore Sun reported that a “gentleman who died in Pennsylvania from disease contracted at the National Hotel shows a deposit of arsenic in the stomach.”

Walters said he couldn’t find any evidence substantiating the arsenic claim, that it was “most likely purple speculation.” But that fired up the conspiracy theorists.

Walters said he was struck by the parallels today.

“I’m amazed at the prevalence, not only in 1857, but really throughout all of American history of conspiracy-thinking, conspiracy-mongering,” he said.

There were inquiries and investigations. The victims were almost all male. Was it in the wine? The ladies weren’t drinking wine.

Many guests reported an odious stench of sewage in the hotel’s lower floors. That wasn’t an unusual smell in 1857 Washington.

National Hotel was on the corner of Pennsylvania Ave. and 6th Street NW. (Library of Congress and John Rubens Smith/Library of Congress)

“When James Buchanan took the oath of office, there was no sewage network, no centralized garbage collection and only the initial stages of a public system of running water,” Walters wrote in his book. “The privies of homes, hotels and government buildings discharged their contents into open fields or stagnant ponds, many of which were immediately adjacent to the structures themselves.”

Slaughterhouses dumped offal in the open, residents threw slop into alleys, pigs and cattle roamed the streets. Horses — and their manure — were everywhere.

But other hotels and buildings had raw sewage problems, so that couldn’t be the cause of the illness felling the guests at the National.

The hotel hired Thomas Antisell, a Smithsonian Institution chemist, to investigate. He analyzed the soup, the milk and the water, according to the Alexandria Gazette.

An editor from the New York Day Book whose entire family was sickened speculated that poisoned rats got into the hotel’s water tanks. He thought they were eating food “cooked in water impregnated with poisoned rats,” according to a March 17 story in the Detroit Free Press.

A Washington City subcommittee investigated and concluded that there was no way that rats could have squeezed into the water tanks.

By March, investigators came to another conclusion — it was “miasma,” a contagion that was transferred through the air via gas or vapors coming from the sewage. The hotel began throwing out some of its luxe furnishings, worried they had absorbed the nasty vapors.

None of the theories panned out.

What they didn’t know before the groundbreaking research later that century of Louis Pasteur and others was that the source of the illness was microscopic particles — germs, Walters wrote.

The Scientific American was probably the closest in guessing what plagued Washington that year: cholera, delivered through the sewage.

“It is impossible to prove the sewage hypothesis beyond any shadow of doubt,” Walters wrote. “The die-hard conspiracy buff might still object that it’s impossible to prove that the National Hotel disease was caused by backed-up sewage instead of a plot to murder Buchanan.”

Buchanan recovered but was dogged by health issues for years. Walters said he was intrigued by the story because he believed the illness altered Buchanan, who was “temperamentally timid and kind of a backbencher,” pushing him to a calamitous leadership that made him one of America’s worst presidents.

The National Hotel remodeled and recovered from the illness, with ads in late December 1857 welcoming visitors back.

One of the visitors who checked in eight years after that ill-fated inauguration season put the hotel back in the news. His name was John Wilkes Booth.

Save the Inflation Reduction Act (in Part)…

Solar and wind account for the bulk of the subsidies, which are a waste of money. But promising new technologies deserve support…

WSJ by Ted Nordhaus and Alex Trembath, January, 15, 2025.

The second coming of Donald Trump will bring another head-spinning shift to U.S. energy and climate policy. Climate catastrophism and green industrial policy are out. Energy dominance is in. Mr. Trump campaigned on killing the Inflation Reduction Act and expanding America’s hydrocarbon production. But transforming the nation into a global energy superpower will require more than simply expanding oil and gas production.

The shale gas revolution has revolutionized U.S. energy, but our oil and gas reserves aren’t limitless. Domestic production has increased dramatically over the past 15 years, and by some estimates it is already past its peak.

This, combined with Mr. Trump’s focus on increasing our energy-export capacity, could soon apply upward pressure on domestic energy prices. Over the past decade, the U.S. has lifted its prohibition on crude-oil exports and reversed the direction of many natural-gas terminals intended for import. Natural-gas exports totaled around 10% of domestic production in 2024, with enough new export capacity under construction or already approved to quadruple that figure. Add to this the predicted near-doubling of electricity demand over the next decade for artificial-intelligence data centers, and you’ve got a recipe for sustained price spikes. If we want to increase our export capacity and keep prices low at home, we’ll need new solutions.

Fortunately, the U.S. has the potential to be more than a hydrocarbon superpower. We are on the cusp of breakthroughs in nuclear fission and geothermal energy, and we have world-class wind and solar resources in many parts of the country. Exploiting these opportunities can secure low domestic energy prices and reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains.

Many of these advances, however, depend on incentives and subsidies included in the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans have their sights set on killing the law—but there is opportunity to reform it without forgoing its benefits to U.S. energy and innovation. Republicans eager for federal savings will still have much to cut. Somewhere between half and three-quarters of projected Inflation Reduction Act spending over the next decade will be for wind, solar and electric-vehicle subsidies. These are all mature, cost-competitive technologies that don’t need further subsidization. Cutting their subsidies could amount to somewhere between $300 billion and $650 billion in savings.

But Congress should maintain federal incentives for promising less-mature technologies, such as nuclear and geothermal energy and natural-gas plants with carbon capture. Doing so would rebuild the bipartisan consensus for energy innovation that prevailed in congressional politics for decades.

Both parties have supported investments in energy innovation since the energy crisis of the 1970s. It proved critical to the development of drilling technology that created the shale revolution. Federal tax credits in the 1980s for unconventional oil and gas exploration were essential for the advancement of fracking technology. Modern solar and wind technology was initially developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and national labs. And federal loan guarantees during the Obama years were critical to getting Tesla rolling. Mr. Trump even approved the Section 45Q credit, a subsidy for carbon-capture and storage technology.

With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, President Biden and congressional Democrats destroyed this consensus by shifting the government’s focus to hyperpartisan climate policy. Democrats and renewable-energy advocates once promised that clean-energy subsidies would be temporary. They now propose to use them as a kind of reverse carbon tax to subsidize clean technology in perpetuity and kill the hydrocarbon industry.

Nixing these subsidies will save taxpayers money and end incentives that often end up undermining energy reliability. But doing so won’t be enough to unleash our full energy potential. Mr. Trump and Congress must also pursue far-reaching regulatory reform to the National Environmental Protection Act, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and interstate-transmission and grid-connection rules. Each is antiquated and restricts energy development.

Republicans in Congress could tie interstate-transmission and grid-connection reform to an overhaul of NEPA’s judicial review process and a streamlining of NRC’s advanced-reactor licensing. Federal tax credits for battery and electric-vehicle manufacturing and charging infrastructure should also be maintained—they will cost less and do more to bolster energy security than subsidies for wind and solar generation and EV buyers.

Many Democrats will oppose these efforts, as the climate movement still has a powerful grip over the progressive wing of the party. But more-moderate Democrats should keep in mind that, one way or another, Republicans are likely to cut many of these subsidies. In their absence, regulatory reforms will be essential for continued growth of clean energy technologies.

Mr. Trump and Congress have the opportunity to restore bipartisanship to energy policy. Their efforts would ensure the U.S. continues its ascendancy as a global superpower. They would do well to remember that no energy policy can stand the test of time without buy-in from the other side of the aisle.

Mr. Nordhaus is founder and executive director of the Breakthrough Institute. Mr. Trembath is deputy director of the Breakthrough Institute.

Germán & Co 1/15/25 Germán & Co 1/15/25

The Nord Stream sabotage caused the largest methane leak in history, equivalent to eight million cars' emissions in a year.

A recent study orchestrated by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has unveiled a startling revelation: the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions that rocked Europe over two years ago unleashed the largest human-induced methane release on the planet. The findings indicate that a staggering 485,000 tonnes of this potent greenhouse gas escaped into the atmosphere following a series of blasts beneath the Baltic Sea in September 2022—more than double the initial estimates.

In this edition, delve into our EXCLUSIVE feature: “The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Unveiled…” [link]

Shifting gears, let’s explore the genuine concerns voiced by President Trump regarding the unfolding situations in Panama and Mexico. His worries are particularly centered around the perilous Darién Gap, a treacherous jungle corridor nestled between Panama and Colombia. This notorious stretch is infamous for its daunting terrain and perilous conditions, yet it has become a crucial route for migrants yearning for a fresh start in the United States. The Darién Gap is a wild mosaic of lush rainforests, towering mountains, and marshy lands, largely untouched by civilization. However, it’s also a breeding ground for criminal activities, including human and drug trafficking. The number of intrepid souls braving the crossing has surged, with over 500,000 embarking on this daunting journey by the end of 2023. The involvement of drug cartels has turned this already hazardous trek into a lucrative venture, complicating the struggles of those seeking a brighter future.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Mexico border has morphed into a frontline in the battle against fentanyl trafficking. This synthetic opioid, far more potent than morphine and primarily sourced from China, has significantly contributed to the opioid crisis gripping the United States. A substantial portion of the illicit fentanyl flooding into the U.S. is smuggled across the southern border, often cleverly hidden within vehicles or cargo. In response, both U.S. and Mexican authorities have intensified their efforts to intercept these shipments and dismantle the intricate networks behind the production and distribution of this deadly substance. Yet, the challenge remains daunting, as traffickers continuously devise increasingly sophisticated methods to keep the flow of fentanyl alive.

Workart by Germán & Co is fully owned.

“The blast of Europe’s Nord Stream gas pipelines more than two years ago resulted in the planet’s largest human-caused release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, finds a new study coordinated by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The study revealed that up to 485,000 tonnes of methane seeped from the pipeline network following a series of explosions under the Baltic Sea in September 2022. That was more than twice as much as previously thought….

EXCLUSIVE: “The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Unveiled…

https://energycentral.com/c/og/exclusive-%E2%80%9C-dark-day-europes-energy-crisis-unveiled%E2%80%A6

What are the genuine worries that President Trump has regarding Panama and Mexico?

President Donald Trump has expressed deep concerns regarding the situations unfolding in Panama and Mexico, particularly focusing on the perilous Darién Gap. This notorious stretch of jungle, nestled between Panama and Colombia, is infamous for its treacherous terrain and hazardous conditions. Yet, despite the lurking dangers, it has become a vital passage for migrants seeking a new life in the United States. The region is a wild tapestry of dense rainforests, towering mountains, and marshy lands, largely untouched by development. Unfortunately, it is also a hotspot for criminal activities, including human and drug trafficking. The number of brave souls attempting to cross the Darién Gap has skyrocketed, with over 500,000 making the daunting trek by the end of 2023. The involvement of drug cartels has transformed this already dangerous journey into a lucrative enterprise, complicating the plight of those in search of a brighter future.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Mexico border has become a battleground in the war against fentanyl trafficking. This synthetic opioid, which is significantly more potent than morphine and primarily sourced from China, has played a major role in the opioid crisis plaguing the United States. A large portion of the illicit fentanyl flooding into the U.S. is smuggled across the southern border, often cleverly concealed within vehicles or cargo. In response, both U.S. and Mexican authorities have ramped up their efforts to intercept these shipments and dismantle the intricate networks behind the production and distribution of this deadly substance. However, the challenge remains formidable, as traffickers employ increasingly sophisticated methods to maintain the flow of fentanyl.

Spiegel: One of the Most Dangerous Routes in the World The Darién Gap Migrant Highway, Courtesy of the Mafia…

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

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From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

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The rupture of Europe’s Nord Stream gas pipelines more than two years ago resulted in the planet’s largest human-caused release of methane…

The study, led by UNEP and co-authored by Dr James France from the Department of Earth Sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London, found that up to 485,000 tonnes of methane seeped from the pipeline network following a series of explosions under the Baltic Sea in September of 2022…

Royal Holloway, University of London

One of the Most Dangerous Routes in the World The Darién Gap Migrant Highway, Courtesy of the Mafia…

The Darién Gap between South and Central America is exceedingly dangerous, but hundreds of thousands of migrants try their luck every year in an effort to reach the U.S. Now, a drug cartel has turned the jungle crossing into big business - and the refugees profit as well.

Spiegel by Marian Blasberg, January 3, 2025

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https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1879827877845229618

The rupture of Europe’s Nord Stream gas pipelines more than two years ago resulted in the planet’s largest human-caused release of methane; new study coordinated by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) finds.

The study, led by UNEP and co-authored by Dr James France from the Department of Earth Sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London, found that up to 485,000 tonnes of methane seeped from the pipeline network following a series of explosions under the Baltic Sea in September of 2022.

That was more than twice as much as previously thought.

Methane, often a byproduct of oil and gas production, causes about one-third of global warming, and whilst it only exists in the atmosphere for about a decade, it is over 80 times more effective at trapping heat than the world’s most common greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide.

The Nord Stream leak was already viewed as one of the largest human-caused methane releases in history. However, the new UNEP analysis reveals for the first time its true scope.

The leak was nearly five times larger than the world’s previous record holder, a release from the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility in the United States.

Over the short-term, the Nord Stream leak contributed as much to global warming as would have eight million cars driven for a year.

Nearly 70 scientists from 30 research organisations participated in the study, using atmospheric data, satellite-based images, marine observations, aerial measurements and engineering estimates to gauge how much methane dissolved into the Baltic Sea and then escaped into the atmosphere.

Dr James France from Royal Holloway and part of the Environmental Defense Fund Europe, helped to co-ordinate and conceptualise the study through his role as a scientific advisor to the UNEP International Methane Emissions Observatory.

He said: "The report highlights that it was an emission of global significance to the atmosphere, approximately equal to two days' worth of methane emissions from the global oil and gas industry.”
“Methane emissions are rising faster than at any time since the 1980s. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called on countries to cut releases by at least 30 per cent by 2030 to keep alive the Paris agreement goal of limiting the Earth’s temperature rise to 1.5°C.
“Ensuring that industry accurately measures and tracks their emissions will be key to monitoring mitigation efforts and enabling effective regulation designed to reduce emissions."

One of the Most Dangerous Routes in the World The Darién Gap Migrant Highway, Courtesy of the Mafia…

The Darién Gap between South and Central America is exceedingly dangerous, but hundreds of thousands of migrants try their luck every year in an effort to reach the U.S. Now, a drug cartel has turned the jungle crossing into big business - and the refugees profit as well.

Spiegel by Marian Blasberg, January 3, 2025

There they stand, like a black, cloud-covered wall on the horizon, the hills of the Darién Gap, providing an ominous backdrop to the final preparations as the first rays of sun fall on Hacienda Las Tecas. Five hundred, perhaps even people, having just rolled up their tents at this final Colombian outpost, are now gathered at a gate behind which a drug baron’s herd of cattle grazed not long ago. They silently listen to the words of a steward, who explains through a megaphone that it is an eight-hour march from here to the border of Panama, after which they will be on their own in the jungle.

As always, a pastor then climbs onto the fence to recite a prayer, his eyes closed. In the name of Jesus, the man says, don’t think of the dangers. Before us lies a day of opportunity. Before us lies the path to a better future.

Amen, the crowd murmurs.

"People, eight hours are no joke,” Javier González calls out as the gate creaks open and the group of migrants begins moving. A wiry 28-year-old with gold jewelry decorating his ears, neck and fingers, González is wearing rubber boots and a yellow vest bearing the number 66, identifying him as a "mochilero,” one of the numerous rainforest sherpas now winding their way through the crowd offering their services.
"Vamos,” he calls out to a Venezuelan man who is pulling several bags into the wilderness with his wife and three children – but the man waves him away like an insect. González grins.
"He’s acting now as if he has no money, but in three hours, when it starts getting steep, he’ll come up with something.”

If González has learned anything from his treks through the forest, it’s patience. At some point, they break. Ultimately, he’ll end up with something to carry in this odd goldrush that has gripped the Darién Gap ever since the drug mafia diversified its operations in the border region and discovered the migrants as a profitable business model. Within just a few years, the Gulf Clan, Colombia’s most powerful cartel, has transformed one of the world’s most dangerous migration routes into a global refugee highway, which generates millions of dollars each week.

González is one of several thousand employees of this jungle firm, a tiny cog in a surprisingly well-oiled machine that managed to funnel more than half a million people to the Panamanian border last year alone. And it is a service that people around the world have learned about.

As is frequently the case, the Venezuelans, who sang their national anthem at the gate as they always do, are the largest group of migrants on this October morning. They are joined by Haitians, Ecuadorians, Mauritanians, Micronesians, Afghans and Iranians. There are people from Angola, Ghana and Nigeria, fleeing from bitter poverty in their homelands, from bloody conflicts or from the effects of climate change. Men with children on their shoulders, or their dogs or their possessions. One, carrying a guitar, looks like a boy scout. Further back, a one-legged man on crutches is struggling to keep up.

While the departure routine merely marks the beginning of yet another long day’s work for González, it is a leap into the unknown for his potential clients. The Darién Gap – the 1,800-meter, rainforest covered peaks of which act as a natural barrier between South and Central America – is the most challenging leg of a several week-long journey across six countries that will, if all goes well, ultimately come to an end several thousand kilometers to the north in a U.S. asylum center.

Those who choose the overland route have little choice. They must navigate their way through this green hell, the swampy paths of which pass by snakes and scorpions. The trekkers must repeatedly clamber over sharp, slippery rocks, cling to roots on steep slopes and wade through streams that tropical rainstorms can instantly transform into raging rivers. At some point, after days in the forest, exhaustion becomes a factor, as does hunger, diarrhea and malaria.

Hundreds of those who set out on this dangerous journey in 2024 didn’t survive. Many of them simply disappeared, as though the Darién had swallowed them up. There are photos of skulls mounted on poles deep in the forest. Another image shows a skeleton lying in a riverbed, sneakers still on its feet. Such images, though, say the Colombians, come from Panama, where there are no porters and no knowledgeable guides showing the way, just plastic bags tied to branches marking the path. Where the injured and sick are left behind for lack of a doctor marching along with them to offer first aid. Where the armed gangs lie in wait for the migrants to rob, murder and rape them.

The abortion pills that international NGOs give to the women?

Those are needed in Panama.

On their side of the border, say people who work for the Gulf Clan, the journey is safe, comfortable and relatively clean, because the porters pick up garbage and the jettisoned ballast on their way back. Pants and T-shirts that are still usable are washed and made available in a clothing co-op back Las Tecas. At the most dangerous spots in the forest, there are now safety ropes or steps, and those who are hungry can take a break at one the new rest areas, for which González and others hauled in refrigerators, hotdog grills and even pool tables. Some of them have WiFi.

There is, however, a crucial detail: None of these logistical improvements are free.

The cartel operates not unlike a tourism agency. They have low-cost routes available, such as the multi-day trek starting in Las Tecas, but there are also packages for clients that are slightly better off, involving speedboats, motorcycles and horses.

"Four days in the jungle with responsible guides. All of Central America with VIP transport and guides + cell phone chip so you're always in touch. Lodging, food, safe passage 100% guaranteed,” reads one of the Facebook ads that have been clicked on hundreds of thousands of times – making it sound as if this trip is little more than a harmless outdoor adventure.

The prices vary. The quickest routes cost up to $7,000. The basic entry fee, which everyone must pay, is $350.

For less than that, nobody is allowed to enter the forest.

So what is it?

Is it human trafficking?

Is it a cynical attempt to take advantage of the desperation facing the poorest of the poor and pull every last dollar out of their pockets?

Or is it a win-win situation, as the migrant smugglers insist, pointing out that on their side of the border, there is finally a "humanitarian corridor” of the kind human rights activists have been demanding for years?

Either way, it is rather complex.

The only certainty is that hundreds of migrants continue setting off into the forest each day – people in whom nobody seems particularly interested aside from the cartel.

"I am offering a service that gets them a step closer to their dream,” González says. "So many people have told me: Without your help, I would never have made it.”

Water is sloshing into her boots. Sweat is trickling down her brow.

"Hey, chica! Backpack,” González says to her, but the woman doesn’t even look up.
"Are you okay?”

Two years ago, González says, he lost his job with a security agency and has been working as a porter ever since, though there are a couple of rules he must adhere to. He is not allowed to charge more than $50 for each piece of luggage and he is forbidden from carrying more than 50 kilograms. The rules come from the top to ensure that he doesn’t overexert himself and that there is enough work for the others. After two weeks, a different team of porters takes over.

"Everything is evenly distributed,” he says, as if the cartel were a communist party.

For González, the job is an opportunity. After more than 300 shifts, he has managed to accumulate some savings and is hoping to use the money one day to fulfill his dream of opening a barber shop. The idea of simply joining his clients on their northward trek is one that occurs to him less and less often, he says.

A bit later, he points to a couple of tree trunks on a hillside, lying in the mud like huge matchsticks. "We cut them down,” he says, so that sunlight can dry out the ground more quickly. A few bends later, the first large clearing appears, with music coming from wooden shacks and rice with grilled chicken for sale.

Acandí, a 45-Minute Tuk-Tuk Ride from Las Tecas…

There is no map documenting the network of winding jungle pathways through the Darién Gap, secret trails that originated at a time when there were no nation-state boundaries. Indigenous peoples used them to maintain contact with relatives on the other side of the Darién. At some point, smugglers picked up on this ancient knowledge and began transporting cigarettes, alcohol and medicines through the jungle. In the 1980s, when the drug baron Pablo Escobar began flooding the U.S. market with cocaine, it became a pipeline for narcotics.

The Gulf Clan materialized later…

It emerged out of a paramilitary group that was contracted by large property owners to fight leftist resistance groups like FARC, which used the forests surrounding the Gulf of Urabá as a refuge during the civil war. At the beginning of the millennium, when Colombian President Álvaro Uribe officially disbanded these private armies, some fighters went underground and founded the nucleus that would later become the cartel.

Today, the Gulf Clan exerts total control over the border region. Having forcibly expelled numerous small farmers, it now rules over a vast expanse of stolen land. It operates illegal goldmines and coca plantations in addition to charging customs duties from other cartels who smuggle their drugs through the region. Corrupt politicians and police officers provide protection for the clan’s operations and thousands of armed fighters ensure unconditional loyalty in the municipalities.

Nothing can be done without the cartel, whose local representatives frequently finance weddings and doctor’s visits.

It is an invisible monster that consumes everything in its path, even an old codger like Juan Gómez, who you will face at the migrant shelter in Acandí when you ask to meet the boss. Acandí, a sleepy village on the Gulf of Urabá, is something of a hub where those migrants on the budget route through the Darién Gap must check in.

"The boss, she's nervous."

Juan Gómez, organizer

After paying their admission fee, they receive a bracelet – just like at a music festival.

Gómez, a chain-smoking journalist who has reported from the region for more than 20 years, introduces himself at reception as something like a press spokesman. He says he’ll put in a good word but cannot promise anything. The government ombudswoman for human rights has apparently announced a visit in the next few days.

"The boss, she’s nervous,” he says.

It will be the first ever visit from a government representative.

In truth, Gómez is more than just a doorman. He is a shadow that sees everything. In the evenings, he is sitting in an empty restaurant on the beach of Acandí and stirring the powder of the instant coffee he always carries with him in a small can packed away in his jute bag. A damp breeze blows in across the water as boats chug past. Acandí, which is only accessible by water, used to survive primarily on fishing, with a couple of tourists showing up during the vacation period.

"The foreigners in transit,” as Gómez refers to the migrants, were just a secondary source of income. When somebody did show up, they would take a room in a hotel and look around for a drug courier in the village to guide them through the jungle.

That sleepiness vanished in 2019 when thousands of Haitians suddenly appeared in Acandí, fleeing from the poverty and violence in their disintegrating country. Suddenly, there were days when 15 or 20 boats would show up, says Gómez. People began sleeping out in the open once the hotels filled up. There was noise everywhere, and trash. The alcohol flowed and girls in the village began offering their bodies for sale to the foreigners. A short time later, a boat carrying 32 people from Africa sank off the coast. Because there was no cold storage, the bodies were brought to the beach, where they lay in the sun for so long that many locals took to wearing masks to ward off the stench.

As a consequence, media outlets finally began turning their attention to the migration crisis at the Darién Gap. When drug investigators also began taking a closer look at the secret pathways, the cartel responded. Gómez says they had a few couriers executed who defied the order to stop their trafficking business. They then instructed boating companies to go out on strike, which led to thousands of migrants being stranded in the tourist towns on the other side of the gulf.

A short time later, the foreign minister sat down in Acandí for a roundtable discussion.

In these talks, says Gómez, the municipalities asked the government to do something. The list included a morgue, help for the hospital and money for the wastewater system, which had been overwhelmed by the crowds – but nothing happened. The chaos remained. "Our government isn’t interested in any of that,” says Gómez, before he disappears into the night.

The next morning, ahead of the visit of the ombudswoman, he sends a video showing the military pulling a well-known drug smuggler into a helicopter on the beach of Acandí. Later in the afternoon, news begins spreading that a migrant shelter employee was executed because he was allegedly pocketing some of the proceeds. The boss, Gómez writes, is stuck in meetings.

Then, in the evening, another message arrives: Come to the hostel tomorrow morning. But don’t forget: No questions about the cartel. And nothing about money.

"Welcome to the shelter,” reads a large sign next to the entrance gate where Gómez’s boss welcomes her visitor the next morning. "Come in, we have nothing to hide,” she says, a friendly smile on her face as she leads the way into the finca, which belongs to a fallen "high-risk entrepreneur,” as they call the drug kingpins here. She then apologizes for the fact that it took so long to set up a meeting. She has had, she says, a few "complex days” recently.

"And another thing before we get started: Please don’t write my name.”

What would she like to be called instead?

"Coordenadora,” she says.

Because she coordinates operations here.

The coordenadora is a plump woman in her mid-30s. She is wearing tight jogging pants with white-framed sunglasses stuck into her long black hair. As she leads the way on a tour of the facility, a young assistant tags along carrying her backpack. With the ombudswoman’s visit now over, things are rather relaxed on this morning. A few couples are huddled in the shade of a canopy. Others are charging their phones as an employee collects passports and money from a group from Angola. Afterwards, the African migrants sign a paper documenting that they have booked the service at their own risk. At the very bottom, they are asked to check a box indicating whether they have found the service to be "unsatisfactory” or "excellent.”

The shelter has toilets and showers in addition to a Western Union kiosk and a barrack where a nurse is on call 24 hours a day. When the coordenadora opens the door, she points to a cot and says that some Dariéns and Darienas have been born there. In the main building, with crocodiles carved into the wooden staircase railings, there is a kitchen where women are preparing a menu that can be purchased for $4.

A short time later, the coordenadora sits down on a plastic chair in a medical supply storeroom. An air conditioner hums. The iPhone in her lap, the latest model available, vibrates constantly as she speaks about how they eliminated the chaos and transformed it into an opportunity.

"If nobody helps us, we help ourselves,” she says.

Initially, it was important to find a site that kept the migrants out of the center of the village, she says. Then, the porters, the guides, the motorcycle, tuk-tuk and cart drivers joined forces to found a cooperative, which began working together under the umbrella of a newly established foundation. They named it "The New Light of Darién.” It is an open secret that cartel representatives pull the strings in the organization. One of the first things they did was establish a fixed price for the passage to the border, a fee which also includes the boat ride across the gulf and the half-hour ride to the camp in Las Tecas.

Whereas porters like González work on their own account, the drivers, guides and medical workers are paid out of this collective pot. The cartel’s share is also allegedly siphoned off from the foundation revenues, which has officially been registered as a non-profit charitable organization.

When you carefully ask the coordenadora whether this professionalized movement of large crowds of people might actually constitute human trafficking, she grows resolute.

"Nonsense,” she says. "These people are taking advantage of their right to migrate. They come through here whether we want them to or not. What we are doing is creating humane conditions. We are bringing them to the border, nothing more than that.”

After a brief pause, she continues.

"Where is our state? Why is it not sending helicopters to evacuate the injured from the forest? Why are our porters doing that?”

She says that they offered the state migration authorities the possibility of setting up an office in the hostel, but nobody responded. They only accepted the offer of collecting the migrants’ data and feeding it into an app. She then smiles suddenly. In contrast to the state, she says, they are at least doing something for the region, such as using their revenues to build schools in Acandí. One city quarter, she adds, is currently being connected to the sewage system. The economy is doing well, with 5,000 jobs having been created . The coordenadora says that she is a nurse herself. When the Haitians began coming several years ago, she had just lost her job at the hospital. So she bought a few pots and began cooking soup for the "Black brothers,” before she founded the first cooperative with a dozen farmers in the area.

"When I asked why she was wearing a mask, she showed me her face. Her jaw was missing. It had been shot off, she told me.”

The coordenadora in Acandí

In spring, she says, she was waiting beneath a mango tree for a trek to begin when one of the heads of the foundation took her aside and appointed her manager of the hostel.

She takes a deep breath.

Her eyes fill with tears.

"During the time that I have been here,” she says, "there have been men who started shaking and were lying dead on the ground just seconds later. One time, a beautiful princess from Venezuela was standing before me. When I asked why she was wearing a mask, she showed me her face. Her jaw was missing. It had been shot off, she told me.”

Nobody, says the coordenadora, asks how such experiences affect them.

"Instead, we are treated like criminals.”

Necoclí, 60 Kilometers by Boat from Acandí

Just once during our conversation does the coordenadora speak of money, bringing it up on her own. The logistics, she says, generate costs, which is why they are unable to offer their service for free. But they do make exceptions, she says. Last year, she estimates, they waived through around 10,000 clients who had arrived in Acandí with no money at all to their name. Around one in four migrants, she says, do not pay the full price.

José Daniel, the Venezuelan who lost his leg in a motorcycle accident after riding while under the influence, is among these "welfare cases.” On the evening prior to departure in Las Tecas, he wandered among the tables in front of the chicken stand begging for food. After taking a seat, he explained that he had spent the past few years selling sweets at an intersection in Bogotá. He left behind his possessions – a mattress and a fan – in the room that he had shared with his sister, her husband and their baby. He paid a $330 entry fee for Darién instead of the standard price of $350.

Leaving him $50 for the onward journey through Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico to the U.S.

There are rumors that women pay with their bodies if they don’t have sufficient cash. Others, it is said, are forced to carry drugs through the forest. A newspaper reported on the case of a man from China who broke his leg on the journey through the jungle. He apparently had to pay $1,000 for the porters to carry him out.

They are stories that are just as unverifiable as the profit margins earned by the cartel. Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s president, once put the number at $30 million per year. Others suspect that number might represent the proceeds of a normal month – while Darwin García, who operated the hostel before the coordenadora, crowed to the New York Times that the operation brought in more than tourism would in 50 years.

When asked where the most profits are generated in this unbridled Darién capitalism, where everything and everyone has a price tag, most people give the same surprising response: the Chinese, who tend to have a higher budget than the other migrants.

With a total of around 25,000 migrants, they represented the fourth largest group last year. And they stand out in Necoclí, a beach town located around 40 nautical miles across the water from Acandí. Striding through the busy market in their outdoor clothing to buy their survival kit including rubber boots, tent and anti-venom, they look more like package tourists. Whereas those escaping the poverty in Venezuela tend to pitch their tents on the beach, the Chinese migrants book rooms in higher quality hotels where there are signs at reception noting in Mandarin that guests can comfortably pay using the messaging service WeChat.

Necoclí is the eye of the needle through which all migrants must pass. In this small boomtown, where new restaurants and bars are opening on every corner, they meet their migrant smugglers for the first time and listen to their menu of offerings. They rest up here ahead of the onward journey, before boarding overloaded boats that speed them across the water toward the jungle, loud salsa beats blaring.

“Two speedboats up the coast, then a day of riding, one day walking and then it’s behind me."

Zhang Li, migrant from China

The small Ensenada Hotel is situated a block away from the promenade. Eight people from China are standing here in the courtyard on one October morning after arriving overnight, hanging up their freshly washed clothes. A couple of lobsters are sizzling on the grill. If you try speaking to them, they rush up to their rooms.

Zhang Li, 39, is the only member of the group willing to break the vow of silence forced upon them by their smuggler. Like the coordenadora, though, he also asks that his real name not be used. Li is worried, which is why he agreed to a meeting at a corner table in a restaurant the next day to talk about the VIP package he booked for $800.

"Two speedboats up the coast, then a day of riding, one day walking and then it’s behind me,” he says. "Not the cheapest deal available, but it seemed faster and safer to me.”

Li is a shy, smiling man with powerful hands who has trouble remembering all of the factories where he worked during his years of meandering through the provinces of China. He worked a stint in security, once served as a forklift operator and also worked in a warehouse sorting packages containing electronic parts. At the beginning of the pandemic, Li says, he moved to Chad with a group of Chinese laborers where he drove a digger on a road construction project before he was then pulled out of the country following a putsch and put to work back home in a phosphorus mine.

"I know,” says Li, "that I will be at the very bottom in L.A. as well. But I am certain that things will be better for me, even if I am just delivering food.”

China is not on the brink like the poverty-stricken dictatorship of Venezuela, but these days, it is a country whose growth model is reaching its limits. Factories are leaving the country for cheaper locations and the vast infrastructure projects that kept people employed for many years have largely been completed. The silent pact, according to which the people of China sacrifice individual freedoms in exchange for a Communist Party that continually boosts prosperity, has begun to fray – a development that began even before the pandemic, during which many citizens, locked away in quarantine, felt as though they had been left in the lurch.

Bild vergrößern

Zhang Yun with her nine-year-old daughter. Chinese migrants make up the fourth-largest group passing through the Darién Gap.

Foto: Gerald Bermudez / DER SPIEGEL

During that period, says Li, he started clicking on videos on platforms like Douyin that had managed to evade state censors. In many of these clips, labeled with the hashtag #Zouxian, other Chinese reported on their "trekking tours” through Central America.

"I thought, so you can just walk there,” says Li. As he watched, he noted down a few telephone numbers.

Snakeheads are what the Chinese call these anonymous internet contacts that guide them across the globe. In late June, his man sent him to Bangkok. From there, Li flew to Belgrade via Istanbul, where he got stuck in early July because Ecuador, his gateway to South America, suddenly began demanding entry visas.

"I feel lost. I no longer know what to believe."

Zhang Li, migrant from China

After a few days, which he spent at the airport, a new path opened up. Li flew via Amsterdam to Surinam, and from there he traveled onward by boat to Guyana. Brazil, Bolvia and Peru slid past the window of his bus – fields, bridges and border rivers where nobody bothered to check passports. Sometimes, when he had reception, Li would take a screenshot of his location on Google Maps. One image on his phone shows him in handcuffs at a checkpoint where police demanded $100 to allow him to pass, but the snakehead, he says, took care of the situation from afar.

His current problem is far greater.

His local smuggler from the cartel, who had joined their chatgroup for the first time shortly before they reached Necoclí, posted in the morning that the risk of being arrested in Panama had risen. In response, he had been forced to make security arrangements, for which each member of the group had to pay an additional $1,200. Otherwise, their journey was over.

Li puffs out his cheeks.

"The rumors are flying,” he says.

Chinese who have already crossed the Darién Gap have written in chatgroups that Chinese secret service agents were combing the camps behind the border on the search for people from China. Recently, the media in Panama reported on the first deportation flights.

"I feel lost,” he says. "I no longer know what to believe.”

The trip from China to the southern border of the U.S. cost him $27,000, all of his savings, paid out in installments. Now, he finds himself wondering what would be worse: being ripped off or trying to continue on his own from Las Tecas on foot, with no access to the secret hideouts of his smuggler, where he would be safe from arrest – relying only on his translation app, which hardly provides much assistance out in the jungle.

So what is it?

Human trafficking?

A humanitarian corridor that ceases to exist at the halfway point?

The only thing that can be said with any certainty is that those trying their luck in the Darién Gap aren’t just entangled in the thicket of Colombia’s never-ending conflict. With the porousness of the southern border having been a major issue in the U.S. presidential elections, they have also become enmeshed in American politics as well.

Whereas the Republican Donald Trump held confused speeches stoking fears about the country being overrun by murderers, pet-eaters or a covert Chinese army, the Democrats, under the leadership of President Joe Biden, sought to reduce the number of illegal immigrants by shifting the border further to the south. Under pressure from the U.S., numerous Central American countries have introduced stricter visa regulations in recent years, which is one of the reasons for the chaos that gripped towns like Acandí.

The migrants found new routes.

And those routes became longer and more dangerous.

In spring 2023, the Department of Homeland Security and the governments of Panama and Colombia signed a declaration of intent aimed at ending the "exploitation of vulnerable people for significant profit” in the Darién Gap. Panama, which received an additional $6 million, upgraded its border control agency and closed a few gaps in the fencing running through the forest. Coastal patrols confiscated several dozen boats carrying hundreds of migrants and arrested 68 VIP smugglers, who were accompanying their clients to Panama. They face up to 22 years in prison.

Beyond that, not much happened.

In August, when the first U.S.-financed repatriation flights took off, Panamanian President José Raúl Molino capitulated. It simply wasn’t possible, he said. "I can neither arrest them all nor can I force them to return.”

Those who wanted to, should carry on.

Colombia took a similar position.

After the security agencies initially arrested a few smugglers in the spring, the boat companies went on strike until the men were released. In September, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said "neither horses nor whips” would hold back the migrants. The responsibility, he said, lies with the U.S.

The fact that so many people were embarking on the journey, Petro intimated, was partly a consequence of the sanctions which had driven millions of people in Venezuela into poverty and desperation.

"In the eyes of our government, these people are leaves that are best raked into the neighbor’s garden,” said the reporter Juan Gómez one evening in Acandí. But perhaps that’s not the whole story.

Petro, the first leftist president of Colombia, entered office two years ago with the promise of bringing progress and development to historically backward regions like the one on the Gulf of Urabá. By allowing the cartel to do the work for him, he is keeping his word.

2024 again saw hundreds of thousands of migrants pass through the Darién Gap – around 300,000 of them by early September. It is unclear what will become of these people. Donald Trump, who will be sworn in for a second term as president later this month, recently promised to declare a state of emergency for the southern border of the U.S. He plans to deploy the military to take care of the mass deportations he pledged during the campaign. The illegal immigrants aren’t civilians, he says. It is an invasion.

The coordenadora already suspects that business isn’t necessarily destined to continue as usual. It is possible, she believes, that people will stop coming at some point. Which is why she believes they should begin diversifying today.

"Eco-tourism,” she says.

José Daniel, the one-legged Venezuelan, made it to Panama. After crossing the border, he says over the phone, he lost his crutches in a river. His brother-in-law carried him out of the forest.

Li, the man from China, ultimately decided to pay the additional fee after lots of thought. "Praise be to freedom,” he replies from Honduras after several days with no reception.

Germán & Co 1/14/25 Germán & Co 1/14/25

Natural gas bans have disproportionately impacted low-income and minority.

The recent bans on natural gas have hit low-income and minority communities the hardest. The Energy Poverty Awareness Center, which stands against climate legislation in Maryland, has ties to a group that receives funding from oil and gas companies.

In a piece by Maxine Joselow in The Washington Post, we witness the emergence of what could be called the Combustible Revolution. Meanwhile, the raging fires in Los Angeles remind us of the catastrophic blazes of the 1800s that ravaged our urban landscapes, hinting at an even more incendiary future ahead, as reported in The New Yorker.

Workart by Germán & Co is fully owned.

“The Energy Poverty Awareness Center, opposed climate legislation in Maryland, is connected to a group partially funded by oil and gas companies…

The Washington post by By Maxine Joselow, today

The Dawn of the Combustible Revolution…

The Los Angeles fires evoke the nineteenth-century conflagrations that devastated our cities and indicate an even more flammable future.

The New Yorker Today

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Thanks in advance...

Today…

This group says natural gas bans hurt minorities. It has gas industry ties.

The Energy Poverty Awareness Center, which fought climate legislation in Maryland, has ties to a group that is partly funded by oil and gas companies.

The Washington post by By Maxine Joselow, today

The new combustible age.

The Los Angeles fires hark to the nineteenth-century blazes that ravaged our cities—and point toward an even more flammable future.

The New Yorker, Daniel Immerwahr, January 14, 2025

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1879289358685188267https://x.com/

This group says natural gas bans hurt minorities. It has gas industry ties.

The Energy Poverty Awareness Center, which fought climate legislation in Maryland, has ties to a group that is partly funded by oil and gas companies.

The Washington post by By Maxine Joselow, today

When Maryland state lawmakers proposed a major climate bill last year, they faced opposition from a surprising figure: ex-NFL player Gary Baxter.

The former Baltimore Ravens cornerback argued that the measure, which would have banned the use of natural gas furnaces and water heaters in new buildings statewide, would raise energy costs for Black households. “Affordable energy is vital for communities of color,” Baxter wrote in testimony on behalf of the Energy Poverty Awareness Center (EnPAC), an advocacy group he leads.

What Baxter didn’t mention is that his advocacy group has ties to the natural gas industry, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post. Consumer Energy Alliance, a Houston-based organization that is partly funded by gas utilities and other fossil fuel companies, helped launch EnPAC and shape its initial agenda.

Consumer Energy Alliance has also supported the National Hispanic Energy Council, which has asserted that gas projects help lower energy bills for Hispanic households, according to the documents. The materials were obtained via a public records request by the Energy and Policy Institute, an investigative research organization that says it works “to expose attacks on renewable energy and counter misinformation by fossil fuel and utility interests.”

The findings show how the fossil fuel industry has relied on advocacy groups to persuade policymakers nationwide that its products benefit communities of color. Critics say these efforts come despite the fact that Black, Hispanic and Asian Americans are disproportionately exposed to deadly air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels, which also is driving climate change.

“The documents reveal how oil, gas and utility companies — through their membership in Consumer Energy Alliance — cynically claim to represent the interests of structurally disadvantaged communities,” said Itai Vardi, a research and communications manager at the Energy and Policy Institute. “But in reality they use these front groups as a way to obscure the harms this industry causes these communities through increasing pollution and exacerbating climate change, which hits disadvantaged people the hardest.”
Asked for comment, CEA spokesman Bryson Hull confirmed that his group helped launch EnPAC but said it was a “normal practice.”
“CEA was introduced to EnPAC representatives in 2022, and, recognizing the need for energy policy discussions in Black communities, offered to assist getting the organization off the ground,” Hull said in an email. “CEA did provide sponsorship support for a reception in Annapolis in early 2024. CEA and EnPAC have not worked together in almost eight months.”
He added: “This is literally a dog bites man story, and a blatant attempt to generate a headline about something that happens every day in advocacy.”

Democratic-leaning states have advanced more-aggressive climate policies for years, including recent efforts to cut off gas supplies to new buildings as a way to speed the transition to clean electricity. The gas industry has responded by hiring Democrats and other advocates who are better-positioned to appeal to liberal voters. Skirmishes on the state level will play an outsize role in shaping the nation’s future energy trajectory once President-elect Donald Trump is back in the White House, where he has pledged to reverse many of President Joe Biden’s policies aimed at shifting the country away from oil, gas and coal.

The recent fight in Maryland exemplifies the push and pull over how quickly the transition to clean energy should happen.

After a knee injury ended his six-season NFL career in 2008, Baxter returned to his hometown of Tyler, Texas, where he owned several fast-food restaurants, and then founded EnPAC in February 2022. But the group didn’t officially launch until January 2024, when CEA began publicizing its efforts, the documents show.

“FYI … the African American org officially launched last week. More to come. Thoughts/Ideas welcome,” David Holt, CEA’s president, wrote in an email that month to CEA’s board of directors.

CEA helped arrange EnPAC’s early focus on Maryland that month, organizing a reception with Baxter at an Annapolis hotel and inviting key state lawmakers, according to an internal memo.

“Gary spoke at length with Delegate Regina Boyce at the reception,” the memo says, referring to the vice chair of the House Environment and Transportation Committee. “She’s the most important House Member for our cause.”

CEA also sent a press release about EnPAC’s launch “to local media and to trade media inside The Beltway,” the memo says. The release listed CEA’s director of media and public relations as the press contact.

A few months later, CEA held a board meeting at a restaurant in downtown Washington where the agenda items included “NHEC & EnPAC Reports — Expanding outreach to Minorities,” according to the documents.

The National Hispanic Energy Council has disclosed its ties to CEA, saying on its website that it “will work in coordination with Consumer Energy Alliance, a leading energy and environmental advocate.” In contrast, EnPAC doesn’t mention CEA on its website or in other public materials.

Asked for comment, Baxter said in an email that while he welcomes working with fossil fuel firms, they have not dictated his group’s agenda.
“EnPAC is a standalone independent organization founded by me and is NOT a front for any fossil fuel companies,” Baxter said. “With that being said, EnPAC looks forward to working with more fossil fuel companies and any green energy companies that can show reliable and affordable energy to the American people, especially the minority communities.”

CEA does not publicize its funding sources. But the majority of its dues-paying members are oil companies, gas utilities and other firms that profit from fossil fuels, according to its public membership list. They include oil giant ExxonMobil and Maryland gas provider Chesapeake Utilities Corp.

CEA also shares most of its staff and revenue with the Houston-based public relations firm HBW Resources, whose clients include oil and gas interests, according to tax filings and lobbying disclosure forms. In addition to leading CEA, Holt serves as managing partner of HBW Resources.

“Consumer Energy Alliance is exactly what it says it is — an alliance that advocates for reliable, affordable and cleaner policies, using all forms of energy,” Holt said in an email. “If we can provide our energy policy expertise to other groups, we will jump at every opportunity to broaden the conversation we’re having.”

EnPAC’s connection to CEA isn’t its only tie to the fossil fuel industry. Airika Brunson, the vice president of EnPAC, is an official at American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a trade group for oil refiners. Lance Shepherd, a board member of EnPAC, works at pipeline company Enable Midstream Partners.

The connection between energy companies and advocacy groups for minority communities dates back nearly two decades. From 2005 to 2015, Exxon contributed more than $800,000 to the National Black Chamber of Commerce, which waged a battle against a landmark 2009 climate bill and President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan on the grounds that they would harm minorities by slowing job growth.

More recently, a group called Western States and Tribal Nations has argued that fossil fuel projects in Baja California would help Indigenous communities there. The group is run by HBW Resources, and its main financial backers are county governments and fossil fuel companies, including a gas utility building a facility in Baja.

Fight over the future of gas…

In states across the country, climate activists have pushed to ban fossil fuel use in the buildings sector, which accounts for roughly a third of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

In Maryland, which has set a goal of net-zero emissions by 2045, the Better Buildings Act ultimately did not pass either chamber of the state legislature last year. If enacted, it would have required all new buildings and major renovations in the state to meet their heating needs without the use of fossil fuels.

In practice, the bill would have prevented new homes from being built with gas furnaces and gas water heaters. These homes would have needed to use greener alternatives such as electric heat pumps and electric water heaters.

The measure would not have affected the state’s nearly 2.6 million existing housing units. It also would not have restricted other appliances such as gas stoves, which have recently emerged as a flash point in the nation’s culture wars.

In his testimony sent to state lawmakers, however, Baxter wrote that the bill could force Black households in Baltimore to spend tens of thousands of dollars on a host of new green technologies.

“While I am not from Baltimore, I spent a significant number of formative years in the city and have paid witness to the struggles of the Black community,” Baxter wrote. “... Requiring the replacement of just four major gas appliances like water heaters, furnaces, stoves, and dryers could top out at more than $26,884 for a Baltimore household.”
Baxter added that Black families spend a significantly larger portion of their income on energy costs than White families do. The bill, he concluded, would raise costs for “communities that can least afford it.”

Experts and advocates who spoke to The Post said Baxter’s claims were misleading because the bill wouldn’t affect existing homes or appliances such as stoves. They also noted that in most cases, it is cheaper to heat a home in Maryland with heat pumps than with gas furnaces. That is because heat pumps are much more efficient than gas furnaces, producing about three times as much energy as they consume. (Baxter didn’t respond to follow-up requests for comment on the experts’ statements.)

“If lower-income households in Maryland are able to switch to heat pump technology, they will benefit from lower energy bills based on my simulations,” said Yueming Qiu, a professor at the University of Maryland who studies consumer adoption of climate-friendly technologies.

At the same time, experts said, Baxter’s testimony touched on some real trade-offs inherent in the nation’s energy transition. Research does show that African Americans bear a higher energy burden because they are more likely to be lower-income and to live in older, less energy-efficient homes.

Studies also show that minority households are less likely to adopt heat pumps and other green technologies, in part because of the higher up-front costs. But these costs can be offset by generous rebates from the federal government and many states, including Maryland, Qiu said.

Richard Painter, who served as the chief White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush, called it “ethically problematic” that Baxter didn’t mention his ties to the gas industry in his testimony. But he said Baxter’s conduct probably didn’t violate the state’s ethics law, which doesn’t mandate such disclosures.

Chesapeake Utilities, a CEA member, also submitted testimony opposing the legislation and raising similar cost concerns.

“In essence, Chesapeake received indirect lobbying services from CEA — in this case via Gary Baxter’s EnPAC — in exchange for its membership in CEA,” Vardi said. “This is what makes CEA so misleading and a clear front for the fossil fuel industry: It does lobbying that serves its members without having to register as a lobbyist.”

A Chesapeake Utilities spokesman did not address questions about CEA when asked, saying that while the utility supports the “journey to a lower-carbon future,” the bill could have imposed “extraordinary costs” on consumers and businesses.

In 2023, New York became the first state to pass a law banning all gas use in most new buildings. California has also updated its building code to encourage electrification. Maryland Del. Terri L. Hill (D-Howard), who supported the Better Buildings Act, said that given the climate policy’s progress in other states, “I expect that it will come back” in Maryland.

The New Combustible Age

The Los Angeles fires hark to the nineteenth-century blazes that ravaged our cities—and point toward an even more flammable future.

The New Yorker, Daniel Immerwahr, January 14, 2025

Chicago, where I live, is a city of striking architectural uniformity. Rows of sturdy two- and three-story flats stand at attention on countless streets. Their fronts come in different colors and have idiosyncratic decorative flourishes. But approach from behind, via the alleys, and you’ll see that they’re usually made of the same stuff: Chicago Common bricks. From that vantage, whole monochromatic blocks can look as if they’ve been designed by a single deranged architect, compulsively making the same unassuming building, over and over.

There is a reason for this. In October, 1871, the Great Chicago Fire, as it became known, killed hundreds and consumed more than seventeen thousand buildings, many of them wooden. Going by current estimates, the Los Angeles fires have destroyed more than twelve thousand buildings. In 1874, another conflagration scorched Chicago’s downtown, turning forty-seven acres to ash. The city’s stylistic unity comes, in part, from the fact that so many of its homes were constructed in the period after the fires. Those bricks, required by Chicago’s post-fire building codes, shout “Never again.”

Although Chicago’s great fire was particularly horrifying, many U.S. cities have a lingering civic memory of the time when it all burned down. San Francisco has a phoenix on its flag. So do Atlanta; Lawrence, Kansas; and Portland, Maine. Detroit’s flag features a distraught woman standing in front of a city ablaze, along with the paired mottos “Speramus Meliora” (“We hope for better things”) and “Resurget Cineribus” (“It shall rise from the ashes”).

Such was life in a wooden country. North America’s immense forests made for cheap timber, and the young United States was consequently wracked by repeated conflagrations. A year after Chicago’s 1871 fire came one in Boston. Then, eight months later, Portland, Oregon. The year 1889 alone saw devastating blazes that each burned hundreds of structures in Bakersfield, Seattle, and Spokane.

The Los Angeles fires are a nightmarish glimpse of a more combustible age. They’re hard to process because it had until recently seemed that the age of infernos was over. By the twentieth century, new technologies (light bulbs, radiators, gas heat) meant that fires didn’t start as often. Safer materials and stricter zoning meant they didn’t spread as far. More hydrants and beefed-up fire departments meant that they didn’t last as long. New York City’s worst nineteenth-century fire, in 1835, destroyed some six hundred buildings. Its most notorious twentieth-century fire, at the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, in 1911, took more than a hundred lives but was limited to three stories of a ten-story building. The structure still stands, now part of N.Y.U.’s campus.

Fire has been humanity’s constant companion; our bodies evolved around it, and no recorded society has lacked it. Yet the twentieth century did much to remove fire from view. A historically astonishing, though often unremarked, feature of modernity is how relatively flameproof it has been. Our ancestors once lit large pyres and worshipped fire gods. Today, it is perfectly possible to go months without seeing flames rise higher than they do on a stovetop burner. (The Angelenos who are now watching whole neighborhoods—their neighborhoods—burn down may have never before seen a single building aflame.)

Modernity’s victory wasn’t so much in extinguishing fire, however, as containing it. More than three-quarters of energy consumed today comes from burning oil, coal, or natural gas. This happens not in the open but in boilers and combustion chambers. Like a misbehaving child, fire has been sent to its room. Out of sight, it has been going about its work of wresting carbon atoms free and streaming them skyward.

Those concealed flames, we now understand, are more dangerous than the spectacular infernos that once incinerated nineteenth-century cities. Global warming has desiccated California, which was never known for its copious water supply. When you add to this decades of misguided fire-control tactics that sought to suppress all fires rather than let combustible biomass regularly burn down, you have conditions where the slightest touch can kindle a megafire. In 2018, during a dry spell, a rancher in Mendocino County used a claw hammer to drive a concrete stake into the ground. The sparks hit dry grass and set off a blaze that, in combination with another, burned more than six hundred square miles across four counties and lasted a hundred and sixty-one days.

That 2018 fire burned largely uninhabited land. The most fire-prone homes in California lie in the exurban fringe that geographers call the “wildland-urban interface.” This has long been a dangerous place to build, and scenic Malibu has been particularly vulnerable. (In the nineteen-nineties, the historian Mike Davis, fed up with the hand-wringing over protecting luxury enclaves, laid out “the case for letting Malibu burn.”) But we’re now facing wildfires so furious that they march past the city’s edge onto its grid, toward downtown.

Three years ago, after an out-of-control grass fire in Colorado rampaged through Boulder County and burned more than a thousand structures, the journalist David Wallace-Wells prophesied “the return of the urban firestorm.” Los Angeles, which has had only 0.02 inches of rain since September, is now experiencing the worst fires any U.S. city has seen in more than a hundred years. The twentieth century’s quenching of fire now looks less like a historic victory than a temporary respite. We tried to bottle fire up, but it is spilling out.

After the eighteen-seventies, Chicagoans rebuilt their city in safer materials. Los Angeles won’t be able to protect itself so easily. When fires grow large enough, as California’s drought-powered megafires have, everything becomes fuel. Better housing stock can mitigate dangers, but the underlying problem, global warming, is systemic. Fireproofing California will take more than brick. ♦

Germán & Co 1/14/25 Germán & Co 1/14/25

Trump Takes a Stand on Wind Power…

Trump has taken a strong stance against wind power, promising that "no new windmills" will be built during his second term. He argues that wind farms thrive solely due to government support and questions why the U.S. is providing financial aid to wealthy wind developers while gas power plants don't receive taxpayer dollars.

The rift within the MAGA movement is deepening, with Elon Musk and Steve Bannon at odds over immigration policies. Musk supports easing restrictions on H-1B visas to bring in skilled foreign workers, while Bannon and other traditional MAGA supporters view these visas as a threat to American jobs. Bannon has even vowed to remove Musk from Trump's inner circle before the inauguration.

It's a fascinating and tumultuous time in American politics. What are your thoughts on this internal conflict?

Workart by Germán & Co is fully owned.

“He claims that wind farms thrive solely due to government support. And you know what? He’s got a point…

“Why is the U.S. giving welfare to wealthy wind developers when gas power plants don’t need taxpayer dollars?

By The Editorial Board Of WSJ Today

Bannon-Trump-Musk…

The rift within the MAGA movement is indeed deepening. The clash between Elon Musk and Steve Bannon has highlighted significant ideological differences. Musk, who supports easing restrictions on H-1B visas to bring in skilled foreign workers, has faced fierce opposition from Bannon and other traditional MAGA supporters who view these visas as a threat to American jobs2.

Bannon has gone as far as to publicly declare war on Musk, vowing to remove him from Trump's inner circle before the inauguration. This conflict underscores the broader struggle within the movement between the tech-savvy, libertarian faction and the more nativist, populist wing.

The Washington Post today,  Opinion by Eugene Robinson

Help us…

The enchanting vision for this blog in 2025 is on the verge of realization with the highly anticipated release of the second edition of "The Owner of Non Man Lan and Other Tales." This new chapter will present a captivating narrative exploring the complexities the human psyche, intriguingly titled: "Marilyn was told by a policeman that he was a good thief..."—a heartfelt tribute to the esteemed Nicaraguan poet, Ernesto Cardenal. We have already reached out to a senior editor at Penguin Random House in London to create a truly remarkable and distinctive book, handcrafted and perfect for an exceptional corporate gift.

Today…

Trump Speaks Truth to Wind Power…

“He says wind farms only work because of subsidies. He’s right.

By The Editorial Board Of WSJ Today

The Great MAGA Schism of 2025 is only getting uglier

War of words between Musk and Bannon shows gap between rhetoric and reality

The Washington Post today,  Opinion by Eugene Robinson

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1878993704494727416

Trump Speaks Truth to Wind Power…

“He says wind farms only work because of subsidies. He’s right.

It's certainly true that government support plays a big role in the growth of wind farms. Incentives like subsidies, tax credits, and grants help offset the high upfront costs of developing and installing wind turbines, making them more attractive to investors and energy companies. Additionally, government policies and regulations that mandate or encourage the use of renewable energy sources can create a favorable market for wind energy.

However, it’s also worth noting that technological advancements and economies of scale have significantly reduced the cost of wind power over the years. In many places, wind energy has become competitive with, or even cheaper than, traditional fossil fuels. So, while government support has been crucial, the industry's ability to innovate and reduce costs has also played a major role.

The debate about the extent of government involvement in renewable energy is complex and multi-faceted. Do you think the environmental benefits of wind energy justify the government support it receives?

By The Editorial Board Of WSJ Today

Every once in a while Donald Trump says something that shocks Washington with its blunt truth. So it was during last week’s discursive press conference when he observed that wind power isn’t economic without subsidies.

Wind farms “only work if you get a subsidy,” Mr. Trump mused. “The only people that want them are the people that are getting rich off windmills, getting massive subsidies from the U.S. government. And it’s the most expensive energy there is. It’s many, many times more expensive than clean natural gas. . . . You don’t want energy that needs subsidy.”

The media’s fact-checkers pounced and proclaimed that wind energy is among the cheapest and fastest-growing power sources. But that’s only because of rich subsidies, which were sweetened by the Inflation Reduction Act. Federal tax credits can cover 50% of the cost of building an offshore wind farm and more than 80% of the cost onshore.

Even the Biden Energy Department, in a 2023 report, estimates that power from new onshore wind farms costs more than from gas-fired plants on a per-megawatt-hour basis if you exclude subsidies. Wind with tax credits is about 25% less expensive. On the other hand, offshore wind costs two to three times more than gas power even with subsidies.

These estimates notably don’t account for the cost of backing up wind generation. Power from so-called peaker plants and batteries costs three to four times more than from baseload generators. It’s far cheaper to run gas, coal and nuclear plants around the clock than to use wind (and solar) some of the time and have to back them up with other forms of energy.

In any case, rising interest rates and inflation have rendered offshore wind uneconomic even with fat subsidies, which is why developers are canceling projects and begging for more largesse. Orsted in 2023 announced $4 billion in write-downs after walking away from two projects off the New Jersey coast.

The reality is that most wind projects wouldn’t be built without federal subsidies and state renewable mandates. The wind production tax credit was established in 1992 to boost an “infant” industry, but Republicans from wind states like Iowa, Kansas and Wyoming have joined Democrats to extend it every time it comes close to lapsing.

Democrats used a budget reconciliation trick to ensure that the wind and solar tax credits never expire by sunsetting them when U.S. emissions decline by 75% from 2022 levels. But that won’t happen before 2050 under the Energy Department forecast—if ever. Perhaps Republicans should use the same nebulous sunset when they extend the 2017 tax cuts.

It’s encouraging that Mr. Trump says he wants to end the renewable subsidies, which would reduce power-market distortions that are driving up electric rates. Perhaps he can persuade Republicans from wind states that, after 33 years of subsidies, wind power should be able to stand on its own as an adult.

Why is the U.S. giving welfare to wealthy wind developers when gas power plants don’t need taxpayer dollars?

The Great MAGA Schism of 2025 is only getting uglier

War of words between Musk and Bannon shows gap between rhetoric and reality

The Washington Post today,  Opinion by Eugene Robinson

Donald Trump hasn’t been inaugurated yet, and already two bellicose titans of the MAGA universe are waging total war — against each other.

Stephen K. Bannon, Trump’s rumpled onetime chief strategist, vowed last week in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Serra that he will “get Elon Musk kicked out” of Trump’s inner circle by the time Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20. “He is a truly evil guy, a very bad guy,” Bannon said of Musk.

And that was one of the nicer things Bannon said about the world’s richest man, who spends so much time at Trump’s side that he might be mistaken for a member of the Secret Service detail, minus the earpiece and the muscle tone.

“He should go back to South Africa,” Bannon said of the immigrant tycoon. “Why do we have South Africans, the most racist people on earth, White South Africans … making any comments at all on what goes on in the United States?” Bannon added that Musk “has the maturity of a child,” which indeed might be provable in a court of law.

Is Bannon’s rage simply over the fact that Musk has replaced him at the Mar-a-Lago dinner table? I wouldn’t discount jealousy as a motive, but there is also a substantive issue involved. Bannon, whose credentials as a MAGA warrior are genuine — he served four months in federal prison for defying a subpoena from the Jan. 6 committee — has long been a hard-liner against immigration. Musk is an equally fierce defender of the H-1B visa program that allows tech firms to bring skilled foreign workers into the country.

“The reason I’m in America along with so many critical people who built SpaceX, Tesla and hundreds of other companies that made America strong is because of H1B,” Musk declared on X last month, responding to a post critical of the program. “Take a big step back and F--- YOURSELF in the face. … I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend.”

Bannon responded on his podcast with a playground taunt of his own, telling Musk that longtime MAGA true believers will “rip your face off” if he continues to back a program that Bannon claims takes good, high-paying jobs away from American citizens.

“They’re recent converts,” Bannon said of Musk and the other tech moguls who supported Trump in the November election. “We love converts. But the converts sit in the back and study for years and years and years to make sure you understand the faith and you understand the nuances of the faith and understand how you can internalize the faith.” Musk and the others, he said, should not “come up and go to the pulpit in your first week here and start lecturing people about the way things are going to be.”

This war of words between two insufferable blowhards reveals a consequential schism in the MAGA world — and the yawning gap between MAGA rhetoric and objective reality.

It is an article of faith among some of Trump’s most loyal and avid supporters that immigration is a bad thing, period. In this view, the H-1B program is nothing more than a way for tech companies to hire foreign workers who can be paid less than American citizens and who cannot complain or quit because of their immigration status. Bannon speaks for this group when he calls for “a 100 percent moratorium on all immigration until we get this thing sorted.”

Musk and other tech leaders see the program as a way to maintain U.S. technological primacy by attracting the most creative and talented engineers from around the world. Vivek Ramaswamy, Musk’s partner in the advisory “Department of Government Efficiency,” goes much further.

“Our American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long (at least since the 90s and probably longer). That doesn’t start in college, it starts YOUNG,” Ramaswamy wrote on X last month. “A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers.”

Trump, typically, is trying to have it both ways. He sounded like Bannon during his first campaign in 2016, vowing to “end forever the use of the H-1B as a cheap labor program, and institute an absolute requirement to hire American workers first.” Then he sounded like Musk last month, telling the New York Post that “I’ve always liked the visas, I have always been in favor of the visas.” And then, with a straight face, he claimed that “I didn’t change my mind.”

Meanwhile, the Musk and Bannon factions — call them “New MAGA” and “MAGA Classic” — definitely are not changing their minds. This is ugly, and it promises to get uglier.

Germán & Co 1/12/25 Germán & Co 1/12/25

Exciting times for arms manufacturers and fossil fuel giants alike!

“What does 'America First' mean in this new chapter? The United States has always strived to maintain its position as the unrivaled leader on the global stage. However, as Donald Trump embarks on his second term, his approach to reinforcing American dominance is likely to take on a particularly self-serving twist…

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“What does 'America First' mean in this new chapter? The United States has always strived to maintain its position as the unrivaled leader on the global stage. However, as Donald Trump embarks on his second term, his approach to reinforcing American dominance is likely to take on a particularly self-serving twist…

Today…

Good news for arms manufacturers, good news for fossil fuel companies…

What ‘America First’ means second time around…

The US has long worked to ensure it has no global rivals. But as Donald Trump’s second term begins, his way of shoring up American preeminence is likely to assume an especially self-interested form…

Le Monde Diplomatique by *Michael T Klare

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1878495305001226570

Good news for arms manufacturers, good news for fossil fuel companies…

What ‘America First’ means second time around…

The US has long worked to ensure it has no global rivals. But as Donald Trump’s second term begins, his way of shoring up American preeminence is likely to assume an especially self-interested form…

Le Monde Diplomatique by *Michael T Klare

The global order president-elect Donald Trump will oversee from 20 January will be the same as Joe Biden’s in the previous days and weeks. But Trump comes to the Oval Office with a very different outlook on foreign affairs from his predecessor, and his ‘America First’ approach will in time fundamentally alter Washington’s relations with the outside world.

Unlike Biden and his team, who viewed the world as a giant chess board with friendly and hostile blocs contending for geopolitical advantage over contested areas, Trump perceives it more as giant Monopoly board, with multiple rivals competing over valuable real estate, markets and resources. Under Biden, ideology came first: democracy, compliance with the rule of law and adherence to ‘Western values’ were thought to constitute the glue of NATO and other US-led alliances. Trump says the unbridled pursuit of economic and strategic advantage should govern US foreign policy.

Summing up the Trumpian worldview, his choice for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio, declared in November, ‘We are now in an era in global affairs where responsible American foreign policy must be based not on idealistic fantasies but on pragmatic decisions that prioritize the core national interest of the United States above all else’.

Exactly what Rubio means by ‘core national interest’ is hard to say: he, Trump and others in their circle have described it in various, sometimes contradictory, ways. But at its core are the perpetuation of US global preeminence, containment of China, dilution of alliances and an emphasis on resource extraction. These four objectives should together govern every aspect of Trump’s foreign policy.

Ensuring US global preeminence has of course been the overriding goal of US foreign and military policy since the end of the cold war. The defence department affirmed in a 1992 document (later leaked to the New York Times) that ‘our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival. This…requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power’. US officials swiftly repudiated this statement, attributed to Paul Wolfowitz, then defence undersecretary, when it was made public. It has not been repeated since. Nevertheless, it encapsulates the thinking of many of those around Trump: Washington should do whatever is necessary to preserve America’s status as the dominant world power.

Revitalising US alliances…

When Wolfowitz made the statement, the US was in a much stronger position than it is today. China had not yet begun its meteoric rise to economic stardom, Russia had not rebuilt its military, and other potential rivals such as India offered no threat. But over time, America’s lead has substantially narrowed. Biden sought to overcome this by revitalising US ties with like-minded states in Europe and Asia, asserting that these alliances enhanced America’s net power.

For Trumpists, that approach signalled weakness, not strength. To ‘Make America Great Again’, the US must ensure its superiority independent of any reliance on foreign friends and allies. These efforts will be implemented, moreover, by converts to Trump’s 2.0 ‘America First’ outlook, such as Rubio and vice-president-designate JD Vance, and not the neoconservatives of the first Trump administration.

Trumpists believe maintaining US global preeminence means restoring its economic prowess – imposing stiff tariffs on all imports. In their view, globalisation and free trade have enervated the US economy by shifting critical industrial processes abroad. To restore the nation’s economic vitality, it is essential to dampen imports through high tariffs, even on goods arriving from close allies, including NATO members. Tariffs are ‘the greatest thing ever invented’, Trump declared during the campaign.

Containing China…

When Wolfowitz wrote in 1992 of the need to prevent any potential rival from ever acquiring the capacity to ‘generate global power’, no country possessed such a capacity. Today, however, China is moving ever closer to doing so. Preventing China from reaching parity with the US has, therefore, been the overarching goal since Trump’s first term.

To ensure its continued preeminence, Washington must increase its investments in advanced technologies, deny China access to American technological innovations and increase its military presence in the Western Pacific. Asian allies are invited to join the US in containing China, but not to count on its automatic support. And they must ‘contribute more to their own defense’.

This applies even to Taiwan, whose defence against possible Chinese invasion has been viewed as a cornerstone of US policy by Congress China hawks, including both Democrats like former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (whose visit to the island in August 2022 provoked a massive Chinese air, naval and missile response) and Republicans like Rubio and Michael Waltz, Trump’s choice as national security advisor. As Trump has made clear, however, Taiwan should not expect unqualified support from Washington. ‘I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,’ Trump said in a July 2024 interview with Bloomberg Businessweek.

The dilution of alliances also applies to Ukraine and NATO. As Trump and Vance have repeated, the Ukrainians will not receive further US military aid unless they agree to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia – which would almost certainly require Kyiv to renounce a fifth or more of national territory and abandon its plans to join NATO. Likewise, the Trump team has repeatedly told NATO’s European members they must contribute more to their own defence or face a sharp reduction in US support. An increase in defence spending – Trump has demanded up to 3% of GDP – could prove a boon to US arms manufacturers, which in 2023 posted record exports of $238bn.

We are now in an era where responsible American foreign policy must be based not on idealistic fantasies but on pragmatic decisions that prioritize the core national interest of the US above all elseMarco Rubio…

The people around Trump insist that defending Europe is secondary to curbing China. ‘The United States does not have enough military capabilities to go around,’ says Elbridge Colby, an assistant defence secretary in the first Trump administration and possible advisor in the second. The US cannot devote so many resources to countering Russia in Europe, he argued, when ‘the Chinese are a more dangerous and significant threat’ (6).

Trump is also obsessed with production and procurement of vital resources, determined to prolong the age of fossil fuels while ensuring the US obtains all it needs to stoke its economic and technological advancement.

He has made no secret of his intention to abandon many of the Biden administration’s renewable energy initiatives, reprioritising domestic oil and natural gas extraction. Although the US is now largely self-sufficient, Trump has an affinity with other major oil- and gas-producers’ rulers, especially Saudi Arabia and the Gulf oil kingdoms. He established close ties with the Saudi crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman during his first term, when family members, notably his son-in-law Jared Kushner, secured lucrative business deals.

Prolonging the primacy of fossil fuels…

These ties, driven largely by financial considerations and a shared antipathy to Iran, also reflect a common determination to prolong the primacy of fossil fuels. The Saudis have consistently resisted efforts to curb their consumption at international climate change meetings (most recently at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan), while Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the treaty on his first day in office.

Would Trump also seek accommodations with other fossil fuel producers, including Iran, Venezuela and Russia? Despite his hostility to the first two’s leaders and ambivalence about Vladimir Putin, he has not ruled out reconciliation with all three. A ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, as proposed by Trump, would enable him to lift many of the sanctions imposed on the Russian oil and gas industry in 2022, allowing for renewed cooperation between US and Russian energy firms.

Likewise, a new agreement with Iran on nuclear weapons would permit the rehabilitation of Iranian oil and gas fields, further contributing to global fossil fuel dominance. And one of Trump’s billionaire donors, Harry Sargeant III, has advocated lifting sanctions on the Maduro regime in Venezuela, opening up fresh opportunities for US investment in its oil industry. Such moves run counter to Trump’s repeated pledge to support Israel in its contest with Iran and his own inclination to punish Iran and Venezuela, and so may never come to pass. They do, however, reflect his penchant for deal-making.

Aims to boost mineral production…

Trump’s obsession with resources extends to critical minerals like cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements essential to high-tech industries, especially computers, electric car batteries and aerospace equipment – industries closely associated with Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and other top Trump advisors. Many of these are mined or refined in China, or sourced from Chinese-owned mines in Africa and Latin America.

A major Trump objective is to boost mineral production in the US and reduce reliance on China. However, US reserves are not, generally speaking, as pure or extensive of those found elsewhere, and bringing new mines online will prove costly and difficult (especially given the environmental risks). Hence, Trump and his associates are likely to seek increased US ties with countries with large reserves of the desired minerals, such as Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Will Trump’s decisions increase or decrease the risk of US involvement in armed conflict? The basic thrust of his foreign policy outlook would seem to suggest a reduced appetite for US involvement in overseas conflicts. Although Trump seeks to ensure continued US global preeminence, his preferred instruments are economic and technological, not military. While he may choose to brandish American military power as a means of intimidating potential adversaries, he has eschewed US involvement in future ‘forever wars’ as in Iraq and Afghanistan. And his apparent wish to enhance ties with other oil-producing countries could reduce the risk of conflict with Iran and Venezuela.

At the same time, his determination to curb China’s growth and preserve US domination of the Western Pacific could in a crisis lead to miscalculation, even war. Similarly, efforts to gain access to overseas sources of critical minerals could bring confrontation with local forces or, conceivably, China or Russia.

We cannot foresee which of these competing impulses will prevail once Donald Trump assumes office. But he is unlikely to be motivated by any of the ‘idealistic fantasies’ – respect for international law, advancement of democracy, protection of human rights – that so inspired the speeches of his predecessors, both Democrats and Republicans, with all their omissions which Palestinians, among others, have endured, especially in the last year.

*Michael T Klare is professor emeritus at Hampshire College, Amherst (Massachusetts) and the author, most recently of All Hell Breaking Loose: the Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change, Metropolitan, New York, 2019.

Germán & Co 1/11/25 Germán & Co 1/11/25

Operation ‘Just Cause’

Panama is essential to U.S. interests because of the Canal's strategic role in global commerce, with U.S. influence in the country dating back to the early 20th century. By the late 1980s, tensions escalated as Manuel Antonio Noriega, Panama's military leader, faced allegations of drug trafficking and human rights violations. His authoritarian rule and manipulation of the 1989 elections caused widespread discontent and chaos. The assassination of U.S. officer Robert Paz and attacks on American citizens led the George H.W. Bush administration to launch Operation Just Cause, aimed at protecting American lives, dismantling drug trafficking, and securing the Panama Canal while honoring treaties.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

Forewords…

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1875999065386688561

Operation ‘Just Cause’

By Germán Toro Ghio

This evening, we wish to in some exquisite jazz...

We had just arrived at our room on the top floor of a hotel in the centre of Panama City. It was a few minutes to midnight on Tuesday 19th December, 1989. Earlier, Isaac Abrahamsson, my wife’s cousins had invited us to Las Bóvedas, a jazz club in the old town, for around 8:15 PM.

We were picked up at the hotel. Slowly, we began to move to that side of the city. As we approached the perimeter of the old colonial district, we were stopped at a military checkpoint. After greeting the officer on duty, our host politely asked him:

‘What seems to be the issue, Lieutenant?

The uniformed man responded with a rigidity common to such ranks of the military:

‘The president is attending an official ceremony, sir’.

While the answer suggested nothing out of the ordinary, it meant we were unable to reach the jazz club and had to return to the modern part of the city, where we looked for a restaurant to have dinner. When we found one, I noticed that it was oddly crowded for a Tuesday.

As we made our way to the table the waiter had pointed to, Isaac Abrahamson, my wife’s cousin, greeted several people.

‘How are things?’, Isaac asked one of them.

‘Well, very well’, they replied.

As we sat down, Isaac told us about the people he had greeted.

‘Some of them are —paisanos—. Others are ministers…

Four ministers of General Manuel Antonio Noriega’s regime were at the restaurant, which meant that everything was calm. As the clock inched closer to midnight, we decided it was time to head back to the hotel.

We had been in Panama for about two weeks, and that night I felt tired. I lay in bed while my wife went through her bedtime routines. I was beginning to fall asleep when I experienced a loud explosion that resembled the sound of a bomb detonation. Morments later the phone rang. I answered immediately and recognised Isaac’s voice on the other end of the line.

‘They're invading’, he said in a desperate tone. Before he hung up, I heard another explosion. Then, there was the roar of another and another before the explosions continued unabated. It was real—Panama City was being bombed.

This is how Operation ‘Just Cause’ began, through which the Americans intended to remove General Noriega from power and imprison him. My wife and I huddled in fear on the highest floor of our hotel, the world outside a cacophony of chaos. The thunderous blasts of bombs echoed through the air, while helicopters sliced through the night with their ominous whirring. The sharp crack of machine guns punctuated the tension, and amidst it all, I could hear the eerie whistle of rockets soaring ominously in every direction.

The phone rang again, this time from the receptionist, who informed us that we were to be moved to a lower floor as a security measure. Almost as soon as I hung up, hotel staff arrived to gather our belongings and move us to another room.

In our new room, we heard helicopters fly past increasingly often, and we perceived the bombs and gunshots to be getting closer. Then, the power cut out, which made us panic out of fear. To protect ourselves, we took refuge in the bathroom, which seemed like the safest place. We lay on the ground in the dark, listening to exchanges of fire and the shudder of bombs. While at times there were moments of total silence, they were always broken again suddenly by the sound of weapons. Trapped by our uncertainty, every second seemed to be drawn out.

‘That shot was very close. I’m scared!’, my wife whispered after a thunderous bang.

I tried to calm her down, but the frequent explosions rendered my attempts futile. We were totally alone.

As the hours went by, the situation outside did not improve. We awoke to explosions, which had not diminished. The shooting did not let up during the day either, so we had a long and uncertain wait. A few metres from the hotel was the Telecommunications Palace. Attempting to alleviate my boredom at fairly high risk, I looked out the window to see the place being mercilessly assaulted by armed forces from the air and land. Now, the explosions were less than 400 metres away. We felt the exchange of gunfire on top of us and could hear loud voices and music from loudspeakers mounted on helicopters.

The next night came and, with it, the shelling and machine gun fire intensified. As we lay on the bathroom floor, I realised we’d been taking shelter in the hotel for a full 24 hours.

The second night was a nightmare that felt like it would never end. Unable to bear our situation any longer, I came up with a plan and told my wife about it:

‘We have only one possibility—get help from the Swedish Consulate’, I said, which reassured her.

The dawn of Thursday 21st December arrived with rays of light filtering through the small bathroom window. We had brought the hotel room’s phone closer to us so that we could use it from the bathroom. At about 5 AM, I managed to get through to the Swedish Consul. I had called him at home several times earlier in the morning, but he hadn’t answered. By the timbre of his voice, he was an old man.

He was also not a career diplomat; rather, he was one of those so-called honorary consuls who serve little purpose. In that moment, he was useless. Our conversation, which lasted for several minutes, led nowhere. Instead, it turned into a brawl with an incompetent official.

I lost patience and told him to go and fry monkeys in the African jungle. While I got my point across, our only chance of help had vanished.

‘You are too fucking old, man!’, I ended up yelling at him. Mierda…

Normally, my wife and I spent this important time of the year in Panama. As such, we knew the political situation of the country in depth, like the Panamanians. Over time, we’d heard details of the tactics proposed in various statements by the Battalions of Dignity, who had been aware of an imminent invasion by the United States.

Anyone who was aware of this background knew at the storm was far from over. . With each passing day, fears loomed heavy, one of which was the possibility that the Battalions of Dignity, an armed popular movement, might just rise to meet the mounting expectations placed upon them.

As a civil movement related to General Noriega, the Battalions of Dignity had received military training from the Panama Defence Forces. Much was said about them, including how radical their actions could be. It had been mentioned that in the event of an invasion by foreign forces, they would kidnap foreigners with impunity, especially U.S. citizens, whom they knew were mainly to be found in hotels. They would then seek to use them as human shields.

Sheltering on the floor of our small bathroom, unable to sleep, we felt totally helpless. We couldn't come up with any ideas—no one could do anything for us. Then, we felt the bombardment of Operation Just Cause intensifying. Pushed by uncertainty, we finally agreed on a strategy in case the Battalions of Dignity or the U.S. Army entered the hotel.

Mid-morning on Friday 22nd, we heard a violent knock on the room door. It seemed like the person outside wanted to beat the door down.

‘Open up! Open!’, the person shouted while knocking aggressively.

‘Who is it?’, I asked.

However, the voice on the other end persisted:

‘Open up or we're going to shoot!’

The order had become a threat. I made an inference based on the man’s tone of voice.

‘They are from the Battalions of Dignity’, I whispered in my wife’s ear. ‘Quick, get your passport’.

I opened the door to see five guerrilla fighters of the battalion. Looking excited and nervous, they spoke in a hurried, desperate manner.

‘Where are you from?’, one of them asked.

My wife quickly handed him her Nicaraguan passport.

‘We are from Nicaragua’, she replied.

The bravest fighter checked the passport closely, which did not take him long.

‘And who is he?’, he asked as he fixed his gaze on me.

‘He’s my husband’, my wife said.

He looked at me carefully.

‘It is okay’, he said cautiously.

Then, he offered a warning:

he added, "Watch out, the gringos are on their way." ‘

The militiaman’s advice, though warning us of danger, came as a relief as his fury had abated. Although my wife and I remained on tenterhooks, we realised that we had made it through an extremely dangerous moment.

When they left, we returned to sheltering on the bathroom floor. That afternoon, the phone rang. It was my friend Harald Falt, the Swedish Ambassador to Nicaragua, who had managed to locate us after many phone calls.

‘How are you?’, he asked.

I began to feel relieved. I told him about our situation and perilous experiences. Harald informed me that he had notified the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Stockholm about our situation. He had also put our names on an emergency list.

‘From Europe, a NATO plane is being coordinated to evacuate European citizens in Panama’, he said.

I thanked him warmly for calming our spirits. Now this was a diplomat who could do the job he was appointed to do.

Until Saturday 23rd, the hotel had managed to serve guests a minimum supply of food and drinks. However, from the third day onwards, we began to feel the ravages in the quantity of provisions and shortage of staff. Subtly, the hotel management suggested that we leave the hotel.

Given the superiority of the U.S. forces, the invasion had not been met with much resistance. Besides, on the fourth day, fierce clashes still raged between the military factions closest to General Noriega and the invading forces. The most intense fighting was in Chorrillos, a popular neighbourhood of Panama City.

Operation Just Cause had the sole mission of capturing General Noriega; but, by the fourth day, he could still not be found.

Significant fractions of the Panamanian police and army had withdrawn, leaving the country without authorities to ensure public order. This triggered a state of anarchy that manifested in a wave of looting and vandalism, which, in turn, became new focal points of armed confrontations between the owners of commercial establishments, defending their property, and the looters.

Sunday 24th, Christmas Eve, was the fourth day of the operation. With all the restrictions and the hotel management’s ‘friendly’ invitation to leave, my wife and I couldn't be unhappier. Our misfortune felt like the most intense darkness that one feels when a new day is approaching. Raquel Abrahamson, Isaac’s wife, called us on the phone, which I passed to my wife. In an act of solidarity, Raquel had a plan to rescue us.

"I'll swing by in 15 minutes," she announced. "Make sure you're all set. Alright, we'll be waiting for you in the hotel lobby!"

Like a Mossad agent, Raquel carried out the rescue operation impeccably.

‘Damn my car has been stolen. They took my new blue Mercedes!’, she said in the car while driving. However, none of us paid any attention to what she was saying due to the war-like scenes around us.

Isaac, a man with what seemed like a thousand and one passports, was waiting for us at the house. He was born in Switzerland, raised in Brazil, studied in the United States, and earned a master’s degree in the United Kingdom. He had married my wife’s first cousin, who was Jewish, and they had put down roots in Panama. He had then obtained Panamanian citizenship.

Isaac became a well-known art dealer and owned an impressive gallery in the city. His life was spent between the art auctions of New York and Panama City. This good man—an always positive, extraordinarily methodical, well-educated, peaceful pipe smoker and music lover— frequently found a way to escape his thoughts.

While being methodical is a virtue, such a trait can sometimes drive people to madness. Isaac documented every chronological detail of every event he experienced—the year, month, day, and hour, even down to minutes and seconds.

He also scored without haste. How much had a particular item cost him? He knew the figure immediately. Who had he bought it from? He had it written down. Who had he sold it to? He had the answer. What had his wife done that day? He could tell you. In this last area, he was patient and diligent. Perhaps, Isaac could have been a better narrator than Alonso de Ercilla y Zúñiga himself in La Araucana because of his passion for recording details.

I had known Isaac for several years. Over time, we had established a solid friendship, united by our shared enthusiasm for paintings. On several occasions, we had also done good business together.

Raquel and Isaac lived in La Cresta, one of Panama City’s most exclusive areas. They had a huge apartment. To prevent any unwanted visits, Isaac had protected the doors with armour. In this sense, the house was a fortress.

Inside, one was confused as to whether it was a house or a museum. It honestly felt more like a museum. Once we arrived, our main concern changed from dodging stray bullets to not breaking some priceless work of art, which paying for could leave us broke for life. We wandered around the apartment with extreme care and attention, but despite the need to move cautiously, we felt much calmer than at the hotel.

However, Raquel and Isaac told us that they were worried as most of the artworks they owned remained at the gallery. At any moment, they could be looted. Together, we began to plan a second rescue operation to retrieve the paintings.

The most difficult matter was locating a locked truck. We required a daring driver to undertake the adventure for a good few balboas. The rest of the challenge lay in defying adversity. As Raquel had unconditionally brought us from our hotel to their apartment, we didn’t hesitate for a moment about joining the mission. However, to reach the gallery, we had to cross a long stretch of the city, which involved the risk of us being injured or robbed.

On Monday 26th of December, the sixth day of Operation Just Cause, we got the truck along with a driver with the help of some neighbours. We started the trip to the gallery that morning. During the journey, we heard constant gunshots. No one let their guard down until we reached the destination.

The entire mission took us approximately 45 minutes. The gallery was built mostly of glass, which made sense as the works could be seen from the outside. However, at that moment, this style of architecture did not feel beneficial, and every time we took one of the artworks down from the walls, we heard the gunfire getting increasingly close.

Once the paintings had been loaded into the truck, the gunfire increased in intensity, causing a dramatic increase in our anxiety. Raquel’s DNA appeared to have betrayed her, as her innate attachment to material belongings had put the lives of our team at risk. I asked myself the following question:

**‘What chucha does this cousin do in the gallery?’**

I went back inside to find Raquel eagerly removing the nails the pictures had been hung on the walls with. ‘It can't be, it can't be’, I thought. ‘She wants to take absolutely everything!’ Seeing this caused me to run out of patience.

‘Stop that, please. Do you want them to kill us because of you?’, I shouted. Then, pulling her by the arm, we ran out of the building together. Between the scene’s absurdity and complexity, Isaac looked happy about the harsh scolding he gave his wife in exquisite Chilean.

On the way home, we had to find shortcuts to move forward as mobs of looters had mobilised throughout the streets. On more than one occasion, shots rang out that made us stop for safety.

Back at the apartment, Isaac overflowed with joy and gratitude. He was thrilled to have his things safe, and he offered us all manner of attention.

As the days passed, our sense of nostalgia for our own home grew. Every morning, Harald called to give me the lowdown regarding our evacuation from Panama. In the last call, he added three new elements to the unfortunate situation: First, General Noriega had not been captured; second, Panamanian airspace remained closed; and third, the airport had been seriously damaged and was only being used for military purposes by the U.S. Army. The news, although not encouraging, was at least revealing.

We lived Isaac’s methodical practices each day. Just a few weeks previously, he had become a father to a child named Moshe. Isaac had made a film of the birth, which he proudly—and repeatedly—showed us. With passion, he narrated each stage of childbirth. He bit his pipe while laughing happily, admiring the arrival of his son. In his peculiar Spanish, he recounted the following:

"With a weight of 5 kilos and 535 grams, and a length of 54 centimeters, Moshe beamed with pride and declared, 'Ah, that's the beauty of nature!'"

There was also no shortage of the best Brazilian music. Isaac always offered everything.

‘Whatever you want, I’ll record it for you’, he promised.

I had never seen such a collection of records, and so carefully classified.

On the morning of December 27th, a family friend called to say that he thought he had seen Raquel’s blue Mercedes at a barricade on the way to the airport—although he couldn’t be certain. Why say that? In less time than we took to react, Raquel had already plotted the third mission with the goal of bringing her car home.

Isaac made his way to the library and began to look through photo albums for a photo of the car. It took him a while but he found one, and we immediately set off, encountering more than a few confrontations along the way. On several occasions, we considered aborting the mission, but Raquel’s insistence made us continue. She wanted her car back no matter the risk level.

We found the blue Mercedes barricaded outside a supermarket. At least 40 people were behind the car, and the supermarket was being looted. Raquel got out the car and went towards the improvised troops, who acted quickly.

‘This car is mine!’, she shouted insistently at them.

Isaac was behind showing the photo that identified the Mercedes as her property. One of the members of the group, as if he were an authority, looked at Raquel.

‘The vehicle has been confiscated and declared useful for the war’, he said.

Raquel was not daunted.

‘War or anything—the car is mine!’, she retorted confrontationally.

Some in the crowd began to badmouth her.

**‘Sold gringa!’, shouted one. ‘Get out of here!’**

However, Raquel made such a fuss that they eventually gave in out of fatigue.

The Mercedes contained a prize as the looters had been using it to transport stolen goods. Raquel opened the car boot to find an entire supermarket of goods, causing her face to beam with delight. She immediately claimed the provisions as her own. However, the day’s events had exhausted our group and another fight broke out over Raquel’s nature, requiring mediation to calm everyone down.

On Thursday 28th December, night had fallen when the phone rang.

‘It’s Harald, the ambassador’, Isaac said.

When I heard my friend’s voice, I was filled with emotion.

‘Fernando’, he told me, ‘NATO has obtained permission from the United States for a plane to land tomorrow in Panama. The plane will leave Panama City at 1 o'clock in the afternoon bound for San Jose, Costa Rica’.

‘What good news! What joy!’, I exclaimed.

I informed Isaac, who offered to take us to the airport. That night, we prepared the little we had with us. On Friday 29th, very early in the morning, we were ready to leave this desvated country. Before we left, Isaac carefully placed each of his passports in different pants pockets, except for his American passport, which he put in his left shirt pocket.

General Noriega had taken refuge in a Catholic nunnery. Moreover, the invading forces employed a variety of strategies to instil fear in the increasingly isolated Panamanian military, including psychological warfare tactics. These tactics encompassed the incessant playing of loud music throughout the day and night, as well as the continuous overflight of helicopters above the Vatican's diplomatic headquarters.

The journey to the airport, which would normally take around 30 minutes, took more than 2.5 hours. Every time we encountered a U.S. Army barricade, Isaac got out of the car and walked purposefully, with a unique courage, toward the military personnel. He took his U.S. passport in his right hand and raised it high, while his pipe did not leave his left hand.

‘I’m an American’, he repeated, ‘and I've come to drop off my cousins who are going to leave on a NATO plane’.

The commandos approached the car, examined it, asked for my passport, studied it carefully, and let us continue. It was a scene repeated at least five times. On that journey, we experienced almost as much anguish and uncertainty as we had in the eight days we had been trapped in the country.

The penultimate surprise came when we arrived at the airport, which was in ruins. There was no one to turn to and nowhere to go.

‘And what shall we do now?’, my wife asked. ‘Wait’, I answered. ‘We can only wait’.

Isaac waited with us. As hours passed, Europeans who were going to leave on the same emergency flight arrived. When there were many passengers, an officer appeared with a list and reviewed each person on it. We bid Isaac farewell with emotion and great affection, thanking him for all the attention.

The plane landed a few minutes before 1 PM. The final surprise was that the plane was an impressive Hercules C-130, commonly used for transporting troops. At first, we didn’t even know how to sit down; however, all 55 evacuees were eventually accommodated onboard. It was approaching 2 PM when the plane took off. As these giant aircraft are so heavy, they fly slowly, so the flight was twice as long as a commercial flight. After more than 2 hours of flying, we reached Costa Rica, where the German ambassador was waiting to welcome us.

We were in the first round of evacuees to leave Panama following the invasion. General Noriega was in the second, but he of course left the country for a different destination—namely Miami, Florida, on 3rd January 1990. Two Black Hawk helicopters were used for what would be a one-way trip to his imprisonment.

Germán & Co 1/10/25 Germán & Co 1/10/25

Trump's Hypothetical Greenland Takeover Is A Strategic Move For Arctic Dominance And A Precursor To A Confrontation With China.

The proposal put forth by former President Trump regarding the acquisition of Greenland transcends a mere unconventional real estate initiative; it represents a calculated strategy aimed at establishing dominance in the Arctic region and serves as a precursor to the anticipated confrontation with China. Initially introduced in 2019, the notion of purchasing Greenland was met with derision and doubt, resulting in the cancellation of a planned state visit to Denmark. However, six years later, the former president is rekindling his interest in the largest island on the planet, and the implications of this renewed focus are significantly more consequential than before.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“Trump's Greenland proposal is more than just a quirky real estate venture; it's a strategic play for dominance in the Arctic and a prelude to the looming showdown with China. When he first floated the idea of purchasing Greenland back in 2019, it was met with laughter and skepticism, leading to a canceled state visit to Denmark. Now, six years later, the former president is reigniting his interest in the world's largest island, and this time, the stakes are higher than ever…

https://theconversation.com/trumps-greenland-bid-is-really-about-control-of-the-arctic-and-the-coming-battle-with-china-246900

Disclaimer: The views shared in this text are entirely those of Germán & Co. and should be taken as such…

Happy Sabbath to everyone….

Thoughts on January 10, a day woven with dreams and dashed hopes... The dangers of deviation in the human brain . . .

Humanity is confronted with the tragic symphony of the Cosmic War—an ensemble that weaves pandemic loneliness, petty strife, poverty and inflation into a wretched soundscape.

However, the perils associated with deviations in human cognition are exacerbated by the oppressive, distressing, narcissistic, and histrionic dominance exhibited by dictators. These dictators are often products of societies that have faltered under the corrosive influences of their environments, in this case, the Caribbean Sea.

Just yesterday, President Donald Trump took a daring stance, dubbing Nicolás Maduro Moros a dictator and painting him as a puppet of the Cuban regime.

…Kudos to President Trump for his bold statements, but we still have a way to go.

Additionally, on December 19, 1989, former Costa Rican President and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Oscar Arias, recounted a moment of profound anxiety when he received a call from then-President George H.W. Bush. At the time, Bush was serving as Vice President under Ronald Reagan, and he informed Arias that U.S. Air Force planes were in route to Panama for a bombing operation. Arias described experiencing a physical reaction of panic upon hearing this news; however, he later grasped the rationale behind Bush's statement, which indicated that the objective was to eliminate a drug trafficker rather than to depose a legitimate head of state. (1)

The soundscape is a concept devised by the Canadian composer R. Murray Schafer in the sixties of the twentieth century and perfectly understood Don José Antonio Abreu Anselmi (Valera, May 7, 1939-Caracas, March 24, 2018), musician, economist, politician, activist, educator and the "Gran" Minister of Culture who founded the National Youth Orchestra and the National System of Youth, Children's and Pre-Children's Symphony Orchestras of Venezuela.

Venezuelan anthropology is characterized by a profound and transparent harmony that contributes to the formation of an intelligent, peaceful, and supportive society. This discipline endeavors to navigate its fragmented trajectory in accordance with these principles; however, it is regrettable that, in certain contexts, these ideals may prove insufficient.

Imagine a symphony of isolated notes and sounds, each a unique thread woven into the rich tapestry of the auditory world that envelops humanity in each moment and space. The essence of the soundscape concept lies in its ability to peel back the layers of history, revealing the fundamental acoustic and political nuances of a particular era. We focus on a significant moment in time, namely the Venezuelan plain during the late 1920s.

Indeed, we’re talking about Rómulo Gallegos, the novelist and politician born in Caracas on August 2, 1884. He is the mastermind behind the captivating tale of Doña Barbara. This narrative echoes the struggles he faced during his presidency in 1948, a time overshadowed by the weight of oppressive forces. Gallegos captures the rich soundscapes of the plains, where the symphony of nature intertwines with the human experience. The rhythmic neighing of horses, the sharp crack of a whip, or the piercing sound of a whistle create an immersive auditory tapestry, each note brimming with profound significance.

Over the past few decades, Venezuelan civil society —alone, entirely alone— has grasped the gravity of their situation, bravely standing their ground against a monster. Among valiant, courageous individuals like María Corina Machado, the expectation that someone can bring about transformative, miraculous change is no longer realistic. Likewise, Don Edmundo González Urrutia committed himself to be noble solely by a profound love for the nation, despite the significant personal sacrifices he endured.

This is precisely why the recollections of President Oscar Arias hold such significance in this somber tale of the plains: “Back then, Bush was the Vice President under Ronald Reagan, and he relayed to Arias that U.S. Air Force planes were en route to Panama for a bombing mission. Upon hearing this, Arias felt a wave of panic wash over him; yet, he eventually came to understand the reasoning behind Bush's words, which suggested that the aim was to take down a drug lord rather than to overthrow a rightful leader.”

https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/5flh6ewlg7n74sf-kf9b4-2ez5f-37lnf-zbyza-tjbhy-zzdh5-enxl7-cz6mk-8z3fk-gkdgw-ws7xl-rxf4f-kc3a6-f343j-947nl-799rl-hnghj-a6rb7-2sjr3-jaa7m-ct3xb-gxana

Today…

Trump joins history’s long line of suitors coveting Greenland…

America’s 20th and 19th century expansionists would have been delighted by the president-elect’s proposed land grab…

Politico EU, authored by Jamie Dettner, January 11, 2025

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1878046401646522402

Trump joins history’s long line of suitors coveting Greenland…

America’s 20th and 19th century expansionists would have been delighted by the president-elect’s proposed land grab…

Politico EU, authored by Jamie Dettner, January 11, 2025

In 1946, the last time the United States tried to buy Greenland, Washington offered $100 million in gold bullion and a land swap that would have transferred ownership of Point Barrow in Alaska over to Denmark.

Maybe the Danes should have agreed. If they had, then they wouldn’t now have to be fending off the persistent would-be purchaser Donald Trump and enduring one of his sons touring the island marketing the benefits of becoming American. They also would have been the beneficiaries of the richest petroleum discovery in American history with the opening up of the giant oilfield in Prudhoe Bay in 1967.

“While we owe much to America, I do not feel that we owe them the whole island of Greenland,” then Danish Foreign Minster Gustav Rasmussen told the infuriated Americans in 1946 when rejecting their offer.

That offer had been made because the joint chiefs of staff and State Department officials decided turning the world’s largest island, located on the shortest polar route between Washington and Moscow, into the 51st state was one of military necessity for the United States. Time magazine dubbed the island the world’s largest “stationary aircraft carrier.”

The Americans judged the island was completely worthless to Denmark and had been neglected — a common theme in other U.S. bids to purchase Greenland. “There are few people in Denmark who have any real interest in Greenland, economic, political or financial,” announced William Trimble, a senior State Department official.

That didn’t persuade the reluctant Danes — all the country’s political parties dismissed the proposal with Rasmussen dubbing it absurd in a parliamentary debate.

Meanwhile, the Americans were equally obdurate in their refusal to withdraw from U.S. bases first established on the island in 1941 to ensure Nazi Germany couldn’t use Greenland to attack the American mainland nor gain control of important raw materials. That refusal eventually prompted Denmark to join NATO.

Long line of suitors

Trump is just the latest in a long line of suitors — and not just American — who have come knocking at Denmark’s door wanting take the island off its hands.

Trump is likely to prove among the most persistent and aggressive — he’s now upped the ante by declining to say whether he would ever invade Greenland, the first time such a threat, in jest or otherwise, has been made by a U.S. leader. But it got him the headlines.

“If you had told me 10 years ago that I’d be interviewing about Greenland, I would not have put that high up on my list of possible topics the media would be interested in,” says historian John C. Mitcham of Duquesne University in Pittsburgh. “But it is also really fascinating, somewhat troubling too, that we’re hearing the echoes of the past with Victorian language about sovereignty and security.”
He adds: “You and I are talking about this in context of Greenland, Canada, and Trump, but the same can be applied to some of the rhetoric surrounding Russian annexation in Ukraine, of Chinese maritime ambitions in the Pacific. It really is quite… What’s the phrase? New wine in old bottles.”

Critics may deride the president-elect for his expansionist ambition to annex Greenland, but geopolitical considerations and military logic have prompted U.S. diplomats before to offer to buy the island.

Critics may deride the president-elect for his expansionist ambition to annex Greenland, but geopolitical considerations and military logic have prompted U.S. diplomats before to offer to buy the island. | Ida Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images

The first time was in 1867 when the then powerful secretary of state William H. Seward, fresh off buying Alaska from Russia, floated the idea. It was “worthy of serious consideration,” he said.

An ardent expansionist, Seward, who also coveted Canada, commissioned a favorable study, much as Trump might do to lure investors to back yet another casino hotel. “The final document — which Seward had printed and distributed to lawmakers— was hardly objective in its findings,” wrote historian Jeff Ludwig, director of education at the Seward House Museum in Auburn, in a 2019 article.

Certainly, ‘A Report on the Resources of Iceland and Greenland’ didn’t under-sell the potential of Greenland, and its author, Benjamin Peirce, a surveyor, waxed enthusiastically about the island’s abundant wildlife, game and fisheries, its great mineral wealth, including coal, and the fact that it was “largely more than half the size of all Europe.”

Bye bye, Canada…

Above all, and music no doubt to Seward’s ears, Peirce stressed that securing Greenland combined with the Alaska Purchase would mean the United States had successfully outflanked British America [Canada] on both the Arctic and Pacific. Pierce said that the Dominion of Canada had been “gotten up in England in a spirit of bitter hostility to the United States.”

By outflanking Canada it would “greatly increase British America’s inducements, peacefully and cheerfully, to become part of the American Union,” he argued.

Alas for Seward, his proposal to expand the United States only excited opposition from a deeply hostile Congress, which was at loggerheads with President Andrew Johnson, who assumed the presidency following Abraham Lincoln’s assassination. Congress had already nixed Seward’s proposal to buy Denmark’s West Indies, subsequently bought from Copenhagen in 1917 for $25 million in gold and renamed the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Trump’s Folly…

Subsequently, in 1910, there were behind-the-scenes talks between Washington and Copenhagen, part of a proposed highly complicated global real estate swap — one that would have Trump drooling — involving the trading of islands in the Philippines and West Indies along with Northern Schleswig between the U.S., Germany and Denmark.

Not to be outdone, Britain and Canada have also coveted Greenland, with London trying to secure Danish agreement during World War I that it would get first right of refusal in the event Copenhagen ever decided to sell, partly to ensure the U.S. didn’t get it.

That effort came after British and Dominion leaders agreed among themselves at a highly secret meeting in 1917 that Britain should buy Greenland for the Canadians as part of a post-war global territorial adjustment. “The Canadian government had its own more reserved annexationist designs during the course of the First World War oriented towards the idea of creating a North American Canadian Empire,” says Mitcham. “And it became very interested in Greenland,” he adds.

“When the United States begins to show its own interest in Greenland, this is when the British Foreign Office began to back off from its support of Canada’s ambitions,” Mitcham says.

The Danish also showed only muted interest, and emphasized their determination to maintain ownership of the island by formally declaring in 1921 sovereignty over all of Greenland. Norway challenged Danish sovereignty in 1931 but its claim was dismissed by the Permanent Court of International Justice, part of the League of Nations.

“We need Greenland for national security purposes,” Trump said during his Tuesday press conference. “People really don’t even know if Denmark has any legal right to [Greenland], but if they do they should give it up because we need it for national security.”

Seward, secretary of state during the Alaska Purchase, would have been delighted. At the time, his deal was dubbed by his enemies as Seward’s Folly, but history has largely taken a kinder view on the venture.

Trump’s Folly is still to be played out.

Germán & Co 1/8/25 Germán & Co 1/8/25

A Wild OPA Proposal to acquire the Panama Canal… Why?

My affection for you runs deep, but I need to step up and manage this vanishing water footprint.

The proposal to acquire the Panama Canal is rooted in several strategic concerns. The ongoing drought and water footprint issues are significant, as they impact the canal's operations. Additionally, China's strategic advancements in port constructions in Peru and Nicaragua, along with its aggressive free trade agreements in Latin America, have established a strong foothold in the region. The United States, on the other hand, has largely neglected its influence in Latin America over the past two decades. President Trump's statements, therefore, aim to ensure the navigability of the canal and counter China's growing influence.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

The response of a poorly informed reader may be characterized as chaotic, particularly in light of the histrionic persona of President Donald Trump. However, such an interpretation is fundamentally misguided. In contrast, a well-informed reader's reaction to this situation is predicated on the precarious technical circumstances surrounding the water footprint, the ongoing drought, and China's strategic advancements in critical port constructions in both Peru and Nicaragua. Furthermore, it is essential to recognize that China, Through its aggressive free trade agreements with Latin America, it has established a significant foothold in the region, especially considering that the United States has largely neglected its influence in this area over the past two decades. Additionally, the concept of constructing a dry interoceanic across Nicaragua has been a topic of discussion for some time. In this context, President Trump's statements should not be viewed as arbitrary; rather, they are aimed at ensuring the navigability of the canal.

“North America boasts a treasure trove of gas resources, with cost efficiencies dipping below $2.8 per MMBTU, ensuring that we can satisfy over 25 years of demand. But as we brace ourselves for a harsh winter in 2025, how will the price of natural gas play into this scenario?

Today…

What was the failure of the Panama Canal?

The failure of the Panama Canal can be attributed to several factors, including cost overruns, heavy personnel losses, and political corruption. These issues ultimately led to the project only being partly completed.

The information is sourced from www.ncesc.com and authored by Marguerite Newman, dated June 20, 2024

REDEFINING US STRATEGY WITH LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN FOR A NEW ERA

Atlantic Counsil, February 2024

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Redefining-US-Strategy-with-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean-for-a-New-Era.pdf

The future of natural gas in North America What role will natural gas play in North America’s energy mix over the next decades? And how can players position themselves to manage threats and capture opportunities from the energy transition? December 2019 © JasonDoiy/Getty Images by Adam Barth, Jamie Brick, Dumitru Dediu, and Humayun Tai

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Electric%20Power%20and%20Natural%20Gas/Our%20Insights/The%20future%20of%20natural%20gas%20in%20North%20America/The-future-of-natural-gas-in-North-America-final.pdf

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1877140390416937244

What was the failure of the Panama Canal?

The failure of the Panama Canal can be attributed to several factors, including cost overruns, heavy personnel losses, and political corruption. These issues ultimately led to the project only being partly completed.

The information is sourced from www.ncesc.com and authored by Marguerite Newman, dated June 20, 2024.

Why did the Panama Canal fail?

The Panama Canal failed due to cost overruns caused by underestimating the difficulties in excavating the rugged terrain, heavy personnel losses to tropical diseases, and political corruption in France surrounding the financing of the massive project.

How was the Panama Canal negative?

The Panama Canal had negative impacts, such as the destruction of the environment. It resulted in the excavation of mountains, severing the land bridge between the North and South American continents, and submerging over 150 square miles of jungle under a manmade lake.

What were the major issues in making the Panama Canal?

The major issues in constructing the Panama Canal included the challenges posed by deadly endemic diseases, such as yellow fever and malaria. These diseases caused significant casualties and had previously defeated French efforts to build the canal in the 1880s.

How did the US lose the Panama Canal?

The US lost the Panama Canal through the signing of several treaties. The first treaty, known as the Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty, granted the US control over the Panama Canal Zone. The second treaty, called The Panama Canal Treaty, stated that the Panama Canal Zone would cease to exist on October 1, 1979, and the Canal itself would be turned over to the Panamanians on December 31, 1999.

Demolition, disease, and death: Building the Panama Canal – Alex Gendler

There is no specific information related to this question in the provided article.

When did the U.S. lose the Panama Canal?

The US officially handed over control of the Panama Canal to Panama’s government on December 31, 1999. This transfer of control was a result of the Torrijos-Carter Treaties, which were signed on September 7, 1977.

What happened as a result of the Panama Canal?

As a result of the Panama Canal, there were significant benefits in terms of transportation and healthcare. The canal had a positive impact on transportation between the east and west coasts of the US. Additionally, the construction of the canal led to the introduction of new healthcare technologies in Panama.

Was the Panama Canal sold for $1?

The Panama Canal was not sold for $1. In 1977, the Torrijos-Carter Treaty allowed for the transfer of control of the canal to Panama for a nominal fee of $1. However, this symbolic payment was not the actual selling price of the canal.

Who owns the Panama Canal now?

The Panama Canal is currently owned and managed by the Panamanian government-owned Panama Canal Authority. It was transferred to Panama’s government on December 31, 1999, after a period of joint American-Panamanian control.

Why were so many lives lost building the canal?

Many lives were lost during the construction of the Panama Canal due to deadly diseases, particularly yellow fever and malaria. An estimated 22,000 workers died during the French efforts to build the canal, and deaths related to disease were a major factor in the casualties.

Was the Panama Canal a success or failure?

While the French attempt to build the Panama Canal was a failure, the American effort was ultimately successful. The French faced significant challenges, including financial problems and high casualties, leading to the project’s failure. In contrast, the US completed the construction of the canal and achieved its intended objectives.

Was the Panama Canal good or bad for the US?

The Panama Canal had several positive effects on the US. It improved transportation between the east and west coasts of the country, resulting in economic benefits and increased national income. Additionally, the presence of the canal in American hands ensured the maintenance of low transit rates.

What are 2 effects of the Panama Canal?

The Panama Canal had two major effects. First, it provided a strategic international trade route, reducing transportation costs and improving access between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Second, the canal facilitated the development of tourism activities and contributed to the growth of the national maritime sector.

Was the Panama Canal man-made?

Yes, the Panama Canal is a man-made waterway. It was constructed by human efforts and involved excavation, the building of locks, and the creation of a manmade lake to connect the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Is the Panama Canal still in use today?

Yes, the Panama Canal is still in use today. After its completion, it became a crucial international trade route and continues to facilitate maritime transportation between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Why did the US invade Panama?

The US invaded Panama in 1989 with the primary objective of removing General Manuel Noriega from power. Noriega was wanted by US authorities on charges of racketeering and drug trafficking, and the invasion aimed to depose him as the de facto ruler of Panama.

Why did the US pay Panama $10 million dollars?

The US paid Panama $10 million dollars as part of the compensation for the Panama Canal Zone. This payment was made in 1903 after supporting a revolution in Panama that resulted in the country’s independence from Colombia. The Colombian government had initially demanded a higher payment of $25 million.

How many years did it take to build the Panama Canal?

The construction of the Panama Canal took 10 years, from 1904 to 1914. This extensive project involved significant engineering and labor efforts to complete the canal’s excavation, building of locks, and other necessary infrastructure.

Who built the Panama Canal first?

The French were the first to attempt the construction of the Panama Canal. Led by Count Ferdinand de Lesseps, who also built the Suez Canal in Egypt, the French began the project in 1881. However, they faced various challenges and eventually failed in their attempt.

What are 3 benefits of the Panama Canal?

Three major benefits of the Panama Canal include improved global trade and transportation, increased access and connectivity between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and the facilitation of economic growth in Panama through the maritime sector. The canal has played a significant role in international commerce and has contributed to Panama’s development as a key regional player.

Recommended

Germán & Co 1/6/25 Germán & Co 1/6/25

A new and perilous landscape lies ahead for President-elect Trump…

A treacherous terrain awaits President-elect Trump as he steps into the spotlight…

“Why are South Korean protesters brandishing U.S. flags and shouting pro-Trump slogans? It appears that supporters and critics of President Yoon Suk Yeol alike are rallying around American symbols, flaunting everything from the “Stop the Steal” mantra to the Virginia state flag…

North America boasts a wealth of gas resources, with cost efficiencies dipping below $2.8 per MMBTU, enough to satisfy over 25 years of demand.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“Why are South Korean demonstrators waving U.S. flags and chanting pro-Trump phrases? It seems that both fans and foes of President Yoon Suk Yeol are embracing American imagery, sporting everything from the “Stop the Steal” catchphrase to the Virginia state flag…

North America has enough gas resources with cost economics below $2.8 per MMBTU to meet more than 25 years of demand.?

**Help us…**

Finally, the dream of this little blog is set to come to life with the release of the much-anticipated second edition of "The Owner of Non Man Lan and Other Tales." This fresh installment will showcase a fascinating story that explores the depths of the human mind, aptly named: "Marilyn was told by a policeman that he was a good thief..."—a heartfelt homage to the revered Nicaraguan poet, Ernesto Cardenal.

Today…

A different and more dangerous world awaits President-elect Trump

The war in Ukraine presents immediate challenges for the incoming president, with other problems looming in the Middle East and China…

WSJ, Analysis by Dan Balz, January 5, 2025

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1876205450405843162

A different and more dangerous world awaits President-elect Trump

The war in Ukraine presents immediate challenges for the incoming president, with other problems looming in the Middle East and China…

WSJ, Analysis by Dan Balz, January 5, 2025

President-elect Donald Trump will begin his second term stronger and more dominant as a player on the world stage than when he was sworn in eight years ago. The world that awaits him, however, is far different — and more threatening — than when he left the presidency four years ago.

Trump’s “America First” second-term focus purports to be principally on the home front. The deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants was one of his leading campaign pledges, and his initial appointments suggest he is serious about this priority. The proposal is fraught with practical and political questions.

Dealing with the domestic economy through tax and spending cuts and regulatory changes was another key promise. Polls suggest the economy — mostly inflation — counted more than other issues did in Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. But many economists have said that Trump’s economic agenda — tariffs and an extension of tax cuts — could lead to a new round of inflation and more debt. Deportations, too, would disrupt the economy.

Trump has also pledged to bring the civil service to heel. An initiative that includes cost-cutting and finding inefficiencies will be led by multibillionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk and onetime rival Vivek Ramaswamy. The two have grand ambitions and, seemingly, the president-elect’s blessing. Nonetheless, they face multiple challenges before they will be able to deliver more than symbolic changes.

Still, Trump could quickly be drawn into foreign policy challenges. He will confront a world of chaos and conflict: a prolonged war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin more hostile than ever, and the Middle East still in turmoil after more than 15 months of warfare, with Iran weakened, Syria without Bashar al-Assad and Israel stronger militarily but scarred internationally because of its conduct in the war in Gaza.

China presents other challenges for Trump, who has threatened major new tariffs on a country with serious economic problems and growing military ambitions. As an indication of his intentions, Trump plans to populate his incoming administration with several China hawks. Meanwhile, governments of key U.S. allies in Europe, particularly France and Germany, are weakened, with right-wing, populist parties on the rise.

Trump prides himself as a dealmaker. His approach to foreign policy in his first term appeared to be more personal than strategic. He prefers dealing with autocrats rather than working with traditional alliances. In his second term, he probably will find it more difficult to work with the likes of Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and the leader who sent him what Trump called “love letters,” North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

Trump may find it harder to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin in his second term. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)

Daniel Benjamin, president of the American Academy in Berlin, said one of the biggest changes since Trump was last in office is what he called “an axis of resistance,” which includes Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. “That is now a hard and fast reality,” Benjamin said.

As one former European diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations put it, “It’s not like the old Cold War, but you can see a global pattern of jostling and tension.” In that environment, Trump’s jousting adversaries are seen as less inclined to make short-term deals that benefit the incoming president.

“Trump’s old playbook involved making believe that, on any given day, he could strike an amazing deal with any of them and be the opposing leader’s best friend. Think back to that wacky personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un,” Benjamin said. “That won’t cut it now.”

Ivo Daalder, chief executive officer of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, said, “The big thing is that Russia is at war with the West.” He said Putin is focused on subjugating Ukraine, with the longer-term goal of regaining Russia’s strategic position that was lost at the end of the Cold War.

“That means Putin is a very different character,” Daalder said. “More isolated. More focused on a singular goal than he might have been when Trump last met with him.”

The war in Ukraine could become a first test for Trump, given the status on the battlefield there, the exhaustion of depleted Ukrainian forces and declining support in the United States, particularly among Republicans, for continued assistance to Kyiv.

Trump said during the campaign that he could strike a deal to end the war in a day, the kind of hyperbole for which he is famous. Reality is different. The worry among European analysts is that Putin will have maximalist demands and that Trump, eager to get an agreement, might concede too much.

Trump’s potential moves on Ukraine are a source of considerable concern among U.S. allies in Europe, who have been part of the coalition assembled initially by President Joe Biden and who have their own security issues depending on what happens. Will Trump sell out the Ukrainians with an agreement that essentially destroys their sovereignty? Could Ukraine be forced to give up territory, but in return for guarantees that would tie them to the West?

Trump has the opportunity to help remake the Middle East, but there are at least two big questions. First, to what extent will he give Israel a free hand in ways that Biden did not? Second, what will his posture be toward Iran? Will he see an opportunity for negotiation or take a very hard-line approach? His choice for Israel ambassador, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who is strongly pro-Israel, has been interpreted as a sign that he will yield more to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than Biden has.

Trump will come into office with some U.S. allies weakened and absorbed with internal problems. French President Emmanuel Macron has been dealt a series of political defeats in recent months. In Germany, the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz has collapsed, with new elections coming. South Korea’s government is in turmoil after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saw his deputy prime minister resign in protest and is deeply unpopular with the public.

In Germany and France, far-right parties are gaining strength, and Musk recently sparked controversy with an op-ed article calling the AfD (Alternative for Germany) that country’s “last spark for hope.” In Britain, Musk has been sharply critical of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and has flirted with the populist hard-right Reform Party. Party leader Nigel Farage, a Trump ally, has even appealed to Musk for financial support for his party.

Europeans will see Trump differently today than at the beginning of his last term. His second victory came as a surprise to many European analysts, and his agenda is now taken more seriously than ever. Trump’s hectoring of NATO is an ongoing concern, and the prospect of new tariffs is deeply worrying to America’s European allies.

Among foreign policy analysts, there is a sense that Trump comes to his second term better prepared to carry out his foreign policy priorities. And, they say, Trump begins with some clear assets to enhance his ability to shape events around the world but with perhaps less room for swagger. As Robin Niblett, a distinguished fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, noted, in a more dangerous world, “the cost of throwing his weight around could be greater.”

Germán & Co 1/3/25 Germán & Co 1/3/25

Biden plans to ban drilling in coastal waters before Trump's inauguration…

Operation ‘Just Cause’

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

Double the impact...

Two “President Biden is taking a bold step by prohibiting oil and gas drilling in certain federal waters of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This move, anchored in a well-established legal foundation, could pose a challenge for any future Trump administration that might seek to undo it. This decision comes on the heels of Biden's recent green light for Ukraine to deploy long-range U.S. missiles against Russian positions…

**Happy Sabbath…**

At first, we welcomed the year's inaugural Shabbat with open hearts, eager to share joy and positivity. Yet, the unsettling happenings in New Orleans and Las Vegas, coupled with whispers of a new SARC variant, cast a shadow over our spirits. To add to our woes, we’ve been battling a relentless cold, complete with feverish discomfort…

Back in 2016, we unveiled our last literary gem, "The Owner of Non Man Lan and Other Tales." Among its tales lies a vivid recounting of the Panama invasion, an event we witnessed firsthand, ensuring every detail is steeped in truth and accuracy.

Life, with its bittersweet blend of sorrow and joy, reminds us that both are essential to our journey. We strive to weave humor into our storytelling, lightening the weight of our narratives.

In the midst of these turbulent times, we feel a pull to delve into the roots of the unrest surrounding us. In a delightful twist, Pablo Neruda’s "Delirium Stadium of Fever," In his memoirs “I confess that I have lived”, set against the mesmerizing backdrop of Ceylon, tells of a young girl who visits the poet, hoping to ease his suffering. This tale serves as a heartfelt call to uplift the marginalized. Meanwhile, the other Pablo Neruda, a connoisseur of exquisite Bordeaux, particularly Gran Crux, has likely let his collection gather dust over the years.

This contemplation has sparked an idea for a story featuring Elvis Presley performing in Red Square, (Fran Séres Conte russos) intertwined with the life of a 61-year-old Russian KGB agent living in the U.S. under the alias Joseph B. Newman. One fateful day, he watches the Berlin Wall crumble on television. His true name is Dmitri, a man who has spent nearly three decades in hiding, leaving behind a family he longs for. Forgotten by his superiors, he waits in vain for orders, trapped in a life built on a crumbling ideology in a country that has turned its back on him.

It is important to note that, despite the historical subjugation of the Russian populace since the era of the Romanovs, who notably appropriated their Fabergé collections, there seems to be a deficiency in literary representation comparable to that found in Dostoevsky's "Crime and Punishment." This observation prompts inquiries regarding the nature of the world we inhabit.

Last night, I found myself enchanted by the whimsical thoughts of the theatrical and psychedelic Peruvian journalist, Jaime Baily. He explored the fascinating prospect of a Venezuelan diplomat potentially taking over his position on January 10th. It seems that the once-elusive chimera—the hope, the dream, the vision of justice and democracy—is finally starting to take shape... Inchala… Amén…

At long last, the aspiration of this humble blog is to unveil the second edition of along with a collection of captivat "The Owner of Non Man Lan and Other Tales." This new edition will feature the intriguing narrative that delves into the struggles of the psyche, titled: Marilyn was told by a policeman that he was a good thief.... "—a tribute to the esteemed Nicaraguan poet, Ernesto Cardenal.

To bring this vision to life, we’re gearing up for a fundraising campaign, inviting you to join us on this exciting journey. The edition will be in English, and we’ve already reached out to a British publisher to help us make this dream a reality!

Thank to all…

Today…

Operation ‘Just Cause’

Panama is vital to the U.S. due to the Canal's significance in global trade and U.S. influence since the early 1900s. By the late 1980s, tensions escalated under military leader Manuel Noriega, accused of drug trafficking and human rights violations. His oppressive regime and electoral fraud incited unrest. The killing of U.S. officer Robert Paz and assaults on Americans led President George H.W. Bush to initiate Operation Just Cause to protect lives and secure the Canal while honoring treaties.

By Germán Toro Ghio

Carter’s Panama Canal Treaties Symbolize How Much Washington Has Changed

To return the canal to Panama, President Jimmy Carter worked to change minds and build a bipartisan coalition that put aside short-term political considerations…

*Peter Baker published in The New York Times, dated January 2, 2025, and originating from Washington, D.C.

Before Trump Takes Office, Biden to Ban Drilling in Some Coastal Waters…

Move would be difficult for incoming administration to undo…

According to an article by Scott Patterson published in the Wall Street Journal on January 3, 2025.

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires…

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1875999065386688561

Operation ‘Just Cause’

By Germán Toro Ghio

Forewords…

This evening, we wish to in some exquisite jazz...

‘What seems to be the issue, Lieutenant?

The uniformed man responded with a rigidity common to such ranks of the military:

‘The president is attending an official ceremony, sir’.

As we made our way to the table the waiter had pointed to, Isaac Abrahamson, my wife’s cousin, greeted several people.

‘How are things?’, Isaac asked one of them.

‘Well, very well’, they replied.

As we sat down, Isaac told us about the people he had greeted.

‘Some of them are —paisanos—. Others are ministers…

‘They're invading’, he said in a desperate tone. Before he hung up, I heard another explosion. Then, there was the roar of another and another before the explosions continued unabated. It was real—Panama City was being bombed.

‘That shot was very close. I’m scared!’, my wife whispered after a thunderous bang.

I tried to calm her down, but the frequent explosions rendered my attempts futile. We were totally alone.

The next night came and, with it, the shelling and machine gun fire intensified. As we lay on the bathroom floor, I realised we’d been taking shelter in the hotel for a full 24 hours.

The second night was a nightmare that felt like it would never end. Unable to bear our situation any longer, I came up with a plan and told my wife about it:

‘We have only one possibility—get help from the Swedish Consulate’, I said, which reassured her.

I lost patience and told him to go and fry monkeys in the African jungle. While I got my point across, our only chance of help had vanished.

‘You are too fucking old, man!’, I ended up yelling at him. Mierda…

Mid-morning on Friday 22nd, we heard a violent knock on the room door. It seemed like the person outside wanted to beat the door down.

‘Open up! Open!’, the person shouted while knocking aggressively.

‘Who is it?’, I asked.

However, the voice on the other end persisted:

‘Open up or we're going to shoot!’

The order had become a threat. I made an inference based on the man’s tone of voice.

‘They are from the Battalions of Dignity’, I whispered in my wife’s ear. ‘Quick, get your passport’.

I opened the door to see five guerrilla fighters of the battalion. Looking excited and nervous, they spoke in a hurried, desperate manner.

‘Where are you from?’, one of them asked.

My wife quickly handed him her Nicaraguan passport.

‘We are from Nicaragua’, she replied.

The bravest fighter checked the passport closely, which did not take him long.

‘And who is he?’, he asked as he fixed his gaze on me.

‘He’s my husband’, my wife said.

He looked at me carefully.

‘It is okay’, he said cautiously.

Then, he offered a warning:

he added, "Watch out, the gringos are on their way." ‘

‘How are you?’, he asked.

‘From Europe, a NATO plane is being coordinated to evacuate European citizens in Panama’, he said.

I thanked him warmly for calming our spirits. Now this was a diplomat who could do the job he was appointed to do.

Operation Just Cause had the sole mission of capturing General Noriega; but, by the fourth day, he could still not be found.

"I'll swing by in 15 minutes," she announced. "Make sure you're all set. Alright, we'll be waiting for you in the hotel lobby!"

Like a Mossad agent, Raquel carried out the rescue operation impeccably.

‘Damn my car has been stolen. They took my new blue Mercedes!’, she said in the car while driving. However, none of us paid any attention to what she was saying due to the war-like scenes around us.

I had known Isaac for several years. Over time, we had established a solid friendship, united by our shared enthusiasm for paintings. On several occasions, we had also done good business together.

‘What chucha does this cousin do in the gallery?’

‘Stop that, please. Do you want them to kill us because of you?’, I shouted. Then, pulling her by the arm, we ran out of the building together. Between the scene’s absurdity and complexity, Isaac looked happy about the harsh scolding he gave his wife in exquisite Chilean.

On the way home, we had to find shortcuts to move forward as mobs of looters had mobilised throughout the streets. On more than one occasion, shots rang out that made us stop for safety.

Back at the apartment, Isaac overflowed with joy and gratitude. He was thrilled to have his things safe, and he offered us all manner of attention.

"With a weight of 5 kilos and 535 grams, and a length of 54 centimeters, Moshe beamed with pride and declared, 'Ah, that's the beauty of nature!'"

There was also no shortage of the best Brazilian music. Isaac always offered everything.

‘Whatever you want, I’ll record it for you’, he promised.

I had never seen such a collection of records, and so carefully classified.

‘This car is mine!’, she shouted insistently at them.

Isaac was behind showing the photo that identified the Mercedes as her property. One of the members of the group, as if he were an authority, looked at Raquel.

‘The vehicle has been confiscated and declared useful for the war’, he said.

Raquel was not daunted.

‘War or anything—the car is mine!’, she retorted confrontationally.

Some in the crowd began to badmouth her.

‘Sold gringa!’, shouted one. ‘Get out of here!’

However, Raquel made such a fuss that they eventually gave in out of fatigue.

On Thursday 28th December, night had fallen when the phone rang.

‘It’s Harald, the ambassador’, Isaac said.

When I heard my friend’s voice, I was filled with emotion.

‘Fernando’, he told me, ‘NATO has obtained permission from the United States for a plane to land tomorrow in Panama. The plane will leave Panama City at 1 o'clock in the afternoon bound for San Jose, Costa Rica’.

‘What good news! What joy!’, I exclaimed.

The journey to the airport, which would normally take around 30 minutes, took more than 2.5 hours. Every time we encountered a U.S. Army barricade, Isaac got out of the car and walked purposefully, with a unique courage, toward the military personnel. He took his U.S. passport in his right hand and raised it high, while his pipe did not leave his left hand.

‘I’m an American’, he repeated, ‘and I've come to drop off my cousins who are going to leave on a NATO plane’.

The penultimate surprise came when we arrived at the airport, which was in ruins. There was no one to turn to and nowhere to go.

‘And what shall we do now?’, my wife asked. ‘Wait’, I answered. ‘We can only wait’.

Carter’s Panama Canal Treaties Symbolize How Much Washington Has Changed

To return the canal to Panama, President Jimmy Carter worked to change minds and build a bipartisan coalition that put aside short-term political considerations….

*Peter Baker published in The New York Times, dated January 2, 2025, and originating from Washington, D.C.

*Peter Baker is the chief White House correspondent for The Times. He has covered the last five presidents and sometimes writes analytical pieces that place presidents and their administrations in a larger context and historical framework.

When President Jimmy Carter traveled to Panama in June 1978 to finalize hotly disputed treaties turning over the Panama Canal, he declared that “we stand on the threshold of a new era.”

More than 46 years later, that era may be over, if President-elect Donald J. Trump has his way.

Mr. Carter always considered the twin treaties to be signature achievements that would figure prominently in his obituary. Indeed, for all the fireworks they generated at the time, the canal treaties have been broadly accepted ever since as a settled matter and the bedrock of the U.S. relationship with Latin America.

Yet paradoxically, just days before Mr. Carter’s death at age 100 on Sunday, Mr. Trump seemingly out of the blue propelled the nearly half-century-old issue back onto the national agenda, complaining about shipping fees and Chinese influence. If Panama does not make changes, he said, “we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America, in full, quickly and without question.”

Mr. Trump did not say how he would force such an outcome, and some analysts were skeptical that it amounted to more than a blustery bargaining position. But the timing of his threat focused new attention on an old issue, recalling an episode in Mr. Carter’s presidency that many Americans today may not remember or know much about.

“Through a bizarre accident of timing, we now have one president fantasizing about taking back the canal at just the time the world recognizes the canal transfer as an important part of a late president’s legacy,” said James Fallows, who was Mr. Carter’s speechwriter at the time and accompanied the president on that 1978 trip to Panama.

The story of Mr. Carter’s successful efforts to turn the canal over to Panama was one of the defining moments of his tenure and amounts to a case study in how much Washington has changed since then. Despite ferocious opposition on the political right led by a former California governor named Ronald Reagan, Mr. Carter managed what seems impossible to imagine today — a relentless drive that actually changed minds and built bipartisan support to do something with little political payoff and plenty of political risk.

By most accounts, the turnover of the canal improved U.S. relations in Latin America and stabilized the situation for U.S. shipping to avoid what many feared would be upheaval and even violence. The turnover was seen by opponents as a blow to American pride and national interests since, after all, the United States had built the canal. But even Mr. Reagan came to accept the treaties and never tried to upend them once he became president.

The issue was inherited by Mr. Carter, who by his own acknowledgment knew little about it when he first ran for president in 1976. The original Panama Canal treaty was signed in 1903. In one of the great engineering feats of modern history, the United States built the canal between 1904 and 1914, and operated it thereafter.

But over time, it became an issue of national pride for Panama, and mass riots in 1964 killed four American soldiers and 20 Panamanians. Panama’s government cut off diplomatic relations with the United States until President Lyndon B. Johnson agreed to negotiate a new treaty ceding sovereignty.

That effort broke down in 1968 when Brig. Gen. Omar Torrijos Herrera seized power in Panama in a military coup. President Richard M. Nixon eventually reopened negotiations in 1970 and President Gerald R. Ford continued them when he took over.

But Mr. Reagan, challenging Mr. Ford for the Republican nomination in 1976, made control of the canal a powerful attack line. “We bought it, we paid for it, we built it and we intend to keep it,” Mr. Reagan memorably declared.

Mr. Ford won the nomination but lost the general election to Mr. Carter. During the transition, Mr. Ford told his successor that the canal was a more pressing issue than Middle East peace or arms talks with the Soviet Union. To educate himself, Mr. Carter read “The Path Between the Seas,” David McCullough’s award-winning account of the building of the canal.

Mr. Reagan, left, made control of the canal a powerful attack line when he challenged President Gerald R. Ford, right, for the Republican presidential nomination in 1976. Mr. Ford won the primary, but lost the general election to Mr. Carter.Credit...Dirck Halstead/Getty Images

The new president came to see it as an issue of justice. “It’s obvious that we cheated the Panamanians out of their canal,” he wrote in his diary. In his memoir, he called tension over the canal a “diplomatic cancer.”

But it was also a matter of security. Military officials told Mr. Carter at the time that it would require up to 100,000 American troops to defend the canal against an uprising.

To overcome concerns about losing control, Mr. Carter negotiated two treaties with Panama. In addition to the main agreement outlining joint operation of the canal until its turnover by 2000, the second treaty stipulated that the canal would be neutral, with U.S. shipping guaranteed access, and that the United States would be permitted to use armed force to keep it open.

Mr. Carter invited leaders from across Latin America to a celebratory signing ceremony on Sept. 7, 1977, meant to highlight American respect for its neighbors. General Torrijos was so overcome by emotion that he broke down and sobbed in a private room with Mr. Carter before the ceremony.

But ratification in the Senate “seemed impossible,” as Mr. Carter recalled in his memoir, “Keeping Faith.” A Gallup poll showed that only 39 percent of Americans supported the treaties while 46 percent opposed them.

Mr. Carter was undaunted. A stubborn man who saw political expediency as a cardinal sin, he made ratification his top priority, working night and day to convince the public and the Senate. He teamed up with Senator Howard H. Baker Jr. of Tennessee, the Republican leader, while lobbying conservatives like Senator Barry M. Goldwater of Arizona and enlisting the aid of prominent Republicans like Mr. Ford and former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger.

He got help from influential conservative voices like William F. Buckley Jr., the founder of National Review, and even the iconic cowboy actor John Wayne, a strong Reagan ally. Mr. Wayne, whose first wife was Panamanian, even wrote a letter to his friend Mr. Reagan chastising him for “misinforming people.”

Mr. Carter was so personally invested that he kept a notebook on his desk with a section for each senator to record the latest information on their position. “It’s hard to concentrate on anything except Panama,” he told his diary.

His efforts shifted public sentiments, with polls now showing more support than opposition. But just two days before the first vote, he nearly despaired. “This has been one of the worst days, knowing that we were lost, then gaining a little hope,” he recorded in the diary.

On March 16, 1978, after 22 days of debate, the Senate voted on the second treaty first, on the assumption that it would be easier to support the agreement guaranteeing American rights to defend the canal. Mr. Carter listened in his private office, checking each senator’s vote on a tally sheet. “I had never been more tense in my life,” he wrote in his memoir. The treaty was approved 68 to 32, winning one vote more than necessary.

Mr. Carter and Brig. Gen. Omar Torrijos Herrera, the leader of Panama, after signing the ratified treaties in June 1978. “I had never been more tense in my life,” Mr. Carter wrote of the ratification vote in the U.S. Senate.Credit...Bettmann, via Getty Images

It was a major victory, but Mr. Carter still needed to push through the other, more disputed treaty. A key vote belonged to Senator S.I. Hayakawa, Republican of California.

A colorful character, Mr. Hayakawa gave Mr. Carter a copy of a book on semantics that he had written. Mr. Carter, ever the dutiful student, read it that night, then called the senator the next day and demonstrated enough knowledge to prove that he really had.

That still was not enough, so finally, playing to senatorial vanity, Mr. Baker arranged to call Mr. Carter with Mr. Hayakawa listening to ask if the president needed to meet occasionally with the California senator to get his advice on foreign affairs. “I gulped, thought for a few seconds, and replied, ‘Yes, I really do!’ hoping God would forgive me,” Mr. Carter later wrote.

Jonathan Alter, author of “His Very Best,” a 2020 biography of Mr. Carter, wrote that Mr. Hayakawa wanted Mr. Carter to commit to meeting every two weeks. “Sam, I couldn’t possibly limit our visits to every two weeks,” Mr. Carter replied cleverly. “I might want to hear your advice more often!” Mr. Hayakawa signed onto the treaty and, as Mr. Alter wrote, “that was the last time S.I. Hayakawa ever spoke to Jimmy Carter.”

The Senate approved the other treaty by the same 68 to 32 vote on April 18, 1978. Mr. Fallows, who just returned from a trip to the Panama Canal last month, called it “one of Jimmy Carter’s most important, if least remembered, diplomatic and legislative achievements.”

It came at a cost. Seven senators who voted for the treaties lost re-election just months later. But Mr. Reagan came to believe the treaties were worth keeping and thus ensured their survival, at least until now.

“Once he became president, he never revisited the issue and actually benefited policy-wise from Carter’s political courage in returning the canal to Panama,” said William Inboden, author of “The Peacemaker,” about Mr. Reagan’s foreign policy. “I think it is one of Carter’s most consequential Latin America foreign policy legacies.”

Still, Mr. Inboden, director of the Hamilton Center at the University of Florida, said that “while Trump’s musing about the U.S. retaking the canal is crass and unrealistic, it still highlights a serious concern about China’s growing influence in the region.”

But Mr. Alter said that Mr. Carter’s move had secured American interests. “That basic calculus has not changed,” he said on Thursday. “After all these years of Panama successfully running the canal, there’s no question that Trump breaking the treaties would lead to extensive violence, even war, there and a critical artery of global commerce would be at least temporarily shut.”

Before Trump Takes Office, Biden to Ban Drilling in Some Coastal Waters…

Move would be difficult for incoming administration to undo…

According to an article by Scott Patterson published in the Wall Street Journal on January 3, 2025.

WASHINGTON—President Biden is planning to ban oil and gas drilling in certain federal waters in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using a decades-old law that could make it difficult for the incoming Trump administration to reverse.

Here’s what to know about the expected ban:

The Details:

The decree, which could come as soon as next week, is expected to invoke the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, which gives the president wide latitude to withdraw from consideration currently unleased lands in federal offshore waters, according to people familiar with the White House plans. The law has been invoked a handful of times and doesn’t include a procedure for a new president to undo actions by a predecessor.

The law was tested during President-elect Donald Trump’s first administration, which attempted to reopen swaths of the Arctic Ocean that the Obama administration put off limits weeks before Trump first took office in 2017. A federal judge in 2019 ruled that Trump would need congressional authority to reopen drilling in the Arctic areas that Obama had banned.

“This is a disgraceful decision designed to exact political revenge on the American people who gave President Trump a mandate to increase drilling and lower gas prices,” Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. A White House official declined to comment.

Bloomberg earlier reported that Biden was preparing to issue the decree.

The Context:

Trump said on the campaign trail that he would unleash oil drilling in the U.S., part of his promise to rapidly cut American’s energy costs by 50% or more. He has argued that faster permitting, weakened environmental regulations and other measures will unleash production of oil and natural gas and push down prices at the pump.

U.S. oil production reached record levels under Biden, and it is unclear whether American oil giants favor massive increases in domestic drilling, which could further push down prices.

One of Biden’s chief policy efforts has been the advancement of clean-energy technologies that would help reduce the risk of climate change. Those technologies, which include electric vehicles and solar and wind energy, are meant to displace consumption of oil and gas, which produce greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

The fossil-fuel industry favors the less-restrictive policies of Trump, who has bashed Biden’s clean-energy agenda.

The Big Picture:

The last-minute move by Biden is part of a sweeping effort to shore up his environmental legacy in the final months of his administration, which is also distributing billions of dollars to safeguard favored projects before Trump takes office.

The administration has aimed to protect clean-energy projects at ports around the U.S. The Environmental Protection Agency in October awarded billions of dollars to dozens of ports to invest in new solar arrays, decarbonized trucks and other green equipment.

One of the Biden administration’s most aggressive moves is coming from a $400 billion clean-energy lending program inside the Energy Department. In December, the office said it would provide a record $15 billion low-interest loan commitment to California utility company PG&E to support hundreds of projects aimed at fighting the effects of climate change and improving the electrical grid.

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires…

1506 ET – Oil futures rise for a fifth straight session to close the week near a three-month high, helped by optimism about improved prospects for Chinese growth. “At the start of the year, geopolitical uncertainty and Chinese economic resurgence are aligning positively, contributing to the upward move in oil prices,” Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri says in a note. “Although the average market outlook for 2025 suggests crude oil prices will hover around the mid-$70s per barrel, geopolitical risks will remain a recurring factor capable of driving oil prices toward new equilibrium levels.” Greater optimism around industrial activity in China “may challenge the fundamental assumptions underpinning market forecasts,” he adds. WTI settles up 1.1% at $73.96 a barrel, and Brent advances 0.8% to $76.51 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1429 ET – Rising energy demand is expected to drive up investments in clean energy this year despite the uncertainties around the new Trump administration’s policies for the industry, says Michael Bonsignore, a partner at the corporate-and-finance practice of law firm Hogan Lovells. “The way we really see Trump 2.0, the pie is growing and the scale of investments is growing,” he says. As examples of nascent clean-energy markets prone to attract investments, he cites small modular reactors, green ammonia and hydrogen, as well as pipelines to transport the fuels. Bonsignore says there are a lot of ammonia projects in Louisiana and Eastern Texas. “In a new Trump administration, you could see that area growing and then a focus more on the midstream.” (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)

1332 ET – Rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. slipped by one this week to 482, while rigs directed at natural gas edged up by 1 to 103, oil services company Baker Hughes reports. Oil rigs averaged 480 in 4Q, versus 500 in 4Q23. U.S. producers have maintained record output with fewer rigs, with prospects of further increases this year. “We’ve gotten a lot more efficient. U.S. producers can make money at lower prices. Drilling longer laterals lowers your cost per barrel, and we’ve found better ways to complete the wells which lowers the cost per barrel,” says Adam Ferrari, CEO of Phoenix Capital Group, a small producer with current output around 20,000 barrels a day. “We’re going to continue to increase our production as long as prices remain within this $65-$75 range.” (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0936 ET – Crude futures are higher and heading for weekly gains as the New Year came in with optimism that Chinese economic stimulus could support demand in 2025, and U.S. crude oil stocks were reported down for a sixth consecutive week, although the size of last week’s draw was at the low end of estimates. “We see crude staying within a holding pattern as some positive signs of the China’s economy emerge,” Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. WTI is up 0.6% at $73.57 a barrel, and Brent is 0.4% higher at $76.20 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com

0337 ET – Tullow Oil’s successful tax resolution in Ghana removes a contingent liability and improves the company’s ability to refinance its debts, Davy Research analyst Colin Grant writes. Tullow is no longer liable for $320 million of taxes due to the Ghana revenue authority and will have no future exposure to branch profits remittance tax under its petroleum agreements, he says. The decision helps support the company’s other two tax cases in the country, Grant adds.

Germán & Co 1/2/25 Germán & Co 1/2/25

What Does Europe's Third Dark Day Mean for the Future of Energy?

What Implications Does Europe's Third Dark Day Hold for the Future of Energy?

On Tuesday, the price of natural gas in Europe surged to 50 euros (approximately $51.88) per megawatt hour, signifying a pivotal moment in the energy sector. On August 30 of the preceding year, Dmitry Peskov, a prominent spokesperson for the Kremlin, issued a significant warning regarding the consequences of terminating the transit agreement. He indicated that discontinuing this arrangement could adversely affect European consumers reliant on Russian gas, potentially resulting in increased costs for alternative energy sources, such as liquefied natural gas from the United States.

The situation is underscored by the adage "do not play with fire or you will get burned," which aptly reflects the seriousness of the current circumstances. The intricate interplay of political accountability reveals the volatile nature of sensitive issues that can destabilize equilibrium. In the political arena, certain topics resemble a precarious tightrope walk—where a single miscalculation could lead to significant repercussions. These issues often arise from entrenched historical, cultural, or ideological divisions, possessing the capacity to disrupt the delicate balance that sustains global order and cohesion.

On July 2, 2022, Russia made a strategic, albeit potentially misjudged, decision to curtail natural gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Concurrently, the Andromeda vessel covertly traversed the Baltic Sea, preparing for a clandestine operation known only to a select few. By September 26, the Andromeda executed its mission, resulting in explosions that severely impacted both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines.

On January 26, 2024, the Biden administration announced a suspension of new permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects directed at nations without a free trade agreement with the United States. Recently, Ukraine also decided to cease its natural gas exports to Europe (Andromeda 2), in accordance with a pre-war transit agreement, while Germany discreetly engages in diplomatic discussions with Russia.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“On Tuesday, the cost of natural gas in Europe soared to 50 euros (about $51.88) per megawatt hour, marking a significant moment in the energy market…

https://www.barrons.com/news/european-natural-gas-prices-reach-50-euros-per-mwh-91e89b12

On August 30 of the previous year, Dmitry Peskov, the wise voice of the Kremlin, delivered a crucial caution about the ramifications of ending the transit agreement. He suggested that pulling the plug on this deal could spell trouble for European consumers who depend on Russian gas, possibly leading to soaring prices for alternative energy options, such as liquefied natural gas from the U.S…

http://gasprocessingnews.com/news/2024/08/kremlin-says-europe-will-pay-more-unless-ukraine-extends-gas-transit-deal/

The road…

The age-old adage "don't play with fire or you'll get burned" captures the gravity of the situation at hand. The delicate dance of political accountability unveils the unpredictable nature of sensitive issues that can tip the scales of stability. In the realm of politics, some topics are like a tightrope walk—one misstep could send everything tumbling down. These matters often stem from deep-seated historical, cultural, or ideological rifts, holding the power to disrupt the fragile balance that upholds global order and unity.

On July 2, 2022, Russia executed a strategic (or potentially miscalculated) decision to reduce natural gas deliveries to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Meanwhile, the Andromeda vessel stealthily navigated the Baltic Sea, gearing up for a secretive mission known to a select few. By September 26, the Andromeda sprang into action, triggering explosions that rocked both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines.

On January 26, 2024, the Biden administration in Washington announced a halt on new permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects aimed at countries lacking a free trade agreement with the U.S. Just yesterday, Ukraine decided to halt its natural gas flow to Europe (Andromeda 2), adhering to a pre-war transit agreement, all while Germany quietly engages in peace talks with Russia.

The economic and political implications of Ukraine's role in gas transit are complex and multifaceted…

Whit the end of the five-year agreement expires governing one of the oldest and biggest economic links between Russia and Europe: the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. Nevertheless, this does not eliminate the possibility of Russian gas flowing through Ukraine in the future; in the ever-changing landscape of our virtual age, anything can happen.

In the wake of the geopolitical turmoil over the past two years, Russian gas now reaches Europe through two primary routes, each facilitating the transport of approximately 14 billion cubic meters of gas annually. The first route is the TurkStream pipeline, along with its extension, Balkan Stream, which traverses the Black Sea to Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary. The second route involves a corridor through Ukraine to Slovakia.

The principal purchasers of Russian gas include, Hungary, Austria, Italy, whose current administrations a pragmatic approach to foreign policy. Although Russian gas prices are now more closely aligned with European exchange rates than in the previous decade, they remain more economical than liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly during periods of price volatility. Consequently, some nations exhibit hesitance to completely cease their purchases of Russian gas, despite their commitment to the REPowerEU initiative, which aims for a complete phase-out of Russian gas by 2027.

European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson indicated to reporters at the close of the previous year that the prevailing scenario does not account for these supplies. The Austrian company OMV has expressed its willingness to continue purchasing Russian gas while simultaneously reserving capacity in pipelines and LNG receiving terminals to ensure it can operate independently.

Austria and Italy are expected to experience the least disruption from the cessation of Russian gas supplies. Austria benefits from multiple intersecting pipelines within its territory, while Italy has alternative sources, albeit at a higher cost, including gas imports from Algeria and Azerbaijan via pipelines, as well as several LNG terminals. Hungary's situation is somewhat more complex, as it could still receive Russian gas through TurkStream. Conversely, Slovakia has limited alternatives and would need to arrange for a reverse flow from the Austrian hub or receive gas through smaller German LNG terminals. Slovakia's position along the supply route means its ability to procure gas will depend on the sufficiency of supplies for Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has proposed that rather than the Ukrainian gas pipeline operator (OGTSU) entering into a transportation contract with Russia, European companies could sign such contracts, effectively purchasing gas at the Russia-Ukraine border and delegating the transportation to Ukraine.

After Ukraine cease the transit of Russian gas, the transit system operator may declare certain pipeline sections or infrastructure as decommissioned. However, if these assets are deemed operational, European companies could reserve transport capacity on a daily, monthly, or annual basis, similar to arrangements made for gas delivery from the LNG terminal in Belgium to domestic markets.

There are potential advantages for Ukraine in continuing to transport Russian gas. Mechanisms referred to as "virtual reverse" and "virtual transportation" have allowed Ukraine to sustain physical gas supplies even after halting purchases from Gazprom and shifting to European traders. Presently, despite a significant reduction in gas consumption due to the ongoing conflict and sufficient domestic deposits, this system remains beneficial.

The challenge lies in the geographical mismatch between gas extraction and consumption centers, which is where virtual transportation becomes relevant. Currently, the process of delivering gas from Ukrainian fields to consumers is effectively virtual: Russian gas is directed to certain regions, particularly in the south, while Ukrainian gas is funneled into the Slovak gas transportation system. Without an external supply of Russian gas, Ukraine would need to modify its pipeline infrastructure and operational procedures.

The situation may become increasingly complex if the Ukrainian economy recovers and gas demand rises. In the absence of Russian gas, Ukraine would need to procure gas from Austria, cover transit costs through Slovakia, and arrange for delivery from the western border to central consumption areas. At the current European gas exchange prices, physically reversing the flow would incur an additional cost of $30–40 per 1,000 cubic meters compared to the existing virtual reverse arrangement.

In 2022, Ukraine initiated the provision of large-scale gas storage facilities in the western part of the country to EU nations and intends to continue this practice. However, this operation heavily relies on virtual reverse and swap transactions, which depend on the ability to purchase gas at Austria's Baumgarten hub and transport it virtually to Ukrainian storage facilities without charge. The absence of Russian gas transit would complicate and increase the costs associated with such operations.

Russia would also face significant financial repercussions if it could no longer transport gas through Ukraine. There are no comparable alternative markets for the Yamal gas currently supplied to Europe, and this situation is unlikely to change substantially, even with the anticipated construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China (not expected before 2030) and an LNG facility in the Baltic Sea (planned for 2026–2027). The combined capacity of these two projects is approximately half of the volume by which supplies to Europe have already diminished.

According to Gazprom's Chief Financial Officer Famil Sadygov, the state-owned gas company's revenues from gas sales, both domestically and internationally, amounted to approximately $48 billion in 2023. Consequently, a loss of $7–8 billion annually in export revenues for 15 billion cubic meters of gas would represent a 15 percent reduction in revenue, significantly impacting Gazprom's gas business EBITDA (excluding its stake in Gazprom Neft).

Another concern for Gazprom involves the potential for financial damage claims from its European customers. Some of the company's long-term contracts with EU nations extend through 2040, and any failure to deliver gas due to issues with a transport company would be considered the supplier's responsibility. If Kyiv prohibits the transportation of Russian gas, this may be classified as force majeure, potentially absolving Gazprom of its delivery obligations. However, if the Ukrainian gas transit system operator simply ceases operations at the border metering station, declaring the route closed and halting gas acceptance from the Russian side, the situation would be markedly different.

Additionally, it is important to note that payments for Russian gas are processed by EU companies through Gazprombank, which means that neither the bank nor Gazprom itself would be subject to comprehensive blocking sanctions while the transaction remains active.

While it may currently be challenging to envision a restoration of relations post-conflict, it is noteworthy that returning to previous supply levels from a reduced baseline under an existing contract is generally more feasible than re-establishing completely severed ties and negotiating new contracts. For Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, the flow of Russian gas and the ability to halt it represent one of the few remaining avenues for escalation.

From a pragmatic perspective, the continuation of gas transit beyond the end of 2024 is likely to yield benefits for both Russia and Ukraine, as well as for European nations that persist in purchasing Russian gas.

The landscape may shift in 2026–2027, when substantial new volumes of LNG from the United States and Qatar are expected to enter the market. It is conceivable that supply growth could outpace demand growth, leading to a significant decline in LNG prices. Consequently, it may become more economically viable for EU countries to forgo Russian gas, intensifying political pressure as the deadlines outlined in the REPowerEU initiative approach.

Nonetheless, numerous uncertainties remain in this scenario. The Biden administration in Washington has announced a pause on granting new LNG projects the authority to export to countries lacking a free trade agreement with the United States. While this will not impact market dynamics in 2026, it may lead European buyers to question the reliability and sustainability of U.S. LNG supplies, potentially prompting them to retain alternative options, including continued engagement with Russia.

To wrap things up, natural gas has become a powerful player on the geopolitical stage, capable of sparking tensions and disputes. Europe finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with a tough choice: should it keep battling against imperial Russia or shift gears to foster trade ties with them?

Today…

Ukraine Halts Flow of Natural Gas From Russia to Europe…

TIME, penned by HANNA ARHIROVA and JOANNA KOZLOWSKA of AP on the first day of 2025.

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In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

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https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1874690656192372746

Ukraine Halts Flow of Natural Gas From Russia to Europe…

TIME, penned by HANNA ARHIROVA and JOANNA KOZLOWSKA of AP on the first day of 2025.

Ukraine on Wednesday halted Russian gas supplies to European customers through its pipeline network after a prewar transit deal expired at the end of 2024 and almost three years into Moscow’s all-out invasion of its neighbor.

Even as Russian troops and tanks moved into Ukraine in February 2022, Russian natural gas kept flowing through the country’s pipeline network — set up when Ukraine and Russia were both part of the Soviet Union — to Europe, under a five-year agreement.

Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom earned money from the gas and Ukraine collected transit fees.

Ukraine’s energy minister, Herman Halushchenko, confirmed Kyiv had stopped the transit “in the interest of national security.”

“This is a historic event. Russia is losing markets and will incur financial losses,” Halushchenko said Wednesday on the Telegram messaging app. “Europe has already decided to phase out Russian gas, and (this) aligns with what Ukraine has done today.”

At a summit in Brussels last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that Kyiv would not allow Moscow to use the transits to earn “additional billions … on our blood, on the lives of our citizens.” However, he briefly held open the possibility of the gas flows continuing if payments to Russia were withheld until the war ends.

Gazprom said in a statement Wednesday it “has no technical and legal possibility” of sending gas through Ukraine, due to Kyiv’s refusal to extend the deal.

Before the war, Russia supplied nearly 40% of the European Union’s pipeline natural gas. Gas flowed through four pipeline systems, one under the Baltic Sea, one through Belarus and Poland, one through Ukraine and one under the Black Sea through Turkey to Bulgaria.

After the war started, Russia cut off most supplies through the Baltic and Belarus-Poland pipelines, citing disputes over a demand for payment in rubles. The Baltic pipeline was blown up in an act of sabotage, but details of the attack remain murky.

The Russian cutoff caused an energy crisis in Europe. Germany had to shell out billions of euros to set up floating terminals to import liquefied natural gas that comes by ship, not by pipeline. Users cut back as prices soared. Norway and the United States filled the gap, becoming the two largest suppliers.

Europe viewed the Russian cutoff as energy blackmail and has outlined plans to completely eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027.

Zelenskyy said Wednesday that halting the transits would see Moscow lose “one of the most profitable and geographically accessible markets” for its gas. In a post on X, he said Russia was “resorting to cynical blackmail of partners.”

Russia’s share of the EU pipeline natural gas market dropped sharply to about 8% in 2023, according to data from the EU Commission. The Ukrainian transit route served EU members Austria and Slovakia, which long got the bulk of their natural gas from Russia but have recently scrambled to diversify supplies.

Gazprom halted supplies to Austria’s OMV in mid-November over a contractual dispute, but gas flows through Ukraine’s pipelines continued as other customers stepped in. Slovakia this year inked deals to begin buying natural gas from Azerbaijan, and also to import U.S. liquefied natural gas through a pipeline from Poland.

Among the hardest-hit will be EU candidate country Moldova, which was receiving Russian gas via Ukraine and has brought in emergency measures as residents brace for a harsh winter and looming power cuts.

Separately from Kyiv’s decision to let the transit deal expire, Gazprom said last month it will halt gas supplies to Moldova starting on Jan. 1, citing unpaid debt. Gazprom has said Moldova owes close to $709 million for past gas supplies, a figure the country has fiercely disputed.

Heating and hot water supplies were abruptly cut off Wednesday to households in Transnistria, Moldova’s breakaway region that has for decades hosted Russian troops, as Russian natural gas stopped flowing to the territory, local transit operator Tiraspoltransgaz-Transnistria said.

In an online statement, the company urged residents to gather household members together in a single room, hang blankets over windows and balcony doors, and use electric heaters. It said some key facilities, including hospitals, were exempt from the cuts.

On Dec. 13, Moldova’s parliament voted in favor of imposing a state of emergency in the energy sector, as fears mounted that the gas shortages could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, for decades dependent on Russian energy supplies.

Many observers have predicted that the looming energy shortage could force people in the separatist territory to travel to Moldova proper, seeking basic amenities to get through the harsh winter and placing further strain on resources.

Moldova, Ukraine and EU politicians have repeatedly accused Moscow of weaponizing energy supplies.

On Wednesday, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski called Ukraine’s move to halt supplies a win for those opposed to the Kremlin’s policies. In a post on X, Sikorski accused Moscow of systematic attempts to “blackmail Eastern Europe with the threat of cutting off gas supplies,” including through a Baltic pipeline bypassing Ukraine and Poland and running directly to Germany.

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico claimed Wednesday the end of gas flows via Ukraine “will drastically affect us all in the EU but not Russia.”

Fico, whose views on Russia have sharply differed from the European mainstream, has previously criticized Kyiv’s refusal to extend the transit deal, and threatened to end electricity supplies to Ukraine in response.

Moscow can still send gas to Hungary, as well as non-EU states Turkey and Serbia, through the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea.

The steady reduction of Russian gas supplies to European countries has also spurred them to hasten the integration of Ukraine’s energy grids with its neighbors to the west.

Last week, private Ukrainian energy utility DTEK said it had received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., delivered through a newly expanded network spanning six countries from Greece to Ukraine — a significant step in reducing regional dependence on Russian energy.

Germán & Co 12/17/24 Germán & Co 12/17/24

(NYT) ”The Panama Canal Has a Big Problem, but It’s Not China or Trump…

Reagan's Retreat from Panama: Will Trump Imitate Him?

Recently, Donald Trump seemed to lack a common trait of authoritarian leaders: the desire for territorial conquest. Although he briefly considered acquiring Greenland during his first term, this idea was dismissed as a whimsical fantasy by Denmark. Yet, as the holiday season approached, Trump revived this notion, presenting it as more than just a quirky trophy for his electoral victory.

His cheeky jab at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him "governor," and failed attempts to involve hockey legend Wayne Gretzky in politics were more than playful banter. This also includes his bold threats about the Panama Canal, a vital artery for global trade.

The president-elect's remarks suggest expansionist ambitions. While he cannot annex or intimidate nations—like the other 193 resisting U.S. pressure—he may use military power to pursue goals beyond securing rare earth minerals (Greenland), enhancing border security (Canada), and reducing shipping costs (Panama). Trump seems to seek a new world order marked by political turmoil, aligning with authoritarian leaders while leaving democratic allies vulnerable to capitulation.

This pattern raises concerns about Trump's erratic behavior during the festive season. Authoritarian leaders often exploit perceived national security threats to justify foreign interventions that enhance their power. While Trump avoided military entanglements in his first term, China's growing influence may soon provide a justification for military action.

Trump resembles Kaiser Wilhelm II more than Adolf Hitler, as both share a brash nationalism that contributed to global conflict. John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, warned that a major international crisis is "much more likely" if Trump wins a second term.

While Greenland and Canada are unlikely battlegrounds, Panama may be at risk. Trump recently criticized Jimmy Carter for "foolishly" transferring control of the canal to Panama through narrowly passed treaties in 1978. The Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that rejecting these treaties could incite violence in Panama, potentially requiring the deployment of 100,000 U.S. troops—echoing a Vietnam War scenario in our hemisphere.

In 1976, Ronald Reagan nearly secured the Republican nomination against President Gerald Ford with his bold claim, "We bought it, we paid for it, it’s ours." Despite advice to delay the Panama Canal treaties until a potential second term, Carter pressed on, leading to the loss of several Democratic Senate seats due to their support for ratification. (NYT, Today)

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“January 2025”, A New Year Marked By Uncertainty And Challenges...

In the United States, the assumption of the presidency of President Donald Trump to a new mandate. Meanwhile, the European Union faces, Ukraine halts the flow of natural gas from to the continent. Germany, in his New Year's address, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz asserted that the outcome of the German elections will not be determined by the proprietors of social media platforms. Venezuela, in the midst of endless rumours, is waiting for its 'D' day to change its destiny... What will happen on 10 January remains to be seen... maybe. Furthermore, Denmark and Panama, these two small countries, are looking forward to the next months of foreign policy, no doubt with caution and above all in the hope that the "carrot and stick" law will not be imposed.

Greetings to all, and best wishes for a prosperous and healthy year in 2025…

The year 2024 has been characterized by many as a “horribilis annus”, culminating in a series of fatal plane crashes across various regions. As we transition into 2025, it is reasonable to designate this new year as one marked by “incertus”.

The blog's analysis is largely accurate, the exception President Donald Trump's unforeseen challenge to Panama regarding canal fees. We have analyzed the geopolitical issues of both canals. The Panama accounts for 5% of the world trade, the Suez Canal accounts for %.

The Panamanian authorities' reassurances to their citizens regarding the sovereignty of the waterway are certainly valid. However, it is clear that they are also mindful of December 20, 1989, when United States military forces swiftly took control of the country in a few hours with minimal resistance, despite the presence of the "Battalions of Dignity" and a significant Cuban presence.

The situation concerning Greenland is less unexpected, as it represents a recurring theme in the foreign policy dynamics between the two nations.

Regarding energy policy, the article titled: "Musk believes in global warming. Trump doesn't. Will That Change?" published by the New York Times on November 8, 2024, may provide valuable insights. “Elon Musk has consistently acknowledged climate change as a significant issue, although he has occasionally fluctuated in his assessment of its urgency. He has been a longstanding advocate for the transition to low-emission technologies, including solar energy, battery storage, and electric vehicles. In a biography released last year by Walter Isaacson, it was noted that Mr. Musk's interest in solar power and electric vehicles originated during his college years, driven by his concerns about the threats posed by global warming and the potential depletion of fossil fuel resources”.

In this uncertain year, we can only wish them all the best for 2025.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1874473445569831024

The Panama Canal Has a Big Problem, but It’s Not China or Trump…

New York Times, January 1, 2025, Dennis M. Hogan

Dr. Hogan teaches in the History and Literature program at Harvard University. His research focuses on Central America and the United States in the 19th and 20th centuries.

In 2023, on a research trip to Panama, I booked a day tour of the Panama Canal. I expected to hear the usual story about the canal’s epic construction, importance in world trade and successful expansion to allow for larger modern ships. What I did not expect was the overwhelming sense of concern, even panic, among people who depend on the canal for their livelihoods.

It was July, the middle of Panama’s rainy season. But the rains had been sparse, and water levels in the canal had sunk to troubling lows. Without freshwater from rain, our guide explained, the locks on the canal could not operate.

I remembered that visit after President-elect Donald Trump said recently that the Chinese were threatening America’s interests at the canal, and he engaged in some saber rattling by suggesting that the United States could take back control of the passage, which was returned to Panama exactly 25 years ago Tuesday. The handover treaties were a signature achievement of President Jimmy Carter, who died on Sunday; Mr. Trump’s comments were in keeping with longstanding criticism that the move was a strategic mistake.

But Mr. Trump misunderstands the true threat to U.S. commerce through Panama. If the goal is securing affordable access to the transit point over the long term, it is climate change, not Chinese influence, that U.S. policymakers should worry about.

Here’s why. Sending a single ship through the canal’s locks can use around 50 million gallons of water, mainly freshwater collected from Lake Gatún. Though the canal is, for the moment, operating at full capacity, a drier climate and greater demand for drinking water have in recent years reduced the volume of available water. That has forced the state-run Panama Canal Authority at times to limit the number of daily passages through the canal, at one point by as much as 40 percent.

A changing climate, a changing world..

Climate change around the world: In “Postcards From a World on Fire,” 193 stories from individual countries show how climate change is reshaping reality everywhere, from dying coral reefs in Fiji to disappearing oases in Morocco and far, far beyond.

The role of our leaders: Writing at the end of 2020, Al Gore, the 45th vice president of the United States, found reasons for optimism in the Biden presidency, a feeling perhaps borne out by the passing of major climate legislation. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been criticisms. For example, Charles Harvey and Kurt House argue that subsidies for climate capture technology will ultimately be a waste.

The worst climate risks, mapped: In this feature, select a country, and we'll break down the climate hazards it faces. In the case of America, our maps, developed with experts, show where extreme heat is causing the most deaths.

What people can do: Justin Gillis and Hal Harvey describe the types of local activism that might be needed, while Saul Griffith points to how Australia shows the way on rooftop solar. Meanwhile, small changes at the office might be one good way to cut significant emissions, writes Carlos Gamarra.

With less rain, the reservoirs fill up more slowly, which means less water available to operate the locks, which means fewer ships can pass. Hence, the 2023-24 drought, among the worst on record, slowed transits and drove up transit prices, causing long delays, more expensive consumer goods and greater instability in shipping routes. These were probably the increases Mr. Trump referred to as a “rip-off.”

The limited number of passages has led to auctions for passage rights that further inflated the growing cost of shipping goods through the canal (the canal authority had increased tolls just before the 2023 drought began). In the short term, reduced access causes goods to take longer to reach their destinations, and they cost more when they do arrive. Over the medium term, companies have begun to seek alternate routes and different methods of moving goods. Some projects, like a railway corridor across southern Mexico, have emerged to directly compete with the Panama Canal. Over the long term, as trade volume and ship sizes increase while the amount of available water decreases, the canal could well lose market share, declining in both usefulness and strategic importance.

The 2023-24 drought was due in part to a strong El Niño effect, as rising seawater surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean altered weather patterns worldwide. Scientists generally agree that climate change is making El Niño events more frequent and more severe. Higher temperatures have increased the evaporation of water off the reservoir, too, further reducing the water supply.

Mr. Trump’s insinuations about Chinese influence and his demands for lower transit fees, or the canal’s return to U.S. control, have of course not won him admiration in Panama, least of all among civic leaders more concerned with solving the canal’s challenges.

In recent days, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama has repeatedly rejected accusations of Chinese influence. He declared at a news conference last week that “the Panama Canal is Panamanian and belongs to Panamanians” and that Panamanian control of the waterway had cost the country “blood, sweat and tears.” There is no legal mechanism by which Mr. Trump might demand its return.

Panamanians are rightly proud of their administration of the canal over the past 25 years; in suggesting that the United States retains any claim to it, Mr. Trump risks alienating a country that remains friendly to the United States despite a long history of U.S. arrogance toward the Panamanian people.

Panama has been a global crossroads since the 19th century. A sea route across the isthmus was first imagined by the Spanish in the 16th century; the overland route between the oceans rose to prominence in the 1840s and 1850s during the California Gold Rush. Through the 19th century, the United States competed against other imperial powers, mainly Britain and France, for land and influence in Central America. Controlling Panama was a key feature of the American rise to hemispheric dominance and overseas empire in the wake of the Spanish-American War of 1898.

Panamanians have benefited from that competition, but they have equally been victimized by it: Panama became independent in 1903, but sovereignty came at the cost of ceding the Canal Zone to the United States. Both before and after the construction of the canal, U.S. military intervention was a constant threat. Since the 1840s, the United States has intervened frequently to protect its commercial interests in Panama. U.S. troops deployed to Panama 13 times between 1856 and 1903 alone. Most seriously, the 1989 invasion resulted in the death of hundreds of Panamanian civilians, although unofficial estimates put the number in the thousands.

The history of U.S.-Panama relations is neither simple nor straightforward. The United States built the canal, and, what’s more, without support from the U.S. military, Panama would likely never have been able to secede from Colombia and establish itself as an independent nation. The United States has served as an occupier, but also a major trading partner, ally and source of cultural influence.

Many Americans have Panamanian roots and an increasing number of Americans live in Panama. Now migrants from places such as Haiti and Venezuela are crossing the Daríén Gap straddling Colombia and Panama en route to the United States, prompting a fresh humanitarian emergency and new challenges for both Panama and the United States. These are nations whose fates are tied together.

From Panama to Greenland, Mr. Trump’s expansionist ambitions point to a larger truth: In a world increasingly dependent on extended supply chains that crisscross the globe, mastery of logistics translates to economic security. Taking Pama (as Teddy Roosevelt did), Mr. Trump imagines, might secure U.S. access to the canal, while buying Greenland (as he has also suggested) would guarantee a U.S. presence at the entrance to a future northwest passage through the melting Arctic ice. In Mr. Trump’s view of international competition, it seems sea routes are to be seized, controlled and monopolized — not shared among nations with equal access to all — as is the Panama Canal.

Costs of transiting the canal are going up. But neither so-called Panamanian greed nor Chinese influence determines these costs. The truth is more straightforward, if more daunting: If we want to ensure fair, equal and sustainable access to the canal, it is climate change we’ll have to beat — not the Chinese.

Trump Wants U.S. Control of the Panama Canal. Here Are 3 Things to Know…

Treaties ratified by the Senate in 1978 established permanent neutrality, but some Republicans regret that decision. President-elect Donald J. Trump stated that Panama charges U.S. vessels "exorbitant prices" to transit the Panama Canal.

NYT by Lisa Friedman, December 26, 2024.

President-elect Donald J. Trump this week escalated his threats to retake control of the Panama Canal, falsely accusing Panama of allowing Chinese soldiers to control the vital shipping route and of overcharging American ships.

Mr. Trump has claimed Panama charges U.S. vessels “exorbitant prices” and warned that if they are not reduced after he takes office next month, he will demand that the United States be granted control of the canal “in full, quickly and without question.”

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump went on another tear. Announcing his choice for ambassador to the central American nation, Kevin Marino Cabrera, he accused the Panamanian government of “ripping us off on the Panama Canal, far beyond their wildest dreams.” In a holiday screed on his social media site, Truth Social, Mr. Trump wished a merry Christmas to “the wonderful soldiers of China” who he inaccurately said were operating the canal, and griped that the United States “puts in Billions of Dollars” for canal maintenance “but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”

While it is unclear what prompted Mr. Trump’s recent obsession with the Panama Canal, some Republicans have long objected to turning it over to Panamanian control. When Ronald Reagan ran for president, he said the people of the United States were the canal’s “rightful owners” and brought audiences to their feet with the line: “We bought it; we paid for it; we built it.”

The United States under President Jimmy Carter’s administration entered into two treaties, culminating in formally turning over control of the canal to the Panamanians on Dec. 31, 1999.

“There’s a certain wing of the Republican Party that’s always been skeptical of the handover,” said Ryan C. Berg, the director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

“Complaints tend to crop up around the anniversary, and now that seems to be coming to a head because of the China issue and the desire to compete with China in the region,” he said.

Here’s three important things to know about the Panama Canal as the issue moves forward.

Who Owns the Panama Canal?

The Panama Canal was built by the United States between 1904 and 1914, and the U.S. government managed it for several decades. That situation created significant tensions with Panama over the years, and in 1964, anti-American riots broke out in the canal zone.

The riots led to the renegotiation of the Panama Canal treaties, and in 1977 Mr. Carter and the Panamanian leader Omar Efraín Torrijos signed the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. The pair of agreements guaranteed the permanent neutrality of the Panama Canal. After a period of joint custody, the treaties called for the United States to relinquish control over the canal by the year 2000.

Panama took full control in 1999, and has since operated the canal through the Panama Canal Authority.

In a statement of rebuke to Mr. Trump on Sunday, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama said “every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area belong to PANAMA.”

Mr. Mulino says U.S. vessels are not being overcharged.

Rates being charged to ships and naval vessels, he insisted, are “not on a whim.”

A Trump spokeswoman said that because the United States is the biggest user of the canal, the increase in fees hits its ships the most.

Panamanian officials said all countries are subject to the same fees, though they would differ based on ship size. They are established in public meetings by the Panama Canal Authority, and take into account market conditions, international competition, operating and maintenance costs, Mr. Mulino said.

Rates have gone up recently, however. That’s because starting in 2023, Panama experienced severe drought, driven by a combination of El Niño and climate change. With water levels at Gatun Lake, the principal hydrological reserve for the canal, at historically low levels, authorities reduced shipping through the canal to conserve the lake’s fresh water.

Mr. Trump has called climate change a hoax.

Does China control the Panama Canal?

Chinese soldiers are not, as Mr. Trump has claimed, “operating” the Panama Canal.

“There are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for the love of God,” Mr. Mulino said in a speech Thursday. “The world is free to visit the canal.”

A Hong Kong-based firm, CK Hutchison Holdings, does manage two ports at the canal’s entrances. And some experts have said that does raise valid competitive and security concerns for the United States because Hong Kong is now part of China.

For example, Mr. Berg noted, the company would likely have data on all ships coming through the Panama Canal, giving it a data advantage. China also has been using its shipping and maritime operations to gather foreign intelligence and conduct espionage.

“China exercises, or could exercise, a certain element of control even absent some military conflagration,” Mr. Berg said. “I think there is reason to be worried.”

Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said Tuesday that China “will as always respect Panama’s sovereignty” over the Panama Canal.

China is the second-largest user of the Panama Canal after the United States. In 2017, Panama cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognized it as part of China, a major win for Beijing.

Can the United States Reassert Control?

Not easily.

Mr. Mulino has made clear the Panama Canal is not for sale. He noted that the treaties established permanent neutrality of the canal and “guaranteeing its open and safe operation for all nations.” And the Senate ratified the Panama Canal treaties in 1978.

Mick Mulvaney, Mr. Trump’s former chief of staff, suggested that the provocations were merely part of a negotiating tactic to get rates down.

“You know, I don’t envision American troops going in to retake the canal, but you got to think that someone is out there scratching their head going, ‘Is Donald Trump crazy enough to do something like that?’” Mr. Mulvaney said Tuesday on “The Hill” on NewsNation.

Mr. Berg said the neutrality agreement made it unlikely that Panama would even be able to grant special rates to the United States. And, he noted, Mr. Mulino is “incredibly pro-American” and likely eager to help the incoming Trump administration deal with issues like illegal immigration.

“President Mulino is going to be a great ally with the United States,” Mr. Berg said. “We should not want this to devolve into some kind of political fight because we’re going to need President Mulino on a number of other issues.”

Germán & Co 12/10/24 Germán & Co 12/10/24

South American and Caribbean Natural Gas: A Strategic Asset in Uncertain Times…

“Cosmic forces have aligned to awaken the dormant natural gas reserves in Latin America's heart, preparing them for their moment to shine…

“The natural gas surge in the Dominican Republic, led by AES Dominicana, is a game-changer that is creating new opportunities.

“Cheers to Our Success! —Merco 2024 has recognized AES Dominicana as the foremost powerhouse in the energy sector of the Dominicancong, and we have also secured a position among the Top most reputable communications teams. This prestigious accolade, endorsed by KPMG a testament to our unwavering commitment to sustainability, excellence, and responsible energy production. Ricardo Manuel Falú serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, President of the New Technologies Strategic Business Unit at the AES Corporation.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“Cosmic forces have aligned to awaken the dormant natural gas reserves in Latin America's heart, preparing them for their moment to shine…

“The natural gas surge in the Dominican Republic, led by AES Dominicana, is a game-changer that is creating new opportunities.

“Cheers to Our Success! —Merco 2024 has recognized AES Dominicana as the foremost powerhouse in the energy sector of the Dominican Republic, and we have also secured a position among the Top  most reputable communications teams. This prestigious accolade, endorsed by KPMG a testament to our unwavering commitment to sustainability, excellence, and responsible energy production.                                                                                                                                          Ricardo Manuel Falú serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, President of the New Technologies Strategic Business Unit at the AES Corporation.

Greetings, everyone! Wishing you a wonderful Wednesday filled with abundant health and love!

In a recent burst of insight—a vuelapluma—(1) concerning the 'Syria narrowed future' case, highlighted by the blog on Sunday the 9th, it becomes clear that the complex bond between Turkey's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, plays a crucial role in this unfolding narrative. The multifaceted factors that determine a country's geopolitical power, with financial strength playing a key role, are crucial to understand. The significant influence of natural gas on the global energy markets cannot be overstated, and the decisions of leaders like Putin and Erdoğan carry weighty consequences for the energy industry.(2) Turkey's strategic position as a conduit for natural gas between Asia and Europe could greatly affect regional economies. Despite its importance, the robust relationship between Erdoğan and Putin and the geopolitical significance of Syria for Russia were not addressed. The future of Syria remains enigmatic, potentially mirroring Afghanistan's turbulent history and its issues with Al-Qaeda. The only certainty in these times is the global conflict that is directly influencing fuel supply routes. Other pressing issues, such as the volatile situation in South Korea, must also be taken into account. Moreover, the sudden collapse of the Al-Assad regime is a development that warrants attention…(3) That say, the fact is today. One week before the HTS offensive aimed at overthrowing Al-Assad, the leader of the group, Abu Mohammed al Jawlani, convened with the intelligence directors from Turkey, the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and likely the United Arab Emirates in the southern region of the country, which serves as the operational base for the rebel faction. This meeting marked a departure from previous discussions that had only included Turkey, Russia, and Iran. During this gathering, al Jawlani was informed that Russia would not extend its protection to Al-Assad, as the Kremlin's strategic interests—including its air and naval bases, as well as its oil and gas concessions—would remain unaffected (4). And the nation's political future remained in a precarious grey area, also known as No Man's Land. (5)

Let’s take a moment to highlight the remarkable natural gas molecule—an invisible, odorless, and non-toxic gem in the energy landscape. This fascinating compound, primarily composed of methane, features a straightforward structure with just one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms. Whether hailed as a hero or criticized as a villain, it’s clear that natural gas will stay a prized resource in the energy sector for many years to come.

Well, the American continent is marked by a multifaceted geopolitical landscape, particularly observable in the northern region, where the border reflects the divergent interests linked to tequila and bourbon. Central America has undergone considerable turmoil, mirroring the volatility of its volcanoes in recent decades. In South America, the foundations of democracy have been firmly laid.; but, two nations continue to face challenges related to post-colonial instability. Just, a single country appears to have “temporarily” misplaced its sense of social cohesion. Despite these difficulties, the regions a promising environment for investment compared to other global contexts.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

(1) -A vuelapluma: adverb: quickly ⧫ without much thought

(2) https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/09/russia-takes-a-political-military-and-economic-hit-as-syrias-assad-falls-from-power-a87266

(3) https://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-says-syrias-al-assad-115810417.html?

(4) https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/siria-damasco-rebeldes-regimen-caido-bashar-al-assad-conclusiones-tv (Profesor Joseph Hague)

(5) https://www.cato.org/multimedia/power-problems/fall-assad-syrias-uncertain-future

Drill, baby, drill…

In 2022, the United States reported a substantial volume of natural gas reserves, totaling around 691 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), as indicated in the United States Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves report. This figure, noted as of December 31, 2022, and categorized as wet gas, is indeed significant. Nonetheless, this places the United States in the fourth position globally in terms of natural gas reserves, trailing behind Russia, Iran, and Qatar.

South America: An Emerging Leader in Drilling Ventures…

South America is witnessing a revival as a significant site for drilling activities, boasting an estimated 13.4 trillion cubic meters of commercially viable natural gas reserves. Venezuela is at the forefront, possessing the largest proven reserves on the continent, which amount to 203 trillion cubic feet, positioning it ninth globally and surpassing both the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. It is noteworthy that over 80% of these reserves are associated with oil deposits. As the global focus shifts towards sustainable energy solutions, Venezuela's extensive natural gas reserves represent a critical asset for fulfilling international energy demands.

In addition, Brazil, under the leadership of President Inacio Lula da Silva, who is currently recovering from emergency cranial hemorrhage surgery in São Paulo, holds the second-largest reserves in South America, estimated at 14.4 trillion cubic feet, primarily situated in offshore pre-salt fields that are linked to oil extraction.

Argentina, led by President Javier Milei, has seen its proven natural gas reserves increase to 15.4 trillion cubic feet, marking an 11% rise from the previous year and a threefold increase over the past decade. This growth is largely attributed to the advancement of the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which gained momentum in 2013 following the nationalization of YPF, previously owned by Repsol, during Cristina de Kirchner's administration.

Conversely, Bolivia, which was once a significant player in the southern cone natural gas market, is currently experiencing a decline in its fossil fuel sector. The country's proven reserves are estimated at 9 trillion cubic feet, a decrease from 11 trillion a decade ago, indicative of a broader downturn in the industry. As of June 2023, Bolivia's natural gas production was reported to be 1.25 billion cubic feet.

Caribbean Natural Gas: A Vital Resource in Unpredictable Times…

Despite facing severe hurricanes, the Caribbean's natural gas industry continues to thrive. In a landscape characterized by unpredictable shifts, global conflicts affecting the energy market, the region is emerging as a key energy player with considerable potential. At the hearth to this transformation is natural gas, poised to reshape the Caribbean's energy landscape. Currently, other areas of the world are facing significant risks related to drilling and transporting fuel. For instance, a tanker bound for Syria with Iranian crude oil reversed course following the downfall of Assad, as reported by BNN Bloomberg, yesterday.

The region stands on the brink of an energy revolution, timely driven by the recent discoveries of natural gas in Guyana and Suriname. These findings have sparked economic growth, especially in Guyana. As Guyana reaps the benefits of these developments, Suriname is poised to leverage its untapped potential.

Trinidad and Tobago, traditionally a powerhouse in the Caribbean energy sector, produces approximately 2.58 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas. However, signs indicate a decline in traditional oil and gas production. The Caribbean energy sector's success extends beyond individual national accomplishments, highlighting the significance of regional collaboration. The strategic alliance between Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago is crucial, providing significant economic and operational advantages, according to Melanie Chen, Founding Chair of the Caribbean, in an interview conducted in June of this year.

She stated that natural gas is increasingly acknowledged as a crucial transitional fuel that can aid in the move towards a more sustainable energy future while maintaining economic stability. By combining their resources and knowledge, these countries can maximize their natural gas reserves to create a more robust and integrated energy network, lessen dependence on imported fuels, and lower energy costs for their citizens.

Furthermore, Chen underscored the significant economic impact of natural gas in the Caribbean, observing that the exploitation of these resources could generate employment, boost industrial expansion, and improve energy security. She stressed that the prompt commercialization of oil and gas reserves is critical for the sustainable economic progress of the Southern Caribbean.

Natural gas serves as a cleaner alternative to traditional fossil fuels and aids in the integration of renewable energy by providing grid stability and backup power. Its dual role is essential for the region's energy strategy, offering immediate economic benefits and supporting long-term sustainability goals.

Transitioning to a natural gas-focused future presents challenges, including significant infrastructure investments for extraction, processing, and distribution. Upgrading transmission grids and expanding battery storage are crucial for a modern energy infrastructure.

The high initial costs could be a hurdle, especially for smaller Caribbean nations with limited funds. However, a mix of public and private investments and international cooperation is proposed to fund these projects, emphasizing a comprehensive funding strategy involving government spending, concessional financing, and public-private partnerships.

Natural Gas Expansion: Transforming the Dominican Republic's Energy Sector…

Introduction to the Voyage of Existence for the Better...

Image…

“Imagine a world where the skies gift us with electrical rainfall, a phenomenon where energy cascades from the heavens, promising to power our dreams and innovations. This is not just a flight of fancy, but a vision of a future where renewable energy is as natural and abundant as the rain that nourishes our earth. In this blog entry, we'll explore the exciting possibilities of harnessing the power of electrical storms, turning the might of nature into a sustainable source that could light up our cities and homes, and spark a revolution in how we think about and use energy. Join us on this electrifying journey as we delve into the potential of electrical rainfall and its role in powering a brighter, cleaner future. Imagine if we could store all this wonderful energy...

Big shoutout to AES Dominicana for their amazing support and unwavering commitment...

During a rainy season day in 1990, the power of the Caribbean Sea was tangible along the Santo Domingo boardwalk, where it relentlessly battered against George Washington Avenue. The darkness enveloped the city entirely, but amidst it, it was possible to discern the lively chords of merengue resonating from afar. The illumination source emanated from a neighbouring grocery store, which relied on a compact generator to power its lights. The volume of the music was so pronounced that it created the illusion of a live performance, overpowering even the sound of the crashing waves from the sea. As the music persisted, a new song started playing: a renowned bachata by Juan Luis Guerra and his 4.40, featuring the globally recognised lyrics: "I hope it will rain coffee." The noise maintained its previous volume, serving as a welcome diversion from the stifling heat that surrounded the island. No one could resist swaying their hips to the beat of the music, almost as if it were a necessary response to the scorching heat. A scream can be heard in the distance, —coño— Pancho... The light is coming, as if the dear friend were not seeing the miracle that is life…

Experiencing the phenomenon of —alumbrones— (the light coming), it may be Kafkaesque, but it is not. It is the production of electrical energy in the country. It was critical, if not non-existent, because of its precariousness. It’s because it evoked a profound sense of exhilaration and joy in individuals. When the electric light peeked out miserably. While the light was fleeting, it undoubtedly provided an unforgettable balsam bath. Thus, the scarcity of much-needed electricity in the Dominican Republic was evident. In other words, that was the dark reality of La Hispaniola. With good intentions and hard work, everything can change.

"A single image can communicate a multitude of messages. In this specific inst

AES Dominicana has made a significant contribution to improving the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system by using a variety of fuels and renewable energy sources.

Since its inception in the region, AES has always been committed to making a significant contribution to the energy sector by prioritising the implementation of effective and sustainable changes that benefit all stakeholders.

In 2000, AES demonstrated its commitment to the sustainable growth of the Dominican Republic by establishing AES Andrés. The project included a 319 MW combined-cycle power plant, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal and a gas pipe connecting to the DPP plant.

In the same year, AES also acquired the assets of GENER and a 25% stake in the ITABO S.A. power plant. In the following years, AES maintained its investment in the country by undertaking projects such as the conversion of gas turbines to natural gas and the acquisition of additional shares in ITABO S.A. These initiatives by AES have significantly improved the country's strategic energy position and reduced its dependence on oil derivatives for electricity generation.

In the 2010s, AES initiated the construction of AES Andrés 2000, a combined-cycle power plant that represents a significant advancement in the country's energy infrastructure. The company also launched the innovative Closing the Loop project at DPP. This initiative involved the installation of a steam turbine to improve operational effektivtency and support environmental and social progress.

In 2017, AES successfully completed the Closing the Loop initiative at DPP, resulting in a significant increase in capacity and efficiency at the plant. This progress contributed significantly to the country's environmental and social development goals. AES Dominicana is proud of its remarkable journey and looks forward to continuing its efforts to promote sustainable energy solutions for a brighter future.

Indeed, the AES Dominicana family is experiencing…

Since 2014, AES has implemented a long-term strategy to incorporate local partners to support the expansion and strengthening of the business and accompany the growth of the energy industry with a sustainability vision, both in the Dominican Republic and Panama.

"We derive immense value from partnering with strong local players who provide valuable support as we transition our businesses in both markets," said Juan Ignacio Rubiolo, executive vice president and president of AES's Energy Infrastructure Strategic Business Unit.

The first step began on September 3, 2014, when AES Dominicana forged a strategic partnership with local entities Estrella and Linda in New York. Estrella and Linda acquired a minority stake in the energy company.

Integrating Estrella and Linda into the AES Dominicana family is a strategic move and a powerful symbol of our shared vision and commitment. This alliance is not just about improving the electricity sector in the Dominican Republic but about ushering in a new era of national development across various productive industries.

The earnest dedication of the signatories to contribute to the resolution offers a promising perspective for the future of the energy sector in the Dominican Republic.

The collaboration between Estrella and Linda is a pivotal element of AES's comprehensive long-term growth strategy in the Dominican Republic. This strategy, presented to the Dominican Republic authorities in December 2012, is a testament to our steadfast commitment to the country's energy sector. It is a commitment to a secure and prosperous future for the Dominican Republic, underscoring our unwavering presence.

The signing ceremony was graced by key figures in the energy sector, including Andrés Gluski, the Global President and CEO of AES Corporation; Edwin De Los Santos, the President of AES Dominicana; Manuel Estrella, the President of Estrella; and Felix García, the President of Grupo Linda, who served as delegates for the new collaborators, symbolizing the unity and shared vision of all parties involved.

The AES Dominicana group's integration of ENANDON and API Popular marks not an end, but the commencement of a new and promising chapter in its continuing saga of success.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

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Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1866872489424384093

AES Panamá Complete Transformation…

Panama is home to one of the world's most significant maritime routes, with the Panama Canal serving as crucial point that necessitates a supply of electricity for its operation However, the unfortunate issue with Panama's electricity system is that it relies almost entirely on hydroelectric power. Water this valuable resource, can unfortunately be more expensive fuel, presenting not a question of cost but also of scarcity, further worsened by the severe drought the region. This situation poses serious challenges for the country as the reliability of the supply is vital to maintaining the operation of the canal and, consequently, the Panamanian economy.

On the other hand, over 7,000 miles away, vessels transporting containers through Egypt'suez Canal are either awaiting naval escorts or completely avoiding the passage, opting instead for a significantly longer voyage around South Africa. Ship operators are concerned that their crews may be endangered during journeys the Red Sea due to or drone attacks from a Yemen-based rebel group.

The issues affecting the Suez Canal are geopolitical, while those impacting Panama are climate-related; however, both situations are disrupting global trade. Cargo through Suez and Panama canals have decreased by more than a third. So, hundreds of vessels have rerouted to longer paths, leading to delivery delays, increased transportation costs, and economic damage to local communities.

It is easy to conclude: Two Canals, Two Major Problems — Global Shipping Mess.

The drought in Panama has in over 50 ships waiting to cross the Panama Canal on recent day, including tank transporting propane and cargo ships with food This prolonged drought has compelled the canal's operator to reduce number of, leading to increased waiting. Consequently, the tolls that ships are required pay have risen to approximately eight times their normal rates.

AES has been operational in Panama since 1999, following its successful acquisition of international tenders for the concessions of the Bayano La Estrella and Los V hydroelectric power plants. In 2018, leveraging its extensive experience in natural gas from the Dominican Republic, AES initiated the construction of the Colón power plant. This facility is significant as it represents the first Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)-fired power plant in the region, with a generation capacity of 381 MW. The plant began operations in 2019, thereby establishing the inaugural hub for LNG in Panama and Central America, which features a 180,000 m³ storage tank and a reception terminal for maritime vessels.

Panama has established a 20-year fuel supply contract at a stable and competitive market price through the Generadora Gatun project, a natural gas-fired power generation initiative that commenced construction in March of this year. This contract is projected to yield a 20% reduction in costs compared to current market prices, utilizing natural gas sourced from the United States, the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas, alongside Qatar, thereby facilitating the provision of the most favorable pricing.

When considering the financial benefits of this new investment in conjunction with the savings generated by AES Colón, a 381 MW natural gas facility inaugurated in 2018, the total economic advantage for the country exceeds US$150 million annually when compared to electricity generation reliant on fuel oil and liquefied natural gas at prevailing market rates, amounting to approximately US$3 billion over a 20-year period. Furthermore, both investments are anticipated to significantly mitigate CO2 emissions, collectively reducing them by over 2.2 billion tonnes per year, as natural gas is recognized as a considerably cleaner energy source.

Today…

Houthi Attacks Turn Back the Clock for Shipping as Costs Pile Up

“The transport route around the southern tip of Africa was once little used — but freighters are now forced to take it and are charging higher rates.

The New York Times by Peteravis and Liz Alderman Peter Eavis reported from New York, while Liz Alderman reported from Piraeus, Greece.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/business/houthi-red-sea-attacks-shipping-lanes-africa.html

Germán & Co 12/9/24 Germán & Co 12/9/24

The No Man's Land in the Battle for Global Gas Resources…

"Whoever controls Syria holds significant power across the Middle East. This country is more than just a spot on the map; it serves as a crucial gateway to Asia, often referred to as "the key to the House of Russia," a term famously coined by Empress Catherine the Great. But the influence of Syria extends further—it also connects to China via the historic Silk Road, which opens the door for potential global dominance. Especially now, as we enter what many are calling the Age of Gas, the stakes have never been higher."

“In the shadows of Al-sassad fall, the battle for global gas resources is a dynamic and intricate saga. As the tides of economics and politics ebb and flow, alliances are forged and dissolved, reflecting the ever-shifting landscape of current events…

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

"Whoever controls Syria holds significant power across the Middle East. This country is more than just a spot on the map; it serves as a crucial gateway to Asia, often referred to as "the key to the House of Russia," a term famously coined by Empress Catherine the Great. But the influence of Syria extends further—it also connects to China via the historic Silk Road, which opens the door for potential global dominance. Especially now, as we enter what many are calling the Age of Gas, the stakes have never been higher."

“In the shadows of Al-sassad fall, the battle for global gas resources is a dynamic and intricate saga. As the tides of economics and politics ebb and flow, alliances are forged and dissolved, reflecting the ever-shifting landscape of current events…

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“Assad’s fall in Syria is a ‘fundamental act of justice,’ but also ‘a moment of risk,’ Biden says

The Mediterranean Sea basin is acknowledged as one of the world's largest natural gas reservoirs, with a considerable amount of these reserves located within Syrian territory. Syria plays a pivotal role in transporting gas to Europe. Traditionally, the Syrian government was led by Bashar al-Assad, the president who has recently been deposed, haft capitalized on its strategic position to negotiate advantageous terms for its gas reserves. Nevertheless, Syria has been progressively viewed as an unreliable partner by countries in need of energy resources, which are crucial for their faltering economies and are subject to continuous competition with Russia and China.

Over the past ten years, the Levantine Mediterranean Basin, especially Syria, has become increasingly significant in the oil and gas transport industry. Notably, natural gas now makes up about 25% of the world's energy consumption, and it is projected to have become the main substitute for oil since 2020. In light of this, Europe's heavy reliance on Russian natural gas has highlighted the urgent need for Western countries to find alternative sources and transportation pathways for their gas supplies.

In light of recent developments, the contest for dominance in the region has intensified significantly over the past five years. To elucidate this situation, it is pertinent to highlight certain key factors related to the escalating rivalry among multinational corporations and political entities concerning the gas sector. This discussion will specifically address the strategic significance of Syria as a conduit for gas transportation.

The Islamic Gas Pipeline…

In 2011, Syria entered into an agreement with Iran and Iraq to construct the 'Islamic Gas Pipeline,' also referred to as the 'Friendship Pipeline.' The proposed infrastructure is designed to originate from the South Pars gas field in Iran, traversing through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon before reaching the Mediterranean Sea. In the subsequent phase of the initiative, the pipeline is intended to extend beneath the Mediterranean to Greece, facilitating distribution to Europe. This new pipeline is projected to have a capacity of 110 million cubic meters of gas per day, positioning it as the largest pipeline in the Middle East, while also linking the Iraqi oil fields of Akkas and Kirkuk. Construction was anticipated to start between 2013 and 2014; however, the outbreak of civil war in Syria has resulted in the project's indefinite postponement due to the ongoing conflict and the recent fall of Al-Assad.

The South Pars gas field, recognized as the largest globally, spans approximately 9,700 square kilometers and is jointly owned by Iran and Qatar in the Gulf region. Based on the project data and information from Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC), a branch of the National Iranian Oil Company, the field possesses 14 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves. This positions it as twelve times the size of Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field, which British Petroleum (heading the Shah Deniz consortium) estimates contains 1.2 trillion cubic meters of gas. But a key fact about this potential pipeline is that its route would bypass none other than Turkey, Washington's staunch ally.

Russia is deeply involved in Syrian-Iranian projects, and its influence there is expected to complement its presence in the European gas market, rather than compete with it. Russia's gas fields are of crucial importance to Western Europe and carry significant political weight. The proposed Syrian-Iranian gas pipeline would bolster Russia's position in its energy rivalry with the West. Furthermore, should the pipeline be constructed, it is anticipated to receive support from the Russian naval base at Tartus, which is Moscow's last remaining naval base from the Cold War era in the region, alongside protection from allied states in the area.

The financing required for the construction of the Islamic gas pipeline is expected to surpass ten billion dollars. Considering the financial constraints of Middle Eastern economies, it is likely that Russia or China will provide the necessary funding for the project.

The Nabucco Project

In the mid-1990s, global fuel strategists began to acknowledge the increasing importance of natural gas as a viable alternative to oil, which was perceived as potentially limited in availability. This acknowledgment prompted the White House, with the backing of the European Union, to launch the Nabucco project, positioning it as a competitor to existing Russian initiatives. The Nabucco pipeline was designed to transport natural gas to Europe, originating in Central Asia near the Black Sea, specifically in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The pipeline was intended to traverse Turkey, where existing storage infrastructure was available, and continue through Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, ultimately reaching Austria. From Austria, the pipeline was planned to extend to the Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia, and Italy.

The initial consortium of capital associated with the Nabucco pipeline comprised several companies, including the German firm RWE, the Hungarian company MOL, the Turkish entity Botas, the Bulgarian Energy Company Holding, and the Romanian firm Transgaz. However, several years subsequent to its initial design, the pipeline has yet to progress beyond the planning stage. In 2012, the Hungarian company MOL withdrew from the Nabucco consortium. Recently, another significant partner and shareholder, the German consortium RWE, also exited the group.

Initially, the objective of this project was to facilitate the transportation of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Europe. However, Turkmenistan has commenced the construction of two gas pipelines directed towards Iran and China, and in 2013, it initiated a third pipeline to China. Consequently, Turkmenistan no longer possesses surplus gas resources available for the European Union. Furthermore, assessments conducted by various experts indicate that Azerbaijan lacks the necessary gas volumes to adequately supply the Nabucco gas pipeline. In light of these circumstances, the Azerbaijani government has opted to prioritize the ongoing Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline project, which is designed to transport gas to Italy via Turkey, Albania, and Greece, with operations expected to commence in 2017-2018.

The Nabucco pipeline project was intended to incorporate Iranian natural gas, with the United States aiming to integrate its reserves by linking them to the Erzurum storage facility in Turkey. Additionally, the project included gas supplies from the eastern Mediterranean region, specifically from Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. Nabucco was designed to transport natural gas over a distance of 3,900 kilometers through Turkish territory, with the objective of delivering 31 billion cubic meters of gas annually to European markets from the Middle East and the Caspian basin. The urgency exhibited by the NATO-US-France coalition to eliminate obstacles to their gas supply interests in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, stems from the necessity to ensure stability and garner local support for the infrastructure and investments essential to the gas industry.

South Stream y North Stream

Russian energy projects had been more fortunate until the “blast” on September 26, 2022. On the one hand, North Stream, which directly connects Russia with Germany through the Baltic Sea, recently began its works. The first branch line began construction in April 2010, was completed in June 2011 and inaugurated on November 8, 2011 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Construction of the second branch commenced in May 2011, and it started operations in 2012, continuing through to September 2022.

Nord Stream's shareholders are "Gazprom" with a 51% stake, the German company Wintershall and EON Ruhgas, as well as the Dutch and French Gasunie GDF SUEZ.

Conversely, the South Stream, Russia's second gas project, originates in Russian gas fields and traverses the Black Sea. It branches through Greece and southern Italy, and another branch passes through Hungary and Austria, culminating in Bulgaria.

South Stream AG, a Gazprom and Eni (Italy) joint venture, constructs and operates the pipeline. Work is progressing; notably, in June of this year, Gazprom and the Austrian energy consortium OMV established South Stream Austria GmbH to build the Austrian segment of the pipeline. This occurred despite Bulgaria, another project member state, suspending South Stream construction early in June at the European Commission's behest, which alleged European regulatory violations. The inaugural supply of Russian gas to Austria via this pipeline is anticipated for 2016.

Journalist and professor Imad Fawzi Shueibi posits that the primary threat to Nabucco may be Russia's strategy to undermine it by securing more favorable contracts for Gazprom with North Stream and South Stream. This could negate the efforts of the United States and Europe, reduce their influence, and unsettle their energy strategies in Iran and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, Gazprom might emerge as a key investor or operator in new gas fields in Syria and Lebanon.

In the context of Turkey, the suspension of the Nabucco project, which involved the country, has intensified its aspirations to engage in the ongoing competition for gas resources. Consequently, Turkey has aligned itself with the interests of Western imperialist nations that aim to obstruct the implementation of multinational projects spearheaded by Russia, specifically the South and North Stream initiatives, without significant involvement. This alignment is primarily motivated by the Turkish government's, under President Erdogan, dependence on the strategic objectives of Washington and NATO, as there is an urgent necessity for Nabucco to facilitate the storage, marketing, and transportation of up to 40 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

Qatar-Turkey-Syria gas pipeline

In 2009, the former Emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani, who abdicated in 2013 in favor of his son, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, engaged in discussions with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan to establish a new pipeline intended to transport Qatari natural gas to Turkey through Syria. Qatar possesses the third-largest natural gas reserves globally and is recognized as the leading producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, complications arose due to President Bashar al-Assad's initial refusal to endorse the project, which was later followed by Syria's agreement to participate in the construction of the Islamic Gas Pipeline. This new corridor was proposed as an alternative for European nations seeking to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, alongside one of the branches of the also suspended Nabucco pipeline project.

Finally, "Bill Gates: The Optimist’s Dilemma" may be a significant read. The philanthropist, who has been combating global diseases for 25 years, believes the world is at a perilous tipping point. This book offers insights for a deeper comprehension of our world, as discussed in the article from The New Statesman in this edition. It is essential to acknowledge that the current tumultuous state of the world can be traced back to the initial detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on November 17, 2019, in Wuhan, China. This virus, which is a relatively simple entity composed of proteins and nucleic acids, is capable of replication solely within specific living cells by commandeering their metabolic mechanisms.

Lastly, the note referenced in this post is derived from the Spanish article titled "Syria and the Gas," authored by Alejandra Loucau over five years ago, which remains highly relevant in contemporary discussions.

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Bill Gates: the Optimist’s Dilemma

The philanthropist has been fighting global disease for 25 years. He believes the world is at a dangerous tipping point.

The New Statement by Jason Cowley

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2024/11/bill-gates-the-optimists-dilemma

(WP) Renewables were supposed to take over the grid. Instead they’re falling short.

“Today's electricity landspe is not a one-size-fits-all market…

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Descending progressively into greater depths water ad infinitum in the reality of this mad world…

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

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You can't possibly deny me...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

You can't possibly deny me...

Not Angela, not...

Renewables were supposed to take over the grid. Instead they’re falling short.

Despite generous tax credits, red tape has slowed wind and solar.

“Without progress, probably some places tap out at half that,” he said.

“It actually is really hard to build a lot of this stuff fast,” said Trevor Houser, partner in climate and energy at Rhodium Group.

“The grid that we have was never designed to handle this kind of load,” said Sandhya Ganapathy, CEO of EDP Renewables North America.

“A project takes anywhere between six to eight years,” Ganapathy said. “All of the AI needs are coming — are they going to wait six to eight years until we have more power in the system? We need to streamline this.”

“If you have a weak transmission system, we will always be hesitant to build a project,” said Ganapathy. “Why are we taking a big risk of a massive investment if I will not be able to sell the electrons?”

“If you had told me 20 years ago when I started working on climate, that we would be having discussions about not the direction of change, but the pace — I would be dancing in the streets,” said Houser. “The challenge is just, can we build it fast enough?”

What Happened with the Energy Sector: Market Talk Roundup.

A New American Empire…

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Going deeper and deeper and deepest…

Have you paid the electricity bill? What is that? Electricity bill?

What is the flash back?

-- Chicken run applies to an offensive escalation in which neither side has anything to lose (The Chicken "Josefina Mesa ... - Blogger").

A stern reprimand from Trump to Putin…

This position is deemed unacceptable.

Norwegian war profits from natural gas during this period are estimated at USD 33 billion.

Mexico-USA Scuffle.

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com

You can't possibly deny me...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

You can't possibly deny me...

Not Angela, not...

What Happened with the Energy Sector: Market Talk Roundup.

A Complex Checkerboard For The Power Industry…

Trump Aims to Boost Energy Production, but Excludes Wind Solar…

Trump Wants to Unleash Energy, as Long as It’s Not Wind or Solar…

Legal experts said the president was testing the boundaries of executive power with aggressive orders designed to stop the country from transitioning to renewable energy.

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Going deeper and deeper…

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com

You can't possibly deny me...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

You can't possibly deny me...

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“Congress passed landmark infrastructure and climate investments, and now President Trump is attempting to illegally withhold that money from American businesses, communities, and workers,” said Representative Frank Pallone, Democrat of New Jersey.

“There’s an increased sense of confidence that our costs of doing business aren’t going to rise,” said Steve Pruett, chief executive of Elevation Resources LLC, an oil and gas producer in West Texas.

“This is a new day for American energy, and we applaud President Trump for moving swiftly to chart a new path where U.S. oil and natural gas are embraced, not restricted,” said Mike Sommers, the president of the American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group.

“The transition is already underway,” said Steven A. Cohen, director of Columbia University’s master’s degree program in Sustainability Management. “We are seeing more than the beginnings, and lots and lots of movement in the direction of renewable energy around the world.”

“These emergency provisions are for disasters like what is happening in the Palisades,” Mr. Parenteau said, referring to the fires raging through Los Angeles. “They’re not for ‘because I want to drill, baby, drill’,” he said.

“Litigation is guaranteed,” said Jody Freeman, the director of the Harvard Law School Environmental and Energy Law Program and a former Obama White House official. But, she added, the Trump administration “may say ‘we’re prepared to roll the dice.’”

“How could you call the reliance on the work of a Nobel Prize winner a poor basis in empirical science?” Mr. Revesz said.

“Perhaps the biggest race for the future is who will command clean energy,” Ms. Dillen said. “Even if you want to see more drilling, if you’re in the majority of Americans, you also want to see clean energy move forward.”

Oil Giants Dip Their Toes into the Electric Deep Waters…

Indications of vertical integration are emerging in the energy sector.

———————————-

Indicators of vertical integration are expected to emerge…

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Going deeper…

Talks with President of China Xi Jinping…

Zelenskiy Says Europe Must Secure Energy Independence…

Davos 2025: Special Address by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission

Data centres represent a critical aspect of this transformation…

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

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You can't possibly deny me...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

You can't possibly deny me...

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Oil Majors Flirt With Electricity

As power generators such as Vistra soar, oil-and-gas giants are dipping their toes into a business where they have some natural advantages…

Glory, glory, hallelujah!

A symphony of history unfolds in a heartbeat…

“Trump is a magnetic force that does not escape Davos,” said Marc Benioff, the chief executive of Salesforce and a *fixture of the annual gathering. “Davos will only be talking about one thing, which is Donald Trump as president of the United States and what it means for the world.”***