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“What does 'America First' mean in this new chapter? The United States has always strived to maintain its position as the unrivaled leader on the global stage. However, as Donald Trump embarks on his second term, his approach to reinforcing American dominance is likely to take on a particularly self-serving twist…
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Good news for arms manufacturers, good news for fossil fuel companies…
What ‘America First’ means second time around…
The US has long worked to ensure it has no global rivals. But as Donald Trump’s second term begins, his way of shoring up American preeminence is likely to assume an especially self-interested form…
Le Monde Diplomatique by *Michael T Klare
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Natural Gas Terminal AES ANDRES, located in the Dominican Republic. Image provided by AES Dominicana.
Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES, articulated this perspective during the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2023, stating, "I am confident we will need natural gas for the next 20 years." He further emphasized, "We can start blending it with green hydrogen today."
Imagen by Germán & Co
Good news for arms manufacturers, good news for fossil fuel companies…
What ‘America First’ means second time around…
The US has long worked to ensure it has no global rivals. But as Donald Trump’s second term begins, his way of shoring up American preeminence is likely to assume an especially self-interested form…
Le Monde Diplomatique by *Michael T KlareThe global order president-elect Donald Trump will oversee from 20 January will be the same as Joe Biden’s in the previous days and weeks. But Trump comes to the Oval Office with a very different outlook on foreign affairs from his predecessor, and his ‘America First’ approach will in time fundamentally alter Washington’s relations with the outside world.
Unlike Biden and his team, who viewed the world as a giant chess board with friendly and hostile blocs contending for geopolitical advantage over contested areas, Trump perceives it more as giant Monopoly board, with multiple rivals competing over valuable real estate, markets and resources. Under Biden, ideology came first: democracy, compliance with the rule of law and adherence to ‘Western values’ were thought to constitute the glue of NATO and other US-led alliances. Trump says the unbridled pursuit of economic and strategic advantage should govern US foreign policy.
Summing up the Trumpian worldview, his choice for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio, declared in November, ‘We are now in an era in global affairs where responsible American foreign policy must be based not on idealistic fantasies but on pragmatic decisions that prioritize the core national interest of the United States above all else’.
Exactly what Rubio means by ‘core national interest’ is hard to say: he, Trump and others in their circle have described it in various, sometimes contradictory, ways. But at its core are the perpetuation of US global preeminence, containment of China, dilution of alliances and an emphasis on resource extraction. These four objectives should together govern every aspect of Trump’s foreign policy.
Ensuring US global preeminence has of course been the overriding goal of US foreign and military policy since the end of the cold war. The defence department affirmed in a 1992 document (later leaked to the New York Times) that ‘our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival. This…requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power’. US officials swiftly repudiated this statement, attributed to Paul Wolfowitz, then defence undersecretary, when it was made public. It has not been repeated since. Nevertheless, it encapsulates the thinking of many of those around Trump: Washington should do whatever is necessary to preserve America’s status as the dominant world power.
Revitalising US alliances…
When Wolfowitz made the statement, the US was in a much stronger position than it is today. China had not yet begun its meteoric rise to economic stardom, Russia had not rebuilt its military, and other potential rivals such as India offered no threat. But over time, America’s lead has substantially narrowed. Biden sought to overcome this by revitalising US ties with like-minded states in Europe and Asia, asserting that these alliances enhanced America’s net power.
For Trumpists, that approach signalled weakness, not strength. To ‘Make America Great Again’, the US must ensure its superiority independent of any reliance on foreign friends and allies. These efforts will be implemented, moreover, by converts to Trump’s 2.0 ‘America First’ outlook, such as Rubio and vice-president-designate JD Vance, and not the neoconservatives of the first Trump administration.
Trumpists believe maintaining US global preeminence means restoring its economic prowess – imposing stiff tariffs on all imports. In their view, globalisation and free trade have enervated the US economy by shifting critical industrial processes abroad. To restore the nation’s economic vitality, it is essential to dampen imports through high tariffs, even on goods arriving from close allies, including NATO members. Tariffs are ‘the greatest thing ever invented’, Trump declared during the campaign.
Containing China…
When Wolfowitz wrote in 1992 of the need to prevent any potential rival from ever acquiring the capacity to ‘generate global power’, no country possessed such a capacity. Today, however, China is moving ever closer to doing so. Preventing China from reaching parity with the US has, therefore, been the overarching goal since Trump’s first term.
To ensure its continued preeminence, Washington must increase its investments in advanced technologies, deny China access to American technological innovations and increase its military presence in the Western Pacific. Asian allies are invited to join the US in containing China, but not to count on its automatic support. And they must ‘contribute more to their own defense’.
This applies even to Taiwan, whose defence against possible Chinese invasion has been viewed as a cornerstone of US policy by Congress China hawks, including both Democrats like former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (whose visit to the island in August 2022 provoked a massive Chinese air, naval and missile response) and Republicans like Rubio and Michael Waltz, Trump’s choice as national security advisor. As Trump has made clear, however, Taiwan should not expect unqualified support from Washington. ‘I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,’ Trump said in a July 2024 interview with Bloomberg Businessweek.
The dilution of alliances also applies to Ukraine and NATO. As Trump and Vance have repeated, the Ukrainians will not receive further US military aid unless they agree to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia – which would almost certainly require Kyiv to renounce a fifth or more of national territory and abandon its plans to join NATO. Likewise, the Trump team has repeatedly told NATO’s European members they must contribute more to their own defence or face a sharp reduction in US support. An increase in defence spending – Trump has demanded up to 3% of GDP – could prove a boon to US arms manufacturers, which in 2023 posted record exports of $238bn.
We are now in an era where responsible American foreign policy must be based not on idealistic fantasies but on pragmatic decisions that prioritize the core national interest of the US above all elseMarco Rubio…
The people around Trump insist that defending Europe is secondary to curbing China. ‘The United States does not have enough military capabilities to go around,’ says Elbridge Colby, an assistant defence secretary in the first Trump administration and possible advisor in the second. The US cannot devote so many resources to countering Russia in Europe, he argued, when ‘the Chinese are a more dangerous and significant threat’ (6).
Trump is also obsessed with production and procurement of vital resources, determined to prolong the age of fossil fuels while ensuring the US obtains all it needs to stoke its economic and technological advancement.
He has made no secret of his intention to abandon many of the Biden administration’s renewable energy initiatives, reprioritising domestic oil and natural gas extraction. Although the US is now largely self-sufficient, Trump has an affinity with other major oil- and gas-producers’ rulers, especially Saudi Arabia and the Gulf oil kingdoms. He established close ties with the Saudi crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman during his first term, when family members, notably his son-in-law Jared Kushner, secured lucrative business deals.
Prolonging the primacy of fossil fuels…
These ties, driven largely by financial considerations and a shared antipathy to Iran, also reflect a common determination to prolong the primacy of fossil fuels. The Saudis have consistently resisted efforts to curb their consumption at international climate change meetings (most recently at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan), while Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the treaty on his first day in office.
Would Trump also seek accommodations with other fossil fuel producers, including Iran, Venezuela and Russia? Despite his hostility to the first two’s leaders and ambivalence about Vladimir Putin, he has not ruled out reconciliation with all three. A ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, as proposed by Trump, would enable him to lift many of the sanctions imposed on the Russian oil and gas industry in 2022, allowing for renewed cooperation between US and Russian energy firms.
Likewise, a new agreement with Iran on nuclear weapons would permit the rehabilitation of Iranian oil and gas fields, further contributing to global fossil fuel dominance. And one of Trump’s billionaire donors, Harry Sargeant III, has advocated lifting sanctions on the Maduro regime in Venezuela, opening up fresh opportunities for US investment in its oil industry. Such moves run counter to Trump’s repeated pledge to support Israel in its contest with Iran and his own inclination to punish Iran and Venezuela, and so may never come to pass. They do, however, reflect his penchant for deal-making.
Aims to boost mineral production…
Trump’s obsession with resources extends to critical minerals like cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements essential to high-tech industries, especially computers, electric car batteries and aerospace equipment – industries closely associated with Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and other top Trump advisors. Many of these are mined or refined in China, or sourced from Chinese-owned mines in Africa and Latin America.
A major Trump objective is to boost mineral production in the US and reduce reliance on China. However, US reserves are not, generally speaking, as pure or extensive of those found elsewhere, and bringing new mines online will prove costly and difficult (especially given the environmental risks). Hence, Trump and his associates are likely to seek increased US ties with countries with large reserves of the desired minerals, such as Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Will Trump’s decisions increase or decrease the risk of US involvement in armed conflict? The basic thrust of his foreign policy outlook would seem to suggest a reduced appetite for US involvement in overseas conflicts. Although Trump seeks to ensure continued US global preeminence, his preferred instruments are economic and technological, not military. While he may choose to brandish American military power as a means of intimidating potential adversaries, he has eschewed US involvement in future ‘forever wars’ as in Iraq and Afghanistan. And his apparent wish to enhance ties with other oil-producing countries could reduce the risk of conflict with Iran and Venezuela.
At the same time, his determination to curb China’s growth and preserve US domination of the Western Pacific could in a crisis lead to miscalculation, even war. Similarly, efforts to gain access to overseas sources of critical minerals could bring confrontation with local forces or, conceivably, China or Russia.
We cannot foresee which of these competing impulses will prevail once Donald Trump assumes office. But he is unlikely to be motivated by any of the ‘idealistic fantasies’ – respect for international law, advancement of democracy, protection of human rights – that so inspired the speeches of his predecessors, both Democrats and Republicans, with all their omissions which Palestinians, among others, have endured, especially in the last year.
*Michael T Klare is professor emeritus at Hampshire College, Amherst (Massachusetts) and the author, most recently of All Hell Breaking Loose: the Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change, Metropolitan, New York, 2019.