(NYT) ”The Panama Canal Has a Big Problem, but It’s Not China or Trump…
“January 2025”, A New Year Marked By Uncertainty And Challenges...
In the United States, the assumption of the presidency of President Donald Trump to a new mandate. Meanwhile, the European Union faces, Ukraine halts the flow of natural gas from to the continent. Germany, in his New Year's address, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz asserted that the outcome of the German elections will not be determined by the proprietors of social media platforms. Venezuela, in the midst of endless rumours, is waiting for its 'D' day to change its destiny... What will happen on 10 January remains to be seen... maybe. Furthermore, Denmark and Panama, these two small countries, are looking forward to the next months of foreign policy, no doubt with caution and above all in the hope that the "carrot and stick" law will not be imposed.
Greetings to all, and best wishes for a prosperous and healthy year in 2025…
The year 2024 has been characterized by many as a “horribilis annus”, culminating in a series of fatal plane crashes across various regions. As we transition into 2025, it is reasonable to designate this new year as one marked by “incertus”.
The blog's analysis is largely accurate, the exception President Donald Trump's unforeseen challenge to Panama regarding canal fees. We have analyzed the geopolitical issues of both canals. The Panama accounts for 5% of the world trade, the Suez Canal accounts for %.
The Panamanian authorities' reassurances to their citizens regarding the sovereignty of the waterway are certainly valid. However, it is clear that they are also mindful of December 20, 1989, when United States military forces swiftly took control of the country in a few hours with minimal resistance, despite the presence of the "Battalions of Dignity" and a significant Cuban presence.
The situation concerning Greenland is less unexpected, as it represents a recurring theme in the foreign policy dynamics between the two nations.
Regarding energy policy, the article titled: "Musk believes in global warming. Trump doesn't. Will That Change?" published by the New York Times on November 8, 2024, may provide valuable insights. “Elon Musk has consistently acknowledged climate change as a significant issue, although he has occasionally fluctuated in his assessment of its urgency. He has been a longstanding advocate for the transition to low-emission technologies, including solar energy, battery storage, and electric vehicles. In a biography released last year by Walter Isaacson, it was noted that Mr. Musk's interest in solar power and electric vehicles originated during his college years, driven by his concerns about the threats posed by global warming and the potential depletion of fossil fuel resources”.
In this uncertain year, we can only wish them all the best for 2025.
You can't possibly deny me...
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
In December 2023, Energy Central recognized outstanding contributors within the Energy & Sustainability Network during the 'Top Voices' event. The recipients of this honor were highlighted in six articles, showcasing the acknowledgment from the community. The platform facilitates professionals in disseminating their work, engaging with peers, and collaborating with industry influencers. Congratulations are extended to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for their exemplary demonstration of expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
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Natural Gas Terminal AES ANDRES, located in the Dominican Republic. Image provided by AES Dominicana.
Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES, articulated this perspective during the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2023, stating, "I am confident we will need natural gas for the next 20 years." He further emphasized, "We can start blending it with green hydrogen today."
Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock
The Panama Canal Has a Big Problem, but It’s Not China or Trump…
New York Times, January 1, 2025, Dennis M. HoganDr. Hogan teaches in the History and Literature program at Harvard University. His research focuses on Central America and the United States in the 19th and 20th centuries.In 2023, on a research trip to Panama, I booked a day tour of the Panama Canal. I expected to hear the usual story about the canal’s epic construction, importance in world trade and successful expansion to allow for larger modern ships. What I did not expect was the overwhelming sense of concern, even panic, among people who depend on the canal for their livelihoods.
It was July, the middle of Panama’s rainy season. But the rains had been sparse, and water levels in the canal had sunk to troubling lows. Without freshwater from rain, our guide explained, the locks on the canal could not operate.
I remembered that visit after President-elect Donald Trump said recently that the Chinese were threatening America’s interests at the canal, and he engaged in some saber rattling by suggesting that the United States could take back control of the passage, which was returned to Panama exactly 25 years ago Tuesday. The handover treaties were a signature achievement of President Jimmy Carter, who died on Sunday; Mr. Trump’s comments were in keeping with longstanding criticism that the move was a strategic mistake.
But Mr. Trump misunderstands the true threat to U.S. commerce through Panama. If the goal is securing affordable access to the transit point over the long term, it is climate change, not Chinese influence, that U.S. policymakers should worry about.
Here’s why. Sending a single ship through the canal’s locks can use around 50 million gallons of water, mainly freshwater collected from Lake Gatún. Though the canal is, for the moment, operating at full capacity, a drier climate and greater demand for drinking water have in recent years reduced the volume of available water. That has forced the state-run Panama Canal Authority at times to limit the number of daily passages through the canal, at one point by as much as 40 percent.
A changing climate, a changing world..
Climate change around the world: In “Postcards From a World on Fire,” 193 stories from individual countries show how climate change is reshaping reality everywhere, from dying coral reefs in Fiji to disappearing oases in Morocco and far, far beyond.
The role of our leaders: Writing at the end of 2020, Al Gore, the 45th vice president of the United States, found reasons for optimism in the Biden presidency, a feeling perhaps borne out by the passing of major climate legislation. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been criticisms. For example, Charles Harvey and Kurt House argue that subsidies for climate capture technology will ultimately be a waste.
The worst climate risks, mapped: In this feature, select a country, and we'll break down the climate hazards it faces. In the case of America, our maps, developed with experts, show where extreme heat is causing the most deaths.
What people can do: Justin Gillis and Hal Harvey describe the types of local activism that might be needed, while Saul Griffith points to how Australia shows the way on rooftop solar. Meanwhile, small changes at the office might be one good way to cut significant emissions, writes Carlos Gamarra.
With less rain, the reservoirs fill up more slowly, which means less water available to operate the locks, which means fewer ships can pass. Hence, the 2023-24 drought, among the worst on record, slowed transits and drove up transit prices, causing long delays, more expensive consumer goods and greater instability in shipping routes. These were probably the increases Mr. Trump referred to as a “rip-off.”
The limited number of passages has led to auctions for passage rights that further inflated the growing cost of shipping goods through the canal (the canal authority had increased tolls just before the 2023 drought began). In the short term, reduced access causes goods to take longer to reach their destinations, and they cost more when they do arrive. Over the medium term, companies have begun to seek alternate routes and different methods of moving goods. Some projects, like a railway corridor across southern Mexico, have emerged to directly compete with the Panama Canal. Over the long term, as trade volume and ship sizes increase while the amount of available water decreases, the canal could well lose market share, declining in both usefulness and strategic importance.
The 2023-24 drought was due in part to a strong El Niño effect, as rising seawater surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean altered weather patterns worldwide. Scientists generally agree that climate change is making El Niño events more frequent and more severe. Higher temperatures have increased the evaporation of water off the reservoir, too, further reducing the water supply.
Mr. Trump’s insinuations about Chinese influence and his demands for lower transit fees, or the canal’s return to U.S. control, have of course not won him admiration in Panama, least of all among civic leaders more concerned with solving the canal’s challenges.
In recent days, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama has repeatedly rejected accusations of Chinese influence. He declared at a news conference last week that “the Panama Canal is Panamanian and belongs to Panamanians” and that Panamanian control of the waterway had cost the country “blood, sweat and tears.” There is no legal mechanism by which Mr. Trump might demand its return.
Panamanians are rightly proud of their administration of the canal over the past 25 years; in suggesting that the United States retains any claim to it, Mr. Trump risks alienating a country that remains friendly to the United States despite a long history of U.S. arrogance toward the Panamanian people.
Panama has been a global crossroads since the 19th century. A sea route across the isthmus was first imagined by the Spanish in the 16th century; the overland route between the oceans rose to prominence in the 1840s and 1850s during the California Gold Rush. Through the 19th century, the United States competed against other imperial powers, mainly Britain and France, for land and influence in Central America. Controlling Panama was a key feature of the American rise to hemispheric dominance and overseas empire in the wake of the Spanish-American War of 1898.
Panamanians have benefited from that competition, but they have equally been victimized by it: Panama became independent in 1903, but sovereignty came at the cost of ceding the Canal Zone to the United States. Both before and after the construction of the canal, U.S. military intervention was a constant threat. Since the 1840s, the United States has intervened frequently to protect its commercial interests in Panama. U.S. troops deployed to Panama 13 times between 1856 and 1903 alone. Most seriously, the 1989 invasion resulted in the death of hundreds of Panamanian civilians, although unofficial estimates put the number in the thousands.
The history of U.S.-Panama relations is neither simple nor straightforward. The United States built the canal, and, what’s more, without support from the U.S. military, Panama would likely never have been able to secede from Colombia and establish itself as an independent nation. The United States has served as an occupier, but also a major trading partner, ally and source of cultural influence.
Many Americans have Panamanian roots and an increasing number of Americans live in Panama. Now migrants from places such as Haiti and Venezuela are crossing the Daríén Gap straddling Colombia and Panama en route to the United States, prompting a fresh humanitarian emergency and new challenges for both Panama and the United States. These are nations whose fates are tied together.
From Panama to Greenland, Mr. Trump’s expansionist ambitions point to a larger truth: In a world increasingly dependent on extended supply chains that crisscross the globe, mastery of logistics translates to economic security. Taking Pama (as Teddy Roosevelt did), Mr. Trump imagines, might secure U.S. access to the canal, while buying Greenland (as he has also suggested) would guarantee a U.S. presence at the entrance to a future northwest passage through the melting Arctic ice. In Mr. Trump’s view of international competition, it seems sea routes are to be seized, controlled and monopolized — not shared among nations with equal access to all — as is the Panama Canal.
Costs of transiting the canal are going up. But neither so-called Panamanian greed nor Chinese influence determines these costs. The truth is more straightforward, if more daunting: If we want to ensure fair, equal and sustainable access to the canal, it is climate change we’ll have to beat — not the Chinese.
Trump Wants U.S. Control of the Panama Canal. Here Are 3 Things to Know…
Treaties ratified by the Senate in 1978 established permanent neutrality, but some Republicans regret that decision. President-elect Donald J. Trump stated that Panama charges U.S. vessels "exorbitant prices" to transit the Panama Canal.
NYT by Lisa Friedman, December 26, 2024.President-elect Donald J. Trump this week escalated his threats to retake control of the Panama Canal, falsely accusing Panama of allowing Chinese soldiers to control the vital shipping route and of overcharging American ships.
Mr. Trump has claimed Panama charges U.S. vessels “exorbitant prices” and warned that if they are not reduced after he takes office next month, he will demand that the United States be granted control of the canal “in full, quickly and without question.”
On Wednesday, Mr. Trump went on another tear. Announcing his choice for ambassador to the central American nation, Kevin Marino Cabrera, he accused the Panamanian government of “ripping us off on the Panama Canal, far beyond their wildest dreams.” In a holiday screed on his social media site, Truth Social, Mr. Trump wished a merry Christmas to “the wonderful soldiers of China” who he inaccurately said were operating the canal, and griped that the United States “puts in Billions of Dollars” for canal maintenance “but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”
While it is unclear what prompted Mr. Trump’s recent obsession with the Panama Canal, some Republicans have long objected to turning it over to Panamanian control. When Ronald Reagan ran for president, he said the people of the United States were the canal’s “rightful owners” and brought audiences to their feet with the line: “We bought it; we paid for it; we built it.”
The United States under President Jimmy Carter’s administration entered into two treaties, culminating in formally turning over control of the canal to the Panamanians on Dec. 31, 1999.
“There’s a certain wing of the Republican Party that’s always been skeptical of the handover,” said Ryan C. Berg, the director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
“Complaints tend to crop up around the anniversary, and now that seems to be coming to a head because of the China issue and the desire to compete with China in the region,” he said.
Here’s three important things to know about the Panama Canal as the issue moves forward.
Who Owns the Panama Canal?
The Panama Canal was built by the United States between 1904 and 1914, and the U.S. government managed it for several decades. That situation created significant tensions with Panama over the years, and in 1964, anti-American riots broke out in the canal zone.
The riots led to the renegotiation of the Panama Canal treaties, and in 1977 Mr. Carter and the Panamanian leader Omar Efraín Torrijos signed the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. The pair of agreements guaranteed the permanent neutrality of the Panama Canal. After a period of joint custody, the treaties called for the United States to relinquish control over the canal by the year 2000.
Panama took full control in 1999, and has since operated the canal through the Panama Canal Authority.
In a statement of rebuke to Mr. Trump on Sunday, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama said “every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area belong to PANAMA.”
Mr. Mulino says U.S. vessels are not being overcharged.
Rates being charged to ships and naval vessels, he insisted, are “not on a whim.”
A Trump spokeswoman said that because the United States is the biggest user of the canal, the increase in fees hits its ships the most.
Panamanian officials said all countries are subject to the same fees, though they would differ based on ship size. They are established in public meetings by the Panama Canal Authority, and take into account market conditions, international competition, operating and maintenance costs, Mr. Mulino said.
Rates have gone up recently, however. That’s because starting in 2023, Panama experienced severe drought, driven by a combination of El Niño and climate change. With water levels at Gatun Lake, the principal hydrological reserve for the canal, at historically low levels, authorities reduced shipping through the canal to conserve the lake’s fresh water.
Mr. Trump has called climate change a hoax.
Does China control the Panama Canal?
Chinese soldiers are not, as Mr. Trump has claimed, “operating” the Panama Canal.
“There are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for the love of God,” Mr. Mulino said in a speech Thursday. “The world is free to visit the canal.”
A Hong Kong-based firm, CK Hutchison Holdings, does manage two ports at the canal’s entrances. And some experts have said that does raise valid competitive and security concerns for the United States because Hong Kong is now part of China.
For example, Mr. Berg noted, the company would likely have data on all ships coming through the Panama Canal, giving it a data advantage. China also has been using its shipping and maritime operations to gather foreign intelligence and conduct espionage.
“China exercises, or could exercise, a certain element of control even absent some military conflagration,” Mr. Berg said. “I think there is reason to be worried.”
Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said Tuesday that China “will as always respect Panama’s sovereignty” over the Panama Canal.
China is the second-largest user of the Panama Canal after the United States. In 2017, Panama cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognized it as part of China, a major win for Beijing.
Can the United States Reassert Control?
Not easily.
Mr. Mulino has made clear the Panama Canal is not for sale. He noted that the treaties established permanent neutrality of the canal and “guaranteeing its open and safe operation for all nations.” And the Senate ratified the Panama Canal treaties in 1978.
Mick Mulvaney, Mr. Trump’s former chief of staff, suggested that the provocations were merely part of a negotiating tactic to get rates down.
“You know, I don’t envision American troops going in to retake the canal, but you got to think that someone is out there scratching their head going, ‘Is Donald Trump crazy enough to do something like that?’” Mr. Mulvaney said Tuesday on “The Hill” on NewsNation.
Mr. Berg said the neutrality agreement made it unlikely that Panama would even be able to grant special rates to the United States. And, he noted, Mr. Mulino is “incredibly pro-American” and likely eager to help the incoming Trump administration deal with issues like illegal immigration.
“President Mulino is going to be a great ally with the United States,” Mr. Berg said. “We should not want this to devolve into some kind of political fight because we’re going to need President Mulino on a number of other issues.”