"Whoever controls Syria holds significant power across the Middle East. This country is more than just a spot on the map; it serves as a crucial gateway to Asia, often referred to as "the key to the House of Russia," a term famously coined by Empress Catherine the Great. But the influence of Syria extends further—it also connects to China via the historic Silk Road, which opens the door for potential global dominance. Especially now, as we enter what many are calling the Age of Gas, the stakes have never been higher."

“In the shadows of Al-sassad fall, the battle for global gas resources is a dynamic and intricate saga. As the tides of economics and politics ebb and flow, alliances are forged and dissolved, reflecting the ever-shifting landscape of current events…

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“Assad’s fall in Syria is a ‘fundamental act of justice,’ but also ‘a moment of risk,’ Biden says

The Mediterranean Sea basin is acknowledged as one of the world's largest natural gas reservoirs, with a considerable amount of these reserves located within Syrian territory. Syria plays a pivotal role in transporting gas to Europe. Traditionally, the Syrian government was led by Bashar al-Assad, the president who has recently been deposed, haft capitalized on its strategic position to negotiate advantageous terms for its gas reserves. Nevertheless, Syria has been progressively viewed as an unreliable partner by countries in need of energy resources, which are crucial for their faltering economies and are subject to continuous competition with Russia and China.

Over the past ten years, the Levantine Mediterranean Basin, especially Syria, has become increasingly significant in the oil and gas transport industry. Notably, natural gas now makes up about 25% of the world's energy consumption, and it is projected to have become the main substitute for oil since 2020. In light of this, Europe's heavy reliance on Russian natural gas has highlighted the urgent need for Western countries to find alternative sources and transportation pathways for their gas supplies.

In light of recent developments, the contest for dominance in the region has intensified significantly over the past five years. To elucidate this situation, it is pertinent to highlight certain key factors related to the escalating rivalry among multinational corporations and political entities concerning the gas sector. This discussion will specifically address the strategic significance of Syria as a conduit for gas transportation.

The Islamic Gas Pipeline…

In 2011, Syria entered into an agreement with Iran and Iraq to construct the 'Islamic Gas Pipeline,' also referred to as the 'Friendship Pipeline.' The proposed infrastructure is designed to originate from the South Pars gas field in Iran, traversing through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon before reaching the Mediterranean Sea. In the subsequent phase of the initiative, the pipeline is intended to extend beneath the Mediterranean to Greece, facilitating distribution to Europe. This new pipeline is projected to have a capacity of 110 million cubic meters of gas per day, positioning it as the largest pipeline in the Middle East, while also linking the Iraqi oil fields of Akkas and Kirkuk. Construction was anticipated to start between 2013 and 2014; however, the outbreak of civil war in Syria has resulted in the project's indefinite postponement due to the ongoing conflict and the recent fall of Al-Assad.

The South Pars gas field, recognized as the largest globally, spans approximately 9,700 square kilometers and is jointly owned by Iran and Qatar in the Gulf region. Based on the project data and information from Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC), a branch of the National Iranian Oil Company, the field possesses 14 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves. This positions it as twelve times the size of Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field, which British Petroleum (heading the Shah Deniz consortium) estimates contains 1.2 trillion cubic meters of gas. But a key fact about this potential pipeline is that its route would bypass none other than Turkey, Washington's staunch ally.

Russia is deeply involved in Syrian-Iranian projects, and its influence there is expected to complement its presence in the European gas market, rather than compete with it. Russia's gas fields are of crucial importance to Western Europe and carry significant political weight. The proposed Syrian-Iranian gas pipeline would bolster Russia's position in its energy rivalry with the West. Furthermore, should the pipeline be constructed, it is anticipated to receive support from the Russian naval base at Tartus, which is Moscow's last remaining naval base from the Cold War era in the region, alongside protection from allied states in the area.

The financing required for the construction of the Islamic gas pipeline is expected to surpass ten billion dollars. Considering the financial constraints of Middle Eastern economies, it is likely that Russia or China will provide the necessary funding for the project.

The Nabucco Project

In the mid-1990s, global fuel strategists began to acknowledge the increasing importance of natural gas as a viable alternative to oil, which was perceived as potentially limited in availability. This acknowledgment prompted the White House, with the backing of the European Union, to launch the Nabucco project, positioning it as a competitor to existing Russian initiatives. The Nabucco pipeline was designed to transport natural gas to Europe, originating in Central Asia near the Black Sea, specifically in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The pipeline was intended to traverse Turkey, where existing storage infrastructure was available, and continue through Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, ultimately reaching Austria. From Austria, the pipeline was planned to extend to the Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia, and Italy.

The initial consortium of capital associated with the Nabucco pipeline comprised several companies, including the German firm RWE, the Hungarian company MOL, the Turkish entity Botas, the Bulgarian Energy Company Holding, and the Romanian firm Transgaz. However, several years subsequent to its initial design, the pipeline has yet to progress beyond the planning stage. In 2012, the Hungarian company MOL withdrew from the Nabucco consortium. Recently, another significant partner and shareholder, the German consortium RWE, also exited the group.

Initially, the objective of this project was to facilitate the transportation of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Europe. However, Turkmenistan has commenced the construction of two gas pipelines directed towards Iran and China, and in 2013, it initiated a third pipeline to China. Consequently, Turkmenistan no longer possesses surplus gas resources available for the European Union. Furthermore, assessments conducted by various experts indicate that Azerbaijan lacks the necessary gas volumes to adequately supply the Nabucco gas pipeline. In light of these circumstances, the Azerbaijani government has opted to prioritize the ongoing Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline project, which is designed to transport gas to Italy via Turkey, Albania, and Greece, with operations expected to commence in 2017-2018.

The Nabucco pipeline project was intended to incorporate Iranian natural gas, with the United States aiming to integrate its reserves by linking them to the Erzurum storage facility in Turkey. Additionally, the project included gas supplies from the eastern Mediterranean region, specifically from Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. Nabucco was designed to transport natural gas over a distance of 3,900 kilometers through Turkish territory, with the objective of delivering 31 billion cubic meters of gas annually to European markets from the Middle East and the Caspian basin. The urgency exhibited by the NATO-US-France coalition to eliminate obstacles to their gas supply interests in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, stems from the necessity to ensure stability and garner local support for the infrastructure and investments essential to the gas industry.

South Stream y North Stream

Russian energy projects had been more fortunate until the “blast” on September 26, 2022. On the one hand, North Stream, which directly connects Russia with Germany through the Baltic Sea, recently began its works. The first branch line began construction in April 2010, was completed in June 2011 and inaugurated on November 8, 2011 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Construction of the second branch commenced in May 2011, and it started operations in 2012, continuing through to September 2022.

Nord Stream's shareholders are "Gazprom" with a 51% stake, the German company Wintershall and EON Ruhgas, as well as the Dutch and French Gasunie GDF SUEZ.

Conversely, the South Stream, Russia's second gas project, originates in Russian gas fields and traverses the Black Sea. It branches through Greece and southern Italy, and another branch passes through Hungary and Austria, culminating in Bulgaria.

South Stream AG, a Gazprom and Eni (Italy) joint venture, constructs and operates the pipeline. Work is progressing; notably, in June of this year, Gazprom and the Austrian energy consortium OMV established South Stream Austria GmbH to build the Austrian segment of the pipeline. This occurred despite Bulgaria, another project member state, suspending South Stream construction early in June at the European Commission's behest, which alleged European regulatory violations. The inaugural supply of Russian gas to Austria via this pipeline is anticipated for 2016.

Journalist and professor Imad Fawzi Shueibi posits that the primary threat to Nabucco may be Russia's strategy to undermine it by securing more favorable contracts for Gazprom with North Stream and South Stream. This could negate the efforts of the United States and Europe, reduce their influence, and unsettle their energy strategies in Iran and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, Gazprom might emerge as a key investor or operator in new gas fields in Syria and Lebanon.

In the context of Turkey, the suspension of the Nabucco project, which involved the country, has intensified its aspirations to engage in the ongoing competition for gas resources. Consequently, Turkey has aligned itself with the interests of Western imperialist nations that aim to obstruct the implementation of multinational projects spearheaded by Russia, specifically the South and North Stream initiatives, without significant involvement. This alignment is primarily motivated by the Turkish government's, under President Erdogan, dependence on the strategic objectives of Washington and NATO, as there is an urgent necessity for Nabucco to facilitate the storage, marketing, and transportation of up to 40 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

Qatar-Turkey-Syria gas pipeline

In 2009, the former Emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani, who abdicated in 2013 in favor of his son, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, engaged in discussions with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan to establish a new pipeline intended to transport Qatari natural gas to Turkey through Syria. Qatar possesses the third-largest natural gas reserves globally and is recognized as the leading producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, complications arose due to President Bashar al-Assad's initial refusal to endorse the project, which was later followed by Syria's agreement to participate in the construction of the Islamic Gas Pipeline. This new corridor was proposed as an alternative for European nations seeking to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, alongside one of the branches of the also suspended Nabucco pipeline project.

Finally, "Bill Gates: The Optimist’s Dilemma" may be a significant read. The philanthropist, who has been combating global diseases for 25 years, believes the world is at a perilous tipping point. This book offers insights for a deeper comprehension of our world, as discussed in the article from The New Statesman in this edition. It is essential to acknowledge that the current tumultuous state of the world can be traced back to the initial detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on November 17, 2019, in Wuhan, China. This virus, which is a relatively simple entity composed of proteins and nucleic acids, is capable of replication solely within specific living cells by commandeering their metabolic mechanisms.

Lastly, the note referenced in this post is derived from the Spanish article titled "Syria and the Gas," authored by Alejandra Loucau over five years ago, which remains highly relevant in contemporary discussions.

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Natural Gas Terminal AES ANDRES, located in the Dominican Republic. Image provided by AES Dominicana.

Today…

Bill Gates: the Optimist’s Dilemma

The philanthropist has been fighting global disease for 25 years. He believes the world is at a dangerous tipping point.

The New Statement by Jason Cowley

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2024/11/bill-gates-the-optimists-dilemma

The No Man's Land in the Battle for Global Gas Resources…