(FA) The Case for a Clean Energy Marshall Plan…

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How the Fight Against Climate Change Can Renew American Leadership…

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Artwork created by Germán & Co

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DANGER OF RELIANCE

In our highly connected world, it's vital to be aware of the risks associated with overdependence on a single tool, resource, or person. This kind of reliance can create vulnerabilities that may undermine overall stability and efficiency. Thus, adopting a balanced approach that encourages diversification and self-reliance is key to reducing risks and bolstering resilience across different areas.

The United States is on the cusp of a transformative journey, poised for substantial growth in the clean energy sector. To support this shift, the creation of a Clean Energy Resilience Authority is proposed. This entity would play a crucial role in strengthening our supply chains during the transition to clean energy. By fostering manufacturing in developing countries and enhancing our own production, we aim to develop diverse supply chains that are independent of any single country and resilient to critical chokepoints. Presently, China dominates with 60 percent of the world's rare-earth mining output and approximately 90 percent of its processing and refining capabilities, a dominance we intend to challenge.

To prevent replacing one dependency with another—substituting foreign oil for a reliance on Chinese critical minerals—the United States should lead a coalition to secure access to processed vital minerals. Contrary to their name, "rare-earth minerals" are abundant and dispersed across various regions. Notably, 80 percent of the world's lithium reserves, 66 percent of nickel reserves, and 50 percent of copper reserves are found in democratic countries. This is in sharp contrast to the 80 percent of oil reserves held by OPEC nations, many of which are autocratic.

Currently, the United States has a significant asset: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an oil stockpile created in response to the 1973 oil crisis. In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the U.S. utilized this reserve, releasing 180 million barrels to stabilize supply. As oil prices fell, the government started to refill the reserve, accruing nearly $600 million in profits for American taxpayers by May 2024. This approach has not only smoothed oil price volatility but also bolstered U.S. strategic objectives.

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From the Shadows of Biological Warfare to the New Era of Bioweapons...

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Artwork by Germán & Co

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One, two, three, four... oh, the joy that fills the hearts of mothers and fathers when our little ones embrace the magic of learning!  It is the little milestones that bring us the greatest delight.

We recently had the opportunity to engage with a thought-provoking (1) YouTube video by the esteemed Mr Juan Ignacio Rubiolo, the AES executive vice president and president of energy infrastructure.  The video addresses three fundamental themes: "Nurture your body, cherish your relationships, and watch your ambitions."

Embracing these fundamental principles for achieving a balanced life should ostensibly be straightforward; however, their significance often requires further exploration.  We sincerely thank Mr Rubiolo for elucidating these essential tenets to our benefit.

Let us take a moment to reflect on the concept of ambition.  Yesterday, we were presented with an engaging reflection by ManyMangoes from Dubai. "The stark contrast between America's polished ideals and the persistent violence is truly eye-opening.  What can the nation's leaders do to bridge this divide and foster a sense of unity?"  The inquiry follows an article titled "America's Fossil Fuel Boom Risks Bust in Europe," authored by Gabriel Gavin and Ben Lefebvre and published in POLITICO EU on July 19, 2024.  The article explores the potential repercussions of the United States' fossil fuel agreements with Europe, particularly as the European Union seeks to reduce its reliance on this energy source.

Let's explore a potentially invaluable insight.  From an anthropological perspective, the conclusion is evident: we, the so-called humans, are responsible for the chaos in which we currently find ourselves.  Our insatiable desire for more has always come at a cost, where one gain inevitably necessitates the sacrifice of another.

Indeed, we should only observe the events unfolding today as Russia is embroiled in a brutal conflict with Ukraine while Israel is experiencing retaliatory attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, resulting in widespread devastation.

Today, the answer to ManyMangoes, whether fortunate or unfortunate, is that the only viable solution is a second Yalta Conference that includes China.

Let's not overlook the unsettling quirks in the psyche of specific individuals, which can lead to moral missteps and complicate our ability to coexist in ways we never thought possible.  Indeed, our journey through life is a tapestry of intricate challenges, often ignited by unforeseen turmoil.  Insightful authors have long anticipated the waves of chaos and political strife that would continuously shape our existence.

The Biological Weapons Convention has faced significant shortcomings, particularly in its inability to prevent private entities and individuals from engaging in the nefarious activities associated with biological weaponry.  For example, in 1984, the Rajneesh cult in Oregon infamously contaminated salad bars with salmonella in an attempt to incapacitate rival voters and secure electoral victories for their candidates in Wasco County.  Fortunately, no lives were lost, but hundreds of individuals fell ill.  Fast forward to 1995, and the doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo unleashed chaos in Tokyo using the nerve agent sarin, having previously attempted – albeit unsuccessfully – to develop anthrax weapons.  The situation escalated further with the chilling anthrax attacks that resulted in five tragic deaths in the United States in 2001.  The attacks targeted journalists and Senate offices and were believed to be the work of a solitary American scientist.

On November 17, 2019, the world was introduced to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Wuhan, China – a simple yet formidable organism composed of proteins and nucleic acids, capable of replicating only within living cells, as defined by the Royal Spanish Academy.  This minuscule entity has brought about perhaps the most profound transformation in our emotional landscape.  It has instilled a deep-seated paranoia, cruelly reminding us that the warmth of human connection – handshakes, hugs, and genuine affection – has been supplanted by faceless digital interactions, flowing endlessly in a virtual sea and devoid of the comforting touch that nourishes the soul.  How many loved ones are now absent from our lives, all due to a supposed human error in a distant laboratory in ancient Wuhan?

The repercussions of these new living conditions extend beyond our emotional well-being; they have also disrupted various industries.  Humanity's enforced confinement hindered the flow of raw materials and components essential for production, leaving the supply chain in disarray and jeopardising our basic needs.

The scarcity of essential goods and soaring international shipping costs have unleashed the venom of inflation.  From January 2020 to December 2021, global cumulative inflation surged from 1.9% to an astonishing 3.5%, nearly doubling in one year, with projections approaching 7% by the end of the period, according to World Bank data.  Inflation has tripled over three years, creating a financial tempest that no national economy or household budget can endure.

On August 24, 2024, the Spanish newspaper El País published an article titled "From Fighting Inflation to Avoiding Recession: Monetary Policy Changes Its Focus." Miguel Jiménez, writing the article from Chicago, discusses how the Jackson Hole Symposium confirms that central banks are shifting focus from controlling prices to prioritising employment and economic activity to pursue an elusive soft landing.

This blog has addressed this topic over the past year due to the rise of atypical inflation.  The shortage of raw materials, components, and spare parts – exacerbated by ongoing conflicts, and, to a lesser extent, piracy – along with the economic measures implemented by central banks, including interest rate hikes, have done little to mitigate inflation.  A consensus exists about urgently needed interest rate cuts to prevent a recession.  Ultimately, the only viable solution is to urgently pursue concessions and end the conflict.

(2)Biological weapons are considered worse than nuclear weapons…

The clock is ticking, and action is imperative; the alternative could spell disaster.  If a lab-engineered or enhanced pathogen were to escape, the consequences could be catastrophic.  Certain synthetic germs could potentially cause devastation beyond what the novel coronavirus unleashed, producing a staggering loss of life and economic turmoil.  In the bleakest scenarios, we could witness a global death toll that surpasses the horrors of the Black Death, which claimed the lives of one in three individuals in Europe.

Let us extend our heartfelt gratitude to Mr Rubiolo for illuminating the three essential pillars that support a harmonious existence.  We must also extend our gratitude to ManyMangoes for initiating this crucial dialogue on fostering peace in our world. Thank you!

(1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zt-EP6CoFgg

(2) https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/new-bioweapons-covid-biology

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Artwork by Germán & Co

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(FA) The Case for a Clean Energy Marshall Plan…

Foreign Affairs by Brian Deese, September/October 2024.

For decades, global integration—of trade, of politics, of technology—was seen as a natural law. Today, integration has been replaced by fragmentation. The post–Cold War institutions are teetering, industrial strategies are back in vogue, and competition with China is growing. These dynamics are creating geopolitical friction across global supply chains, for vehicles, minerals, computer chips, and more.

Against this backdrop, the clean energy transition remains the most important planetary challenge. It also presents the greatest economic opportunity: it will be the largest capital formation event in human history. And it presents the United States with a chance to lead. Thanks to its still unparalleled power and influence, Washington maintains a unique capacity—and a strategic imperative—to shape world outcomes.

In 2022, the United States recognized these opportunities when it passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the world’s largest-ever investment in clean energy technologies. This transformative industrial strategy was a crucial first step for the United States in positioning its economy for success by accelerating the clean energy transition at home. Now is the time to take this leadership to the global stage, in a way that promotes U.S. interests and supports aligned countries. But the United States need not create a new model for doing so.

Seventy-six years ago, also facing a fractured world order and an emerging superpower competitor, U.S. President Harry Truman and U.S. Secretary of State George Marshall launched an ambitious effort to rebuild European societies and economies. Although often associated with free-market neoliberalism, the 1948 Marshall Plan was hardly laissez-faire. It was, in fact, an industrial strategy that established the United States as a generous partner to European allies while promoting U.S. industries and interests. Generations later, the Marshall Plan is rightly understood as one of the great successes of the postwar era.

Although today’s challenges are undoubtedly different, the United States should draw lessons from that postwar period and launch a new Marshall Plan, this time for the global transition to clean energy. Just as the Marshall Plan assisted those countries most ravaged by World War II, the new Marshall Plan should aim to help countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change: the United States’ partners in the developing world. Developing countries and emerging markets will need access to cheap capital and technology to transition away from fossil fuels quickly enough to halt global warming.

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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The United States again has the chance to help others while helping itself. Putting its own burgeoning industries front and center in the energy transition will generate further innovation and growth. Clean energy investment in the United States reached about 7.4 percent of private fixed investment in structures and equipment in the first quarter of this year, at $40 billion, up from $16 billion in the first quarter of 2021. Investment in emerging energy technologies—such as hydrogen power, carbon capture and storage—jumped by 1,000 percent from 2022 to 2023. Manufacturing investment in the battery supply chain went up nearly 200 percent over the same period. By creating global markets for its own clean energy industries and innovators, the United States can scale back these economic gains and strengthen domestic support for an energy shift that has not always been an easy sell to voters.

The fracturing of world order and the ominous climate crisis lead some observers to focus on the potential tensions between those two developments. But they also provide an opening for the United States to deploy its innovation and capital in a generous, pragmatic, and unapologetically pro-American way—by launching a Clean Energy Marshall Plan.

THE SINCEREST FORM OF FLATTERY

Gauzy invocations of the Marshall Plan often induce eye rolling, and with good reason. In U.S. policy circles, commentators have called for a new Marshall Plan for everything from ending global poverty to rebuilding Ukraine. The term has become shorthand for a response to any problem that mobilizes public resources to achieve an ambitious end. But this overuse has blurred the substance of what the Marshall Plan really was—and was not.

The Marshall Plan was not, as many assume, born solely out of visionary ideals of international unity after the horrors of World War II. Instead, it reflected the pragmatic constraints of a fracturing, uncertain world order. In the spring of 1947, having returned from China after a failed attempt to head off a communist takeover there, Marshall was left to grapple with the newly emerged Iron Curtain in Europe. The shifting geopolitical reality forced Truman and Marshall to consider how to exert U.S. leadership to shape the world for good—to forge peace, rebuild cities, and promote American values in the face of communism. But they clearly recognized the limits of hard power and understood that economic stability could yield geopolitical stability.

Fundamentally, the Marshall Plan was an industrial strategy that deployed public dollars to advance U.S. manufacturing and industrial capabilities in service of reconstructing Europe. Washington spent $13 billion—equivalent to $200 billion today—over four years, mostly in the form of grants to discount the European purchase of goods and services. Because U.S. companies were at the center of the program, 70 percent of European expenditures of Marshall Plan funds were used to buy products made in the United States. Italy, for example, used Marshall Plan funds to buy American drilling technology, pipes, and other industrial equipment to rebuild its energy sector—including the equipment needed to restart Europe’s first commercial geothermal plant, powered by steam from lava beds in Tuscany. By 1950, that region had more than doubled its geothermal capacity and remained a major contributor to Italy’s total power demand.

The adoption of low-cost clean energy technologies is not self-executing.

The structure of the Marshall Plan allowed it to meet Europe’s pressing needs while winning over a skeptical and war-weary American public. Because there was little appetite for providing foreign aid following World War II, Marshall and Truman centered their plan on Americans’ economic interests. The country’s industrial capabilities had grown considerably during the war, but after the war, the task was to find new markets for them. As the plan’s chief administrator, Paul Hoffman, explained, the goal was to turn Europe into a “consumer of American goods” at a time when postwar U.S. GDP had fallen precipitously and exports were imperiled by a moribund European economy. The Marshall Plan would thus help American companies and save American jobs.

To sell the plan to the public, its architects and supporters launched a public relations campaign, squarely anchoring their case in these core U.S. economic interests. In the ten months after Marshall’s June 1947 speech introducing the plan, it gained traction, securing a 75 percent public approval rating and winning over a majority of the U.S. Congress—in an election year and with a divided government to boot.

Yet even though the Marshall Plan was attuned to U.S. economic interests, its architects recognized that it was important for the United States to be a generous, reliable partner to U.S. allies. The plan helped Europe rise from the rubble, pay off its debts, refill its foreign exchange reserves, recover its industrial production and agricultural output, adopt new technologies, and build goodwill for the United States, all while reducing the appeal of communism. By filling a financing gap that no other power could, the United States cemented its transatlantic partnerships. And by supporting its own economy, it became a capable and reliable global partner.

THE CHEAPER, THE BETTER

Like the original Marshall Plan, a Clean Energy Marshall Plan should meet other countries’ development needs while advancing U.S. interests. In this case, the goal is to speed the adoption of low-cost, zero-carbon solutions, such as the manufacture of batteries, the deployment of nuclear and geothermal energy, and the processing of critical minerals. This approach reflects the basic intuition that, as useful as it can be to make carbon pollution more expensive by putting a price on it, the most credible way to accelerate the adoption of zero-carbon technologies is to make that technology cheap and widely available.

The Inflation Reduction Act embodies this theory: it created long-term public incentives that promote the innovation and deployment of a variety of clean energy technologies. This public investment is already transforming the U.S. energy industry, and it holds even more potential for global energy markets. By driving down the cost of clean energy technologies—particularly innovative technologies such as nuclear power and carbon capture—the IRA could generate up to $120 billion in global savings by 2030. The resulting uptake of clean energy technologies in emerging markets could ultimately yield emission reductions in the rest of the world that would be two to four times as large as those achieved in the United States.

But the adoption of low-cost clean energy technologies is not self-executing. Without U.S. leadership, the world will simply not do enough fast enough to limit the worst effects of global warming. Unfortunately, the United States has yet to offer a full-throated answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the $1 trillion infrastructure project Beijing designed to expand its influence across the globe. And now, some leaders in China are calling for Beijing to go even further and develop a Marshall Plan–style approach to drive clean energy adoption in developing countries. Meanwhile, other players are also stepping up where the United States has not. For all the controversy about the United Arab Emirates—a fossil fuel nation—hosting last year’s UN climate conference, it is notable that it was the UAE, and not the United States, that proposed a large funding effort aimed at scaling zero-carbon technology to appropriate levels for emerging markets.

Ceding this space is a failure of American leadership and a missed economic opportunity. Skepticism of the United States, exacerbated by its handling of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, is already high in Southeast Asia and across the developing world, where Washington cannot afford to see alliances fray. And when countries there look to China or the UAE for capital and technology, American innovators and workers lose ground.

Implementing a Clean Energy Marshall Plan won’t be easy, but the process must begin now. As after World War II, the United States can be generous as well as pro-American in its approach. It can promote U.S. interests by scaling its industries to meet global needs while winning greater influence in this new geopolitical landscape. And it can meet developing countries where they are—supplying them with the energy they need to expand their economies and the innovation they need to decarbonize efficiently.

To accomplish these aims, however, Washington needs a clear mandate, adequate resources, and flexible tools. And it will need to enact a strategy that does three things: finances foreign deployment of U.S. clean energy technology, secures more resilient supply chains, and creates a new, more balanced trade regime that encourages the development and implementation of clean energy technology.

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

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HOMEGROWN ADVANTAGES

The United States should begin with a focused investment and commercial diplomacy effort, akin to that of the Marshall Plan. The Marshall Plan had a straightforward aim: subsidize European demand for U.S. products and services needed to rebuild Europe. Today, the United States should establish a Clean Energy Finance Authority with an updated mission: subsidize foreign demand for clean energy technology and put American innovation and industry at the front of the line.

The new body would enable the United States to participate in foreign deals that promote U.S. innovation and production while reducing emissions. The purpose would be to reduce the premium that emerging-market economies must pay to meet their energy needs in a low-carbon way. To receive U.S. investments, governments and private sectors in these countries would themselves need to invest in clean energy. The promise of reliable U.S. support would prompt reform.

The good news is that most of the technologies necessary, from solar power to battery storage to wind turbines, are already commercially scalable. Other technologies are now scaling up rapidly, thanks to U.S. investment. For example, the United States has used its existing drilling capacity to become the world’s leading producer of advanced geothermal energy. It is well positioned to leverage its homegrown advantages to export geothermal components to geopolitically important markets in Southeast Asia and Africa and beyond, where sources of reliable power are needed. The more these technologies are deployed, the more costs will come down, as processes become more efficient with scale. With patient capital, dividends will be manifold: steady, clean power; faster-growing markets; diversified supply chains; and support for hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs. Similar opportunities exist for advanced nuclear and hydrogen power and carbon capture.

The United States has yet to offer a full-throated answer to the Belt and Road Initiative.

To be effective, the Clean Energy Finance Authority would need to be big yet nimble. Not only has the United States lagged other countries in offering public capital to lead the energy transition, but its financial support is also unnecessarily inflexible. Officials in foreign capitals joke that the United States shows up with a 100-page list of conditions, whereas China shows up with a blank check. The United States’ current financing authorities are constrained by byzantine rules that block U.S. investment that could advance its national interests.

For example, the U.S. Development Finance Corporation, which invests in projects in lower- and middle-income countries, cannot invest in lithium processing projects in Chile because it is considered a high-income country, yet companies in the low-income Democratic Republic of the Congo often find it impossible to meet the DFC’s stringent labor standards. Meanwhile, Chinese companies invested over $200 million in a Chilean lithium plant in 2023 and gained rights to explore Congolese lithium mines the same year. Of course, U.S. finance must continue to reflect American values, but there is still room for far greater flexibility in the name of national interest and the energy transition.

Promising models for a Clean Energy Finance Authority also exist. Domestically, the Department of Energy’s Loan Program Office rapidly expanded its capabilities, approving 11 investment commitments to companies totaling $18 billion in the past two fiscal years (versus just two commitments in the three years before that). Internationally, the DFC expanded its climate lending from less than $500 million to nearly $4 billion over the last three years. And the United States has supported creative financial partnerships with several countries. In Egypt, for example, the United States and Germany committed $250 million to stimulate $10 billion of private capital to accelerate the Egyptian energy transition.

The most effective aspects of these examples should be harnessed together under the Clean Energy Finance Authority, which should have a versatile financial toolkit, including the ability to issue debt and equity. It should be able to deploy this capital in creative arrangements, such as by blending it with foreign capital and lowering risk premiums with insurance and guarantees. It should draw on, not re-create, the Department of Energy’s expertise in assessing the risks and benefits of emerging technologies, such as advanced nuclear energy, hydrogen power, and carbon capture and storage. The Clean Energy Finance Authority could be managed by the U.S. Treasury Department, in light of the latter’s experience in risk underwriting and financial diligence, and given the mandate to coordinate closely across agencies.

With nimble, market-oriented financing capacities, the Clean Energy Finance Authority would be able to accelerate and initiate, not impede, financial transactions. Whereas the Marshall Plan was 90 percent financed with U.S. grants, a Clean Energy Marshall Plan could easily be the inverse, with less than ten percent of its expenditures in the form of grants and the rest of the capital being deployed as equity, debt, export credit, and other forms of financing. And whereas the Chinese Belt and Road model relies on government-dominated financing, an American approach would be market-based and therefore more efficient because it enables competition and encourages large investments of private capital.

The Clean Energy Finance Authority should be capitalized with a significant upfront commitment of money—enough to generate market momentum that tips the balance of clean energy investment toward the private sector; ultimately the private sector, not the public sector, will need to provide the majority of the financing the energy transition needs over the coming decades. If this new authority is set up and deployed properly, U.S. companies and innovators would gain more foreign demand, on favorably negotiated terms, and new market share. Foreign consumers, for their part, would gain access to new channels of cheap clean energy technology. For emerging-market countries and major emitters—such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia—the United States could act with both generosity and its own interests in mind.

THE DANGER OF DEPENDENCE

The United States should also establish a Clean Energy Resilience Authority, whose goal would be to create more resilient supply chains for the clean energy transition. To support burgeoning manufacturing production in developing countries, and to expand that of the United States, the world needs diversified supply chains that are not dominated by individual states and do not have exploitable chokepoints. Today, China controls 60 percent of the world’s rare-earth mining production and approximately 90 percent of its processing and refining capability.

The United States should lead a coalition of partners to build access to processed critical minerals such that the energy transition does not substitute dependence on foreign oil for dependence on Chinese critical minerals. Thankfully, the term “rare-earth minerals” is a misnomer: these elements are abundant and geographically dispersed. Eighty percent of the world’s lithium reserves, 66 percent of its nickel reserves, and 50 percent of its copper reserves are in democracies. Eighty percent of oil reserves, by contrast, are in OPEC countries, nearly all of which are autocracies.

In today’s energy market, the most important tool the United States wields is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a stockpile of oil created 50 years ago as a response to the 1973 oil crisis. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in 2022, the U.S. government used this reserve to ensure adequate supply by selling 180 million barrels of oil. When prices fell, the administration began refilling the reserve, securing a profit for U.S. taxpayers of close to $600 million as of May 2024. The mechanism has reduced the volatility of oil prices while advancing U.S. strategic interests.

As part of the Clean Energy Marshall Plan, Washington must level the playing field through the use of trade tools.

The United States should create a strategic reserve capability for critical minerals, as well. A body similar to the U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, a reserve fund used to prevent fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar, but for critical minerals would enable the United States to stabilize the market for these resources. The Clean Energy Resilience Authority could offer various forms of financial insurance that would steady prices, protect consumers from price spikes, and generate stable revenue for producers during low-price periods. And it should have the ability to build up physical stockpiles of key minerals, such as graphite and cobalt, whether on U.S. soil or in allied territory.

Support for this type of reserve capability already exists. The bipartisan House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party recommended just such a body. The United States’ allies are also on board: in May, South Korea allocated an additional nearly $200 million to build up domestic lithium reserves. Indeed, the original Marshall Plan also recognized the need to improve access to strategically important materials, funding domestic stockpiles for goods such as industrial equipment and medical supplies.

With the Clean Energy Resilience Authority, the United States would be better able to craft multilateral agreements to diversify critical minerals processing. As part of that effort, it could organize a critical minerals club among leading producers and consumers, wherein members could offer and receive purchase commitments. Such an arrangement would give countries that produce and process minerals reliable access to the United States and other developed markets—assuming they meet high standards for sustainable and ethical mining practices. The outcome would be more minerals processed in a more diverse supply chain, sold into a more stable market.

TRADING PLACES

The Marshall Plan underscored the importance of using trade policy to advance U.S. interests: it required European countries to integrate their economies and to remove trade barriers as a means of expanding U.S. exports, promoting capitalism, and warding off communism. A Clean Energy Marshall Plan should help lead a coalition to elicit a more balanced global trading system.

Right now, China is the central actor in global supply chains for clean energy technologies. Facing a stalling domestic economy, China is pursuing a state-led strategy of investing in domestic manufacturing capacity rather than in greater domestic demand or a stronger social safety net. For some goods, such as electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels, China explicitly aims to dominate global manufacturing. That strategy is fundamentally unsustainable for the global economy. For one thing, it creates acute supply chain vulnerabilities; because the world relies so heavily on China for processing rare-earth minerals, a natural disaster or geopolitical tensions could threaten the entire global supply. For another thing, the strategy erodes industrial capacity across the world, including in the United States. By flooding global markets with artificially cheap goods without a commensurate increase in imports, China forces the cost of its subsidies onto its trade partners—undercutting employment, innovation, and industrial capacity elsewhere. Indeed, this strategy even harms China’s own industrial sector and fails to address the root causes of its domestic economic challenges.

As part of the Clean Energy Marshall Plan, Washington must level the global playing field through the active yet measured use of trade tools such as tariffs. Doing nothing and being resigned to China’s statist approach is neither economically nor politically sustainable. And using blunt tools to effectuate what amounts to a unilateral retreat is dangerous. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to essentially end all imports from China within four years is a cynical fantasy playing on populist fears. In 2022, U.S. goods and services trade with China amounted to over $750 billion. It is not practicable to decouple from any major economy, let alone the United States’ third-largest trading partner. Global trade delivers important benefits, whereas unilateral, asymmetric escalation would leave the United States isolated and vulnerable.

The right approach is to harmonize more active trade policies with like-minded countries. Indeed, Brazil, Chile, India, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam, among others, are all investigating or imposing tariffs on Chinese dumping practices. China is now the object of twice as many retaliatory measures as it was four years ago. The growing pushback represents a chance for the United States to address the Chinese-driven global trade imbalance by crafting a global coalition to galvanize a coordinated response while creating more global trade in clean energy goods and services.

To accomplish this, the United States must use expanded, stronger, and smarter trade authorities. For example, Washington should build into its tariffs on imported goods an assessment of how much carbon was used to produce them. Tariffs should be determined by the emission intensity of the trading partner’s entire industry, rather than company by company, to avoid “resource reshuffling,” whereby countries try to dodge penalties by limiting their exports to only products manufactured with clean energy instead of reducing their emissions overall. These tariffs should be aimed at all countries, but given its current production practices, China would be hit the hardest.

This form of tariff regime could be coordinated with what other countries are doing on the same front. The effort should begin with the steel sector. Chinese-made steel is two to five times as carbon-intensive as U.S.-made steel and is being dumped in markets around the world. The United States has been working on an arrangement with the European Union to harmonize tariffs on steel and aluminum. But the EU need not be the United States’ first or only partner in this initiative. There is a global appetite to enact a common external tariff regime on China to respond to its overproduction and carbon-intensive practices. Washington should work to pull this group together through the G-7 and G-20.

There is also a domestic appetite for this approach, in both the U.S. Congress and the private sector. For example, Dow Chemical has advocated the use of carbon policies to favor environmentally responsible industries that make heavily traded goods. Several bipartisan bills now in Congress propose similar policies. The United States could develop an industrial competitiveness program for heavy industries, such as those producing cement, steel, and chemicals, that bolsters domestic industry and makes trade more fair by charging a carbon-based fee on both domestic industries and imports at the border. This program would incentivize domestic innovation and efficiency, and it would advantage environmentally responsible U.S. companies that compete with heavy-carbon-emitting foreign producers. The revenue from the fee could be rebated to the U.S. private sector by rewarding the cleanest domestic producers and investing in research and development.

Investing in a clean energy transition abroad will benefit businesses and workers at home.

A carbon-based tariff, or a carbon border adjustment, should further motivate climate action by exempting countries that are hitting their nationally determined goals under the 2016 Paris climate agreement or those that fall below certain income and emission thresholds. To complement the Clean Energy Finance Authority, the tariff could be lowered in exchange for foreign procurement of clean energy technologies or of clean products made in the United States. For many developing countries, the tariff would act as a powerful accelerant to their energy development plans.

This approach would allow the United States to transition from its current indiscriminate, broad-based tariff regime to a more comprehensive carbon-based system that more accurately targets Chinese overcapacity and trade imbalance concerns. And the United States should leave the door open to cooperating with China in this context, as well.

Policymakers will have to reimagine existing trade rules—and be willing to lead the World Trade Organization and other international institutions in thinking about how trade can accelerate the clean energy transition. The WTO’s objective was never just to promote free trade for free trade’s sake; its founding document includes a vision for sustainable development. The WTO must reform if it is to deliver on that vision, but in the meantime, the United States shouldn’t cling to old trade conventions when more targeted and effective approaches exist.

BANKING FOR THE FUTURE

Finally, as the United States upgrades its tools of economic statecraft, it should also increase its expectations of the world’s multilateral development banks, especially the World Bank. Like its predecessor, the Clean Energy Marshall Plan would be temporary, designed to unlock a wave of innovation investment to address a global need. Multilateral development banks are a necessary complement to active U.S. leadership today, just as they were in the postwar era. But the banks need to deploy their capital with the urgency that the energy transition and economic development demand. Although there has been a welcome recent focus on this reform agenda—including by the Biden administration, the G-20, and even the banks themselves—progress has been tepid, and conventional proposals lack ambition and creativity. Incremental change is not enough.

Some avenues already exist to spur the proper level of ambition. For example, donor countries can increase the stakes for the banks by fostering competition among them to make tangible progress on reforms that increase lending for climate-related projects and leverage their investments more effectively. Washington can already provide capital in the form of guarantees to multilateral development banks; this authority could be expanded such that U.S. capital is allocated to these banks based on which ones deserve it most. This “play to get paid” structure would challenge the banks to come forward with legitimate plans to improve their lending practices for clean energy projects. And the guarantee structure offers a great bang for the buck: the World Bank can spend $6 for every $1 of guarantee provided.

The Green Climate Fund, the sole multilateral public financial institution devoted to addressing climate change, could follow this approach, too. Almost 15 years after it was founded, the GCF has disbursed only 20 percent of the funding it has received. To speed up its progress and increase its leverage, the GCF should allocate a portion of its funds to the multilateral development banks, building on its existing practice of lending to these institutions, based on a similar “play to get paid” principle. Instead of submitting individual project applications, the banks would submit proposals for leveraging hybrid capital to scale climate lending in support of the GCF’s mission, including the even split between those projects that prevent climate change and those that respond to its current impacts. In other words, the banks that can best attack the problem would receive flexible GCF capital to scale those efforts. Such a change would be merely one part of a multilateral system that maintains the momentum created by a Clean Energy Marshall Plan.

WIN-WIN-WIN

The Clean Energy Marshall Plan has the makings of a compelling pitch to U.S. domestic audiences: investing in the clean energy transition abroad will benefit businesses and workers at home. Evidence of that effect is already easy to find. The clean investment boom is turning novel technologies into market mainstays: emerging technologies such as hydrogen power and carbon capture now each receive more investment than wind. Billions of dollars are flowing to areas of the United States left behind by previous economic booms, bringing new jobs with them. But to further this momentum, the country needs to turn to foreign markets to boost demand for U.S. products.

The United States should seize the occasion to lead on its own terms. The Clean Energy Marshall Plan would be good for U.S. workers and businesses, unlocking billions of dollars of market opportunities; good for the United States’ developing country partners, by delivering low-cost decarbonization solutions; and good for the world order, by building more resilient supply chains and a more balanced and sustainable trading system.

Such a plan requires political focus and money, but it is not impossible. The United States can spend far less than it did on the Marshall Plan, thanks to the better financial tools available today and falling clean technology costs. And it could recycle the proceeds from a carbon-based border adjustment tariff into the finance and resilience authorities, thus setting up a system that pays for itself.

In this moment of domestic economic strength—stark against the backdrop of heightened competition, a fracturing world, and a raging climate crisis—the United States can do something generous for people across the globe in a way that benefits Americans. It should take that leap, not just because it is the morally right thing to do but also because it is the strategically necessary thing to do.

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(FA) The Perils of Isolationism… By Condoleezza Rice…

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The World Still America—and America Still Needs the World?

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Artwork by Germán & Co

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Good morning and happy Monday to everyone!

For several months, our blog has been delivering unbiased analyses of critical issues such as economic trends, energy challenges, and geopolitical shifts. It is with great excitement that we present a remarkable essay by Ms. Condoleezza Rice, featured in Foreign Affairs magazine. Ms. Rice, born on November 14, 1954, in Birmingham, Alabama, carved her place in history as the 66th Secretary of State of the United States, appointed during President George W. Bush's administration. Notably, she was the first African-American woman to hold this prestigious role, succeeding Colin Powell as the second African-American and Madeleine Albright as the second woman in the position. Additionally, she served as the first female National Security Advisor in President Bush's initial term, playing a pivotal role in shaping national security policies. We invite you to delve into her perceptive essays.

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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In times of uncertainty, people reach for historical analogies. After 9/11, George W. Bush administration officials invoked Pearl Harbor as a standard comparison in processing the intelligence failure that led to the attack. Secretary of State Colin Powell referred to Imperial Japan’s attack in making the case that Washington should deliver an ultimatum to the Taliban, saying, “Decent countries don’t launch surprise attacks.” And as officials in the Situation Room tried to assess progress in Afghanistan and, later, Iraq, another analogy came up more than a few times: U.S. President Lyndon Johnson’s disastrous reliance on body counts in Vietnam. Even if history doesn’t repeat itself, it sometimes rhymes.

Today’s favorite analogy is the Cold War. The United States again faces an adversary that has global reach and insatiable ambition, with China taking the place of the Soviet Union. This is a particularly attractive comparison, of course, because the United States and its allies won the Cold War. But the current period is not a Cold War redux. It is more dangerous.

China is not the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was self-isolating, preferring autarky to integration, whereas China ended its isolation in the late 1970s. A second difference between the Soviet Union and China is the role of ideology. Under the Brezhnev Doctrine that governed Eastern Europe, an ally had to be a carbon copy of Soviet-style communism. China, by contrast, is largely agnostic about the internal composition of other states. It fiercely defends the primacy and superiority of the Chinese Communist Party but does not insist that others do the equivalent, even if it is happy to support authoritarian states by exporting its surveillance technology and social media services.

THE REVENGE OF GEOPOLITICS

While previous eras of competition were characterized by great-power clashes, during the Cold War, territorial conflict was fought largely through proxies, as in Angola and Nicaragua. Moscow mostly confined its use of military force to its own sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, as when it crushed uprisings in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. The 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan crossed a new line, but the move did not fundamentally challenge U.S. interests, and the conflict eventually became a proxy war. Where Soviet and U.S. forces did face each other directly, across the German divide, the extreme danger of the two Berlin crises gave way to a kind of tense stability thanks to nuclear deterrence.

Today’s security landscape features the danger of direct military conflict between great powers. China’s territorial claims challenge U.S. allies from Japan to the Philippines and other U.S. partners in the region, such as India and Vietnam. Long-held U.S. interests such as freedom of navigation run into direct conflict with China’s maritime ambitions.

Then there is Taiwan. An attack on Taiwan would require a U.S. military response, even if the policy of “strategic ambiguity” created uncertainty about the exact nature of it. For years, the United States has acted as a kind of rheostat in the Taiwan Strait, with the goal of preserving the status quo. Since 1979, administrations from both parties have sold arms to Taiwan. President Bill Clinton deployed the USS Independence to the strait in 1996 in response to Beijing’s aggressive activity. In 2003, the Bush administration publicly chastised Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian when he proposed a referendum that sounded very much like a vote on independence. All along, the goal was to maintain—or occasionally, restore—what had become a relatively stable status quo.

Xi has turned out to be a true Marxist.

In recent years, Beijing’s aggressive military activities around Taiwan have challenged that equilibrium. In Washington, strategic ambiguity has largely given way to open discussion of how to deter and, if necessary, repel a Chinese invasion. But Beijing could threaten Taiwan in other ways. It could blockade the island, as Chinese forces have practiced in exercises. Or it could seize small, uninhabited Taiwanese islands, cut underwater cables, or launch large-scale cyberattacks. These strategies might be smarter than a risky and difficult assault on Taiwan and would complicate a U.S. response.

The overarching point is that Beijing has Taiwan in its sights. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who views the island as a rogue province, wants to complete the restoration of China and take his place in the pantheon of leaders next to Mao Zedong. Hong Kong is now effectively a province of China, and bringing Taiwan to heel would fulfill Xi’s ambition. That risks open conflict between U.S. and Chinese forces.

Alarmingly, the United States and China still have none of the deconfliction measures in place that the United States and Russia do. During the 2008 war in Georgia, for instance, Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had ongoing contact with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Makarov, so as to avoid an incident as the U.S. Air Force flew Georgian troops home from Iraq to join the fight. Compare that with 2001, when a hot-dogging Chinese pilot hit a U.S. reconnaissance plane and forced it to the ground. The crew was detained on Hainan Island, and for three days, Washington was unable to make high-level contact with the Chinese leadership. I was national security adviser at the time. Finally, I located my Chinese counterpart, who was on a trip in Argentina, and got the Argentines to take a phone to him at a barbecue. “Tell your leaders to take our call,” I implored. Only then were we able to defuse the crisis and free the crew. The reopening of military-to-military contacts with China earlier this year, after a four-year freeze, was a welcome development. But it is a far cry from the types of procedures and lines of communication needed to prevent accidental catastrophe.

China’s conventional military modernization is impressive and accelerating. The country now has the largest navy in the world, with over 370 ships and submarines. The growth in China’s nuclear arsenal is also alarming. While the United States and the Soviet Union came to a more or less common understanding of how to maintain the nuclear equilibrium during the Cold War, that was a two-player game. If China’s nuclear modernization continues, the world will face a more complicated, multiplayer scenario—and without the safety net that Moscow and Washington developed.

The potential for conflict comes against the backdrop of an arms race in revolutionary technologies: artificial intelligence, quantum computing, synthetic biology, robotics, advances in space, and others. In 2017, Xi gave a speech in which he declared that China would surpass the United States in these frontier technologies by 2035. Although he was undoubtedly trying to rally China’s scientists and engineers, it may be a speech he has come to regret. Just as it was after the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik satellite, the United States was forced to confront the possibility that it could lose a technological race to its main adversary—a realization that has spurred a concerted pushback from Washington.

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, the United States suddenly understood further vulnerabilities. The supply chain for everything from pharmacological inputs to rare-earth minerals depended on China. Beijing had taken the lead in industries that the United States once dominated, such as the production of batteries. Access to high-end semiconductors, an industry created by American giants such as Intel, turned out to depend on the security of Taiwan, where 90 percent of advanced chip making takes place.

It is hard to overstate the shock and sense of betrayal that gripped U.S. leaders. U.S. policy toward China was always something of an experiment, with proponents of economic engagement betting that it would induce political reform. For decades, the benefits flowing from the bet seemed to outweigh the downsides. Even if there were problems with intellectual property protection and market access (and there were), Chinese domestic growth fueled international economic growth. China was a hot market, a good place to invest, and a valued supplier of low-cost labor. Supply chains stretched from China across the world. By the time China joined the World Trade Organization, in 2001, the total trade volume between the United States and China had increased roughly fivefold over the previous decade, reaching $120 billion. It seemed inevitable that China would change internally, since economic liberalization and political control were ultimately incompatible. Xi came to power agreeing with this maxim, but not in the way the West had hoped: instead of economic liberalization, he chose political control.

Not surprisingly, the United States eventually reversed course, beginning with the Trump administration and continuing through the Biden administration. A bipartisan agreement emerged that China’s behavior was unacceptable. As a result, the United States’ technological decoupling from China is now well underway, and a labyrinth of restrictions impedes outbound and inbound investment. For now, American universities remain open to training Chinese graduate students and to international collaboration, both of which have significant benefits for the U.S. scientific community. But there is far more awareness of the challenge that these activities can pose for national security.

So far, however, decoupling does not extend to the full range of commercial activity. The international economy will still be well served by trade and investment between the world’s two largest economies. The dream of seamless integration may be dead, but there are benefits—including to global stability—if Beijing continues to have a stake in the international system. Some problems, such as climate change, will be difficult to address without China’s involvement. Washington and Beijing will need to find a new basis for a workable relationship.

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RUSSIAN EMPIRE REBORN

In the final 2012 presidential debate, U.S. President Barack Obama argued that his opponent, Mitt Romney, was overhyping the danger from Russia, suggesting that the country was no longer a geopolitical threat. With the 2014 annexation of Crimea, it became clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin begged to differ.

The next step, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has brought his ambition to restore the Russian Empire face to face with the redlines of Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, which stipulates that an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all. Early in the war, NATO worried that Moscow might attack supply lines in Poland and Romania, both members of the alliance. So far, Putin has shown no appetite for triggering Article 5, but the Black Sea (which the tsars considered a Russian lake) has again become a source of conflict and tension. Remarkably, Ukraine, a country that barely has a navy, has successfully challenged Russian naval power and can now move grain along its own coastline. Even more devastating for Putin, his gambit has produced a strategic alignment among Europe, the United States, and much of the rest of the world, leading to extensive sanctions against Russia. It is now an isolated and heavily militarized state.

Putin surely never thought it would turn out this way. Moscow initially predicted Ukraine would fall within days of the invasion. Russian forces were carrying three days’ worth of provisions and dress uniforms for the parade they expected to hold in Kyiv. The embarrassing first year of the war exposed the weaknesses of the Russian armed forces, which turned out to be riddled with corruption and incompetence. But as it has done throughout its history, Russia has stabilized the front, relying on old-fashioned tactics such as human wave attacks, trenches, and land mines. The incremental way in which the United States and its allies supplied weapons to Ukraine—first debating whether to send tanks, then doing so, and so on—gave Moscow breathing room to mobilize its defense industrial base and throw its huge manpower advantage at the Ukrainians.

Great-power DNA is still very much in the American genome.

Still, the economic toll will haunt Moscow for years to come. An estimated one million Russians fled their country in response to Putin’s war, many of them young and well educated. Russia’s oil and gas industry has been crippled by the loss of important markets and the withdrawal of the multinational oil giants BP, Exxon, and Shell. Russia’s talented central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, has covered up many of the economy’s vulnerabilities, walking a tightrope without access to the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets held in the West, and China has stepped in to take off some of the pressure. But the cracks in the Russian economy are showing. According to a report commissioned for Gazprom, the majority-state-owned energy giant, the company’s revenue will stay below its pre-war level for at least ten years thanks to the effects of the invasion.

Thoughtful economic players in Moscow are worried. But Putin cannot lose this war, and he is willing to sacrifice everything to stave off disaster. As Germany’s experience in the interwar period suggests, an isolated, militarized, declining power is exceedingly dangerous.

The challenge is complicated by Russia’s growing cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea. The four countries have a common cause: to undermine and replace the U.S.-led international system that they detest. Still, it is worth noting that their strategic interests are not easy to harmonize. Beijing cannot let Putin lose but likely has no real enthusiasm for his adventurism on behalf of a new Russian empire—particularly if it puts China in the cross hairs for secondary sanctions on its own struggling economy.

Meanwhile, the growth of Chinese power in Central Asia and beyond is not likely to warm the hearts of the xenophobes in the Kremlin. China’s ambitions complicate Russia’s relations with India, a long-standing military partner that is now turning more toward the United States. Russia’s dalliance with North Korea complicates its own relationship with South Korea—and China’s, as well. Iran terrifies both Russia and China as it moves closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran’s proxies are a constant source of trouble in the Middle East: the Houthis endanger shipping in the Red Sea, Hamas recklessly launched a war with Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon threatens to widen that war into a regional conflagration, and militias in Iraq and Syria that Tehran does not always seem to control have carried out attacks on U.S. military personnel. A nasty and unstable Middle East is not good for Russia or China. And none of the three powers really trusts North Korea’s erratic leader, Kim Jong Un.

That said, international politics has always made for strange bedfellows when revisionist powers seek to undo the status quo. And they can do a lot of collective damage despite their differences

CRUMBLING ORDER

The post–World War II liberal order was a direct response to the horrors of the interwar period. The United States and its allies looked back on the economic depression and international aggression of the 1920s and 1930s and located the cause in beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism, currency manipulation, and violent quests for resources—for example, leading to the aggressive behavior by Imperial Japan in the Pacific. The absence of the United States as a kind of offshore mediator also contributed to the breakdown of order. The one effort to build a moderating institution after World War I, the League of Nations, proved to be a pathetic disgrace, covering aggression rather than confronting it. Asian and European powers, left to their own devices, fell into catastrophic conflict.

After World War II, the United States and its allies built an economic order that was no longer zero-sum. At the Bretton Woods conference, they laid the groundwork for the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (the predecessor of the World Trade Organization), which together promoted the free movement of goods and services and stimulated international economic growth. For the most part, it was a wildly successful strategy. Global GDP grew and grew, surpassing the $100 trillion mark in 2022.

The companion to this “economic commons” was a “security commons” that was also led by the United States. Washington committed to the defense of Europe through NATO’s Article 5, which, after the Soviet Union’s successful nuclear test in 1949, essentially meant pledging to trade New York for London or Washington for Bonn. A similar U.S. commitment to Japan allowed that country to replace the legacy of its hated imperial military with self-defense forces and a “peace constitution,” easing relations with its neighbors. By 1953, South Korea also had a U.S. security guarantee, ensuring peace on the Korean Peninsula. As the United Kingdom and France stepped back from the Middle East after the 1956 Suez crisis, the United States became the guarantor of freedom of navigation in the region and, in time, its major stabilizing force.

Today’s international system is not yet a throwback to the early twentieth century. The death of globalization is often overstated, but the rush to pursue onshoring, near-shoring, and “friend shoring,” largely in reaction to China, does portend a weakening of integration. The United States has been largely absent from negotiations on trade for almost a decade now. It’s hard to recall the last time that an American politician gave a spirited defense of free trade. The new consensus raises the question: Can the aspiration for the freer movement of goods and services survive the United States’ absence from the game?

Globalization will continue in some form. But the sense that it is a positive force has lost steam. Consider the way countries acted in response to 9/11 versus how they acted in response to the pandemic. After 9/11, the world united in tackling terrorism, a problem that almost every country was experiencing in some form. Within a few weeks of the attack, the UN Security Council unanimously passed a resolution allowing the tracking of terrorist financing across borders. Countries quickly harmonized their airport security standards. The United States soon joined with other countries to create the Proliferation Security Initiative, a forum for sharing information on suspicious cargo that would grow to include over 100 member states. Fast-forward to 2020, and the world saw the revenge of the sovereign state. International institutions were compromised, the chief example being the World Health Organization, which had grown too close to China. Travel restrictions, bans on the export of protective gear, and claims on vaccines complicated the road to recovery.

With the growing chasm between the United States and its allies on one side and China and Russia on the other, it is hard to imagine this trend reversing. Economic integration, which after the collapse of the Soviet Union was thought to be a common project for growth and peace, has given way to a zero-sum quest for territory, markets, and innovation. Still, one would hope that humankind has learned from the disastrous consequences of protectionism and isolationism in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. So how can it avoid a repeat of history?

ANOTHER TWILIGHT STRUGGLE

The United States might take the advice that the diplomat George Kennan gave in his famous “Long Telegram” of 1946. Kennan advised Washington to deny the Soviet Union the easy course of external expansion until it was forced to deal with its own internal contradictions. This was prescient, as four decades later, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s attempts to reform a fundamentally rotten system wound up collapsing it instead.

Today, Russia’s internal contradictions are obvious. Putin has undone 30-plus years of Russian integration into the international economy and relies on a network of opportunistic states that throw crumbs his way to sustain his regime. No one knows how long this shell of Russian greatness can survive, but it can do a lot of harm before it cracks. Resisting and deterring Russian military aggression is essential until it does.

Putin counts on a cowed and poorly informed population, and his regime indoctrinates young people in ways that are reminiscent of the Hitler Youth. The announcement this June that Russian children will attend summer camps in North Korea, of all places, is stunning. Russians, once able to travel and study abroad, now face a different future. They must make sacrifices, Putin tells them, in the service of “Mother Russia.”

Yet Russia’s human potential has always been great, despite what often seems like a deliberate plot by its leaders to destroy it. It is incumbent on the United States, Europe, and others to keep some connection to the Russian people. Russians should be allowed, when possible, to study and work abroad. Efforts, open and covert, should be made to pierce Putin’s propaganda, particularly in the cities, where he is neither trusted nor liked. Finally, the Russian opposition cannot be abandoned. The Baltic states house much of the organization built by the activist Alexei Navalny, who died in a Siberian prison in February. He was one of the few leaders who had a real following in much of Russia. His death cannot be the end of his cause.

Isolation has never been the answer to the United States’ security or prosperity.

The case of Solidarity, the Polish trade union, provides an important lesson in how to nurture antiauthoritarian movements. When Poland’s Soviet-aligned regime declared martial law in 1981, Solidarity’s leader, Lech Walesa, went underground with his organization. The group was sustained by an odd troika: the Reagan administration’s CIA, the AFL-CIO, and the Vatican (and its Polish-born pope, John Paul II). Solidarity received relatively simple support from abroad, such as cash and printing presses. But when a political opening came in 1989, Walesa and company were ready to step in and lead a relatively smooth transition to democracy. The main lesson is that determined efforts can sustain opposition movements, as hard as that might be in Putin’s Russia.

China’s future is by no means as bleak as Russia’s. Yet China, too, has internal contradictions. The country is experiencing a rapid demographic inversion rarely seen outside of war. Births have declined by more than 50 percent since 2016, such that the total fertility rate is approaching 1.0. The one-child policy, put in place in 1979 and brutally enforced for decades, was the kind of mistake that only an authoritarian regime could have made, and now, millions of Chinese men don’t have mates. Since the policy ended in 2016, the state has tried to browbeat women into having children, turning women’s rights into a crusade for childbearing—yet more evidence of the panic in Beijing.

Another contradiction stems from the uneasy coexistence of capitalism and authoritarian communism. Xi has turned out to be a true Marxist. China’s golden age of private sector–led growth has slowed in large part because of the Chinese Communist Party’s anxiety about alternative sources of power. China used to lead the world in online education startups, but in 2021, the government cracked down on them because it could not reliably monitor their content. A once thriving entrepreneurial culture has withered away. China’s aggressive behavior toward foreigners has exposed other contradictions. Xi knows that China needs foreign direct investment, and he courts corporate leaders from across the world. But then, a Western firm’s offices are raided or one of its Chinese employees is detained, and, not surprisingly, a trust deficit grows between Beijing and foreign investors.

China is also suffering a trust deficit with its youth. Young Chinese citizens may be proud of their country, but a 20 percent youth unemployment rate has undermined their optimism for the future. Xi’s heavy-handed propagation of “Xi Jinping Thought” turns them off. This has led them to adopt an attitude of what is known colloquially as “lying flat,” a passive-aggressive stance of going along to get along while harboring no loyalty or enthusiasm for the regime. Now is thus not the time to isolate Chinese youth but the time to welcome them to study in the United States. As Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China, has noted, a regime that goes out of its way to intimidate its citizens to discourage them from engaging with Americans is not a confident regime. Indeed, it is a signal for the United States to keep pushing for connections to the Chinese people.

Meanwhile, Washington will need to maintain economic pressure on the revisionist powers. It should continue isolating Russia, with an eye toward arresting Beijing’s creeping support for the Kremlin. But it should refrain from imposing blunt sanctions against China, since they would be ineffective and counterproductive, crippling the U.S. economy in the process. Targeted sanctions, by contrast, may slow Beijing’s military and technological progress, at least for a while. Iran is much more vulnerable. Never again should Washington unfreeze Iranian assets, as the Biden administration did as part of a deal to release five imprisoned Americans. Efforts to find moderates among Iran’s theocrats are doomed to failure and serve only to allow the mullahs to escape the contradictions of their unpopular, aggressive, and incompetent regime.

WHAT IT TAKES

This strategy will require investment. The United States needs to maintain the defense capabilities sufficient to deny China, Russia, and Iran their strategic goals. The war in Ukraine has revealed weaknesses in the U.S. defense industrial base that must be remedied. Critical reforms need to be made to the defense budgeting process, which is inadequate to this task. Congress must strive to enhance the Defense Department’s long-term strategic planning process, as well as its ability to adapt to evolving threats. The Pentagon should also work with Congress to gain greater efficiencies from the amount it already spends. Costs can be reduced in part by speeding up the Pentagon’s slow procurement and acquisition processes so that the military can better harness the remarkable technology coming out of the private sector. Beyond military capabilities, the United States must rebuild the other elements of its diplomatic toolkit—such as information operations—that have eroded since the Cold War.

The United States and other democracies must win the technological arms race, since in the future, transformative technologies will be the most important source of national power. The debate about the balance between regulation and innovation is just beginning. But while the possible downsides should be acknowledged, ultimately it is more important to unleash these technologies’ potential for societal good and national security. Chinese progress can be slowed but not stopped, and the United States will have to run fast and hard to win this race. Democracies will investigate these technologies, call congressional hearings about them, and debate their impact openly. Authoritarians will not. For this reason, among many others, authoritarians must not triumph.

The good news is that given the behavior of China and Russia, the United States’ allies are ready to contribute to the common defense. Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia, the Philippines, and Japan, recognize the threat and appear committed to addressing it. Relations between Japan and South Korea are better than ever. Moscow’s recent agreements with Pyongyang have alarmed Seoul and should deepen its cooperation with democratic allies. India, through its membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—also known as the Quad, the strategic partnership that also includes Australia, Japan, and the United States—is cooperating closely with the U.S. military and emerging as a pivotal power in the Indo-Pacific. Vietnam, too, appears willing to contribute, given its own strategic concerns with China. The challenge will be to turn the ambitions of U.S. partners into sustained commitment once the costs of enhanced defense capabilities become clear.

In Europe, the war in Ukraine has mobilized NATO in ways unimaginable a few years ago. The addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO’s Arctic flank brings real military capability and helps secure the Baltic states. The question of postwar security arrangements for Ukraine hangs over the continent at this moment. The most straightforward answer would be to admit Ukraine to NATO and simultaneously to the European Union. Both institutions have accession processes that would take some time. The key point is this: Moscow needs to know that the alliance does not intend to leave a vacuum in Europe.

The United States also needs a strategy for dealing with the nonaligned states of the global South. These countries will insist on strategic flexibility, and Washington should resist the urge to issue loyalty tests. Rather, it should develop policies that address their concerns. Above all, the United States needs a meaningful alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s massive global infrastructure program. The BRI is often depicted as helping China win hearts and minds, but in reality it is not winning anything. Recipients are growing frustrated with the corruption, poor safety and labor standards, and fiscal unsustainability associated with its projects. The aid that the United States, Europe, Japan, and others offer is small by comparison, but unlike Chinese aid, it can attract significant foreign direct investment from the private sector, thus dwarfing the amount provided by the BRI. But you can’t beat something with nothing. A U.S. strategy that shows no interest in a region until China shows up is not going to succeed. Washington needs to demonstrate sustained engagement with countries in the global South on the issues they care about—namely, economic development, security, and climate change.

WHICH WAY, AMERICA?

The pre–World War II era was defined not only by great-power conflict and a weak international order but also by a rising tide of populism and isolationism. So is the current era. The main question hanging over the international system today is, Where does America stand?

The biggest difference between the first half of the twentieth century and the second half was the fact of Washington’s sustained and purposeful global engagement. After World War II, the United States was a confident country, with a baby boom, a growing middle class, and unbridled optimism about the future. The struggle against communism provided bipartisan unity, even if there were sometimes disagreements over specific policies. Most agreed with President John F. Kennedy that their country was willing to “pay any price, bear any burden” in the defense of freedom.

The United States is a different country now—exhausted by eight decades of international leadership, some of it successful and appreciated, and some of it dismissed as failure. The American people are different, too—less confident in their institutions and in the viability of the American dream. Years of divisive rhetoric, Internet echo chambers, and, even among the best-educated youth, ignorance of the complexity of history have left Americans with a tattered sense of shared values. For the latter problem, elite cultural institutions bear much of the blame. They have rewarded those who tear down the United States and ridiculed those who extol its virtues. To address Americans’ lack of faith in their institutions and in one another, schools and colleges must change their curricula to offer a more balanced view of U.S. history. And instead of creating a climate that reinforces one’s existing opinions, these and other institutions should encourage a healthy debate in which competing ideas are encouraged.

That said, great-power DNA is still very much in the American genome. Americans carry two contradictory thoughts simultaneously. One side of the brain looks at the world and thinks that the United States has done enough, saying, “It is someone else’s turn.” The other side looks abroad and sees a large country trying to extinguish a smaller one, children choking on nerve gas, or a terrorist group beheading a journalist and says, “We must act.” The president can appeal to either side.

The new Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse—populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism—tend to ride together, and they are challenging the political center. Only the United States can counter their advance and resist the temptation to go back to the future. But generating support for an internationalist foreign policy requires a president to paint a vivid picture of what that world would be like without an active United States. In such a world, an emboldened Putin and Xi, having defeated Ukraine, would move on to their next conquest. Iran would celebrate the United States’ withdrawal from the Middle East and sustain its illegitimate regime by external conquest through its proxies. Hamas and Hezbollah would launch more wars, and hopes that Gulf Arab states would normalize relations with Israel would be dashed. The international economy would be weaker, sapping U.S. growth. International waters would be contested, with piracy and other incidents at sea stalling the movement of goods. American leaders should remind the public that a reluctant United States has repeatedly been drawn into conflict—in 1917, 1941, and 2001. Isolation has never been the answer to the country’s security or prosperity.

Then, a leader must say that the United States is well positioned to design a different future. The country’s endlessly creative private sector is capable of continuous innovation. The United States has an unparalleled and secure energy bounty from Canada to Mexico that can sustain it through a reasonable energy transition over the many years it will take. It has more allies than any great power in history and good friends, as well. People around the world seeking a better life still dream of becoming Americans. If the United States can summon the will to deal with its immigration puzzle, it will not suffer the demographic calamity that faces most of the developed world.

The United States’ global involvement will not look exactly as it has for the last 80 years. Washington is likely to choose its engagements more carefully. If deterrence is strong, that may be enough. Allies will have to bear more of the cost of defending themselves. Trade agreements will be less ambitious and global but more regional and selective.

Internationalists must admit that they had a blind spot for those Americans, such as the unemployed coal miner and steelworker, who lost out as good jobs fled abroad. And the forgotten did not take kindly to the argument that they should shut up and be happy with cheap Chinese goods. This time, there can be no more platitudes about the advantages of globalization for all. There must be a real effort to give people meaningful education, skills, and job training. The task is even more urgent since technological progress will severely punish those who cannot keep up.

Those who argue for engagement will need to reframe what it means. The 80 years of U.S. internationalism is another analogy that doesn’t perfectly fit the circumstances of today. Still, if the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries taught Americans anything, it is this: other great powers don’t mind their own business. Instead, they seek to shape the global order. The future will be determined by the alliance of democratic, free-market states or it will be determined by the revisionist powers, harking back to a day of territorial conquest abroad and authoritarian practices at home. There is simply no other option.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Natural gas: the fuel of war…

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The scramble for natural gas resources has intensified markedly between Asia and Europe following Russia's incursion into Ukraine in February 2022. This military conflict has upended European gas markets and propelled energy prices to unprecedented levels. The situation has exacerbated geopolitical strains and underscored the critical importance of energy independence for both continents.

In response, there has been a profound shift in the global natural gas trade, with Europe emerging as a key importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), notably from the United States.  The development has sent ripples through the established Latin American markets and the burgeoning Asian economies, altering global energy supply and demand balance.

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Why does life bother me so much?

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For many, the enchanting figure of Alain Fabien Maurice Marcel Delon lingers in their minds. Born on November 8, 1935, in the affluent suburb of Sceaux, France, just a stone's throw from Paris, Delon was nothing short of a phenomenon. "Le Magnifique" had a magnetic charm that left both men and women spellbound, their hearts racing in pursuit of his striking allure. Ordinary folks would marvel, exclaiming, "What luck! What a wonder!"

Yet, beneath the surface of this iconic actor and heartthrob lay a man burdened by the weight of his own fame. The relentless adoration from fans spiralled him into a deep melancholy, leading him to contemplate the unthinkable as he navigated the tumultuous waters of his existence. In a twist of fate, he turned away from his fervent admirers, showing his affection to the street animals—dogs, cats, or even the forsaken elephants trapped in cruel circuses.

Despite seemingly having it all, Le Magnifique was a labyrinth of contradictions, often displaying a prickly demeanour. His complex nature was further complicated by his homophobic views and ultra-right beliefs, which sparked controversy and intrigue alike.

The brilliant Pilar Eyre, a Spanish writer, journalist, blogger, and YouTuber, has a tale that encapsulates the essence of this enigmatic actor. In a revealing interview in Barcelona in 1996, Delon shared stories of his escapades, offering a glimpse into the multifaceted personality that was both captivating and confounding.

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Today's headlines …

(NYT) Mexico’s President Bet Big on Oil. His Successor Will Be Stuck With the Tab

Mexico’s next leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, is a climate scientist who has signaled a clean energy pivot. But a huge wager on fossil fuels by her political mentor stands in her way.

Why Mpox Vaccines Aren’t Flowing to Africans in Desperate Need

Drugmakers have supplies ready to ship that are necessary to stop a potential pandemic. But W.H.O. regulations have slowed access.

(POLITICO EU) WHO calls for $135M to combat mpox outbreak

The World Health Organization has warned that more money will be needed in future.

(EL País) Islamic State claims three dead in attack in Germany

The terrorist group claims that the stabbing was "in revenge for the Muslims in Palestine and everywhere". Police arrest a 15-year-old boy in connection with events at a festival.

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Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock

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Natural gas prices significantly dropped in the first quarter of 2024, attributed to a mild winter.  However, a rebound occurred by mid-June, with natural gas prices in the United States surging by 80% and European prices by 25% compared to March's average.  By early August, Spain's electricity prices soared to €150 per megawatt-hour, spreading concern.

The struggle for natural gas resources between Asia and Europe has intensified due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  Russia's military incursion has significantly disrupted European gas markets, substantially increasing energy costs.  The conflict has brought geopolitical tensions to the forefront and underscored the critical importance of energy security for both regions.

This conflict has reoriented global natural gas flows, the most significant being the shift from the United States to Europe, which has emerged as a primary importer of liquefied natural gas.  It has also affected the traditional Latin American and burgeoning Asian markets.

At this point, it is worth pausing to reflect on this powerful natural element, which requires unusual freezing at a temperature of -160º Celsius to complete its remarkable transformation from gas to liquid, enabling its transportation.  The fuel sparks economic battles and bloody wars and, regardless of one's views on it, remains an indisputable pillar of modern existence.

The current natural gas prices at the Henry Hub Spot are significantly lower than their historical maxima.  For instance, the price reached US$18.92 in December 2000, reached US$18.54 in February 2003, peaked at US$23.45 in September 2005, and rose to US$18.93 in June 2008.  As of August 2022, the price is US$9.47 per million British thermal units (MBTUs).

A second echo is expected. The recent Ukrainian military incursion into Russian territory was deemed absolutely necessary to secure the natural gas supplying Europe, marking a significant development.   This strategic action carries major implications for regional energy dynamics, leading to a geopolitical transformation of the increasingly uncertain global natural gas market.

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Ms Pilar Eyre, alongside the legendary Mr Alain Delon, shares an unbreakable bond with his one true love, his beloved dog Loubo.  Germán & Co. brings this masterpiece to life!

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Happy Sabbath!  We hope you're enjoying this day filled with peace and joy.  It's a time for relaxation, reflection, and recharging, surrounded by your loved ones.  May your day be enriched with warmth and meaningful moments that forge lasting memories.  

For many, the memories of Alain Fabien Maurice Marcel Delon persist.  Delon was born on November 8, 1935, in Sceaux, France, a wealthy suburb of Paris.  "Le Magnifique" captivated both men and women who pursued him fervently and ardently, entranced by his exceptional beauty.  Ordinary people would exclaim, "What fortune!  What marvel!"  

Yet, this man, an actor and sex symbol who did not regard himself as such, was troubled by their incessant adoration, which caused him colossal depression.  Such dissatisfaction with life, which came to ask for euthanasia in the twilight of his torrid journey through life.  In an ironic twist, he shunned his ardent admirers, opting to bestow his love upon the street animals—whether they be dogs, cats, or even the neglected elephants of cruel circuses.  

Le Magnifique, perhaps for possessing everything, was a complex man with an uncomfortable and disagreeable character.  He was also known for his homophobic tendencies and ultra-right views.  His complexity, which often led to controversy, is a significant part of his character. 

Perhaps Pilar Eyre, a wise and wonderful Spanish writer, journalist, blogger, and YouTuber now, has an anecdote that perfectly describes the personality of the actor.  Delon told of his adventures in an interview he gave her in Barcelona in 1996. 

The portrayal of the sincere, unfiltered, and timely character of the legendary actor, who stands as a titan in the annals of global cinema, unveils the myriads of struggles that Delon battled.  This was all because he was not just a star but the epitome of charm and allure during a remarkable era in film history. 

Yet, amidst all this turmoil, a deep well of bitterness and sorrow brewed within him regarding his interactions with his kin and outsiders.  Overwhelmed by the weight of existence and the allure of his charm, he found a moment of twisted solace.  He uttered a most peculiar compliment to the enchanting Ms Eyre: —-"How fortunate you are to be devoid of beauty..." 

Well, Ms Eyre has bravely weathered Mr Delon's fiery praise, while the actor now finds himself in the twilight of his days, surrounded by his 45 beloved canine companions.  But the enigmatic actor departed this world, leaving behind an unfulfilled desire that stirred quite the debate.  Mr Delon's family turned down his heartfelt plea to have his beloved dog, Loubo, put to sleep and laid to rest by his side, especially after the uproar it sparked across France.  In a candid chat with Paris Match back in 2018, he shared the poignant bond he had with Loubo, whom he cherished "like a child" during the dog's twilight years.  Indeed, every mind is a mysterious universe, filled with unspoken wishes and untold stories...

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Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles.  To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials.  But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611.  Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link.  Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey!  Your generous support is truly invaluable to us!  It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact.  Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1827451558898102742

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

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Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

“When I joined in 2011, AES was in almost 30 countries and had development activities in several more. We decided that we were going to focus on fewer markets but focus more intensively on them.  This is because we wanted to have a critical presence in those countries. Today, we are in 12 countries as an operator, but we are doing much more in those countries than we were previously. We are now one of the five largest renewable developers in the world outside China, and we are leaders in several technologies. 

In addition to expanding our geographic footprint, we are also focused on improving our credit rating and our risk profile. We tackled risk across the board because there are many aspects to risk.  In addition to the geographies, it involves the type of technology you have, and commodity exposures because we are mostly a big generator. We are known as independent power producers, so we may be exposed to technology and commodity changes. We made sure that in areas we could not hedge it financially, we would bring in the technology to decrease that risk. In Panama, we had almost 800 megawatts of hydro, but we were extremely dependent on the weather.  Our business is contracted generation, so we had to supply energy at $80 a megawatt-hour to our clients. In years of drought, we would have to buy in the market.  For example, there was a severe drought in Panama in 2014, and we lost $100 million as a result. We were buying energy at $300 a megawatt-hour to supply a contract at $80 per hour. Our first move was to float in a barge, and that produced thermal energy.  However, it is relatively expensive and relatively small.  We built an LNG regasification terminal and storage facility in Panama and an efficient combined-cycle plant. While the drought was just a bad this year, our losses are going to be marginal. This is because the price of energy is essentially capped at $120 a megawatt-hour.  This is not only good for us, but it is great for Panama.  The U.S. is going to be a big producer of natural gas, and it has sufficient liquefaction facilities.  This has greatly helped countries in this area of the world. For example, by bringing in cheap LNG to the Dominican Republic, the country typically saves about half a billion dollars in its annual import bill. This is a much more stable price than oil prices.  This allows the countries to develop industries such as tourism and services, so it is a win-win. Bringing in these new technologies has been extremely exciting…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterhigh/2019/12/09/how-the-ceo-of-a-major-energy-producer-is-reducing-his-companys-reliance-on-coal/

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The creativity and dedication of Germán and his team to each project is evident in their artistic work.

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Natural gas prices significantly dropped in the first quarter of 2024, attributed to a mild winter.  However, a rebound occurred by mid-June, with natural gas prices in the United States surging by 80% and European prices by 25% compared to March's average.  By early August, Spain's electricity prices soared to €150 per megawatt-hour, spreading concern.

The struggle for natural gas resources between Asia and Europe has intensified due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.  Russia's military incursion has significantly disrupted European gas markets, substantially increasing energy costs.  The conflict has brought geopolitical tensions to the forefront and underscored the critical importance of energy security for both regions.

This conflict has reoriented global natural gas flows, the most significant being the shift from the United States to Europe, which has emerged as a primary importer of liquefied natural gas.  It has also affected the traditional Latin American and burgeoning Asian markets.

At this point, it is worth pausing to reflect on this powerful natural element, which requires unusual freezing at a temperature of -160º Celsius to complete its remarkable transformation from gas to liquid, enabling its transportation.  The fuel sparks economic battles and bloody wars and, regardless of one's views on it, remains an indisputable pillar of modern existence.

The current natural gas prices at the Henry Hub Spot are significantly lower than their historical maxima.  For instance, the price reached US$18.92 in December 2000, reached US$18.54 in February 2003, peaked at US$23.45 in September 2005, and rose to US$18.93 in June 2008.  As of August 2022, the price is US$9.47 per million British thermal units (MBTUs).

A second echo is expected. The recent Ukrainian military incursion into Russian territory was deemed absolutely necessary to secure the natural gas supplying Europe, marking a significant development.   This strategic action carries major implications for regional energy dynamics, leading to a geopolitical transformation of the increasingly uncertain global natural gas market.

Andriy Prokip is an energy specialist at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv and a senior associate at the Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C. Andreas Umland serves as a senior expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv and is a researcher at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs in Stockholm. Together, they wrote an article for the Harvard International Review titled "The Forgotten Potential of Ukraine's Energy Reserves," published on October 10, 2020, just 14 months before Russia invaded Ukraine. The natural gas market in Eurasia is comprehensively documented in this exceptional piece, available in this edition.

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"The Forgotten Potential of Ukraine's Energy Reserves"

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The European energy supply has increasingly become a geopolitical issue in recent years. It is closely linked to security concerns and competition between gas transportation routes, and the ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia. In late 2019, Kyiv secured a new and favorable transit agreement with Moscow for the transportation of Siberian gas to the European Union. The agreement was partly a response to new U.S. sanctions targeting Russia's offshore pipeline projects.

The five-year agreement ensures the ongoing utilization of a portion of Ukraine's extensive gas transportation system. If Gazprom's Nord Stream II pipeline through the Baltic Sea does not proceed, the Ukrainian gas transportation system will have potential for continued use and revenue generation.

However, these prominent confrontations and negotiations regarding various routes for Russian gas supply to the European Union have overshadowed the potential of Ukraine's gas and oil reserves, as well as its associated storage facilities. The significant natural resources within Ukraine's energy sector remain largely unexplored and underutilized, despite the fact that their development could stimulate economic growth in both the energy sector and other industries.

Untapped Potential…

Ukraine currently possesses the second-largest natural gas reserves in Europe, excluding Russia's reserves in Asia. As of late 2019, the known reserves in Ukraine totaled trillion cubic meters of natural gas, second only ranking just behind resources of 1.53 trillion cubic meters. This abundance, if effectively harnessed, of these wealth reserves, if reserves Ukraine's transform sector and significantly contribute, plays a crucial role in enhancing independence and the economy and fostering

Despite this optimistic situation, Ukraine remains significantly reliant on gas imports. When the USSR initiated large-scale gas extraction in Western Siberia during the 1970s, much of the relevant expertise and capacity in Soviet gas exploration and production was transferred from the Ukrainian Soviet Republic to the Russian Soviet Republic and several other Eastern European states. Consequently, as a result of this outflow of expertise, Ukraine's remaining gas resources are still underdeveloped, vastly underutilized, and partially unexplored.

Until recently, Ukraine's total average annual consumption was approximately 29.8 billion cubic meters (bcm). Of this entire yearly total approximately 14.3 demand, around imports. bcm was met through imports. Therefore, tapping into its untapped reserves could transform the future its energy consumption.

The resolute development of the already explored and accessible Ukrainian resources could significantly increase gas production. This enhancement would enable the country to fully meet its domestic gas needs and achieve a high degree of energy self-sufficiency. In an optimal scenario, increased production could allow Ukraine to export gas to or through neighboring European countries. This is feasible due to Ukraine's extensive gas transportation system, which provides the necessary infrastructure to deliver substantial quantities of gas to the European Union. With appropriate investments and strategic policy decisions, Ukraine could emerge as a key gas exporter to the EU, offering a reliable alternative to the current dominant suppliers and bolstering its geopolitical position.

According to some estimates, the European Union (E.U.) will import approximately per percent gas it consumes by 2030. In this context, smaller or prospective gas exporters like exporters, such as Ukraine, attractive increasingly appealing in Brussels. With its vast reserves substantial strategic location, Ukraine has the potential to significantly diversify the origins and sources of the European gas supply, thereby strengthening the enhancing negotiating E.U.'s and its own role in the energy market.

Despite the significant potential of Ukraine's energy reserves, there are substantial costs associated with developing the country's capabilities. According to an assessment study by study conducted Ukrainian Institute for the future, a Future, transforming a self-sufficient energy consumer and potential and a would require several investments to totaling billion. Of this amount, about US$3.5 around is needed for developing gas the development of and building pipelines, the construction of billion would have must into oil in and US$2 billion would go will be allocated for

The total investment required to achieve complete energy independence is substantial when compared to Ukraine's relatively modest state budget and GDP. However, this amount is roughly equivalent to the costs of current energy imports over a period of two to three years. Therefore, despite the high absolute cost, it would be recouped relatively quickly.

Moreover, financial investment in Ukraine's energy sector is becoming increasingly attractive. In recent years, Ukraine has gradually reduced distortive government interventions in the gas market, often under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Kyiv has implemented market pricing for households and has ceased providing subsidies to all consumers indiscriminately. This relatively new domestic market, combined with the anticipated recovery of European energy markets following the COVID-19 pandemic, is expected to make financial engagement in Ukrainian gas production and exploration more appealing than in the past. Consequently, the investment climate is likely to continue improving.

The Road Ahead…

Ukraine's gas transportation system will continue to play a vital role in the future of the country's energy sector. Ukraine possesses one of the most well-developed and comprehensive gas transportation infrastructures in the world, facilitating both domestic deliveries and export capabilities. The Ukrainian gas transit system is a legacy of the Soviet energy expansion into Europe, partially resulting from the German Neue Ostpolitik (New Eastern Policy) of the 1970s. For a long many years, the served as corridor primary transferring Soviet transporting Soviet, and later Central Asian gas to gas, European states. The nations. Currently, the utilization capacity is much lower significantly a than it was earlier due ago, primarily the completion of the first Nord Stream pipeline in 2012, the growing introduction increasing adoption energy resources, and the current economic ongoing however, downturn. Nevertheless, and compressor stations are still remain operational significant possess substantial merely delivering Russian or Turkmen gas to the E.U. European Union.

A significant component of Ukraine's multidimensional gas infrastructure is its extensive underground gas storage facilities. Currently, these facilities are only partially utilized, with a total storage capacity exceeding 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas. fully exploited, Ukraine could hypothetically potentially increase its storage capacity by nearly to of 100 bcm of storage space held by European Union (E.U.) hold. states. Consequently, surprise that not surprising consultancy Wood Mackenzie recently suggested that Ukraine holds the indicated to Europe's could play a crucial role in alleviating As result gas storage crisis. COVID-19 pandemic, world gas prices plummeted, but global E.U.'s storage experienced a sharp decline; however, not have enough space lack sufficient capacity the fully capitalize on this about investing address foreign investors' the country adopted some amendments to relevant implemented several directives in late 2019—regulatory modifications that make it 2019. These regulatory changes facilitate foreign firms' access In during the first nine months of 2020, foreign energy firms pumped 7.9 bcm of gas to companies injected storage, several times higher into the volume storage, a volume foreign gas greater in Ukraine amount 2019. the country 2019. Reason: Improved clarity, vocabulary, and technical accuracy while correcting grammatical and punctuation errors.

Hydrogen represents a new frontier for Ukraine's underdeveloped energy sector. Currently, several gas distribution companies are assessing Ukraine's pipeline capabilities to adapt existing infrastructure for the delivery of hydrogen to their customers. The European Union has recognized Ukraine as a priority partner for future collaboration in using hydrogen utilizing enhance the strengthen energy supply and security.

However, another energy source with significant potential in Ukraine is biogas. Currently, the country can produce approximately 10 million cubic meters of biogas annually, a volume roughly equivalent to the amount of natural gas that Ukraine imports each year. Given the growth of Ukraine's agricultural sector, its capacity to produce biogas may increase further. This potential is quite sustainable: blending biogas with hydrogen produces biomethane, an environmentally friendly energy source that is free of carbon dioxide.

Boosting Ukraine's domestic production of natural gas, biogas, hydrogen, and biomethane would not only reduce or potentially eliminate Ukraine's dependence on energy imports but also establish a new and dynamic export-oriented sector within the Ukrainian economy. This initiative would stimulate more robust growth across various other sectors. Simultaneously, the European Union would benefit from diversifying its gas supply sources and gaining a new primary energy partner in its immediate vicinity. Furthermore, such cooperation would strengthen Brussels' economic ties with Kyiv and diminish the need for ongoing Western support for the Ukrainian state. A concerted effort to develop Ukraine's untapped reserves for the production, export, and storage of energy would serve the interests of all parties involved.

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Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock

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Mexico’s President Bet Big on Oil. His Successor Will Be Stuck With the Tab…

Mexico’s next leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, is a climate scientist who has signaled a clean energy pivot. But a huge wager on fossil fuels by her political mentor stands in her way.

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NYT, Simon Romero, a journalist with extensive experience in Latin American affairs, has reported on energy politics from various postings, including Venezuela and Brazil. This article was filed from Mexico City.

On a sweltering day in August, Claudia Sheinbaum appeared with her mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to inaugurate one of the costliest infrastructure projects in Mexico’s history: a $16 billion oil refinery.

The sprawling complex in Mr. López Obrador’s home state, Tabasco, forms the capstone of an energy strategy that he will bequeath to Ms. Sheinbaum, a climate scientist, when she takes the presidency in October.

As countries around the world feverishly turn to clean energy sources, Mexico has placed a colossal bet on fossil fuels, with the costs of that strategy now coming painfully into view.

Mexico’s oil production tumbled to a 45-year low this year, one of the steepest output declines anywhere in the world this century. Blackouts plagued the country after Mr. López Obrador heaped scorn on wind farms that could help satisfy electricity demand. Natural gas imports for the strained grid are soaring, making energy independence an ever more distant dream.

Pemex, the state-controlled oil giant, is now the world’s most indebted oil company after going on a spending spree to build projects. To stave off a default on its nearly $100 billion debt, the company has required multibillion-dollar bailouts using taxpayer money.

The disorder in Mexico’s energy industry lays bare a dilemma that will shape the country’s fortunes — and Ms. Sheinbaum’s presidency — in the years to come. Ms. Sheinbaum, who has a Ph.D. in energy engineering, has signaled that she wants Mexico to pivot to clean energy sources. But the biggest obstacles in her way may be her mentor’s nationalistic energy policies that are fixated on oil — and her reluctance to bump heads with the man who helped put her in office.

“It’s a source of pride to see how Mexican engineers and workers have achieved this feat,” Ms. Sheinbaum said at the refinery’s inauguration.

She barely mentioned her own plans for an energy transition at the event. Instead, Ms. Sheinbaum voiced full-throated support for Mr. López Obrador’s oil-centric policies, calling the refinery, named Olmeca, “majestic,” while blasting previous leaders for exporting Mexico’s oil and opening the energy industry to private investment.

But the refinery, intended to tilt Mexico toward energy self-sufficiency by processing the country’s crude oil into gasoline instead of relying on U.S. refineries, remains far from fully operational, according to the International Energy Agency. Beset by delays and cost overruns, Mr. López Obrador already inaugurated the project once before, in 2022, when it was supposed to start operating in 2023.

Altogether, the Olmeca refinery doubled in cost from its initial $8 billion budget, adding to the financial pressure on Pemex. The company owes financial creditors almost $100 billion, and billions more to service providers that help the company produce oil. Delays in paying these companies led some to halt work this year for Pemex, contributing along with underinvestment in exploration to declining output.

“In one word, it is unsustainable,” Adriana Eraso, a Latin American corporate analyst at Fitch Ratings, said about Pemex’s strain under its debt load.

Neither Ms. Sheinbaum nor Mr. López Obrador responded to requests for comment. Pemex’s leadership also did not respond.

Hints emerged on the campaign trail of Ms. Sheinbaum’s energy plans before she won in a landslide in June. They include building solar plants, pushing Pemex into mining the lithium used in electric vehicle (E.V.) batteries and constructing charging infrastructure for E.V.s.

Ms. Sheinbaum has also proposed a cap on Pemex’s oil production, a change in course that would involve chipping away at one of modern Mexico’s foundational myths, dating to the country’s 1938 nationalization of its oil resources: that Mexico is an oil power, with oil at the core of the economy.

“When I talk to people in my social circle, they tend to believe Mexico continues to be an important oil-producing country,” said Adrián Duhalt, an energy expert at Rice University, citing relatives and friends who work at or have retired from Pemex. “That’s no longer the case when you look at the numbers.”

In the early decades of the 20th century, Mexico was the world’s largest oil exporter. But the country’s crude oil production plunged from 3.2 million barrels a day at the start of this century to about 1.5 million, largely reflecting underinvestment in exploration. While Mexico still exports some crude oil, the country must import everything from natural gas and diesel to jet fuel.

As a result, Mexico’s clout in global energy markets has dwindled as other countries in the Americas — the United States, Guyana and Brazil — rise in prominence. Mexico’s crude oil output is now dwarfed by that of the state of New Mexico, which alone produces two million barrels a day with a population about one-sixtieth the size of Mexico’s.

And yet, schoolchildren still learn about the nationalization of oil in textbooks. Monuments celebrate state control of the oil industry, and polls show broad resistance to any hint of privatizing Pemex. A national holiday on March 18 commemorates the day in 1938 when a leftist president took control of foreign-owned oil assets.

Mr. López Obrador adroitly embraced oil nationalism upon taking office in late 2018, casting attempts by the previous government to open the energy industry to meaningful foreign investment as a sellout.

Prioritizing fossil fuels, he publicly mocked wind turbines after his government canceled auctions for solar projects. His supporters point out political reasons for making such a huge bet on oil.

Octavio Romero, Pemex’s chief executive, contends that Mexico had to pursue costly refinery projects for national security reasons because of the country’s reliance on imports of refined fuels from the United States.

“What happens if for some reason, political or natural disaster-related, the ports for importing gasoline are closed?” Mr. Romero told reporters in April.

Still, the costs of propping up Pemex are climbing. Altogether, Mexican authorities have granted Pemex the staggering amount of at least $70 billion in relief in the form of capital injections and tax breaks since 2019, reflecting how Pemex has gone from providing the bulk of government revenues to requiring repeated bailouts.

Pemex, for its part, remains known for retaining privileges like its own country clubs, hospitals and schools. Some executives enjoy perks like enviable pensions and tuition reimbursement at private universities for their children.

Some argue that the government should withdraw its support for Pemex and let it default, contending that at the moment, the country’s relatively resilient economy could absorb the aftershocks.

Damian Fraser, a former country manager in Mexico for the Swiss banking giant UBS, said that if the authorities did not act now, a default by Pemex down the road could unleash economic chaos by raising borrowing costs for a constellation of companies in a country that has eclipsed China as the largest trading partner of the United States.

“If there is ever a time to let bondholders take a hit on Pemex, this might be it,” said Mr. Fraser, who now runs Miranda Partners, which advises companies on doing business in Mexico. “The government is mainly bailing out oil workers and Wall Street at the cost of expanding Mexico’s social programs.”

But for Ms. Sheinbaum — or any Mexican leader for that matter — withdrawing support for Pemex could also be extremely unpopular. So far, she has made it clear that she has no plans to let Pemex default, seeking instead to refinance Pemex’s debt in hopes of freeing up resources to shift toward clean energy sources.

Ms. Sheinbaum laid out some of her plans on March 18, the 86th anniversary of Mexico’s oil expropriation, framing them as a way to bolster Pemex, keep imported energy at a minimum and avoid increasing energy prices beyond inflation.

She said she would cap Pemex’s oil production at 1.8 million barrels a day, not far from what it is now producing, as a way of “decoupling” energy consumption from economic growth by focusing on clean energy and improvements in energy efficiency.

“The growth in demand must be absorbed by renewable energy sources,” Ms. Sheinbaum said.

Still, specifics remain sparse as to how Ms. Sheinbaum would carry out such a shift, especially at a time when her financial maneuvering room will be limited. Another legacy from Mr. López Obrador will be a budget deficit nearing 6 percent of gross domestic product, the largest shortfall in the past 24 years. Pemex’s debt alone stands at about an additional 6 percent of G.D.P.

The resource nationalism imbuing Mexican politics also raises questions as to how far Ms. Sheinbaum will be able to go in a country where oil remains central to national identity.

“People can’t really rally around lithium like they can around oil,” said Lisa Breglia, a scholar at George Mason University who specializes on Mexico’s oil industry. “Down to Mexico’s last drop of oil, people will still take to the streets.”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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The Influence of Nazi "Salon Kitty" on Modern Espionage and Political Vulnerabilities…

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The fierce geopolitical disputes over the highly coveted "Tellurium" are known as "Metallum Complicatum."

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Tellurium crucial role in advancing renewable energy

As the effects of climate change intensify, the need for sustainable energy solutions has significantly increased, creating a growing demand for renewable and eco-friendly energy sources.  Consequently, tellurium, a rare, often underestimated element, is becoming increasingly important in driving innovation in sustainable energy.  A metalloid found in scarce amounts in the Earth's crust, tellurium's unique properties make it highly valuable for various industrial applications.  Its most significant impact is on sustainable energy technologies, which are crucial for turning the vision of renewable energy into tangible progress.

Unlocking the Potential of Tellurium in Solar Photovoltaic Cells

Tellurium is essential for improving the efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, particularly in cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film solar cells.  These cells are valued for their cost-effectiveness and superior performance, especially in low-light conditions.  By harnessing tellurium's properties, CdTe solar cells are solid alternatives to traditional silicon-based cells, helping promote the broader adoption of solar energy.

Enhancing Energy Storage Solutions

Energy storage is crucial to a sustainable energy ecosystem, and tellurium plays a significant role in this field.  Batteries using tellurium-based materials show potential for substantial improvements in energy storage systems.  Because these materials can enhance battery efficiency, prolong lifespan, and increase storage capacity, they are essential for integrating renewable energy sources and stabilizing the power grid.

Advancements in Thermoelectric Devices

Tellurium's impressive thermoelectric properties are producing advancements in thermoelectric devices.  These devices can convert waste heat into electrical energy, offering significant potential for industries that produce large amounts of heat.  By harnessing tellurium's abilities, researchers and engineers are creating more efficient and eco-friendly systems for waste heat recovery, contributing to the sustainable energy movement.  

In summary, in the global effort to combat climate change and transition to sustainable energy, tellurium has emerged as a crucial element driving innovation in sustainable energy technologies.  Its significant role in improving solar cell efficiency, advancing energy storage solutions, and enabling efficient waste heat recovery has propelled the renewable energy sector to new heights.  Tellurium has valuable potential in the pursuit of sustainability, empowering humanity to tap into renewable energy's vast potential and adopt a more eco-friendly and conscientious approach to energy usage.

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Inside Salon Kitty…

The newly reconstructed Salon Kitty, emerging from the remnants of its original structure, serves as a tribute to its historical significance in the aftermath of World War II. Ullstein's picture. Source: Media

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It is fascinating to consider that the concept of clandestine technology espionage, possibly developed by the Nazis, may have inspired the creation of Pegasus Software. The spyware, developed by an Israeli cyber-arms firm and released in 2011, is notorious for targeting devices that exploit political vulnerabilities.

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Located in an affluent Berlin neighbourhood, Salon Kitty started as a conventional brothel in the early 1930s.  However, during World War II, it was converted into a sophisticated espionage centre the Nazis used to gather intelligence from foreign visitors and to identify disloyal Germans.  Katharina Zammit, also known as Kitty Schmidt, was Salon Kitty's proprietor.  Attempting to escape Germany in 1938, she was apprehended at the Dutch border and brought before Walter Schellenberg, a member of the Nazi intelligence organization, the Sicherheitsdienst (SD).  Schellenberg and SS General Reinhard Heydrich gave Schmidt a choice: collaborate or be sent to a concentration camp.  The Nazis let Schmidt continue Salon Kitty operating so long as she employed 20 additional prostitutes selected for Nazi clientele and allowed concealed microphones to be installed across the premises, together with a surveillance room in the cellar.

Walter Schellenberg (left) and Reinhard Heydrich, Wikimedia Commons.

To recruit the additional prostitutes, Schellenberg distributed a document to Nazi administrative offices in Berlin, searching for intelligent, patriotic, multilingual women.  Once the 20 women had been selected for Salon Kitty's specialized group, operations commenced at the beginning of 1940.  While these women were not informed about the microphones, they were trained to recognize military uniforms.  They were tasked with accompanying high-ranking officials and foreign diplomats to bedrooms and providing relaxation, serving alcohol, and engaging in intimate encounters.  Using the concealed microphones, a Nazi officer in the basement would listen in and record all activities.  Using these methods, Nazi intelligence monitored Nazis suspected of disloyalty.   

Nevertheless, reports of such encounters are now rare.  Sources claim that the son-in-law and foreign minister of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini visited and were recorded joking about Hitler, referring to him as a little clown.  The operation yielded around 25,000 recordings, but most were discarded, as they were useless. The operation ceased in July 1942 when a British air raid demolished Salon Kitty.  By that time, the (SD) had abandoned the project, deeming it unproductive. Nonetheless, intelligence gathered from Salon Kitty contributed to thwarting a potential Spanish takeover of Gibraltar.  

Madam Schmidt later reestablished Salon Kitty at a new location, operating it as a traditional brothel until her death in 1954 at the age of 72.

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Artistic creations by Germán & Co represent a fusion of distinct talents and viewpoints, culminating in the production of original and enthralling works of art...

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Happy Wednesday and best wishes for the health of you and your loved ones...

Firstly, we apologize for the delay in sending Saturday's reflections. The notes, which delve into the geopolitical situation sparking conflicts across all five continents, from territorial disputes to wars over fuels and rare earth elements, have demanded significant time.

Before we proceed, it's crucial to address the events that transpired this past Sunday, July 28, in Venezuela.  Throughout history, oppressed societies have found immense gratification in the toppling of a dictator's statue when they come to the limit.  We witnessed this when the Poles took down Lenin's statue in 1990 and when the Iraqis toppled Saddam Hussein's statue in 2003.  Overthrowing a despot's statue carries powerful symbolism and leaves an indelible mark on history.  On Sunday night, the world witnessed the toppling of six statues in the land of Rómulo Gallegos, a significant event not seen in Latin America for many decades.  This surge of resistance unequivocally signals that there will be no retreat from oppressors—inshallah.

A while back, there were plans to enroll in a contemporary literature course at the prestigious Complutense University of Madrid, Spain.  The postgraduate program necessitated reading approximately ten books. While some of these required readings were explored, others – such as "I Am a Cat" by the Japanese author Soseki Natsume, born on February 9, 1867, in Babashita-chō – were left unexamined. The works of Natsume and Francesc Serés (born on December 22, 1972, in Zaidín, Spain) also offer deep insights and merit attention.  Particularly relevant is Natsume's novel. Set in the Meiji period (1868–1912), it presents an unnamed cat as the intelligent narrator and protagonist who observes and critiques Japanese society and human nature.  The cat embodies human fragility and highlights our aversion to self-reflection, which often leads to errors, especially in our actions and judgments.  In truth, we tend to shy away from facing our reflections.  "Russian Stories" is crucial for understanding the Kremlin's worldview from an anthropological, sociological, and political perspective.

The world is wild, infinitely so; yes, it's true…

Last week, we discussed the complex historical relationship between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of Jewish communities in both countries, Israel's neutral stance in the Eurasian conflict, as well as Russia's involvement in the Middle East war.

On January 29 of this year, the blog released an article titled (1) "The Intention to Trigger a Worldwide Conflict Should Be Readily Apparent." Why did Hamas decide to behave aggressively despite knowing how it would affect Palestinians, Israelis, and the global community? Why did Hamas choose to take actions that could worsen the situation for Palestinians, even though they were aware it would cause problems?

The Palestinian people have faced enduring hardships, often overshadowed by global political manoeuvres, and are still fighting for self-determination. Some analysts believe that because Hamas has few avenues for influence, they have adopted a daring strategy to gain attention and support from their community. However, this perspective is contested by those who argue that Hamas lacks a genuine commitment to the welfare of the Palestinian people.

(2) When examining the situation, it's essential to take into account the general lack of support for Palestinians in the Arab world. (3) This adds complexity to the geopolitical dynamics. In the context of the current geopolitical dynamics in the Arab world, it is notable that Israel and Morocco had a history of antagonism for 2,500 years until their formal normalization in December 2020, which was facilitated by the United States. Historically, Morocco has been a haven for Jews and a final resting place for numerous Jewish religious leaders. For centuries, Muslims and Jews have coexisted peacefully in Morocco, fostering a culture of peace, mutual respect, and care. This extensive shared cultural heritage has laid the foundation for a robust friendship between Morocco and Israel, with both nations now collaborating closely to forge a future marked by mutual understanding, harmony, and human advancement. The current relations between Israel and Morocco are unbeatable at this time, in trade or military intelligence.

For one to win, another must lose... such is the unyielding axiom...

In Greek mythology, Pegasus is often depicted as a splendid white stallion with wings. Myth states that Poseidon, the god of the sea and earthquakes, fathered Pegasus in his form as a horse god. Pegasus was born from the blood of Medusa, the formidable Gorgon, upon her beheading by the hero Perseus. Pegasus had a sibling named Chrysaor, who also sprang from Medusa's blood. Nevertheless, the Pegasus that has garnered current attention is a spyware created by an Israeli company, designed for discreet remote installation on iOS and Android devices. Although marketed as a tool to fight crime and terrorism, Pegasus has been extensively employed by governments for the surveillance of journalists, lawyers, political adversaries, and human rights activists.

The pact between Israel and Morocco has exacerbated already strained relations with Spain. On one side, the (4) Pegasus Affair, involving espionage on Spanish politicians' cellphones, has become a major issue. The European Parliament's inquiry committee reported on June 8, 2023, that Morocco spied on the mobile phones of Spanish officials including Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Defense Minister Margarita Robles, and Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska. Additionally, there is a dispute over (5) rare minerals found in the Atlantic Ocean, about 500 kilometers from the Canary Islands at Tropic Seamount. This seamount, rising 3,000 meters from the ocean floor and located 1,000 meters beneath the water's surface, contains tellurium in concentrations 50,000 times greater than on land. The contention over the right to exploit this discovery has surfaced. While Spain seems the obvious choice, its claim to the underwater deposit has been compromised by sensitive information disclosed in phone calls intercepted by Spanish authorities, who were themselves targets of the Pegasus spyware.

Amidst the current upheaval, former President and presidential hopeful Donald Trump has strongly asserted that his failure to be elected in the upcoming November elections might precipitate a third world war. His language, often characterized by the media as bombastic and doomsday-like, exceeds even the tales of science fiction, reminiscent of Ray Bradbury's "The Exiles."  In this instance, Mr. Trump's claims carry a certain significance.

Before delving into the primary focus of this note, it is imperative to analyze the unforeseen attack during complex ceasefire negotiations. Last Saturday afternoon, the launch of a Falaq-1 rocket by Hezbollah into Israeli territory led to the tragic deaths of 12 children and adolescents on a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, northern Israel. This event is the deadliest attack on Israel since October 7.  Why did this happen?  It seems that certain elements favor escalating conflict over peace in the region, fully aware of Israel's probable response, particularly regarding the principle of retaliation.

Israel has expressed outrage following the unexpected attack.  The Israeli military stated that its overnight strikes primarily targeted familiar sites in Lebanon, mainly near the Israeli border or around the southern port city of Tyre.  A strike was also reported in the Bekaa Valley, approximately 60 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border, targeting Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese group that has been attacking Israel alongside Hamas. Hezbollah has denied any involvement. Furthermore, Israeli military officials have confirmed that the launched projectile, the Falaq-1 rocket, originated from Iran. In response, Iran has openly warned that it will retaliate with equal force if Israel crosses any 'red lines'.  The conflict in Lebanon has intensified markedly, casting a perilous and unpredictable shadow from Iran's direction.  These lines were written on Sunday, today is Wednesday. The most important news are: "Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, was assassinated in Iran, as confirmed by the country’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas on Wednesday. The event marks a significant blow to the Palestinian group and raises the risk of further regional conflict. Hamas has accused Israel of the assassination of Mr. Haniyeh, who directed the group's political operations from his exile in Qatar. He was present in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran's newly elected president, a key supporter of Hamas." "Israel claims it killed a Hezbollah commander in an airstrike near Beirut. In response to a rocket attack on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, which resulted in the deaths of 12 children and teenagers on a soccer field and was attributed to Hezbollah, Israel conducted a lethal airstrike on a densely populated suburb of Beirut on Tuesday. The strike targeted Fuad Shukr, a senior official and close adviser to Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The information comes from three Israeli security officials who remained anonymous while discussing sensitive matters. The Israel Defense Forces later stated that their fighter jets had 'eliminated' Mr. Shukr, but without confirmation from Hezbollah, the claim remains unverified."

In conclusion, the forecasts made in this blog on January 29 of this year are regrettably coming to pass regarding this issue.

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President Vladimir Putin has warned that if NATO nations supply Ukraine with strategic weapons, it could lead to missiles being positioned near European borders. Furthermore, recent reports suggest that Russia is exploiting its invasion of Ukraine.

Given the present global geopolitical situation, the relationship that former President Donald Trump has with Israel and Russia could have an impact. As for Iran, it seems that neither the United States nor any other nation has the ability to exert control over it.

Today's headline in the area reads: "Russia hits Kyiv with massive drone barrage."

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Open Indo-Pacific Conflict

(6) The Taiwan Strait conflict, often sidelined by discussions of global politics, remains a critical concern for the United States, China, and Taiwan's neighboring countries. Taiwan has operated independently of mainland China since 1949. Despite China's commitment to the one-China policy, which views Taiwan as a part of its territory, Taiwan's practical independence brings its sovereign status into question. The possibility of a conflict in Taiwan, reminiscent of the situation following Russia's incursion into Ukraine, has escalated concerns. The ongoing strain on U.S.-China relations adds to the complexity of the issue. President Xi Jinping's assertive stance on reunification has intensified the instability in the Indo-Pacific region, forcing nations to declare their positions explicitly.

“China’s president Xi Jinping has paid tribute to Henry Kissinger’s role in reshaping the relationship between China and the United States half a century ago. In a message of condolence to US president Joe Biden, Mr Xi said Dr Kissinger, who has died aged 100, would be remembered for his “continued sage advice” about relations between the two great powers. “Dr Henry Kissinger was a world-renowned strategist, as well as an old friend and good friend of the Chinese people,” he said. “He made it his lifelong pursuit to promote the development of China-US relations and enhance the friendship between the two peoples. Kissinger’s name will forever be associated with China-US relations.” Dr Kissinger visited China more than 100 times, most recently last May when he met Mr Xi and other senior officials. His secret visit to Beijing in 1971 paved the way for the normalisation of relations that followed Richard Nixon’s visit the following year.

https://www.irishtimes.com/world/us/2023/11/30/henry-kissinger-reshaped-relationship-between-china-and-us-says-xi-jinping/

In the current climate of global geopolitical tensions, former President Donald Trump, like any U.S. administration, has limited options regarding China. Kissinger has cautioned against an inadequate or misguided strategy towards a formidable China.

“Kissinger warns of 'colossal' dangers in US-China tensions/Strains with China are "the biggest problem for America, the biggest problem for the world," Kissinger told the McCain Institute's Sedona Forum on global issues. "Because if we can't solve that, then the risk is that all over the world a kind of cold war will develop between China and the United States."

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210430-kissinger-warns-of-colossal-dangers-in-us-china-tensions

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The Man Who Loved Fireworks...

(7) North and South Korea’s Shared Past and Divergent Future…

Gunpowder, often associated with fireworks and celebrations in various cultures, takes on a darker role in North Korea, where it's used to develop long-range nuclear missiles.  This practice seriously threatens neighbouring countries like South Korea and Japan.  The relationship between North and South Korea is fraught with complexity and marked by a history of tension and complex negotiations.  Japan embraced pacifism after the atomic bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in August 1945, events that forever changed the course of warfare and international diplomacy. The country's stance on warfare and its aftermath have shaped global military ethics.  The enduring question is whether the lessons of these events have been heeded.  Regrettably, it seems that humanity has not fully learned from these past tragedies, as evidenced by the tension each time North Korea launches missiles and how South Korea and Japan must alert their populations with alarms.  What life ...

Former President Donald Trump has described his connection with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as deep and captivating.  He has mentioned receiving letters of great affection from "Rocket Man."  On June 10, Kim expressed his belief that their (8) "deep and special friendship will serve as a magical force," referring to their correspondence as "letters of love," according to transcripts from two letters reported by CNN.  Additionally, Kim sent his best wishes for Trump's 73rd birthday, calling it the ideal age for wisdom.  This message suggests that the former president has a strong position now, possibly even stronger than before.  Why is that? (9) Following President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea on June 19, which was marked by "grandeur, gifts, and performances," it is clear that the dynamic between "Kim and Donald" has evolved into a triangle of affection that includes "Kim, Donald, and Vladimir," reflecting the motto of the Paris Olympics, "Games Wide Open".

Soseki Natsume's nameless cat could be seen as being in an asylum, which leads one to ponder humanity's madness and how we self-destruct.  Understanding this complex situation requires a global collective effort, and all parties must be willing to compromise, which is quite challenging.

Last but not least, thanks to Elon Musk for the strong support of the democratic forces in Venezuela in such a difficult time.

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Beijing has already prohibited exports of rare earth refining and magnet manufacturing technologies. Source: POLITICO EU

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Precious rare earth metals belong to the state, China declares

Beijing’s hold on the coveted resources has long been seen as a threat to Western clean power and tech supply chains…

POLITICO EU, by Gabriel Gavin, June 30, 2024.

The Chinese government has introduced a slew of new measures designed to tighten its grip on lucrative natural resources used in everything from electric cars to wind turbines.

In a list released by the country's State Council on Saturday, Beijing declared that rare earth metals are the property of the state and warned "no organization or person may encroach on or destroy rare-earth resources."

From Oct. 1, when the rules come into force, the government will operate a rare earth traceability database to ensure it can control the extraction, use and export of the metals. China currently produces around 60 percent of the world's rare earth metals, and is the origin of around 90 percent of refined rare earths on the market.

Beijing has already prohibited exports of rare earth refining and magnet manufacturing technologies. In January, it banned the export of gallium and germanium, both highly sought after by the computer-chip industry.

Fears that China is looking to exert control over the industry, and could disrupt critical technology, automotive and renewable energy supply chains, have sparked a race to shore up supplies from alternative suppliers. Both the U.S. and the EU have launched efforts to procure rare earths at home and abroad, including in Vietnam, Brazil and Australia.

A year ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced construction of the first large-scale rare earth refinery outside of Asia, located in Estonia. She said the move would "bolster European resilience and security of supply."

A 2022 analysis from the European Parliament warned that over-reliance on monopolistic suppliers was a major risk for Europe. "The EU imports 93 percent of its magnesium from China, 98 percent of its borate from Turkey, and 85 percent of its niobium from Brazil. Russia produces 40 percent of the world's palladium," it said. "The latter is a reminder of the strategic implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the need for the EU to prepare for an increasingly uncertain world."

The EU has launched a probe into anti-competitive trading allegations against the Chinese electric vehicle market, which benefits from heavy government subsidies and preferential access to essential rare earth metals. Earlier this month, the two sides agreed they would host consultations in order to try and resolve the standoff.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

"Drill, baby, drill": The American fossil fuel surge could risk a downturn in Europe...

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Both Trump and Biden are advocating for profitable U.S. fossil fuel agreements—a gamble considering the EU's intention to reduce its reliance on such energy sources. (1) "The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Revealed" suggests history may repeat itself, marking a dire moment for the energy sector of the aging, vulnerable continent. "The Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning" refers to the unpredictable outcomes of sensitive political issues. In politics, certain topics are so delicate that they can cause upheaval within the social and political structure of a country.

(1) https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24-dxjl5-h6lly-jx95h-dalp4-6zlrk-fmre6-7zbng

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“Happy Sabbath! Wishing you and your family the best of health and happiness…

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Woody Guthrie's "This Land Is Your Land" celebrates America's beauty and diversity despite the country's actual reality…

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Far away, to be a surprise...

The attempt at former President Donald Trump's life in Pennsylvania last Saturday is indeed a stark reminder of the ongoing violence in the United States. The country has a long history of attacks on both prominent figures and innocent civilians in various public places like schools, nightclubs, and shopping centers. These tragic events continue to highlight the deep divisions within the nation, casting a somber shadow over its landscape. Woody Guthrie's "This Land Is Your Land" paints a picture of America's beauty and diversity, but it can feel like an idealized vision compared to the current reality. The contrast between the song's hopeful message and the persistent violence is indeed striking.

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Last Saturday, our discussion centered on Hemingway's portrayal of aging as an unavoidable passage, a theme that recurs in his literature, in relation to the health status of President Joe Biden. The metaphor of the brain turning from blue to grey in the twilight of life to reflect weariness and fatigue is quite poignant. The fear of vulnerability and isolation is amplified by age, making decisions incredibly challenging, that’s life. In "The Old Man and the Sea," published in 1952 and awarded the 1953 Pulitzer Prize, Hemingway depicts a lonely, aged fisherman grappling with the vast ocean.This conflict is bound to escalate into a perilous situation when it moves into the volatile environment of the "Situation Room" in one of the world's most influential nations.

In summary, the text discusses the challenges of influencing the internal dynamics of individual nations while recognizing the interconnectedness of the global community. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 symbolized the end of the Cold War, a period marked by tension and conflict. While some saw the event as a “positive” development that allowed for the sharing of wealth with previously oppressed populations, others noted that it also led to new divisions based on ideologies and power struggles. Additionally, religion has emerged as a significant factor in contemporary global conflicts. It is indeed a bit disheartening to think that the ideals expressed in "This Land Is Your Land" might not fully align with today's reality.

As I conclude the analysis, a notification pops up on my computer screen, announcing the regrettable yet anticipated assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump. The nominee of the Republican Party has become even stronger following recent events, while President Joe Biden, recovering from a bout of COVID, appears increasingly vulnerable. Despite this, and the persistence often associated with age, he has not shown any intention of stepping down. Today, the New Yorker released an article stating, "Doctors Are Increasingly Worried About Biden," where nine physicians expressed concerns that President Biden's symptoms may surpass a typical age-related decline. Concurrently, another article emphasized, "The Presidential Race Is in Uncharted Territory, but It’s Clear Who’s Winning." CNN's Harry Enten suggested that Donald Trump is likely to win unless there are significant changes in the race, while pollster Ann Selzer discussed the methodology behind polling knowledge. Now, the million-dollar question is: what will happen with Ukraine and Europe? 

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The history of Ukraine represents a multifaceted process of disengagement from Russia…

The world is currently facing one of the most severe war scenarios since the end of World War II. Ukraine's current boundaries and identity have been shaped by centuries of conflict and cultural exchange. The roots of this relationship trace back to the Kyivan Rus, a medieval state that is considered the cultural and historical foundation for both Ukraine and Russia. Over the centuries, Ukraine has been divided and ruled by various powers, including the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. Ukraine's history is indeed complex and deeply intertwined with Russia. The region has seen periods of independence and foreign domination, particularly by Russia. So, the strategic significance of the conflict in Ukraine is immense, and neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve a decisive victory, making a resolution seem unattainable. Understanding the Jewish roots in both Russia and Ukraine is crucial, as these communities have deep historical ties dating back over a thousand years. Jewish communities have existed in Ukraine since the time of the Kievan Rus' and have contributed significantly to cultural and religious movements such as Hasidism and Zionism. Similarly, Jewish communities in Russia have a long and complex history, marked by periods of both flourishing and persecution. During the 1970s and 1980s, the Russian Jewish community was the only minority group in the Soviet Union allowed to emigrate to Israel or, in some cases, the United States. This unique opportunity was influenced by several factors, including political and social considerations, the community's economic influence in the black market, international pressures, and changes in the Soviet Union's stance on Jewish emigration.

Israel has maintained a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while Russia has also taken a neutral position in the Israel-Palestine conflict. This mutual neutrality helps both countries navigate their complex international relationships. On the other hand, the Russian Orthodox Church has played a significant role in supporting the Kremlin during the conflict with Ukraine. Led by Patriarch Kirill, the Church has provided moral and ideological backing for the war, framing it as a defense of the "Russian World" and aligning closely with the Kremlin's narratives. This support has been evident in sermons and public statements that justify the conflict and promote a unified Russian identity.

(2) In 1979, Andrei Tarkovsky, one of the few Russian intellectuals granted exile by the Communist regime, released his film Stalker, which was filmed in the post-industrial wasteland of *Estonia. The film seems to eerily predict the Chernobyl nuclear disaster of 1986, which led to the formation of an exclusion zone around Pripyat, Ukraine. The Chernobyl disaster had profound social and environmental impacts. The explosion released large amounts of radioactive material, leading to long-term health issues, environmental contamination not only in Ukraine but also in much of Europe, and the displacement of thousands of people.

The ongoing conflict with Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas region continues to shape Ukraine's political landscape. This prolonged struggle has caused significant economic damage, social disruption, and environmental harm, deeply affecting the country's political and religious leadership.

Concerns about a scenario similar to the Yalta Conference of February 4-11, 1945, where the leaders of the US, UK, and Soviet Union discussed the postwar reorganization of Germany and Europe, facilitating the end of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, are unfounded. The objective answer is no, primarily due to China's significant influence in the new geopolitical order. Many countries in the region fear a potential repetition of history with a "second Yalta," where the *US and Russia make deals supposedly at their expense.

The phrase "This land is your land, this land is my land" from Woody Guthrie's song emphasizes the idea of collective ownership and inclusivity, celebrating the beauty and shared responsibility of the land. However, this sense of unity and belonging is starkly contrasted by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, where territorial disputes and geopolitical tensions have led to significant strife and division.

(2) https://energycentral.com/c/og/tarkovsky-1986

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“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1814589115519640026

---

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”

―Antoine De Saint-Exupery

“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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TU.S. companies are already planning a pivot away from Europe. Image: Germán & Co via Shutterstock

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‘Drill, baby, drill’: America’s fossil fuel boom risks bust in Europe

Both Trump and Biden are pushing lucrative U.S. fossil fuel deals — a risky bet given the EU’s plans to wean itself off the energy source.

The article "‘Drill, baby, drill’: America’s fossil fuel boom risks bust in Europe" by Gabriel Gavin and Ben Lefebvre, published on July 19, 2024, discusses the potential consequences of the United States' fossil fuel deals in Europe, especially in light of the EU's plans to reduce reliance on this energy source.

From Texas to Pennsylvania, there's something more valuable than gold under the ground — and climate-anxious Democrats are too afraid to touch it.

So goes Donald Trump's typically hyperbolic argument on new oil and gas ventures, which Republicans trumpeted this week as they formally tapped the ex-president as their 2024 White House candidate.

In a speech at the Republican National Convention Thursday, Trump blasted the "green new scam" and doubled down on plans to boost fossil fuel production.

There's a major problem, though: The vast fossil fuel reserves aren’t the energy El Dorado the Republican contender's economic plans depend on. Even under Joe Biden, America may have already overcommitted.

Just a year ago, it didn’t necessarily seem that way. The U.S. had been handed a major new market in Europe as it swapped Russian gas for American supplies. Some Europeans even began worrying they were trading an over-reliance on Russia for over-reliance on America, with costly implications.

Now, though, Europe is preparing to kick its gas habit altogether as it seeks to slash planet-warming emissions. Gas demand is dropping, companies aren’t signing long-term gas contracts and renewable energy is growing. Meanwhile, politicians are increasingly pushing to be in control of their own energy supplies.

Still, Trump is bellowing “drill, baby, drill" on the campaign trail and the sentiment was front and center at this week’s Republican National Convention, where the party’s platform promises to “unleash Energy Production.”

"The biggest producers are states like Texas, Pennsylvania and Louisiana — and at least some of them are important swing states," said Kunro Irié, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Trump's plan centers on a bet that the U.S. can cash in on foreign demand if it rips up green legislation, massively expands offshore drilling and ends a Joe Biden-imposed moratorium on new liquid natural gas (LNG) export permits.

Even if Biden wins and maintains the moratorium, U.S. oil and gas production has already reached all-time highs and is hiring 10 percent more staff. And in the coming years, LNG exports will still spike, even if no new permits are awarded. 

But a cliff edge may be looming.

Turning green

Russia's move to slash gas supplies to Europe after its invasion of Ukraine didn't just spark a frantic search for alternative providers. It also forced the European Union to drastically drive down its fuel use. Since 2022, the bloc has slashed demand by 18-20 percent each year. 

Some countries, such as Finland, Denmark and Lithuania, have virtually halved their demand, meaning they need far less gas than at any time in recent history, according to a report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. And despite funding challenges and uneven implementation, the bloc has seen renewable power skyrocket as part of a plan to be carbon neutral by 2050.

"We expect that demand for natural gas is going to continue declining at pace," said Georg Zachmann, a senior fellow at economics think tank Bruegel. "Given we have these climate commitments, the expectation is that demand will be lower by 2030, even lower by 2040, with the effect that there is no long-term gas demand in Europe."

Several EU countries have ambitions to phase out fossil gas over the next decade, ahead of a 2050 climate neutrality target.

Buyer's market

Pledging Europe will take "its energy destiny back into its own hands," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in April said that despite the shrinking demand, officials were still trying to negotiate the best deals in the meantime.

"A large wave of new LNG export projects are coming to market in the second half of the decade, mostly from the U.S. and from Qatar," she said. "These projects are going to increase the global supply of LNG by 50 percent. As a result, we're moving from a world of shortfalls of gas to the opposite, a world where we could soon see an abundance. This could bring significantly lower gas prices."

That rise in capacity could spell trouble for those looking to sell gas to a shrinking pool of interested European customers. For years, American analysts have questioned why the EU was refusing to strike long-term contracts with U.S. suppliers to replace lost Russian supplies. Now, it looks like that might have been a prudent move.

"I don't think it's a coincidence they haven't struck these contracts at all," said Tom Marzec-Manser, a gas markets expert at commodities giant ICIS, arguing the Europeans may well be betting on prices continuing to come down and demand continuing to shrink. "Without a doubt, Europe won’t be the biggest customer for LNG over a 15-20 year period." 

According to Marzec-Manser, Trump ending the Biden administration's LNG export permitting pause would mean little because "these projects won't come online for years and their gas almost certainly won't ever end up in Europe."

Go East

While Democrats and Republicans fight over whether the fossil fuel industry should continue to expand, U.S. companies are already planning a pivot away from Europe.

Cheniere was the leading American supplier of LNG to Europe in 2022 and 2023. Its executive vice president and chief commercial officer, Anatol Feygin, told POLITICO that the rise in sales across the Atlantic was "not master puppeteered by the U.S government or Cheniere. It is the invisible hand of the market that sends the price signal."

According to him, "We have about three dozen long-term customers. Roughly half are entities that are based in Europe. But very few of those are in essence wired to go from Point A to Point B." 

Now, he said, "Asia is going to be the driver of gas and LNG demand," not Europe.

That flexibility has until now actually played in America's favor, according to Michael Lewis, CEO of Uniper, Germany's largest gas importer. 

"When it comes to LNG supplies, Germany has limited options. This is because most of the exporting countries only want to sign long-term contracts for about 15 or 20 years. This does not fit with the German strategy of decarbonization,” he said. "The U.S.A. are among the very few suppliers ready to sell on a mid-term basis, as well."

That may have given U.S. firms a lion's share of the market, but it's a market that could disappear very quickly, leaving American firms with a hole to plug in their budgets. While extra American production will be helpful if Europe has unexpected power demands or an extremely cold winter, said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, the direction of travel is away from the West and toward the East.

"As renewables grow and maybe as Europe starts to find alternative sources of energy, you can see more of those supplies, say, going to Asia." But, with shipping costs making up a large share of the overall price of LNG, it remains to be seen whether the U.S. can pivot its logistics from East to West while maintaining competitiveness.

Europe's Rust Belt

One downside accompanying Europe's gas demand reduction, and the associated price rises, has been a dramatic downturn for energy-intensive industries.

According to a report from Bordoff's Center on Global Energy Policy in March, the EU's gas demand "declined by about 11 percentage points between January and December 2022, and remained depressed throughout 2023, ending the year approximately 13 percentage points below January 2022 levels."

The worst affected have been sectors like manufacturing and chemicals, which have seen production decreases and layoffs.

David Goldwyn, a former official in the State Department and Energy Department during Barack Obama's presidency and chairman of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center’s Energy Advisory Group, said the picture could change.

"There is a lot of upside for industrial revival in Europe, which would be more gas," he said.

However, according to Zachmann, the European energy analyst, the decision lies not with Trump and Biden, but in what kind of Europe will emerge from the energy crisis.

"Lots of heavy industries have had a hard time in recent years,” Zachmann said. “But, there is growing pressure to create skilled service jobs in their place. Ultimately, if Europe doesn't produce that much natural gas of its own, and has to bring it in from across the Atlantic, there may come a point that it doesn't feel very wise to set up gas-intensive industries like fertilizer manufacturing here anyway."

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

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For whom do the bells toll at the White House?

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“Hemingway's timeless portrayal of the irreversible path to aging in human beings was undoubtedly his nightmare in his writing. In his tale, "The Old Man and the Sea," published in 1952 and awarded the 1953 Pulitzer Prize, Hemingway portrays the lonely and aged fisherman grappling with the vast ocean. This struggle becomes a tragedy when transposed into the tumultuous realm of the "situation room" in one of the world's most powerful countries. To make matters worse, the world is currently facing one of the most severe war scenarios in half a century. The strategic significance of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the friction between the U.S. and China, and the fears in Europe of a possible return of former president Trump contribute to this tense global situation.

Germán & Co

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Happy Sabbath! Wishing you and your family the best of health and happiness…

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“The comparison between Franklin Delano Roosevelt's 1944 re-election campaign and Joe Biden's current political situation is indeed intriguing. Roosevelt, despite severe health issues like polio and heart disease, was determined to win re-election after nearly twelve years in office. He managed his ailments with various coping mechanisms, such as using a heavier coffee mug to hide a tremor and limiting his cigarette intake. By May 1944, his declining health had reduced his daily working hours to just four…

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Similarly, Joe Biden faces challenges related to his age and health, with growing calls from within his party for him to step aside. Despite these challenges, Biden remains determined to continue his campaign, emphasizing his experience and commitment to his policies. Both leaders demonstrate resilience and a strong commitment to their political goals, even in the face of significant personal and public challenges.

There has been a growing chorus of voices, including prominent figures like George Clooney, Barack Obama, and Michael Douglas, calling for the veteran politician to step aside. This is not uncommon; ineffective service often leads to replacement. Recently, several key Democrats have urged President Joe Biden to withdraw from his re-election campaign. While it's a difficult reality for the current president, many feel this reaction is overdue in our complex and often contentious world, is too late in we tajke in considerations the following radiography of the world.

The world is facing significant geopolitical challenges. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to draw international attention, with implications for global security and economic stability. In the Middle East, tensions remain high, particularly in Gaza, where ceasefire proposals struggle to address the root causes of the conflict.

North Korea's aggressive rhetoric and actions, such as sending trash-filled balloons to South Korea and increasing military provocations, further contribute to regional instability. Meanwhile, Taiwan is experiencing political unrest, with large protests against controversial legislative reforms that many fear could undermine its democracy. It's important to mention the (1) "fuel war." This term can refer to various conflicts and competitions over fuel resources, such as the geopolitical struggles for oil control or even the competition in blockchain networks known as gas wars. Each context highlights the significant impact of fuel on global dynamics and technological advancements.

These conflicts highlight the complex and interconnected nature of global politics today, emphasizing the need for diplomatic efforts and international cooperation to address these pressing issues.

The current geopolitical landscape is indeed complex and fraught with risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Russia's invasion, has drawn significant international attention and support for Ukraine from Western countries. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House adds another layer of uncertainty to the U.S. stance and global stability.

In the Middle East, tensions are high with the conflict between Hamas and Israel, involving multiple countries. U.S. interventions in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria have further complicated relations with Iran. Additionally, North Korea's aggressive actions and Taiwan's precarious position in East Asia contribute to the global tension.

The number of casualties in recent conflicts is alarming, with over 200,000 deaths in state wars in 2022 alone. The breakdown of communication and trust among major powers exacerbates the instability. Despite efforts to de-escalate conflicts, the actions of key players like Russia, Iran, and China, along with the unpredictable nature of global politics, keep the risk of further destabilization high.

However, is there still hope for peace? There is always hope, but so far, diplomatic solutions and international cooperation, which are crucial for preventing escalation and maintaining global stability, have not been very successful. The United Nations recently launched a "New Agenda for Peace," outlining a vision to strengthen multilateral efforts for peace and security. This agenda emphasizes the importance of diplomacy, regional security frameworks, and addressing the root causes of conflicts, such as inequalities and human rights violations.

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Here's a summary of the key points from the sources mentioned:

1. **Crisis Group's List of Conflicts to Monitor in 2024**:
   - The list includes Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan, and U.S.-China tensions.

2. **El País on Geopolitical and Economic Risks for 2024**:
   - El País discusses geopolitical tensions, economic risks, the impact of central banks, instability in the Red Sea, and potential trade disruptions.

3. **Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2024**:
   - The top risks include ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, potential political violence in the U.S. during the election, and broader tensions with China and Russia.

4. **Council on Foreign Relations' Risks for 2024**:
   - The Council highlights risks such as domestic terrorism, U.S. political violence, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and potential migration from Central America and Mexico. Gabriel, S. A., Rosendahl, K. E., Egging, R. G., Avetisyan, H. G., & Siddiqui, S. (2012). (1) Cartelization in gas markets: Studying the potential for a “Gas OPEC”. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.05.014

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“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1812116428679487864

---

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”

―Antoine De Saint-Exupery

“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

---

The creativity and dedication of Germán and his team to each project is evident in their artistic work.

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There has been a growing chorus of voices, including prominent figures like George Clooney, Barack Obama, and Michael Douglas, calling for the veteran politician to step aside. This is not uncommon; ineffective service often leads to replacement. Recently, several key Democrats have urged President Joe Biden to withdraw from his re-election campaign. While it's a difficult reality for the current president, many feel this reaction is overdue in our complex and often contentious world, is too late…

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‘You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going’: Nervous world leaders greet Biden at NATO

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Biden’s solo press conference Thursday will be the most critical set piece of the NATO Summit, both for the president and the alliance…

The article from POLITICO by Eli Stokols, Alexander Ward, and Jonathan Lemire, published on July 11, 2024, discusses the concerns of NATO allies regarding President Joe Biden's perceived physical and political frailty. The article highlights the tension at the NATO Summit, where leaders are worried about Biden's ability to lead and the potential return of Donald Trump, which could impact the alliance's stability and Ukraine's defense against Russia.

The contrast couldn’t be starker: President Joe Biden, physically and politically frail, presiding over what could be his final NATO Summit at a moment when the alliance has never been so strong.

That tension is not lost on NATO officials from multiple European nations who say they are alarmed by Biden’s apparent decline and increasingly concerned at the prospect of seeing an ardent champion of the alliance replaced in November by a hostile Donald Trump.

NATO officials are both saddened at how Biden’s fortunes have turned and frustrated that the storyline has distracted from what was to be a celebratory summit. They are also increasingly resigned to his defeat this November, which they fear could halt or reverse the 32-member alliance’s recent momentum, threatening Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russia’s onslaught and the broader stability that has been the bedrock of the organization since its Cold War creation.

“It’s a very weird feeling to be in Europe listening to the president of the United States, and you’re more stressed about whether he will go off script than being excited to listen to the leader of the free world,” a senior European diplomat said. “You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going or whether he’s going to fall or what he’s going to forget or if he’ll say ‘North Korea’ when he meant ‘South Korea.’ It’s just a weird experience.”

As visiting leaders applauded his speech and exchanged warm smiles and handshakes, they and aides assessed him with an acute awareness of the context. They all registered the continuing fallout from Biden’s dismal June 27 debate performance two weeks ago, the ongoing drip of doubt among Democrats who no longer believe he can defeat Trump in November and the precarity of a moment when his candidacy seems to hang on every word and step.

“He didn’t look good,” said a Washington-based diplomat from one of those countries.

NATO officials are frustrated at how Biden’s political problems have distracted from what was to be a celebratory summit — and increasingly resigned to his defeat this November. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP

However closely watched Biden’s words and walking gait have been over the first two days of gatherings, his solo press conference Thursday evening will be the most critical set piece of the week, both for the president politically and the alliance.

“We would prefer a more stable situation in the U.S.,” said the official, who like others interviewed for this story were granted anonymity.

The overwhelming focus on Biden, some officials said, was diverting attention away from Trump and what it would mean if the Republican, who as president berated NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and threatened to withdraw from the alliance, returned to the White House.

“Everyone’s focusing on Biden’s appearance and less on Trump’s statements about NATO,” the senior European diplomat added. “He’s not that much younger.”

In a speech in Washington on Tuesday night, none other than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referenced November’s presidential election as critical, expressing optimism that the U.S. will remain committed to his country’s defense regardless of the outcome but urging NATO members to act with urgency and “not to wait for November.”

Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama, said that NATO allies, many of which have already accelerated defense spending in response to the war in Ukraine, would continue working toward greater strategic autonomy as it becomes more likely in their view that Trump may win.

“NATO allies understand that the probability of a Trump administration has gone up dramatically since the debate,” Daalder said. “That’s just a reality people have to deal with, so that means more outreach to the Trump camp in the short term and more determination by European allies to get to a place where those countries are doing more things on their own.”

When heads of state arrived on Wednesday morning for the first working session of NATO’s 75th anniversary summit, many of them took a turn at the “doorstep” microphone positioned before a long press riser to offer opening remarks focused mostly on alliance unity and support for Ukraine.

Hanno Pevkur: Ukraine 'should be our main focus'

But nearly everyone who spoke got hit with the same awkward questions about Biden’s weakened political position following his debate with Trump and what his electoral loss could mean for the alliance.

“I’m not going to comment on this topic,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who walked off after speaking for just a few minutes. Others responded mostly with platitudes about respecting America’s democratic process and professions of faith that NATO will endure even if Trump is ushered back into office.

Alexander Stubb, the American-educated president of Finland, one of NATO’s newest members, lamented the “toxic” level of political polarization in the U.S., while stating optimistically that Washington will continue to need European allies even if Trump wins in November.

“Of course we’re looking at elections throughout the world, and the American elections are very important,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. “But let’s be extremely clear, it’s the American citizens who will make their choice and that is a choice we will respect.”

De Croo, who met with Biden at the White House roughly a month ago, told reporters he found the president to have been “very clear on our objectives”; and he praised his Tuesday evening speech before NATO leaders at Mellon Auditorium as an “extremely strong statement.”

But when he was asked what he made of Biden’s shaky debate performance, De Croo shuffled away, eagerly ceding the microphone to another leader waiting in the wings.

“It’s incredibly awkward for our allies to get asked these questions about Biden’s mental acuity,” said Brett Bruen, a former State Department official under Obama. “They have their prepared pivot points, but it isn’t easy.”

The three-day NATO summit, which wraps up Thursday, was something of a diversion for Biden as he fights to contain a growing Democratic resistance to his reelection bid. But despite the difficulty of finding time for direct outreach to wobbly lawmakers and donors, the opportunity to play a leading role on the world stage, his aides believed, could go a long way toward assuaging doubts and reminding domestic political allies about the importance of experience and shared values.

His forceful and relatively crisp opening speech Tuesday emphasized his and NATO’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense and was well-received by lawmakers and pundits.

“Everyone was watching with bated breath as he took the stage,” said Rachel Rizzo, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. “He successfully quelled concerns because he came across as forceful and presidential. But his age and his ability to do this job for another four years are certainly questions European leaders are still asking themselves.”

Biden’s closest aides recognize that he can’t afford any public stumbles this week at the Washington summit, particularly in Thursday’s high-stakes news conference, according to the two officials. And even then, given the growing chorus of supporters calling on him to end his campaign, it might not be enough.

As Biden greeted all 31 leaders and posed for photos on Wednesday, foreign diplomats watching those formalities and the president’s scripted opening remarks at the start of the first private working session were glued to his movements, highly attuned to the tenor of his voice — waiting, in many cases, to see the version of the president they saw in that first debate.

Several foreign leaders, during their remarks upon arrival and at various panel discussions occurring on the summit sidelines this week, have addressed the growing possibility of Trump returning to the White House next year. Many have touted how 23 of the 32 member nations have reached or exceeded the shared goal that countries spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense — a major sticking point for Trump, who threatened to pull the U.S. out of the alliance at the 2018 summit in Brussels unless other countries shared more of the burden.

Biden affirms NATO commitment to Ukraine: 'Russia will not prevail'

Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, recalled Trump reading off a list of nations’ paltry spending levels at the 2018 summit. “Things have changed now,” he said, suggesting that the notion of “Trump-proofing” the alliance with new spending commitments and initiatives aimed at supporting the long term defense of Ukraine and Europe should be recast as “future-proofing” the alliance. “We have to understand it is in our own best interests to spend more…and that will give us an upper hand toward anyone in the White House.”

But given that Trump’s isolationist leanings are deeply ingrained in the U.S. — and have been for decades — a number of NATO leaders are somewhat frustrated that the focus on Biden may be drowning out their broader message for the American public during a summit on U.S. soil.

“The Americans need to hear from us all that the problem is not Ukraine,” said Baiba Braže, the Latvian foreign minister. “The problem is Russia.”

One official from a NATO country, who was granted anonymity to speak more candidly, lamented that little of the summit’s significant and substantive actions — including the announcement of air defense systems for Ukraine, a promise that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to NATO membership and major defense industrial base investments — won’t break through, at least with a U.S. audience.

“All the Americans are looking for at this summit is the photo op of Biden with allies,” the official said. “We’re really concerned that the world will essentially be leaderless for the next several months, and then we don’t know what comes after that.”

That nervousness about the prospect of Trump once again leading NATO’s most indispensable member country is deeply felt among officials and many heads of state, whose confident statements about the alliance maintaining its recent momentum cut against other expressions of real uncertainty.

“I am hoping, praying for, expecting the transatlantic alliance will be strong and alive also in the coming years,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday during an event at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Hopefully, no matter what happens in the U.S., that will be the case.”

Although there is still time for Biden to abandon his campaign, many visiting officials no longer believe he will be reelected should he remain in the race. Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur, for one, responded to a question earlier this week about future U.S. support for Ukraine by suggesting that the answer won’t be clear until January, speaking of Trump’s return as a foregone conclusion.

“I would like to see what the new administration will do,” Pevkur said. “What happens in January when the new president takes office?”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

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Siemens Gamesa is engaged in one of Britain's most significant decarbonization initiatives to date.

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“40 years ago, Siemens Gamesa recognized the potential of combining nature and engineering to produce clean energy. Today, its wind turbines generate more than 130 GW of power worldwide, enough to supply more than 110 million homes annually. In addition, the company contributes to the sustainable growth and development of local communities across the globe. There is no doubt that Siemens Gamesa is a leader in the renewable energy sector. It aims to offer the best onshore and offshore wind turbines and services worldwide.

Now, Siemens Gamesa has recently secured a significant contract with ScottishPower Renewables to supply 95 units of its flagship SG 14-236 DD wind turbine for the East Anglia 3 wind power project. Located in the North Sea off England's east coast, the project has a total capacity of 1.4 GW and is part of the larger East Anglia Hub development, which aims to generate 2.9 GW of clean energy. Once operational, East Anglia 3 is expected to provide electricity to approximately 1.3 million UK households. Construction is scheduled to begin in spring 2026, with completion anticipated by the end of that year. This marks a significant step towards the UK's decarbonization objectives and energy self-sufficiency… Today, in The New York Times, in the article tittled :"Britain has grand ambitions for clean energy, but are they achievable? With four decades of experience, Siemens Gamesa has demonstrated that all its projects reach fruition...

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“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1811001495774441641

---

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”

―Antoine De Saint-Exupery

“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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A mold for making a wind turbine blade on the floor of Siemens Gamesa factory in Hull, England. The plant has been making the blades since 2016.Credit...Jack Roe for The New York Times

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Britain Has Huge Clean Energy Ambitions, but Are They Realistic?

“Analysts warn that the Labour Party’s proposals are unlikely to be cheap and could come at the cost of jobs in the oil and gas industry…

NYT by Stanley Reed, reporting from Hull, England, July 10, 2024.

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There may be no better place to see evidence of Britain’s shift to cleaner energy than a sleek industrial complex on the Humber estuary outside Hull, a faded port city.

On a July morning, workers in a brightly lit building were preparing molds for fiberglass wind turbine blades longer than football fields. Outside on the docks, squat six-wheeled vehicles gingerly maneuvered a blade weighing 50 metric tons for loading onto a ship that would take it to Scotland for installation.

The factory, which is operated by Siemens Gamesa, a unit of the German company Siemens Energy, began producing the massive blades in 2016. It has since expanded to accommodate larger models.

The factory is a case study for how the new British government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose Labour Party delivered a decisive election victory last week, hopes to use investment in clean energy to bolster stagnant economic growth.

Andy Sykes, the manager of the factory, said that 500 million pounds, or about $630 million, had already been invested in the plant, which employs 1,300 people in an area that has struggled economically for decades. Another round of expansion is in the works.

The plant also serves as an anchor for green efforts in the region, one of Britain’s major industrial areas, which is dominated by oil refineries and other polluters.

As Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer hopes to use investment in clean energy to strengthen a stagnant. Image: Germán & Co via Shutterstock

Mr. Sykes, though, said the British government would need to attract the funding for port expansion and other efforts to keep the offshore wind industry growing. “There needs to be a commitment and a guarantee that there’s a return on investment,” he said.

The government is also facing concerns about the costs of the transition and its potential to hurt job growth in a region that depends on the energy industry for employment opportunities.

Executives in the clean energy industry like most of what they have heard from the Labour Party. Mr. Starmer, who took office on Friday, had made the rapid expansion of low carbon energy — from wind to nuclear — a key plank of his campaign to not only tackle climate change but to also bring in what could be tens of billions of pounds in investment.

Among his pledges: quadrupling Britain’s offshore wind capacity, which is already second globally to China’s, as part of an ambitious effort to eliminate emissions from electric power generation by 2030.

Mr. Starmer also wants to streamline Britain’s agonizingly slow development planning process, sweeping away restrictions that prevent the building of land-based wind farms, for instance. Wind is already the largest source of power generation in Britain, accounting for about 30 percent of supplies over the last year, slightly more than natural gas.

And Mr. Starmer wants the government to have a bigger role in renewable energy.

The vision pleases both clean energy operators and environmentalists, who have chafed at what they perceive as a loss of momentum on climate goals under the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

“Achieving that by 2030 or even getting close to that would be just an enormous step forward, far, far ahead of our major economy peers,” said Chris Stark, a former chief executive of the Climate Change Committee, a government body that monitors Britain’s plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

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Rows of wind turbine blades are arranged for transport to offshore wind farms before being loaded onto ships. Wind power constitutes the largest source of electricity generation in Britain. Source: Jack Roe for The New York Times

Mr. Starmer is also taking a tough approach to old-line energy producers. He has said he would tighten an existing tax squeeze on oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea and stop issuing exploration licenses in the area, which, while in decline, is still a major source of both energy and jobs.

“The U.K. has, and I think continues to be, at the leading edge of the energy transition,” said Roger Martella, the chief sustainability officer at GE Vernova, a maker of wind turbines and other energy-related machinery.

Labour has presented these proposals as an almost risk-free bonanza. The push will not only help stave off climate change, but also create some 650,000 jobs, the party forecasts.

The party says that more blades spinning in the safety of home waters would insulate Britain from the impact of international events, like the sharp rise in electricity and natural gas prices that occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“Families and businesses will have lower bills for good,” the party said in an election document.

Analysts warn, though, that Labour’s proposals are unlikely to be cheap, and they come with other risks. For one thing, Labour is proposing a large effort to build green energy infrastructure in an economy that is more focused on sectors like finance. “The U.K. doesn’t have almost any of the supply chain for developing wind or solar or, indeed, nuclear or anything else,” said Dieter Helm, a professor of economic policy at the University of Oxford.

Such shortcomings have already been seen in the soaring costs plaguing Hinkley Point, the first nuclear power station that Britain has tried to build in decades.

A rush to build renewable energy sources could push up costs, which might then be passed on to consumers. “If cost is no object, that’s great,” said David Reiner, who teaches energy policy at the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge, adding that Labour’s goals might be achievable with an increase in electric bills.

“Investors need a commitment from the British government to keep the offshore wind industry growing,..

Said Andy Sykes, the Siemens Gamesa plant manager.

The environment for building renewable energy projects has become much tougher since the coronavirus pandemic. According to industry estimates, the costs of developing an offshore wind farm — large ones run to billions of dollars — have risen 40 percent in recent years because of higher material and labor costs and interest rates.

An auction last year for government support produced no bids for offshore wind projects, and the industry said that the government’s electric power pricing targets were unrealistically low. Industry executives said the results of a new auction, expected to be announced in September, would be seen as a bellwether for the future British market.

Finally, there are risks that moving fast to curtail oil and gas production could cost more jobs around the North Sea, especially in Scotland and northeast England, than the ones green energy would create.

James Reid, an analyst at the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, forecast that production could fall 50 percent by the end of the decade if Labour’s fiscal proposals cause “people to turn the investment taps off.”

Highlighting the stakes: Around 200,000 North Sea energy jobs are linked to oil and gas, but just 34,000 are linked to renewables, estimated Paul de Leeuw, the director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, Britain’s oil center. “It is scary and a real call to action,” he said.

Mr. de Leeuw said that renewable energy could compensate for a lot of jobs expected to be lost in the oil industry, but the pace of building new projects needed to be much faster, “not an easy thing to do,” he said.

Oil workers are alarmed at the threat to their own jobs and skeptical about finding alternatives in renewable energy or elsewhere. Unite, one of the largest unions in Britain, and usually a key supporter of the Labour Party, has even organized small protests in Aberdeen against Mr. Starmer’s planned curbs on the oil industry.

“The lads don’t see any other option apart from the oil and gas industry,” said Kyle Griffiths, a union official who cleans and paints oil tanks on an offshore platform.

To help stimulate investment, Mr. Starmer has promised to set up a government company called Great British Energy, with headquarters in Scotland, to fund new renewable initiatives like mounting turbines on floating platforms.

The 8.3 billion pounds that Mr. Starmer intends to put into the new company over five years is relatively small, but its impact could be multiplied through partnerships and loans.

“We’ve got lots of projects we could partner with them on,” said Alistair Phillips-Davies, the chief executive of SSE, a utility based in Scotland that is one of Britain’s largest green energy developers.fshore wind site in Britain — a blade factory and test center operated by Vestas, the Danish turbine maker, on the Isle of Wight.

“Unrivaled wind installation programs in the U.K. have mainly benefited producers in neighboring European countries, notably Germany and Denmark,” Simone Gasperin and Joshua Emden wrote in a study that was recently published by the Institute for Public Policy Research.

While the Hull plant may be controlled by a foreign company and producing blades designed elsewhere, it is at least supporting relatively well-paid jobs in an area that could use them. When the company was staffing up a decade ago, it received 28,000 applications, Mr. Sykes said.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

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China, struggling to make use of a boom in energy storage, calls for even more…

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Manuel Cabral Aguado Bejarano
"La Reyerta" ("The Brawl")
1850
Oil on canvas
60 x 74.5 cm
CTB.1998.4
© Carmen Thyssen-Bornemisza Collection on free loan to the Carmen Thyssen Museum in Málaga.

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Happy Sabbath to all! May this day bring joy, peace, and blessings to everyone…

The current geopolitical landscape suggests that President Vladimir Putin occupies a dominant position. Marine Le Pen's significant victory in France has been linked to substantial financial support from the Kremlin. The Labor Party's overwhelming victory in England, coupled with Germany's weakened state, has changed the political dynamics in Europe. Additionally, with the US election process underway, forecasts indicate a potential re-election of former President Donald Trump in November. Should these predictions come to pass, they could herald the end of the war in Ukraine. President Putin demonstrated his political savvy by announcing an upcoming visit by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow. The visit is expected to address concerns about India's alignment with Western interests and its distancing from Moscow, which could cede influence to China in Latin America and Africa. While the visit's dates have not yet been confirmed, both countries have acknowledged it, and Indian media speculate that Modi's visit might align with a NATO summit in Washington. The summit takes place amid heightened scrutiny of President Joe Biden's cognitive abilities, fueled by a New Yorker article that discusses the potential invocation of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. In an interview with Tucker Carlson on February 8, President Putin addressed a critical question, further shaping the international dialogue. A few hours ago, Spain triumphed over Germany in the Euro Cup with a last-minute goal during extra time, concluding the match with a final score of 2-1. Qué viva España…. The recent victory of Spain evokes the 1850 painting by Manuel Cabral Aguado Bejarano, titled 'La Reyerta' ("The Brawl") depicting a chaotic brawl in an Andalusian inn, filled with various characters in violent confrontation. At the heart of a spacious, yet plainly adorned room, a man with his left arm in a sling defends himself against an adversary, weapon in hand, ready to strike. Around them, the scene intensifies: to the left, a man hoists a guitar high, poised to hit another figure on the floor, while a woman weeps beside a gravely wounded person. Meanwhile, a gentleman hastens down a staircase, apparently escaping the conflict with a partner. Above, another individual seems prepared to step into the fray with a gun. Indeed, it is the mad and cruel world we inhabit... and it warns us that we are very close to another Yalta II Agreement... Moreover, the shift from El Niño to La Niña, along with Hurricane Beryl, has led to extensive damage and a rise in poverty, impacting the electricity sector. Further details can be found in the New York Times article titled "How Future Hurricanes Could Stress Power Grids of U.S. Cities," featured in this edition. Wishing myself a good night and a good morning to everyone else.

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Artwork by Germán & Co

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“The cost of batteries going down made energy storage more affordable in China. Peak-valley pricing allows selling stored energy for more money when demand is high, boosting the use of storage tech like batteries and pumped hydro storage.

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China is leading the energy transition with the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. The country's energy sector has traditionally relied heavily on fossil fuels, especially coal, which accounts for over 90% of its greenhouse gas emissions. To attain carbon neutrality, China needs to hasten the shift towards low-carbon energy and promote the adoption of clean energy technologies such as solar power, heat pumps, and electric vehicles, especially in rural areas.

Renewable energy sources like wind and solar photovoltaic are anticipated to increase sevenfold by 2060, with renewables expected to constitute nearly 80% of China's power generation mix. This transition will be supported by innovative technologies like hydrogen and carbon capture, demonstrating China's progressive stance on energy transformation.

The decreasing cost of batteries has made energy storage more economically viable in China. The implementation of peak-valley pricing allows providers to sell stored energy during high-demand periods when prices are higher, thus encouraging the use of storage technologies, including battery and pumped hydro storage. This is particularly evident in coastal provinces such as Guangdong.

While pumped hydro storage is a mature technology in China and has a larger capacity than battery storage, it is limited by geographical factors and longer development times.

China's dedication to the energy transition offers economic opportunities, geopolitical benefits, and addresses urgent environmental issues. Realizing carbon neutrality will necessitate extensive reforms, advanced technologies, and significant financial investments, presenting considerable economic opportunities and growth potential.

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“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1809494142642180408

---

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

---

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

---

---

 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”

―Antoine De Saint-Exupery

“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

---

Electrical pylons and power lines stand in the Yanqing district of Beijing, China..  Workart by Germán & Co. 

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Reuters by Colleen Howe, Beijing, July 5, 2024.

Rows of what look like thin, white shipping containers are lined up on a barren dirt field in China's Shandong province.

Filled with batteries, they form a 795 megawatt (MW) plant that can hold up to 1 million kilowatt-hours of electricity - enough to power 150,000 households for a day, making it China's largest such storage facility when it was connected to the grid last Saturday.

Built by Lijin County Jinhui New Energy Co, the project is part of an explosion in development of energy storage in China, which has called for even more investment in the sector to boost renewable electricity and ease grid bottlenecks.

While the state-led drive has provided a welcome spark for home-grown battery giants such as CATL (300750.SZ), opens new tab and BYD, some industry insiders and experts say pricing reforms and technology improvements are needed for a storage sector whose rapid growth has been plagued by low utilisation and losses for operators.

"Most of the players in this sector are trying to figure out how to make money," said Rystad Energy senior analyst Simeng Deng.

Investment in grid-connected batteries in China surged 364% last year to 75 billion yuan ($11 billion), according to Carbon Brief, creating by far the world's largest storage fleet at 35.3 GW as of March.

In May, China set a new target of at least 40GW of battery storage installed by the end of 2025, up 33% from the previous goal under a wider plan to reduce carbon emissions.

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REUTERS GRAPHIC

Reuters Graphics

Storage is critical to help balance supply and demand when wind and solar farms produce more renewable electricity than the grid's distribution system can handle, or when a lack of sun or wind means they are generating too little power.

To meet Beijing's targets, local governments have required renewable energy plants to build storage, driving rapid capacity growth.

However, highly regulated power markets have struggled to incentivise usage, particularly at solar and wind facilities, leading China's cabinet to call for research into improving price mechanisms.

Energy storage at renewables plants operated just 2.18 hours a day last year, while independent facilities operated only 2.61 hours per day, according to the China Electricity Council. By comparison, storage at industrial and commercial plants operated 14.25 hours per day.

Policy mandates requiring renewables plants to install storage have failed because they add to project costs and often sit idle, said Cosimo Ries, an analyst at Trivium China.

"Because power prices are not flexible enough during different hours, these projects just can't really make money," Ries said.

BIG BUILD:

The stakes are high for China, which leads the world in adoption of energy transition technology, and for its battery giants, which are seeing faster growth in batteries for storage than for cars as electric vehicle sales growth slows.

While government mandates are a key driver of China's storage boom, big power users such as industrial parks and EV charging stations are also driving adoption. China, where 60% of the world's electric vehicles are sold, has worried about the effects of EVs on its power grid, and storage can help smooth demand spikes.

Falling battery prices are improving the economics of storage in China, with costs for batteries used in standard energy storage down by about a fifth between the end of 2023 and mid-June, according to consultancy Shanghai Metals Market.

Also, expanding adoption of "peak-valley pricing", which discourages electricity use during peak demand times by raising prices, gives storage providers more chance to profit by selling stored power when they can charge more.

That has led to intraday price differentials of up to 0.9 yuan per kwh in coastal provinces like Guangdong, where the peak price of 1.1868 yuan/kwh is more than four times the low, enough to incentivise use of both battery and pumped hydro storage, said Alex Whitworth, head of Asia Pacific power research at Wood Mackenzie.

Pumped hydro is an established technology with more than 60% greater capacity than battery storage in China, but with geographical limitations and long lead times.

Investor returns on solar-plus-storage projects are also improving as solar module prices fall, making renewables-plus-storage "financially feasible in most parts of China" with internal rates of return meeting the minimum investment hurdle rate of at least 8%, wrote Pierre Lau, a Citi analyst.

Further market reform is needed to incentivise battery storage, industry players say, with storage operators calling for wider use of capacity payments similar to those meant to keep struggling coal plants online, with costs shouldered by customers.

BETTER BATTERIES:

Battery technology is also improving…

The vast new Shandong plant incorporates both lithium ion and vanadium redox flow batteries, according to a report by local state media. Vanadium is a newer technology that promises longer storage times and improved safety.

While the economics of lithium ion batteries are expected to improve, experts say most current technology is suitable for shorter storage durations of four hours or less, and some say it is best used in smaller-scale applications. Fire risk remains a concern, particularly with lower-quality batteries, experts say.

Emerging technologies such as thermal energy storage, redox flow batteries, and sodium ion batteries have shown promise for longer-duration storage but have higher up-front costs, with technology and supply chains that are less mature.

China is hedging its bets by increasing its pipeline of pumped hydro projects - which can take five to seven years to build - and encouraging demonstration projects in emerging technologies.

Reporting by Colleen Howe, additional reporting by Zhang Yan and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Lincoln Feast.

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Darkened streets in New Orleans after Hurricane Ida made landfall in Louisiana in 2021 and knocked out power supplies. Credit...Johnny Milano for The New York Times

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How Future Hurricanes Could Stress Power Grids of U.S. cities…

A new analysis shows increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes could cause more devastating interruptions to the power grid.

The New York Times, authored by Austyn Gaffney, July 5, 2024.

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The risk of hurricane-induced power outages could become 50 percent higher in some areas of the United States, including Puerto Rico, because of climate change in the coming decades, according to a new analysis.

Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Electric Power Research Institute mapped how future hurricanes could affect power supplies, allowing residents to see how vulnerable their electricity is.

The research comes just after Hurricane Beryl broke records as the earliest Category 4 and 5 storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm flattened islands in the Caribbean, killed at least eight people and left vulnerable island communities in shambles. On Friday, it made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula and its projected path suggests it could hit northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast of Texas this weekend.

“These hurricanes can cause really devastating power outages,” said Julian Rice, a data scientist at the national laboratory who helped develop the map. Those outages can have subsequent effects, he said, like reducing access to health care and cutting off power used to heat and cool homes.

The researchers used computer s to model almost one million hurricanes under simulated climate scenarios. The models projected factors like humidity, wind and sea surface temperatures under various potential global warming situations between 2066 and 2100.

The Pacific Northwest team then partnered with the power research institute, a nonprofit group focused on electricity research, to pair these mock hurricanes with a power outage model that trained on outage data from 23 hurricanes that affected the United States over the last decade.

The projections suggest that increasingly stronger and wetter storms, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, will make landfall more frequently and push further inland, with tangible effects on the grid. In these scenarios, increased rainfall clogs soil and weighs down tree canopies. Trees can easily uproot or become unstable, falling on power lines or causing landslides that knock out electric infrastructure.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal areas are predicted to see the zone of potential climate-driven storms and hurricanes shift upward, exposing them more often to the risk of outages. The average person in the metropolitan areas of Boston, Houston and New Orleans could see expected outage events increase more than 70 percent per decade, the analysis found. In Tampa, it’s even higher, and in Miami, residents could see a 119 percent increase.

Hurricanes get a lot of attention from utility companies along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, said Andrea Staid, research leader in energy systems and climate analysis at the Electric Power Research Institute, who helped author the study.

But the analysis could help energy companies plan future improvements, she said. “It motivates them even more because it shows what can happen if we don’t adapt,” Dr. Staid said, “if we don’t take climate considerations into account when planning our energy system.”

Over the last decade, the number of weather-related power outages has almost doubled, according to Climate Central. Most major power outages between 2000 and 2023 were caused by extreme weather, and 14 percent of those were caused by tropical cyclones and hurricanes.

Some of the counties with the highest risk for more frequent power outages — like Broward County, Fla., Wilkinson County, Miss., and Hyde County, N.C. — also have the highest levels of social vulnerability, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Those counties have demographic and social-economic factors, like poverty and lack of transportation access, that can adversely affect communities that face natural disasters.

Joan Casey, an associate professor of public health at the University of Washington, said power outages amplify risk for people with underlying health conditions. Lack of power can quickly take people that are vulnerable, such as those who use electricity-dependent respirators, from relative safety to a dangerous situation.

The map has limitations. Researchers used the worst-case future climate scenario projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and considered a static infrastructure grid without factoring in potential changes that could harden the power system, like burying lines underground, strengthening poles, or installing community-scale solar.

But Karthik Balaguru, a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researcher and co-creator of the map, pointed out that while it’s a worst-case model, some research suggests that we’re trekking closer to this model than any other by midcentury.

And hurricanes aren’t the only risk. Last week, a report from the Union of Concerned Scientists found that by 2050, a different climate risk, sea level rise, could expose more than 1,600 critical buildings and services to flooding twice a year, including more than 150 electrical substations.

“It’s a wake-up call that we need to be addressing our power system and making it much more reliable and much more resilient to climate related stresses,” said Kristina Dahl, a principal climate scientist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists and a co-author of the report.

Dr. Casey said we could now take important steps to invest in our grid, particularly with solar and battery storage that can provide community-scale power. But that won’t be enough.

“We have to stop burning fossil fuels,” said Dr. Casey. “That’s pretty much the answer.”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

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The energy sector is currently grappling with a unique challenge referred to as the "unwelcome bid."

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Germán & Co workart image.

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“Human life is so fleeting, and old age can be harsh on our brains. Some substances have been developed to slow cognitive decline, but we still can't escape the inevitability of our vital cycle.

Today, Time magazine published an article titled "Here's How Biden Can Bounce Back From the Disastrous Presidential Debate," while the New York Times suggests that the president, who holds veto power, may be retiring from his long political career. In the face of the complex and rapidly changing world we live in, this decision may be coming a bit too late…

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Source: Juliet - Le Monde Diplomatique

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'Anti-access/area denial': the Mediterranean sees an increase in restricted areas as tensions escalate. Nations assert their dominance in the Mediterranean. Socrates likened the inhabitants of the Mediterranean to 'frogs around a pond'. However, the once peaceful coexistence is now under threat as countries assert their territorial claims…

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The price of wind generation is bouncing back. / Image: Germán & Co

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“Finance ministries may initially rejoice at the prospect of short-term gains; however, such actions could ultimately result in a surge of long-term costs that burden society…

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Germany and the Netherlands have recently allocated 6.5 GW of new offshore wind projects through auctions. While this may seem optimistic at first glance, a notable issue has arisen: negative bidding. This development has placed considerable pressure on offshore wind developers. The following overview provides an insight into the current situation.

Negative Bidding and Contract for Difference (CfD) Auctions:

In the context of negative bidding, developers of wind farms submit bids indicating the amount they are willing to pay for the opportunity to construct a wind farm. A higher bid increases their likelihood of success.

Meanwhile, the focus is on Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions in various European regions, such as the EU. In this process, developers compete by bidding on the revenue they anticipate requiring, with the winning bid being the one with the lowest value. Upon winning, their revenue becomes linked to the agreed-upon strike price. Negative bidding substantially increases the expenses associated with establishing an offshore wind farm. Ultimately, developers transfer these costs to either the supply chain or consumers, intensifying the urgency surrounding the situation.

Germany has allocated 2.5 GW, while the Netherlands has allocated 4 GW. SSE Renewables from the UK and Dutch pension funds are investing €40 million in developing a 2 GW site, whereas Vattenfall and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners are investing €800 million in another 2 GW site. These expenses, resulting directly from negative bidding, impact the wind energy supply chain and consumers and raise significant long-term societal concerns. This situation provides a compelling rationale for immediate action.

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“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…

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"Le Monde Diplomatique reports that in the month of July, our turbulent world remains ensnared in chaos... and the warning from numerous disreputable world leaders is that censorship has returned with a vengeance...

“French politics: it’s come to this; Macron’s foreign policy misadventures, the rise and rise of France’s far right; UK, the hard work ahead for Britain’s next prime minister; why sanctions on Russia didn’t bite; a second term, what will Ursula do next? Israel faces international law over Gaza; Armenia, Gaza and the ironies of history; the UN, Antonio Guterres prepares a Summit of the Future; Taliban struggle to meet Afghans’ needs; Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s cultural takeover; media, rise of the content farm; here come the citizen journalists …

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”

―Antoine De Saint-Exupery

“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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Workart by Germán & Co. creates functional and creative artistic pieces to enhance any space.

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Negative Bidding Continues to Burden Offshore Wind Development

WindInsider.com by S.R.C. Roy, June 27, 2024.

Germany and the Netherlands have recently awarded 6.5 GW of new offshore wind projects. Germany awarded 2.5 GW and the Netherlands 4 GW. To put this in context the EU has 19 GW of offshore wind in operation.

The auctions in both countries used negative bidding, where wind farm developers bid the amount of money they’re ready to pay for the right to build a wind farm – and the higher the price you bid the more likely you are to win. Most other countries in Europe use Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions where developers bid the amount of revenue they think they need, and the lowest bid wins.

If you win a negative bidding auction your revenue will be whatever is the wholesale market price of electricity. If you win a CfD auction your revenue will be whatever you bid in the auction, and if the market prices are higher than the agreed strike price, you pay the difference to the Government.

The negative bidding amounts are a straight add-on to the costs of developing an offshore wind farm. It’s extra money the developer has to pay which they don’t pay in a CfD auction. Project developers have to pass on these costs. Either to the wind energy supply chain which is still recovering from supply disruptions and cost increases. And/or to electricity consumers in the form of higher electricity prices.

Auction results…

The results of the latest German auction were:

• TotalEnergies will pay €1.958bn to develop the N-11.2 site which has a capacity of around 1.5 GW. So they’re paying €1.3m per MW.

• EnBW will pay €1.065bn to develop the roughly 1 GW N12.3 site. That’s €1.1m per MW.

The results of the latest Dutch auction were:

• UK-based SSE Renewables and the Dutch state pension fund APG and ABP will pay €40mn to develop the 2GW IJmuiden Ver Alpha site. That’s €20,000 per MW.

• Vattenfall and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners will pay €800mn to develop the 2GW IJmuiden Ver Beta site. That’s €400,000 per MW.

Germany and the Netherlands both used negative bidding in their previous offshore wind auctions already. The Netherlands previously applied a cap on the bids which equated to €70,000 per MW – their cap is higher now. Germany doesn’t apply a cap. The winners of their previous auction, BP and Total Energies, are paying €12.6bn for the right to develop 7 GW – which equates to €1.8m per MW.

Negative bidding also means higher financing costs than you get with wind farms that are awarded in a CfD auction. The latter have fixed revenue, so banks feel much more comfortable offering more debt finance. But projects awarded in a negative bidding auction have variable revenue – the market price of electricity. So they need to rely more on (more expensive) equity finance – though they can mitigate this by signing PPAs with offtakers.

“Negative bidding increases the costs of offshore wind. Costs that have to be passed on to consumers and the wind energy supply chain. It may be a short-term gain for finance ministries. But it’s a long-term cost for society”, says WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson.

Non-price criteria…

The Dutch auction made extensive use of non-price criteria. For the Alpha site these were about biodiversity protection. For the Beta site it was system integration. The winning bidders made significant commitments to invest in these respective areas. Vattenfall and CIP have among other things committed to build a 1 GW electrolyser facility in Rotterdam which will run on renewable electricity from the Beta site. And the Alpha wind farm is designed as a “living laboratory” – more than 75% of the wind turbines in the wind farm will have artificial reefs for muscles and other maritime animals.

“The Dutch auction shows the European wind industry has a great offering on ecology and system integration. “We are building new wind farms and creating lasting value for Europe’s environment and energy system”, says Giles Dickson.

The German auction used price criteria only.

What’s the money used for?

In Germany 90% of the money raised from negative bidding will be used to reduce the grid levies. The other 10% are used to support maritime biodiversity and sustainable fishing practices. OK. But building these wind farms requires a strengthening of Germany’s offshore wind supply chain and an expansion of port capacity. The German Government should consider putting some of the money into that as well.

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Cécile Marin's work

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Conflict and tension in the Mediterranean

by Philippe Leymarie and Cécile Marin's work in Le Monde Diplomatique covers a range of topics, including geopolitical conflicts, economic systems, and social issues, presented through detailed maps and analyses.

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The Mediterranean is less than 0.8% of the world’s ocean but a quarter of all global trade passes through it: it’s a vital short cut from the Atlantic (via the Strait of Gibraltar) to the Indian and Pacific oceans (via the Suez Canal and Red Sea) and the only way to reach the Black Sea (via the Bosphorus). And it’s crossed by submarine pipelines and cables that supply Europe with two thirds of its imported energy. Bordered by some 20 countries, it is in the words of French historian Fernand Braudel an ancient crossroads where ‘civilisations [are] superimposed one on top of the other’ (1). However, it’s also a site of tensions between countries to its north and south, and between Israelis and Palestinians, Shia and Sunni Muslims, Arabs and Africans.

Jean-Michel Martinet of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES) describes the Mediterranean as a source of crises amid ‘unprecedented and chaotic multipolarity’ and as ‘both a bridge and a buffer between two worlds: the countries on its northern shores – rich, postmodern and with ageing populations – and those on its southern shores – which face economic, demographic, social and political problems’ (2).

‘Once a shared space, the Mediterranean is now contested,’ French parliamentarians Jean-Jacques Ferrara and Philippe Michel-Kleisbauer wrote in a February 2022 report to the National Assembly (3), listing sources of tension: power strategies and rivalries (Russia, the West, China); anti-access/area denial (4) (Russia, Syria, Turkey); frozen conflicts that have flared up again (Cyprus, Western Sahara); and the continuing effects of Libya’s civil war in the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger).

Since the report, there are new factors: the war in Ukraine, taking place partly by the Black Sea; a fifth war in Gaza; Armenia losing territory; worsening food and energy insecurity. As FMES director Xavier Pasco put it at last November’s Strategic Mediterranean Dialogue (RSMed) in Toulon, ‘Problems are multi-layered, [feedback] loops are growing tighter, and conflicts are accelerating to the point of hysteria.’

The Mediterranean is bristling with aircraft, radar systems, anti-missile batteries, ships, submarines and drones, all increasing the risk of human error…

Retired French vice-admiral Pascal Ausseur says the Ukraine war is also a sign that peaceful cohabitation in the Mediterranean is breaking down. Meanwhile, Pasco highlights growing resentment and even hatred of Europeans in Africa and the Middle East, where they are seen as ‘warmongers who apply double standards to refugees and are responsible for the coming famine’. He believes Europe is losing an information war and needs to ‘counter harmful Russian, Chinese and Turkish narratives’. That might be easier without the extensive use of force and violations of international law: by the US in former Yugoslavia, Iraq and Afghanistan; China in the China Sea; Russia in Georgia and Ukraine; France and the UK in Libya; Azerbaijan in the Caucasus; and Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean.

Continuing disputes, growing conflicts

There are other risks too: the standoff between Greece and Turkey (Greece’s actions on some small islands (5) and seizure of Turkish gas exploration and drilling vessels; the long-running dispute over the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus); recent incidents between Israel and Iran (air strikes, skirmishes on land and at sea); Israel’s offensive against Hizbullah in Lebanon; possible destabilisation of the Egyptian and Tunisian governments; tensions between Morocco and Algeria over Western Sahara; the resumption of Libya’s civil war (a source of regional jihadism); sabotage and attacks on submarine cables and pipelines; use of migration as a political tool, as in Turkey; disputes over maritime boundaries.

Challenges to maritime boundaries are of special concern to countries on the northern shores of the Mediterranean, whose navies now find their movements restricted. The 1994 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) sanctioned the establishment of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) extending 200 nautical miles from the coast – a concession to coastal countries of the global South in particular, which hoped to benefit from their resources (6). It also guaranteed right of passage through EEZs, and even the right of passage of naval vessels through territorial waters (12 nautical miles) provided it was for innocent purposes.

This balance is under threat. Some countries bordering the Mediterranean are attempting to maximise their maritime space and restrict the rights of other countries within it. They are gradually giving their EEZs a political as well as economic status by adopting military ‘anti-access/area denial’ measures, introducing permit and toll systems, building offshore wind farms and oil drilling platforms, and creating marine protected areas. Major seafaring nations that have not signed UNCLOS are now attached to the EEZ compromise and keen to uphold it as ‘the law of the sea becomes a means of asserting control’, according to a wide-ranging study on the ‘territorialisation of maritime space’ (7).

In the western Mediterranean, Algeria has unilaterally asserted an EEZ that takes no account of Italy’s claims to the waters around Sardinia or Spain’s around the Balearics, while in the eastern Mediterranean, historic tensions, ambitions of regional domination and economic interests make the issue of maritime boundaries all the more sensitive. Jean-François Pelliard, a consultant with the FMES, describes a ‘creeping territorialisation’. Under its Blue Homeland doctrine, proclaimed in 2019, Turkey (which has not signed UNCLOS) claims a maritime jurisdiction area of 462,000 sq km under the Lausanne treaty with Greece, which requires the Aegean Sea to be open to both countries.

Turkey secures favourable deals

Turkey is disregarding the claims of Greece and Cyprus, both UNCLOS signatories, and gas exploration activities under the protection of the Turkish navy have led to a number of incidents. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan frequently threatens to invade Greek islands close to Turkey where Greece has established a military presence and deployed defence systems during exercises such as Operation Lightning (January 2023).

Turkey, the only country to recognise Northern Cyprus, feels disadvantaged. In 2022, in exchange for providing military support to the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity in Libya, it secured a bilateral agreement on maritime boundaries that is more favourable to its own interests but still ignores Greek and Cypriot claims.

In the southeastern Mediterranean, where major natural gas deposits have been discovered in recent years, an unhoped-for agreement in 2022 between Israel and Lebanon (officially at war) has resulted in Israel maintaining control of the Karish maritime block, while most of the Qana block is assigned to Lebanon and its output will be exploited by a consortium including TotalEnergies, Eni and QatarEnergy; Turkey was excluded from this arrangement.

Immigration is another source of tension. Most irregular immigration to the European Union is via the Mediterranean route, with 266,940 migrants and refugees crossing in 2023 (8). Italy’s rightwing government has restricted NGOs’ ability to rescue migrants at sea by keeping their vessels in port on a variety of pretexts, making this already dangerous route (3,105 migrants drowned in 2023) even more deadly. The EU is trying to slow the influx in various ways. Under a 2016 deal Turkey agreed to keep three to four million (mostly Syrian) refugees on its territory in return for a payment of at least €6bn, but in 2020 it opened its border, allowing some 20,000 refugees to try to cross into Greece, in response to EU criticism of its offensive against the Kurds in northern Syria (9).

In the southern Mediterranean, the EU is supporting the Libyan coastguard and trying to relaunch a programme to combat human trafficking. However, in November 2023, the leaders of the military coup in Niger repealed a law criminalising migrant smuggling on the grounds that it was passed in 2015 ‘under the influence of foreign powers’ (10), and Tunisian president Kais Saied has said that his country ‘will not be Europe’s border guard’ (Reuters, 10 June 2023).

France has decided to paint out the pennant numbers and names of its largest warships. With ‘high-intensity’ engagements increasingly likely, it hopes this will make them harder to identify as they patrol the Mediterranean; the French navy’s position is that ‘uncertainty over a vessel’s identity can be a tactical advantage’ (11). Western military chiefs believe a tipping point has been reached: ‘Disorder is increasing and the world order is being circumvented: we must be ready for the situation to deteriorate very rapidly,’ says Admiral Nicolas Vaujour, head of the French navy, pointing to an unprecedented deployment of naval forces in the Mediterranean. Hence his decision to step up training, which now includes broader missions conducted close to crisis hotspots (as there is almost daily contact with the Russian navy, these must ‘take care to avoid misunderstandings and errors’); and exercises to strengthen interoperability among allied navies ‘to the point where they become interchangeable’, as the head of the Italian navy (also busy strengthening its forces) puts it.

‘Militarise to assert sovereignty’

Countries all around the Mediterranean are strengthening their navies. Between 2008 and 2030, Israel plans to increase its warship tonnage by 160%, Egypt by 170%, Algeria by 120%, Morocco by 52% and Turkey by 33%. A strong navy symbolises strength and influence, as well as protecting a country’s interests and enforcing its claims. ‘You militarise to assert sovereignty,’ says Nicolas Mazzucchi of the French Navy Centre for Strategic Studies (CESM). So North African countries are investing in first-rate vessels such as frigates. Algeria, as a strategic partner of Russia, has armed its submarines with Russian Kalibr long-range cruise missiles; it also sources equipment from China. Its defence allocation – 13.8% of GDP in 2023 – is proportionally the world’s largest, mainly to send a message to neighbouring Morocco.

The Mediterranean is bristling with aircraft, radar systems, anti-missile batteries, ships, submarines and drones, all increasing the risk of human error. There is a growing potential for miscalculations, misinterpretations of data or provocations that can rapidly escalate, though such incidents are usually settled ‘in a professional manner’. Anti-access/area denial measures keep foreign navies in check, as they are always within range of missiles fired from land or sea. Attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on shipping in the Red Sea show that modern drones and missiles make it possible to ‘fight a naval battle without a navy’, as Ausseur puts it.

With Washington’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific in recent decades, the US Navy had reduced its strength in the Mediterranean and the role of NATO to some extent: French rear-admiral Jean-Emmanuel Roux de Luze, former naval attaché in Washington, recalls that in 2020 the Pentagon’s three top priorities were ‘China, China and China’. Nevertheless, the US still had a significant presence in the Mediterranean and the Gulf, with some 30 military bases, several fleets and considerable anti-missile capabilities. It continued to keep an eye on Israel, its protégé, on Iran, its principal adversary in the region, and on the shipping lanes used by giant container carriers heading to Europe. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, and especially since the start of the war in Gaza, the aircraft carriers have returned.

US support for Ukraine has increased the strategic importance of the eastern Mediterranean, dominated in recent years by Turkey, Russia and their allies. Washington has resumed its leadership of a reinvigorated NATO, which has a network of bases in the area: NATO’s naval headquarters is in Naples; US Navy frigates armed with Aegis missile defence systems are based in Rota, Spain; AWACS early warning and control aircraft operated by the US Air Force or directly by NATO fly from Sicily and Greece, which enables them to come close to Ukraine; NATO’s land forces are coordinated from Izmir, in Turkey. Though the Mediterranean is no longer a ‘NATO lake’, as it was during the cold war, it remains a useful location from which to monitor the major areas of friction between the Eurasian, Middle Eastern and African blocs.

Russia secures warm-water ports

The first country to fill the space left by the US in recent years was Russia, always in search of warm-water ports. Because of the war in Syria, it has been able to strengthen its presence in the eastern Mediterranean by securing the use of the Tartus (naval) and Khmeimim (air) bases, on the Syrian coast. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 seemed to have guaranteed its control of the naval base at Sebastopol on the Black Sea, and it had been turning the Azov Sea into an ‘internal lake’, but the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed everything. In two years, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has lost 20 ships and its movements are hindered by the fact that the 1936 Montreux Convention bans military vessels involved in a regional conflict from passing through the Bosphorus or the Dardanelles.

Russia has had to bolster its forces in the eastern Mediterranean with ships from its Baltic and Pacific fleets, and is struggling with long supply chains and the difficulty of maintaining often ageing equipment. Its network of bases and installations is insufficient for its geopolitical ambitions. Nevertheless, from their bases in Syria, the Russian navy and air force are able to restrict the freedom of maritime and aerial navigation in the eastern Mediterranean that the Western powers once enjoyed to a few tens of kilometres.

In recent years, China too has become involved in the Mediterranean. Increasingly seen as a ‘strategic competitor’ all over the world, its main concern is trade access: more than two thirds of its exports to Europe transit the Suez Canal

As a major regional player, Turkey’s strength lies in its strategic power (it controls access to the Black Sea), energy (it’s a hub in the supply of natural gas to Europe), geopolitics (it’s the only Asian member of NATO, whose southern flank it protects) and demographics (it has the Mediterranean area’s second-largest population (after Egypt) and has taken in millions of refugees, notably from Syria. While happy to harness anti-Western sentiment for domestic political ends, and refusing to apply international sanctions against Russia, Turkey feels free to do as it pleases because the US, EU and Russia all need it.

Turkey’s position in NATO has been strengthened by its role as mediator in the July 2022 agreement between Russia and Ukraine on the export of Ukrainian cereals by sea. It manufactures three quarters of its own weaponry, exports Bayraktar TB2 drones to some 15 countries including Ukraine, and has been able to buy the latest Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems (despite US opposition). The US, which removed Turkey from a list of potential buyers for F-35 fighter jets in response, is said to be reconsidering its position as a way of thanking Erdoğan for dropping his opposition to Sweden joining NATO.

Though not a Mediterranean country, Iran also plays an important role in the area because of its influence over Shia militias in Iraq, Hizbullah in Lebanon and Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen; and because of its involvement in the region’s Kurdish problem. Israel and Iran’s airstrikes on each other since 7 October have increased regional tensions.

Enter China, ‘strategic competitor’

In recent years, China too has become involved in the Mediterranean. Increasingly seen as a ‘strategic competitor’ all over the world, its main concern is trade access; more than two thirds of its exports to Europe transit the Suez Canal. As part of its part of its Belt and Road Initiative, it already has the use of a dozen interconnected port facilities around the Mediterranean, thanks to capital stakes held by the state-owned China Cosco Shipping Corporation Limited (COSCO Shipping) in Egypt (Port Said, Damietta), France (Marseille-Fos), Turkey (Ambarlı), Greece (Piraeus), Italy (Vado Ligure) and Spain (Valencia), soon to be joined by Algeria (El Hamdania), where China overtook France as largest trading partner in 2012.

China is also making its mark in the sizeable market for submarine cables across the Mediterranean. It has invested heavily in the western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia), anticipating their accession to the EU. The Chinese navy has had a base in Djibouti at the mouth of the Red Sea (the only one outside China) for the last five years, and is thought to be capable of deploying an entire fleet in the Mediterranean if needed. ‘The question is not if, but when,’ Vice-Admiral Hervé Bléjean, director-general of the EU’s military staff said in November 2022.

Over the next few decades, knowledge and mapping of the Mediterranean will advance considerably. Artificial intelligence, satellite networks and drones are likely to make exploiting its seabed resources profitable (12); for some European countries, access to the Gulf and its hydrocarbons will no longer be essential; global warming will open up Russia’s Northern Sea Route; the tipping of the strategic balance towards Asia will further focus the US’s attention on the Pacific and China, now the world’s largest naval power; dwindling fish stocks will cause tensions to grow; autonomous surveillance and detection systems coupled with laser weapons and batteries of hypersonic missiles will ensure security over large expanses of sea – and deny access to them…

In the short term (five to ten years), the FMES warns of a possible resumption of hostilities between Algeria and Morocco, with an incident in Western Sahara triggering a cascade of responses: Algeria declaring a naval embargo on Morocco, the EU supporting Morocco, and France’s already difficult relations with Algeria degenerating still further, with Algeria threatening to turn off the supply of gas (via Morocco) to Europe, imposing an anti-access/area denial zone using its Russian S-400 batteries or even Iskander cruise missiles, and halting traffic through the Gibraltar strait.

The FMES’s long-term scenario (20 years+) could include wars over maritime resources (fish stocks and seabed minerals); a gradual but complete appropriation of ‘economic zones’ by non-European countries – ‘an example of the de-Westernisation of international law’ – with restrictions imposed on navigation in the southern and eastern Mediterranean and the Black and Red seas; or even the formation of an anti-Western alliance in the eastern Mediterranean that would prevent warships from reaching the Indian and Pacific oceans via the Suez Canal, forcing them to sail around the Cape of Good Hope and requiring a rethink of networks of overseas bases.

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The article "TIME" is authored by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian, published on June 29, 2024, at 1:14 PM EDT. Sonnenfeld holds the position of Lester Crown Professor of Management Practice at Yale, presides as the President of the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, and is noted for his works "The Hero’s Farewell" and "Firing Back." Steven Tian serves as the research director at the same institute.

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Coming off what was widely regarded as a disastrous debate performance, President Joe Biden, 81, faces a growing chorus of calls for him to step aside. Biden typically recoils from any criticism related to his age, but the urgent crisis he faces has become too pressing for him to ignore. However, all is not lost yet for Biden. The path forward is not easy, but there is still time for him to clear the air, with convincing explanations building off his track record of turning failures into demonstrated resilience.

Here are the three possible pathways for how Biden can move forward from his catastrophic debate performance and salvage his standing.

Biden could operate as though it’s business as usual

Unfortunately, this seems to have become the default option for many leading Democratic apparatchiks ranging from Gavin Newsom and John Fetterman to Kamala Harris. It was sad to see credible people taking an incredible position and backing Biden directly after that debate on Thursday. Newsom ludicrously claimed, “I am very proud of the President,” while Fetterman ripped Biden critics as “vultures” and advised them to “chill the f-ck out.”

Many Democrats likely fear incurring the wrath of Biden, who is notoriously prickly about his age. And sure, these Biden supporters can point out that the debate was only one night and that Biden’s three-and-a-half years of accomplishments should matter more—but the American people cannot and will not simply write off such a historically bad debate performance. 

The Trumpian denial of reality among these “business as usual” types leans towards political malpractice. In defaulting to what they view as the safest answers, these Dems are actually doing a massive disservice to their own cause and risk destroying their own credibility. 

Biden could head out on the road and prove his fitness to govern in front of voters across America

Instead of avoiding the issue, or hiding behind layers of overly protective staff in the White House, Biden can tackle it head-on with a proactive, forceful demonstration of his own fitness to govern. While speculation swirls about whether Biden should step down, there is no better way for Biden to silence the critics than to show beyond a shadow of doubt that he remains on top of his game and that the debate catastrophe was a one-time aberration, not the norm. But time is of the essence here.

Painful as it may be, Biden should own up to a poor debate and candidly admit why that was. Putting aside his age, what caused this? Was he having a bad reaction to cold medication? Did an overanxious debate prep team overcoach him? Was he overwhelmed with obscure facts and figures instead of being encouraged to be himself?

Already, Biden appears to be confronting matters head-on. At a rally in North Carolina on Friday, Biden addressed his poor debate performance as well as the issue of his age with more self-awareness than ever before.

“I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious… I know. Folks, I know I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know,” the President said to a cheering crowd. “I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. I know that when you get knocked down, you get back up.”

But to restore his credibility in the eyes of the public, Biden has to do not just staged pep rallies with friendly reverential audiences, but engage urgently in genuine unscripted, responsive exchanges with independent media and outside key opinion leaders. 

Biden sat down with TIME for a cover story published in early June, but it’s rare to get such direct access to this particular President. It’s long been a topic of discussion how Biden gives less media interviews than his predecessors. This isolation has never served Biden well; but now, it is especially vital that he reach out to key donors, political allies, and other influencers across civil society to re-establish his standing and to re-engage journalists.

Biden has every opportunity now to fortify his credibility in the eyes of the American public, and there should be no premature rush to judgment—a point made by varied voices ranging from former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe to lifelong Republican Mark Cuban. Already, key Democratic Party heavyweights such as former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have come out with statements of support meant to help tide Biden over for the time being—but the ultimate judge will be the American people. And there are signs the people will be far less judgmental than the media commentator class, with Biden surprisingly up 1% after the debate.

Biden could make the change many are calling for 

The Biden many Americans saw during the debate is not the Biden I [Sonnenfeld] have known for five decades. In fact, I spoke briefly with the President last month at a Greenwich fundraiser, and I had no inkling that anything was off in the slightest. Having known Biden for so long, and having admired his great presidency, it pains me to say this but after the debate disaster, the onus is on Biden now to prove his fitness to govern in the eyes of the public. If he fails at this, he should step aside before the choice is made for him by the American people at the ballot box in November, as many prominent voices ranging from the New York Times Editorial Board to AMC Theatres CEO Adam Aron have called for.

Despite the anxious clamoring of top donors, operatives and others, the path to replacing Biden on the ballot is fraught with difficulties. First, and most obviously, there is no evidence Biden is eager to step aside, no matter what anyone else says about him. 

For Biden to even remotely consider stepping down voluntarily, it could very well fall to such senior party leaders as the Clintons, Obama, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Rep. Jim Clyburn, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to try to convince him. And even then, it seems highly unlikely.

Even if Biden did voluntarily step aside, and release his pledged delegates for an open convention; the nomination process in such a rushed contest may prove to be so divisive that the party could be worse off. It’s also worth pointing out there is no clear frontrunner, with Vice President Kamala Harris trailing Trump in polls far worse than Biden.

While rising stars such as Jeffries or Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer look like appealing choices, and could be a unifying dream team, they come with their own drawbacks too, and it would be unprecedented for a novice presidential candidate to build out a fully-fledged campaign infrastructure this late in the game. But these obstacles may prove to be the lesser-of-evils choice if Biden cannot prove once and for all that he is still fit to be President.

Biden should be given every opportunity now to rebound from the debate and show he is fit to govern. Should he fail to do so, only then will it be time for him to step aside.

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On 6 October 1981, Anwar Sadat, the 3rd President of Egypt, was assassinated during the annual victory parade held in Cairo to celebrate Operation Badr, during which the Egyptian Army had crossed the Suez Canal and taken back the Sinai Peninsula from Israel at the beginning of the Yom Kippur War.[1] The assassination was undertaken by members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Although the motive has been debated, Sadat's assassination likely stemmed from Arab nationalists who opposed Sadat's peace initiative with Israel and the United States relating to the Camp David Accords.

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The Common Good…

Initially published by Stanford University on Monday, February 26, 2018.

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In ordinary political discourse, the “common good” refers to those facilities—whether material, cultural or institutional—that the members of a community provide to all members in order to fulfill a relational obligation they all have to care for certain interests that they have in common. Some canonical examples of the common good in a modern liberal democracy include: the road system; public parks; police protection and public safety; courts and the judicial system; public schools; museums and cultural institutions; public transportation; civil liberties, such as the freedom of speech and the freedom of association; the system of property; clean air and clean water; and national defense. The term itself may refer either to the interests that members have in common or to the facilities that serve common interests. For example, people may say, “the new public library will serve the common good” or “the public library is part of the common good”.

As a philosophical concept, the common good is best understood as part of an encompassing model for practical reasoning among the members of a political community. The model takes for granted that citizens stand in a “political” or “civic” relationship with one another and that this relationship requires them to create and maintain certain facilities on the grounds that these facilities serve certain common interests. The relevant facilities and interests together constitute the common good and serve as a shared standpoint for political deliberation.[1] When citizens face various questions about legislation, public policy or social responsibility, they resolve these questions by appeal to a conception of the relevant facilities and the relevant interests. That is, they argue about what facilities have a special claim on their attention, how they should expand, contract or maintain existing facilities, and what facilities they should design and build in the future.

The common good is an important concept in political philosophy because it plays a central role in philosophical reflection about the public and private dimensions of social life. Let’s say that “public life” in a political community consists of a shared effort among members to maintain certain facilities for the sake of common interests. “Private life” consists of each member’s pursuit of a distinct set of personal projects. As members of a political community, we are each involved in our community’s public life and in our own private lives, and this raises an array of questions about the nature and scope of each of these enterprises. For example, when are we supposed to make decisions based on the common good? Most of us would agree that we are required to do so when we act as legislators or civil servants. But what about as journalists, corporate executives or consumers? More fundamentally, why should we care about the common good? What would be wrong with a community whose members withdraw from public life and focus exclusively on their own private lives? These are some of the questions that motivate philosophical discussions of the common good.

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To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race… (NYT By The Editorial Board)

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“The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

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"BLOGGING IS HARD WORK, BUT IT'S INCREDIBLY REWARDING WHEN YOU RECEIVE A "LIKE" OR A "RETWEET." FOR THE PAST WEEK, ON "X", ACTIONS LIKE "LIKING" OR "RETWEETING" A POST HAVE BEEN MADE CONFIDENTIAL. THESE SIMPLE GESTURES REMAIN COMPLETELY FREE OF ANY CHARGE AND OFFERING TREMENDOUS SUPPORT TO US, WE APPRECIATE YOUR SOLIDARITY IN ADVANCE...

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1806846156816646531

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

---

Workart by Germán & Co. creates functional and creative artistic pieces to enhance any space.

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NYT; NY; NOW

President Biden has repeatedly and rightfully described the stakes in this November’s presidential election as nothing less than the future of American democracy.

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Donald Trump has proved himself to be a significant jeopardy to that democracy — an erratic and self-interested figure unworthy of the public trust. He systematically attempted to undermine the integrity of elections. His supporters have described, publicly, a 2025 agenda that would give him the power to carry out the most extreme of his promises and threats. If he is returned to office, he has vowed to be a different kind of president, unrestrained by the checks on power built into the American political system.

Mr. Biden has said that he is the candidate with the best chance of taking on this threat of tyranny and defeating it. His argument rests largely on the fact that he beat Mr. Trump in 2020. That is no longer a sufficient rationale for why Mr. Biden should be the Democratic nominee this year.

At Thursday’s debate, the president needed to convince the American public that he was equal to the formidable demands of the office he is seeking to hold for another term. Voters, however, cannot be expected to ignore what was instead plain to see: Mr. Biden is not the man he was four years ago.

The president appeared on Thursday night as the shadow of a great public servant. He struggled to explain what he would accomplish in a second term. He struggled to respond to Mr. Trump’s provocations. He struggled to hold Mr. Trump accountable for his lies, his failures and his chilling plans. More than once, he struggled to make it to the end of a sentence.

Mr. Biden has been an admirable president. Under his leadership, the nation has prospered and begun to address a range of long-term challenges, and the wounds ripped open by Mr. Trump have begun to heal. But the greatest public service Mr. Biden can now perform is to announce that he will not continue to run for re-election.

As it stands, the president is engaged in a reckless gamble. There are Democratic leaders better equipped to present clear, compelling and energetic alternatives to a second Trump presidency. There is no reason for the party to risk the stability and security of the country by forcing voters to choose between Mr. Trump’s deficiencies and those of Mr. Biden. It’s too big a bet to simply hope Americans will overlook or discount Mr. Biden’s age and infirmity that they see with their own eyes.

If the race comes down to a choice between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, the sitting president would be this board’s unequivocal pick. That is how much of a danger Mr. Trump poses. But given that very danger, the stakes for the country and the uneven abilities of Mr. Biden, the United States needs a stronger opponent to the presumptive Republican nominee. To make a call for a new Democratic nominee this late in a campaign is a decision not taken lightly, but it reflects the scale and seriousness of Mr. Trump’s challenge to the values and institutions of this country and the inadequacy of Mr. Biden to confront him.

Ending his candidacy would be against all of Mr. Biden’s personal and political instincts. He has picked himself up from tragedies and setbacks in the past and clearly believes he can do so again. Supporters of the president are already explaining away Thursday’s debate as one data point compared with three years of accomplishments. But the president’s performance cannot be written off as a bad night or blamed on a supposed cold, because it affirmed concerns that have been mounting for months or even years. Even when Mr. Biden tried to lay out his policy proposals, he stumbled. It cannot be outweighed by other public appearances because he has limited and carefully controlled his public appearances.

It should be remembered that Mr. Biden challenged Mr. Trump to this verbal duel. He set the rules, and he insisted on a date months earlier than any previous general election debate. He understood that he needed to address longstanding public concerns about his mental acuity and that he needed to do so as soon as possible.

The truth Mr. Biden needs to confront now is that he failed his own test.

In polls and interviews, voters say they are seeking fresh voices to take on Mr. Trump. And the consolation for Mr. Biden and his supporters is that there is still time to rally behind a different candidate. While Americans are conditioned to the long slog of multiyear presidential elections, in many democracies, campaigns are staged in the space of a few months.

It is a tragedy that Republicans themselves are not engaged in deeper soul-searching after Thursday’s debate. Mr. Trump’s own performance ought to be regarded as disqualifying. He lied brazenly and repeatedly about his own actions, his record as president and his opponent. He described plans that would harm the American economy, undermine civil liberties and fray America’s relationships with other nations. He refused to promise that he would accept defeat, returning instead to the kind of rhetoric that incited the Jan. 6 attack on Congress.

The Republican Party, however, has been co-opted by Mr. Trump’s ambitions. The burden rests on the Democratic Party to put the interests of the nation above the ambitions of a single man.

Democrats who have deferred to Mr. Biden must now find the courage to speak plain truths to the party’s leader. The confidantes and aides who have encouraged the president’s candidacy, and who sheltered him from unscripted appearances in public, should recognize the damage to Mr. Biden’s standing and the unlikelihood that he can repair it.

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The image is credited to Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Mr. Biden answered an urgent question on Thursday night. It was not the answer that he and his supporters were hoping for. But if the risk of a second Trump term is as great as he says it is — and we agree with him that the danger is enormous — then his dedication to this country leaves him and his party only one choice.

The clearest path for Democrats to defeat a candidate defined by his lies is to deal truthfully with the American public: acknowledge that Mr. Biden can’t continue his race, and create a process to select someone more capable to stand in his place to defeat Mr. Trump in November.

It is the best chance to protect the soul of the nation — the cause that drew Mr. Biden to run for the presidency in 2019 — from the malign warping of Mr. Trump. And it is the best service that Mr. Biden can provide to a country that he has nobly served for so long.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, WhatsApp, X and Threads.

The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom. 

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Biden Wants to Be Tough With Russia and Iran—but Wants Low Gas Prices Too…

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“Softer-than-expected sanctions on major oil producers frustrate some Treasury Department staffers…

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"BLOGGING IS HARD WORK, BUT IT'S INCREDIBLY REWARDING WHEN YOU RECEIVE A "LIKE" OR A "RETWEET." FOR THE PAST WEEK, ON "X", ACTIONS LIKE "LIKING" OR "RETWEETING" A POST HAVE BEEN MADE CONFIDENTIAL. THESE SIMPLE GESTURES REMAIN COMPLETELY FREE OF ANY CHARGE AND OFFERING TREMENDOUS SUPPORT TO US, WE APPRECIATE YOUR SOLIDARITY IN ADVANCE...

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1806252470038904841

---

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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---

 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

---

Workart by Germán & Co. creates functional and creative artistic pieces to enhance any space.

---

Treasury Department sanctions against Russia this month left the country’s oil industry largely untouched.

The Wall Street Journal article by Anna Hirtenstein, Joe Wallace, Ian Talley, and Costas Paris, dated June 26, 2024, provides insights into current events.

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The Biden administration wants to keep gas prices stable ahead of the election by encouraging oil to flow into global markets. The effort has run square into another priority: being tough on adversaries Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

The policy has led to softer-than-expected sanctions on major oil producers, according to diplomats, former government officials and energy-industry players briefed by current officials.

A case in point arrived on Tuesday, when the U.S. levied fresh sanctions against Iran. The measures affect a fraction of the country’s oil exports and are unlikely to gum up global markets, analysts said.

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Monthly crude exports by sanctioned producers:

Note: Data cover exports by sea

Source: Kpler

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Discount on price of Russian crude:

Note: The disparity between Urals crude prices and the Brent benchmark, alongside the Russia-Iran-Venezuela axis, in 2023 is '240.510.152.025, amounting to 30 million metric tons.
U.S. steps up​enforcement Sanctions take​ effect2023'24-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-$10a barrel                                                               Source: Argus Media 

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The image is credited to Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

“The president has wanted to do everything that he could to make sure that American consumers have the lowest price possible at the pump, as it affects families’ daily lives,” said a senior administration official.

Though tensions between Iran and the U.S. have ratcheted up since the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel by Tehran-backed Hamas, exports from Iran surpassed 1.5 million barrels a day this year starting in February, substantially more than at the start of the Biden presidency. Most of that oil is bought by small Chinese refineries at discounted prices.

The U.S. and its allies have been “very, very careful not to go too far and damage the ability of Western economies to function,” when it comes to sanctions, said John Smith, partner at Morrison Foerster and former head of the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

U.S. diplomats and energy officials have for decades worked around the globe to keep oil flowing, often involving uncomfortable alliances and accommodations.

When the Treasury department hit Moscow with a wave of sanctions on June 12 over the Ukraine war, it targeted banks but left the country’s oil industry largely untouched.

The White House says President Biden wants to ensure U.S. consumers have the lowest possible gas prices.

There is frustration among some staffers in the U.S. Treasury Department over the lack of action against oil-trading networks that ferry Russian and Iranian oil, including one that officials are currently investigating, according to U.S. diplomats and some of the energy-industry players briefed by current officials.

The network is operated by a little-known trader from Azerbaijan who emerged as the premier middleman for Russia’s Rosneft Oil, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Supporters of the policy within the administration said the moves are finely balanced to keep prices low, but throw sand in the gears of Russia and Iran’s oil export machines, meaning they earn less from each barrel of oil they sell.

“Our two goals, which are lowering costs for the American people and lowering profits for the Kremlin, are very much aligned with each other,” a senior Treasury official said.

When the Treasury imposed sanctions on Russia’s state tanker owner, Sovcomflot, it also issued licenses exempting all but 14 of the company’s fleet, which data provider Kpler estimates totals 91 ships. Industry players said the exemption licenses were a green light to oil traders to do business with those ships, minimizing the risk that they would be targeted by future sanctions.

The National Economic Council, led by Lael Brainard, and others within the administration worried that broader measures would lead to logistical problems in the oil market and boost inflation, said people familiar with the matter. Rising oil output from sanctioned countries is one reason crude prices have fallen from their highs earlier this year, analysts said.

An oil tanker moored in Russia. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS

In another example of the collision of foreign and energy policies, earlier this year, Washington asked Ukraine to stop attacking some Russian refineries with drones after the damage rattled global diesel and gasoline markets.

The average price of a gallon of gasoline was $3.44 earlier this week, around the same level as a year ago, but substantially higher than four years ago, according to data from the U.S. Energy Administration.

The Iranian sanctions announced Tuesday target companies in the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong that facilitate payments for Iranian crude. They aren’t expected to have a tangible impact on oil markets, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, an oil analyst at Kpler. 

“It will be limited and temporary,” he said. “It’s a question of forming new shell companies and rearranging the supply chain.”

In the case of Venezuela, the U.S. rolled back sanctions last year on the condition of fair democratic elections. Tapping the country’s reserves was suddenly a possibility again for Western oil producers. The country’s crude exports have risen 5% so far this year, according to Kpler data.

The U.S. later didn’t renew a general license for companies to operate in Venezuela after the country’s highest court in January upheld a ban on the candidacy of an opposition leader.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Oil-diplomacy efforts have been particularly intense in Iraq…

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Yet in recent weeks, officials have approached large commodity traders to apply for special licenses to ship Venezuelan oil and approved individual applications, according to administration officials and executives at major commodity trading houses.

“Nothing terrifies an American president more than a gasoline-pump price spike,” said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and former White House policy official under George W. Bush. “They will go to great lengths to prevent this, especially in an election year.”

Elsewhere, American oil-diplomacy efforts have been particularly intense in Iraq. Last month, a State Department delegation visited Erbil, a city in the northern Kurdistan region, to try to reopen a pipeline that connects the oil-rich area to a Turkish port. A political dispute among Turkey, Iraq and the semiautonomous Kurdistan region has blocked the pipe since early 2023.

The pipeline “is an energy asset the United States very much wishes to see brought back online,” said Geoffrey Pyatt, the State Department’s assistant secretary for energy resources, in a briefing in March. “Global, and especially European, markets are hungry for non-Russian sources of supply.”

The oil in the pipeline isn’t Russian. But the pipeline itself is 60% owned by state-controlled Rosneft Oil, and the company earns fees when crude flows through it. Late last year, Rosneft sent a group of traders to Kurdistan on a similar assignment.

Its yearlong closure has meant that the Moscow-based company has missed out on more than $720 million of revenue, according to a person familiar with the project.

Etibar Eyyub, the Azeri trader who operates the Russian oil-trading network, traveled to the Kurdish capital of Erbil by private jet last fall with his business partner, Tahir Garayev. They were there to discuss the pipeline with senior Kurdish officials, said people familiar with the matter. Eyyub returned this spring for more talks, some of them said.

A Rosneft spokesperson didn’t comment on the pipeline but said it has become common practice for the Journal to send “biased enquiries.”

Tuesday’s sanctions against Iran affect only a small amount of the country’s oil exports.

After the publication of this article, Eyyub said in a statement that he doesn’t represent Rosneft and didn’t attend meetings with Kurdish government officials.

Garayev said in a statement after the publication of this article that he didn’t attend the meetings and is “no longer involved in any businesses in oil and gas or other industries.”

It is clear what the U.S. position is, Safeen Dizayee, the Kurdish foreign minister, said in an interview. The pipeline was built before there was a conflict and “it is not about supporting one side or another,” he said, referring to Ukraine and Russia.

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Write to Anna Hirtenstein at anna.hirtenstein@wsj.com, Joe Wallace at joe.wallace@wsj.com, Ian Talley at Ian.Talley@wsj.com and Costas Paris at costas.paris@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications
Treasury Department sanctions against Russia this month left the country’s oil industry largely untouched. A caption in an earlier version of this article incorrectly said Treasury Department sanctions against Russia last month left the country’s oil industry largely untouched. (Corrected on June 26)

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"The KGB agent came to Asia with a mission to disrupt, and he was successful."

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Image: Stasi-Unterlagen-Archiv

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“The enigma of the Russian President continues to grow. In the 1980s, Vladimir Putin served as a junior officer in the KGB, the Soviet Union's formidable intelligence agency. His tenure in East Germany reportedly involved covert operations and interactions with leftist militants linked to the Red Army Faction (RAF) in West Germany. It is suggested that he may have provided them with weapons and guidance while he was stationed at the KGB's Dresden base, further complicating his already mysterious history. You can learn about President Vladimir Putin's life in the special edition of Die Spiegel from June of last year…

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Aurus Senat Limousine and Korean Sword Dog: Artwork by Germán & Co.

Kim and Putin have made a public appearance, raising questions about the genuineness of their rapport. Many are curious whether their interactions are simply for show. Speculation abounds regarding the dynamics of their relationship, including conjectures about the necessity for ammunition in Kim Jong-Un's opulent, bulletproof train. "At present, the two globally isolated nations have forged a robust alliance since Russia's incursion into Ukraine. Despite global sanctions imposed on both countries, it is suspected that North Korea is supplying Russia with artillery, rockets, and ballistic missiles for the conflict. Both nations refute any breach of the sanctions, with North Korea aiding Russia from the beginning of the Ukrainian invasion."

An exotic and lavish gift...

Was highlighted by a notable exchange of gifts. He gifted Kim Jong-un a luxurious Aurus Senat limousine valued at three hundred thousand dollars, acknowledging the North Korean leader's penchant for luxury foreign cars. Kim's sister, Yo Jong, remarked that the gift "clearly demonstrates the special personal relations between the top leaders of the two countries," as the North Korean state news agency KCNA reported. In return, Kim Jong Un presented President Putin with two Korean sword dogs emblematic of the people's strength and spirit. The magnificent Korean sword dog, fierce like a wolf, was an apt gift for a president whose spirit is likened to a Siberian wolf and Dostoevsky. This exchange of gifts serves as a metaphor for the diplomatic strategies and geopolitical nuances of the two leaders' alliance.

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"Kim Phúc, the Girl in the Picture"

Why is this visit to Vietnam so crucial to President Putin?

Vietnam, especially Saigon, occupies a special place in Marguerite Duras's heart and has earned widespread acclaim for its portrayal of love and sensuality in her celebrated novel, "The Lover." While engrossed in the enthralling story that stirs profound emotions, it's easy to overlook the historical backdrop that shapes the narrative.During her time in Saigon, Marguerite developed a deep affection for Huynh Thuy Le, the son of a prosperous Chinese businessman. Despite the significant age difference of twelve years, they met on a ferry that connected Saigon and the Mekong Delta. Over time, their relationship evolved into a romantic one. The iconic photograph titled "Kim Phuc, The Girl in the Picture" also takes us back to the historical context of the Mekong Delta conflict, a pivotal event that precipitated the Vietnam War. But Vietnam's history, characterized by a lot of love and hardships, has witnessed remarkable progress in both economic and social spheres in recent decades. Vietnam, initially one of the most impoverished nations in the mid-1980s, successfully attained lower middle-income status in 2010 as a result of a comprehensive economic transformation. The transformation was initiated by the 1986 "Doi Moi" reforms, which involved the dismantling of the predominantly planned economy, the opening up of the country to international markets and trade, and the implementation of pro-business reforms. These reforms were implemented alongside a comprehensive social agenda, spearheaded by the expansion of education and electricity, with the aim of promoting inclusivity for all. Vietnam has demonstrated noteworthy advancements in its pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), consistently ranking in the top quartile of SDG performance among emerging market economies for most indicators. Education has been a national priority since the implementation of Doi Moi, with an increasing focus on enhancing its quality. The literacy rate for children aged 15 and above was recorded at 95 percent in 2016, indicating a high level of educational attainment. Additionally, most children in the primary school age group are currently enrolled in educational institutions. Vietnam has successfully attained Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5, which focuses on maternal health, and the nation is making ongoing advancements in the field of healthcare. Infrastructure development has been a crucial factor in Vietnam's economic growth, as evidenced by the substantial contribution of government capital spending, which has averaged nearly 8 percent of GDP per year. Additionally, state-owned enterprises have consistently invested around 5 percent of GDP annually, further bolstering the country's development. These investments have significantly contributed to the expansion of infrastructure stocks, thereby facilitating Vietnam's ability to provide essential infrastructure access to its rapidly expanding industrial and manufacturing sector. Indeed, it can be argued that Marguerite Duras would be delighted to witness the essence of her beloved Vietnam encapsulated within the persona of Huynh Thuy Le. It is truly inspiring to witness the transformation of this deep affection into a driving force for constructive transformation and progress, ultimately benefiting the collective welfare.

Vietnam has once again become a focal point in an already strained region, with tensions exacerbated by issues in Taiwan and the South China Sea. President Vladimir V. Putin's four-day tour of Asia has stirred reactions from Washington, posed challenges to Beijing, and caused unease among several Indo-Pacific nations amid a turbulent global order. His visits to Pyongyang and Hanoi have significantly altered Asia's risk landscape. North Korea, often seen as a rogue nuclear state that frequently threatens its neighbors, has been thrust into the limelight, reinforced by Russian commitments of advanced military aid and a mutual defense agreement. This tour has notably shifted the balance of regional power, highlighting the volatility of the current geopolitical climate.

Mr. Putin also signed numerous agreements with Vietnam, a country increasingly crucial to China and the United States as they compete for influence. During his visit, he emphasized that a “reliable security architecture” cannot be established with “closed military-political blocs.”

The trip was a stark reminder that the power dynamics in the region, often simplified as a new Cold War between the United States and China, are far from straightforward. Mr. Putin’s bold and disruptive actions have left many countries in the region with a deeper sense of unease, highlighting the unpredictability of the current geopolitical landscape.

Mr Putin’s presence and alternating between bold and vague threats have added further complexity to their already tricky considerations regarding security and great power competition.

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"BLOGGING IS HARD WORK, BUT IT'S INCREDIBLY REWARDING WHEN YOU RECEIVE A "LIKE" OR A "RETWEET." FOR THE PAST WEEK, ON "X", ACTIONS LIKE "LIKING" OR "RETWEETING" A POST HAVE BEEN MADE CONFIDENTIAL. THESE SIMPLE GESTURES REMAIN COMPLETELY FREE OF ANY CHARGE AND OFFERING TREMENDOUS SUPPORT TO US, WE APPRECIATE YOUR SOLIDARITY IN ADVANCE...

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1804830555218886858

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Russian President’s Years in Germany…

Spiegel By Sven Röbel und Wolfgang Tietze, 07.06.2023

For a number of years, a story has been circulating about the Russian president. It goes like this: During the 1980s, Vladimir Putin was on a top-secret mission in East Germany as a young officer in the feared Soviet secret service agency KGB. From the agency's station in Dresden, he purportedly maintained contacts with left-wing terrorists belonging the Red Army Faction (RAF) in West Germany, supplying them with both weapons and instructions.

Putin is said to have repeatedly led conspiratorial meetings between the KGB, the East German Ministry for State Security (the notorious Stasi) and the RAF, at which attacks on prominent targets were also discussed – such as the assassination of Deutsche Bank CEO Alfred Herrhausen.

The narrative of Putin's alleged RAF connections found its way into two standard international works on the Kremlin leader's life – including British journalist Catherine Belton's bestseller "Putin's People." The same informant apparently served as the source in both works: an alleged former RAF member who was granted anonymity.

For quite some time, experts puzzled over who the source for the RAF story could be. Now, it seems, the mystery has been resolved: The person in question is believed to be Dietmar C. from the town of Dillingen in the western state of Saarland.

That fact could prove to be a serious problem for the credibility of the Putin narrative. It turns out that C., now 71, has been many things in his eventful life: a hippie, a bank robber, a key source of questionable revelations – but he was very clearly never a member of the RAF. Instead, he is considered a notorious fabulist and has several previous convictions, including for making false statements.

Purported RAF insider Dietmar C. in 2001 in a court in Budapest, Hungary

Image: Tibor Rozsahegy / picture-alliance / dpa / Editing by Germán & Co

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The case highlights a broader problem with some of the reporting that has been conducted into Putin's KGB past. Ever since the former spy ascended to become Russia’s leader, researchers, journalists and biographers have been combing through his years of service in East Germany from 1985 to 1990. In the eagerness to find new details, fact and fiction have sometimes blurred, and somewhere along the line, the man from Leningrad gained the reputation for being a Soviet super agent.

The literature is full of speculation about Hollywood-like special missions in which Putin is alleged to have been involved: a secret operation to overthrow the East German government; the establishment of a network of agents made up of defected Stasi employees; or the blackmail of a toxic materials researcher, on whom pornographic material was to be planted.

Even today, there is no convincing evidence for these stories. In the Stasi files that have been made public so far, there are only a few pages in which Putin is even mentioned at all. They cover rather banal events such as birthday greetings, administrative matters or German-Soviet friendship evenings, captured in slightly faded photographs.

The fact that there is so little about him in the files itself provides grounds for speculation: Were Putin's assignments so explosive that all traces were consistently erased from official documents? Or was he actually just performing routine work that was simply too trivial to be archived by the Stasi?

A collection of slightly yellowed photos from the 1980s is stored in the Stasi archives. They document internal festivities, receptions and award ceremonies of the Stasi district administration in Dresden. Some of the photos show a pale man whose face is now world-famous.

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Vladimir Putin worked in the Dresden station of the Soviet KGB secret servicefrom 1985 to 1990. Daily life at the local station wasn't all that glamorous.

But there were moments, occasional celebrations that were also attended by colleagues from East Germany's State Security (the Stasi).

One of the undated snapshots shows the future Russian leader in a crowd at the buffet.

From Putin's time in Dresden, it is said the he had a special appreciation for the local beer, Radeberger, which was difficult for normal citizens of East Germany to obtain.

Putin's fondness for the tipple apparently didn't go unnoticed by East Germany's Ministry of State Security.

According to a handwritten note in the margin of an internal memo, Dresden Stasi chief Horst Böhm not only had his colleague Putin presented with flowers and a card for his 35th birthday, but also with a beer mug.

According to Horst Jehmlich, the chief aide to the last Dresden Stasi chief, Putin played only a minor role in the neighboring KGB station. Putin was more of an "errand boy" at the regional KGB station, Jehmlich told DER SPIEGEL. Although Putin sometimes signed requests to the Ministry of State Security (MfS), important matters were always clarified personally by the Soviet head of the KGB station – with the help of an MfS interpreter and without Putin.

Putin's former office neighbor at the KGB office in Dresden echoed Jehmlich's view. He said that his colleague was "a complete conformist" whose work consisted mainly of sifting through an endless stream of applications to visit family in West Germany or searching for potential informants among foreign students at the University of Dresden.

None of that served to diminish speculation about explosive special missions, especially since Putin himself has never made any explicit statements about the work he performed in East Germany. The legend of having been a top spy shrouded in secrecy isn't likely one that he finds particularly bothersome.

The wildest story to date – that of Putin's purported involvement in RAF terror – first surfaced in the 2012 biography "The Man Without a Face" by Masha Gessen. In it, an alleged "former RAF member" describes how members of the extreme left-wing terrorist group "occasionally came to Dresden for training sessions" and brought their contact Putin gifts from the West – a Grundig short-wave receiver, for example, or a stolen Blaupunkt car stereo. "He always wanted to have things," the informant told Gessen. The interview took place in Bavaria in August 2011.

Apparently the same anonymous source is quoted in Catherine Belton's 2020 bestseller "Putin's People." "We met there (in Dresden) about a half a dozen times," the alleged former terrorist claims in that book. According to the source, the RAF people would travel to East Germany by train and were picked up at the train station by Stasi agents in a Soviet-made sedan and driven to a safe house in Dresden, where, Putin and another KGB colleague would join them to discuss terrorist operations. "They would never give us instructions directly," the informant said. "They would just say: 'We heard you were planning this, how do you want to do it?'" Putin and his KGB colleague, the source said, would then make "suggestions" to the RAF fighters for attacks and sometimes recommended "other targets."

Citing her source, Belton writes that Putin "would be among the leaders" in these secret meetings in Dresden. Even a Stasi general, who was allegedly also present, would obey his orders, according to the source. At the end, the source said, the terrorists handed over their wish lists for weapons, which would then allegedly be delivered to secret locations by KGB agents and picked up by RAF members.

According to Belton's source, the terror of the RAF was at the time a "key part of KGB attempts to disrupt and destabilise" West Germany. The assassination of Herrhausen, which was allegedly also initiated by Putin and the KGB, also allegedly served this purpose. The head of Deutsche Bank was murdered in the Frankfurt suburb of Bad Homburg on November 30, 1989, in a bomb attack that remains unsolved to this day.

The bombed-out sedan of murdered Deutsche Bank CEO Alfred Herrhausen in Bad Homburg, Germany, in 1989

Image: Kai-Uwe Wärner / picture-alliance / dpa / Editing by Germán & Co

"I know this target came from Dresden," Belton's alleged RAF informant claimed."They were using us to disrupt, destabilize and sow chaos in the West." Belton doesn’t provide any further witnesses or evidence of a KGB background to the attack on Herrhausen in her book. In a footnote, she merely refers to the "former RAF member" she spoke to in March 2018.

By then, the story of Putin, the RAF and the secret meetings in Dresden was already circulating on the Internet, on the "Putinism" blog, for example. But in contrast to the source cited by Gessen and Belton, the alleged RAF member was named on the blog: Dietmar C.

Gessen left unanswered questions from DER SPIEGEL as to whether the alleged RAF witness had in fact been Dietmar C. Belton stated that she would not comment in order to protect her source. She said revealing any information would be a violation of agreements made to ensure the safety of the person in question. She did, however, say that she had viewed documents that "gave credence to this person's account." But Belton did not state which documents those were.

The source of the alleged RAF-KGB connection was treated less discreetly in the biography "Vladimir V. Putin" by German journalist Thomas Fasbender, published in 2022. In it, he quotes Dietmar C. by his full name. The book states that the source now has "no reservations about revealing his identity." The book claims that the source is the same person who had spoken to Gessen and Belton.

According to Fasbender, in a meeting with Dietmar C. in August 2021, the source again described the RAF meetings with Putin in Dresden and embellished them with additional details. He also claimed that the clandestine meetings were attended not only by Putin, but also by Sergei Ivanov, who later became Russia's defense minister. In addition, he alleged that terrorists from the French group Action Directe and the head of the Dresden Stasi district administration, Major General Horst Böhm, had also been present at times. And that Putin, who answered to the name "Vova" at the time, would sometimes"send him to fetch coffee."

Fasbender writes, however, that Dietmar C. had never been a member of the RAF, instead merely offering the group occasional assistance - as a French interpreter, for example. Readers don't have to believe Dietmar C.'s account, the author writes, but his story is "no less plausible than others."

Asked by DER SPIEGEL about the credibility of his source, Fasbender says that Dietmar C. "did not give the impression of being a storyteller or an impostor." However, this does not mean that "every statement he makes should be taken at face value."

Whereas Fasbender describes Dietmar C. as a "man with a left-wing radical past and a colorful life in the haze of terrorism" and the secret services, the German security authorities have no knowledge of the man's connections to the RAF, the KGB or the Stasi. Reporting conducted by DER SPIEGEL found that neither the Federal Prosecutor's Office, which is responsible for terror investigations, nor the counterintelligence unit of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, nor the Stasi archives have obtained any such information.

The last head of the Stasi Department XXII/8, which was responsible for surveilling the RAF on the orders of Minister for State Security Erich Mielke, also told DER SPIEGEL that he had never heard of the man.

Dietmar C.'s name is more familiar to the West German judiciary. Starting in the 1970s, he criminal record consistently grew, including crimes such as embezzlement, theft, coercion and violations of the Weapons Act. He served multiple prison sentences, and as recently as 2017, a Bavarian district court sentenced him to a fine for assault. According to the verdict, his federal criminal record contained "12 entries" at the time.

In addition to his criminal career, Dietmar C. also liked to share spectacular stories – often putting himself in the leading role. For example, he once told the investigative journalist Jürgen Roth a completely different version of his biography. In contrast to the story he told Fasbender, according to which Dietmar C. was a member of an anarchist "fighting association" in southern Germany in the early 1970s, where he allegedly came into contact with the RAF, he apparently told Roth that, "in the early 1970s," he had fought as a "mercenary" in Africa, in what was then Rhodesia.

In fact, according to a once close companion, Dietmar C. didn't fight for the RAF or in Rhodesia at the time – but served in Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr. He reportedly trained as a medic, stole equipment and deserted. The District Court in Marburg, Germany, in fact, convicted Dietmar C. of desertion in December 1972.

A few months later, in May 1973, the then-21-year-old was on trial again. As his former acquaintance told DER SPIEGEL, Dietmar C. belonged to a hippie group in Saarland that dreamed of emigrating to Canada and founding a rural commune. They planned to obtain the necessary money by robbing banks, but the group got caught. A juvenile court in Saarbrücken sentenced Dietmar C. to three years in juvenile detention.

Dietmar C. Also Claims To Have Met Osama Bin Laden

There's also another story where the facts don't quite match up with the timeline. According to Jürgen Roth's 2016 book "Schmutzige Demokratie" (Dirty Democracy), at the beginning of the 1980s, Dietmar C. spent "several years in Afghanistan" supporting the mujahedeen "in the fight against the Soviet troops." The book states that the man from Saarland had also met "several times" with Osama bin Laden, whom he had experienced as a very "calm personality."

The files tell a different story: Rather than having fought for "several years" in Afghanistan, Dietmar C. served another prison sentence in Germany in the early 1980s. According to the former acquaintance, Dietmar C. and an accomplice robbed a bank in Konz in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate in December 1980. In September 1981, the Trier Regional Court sentenced C. to six and a half years in prison for predatory extortion. He landed another entry in his criminal record in October 1987 for "negligent driving without a license."

According to the files, Dietmar C. spent much of the 1980s in custody or under the watchful eye of the police, judiciary and parole supervisors. Just how he managed to find time for the Afghan mujahedeen, KGB agents and RAF terrorists in between remains his secret. An order of summary punishment issued by judicial officials in the city of Mönchengladbach also raise doubts about his credibility. He was slapped with a suspended sentence there in May 1995 for giving false testimony.

Shortly thereafter, in 1996, Dietmar C. hit the headlines as the suspected supplier of a hand grenade found at the scene of the kidnapping of Hamburg millionaire Jan Philipp Reemtsma. He was later arrested in Hungary on other charges and sentenced to a total term of imprisonment of 11 years for illegal explosives trafficking and aiding and abetting counterfeiting, among other infractions.

A Known Neo-Nazi in the Service of the KGB?

C. was extradited to Germany and has been living for the past several years in Bavaria. Today, he is a member of the board of directors of an association he founded himself, for which he works as a "legal adviser." In the official registry files, he does business under the name "Dr. Dietmar C."

It remains unclear how Dietmar C. might have obtained his academic title – he left written questions from DER SPIEGEL about all the events unanswered. When contacted by telephone, he admitted that he spoke with Masha Gessen, but not, he claimed, about trips to East Germany by the RAF. When asked if he had spoken to Catherine Belton about Putin’s time in Dresden, he replied: "About Putin in Dresden? No." Then about what? "I don't want to say anything about that. Ms. Belton should explain." He also claimed never to have spoken to the journalist Fasbender about the RAF taking trips to East Germany. Dietmar C. claimed to have no recollection of his written authorization for the book passages in question and the permission to mention his name, which DER SPIEGEL has obtained. He also said he didn't want to comment on the question of whether he himself had been with Putin in Dresden. Dietmar C. did, however, attach great importance to one thing: That he "at no time was a member of the RAF."

The supposed Dresden connection between the RAF and the KGB isn’t the only narrative that captured the imagination of biographers, journalists and Putin scholars. The reports range from Putin’s purported secret spy network to a known neo-Nazi whom the KGB man is said to have handled as an informant. There is no evidence for any of these episodes in the Stasi files that have been made public so far.

The titillating stories first began circulating at the beginning of 2000, when Putin had just become Russian president and hordes of reporters went in search of clues about his past. Britain’s Sunday Times reported on a "ring of 15 agents" that Putin had allegedly built. The Sächsische Zeitung newspaper wrote that among the secret inductees was the notorious Dresden-based neo-Nazi Rainer Sonntag, who was shot dead in 1991. And in the German daily Die Welt, one could read about an East German medical doctor on whom Putin's agents allegedly wanted to plant "pornography with young girls" in order to get him to feed false data about "chemical warfare" into a computer network.

Public broadcaster ZDF and the newsweekly Focus, meanwhile, also reported on a spy network, and the Reuters news agency made the story virtually official in May 2000. The spokesman for the Stasi records office, the news agency reported at the time, confirmed that Putin had set up an agent ring of former Stasi employees in 1990 to continue working for the Soviets after the end of East Germany.

However, the statement from the agency turned out to be false. In fact, the records office wrote the next day in a little-noticed "clarification" that it had neither knowledge nor documents "on the activities of the former KGB officer Vladimir Putin in Dresden."

The journalists from various media had based their reporting primarily on the information provided by a dismissed Stasi employee named Klaus Z., who operated under pseudonyms such as "Peter Ackermann" or "Michael Mannstein."

The now 66-year-old did not have a glittering career at the Stasi. In the early 1980s, he initially worked as a low-level employee in Department XV of the Dresden district administration before being transferred to the less prestigious Department VIII in 1988. There, according to his personnel file, he dealt with "conspiratorial residential area investigations," among other things. The following year, he was transferred again and took care of "technical security" at Stasi properties.

Confessions to West German Intelligence

His superiors were ambivalent about the young lieutenant: On the one hand, he was characterized by a "high level of commitment and maximum utilization of working time," but on the other hand, he tended to get lost in the thicket of information. Because he always strives to "clarify facts down to the smallest detail," the comrade quickly loses sight of the big picture, his superiors noted.

Klaus Z. also provided a large number of details to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution after the fall of communism. Following his release from the Stasi, he traveled in frustration to Cologne during Christmas 1990 and offered his services to West German counterintelligence. At this point, a good year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the interest of the agent hunters for internal information from the Dresden Stasi field office was no longer all that pronounced. Their interest increased only when the conversation turned to the "friends" from the KGB.

Klaus Z. reported on an alcohol-filled party at the end of 1984, to which he had been taken by his wife, who was working for the East German criminal police at the time. At the party, he claims to have met a certain Georg S., who went by the nickname "Schorsch." Officially, he was with Department K1 of the Volkspolizei, the East German national police, but in reality, Klaus Z. reported, he worked mainly for the KGB.

Klaus Z. claimed to have met a Russian named "Volodya" during Stasi company sporting activities in 1985, and that they visited each other privately and went on excursions. Later, Klaus Z. claimed to have learned that "Volodya" was a contact of "Schorsch" at the KGB. Once it became clear that East Germany was soon to disintegrate, he said, they jointly considered whether Z. could henceforth work for the KGB in a conspiratorial capacity, but the plan was never implemented, he said.

Following his Cologne Christmas confession in 1990, Klaus Z. started a new life in West Germany - including a stint as a security man at public broadcaster ZDF. He fell off the radar at that point - until he surprisingly contacted his case worker at the Office for the Protection of the Constitution again in 1999. He said he had recognized "Volodya" on television, the Soviet intelligence man he had once met in Dresden. The person in question was none other than the recently appointed Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

He claimed the he had played sports and went on excursions with him during that time in Dresden. He said that the last time he had met Putin was in January 1990, in his apartment, together with another KGB man. He said he spontaneously pulled out some paper from the cupboard himself and wrote a handwritten declaration of commitment to the KGB. But no one ever responded to it, he said.

In order to find out more details about Putin's KGB past, Klaus Z. was apparently supposed to try to reactivate his old contacts with "Schorsch," who in the meantime was working as a private detective in Dresden. The operation ended in a fiasco. Klaus Z. shared his knowledge about "Volodya" not only with the Cologne counterintelligence, but also with various media, which then spun the information he fed them into juicy stories.

ZDF, for example, had Klaus Z. reenact a scene in which he signs a self-written declaration of allegiance to Putin. The newsmagazine Focus presented him as a top source of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, which it reported had uncovered no less than"15 German scouts in Moscow's service" – and seemed almost clairvoyant when reporting: "We haven’t heard the last from Putin."

Today, Klaus Z. lives as a pensioner in a communist-era building in a rural part of the eastern state of Saxony. When contacted by DER SPIEGEL, he proposed meeting in a "Greek national restaurant with a convivial meeting atmosphere." There, he was happy to discuss DER SPIEGEL's questions.

During the more than three-hour interview, he admits that much of the information about Putin that various media have attributed to him over the years was not based on his own experience at all. He says he researched some connections afterwards, with the help of newspaper reports, for example, and that he "combined" others on the basis of statements by "Schorsch" or other former colleagues.

An Alleged Blackmail Attempt

Moreover, much is based on pure conjecture, such as the story about the toxic substance researcher's alleged blackmail attempt: "Schorsch" had only made "rudimentary" allusions to this, Klaus Z. now says, adding that he subsequently combined the account with other information. Through research in a chronicle of the Medical Academy of Dresden, he ultimately came across a professor with whom "Schorsch's" information might fit. However, Klaus Z. did not know whether the man was actually involved with chemical warfare agents, if he was to be blackmailed by the KGB or whether Putin had anything to do with it. It’s no longer possible to contact "Schorsch." He died in 2010

Similar to the story about the toxic substance researcher is the matter of Putin's purported 15-agent spy cell. According to Klaus Z., he had also learned about this through hints from "Schorsch" at a party in a beer tent in Dresden shortly before the fall of the Wall. He had spoken of "troops" in other districts in East Germany. Z. understood "Schorsch" as meaning covert KGB colleagues. He says he knew that there were five agents working in "Schorsch's" Dresden KGB group and had simply extrapolated the number.

The allegation disseminated by some media that the Dresden-based neo-Nazi Rainer Sonntag spied for Putin's KGB network is also based on a bold interpretation of Klaus Z.'s statements. Sonntag moved in the criminal circles during East German times and served time and again in prison between 1972 and 1981, including for theft and for plans to escape to the West. In November 1985, he was deported to West Germany, where he worked in Frankfurt's red-light district and joined the far-right scene. After the fall of the Wall, Sonntag returned to Dresden and got into a fight in the local red-light district. In 1991, a pimp shot him to death.

At the time, "Schorsch" confided in him, Klaus Z. now says, that Sonntag had once worked for him as a police informer. Z. says he then conducted elaborate research on his own before drawing up a "time line." However, to deduce from this that Sonntag worked for the KGB or for Putin requires an active imagination. According to Stasi documentation, Sonntag was only considered a "candidate" for an informant position as an "unofficial criminal police employee" at the end of the 1970s, without success. Because of "deconspiracy," meaning the candidate had somehow deliberately or inadvertently revealed his connection to the secret police, the recruitment was broken off. There are no references in the file to connections with "Schorsch" or with the KGB.

Few Stasi documents exist about Putin himself. Among the few papers in which his name appears is a letter from 1989 in which he, representing the KGB liaison officer actually in charge, asks the Dresden Stasi chief for help. The letter references a KGB informant named Gerhard B., whose phone had been cut off. The former captain of the East German criminal police was considered a security risk because of drunkenness and debts and had been removed from service. Putin now asked the Stasi on behalf of his boss to unblock the man's telephone line, because he continued to provide support to the KGB.

A request letter from the KGB to the Stasi, signed by Vladimir Putin "on behalf" of the actual liaison officer (from September 1989)

Image: Stasi-Unterlagen-Archiv / Editing by Germán & Co

The role of supplicant for a washed-up informer doesn't quite fit the image of a top spy. But it probably describes Putin's everyday life in the Dresden KGB station more aptly than the stories about terrorists and secret weapons caches.

In fact, things were far less glamorous in the Saxony KGB station than some non-fiction books claim. In one of the office's duties, Putin was quite familiar from his time as a secret service agent in Leningrad: the suppression of the opposition. As late as October 1989, Putin's superior, Major General Vladimir Shirokov, turned a student at Dresden Technical University in to the Stasi. "By means of the printer in his possession," the young man had duplicated an appeal from the democracy movement "New Forum" and distributed it among the students.

A few weeks later, the Wall fell and the communist Socialist Unity Party (SED) regime was history. On the evening of December 5, 1989, civil rights activists marched in front of the KGB station in Dresden's Angelika Strasse, where they came face to face with Soviet soldiers who were tasked with securing the area.

The scene provided the backdrop for the final myth about Putin's time in East Germany: According to one version, he heroically confronted the demonstrators, with a determined look and armed soldiers at his side. According to another version, a small man was standing at the entrance of the nearby Stasi headquarters, watching the spectacle from a safe distance.

Whether Putin was even there at the time cannot be proven.

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"Breaking News: EU Imposes Unprecedented Sanctions on Russian Gas"

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Workart by Germán & Co

"Following a dinner with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, President Vladimir Putin metaphorically received a sour dessert as the EU, marking a significant strategic shift, decided to impose sanctions under the "Talion Law" after weeks of delays by Germany and Hungary.

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"BLOGGING IS HARD WORK, BUT IT'S INCREDIBLY REWARDING WHEN YOU RECEIVE A "LIKE" OR A "RETWEET." FOR THE PAST WEEK, ON "X", ACTIONS LIKE "LIKING" OR "RETWEETING" A POST HAVE BEEN MADE CONFIDENTIAL. THESE SIMPLE GESTURES REMAIN COMPLETELY FREE OF ANY CHARGE AND OFFERING TREMENDOUS SUPPORT TO US, WE APPRECIATE YOUR SOLIDARITY IN ADVANCE...

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1803902463206113584

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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 "As we celebrate Pride this month, I want to take a moment to celebrate the LGBTQ+ community. At AES, we believe that diversity and inclusion are not just buzzwords—they’re integral to our success. Pride is about authenticity and acceptance. Our employees have shared their personal stories, experiences, and journeys. We are proud to support a workplace where everyone feels seen, heard, and valued.

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

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Workart by Germán & Co

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The sanctions will prohibit EU ports from reselling Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) upon its arrival and will prevent funding for Russia's proposed Arctic and Baltic LNG terminals.

On June 20, 2024, POLITICO EU published an article by Antonia Zimmermann, Camille Gijs, Victor Jack, and Koen Verhelst.

The EU will hit Russia with unprecedented sanctions against its lucrative gas sector, according to the Belgian EU presidency — a once-unthinkable step that could drain hundreds of millions from Moscow’s war chest.

The decision, which EU ambassadors reached Thursday morning, came after stiff opposition from Germany and Hungary stalled a deal for weeks — though over different parts of the package. 

The penalties won’t hit the majority of Russia’s liquid natural gas (LNG) exports to the EU. Instead, they will ban EU ports from reselling Russian LNG after it arrives and block financing for Russia’s planned Arctic and Baltic LNG terminals. 

It’s a notable moment for the EU. Since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the bloc has left Russian gas unsanctioned — even as it slapped strict bans on oil and coal exports. But with evidence mounting that Western efforts to drain Moscow’s fossil fuel revenues are falling woefully short, pressure has been building to go after gas.

It wasn’t easy… 

For weeks, Hungary threatened to veto the package on principle, as it opposes most additional Russian energy sanctions. That was expected. 

Berlin’s opposition, however, came as a surprise. Their concerns were not even about gas but, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz explained, related to new obligations for EU exporters. 

Given that Germany has previously chided Hungary for its sanctions stubbornness, the irony wasn’t lost on some diplomats. 

“Ultimately, all member states try to protect their interests,” said one diplomat from an EU country, who like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Reality is biting [Germany] hard now. Call it karma.”

In the end, negotiators relented to Germany’s concerns, dropping a clause it feared would harm small businesses, pending a study of the potential effects, three EU diplomats said.

Hungary, for its part, backed the LNG bans after it got reassurances that the Russia-backed expansion of its Paks II nuclear plant won’t be sanctioned, according to three other diplomats

While the LNG sanctions got through, negotiators are still wrangling over another proposal to mirror Russian penalties onto Belarus, a backdoor for sanctioned goods to reach Russia. The issue was slated for discussion on Thursday afternoon, according to two EU diplomats. Germany and France have been holding up those plans over fears they will impact sales of luxury goods.

Gunning for gas…

Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU has slashed its reliance on Moscow’s gas by around two-thirds. 

But it has continued to import and resell Russian LNG, which is shipped by tanker in supercooled liquid form — representing a major embarrassment for the bloc as it attempts to starve the Kremlin’s war chest. Spain, France and Belgium bought up the largest volumes last year.

Although Russian LNG made up just 5 percent of the EU’s gas consumption in 2023, it still raised around €8 billion in LNG profits for the Kremlin. The deal will likely only hit around a quarter of that, as it doesn’t ban direct imports to the bloc.

Still, the sanctions will force Moscow to overhaul its LNG business model — particularly for supplies it sends to Asia through Europe. Russia will now likely have to reroute those shipments via the Arctic Sea, requiring specially equipped icebreakers that are in short supply.

For Germany, however, the disagreement wasn’t even about fuel.

Berlin was worried that the sanctions would broaden a measure forcing EU companies to ensure customers are not selling goods on to Russia. 

Currently, that so-called no-Russia clause only applies to firearms, battlefield items and dual-use goods with both a military and civilian application. Germany feared that expanding the clause to cover more civilian products, like chemicals and machinery for metalworking, would hammer small businesses.

The difficulty, Berlin said, is that smuggled products often make many stops before reaching Russia, making it near-impossible for smaller companies to track the entire chain. Germany argued that smaller, export-oriented companies will simply give up on some business in Asia or the Middle East that isn’t even connected to Russia, fearful about potential sanctions violations.

“It’s all about the German economy,” one of the diplomats said. “They are very worried.”

The concerns have created yet another rift in Scholz’s three-party, center-left coalition: Germany’s foreign ministry, led by the Greens, has long wanted to push the sanctions through, while Scholz’s Social Democrats wanted to hold out until the no-Russia clause issue was resolved.

Last week, an official from Annalena Baerbock’s foreign ministry, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said they feared Germany’s delays were hurting Berlin’s attempts to shed its pre-war reputation for pushing Russia-friendly economic policies.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

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"EXCLUSIVE: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz foresees a victory for Joe Biden in the forthcoming US presidential election."

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Amid a profound political and economic crisis in Germany, the German Chancellor remarked during an interview with POLITICO EU that Biden "knows exactly what he is doing" and is likely to secure victory in the upcoming election…

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President Donald Trump adopted a strong position against Vladimir Putin concerning the construction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. Artwork credited to Germán & Co.

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During an interview at the G7 summit, Olaf Scholz expressed confidence in Biden's ability to offer crucial leadership amidst the intricate challenges confronting the assembly of world leaders. Image credit: Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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POLITICO EU by Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing and Jan Philipp Burgard, 06/15/2024

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated strong support and confidence in U.S. President Joe Biden’s leadership amid mounting concerns about Biden’s mental acuity and the specter of former President Donald Trump’s return to office.

In an interview with Axel Springer media outlets on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Italy on Saturday, Scholz made assurances that Biden “knows exactly what he is doing,” and can provide critical leadership as the group of global leaders faces a complex web of issues, including multiple conflagrations and hotly-contested elections that threaten to upend the international status quo. POLITICO is owned by Axel Springer.

“I think that Joe Biden is someone who is very clear, who knows exactly what he is doing and who is one of the most experienced politicians in the world, especially when it comes to international politics,” Scholz said, praising the president’s presence at the G7 conference. “In a difficult situation like this, where a war is taking place right here in Europe, after Russia invaded Ukraine, where many, many other conflicts are raging around the world, this is an asset, a good thing, and therefore I can only say that this is a man who knows exactly what he is doing.”

Scholz’s comments come at a time when the U.S. and its international allies are on heightened alert as global conflicts — including Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza — continue to escalate, and complex problems like climate change become more urgent.

In the same interview, Scholz addressed concerns that Germany is blocking the EU’s latest round of sanctions against Russia, assuring that the package “is not blocked,” but rather under discussion.

Adding to the uncertainty of the moment, recent EU elections point to a swing to the far-right, leading to concerns about continued international support for Ukraine.

The looming U.S. presidential election also casts a shadow over the G7 meeting, as Biden faces an American electorate anxious about inflation and immigration and frustrated with his waffling foreign policy in Gaza and Ukraine.

Should Trump prevail over Biden in November, the former president has promised to all but toss the U.S.’ international commitments out the window, including threatening to withdraw from NATO if partners “don’t pay up.”

Trump’s NATO comments have drawn much discussion from leaders about the U.S.’ possible abdication of international responsibility, but Scholz appeared to brush off those concerns.

“I think it is very likely that the current president could win the election,” Scholz said, adding that he thinks the rampant speculation over the outcome of the U.S. election is “a bit strange.”

Underscoring his faith in Biden’s leadership, Scholz pointed to strides in both domestic and foreign policy during his presidency, which he believes strengthen Biden’s electoral odds.

“He has pursued a policy that has led to proper economic development in the country, that has helped to ensure that peace and security are in good hands and that the U.S. is actually playing its role in the world,” Scholz said. “And third, of course, because he is committed to togetherness and cohesion in his country.”

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Blogging is hard work, but it's incredibly rewarding when you receive a "like" or a "retweet." For the past week, on "X", actions like "liking" or "retweeting" a post have been made confidential. These simple gestures remain Completely free of any charge and offering tremendous support to us, we appreciate your solidarity in advance.

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1803610827670560853

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

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Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Solar Energy Faces Cloudy Prospects on Warehouse Rooftops…

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"Solar Energy Faces Cloudy Prospects on Warehouse Rooftops…

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The Wall Street Journal, authored by Liz Young, dated June 18, 2024.

Industrial real-estate companies have been showing more interest lately in the roofs of their structures, where warehouse operators are looking to cut energy costs, reduce emissions and even make money from the sprawling and mostly unused space by installing solar panels. 

Matt Schlindwein is taking his time adopting the technology, however. The managing partner of East Brunswick, N.J.-based industrial real-estate firm Greek Real Estate Partners said a fraction of the more than 300 warehouses he manages in the Northeast have solar panels on their roofs. 

That’s largely because the highly-touted benefits of solar power run up against serious costs as the panels are brought in: The installations are expensive, he said, and there’s a risk that the heavy panels could damage the building. 

“Number one for a tenant occupying a large-scale industrial warehouse building is a good floor, not a leaky roof,” Schlindwein said. For the past decade, “the amount of benefit that the landlord could have from doing solar was limited,” he said.

Schlindwein isn’t the only real-estate executive with concerns about the hot technology. Warehouse operators across the U.S. have been cautious about installing the panels on their roofs, even as companies have gotten attention for installations on shopping malls, self-storage buildings and distribution centers.  

Commercial buildings in the U.S. installed 1,913 megawatts of solar power in 2023, up from 1,034 megawatts installed in 2014, according to trade group Solar Energy Industries Association and research firm Wood Mackenzie. That compared to 40,290 megawatts installed nationwide last year across all residential, commercial, community and utility projects. 

Low electricity prices and high costs for the green technology have made it difficult for landlords to justify the investment, industry experts say. Structuring the deals can be complicated, with landlords reluctant to take on the cost of an installation when the financial payoff may come years after the average five-year tenant warehouse lease.

Schlindwein said deals involving solar installations have gotten more creative. He’s been setting up more solar-panel arrays over the past two years under agreements with solar-energy operators that lease the roof space directly from the landlord, for instance. Those companies set up and manage the panels and send the energy generated to local utility companies and customers. 

That deal structure offsets some of the risk by creating a new source of revenue, Schlindwein said. 

“It’s enough that it’s motivating to want to consider doing it,” he said. “You still have the same concerns that you used to have, but you’re getting enough of a benefit that you’re willing to overcome those concerns and make the jump and do it.” 

For warehouse operators, solar installations offer a possible solution to a longstanding problem: how to make use of the sometimes-vast acreage on top of their buildings. In addition to solar panels, some developers have added parking to roofs or designed skylights to bring in natural light and cut electricity costs. 

Prologis, the world’s largest industrial real-estate operator, has installed more than 500 megawatts of solar power across its portfolio as it works toward a goal of generating a gigawatt of solar power worldwide by 2025. But the solar installations still represent just 5% of the company’s buildings worldwide, said Vibhu Kaushik, global head of utilities and energy storage at Prologis.

“We have a lot of room to go,” Kaushik said.

Kaushik said the warehouse’s location determines whether the math works. 

In Illinois, for example, electricity cost about 11 cents per kilowatt hour for commercial customers as of March, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Kaushik said that’s less expensive than solar power in that state.

By contrast, electricity in California cost nearly 24 cents per kilowatt hour in March, according to the EIA, while Kaushik said solar power there costs dramatically less.

“States where energy is expensive, solar will pencil out easier. Where energy prices are still cheap, it may not,” he said. “You can come up with a handful of states across the U.S.—you can count them on your fingers—that it actually pencils out.”

Other factors are beyond developers’ control. The return on investment also depends on how sunny it is in a particular location, Kaushik said, noting solar panels produce far more energy on average in Southern California than in Seattle.

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In this edition, you can read about the final blow to Chinese 'neutrality' on the Ukraine war with the dismissal of the Swiss peace conference, and how Beijing's commitment to Russia has reached new heights. (POLITICO EU editorial today)

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Blogging is hard work, but it's incredibly rewarding when you receive a "like" or a "retweet." For the past week, on "X", actions like "liking" or "retweeting" a post have been made confidential. These simple gestures remain Completely free of any charge and offering tremendous support to us, we appreciate your solidarity in advance.

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1803364266650571154

---

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

Workart by Germán & Co

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Final blow to Chinese ‘neutrality’ on Ukraine war

With the dismissal of the Swiss peace conference, Beijing’s commitment to Russia has reached new heights…

POLITICO EU by *Viking Bohman, Patrik Andersson, and Hugo von Essen, June 19, 2024.

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*Viking Bohman is an analyst at the Swedish National China Centre currently pursuing a PhD at the Fletcher School, Tufts University. Patrik Andersson is an analyst at the Swedish National China Centre, and his research has featured in publications such as the Journal of Current Chinese Affairs and the Extractive Industries and Society. Hugo von Essen is an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS), where he leads the SCEEUS Eastern Europe Policy Project.

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China’s sympathy for Russia was already clear to most observers at the outset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Less discussed, however, is the extent to which Beijing’s support for Moscow has grown since. This was made painfully clear in the lead-up to the Swiss peace summit on Ukraine last weekend.

While some European leaders are eager to involve China in efforts to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, much to their disappointment, Beijing declined to participate in the peace conference, citing its lack of participation and “recognition from both Russia and Ukraine.”

Following this announcement, in the run-up to the gathering, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed dismay about China’s absence, as well as Beijing actively pressuring other countries to not participate. Russia was “using Chinese diplomats” to “disrupt the peace summit,” Zelenskyy said. And though he didn’t specify which countries were targeted, in early May, China’s designated envoy for the conflict had visited nations like Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and Kazakhstan.

It would, of course, be an exaggeration to say China and Russia are in complete agreement on the war. A review of recent statements and analyses from Beijing and Moscow makes clear that China recognizes Ukraine as a sovereign state, and doesn’t subscribe to Russian narratives about the country being a Nazified Western puppet. It also maintains direct contact with Kyiv, has spoken out against Russian nuclear threats, and hasn’t publicly supported the invasion either. Instead, it has vaguely stated that “the sovereignty of all countries” must be respected, subtly suggesting the invasion might not be justifiable.

But this is about as far as the divergences go, as the two countries tend to agree on key issues.

For example, China has repeatedly expressed support for the “legitimate security concerns” Russia has about NATO’s eastward expansion. In Beijing’s view, the culprit of the conflict is the U.S., which it says has sought to provoke a confrontation in the region.

Over the years, China’s historical skepticism of NATO, which dates back to at least the 1999 U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia, has developed into outright aversion. And Chinese officials view NATO’s June 2022 strategic concept — the first to list China as a security challenge — as confirmation of their suspicions that the organization is set to expand its geographical scope to try and contain the country.

Meanwhile, Beijing has also gravitated toward the notion of “indivisible security,” which posits that nations shouldn’t enhance their security at the expense of others — a doctrine promoted by Moscow for decades, and a criticism aimed at NATO’s activities. Prior to the invasion, China had endorsed the concept in joint statements with Russia. But since then, it’s been included in the Global Security Initiative — a cornerstone of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision for international relations — which suggests it will enjoy a more prominent role in Chinese foreign policy.

The pair also share a disdain for Western sanctions — including those imposed on Russia. Chinese officials vehemently oppose American “illegal unilateral sanctions” and say they won’t comply with them. And Xi hasn’t just passively resisted efforts to isolate Russia, providing the country with an economic lifeline, he’s also shown he’s willing to bear both reputational and economic costs to support his neighbor.

Since 2022, China’s leaders have dealt with a serious economic downturn, the sudden and unexplained ousting of two cabinet ministers and growing Western resistance to its global ambitions. The war has only amplified these challenges, with China’s relations with Europe tarnished by Beijing’s support for Moscow. And while China’s been wary of openly violating Western sanctions, multiple Chinese companies have recently been subject to restrictions for trading with Russian counterparts.

But this seems to be a sacrifice Xi is willing to make. In fact, as the West has increased its demands on China, it’s bond with Russia appears to have only strengthened. Trade and defense exchanges have grown significantly, while the Russian people seem to have become more positively disposed toward China too.

The war has only amplified these challenges, with China’s relations with Europe tarnished by Beijing’s support for Moscow.

The longer China maintains its pro-Russian stance, the harder all this will be to reverse. Chinese firms have already adapted their operations to cater to expanding trade relations with Russia. Over time, this structural change will become harder and more expensive to undo. Moreover, Xi’s support of Putin has been personal and highly publicized. And as China’s pro-Russian policies don’t enjoy universal support among Chinese intellectuals, a policy reversal could be seen as a concession to his critics.

After his meeting with Xi in April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the two leaders had agreed to “coordinate intensively” on holding peace conferences regarding Ukraine. And he made it clear he thinks “China’s word carries weight in Russia.”

It’s true a mediator doesn’t have to be perfectly impartial to be successful. With decisive leverage over one or both conflicting parties, it can cajole them into making compromises that might otherwise be impossible. For such efforts to be successful, however, said mediator must be willing to lean on the dependent parties in a way that can significantly strain its relations with them. So far, Xi has shown no signs of willingness to do so — and the chances of that seem to be decreasing.

European leaders are right to maintain a dialogue with China and to continue demanding Xi uses his leverage. But until China does so, letting Beijing take on a major role in the peace process risks legitimizing the invasion.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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“The King’s Two Bodies”

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"The unwise intention of carrying out a —-fiscal coup—- in the banking and energy sectors…

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“IMF warns that extraordinary taxes on banking and energy should be limited and temporary… The institution points out that they may discourage investment if they remain in their current form… The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns Spain that extraordinary taxes on banks, energy companies and large fortunes should be "limited and temporary". These have raised significant revenue, some 3.5 billion euros in the 2023 fiscal year, and have helped finance measures to combat the energy and price crises, the IMF admits. However, the Washington-based institution considers that these taxes, if maintained in their current format, could be "particularly distortionary and create uncertainty", which in turn "could discourage investment that is already weak".

EL PAÍS by Antonio Maqueda, Madrid - June 17, 2024 - English edition by German & Co.

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Indeed, "Long Live the King"...

"The King's Two Bodies," written by Ernst Kantorowicz in 1957, delves into the historical concept of the monarch's dual role—the natural body and the body politic—and traces its origins to the Middle Ages, a pivotal period in the development of political thought.

The king’s natural body, with its physical attributes, weaknesses, wishes, sufferings, and mortality, is a human reality; however, the king’s spiritual body, which transcends the earthly realm, symbolizes his divine right to rule for the benefit of all subjects in the kingdom.  The theory sounds lovely, but we are far away from it… However, history indicates that taxation was the main concern.

The “King’s two bodies theory,” with its central concept of leadership’s dual nature, holds historical and contemporary relevance.  It provides a unique lens through which one can understand the complexities of power in today’s political landscape, highlighting leadership’s inherent duality.

Current political leadership, which is based on all kinds of philosophies, aims to unite rather than disunite its people.  Why?  It does not exercise its leadership role through dogma.  It utilizes the thermometer of the social situation at the moment to its advantage, striving to maintain its grip on power.  This petty action has resulted in most societies worldwide being broken, fractured, and confused. 

People in leadership positions have completely failed to uphold their solemn responsibility to work for society’s welfare.  However, even more dangerous for today’s weak democracies is where autocratic power has, consciously or unconsciously, been eroding the legal framework; unfortunately, this condition is increasingly palpable, causing a permanent crisis where the opponent is always to blame.

The banking and energy sectors are two of the most crucial pillars of the modern economy. They play a pivotal role in the generation of employment opportunities and the stimulation of economic expansion. These industries are of critical importance in ensuring the smooth functioning of various aspects of the economy, contributing significantly to overall stability and development.

The banking sector, a pivotal component of the economy, is tasked with facilitating financial transactions, providing loans and credit, managing savings and investments, and offering a range of financial services to individuals, businesses, and governments. The issue is not merely financial; it is also about livelihoods. Banks play a pivotal role in the allocation of capital, the promotion of economic growth, and the facilitation of economic activities by providing a stable and efficient financial system.

The energy sector is of great importance for the functioning of the economy and the operation of various industries. It encompasses the production, distribution, and consumption of energy resources, including oil, gas, electricity, and renewable energy sources. The energy sector ensures the availability of reliable and affordable energy supplies, which are critical for industrial production, transportation, heating, and cooling. Furthermore, it contributes to the creation of employment opportunities, technological innovation, and sustainable development.

In summary, both sectors are of great importance for driving economic growth, creating employment opportunities, and ensuring the smooth functioning of the economy.

On November 13, 2022, I posted the widely circulated article "The Drought (1964)." This essay delves into the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Machiavellian strategies employed in the natural gas market's supply side. Additionally, the article sheds light on the political inclination to interfere in the energy.

“Not even in the mind of that genius of science fiction storytelling, James Graham Ballard (JG Ballard, Shanghai, British International Treaty 1930-London, UK 2009) in his short story The Drought (1964), did he fail to visualise what would affect in the future the colony of individuals inhabiting a small, remote, and sick planet, called: Earth.

Not only the human sensory system has been affected by these new living conditions, but also industry in all its processes, a consequence of the forced confinement of human beings, which prevented them from going to their workplaces normally, is suffering from the non-existence of raw materials and components to keep the production chain in operation in order to supply the basic needs that man requires for his subsistence.

The lack of supply of essential goods... together with the excessive costs of international sea freight transport, triggers the poison known as inflation.  Global Cumulative Inflation from January 2020 to December 2021 went from 1.9% to no less than 3.5%, practically doubling in one calendar year, and by the end of the period the prediction is close to 7%, according to World Bank indicators. In other words, in a short period of time, three years, accumulative inflation has tripled. There is no national economy or family wallet that can deal with this -financial storm-.

In addition to this undesirable economic context, to begin with caused by the SARC-COv-2 virus, this financial setback has been compounded since February this year by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has had a negative impact on the fossil fuel market, specifically on the stable and safe purchase price of natural gas from the Tsarist domain. The reason for this is Russia's sharp military strategy in the economic order in this conflict, using the systematic cuts of natural gas to its customers on the continent as a new element of warfare, known under the concept: Natural gas is the new "Russian winter" as an element of warfare?

Obviously, this clever (Machiavellian) strategy on the part of the imperial government of Russia has deepened the economic crisis to levels unprecedented in contemporary history, accelerating the inflationary process in such a way that it has the finances of almost all nations in check, (weakened by extraordinary expenditures (issuing public debt) through subsidies and investments in the health sector aimed at coping with the pandemic times) that drift to the fragile economy of hundreds of millions of families around the world, who are unable to cope with their basic financial commitments, payment of electricity bills, settlements on mortgage commitments, etc......

There is no doubt about the concern of the political authorities regarding the current economic crisis, that it is urgent and necessary to resort to emergency measures to deal with this unsustainable economic situation, however, these political actions in financial matters must be based on objective rationality, on the true origin of the crisis, the current inflationary process is the result of the result of the pandemic and the recent armed conflict. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a direct impact on the natural gas market, causing a disruption in prices due to a strategically planned restriction in supply.

In view of this, the electricity industry has no direct responsibility for the background of the current economic crisis (neither does the political authority), on the contrary, it is one of the most affected parties in the context because its production costs have increased exponentially. A financial intervention in the electricity industry by means of a cap-price is perhaps not the smartest economic measure, because they (the electricity industry) do not have any tools to influence the price of natural gas. This is a governmental issue, where politicians are responsible for finding mechanisms to solve the situation. In this sense, some European government officials have put forward valid proposals aimed at contributing to the relief of electricity supply to both the population and industry, without risking, firstly, social peace and, secondly, the financial health of the energy sector, which could lead to a domino effect on other sectors of the economy, on the basis of state guarantees, which could be one of the logical alternatives at this point in time…

"The Drought (1964)" / https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/blog-post-title-four-9r7yf-et66s-bcdgl-y5yy5

Amidst a global fiscal 'drought,' perhaps celestial deities will steer the sovereign's course. We hope the wise monarch, with "Musk"  helps, will send his followers to Mars aboard the Starship in pursuit of the 'argent' missing from his royal treasury, instead of focusing on the banking and energy sectors.

"Long Live the King"…

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In this edition, you can read about Biden's Tough-on-China Stance Threatening the Green America Push. The President is attempting to balance the growth of clean-energy industries with the reduction of Chinese imports like batteries and solar-panel components. WSJ, Today by Phred Dvorak reports.

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“Being a blogger is challenging, yet it's a rewarding profession where you're driven to do everything to ensure satisfied followers. Now, on "X", giving a "like" or "retweet" to a post remains confidential. This simple act is free and provides us with immense support. Thank you in advance…

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1803084785436279012

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

---

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

Workart by Germán & Co

---

Biden’s Tough-on-China Stance Threatens Green America Push

President tries to balance building clean-energy industries and curbing Chinese imports such as batteries and solar-panel parts

The Wall Street Journal article by Phred Dvorak, dated June 18, 2024.

The Biden administration is hoisting barriers to Chinese clean-energy imports to protect domestic industries as the presidential election nears. But the trade restrictions also threaten another of Biden’s priorities: building out renewable-energy generation.

This month, the administration allowed a set of duties aimed at China-based manufacturers of solar panels to take effect—after having put the measures on hold two years ago. The International Trade Commission, a federal agency that analyzes trade issues, also gave its initial go-ahead to an antidumping petition that some U.S. solar manufacturers have backed. In the next few weeks, the administration is expected to close a tariff loophole that let companies bring in many solar panels duty-free.

Those moves, along with others that raise tariffs on green products such as batteries and electric vehicles, represent some of the strongest attempts yet to protect nascent industries from a glut of green Chinese products and wean the U.S. off clean-energy supply chains that Beijing dominates.

But the U.S. still relies on imported solar components, and some industry executives say the moves—particularly the antidumping petition—are causing developers to pause panel acquisitions, push back work time lines and prepare for higher costs. That in turn threatens the fast rollout of renewable energy needed for the U.S. to hit ambitious clean-energy and climate goals, they say. 

The Biden administration is “trying to strike a balance there between [its clean-energy goals and support of domestic manufacturing], and they’re at odds with each other in a lot of ways,” said Andrew Gier, an energy-practice director at Capstone, a policy consulting firm based in Washington, D.C.

The administration’s support of domestic manufacturing has helped its green agenda not hurt it, said Ali Zaidi, President Biden’s national climate adviser. That is because the government is ensuring that supplies of batteries and renewable components are plentiful and don’t depend on one country such as China, he said.

“There has not been a trade-off,” Zaidi said. Instead, he added, the government has spurred investments that “build out not just deployment of solar but manufacturing of solar here in the United States.”

The debate around the clean-energy trade measures underscores the fine line the Biden administration must walk between promoting its green agenda and sheltering U.S. manufacturing. Two years after incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act set off a race to build clean-energy supply chains in the U.S., companies have announced $114 billion in investments in products such as batteries, solar panels and electric vehicles, according to environmental business group E2.

But China still hosts 80% of solar-manufacturing capacity and 75% of battery production, the International Energy Agency estimates, meaning the U.S. will depend on China’s manufacturers for clean-energy supplies for the foreseeable future.

“Given the relentless efforts of the Chinese government and Chinese-headquartered companies to dominate solar manufacturing, we have to be equally relentless to ensure that trade enforcement works,” said Timothy Brightbill, a partner at Wiley Rein and chief counsel on the antidumping petition.

In solar, that reliance has been heightened by a halving of panel prices during the past year as Chinese manufacturers and their operations in Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia pumped out supply, Brightbill said. Imports soared and inventory piled up in the U.S., he added. 

Solar-panel maker Qcells, a unit of South Korean conglomerate Hanwha, is spending billions of dollars to expand in Georgia. Yet Hal Connolly, vice president of public policy and government relations at Qcells, said last month that customers are opting to buy imported panels that are priced below what it would cost to make them in the U.S. The company and its peers are “losing millions of dollars per month,” he said at an International Trade Commission hearing on the antidumping petition.

Qcells is one of the companies backing the petition, which claims that manufacturers in the four Southeast Asian countries are benefiting from unfair subsidies and dumping solar panels and cells, a critical part.

Not everyone agrees. Lured by government incentives, Canadian Solar completed a $270 million panel-making factory in Texas last year. The company, which is based near Toronto and makes most of its products in China, is also setting up an $800 million plant in Indiana to produce solar cells.

The Indiana plant is expected to be ready in 18 months. Until then, Canadian Solar plans to import panel components from its factory in Thailand, which could be affected by new tariffs. “Carrots work, sticks don’t” when trying to encourage the growth of renewable-energy industries, said Thomas Koerner, the company’s head of global sales.

The U.S. isn’t making solar cells yet, and won’t be making enough to satisfy domestic demand for the next decade at least, according to green-energy lobby American Clean Power.

Jim Murphy, president of Chicago-based energy company Invenergy, said the restrictions could slow renewable-energy projects. The petition is leading Invenergy, which has billions of dollars of renewable-energy generation projects in its pipeline, to review all its panel-import and project-sales contracts to see what the effects will be, Murphy said. 

The uncertainty from the antidumping petition and other trade actions “just slows down projects and…puts developers in a tough position with their customers,” he said. “And it does not help with achieving the deployment objectives that any of the individual companies or the industry writ large—and I think the Biden administration—have here.”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

Corporate Tax Rate Spurs Political Fight With More Than $1 Trillion at Stake

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“Biden wants to raise current 21% rate to 28% while Republicans consider further cuts…

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Richard Rubin for The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2024.

WASHINGTON—The 21% U.S. corporate tax rate is the biggest single variable in the sprawling 2025 tax debate, and the two parties are trying to turn that dial in opposite directions with major consequences for companies’ profits and federal revenue. 

The rate could climb as high as 28% if Democrats sweep November’s elections and move as low as 15% if Republicans gain full power.

President Biden’s plan for a 28% rate would reverse half of Republicans’ 2017 rate cut, pushing the U.S. corporate rate back near the highest among major economies. A 15% rate—some Republicans are heading that way, but the party hasn’t settled on a plan—would match the lowest level since 1935, boosting profits and rewarding shareholders. Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told corporate executives last week that he wanted a 20% rate.

Each percentage point is worth more than $130 billion over a decade in tax revenue, creating a $1 trillion-plus gap between the poles of the parties’ positions and giving the largest U.S. companies an outsize interest in the election’s outcome.

“Why would we want to put U.S. companies in an uncompetitive situation? And if we did that, why would we expect that we would attract investment to the U.S.?” said Jon Moeller, chief executive at consumer-goods maker Procter & Gamble. Moeller leads tax-policy advocacy for the Business Roundtable, the collection of large-company executives who met with Trump last week. 

The group is planning an eight-figure spending campaign to support maintaining the 21% rate and extending international tax-law changes that lapse after next year. 

The fight over the corporate rate makes up part of the wider tax-policy questions that lawmakers will wrestle with next year as large pieces of the 2017 tax law are scheduled to expire. Also on the table: tax rates for individuals, the child tax credit, the state and local tax deduction, tax rates for closely held businesses and the estate-tax exemption. 

Corporations won tax cuts during Trump’s first term, and they would benefit if he wins again. In 2017, many companies pushed for lowering the corporate tax rate to 25% from 35%, aiming for the middle of the pack among peer countries. Trump and congressional Republicans got the rate down to 21%. 

Unlike other pieces of that same law, the corporate rate cut doesn’t expire. Republicans were trying to give companies a long-term signal that they could put profits and investment in the U.S. instead of in other countries and get similar after-tax returns. 

But tax policy is only as permanent as the political majority that creates it. Democrats tried to raise corporate tax rates after taking power. That plan fell short after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I., Ariz.) objected, and the 21% rate remained, though Democrats created a separate 15% corporate minimum tax. 

Easy political choice for Democrats

Within the Democratic Party, raising the corporate tax is among the easiest political choices, because it generates so much money for other priorities. It lets Democrats direct attention to companies that enjoyed lower taxes and then raised prices; they have pointed to studies showing that the 2017 law yielded modest boosts in investment and delivered wage gains mostly to higher-income workers.

Democrats also point to U.S. corporate tax revenue as a share of the economy as being low internationally; that is misleading because, unlike elsewhere, the U.S. taxes a significant share of U.S. business income on owners’ individual returns, not through the corporate tax. 

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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“The corporate tax share is already low and corporate profits are at record highs,” said Lael Brainard, the White House national economic adviser. “Any way you look at it, we are not raising enough from the corporate side.” 

The corporate tax is projected to generate about 8% of U.S. revenue over the next decade, far less than individual income or payroll taxes, according to the Congressional Budget Office. 

The corporate tax is one of the most progressive ways of raising revenue, with much of the burden falling on higher-income households, but the reality of who pays it is more nuanced than just saying “companies” or “rich people.” Economists and government agencies generally agree that shareholders ultimately bear much of the cost, with workers and consumers paying some, too. Shareholders, generally, are wealthier than the population as a whole. 

White House National Economic Adviser Lael Brainard notes that corporate profits are at record highs. PHOTO: JIM LO SCALZO/PRESS POOL

The corporate tax is one of the few ways the U.S. can, indirectly, tax foreign investors in U.S. securities and nonprofits with large tax-free endowments. 

But the shareholder base also includes pension funds, 401(k) accounts and some middle-income households. Biden and Democrats play down effects on those groups. They also don’t count corporate tax increases as violating the president’s pledge to protect households making under $400,000 from tax hikes. 

Republicans see 21% rate as successful…

Republicans and executives see the 21% corporate tax rate and accompanying changes to international tax rules as successful. They note that no U.S. companies have inverted—taken a foreign address for tax savings—since 2017 and they warn that a higher rate would harm the economy. That is a change from the prior few years, when companies such as Johnson Controls and Medtronic inverted. 

Higher rates now would be more onerous than a decade ago, Moeller said. That is because the 2017 law broadened the tax base, removing tax breaks such as one for domestic manufacturing, so a 28% tax now would be 28% on more income. 

Lawmakers are just beginning to weigh trade-offs within the corporate tax system and the tax code more broadly. 

Democrats aren’t necessarily united behind Biden’s 28% rate. Rep. Richard Neal (D., Mass.), likely the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee if Democrats win a House majority, said he still likes the bill his panel approved in 2021. That had a 26.5% rate, along with international-tax changes that companies sought and higher minimum taxes they opposed. Rates aren’t all that matter to companies, Neal said. 

“The rate is the advertised number,” he said. “The deductions and exclusions frequently become more important to them.”

Senate Finance Committee Democrats will meet soon to discuss the 2025 tax debate, and Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.) said he is still in wait-and-see mode on Biden’s call for a 28% rate. 

However, he said: “It’s interesting when I hear from some corporate CEOs who argue for a competitive tax rate but then also complain about our $34 trillion debt.”

Republicans don’t have a fixed plan, either. 

“I’m not going to get pinned in a numbers game,” said Rep. Jason Smith (R., Mo.), chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. Smith has said some Republicans might want to raise the rate. 

“I would go lower,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R., S.C.). “Taxes—I don’t care what the liberals say—taxes let people spend their own money, incentivizes our economy.”

Even those who might want to lower the 21% rate recognize that it doesn’t expire. And to the extent Republicans feel constrained by budget deficits, they might want to devote more attention to the tax pieces that do expire and carry a $4 trillion price tag for full extension.

“I don’t support raising taxes. I’m not a fan of raising rates,” said Rep. Ben Cline (R., Va.). “I wouldn’t support raising rates, but I would be premature to say that the corporate rate and what it is shouldn’t be part of the conversation.”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

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IMF warns that extraordinary taxes on banking and energy should be limited and temporary…

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The institution points out that they may discourage investment if they remain in their current form…

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EL PAÍS by Antonio Maqueda, Madrid - June 17, 2024 - English Edition by German & Co.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns Spain that extraordinary taxes on banks, energy companies and large fortunes should be "limited and temporary". These have raised significant revenue, some 3.5 billion euros in the 2023 fiscal year, and have helped finance measures to combat the energy and price crises, the IMF admits. However, the Washington-based institution considers that these taxes, if maintained in their current format, could be "particularly distortionary and create uncertainty", which in turn "could discourage investment that is already weak".

The Fund explains that these taxes were introduced in response to the inflationary crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine: "The question of who should bear the cost of the measures came to the fore," it notes. In this context, energy companies have benefited from soaring prices. And banks have raised their margins with the rate hikes that were approved to tame inflation: they have passed on the rates to the loans they grant, but they have not passed them on with the same intensity to their depositors. This is the conclusion of a study by the Bank of Spain that quotes the IMF. All this has justified the government's reaction. However, such exceptionality cannot last forever: "Extraordinary levies do not constitute a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation strategy", say the Fund's economists in their annual report on the Spanish economy, the so-called Article IV. They add that they are not a sound alternative to measures that raise revenues in a structural way. In the long term, revenue collection should be complemented by initiatives to contain the increase in spending, especially on pensions, they conclude.

If such levies are to be made permanent, the IMF explains, the windfall gains should be clearly defined. It would be advisable to align the tax bases with that definition to minimise distortionary effects, it says. They could also be redesigned to pursue other objectives: according to the Fund, the bank tax could be reoriented in such a way that the accumulated countercyclical capital buffers can be deducted. In fact, the Bank of Spain has just demanded an increase in these buffers because it believes that now is the time to build up their reserves.

In other words, the tax could be used to make banks better capitalised. Banks in Spain have low levels of capital in European comparison. Although they would hold up well in an adverse scenario, they would do so at the cost of a substantial contraction in credit, according to the stress analysis carried out by the FMI. "A retention of banks' profits today could pay off if risks materialise," he says. So using the tax to shore up capital would be a way to strengthen the financial system and prepare it for future crises. This position of the IMF is the same as that of the Bank of Spain.

The government has announced its intention to make these figures permanent. It will use them to justify to Brussels that it is approving the fiscal reform it has committed to in exchange for European funds. When asked if she would allow capital gains tax relief, María Jesús Montero replied that the tax is designed to raise revenue and not to improve the solvency of banks. The Treasury did allow renewable investments to be deducted in the tax on energy companies after negotiating with the PNV.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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The tax on banks is 4.8% of the net interest and commission income of institutions operating in Spain with revenues of more than 800 million euros. The IMF recalls that the ECB has already criticised it. On the basis of 2022, 1.2 billion was collected. According to the Fund's calculations, this represents 10% of the profit linked to its activity in Spain in 2023: "A fairly small fraction but not trivial". "Although it does not seem to have had a significant negative effect on the financial sector, its magnitude is sufficient to influence future decisions of banks if it is prolonged," the report states.

In the agency's view, the design of the tax has "important limitations". It taxes net interest income and not profit. As a result, it does not take into account the possibility that banks may have high margins but low profits, and vice versa. "Risky lending could be particularly disadvantaged, as its higher returns would be taxed while its higher provisions would not be deductible," notes Kristalina Georgieva's institution. Still, it acknowledges that identifying windfall profits is not easy: Spanish banks' return on equity did not experience significant increases compared to their European peers in 2022 and 2023. However, profitability in the domestic market increased to its highest level since the financial crisis, due, according to the Bank of Spain, to the fact that they returned less on deposits than in the euro area and other periods with similar economic conditions. The 800 million limit leaves out institutions regardless of their profitability, it adds.

The IMF considers that only cyclical factors should be included in the tax base, which would lower the revenue raising capacity. In any case, even without the redesign, the Fund expects its revenues to decline in the coming years as margins narrow because rates are lowered and because they are passed on to depositors.

The energy levy…

The extraordinary tax on energy companies is 1.2% of their turnover. In 2023, 1.6 billion was collected for the 2022 activity. The Fund recalls that several of these companies threatened to take their investments to other countries if the levy was extended. It has been extended until 2025. But it was announced, following an agreement with the PNV, that investments in renewable energy projects will be deducted. However, as there is no budget, these deductions are not in force.

Like the banking tax, the energy tax does not necessarily capture companies' profits and lacks a clear definition of excess profit, says the Fund. As it does not differentiate between types of energy, it cannot be considered an environmental tax. However, it concedes that the green investment deduction can function as an incentive. Like the bank levy, the energy levy should be time-limited under the current design, it stresses.

If made permanent, the tax should stick to a clear definition of excess profit rather than on the operating balance sheet, he stresses. And this definition should distinguish between those high profits that are due to externally driven price fluctuations and those that are inherent to domestic market competition. The former are the ones that should be taxed, it argues.

Moreover, the IMF says that Spain already stands out for its wide variety of energy taxes.

such as VAT, production tax and special electricity tax, among others. The interaction between all taxes should be taken into account, he argues. If taxation is restricted strictly to those profits that are not due to competition, revenue will fall. In any case, it will go down as energy prices have normalised.

Tax on large fortunes…

On the other hand, the IMF analyses the solidarity tax on large fortunes announced in December 2022. It explains that wealth taxes can be an instrument to raise revenue and to achieve redistribution. But he points out that if the differences in the tax are very large between regions, it can also have distortionary effects: it could lead to residency decisions dictated by taxation. And if wealth tax is left at the state level, it clashes with the autonomy of the communities. Cooperation to establish a minimum wealth tax is a more viable way forward, it concludes.

The report highlights that of the 623 million raised in 2023, 555 million came from the Community of Madrid, which historically has not taxed wealth. And it recalls that this autonomous region has announced a change in the tax to redirect revenues to the regional government and, in return, has communicated a series of tax benefits to compensate high net worth individuals, such as tax incentives to create companies, invest or hire in the region. It is initiatives would disable net revenue collection, he warns.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Envision a natural substance so potent that it ignites intense discussions and yet remains indispensable in contemporary society…

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Natural gas must be transported at a cryogenic temperature of -160º Celsius to transform dramatically from gas to liquid. The impact of inflation, particularly the escalating costs of natural gas for electricity generation due to war, significantly affects our daily lives…

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“On June 13, European natural gas futures hit €36 per megawatt-hour, a near six-month peak, as reported by TradingView. This surge is attributed to apprehensions about LNG facility shutdowns and Europe's push to replenish winter gas reserves. The halt of operations at Australia's Wheatstone gas facility has disrupted the global LNG supply chain. Europe's gas supply faces challenges amidst competition with Asia, where demand has spiked due to a heatwave. Although EU gas storage levels stand at 72.33%, the pace of storage injections has decelerated, sparking concerns over future availability, particularly with the potential shortfall of Russian gas. Germany's Uniper SE has secured €13 billion in compensation from Gazprom for undelivered gas, casting doubts on the dependability of Russian gas supplies.

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The current prices in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price are notably lower than historical peaks. For example, the price hit US$18.92 in December 2000 US$18.54, in February 2003, reached a peak of US$23.45 in September 2005, climbed to US$18.93 in June 2008, and as of August 2022, it is US$9.47 per MBTU. Given these historical fluctuations, the market remains susceptible to potential risks, especially in the complex and turbulent global context we find ourselves in.

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price…

Source: : U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Workart by Germán & Co… if you need assistance, please don't hesitate to contact us.

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Natural gas has been used in the global energy industry for centuries…

The use of natural gas dates back to ancient times, with its commercial applications expanding significantly in recent centuries. For example, around 1000 BC, natural gas was seen emanating from the ground in flames at the Oracle of Delphi in ancient Greece. By 500 BC, the Chinese were using bamboo "pipelines" to transport gas for the purpose of desalinating seawater through boiling.

Britain's first commercial utilization of natural gas in 1785 marked a pivotal point for global development. However, it was in 1816, in Baltimore, Maryland, that the U.S. distinguished itself. Baltimore became the first U.S. city to use manufactured natural gas for street lighting, marking an important milestone in the early growth of the U.S. natural gas industry.

The indigenous peoples of the United States initially discovered natural gas when they saw the burning of gases near Lake Erie, a phenomenon noted by French explorers as early as 1626. The first successful natural gas well in the U.S. was drilled in Fredonia, New York, in 1821, leading to the creation of the first American natural gas distribution company, the Fredonia Gas Light Company.

In 1836, the City of Philadelphia founded the first municipally owned natural gas distribution company. Today, the United States boasts over 900 public gas systems, with the Philadelphia Gas Works being the largest and longest-standing.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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AES Andres Natural Gas Hub, Dominican Republic.

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Today, natural gas occupies a crucial position in the global energy supply…

In the United States, natural gas supplies over half of the energy consumed by residential and commercial customers, and about 41 percent of the energy used by the industry. It is regarded as one of the cleanest, safest, and most beneficial sources of energy.

Ninety-nine percent of the natural gas in the United States is sourced from North America. As the cleanest-burning fossil fuel, natural gas increasingly aids in achieving national environmental and energy objectives, contributing to a more competitive economy. The underground natural gas delivery system, which extends over two million miles, boasts an exemplary safety record.

Since 2004, liquefied natural gas (LNG) has begun to assume a more prominent role in the overall gas supply landscape. Currently, approximately 1% of the natural gas consumed in the country is imported as LNG, and it is projected that the nation's imports of LNG could increase to around 7 or 8% by the end of the decade, which would require the construction of additional LNG facilities.

After the pandemic-induced decline in 2020, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in early 2022 abruptly interrupted the recovery of global energy consumption. This unexpected event has plunged global energy markets into uncertainty, exacerbating inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth.

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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Workart by Germán & Co...

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Is natural gas the bridge that fuels the world’s needs?

Natural gas is seen as a cleaner fuel than coal and oil, but methane emissions from its extraction and transport may lessen its environmental benefits compared to renewable energy sources like solar and wind…

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations entity, has indicated that global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by over 40% by 2030 to align with the Paris Agreement's ambitious targets. The role of natural gas in this reduction and the transition to renewable energy is a subject of debate.

Natural gas is often considered a cleaner fuel compared to coal or oil, as it generates fewer conventional air pollutants like sulfur dioxide and particulates. Its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy are also about half that of the best coal technology, which ostensibly makes it a preferable choice from a climate standpoint.

However, the discovery of high methane levels leaking from natural gas facilities worldwide casts doubt on its status as a cleaner alternative. Regarding the expectation for fossil fuel companies to self-regulate methane leaks, it is generally considered unrealistic. Therefore, implementing regulations to cap emissions levels and ensuring vigorous enforcement are essential. Nonetheless, many companies are proactive and are setting methane reduction targets for 2025, as well as measuring their emissions, even in the absence of regulatory mandates.

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All rights belong to Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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Natural gas will continue to be essential for electricity production for decades…

After the pandemic-induced decline in 2020, the recovery in global energy consumption was abruptly interrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. This unexpected event has plunged global energy markets into uncertainty, exacerbating inflation and slowing economic growth.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia made the E.U. realize the risks of relying on the Kremlin for natural gas.

Reducing dependence on Russian gas, which accounted for 40% of E.U. demand last year, is challenging. President Vladimir Putin is not making it any easier. Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom, the state-backed export monopoly, started reducing natural gas sales to European customers, depleting storage and limiting pipeline flows. Ultimately, it’s the result of hasty, ill-conceived energy projects driven by various very personal needs of certain European politicians. It culminates in the frustration of Andromeda.

Comprehending the risks associated with sea canals can avert errors in energy management…

The obstruction in the Suez Canal in 2021 had a limited impact on the global gas market but caused significant volatility in the LNG shipping market in the year’s first half. The disruption led to a surge in LNG spot charter rates for steam turbine carriers in January 2021 due to heightened LNG demand during a colder-than-usual winter season in many gas-consuming regions. A shortage of available LNG carriers exacerbated this surge in the spot market and congestion at the Panama Canal.

Despite the initial rate increase, charter rates plummeted to an annual low in early March 2021 following a decrease in LNG demand. The grounding of the containership Ever Given in the Suez Canal on March 23, 2021, further disrupted the shipping industry, including the LNG segment, by halting vessel traffic in the waterway and causing uncertainty in global markets.

The Suez Canal is critical in global LNG transportation, connecting Atlantic basin markets with Middle Eastern and Asia Pacific markets. In 2020, many laden LNG carriers transited the Suez Canal, mainly transporting LNG from Qatar to Europe and Russian and US LNG cargoes to the Asia Pacific.

The blockage in the Suez Canal resulted in numerous vessels, including LNG carriers, waiting to transit the canal. Some LNG carriers opted for alternative routes, such as circumnavigating Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, leading to increased shipping costs and longer delivery times. The blockage lasted a week, with vessel traffic resuming on March 29, 2021, preventing a large-scale disruption to the LNG shipping market.

While the transportation of crude and oil products experienced more significant disruptions and freight rate increases, the impact on the global gas market was limited. The delays in LNG deliveries did not significantly affect LNG spot charter rates, which only saw a modest increase over the blockage period. The availability of LNG carriers on the spot market was not significantly impacted by the blockage, as there was sufficient shipping capacity in early 2021.

The disruption primarily affected LNG loading and discharging schedules at various ports, but LNG shippers were able to catch up on these delays later. However, had the blockage been more prolonged or occurred during the winter season, its impact on gas markets could have been more substantial, leading to tightening LNG supply, increased spot charter rates, and rising spot LNG prices?

The Suez Canal disruption underscored the dependence of global trade, including the LNG segment, on this vital trade route, highlighting the inconvenience and increased costs associated with alternative routes. While it is unlikely that the LNG industry will shift to alternative trade routes following this incident, stakeholders should consider and manage the relevant risks associated with disruptions at the Suez Canal. This may involve fair cost-sharing agreements in supply and charter contracts, including alternative trade routes in charter agreements and prioritization of gas storage development by LNG-importing countries to mitigate supply disruptions in case of similar accidents.

At this point, two particularly relevant questions may seem absurd, yet they emerge:

Firstly, were the NordStream pipeline operational, the current natural gas situation in Europe might be markedly different. There could be greater stability and lower-priced supplies with a network of NG terminals across the continent. Secondly, the responsibility for the destruction of the NordStream pipeline, built at an astronomical cost of US$11 billion, remains officially unaddressed by any government.

“Adopting the principle of the legal rule of administrative silence, which is considered positive, clarifies the responsibility for the explosion of the empty pipe…

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Last words…

The current crisis provides an opportunity to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources. Although economic instability and short-term policy decisions may create challenges, the high prices of fossil fuels and record-high emissions provide strong incentives to reduce reliance on these energy sources or improve their efficiency. The potential economic benefits of such transitions, including job creation and reduced healthcare costs, can outweigh concerns over energy security and lead to a more sustainable future. The current energy crisis is more complex and urgent than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, as it affects all fossil fuels and has widespread effects on electricity pricing. This underscores the need for immediate and comprehensive action to avoid potential widespread economic repercussions.

Many governments have pledged to implement sustainable practices, which has laid the foundation for numerous current energy policies. Some of these commitments have been reinforced by new initiatives to improve long-term energy security and expedite energy transitions, such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the REPowerEU Plan. Since the start of the pandemic, governments globally have spent approximately USD 1.1 trillion on clean energy transitions. Tightening monetary policies worldwide may raise near-term borrowing costs, potentially affecting clean energy projects dependent on financing. Nevertheless, clean technologies remain the most cost-effective option for new power generation in many countries. The development of new energy technologies requires the use of rare earth elements, which has led to a new form of imperialism, particularly in Africa, with China and Russia playing significant roles. However, the reserves of rare earth elements are limited. As of 2024, the countries with the largest reserves and production of rare earth minerals are China, with the largest reserves at 44 million metric tons and the highest global production, followed by Vietnam with 22 million MT; Brazil, with 21 million MT, Russia with 10 million MT, India with 6.9 million MT, Australia with 5.7 million MT, the United States with 1.8 million MT, and Greenland with 1.5 million MT, are the leading producers of rare earth minerals. China is the dominant player in the rare earth mining industry. The energy sector will continue to be a crucial factor in geopolitical conflict.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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“Delving into the depths of Tucker Carlson's conversation with President Nayib Bukele...

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These historical tidbits illuminate the bizarre and whimsical world we navigate…

The latest weekly edition focuses on discussing and analyzing ethical issues pertinent to the field in question. The different points of view expressed in these articles invite reflection on the importance of considering the moral framework in our daily decisions and actions, and we dedicate our time and effort, even on weekends and weekdays, until religious obligations prevent us from working to provide you with an unbiased analysis. 

(https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/nax7ew5prkpht5e)

Your support has been overwhelming and is deeply appreciated. I must acknowledge that being a blogger is not easy.  The impact of our content on platform 'X' last week, with one of our posts reaching nearly 3 million people within a day, receiving around a thousand likes, and being shared nine hundred times (https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1790282837196783887), has been truly motivating. Our score of 200K on Energy Central, placing us among the top ten influencers, and the invitations from LinkedIn experts for collaborative essays are all thanks to you. We are grateful for your role in our success.

The article addresses the difficulties of existing in a world affected by war and inflation, seemingly without an escape. To better understand these issues, we have chosen five essays that may shed light on the current predicament: “The war of religion in the 21st century…Germany and Russia’s volatile relationship in the 20th century…Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America… The Failures of America’s Foreign Policy…Today's big surprise: Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit…”

In a challenging world, the role of humor and everyday life is deemed essential for survival. The human dynamics surrounding the Lewinsky/Clinton and Stormy Daniels/Trump situations are examined from the standpoint of emotional and mundane considerations.  This concise text examines the differing reactions of Presidents Clinton and Trump to their respective situations. President Clinton affably admitted his participation, declaring, "I cherished the time in a romantic way, without physical intimacy," The show emphasized the significance of non-physical contact and then came to a conclusion.  Conversely, President Trump has denied any contact with the attractive poisoned candy, which has had negative consequences for the former president in the trial in New York; however, the final word is still pending.  It is remarkable that former President Trump's campaign and the GOP raised $52.8 million following his conviction. Amazing…

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Source: The Esteemed Office of the President of El Salvador. Edited by Germán & Co.

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...During his time in office, President Bukele has consistently emphasized the importance of seeking divine guidance through prayer to navigate the complexities of governance. His efforts extend beyond domestic issues like dismantling the MS-13 gang, as he actively engages in discussions surrounding the global challenges that democracies are currently facing. With his leadership, El Salvador has remarkably shifted its reputation from being a notorious murder capital to now being regarded as one of the safest destinations in the region. It is clear that President Bukele has garnered significant admiration for his accomplishments.

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Source: Media. Edited by Germán & Co.

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Who is considered "charismatic and successful" by some, while being viewed as "controversial" by others, in the context of the presidency of El Salvador?

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Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez, born on 24 July 1981, is the 46th President of El Salvador and will take office on 1 June 2019. He made history as the first president since 1989 not to be affiliated with the country's main political parties. President Bukele's significant re-election in February 2024, with an overwhelming majority of around 85% of the vote, cemented his popularity among Salvadorans. His roots in San Salvador demonstrate his strong ties to the nation. President Bukele's rise to power has been marked by his charm and ability to connect with the younger generation, mainly through his skilful use of social media, especially 'X', to engage directly with citizens. His innovative approach has been instrumental in El Salvador's impressive transformation from a high-crime area to one of the safest regions, earning him national and international recognition. President Bukele comes from a prominent background in El Salvador, with his father, Armando Bukele Kattán, holding respected positions in the Muslim community and the business sector. While initially studying law at Central American University (UCA) in San Salvador, Bukele shifted his focus to managing the family's various business ventures, including a Yamaha dealership and other companies. In December 2014, President Bukele married Gabriela Rodríguez, with whom he has two daughters, Layla and Aminah. Bukele's political journey began in 2012 when he was elected mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán in La Libertad, representing the “Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN)”. During his tenure as mayor, his focus on social programmes and community development laid the groundwork for his future political ambitions. When he became mayor of San Salvador under the FMLN in 2015, Bukele's innovative projects and use of social media for civic engagement earned him national recognition. After parting ways with the FMLN in 2017, Bukele founded his own political movement, "Nuevas Ideas", and the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA) won a decisive victory in the first round with over 53% of the vote, breaking the long-standing dominance of the two main parties in Salvadoran politics. Bukele's presidency has been marked by progressive social policies and controversial actions. He has focused on reducing crime, improving public safety and promoting economic growth. His initiatives include the "Plan Control Territorial Security Strategy", introducing Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, and leading major infrastructure projects. Despite his achievements, Bukele's leadership has been criticised for his confrontational style, handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts to increase control over other branches of government, raising concerns about the impact on democratic institutions and checks and balances.

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Tucker Carlson conducted an interview with President Nayib Bukele in San Salvador, El Salvador, on June 4, 2024. The source of this information is the Esteemed Office of the President of El Salvador, with editing by Germán & Co.

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Tucker Swanson McNear Carlson, born on May 16, 1969, is an American conservative political commentator and writer known for his role as the host of the nightly political talk show "Tucker Carlson Tonight" on Fox News from 2016 to 2023. Following the termination of his contract with Fox News, he has since hosted "Tucker" on X. Carlson is recognized as a supporter of former U.S. President Donald Trump and has been characterized as a prominent advocate of "Trumpism," as well as being identified as a highly influential figure in right-wing media, with few comparable voices in the same sphere.

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*Hemingway and the “gang” say: “Farewell To The Arms…

It is the cruelest reality imaginable...

Criminal activity has become a worldwide threat recently. The current statistics are alarming, with homicides taking the lives of almost half a million people globally. Surprisingly, this number is higher than the sum of deaths caused by armed conflicts and terrorist attacks during the same period. 

To deal with the problem effectively, it's crucial to comprehend the intricate relationships between Latin American gangs, the widespread availability of firearms in Europe, and the extent of organized crime. Latin American criminal groups have played a crucial role in the increase of crime rates in the region. These groups frequently operate with a twisted notion of loyalty, engaging in violent conflicts over territories to dominate and control lucrative illegal activities. Their influence goes beyond local communities, spreading into diverse aspects of society and perpetuating cycles of violence.

In Europe, the widespread availability of firearms worsens the hazards of criminal activities. As guns are easily accessible, criminals become more confident, leading to an increase in armed robberies, gang violence, and even terror attacks. Recognizing the urgency of addressing this crisis, the United Nations implemented “Sustainable Development Goal 16”, which aims to decrease violence and associated deaths by 2030. Nonetheless, the current crime rate persists. Therefore, achieving the goal on time is likely.

To effectively tackle crime and ensure community safety, a diverse approach is necessary. Such an approach ought to involve investing in social programs that address the root causes of crime, encourage education and skills development, enable economic opportunities, and bolster international cooperation to dismantle transnational criminal networks.

*https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/glptk75s8wsj72l-rc4p8-wxhbw-ac93b-nasl7-7xe3m-ayah7-9z2lz-hlnwh-8z8rx-zly63-fralc-8nk74-g353w-e6n43-7zgxp-7zhef-2ejna-4eal9-bjfsl-hsnjh-lna6k-be4h6-lm55t-32wxb

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Now to “Delving into the depths of Tucker Carlson's conversation with President Nayib Bukele...

Editions by Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 12, 2024.

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TC: Mister president, thank you for having us.

PNB: “Thank you.

TC: Thank you, for the bean here at your camp David, which is beautiful.  So, you were inaugurated two days ago. Despite being a small country, your inauguration made international headlines. Why? Why do you think that is?

PNB: “Well, it was a shock for us, too. I mean, we knew that a lot of people were coming, and, I mean, that will draw some attention. Of course, we had delegations from 110 countries.  "Of course, that would make headlines because if a chancellor comes from a particular country," he brings his media team, which will create some news. "And if a president or a king visit, that will definitely make the news.  "Even if you arrive, it will still make some headlines.

TC: Why were they coming?

PNB:  “Well, I don't know. Different reasons. Of course. I could ask you, why did you come? 

TC:  Right, I came because I think something remarkable is happening here. That's why. But I'm interested in why you think people came.

PNB:  “There were various reasons. For instance, the US government sent a large delegation, and we also received a delegation from Congress.

TC:  Yes.

PNB:  “The delegation initially consisted of Republicans but later became bipartisan, including Democrats from Congress.  At the top, I don't know what happened in the end, but it's like how stars are born.  They say that when debris starts coming together, it forms an asteroid."  But if more debris accumulates, it becomes a planet due to gravitational pull; as more debris gathers, it transforms into a star due to the significant gravitational force.  It's called critical mass.  I don't know.  Sometimes, just because —God wants— it like that or just the stroke of luck or whatever, you get some essential mass for something you're doing, and then it becomes more significant than the sum of all of its parts.  I don't know.  He likely had a significant impact that we didn't anticipate."

“El Salvador seemed in the toughest shape or close to the bottom in the rankings for everything.  Lacking abundant natural resources, etcetera. And since the country was born, is that true? Yes. I mean, the country has been poor since it was born. Yeah. Lacking everything, basically. Lacking everything, with a dense population, a lot of people packed in.

TC:  What do you. How did you change it? I guess I'll cut right to it. If you can fix El Salvador, what are the lessons for the rest of us? What did you do first?

PNB:  “If you don't have peace, you can't do anything, right? When I say "peace," I mean the absence of ongoing conflicts, wars, civil wars, invasions, or crime. Peace is essential. It's essential to have the freedom to move to ensure that your fundamental rights, such as the right to life, movement, and property, are respected. Therefore, your fundamental rights must be upheld and preserved. A society will struggle to achieve peace first.  Once it achieves peace, it can struggle for other things, like infrastructure, culture, wealth, well-being, and quality of life.  But it must start with peace.  —El Salvador was once considered the murder capital of the world—.  "We have turned our country into the safest in the Western Hemisphere.  We are now safer than any other country in the Western Hemisphere, which you know, wasn't the case before.  If I had said that five years ago, people would have called me crazy, right?  Because back then, this was the most dangerous country in the world." 

TC: Your capital is now safer than our capital in Washington.

PNB: “Yes, yes, a lot safer. And the country is safer than the United States as a whole. Yes, the US has a murder rate of around six per 100,000 inhabitants, whereas our murder rate is two. This number makes us safer than any other country in the Western Hemisphere, including Canada, Chile, and Europe. Some countries in the other hemisphere are safer than El Salvador, but not in the Western Hemisphere.

TC: So, you did that in just a couple years?

PNB: “Yes, we did that in basically. In three years.

TC: So what? From the bottom line. What's the formula?

PNB: “Well, we used both the official formula and the real formula.  We planned, so this is the official formula.  It's not that when I say "official," I mean it's a lie.  It's just the official one.  We came up with a plan that consisted of phases. We rolled up the first phase, the next phase, and the next phase until the gangs started to fight back.  We had to do it all at once, quickly.  And it worked. In a few weeks, we were ready.  The country transformed the gangs, listen, but they (the gangs) had not yet been arrested and were on the run.  In phase six, we managed to pacify the country in just weeks.  Amazing, a miracle!

TC: How do you do that? How do you pacify a country?

PNB:  “The phases included building up the police force and the army. We doubled the army to fight crime. The army was used to fight crime. And we equipped them like soldiers. We didn't have access to useful guns, vehicles, drones, or necessities required for an operation of that magnitude. So, we rolled up our sleeves and then went after them.  Okay, so that's the official.  Yeah, that's the official one.

TC: What's the real?

PNB: “It's a miracle. It's a miracle. Yeah.

TC: I love that. What do you mean?

PNB:  "Indeed, it was a miracle. When gangs began to attack us, they killed 87 people in just three days. For a country with a population of 6 million, it was incredibly devastating. To put it into perspective, this would be equivalent to having 5000 deaths in the US in three days, which is sixty times the usual rate of 5000 murders in the US in the same time frame."

TC: Wow.

PNB:  “Yeah. During the meeting at my office, we were at the beginning, not at the end, but at the beginning. From 3:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m., I watched what was happening and tried to figure out what to do. The problem with gangs is that they not only attack their targets when they want to instil fear. They can strike anyone. So they can kill their grandma? Yes. And it's your victim. Yes, because they don't care about their grandma. You care about their grandma. So, it's your victim. If they kill their grandma, they have one death, and the gangs have achieved the terror that they want to create. So they can kill anybody. A man worked in the street as a woman walked by, and a taxi driver passed by. They can kill anybody. If the state pursues them, it has no intention of killing or harming anyone except the gang members. So, you have 70,000 gang members as your objectives, but they have 6 million potential targets. So, it was almost an impossible task.

TC: It's a guerrilla war, really.

PNB:  “Yes, but it was impossible because you had to go after them.  They were deeply connected (intertwined) with the local community; they were everywhere, and they were killing randomly.  So how do you stop that?  So, we tried to figure out what to do, and I said, "Well, it's..." We're looking into an impossible, impossible mission here.  "So, we pray, and we..."

TC: You prayed in the meeting?

PNB: “Yes, yes, of course. Several times. Yeah.

TC: What did you pray for?

PNB:  “To the wisdom to win the war to have. I thought at the time that we would have civilian casualties. So, we said, we prayed that the civilian casualties will be as low as possible, and we didn't have any civilian casualties.

TC And was everyone in the meeting comfortable with that?

PNB: “Yes. Yes. All my security cabinet are believers. They all believe in God. We're a secular country, of course, but we all believe in God.

TC: So, MS 13 is one of the.

PNB: “Major gangs, and they are satanic also.

TC: That was my question. So very little.

PNB: “No, no, no.

TC: But I hope you will explain it, because very little has been written in the west about this.

PNB: “They're satanic is.

TC: “But actually, literally. Can you explain?

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Artwork Titled "Germán & Co"

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PNB:  "Initially, MS-13 did not start as a satanic organization. It was established in Los Angeles, United States, as Salvadorans were barred from participating in the drug trade by Mexican gangs.

They formed a gang known as the "18th Street Gang" to sell drugs on 18th Street in the area. However, internal divisions began to emerge.

They started to divide amongst themselves and engage in infighting. As a result, they created MS-13, which quickly became the dominant gang. The organization began expanding to different parts of the United States. When Bill Clinton decided to deport these individuals, he did not inform our government that he was deporting criminals. Consequently, they were sent here unchecked, and their numbers grew.

At the same time, some laws were passed to protect minors from imprisonment. And, of course, the gangs used that to recruit 15-year-olds, 16-year-olds, and 17-year-olds. In the beginning, there were some youths causing harm by assaulting others, attempting to control their territory, and selling drugs. These actions were negative, but perhaps not critical. Over time, they continued to grow and expand their activities. They started controlling territories a few years later.

They were a huge criminal, enormous international criminal organization that they have bases in Italy, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, the US. Basically, a lot of major cities in the US will have strongholds right outside Washington, DC. Yes, of course, you have in Long Island and LA. It's a huge criminal, international organization. So, they grew and they started killing more people to just to get territory or to fight against rival gangs or to, you know, collect debts or, you know, money or whatever. But as the organization grew, they became satanic. They started doing satanic rituals. I don't know exactly when that started, but it was well documented. Yes. And we are now rescued. We've even found out and things like that.

TC: Yes, I've seen them.

PNB:  “And so it is. They (the gangs) have become a satanic organisation. And even if you interview gang members who are in prison, sometimes they will say, "I'm out of the gang". Of course they're in prison, but if you ask them, they'll say, "I'm not a gang member anymore". I remember one. I remember the news agency that reported it; a well-known media organisation did a face-to-face interview with a gang member. We allowed them to do interviews in prisons. And the guy they interviewed said, "How many people have you killed?" And he said, "I don't know." He couldn't remember how many. Probably 1020. He couldn't remember. And then they asked him, "What is your position in the gang?" He explained how he moved up in positions, but I left the gang. I said, "Why did you leave the gang?" And he said, "Well, because I was used to killing people, but I was killing for territory. I was killing to get money. I died of dehydration. But I came to this house and they were about to kill a baby.

And he, the murderer responsible for dozens of deaths, exclaimed, "Oh, wait, what are we doing? Why are we going to kill that baby?" They told him, "Because the beast demands a baby, we must offer one." Unable to bear that, he abandoned the gang. He remains in prison for his crimes, but he severed ties with the gang, unable to endure the atrocity he witnessed.

TC: So, human sacrifice was a part.

PNB: Recently in the United States, there was news about a tragic event involving a young girl. It was reported that she was either going to be killed or had been killed as part of a satanic ritual. The exact details are unclear, but it was a significant incident that occurred a few weeks ago.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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TC: Described it, which is weird. Right.

PNB: Well, you sort of wonder why.

TC: Yeah. If a spiritual component is driving it, why not simply acknowledge it? Yes, but it seems my point is that you perceived it in that way.

Well, that leads me. I didn't expect it.

PNB: “Indeed, there is both a spiritual war and a physical war. The latter could be considered the unofficial version. Winning the spiritual war can manifest in the physical realm. Our remarkable victory, I believe, stemmed from swiftly triumphing in the spiritual war.  Well, that leads me. I didn't expect it.

TC: Because you didn't have competition. I mean, they were satanic. I think that made it easier in.

During your inauguration, I was listening through headphones for the translation. I want to verify something you mentioned. You stated, "We have achieved this great victory and made this a safe country," which is the basis for everything that follows. The next step we will take this term is to focus on the economy.

PNB: “Make it better, grow the economy. Yeah.

TC: You mentioned having a three-point plan. If I'm not mistaken, you're curious about the details of this plan. You don't know them yet, but starting a Federal Reserve bank is one idea. The first point of your plan is to seek God's wisdom.

PNB: “Yes.

TC: That is what you said.

PNB: “Yeah, I said that. Yeah.

TC: Why would that be the first point of an economic wisdom? Why wouldn't it be? Why should it be the first part of the.

PNB: “Well, I think it should be. Yeah. But I can't. And most people will think that. Right.

TC: I just. I've never heard any leader of any country say that.

PNB:  “Because probably they forgot to represent the people that elect them, that elects them. Yeah. It's like you ask most of the people that elect the politicians, they say, yeah, that's fine. Yeah, I believe that. But then you ask the politician and he'll say, no, no, no, that's not. So who is he trying to pander into? I mean, it doesn't make sense. Right. Do you think it's a common sense thing to say God's wisdom?

TC: Of course.

PNB: It's a prerequisite for wise decision making, I would say. Exactly. So that's the first part of our plan.

TC: Really makes me laugh. Do you think that that's one of the reasons that your successes, which are just measurable? I'm not saying this for ideological reasons, but just a fact that you've transformed the country in a good way and that you're literally the most popular elected leader in the world. Again, not speculation, provable fact. You'd think that would be greeted in the hemisphere as this amazing thing like what's going on in El Salvador. And instead there's been this. What's going on in El Salvador?

PNB: “Yeah. There's been hostility.

TC: Do you think that's why?

PNB:  “I'm not sure, but one of the reasons is that we don't pander to them. So probably they don't like that. It's probably a reason. It's like, like there's, I'm not going to go into conspiracy theory. I'm going to go into provable facts. Right. Like you said. So there's worldwide agendas. Right. These are provable facts. Right. They have benchmarks that they need the countries to follow and they need the countries to do. This is out there. Right. But sometimes if you work on those things, you're probably neglecting the important things for your people, the things that your people are really asking for. Give you an example. When we arrested the gang members that were killing, that were killing so much people that we were the murder capital of the world. Literally the most dangerous place in the whole world. More dangerous than Haiti. Right. More dangerous than Iraq. This was literally the most dangerous country in the world. We have triple the amount of the murder rate that Haiti has right now. With all the mayhem that they have. We have tripled that here. So what do we have to do? What do you have to do?

TC: You have to stop that, right? I mean, it's like, it's a no brainer. I mean, you have, you know what? You don't even need to have a big thought process. You just, you have to stop that. That's the first thing you have to do. When we did, when we did that, we got huge condemnations. You name it. Say in an organization, we got a condemnation from them. So, and a lot of them were human rights organizations. And you would ask, what about the human right of a woman not to be raped? I mean, what about the human right of kids to, you know, to play or to be free or to go to the park? And what about the human right to live or the human right to walk in the street? Right? And, but no, they were worried about the human rights of the, of the killers, which, you know, they have human rights. I don't say they don't. They're humans. But if you have to prioritize, what would you prioritize the human rights are the honest, hard working, decent people, not the, not the, not the human rights that they do have. But you won't prioritize the human rights of the killers and rapists and murderers.

“We secured the country and we did it with no help from any other country…

PNB: “Thus, we secured the nation independently, facing immense criticism for every action we took. We replaced the attorney general, which drew further condemnation, necessitating changes in the prosecution of criminals. Our efforts were met with attempts to obstruct us at every turn. Yet, the outcomes are now evident, concrete, quantifiable, and irrefutable. This has left critics uncertain, as other nations with similar issues consider following our example, despite it not aligning with their agendas.

TC: But I guess that's why I came here to be totally honest, is what your success says about the country that I live in or other countries in the hemisphere or in Europe where people are killed by the thousands every year. And what you've proven with very little money and no help from anyone else is it's not that hard to fix. Therefore, all that killing must be a voluntary decision that my government and many other governments are making about their own citizens.

PNB: “You can make that logical.

TC: Well, I don't know what other conclusion to reach. If El Salvador can do it, what's going on here?

PNB: “Yes, you can make that logical conclusion. I think that's probably what they are afraid of because, I mean, we don't have weapons of mass destruction, right?

TC: No.

PNB: “So why are they afraid? Why would they take so much time and make condemnations to El Salvador? Right? It doesn't make any sense.

TC: You didn't send a man to the moon.

PNB: “Exactly. I believe the example is intimidating because many might think, 'We want that too.' They managed it with scant resources and a massive issue. Some argue the problem wasn't so severe, but we were the murder capital of the world—how much worse could it get? We were the most dangerous place globally, three times more so than Haiti currently. How much larger could the problem become? Yet, with minimal resources, we achieved it without civilian casualties. Following the onset of the gang war, there were no civilian deaths, and we lost only eight police officers and soldiers. We essentially eliminated all crime and detained 70,000 gang members. This figure isn't made up; it's the official count recognized by all organizations. World Bank reports confirm that El Salvador had about 70,000 gang members and 500,000 collaborators.

We only apprehended the gang members, sparing the collaborators, because many of them were simply family members or individuals like the woman selling tortillas. She was compelled to warn about police arrivals; otherwise, she risked being killed by the gang. Thus, most collaborators weren't criminals but people surviving within a society dominated by gangs. In reality, the gangs were the de facto government, similar to Haiti, where the official government is overshadowed by gang rule. Despite having a formal government with offices, the true authority over the territory lay with the gangs.

TC: I understand you're seeking factual information on a sensitive topic. The question of why governments with the means to end violent crime do not do so is complex. It's not typically a voluntary decision to allow such crimes, but rather a challenge of addressing underlying causes and implementing effective prevention strategies. Governments may invest in crime prevention measures, but the reduction of violent crime often requires a multifaceted approach, including social, economic, and legal reforms.

PNB: “I don't know. I don't know. I can make up theories, but I really.

TC: But you have a gut instinct about it.

PNB: “I think it's a combination of factors, like everything. Yes. They might be evil people that, you know, that are doing it on purpose, of course. And probably planning stuff. I don't know. Yes. Yeah, possibly. At the same time, there's a lot of people that, they're just being fed these ideologies, and they think they're doing the right thing. Right. Like allowing shoplifting, for example. That's the most stupid thing you can think of, but they do it.

TC: Oh, you don't allow shoplifting here?

PNB: No, of course not. So. But you would think, why would anybody think allowing shoplifting would be a good idea?

TC: I don't know why.

PNB: “I mean, that's the stupidest thing to think, right? Or giving away drugs. I said this. Or giving away drugs. Let's give away drugs. Right. It's like very stupid things. And you would guess that some of the people doing enacting these policies are not necessarily evil. They're just, you know, they've been fed this ideology. They think they're doing the right thing. It's like, I'll give you an example. I think a month ago or something like that. Yeah, like a month. The spanish police arrested a gang member that had fled El Salvador. So the gang member escaped. He flew, he went to Spain, and with an international operation between the police, our police, and the spanish police in Interpol, they were able to arrest the guy. So in those cases, you need to do an extradition because it's an automatic international operation. So they just get the guy, process him and send him. Send him to the original police for the file, the claim. So the spanish police was very proud of the. Of the arrest. So they put it up in Twitter. So they said, we just arrested this gang member. So I quoted the tweet and I said, great, send him.

“We'll take care of him. Right. So that was used in his court hearing in Spain as a proof that he wouldn't get fair trial here. So he was protected by spanish laws and he stayed there in Spain.

TC: Maybe they don't have enough gang members in Spain.

PNB: “Exactly. So, I mean, I don't care if they want to keep him. It's a mouth that we don't have to feed. It's a mouth that we don't have to feed. Right. So they can keep him. But the thing is, you would think, why would the spanish government want an extra gang member? Yes. And it's not necessarily the act of evil. It's just that the laws, the system, the things that are being fed to the judge, to the prosecutor. So they think that my tweet was too mean and this gang member, his rights would be not respected or he wouldn't get a fair trial in El Salvador. So he had to stay in Spain to be protected. I mean, they know he's a killer. They actually arrested him because of that international operation and everything. They know he probably murdered dozens of people, but they feel the need to protect them.

TC: So what's sad about that is that that's a sign that your defense mechanism no longer works.

PNB: “Yes.

TC: And that your society is dying.

PNB: “Yes. And Spain is a wonder. In my opinion. A wonderful western civilization is reaching a point into it will start failing. I think that's obvious to those of us with great sadness to those of us who live here. Unless things are done, of course, you can always do so.

TC: Okay, two part question. Why do you think that's happening? Because it is recognizably happening in real time before us. What can be done about this?

PNB: “Point, to reverse it, well, you know, everything erodes and degrades. I mean, that's just loss of nature. Yes, I mean, we do. That's why we die. We age and we die. Yes. You can slow it, right? You can, you know, stay fit, diet. You eventually got to age and die. You cannot avoid that. Same happens with anything, infrastructure. You know, I had a. I had an argument with my. The beginning of the government. I had an argument with. With my ministry of Public Works, my minister of public works, because there was a. There was this neighborhood that was built in an area that you shouldn't build things there. It was a. A mountain almost. The soil was basically a flower, so it was, you know, the mountain was falling and the houses were falling with the mountain. So to save the people, the Ministry of Public Works started building a huge wall, you know, to stop the houses from falling. Right? So they were building this huge wall. And of course, I can't micromanage everything. So when I saw the wall being built, I called my minister, I said, what are you doing? You won't stop the mountain.

And I said, you should build. Let's build houses for the people somewhere else. It would be cheaper. And, you know, he said, no, no, the wall would be fine. We have engineers from, you know, international corporation and everything. They will be fine. So they finished the wall, they narrated, didn't follow. Don't worry for that. The way for that plot twist. But I was still angry because I thought that it was a huge waste of money and a lot of risk, that if in the future the wall falls, it'll be on us because we built it, right?

TC: Of course.

PNB: "So I began questioning him, 'Why do you build that wall? What's the purpose?' If the wall collapses in the future, it would be our fault. I sensed he was growing weary of me, as if I were a burden. He explained, 'Well, everything humans create requires maintenance. Naturally, if we neglect the wall, it might fall in 10, 20, 30 years. But with proper upkeep, the wall will stand.' That really resonated with me. Not just about the wall, but because it's true for everything."

TC: Yes.

PNB: "In a relationship—yes, that's correct. At home, I mean, in everything. Take your haircut, for instance; if you wish to keep it up, you must invest time, resources, and effort. The same applies to Western civilization; it progresses in a similar manner."

TC: Yes.

PNB:  “Western civilization may have reached its zenith, though pinpointing the exact peak is akin to timing the market — an elusive goal. It's widely acknowledged that we are witnessing a decline, possibly due to neglecting the very maintenance that once propelled the West to global prominence. The ascent was fueled by numerous factors, such as embracing the scientific method, advancing science, investing heavily in the arts and sciences, striving to construct the finest things as quickly and superbly as possible, and importing as well as innovating technology and wisdom. However, similar to affluent families, prosperity can lead to complacency.

TC: Yes, it does.

PNB: “Then people probably get spoiled or they get, you know, I want more things. I want, I want that, I want this. You have to provide me that. And you know, politicians, the problem, I mean, democracy is great, right? The US has proven that democracy can work, but the problem with democracy, because everything has pros and cons. The problem with democracy is that politicians have a great incentive to offer to give away the treasury. Yes. So if I say no, I'm going to keep the treasury because we might need it for an emergency or something. Nobody would like that. People were like, oh, I'm going to give away the treasury. So they would vote for him. Then another politician, you know what, I'm going to give the treasury plus another treasury. So we're going to go into debt, right? Everybody will say, great, let's receive more money from the treasury. And when I say Treasury, I mean anything, building stuff, giving free stuff, sending checks to people, Covid relief. Yeah, exactly. Getting a stimulus, whatever. So the politicians have the incentives of just giving away the treasury and entering huge amounts of debt. And that doesn't not only destroys the structure of the government, but it also destroys the structure of society.

For instance, if you provide money to someone who doesn't work, saying, 'I'll give you money,' then what's the incentive to work? If a person can shoplift $1,000 daily and still receive government assistance for food and housing, there's little motivation to work in a store where they might get caught and face consequences. The issue lies not necessarily with malevolent politicians orchestrating events, which I won't speculate on, but with the flawed incentives themselves. Even well-intentioned politicians may feel compelled to distribute funds from the treasury to secure votes and win elections.

TC: It's the nature of the system.

PNB: “Yes, it's the nature of the system. So the problem is that democracy works. Nobody can say it doesn't because it worked in the United States. Right. But if you don't maintain, if you don't give maintenance to the system, it will fall like the wall. If you don't give maintenance to it because it was degraded, the same system will degrade itself. So what you're having right now is a huge erosion of western civilization. So we have governments pandering to their basis, to their ideology because they mobilized the vote or whatever, looking at what would happen in the election, what we can do to get more votes in the election. I don't want to get into us politics because it's not my. But okay, so we had this, we have this huge voter group. Let's give them something to get their vote. Let's give them, I know, $100,000 each. It makes sense, right, to get their votes. But it doesn't make sense for a country. I mean, why would you give $100,000 to each member of a voting group, right? Should be illegal. But it's not because who makes laws, right? It's the government. So the system is eroding.

If the maintenance team fails to address the degradation that has occurred over the last 50 to 70 years, the system will inevitably collapse. Similarly, if the West ceases to upkeep its systems, which have functioned effectively for centuries, they will deteriorate just like anything else. Without maintenance, they will crumble as a neglected house does. The critical question is whether the leaders in the West possess the determination to repair a system that is evidently faltering. Will this restoration occur? And if not, what does that convey about democracy to the global community?

Well, you know, the fun thing about anything, about any concept like democracy, that it works until it doesn't, right?

TC: That's right.

PNB: "It occurred with monarchies and with various systems. Indeed, they advocate for the separation of religion from the state, claiming it was effective. And truly, it was. However, there was also a time when religion combined with the state functioned well."

TC: Yes, very well.

PNB: “Yes, very well. Until they didn't. So the thing is that things work until they don't. Right? So the problem is not democracy. I mean, it's not the concept of democracy. The concept of democracy is great. I mean, imagine the power of the people. Why would the people have the power to decide their own things? It's like the most, I mean, I really like the concept. And it's not only a theoretical concept like communism. Right. It works. I mean, democracy has been proven to work. George Washington could have been a king if he wanted to. He could have been king, George I. Right. Yes, but he decided. Well, not he, but you know, the founding fathers decided that the US United States will be a democracy, right. And it worked. Nobody can say it didn't. It worked. But. So the fact that democracy appears to not be working, I don't think it's because the concept doesn't work like church separated from a state or church conjoined with the state. Yes. It's just that things work until they don't. So the problem, I think, is not the concept of democracy itself, but the, the state of the democracy of democracies in the world right now.

TC: Have we reached the end of democracy?.

PNB: “I don't know, but it's maybe the beginning of the end if not, if a huge maintenance team doesn't come and fix things. It's like this is not about geopolitics or anything. I'm not going to even mention the countries. But I saw somebody showed me the 600 meters railway that was built in California and it cost like, I know, $15 billion, something like that, to build a 600 meters piece of railway that they were building.

TC: It's a lot per meter.

PNB: “Yes. So, I mean, you cannot go on. I mean, it's like obvious. It's like somebody eats too much, right? I mean, you can be a little fat, right? It's fine. But then if somebody's morbidly fat, somebody will come and say, okay, you mean you have to stop, right? Because, you know, your heart would. Your heart can't take it anymore, right? You have to stop. Or somebody did. Drinks. I don't drink, but if somebody drinks, doctor might say, you know, your liver, your liver can't take that anymore. Look at, look at your liver, how it is right now, or the lungs for smoke or whatever. When you see things like that. 600 meters of railway, $15,000,000,000.10 years. There's no other possible diagnosis. I mean, you have to stop that fast now. Because if not, I mean, the decline is inevitable. It's inevitable. I mean, it's already there. It's not like I'm telling you, I foresee. No, no. I mean, it's there. I mean, it's $15 billion to make 600 meters piece of railway is not even working in ten years. The Empire State was built in a year. One year. They built the Empire State. Things were working, right?

I don't know. What were things back then? I don't know, but they built Empire State in one year. What happened with the World Trade center? Freedom tower that was. Changed the name later to World Trade center. How long did it take?

TC: Forever.

PNB: “Indeed, the entire nation was mobilized to construct it. There were no financial constraints; even though it was a private venture, if it required additional funds, there was no shortage of budget, investors, or engineers. It begs the question: why did it take more than a decade to erect a structure of such national significance? The opportunity was there to construct the world's tallest building, to make a statement of resilience and strength, to rise from adversity taller and more formidable. Yet, the decision was made not to pursue such grandeur. Despite having the capital, resources, engineers, and a market large enough to fill a mile-high skyscraper with offices, the choice was to build something less remarkable. And now, 23 years later, the lengthy construction period for a relatively unimpressive building remains a point of discussion.

TC: Yes.

PNB: “You are constructing 600 meters of railway with $15 billion. The duration of construction is not specified. Rebuilding the Baltimore Bridge is expected to take a year.

TC: How long would it take here?

PNB: “Here? Yeah. A year, two years. And we're a small, poor country. I mean, we're one of the poorest nations in the world. Right. I know.

TC: That's why this is so shameful and interesting.

PNB: “Yeah. I mean, the US has some. They have still unlimited amounts of resources because you can just bring money. Right. That's another topic. But you can just bring whatever. How much it's worth. I mean, you want to do it, but we want to build it made of gold. I mean, you can do anything, right? You just. How much is it? Do it.

TC: So that sounds like a systemic failure. It doesn't sound like it's a systemic failure. Yeah. So what you're describing maybe can't be, you know, maybe that's something that you, like, have to level and rebuild or something. Maybe that's beyond maintenance. I don't know. What is the answer to that?

PNB: “I don't know, but you need leadership. But I'll tell you something. If you see the mess that we were living here.

TC: Yes.

PNB: “It's a bigger mess than what you have over there. Yeah. So.

TC: Oh, yeah.

PNB: “I mean, so. Well, just the fact that a third of our population fled the country.

TC: I know.

PNB: “I went to the United States.

TC: I know.

PNB: “Gives you an example that the mess we were living here and that we still have in other areas that not safety. We're the safest country in the western hemisphere, but we have problems in other areas, like the economy, for example. Yeah, so. But our problems were bigger than your problems in relative sizes. So you said, if you can. I mean, if you can fix a mess like this in the US with a limited amount of wealth, with, you know, scientists, innovation, like no other country in the world still, the innovation is coming from the US more than any other country still, right. Even. Not because of the government. But, you know, it still has the best innovators, AI for sure. I mean, anything. So you still have the best innovators, you still have the biggest companies, you still have the biggest. The world reserve currency, the biggest wealth, the biggest GDP, the availability to hire talent from anywhere. You can bring whatever talent you need to fix any gaps, you can pick any. You get it. You get what you want. You still can get what you want. You can't get attacked because you're too far away.

You're too far away from anyone that wants to attack you because Mexico or Canada are not going to attack the US. So your enemies are too far away. And you still have the biggest army, the mis armed forces, so biggest energy reserves. Yes. And the US, like Russia, they were built as superpowers. So it's not like, for example, if you see the economy in Spain, it's very good. It's a robust economy. It's big g seven. Yeah. But they are like, how do you call, how you say in English, Turon Nugget. They sell nugget, right?

TC: Yeah.

PNB: “Or they sell iberic ham. Yeah. So it's very good. Expensive, but you don't actually need that, right? So luxury goods. Luxury goods. So if you sanction Spain, you'll break their economy. But if you sanction Russia, you can't break Russia because they are built as a superpower. So they have wheat, they have energy, they have a natural gas, oil, because they were built like that.

TC: Industrial capacity.

PNB: “Industrial capacity. Factories, workers. So the US is like that too. It was built as a superpower. So you have wheat, you have corn, you have workers, you have blue collar workers. You have trained, skilled factory workers. You have colleges, you have universities, you have a school system, you have infrastructure, you have cities, tourism, the Mississippi River. I mean, you have everything. You have ships, you have warehouses, agriculture. Fertile lands you didn't have before you got right. You took from Mexico or whatever the US was. Was built to be a superpower, right? Acquire land, acquire. Fertile lands, acquire. I mean, Texas was part of Mexico, but it's part of the US and you have all the oil there. So, I mean, and then you have California. I mean, the US is built as a superpower. So the US has everything to go on for a thousand years. It's not like it's doomed to fail. But apparently the leaders, or most of them, you have probably very good leaders, but most of the leaders, they are not seeing, either they are evil or this is not conspiracy theory, just the options you have. Either they are evil and they want to destroy the US because of some evil reason, or they are puppets and they are being handled by people that need the US to be destroyed for some reason, or are they incompetent and they just, you know, doing wrong stuff because they're not capable of doing the right stuff or.

Sorry, I said three, but the incentives, right. I mean, changing a country and changing a lot of things that are badly done probably will anger some people, right? Some groups, some lobbies, some interests. I mean, if you say, okay, we're going to stop the railway that's costing us $15 billion per 600 meters, a lot of companies will be angry. A lot of, you know, I don't know, mayors. You have a system that needs to be handled. So. And that needs leadership and it needs a clear mandate that is probably a little hard to get in the US because of, you know, the opposite views and the bipartisanship. But you need to do it well.

Ultimately, as you well know, since you've succeeded in it so thumpingly, the instrument for all of that is the ballot, is the election itself. How many votes do you get? That's your mandate. But I think there is a sense among a lot of non conspiracy minded voters in the United States that that part of the system is itself corrupt.

TC: Yes. And that it is actually hard to affect change through voting because it's, it's rigged. Sue, with that in mind, do you think Trump, he's ahead in the polls? Do you think he can get elected?

PNB: Indeed, he can be elected. For instance, in 2019, the system seemed completely manipulated—they disbanded our party. We were affiliated with a party, which was then nullified. Left without a party, we approached a smaller one without candidates, offering them a chance to win the election. After acquiring their registration, it too was revoked on the final day for filing candidacies. At the eleventh hour, we joined a medium-sized party and managed to submit our candidacy. The process was challenging, not due to fairness, but because we presented our proposals and the electorate voted. Winning was difficult. Upon victory, since Whedon lacked concurrent parliamentary elections, we entered the executive branch, facing opposition from both the legislative and judicial branches, which controlled the Supreme Court and 90% of the legislature, necessitating frequent vetoes.

They overrode my vetoes and enacted more than 70 laws I had vetoed. Yes, everything we do seems to be deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Thus, we appealed to the people, explaining that this way of working is untenable. We need a substantial majority in Congress, not just to pass laws, but to remove these individuals. The only democratic method to do this, while adhering to the system's rules, is to secure an overwhelming majority in Congress. After all, Congress has the power to dismiss anyone, including the president.

TC: Yes.

PNB: “So people gave us the huge majority, and it was hard because they controlled, they still control the electoral tribunal as of today. That's why our election was recognized by all the countries in the world, because they know the electoral tribunal is controlled by the opposition. Still.

TC: It's the only thing that control.

PNB: “t's the only thing. And we have, we have liberal, you know, that validates and legitimizes everything else. So they. But the thing is that in 2021, when we went to, when we went to congressional elections, we carried a supermajority that they say. They said it was impossible because the system was designed so you cannot get a supermajority. But we got. We've got more than that. And then with that supermajority, there is an article in the constitution that allows the supermajority in Congress to fire the Supreme Court justices. So our party fired the supreme Court justices. When they got the majority, they fired the attorney general, which I couldn't. I mean, the states. The president appoints the attorney general. Here is Congress. Congress elects the attorney general. Congress can also dismiss the attorney general, but this requires a two-thirds majority. We have secured 75% of Congress.

TC: But you stay within the rules the whole time.

“The rules are designed so that the score turns out a certain way. But sometimes, there's an overwhelming score on one side. So, do you get angry at the rules, or do you get angry at the score?" it posed an interesting question. The President of El Salvador should only be criticized if he achieves significant benefits for all citizens within the established rules..."

PNB: “We have never respected a single rule. That's also the narrative that they want. They cannot point out a single thing that was done by not respecting the rules that were written by them, because the rules are written by people. It's not like all these rules were, you know, these rules are not given by God. These rules were written by people. But still, we respected all the rules that were written by them. And, yeah, we got it. I just saw an interview that the president of Costa Rica gave in Costa Rica, because he came, also, like many other world leaders, he came to the inauguration. So they asked him over there in Costa Rica, and they said, but do you think that Bukele is like, doing things that are not within the constitutional limits that he has? And this interview was today, earlier, when the President of Costa Rica remarked, "In a soccer or football game, you have the rules and the score. The rules are designed so that the score turns out a certain way. But sometimes, there's an overwhelming score on one side. So, do you get angry at the rules, or do you get angry at the score?" it posed an interesting question.

TC: Indeed, it caused significant disruption to those who previously governed the country. That much is clear.

PNB: “Obviously, yeah.

TC: Did you ever worry they would try and put you in jail?

PNB: "Indeed, they attempted to impeach me even during my presidency. They claimed I was unfit to lead, citing a constitutional article that allowed Congress to remove a president deemed incapable of leadership. Despite their efforts to impeach me on these grounds, there was concern about the public reaction, perhaps fearing an uprising or some form of protest."

TC: That's a fair concern, given your majority.

PNB: “Exactly.

TC: What advice would you give to another former democratically elected leader seeking office who is facing jail time? Anyone? Just. If there was.

PNG: “I mean, if there was a way to stop the candidacy, then he's probably in trouble. But if there's no way to stop him from competing in the election, all the things that they do to him will just give him more votes. Right?

TC: That seems to be happening, yes.

PNB: “I mean, either you stop the candidacy or you let him be, but just, you know, hitting him with you just can't even. You make him the greatest campaign ever.

TC: I mean, do you think they know that?

PNB: “Some of them. They should. They. Yeah, I think they. Some of them do. But of course, the ones that don't, or they think they're. That's their problem with endogamous groups. Right. Because they all. Yeah, we're so great. Yeah, let's do it. And, you know, they're making a huge mistake. Huge, huge mistake. Huge, huge mistake.

If you're a country like El Salvador, really, any other country in the hemisphere, including Canada, your eyes are on the United States because it's the dominant power. Yes, obviously. But it puts you in a weird position if you're being criticized from the United States. So there's a congresswoman from Massachusetts, a pro communist congressman called Jim McGovern, literally pro communist. Not an attack, just an observation. Who attacked you the other day for daring to move a painting of Oscar Romero, who's a catholic priest who was murdered here more than 40 years ago in your airport, I think.

TC: Yeah, yeah. What did you make of that? It seems like a pretty minute criticism, pretty smal.

PNB: “And we actually moved it to a nicer place in front. It's not like, you know, we moved it from a very nice place, and we put it in some warehouse or whatever, someplace.

TC: But what if you did? It's your country now.

PNG: “Of course. Of course.

TC: What.

PNB: “But you can make the cases. An art connoisseur that he didn't like, you know, the place we put the painting. But the fact that he protested or he expressed his concerns with deep concern on twitter and not call. If he could have called here and said, hey, do you move the painting? They were told, no, no, it's right here, Mister Congressman. So of course, he can even come and see it for himself. But of course he was doing an attack. Right. But he backfired because first the painting was right in front. So you had just to move the camera. It was on the other side. So this was, you know, he misfired. But also, the fact that a us congressman is trying to micromanage where art is being displaced, is being displayed in another country just gives you an example of how out of touch they are.

TC: Feels like colonialism to me a little bit.

PNB: “Yes, yes. And it comes from the democratic party, which you would guess the anti colonial party. Yes. Yeah. But, you know, at the end, it's like, you know, sometimes the guy that's called racist is not really the racist. Right. The guy that is called, you know, the colonialist is not really the colonialist. Right. Sometimes it's weird how narratives work sometimes.

TC: Are you getting a lot of Americans moving here?

PNB: “Yes. Yes. I mean, probably in numbers. It won't be significant to you, but yes, you can see it. I mean, you can see it everywhere. And we're also getting something that's very meaningful to us is that we're getting a lot of our diaspora, a lot of our immigrants, the people that emigrate, El Sablo, because of the war or because of the gangs or because of the economical issues that have always happened here. A lot of them are coming back. And there's a study made that Iom and UsAid. Sorry, I'll send you the link. Yes, there's a study made by the IOM and the USAID that says that 62% of Salvadorans living in the United States want to come back to live here.

TC: Amazing.

PNB: “62% and 18% already making plans to come. That's over half a million Salvadorans coming back. So that's super significant because, I mean, we expelled. We expelled them from their homes. Right. Because of crime, because of a war, because of lack of opportunities. And the fact that they're coming back is. I mean, is the biggest proof that we're doing things the right way? We have a long way to go, but we're doing things the right way.

TC: So after.

PNB: “We have many American-born citizens arriving, but there is also a significant number of Salvadoran Americans with U.S. citizenship coming here.

TC: Do you have the space?

PNB: “Well, it has created a housing bubble because, you know, we don't produce as much. Houses that are being bought. Are being bought right now, but that would create a temporary problem, which is the housing bubble, but then, which is not actually bubble. It's just, you know, the offer and.

TC: Yes, finding its own level.

PNB: “Yeah. So now, of course, construction companies know that the amount of houses they will build, they will sell them. So construction has become 20% of our GDP and is growing. So this is going to be a huge construction boom. And they have the clients. So it's not built in a bubble or speculation, but it feels like a bubble, but it's built. And people coming back home.

TC: Has any other head of state called you for advice on how to improve this country?

PNB: "Yes, indeed. Many have acknowledged this publicly. We hold meetings, primarily on security issues, engaging with numerous Latin American leaders. They've visited us, bringing their security ministers to confer with ours. They've also observed our prison system, which some attempt to measure against the United States' system. They note the absence of amenities like gyms and Netflix. However, it's more appropriate to compare El Salvador's prison system with those in Latin America, where, in many countries, gangs control the prisons, as they once did here."

TC: I remember that.

PNB: “Yes, they run. They had parties, prostitutes, strippers.

TC: It was autonomous here. I mean, you had to get their permission to go in.

PNB: “Yes, you have to get the permission to go in. They only have permission to get in. Food, medicine. But they control. They control the jails, not only in the suburb, they do it in most of the latin american countries. So gangsters or narcos, they will control the jails. Right. Their operation. They even go out and bag and get back. Yes. So we totally control that. And we have 100% control in our jail system. So that in american countries, look to our jail system to see if they can. They can fix their own. So we do a lot of cooperation in security issues, jails, army training. Do you know of even more powerful in bigger countries, of course.

TC: Have you ever, you know a lot of heads of state? Because you are one. Have you ever met a head of state who, when faced with a serious problem, a threat to his own country, would, in the middle of a cabinet meeting, pause and say a prayer?

PNB: “I don't recall, but, yeah, probably.

TC: Do you know anyone who would do that, do you think?

PNB: Yes, probably. Probably. I don't recall right now, but I.

TC: No, but that's just so far from the mindset of any leader I've ever interviewed, anyone who would admit I'm not sure what to do. Let's ask God.

PNB: “Yeah, probably not that common, but yeah, I would guess some leaders do it.

TC: How long do you plan to stay president?

PNB: “Yeah. Five years. Five years. That's, that's as much as the constitution allows me to.

TC: Thank you for talking to us.

PNB: “Thank you, Tucker.

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Just a miracle…

These historical tidbits illuminate the bizarre and eccentric aspects of the world we navigate—a world that can sometimes be the cruelest reality imaginable.…

Criminal activity has recently become a significant global threat. Disturbing statistics indicate that homicides have taken nearly half a million lives worldwide, exceeding the total deaths from armed conflicts and terrorist attacks within the same period. Addressing this issue requires an understanding of the intricate dynamics among Latin American gangs, firearm availability in Europe, and the extent of organized crime. Latin American gangs significantly impact the region's crime rates, engaging in violent conflicts to control lucrative illegal activities, affecting various societal facets and perpetuating violence cycles. In Europe, the ready availability of firearms intensifies the peril of criminal acts, empowering criminals and resulting in increased armed robberies, gang violence, and even terrorist incidents. The United Nations, recognizing this crisis's gravity, has set Sustainable Development Goal 16 to diminish violence and related deaths by 2030. Yet, given the ongoing crime rates, achieving this target appears daunting. An integrated strategy is essential to combat crime effectively and safeguard communities. This strategy should include investment in social programs that tackle the underlying causes of crime, enhance education and skills development, generate economic opportunities, and bolster international collaboration to break down transnational criminal networks.

Indeed, we inhabit a world that is fragmented and rife with animosity, underpinned by a fragile glass ceiling. Regrettably, numerous traditional politicians remain within their comfort zones despite challenging circumstances, which may appear beneficial. Yet, beyond this comfort zone persists the ongoing struggle of those who elected them, in anticipation of positive change. This represents a failure by many politicians. This truth is underscored by considering the recent results of the EU Parliament elections.

Salvadorans are renowned for their high level of education and exceptional work ethic. Many were forced to leave their homeland due to the dire conditions created by gang-related crimes. Many Salvadorans emigrated to the United States, where they were able to establish prosperous new lives. However, the "Maras Salvatruchas" gangs eventually expanded their influence there, extorting these industrious individuals. The cruelty of life's realities can be stark. The transformation in El Salvador has been profound, transitioning from a notorious murder capital to being considered one of the safest places in the region.

Time Magazine recently featured an article titled "Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times," authored by Tabitha Stanmore, a magic specialist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Exeter, UK, and known for her book "Cunning Folk." “In 1552, Protestant cleric Hugh Latimer preached in Lincolnshire, England, noting that troubled, sick, or bereft people often sought wizards or sorcerers, called wise men, for help and solace. Latimer considered this reliance on magic problematic, as it led devout Christians away from God. His era was filled with spells for various issues, and many cunning folk were willing to sell these spells to desperate clients. Despite Latimer's sermons against such practices, magic and mysticism survived, particularly in times of crisis. Tudor people's dependence on cunning folk was lamented by Latimer, but these individuals used every resource to overcome daily struggles. For instance, 16th-century cunning woman Joan Tyrry consulted fairies for children's illnesses, 15th-century vicar-magician William Dardus summoned spirits to find stolen goods, and in Latimer's time, a servant named Joan Hall obtained a spell for a prosperous marriage. The reliance on magic grew during times of great danger, like crop failures or wars, a trend that persists today as it did in the Early Modern period. The belief in magic and the supernatural endured over time, contrary to the belief that it waned during the Enlightenment, which was thought to herald an age of rationality and scientific progress. Instead, we find ourselves echoing our ancestors' tendencies in challenging times.

The transformation in El Salvador has materialized; the miracle is now a reality. Miracles stem from either profound belief or a fresh perspective combined with diligent work, from leaving the comfort of one's bed at dawn to engage in earnest labor. This transformation in El Salvador can be attributed to a remarkably young individual, Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez, born on July 24, 1981. Elected as the president of El Salvador on June 1, 2019, President Bukele has consistently highlighted the role of seeking spiritual guidance through prayer in managing the intricacies of governance. His initiatives reach beyond local concerns, such as the disbandment of the MS-13 gang, to actively participating in dialogues about the global issues facing democracies today. Under his leadership, El Salvador has undergone a significant change in its reputation, transitioning from a well-known murder capital to being considered one of the safest places in the region. President Bukele has earned considerable respect for his achievements. Enjoy the recent interview with Tucker Carlson.