For whom do the bells toll at the White House?
“Hemingway's timeless portrayal of the irreversible path to aging in human beings was undoubtedly his nightmare in his writing. In his tale, "The Old Man and the Sea," published in 1952 and awarded the 1953 Pulitzer Prize, Hemingway portrays the lonely and aged fisherman grappling with the vast ocean. This struggle becomes a tragedy when transposed into the tumultuous realm of the "situation room" in one of the world's most powerful countries. To make matters worse, the world is currently facing one of the most severe war scenarios in half a century. The strategic significance of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the friction between the U.S. and China, and the fears in Europe of a possible return of former president Trump contribute to this tense global situation.
Germán & CoHappy Sabbath! Wishing you and your family the best of health and happiness…
“The comparison between Franklin Delano Roosevelt's 1944 re-election campaign and Joe Biden's current political situation is indeed intriguing. Roosevelt, despite severe health issues like polio and heart disease, was determined to win re-election after nearly twelve years in office. He managed his ailments with various coping mechanisms, such as using a heavier coffee mug to hide a tremor and limiting his cigarette intake. By May 1944, his declining health had reduced his daily working hours to just four…
Similarly, Joe Biden faces challenges related to his age and health, with growing calls from within his party for him to step aside. Despite these challenges, Biden remains determined to continue his campaign, emphasizing his experience and commitment to his policies. Both leaders demonstrate resilience and a strong commitment to their political goals, even in the face of significant personal and public challenges.
There has been a growing chorus of voices, including prominent figures like George Clooney, Barack Obama, and Michael Douglas, calling for the veteran politician to step aside. This is not uncommon; ineffective service often leads to replacement. Recently, several key Democrats have urged President Joe Biden to withdraw from his re-election campaign. While it's a difficult reality for the current president, many feel this reaction is overdue in our complex and often contentious world, is too late in we tajke in considerations the following radiography of the world.
The world is facing significant geopolitical challenges. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to draw international attention, with implications for global security and economic stability. In the Middle East, tensions remain high, particularly in Gaza, where ceasefire proposals struggle to address the root causes of the conflict.
North Korea's aggressive rhetoric and actions, such as sending trash-filled balloons to South Korea and increasing military provocations, further contribute to regional instability. Meanwhile, Taiwan is experiencing political unrest, with large protests against controversial legislative reforms that many fear could undermine its democracy. It's important to mention the (1) "fuel war." This term can refer to various conflicts and competitions over fuel resources, such as the geopolitical struggles for oil control or even the competition in blockchain networks known as gas wars. Each context highlights the significant impact of fuel on global dynamics and technological advancements.
These conflicts highlight the complex and interconnected nature of global politics today, emphasizing the need for diplomatic efforts and international cooperation to address these pressing issues.
The current geopolitical landscape is indeed complex and fraught with risks. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Russia's invasion, has drawn significant international attention and support for Ukraine from Western countries. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House adds another layer of uncertainty to the U.S. stance and global stability.
In the Middle East, tensions are high with the conflict between Hamas and Israel, involving multiple countries. U.S. interventions in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria have further complicated relations with Iran. Additionally, North Korea's aggressive actions and Taiwan's precarious position in East Asia contribute to the global tension.
The number of casualties in recent conflicts is alarming, with over 200,000 deaths in state wars in 2022 alone. The breakdown of communication and trust among major powers exacerbates the instability. Despite efforts to de-escalate conflicts, the actions of key players like Russia, Iran, and China, along with the unpredictable nature of global politics, keep the risk of further destabilization high.
However, is there still hope for peace? There is always hope, but so far, diplomatic solutions and international cooperation, which are crucial for preventing escalation and maintaining global stability, have not been very successful. The United Nations recently launched a "New Agenda for Peace," outlining a vision to strengthen multilateral efforts for peace and security. This agenda emphasizes the importance of diplomacy, regional security frameworks, and addressing the root causes of conflicts, such as inequalities and human rights violations.
Here's a summary of the key points from the sources mentioned:
1. **Crisis Group's List of Conflicts to Monitor in 2024**:
- The list includes Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan, and U.S.-China tensions.
2. **El País on Geopolitical and Economic Risks for 2024**:
- El País discusses geopolitical tensions, economic risks, the impact of central banks, instability in the Red Sea, and potential trade disruptions.
3. **Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2024**:
- The top risks include ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, potential political violence in the U.S. during the election, and broader tensions with China and Russia.
4. **Council on Foreign Relations' Risks for 2024**:
- The Council highlights risks such as domestic terrorism, U.S. political violence, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and potential migration from Central America and Mexico. Gabriel, S. A., Rosendahl, K. E., Egging, R. G., Avetisyan, H. G., & Siddiqui, S. (2012). (1) Cartelization in gas markets: Studying the potential for a “Gas OPEC”. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.05.014“In an ever-expanding and inflationary world, blogging presents considerable challenges. To sustain high-quality content in these times, we have invested in premium software, licenses, and copyrighted images, among other assets. Yet, we are not alone on this path. Over the past week, on "X," actions such as "liking" or "retweeting" are cost-free and completely confidential for you, courtesy of "Musk". Your support through these simple, yet free gestures is immensely appreciated in advance…
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!
Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
"Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."
Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.“We do not inherit the earth from our parents, we borrow it from our children.”
―Antoine De Saint-Exupery
“Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.
In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.
AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.
The creativity and dedication of Germán and his team to each project is evident in their artistic work.There has been a growing chorus of voices, including prominent figures like George Clooney, Barack Obama, and Michael Douglas, calling for the veteran politician to step aside. This is not uncommon; ineffective service often leads to replacement. Recently, several key Democrats have urged President Joe Biden to withdraw from his re-election campaign. While it's a difficult reality for the current president, many feel this reaction is overdue in our complex and often contentious world, is too late…
‘You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going’: Nervous world leaders greet Biden at NATO
Biden’s solo press conference Thursday will be the most critical set piece of the NATO Summit, both for the president and the alliance…
The article from POLITICO by Eli Stokols, Alexander Ward, and Jonathan Lemire, published on July 11, 2024, discusses the concerns of NATO allies regarding President Joe Biden's perceived physical and political frailty. The article highlights the tension at the NATO Summit, where leaders are worried about Biden's ability to lead and the potential return of Donald Trump, which could impact the alliance's stability and Ukraine's defense against Russia.The contrast couldn’t be starker: President Joe Biden, physically and politically frail, presiding over what could be his final NATO Summit at a moment when the alliance has never been so strong.
That tension is not lost on NATO officials from multiple European nations who say they are alarmed by Biden’s apparent decline and increasingly concerned at the prospect of seeing an ardent champion of the alliance replaced in November by a hostile Donald Trump.
NATO officials are both saddened at how Biden’s fortunes have turned and frustrated that the storyline has distracted from what was to be a celebratory summit. They are also increasingly resigned to his defeat this November, which they fear could halt or reverse the 32-member alliance’s recent momentum, threatening Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russia’s onslaught and the broader stability that has been the bedrock of the organization since its Cold War creation.
“It’s a very weird feeling to be in Europe listening to the president of the United States, and you’re more stressed about whether he will go off script than being excited to listen to the leader of the free world,” a senior European diplomat said. “You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going or whether he’s going to fall or what he’s going to forget or if he’ll say ‘North Korea’ when he meant ‘South Korea.’ It’s just a weird experience.”
As visiting leaders applauded his speech and exchanged warm smiles and handshakes, they and aides assessed him with an acute awareness of the context. They all registered the continuing fallout from Biden’s dismal June 27 debate performance two weeks ago, the ongoing drip of doubt among Democrats who no longer believe he can defeat Trump in November and the precarity of a moment when his candidacy seems to hang on every word and step.
“He didn’t look good,” said a Washington-based diplomat from one of those countries.
NATO officials are frustrated at how Biden’s political problems have distracted from what was to be a celebratory summit — and increasingly resigned to his defeat this November. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP
However closely watched Biden’s words and walking gait have been over the first two days of gatherings, his solo press conference Thursday evening will be the most critical set piece of the week, both for the president politically and the alliance.
“We would prefer a more stable situation in the U.S.,” said the official, who like others interviewed for this story were granted anonymity.
The overwhelming focus on Biden, some officials said, was diverting attention away from Trump and what it would mean if the Republican, who as president berated NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and threatened to withdraw from the alliance, returned to the White House.
“Everyone’s focusing on Biden’s appearance and less on Trump’s statements about NATO,” the senior European diplomat added. “He’s not that much younger.”
In a speech in Washington on Tuesday night, none other than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referenced November’s presidential election as critical, expressing optimism that the U.S. will remain committed to his country’s defense regardless of the outcome but urging NATO members to act with urgency and “not to wait for November.”
Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama, said that NATO allies, many of which have already accelerated defense spending in response to the war in Ukraine, would continue working toward greater strategic autonomy as it becomes more likely in their view that Trump may win.
“NATO allies understand that the probability of a Trump administration has gone up dramatically since the debate,” Daalder said. “That’s just a reality people have to deal with, so that means more outreach to the Trump camp in the short term and more determination by European allies to get to a place where those countries are doing more things on their own.”
When heads of state arrived on Wednesday morning for the first working session of NATO’s 75th anniversary summit, many of them took a turn at the “doorstep” microphone positioned before a long press riser to offer opening remarks focused mostly on alliance unity and support for Ukraine.
Hanno Pevkur: Ukraine 'should be our main focus'
But nearly everyone who spoke got hit with the same awkward questions about Biden’s weakened political position following his debate with Trump and what his electoral loss could mean for the alliance.
“I’m not going to comment on this topic,” said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who walked off after speaking for just a few minutes. Others responded mostly with platitudes about respecting America’s democratic process and professions of faith that NATO will endure even if Trump is ushered back into office.
Alexander Stubb, the American-educated president of Finland, one of NATO’s newest members, lamented the “toxic” level of political polarization in the U.S., while stating optimistically that Washington will continue to need European allies even if Trump wins in November.
“Of course we’re looking at elections throughout the world, and the American elections are very important,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. “But let’s be extremely clear, it’s the American citizens who will make their choice and that is a choice we will respect.”
De Croo, who met with Biden at the White House roughly a month ago, told reporters he found the president to have been “very clear on our objectives”; and he praised his Tuesday evening speech before NATO leaders at Mellon Auditorium as an “extremely strong statement.”
But when he was asked what he made of Biden’s shaky debate performance, De Croo shuffled away, eagerly ceding the microphone to another leader waiting in the wings.
“It’s incredibly awkward for our allies to get asked these questions about Biden’s mental acuity,” said Brett Bruen, a former State Department official under Obama. “They have their prepared pivot points, but it isn’t easy.”
The three-day NATO summit, which wraps up Thursday, was something of a diversion for Biden as he fights to contain a growing Democratic resistance to his reelection bid. But despite the difficulty of finding time for direct outreach to wobbly lawmakers and donors, the opportunity to play a leading role on the world stage, his aides believed, could go a long way toward assuaging doubts and reminding domestic political allies about the importance of experience and shared values.
His forceful and relatively crisp opening speech Tuesday emphasized his and NATO’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense and was well-received by lawmakers and pundits.
“Everyone was watching with bated breath as he took the stage,” said Rachel Rizzo, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. “He successfully quelled concerns because he came across as forceful and presidential. But his age and his ability to do this job for another four years are certainly questions European leaders are still asking themselves.”
Biden’s closest aides recognize that he can’t afford any public stumbles this week at the Washington summit, particularly in Thursday’s high-stakes news conference, according to the two officials. And even then, given the growing chorus of supporters calling on him to end his campaign, it might not be enough.
As Biden greeted all 31 leaders and posed for photos on Wednesday, foreign diplomats watching those formalities and the president’s scripted opening remarks at the start of the first private working session were glued to his movements, highly attuned to the tenor of his voice — waiting, in many cases, to see the version of the president they saw in that first debate.
Several foreign leaders, during their remarks upon arrival and at various panel discussions occurring on the summit sidelines this week, have addressed the growing possibility of Trump returning to the White House next year. Many have touted how 23 of the 32 member nations have reached or exceeded the shared goal that countries spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense — a major sticking point for Trump, who threatened to pull the U.S. out of the alliance at the 2018 summit in Brussels unless other countries shared more of the burden.
Biden affirms NATO commitment to Ukraine: 'Russia will not prevail'
Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, recalled Trump reading off a list of nations’ paltry spending levels at the 2018 summit. “Things have changed now,” he said, suggesting that the notion of “Trump-proofing” the alliance with new spending commitments and initiatives aimed at supporting the long term defense of Ukraine and Europe should be recast as “future-proofing” the alliance. “We have to understand it is in our own best interests to spend more…and that will give us an upper hand toward anyone in the White House.”
But given that Trump’s isolationist leanings are deeply ingrained in the U.S. — and have been for decades — a number of NATO leaders are somewhat frustrated that the focus on Biden may be drowning out their broader message for the American public during a summit on U.S. soil.
“The Americans need to hear from us all that the problem is not Ukraine,” said Baiba Braže, the Latvian foreign minister. “The problem is Russia.”
One official from a NATO country, who was granted anonymity to speak more candidly, lamented that little of the summit’s significant and substantive actions — including the announcement of air defense systems for Ukraine, a promise that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to NATO membership and major defense industrial base investments — won’t break through, at least with a U.S. audience.
“All the Americans are looking for at this summit is the photo op of Biden with allies,” the official said. “We’re really concerned that the world will essentially be leaderless for the next several months, and then we don’t know what comes after that.”
That nervousness about the prospect of Trump once again leading NATO’s most indispensable member country is deeply felt among officials and many heads of state, whose confident statements about the alliance maintaining its recent momentum cut against other expressions of real uncertainty.
“I am hoping, praying for, expecting the transatlantic alliance will be strong and alive also in the coming years,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday during an event at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Hopefully, no matter what happens in the U.S., that will be the case.”
Although there is still time for Biden to abandon his campaign, many visiting officials no longer believe he will be reelected should he remain in the race. Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur, for one, responded to a question earlier this week about future U.S. support for Ukraine by suggesting that the answer won’t be clear until January, speaking of Trump’s return as a foregone conclusion.
“I would like to see what the new administration will do,” Pevkur said. “What happens in January when the new president takes office?”
If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.
Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.
Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.