Germán & Co 6/8/24 Germán & Co 6/8/24

"Chaotic World" is a dataset created to study human behavior in chaotic events…

Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film "The Great Dictator" is a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship, primarily targeting the Nazi regime.

Happy Sabbat…

Last week, I wrote an article titled "A world that is fragmented and has a delicate glass ceiling"

… Four minor historical details help us comprehend our chaotic world. Still, modern radiography is perhaps in Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film The Great Dictator, a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship. It mainly targets the Nazi regime in this case, but other trends as well.

The extraordinary film Chaotic World is a dataset created to understand human behaviour in chaotic events, which could be relevant to understanding historical details that reflect the complexity of our world.

We can only hope that, like most films with dramatically polarizing situations, they will have a happy ending.

Discover an excerpt from a wonderful film in this post.

Image:media

Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film "The Great Dictator" is a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship, primarily targeting the Nazi regime.

Happy Sabbat…

Last week, I wrote an article titled "A world that is fragmented and has a delicate glass ceiling"

… Four minor historical details help us comprehend our chaotic world. Still, modern radiography is perhaps in Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film The Great Dictator, a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship. It mainly targets the Nazi regime in this case, but other trends as well.

The extraordinary film Chaotic World is a dataset created to understand human behaviour in chaotic events, which could be relevant to understanding historical details that reflect the complexity of our world.

We can only hope that, like most films with dramatically polarizing situations, they will have a happy ending.

Discover an excerpt from a wonderful film in this post.

Charlie Chaplin in The Great Dictator…

I’m sorry, but I don't want to be an Emperor. That's not my business. I don't want to rule or conquer anyone. I should like to help everyone if possible: Jew, Gentile, black man, white. We all want to help one another. Human beings are like that.

We want to live by each other's happiness, not by each other's misery. We don't want to hate and despise one another.
In this world there’s room for everyone and the good earth is rich, and can provide for everyone. The way of life can be free and beautiful, but we have lost the way.

Greed has poisoned men's souls, has barricaded the world with hate, has goose-stepped us into misery and bloodshed. We have developed speed, but we have shut ourselves in. Machinery that gives abundance has left us in want. Our knowledge has made us cynical. Our cleverness hard and unkind. We think too much, and feel too little. More than machinery, we need humanity. More than cleverness, we need kindness and gentleness. Without these qualities life will be violent, and all will be lost.

The aeroplane and the radio have brought us closer together.
The very nature of these inventions cries out for the goodness in men, cries out for universal brotherhood for the unity of us all. Even now, my voice is reaching millions throughout the world: millions of despairing men, women, and little children; victims of a system that makes men torture and imprison innocent people. To those who can hear me, I say “Do not despair."

The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed, the bitterness of men who fear the way of human progress. The hate of men will pass and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish.

Soldiers, don't give yourselves to brutes, men who despise you, enslave you, who regiment your lives, tell you what to do, what to think, and what to feel, who drill you, diet you, treat you like cattle, use you as cannon fodder. Don't give yourselves to these unnatural men, machine men, with machine minds and machine hearts. You are not machines, you are not cattle, you are men.
You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate, only the unloved hate, the unloved and the unnatural. Soldiers, don't fight for slavery, fight for liberty.

In the seventeenth chapter of Saint Luke it is written “The kingdom of God is within man.” Not one man, nor a group of men, but in all men. In you, you the people have the power, the power to create machines, the power to create happiness. You the people have the power to make this life free and beautiful, to make this life a wonderful adventure. Then, in the name of democracy, let us use that power. Let us all unite. Let us fight for a new world, a decent world that will give men a chance to work that will give youth a future and old age a security.

By the promise of these things brutes have risen to power, but they lie, they do not fulfill their promise. They never will. Dictators free themselves, but they enslave the people. Now let us fight to fulfill that promise. Let us fight to free the world. To do away with national barriers, to do away with greed, with hate and intolerance. Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all men's happiness.

Soldiers! In the name of democracy, let us all unite!

Look up! Look up! The clouds are lifting, the sun is breaking through. We are coming out of the darkness into the light. We are coming into a new world a kind new world where men will rise above their hate and brutality. The soul of man has been given wings, and at last, he is beginning to fly. He is flying into the rainbow, into the light of hope, into the future. That glorious future that belongs to you, to me and to all of us.
Look up! Look up.

According to Reuters, today's events in this chaotic world unfolded as follows:

Israel rescued four hostages in Gaza; Hamas stated that 210 Palestinians had been killed in the assault. An Israeli military spokesperson indicated that the hostage rescue operation had taken place under fire in the heart of a residential neighbourhood, where he asserted that Hamas had been hiding captives among Gaza civilians under guard by armed militants. / Norway’s Wealth Fund will vote against Musk’s $56 billion Tesla pay package. The fund also indicated it would vote on a shareholder proposal calling for Tesla to adopt a freedom of association and collective bargaining policy. This represents a victory for labour unions seeking to influence the U.S. carmaker. / South Korea’s young shamans revive an ancient tradition through social media. The appeal of shamanism has stood the test of time in one of the world’s most modern, high-tech nations. Young spiritual practitioners utilise social media accounts with hundreds of thousands of followers to reach clients. In the context of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, a senior aide to the Biden administration has suggested that the United States may consider increasing the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons. This suggestion comes despite the 2010 New START treaty between the United States and Russia, which sets a limit of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. Moscow suspended its participation in the previous year’s negotiations over the United States’ support for Ukraine. In a recent interview, President Putin stated that Russia does not require the use of nuclear weapons to achieve victory in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has asserted that Ukraine must determine its legitimacy, not for Putin to dictate it.

Four minor historical details help us comprehend the chaotic world in which we live.

The latest weekly edition focuses on discussing and analyzing ethical issues pertinent to the field in question. The different points of view expressed in these articles invite reflection on the importance of considering the moral framework in our daily decisions and actions, and we dedicate our time and effort, even on weekends and weekdays, until religious obligations prevent us from working to provide you with an unbiased analysis.

(https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/nax7ew5prkpht5e)

Your support has been overwhelming and is deeply appreciated. I must acknowledge that being a blogger is not easy. The impact of our content on platform 'X' last week, with one of our posts reaching nearly 3 million people within a day, receiving around a thousand likes, and being shared nine hundred times (https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1790282837196783887), has been truly motivating. Our score of 200K on Energy Central, placing us among the top ten influencers, and the invitations from LinkedIn experts for collaborative essays are all thanks to you. We are grateful for your role in our success.

The article addresses the difficulties of existing in a world affected by war and inflation, seemingly without an escape. To better understand these issues, we have chosen five essays that may shed light on the current predicament: “The war of religion in the 21st century…Germany and Russia’s volatile relationship in the 20th century…Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America…The Failures of America’s Foreign Policy…Today's big surprise: Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit…”

In a challenging world, the role of humor and everyday life is deemed essential for survival. The human dynamics surrounding the Lewinsky/Clinton and Stormy Daniels/Trump situations are examined from the standpoint of emotional and mundane considerations. This concise text examines the differing reactions of Presidents Clinton and Trump to their respective situations. President Clinton affably admitted his participation, declaring, "I cherished the time in a romantic way, without physical intimacy," The show emphasized the significance of non-physical contact and then came to a conclusion. Conversely, President Trump has denied any contact with the Playboy model, which has had negative consequences for the former president in the trial in New York; however, the final word is still pending. It is remarkable that former President Trump's campaign and the GOP raised $52.8 million following his conviction.

`In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central`

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Germán & Co 6/2/24 Germán & Co 6/2/24

A world that is fragmented and has a delicate glass ceiling…

* Manual of Ethics"

John Stuart Mackenzie (1860–1935), a British philosopher born near Glasgow, was educated at esteemed institutions such as the University of Glasgow, Cambridge, and Berlin. His 1929 work, "A Manual of Ethics", was a seminal contribution to the field. In this work, Mackenzie explored how the pursuit and accumulation of wealth and power in private, political, or religious spheres can undermine moral principles and values. His groundbreaking ideas have since become a cornerstone of modern ethical discourse. They have influenced our understanding of ethics, particularly in the areas of social justice, individual responsibility, and the role of power in shaping moral norms. This definition of ethics, characterised by a "fragmented world with a delicate glass ceiling", remains relevant today.

An anecdotal coincidence related to the publication of this essay was that 1929 was the year of organising the International Exposition of Barcelona. Suppose we consider this in relation to Spain's present-day fight to uphold democracy. Additionally, the second shoe belongs to the Mackenzie family, who immigrated to Argentina with Milei after enduring a harsh journey like the dramatic narrative of Edmondo De Amicis: "From the Apennines to the Andes". This narrative, while not directly related to Mackenzie's work, can be seen as a reflection of the ethical dilemmas and challenges individuals and families face in the pursuit of a better life. Mackenzie's father passed away upon their arrival in Argentina, leading to the return of the two brothers to England. This event, in the context of Mackenzie's ideas, raises questions about the role of personal ethics in making life-altering decisions. It may be interesting for both presidents (Sánchez-Milei) and us to consider this significant aspect of ethics. In simpler terms, we must let go of our archetypes. The powerful combination of egoism, avarice, and fear triggers war.

Four minor historical details help us comprehend the chaotic world in which we live.

This edition focuses on ethics, and we dedicate our time and effort, even on weekends and weekdays, until religious obligations prevent us from working to provide you with an unbiased analysis.

Wishing myself a good night and a very good morning to my dear friends...

KARLSTAD - JUNE 3, 2024

Image: Artwork by Germán & Co

* Manual of Ethics"

Four minor historical details help us comprehend the chaotic world in which we live.

This edition focuses on ethics, and we dedicate our time and effort, even on weekends and weekdays, until religious obligations prevent us from working to provide you with an unbiased analysis.

Wishing myself a good night and a very good morning to my dear friends...

KARLSTAD - JUNE 3, 2024

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

"At AES, we put a premium on conducting business with the highest standards of integrity," said Paul Freedman, AES General Counsel. "AES has always been a values-driven company, and our people share a common purpose of working to improve lives and accelerating a greener, smarter energy future."

"Ethics matter. Organizations that commit to business integrity through robust programs and practices not only elevate standards and expectations for all, but also have better long-term performance," said Ethisphere CEO, Erica Salmon Byrne. "We continue to be inspired by the World's Most Ethical Companies honorees and their dedication to making real impact for their stakeholders and displaying exemplary values-based leadership. Congratulations to AES for earning a place in the World's Most Ethical Companies community."

In 2023, 135 honorees were recognized spanning 19 countries and 48 industries.

The World's Most Ethical Companies announcement follows other recent honors recognizing AES' leading business practices, including being named one of the World's Most Innovative Companies by Fast Company; one of the 100 Just Companies in the US by JUST Capital; one of the Top 250 Best Managed Companies by the Wall Street Journal and The Drucker Institute; and as one of America's Most Responsible Companies by Newsweek.

`Photograph by Germán & Co captured in Moscow, 1986.`

The war of religion in the 21st century…

Russia's war on Ukraine: The religious dimension

By European Parliamentary Research Service Author: Fearghas O'Beara, Members' Research Service PE 729.355 – April 2022

“The collapse of the Soviet Union (USSR), which had ruthlessly oppressed religion, led to a significant increase in church membership, religious belief, and practice in many of the successor states”.

“Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 drew attention to the close relationship between Vladimir Putin's regime and the Russian Orthodox Church. The latter has strongly backed Putin's war and has long provided theological and ideological justifications for his domestic and international actions. The Church's overtly political approach has contributed to deep divisions within the wider Orthodox world, including a formal split with the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and significant tensions with the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople.”

The role of religion in Putin's regime…

A recent Pew Forum survey found that 71 % of Russians identified as Orthodox, along with 78 % of Ukrainians, 73 % of Belarusians and 92 % of Moldovans. A newly confident Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) viewed itself as a repository of Russian national identity, and Moscow as the 'third Rome' with primacy over the Orthodox Churches in those countries and beyond. At home, Putin has passed laws targeting 'non-traditional' religious minorities with fines, detention and criminal charges.

The ROC quickly aligned itself with the Putin regime, a process accelerated since the election of Kirill as 'Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia' in 2009. Claiming canonical jurisdiction over much of the former USSR territory, the current 'Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church' permanent membership includes, inter alia, metropolitans(bishops) of 'All Ukraine', 'All Belarus', 'All Moldova', Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The key doctrine elaborated by the Church, in tandem with the regime, over the past decades is the Russkiy Mir or 'Russian world', (however 'mir' also translates as peace). This ideology envisages a quasi-messianic role for Russia in saving Christian civilisation from the decadent West through the spreading of Russian language, culture and values, by re-dominating countries formerly within the USSR, and exerting influence throughout the wider Orthodox and Western world. In 2007, Putin established the Russkiy Mir Foundation, which de facto spreads this ideology around the world, working in close cooperation with the ROC.

On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians…

Thus, various experts have suggested that Russia's war on Ukraine has a religious dimension, and that Putin's desire to conquer Kyiv is part of a 'spiritual quest'. Putin himself laid out his Greater Russia vision in a long article in July 2021, entitled *'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians'. In it, he claims that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are the same people whose 'common baptismal font' is Kyiv with the conversion to Christianity of Prince Volodymir (Vladimir in Russian) in 988. The narrative makes clear that Russia's enemies are located to the west. These, especially at the end of the 16th century, were 'Polonising and Latinising' Russian lands and 'ousting Orthodoxy'. Putin compares the creation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church to those past events, clearly omitting the Ukrainian perspective. For Putin, Ukrainian identity or statehood have 'no historical basis' and are a geo-political tool to weaken Russia. The current Ukrainian leadership are characterised as 'radicals and neo-Nazis', and Putin leaves no doubt that his intention is to create 'a single large nation, a triune nation'.

Division within eastern Orthodox Christianity Long before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the close alignment between the ROC and the Putin regime had contributed to splits within Orthodoxy. The ROC suspended its own membership of the Conference of European Churches in 2008. Ever since Ukrainian independence in 1991, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church had been seeking autonomy, culminating in the recognition of its independent status by the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople Bartholomew I in 2019, a goal on which former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was personally engaged. Already, in 2016, when the Ecumenical Patriarch attempted to hold the first global Council of the Orthodox Church in Crete, it was boycotted by the ROC, but also by the Bulgarian and Georgian Orthodox Churches, both under strong Moscow influence.

The invasion has accelerated these divisions. Within Ukraine, a significant part of the church had remained faithful to Moscow, as a filial entitled the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. Nevertheless, its leader, Metropolitan Onufriy, has appealed to Putin for an 'immediate end to the fratricidal war', referring unambiguously to Russia's 'military action against Ukraine'. Russia's war has also been condemned by the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, as well as leaders of the Orthodox Churches of Romania, Greece, and even Georgia, which had aligned itself with Moscow in the past. Another initiative was taken by a group of Orthodox theologians, who issued a 'Declaration on the Russian World (Russkii Mir) Teaching', condemning the 'fundamentalist, totalitarian' character of the doctrine promoted by the ROC under Kirill, which had ultimately led to 'Putin's unconscionable and horrendously destructive invasion of Ukraine'.

Divisions have also emerged within Russia itself; on 2 March a group of 233 ROC priests launched an appeal for peace, urging Russian soldiers be brought home, and stating that Ukrainians should be allowed to decide their own destiny.

Peace initiatives of religious actors…

While Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been described by some as a 21st century 'religious war', the EU has increasingly engaged with religious actors in pursuing its foreign policy goals, including tapping into their potential for conflict resolution and peacebuilding. In the current context of a split within Orthodoxy, some quiet religious diplomacy by Western Christian church leaders has taken place. Notably, Russian Patriarch Kirill took part in two distinct on-line meetings on 16 March, with the Archbishop of Canterbury, head of the worldwide Anglican Church, and with Pope Francis, head of the Roman Catholic Church.

The Pope's Nuncio (ambassador) to Ukraine – a Lithuanian archbishop who previously served at the nunciature in Moscow – has remained in place in Kyiv and continues to liaise with Ukrainian political and church authorities. On 8 March he received a letter from the Mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Klitschko, inviting Pope Francis to visit the city, as a means of 'paving the path to peace in our city, country and beyond'. While the Pope has not ruled out such a visit, given the view of Patriarch Kirill that Ukraine is part of his 'canonical territory', it could be counter-productive. Francis and Kirill have only met once, in Havana in 2016, so an alternative démarche could be a meeting on 'neutral ground'. Vatican insiders have speculated that one possibility would be Jerusalem, as Francis could stop off on his forthcoming visit to Lebanon, which he announced on 21 March.

In parallel to contacts at the highest level, there have been exchanges between the Russian Orthodox and Catholic Churches at the level of their respective international and EU affairs arms. The Commission of Catholic Bishops' Conferences of the EU (COMECE) called upon Patriarch Kirill to 'appeal to Russian authorities to immediately stop the hostilities against the Ukrainian people', stressing his influence among Russian people. However, in his reply, Metropolitan Hilarion, Chair of the ROC's Department for External Church Relations, posited the war as a crisis 'between the West and Russia', referred to the 'long-suffering land of Ukraine' and reiterated their view that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church is part of the Moscow Patriarchate. All these positions align closely with the official narrative of the Kremlin. Hilarion also suggested that COMECE should work with the EU 'in order to prevent further escalation', an indication of where the ROC considers fault for the war lies.

Meanwhile, the World Council of Churches (WCC), of which the Russian Orthodox Church has been a member since 1961, wrote to Kirill on 2 March asking for his mediation 'so that the war can be stopped'. The (Romanian Orthodox) Acting General-Secretary of the WCC called on the Patriarch of Moscow to 'raise up your voice on behalf of the suffering brothers and sisters, most of whom are also faithful members of our Orthodox Church'. In his response on 10 March, Kirill again used Kremlin rhetoric, viewing the war as a confrontation 'between the West and Russia', stating that Western 'political forces' had conspired to use Ukraine to 'make brotherly people’s enemies', and that all Western efforts to integrate Ukraine were founded upon a 'geopolitical strategy aimed at weakening Russia'.

The reply also laid the blame on the Ecumenical Patriarch for the schism in Orthodoxy, by recognising an independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church in 2019. This could limit the scope of Bartholomew to mediate towards a peaceful solution, a potential role suggested by European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas following his exchange with the Ecumenical Patriarch on 19 March.

*https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-plan-for-a-new-russian-empire-includes-both-ukraine-and-belarus/

Germany and Russia’s volatile relationship in the 20th century

Germany and the Russian invasion of Ukraine…

Written by Takeshitaka Kiwasaki, professor at the Sophia University of Japan, on November 23, 2023.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, the recently-elected German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faced a dilemma, one shaped by the historical relationship between Germany and Russia. In February 2022, the Russian army invaded Ukraine. NATO member states were unanimous in condemning Russia and immediately imposed economic sanctions.

However, Germany, the de facto leader of the EU, was so passive in its approach that the U.S. criticized it for being “out of step” with its allies. Why was this? Many countries around the world are either outright in their support of Russia or have officially declared neutrality but, in practice, are helping Russia by not participating in economic sanctions. For the Japanese, such a stance may appear inexplicable.

But to understand why such a stance is rational for these countries—or, more accurately, for their incumbent governments—we must investigate the current state of their politics, economies, and diplomacy and their histories. We can illuminate their trains of thought by taking a multifaceted and broad view of these countries’ relations with Russia, their economies, and their cultures.

The tumultuous relationship between Germany and Russia in the 20th century

The history of German-Russian relations is a seesaw of discord and compromise: the two countries were unable to trust each other, but they were also unable to sever ties. Even today, many Germans would prefer to leave a path open for Russia to reconcile with Europe—despite its transgressions—rather than see Russia become a client state of China. In this respect, Germany is at odds with the U.S., which has publicly stated its intention to critically weaken Russia—a country it views as an adversary.

During the Second World War, Nazi Germany unilaterally ripped up the non-aggression pact it had signed with the Soviet Union (present-day Russia), invaded its erstwhile fellow signatory, and, for a while, occupied Ukraine and another Soviet territory. However, the Soviets ultimately won the war. Germany was divided, and East Germany fell under the influence of the U.S.S.R.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany in 1990 resulted in the independence of Russia and Ukraine. Since then, Germany has adopted a liberal form of diplomacy toward Russia, believing that deepening economic cooperation would help discourage political confrontations and disputes. Germany relies on Russia for much of its natural gas supply.

Indeed, former Chancellor Angela Merkel devoted great energy to building the Nord Stream, an undersea pipeline that enabled Germany to bypass politically unstable Ukraine when importing natural gas from Russia. Yet Merkel also supported the Westernization of Ukraine and actively worked to remedy the situation after Russia had annexed Crimea.

Germany has struggled to balance humanitarian needs with a desire not to antagonize Russia. The role of area studies in building peace A relationship of trust that Germany thought it had built with President Vladimir Putin collapsed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz faced a dilemma: safeguard the economic interests of the German public or succumb to the international community’s demands for cooperation, particularly on humanitarian issues.

This dilemma is crucial in understanding why Germany was so lukewarm in its condemnation of Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. In retaliation for the sanctions imposed upon Russia, President Putin has suspended natural gas exports, while the economic community has all but given up on Russia; for these reasons, Chancellor Scholz is gradually being compelled to side with the U.S. Although public opinion has—perhaps inevitably—hardened against the Putin administration, German society remains divided.

The Scholz administration is trying to identify the most appropriate response. Bilateral relations do not reverse overnight; they are intimately linked to the two countries’ histories, cultures, economies, and national traits. We must strengthen mutual understanding by learning from each other’s experiences and sharing knowledge to build peace.

A Secret But Not a Secret...

Finally, some, despite all the warnings of the United States and other European countries, on September 26, 2022, by causing significant damage to three pipes belonging to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, tried to erase all the links between Russia and Germany, politically naive and practically impossible. According to Spiegel International on August 26, 2023 (read the full article on www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24-dxjl5-h6lly-jx95h-dalp4-6zlrk-fmre6-7zbng), the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea indicates that Kyiv-supposedly-may be responsible. The revelation may alarm the international community and prompt adjustments in world politics that would ultimately benefit Germany. Investigators have spent the last year tirelessly searching for the truth behind the explosion. The blast was a significant event that unfolded and shook the foundations of Germany's energy sector with profound implications across Europe's economy.

`Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.`

The European energy crisis and the consequences for the global natural gas market

The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) by Simone Emiliozzi, Fabrizio Ferriani and Andrea Gazzani, 11 January 2024

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine severely disrupted European gas markets. Energy costs rose steeply, global natural gas flows were significantly reoriented, and policymakers’ focus shifted towards energy security. This column examines how the conflict has reshaped the natural gas market, with an emphasis on the role of liquefied natural gas. Europe has become a major importer of liquefied natural gas, crowding out imports to Latin America and Asia. Its gas market is becoming more integrated and global. Nonetheless, the outlook for the natural gas market remains subject to high uncertainty.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine constituted a significant breach of the global geopolitical order and of national sovereignty, with profound economic consequences that extend well beyond the direct effect of the war. These include, among others, a marked deterioration of the world macroeconomic outlook (Garicano et al. 2022, Albrizio et al. 2022, Alessandri and Gazzani 2023), disruptions in trade (World Bank 2022), and strong shockwaves across financial and commodity markets (Ferriani and Gazzani 2022, Boungou and Yatié 2022).

In a recent study (Emiliozzi et al. 2023), we focus on the impact of the war on energy commodity markets, and in particular on the reshaping of global energy flows, with a specific emphasis on the changes in the natural gas market. Up until 2021, Russia was the primary European provider of both natural gas and crude oil imports, accounting for 44% and 28% of the total extra-EU imports, respectively. Since the autumn of 2021, Russia’s weaponisation of its natural gas exports in response to the standoff on the Nord-Stream II pipeline approval contributed to a steady increase in natural gas prices. This trend deteriorated after the start of the conflict, with piped gas from Russia progressively diminishing throughout 2022 and causing widespread disruptions in energy markets. The conflict affected Europe first and foremost, although it produced global reverberations and sparked a worldwide reconfiguration of energy commodity flows for both natural gas and oil (Babina et al. 2023).

In this context, liquefied natural gas (LNG) emerged as a significant new player in the natural gas market, providing a critical contribution to ensure Europe’s energy security. LNG replaced a substantial portion of Russian pipeline exports to Europe, fundamentally changing the structure of the European gas market from regional and segmented into one that is more integrated and global.

Global reshuffle in LNG flows

Historically, European countries mainly relied on piped gas to satisfy their gas consumption needs and absorbed excess supply at convenient prices from the global LNG market, whose main traditional importers had been Asian countries (China, Japan, South Korea). Since mid-2021, Europe had to draw significant amounts from the LNG market to compensate the foregone Russian imports and started to act as a major LNG importer worldwide (Figure 1). In 2022 European LNG imports surged by almost 60% on a yearly basis and, notably, the share of LNG over total European supply soared to 53% from an average of 20% between 2000 and 2019.

Figure 1 LNG imports by world region and major importer nation

`Notes: CIS stands for Commonwealth of Independent States; BCM stands for billions of cubic metres. Source: Energy Institute (2023).`

To bolster this upward trend, European countries made substantial investments to expand their regasification infrastructure so they may further exploit the potential of the LNG market in the future. Notably, Germany, which had no LNG terminal until the end of 2022, has outlined plans to install several facilities. However, due to constraints on the expansion of the LNG supply in the short term, Europe’s rise as a LNG importer also crowded out imports in other regions such as Latin America (-11 billion cubic metres in 2022 with reference to 2021) and Asia (-24 billion cubic metres). 1 The countries most affected have been emerging and developing economies that could not compete with Europe for LNG cargoes due to skyrocketing gas prices.

For both geographical reasons (LNG transportation is costly) and contractual (the US mainly relies on spot trades, in contrast to the other two major LNG producers – Australia and Qatar), the US emerged as the primary supplier of Europe in this novel configuration of the global gas market (Figure 2). While total US LNG exports expanded by 10% due to supply constraints (see above), flows towards Europe more than doubled (+140%) in 2022 on a yearly basis. Conversely, US exports to Asia halved and those to Latin America fell by about 70%. The drop in these LNG flows was only partially compensated by the mildly increased imports to Asia and Latin America from Qatar and Australia.

Figure 2 LNG exports by world region, 2021–2022 variation

The global LNG supply market is poised to increase significantly in 2025, benefiting from several LNG facilities coming online in the US. Consequently, the LNG market balances are expected to soften with benefits for the European economies in terms of energy security and procurement costs.

European policy response to the crisis

Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, a strong policy response was put in place to counter the effects of the energy crisis. Adopted policy measures can be divided into two main categories: (i) structural measures that address natural gas consumption, supply, and storage, and (ii) fiscal relief measures primarily intended to support firms and households affected by surging gas and energy prices.

In terms of structural measures, in March 2022, the EU heads of state issued the Versailles Declaration, outlining the pillars of the EU’s response to the energy crisis. These pillars were later incorporated in the EU Commission’s REPowerEU plan (May 2022), the central policy framework for the EU’s energy strategy. The plan aims to rapidly reduce the dependence on Russian fossil fuels and guarantee the long-term sustainability and stability of the EU energy system. The plan’s principles were implemented through regulatory interventions that set storage capacity targets, introduced gas consumption reductions, and established a joint gas-purchasing facility and a correction mechanism to curb gas prices. Moreover, EU countries enhanced their LNG capacities and expanded import terminals, trying to diversify natural gas suppliers and forming partnerships with non-Russian counterparts to boost LNG and piped gas imports.

To mitigate the effects of energy prices on both households and firms, EU governments also adopted several fiscal support measures in the form of energy tax abatements, energy price ceilings, and fiscal transfers to vulnerable parts of the population. These measures inevitably burdened governments’ finances: European countries allocated over €650 billion between September 2021 and January 2023 to address the impact of the energy crisis. The lion’s share of this sum was put in by Germany, which adopted fiscal measures for around €158 billion, while Italy and France allocated approximately €90 billion each (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Government response to the energy crisis among selected European countries, September 2021 to January 2023

At the euro-area level, fiscal interventions for 2022 amounted to roughly 2% of the bloc’s GDP (Checherita-Westphal and Dorrucci 2023). Yet, the application of several national measures in an untargeted manner raised concerns about the absence of a coordinated EU energy policy, which could potentially exacerbate competitive challenges in the EU and undermine the EU single market (Ferriani and Gazzani 2023, Bialek et al. 2023).

Conclusions and outlook

The Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed the world to an unparalleled energy crisis that brought energy security at the centre of both the policy and academic debate. Though the crisis reverberated globally and spilled over to other energy commodities, Europe stood at the epicentre of the shock, experiencing massive spikes in natural gas and electricity prices. The conflict in Ukraine has prompted a reshuffling of the flows in the global energy market: Europe, historically a locally integrated area with heavy dependence on imports from a primary supplier, is transforming by broadening its sources and in particular enhancing its integration with the LNG market, which is thus emerging as a key factor to close market imbalances across geographical areas.

Going forward, the outlook for the natural gas market remains subject to high uncertainty, with price volatility potentially resurging from factors such as weather-related conditions, further halts to Russian gas deliveries to Europe, increasing pressure in the global LNG market – especially if China’s demand were to fully recover, and new threats and disruptions to European energy infrastructures (e.g. the Balticconnector incident).

The 2022–2023 energy crisis has emphasised the potential of the clean-energy transition in guaranteeing affordable energy supplies and aligning economic trajectories with decarbonisation. If uncoordinated policies persist, energy costs may impact Europe’s international competitiveness and, in turn, its internal market cohesion. As Europe moves towards a clean-energy paradigm, investments in renewable energy should be accompanied by a long-term strategy to address potential vulnerabilities arising from critical minerals necessary for the transition (Leruth et al. 2022, Kowalski and Legendre 2023). This approach is crucial to prevent a repeat of the vulnerabilities experienced during the natural gas crisis while transitioning to electrification.

Disclaimer: this column does not necessarily reflect the view of the Bank of Italy or the European System of Central Banks.

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Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America

There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.

"The Diplomat" by R. Evan Ellis, October 21, 2023.

On October 12-13, 2023, the Jack D. Gordon Institute of Florida International University (FIU) hosted an event bringing together Africa and Latin America scholars, to comparatively examine engagement with China across both regions. The discussions highlighted substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, as well as differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.

China’s public engagement in the two regions is shaped by its globally-oriented policy documents, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and more recently, the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). China works hard interacting with its partners to secure statements from them regarding their support for, or participation in, these initiatives as well as reiterating that they recognize Beijing over Taipei.

For both Africa and Latin America, China has issued policy papers to proclaim its priorities and areas of focus in advancing its relationships. These include the 2008 China-Latin America white paper, updated in 2016, and China-Africa white papers in 2006, 2015, and 2021. In both regions, China’s public actions have been fairly consistent with the general intentions set out in these documents.

In its multilateral diplomacy, Beijing’s forum of choice has been the Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Africa and the China-CELAC Forum in Latin America and the Caribbean. Both are weakly-institutionalized umbrella organizations where China’s geopolitical rivals, the United States and European Union, are absent, and where Beijing can advance its own agenda, with limited possibilities for the regions to forge collective positions to effectively bargain with China.

With both FOCAC and the China-CELAC forum, Beijing created a structure that meets every three years at the head of state level, each time producing a roadmap for the region’s cooperation with China for the next three years. Both have established eight sub-forums, including on “people-to-people” interactions, and on “young leaders.” For Latin America, the remaining sub-forums focus on agriculture, science, and business, whereas in Africa, they focus on health, development, and media engagement, among others. Both groupings also have ad hoc forums that bring together personnel at the ministerial level, and other levels like ambassadorial and director general level, on specific topics, such as security.

In the commercial domain, China has substantially expanded its engagement with both regions in the past two decades, running a substantial trade surplus with each. With both Africa as well as Latin America, and the Caribbean, China principally purchases low value-added commodities and foodstuffs from regional countries, while selling them a broad array of higher value added, higher technology-content goods and services. With both regions, China exploits hopes for benefit through access to its markets, or partnerships for projects in local markets, to motivate cooperation, and often self-censorship regarding the actions of China government and its companies.

In Latin America, hopes for market access have led governments to seek free trade agreements (FTAs) with China more extensively than in Africa. Latin American states that have achieved or actively negotiated FTAs with China include Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Panama. In Africa, China’s only FTA is with Mauritius, although countries like Kenya and Egypt have shown interest in pursuing their own trade deals with China.

In Africa as in Latin America and the Caribbean, China has used loans, in part, to advance its commercial engagements, with $170 billion in Chinese policy bank loans to Africa, and $136 billion to Latin America in the past two decades. In both regions, that lending fell off substantially after 2016. In both Africa and Latin America, China has avoided cooperating with multinational lender groups such as the “Paris Club” to collectively negotiate debt relief for countries that cannot pay. With both Suriname in Latin America and Zambia in Africa, China’s position as a “holdout” substantially complicated negotiations with multilateral institutions to renegotiate debt.

In both Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, China is pursuing access to lithium, including investment in local processing facilities. China’s lithium footprint is larger in Latin America, with multiple companies and projects in Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, and Mexico. In Africa, however, a Jianxi-based company has a project to mine and transform lithium in the south of Zimbabwe. In both regions, in the construction sector, China-based companies are diversifying from state-to-state projects financed by public debt, to also participating in public bids in more strongly institutionalized states, and the use of public-private partnerships (PPP) in which they invest some of their own capital, and take on a longer-term role in the project.

In both Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, China-based companies have expanded their presence in electricity transmission and generation, particularly in renewable energy. Chinese companies have a leading position in the electric car and bus market in Africa as well as Latin America. In both Africa and Latin America, China-based companies have dominated sensitive digital sectors, including 5G, but also in other telecommunications infrastructure, having built 70 percent of Africa’s 4G infrastructure.

Chinese companies such as Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, and Oppo also play a leading role in the digital device market in both regions. In both Latin America and Africa, Chinese companies are offering smart and safe city architectures, while Chinese surveillance systems companies including Hikvision and Dahua have a dominant presence in the commercial market.

In both regions, China has established Confucius Institutes, with 44 in Latin America (10 of those in the Caribbean), and 56 in Africa. China builds connections with youth through scholarships for study in China, and a range of other “people-to-people” programs bringing thousands of journalists, academics, and government personnel to China for often lavish interactions. In both regions, China works at the local as well as national level, including sister city relationships, and courting mayors and other subnational-level officials who often have more latitude than national-level figures to accept Beijing’s generosity for themselves, their families, and their communities.

In the space domain, China has launched five satellites for African countries and 12 for Latin America. It has also help construct ground control facilities in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ethiopia, among others, and played a key role in training partner nation space personnel in those countries. In both regions, China has established space radar facilities, including in Neuquén in Argentina, and Swakopmund in Namibia.

In security cooperation, China has gone further in Africa than in Latin America, including a military base in Djibouti, regular participation in peacekeeping missions in Africa, and the conduct of some security operations on the ground and in maritime areas there. In Latin America, China participated in one peacekeeping operation in Haiti, MINUSTAH, from 2004-2012, has deployed its hospital ship, Peace Ark, to the region on three occasions, and periodically sends warships and military delegations to visit.

China has sold military hardware to both regions, including fighter aircraft, radars, and various vehicles. In both Latin America and Africa, China has used donations to both military and police forces to strengthen relationships and create opportunities for subsequent arms sales.

China has also regularly brought security personnel from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa to China for training. In Africa, China occasionally pays the operating expenses and salaries of security forces. In Latin America, the closest comparison has been payments by Chinese mining companies to Peruvian police to provide private security to their operations. Chinese private security companies are more active in Africa but are beginning to establish a presence in Latin America as well.

Overall, the inaugural FIU Africa Americas event demonstrated that the patterns in Chinese engagement across regions, and associated differences, are worth studying, to better understand Beijing’s decision-making, to anticipate the evolution of China’s global engagement, and to help each region learn from the other regarding best practices, and how to manage risks and increase the likelihood of hoped for benefits when engaging with China.

`Cecil Stoughton, from the White House and in the public domain via Wikimedia Commons, captured President John F. Kennedy in a meeting with the Executive Committee of the National Security Council (EXCOMM) concerning the Cuban crisis in October 1962, a period often seen as a pinnacle of U.S. power and global relations.`

The Failures of America’s Foreign Policy

For the first time in decades, America’s influence on the global stage is declining after poor foreign policy decisions, and we’re running out of time to stop it.

The Science Survey, Oliver Whelan, Staff Reporter | January 18, 2023

As Americans, we’re constantly reminded of our country’s recent failures. In the news, bold print headlines describe the latest setbacks. Investment portfolios depreciate and the stock market falters due to an impending recession. Even at home, energy and fuel bills skyrocket, caused by oil sanctions and supply cuts. Our international allies suffer as well; Ukraine is fending off a Russian invasion, which some believe to be the current President Joseph R. Biden’s fault, Taiwan faces the threat of a war with China, and European countries have begun to lose faith in America’s ability to protect them, which has led them to compensate with a dangerous level of militarization. As the impacts of a weakened America are undeniably felt throughout the world, it is time to address the hard truth: America’s foreign policy is failing, and we’re running out of time to do something about it.

Twenty years ago, if you said America wouldn’t be the preeminent superpower for decades to come, nobody would believe you. Now, it seems as if America is merely a trailing competitor against China and Russia in a race for global dominance. A strengthening Russo-China alliance has alarmed Europe since their combined economic and militaristic power could rival NATO, and by extension, the U.S. To compound it, China and Russia have worked to establish relationships with anti-American states, such as Afghanistan, which has spread their spheres of influence into regions that could possibly pose a threat to U.S. international security.

Americans know this shift of power didn’t happen overnight, or even as the result of a single presidency. Since the start of the millennium, we have witnessed backward policies, international concessions, and an emphasis on external reliance chip away at America’s integrity. But only now are we starting to feel its impacts.

I spoke with Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at a public policy think tank called the American Enterprise Institute, who agreed: U.S. foreign policy is not nearly as effective as it once was. “The United States has not implemented a coherent strategy for more than a quarter century,” he said. “Either the State Department has been entirely reactive rather than proactive, or there has been a strategy such as George W. Bush’s democracy agenda that went entirely unimplemented.” It’s true. Many agree that the U.S.’s involvement with the Dayton Accords in the 1990’s, which brought an end to a four year war in Bosnia, was the last great triumph of American foreign policy.

“During the Cold War, America was very, very involved in other countries in Europe and Asia. [America was] deeply involved in those countries and propping up their governments, putting a lot of money and investments into [them, especially] putting military resources to those countries for the sake of countering Russia,” explained a research associate for The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) who wished to remain unnamed. “When 9/11 happened, I think it was a big shock because America realized that we were not invincible and we were vulnerable, even in our homeland.”

Most Americans view the year 2000 as the pinnacle of American strength, and they also agree that everything went downhill after it. A survey conducted by the Morning Consult said Americans felt “a greater sense of security” in that year, which makes sense given that America had just emerged as the sole superpower of the world after the end of the Cold War nearly ten years before. The year after, the attacks of 9/11 wrenched America out of its brief period of uncontested strength, and into a new era of war and a heightened sense of American-centrism. Just as the attack on Pearl Harbor in the ’40s and the “Nuke Terror” of the ‘50s had launched America into a new phase, September 11th changed America, and it hasn’t been the same since.

“[The attacks] made us a little more defensive and a little bit less focused on going around the world involved with others,” CFR elaborated. “We are still very focused on international relations, but it made us more vulnerable and made the U.S. more concerned about possible threats.”

A non-governmental entity from across the globe had managed to do more damage to the mainland U.S than two world wars and a nuclear standoff with Russia had. Naturally, people gravitated to more defensive and self-centered policies after 2001. From this re-emerged the “America First” ideology. The term was coined by Woodrow Wilson in his 1916 presidential campaign. Despite its emergence being roughly a century before, “America First” appealed to post-9/11 policy makers because, as Wilson intended, the policy emphasized non-interventionism, and many believed U.S. interference in the Middle East, like America’s association with Israel, a state frequently characterized as “anti Islamic”, caused the attacks.

We still feel the impacts of nationalism and non-interventionism in our foreign policy today. Only a couple years ago, former President Donald J. Trump instated a foreign policy that focused heavily on “America First.” Throughout his term, he prioritized benefiting America, which meant reneging many alliances and partnerships, often leading to weakened international relations.

I interviewed Anthony Arend, Professor of Government and Foreign Service and Chair of the Department of Government at Georgetown University, who elaborated on the impacts of a self-centered America. “This idea [of “America First”] – which is not new to U.S. history – produced disastrous effects. It empowered Putin to engage in the invasion of Ukraine and likely emboldened authoritarians in a variety of countries. Moreover, it raised doubts among our allies that we were reliable alliance partners.”

It has been a recent presidential trend to drastically change foreign policy every time a new president takes office. Mr. Trump’s presidential term is known for rolling back many of former President Barack Obama’s deals, like the Paris Climate Agreement and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he said forced the U.S. to make concessions. Now, President Biden has tried to reverse some of Mr. Trump’s changes by re-entering the Paris Agreement and reopening diplomatic ties that were severed. Despite this, significant damage has already been done as this “hot and cold” dynamic within U.S. foreign policy has caused international weariness. More than anything, these past two presidencies signify a larger theme of how America’s weakened and internal structure has in turn negatively impacted our international relations.

While it’s uncertain when political polarization started in the U.S., we know that former President Trump’s run for office in 2016 ignited an unprecedented amount of political division. This estrangement spanned beyond voters. The Supreme Court now has a 6-3 republican majority after former President Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil M. Gorsuch. We also see other governmental bodies, like congress, find it increasingly more difficult to agree on and pass legislation due to polarization, which has stalled overall advancement.

“Because the country is so divided and because the Republican and Democratic Parties are so polarized…, it’s getting harder to pass international relations bills or agreements that need support from both political parties,” continued CFR. Interestingly, when it comes to foreign policy, the right tends toward nationalism (and increasingly “America first”) while the left tends toward interventionism, despite both parties ultimately working towards the same goal. “I think the concept [of “America First”] betrays itself,” CFR added. “What I mean by that is that the idea of “America First” is, instead of putting so much money and military resources all around the world…let’s focus on our own citizens. I think the problem is, because we are the greatest power in the world. If the U.S. truly enacted an “America First” policy, that would allow countries like Russia and China to take a more aggressive approach on the global stage because we wouldn’t be there to stop them.”

While both sides of the political spectrum believe that their foreign policies are more effective than the other’s, in fact, neither is singularly better. This is because the U.S. government, especially when dealing with international relations, relies heavily on internal collaboration, not only on parties, but on strategies, ideas, and other aspects. We have seen how a divided government crumbles when faced with true, global adversity — COVID-19. Our COVID-19 pandemic response was a catastrophic failure simply because the government couldn’t agree how to address the threat.

Mr. Rubin emphasized the importance of cooperation as well, stating, “Diplomacy never works alone. Strategists talk about the DIME model: every strategy should have diplomatic, informational, military, and economic components. Often, Americans sequence the strategies but in reality the whole is always greater than the sum of the parts. Consider Iran, for example. Trying diplomacy is all well and good, but does sanctions relief prior to agreements reduce leverage in a way that makes a good agreement more difficult?”

Though the most imminent threat to U.S. foreign policy is internal division, the impending threat, and one that the U.S. will have to struggle to overcome, is China. In recent years, China has become the world’s largest economy, overtaking the U.S. by about 20 percent. With its population already more than four times that of the U.S.’s, and only technological sophistication and militaristic assets being the differentiating factor between it and the U.S., many say it is only a matter of time before China overtakes the U.S. as the world’s new superpower. Certainly, on our current trajectory, the U.S. is falling behind.

It’s hard to predict what a world where China is the sole superpower will look like, but it’s clear that if it happens, the U.S. will lose much of its global influence that lingered from its “golden days” of diplomacy. We are already starting to see China expand its presence beyond Asia and into distant countries, particularly in African countries. We can expect to see more instances like the negotiation of the Iran Nuclear Deal, where the U.S. was forced to make concessions to reach agreement, and even still, the deal only made both sides uneasy. Recently, the U.S. and Iran have discussed reopening negotiations, but this time, with China’s increased involvement.

What this signifies, if anything, is that now more than ever, America must return to its roots of collaborating with foreign nations. Regardless of which country is more powerful, America’s international involvement has, and will continue to be, a crucial aspect in maintaining global peace. Our foreign policy for the next few decades must emphasize collaboration, both foreign and domestic.

The U.S. must work with itself. Now, America lacks a united front when it comes to foreign policy, which has only come back to hurt us. “Not everything should be the subject for slash-and-burn political warfare,” agreed Mr. Rubin. “Politicians should work behind-the-scenes across the aisle for the good of the United States. It’s crucial to form a consensus on strategy outside the media spotlight… [Additionally,] the Senate should take its oversight role more seriously, as it did in the Carter and Reagan-eras when top leaders worked across the aisle and refused to allow the State Department autonomy to pursue its worst instincts without consequence.”

In this time of change and uncertainty, the U.S. has looked to the past for answers, re-purposing ideas like “America First” and nationalism. This solution has brought nothing but deteriorating international relations and a declining presence on the global stage. If America wants to remain relevant for the coming decades, we must adapt, not only to the idea that we may no longer be the preeminent superpower, but to change internally as well. Only then will our foreign policy succeed in protecting America’s integrity, just as it has for centuries.

“Not everything should be the subject for slash-and-burn political warfare … Politicians should work behind-the-scenes across the aisle for the good of the United States. It’s crucial to form a consensus on strategy outside the media spotlight… [Additionally,] The Senate should take its oversight role more seriously, as it did in the Carter and Reagan-eras when top leaders worked across the aisle and refused to allow the State Department autonomy to pursue its worst instincts without consequence,” said Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at a public policy think tank called the American Enterprise Institute.

Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit

Ukrainian president unleashes on Beijing, saying it’s helping Moscow threaten countries with higher food and fuel prices to convince them not to attend June 15-16 meeting.

POLITICO EU BY ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH, SUZANNE LYNCH AND STUART LAU, JUNE 2, 2024

SINGAPORE — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hit out at China, accusing the country of helping Russia derail a peace summit this month in Switzerland.

"Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit," Zelenskyy said Sunday during a press conference after delivering an address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

In a rare public rebuke of China — after years of careful attempts to court Beijing and peel it away from its "no limits" friendship with Russia — Zelenskyy's frustration appeared to boil over in Singapore. He said Ukraine had evidence that China was assisting Moscow's war efforts, despite the fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping had promised him in a phone call a year ago that Beijing would not get involved.

"We do not expect military support from China. We have never asked them ... But we do not expect China to provide defense support to Russia," Zelenskyy said. "That is what we discussed with the Chinese leader by phone. He promised me China would stand aside, would not support Russia with weapons. Today, there is intelligence that somehow, some way, some things come to Russia’s markets via China … elements of Russia’s weaponry come from China."

Earlier Sunday, China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun insisted that Beijing wasn't fueling Russian President Vladimir Putin's war effort.

China "has not provided weapons to either side, and has strict control over exports of dual-use goods," Dong said during his own speech at the Shangri-La summit. “We stand firmly on the side of peace and dialogue.”

It comes after the second most senior figure in the U.S. State Department, Kurt Campbell, told media outlets including POLITICO last week: "It is fair to say that China's general goal has been not only to support Russia — in our view, to the hilt — but to downplay that publicly and try to maintain normal diplomatic and commercial ties with Europe."

Zelenskyy also accused China of refusing to meet with Ukraine.

“Many times we have wanted to meet Chinese representatives," including Xi, he said. "Unfortunately Ukraine does not have any powerful connections with China because China does not want it.”

He confirmed he had not met with any Chinese officials while in Singapore.

Peace summit call

Earlier, on the Shangri-La main stage, Zelenskyy called on Asia-Pacific countries to show their commitment to peace by attending the June 15-16 summit in Switzerland.

“I urge your leaders to join,” an impassioned Zelenskyy said. “By uniting against one war, we create for the world the real experience of overcoming any war, and of diplomacy that does work."

Zelenskyy said 106 countries had so far confirmed they would send representatives to the Swiss summit, but added that the Kremlin and some of its allies — one of which he later identified as China — have been pressuring others not to attend.

“Russia is trying to disrupt the peace summit,” Zelenskyy said. “What Russia is doing ... it is now traveling around many countries in the world and threatening them with the blockade of agricultural goods, of food products, it is threatening to increase prices for energy, and it is pushing countries around the world so they are not present at the summit.”

He added: “And now there is information that certain states are assisting it."

China has opted not to send a delegation to the Swiss summit, saying it would not attend because Russia wasn't invited. Instead, Beijing has floated the idea of hosting its own peace conference with both Russia and Ukraine to be represented. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated last week that Moscow would be amenable to that idea.

Asked during the press conference Sunday whether Ukraine would attend China's proposed summit, Zelenskyy said it was not Beijing's place to call such a meeting.

"Ukraine is the victim of the war. It is us who have to initiate everything ... Nobody else is fully aware of what Russia has brought with this war to our state," he said. "It is Ukrainians who have died, Russians were raping our women, they have stolen tens of thousands of our children. No one else has the right to dictate how this war should end."

Criss-crossing the world

Earlier, during his public remarks, Zelenskyy said it was important for as many of the world's leaders as possible to travel to Switzerland so that "the global majority" can agree "on the common understandings and steps" to help end the war in Ukraine, now in its third year after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.

"The relevant parties will pass this to Russia, aiming for an outcome similar to the grain initiative," Zelenskyy added, referring to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was brokered by the U.N. and Turkey to allow Ukrainian grain exports to flow.

Zelenskyy, who has been criss-crossing the world in an effort to convince leaders to travel to Switzerland later this month, said he wanted to discuss three topics there: nuclear security, food security and the release of prisoners of war as well as the Ukrainian children who have been abducted by Russia.

Zelenskyy said he was “disappointed some world leaders have not yet confirmed their participation” at the Swiss summit. U.S. President Joe Biden, who is facing an election in November, has not confirmed his attendance, though he will be present at the G7 summit in Italy which takes place just before the Swiss gathering.

Zelenskyy held a series of meetings in Singapore, including with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, members of the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, Timor-Leste’s President José Ramos-Horta and Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto. Zelenskyy said in a statement in the early hours of Sunday that he had invited both Ramos-Horta and Prabowo to Switzerland, with the former accepting the invitation.

“Time is running out, and the children are growing up in their Putin-land, where they are taught to hate their homeland, and are lied to, being told they have no families while their loved ones wait for them at home in Ukraine,” the Ukrainian president said on stage in Singapore, addressing the audience in English.

“I’m here to state that we’ve found a way to restore diplomacy,” said Zelenskyy in his speech. “We can make it real. Not so long ago, it seemed that the world would always be fragmented, but we showed that nations are capable of cooperation.”

Noting that nearly 100 Russian missiles and drones had hit Ukraine overnight, Zelenskyy said: “No country could handle these alone. Everyone in the world who helps us with air defense systems … thank you so much." He name-checked the United States, the Netherlands and Germany.

“Putin believes he is allowed to do anything. By the mid-2010s, Russia brought a war to our lands, a war that Ukraine never, never wanted, did not provoke,” Zelenskyy said.

Sitting in the front row for Zelenskyy's speech were Austin and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, as well as multiple European defense ministers. The Singaporean and Malaysian defense chiefs were on stage as Zelenskyy spoke.

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If you're fortunate enough, life can be delightful; otherwise, it can be an ordeal…

Notes from the editor:

According to Le Monde Diplomatique, this month's edition, the world is challenged on this topic:

…France, averting the risk of total war; war and peace on the Korean peninsula; Gaza, what plan for the ‘day after’? Palestine has a long history with Russia; Guatemala’s temple to neoliberalism; Javier Milei takes his chainsaw to Argentina’s cultural institutions; the Med’s ‘frogs round a pond’; Tunisia aims to supply Europe with solar power; ancient forests resist climate damage; restricting civil liberties in the name of fighting anti-semitism…

Ex-President Donald Trump was found guilty on all 34 felony counts in the hush money trial yesterday, and France, Germany, and the USA have allowed Ukraine to fire missiles into Russian territory.

Recent developments suggest the emergence of a new version of a "Second Yalta Agreement" following China's statement yesterday.. It is important to remember that behind the scenes China plays a very important role in Jalta ONE. Finally, the new battle: The solar breakthrough that could help the U.S. compete with China. Also available in this edition.

”In 2019, around 970 million people globally were affected by a mental disorder. By the way, the article titled "Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times" was published in TIME magazine.

THIS ARTICLE IS AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING EDITIONS.

KARLSTAD, SWEDEN - MAY 26, 2024, BY GERMÁN & CO

“On Friday mornings, illuminated by golden light and surrounded by petals basking in the sun's warmth, a free-spirited and daring “gipsy” danced. Her eyes revealed untold tales as her skirts twirled gracefully, resembling falling leaves whispering secrets from the wind. A sense of loneliness and forgotten dreams was evoked by this poetic scene, resonating through the streams illuminated by sunlight. The laughter resonated like crystal chimes, recounting stories from distant eras of lost love and discovering treasures embraced by unbound sunsets.

Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the happiest lives. It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, awaiting unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence. Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakup of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold. Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection. The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness. Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilly winter breeze.

In this desolate landscape, mental health struggles emerge, casting a long shadow over individuals. Anxiety, a relentless companion, tightens its grip around the heart, planting seeds of doubt that offer a dark temptation to escape from the eternal pain.

This enigmatic blonde, Marilyn Monroe, has captivated the world as one of the most beautiful women in history. However, behind her glamorous facade lies a complex and troubled existence, often categorized as a myth by some. Monroe's genetic inheritance from her mother proved to be a double-edged sword, as it played a significant role in her battle with depression and bipolar disorder. The priest and writer Ernesto Cardenal, who was also a Trappist monk, channeled his platonic love for that stunning blonde – Norma Jeane Mortenson – into the poem, "Pray for Marilyn Monroe." She, indeed she, the solitary, marvelous woman who passionately sang "Happy Birthday to You" to her beloved, President John F. Kennedy. Ernesto delved deep into her mind to write "Pray for Marilyn Monroe," which became a radiograph of the interior of a person tormented by feelings of anguish, who can ultimately no longer bear the suffering.

According to the latest available data, around 970 million people globally were living with a mental disorder in 2019, with conditions such as anxiety and depression being the most common. The World Health Organization (WHO) also highlights that mental health conditions can significantly impact relationships, education, and work and are influenced by various factors, including poverty, violence, and inequality.

It's important to note that mental health conditions are treatable, and many can be managed effectively at a relatively low cost. However, there is still a considerable gap in treatment availability and quality worldwide, and mental health care systems remain under-resourced. Additionally, stigma and discrimination against those with mental health conditions persist, which can hinder people from seeking help. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had a significant impact, causing a rise in the number of people living with anxiety and depressive disorders due to the stress and challenges brought on by the pandemic.

Mental health is a critical aspect of overall well-being, and addressing it requires a comprehensive approach that includes improving data collection, treatment options, and societal attitudes towards mental health.

Indeed, my dear friends, if you're fortunate enough, life can be delightful... Happy Sunday!

You can also read in this post: "Is Milei real, or is he a fictional character? 'It's not easy for someone to defy the norm and be unpredictable in times of predictability.'" published in El País, written by Martín Caparrós, 20 May 2024.

Image: Artwork by Germán & Co

According to Le Monde Diplomatique, this month's edition, the world is challenged on this topic:

…France, averting the risk of total war; war and peace on the Korean peninsula; Gaza, what plan for the ‘day after’? Palestine has a long history with Russia; Guatemala’s temple to neoliberalism; Javier Milei takes his chainsaw to Argentina’s cultural institutions; the Med’s ‘frogs round a pond’; Tunisia aims to supply Europe with solar power; ancient forests resist climate damage; restricting civil liberties in the name of fighting anti-semitism…

Ex-President Donald Trump was found guilty on all 34 felony counts in the hush money trial yesterday, and France, Germany, and the USA have allowed Ukraine to fire missiles into Russian territory.

”In 2019, around 970 million people globally were affected by a mental disorder. By the way, the article titled "Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times" was published in TIME magazine.

This article is available in the following editions.

Karlstad, Sweden - May 26, 2024, by Germán & Co

According to the latest available data, around 970 million people globally were living with a mental disorder in 2019, with conditions such as anxiety and depression being the most common. The World Health Organization (WHO) also highlights that mental health conditions can significantly impact relationships, education, and work and are influenced by various factors, including poverty, violence, and inequality.

Indeed, my dear friends, if you're fortunate enough, life can be delightful... Happy Friday!

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In the United States, renewable energy sources are poised for rapid growth in the field of electricity generation, with states, communities, and organizations pledging to reduce their carbon footprints. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy development business in the US is a testament to our commitment to forging a more sustainable energy landscape. This union not only solidifies our dedication to our clients' goals but also brings a host of benefits. It significantly bolsters our capacity to aid customers in their energy transition by harnessing the expertise and leadership of AES and sPower in the renewable energy sector. We remain resolute in our mission to become a leading platform for renewable energy growth in the US.

The combined entity will manage 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of operating assets, a contracted backlog of 2.6 GW, and a portfolio of 12 GW in development projects. Moving beyond these statistics, we strive to provide value to our customers through the expertise, skills, and dedication of our team of approximately 500 professionals, who are dedicated to solving our clients' most complex energy challenges.

We are actively seeking out and welcoming qualified individuals who possess the necessary skills and who share our vision of transitioning to a 100% carbon-free energy grid. Our commitment to this vision is unwavering, and we are eager to have like-minded individuals join us on this journey.

In our pursuit of cleaner energy, we recognise the myriad approaches customers can employ to achieve 100% renewable energy consumption. Through our partnership with sPower, we are able to offer a wider array of innovative solutions. These solutions, which are powered by cutting-edge technologies, are designed to assist customers in their energy transitions and propel them towards a carbon-neutral future. This commitment to innovation and sustainability sets us apart in the industry and makes us an ideal partner for those who are seeking to have a positive impact on the environment.

Our partnership with Microsoft for a 300 MW solar energy project highlights our commitment to helping clients achieve their sustainability goals. The Pleinmont Solar I and II projects, part of the Spotsylvania Solar Energy Center in Virginia, are expected to generate around 715,000 MWh of solar energy annually, offsetting over 500,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions.

An illustrative example is our partnership with the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC), where AES introduced a groundbreaking solar + storage solution to facilitate solar energy generation beyond daylight hours. This innovative approach gained recognition and established a new standard for providing large-scale renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's goal to be fully powered by renewables by 2045.

We are prepared and eager to assist additional clients, such as Microsoft and KIUC, with eco-friendly and intelligent energy solutions that perfectly align with their business goals and environmental pledges.

"Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering," stated Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Ukraine: what might have been

Le Monede Diplomatique by *Benoît Bréville

Why the silence from French journalists and commentators? They’re normally so fond of secret documents about Russia. They hunt down every hidden plan through which Moscow tries to dissolve the cohesion of democratic societies, every Russian mole lurking in the state apparatus. On 27 April the German conservative daily Die Welt served them on a silver platter a confidential plan from the East: the final version of the peace agreement negotiated by Kyiv and Moscow in the early days of the war – a significant document, which, had it been signed, could have avoided two years of conflict and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The French media have made almost nothing of it (1), perhaps wary of digging into a story in which Western warmongers don’t come up smelling of roses.

In Istanbul on 29 March 2022 Russian and Ukrainian delegations met for the seventh round of negotiations in a month, in an evolving military context in which the Russian aggressor had suffered its first setbacks. When the talks ended, both sides hailed ‘significant’ progress and expressed optimism. Kyiv was open to Ukrainian neutrality, Moscow to a ceasefire. However, the talks broke off, for reasons that remain disputed. The document from Die Welt provided some details.

The official version is that the revelation of the Bucha massacre in early April convinced President Volodymyr Zelensky that he could not keep negotiating with a country that committed genocide. In reality, the exchanges continued via video-link until 15 April, nearly two weeks after the discovery of Bucha. Those two weeks of negotiations transformed the broad outlines established in Istanbul into a detailed, 17-page text. Reading it reveals both sides’ priorities and the compromises they were willing to make to end the fighting.

Rather than territorial conquests, Russia sought security guarantees concerning its borders, stipulating in the very first article the ‘permanent neutrality’ of Ukraine, which would agree to give up all military alliances, prohibit the presence of foreign troops on its soil and reduce its arsenal, while retaining the option of European Union accession. In return, Moscow would commit to withdrawing its troops from areas it had occupied since 24 February, end its attack on Ukraine and agree to the security assistance mechanism requested by Kyiv: in case of aggression against Ukraine, members of the UN Security Council would come to its defence.

Why did the Ukrainians ultimately leave the negotiating table with peace seemingly within reach, even though the talks went on after Bucha? For two years, evidence has pointed to the responsibility of the US and the UK, which, over-confident of Moscow’s defeat, firmly rejected the protection mechanism the negotiators had come up with. ‘When we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv [on 9 April] and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let’s just fight,’ Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Davyd Arakhamiia, said in November (2). A narrative contested by Johnson, but corroborated by a Wall Street Journal investigation (3).

The French media, meanwhile, have studiously ignored it.

*Benoît Bréville serves as the president and editorial director of Le Monde diplomatique, with translations provided by George Miller.

`Brain imaging in bipolar disorder reveals structural and functional changes, affecting areas like the prefrontal cortex and gray matter, and involving key neurotransmitters.`

Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times

Tabitha Stanmore, a specialist in magic, published "Time" on May 24, 2024. She is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Exeter, UK, known for her book "Cunning Folk."

In 1552, the Protestant divine Hugh Latimer preached a sermon in Lincolnshire, England. “When we be in trouble,” he said, “or sickness, or lose any thing, we run hither and thither to wizards or sorcerers, whom we call wise men… seeking aid and comfort at their hands.” Latimer saw this reliance on magic as a problem because it caused supposedly good Christians to turn their backs on God. The preacher had a point: in his day, there was a spell to solve nearly every problem, and a whole army of cunning folk willing to sell said spells to desperate clients. But Latimer was fighting a losing battle.

No matter how many sermons he, and others like him, dedicated to stamping such practices out, magic and mysticism would resurface in times of crisis. While Latimer despaired of Tudor people consulting cunning folk, the men and women themselves were using every method at their disposal to get through the day. One 16th century cunning woman, Joan Tyrry, consulted fairies to diagnose child illnesses. The 15th century vicar-cum-magician William Dardus found stolen goods by summoning spirits. The same year that Latimer complained, a servant named Joan Hall bought a spell to help her procure a “rich marriage.” As time went on, this became more acute in times of widespread danger: when crops failed or war broke out, the impulse to use magic got all the more powerful. As we will see, this is true of the modern day as much as it was the Early Modern era.

This belief in magic and the supernatural didn’t die out as time progressed: In fact, it survives into the present day. There is an old assumption that belief in magic faded away in the Enlightenment, shepherding a new age dominated by rational decision-making and scientific progress. It’s true that times have changed, but perhaps not as much as we might expect. Instead, it seems that when things get tough, we lapse into the same habits as our forebears.

The most striking example from recent times is the COVID-19 pandemic. As the new virus swept the globe, demand for psychics and fortune-tellers roe in tandem with infection rates. From the United States to Thailand, from India to the United Kingdom, people sought answers and comfort from supernatural sources while the world felt like it had turned upside down. The online directory Yelp reported a 74% increase in searches for mediums in 2020. Some psychics even confessed to turning away clients as they were unable to cope with the demand. People generally asked the same questions: about the health of themselves and their loved ones; whether they would survive financially, and when the chaos would end.

The same questions are asked in all times of stress, both personal and national. Google Trends shows searches for psychics peaked in the final weeks before the 2016 Brexit vote, and around key dates during the country’s exit from the European Union (there’s also a small but significant bump in searchers googling ‘money spell’). Mediums also saw an upsurge in business during the financial crash of 2008 (IBISWorld declared fortune-telling one of the few “recession proof” industries); and spiritualism and seances famously gained popularity during the First and Second World Wars. In my period of interest, there was a boom in astrology in 1640s England, when Britain was in the throes of civil war. Much like in modern spates of social upheaval, astrologers like the Londoner William Lillie were consulted about who might flounder and who survive, and when and how the trauma would end.

At first glance, turning to a medium can look like an act of surrender: of accepting that we are not the masters of our fates. But that is rarely the case. Rather, magic becomes one tool in our arsenal for coping. Knowing the future is one aspect of this; another is casting spells to bring about a desired outcome. We saw this happen in modern times with the “Witches against Trump” movement (and the prayer circles organised to counter the witches’ spells). What’s fascinating, though, is that those taking part in such rituals didn’t just rely on supernatural skills: they wove them into a wider blanket of action that encompassed things like campaigning and voting. This is an often overlooked aspect of magic—it’s not the same as mere wishful thinking. It is an active effort to take control of the situation, and as such most magical practitioners will use the supernatural alongside other methods to make their lives better. This is true of the past as well—Tyrry, the fairy healer, administered well-chosen herbs to her patients alongside her incantations; Dardus used his position as a priest to investigate his parishioners. Ultimately, magic has always been one tool among many in people’s arsenals to make life bearable.

Of course, there is a darker side to magic in times of crisis. Difficult situations can bring out the best and worst in people, especially when fear sets in. Soldiers bought protective amulets during the English Civil War, but they also accused neighbours of malevolent witchcraft. The stress caused by the social divisions and trauma of the war led to the single biggest witch hunt in English history, with three hundred accused and over 100 executed. On this side of the Atlantic, the Salem Witch Trials saw over 200 people accused and at least 20 deaths. People’s fears during the COVID-19 pandemic also led to terrible acts: the United Nations reported an increase in ritualised murder as some people’s body parts were harvested for magical cures.

It's easy to think that we’re different to our ancestors. But when things go wrong, for good or ill, we still make room for magic in our lives. It’s one of several strategies people use to survive, and it is, in itself, not a bad thing. In fact, our reliance on magical thinking is something fundamentally human that deserves to be recognised. We are creatures who need hope and a feeling of control. Perhaps magic is just a mental and spiritual crutch—but it’s a surprisingly powerful and constant one.

Is Milei real, or is he a fictional character?

"It's not easy for someone to defy the norm and be unpredictable in times of predictability."

El País, Martín Caparrós, 20 May 2024

…”Spain is perhaps living in one of the most complex post-Franco periods in its history. Aside from a bark queen who has taken half the world to the river (according to her own lover, Don Jaime del Burgo), there is also a king who is called "calzonudo" because of all the horns that have been put on him.[WE1] The president of a government has dared to sign unimaginable pacts to remain in power, even an amnesty law that pardons all acts of terrorism committed on the peninsula. And as if these were not enough, his wife is accused of influence peddling. In addition, Spanish society has been shaken by a confessed murder (with dismemberment) committed by a Spanish citizen in the exotic country of Thailand. And to top it all off, the psychedelic president of Argentina, Javier Milei, arrives. Milei has set the country on fire even more on his recent visit, with insults to the president of the government and his wife.

Today, in Spain, no one is talking about Vox and its 15,000 comparsas in the bullring. Everyone is talking about the foolishness of an unbridled man who doesn't know how to shut his mouth when he has to.

Milei works at surprising, astonishing, and plunging us into perplexity. We often don't know what to think in front of him. Doubt advances, cruel and mocking.

Indeed, in these times of predictability, it's no small feat for someone to defy the norm and be unpredictable. Yet as the saying goes, the worst accidents are often the most unexpected. But beyond this, the debate that rages on is simple: Does he act on his own volition, or do circumstances drive him? Is it his choice, or is it fate?

We are talking about his violence, rudeness, and insistence on insulting anyone who does not pay him homage. He has done so with politicians and journalists, of course, but also with friends or former friends, economists of his ilk, the millionaires of Davos, the Pope, several heads of state – he called Colombia's Petro "a terrorist murderer"; Brazil's Lula, "communist and corrupt"; Mexico's López, "an ignoramus" – and so on.

Some argue that his aggressive demeanour is a calculated strategy. On one hand, it sets him apart from other politicians, whom he refers to as "the caste", and aligns him with the deep-seated anger of millions of Argentines after years of disappointment. They say the strategy makes him a "terrorist" to his critics and a "hero" to his supporters.

On the other hand, so much mephitic noise distracts his compatriots and the rest of the world from the disastrous situation in which Argentina remains under his mandate: a recession of 30% or 40%, tens of thousands of layoffs, increasing hunger and misery, an unhinged administration, and an inflation of 8% a month, which he celebrates as low. That the world talks about him for his outbursts – and that some even celebrate it – is his best trick so we don't see what he does when he is silent. It would be a way of exercising political power based on the distraction provided by verbal violence, the disdain for those who are different, and the call for their ultimacy: something that is becoming increasingly common because it pays dividends because more voters and people are willing to follow those outbursts.

I wish it were so. If only he were a phoney who deceives and manipulates us with his outbursts. The other option is more worrying: Mr Milei cannot act otherwise. As his stories of childhood and youth suggested and as his tales of dead dogs talking to God and promising him the presidency confirmed, this is his nature: a confused, angry man incapable of complying with specific basic rules of coexistence that any being should respect. In short, he is a man who talks to himself and who does not manage to go from television buffoon to president because his personality was perfect for the former and unsustainable for the latter.

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`A power connection is seen on a solar panel situated inside the Qcells plant located in Dalton, Georgia. This photograph, captured by MIKE STEWART for the ASSOCIATED PRESS, showcases the innovative energy infrastructure in place at the facility.`

The Solar Breakthrough That Could Help the U.S. Competing With China

Biggest investor in U.S. solar manufacturing will use new technology to cut costs

WSJ By Amrith Ramkumar, May 30, 2024

The biggest investor in U.S. solar manufacturing is embracing a new technology that reduces the cost of producing the panels, potentially bolstering efforts to build a supply chain outside of China for an industry crucial to the energy transition.

The new technology comes from an Israeli startup that promises to simplify one of the most cumbersome steps in solar manufacturing and cut costs by reducing the amount of silver needed to capture sunlight on the panels.

The startup, called Lumet, is the brainchild of Benny Landa, who founded the company that developed the first digital printing press. That company was sold to HP for $830 million in the early 2000s. Lumet is working with Bank of America to raise hundreds of millions of dollars in the coming months, Landa said.

South Korea’s Hanwha Group says it will be the first company to use Lumet’s technology. Hanwha’s Qcells unit, one of the biggest solar-panel makers outside China, is building a multibillion-dollar solar supply chain in Georgia. The company expects the financial savings and performance gains to help it compete with low-cost products from the world’s biggest producer.

A power connection on a solar panel inside the Qcells plant in Dalton, Ga. PHOTO: MIKE STEWART/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Qcells is expected to be one of the biggest potential beneficiaries from incentives in the 2022 U.S. climate law and a recently announced tariff increase on Chinese solar cells. The company said recently it is closing its only factory in China.

Chinese solar panels can be half the price of panels made elsewhere, industry analysts say, putting pressure on companies to cut costs. “We know we can’t depend on trade barriers or subsidies to make us competitive,” Danielle Merfeld, global chief technology officer at Qcells, said in an interview. “We have to keep innovating.”

Plummeting costs have made solar power one of the cheapest and fastest-growing sources of energy globally. Further advances can reduce the need for fossil fuels to meet rising demand for electricity and help limit climate change.

Solar panels account for a small portion of overall project costs, but bigger contributors like labor, permitting and financing expenses are less flexible.

The main building blocks in solar panels are polysilicon wafers, which are treated with chemicals and silver to produce solar cells that can collect energy from the sun. Those cells are connected to get finished modules.

The step that uses silver and is being overhauled by Lumet is called metallization. It is one of the most expensive parts of cell assembly. The process uses screen printing techniques that rely on squeegeeing a silver paste through a mesh screen in a process similar to stenciling, then drying it out. The silver is coated on the cell in ultrathin shapes, known as fingers, for capturing sunlight.

Making the fingers as thin and efficient as possible has been critical to reducing solar costs because silver is expensive. Prices for the precious metal have recently risen to their highest level in more than a decade—above $32 a troy ounce—buoyed in part by strong solar demand.

Current printing techniques have reached their limit, Lumet says. The company coats the surface of plastic films with silver paste in precise patterns. That film then gets pressed onto preheated solar cells. The elevated temperatures make the pattern stick on the cell, so the film can then be peeled off.

The process can produce thinner silver fingers that use less metal and are specially placed to increase the amount of light captured by each solar cell, Lumet says. Eliminating bulky screen printing and drying equipment and automating the process in a single machine generates cost savings and performance gains on each cell, it claims.

The company is talking to other potential customers and plans to establish factories in the U.S. and China to begin production next year, Landa said.

Qcells has been testing Lumet’s process for nine months and talking to the company for two years. Qcells declined to provide specifics on when it would deploy the technology at specific factories and the overall cost reductions it is targeting.

Its $2.5 billion Georgia supply-chain effort is on track to be completed by the end of the year and will supply big customers including Microsoft. Expanded module assembly is up and running, with ingot and wafer production expected to start by September and cell production to follow by December, Merfeld said.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 5/9/24 Germán & Co 5/9/24

Emerging technologies, like large-scale battery storage, could be shining a brighter light of hope in our turbulent and shadowed world…

Notes from the editor:

Reflecting on the words of Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES Corporation: "The future is bright for energy storage. If you want more renewables on the grid, you need more batteries. It's not going to work otherwise," as reported by the NYT on May 7th, 2024, it is clear that giant batteries are essential.revolutionizing the way electricity is utilized in the United States. They are enabling the use of solar power during nighttime in California and assisting in stabilizing power grids in various states. The technology is rapidly expanding, with California leading the way in solar energy consumption. The state faces a challenge of solar power abundance during the day but scarcity in the evening when electricity demand peaks. To address this issue, power companies traditionally resort to burning more fossil fuels like natural gas. However, the installation of giant batteries in California since 2020 has been significant, second only to China. These batteries can store excess solar energy during the day for later use in the evening, reducing the reliance on fossil fuels. The batteries have played a crucial role in California's electric grid, with examples of supplying a substantial portion of electricity during peak hours. This trend is not limited to California, as power companies across the country are increasingly adopting large batteries to mitigate the intermittency of renewable energy sources like wind and solar. The growth of battery storage capacity on national grids has been remarkable in recent years, with expectations of further doubling this year, particularly in states like Texas, California, and Arizona. The majority of grid batteries utilize lithium-ion technology, which has become more cost-effective due to advancements in the electric vehicle industry and federal subsidies. As battery usage expands, power companies are exploring innovative applications such as managing fluctuations in electricity generation, reducing transmission line congestion, and enhancing grid resilience during extreme weather events. In California, policymakers aim to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045, with grid batteries playing a crucial role in reducing reliance on natural gas. The future of energy storage looks promising, with batteries being essential for integrating more renewable energy sources into the grid effectively.

Image: Artwork by Germán & Co

“Today, the New York Times published an article titled "Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Electricity User." These batteries deliver solar power after dark in California and help stabilize grids in other states. The technology is expanding rapidly…

This article is available in these editions.

All rights of the artwork are held by Germán & Co.

By Germán & Co.

Karlstad, Sweden, May 9, 2024

When, in 1800, Alessandro Volta invented the electric battery, thus marking a crucial turning point in the world of electricity. This invention revolutionized how people used electricity and paved the way for developing large-scale batteries. The electric battery proved to be a game-changer in the world of technology and has transformed our lives. Thanks to this invention, we can now quickly and efficiently power our homes, vehicles, and smartphones. Is almost sure that Volta never could imagines this uncreible develop. Grazie mille Alessandro…

The advent of giant batteries, particularly those used in electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage, is a game-changer for the electric sector. The demand for batteries in EVs is skyrocketing, with the demand for automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries expected to increase by approximately 65% to 550 GWh in 2022.

The increasing demand for batteries is leading to a greater need for critical materials, with lithium, cobalt, and nickel playing essential roles in these batteries. The rise of batteries will result in the rapid phase-out of half of the world's demand for fossil fuels and will be instrumental in reducing emissions from transportation and power generation.

Additionally, declining battery costs are swiftly enhancing the competitiveness of electric vehicles and storage applications within the power sector. Battery storage is vital to the electricity grid for various reasons: batteries are crucial for stability and reliability, serving as the backbone of power backup systems and contributing to grid stability. They have the capacity to store energy and act as a rapid-response load, aiding in the equilibrium of power supply and demand. They can also provide backup power to households, businesses, and distribution grids during outages or to support electric reliability.

Undoubtedly, versatile batteries can be adjusted in both location and scale. This flexibility enables their deployment in areas of greatest need, and their capacity can be scaled up or down to meet the grid's requirements. Equally important is the support for renewable energy; storage plays a critical role in managing the variability of wind and solar resources, allowing them to serve as reliable baseload generation. That said, it could also help to postpone investments in new transmission and distribution lines. And finally, this may signify the end for this amazing and astonishingly powerful technology.

“The future is bright for energy storage,” said Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES Corporation, one of the world’s largest power companies. “If you want more renewables on the grid, you need more batteries. It’s not going to work otherwise.”
The information is from The New York Times on May 7th, 2024.

In this regard, Fluence Energy, a joint venture between Siemens and AES Corporation, is making a significant impact on the electric industry within this sector. The company has achieved milestones by deploying and contracting over 20 GWh of storage systems globally, setting a new standard in battery-based energy storage installations and expansion. Indeed, Fluence Energy is recognized as a leader in this field. Moreover, the company supports renewable energy by providing storage products, services, and optimization software that aid in the transition from traditional power sources to renewable alternatives on a global scale. Furthermore, Fluence Energy has collaborated with clients to implement some of the most extensive and intricate energy storage systems worldwide. For example, they were chosen by AGL Energy Limited to supply a 500 MW/1,000 MWh energy storage system for the Liddell Battery Project in New South Wales. The company is also known for its innovative approach to pioneering new energy storage applications that influence power network operations and address the challenges of transitioning to sustainable energy sources.

Fluence Energy's contributions are undoubtedly pivotal in the electric industry as they provide scalable energy storage solutions, support the transition to renewable energy sources, and drive innovation in power network operations. This transformation leads to more efficient and environmentally friendly energy consumption for consumers. The rise of the electric vehicle (EV) market, propelled by advancements in battery technology, offers consumers more sustainable transportation choices. The company is projected to increase its energy storage capacity by over 14 GW by 2030.

In conclusion, consumers can certainly store renewable energy using home battery systems, such as those powered by solar or wind, within the power sector. This reduces dependence on the grid and enables the use of clean energy even during times when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow.

Finally, Alessandro Volta's creation of the electric battery to the ongoing advancements in large-scale energy storage, we are witnessing a significant and influential transformation in the electrical sector. This evolution is revolutionizing how energy is produced and storage, fundamentally changing the nature of consumer interaction in the electricity market. Undoubtedly, these developments are remarkable.. Ancora una volta Alessandro, grazie mille...

`“To the Jewish community, I want you to know: I see your fear, your hurt, your pain,” President Joe Biden said. (NYT)`

Notes from the editors:

"On the day Hamas sowed the seeds of discord in a selfish and wretched manner, with unyielding persistence…"

Initially, the blog steered clear of this subject due to its significant emotional impact and the potential to elicit irrational reactions. Nevertheless, on January 28, a thorough examination of the matter was released, titled: "The Intention to Trigger a Worldwide Conflict Should Be Readily Apparent..." Ultimately, after considering the historical context, we can distill the crux of the matter to a single idea: "The profound impact of surprise attacks throughout history includes the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey; Hamas comprehended the widespread and lasting repercussions of the attack, which negatively affected individuals residing in the West Bank and Gaza. Furthermore, Hamas' actions had no impact except for galvanizing ultra-fundamentalist Arab groups to launch a united campaign against Israel. This was the sole reason behind the appalling assault on civilians on October 7, which has led to further dire consequences for the Palestinian population. However, history did not conclude here.

The ultra-extremist Arab group was clandestinely planning to instigate an unprecedented regional or global conflict, capitalizing on the ultra-conservative Israeli government's internal power struggles. Such surprise attacks have long been recognized as a military strategy that can create disorder, devastation, and success throughout history. These unexpected assaults can prompt opponents to quickly review and revise their strategies, resulting in swift and resounding successes for the attackers and shaping the future course of the conflict.

Considering this historical perspective, we must acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding its applicability in the current situation. While some argue that principles from past conflicts may not directly align with our evolving geopolitical landscape, it is undeniable that the enduring significance of surprise and strategic maneuvering persists. Just as ancient commanders relied on catching their opponents off guard, we are similarly compelled, in our competitive environment, to innovate and devise novel approaches to outmaneuver our adversaries.

Some examples highlight the profound impact of surprise attacks throughout history. For example, the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey vividly demonstrates the significance of strategic deception in penetrating Troy's defenses. Similarly, the stunning victory achieved by Hannibal, leader of Carthage, over a more formidable Roman army in the Battle of Cannae in 206 BC shocked the ancient world and underscored the potency of surprise tactics. Moving forward in history, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 marked a pivotal turning point in World War II, showcasing the capacity of surprise assaults to reshape the course of conflict.

Post-World War II, surprise attacks continued to shape global events, with China's unexpected involvement in the Korean War of 1950 catching United Nations forces off guard and prompting a reorganization of the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, Israel's utilization of surprise tactics during the Six-Day War of 1967 and the October War of 1973 underscored the enduring impact of strategic cunning in the face of threats from neighboring countries.

The tragic assault on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic are stark reminders of the far-reaching consequences of unforeseen events, prompting societal shifts and unveiling deep-seated inequalities across the globe.

The ongoing drama instigated by Hamas was addressed yesterday by President Joseph Biden, who delivered a comprehensive statement outlining the steps being taken to de-escalate the situation, not only the domestic turbulence provoked by protests in favor of Palestinians in the university cluster but also to work towards lasting peace in the region. Standing before six candles symbolizing the six million Jews who perished in the Holocaust, he issued a powerful condemnation of antisemitism. His remarks were delivered seven months to the day after the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7. Approximately 1,200 individuals were killed at the border between Israel and Gaza, and over 200 were taken hostage, marking the most lethal day for the Jewish community since the Holocaust.

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"Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering," stated Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity

They’re delivering solar power after dark in California and helping to stabilize grids in other states. And the technology is expanding rapidly.

The New York Times article by Brad Plumer and Nadja Popovich, dated May 7, 2024.

California draws more electricity from the sun than any other state. It also has a timing problem: Solar power is plentiful during the day but disappears by evening, just as people get home from work and electricity demand spikes. To fill the gap, power companies typically burn more fossil fuels like natural gas.

That’s now changing. Since 2020, California has installed more giant batteries than anywhere in the world apart from China. They can soak up excess solar power during the day and store it for use when it gets dark.

Those batteries play a pivotal role in California’s electric grid, partially replacing fossil fuels in the evening. Between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. on April 30, for example, batteries supplied more than one-fifth of California’s electricity and, for a few minutes, pumped out 7,046 megawatts of electricity, akin to the output from seven large nuclear reactors.

Across the country, power companies are increasingly using giant batteries the size of shipping containers to address renewable energy’s biggest weakness: the fact that the wind and sun aren’t always available.

“What’s happening in California is a glimpse of what could happen to other grids in the future,” said Helen Kou, head of U.S. power analysis at BloombergNEF, a research firm. “Batteries are quickly moving from these niche applications to shifting large amounts of renewable energy toward peak demand periods.”

Over the past three years, battery storage capacity on the nation’s grids has grown tenfold, to 16,000 megawatts. This year, it is expected to nearly double again, with the biggest growth in Texas, California and Arizona.

Most grid batteries use lithium-ion technology, similar to batteries in smartphones or electric cars. As the electric vehicle industry has expanded over the past decade, battery costs have fallen by 80 percent, making them competitive for large-scale power storage. Federal subsidies have also spurred growth.

As batteries have proliferated, power companies are using them in novel ways, such as handling big swings in electricity generation from solar and wind farms, reducing congestion on transmission lines and helping to prevent blackouts during scorching heat waves.

In California, which has set ambitious goals for fighting climate change, policymakers hope grid batteries can help the state get 100 percent of its electricity from carbon-free sources by 2045. While the state remains heavily dependent on natural gas, a significant contributor to global warming, batteries are starting to eat into the market for fossil fuels. State regulators plan to nearly triple battery capacity by 2035.

“The future is bright for energy storage,” said Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES Corporation, one of the world’s largest power companies. “If you want more renewables on the grid, you need more batteries. It’s not going to work otherwise.”

When power companies first began connecting batteries to the grid in the 2010s, they mainly used them to smooth out small disruptions in the flow of electricity, say, if a power plant unexpectedly tripped offline. Many battery operators still earn most of their revenue by providing these “ancillary services.”

But power companies also use batteries to engage in a type of trading: charging up when electricity is plentiful and cheap and then selling power to the grid when electricity supplies are tighter and more expensive.

In California power prices often crash around midday, when the state produces more solar power than it needs, especially in the spring when air-conditioning use is low. Prices then soar in the evening when solar disappears and grid operators have to increase output from gas plants or hydroelectric dams to compensate.

California now has 10,000 megawatts of battery power capacity on the grid, enough to power 10 million homes for a few hours. Those batteries are “able to very effectively manage that evening ramp where solar is going down and customer demand is increasing,” said John Phipps, executive director of grid operations for the California Independent System Operator, which oversees the state’s grid.

Batteries can also help California’s grid handle stresses from heat waves and wildfires, Mr. Phipps said. “It made some differences last summer,” he said. “We were able to meet high load days and wildfire days when we might lose some power lines.”

In Texas, batteries are still largely used to provide ancillary services, stabilizing the grid against unexpected disruptions. Texas is also more reliant than California on wind energy, which fluctuates in less predictable patterns.

But Texas is quickly catching up to California in solar power, and batteries increasingly help with evening peaks. On April 28, the sun was setting just as wind power was unexpectedly low and many coal and gas plants were offline for repairs. Batteries jumped in, supplying 4 percent of Texas’ electricity at one point, enough to power a million homes. Last summer, batteries helped avert evening blackouts by providing additional power during record heat.

The two states built their battery fleets in distinct ways. In California, regulatory mandates were a key impetus: In 2019, officials worried that too many older gas plants were closing, risking blackouts, and ordered utilities to quickly install thousands of megawatts of storage.

In Texas, market forces dominate. The state’s deregulated electricity system allows prices to fluctuate sharply, rising as high as $5,000 per megawatt-hour during acute shortages. That makes it lucrative for battery developers to take advantage of spikes, such as in locations where power lines periodically get clogged.

“Anywhere we think the market is going to get tight, you can put batteries in and even things out,” said Stephanie Smith, chief operating officer of Eolian, a battery developer. “Then, we’re making bets all day about when to charge and discharge.”

One battery, for instance, sits near Fort Worth, absorbing excess wind power from West Texas during the nighttime, when no one needs it, and feeding it into the grid when demand surges.

Other states are following. In Arizona and Georgia, utilities plan to install thousands of megawatts of battery capacity to help manage rising demand from data centers and factories. It helps that batteries can be deployed quickly, said Aaron Mitchell, vice president of planning and pricing at Georgia Power.

The industry still faces obstacles, however. Lithium-ion batteries are flammable, and while operators have taken steps to reduce fire risk, some communities oppose projects in their backyards. Most batteries still come from China, making them vulnerable to trade disputes. In Texas, a state fund to subsidize gas plants could undercut the battery boom. In other states, complex regulations sometimes prevent utilities from adding energy storage.

“Because these storage resources are so new, the rules are still catching up,” said Natalie McIntire, who works on grid issues for the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.

Can Grid Batteries Help Fight Climate Change?

Grid batteries could be a useful tool to slash planet-warming emissions, experts say, though they still need further advances in terms of costs, technologies and how they are used.

In Texas, many batteries today are actually increasing carbon-dioxide emissions, according to one analysis. That’s because operators focus on maximizing revenue and sometimes charge with coal or gas power.

“These batteries have an immense capability to abate carbon, but they need the right incentives to do so,” said Emma Konet, co-founder of Tierra Climate, a startup working to help batteries earn money for reducing emissions.

In California, by contrast, batteries appear to be cutting emissions from fossil fuels. The state’s gas use in April fell to a seven-year low. “We have reached the conclusion that batteries are displacing natural gas when solar generation is ramping up and down each day,” said Max Kanter, chief executive of Grid Status, an electricity data tracking firm.

Yet California still gets roughly 40 percent of its electricity from natural gas, and it could be difficult for current battery technology to replace all of that. One analysis from BloombergNEF found that solar and batteries can be a cost-effective alternative to smaller gas “peaker” plants that only switch on when demand spikes. But batteries remain too costly to replace many of the larger gas-burning plants that provide steadier power day and night.

“You don’t want to necessarily build a system where you’ve got batteries to suck up every last megawatt-hour, because that’s a pretty expensive system,” said Meredith Fowlie, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

Today’s lithium-ion batteries typically only deliver power for two to four hours before needing to recharge. If costs keep falling, battery companies might be able to extend that to eight or ten hours (it’s a matter of adding more battery packs) but it may not be economical to go far beyond that, said Nate Blair, an energy storage expert at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

That means additional long-duration storage technologies could be needed. If California wants to rely largely on renewable energy, it will have to handle weeklong periods where there’s no wind and little sun. Another challenge: There’s far more solar power available in summer than in winter, and no battery today can store electricity for months to manage those seasonal disparities.

Some companies are exploring solutions. In Sacramento, a start-up called ESS is building “flow” batteries that store energy in liquid electrolytes and can last 12 hours or longer. Another start-up, Form Energy, is building a 100-hour iron-air battery. These ideas will have to compete against alternatives like nuclear power, advanced geothermal or even using green hydrogen to store electricity.

California’s regulators say they may need five times as much storage capacity by midcentury, even if it’s unclear which technologies will prevail.

“We’re just at the beginning of this,” said Mr. Phipps of the California Independent System Operator.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

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Iran's Conflict with Israel…A Dangerous Spiral of Violence in the Middle East

Wishing everyone the very best, and most importantly, abundant health as this Sabbath comes to a close.

It's becoming evident that European leaders are actively working on strategies to address the gas supply challenges plaguing the continent. Why? The transition to a new renewable energy source has caused bureaucratic challenges, including extended permit procedures, technical issues with the grid, and opposition from the environmental movement. Believe it or not, The Sámi in Swedish Lapland have protested against the construction of wind farms, arguing that the noise from the generators' blades has a psychological impact on the reindeer population in that serene and picturesque region.

The concept of the "unforeseeable consequences of fundamental political issues" is frequently overlooked, as evidenced by the detonation of the Nord Stream pipeline in the North Sea. Despite Washington's advice against detonating this strategic facility, the decision was not overturned. The explosion on 22 September 2022, occurred in a matter of seconds, causing an estimated 7.5 billion euros in damage and, worse, cutting off the only gas supply to the continent. This major geopolitical incident is distinct from the recent bombing at the Iranian embassy in Damascus by Israeli forces.

Washington's counsel to avoid detonating this strategic energy facility was disregarded. In the blink of an eye, an explosion occurred, resulting in an estimated 7.5 billion euros in damage and, more significantly, the cessation of the continent's sole gas supply. It is possible to posit that the pipe was devoid of gas due to the Kremlin's supply restriction. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the world and life are not static entities. Change is an ever-present aspect of our existence that we must embrace and adapt to. However, it is difficult to envision President Vladimir Putin remaining indefinitely in the expansive realm of Eurasia. The most recent bellicose geopolitical event, which was arguably both reckless and mean, involved the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, causing widespread concern and condemnation from the international community. It comes as no surprise that Washington was not informed about this particular incident, as doing so could have potentially hindered the operation's progress.

Finally, the primary concern is not solely the "Talion" law, which stands between opposing forces, but rather Putin's mindset. Mr. Henry Kissinger articulated this perspective during a profound interview with Portofalio magazine, conducted at the renowned French restaurant Jubilee in downtown Manhattan, New York, on July 27, 2018. Kissinger observed that although Putin does not mirror historical figures such as Hitler, he does exhibit traits akin to characters from Dostoevsky's esteemed novels. This insight highlights the extensive impact of Putin's choices, resulting in what Kissinger describes as "imperial contamination." The effects of this are evident in current disputes like the one between Venezuela and Guyana, which exemplify the enduring human inclination to place power above everything in the quest for dominance.

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The danger of all-out war in the Middle East is greater than ever. How did Israel and Iran get into this mess? And can they still find a way out? (Der Spiegel-Today)

A Planetary Crisis Awaits the Next President

New York Times article by Stephen Markley, Today.

“I fully admit, Mr. Biden was not my first, nor even my seventh, choice in the 2020 Democratic primary. Yet when it came to the immense challenge of confronting this crisis, I am forever grateful that he proved me wrong, delivering a game-changing victory with the narrowest of congressional margins. Even as much of the rest of Mr. Biden’s ambitious policy agenda got hacked away in Congress, one thing remained: re-industrialization through clean energy investment.
This led to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate legislation the country has ever seen and a more important achievement than the Paris climate accord. In just two years, that bill has galvanized clean energy investment in the United States and set a pace for the rest of the world to compete in the growing clean energy economy. These investments are expected to create more than nine million jobs over the next decade. That growth in clean energy is not only breaking records by the year but also by the quarter, with the end of 2023 seeing a 40 percent increase in investments in clean energy and transportation over the last quarter of 2022….

Read the full articles in this edition.

“The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Unveiled… "Th3 Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning: 'The Unpredictable Consequences of Fundamental Political Matters'"

In the realm of politics, there exist certain matters so sensitive, so inherently fragile, that their mere existence can send shockwaves through the social and political fabric of a nation. These issues, oftentimes underpinned by deep-rooted historical, cultural, or ideological tensions, have the potential to disrupt the delicate balance that holds societies together.

https://energycentral.com/c/og/exclusive-%E2%80%9C-dark-day-europes-energy-crisis-unveiled%E2%80%A6

Wishing you all the very best, and above all, abundant health at the end of this Sabbath.

`AES Dominicana has significantly enhanced the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system through the utilization of diverse fuels and renewable energy sources.`

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`Iranian drones have been utilized by Russia to target Ukraine. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.`

The danger of all-out war in the Middle East is greater than ever. How did Israel and Iran get into this mess? And can they still find a way out?

"Der Spiegel," authored by Susanne Koelbl, Christoph Reuter, Thore Schröder, and Bernhard Zand, dated April 19, 2024.

The uranium enrichment plant in Natanz is located halfway between the cities of Isfahan and Kashan. The only things visible from the highway are warehouses and workshops. Most of the plant is buried in tunnels, well over 60 meters below the surface – difficult to destroy even with the most powerful American bunker-busting bombs, it is said.

It is almost impossible to see what is happening underground here from the outside. What is known is that this is the site where Iran is further developing its nuclear program, which the international community had hoped to end using diplomatic means – and which Israel and many of Iran's Arab neighbors feel threatened by.

This is truer than ever following Iran's attack on Israel in the night of April 14, when the regime in Tehran launched a salvo of more than 300 drones, rockets and ballistic missiles in the country's direction.

Outside of Israeli security circles, no one knows exactly what possible targets in Iran the military planners are currently discussing in the event that war with Iran does indeed break out one day. But it is likely that, in addition to military bases, airports and oil facilities, the locations of the nuclear program will also be considered.

Around 170 kilometers north of Natanz, between Tehran and Qom, the city that is the world's largest center of Shiite scholarship, is the Fordo nuclear facility, also hidden underground. Some 150 kilometers further to the west, near the industrial city of Arak, there is another nuclear facility with a research reactor and a heavy water reactor.

An Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program is the maximum variant of retaliation that is currently conceivable. It would be a bold move, feasible, if at all, only with the help of the United Sates – and with incalculable consequences for the rest of the world.

The danger of a major war in the Middle East is currently greater than ever. The risk remains just as high now that Israel apparently responded with a limited strike early on Friday morning.

It still isn't entirely clear what happened. According to Iranian reports, there were several explosions near the city of Isfahan in central Iran. Reports from the U.S. media, which cite unnamed Israeli and Iranian sources, indicated that it could have been an attack involving drones, possibly near an air force base. Iran initially played the incident down. It also remained unclear whether Israel would follow up with further strikes – or whether Iran would react once again.

The New York Times reported that four options had been discussed in Israel in the preceding days: a strike against an Iranian facility outside Iran, such as a Revolutionary Guard base in Syria; an attack on a "symbolic target" inside Iran; a cyberattack on the country's infrastructure – and an intensification of acts of sabotage or targeted killings inside Iran, of the type Israel's foreign intelligence service has allegedly been carrying out for years.

Reports coming out of Isfahan point to the second option. And it does seem fitting given that in military retaliation operations, states are usually keen to "thematically link" the counterstrike, as Fabian Hinz of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) puts it. To strike a specific unit or base that they believe to be responsible for the original attack, for example. That concept is at least one common denominator shared by countries as different and hostile as Israel and Iran.

Ever since the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7 and the war in Gaza, there has been an increased possibility of a broader war pitting Israel, the U.S. and their allies against Iran and its proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. But despite the fact that Iran has co-financed the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, or that Israel is involved in battles with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah or that Houthi militias allied with Iran are launching drones from Yemen towards Israel, a larger conflagration has yet to be sparked.

It would be a war that could set the entire region between the Levant and the Hindukush on fire. "A war with Iran could destroy emirates such as Abu Dhabi or Dubai within 24 hours," the American Iran expert Vali Nasr said in an interview with DER SPIEGEL. Such a war could jeopardize global oil supplies, disrupt international trade and strengthen Russia and China.

It is a war that few people want. But wars don't always arise because someone decides to start them, sometimes they are the result of events that develop a momentum that no one can escape. Sometimes it is overreactions or miscalculations that set off a spiral of escalation.

What is the history of the current crisis?

On the night of April 14, an event occurred that had the potential to start a major war: It was Iran's first direct military attack on Israel. Iran's regime launched a massive airstrike with more than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. The Shahed drones flew west for hours. It didn't take long to detect them, but it was nonetheless an attempt to demonstrate military power.

None of the drones and very few missiles reached their targets. Most had been shot down by Israel, the U.S. or their allies before they reached Israeli airspace, even by neighboring Arab country Jordan. Israel's missile defense took care of most of the rest. Considering the scale of the attack, the civilian and military damage was minor. The only victim known by name: a seven-year-old Bedouin girl in the Negev desert who was injured.

The geopolitical consequences, however, are enormous. For the first time in the decades-long shadow war between the two hostile countries, both have now attacked the other from their own territory. The former Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Ahmad Dastmalchian spoke of a "paradigm shift" in Iran's "defense policy." "Now, at the latest, Iran has passed the point of no return," said Michael Roth, the chair of the Foreign Policy Committee in the Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament.

But the Iranian attack wasn't the first cross-border assault in this conflict. An Iranian consulate and residence building in Syria's capital city Damascus was destroyed in an April 1 airstrike, presumably by Israel. Sixteen people, including Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and other high-ranking officers and civilians were killed. Attacks on diplomatic missions are considered to be taboo by the international community, but for Iran, it was a public humiliation. As usual, Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack, but also made no effort to deny it.

That's how the logic of strike and counterstrike began. After Iran's attack last weekend, Israeli Army Spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Tuesday: "We cannot stand still from this kind of aggression." Iran will not "get off scot-free."

In the event the Israelis struck, the regime in Iran said it would strike back. And that this retaliation would be "much more serious" than the attack on April 13, an adviser to Iranian President Ebrahim Rasi said. If Israel "makes another mistake," said Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, the country "will not have 12 days, a day or hours. The next strike will take place within seconds and has already been approved."

And even if the Israeli reaction now appears to have been rather mild and Iran has so far shown no signs of a renewed counter-reaction: The conflict between Israel and Iran is now being played out openly. The shadow war is no longer in the shadows. And the danger remains great that the conflict will escalate further – if not now, then in the coming weeks, months or years.

Israel's path to this escalation is closely linked to one name: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rise of the political right.

But how did Iran, the major Shiite power in the Middle East, become Israel's archenemy? Is there a way to slow down this extreme confrontation, which threatens to erupt into an open, and possibly one day nuclear, war? The question lingering over everything is this: How can Iran still be prevented from building a nuclear bomb?

At what point could Iran have a nuclear bomb?

When asked whether Iran was already capable of building a bomb, the former head of the Iranian nuclear authority, Ali Akbar Salehi, recently replied in a television interview: "Imagine what a car needs; it needs a chassis, an engine, a steering wheel, a gearbox. You're asking if we've made the gearbox, I say yes. Have we made the engine? Yes."

The physicist and weapons expert David Albright, a former inspector with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), puts it more precisely. According to his estimate, Iran needs around six months to produce what is called a "crude" bomb that could be carried on a ballistic missile. However, this would require a decision from Revolutionary Leader Khamenei to lift the ban he imposed in 2003 on the production of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. A growing number of voices are now urging Khamenei to do precisely that. But so far, according to Albright, this decision apparently has not yet been made.

For a long time, it appeared that Iran could be dissuaded from building a bomb through diplomatic means: In 2015, the regime, which was ruled by a reform-oriented president at the time, concluded an agreement with the backing of the U.S., the European Union, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany. The so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran deal, called for Tehran to forfeit 97 percent of its low-enriched uranium. The stockpile of enriched uranium was to be exported almost entirely to Russia.

All of this took place in a different, more hopeful world: The West, Russia and China were still working together back then. In the meantime, the geopolitical situation has changed considerably. China and Russia are now firmly on Iran's side against the American-led world order. At a recent crisis meeting on Iran involving the U.S. and other countries, China and Russia were not even present.

Hardliners on all sides always wanted to torpedo the Iran deal: in Israel, the forces around Benjamin Netanyahu, the conservatives in Iran – and right-wing Republicans in the U.S. The main argument against the deal was that it didn't include Iran's missile program or its aggressive proxy forces in the Middle East. Proponents of the deal believed that they would be able to negotiate these issues in the next steps. But in 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal. His successor Joe Biden has tried to revive it, but those efforts have so far been in vain.

The International Atomic Energy Agency still has access to Iran's nuclear facilities, but entry has been severely restricted since the termination of the deal. "In the current chaos in the Middle East, they could try to use an excuse to deny the inspectors access to the enrichment facilities for a few days, as they did on the day of the drone attack on Israel," says former inspector Albright. It's not very difficult to increase the enrichment from 60 to 90 percent, meaning the amount needed for producing weapons-grade material.

Albright believes it is possible that Khamenei will reverse his decision "if the survival of the nation is at stake. They are so close that this alone could make it tempting to build the bomb. Still, the Iranians will have to weigh up what that means" – a likely war with Israel and possibly also with the U.S.

Conversely, Israel and the U.S. would also have to ask themselves what Iran's renewed response might look like. In any case, Israel has only limited possibilities for destroying Iran's nuclear program. "I think it is more likely that Israel will give a response that strengthens its deterrent but does not challenge Iran to a major attack."

Why were protests by women unable to topple the regime?

In the West, we have recently heard almost exclusively about protests in Iran: about the women in Tehran and other cities who threw off their headscarves a year and a half ago, about demonstrations in Kurdistan and Baluchistan, where participants were repeatedly killed with targeted shots.

The protests didn’t topple the regime, but they did demonstrate how great is the chasm between large segments of the population and the country’s rulers. Most Iranians don’t think much of the regime, and many don’t consider themselves to be in a conflict with Israel. At the same time, however, a faction of ultra-hardliners has developed in recent years – in parliament, among the clerics and among commanders of the Revolutionary Guards – called Jebhe-ye Paydari, or the Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution. And for them, the leadership of the aging Khamenei is too lax.

Instead of compromise, this group is demanding toughness, born out of a messianic tradition. The Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution, the Economist recently wrote, "are to Iran what the religious hard right are to Israel."

Step by step, these extremists are pushing the pragmatists out of the country’s circles of power. They are even enforcing the hated hijab requirement for women once again: On the day of the Iranian air attacks on Israel, the regime once again sent the morality police into the streets. And these hardliners are upping the pressure to transform the anti-Israeli and anti-Western propaganda into a real military conflict. Faced with the decision between losing face or getting Iran involved in a large war in the Middle East, they tend to favor the latter.

Where did the animosity between Iran and Israel come from?

The acrimony between the two countries is not rooted in a long, bellicose history. It began as a propaganda project of the Iranian Revolution, which put an end to the country’s monarchy in 1978-79.

Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran became one of the first countries to recognize Israel in 1948. The secret services of the two countries cooperated, and both states were united by their distance to their Arab neighbors. The young country of Israel helped Iran develop its agricultural sector and bought oil from the country.

Historian David Menashri, 79, was born as the son of Jewish parents in Tehran before emigrating with his parents to Israel, but he also spent several years in Iran in the 1970s. At that time, he says, the two countries had a relationship "like a marriage without a license" – a rapport that was shaped by religion from the very beginning. On the one hand, both countries considered themselves to be "chosen by God" by virtue of their long histories, says Menashri. But on the other, anti-Semitism had a long history in Iran.

There was, for example, a rule according to which Iranian Jews were not allowed to leave their homes when it was raining, because they were considered najis, ritually unclean, and water dripping off of them would allegedly impurify the streets. The shah, says Menashri, knew that he couldn’t be particularly open about his ties with the Israelis. The Israeli Embassy in Tehran did not fly the country’s flag and while the airline El Al had daily flights to the Iranian capital, those flights were not publicly displayed at Mehrabad Airport.

It was revolutionary leader Ruhollah Khomeini who declared Israel to be "Little Satan." The designation "Great Satan” was reserved for the U.S., which had provided the shah with military support for years. Kohmeini accused Israel of being an "enemy of Islam" and declared an annual Al-Quds Day, calling for the liberation of Jerusalem – though during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Khomeini had no compunctions about importing arms from Israel through secret channels. Israel’s leadership likewise kept open the possibility of resuming closer cooperation with Iran at some point in the future. For Khomeini, the Jewish state was a useful tool for whipping up the fervor of his followers. "If Israel hadn’t existed," says David Menashri, "his regime would have had to invent it."

Indeed, one reason Iranian propaganda later targeted Israel and the U.S. was because it so accurately reflected the mood on the streets of Arab countries, with which Iran was at odds and whose leaders were generally allied with the U.S.

Who actually rules Iran?

The Iranian regime is stable primarily due to its unique construction. Standing over everything is the country’s religious leader, Ali Khamenei.

In 1979, revolutionary leader Khomeini established the Pasdaran, the Revolutionary Guards, as a protective force against the country’s regular army, who Khomeini suspected of being disloyal.

Today, the Pasdaran, with almost 350,000 men, is the most powerful military force in Iran and has its own ground, air and naval forces in addition to an arsenal of missiles. The country’s nuclear program is also part of its portfolio as is the large Basij militia, which keeps close tabs on schools, universities, factories and official agencies to ensure that no opposition is allowed to develop.

The Revolutionary Guards are not under the control of the country’s elected president or the parliament, instead answering only to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who took charge when Khomeini died in 1989. He holds vastly more power than President Ebrahim Raisi, though the president is also considered to be a Khamenei ally.

The Pasdaran has become the gravitational center of the Iranian state. In addition to its military strength, it also has gigantic holdings through which it dominates every sector of the Iranian economy, including banks, construction companies, supermarket chains, oil refineries, airports, luxury hotels, eye clinics and newspapers.

But as sprawling as its economic empire is, the Pasadaran keeps its influence largely under wraps. Estimates as to the group’s contribution to Iran’s gross social product vary between one-third and two-thirds. General strikes of the kind that toppled the monarchy in 1978-79 become difficult when the regime also controls a majority of the economy.

Why is Iran spreading its influence across the Middle East?

From the very beginning, Khomeini’s Islamic Republic was anything but a peaceful state. But instead of seeing today’s archrival Israel as its biggest enemy, the focus was more on countries like Iraq, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, all of which the regime saw as rivals for the political, religious and economic dominance of the Middle East. To secure Iran’s influence in the region, the foreign, elite branch of the Pasdaran, the Al-Quds Brigades, was founded in 1988, named for the Arabic word for Jerusalem.

In the late 1990s, a man named Qassem Soleimani – a largely unknown officer at the time – took over control of the Al-Quds force. Marked by the horrors of the Iran-Iraq conflict, Soleimani set about building something new – a hybrid army made up of other nationalities but which would remain under his control. Soleimani was from the mountains of southern Iran, was fluent in the unwritten rules of the tribes, had experience as a wartime commander, exuded charisma and spoke perfect Arabic.

Over the course of several years, he discreetly built up a shadow army over which the Iranians had full control, but which didn’t involve Iranians themselves fighting and dying. His model foresaw providing financial and military support to fellow Shiites in other countries, religiously indoctrinating them and then deploying them as bridgeheads in the Arab world. The blueprint was the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Israel marched into the country in 1982 in order to drive out the leadership of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). In spring 2000, the Israelis withdrew, and Hezbollah posed as the country’s liberators.

Three years later, in 2003, a golden opportunity arose for Iran to expand its power: The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the country’s dictator. The majority of Iraqis are Shiites, and it didn’t take Iran long to fill the power vacuum. A growing number of militias were trained by Soleimani’s men.

The 2011 uprising in Syria as part of the Arab Spring provided the next opportunity. The Assad-family dictatorship in Damascus was Iran’s only Arab ally – and it couldn’t be allowed to fall. Indeed, Syria became the ultimate proving grounds for Soleimani’s creation. As of 2014, Iraqis began fighting at division strength in the region surrounding the Syrian capital of Aleppo, led by Hezbollah officers from Lebanon. Shiites from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen served as cannon fodder for the front lines. And Iran was pulling the strings.

General David Petraeus, who led the U.S. forces in Iraq in 2008, received what he says was a secret message at the time: "General Petraeus, you should know that I, Qassem Suleimani, control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan." It wasn’t bragging, it was just the truth.

Because Soleimani’s troops didn’t just battle it out with local forces, but increasingly with U.S. units as well, then-U.S. President Donald Trump made a far-reaching decision in January 2020: He had General Soleimani killed at the Baghdad airport using Hellfire missiles. Iran still hasn’t completely recovered from the loss, with Soleimani’s successor lacking his stature. But many of the militias once controlled by Soleimani still exist – and some, such as the Houthis in Yemen, have even grown stronger. "Their proximity to Iran gives them power over their competitors," says Middle East expert Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute in Washington. "Then: the weapon systems, suicide drones, missiles, plus the training effects. It's the complete package. It is truly a network, fascinating. Each of them operates in their own environment. They are part and parcel of a regional network."

Iran reacted to the assassination of Soleimani by firing missiles at U.S. military bases. But the response was far more modest than the attack unleashed on Israel following the killing of its generals in Damascus.

Why didn’t Iran’s allies launch attacks after October 7?

Many Western observers were surprised that Tehran and Hezbollah clearly held back following the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In truth, however, such reserve has not been uncommon in recent decades. Despite all the propaganda against the "Zionist entity," Soleimani’s successor in recent years has reportedly argued internally against provocations of Israel. Tehran may support Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, all of which are enemies of Israel, but control over Arab countries has always been more important to Tehran.

According to U.S. intelligence, Hamas launched the October 7 attack on its own and hoped that Hezbollah and Iran would join the war they started.

But that was never their intention, and now – after years of bellicose anti-Israeli and anti-Western propaganda – the Iranians found themselves facing a dilemma. That has been readily apparent by Hezbollah’s attempts since October 7 to lead a limited war across the Israeli border.

Revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei, recalls Israeli Iran expert Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a think tank in Tel Aviv, once said that Iran occasionally had to operate "like a boxer" and take punches if it served to achieve larger strategic aims.

What next?

The recent escalation between Iran and Israel – one which appears to have brought the Middle East closer than ever to a large conflict – was apparently the product of a far-reaching misjudgment three weeks ago. Israel’s government and security services came to the conclusion ahead of their April 1 airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that the leadership in Tehran would react to this strike with a relatively moderate response – as had been the case following a series of similar attacks in recent months.

Even though the Israelis had previously killed more than a dozen pro-Iran militia leaders in Syria and Lebanon, the attack on the consulate in Damascus "crossed a red line,” says Zimmt. "Apparently those responsible hadn’t registered that the Iranians could not accept the killing of such senior commanders, particularly at this place."

An extensive New York Times report confirmed that not only did the Israelis fail to coordinate with their allies in Washington ahead of the attack in Damascus, they also underestimated the fact "that the unwritten rules of engagement in the long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran have changed drastically in recent months.”

Since October 7, the result has been "escalation after escalation and miscalculation after miscalculation." And that has raised fears "of a retribution cycle that could potentially become an all-out war."

And with Iran and Israel firing on each other more directly than ever before, this danger has not exactly grown smaller.

**The Phoenix symbolizes former President Donald Trump.** ***What is coming up in November?***
`Artwork - All rights reserved by Germán & Co.`

Do not limit your imagination…

The New York Times article by Stephen Markley, dated April 20, 2024.

In the 12 years it took me to write “The Deluge,” my novel of the climate crisis, I watched as chaotic weather, record temperatures and shocking political events outpaced my imagination. The book depicts the human tipping point, when the damage becomes irreversible and the foundations of our economy, our politics and our world begin to crack. The plot points I was concocting in 2010 would become a constant drumbeat of headlines into 2024.

Last year alone, the warning signs included soaring ocean temperatures, a record loss of Antarctic Sea ice and the highest global average temperature in recorded human history. Wildfires, droughts, floods and extreme weather of every variety have come to shock even the scientists who study the shocking stuff. This is not the history we want to be living through.

Yet here we are, and those gears of history will grind together again this year as another presidential election meets our permanent emergency. The stakes of the climate crisis render the cliché of “This is the most important election of our lifetimes” increasingly true because every four years those stakes climb precipitously alongside the toppling records of a radically new climatic regime.

The White House may soon be recaptured by Donald Trump, who called the climate crisis a “hoax” and even when backing off that assertion insisted, “I don’t know that it’s man-made.” He has demonstrated his thinking again and again, as when he told a scientist, “It’ll start getting cooler, you just watch.”

There has recently been a great deal of reporting on Project 2025, a 900-plus-page road map for a second Trump administration assembled by the conservative Heritage Foundation. On climate, the report is succinct: “The Biden administration’s climate fanaticism will need a whole-of-government unwinding.”

The report recommends a repeal of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act, which would shred the tax credits that have led to hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in clean energy, the jump-starting of factory openings and the creation of jobs in virtually every corner of the country. Also lost will be investments in environmental justice, those measures that aim to reduce pollution in marginalized communities, provide affordable clean energy and create jobs in low-income neighborhoods. As for electric cars, which are critical to meeting the nation’s climate goals, the report recommends an end to all federal mandates and subsidies.

A second Trump administration would most likely grant permits for fossil fuel drilling and pipelines basically anywhere it has the say-so, scrap the methane fee on oil and gas producers and dismantle new pollution limits on cars, trucks and power plants. It would almost certainly revoke California’s waiver to approve higher standards under the Clean Air Act, seek repeal of the Antiquities Act used to protect endangered landscapes and attempt to gut the Endangered Species Act.

A changing climate, a changing world

The role of our leaders: Writing at the end of 2020, Al Gore, the 45th vice president of the United States, found reasons for optimism in the Biden presidency, a feeling perhaps borne out by the passing of major climate legislation. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been criticisms. For example, Charles Harvey and Kurt House argue that subsidies for climate capture technology will ultimately be a waste.

The worst climate risks, mapped: In this feature, select a country, and we'll break down the climate hazards it faces. In the case of America, our maps, developed with experts, show where extreme heat is causing the most deaths.

What people can do: Justin Gillis and Hal Harvey describe the types of local activism that might be needed, while Saul Griffith points to how Australia shows the way on rooftop solar. Meanwhile, small changes at the office might be one good way to cut significant emissions, writes Carlos Gamarra.

But perhaps most ominously, a Trump presidency would impede Americans’ ability to find out what’s being done to them. Project 2025 proposes dismantling and privatizing parts of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal agency that studies and monitors the climate, and using an executive order to “reshape” the Global Change Research Program, apparently to muddy its assessments of the pace of climate change and the potential impact. We would walk into this new dark era with a blindfold on.

Mr. Trump is at heart a billionaire doing favors for other billionaires by cutting their taxes and eliminating or not enforcing rules that protect the rest of us from asthma and cancer. During his four years in office, he managed to dismantle or degrade over 100 environmental rules, which brought real-world death and suffering. The medical journal The Lancet estimated that in the year 2019 alone these policies led to 22,000 excess deaths from heart disease, asthma and lung cancer, among other causes.

For all the damage that was done, Mr. Trump and his administration fortunately proved incompetent at making the government fulfill his intentions. We shouldn’t delude ourselves with thinking that he and his allies will be caught as flatfooted as they were by their surprise victory in 2016. What Project 2025 demonstrates is that an enormous amount of thinking has gone in to how to destroy the government’s capacity to enforce environmental protections, conduct research or even assess the scientific reality of our situation. Of course, the worst-case scenario, a full or partial repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, will depend on the composition of Congress.

My advice is to not tell yourself comforting bedtime stories about the political resiliency of that law when so many of its benefits lie in the years ahead.

One can hold up a document like Project 2025 and shout from the rooftops just how extreme it is. One can attempt to use numbers to describe this danger. But everyone will fall short — and, surely, I’ve fallen short — in describing just how frightening a second Trump presidency could actually be.

Do not limit your imagination…

Mr. Trump himself offered a glimpse in a recent meeting with oil and gas executives at Mar-a-Lago, where, The Washington Post reported, he said, “I hate wind.” He also told the executives that they should contribute to his campaign, that his policies would be much better for oil and gas than President Biden’s and that he’d do much of what they wanted “on Day 1.”

History will fork, and in a single day our window of opportunity for keeping the climate crisis from spiraling out of control could very well slam shut. Global emissions must peak this decade and begin a rapid decline for the world to have any chance of avoiding catastrophic warming. When I began writing my novel, we had something like 20 years to accomplish that task. After the election, we will have 62 months.

This makes the 2024 election a singular event in the climate crisis. Despite a number of headwinds, renewable energy capacity boomed last year, increasing 50 percent globally. According to the International Energy Agency, global renewable capacity is on course to be at two and a half times current levels by 2030, which means the world is edging closer to achieving a key climate target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. The risks of the crisis are growing rapidly, but so is our capacity to confront this challenge at the speed and scale necessary. We must accelerate that momentum at all costs.

The other major candidate in the race, President Biden, has been a steadfast proponent of that acceleration.

I fully admit, Mr. Biden was not my first, nor even my seventh, choice in the 2020 Democratic primary. Yet when it came to the immense challenge of confronting this crisis, I am forever grateful that he proved me wrong, delivering a game-changing victory with the narrowest of congressional margins. Even as much of the rest of Mr. Biden’s ambitious policy agenda got hacked away in Congress, one thing remained: re-industrialization through clean energy investment.

This led to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate legislation the country has ever seen and a more important achievement than the Paris climate accord. In just two years, that bill has galvanized clean energy investment in the United States and set a pace for the rest of the world to compete in the growing clean energy economy. These investments are expected to create more than nine million jobs over the next decade. That growth in clean energy is not only breaking records by the year but also by the quarter, with the end of 2023 seeing a 40 percent increase in investments in clean energy and transportation over the last quarter of 2022.

As those industries of decarbonization spread to every state and to many congressional districts, people’s lives and livelihoods increasingly will become intertwined and invested in clean energy. When a Texas congressman can’t survive an election in a solidly Republican district without the backing of the wind and solar industries, when a battery factory in Hardin County, Ky., is employing 5,000 people, when the fossil fuel economy is falling to the zero-carbon infrastructure we demand, that will change a politician’s calculations. The increasing political and economic clout of those clean energy industries will challenge the fossil fuel status quo. We are at the beginning of an absolute revolution of the American economy that will send manufacturing soaring and pollution plummeting.

Any climate hawk could try to encumber my argument with caveats, unaddressed pet issues and whatabouts, but as far as our shared atmosphere is concerned, there are only three pieces of relevant information: who Joe Biden is, who Donald Trump is, and the urgency of the crisis before us. While it’s true the United States continues to produce record amounts of fossil gas and near-record amounts of oil, these numbers reflect the all-of-the-above energy policies of the past 15 years. The Inflation Reduction Act and several critical regulations from Mr. Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency will drive the decarbonization that should put us within striking distance of our Paris climate agreement target by 2030, something that seemed unfathomable four years ago.

It’s worth dissecting how we achieved such progress. This stunning victory was made possible only by Stacey Abrams’s tenacious work in Georgia to flip two U.S. Senate seats in 2020, giving Mr. Biden a Senate majority on top of a House majority (which he narrowly lost in 2022).

Work is also underway on the state and local levels. In the last four years, Democrats have led efforts in Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan and Washington to pass ambitious climate laws when voters demanded it. In major cities, we see aggressive action like Minneapolis’s Climate Equity Plan and Chicago’s push to end natural gas hookups for new construction.

From small cities like Athens, Ohio, which has a citywide carbon fee, to high school students campaigning for solar panels and electric buses, citizens can drive the movement to electrify everything and crush demand for fossil fuels. State public utility commissions remain ignored players with their hands on the controls of enormous amounts of carbon, ripe for campaigns to elect or appoint climate-oriented members. Whether we’re voting for president or state legislator or dogcatcher, we should vote for a dogcatcher who recognizes the imperative of the climate crisis.

The lesson being that the only thing that has worked, and must continue to work, is democracy at every level. None of us have the option to be cynical, to disdain electoral politics or to pretend we’re not making a distinct moral choice when voting for a third-party candidate or sitting out an election.

Right now, this means electing Democrats. The expiration of many of the Trump tax cuts in 2025 could create the leverage to push climate efforts even farther. We must look at this election and understand that it’s now or never — that we can create the opportunity for the United States to smash past its emission reduction goals and spur the rest of the world to follow. The climate movement can either fight like hell for Mr. Biden’s re-election or watch as Mr. Trump and his allies set fire to the planet.

Climate is not just another issue. I do not deny that we live in a complex and precarious world or that our consciences are torn by a web of domestic challenges and geopolitical upheavals. But we are in denial if we do not recognize that this is the crisis that will define this century, and if we fail, the entire human future. Our fossil fuel system is driving the planet to a set of conditions that humanity has never experienced, where even the imagination of novelists will fail us.

And yet the climate crisis is also the foundation on which we can build a more just, equitable and prosperous world. Every election is precious, every ballot we cast a moral record of what we did in this crucial historical moment. Do not sit on your hands, do not deny the stakes, do not waste that vote.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

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Germán & Co 4/19/24 Germán & Co 4/19/24

Putin is bombing Ukraine into darkness — and leaving Europe short of power

Notes from the editor:

In the vast expanse of European politics, Ursula von der Leyen, the vigilant guardian of the European Commission, keeps a keen eye on the ever-shifting landscape. Her deliberations on the potential flare-up of conflicts carry significant weight, given the intricate historical backdrop and power plays across the continent.

Across the Atlantic, the United States is deeply immersed in diplomatic endeavors to ease tensions in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu, the influential Prime Minister of Israel, holds a crucial role in the region, and the U.S. is working tirelessly to avert any actions that could spark a larger conflagration.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin's unyielding bombardment in Ukraine has left a path of devastation in its wake. Key power facilities, vital for electricity generation, have been mercilessly targeted, with the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant near Kyiv now reduced to rubble. The compromised energy infrastructure in Ukraine is impacting millions, while Europe grapples with the fallout of its energy supply vulnerabilities.

The repercussions of the conflict ripple far beyond Ukraine's borders, presenting challenges for Europe. The destruction of power installations imperils stability and security, highlighting the interconnectedness of energy grids.

In this intricate ballet of geopolitical forces, the stakes are sky-high, and the global audience watches with bated breath. A beacon of hope shines on diplomatic endeavors, resilience, and international cooperation as the world navigates the crisis, striving to forge a path towards peace and stability.

Image: Artwork by Germán & Co

The EU relies on Kyiv for energy. So Russia is attacking the critical storage sites that hold Europe’s gas.

Notes from the editor:

In recent days, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has been addressing the potential for increased warfare in Europe. Meanwhile, the United States is engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's influential Prime Minister, plays a pivotal role in these developments, with the U.S. striving to prevent any escalation. Concurrently, Putin's relentless bombing campaign in Ukraine has wrought devastation, impacting not only Ukraine but also the broader European region. The ongoing conflict's severe impacts are resonating beyond the immediate areas, raising concerns and challenges at a continental level.

Here are the key points:

Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure Under Attack:
- Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy transformers for the past two years, facilitating power distribution.
- However, the recent shift involves direct attacks on entire power plants, causing more permanent damage.
- The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, once a significant electricity producer for millions and a symbol of Ukraine's energy independence, now lies in ruins near Kyiv.Due to these attacks, DTEK, Ukraine’s most prominent private energy firm and a major contributor to the country's economy, has lost nearly 80% of its generating capacity.Repairing the damage will take years, leaving Ukraine in a precarious and desperate situation, struggling to keep the lights and heating on during the upcoming winter. The vulnerability of the nation is stark and deeply concerning.Ukraine’s air defences are depleted, making it challenging to fend off the missiles raining down on energy infrastructure.
Spillover to Europe:
- Last winter, Ukraine offered its gas storage network to European traders to build up reserves in case of Russian supply disruptions.
- Now, Russia is targeting that very network, raising concerns about Europe’s preparedness for alternative energy sources.
- Oleg Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist, emphasizes that Russia is using energy as a weapon not only against Ukraine but against the entire world.
A Dispiriting Development:
- Until recently, Ukraine was optimistic about becoming an energy powerhouse for Europe and exporting electricity to its Western neighbours.
- Now, the destruction of power plants and infrastructure threatens stability and security.

The situation is critical, and the impact extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. Europe must grapple with the consequences of this energy crisis caused by conflict and aggression. It is crucial for us, as global citizens, to stay informed and advocate for peaceful resolutions to such conflicts.

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POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VICTOR JACK, APRIL 17, 2024 6:00 AM CET

Just outside Kyiv is a smoking crater where one of Ukraine's largest power plants used to be.

The bombed-out ruin of the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant — the main electricity producer for millions of people — is a symbol of a devastating shift underway in Ukraine. In recent weeks, Russia has started inflicting far more permanent damage on Ukraine’s energy system, not only taking out generating stations but even going after the vast underground gas storage facilities the EU leaned on last winter to avoid its own energy shortages.

It's a change from the past two years, when Moscow and its invading army mostly targeted Ukraine’s energy transformers, the components that move power from one circuit to another. Such attacks were damaging, but the parts could be quickly repaired or substituted.Now that entire power plants are in their crosshairs, the repairs are going to take years. And the storage strikes may deprive Europe of a critical backup plan.

"Our thermal power plants have been attacked 48 times over the past six months, but without a doubt, Russia’s attacks in the past few weeks have been the worst since [the] full-scale invasion in 2022," Maxim Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine's largest private energy firm, DTEK, told POLITICO.

The company, he said, has now lost close to 80 percent of its generating capacity.

The results are distressing — and not just for Ukraine. Officials there are worried about how they’ll get through the winter with the lights and heating on. Ukraine’s air defenses are running low, they say, making it increasingly difficult to parry the missiles raining down on energy infrastructure. Nor are there many easy-to-access repair parts for those degraded power plants.

Then there’s the spillover to Europe. Last winter Ukraine offered its gas storage network to European traders as they frantically built up reserves in case Russia axed supplies when the temperature dropped. Now Russia is targeting that network, raising questions about whether the EU is prepared with alternatives.

"The Russians have been trying to use energy as a weapon not just against Ukraine but against the whole world," said Oleg Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist who until recently served as a senior advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “This is a challenge for us, but it's also a challenge for Europe.”

Gridlock

It’s a dispiriting development in an area that, until recently, was a source of optimism for Ukraine.

Just weeks ago Ukraine was pitching itself as a powerhouse for Europe, boasting of exporting around €1 million in electricity daily to its Western neighbors. Now the financial balance has flipped, with Kyiv draining its precarious budget to import energy as it struggles to avoid blackouts and power a wartime arms industry.

"There's enormous pressure, especially in regions like Kharkiv where all our main assets were attacked by missiles and we are trying to restore as much power as possible while the adversary is undertaking more and more new attacks," said Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, CEO of state power grid operator Ukrenergo, in an interview.

"I'm sure we will be able to get the grid up and running,” he added, “but the generation of power seems to be the main problem."

According to Timchenko, only support from Ukraine's allies can save the grid from more destruction.

"Unfortunately, the passive defenses DTEK has been installing — such as concrete blocks and sandbags — have only had a limited effect against these precision attacks,” he said. “We urgently need stronger air defenses to save and protect Ukraine’s energy system."

Kyiv has been calling on its partners to step up and help it defend its infrastructure since the start of the new wave of bombardments in March.

Speaking in the aftermath of the Trypilska power plant bombing, Zelenskyy said: "11 missiles flew towards it. We destroyed the first seven; four others destroyed the plant. Why? Because there were zero [Ukrainian] missiles — we have run out of all the missiles that protected Trypilska."

For now, though, a critical aid package for Ukraine is tied up within a months-long deadlock in Washington.

On Monday Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko held emergency talks in Brussels with the EU's energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, as the situation continued to deteriorate. According to a Ukrainian official with knowledge of the talks, the minister focused on "further international steps and assistance needed to support the energy system of Ukraine — with foremost priority to ensure more air defense."

While Germany confirmed over the weekend it would ship one additional Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine, many see that as too little, too late following attacks that have deprived the country of its energy independence. Now, instead of helping the EU break its dependence on Russian fossil fuels by providing cheap electricity, Kyiv is left hoping that its neighbors will help it keep the lights on in the coming months, and maybe years.

"This is having dramatic economic effects," Ustenko said. "It's very unlikely we will be able to continue exports and probably will be needing to import electricity."

To make matters worse, he added, the mounting attacks risk deterring the private investors that Ukraine needs to modernize its beleaguered grid and roll out smaller renewable energy projects that will be harder for the Russians to target.

Gas fears

Ukraine’s energy troubles are increasingly becoming Europe’s energy troubles as well.

Last week Russia signaled a potential new phase in its energy assault, striking two separate sites tied to Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage network.

The facilities were crucial to Europe’s energy efforts last winter, with traders stashing billions of cubic meters of fuel there in case of acute shortages. The extra storage capacity gave EU countries easy access to the supplies and allowed companies to store excess fuel they would otherwise have had nowhere to put — and which they would have been forced to sell off at a cost of up to €2 billion.

"Ukraine saved Europe's ass," said Aura Sabadus, a gas expert at commodities intelligence firm ICIS. "And the tragedy is that the gas they were storing comes from countries that are opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, most of it comes from Hungary and Slovakia. And ultimately that will backfire.”

There’s more supply uncertainty on the horizon for Europe, too. At the end of the year a transit deal allowing Russia to send pipeline gas to the EU via Ukraine is set to expire, and Kyiv is insisting the pact will not be extended.

"The horror scenario is no Ukrainian storage facilities in December, no transit," Sabadus said. "Then what do we actually do? And even longer term, with another huge glut of liquefied natural gas coming in from the U.S. and Qatar from 2025 onwards, where are we going to put all that as a security of supply measure?"

According to Ustenko, the former Zelenskyy advisor, the longer the West waffles over handing Ukraine more air defense systems, the worse it will be for everyone involved.

"We need to save our country, save our people, and the sooner decisions about anti-air missiles are taken, the better it's going to be for Ukraine and Europe,” he said.

Speaking to POLITICO, the European Commission's energy spokesperson Tim McPhie said that the bloc has and will continue to help Ukraine repair the damage to its energy system. "This is done first and foremost for the benefit of our Ukrainian friends; the gas stored in Ukraine is only a small percentage of our domestic needs in Europe, though of course this extra capacity is welcome and useful.”

"We will continue to provide the necessary support to respond to Ukraine’s energy needs. This includes the repair of the gas storage sites which have recently been attacked, continued electricity exports through our synchronized electricity grids, and material contributions through the Ukraine Energy Support Fund and the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.”

Gabriel Gavin reported from Berlin. Victor Jack reported from Brussels. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.

This article has been updated with a response from the European Commission.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

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Germán & Co 4/17/24 Germán & Co 4/17/24

Why This Narrow Strait Next to Iran Is So Critical to the World’s Oil Supply (NYT)

Notes from the editor:

The risks associated with deviations in the human brain are a pressing concern for society. The current global landscape is characterized by a sense of uncertainty, with poverty and inflation shaping an unpredictable future. In this evolving scenario, advanced technologies such as drones and missiles perform intricate and deadly maneuvers in the sky. Despite the marvels of futuristic technology, a sense of emptiness pervades, symbolized by the absence of rain, a vital element for sustaining life. This new reality was set in motion on November 17, 2019, in Wuhan, China, when the SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified. The subsequent classification of this virus as a coronavirus by the Royal Spanish Academy marked the beginning of a tumultuous period marked by loss and suffering due to what is believed to be a human error in a laboratory.

The impact of the pandemic extends beyond a mere health crisis, leading to widespread human suffering and economic turmoil, resulting in unprecedented levels of inflation on a global scale. The shortage of essential resources, including food and raw materials, has contributed to this economic upheaval. Central banks have attempted to mitigate these challenges through conventional tools such as interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing, and forward guidance. However, the complexity of the current situation suggests that additional measures may be necessary to address the multifaceted issues at hand.

Furthermore, geopolitical events such as Russia's expansion into Ukraine have exacerbated the inflationary pressures by disrupting the natural gas supply to Europe. This development, along with other global conflicts, underscores the interconnected nature of international relations and their impact on economic stability. The longstanding rivalry between Israel and Iran exemplifies how ideological differences and territorial disputes can have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only the involved parties but also global stability.

The current state of affairs reflects a departure from conventional norms, with the delicate balance between growth and stability teetering on the brink of collapse. As humanity grapples with the complexities of diplomacy, economic equilibrium, and geopolitical tensions, it becomes evident that underlying these challenges are deviations in human behavior. The pursuit of power, political exploitation, and the relentless accumulation of wealth at the expense of others have contributed to the crises of the pandemic, war, and inflation. These deviations underscore the urgent need for a collective reevaluation of priorities and values to address the stark realities facing society.

In conclusion, the unfolding events on the global stage serve as a stark reminder of the consequences of human actions and the imperative for a collective response to navigate the uncertainties of the present era.

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New Maui Fire Report Shows the Role Hawaiian Electric Power Line Played in Deadly Blaze

Hawaii attorney general report includes transcripts of communications on the day Lahaina was destroyed

The report provides details about high winds and a downed power line on the day catastrophic flames engulfed the historic town last summer.

The Wall Street Journal article by Dan Frosch and Christine Mai-Duc dated April 17, 2024.

**Friendly Arab nations urge restraint, but will Netanyahu listen?**

***“The world awaits Israel's response following Iran's assault, and whether "Bibi" will emulate the restraint shown by a legendary predecessor…***
`https://www.politico.eu/article/friendly-arab-nations-urge-restraint-but-will-netanyahu-listen/`

What is happening in August?

After reading the amazing article in The New York Times today: “Miscalculation Led to Escalation in Clash Between Israel and Iran”/ Israeli officials say they didn’t see a strike on a high-level Iranian target in Syria as a provocation, and did not give Washington a heads-up about it until right before it happened…

The Israeli official asserted that the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, (blowing up the building and killing some high-ranking officials) was not a deliberate provocation. If we interpret his words correctly, He meant it as merely a "friendly reminder." The pertinent question, then, is whether it is possible to reach August…

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html

Editorial:

The dangers of deviation in the human brain . . .

Humanity faces a 'cosmic discord' with poverty and inflation shaping an uncertain future.

In this new celestial, mysterious, treacherous and absurd theatre, drones and missiles perform a deadly ballet, with movements cutting across the sky with surgical fluidity. Picture this: a world filled with futuristic technology that surpasses our wildest imaginations. Despite all its wonders, however, a void persists. The rain, that magical elixir of life, is nowhere to be seen. Not even a hint of argent droplets to quench the parched earth. It’s a strange new world indeed.

The brewing chaos began on a fateful day—November 17, 2019—in Wuhan, China. It was then that SARS-CoV-2, a deceptively simple collection of proteins and nucleic acids, was first detected. The virus, which can only reproduce within specific living cells, has since been classified as coronavirus by the Royal Spanish Academy.

What brutality has ensued from this unassuming organism? How many loved ones are missing from our side today? And all because of a supposed human error in a laboratory.

With the emergence of the virus, genuine expressions of affection, handshakes and hugs—which do so much good for the so-called soul—were replaced by immaterial faces called emojis, which flow at an infinite density (billions per second), devoid of any merciful human contact. This microscopic life form would cause us to die.

Not even the science fiction genius James Graham Ballard (born in Shanghai, 1930 and died in London, 2009) could have envisioned the impact on the future of a community of individuals living on a small, isolated and ailing planet called Earth.

The pandemic is not a mere health crisis; it has engendered extensive human suffering and economic upheaval, leading to unparalleled levels of inflation on a global scale. This eroding onslaught is born of shortages in food, raw materials and almost of kinds of components rather than an overheating economy.

The question is, how can central banks stabilise the process by raising interest rates?

The results defy expectations.

“Why Better Times (and Big Raises) Haven’t Cured the Inflation Hangover/Frustrated by higher prices, many Pennsylvanians with fresh pay raises and solid finances report a sense of insecurity lingering from the pandemic…

The New York Times article by Talmon Joseph Smith, dated April 15, 2024.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html

Central banks use their tools—interest rates, quantitative easing (a monetary policy tool that can stimulate or restrain the economy) and forward guidance (a communication tool used by central banks to influence market expectations)—to tame the beast. This time, however, the wild beast seems unyielding, and more than these traditional instruments may be needed to address the complex issues confronting us.

To exacerbate the situation, Russia expanded its incursion into Ukraine in 2023., decreasing the natural gas supply to Europe and causing the price of this fuel to rise. This development has further aggravated the inflationary process, even as it is unrelated to the gas supply issue. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine has also opened the door for other governments to deploy military intervention to address historical border problems in all corners of the world.

A case in point is Israel and Iran’s centuries-old rivalry: fuelled by ideology, territorial disputes and historical grievances but extends, as well, beyond a power struggle. Their actions ripple across borders, affecting their citizens and the delicate balance of global stability. The war in which they engage—subtle yet potent—has the potential to reshape alliances, redraw boundaries and alter the course of history, leaving countless lives shattered in its wake.

Conventional equations have been rendered obsolete. The delicate balance between growth and stability is on the verge of collapse. And so, the world spins—a theatre of intrigue, a canvas of uncertainty.

Israel and Iran are locked in a tense standoff, and as inflation follows an intractable trajectory, humanity wrestles with questions that have no simple answers.

Will diplomacy prevail? Can economies find equilibrium? Or are we witnessing a grand unravelling—a symphony of chaos and consequence?

Why is this phenomenon occurring? The answer lies in deviations in the human mind: addiction to power, the exploitation of political authority for one’s benefit, which leads to the petty accumulation of wealth, with people completely forgetting that what is sufficient and necessary must be an imperative for all members of the human family. The pandemic, the war, inflation—all spawns of these deviations. This is not simply a theoretical concept but a stark reality that we must confront.

While many of us contemplate drones, cruise missiles and whatever else is up whoever’s sleeves, these technologies cast a shadow over the skies of the Middle East, complicating the survival of billions who inhabit this sick planet instead of contributing to a better world.

Only time will tell—the ultimate arbiter, the silent witness to our collective drama.

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Thank you, Manuel…

`The withdrawal of Iraqi forces during Operation Desert Storm led to the burning of Kuwaiti oil wells, which darkened the skies with smoke on March 25, 1991.. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.`

“Global financial markets have been affected by geopolitical tensions for many years. For example, in the 1970s, conflicts in the Middle East resulted in significant disruptions to oil supply, leading to a surge in oil prices and subsequent economic repercussions on a global scale. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the end of the Cold War. This ushered in a new era in international relations, causing volatility and uncertainty in global markets as investors adapted to the changing geopolitical landscape. The United Kingdom's 2016 referendum on EU membership also had a notable effect on financial markets, with stock market fluctuations, currency depreciation, and heightened investor anxiety stemming from uncertainties surrounding the UK's future relationship with the European Union. The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have further contributed to market volatility, impacting global supply chains, corporate profits, and investor sentiment. Geopolitical events can disrupt financial markets, influencing asset prices, investor confidence, and economic stability.,,

The New York Times article by Karl Russell, Denise Lu, and Anjali Singhvi was updated on July 11, 2019.

Twenty percent of the global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water that separates Persian Gulf countries from the rest of the world.

From May 15 to June 15, more than 1,000 tanker ships traveled the strait, according to MarineTraffic, an industry analytics firm. Many were destined for places as far away as China and South Korea.

But the gulf region has been recently rocked by instability, threatening the flow of oil through the strait. Since May, six tankers have been attacked along the strait. On Thursday, British officials said Iranian boats threatened to block one of its vessels from passing through the waterway.

The instability comes amid rising tensions between Iran and the United States and some of its allies. Last year, President Trump abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and has since imposed crippling sanctions on the country. Iran, in defiance, has begun stockpiling and enriching uranium at higher levels.

If tensions persist, disruptions along the strait, where the shipping channel is barely two miles wide, could be felt by dozens of countries that buy Middle Eastern oil in large quantities.

Oil consumption by Asian countries has surged

In the past two decades, oil consumption has exploded in countries like China and India, where expanding middle classes have driven large-scale economic growth. China’s demand for oil has nearly tripled over that period. During that time, the United States remained the world’s biggest consumer of oil, going through tens of millions of barrels a day.

The U.S. has come back as a global oil
player, reducing its reliance on foreign oil

A recent shale-drilling boom in the United States has caused the production of oil and gas in the country to skyrocket, making America less dependent on imports and allowing it to reclaim its role as a leader in the global energy industry. Oil production in the United States grew an extraordinary 17 percent last year.

The surge has changed the dynamics of the world’s oil market, which has long taken its cues from OPEC, the cartel of oil producers that includes Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran.

In previous eras, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz might have spooked the oil market; the market’s response to the recent instability has been relatively muted, in part because of how much oil now comes from the United States.

The American sanctions have
decimated Iran’s oil exports

As its reliance on Middle Eastern oil has decreased, the United States has found itself in a stronger position when dealing with countries like Iran.

The American sanctions, although not adopted by all nations, allow the United States to punish companies and countries that engage in trade with Iran. Oil exports have long been the lifeblood of the Iranian economy.

Some countries were initially granted waivers under the sanctions, but many have stopped buying oil from Iran to avoid the risk of being punished by the United States. Iran’s exports have since plummeted.

Note: Map shows estimated position of all tankers leaving or entering the Persian Gulf from May 15 to June 15. Tankers include all vessels in the general ‘Tanker’ category of Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmitted ship type data, such as crude oil or chemical tankers. Countries visited are based on where port calls were made.

Stanley Reed contributed reporting.

New Maui Fire Report Shows the Role Hawaiian Electric Power Line Played in Deadly Blaze

Hawaii attorney general report includes transcripts of communications on the day Lahaina was destroyed

The report provides details about high winds and a downed power line on the day catastrophic flames engulfed the historic town last summer.

The Wall Street Journal article by Dan Frosch and Christine Mai-Duc dated April 17, 2024.

A Maui County emergency dispatcher called Hawaiian Electric early on Aug. 8 last year and said one of the utility’s power lines had broken and started a fire near Lahaina, according to a new report issued by the Hawaii attorney general’s office.

The blaze, which ultimately destroyed the historic Maui town later that day and killed at least 101 people, can be traced back to that morning incident, the report said.

The 376-page report, released by Hawaii Attorney General Anne Lopez on Wednesday, includes transcripts of communication from Hawaiian Electric and emergency responders about where the fire ignited and whether the utility’s power lines had been de-energized in high winds.

While the report doesn’t assign blame for the disaster, it provides the most comprehensive account thus far of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in a century, including the roles that downed power lines and wind played.

Origins of the Lahaina Wildfire

“The origin of the Lahaina Fire can be traced back to 6:35 a.m., when a fast-moving brush fire, later dubbed the ‘Lahaina AM Fire’ ignited,” said the report, which was produced by the Fire Safety Research Institute in Columbia, Md., at the request of Lopez.

Maui firefighters reported that blaze was extinguished and returned to their quarters at around 2 p.m. A second fire was reported at around 2:55 p.m., at the same location as the earlier incident, according to the report.

A representative for Hawaiian Electric said the report’s description of the early-morning fire aligns with what it has said publicly. The company has previously said that its power lines likely caused that fire, but that its lines had been shut off for more than six hours by the time the afternoon blaze erupted. That second blaze, the company stated in response to a lawsuit filed by Maui County, was the one that destroyed Lahaina.

Wednesday’s report doesn’t address the utility’s claims about when its power lines were de-energized.

Even before the Lahaina fire sparked that day, Hawaiian Electric was dealing with damaged poles from high winds and another blaze that had sparked near downed lines on the other side of the island.

“The rate of the fire’s growth would ultimately impede the crew’s work in many areas of Lahaina,” the report said.

Firefighters in deadly danger

Conditions deteriorated so dramatically that water pipes failed, and in some parts of Lahaina, there was no water coming from fire hydrants. Fire crews had to rely on scarce private water tankers instead, the report said.

Some fire crews became trapped. Heat from the fire melted their boots and sealed shut the compartment doors on one engine.

One firefighter used a police SUV to rescue seven colleagues, including an unconscious officer who received CPR, according to the report.ments, saying local officials’ lack of response had slowed the investigation. The county has said it is fully cooperating with the attorney general’s probe.

Shares in Hawaiian Electric Industries have fallen 10.1% over the past five days, amid investor anticipation of the report. They rose 2.63% Wednesday, closing at $9.77.

The Lahaina blaze destroyed more than 2,200 structures and caused an estimated $5.5 billion in damages, displacing more than 6,000 of the town’s 13,000 residents.

As of February, Hawaiian Electric had been named in at least 101 lawsuits by plaintiffs claiming losses related to the fire. Maui County has also been sued by people seeking damages resulting from the fire.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Hawaiian Electric and Maui County knew about the increasing threat of wildfires on the island but took little action. The Journal also reported that large landowners, including the state and Kamehameha Schools, allowed invasive grasses to grow in the hills above Lahaina, which led to the fire’s spread. The state said it has tried to mitigate vegetation with limited funds. Kamehameha Schools said it was committed to being safe stewards of its land.

Hawaiian Electric, the county, the state and Kamehameha Schools all put more than $150 million into a victims’ compensation fund for families of the deceased who agree not to bring wrongful death suits.

Maui’s fire department issued its own report a day earlier

In its own report released Tuesday, the Maui fire department said it lacked sufficient water tankers and fire engines to combat the Lahaina blaze. That report, produced by the Western Fire Chiefs Association, also said the department did minimal work to staff up and preposition resources amid warnings of strong winds that posed a high wildfire risk.

It said firefighters remained on scene for more than five hours after containing the earlier Lahaina brush fire, “using copious amounts of water” and firefighting foam to make sure it wouldn’t reignite.

At a press conference Tuesday, Maui County Fire Chief Brad Ventura painted a picture of a fully staffed fire department facing impossible odds against a fierce wind-swept disaster.

“No training is going to overcome what they faced that day,” Ventura told reporters.

What other reports about the Lahaina fire are still in the works?

Two additional reports by the Fire Safety Research Institute—one on how Maui’s fire protection systems functioned during the Lahaina blaze and one on recommendations for the future—are expected to be released later this year by the Hawaii attorney general’s office.

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is conducting a separate investigation into how the fire began at the request of Maui County fire officials and is expected to release its findings soon

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 4/15/24 Germán & Co 4/15/24

Pompous or nefarious? Middle East Conflict on Oil Markets? Iraq-Iran war parallels Israeli-Iran conflict?

Introduction of the Middle East Conflict on Oil Markets:

If Shakespeare were to momentarily shift his focus from contemplating profound existential dilemmas, such as the timeless "To be or not to be" or the more contemporary quandary of "Married or unmarried," he might discover that the intricate complexities of the enduring Middle East conflict appear surprisingly less daunting than the decision to say "I do" or not.

The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, such as Iran's drone and missile strikes on Israel, has raised concerns about possible disruptions in oil supply and resulting market volatility. Despite tensions, the oil market has seen a slight price decrease, with Light Crude Oil Futures showing a marginal decline. Traders need to monitor further dynamic developments closely.

“The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, released on October 30, 2023, states that the current global economy is more resilient to oil price shocks compared to the 1970s. The ongoing Middle East conflict and the Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead global commodity markets into uncharted territory. The report advises mitigating impacts if the conflict does not intensify. The baseline forecast anticipates oil prices to average $90 per barrel this quarter, with a projected fall to $81 per barrel next year as global economic growth decelerates. Commodity prices are expected to fall by 4.1% next year, with agricultural commodity prices likely to decrease due to higher supplies. Base metal prices are projected to drop by 5% in 2024…

The report outlines three risk scenarios based on historical events since the 1970s, depending on the disruption to oil supplies.

1. In a minor disruption scenario, global oil supply could decrease by 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day, similar to the Libyan civil war in 2011. Oil prices are projected to increase by 3% to 13% compared to the current quarter, reaching $93 to $102 per barrel.

2. If a medium disruption happens, the global oil supply could decrease by 3 to 5 million barrels per day, similar to the Iraq war's impact in 2003. Oil prices could increase by 21% to 35%, reaching $109 to $121 per barrel.

3. A significant disruption, similar to the Arab oil embargo in 1973, would reduce the global oil supply by 6 to 8 million barrels per day. Consequently, prices are expected to increase by 56% to 75%, reaching $140 to $157 per barrel.

In conclusion, although the conflict's impact on global commodity markets has been limited, policymakers must remain vigilant. Any further escalation could significantly impact increased oil prices and worsen food insecurity.

Image: by Germán & Co

Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

Introduction of the Middle East Conflict on Oil Markets:

If Shakespeare were to momentarily shift his focus from contemplating profound existential dilemmas, such as the timeless "To be or not to be" or the more contemporary quandary of "Married or unmarried," he might discover that the intricate complexities of the enduring Middle East conflict appear surprisingly less daunting than the decision to say "I do" or not.

The report outlines three risk scenarios based on historical events since the 1970s, depending on the disruption to oil supplies.

*WB Press Release on October 30, 2023. “Conflict in Middle East Could Bring ‘Dual Shock’ to Global Commodity Markets

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/26/commodity-markets-outlook-october-2023-press-release

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

`A vital snapshot of today's global landscape...`
`In July 2000, U.S. President Bill Clinton, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and Chairman of the Palestinian Authority Yasser Arafat convened at Camp David for a summit aimed at addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The summit, held from July 11 to July 25, focused on fostering mutual understanding and devising a framework for peace negotiations.`
`Deepened lost in diplomacy...`
`https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24`

By Germán & Co in Karlstad, Sweden on April 15, 2024

In the vast theatre of life, political leaders of yesterday and today – as actors in an eternal drama – face a momentous decision: pomposity or perfidy?

…Two masks, two roles, two destinations.

Pomposity, like a marble throne in the Roman Forum, rises majestically. He wears the cloak of self-importance, his bearing solemn. The pompous orator declaims his words in marble halls but is often substanceless. He is the leader who confuses grandiosity with gravity and rejoices in ceremony. But beware, because underneath the façade lies emptiness, a hollow vanity that mocks even the gods. And then there's betrayal, that shadowy figure that lurks in the corridors of power. He wears a mask of intrigue, his actions whispered in dark chambers. Disappointedly, he dances; his footsteps leave no trace on the marble floors. It's the puppeteer, pulling invisible strings, orchestrating chaos with an evil grin. Perfidy thrives on secrecy, its motives veiled, and its actions calculated. It's the dagger hidden in the folds of a senator's robe, ready to strike when you least expect it. But beware, its darkness consumes everything: morality, honour, and the very fabric of society.

It is widely recognized that leaders may deliberately provoke conflict as a strategic approach to maintain control when they risk losing power. "This phenomenon is complex and fascinating, deserving further comprehensive investigation."

The combination of Saddam Hussein (Ṣaddām Ḥusayn al-Tikrītī, was born on April 28, 1937, in the village of Al-ʿAwjah, Iraq) and Benjamin Netanyahu's (“Bibi”, born on October 21, 1949, in Tel Aviv, Israel), (The Israeli Prime Minister's nickname 'Bibi' has an ironic issue as it can be easily confused with the Arabic term 'Habibi', which means 'my beloved' or 'my dear one'.), unique attributes and behaviours and ISIS's impact on regional dynamics makes for an intriguing phenomenon that deserves further analysis.

Saddam Hussein, the former president of Iraq, made dangerous decisions based on his skewed perception of reality. He was known for his erratic behavior, which was further exacerbated by the fall of the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (The Shah, was born on October 26, 1919, in Tehran, Sublime State of Persia), in January 1979 and the emergence of Imam Ruhollah Khomeini (born in Khomeyn, in what is now Iran’s Markazi province). These events were perceived by Hussein as a significant threat to the Arab world, worsening his already distorted mindset.

Under authoritarian governance, Saddam Hussein exercised substantial control over Iraq, suppressing dissent and centralizing power through tactics of intimidation and coercion. His administration was marked by violations of human rights, particularly the notorious Anfal campaign that specifically targeted the Kurdish community.

Additionally, Sheikh Fahad of Kuwait (Sheikh Fahad Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, born on August 10, 1945 in Kuwait), engaged in oil price manipulation (dumping), which exacerbated Hussein's erratic behavior. Hussein perceived this as a direct threat to Iraq's struggling economy and regional stability. Consequently, his sense of instability was amplified, resulting in increasingly unpredictable decision-making.

Saddam Hussein's interactions with the United States were complex and evolved significantly over time. In the 1980s, the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq as allies during the Iran–Iraq War. This support was primarily driven by geopolitical motives and the goal of countering Iran's influence.

During this time, the U.S. offered Iraqi military aid, intelligence, and diplomatic backing. In the 1990s, the United States changed its approach towards Saddam Hussein.

After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the U.S. led a coalition to liberate Kuwait and imposed economic sanctions on Iraq. The U.S. aimed to contain Saddam's regime to reduce its regional impact, resulting in escalating tensions and a strained relationship.

In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq, alleging that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). The invasion led to the downfall of Saddam's regime. Diplomatic relations were restored only after Saddam's removal, leading to the establishment of a pro-American government in Iraq.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, is recognized as an astute politician renowned for his strategic political manoeuvres. He skillfully navigated the complexities of Israeli political dynamics by establishing coalitions and forming strategic alliances to uphold his authority. Netanyahu's incoming hard-line government has prioritized the expansion of the West Bank settlement. The coalition agreement includes plans to legalize dozens of illegally built outposts and even annex the occupied territory. This controversial move is part of a coalition deal with ultranationalist allies. However, most of the international community considers these settlements illegal and an obstacle to peace with the Palestinians.

The United States has already cautioned against actions that could undermine hopes for an independent Palestinian state. The situation remains highly charged and could strain relations with Israel's closest allies abroad.

The Prime Minister of Israel's close connection to the former Trump administration (and his exaltation to the Gods, hoping that the former president Donald Trump (Donald John Trump was born on June 14, 1946, at Jamaica Hospital in Queens, New York City) would be re-elected in November's elections is also disputed. Netanyahu has employed survival strategies like those used by Hussein. He has effectively managed allegations of corruption, maintained a strong support network, and skilfully tackled security issues while facing a degree of divisiveness and polarization. Specific individuals view him as a strong leader who prioritizes Israel's security, while others critique his policies and handling of domestic matters. Amid all the chaos, Europe is not taking any chances and is swiftly constructing an anti-aircraft shield for diplomatic security. Why, you ask? Well, it's all in preparation for the potential comeback of the one and only former President Donald Trump this coming November. Europe is not about to let any surprises catch them off guard!

The resurgence of ISIS has significantly influenced the dynamics in the Middle East. The group's brutal tactics, territorial acquisitions, and recruitment efforts attracted international attention. ISIS exploited preexisting conflicts, such as the Syrian civil war and sectarian tensions, to incite disorder and violence. ISIS presented a significant challenge to the established state boundaries, resulting in destabilization within Iraq, Syria, and adjacent nations. The ideology transcended national borders, attracting foreign combatants, and posing a threat to global security.

Finally, the potential risk of a global oil market disruption, such as the recent war in Ukraine, has not yet materialized. However, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine, which caused oil prices to skyrocket to over $110 per barrel.

The analysis concludes that the wanderer, who was suffering from cancer and had no place to stay, responded ambiguously to the question posed to the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This was during an interview with journalist David Frost (David Paradine Frost, born on April 7, 1939, in Tenterden, Kent, England) in 1979 for BBC (this interview is considered one of the most important in journalism history) on Contadora Island in Panama. Frost asked the Shah how many people disappeared during his reign, but the answer remains to be discovered. This situation is a clear reminder that one should not take unnecessary risks, which can lead to undesirable consequences. Playing with fire always leaves one burned.

Bibliography:

The Camp David Summit in the USA, which took place from July 11 to 25, 2000.

David Frost's face-to-face interview with the Shah of Iran on Contadora Island, Panama, in 1979.

World Bank Press Release, October 30, 2023: "Conflict in Middle East May Trigger 'Dual Shock' in Global Commodity Markets"

Deepened lost in diplomacy... germantoroghio.com, august, 2023.

"The Achilles Trap" by Steve Coll, Pulitzer Prize winner, explores events leading to the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. Published 02/27/2024, the book offers a detailed analysis.

The intention to incite a global conflict should be clearly evident... Germantoroghio.com, March 2024.

Europe faces a tough test: Can it confront Vladimir Putin without help from the US? POLITICO European Union article from January 2024.

Isis Returns, as reported by Le Monde Diplomatique in March 2024.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 4/5/24 Germán & Co 4/5/24

"Natural Gas and Renewable Energy: Europe's Balancing Act"

Notes from the editor:

Europe is confronted with a complex energy management dilemma as it depends on a single fuel supply, particularly in the case of natural gas, which has been used as a geopolitical tool by some countries. This situation is exemplified by historical conflicts such as the Suez Canal Crisis, the oil crisis of the 1970s, and the oil embargo enforced by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), which led to a increase in global oil prices. Russia's military intervention in Ukraine has been a contributing factor to the decrease in natural gas imports to Europe. Furthermore, the resurgence of ISIS, backed by a significant nation, has negatively impacted other economies. As a result, many nations are seeking to balance their energy requirements without becoming overly reliant on a single fuel source. In the case of Europe in the recent past, there was an excessive dependence on Russia for natural gas supply(1); now, this reliance has shifted to the United States. Reliance again on a single fuel supplier could make countries vulnerable to price fluctuations and source chain disruptions (Nord Stream, 7.5 billion euros, blast in seconds (2)). Therefore, it is important to avoid such dangerous dilemmas. Finally, the international community recognises the importance of technology in addressing energy security, environmental protection, economic growth, and clean energy needs, but the integration of cutting-edge renewable energy technologies has been a challenging and slow bureaucratic process, which doesn’t help in diversifying the energy matrix.

Following the insightful post from POLITICO EU regarding these matters...

Image: Artwork by Germán & Co

Historically, relying on a single strategic fuel supplier has been a double-edged sword.

Europe’s new energy risk: Trading Russia for America

The EU replaced Russian energy with U.S. supplies after Moscow launched a war. Now people are wondering: Is Europe too dependent on America?

POLITICO by Gabriel Gavin, published on March 3, 2024.

“As for all hypothetical scenarios, we will not be speculating on U.S. potential cuts in production or supply to the EU,” a senior EU official told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss the situation.
“EU and U.S. officials met in Washington last month for talks as part of the EU-US Energy Council, but the issue of LNG permits wasn’t on the official agenda or a broader list of topics shared with POLITICO ahead of the tête-à-tête.
“Then there’s the Donald Trump factor. If Trump returns to the White House he is almost certain to push for a massive fossil fuel expansion while riding roughshod over conventional climate science.
“While an American LNG production boom would likely drive down prices, particularly for the short-term contracts the EU favors, it would raise uncomfortable questions about whether European nations are enabling an anti-environmental crusade. It would also raise the specter that the continent had taken control of its energy markets away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and given it to President Trump.

Dear friends:

Happy Sabbat! As we part ways with a pledge to reunite in August, echoing Gabriel García Márquez's enigmatic posthumous literature, let us welcome the ambiguity of our conflict-ridden world. Today, the British newspaper "Daily Express" discusses how authorities are adopting Scandinavia's measures in preparation for a potential global conflict. On this special day, may it bring you joy, opportunities for self-reflection, and a sense of positive energy. Whether spent in tranquil solitude or in the company of loved ones, may the time be abundant with love and blessings.

For the esteemed "Le Monde Diplomatique," the world of the month of April is viewed in this manner:

“…conflicts through the lens of history: India election special, New Delhi is not Beijing; has India become the world’s factory? Narendra Modi’s India oiled by crony capitalism; is India now a democracy in name only? agriculture once more in crisis; Ukraine, Macron’s poodles the new dogs of war; Moscow wants no less than surrender; Israeli far right’s Biblical pretexts for mass expulsion; Zionist movement’s cooption of Judaism; US, guns still a way of life across political divide; northern Mali, Tuaregs are fighting an existential war; the fat profits in international arbitration; empathy, our new panacea…

Notes from the editor:

(1) The Riddle Of Non-Nord Stream Return… https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/blog-post-title-four-9r7yf-et66s-bcdgl-y5yy5-hlk5r-zxrcm-ac5jt-9mpkh

(2) Che cosa ! Nord Stream, 7.5 billion euros, blast in seconds… https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24-dxjl5-h6lly-jx95h-dalp4-6zlrk-fmre6-7zbng-c3ges-k94st

Following the insightful post from POLITICO EU regarding these matters...

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`President Joe Biden has instituted a temporary halt on the approval of new LNG projects. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.`

Europe’s new energy risk: Trading Russia for America

The EU replaced Russian energy with U.S. supplies after Moscow launched a war. Now people are wondering: Is Europe too dependent on America?

POLITICO by Gabriel Gavin, published on March 3, 2024.

On cloudy days, from his house John Beard can see the fireballs lighting up the dark sky, flares from the distant fossil fuel plants where he once made his living as a technician.

The fiery discharge of excess gas is a constant reminder of the industry that dominates life for Beard and his neighbors in Port Arthur, Texas, where one in four people live in poverty and the rate of cancer, heart and lung disease is well above the state average. Many locals blame the situation on the dark chimneys dotting the horizon.

"Texas is known for two things: barbecue and gas," Beard said. "There's money being made and the people making the money don't look like me and they don't live in Port Arthur."

The Lone Star State is America's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of which gets shipped to Europe. Worryingly for the EU, it's also ground zero for a growing protest movement pressuring Washington to wind down those exports to save the climate.

Ahead of a tight election in November, U.S. President Joe Biden has ordered a temporary pause on approving new LNG projects, effectively freezing the country's expansion of export infrastructure in a nod to climate-conscious voters.

While green groups have praised the decision, Europeans are growing anxious about supply squeezes and price hikes. The EU bet big on U.S. LNG in 2022 after shunning the cheap Russian energy it had relied on for years. It spent billions on LNG infrastructure, and signed scores of new contracts.

Those decisions are now being called into question: Did Europe trade its misbegotten reliance on Russia for a short-sighted reliance on America? The U.S. currently provides Europe with nearly 50 percent of its LNG — up from roughly a quarter before the war — and LNG has overtaken pipeline gas as the most important source of supplies.

The Lone Star State is America's largest producer of liquefied natural gas. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

“Having experienced the dangers of risking security of energy supply by depending too much on one source, Europe must learn from its past mistakes and avoid becoming over-reliant on the U.S.,” warned Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, in a recent report that found Europe's LNG demand is still growing.

Across the pond…

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, the EU and the U.K. have raced to replace Moscow's gas — largely delivered via pipelines across the continent — with seaborne shipments of American LNG.

Today it's places like Port Arthur rather than Siberia that heat Europe's homes and power-heavy industries, a switch that prevented catastrophe as Russia turned off the taps.

THE EU'S NEW LNG DEPENDENCE…

U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to EU countries*, in cubic feet per month.

`*Belgium, Croatia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain.`
`SOURCE: U.S. Energy Information Administration By Giovanna Coi`

That's why Biden's decision to potentially decrease LNG output has rattled European industry, even if the pause — if prolonged after the election — would only be felt in 10 to 15 years. The EuroGas trade association wrote the White House urging a reversal, warning of a return to "record high prices caused by the Russian supply drop.”

After the war began, European firms rapidly expanded their port infrastructure and built regasification plants — which turn liquid gas back into a usable form — planning for long-term imports from the U.S.

Companies also signed a glut of short-term LNG contracts with U.S. firms — providing flexibility as renewable energy sources proliferate but making it harder to ensure low prices and know where your energy will come from in five or 10 years.

"We are not optimistic, but I would say compared to where we were two years ago we are at least in a neutral state," said Torben Brabo, president of Gas Infrastructure Europe, which represents operators and industry across the continent. "If we want to have reliable supplies from the U.S., we need to accept some mid-term contracts."

At a major oil and gas conference in Houston last month, energy company bosses including ExxonMobil Vice President John Ardill, whose firm wants to begin drilling for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, warned Europe that it must become more self-sufficient.

"Redirecting liquefied natural gas and building [regasification] terminals are not long-term solutions," he said.

Getting rid of gas?

Faced with calls for the energy sector to secure more U.S. LNG and step up local natural gas production, European climate campaigners say they are skeptical of whether either option is really needed.

"We see the industry outcry but we think it's much overdone," said Esther Bollendorff, a gas policy expert at Climate Action Network Europe.

Bollendorff said Europe had undergone a “tectonic shift” since Russia’s invasion, noting the EU’s average gas consumption has dropped by about a fifth. Meanwhile, she added, the EU is steadily growing its renewable power and aims to cut an additional 30 percent off its gas consumption by 2030.

"But since 2022 we've got eight new or expanded LNG terminals coming online,” she said. “There's an over-capacity and it's likely they will be stranded assets because the utilization rate of existing capacity today is less than 60 percent.”

According to Nicolás González Casares, an MEP from Spain's governing Socialist party — which has overseen the construction of significant new LNG infrastructure — and a member of the European Parliament's energy committee, the expansion was "not a mistake" because "we needed this energy and our dependence on Russia was so strong that we cannot say no to LNG during these two years."

However, he added, the priority should now be replacing gas with renewables: "We don't want really this business. Our business is to have clean energy here in Spain and also in Europe."

Nicolás González Casares, an MEP from Spain's governing Socialist party says the priority should now be replacing gas with renewables.

Industry representatives caution against leaving fossil fuels behind too quickly. They insist that even under the EU’s gas reduction plans, there is still a need to secure extra LNG supplies, particularly given the pressure to divest from Moscow’s exports.

Nareg Terzian, a spokesperson for the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers, pointed to a “gap between projected demand” under the EU’s current forecasts “and the actual supply that we know of, if you take out Russia.”

“That’s the supply gap to be bridged,” Terzian argued. “And so it is extremely important that Europe be able to secure the necessary volumes from the U.S.”

The numbers paint a mixed picture. European gas demand hit a record low for the decade last year, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. But the drop was driven mainly by three countries: Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. Overall, Europe’s LNG demand won’t peak until 2025, the institute concluded.

Meanwhile, the gas industry argues that extra LNG investments don’t limit Europe to U.S. supplies. It could also get LNG from producers like Norway and Qatar, said Brabo, the Gas Infrastructure Europe chief. Down the line, the ports could even be repurposed for less carbon-intensive fuels, he added.

“It can be used for biomethane and green hydrogen immediately,” Brabo said.

Change in management..

For now, the EU is staying out of the fray.

“As for all hypothetical scenarios, we will not be speculating on U.S. potential cuts in production or supply to the EU,” a senior EU official told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss the situation.

EU and U.S. officials met in Washington last month for talks as part of the EU-US Energy Council, but the issue of LNG permits wasn’t on the official agenda or a broader list of topics shared with POLITICO ahead of the tête-à-tête.

Then there’s the Donald Trump factor. If Trump returns to the White House he is almost certain to push for a massive fossil fuel expansion while riding roughshod over conventional climate science.

While an American LNG production boom would likely drive down prices, particularly for the short-term contracts the EU favors, it would raise uncomfortable questions about whether European nations are enabling an anti-environmental crusade. It would also raise the specter that the continent had taken control of its energy markets away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and given it to President Trump.

"I would say to the Europeans, they need to understand that there's a very, very human cost for this gas," said Beard, the Port Arthur resident, who can list off the top of his head the names of neighbors with chronic diseases like cancer and lung conditions.
"Enough is enough. We refuse to be sacrificed any further."

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 4/1/24 Germán & Co 4/1/24

AES Dominicana… “Let us hope for abundant electrical rainfall…

Introduction to the Voyage of Existence for the Better...

Imagine a world where the skies gift us with electrical rainfall, a phenomenon where energy cascades from the heavens, promising to power our dreams and innovations. This is not just a flight of fancy but a vision of a future where renewable energy is as natural and abundant as the rain that nourishes our earth. The exciting possibilities of harnessing the power of electrical storms, turning the might of nature into a sustainable source that could light up our cities and homes and spark a revolution in how we think about and use energy. Join us on this electrifying journey as we delve into the potential of electrical rainfall and its role in powering a brighter, cleaner future.

“Ojalá Que Llueva Café” is a song by Dominican singer-songwriter Juan Luis Guerra about the desire for a better life in the countryside. The song focuses on the metaphor of rain, specifically the rain of coffee, which alleviates the drought and hardships of rural life and provides abundant food and joy. Guerra’s lyrics depict a heavenly landscape of clouds seeding the fields with coffee and other crops such as cassava, tea, white cheese, watercress, honey, wheat, and a variety of trees. It describes people reaping the land’s bounty, celebrating, and singing together. The song is an ode to the impoverished rural areas of the Caribbean, where most of Guerra’s music is rooted, and an anthem of hope for a better life. Besides, access to electricity is vital. Indeed, electricity is no longer a luxury; rather, it’s a fundamental right. It powers our homes, fuels progress, and connects us globally. Just as coffee rain provides sustenance, electricity brings light, warmth, and opportunity. It’s a lifeline for rural communities, bridging gaps and enabling growth.

Image: All artwork right by Germán & Co

`PUERTO PRINCIPE/HAITI - OCTOBER 13, 2010: Singer Juan Luis Guerra speaks with journalists during the ceremony to begin the construction of a hospital for the victims of 2010 Haiti earthquake. All artwork rights are owned by Germán & Co. Any unauthorized publication is strictly prohibited.`

Introduction to the Voyage of Existence for the Better...

Image…

“Imagine a world where the skies gift us with electrical rainfall, a phenomenon where energy cascades from the heavens, promising to power our dreams and innovations. This is not just a flight of fancy, but a vision of a future where renewable energy is as natural and abundant as the rain that nourishes our earth. In this blog entry, we'll explore the exciting possibilities of harnessing the power of electrical storms, turning the might of nature into a sustainable source that could light up our cities and homes, and spark a revolution in how we think about and use energy. Join us on this electrifying journey as we delve into the potential of electrical rainfall and its role in powering a brighter, cleaner future. Imagine if we could store all this wonderful energy...

“Ojalá Que Llueva Café” is a song by Dominican singer-songwriter Juan Luis Guerra about the desire for a better life in the countryside. The song focuses on the metaphor of rain, specifically the rain of coffee, which alleviates the drought and hardships of rural life and provides abundant food and joy. Guerra’s lyrics depict a heavenly landscape of clouds seeding the fields with coffee and other crops such as cassava, tea, white cheese, watercress, honey, wheat, and a variety of trees. It describes people reaping the land’s bounty, celebrating, and singing together. The song is an ode to the impoverished rural areas of the Caribbean, where most of Guerra’s music is rooted, and an anthem of hope for a better life. Besides, access to electricity is vital. Indeed, electricity is no longer a luxury; rather, it’s a fundamental right. It powers our homes, fuels progress, and connects us globally. Just as coffee rain provides sustenance, electricity brings light, warmth, and opportunity. It’s a lifeline for rural communities, bridging gaps and enabling growth.

`Image: Dominican Power Partner (DPP) in Los Minas, Santo Domingo, courtesy of AES Dominicana.`

Big shoutout to AES Dominicana for their amazing support and unwavering commitment...

During a rainy season day in 1990, the power of the Caribbean Sea was tangible along the Santo Domingo boardwalk, where it relentlessly battered against George Washington Avenue. The darkness enveloped the city entirely, but amidst it, it was possible to discern the lively chords of merengue resonating from afar. The illumination source emanated from a neighbouring grocery store, which relied on a compact generator to power its lights. The volume of the music was so pronounced that it created the illusion of a live performance, overpowering even the sound of the crashing waves from the sea. As the music persisted, a new song started playing: a renowned bachata by Juan Luis Guerra and his 4.40, featuring the globally recognised lyrics: "I hope it will rain coffee." The noise maintained its previous volume, serving as a welcome diversion from the stifling heat that surrounded the island. No one could resist swaying their hips to the beat of the music, almost as if it were a necessary response to the scorching heat. A scream can be heard in the distance, —coño— Pancho... The light is coming, as if the dear friend were not seeing the miracle that is life…

Experiencing the phenomenon of —alumbrones— (the light coming), it may be Kafkaesque, but it is not. It is the production of electrical energy in the country. It was critical, if not non-existent, because of its precariousness. It’s because it evoked a profound sense of exhilaration and joy in individuals. When the electric light peeked out miserably. While the light was fleeting, it undoubtedly provided an unforgettable balsam bath. Thus, the scarcity of much-needed electricity in the Dominican Republic was evident. In other words, that was the dark reality of La Hispaniola. With good intentions and hard work, everything can change.

"A single image can communicate a multitude of messages. In this specific instance, the narrative resonates with a vast amount of light energy. In 1990, the country had an installed capacity of 1460 MW, which served a population of 7,118,000...

AES Dominicana has made a significant contribution to improving the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system by using a variety of fuels and renewable energy sources.

Since its inception in the region, AES has always been committed to making a significant contribution to the energy sector by prioritising the implementation of effective and sustainable changes that benefit all stakeholders.

In 2000, AES demonstrated its commitment to the sustainable growth of the Dominican Republic by establishing AES Andrés. The project included a 319 MW combined-cycle power plant, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal and a gas pipeline connecting to the DPP plant.

In the same year, AES also acquired the assets of GENER and a 25% stake in the ITABO S.A. power plant. In the following years, AES maintained its investment in the country by undertaking projects such as the conversion of gas turbines to natural gas and the acquisition of additional shares in ITABO S.A. These initiatives by AES have significantly improved the country's strategic energy position and reduced its dependence on oil derivatives for electricity generation.

In the 2010s, AES initiated the construction of AES Andrés 2000, a combined-cycle power plant that represents a significant advancement in the country's energy infrastructure. The company also launched the innovative Closing the Loop project at DPP. This initiative involved the installation of a steam turbine to improve operational efficiency and support environmental and social progress.

In 2017, AES successfully completed the Closing the Loop initiative at DPP, resulting in a significant increase in capacity and efficiency at the plant. This progress contributed significantly to the country's environmental and social development goals. AES Dominicana is proud of its remarkable journey and looks forward to continuing its efforts to promote sustainable energy solutions for a brighter future.

The Bayasol project is a 50 MW solar power plant located in Matanzas, Dominican Republic, 12 km west of Bani in the province of Peravia. The project covers an area of 947,172.73 m2 and aims to produce clean electricity from renewable sources. The annual electricity production is 107,948 MWh, which is transmitted through underground medium voltage circuits insulated at 34.5 kV to a 138 kV substation. This substation houses a 60 MVA transformer that supplies energy to the Dominican Republic's National Interconnected Electric System (SENI). By using solar energy to generate electricity, the project reduces dependence on fossil fuel-based energy production. The project includes solar power plants, substations, the national grid and connected power plants.

Further details are subject to revision. The project will use solar energy to generate clean, renewable electricity, replacing electricity from fossil fuel-fired plants connected to the grid. The project will result in an annual greenhouse gas emission reduction of 64,287 tCO2e and 642,866 tCO2e over the ten-year crediting period. Image courtesy of AES Dominicana.

`The 50-MW Agua Clara wind farm developed by Inkia Energy Ltd in the Dominican Republic started operations this Tuesday, the office of the country’s president Danilo Medina announced.`
`The Agua Clara project, located on a 120-hectare (296.5 acres) site, required an investment of USD 103 million (EUR 91.3m). The farm is equipped with 25 wind turbines of 2 MW each, capable of producing an estimated 170 GWh per year.`

AES Dominicana Foundation…

AES Dominicana's focus is on the electrical sector, and its goal is to become integrated with the society of the Dominican Republic.

Since 2007, the AES Dominicana Foundation has accompanied the Dominican Republic in its sustainable development goals, addressing environmental, educational, health, entrepreneurial, and cultural needs as part of the orange economy.

In addition, the foundation has responded to national needs in emergencies and natural disasters. Haiti was struck by a catastrophic earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 on the Richter scale in 2010, resulting in the deaths of over 200,000 people and the displacement of more than two million. The Foundation was among the first international organisations to provide humanitarian aid, including medical assistance. Following the initial emergency aid, efforts were focused on restoring the country's fragile electrical system. The Foundation's solidarity led to its nomination as a finalist for the Platts Awards that year.

From the beginning, the Foundation has supported cultural and artistic initiatives within the orange economy, a sector endorsed by the Dominican Republic to cultivate talent. Since its establishment, the Foundation has played a significant role as a primary sponsor of the Trampoline Children's Museum in the Colonial City of Santo Domingo.

To date, the AES Dominicana Foundation, in partnership with Berklee College of Music, Itabo Electricity Generating Company, the Ministry of Culture, and the National Conservatory of Music, has awarded a total of forty scholarships for music studies at the prestigious Berklee College of Music in Boston. This incredible opportunity is key to significant personal growth for recipients.

By promoting art and culture, AES Dominicana is actively fuelling the growth of the creative economy in the Dominican Republic and nurturing the development of gifted individuals.

“Success that is not planned is merely a stroke of luck,” noted Edwin De los Santos. The pairing of AES Dominicana and Berklee creates a harmonious tune for the Dominican Republic.

The AES Dominicana family is experiencing growth…

Since 2014, AES has implemented a long-term strategy to incorporate local partners to support the expansion and strengthening of the business and accompany the growth of the energy industry with a sustainability vision, both in the Dominican Republic and Panama.

"We derive immense value from partnering with strong local players who provide valuable support as we transition our businesses in both markets," said Juan Ignacio Rubiolo, executive vice president and president of AES's Energy Infrastructure Strategic Business Unit.

The first step began on September 3, 2014, when AES Dominicana forged a strategic partnership with local entities Estrella and Linda in New York. Estrella and Linda acquired a minority stake in the energy company.

Integrating Estrella and Linda into the AES Dominicana family is a strategic move and a powerful symbol of our shared vision and commitment. This alliance is not just about improving the electricity sector in the Dominican Republic but about ushering in a new era of national development across various productive industries.

The earnest dedication of the signatories to contribute to the resolution offers a promising perspective for the future of the energy sector in the Dominican Republic.

The collaboration between Estrella and Linda is a pivotal element of AES's comprehensive long-term growth strategy in the Dominican Republic. This strategy, presented to the Dominican Republic authorities in December 2012, is a testament to our steadfast commitment to the country's energy sector. It is a commitment to a secure and prosperous future for the Dominican Republic, underscoring our unwavering presence.

The signing ceremony was graced by key figures in the energy sector, including Andrés Gluski, the Global President and CEO of AES Corporation; Edwin De Los Santos, the President of AES Dominicana; Manuel Estrella, the President of Estrella; and Felix García, the President of Grupo Linda, who served as delegates for the new collaborators, symbolizing the unity and shared vision of all parties involved.

The AES Dominicana group's integration of ENANDON and API Popular marks not an end, but the commencement of a new and promising chapter in its continuing saga of success.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 3/29/24 Germán & Co 3/29/24

The Coming Electricity Crisis…

Amidst ongoing political discussions about potential conflicts in developing nations, it is disheartening to see how our greed and rigidity have clouded our judgment and reduced our compassion for one another. Recently, a popular blog published an article titled "How likely is a global power outage?" discussing the increasing demand for electricity and the energy supply shortage in the United States. This article has sparked a significant debate among Energy Central experts and drawn attention to the issue. The editorial board of WSJ also published an article addressing the crisis in the electricity sector, further emphasizing the importance of the topic. The risk of a widespread blackout is growing as pressure on the power grid mounts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Washington Post have issued warnings about the surge in global electricity consumption, urging the market to adapt to accommodate renewable energy sources. Regulatory frameworks must be updated to meet rising energy demand and facilitate the transition to new technologies. Balancing sustainability, reliability, and affordability is critical to a thriving market transition.

Image: Artwork by Germán & Co

Who is Germán & Co?

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

Notes from the editor:

On this Good Friday, amidst the ongoing discussions among politicians regarding a possible conflict in developing nations, it is profoundly disheartening to observe how our avarice and inflexibility have obscured our discernment and diminished our empathy towards each other.

On the 13th of this month, a popular blog published a thought-provoking article titled "How imminent is a worldwide electrical outage?" The article highlighted the growing demand for power and the concerning deficit in energy supply faced by the United States. In just a short time, the post has been read over 120,000 times and has sparked an enormous debate on Energy Central, with many experts weighing in with their opinions and sharing interesting facts on the topic.

This article has also led to other debates and discussions on the issue, further highlighting the importance of the subject. Today, the editorial board of WSJ published an article discussing the crisis in the electrical sector, adding to the ongoing conversation and bringing more attention to the matter.

The growing potential for a widespread blackout is becoming more alarming as the pressure on the power grid intensifies.

Many will claim this is madness; however, reality begs to differ.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a warning in their 2021 Electricity Market Report about a significant increase in global electricity consumption. This warning came eight months before the Soviet gas squeeze left Europe in a serious supply restriction crisis and caused severe damage to the economy. Last week, the Washington Post also issued a similar warning.

It is imperative that the market notice this warning and examine its requirements to provide the necessary adaptations to accommodate the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources. Regulatory frameworks must be updated and adjusted to the current surge in energy demand to facilitate a seamless transition to emerging technologies. Achieving a successful market transition requires a delicate balance between sustainability, reliability, and affordability.

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

“CERAWeek 2024 was a whirlwind of innovation, collaboration, and a renewed sense of urgency around the energy transition. I am excited to see the vision of the AES Corporation on the importance of Artificial Intelligence for the energy transition.
From AI-powered grids seamlessly integrating renewables to AI applications to optimizing energy storage and distribution, the innovation in how we work using AI will revolutionize the energy landscape.
Renewables' exponential growth will be the fuel of the future. Scaling green solutions to meet global energy demands will be pivotal, and I am extremely proud that in 2023, The AES Corporation doubled the green capacity constructed compared to 2022, completing 3.5 GW of renewable projects.
Artificial intelligence will enable us to accelerate the future and unlock the full potential of clean energy.
CERAWeek highlighted the importance of collaboration between governments, businesses, and innovators to accelerate progress; it was fabulous to meet with so many colleagues working to accelerate an energy transition, which encourages me that we are ready for a global response to the change of climate change.
Together, we will accelerate the energy future by harnessing the power of renewables and AI and leveraging the talent and dedication of the AES Corporation people, said Bernerd Da Santos, AES Executive Vice President—President of Global Renewables / Green Hydrogen and CEO of AES Clean Energy.

The looming threat of The Coming Electricity Crisis….

Artificial-intelligence data centers and climate rules are pushing the power grid to what could become a breaking point…

The Wall Street Journal's editorial team on March 28, 2024, adjusted by Germán & Co.

President Biden and the press keep raising alarms about a climate crisis that his policies can’t do much about. Yet in the meantime they’re ignoring how government climate policies are contributing to a looming electric-grid crisis that is more urgent and could be avoided.

For years about an electric-power shortage. And now grid regulators and utilities are ramping up warnings. Projections for U.S. electricity demand growth over the next five years have doubled from a year ago. The major culprits: New artificial-intelligence data centers, federally subsidized manufacturing plants, and the government-driven electric-vehicle transition.

***

Georgia Power recently increased 17-fold its winter power demand forecast by 2031, citing growth in new industries such as EV and battery factories. AEP Ohio says new data centers and Intel’s $20 billion planned chip plant will increase strain on the grid. Chip factories and data centers can consume 100 times more power than a typical industrial business.

PJM Interconnection, which operates the wholesale power market across 13 Midwest and Northeast states, this year doubled its 15-year annual forecast for demand growth. Its projected power demand in the region for 2029 has increased by about 10 gigawatts—about twice as much as New York City uses on a typical day.

Don’t expect the power to come from New York, which is marching toward a power shortage as it shuts down nuclear and fossil-fuel power in favor of wind and solar. A new Micron chip factory in upstate New York is expected to require as much power by the 2040s as the states of New Hampshire and Vermont combined.

Electricity demand to power data centers is projected to increase by 13% to 15% compounded annually through 2030. Yet a shortage of power is already delaying new data centers by two to six years, according to commercial-real estate firm CBRE Group. It is also driving Big Tech companies into the energy business.

Amazon this month struck a $650 million deal to buy a data center in Pennsylvania powered by an on-site 2.5 gigawatt nuclear plant.

Data centers—like manufacturing plants—require reliable power around the clock year-round, which wind and solar don’t provide. Businesses can’t afford to wait for batteries to become cost-effective. Building transmission lines to connect distant renewables to the grid typically takes 10 to 12 years.

Because of these challenges, Obama Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz last week predicted that utilities will ultimately have to rely more on gas, coal and nuclear plants to support surging demand. “We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years,” he said. No kidding.

The problem is that utilities are rapidly retiring fossil-fuel and nuclear plants. “We are subtracting dispatchable [fossil fuel] resources at a pace that’s not sustainable, and we can’t build dispatchable resources to replace the dispatchable resources we’re shutting down,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner Mark Christie warned this month.

About 20 gigawatts of fossil-fuel power are scheduled to retire over the next two years—enough to power 15 million homes—including a large natural-gas plant in Massachusetts that serves as a crucial source of electricity in cold snaps. PJM’s external market monitor last week warned that up to 30% of the region’s installed capacity is at risk of retiring by 2030.

Some plants are nearing the end of their useful life-spans, but an onslaught of costly regulation is the bigger cause. A soon-to-be-finalized Environmental Protection Agency rule would require natural-gas plants to install expensive and unproven carbon capture technology.

The PJM report cites “the role of states and the federal government in subsidizing resources and in environmental regulation.” It added: “The simple fact is that the sources of new capacity that could fully replace the retiring capacity have not been clearly identified.”

Meantime, the Inflation Reduction Act’s huge renewable subsidies make it harder for fossil-fuel and nuclear plants to compete in wholesale power markets. The cost of producing power from solar and wind is roughly the same as from natural gas. But IRA tax credits can offset up to 50% of the cost of renewable operators.

Baseload plants can’t turn a profit operating only when needed to back up renewables, so they are closing. This was the main culprit for Texas’s week-long power outage in February 2021 and the eastern U.S.’s rolling blackouts during Christmas 2022.

The media will discover this problem eventually, though not this year if it might call into question Mr. Biden’s climate agenda. Perhaps they’ll notice when more blackouts arrive.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 3/26/24 Germán & Co 3/26/24

Big Tech is obsessed with finding enough energy and leaves no stone unturned. Bill Gates from Microsoft and Andrés Gluski from AES are leading the way…

The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued by the United Nations highlights the urgent need for immediate and intensified action to combat the long-term impacts of climate change. As fossil fuels continue to dominate global energy consumption, the energy sector must take the lead in addressing this pressing issue.

The energy landscape is rapidly evolving, with renewable energy sources gaining momentum due to falling costs and growing investor interest, propelling the shift towards decarbonisation. Decarbonising the global energy system is a significant challenge in terms of scale and financial investment. It is essential to act quickly, and there is a clear sense of urgency to make a difference.

Although the energy sector has mainly concentrated on creating new low-carbon infrastructure, it is crucial to emphasise the use of advanced digital technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) as a critical enabler of the energy transition. The rapid implementation of AI technology on a larger scale is surpassing the integration of new hardware solutions.

Additionally, obtaining permits for establishing new renewable energy capacity can be a cumbersome and time-consuming process, which poses a barrier to transitioning towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly energy production system. Simplifying the permit acquisition process is crucial to smoothing the path for this transition.

Image: Artwork by Germán & Co

Who is Germán & Co?

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

Tuesday thoughts at dawn…

A recent IPCC report highlights the urgency for immediate and intensified efforts to prevent severe long-term consequences of climate change. As fossil fuels still account for over 80% of global energy consumption, the energy sector must play a central role in addressing this issue.

The energy system is transitioning, with renewable energy generation experiencing rapid growth. The trend towards decarbonization is driven by decreasing costs and increasing investor interest. Decarbonizing the global energy system is a substantial undertaking, both in terms of scale and cost. Given the limited time available, there is a sense of urgency to act.

Transition efforts within the energy sector have predominantly focused on hardware, specifically the development of new low-carbon infrastructure to replace existing carbon-intensive systems. Limited attention and resources have been directed towards advanced digital technologies, specifically artificial intelligence (AI), which can serve as a crucial facilitator for the energy transition. The rapid adoption of this potent technology at larger scales surpasses the pace of integrating new hardware solutions.

Finally, acquiring the necessary permits for establishing new renewable capacity can be a prolonged and convoluted bureaucratic process, which can hinder this shift towards a more sustainable and eco-friendly energy production system. It is important to streamline the permit acquisition process to facilitate this transition.

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Power needs, natural gas, and AI were the main topics of discussion at the CERAWeek debate.

From CERAweek BY CAT CLIFFORD AND AMENA H. SAIYID, SENIOR SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENTS, WASHINGTON D.C., MARCH 25, 2024.

The energy transition will occur at varying rates worldwide and will be further complicated by the growing demand for electricity from power-hungry data centres and increasing electrification.

Cheap and readily available natural gas will continue to be a critical bridge fuel for the foreseeable future until lower carbon technologies are scaled up and prices come down.

These were among the top takeaways from the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, hosted by S&P Global. The event, primarily dominated by fossil-fuel producers, has evolved to embrace cleaner energy.

The debate among the thousands gathered at the conference, considered the largest of its kind in the world, was driven by the tension between energy security, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and clean energy, whose commercialization aims to stave off the worsening impacts of climate change.

Highlights from Houston:

include the prevalence of AI at the conference, with discussions on both its opportunities and potential costs. Andrés Gluski, the CEO of The AES Corporation, a global renewable developer, suggested changing the company's name from AES to AIS due to the high demand for electricity to power energy-hungry data centres that drive artificial intelligence. Gluski also emphasised the operational efficiencies that AI can bring to AES.

"I am excited about AI because I believe it will make us more efficient, not only in operations but also in development - identifying the optimal locations for data centres and renewables," stated Gluski.

The AI boom is fueling an insatiable appetite for electricity, which is creating risks to the grid and the transition to cleaner energy sources…

The Wall Street Journal by Katherine Blunt and Jennifer Hiller, March 24, 2024, editions by Germán & Co.

HOUSTON—Every March, thousands of executives take over a downtown hotel here to reach oil and gas deals and haggle over plans to tackle climate change. This year, the dominant theme of the energy industry’s flagship conference was a new one: artificial intelligence.

Tech companies roamed the hotel’s halls in search of utility executives and other power providers. More than 20 executives from Amazon and Microsoft spoke on panels. The inescapable topic—and the cause of equal parts anxiety and excitement—was AI’s insatiable appetite for electricity.

It isn’t clear just how much electricity will be required to power an exponential increase in data centers worldwide. But most everyone agrees the data centers needed to advance AI will require so much power they could strain the power grid and stymie the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Bill Vass, vice president of engineering at Amazon Web Services, said the world adds a new data center every three days. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates told the conference that electricity is the key input for deciding whether a data center will be profitable and that the amount of power AI will consume is staggering.

“You go, ‘Oh, my God, this is going to be incredible,’” said Gates.

Though there was no dispute at the conference, called CERAWeek by S&P Global, that AI requires massive amounts of electricity, what was less clear was where it is going to come from.

Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said the size of new and proposed data centers to power AI has some utilities stumped as to how they are going to bring enough generation capacity online at a time when wind and solar farms are becoming more challenging to build. He said utilities will have to lean more heavily on natural gas, coal and nuclear plants, and perhaps support the construction of new gas plants to help meet spikes in demand.

“We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years. You’re kind of stuck,” he said.

The complication is that companies don’t just want to add new power sources, but clean ones, too. Many tech companies and utilities have made commitments to dramatically reduce the carbon emissions they produce.

Dominion Energy, a utility company based in Richmond, Va., has seen a sharp uptick in electricity demand driven by a build-out of data centers in northern Virginia, which has long been home to a large concentration of such facilities. The company, which has set a goal to eliminate or offset its carbon emissions by 2050, expects to build at least one gas-fired power plant to support it.

“We’re going to be net-zero by 2050. We still absolutely believe that,” said CEO Robert Blue. “But the demand growth now makes that more complicated.”

After a long period of stagnant demand for electricity, utilities are dialing up forecasts by astonishing amounts. The five-year projection of U.S. electricity demand growth has doubled from a year ago, according to a report from consulting firm Grid Strategies.

The surge in AI-driven power demand comes as other factors converge to create new strain on the grid. A wave of manufacturing plants are being developed across the U.S., spurred by new tax policies under the Inflation Reduction Act, and many states are working to use more electric power for transportation, heat and heavy industry.

New data centers can be built faster than new power generation and there is already a supply crunch. Construction timelines for data centers have been extended by two to six years because of power-supply delays, according to commercial-real-estate services firm CBRE Group.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has set a goal to eliminate carbon emissions from the U.S. electricity sector by 2035. John Podesta, the president’s point person on implementing the Inflation Reduction Act, told reporters that burgeoning AI demands create new challenges in hitting that target, though federal models show it is still possible.

“We’re putting the accelerator down on developing those clean resources,” he said.

Still, utilities and tech companies are discussing the need for more fossil fuel to support demand. Toby Rice, CEO of giant U.S. natural-gas producer EQT, said tech firms building data centers are inquiring about buying gas from EQT. Rice said he got the same two questions at the conference: “How fast can you guys move? How much gas can we get?”

According to Rice, tech companies need reliable power, which renewable sources such as wind and solar can’t always provide because of the vagaries of weather. And large-scale nuclear facilities, only one of which is under construction in the U.S., have historically been expensive and time-consuming to build.

“Tech is not going to wait seven to 10 years to get this infrastructure built,” Rice said in an interview. “That leaves you with natural gas.”

Southern Company, a utility company serving customers in Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, last year made a significant revision to its power-demand forecast in Georgia, largely driven by the build-out of data centers and other industrial activity.

What solutions should big tech explore to meet the growing power needs of data centers? Join the conversation below.

The company now expects 6,600 megawatts of demand growth through the winter of 2030, 17 times greater than the previous forecast. Southern has proposed adding three new gas turbines at a power plant southwest of Atlanta.

“With this unprecedented demand, all resources have to be in the mix,” CEO Chris Womack said in an interview.

About a third of the world’s 8,000 data centers are in the U.S., but the build-out is a worldwide phenomenon. Globally, the International Energy Agency estimates that electricity consumption from data centers, AI and cryptocurrency could double by 2026.

A data center build-out is also under way in Japan and will test that country’s power resources, said Yukio Kani, CEO of JERA, Japan’s largest power provider.

“It’s a very hungry caterpillar,” said Kani.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 3/24/24 Germán & Co 3/24/24

Unleashing the colossal power of wind energy with the world's largest plane!

Notes from the editor:

Behold the Windrunner, a mammoth transport aircraft set to outsize any other military plane by a whopping 80 feet! This colossal beast stretches a jaw-dropping 356 feet in length, standing tall at 79 feet high - a true titan of the skies. Designed specifically to tackle the tricky challenge of ferrying massive wind turbine blades, this aerial giant is a logistical marvel. With a whopping 80-ton capacity, the Windrunner leaves even the mighty Boeing 747 in its wake, making it the ultimate choice for effortlessly handling oversized cargo with unmatched efficiency.

________________________________

Thoughts on a Sunday in Extinction...

In March, Le Monde Diplomatique underscored several concerns. The esteemed French publication, known for its foresight, announced the resurgence of ISIS, affirming that indeed, the group has returned.

“The US is not finding it easy to stop Houthi attacks off Yemen; what is behind Sudan’s long and bloody civil war? ISIS is back, and it is not a spent force; Arab states’ abandonment of the Palestinians; China, new power, old order; will Russia’s war in Ukraine make it more dependent on China? Ukraine’s Hungarian community is slowly disappearing; international law, once a set of ideas, is now a real force; Rezső Kasztner, the man who saved Jews from Auschwitz; foreign doctors fight for a fair deal in France; climate, can we adapt to +4°C?”

On January 28 this year, this blog published: “The intention to trigger a worldwide conflict should be readily apparent…

The apparent collaboration between Hamas and other nations has enabled the exchange of significant resources, information, and expertise. Hamas is widely considered the cause of Israel's third occupation of the region, sparking international discourse. Furthermore, Hamas has also been linked to the ongoing Suez Canal crisis, resulting in significant diplomatic tensions extending beyond the Middle East. Around 1 million barrels of crude oil, 1.4 million barrels of gasoline, and other refined products are transported daily from the Middle East and Asia to Europe through this canal. In the past three weeks, authorities from several European countries, including Sweden, Finland, and Norway, have expressed concerns and warnings about a potential conflict with Russia. Escalating regional tensions have prompted these nations to openly voice their grave concerns about the potential military conflict with their neighbouring country to the east."

Why did ISIS-K target Moscow?

Perhaps the answer lies in considering the profound impact that surprise attacks have had throughout history. One notable example is the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey, which serves as a vivid illustration of the strategic deception necessary to breach Troy's formidable defenses.

Similarly, the stunning victory achieved by Hannibal, leader of Carthage, over a more formidable Roman army in the Battle of Cannae in 206 BC shocked the ancient world and underscored the potency of surprise tactics. Moving forward in history, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 marked a pivotal turning point in World War II, showcasing the capacity of surprise assaults to reshape the course of conflict.

The tragic assault on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11th, 2001, and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic are stark reminders of the far-reaching consequences of unforeseen events, prompting societal shifts and unveiling deep-seated inequalities across the globe.

Finally, the jihadists mock President Vladomir Putin and urge him not to confuse their motives, while President Emmanuel Macron warns the Kremlin against entangling Ukraine in the aftermath of the terrorist attack.

Image: A rendering of the WindRunner aircraft. Designed by Radia, it would transport large wind turbine blades directly to wind farm sites. RADIA INC.

Who is Germán & Co?

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

Thoughts on a Sunday in Extinction...

“The US is not finding it easy to stop Houthi attacks off Yemen; what is behind Sudan’s long and bloody civil war? ISIS is back, and it is not a spent force; Arab states’ abandonment of the Palestinians; China, new power, old order; will Russia’s war in Ukraine make it more dependent on China? Ukraine’s Hungarian community is slowly disappearing; international law, once a set of ideas, is now a real force; Rezső Kasztner, the man who saved Jews from Auschwitz; foreign doctors fight for a fair deal in France; climate, can we adapt to +4°C?”

On January 28 this year, this blog published: “The intention to trigger a worldwide conflict should be readily apparent…

Why did ISIS-K target Moscow?

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

`"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...`

A rendering of the WindRunner aircraft. Designed by Radia, it would transport large wind turbine blades directly to wind farm sites. RADIA INC.

Radia, a unicorn startup, plans to use rocket science to overcome one of the wind power industry’s biggest hurdles with a giant cargo plane…

From an article in the Wall Street Journal authored by Jennifer Hiller and Brian McGill and published on March 13, 2024, as part of the editions curated by Germán & Co.

An aerospace engineer proposes a giant plane for renewable energy revolution….

Mark Lundstrom, a rocket scientist trained at MIT and a Rhodes scholar, has dedicated over seven years collaborating with an expert engineering team in the intricate design process of the Windrunner. This revolutionary aircraft, once finalized, is poised to set a new benchmark as the longest and hold the title for having the largest cargo volume of any plane known to date.

The Windrunner, an innovative transportation solution, is specifically designed to carry wind turbine blades of exceptional lengths, comparable to football fields. These extraordinary blades, known as some of the longest globally, are predominantly utilized in offshore wind projects, primarily due to the logistical challenges faced in transporting them for onshore installations. Extending the reach of these immense turbines to vast land areas has the potential to transform the landscape of the wind energy industry.

The industry has observed a decrease in new onshore projects within the United States, coupled with price fluctuations in offshore projects. Due to these circumstances, land-based wind power installations are anticipated to showcase blade tips towering around 300 feet higher than the present average, equivalent to stacking the U.S. Capitol with the Washington Monument. These innovative projects hold the promise of producing nearly twice the amount of energy in comparison to existing onshore installations and could be viable in a broader array of locations.

`The 3D model was created by Brian McGill/WSJ, with additional development by Peter Champelli/WSJ. The source of information is the company. Lundstrom's startup, Radia, located in Boulder, Colorado, has maintained the confidentiality of the design.`

The Windrunner, anticipated to be 80 feet longer than the current largest military aircraft, is a colossal transport aircraft that boasts impressive dimensions. Stretching the length of a football field at 356 feet and towering 79 feet tall, this behemoth is tailored for the daunting task of transporting hefty wind turbine blades, a logistical puzzle on land. With a remarkable capacity of 80 tons, the Windrunner surpasses even the renowned Boeing 747 in both size and volume, making it the go-to choice for handling oversized cargo with unparalleled efficiency.

Lundstrom’s startup, Boulder, Colo.-based Radia, has kept the design private for years. Now, it says WindRunner is more than halfway through the eight years it estimates it will take to design, build and certify the aircraft.

Lundstrom founded Radia in 2016 as he looked for ways to marry aerospace with the energy transition when he read that delivering unwieldy blades is among the trickiest logistics jobs in the energy business.

“That was a very clear moment when the industry speaks to you,” Lundstrom said

`The WindRunner would be the largest plane by length and cargo volume if completed. ILLUSTRATION: RADIA, INC.`

Today’s offshore-sized wind blades can’t be used easily on land because they can’t move by rail or truck. They are too big to turn most corners and too wide to make it under bridges and traffic lights. Transporting them offshore requires specialized vessels.

Radia has raised $104 million and is valued at $1 billion, according to PitchBook. Employees and advisers include current and former executives at Boeing, the Federal Aviation Administration, utilities and renewable energy developers. Backers include oil giant ConocoPhillips and venture firms Caruso Ventures, Capital Factory and Good Growth Capital.

Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, a member of Radia’s advisory board, said utilities are increasing their demand forecasts by huge factors. Electricity usage is surging because of the electrification of transportation and heating across much of the U.S., plus booms in manufacturing and in data centers for artificial intelligence.

“They also want clean electricity,” Moniz said.

`Radia has raised $104 million and is valued at $1 billion, according to PitchBook. ILLUSTRATION: RADIA, INC.`

Lundstrom plans to deliver blades for wind project developers and, in some instances, develop early stage projects on its own, though it doesn’t plan to own or operate the sites.

The WindRunner includes shoulder-height tires and has the ability to land on a packed-dirt 6,000-foot runway, which would need to be built for each project. Lundstrom says projects would include about 25 of the supersize onshore turbines he envisions to be profitable.

Radia’s first customer is a large independent power producer that has bought a 1-gigawatt project in Nevada.

Bigger is better in wind. Larger blades can harvest more wind, while taller towers place blades where winds are more consistent. It adds up to more electricity over more hours of the day, even in areas with lower average wind speeds.

Radia estimates the larger turbines could reduce the cost of energy by up to 35% and increase the consistency of power generation by 20% compared with today’s onshore turbines.

Wind provided around 10% of large-scale electricity generation in the U.S. in 2022. It is a major source of electricity generation in the middle of the country, especially in Iowa, Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

Larger blades attached to taller towers would make wind more competitive everywhere while making more of the U.S. viable for wind development, said Jesse Jenkins, a professor at Princeton University who did a study for Radia as a consultant. But the larger towers would be visible to more people, which could stir community opposition.

“The biggest question mark is the social license and social acceptability,” Jenkins said.

The WindRunner would use existing technologies and components familiar to regulators, available through the existing aerospace supply chain, Lundstrom said. The company would use aircraft manufacturers to build the plane.

Rachel Kelley, former director of engineering at Boeing and Radia’s vice president of aircraft development, said the goal of the plane design was, “Do nothing new.”

If building a new airplane sounds extreme, Kelley says other measures to move big blades are impractical. Blimps can’t land in windy conditions. Helicopters are more costly than airplanes, and flying with a dangling blade designed to catch wind would prove complex and dangerous. Skipping the logistics issue altogether and building mobile manufacturing on site would require temporary structures as big as football fields.

The plane would be able to fit one large, offshore-sized blade at a time, or it could carry as many as four shorter blades. Lundstrom also thinks it has other uses for moving large equipment for the military or oil-and-gas industry.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 3/18/24 Germán & Co 3/18/24

Japan prioritizes offshore wind energy, showing dedication to sustainable…

Notes from the editor:

Experts have acknowledged the significant potential of offshore wind development in helping Japan achieve its renewable energy goals. Japan has set a target of installing 45 GW of offshore wind power by 2040, with an estimated long-term potential of 1,100 GW. However, securing capital in this sector is challenging, and the bidding process for offshore wind projects is typically complex and lengthy. The second round of offshore wind tenders in Japan requires careful consideration of regulations, pricing, and allocations. Collaboration among stakeholders is essential to maximize Japan's offshore wind capacity.

The talent of Germán & Co shines through their meticulous work, reflecting true artistry in every piece they create.

Who is Germán & Co?

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

Monday thought…

Last year in the 5th edition of Japan Energy Wind, industry experts recognized the vast potential of offshore wind development, showcasing significant promise for Japan's renewable energy goals. The country has ambitiously targeted installing up to 45 GW of offshore wind power by 2040 to meet its clean energy objectives. With an estimated long-term potential for offshore wind power reaching around 1,100 GW, the region demonstrates a wealth of untapped opportunities for expanding renewable energy sources.

Unfortunately, the bidding process is known for its complexity and lengthy duration, spanning a period of 6 to 8 years. This illness remains a prevalent and widespread issue on a global scale. Institutional investment plays a crucial role in fueling industry growth, as it provides the necessary financial support for companies to thrive. Despite its benefits, raising capital in this sector remains a challenging endeavor primarily due to the inherent risks associated with construction projects.

In Japan's second round of offshore wind tenders, careful consideration of the new rules, critical issues like pricing, and point allocations is essential. The fate of floating wind energy in Japan hinges on the removal of the 12 nautical mile restriction. Forecasts predict a flourishing industry beyond 2030. Developers are grappling with obstacles related to port access and efficient vessel logistics, demanding swift resolution to propel project advancements. Effective collaboration among stakeholders, encompassing governments, financial institutions, technology suppliers, and service providers, is paramount for capitalizing on investment prospects and unleashing Japan's offshore wind capacity to its fullest.

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

The serene Toyana bay in Japan. Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

TOKYO, March 15 (Reuters) - A group of Japanese energy firms including Mitsubishi's wind power unit, JERA and Tokyo Gas, have set up an association to boost the development of floating offshore wind farms and jointly create technology, they said on Friday.

Japan aims to become a major offshore wind power producer, with the government targeting 10 gigawatt (GW) projects by 2030 and up to 45 GW by 2040 as part of its decarbonisation push, for which floating offshore wind is essential.

The group of 14 companies said they have set up the Floating Offshore Wind Technology Research Association to realize commercialisation of large-scale floating offshore wind farms in a wide area by jointly developing technology and creating international standards with overseas organizations.

Floating offshore wind power is seen as a way to ensure Japan has a stable and sustainable energy supply and its development will also stimulate the local economy and promote Japanese industries, the group said in a statement.

Other members include Nippon Telegraph and Telephone's energy unit, Tohoku Electric Power, Kansai Electric Power and Marubeni Corp's wind power unit .

The move, first reported by a local media, comes as the Japanese government this week approved a draft amendment to existing legislation to allow for the installation of offshore wind power in exclusive economic zones (EEZ), a milestone towards the country's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

Japan aims to lead global offshore wind energy production alongside China and Britain, transitioning to a zero-emission economy for enhanced energy security.

Although Japanese companies have offshore wind assets in countries from Taiwan to Belgium and Britain, they have yet to build large-scale farms at home.

Japan plans to announce by the end of March the winners of a second major round of offshore wind tenders to build 1.8 gigawatt (GW) of capacity in four areas.

HOW DOES JAPAN PLAN TO BOOST CAPACITY?

Japan's 136 megawatt (MW) of offshore wind capacity installed by 2022 was a fraction of Britain's nearly 14 GW and China's 31 GW, the Global Wind Energy Council says.

It aims to have 10 GW by 2030, with up to 45 GW operational by 2040, as it targets a share of 36% to 38% for renewables in its electricity mix by the end of this decade, compared to about 20% now, in its race to be carbon neutral by 2050.

A Marubeni-led consortium (8002.T), opens new tab launched Japan's first large-scale commercial offshore wind operations at Noshiro port (84 MW) and Akita port (55 MW) in late 2022 and early 2023.

Danish wind turbine maker Vestas (VWS.CO), opens new tab provided bottom-fixed turbines for Marubeni's farms.

WHAT WAS THE RESULT OF THE FIRST ROUND?

A Mitsubishi-led consortium (8058.T), opens new tab won all three offshore wind farm auctions in 2021 in the regions of Akita and Chiba, with combined capacity of 1.7 GW and a target start-up date of 2028 to 2030.

00:04Shell scales back 2030 carbon emissions target

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All will have bottom-fixed structures. General Electric (GE.N), opens new tab will make 134 wind turbines, each of capacity 13 MW, to be assembled and maintained by Japan's Toshiba (6502.T), opens new tab.

The first round spurred interest by foreign companies in entering the Japanese market, among them Denmark's Orsted (ORSTED.CO), opens new tab, Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE), opens new tab and Norway's Equinor (EQNR.OL), opens new tab.

WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SECOND ROUND?

The government wrapped up its six-month auction for another 1.8 GW of capacity in four areas on June 30, with winners set to be announced by the end of March 2024, or even as soon as December.

The revised rules bar companies from revealing intent to bid.

For the second round, the ministry of economy, trade and industry (METI) set a bid price cap of 19 yen per kilowatt hour (kWh), below the first round figure of 29 yen, except for Enoshima, where construction challenges kept the ceiling at 29 yen.

JERA, Japan's top power generator, said it was running environmental assessments of the Oga-Katagami-Akita project and the Happo-Noshiro project.

Other companies making assessments - an indication of a bid - included Mitsui & Co (8031.T), opens new tab, Osaka Gas (9532.T), opens new tab, TEPCO Renewable Power (9501.T), opens new tab, Itochu Corp (8001.T), opens new tab, Tokyo Gas (9531.T), opens new tab, Marubeni and some foreigners, environmental ministry documents show.

The government is gathering public opinion until Dec. 17 for a third round of auctions to offer 1.05 GW on two offshore wind farms.

WHAT ARE THE PLANS FOR FLOATING OFFSHORE PLANTS?

In 2021, the government selected a consortium of six companies led by Toda Corp (1860.T), opens new tab to build the 16.8 MW Goto floating offshore wind farm in Nagasaki prefecture. It was the only auction bidder for the small project.

In September, Toda and its partners flagged a two-year delay in startup of the Goto project, to January 2026, because of defects in a floating structure.

Japan is preparing a new roadmap for floating offshore wind power by the end of March 2024.

WHAT CONSTRAINTS AWAIT?

METI recommends a domestic share of 60% of the supply chain by 2040. All major global renewable energy companies, from Orsted and RWE to BP, Equinor and Iberdrola, have set up offices in Japan.

GE Renewable Energy (GE.N), opens new tab has teamed with Toshiba Energy Systems & Solutions to make GE's Haliade-X offshore wind turbines near Tokyo from 2026, turning out about 80 units a year, or 1 GW annually.

The partnership is the sole nacelle supplier for the first round.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 3/17/24 Germán & Co 3/17/24

What Another Six Years of Putin May Bring for Russia and the World…

Notes from the editor:

The growing potential for a widespread blackout is becoming more alarming as the pressure on the power grid intensifies.

Many will claim this is madness... Yet, the reality differs...

In the 2021 Electricity Market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a significant increase in global electricity consumption. And this stark warning from the IEA came eight months before the Soviet gas squeeze left Europe in a serious supply restriction crisis, and the most severe damage to the economy... Last week came another warning to this effect from the Washington Post...

The truth is that the market is currently being overlooked, necessitating a closer examination of its requirements to provide the necessary adaptability to accommodate the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources.

Regulatory frameworks need to be updated and adjusted to the current surge in energy demand to facilitate a seamless transition to emerging technologies. Achieving a successful market transition requires a delicate balance between sustainability, reliability, and affordability.

The talent of Germán & Co shines through their meticulous work, reflecting true artistry in every piece they create.

Who is Germán & Co?

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

Sunday thought in the quiet of the moment…

EU president congratulates Putin on ‘landslide’ win … as Russian voting kicks off.

“No opposition. No freedom. No choice,” blasted sarcastic Charles Michel.

A zinger from Charles Michel! Yes, really.

The European Council president congratulated Vladimir Putin on his big win in the Russian presidential election — just as three days of voting began Friday.

“I would like to congratulate Vladimir Putin on his landslide victory in the elections starting today,” blasted Michel, who is more renowned for diplomatic faux pas than social media snark. “There is no opposition, no freedom, no choice.”

 POLITICO EU BY CLAUDIA CHIAPPA

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Vladimir Putin’s fifth term in office will likely be dominated by the war in Ukraine and making sure Russians support it

WSJ By Ann M. Simmons, March 17, 2024

What’s next for Vladimir Putin?

After 24 years in the Kremlin, the Russian leader is on the cusp of securing another six years as president as this weekend’s presidential election winds up Sunday. The vote itself is largely a formality, putting him on the path to becoming Russia’s longest-serving leader since Stalin. His government pulled out all the stops to secure the win. It jailed critics, muzzled the press and introduced new laws to stamp out anything that could be considered criticism of his war in Ukraine. Putin’s most effective opponent, Alexei Navalny, was gone, found dead in an Arctic prison camp last month where he was serving out sentences totaling 30 years in circumstances that haven’t been fully explained.

What matters more is the extent of his victory. Putin, now 71 years old, doesn’t just want to win. Analysts who follow the country’s politics say he needs to win big if he wants a free hand in reviving what he says are Russia’s conservative Orthodox traditions and, ultimately, prevailing in Ukraine and in his broader confrontation with the West.

“This would legitimize Putin’s legacy and his war of aggression, relegating the remaining opposition to an even more marginalized role, and allowing Putin to implement, unchecked, his vision for the next six years,” the European Parliament Think Tank, which provides analysis and research on policy issues relating to the European Union, said in a briefing paper this month.

The last presidential election in 2018 put turnout at 67.5%, with close to 77% of the vote going to Putin, according to government data. The Kremlin has made clear it wants even higher numbers this time around to provide the Russian leader a free hand in pursuing his objectives, following the “tradition of post-election carte blanche for Putin,” as Boris Vishnevsky, deputy head of the opposition party Yabloko, put it in comments posted on his Telegram channel.

Putin has already signaled some of his plans in speeches and interviews. Chief among them is his insistence on carrying on the war in Ukraine as the U.S.’s support for Kyiv shows signs of wavering.

“I think this is what the election was about—that this is a national war, that he’s the leader of the nation in this existential struggle to maintain Russia’s role in the world, to maintain Russia’s territorial integrity,” said Angela Stent, author of the book “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest” and a senior adviser at the Washington, D.C. -based United States Institute of Peace. “Everything that he has signaled is that he’s going to continue the war.”

Observers predict the Russian leader could soon launch another wave of arrests and detentions at home, new laws to stifle dissent and increased taxes on the rich. Analysts said there could also be a new wave of mobilizations to reinforce Russia’s growing advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine.

“What we have seen recently is an increase in activity of Russian intelligence and security services, which are extremely aggressive,” a reflection of the regime’s pre-election paranoia, Andrei Soldatov, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for European Policy Analysis told a media briefing on Thursday. “Because it is political stability which is at stake, everything is justifiable, including the killing of political opponents [and] attacks abroad,” he said.

Soldatov predicted the clampdown on criticism evident in the run-up to the election will continue once the vote is done, following a familiar pattern in Russia.

“They use the election as an excuse, and then they just make these methods and activities part of their playbook. My biggest concern is that they’re going to be using this for months and months to come,” he said.

Putin may face a more delicate balancing act in keeping Russia’s economy ticking. It has fared relatively well despite Western sanctions, with trade with China and buoyant oil prices helping to insulate the country’s political and business elite from any real hardship. Analysts said he would likely focus on making sure Russians continue living life as normal, while also announcing plans to spend billions of dollars to tackle poverty and to rebuild much of the country’s aging infrastructure as more of the economy goes into a war footing.

To pay for it, Putin has proposed a more progressive taxation system that some analysts suggested was aimed at appeasing poorer Russians who are making more sacrifices, both financially and in terms of family members being drafted to fight in the war.

“Truly, the distribution of the tax burden should be fair in the sense that corporations, legal entities, and individuals who earn more should contribute more to the national treasury, towards addressing nationwide problems, primarily towards fighting against poverty,” he said in an interview on state television on Wednesday.

He also spoke of creating a new elite composed of veterans and those who served in the Ukraine war and has called for them to be given more support, including academic opportunities and training.

“The true, real elite is everyone who serves Russia, workers and warriors, reliable, proven, who have proven their devotion to Russia, worthy people,” Putin said.

Some analysts described such rhetoric as empty pre-election promises. What seems more realistic, they said, was that Putin could eventually order a second mobilization, needed to gain a battlefield advantage at a time when Ukraine has faced some foot-dragging from Western nations supporting its military campaign.

Putin’s first draft of some 300,000 men in September 2022 sent hundreds of thousands fleeing across the border, among them droves of young professionals. The Russian leader will need to find a way to prevent a repetition of the exodus, such as closing the border, some analysts said.

“There’s no evidence they wouldn’t incur the same kind of resistance if he did it in the next few months,” Stent said. Though some polls show that Russians largely support the war, “it’s another thing to have their fathers, sons, brothers mobilized and sent to fight,” she said.

Other Russia watchers suggested that in addition to throwing more money at potential contract soldiers, another way to replenish the troops on the battlefield would be to draw more conscripts into the fight.

Under Russian law, conscripts aren’t supposed to be deployed to fight in Ukraine, only reservists who have completed their military service and training. But last summer, Russia raised the maximum conscription age by three years to 30 and established that conscripts would be able to enter into contracts for military service for one year during certain circumstances, including during a period of mobilization, in wartime and when the Russia’s armed forces are fighting outside the country.

Some Russians braved the threat of arrest to voice their opposition to Putin as voting began on Friday. The Central Election Commission reported five incidents of voters trying to sabotage ballot boxes by pouring liquid into them, including dye. The Investigative Committee, the country’s main federal investigating authority, said it was investigating several such incidents on criminal grounds.

The deputy election-commission chairman, Nikolai Bulaev, accused opposition elements of adopting what he said were terrorism tactics. His boss, Ella Pamfilova, called the suspects “scum” who deserved to go to jail for up to five years, Russia’s state news agency TASS reported.

In a separate incident, investigators said they had opened a criminal probe into the case of a woman suspected of setting fire to a voting booth at a polling station in southeast Moscow. Maria Andreeva, who is among a movement of wives and mothers campaigning for their mobilized men to be returned home, posted a letter from prosecutors on Telegram warning her against participating in unauthorized public events planned at polling stations in Moscow.

The real test of opposition may be yet to come.

Putin’s critics, including Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, joined forces by calling for voters to flood polling stations at noon on Sunday, and for those brave enough, to wear blue and white—colors that have been used to symbolize opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Opponents have also encouraged people to spoil their ballots or vote for someone else.

At this point, it is more a token gesture of defiance, though, and one that could result in severe consequences for anyone caught up in another crackdown.

The more significant election could be the presidential vote in the U.S. in November. Stent, the analyst, said Putin was likely waiting for the outcome along with other elections in Europe, where support for Ukraine is also showing cracks.

“He’s awaiting what will happen if Western support for Ukraine erodes, and there are already clearly differences in the alliance about that,” she said. “I think he’s going to continue the war for as long as he needs to. At this point, he feels that time is on his side.”

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Germán & Co 3/13/24 Germán & Co 3/13/24

How imminent is a worldwide electricity outage? Amidst an escalating demand for power, the United States confronts a concerning deficit in energy supply."

Notes from the editor:

The growing potential for a widespread blackout is becoming more alarming as the pressure on the power grid intensifies.

Many will claim this is madness... Yet, the reality differs...

The talent of Germán & Co shines through their meticulous work, reflecting true artistry in every piece they create.

Who is Germán & Co?

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

Notes from the editor:

The looming possibility of a widespread blackout is becoming increasingly concerning as the strain on the power grid continues to escalate…

Many will say how crazy this is... But the truth is not...

In the 2021 Electricity Market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a significant increase in global electricity consumption. And this stark warning from the IEA came eight months before the Soviet gas squeeze left Europe in a serious supply restriction crisis, and the most severe damage to the economy... Last week came another warning to this effect from the Washington Post...

Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly evident that there is a need to strike a balance between sustainability, reliability, and affordability. Otherwise, it will be challenging to manage the transition to incorporate the new technologies effectively.

Finally, how can we assess the severity of the prolonged delays in permitting processes that hinder the acceleration of market transition? If the signs are not taken seriously, we will be left uninformed.

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“The 2021 Electricity Market report presents a comprehensive analysis of the current scenario, revealing the alarming rise in the global demand for power.

"Electricity demand globally is growing faster than the expansion of renewable energy sources, leading to a significant increase in the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation. According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), there will be a 5% increase in electricity demand in 2021, with almost half of this demand being met by fossil fuels, especially coal. The trend of increasing global electricity demand poses a threat of record-high carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector in 2022.

Although renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind, and solar photovoltaic are expanding rapidly, they require support to meet the increasing demand, resulting in a notable increase in coal power usage. The report predicts that global electricity demand will increase by almost 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, mainly due to the global economic recovery.

Most of this growth is expected to come from the Asia Pacific region, particularly China and India. Despite the significant growth of renewable energy sources, they are only projected to meet approximately half of the expected increase in global electricity demand over the next two years. It is predicted that fossil fuel-based electricity generation will meet 45% of the additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022, with nuclear power accounting for the rest.

This will result in a projected increase of 3.5% in carbon emissions from the electricity sector in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022, reaching an all-time high. The report emphasizes the significance of investing in clean energy technologies, especially renewables and energy efficiency, to shift towards a sustainable path and reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power...

WP Story by Evan Halper

Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators grasping for credible plans to expand the nation's aging power grid.

In Georgia, the demand for industrial power is surging to record highs, with the projection of new electricity use for the next decade now 17 times higher than it was only recently. Arizona Public Service, the largest utility in the state, is also struggling to keep up. It projects that it will run out of transmission capacity before the end of the decade unless significant upgrades are made.

Northern Virginia requires several large nuclear power plants to support the new data centers that are planned and under construction. Texas, where electricity shortages are already routine on hot summer days, faces the same dilemma.

The soaring demand is sparking a scramble to extract more energy from an aging power grid while compelling commercial customers to take extraordinary measures to secure energy sources, such as constructing their own power plants."

When you look at the numbers, they are staggering," said Jason Shaw, chairman of the Georgia Public Service Commission, which regulates electricity. It makes you scratch your head and wonder how we ended up in this situation. How were the projections so far off? "This has created a challenge like we have never seen before."

A significant factor behind the skyrocketing demand is the rapid innovation in artificial intelligence, which is driving the construction of large warehouses of computing infrastructure that require exponentially more power than traditional data centers. AI is also a part of the significant expansion of cloud computing.

Tech companies such as Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are actively searching across the nation for locations to build new data centers, while many smaller companies are also looking for suitable sites.

The proliferation of crypto mining, where currencies like Bitcoin are transacted and minted, drives the growth of data centers. This is putting new pressure on an overtaxed grid—the network of transmission lines and power stations that distribute electricity across the country. Bottlenecks are mounting, causing delays for both new energy generators and clean energy providers, as well as large consumers, in getting connected.

The situation is sparking battles across the nation over who will pay for new power supplies, with regulators worrying that residential ratepayers could be stuck with the bill for costly upgrades. It also threatens to stifle the transition to cleaner energy as utility executives lobby to delay the retirement of fossil fuel plants and bring more online. The power crunch imperils their ability to supply the energy needed to charge the millions of electric cars and household appliances required to meet state and federal climate goals.

According to the International Energy Agency, the nation's 2,700 data centers consumed more than 4% of the country's total electricity in 2022. Its projections show that by 2026, they will consume 6 percent. Industry forecasts show that data centers are consuming a larger share of U.S. electricity in the coming years. This trend is occurring as demand from residential and smaller commercial facilities remains relatively stable, due to the continuous improvement in efficiencies of appliances and heating and cooling systems.

Data center operators are eager to connect to regional electricity grids, while the Biden administration's industrial policy is attracting companies to build factories in the United States at a pace not seen in decades. Manufacturers of "clean tech," such as solar panels and electric car batteries, are attracted by lucrative federal incentives.

According to the Electric Power Research Institute, a research and development organization, companies announced plans to build or expand more than 155 factories in this country during the first half of the Biden administration. Since the early 1990s, factory construction has accounted for a significant portion of U.S. construction spending, according to the group.

Utility projections for the power they will need over the next five years have nearly doubled. According to a review of regulatory filings by the research firm Grid Strategies, growth is expected.

Chasing power previously, companies tried to locate their data centers in areas with significant internet infrastructure, a large pool of tech talent, and attractive government incentives. But these locations are becoming crowded.

Communities with little connection to the computing industry now find themselves in the middle of a land rush, with data center developers flooding their markets with requests for grid hookups. Officials in Columbus, Ohio; Altoona, Iowa; and Fort Wayne, Indiana, are being aggressively courted by data center developers.

However, the power supply in some of these secondary markets is already running low, pushing developers further out, in some cases into cornfields, according to JLL, a commercial real estate firm catering to the tech industry.

Grid Strategies warns in its report that "there are real risks that some regions may miss out on economic development opportunities because the grid can't keep up

.""Across the board, we are seeing power companies saying,

'We do not know if we can handle this; we have to audit our system; we have never dealt with this kind of influx before,'" said Andy Cvengros, managing director of data center markets at JLL. "Everyone is now chasing power."

They are willing to look everywhere for it.

"We saw a quadrupling of land values in some parts of Columbus and a tripling in areas of Chicago," he said. "It is not about the land." It is about access to power. Some developers, he said, have had to sell the property they bought at inflated prices at a loss after utilities became overwhelmed by the rush for grid hookups.

Rethinking Incentives It is all happening simultaneously, and the energy transition is leading a large number of Americans to depend on the power grid to power vehicles, heat pumps, induction stoves, and all kinds of other household appliances that used to be fueled by fossil fuels. Much clean energy is also needed to create the green hydrogen championed by the White House.

Developers are rushing to build plants that can produce this powerful zero-emissions fuel, enticed by generous federal subsidies.

Planners are increasingly concerned that the grid will not be green or powerful enough to meet these demands.

Soaring power consumption is already causing delays in the closure of coal plants in Kansas, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and South Carolina.

In Georgia, the state's primary power company, Georgia Power, stunned regulators when it recently revealed how wildly inaccurate its projections were, attributing the discrepancy to data centers.

The demand has prompted Georgia officials to reconsider the state's policy of offering incentives to attract computing operations. These operations generate few jobs but can boost community budgets through the hefty property taxes they pay. The top leaders of Georgia's House and Senate, both Republicans, are advocating for a temporary halt in data center incentives.

Georgia regulators are currently investigating ways to safeguard ratepayers while also guaranteeing an adequate power supply to meet the demands of the state's highly valued new occupants: clean-technology companies.

Factories supplying the electric vehicle and green energy markets have been rushing to locate in Georgia, largely due to promises of affordable and dependable electricity.

When the data center industry began looking for new hubs, "Atlanta was like, 'Bring it on,'" said Pat Lynch, who leads the Data Center Solutions team at the real estate giant CBRE. "Now Georgia Power is warning of limitations."

Utility shortages in the face of these data center demands are occurring in almost every market. Utility wires in Atlanta. Georgia regulators aim to safeguard ratepayers while also guaranteeing an adequate power supply for the state's most valued new occupants: clean-tech companies.

A similar dynamic exists in another region: the Pacific Northwest. In Oregon, Portland General Electric recently doubled its forecast for new electricity demand over the next five years, citing data centers and "rapid industrial growth" as the drivers.

The power crunch disrupted the plans of Michael Halaburda and Arman Khalili, long-time data center developers. Their latest project involves converting a mothballed tile factory in the Portland area. The two were under the impression only a couple of months ago that they would be fine with obtaining the electricity needed to run the place.

The power company then informed them that a "line and load study" would be required to determine if it could provide the facility with 60 megawatts of electricity, approximately the amount necessary to power 45,000 homes.

Going off the grid The Portland project that Halaburda and Khalili are developing will now be powered largely by off-the-grid, high-tech fuel cells that convert natural gas into low-emission electricity.

The technology will be supplemented by whatever power can be secured from the grid. The partners have decided that for their next project in South Texas, they will not rely on the grid at all. Instead, they will drill thousands of feet into the ground to extract geothermal energy.Halaburda sees the growth as beneficial for the country and the economy.

"But no one took into consideration where this is all going," he said. "In the next couple of years, unless there is a real focus on expanding the grid and making it more robust, we are going to see opportunities fall by the wayside because we can't get power to where it is needed.

“Companies are increasingly turning to off-the-grid experiments as their frustration with the logjam in the nation's traditional electricity network mounts.

Microsoft and Google are among the companies hoping that energy-intensive industrial operations can ultimately be powered by small nuclear plants on-site. Microsoft even utilized AI to streamline the cumbersome process of obtaining plant approvals.

Microsoft has also signed a deal to purchase power from a company that is working on developing zero-emissions fusion power. However, going off the grid presents significant regulatory and land acquisition challenges. For example, the type of nuclear plants envisioned still needs to be operational in the United States. Fusion power does not yet exist.

The big tech companies are also exploring ways AI can help make the grid operate more efficiently. According to Google, they are developing platforms that can shift computing tasks and their associated energy consumption to times and locations where carbon-free energy is available on the grid during peak power demand. However, meeting both their zero-emissions pledges and their AI innovation ambitions is becoming increasingly complicated as the energy needs of their data centers grow.

"These problems are not going away," said Michael Ortiz, CEO of Layer 9 Data Centers, a U.S. company aiming to circumvent the bottleneck by constructing facilities in Mexico.

"Data centers will need to become more efficient, and we must utilize cleaner sources of energy, such as nuclear power. “Officials at Equinix, one of the world's largest data center companies, have been experimenting with fuel cells as backup power. However, they remain hopeful that they can continue to rely on the power grid as their main source of electricity for new projects.

The logjam is already pushing officials overseeing the clean-energy transition at some of the nation's largest airports to look beyond the grid. The energy required to charge fleets of electric rental vehicles and ground maintenance trucks alone is immense. An analysis shows that electricity demand will double by 2030 at the Denver and Minneapolis airports. By 2040, they will need more than triple the electricity they are using now, according to the study commissioned by the car rental giant Enterprise, Xcel Energy, and Jacobs, a consulting firm.

"Utilities are not going to be able to move quickly enough to provide all this capacity," said Christine Weydig, Vice President of Transportation at AlphaStruxure, a company that designs and operates clean-energy projects. "The infrastructure is not there." Different solutions will be needed. Airports are considering significantly expanding the utilization of clean-power "microgrids" that they can construct on-site.

The Biden administration has prioritized easing the grid bottleneck, but it is politically fraught and limited in federal powers. Building the transmission lines and transfer stations requires extensive land acquisitions, thorough environmental reviews, and negotiations to determine cost responsibilities.

The process runs through state regulatory agencies, and fights between states over who bears the cost and where power lines should be placed routinely hinder and delay proposed projects. The number of new transmission lines installed in the United States has significantly decreased since 2013, when 4,000 miles were added. Now, the nation struggles to bring online even 1,000 new miles a year.

The slowdown has real consequences not just for companies but also for the climate. A group of scientists, led by Princeton University professor Jesse Jenkins, warned in a report that by 2030, the United States risks losing out on 80% of the potential emission reductions from President Biden's signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, if the pace of transmission construction does not pick up dramatically now.

The proliferation of data centers increases pressure on states to approve new transmission lines, complicating the task. Officials in Maryland are protesting a $5.2 billion infrastructure plan designed to transmit power to large data centers in Loudoun County, Virginia. The Maryland Office of People's Counsel, a government agency that advocates for ratepayers, criticized grid operator PJM's plan as "fundamentally unfair." The agency argued that the plan could result in Maryland utility customers bearing the cost of power transmission to data centers that Virginia actively pursued and is using to generate significant tax revenue.

In Texas, a dramatic increase in data centers for crypto mining is sparking a debate over whether they are a costly burden on an overtaxed grid. An analysis by the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie found that the energy required by cryptocurrency operations seeking to connect to the grid would amount to a quarter of the electricity consumed in the state during peak demand. Unlike data centers operated by big tech companies like Google and Meta, crypto miners typically do not invest in renewable energy projects to provide sufficient zero-emission energy to the grid for their operations.

The result, as stated by Ben Hertz-Shargel, the author of the Wood Mackenzie analysis, is that the energy consumption of cryptocurrencies poses a threat to Texas' capacity to support other energy-intensive activities crucial for fostering innovation and economic development.

These activities include the operation of factories producing zero-emission green hydrogen fuel and industrial charging stations facilitating the electrification of truck and bus fleets.

After decades of readily available power, regulators and utility executives across the country are generally not empowered to prioritize which projects get connected. It is first come, first served, and the line is growing longer.

To address the issue, some states have enacted laws to safeguard the access of crypto mining to significant power resources."Lawmakers need to consider this," Hertz-Shargel emphasized when discussing the allocation of an increasingly limited power supply. There is a risk that strategic industries may face challenges when trying to establish themselves in those states.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 3/12/24 Germán & Co 3/12/24

The ‘elephant in the room’ that risks exposing Britain’s net zero agenda… (The Telegraph)

Notes from the editor:

To be or not to be is the big question that suddenly confronts the net-zero emission movement...

The urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions has become crucial for central banks and governments in the current global inflationary environment. Some financial institutions increasingly acknowledge their vital role in transitioning from carbon-intensive activities. Governments are tasked with creating policies to reduce CO2 emissions while managing the economic implications of a complex global economy. Both entities face the challenge of transitioning to a low-carbon economy, requiring skilful management of the shift from traditional fossil fuels to sustainable energy sources. Financial institutions are under increasing pressure from stakeholders and regulators to reduce emissions linked to their financing activities. Despite this, an influential movement advocates for a balanced approach, warning against solely relying on renewable energy and promoting a revival of nuclear power to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The challenge for banks and governments is to balance economic growth, environmental stewardship, and societal expectations. Citigroup, a major financial institution supporting fossil fuel companies, may need to secure around $73 billion in funds under a climate stress scenario. Central banks are developing stress testing mechanisms to assess climate-related risks financial institutions face within their jurisdiction. This examination explores the factors causing the expected slow transformation in leading financial institutions. These conservative institutions see a significant obstacle in their financial operations, like a greedy elephant in the room.

The talent of Germán & Co shines through their meticulous work, reflecting true artistry in every piece they create.

Notes from the editor:

To be or not to be is the big question that suddenly confronts the net-zero emission movement...

The challenge of reducing CO2 emissions is a significant issue for central banks and governments amid the current global inflation. For some banks, there is an increasing acknowledgement of their role in funding the transition from carbon-emitting activities. Meanwhile, governments are tasked with creating policies to encourage CO2 reductions while considering the economic impacts of an already very complex economy. Both face the difficult task of transitioning to a low-carbon economy, which involves managing the shift from fossil fuels to sustainable energy sources.

Banks are under pressure from stakeholders and regulators to reduce financed emissions. However, a powerful movement is also working behind the scenes, indicating the risks involved if all efforts are directed towards renewable energy. At the same time, they advocate for a red-carpet return to nuclear power, with many aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050. However, the dilemma for banks and governments is balancing economic growth, environmental responsibility, and societal expectations. For instance, Citigroup, a major financier of fossil fuel businesses, may need to raise $73 billion under a climate stress scenario. Central banks are also developing stress tests to assess climate change risks for the banks they oversee.

Finally, this analysis elucidates the factors contributing to the anticipated delayed pace of transformation within major financial institutions. These old conservative institutions perceive a formidable obstacle in the intricate nature of their financial operations, likened to a substantial and seemingly insatiable elephant in the room.

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UK’s ‘hidden’ carbon emissions fail to show the bigger picture

Jonathan Leake11 March 2024

It’s one of the Government’s proudest boasts. Britain, it claims, has almost halved its greenhouse gas emissions from 800m tonnes in 1990 to just 417m tonnes in 2022.

It’s a staggering decrease – a faster decline than almost any other advanced nation. And it is a fact that is used regularly by politicians to trumpet the UK’s progress.

“We’re far ahead of every other country in the world,” Rishi Sunak said in September. “We’ve had the fastest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the G7. Down almost 50pc since 1990. France? 22pc. The US? No change at all. China? Up by over 300pc.”

But can a nation whose population has grown by several million in the past two decades, with each citizen consuming more than ever, really have cut emissions by such a massive amount?

Part of the answer to that question lies in the databases of Leeds University where the UK’s official “consumption emissions” figures – the statistical elephant in the room – are compiled by a team led by Professor John Barrett.

When politicians say that emissions have fallen to 400m tonnes, they are referring to the greenhouse gases emitted within Britain’s borders, from power stations, cars, homes, offices and what’s left of industry. These are known as territorial – or production – emissions.

What they exclude is everything else, meaning all foreign-produced cars, clothes, food and every other import as well as the shipping that imports those goods into the UK, and most of the aviation fuel burned for passenger flights.

These overseas emissions used to be relatively small, but as the UK’s own industries have shrunk, they have become an ever-increasing proportion of the overall carbon footprint.

In 1990, overseas emissions totalled less than 200m tonnes of CO2 emissions per year. Since then the UK’s increasing reliance on imports means overseas emissions totalled 350m to 400m tonnes.

Last year the UK exported goods worth £393bn according to government data. However, Britain imported goods worth £581bn, resulting in an excess of £189bn.

“Within a couple of years, greenhouse gas emissions associated with UK consumption will result in more emissions outside the UK than inside the UK,” says Leeds University’s Barrett. “Emissions embodied in imports will be more than the total territorial emissions in the UK.”

In real terms it means that, in addition to the 400m or so tonnes of CO2 pouring from Britain’s homes, vehicles and remaining smokestacks, there are another 350m to 400m tonnes being produced on the UK’s behalf but in other countries. If you add those two figures together and make an adjustment for the UK’s exports, you get Britain’s overall carbon footprint – its consumption emissions – which now total around 750m to 800m tonnes.

It is a marked fall from 1990 when the UK’s consumption emissions totalled 1bn tonnes but nowhere near the 50pc cut claimed by Mr Sunak last year.

“We have provided the Government with the UK’s consumption-based emissions data for many years,” says Barrett. “However, it is rarely or never quoted when statements are made about emission reduction. I believe it should be. Both approaches are needed.”

Energy consumption figures give an answer as to why the UK’s own CO2 emissions have sunk so rapidly. In 2022, the country used less energy from all sources including coal, gas and renewables than in any year since 1970.

The Government’s energy statistics briefings link this to warm weather and improved efficiency.

Perhaps one of the most obvious contributors is the closure of the fleet of coal-fired power stations that provided around 40pc of UK electricity as recently as the 1990s but which emitted tens of millions of tonnes of CO2 a year. However, although their closure caused some of the decline in emissions, it cannot explain the fall in overall energy consumption.

For economists there has always been a direct link between economic growth and rising energy consumption; the more energy a country can consume, the richer its population becomes.

Jorge León, senior vice-president for oil and energy research at Rystad Energy, says: “I’ve heard loads of politicians saying, ‘look, this decline in energy consumption is great, we’ve become more efficient’. But I don’t think it is all due to greater efficiency.

“We have seen many energy intensive industries closing down in Europe because of the high energy costs. This is a broad macroeconomic environment where things are not looking great, where output is decreasing. Our declining emissions reflect that.”

The Government’s own statistics show that the sector experiencing the biggest decline in energy use is UK industry. In 1970 when the UK still had its own steel and other heavy industries, energy equivalent to 65m tonnes of oil was consumed. By 2022 that had plummeted by two-thirds to 22m tonnes.

Some industrialists warn it will sink further still. Last month, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, head of chemicals giant Ineos, wrote to Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, warning that the UK and Europe were “sleepwalking towards offshoring its industry, jobs, investments, and emissions”.

Sir Jim added that carbon taxes, designed to drive emissions down still further, were also “driving away investment”.

“These taxes have encouraged imports from countries without carbon taxes, which has increased the carbon footprint of Europe,” he said. “We’re not doing the world any favours if we’re substituting relatively high-quality production here in terms of emissions with poorer quality, lower regulated production from other parts of the world.”

Asked why ministers always cite the UK’s territorial emissions but never mention overall consumption, a government spokesman said: “The data is calculated using the agreed international approach to report emissions produced within each territory to avoid them being double counted.”

However the Government’s own advisers, the Climate Change Committee, said in its latest progress report to ministers, that the UK “must also reduce its consumption emissions, those embedded in imported goods and services”.

It added: “The Committee will continue to scrutinise progress on consumption emissions alongside territorial emissions and advise on policies that reduce both. Reducing emissions in the UK must not be at the expense of exporting jobs and emissions overseas.”

Bob Ward, policy director at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute for Climate Change, says: “Most of the decline in territorial emissions since 1990 has been due to the phase-out of coal in the power sector. In addition there have been declines in overall energy use, partly due to our economy becoming more services-based with manufacturing moving to countries with lower labour costs.”

Scientists and business leaders fear that if politicians are allowed to keep citing only the UK’s national emissions figures, while ignoring those generated by imports, consumers will become complacent about the environment.

Myles Allen, Oxford University’s professor of geosystem science, who served on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), says the real discussions about emissions should be around ending them completely.

“Achieving net zero should mean, from 2050, no one will be allowed to sell stuff that causes global warming,” he says. “So anyone who sells a product that causes global warming would need to explain how they are going to stop it causing global warming – whether through its production, use or disposal – by 2050.

“If a single politician could spell it out in these not-very-complicated terms, it would have far more impact than claims about the UK’s carbon footprint.”

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

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Haiti is currently facing challenges that may lead to self-destruction, necessitating international aid provision…

Believe it or not, in today's society, it is a disturbing reality that a human being can be purchased for a mere 35 euros. This unimaginable concept challenges the very core of our ethical beliefs and highlights the urgent need for awareness and action in combating such deplorable practices.

Yes, that is indeed what can be termed a 35-euro slavery detailed by Benjamin Skinner in an article featured in "Foreign Policy" magazine. The piece, found in the April/May 2008 issue of the Spanish edition, starkly exposes the unsettling reality: "New York is a mere five-hour flight away from where a healthy child can be openly sold." Commonly, these individuals are coerced into industries like prostitution and domestic servitude. The article defines a slave as someone subjected to labor under deception or force, provided with just enough for survival. Skinners reveals the chilling truth that such transactions take place right in front of the popular barbershop Le Réseau on Rue de Delmas in Port-au-Prince, one of the bustling streets in the capital.

The line of barbed wire reminds us of Nazi concentration camps. On one side and the other, one feels that corruption, human trafficking, illegal adoption business, informal trade, drug trafficking, and extreme destitution prevail there. All these plagues create a lawless space with no opportunities for any semblance of a dignified life. They are the owners of "No Man's Land."

Adding to all this misfortune that day were the wounded Haitians trying to cross the line in search of medical help. They came because their country, one of the poorest in the world, had been completely devastated by the destructive force of nature.

Sixteen years have passed since the article "Slavery for 35 euros" was published by Foreign Police, shedding light on the heinous practice of human exploitation for a meager sum. Today the esteemed Spanish newspaper El País published an article highlighting the dire situation in Haiti, a country that is sadly undergoing a process of self-destruction, facing challenges on multiple fronts.

The talent of Germán & Co shines through their meticulous work, reflecting true artistry in every piece they create.

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Foreword:

Believe it or not, in today's society, it is a disturbing reality that a human being can be purchased for a mere 35 euros. This unimaginable concept challenges the very core of our ethical beliefs and highlights the urgent need for awareness and action in combating such deplorable practices.

Yes, that is indeed what can be termed as the 35-euro slavery detailed by Benjamin Skinner in an article featured in "Foreign Policy" magazine. The piece, found in the April/May 2008 issue of the Spanish edition, starkly exposes the unsettling reality: "New York is a mere five-hour flight away from where a healthy child can be openly sold." Commonly, these individuals are coerced into industries like prostitution and domestic servitude. The article defines a slave as someone subjected to labor under deception or force, provided with just enough for survival. Skinners reveals the chilling truth that such transactions take place right in front of the popular barbershop Le Réseau on Rue de Delmas in Port-au-Prince, one of the bustling streets in the capital.

Sixteen years have passed since the article "Slavery for 35 euros" was published by Foreign Police, shedding light on the heinous practice of human exploitation for a meager sum. Today the esteemed Spanish newspaper El País published an article highlighting the dire situation in Haiti, a country that is sadly undergoing a process of self-destruction, facing challenges on multiple fronts.

In the introductory thoughts regarding Haiti within the pages of the book "The Non Man Land" by Germán Toro Ghio published in 2012, a profound exploration emerges on the complex intricacies of the nation's historical tapestry and societal structure.

The atmosphere suddenly changes from lush green to dry and arid. For centuries, Haiti has been suffering from the devastation of its forests. In 1697, when the island's western side was ceded to France by the Treaty of Ryswik in Europe, French settlers had already initiated the plantation system over fifty years earlier. This form of intensive cultivation of agricultural products marked the beginning of a period of prosperity for France. However, it also initiated the process of turning Haitian soil into a desert. Since then, this process has continued to this day.
Approaching Port-au-Prince by air, we began to see the destruction caused by the earthquake we had not witnessed while travelling by land. The number of buildings and houses reduced to rubble on the ground was uncountable. The fledgling constructions, of dubious quality, were easy prey to the fury of the earth's movement.
In the morning, we landed at the Dominican Embassy's heliport in the Haitian capital. Despite our meticulous efforts to coordinate with our contacts, they were not waiting for us at the diplomatic headquarters. We wanted to leave immediately for the Pétion-Ville hospital. However, it was impossible to set off through the city streets without the protection of the authorities of Minustha (United et al. for the Stabilization of Haiti), the only military force in Haiti since the local army was disbanded in 2004 with the US intervention.
Only after midday did we manage to leave the embassy for the hospital. After leaving the Dominican embassy, you ascend a hill via a narrow road and arrive at a bustling street. You immediately see a sign with the name Pétion-Ville indicating the direction of the road. You can see the damage everywhere. Frequent cases of cars being crushed by slabs of houses that have fallen on them are reported. Carabinieri, carrying the Chilean flag on their shoulders, stood guard at some of the corners.
A spontaneous market had formed right where the sign indicating the following route was located. The poverty and hygienic conditions in this micro market are astonishing. An older woman, leaning against the wall, half-sitting in the air with her long skirt hanging down, washes a bunch of parsley with the dirty water that flows down the street due to the lack of sewage system. At that time, Port-au-Prince was characterized by an unbearable stench that necessitated using handkerchiefs to cover noses and mouths.
We were moving slowly on our way to the hospital. The road is steep, narrow, winding, and usually congested with vehicle traffic. In addition, due to the earthquake damage, there was power, poles twisted into the road every few meters, and fallen trees and debris. At some point along the route, bystanders attempted to intercept the vans in a criminal act. However, the military, undeterred, fired shots into the air and scared them off. The drivers drive defensively. Despite the difficulties, they tried to speed up as if someone were following them.
We were finally approaching the medical centre. Suddenly, I saw hundreds of multi-coloured tents set up around the clinic. The wounded were living there with their families and displaced people, crammed into fragile, small spaces no more than two or three meters wide by two meters long and less than the height of an average person standing upright. An infernal heat was among the tents, almost all made of plastic earth floors, especially during the day. In these conditions, they ate, slept, and relieved themselves.

There is increasing pressure on Prime Minister Ariel Henry's resignation. He declared the scheduling of elections for August 2025.

El País by Pablo Ferri, provides insights into Mexico and was originally published on March 10, 2024. Our team at Germán & Co. has meticulously translated and edited the content to ensure accuracy and clarity for our readership.

On 29 February, Alan was driving his car along Route Delmas in Port-au-Prince, Haiti's capital, one of the usual roads between the upper and lower parts of the city. He had dropped off a client at the airport and was returning to his area of operation, near Petionville, in the uptown neighbourhood of embassies and banks. "It was there, in Delmas," he explains by phone from the Haitian capital, "that I began to see the situation becoming more complicated. I saw bodies on the ground and everything. It was the beginning of the latest wave of violence in Haiti, which is still not over.

Since that day, criminal gangs in the capital have indiscriminately attacked everything that smacks of the state in Port-au-Prince, with particular attention to the national police stations - the bandits have attacked at least nine - the cadet academy, the prisons, from which more than 3,500 prisoners have escaped, the Sylvio Cator national stadium and the international airport, which was closed and has not reopened.

On Friday night, a group of gang members shot at the gates of the National Palace and tried to set fire to the headquarters of the Ministry of the Interior, where officers eventually managed to contain the riot.

Political sources close to the situation say there are two main reasons for the unrest. The first was the announcement by Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who has led the country since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, that he would call elections in August 2021 that he will call elections in August 2025, a date that many in Haiti see as too far away. Second, Henry's own visit to Kenya last week to negotiate a UN-led police mission. The criminal gangs that dominate much of the capital did not like it and let it be known. Maybe they didn't hear it anyway, I don't know, Rosita.

Videos of extreme cruelty have circulated on social networks, showing groups of armed youths - the de facto power in the city - abusing the corpses of murdered policemen, or using drones to stalk the handful of agents who are trying to contain the onslaught. At the same time, crime leaders, most notably ex-cop Jimmy Cherizier, aka Barbecue, hold wild press conferences in which they present themselves as social leaders willing to do anything to bring down the government.

A private security guard, Alan, a fictitious name, spent the afternoon of 29 February taking people to his house. "Through the WhatsApp groups we saw that things were very hot. Me and my team took our clients to their homes. There were 15 of them. Then everyone went to their homes and waited for it to stop. The police don't have the capacity," he explains: "Everyone is afraid, they're waiting for help from abroad, that's the only option.

Foreign aid is all the rage these days. For months, the United Nations has been trying to finalise the deployment of a police support mission to the country, which has less than 10,000 police officers for a population of 11 million. Kenya has put its hand up to lead the mission and has pledged to send at least 1,000 officers. Other nations, such as Spain, have also offered human and material support, all under the financial umbrella of the United States, which has pledged to match its investment in the country which has promised a logistical investment of 200 million dollars.

The criminal gangs, which number in the dozens in Port-au-Prince, with shifting leaderships and alliances, are uncomfortable with the arrival of an international mission. Born in the heat of political fights, their dynamics have changed in recent years. During the first two decades of the century, they functioned as shock groups at the service of the elites in a political logic permanently attached to electoral cycles. However, Haiti last held elections in 2016, and gangs have begun looking elsewhere for resources. Since then, extortion and kidnapping have become their main activities.

Romain Le Cour, a researcher at “The Global Initiative” against “Transnational Organized Crime”, a Swiss-based civil society organization, highlights the pervasive nature of the kidnapping industry in Haiti. Le Cour, who departed Port-au-Prince amid the escalating crisis, recounts a recent interview with a victim who described being held captive along with 70 others in a safe house. The victim emphasized the organized nature of the operations, revealing that hostages could be detained for up to a month or even a month and a half. Le Cour underscores the alarming reality facing residents, stating that virtually everyone either knows someone who has fallen victim to kidnapping in Port-au-Prince or expects it to happen imminently.

A Prime Minister Cornered…

The figure of Ariel Henry embodies much of the chaos in Haiti. The acting prime minister has not been able to return to the country. His return flight from Kenya landed in Puerto Rico, where he awaits a solution to the crisis. A source familiar with the political situation in the capital says criminal groups are targeting the airport precisely because of it. They do not want the airlines to run again to prevent Henry's return and thus precipitate his resignation.

"Henry's is a transitional government, and generally governments like this have lasted two years here," Haitian economist and sociologist Joseph Harold Pierre said by telephone from Cap-Haitien. "By announcing elections for August 2025, with whatever delays there may be and so on, Henry would be in power for five years. A good part of the political class has been frustrated with this announcement," he explains. "I believe that there are going to be profound changes in the government, changes of ministers, at least. I'm sure negotiations are going on, but behind the scenes," says Pierre.

These negotiations are aimed in part at criminal gangs. "Currently, there are two entities that have power in Haiti, the gangs and the international community. Any political group that wants power and doesn't achieve legitimacy in the eyes of the two of them won't be able to do anything," Pierre continues. In that sense, criminal leader Barbecue, who has set himself up as a spokesman for a federation of the capital's most powerful criminal gangs, which he calls Vivre Ensemble (Living Together), has been very clear. If Henry does not leave, he says, there will be a "civil war that will lead to genocide."

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

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Two Canals, Two Big Problems—One Global Shipping Mess…

The two canals are a big geopolitical mess...

WALL STREET JOURNAL BY COSTAS PARIS, DATED MARCH 10, 2024

On a recent day, more than 50 ships, ranging from tankers carrying propane to cargo ships loaded with food, lined up to traverse the Panama Canal. Due to a prolonged drought, the canal's operator has reduced the number of crossings, leading to extended wait times. The tolls that ships must pay have skyrocketed to about eight times their usual cost.

Meanwhile, over 7,000 miles away, ships transporting containers through Egypt's Suez Canal either wait for naval escorts or opt for a much longer route around South Africa to avoid potential danger. Ship operators are concerned about the safety of their crews during journeys through the Red Sea, fearing missile or drone attacks from a rebel group based in Yemen.

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Drought in Panamá, Houthi attacks in Red Sea delay deliveries, raise costs…

The Wall Street Journal by Costas Paris, dated March 10, 2024

More than 50 ships queued to cross the Panama Canal on a recent day—from tankers hauling propane to cargo ships packed with food. A prolonged drought has led the canal’s operator to cut the number of crossings, resulting in longer waits. The tolls that ships pay are now around eight times more expensive than normal.

Over 7,000 miles away, vessels that move containers through Egypt’s Suez Canal are waiting for naval escorts or avoiding the passage altogether to take a much longer voyage around South Africa. Ship operators fear that their crews could be imperiled on the journeys through the Red Sea by missile or drone attacks from a Yemen-based rebel group.

The Suez’s problems are geopolitical and those in Panama are climate-based, but both are roiling global trade. Cargo volumes through the Suez and Panama canals have plunged by more than a third. Hundreds of vessels have diverted to longer routes, resulting in delivery delays, higher transportation costs and economic wreckage for local communities.

Ship operators are bracing for months of uncertainty in the waterways where some 18% of global trade volumes crossed last year.

The Panama Canal is in the midst of one of the driest periods in the artificial waterway’s century of operation. Officials hope the drought, which started in mid-2023, will let up at the end of the dry season in May.

In the Suez, some ship operators have indefinitely suspended voyages because of strikes on commercial vessels further south. Houthis have attacked more than 50 ships since November, including a cargo vessel loaded with fertilizer that sank into the Red Sea and another that resulted in three deaths.

Retaliatory strikes by an American-led coalition have destroyed roughly a third of Houthi military assets, according to a Pentagon official.

`Note: Based on total number of hours ships spent within each square kilometer`
`Source: Global Maritime Traffic Carl Churchill/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL`

“It’s the first time that both are disrupted simultaneously so you have to plan way in advance where to send your ship and you pay a hell of a lot more regardless,” said Tim Hansen, chief operations officer of Stamford, Conn.-based Dorian LPG, which operates a fleet of 25 ships that move propane and butane.

The problems haven’t had a huge impact on consumers yet, but businesses are starting to feel the ripples. Tesla and Volvo paused vehicle production for up to two weeks in January because of parts shortages.

Some apparel companies opted for their spring fashions to be delivered by air instead of sea to ensure items arrived on time.

For now, the interruptions to supply chains are on a modest scale compared with the more widespread bottlenecks seen in 2020 and 2021.

Back then, shippers passed along the higher costs on ocean freight to consumers, contributing to inflation on a range of consumer goods. Daily freight rates on some routes between Asia and the U.S. surged to more than $20,000 per box, roughly five times higher than current levels.

Businesses have also learned lessons from supply chaos during the pandemic, and some have built up bigger inventories to avoid running out of products.

Suez disruptions have lengthened average sailing times by about 10 days, but consumers haven’t been affected, said Jesper Brodin, CEO of Ingka Group, the company that operates most of the world’s IKEA stores.

Less water…

The problems meant Connecticut-based Dorian changed the calculus for its ships late last year—twice.

The Panama Canal offers the shortest route for Dorian’s ships setting sail from the Gulf of Mexico to make deliveries to clients in China, Japan and South Korea. The westbound trip, through the canal and then across the Pacific, takes roughly 25 days, compared with 40 going east through the Suez.

Some 14% of seaborne trade in and out of the U.S. sails through the waterway. Several Latin American countries use the canal to move roughly a quarter of their exports.

The drought has meant less water to feed the locks that allow ships to cross the canal. More than 50 million gallons of water are washed to sea every time a ship moves through the locks. That water is replenished from a reservoir that’s now running low.

How the Panama Canal Works…

Under normal conditions, full cargo ships are able to move freely through the canal system. However under drought conditions, authorities fear with low water levels, the ships can't pass through without lightening their payload and fewer are being allowed through.

The canal’s operator wants to invest around $1 billion on construction and engineering projects to increase access to water reserves, pending government approval. The project could take years to complete.

The canal also supplies water to about 2.5 million people, or around half the country’s population—and the drought is taking a toll on local businesses.

Sabina Torres runs a general store, Tienda 98, at a dock on Lake Alajuela, which is part of the freshwater network that feeds the Panama Canal.

Under the drought, the lake has receded from the dock. Water is available only every other day, from 7 to 9 a.m. Those days, the 46-year-old Torres scrambles to fill tanks and jugs with water for drinking, washing and flushing toilets.

Products that she sells typically arrive by boat, but fewer deliveries can now make it in. Torres bought an all-terrain vehicle and hired additional workers to navigate the mud and rocks and bring her products from the boats.

Torres’s store, which largely serves local residents, makes around $1,500 a month. That fell to $800 in both December and January. She’s now buying more items in advance to make sure she has enough stock. “We are rushing to get enough supplies,” she said.

Under attack…

Around the world, prices are rising for cargo owners. Daily boxship rates along routes from Asia to the Americas more than doubled in January from a year earlier, data from U.K. brokerage Braemar showed. Rates for Asia-to-Europe trips were up 67%.

Trade volumes going through the Suez fell more than 40% in December and January compared with the year-earlier period, according to United Nations data. The canal is used by dozens of ships moving Asian exports to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, along with some of the world’s biggest tankers moving oil from the Middle East.

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other large carriers of ocean freight haven’t returned to the Red Sea, despite the U.S.-led naval coalition’s attacks on the rebel group.

“To go back, we will need to meet a very high threshold to ensure our crews and ships are not in risk,” said Maersk Chief Executive Vincent Clerc, whose company typically made 15 to 17 Suez crossings a week. “So far there is an escalation and I don’t know if the attacks on the Houthis will help out things.”

Clerc said returning to the Suez would require guarantees from security officials that ships could travel safely through the region.

Nikolaev Balan, the executive officer of a European-owned tanker, has crossed the Red Sea and the Suez dozens of times. On Jan. 11, his ship was in the Red Sea during the first U.S. raid on Houthi targets in Yemen.

“We saw a drone flying a few meters from the stern and as we called it in to say that we are targeted. There were warnings on the radio to get out because the Americans will attack,” he said. “We turned back and we are not going back in there.”

In Egypt, supply boat operator Eman Ayad, 42, hasn’t earned much money to move cargo around the Suez over the past several weeks.

Ayad is one of about a dozen independent owners of boats regularly working in the canal zone offering towing services and supplies like food, lubricants and spare parts. The boat’s services generate about $800 a month.

He inherited the boat from his father around a decade ago and it serves as his family’s sole source of income. He said his family, including his wife and three small children, is living on savings.

“If this lasts for another month I will have to sell [the tugboat] to pay debts,” Ayad said. He’s thinking about immigrating to the U.S. where relatives could help him land a job if Suez business doesn’t return—and soon.

Not all vessels are ditching the Suez. Operators sailing the waterway to access the wider region via the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea routinely hire armed guards to help repel attacks. Four guards per vessel can cost about $40,000 per Red Sea voyage, shipowners and operators said.

Toll revenue paid by ships to cross the Suez fell by almost half in January to $428 million, compared with $804 million in the same month last year, said Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabie. Along with tourism, the Suez Canal is one of the main foreign income sources for Egypt.

At the Panama Canal, the drop in permitted crossings hasn’t dented overall revenue, in part because the per-ship toll increased. The canal brought in $3.3 billion from tolls in 2023, up from more than $3 billion the year prior.

“The operators are complaining, but we try to accommodate as many crossings as possible. The weather has been very unforgiving,” said Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, the canal’s administrator.

Canal authorities don’t expect the bump from crossing fees to last. Ship operators prefer a steady toll regime and the canal wants good relations with its customers, Vásquez Morales said.

The canal authority plans to review the number of permitted daily crossings in April, depending on rainfall levels in March. It expects the effects of the drought to reduce its revenue this year by around $200 million, he said.

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

Germán & Co 3/9/24 Germán & Co 3/9/24

The SEC Watered Down Its Climate Reporting Requirements. Here’s What That Means for Companies…

How much influence does the British press have in the pursuit of truth?

The controversial use of super-injunctions raises important questions regarding freedom of speech and the public's right to information. Reflecting on Hamlet's famous words, "To be or not to be, that is the question," sheds light on the ethical dilemmas posed by super-injunctions in a democratic society. Delving into the complexities of political science, one can uncover parallels between this legal tool and the delicate balance required to wield power while preserving societal stability.

In the context of legal systems worldwide, a super injunction emerges as a powerful instrument utilized by influential entities and individuals to suppress and control media coverage effectively. Through its far-reaching scope and provisions, this legal measure bolsters the ability of those in positions of authority to regulate the dissemination of information and safeguard their interests from unwarranted exposure or scrutiny.

The talent of Germán & Co shines through their meticulous work, reflecting true artistry in every piece they create.

`Germán & Co features a variety of special art pieces made with passion and creativity. Their team works together to combine various styles and perspectives, creating a diverse visual experience that conveys the artists' feelings.`

AES Corporation, a global energy company listed on the Fortune 500 index, remains resolute in its mission to advance energy sustainability on a global scale. Emphasizing eco-friendly approaches and state-of-the-art technology, AES forges partnerships with a myriad of stakeholders to deliver reliable, cost-effective energy solutions that enhance life quality worldwide. The company's inclusive workforce drives constant innovation and adheres to stringent operational norms. Through the adoption of a comprehensive safety and environmental management platform, AES safeguards its personnel, patrons, and local communities while mitigating ecological footprints. By working closely with clients to transition towards strategic energy options that align with their current requirements, AES offers a comprehensive suite of services spanning energy storage, renewable resources, and natural gas to cater to diverse demands. Committed to fostering sustainable energy practices and operational excellence, AES actively engages in community initiatives to bolster education and uplift living standards in the regions it serves.

Just envision a pure stream of water meandering through the development of a grand and infinte renewable park spanning all five continents. This metaphor is apt for describing the exceptional work carried out in the global energy sector.

Yesterday, AES Corporation's clean energy division announced the expansion of its Houston office facilities.

The office is located at GreenStreet Tower in downtown Houston. The decision is a strategic component of the company's overarching plan to leverage abundant talent and resources in the Greater Houston region's energy sector. Kleber Costa, the Chief Commercial Officer of AES, emphasized the importance of promoting innovation and underscored Houston's central role as a hub for advancements in the energy sector.

The Houston office currently houses around 90 AES staff members, comprising individuals from the clean energy commercial and operations teams. AES is a leading provider of sustainable energy solutions to global corporations and is currently involved in various projects, including solar, wind, energy storage, and green hydrogen initiatives in Texas.

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The SEC Watered Down Its Climate Reporting Requirements. Here’s What That Means for Companies…

Scope 3 reporting requirements in California and Europe will likely mean global companies still have to detail supply-chain emissions

WSJ article by Yusuf Khan and Richard Vanderford on March 6, 2024.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new climate disclosure rule won’t require companies to account for all of their indirect carbon emissions, but many could find themselves facing pressure from investors and other countries to track them anyway.

The SEC on Wednesday approved a new climate-disclosure rule that didn’t include a proposed requirement that companies report emissions from their supply chains and customer use of their products. The agency dropped reporting requirements for these so-called Scope 3 emissions after many businesses complained about the costs and difficulty of compiling those data.

Wednesday’s announcement might afford some businesses some breathing room as they scramble to comply with what is still a landmark shift in how companies report on climate-related metrics. But businesses will still face requirements to report Scope 3 in some jurisdictions, as well as pressure from investors, consumers and business partners.

“A lot of them are impacted by so many different pressures in this space,” said Mallory Thomas, a partner with the risk advisory practice at consulting firm Baker Tilly. “A lot of larger public companies will continue to report their Scope 3.”

Companies increasingly are getting Scope 3 data requests from various sources when they put out requests for proposals and as part of procurement, Thomas said, adding to pressure on them to gather the data even absent a legal requirement.

Scope 3 emissions are easy to understand but difficult to quantify. They include essentially all emissions linked to a company’s operations but outside its direct control, apart from the electricity it purchases. For a retailer, that could include emissions from their suppliers’ manufacturing operations, the transport of goods, business travel for executives and even the recycling of products.

For many companies, Scope 3 emissions are the bulk of their carbon footprint. Coca-Cola’s Scope 3 emissions, for example, account for roughly 90% of its total emissions through transport, travel and packaging. As companies face pressure to lower that footprint, they will have to track those emissions in some way, Thomas said.

Reporting of Scope 3 emissions is on the rise generally. An estimated 53% of companies reported some Scope 3 data, according to a survey of 1,850 executives published by Boston Consulting Group in November. That figure stood at 34% in 2021.

“Scope 3 is often the largest category of emissions and should be included in corporate disclosure,” said Mads Twomey-Madsen, senior vice president of global communications and sustainability at jewelry giant Pandora. Twomey-Madsen added that the company is working with its suppliers to switch to renewable energy and now only sources recycled silver and gold in a bid to cut its emissions by 50% by 2030.

Other countries and jurisdictions also are pushing for more climate-related disclosures from the companies operating in their borders. In the European Union, for example, large companies with more than 250 employees or ones that have €40 million ($43 million) in annual revenue will be required to report their full-scale emissions starting next year.

“European regulation is ahead when it comes to reporting requirements on sustainability, and we expect that many of these standards will gradually appear in the U.S. and other parts of the world as regulators pursue climate change mitigation,” Twomey-Madsen added.

California has also adopted its own climate disclosure law that requires Scope 3 reporting from many large companies.

The SEC’s Scope 3 reporting requirements had been part of a broader SEC proposal, much of which was left intact Wednesday. Public companies will also be required to disclose their exposure to climate-related risks and any plans for transition to a lower-carbon future.

“In terms of the significance and messaging from the SEC, it’s an achievement [that climate] is on the map,” said Eleanor Reeves, partner at law firm Ashurst. “The SEC is pushing this through and putting this on the agenda with climate change being a material financial risk.”

But the carbon accounting requirements in particular received resistance from U.S. companies as well as from within the regulator. Much of the pushback came from companies that said they expected high costs to measure Scope 3. Private companies not directly subject to the rule also complained, saying that they might be roped into the carbon accounting exercises of the large businesses they supply.

The SEC’s decision not to move forward with Scope 3 reporting will alleviate some immediate concerns, said Brad Caswell, a partner at the law firm Linklaters.

“Many public companies will be able to take a breath,” Caswell said. “It is a welcome change for business.”

Since mistakes in a company’s SEC filings can lead to lawsuits from shareholders and regulators, a pause could help companies that are less confident in their numbers.

“Some people, especially here in the U.S., they’re worried about potential litigation if they disclose certain things, and that there could be potential litigation [from the disclosures],” said Sonita Lontoh, an independent board director at the solar services firm Sunrun.

Ashurst’s Reeves added that as reporting develops it could mean significant time taken to finalize estimates. “By the time you finish your reporting cycle you’re on to the next one. In the meantime you need to deliver the improvements you say you need to do.”

But many institutional investors, particularly in Europe, want the emissions data. And, though the SEC could face challenges from business interests that think the agency has overstepped its bounds, others are holding out hope for future climate-related rule-making from the agency.

“We want this rule, as imperfect as it is,” said Steven Rothstein, managing director of the Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Markets, a nonprofit advocacy group. “[But] there are many topics where they will address it, and then they go back and further refine it.”

Overall, the ruling should help climate disclosures be more uniform, according to Wes Bricker, vice chair of U.S. trust solutions at PwC. “Much of the disclosure sits in different places. In addition to comparability there’s also the question of reliability without mandatory disclosure procedures. Investors are well served whenever they bring a holistic approach to the topic of climate risk.”

Rochelle Toplensky contributed to this article.

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"Chaotic World" is a dataset created to study human behavior in chaotic events…

Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film "The Great Dictator" is a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship, primarily targeting the Nazi regime.

Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film "The Great Dictator" is a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship, primarily targeting the Nazi regime.

Happy Sabbat…

Last week, I wrote an article titled "A world that is fragmented and has a delicate glass ceiling"

… Four minor historical details help us comprehend our chaotic world. Still, modern radiography is perhaps in Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film The Great Dictator, a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship. It mainly targets the Nazi regime in this case, but other trends as well.

The extraordinary film Chaotic World is a dataset created to understand human behaviour in chaotic events, which could be relevant to understanding historical details that reflect the complexity of our world.

We can only hope that, like most films with dramatically polarizing situations, they will have a happy ending.

Discover an excerpt from a wonderful film in this post.

According to Reuters, today's events in this chaotic world unfolded as follows:

Four minor historical details help us comprehend the chaotic world in which we live.

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A world that is fragmented and has a delicate glass ceiling…

A world that is fragmented and has a delicate glass ceiling…

* Manual of Ethics"

* Manual of Ethics"

Four minor historical details help us comprehend the chaotic world in which we live.

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"Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

The war of religion in the 21st century…

Russia's war on Ukraine: The religious dimension

“The collapse of the Soviet Union (USSR), which had ruthlessly oppressed religion, led to a significant increase in church membership, religious belief, and practice in many of the successor states”.

The role of religion in Putin's regime…

On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians…

Peace initiatives of religious actors…

Germany and Russia’s volatile relationship in the 20th century

Germany and the Russian invasion of Ukraine…

The tumultuous relationship between Germany and Russia in the 20th century

A Secret But Not a Secret...

The European energy crisis and the consequences for the global natural gas market

Global reshuffle in LNG flows

Figure 1 LNG imports by world region and major importer nation

Figure 2 LNG exports by world region, 2021–2022 variation

European policy response to the crisis

Figure 3 Government response to the energy crisis among selected European countries, September 2021 to January 2023

Conclusions and outlook

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America

There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.

The Failures of America’s Foreign Policy

For the first time in decades, America’s influence on the global stage is declining after poor foreign policy decisions, and we’re running out of time to stop it.

Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit

Ukrainian president unleashes on Beijing, saying it’s helping Moscow threaten countries with higher food and fuel prices to convince them not to attend June 15-16 meeting.

Peace summit call

Criss-crossing the world

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If you're fortunate enough, life can be delightful; otherwise, it can be an ordeal…

Notes from the editor:

According to Le Monde Diplomatique, this month's edition, the world is challenged on this topic:

”In 2019, around 970 million people globally were affected by a mental disorder. By the way, the article titled "Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times" was published in TIME magazine.

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Ukraine: what might have been

Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times

Is Milei real, or is he a fictional character?

"It's not easy for someone to defy the norm and be unpredictable in times of predictability."

The Solar Breakthrough That Could Help the U.S. Competing With China

Biggest investor in U.S. solar manufacturing will use new technology to cut costs

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Emerging technologies, like large-scale battery storage, could be shining a brighter light of hope in our turbulent and shadowed world…

Notes from the editor:

“Today, the New York Times published an article titled "Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Electricity User." These batteries deliver solar power after dark in California and help stabilize grids in other states. The technology is expanding rapidly…

“The future is bright for energy storage,” said Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES Corporation, one of the world’s largest power companies. “If you want more renewables on the grid, you need more batteries. It’s not going to work otherwise.”

Notes from the editors:

Notes from the editors:

"On the day Hamas sowed the seeds of discord in a selfish and wretched manner, with unyielding persistence…"

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Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity