Why This Narrow Strait Next to Iran Is So Critical to the World’s Oil Supply (NYT)
Other articles in this edition:
New Maui Fire Report Shows the Role Hawaiian Electric Power Line Played in Deadly Blaze
Hawaii attorney general report includes transcripts of communications on the day Lahaina was destroyed
The report provides details about high winds and a downed power line on the day catastrophic flames engulfed the historic town last summer.
The Wall Street Journal article by Dan Frosch and Christine Mai-Duc dated April 17, 2024.
Friendly Arab nations urge restraint, but will Netanyahu listen?
“The world awaits Israel's response following Iran's assault, and whether "Bibi" will emulate the restraint shown by a legendary predecessor…
https://www.politico.eu/article/friendly-arab-nations-urge-restraint-but-will-netanyahu-listen/What is happening in August?
After reading the amazing article in The New York Times today: “Miscalculation Led to Escalation in Clash Between Israel and Iran”/ Israeli officials say they didn’t see a strike on a high-level Iranian target in Syria as a provocation, and did not give Washington a heads-up about it until right before it happened…
The Israeli official asserted that the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, (blowing up the building and killing some high-ranking officials) was not a deliberate provocation. If we interpret his words correctly, He meant it as merely a "friendly reminder." The pertinent question, then, is whether it is possible to reach August…
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy CentralEditorial:
The dangers of deviation in the human brain . . .
Humanity faces a 'cosmic discord' with poverty and inflation shaping an uncertain future.
In this new celestial, mysterious, treacherous and absurd theatre, drones and missiles perform a deadly ballet, with movements cutting across the sky with surgical fluidity. Picture this: a world filled with futuristic technology that surpasses our wildest imaginations. Despite all its wonders, however, a void persists. The rain, that magical elixir of life, is nowhere to be seen. Not even a hint of argent droplets to quench the parched earth. It’s a strange new world indeed.
The brewing chaos began on a fateful day—November 17, 2019—in Wuhan, China. It was then that SARS-CoV-2, a deceptively simple collection of proteins and nucleic acids, was first detected. The virus, which can only reproduce within specific living cells, has since been classified as coronavirus by the Royal Spanish Academy.
What brutality has ensued from this unassuming organism? How many loved ones are missing from our side today? And all because of a supposed human error in a laboratory.
With the emergence of the virus, genuine expressions of affection, handshakes and hugs—which do so much good for the so-called soul—were replaced by immaterial faces called emojis, which flow at an infinite density (billions per second), devoid of any merciful human contact. This microscopic life form would cause us to die.
Not even the science fiction genius James Graham Ballard (born in Shanghai, 1930 and died in London, 2009) could have envisioned the impact on the future of a community of individuals living on a small, isolated and ailing planet called Earth.
The pandemic is not a mere health crisis; it has engendered extensive human suffering and economic upheaval, leading to unparalleled levels of inflation on a global scale. This eroding onslaught is born of shortages in food, raw materials and almost of kinds of components rather than an overheating economy.
The question is, how can central banks stabilise the process by raising interest rates?
The results defy expectations.
“Why Better Times (and Big Raises) Haven’t Cured the Inflation Hangover/Frustrated by higher prices, many Pennsylvanians with fresh pay raises and solid finances report a sense of insecurity lingering from the pandemic…
The New York Times article by Talmon Joseph Smith, dated April 15, 2024.https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.htmlCentral banks use their tools—interest rates, quantitative easing (a monetary policy tool that can stimulate or restrain the economy) and forward guidance (a communication tool used by central banks to influence market expectations)—to tame the beast. This time, however, the wild beast seems unyielding, and more than these traditional instruments may be needed to address the complex issues confronting us.
To exacerbate the situation, Russia expanded its incursion into Ukraine in 2023., decreasing the natural gas supply to Europe and causing the price of this fuel to rise. This development has further aggravated the inflationary process, even as it is unrelated to the gas supply issue. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine has also opened the door for other governments to deploy military intervention to address historical border problems in all corners of the world.
A case in point is Israel and Iran’s centuries-old rivalry: fuelled by ideology, territorial disputes and historical grievances but extends, as well, beyond a power struggle. Their actions ripple across borders, affecting their citizens and the delicate balance of global stability. The war in which they engage—subtle yet potent—has the potential to reshape alliances, redraw boundaries and alter the course of history, leaving countless lives shattered in its wake.
Conventional equations have been rendered obsolete. The delicate balance between growth and stability is on the verge of collapse. And so, the world spins—a theatre of intrigue, a canvas of uncertainty.
Israel and Iran are locked in a tense standoff, and as inflation follows an intractable trajectory, humanity wrestles with questions that have no simple answers.
Will diplomacy prevail? Can economies find equilibrium? Or are we witnessing a grand unravelling—a symphony of chaos and consequence?
Why is this phenomenon occurring? The answer lies in deviations in the human mind: addiction to power, the exploitation of political authority for one’s benefit, which leads to the petty accumulation of wealth, with people completely forgetting that what is sufficient and necessary must be an imperative for all members of the human family. The pandemic, the war, inflation—all spawns of these deviations. This is not simply a theoretical concept but a stark reality that we must confront.
While many of us contemplate drones, cruise missiles and whatever else is up whoever’s sleeves, these technologies cast a shadow over the skies of the Middle East, complicating the survival of billions who inhabit this sick planet instead of contributing to a better world.
Only time will tell—the ultimate arbiter, the silent witness to our collective drama.
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The withdrawal of Iraqi forces during Operation Desert Storm led to the burning of Kuwaiti oil wells, which darkened the skies with smoke on March 25, 1991.. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.“Global financial markets have been affected by geopolitical tensions for many years. For example, in the 1970s, conflicts in the Middle East resulted in significant disruptions to oil supply, leading to a surge in oil prices and subsequent economic repercussions on a global scale. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the end of the Cold War. This ushered in a new era in international relations, causing volatility and uncertainty in global markets as investors adapted to the changing geopolitical landscape. The United Kingdom's 2016 referendum on EU membership also had a notable effect on financial markets, with stock market fluctuations, currency depreciation, and heightened investor anxiety stemming from uncertainties surrounding the UK's future relationship with the European Union. The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have further contributed to market volatility, impacting global supply chains, corporate profits, and investor sentiment. Geopolitical events can disrupt financial markets, influencing asset prices, investor confidence, and economic stability.,,
The New York Times article by Karl Russell, Denise Lu, and Anjali Singhvi was updated on July 11, 2019.Twenty percent of the global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water that separates Persian Gulf countries from the rest of the world.
From May 15 to June 15, more than 1,000 tanker ships traveled the strait, according to MarineTraffic, an industry analytics firm. Many were destined for places as far away as China and South Korea.
But the gulf region has been recently rocked by instability, threatening the flow of oil through the strait. Since May, six tankers have been attacked along the strait. On Thursday, British officials said Iranian boats threatened to block one of its vessels from passing through the waterway.
The instability comes amid rising tensions between Iran and the United States and some of its allies. Last year, President Trump abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and has since imposed crippling sanctions on the country. Iran, in defiance, has begun stockpiling and enriching uranium at higher levels.
If tensions persist, disruptions along the strait, where the shipping channel is barely two miles wide, could be felt by dozens of countries that buy Middle Eastern oil in large quantities.
Oil consumption by Asian countries has surged
In the past two decades, oil consumption has exploded in countries like China and India, where expanding middle classes have driven large-scale economic growth. China’s demand for oil has nearly tripled over that period. During that time, the United States remained the world’s biggest consumer of oil, going through tens of millions of barrels a day.
The U.S. has come back as a global oil
player, reducing its reliance on foreign oil
A recent shale-drilling boom in the United States has caused the production of oil and gas in the country to skyrocket, making America less dependent on imports and allowing it to reclaim its role as a leader in the global energy industry. Oil production in the United States grew an extraordinary 17 percent last year.
The surge has changed the dynamics of the world’s oil market, which has long taken its cues from OPEC, the cartel of oil producers that includes Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran.
In previous eras, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz might have spooked the oil market; the market’s response to the recent instability has been relatively muted, in part because of how much oil now comes from the United States.
The American sanctions have
decimated Iran’s oil exports
As its reliance on Middle Eastern oil has decreased, the United States has found itself in a stronger position when dealing with countries like Iran.
The American sanctions, although not adopted by all nations, allow the United States to punish companies and countries that engage in trade with Iran. Oil exports have long been the lifeblood of the Iranian economy.
Some countries were initially granted waivers under the sanctions, but many have stopped buying oil from Iran to avoid the risk of being punished by the United States. Iran’s exports have since plummeted.
Note: Map shows estimated position of all tankers leaving or entering the Persian Gulf from May 15 to June 15. Tankers include all vessels in the general ‘Tanker’ category of Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmitted ship type data, such as crude oil or chemical tankers. Countries visited are based on where port calls were made.Stanley Reed contributed reporting.
Image by Germán & CoNew Maui Fire Report Shows the Role Hawaiian Electric Power Line Played in Deadly Blaze
Hawaii attorney general report includes transcripts of communications on the day Lahaina was destroyed
The report provides details about high winds and a downed power line on the day catastrophic flames engulfed the historic town last summer.
The Wall Street Journal article by Dan Frosch and Christine Mai-Duc dated April 17, 2024.A Maui County emergency dispatcher called Hawaiian Electric early on Aug. 8 last year and said one of the utility’s power lines had broken and started a fire near Lahaina, according to a new report issued by the Hawaii attorney general’s office.
The blaze, which ultimately destroyed the historic Maui town later that day and killed at least 101 people, can be traced back to that morning incident, the report said.
The 376-page report, released by Hawaii Attorney General Anne Lopez on Wednesday, includes transcripts of communication from Hawaiian Electric and emergency responders about where the fire ignited and whether the utility’s power lines had been de-energized in high winds.
While the report doesn’t assign blame for the disaster, it provides the most comprehensive account thus far of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in a century, including the roles that downed power lines and wind played.
Origins of the Lahaina Wildfire
“The origin of the Lahaina Fire can be traced back to 6:35 a.m., when a fast-moving brush fire, later dubbed the ‘Lahaina AM Fire’ ignited,” said the report, which was produced by the Fire Safety Research Institute in Columbia, Md., at the request of Lopez.
Maui firefighters reported that blaze was extinguished and returned to their quarters at around 2 p.m. A second fire was reported at around 2:55 p.m., at the same location as the earlier incident, according to the report.
A representative for Hawaiian Electric said the report’s description of the early-morning fire aligns with what it has said publicly. The company has previously said that its power lines likely caused that fire, but that its lines had been shut off for more than six hours by the time the afternoon blaze erupted. That second blaze, the company stated in response to a lawsuit filed by Maui County, was the one that destroyed Lahaina.
Wednesday’s report doesn’t address the utility’s claims about when its power lines were de-energized.
Even before the Lahaina fire sparked that day, Hawaiian Electric was dealing with damaged poles from high winds and another blaze that had sparked near downed lines on the other side of the island.
“The rate of the fire’s growth would ultimately impede the crew’s work in many areas of Lahaina,” the report said.
Firefighters in deadly danger
Conditions deteriorated so dramatically that water pipes failed, and in some parts of Lahaina, there was no water coming from fire hydrants. Fire crews had to rely on scarce private water tankers instead, the report said.
Some fire crews became trapped. Heat from the fire melted their boots and sealed shut the compartment doors on one engine.
One firefighter used a police SUV to rescue seven colleagues, including an unconscious officer who received CPR, according to the report.ments, saying local officials’ lack of response had slowed the investigation. The county has said it is fully cooperating with the attorney general’s probe.
Shares in Hawaiian Electric Industries have fallen 10.1% over the past five days, amid investor anticipation of the report. They rose 2.63% Wednesday, closing at $9.77.
The Lahaina blaze destroyed more than 2,200 structures and caused an estimated $5.5 billion in damages, displacing more than 6,000 of the town’s 13,000 residents.
As of February, Hawaiian Electric had been named in at least 101 lawsuits by plaintiffs claiming losses related to the fire. Maui County has also been sued by people seeking damages resulting from the fire.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Hawaiian Electric and Maui County knew about the increasing threat of wildfires on the island but took little action. The Journal also reported that large landowners, including the state and Kamehameha Schools, allowed invasive grasses to grow in the hills above Lahaina, which led to the fire’s spread. The state said it has tried to mitigate vegetation with limited funds. Kamehameha Schools said it was committed to being safe stewards of its land.
Hawaiian Electric, the county, the state and Kamehameha Schools all put more than $150 million into a victims’ compensation fund for families of the deceased who agree not to bring wrongful death suits.
Maui’s fire department issued its own report a day earlier
In its own report released Tuesday, the Maui fire department said it lacked sufficient water tankers and fire engines to combat the Lahaina blaze. That report, produced by the Western Fire Chiefs Association, also said the department did minimal work to staff up and preposition resources amid warnings of strong winds that posed a high wildfire risk.
It said firefighters remained on scene for more than five hours after containing the earlier Lahaina brush fire, “using copious amounts of water” and firefighting foam to make sure it wouldn’t reignite.
At a press conference Tuesday, Maui County Fire Chief Brad Ventura painted a picture of a fully staffed fire department facing impossible odds against a fierce wind-swept disaster.
“No training is going to overcome what they faced that day,” Ventura told reporters.
What other reports about the Lahaina fire are still in the works?
Two additional reports by the Fire Safety Research Institute—one on how Maui’s fire protection systems functioned during the Lahaina blaze and one on recommendations for the future—are expected to be released later this year by the Hawaii attorney general’s office.
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is conducting a separate investigation into how the fire began at the request of Maui County fire officials and is expected to release its findings soon