Prigozhin’s lesson for Trump & Co: Don’t trust Putin’s promises…

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Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Macron should all be thinking at least twice after Prigozhin's death about pinning hopes on deals with Putin.

POLITICO EU BY VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA, AUGUST 25, 2023

KYIV — U.S. Republican presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy has joined ex-President Donald Trump in believing that there are deals in good faith to be made with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

That’s a position that was also taken last December by French President Emmanuel Macron, who held out the prospect of negotiating security guarantees for Russia with Putin under a new security architecture for Europe.

You try telling Yevgeny Prigozhin that the Kremlin keeps its word in deals. Two months ago, after Prigozhin’s abortive coup, Russia’s security services said they wouldn’t be pressing charges and Prigozhin was tricked into a false sense that he had received security guarantees. Putin’s real verdict was served up as an explosion in a private jet at 28,000 feet.

Any Ukrainian can tell you Russia’s assurances that it’s not going to invade are worth zero. Moscow was meant to respect Ukrainian sovereignty and grant Kyiv security guarantees according to the terms of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine handed over its nuclear arsenal, but Putin has shown no interest in abiding by that international agreement.

Prigozhin sure did no good for Ukraine — sending his convict recruits into “meat wave” attacks at the battle of Bakhmut. His killing, however, may provide a sobering, cautionary lesson for politicians around the world, who glibly believe that you can trust Putin and do deals with him.

“There is no way anyone can reach an agreement with a serial liar like Putin and expect it to be respected. The U.N. Charter, the Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty, the Minsk Agreements, the Black Sea Grain Initiative — how many more treaties must Putin violate before everyone realizes that talking to him is pointless?” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told POLITICO. 

Ramaswamy recently explained to CNN he would freeze the current lines of control and make a commitment that NATO will not admit Ukraine. He said the U.S. can even push Ukraine to make concessions as it “is paying the bills.” In return, he would just ask Putin to withdraw from military alliances with China.

And he would trust Putin on all this?

“Whether he is dealing with his own war-criminal commander or an outside power, the Russian president will use any means necessary to achieve his goals. Only a solid Russian military defeat in Ukraine can bring about a just and lasting peace,” Kuleba argued. “Those who argue that Ukraine should agree to a quick cease-fire, a concession of territory, or freezing the conflict are not seeking an end to the war. They are inviting Ukraine to die. It is the path to a larger war after Putin is given a respite.”  

For a year, Ukraine won an opportunity to transport its grain to the world and stabilize food prices, but Russia kept claiming the grain deal should include more perks for the Kremlin and was constantly complaining about the ineffectiveness of the initiative, until it withdrew in July 2023.

Since then, the Kremlin has shelled Ukrainian ports and grain terminals, destroying food that was destined for emerging nations.

“This is a clear demonstration that negotiating anything with Putin is like asking a serial rapist to promise he won’t do it again. This does not work, and Prigozhin is evidence of that,” Ukrainian political scientist Mykola Davydiuk told POLITICO.

In public, Putin claims he is ready for peace negotiations, and that the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine are the ones pressing to continue the war. However, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov on August 2 said those negotiations must be on Russian terms. On August 6, he claimed there were no grounds for peace and that Russia wants to keep the five Ukrainian regions it has illegally annexed, even though it does not fully control four of them.  

“For me, the attempt to annex part of the Ukrainian territories was yet another confirmation of the Kremlin’s complete inadequacy in assessing both the political and the military situation,” Ukraine’s State Security and Defense Secretary Oleksii Danilov told POLITICO. 

Ukrainian officials warned the Kremlin that the decision to annex Ukrainian regions in 2022 would destroy the possibility of ending the war at the negotiating table. But the Kremlin did it anyway.  

“Negotiations and concessions to Putin will be a geostrategic fiasco for the West, and will start the countdown to the beginning of the anti-democratic counter-revolution and the advance of autocracies along the entire front from Latin America to China,” Danilov said.

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Putin Had Every Reason to Want Prigozhin Gone (NYT)

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The Fate of the Romanov Family: How Did Rasputin Play a Role in Their Demise?

Conspiracy... The dissatisfaction towards the Romanovs and Rasputin's control peaked as Russia confronted serious socioeconomic difficulties and the looming shadow of World War I. A group of aristocrats and political figures, keen for change, devised a malevolent scheme to eliminate Rasputin and weaken the Romanovs' hold on power. Rasputin's participation in scandalous affairs and meddling in political affairs served as the impetus for this plot to gain momentum.

Although Grigori Rasputin's role in the fate of the Romanov family is undeniable, it is crucial to consider the wider context surrounding their demise. The destiny of the Romanovs: the political and social atmosphere of early 20th century Russia, coupled with Rasputin's mysterious influence, established the setting for the tragic downfall of the Romanov dynasty. Understanding this intricate interplay of factors enables us to comprehend the vast impact Rasputin had on the downfall of the last imperial family of Russia.
The Romanov dynasty, who were the final imperial rulers of Russia, faced a tragic and premature fate during the tumultuous years of the Russian Revolution. The complex web of events leading to their demise included a plot that implicated the mysterious persona of Grigori Rasputin, a mystic and purported counselor to Tsarina Alexandra. In this article, we examine the events that occurred and shed light on how Rasputin's influence ultimately impacted the fate of the Romanov family.

Grigori "Rasputin" appeared in early 20th-century Russia, presenting himself as a self-proclaimed holy man and healer. His alleged ability to cure Tsarevich Alexei's severe hemophilia won Rasputin the favor of Tsarina Alexandra, who desperately searched for a cure for her son's condition. The Tsarina's unwavering trust in Rasputin eventually resulted in his growing influence over the Romanov family, causing great dissatisfaction among the Russian aristocracy and political elite. As Rasputin became more ingrained within the Russian court, whispers about his immoral lifestyle and manipulation of the Tsarina started to spread. His unethical behaviors and debauchery stained the reputation of the Romanov family, exacerbating the discontent brewing within Russia. Concerns regarding Rasputin's true intentions and whether he was leveraging his power for personal gain were raised due to his immense influence over the Tsarina.

On the evening of December 29, 1916, Rasputin was invited to the residence of Prince Felix Yusupov, one of the primary conspirators, pretending to be a friendly gathering. Little did Rasputin know, he had walked into a carefully designed trap. Poisoned cakes and wine were offered to him, but as Rasputin showed no signs of being affected by the poison, he was shot several times. Despite sustaining serious injuries, Rasputin persevered and fought back until he ultimately met his fate by drowning in frigid waters.

The Fall of the Romanovs... while Rasputin's death briefly halted the rising opposition, it failed to rescue the Romanovs. The plot against Rasputin compounded the public's increasing disillusionment with the Romanov dynasty and fueled demands for reform. In 1917, the Russian Revolution erupted, resulting in Tsar Nicholas II's abdication and the eventual execution of the Romanov family.

By Germán & Co

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NYT by Tatiana Stanovaya, August 26, 2023

Ms. Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, writes about Russian domestic politics and foreign policy.

Very few were taken aback by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s presumed death, even if the means — plunging from the sky in a plane crash — were undeniably dramatic. Such an eventuality had been widely discussed in both Russian and Western circles ever since the mercenary leader’s short-lived mutiny in June. No matter that Mr. Prigozhin subsequently met with the Kremlin and seemed to come and go where he pleased. To many, it was only a matter of time until he got his comeuppance.

Wednesday’s events remain shrouded in mystery. Was Mr. Prigozhin’s jet shot down, or was there an explosion onboard? To what extent were the Russian authorities and, more pointedly, President Vladimir Putin himself involved in the incident? If Mr. Prigozhin was assassinated, was it a snap decision or a well thought-out plan conceived after the rebellion? The Kremlin, for its part, denies any involvement in the crash. Whatever the truth, it’s clear that Mr. Putin had ample reason to wish for Mr. Prigozhin’s demise, and not just as a matter of rehabilitating his reputation.

Mr. Putin believes fervently in a powerful state. Western audiences often downplay this fundamental conviction, emphasizing instead Mr. Putin’s personal interests and individual priorities. It’s true, of course, that there’s a large dose of self-interest in the president’s conduct. But one of Mr. Putin’s gravest nightmares is the state becoming vulnerable, unable to address domestic challenges and on the brink of disintegration. That’s precisely what Mr. Prigozhin threatened. For that transgression, he may have paid with his life.

It’s a popular notion that Wagner’s ventures were all directed by the Kremlin, but in fact Mr. Prigozhin was consistently the driving force. He proactively identified areas where Russia was faltering or ineffective and offered his services as a stopgap, always in a way that could be construed as serving the national interest. Though Mr. Prigozhin collaborated closely with the Kremlin, he pursued his own private priorities. Yet while Mr. Putin undoubtedly sanctioned and funded these endeavors, for him the primacy of the state always took precedence. Nothing could be allowed to undermine it. Mr. Prigozhin would be permitted his ventures as long as he remained subservient to the state apparatus.

That bargain held for years. But the war in Ukraine unsettled the balance. Mr. Prigozhin, sensing an opportunity to advance his career, began to challenge the military leadership. When the conflict between the two became untenable, Mr. Putin’s preference was plain: He unambiguously sided with the army. In January, he emphasized that the war ought to be fought in line with the general staff’s strategy, a clear hint that Wagner should be subordinate. By June, all Wagner fighters who wished to remain in Ukraine were expected to formalize contracts with the defense ministry and accept the supervision of its generals. It proved to be the final straw. Rebellion soon followed.

It was a humiliating blow to Mr. Putin’s regime. The pain came less from the betrayal by Mr. Prigozhin, who’d always been erratic, than from Mr. Putin’s personal responsibility for the disaster. On the state’s dime, the president had nurtured an entity that he didn’t keep in check. The mutiny, following Mr. Putin’s inability to manage the escalating tensions between the defense ministry and Wagner, was a direct result of this fundamental failure.

The political toll was considerable. In the fallout, Mr. Putin found himself yielding to Mr. Prigozhin, compromising his own stature and enduring public indignity. He was now confronted with a thorny dilemma: how to dismantle a private army without provoking political backlash or violence. In the rebellion’s aftermath, the Kremlin’s primary concern was to neutralize Wagner, both politically and militarily, with the aim of restoring the stability of the state.

The first step was to play for time. Under the agreement that quelled the mutiny, Mr. Prigozhin secured his freedom and Wagner members were protected from being charged for their participation, astonishingly enabling them to travel freely as if nothing had happened. This approach, in hindsight, appears logical: Mr. Putin aimed to mollify Mr. Prigozhin, giving him the sense that he was irreplaceable and that he enjoyed the state’s protection.

This was critical in ensuring Mr. Prigozhin’s exit from Russia. That allowed the clamping down on some of his Russian assets and the stripping back of access to lucrative contracts (even though his business did not collapse entirely). More important, Mr. Prigozhin’s departure was a prelude to the disbanding of Wagner. The most dedicated Wagner troops, a contingent of around 5,000, were coerced to relocate to Belarus under a new leader, the loyal and compliant Andrei Troshev; the group’s heavy artillery was returned to the defense ministry; and the hesitant were forced either to enlist with the military or to return home. In Africa and Syria, Wagner forces have been put under close oversight with a plan to gradually absorb their projects into the security services and defense ministry.

Throughout this initial phase of drawing down Wagner, Mr. Prigozhin’s involvement was deemed necessary. His input ensured smooth access to key individuals, facilitated personnel assessments and aided decision-making. But once his fighters relocated from Russia, effectively disarmed and preoccupied with training Belarusian forces, things changed. He became only a living testament to the state’s frailty and an acute reminder of Mr. Putin’s flawed handling of the very behemoth he helped create. From the Kremlin’s perspective, there ceased to be a point to his existence.

Regardless of the actual cause of Mr. Prigozhin’s reported demise, the Russian public is sure to see it as an act of retribution and revenge. Few will doubt Mr. Putin’s involvement, a perception that aligns well with the image of a strongman president. Some analysts argue there are potential drawbacks. First, Mr. Putin showed his weakness in failing to respect the guarantees of safety he supposedly made to Mr. Prigozhin. Second, there could be backlash from patriotic circles, outraged over the blatant execution of someone they viewed as a war hero. Third, Wagner soldiers, surely appalled by the assassination, could stage another rebellion.

These concerns seem overblown. After all, there were no explicit, public guarantees of Mr. Prigozhin’s safety, only assurances — which were fulfilled — that he would leave Russia for Belarus safely and that the criminal charges against him would be dropped. What’s more, Mr. Prigozhin’s popularity plummeted after the mutiny as many former supporters denounced his behavior. As for Wagner, a widely circulated video that purported to depict its commanders vowing vengeance has been debunked, with official channels instead urging restraint.

While Mr. Prigozhin’s death would not entirely restore Mr. Putin’s standing as a decisive leader — a destroyed business jet is hardly the most persuasive symbol of strength — it could offer some solace to hard-liners concerned about the president becoming out of touch, hesitant or unable to manage his own circle. For Russia’s elites, the incident serves as a clear warning. Challenging the regime, whatever your achievements, inevitably leads to your downfall.

TIME BY JUSTIN WORLAND, AUGUST 24, 2023 

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News Round-Up, August 24, 2023

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Thanks to all for the amazing support... 106K on Twitter in the last 28 days...

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Most read…

How Oil and Tech Giants Came to Rule a Vital Climate Industry

Generous government support helps carbon removal play a crucial role in neutralizing emissions

WSJ by Amrith Ramkumar, Aug. 24, 2023 

Opinion: India’s brilliant moon landing illuminates Russia’s drastic decline

TWP by David Von Drehle, Deputy opinion editor and columnist, August 23, 2023 

Who won, who lost and who fizzled in the first Republican debate

Ron DeSantis was a non-factor as Republicans piled on Vivek Ramaswamy, instead.

By POLITICO STAFF, August 24, 2023

Washington drafts proposal for Venezuela's oil sanction easing

Reuters by Marianna Parraga, Vivian Sequera and Timothy Gardner, August 24, 2023

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve

US economy has remained unexpectedly robust – but markets could be volatile again

The Telegraph, TOM STEVENSON24 August 2023

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Climeworks deploys a carbon-removal technology known as direct-air capture and sells carbon credits to big companies. PHOTO: ARND WIEGMANN/REUTERS

How Oil and Tech Giants Came to Rule a Vital Climate Industry

Generous government support helps carbon removal play a crucial role in neutralizing emissions

WSJ by Amrith Ramkumar, Aug. 24, 2023 

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The technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere is unproven at scale and the economics are just taking shape. What has become clear this year is that carbon removal is now the realm of giant companies and big government support.

The Energy Department this month committed $1.2 billion to create two carbon-removal hubs in Texas and Louisiana, home to a large portion of the U.S. fossil-fuel industry. The biggest competitor in the Texas project will be Occidental Petroleum, which has its own billion-dollar bet on the technology.

Three deals this year cemented corporate involvement in the sector: Exxon Mobil is buying one of the biggest operators of pipelines that move carbon to sites where it can be stashed underground; Occidental is buying one of the two most established carbon-removal technology companies; and the other experienced carbon-removal startup completed the first third-party verified process and cashed in on it by selling carbon credits to Microsoft and other big companies.

Climeworks has created a giant vacuum cleaner to capture carbon dioxide from the air, helping companies offset their emissions. WSJ visits the facility to see how it traps the gas for sale to clients such as Coca-Cola, which uses it in fizzy drinks. Composite: Clément Bürge

The most prominent carbon-removal technology favored by the government, Occidental and these startups is called direct-air capture. It employs vacuum-like devices and fans to suck in air, pull out the carbon and bury it underground. The process is a man-made variation of what trees do every day. 

It differs from carbon capture, which grabs carbon from smokestacks. This effort is considered easier because those emissions are far denser with carbon than the open air.

The Energy Department money, which is a record investment in the sector and the largest from a government, is designed to create an industry that is seen as vital to limiting climate change. Even the most optimistic scenarios of the transition away from fossil fuels don’t forecast sufficient emissions progress without removing some of what is there already and mitigating unavoidable emissions in the future. 

“We have to get these projects up and running so there’s a commercial wave that follows them,” said David Crane, the Energy Department’s undersecretary for infrastructure. He previously was chief executive of power-generation company NRG. 

If funded and completed, the two carbon-removal hubs would remove roughly 1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere annually and store it underground. That amount is equivalent to the annual emissions of about 220,000 gasoline-powered cars, which is a fraction of what is needed overall to limit climate change. Each project would be roughly 250 times bigger than the only direct-air capture facility currently in commercial operation. 

The Energy Department is also trying to spur a feasible business model for the industry by pledging to pay $35 million for carbon that the companies remove from the air. These are the same type of carbon-credit purchases that Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase have made recently to kick-start the industry. That funding also isn’t limited to direct-air capture, potentially boosting other promising approaches. 

Large fossil-fuel companies have long been interested in technologies that remove carbon from the atmosphere because they could neutralize the emissions their products create.

Occidental, the most aggressive fossil-fuel giant in carbon removal, is spending billions of dollars on the effort. Chief Executive Vicki Hollub has said direct-air capture would enable the company to keep producing oil for decades. 

The company said recently that it is buying one of its technology partners on the Texas hub, startup Carbon Engineering, for $1.1 billion, the largest such transaction in the industry. 

Many climate analysts remain skeptical of carbon removal, worrying that it is too expensive while fearing it could give fossil-fuel producers a social license to continue polluting. Critics argue that removing carbon from the atmosphere just to offset new carbon pumped in by fossil fuels won’t help fight climate change.

“It really does raise some fundamental questions about the political sustainability of these efforts,” said Danny Cullenward, a research fellow at American University’s Institute for Carbon Removal Law and Policy. “People are increasingly assuming that oil production and [direct-air capture] go together. That’s not healthy if your goal is to separate those things.”

Cumulative amount of carbon-dioxide removals completed, monthly.

Source: CDR.fyiNote: Data provider aggregates data from public sources and private sector

Direct-air capture will have a crucial role in helping the world reach its climate goals, Hollub said in a written statement, adding that her company’s selection shows that it has the technology and project expertise to neutralize carbon emissions. 

A White House spokeswoman declined to comment.

Exxon Mobil, meanwhile, agreed in July to pay almost $5 billion for Denbury, a pipeline operator that moves carbon dioxide. Denbury’s pipelines typically carry carbon captured in smokestacks rather than the open air, but its infrastructure could be used for both efforts. The company also injects carbon into aging oil fields to boost output using the process known as enhanced oil recovery. 

The carbon-removal hubs were funded in the 2021 infrastructure law. The companies have to contribute funds equivalent to the government grants and would be responsible for any cost overruns. The Energy Department will soon award billions of dollars for hydrogen hubs using more infrastructure-law funding, another step to jump-start a critical climate sector.

The key company in the Louisiana carbon-removal hub is Climeworks, which runs the world’s first commercial direct-air capture facility in Iceland. In addition to selling credits to big companies, the company raised $650 million privately from large investors early last year, another financial milestone for the industry.

Businesses are eager to mitigate their own emissions, and popular carbon credits such as forest preservation or renewable energy have been criticized for failing to reduce carbon in the atmosphere. 

Carbon removal has become increasingly popular for businesses because it provides certainty that companies are helping the climate, though many consumers remain hesitant. 

“There’s no illusion that the taxpayers rose as one and asked for a direct-air capture program,” said the Energy Department’s Crane.

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Indian students and families gather to watch the Birla Industrial and Technological Museum (BITM) live telecast of the Chandrayaan-3 Mission landing on the moon in Kolkata, India, on Wednesday. (Piyal Adhikary, EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

Opinion: India’s brilliant moon landing illuminates Russia’s drastic decline

TWP by David Von Drehle, Deputy opinion editor and columnist, August 23, 2023 

India’s Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander arrived right on schedule near the moon’s south pole on Wednesday, ready to release a robotic laboratory to explore this little-known real estate. The dark side of the moon, as it is called (especially by fans of Pink Floyd), is home to high hopes for many of those who dream of interplanetary travel. They believe the south polar region might contain abundant water that could be used to make rocket fuel at a future permanent base, allowing the moon to serve as a sort of truck stop en route to Mars.

Others speculate that the frozen, shadowed dark side is rich in minerals needed for high-tech applications on Earth. For them, the Indian rover will be a 21st-century version of the pick-wielding miner of American frontier lore — scratching away in hopes of starting a gold rush.

It’s a marvelous achievement for India’s space program — and symbolic of an important moment in geopolitics. For the successful landing came just days after a Russian mission to the same region went haywire and smashed into the lunar surface like a hammer coming down on the last nail in the coffin of Russia’s decline.

Hyperbole? Not for the nation that made its space program a billboard for its rise to global influence. As the dominant republic of the Soviet Union, Russia was first to put a satellite into orbit, first to send a human into space and first to land a spacecraft on the moon, among other pioneering missions. Luna 9 touched down lightly on the dust of the lunar Oceanus Procellarum (the “Ocean of Storms”) in February 1966, more than three years before the United States finally surpassed the Soviets by landing two men on the moon and bringing them home safely.

But 1966 was a long time ago. It’s the year Hewlett-Packard developed its first computer. It’s the year Fresca and Twister debuted. Frank Sinatra released “Strangers in the Night,” dooby, dooby, doo. Today’s Russia is trying to replicate an achievement from 1966 — and failing. It speaks volumes about the reckless waste of a once-great nation’s capabilities.

Of course, there’s nothing to learn from the lunar crash site that the world hasn’t seen already on the battlefields of Ukraine, where the once-fearsome Russian tank columns were wiped out by Ukrainian volunteers, or in the looting of the Russian economy, which has seen pitiful net growth (in constant dollars) since the collapse of the Soviet Union more than 30 years ago. Here, too, a comparison with India is illuminating: India’s economy was about half the size of Russia’s when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989. Today, India’s economy is 50 percent bigger than Russia’s. Forget about keeping pace with the United States; Russia can’t keep up with India.

The point is important because the modern world was designed with Russia as a major pillar. China’s rise has somewhat mediated the instability created by the pillar’s collapse. But China has its own mismanagement problems that have turned a roaring economy into a sputtering mess. Poorly run countries can be dangerous, as Russia has shown in Ukraine. They latch on to bad ideas and pursue them past the point of failure. When this happens to a major nation, the consequences are felt worldwide.

Russia’s demise as a world power and China’s suddenly clouded future demand new thinking from Winston Churchill’s “indispensable nation,” the United States. Americans and their leaders have been egging each other on for some 20 years in a race to the depths of despair. On both the left and the right, a narrative of national corruption and decline has taken hold. Don’t look to the center for leadership: Everyone there is ducking and covering.

This won’t do, because the world is once again turning to the United States for stability and competence. Russia’s appalling brutalization of Ukraine has driven Europe more firmly toward NATO than ever before. China’s serial missteps have strengthened U.S. alliances throughout the eastern Pacific. Fortunately, the United States has the economic vitality to take on the challenges. Despite sharply higher interest rates to battle unwelcome inflation, the world’s largest economy continues to grow, and is once again nearly 40 percent larger than second place. While other nations attempt to visit the moon, U.S.-led missions have flown a helicopter on Mars, placed a telescope in deep space, probed the weather on Jupiter and sailed beyond the solar system.

Voters should demand — and leaders should deliver — an end to the sniveling and doom-saying that have passed for public discourse in the United States for most of a generation. This can be another American century, in which more people in more places enjoy more freedom and more prosperity than ever before. We just have to be worthy of it. Our rivals are stumbling when they aren’t cutting their own throats; for us, the sky’s the limit.

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The debate may have reset the race a bit, but only for candidates not named Donald Trump. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Who won, who lost and who fizzled in the first Republican debate

Ron DeSantis was a non-factor as Republicans piled on Vivek Ramaswamy, instead.

By POLITICO STAFF, August 24, 2023

Largely ignored for two hours by his lower-polling rivals on Wednesday, the Florida governor watched as the first debate of the GOP primary turned into a pile on Vivek Ramaswamy, the 38-year-old biotech entrepreneur rising in polls.

Mike Pence tangled with Ramaswamy. So did Nikki Haley and Chris Christie. DeSantis, still polling second to former President Donald Trump — but with his campaign floundering — was all but reduced to an afterthought, while Pence, Haley and Christie dominated the stage.

The debate may have reset the race a bit, but only for candidates not named Trump. Who came out the best? Who had a bad night? And did we even learn anything new?

We asked five POLITICO campaign reporters for their takeaways from the first Republican primary debate of 2024.

Who had the best night? Who had the worst night?

Natalie Allison: He took all the hits — seriously, almost all of them — but Vivek Ramaswamy got all he could have wanted out of tonight: attention and the opportunity to reinforce the idea the party’s establishment is out to get him. If you were a Republican who still hadn’t seen a clip of Ramaswamy on social media or TV, you learned who he was tonight. And the fact all knives were out for him shows that the other candidates see him not just as an annoyance, but as a threat right now as they’re trying to break through themselves.

Ron DeSantis’ team, for what it’s worth, was thrilled he wasn’t the one under fire (“didn’t get caught up in the infighting,” is what one of his campaign advisers noted to me afterward), following two months straight of negative headlines, disappointing polling and much more scrutiny and criticism than the rest of the field.

It wasn’t a particularly great night for Tim Scott. He made sure to talk about his childhood, mentioning as often as he could his hardworking single mother to explain how his family pulled themselves up from a difficult place. But none of his answers were that catchy. Recently, Scott has been viewed as someone in the running to overtake DeSantis for the No. 2 spot, but he will need to make more of an impression the next time he’s on stage.

Sally Goldenberg: Mike Pence had the best night. Pence — who has struggled to break out of the pack and was eviscerated by Tucker Carlson in a one-on-one interview this summer — showed more than a little fight with Ramaswamy. He distinguished himself with a clearly articulated foreign policy position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, courting traditional conservatives. He reminded viewers of his Christian faith, quoting from the Bible and appealing to anti-abortion groups with his support for a federal ban. Finally, he got the support of nearly every opponent on stage for his actions certifying the 2020 election, despite the violent reaction to his decision at the time.

Bottom-tier candidates Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum didn’t have the break-through moments they needed — and with the next debate rules setting higher polling thresholds, that may be the last time we see them on stage. Similarly, Tim Scott did not do enough to make a case for himself as the religious conservative in the race.

Steven Shepard: Given the stakes for his sputtering campaign, DeSantis had the best night. He was able to articulate his positions on the issues central to his candidacy. He didn’t face the ire of the others on stage the way Ramaswamy did.

Even when the moderators tried to stoke fights between some of the candidates and DeSantis, they mostly took a pass on punching up at the Florida governor, who was the top-polling candidate on the stage.

Wednesday night didn’t fix all of DeSantis’ problems. But if he does end up back on his feet, it will be a big reason why.

Look, Ramaswamy was the center of attention — and maybe attention is a good thing. But he was at it with a different volume and level of caffeination than everyone else, and the candidates who went after him landed some body blows, whether it was Pence calling him a “rookie” or Haley hitting him on Ukraine.

Adam Wren: Pence had a great night. He seemed to win the exchange over what is supposed to be his biggest weakness: His actions on Jan. 6. Christie, Scott and DeSantis all sided with Pence and his actions on that day. DeSantis tried to sidestep the question, but Pence brought him to heel. “There’s no more important duty,” Pence said. “So answer the question.” He is struggling in the polls, but he projected an adult-in-the-room presence that his campaign has been aiming at for months now.

Mike Pence garnered the support of nearly every opponent on stage for his actions certifying the 2020 election. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Meanwhile, it seemed like Scott disappeared for stretches throughout the night. And Ramaswamy was clearly a bigger target for the field than DeSantis. That tells you a lot about how the rest of the field assesses the calculus of the race.

Holly Otterbein: All in all, it was a pretty good night for President Joe Biden. Most Republicans on stage raised their hands when asked if they would support Trump in the general election even if he was convicted. Several spoke in favor of a national abortion ban. Those are issues that play in a GOP primary. But they are vulnerabilities next November.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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An oil rig is seen on Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela October 14, 2022. REUTERS

Washington drafts proposal for Venezuela's oil sanction easing

Reuters by Marianna Parraga, Vivian Sequera and Timothy Gardner, August 24, 2023

CARACAS/WASHINGTON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - U.S. officials are drafting a proposal that would ease sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, allowing more companies and countries to import its crude oil, if the South American nation moves toward a free and fair presidential election, according to five people with knowledge of the plans.

Washington has been trying to encourage negotiations between President Nicolas Maduro and the political opposition over elections in Venezuela and other demands. Sanctions were imposed following Maduro's 2018 reelection, which many Western nations considered a sham.

Easing sanctions has been a carrot held out in the past by the U.S., but which so far has resulted in very few authorizations, including one to Chevron Corp (CVX.N) that has allowed the firm to expand operations in Venezuela and export its oil to the United States since November.

Washington continues to insist that further easing will depend on progress toward elections. U.S. President Joe Biden's government is prepared to provide Venezuela sanctions relief if the country moves to restore democracy, the White House said on Wednesday.

"Should Venezuela take concrete actions toward restoring democracy, leading to free and fair elections, we are prepared to provide corresponding sanctions relief," a spokesperson for the White House's National Security Council said.

A new round of talks began last November in Mexico including Maduro's representatives, the opposition and U.S. officials, but have shown little progress. A White House spokesperson said Venezuela has not yet taken the necessary steps to restore democracy.

The White House declined to comment on the oil sanctions reframing proposal. Venezuela's negotiation leader, Jorge Rodriguez, and the U.S. State Department did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

MORE OIL FOR MORE PEOPLE

The U.S. is this time considering a specific offer to reframe oil sanctions on the country so crude buyers in Europe and other regions also can resume imports of Venezuelan oil in a structured, organized way, the people said.

The proposal could require Biden to amend U.S. executive orders on Venezuela issued by his predecessor Donald Trump in 2019, or issue new ones.

If parties agree to it and to a series of political demands including the presidential election, the new sanction framework would only maintain restrictions to trade Venezuelan oil with countries including China, Iran and Russia, which are under separate U.S. sanctions, they added.

An early version of the proposal was rejected in July by Dinorah Figuera, head of Venezuela's opposition-led National Assembly which controls the country's foreign assets, after discussions with Venezuela's main opposition parties, two of the people said.

The reason for rejecting the draft proposal, which could become one of the powerful U.S. negotiation tools in future meetings with Maduro's envoys, was the lack of concrete steps by Maduro so far toward fair elections in the country, two of the people said.

Figuera's office did not reply to a request for comment.

Rodriguez said in July that Venezuela would not accept international observation for any elections. The government has also banned prominent politicians from participating in an eventual election as opposition candidates.

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No-one should expect any immediate talk about rate cuts, even if there is less finger-wagging from Jerome Powell this year CREDIT: Jacquelyn Martin/AP

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve

US economy has remained unexpectedly robust – but markets could be volatile again

The Telegraph, TOM STEVENSON24 August 2023

As we head into the bank holiday weekend, the last days of the summer will as usual be dominated by a smallish gathering of very important people in a high-end fly-fishing resort in Wyoming. The annual Jackson Hole economic symposium might look like a talking shop for policy wonks, but it has evolved over the past 45 years into a key market event.

All investors’ eyes will be on this beautiful spot in the Rocky Mountains when Fed chair Jerome Powell stands up to speak at 3pm UK time tomorrow.

This year’s summit is particularly important because it is expected to provide guidance on the key market questions facing investors today. What happens next for US interest rates and when? Is the Fed done with the remarkable monetary tightening cycle that has overshadowed markets for the past couple of years?

And if it is, how long before the US central bank believes it can safely call time on the post-pandemic inflation surge and take its foot off the interest rate brake?

We should know a lot more by the weekend. But if last year is any guide, markets could be volatile as investors dig into the details of Mr Powell’s keynote speech.

A year ago, the S&P 500 hit an air pocket as markets assessed a short but punchy message from the Fed chair. His words took the wind out of the sails of a powerful rally in the middle of 2022’s bear market, setting up the final down leg to October’s low point.

What he said was really just a statement of the blindingly obvious – that getting on top of inflation would require higher for longer interest rates, a slowdown in the economy and rising unemployment. Just as had been the case 40 years earlier when Powell’s predecessor at the Fed, Paul Volcker, won his battle with inflation, victory would not be painless, he said.

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US inflation was transitory after all

US CPI index, three month percentage change

Volcker casts a long shadow over Jackson Hole. When the symposium moved to its current home in 1982, it was in large part to ensure that the Fed chair would attend the event. He was a keen fly fisherman when he wasn’t busy clearing up the mess left by former chair Arthur Burns.

It was Burns who allowed prices to spiral out of control in the post-Vietnam inflation crisis of the 1970s. Powell’s task is arguably easier than Volcker’s, but no less important. He knows that his legacy, and the credibility of the central bank he heads, is at stake this week.

Powell’s speech is not the only thing happening at Jackson Hole this week. The summit is an opportunity for policy makers from around the world to get together to discuss the weighty matters of the day, and this year’s focus is on “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”.

So, there will no doubt be plenty on China, Russia, AI and much else. But what most investors are tuning in for is the subtle hints that Powell’s carefully crafted words will convey. They will be hoping for something more reassuring than last year’s nine-minute cold shower.

What should we expect this year? Things have certainly moved on in 12 months but not exactly as Powell or the markets might have anticipated. The reason the market reacted so badly to Powell’s words a year ago was the not unreasonable assumption that the Fed was prepared to push the US into recession if that is what was required.

But the US economy has proved unexpectedly robust since last August. And investors have had to get used to a different narrative. A year ago, it seemed plausible that the Fed would tighten hard but then pivot rapidly to easier policy as it became clear that it had squeezed too aggressively. Today, with a still hot labour market and a US consumer that refuses to lie down, it remains valid to ask whether the Fed has squeezed hard enough.

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Americans earn more

 Average wages in G7 countries

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The run up in bond yields this week indicates to me that the market thinks interest rates could rise a bit further yet. With the ten-year yield at 4.3pc and the two-year touching 5pc, investors seem to be pricing in another quarter point hike, perhaps at the November meeting.

And no-one really expects rates to start coming down again until next summer at the earliest in the absence of a more significant slowdown than now looks likely. The relationship between those short and long bond yields – the yield curve – continues to point to a recession, but there’s precious little evidence on the ground.

The trajectory of interest rates this year has been a salutary reminder of the risks of trying to time the market. At the start of 2023, it looked reasonable to expect the Fed to be toying with a first interest rate cut by now. The pivot has been pushed out by at least a year and the peak will be higher than previously thought.

The idea was that government bonds would be a good investment thanks to the double whammy of locking in an attractive yield and then benefiting from a capital gain as rates started to fall again. The thinking looks good, the timing less so.

The minutes from the last Fed meeting gave us a clue to the Fed chair’s current thinking. “We’ll be comfortable cutting rates when we’re comfortable cutting rates, and that won’t be this year I don’t think”, was how he framed it.

So, no-one should expect any immediate talk about rate cuts, even if there is less finger-wagging from Powell this year. He’s done the hard part for any central banker, managing expectations. Time to enjoy the mountains.

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EXCLUSIVE: "The Wagner Mercenary Chief's Fall: A Twisted Tale of Power and Betrayal"

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Russia's mysterious summer solstice of 2023 took an unforeseen turn today as the infamous "Wagner's Little Mad Army" experienced a significant setback in the form of a "Röhm-Putsch." The mastermind behind the mercenary operation, Yevgeny Prigozhin, suffered a tragic fate when the aircraft he was travelling on allegedly crashed or was shot down by a Russian missile for violating restricted airspace in the northwest of Moscow, leaving behind a slew of uncertainties and queries.

Being no stranger to controversy, Prigozhin had become the chief orchestrator behind the deployment of Wagner mercenary forces in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Kremlin had close ties with the businessman, elevating his position to a prominent role within Russia's military landscape.

The crash signals the end of a turbulent chapter in Prigozhin's life. Having previously worked closely with President Vladimir Putin and the military leadership, he embarked on an audacious revolt a few months ago. The brief insurrection has failed to produce any substantial result.

While there is limited information available about the plane crash incident, the emergency ministry of Russia has confirmed that Prigozhin was aboard and it is highly unlikely that he survived. The death of this Kremlin-associated figure will certainly have repercussions across the political landscape of the country and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The downfall of Prigozhin and his hired soldiers will have both immediate and long-term implications. In the immediate future, the departure creates a gap which may disrupt the current activities and plans of Wagner's Little Mad Army. The absence of their mysterious leader is likely to lead to disorientation and decreased morale among the remaining troops.

On July 28, this blog featured an in-depth review of Russia's ambiguous summer solstice in 2023.

Read the full article by clicking the link.

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The "Wagner's Little Mad Army" and Russia's Cryptic Summer Equinox of 2023

What It’s really unleash —2023 Russian Equinox started — is still in limbo, but there is no doubt that it was not a “coup”. In fact, all signs point to a "putsch," a "self-coup," or a "Röhm purge."

BY GERMÁN & CO, JUNE 28, 2023

A "putsch" is a political and military maneuver carried out by a minority group with the goal of overthrowing a government or gaining control. In 1960-61, French soldiers, especially the legionnaires, were perplexed by President de Gaulle's proposal to abandon Algeria. Algeria had been a part of France since 1848. Despite the military victories achieved between 1958 and 1960, the soldiers were confused. In May 1958, the French Army successfully staged a coup in Algiers to install de Gaulle as President and maintain French control over Algeria. The Putsch —des généraux—, also known as the “April 1961 Generals' Putsch of Algiers”, was an unsuccessful military coup aimed at preserving French Algeria, the insurrections group was led by Challe, a French legionnaire.

A “self-coup”, also known as an autocoup (derived from the Spanish term "autogolpe"), or coup from the top, refers to a type of coup d'état wherein the leader of a nation, who initially assumed power through legitimate channels, attempts to retain power through unlawful methods. The leader has the potential to dissolve or incapacitate the national legislature, thereby unlawfully acquiring extraordinary powers that are not typically granted under normal circumstances. Other potential measures could involve the nullification of the nation's constitution, the suspension of civil courts, and the assumption of dictatorial powers by the head of government.

The “Röhm-Putsch” is a disinformation strategy in which false information about an ongoing coup was purposefully disseminated in order to justify violent acts (Assassinating the Insurgents). The Röhm-Putsch, also known as the Night of the Long Knives, occurred in Germany in 1934 and had significant political ramifications. Adolf Hitler and the Schutzstaffel carried out a purge of the Sturmabteilung (SA) leadership (SS).

1991 failed Soviet coup marked —decisive moment—

The hardliners within the Communist Party assumed power over Gorbachev and orchestrated a coup d'état due to their perception of diminishing authority. Their actions can be seen as a desperate attempt to regain control over the nation and impede Gorbachev's reform agenda.

The coup took place amidst a period of economic and social turmoil in the Soviet Union, which left a significant portion of the populace disenchanted and disheartened with the government. Gorbachev had devised a dual-pronged reform strategy with the objective of modernizing both the Soviet economy and political structure. The prolonged suppression of the freedom of speech and expression resulted in a surge of social upheaval, as a significant number of individuals demanded greater political autonomy and participation in the governance of their nation.

“Nevertheless, their strategy had unintended consequences as widespread protests erupted across the Soviet Union, with the populace mobilizing to demand the liberation of Gorbachev and the reinstatement of democratic governance. Ultimately, the attempted coup d'état was unsuccessful, leading to the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 31, 1991.

The occurrence of that summer marked the end of a significant era and the beginning of a new chapter in the historical trajectory of Russia. The collapse of the Soviet Union had profound and far-reaching consequences for the international community, as it signified the conclusion of the Cold War and inaugurated a new era of global politics. (2)

Wagners Demands to the State of the Russian Federation...

Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Yevgeny Prigozhin was born on June 1, 1961, in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg), Soviet Union, has been a subject of interest in academic circles. His mother, Violetta Prigozhina, provided financial support for him and his sick grandmother by working at a nearby hospital, as his father died early.

It is noteworthy that Prigozhin's paternal and maternal lineage can be traced back to Jewish ancestry. During his formative years, he harbored aspirations of becoming a professional cross-country skier and subsequently enrolled in renowned athletics boarding school, from which he successfully completed his studies in 1977.

However, his professional trajectory in sports proved to be unsuccessful in the end. In 1990, Prigozhin commenced vending hot dogs at the Apraksin Dvor open-air market in Leningrad, in collaboration with his mother and stepfather.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Prigozhin initiated or participated in numerous entrepreneurial ventures. In 1995, Mr. Prigozhin commenced his foray into the restaurant industry.

The mercenary group leader is a key figure in Russia's escalating domestic conflict.

During the conflict in Ukraine, the paramilitary force experienced a significant expansion, with tens of thousands of combatants under its command. Instances of conflict have arisen between Prigozhin and high-ranking military officials in Russia. He has produced videos that challenge Russia's portrayal of a triumphant military campaign. He frequently claims that his forces have played a leading role in the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, they have expressed doubts regarding the capabilities of the Russian military, specifically directing harsh criticism towards the Minister of Defense, Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu.

“For Prigozhin It is worth noting that Shoigu is known for his close relationship with President Vladimir Putin, whom he considers a trusted confidant. Shoigu was a member of President Boris Yeltsin's inner circle of advisors, like President Vladimir Putin. It is worth mentioning that President Boris Yeltsin was betrayed by his Dauphin, i.e. Vladimir Putin on the same night he was elected premier and this made it unjustifiable that Yeltsin had deposited his succession in his hands four months earlier.

In addition to the criticisms, Prigozhin further escalated tensions in May by releasing a video depicting deceased individuals in military attire and denouncing the leadership for their lack of preparedness.

What is Prigozhin's relationship with Putin?

Putin and Prigozhin hail from the same hometown of St. Petersburg. Putin rose from KGB insider to Russian leader, while Prigozhin served a decade in prison as a teenager before starting a hot dog stand.

During the first decade of the 21st century, Prigozhin established a closer relationship with President Vladimir Putin. In 2003, he left his business partnerships and proceeded to establish independent restaurants. It is worth mentioning that Concord Catering, a company owned by Prigozhin, has been successful in securing multiple government contracts. In 2012, a contract was awarded to him for the provision of meals to the Russian military, with a total value of US$1.2 billion for a duration of one year.

He quickly gained influence in hospitality and caught Putin's attention. Prigozhin earned the nickname "Putin's chef" for assisting in serving state dinners, including one with then-President George W. Bush in 2006, while Putin was in the highest echelons of the Russian government. Putin provided state-funded loans to help Prigozhin open a school-lunch factory. Prigozhin partially owned Concord Management and Consulting, which was suspected of funding pro-Trump trolling during the 2016 election.

What drove Prigozhin's actions?

In a video on Telegram, Prigozhin criticized Russia's leadership for starting the war and admitted that Ukrainian forces were successfully pushing back against the Russian army. On Friday, Prigozhin claimed that Russian military leaders had ordered strikes on his men, resulting in thousands of deaths.

Prigozhin claimed that the war was a chance for scumbags to display their military might and for the defense minister to get promoted.

Russia’s response?

Russian officials launched a criminal probe against Prigozhin for his controversial statement. A Russian military leader warned of a "state coup."

State officials believe that Prigozhin's statement and actions could incite armed civil conflict in Russia.

Who is the much-hated defense minister for Prigozhin?

Serguei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, the Minister of Defense, is a multilingual individual and a talented artist. He has achieved a remarkable career progression within the communist party, starting from a lower position and advancing to a higher position.

The bad news for Prigozhin is that Shoigu has been close to President Vladimir Putin since 2008, whom he considers a trusted confidant. In addition, he was a member of President Boris Yeltsin's inner circle of advisors, like President Vladimir Putin. Shoigu was born on May 21, 1955, in Chadan, Tuvan Autonomous Oblast, which is his birthplace.

Shoigu has a diverse ethnic heritage. His mother is of Russian origin but has Ukrainian roots, while his father is a newspaper editor with Tuvan ancestry. Alexandra Shoigu resides in Kadiivka. She became a member of the Tuva Regional Council of People's Deputies, and his father was a prominent figure in the Communist power structure of the Tuvan Republic. Everything indicates that Prigozhin miscalculated politically by demanding the removal of such a notorious defense minister.

In this unexpected and extraordinary performance, two political figures take the stage.

If we're talking about two —political animals— with battle scars from the countless political conflicts they've experienced.

The first...

The rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan…

President Erdogan's rise to prominence is a compelling story that began with modest beginnings of selling lemonade and sesame buns. For an extended period, he has been a vocal proponent of Islamist causes, concurrently demonstrating a proclivity to stifle his detractors and adversaries and assert Turkey's influence as a regional hegemon. Despite causing division within his population, Erdogan has consistently exhibited his proficiency in winning elections, thereby earning him the endearing title of "reis" or "chief" from his devoted followers. The culmination of his political career resulted in his status as a powerful figure, leading Turkey for a period of twenty years.

1. Despite encountering numerous crises and accusations of worsening Turkey's already dire cost-of-living situation, Erdogan has emerged victorious in the 2023 presidential election.

2. Putin-Erdogan relationship complex, involving Russia-Turkey dynamic interplay.

3. A $100 billion deal to…  And all this for what?

The transportation of Gazprom natural gas through a hub in Turkey, which is financed by Russia, as well as the trade of strategic weapons and their mutual participation in conflicts, have substantial implications for both nations and the global political environment.

And what is its goal?

Prevent Finland and Sweden from joining NATO...

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convened in Sochi, Russia for a meeting. During these discussions, the two leaders have augmented their partnership and reached a consensus on economic collaboration that has the potential to reach a value of $100 billion.

The current relationship between Erdogan and Putin has elicited concerns from Erdogan's NATO allies, who are apprehensive that Erdogan's actions may provide Putin with a substantial means of circumventing the sanctions that have been imposed against him by the West.

The have raised doubts regarding Erdogan's genuine allegiance, which extends beyond his personal interests.

Despite the existing concerns, the current relationship between Putin and Erdogan seems to be mutually advantageous. Putin derives advantages from the sale of energy and arms, in addition to investment prospects. Furthermore, the affiliation of Russia with a member of NATO offers significant strategic benefits.  Turkey is currently experiencing several benefits, including cash infusions, access to affordable energy, global significance, a vast export market, and apparent support from Russia in its endeavors to quell Kurdish separatism in Syria. It is noteworthy to mention that the two leaders maintain a relationship of both friendship and enmity, commonly referred to as "frenemies," which is of significant magnitude. Both individuals exhibit characteristics of authoritarian leaders, having accumulated significant authority and maintaining a closed circle of advisors. Additionally, they are known for their assertive and uncompromising demeanor. The bilateral relationship between the two nations is contingent upon the rapport established between their respective leaders. It is noteworthy that the discussions held between them are treated with utmost confidentiality.

It is evident that President Erdogan could not passively accept the risk of losing all the geopolitical and economic gains he had obtained from President Putin.

According to reports, during a complex phone call between the Turkish president and his Russian counterpart, it is claimed that the former emphasized the importance of utilizing —common sense—.

The second one is…

Who is Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus?

He has been in power since 1994. Alexander Lukashenko was born in northern Belarus after World War II. His father left the family, leaving him and his mother to fend for themselves. Alexander Lukashenko's early dedication to Leninist ideology led him to attend the Mogilev Teaching Institute after high school.  Before politics, he was in the Soviet Army and directed a state-owned farm. Lukashenko spent three years as a political officer in the Soviet Border Guards after graduation.  Lukashenko married his childhood sweetheart upon returning home. Lukashenko led the Communist Youth Wing's Komsomol. Lukashenko joined a state-owned farm to support his family.

Lukashenko had a successful career managing a construction materials plant and state-run farm complex before becoming a deputy to the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of Belarus. He later chaired an anti-corruption committee.

A year after the Soviet Union's collapse, Lukashenko's anti-corruption stance led to his unexpected win in Belarus' first independent presidential election. Lukashenko has held onto power for decades by relying on his ideological beliefs from his youth,

Europe’s last autocrat leads Belarus. Lukashenko has been president for almost 29 years, starting in July 1994.Lukashenko, 68, started his sixth term after the controversial August 2020 Belarusian presidential election. Western countries deemed the Belarus election fraudulent, leading to widespread protests by hundreds of thousands of Belarusians against Lukashenko's power grab.

“Lukashenko is a close ally of Putin…

Putin offered military support to Lukashenko after the 2020 Belarusian election. Lukashenko backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and allowed the Russian military to enter Ukraine through Belarus.

In reciprocity, Lukashenko acts as a mediator..., preventing Russian bloodshed.

Today, Reuters published a note stating that Lukashenko claimed Putin wanted to "wipe out" Wagner chief Prigozhin during a mutiny attempt. And New York Times, post at Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military.

In response to what the Kremlin portrayed as a mutiny that could have led to civil war, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that he persuaded Russian President Vladimir Putin not to eliminate mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Putin initially promised to put down the mutiny, comparing it to the wartime chaos that led to the 1917 revolution and subsequent civil war. However, a deal was struck shortly afterwards that allowed Prigozhin and some of his fighters to relocate to Belarus. On Tuesday, Prigozhin flew from Russia to Belarus.

During his conversation with Putin on Saturday, Lukashenko used Russian criminal slang, using a phrase that means to kill someone, like the English phrase "wipe out."

I also understood that a harsh decision had been made (which was implied in Putin's address) to eliminate the mutineers," Lukashenko stated during a meeting with army officials and journalists on Tuesday, as reported by Belarusian state media.

"I advised Putin to take his time."

He said to me, "Listen, Sasha, it's pointless." "He refuses to answer calls and avoids all conversations. “Putin used the same Russian verb in 1999 to describe his determination to eliminate Chechen militants, stating that he would "wipe them out in the shithouse."

*These remarks have since become a widely quoted symbol of his strong personality.

*The Kremlin has not yet commented on Lukashenko's remarks, which provide a rare glimpse into the discussions within the Kremlin as Russia, as stated by Putin, faced a level of turmoil not witnessed in decades.

Lukashenko remark at this is the most highly trained unit in the army," quoted Lukashenko by the BelTA state agency.  

"Who would argue with this?"

Later, Lukashenko informed his military that "people do not comprehend that we are taking a practical approach to this... Wagner, who has experienced it firsthand, will provide us with insights on the effectiveness of different weapons - what worked well and what didn't. Prigozhin stopped what he referred to as the "march of justice" on Moscow from the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, which is about 200 kilometers away from the capital, after Lukashenko intervened.

Conclusions:

Based on the information provided in the Reuters and New York Times report, it can be inferred that the current Russian Summer Equinox bears similarities to a "Röhm purge" that is currently in progress.

The definitive outcome of the Russian Summer Equinox provides strong indications regarding the fate of Nicholas II and Rasputin, with a significant level of certainty.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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News Round-Up, August 23, 2023

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By the way, the BRICS summit is ongoing in South Africa…

All five countries have their own agenda of political and economic interests…

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However, there seems to be a "friendly" but intense rivalry between China and Russia over Africa's new colonization.

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Furthermore, Russia's connection with Europe has played a pivotal role in its modernization over the past three centuries. The progress made by Western and Central Europe in science and technology has acted as a crucial catalyst for Russia's development. At this time, BRICS membership is crucial for Russia as it has become increasingly isolated, leading to a desire for closer cooperation and integration. It aims to establish itself as a noteworthy contender on the European platform while preserving its identity as a BRICS member.

Nevertheless, the Ukraine crisis and subsequent imposition of sanctions by the EU notably transformed Russia's relationship with Europe. These incidents led to tense relations defined by mutual mistrust and antagonism. Russia's exceptional stance within the BRICS group regarding matters concerning the EU became more conspicuous during this period.
Russia understands the significance of engaging with the EU, whether positive or negative, as a crucial player in global affairs. The country recognizes the importance of the economic cooperation, trade, and investment shared between the two entities, particularly in Russia's European region, which boasts immense resources and growth potential.

Although Russia's distinctive position within the BRICS group still influences its approach to the EU, it endeavors to balance its BRICS identity with its aspirations of forging closer ties with Europe, such as finding unique solutions to the present conflict. But, Russia must recognize that its relationship with Europe should be based on mutual respect, shared values, and common interests. This aims at overcoming outstanding grievances and establishing a more constructive and productive partnership in the future.

The historical context between Russia and the EU indeed carries immense significance. As the EU remains a vital partner for Russia, establishing an urgent and comprehensive channel for effective communication is of utmost importance. It is essential to remember the wise words of Mr. Henry Kissinger when he spoke about President Vladimir Putin's fondness for Dostoyevsky. By understanding this facet, we can gain valuable insight into Russia's perspective and develop a more nuanced understanding of its actions. Russia must recognize the criticality of the moment and set aside any remnants of imperial pride. It is imperative to end the ongoing foolish war, which has caused numerous casualties and extensive destruction. The gravity of the situation suggests that the recovery process will be lengthy, spanning several years.

Finally, unless an extraordinary event occurs in the current war dispute, the world will be subject to the high interest rates established by central banks. Though deemed a blessing by private banks, these rates provide them with huge profits, raising alarms today for the conservative British government led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. This issue is even more pressing given the serious economic crisis currently faced by the country and the entire world.

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Most read…

Mining Companies Want to Turn Scrap Metal Into Green-Energy Treasure

Rio Tinto, Glencore and others seek to burnish environmental credentials, gain competitive edge as energy transition stokes demand for commodities

WSJ By Rhiannon Hoyle  in Adelaide, Australia and Julie Steinberg in London, August 23, 2023 

Solar Boom Spreads to Timberlands and Self-Storage Rooftops

Last year’s climate bill sparked a solar bonanza for big property owners

WSJ by Ryan Dezember, Augus 21, 2023

A Nightmare for Trump's Defense Team: Everything He Says Can Be Used Against Him

Donald Trump and 18 Allies Have Been Indicted in Georgia for Election Interference Scheme 

Vivek Ramaswamy, the millionaire son of Indian immigrants looking to shake up the Republican debate

In the absence of Donald Trump, the entrepreneur is hoping to use Wednesday's televised debate to close in on Ron DeSantis, currently in second place in the polls.

Le Monde by Piotr Smolar (Washington (United States) correspondent), Published today 

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The AES Corporation is committed to accelerating the future of energy transitions by delivering greener and more innovative solutions. AES firmly believes that energy infrastructure plays a crucial role in ensuring the sustainability of our sector. Recently, the AES President and CEO, Andrés Gluski, had the privilege of moderating a captivating discussion titled "Harnessing Diplomacy for the Energy Transition and Universal Access" at the @EEI_Intl panel. This engaging conversation highlights the importance of collaboration and innovative approaches in driving the energy transition forward.

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Lithium-ion batteries are recycled at a Li-Cycle facility in Canada. Recycled lithium could comprise 39% of the global market for the metal by 2050, according to one estimate. PHOTO: CHRISTINNE MUSCHI/BLOOMBERG NEWS

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Mining Companies Want to Turn Scrap Metal Into Green-Energy Treasure

Rio Tinto, Glencore and others seek to burnish environmental credentials, gain competitive edge as energy transition stokes demand for commodities

WSJ By Rhiannon Hoyle  in Adelaide, Australia and Julie Steinberg in London, August 23, 2023 

Some global mining companies are taking their hunt for materials that can power the energy transition to city scrapyards.

Rio Tinto and Glencore GLNCY 1.78%increase; green up pointing triangle have signed deals this year to expand critical metals recycling, branching out from investments over the past decade that involve running giant mines in countries including the U.S., Australia and Congo.

They and others are betting that makers of cars and consumer electronics will increasingly demand sustainably sourced metals for their products. They are also seeking to turn a potential threat from rising scrap-metal supply into an opportunity.

Rio Tinto last month agreed to buy a 50% stake in Matalco, a supplier of recycled aluminum owned by Canada’s Giampaolo Group, for $700 million. Rio Tinto is the world’s second-largest miner by market value and a major producer of aluminum, used to make electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines.

Off the Scrap Heap

Increasing demand for critical metals, emissions goals and supply chain concerns are expected ​to boost scrap-metal use.

Source: Wood Mackenzie

Glencore in May agreed with Li-Cycle Holdings to study and create a recycling hub in Europe that could produce enough recycled material for up to 36 gigawatts of lithium-ion batteries annually. It would be Europe’s largest source of recycled battery-grade lithium, cobalt and nickel, according to the companies.

The moves come as the resources sector fights to change investors’ perceptions that mining is problematic and threatens the environment, including by contributing to climate change. The industry’s record on emissions, waste and deforestation is challenging efforts by some companies to get new projects permitted and attract skilled workers.

“You use less energy when you recycle, and you have less impact on nature,” said Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto’s chief executive officer. “So I do think that anywhere where we can do that, we should try to do that.”

Miners also see an opportunity for profit. Several decades of industrialization in China is expected to start throwing off more secondhand metal than ever before, which companies hope can be recycled and sold again.

The cost to set up aluminum-scrap processing facilities is typically one-tenth of what is needed to build plants to produce the commodity new, said Wood Mackenzie, a U.K.-based consulting firm.

Policy makers in some parts of the world have set ambitious targets for recycling. The European Union’s executive body this year proposed a goal of getting at least 15% of some critical raw materials from its own recycled sources.

“If you’re not going into recyclability, we will keep on being cannibalized by recycling because the world will see more and more,” said Stausholm.

Globally, 42% of aluminum will be sourced from scrap come 2050, compared with 26% in 2022, Wood Mackenzie estimates. For lithium, recycled metal could comprise 39% of the market by then, from 2% last year.

Some executives say big Western mining companies will need to get involved in scrap-metal supply in some way to stay relevant. But several also highlighted drawbacks, including margins that are typically thinner than running large mining pits.

For BHP Group, the world’s No. 1 mining company by market value, recycling metal doesn’t offer the same scale, returns or require the same skills as its core business digging up commodities such as iron ore and coal in the Australian Outback.

“The fact is, it’s not as easy to do as everyone thinks,” said Duncan Wanblad, CEO of London-based mining company Anglo American, which is looking for partnerships. “It’s not like you can just take a smelter or a refinery that you’ve currently got” and start feeding it scrap, he said.

Many customers still also need new metal. Aluminum made from scrap can have significant impurities that mean it doesn’t meet the standards for some aerospace, electronics and defense products.

Recycling alone can’t fill demand projected for the global energy transition either, miners say. Electric cars and renewable energy infrastructure use several times more copper than gas-powered vehicles and coal plants.

An International Energy Agency report on EV battery supply chains last year estimated another 50 average-size lithium mines, 60 nickel mines and 17 cobalt mines would be required by 2030 to meet climate pledges.

But developing a mine takes time—16 years on average, according to the IEA—and recycled metal has significantly fewer carbon emissions. Recycled aluminum production typically has a carbon footprint five to 25 times lower than new metal, according to Wood Mackenzie.

“Recycling won’t be able to completely substitute mining—that goes without saying,” Emmanuel Katrakis, secretary-general of the European Recycling Industries’ Confederation, said earlier this year. “Yet, recycling is essential to de-risk supply chains and drive sustainability of raw materials, be them base metals or critical ones.”

The recent deals involve partnerships with companies experienced in collecting scrap, sometimes called urban mining—a task that is outside the expertise of miners such as Rio Tinto.

Mining companies that are branching out are so far only really doing so where they have existing smelting or refining processing capacity, said Wood Mackenzie global mining research director Nick Pickens.

Major producers of iron ore and copper are making bumper profits from their existing operations, Pickens said. “And at the moment it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for them to enter businesses with thinner margins and in which they have limited operating experience,” he said.

Some mining companies already have a sizable foothold. For Glencore, a big player that has been recycling metals for decades, its recent agreement with Li-Cycle shows how the company is positioning for the energy transition. The recycling business contributes between $200 million and $250 million, or less than 1%, to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Executives expect it to be a multiple of that within five years.

“We see all these tailwinds,” said Kunal Sinha, Glencore’s global head of recycling, pointing to regulatory changes and consumer demand, such as from the fashion industry.

Mark Cutifani, chairman of Brazilian mining company Vale’s VALE 3.17%increase; green up pointing triangle base metals business, says there has been an evolution in the way miners are thinking about their role in the energy transition and a so-called circular economy. Vale’s base metals business spends up to $200 million each year buying scrap for recycling.

Before ending his nearly decadelong tenure as CEO of Anglo American last year, Cutifani told The Wall Street Journal that miners needed to start talking more about being materials suppliers and not just about digging.

“Are you a stagecoach company,” he said, “or are you in transportation?”

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Extra Space Storage had solar systems at 55% of its wholly owned properties at the beginning of the year. DAVID SWANSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

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Solar Boom Spreads to Timberlands and Self-Storage Rooftops

Last year’s climate bill sparked a solar bonanza for big property owners

WSJ by Ryan Dezember, Augus 21, 2023

The U.S. solar boom has electricity producers popping up in unusual places: self-storage buildings, Southern pinelands, even outlet malls.

Solar development has surged since last year’s climate and healthcare bill, which boosted tax breaks for renewable-energy projects. In the year since the bill became a law known as the Inflation Reduction Act, U.S. companies have announced plans for more than $100 billion of domestic projects, including solar installations, energy storage systems and panel factories, according to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association and research firm Wood Mackenzie.

Solar installations made up 35% of all new utility-scale generation capacity in the first half of the year, according to the Energy Information Administration. It expects the U.S. to add 25.2 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2023, enough to power upwards of five million homes and more than from new wind, natural gas and nuclear generation combined.

That doesn’t count small-scale installations, often on rooftops, which account for about a third of U.S. solar output, the EIA estimates. Those are proliferating, too.

Cumulative new U.S. generating capacity

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Note: Utility-scale; July through December is planned.

Greater solar-generating capacity has helped keep prices for natural gas and coal down this summer and power bills in check despite all the electricity needed for air conditioning. When triple-digit temperatures baked Texas last month, record solar production in the state kept its least efficient natural-gas plants offline and held local fuel prices below the national benchmark. 

Development plans could be scuttled by the difficulty of adding long-haul transmission lines, legislators who favor fossil fuels, rising prices for renewable power and supply-chain problems. 

But tax breaks that can add up to 70% of development costs and market share left by retiring coal plants and inefficient gas-burners have solar developers looking for places to tilt photovoltaic panels toward the sun.

They are finding receptive hosts among the country’s biggest property owners, such as timber companies PotlatchDeltic PCH 0.86%increase; green up pointing triangle and Weyerhaeuser WY 0.86%increase; green up pointing triangle and self-storage giants Extra Space Storage EXR -0.65%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Public Storage PSA 0.16%increase; green up pointing triangle, which have thousands of acres of rooftops.

A solar developer paid PotlatchDeltic about $7,500 an acre, a $14 million total, last year in the forest-product company’s first deal. The price was roughly 10 times greater than what the land was worth growing trees. Plus, the trees had to go, so PotlatchDeltic made its usual money on the logs.

The company now has about $200 million of land sales and leases lined up with solar developers on roughly 20,000 acres and is searching its 1.6 million acres in the Southern U.S. for additional sites near transformers and high-voltage lines, Chief Executive Eric Cremers said.

Those deals will take roughly 1% of the company’s land out of wood growing, but the $200 million amounts to about 4% of the value of its stock and debt, Cremers told investors on a call earlier this month. “That’s a pretty good trade,” he said.

Weyerhaeuser, America’s largest private landowner, expects its first utility-scale solar project to go online at year-end and is scouting locations for more, a spokesman said. 

Rayonier RYN -0.10%decrease; red down pointing triangle, another big timber owner, has long-term leases and options with solar developers on about 26,000 acres in six Southern states, including Texas, where workers are installing an array on 583 acres, said CEO David Nunes. Before striking deals, Rayonier studies the financial and environmental trade-offs of replacing its pine plantations with solar farms. 

“The efficiency from an emissions-reduction standpoint is so high because you’re basically replacing coal-fired or natural-gas-fired electric generation,” Nunes said. “It’s many times more beneficial than the lost carbon sequestration you would otherwise be getting growing timber.”

In towns and cities, where there is much less room than in the rural South, solar developers are covering the roofs of self-storage buildings.  

Extra Space started the year with solar systems at 55% of its wholly owned properties and many more on the drawing board.

Public Storage has about 150 million square feet of vacant rooftop space—more than 3,400 acres—and needs only about 15% of it to generate enough electricity for its own needs. An initiative is under way to put panels on another 1,000 roofs by 2025.

“That’s an important program to offset our utility costs, lower our carbon emissions and to drive rental income from the vacant rooftops,” Public Storage finance chief Tom Boyle told portfolio managers at a recent real-estate investing conference.

Source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationNote: Solar includes small- and utility-scale.

Public Storage said this month that it would install arrays at 133 properties in Maryland, New Jersey and Illinois and make discounted power available to nearby low- to moderate-income households, projects that are encouraged by the climate bill with additional tax credits. Extra Space has a similar program in New Jersey. 

At Tanger Factory Outlet Centers SKT -1.08%decrease; red down pointing triangle, more than a million square feet of solar panels share rooftops with gardens and beehives, all part of the outdoor-mall operator’s effort to appeal to green investors and environmental-minded customers while cutting its utility bills. 

The power is used on site, and Tanger expects to have enough installed by the end of next year to offset 20% of its energy consumption, said operations chief Leslie Swanson. 

Tanger used to lease its rooftops to developers, she said, but has lately installed its own arrays atop malls in Florida, Texas and Arizona, and it also shaded the Arizona parking lot with panels.  

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Just Exceptional...

“Words fail to capture the resplendent magnificence of this exquisite beverage. Its qualities transcend the boundaries of human expression, rendering it a true paragon of its kind. Indeed, it stands unequivocally among the most exceptional —-elixir—- concoctions ever produced…

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Illustration by Germán & Co.

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A Nightmare for Trump's Defense Team: Everything He Says Can Be Used Against Him

Donald Trump and 18 Allies Have Been Indicted in Georgia for Election Interference Scheme 

TIME BY ERIC CORTELLESSA, AUGUST 21, 2023 

At some point last week, Donald Trump’s lawyers got through to him. One day after a Georgia grand jury indicted him for trying to overturn the 2020 election, the former president announced on Tuesday that he would hold a press conference the following week to rebut the charges. The plan didn’t last for long. By Thursday, the whole thing was nixed. "My lawyers would prefer putting this, I believe, Irrefutable & Overwhelming evidence of Election Fraud & Irregularities in formal Legal Filings as we fight to dismiss this disgraceful Indictment," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

In other words, Trump’s attorneys seemingly convinced him of one of his most sacred rights as a criminal defendant: Mr. President, you have the right to remain silent.

But while his legal team may have dodged a bullet, for now, the problem isn’t going away. Trump is famous for his impromptu and incendiary pronouncements, whether through his rambling speeches or his social media tirades. Over the course of a long and arduous campaign, he will have ample opportunity to pontificate on his many prosecutions, meaning his lawyers, in all likelihood, won’t be able to protect Trump from himself for long. “No one has been able to manage Donald Trump, including Donald Trump,” says Whit Ayres, a veteran GOP strategist. “The effort to do so is virtually hopeless. I can't imagine being his defense attorney in one of these trials. You'd have to drink a case of Maalox every morning just to get through the day.”

Still, Trump has proven himself adept at turning scandal into political advantage. His mastery of survival and showmanship could help him clinch the Republican nomination—with each indictment, he has soared only further in the polls—but it also comes with a distinctive risk, as Trump’s comments could potentially be used against him in court.

“I think that the statements he's making can, and likely will do, substantial damage to him,” says Norm Eisen, who served as counsel for House Democrats on Trump’s first impeachment. “Additional statements can incriminate you. They can be the basis of worsening existing charges or superseding charges. They can be utilized as admissions while the trial is being prosecuted, whether or not Trump testifies. They run the risk of witness intimidation or harassment, which violate the terms of release for federal and state law.” 

Attorneys for Special Counsel Jack Smith have already alerted the judge overseeing the federal election subversion case against Trump about a Truth Social post that appeared to threaten prospective witnesses. “If you come after me, I’m coming after you,” Trump wrote in all caps. While Trump’s campaign insisted the post was meant as a warning to the former President’s political enemies, it was written in a way that left his intent open to interpretation. That kind of language from Trump could also become a problem for him in Georgia, where the conditions of a new $200,000 bond agreement stipulate that he refrain from intimidating a witness or co-defendant, including on social media.

It’s a dynamic that reveals the double-edged nature of Trump’s ploy to consolidate his political and legal strategies. “I think they're going to have a field day, because any prosecutor would tell you there are few things more powerful than using a defendant’s own statements in court,” says Temidayo Aganga-Williams, a former federal prosecutor who was a staff member on the Jan. 6 Committee. “You would tell jurors to act like this is any other person—if this were your son, your brother, your co-worker.” 

Trump has cast the four separate indictments against him as a partisan witch-hunt to stop him from reclaiming the White House. In both the federal and Georgia cases that allege he knowingly spread lies of election fraud to stay in power, Trump’s attorneys have argued that he was acting within his First Amendment rights to challenge the election outcome. They also insist that Trump believed his own claims and was therefore not operating with criminal intent. 

But while his lawyers are trying to exonerate him in court, his campaign has been using his predicament to capitalize on the campaign trail, sending out a stream of fundraising blasts after each arraignment and selling merchandise with fake Trump mug shots. The tactic has worked; the former President is currently leading the GOP field by 30-to-40 points in most surveys. “President Trump is dominating every single poll—both nationally and statewide—and his numbers keep going up,” Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, tells TIME. “The latest polls conducted after the last indictment show the American people are standing firmly with him against out-of-control Democrats.” 

Trump’s grip on the Republican base is one reason why most of his opponents haven’t attacked him over his legal woes. Instead, they seem to have made a calculation that the myriad prosecutors bringing criminal charges against Trump in the middle of an election year present the greatest threat to his Oval Office aspirations. A looming question that will be hanging over the first GOP primary debate Wednesday night is whether any of these cases will be resolved before voters head to the polls next year. 

Smith has requested the election case go to trial in January, while the federal judge overseeing the Mar-a-Lago documents case has already set a trial date for May 2024. Former prosecutors suspect that Smith is trying to move these cases along swiftly to avoid the possibility that Trump could put an end to them should he win the election, either by attempting to pardon himself or appointing an attorney general to squash the matter altogether. The Justice Department’s long-standing policy of avoiding even the appearance of interfering in an election adds another level of urgency to bring these cases to a conclusion.

Fani Willis, the Fulton County District Attorney, has more latitude. As a state prosecutor, she operates independently of the federal government, which allows her to keep prosecuting Trump even if he’s the sitting President of the United States. That helps to explain why she’s pursuing a more sprawling and complicated case, bringing racketeering charges against Trump and 18 allies with whom he allegedly conspired to nullify Joe Biden’s election victory. It may well be another reason why Trump’s lawyers tried to put the kibosh on his planned press conference, in which he was expected to propagate the disproven election fraud claims that sit at the heart of the Georgia indictment.

“In my more than three decades principally acting as a criminal defense lawyer,” Eisen says, “the first instruction I gave my client at the very first meeting was: Shut up about this case. Do not talk to anyone. You do not know how that is going to come back to harm you.” 

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Entrepreneur and U.S. Republican primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, in Atlanta, Georgia, August 19, 2023. CHENEY ORR / REUTERS

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Vivek Ramaswamy, the millionaire son of Indian immigrants looking to shake up the Republican debate

In the absence of Donald Trump, the entrepreneur is hoping to use Wednesday's televised debate to close in on Ron DeSantis, currently in second place in the polls.

Le Monde by Piotr Smolar (Washington (United States) correspondent), Published today 

The cards are stacked. It's over before it even begins. They may as well call Republican primaries a wrap. This is what Donald Trump would like to have us believe when justifying his refusal to join the Republican primary debate. The former US president will not be taking part in the first televised debate between the contenders of his camp in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Wednesday, August 23 (to be aired by Fox News). Nor will he take part in the next one, due to be held on September 27. Trump's explanation is that Republican voters already know him and that his lead over his main rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, is irreversible. It stood at 46 points on Sunday, according to a CBS News poll.

Over the course of the summer, one indictment after another has been brought against the former president yet not one of his rivals has used this to their advantage. Trump is therefore taking the – fairly limited – risk of letting others talk about him, in front of the cameras, as he prepares to appear on Thursday before a judge in Fulton County, Georgia, for his key role in attempting to interfere with the 2020 presidential election. No other Republican candidate has been able to offer a credible alternative. With so many contenders, the debate is likely to resemble a public speaking competition for second place. Among the candidates, only newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy has drawn the interest of commentators, particularly because he symbolizes the party's transformation.

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News Round-Up, August 22, 2023

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China's Economic Dilemma: An “Insatiable Dragon” at a Crossroads

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, August 21, 2023.

China, renowned as the "insatiable dragon," has undoubtedly emerged as a global economic powerhouse. However, the present epoch has witnessed the emergence of formidable challenges that have compelled this mighty dragon to reassess its position on the world stage. A combination of factors, including an ailing economy, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have shaken China's long-held wisdom of presenting itself as a Maoist nation embracing capitalism. China's economic success has been driven by its manufacturing, exports, and investment. Its ability to balance socialism and capitalism has been a critical factor in its meteoric rise as an economic superpower.

However, recent times have tested its adaptability. The COVID-19 pandemic has hit China hard and revealed vulnerabilities in its economic and political systems. The substantial disruption to global supply chains and decreased consumer spending and investment inflicted a severe blow on China's economy. The formerly smooth flow of goods and services ceased, affecting domestic production and decelerating economic growth. China's impressive manufacturing system encountered obstacles as factories closed and trade volumes dropped.

Additionally, the crisis in Ukraine and Russia's invasion caused a ripple effect throughout the international community. China finds itself in a challenging position, trying to maintain a delicate balance in its diplomatic maneuvering. Historically, China has followed an ideology rooted in communism while gradually adopting the principles of capitalism. However, this balancing act has become increasingly difficult as geopolitical tensions have risen.

The Russian invasion in Ukraine has compelled China to review its foreign policy strategy, especially regarding its economic interests in the region. China's pursuit of natural resources and energy supplies, critical for fueling its economic growth, has consistently influenced its foreign policy decisions. However, China now finds itself walking a diplomatic tightrope as it must balance the need for energy resources with concerns regarding Russia's actions and international condemnation.

These recent challenges have brought ambiguity about China's conventional wisdom of projection as a totalitarian state with an aspiration to be a prosperous capitalist country. While traversing through uncharted waters, China encounters a deeply entrenched predicament.

"Does it sustain prioritisation of economic expansion and global dominance, or does it shift its focus towards re-establishing the significance of socialist principles and self-sufficiency?"

China may be either tacitly supporting Russia's actions or carefully calculating its response to protect its interests. Amidst these uncertainties, an interesting development has arisen on the global political stage. Meanwhile, a senior statesman with extensive political knowledge has emerged and poses a significant challenge to China's leader, Xi Jinping. The veteran's expertise and experience may prove to be a valuable asset in navigating these complex geopolitical waters.

Meanwhile, an elderly gentleman with deep political knowledge has emerged to pose a formidable challenge to China's leader, Xi Ping. The veteran US president has become a cruel nightmare for President Xi Ping and many autocratic leaders around the world.

The American president is a charismatic figure with a proud Irish heritage and the ability to connect with people on a personal level. Despite his powerful position, he remains humble and approachable, breaking down the barriers between world leaders and their constituents. But do not be fooled by his gentle touch and affable disposition. There is a fire in this President, a passion that burns with all the fervor of the Irish spirit. When confronted with injustice or the need for swift action, he is not afraid to bang the table and demand immediate attention and resolution. The strength and determination of his actions leave no doubt that he will fight for what he believes in, regardless of the consequences.

Xi Jinping is well aware of his nature.

Nevertheless, these are the penultimate words in a wild, dangerous, ridiculous, unbelievable world struggling to find a way out of a geopolitical crisis that is still not in sight.

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Most read…

China’s blueprint for an alternative world order

Beijing is using its economic muscle to rally developing countries and reduce the west’s influence over the UN

Financial Times by James Kynge in London, now.

The BRICS Club of Emerging Nations Debates Letting Others In

China wants to expand the five-nation bloc, but the members’ conflicting interests may get in the way.

NYT By David Pierson, Lynsey Chutel, Jack Nicas, Alex Travelli, and Paul Sonne, today.

Exclusive: Northvolt raises $1.2 billion in latest funding round for factory build out - CFO

REuters By Supantha Mukherjee and Simon Jessop, August 22, 2023

Japan to Release Treated Water From Ruined Nuclear Plant Despite Concerns

In the face of regional and domestic objections, the country plans to proceed with a discharge at Fukushima that will eventually reach more than a million tons of water.

NYT by Motoko Rich and Hisako Ueno, reporting from Tokyo and Iwaki in Japan, published August 21, 2023.

The tragedy of the Venezuelan migration crisis

IN ONE IMAGE: The Steepest Hill

When I first met Mr. Arias, something extraordinary was happening.

NYT By Federico Rios, Today

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The AES Corporation is committed to accelerating the future of energy transitions by delivering greener and more innovative solutions. AES firmly believes that energy infrastructure plays a crucial role in ensuring the sustainability of our sector. Recently, the AES President and CEO, Andrés Gluski, had the privilege of moderating a captivating discussion titled "Harnessing Diplomacy for the Energy Transition and Universal Access" at the @EEI_Intl panel. This engaging conversation highlights the importance of collaboration and innovative approaches in driving the energy transition forward.

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Illustration: "The insatiable dragon" by Germán & Co. Copyright.

China’s blueprint for an alternative world order

Beijing is using its economic muscle to rally developing countries and reduce the west’s influence over the UN

Financial Times by James Kynge in London, now.

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When Xi Jinping, China’s leader, delivered an “important speech” at the UN in September 2021, it appeared to be little more than a list of feelgood clichés. He said that the world needed “harmony between man and nature” and added that economic development should bring “benefits for all”.

So short on specifics was his address that the international media mostly ignored it. Through subsequent elaborations, however, that speech has taken on a crucial significance. This is because Xi used it to propose a new scheme called the Global Development Initiative, which is now gaining recognition as a foundation stone in China’s blueprint for an alternative world order to challenge that of the US-led west.

Ostensibly, the GDI is a Chinese-led multilateral programme to promote development, alleviate poverty and improve health in the developing world. But along with two follow-up initiatives also announced by Xi — the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilisation Initiative — it represents China’s boldest move yet to enlist the support of the “global south” to amplify Beijing’s voice on the world stage and build up China’s profile in the UN, Chinese officials and commentators say.

“[Xi’s initiatives] show China’s clearest intention yet to update the rules of global governance that were written by the collective west in the aftermath of world war two,” says Yu Jie, senior research fellow at Chatham House, a think-tank in London.

“The initiatives illuminate Beijing’s moves to carve out its own space in international affairs because it is firmly convinced that China’s relations with the collective west will remain turbulent for a decade to come,” she adds.

The key to China’s blueprint is to steadily institutionalise its leadership over the developing world by creating, expanding and funding a raft of China-led groupings of countries, according to Chinese officials and commentators. They add that the aims of this strategy are largely two-fold: to ensure that a broad swath of the world remains open to Chinese trade and investment and to use the voting power of developing countries at the UN and in other forums to project Chinese power and values.

The crucial context to this strategy is that by seeking increased leadership over the global south, China is throwing in its lot with the largest and fastest-growing part of the world. The 152 countries classified as developing at the UN vastly outstrip their developed counterparts on yardsticks such as population size and population growth, GDP growth rates over the past two decades and overall contribution to global GDP growth as measured by purchasing power parity.

For the first time ever, China exported more in the early part of this year to the developing world — as represented by the countries that make up the Belt and Road Initiative — than it exported to the US, EU and Japan combined (see chart), according to data collected by Dongwu Securities, a Chinese brokerage.

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China exports more to developning world than US and Japan

% of Total Chinese Exports in 2023 up to April.
Source: Wind, Dongwu Securities
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“China will always be a member of the family of developing countries,” Xi told a forum in 2021. “We will continue to do our utmost in raising the representation and voice of developing nations in the global governance system.”

The list of international institutions in which Beijing hopes to magnify its influence and, by extension, that of the developing world is getting longer. It includes the UN, the World Trade Organization, the G20 and others, Chinese officials say. In addition, Beijing also intends to expand the membership and raise the profile of several groupings in which it already plays a leading role, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Brics group and others.

“We should not take the Chinese Communist party’s endeavours to establish a new world order lightly,” says Xu Chenggang, senior research scholar at Stanford University’s Center on China’s Economy and Institutions. “Developing countries with authoritarian regimes, particularly those in conflict with the US and other democracies, are finding that China’s new order is beneficial to their domestic authoritarian rule and their foreign policy,” he adds.

Multilateralism with Chinese characteristics

The UN — with its 15 specialised agencies that exercise global governance in several areas such as finance, telecoms, health and hunger alleviation — lies at the “very centre” of China’s worldview and its plans to boost its influence, says one senior Chinese official, who declined to be identified.

It is also a focus of Beijing’s attempt to gain influence through Xi’s three initiatives. The most important move so far has come in the form of a new UN forum that China founded in 2020. Called the “Group of Friends of the Global Development Initiative”, it has about 70 member countries, has held its first ministerial meeting and has won the endorsement of UN secretary- general António Guterres, according to official Chinese documents.

The full list of member countries in the group is confidential, a UN spokesperson and Chinese officials say. However, a list compiled by the Financial Times of 20 countries believed to be members, shows that the group includes many of China’s biggest debtors under the BRI. Through the initiative, Chinese financial institutions have lent nearly $1tn mainly for infrastructure projects in the developing world since 2013.

A study by AidData, a US-based research lab, shows that the 20 countries on the list have displayed impressive loyalty to China in the form of votes at the UN. Between 2013 and 2020, each of them have voted with China on at least 75 per cent of occasions in the UN General Assembly (see chart), the main policymaking body which issues recommendations on global crises, manages internal UN appointments and oversees the UN’s budget.

In the case of Cambodia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe — all of which owe hefty debts to China — their voting alignment with China in the assembly registered at 80 per cent or above, according to the research.

The correlation between increased lending and greater voting fealty was consistent across the sample. “When countries vote with China in the UN General Assembly, they are richly rewarded,” says Bradley Parks, executive director of AidData. “Beijing is dusting off an old playbook and using its largesse to purchase foreign policy favours.

“On average, a 10 per cent increase in voting alignment with China in the UN General Assembly yields a 276 per cent increase in aid and credit from Beijing,” he adds, quoting AidData’s research on voting patterns over the period from 2013 to 2020.

These correlations do not prove that countries vote with China purely because of the debts they owe. Several other factors may also be in play such as political allegiances, trade and investment ties and agendas common to developing countries.

Nevertheless, such loyalty represents a resource that China can draw on in future UN votes, says Courtney Fung, a UN expert at the Lowy Institute, a think-tank based in Australia.

“China can harness these relationships in UN votes or debates to support and underline just how well-accepted China’s positions are within the UN system,” Fung says.

One focus of China’s UN strategy is lobbying. If Beijing can secure the allegiance of the majority of 152 developing countries — out of 193 UN member states — it stands to prevail and correspondingly amplify its voice in world affairs, Chinese officials say.

Recent general assembly resolutions have covered a gamut of issues, including financing for peacebuilding, pandemic prevention and a “new partnership” for Africa’s development.

But, as China’s recent experience shows, it is not only in the broadest forums such as general assembly where the votes of developing countries loyal to China have turned out to be crucial.

In October last year, the UN Human Rights Council voted down a western-led motion to hold a debate on China’s human rights abuses after a cohort of developing countries backed Beijing. The council has 47 members, of whom 19 voted against the motion, 17 for and 11 abstained.

It was only the second time in the council’s 16-year history that a motion had been rejected. But what made the defeat even more extraordinary was that it came just weeks after a finding by the UN Office of the High Commission for Human Rights that “serious human rights violations” had been committed by Beijing against Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, a region in north-west China.

Following that victory, China then enlisted 66 countries — most of them recipients of Chinese lending under the BRI — to support a statement at the UN praising its human rights record. Its signatories outnumbered the 50 mostly western countries that endorsed a rival statement which condemned China.

Beyond such one-off battles, China is starting to use the “Group of Friends of the Global Development Initiative” to promote its own definitions of key concepts in an effort to undercut those used by the US-led west. One of these is “true multilateralism”, which it defines as equal status for all countries. The whole idea of [China’s definition of] multilateralism is to oppose what Beijing sees as American hegemony

This vision is distinct from what China sees as the abuses of the US-led world order, which it characterises as “bloc politics under the disguise of multilateralism” or attempts to impose the “rules made by a few countries” under the pretext of multilateralism, according to an official Chinese document.

“The whole idea of [China’s definition of] multilateralism is to oppose what Beijing sees as American hegemony,” says Collin Koh, senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

Another key Chinese strategy is to present itself as a global peacemaker, partly to counter the repetitional damage it suffered when its strategic partner, Russia, invaded Ukraine last year. Crucial to this ambition is the Global Security Initiative (GSI), which was launched this year by Xi and is designed as a China-led multilateral forum.

Its aim is to wrest influence away from the US on global security issues while elevating its own role, officials say. Part of the strategy to achieve this is to call for a “bigger UN role in security affairs” while expanding Beijing’s own role within the UN peacekeeping hierarchy.

This focus on the UN echoes that of the GDI and highlights a crucial feature of Xi’s three initiatives: rather than seeking to create a whole new world order, Beijing’s aim is to repurpose the UN’s authority to more squarely serve China.

China is the second largest contributor — after the US — to the UN’s peacekeeping budget and it supplies more UN peacekeeping troops than the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council combined, according to Courtney Fung’s research. Over a dozen Chinese officers have had top military posts in the UN’s Department of Peace Operations, a foundation stone in the UN architecture, Fung adds.

Although the DPO has been led by French officials since 1997, Beijing hopes that in time one of its officials will be chosen either to lead the DPO or one of its three main offices, Chinese officials say. Chinese peacekeepers deployed by the UN Mission in South Sudan patrol the UN Protection of Civilians site in Juba in 2016.

For Beijing, the prestige it accords UN peacekeeping is part of a bigger push to align itself with the cause of peace. In March, it brokered a landmark deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, ending a seven-year rift. In May, Xi proposed a four-point plan aimed at working towards peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Officials from Beijing also attended a forum held this month in Saudi Arabia on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. European officials told the FT that China’s participation had been “constructive” and said that Beijing had signalled its willingness to attend further talks.

Institutional expansion

In spite of its official adherence to “true multilateralism” — the concept of equal status for all states — China has a complex position on reforming the UN. It relishes its position as one of the five permanent members — along with the US, UK, France and Russia — of the UN Security Council “P5”, which allows it to veto resolutions. ç

It is understood to be open to the idea of expanding the permanent membership from the current five. But it privately opposes the inclusion of Japan and India, both of which are strategic rivals to China, according to diplomats, who declined to be identified. This opposition in effect stymies a proposal to accept the “G4” — Germany, Brazil, India and Japan — as permanent members.

To Collin Koh, this stance lays bare the hollowness of China’s claim to want to bring true multilateralism to the UN decision-making process. “I don’t think China is trying . . . to devolve major decision-making authority from the P5,” Koh says. “But of course this would not stop Beijing from continuing to put itself up as the unwavering, faithful leading advocate of the global south.”

Beyond the UN, China has a raft of plans to boost the participation of developing countries in international forums and, in so doing, to bolster its own standing.

In the G20, which Beijing treats as a key forum to engage with the west, China became the first country last year to push for membership for the African Union, which comprises 55 member states from the continent. If membership is granted at a summit scheduled for September in New Delhi, the G20’s membership will expand to 21 and developing world representation will grow close to parity with that of the developed world.

China is also hoping to expand the Brics group beyond its current members — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — so that it becomes a counterweight to the G7, a group of developed powers. More than 20 countries have submitted applications to join the grouping at a summit this week in South Africa, diplomats said.

Another multilateral organisation in the throes of expansion is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a security grouping founded by China that has nine countries as full members and is due to absorb Belarus as its tenth. Four of the members — China, Russia, India and Pakistan — are nuclear powers and Moscow sees the group “as the core of a China- and Russian-led anti-western bloc,” according to a paper from the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.

Nevertheless, the SCO’s membership also betrays a common flaw with Chinese multilateralism. The opaque parameters it uses to launch its initiatives and institutions allows countries to look past the rivalries they have with others in the group. But it does nothing to heal the rifts.

Thus the SCO embraces both Pakistan and India, which acknowledge their mutually hostile ties. India’s relationship with China itself is also tense on several fronts.

“The vague language of most of the initiatives made it easy for countries to pay lip service to them. China could then point to this rhetorical support as evidence that a large number of countries backed its world view,” says Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a think-tank in Washington.

“However, these countries would only be willing to accommodate China’s demands up to a certain point. When push came to shove, they would follow their own interests,” she adds.

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Source: NYT, BRICS leaders in Brasília in 2019.Credit...Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters

The BRICS Club of Emerging Nations Debates Letting Others In

China wants to expand the five-nation bloc, but the members’ conflicting interests may get in the way.

NYT By David Pierson, Lynsey Chutel, Jack Nicas, Alex Travelli, and Paul Sonne, today.

The journalists, who cover the BRICS nations, reported from Hong Kong; Johannesburg; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; New Delhi, India; and Berlin.

The group of nations known as BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — represents 40 percent of the world’s population and a quarter of the world’s economy. Now it is considering expanding, in a push to be seen as a credible counterweight to Western-led forums like the G7 group of advanced nations.

But the challenge for the club is that it is as divergent as it is large, and hindered by sometimes conflicting interests and internal rivalries. It comprises the world’s largest authoritarian state (China) and its largest democracy (India), economies big and small, and relations with the United States that run the gamut, from friend to foe.

China, under Xi Jinping, wants to expand BRICS, seeing in it a platform to challenge American power. Russia is keen to demonstrate that Moscow has loyal allies despite its isolation from the West over the war in Ukraine. India, locked in a territorial dispute with China, is wary of Beijing’s dominance in the club.

Brazil and South Africa, the other swing states of the developing world, want good relations with China and Russia, but not to be overly aligned with either, for fear of alienating the United States.

As leaders of the five nations meet starting Tuesday at an annual summit, this time in Johannesburg, how they navigate those differences might determine whether the group becomes a geopolitical coalition or remains largely focused on financial issues such as reducing the dominance of the dollar in the global economy.

The task of finding common ground is only getting harder as the great power competition between Beijing and Washington intensifies, placing pressure on other nations to choose sides. And as Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, the conflict is roiling food and energy prices for many of the poorer countries that BRICS members claim to represent.

“China under Xi is looking to use BRICS for its own purposes, particularly in extending its influence in the Global South,” said Steve Tsang, the director of the SOAS China Institute in London. “India is highly unlikely to go along with it as the Chinese proposal will turn BRICS into something else — one which will serve primarily Chinese interests.”

Dozens of countries have expressed interest in joining the club. They include countries that fall squarely in the Chinese camp, like Iran and Belarus, and nonaligned states such as Egypt and Kazakhstan, reflecting a desire to hedge between China and United States in the face of geopolitical polarization.

The question of expansion will be leading the agenda of the three-day summit, to be attended in person by President Xi of China, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is expected to take part remotely. Mr. Putin, who is wanted by an international court that has accused him of war crimes, had earlier planned on attending in person. He decided against it, sparing South Africa the dilemma of whether to arrest him.

China, which as the biggest economy in the group holds significant clout, will want to use the club to show that Beijing has its own circle of influence, after President Biden held a summit strengthening alliances last week with Japan and South Korea, nations in China’s backyard.

Beijing favors a rapid expansion of BRICS, which would also allow China to argue it has widespread support from the developing world.

“The Global South is not happy about the G7 trying to represent them, so they’re voting with their feet to join BRICS,” said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.

India has signaled that it prefers a more cautious approach that would limit Beijing’s ability to use the BRICS club to confront the West. It will want to avoid diluting its own role in favor of countries that might pick China over India in any tussle for influence.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, right, welcoming President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, center, is watched by India’s president, Droupadi Murmu, left, in New Delhi, in January.Credit...Manish Swarup/Associated Press

India’s divergence with China reflects wider tensions and distrust between the two countries that were inflamed by a deadly border clash in 2020 and by India’s participation in a security grouping with the United States, Japan and Australia called the Quad.

India has emphasized that it is open to enlarging BRICS in principle, but wants to develop standards for deciding on new members, and to ensure that any changes are based on consensus.

Brazil has a similar position on the acceptance of new members.

“If they comply with the rules that we are establishing, we will accept their entry,” President Lula of Brazil told reporters this month.

Some of the requirements likely to be discussed include a minimum population or gross domestic product, as well as a willingness to work with the bloc’s New Development Bank, said one Brazilian government official helping plan for the talks who is not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Brazil wants the group to remain a club of large, emerging economies rather than a geopolitical alliance that could be perceived as an anti-Western bloc, said a second Brazilian official helping to plan for the talks.

Mr. Lula said he supported at least three countries joining BRICS: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Argentina. He also suggested that Indonesia, which is widely seen as a natural fit given its size and location, would be a welcome addition.

An expansion, though, could make consensus in BRICS even more elusive. “When you have more countries join, and it’s such a disparate group to begin with, it’s harder to get anything accomplished,” said Theresa Fallon, director of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies in Brussels.

From Russia’s perspective, the summit will provide an opportunity to court the developing world again, after Mr. Putin hosted African leaders in St. Petersburg this summer.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, and President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, onscreen, seen during the second Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, last month.Credit...Vladimir Smirnov/Tass, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

But the foreign minister of Russia, Sergei V. Lavrov, who will travel to South Africa in Mr. Putin’s place, will likely face questions about why Russia pulled out of a United Nations-brokered deal with Ukraine that allowed the export of grain through the Black Sea. Food prices jumped after the collapse of the agreement.

BRICS members have struggled to show consensus on Russia’s war in Ukraine: China has leaned toward the Kremlin, while India has relied on a strategy of nonalignment. Brazil has offered rhetoric but little action.

South Africa, the group’s smallest member in terms of population and economy, has faced international and domestic criticism for its close ties to Moscow.

South Africa made a show of its neutrality when its president, Mr. Ramaphosa, led a peace mission of African leaders to meet with Mr. Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine last month. Still, those talks are yet to yield tangible results.

South Africa bowed to Western pressure when it asked Mr. Putin to attend the summit virtually because of his arrest warrant. But the country is still trying to assert itself, defying what it sees as arm-twisting from the West to isolate Russia. Zaheer Laher, an official in South Africa’s foreign affairs ministry, went so far as to liken Russia’s isolation to “cancel culture.”

South Africa, the last country to join the bloc, in 2010 on China’s invitation, will also have to walk a fine diplomatic line with its allies in the West. In the coming months, South Africa will turn its attention to its second largest trading partner after China — the United States — hosting a meeting about a continental trade agreement.

“It almost feels that in South Africa, the heart is in the east, the money is in the west,” said Gustavo de Carvalho, a researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs.

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Exclusive: Northvolt raises $1.2 billion in latest funding round for factory build out - CFO

REuters By Supantha Mukherjee and Simon Jessop, August 22, 2023

STOCKHOLM/LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Swedish lithium-ion battery producer Northvolt has raised $1.2 billion from investors including BlackRock (BLK.N) and several Canadian pension plans as it prepares to build new factories in Europe and North America, its finance chief told Reuters.

The fresh funding, through a convertible note, comes as investor demand for companies set to benefit from the move to a low-carbon economy picks up pace, aided by policy initiatives in both regions to accelerate the transition.

"It's a very capital intensive industry... finding the right mix is always hard in this new greenfield kind of transitional projects," Chief Financial Officer Alexander Hartman said in an interview.

Leading the round alongside BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, were Canada Pension Plan, Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System and, as previously reported, pension investor Investment Management Corporation of Ontario.

"The battery manufacturing sector has attractive growth potential driven by the accelerating adoption of battery storage and electric vehicles," said David Giordano, global head of climate infrastructure at BlackRock.

"As a leading investor in the energy transition, we look forward to supporting their continued growth."

Other investors to take part included Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), Baillie Gifford, Swedbank Robur (SWEDa.ST), Singapore's GIC and Hong Kong-based Chow Tai Fook Enterprises.

A number of funds to invest in the note were classed as 'dark green' under the European Union's sustainable finance framework, a stamp of environmental approval that bodes well for future interest in the company, which ultimately hopes to list, Hartman said.

The fresh funds will help the firm expand its factory footprint, Hartman said. The firm currently has several factories across Europe with the latest a 600 million euros ($654 million) investment to build a plant in Germany, announced in May.

While the company has a facility in the United States, sources said the company is close to finalising plans to build a multibillion-dollar battery factory in Canada that will be announced later this year.

Northvolt declined to comment on the factory plans.

With the latest round, Northvolt has raised more than $9 billion in debt and equity since 2017 in its bid to become Europe's biggest battery manufacturer, including $1.1 billion in convertible notes last year from multiple investors.

It has secured orders of over $55 billion from customers such as BMW, Fluence, Scania, Volvo Cars and Volkswagen.

Separately, Northvolt has assembled its first energy storage system products in Poland and expects to start customer deliveries from later this year.

"We have a business plan... we always want to make sure we have access to the markets," Hartman said.

He declined to comment on whether the company was preparing to go public.

Reuters has previously reported, citing sources, that Northvolt was preparing for an initial public offering that could value the company at more than $20 billion.

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Masatsugu Shibata, a fisherman near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, is concerned the plan to release the water will threaten his livelihood.Credit...Noriko Hayashi for The New York Times

Japan to Release Treated Water From Ruined Nuclear Plant Despite Concerns

In the face of regional and domestic objections, the country plans to proceed with a discharge at Fukushima that will eventually reach more than a million tons of water.

NYT by Motoko Rich and Hisako Ueno, reporting from Tokyo and Iwaki in Japan, published August 21, 2023.

Japan will begin releasing treated radioactive wastewater from the ruined Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant into the ocean this week, its government said on Tuesday, setting aside regional and domestic objections as it moves to eventually discharge over a million tons of the water into the sea.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made the announcement after a meeting of his cabinet, saying the release would begin on Thursday if weather and ocean conditions allowed.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said in July that the government’s plan met the agency’s safety standards, and it has said that releasing the treated water is not likely to pose a serious health threat to humans.

But some scientists have raised questions about whether the Japanese government and the company that operated the plant, Tokyo Electric Power, have been sufficiently forthcoming about what radioactive material may remain in the holding tanks.

The Chinese government, which has strongly opposed the plan, warned on Tuesday that it would take “all necessary measures” to safeguard the marine environment, food safety and public health. A large segment of the South Korean public also objects to the discharge, as do fishing groups and others in Japan.

Mr. Kishida visited the wrecked nuclear plant on Sunday and met with leaders of the Japanese fishery industry in Tokyo on Monday, vowing to ensure that fishermen can continue to make a living after the release.

Masanobu Sakamoto, head of the National Federation of Fisheries Cooperative Associations, said that while many of his group’s members had come to accept the government’s assurances on the safety of the discharge, it remained opposed because of the potential effects on fishermen’s livelihoods.

Since an earthquake and tsunami triggered a triple meltdown in Fukushima in 2011, the question of what to do with the accumulating tons of water used to cool nuclear fuel rods has been one of the biggest challenges facing both the government and Tokyo Electric.

For Japan, it is as much a political problem as it is an engineering or environmental one. Despite the determination by the international agency that it was safe to release the water, opponents at home and in neighboring countries have questioned both the government and the agency’s motives. When Japan’s cabinet approved the treated-water plan in 2021, it described the controlled ocean release as the best available disposal option.

People’s Daily, a state media organization owned by the Communist Party in China, has referred to the treated water as Japan’s “nuclear sewage.” And in South Korea, where seafood imports from waters near Fukushima are still banned, an opposition lawmaker warned that “no one can tell or predict for sure what the discharging of radioactive materials into the sea over an extended period of time will bring about.”

In Japan, both Fukushima and national fisheries associations have said they fear that once Tokyo Electric starts releasing the water, both domestic and international customers may be reluctant to eat fish from the region.

Although it has been a dozen years since the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl forced tens of thousands of people to flee the area around the ruined Fukushima plant, the cleanup is still in an early phase. The government says the water release is likely to take place over a period of 30 years.

Fish for sale in Naraha, Fukushima prefecture, in 2019. Japanese fisheries associations fear that both domestic and international customers may be reluctant to eat fish from the region once the water is released.Credit...Ko Sasaki for The New York Times

The water is stored in more than 1,000 sky-blue tanks lined up on the site of the plant. Tokyo Electric — or Tepco, as it is known — pumps the water through the destroyed reactors to cool melted fuel that is still too hot and radioactive to remove.

As the water passes through the reactors, it accumulates radioactive nuclides. Tepco is putting the water through a powerful filtration system, in some cases repeatedly, that is designed to remove all the radioactive material except for tritium, a hydrogen isotope. Experts say tritium does not harm human health in small doses, and it is prohibitively expensive to remove in any case.

Other nuclear plants around the world, including in China, South Korea and the United States, use similar processes to treat cooling water, and also release water containing tritium into the oceans after such filtration.

Still, some scientists have questions. According to Tepco’s website, just 30 percent of the approximately 473,000 tons of water in the tanks have been fully treated to the point that only tritium remains.

“The idea is, ‘just trust us,’” said Ken Buesseler, a marine radiochemist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Dr. Buesseler said that while tritium is “one of the least dangerous” radioactive materials, others, like cesium or cobalt, could be more hazardous if they are released into the ocean.

He said the government had not investigated alternative options such as building more tanks or using the treated water to make cement. “I think they just want the cheapest, fastest solution, which is a pipe in the ocean,” Dr. Buesseler said.

Kazuya Idemitsu, a professor of nuclear engineering at Tohoku University, said he was confident that the international agency would monitor the water release to ensure that only water containing tritium and no other radioactive material will be piped into the sea.

Dr. Idemitsu said that much of the public’s anxiety stemmed from the highly technical nature of the treatment process and the government’s difficulties in communicating the science.

Among fishermen who rely on the ocean waters off Fukushima for their daily catches, what matters is what would-be customers think.

“It’s a life-or-death issue for fishermen,” said Masatsugu Shibata, 67, who took his 40-foot fishing trawler out from a port at Iwaki in Fukushima before dawn on a recent morning and caught about a dozen large flounder. “I will be in trouble if they discharge” the water.

Mr. Shibata, who hopes to pass his fishing operation on to his son and grandson some day, said the fishing business had recovered only about 20 percent of its pre-disaster levels. When the water is released, he said, “there will definitely be reactions, for sure,” adding, “Many people would stop eating fish.”

“Now the government says it’s safe,” he said. “But safety and peace of mind are different.”

The government has already paid a total of 10 trillion yen ($68.4 billion) in compensation to fishermen, farmers and evacuated residents from Fukushima and other affected prefectures since 2011 to help make up for losses that resulted from the disaster.

Some countries have signaled their support for the government’s plan. Last week, before President Biden hosted Mr. Kishida and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea at Camp David, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said that the United States was satisfied with Japan’s plan. In July, the European Union lifted all restrictions on fish and agricultural imports from Fukushima. The region had blocked shipments of products since the disaster.

While South Korea still bans seafood imports from waters off Fukushima, Mr. Yoon has endorsed the Japanese government plan amid recent warming relations between the two countries.

Opposition lawmakers have attacked Mr. Yoon for supporting the plan, with one accusing him of defending Japan “like a parrot.”

“We cannot let a government policy crucial for the people’s life and safety be decided by the president’s personal friendly feeling and intimacy toward Japan,” said Lee Byunghoon, an opposition lawmaker.

The Chinese government has been especially critical of Japan’s plan to release treated water at Fukushima, and has rejected the international agency’s report as insufficient proof that the release poses no undue risks.

Tensions between China and Japan are running high following the signing late last week of a trilateral security agreement between Japan, South Korea and the United States.

Chinese internet users responded angrily to the news on Tuesday, calling for boycotts of Japanese goods and posting racist comments.

“Japan has started a new form of nuclear war. We should reject Japanese products and restaurants,” read one comment under an article about the planned release from Mengma News, a media property operated by the government of Henan Province.

Hong Kong’s leader, John Lee, said that he was strongly opposed to Japan’s plan and had asked city departments to “immediately activate import control measures.”

China itself operates nuclear reactors along its seacoast, using seawater instead of scarce freshwater to cool the steam from reactors.

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• She had eyes only for her father as he faltered.

• Their boots told a tale of peril: For years, few dared cross the Gap, which links Colombia to Panama.

  Description text goes here

• The mud is so deep it can swallow a person whole. Behind them was the trail of debris migrants leave behind as they go through their provisions -- or just try to lighten their load.

  Description text goes here

• The sleeping mat was bought in Colombia, as the family was about to enter the Gap. Many migrants bring them. Many end up abandoning them.

  Description text goes here

IN ONE IMAGE: The Steepest Hill

NYT By Federico Rios, Today

When I first met Mr. Arias, something extraordinary was happening.

Venezuelans in never-before-seen numbers had given up on their country, an economic basket case, and were heading north. By the end of that year, more than 150,000 of them had arrived at the border between Mexico and the United States.

Mr. Arias, 27, was traveling not just with his daughter, who was on his shoulders much of the time, but with his wife, Desyree, and 7-year-old son, Luis Breyner. His mother-in-law and brother-in-law were also with them.

It was still early in the morning when I took this photo. A long day of travel lay ahead of the family, and more long days after that. A strong hiker might make the end of the Gap in four or five days. For travelers with young children, it could easily be double that.

But Mr. Arias had a more immediate problem: a hill. When he came to it, he just stopped, put down his pack, and sat. It was not clear if he could go on, but after about 15 minutes, he did.

Later, he told me that back in Venezuela, he studied industrial mechanics and worked at his father’s auto repair shop. He and his wife also had a food stall. But struggling to feed their family, they decided to try their luck elsewhere.

In 2019, they went to Colombia, where they opened another food stall and Mr. Arias also drove a motorcycle taxi and did some construction. But again it was not enough. It was time to move again.

As we made our way through the Gap in September, I saw the family from time to time, but eventually our ways parted. Later, as they crossed Central America, we kept in touch through social media. In mid-March, I heard from them again: They had just made into the U.S., applying for asylum as they crossed through border control in Texas in March.

Nearly a year later, Mr. Arias remembers the day he came to a halt on the Darién Gap.

“It was all very sudden,” he recalled. He said: “I felt like my stomach was empty. I started to vomit, and I felt very bad. Because those hills are very bad.”

The family is living in Palo Alto, Calif., now. Mr. Arias is waiting for a work permit, and his wife is occasionally doing manicures. Their son will enter fourth grade in the fall, and their daughter will start kindergarten.

Mr. Arias remembers something else about the moment the photo was taken: how ashamed he felt of his weakness, with his children looking on. But that feeling seems lost to the past now.

“I took a risk but I made it,” he says. “I risked it for them. For me it’s an achievement because of that, because I managed to bring my whole family.”

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News Round-Up, August 21, 2023

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Climate Change and Health Impacts by the Way of Today's California Floods

Climate change has become a significant concern of our time, with numerous implications across different realms of human existence. As the world faces the worsening outcomes of climate change, one aspect that demands urgent notice is its effects on human health. The current flooding in California serves as a clear indication of how climate change disrupts our surroundings and challenges our welfare. (1)

California, well-known for its sunny weather and barren terrain, is unfortunately accustomed to enduring periods of drought and wildfires. However, recent events have demonstrated a concerning trend: a substantial increase in severe climatic conditions, such as floods, that differ from the typical weather patterns of the region. These floods are evolving and posing significant risks to public health. (2)

Moreover, the floods themselves can cause immediate health hazards. They could create a conducive environment for waterborne diseases to spread. Microorganisms, such as bacteria, viruses, and parasites, can transmit diseases such as cholera, typhoid fever, and gastrointestinal infections. Additionally, when the floodwater recedes, it forms stagnant pools of water acting as breeding sites for mosquitoes, which can spread vector-borne diseases like dengue fever. (3)

Floods have severe social and economic implications that have a disproportionate effect on the most susceptible communities. Lower-income communities, typically situated in flood-prone areas, are disproportionately impacted by these calamities. (4)

Meanwhile, certain regions of the world are undergoing scorching heatwaves that have transformed some cities into public saunas. At the same time, the frightening expansion of unmanageable wildfires is a bleak reminder of the link between our surroundings. In the midst of these devastating circumstances, it is essential to give priority to our well-being. Preserving ourselves through self-preservation is crucial, as our health is intertwined with that of the planet. It is our responsibility. (5)

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Most read…

Biden faces calls to declare climate emergency as he heads to Maui

Climate groups and many of the president’s allies in Congress urge him to invoke emergency powers to mitigate environmental threats.

Politico Eu By MYAH WARD, August 8, 2023

TROPICAL STORM HILARY LIVE UPDATESCalifornia hit with flooding, mudslides, earthquake

The Washington Post, Now

EXCLUSIVE: The à la carte world: our new geopolitical order

With the US and China at loggerheads, a range of ‘middle powers’ see an opening to pursue their interests

FT by Alec Russell in London 6 HOURS 

Wealthy oil nation lays groundwork for ‘eye-popping’ climate fund

The United Arab Emirates has drawn a backlash from climate advocates for its role hosting the global climate talks, but the massive fund it’s considering would help countries green their economies.

POLITICO EU By ZACK COLMAN and KARL MATHIESEN, August 18, 2023 

World’s first wind-powered freighter sets off on maiden voyage

Pyxis Ocean bulk carrier fitted with revolutionary 120ft fibreglass ‘sails’ has reached more than five and a half knots on wind power alone

The Telegraph By Sarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR21 August 2023 

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Biden faces calls to declare climate emergency as he heads to Maui

Climate groups and many of the president’s allies in Congress urge him to invoke emergency powers to mitigate environmental threats.

Politico Eu By MYAH WARD, August 8, 2023

As President Joe Biden prepares to visit Maui, the Hawaiian island devastated by the deadliest wildfire in U.S. modern history, lawmakers and climate groups are begging the White House to do more to prevent future climate-related disasters.

Their argument: If the latest environmental catastrophe won’t spur the president into action, what will?

The fires, likely sparked by the island’s electric utility and heightened by climate change impacts, swept through the Pacific paradise last week, killing at least 110 people and leaving the famed town of Lahaina smoldering in ruins. As survivors search for missing family members and friends, and a housing crisis unfolds amid the vast destruction, climate activists and members of Congress are urging Biden to declare a national emergency over climate change.

It isn’t the first time the White House has faced calls to take this step, but the ongoing crisis in Hawaii and a string of climate events this summer — including this weekend’s first-ever tropical storm warning for southern California — have intensified the appeals, building pressure on the president ahead of his scheduled trip to the island disaster site Monday.

The fires, likely sparked by Maui’s electric utility and heightened by climate change impacts, swept through the Pacific paradise last week, killing at least 110 people | Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

“Even when I talk about this issue, I tend to say things like, ‘I want to make sure my children have clean air and water — that they have running water. That they have a livable planet when they’re my age.’ But that’s not right. Tomorrow, you could wake up and your whole community could be ashes,” said Kaniela Ing, a seventh-generation indigenous Hawaiian from Maui and the national director of the Green New Deal Network, a climate justice organization.

“That’s the urgency we’re operating under,” he added, “so if there was ever a moment to declare a climate emergency, it is right now.”

Alongside climate groups, many of Biden’s allies in Congress have urged him to invoke emergency powers, which would enable the president to take sweeping action to restrain greenhouse gas production, implement large-scale clean transportation solutions and finance distributed energy projects, among other actions.

“The devastation in Maui is a clear sign that the president must declare a climate emergency — now. While FEMA is providing resources to the local heroes on the ground fighting for the lives and livelihoods of Hawaiians, the underlying climate-driven conditions of drought, extreme heat, environmental injustice, and non-resilient infrastructure will remain,” Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said in a statement to POLITICO.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), who has long called on Biden to take this step, said that if the devastation in Hawaii isn’t a national emergency, “what is?”

“I refuse to accept that people choosing between burning alive or jumping into the ocean for hours on end is our new normal. This is a crisis and we need to treat it that way. That starts with President Biden declaring a national climate emergency to unlock vast federal resources and emergency powers to help our communities prepare for and recover from these deadly climate disasters,” he added.

Declaring a climate emergency could come with political risks for an incumbent president heading into an election year, potentially spurring a spike in already high gas prices. Plus, any executive action Biden takes would likely face legal challenges, including going up against a conservative Supreme Court that has already ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency does not have the broad authority to rein in carbon pollution.

Biden says he and first lady will visit Hawaii ‘as soon as we can’

Still, advocates and lawmakers are pushing the president to be bold amid the latest crisis, arguing that the move would also reap political benefits among disillusioned young voters, as well as communities of color who have been disproportionately harmed by the effects of climate change.

While polls show that many Americans say they have heard little about the Inflation Reduction Act — the largest climate-focused investment in U.S. history — headlines on climate events have been continuous, and Biden’s approval for a massive oil drilling project in Alaska known as Willow earlier this year drew fierce opposition. Declaring a climate emergency would send a clear signal to these voters, Ing said.

“If he did that next week in Hawaii, I’d be standing right next to him. I’d be telling all my friends. I’d be campaigning for him all the way up until November. Because the stakes are too high to not. This is our last chance. There are six years left to really hit the transition — to decarbonize at the rate we need to. So this election, this is it,” he said.

The White House has so far avoided committing to an official declaration, while the president earlier this month said he has already “practically” declared a climate emergency.

Last week, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that the president has called the climate crisis an emergency since “day one,” noting that Biden has used the Defense Production Act to jumpstart heat-pump manufacturing and the building of the electric grid. He’s also used the DPA to deploy money to stand up solar manufacturing and source needed materials for electric vehicles.

“While we’re trying to deal with this existential threat, this climate change crisis, the president is doing everything that he can to make sure that we are dealing with this … in a way that actually leads to results,” Jean-Pierre said Monday when asked if the president was considering declaring a national emergency. “And that’s what the president is going to continue to do.”

She also pointed to the Inflation Reduction Act’s investment in combating climate change, which the White House celebrated last week on the legislation’s one-year anniversary.

The work of the Sunrise Movement and other climate organizations has been credited with playing a key role in the passage of the country’s first climate law, which Evan Weber, a co-founder of Sunrise, says is his life’s greatest accomplishment.

Weber lives in Oahu and has been working to assist with recovery efforts in his state, as his friends in Lahaina continue to search for family members. Watching the anniversary celebration in Washington this week while his state burned and survivors provided DNA swabs to identify the ashes of their loved ones was painful, said Weber, who co-founded the nonprofit Our Hawai’i.

“The president and his Cabinet members often talk about the Inflation Reduction Act, the bipartisan infrastructure law as once-in-a-generation investments. And I think if that’s true, we are going to see a lot more Lahainas in the future,” Weber said, adding that Biden has done a lot of work on climate. “But we also really need him to know that just being the greatest president on climate action in United States history is the lowest bar in the world to clear, and it is not the same as acting at the scale of what science and the reality of our people on the ground demands.”

The federal response in Hawaii has been strong, Ing said, and the community is grateful for Biden’s upcoming visit. The president moved quickly to declare a major disaster declaration: There are over 1,000 federal responders on Maui and Oahu, and the government has provided over $7 million in financial assistance to nearly 2,200 households, Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator Deanne Criswell told reporters Saturday.

There are also 450 search and rescue teams on the ground, with 60 percent of the affected area searched as of Saturday afternoon. The shelter population also continues to fall, Criswell said, as FEMA, the Red Cross and the state pay for residents to transition into hotels.

Details of the president’s trip are still in flux, Criswell said, so it’s not yet clear if Biden will survey damage on the ground or fly over the path of destruction.

The president has vowed that Hawaii will get “everything it needs” and wants to meet with survivors who have been directly affected Monday, Criswell said. The hope among activists is that after the president sees the devastation in person, and hears directly from the people of Maui and Lahaina, that his promise will also include an official climate emergency declaration.

“It’s all coming to a head, and we’re just in a moment now where this makes the most sense,” said Michele Weindling, electoral director at Sunrise. “From every angle that you look at it, it is so clear that Biden making a climate emergency official is the no-brainer choice.”

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Source: Media

TROPICAL STORM HILARY LIVE UPDATESCalifornia hit with flooding, mudslides, earthquake

The Washington Post, Now

Tropical Storm Hilary is deluging Southern California, with much of the damage expected to become clear at daybreak Monday. Hilary is likely to bring “catastrophic and life-threatening flooding” to portions of the Southwestern United States and the Baja California region in Mexico through Monday, the National Hurricane Center warned. Tens of millions of people were under a tropical storm warning, the first of its kind issued for Southern California. Heavy rainfall and flooding are expected in parts of Arizona and Nevada.

Here’s what to know

• The storm is moving northeast from landfall in Southern California, and is forecast to reach Nevada early Monday, the NHC said in an advisory late Sunday local time. “A brief tornado or two will be possible” in southeastern California, northwest Arizona, southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, the NHC said.

• Much of Southern California was under a tropical storm warning, from the border with Mexico up to Point Mugu, up the coast from Malibu. Catalina Island, a popular tourist destination, was also under the warning.

• A man was killed Sunday in Mexico’s Baja California Sur, authorities said, after water swept away his car.

• A magnitude-5.1 earthquake shook parts of Southern California on Sunday afternoon, triggering an emergency mobile alert to residents in Los Angeles County and surrounding areas. The National Weather Service said a tsunami was not expecte

When will the rain subside?

Torrential rain and severe flooding are ongoing, hitting the mountains north and east of Los Angeles hardest, where rainfall totals have reached 4 to 8 inches. Downpours will continue for another few hours in these areas but should start to ease a little Monday after midnight local time.

The rain will take longer to relent in the Sierra Nevada, where it won’t dry out until closer to dawn Monday. This also holds true for central and southern Nevada.

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Source: FT

The à la carte world: our new geopolitical order

With the US and China at loggerheads, a range of ‘middle powers’ see an opening to pursue their interests

FT by Alec Russell in London 6 HOURS 

For a telling insight into the seismic changes reshaping the global order, it is worth a glance at the official schedule of Kenya’s diplomats. There was a time when they were called upon to host delegations from global powers relatively rarely. No longer. Now there is barely a slot free in their calendar.

In the early summer Nairobi hosted in quick succession US officials to discuss a free trade deal, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to address parliament, and EU officials to sign a trade agreement.

Kenya’s military commanders have an impressively full dance card too: in May, for example, an Indian frigate anchored off Mombasa for a joint naval exercise, even as British Royal Marines trained Kenya’s first commando unit.

All the while China, which two decades ago identified Kenya as a vital partner in Africa, in its then fledgling courtship of the continent, is investing in infrastructure leading from the Indian Ocean coast to the interior. China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, popped by in July. Oh yes, and Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi had a red-carpet reception in Kenya in July at the start of an African tour.

Welcome to the à la carte world. As the post-cold war age of America as a sole superpower fades, the old era when countries had to choose from a prix fixe menu of alliances is shifting into a more fluid order. The stand-off between Washington and Beijing, and the west’s effective abandonment of its three-decade dream that the gospel of free markets would lead to a more liberal version of the Chinese Communist party, are presenting an opportunity for much of the world: not just to be wooed but also to play one off against the other — and many are doing this with alacrity and increasing skill.

The rise of the middle powers This is the first in a series on how the stand-off between America and China has ushered in a new era of opportunity for countries across the world Part II tomorrow: Beijing’s blueprint for an alternative world order

“For Kenya and others it’s not a question of picking sides. It’s a question of picking everyone,” says Michael Power, a Cape-Town based investment analyst, most recently for Ninety One, who has devoted his career to following emerging markets.

“We should no longer talk of the non-aligned movement,” he adds, referring to the group of African, Asian and Latin American countries, formed in the cold war, and avowedly neutral in the contest between the west and the Soviet Union.

“But of the multi-aligned movement.”

It is 15 years since the first round of this phenomenon when the G20 found its voice and role in shoring up the global economy during the financial crisis — as captured by the commentator Fareed Zakaria in his 2008 essay, The Rise of The Rest. Now, however, with the US and China at loggerheads, the G20 is more divided and less effective and a new more opportunistic era is under way.

One senior western policymaker, privy to thinking in the west and China, sees it as a “once-in-a-generation shift”. Western diplomats talk of the era of “fence-sitters” and “swing states”. For Ivan Krastev, the political scientist, it is the age of the middle powers. The word “middle”, he stresses, refers to their position — in between the US and China — rather than their weighting.

His vision encompasses a range of distinctly un-middling countries including traditional US allies such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel and even Germany, as well as titans of the global south, such as Indonesia and India, patently a rising great power.

“This geostrategic entrepreneurialism reflects the evolution of the global order into an archipelago over the past decade,” says Nader Mousavizadeh, an adviser to Kofi Annan, when he was UN secretary-general, and who is the chief executive of Macro Advisory Partners, a strategic advisory firm.

“The shift has to be seen as structural, secular and not cyclical.” “The fact that the relationship between Washington and Beijing has become adversarial rather than competitive has opened up space for other actors to develop more effective bilateral relationships with each of the big powers but also to develop deeper strategic relationships with each other.”

Beyond the Brics

This new less regimented landscape most obviously benefits the global south, the loose term broadly synonymous with the developing economies of Latin America, Africa and Asia. Their heightened ambitions will be on display in South Africa in mid-August at the summit of the Brics nations, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

The Brics was formalised in the aftermath of the financial crisis drawing on a classic jazzy bankers’ acronym — it was coined by Goldman Sachs economists — when their interests were more aligned than now. The founding four later invited South Africa, a relative economic minnow, to join; its inclusion brought Africa into the group. Now after some years treading water, the Brics is gathering momentum. Symbolically at least the summit has the potential for being seen as the 21st-century equivalent of the Bandung conference of 1955, which launched the non-aligned movement.

Top of the agenda is the application of 22 countries to join, and which if any to accept. The eclectic roll call of suitors includes global south ideological stalwarts such as Venezuela and Vietnam, but also Middle East actors such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran, and powerhouses from other regions, including Indonesia, Nigeria and Mexico.

Add all of them, and the block would represent 45 per cent of the global economy. Even a more limited expansion would create a behemoth accounting for almost half the world’s population and 35 per cent of its economy, says Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s ambassador to the Brics who is co-ordinating the summit. He anticipates “a more ambitious agenda and more forceful position, including a strong push for reform of the global political, economic and financial architecture”.

The anticipated arguments behind the scenes over who should join underline that it may be easier to articulate the Brics’ ambitions than realise them. They and potential new members have very different and in some cases rivalrous interests. China, for example, has no desire to see India or Brazil join them on the top table at the UN Security Council — nor is it in favour of a multipolar world, whatever it may say in public.

But however the Brics develops, the summit does underline the broader phenomenon. To understand the new room for manoeuvre, Krastev argues that talk of the rise of a new cold war between America and China is misleading.

“Don’t focus on US-China competition, as they are not going to be able to discipline fragmentation as Russia and America did in the cold war,” he says.

“The middle powers may not be big enough or strong enough to shape the international order, but their ambition is to increase their relevance.

“Their overactivity is going to make them unpredictable,” he adds. “Their activism is contagious. When I think of them, I am reminded of a line from a nonsense novel I read as a child: ‘Lord Ronald flung himself from the room, flung himself upon his horse, and rode madly off in all directions.’”

In its stance over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey is a case study of a country choosing sometimes to align itself with the west and sometimes to stand against it. Its unpredictability was to the fore this summer at the Nato summit when it did a U-turn in allowing Sweden to join the alliance.

Western officials see Saudi Arabia and the UAE very much in this category of states behaving more assertively on the global stage and more independently of their traditional ally, America. Policymakers in Brussels have noted their intensified engagement in the politics of the Horn of Africa, for example, and also of course Saudi Arabia’s hosting of a Ukrainian peace talks, and concluded that the EU needs to rethink its foreign policy priorities and focus. “We need to be engaging more with such countries,” says a senior EU official. “A large part of our foreign policy structures are 20 years out of date.”

The spirit of activism will certainly be to the fore in Johannesburg. Much of the pre-summit argument focused on whether Vladimir Putin would attend. This posed a dilemma for South Africa over its international obligations to arrest him given that the Russian leader has been indicted by the International Criminal Court. Putin’s decision to stay at home was a boon for Cyril Ramaphosa, the president of South Africa, whose refusal to criticise Moscow has exasperated some in the Biden administration. It also suited many other countries attending which faced awkward encounters with Putin. While loath to join with the west in denouncing Moscow, many African states are upset by Russia’s ending of the deal on safe transport for Ukrainian grain supplies.

Instead it will be the other autocracy among the Brics founders, China, which will overshadow the summit, via the looming argument over expansion.

China’s desire to be the de facto head of the developing world is undisputed. Sir Danny Alexander, a former British government minister who is in Beijing as vice-president for policy and strategy at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, says China clearly sees itself as the natural leader of the global south.

“At a meeting of the China International Development Co-operation Agency there was a lot of discussion about the different kinds of collaboration going on. They talked about south south, north south and triangular co-operation. What is clear is there is a multiplicity of discussions on development and investment issues and these conversations no longer all flow through a western lens.”

For Beijing, a beefed-up Brics would be a counterweight to the G20, although some of the leading players at the Brics summit — India in particular — have no interest in allowing the Brics to segue into a China “club”. Indian diplomats have made clear that India is not in favour, for example, of developing a Brics currency.

As the two Asian giants warily eye each other up, New Delhi has this year made unprecedented strategic overtures to the west, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi making state visits to Washington and Paris. Indian officials talk though of being “aligned with our own interests” and in its stance towards Russia, including buying its oil, New Delhi has resolutely avoided taking the west’s line.

Brazil too is wary of the implications of expanding the Brics, diplomats involved in the preparations for the summit have said, for all the anti-western rhetoric of its leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on a recent visit to Beijing.

Such diplomatic dexterity and juggling are on display daily by middle powers around the world, not least by Singapore, which feels the squeeze between China and America acutely.

De-dollar diplomacy

And yet for all the discordance behind the scenes in Johannesburg, most of the participants share a frustration that the global economic order is tilted in the west’s favour, and believe that now finally is the time to change it.

Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, spoke for many developing countries at a summit hosted by President Emmanuel Macron in June when she called for a transformation of the World Bank and IMF. “When these institutions were founded [in 1944] our countries did not exist,” she said.

Zoltan Pozsar, head of the macroeconomic advisory firm, Ex Uno Plures, believes that system is at a tipping point. “The global east and south are renegotiating the world order,” he says, highlighting the drive in the global south for de-dollarisation and a rethink of the IMF and World Bank. “The west dreamt of the Brics as a lapdog, that they would accumulate dollars and recycle them into Treasuries, but instead of that they are renegotiating how things are done.”

The US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has confidently pushed back against this, reflecting the view of many market participants that the ambition to dethrone the dollar as the global reserve currency, is a very long-term bet. “There is a very good reason why the dollar is used widely in trade, and that’s because we have deep, liquid, open capital markets, rule of law and long and deep financial instruments,” she said at the Paris summit.

But politically at least the context is more propitious to push for change than ever. In the heyday of the cold war, the non-aligned movement had to rely on moral and emotional rather than economic or political clout. Now the Brics and aspirant members run an ever-larger share of the global economy and control many of the critical minerals the west so badly needs.

Moreover, some of the most influential “middle powers” who are wary of China share Beijing’s concerns over America’s weaponisation of financial sanctions. The signal moment for them in the past 18 months, argues the former Kofi Annan aide Mousavizadeh, was not Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 nor Nato’s rediscovery of its purpose, but the freezing of Russian central bank reserves, which dramatically underlined once again the power of the US dollar.

“For middle powers, it was the equivalent of someone going in and seizing embassy property. It was a reminder that you can have this sense of opportunity in the archipelago but that the alternatives to a US dollar world do not exist.

“Many thought we have to do whatever it takes to avoid being in the position of having reserves of this magnitude frozen in the future. That was Modi’s main response and many other middle power governments including in the Middle East were obsessed about this too.”

In Washington and west European capitals, officials are all focused on the rise of the middle powers and the need to reassess their world view. German officials even posit that Germany too can be seen as a middle power. “Our clear idea is that the world is not a G2 world,” said one. “It should be a multipolar world. The task of Germany could be more in the middle.”

Biden administration officials talk of the need not to react when old allies adopt positions close to China or Russia, but rather to make their case privately and stress the long-term advantages of America’s values over China’s. All the while Washington is busy working away at new constellations of regional alliances, including the trilateral Aukus defence pact and the Quad grouping of Indo-Pacific powers.

At times the rhetoric emanating from Johannesburg will sound like a reheating of the old anti-imperialist language of Bandung. But western officials accept it would be wrong to dismiss it all out of hand as their 20th-century predecessors might have been tempted to do. The age of the western set menu is over. And the new menu, while heavily influenced by two lead chefs, is still being written.

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The UAE and Sultan al-Jaber, who is leading the COP 28 climate talks, have drawn criticism from environmental advocates for hosting the international gathering despite being one of the world’s largest contributors of greenhouse gases. | Pool Photo by John MacDougall

Wealthy oil nation lays groundwork for ‘eye-popping’ climate fund

The United Arab Emirates has drawn a backlash from climate advocates for its role hosting the global climate talks, but the massive fund it’s considering would help countries green their economies.

POLITICO EU By ZACK COLMAN and KARL MATHIESEN, August 18, 2023 

The United Arab Emirates is considering creating a multibillion-dollar fund to spur clean energy investments across the world that it plans to unveil at this year’s U.N. climate talks in Dubai, according to people familiar with the plan.

The fund could amount to tens of billions of dollars, with a sizable slice of the money coming from the UAE’s sovereign wealth reserves, according to seven people with knowledge of the discussions. A G-7 government official said envoys from the oil-rich Mideast nation had privately mentioned the idea of a fund of at least $25 billion.

“It’s an eye-popping figure,” one of the people familiar with the concept said.

Creation of the fund would be one of the largest ever state-sponsored financial efforts to help countries fight climate change. And it comes as the UAE and Sultan al-Jaber, the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. who is leading the climate talks, have drawn criticism from environmental advocates and some U.S. and European lawmakers for hosting the international gathering despite being one of the world’s largest contributors of greenhouse gases.

The summit, known as COP28, starts on Nov. 30.

The fund would help fill a financial chasm to shift nations’ energy economies off fossil fuels, with the aim of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. Experts have said the effort will require trillions of dollars in spending to avoid catastrophic, irreversible effects of climate change.

In Washington, Republicans in Congress have vowed to block any U.S. effort to fulfill President Joe Biden’s promise to contribute $11 billion annually to international climate finance efforts.

Ron Johnson: Climate change is bad in Africa, but U.S. in ‘good shape’

But the UAE’s initiative would fail to plug other gaps in the system, most notably the need to aggressively deliver funding to clean up the economies of less wealthy nations that are crucial to stabilizing the world’s rapidly warming climate.

The people POLITICO spoke to regarding the fund were granted anonymity to discuss the confidential matter.

The UAE team organizing the climate summit declined to comment.

While its exact design is not settled, one person who had seen the UAE’s plan described the initiative as an investment fund to develop climate transition projects around the globe, ranging from greener cement-making to clean energy to electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

The person said the goal of the fund was to help attract massive amounts of private capital to climate-friendly initiatives. Previous programs were seen as too scattered and too small to realign the broader financial sector to invest in reaching governments’ net-zero goals.

But the focus of the fund on making investments at market rates risks creating tensions with wealthy governments in the U.S. and Europe, which expect the UAE to join their club of donors, and the world poorest countries, which may find themselves unable to compete for financing for their own projects.

The oil-rich UAE is under pressure to use its wealth to help prepare the world’s poorest countries to adapt to climate change that has been primarily caused by rich, developed economies. U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry has openly pushed for the Gulf nation to join the list of countries that are climate donors.

U.S. special climate envoy John Kerry has openly pushed for the UAE to join the list of countries that are climate donors. | Andy Wong/AP Photo

But climate finance experts and officials from low-income countries fear that this fund would inject cash into profitable projects largely in North America, Australia or Europe, rather than riskier economies in Africa or South Asia that have a massive clean energy funding deficit. customary for the summit host.

The “prevailing view” of the UAE government and sovereign wealth funds is that anything less than commercial terms was “charity” and shouldn’t be a priority, said a second person familiar with the discussions of the fund.

The government in Abu Dhabi, one of the seven emirates in the UAE, is considering basing the fund entirely on commercial terms, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.

That doesn’t sit well with advocates for less developed nations.

“It’s not just about funding — it’s about justice and recognizing the vast disparities intensified by climate change,” said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, the Senegalese official who chairs a group representing 46 of the world’s poorest countries. “Concessional finance is instrumental in unlocking opportunities for our countries to leapfrog to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources.”

The person who had seen the plan said the UAE is considering measures within that fund to encourage investment in poorer countries where investor returns are less certain.

The UAE has tapped a longtime World Bank official, Samir Suleymanov, to lead the climate finance program. He comes from a background of development finance, which has left some people optimistic that the UAE can unlock more money for developing nations.

This year's U.N. climate talks will take place in Dubai, starting on Nov. 30. | Kamran Jebreili/AP Photo

Many of those developing countries have made their commitments to reduce their own emissions contingent on access to cheap finance, but they have long struggled to attract interest from the private sector for clean energy investment. That situation has worsened since the pandemic, combined with global energy and food crises, which drove much of the developing world into deeper debt distress.

Offering grant-based free money is not the only way to steer finance to such countries, the G-7 official said. Other options for encouraging investment in traditionally riskier environments include loan guarantees, lenders taking a secondary repayment position in investments with multiple creditors, or fixing interest rates for longer loan lifetimes.

The goal is getting that finance from countries long averse to providing it, the G-7 official said. Swiftly deploying enough clean energy outside the richest countries to combat climate change will be difficult without adding new finance contributors — but could be a role the Middle East’s cash-flush nations could play, the official said.

In a speech to African ministers in Ethiopia on Thursday, the summit president al-Jaber lamented “the chronic lack of available, accessible and affordable climate finance.” But his own government’s commitment to helping plug that hole is unclear.

Traditional sources for so-called concessional finance are tapped out. Nations this year must replenish the $19.2 billion Green Climate Fund and International Development Association funds — which both benefit low-income and climate vulnerable nations — while making cash available for a new “loss and damage” fund to pay for irreversible climate harm in vulnerable countries.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has also created major demand from developing nations for finance on favorable terms at a time when some rich governments, such as the U.K., are reducing rather than expanding their overseas aid budgets.

But the UAE has been clear which countries it believes should be volunteering cheap climate finance.

“To get from hundreds of billions to trillions, we know we need that concessional component,” COP28 Director General Majid Al Suwaidi told POLITICO in an interview last month. “We need the likes of the U.S., U.K., Canada, all of the Europeans, et cetera, to provide more concessional finance.”

Sovereign wealth funds and private pension plans could pile in after that, he said. “We can’t talk about who is contributing until we fix the system that allows and encourages them to come in.”

The governing structure of the potential UAE fund is unclear. The Emirates have avoided channeling finance through the U.N. process, seeking distance from rich governments expected to make regular financial contributions to fighting climate change.

But it’s unclear which nations would want to sign up for a UAE-developed investment vehicle. It’s also uncertain such an entity would add to total available finance for clean energy development, since countries could instead simply shift capital flows to the new fund, the G-7 official said.

Three people familiar with the UAE government’s moves said officials have shopped the idea to institutions in countries such as Canada, Denmark, Norway and Singapore. Those nations possess large sovereign wealth and pension funds capable of steering billions of dollars toward clean energy.

The Export and Investment Fund of Denmark’s senior communications director, Kim Bove, said he could not confirm an approach by the UAE. Funds in Canada, Norway and Singapore did not respond to requests for comment.

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Image: Germán & Co

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Pyxis Ocean left Singapore en route to Paranagua in Brazil in first major test to see if technology will work on a real voyage

World’s first wind-powered freighter sets off on maiden voyage

Pyxis Ocean bulk carrier fitted with revolutionary 120ft fibreglass ‘sails’ has reached more than five and a half knots on wind power alone

The Telegraph By Sarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR21 August 2023 

It may not have the romance of the billowing multi-masted clippers, but the world’s first wind-powered freighter has embarked on her maiden voyage.

Mitsubishi’s Pyxis Ocean bulk carrier has been fitted with giant “wings” ushering in a new era of cargo-ladened sailing boats, borne to their destination on favourable tradewinds.

Although the sails are designed to work alongside the engine, engineers were delighted to find that during initial sea trials, the bulk carrier began to sail on wind power alone – reaching more than five and a half knots, before the crew intervened to bring her back under engine control.

Last week Pyxis Ocean – chartered by Cargill – left Singapore en route to the port of Paranagua in Brazil in the first major test to see if the technology will work on a real voyage.

If successful hundreds more ships will be retrofitted with the wings.

The revolutionary fibreglass aerofoils – which loom 123ft above deck – have been designed by engineers at BAR Technologies, a spin-off of Ben Ainslie Racing, the British team formed by the Olympic gold medalist.

Digital projections show they should deliver enough propulsion to cut the ship’s fuel use by at least three tonnes per day – about 30 per cent – helping to decarbonize the shipping industry without having to scrap existing vessels.

WindWings being retrofitted on Pyxis Ocean at the COSCO shipyard in Shanghai, China.

“I’m super excited about this,” said Jan Dieleman, president of Cargill’s Ocean transportation business. “We’re finally at the point where this ship is going to be on the water.

“We need to find out if everything is going to function. Is it safe? Is it going to work? Are the wings able to move as they should, can they fold? Does this actually work in port and then are we actually getting the fuel savings?

“It’s a huge project. This has never been done before. But you have to be willing to take some risks otherwise everything continues to be a theoretical exercise, so it’s time to showcase what is possible.”

The technology could change current shipping routes, making it more profitable to follow the old trading routes with favourable winds, rather than travelling in the straight lines most cargo ships do today.

Mr Dielman added: “We’ve always been working on the assumption that going from A to B is the quickest way, but we might need to deviate because there is more wind in certain areas, or you might get better returns at different times of year.

“We need to think differently to what we’ve done traditionally.”

Getting to the first voyage has not been easy. Cargill initially trialled kites but found they simply did not work and subsequently joined forces with Portsmouth-based BAR Technologies for the WindWings project.

That too has not been plain sailing.

Hampered visibility from the bridge

Placing the huge cambered aerofoils on the deck hampered visibility from the bridge, forcing the team to install cameras to see ahead. They also needed to build in a tilting mechanism that enabled the sails to be stowed during dockside operations, when passing under structures, or in stormy sea conditions.

In yachting, the size of the sail can be made smaller to cope with heavy weather, so engineers had to come up with a similar way of depowering the wings in case of a sudden storm.

As well as being able to pivot, each wing has three moveable elements that can be adjusted to spill the wind or exploit its power, in the same way that an aircraft wing changes its shape during take-off and landing.

Wind sensors on board pick up wind angle and speed, automatically reorienting the sail in the event of unexpected gusts. Above 40 knots – gale force conditions – the wings can be folded onto the deck.

There are also sensors which detect the lean – or heel – of the ship, how far it is drifting off the set course and the rudder angle.

“We don’t have Ben on board, so it has to be automatic,” said John Cooper, the CEO of BAR Technologies.

“If we see excess rudder angle, or leeway or heel, then the wings start, taking them out of a camber shape and pushing them into the wind angle.”

‘Sail away without the engine on’

So far, early sea trials have surpassed all expectations.

Mr Cooper added: “My senior engineer, who is normally very serious, phoned me up on the sea trials giggling like a 10-year-old and actually explaining they had just free-sailed.

“We’re all about wind-assisted propulsion, but it was super cool to lift the anchor and sail away without the engine on.

“And that’s only with two sails, we’ve got one right behind it with four sails on. They are still calculating it but we were well over five and half knots before we decided to stop acceleration, that was not terminal velocity, and we had an 18 knot wind not the strongest, so we know we can free-sail pretty damn well.”

The whole project was tested on a “digital twin” inside a computer before the wings were built by Yara Marine Technologies.

If the Pyxis Ocean’s journey is a success the team plan to test the wings on a Newcastlemax bulk carrier – one of the world’s largest cargo ships which is used to transport coal, iron ore, and grain across the world’s oceans.

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Illustrations by Germán & Co.

Will the rest of the world feel China’s deflation pain?

Falling prices will lower cost of imports but are unlikely to have a dramatic impact elsewhere

Financial Times by Chris Giles in London YESTERDAY

Beijing’s economic woes worsened last week after it emerged China had fallen into deflation. The news highlights how the country is struggling to live up to expectations of a strong recovery after emerging from extended Covid lockdowns.

But will falling prices have an impact beyond China’s borders, in places where the bigger risk is still that an extended period of high inflation will endure?

For now, economists say there is little reason for concern, as:

Chinese deflation is likely to prove temporary

Deflation is primarily a concern when it is pervasive and caused by companies desperate to sell to consumers who are unwilling or unable to buy because they have fallen on hard times.

This describes neither China’s economy nor its price movements.

The economic recovery following the reopening has disappointed — the property sector remains a serious concern — but output is still growing and an expansion of close to 5 per cent this year is still on the cards.

“China’s consumption recovery remains soft and uneven, but this a far cry from Japan-style deflation,” said Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the country’s decades-long experience with falling prices.

While Chinese consumer prices fell 0.3 per cent in the year to July, a small fall in costs also occurred in 2021. Now as then, the deflation appears temporary — more the result of base effects than any deep problems.

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A rise in core inflation signals Chinese deflation is unlikely to linger

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In July alone, prices rose by 0.2 per cent and they have increased 0.5 per cent in the first seven months of 2023. The measured deflation arose because prices — particularly of pork, which has fallen in price by 26 per cent over the past 12 months — did not rise at the pace seen during 2022, when China endured several major lockdowns.

Neil Shearing, chief economist of Capital Economics, said the rise in core inflation — which excludes food and energy, and is seen as a better measure of underlying price pressures — from 0.4 per cent in June to 0.8 per cent in July demonstrated the lack of entrenched deflation in China. “To the extent that chronic demand weakness shows up in the inflation data, it will do so in the core numbers,” he said.

Inflation is seldom as contagious as it seems

The world — bar China — has appeared to suffer an inflation boom during the past couple of years. While the pace of price rises has been high in most countries, the reasons why differ markedly.

Price rises triggered by snarl-ups in global supply chains may have been universal. But they were amplified in the US by extremely strong consumer demand growth. The surge in demand followed a huge fiscal expansion in 2020 and 2021, when the Trump and Biden administrations sent large cheques to households to combat the Covid-19 crisis.

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The US's economic recovery has been far stronger than elsewhere

Change in GDP between Q4 2019 and Q1 2023

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Strong demand was much less an issue in Europe and in emerging economies. These suffered much more from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In Europe, the pinch came from soaring natural gas prices. In poorer countries, higher food prices and energy costs sparked a wider rise in the price level.

Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS, said in the case of Chinese deflation, price pressures were as likely to prove “intensely local”.

While the price of Chinese imports was likely to fall as a result of the country’s economic woes, Donovan noted that “an awful lot happens” to exports before they reach their final destination. “Generally most of the price of something made in China and sold in the US will be paid to US workers — in transport or advertising costs, and so on,” he said.

Chinese deflation can help in Europe

The big inflation problem, especially in Europe and emerging economies, has been the higher cost of imports, lowering living standards and sparking a process in which domestic companies try to defend their profit margins by raising prices and workers struggle to catch up.

Chinese factory goods prices were 4.4 per cent lower in July than a year earlier. To a minor extent, this has an effect abroad.

European countries will benefit from a weaker Chinese economy that places less competition on supplies of natural gas as it adjusts to weaning itself off from Russian supplies.

It would be wrong, of course, to suggest that everyone else benefits (at least a little) from a weak Chinese economy.

Recommended Unhedged podcast19 min listen China slows down China has contributed 40 per cent to global growth rates over the past 10 years, according to Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research. Any economic troubles in Beijing will weigh on world output.

But at the moment, the fallout from Chinese deflation looks manageable both for the country itself and the rest of the world.

---

News Round-Up, August 18, 2023

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Most read…

U.S. Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Level Since 2002

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has climbed above 7 percent, making it harder for buyers to afford homes, which are already in short supply.

NYT by Gregory Schmidt, Aug. 17, 2023

Hawaiian Electric/wildfires: old business models are no longer viable

Climate disasters were previously events utilities could withstand

Financial Times, Today

Putin fails again as Europe’s gas storage hits 90 percent

The EU has met its gas storage targets more than three months ahead of schedule. But that might not mean lower prices.

POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, AUGUST 17, 2023

Extreme fires caused by ancient humans wiped out Californian megafauna

A series of catastrophic fires killed off many large mammals in southern California by 13,000 years ago, and they were largely due to the arrival of humans

NEW Scientist by Michael Le Page, 17 August 2023

Unrealistic' global offshore wind expansion target would require $27 billion by 2026, says Wood Mackenzie

Reuters Today

Will the rest of the world feel China’s deflation pain?

Falling prices will lower cost of importe but are unlikely to have a dramatic impact elsewhere

Financial Times by Chris Giles in London YESTERDAY

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The AES Corporation is committed to accelerating the future of energy transitions by delivering greener and more innovative solutions. AES firmly believes that energy infrastructure plays a crucial role in ensuring the sustainability of our sector. Recently, the AES President and CEO, Andrés Gluski, had the privilege of moderating a captivating discussion titled "Harnessing Diplomacy for the Energy Transition and Universal Access" at the @EEI_Intl panel. This engaging conversation highlights the importance of collaboration and innovative approaches in driving the energy transition forward.

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Source: NYT 

U.S. Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Level Since 2002

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has climbed above 7 percent, making it harder for buyers to afford homes, which are already in short supply.

NYT by Gregory Schmidt, Aug. 17, 2023

Mortgage rates surged to a 21-year high this week, a jump that will make it even harder for buyers to afford homes in a market hampered by high prices and low inventory.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — the most popular home loan in the United States — was 7.09 percent, up from 6.96 percent last week, Freddie Mac said on Thursday. A year earlier, the 30-year rate was 5.13 percent.

Analysts say they expect mortgage rates to remain lofty in the near term, and to start cooling only gradually by the end of the year. The current rate is the highest since April 2002. Since then, home buyers enjoyed years of falling rates, which even dipped below 3 percent at the beginning of the pandemic.

But as mortgage rates began abruptly rising last year, when the Federal Reserve started lifting interest rates to rein in rapid inflation, the housing market has stagnated, as owners with low mortgage rates have been unwilling to put their homes up for sale.

In June, sales of existing homes fell nearly 19 percent from the year before, according to the National Association of Realtors. The scarcity of listings has kept housing prices elevated: The median price of an existing home was $410,200 in June, the second-highest since the organization began tracking the data in 1999, down only marginally from a high of $413,800 a year ago.

And experts do not think the housing market will cool off anytime soon. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs revised upward its forecast for home prices, predicting a 1.8 percent rise in prices this year and 3.5 percent jump in 2024. “Affordability remains burdensome,” analysts at the bank said in a report, citing a tighter housing supply and a steady demand for homes.

The scarcity of existing homes for sale has pushed buyers to consider new construction.Credit...Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

That’s bad news for would-be home buyers like Kathleen Schmidt, who rents a house in Toms River, N.J., with her husband and two teenage children. She said that they were trying to save for a 20 percent down payment on a townhome nearby, and that the jump in mortgage rates was discouraging.

“I just felt in the pit of my stomach: We are never going to be able to buy a home,” said Ms. Schmidt, who owns KMSPR, a public relations firm for authors and publishers.

“My dream forever was to own a home someday because it’s something my parents never did,” she added. “We want something left for our kids.”

Affordability is a persistent challenge for home buyers, said Jeff Ostrowski, an analyst at the personal finance company Bankrate, who predicted that rates would remain elevated for some time.

“I think buyers are going to have to buckle their chin straps and figure out how to make it work,” he said.

The scarcity of existing homes for sale has pushed buyers to consider new construction. The sale of new homes climbed nearly 24 percent in June from the same period a year earlier, the Census Bureau reported. Housing starts, a measure of the construction of new homes, increased about 6 percent in July from the previous year.

“The builders are making profits, and their stock margins have increased from a year ago,” said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. He added that national builders like KB Home, Lennar and Toll Brothers would continue to add inventory to make Wall Street happy, but that they were focused more on higher-priced homes.

For home buyers, finding affordable options remains difficult. The Federal Reserve has lifted its policy interest rate, which underpins borrowing costs across the economy, to the highest level in 22 years as it tries to slow inflation by cooling the economy. Although price pressures have abated, with the annual rate of inflation moderating from nearly 9 percent last year to just above 3 percent last month, a recent uptick in gasoline prices could prop up inflation figures.

Officials at the central bank have suggested that further rate adjustments could be possible this year. They expect to cut rates in 2024, but they think it could be several years before rates return to the lower levels that were common before the pandemic.

Mortgage rates generally track the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which are influenced by a variety of factors, including expectations around inflation, the Fed’s actions and how investors react to it all. On Thursday, the 10-year yield rose above 4.3 percent for the first time since 2007.

For home buyers and market watchers, the question remains, how long will mortgage rates remain high?

Mr. Yun predicted that rates would slowly start to ease by next spring or even by the year’s end, coming down to 6.5 percent, which is still more than double the rate in 2021. But he said the Fed’s fight against inflation and the recent downgrade in the nation’s credit rating continued to put pressure on mortgage rates.

“The housing market is in a tough spot,” he said.

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Image by Germán & Co

Hawaiian Electric/wildfires: old business models are no longer viable

Climate disasters were previously events utilities could withstand

Financial Times, Today

Climate disasters were previously events utilities could withstand Investors fear electricity transmission equipment may be implicated in the deadly wildfires in Hawaii © Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

The securities of US energy utilities are supposed to be safe investments. Consumer prices for power are set by regulators with the aim of producing solid returns. In parts of the US, climate change has upended that bargain. 

Shares of Hawaiian Electric Industries have fallen nearly 70 per cent this month. Investors fear electricity transmission equipment may be implicated in wildfires claiming more than a hundred lives and causing property damage running into billions of dollars.

For the moment, the focus should be on how to best help survivors. Soon enough, questions about the viability of old business models will need answering.

Serious litigation could result in a settlement that leaves alleged victims as shareholders in Hawaiian Electric. Just such an equitisation happened a few years back when northern Californian utility PG&E settled a $13.5bn liability for wildfires. Half was in the form of shares handed to a victims’ trust. 

PacifiCorp, a utility owned by investor Berkshire Hathaway, recently lost a lawsuit over a 2020 wildfire. It could be on the hook for several billions of dollars in claims. Colorado utility Xcel Energy is in the same boat.

Climate disasters were previously events utilities could withstand. They now risk becoming annual events that dictate expensive remediation and retrofitting. These may be beyond the capacity of any private business. 

Northern California is prosperous. Multiple investors, including private equity, were interested in funding the restructuring of PG&E. The state of California itself supported the creation of a specialised insurance fund to socialise risk.

Claims against Hawaiian Electric may be trickier to resolve. The population is smaller. Rebuilding costs will be exorbitant. The Hawaiian average price for electricity is already steep, at 44 cents per kilowatt hour.

Hawaii’s wildfires may therefore prove a tipping point in how the US apportions the costs of an increasingly unstable climate.

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“Words fail to capture the resplendent magnificence of this exquisite beverage. Its qualities transcend the boundaries of human expression, rendering it a true paragon of its kind. Indeed, it stands unequivocally among the most exceptional —-elixir—- concoctions ever produced…

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Gas Infrastructure Europe said Thursday that member countries' gas stores are now at more than 90 percent capacity | Attila Kisbenedek/AFP 

Putin fails again as Europe’s gas storage hits 90 percent

The EU has met its gas storage targets more than three months ahead of schedule. But that might not mean lower prices.

POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, AUGUST 17, 2023 

The EU's reserves of natural gas hit a historic high Thursday, filling up well in advance of the winter heating season as the bloc continues its dash away from Russian energy dependence.

That leaves the Kremlin scrambling to plug a gaping hole in its finances left by its decision to cut off European customers in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.

But less Russian gas also opens the EU to the bigger price fluctuations of the global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Gas Infrastructure Europe said Thursday that member countries' gas stores are now at 90.12 percent capacity — breezing past the 90 percent filling target that Brussels is legally required to meet by November.

"Today’s confirmation that we have met our gas storage requirements so far ahead of schedule underlines that the EU is well-prepared for winter and this will help to further stabilize markets in the coming months," the bloc's Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson told POLITICO.

"The EU energy market is in a much more stable position than it was this time last year," she added, while acknowledging "we have seen in recent weeks that the gas market remains sensitive" and that the Commission will continue to monitor it as the Continent heads toward chillier weather.

The news underlines the EU's success in shedding its dependence on Russian pipeline gas, which before the war supplied about 40 percent of the bloc's demand.

Moscow steadily cut off its EU customers, slashing and then ultimately cutting off deliveries through its Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream pipelines, while also reducing the volumes reaching the EU via Ukraine.

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EUROPE STOCKS UP ON GAS

*Europe's gas stores are filling faster than in previous years. 

*EU gas storage levels, in terawatt-hours and in share of total storage capacity.

*Storage data for some dates listed is estimated

SOURCE: Gas Infrastructure Europe by Lucia Mackenzie and Giovanna Coi.

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The EU responded by shifting to other suppliers and slashing demand.

Russian gas fell to 23.6 percent of EU imports in the first 32 weeks of 2022, and so far this year it's down to just 8.4 percent. That puts the EU's commitment to end purchases of Russian gas by 2027 within reach.

"This is definitely a success story," said Giovanni Sgaravatti, a research analyst at Brussels think tank Bruegel, "for the Commission, for the energy market, but even more so for the governments of member states that responded fairly well to replace 1,000 terawatt hours of missing Russian gas in the space of a year."

Russian gas has largely been replaced by imports from the U.S., Norway, Azerbaijan and others, bringing prices dramatically down from their 2022 peak. The Dutch TTF gas pricing index hit €320 per megawatt hour last August; it hovered around €38 this week.

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IMPORTS OF GAS FROM RUSSIA HAVE HIT HISTORIC LOWS

*The EU27's dependence on Russian gas imports has decreased over the past three years.

*EU natural gas imports from Russia and other trading partners, in share of total imports and millions of cubic meters for the first 32 weeks of each year.

SOURCE: Bruege by Lucia Mackenzie and Giovanna Coi 

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However, the cost of gas still remains higher than before the war, when it fluctuated around €20 per megawatt hour, meaning bigger bills for households and lower productivity for European industry.

"Wholesale gas prices may be significantly lower than a year ago when the market was gripped by Nord Stream coming offline, but they remain still noticeably more expensive than historic gas prices over the last decade," said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at market analysis firm ICIS, warning that traders are still anxious about supply.

"The fact European storages are nearly full earlier than normal — typically they reach this level around October — doesn't necessarily mean the price will come down further, unfortunately. Stored gas can only get you so far through a winter and if that winter is cold there's a certain amount of risk, and that's what keeps gas price elevated for the time being," he added.

Analysts expect this to be the last winter where shortages are a serious concern, given that increased LNG production capacity from suppliers like Qatar and the U.S. is due to come online midway through 2024.

However, a number of Central European countries, in particular Austria, are still reliant on Russian imports sent through pipelines running across Ukraine. Kyiv has indicated it does not intend to renegotiate the transit deal, which is set to expire at the end of next year. That creates a hard deadline for those still depending on Moscow's fossil fuels.

The loss of its most dependable European customers has been a big blow for the Kremlin; revenues from energy exports were down 41 percent to $43.4 billion in the first seven months of this year, the Russian finance ministry said. Meanwhile, the ruble hit a 16-month low, and this week crashed through a symbolic benchmark of more than 100 to the dollar.

That makes it harder for Russia to continue to prop up its isolated economy, pay its soldiers' wages and purchase weapons from abroad. According to Natasha Kuhrt, a senior lecturer at King's College London's Department of War Studies, "in the end, the government will prioritize military spending," while economic woes are mainly "going to mean hardship" for many ordinary Russians.

Meanwhile, Moscow-based research firm Romir on Wednesday published a poll of 3,500 Russians that found almost one in five is having to reduce their spending on food and essential goods to save money, up three percent from the month before.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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A sabre-toothed cat skull in the Page Museum at the La Brea tar pits, California/ Robert Landau

Extreme fires caused by ancient humans wiped out Californian megafauna

A series of catastrophic fires killed off many large mammals in southern California by 13,000 years ago, and they were largely due to the arrival of humans

NEW Scientist by Michael Le Page, 17 August 2023

A series of catastrophic fires was the immediate cause of the extinction of many large mammals in southern California 13,000 years ago, according to a study of fossils from the La Brea tar pits. The findings suggest these extreme fires were probably a result of humans abruptly changing the ecosystem by killing off herbivores – meaning there was more vegetation to burn – and deliberately starting fires.

“It’s a synergy of the drying climate and the humans, and the fact that they are killing herbivores and increasing fuel loads, and all of those things go together to make a feedback loop that takes the ecosystem to a chaotic state,” says Robin O’Keefe at Marshall University in West Virginia. “The fire event is really catastrophic.”

The tar pits at La Brea in Los Angeles have trapped numerous animals over the past 50,000 years and preserved their bones, providing an extraordinary window into the past. Many of the bones have never been precisely dated because radiocarbon dating was more expensive in the past and required destroying large chunks of bone, and also because results were skewed by the tar inside the bones.

Now, costs have fallen, only tiny quantities of bone are needed and the tar contamination problem can be solved by extracting preserved collagen and dating only this material. As a result, O’Keefe and his colleagues were able to precisely date 172 bones from eight species.

Seven of these species are extinct, including the sabre-toothed cat (Smilodon fatalis), the dire wolf (Aenocyon dirus), the western camel (Camelops hesternus) and the ancient bison (Bison antiquus), which was even larger than surviving bison. The team also dated coyote (Canis latrans) bones as a control.

The dating shows that the seven species were all gone from the La Brea area by 13,000 years ago, though some survived elsewhere in North America for another millennium or so. Their disappearance from La Brea coincides with massive spikes in the number of charcoal particles in lake sediments, which are deposited during wildfires.

Keep up with advances in archaeology and evolution with our monthly newsletter.

“Some of those spikes for those fires are just enormous, orders of magnitude more than has ever happened before,” says O’Keefe.

Pollen in lake sediments shows that the vegetation had begun changing from woodland to a more open landscape around 16,000 years ago, as the area became drier due to the retreat of the ice sheets. But there was a sudden shift to fire-resistant vegetation around 13,000 years ago.

“The results of this study are consistent with humans increasing fire both directly though ignitions and indirectly through hunting of herbivores,” says Allison Karp at Yale University, who wasn’t involved in the study.

If the tiny number of people alive at the time could do this, the much greater number of people alive now can have a much bigger impact, says O’Keefe. “It’s super relevant to today,” he says.

More extreme wildfires are happening in many parts of the world as it warms, and O’Keefe says his findings show there is a risk this could lead to ecosystems flipping into another state, resulting in many species going extinct. “Hopefully, by learning these things about what happened at La Brea, maybe we can change our trajectory,” he says.

Earlier research had suggested that the development of the Clovis stone tool technology, whose distinctive feature is finely crafted large spear points for tackling big animals, enabled people in North America to wipe out the continent’s megafauna. However, these findings show that some large mammals were going extinct in places before Clovis tools appeared. O’Keefe and his colleagues think Clovis tools were instead a response to the loss of some megafauna.

“The things that seem to get hunted out first are the things that are easier to catch, like camels and horses and bison,” says O’Keefe. “It’s only when you start running out of those that we think that the Clovis technology evolves, because you have to do this really dangerous thing and try to take on a mastodon because all the easier to kill animals are gone.”

“Clovis wasn’t a driver of extinction. It evolves because the extinction was already under way,” he says.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Image by Germán & Co

'Unrealistic' global offshore wind expansion target would require $27 billion by 2026, says Wood Mackenzie

Reuters, August 18, 2023

Aug 17 (Reuters) - Government targets to increase wind power installations would see annual capacity additions reach 80 gigawatts (GW) per year by 2030, requiring $100 billion in secured investment in the supply chain by 2026, Wood Mackenzie said in a report.

The research and consultancy firm forecast annual capacity is more likely to increase by 30 gigawatts (GW) a year by 2030, which would require $27 billion of secured investment by 2026.

"The supply chain is struggling to scale up and will be an impediment to achieving decarbonisation targets if change does not happen," said Chris Seiple, vice chair, power and renewables at Wood Mackenzie.

"Nearly 80 GW of annual installations to meet all government targets is not realistic, even achieving our forecasted 30 GW in additions will prove unrealistic if there isn't immediate investment in the supply chain," Seiple said.

Wood Mackenzie noted that the low profit margins on offshore wind production and uncertainty about project timings resulting in very different supply-chain needs are making it hard to drum up investment in the sector.

According to the Statistical Review of World Energy report in June, global wind and solar power grew to a record share of 12% of power generation last year, surpassing nuclear.

Target setting and plans for power market infrastructure to support offshore wind need to extend beyond 2030 to scale up the offshore wind supply chain, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said.

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Illustrations by Germán & Co.

Will the rest of the world feel China’s deflation pain?

Falling prices will lower cost of imports but are unlikely to have a dramatic impact elsewhere

Financial Times by Chris Giles in London YESTERDAY

Beijing’s economic woes worsened last week after it emerged China had fallen into deflation. The news highlights how the country is struggling to live up to expectations of a strong recovery after emerging from extended Covid lockdowns.

But will falling prices have an impact beyond China’s borders, in places where the bigger risk is still that an extended period of high inflation will endure?

For now, economists say there is little reason for concern, as:

Chinese deflation is likely to prove temporary

Deflation is primarily a concern when it is pervasive and caused by companies desperate to sell to consumers who are unwilling or unable to buy because they have fallen on hard times.

This describes neither China’s economy nor its price movements.

The economic recovery following the reopening has disappointed — the property sector remains a serious concern — but output is still growing and an expansion of close to 5 per cent this year is still on the cards.

“China’s consumption recovery remains soft and uneven, but this a far cry from Japan-style deflation,” said Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the country’s decades-long experience with falling prices.

While Chinese consumer prices fell 0.3 per cent in the year to July, a small fall in costs also occurred in 2021. Now as then, the deflation appears temporary — more the result of base effects than any deep problems.

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A rise in core inflation signals Chinese deflation is unlikely to linger

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In July alone, prices rose by 0.2 per cent and they have increased 0.5 per cent in the first seven months of 2023. The measured deflation arose because prices — particularly of pork, which has fallen in price by 26 per cent over the past 12 months — did not rise at the pace seen during 2022, when China endured several major lockdowns.

Neil Shearing, chief economist of Capital Economics, said the rise in core inflation — which excludes food and energy, and is seen as a better measure of underlying price pressures — from 0.4 per cent in June to 0.8 per cent in July demonstrated the lack of entrenched deflation in China. “To the extent that chronic demand weakness shows up in the inflation data, it will do so in the core numbers,” he said.

Inflation is seldom as contagious as it seems

The world — bar China — has appeared to suffer an inflation boom during the past couple of years. While the pace of price rises has been high in most countries, the reasons why differ markedly.

Price rises triggered by snarl-ups in global supply chains may have been universal. But they were amplified in the US by extremely strong consumer demand growth. The surge in demand followed a huge fiscal expansion in 2020 and 2021, when the Trump and Biden administrations sent large cheques to households to combat the Covid-19 crisis.

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The US's economic recovery has been far stronger than elsewhere

Change in GDP between Q4 2019 and Q1 2023

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Strong demand was much less an issue in Europe and in emerging economies. These suffered much more from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In Europe, the pinch came from soaring natural gas prices. In poorer countries, higher food prices and energy costs sparked a wider rise in the price level.

Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS, said in the case of Chinese deflation, price pressures were as likely to prove “intensely local”.

While the price of Chinese imports was likely to fall as a result of the country’s economic woes, Donovan noted that “an awful lot happens” to exports before they reach their final destination. “Generally most of the price of something made in China and sold in the US will be paid to US workers — in transport or advertising costs, and so on,” he said.

Chinese deflation can help in Europe

The big inflation problem, especially in Europe and emerging economies, has been the higher cost of imports, lowering living standards and sparking a process in which domestic companies try to defend their profit margins by raising prices and workers struggle to catch up.

Chinese factory goods prices were 4.4 per cent lower in July than a year earlier. To a minor extent, this has an effect abroad.

European countries will benefit from a weaker Chinese economy that places less competition on supplies of natural gas as it adjusts to weaning itself off from Russian supplies.

It would be wrong, of course, to suggest that everyone else benefits (at least a little) from a weak Chinese economy.

Recommended Unhedged podcast19 min listen China slows down China has contributed 40 per cent to global growth rates over the past 10 years, according to Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research. Any economic troubles in Beijing will weigh on world output.

But at the moment, the fallout from Chinese deflation looks manageable both for the country itself and the rest of the world.

---

News Round-Up, August 17, 2023

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Most read…

EXCLUSIVE: Hawaiian Electric Knew of Wildfire Threat, but Waited Years to Act

Four years ago, the utility said it needed to do more to prevent its power lines from emitting sparks. It made little progress, focusing on a shift to clean energy.

WSJ by Katherine Blunt, Dan Frosch and Jim Carlton, Aug. 16, 2023 

Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit

Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects

WSJ by Chelsey Dulaney and Georgi Kantchev, Aug. 17, 2023

Why Hawaiian Electric Is Facing a Lawsuit After Deadly Wildfires in Maui

TIME by SIMMONE SHAH,  AUGUST 16, 2023  | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: AUGUST 15, 2023 

As Brazil's president, Lula is enjoying a favorable period with an approval rating of 60 percent.

Support for the leftist leader is increasing among evangelicals and in the southern part of the country, owing to the economic influence.

"El País" Naiara Galarraga Gortázar, São Paulo, August 17, 2023 - Translation and editing to English by Germán & Co.

THE ANATOMY OF TWITTER

A POLITICAL TSUNAMI BY MILEI

IF THE FAR-RIGHT CANDIDATE WINS THE PRESIDENCY, HE WILL ELIMINATE SEVERAL MINISTRIES. TO CLARIFY HIS PROJECT, HE UPLOADED A VIDEO ON TIKTOK WITH AN IMPECCABLE STAGING THAT MATCHED HIS PROFILE.

"El País" Federico Rivas Molina, 17th August 2023, translation and editing to English by Germán & Co.

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Burned cars in front of homes destroyed by the wildfire in Lahaina PHOTO: JUSTIN SULLIVAN/ Edited by Germán & Co.

Hawaiian Electric Knew of Wildfire Threat, but Waited Years to Act

Four years ago, the utility said it needed to do more to prevent its power lines from emitting sparks. It made little progress, focusing on a shift to clean energy.

WSJ by Katherine Blunt, Dan Frosch and Jim Carlton, Aug. 16, 2023 

During the 2019 wildfire season, one of the worst Maui had ever seen, Hawaiian Electric concluded that it needed to do far more to prevent its power lines from emitting sparks.

The utility examined California’s plans to reduce fires ignited by power lines, started flying drones over its territory and vowed to take steps to protect its equipment and its customers from the threat of fire. 

Nearly four years later, the company has completed little such work. Between 2019 and 2022, it invested less than $245,000 on wildfire-specific projects on the island, regulatory filings show. It didn’t seek state approval to raise rates to pay for broad wildfire-safety improvements until 2022, and has yet to receive it.

Now, the company is facing scrutiny, litigation and a financial crisis over indications that its power lines might have played a role in igniting the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century. The blaze has caused more than 100 deaths, destroyed the historic town of Lahaina and resulted in an estimated billions of dollars in damage. 

Electrical workers repair power lines leading into Lahaina on Tuesday. PHOTO: MIKE BLAKE/REUTERS

The fire’s cause hasn’t been determined, but mounting evidence suggests the utility’s equipment was involved. One video taken by a resident shows a downed power line igniting dry grass along a road near Lahaina. A firm that monitors grid sensors reported dozens of electrical disruptions in the hours before the fire began, including one that coincided in time with video footage of a flash of light from power lines. 

Hawaiian Electric said it would investigate any role its infrastructure may have played and cooperate with a separate probe into the fire launched last week by the Hawaii attorney general. 

“We all believe it’s important to understand what happened. And I think we all believe it’s important to make sure it doesn’t happen again,” said Shelee Kimura, Hawaiian Electric’s chief executive.

In response to questions about its wildfire-mitigation spending, a spokesman for Hawaiian Electric said the company reduces wildfire risk through its routine utility work, including trimming or removing trees and upgrading, replacing and inspecting equipment. It said it has spent about $84 million on maintenance and tree work in Maui County since 2018.

The utility has long been a force in Hawaii politics and business. In the wake of the fire, its finances are reeling. Its stock has plunged 49% this week, and its credit rating was downgraded to junk by S&P.

Hawaiian Electric is the latest utility in the Western U.S. to struggle following large wildfires, many of which have been sparked by utility equipment in recent years. PG&E, the Northern California utility giant, sought bankruptcy protection in 2019 after its power lines ignited a series of major fires, including the 2018 Camp Fire that killed 84 people and destroyed the town of Paradise, Calif. That had been the deadliest wildfire in modern U.S. history until the Maui fire. 

In recent days, Hawaiian Electric officials have conferred with their counterparts at PG&E, seeking legal guidance on how to weather a crisis, people familiar with the matter said. The company is speaking with restructuring-advisory firms, exploring options to address its financial and legal challenge, said people familiar with the matter.

Since PG&E’s bankruptcy, Hawaiian Electric has made reference in regulatory filings to the risks of power-line fires, but it waited years to take significant action, documents and interviews show. During that period, the company was undertaking a state-mandated shift to renewable energy. 

Acres burned in Maui County

Source: Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization

The growing risk of wildfire on Maui had been known for years. The number of acres burned on the island soared to 39,000 in 2019, from 150 in 1999, according to data compiled by the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, a nonprofit that works with government agencies and the public. 

Several reports released by the group and others in recent years have said the danger is increasing, in part, because of invasive plants that have overtaken former sugar and pineapple plantations. Roughly one-quarter of state land in Hawaii is now covered by invasive grasses and shrubs, according to a study by the University of Hawaii and think tank East-West Center. 

Wildfires in Maui since 2000

Note: Grasslands as of 2017
Sources: NASA (wildfires); U.S. Geological Survey (grasslands)
Jake Steinberg/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

In 2018, winds from Hurricane Lane passing to the south helped fuel fires that burned more than 2,000 acres on Maui. The next year was far worse, with the most acres blackened in decades, data from the wildfire management group show.

That July, a 9,000-acre blaze blew out of control in Central Maui, burning 25 acres a minute, according to the Maui News. The blaze prompted hundreds of evacuations and came within 150 feet of Hawaiian Electric’s power plant on Maui, according to the paper. The plant accounts for as much as 80% of the island’s power supplies.

A view of the devastation in Lahaina. PHOTO: ELYSE BUTLER FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

It said it would install heavier, insulated conductors on Maui and Oahu to minimize the risk of sparks when winds picked up, as well as technology to detect disruptions when the conductors came into contact with vegetation or each other. It said it would apply fire retardant on poles in risky areas and consider installing cameras and other devices to monitor weather conditions during fire season.

In filings over the next two years with the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission, which is tasked with approving utility projects and spending, the company made only passing reference to wildfire mitigation. 

Renewables push

Former regulators and energy company officials said the utility was focused at that time on procuring renewable energy. Hawaii has been on a push to convert to renewables since 2008, when a run-up in oil prices sent electrical rates at Hawaiian Electric—which relied on petroleum imports for 80% of its energy supply—through the roof. In 2015, lawmakers passed legislation mandating that the state derive 100% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2045, the first such requirement in the U.S. 

The company dove into reaching the goals, stating in 2017 that it would reach the benchmark five years ahead of schedule. 

In 2019, under pressure to replace the output of two conventional power plants set to retire, the company sought to contract for 900 megawatts of renewable energy, the most it had pursued at any one time.

“You have to look at the scope and scale of the transformation within [Hawaiian Electric] that was occurring throughout the system,” said Mina Morita, who chaired the state utilities commission from 2011 to 2015. “While there was concern for wildfire risk, politically the focus was on electricity generation.” 

The drive to reach the renewable goals also preoccupied private energy companies working with Hawaiian Electric and state energy officials, said Doug McLeod, a consultant who served for several years as the Maui county energy commissioner. 

“Looking back with hindsight, the business opportunities were on the generation side, and the utility was going out for bid with all these big renewable-energy projects,” he said. “But in retrospect, it seems clear, we weren’t as focused on these fire risks as we should have been.”

Burned cars in front of homes destroyed by the wildfire in Lahaina PHOTO: JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

A 2020 management audit of the company found that its enterprise risk analysis was largely focused on financial risk, with limited consideration of operational and business risk. And the division within the company that oversaw power line operations had significant management problems, the audit found.

Henry Curtis, who leads an environmental and community group that regularly weighs in on utility projects, said Hawaiian Electric officials told him privately that they didn’t believe Hawaii was prone to the type of devastating wildfires roaring through California. The utility officials thought the state’s parched grasslands were less of an urgent threat than California’s vast and dry timberlands, he said. 

Shirley Daniel, a former Hawaiian Electric board member, said the utility hadn’t seen Hawaiian fires as a major threat. She likened the Maui disaster to the devastation Hurricane Sandy brought in 2012 to a New York City area that hadn’t before experienced so much damage from a tropical storm. 

“I think the world is going to have to be realistic about these things,” she said about the changing nature of natural disasters.

Prompted by the increase in wildfires, a Maui county government commission in July 2021 examined the local prevention and response system and warned county and state officials of the growing fire threat. 

“The investigation found that the number of incidents from a combination of wild/brush/forest fires appears to be increasing, and that this increase poses an increased threat to citizens, properties, and sacred sites,” the commission’s report concluded.

The report said not enough was being done to address the concerns. It recommended a number of solutions, including better management of vegetation around power lines and creating fuel buffers around the lines. 

County and state officials didn’t return calls seeking comment. 

Sweeping Wildfire

Fires started on Tuesday devastated Lahaina.

Sources: Whisker Labs; Maxar Technologies, Planet Labs (satellite images); OpenStreetMap (building footprints)

The month the county report was released, Hawaiian Electric broached wildfire risk with the utilities commission. In a proceeding focused on modernizing the power grid, it proposed some wildfire-mitigation work on Maui, including upgrading power lines and installing weather cameras and smart technology—some of the initiatives mentioned in its 2019 announcement. 

The regulatory proceeding stalled, and only recently resumed.

Jennifer Potter, who served as a state utilities commissioner from 2018 until November 2022, said the utility should have been more aggressive in presenting its plans on wildfire risk. “With the increase in wildfires that did occur, in particular on Maui, it wouldn’t have been unreasonable for [Hawaiian Electric] to have a more robust wildfire plan,” she said. 

Potter also said the commission itself could have been more assertive in demanding that the utility give priority to wildfire mitigation. “Because it wasn’t an emergency, it didn’t receive the attention that it needed,” she said. She called it a “missed opportunity.” 

In June 2022, Hawaiian Electric sought regulatory permission to raise rates to fund a more comprehensive plan to prepare the grid for new climate change-related stresses, including elevated risk of wildfire. It said it planned to spend about $190 million across Hawaii on removing potentially hazardous trees, replacing and upgrading power lines, and other protective measures, many of which have been undertaken by other utilities throughout the West. 

As in many regulatory proceedings, the proposal has taken months to advance. The state utilities commission and other stakeholders asked dozens of questions of the company. In responses filed before the Maui fire occurred, Hawaiian Electric said it believed there was an urgent need to complete the upgrades, but that it wouldn’t start on the work until it has state approval to recoup costs from customers—a common occurrence when utilities seek to make large investments.

In a filing in June, the commission said: “In light of the asserted urgency of these transmission and distribution resiliency upgrades, why did Hawaiian Electric not begin to initiate some of these projects sooner?” 

The company hasn’t yet responded.

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This week, the ruble fell to its lowest level since the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. YURI KADOBNOV/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit

Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects

WSJ by Chelsey Dulaney and Georgi Kantchev, Aug. 17, 2023

The Russian central bank’s jumbo interest-rate increase to halt a tumbling ruble this week points to a new reality for the Kremlin: Russia’s economy has reached its speed limit.

The government has flooded the Russian economy with money to keep its troops in Ukraine supplied and insulate its businesses and citizens from the war. Thanks to the state’s largess, demand in the economy is rising, helping it recover from last year’s sanctions-induced recession. Supply—increasingly constrained by Russia’s isolation and widespread labor shortages—isn’t.

That growing imbalance of Russia’s wartime economy was thrust into focus this week as the ruble fell to its lowest level since the early days of the war. A senior Kremlin official blamed the currency drop on loose monetary policy. A day later, Russia’s central bank hiked interest rates by 3.5 percentage points at an emergency meeting, citing the need to stabilize the currency and bring down inflation, which it said has been growing at an annualized rate of 7.6% over the last three months.

The ruble has staged a rebound, with $1 now buying roughly 95 rubles compared with as much as 102 on Monday. Economists see this week’s volatility not as the beginning of an imminent financial crisis but rather as a symptom of Russia’s sclerotic economic prospects.

How many rubles by $1

Russian invades Ukraine

Note: The Y-axis is reversed to show the ruble's depreciation against the dollar.

One step Russia’s central bank is now considering to boost the currency would reimpose requirements—used earlier in the war—on exporters to convert foreign earnings back into rubles, according to media reports.

“Russia is one of the few countries that could sustain for the longest. I don’t think they’re necessarily going to run out of money or whatnot,” said Erik Meyersson, chief emerging-market strategist at Swedish bank SEB.  

But the level at which the Russian economy can grow without stoking inflation is now much lower than before Western sanctions. The decline of this so-called potential growth rate sets up a dilemma for President Vladimir Putin as he needs to both boost military production and placate the domestic population ahead of the coming presidential elections in March.

Government spending as part of gross domestic product has jumped by 13.5% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, the highest growth rate in data going back to 1996.

The International Monetary Fund has estimated that Russia’s potential growth rate was around 3.5% before 2014, the year it seized Crimea from Ukraine.

Analysts at Raiffeisenbank Russia estimate the long-term potential growth of the economy now stands at 0.9%. In the years running up to the 2008 financial crisis, Russia’s economy averaged growth of more than 7% a year.

“The devaluation of the ruble shows that the economic fireworks of booming public spending are not sustainable,” said Janis Kluge, an expert on the Russian economy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “The speed limit is not what the government can finance, but what the economy can produce.”

Russia’s ability to increase production at its own factories is already stretched to the limit. In sectors supplying the military, plants are working multiple shifts to cope with orders. Statistical categories associated with military output, such as metal goods, optical products and special clothing, boomed in the first half of the year. 

Nonmilitary industrial sectors, meanwhile, have languished, weighed down by the lack of access to Western parts, inefficiency and a history of weak investment in upkeep of machines and equipment. Auto output is down more than 10% year-over-year. As a result, Russia’s economy has become increasingly centered on its vast natural resources, with profits from energy and metals filling the government’s coffers.

Russia has tried to become more self-sufficient since it invaded Ukraine last February and was cut off from Western supply networks. Those efforts are slow-moving and so far having mixed success. Some 65% of industrial enterprises in Russia are dependent on imported equipment, according to a poll published in June by Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. 

“Building up capacity in new sectors takes time,” said Iikka Korhonen, the head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies. “You need machinery, you need qualified technicians. All that takes resources and it takes time.”

Russia has turned abroad to fill the gap. Imports of goods were up 18% this year through July, according to data from the finance ministry. Imports from China have surged and Russia’s defense minister recently visited North Korea to view weapons systems. 

Russia’s growing dependence on imports has major implications for its economic stability. The economy still runs a current-account surplus, broadly meaning it receives more from exports than it spends on imports. But that surplus has fallen 85% this year, which means less money is flowing into the economy and a lower demand for rubles. A weakening ruble also makes imports more expensive in ruble terms, driving up inflation.

Russia has been less successful at finding new suppliers for mid-tech and high-tech products such as aircraft parts that have been hit by Western sanctions. Those imports were down $7 billion in the final quarter of 2022 compared with a year earlier, according to an analysis published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Russia’s growing technological isolation is expected to reduce its long-term growth prospects, which were bleak even before the war. The country’s labor force has been shrinking for more than a decade as its population ages. Productivity has been weak owing to a lack of investment and a business climate rife with corruption and bureaucracy.

How might the state of the Russian economy affect the war in Ukraine? Join the conversation below.

Those trends have only worsened over the past year. Russia is facing its worst labor shortage since the 1990s as hundreds of thousands are mobilized for the front or have fled the country. 

“There’s almost no supply left in Russia’s economy, and the inevitable result of that is going to be inflation,” said Liam Peach, senior emerging-market economist at Capital Economics.

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A downed power line in Lahaina on Aug. 14.

David Butow for TIME

Why Hawaiian Electric Is Facing a Lawsuit After Deadly Wildfires in Maui

TIME by SIMMONE SHAH,  AUGUST 16, 2023  | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: AUGUST 15, 2023 

In the wake of wildfires that ripped through Maui last week, many are seeking answers about what caused the deadliest wildfire in the U.S. in over a century. That search has put Hawaiian Electric, which serves 95% of the island state’s 1.4 million residents, in the spotlight. The utility provider is facing a lawsuit over alleged inaction in the face of the destructive Lahaina wildfire that has killed at least 99 people on the island of Maui.

Though an official cause of the wildfire has not been reached, Lahaina residents filed a class action lawsuit against the utility company, alleging that, in the days before the fires broke out, the company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.” The filing also claims that the company failed to shut off power lines even after the fires began.

No shut-off plan

Hawaiian Electric did not deploy a public power shutoff plan—an aggressive safety strategy used in other states, such as California, Oregon and Nevada—to proactively shut down power to communities with high wind conditions and increased risks of fire. 

Intense wind gusts knocked down approximately 30 utility poles across the region on August 8, many onto trees and roads, and complicated evacuations, according to Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen, who confirmed that some electrical lines were energized when they hit the ground.

According to the Washington Post, Hawaiian Electric was aware that a power shut-off was an useful strategy, but didn’t include the step in it in its fire mitigation plans. Hawaiian Electric spokesman Jim Kelly, told CNN that the utility company does not have a formal shut-off program in place, since the power is needed to provide water for firefighters.

“Pre-emptive, short-notice power shut-offs have to be coordinated with first-responders and in Lahaina, electricity powers the pumps that provide the water needed for firefighting,” Kelly told the New York Times.

Research firm CoreLogic has estimated that the residential property damages stand at $1.3 billion, but Hawaii Gov. Josh Green estimates the losses “approach $6 billion.” On Friday, Hawaii Attorney General Anne Lopez announced a “comprehensive review” of the decisions and policies surrounding the fires, which the state’s emergency measures were largely unprepared for. 

An emergency management plan published by the state of Hawaii in February 2022 rated wildfires as low and medium risk across the board for its effect on people, property, the environment, and emergency management program operations.

The state’s outdoor emergency siren system—which it says is the largest in the world—is meant to alert residents to tsunamis and other natural disasters, but it did not activate during the fires. 

Scrutiny and lawsuit

Power lines have been responsible for the spread of many destructive wildfires in the U.S.  From 1992 to 2020 federal, state and local fire services dealt with 32,652 powerline-ignited wildfires across the country, according to Inside Climate News. In California alone, the electric company PG&E has been blamed for more than 30 wildfires since 2017 that wiped out more than 23,000 homes and businesses and killed more than 100 people. The company recently reached a $150 million settlement for its involvement in the 2020 Zogg fires. 

Documents filed in the Hawaiian Electric lawsuit allege that the company had studied wildfire mitigation plans filed by California utility companies, which included a shut-off plan during high wind and so-called “red flag”—when warm temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds combine to produce an increased fire risk—conditions to prevent wildfires. But the documents allege that Hawaiian Electric never created a plan of its own. 

In an emailed statement to TIME, Hawaiian Electric said it does not comment on pending litigation. "Our immediate focus is on supporting emergency response efforts on Maui and restoring power for our customers and communities as quickly as possible," the statement added. "At this early stage, the cause of the fire has not been determined and we will work with the state and county as they conduct their review."

Amid the scrutiny, Hawaiian Electric has seen its share price tumble, plunging over 40% to a 13-year low, on Monday morning following the lawsuit. The company’s shares were down more than 30% on Tuesday.

Government filings show that the company reported its plans to make infrastructure more resilient, including putting lines underground in vulnerable areas, hardening poles and launching a program to remove hazardous trees. 

“The risk of a utility system causing a wildfire ignition is significant,” the company wrote in one filing, noting that a large objective was to “minimize the probability of the Companies’ facilities becoming the origin or contributing source of ignition for a wildfire”.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Image by Germán & Co.

As Brazil's president, Lula is enjoying a favorable period with an approval rating of 60 percent.

Support for the leftist leader is increasing among evangelicals and in the southern part of the country, owing to the economic influence.

"El País" Naiara Galarraga Gortázar, São Paulo, August 17, 2023 - Translation and editing in English by Germán & Co.

Eight months after taking the reins of Brazil's presidency, 77-year-old Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is currently experiencing a favorable period despite facing a coup attempt within the first week. According to the Genial/Quaest poll released on Wednesday, 60 percent of Brazilians approve of Lula's performance as president, marking the highest approval rate of his third term, while 35 percent disapprove. His growing popularity is due to the current economic situation, which his compatriots view optimistically, mitigating the previous reluctance towards left-leaning politicians in the south and among evangelical voters. Both groups overwhelmingly supported his opponent, Jair Bolsonaro, in the elections.

These recent results indicate that, compared to the previous poll two months ago, Lula has gained four points in support for his work as president, and his rejection rate has fallen by five points. These levels of support are a relief for the president, primarily since he has just hosted a major summit in the Amazon and presented his grand investment plan.
Lula has a packed international schedule, which includes his upcoming trip to Africa next week. During a phone conversation on Wednesday that lasted 30 minutes, he spoke with his counterpart, US President Joe Biden, who acknowledged "the obligations of developed countries [in relation to climate change] and the necessity of assisting developing countries [in coping with the consequences]," as per a statement issued by the Brazilian presidency.

The ambitious objective is to inject $350 billion into the economy through public and private works in all states. During the revealed plan, Lula announced that it is no longer the time for ministers to propose new ideas; instead, the objective now is to deliver what has been pledged. A few experts express doubt regarding the consistency of the growth acceleration programme because it needs to elucidate the source of funds or priorities fully.

The federal government's job receives less endorsement and criticism than the president's, with 42 per cent approving, 29 per cent considering it neutral, and 24 per cent negative.

Backing for the leader of the Workers' Party (PT) in the wealthier and less diverse southern region of the country has surged by an impressive 11 points, reaching the national average. Although the south of states are considered strongholds of Bolsonarism, the Safra (harvest) initiative, targeting support for farmers, has had an impact. The far-right leader Bolsonaro maintains a low profile amid daily press reports exposing new insights into the manoeuvres of his closest aides to sell valuable gifts he received while in office.

The economic scenario experienced by Lula since he assumed office has been favorable. Millions of families have welcomed the program he launched to encourage debt negotiation with banks stuck in debt. The unemployment rate is approximately 9%, although the informal sector employs 40 million of the workforce (in a country of 203 million people). In the first quarter, GDP grew by 4% compared to the same period last year.

And among evangelicals, a group that votes fairly homogeneously, for the first time, Lula has more supporters (50%) than opponents (46%), although the difference is small and well below the national average. The leaders of the main evangelical denominations have a political alliance with Bolsonaro that Lula is trying to erode as he seeks to broaden his parliamentary support in search of a majority in Congress, which is currently dominated by Bolsonaro's supporters. While Brazilian legislators are always willing to negotiate, it is a question of agreeing on the price.

In any case, the president's current popularity ratings are a far cry from Lula's record, a fact he likes to point out. When Brazil's first workers' president left power in 2010, he enjoyed more than 80% support. None of his predecessors or successors came close. There was no way of knowing then how strong the anti-Petism would become, fueled by Bolsonaro and his supporters, and that the former president would spend time in prison before staging an equally unexpected political resurrection.

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Javier Milei was pictured in Buenos Aires on 14th June after an interview on the television programme 'A dos voces'
Tomas Cuesta

THE ANATOMY OF TWITTER

A POLITICAL TSUNAMI BY MILEI

IF THE FAR-RIGHT CANDIDATE WINS THE PRESIDENCY, HE WILL ELIMINATE SEVERAL MINISTRIES. TO CLARIFY HIS PROJECT, HE UPLOADED A VIDEO ON TIKTOK WITH AN IMPECCABLE STAGING THAT MATCHED HIS PROFILE.

"El País" Federico Rivas Molina, 17th August 2023, translation and editing to English by Germán & Co.

Javier Milei, a figure with curly black hair who pledges to eliminate 'the political elite' in Argentina, has already become a significant phenomenon in his country. On Sunday, August 13th, he emerged as the most-voted candidate in the primary elections and now stands a strong chance to win the initial round of the general elections in October. Self-proclaimed as an 'anarcho-capitalist', he is an ultra-liberal libertarian who advocates for the elimination of the state in a mixture of ideas that include promises of unrestricted firearm ownership, legal trading of organs, and adoption of the US dollar to combat inflation.
Milei is a television product - his continuous staring into the camera while making derogatory remarks amplified his popularity and secured him a spot on talk shows and social media platforms on a daily basis. It was too late by the time the monster fled. While Milei is a provocative figure, he is above all a self-promoter. He is known for wearing black leather and never smiling in front of a camera. He even goes by the moniker 'the lion'. One of his most memorable speeches showcases him smashing a box that represents the Central Bank with a cane. Milei vows to 'set it on fire' in order to put a stop to the issuance of money.

On October 22nd, the economist will compete against the conservative candidate Patricia Bullrich, who came second in the elections for the Juntos por el Cambio alliance, and Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate and current Economy Minister. At the beginning of the week, Milei unexpectedly gained political fame, and he recently announced some of his proposed policies if he were to assume power. He remembers that controversy fuels his campaign. For instance, Milei stated that he would repeal the abortion law, which has been in force since December 2020, through a referendum. The progressive electorate is opposed to this, making it a particularly sensitive topic. However, the left did not come out to denounce him. Candidate Bullrich, who was the security minister under Mauricio Macri's (2015-2019) government, called it madness to spend time on popular consultations when it is urgent to reduce inflation and address poverty.

Argentina is currently facing its umpteenth economic crisis. Inflation has risen above 110% per month year on year, the value of the peso is declining daily against the dollar, and the Central Bank's reserves are critically low, while the International Monetary Fund awaits. Minister and political candidate Massa will be traveling to Washington this week to finalize a new agreement with the multilateral forum. Milei boasted on television on Tuesday. He stated that he had already received a call from Kristalina Georgieva's offices. He was asked if they are afraid of him at the IMF. He replied, stating that he was not afraid of them as the fiscal adjustment he has in mind is much tougher than the one demanded in Washington to open the financing tap.

Most of this adjustment will be paid for by the state, as per Milei's proposed plan of jibarization. He has said that if he reaches the Casa Rosada, he will eliminate the ministries of education, health, and social development. He argues that "social justice" is a robbery paid for by those who work, and he will fire hundreds of thousands of state employees who are on precarious contracts. He uploaded a video on TikTok with a mise-en-scène suitable for his profile to make his project clear. Milei's state will only handle matters pertaining to defense, internal security, and foreign relations. Its main international partners will be the United States and Israel; he has vowed to relocate the Argentine embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The Milei wave has rocked Argentine politicians. It remains to be seen if he will succeed in sustaining the wave and confirming his triumph in the final election.

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News Round-Up, August 16, 2023

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The Best in the Biz – August 10, 2023

Posted to Energy Centralin the Utility Management Group

EPA Plan Would Impose Drastic Cuts on Power Plant Emissions by 2040

German Toro Ghio

Link to original article: https://energycentral.com/c/ee/epa-plan-would-impose-drastic-cuts-power-plant-emissions-2040

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President Bill Clinton, Israel Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat walking through Camp David.

Deepened lost in diplomacy...

Mr. Henry Kissinger, during his interview for the Portfolio Magazine at the French restaurant Jubilee in downtown Manhattan, New York, on July 27, 2018, warned of the urgent need to broaden global communication channels, particularly with China. He emphasized the potential for global order disruptions if this critical diplomatic work is still pending.
In this interview, in Mr. Kissinger's eyes, French President Emmanuel Macron stands out as a commendable world leader with a unique and expansive vision. Macron's ability to think beyond conventional boundaries has positioned him as a significant influencer on the global stage. Despite this, his attempts to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin have thus far proven unsuccessful. Macron's efforts to establish a productive dialogue with Putin still need to catch up.
Turning to China, Mr. Kissinger acknowledges its professed desire for world peace. However, China's ambivalent position has hindered the establishment of clear pathways towards achieving this overarching goal. While the country may outwardly express aspirations for global harmony, its actions and stances have yet to align with those intentions consistently.
Another wild card is Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who holds an open telephone line with President Putin and Zelensky, has struggled to achieve tangible results in his diplomatic endeavors. Despite the promise of direct communication, President Erdoğan has faced challenges bridging gaps and achieving meaningful progress.
While seeking a resurgence in his political career, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva viewed the ongoing conflicts as an opportunity. Unfortunately, Lula's efforts, similar to his other diplomatic attempts, have failed to yield the desired outcomes. This setback underscores the complexity of navigating international disputes and finding practical solutions. Lastly, Norway, known for its commitment to peace and goodwill, has played a pivotal role in facilitating numerous peace processes and honouring individuals with the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the country's focus on safeguarding its borders against Russian aggression has diverted attention and resources from actively contributing to broader global peacemaking efforts.

In summary, Mr Kissinger's perspective highlights world leaders' challenges in pursuing international cooperation and peace. While Macron's visionary approach is celebrated, his inability to engage successfully with Putin demonstrates the complexities of diplomatic relations.

The paradox of world leaders knowing and accepting Russia's impending invasion of Ukraine two years in advance is a striking revelation that challenges our understanding of international relations and diplomacy. It begs the question of why, despite this knowledge, no significant action was taken to prevent or deter such a devastating military incursion.

The image of President Bill Clinton, Israel Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat walking through Camp David is a powerful symbol of diplomacy and its potential to resolve conflicts. This image refers to a different time: the successful negotiation of the Camp David Accords between Israel and the Palestinians in 2000, facilitated by Clinton's dedication to finding a peaceful resolution.

Similarly, the outstanding diplomatic work of Clinton's Russian counterpart, Boris Yeltsin, deserves recognition. As the leader of Russia, Yeltsin played a crucial role in shaping the country's foreign policy and relations with other nations. His collaboration with Clinton on various issues showcased a commitment to finding common ground and resolving conflicts through dialogue.

The friendship between President Yeltsin and President Clinton was a diplomatic alliance and a genuine bond built on trust and mutual respect. Their relationship was characterized by lighthearted banter and a shared sense of humor. This camaraderie led Yeltsin to playfully describe Clinton as a disaster man. Such words provoked uncontrollable laughter from President Clinton. This clever comment highlighted the strong bond between the two leaders.During President Clinton's final visit to Russia on the 5th of June 2000, he met with newly appointed President Vladimir Putin. Following the meeting, Clinton had the opportunity to reunite with his dear friend, former President Yeltsin. At this reunion, Yeltsin admitted that he had mistakenly designated Putin as his successor. Their friendship is a reminder that laughter and genuine connections can bridge gaps between nations, even in international politics. It reminds us who needs to do the job.

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Most read…

California’s planning a renewable energy project at a scale never before attempted in the world

The Newsom administration’s path to net-zero carbon emissions runs through one of the state’s poorer, most remote areas.

POLITICO USA by WES VENTEICHER, August 15, 2023

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk by WSJ

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET.

In Georgia and federal indictments, two vastly different approaches

Fani Willis’s sprawling case allows prosecutors to target Trump’s broad scheme. But legal experts and critics say both the scope and specificity could be a problem.

TWP by Amy Gardner, Holly Bailey, Amber Phillips and Shayna Jacobs, updated August 15, 2023 

Why This Company’s Financial Crisis Threatens China’s Economy

Country Garden was China’s biggest real estate developer. Now it is staring down default, facing billions of dollars in losses and $200 billion in unpaid bills.

NYT by Alexandra Stevenson, Reporting from Hong Kong,  August 15, 2023

Latest news from Latinamerica

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Vital Natural Gas Is Being Stashed in Caverns Beneath War-Torn Ukraine

Commodity merchants are pumping natural gas into Ukrainian reservoirs, hoping the war doesn’t disrupt potential profits

WSJ by Joe Wallace, updated Aug. 16, 2023 

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Pulp Mill at sunset in Humboldt Bay, California. | Gary Crabbe / Enlightened Images / Alamy Stock Photo / Edited by Germán & Co.

California’s planning a renewable energy project at a scale never before attempted in the world

The Newsom administration’s path to net-zero carbon emissions runs through one of the state’s poorer, most remote areas.

POLITICO USA by WES VENTEICHER, August 15, 2023

EUREKA, Calif. — A 300-foot tall smokestack from a defunct paper mill looms over the port in Humboldt Bay, a relic of the timber industry that once defined the northwestern corner of California along with the struggling salmon fishing industry and sputtering marijuana trade.

But a gust of optimism has arrived in Humboldt County over plans to develop offshore wind at a depth and scale never before attempted in the world – sparking hope and anxiety in a region that has lived through repeated boom-and-bust cycles and ended up with one of the lower per-capita incomes in the state.

“This is a generational project,” said Jeff Hunerlach, secretary-treasurer of a council of construction unions for Humboldt and neighboring Del Norte County. “I could work 20 years on this project and my kid could work 20 years on this project.”

The floating offshore wind turbines proposed would barely be visible according to a rendering from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. | Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

The offshore wind proposal, driven by the Biden and Newsom administration efforts to dramatically increase renewable energy, would erect dozens of turbines three times the size of that smokestack with blades as long as a football field in an area of the Pacific Ocean nearly 10 times the size of Manhattan.

The turbines, which would be about 20 miles from shore in water up to 2,500 feet deep, are a key part of the state’s plan to generate enough offshore wind energy to power more than 20 million homes.

Getting the turbines to remote Humboldt County and then assembling them would be a significant undertaking – one that would create the need for heavy investment in an area that has seen little for many years.

“It’s a lot of good-paying jobs if we do it right,” said U.S. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael), whose district includes the bay. “This can be part of lifting up the regional economy in a way that is better than anything to come along in decades.”

Rob Holmlund, executive director of the Humboldt Bay Harbor, Recreation and Conservation District, likens the endeavor to the moon landing.

A 2023 rendering prepared for the Humboldt Bay Harbor District. | Moffatt & Nichol

“We’re talking about completely transitioning our entire energy system,” Holmlund said. “It’s an ambitious goal for the betterment of humanity.”

But the project faces a host of major challenges. They include not just the obvious economic and bureaucratic hurdles but also a widespread distrust of outsiders in a region where indiscriminate logging engendered deep resentment and where an illegal marijuana industry created a counterculture haven in the fog-shrouded mountains.

The region is still recovering from mistakes of the past. International wind developers are pitching their projects just as many residents celebrate the removal of Klamath River dams the Yurok Tribe and the fishing industry fought for decades. The structures destroyed rich salmon habitat to export hydropower even as many native people lived without electricity.

“It has to be done right,” said Yurok Vice Chairman Frankie Myers. “Because we have to avoid being in the same position we are now 50 years from now. I’ve spent most of my life fighting the dams. I do not want to leave my children a fight to remove offshore wind.”

The destination for agenda-setting coverage of politics, policy and power that shapes the conversation in the world's fifth-largest economy.

The developers — German-based RWE Energy and Danish-backed Vineyard Offshore — secured federal leases in December for a combined $332 million that include decommissioning requirements and set aside a portion of the money for community benefits.

The companies are opening offices in the area, holding meetings and sponsoring local events.

“As a company we believe there are great opportunities ahead, because this can create jobs and other opportunities,” said Lars Pedersen, Vineyard Offshore’s CEO. “But we have to do that being respectful of those who live there and have been living there a long time.”

The Newsom administration’s path to zeroing out the state’s carbon emissions by 2045 runs right through the bay. It’s the only developed port from San Francisco to Coos Bay, Oregon, able to accommodate assembly of the massive turbines. The area could ultimately supply the turbines for both California — which would need around 1,700 to reach its goal — and the rest of the West Coast. Additional leases are expected in Washington, Oregon and offshore from the Northern California counties of Mendocino and Del Norte.

President Joe Biden wants the nation to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Offshore wind is central to both administrations’ plans due to its ability to displace the burning of fossil fuels, particularly in the evening when solar power drops off.

Reaching those goals will require the state and nation to advance offshore wind and accompanying transmission projects at speeds that governments haven’t achieved in generations.

“All of it has to work together in what is a really complex and almost overwhelming set of challenges,” said Huffman.

The Harbor District is partnering with Crowley Wind Services, a division of the international logistics company, to develop a 180-acre terminal on property occupied by a former pulp mill.

The land — which now hosts two seaweed farms, an oyster hatchery and temporary storage for freshly caught hagfish — would be transformed into an industrial terminal with up to 650,000 square feet of building space, lights mounted 150 feet in the air and giant cranes that crawl through the water on tank treads.

The district is in early permitting stages under the California Environmental Quality Act, which can be a lengthy process even as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Legislature recently took steps to limit the duration of legal challenges filed under the law.

Gov. Gavin Newsom is planning on offshore wind powering roughly 25 million homes by 2045. | Bruce Gilbert/AP Images for Bloomberg Philanthropies

At the same time, the project developers are initiating a federal permitting process that’s expected to take six years. They’re assessing impacts to the economy, tribes and lands.

The projects would affect fishermen the most, impacting the Dover sole, thornyhead, and sablefish fisheries offshore and harvests of Dungeness crab, baitfish and shellfish within the bay. The extent of the threat, along with the effects on birds and whales, is still being assessed.

The companies are addressing technical challenges of operating the floating turbines and transmitting energy to shore from floating platforms connected by cable to the ocean floor 2,500 feet below. While fixed-bottom turbines are common in Europe and are arriving on the East Coast, the floating variety have never been used in such deep water.

Transmission projects of the scale needed to carry 25 gigawatts of wind energy 270 miles from Humboldt to San Francisco have in the past taken more than a decade, and an overland line would need to run through environmentally sensitive areas as well as populated communities that may not welcome them. An undersea cable is being considered, but deep underwater canyons and other features make that option logistically daunting.

On land, leaders such as Yurok Tribal Court Judge Abby Abinanti worry how the expected influx of construction and manufacturing labor, some likely to occupy temporary “mancamps,” will affect vulnerable people such as native women who already go missing and are killed at higher rates than other groups.

“Our concern is that these camps end up elevating those kinds of statistics unless preventative efforts are made,” said Abinanti.

She also wants to make sure women have the same access as men to the new jobs through training.

And then there’s the cost. The price tag to develop 25 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2045 is about $100 billion — not including some major outlays such as transmission upgrades, according to a National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimate.

Costs have ballooned even beyond expectations in New York and New Jersey, prompting developers to seek more money from those states and their electricity customers. Wind developers have canceled some of their plans in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

If they come, the turbines will barely be visible from shore in daylight once they’re towed out to the deep sea. At night, red lights affixed to their tops will line the horizon — a new symbol for an industry that will once again redefine life on the northern coast.

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Photo by Germán & Co.

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk by WSJ

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET.

1646 ET – The American Petroleum Institute reports US commercial inventories of crude oil fell by 6.2 million barrels last week, while gasoline supplies rose by 700,000 barrels, a source citing the data says. The results were released ahead of official EIA inventory data due tomorrow morning. Average forecasts in a WSJ survey indicate the EIA report will show crude stockpiles fell by 1.7M barrels from the previous week and that gasoline decreased by 1.2M barrels. In late trading, WTI oil prices that were lower before the data were released reduced those declines slightly afterward, down 1.7% at $81.11 a barrel. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)

1457 ET – Natural gas prices in the US drop 4.9% to finish at $2.659/mmBtu as the market gets swept up by a broader sell-off in other energy commodities such as crude oil and gasoline. The past week has seen price movements in the US natural gas market being significantly influenced by markets outside its realm, with European gas markets moving US natural gas futures last week, and WTI oil prices seeming to be impacting natural gas markets in today’s session. This is partly because rising US LNG exports have made the domestic gas market more global. Also, an increase in associated gas production in the US from oil-producing shale regions is linking the two markets, oil and gas, closer together. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)

1448 ET – US crude futures fall for a second straight day, ending the session 1.8% lower at $80.99 a barrel as investors continue to fret over weak US and global demand. Crude-oil production cuts throughout the summer by the Saudi and Russian-led OPEC-plus group are keeping supplies relatively tight, but the mere fact that producers have to keep reducing output to avoid oversupplies is sending a bearish signal to investors regarding the world’s economic health. Data today showing Chinese retail sales and industrial production grew less than expected in July reflected that economic weakness, and with the US manufacturing sector still in recession, WTI oil seems to be struggling to stay above $80. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)

1436 ET – While US exports of liquefied natural gas to places like Europe and Asia have skyrocketed over the past decade, the US is still also exporting massive amounts of natural gas the old-fashioned way—by pipeline. And last month pipelined gas flows to Mexico hit a new all-time high. The EIA, citing Wood Mackenzie data, says in a report that US natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.8 billion cubic feet per day in June, topping a previous record set in June 2021. Mexico is far and away the top recipient of US natural gas, receiving more than one-third of all US natural gas or LNG volumes in 2022, and nearly four times as much as top US LNG recipient France. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)

1119 ET – Class-action lawsuits against Hawaiian Electric Industries are raising the risk around the company’s credit. S&P Global Ratings downgrades the company to BB- following the filing of class-action lawsuits against Hawaiian Electric on behalf of residents who have had their homes destroyed by wildfires. S&P says the total cost to rebuild will be an estimated $5.5 billion, far greater than the company’s book equity of $2.2 billion. S&P also says the wildfires have destroyed a portion of the company’s customer base, which will damage profitability. Shares fall 8.6% to $19.61. (ben.glickman@wsj.com; @benglickman)

0900 ET – Refining cracks, a term for measuring refiners’ profits, are doing better in the second half of 2023 than the first half, and that’s adding some upward momentum to oil prices by firming up demand, says Energy Intelligence. “Refining cracks-diesel in particular-are improving,” it says in a note. “The first half of the year featured a steady decline in diesel and distillate prices/cracks as macro concerns took hold. In Asia, diesel cracks drifted to near zero. Since June, along with the improved macro sentiment as well as a pickup in demand, a gradual rebound has taken shape although margin levels are still well below where they were 6-12 months ago.” (dan.molinski@wsj.com)

0846 ET – Cosan has a lot of cash to make acquisitions after the Brazilian energy and sugar conglomerate’s recent debt issuance, said XP Investimentos analysts André Vidal and Helena Klum in a research note. Cosan said Monday evening that its net revenue declined 19% in 2Q from a year earlier, while it swung to a net profit in the period from a net loss a year earlier. Cosan’s debt level rose slightly, but the current level is still controlled and its cost of debt is low, giving it the firepower it needs to add to its portfolio, the analysts said. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

0843 ET – The resignation of Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras’s CEO, Wilson Ferreira Junior, will probably be negative at first for the share price of the Brazilian power company known as Eletrobras, but his replacement is also experienced and capable so his departure should only have a short-term impact, said Citi Research analyst Antonio Junqueira in a research note. Eletrobras said Ivan Monteiro, a former CEO of Petrobras, will replace Ferreira at the top of the electric utility. Monteiro has a top-notch resume and is a solid executive, Junqueira says.(jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

2245 ET – Ratch Group may benefit from higher-than-expected electricity output at its new wind farms in Australia, Thanachart Securities analyst Nuttapop Prasitsuksant says in a research report. The brokerage lifts its earnings estimates for the independent power producer by 2% for 2024 and 10% for 2025, to reflect the higher-than-anticipated capacity factor of the company’s newly acquired 212-megawatt wind project in Australia. The stock’s valuation has also become more justified at 9 times price-to-earnings with a 5% dividend yield in 2024 following the share price’s sharp year-to-date decline, the analyst says. The brokerage raises the stock’s rating to hold from sell and increases target price to THB36.00 from THB33.00. Shares last quoted at THB35.50. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2229 ET – CSE Global’s 2H earnings outlook appears brighter, driven by its record-high order book of S$522 million in 1H, UOB Kay Hian analysts say in a research report. The technologies company’s 2023 earnings could more than quadruple from a low base of S$5 million in 2022, and it should be able to deliver its contracts faster and enjoy a recovery in margins as supply-chain disruptions ease, the analysts say. CSE Global highlighted that its diversification strategy to invest in and acquire communications businesses has contributed to a better financial performance, the analysts add. They raise the stock’s target price to S$0.61 from S$0.60 with an unchanged buy rating. Shares are unchanged at S$0.465. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2137 ET – YTL Power International is likely to report stronger fiscal 4Q earnings after it raised power tariffs for its Singapore and U.K. subsidiaries, says Kenanga IB analyst Teh Kian Yeong in a note. YTL’s 4Q earnings may rise 10%-20% on quarter to MYR585 million-MYR590 million driven by a 43% hike in Singapore’s electricity retail prices and about a 9% tariff hike for U.K.’s sewerage utility company Wessex Water from April. Teh raises YTL’s FY 2023 and FY 2024’s profit estimates by 26% and 34%, respectively, to factor in higher earnings contributions from its Singapore and U.K. subsidiaries. Kenanga raises the stock’s target price to MYR1.85 from MYR1.48 and maintains an outperform rating. Shares are 0.6% lower at MYR1.56.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

1712 ET – Toronto stocks finish with losses, as the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index falls 117 points, or 0.6%, to 20290. The blue-chip S&P/TSX 60 Index also slips 0.6% to 1215. Gains in the healthcare sector were offset by broad declines elsewhere, particularly in telecommunications and base metals. Among the largest movers of the day was Boralex, with shares climbing more than 6% after the renewable energy producer reported stronger-than-expected 2Q earnings. (will.feuer@wsj.com; @WillFOIA)

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In Georgia and federal indictments, two vastly different approaches

Fani Willis’s sprawling case allows prosecutors to target Trump’s broad scheme. But legal experts and critics say both the scope and specificity could be a problem.

TWP by Amy Gardner, Holly Bailey, Amber Phillips and Shayna Jacobs, updated August 15, 2023 

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis speaks during a news conference regarding the grand jury indictment of former president Donald Trump and 18 co-conspirators at the Fulton County government building on Monday in Atlanta. (Joshua Lott/The Washington Post)

ATLANTA — Charges against former president Donald Trump and a raft of others in Fulton County, Ga., over their alleged efforts to overturn his 2020 defeat finally landed Monday, the result of a sprawling investigation that stretched over 2½ years and led to a complex racketeering case featuring 41 criminal counts against 19 defendants in a massive 98-page indictment.

Contrast that with a federal indictment filed against Trump on Aug. 1 in Washington that also accuses him of illegally attempting to subvert and overthrow the election. In that case, Justice Department prosecutors sought charges against Trump alone. They appeared to be aiming for speed and simplicity, producing a 45-page indictment featuring four charges after an investigation of the former president that began well after the Fulton probe.

Unlike the Georgia indictment, which alleges multiple instances of making false statements, witness tampering and impersonating a public officer — among dozens of other counts — the federal indictment avoids potentially complicated accusations that some advocates pushed for, such as seditious conspiracy or insurrection.

Legal experts said the difference in strategy comes with some advantages: District Attorney Fani Willis’s sprawling case will allow Fulton County prosecutors to tell the jury a story of a broad conspiracy to reverse election results in multiple states and build a forceful narrative of Trump’s actions in concert with numerous aides, lawyers and local officials. But experts warned that the logistics of putting Trump on trial along with 18 other people — each of whom may file a flurry of pretrial motions — in a racketeering indictment so complex and multilayered could carry unique difficulties.

Trump and his allies have attacked both Willis, a Democrat, and special counsel Jack Smith of the Justice Department for investigating alleged election interference, accusing them of conducting political witch hunts and attempting to interfere with the former president’s 2024 bid for the White House.

But even some of Trump’s critics have questioned the apparent breadth of Willis’s investigation and the challenge she faces in persuading a jury to criminalize statements about election fraud — including portraying a few seemingly innocuous tweets as furthering the conspiracy — that many view as protected speech under the First Amendment. She will also have to convince a jury that Trump and others knew what they were saying was false, and that they are not protected by the fact that in many instances they were following the advice of their lawyers.

Trump is indicted in Georgia on charges of racketeering. What it means, what happens next.

Willis’s ambitious decision to use Georgia’s expansive RICO statute — a law historically employed to prosecute mobsters — to charge Trump with leading a vast criminal enterprise to steal the 2020 election could allow her to target many more of those involved in the alleged conspiracy beyond Trump, potentially transforming the way political wrongdoing is punished.

Alternatively, her gambit to try all 19 defendants together could be seen by jurors as a massive instance of prosecutorial overreach. And despite Willis’s statement late Monday that she’d like to see a trial date within six months, the sprawling nature of the case could push the start beyond the 2024 election and take years — and many appeals — to resolve.

“This is eye-popping,” said John Malcolm, a former federal prosecutor based in Atlanta who is now a constitutional scholar at the conservative Heritage Foundation, speaking of the contrast between the federal and state indictments. “What about the right — when you believe allegations to be true, or you have some evidence to support the allegations — to seek redress? And all of a sudden they’re perpetrating a conspiracy? I think that’s astonishingly dangerous.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Country Garden’s offices in Foshan, China. Experts fear the company’s troubles could spill over into the financial markets.Credit...Agence France-Presse

Why This Company’s Financial Crisis Threatens China’s Economy

Country Garden was China’s biggest real estate developer. Now it is staring down default, facing billions of dollars in losses and $200 billion in unpaid bills.

NYT by Alexandra Stevenson, Reporting from Hong Kong,  August 15, 2023

Country Garden, a Chinese real estate giant, has lost billions of dollars and racked up $200 billion in unpaid bills. It’s on the hook to deliver, by one estimate, nearly one million apartments across hundreds of cities in China.

The privately owned developer, founded by a farmer three decades ago, is inching closer to default.

In China’s housing market, there are plenty of deadbeat developers no longer paying their bills. The possible collapse of Country Garden is one to pay attention to.

The company has tried to project confidence. “One shall pick himself up from where he has fallen,” Mo Bin, Country Garden’s president, said last week, pledging to “spare no effort.”

But the problem is much bigger than one company, and the timing could hardly be worse. A default by Country Garden would be the latest in a string of collapses in a housing market that has been hurting for years. Emerging from paralyzing lockdowns during the pandemic, China’s leaders badly need the country’s economic engine to pick up. Instead, growth is sputtering as housing prices fall, people spend less and consumer and business confidence wanes.

Now, experts fear that Country Garden’s troubles will spill over into the broader financial markets, thwarting any possible recovery of the real estate industry and spreading the damage through the economy.

How did Country Garden run into trouble?

A year ago, Country Garden was a model corporate citizen in an expanding universe of delinquent real estate companies that borrowed recklessly and then stopped paying their bills.

Country Garden, founded by Yang Guoqiang in 1992, was a beneficiary of the world’s biggest real estate boom. Its success turned Mr. Yang into a billionaire and became a testament to the country’s remarkable growth. Chinese people, having few other reliable options to build wealth, invested their incomes and savings in real estate. Like other big private developers, Country Garden kept borrowing and often borrowed more to pay back its loans, operating on the assumption that as long as it continued to expand, it could keep repaying its debt.

But the bills grew so big that the authorities began to fear the debt would threaten the broader financial system. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, ordered that homes should be for living, not for speculation. In 2020, the government cracked down, limiting the ability of real estate companies to raise money and prompting a series of defaults.

Even as other developers stopped paying their bills, Country Garden continued to make good on its obligations. It began to rely more heavily on the revenue from selling apartments before they were finished and using that money to help finance its operations.

A slump in home buying this year has placed the company in a crisis, facing what it described as the “biggest difficulties since its establishment.”

How big is the problem?

Markets, investors and home buyers are fearing the worst. In early August, Country Garden skipped two interest payments on loans. If it does not pay up by early September or get the creditors to give it more time after that 30-day grace period, it will default. Investors are not likely to lend it more money if that happens. The company’s share price has fallen below $1 in Hong Kong.

Country Garden’s losses are mounting. It has said it expects to report a loss of as much as $7.6 billion in the first six months of the year.

Even if people were still buying Country Garden’s apartments, they would not be able to buy enough of them to make up the financial shortfall, experts said. Besides, who wants to buy an apartment from a company that might not be around to finish building it?

All of this has led to worries that Country Garden will end up like China Evergrande, a real estate behemoth that collapsed in 2021 and set off panic in global markets.

“The Country Garden default could be as influential as Evergrande simply because it is so huge,” said Rosealea Yao, a real estate analyst at Gavekal, a China focused research firm.

And it could be even worse. A handful of big developers have already defaulted. The market is more on edge than it was when Evergrande failed. Policymakers, while recently vowing to support the housing market, have not done enough to bolster confidence.

“Things may get worse before the government reacts,” Ms. Yao said.

Can the government save Country Garden?

Maybe. Chinese policymakers have pulled all the stops before. And after years of tightening the screws, China’s top leadership has signaled a pivot in its approach, pledging to adjust its policy and take steps like lowering interest rates to make it easier to buy apartments.

But the measures so far have not been big enough to reverse the housing slump. Policymakers are unlikely to go back to the days when companies could amass huge piles of debt for speculative projects.

The housing market is also no longer growing like it did during the real estate boom that urbanized much of China in the 1990s and early 2000s.

China’s leaders have made it clear that the country cannot depend so heavily on real estate for economic growth. Gone are the days of real estate bubbles fueled by banks and investors throwing money at developers. More likely, some experts said, is that policymakers will do their best to make sure buyers get the apartments they paid for.

Many big questions remain unanswered. What, for example, happens to the Chinese economy if developers like Country Garden never pay back suppliers like painters and construction workers?

By one estimate from Gavekal Research, unpaid bills from private Chinese developers total $390 billion.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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When the crisis becomes permanent//www.ips-journal.eu

Latest news from Latinamerica

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Tuesday, 15 August 2023

BRAZIL: Surprise resignation of Eletrobras CEO

On 14 August Brazil’s electricity company Eletrobras, which was privatised in June 2022, announced the resignation of its CEO, Wilson Ferreira Junior. 

Tuesday, 15 August 2023

HAITI: Police disperse another protest over insecurity

On 14 August Haiti’s national police (PNd’H) used tear gas to disperse protesters from Carrefour-Feuille, a Port-au-Prince suburb, who were demonstrating against insecurity.

Tuesday, 15 August 2023

MEXICO: Discovery of human remains raises concerns in Veracruz

On 14 August the attorney general’s office (FGE) in Mexico’s Veracruz state confirmed that the remains of multiple people had been found in two buildings in the city of Poza Rica, in the north of Veracruz.

Tuesday, 15 August 2023

CHILE: Key ministerial resignation fails to satisfy opposition

On 14 August Chile’s finance and labour ministers, Mario Marcel and Jeannette Jara respectively, embarked on a tour of 12 cities in the south of the country to promote the government’s tax and pension reforms.

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Workers at the Bilche-Volytsko Uherske facility, one of Ukraine’s gas-storage sites. ALONA NIKOLAIEVYCH/ZUMA PRESS

Vital Natural Gas Is Being Stashed in Caverns Beneath War-Torn Ukraine

Commodity merchants are pumping natural gas into Ukrainian reservoirs, hoping the war doesn’t disrupt potential profits

WSJ by Joe Wallace, updated Aug. 16, 2023 

A daredevil trade is in vogue among commodity merchants: Stashing natural gas in caverns beneath the surface of war-torn Ukraine.

The wager could reap hundreds of millions of dollars collectively for traders such as Trafigura Group, Vitol and Gunvor Group, people familiar with the matter said. Others looking to cash in include oil-and-gas giants such as Shell and utilities such as Switzerland’s Axpo.

Traders are getting paid to stockpile power-generation and heating fuel for Europe ahead of the second winter since Russia pitched the continent into an energy crisis. So much gas has flooded in from the rest of the world to replace Russian fuel that prices have fallen more than 80% over the past year. That will make the trade a lucrative one, if all goes well.

The danger isn’t that the gas itself goes up in smoke. It is housed nearly a mile underground in depleted gas reservoirs and aquifers, mostly away from the front line in the west of Ukraine. But traders’ winnings could evaporate if shells strike pipelines or compressor stations and trap the gas in the country.

Another risk is that “the government says ‘I have to confiscate the gas’” if Ukraine’s energy situation worsens, said Martin Pich, trading director at MND, a Czech energy company. “You are looking at the potential profit, versus the losses that you could face in these scenarios.”

Gas flows picked up speed in recent weeks into the Ukrainian caverns, by far the biggest storage sites in Europe. The gas comes from all over the world: some shipped as liquefied natural gas from the U.S. and Nigeria and into Europe’s pipeline network. Other batches arrive directly from massive fields in Norway and the U.K. There is even a remaining trickle of gas from Russia, some of it U-turning in Slovakia and heading back across the border into Ukraine.

Flows accelerated after a series of meetings between European traders and officials from state-owned Ukrainian energy companies. The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine gave a presentation in Vienna in mid-June showing that its pipeline network had spare capacity because of the drop in Russian gas since the invasion, said people briefed on the meeting.

As a result, the state company could redirect gas if any blockages occur, enabling traders to get it out of the country, said Chief Executive Dmytro Lyppa. “We are ready for any scenario,” he said.

Volumes flowing into storage are lower than before the war, reflecting the difficulty traders encountered in insuring fuel in a war zone or persuading banks to lend against it. The European Union has failed, so far, in an attempt to create a state-backed guarantee program. Ukrainian officials say foreign traders might store 3.5 billion cubic meters by winter, out of an available 10 billion.

That could prove to be a handy buffer, adding almost 4% to the EU’s storage capacity. Europe remains vulnerable, having swapped dependence on Russia’s Gazprom for reliance on the liquefied-natural gas market. Underlining that vulnerability, gas prices rocketed twice this month on the mere threat of a strike at gas plants in Australia.

Stowing fuel in Ukraine is a variation on a classic commodities trade. The play gained fame on Wall Street when Salomon Brothers made a bonanza by stashing crude on tankers on the eve of the First Gulf War in the early 1990s. It requires a big balance sheet, logistical intelligence and, in this instance, an appetite for risk.

It works like this: The EU’s gas stores are so close to brimming over that traders can buy fuel on the cheap now and sell at higher prices in the forward market, for delivery this winter or later.

Recently, they could earn more than 10 euros per megawatt-hour, said Marco Saalfrank, head of merchant trading at Axpo. That is after taking into account storage and transit fees, as well as interest rates and credit charges.

Shell signed a deal to explore shale gas in Ukraine in 2013. PHOTO: KRISZTIAN BOCSI/BLOOMBERG NEWS

Across 3.5 billion cubic meters, that adds up to more than 340 million euros, or $370 million, in potential profit. The actual figure will differ. Some traders are locking in sales for next summer instead of winter, or not selling forward at all, which amounts to a bet that prices will rise.

The companies involved mostly had extensive dealings in Ukraine before the war. Shell signed a deal to explore shale gas in the country in 2013.

London-based Vitol, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, struck a deal to develop oil-and-gas fields in Ukraine in 2012, while Swiss trader Trafigura had an office in Kyiv. The two traders—fierce competitors—are hunting for new ways to make money after earning billions of dollars in recent years from the upheaval caused by war and the pandemic.

Ukrtransgaz, the storage operator, has checked caverns for bugs, ordered extra patrols of perimeter fences and stocked up on spare parts, said Roman Maliutin, acting director general. The company treats all of the stores as if they were one giant cavern, guaranteeing traders access to fuel even if the site they originally injected it into is damaged.

“The probability that all our underground storages will be taken out of the production, will be destroyed, is very low,” Maliutin said.

The more gas in the depleted gas sites, the higher the pressure, easing the withdrawal of fuel to send back to Europe or burn in Ukraine this winter. Ukrtransgaz, a Naftogaz subsidiary, also gets much-needed cash from storage fees, though it has set them at low levels to encourage the influx. Ukraine also exempts the gas from customs duties for three years.

Inflows of gas from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova mark a reversal of Ukraine’s historic role as a thoroughfare for Russian gas to Europe. The caverns are a legacy of that trade route. Gazprom drew them down to top up exports to Europe in winter, allowing cities in eastern Ukraine to burn newly arrived Russian fuel from a clutch of arterial pipelines in the coldest months of the year.

“Traders are coming to Ukraine without additional insurance, actually bearing this risk as commercial risk, which is a great signal,” said Oleksiy Chernyshov, chief executive of state-owned Naftogaz. He added that Kyiv wouldn’t consider confiscating the fuel.

The caverns, he said, are “the safest place in Ukraine right now.”

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News Round-Up, August 15, 2023

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The Best in the Biz – August 10, 2023

Posted to Energy Centralin the Utility Management Group

EPA Plan Would Impose Drastic Cuts on Power Plant Emissions by 2040

German Toro Ghio

Link to original article: https://energycentral.com/c/ee/epa-plan-would-impose-drastic-cuts-power-plant-emissions-2040

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Editorial…

On the seemingly peaceful and serene day of July 28, 2011, the tranquil city of Oslo, renowned for its picturesque fjords, revered artist Edward Munch, and vibrant Vigeland Park, was struck by an unimaginable horror that no one could have anticipated. On this fateful day, the capital of Norway became the epicenter of deadly acts of terror: Oslo and Utøya Island fell victim to brutal attacks that shook the nation to its core.
The first blast targeted government offices, leaving behind devastation and despair. However, the horrors were far from over. During this chaos, Norway was about to witness an even more horrifying act. On the peaceful Utøya Island, a youth camp was abruptly transformed into a blood-soaked battleground. A lone gunman, chillingly disguised as a police officer, mercilessly opened fire on the unsuspecting camp attendees. Sixty-nine young individuals, filled with hopes and dreams, were ruthlessly torn away from their loved ones, forever etching their names into the darkest annals of Norwegian history.
Over the past few years, criminal activity has become a worldwide threat. The current statistics are alarming, with homicides taking the lives of almost half a million people globally. Surprisingly, this number is higher than the deaths caused by armed conflicts and terrorist attacks during the same period. Latin American criminal groups have played a crucial role in increasing crime rates in the region. These groups frequently operate with a twisted notion of loyalty, engaging in violent conflicts over territories to dominate and control lucrative illegal activities. Their influence goes beyond local communities, spreading into diverse aspects of society and perpetuating cycles of violence.
In Europe, the widespread availability of firearms worsens the hazards of criminal activities. As guns are easily accessible, criminals become more confident, increasing armed robberies, gang violence, and even terrorist attacks. Recognizing the urgency of addressing this crisis, the United Nations implemented the "Sustainable Development Goal 16" to decrease violence and associated deaths by 2030. Nonetheless, the current crime rate persists. Therefore, achieving the goal on time is likely.
A diverse approach is necessary to tackle crime and ensure community safety. Such an approach should involve investing in social programs that address the root causes of crime, encourage education and skills development, enable economic opportunities, and bolster international cooperation to dismantle transnational criminal networks.
On Sunday, this blog took to Twitter to share an article that has since taken the internet by storm. Entitled "Hemingway and the 'Gang' say: 'Farewell To The Arms...'," the story explores the incredible social project known as Project Alcatraz, driven by Santa Teresa Hacienda in Venezuela.
Responding to the escalating challenge of gang-related activities, the visionary minds of Santa Teresa Hacienda decided to establish Project Alcatraz. Little did they know that this decision would begin an extraordinary endeavor that would reshape lives and offer hope to countless individuals.
From its beginnings, Project Alcatraz has undergone notable transformations, blossoming into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to recruiting and rehabilitating individuals involved in criminal gangs. Multifaceted strategies have been used in this program to foster successful reintegration.
Today, we are thrilled to announce that the article has garnered close to 80,000 views and has received overwhelmingly positive feedback from readers. This level of engagement is a testament to the power of the story, resonating the well-done impact of Project Alcatraz.

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Most read…

Experts Scrutinize Hawaiian Electric as They Search for the Maui Wildfire Cause

The main utility serving Hawaii did not pre-emptively shut off power before high winds reached Maui, and power lines fell in the windstorm.

NYT by Peter Eavis, Ivan Penn and Thomas Fuller, Aug. 14, 2023

How (Many) Economists Missed the Big Disinflation

NYT by Paul Krugman, Opinion Columnist, August 14, 2023 

Far-Right Libertarian Wins Argentina’s Presidential Primary

Javier Milei, who wants to abolish the central bank and adopt the U.S. dollar as Argentina’s currency, is now the front-runner in the fall general election.

NYT by Jack Nicas, Natalie Alcoba and Lucía Cholakian Herrera, Reporting from Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires, Augus 14, 2023

Russia Raises Interest Rates to 12% After Ruble Plummets

The Moscow Time by Jake Cordell, 5 hours ago

Hemingway and the “gang” say: “Farewell To The Arms…

By GERMÁN & CO, August 13, 2023

Trump Indicted in Georgia for Election Interference Scheme Along With 18 Others

TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT AND ERIC CORTELLESSA, AUGUST 14, 2023 

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The AES Corporation is committed to accelerating the future of energy transitions by delivering greener and more innovative solutions. AES firmly believes that energy infrastructure plays a crucial role in ensuring the sustainability of our sector. Recently, the AES President and CEO, Andrés Gluski, had the privilege of moderating a captivating discussion titled "Harnessing Diplomacy for the Energy Transition and Universal Access" at the @EEI_Intl panel. This engaging conversation highlights the importance of collaboration and innovative approaches in driving the energy transition forward.

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In Lahaina and other towns in West Maui last week, downed power poles and lines littered the highway, blocking roads in some cases. Credit...Philip Cheung for The New York Times

Experts Scrutinize Hawaiian Electric as They Search for the Maui Wildfire Cause

The main utility serving Hawaii did not pre-emptively shut off power before high winds reached Maui, and power lines fell in the windstorm.

NYT by Peter Eavis, Ivan Penn and Thomas Fuller, Aug. 14, 2023

In the hunt to determine what caused the fire that consumed Lahaina, the focus has increasingly turned to Hawaii’s biggest power utility — and whether the company did enough to prevent a wildfire in the high winds that swept over Maui last week.

Lawyers for Lahaina residents suing the utility, Hawaiian Electric, contend that its power equipment was not strong enough to withstand strong winds, and that the company should have shut down power before the winds came. Wildfire experts who have studied the catastrophic fires in California over the past two decades also see shortcomings in Hawaiian Electric’s actions.

Nearly a week after the wildfire tore through the island town of Lahaina, state and local officials have not determined a cause for the blaze that killed at least 99 people. But the explosive conditions were similar to those elsewhere in the country where wildfires were sparked by electrical equipment: dry brush, high winds and aging infrastructure.

Many wildfires in the United States occur when poles owned by utilities or other structures carrying power lines are blown down, or when branches or other objects land on power lines and cause them to produce high-energy flashes of electricity that can start fires. That is why utilities in California and other states have at times shut down power in recent years before strong winds arrive.

The National Weather Service expected winds of up to 45 miles per hour last Tuesday, with gusts of 60 miles per hour — conditions that were amplified by Hurricane Dora, which traveled across the Pacific Ocean about 700 miles to the south.

“We allege that many of the regulatory laws that require maintenance of equipment were broken,” said James Frantz, chief executive of the Frantz Law Group, one of several law firms taking action against Hawaiian Electric. “There’s got to be some accountability.” He said his firm was representing five Lahaina residents who were filing lawsuits in a Hawaiian state court on Monday.

Nearly a week after the wildfire tore through Lahaina, state and local officials have not determined a cause for the blaze that killed at least 96 people. Credit...Max Whittaker for The New York Times

Shares in Hawaiian Electric lost over a third of their value on Monday, a sign that investors feared that the company would have to pay out large sums to settle lawsuits filed by homeowners and businesses, and spend enormous amounts to try to fireproof its operations.

“The issue becomes whether they did everything they could that was reasonable to prevent this incident,” said Shahriar Pourreza, an analyst who covers Hawaiian Electric’s stock for Guggenheim Securities. “Was there gross negligence, was there imprudence?”

Hawaiian Electric, established in 1891, operates on Maui through its subsidiary, Maui Electric, and is tiny compared with the Californian utilities that have paid huge wildfire settlements. Its revenue last year totaled $3.7 billion, compared with $21.7 billion at Pacific Gas and Electric of California. Like most other utilities, Hawaiian Electric operates under the scrutiny of public commissioners who have to approve its spending plans.

At a news conference on Monday, Shelee Kimura, the chief executive of Hawaiian Electric, said the company did not have a shut-off program and contended that cutting the power could have created problems for people using medical equipment that runs on electricity.

She also said turning off the power would have required coordination with emergency workers. “In Lahaina, the electricity powers the pumps that provide the water — and so that was also a critical need during that time,” Ms. Kimura said. “There are choices that need to be made — and all of those factors play into it.”

In Lahaina and other towns in West Maui last week, downed power poles and lines littered the highway, blocking roads in some cases. It was unclear how much of the equipment had been tossed over by the strong gusts of wind and how much of it was damaged by the fire.

Power lines have caused catastrophic wildfires in California in recent years, prompting lawsuits that have led to multibillion-dollar payouts by the state’s utilities. Pacific Gas and Electric filed for bankruptcy in 2019 and agreed to pay $13.5 billion to settle claims relating to destructive wildfires, including the Camp Fire, which destroyed the Northern California town of Paradise and killed 85 people.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Pacific Disaster Center, a firm based in Hawaii that provides disaster-related analysis, said on Saturday that more than 2,000 structures had been damaged or destroyed by the recent fires on Maui. And they estimated that it would cost $5.52 billion to rebuild. Mr. Pourreza, the analyst, said in a research note that there was a scenario in which Hawaiian Electric’s liability from the fire could exceed $4 billion. It had $314 million in cash at the end of June.

Pre-emptive power shutdowns are unpopular, because of how disruptive they can be to individuals and businesses. But wildfire experts say that they are a necessary measure, and, with planning, they can be deployed in such a way that they don’t prevent emergency services from operating during the blackout.

“It keeps people safe,” said Michael Wara, a scholar focused on climate and energy policy at Stanford University.

Lightning strikes have been another common source of ignition for wildfires in the Western United States. While not definitive, satellite-based lightning detectors operated by NASA did not indicate lightning activity on Hawaii last Monday or Tuesday.

Local and state officials have said little about what might have caused the fire that eventually engulfed Lahaina on the afternoon of Aug. 8. Earlier that day, Maui County said it had completely contained a small brush fire that was first reported that morning, but later announced at 4:45 p.m. that “an apparent flareup” had forced the closure of one main road and sudden evacuations.

Data from Whisker Labs, a private company that monitors the electrical grid in cities across the country looking for problems that might spark a home fire, appears to show significant faults — or major incidents — on power lines near where the Tuesday morning blaze is believed to have started.

On the night of Aug. 7 and into the early morning hours, its data showed, power lines began losing voltage, which can happen when vegetation interferes with wires, lines touch power poles or electrical equipment malfunctions.

The company said it had almost 1,000 sensors in Hawaii and about 70 on Maui. A major fault was felt by all sensors on the island, but was strongest near Lahaina, Whisker Labs found.

And it was a full eight seconds, “which is an eternity in electrical grid time,” said Bob Marshall, co-founder and chief executive of Whisker Labs, based in Germantown, Md. “Something on the grid was very unhappy for eight seconds and trying to recover from a shock.”

Hawaiian Electric, through Jim Kelly, a spokesman, declined to comment on Whisker Labs’ data and findings.

Ken Pimlott, the former chief of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said in an interview on Sunday that the notion that power lines might have started the fire was plausible.

He said the Maui fire recalled the 2017 Tubbs fire in California, which tore through wine country north of San Francisco. That fire was caused by private electrical equipment and quickly spread through communities lined up and down steep slopes. As was the case in West Maui, the Northern California community was on the edge of wild lands, making it more vulnerable.

Wildfire experts who have studied the catastrophic fires in California over the past two decades see shortcomings in Hawaiian Electric’s actions. Credit...Philip Cheung for The New York Times

Hawaii’s attorney general, Anne Lopez, said on Friday that she would be “conducting a comprehensive review of critical decision-making and standing policies leading up to, during, and after the wildfires on Maui and Hawaii islands.”

Mr. Wara, of Stanford, said Hawaiian Electric appeared to have ample time to shut down power. He noted that before the high winds hit, the company took the precaution of turning off reclosers, equipment designed to restart the flow of power after an outage.

Hawaiian Electric in a regulatory filing last year detailed measures aimed at reducing the risk of its equipment causing fires. Among other things, the filing said the company was “hardening” poles to withstand high winds and cutting back vegetation, noting that Lahaina was a priority area.

But such measures can take time to complete and be very expensive. Burying power lines costs $3 million to $5 million per mile, said Mr. Wara, who was a member of a California commission that advised lawmakers after the Camp Fire on how to hold utilities accountable for wildfire costs and risks. Typically, such costs are added to customers’ bills under regulatory rules — and Hawaii’s electricity rates are already by far the highest in the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Why did they not do the cheap thing — turn the power off?” Mr. Wara said.

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Credit...Illustration by Akshita Chandra/The New York Times; Photograph by Larry Washburn

How (Many) Economists Missed the Big Disinflation

NYT by Paul Krugman, Opinion Columnist, August 14, 2023 

In economics, as in life, it’s really important to learn from your mistakes. The learning process begins when you say the magic words “I was wrong,” which sets you free to ask why you were wrong and do better next time.

Those of us who failed to predict the big run-up of inflation in 2021-22 are, I think it’s fair to say, well along on that process. But it’s not clear to me that economists who had predicted that getting inflation under control — it’s down a lot, although not all the way — would require years of very high unemployment are engaging in a similar reckoning.

They should. In particular, they should ask themselves whether inflation pessimism was in part caused by a form of bias that has had negative effects on a lot of economic policymaking — not partisan bias, but the urge to sound serious by calling for hard choices and sacrifice.

Before I get to that, however, let me talk about what went wrong with so many recent economic predictions.

I’ve been looking at what you might call mainstream predictions about inflation and unemployment made late last year — economic projections by the Federal Reserve and by professional forecasters surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed. Perhaps surprisingly, both more or less correctly predicted the inflation decline we’re actually seeing.

The survey of forecasters predicted consumer inflation (excluding volatile food and energy prices) of 3.5 percent for the whole of 2023; given actual price increases so far this year, this would require inflation for the rest of the year to run at 2.7 percent, which seems quite reasonable given recent data. The Fed predicted that the core personal consumption expenditures deflator, a similar measure, would rise 3.5 percent over the course of the year; this will also come close if inflation for the rest of the year is 3 percent or less, which again seems reasonable.

Both forecasts, however, assumed that disinflation would require a substantial rise in unemployment. The professional forecasters predicted 4.4 percent unemployment by the fourth quarter, the Fed 4.6 percent. Since the actual unemployment rate in July was only 3.5 percent, to meet those predictions would require that the economy fall off a cliff starting just about now — and there are no signs that this is happening.

Yet most of the criticism I heard of the Fed and others berated them for excessive optimism. Getting inflation down, a chorus of economists insisted, would require much bigger increases in unemployment. Most famously, Larry Summers declared that we would need something like two years of 7.5 percent unemployment to get inflation down to 2 percent, but others offered broadly similar if less extreme diagnoses.

OK, we haven’t reached 2 percent yet (and it’s not clear that we even should), but surely we’ve seen enough to conclude that such claims were wildly off base. So, have the pessimists come to terms with that reality?

Well, I’m still seeing a lot of excuses — two, in particular.

I’m still seeing a lot of excuses — two, in particular. One is the claim that much of the progress against inflation is in some sense illusory, that underlying inflation is still well above 4 percent. Now, there are enough measures of underlying inflation out there that if you pick and choose you can still manage to be pessimistic, but the preponderance of the evidence — plus the results of hands-free algorithms that use a consistent procedure to extract the signal from the noise — suggests underlying inflation around 3 percent and dropping.

The other is the claim that disinflation pessimists were simply applying standard economic models, so that the fault lay in the models, not themselves.

But that’s simply not true. Standard models say that disinflation is very costly if persistent high inflation has become entrenched in expectations. And it was or should have been clear, even a year ago, that this wasn’t a good description of the current U.S. economy. That’s not 20/20 hindsight: I argued a year ago, at the peak of inflation pessimism, that analogies with the painful aftermath of the 1970s were all wrong. And I was, frankly, shocked to see smart economists blithely ignoring the obvious differences in circumstances.

Did I expect disinflation to come as painlessly as it has? No. Even inflation optimists clearly need to do some rethinking. But inflation pessimists really need to do what inflation optimists did a year ago, and ask how they got it so wrong, effectively calling for policies that would have put millions out of work.

As I said, it wasn’t partisanship; America’s right has become so divorced from empirical reality that it has played no role in this debate. What I do suspect, however, is that some very good economists got caught up in a version of the Very Serious People problem of the 2010s, in which the desire to seem hardheaded led many elite voices to obsess over budget deficits when they should have been focused on inadequate job creation.

The good news is that while the Fed did, in effect, try to engineer a recession to control inflation, it didn’t succeed: Despite rising interest rates, the economy just kept chugging along. Why that happened is another question. But pessimists really need to grapple with the fact that disinflation happened anyway.

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Just Exceptional...

“Words fail to capture the resplendent magnificence of this exquisite beverage. Its qualities transcend the boundaries of human expression, rendering it a true paragon of its kind. Indeed, it stands unequivocally among the most exceptional —-elixir—- concoctions ever produced…

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Source: Media

Far-Right Libertarian Wins Argentina’s Presidential Primary

Javier Milei, who wants to abolish the central bank and adopt the U.S. dollar as Argentina’s currency, is now the front-runner in the fall general election.

NYT by Jack Nicas, Natalie Alcoba and Lucía Cholakian Herrera, Reporting from Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires, Augus 14, 2023

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Who is “don” Javier Milei?

Javier Milei is undeniably a unique character in Argentine politics. Known for his distinctive sideburns, he closely resembles iconic figures in Argentina, such as Sandro, Leonardo Favio, Carlos Menem, and even Diego Armando Maradona. In other words, he is "a sympathetic and curious thing." It is important to note that these resemblances are physical and should not be misinterpreted as ideological or political.
Described by the media as a far-right politician, economist, and former TV personality, Javier Milei recently made waves by winning the most votes in Argentina's primary election. His self-proclaimed label as an anarcho-capitalist and his admiration for former US President Donald Trump have only added to his controversial image. Milei's victory, where he secured an impressive 30% of the votes and defeated more established politicians, has been referred to as a "political earthquake" by the Argentine media. This unexpected success highlights both the growing appeal of far-right ideologies in the country and the dissatisfaction of Argentine voters with traditional political parties.

However, it is important to examine Milei's ideology and political stance critically. While his triumph may have shocked the establishment, his alignment with the far-right raises questions about his policy proposals and potential consequences for social and economic issues in Argentina.
As Milei's influence continues to grow, it will be interesting to see how he navigates the complexities of Argentine politics and whether his ideas will resonate with a broader audience. The political landscape in Argentina appears to be shifting, and it remains to be seen how Milei's rise will impact the country's future.
Milei is known for his anti-establishment views and has launched scathing attacks on his rivals from established political parties. He has stated that if elected, he would abolish Argentina's central bank, replace the peso with the US dollar, and privatize state-run companies that are making a loss. Milei is also recognized for his provocative style and often berates "the left" using expletive-laden outbursts. He is frequently seen wearing his trademark leather jacket and sporting long sideburns.

By Germán & Co

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A far-right libertarian candidate won Argentina’s open presidential primary election on Sunday, a surprising showing for a politician who wants to adopt the U.S. dollar as Argentina’s official currency and embraces comparisons to Donald Trump.

Javier Milei, 52, a congressman, economist and former television pundit, secured 30 percent of the vote with 96 percent of the ballots counted, making him the front-runner for the presidency in the fall general election.

Polls had suggested that Mr. Milei’s support was at about 20 percent, and political analysts had predicted that his radical policy proposals — including abolishing the country’s central bank — would prevent him from attracting many more voters.

But the vote on Sunday made clear that Mr. Milei now has a clear shot at leading Argentina, a South American nation of 46 million with some of the world’s largest reserves of oil, gas and lithium.

“I think these results are surprising even to him,” said Pablo Touzon, an Argentine political consultant. “Up until now, he was a protest candidate.”

Argentina’s general election in October, which could go to a November runoff, will now become a new test of the strength of the far right around the world. Although hard-right forces have gained new influence in several powerful nations in recent years, including the United States, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden and Finland, they have also suffered some defeats, including in Spain and Brazil.

Mr. Milei has pitched himself as the radical change that the collapsing Argentine economy needs, and he could be a shock to the system if elected. Besides his ideas about the currency and the central bank, he has proposed drastically lowering taxes and cutting public spending, including by charging people to use the public health care system; closing or privatizing all state-owned enterprises; and eliminating the health, education and environment ministries.

Sergio Massa, Argentina’s center-left finance minister, finished second in the primary, with 21 percent of the vote. Patricia Bullrich, a conservative former security minister, finished in third place, with 17 percent.

The general election takes place on Oct. 22, but it appears likely that the race will be decided in a runoff vote on Nov. 19.

The Sunday results showed that Argentina’s three separate coalitions have similar levels of support, making it unlikely that any candidate will reach or exceed the 45-percent threshold necessary to win outright in the first round. (A candidate can also win outright by winning 40 percent of the vote with a margin of victory of at least 10 percentage points.)

The center-right coalition’s candidates received a combined 28 percent of the vote on Sunday, while the center-left coalition received 27 percent — both slightly less than Mr. Milei’s total.

The incumbent center-left party has held power in Argentina for 16 of the past 20 years and has been controlled largely by former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

“We’re not only going to end Kirchnerism, but we’re also going to end the useless, parasitic, criminal political caste that is sinking this country,” Mr. Milei told supporters in a speech on Sunday night. He then thanked his sister, who runs his campaign, and his five Mastiff dogs, each named after a conservative economist.

Argentina, which has weathered economic crises for decades, is in the midst of one of its worst. The Argentine peso has plummeted in value, annual inflation has surpassed 115 percent, nearly 40 percent of the population is impoverished and the country is struggling to repay its $44 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund.

Mr. Milei has said that his economic policies would represent an austerity package that goes beyond even what the I.M.F. is requesting of Argentina.

He could also have a profound effect on other parts of Argentine society. He and his running mate, a lawyer who has defended the country’s past military dictatorship, have suggested they would loosen gun laws, reverse recent policies allowing abortion and even permit the sale of human organs, an example of commerce that Mr. Milei says the government has no business restricting.

Yet implementing such changes would lead to a major challenge. Sunday’s results suggested that Mr. Milei, if elected, would have limited direct support in Congress. His party, called Liberty Advances, said it would control just 8 of the 72 seats in the Senate and 35 of the 257 seats in the House, according to the results for its other candidates.

Supporters of Mr. Milei in Buenos Aires on Sunday. His outsider status and radical economic proposals appealed to more voters than analysts had expected.Credit...Mario De Fina/Associated Press

Mr. Touzon said Mr. Milei would have less institutional support than far-right candidates who were swept into office elsewhere in recent years, including Mr. Trump and former President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil. “Bolsonaro leaned on the army. Trump had the Republican Party. Milei has nothing,” he said.

He added that Mr. Milei’s economic plan, while radical, is lacking in details and has been revised frequently. “His dollarization plan was changed 50 times,” Mr. Touzon said. “Today, he does not have a team to govern Argentina.”

Yet Mr. Milei has proved to be a skilled politician in the internet age, with a trademark scowl and head of unruly hair that have given him a larger-than-life persona and made him an easy subject of internet memes, much like Mr. Trump and Mr. Bolsonaro.

In a public video posted online ahead of the vote, Mr. Bolsonaro endorsed Mr. Milei and said they were political kindred spirits. “We have a lot of things in common,” he said, citing what he called their support for private property, freedom of expression, the free market and the right to self-defense.

And not unlike supporters of Mr. Trump and Mr. Bolsonaro, Argentines who voted for Mr. Milei said on Sunday that they liked him because he was a political outsider who would shake up a broken system and tell it like it is.

“The Argentine people have finally woken up,” said Rebeca Di Iorio, 44, an administrative worker celebrating at Mr. Milei’s election-night street party in Buenos Aires. “Argentina needs that. It needs a change.”

Santiago Manoukian, research chief of Ecolatina, an Argentine economic consulting firm, said that of the different scenarios for primary results that analysts had mapped out, Mr. Milei’s victory was the least expected.

Now Mr. Manoukian said he would have to rethink his predictions of the election, as Mr. Milei has a clear chance to reach the second round, which then could be a tossup.

“He was not seen as a competitive candidate for a runoff,” Mr. Manoukian said. “Now something very different is happening.”

An earlier version of this article misstated the number of seats in Argentina’s lower house of Congress. It has 257 seats, not 500.

An earlier version of this article misidentified how a candidate could win the election outright and avoid a runoff. A candidate needs either 45 percent of the vote, or 40 percent and a margin of victory of at least 10 percentage points, not 50 percent of the vote.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina.Alexander Koryakov / Kommersant

Russia Raises Interest Rates to 12% After Ruble Plummets

The Moscow Time by Jake Cordell, 5 hours ago

Russia’s Central Bank hiked interest rates from 8.5% to 12% on Tuesday in an emergency meeting after the ruble slid past 100 against the U.S. dollar the day before.

“The decision is aimed at limiting price stability risks,” the Bank said in a statement.

The ruble gained strongly ahead of the decision, rising by more than 2% to around 95 against the U.S. dollar, before paring gains to fall back below 98 after the rate hike was announced, Moscow Exchange data showed.

It was the first extraordinary meeting of the Bank’s board of directors since Feb. 28, 2022, when the regulator raised interest rates to 20% in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine just days earlier.

Kremlin Unfazed as Ruble Crashes Through 100 vs. Dollar

A devaluation in the Russian currency has gathered pace in recent weeks, triggering concerns it could set off an inflationary spiral and panic in Russia’s domestic financial markets.

In its statement, the Bank said surging demand at home — which includes a rapid increase in state spending on the war in Ukraine — was causing the economy to overheat.

“Steady growth in domestic demand surpassing the capacity to expand output amplifies the underlying inflationary pressure and has an impact on the ruble’s exchange rate dynamics,” it said.

Ahead of the move, analysts at Alfa Bank said a key rate of around 12% could help stabilize the currency.

“Perhaps with the help of a rate increase, the Central Bank expects to slow down domestic demand and reduce imports. But this will only have an indirect effect on the ruble exchange rate,” they wrote in a research note.

A fall in Russia’s export sales, a recovery in imports and surging government spending to help fund the invasion of Ukraine have all contributed to a weakening ruble and rising inflation, analysts say. The Central Bank itself has been warning of inflationary pressures for almost a year, following Russia's mobilization of some 300,000 reservists in September. 

Inflation is currently running at 4.4%, the bank said in its statement — above its official 4% target — and is set to accelerate toward 6.5% by the end of this year, according to official forecasts. Other measures of price rises, including core inflation and seasonally-adjusted inflation were running above 7%, the central bank said on Tuesday.

“The pass-through of the ruble’s depreciation to prices is gaining momentum and inflation expectations are on the rise,” it said in a statement, adding there were “substantial” risks that inflation would not be brought back down to 4% until after 2024.

Tuesday’s hike came after Maxim Oreshkin, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, publicly called for higher borrowing costs to address the ruble’s woes, in a rare criticism of the regulator’s policy from the Kremlin. 

Central Bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, previously an economic advisor to Putin, is seen in Moscow as an astute operator who has been instrumental in helping Russia’s economy weather a barrage of Western sanctions and the economic fallout of the war.

Analysts say the falling ruble is both a blessing and a curse for the Kremlin. 

A weaker currency increases Russia’s revenue from energy sales, which are priced in dollars, helping offset lost income from lower exports. The price in rubles for a barrel of Russia’s Urals oil has more than doubled since the start of the year. 

However, it could also trigger financial panic and inflation at home, by pushing up prices for goods that use imported parts and even for some domestically-produced agricultural products, where the price is dictated by international markets. 

Last week a state TV presenter, Vladimir Solovyov, slammed the Central Bank on a broadcast of his online show, calling on Nabiullina to halt the slide in the ruble ahead of the upcoming presidential election, scheduled for March 2024. Putin is certain to win the race, which independent observers and rights groups say will be neither free nor fair, but the Kremlin would prefer not to have Russians head to the polls against the backdrop of an economic crisis. 

Russia’s economy has become increasingly militarized in the 18 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, with a massive ramp-up in arms production and payments to soldiers offsetting a sharp drop in retail sales, foreign investment and energy exports.

Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Image by Germán & Co

Hemingway and the “gang” say: “Farewell To The Arms…

By GERMÁN & CO, August 13, 2023

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Project "Alcatraz": A Comprehensive Initiative for Gang Rehabilitation and Reintegration by Santa Teresa...

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“If you treat an individual as he is, he will remain how he is. But if you treat him as if he were what he ought to be and could be, he will become what he ought to be and could be.”

―JOHANN WOLFGANG VON GOETHE

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It is the cruelest reality imaginable...

Criminal activity has become a worldwide threat recently. The current statistics are alarming, with homicides taking the lives of almost half a million people globally. Surprisingly, this number is higher than the sum of deaths caused by armed conflicts and terrorist attacks during the same period.

To deal with the problem effectively, it's crucial to comprehend the intricate relationships between Latin American gangs, the widespread availability of firearms in Europe, and the extent of organized crime. Latin American criminal groups have played a crucial role in the increase of crime rates in the region. These groups frequently operate with a twisted notion of loyalty, engaging in violent conflicts over territories to dominate and control lucrative illegal activities. Their influence goes beyond local communities, spreading into diverse aspects of society and perpetuating cycles of violence.

In Europe, the widespread availability of firearms worsens the hazards of criminal activities. As guns are easily accessible, criminals become more confident, leading to an increase in armed robberies, gang violence, and even terror attacks. Recognizing the urgency of addressing this crisis, the United Nations implemented “Sustainable Development Goal 16”, which aims to decrease violence and associated deaths by 2030. Nonetheless, the current crime rate persists. Therefore, achieving the goal on time is likely.

To effectively tackle crime and ensure community safety, a diverse approach is necessary. Such an approach ought to involve investing in social programs that address the root causes of crime, encourage education and skills development, enable economic opportunities, and bolster international cooperation to dismantle transnational criminal networks.

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A déjà vu of goodness…

On a chilly autumn evening, the “Spirit of Good Hope” entered a bustling café on Rue de l'Abreuvoir in Paris. It seemed familiar. The Spirit felt like he had been there before; he enjoyed the cozy ambiance and was captivated by the café's charm. The air was filled with the aroma of freshly brewed coffee, mingling with the gentle buzz of conversation permeating the room. It wasn't fleeting, though. It was a positive repetition that set the tone for the evening. The Spirit felt a profound sense of hope, as if tonight was different from other nights. Approaching the counter, he had a smile spread across his face. He said to the barista, "Un café au lait avec du rhum Santa Teresa, s'il vous plaît," with a hint of excitement in his voice. He ordered this drink every time. It was ideal for this time of year when the weather was cold. In the dimly lit café, a poignant scene unfolded, reflecting the intense emotions of this extraordinary gathering. Ernest Hemingway filled the room with his gray beard, exuding rugged charm. Surrounding him, the young "gang" members held court, their faces bearing tattoos and scars from their struggles and battles fought on the unforgiving city streets.

The conversation drifted through the smoky haze, blending past and present and forging an unexpected connection between two contrasting worlds.  Hemingway acknowledged the profound impact guns have had on gang members.  In the weathered writer, these resilient individuals discovered a kindred spirit who understood their conflicting natures.  The gang's weapons were a source of power and control in a world constantly challenging their lives.  These weapons gave them a semblance of strength and protection through their tumultuous existence.  But beneath the surface, guilt seethed—an undeniable truth they could not escape. The countless lives lost in the crossfire haunted their consciences, leaving scars that would never fully fade.  Hemingway, too, understood the weight of guns on the human soul.  Through his experiences as a soldier first and a writer afterwards, he witnessed the devastating effects of war.  The weapons that once filled his hands had penetrated the depths of his being, leaving scars that time would never heal.  He carried the ghosts of those he had lost, constantly reminding him of the devastating toll of violence.  

As they talked, an unspoken understanding began to develop. Despite the differences that separated them, Hemingway and the gang members found common ground in the profound impact that guns had on their lives. Through their shared experiences, they formed an unlikely bond, providing a moment of relief from the adversity molded by the destructive forces of the past. They yearned to break free from the chains that held them captive. And so, on that fateful night, they conceived a noble path - the Alcatraz Project - with the audacious purpose of bidding farewell to the arms.

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Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…

The teachings and spirituality of Saint Teresa of Avila, a nun renowned for her devotion to praying for the most vulnerable, have had a profound influence on the Wollmer family, who own Hacienda Santa Teresa in the Aragua Valley, a key region in Venezuela's sugar industry. The family, deeply moved by her teachings and spiritual beliefs, embraced the principles that would later be recognized as corporate social responsibility, long before it became a popular trend.

Hacienda Santa Teresa is the home of "Santa Teresa," Venezuela's oldest rum brand, with a rich history dating back to 1796. Originally focused on cultivating coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane, the hacienda ventured into rum production in 1830 and has persevered through numerous challenges, including wars, revolutions, dictators, and even the ongoing pandemic. Although the company produces various rum, only one, the "Santa Teresa 1796 Solera Rum," is designated for exportation. This particular expression was introduced in 1996 to commemorate the bicentennial of the hacienda and is managed internationally by Bacardi Ltd.

Through their commitment to Saint Teresa's teachings and spiritual values, the Wollmer family has nurtured a brand that embodies tradition, resilience, and respect for its community and the environment. Hacienda Santa Teresa's enduring legacy as a producer of exceptional rum highlights the family's dedication to their craft and their unwavering belief in the principles that were inspired by Saint Teresa herself.

The brand has a long history of community involvement. The organization's most renowned endeavour is the ongoing Project “Alcatraz”. In 2003, a criminal gang unlawfully entered the Hacienda premises and launched a surprise attack on a security guard. When apprehended, the perpetrators were presented with an unconventional option:

“Either surrender to the authorities or engage in labour at the Hacienda to restate their transgression…

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Project "Alcatraz"…

In response to the ever-growing challenge of gang-related activities, the offer to establish Project "Alcatraz" was accepted, marking the beginning of a remarkable endeavor. Since its inception, Project "Alcatraz" has evolved into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to the recruitment and rehabilitation of individuals involved in criminal gangs.

Drawing upon a multi-faceted approach, this program employs a range of strategies to foster the reintegration of these individuals into society. One core aspect of Project "Alcatraz" is vocational training, equipping participants with essential skills and expertise necessary for employment and self-sustainability. Moreover, value formation plays a key role in instilling a sense of moral compass and social responsibility.

Recognizing the importance of addressing underlying psychological issues, Project "Alcatraz" also provides psychological counseling to its participants. By addressing the root causes of their involvement with criminal gangs, this counseling plays a pivotal role in guiding them towards positive and productive paths.

Formal education is another vital component of the program. Through academic pursuits, participants have the opportunity to expand their knowledge and develop a solid foundation for future success. By fostering intellectual growth, Project "Alcatraz" helps break the cycle of criminal activity and opens doors to new possibilities.

An unexpected aspect of the rehabilitation process embraced by Project "Alcatraz" is the involvement of its participants in the sport of rugby. Beyond its physical benefits, rugby serves as a powerful tool for instilling discipline, teamwork, and self-esteem. This sport offers a unique opportunity for personal development and camaraderie, contributing to the overall success of the program.

Since its establishment, Project "Alcatraz" has witnessed the participation of numerous young people aiming to leave behind a life of crime. Through its far-reaching initiatives, the program has successfully reintegrated many individuals into society, providing them with a chance for a fresh start. The unwavering commitment and dedication of the Project "Alcatraz" team have paved the way for transformation and hope in the lives of those previously trapped in a cycle of gang-related activities.

Looking forward, as Project "Alcatraz" continues to grow and evolve, it serves as a beacon of progress and renewal in the realm of gang rehabilitation. With its holistic approach and undeniable impact, this initiative stands as a testament to the power of compassion, perseverance, and the belief in the potential for redemption in every individual.

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IMAGE BY GERMAN & Co

Trump Indicted in Georgia for Election Interference Scheme Along With 18 Others

TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT AND ERIC CORTELLESSA, AUGUST 14, 2023 

Agrand jury in Georgia voted to indict Donald Trump on Monday, along with more than a dozen of his allies, for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state, marking the fourth criminal case leveled against the former President this year and the second related to his efforts to stay in power.

Fani Willis, the Fulton County District Attorney, charged Trump with 13 counts, including violating state racketeering laws and soliciting a public official to violate his oath of office, conspiring to commit forgery in the first degree, conspiring to file false documents, and making false statements.

"Trump and the other Defendants charged in this indictment refused to accept that Trump lost, and they knowingly and willfully joined a conspiracy to unlawfully change the outcome of the election in favor of Trump," the indictment reads.

The sweeping charges in Georgia are almost certain to add to Trump’s already packed court schedule and increase his legal bills as he aims to win the GOP presidential nomination and reclaim the White House.

Special Counsel Jack Smith indicted Trump earlier this month on four federal charges, including knowingly spreading lies about election malfeasance, defrauding the U.S. government by orchestrating a scheme to present fake electors to the Electoral College, and engaging in a conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, which culminated with his supporters violently storming the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Smith is separately prosecuting Trump for mishandling classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, in a case set to go to trial in May. At the same time, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is set to take Trump to trial in March on 34 counts of falsifying business records.

Several of Trump’s rivals for the GOP presidential nomination have said they would pardon him if elected. Trump has also routinely claimed that a president can pardon himself. But the latest charges out of Georgia present a unique danger to Trump’s future freedom. Notably, no president could grant Trump clemency in the Georgia and New York cases, as presidential pardon power only applies to federal charges. In Georgia, only an independent state board enjoys pardon authority.

The Fulton Country indictment is focused on five main areas of legal impropriety, including the deliberate dissemination of election fraud falsehoods by Trump allies to manipulate the Georgia legislature; Trump’s efforts to intimidate state officials, including Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, to overturn Biden’s victory; the breach of voting data in Georgia’s rural Coffee County; the targeted abuse and harassment of state election workers; and the orchestrated attempt to send alternate electors slates to Congress to undermine the will of the voters.

Willis didn’t stop with Trump. A number of his closest associates were also charged under Georgia’s anti-racketeering law for conspiring to nullify the election, including Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor who was Trump’s personal attorney at the time; former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows; attorneys John Eastman and Kenneth Cheseboro, both of whom devised a scheme to send alternate Trump electors to the Electoral College; and other lawyers in Trump’s orbit who pushed wild or legally dubious theories for how to reverse the election outcome, such as Sidney Powell and Jenna Ellis. A handful of Georgia-based Trump attorneys and advisers were also included in the indictment.

All in all, the historic indictment brought a grand total of 41 charges against 19 people. They collectively face a gamut of different charges but are all being prosecuted under the Georgia Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, what are known in legal parlance as RICO Statues, which have typically been used to prosecute members of the mob.

In a statement Monday night, Trump’s campaign dismissed the new indictments as a partisan attempt to kneecap his 2024 campaign. “Ripping a page from Crooked Joe Biden’s playbook, Willis has strategically stalled her investigation to try and maximally interfere with the 2024 presidential race and damage the dominant Trump campaign,” it said. “All of these corrupt Democrat attempts will fail."

The campaign’s comments were less vituperative than Trump’s own attacks on Willis, who he has called a “racist” and “Phoney Fani” and has baselessly accused of having an affair with a gang member she once prosecuted, a claim that Willis has denied and has since been debunked.

Trump has strenuously fought to stop Willis’s case in its tracks. In July, he filed and lost a petition to the Georgia State Supreme Court to bar Willis from prosecuting him. The request, if granted, would have also forced the investigative special grand jury that met last year to toss out the final report. 

The Georgia case will test just how far someone with outsized political power can influence the election process. Trump is being prosecuted under more than a dozen charges  to use his weight as president to illegally change the vote tallies and send fake electors to Washington to alter the election result.

The Willis investigation into Trump dates back to early 2021, shortly after The Washington Post reported on a Jan. 2, 2021 phone call in which Trump asked Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a fellow Republican, to "find" 11,780 votes—one more than the number he lost by in the decisive swing state. Raffensperger refused. At that point, Georgia officials had already counted the votes three times, won multiple lawsuits over the outcome, and debunked extravagant fraud claims from Trump's team. At each turn, Biden’s victory was confirmed irrefutably. Trump has said he did nothing wrong, calling the phone was “perfect” 

But while many legal analysts have characterized the leaked conversation as something of a smoking gun, Willis has presented a much broader case, as her investigators have examined an extensive and multi-faceted effort by Trump to exert political muscle and disseminate brazen lies to remain in office despite the will of the voters. 

Trump’s allies, including Rudy Giuliani, harassed election workers and propagated patently false claims of a rigged election. On Dec. 14, 2020, the same day Biden’s electors were confirmed, a group of 16 fake electors met separately at the state capitol building to sign a false certificate stating that Trump had won the election. 

A separate grand jury investigated the matter last year, and concluded that some witnesses may have lied under oath, recommending indictments in the case, according to its own report, portions of which a Georgia judge released earlier this year. The grand jury in that probe also unanimously found that “no widespread fraud took place in the Georgia 2020 presidential election that could result in overturning the election.”

Willis’s prosecution against Trump may not only increase his criminal vulnerability liability. It could also provide a road map for other jurisdictions to pursue election interference charges. Special Counsel Smith’s indictment alleges that Trump tried to influence the outcome in Georgia as well as six other states. “It certainly raises the question of whether or not there are going to be investigations in those states and potentially, if there are, if those investigations will lead to further indictments,” says Richard Serafini, a former federal prosecutor.

The more cases Trump faces, the harder it will be for him to maneuver his way out of the justice system’s grip. Some of his most famous tactics—from lying to intimidating potential foes—are more likely to yield far more severe consequences in a court of law than in the political arena. And with the Georgia charges, unlike the federal cases, he can’t hope to win the 2024 election and grant himself a pardon or appoint an attorney general who will squash the matter altogether. It’s why it may be the indictment that scares him the most.

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News Round-up, August 14, 2023

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The Best in the Biz – August 10, 2023

Posted to Energy Centralin the Utility Management Group

EPA Plan Would Impose Drastic Cuts on Power Plant Emissions by 2040

German Toro Ghio

Link to original article: https://energycentral.com/c/ee/epa-plan-would-impose-drastic-cuts-power-plant-emissions-2040

The Biden administration is preparing to unveil a proposal to require power plants to drastically reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions by 2040, another attempt to regulate one of the country’s biggest contributors to climate change after the Supreme Court struck down the first effort, according to three people familiar with the plans.

I want to express my deepest gratitude to Matt Chester for his immense support, but my appreciation does not end with Matt. I also extend my thanks to everyone of you who has supported me. Your support has made all the difference, and I am forever grateful.

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Most read…

The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think

The United States is pivoting away from fossil fuels and toward wind, solar and other renewable energy, even in areas dominated by the oil and gas industries.

NYT,  David Gelles reported from Tulsa, Okla.; Brad Plumer and Jim Tankersley from Washington; and Jack Ewing from New York to see how an accelerated energy transition is playing out. Photographs by Mason Trinca, August 13, 2023

Electric Vehicle Myths

Electric Vehicles: Will they save or destroy us?

Source: https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths#Myth1

The Economic Losers in the New World Order

Giant subsidies and rising protectionism are upending decades of free trade. Smaller countries, from the U.K. to Singapore, are getting left behind.

WSJ by Ed Ballard, Jason Douglas,  and Jon Emont, August 14, 2023 The Economic Losers in the New World Order

Opinion: In Iowa, Mike Pence delivers a powerful message against Trump

TWP by Karen Tumulty, Deputy opinion editor and columnist, August 13, 2023 

The hunt for Russia’s secret ships

Turkey’s strategic straits are a trade superhighway — and a lifeline for the Kremlin’s war machine.

POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, AUGUST 14, 2023

Oil Firms Face Hard Choices After a Year of Big Spending

The industry’s wartime windfall is dwindling

TWSJ by David Uberti, August 14, 2023

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The AES Corporation is committed to accelerating the future of energy transitions by delivering greener and more innovative solutions. AES firmly believes that energy infrastructure plays a crucial role in ensuring the sustainability of our sector. Recently, the AES President and CEO, Andrés Gluski, had the privilege of moderating a captivating discussion titled "Harnessing Diplomacy for the Energy Transition and Universal Access" at the @EEI_Intl panel. This engaging conversation highlights the importance of collaboration and innovative approaches in driving the energy transition forward.

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A big shift in the way America produces energy is already underway.

The Clean Energy Future Is Arriving Faster Than You Think

The United States is pivoting away from fossil fuels and toward wind, solar and other renewable energy, even in areas dominated by the oil and gas industries.

NYT,  David Gelles reported from Tulsa, Okla.; Brad Plumer and Jim Tankersley from Washington; and Jack Ewing from New York to see how an accelerated energy transition is playing out. Photographs by Mason Trinca, August 13, 2023

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This is the first article in a three-part series examining the speed, challenges and politics of the American economy moving toward clean energy.

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Delivery vans in Pittsburgh. Buses in Milwaukee. Cranes loading freight at the Port of Los Angeles. Every municipal building in Houston. All are powered by electricity derived from the sun, wind or other sources of clean energy.

Across the country, a profound shift is taking place that is nearly invisible to most Americans. The nation that burned coal, oil and gas for more than a century to become the richest economy on the planet, as well as historically the most polluting, is rapidly shifting away from fossil fuels.

A similar energy transition is already well underway in Europe and elsewhere. But the United States is catching up, and globally, change is happening at a pace that is surprising even the experts who track it closely.

Wind and solar power are breaking records, and renewables are now expected to overtake coal by 2025 as the world’s largest source of electricity. Automakers have made electric vehicles central to their business strategies and are openly talking about an expiration date on the internal combustion engine. Heating, cooling, cooking and some manufacturing are going electric.

As the planet registers the highest temperatures on record, rising in some places to levels incompatible with human life, governments around the world are pouring trillions of dollars into clean energy to cut the carbon pollution that is broiling the planet.

The cost of generating electricity from the sun and wind is falling fast and in many areas is now cheaper than gas, oil or coal. Private investment is flooding into companies that are jockeying for advantage in emerging green industries.

“We look at energy data on a daily basis, and it’s astonishing what’s happening,” said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency. “Clean energy is moving faster than many people think, and it’s become turbocharged lately.”

More than $1.7 trillion worldwide is expected to be invested in technologies such as wind, solar power, electric vehicles and batteries globally this year, according to the I.E.A., compared with just over $1 trillion in fossil fuels. That is by far the most ever spent on clean energy in a year.

Those investments are driving explosive growth. China, which already leads the world in the sheer amount of electricity produced by wind and solar power, is expected to double its capacity by 2025, five years ahead of schedule. In Britain, roughly one-third of electricity is generated by wind, solar and hydropower. And in the United States, 23 percent of electricity is expected to come from renewable sources this year, up 10 percentage points from a decade ago.

“The nature of these exponential curves sometimes causes us to underestimate how quickly changes occur once they reach these inflection points and begin accelerating,” said former Vice President Al Gore, who called attention to what he termed a “planetary crisis” 17 years ago in his film “An Inconvenient Truth.” “The trend is definitely in favor of more and more renewable energy and less fossil energy.”

Even as the pace of change in the United States is surprising everyone from energy experts to automobile executives, fossil fuels still dominate energy production at home and abroad.

Corporations are building new coal mines, oil rigs and gas pipelines. The government continues to award leases for drilling projects on public lands and in federal waters and still subsidizes the industries. After posting record profits last year, leading oil companies are backing away from recent promises         to invest more heavily in renewable energy.

The scale of change required to remake the systems that power the United States — all the infrastructure that needs to be removed, re-engineered and replaced — is mind-boggling. There are major challenges involved in adding large amounts of renewable energy to antiquated electric grids and mining enough minerals for clean technologies. Some politicians, including most Republicans, want the country to continue burning fossil fuels, even in the face of overwhelming scientific consensus that their use is endangering life on the planet. Dozens of conservative groups organized by the Heritage Foundation have created a policy playbook, should a Republican win the 2024 presidential election, that would reverse course on lowering emissions. It would shred regulations designed to curb greenhouse gases, dismantle nearly every federal clean energy program and boost the production of fossil fuels.

And while energy systems are changing fast, so is the climate. It is far from certain whether the United States and other polluting countries will do what scientists say is required to avert catastrophe: stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere by 2050. All of the investment so far has slowed the pace at which emissions are growing worldwide, but the amount of carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere is at record levels.

And yet, from Beijing to London, Tokyo to Washington, Oslo to Dubai, the energy transition is undeniably racing ahead. Change is here, even in oil country.

‘Energy Is Energy’

As the workday begins in Tulsa, Okla., the assembly line at the electric school bus factory rattles to life. Crews fan out across the city to install solar panels on century-old Tudor homes. Teslas and Ford F-150 Lightnings pull up to charging stations powered in part by the country’s second-largest wind farm. And at the University of Tulsa’s School of Petroleum Engineering, faculty are working on ways to use hydrogen as a clean energy source.

Tulsa, a former boomtown once known as the “Oil Capital of the World” where the minor league baseball team is the Drillers, is immersed in a new energy revolution.

At the port, an Italian company, Enel, is building a $1 billion solar panel factory. The bus factory is operated by Navistar, one of the biggest commercial vehicle makers in the world. And the city’s main electric utility, Public Service Company of Oklahoma, now harvests more than 28 percent of its power from wind.

Clean energy entrepreneurs are flocking to Oklahoma, too. Francis Energy, a fast-growing maker of electric vehicle charging stations, is based in Tulsa. Canoo, an electric vehicle start-up, is building a 100,000-square-foot battery factory at a nearby industrial park and a manufacturing plant for its trucks in Oklahoma City, though there are questions about whether the company will have enough funding to realize its plans. And teams from Solar Power of Oklahoma are busy fastening photovoltaic panels to the roofs of homes and businesses around Tulsa.

The city is embracing its shifting identity.

“We have a tremendous sense of pride in our history,” said Dewey F. Bartlett Jr., the Republican former mayor of Tulsa who was an oil and gas executive but now helps recruit clean energy companies to the region. “But we also understand that energy is energy, whether it is generated by wind, steam or whatever it might be.”

Around the country, clean energy is taking root in unlikely locales.

Houston, home to more than 500 oil and gas companies, also has more than 130 solar- and wind-related companies. Some of the country’s largest wind and solar farms are in the Texas flatlands outside the city, and a huge wind farm has been proposed off the coast of Galveston.

In Arkansas, a planned solar farm — the state’s biggest — is expected to help power a nearby U.S. Steel factory that is undergoing a $3 billion upgrade. When complete, the plant will use electric furnaces to mold scrap steel into new products. That will result in about 80 percent less greenhouse gases, the company says, and set the pace for an industry that has been a major polluter.

About two-thirds of the new investment in clean energy is in Republican-controlled states, where policymakers have historically resisted renewables. But with each passing month, the politics seem to matter less than the economics.

“We’re the reddest state in the country, and we’re an oil and gas state,” said J.W. Peters, president of Solar Power of Oklahoma. “So it took a lot of time to convince people that this wasn’t snake oil.”

Mr. Peters was broke six years ago, with less than $400 in his checking account after his contracting business slowed down. Then he responded to a help-wanted ad looking for workers to install solar panels, which were becoming more popular in Tulsa. He now employs 61 workers and has $18 million in annual sales. “The environmental benefits are nice,” he said, “but most people are doing this for the financial opportunity.”

‘Something Very Dramatic’

Fifteen years ago, solar panels, wind turbines and battery-powered vehicles were widely viewed as niche technologies, too expensive and unreliable for mainstream use.

But clean energy became cheap far faster than anyone expected. Since 2009, the cost of solar power has plunged by 83 percent, while the cost of producing wind power has fallen by more than half. The price of lithium-ion battery cells fell 97 percent over the past three decades.

Today, solar and wind power are the least expensive new sources of electricity in many markets, generating 12 percent of global electricity and rising. This year, for the first time, global investors are expected to pour more money into solar power — some $380 billion — than into drilling for oil.

The rapid drop in costs for solar energy, wind power and batteries can be traced to early government investment and steady improvements over time by hundreds of researchers, engineers and entrepreneurs around the world.

Source: Lazard. Notes: Charts reflect the mean levelized cost of energy, which captures the price of building and running new power plants but excludes other electrical system costs. Lazard did not release data for 2022. In 2023, costs rose because of supply-chain problems, inflation and other issues.

“The world has produced nearly three billion solar panels at this point, and every one of those has been an opportunity for people to try to improve the process,” said Gregory Nemet, a solar power expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “And all of those incremental improvements add up to something very dramatic.”

An equally potent force, along with the technological advances, has been an influx of money — in particular, a gusher since 2020 of government subsidies.

In the United States, President Biden signed a trio of laws during his first two years in office that allocated unprecedented funds for clean energy: A $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law provided money to enhance the power grid, buy electric buses for schools and build a national network of electric vehicle chargers. The bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act set aside billions of dollars for semiconductors vital to car manufacturing. And the Inflation Reduction Act, which marks its first anniversary on Aug. 16, is by far the most ambitious attempt to fight climate change in American history.

The United States is ramping up its capacity to produce electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and wind turbines.

That landmark law provided tax breaks related to electric vehicles, heat pumps and energy efficiency upgrades, solar panel and wind turbine manufacturing and clean hydrogen production. The government is also investing in efforts to capture carbon emissions and store them before they can reach the atmosphere, as well as technology that can remove them directly from the air.

Originally estimated to cost roughly $391 billion between 2022 and 2031, the tax breaks are proving so popular with manufacturers and consumers that estimates now put the cost as high as $1.2 trillion over the next decade.

Combined, the three laws have prompted companies to announce at least $230 billion in manufacturing investments so far. In Georgia, a Korean solar manufacturer, Qcells, is building a $2.5 billion plant. In Nevada, Tesla is building a new $3.6 billion electric truck factory. And in Oklahoma, the Enel and Canoo facilities are primed to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act, as is a new $4.4 billion battery factory being considered by Panasonic, the Japanese conglomerate.

“There’s a lot of appetite to invest in the United States thanks to that law,” said Giovanni Bertolino, an executive at Enel, adding that the plant his company is building in Tulsa would not exist without the Inflation Reduction Act.

Regulations are also hastening the energy transition. Mr. Biden has proposed tough new federal pollution limits on tailpipes and smokestacks, but several states are acting on their own. California, with market muscle that influences the entire auto industry, plans to halt sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035 and new diesel-powered trucks by 2036 — and a handful of states are following suit. In May, New York became the first state to ban gas hookups in most new buildings, requiring all-electric heating and cooking starting in 2026. Several cities, including New York and San Francisco, have similar prohibitions, although some Republican-controlled states have blocked their municipalities from banning gas.

Heavy investment by the United States has spurred a spirited reaction from other wealthy nations. Countries that initially complained that the United States was unfairly subsidizing clean energy manufacturers have since engaged in a sort of friendly subsidy race.

Canada, South Korea and others have pushed for their companies to have better access to the American incentives, while offering similar subsidies to their domestic manufacturers. After Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the European Union moved to lessen its dependence on Russian oil and gas. In May, for the first time ever, wind and solar power in the E.U. generated more electricity than fossil fuels.

And in China, which is currently both the world’s top polluter and the global leader for renewable power, the government continues to invest in every stage of clean energy production, from solar cells to batteries, wind turbines and more. Like the United States, China provides subsidies to buyers of electric vehicles. Last year it spent $546 billion on clean energy, far more than any other country in the world.

With costs falling fast, manufacturing has picked up and installations of solar and wind projects have increased. The U.S. solar industry installed a record 6.1 gigawatts of capacity in the first quarter of 2023, a 47 percent increase over the same period last year.

And those low costs have led many of the United States’ biggest corporations, such as Alphabet, Amazon and General Motors, to purchase large amounts of wind and solar power, because it burnishes their reputations and because it makes good economic sense.

“We’re seeing the nonlinear change happen before us,” said Jon Creyts, chief executive of RMI, a nonprofit organization that promotes the energy transition. “And that’s important, because we’re facing a climate crisis right now.”

‘A National Phenomenon’

Steve Uerling’s Tulsa home is a model of energy efficiency. He replaced all his incandescent light bulbs with LEDs. He installed a heat pump and rooftop solar panels this year. And he drives a plug-in hybrid Ford Fusion and a Tesla Model 3.

Mr. Uerling, a mechanical engineer, said he wanted to see renewable power take off in Oklahoma and was trying to do his part. But he was also driven by his wallet.

Source: International Energy Agency

Note: Sales share of battery electric vehicles excludes plug-in hybrids. By The New York Times

“My fuel cost is equivalent to getting 200 miles a gallon on gasoline,” he said. “We charge at night, when we get a much cheaper rate on our electricity.”

Millions of people around the country are making similar calculations. Electric vehicles are by far the fastest-growing segment of the auto industry, with record sales of 300,000 in the second quarter of 2023, a 48 percent increase from a year earlier. Teslas are now among the best-selling cars in the country, and Ford has expanded its production of the F-150 Lightning, the electric version of its popular pickup truck, after a surge of initial demand created a waiting list.

Concerns among consumers about the availability of charging stations as well as the cost of some models have helped to cool sales somewhat, leading some automakers to slash prices. Still, federal tax credits of up to $7,500 have made the least expensive electric vehicles competitive with gas-powered cars. And about two dozen states offer additional tax credits, rebates or reduced fees, further pushing down their cost.

Government action is also helping heavier vehicles go electric. Sales of electric school buses are soaring, largely because of $5 billion in federal grants that can cover 100 percent of the cost for low-income communities. The Postal Service plans to spend nearly $10 billion to purchase 66,000 electric mail trucks — roughly 30 percent of its fleet — over the next five years.

Electric vehicles sales are growing quickly, but consumers are still concerned about high upfront costs and charging availability.

In the private sector, Amazon has ordered 100,000 electric delivery trucks from Rivian. Tesla has an electric semitruck, as do several other manufacturers, including Peterbilt.

Companies that provide charging stations are springing up to meet the demand. Francis Energy has more than 400 chargers across Oklahoma and is expanding nationwide. EVgo, which has one of the largest fast-charging networks in the United States, plans to more than double the 3,000 charging stalls it operates.

“It is not a red-state, blue-state thing,” said Cathy Zoi, EVgo’s chief executive. “It is a national phenomenon.”

In an unusual move, seven carmakers — BMW Group, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes-Benz Group and Stellantis — are spending $1 billion in a joint venture to build 30,000 charging ports on major highways and other locations in the United States and Canada.

The shift is happening so quickly that some of America’s most iconic automakers are preparing for a world beyond gasoline-powered cars and trucks.

General Motors, which has the largest market share of any carmaker in the United States, has committed to selling only zero-emissions vehicles by 2035. It’s a “once-in-a-generation inflection point” for the 114-year-old automaker, according to Mary Barra, G.M.’s chief executive.

In an interview, Ms. Barra said her company began to consider an all-electric future in 2020. “We started to see this happening with the consumer research we did,” said Ms. Barra, who has subsequently bet billions on G.M.’s efforts to reorient its engineering, overhaul its manufacturing facilities and processes and build new battery plants.

As the cost of batteries comes down, and the number of charging stations nationwide goes up, Ms. Barra expects exponential growth. “I think it’s going to be definitely an upward trajectory,” she said. “It’ll be a little bumpy, but bumpy growing.”

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Source: Media

Electric Vehicle Myths

Source: https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths#Myth1

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Electric Vehicles: Will they save or destroy us?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNBLhGsjHQI

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Myth #1: Electric vehicles are worse for the climate than gasoline cars because of the power plant emissions.

• FACT: Electric vehicles typically have a smaller carbon footprint than gasoline cars, even when accounting for the electricity used for charging.

  Electric vehicles (EVs) have no tailpipe emissions. Generating the electricity used to charge EVs, however, may create carbon pollution. The amount varies widely based on how local power is generated, e.g., using coal or natural gas, which emit carbon pollution, versus renewable resources like wind or solar, which do not. Even accounting for these electricity emissions, research shows that an EV is typically responsible for lower levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) than an average new gasoline car. To the extent that more renewable energy sources like wind and solar are used to generate electricity, the total GHGs associated with EVs could be even lower. (In 2020, renewables became the second-most prevalent U.S. electricity source.1 ) Learn more about electricity production in your area by visiting EPA’s Power Profiler interactive web page. By simply inputting your zip code, you can find the energy mix in your region.

  EPA and Department of Energy's (DOE’s) Beyond Tailpipe Emissions Calculator can help you estimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with charging and driving an EV or a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) where you live. You can select an EV or PHEV model and type in your zip code to see the CO2 emissions and how they stack up against those associated with a gasoline car.

Myth #2: Electric vehicles are worse for the climate than gasoline cars because of battery manufacturing.

• FACT: The greenhouse gas emissions associated with an electric vehicle over its lifetime are typically lower than those from an average gasoline-powered vehicle, even when accounting for manufacturing.

  
  Some studies have shown that making a typical EV can create more carbon pollution than making a gasoline car. This is because of the additional energy required to manufacture an EV’s battery. Still, over the lifetime of the vehicle, total GHG emissions associated with manufacturing, charging, and driving an EV are typically lower than the total GHGs associated with a gasoline car. That’s because EVs have zero tailpipe emissions and are typically responsible for significantly fewer GHGs during operation (see Myth 1 above).

  For example, researchers at Argonne National Laboratory estimated emissions for both a gasoline car and an EV with a 300-mile electric range. In their estimates, while GHG emissions from EV manufacturing and end-of-life are higher (shown in orange below), total GHGs for the EV are still lower than those for the gasoline car.

Source: EPA

Estimates shown2 from GREET 2 2021 are intended to be illustrative only. Estimates represent model year 2020. Emissions will vary based on assumptions about the specific vehicles being compared, EV battery size and chemistry, vehicle lifetimes, and the electricity grid used to recharge the EV, among other factors.

Above, the blue bar represents emissions associated with the battery. The orange bars encompass the rest of the vehicle manufacturing (e.g., extracting materials, manufacturing and assembling other parts, and vehicle assembly) and end-of-life (recycling or disposal). The gray bars represent upstream emissions associated with producing gasoline or electricity (U.S. mix), and the yellow bar shows tailpipe emissions during vehicle operations.

Recycling EV batteries can reduce the emissions associated with making an EV by reducing the need for new materials. While some challenges exist today, research is ongoing to improve the process and rate of EV battery recycling.

Myth #3: The increase in electric vehicles entering the market will collapse the U.S. power grid.

• FACT: Electric vehicles have charging strategies that can prevent overloading the grid, and, in some cases, support grid reliability.

  It is true that the increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road will lead to increased electricity demand. Yet, how that impacts the grid will depend on several factors, such as the power level and time of day when vehicles are charged, and the potential for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging 3 among others.

  • EVs can be charged at off-peak times, such as overnight, when rates are often cheaper. Even with a mix of charging times (so not all nighttime charging), research indicates that sufficient capacity will exist to cover EVs entering the market in the coming years.4 And further down the road, when renewables make up a larger part of our energy mix in many regions, switching to more daytime charging (when some renewables like solar generate energy) with some energy storage capability should allow the grid to handle increases in EV charging.5 California leads the country with more than 1 million electric vehicles and EV charging currently makes up less than 1% of the state’s grid total load, even during peak hours.6

  • Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging allows EVs to act as a power source that may help with grid reliability by pushing energy back to the grid from an EV battery. This is done by allowing EVs to charge when electricity demand is low and drawing on them when that demand is high.

  Long term, higher electricity demand from EV growth may drive the need for upgrades to transmission and distribution infrastructure. Planning for this possibility is underway. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Build a Better Grid Initiative, launched as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will provide over $13 billion towards improving the reliability and efficiency of the grid over the next decade. Visit DOE’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Programs and search “grid infrastructure” to see where the initial investments will be made.

Myth #4: There is nowhere to charge.

• FACT: Electric vehicles can be plugged into the same type of outlet as your toaster! When you need to charge while on the road, you’ll find over 51,000 stations in the U.S. available to the public.

  
  Many people can meet their driving needs by plugging in only at home. Most EVs can be charged with a standard 120 Volt (Level 1) outlet. To charge the vehicle more quickly, you can install a dedicated 240 Volt (Level 2) outlet or charging system. And for those who live in apartments or condominiums, EV charging stations are becoming a more common building amenity.

  Access to EV charging will increase significantly in the coming years as a result of government initiatives put in place as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, including an investment of up to $7.5 billion to build out a national network of electric vehicle chargers along highways, and in communities and neighborhoods. In February 2023, the White House announced major progress toward a made-in-America national network of EV chargers.

  Interested in seeing how many chargers may be needed in your area? Use DOE’s EV Pro Lite Tool to get an estimate on charging needs in your state or metropolitan area as EV adoption grows.

  For up-to-date information on EV charging locations, visit DOE’s Alternative Fuel Data Center.
   

Myth #5: Electric vehicles don’t have enough range to handle daily travel demands.

• FACT: Electric vehicle range is more than enough for typical daily use in the U.S.

  
  EVs have sufficient range to cover a typical household’s daily travel, which is approximately 50 miles on average per day.7 The majority of households (roughly 85%) travel under 100 miles on a typical day. Most EV models go above 200 miles on a fully-charged battery, with nearly all new models traveling more than 100 miles on a single charge. And automakers have announced plans to release even more long-range models in the coming years.

  Range estimates for specific EVs are available from the Find A Car tool on www.fueleconomy.gov—click on the car you are interested in, and check out the “EPA Fuel Economy” line in the table.

  How you drive your vehicle and the driving conditions, including hot and cold weather, also affect the range of an EV; for instance, researchers found on average range could decrease about 40% due to cold temperatures and the use of heat.8

Myth #6: Electric vehicles only come as sedans.

• FACT: Electric vehicles now come in a variety of shapes and sizes.

  
  EVs and PHEVs are now available in many vehicle classes, extending beyond small sedan/compact models. There are currently more than 50 PHEV and EV models on the market. More models are being released in the coming years, so vehicle class options are likely to expand.

Myth #7: Electric vehicles are not as safe as comparable gasoline vehicles.

• FACT: Electric vehicles must meet the same safety standards as conventional vehicles.

  
  All light duty cars and trucks sold in the United States must meet the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. To meet these standards, vehicles must undergo an extensive, long-established testing process, regardless of whether the vehicle operates on gasoline or electricity. Separately, EV battery packs must meet their own testing standards. Moreover, EVs are designed with additional safety features that shut down the electrical system when they detect a collision or short circuit.

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Just Exceptional...

“Words fail to capture the resplendent magnificence of this exquisite beverage. Its qualities transcend the boundaries of human expression, rendering it a true paragon of its kind. Indeed, it stands unequivocally among the most exceptional —-elixir—- concoctions ever produced…

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Source: Media

The Economic Losers in the New World Order

Giant subsidies and rising protectionism are upending decades of free trade. Smaller countries, from the U.K. to Singapore, are getting left behind.

WSJ by Ed Ballard, Jason Douglas, and Jon Emont, August 14, 2023 The Economic Losers in the New World Order

The world’s biggest economies are offering  huge subsidies in a cutthroat race to win the industries of the future. The losers: all the countries that can’t pay up. 

New tax credits for manufacturing batteries, solar-power equipment and other green technology are drawing a flood of capital to the U.S. The European Union is trying to respond with its own green-energy support package. Japan has announced plans for $150 billion of borrowing to finance a wave of investment in green technology. All of them are working to become less dependent on China, which has a big lead in areas including batteries and the minerals to make them.

Foreign direct investment flowsSource: United NationsNote: EU figures exclude Luxembourg

Now, some smaller players are getting left behind. Many are nimble economies that were on the rise during decades of free trade, but are at a disadvantage in a new era of aggressive industrial policy. Industrialized nations such as the U.K. and Singapore lack the scale to compete against the biggest economic blocs in offering subsidies. Emerging markets such as Indonesia, which had hoped to use its natural resources to climb the economic ladder, are also threatened by the shift.

Intel has been offered $11 billion in subsidies from the German government to build two semiconductor plants, in what Prime Minister Olaf Scholz called the largest foreign direct investment in German history. The pledged government financing is substantially more than the annual budget of Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. 

“Let me tell you plainly: We cannot afford to outbid the big boys,” deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong told supporters at a recent political rally. 

For many tech companies nurtured in the U.K., growth lies elsewhere. British battery-technology startup Nexeon, which developed its technology near Oxford, helped by government funding, raised over $200 million last year. Its first commercial factory will be in South Korea, likely followed by a plant in North America. 

“But not the U.K., sadly,” said Scott Brown, Nexeon’s chief executive. Nexeon doesn’t see that changing without more government support for the battery industry. 

AMTE Power, one of the U.K.’s few homegrown battery manufacturers, has said it may rethink plans to locate a proposed $200-million-plus factory in Scotland given the difference in subsidies on offer in the U.S. and Europe. Arrival, an electric-vehicle startup, said last year it wants to focus its manufacturing in the U.S. instead of the U.K, citing the tax breaks. 

The U.S., which is offering $369 billion in incentives and funding for clean energy as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, is seeing a windfall of foreign investment. German carmaker BMW just broke ground for a new battery plant in South Carolina. South Korean firms Hyundai and LG announced a $4.3 billion battery plant in Georgia. Panasonic of Japan is building a plant in Kansas. 

Unwinding globalization

The subsidy race marks a step away from the economic integration that for decades broke down barriers to trade and investment between countries. 

Globalization transformed once-poor countries such as South Korea and Taiwan into high-tech, developed economies, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. Western consumers got an abundance of affordable consumer goods and a higher standard of living. Technological advances and new management ideas also moved more freely between countries, along with goods and financial resources.

The model also had steep costs. Once-thriving communities in the U.S. and Western Europe were hollowed out as manufacturing jobs moved to Asia or the former Soviet states. Environmental concerns mushroomed as the global economy consumed more natural resources. Some economies faced destabilizing bouts of capital flight as foreign money flooded in and out. 

Unwinding that global integration—whether for reasons of national security, geopolitical rivalry or supply-chain anxieties—comes with its own problems, economists say. Especially at risk are smaller, developing economies that need access to global markets if they’re to trade their way to greater prosperity. 

“The world as a whole is becoming more inward and turning away from open trade and investment,” said David Loevinger, a former U.S. Treasury official who is managing director for emerging markets at asset manager TCW Group. “Europe, the U.S. and China are in a subsidy competition and the losers in that competition are poorer economies with less fiscal resources.” 

The Western embrace of industrial policy could be especially painful for countries that had hoped to exploit the adoption of green technologies to turbocharge their own economic development. 

Indonesia has ambitions to parlay its abundant nickel resources into a world-leading battery industry. But U.S. rules, put in place as part of the IRA, deny subsidies for EV batteries that contain large amounts of minerals from nations that are not American free-trade partners. Indonesia is among them.

“We have all the natural resources. We have the human resources. And we are a country that’s a democracy,” said Arsjad Rasjid, the head of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in an interview. “Please don’t shut us down.”

The winners

As a leader in the subsidy race, the U.S. is experiencing an investment boom. The U.S. took in about 22% of global foreign direct investment last year, making it the world’s top recipient, according to United Nations data. That is slightly lower than the 26% it received in 2021 when global investment bounced back after a lull during the pandemic, but significantly higher than the 13% it got in 2019. Spending on construction related to manufacturing rose 76% in May compared with a year earlier, to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $194 billion, Census Bureau data show.

In the U.K., Nexeon’s funding underscores the power of the U.S. purse to skew the playing field. As well as the private capital it raised last year, Nexeon received two million pounds, worth about $2.55 million, from a U.K. government EV-industry fund. 

Weeks later, two U.S. rivals, Sila Nanotechnologies and Group14 Technologies, both got $100 million from the Energy Department under a battery-industry funding program introduced in the 2021 infrastructure law. Like Nexeon, those companies are making silicon-based materials to be used in battery anodes to improve performance.

“The economics of projects in the U.S. are just out of sight,” said Guy Debelle, a former deputy governor of Australia’s central bank and now director of Fortescue Future Industries, the green energy unit of West Australia miner Fortescue Metals. The company is scouting investment opportunities and currently sees the U.S. as the most likely location due to subsidies that could knock up to 60% off a project’s price tag, said Debelle.

The European Union is preparing its own support package, relaxing limits on subsidies member countries can give industry. By 2030, the EU wants 40% of the key technologies needed for the green transition to be manufactured in the bloc, including solar equipment—a sector currently dominated by China—wind turbines and batteries.

The U.S. battery production pipeline, which measures capacity from projects in the works, has jumped 67% since the IRA was announced and now matches the size of Europe’s, which grew by 26% over that period, according to estimates by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, a U.K. based firm that gathers industry data.  

The Brexit problem

The shift in global trade comes at a particularly awkward time for the U.K., which has been struggling to chart a new course in the global economy after leaving the European Union in 2020, which meant it no longer had easy access to its giant single market.

Brexit proponents said the U.K. could strike bilateral trade deals with other countries  and double down on globalization. Since then, momentum for free trade has stalled and now appears to be in retreat. 

“Back during the Brexit vote, nobody had any idea that we’d see a resurgence of industrial policy in the U.S.,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School. 

Now, the U.K. government is facing calls from all corners of the country’s economy to respond to the interventionist turn in global economics with its own reinvigorated industrial strategy. 

The U.K.’s auto sector got a boost recently when the owner of Jaguar Land Rover chose to build a new EV-battery plant there, but the overall scale of green subsidies lags far behind the U.S.

Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has promised to unveil the U.K.’s response this fall, but has downplayed expectations and said Britain will not “go toe-to-toe with our friends and allies in some distortive global subsidy race.” He said the U.K. will look to target funding to areas where Britain has a clear competitive advantage.  

New alliances

One solution for countries that can’t compete is to draw rich trade partners closer and benefit from their industrial policies, as Canada and Mexico have done through their free-trade deal with the U.S., said Chad Bown, a trade expert and former World Bank official at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank in Washington, D.C. Indonesia’s government is participating in the American-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, an economic pact that it hopes will improve market access for its minerals.

Last year, Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia would seek to form an OPEC-like cartel for nickel, a battery mineral whose production Indonesia dominates, as a response to protectionism by countries that make EVs. An OPEC-modeled organization would coordinate nickel production levels with other major exporters to ensure elevated prices. 

Analysts doubt the plan, in part because other nickel producers don’t want to alienate powerful trading partners such as the U.S. and China. Similar ideas for an OPEC-like organization of lithium producers have been floated by left-wing leaders in Latin America, but haven’t been enacted.

Indonesia and Zimbabwe have put in place export restrictions on minerals such as nickel, bauxite and lithium, along with requirements that foreign companies build processing facilities in the country as a condition for exporting. 

“I’m not a fan of these policies but they’re clearly very popular,” said Simon Evenett, a professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. “Clearly it will drive up prices and it will increase uncertainty and risk.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Former vice president Mike Pence speaks at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Aug 10. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)

Opinion: In Iowa, Mike Pence delivers a powerful message against Trump

TWP by Karen Tumulty, Deputy opinion editor and columnist, August 13, 2023 

DES MOINES — When former vice president Mike Pence took his turn on the Des Moines Register’s soapbox at the Iowa State Fair last Thursday — a quadrennial ritual for presidential contenders — there were, as expected, some hostile shots from the audience.

One man asked Pence why he committed “treason” on Jan. 6, 2021. Another, referring to a brutal interview he had recently done with the right’s favorite provocateur, mocked: “How’s life going since Tucker Carlson ruined your career?”

But afterward, as Pence lingered to shake hands, there came quieter encounters. Nathaniel Gavronsky, 41, pushed forward to thank Pence for standing on principle that day in the Capitol and refusing Donald Trump’s demands that the vice president, in what was a ceremonial role, toss out the electoral votes that made Joe Biden president.

Even as rioters were swarming the Capitol chanting, “Hang Mike Pence,” he performed what the Constitution required, Gavronsky told me. “I’ve researched the heck out of it, and I don’t believe there was anything else he could have done.”

So will he vote for Pence at January’s Republican caucuses in Wayne County, where he lives? Not a chance, Gavronsky said. Which I had already figured out, given that he was wearing a T-shirt that said: TEAM TRUMP.

There has rarely, if ever, been a candidacy more bound in conundrum than this one. As Trump continues to hold what looks like an insurmountable lead in the polls, his once-devoted lieutenant has reluctantly become an essential witness for the prosecution in the Justice Department’s case against the former president for criminal conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election. Meanwhile, Pence’s struggling campaign has barely gained enough traction to qualify for the stage of the first GOP primary debate.

It doesn’t help that social media comes to life every time a heckler calls Pence a traitor or worse. But just as frequent are those rarely recorded moments of affirmation for what history will surely regard as his highest service to the nation during the four years he held its second-highest office.

“Really, from the time we moved home to Indiana, began to travel the country with some regularity, my overwhelming experience has been very humbling expressions of gratitude — standing in an aisle on an airplane, stopped at a grocery store,” Pence said when we sat down for an interview a couple of days later in Ankeny. “And now that we’ve got a campaign going on, more and more people are coming up and saying that now.”

His wife, Karen, added: “People at the fair came up with tears in their eyes, just holding back emotion, saying, ‘Thank you for saving our country.’”

He is more eager than he once was to remind voters of what he did that day, and his criticism of Trump is increasingly direct and pointed.

The day after the Justice Department released its second indictment, Pence told reporters that his former boss had surrounded himself with “a group of crackpot lawyers that kept telling him what his itching ears wanted to hear.” His campaign has started selling red-lettered T-shirts that say “TOO HONEST” — a reference to an episode mentioned in the 45-page document, in which Trump berated his vice president for refusing to buckle, saying: “You’re too honest.”

But, ultimately, Pence maintains, the events of Jan. 6 will not be what voters have uppermost when they go to the polls. “Elections are about the future,” he said.

And therein lies another conundrum, one that Pence will have an even harder time overcoming. It is possible that there will be enough voters in the Republican base looking for a way to move on from Trump. But it is hard to imagine that a vice president who never expressed a significant disagreement with Trump in public until Jan. 6 will be the choice amid a slate of fresher faces in 2024.

Still, Pence assured me, there will be plenty to distinguish him from others on the debate stage in Milwaukee on Aug. 23, as well as from the front-runner, who is likely to be absent.

He is solidly in favor of supporting Ukraine and is dismayed “when I see the former president, when I see others in the field that are walking away from American leadership on the world stage, beginning to embrace the kind of a rising tide of isolationism on the populist right.”

Whereas most of the others — including Trump — have put Social Security and Medicare off-limits, Pence regularly argues that the nation’s long-term debt problem cannot be solved unless spending for those programs can be brought under control. And even amid growing evidence that the abortion issue is becoming a drag on his party’s prospects, he is pushing for nationwide restrictions, rather than leaving the question to the states.

All of this, he said, represents a return to the classic conservatism of his idol, Ronald Reagan. That there is an appetite for that in the GOP is a dubious proposition in the era of Trumpism, a transformation that took place in the party as Pence stood unwaveringly at the president’s side. His four years of fealty to Trump are also the reason he is hardly the ideal tribune for what he said is a longing in the country “for us to restore a threshold of civility in public life. Washington has lost a sense of treating one another the way you want to be treated.”

Given how doubtful his prospects, it is fair to ask why Pence is running. “I believe I am the most qualified candidate on the stage to bring this country back to the mainstream conservative agenda that always made America strong and prosperous and free,” Pence said.

And I, for one, am glad he will be there when the candidates get together in Milwaukee. Because no one could serve as a better reminder of how close the country came to losing that freedom, which starts with respecting its democratic institutions. Now comes his best chance to make that case, even if many in the Republican base don’t want to hear it.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Yörük Işık has been watching the waters in his native Istanbul for over a decade | Ozan Kose/AFP

The hunt for Russia’s secret ships

Turkey’s strategic straits are a trade superhighway — and a lifeline for the Kremlin’s war machine.

POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, AUGUST 14, 2023

ISTANBUL — Yörük Işık puts down his espresso cup suddenly and picks up his camera. “This one is carrying diesel,” he says, training the long lens on a rusted red tanker bobbing into view in the distance. “Maybe in violation of the price cap.”

For more than a decade, he’s watched the waters in his native Istanbul, tracking the comings and goings of the tens of thousands of grain carriers, container vessels and warships that chart a course along the Bosphorus Strait every year. The natural canal flowing through the heart of Europe’s largest city links the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, connecting Russia and Ukraine to the rest of the world.

“I’m obsessive,” he explains, “I don’t like to go too far inland because I have this fear I’ll miss something. You never know what’s going to happen and often you don’t realize it’s suspicious until afterwards. Even when I have free time or I’m writing a report, I sit on my balcony so I can keep an eye out.”

With his long hair and grey beard, Işık doesn’t stand out among the fishermen, tug captains and dock workers making a living in Turkey’s ports. But as a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think-tank, the 52-year-old has built up unparalleled evidence of Russia’s efforts to quietly acquire sanctioned goods and military hardware — while keeping energy and agricultural exports flowing to help pay for them. A regular analyst in Turkish media and on television, his Bosphorus Observer site has become a go-to resource for those tracking the Kremlin’s supply routes.

Ultimately, it’s a battle that could decide the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

“It’s all about finding out what they’re hiding,” he said, looking out from the café on the Bosphorus as the call to prayer wafts across the water from the half-dozen or so white minarets that dot the hillside.

“Sometimes they’ll lie and say a ship is going from one perfectly innocent place to another. They’ll turn their tracking off and go dark in the Black Sea or spoof their location. Along the waterway is endless traffic, it’s like watching an Istanbul taxi rank, but when you look closer and see the ship physically isn’t there, that tells you a lot. The camera doesn’t lie.”

Troubled waters

Just 500 kilometers away across the Black Sea, Russia’s war is raging in Ukraine. Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Western nations have imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow in an effort to cut it off from luxury products and dual-use goods that could be repurposed for use on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the G7 club of nations has imposed a $60 per barrel cap on Russian crude oil, threatening steep penalties for traders who flout the rules.

But analysts and policymakers fear not enough is being done to make the restrictions stick and helping Russia get hold of what it wants has become big business for middlemen — both companies and countries — prepared to take the risk.

“It’s very difficult to track what’s coming from Europe to Russia and vice versa,” said George Voloshin, an expert in sanctions circumvention with financial crime watchdog ACAMS. “We have a very incomplete picture because Russia is trying to adapt to increasingly stringent sanctions and once you have a control in place, they find a way around it. Turkey is the gateway for that kind of trade — particularly for European consumer goods.”

According to statistics collated by analytics platform Trade Data Monitor, seen by POLITICO, Turkey is the fifth-biggest source of Russia’s imports, shipping more than $3.6 billion worth of goods and commodities last year alone. Machinery and electronic components are among its top exports for 2023, up 200 percent and 183 percent respectively in the first six months of this year. And that doesn’t even include the supplies that simply transit the Bosphorus without ever formally entering Turkey.

“Ankara has carved a role for itself where on one hand it’s an intermediary in the conflict, but on the other a convenient geographical hub for the re-export of things that Moscow needs,” said Maria Shagina, a senior fellow working on sanctions policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Yörük Işık has spent years building evidence on Russia’s efforts to circumvent sanctions and move military hardware into and out of the Black Sea | Gabriel Gavin/POLITICO

“That ranges from oil and diesel shipments to military hardware. For Russia, this comes at a cost — but, at the moment, it’s profitable and it’s hell-bent on winning a war of attrition this way over time.”

Chasing a shadow

Meanwhile, a so-called shadow fleet of hundreds of aging tankers has emerged on the global market over the past year to haul embargoed Russian energy exports and buy oil above the price cap, giving the Kremlin much-needed revenues to pay its troops and purchase weaponry. Without proper maintenance or insurance, they frequently turn off their transponders to hide the origin of their fuel or carry out ship-to-ship transfers to confuse those watching from afar.

In June, the EU moved to bar these vessels from its ports — but many continue to sail through the Bosphorus.

“The shadow fleet was all under the flag of the Marshall Islands, and they were all deregistered thanks to successful U.S. diplomacy,” said Işık. “Then, in one night, the whole shadow fleet moved to Gabon registration. Maybe next it will move to Cameroon or Palau. When you see these flags, it’s not that they’re immediately guilty, but there’s a higher chance you’ll find something compared to others.”

With warnings that circumvention could prolong the war, costing more Ukrainian lives, Brussels is ramping up pressure to tighten existing loopholes. According to Voloshin, those like Işık who monitor ports and waterways can be “very useful” in piecing together the full scale of the problem and helping target sanctions against those involved. “You need people like that at every single dock and airport, but unfortunately that’s impossible.”

Worse still for the maritime industry, unprecedented Western sanctions mean unsuspecting companies could fall foul of the existing rules inadvertently. “The EU’s latest sanctions package has introduced the first ban on spoofing anywhere in the world,” said Ami Daniel, co-founder of Windward, an Israeli tech firm that tracks vessels suspected of sanctions circumvention using satellite imagery.

“Anyone doing business with vessels suspected of that kind of activity as well as vessel who turn off transmissions or conduct unreported ship-to-ship transfer could face criminal charges, fines or see their goods impounded. If a container under the transit ban — chemicals, automotive, technology — makes an unscheduled stop in Russia, it becomes untradeable, and without due diligence major companies could be caught up in that.”

Playing both sides

Of even greater concern are the ships said to be covertly supplying Russia’s armed forces.

“With naval ships, you can see their flags, it’s not something secret. But some are now disguising themselves as merchant vessels — they might do commercial jobs, or hire civilian crews to hide it, but they’re carrying Russian Armed Forces equipment and not flying a naval flag,” said Işık.

“Turkey isn’t inspecting these ships. During the Syrian war, when there was lots of tension with Russia, Turkey created lots of headaches for naval auxillary vessels, and there’s plenty of evidence put out by people like me that these ships are operating in this way. But Ankara isn’t being creative or coming up with new approaches at the moment.”

Despite being a member of NATO, Turkey has refused to impose sanctions on Moscow, instead hosting a series of ill-fated peace talks and stepping up economic relations with both sides. That policy seems to reflect public opinion inside the country where, according to a poll last year from Aksoy Research, nearly two thirds of Turkish people worry that the war is having a negative impact on their country — but 80 percent believe they still need to stay neutral.

As part of efforts to insulate itself from the consequences of the conflict, Ankara also underwrote the U.N.-brokered grain deal, credited with helping get food supplies from Ukraine’s blockaded ports to the developing world. Its collapse following the Kremlin’s withdrawal last month has sparked fears of famine and led to a spate of Russian attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure. Turkey’s National Security Council has since warned tension in the Black Sea “is not in anyone’s benefit,” but stopped at calling for the two sides to return to the negotiating table.

“The Turkish government would rather see predictability than not, but it’s clear their government has been compensated from the conflict,” Ryan Gingeras, a professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, told POLITICO. “They’ve abetted stolen shipments of grain out of Ukraine — they’ve made sure they’ve stayed on good relations with Moscow, as well as Kyiv, but the collapse of the grain deal shows the limits to which Ankara can exert influence over the Black Sea.”

War on the waves

Ukraine is now evidently intent on dealing with the threat Russia poses itself.

Last week, Kyiv declared the waters around Russia’s Black Sea ports a “war risk area” from August 23 until further notice. Speaking to POLITICO, Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that his country views “everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea [as] our valid military targets.”

Hours earlier, the Ukrainian armed forces reportedly hit a Russian fuel tanker, the Sig, with a sea drone, causing it serious damage. The ship, sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2019, had been sailing close to Ukraine’s occupied Crimean peninsula, carrying 43,123 barrels of fuel oils.

“The target they chose was the most wonderful one,” Işık beamed.

“The Sig is a ship that, along with its sister ship Yaz, has been assisting the Russian armed forces for more than half a decade now. Hitting the Sig, which is a secret Russian naval auxillary vessel carrying kerosene from refineries in occupied Crimea, hits Russian logistics in Syria, it hurts the profits of the Kremlin-linked elites making money from that trade and cuts the money being used to pay their private militaries.”

“If my work helped Ukraine identify it then I’m proud, because I’ve been after it for a long, long, long time,” he said.“There’s 15-20 other targets like that, and I think Ukraine knows about them all. Given the world has chosen not to take action, they have acted.”

But for Işık, Istanbul isn’t just a place to watch the war unfold — it holds the key to ending it.

“This city has been here for thousands of years because of the waterway,” he said, swilling coffee grounds around the bottom of his cup. “If you control the water, you control the trade — and then you get to decide how the world works.”

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TREVOR PAULHUS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Oil Firms Face Hard Choices After a Year of Big Spending

The industry’s wartime windfall is dwindling

TWSJ by David Uberti, August 14, 2023

Wall Street wants Big Oil’s cash. Washington wants it to drill more. Keeping them both happy is about to get a lot tougher.

Armed with a mountain of cash after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices skyrocketing, U.S. oil-and-gas firms cranked up production near record levels while also raining money on shareholders with dividends and buybacks.

The continuing investor windfall and a recent run-up in oil prices helped make the energy sector the S&P 500’s best performer over the past month. 

But oil prices are still considerably below last summer’s highs, dragging down producer revenues. That is going to mean hard choices for businesses such as international major oil companies and independent drillers, as well as for energy investors and policy makers who have benefited from the past year’s largess.

“It is moving toward companies spending what they can while they can,” said Mark Young, a senior analyst at data-analytics firm Evaluate Energy. 

How the industry uses its cash in coming years has huge implications for U.S. drivers and energy investors. Oil executives last year buoyed their stock prices by funneling most of their wartime windfalls to investors—not new drilling. As a surge in fuel costs supercharged inflation to 40-year highs, President Biden accused oil firms of profiteering and urged them to invest in boosting capacity.

Higher oil prices gradually encouraged the industry to do just that. Exxon Mobil and Chevron increased capital spending last quarter from a year ago while paying a combined $15.2 billion in dividends and buybacks.

But companies’ ability to keep investing while extending shareholder returns will get harder as their cash piles dwindle from spending and acquisitions. Exxon Mobil and Chevron have a combined $39.4 billion in cash, down from $48.4 billion at the end of the first quarter, according to FactSet.

Investment in the American oil patch last quarter outpaced shareholder returns for the first time since the Kremlin’s invasion, according to Evaluate Energy. The more than 40 oil-and-gas producers tracked by the firm boosted capital spending to $28.4 billion, while funneling a combined $25.4 billion to investors.

In 2019, that group spent an average of $24.3 billion per quarter on projects and $11.3 billion on shareholder returns. Capital spending fell sharply after the pandemic derailed U.S. demand for fuels, only recently surpassing pre-Covid levels.

Better-than-expected production in recent months led federal officials to bump their U.S. output projections for this year to a record 12.8 million barrels of crude a day. A gusher of oil this year blunted the impact of Russian and Saudi production cuts and pushed down gasoline and diesel costs in the first half of 2023.

Smaller exploration and production companies have continued to spend a greater portion of their cash on new projects. 

“We never said that we didn’t want to grow. We just don’t want growth to be the target,” Vicki Hollub, chief executive of Occidental Petroleum, told analysts during an earnings call. 

Cash is concentrated among six firms in the​S&P 500 energy sector. Source: FactIva

Many Wall Street analysts expect the recent rebound in oil prices to continue, potentially giving an incentive for more drilling. The tightening market has contributed to what Goldman Sachs recently described as a turning point in capital spending—fueled by a promise of higher returns and a growing focus on energy security.

Other investors remain wary about boosting production. The U.S. and European Union are encouraging more clean energy with a wave of subsidies intended to curb fossil-fuel use in the coming decades. Some experts warn that the best land for oil-and-gas extraction in the U.S. has already been drilled. 

That has left many companies trumpeting cost cuts and new technologies that can more quickly drill longer wells through shale rock. The message to investors: Oil-and-gas producers can increasingly do more with less. 

“This is not just one-off execution,” Toby Rice, CEO of independent natural-gas producer EQT, told analysts last month.

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Hemingway and the “gang” say: “Farewell To The Arms…

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Project "Alcatraz": A Comprehensive Initiative for Gang Rehabilitation and Reintegration by Santa Teresa...

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“If you treat an individual as he is, he will remain how he is. But if you treat him as if he were what he ought to be and could be, he will become what he ought to be and could be.”

―Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

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Just Exceptional...

“Words fail to capture the resplendent magnificence of this exquisite beverage. Its qualities transcend the boundaries of human expression, rendering it a true paragon of its kind. Indeed, it stands unequivocally among the most exceptional —-elixir—- concoctions ever produced, enrapturing discerning palates with unparalleled flavors and nuances. Its profound impact lingers long after consumption, leaving an indelible impression that implores one to partake in its delights time and time again. Indeed, it is a gem of unrivaled brilliance, a testament to the artistry and craftsmanship that define the realm of fine spirits…

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It is the cruelest reality imaginable...

Criminal activity has become a worldwide threat recently. The current statistics are alarming, with homicides taking the lives of almost half a million people globally. Surprisingly, this number is higher than the sum of deaths caused by armed conflicts and terrorist attacks during the same period.

To deal with the problem effectively, it's crucial to comprehend the intricate relationships between Latin American gangs, the widespread availability of firearms in Europe, and the extent of organized crime. Latin American criminal groups have played a crucial role in the increase of crime rates in the region. These groups frequently operate with a twisted notion of loyalty, engaging in violent conflicts over territories to dominate and control lucrative illegal activities. Their influence goes beyond local communities, spreading into diverse aspects of society and perpetuating cycles of violence.

In Europe, the widespread availability of firearms worsens the hazards of criminal activities. As guns are easily accessible, criminals become more confident, leading to an increase in armed robberies, gang violence, and even terror attacks. Recognizing the urgency of addressing this crisis, the United Nations implemented “Sustainable Development Goal 16”, which aims to decrease violence and associated deaths by 2030. Nonetheless, the current crime rate persists. Therefore, achieving the goal on time is likely.

To effectively tackle crime and ensure community safety, a diverse approach is necessary. Such an approach ought to involve investing in social programs that address the root causes of crime, encourage education and skills development, enable economic opportunities, and bolster international cooperation to dismantle transnational criminal networks.

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A déjà vu of goodness…

On a chilly autumn evening, the “Spirit of Good Hope” entered a bustling café on Rue de l'Abreuvoir in Paris. It seemed familiar. The Spirit felt like he had been there before; he enjoyed the cozy ambiance and was captivated by the café's charm. The air was filled with the aroma of freshly brewed coffee, mingling with the gentle buzz of conversation permeating the room. It wasn't fleeting, though. It was a positive repetition that set the tone for the evening. The Spirit felt a profound sense of hope, as if tonight was different from other nights. Approaching the counter, he had a smile spread across his face. He said to the barista, "Un café au lait avec du rhum Santa Teresa, s'il vous plaît," with a hint of excitement in his voice. He ordered this drink every time. It was ideal for this time of year when the weather was cold. In the dimly lit café, a poignant scene unfolded, reflecting the intense emotions of this extraordinary gathering. Ernest Hemingway filled the room with his gray beard, exuding rugged charm. Surrounding him, the young "gang" members held court, their faces bearing tattoos and scars from their struggles and battles fought on the unforgiving city streets.

The conversation drifted through the smoky haze, blending past and present and forging an unexpected connection between two contrasting worlds.  Hemingway acknowledged the profound impact guns have had on gang members.  In the weathered writer, these resilient individuals discovered a kindred spirit who understood their conflicting natures.  The gang's weapons were a source of power and control in a world constantly challenging their lives.  These weapons gave them a semblance of strength and protection through their tumultuous existence.  But beneath the surface, guilt seethed—an undeniable truth they could not escape. The countless lives lost in the crossfire haunted their consciences, leaving scars that would never fully fade.  Hemingway, too, understood the weight of guns on the human soul.  Through his experiences as a soldier first and a writer afterwards, he witnessed the devastating effects of war.  The weapons that once filled his hands had penetrated the depths of his being, leaving scars that time would never heal.  He carried the ghosts of those he had lost, constantly reminding him of the devastating toll of violence.  

As they talked, an unspoken understanding began to develop. Despite the differences that separated them, Hemingway and the gang members found common ground in the profound impact that guns had on their lives. Through their shared experiences, they formed an unlikely bond, providing a moment of relief from the adversity molded by the destructive forces of the past. They yearned to break free from the chains that held them captive. And so, on that fateful night, they conceived a noble path - the Alcatraz Project - with the audacious purpose of bidding farewell to the arms.

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Botlle Waxing / Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

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Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…

The teachings and spirituality of Saint Teresa of Avila, a nun renowned for her devotion to praying for the most vulnerable, have had a profound influence on the Wollmer family, who own Hacienda Santa Teresa in the Aragua Valley, a key region in Venezuela's sugar industry. The family, deeply moved by her teachings and spiritual beliefs, embraced the principles that would later be recognized as corporate social responsibility, long before it became a popular trend.

Hacienda Santa Teresa is the home of "Santa Teresa," Venezuela's oldest rum brand, with a rich history dating back to 1796. Originally focused on cultivating coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane, the hacienda ventured into rum production in 1830 and has persevered through numerous challenges, including wars, revolutions, dictators, and even the ongoing pandemic. Although the company produces various rum, only one, the "Santa Teresa 1796 Solera Rum," is designated for exportation. This particular expression was introduced in 1996 to commemorate the bicentennial of the hacienda and is managed internationally by Bacardi Ltd.

Through their commitment to Saint Teresa's teachings and spiritual values, the Wollmer family has nurtured a brand that embodies tradition, resilience, and respect for its community and the environment. Hacienda Santa Teresa's enduring legacy as a producer of exceptional rum highlights the family's dedication to their craft and their unwavering belief in the principles that were inspired by Saint Teresa herself.

The brand has a long history of community involvement. The organization's most renowned endeavour is the ongoing Project “Alcatraz”. In 2003, a criminal gang unlawfully entered the Hacienda premises and launched a surprise attack on a security guard. When apprehended, the perpetrators were presented with an unconventional option:

“Either surrender to the authorities or engage in labour at the Hacienda to restate their transgression…

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Project "Alcatraz"…

In response to the ever-growing challenge of gang-related activities, the offer to establish Project "Alcatraz" was accepted, marking the beginning of a remarkable endeavor. Since its inception, Project "Alcatraz" has evolved into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to the recruitment and rehabilitation of individuals involved in criminal gangs.

Drawing upon a multi-faceted approach, this program employs a range of strategies to foster the reintegration of these individuals into society. One core aspect of Project "Alcatraz" is vocational training, equipping participants with essential skills and expertise necessary for employment and self-sustainability. Moreover, value formation plays a key role in instilling a sense of moral compass and social responsibility.

Recognizing the importance of addressing underlying psychological issues, Project "Alcatraz" also provides psychological counseling to its participants. By addressing the root causes of their involvement with criminal gangs, this counseling plays a pivotal role in guiding them towards positive and productive paths.

Formal education is another vital component of the program. Through academic pursuits, participants have the opportunity to expand their knowledge and develop a solid foundation for future success. By fostering intellectual growth, Project "Alcatraz" helps break the cycle of criminal activity and opens doors to new possibilities.

An unexpected aspect of the rehabilitation process embraced by Project "Alcatraz" is the involvement of its participants in the sport of rugby. Beyond its physical benefits, rugby serves as a powerful tool for instilling discipline, teamwork, and self-esteem. This sport offers a unique opportunity for personal development and camaraderie, contributing to the overall success of the program.

Since its establishment, Project "Alcatraz" has witnessed the participation of numerous young people aiming to leave behind a life of crime. Through its far-reaching initiatives, the program has successfully reintegrated many individuals into society, providing them with a chance for a fresh start. The unwavering commitment and dedication of the Project "Alcatraz" team have paved the way for transformation and hope in the lives of those previously trapped in a cycle of gang-related activities.

Looking forward, as Project "Alcatraz" continues to grow and evolve, it serves as a beacon of progress and renewal in the realm of gang rehabilitation. With its holistic approach and undeniable impact, this initiative stands as a testament to the power of compassion, perseverance, and the belief in the potential for redemption in every individual.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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“Sex", Madonna's banned book, which broke every rule of hypocrisy

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Image by Germán & Co

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Just Exceptional...

“Words fail to capture the resplendent magnificence of this particular rum fully. Its exquisite qualities transcend the boundaries of human expression, rendering it a true paragon of its kind. Indeed, it stands unequivocally among the most exceptional rum concoctions ever produced, enrapturing discerning palates with unparalleled flavors and nuances. Its profound impact lingers long after consumption, leaving an indelible impression that implores one to partake in its delights time and time again. Indeed, it is a gem of unrivaled brilliance, a testament to the artistry and craftsmanship that defines the realm of fine spirits…

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Primary source "El Pais", translation, adaptation, and editing by Germán & Co. Karlstad, Sweden, July 12, 2023

In a truly intriguing encounter that took place in 1991, a group of individuals hailing from various nations - an Englishman, an Italian, a Japanese, a Frenchman, and a Spaniard - found themselves gathered in a hotel room located in the bustling city of Frankfurt. Embarking on an adventure that might seem like the beginning of a witty anecdote, little did they know that this would mark the commencement of an extraordinary and unforgettable publishing endeavor, destined to leave an indelible mark on the literary landscape of recent times.

Bound by a confidentiality agreement, meticulously crafted to prevent the divulgence of its contents, these individuals voluntarily subjected themselves to an intensely stringent security protocol. The agreement necessitated undergoing thorough searches upon both entry and exit, ensuring a complete absence of cameras and any potential means of recording. Their mission? To meticulously survey a collection of striking photographs and captivating texts within the limited span of a solitary hour.
Amidst this clandestine rendezvous, one member of the esteemed publishing house, Ediciones B, assumed the role of informant. With a steadfast resolve, the Spaniard returned to the very venue occupied by her publishing company during the esteemed Frankfurt Book Fair. Determined to shed light on the enigmatic proceedings she had borne witness to, she divulged the nature of the captivating item that lay at the heart of this secret affair.
Bearing witness to the artistic prowess of none other than Steven Meisel, the renowned photographer credited with birthing the concept of supermodels during the iconic 1990s, the item in question housed a stunning anthology of explicit photographs showcasing the incomparable Madonna. This awe-inspiring collection belonged to a book, the creation of which was a collaboration between the illustrious musician and a scriptwriter, writer, and journalist extraordinaire by the name of Glenn O'Brien. It was through mutual connections, namely their encounters with the legendary Jean Michel Basquiat, that Madonna and Glenn O'Brien's collaborative journey commenced.
To elevate the stature of this publication, it was graced with the creative inputs of Fabien Baron, an esteemed designer renowned for his extraordinary talents in graphic design. Madonna, an iconic figure of the 1980s, made an indelible impression by skillfully blending pop music, religious themes, and subsequently, exploring sexuality in her immensely successful hit "Justify My Love." Fueling her fearless spirit, she fearlessly unleashed the boundary-pushing masterpiece "Sex" in 1992.

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The featured poster highlights the 'Erotica' album, which has been exclusively crafted for the Japanese audience.

In a detailed account provided by Sureda, it becomes clear that Madonna's team had specific design requirements for the book. The layout had to be faithfully followed, including using the same font and maintaining the original text's placement. However, some pages, particularly those with Madonna's handwritten notes and crossed-out sections, were forbidden from being translated. These pages would only appear in the Spanish edition's final epilogue. To further enhance the book's allure, it was published with a metal spiral-bound cover and a metal back cover, and it was packaged in cellophane, keeping its contents hidden until purchased and opened. Remarkably, despite the risks involved, Ediciones B boldly invested in the book back in 1992, a year in which they had already achieved significant success with notable titles like the sequel to "Gone with the Wind," 'Scarlett,' the Nobel Prize-winning work by Nadine Gordimer, and the groundbreaking end-of-century novel, 'American Psycho' by Bret Easton Ellis.
During a time when the internet was not yet prevalent, the book managed to generate tremendous excitement. Today, it's worth exploring why it was deemed so taboo. Perhaps it was because society was still relatively naive back then. Mark Snyder, a writer and public relations professional in New York, recalls his experience as a 16-year-old in 1992. He vividly remembers the book being wrapped in cellophane and sealed, only accessible through special shelves that required assistance from bookstore staff. For Mark, who saved up his birthday money and asked an older friend to purchase it on his behalf, the $50 price tag was a significant investment. The high demand for the book quickly led to it being sold out within weeks of its October release, leaving eager buyers unable to purchase it during the holiday season. Presently, Snyder and his friend Kenny Finkle (50), an author and drama professor at Marymount Manhattan College, run a podcast named 'All I Wanna Do Is Talk About Madonna'. In this podcast, they analyse and discuss Madonna's discography song by song.

Sarah Lee, a Madonna look-alike, posed with a copy of 'Sex' at a launch party in London. Photo: NEIL MUNNS

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Madonna, with cleavage and a stuffed sheep, looked like a German shepherdess in an erotic version at the launch party for 'Sex' in New York, October 1992. Photo: ALLAN TANNENBAUM

Reality often fails to live up to the imagination, and one's fantasies about forbidden books remain unmatched. According to rumors, Madonna had engaged in sexual activities with dogs within the book. However, upon investigation, it is revealed that the images merely depict a dog alongside nude individuals. The book showcases photographs of Madonna in a state of undress, frequently capturing her reflection in a mirror or portraying her being restrained by both men and women. It also explores simulated acts such as black kissing and showcases Madonna engaging in affectionate moments with celebrities including Naomi Campbell, Isabella Rossellini, and Vanilla Ice, her former boyfriend. Remarkably, the book embraces diversity by including representations of various races, genders, and sexual orientations. Within the written content, Madonna, adopting the pseudonym Dita in homage to German actress Dita Parlo, delves into a discussion about the female body. She states, "I adore my cat, for it encompasses the entirety of my existence. It serves as the breeding ground for both my most agonizing experiences and my most unimaginable pleasures. My “cunt” is an everlasting source of enlightenment.”

A discussion on the topic of consent…

Snyder said, "Madonna was well aware that her images catered to sexual fantasies, but she did not aim to create any pornographic content." "I believe the book effectively addresses the concept of consent. In this regard, the book extends beyond sexual activities by emphasizing that any activity based on mutual consent is likely to be a satisfying experience, which, as a result, promotes trust and freedom." Sureda explicitly states that he did not edit a book containing pornographic content. Despite its reputation, this is primarily an artistic book. The images show consensual sex, gazes, play, and nudity, all within a design and concept of erotic daydreams. During her promotion in 1992, Spain had the highest number of new AIDS cases: "I believe sex is still possible if done carefully, and masturbation is the safest form of sexual activity." That's the reason why it features frequently in my book. It is a collection of erotic fantasies rather than a guide encouraging promiscuity.

The promotion was successful. According to Sureda, multiple bookshops in Barcelona and Madrid opened the night before the book's release. "I recall seeing a queue of twenty people at the Virgin Megastore on Gran Vía in Barcelona." This achievement is notable considering that the book was priced at 7,500 pesetas. The cost was 50 euros according to the exchange rate; however, considering inflation, it would currently amount to almost 140 euros. The cost was set globally, with minor variations. In the US, it was priced at 50 dollars; in France, it was 36 euros; in Germany, it was 42 euros. To promote the book, Madonna gave television interviews at the Michelangelo Hotel in Milan, where she spoke with several European channels. The interview she gave for Spain would go down in history.

Where does Madonna put her thermometer when she has a fever?

"Who didn't like Madonna? She was Madonna!" exclaims Millán Salcedo on the other end of the phone. On Monday 5th October 1992, he was in Milan with Josema Yuste, his partner in the comedy duo Martes y 13, and a delegation from Radio Television Española (RTVE) to interview Madonna. It was to be the highlight of their new weekly show, "Seeing us". "A woman from our team watched the interviews and kept us updated while we waited our turn. At the start of the first interview, she came down in a frenzy and said, 'He's just punched the interviewer! Don't ask him about sex or Antonio Banderas!' And I'm like, 'Don't ask him about sex?' And I think, 'Don't ask him about sex when he's promoting sex? That's what we're here for.

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Madonna converses with designer Jean-Paul Gaultier while on a promotional visit to Paris for her album 'Erotica' and book 'Sex' in October 1992. Photograph: YVES SIEUR (AFP)

As per her recollection, Madonna appeared to be angry because she had barely slept. "Thank goodness I was out of the role then since Josema [Yuste] passed," Salcedo continues. "He looked at me and made me understand that it wasn't working," Salcedo explains further. After asking a few questions that Madonna answered vaguely, Millán scattered popcorn throughout the room, barked like a dog, and, in the most remarkable moment of the interview, he brought out a pair of huge panties, placed them on Madonna's head, and then jumped onto her sofa - despite it being forbidden according to the singer's requests - and started mimicking a dog by humping her. "I can't believe I'm being harassed!" she laughed. Salcedo remembers how she was probably the first person ever in the country, and from that moment on, she became charming. "Amazing! She transformed from being edgy to an incredibly beautiful being with big blue eyes that are beyond imagination. The entire incident took only four minutes. During the interview, she was asked, "Where does Madonna place her thermometer when she has a fever?" Referring to the title of one of Erotica's songs and a sketch by the Feber toy duo, the performance could be even better. Millán had intended to perform a reading of a couple of erotic poems, imitating Gloria Fuertes, while holding a fake copy of 'Sex'. However, the performance did not take place due to last-minute tension. Despite the setbacks, the performance still carries a Dadaist essence: two Spanish comedians presenting an incomprehensible act to an international star who mutters, "I think I'm having a nightmare" in bewilderment. Nevertheless, the interviewer seems to have pleased her by not bowing down to her fame, even gifting her a pair of panties and simulating intercourse with her.

We did it all with Spain in mind because the program was going to be aired here. However, she did not understand Spanish, we did not understand English, and the simultaneous translator did not understand either of us. Salcedo has not seen the interview again. He loathes it. He does recall, "When the cameras stopped rolling, while we were leaving, she kissed us, revealing her human side. I kissed her, gazed into her eyes, and declared, 'Madonna, I love you'. She gazed at me, appearing disarmed and fragile, and responded: Thank you.

Power in the context of sexuality, personal life, and politics

Mark Snyder and Kenny Finkle answer Madonna-related questions promptly and passionately, as they do on their podcast. Mark Snyder concedes that Madonna's Erotica era is among the most fascinating of her profession. Kenny Finkle adds that after the Blonde Ambition Tour, Madonna recognized her potential to go even further and address uncomfortable topics, having overcome several obstacles during the tour. Continuing his point, "This moment's wonder lies in the fact that a woman in her thirties realized she was at the peak of her beauty and power and utilized it to her advantage." Over the ensuing years, she remained beautiful, yet not merely in her physical appearance. In 1992, her body was of great significance, and Sex commemorates youth, pristine beauty, and the ultimate power - both personal and political - that stems from it." Mark concludes, stating, "The present generations are much more harmonious with this message." Additionally, Kenny claims, "That is the actual heritage of this book." The sexual freedom of today's generation is a legacy of "Sex".

Madonna paid a heavy price for her boldness. Although "Sex" sold 800,000 copies, Madonna's album "Erotica" received mixed reviews and was considered a minor flop by her standards. According to Finkle, Madonna covered up and avoided discussing this era on her next album. When she did, she displayed a particular fear. In the following years, Madonna became more restrained and kept quiet. Subsequently, Madonna appeared in musicals, adopted a spiritual persona, embraced cowboy culture, and became a disco diva.

Madonna appears in a scene from the 'Erotica' music video, which was released in the autumn of 1992. Image courtesy of the Everett Collection.

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Three decades later…

"Erotica" is considered one of Madonna's boldest and most innovative albums, featuring a somber sound and audacious lyrics that deal with themes of love, AIDS, and grief. In addition, "Sex" has become a cult object that has never been reissued and is traded on the second-hand market for prices as high as 700 euros. According to Sureda, it was a strategic decision. "It was a visionary product that inspired the trend of limited editions, which are now ubiquitous in the worlds of publishing and fashion," said Sureda. Furthermore, according to Kenny, "the limited number of copies produced and the absence of any subsequent editions significantly enhance its perceived value and contribute to the mystique surrounding that period."
Recently, Madonna has revisited the topic of "Sex," as evidenced by her Instagram account. Furthermore, she continuously discusses sex and displays nudity on Instagram. The wild blonde showcases her naked body on Instagram, talks about sex persistently, and does not dress according to her age. By doing so, she manages to elicit the same response as she did thirty years ago when she was younger. Kenny explains that as she did in 1992, Madonna continues to pave the way for upcoming female stars who aim for long-lasting careers and do not want to compromise their identity. Mark elaborates that Madonna considers it essential to incorporate all her prior versions into her current identity. "Why do women encounter resistance when they live, indulge in sexuality, and exult without inhibition?" In that regard, Madonna has much work to undertake.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

News Round-up, August 10, 2023

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Try to understand the controversy surrounding the Sahel region in a single paragraph

The Sahel region faces complex challenges including poverty, conflict, and climate change, leading to food insecurity, displacement, and underdevelopment. The United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS) defines the Sahel political region as a group of ten countries, including Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Nigeria. In the vast Sahel region, stretching across ten countries, a deep-seated resentment persists towards France, stemming from its historically flawed colonial policies. The arduous quest for a stable and enduring democracy in this area remains besieged by numerous obstacles. Amidst this delicate state of affairs, Russia has adroitly capitalized on the prevailing discontent by shrewdly engaging in arms trading and offering military assistance in exchange for valuable resources. The formidable presence of the Wagner Group has further complicated the situation. Consequently, in the case of Niger, France finds itself at the forefront, suffering significant losses due to the repercussions of its colonial past and the imminent threat to its vital uranium reserves.

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Most read…

Wildfires in Hawaii’s Maui Leave Six Dead as Evacuations Continue

Tourist town of Lahaina on Maui’s west coast among worst-hit areas; three fires still burning.

WSJ by Alicia A. Caldwell and Jennifer Calfas, Aug. 9, 2023 

Oil dips as demand concerns mount; eyes on US inflation data

China's post-COVID economy has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel and is virtually "impossible" to revive.

Reuters by Muyu Xu, edited by Germán & Co, August 10, 2023

Trump Is Spooked and His 2024 Rivals Know It

Donald Trump Pleads Not Guilty to 2020 Election Charges in Federal Court.

TIME bY PHILIP ELLIOTT, August 8, 2023

Ecuador declares a state of emergency after the killing of a presidential candidate at a campaign event

The victim, Fernando Villavicencio, a 59-year-old MP running on an anti-corruption platform, was one of eight candidates in the first round of the presidential election, which will are to be held as scheduled on August 20.

Le Monde Whit AP, published today at 3:38 am (Paris)

Fallout from the Putsch in Niger Anger Against France Grows in Africa's "Coup Belt"

With the coup in Niger, Europe and the United States are losing their last reliable partner in the Sahel as Russia's influence grows. The development could severely inhibit the West's ability to fight terrorism in the region.

Spiegel by Matthias Gebauer, Christina Hebel, Marina Kormbaki, Britta Sandberg and Fritz Schaap, August 9, 2023

Leaders of Amazon nations gather in Brazil for summit on rainforest’s future

Conclave represents handbrake turn in Brazilian government policy since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took power

The Guardian Tom Phillips in Belém, August 8,  2023

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Smoke and flames filled the air from wildfires on Lahaina’s Front Street in Maui. PHOTO: ALAN DICKAR/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Wildfires in Hawaii’s Maui Leave Six Dead as Evacuations Continue

Tourist town of Lahaina on Maui’s west coast among worst-hit areas; three fires still burning

WSJ by Alicia A. Caldwell and Jennifer Calfas, Aug. 9, 2023 

Six people have been confirmed dead after wildfires fueled by hurricane winds began burning in Maui overnight, destroying much of the popular tourist town Lahaina.

Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen said in a press conference Wednesday that it was too early to know how many homes, businesses or other structures had been destroyed or damaged. He said “many have been burned to the ground,” particularly in the Lahaina area on Maui’s west coast.

Three wildfires caused the damage and were still burning Wednesday afternoon, Bissen said. More than 1,000 acres of the island’s Upcountry, an agricultural inland area that includes Haleakala National Park, have been charred.

Evacuations have been ordered in 13 communities and towns and many roads closed around Maui, while roughly 2,100 people have taken refuge in shelters. State and county authorities have urged tourists to stay away from the region or leave Maui if they can.

Bissen said he didn’t know how the six people killed in the fires died and whether they were local residents or tourists.

Earlier Wednesday, smoke and fire caused people to flee to the ocean, Maui County officials said. The U.S. Coast Guard transported 12 people from the waters off Lahaina to safety.

Videos posted online show flames on both sides of a single lane of fleeing vehicles. Buildings, palm trees and cars are engulfed in flames. Others show wind-whipped walls of fire and smoke spreading through Lahaina. Devastated areas include Front Street, an eclectic road popular with tourists that is lined with shops, businesses and historic architecture.

Maui County officials said early Wednesday that all roads were closed in Lahaina. “Do NOT go to Lahaina town,” the County of Maui said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke issued an emergency proclamation Wednesday encouraging the suspension of all nonessential air travel to Maui. Luke, who is serving as acting governor while Gov. Josh Green returns from a trip, activated Hawaii’s National Guard to help with response efforts.

Ed Sniffen, director of the state’s Transportation Department, said Maui airports remained open and at least 2,000 people stayed in them overnight because they couldn’t get flights out. An additional 4,000 visitors were trying to leave the island, he said.

Hawaiian Airlines issued a waiver allowing travelers to receive a refund or change their plans without penalty. The airline is operating its full flight schedule and is working with the state of Hawaii to support the transfer of first responders and supplies as needed, a spokesman said.

Three wildfires were also burning on the island of Hawaii on Wednesday, though authorities didn’t report any deaths there.

Authorities said they had prepared for the arrival of Hurricane Dora on Tuesday, but not for the wildfires that followed. “We never expected a hurricane which did not touch down on our land would cause this kind of wildfires,” Luke said.

Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, adjutant general of Hawaii’s Department of Defense, said the wildfires were fueled by long-running dry conditions, low humidity and high winds. “That set the conditions for the wildfires,” said Hara, adding that he didn’t know how the blazes were sparked.

About 6,200 people were without power Wednesday in Maui, and cellphone service was down. At least 29 utility poles were knocked down amid the fires and sections of fiber-optic cables were also burned. Authorities said it was unclear how long power and phone lines might be down, but that the repair of fiber-optic cables could take a month or more.

Maui is the second-most visited Hawaiian island, after Oahu. In the first half of the year, there were nearly 1.5 million visitors to Maui, up 5.7% from the same period in 2022, according to the state’s department of business, economic development and tourism. Total visitor spending during that time was $3.47 billion, up about 25% from last year.

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A view of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea, January 7, 2020. Carina Johansen/NTB Scanpix/via REUTERS File Photo

Oil dips as demand concerns mount; eyes on US inflation data

China's post-COVID economy has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel and is virtually "impossible" to revive.

Reuters by Muyu Xu, edited by Germán & Co, August 10, 2023

Aug 10 (Reuters) - Oil retreated on Thursday from multi-month peaks hit in the previous session as higher U.S. crude inventory and sluggish economic data from China raised concerns about global fuel demand.

Brent crude fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $87.46 a barrel by 0408 GMT, after settling at its highest since Jan. 27 in the previous session.

West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) dropped 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $84.34, after settling at its highest since November 2022.

U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 5.9 million barrels in the last week to 445.6 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.6 million-barrel rise, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

U.S. crude oil exports fell by 2.9 million barrels per day last week, the steepest fall on record, to 2.36 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the data. But the market is going to expect crude exports to go up because of the U.S. crude futures and Brent spread, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

Weighing on market sentiment, the consumer sector in China fell into deflation, and factory-gate prices extended declines in July, as the world's second-largest economy struggled to revive demand.

"A 5% growth forecast from China, which looked way too modest to digest at the beginning of 2023 has started to look way too optimistic as China is failing to hold economic revival post-COVID," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst from Phillip Nova.

The market is awaiting July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States, due on Thursday, which will indicate the Fed's future monetary policy. Market watchers expected the CPI to show a slight year-over-year acceleration, while on a month-to-month basis, consumer prices are seen increasing 0.2%, the same rate as in June.

Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX.N) and Woodside Energy Group (WDS.AX) said on Thursday they are holding talks with unions to avert threatened strikes at gas facilities that together supply about 10% of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.

Concerns over LNG supply drove European gas prices to a nearly 2-month high on Wednesday and buoyed the demand outlook for diesel as alternative fuel.

However, oil prices remained supported by supply tightness worries as tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region could threaten shipment of Russian oil.

"Oil prices have been resilient to a weak economic showing out of China in recent weeks, with market participants choosing to place their focus on the tighter supplies conditions from Saudi Arabia and Russia's output cuts to continue their unwind from previous bearish positioning," wrote Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG, in a note.

Top exporter Saudi Arabia's plans to extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day for another month to include September. Russia also said it would cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.

Reporting by Muyu Xu in Singapore and Laura Sanicola in Washington; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman

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Illustrations by Germán & Co

Trump Is Spooked and His 2024 Rivals Know It

Donald Trump Pleads Not Guilty to 2020 Election Charges in Federal Court 

TIME bY PHILIP ELLIOTT, August 8, 2023

Back during the first months of the Trump presidency, then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich made a prescient—if not entirely original—observation about his one-time rival for the Republican nomination: “You don't put an animal in the corner without the animal striking back, [and] you don't put a politician in the corner … without them expecting to strike back at you.”

Kasich was correct in his assessment of Trump’s approach to leading Washington, and it’s a strategy that’s re-emerged as the ex-President faces increasingly urgent risks coming at him from all directions. Luck, it turns out, is a finite commodity. And a ginned-up gerbil can do more damage than a complacent cheetah. 

Trump is under indictment in three separate criminal cases and is out on bond. A fourth criminal case out of Georgia could come as soon as this week, and preparations underway in Fulton County sure look like prosecutors in Atlanta are bracing for a chaotic scene. The trials would derail Trump for weeks if not months at the exact time he would need to be pandering to voters. And, despite being atop the polls of Republicans looking to be the presidential nominee in 2024, the risks to both his frontrunner status and his freedom are real enough that it’s sending him spiraling in search of a distraction.

“IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” That’s what Trump posted on his Truth Social account over the weekend, prompting Justice Department lawyers to ask a judge in the case involving election interference to issue a protective order. The not-at-all-subtle warning was part of a litany of all-caps threats that brought to mind various unhinged stretches of posts when he used to frequent the platform previously known as Twitter. When Trump wasn’t complaining that he was a victim of a politically motivated prosecution (“WHAT THE DEPARTMENT OF INJUSTICE IS DOING TO ME IS THE SAME THING DONE BY THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD.”), he was going after the U.S. team for its loss in the Women’s World Cup, singling out star player (and Trump critic) Megan Rapinoe for an errant foot: “WOKE EQUALS FAILURE. Nice shot Megan, the USA is going to Hell!!! MAGA.” 

Sure, Trump’s social-media footprint has never been a particularly sophisticated logic-based realm. But for the first time since he joined the presidential fray back in 2015, Trump sounds genuinely scared, like he finally seems to be realizing his luck may be unique but not limitless. His knack for defying political gravity has been evidenced since his first campaign, when any other nominee would have been felled by the same series of missteps, scandals, and self-immolation; Trump instead somehow rode the fire-engulfed dumpster all the way to the North Lawn of the White House. 

Trump has long enjoyed lashing out at those he perceives as insufficiently loyal. No one has been immune, be they real challengers like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or just perceived threats, as were the cases of Pope Francis, George W. Bush, and Megyn Kelly. But these latest attacks, somehow, feel different in a changed environment that no longer guarantees fearful fealty from his rivals. Where he previously launched his rockets with abandon, he is now being more direct to respond to would-be usurpers.

To Trump’s credit, his reflex appears to be more tactical than in the past. 

Take, for instance, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the closest thing that Trump has to a rival for the nomination next year. While Trump enjoys a massive lead over the Anti-Woke Warrior from the Sunshine State, DeSantis has been working on retooling a failure-to-launch bid, and it seems like he’s rethinking his deference to Trump. In an interview that aired on NBC News this week, DeSantis for the first time finally stopped pussyfooting around whether Trump won in 2020. "No, of course he lost," DeSantis said. "Joe Biden’s the President." After more than 1,000 days of playing coy games and dodging any declaration about Biden’s legitimacy, DeSantis has finally concluded it is time to treat Trump like the man to dethrone.

DeSantis, who on Tuesday replaced his top political hand, had been walking the line. For months, the default has felt like a backhanded defense of Trump at every turn, living both in contempt and cower of the ex-President. But two weeks ago, during a swing through Iowa, DeSantis subtly jabbed his one-time self-considered patron. “I don’t consider myself to be an entertainer,” DeSantis said in Osceola. “I’m a leader. And that’s what you get for me, somebody that will deliver results.” The ceiling of the distillery where he spoke didn’t collapse, and DeSantis marched on. (Trump, naturally, told a conservative radio host that DeSantis should drop out for the good of the party.)

DeSantis’ footing—and Trump’s counter-punch—has seemed to grow stronger in recent days. Until recently, only former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has been an unabashed critic of Trump’s return to power, a lonely spot but one that is starting to have some pals testing its viability. After all, 78 looming felony charges gives even the most mild of candidates permission to at least raise the question of Trump’s true viability in a rematch against Joe Biden. “This election needs to be about Jan. 20, 2025, not Jan. 6, 2021,” DeSantis said in Waverly, Iowa, during that weekend bus tour.

Similarly, former Vice President Mike Pence—the one who spent four years as Trump’s loyal and self-censoring understudy—has started to rev up his critique of the ex-boss, and thus draw his ire. While Pence has hinted at his antipathy toward Trump and, in particular, his former boss’ conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, the intensity has increased of late. And not coincidentally, Trump has targeted more of his public attacks on Pence, as he realizes that his former vice president poses a real threat to his legal woes, given his first-hand access to the West Wing during the final weeks of Trump’s tour there.

Pence predicted Trump’s realization was coming, telling The New York Times on July 30: “I think we’re coming to a fork in the road.”

It’s more of a pitchfork, based on Trump’s reaction. “He’s delusional, and now he wants to show he’s a tough guy,” Trump sniped at his former running mate, who testified for more than five hours before the federal grand jury back in April and spoke candidly about the events before and during the Jan. 6 uprising. Should Trump move forward to trial, Pence may end up testifying—a development that could move the actual argument against a third Trump nomination away from the theater-focused debate stage and to a far more extraordinary courtroom testimony, one where Trump would have to sit in silence and hear his one-time loyalist turn over all of their secrets.

Trump’s allies have started to pick up on the shift, too. During a stop last week in Londonderry, N.H., hecklers stood outside the American Legion post and held signs calling Pence a traitor. Inside, skeptics asked Pence point-blank why he didn’t take steps to keep Trump in power, even in electoral defeat.

Unflinching, Pence said he followed the Constitution and, ever one to cite Scripture down to chapter and verse, urged voters in that lead-off primary state to look up Article Two, Section One, Clause Three.

Similarly, Trump’s best ally in the field vowed to find everyone involved in investigating Trump and fire them. The maneuver won Vivek Ramaswamy applause and tracks with his larger strategy of running against Trump while also being his biggest booster in the field. Other rivals, all the while, have picked up the House Republicans’ chorus that the Department of Justice has been weaponized by Biden and his cronies.

Elsewhere, of course, criticism of Trump has been a moderated rumble through the GOP campaign to this point. With the first debate scheduled for Aug. 23—and Trump’s participation an open question—the GOP will be watching closely if Christie’s open antagonism is no longer the clear loser of a strategy that it seemed a few months ago. The party remains loyal to Trump, but the sober reality of nominating a thrice-indicted ex-President is finally sinking in. And Trump, it seems, is starting to sense that and responding to the threats he had previously—and maybe wrongly—assumed were immaterial.

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“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.

Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy

“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.

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Image by Karen Toro/Reuters

Ecuador declares a state of emergency after the killing of a presidential candidate at a campaign event

The victim, Fernando Villavicencio, a 59-year-old MP running on an anti-corruption platform, was one of eight candidates in the first round of the presidential election, which will are to be held as scheduled on August 20.

Le Monde Whit AP, published today at 3:38 am (Paris)

A woman is assisted after being wounded after shots were fired at the end of a rally of Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in Quito, on August 9, 2023. STR / AFP

An Ecuadorian presidential candidate known for speaking up against cartels and corruption was shot and killed Wednesday, August 9, at a political rally in the capital, an attack that comes amid a startling wave of gang-driven violence in the South American country.

President Guillermo Lasso confirmed the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio and suggested organized crime was behind his slaying. Villavicencio was one of eight candidates in the August 20 presidential vote, though not the frontrunner.

"I assure you that this crime will not go unpunished," Lasso said in a statement. "Organized crime has gone too far, but they will feel the full weight of the law." Ecuador’s attorney general’s office said that one suspect died in custody from wounds sustained in a firefight after the killing, and police detained six suspects following raids in Quito.

In response to the attack, Lasso declared a state of emergency for 60 days throughout the country on Thursday, August 10. "The Armed Forces as of this moment are mobilized throughout the national territory to guarantee the security of citizens, the tranquility of the country and the free and democratic elections of August 20," Lasso said in an address broadcast on YouTube after a meeting of the Security Cabinet and other senior officials.

The announcement came as part of a joint statement with Diana Atamaint, the head of the National Electoral Council, who said: "The date of the elections scheduled for August 20 remain unalterable, in compliance with the constitutional and legal mandate."

Authorities said that at least nine others were injured in the Wednesday shooting, including officers and a congressional candidate, in what they described as a “terrorist act.”

The President also declared three days of national mourning "to honor the memory of a patriot, of Fernando Villavicencio Valencia."

Brave final words

In his final speech, before he was killed, Villavicencio promised a roaring crowd that he would root out corruption and lock up the country’s “thieves.” Prior to the shooting, Villavicencio said he had received multiple death threats, including from affiliates of Mexico's Sinaloa Cartel, one of a slew of international organized crime groups that now operate in Ecuador. He said his campaign represented a threat to such groups. “Here I am showing my face. I'm not scared of them,” Villavicencio said in a statement, naming detained crime boss José Adolfo Macías by his alias “Fito.”

The killing comes as Ecuador is rattled by rising violent killings and drug trafficking. As drug traffickers have begun to use the country’s coastal ports, Ecuadorians have reeled from violence not seen for decades. The sounds of gunfire ring in many major cities as rival gangs battle for control, and gangs have recruited children. Just last month, the mayor of the port city of Manta was shot and killed. On July 26, Lasso declared a state of emergency covering two provinces and the country's prison system in an effort to stem the violence.

Supporter Ida Paez said that Villavicencio's campaign had given her hope that the country could overcome the gangs. At the rally, she said, “We were happy. Fernando even danced. His last words were, if someone messes with the people, he is messing with my family.”

Videos of the rally on social media appear to show Villavicencio walking out of the event surrounded by guards. The video then shows the candidate getting into a white pickup truck before gunshots are heard, followed by screams and commotion around the truck. This sequence of events was confirmed to The Associated Press by Patricio Zuquilanda, Villavicencio’s campaign adviser. The politician, 59, was the candidate for the Build Ecuador Movement.

He was married and is survived by five children.

A critical voice against corruption

Zuquilanda told the Associated Press the candidate had received death threats before the shooting, which he had reported to authorities, resulting in one detention. He called on international authorities to take action against the violence, attributing it to rising violence and drug trafficking. "The Ecuadorian people are crying and Ecuador is mortally wounded," he said. "Politics cannot lead to the death of any member of society."

Other candidates echoed Zuquilanda in their demands for action, with presidential frontrunner Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution party saying: “When they touch one of us, they touch all of us." Former vice president and candidate Otto Sonnenholzner said in a news conference, "We are dying, drowning in a sea of tears and we do not deserve to live like this. We demand that you do something".

Villavicencio was one of the most critical voices against corruption, especially during the government of former President Rafael Correa from 2007 to 2017. He was also an independent journalist who investigated corruption in previous governments, later entering politics as an anti-graft campaigner.

He filed many judicial complaints against high-ranking members of the Correa government, including against the ex-president himself. He was sentenced to 18 months in prison for defamation over his criticisms of Correa, and fled to indigenous territory in Ecuador, later receiving asylum in neighboring Peru. Edison Romo, a former military intelligence colonel, said the anti-corruption complaints made Villavicencio “a threat to international criminal organizations.”

A context of political turmoil

President Lasso, a conservative former banker, was elected in 2021 on a business-friendly platform and clashed from the start with the left-leaning majority coalition in the National Assembly. A snap election was called after Lasso dissolved the National Assembly by decree in May, in a move to avoid being impeached over allegations that he failed to intervene to end a faulty contract between the state-owned oil transport company and a private tanker company.

Ecuador’s constitution includes a provision that allows the president to disband the assembly during a political crisis, but then requires new elections for both the assembly and the presidency. The country has faced a series of political upheavals in recent years.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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A demonstrator in Niamey, Foto: Sam Mednick / dpa

Fallout from the Putsch in Niger Anger Against France Grows in Africa's "Coup Belt"

With the coup in Niger, Europe and the United States are losing their last reliable partner in the Sahel as Russia's influence grows. The development could severely inhibit the West's ability to fight terrorism in the region.

Spiegel by Matthias Gebauer, Christina Hebel, Marina Kormbaki, Britta Sandberg and Fritz Schaap, August 9, 2023

It has been just a few hours since the gate to the French Embassy went up in flames, thousands paraded through the streets of Niamey and Russian flags flew under the hot Savannah sky. Boubaca Adamou is sitting in his small house in the Fada-Loubatou district with around 20 of his fellow campaigners, rejoicing in the destruction.

A 54-year-old teacher wearing a green shirt and khaki pants, Adamou is an anti-French activist and a supporter of the M62, a movement eager to expel all foreign troops from Niger. In his view, the July 26 military coup that swept democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum out of office was redemption. The mood in the room is cheerful, with the men sitting on white plastic chairs drinking tea, some smoking. They all agree that France has no place in Niger.

"Bazoum was a French puppet," Adamou says. He and his friends claim that the democratic elections won by Bazoum in 2021 were marred by irregularities and manipulated by the French. They believe that only France actually profits from Niger's uranium deposits and not the country itself.

Now, they believe, Niger's sovereignty is at stake. The former colonial power, Adamou explains, may have granted the country independence in 1960, but the French continue to subjugate Niger to this day. Corruption is rampant across the country, and that, he says, must come to an end.

6,000 Kilometers of Military Rule

On July 26, the spokesman for the Nigerien military stated that security forces had decided to "put an end to the regime" – allegedly because of the deteriorating security situation and bad governance.

It was the fifth military coup in Niger since the country's independence, but this overthrow is different from the previous ones. It is the latest in a series of such putsches: Almost the entire Sahel, a strategically important region of Africa, is now ruled by regimes installed by a coup, with six successful overthrows in the region since 2020. The area some are calling the "Coup Belt" stretches south of the Sahara, nearly 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles) long, from Guinea on the west coast of the continent to Sudan on the east coast. In Mali, where an estimated 1,500 mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group are stationed, and in Burkina Faso, Moscow has established itself as an important supporter of the new rulers, with both countries now positioning themselves explicitly against the former colonial power France.

And once again, following the coup in Niger, the question is unavoidable: What role might Russia and its Wagner mercenaries have played? And: Could the new regime turn to Russia? So far, the Nigerien junta hasn't suggested it will go in that direction. Shortly after the coup, it promised to honor international commitments – and on Friday, it ended military cooperation with former colonial power France.

In Niger, as in much of the Sahel area, France played a significant role until recent years. Paris released its African colonies into independence in the 1960s, yet it continues to exert massive influence to the present day through military and economic cooperation and close ties with elites. This intricate web of corruption and old dependencies in France's ex-colonies is referred to as "Françafrique."

Russia's Opportunity

Niger, like the entire Coup Belt, has now become a theater of geopolitical power struggles. Russia has emerged as the continent's largest arms supplier, sending Wagner mercenaries to autocrats in need. After Mali and Burkina Faso turned to the Kremlin, the French withdrew from those countries as well.

Representatives of the Russian leadership officially condemned the coup in Niger. But Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner troops, praised the coup in an audio message as the Nigerien people's righteous "struggle" against their country's "colonizers" and offered his services. The coup is a good opportunity for the unscrupulous entrepreneur to expand his business in Africa. And after his failed uprising against the Russian army leadership, he can prove to President Vladimir Putin that he continues to be of service to the Kremlin in Africa. Niger, with its rich uranium deposits, is precisely the kind of country that Prigozhin is keen to exploit.

Indeed, that is another reason why Western governments, including that of Germany, are extremely concerned following the coup. With Niger, they have to fear not only losing their most important partner in the Sahel, but also the last reliable one. Around 1,500 French and 1,100 American soldiers are still stationed in the country, and Niger is of significant geostrategic importance to the U.S. The American military operates several drone bases in the country, which it uses for reconnaissance missions throughout the region, including Libya and Sudan. Around 100 soldiers with Germany's armed forces, the Bundeswehr, are also stationed in the country. The European Union, too, has long regarded Niger as an important partner and Brussels has long been seeking the country's help in curbing irregular migration from Africa. Niger is home to a number of refugee camps.

Misjudgment in the West

In a strategy paper published by the German government this spring, Niger is still highlighted as a prime example of security and development cooperation. The federal government in Berlin viewed it as an anchor of stability in the region. Indeed, Germany spent years training Nigerien elite soldiers in a mission called Gazelle, which began in 2018 and ended at the end of 2022. Now, the Bundeswehr is organizing its withdrawal from Mali.

The German government's crisis team has met several times at the Foreign Ministry since the upheaval. And whereas the French are flying their compatriots out on special planes due to fears of violent attacks, the German government has only issued a travel warning.

According to an internal analysis, the anger of the Nigeriens is directed against former colonial power France and not against the Germans. One representative of the German government even expresses quiet understanding for the resentment against Paris. The source says the French continued to behave in an arrogant and patronizing manner in the region.

The Demise of Democratic Governments

Niger is one of the world's poorest countries. The elites have a reputation for corruption, and the state has no presence in many areas of the country, which ranks 189th out of 191 on the United Nations' Human Development Index. Furthermore, Islamist terror plagues the population, and offshoots of both the Islamic State and al-Qaida continue to spread in the Sahel. Still, unlike its neighboring countries, Western aid contributed to some improvement of the security situation in Niger in the past year.

"What we are witnessing is the demise of democratic governments in this region," says Alain Antil, director of the Center for Sub-Saharan Africa at the Institut français des relations internationales in Paris (IFRI).

In June, IFRI published a study on anti-French sentiment in many African countries, concluding that anti-French sentiment in the region is growing. But it is also increasingly being fomented and tapped by the political elites of these countries to explain grievances or their own failures. France has been turned into the scapegoat.

The study identifies another factor for the growing anti-French sentiment in the targeted propaganda spread on social media channels, a campaign which is financed and nourished by Russia. "Still, it would be a mistake to say that Russia in particular created the anti-France attitude in these countries in the first place," says Antil. "It was already there, but it was tapped and exploited by the Russians as well as by the rulers of the respective countries when it served their interests."

A Russian Disinformation Campaign

Since the passage of a law in April 2022 allowing the long-term deployment of foreign troops to fight terrorism, there have been several anti-French protests in Niamey as well. Experts agree that Moscow was not involved in the coup, but they say that Russian disinformation campaigns have likely influenced the mood among the populace.

The group M62, which also supports Boubaca Adamou, appears to have played an important role. According to experts, the group was long ago infiltrated by Wagner people, and its actions are supported by Russian propaganda.

Moreover, according to French military expert Pierre Servent, the movement pays participants in anti-French demonstrations and provides them with flags: Russian ones to wave, French ones to burn. In Mali, too, say diplomatic sources, the leading anti-French movement is co-financed through the Russian Embassy.

Power Struggles with the Military

The cause of the coup in Niger appears to be a conflict between the president and some of his commanders. Bazoum, it is said, didn't want to extend the term of General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the commander of his presidential guard. In addition, Bazoum reportedly rejected closer cooperation with the military rulers of neighboring countries – ties that many in the Nigerien military were in favor of. A short time later, General Tchiani declared himself the country's leader.

The situation has been escalating ever since. A week ago Sunday, the West African economic alliance ECOWAS announced it would use force if necessary for the reinstatement of President Bazoum and issued an ultimatum of one week for that to happen. That deadline passed with nothing but the scheduling of a meeting on Thursday of this week to discuss developments. The German government considers it unlikely that fighting will break out, an assessment is based on the fact that ECOWAS has no troops of its own. And the alliance's major troop contributors, such as Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire, are already at the limits of their capabilities, he said.

The military juntas in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which are already tied to Russia, announced they would interpret any intervention in Niger as a declaration of war. The military rulers in Guinea joined the chorus as well. It would appear that an alliance of the coup plotters is already forming.

Early last week, on August 1, France began evacuating its own citizens and other Europeans. That same evening, M62 began calling for the borders to be closed and for foreigners to be held in a hostage-like state until the foreign troops left the country.

A New Anti-Terror Plan

Then, on Wednesday, a Nigerien delegation visited the Malian capital of Bamak, followed by speculation that it might have asked for Wagner mercenaries to be sent. Mali works closely with the Russian mercenary group.

For Europe and the United States, the coup now raises the question of how to fight Islamist terrorism in the region in the future. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel has surpassed the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia to become the epicenter of global terrorism. Its data shows that almost half of the approximately 6,700 people killed in terrorist acts around the world in 2022 were located in the Sahel. In 2007, the region accounted for just 1 percent of such deaths.

The West must find new ways of preventing jihadists from spreading further in the region, says Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He says the international approach so far has largely been to fight them on the ground. But now, he argues, it is necessary to move to a containment strategy. "That means recognizing that the jihadist forces will continue to exist," he says. Some might think that means giving up on the Sahel. But how can you help in the fight against terrorism in the region if you aren't welcome?"

It's Sunday, July 30, and an aide to ousted President Bazoum named Adamou Amadou is sitting in his home in a white undershirt and chain-smoking. He would actually like to welcome all of the West in the country. He keeps looking at his mobile phone, which won't stop ringing, with an expressionless face. "The international community must remain strong," he says. "And if necessary use force to restore constitutional order in Niger." Only a minority of Nigeriens, he says wearily, actually oppose France. He says Niger needs its partners to survive. That the coup will set the country back economically by up to 20 years.

Niger, the aide sitting lonely and sweating in his quiet house fears, will now descend into chaos.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

---

Image by Germán & Co

Leaders of Amazon nations gather in Brazil for summit on rainforest’s future

Conclave represents handbrake turn in Brazilian government policy since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took power

The Guardian Tom Phillips in Belém, August 8,  2023

The leaders of Amazon nations including Brazil, Colombia and Peru have gathered in the Brazilian city of Belém for a rare conclave about the future of the world’s largest rainforest amid growing concern over the global climate emergency.

The environmental summit – convened by Brazil’s leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – represents a handbrake turn in Brazilian government policy after four years of Amazon destruction and international isolation under the country’s previous leader, Jair Bolsonaro.

Those who have flown into Belém for the meeting include Bolivia’s president, Luis Arce, Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, Guyana’s prime minister, Mark Phillips, and Peru’s Dina Boluarte. Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, pulled out at the last minute blaming an ear infection. The other members of the eight-country Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO), Ecuador and Suriname, have sent senior representatives.

“This is a landmark moment,” Lula tweeted on Tuesday morning as his guests were shepherded to the talks by police motorcycle outriders. “What we are doing in defence of the Amazon and its population is historic.”

The Peruvian president, Dina Boluarte (left) talked with the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Amazon summit meeting. Photograph: Ricardo Stuckert/Brazilian Presidency/AFP/Getty Images

At the summit’s opening session, Lula said the “severe escalation of the climate crisis” meant the need for regional cooperation was “more pressing than ever before”.

As politicians began to arrive in the sweltering riverside city on Monday, Brazil’s environment minister, Marina Silva, said: “We come here with the clarity … that the Amazon is drastically threatened … that we cannot allow it to reach a point of no return … and that it will be impossible to reverse this process if we work in isolation.”

Among the issues to be discussed at ACTO’s first such meeting in 14 years are a possible deal to halt deforestation by 2030 and joint efforts to fight rampant illegal mining and the organised crime groups which are tightening their grip on the rainforest region. Colombia’s president has been pushing for an end to oil and gas exploration in the Amazon, although Brazilian moves to develop an oilfield near the mouth of the Amazon River complicate those efforts.

A final communique, known as the Belém Declaration, is expected to be unveiled by ACTO members of at the end of the two-day meeting. Experts say it is likely to contain collaborative strategies for fighting deforestation and financing sustainable development initiatives, and the creation of a law enforcement centre in the Brazilian city of Manaus to promote cooperation among regional police forces.

The challenges facing the group’s members are almost as immense as the Amazon itself – a sprawling 6.7m sq km region that, if it was a single country, would be the seventh largest on Earth. As well as nearly 50 million people, the region is home to an estimated 400bn trees belonging to 16,000 different species, more than 1,300 species of bird, tens of thousands of species of plant, and 20% of the world’s freshwater resources. It is also estimated to contain more than 120bn tonnes of carbon, making it a vital carbon sink.

But over the past half-century, the advance of cattle ranching, logging, mining, soy farming and oil exploration has devastated huge swathes of the region, pushing it towards what scientists fear could be an irreversible tipping point which would cause the forest to die off.

Transnational mafia groups have also expanded their footprint, with one senior Brazilian police chief recently warning “criminal insurgents” could commandeer parts of the Amazon with dire consequences for the rainforest and its inhabitants.

Indigenous activists called for protection ahead of the presidents’ Amazon summit. Photograph: Filipe Bispo/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

In the days leading up to Tuesday’s summit, thousands of Indigenous activists gathered for a parallel summit in Belém to demand greater government support for their quest to defend the rainforest. The perils of such efforts were laid bare last year with the murders of British journalist Dom Phillips and the Brazilian Indigenous expert Bruno Pereira. Activists are also pushing for a pledge to protect 80% of the Amazon by 2025.

Campaigners voiced a mix of relief that Lula had brought an end to Bolsonaro’s era of Amazon chaos, and anxiety that Brazil’s conservative-dominated congress might prevent the president from enacting his ambitious environmental agenda, which has already achieved a 42.5% drop in deforestation.

“We know we have so many enemies in congress who don’t like us,” said Alessandra Korap, a leader of the Munduruku people.

Korap urged Lula to oppose oil exploration in the Amazon and take a stand against highly controversial draft legislation that would invalidate Indigenous claims to lands such groups could not prove they occupied when Brazil’s 1988 constitution was enacted. “This would mean the death of our peoples,” Korap said.

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Offshore Wind Runs Into Rising Costs and Delays

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Image by Germán & Co

Some troubled projects are raising concerns about the role to be played by offshore wind farms in tackling climate change.

NYT By Stanley Reed and Ivan Penn, Aug. 7, 2023

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“Vattenfall, a Swedish energy company, has for years been doing preliminary work for what would be one of the world’s largest offshore wind complexes, in the North Sea off eastern England.

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Now, there are questions about whether this project will ever be built. Last month, Vattenfall said it would halt the first of three phases of the wind farm complex, the Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone, which is projected to provide power for about four million homes in Britain.

Vattenfall blamed rapidly escalating costs for equipment and construction expenses, which they said had climbed as much as 40 percent over the past few quarters. The estimated price tag for the three phases has risen to 13 billion pounds, or about $16.6 billion, from £10 billion.

“With the new market conditions, it simply doesn’t make sense to continue the project,” Helene Bistrom, head of business area wind at Vattenfall, said during a video presentation. The decision led Vattenfall, which is owned by the Swedish government, to write-down more than $500 million.

Vattenfall’s pullback added to the widespread alarm unfolding across the offshore industry about rapidly increasing costs, due partly to supply chain issues and rising demand.

In recent months, several developers in the United States have sought to renegotiate power supply contracts, scrapping them in at least one case, and Orsted, a Danish company that is the world’s largest offshore wind developer, warned that a major project, Hornsea 3, in Britain could be “at risk” without more government support.

With interest rates shooting up, financing the billions of dollars in investment that go into these installations has also become far more expensive.

On Monday, the turbine maker Siemens Energy reported a net loss of 2.9 billion euros ($3.2 billion) for the April-June quarter, largely because of problems tied to “increased product costs and ramp-up challenges” in its offshore energy business.

“There’s very few projects that are immune to the inflationary impact,” said Finlay Clark, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a consulting firm.

---

Europe’s Shift Away From Fossil Fuels

The European Union has begun a transition to greener forms of energy. But financial and geopolitical considerations could complicate the efforts.

•  A Competitive Field: The E.U. is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but incentives offered by the Biden administration are luring companies to the United States.

• A Wind Pioneer: Henrik Stiesdal helped design the first modern wind turbines. A thousand patents later, he’s a green tech entrepreneur rolling out new innovations.

• Nuclear Power: Germany shut down its three remaining reactors, just as other European countries look to expand their reliance on nuclear energy.

• Ban on Gas-Powered Cars: Germany has reached an agreement with the E.U. to allow the sale of vehicles that burn fuels made from renewable energy past 2035, resolving a dispute over a proposed ban on internal combustion engines.

---

Rising costs for wind developers are a problem for governments in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. Many countries are counting on an enormous and rapid expansion of offshore wind to achieve a significant portion of their renewable energy goals.

“We are wasting time here,” Morten Dyrholm, group senior vice president for corporate affairs at Vestas Wind Systems, the Danish turbine maker, said of the industry’s problems. “We need to grow the sector quite dramatically.”

Mr. Dyrholm and others in the industry say the inflation problems are a warning sign that governments need to change their system of awarding offshore wind licenses.

The procedures for obtaining the rights to build wind farms vary in different countries but often involve an auction of seabed leases followed, sometimes years later, by agreements that set the price paid by power companies for the electricity generated.

These arrangements, designed to drive down power prices for consumers and, often, to maximize revenues from lease sales, should be broadened to take into account other factors, some industry leaders say. An auction for seabed rights awarded by Scotland in 2022 is cited as a model because it put greater emphasis on factors like the ability of wind companies to develop suppliers, and the experience of the companies.

The debate could open the way for more power deals with corporations like Amazon and Microsoft, whose data centers are hungry consumers of electricity. Large businesses might be more flexible partners for wind developers than government officials who tend to say “this is the rule,” said Deepa Venkateswaran, a utilities analyst at Bernstein, a research firm.

Renewable energy programs like Britain’s — which is designed to encourage financial backing by providing a guaranteed price to wind developers, and also to gradually drive down charges paid by consumers — attracted billions in investment when inflation was low. Now, in a very different world, after the disruptions of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Britain is taking fire for policies that could make wind projects uneconomical.

“I am afraid the U.K. has gone from being one of the best governments in Europe on offshore wind to one of the worst,” said Giles Dickson, chief executive of WindEurope, a trade body.

Turbine parts at Orsted’s pre-assembly site in Taichung Port in Taiwan, in March.Credit...Ann Wang/Reuters

A British government spokesman responded: “We understand there are supply chain pressures for the sector globally, not just in the U.K., and we are listening to companies’ concerns.”

The inflation problems are mainly hitting offshore wind farms in late stages of development rather than those already generating power.

Offshore projects can require a decade to progress from planning stages to generating power. That means agreements on issues like the power price may be years old before the turbines are in place and generating electricity.

That system worked when inflation was negligible and demand for turbines and other equipment was relatively subdued. Now, as a growing number of developers look to secure everything necessary to undertake the projects — from wind turbines, which cost millions of dollars, to the services of specialized construction ships, to bank financing — they discover that the price tags have suddenly soared. Mr. Dyrholm estimates that prices of wind turbines alone have increased 30 percent in the past year.

“The costs have risen, and you have a mismatch,” said Bernard Looney, chief executive of BP, which is an investor, with Equinor, a Norwegian company, in three offshore wind projects in the Atlantic that would supply power to around two million households in New York State. Equinor and BP have petitioned state authorities to renegotiate their power contracts.

Similarly, developers in Britain and elsewhere don’t seem to want to completely jettison projects. Many are trying to renegotiate the deals or push governments to alter the formats of future auctions. Some are terminating existing contracts to supply power to utilities and seeking new ones — or threatening such moves, figuring there will be plenty of demand for clean power in the future.

Walking away from contracts signed years ago has become “the prudent commercial course” even with the risk of financial penalties, SouthCoast Wind, a project part-owned by Shell that would be located in the Atlantic near Martha’s Vineyard, in Massachusetts, said in a statement in June.

Another Massachusetts proposal, Commonwealth Wind, which is owned by Avangrid, a U.S. subsidiary of the Spanish energy giant Iberdrola, has terminated its power supply contract and plans to seek a new deal in a future auction, the company said.

“The economics are challenging,” said Stephanie McClellan, executive director of Turn Forward, an offshore wind advocacy organization in the United States.

Equinor’s floating wind turbines about 25 miles off the Scottish coast, in 2021.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times

Despite the soured deals, interest in offshore wind remains strong. In a recent auction in Germany, BP and TotalEnergies in France agreed to pay around $14 billion over three decades for offshore tracts.

The German deals differ from others because the companies are simply paying for the rights to develop sea bottom, and they will negotiate what they get paid for the electricity at a later day.

Such deals are attractive to a corporate giant like BP, which has the financial firepower to make them happen and would be freer to do what it wants with the power. Mr. Looney said he hoped to steer away from the long-term power contracts, preferring instead to try to squeeze more value from wind-generated electricity by using it to make green hydrogen, a still scarce clean fuel, or charge electric vehicles.

“We’d like to do something with those electrons; take them and put them to use,” he said.

But there are only a handful of companies with the heft of BP and TotalEnergies. Whether nations can achieve their offshore ambitions through such commercial deals remains to be seen. Critics say that charging high prices for leases will lead to higher power prices for consumers.

---

Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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News Round-up, August 8, 2023

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Most read…

Offshore Wind Runs Into Rising Costs and Delays

Some troubled projects are raising concerns about the role to be played by offshore wind farms in tackling climate change.

NYT By Stanley Reed and Ivan Penn, Aug. 7, 2023

Climate Is Now a Culture War Issue

The issue of anti-environmentalism is undeniably influenced by true greed. However, climate denial has morphed into something more than just a battle against acknowledging the science of climate change. It has become a front in the culture wars, with right-wing individuals rejecting scientific consensus not only due to their general aversion to science but also out of a visceral opposition to anything that liberals support.

NYT By Paul Krugman, Opinion Columnist, Aug. 7, 2023

Biden Plans to Run on Protecting Democracy, as Trump Faces Charges of Subverting It

President Joe Biden speaks about his economic plan "Bidenomics" at Auburn Manufacturing Inc. in Auburn, Maine, on July 28, 2023.

TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT, AUGUST 7, 2023 

How a Former Oil Guy Is Using Fracking Tech to Boost Geothermal Energy

TIME BY ALEJANDRO DE LA GARZA, AUGUST 7, 2023

Brazil’s Lula pushes end to deforestation, stumbles on fossil fuels

Summit will be a major political and diplomatic test for the Brazilian leader.

POLITICO EU BY LOUISE GUILLOT, AUGUST 7, 2023 

Exclusive: Defying war risk, European traders store gas in Ukraine

REUTERS By Jan Lopatka and Marek Strzelecki, August 8, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

---

Image by Germán & Co

Offshore Wind Runs Into Rising Costs and Delays

Some troubled projects are raising concerns about the role to be played by offshore wind farms in tackling climate change.

NYT By Stanley Reed and Ivan Penn, Aug. 7, 2023

---

“Vattenfall, a Swedish energy company, has for years been doing preliminary work for what would be one of the world’s largest offshore wind complexes, in the North Sea off eastern England.

---

Now, there are questions about whether this project will ever be built. Last month, Vattenfall said it would halt the first of three phases of the wind farm complex, the Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone, which is projected to provide power for about four million homes in Britain.

Vattenfall blamed rapidly escalating costs for equipment and construction expenses, which they said had climbed as much as 40 percent over the past few quarters. The estimated price tag for the three phases has risen to 13 billion pounds, or about $16.6 billion, from £10 billion.

“With the new market conditions, it simply doesn’t make sense to continue the project,” Helene Bistrom, head of business area wind at Vattenfall, said during a video presentation. The decision led Vattenfall, which is owned by the Swedish government, to write-down more than $500 million.

Vattenfall’s pullback added to the widespread alarm unfolding across the offshore industry about rapidly increasing costs, due partly to supply chain issues and rising demand.

In recent months, several developers in the United States have sought to renegotiate power supply contracts, scrapping them in at least one case, and Orsted, a Danish company that is the world’s largest offshore wind developer, warned that a major project, Hornsea 3, in Britain could be “at risk” without more government support.

With interest rates shooting up, financing the billions of dollars in investment that go into these installations has also become far more expensive.

On Monday, the turbine maker Siemens Energy reported a net loss of 2.9 billion euros ($3.2 billion) for the April-June quarter, largely because of problems tied to “increased product costs and ramp-up challenges” in its offshore energy business.

“There’s very few projects that are immune to the inflationary impact,” said Finlay Clark, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a consulting firm.

---

Europe’s Shift Away From Fossil Fuels

The European Union has begun a transition to greener forms of energy. But financial and geopolitical considerations could complicate the efforts.

•  A Competitive Field: The E.U. is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but incentives offered by the Biden administration are luring companies to the United States.

• A Wind Pioneer: Henrik Stiesdal helped design the first modern wind turbines. A thousand patents later, he’s a green tech entrepreneur rolling out new innovations.

• Nuclear Power: Germany shut down its three remaining reactors, just as other European countries look to expand their reliance on nuclear energy.

• Ban on Gas-Powered Cars: Germany has reached an agreement with the E.U. to allow the sale of vehicles that burn fuels made from renewable energy past 2035, resolving a dispute over a proposed ban on internal combustion engines.

---

Rising costs for wind developers are a problem for governments in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. Many countries are counting on an enormous and rapid expansion of offshore wind to achieve a significant portion of their renewable energy goals.

“We are wasting time here,” Morten Dyrholm, group senior vice president for corporate affairs at Vestas Wind Systems, the Danish turbine maker, said of the industry’s problems. “We need to grow the sector quite dramatically.”

Mr. Dyrholm and others in the industry say the inflation problems are a warning sign that governments need to change their system of awarding offshore wind licenses.

The procedures for obtaining the rights to build wind farms vary in different countries but often involve an auction of seabed leases followed, sometimes years later, by agreements that set the price paid by power companies for the electricity generated.

These arrangements, designed to drive down power prices for consumers and, often, to maximize revenues from lease sales, should be broadened to take into account other factors, some industry leaders say. An auction for seabed rights awarded by Scotland in 2022 is cited as a model because it put greater emphasis on factors like the ability of wind companies to develop suppliers, and the experience of the companies.

The debate could open the way for more power deals with corporations like Amazon and Microsoft, whose data centers are hungry consumers of electricity. Large businesses might be more flexible partners for wind developers than government officials who tend to say “this is the rule,” said Deepa Venkateswaran, a utilities analyst at Bernstein, a research firm.

Renewable energy programs like Britain’s — which is designed to encourage financial backing by providing a guaranteed price to wind developers, and also to gradually drive down charges paid by consumers — attracted billions in investment when inflation was low. Now, in a very different world, after the disruptions of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Britain is taking fire for policies that could make wind projects uneconomical.

“I am afraid the U.K. has gone from being one of the best governments in Europe on offshore wind to one of the worst,” said Giles Dickson, chief executive of WindEurope, a trade body.

Turbine parts at Orsted’s pre-assembly site in Taichung Port in Taiwan, in March.Credit...Ann Wang/Reuters

A British government spokesman responded: “We understand there are supply chain pressures for the sector globally, not just in the U.K., and we are listening to companies’ concerns.”

The inflation problems are mainly hitting offshore wind farms in late stages of development rather than those already generating power.

Offshore projects can require a decade to progress from planning stages to generating power. That means agreements on issues like the power price may be years old before the turbines are in place and generating electricity.

That system worked when inflation was negligible and demand for turbines and other equipment was relatively subdued. Now, as a growing number of developers look to secure everything necessary to undertake the projects — from wind turbines, which cost millions of dollars, to the services of specialized construction ships, to bank financing — they discover that the price tags have suddenly soared. Mr. Dyrholm estimates that prices of wind turbines alone have increased 30 percent in the past year.

“The costs have risen, and you have a mismatch,” said Bernard Looney, chief executive of BP, which is an investor, with Equinor, a Norwegian company, in three offshore wind projects in the Atlantic that would supply power to around two million households in New York State. Equinor and BP have petitioned state authorities to renegotiate their power contracts.

Similarly, developers in Britain and elsewhere don’t seem to want to completely jettison projects. Many are trying to renegotiate the deals or push governments to alter the formats of future auctions. Some are terminating existing contracts to supply power to utilities and seeking new ones — or threatening such moves, figuring there will be plenty of demand for clean power in the future.

Walking away from contracts signed years ago has become “the prudent commercial course” even with the risk of financial penalties, SouthCoast Wind, a project part-owned by Shell that would be located in the Atlantic near Martha’s Vineyard, in Massachusetts, said in a statement in June.

Another Massachusetts proposal, Commonwealth Wind, which is owned by Avangrid, a U.S. subsidiary of the Spanish energy giant Iberdrola, has terminated its power supply contract and plans to seek a new deal in a future auction, the company said.

“The economics are challenging,” said Stephanie McClellan, executive director of Turn Forward, an offshore wind advocacy organization in the United States.

Equinor’s floating wind turbines about 25 miles off the Scottish coast, in 2021.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times

Despite the soured deals, interest in offshore wind remains strong. In a recent auction in Germany, BP and TotalEnergies in France agreed to pay around $14 billion over three decades for offshore tracts.

The German deals differ from others because the companies are simply paying for the rights to develop sea bottom, and they will negotiate what they get paid for the electricity at a later day.

Such deals are attractive to a corporate giant like BP, which has the financial firepower to make them happen and would be freer to do what it wants with the power. Mr. Looney said he hoped to steer away from the long-term power contracts, preferring instead to try to squeeze more value from wind-generated electricity by using it to make green hydrogen, a still scarce clean fuel, or charge electric vehicles.

“We’d like to do something with those electrons; take them and put them to use,” he said.

But there are only a handful of companies with the heft of BP and TotalEnergies. Whether nations can achieve their offshore ambitions through such commercial deals remains to be seen. Critics say that charging high prices for leases will lead to higher power prices for consumers.

---

Source: NYT/Editions by Germán & Co 

Climate Is Now a Culture War Issue

The issue of anti-environmentalism is undeniably influenced by true greed. However, climate denial has morphed into something more than just a battle against acknowledging the science of climate change. It has become a front in the culture wars, with right-wing individuals rejecting scientific consensus not only due to their general aversion to science but also out of a visceral opposition to anything that liberals support.

NYT By Paul Krugman, Opinion Columnist, Aug. 7, 2023

Understanding climate denial used to seem easy: It was all about greed. Delve into the background of a researcher challenging the scientific consensus, a think tank trying to block climate action or a politician pronouncing climate change a hoax and you would almost always find major financial backing from the fossil fuel industry.

“Those were simpler, more innocent times, and I miss them.

True, greed is still a major factor in anti-environmentalism. But climate denial has also become a front in the culture wars, with right-wingers rejecting the science in part because they dislike science in general and opposing action against emissions out of visceral opposition to anything liberals support.

And this cultural dimension of climate arguments has emerged at the worst possible moment — a moment when both the extreme danger from unchecked emissions and the path toward slashing those emissions are clearer than ever.

Some background: Scientists who began warning decades ago that the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere would have dangerous effects on the climate have been overwhelmingly vindicated.

Worldwide, July was the hottest month on record, with devastating heat waves in many parts of the globe. Extreme weather events are proliferating. Florida is essentially sitting in a hot bath, with ocean temperatures off some of its coast higher than body temperature.

A changing climate, a changing world

At the same time, technological progress in renewable energy has made it possible to envisage major reductions in emissions at little or no cost in terms of economic growth and living standards.

Back in 2009, when Democrats tried but failed to take significant climate action, their policy proposals consisted mainly of sticks — limits on emissions in the form of permits that businesses could buy and sell. In 2022, when the Biden administration finally succeeded in passing a major climate bill, it consisted almost entirely of carrots — tax credits and subsidies for green energy. Yet thanks to the revolution in renewable technology, energy experts believe that this all-gain-no-pain approach will have major effects in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

But not if Republicans can help it. The Heritage Foundation is spearheading an effort called Project 2025 that will probably define the agenda if a Republican wins the White House next year. As The Times reports, it calls for “dismantling almost every clean energy program in the federal government and boosting the production of fossil fuels.”

What’s behind this destructive effort? Well, Project 2025 appears to have been largely devised by the usual suspects — fossil-fueled think tanks like the Heartland Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute that have been crusading against climate science and climate action for many years.

But the political force of this drive, and the likelihood that there will be no significant dissent from within the G.O.P. if Republicans do take the White House, has a lot to do with the way science in general and climate science in particular have become a front in the culture war.

About attitudes toward science: As recently as the mid-2000s, Republicans and Democrats had similar levels of trust in the scientific community. Since then, however, Republican trust has plunged as Democratic trust has risen; there’s now a 30-point gap between the parties.

We saw the effect of this anti-science trend when Covid vaccines became available: Vaccination was free to the public, so there was no economic cost to individuals, yet getting vaccinated was widely perceived as something “experts” and liberal elites wanted you to do. As a result, Republicans disproportionately refused to get their shots and suffered substantially higher rates of excess deaths — deaths over and above those you would normally have expected — than Democrats.

Does anyone seriously doubt that similar attitudes are driving rank-and-file Republicans to oppose action on climate change? The other day my colleague David Brooks argued that many Republicans dispute the reality of climate change and push for fossil fuels as a way to “offend the elites.” He’s right. Look at the hysterical reaction to potential regulations on gas stoves, and while it’s clear that special interests were, um, fueling the fire, there was also a strong culture-war element: The elites want you to get an induction cooktop, but real men cook with gas.

The fact that the climate war is now part of the culture war worries me, a lot. Special interests can do a great deal of damage, but they can be bought off or counterbalanced with other special interests. Indeed, an important part of President Biden’s climate strategy is the idea that renewable energy investments, which have been soaring since his legislation passed, will give many businesses and communities a stake in continuing the green transition.

But such rational if self-interested considerations won’t do much to persuade people who believe that green energy is a conspiracy against the American way of life. So the culture war has become a major problem for climate action — a problem we really, really don’t need right now.

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“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.

Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy

“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.

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Image by Germán & Co

Biden Plans to Run on Protecting Democracy, as Trump Faces Charges of Subverting It

President Joe Biden speaks about his economic plan "Bidenomics" at Auburn Manufacturing Inc. in Auburn, Maine, on July 28, 2023.

TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT, AUGUST 7, 2023 

President Joe Biden was on vacation in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware when Donald Trump was indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election. As TV news anchors chewed over the meaning of the four felony charges, bringing the total number of criminal charges Trump’s facing across multiple investigations to 78, Biden went on bike rides along a scenic salt marsh, ate out at a seafood restaurant and saw the film Oppenheimer in a movie theater.

The next day, as Biden rode his bike past a scrum of reporters, one from the Associated Press shouted out, “Indictments?” The President kept riding.

Biden was adopting the same strategy for Trump’s third indictment as he had for the previous two: staying out of the way. White House officials say that Biden wants to avoid weighing in on Trump’s charges because he doesn’t want to influence the judicial process.

Yet those two earlier indictments were about Trump’s use of hush-money payments to cover up an affair and his handling of classified documents. The latest charges speak to the heart of Biden’s political message to voters in 2024: that the extreme ideas embodied by Trump and championed by much of the Republican Party pose a threat to American democracy.

Biden “will be measured in how he approaches all this given there are many ongoing court cases,” says Simon Rosenberg, a long-time Democratic strategist. 

In his first successful bid for President in 2020, Biden traveled to events with the slogan, “Battle for the Soul of the Nation” painted on the side of his campaign bus. Two years later, made the idea that America’s democracy was at stake a major part of his pitch to midterm voters, when control of both the Senate and the House were up for grabs.

He is preparing to employ a similar strategy for his 2024 campaign, while also emphasizing what he’s done to create manufacturing jobs and raise wages.

It’s likely to be a tight race. A recent New York Times/Siena poll showed Biden and Trump neck and neck in a possible head to head general election. 

Last November, Attorney General Merrick Garland named special counsel Jack Smith to lead the federal investigations into Trump in order to keep the prosecution of Biden’s chief political rival at arm’s length. 

Pushing back on autocratic ideas that undermine legitimate voting results will be a key part of Biden’s pitch to voters in 2024. But Biden may be hemmed in on how far he can go in pressing that point. Not only is he reluctant to seem like he’s cheering on the prosecutors, Trump and his allies have framed all of Trump’s legal problems as being orchestrated by Biden as a campaign strategy.

“The entire Biden Administration knows that I’m the ONLY candidate who would defeat Crooked Joe in a free and fair election,” Trump wrote in a fundraising email to supporters last week. “So, their only hope is to try and send me to JAIL for the rest of my life.”

Rosenberg notes that Republicans have already gone to the polls defending Donald Trump’s election lies and performed poorly. Every Republican candidate for secretary of state who denied the legitimate 2020 election results lost their races, he says.

“These issues were heavily litigated in the battleground in 2022 and it didn’t go well for Republicans and it’s not going to go well for them again in 2024 because Trump represents a far more clear and present danger to our democracy than he did even in the last election,” says Rosenberg.

This time around, Trump is running as a former President who is defending himself against charges related to his efforts to cling to power, including conspiracy to defraud the United States. While the prosecution will be an unavoidable issue in next year’s presidential race, it will be up to Biden to decide how much his campaign intends to talk about it.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Project Red, Fervo Energy’s full-scale commercial pilot project in northern Nevada, Fervo Energy

How a Former Oil Guy Is Using Fracking Tech to Boost Geothermal Energy

TIME BY ALEJANDRO DE LA GARZA, AUGUST 7, 2023

Of all the technological progress of the past few decades, there is a good argument to be made that a series of fossil fuel industry innovations that helped spark the U.S. shale oil boom have had the single largest effect on the course of global geopolitics, and the world’s biosphere. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking shifted the U.S. from being a net fuel importer to exporter—a realignment of the world’s strategic chessboard currently being demonstrated in the fleets of American oil and natural gas tankers helping circumvent Russia’s energy blockade of Europe. At the same time, all that new, cheap fuel helped prolong the U.S.’s carbon addiction for years, with incipient renewables unable to compete against natural gas.

But that drilling technology may yet have a climate upside. Last month, Houston-based startup Fervo announced the successful test of a first-of-its kind commercial-scale power plant, which uses the shale oil drilling innovations to produce zero-emission geothermal energy. While horizontal drilling allows oil producers to access new seams of fossil fuels, in Fervo’s case, the company is drilling sideways into hot, porous rocks heated by tectonic activity. The company then pumps water through those rocks in order to generate steam and produce electricity. Right now, its project in northern Nevada is capable of producing about 3.5 megawatts of energy, or enough electricity to power about 2,600 homes. Once the plant gets hooked up to the grid later this year, that electricity will be used to power Google data centers and other Alphabet operations.

Unlike solar and wind energy, which only generate energy when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, geothermal plants can provide a constant stream of power, which is crucial to balancing the grid. Currently, geothermal energy accounts for about 0.4% of U.S. electricity. But, like in the U.S. fracking boom, Fervo’s technology could make it feasible to develop geothermal power plants in many more areas where it wouldn’t have made financial sense before, a change that could help raise geothermal energy as a serious player in decarbonizing the U.S. grid.

Tim Latimer started his career in the oil and gas industry, before co-founding Fervo in 2017. He spoke with TIME about finding a way to use oil industry technology for the planet, and his vision for the future of geothermal energy. 

TIME: Can you tell us about how Fervo’s technology works? Why is it important?

Tim Latimer: Geothermal power generation has been around for over 100 years. The first geothermal power plant was built in Italy around the turn of the last century. All geothermal [power] kind of works the same way: you drill to high temperature geology, and then you produce hot water or steam out of wells that you drill into, and then capture that at the surface to create electricity. There's been plants built all over the world. It's a huge part of the electricity mix in places like Iceland, New Zealand, and Kenya. But traditionally, the struggle has been that you [have to] tap really hot, shallow, productive, natural basins to be cost-effective. But those sites got tapped [decades] ago, and we had to drill deeper to less hot places and less productive wells, and technology really didn't keep up. So the reason geothermal hadn't expanded was that once you cherry pick these geologic hotspots and try to move on to other places, the tech didn't exist to make it cost effective.

Traditionally, you would drill simple vertical wells, and you would flow [water] between injection wells and production wells. What's novel about our site is we drilled down about 8,000 ft., and then we turned and drilled horizontally for 4,000 ft. And then we flowed [water] from one horizontal well to the other across several hundred feet in that high temperature rock 8,000 ft. beneath our feet. That solves some of these economic challenges and allows us to go to deeper places and still make the economics work. 

What was the biggest challenge of making that oil and gas technology work for geothermal power?

Our geology requirements are quite a bit different. In the U.S., there's been well over 100,000 horizontal oil and gas wells drilled, but generally, those are in shallower places where the rock is softer, and it's not as hot. So it has taken a lot of work to be able to adapt the equipment. Our wells are much higher temperature—the project that we did here was nearly 400℉. We're also drilling through granite, and so that's much harder rock. 

What sort of new technology did you need to drill through harder rock and higher heat?

Some of it is better tools, like drill bits with harder surfaces, and motors and electronics that are built to deal with higher temperatures. And some of it is just better techniques. One of the things that we drove forward was a way of pumping fluid down while we're drilling that cools your drilling system more efficiently than in an oil and gas operation.

Where are these hot rocks that you need? How much more geothermal energy could your technology open up?

Our current projects are in states like Utah and Nevada that have good natural geology for geothermal, where we can still drill relatively shallow wells and get to high temperature [rock]. But we're not limited to those geologies. We're just starting there first because it's the low-hanging fruit. Principally, there's virtually an unlimited amount of geothermal energy. The world is really big, and the world is really hot. We've got billions of years of energy under our feet. It's all a question about how much you can access economically. We think with existing technology, drilling down to about 4,000 meters [over 13,100 ft.] is probably cost effective.

As part of the [U.S.] Energy Secretary's enhanced geothermal Earthshot that she announced last year, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory did a study looking in detail at the Western United States, and determining how much high temperature rock can you find at 4,000 meters [over 13,100 ft.] or shallower, and found over 200 gigawatts of [potential power] that was just in that shallow depth. That would represent as much as 20% of U.S. electricity supply, if we can develop that amount. But what we think is, as we expand this technology, we won't have to be just limited to the western United States. We can get so cost effective that we can come to the Eastern United States where we would have to drill deeper, but still make it cost effective. And so there's really no practical limit to how much geothermal [energy] there can be. It's just a question of how quickly we can get more efficient at drilling and repeat the results that we did in our pilot, and just continue to bring costs down every time we build a new power plant.

Was there a particular day where you got out of bed, and said, “I'm done with oil and gas, and I’m going to use this drilling technology for renewables instead?” 

I've always been really passionate about the environment. I love the outdoors. And so even when I started my career in oil and gas, it was something I was thinking about a lot. I'm from Houston. The oil and gas industry has been a big part of my life and my community. But the more I got passionate about climate change, the more I really wanted to start looking at new solutions.

There's two things that happened for me that were important. I realized that a lot of my friends, a lot of my family, and a huge part of our city all had our employment prospects tied up in the oil and gas industry. And I started realizing this energy transition is real, and if we're going to take serious action on climate, we need to make sure that there's something that Houston is doing. And not just Houston, but other major oil and gas places around the world. People in places where oil and gas is the primary economic driver need to find a way to transition. And so I wanted to figure out how somebody from the oil and gas industry could apply their skills to climate change. When I discovered geothermal, I felt really excited. This is a field that needs drilling engineers, but to produce a carbon-free energy source.

And then another thing for me was I lived in Houston during this series of floods we got in the 2010s. Year after year, we got these one-in-1,000 year events. Everybody knows about Hurricane Harvey in 2017. But for me, in 2015, there was a flood and they canceled my work. And I walked outside my apartment, and the road outside had 20 ft. of water on it. Everything was underwater. It was this moment where [climate change] went from being this thing that I was intellectually curious and about to being like, “This is not normal. This is a pretty urgent crisis.”

I ended up quitting my job just a couple of months after that to go to graduate school, and ended up pursuing this new geothermal path. I wrote in my application essay to Stanford Business School that my goal was to learn the entrepreneurial skills to launch a geothermal company that can take technology from the oil and gas industry to disrupt the geothermal sector. So it was a pretty calculated move.

I imagine that a lot of people you're working with also come from an oil and gas background, and maybe decided to leave because that industry is not really going to be viable anymore for us as a species. Does that play into recruiting folks?

Totally. 60% of the employees at Fervo come from a background in the oil and gas industry. Growing up here [in Houston], oil and gas is just a massive employer. I really get frustrated when people demonize the people that work in oil and gas. They are some of the best people. It's an incredibly diverse group with people from all over, and a lot of them are also passionate about climate change. We’re able to tap into that growing part of that workforce that is thinking deeply about climate change. If we want to deploy geothermal energy as quickly as we need to to actually have an impact on global carbon emissions, we need to recruit tens of thousands of people to come work with us. And so recruiting from the oil and gas industry is a major part of our strategy.

What does the future look like for Fervo? 

We're going into full deployment mode. Technologies like this only make a difference if we deploy them at large-scale in a way that can reduce carbon emissions and increase the reliability of the grid. Our next project that we're breaking ground on is going to be nearly 100 times bigger than our pilot. We're targeting a 400 megawatt project [in Utah] that we're going to be constructing over the next four years. And then beyond that, it's our ambition to unlock that full multi-hundred gigawatt resource that the National Renewable Energy Lab has identified. The goal here is to be 20% of U.S. electricity supply by 2050, and then to repeat that around the world.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Image by Germán & Co

Brazil’s Lula pushes end to deforestation, stumbles on fossil fuels

Summit will be a major political and diplomatic test for the Brazilian leader.

POLITICO EU BY LOUISE GUILLOT, AUGUST 7, 2023 

Under pressure from the EU to rein in deforestation or face trade restrictions, Amazon countries must figure out how to bring prosperity to the region without destroying the forest. And that’s proving difficult.

At a two-day summit starting Tuesday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is looking to corral countries to speed up efforts to stop deforestation and decide on a common strategy to save the rainforest.

But it's likely to be an uphill climb, with countries disagreeing on whether they should commit to a zero deforestation goal and on whether oil and gas drilling should be banned in the region.

The summit comes as the EU is rolling out new rules to ban commodities’ imports driving deforestation abroad and is asking countries to police their supply chains against environmental and human rights violations.

That's increasing pressure on the Amazon region — and particularly on Brazil, one of the largest exporters of agri-food products to the EU and home to 60 percent of the rainforest — to commit to ambitious action at this week's meet-up.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro has argued that phasing out fossil fuels is essential for the forest's protection. “Even if we get deforestation under control, the Amazon faces dire threats if global heating continues to climb,” he wrote in an op-ed last month, adding that “to avoid the point of no return, we need an ambitious transnational policy to phase out fossil fuels.”

But Lula isn’t pushing to phase out fossil fuels domestically, highlighting a tension between conservation efforts and ensuring economies stay on track.

The Brazilian leader told local media ahead of the summit he wants to “keep dreaming” about drilling in the region. His comments come as Brazilian oil major Petrobras is looking to open new fields near the mouth of the Amazon River despite receiving a negative opinion from the national institute for the environment.

If fossil fuels are kept underground, Amazon countries will need alternative activities to keep their economies afloat. Observers have suggested using this week's summit as a way to promote greener farming and sustainable forest management, as well as discuss potential schemes to pay farmers and indigenous people to help protect the forest.

“The bioeconomy is the key to unlocking the region's economic potential while preserving its ecological heritage and, as such, needs to be at the center of any sustainable and inclusive development plan for the Amazon,” said Vanessa Pérez, global economics director at the World Resources Institute.

Indigenous groups are also watching the summit closely, and want their contribution to climate protection, as well as their rights and territorial claims recognized by country leaders.

“It is not possible to plan the future of the Amazon without indigenous peoples, without guaranteeing our territorial rights,” said Ângela Kaxuyana, political adviser at the Coordination of Indigenous Organizations of the Brazilian Amazon.

High stakes

The outcome of the summit is a major political and diplomatic test for Lula, who has pledged to achieve zero deforestation in the Amazon.

Since taking office last year, Lula has stepped up efforts to crack down on illegal miners, protect indigenous groups and boost conservation efforts in the Amazon, with the government reporting a 66 percent drop in the rate of deforestation in July compared to the same month last year.

But not all Amazon countries are ready to commit to a similarly ambitious goal; Bolivia and Venezuela failed to sign a pledge made at the COP26 climate talks to end global deforestation by 2030.

Scientists have warned that the continued deterioration of the Amazon, a major carbon sink, is likely to have a profound impact on global climate efforts.

“If [Lula] doesn't come out of this summit with agreement from other countries that they also see this goal as important, it really undermines Brazil's efforts to reach this [zero deforestation] goal,” said Diego Casaes, campaign director at the NGO Avaaz.

The regional meet-up is also a key opportunity for Lula to assert his credibility as a climate leader both domestically and internationally as Brazil prepares to host the COP30 summit in 2025, Casaes added.

The outcome is "a test of how far Lula can go given the constraint that he has from the congress,” he said, given the Brazilian legislative body has pushed back against measures to boost policing and protection of the rainforest.

Scientists have warned that the continued deterioration of the Amazon, a major carbon sink, is likely to have a profound impact on global climate efforts | Victor Moriyama/Getty Images

European lawmakers will be looking for signals for how the region is preparing to adapt to new rules to police imports driving deforestation, tackle human rights abuses and green trade.

Under the EU Deforestation Regulation, imports of commodities like soy and beef produced on deforested land will be forbidden from 2024, while under the new corporate sustainability due diligence rules companies will be forced to scrutinize their supply chains for environmental damage and human rights abuses.

And although the trade deal between the EU and the Mercosur countries isn’t officially on the agenda, it will certainly come up.

That’s because the EU is currently negotiating a sustainability addendum to the trade deal with his Latin American counterparts, which should give reassurances — notably to France — the agreement will not have negative consequences on the environment and worsen deforestation.

The summit is an opportunity to see whether Amazon countries "are able to coordinate efforts" and to ensure policies related to the forest "are aligned with [global] climate goals," said Caseas.

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Pressure gauges, pipes and valves are pictured at an "Dashava" underground gas storage facility near Striy, Ukraine May 28, 2015. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich//File Photo

Exclusive: Defying war risk, European traders store gas in Ukraine

REUTERS By Jan Lopatka and Marek Strzelecki, August 8, 2023

PRAGUE/WARSAW, Aug 8 (Reuters) - European gas traders have begun storing natural gas in Ukraine to take advantage of lower prices and available capacity there, regardless of the risks from the ongoing war, three traders and company officials said.

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, begun in February last year, the European Union (EU) has sought high levels of gas storage to compensate for reduced Russian supply, especially during the peak demand winter months.

The bloc is expected to reach a target of filling its storage facilities to 90% full by Nov. 1.

Traders said there was commercial logic in storage in Ukraine, in addition to on EU soil, to take advantage of cheaper prices now versus for future delivery.

Gas for September delivery is priced at 30 euros ($32.96) per MWh compared with forward prices for first quarter of 2024 at 49 euros, according to prices from the TTF Dutch gas futures market.

Czech EPH group told Reuters its decision to use Ukrainian storage was also a sign of confidence in the country.

"EP Commodities transports natural gas to Ukraine and uses Ukrainian gas storage facilities," Miroslav Hasko, chairman at EPH's EP Commodities, said.

"We believe in the reliability of the Ukraine’s gas transport and storage systems, which proved themselves even in such an immensely difficult wartime situation."

He did not disclose volumes.

EU countries' gas storage facilities were 87% full on Aug. 7, according to transparency platform GIE.

"We see a positive trend in gas injection by foreign traders into our (storage) facilities," said Ukriane's state-owned Ukrtransgas, part of Naftogaz Group.

Naftotgaz said foreign customers could use more than 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of storage of the country's around 30 bcm capacity, mostly in the country's west, which is far from the front lines.

Slovakia state-owned SPP, which supplies most of the Slovak market, in part with Russian gas, said it was looking at the possibility of using Ukrainian storage given Slovak storage was already 90% full.

"We consider gas storage in Ukraine as one of the interesting business opportunities that we are currently considering," SPP told Reuters.

Other European traders said there are risks due to possible military strikes or questions over what happens to the network if Russia stops pumping the gas it still sends westward via Ukraine.

"Imagine a well-targeted missile hits a compressor station or some other infrastructure. You have to take that risk," said Martin Pich, head of trading at Czech firm MND.

He said volumes at current spreads may not be large but could pick up if spot prices drop. He did not comment on MND's trading.

The Bruegel think tank said last month Ukraine could increase Europe's storage capacity by about 10%.

"Utilising the extra 100 TWh capacity available in Ukraine will provide a nice boost to Europe’s winter outlook, and a welcome boost to Ukraine’s income," Bruegel said.

Gas for storage in Ukraine can be purchased anywhere and pumped using real or virtual flows in pipelines from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.

Nominations have risen for the pipeline that transports Russian gas from Ukraine to Slovakia at the Velke Kapusany border for flows into Ukraine - virtual reverse flows. They have been up to 10 mcm per day since July.

Physical flows from Slovakia into Ukraine also started in August through the Budince point with daily volumes of around 17 mcm.

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News Round-up, August 7, 2023

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Latest news:

“China shows it is 'not backing Russian aggression'; Peskov denies comment about Putin re-election. China's attendance at peace talks in Saudi Arabia show it is not backing Vladimir Putin's aggression, an analyst has told Sky News - but the talks conclude without concrete plan to end the war.

Sky News Now

Most read…

U.S. lab says it repeated fusion energy feat — with higher yield

Scientists are striving to harness the potential of fusion energy, yet they still face significant challenges.

TWP By Ben Brasch, Kyle Rempfer and Shannon Osaka, August 6, 2023 

Big Oil’s Talent Crisis: High Salaries Are No Longer Enough

Energy companies scramble to attract engineers as young workers fret over climate and job security

WSJ By Mari Novik, and Collin Eaton, Aug. 6, 2023

Rising Money Flows, Fueled by Record Migration, Prop Up Autocrats

Remittances to the developing world hit record $647 billion, aiding the poor but helping keep strongmen from Nicaragua to Tajikistan in power African migrants recently sailed in a wooden boat in the Mediterranean Sea toward Europe.

WSJ by Ryan Dubé, Aug. 6, 2023

“Pope” calls for action on migrant deaths calling the Mediterranean 'a cemetery'

Euronews Digital  with AP, AFP, EVN, August 7, 2023

Colombia in —Petrified State—

The initial year of Gustavo Petro's administration has been full of ups and downs, with the government demonstrating both boldness in breaking paradigms and disappointing periods, creating a sense of freefall.

"El Pais", written by Maria Jimena Duzan on August 7, 2023/ Translations and English editions provided by Germán & Co.

Siemens Energy books $2.4 billion in charges on wind turbines

A significant increase in its net loss for 2023, projecting a more than six-fold jump to 4.5 billion euros.

Reuters By Christoph Steitz and Alexander Hübner, August 7, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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An illustration provided by the National Ignition Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory depicts a target pellet inside a hohlraum capsule with laser beams entering through openings on either end. The beams compress and heat the target to the necessary conditions for nuclear fusion to occur. (AP)

U.S. lab says it repeated fusion energy feat — with higher yield

Scientists are striving to harness the potential of fusion energy, yet they still face significant challenges.

TWP By Ben Brasch, Kyle Rempfer and Shannon Osaka, August 6, 2023 

A group of U.S. scientists say they have repeated their landmark energy feat — a nuclear fusion reaction that produces more energy than is put into it. But this time, they say the experiment produced an even higher energy yield than one in December that got international attention for making a major step forward toward the long elusive goal of producing energy through fusion.

This second achievement by researchers at the federal Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California is another crucial step — albeit in a journey that may still take decades to complete — in the quest for an unlimited source of cheap and clean power. The successful effort was initially reported by the Financial Times on Sunday.

“We have continued to perform experiments to study this exciting new scientific regime. In an experiment conducted on July 30, we repeated ignition at (the National Ignition Facility),” Paul Rhien, a spokesman for the federal laboratory, said in a emailed statement. “Analysis of those results is underway, but we can confirm the experiment produced a higher yield than the December test.”

Rhien said the lab “won’t be discussing further details” of the July experiment until after more analysis. But the team plans to “share the results at scientific conferences and peer-reviewed publications as part of our normal process for communicating scientific results.”

What you need to know about the U.S. fusion energy breakthrough

Right now, nuclear power plants use fission, which creates energy by splitting atoms — the science at the center of the current blockbuster “Oppenheimer.” While nuclear power produces bountiful clean energy, it has long drawn concerns over safety, though it is getting renewed attention amid an international push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow global warming.

Fusion, on the other hand, creates energy by merging atoms together. It’s long been a dream because it could create limitless clean energy without the radioactive byproducts of nuclear power or the risk of meltdown. Plus, the fuel to make fusion happen is simply heavy hydrogen atoms, which can be found in something that Earth has in abundance: seawater. No mining of uranium is required.

Researchers have produced fusion reactions before, but it has taken more energy to cause the reaction than they could get back. The key thing about these last two experiments is that they get more energy back than they put in to create the reaction. That efficiency has been the elusive holy grail of fusion research.

(Still, it is limited in the sense that they are considering the amount of energy required to power lasers that were used to smush the hydrogen atoms together — not the power that’s necessary to make the whole project work.)

The White House praised the work at the time of the first breakthrough in December.

“This is such a wonderful example of a possibility realized, a scientific milestone achieved, and a road ahead to the possibilities for clean energy,” Arati Prabhakar, the White House science adviser, said during a news conference.

U.S. announces milestone on fusion energy, sparking hopes for clean power

Still, scientists are far away from using the energy produced by fusion.

Researchers can only create a fusion reaction about once a day because they have to let the lasers cool and replace the fuel target. But a commercially viable fusion plant would need to be able to do it several times per second, Dennis Whyte, director of the Plasma Science and Fusion Center at MIT, previously told The Washington Post.

“Once you’ve got scientific viability,” he said, “you’ve got to figure out engineering viability.”

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Source: www.energyportal.eu 

Big Oil’s Talent Crisis: High Salaries Are No Longer Enough

Energy companies scramble to attract engineers as young workers fret over climate and job security

WSJ By Mari Novik, and Collin Eaton, Aug. 6, 2023

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“The Shrinking Pool of Petroleum Engineers

energyportal.eu By Howard Rhodes, AUG 6, 2023

…European universities, which have traditionally provided engineers for companies operating in the Middle East and Asia, are also witnessing a decline in interest.

The decrease in interest from students and high-skilled workers is primarily driven by concerns about the industry’s impact on climate change and the long-term job security. As global economies transition away from fossil fuels, many individuals are wary of choosing a career path that may become obsolete. This shift in perspective marks a departure from previous cycles, where the industry’s workforce fluctuated with oil prices.

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Good news from the oil patch: Jobs are plentiful and salaries are soaring. 

The bad news is that young people still aren’t interested.

Even as oil-and-gas companies post record profits, the industry is facing a worsening talent drought.

At U.S. colleges, the pool of new entrants for petroleum-engineering programs has shrunk to its smallest size since before the fracking boom began more than a decade ago. European universities, which have historically provided many of the engineers for companies with operations across the Middle East and Asia, are seeing similar trends. 

Diverging Paths

Numbers of U.S. undergraduate students studying petroleum engineering have traditionally fluctuated with the price of oil, but that hasn't been the case recently.

Change since 1990

Source: Lloyd Heinze/ *Brent crude spot price a barrel, annual average.

Students and high-skilled young workers are concerned about the industry’s role in climate change, as well as long-term job security given that global economies are transitioning away from fossil fuels to other energy sources, according to executives, analysts and professors. 

The trend is a stark departure from previous cycles, when the industry’s workforce ebbed and flowed with the rise and fall of oil prices.

Between 2016 and 2021—a period when the Brent crude price nearly doubled—the number of petroleum-engineering graduates more than halved, according to the U.S. Department of Education. 

The number of undergraduates pursuing petroleum engineering has dropped 75% since 2014, according to Lloyd Heinze, a Texas Tech University professor. 

It is a trend that has continued even as other recent studies have shown that the average graduate earns 40% more than a peer with a computer science degree.

That puts students, including Hayden Gregg, in high demand. 

The 21-year-old Kansas City, Mo., native is studying petroleum engineering at Colorado School of Mines. His graduating class of 36 students is down from around 200 in the years before oil prices collapsed in the mid-2010s, according to a college official. 

Encouraged by his roommates and a visit to the oil-and-gas heartland of Texas, he became convinced that the industry offers a range of engineering possibilities as it transitions to a broader mix of energy sources.

“Even if oil and gas is going away, I can deploy my skills in other engineering fields,” he said.

Jennifer Miskimins, head of the petroleum engineering department at Colorado School of Mines, said Gregg’s graduating class is benefiting from a pickup in oil-industry hiring and many have gotten good internships. “They’re a hot commodity,” she said. “I think this class is going to be sitting pretty.” 

Oil-and-gas companies are pouring money into fellowships and other programs designed to cultivate a new generation of talent. Much of the focus is on white-collar careers that tend to attract college graduates, but the trend is broadly true among the industry’s blue-collar workers as well.

A big part of the pitch is that the industry is increasingly dynamic and creative, requiring employees who can run carbon capture, hydrogen and geothermal projects, said Barbara Burger, who served in several leadership roles at Chevron and is now a senior adviser at investment bank Lazard.

Part of the challenge, she said, is that there are more startups and fast-growing companies in those fields that don’t carry the same baggage as the giants that earn most of their profits from fossil fuels.

“There’s competition in a way that probably wasn’t there 15 years ago,” she said. 

Burger recently attended an event hosted by Fervo Energy, a startup that uses the shale boom’s horizontal drilling and fracking techniques to develop geothermal wells for electricity generation. Around 60% of Fervo’s employees previously worked at oil-and-gas outfits, the company said.

To attract workers, she said, oil-and-gas companies need to better articulate their energy transition strategies, including efforts to carve out new businesses or curb emissions. 

“That’s a hook for employees—current and future,” Burger said. “They want to know there’s a future in the actual companies, the industries and the skill sets they have.”

The talent shortage represents a long-term problem at a moment when energy security—largely dependent on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future—is increasingly a global priority. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, Europe has become desperate for new supplies of oil and gas, though countries around the world are trying to keep fuel affordable.

Darian Kane-Stolz said that growing up in New York, she was always concerned with climate change. She taught neighbors how to recycle. 

When Kane-Stolz, 25, enrolled at the University of Texas at Austin seven years ago, she felt that joining the petroleum-engineering program was consistent with her desire to have a positive impact on the planet.

Now a BP engineer bringing wells online in the Gulf of Mexico, she said the attitude toward the industry has drastically shifted within her cohort. Before she goes out with friends, she sometimes prepares talking points in case someone attacks the industry.

“There’s definitely a negative perception out there,” said Kane-Stolz.

BP this year launched a new $4 million fellowship program with U.S. universities to provide students with exposure to the energy industry. It also said last year that it planned to double the size of its apprenticeship program to 2,000 people this decade. 

“To achieve our goal of reimagining energy, we need the brightest talent,” said a BP spokesperson.

Meanwhile, Kane-Stolz’s alma mater, the University of Texas, is working on adding a new master’s degree without the word “petroleum” to capture a broader group of students who still want to work in energy-related engineering, said Jon E. Olson, the department chair of petroleum and geoscience at UT. 

Other universities are ending their petroleum engineering degrees or rebranding them. Imperial College London—formerly housing the Royal School of Mines—shut its program last year and replaced it with one in geo-energy with machine learning and data science. 

Analysts and company officials say a steady flow of talent is critical to company efforts to build out infrastructure needed to curb emissions and develop clean-energy and low-carbon businesses.

“One of the scarcest resources at the moment seems to be people,” said Aslak Hellestø, a business adviser for Northern Lights, a carbon capture and storage project off the coast of Norway operated by European energy companies Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies.

“This is groundbreaking technology and we cannot afford to try and fail,” he said. “We need young people with new ideas and bright minds to make it right the first time.”

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“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.

Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy

“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.

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African migrants recently sailed in a wooden boat in the Mediterranean Sea toward Europe. JOAN MATEU PARRA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Rising Money Flows, Fueled by Record Migration, Prop Up Autocrats

Remittances to the developing world hit record $647 billion, aiding the poor but helping keep strongmen from Nicaragua to Tajikistan in power African migrants recently sailed in a wooden boat in the Mediterranean Sea toward Europe.

WSJ by Ryan Dubé, Aug. 6, 2023

LIMA, Peru—More people than ever are migrating worldwide, with millions of people sending home record amounts of cash that fund small businesses in Uganda and feed families from Ecuador to Nepal. 

But the remittances also provide critical support to fragile states and autocratic regimes which rely on money earned by their citizens abroad to keep their economies afloat.

In Venezuela, a third of households depend on money transferred home from the more than 7.3 million migrants who fled the country’s economic collapse, according to the Inter-American Dialogue policy group in Washington. In Central Asia, where many former Soviet officials rule, migrants send so much money that the funds cover their nations’ trade deficits, economists say. In Nicaragua, remittances have become so vital to the tax revenue of President Daniel Ortega’s regime that some economists say reducing the flow of the funds would be a form of political resistance. 

“If you didn’t have remittances, the national economy would collapse,” said Enrique Sáenz, an exiled Nicaraguan economist. “And in macroeconomic terms, Ortega would be in deep trouble.”

The growing flow of money creates a challenge for reformers seeking to exert economic pressure on autocratic leaders. But limiting remittances would hurt the vulnerable families of migrants who remain back home and reliant on money transfers.

“Remittances are one of the most difficult issues we can deal with,” said Ryan Berg, a political scientist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Nobody really wants to touch that issue because who would ever, from a policy standpoint, try to interfere with remittances as a point of pressuring dictatorships when we all know people are suffering.”

Since 2010, remittances to the developing world have nearly doubled, rising to a record $647 billion last year, more than foreign direct investments to those countries and more than international development aid, according to the World Bank. 

In Nepal, a young and fragile democracy where remittances account for close to a quarter of GDP, inflows from migrant workers have helped keep a lid on bubbling anger at the government over its handling of the pandemic and a recent recession, said Jeevan Baniya, an expert on migration at the Kathmandu-based research institute Social Science Baha. 

“Had it not been for the inflow of remittances, we would have likely experienced some kind of social or political upheaval,” Baniya said. “Remittances end up reinforcing the existing power structure.” 

In Egypt, money sent by migrants provides three times more revenue than the government takes in from the state-owned Suez Canal, while remittances to Mexico surpassed the dollars generated by international tourism and oil exports. 

 “Remittances have become a financial lifeline for developing countries,” said Dilip Ratha, a World Bank economist and remittances expert.

The millions of money transfers a year, each one often just a few hundred dollars at a time, are being spurred by soaring migration to the U.S. and Europe since the Covid-19 pandemic. Migrants are arriving in affluent countries that have labor shortages, allowing them to find higher-paying jobs and send more money home. 

Some economists say that if remittances become too big, they can hurt longer-term development and create governance problems. 

Connel Fullenkamp, a Duke University economist, said remittances can start to become problematic once they go above 5% to 10% of a nation’s gross domestic product. The money can reduce incentives to work for those who receive the funds, he said. They can also curb demands on the government to fix domestic problems that cause migration in the first place.

“If you get remittances, it causes you to care less about what is really going on in your own backyard, because you can always tap your relatives overseas for more transfers,” said Fullenkamp, who has written studies on remittances for the International Monetary Fund. “Politicians are well aware.”

Some of the world’s most remittance-dependent nations are ruled by autocratic regimes where people have few economic opportunities—save for leaving.

“These countries have stronger currencies than they would otherwise have, and they have less inflation than what they would otherwise have,” said Roman Mogilevskii, an economist at the Philippines-based Asian Development Bank. 

In the Central Asian nation of Tajikistan, money from migrants mainly working in Russia make up close to half of the country’s GDP, according to the World Bank.

Remittances there have helped authoritarian President Emomali Rahmon maintain his three-decades-old grip on power, according to scholars on the country. Navruz Nekbakhtshoev, a political scientist from Tajikistan who lives in Nebraska, said the remittances calm grievances and demands on officials by feeding families back home. The mass outflow of young people to fund the cash flow also removes people who might otherwise challenge the political status quo.

“It works to stabilize the regime,” he said. “As long as this exit path exists for the people, the autocratic regime can basically stay in power.”

With Russia’s economy struggling because of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, migrants could have fewer job opportunities, affecting remittances, economists say. 

That is prompting Tajikistan and other Central Asian governments to try to reduce their dependence on Russia by promoting migrant paths to other places such as Turkey and England, said Zachary Witlin, an expert on the region at the Eurasia Group. 

In fragile, democratic countries, a large drop in remittances can contribute to unrest. In Sri Lanka, where more money arrives from the diaspora than what is earned from tea exports, remittances fell by nearly half from 2020 to 2022. That contributed to a balance-of-payment crisis that drained the country’s foreign-exchange reserves and left it unable to pay for imports or service its external debt. Amid mass unrest, the president fled the country last year. 

Elsewhere, a decline in remittances could just push more people to leave as rulers repress dissent. 

Cuba first allowed remittances after the unraveling in the 1990s of its benefactor, the Soviet Union, brought about a sharp economic contraction. The Western Hemisphere’s lone Communist country realized that allowing some people to leave could serve as an important source of hard currency, historians say.

“Remittances can in some ways grease the wheel of a system that doesn’t work,” said Ted Henken, author of books on Cuba and a professor at New York’s Baruch College. “A Cuban in Miami or Madrid might be worth more to the Cuban government just in terms of GDP.”

Then from 2019 to 2021, remittances to Cuba fell more than 70% as a result of the pandemic and tougher U.S. sanctions designed partly to block the Cuban military from profiting from the transfers. The Cuban military was taking a cut of the “well-intentioned, generous funds” that Cuban-Americans sent back to their families, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in 2020. 

With tourism to Cuba also drying up, people took to the streets to demand an end to a regime in power since 1959. 

Today, remittances remain far below prepandemic levels and Cuban immigrant families in the U.S. increasingly bankroll the departure of their relatives from the island, said Emilio Morales, president of the Havana Consulting Group, a Miami-based firm that tracks Cuba’s economy.

“The situation is so chaotic that people prefer to invest in getting their family out of Cuba,” he said. 

In Venezuela, an economy that has contracted 75% over the past decade, remittances are crucial for the people who have stayed in the country under the autocratic and bankrupt government of President Nicolás Maduro, said Angel Alvarado, a Venezuelan economist at the University of Pennsylvania.

“You can ask, ‘How are people not dying of hunger in Venezuela?’” Alvarado said. “The answer is that they have at least one child living abroad, sending money for food and medicine.”

In Nicaragua, remittances more than doubled from 2018 to 2022 after President Ortega violently put down protests. This year, they are expected to account for about 33% of the country’s GDP, one of the highest rates in Latin America, said Manuel Orozco, a Nicaraguan economist at the Inter-American Dialogue. 

Marta Ortega, 45, a Nicaraguan who found work cooking in homes in Costa Rica, said she never considered her transfers could support a regime she opposes. She just wanted to help her mother.

“It wasn’t a lot,” said Ortega. “But it was really important.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Image by Germán & Co

“Pope” calls for action on migrant deaths calling the Mediterranean 'a cemetery'

Euronews Digital  with AP, AFP, EVN, August 7, 2023

Pope Francis calls for action to save the lives of migrants who perish in the Mediterranean, or the deserts of North Africa, trying to reach Europe

Pope Francis has expressed his concerns for the welfare of migrants trying to reach Europe, saying the seas of the Mediterranean and the deserts of North Africa have become ‘cemeteries’ for them.

The Pope was speaking to journalists on his flight home from Portugal where he had held a mass for 1.5 million people to mark World Youth Day.

He told reporters the migration issue would be discussed thoroughly when the Diocese of Marseille holds its Mediterranean Meetings event from 18 to 24 September. Pope Francis will participate in some of the meetings in September where senior clerics and politicians will discuss economic equality, migration and climate change.

The remarks come two weeks after the leader of the world's 1.3 billion Roman Catholics called on global leaders to help migrants stranded in the deserts of North Africa, and also recalled extreme climate events and the need to address global warming.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Nicolás Petro with his father, President Gustavo Petro, in an image shared on his social networks on 14 January 2023, under the slogan "You have the floor".
NICOLASPETROBURGOS (COURTESY)/Editions by Germán & Co

Colombia in —Petrified State—

The initial year of Gustavo Petro's administration has been full of ups and downs, with the government demonstrating both boldness in breaking paradigms and disappointing periods, creating a sense of freefall.

"El Pais", written by Maria Jimena Duzan on August 7, 2023/ Translations and English editions provided by Germán & Co.

The first year of Gustavo Petro's administration has been like riding a rollercoaster. Sometimes an ascent can be exhilarating, especially if the government is eager to break from convention. But one cannot ignore the feeling of despair during a descent. His first year in power ends amidst a disaster, leaving us feeling helpless.

On this occasion, the fall from grace happened due to an unexpected betrayer - his son Nicolás. He, an anguished young man who was deprived of his father's affection, recently accused him of a non-existent offence. Nicolás told the prosecutor's office that he had evidence suggesting that his father, President Petro, knew about unreported financial contributions made to his campaign, which is an offence in Colombia.

So far, Nicolás Petro has not provided any evidence incriminating his father in the alleged corruption and his narrative has been inconsistent. At first, he stated that his father was not aware of the illegal funding of his campaign, however, he later contradicted himself by claiming the opposite. In a recent interview, Nicolás partly excused his father from involvement in the case by stating that he did not inform him about the funds he had solicited from unreliable sources under his father's name. Nevertheless, he implied that President Petro was aware of donations made to his campaign by established contractors, which were not reported in the accounts. Despite Nicolás Petro's contradictory statements, his accusations against his father have triggered a crisis that has left the country in a state of fear.

The political crisis unleashed by Nicolás Petro, without exaggeration, has turned into a Greek tragedy, being the product of an act of spite.

Nicolás' ex-wife Day Vásquez revealed his corruption in an interview with Semana magazine. She was hurt and envious after he abandoned her for her best friend. Day revealed that Nicolás had set up a corruption network behind his father's back. He took advantage of being the president's son and diverted money from unscrupulous contractors. Nicolás and his accomplices claimed that the money was intended for his father's presidential campaign, but it was diverted for their own personal gain. Nicolás is under investigation by the Attorney General's Office.

When Nicolás was seeking support from his father during this difficult time, the president withdrew his support. The president guaranteed the nation that he wouldn't exercise his authority to manipulate the proceedings against his son. Following the declaration of his dedication to the Constitution, he wished his son good luck in these challenging moments.

In a country more accustomed to seeing presidents use their power to protect family members who have run afoul of the law, Petro's reaction came as a refreshing balm, but the calm did not last long. His son Nicolás felt that his father had left him alone. He tried to call him several times but got no answer and according to his own confession in an interview, he even tried to threaten him, letting him know that if he was left alone, he could tell many things about the campaign, but he did not get an answer either.

Then came another freefall, after he was captured together with his ex-wife. Shattered, he decided to plunge the knife and point the finger at his father.

This act of revenge hits Petro where it hurts the most because it equates him with traditional and corrupt politics, which moves clienteles and buys votes and is nourished by a perverse network of contractors, a political world from which Petro has wanted to dissociate himself.

His son has given his enemies new incentives and they will surely use this family tragedy to take advantage of it, magnify the scandal and fill it with superlatives, especially now that the regional elections are coming up.

Presidential campaign finance scandals in Colombia have always been a circus. The control bodies in charge of investigating have been quick to shelve these processes, despite the evidence. This happened with the presidential campaign of pro-Uribe candidate Óscar Iván Zuluaga in 2014, which was investigated for having received money from Odebrecht under the table. It was shelved by the National Electoral Council for lack of evidence, even though there was evidence that the campaign had received 1.6 million dollars from Odebrecht under the table (six years later, without knowing why, the Attorney General's Office dusted off this evidence and has just charged Óscar Iván Zuluaga).

Something similar happened with Juan Manuel Santos' re-election campaign. Despite evidence showing how the campaign had been financed with money from a mega highway to be built by Odebrecht and its partner Episol, part of the Sarmiento group, the investigation was shelved by the National Electoral Council due to expiry of time limits, and the Attorney General's Office did not even investigate it. Even more grotesque is what the current attorney general, Francisco Barbosa, did when the scandal about possible illegal financing of the campaign of Iván Duque, his university roommate, was uncovered. According to the complaint, a criminal gang led by a —narco— businessman who was later murdered in Brazil had collected money to finance the second round of Iván Duque's campaign. The Prosecutor's Office closed the investigation without having made any arrests.

With Petro, things seem to be going to be at a different price. On this occasion, the regulatory bodies do not want to turn a blind eye as they did in the past, and they have their antennae up. This should be good news if it were not for the fact that they are not very interested in investigating in accordance with the law. In an unprecedented act, the prosecutor Barbosa raided the Casa de Nariño (Presidential Palace) as if it were Ali Baba's cave, with the aim of obtaining information that he could have requested through official means. Without evidence, he insinuated that there were illegal interceptions from the Casa de Nariño, when he has shelved an investigation that was opened based on a complaint made by Petro's campaign at the time. There is evidence that it was intercepted by police agents operating from the Casa de Nariño when Duque was president.

Nicolás Petro was captured when he had not even been charged, but in other cases in which those under investigation are right-wing politicians, the Attorney General's Office is generous and condescending. In the hearing of the president's son, the Prosecutor's Office arbitrarily designed a flow chart to show the connections that Nicolás Petro had, in which it included half the government. This organigram was later presented by several media outlets as if all these names were part of a criminal network. The Prosecutors investigations were so arbitrary that they had the luxury of not including the name of Alex Char in the organigramme, the dauphin of the powerful “Char” clan, Corrected version: Whom the Barbosa Prosecution has decided not to touch even with the petal of a rose, despite the fact that he has more than thirty investigations for corruption and that he also appears in Day Vásquez's chats.

Many predict that the same thing will happen to Petro as happened to Ernesto Samper, the progressive president whose campaign was accused of having been financed by the “Cali cartel” in the 1994 elections. He was unable to push through his agenda for change because he ran out of time defending himself.

If this country were the same as it was 30 years ago, the comparison would be valid, but it is not. Samper managed to stay in power because he always had the support of the big economic powers that kept him in power even though the US embassy and many of us media and journalists were on the other side. Petro, who is Colombia's first left-wing president, has (curiously) good relations with the Americans, but he is still viewed with distrust by the economic groups, which now also own the few remaining media outlets. Several of these media outlets have become the main mouthpieces of an increasingly selective Attorney General's Office, generous to its friends but implacable towards anything that has to do with Petro's government. The president does not have it easy.

Despite this panorama, it would be foolish to say that the ones to blame for Petro's reformist agenda being stuck are the media and the elites who oppose the reforms. So far, the main culprit for his reforms not seeing the light of day is Petro's lack of leadership when it comes to putting together a coalition government.

However, this tragedy that exposes a dysfunctional presidential family, which navigates between revenge, hatred, feelings of guilt, jealousy, betrayal, and power, is the best ammunition Petro's enemies must strike at his political project. Anything that moves the baser instincts is worth gold in this world governed by digital networks.

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The logo of energy technology company Siemens Energy is displayed during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File Photo

Siemens Energy books $2.4 billion in charges on wind turbines

A significant increase in its net loss for 2023, projecting a more than six-fold jump to 4.5 billion euros.

Reuters By Christoph Steitz and Alexander Hübner, August 7, 2023

FRANKFURT/MUNICH, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) on Monday said problems recently unveiled at its wind turbine unit would cost it 2.2 billion euros ($2.4 billion), well short of worst-case estimates but still casting doubt over the future of the business.

The charges will inflate Siemens Energy's net loss more than six-fold in 2023 to 4.5 billion euros, the company said, as it published third-quarter results showing a record order backlog of 106 billion euros due to strong demand.

The company also cut its sales outlook, and issued a new, lower profit outlook after withdrawing it in the wake of the disclosed issues, which include faulty components for its newer onshore turbines and ramp-up problems for offshore production.

Siemens Energy shares reversed an opening fall of as much as 7% to stand 2.7% higher at 0819 GMT, with analysts saying that the price tag should provide relief to those that feared even higher financial fallout.

"While the results are negative, they are not as bad as feared by some investors," JP Morgan analysts said, adding an additional 700 million euro writedown on deferred tax assets meant the group may take the opportunity to "clear the decks".

Siemens Energy shocked markets in late June when it announced a wide set of problems at Siemens Gamesa, one of the world's biggest wind turbine makers, just weeks after it managed to fully acquire the business it formerly only partly owned.

While in line with Siemens Energy's own estimate of more than 1 billion euros, Monday's cost tally for the issues is below the most pessimistic market estimate of more than 5 billion euros issued by UBS.

Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch said that while the situation at Siemens Gamesa was a "massive setback", the performance of the group's remaining units, including gas turbines and power converter stations, provided a silver lining.

The new set of problems at Siemens Gamesa, including faulty blades and gears at some of its 4.X and 5.X onshore models, have cost the company around a third, or more than 6 billion euros, in market value.

Siemens Energy, which has drafted in Alix Partners to help fix quality issues with Siemens Gamesa's newer onshore models, said it was currently reviewing its wind strategy and would update markets at a capital markets day in November.

Bruch said wind remained a strategically relevant growth market but added that it was paramount that the business is profitable, something which Siemens Gamesa has failed to achieve in recent years.

Thank Goodness It is Friday, For Others, a Time of Deep Loneliness

Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the liveliest lives. It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, waiting for unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence. Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakdown of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold. Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection. The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness. Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilling winter breeze.

In this desolate landscape, mental health struggles emerge, casting a long shadow over individuals. Anxiety, a relentless companion, tightens its grip around the heart, planting seeds of doubt that offer a dark temptation to escape from the eternal pain.

This enigmatic blonde, Marilyn Monroe has captivated the world as one of the most beautiful women in history. However, behind her glamorous facade lies a complex and troubled existence, often categorized as a myth by some. Monroe's genetic inheritance from her mother proved to be a double-edged sword, as it played a significant role in her battle with depression and bipolar disorder. The priest Ernesto Cardenal, a Trappist monk, was unjustly denied the Nobel Prize for Literature by the Swedish Academy. The academy has made many mistakes in its history. However, thanks to the forces of nature, Sweden remains a country where everyone must be held accountable for their sins, regardless of their position in society. Consequently, the Swedish Academy is now embarking on a new, transparent path. Ernesto and the stunning blonde —- Norma Jeanne Mortenson —- shared a platonic love in this place. She herself passionately sings "Happy Birthday To You" to President John F. Kennedy; adly and mysteriously, Kennedy was killed in Dallas one day in November 1963, among other stories. Ernesto delved into her mind to write "Pray for Marilyn Monroe," which becomes a radiograph of the interior of a person tormented by feelings of anguish, who, in the end, can no longer bear the suffering.

Here, we delve into the life of Ernest Hemingway, a man renowned for his toughness and resilience. However, beneath his rugged exterior lay a soul scarred by the horrors of war, forever leaving an indelible mark. This story holds profound significance in our present era, as the echoes of a new Cold War resonate throughout our world. Hemingway's spirit, already weakened by the atrocities he witnessed, eventually succumbed to the demons that plagued him within this chaotic world. His battles were not confined solely to the physical realm but extended into the depths of his being, where war wounds had taken root.

As we embark upon the weekend, we are implored to seek respite and inner peace amidst the clamour and turmoil of everyday life. Let us embrace the Sabbath and allow its tranquillity to permeate our weary souls. By doing so, we can nourish our spirits and find the fortitude to confront the challenges that lie ahead. Hemingway's story serves as a cautionary tale, reminding us of the fragility of the human psyche and the paramount importance of safeguarding our mental and emotional well-being.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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News round-up, August 4, 2023

Thank goodness it is Friday…

Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the liveliest lives. It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, waiting for unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence. Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakdown of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold. Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection. The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness. Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilling winter breeze.
In this desolate landscape, mental health struggles emerge, casting a long shadow over individuals. Anxiety, a relentless companion, tightens its grip around the heart, planting seeds of doubt that offer a dark temptation to escape from the eternal pain.

This enigmatic blonde, Marilyn Monroe has captivated the world as one of the most beautiful women in history. However, behind her glamorous facade lies a complex and troubled existence, often categorized as a myth by some. Monroe's genetic inheritance from her mother proved to be a double-edged sword, as it played a significant role in her battle with depression and bipolar disorder. The priest Ernesto Cardenal, a Trappist monk, was unjustly denied the Nobel Prize for Literature by the Swedish Academy. The academy has made many mistakes in its history. However, thanks to the forces of nature, Sweden remains a country where everyone must be held accountable for their sins, regardless of their position in society. Consequently, the Swedish Academy is now embarking on a new, transparent path. Ernesto and the stunning blonde —- Norma Jeanne Mortenson —- shared a platonic love in this place. She herself passionately sings "Happy Birthday To You" to President John F. Kennedy; adly and mysteriously, Kennedy was killed in Dallas one day in November 1963, among other stories. Ernesto delved into her mind to write "Pray for Marilyn Monroe," which becomes a radiograph of the interior of a person tormented by feelings of anguish, who, in the end, can no longer bear the suffering.

Here, we delve into the life of Ernest Hemingway, a man renowned for his toughness and resilience. However, beneath his rugged exterior lay a soul scarred by the horrors of war, forever leaving an indelible mark. This story holds profound significance in our present era, as the echoes of a new Cold War resonate throughout our world. Hemingway's spirit, already weakened by the atrocities he witnessed, eventually succumbed to the demons that plagued him within this chaotic world. His battles were not confined solely to the physical realm but extended into the depths of his being, where war wounds had taken root.

As we embark upon the weekend, we are implored to seek respite and inner peace amidst the clamour and turmoil of everyday life. Let us embrace the Sabbath and allow its tranquillity to permeate our weary souls. By doing so, we can nourish our spirits and find the fortitude to confront the challenges that lie ahead. Hemingway's story serves as a cautionary tale, reminding us of the fragility of the human psyche and the paramount importance of safeguarding our mental and emotional well-being.

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Most read…

Why There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin

The Moscow time By *Konstantin Sonin, TODAY

The U.S. and Europe Are Growing Alarmed by China’s Rush Into Legacy Chips

TIME BY JENNY LEONARD, IAN KING AND ALBERTO NARDELLI / BLOOMBERG, TODAY

Son of Colombia's president admits illegal money entered election campaign, prosecutor says

Reuters By Carlos Vargas, August 4, 2023

ConocoPhillips signs 20-year LNG supply deals with Mexico Pacific

Reuters by Arathy Somasekhar, August 3, 2023

Britain’s creaking energy grid isn’t ready for net zero

Government-ordered report says UK should compensate people living near new pylons in bid to speed up development.

POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER, AUGUST 4, 2023

U.S. Employers Added 187,000 Jobs in July

Hiring held steady and unemployment rate fell to 3.5%

WSJ By Gabriel T. Rubin, Aug. 4, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Image by Germán & Co

Why There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin

The Moscow time By *Konstantin Sonin, TODAY

“No one wants to negotiate with Russia,” President Vladimir Putin has complained several times on camera in recent days. He would like to reach a peace agreement or a ceasefire, he claims, but there are no negotiations.

Why are there no negotiations with Putin? This question is not as simple as it may appear. Nevertheless, there are two main reasons.

The first reason, the "image of the war," is obvious, but Putin does not understand it, and no one can explain it to him.

The second reason, which is much more significant, is structural: Putin lacks the ability to take on binding commitments. In reality, it's precisely this structural reason that impedes negotiations.

The image of the war

Since Feb. 24, 2022, the first day of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the main images of the war in the international media have been of residential buildings in Ukrainian cities destroyed by Russian rockets; civilians killed and wounded; and women, children and elderly refugees. For any ordinary person, this war is associated with photographs of peaceful Ukrainian civilians executed by Russian soldiers in Bucha, mass graves uncovered in liberated Lyman and Irpin, and flooded houses after the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. And the responsibility for all of this falls on Putin and his ministers and generals. No matter how cynical a Western politician might be, they cannot negotiate with Putin, because the average person in their country sees what is happening on the frontlines and in the rear. How can you negotiate with those who are responsible for this war?

The fact that the war is being broadcast in real-time was obviously something that those who prepared and launched it did not expect. Columns of Russian tanks on Ukrainian roads, missile and bomb strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure — all of this is shown on television screens and newspaper front pages at the frequency at which they happen. While not shown live, the murders of civilians in Bucha and Irpin have since been documented by dozens of news agencies and international organizations. This is the first war in human history that the world is observing live, as it unfolds. Those who initiated this war are naturally perceived as criminals, not as partners for negotiation.

The difficulty for Putin and his closest associates is that they, of course, do not understand the image of the war that is seen by the whole world. They live in their own specially crafted reality, in which there were no cameras for torturing detainees during the occupation of Kherson, no executions of civilians and unarmed Russian prisoners of war in Bucha, and no Russian aerial strike on the Mariupol theater, where women and children sought refuge from bombings. Not only does this not exist in Putin's world, but even if he had an adequate adviser now, he couldn't tell Putin about it! In Putin's Russia, speaking the truth about the war is forbidden — even if it is necessary for cynical, pragmatic reasons.

Putin should be told that in order to create a possibility for negotiations, he needs to publicly appoint investigations into the crimes committed in the occupied and subsequently liberated territories. The leadership of the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade and perhaps the entire 35th and 36th Armies of the Eastern Military District, the 331st and 137th Airborne Regiments, the 104th and 234th Assault Landing Regiments, and other military units responsible for the killings of civilians in Bucha should be brought to trial. Officers and soldiers directly responsible for these crimes should be appropriately punished. The same goes for other key episodes.

The same applies to those who could engage in negotiations. Who would negotiate with Lavrov, Polyanskiy, Antonov, and other “diplomats” who lied to the whole world about Bucha with a straight face? 

But who can say this to Putin? Who can answer his question, “Why aren't they negotiating with us?” if the answer to this question is considered a crime under his laws? The “information bubble” in which Putin and his entourage live is not a journalistic metaphor. It consists of a powerful institutional structure, laws, and people who are imprisoned based on those laws. Putin does not know how the whole world perceives the Russo-Ukrainian war, and he cannot find out.

The structural reason

"The war's image" is an important reason why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Western politicians are not negotiating with Putin, but it is not the most important. Yes, negotiating with someone who ordered an aggressive war and demands recognition of his conquered territories is difficult due to internal political constraints. It's challenging but possible. Negotiations were once conducted with Pol Pot, a bloodthirsty maniac worse than Stalin or Mao; with Gaddafi, a dictator almost as bloody; with Arafat, responsible for terrorist attacks against civilians; and other leaders too toxic to negotiate with publicly. After all, professional diplomats are essentially doctors who treat patients regardless of their moral qualities.

The difficulty lies in the fact that negotiations with Putin are currently pointless because he cannot make any meaningful commitments. He can make promises in words, but in reality, these promises are worthless. Over his 20-year rule, he has practically promised everything — his signature is on the border treaty with Ukraine, for example. And he violated it all. Over the past two years, he has broken almost every promise he made. Again, Putin himself may not even know about this. I suspect it would be a terrible risk for his subordinates to remind him of what he said a month, a year, or even a week ago. But everyone else knows that he breaks all of his promises. No matter how pragmatic and cynical a negotiator might be, what is the point of such negotiations?

Of course, Putin's inability to make binding commitments is not his personal problem. It is an institutional one. This is where the parliament would come in handy, but it is completely destroyed — in the sense that everyone knows that whatever laws the deputies may pass, they can cancel them tomorrow at the administration’s request.

Unlike countries where parliaments work, in the Russia of 2023, the parliament is not a source of independent guarantees. It is not a mechanism that can provide binding commitments. The same applies to any Russian institution, be it ministries or regional administrations. They cannot be a source of independent guarantees. Putin's promises, whatever they may be, cannot be backed up by anything.

It is not surprising that no one in the West counts on negotiations with Putin. See above; how can you negotiate with someone who will inevitably violate the agreements? Even if he does not want to violate them now and genuinely believes in them, nothing in Russia can compel him to keep those agreements. That is precisely why the current plan — no negotiations until the defeat of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory, and post-war guarantees of Ukraine's security through NATO membership — appears to be the only realistic option, even for the most hardened cynics.

*Konstantin Sonin is a professor at the University of Chicago

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The 2023 World Semiconductor Conference at Nanjing International Expo Center on July 19 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province of China.

The U.S. and Europe Are Growing Alarmed by China’s Rush Into Legacy Chips

TIME BY JENNY LEONARD, IAN KING AND ALBERTO NARDELLI / BLOOMBERG, TODAY

President Joe Biden implemented broad controls over China’s ability to secure the kind of advanced chips that power artificial-intelligence models and military applications. But Beijing responded by pouring billions into factories for the so-called legacy chips that haven’t been banned. Such chips are still essential throughout the global economy, critical components for everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to military hardware.

That’s sparked fresh fears about China’s potential influence and triggered talks of further reining in the Asian nation, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The U.S. is determined to prevent chips from becoming a point of leverage for China, the people said.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo alluded to the problem during a panel discussion last week at the American Enterprise Institute. “The amount of money that China is pouring into subsidizing what will be an excess capacity of mature chips and legacy chips — that’s a problem that we need to be thinking about and working with our allies to get ahead of,” she said.

While there’s no timeline for action to be taken and information is still being gathered, all options are on the table, according to a senior Biden administration official. A U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman declined to comment, while a European Commission spokesperson said the agency will take necessary measures to preserve its interests and was working to reduce the region’s dependence on foreign firms for both mature and advanced chips.

The most advanced semiconductors are those produced using the thinnest etching technology, with 3-nanometers state of the art today. Legacy chips are typically considered those made with 28-nm equipment or above, technology introduced more than a decade ago.

Senior E.U. and U.S. officials are concerned about Beijing’s drive to dominate this market for both economic and security reasons, the people said. They worry Chinese companies could dump their legacy chips on global markets in the future, driving foreign rivals out of business like in the solar industry, they said.

Western companies may then become dependent on China for these semiconductors, the people said. Buying such critical tech components from China may create national security risks, especially if the silicon is needed in defense equipment. 

“The United States and its partners should be on guard to mitigate nonmarket behavior by China’s emerging semiconductor firms,” researchers Robert Daly and Matthew Turpin wrote in a recent essay for the Hoover Institution think tank at Stanford University. “Over time, it could create new U.S. or partner dependencies on China-based supply chains that do not exist today, impinging on U.S. strategic autonomy.”

The importance of legacy chips was highlighted by supply shocks that roiled companies at the height of the Covid pandemic, including Apple Inc. and carmakers. Chip shortages cost businesses hundreds of billions of dollars in lost sales. Simple components, such as power management circuits, are essential for products like smartphones and electric vehicles, as well as military gear like missiles and radar. 

The U.S. and Europe are trying to build up their own domestic chip production to decrease reliance on Asia. Governments have set aside public money to support local factories, including the Biden administration’s $52 billion for the CHIPS and Science Act.

But domestic producers may be reluctant to invest in facilities that will have to compete with heavily subsidized Chinese plants. The Biden administration and its allies are gauging the willingness of Western companies to invest in such projects before they decide what action to take. 

While the U.S. rules introduced last October slowed down China’s development of advanced chipmaking capabilities, they left largely untouched the country’s ability to use techniques older than 14-nanometers. That has led Chinese firms to construct new plants faster than anywhere else in the world. They are forecast to build 26 fabs through 2026 that use 200-millimeter and 300-mm wafers, according to the trade group SEMI. That compares with 16 fabs for the Americas.

Heavy investments have allowed Chinese companies to keep supplying the West, despite rising tensions between Washington and Beijing. China’s chipmaking champion, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., got about 20% of last year’s sales from U.S.-based clients, including Qualcomm Inc., despite being blacklisted by the American government.

“When you think about electrification of mobility, think about the energy transition, the IoT in the industrial space, the roll-out of the telecommunication infrastructure, battery technology, that’s all — that’s the sweet spot of mid-critical and mature semiconductor,” Peter Wennink, chief executive officer of Dutch chipmaking equipment supplier ASML Holding NV, told analysts in mid-July. “And that’s where China without any exception is leading.”

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“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.

Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy

“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.

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Nicolas Petro, son of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, speaks at the Atlantic Assembly in Barranquilla, Colombia on March 14, 2023, in this screengrab taken from a handout video. Asamblea del Atlantico / Handout via REUTERS/File Photo

Son of Colombia's president admits illegal money entered election campaign, prosecutor says

Reuters By Carlos Vargas, August 4, 2023

BOGOTA, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Nicolas Petro, the eldest son of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, on Thursday admitted that illegal money entered his father's election campaign last year, the prosecutor handling the case said on Thursday.

Nicolas Petro, 37, was arrested on Saturday in the city of Barranquilla alongside his ex-wife, Daysuris del Carmen Vasquez, who was quoted in the media in March saying that two people accused of having ties to drug trafficking gave her former spouse cash to support the president's election campaign.

"Mr. Nicolas Fernando Petro Burgos gave relevant information that was unknown until now by the attorney general's office, including ... about the financing of the past presidential campaign of the current president, Mr Gustavo Petro Urrego," prosecutor Mario Burgos said during the hearing, where Nicolas Petro was present.

The information pertained to campaign funding, which appeared to exceed legal limits, and some of which was not reported to electoral authorities, Burgos added.

Although Vasquez said the president was not aware of the dealings, the scandal could hamper the Petro administration's pursuit of peace-and-surrender deals with armed groups and its ambitious reform agenda.

The president insisted he will remain in office until 2026, citing the mandate of his election victory.

"No one but the people can end this government," Petro said during a speech in Sincelejo, in Colombia's Sucre province.

Petro denied accusations that he was aware of the illegal activities and said he hoped any claims to the contrary would "vanish quickly."

"The president has never asked any of his sons or daughters to commit the crime to win or finance campaigns, or for anything that has to do with power," Petro said.

According to the charges, Nicolas Petro, a lawmaker in Atlantico province, received money from accused drug traffickers in exchange for including them in the president's peace plans.

He has pleaded not guilty, but said he would collaborate with prosecutors, who accuse him of buying properties valued at the equivalent of about $394,000 with money that did not come from his lawmaker salary.

The charges could lead to sentences of 12 and 20 years in prison.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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The logo of American oil and natural gas exploration and production company ConocoPhillips is seen during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris Helgren

ConocoPhillips signs 20-year LNG supply deals with Mexico Pacific

Reuters by Arathy Somasekhar, August 3, 2023

The deals, which are subject to the project getting the final go-ahead from Mexico Pacific, would grant Conoco access to LNG from Mexico's Pacific coast, the U.S. company said in a release.

Mexico Pacific last month announced a similar deal to supply 1 million metric tons of LNG a year to China's Zhejiang Energy.

The Saguaro facility will process low-cost gas arriving from the Permian Basin through a dedicated pipeline. Most of the resulting LNG is expected to be bound for the Asian market through a significantly shorter shipping route avoiding the Panama Canal, Mexico Pacific has said.

"We are really interested in adding West Coast LNG into our portfolio," Conoco Chief Financial Officer William Bullock told investors on Thursday on a call about the company's quarterly results. Conoco chose Saguaro over other LNG facilities under construction in Mexico because a final investment decision on that project will come sooner, he said.

"Saguaro is in a quite competitive supply location for deliveries, particularly into Asia, and fits very nice if you think of an acquisition cost for LNG," Bullock added.

Conoco continues to see strong demand for LNG, he said. "We are kind of laddering our build out of market and supply."

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Image by Germán & Co

Britain’s creaking energy grid isn’t ready for net zero

Government-ordered report says UK should compensate people living near new pylons in bid to speed up development.

POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER, AUGUST 4, 2023

LONDON — The U.K.’s energy grid is just not ready for the shift to clean power.

That’s the stark finding of a year-long, government-commissioned review published Friday, which warns the country’s existing energy policies are “badly out of date” as a crucial decarbonization deadline looms and Britain eyes a future of electric cars in every driveway and heat pumps in every home.

Getting buy-in for the major changes needed will be a mammoth task, it warns — and could even require cold hard cash payments to a pylon-skeptic British public.

Despite recent anti-green noises, the British government has strict net zero targets, including an interim goal of decarbonizing its power grid by 2035.

Overhauling and expanding the electricity network — the swathes of cables and pylons covering the U.K. — will be central to determining whether the government hits or misses those lofty aims.

In his long-awaited report, Nick Winser, the government’s electricity networks czar, warns that tens of billions of pounds worth of new grid infrastructure will be needed by 2030 in order to hit the country’s climate goals. That’s no easy task.

The National Grid, which oversees Britain’s network, estimates that five times as many high-voltage transmission lines — suspended from pylons or buried underground — will need to be installed before 2030 as were built in the past three decades combined.

This additional infrastructure may require £54 billion of investment, according to forecasts.

Grid capacity will have to expand in the years ahead to meet higher electricity consumption, as more people move to electric vehicles and electric heating in their homes. The grid also needs to be rewired to accommodate more of the U.K.’s electricity coming from offshore wind farms rather than inland gas power stations.

Winser’s report finds it will be “very hard” for the U.K. government to meet its 2035 deadline without building more quickly — and he floats one suggestion for speeding up delivery.

People living near new pylons and other net zero infrastructure should, he argues, get cash compensation. He pitches a combination of both “lump sums” paid to households near new pylons and community funds managed locally and spent on decarbonization schemes.

Pylon backlash

Existing grid projects have sparked fierce opposition in many parts of the U.K., while estate agents have said proximity to power lines can affect house prices.

In a letter to Energy Secretary Grant Shapps, who is expected to endorse the findings, Winser warns that Britain lacks a clear strategic plan for the future of its grid and asks whether, without that: “Is it so surprising that such alarm, emotion and controversy is aroused by the schemes?”

Despite recent anti-green noises, the British government has strict net zero targets, including an interim goal of decarbonizing its power grid by 2035 | Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Speaking ahead of the report’s publication, Winser did not put a figure on how much compensation households could receive.

But he pointed out that it can be 10 times cheaper to build an overhead transmission line than to bury the cables underground, arguing that some of the difference in cost could go towards compensating local people “generously.”

Winser is calling for the creation of a new “Strategic Energy Plan for Great Britain” — backed by government — to help forecast likely locations of electricity supply and demand and set out where power lines are actually needed.

He argues that this could unlock investment in infrastructure ahead of actual electricity need, while making it clear to planning authorities — and local communities — that projects have full political and regulatory support.

But a national public information campaign is also required to set out the changes ahead and explain the link to net zero, he warns.

The stakes could hardly be higher. Then-Climate Change Committee chair John Gummer — tasked with scrutinizing Britain’s climate plans — told POLITICO earlier this year that if the U.K. has any hope of fulfilling its big promises, “we need to face up to three words. It’s not education, education, education … It’s grid, grid, grid.’”

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Source: WSJ

U.S. Employers Added 187,000 Jobs in July

Hiring held steady and unemployment rate fell to 3.5%

WSJ By Gabriel T. Rubin, Aug. 4, 2023

Hiring has slowed in recent months to near the lowest pace of the pandemic recovery. PHOTO: SOREN LARSON/REUTERS

Hiring held steady as employers added 187,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%

• Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated that employers in July added 200,000 jobs, essentially unchanged from June, and that the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. Adjusted for seasonality, that payroll gain would represent cooler growth than earlier in the pandemic recovery.

• Forecasters estimated wage gains eased very slightly in July. Other recent data showed employer spending on pay and benefits rose more slowly in the second quarter than last year. The Federal Reserve is closely watching wage growth as a sign of inflationary pressures, especially among services providers.

• Economists are dialing back their recession expectations after many had projected a downturn, along with job losses, would start midyear in response to Fed interest rate increases. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to a 22-year high last week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t rule out another increase, but noted that the labor market had come into “better balance” in recent months, with fewer open positions and a larger share of Americans working or seeking jobs.

Hiring is likely to slow further later this year, but gradually, said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West. “We’re not seeing or expecting the sort of mass layoffs like we had at the beginning of the pandemic,” he said.

The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession Signal

The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession SignalPlay video: The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession Signal

While some economists are optimistic as hiring booms, employees are actually working fewer hours. Usually, reducing working hours has been a reliable sign of incoming layoffs – and a possible recession. WSJ explains what it may mean moving forward. Illustration: Ryan Trefes

Demand for workers slowly eases

After a jump in January, hiring has slowed in recent months to near the lowest pace of the pandemic recovery. Last year employers added an average of around 400,000 jobs a month, a historically robust rate.

In June, employers reported fewer job openings, including in transportation, warehousing and government. 

A fall in demand for workers that doesn’t drive unemployment significantly higher would constitute the rosiest possible outcome for the Fed, which is trying to tamp down inflation without wrecking the labor market. The unemployment rate remains near half-century lows.

Wages in focus

As demand for workers has lessened, their pay gains have slowed. Employers spent 4.5% more on wages and benefits in April to June compared with a year earlier, the Labor Department said last week. That marked a slowing from a 4.8% increase the prior quarter. 

Still, wage gains exceed both their prepandemic pace and a rate economists believe lines up with low, stable inflation. Fed officials would likely see 3.5% annual wage growth as consistent with inflation near their 2% target, assuming that worker productivity grows modestly.

“We do expect to see some further moderation in wage growth because of the fact that you see less labor demand,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon.

Signs of weakness

Labor demand varies significantly by industry compared with the widespread job gains that were common earlier in the pandemic recovery.

What do recent employment reports say about the economy? Join the conversation below.

Tech companies, retailers and temp agencies have all slowed hiring or cut jobs of late. Restaurants and bars have added jobs at a slower pace this year after rapidly staffing up in prior years as pandemic restrictions eased.

Hiring is now more concentrated among some employer groups, including healthcare and government. Public-sector employers haven’t yet fully recovered from all the jobs lost during the first months of the pandemic.

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