News round-up, August 4, 2023
Thank goodness it is Friday…
Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the liveliest lives. It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, waiting for unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence. Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakdown of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold. Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection. The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness. Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilling winter breeze.
In this desolate landscape, mental health struggles emerge, casting a long shadow over individuals. Anxiety, a relentless companion, tightens its grip around the heart, planting seeds of doubt that offer a dark temptation to escape from the eternal pain.
This enigmatic blonde, Marilyn Monroe has captivated the world as one of the most beautiful women in history. However, behind her glamorous facade lies a complex and troubled existence, often categorized as a myth by some. Monroe's genetic inheritance from her mother proved to be a double-edged sword, as it played a significant role in her battle with depression and bipolar disorder. The priest Ernesto Cardenal, a Trappist monk, was unjustly denied the Nobel Prize for Literature by the Swedish Academy. The academy has made many mistakes in its history. However, thanks to the forces of nature, Sweden remains a country where everyone must be held accountable for their sins, regardless of their position in society. Consequently, the Swedish Academy is now embarking on a new, transparent path. Ernesto and the stunning blonde —- Norma Jeanne Mortenson —- shared a platonic love in this place. She herself passionately sings "Happy Birthday To You" to President John F. Kennedy; adly and mysteriously, Kennedy was killed in Dallas one day in November 1963, among other stories. Ernesto delved into her mind to write "Pray for Marilyn Monroe," which becomes a radiograph of the interior of a person tormented by feelings of anguish, who, in the end, can no longer bear the suffering.
Here, we delve into the life of Ernest Hemingway, a man renowned for his toughness and resilience. However, beneath his rugged exterior lay a soul scarred by the horrors of war, forever leaving an indelible mark. This story holds profound significance in our present era, as the echoes of a new Cold War resonate throughout our world. Hemingway's spirit, already weakened by the atrocities he witnessed, eventually succumbed to the demons that plagued him within this chaotic world. His battles were not confined solely to the physical realm but extended into the depths of his being, where war wounds had taken root.
As we embark upon the weekend, we are implored to seek respite and inner peace amidst the clamour and turmoil of everyday life. Let us embrace the Sabbath and allow its tranquillity to permeate our weary souls. By doing so, we can nourish our spirits and find the fortitude to confront the challenges that lie ahead. Hemingway's story serves as a cautionary tale, reminding us of the fragility of the human psyche and the paramount importance of safeguarding our mental and emotional well-being.
Most read…
Why There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin
The Moscow time By *Konstantin Sonin, TODAYThe U.S. and Europe Are Growing Alarmed by China’s Rush Into Legacy Chips
TIME BY JENNY LEONARD, IAN KING AND ALBERTO NARDELLI / BLOOMBERG, TODAYSon of Colombia's president admits illegal money entered election campaign, prosecutor says
Reuters By Carlos Vargas, August 4, 2023ConocoPhillips signs 20-year LNG supply deals with Mexico Pacific
Reuters by Arathy Somasekhar, August 3, 2023Britain’s creaking energy grid isn’t ready for net zero
Government-ordered report says UK should compensate people living near new pylons in bid to speed up development.
POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER, AUGUST 4, 2023U.S. Employers Added 187,000 Jobs in July
Hiring held steady and unemployment rate fell to 3.5%
WSJ By Gabriel T. Rubin, Aug. 4, 2023
At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Image by Germán & CoWhy There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin
The Moscow time By *Konstantin Sonin, TODAY“No one wants to negotiate with Russia,” President Vladimir Putin has complained several times on camera in recent days. He would like to reach a peace agreement or a ceasefire, he claims, but there are no negotiations.
Why are there no negotiations with Putin? This question is not as simple as it may appear. Nevertheless, there are two main reasons.
The first reason, the "image of the war," is obvious, but Putin does not understand it, and no one can explain it to him.
The second reason, which is much more significant, is structural: Putin lacks the ability to take on binding commitments. In reality, it's precisely this structural reason that impedes negotiations.
The image of the war
Since Feb. 24, 2022, the first day of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the main images of the war in the international media have been of residential buildings in Ukrainian cities destroyed by Russian rockets; civilians killed and wounded; and women, children and elderly refugees. For any ordinary person, this war is associated with photographs of peaceful Ukrainian civilians executed by Russian soldiers in Bucha, mass graves uncovered in liberated Lyman and Irpin, and flooded houses after the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. And the responsibility for all of this falls on Putin and his ministers and generals. No matter how cynical a Western politician might be, they cannot negotiate with Putin, because the average person in their country sees what is happening on the frontlines and in the rear. How can you negotiate with those who are responsible for this war?
The fact that the war is being broadcast in real-time was obviously something that those who prepared and launched it did not expect. Columns of Russian tanks on Ukrainian roads, missile and bomb strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure — all of this is shown on television screens and newspaper front pages at the frequency at which they happen. While not shown live, the murders of civilians in Bucha and Irpin have since been documented by dozens of news agencies and international organizations. This is the first war in human history that the world is observing live, as it unfolds. Those who initiated this war are naturally perceived as criminals, not as partners for negotiation.
The difficulty for Putin and his closest associates is that they, of course, do not understand the image of the war that is seen by the whole world. They live in their own specially crafted reality, in which there were no cameras for torturing detainees during the occupation of Kherson, no executions of civilians and unarmed Russian prisoners of war in Bucha, and no Russian aerial strike on the Mariupol theater, where women and children sought refuge from bombings. Not only does this not exist in Putin's world, but even if he had an adequate adviser now, he couldn't tell Putin about it! In Putin's Russia, speaking the truth about the war is forbidden — even if it is necessary for cynical, pragmatic reasons.
Putin should be told that in order to create a possibility for negotiations, he needs to publicly appoint investigations into the crimes committed in the occupied and subsequently liberated territories. The leadership of the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade and perhaps the entire 35th and 36th Armies of the Eastern Military District, the 331st and 137th Airborne Regiments, the 104th and 234th Assault Landing Regiments, and other military units responsible for the killings of civilians in Bucha should be brought to trial. Officers and soldiers directly responsible for these crimes should be appropriately punished. The same goes for other key episodes.
The same applies to those who could engage in negotiations. Who would negotiate with Lavrov, Polyanskiy, Antonov, and other “diplomats” who lied to the whole world about Bucha with a straight face?
But who can say this to Putin? Who can answer his question, “Why aren't they negotiating with us?” if the answer to this question is considered a crime under his laws? The “information bubble” in which Putin and his entourage live is not a journalistic metaphor. It consists of a powerful institutional structure, laws, and people who are imprisoned based on those laws. Putin does not know how the whole world perceives the Russo-Ukrainian war, and he cannot find out.
The structural reason
"The war's image" is an important reason why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Western politicians are not negotiating with Putin, but it is not the most important. Yes, negotiating with someone who ordered an aggressive war and demands recognition of his conquered territories is difficult due to internal political constraints. It's challenging but possible. Negotiations were once conducted with Pol Pot, a bloodthirsty maniac worse than Stalin or Mao; with Gaddafi, a dictator almost as bloody; with Arafat, responsible for terrorist attacks against civilians; and other leaders too toxic to negotiate with publicly. After all, professional diplomats are essentially doctors who treat patients regardless of their moral qualities.
The difficulty lies in the fact that negotiations with Putin are currently pointless because he cannot make any meaningful commitments. He can make promises in words, but in reality, these promises are worthless. Over his 20-year rule, he has practically promised everything — his signature is on the border treaty with Ukraine, for example. And he violated it all. Over the past two years, he has broken almost every promise he made. Again, Putin himself may not even know about this. I suspect it would be a terrible risk for his subordinates to remind him of what he said a month, a year, or even a week ago. But everyone else knows that he breaks all of his promises. No matter how pragmatic and cynical a negotiator might be, what is the point of such negotiations?
Of course, Putin's inability to make binding commitments is not his personal problem. It is an institutional one. This is where the parliament would come in handy, but it is completely destroyed — in the sense that everyone knows that whatever laws the deputies may pass, they can cancel them tomorrow at the administration’s request.
Unlike countries where parliaments work, in the Russia of 2023, the parliament is not a source of independent guarantees. It is not a mechanism that can provide binding commitments. The same applies to any Russian institution, be it ministries or regional administrations. They cannot be a source of independent guarantees. Putin's promises, whatever they may be, cannot be backed up by anything.
It is not surprising that no one in the West counts on negotiations with Putin. See above; how can you negotiate with someone who will inevitably violate the agreements? Even if he does not want to violate them now and genuinely believes in them, nothing in Russia can compel him to keep those agreements. That is precisely why the current plan — no negotiations until the defeat of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory, and post-war guarantees of Ukraine's security through NATO membership — appears to be the only realistic option, even for the most hardened cynics.
*Konstantin Sonin is a professor at the University of Chicago
The 2023 World Semiconductor Conference at Nanjing International Expo Center on July 19 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province of China.The U.S. and Europe Are Growing Alarmed by China’s Rush Into Legacy Chips
TIME BY JENNY LEONARD, IAN KING AND ALBERTO NARDELLI / BLOOMBERG, TODAYPresident Joe Biden implemented broad controls over China’s ability to secure the kind of advanced chips that power artificial-intelligence models and military applications. But Beijing responded by pouring billions into factories for the so-called legacy chips that haven’t been banned. Such chips are still essential throughout the global economy, critical components for everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to military hardware.
That’s sparked fresh fears about China’s potential influence and triggered talks of further reining in the Asian nation, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The U.S. is determined to prevent chips from becoming a point of leverage for China, the people said.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo alluded to the problem during a panel discussion last week at the American Enterprise Institute. “The amount of money that China is pouring into subsidizing what will be an excess capacity of mature chips and legacy chips — that’s a problem that we need to be thinking about and working with our allies to get ahead of,” she said.
While there’s no timeline for action to be taken and information is still being gathered, all options are on the table, according to a senior Biden administration official. A U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman declined to comment, while a European Commission spokesperson said the agency will take necessary measures to preserve its interests and was working to reduce the region’s dependence on foreign firms for both mature and advanced chips.
The most advanced semiconductors are those produced using the thinnest etching technology, with 3-nanometers state of the art today. Legacy chips are typically considered those made with 28-nm equipment or above, technology introduced more than a decade ago.
Senior E.U. and U.S. officials are concerned about Beijing’s drive to dominate this market for both economic and security reasons, the people said. They worry Chinese companies could dump their legacy chips on global markets in the future, driving foreign rivals out of business like in the solar industry, they said.
Western companies may then become dependent on China for these semiconductors, the people said. Buying such critical tech components from China may create national security risks, especially if the silicon is needed in defense equipment.
“The United States and its partners should be on guard to mitigate nonmarket behavior by China’s emerging semiconductor firms,” researchers Robert Daly and Matthew Turpin wrote in a recent essay for the Hoover Institution think tank at Stanford University. “Over time, it could create new U.S. or partner dependencies on China-based supply chains that do not exist today, impinging on U.S. strategic autonomy.”
The importance of legacy chips was highlighted by supply shocks that roiled companies at the height of the Covid pandemic, including Apple Inc. and carmakers. Chip shortages cost businesses hundreds of billions of dollars in lost sales. Simple components, such as power management circuits, are essential for products like smartphones and electric vehicles, as well as military gear like missiles and radar.
The U.S. and Europe are trying to build up their own domestic chip production to decrease reliance on Asia. Governments have set aside public money to support local factories, including the Biden administration’s $52 billion for the CHIPS and Science Act.
But domestic producers may be reluctant to invest in facilities that will have to compete with heavily subsidized Chinese plants. The Biden administration and its allies are gauging the willingness of Western companies to invest in such projects before they decide what action to take.
While the U.S. rules introduced last October slowed down China’s development of advanced chipmaking capabilities, they left largely untouched the country’s ability to use techniques older than 14-nanometers. That has led Chinese firms to construct new plants faster than anywhere else in the world. They are forecast to build 26 fabs through 2026 that use 200-millimeter and 300-mm wafers, according to the trade group SEMI. That compares with 16 fabs for the Americas.
Heavy investments have allowed Chinese companies to keep supplying the West, despite rising tensions between Washington and Beijing. China’s chipmaking champion, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., got about 20% of last year’s sales from U.S.-based clients, including Qualcomm Inc., despite being blacklisted by the American government.
“When you think about electrification of mobility, think about the energy transition, the IoT in the industrial space, the roll-out of the telecommunication infrastructure, battery technology, that’s all — that’s the sweet spot of mid-critical and mature semiconductor,” Peter Wennink, chief executive officer of Dutch chipmaking equipment supplier ASML Holding NV, told analysts in mid-July. “And that’s where China without any exception is leading.”
“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.
Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.
Nicolas Petro, son of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, speaks at the Atlantic Assembly in Barranquilla, Colombia on March 14, 2023, in this screengrab taken from a handout video. Asamblea del Atlantico / Handout via REUTERS/File PhotoSon of Colombia's president admits illegal money entered election campaign, prosecutor says
Reuters By Carlos Vargas, August 4, 2023BOGOTA, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Nicolas Petro, the eldest son of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, on Thursday admitted that illegal money entered his father's election campaign last year, the prosecutor handling the case said on Thursday.
Nicolas Petro, 37, was arrested on Saturday in the city of Barranquilla alongside his ex-wife, Daysuris del Carmen Vasquez, who was quoted in the media in March saying that two people accused of having ties to drug trafficking gave her former spouse cash to support the president's election campaign.
"Mr. Nicolas Fernando Petro Burgos gave relevant information that was unknown until now by the attorney general's office, including ... about the financing of the past presidential campaign of the current president, Mr Gustavo Petro Urrego," prosecutor Mario Burgos said during the hearing, where Nicolas Petro was present.
The information pertained to campaign funding, which appeared to exceed legal limits, and some of which was not reported to electoral authorities, Burgos added.
Although Vasquez said the president was not aware of the dealings, the scandal could hamper the Petro administration's pursuit of peace-and-surrender deals with armed groups and its ambitious reform agenda.
The president insisted he will remain in office until 2026, citing the mandate of his election victory.
"No one but the people can end this government," Petro said during a speech in Sincelejo, in Colombia's Sucre province.
Petro denied accusations that he was aware of the illegal activities and said he hoped any claims to the contrary would "vanish quickly."
"The president has never asked any of his sons or daughters to commit the crime to win or finance campaigns, or for anything that has to do with power," Petro said.
According to the charges, Nicolas Petro, a lawmaker in Atlantico province, received money from accused drug traffickers in exchange for including them in the president's peace plans.
He has pleaded not guilty, but said he would collaborate with prosecutors, who accuse him of buying properties valued at the equivalent of about $394,000 with money that did not come from his lawmaker salary.
The charges could lead to sentences of 12 and 20 years in prison.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
The logo of American oil and natural gas exploration and production company ConocoPhillips is seen during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris HelgrenConocoPhillips signs 20-year LNG supply deals with Mexico Pacific
Reuters by Arathy Somasekhar, August 3, 2023The deals, which are subject to the project getting the final go-ahead from Mexico Pacific, would grant Conoco access to LNG from Mexico's Pacific coast, the U.S. company said in a release.
Mexico Pacific last month announced a similar deal to supply 1 million metric tons of LNG a year to China's Zhejiang Energy.
The Saguaro facility will process low-cost gas arriving from the Permian Basin through a dedicated pipeline. Most of the resulting LNG is expected to be bound for the Asian market through a significantly shorter shipping route avoiding the Panama Canal, Mexico Pacific has said.
"We are really interested in adding West Coast LNG into our portfolio," Conoco Chief Financial Officer William Bullock told investors on Thursday on a call about the company's quarterly results. Conoco chose Saguaro over other LNG facilities under construction in Mexico because a final investment decision on that project will come sooner, he said.
"Saguaro is in a quite competitive supply location for deliveries, particularly into Asia, and fits very nice if you think of an acquisition cost for LNG," Bullock added.
Conoco continues to see strong demand for LNG, he said. "We are kind of laddering our build out of market and supply."
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoBritain’s creaking energy grid isn’t ready for net zero
Government-ordered report says UK should compensate people living near new pylons in bid to speed up development.
POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER, AUGUST 4, 2023LONDON — The U.K.’s energy grid is just not ready for the shift to clean power.
That’s the stark finding of a year-long, government-commissioned review published Friday, which warns the country’s existing energy policies are “badly out of date” as a crucial decarbonization deadline looms and Britain eyes a future of electric cars in every driveway and heat pumps in every home.
Getting buy-in for the major changes needed will be a mammoth task, it warns — and could even require cold hard cash payments to a pylon-skeptic British public.
Despite recent anti-green noises, the British government has strict net zero targets, including an interim goal of decarbonizing its power grid by 2035.
Overhauling and expanding the electricity network — the swathes of cables and pylons covering the U.K. — will be central to determining whether the government hits or misses those lofty aims.
In his long-awaited report, Nick Winser, the government’s electricity networks czar, warns that tens of billions of pounds worth of new grid infrastructure will be needed by 2030 in order to hit the country’s climate goals. That’s no easy task.
The National Grid, which oversees Britain’s network, estimates that five times as many high-voltage transmission lines — suspended from pylons or buried underground — will need to be installed before 2030 as were built in the past three decades combined.
This additional infrastructure may require £54 billion of investment, according to forecasts.
Grid capacity will have to expand in the years ahead to meet higher electricity consumption, as more people move to electric vehicles and electric heating in their homes. The grid also needs to be rewired to accommodate more of the U.K.’s electricity coming from offshore wind farms rather than inland gas power stations.
Winser’s report finds it will be “very hard” for the U.K. government to meet its 2035 deadline without building more quickly — and he floats one suggestion for speeding up delivery.
People living near new pylons and other net zero infrastructure should, he argues, get cash compensation. He pitches a combination of both “lump sums” paid to households near new pylons and community funds managed locally and spent on decarbonization schemes.
Pylon backlash
Existing grid projects have sparked fierce opposition in many parts of the U.K., while estate agents have said proximity to power lines can affect house prices.
In a letter to Energy Secretary Grant Shapps, who is expected to endorse the findings, Winser warns that Britain lacks a clear strategic plan for the future of its grid and asks whether, without that: “Is it so surprising that such alarm, emotion and controversy is aroused by the schemes?”
Despite recent anti-green noises, the British government has strict net zero targets, including an interim goal of decarbonizing its power grid by 2035 | Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images
Speaking ahead of the report’s publication, Winser did not put a figure on how much compensation households could receive.
But he pointed out that it can be 10 times cheaper to build an overhead transmission line than to bury the cables underground, arguing that some of the difference in cost could go towards compensating local people “generously.”
Winser is calling for the creation of a new “Strategic Energy Plan for Great Britain” — backed by government — to help forecast likely locations of electricity supply and demand and set out where power lines are actually needed.
He argues that this could unlock investment in infrastructure ahead of actual electricity need, while making it clear to planning authorities — and local communities — that projects have full political and regulatory support.
But a national public information campaign is also required to set out the changes ahead and explain the link to net zero, he warns.
The stakes could hardly be higher. Then-Climate Change Committee chair John Gummer — tasked with scrutinizing Britain’s climate plans — told POLITICO earlier this year that if the U.K. has any hope of fulfilling its big promises, “we need to face up to three words. It’s not education, education, education … It’s grid, grid, grid.’”
Source: WSJU.S. Employers Added 187,000 Jobs in July
Hiring held steady and unemployment rate fell to 3.5%
WSJ By Gabriel T. Rubin, Aug. 4, 2023Hiring has slowed in recent months to near the lowest pace of the pandemic recovery. PHOTO: SOREN LARSON/REUTERS
Hiring held steady as employers added 187,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated that employers in July added 200,000 jobs, essentially unchanged from June, and that the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. Adjusted for seasonality, that payroll gain would represent cooler growth than earlier in the pandemic recovery.
Forecasters estimated wage gains eased very slightly in July. Other recent data showed employer spending on pay and benefits rose more slowly in the second quarter than last year. The Federal Reserve is closely watching wage growth as a sign of inflationary pressures, especially among services providers.
Economists are dialing back their recession expectations after many had projected a downturn, along with job losses, would start midyear in response to Fed interest rate increases. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to a 22-year high last week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t rule out another increase, but noted that the labor market had come into “better balance” in recent months, with fewer open positions and a larger share of Americans working or seeking jobs.
Hiring is likely to slow further later this year, but gradually, said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West. “We’re not seeing or expecting the sort of mass layoffs like we had at the beginning of the pandemic,” he said.
The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession Signal
The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession SignalPlay video: The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession Signal
While some economists are optimistic as hiring booms, employees are actually working fewer hours. Usually, reducing working hours has been a reliable sign of incoming layoffs – and a possible recession. WSJ explains what it may mean moving forward. Illustration: Ryan Trefes
Demand for workers slowly eases
After a jump in January, hiring has slowed in recent months to near the lowest pace of the pandemic recovery. Last year employers added an average of around 400,000 jobs a month, a historically robust rate.
In June, employers reported fewer job openings, including in transportation, warehousing and government.
A fall in demand for workers that doesn’t drive unemployment significantly higher would constitute the rosiest possible outcome for the Fed, which is trying to tamp down inflation without wrecking the labor market. The unemployment rate remains near half-century lows.
Wages in focus
As demand for workers has lessened, their pay gains have slowed. Employers spent 4.5% more on wages and benefits in April to June compared with a year earlier, the Labor Department said last week. That marked a slowing from a 4.8% increase the prior quarter.
Still, wage gains exceed both their prepandemic pace and a rate economists believe lines up with low, stable inflation. Fed officials would likely see 3.5% annual wage growth as consistent with inflation near their 2% target, assuming that worker productivity grows modestly.
“We do expect to see some further moderation in wage growth because of the fact that you see less labor demand,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon.
Signs of weakness
Labor demand varies significantly by industry compared with the widespread job gains that were common earlier in the pandemic recovery.
What do recent employment reports say about the economy? Join the conversation below.
Tech companies, retailers and temp agencies have all slowed hiring or cut jobs of late. Restaurants and bars have added jobs at a slower pace this year after rapidly staffing up in prior years as pandemic restrictions eased.
Hiring is now more concentrated among some employer groups, including healthcare and government. Public-sector employers haven’t yet fully recovered from all the jobs lost during the first months of the pandemic.