“Sex", Madonna's banned book, which broke every rule of hypocrisy
Power in the context of sexuality, personal life, and politics
In a truly intriguing encounter that took place in 1991, a group of individuals hailing from various nations - an Englishman, an Italian, a Japanese, a Frenchman, and a Spaniard - found themselves gathered in a hotel room located in the bustling city of Frankfurt. Embarking on an adventure that might seem like the beginning of a witty anecdote, little did they know that this would mark the commencement of an extraordinary and unforgettable publishing endeavor, destined to leave an indelible mark on the literary landscape of recent times.
Image by Germán & Co
Image by Germán & CoJust Exceptional...
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Primary source "El Pais", translation, adaptation, and editing by Germán & Co. Karlstad, Sweden, July 12, 2023In a truly intriguing encounter that took place in 1991, a group of individuals hailing from various nations - an Englishman, an Italian, a Japanese, a Frenchman, and a Spaniard - found themselves gathered in a hotel room located in the bustling city of Frankfurt. Embarking on an adventure that might seem like the beginning of a witty anecdote, little did they know that this would mark the commencement of an extraordinary and unforgettable publishing endeavor, destined to leave an indelible mark on the literary landscape of recent times.
Bound by a confidentiality agreement, meticulously crafted to prevent the divulgence of its contents, these individuals voluntarily subjected themselves to an intensely stringent security protocol. The agreement necessitated undergoing thorough searches upon both entry and exit, ensuring a complete absence of cameras and any potential means of recording. Their mission? To meticulously survey a collection of striking photographs and captivating texts within the limited span of a solitary hour.
Amidst this clandestine rendezvous, one member of the esteemed publishing house, Ediciones B, assumed the role of informant. With a steadfast resolve, the Spaniard returned to the very venue occupied by her publishing company during the esteemed Frankfurt Book Fair. Determined to shed light on the enigmatic proceedings she had borne witness to, she divulged the nature of the captivating item that lay at the heart of this secret affair.
Bearing witness to the artistic prowess of none other than Steven Meisel, the renowned photographer credited with birthing the concept of supermodels during the iconic 1990s, the item in question housed a stunning anthology of explicit photographs showcasing the incomparable Madonna. This awe-inspiring collection belonged to a book, the creation of which was a collaboration between the illustrious musician and a scriptwriter, writer, and journalist extraordinaire by the name of Glenn O'Brien. It was through mutual connections, namely their encounters with the legendary Jean Michel Basquiat, that Madonna and Glenn O'Brien's collaborative journey commenced.
To elevate the stature of this publication, it was graced with the creative inputs of Fabien Baron, an esteemed designer renowned for his extraordinary talents in graphic design. Madonna, an iconic figure of the 1980s, made an indelible impression by skillfully blending pop music, religious themes, and subsequently, exploring sexuality in her immensely successful hit "Justify My Love." Fueling her fearless spirit, she fearlessly unleashed the boundary-pushing masterpiece "Sex" in 1992.
The featured poster highlights the 'Erotica' album, which has been exclusively crafted for the Japanese audience.In a detailed account provided by Sureda, it becomes clear that Madonna's team had specific design requirements for the book. The layout had to be faithfully followed, including using the same font and maintaining the original text's placement. However, some pages, particularly those with Madonna's handwritten notes and crossed-out sections, were forbidden from being translated. These pages would only appear in the Spanish edition's final epilogue. To further enhance the book's allure, it was published with a metal spiral-bound cover and a metal back cover, and it was packaged in cellophane, keeping its contents hidden until purchased and opened. Remarkably, despite the risks involved, Ediciones B boldly invested in the book back in 1992, a year in which they had already achieved significant success with notable titles like the sequel to "Gone with the Wind," 'Scarlett,' the Nobel Prize-winning work by Nadine Gordimer, and the groundbreaking end-of-century novel, 'American Psycho' by Bret Easton Ellis.
During a time when the internet was not yet prevalent, the book managed to generate tremendous excitement. Today, it's worth exploring why it was deemed so taboo. Perhaps it was because society was still relatively naive back then. Mark Snyder, a writer and public relations professional in New York, recalls his experience as a 16-year-old in 1992. He vividly remembers the book being wrapped in cellophane and sealed, only accessible through special shelves that required assistance from bookstore staff. For Mark, who saved up his birthday money and asked an older friend to purchase it on his behalf, the $50 price tag was a significant investment. The high demand for the book quickly led to it being sold out within weeks of its October release, leaving eager buyers unable to purchase it during the holiday season. Presently, Snyder and his friend Kenny Finkle (50), an author and drama professor at Marymount Manhattan College, run a podcast named 'All I Wanna Do Is Talk About Madonna'. In this podcast, they analyse and discuss Madonna's discography song by song.
Sarah Lee, a Madonna look-alike, posed with a copy of 'Sex' at a launch party in London. Photo: NEIL MUNNS
Madonna, with cleavage and a stuffed sheep, looked like a German shepherdess in an erotic version at the launch party for 'Sex' in New York, October 1992. Photo: ALLAN TANNENBAUMReality often fails to live up to the imagination, and one's fantasies about forbidden books remain unmatched. According to rumors, Madonna had engaged in sexual activities with dogs within the book. However, upon investigation, it is revealed that the images merely depict a dog alongside nude individuals. The book showcases photographs of Madonna in a state of undress, frequently capturing her reflection in a mirror or portraying her being restrained by both men and women. It also explores simulated acts such as black kissing and showcases Madonna engaging in affectionate moments with celebrities including Naomi Campbell, Isabella Rossellini, and Vanilla Ice, her former boyfriend. Remarkably, the book embraces diversity by including representations of various races, genders, and sexual orientations. Within the written content, Madonna, adopting the pseudonym Dita in homage to German actress Dita Parlo, delves into a discussion about the female body. She states, "I adore my cat, for it encompasses the entirety of my existence. It serves as the breeding ground for both my most agonizing experiences and my most unimaginable pleasures. My “cunt” is an everlasting source of enlightenment.”
A discussion on the topic of consent…
Snyder said, "Madonna was well aware that her images catered to sexual fantasies, but she did not aim to create any pornographic content." "I believe the book effectively addresses the concept of consent. In this regard, the book extends beyond sexual activities by emphasizing that any activity based on mutual consent is likely to be a satisfying experience, which, as a result, promotes trust and freedom." Sureda explicitly states that he did not edit a book containing pornographic content. Despite its reputation, this is primarily an artistic book. The images show consensual sex, gazes, play, and nudity, all within a design and concept of erotic daydreams. During her promotion in 1992, Spain had the highest number of new AIDS cases: "I believe sex is still possible if done carefully, and masturbation is the safest form of sexual activity." That's the reason why it features frequently in my book. It is a collection of erotic fantasies rather than a guide encouraging promiscuity.
The promotion was successful. According to Sureda, multiple bookshops in Barcelona and Madrid opened the night before the book's release. "I recall seeing a queue of twenty people at the Virgin Megastore on Gran Vía in Barcelona." This achievement is notable considering that the book was priced at 7,500 pesetas. The cost was 50 euros according to the exchange rate; however, considering inflation, it would currently amount to almost 140 euros. The cost was set globally, with minor variations. In the US, it was priced at 50 dollars; in France, it was 36 euros; in Germany, it was 42 euros. To promote the book, Madonna gave television interviews at the Michelangelo Hotel in Milan, where she spoke with several European channels. The interview she gave for Spain would go down in history.
Where does Madonna put her thermometer when she has a fever?
"Who didn't like Madonna? She was Madonna!" exclaims Millán Salcedo on the other end of the phone. On Monday 5th October 1992, he was in Milan with Josema Yuste, his partner in the comedy duo Martes y 13, and a delegation from Radio Television Española (RTVE) to interview Madonna. It was to be the highlight of their new weekly show, "Seeing us". "A woman from our team watched the interviews and kept us updated while we waited our turn. At the start of the first interview, she came down in a frenzy and said, 'He's just punched the interviewer! Don't ask him about sex or Antonio Banderas!' And I'm like, 'Don't ask him about sex?' And I think, 'Don't ask him about sex when he's promoting sex? That's what we're here for.
Madonna converses with designer Jean-Paul Gaultier while on a promotional visit to Paris for her album 'Erotica' and book 'Sex' in October 1992. Photograph: YVES SIEUR (AFP)As per her recollection, Madonna appeared to be angry because she had barely slept. "Thank goodness I was out of the role then since Josema [Yuste] passed," Salcedo continues. "He looked at me and made me understand that it wasn't working," Salcedo explains further. After asking a few questions that Madonna answered vaguely, Millán scattered popcorn throughout the room, barked like a dog, and, in the most remarkable moment of the interview, he brought out a pair of huge panties, placed them on Madonna's head, and then jumped onto her sofa - despite it being forbidden according to the singer's requests - and started mimicking a dog by humping her. "I can't believe I'm being harassed!" she laughed. Salcedo remembers how she was probably the first person ever in the country, and from that moment on, she became charming. "Amazing! She transformed from being edgy to an incredibly beautiful being with big blue eyes that are beyond imagination. The entire incident took only four minutes. During the interview, she was asked, "Where does Madonna place her thermometer when she has a fever?" Referring to the title of one of Erotica's songs and a sketch by the Feber toy duo, the performance could be even better. Millán had intended to perform a reading of a couple of erotic poems, imitating Gloria Fuertes, while holding a fake copy of 'Sex'. However, the performance did not take place due to last-minute tension. Despite the setbacks, the performance still carries a Dadaist essence: two Spanish comedians presenting an incomprehensible act to an international star who mutters, "I think I'm having a nightmare" in bewilderment. Nevertheless, the interviewer seems to have pleased her by not bowing down to her fame, even gifting her a pair of panties and simulating intercourse with her.
We did it all with Spain in mind because the program was going to be aired here. However, she did not understand Spanish, we did not understand English, and the simultaneous translator did not understand either of us. Salcedo has not seen the interview again. He loathes it. He does recall, "When the cameras stopped rolling, while we were leaving, she kissed us, revealing her human side. I kissed her, gazed into her eyes, and declared, 'Madonna, I love you'. She gazed at me, appearing disarmed and fragile, and responded: Thank you.
Power in the context of sexuality, personal life, and politics
Mark Snyder and Kenny Finkle answer Madonna-related questions promptly and passionately, as they do on their podcast. Mark Snyder concedes that Madonna's Erotica era is among the most fascinating of her profession. Kenny Finkle adds that after the Blonde Ambition Tour, Madonna recognized her potential to go even further and address uncomfortable topics, having overcome several obstacles during the tour. Continuing his point, "This moment's wonder lies in the fact that a woman in her thirties realized she was at the peak of her beauty and power and utilized it to her advantage." Over the ensuing years, she remained beautiful, yet not merely in her physical appearance. In 1992, her body was of great significance, and Sex commemorates youth, pristine beauty, and the ultimate power - both personal and political - that stems from it." Mark concludes, stating, "The present generations are much more harmonious with this message." Additionally, Kenny claims, "That is the actual heritage of this book." The sexual freedom of today's generation is a legacy of "Sex".
Madonna paid a heavy price for her boldness. Although "Sex" sold 800,000 copies, Madonna's album "Erotica" received mixed reviews and was considered a minor flop by her standards. According to Finkle, Madonna covered up and avoided discussing this era on her next album. When she did, she displayed a particular fear. In the following years, Madonna became more restrained and kept quiet. Subsequently, Madonna appeared in musicals, adopted a spiritual persona, embraced cowboy culture, and became a disco diva.
Madonna appears in a scene from the 'Erotica' music video, which was released in the autumn of 1992. Image courtesy of the Everett Collection.Three decades later…
"Erotica" is considered one of Madonna's boldest and most innovative albums, featuring a somber sound and audacious lyrics that deal with themes of love, AIDS, and grief. In addition, "Sex" has become a cult object that has never been reissued and is traded on the second-hand market for prices as high as 700 euros. According to Sureda, it was a strategic decision. "It was a visionary product that inspired the trend of limited editions, which are now ubiquitous in the worlds of publishing and fashion," said Sureda. Furthermore, according to Kenny, "the limited number of copies produced and the absence of any subsequent editions significantly enhance its perceived value and contribute to the mystique surrounding that period."
Recently, Madonna has revisited the topic of "Sex," as evidenced by her Instagram account. Furthermore, she continuously discusses sex and displays nudity on Instagram. The wild blonde showcases her naked body on Instagram, talks about sex persistently, and does not dress according to her age. By doing so, she manages to elicit the same response as she did thirty years ago when she was younger. Kenny explains that as she did in 1992, Madonna continues to pave the way for upcoming female stars who aim for long-lasting careers and do not want to compromise their identity. Mark elaborates that Madonna considers it essential to incorporate all her prior versions into her current identity. "Why do women encounter resistance when they live, indulge in sexuality, and exult without inhibition?" In that regard, Madonna has much work to undertake.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
News Round-up, August 10, 2023
Try to understand the controversy surrounding the Sahel region in a single paragraph
The Sahel region faces complex challenges including poverty, conflict, and climate change, leading to food insecurity, displacement, and underdevelopment. The United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS) defines the Sahel political region as a group of ten countries, including Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Nigeria. In the vast Sahel region, stretching across ten countries, a deep-seated resentment persists towards France, stemming from its historically flawed colonial policies. The arduous quest for a stable and enduring democracy in this area remains besieged by numerous obstacles. Amidst this delicate state of affairs, Russia has adroitly capitalized on the prevailing discontent by shrewdly engaging in arms trading and offering military assistance in exchange for valuable resources. The formidable presence of the Wagner Group has further complicated the situation. Consequently, in the case of Niger, France finds itself at the forefront, suffering significant losses due to the repercussions of its colonial past and the imminent threat to its vital uranium reserves.
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Wildfires in Hawaii’s Maui Leave Six Dead as Evacuations Continue
Tourist town of Lahaina on Maui’s west coast among worst-hit areas; three fires still burning.
WSJ BY ALICIA A. CALDWELL AND JENNIFER CALFAS, AUG. 9, 2023 Oil dips as demand concerns mount; eyes on US inflation data
China's post-COVID economy has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel and is virtually "impossible" to revive.
REUTERS BY MUYU XU, EDITED BY GERMÁN & CO, AUGUST 10, 2023 Trump Is Spooked and His 2024 Rivals Know It
Donald Trump Pleads Not Guilty to 2020 Election Charges in Federal Court.
TIME BY PHILIP ELLIOTT, AUGUST 8, 2023 Ecuador declares a state of emergency after the killing of a presidential candidate at a campaign event
The victim, Fernando Villavicencio, a 59-year-old MP running on an anti-corruption platform, was one of eight candidates in the first round of the presidential election, which will are to be held as scheduled on August 20.
LE MONDE WHIT AP, PUBLISHED TODAY AT 3:38 AM (PARIS) Fallout from the Putsch in Niger Anger Against France Grows in Africa's "Coup Belt"
With the coup in Niger, Europe and the United States are losing their last reliable partner in the Sahel as Russia's influence grows. The development could severely inhibit the West's ability to fight terrorism in the region.
SPIEGEL BY MATTHIAS GEBAUER, CHRISTINA HEBEL, MARINA KORMBAKI, BRITTA SANDBERG AND FRITZ SCHAAP, AUGUST 9, 2023 Leaders of Amazon nations gather in Brazil for summit on rainforest’s future
Conclave represents handbrake turn in Brazilian government policy since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took power
THE GUARDIAN TOM PHILLIPS IN BELÉM, AUGUST 8, 2023 Image: A demonstrator in Niamey, Foto: Sam Mednick / dpaTry to understand the controversy surrounding the Sahel region in a single paragraph
The Sahel region faces complex challenges including poverty, conflict, and climate change, leading to food insecurity, displacement, and underdevelopment. The United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS) defines the Sahel political region as a group of ten countries, including Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Nigeria. In the vast Sahel region, stretching across ten countries, a deep-seated resentment persists towards France, stemming from its historically flawed colonial policies. The arduous quest for a stable and enduring democracy in this area remains besieged by numerous obstacles. Amidst this delicate state of affairs, Russia has adroitly capitalized on the prevailing discontent by shrewdly engaging in arms trading and offering military assistance in exchange for valuable resources. The formidable presence of the Wagner Group has further complicated the situation. Consequently, in the case of Niger, France finds itself at the forefront, suffering significant losses due to the repercussions of its colonial past and the imminent threat to its vital uranium reserves.
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Wildfires in Hawaii’s Maui Leave Six Dead as Evacuations Continue
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Donald Trump Pleads Not Guilty to 2020 Election Charges in Federal Court.
TIME bY PHILIP ELLIOTT, August 8, 2023Ecuador declares a state of emergency after the killing of a presidential candidate at a campaign event
The victim, Fernando Villavicencio, a 59-year-old MP running on an anti-corruption platform, was one of eight candidates in the first round of the presidential election, which will are to be held as scheduled on August 20.
Le Monde Whit AP, published today at 3:38 am (Paris)Fallout from the Putsch in Niger Anger Against France Grows in Africa's "Coup Belt"
With the coup in Niger, Europe and the United States are losing their last reliable partner in the Sahel as Russia's influence grows. The development could severely inhibit the West's ability to fight terrorism in the region.
Spiegel by Matthias Gebauer, Christina Hebel, Marina Kormbaki, Britta Sandberg and Fritz Schaap, August 9, 2023Leaders of Amazon nations gather in Brazil for summit on rainforest’s future
Conclave represents handbrake turn in Brazilian government policy since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took power
The Guardian Tom Phillips in Belém, August 8, 2023The AES Corporation is committed to accelerating the future of energy transitions by delivering greener and more innovative solutions. AES firmly believes that energy infrastructure plays a crucial role in ensuring the sustainability of our sector. Recently, the AES President and CEO, Andrés Gluski, had the privilege of moderating a captivating discussion titled "Harnessing Diplomacy for the Energy Transition and Universal Access" at the @EEI_Intl panel. This engaging conversation highlights the importance of collaboration and innovative approaches in driving the energy transition forward.
Smoke and flames filled the air from wildfires on Lahaina’s Front Street in Maui. PHOTO: ALAN DICKAR/ASSOCIATED PRESSWildfires in Hawaii’s Maui Leave Six Dead as Evacuations Continue
Tourist town of Lahaina on Maui’s west coast among worst-hit areas; three fires still burning
WSJ by Alicia A. Caldwell and Jennifer Calfas, Aug. 9, 2023 Six people have been confirmed dead after wildfires fueled by hurricane winds began burning in Maui overnight, destroying much of the popular tourist town Lahaina.
Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen said in a press conference Wednesday that it was too early to know how many homes, businesses or other structures had been destroyed or damaged. He said “many have been burned to the ground,” particularly in the Lahaina area on Maui’s west coast.
Three wildfires caused the damage and were still burning Wednesday afternoon, Bissen said. More than 1,000 acres of the island’s Upcountry, an agricultural inland area that includes Haleakala National Park, have been charred.
Evacuations have been ordered in 13 communities and towns and many roads closed around Maui, while roughly 2,100 people have taken refuge in shelters. State and county authorities have urged tourists to stay away from the region or leave Maui if they can.
Bissen said he didn’t know how the six people killed in the fires died and whether they were local residents or tourists.
Earlier Wednesday, smoke and fire caused people to flee to the ocean, Maui County officials said. The U.S. Coast Guard transported 12 people from the waters off Lahaina to safety.
Videos posted online show flames on both sides of a single lane of fleeing vehicles. Buildings, palm trees and cars are engulfed in flames. Others show wind-whipped walls of fire and smoke spreading through Lahaina. Devastated areas include Front Street, an eclectic road popular with tourists that is lined with shops, businesses and historic architecture.
Maui County officials said early Wednesday that all roads were closed in Lahaina. “Do NOT go to Lahaina town,” the County of Maui said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke issued an emergency proclamation Wednesday encouraging the suspension of all nonessential air travel to Maui. Luke, who is serving as acting governor while Gov. Josh Green returns from a trip, activated Hawaii’s National Guard to help with response efforts.
Ed Sniffen, director of the state’s Transportation Department, said Maui airports remained open and at least 2,000 people stayed in them overnight because they couldn’t get flights out. An additional 4,000 visitors were trying to leave the island, he said.
Hawaiian Airlines issued a waiver allowing travelers to receive a refund or change their plans without penalty. The airline is operating its full flight schedule and is working with the state of Hawaii to support the transfer of first responders and supplies as needed, a spokesman said.
Three wildfires were also burning on the island of Hawaii on Wednesday, though authorities didn’t report any deaths there.
Authorities said they had prepared for the arrival of Hurricane Dora on Tuesday, but not for the wildfires that followed. “We never expected a hurricane which did not touch down on our land would cause this kind of wildfires,” Luke said.
Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, adjutant general of Hawaii’s Department of Defense, said the wildfires were fueled by long-running dry conditions, low humidity and high winds. “That set the conditions for the wildfires,” said Hara, adding that he didn’t know how the blazes were sparked.
About 6,200 people were without power Wednesday in Maui, and cellphone service was down. At least 29 utility poles were knocked down amid the fires and sections of fiber-optic cables were also burned. Authorities said it was unclear how long power and phone lines might be down, but that the repair of fiber-optic cables could take a month or more.
Maui is the second-most visited Hawaiian island, after Oahu. In the first half of the year, there were nearly 1.5 million visitors to Maui, up 5.7% from the same period in 2022, according to the state’s department of business, economic development and tourism. Total visitor spending during that time was $3.47 billion, up about 25% from last year.
A view of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea, January 7, 2020. Carina Johansen/NTB Scanpix/via REUTERS File PhotoOil dips as demand concerns mount; eyes on US inflation data
China's post-COVID economy has yet to see the light at the end of the tunnel and is virtually "impossible" to revive.
Reuters by Muyu Xu, edited by Germán & Co, August 10, 2023Aug 10 (Reuters) - Oil retreated on Thursday from multi-month peaks hit in the previous session as higher U.S. crude inventory and sluggish economic data from China raised concerns about global fuel demand.
Brent crude fell 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $87.46 a barrel by 0408 GMT, after settling at its highest since Jan. 27 in the previous session.
West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) dropped 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $84.34, after settling at its highest since November 2022.
U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 5.9 million barrels in the last week to 445.6 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.6 million-barrel rise, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.
U.S. crude oil exports fell by 2.9 million barrels per day last week, the steepest fall on record, to 2.36 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the data. But the market is going to expect crude exports to go up because of the U.S. crude futures and Brent spread, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Weighing on market sentiment, the consumer sector in China fell into deflation, and factory-gate prices extended declines in July, as the world's second-largest economy struggled to revive demand.
"A 5% growth forecast from China, which looked way too modest to digest at the beginning of 2023 has started to look way too optimistic as China is failing to hold economic revival post-COVID," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst from Phillip Nova.
The market is awaiting July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States, due on Thursday, which will indicate the Fed's future monetary policy. Market watchers expected the CPI to show a slight year-over-year acceleration, while on a month-to-month basis, consumer prices are seen increasing 0.2%, the same rate as in June.
Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX.N) and Woodside Energy Group (WDS.AX) said on Thursday they are holding talks with unions to avert threatened strikes at gas facilities that together supply about 10% of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.
Concerns over LNG supply drove European gas prices to a nearly 2-month high on Wednesday and buoyed the demand outlook for diesel as alternative fuel.
However, oil prices remained supported by supply tightness worries as tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region could threaten shipment of Russian oil.
"Oil prices have been resilient to a weak economic showing out of China in recent weeks, with market participants choosing to place their focus on the tighter supplies conditions from Saudi Arabia and Russia's output cuts to continue their unwind from previous bearish positioning," wrote Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG, in a note.
Top exporter Saudi Arabia's plans to extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day for another month to include September. Russia also said it would cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.
Reporting by Muyu Xu in Singapore and Laura Sanicola in Washington; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman
Illustrations by Germán & CoTrump Is Spooked and His 2024 Rivals Know It
Donald Trump Pleads Not Guilty to 2020 Election Charges in Federal Court
TIME bY PHILIP ELLIOTT, August 8, 2023Back during the first months of the Trump presidency, then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich made a prescient—if not entirely original—observation about his one-time rival for the Republican nomination: “You don't put an animal in the corner without the animal striking back, [and] you don't put a politician in the corner … without them expecting to strike back at you.”
Kasich was correct in his assessment of Trump’s approach to leading Washington, and it’s a strategy that’s re-emerged as the ex-President faces increasingly urgent risks coming at him from all directions. Luck, it turns out, is a finite commodity. And a ginned-up gerbil can do more damage than a complacent cheetah.
Trump is under indictment in three separate criminal cases and is out on bond. A fourth criminal case out of Georgia could come as soon as this week, and preparations underway in Fulton County sure look like prosecutors in Atlanta are bracing for a chaotic scene. The trials would derail Trump for weeks if not months at the exact time he would need to be pandering to voters. And, despite being atop the polls of Republicans looking to be the presidential nominee in 2024, the risks to both his frontrunner status and his freedom are real enough that it’s sending him spiraling in search of a distraction.
“IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” That’s what Trump posted on his Truth Social account over the weekend, prompting Justice Department lawyers to ask a judge in the case involving election interference to issue a protective order. The not-at-all-subtle warning was part of a litany of all-caps threats that brought to mind various unhinged stretches of posts when he used to frequent the platform previously known as Twitter. When Trump wasn’t complaining that he was a victim of a politically motivated prosecution (“WHAT THE DEPARTMENT OF INJUSTICE IS DOING TO ME IS THE SAME THING DONE BY THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES ALL OVER THE WORLD.”), he was going after the U.S. team for its loss in the Women’s World Cup, singling out star player (and Trump critic) Megan Rapinoe for an errant foot: “WOKE EQUALS FAILURE. Nice shot Megan, the USA is going to Hell!!! MAGA.”
Sure, Trump’s social-media footprint has never been a particularly sophisticated logic-based realm. But for the first time since he joined the presidential fray back in 2015, Trump sounds genuinely scared, like he finally seems to be realizing his luck may be unique but not limitless. His knack for defying political gravity has been evidenced since his first campaign, when any other nominee would have been felled by the same series of missteps, scandals, and self-immolation; Trump instead somehow rode the fire-engulfed dumpster all the way to the North Lawn of the White House.
Trump has long enjoyed lashing out at those he perceives as insufficiently loyal. No one has been immune, be they real challengers like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or just perceived threats, as were the cases of Pope Francis, George W. Bush, and Megyn Kelly. But these latest attacks, somehow, feel different in a changed environment that no longer guarantees fearful fealty from his rivals. Where he previously launched his rockets with abandon, he is now being more direct to respond to would-be usurpers.
To Trump’s credit, his reflex appears to be more tactical than in the past.
Take, for instance, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the closest thing that Trump has to a rival for the nomination next year. While Trump enjoys a massive lead over the Anti-Woke Warrior from the Sunshine State, DeSantis has been working on retooling a failure-to-launch bid, and it seems like he’s rethinking his deference to Trump. In an interview that aired on NBC News this week, DeSantis for the first time finally stopped pussyfooting around whether Trump won in 2020. "No, of course he lost," DeSantis said. "Joe Biden’s the President." After more than 1,000 days of playing coy games and dodging any declaration about Biden’s legitimacy, DeSantis has finally concluded it is time to treat Trump like the man to dethrone.
DeSantis, who on Tuesday replaced his top political hand, had been walking the line. For months, the default has felt like a backhanded defense of Trump at every turn, living both in contempt and cower of the ex-President. But two weeks ago, during a swing through Iowa, DeSantis subtly jabbed his one-time self-considered patron. “I don’t consider myself to be an entertainer,” DeSantis said in Osceola. “I’m a leader. And that’s what you get for me, somebody that will deliver results.” The ceiling of the distillery where he spoke didn’t collapse, and DeSantis marched on. (Trump, naturally, told a conservative radio host that DeSantis should drop out for the good of the party.)
DeSantis’ footing—and Trump’s counter-punch—has seemed to grow stronger in recent days. Until recently, only former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has been an unabashed critic of Trump’s return to power, a lonely spot but one that is starting to have some pals testing its viability. After all, 78 looming felony charges gives even the most mild of candidates permission to at least raise the question of Trump’s true viability in a rematch against Joe Biden. “This election needs to be about Jan. 20, 2025, not Jan. 6, 2021,” DeSantis said in Waverly, Iowa, during that weekend bus tour.
Similarly, former Vice President Mike Pence—the one who spent four years as Trump’s loyal and self-censoring understudy—has started to rev up his critique of the ex-boss, and thus draw his ire. While Pence has hinted at his antipathy toward Trump and, in particular, his former boss’ conduct on Jan. 6, 2021, the intensity has increased of late. And not coincidentally, Trump has targeted more of his public attacks on Pence, as he realizes that his former vice president poses a real threat to his legal woes, given his first-hand access to the West Wing during the final weeks of Trump’s tour there.
Pence predicted Trump’s realization was coming, telling The New York Times on July 30: “I think we’re coming to a fork in the road.”
It’s more of a pitchfork, based on Trump’s reaction. “He’s delusional, and now he wants to show he’s a tough guy,” Trump sniped at his former running mate, who testified for more than five hours before the federal grand jury back in April and spoke candidly about the events before and during the Jan. 6 uprising. Should Trump move forward to trial, Pence may end up testifying—a development that could move the actual argument against a third Trump nomination away from the theater-focused debate stage and to a far more extraordinary courtroom testimony, one where Trump would have to sit in silence and hear his one-time loyalist turn over all of their secrets.
Trump’s allies have started to pick up on the shift, too. During a stop last week in Londonderry, N.H., hecklers stood outside the American Legion post and held signs calling Pence a traitor. Inside, skeptics asked Pence point-blank why he didn’t take steps to keep Trump in power, even in electoral defeat.
Unflinching, Pence said he followed the Constitution and, ever one to cite Scripture down to chapter and verse, urged voters in that lead-off primary state to look up Article Two, Section One, Clause Three.
Similarly, Trump’s best ally in the field vowed to find everyone involved in investigating Trump and fire them. The maneuver won Vivek Ramaswamy applause and tracks with his larger strategy of running against Trump while also being his biggest booster in the field. Other rivals, all the while, have picked up the House Republicans’ chorus that the Department of Justice has been weaponized by Biden and his cronies.
Elsewhere, of course, criticism of Trump has been a moderated rumble through the GOP campaign to this point. With the first debate scheduled for Aug. 23—and Trump’s participation an open question—the GOP will be watching closely if Christie’s open antagonism is no longer the clear loser of a strategy that it seemed a few months ago. The party remains loyal to Trump, but the sober reality of nominating a thrice-indicted ex-President is finally sinking in. And Trump, it seems, is starting to sense that and responding to the threats he had previously—and maybe wrongly—assumed were immaterial.
“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.
Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.
Image by Karen Toro/ReutersEcuador declares a state of emergency after the killing of a presidential candidate at a campaign event
The victim, Fernando Villavicencio, a 59-year-old MP running on an anti-corruption platform, was one of eight candidates in the first round of the presidential election, which will are to be held as scheduled on August 20.
Le Monde Whit AP, published today at 3:38 am (Paris)A woman is assisted after being wounded after shots were fired at the end of a rally of Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in Quito, on August 9, 2023. STR / AFP
An Ecuadorian presidential candidate known for speaking up against cartels and corruption was shot and killed Wednesday, August 9, at a political rally in the capital, an attack that comes amid a startling wave of gang-driven violence in the South American country.
President Guillermo Lasso confirmed the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio and suggested organized crime was behind his slaying. Villavicencio was one of eight candidates in the August 20 presidential vote, though not the frontrunner.
"I assure you that this crime will not go unpunished," Lasso said in a statement. "Organized crime has gone too far, but they will feel the full weight of the law." Ecuador’s attorney general’s office said that one suspect died in custody from wounds sustained in a firefight after the killing, and police detained six suspects following raids in Quito.
In response to the attack, Lasso declared a state of emergency for 60 days throughout the country on Thursday, August 10. "The Armed Forces as of this moment are mobilized throughout the national territory to guarantee the security of citizens, the tranquility of the country and the free and democratic elections of August 20," Lasso said in an address broadcast on YouTube after a meeting of the Security Cabinet and other senior officials.
The announcement came as part of a joint statement with Diana Atamaint, the head of the National Electoral Council, who said: "The date of the elections scheduled for August 20 remain unalterable, in compliance with the constitutional and legal mandate."
Authorities said that at least nine others were injured in the Wednesday shooting, including officers and a congressional candidate, in what they described as a “terrorist act.”
The President also declared three days of national mourning "to honor the memory of a patriot, of Fernando Villavicencio Valencia."
Brave final words
In his final speech, before he was killed, Villavicencio promised a roaring crowd that he would root out corruption and lock up the country’s “thieves.” Prior to the shooting, Villavicencio said he had received multiple death threats, including from affiliates of Mexico's Sinaloa Cartel, one of a slew of international organized crime groups that now operate in Ecuador. He said his campaign represented a threat to such groups. “Here I am showing my face. I'm not scared of them,” Villavicencio said in a statement, naming detained crime boss José Adolfo Macías by his alias “Fito.”
The killing comes as Ecuador is rattled by rising violent killings and drug trafficking. As drug traffickers have begun to use the country’s coastal ports, Ecuadorians have reeled from violence not seen for decades. The sounds of gunfire ring in many major cities as rival gangs battle for control, and gangs have recruited children. Just last month, the mayor of the port city of Manta was shot and killed. On July 26, Lasso declared a state of emergency covering two provinces and the country's prison system in an effort to stem the violence.
Supporter Ida Paez said that Villavicencio's campaign had given her hope that the country could overcome the gangs. At the rally, she said, “We were happy. Fernando even danced. His last words were, if someone messes with the people, he is messing with my family.”
Videos of the rally on social media appear to show Villavicencio walking out of the event surrounded by guards. The video then shows the candidate getting into a white pickup truck before gunshots are heard, followed by screams and commotion around the truck. This sequence of events was confirmed to The Associated Press by Patricio Zuquilanda, Villavicencio’s campaign adviser. The politician, 59, was the candidate for the Build Ecuador Movement.
He was married and is survived by five children.
A critical voice against corruption
Zuquilanda told the Associated Press the candidate had received death threats before the shooting, which he had reported to authorities, resulting in one detention. He called on international authorities to take action against the violence, attributing it to rising violence and drug trafficking. "The Ecuadorian people are crying and Ecuador is mortally wounded," he said. "Politics cannot lead to the death of any member of society."
Other candidates echoed Zuquilanda in their demands for action, with presidential frontrunner Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution party saying: “When they touch one of us, they touch all of us." Former vice president and candidate Otto Sonnenholzner said in a news conference, "We are dying, drowning in a sea of tears and we do not deserve to live like this. We demand that you do something".
Villavicencio was one of the most critical voices against corruption, especially during the government of former President Rafael Correa from 2007 to 2017. He was also an independent journalist who investigated corruption in previous governments, later entering politics as an anti-graft campaigner.
He filed many judicial complaints against high-ranking members of the Correa government, including against the ex-president himself. He was sentenced to 18 months in prison for defamation over his criticisms of Correa, and fled to indigenous territory in Ecuador, later receiving asylum in neighboring Peru. Edison Romo, a former military intelligence colonel, said the anti-corruption complaints made Villavicencio “a threat to international criminal organizations.”
A context of political turmoil
President Lasso, a conservative former banker, was elected in 2021 on a business-friendly platform and clashed from the start with the left-leaning majority coalition in the National Assembly. A snap election was called after Lasso dissolved the National Assembly by decree in May, in a move to avoid being impeached over allegations that he failed to intervene to end a faulty contract between the state-owned oil transport company and a private tanker company.
Ecuador’s constitution includes a provision that allows the president to disband the assembly during a political crisis, but then requires new elections for both the assembly and the presidency. The country has faced a series of political upheavals in recent years.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
A demonstrator in Niamey, Foto: Sam Mednick / dpaFallout from the Putsch in Niger Anger Against France Grows in Africa's "Coup Belt"
With the coup in Niger, Europe and the United States are losing their last reliable partner in the Sahel as Russia's influence grows. The development could severely inhibit the West's ability to fight terrorism in the region.
Spiegel by Matthias Gebauer, Christina Hebel, Marina Kormbaki, Britta Sandberg and Fritz Schaap, August 9, 2023It has been just a few hours since the gate to the French Embassy went up in flames, thousands paraded through the streets of Niamey and Russian flags flew under the hot Savannah sky. Boubaca Adamou is sitting in his small house in the Fada-Loubatou district with around 20 of his fellow campaigners, rejoicing in the destruction.
A 54-year-old teacher wearing a green shirt and khaki pants, Adamou is an anti-French activist and a supporter of the M62, a movement eager to expel all foreign troops from Niger. In his view, the July 26 military coup that swept democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum out of office was redemption. The mood in the room is cheerful, with the men sitting on white plastic chairs drinking tea, some smoking. They all agree that France has no place in Niger.
"Bazoum was a French puppet," Adamou says. He and his friends claim that the democratic elections won by Bazoum in 2021 were marred by irregularities and manipulated by the French. They believe that only France actually profits from Niger's uranium deposits and not the country itself.
Now, they believe, Niger's sovereignty is at stake. The former colonial power, Adamou explains, may have granted the country independence in 1960, but the French continue to subjugate Niger to this day. Corruption is rampant across the country, and that, he says, must come to an end.
6,000 Kilometers of Military Rule
On July 26, the spokesman for the Nigerien military stated that security forces had decided to "put an end to the regime" – allegedly because of the deteriorating security situation and bad governance.
It was the fifth military coup in Niger since the country's independence, but this overthrow is different from the previous ones. It is the latest in a series of such putsches: Almost the entire Sahel, a strategically important region of Africa, is now ruled by regimes installed by a coup, with six successful overthrows in the region since 2020. The area some are calling the "Coup Belt" stretches south of the Sahara, nearly 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles) long, from Guinea on the west coast of the continent to Sudan on the east coast. In Mali, where an estimated 1,500 mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group are stationed, and in Burkina Faso, Moscow has established itself as an important supporter of the new rulers, with both countries now positioning themselves explicitly against the former colonial power France.
And once again, following the coup in Niger, the question is unavoidable: What role might Russia and its Wagner mercenaries have played? And: Could the new regime turn to Russia? So far, the Nigerien junta hasn't suggested it will go in that direction. Shortly after the coup, it promised to honor international commitments – and on Friday, it ended military cooperation with former colonial power France.
In Niger, as in much of the Sahel area, France played a significant role until recent years. Paris released its African colonies into independence in the 1960s, yet it continues to exert massive influence to the present day through military and economic cooperation and close ties with elites. This intricate web of corruption and old dependencies in France's ex-colonies is referred to as "Françafrique."
Russia's Opportunity
Niger, like the entire Coup Belt, has now become a theater of geopolitical power struggles. Russia has emerged as the continent's largest arms supplier, sending Wagner mercenaries to autocrats in need. After Mali and Burkina Faso turned to the Kremlin, the French withdrew from those countries as well.
Representatives of the Russian leadership officially condemned the coup in Niger. But Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner troops, praised the coup in an audio message as the Nigerien people's righteous "struggle" against their country's "colonizers" and offered his services. The coup is a good opportunity for the unscrupulous entrepreneur to expand his business in Africa. And after his failed uprising against the Russian army leadership, he can prove to President Vladimir Putin that he continues to be of service to the Kremlin in Africa. Niger, with its rich uranium deposits, is precisely the kind of country that Prigozhin is keen to exploit.
Indeed, that is another reason why Western governments, including that of Germany, are extremely concerned following the coup. With Niger, they have to fear not only losing their most important partner in the Sahel, but also the last reliable one. Around 1,500 French and 1,100 American soldiers are still stationed in the country, and Niger is of significant geostrategic importance to the U.S. The American military operates several drone bases in the country, which it uses for reconnaissance missions throughout the region, including Libya and Sudan. Around 100 soldiers with Germany's armed forces, the Bundeswehr, are also stationed in the country. The European Union, too, has long regarded Niger as an important partner and Brussels has long been seeking the country's help in curbing irregular migration from Africa. Niger is home to a number of refugee camps.
Misjudgment in the West
In a strategy paper published by the German government this spring, Niger is still highlighted as a prime example of security and development cooperation. The federal government in Berlin viewed it as an anchor of stability in the region. Indeed, Germany spent years training Nigerien elite soldiers in a mission called Gazelle, which began in 2018 and ended at the end of 2022. Now, the Bundeswehr is organizing its withdrawal from Mali.
The German government's crisis team has met several times at the Foreign Ministry since the upheaval. And whereas the French are flying their compatriots out on special planes due to fears of violent attacks, the German government has only issued a travel warning.
According to an internal analysis, the anger of the Nigeriens is directed against former colonial power France and not against the Germans. One representative of the German government even expresses quiet understanding for the resentment against Paris. The source says the French continued to behave in an arrogant and patronizing manner in the region.
The Demise of Democratic Governments
Niger is one of the world's poorest countries. The elites have a reputation for corruption, and the state has no presence in many areas of the country, which ranks 189th out of 191 on the United Nations' Human Development Index. Furthermore, Islamist terror plagues the population, and offshoots of both the Islamic State and al-Qaida continue to spread in the Sahel. Still, unlike its neighboring countries, Western aid contributed to some improvement of the security situation in Niger in the past year.
"What we are witnessing is the demise of democratic governments in this region," says Alain Antil, director of the Center for Sub-Saharan Africa at the Institut français des relations internationales in Paris (IFRI).
In June, IFRI published a study on anti-French sentiment in many African countries, concluding that anti-French sentiment in the region is growing. But it is also increasingly being fomented and tapped by the political elites of these countries to explain grievances or their own failures. France has been turned into the scapegoat.
The study identifies another factor for the growing anti-French sentiment in the targeted propaganda spread on social media channels, a campaign which is financed and nourished by Russia. "Still, it would be a mistake to say that Russia in particular created the anti-France attitude in these countries in the first place," says Antil. "It was already there, but it was tapped and exploited by the Russians as well as by the rulers of the respective countries when it served their interests."
A Russian Disinformation Campaign
Since the passage of a law in April 2022 allowing the long-term deployment of foreign troops to fight terrorism, there have been several anti-French protests in Niamey as well. Experts agree that Moscow was not involved in the coup, but they say that Russian disinformation campaigns have likely influenced the mood among the populace.
The group M62, which also supports Boubaca Adamou, appears to have played an important role. According to experts, the group was long ago infiltrated by Wagner people, and its actions are supported by Russian propaganda.
Moreover, according to French military expert Pierre Servent, the movement pays participants in anti-French demonstrations and provides them with flags: Russian ones to wave, French ones to burn. In Mali, too, say diplomatic sources, the leading anti-French movement is co-financed through the Russian Embassy.
Power Struggles with the Military
The cause of the coup in Niger appears to be a conflict between the president and some of his commanders. Bazoum, it is said, didn't want to extend the term of General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the commander of his presidential guard. In addition, Bazoum reportedly rejected closer cooperation with the military rulers of neighboring countries – ties that many in the Nigerien military were in favor of. A short time later, General Tchiani declared himself the country's leader.
The situation has been escalating ever since. A week ago Sunday, the West African economic alliance ECOWAS announced it would use force if necessary for the reinstatement of President Bazoum and issued an ultimatum of one week for that to happen. That deadline passed with nothing but the scheduling of a meeting on Thursday of this week to discuss developments. The German government considers it unlikely that fighting will break out, an assessment is based on the fact that ECOWAS has no troops of its own. And the alliance's major troop contributors, such as Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire, are already at the limits of their capabilities, he said.
The military juntas in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which are already tied to Russia, announced they would interpret any intervention in Niger as a declaration of war. The military rulers in Guinea joined the chorus as well. It would appear that an alliance of the coup plotters is already forming.
Early last week, on August 1, France began evacuating its own citizens and other Europeans. That same evening, M62 began calling for the borders to be closed and for foreigners to be held in a hostage-like state until the foreign troops left the country.
A New Anti-Terror Plan
Then, on Wednesday, a Nigerien delegation visited the Malian capital of Bamak, followed by speculation that it might have asked for Wagner mercenaries to be sent. Mali works closely with the Russian mercenary group.
For Europe and the United States, the coup now raises the question of how to fight Islamist terrorism in the region in the future. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel has surpassed the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia to become the epicenter of global terrorism. Its data shows that almost half of the approximately 6,700 people killed in terrorist acts around the world in 2022 were located in the Sahel. In 2007, the region accounted for just 1 percent of such deaths.
The West must find new ways of preventing jihadists from spreading further in the region, says Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He says the international approach so far has largely been to fight them on the ground. But now, he argues, it is necessary to move to a containment strategy. "That means recognizing that the jihadist forces will continue to exist," he says. Some might think that means giving up on the Sahel. But how can you help in the fight against terrorism in the region if you aren't welcome?"
It's Sunday, July 30, and an aide to ousted President Bazoum named Adamou Amadou is sitting in his home in a white undershirt and chain-smoking. He would actually like to welcome all of the West in the country. He keeps looking at his mobile phone, which won't stop ringing, with an expressionless face. "The international community must remain strong," he says. "And if necessary use force to restore constitutional order in Niger." Only a minority of Nigeriens, he says wearily, actually oppose France. He says Niger needs its partners to survive. That the coup will set the country back economically by up to 20 years.
Niger, the aide sitting lonely and sweating in his quiet house fears, will now descend into chaos.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoLeaders of Amazon nations gather in Brazil for summit on rainforest’s future
Conclave represents handbrake turn in Brazilian government policy since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took power
The Guardian Tom Phillips in Belém, August 8, 2023The leaders of Amazon nations including Brazil, Colombia and Peru have gathered in the Brazilian city of Belém for a rare conclave about the future of the world’s largest rainforest amid growing concern over the global climate emergency.
The environmental summit – convened by Brazil’s leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – represents a handbrake turn in Brazilian government policy after four years of Amazon destruction and international isolation under the country’s previous leader, Jair Bolsonaro.
Those who have flown into Belém for the meeting include Bolivia’s president, Luis Arce, Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, Guyana’s prime minister, Mark Phillips, and Peru’s Dina Boluarte. Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, pulled out at the last minute blaming an ear infection. The other members of the eight-country Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO), Ecuador and Suriname, have sent senior representatives.
“This is a landmark moment,” Lula tweeted on Tuesday morning as his guests were shepherded to the talks by police motorcycle outriders. “What we are doing in defence of the Amazon and its population is historic.”
The Peruvian president, Dina Boluarte (left) talked with the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Amazon summit meeting. Photograph: Ricardo Stuckert/Brazilian Presidency/AFP/Getty Images
At the summit’s opening session, Lula said the “severe escalation of the climate crisis” meant the need for regional cooperation was “more pressing than ever before”.
As politicians began to arrive in the sweltering riverside city on Monday, Brazil’s environment minister, Marina Silva, said: “We come here with the clarity … that the Amazon is drastically threatened … that we cannot allow it to reach a point of no return … and that it will be impossible to reverse this process if we work in isolation.”
Among the issues to be discussed at ACTO’s first such meeting in 14 years are a possible deal to halt deforestation by 2030 and joint efforts to fight rampant illegal mining and the organised crime groups which are tightening their grip on the rainforest region. Colombia’s president has been pushing for an end to oil and gas exploration in the Amazon, although Brazilian moves to develop an oilfield near the mouth of the Amazon River complicate those efforts.
A final communique, known as the Belém Declaration, is expected to be unveiled by ACTO members of at the end of the two-day meeting. Experts say it is likely to contain collaborative strategies for fighting deforestation and financing sustainable development initiatives, and the creation of a law enforcement centre in the Brazilian city of Manaus to promote cooperation among regional police forces.
The challenges facing the group’s members are almost as immense as the Amazon itself – a sprawling 6.7m sq km region that, if it was a single country, would be the seventh largest on Earth. As well as nearly 50 million people, the region is home to an estimated 400bn trees belonging to 16,000 different species, more than 1,300 species of bird, tens of thousands of species of plant, and 20% of the world’s freshwater resources. It is also estimated to contain more than 120bn tonnes of carbon, making it a vital carbon sink.
But over the past half-century, the advance of cattle ranching, logging, mining, soy farming and oil exploration has devastated huge swathes of the region, pushing it towards what scientists fear could be an irreversible tipping point which would cause the forest to die off.
Transnational mafia groups have also expanded their footprint, with one senior Brazilian police chief recently warning “criminal insurgents” could commandeer parts of the Amazon with dire consequences for the rainforest and its inhabitants.
Indigenous activists called for protection ahead of the presidents’ Amazon summit. Photograph: Filipe Bispo/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
In the days leading up to Tuesday’s summit, thousands of Indigenous activists gathered for a parallel summit in Belém to demand greater government support for their quest to defend the rainforest. The perils of such efforts were laid bare last year with the murders of British journalist Dom Phillips and the Brazilian Indigenous expert Bruno Pereira. Activists are also pushing for a pledge to protect 80% of the Amazon by 2025.
Campaigners voiced a mix of relief that Lula had brought an end to Bolsonaro’s era of Amazon chaos, and anxiety that Brazil’s conservative-dominated congress might prevent the president from enacting his ambitious environmental agenda, which has already achieved a 42.5% drop in deforestation.
“We know we have so many enemies in congress who don’t like us,” said Alessandra Korap, a leader of the Munduruku people.
Korap urged Lula to oppose oil exploration in the Amazon and take a stand against highly controversial draft legislation that would invalidate Indigenous claims to lands such groups could not prove they occupied when Brazil’s 1988 constitution was enacted. “This would mean the death of our peoples,” Korap said.
Offshore Wind Runs Into Rising Costs and Delays
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Offshore Wind Runs Into Rising Costs and Delays
New York Times, Vattenfall, a Swedish energy company, has been facing significant challenges in its plans to develop one of the world's largest offshore wind complexes in the North Sea off eastern England. The troubled project has encountered rising costs and delays, prompting concerns about the effectiveness of offshore wind farms in addressing climate change.The preliminary work carried out by Vattenfall over the years seemed promising, with aspirations of harnessing the power of offshore wind to contribute to cleaner and more sustainable energy generation. However, as the project progressed, it became evident that it was not without its obstacles.
Image by Germán & CoImage by Germán & CoSome troubled projects are raising concerns about the role to be played by offshore wind farms in tackling climate change.
NYT By Stanley Reed and Ivan Penn, Aug. 7, 2023“Vattenfall, a Swedish energy company, has for years been doing preliminary work for what would be one of the world’s largest offshore wind complexes, in the North Sea off eastern England.
Now, there are questions about whether this project will ever be built. Last month, Vattenfall said it would halt the first of three phases of the wind farm complex, the Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone, which is projected to provide power for about four million homes in Britain.
Vattenfall blamed rapidly escalating costs for equipment and construction expenses, which they said had climbed as much as 40 percent over the past few quarters. The estimated price tag for the three phases has risen to 13 billion pounds, or about $16.6 billion, from £10 billion.
“With the new market conditions, it simply doesn’t make sense to continue the project,” Helene Bistrom, head of business area wind at Vattenfall, said during a video presentation. The decision led Vattenfall, which is owned by the Swedish government, to write-down more than $500 million.
Vattenfall’s pullback added to the widespread alarm unfolding across the offshore industry about rapidly increasing costs, due partly to supply chain issues and rising demand.
In recent months, several developers in the United States have sought to renegotiate power supply contracts, scrapping them in at least one case, and Orsted, a Danish company that is the world’s largest offshore wind developer, warned that a major project, Hornsea 3, in Britain could be “at risk” without more government support.
With interest rates shooting up, financing the billions of dollars in investment that go into these installations has also become far more expensive.
On Monday, the turbine maker Siemens Energy reported a net loss of 2.9 billion euros ($3.2 billion) for the April-June quarter, largely because of problems tied to “increased product costs and ramp-up challenges” in its offshore energy business.
“There’s very few projects that are immune to the inflationary impact,” said Finlay Clark, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a consulting firm.
Europe’s Shift Away From Fossil Fuels
The European Union has begun a transition to greener forms of energy. But financial and geopolitical considerations could complicate the efforts.
A Competitive Field: The E.U. is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but incentives offered by the Biden administration are luring companies to the United States.
A Wind Pioneer: Henrik Stiesdal helped design the first modern wind turbines. A thousand patents later, he’s a green tech entrepreneur rolling out new innovations.
Nuclear Power: Germany shut down its three remaining reactors, just as other European countries look to expand their reliance on nuclear energy.
Ban on Gas-Powered Cars: Germany has reached an agreement with the E.U. to allow the sale of vehicles that burn fuels made from renewable energy past 2035, resolving a dispute over a proposed ban on internal combustion engines.
Rising costs for wind developers are a problem for governments in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. Many countries are counting on an enormous and rapid expansion of offshore wind to achieve a significant portion of their renewable energy goals.
“We are wasting time here,” Morten Dyrholm, group senior vice president for corporate affairs at Vestas Wind Systems, the Danish turbine maker, said of the industry’s problems. “We need to grow the sector quite dramatically.”
Mr. Dyrholm and others in the industry say the inflation problems are a warning sign that governments need to change their system of awarding offshore wind licenses.
The procedures for obtaining the rights to build wind farms vary in different countries but often involve an auction of seabed leases followed, sometimes years later, by agreements that set the price paid by power companies for the electricity generated.
These arrangements, designed to drive down power prices for consumers and, often, to maximize revenues from lease sales, should be broadened to take into account other factors, some industry leaders say. An auction for seabed rights awarded by Scotland in 2022 is cited as a model because it put greater emphasis on factors like the ability of wind companies to develop suppliers, and the experience of the companies.
The debate could open the way for more power deals with corporations like Amazon and Microsoft, whose data centers are hungry consumers of electricity. Large businesses might be more flexible partners for wind developers than government officials who tend to say “this is the rule,” said Deepa Venkateswaran, a utilities analyst at Bernstein, a research firm.
Renewable energy programs like Britain’s — which is designed to encourage financial backing by providing a guaranteed price to wind developers, and also to gradually drive down charges paid by consumers — attracted billions in investment when inflation was low. Now, in a very different world, after the disruptions of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Britain is taking fire for policies that could make wind projects uneconomical.
“I am afraid the U.K. has gone from being one of the best governments in Europe on offshore wind to one of the worst,” said Giles Dickson, chief executive of WindEurope, a trade body.
Turbine parts at Orsted’s pre-assembly site in Taichung Port in Taiwan, in March.Credit...Ann Wang/Reuters
A British government spokesman responded: “We understand there are supply chain pressures for the sector globally, not just in the U.K., and we are listening to companies’ concerns.”
The inflation problems are mainly hitting offshore wind farms in late stages of development rather than those already generating power.
Offshore projects can require a decade to progress from planning stages to generating power. That means agreements on issues like the power price may be years old before the turbines are in place and generating electricity.
That system worked when inflation was negligible and demand for turbines and other equipment was relatively subdued. Now, as a growing number of developers look to secure everything necessary to undertake the projects — from wind turbines, which cost millions of dollars, to the services of specialized construction ships, to bank financing — they discover that the price tags have suddenly soared. Mr. Dyrholm estimates that prices of wind turbines alone have increased 30 percent in the past year.
“The costs have risen, and you have a mismatch,” said Bernard Looney, chief executive of BP, which is an investor, with Equinor, a Norwegian company, in three offshore wind projects in the Atlantic that would supply power to around two million households in New York State. Equinor and BP have petitioned state authorities to renegotiate their power contracts.
Similarly, developers in Britain and elsewhere don’t seem to want to completely jettison projects. Many are trying to renegotiate the deals or push governments to alter the formats of future auctions. Some are terminating existing contracts to supply power to utilities and seeking new ones — or threatening such moves, figuring there will be plenty of demand for clean power in the future.
Walking away from contracts signed years ago has become “the prudent commercial course” even with the risk of financial penalties, SouthCoast Wind, a project part-owned by Shell that would be located in the Atlantic near Martha’s Vineyard, in Massachusetts, said in a statement in June.
Another Massachusetts proposal, Commonwealth Wind, which is owned by Avangrid, a U.S. subsidiary of the Spanish energy giant Iberdrola, has terminated its power supply contract and plans to seek a new deal in a future auction, the company said.
“The economics are challenging,” said Stephanie McClellan, executive director of Turn Forward, an offshore wind advocacy organization in the United States.
Equinor’s floating wind turbines about 25 miles off the Scottish coast, in 2021.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Despite the soured deals, interest in offshore wind remains strong. In a recent auction in Germany, BP and TotalEnergies in France agreed to pay around $14 billion over three decades for offshore tracts.
The German deals differ from others because the companies are simply paying for the rights to develop sea bottom, and they will negotiate what they get paid for the electricity at a later day.
Such deals are attractive to a corporate giant like BP, which has the financial firepower to make them happen and would be freer to do what it wants with the power. Mr. Looney said he hoped to steer away from the long-term power contracts, preferring instead to try to squeeze more value from wind-generated electricity by using it to make green hydrogen, a still scarce clean fuel, or charge electric vehicles.
“We’d like to do something with those electrons; take them and put them to use,” he said.
But there are only a handful of companies with the heft of BP and TotalEnergies. Whether nations can achieve their offshore ambitions through such commercial deals remains to be seen. Critics say that charging high prices for leases will lead to higher power prices for consumers.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
News Round-up, August 8, 2023
Most reads…
Offshore Wind Runs Into Rising Costs and Delays
Some troubled projects are raising concerns about the role to be played by offshore wind farms in tackling climate change.
NYT BY STANLEY REED AND IVAN PENN, AUG. 7, 2023 Climate Is Now a Culture War Issue
The issue of anti-environmentalism is undeniably influenced by true greed. However, climate denial has morphed into something more than just a battle against acknowledging the science of climate change. It has become a front in the culture wars, with right-wing individuals rejecting scientific consensus not only due to their general aversion to science but also out of a visceral opposition to anything that liberals support.
NYT BY PAUL KRUGMAN, OPINION COLUMNIST, AUG. 7, 2023 Biden Plans to Run on Protecting Democracy, as Trump Faces Charges of Subverting It
President Joe Biden speaks about his economic plan "Bidenomics" at Auburn Manufacturing Inc. in Auburn, Maine, on July 28, 2023.
TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT, AUGUST 7, 2023 How a Former Oil Guy Is Using Fracking Tech to Boost Geothermal Energy
TIME BY ALEJANDRO DE LA GARZA, AUGUST 7, 2023 Brazil’s Lula pushes end to deforestation, stumbles on fossil fuels
Summit will be a major political and diplomatic test for the Brazilian leader.
POLITICO EU BY LOUISE GUILLOT, AUGUST 7, 2023 Exclusive: Defying war risk, European traders store gas in Ukraine
REUTERS BY JAN LOPATKA AND MAREK STRZELECKI, AUGUST 8, 2023Image by Germán & CoMost read…
Offshore Wind Runs Into Rising Costs and Delays
Some troubled projects are raising concerns about the role to be played by offshore wind farms in tackling climate change.
NYT By Stanley Reed and Ivan Penn, Aug. 7, 2023Climate Is Now a Culture War Issue
The issue of anti-environmentalism is undeniably influenced by true greed. However, climate denial has morphed into something more than just a battle against acknowledging the science of climate change. It has become a front in the culture wars, with right-wing individuals rejecting scientific consensus not only due to their general aversion to science but also out of a visceral opposition to anything that liberals support.
NYT By Paul Krugman, Opinion Columnist, Aug. 7, 2023Biden Plans to Run on Protecting Democracy, as Trump Faces Charges of Subverting It
President Joe Biden speaks about his economic plan "Bidenomics" at Auburn Manufacturing Inc. in Auburn, Maine, on July 28, 2023.
TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT, AUGUST 7, 2023 How a Former Oil Guy Is Using Fracking Tech to Boost Geothermal Energy
TIME BY ALEJANDRO DE LA GARZA, AUGUST 7, 2023Brazil’s Lula pushes end to deforestation, stumbles on fossil fuels
Summit will be a major political and diplomatic test for the Brazilian leader.
POLITICO EU BY LOUISE GUILLOT, AUGUST 7, 2023 Exclusive: Defying war risk, European traders store gas in Ukraine
REUTERS By Jan Lopatka and Marek Strzelecki, August 8, 2023
At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Image by Germán & CoOffshore Wind Runs Into Rising Costs and Delays
Some troubled projects are raising concerns about the role to be played by offshore wind farms in tackling climate change.
NYT By Stanley Reed and Ivan Penn, Aug. 7, 2023“Vattenfall, a Swedish energy company, has for years been doing preliminary work for what would be one of the world’s largest offshore wind complexes, in the North Sea off eastern England.
Now, there are questions about whether this project will ever be built. Last month, Vattenfall said it would halt the first of three phases of the wind farm complex, the Norfolk Offshore Wind Zone, which is projected to provide power for about four million homes in Britain.
Vattenfall blamed rapidly escalating costs for equipment and construction expenses, which they said had climbed as much as 40 percent over the past few quarters. The estimated price tag for the three phases has risen to 13 billion pounds, or about $16.6 billion, from £10 billion.
“With the new market conditions, it simply doesn’t make sense to continue the project,” Helene Bistrom, head of business area wind at Vattenfall, said during a video presentation. The decision led Vattenfall, which is owned by the Swedish government, to write-down more than $500 million.
Vattenfall’s pullback added to the widespread alarm unfolding across the offshore industry about rapidly increasing costs, due partly to supply chain issues and rising demand.
In recent months, several developers in the United States have sought to renegotiate power supply contracts, scrapping them in at least one case, and Orsted, a Danish company that is the world’s largest offshore wind developer, warned that a major project, Hornsea 3, in Britain could be “at risk” without more government support.
With interest rates shooting up, financing the billions of dollars in investment that go into these installations has also become far more expensive.
On Monday, the turbine maker Siemens Energy reported a net loss of 2.9 billion euros ($3.2 billion) for the April-June quarter, largely because of problems tied to “increased product costs and ramp-up challenges” in its offshore energy business.
“There’s very few projects that are immune to the inflationary impact,” said Finlay Clark, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a consulting firm.
Europe’s Shift Away From Fossil Fuels
The European Union has begun a transition to greener forms of energy. But financial and geopolitical considerations could complicate the efforts.
A Competitive Field: The E.U. is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but incentives offered by the Biden administration are luring companies to the United States.
A Wind Pioneer: Henrik Stiesdal helped design the first modern wind turbines. A thousand patents later, he’s a green tech entrepreneur rolling out new innovations.
Nuclear Power: Germany shut down its three remaining reactors, just as other European countries look to expand their reliance on nuclear energy.
Ban on Gas-Powered Cars: Germany has reached an agreement with the E.U. to allow the sale of vehicles that burn fuels made from renewable energy past 2035, resolving a dispute over a proposed ban on internal combustion engines.
Rising costs for wind developers are a problem for governments in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. Many countries are counting on an enormous and rapid expansion of offshore wind to achieve a significant portion of their renewable energy goals.
“We are wasting time here,” Morten Dyrholm, group senior vice president for corporate affairs at Vestas Wind Systems, the Danish turbine maker, said of the industry’s problems. “We need to grow the sector quite dramatically.”
Mr. Dyrholm and others in the industry say the inflation problems are a warning sign that governments need to change their system of awarding offshore wind licenses.
The procedures for obtaining the rights to build wind farms vary in different countries but often involve an auction of seabed leases followed, sometimes years later, by agreements that set the price paid by power companies for the electricity generated.
These arrangements, designed to drive down power prices for consumers and, often, to maximize revenues from lease sales, should be broadened to take into account other factors, some industry leaders say. An auction for seabed rights awarded by Scotland in 2022 is cited as a model because it put greater emphasis on factors like the ability of wind companies to develop suppliers, and the experience of the companies.
The debate could open the way for more power deals with corporations like Amazon and Microsoft, whose data centers are hungry consumers of electricity. Large businesses might be more flexible partners for wind developers than government officials who tend to say “this is the rule,” said Deepa Venkateswaran, a utilities analyst at Bernstein, a research firm.
Renewable energy programs like Britain’s — which is designed to encourage financial backing by providing a guaranteed price to wind developers, and also to gradually drive down charges paid by consumers — attracted billions in investment when inflation was low. Now, in a very different world, after the disruptions of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Britain is taking fire for policies that could make wind projects uneconomical.
“I am afraid the U.K. has gone from being one of the best governments in Europe on offshore wind to one of the worst,” said Giles Dickson, chief executive of WindEurope, a trade body.
Turbine parts at Orsted’s pre-assembly site in Taichung Port in Taiwan, in March.Credit...Ann Wang/Reuters
A British government spokesman responded: “We understand there are supply chain pressures for the sector globally, not just in the U.K., and we are listening to companies’ concerns.”
The inflation problems are mainly hitting offshore wind farms in late stages of development rather than those already generating power.
Offshore projects can require a decade to progress from planning stages to generating power. That means agreements on issues like the power price may be years old before the turbines are in place and generating electricity.
That system worked when inflation was negligible and demand for turbines and other equipment was relatively subdued. Now, as a growing number of developers look to secure everything necessary to undertake the projects — from wind turbines, which cost millions of dollars, to the services of specialized construction ships, to bank financing — they discover that the price tags have suddenly soared. Mr. Dyrholm estimates that prices of wind turbines alone have increased 30 percent in the past year.
“The costs have risen, and you have a mismatch,” said Bernard Looney, chief executive of BP, which is an investor, with Equinor, a Norwegian company, in three offshore wind projects in the Atlantic that would supply power to around two million households in New York State. Equinor and BP have petitioned state authorities to renegotiate their power contracts.
Similarly, developers in Britain and elsewhere don’t seem to want to completely jettison projects. Many are trying to renegotiate the deals or push governments to alter the formats of future auctions. Some are terminating existing contracts to supply power to utilities and seeking new ones — or threatening such moves, figuring there will be plenty of demand for clean power in the future.
Walking away from contracts signed years ago has become “the prudent commercial course” even with the risk of financial penalties, SouthCoast Wind, a project part-owned by Shell that would be located in the Atlantic near Martha’s Vineyard, in Massachusetts, said in a statement in June.
Another Massachusetts proposal, Commonwealth Wind, which is owned by Avangrid, a U.S. subsidiary of the Spanish energy giant Iberdrola, has terminated its power supply contract and plans to seek a new deal in a future auction, the company said.
“The economics are challenging,” said Stephanie McClellan, executive director of Turn Forward, an offshore wind advocacy organization in the United States.
Equinor’s floating wind turbines about 25 miles off the Scottish coast, in 2021.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
Despite the soured deals, interest in offshore wind remains strong. In a recent auction in Germany, BP and TotalEnergies in France agreed to pay around $14 billion over three decades for offshore tracts.
The German deals differ from others because the companies are simply paying for the rights to develop sea bottom, and they will negotiate what they get paid for the electricity at a later day.
Such deals are attractive to a corporate giant like BP, which has the financial firepower to make them happen and would be freer to do what it wants with the power. Mr. Looney said he hoped to steer away from the long-term power contracts, preferring instead to try to squeeze more value from wind-generated electricity by using it to make green hydrogen, a still scarce clean fuel, or charge electric vehicles.
“We’d like to do something with those electrons; take them and put them to use,” he said.
But there are only a handful of companies with the heft of BP and TotalEnergies. Whether nations can achieve their offshore ambitions through such commercial deals remains to be seen. Critics say that charging high prices for leases will lead to higher power prices for consumers.
Source: NYT/Editions by Germán & Co Climate Is Now a Culture War Issue
The issue of anti-environmentalism is undeniably influenced by true greed. However, climate denial has morphed into something more than just a battle against acknowledging the science of climate change. It has become a front in the culture wars, with right-wing individuals rejecting scientific consensus not only due to their general aversion to science but also out of a visceral opposition to anything that liberals support.
NYT By Paul Krugman, Opinion Columnist, Aug. 7, 2023Understanding climate denial used to seem easy: It was all about greed. Delve into the background of a researcher challenging the scientific consensus, a think tank trying to block climate action or a politician pronouncing climate change a hoax and you would almost always find major financial backing from the fossil fuel industry.
“Those were simpler, more innocent times, and I miss them.
True, greed is still a major factor in anti-environmentalism. But climate denial has also become a front in the culture wars, with right-wingers rejecting the science in part because they dislike science in general and opposing action against emissions out of visceral opposition to anything liberals support.
And this cultural dimension of climate arguments has emerged at the worst possible moment — a moment when both the extreme danger from unchecked emissions and the path toward slashing those emissions are clearer than ever.
Some background: Scientists who began warning decades ago that the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere would have dangerous effects on the climate have been overwhelmingly vindicated.
Worldwide, July was the hottest month on record, with devastating heat waves in many parts of the globe. Extreme weather events are proliferating. Florida is essentially sitting in a hot bath, with ocean temperatures off some of its coast higher than body temperature.
A changing climate, a changing world
At the same time, technological progress in renewable energy has made it possible to envisage major reductions in emissions at little or no cost in terms of economic growth and living standards.
Back in 2009, when Democrats tried but failed to take significant climate action, their policy proposals consisted mainly of sticks — limits on emissions in the form of permits that businesses could buy and sell. In 2022, when the Biden administration finally succeeded in passing a major climate bill, it consisted almost entirely of carrots — tax credits and subsidies for green energy. Yet thanks to the revolution in renewable technology, energy experts believe that this all-gain-no-pain approach will have major effects in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
But not if Republicans can help it. The Heritage Foundation is spearheading an effort called Project 2025 that will probably define the agenda if a Republican wins the White House next year. As The Times reports, it calls for “dismantling almost every clean energy program in the federal government and boosting the production of fossil fuels.”
What’s behind this destructive effort? Well, Project 2025 appears to have been largely devised by the usual suspects — fossil-fueled think tanks like the Heartland Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute that have been crusading against climate science and climate action for many years.
But the political force of this drive, and the likelihood that there will be no significant dissent from within the G.O.P. if Republicans do take the White House, has a lot to do with the way science in general and climate science in particular have become a front in the culture war.
About attitudes toward science: As recently as the mid-2000s, Republicans and Democrats had similar levels of trust in the scientific community. Since then, however, Republican trust has plunged as Democratic trust has risen; there’s now a 30-point gap between the parties.
We saw the effect of this anti-science trend when Covid vaccines became available: Vaccination was free to the public, so there was no economic cost to individuals, yet getting vaccinated was widely perceived as something “experts” and liberal elites wanted you to do. As a result, Republicans disproportionately refused to get their shots and suffered substantially higher rates of excess deaths — deaths over and above those you would normally have expected — than Democrats.
Does anyone seriously doubt that similar attitudes are driving rank-and-file Republicans to oppose action on climate change? The other day my colleague David Brooks argued that many Republicans dispute the reality of climate change and push for fossil fuels as a way to “offend the elites.” He’s right. Look at the hysterical reaction to potential regulations on gas stoves, and while it’s clear that special interests were, um, fueling the fire, there was also a strong culture-war element: The elites want you to get an induction cooktop, but real men cook with gas.
The fact that the climate war is now part of the culture war worries me, a lot. Special interests can do a great deal of damage, but they can be bought off or counterbalanced with other special interests. Indeed, an important part of President Biden’s climate strategy is the idea that renewable energy investments, which have been soaring since his legislation passed, will give many businesses and communities a stake in continuing the green transition.
But such rational if self-interested considerations won’t do much to persuade people who believe that green energy is a conspiracy against the American way of life. So the culture war has become a major problem for climate action — a problem we really, really don’t need right now.
“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.
Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.
Image by Germán & CoBiden Plans to Run on Protecting Democracy, as Trump Faces Charges of Subverting It
President Joe Biden speaks about his economic plan "Bidenomics" at Auburn Manufacturing Inc. in Auburn, Maine, on July 28, 2023.
TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT, AUGUST 7, 2023 President Joe Biden was on vacation in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware when Donald Trump was indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election. As TV news anchors chewed over the meaning of the four felony charges, bringing the total number of criminal charges Trump’s facing across multiple investigations to 78, Biden went on bike rides along a scenic salt marsh, ate out at a seafood restaurant and saw the film Oppenheimer in a movie theater.
The next day, as Biden rode his bike past a scrum of reporters, one from the Associated Press shouted out, “Indictments?” The President kept riding.
Biden was adopting the same strategy for Trump’s third indictment as he had for the previous two: staying out of the way. White House officials say that Biden wants to avoid weighing in on Trump’s charges because he doesn’t want to influence the judicial process.
Yet those two earlier indictments were about Trump’s use of hush-money payments to cover up an affair and his handling of classified documents. The latest charges speak to the heart of Biden’s political message to voters in 2024: that the extreme ideas embodied by Trump and championed by much of the Republican Party pose a threat to American democracy.
Biden “will be measured in how he approaches all this given there are many ongoing court cases,” says Simon Rosenberg, a long-time Democratic strategist.
In his first successful bid for President in 2020, Biden traveled to events with the slogan, “Battle for the Soul of the Nation” painted on the side of his campaign bus. Two years later, made the idea that America’s democracy was at stake a major part of his pitch to midterm voters, when control of both the Senate and the House were up for grabs.
He is preparing to employ a similar strategy for his 2024 campaign, while also emphasizing what he’s done to create manufacturing jobs and raise wages.
It’s likely to be a tight race. A recent New York Times/Siena poll showed Biden and Trump neck and neck in a possible head to head general election.
Last November, Attorney General Merrick Garland named special counsel Jack Smith to lead the federal investigations into Trump in order to keep the prosecution of Biden’s chief political rival at arm’s length.
Pushing back on autocratic ideas that undermine legitimate voting results will be a key part of Biden’s pitch to voters in 2024. But Biden may be hemmed in on how far he can go in pressing that point. Not only is he reluctant to seem like he’s cheering on the prosecutors, Trump and his allies have framed all of Trump’s legal problems as being orchestrated by Biden as a campaign strategy.
“The entire Biden Administration knows that I’m the ONLY candidate who would defeat Crooked Joe in a free and fair election,” Trump wrote in a fundraising email to supporters last week. “So, their only hope is to try and send me to JAIL for the rest of my life.”
Rosenberg notes that Republicans have already gone to the polls defending Donald Trump’s election lies and performed poorly. Every Republican candidate for secretary of state who denied the legitimate 2020 election results lost their races, he says.
“These issues were heavily litigated in the battleground in 2022 and it didn’t go well for Republicans and it’s not going to go well for them again in 2024 because Trump represents a far more clear and present danger to our democracy than he did even in the last election,” says Rosenberg.
This time around, Trump is running as a former President who is defending himself against charges related to his efforts to cling to power, including conspiracy to defraud the United States. While the prosecution will be an unavoidable issue in next year’s presidential race, it will be up to Biden to decide how much his campaign intends to talk about it.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Project Red, Fervo Energy’s full-scale commercial pilot project in northern Nevada, Fervo EnergyHow a Former Oil Guy Is Using Fracking Tech to Boost Geothermal Energy
TIME BY ALEJANDRO DE LA GARZA, AUGUST 7, 2023Of all the technological progress of the past few decades, there is a good argument to be made that a series of fossil fuel industry innovations that helped spark the U.S. shale oil boom have had the single largest effect on the course of global geopolitics, and the world’s biosphere. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking shifted the U.S. from being a net fuel importer to exporter—a realignment of the world’s strategic chessboard currently being demonstrated in the fleets of American oil and natural gas tankers helping circumvent Russia’s energy blockade of Europe. At the same time, all that new, cheap fuel helped prolong the U.S.’s carbon addiction for years, with incipient renewables unable to compete against natural gas.
But that drilling technology may yet have a climate upside. Last month, Houston-based startup Fervo announced the successful test of a first-of-its kind commercial-scale power plant, which uses the shale oil drilling innovations to produce zero-emission geothermal energy. While horizontal drilling allows oil producers to access new seams of fossil fuels, in Fervo’s case, the company is drilling sideways into hot, porous rocks heated by tectonic activity. The company then pumps water through those rocks in order to generate steam and produce electricity. Right now, its project in northern Nevada is capable of producing about 3.5 megawatts of energy, or enough electricity to power about 2,600 homes. Once the plant gets hooked up to the grid later this year, that electricity will be used to power Google data centers and other Alphabet operations.
Unlike solar and wind energy, which only generate energy when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, geothermal plants can provide a constant stream of power, which is crucial to balancing the grid. Currently, geothermal energy accounts for about 0.4% of U.S. electricity. But, like in the U.S. fracking boom, Fervo’s technology could make it feasible to develop geothermal power plants in many more areas where it wouldn’t have made financial sense before, a change that could help raise geothermal energy as a serious player in decarbonizing the U.S. grid.
Tim Latimer started his career in the oil and gas industry, before co-founding Fervo in 2017. He spoke with TIME about finding a way to use oil industry technology for the planet, and his vision for the future of geothermal energy.
TIME: Can you tell us about how Fervo’s technology works? Why is it important?
Tim Latimer: Geothermal power generation has been around for over 100 years. The first geothermal power plant was built in Italy around the turn of the last century. All geothermal [power] kind of works the same way: you drill to high temperature geology, and then you produce hot water or steam out of wells that you drill into, and then capture that at the surface to create electricity. There's been plants built all over the world. It's a huge part of the electricity mix in places like Iceland, New Zealand, and Kenya. But traditionally, the struggle has been that you [have to] tap really hot, shallow, productive, natural basins to be cost-effective. But those sites got tapped [decades] ago, and we had to drill deeper to less hot places and less productive wells, and technology really didn't keep up. So the reason geothermal hadn't expanded was that once you cherry pick these geologic hotspots and try to move on to other places, the tech didn't exist to make it cost effective.
Traditionally, you would drill simple vertical wells, and you would flow [water] between injection wells and production wells. What's novel about our site is we drilled down about 8,000 ft., and then we turned and drilled horizontally for 4,000 ft. And then we flowed [water] from one horizontal well to the other across several hundred feet in that high temperature rock 8,000 ft. beneath our feet. That solves some of these economic challenges and allows us to go to deeper places and still make the economics work.
What was the biggest challenge of making that oil and gas technology work for geothermal power?
Our geology requirements are quite a bit different. In the U.S., there's been well over 100,000 horizontal oil and gas wells drilled, but generally, those are in shallower places where the rock is softer, and it's not as hot. So it has taken a lot of work to be able to adapt the equipment. Our wells are much higher temperature—the project that we did here was nearly 400℉. We're also drilling through granite, and so that's much harder rock.
What sort of new technology did you need to drill through harder rock and higher heat?
Some of it is better tools, like drill bits with harder surfaces, and motors and electronics that are built to deal with higher temperatures. And some of it is just better techniques. One of the things that we drove forward was a way of pumping fluid down while we're drilling that cools your drilling system more efficiently than in an oil and gas operation.
Where are these hot rocks that you need? How much more geothermal energy could your technology open up?
Our current projects are in states like Utah and Nevada that have good natural geology for geothermal, where we can still drill relatively shallow wells and get to high temperature [rock]. But we're not limited to those geologies. We're just starting there first because it's the low-hanging fruit. Principally, there's virtually an unlimited amount of geothermal energy. The world is really big, and the world is really hot. We've got billions of years of energy under our feet. It's all a question about how much you can access economically. We think with existing technology, drilling down to about 4,000 meters [over 13,100 ft.] is probably cost effective.
As part of the [U.S.] Energy Secretary's enhanced geothermal Earthshot that she announced last year, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory did a study looking in detail at the Western United States, and determining how much high temperature rock can you find at 4,000 meters [over 13,100 ft.] or shallower, and found over 200 gigawatts of [potential power] that was just in that shallow depth. That would represent as much as 20% of U.S. electricity supply, if we can develop that amount. But what we think is, as we expand this technology, we won't have to be just limited to the western United States. We can get so cost effective that we can come to the Eastern United States where we would have to drill deeper, but still make it cost effective. And so there's really no practical limit to how much geothermal [energy] there can be. It's just a question of how quickly we can get more efficient at drilling and repeat the results that we did in our pilot, and just continue to bring costs down every time we build a new power plant.
Was there a particular day where you got out of bed, and said, “I'm done with oil and gas, and I’m going to use this drilling technology for renewables instead?”
I've always been really passionate about the environment. I love the outdoors. And so even when I started my career in oil and gas, it was something I was thinking about a lot. I'm from Houston. The oil and gas industry has been a big part of my life and my community. But the more I got passionate about climate change, the more I really wanted to start looking at new solutions.
There's two things that happened for me that were important. I realized that a lot of my friends, a lot of my family, and a huge part of our city all had our employment prospects tied up in the oil and gas industry. And I started realizing this energy transition is real, and if we're going to take serious action on climate, we need to make sure that there's something that Houston is doing. And not just Houston, but other major oil and gas places around the world. People in places where oil and gas is the primary economic driver need to find a way to transition. And so I wanted to figure out how somebody from the oil and gas industry could apply their skills to climate change. When I discovered geothermal, I felt really excited. This is a field that needs drilling engineers, but to produce a carbon-free energy source.
And then another thing for me was I lived in Houston during this series of floods we got in the 2010s. Year after year, we got these one-in-1,000 year events. Everybody knows about Hurricane Harvey in 2017. But for me, in 2015, there was a flood and they canceled my work. And I walked outside my apartment, and the road outside had 20 ft. of water on it. Everything was underwater. It was this moment where [climate change] went from being this thing that I was intellectually curious and about to being like, “This is not normal. This is a pretty urgent crisis.”
I ended up quitting my job just a couple of months after that to go to graduate school, and ended up pursuing this new geothermal path. I wrote in my application essay to Stanford Business School that my goal was to learn the entrepreneurial skills to launch a geothermal company that can take technology from the oil and gas industry to disrupt the geothermal sector. So it was a pretty calculated move.
I imagine that a lot of people you're working with also come from an oil and gas background, and maybe decided to leave because that industry is not really going to be viable anymore for us as a species. Does that play into recruiting folks?
Totally. 60% of the employees at Fervo come from a background in the oil and gas industry. Growing up here [in Houston], oil and gas is just a massive employer. I really get frustrated when people demonize the people that work in oil and gas. They are some of the best people. It's an incredibly diverse group with people from all over, and a lot of them are also passionate about climate change. We’re able to tap into that growing part of that workforce that is thinking deeply about climate change. If we want to deploy geothermal energy as quickly as we need to to actually have an impact on global carbon emissions, we need to recruit tens of thousands of people to come work with us. And so recruiting from the oil and gas industry is a major part of our strategy.
What does the future look like for Fervo?
We're going into full deployment mode. Technologies like this only make a difference if we deploy them at large-scale in a way that can reduce carbon emissions and increase the reliability of the grid. Our next project that we're breaking ground on is going to be nearly 100 times bigger than our pilot. We're targeting a 400 megawatt project [in Utah] that we're going to be constructing over the next four years. And then beyond that, it's our ambition to unlock that full multi-hundred gigawatt resource that the National Renewable Energy Lab has identified. The goal here is to be 20% of U.S. electricity supply by 2050, and then to repeat that around the world.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoBrazil’s Lula pushes end to deforestation, stumbles on fossil fuels
Summit will be a major political and diplomatic test for the Brazilian leader.
POLITICO EU BY LOUISE GUILLOT, AUGUST 7, 2023 Under pressure from the EU to rein in deforestation or face trade restrictions, Amazon countries must figure out how to bring prosperity to the region without destroying the forest. And that’s proving difficult.
At a two-day summit starting Tuesday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is looking to corral countries to speed up efforts to stop deforestation and decide on a common strategy to save the rainforest.
But it's likely to be an uphill climb, with countries disagreeing on whether they should commit to a zero deforestation goal and on whether oil and gas drilling should be banned in the region.
The summit comes as the EU is rolling out new rules to ban commodities’ imports driving deforestation abroad and is asking countries to police their supply chains against environmental and human rights violations.
That's increasing pressure on the Amazon region — and particularly on Brazil, one of the largest exporters of agri-food products to the EU and home to 60 percent of the rainforest — to commit to ambitious action at this week's meet-up.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has argued that phasing out fossil fuels is essential for the forest's protection. “Even if we get deforestation under control, the Amazon faces dire threats if global heating continues to climb,” he wrote in an op-ed last month, adding that “to avoid the point of no return, we need an ambitious transnational policy to phase out fossil fuels.”
But Lula isn’t pushing to phase out fossil fuels domestically, highlighting a tension between conservation efforts and ensuring economies stay on track.
The Brazilian leader told local media ahead of the summit he wants to “keep dreaming” about drilling in the region. His comments come as Brazilian oil major Petrobras is looking to open new fields near the mouth of the Amazon River despite receiving a negative opinion from the national institute for the environment.
If fossil fuels are kept underground, Amazon countries will need alternative activities to keep their economies afloat. Observers have suggested using this week's summit as a way to promote greener farming and sustainable forest management, as well as discuss potential schemes to pay farmers and indigenous people to help protect the forest.
“The bioeconomy is the key to unlocking the region's economic potential while preserving its ecological heritage and, as such, needs to be at the center of any sustainable and inclusive development plan for the Amazon,” said Vanessa Pérez, global economics director at the World Resources Institute.
Indigenous groups are also watching the summit closely, and want their contribution to climate protection, as well as their rights and territorial claims recognized by country leaders.
“It is not possible to plan the future of the Amazon without indigenous peoples, without guaranteeing our territorial rights,” said Ângela Kaxuyana, political adviser at the Coordination of Indigenous Organizations of the Brazilian Amazon.
High stakes
The outcome of the summit is a major political and diplomatic test for Lula, who has pledged to achieve zero deforestation in the Amazon.
Since taking office last year, Lula has stepped up efforts to crack down on illegal miners, protect indigenous groups and boost conservation efforts in the Amazon, with the government reporting a 66 percent drop in the rate of deforestation in July compared to the same month last year.
But not all Amazon countries are ready to commit to a similarly ambitious goal; Bolivia and Venezuela failed to sign a pledge made at the COP26 climate talks to end global deforestation by 2030.
Scientists have warned that the continued deterioration of the Amazon, a major carbon sink, is likely to have a profound impact on global climate efforts.
“If [Lula] doesn't come out of this summit with agreement from other countries that they also see this goal as important, it really undermines Brazil's efforts to reach this [zero deforestation] goal,” said Diego Casaes, campaign director at the NGO Avaaz.
The regional meet-up is also a key opportunity for Lula to assert his credibility as a climate leader both domestically and internationally as Brazil prepares to host the COP30 summit in 2025, Casaes added.
The outcome is "a test of how far Lula can go given the constraint that he has from the congress,” he said, given the Brazilian legislative body has pushed back against measures to boost policing and protection of the rainforest.
Scientists have warned that the continued deterioration of the Amazon, a major carbon sink, is likely to have a profound impact on global climate efforts | Victor Moriyama/Getty Images
European lawmakers will be looking for signals for how the region is preparing to adapt to new rules to police imports driving deforestation, tackle human rights abuses and green trade.
Under the EU Deforestation Regulation, imports of commodities like soy and beef produced on deforested land will be forbidden from 2024, while under the new corporate sustainability due diligence rules companies will be forced to scrutinize their supply chains for environmental damage and human rights abuses.
And although the trade deal between the EU and the Mercosur countries isn’t officially on the agenda, it will certainly come up.
That’s because the EU is currently negotiating a sustainability addendum to the trade deal with his Latin American counterparts, which should give reassurances — notably to France — the agreement will not have negative consequences on the environment and worsen deforestation.
The summit is an opportunity to see whether Amazon countries "are able to coordinate efforts" and to ensure policies related to the forest "are aligned with [global] climate goals," said Caseas.
Pressure gauges, pipes and valves are pictured at an "Dashava" underground gas storage facility near Striy, Ukraine May 28, 2015. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich//File PhotoExclusive: Defying war risk, European traders store gas in Ukraine
REUTERS By Jan Lopatka and Marek Strzelecki, August 8, 2023PRAGUE/WARSAW, Aug 8 (Reuters) - European gas traders have begun storing natural gas in Ukraine to take advantage of lower prices and available capacity there, regardless of the risks from the ongoing war, three traders and company officials said.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, begun in February last year, the European Union (EU) has sought high levels of gas storage to compensate for reduced Russian supply, especially during the peak demand winter months.
The bloc is expected to reach a target of filling its storage facilities to 90% full by Nov. 1.
Traders said there was commercial logic in storage in Ukraine, in addition to on EU soil, to take advantage of cheaper prices now versus for future delivery.
Gas for September delivery is priced at 30 euros ($32.96) per MWh compared with forward prices for first quarter of 2024 at 49 euros, according to prices from the TTF Dutch gas futures market.
Czech EPH group told Reuters its decision to use Ukrainian storage was also a sign of confidence in the country.
"EP Commodities transports natural gas to Ukraine and uses Ukrainian gas storage facilities," Miroslav Hasko, chairman at EPH's EP Commodities, said.
"We believe in the reliability of the Ukraine’s gas transport and storage systems, which proved themselves even in such an immensely difficult wartime situation."
He did not disclose volumes.
EU countries' gas storage facilities were 87% full on Aug. 7, according to transparency platform GIE.
"We see a positive trend in gas injection by foreign traders into our (storage) facilities," said Ukriane's state-owned Ukrtransgas, part of Naftogaz Group.
Naftotgaz said foreign customers could use more than 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of storage of the country's around 30 bcm capacity, mostly in the country's west, which is far from the front lines.
Slovakia state-owned SPP, which supplies most of the Slovak market, in part with Russian gas, said it was looking at the possibility of using Ukrainian storage given Slovak storage was already 90% full.
"We consider gas storage in Ukraine as one of the interesting business opportunities that we are currently considering," SPP told Reuters.
Other European traders said there are risks due to possible military strikes or questions over what happens to the network if Russia stops pumping the gas it still sends westward via Ukraine.
"Imagine a well-targeted missile hits a compressor station or some other infrastructure. You have to take that risk," said Martin Pich, head of trading at Czech firm MND.
He said volumes at current spreads may not be large but could pick up if spot prices drop. He did not comment on MND's trading.
The Bruegel think tank said last month Ukraine could increase Europe's storage capacity by about 10%.
"Utilising the extra 100 TWh capacity available in Ukraine will provide a nice boost to Europe’s winter outlook, and a welcome boost to Ukraine’s income," Bruegel said.
Gas for storage in Ukraine can be purchased anywhere and pumped using real or virtual flows in pipelines from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.
Nominations have risen for the pipeline that transports Russian gas from Ukraine to Slovakia at the Velke Kapusany border for flows into Ukraine - virtual reverse flows. They have been up to 10 mcm per day since July.
Physical flows from Slovakia into Ukraine also started in August through the Budince point with daily volumes of around 17 mcm.
News Round-up, August 7, 2023
Latest news:
“China shows it is 'not backing Russian aggression'; Peskov denies comment about Putin re-election. China's attendance at peace talks in Saudi Arabia show it is not backing Vladimir Putin's aggression, an analyst has told Sky News - but the talks conclude without concrete plan to end the war.
Sky News NowMost read…
U.S. lab says it repeated fusion energy feat — with higher yield
Scientists are striving to harness the potential of fusion energy, yet they still face significant challenges.
TWP BY BEN BRASCH, KYLE REMPFER AND SHANNON OSAKA, AUGUST 6, 2023 Big Oil’s Talent Crisis: High Salaries Are No Longer Enough
Energy companies scramble to attract engineers as young workers fret over climate and job security
WSJ BY MARI NOVIK, AND COLLIN EATON, AUG. 6, 2023 Rising Money Flows, Fueled by Record Migration, Prop Up Autocrats
Remittances to the developing world hit record $647 billion, aiding the poor but helping keep strongmen from Nicaragua to Tajikistan in power African migrants recently sailed in a wooden boat in the Mediterranean Sea toward Europe.
WSJ BY RYAN DUBÉ, AUG. 6, 2023 “Pope” calls for action on migrant deaths calling the Mediterranean 'a cemetery'
EURONEWS DIGITAL WITH AP, AFP, EVN, AUGUST 7, 2023 Colombia in —Petrified State—
The initial year of Gustavo Petro's administration has been full of ups and downs, with the government demonstrating both boldness in breaking paradigms and disappointing periods, creating a sense of freefall.
"EL PAIS", WRITTEN BY MARIA JIMENA DUZAN ON AUGUST 7, 2023/ TRANSLATIONS AND ENGLISH EDITIONS PROVIDED BY GERMÁN & CO.Siemens Energy books $2.4 billion in charges on wind turbines
A significant increase in its net loss for 2023, projecting a more than six-fold jump to 4.5 billion euros.
Reuters By Christoph Steitz and Alexander Hübner, August 7, 2023Image by Germán & CoLatest news:
“China shows it is 'not backing Russian aggression'; Peskov denies comment about Putin re-election. China's attendance at peace talks in Saudi Arabia show it is not backing Vladimir Putin's aggression, an analyst has told Sky News - but the talks conclude without concrete plan to end the war.
Sky News NowMost read…
U.S. lab says it repeated fusion energy feat — with higher yield
Scientists are striving to harness the potential of fusion energy, yet they still face significant challenges.
TWP By Ben Brasch, Kyle Rempfer and Shannon Osaka, August 6, 2023 Big Oil’s Talent Crisis: High Salaries Are No Longer Enough
Energy companies scramble to attract engineers as young workers fret over climate and job security
WSJ By Mari Novik, and Collin Eaton, Aug. 6, 2023Rising Money Flows, Fueled by Record Migration, Prop Up Autocrats
Remittances to the developing world hit record $647 billion, aiding the poor but helping keep strongmen from Nicaragua to Tajikistan in power African migrants recently sailed in a wooden boat in the Mediterranean Sea toward Europe.
WSJ by Ryan Dubé, Aug. 6, 2023“Pope” calls for action on migrant deaths calling the Mediterranean 'a cemetery'
Euronews Digital with AP, AFP, EVN, August 7, 2023Colombia in —Petrified State—
The initial year of Gustavo Petro's administration has been full of ups and downs, with the government demonstrating both boldness in breaking paradigms and disappointing periods, creating a sense of freefall.
"El Pais", written by Maria Jimena Duzan on August 7, 2023/ Translations and English editions provided by Germán & Co.Siemens Energy books $2.4 billion in charges on wind turbines
A significant increase in its net loss for 2023, projecting a more than six-fold jump to 4.5 billion euros.
Reuters By Christoph Steitz and Alexander Hübner, August 7, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
An illustration provided by the National Ignition Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory depicts a target pellet inside a hohlraum capsule with laser beams entering through openings on either end. The beams compress and heat the target to the necessary conditions for nuclear fusion to occur. (AP)U.S. lab says it repeated fusion energy feat — with higher yield
Scientists are striving to harness the potential of fusion energy, yet they still face significant challenges.
TWP By Ben Brasch, Kyle Rempfer and Shannon Osaka, August 6, 2023 A group of U.S. scientists say they have repeated their landmark energy feat — a nuclear fusion reaction that produces more energy than is put into it. But this time, they say the experiment produced an even higher energy yield than one in December that got international attention for making a major step forward toward the long elusive goal of producing energy through fusion.
This second achievement by researchers at the federal Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California is another crucial step — albeit in a journey that may still take decades to complete — in the quest for an unlimited source of cheap and clean power. The successful effort was initially reported by the Financial Times on Sunday.
“We have continued to perform experiments to study this exciting new scientific regime. In an experiment conducted on July 30, we repeated ignition at (the National Ignition Facility),” Paul Rhien, a spokesman for the federal laboratory, said in a emailed statement. “Analysis of those results is underway, but we can confirm the experiment produced a higher yield than the December test.”
Rhien said the lab “won’t be discussing further details” of the July experiment until after more analysis. But the team plans to “share the results at scientific conferences and peer-reviewed publications as part of our normal process for communicating scientific results.”
What you need to know about the U.S. fusion energy breakthrough
Right now, nuclear power plants use fission, which creates energy by splitting atoms — the science at the center of the current blockbuster “Oppenheimer.” While nuclear power produces bountiful clean energy, it has long drawn concerns over safety, though it is getting renewed attention amid an international push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow global warming.
Fusion, on the other hand, creates energy by merging atoms together. It’s long been a dream because it could create limitless clean energy without the radioactive byproducts of nuclear power or the risk of meltdown. Plus, the fuel to make fusion happen is simply heavy hydrogen atoms, which can be found in something that Earth has in abundance: seawater. No mining of uranium is required.
Researchers have produced fusion reactions before, but it has taken more energy to cause the reaction than they could get back. The key thing about these last two experiments is that they get more energy back than they put in to create the reaction. That efficiency has been the elusive holy grail of fusion research.
(Still, it is limited in the sense that they are considering the amount of energy required to power lasers that were used to smush the hydrogen atoms together — not the power that’s necessary to make the whole project work.)
The White House praised the work at the time of the first breakthrough in December.
“This is such a wonderful example of a possibility realized, a scientific milestone achieved, and a road ahead to the possibilities for clean energy,” Arati Prabhakar, the White House science adviser, said during a news conference.
U.S. announces milestone on fusion energy, sparking hopes for clean power
Still, scientists are far away from using the energy produced by fusion.
Researchers can only create a fusion reaction about once a day because they have to let the lasers cool and replace the fuel target. But a commercially viable fusion plant would need to be able to do it several times per second, Dennis Whyte, director of the Plasma Science and Fusion Center at MIT, previously told The Washington Post.
“Once you’ve got scientific viability,” he said, “you’ve got to figure out engineering viability.”
Source: www.energyportal.eu Big Oil’s Talent Crisis: High Salaries Are No Longer Enough
Energy companies scramble to attract engineers as young workers fret over climate and job security
WSJ By Mari Novik, and Collin Eaton, Aug. 6, 2023“The Shrinking Pool of Petroleum Engineers
energyportal.eu By Howard Rhodes, AUG 6, 2023…European universities, which have traditionally provided engineers for companies operating in the Middle East and Asia, are also witnessing a decline in interest.
The decrease in interest from students and high-skilled workers is primarily driven by concerns about the industry’s impact on climate change and the long-term job security. As global economies transition away from fossil fuels, many individuals are wary of choosing a career path that may become obsolete. This shift in perspective marks a departure from previous cycles, where the industry’s workforce fluctuated with oil prices.
Good news from the oil patch: Jobs are plentiful and salaries are soaring.
The bad news is that young people still aren’t interested.
Even as oil-and-gas companies post record profits, the industry is facing a worsening talent drought.
At U.S. colleges, the pool of new entrants for petroleum-engineering programs has shrunk to its smallest size since before the fracking boom began more than a decade ago. European universities, which have historically provided many of the engineers for companies with operations across the Middle East and Asia, are seeing similar trends.
Diverging Paths
Numbers of U.S. undergraduate students studying petroleum engineering have traditionally fluctuated with the price of oil, but that hasn't been the case recently.
Change since 1990
Source: Lloyd Heinze/ *Brent crude spot price a barrel, annual average.Students and high-skilled young workers are concerned about the industry’s role in climate change, as well as long-term job security given that global economies are transitioning away from fossil fuels to other energy sources, according to executives, analysts and professors.
The trend is a stark departure from previous cycles, when the industry’s workforce ebbed and flowed with the rise and fall of oil prices.
Between 2016 and 2021—a period when the Brent crude price nearly doubled—the number of petroleum-engineering graduates more than halved, according to the U.S. Department of Education.
The number of undergraduates pursuing petroleum engineering has dropped 75% since 2014, according to Lloyd Heinze, a Texas Tech University professor.
It is a trend that has continued even as other recent studies have shown that the average graduate earns 40% more than a peer with a computer science degree.
That puts students, including Hayden Gregg, in high demand.
The 21-year-old Kansas City, Mo., native is studying petroleum engineering at Colorado School of Mines. His graduating class of 36 students is down from around 200 in the years before oil prices collapsed in the mid-2010s, according to a college official.
Encouraged by his roommates and a visit to the oil-and-gas heartland of Texas, he became convinced that the industry offers a range of engineering possibilities as it transitions to a broader mix of energy sources.
“Even if oil and gas is going away, I can deploy my skills in other engineering fields,” he said.
Jennifer Miskimins, head of the petroleum engineering department at Colorado School of Mines, said Gregg’s graduating class is benefiting from a pickup in oil-industry hiring and many have gotten good internships. “They’re a hot commodity,” she said. “I think this class is going to be sitting pretty.”
Oil-and-gas companies are pouring money into fellowships and other programs designed to cultivate a new generation of talent. Much of the focus is on white-collar careers that tend to attract college graduates, but the trend is broadly true among the industry’s blue-collar workers as well.
A big part of the pitch is that the industry is increasingly dynamic and creative, requiring employees who can run carbon capture, hydrogen and geothermal projects, said Barbara Burger, who served in several leadership roles at Chevron and is now a senior adviser at investment bank Lazard.
Part of the challenge, she said, is that there are more startups and fast-growing companies in those fields that don’t carry the same baggage as the giants that earn most of their profits from fossil fuels.
“There’s competition in a way that probably wasn’t there 15 years ago,” she said.
Burger recently attended an event hosted by Fervo Energy, a startup that uses the shale boom’s horizontal drilling and fracking techniques to develop geothermal wells for electricity generation. Around 60% of Fervo’s employees previously worked at oil-and-gas outfits, the company said.
To attract workers, she said, oil-and-gas companies need to better articulate their energy transition strategies, including efforts to carve out new businesses or curb emissions.
“That’s a hook for employees—current and future,” Burger said. “They want to know there’s a future in the actual companies, the industries and the skill sets they have.”
The talent shortage represents a long-term problem at a moment when energy security—largely dependent on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future—is increasingly a global priority. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, Europe has become desperate for new supplies of oil and gas, though countries around the world are trying to keep fuel affordable.
Darian Kane-Stolz said that growing up in New York, she was always concerned with climate change. She taught neighbors how to recycle.
When Kane-Stolz, 25, enrolled at the University of Texas at Austin seven years ago, she felt that joining the petroleum-engineering program was consistent with her desire to have a positive impact on the planet.
Now a BP engineer bringing wells online in the Gulf of Mexico, she said the attitude toward the industry has drastically shifted within her cohort. Before she goes out with friends, she sometimes prepares talking points in case someone attacks the industry.
“There’s definitely a negative perception out there,” said Kane-Stolz.
BP this year launched a new $4 million fellowship program with U.S. universities to provide students with exposure to the energy industry. It also said last year that it planned to double the size of its apprenticeship program to 2,000 people this decade.
“To achieve our goal of reimagining energy, we need the brightest talent,” said a BP spokesperson.
Meanwhile, Kane-Stolz’s alma mater, the University of Texas, is working on adding a new master’s degree without the word “petroleum” to capture a broader group of students who still want to work in energy-related engineering, said Jon E. Olson, the department chair of petroleum and geoscience at UT.
Other universities are ending their petroleum engineering degrees or rebranding them. Imperial College London—formerly housing the Royal School of Mines—shut its program last year and replaced it with one in geo-energy with machine learning and data science.
Analysts and company officials say a steady flow of talent is critical to company efforts to build out infrastructure needed to curb emissions and develop clean-energy and low-carbon businesses.
“One of the scarcest resources at the moment seems to be people,” said Aslak Hellestø, a business adviser for Northern Lights, a carbon capture and storage project off the coast of Norway operated by European energy companies Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies.
“This is groundbreaking technology and we cannot afford to try and fail,” he said. “We need young people with new ideas and bright minds to make it right the first time.”
“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.
Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.
African migrants recently sailed in a wooden boat in the Mediterranean Sea toward Europe. JOAN MATEU PARRA/ASSOCIATED PRESSRising Money Flows, Fueled by Record Migration, Prop Up Autocrats
Remittances to the developing world hit record $647 billion, aiding the poor but helping keep strongmen from Nicaragua to Tajikistan in power African migrants recently sailed in a wooden boat in the Mediterranean Sea toward Europe.
WSJ by Ryan Dubé, Aug. 6, 2023LIMA, Peru—More people than ever are migrating worldwide, with millions of people sending home record amounts of cash that fund small businesses in Uganda and feed families from Ecuador to Nepal.
But the remittances also provide critical support to fragile states and autocratic regimes which rely on money earned by their citizens abroad to keep their economies afloat.
In Venezuela, a third of households depend on money transferred home from the more than 7.3 million migrants who fled the country’s economic collapse, according to the Inter-American Dialogue policy group in Washington. In Central Asia, where many former Soviet officials rule, migrants send so much money that the funds cover their nations’ trade deficits, economists say. In Nicaragua, remittances have become so vital to the tax revenue of President Daniel Ortega’s regime that some economists say reducing the flow of the funds would be a form of political resistance.
“If you didn’t have remittances, the national economy would collapse,” said Enrique Sáenz, an exiled Nicaraguan economist. “And in macroeconomic terms, Ortega would be in deep trouble.”
The growing flow of money creates a challenge for reformers seeking to exert economic pressure on autocratic leaders. But limiting remittances would hurt the vulnerable families of migrants who remain back home and reliant on money transfers.
“Remittances are one of the most difficult issues we can deal with,” said Ryan Berg, a political scientist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Nobody really wants to touch that issue because who would ever, from a policy standpoint, try to interfere with remittances as a point of pressuring dictatorships when we all know people are suffering.”
Since 2010, remittances to the developing world have nearly doubled, rising to a record $647 billion last year, more than foreign direct investments to those countries and more than international development aid, according to the World Bank.
In Nepal, a young and fragile democracy where remittances account for close to a quarter of GDP, inflows from migrant workers have helped keep a lid on bubbling anger at the government over its handling of the pandemic and a recent recession, said Jeevan Baniya, an expert on migration at the Kathmandu-based research institute Social Science Baha.
“Had it not been for the inflow of remittances, we would have likely experienced some kind of social or political upheaval,” Baniya said. “Remittances end up reinforcing the existing power structure.”
In Egypt, money sent by migrants provides three times more revenue than the government takes in from the state-owned Suez Canal, while remittances to Mexico surpassed the dollars generated by international tourism and oil exports.
“Remittances have become a financial lifeline for developing countries,” said Dilip Ratha, a World Bank economist and remittances expert.
The millions of money transfers a year, each one often just a few hundred dollars at a time, are being spurred by soaring migration to the U.S. and Europe since the Covid-19 pandemic. Migrants are arriving in affluent countries that have labor shortages, allowing them to find higher-paying jobs and send more money home.
Some economists say that if remittances become too big, they can hurt longer-term development and create governance problems.
Connel Fullenkamp, a Duke University economist, said remittances can start to become problematic once they go above 5% to 10% of a nation’s gross domestic product. The money can reduce incentives to work for those who receive the funds, he said. They can also curb demands on the government to fix domestic problems that cause migration in the first place.
“If you get remittances, it causes you to care less about what is really going on in your own backyard, because you can always tap your relatives overseas for more transfers,” said Fullenkamp, who has written studies on remittances for the International Monetary Fund. “Politicians are well aware.”
Some of the world’s most remittance-dependent nations are ruled by autocratic regimes where people have few economic opportunities—save for leaving.
“These countries have stronger currencies than they would otherwise have, and they have less inflation than what they would otherwise have,” said Roman Mogilevskii, an economist at the Philippines-based Asian Development Bank.
In the Central Asian nation of Tajikistan, money from migrants mainly working in Russia make up close to half of the country’s GDP, according to the World Bank.
Remittances there have helped authoritarian President Emomali Rahmon maintain his three-decades-old grip on power, according to scholars on the country. Navruz Nekbakhtshoev, a political scientist from Tajikistan who lives in Nebraska, said the remittances calm grievances and demands on officials by feeding families back home. The mass outflow of young people to fund the cash flow also removes people who might otherwise challenge the political status quo.
“It works to stabilize the regime,” he said. “As long as this exit path exists for the people, the autocratic regime can basically stay in power.”
With Russia’s economy struggling because of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, migrants could have fewer job opportunities, affecting remittances, economists say.
That is prompting Tajikistan and other Central Asian governments to try to reduce their dependence on Russia by promoting migrant paths to other places such as Turkey and England, said Zachary Witlin, an expert on the region at the Eurasia Group.
In fragile, democratic countries, a large drop in remittances can contribute to unrest. In Sri Lanka, where more money arrives from the diaspora than what is earned from tea exports, remittances fell by nearly half from 2020 to 2022. That contributed to a balance-of-payment crisis that drained the country’s foreign-exchange reserves and left it unable to pay for imports or service its external debt. Amid mass unrest, the president fled the country last year.
Elsewhere, a decline in remittances could just push more people to leave as rulers repress dissent.
Cuba first allowed remittances after the unraveling in the 1990s of its benefactor, the Soviet Union, brought about a sharp economic contraction. The Western Hemisphere’s lone Communist country realized that allowing some people to leave could serve as an important source of hard currency, historians say.
“Remittances can in some ways grease the wheel of a system that doesn’t work,” said Ted Henken, author of books on Cuba and a professor at New York’s Baruch College. “A Cuban in Miami or Madrid might be worth more to the Cuban government just in terms of GDP.”
Then from 2019 to 2021, remittances to Cuba fell more than 70% as a result of the pandemic and tougher U.S. sanctions designed partly to block the Cuban military from profiting from the transfers. The Cuban military was taking a cut of the “well-intentioned, generous funds” that Cuban-Americans sent back to their families, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in 2020.
With tourism to Cuba also drying up, people took to the streets to demand an end to a regime in power since 1959.
Today, remittances remain far below prepandemic levels and Cuban immigrant families in the U.S. increasingly bankroll the departure of their relatives from the island, said Emilio Morales, president of the Havana Consulting Group, a Miami-based firm that tracks Cuba’s economy.
“The situation is so chaotic that people prefer to invest in getting their family out of Cuba,” he said.
In Venezuela, an economy that has contracted 75% over the past decade, remittances are crucial for the people who have stayed in the country under the autocratic and bankrupt government of President Nicolás Maduro, said Angel Alvarado, a Venezuelan economist at the University of Pennsylvania.
“You can ask, ‘How are people not dying of hunger in Venezuela?’” Alvarado said. “The answer is that they have at least one child living abroad, sending money for food and medicine.”
In Nicaragua, remittances more than doubled from 2018 to 2022 after President Ortega violently put down protests. This year, they are expected to account for about 33% of the country’s GDP, one of the highest rates in Latin America, said Manuel Orozco, a Nicaraguan economist at the Inter-American Dialogue.
Marta Ortega, 45, a Nicaraguan who found work cooking in homes in Costa Rica, said she never considered her transfers could support a regime she opposes. She just wanted to help her mother.
“It wasn’t a lot,” said Ortega. “But it was really important.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image by Germán & Co“Pope” calls for action on migrant deaths calling the Mediterranean 'a cemetery'
Euronews Digital with AP, AFP, EVN, August 7, 2023Pope Francis calls for action to save the lives of migrants who perish in the Mediterranean, or the deserts of North Africa, trying to reach Europe
Pope Francis has expressed his concerns for the welfare of migrants trying to reach Europe, saying the seas of the Mediterranean and the deserts of North Africa have become ‘cemeteries’ for them.
The Pope was speaking to journalists on his flight home from Portugal where he had held a mass for 1.5 million people to mark World Youth Day.
He told reporters the migration issue would be discussed thoroughly when the Diocese of Marseille holds its Mediterranean Meetings event from 18 to 24 September. Pope Francis will participate in some of the meetings in September where senior clerics and politicians will discuss economic equality, migration and climate change.
The remarks come two weeks after the leader of the world's 1.3 billion Roman Catholics called on global leaders to help migrants stranded in the deserts of North Africa, and also recalled extreme climate events and the need to address global warming.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Nicolás Petro with his father, President Gustavo Petro, in an image shared on his social networks on 14 January 2023, under the slogan "You have the floor".
NICOLASPETROBURGOS (COURTESY)/Editions by Germán & CoColombia in —Petrified State—
The initial year of Gustavo Petro's administration has been full of ups and downs, with the government demonstrating both boldness in breaking paradigms and disappointing periods, creating a sense of freefall.
"El Pais", written by Maria Jimena Duzan on August 7, 2023/ Translations and English editions provided by Germán & Co.The first year of Gustavo Petro's administration has been like riding a rollercoaster. Sometimes an ascent can be exhilarating, especially if the government is eager to break from convention. But one cannot ignore the feeling of despair during a descent. His first year in power ends amidst a disaster, leaving us feeling helpless.
On this occasion, the fall from grace happened due to an unexpected betrayer - his son Nicolás. He, an anguished young man who was deprived of his father's affection, recently accused him of a non-existent offence. Nicolás told the prosecutor's office that he had evidence suggesting that his father, President Petro, knew about unreported financial contributions made to his campaign, which is an offence in Colombia.
So far, Nicolás Petro has not provided any evidence incriminating his father in the alleged corruption and his narrative has been inconsistent. At first, he stated that his father was not aware of the illegal funding of his campaign, however, he later contradicted himself by claiming the opposite. In a recent interview, Nicolás partly excused his father from involvement in the case by stating that he did not inform him about the funds he had solicited from unreliable sources under his father's name. Nevertheless, he implied that President Petro was aware of donations made to his campaign by established contractors, which were not reported in the accounts. Despite Nicolás Petro's contradictory statements, his accusations against his father have triggered a crisis that has left the country in a state of fear.
The political crisis unleashed by Nicolás Petro, without exaggeration, has turned into a Greek tragedy, being the product of an act of spite.
Nicolás' ex-wife Day Vásquez revealed his corruption in an interview with Semana magazine. She was hurt and envious after he abandoned her for her best friend. Day revealed that Nicolás had set up a corruption network behind his father's back. He took advantage of being the president's son and diverted money from unscrupulous contractors. Nicolás and his accomplices claimed that the money was intended for his father's presidential campaign, but it was diverted for their own personal gain. Nicolás is under investigation by the Attorney General's Office.
When Nicolás was seeking support from his father during this difficult time, the president withdrew his support. The president guaranteed the nation that he wouldn't exercise his authority to manipulate the proceedings against his son. Following the declaration of his dedication to the Constitution, he wished his son good luck in these challenging moments.
In a country more accustomed to seeing presidents use their power to protect family members who have run afoul of the law, Petro's reaction came as a refreshing balm, but the calm did not last long. His son Nicolás felt that his father had left him alone. He tried to call him several times but got no answer and according to his own confession in an interview, he even tried to threaten him, letting him know that if he was left alone, he could tell many things about the campaign, but he did not get an answer either.
Then came another freefall, after he was captured together with his ex-wife. Shattered, he decided to plunge the knife and point the finger at his father.
This act of revenge hits Petro where it hurts the most because it equates him with traditional and corrupt politics, which moves clienteles and buys votes and is nourished by a perverse network of contractors, a political world from which Petro has wanted to dissociate himself.
His son has given his enemies new incentives and they will surely use this family tragedy to take advantage of it, magnify the scandal and fill it with superlatives, especially now that the regional elections are coming up.
Presidential campaign finance scandals in Colombia have always been a circus. The control bodies in charge of investigating have been quick to shelve these processes, despite the evidence. This happened with the presidential campaign of pro-Uribe candidate Óscar Iván Zuluaga in 2014, which was investigated for having received money from Odebrecht under the table. It was shelved by the National Electoral Council for lack of evidence, even though there was evidence that the campaign had received 1.6 million dollars from Odebrecht under the table (six years later, without knowing why, the Attorney General's Office dusted off this evidence and has just charged Óscar Iván Zuluaga).
Something similar happened with Juan Manuel Santos' re-election campaign. Despite evidence showing how the campaign had been financed with money from a mega highway to be built by Odebrecht and its partner Episol, part of the Sarmiento group, the investigation was shelved by the National Electoral Council due to expiry of time limits, and the Attorney General's Office did not even investigate it. Even more grotesque is what the current attorney general, Francisco Barbosa, did when the scandal about possible illegal financing of the campaign of Iván Duque, his university roommate, was uncovered. According to the complaint, a criminal gang led by a —narco— businessman who was later murdered in Brazil had collected money to finance the second round of Iván Duque's campaign. The Prosecutor's Office closed the investigation without having made any arrests.
With Petro, things seem to be going to be at a different price. On this occasion, the regulatory bodies do not want to turn a blind eye as they did in the past, and they have their antennae up. This should be good news if it were not for the fact that they are not very interested in investigating in accordance with the law. In an unprecedented act, the prosecutor Barbosa raided the Casa de Nariño (Presidential Palace) as if it were Ali Baba's cave, with the aim of obtaining information that he could have requested through official means. Without evidence, he insinuated that there were illegal interceptions from the Casa de Nariño, when he has shelved an investigation that was opened based on a complaint made by Petro's campaign at the time. There is evidence that it was intercepted by police agents operating from the Casa de Nariño when Duque was president.
Nicolás Petro was captured when he had not even been charged, but in other cases in which those under investigation are right-wing politicians, the Attorney General's Office is generous and condescending. In the hearing of the president's son, the Prosecutor's Office arbitrarily designed a flow chart to show the connections that Nicolás Petro had, in which it included half the government. This organigram was later presented by several media outlets as if all these names were part of a criminal network. The Prosecutors investigations were so arbitrary that they had the luxury of not including the name of Alex Char in the organigramme, the dauphin of the powerful “Char” clan, Corrected version: Whom the Barbosa Prosecution has decided not to touch even with the petal of a rose, despite the fact that he has more than thirty investigations for corruption and that he also appears in Day Vásquez's chats.
Many predict that the same thing will happen to Petro as happened to Ernesto Samper, the progressive president whose campaign was accused of having been financed by the “Cali cartel” in the 1994 elections. He was unable to push through his agenda for change because he ran out of time defending himself.
If this country were the same as it was 30 years ago, the comparison would be valid, but it is not. Samper managed to stay in power because he always had the support of the big economic powers that kept him in power even though the US embassy and many of us media and journalists were on the other side. Petro, who is Colombia's first left-wing president, has (curiously) good relations with the Americans, but he is still viewed with distrust by the economic groups, which now also own the few remaining media outlets. Several of these media outlets have become the main mouthpieces of an increasingly selective Attorney General's Office, generous to its friends but implacable towards anything that has to do with Petro's government. The president does not have it easy.
Despite this panorama, it would be foolish to say that the ones to blame for Petro's reformist agenda being stuck are the media and the elites who oppose the reforms. So far, the main culprit for his reforms not seeing the light of day is Petro's lack of leadership when it comes to putting together a coalition government.
However, this tragedy that exposes a dysfunctional presidential family, which navigates between revenge, hatred, feelings of guilt, jealousy, betrayal, and power, is the best ammunition Petro's enemies must strike at his political project. Anything that moves the baser instincts is worth gold in this world governed by digital networks.
The logo of energy technology company Siemens Energy is displayed during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File PhotoSiemens Energy books $2.4 billion in charges on wind turbines
A significant increase in its net loss for 2023, projecting a more than six-fold jump to 4.5 billion euros.
Reuters By Christoph Steitz and Alexander Hübner, August 7, 2023FRANKFURT/MUNICH, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) on Monday said problems recently unveiled at its wind turbine unit would cost it 2.2 billion euros ($2.4 billion), well short of worst-case estimates but still casting doubt over the future of the business.
The charges will inflate Siemens Energy's net loss more than six-fold in 2023 to 4.5 billion euros, the company said, as it published third-quarter results showing a record order backlog of 106 billion euros due to strong demand.
The company also cut its sales outlook, and issued a new, lower profit outlook after withdrawing it in the wake of the disclosed issues, which include faulty components for its newer onshore turbines and ramp-up problems for offshore production.
Siemens Energy shares reversed an opening fall of as much as 7% to stand 2.7% higher at 0819 GMT, with analysts saying that the price tag should provide relief to those that feared even higher financial fallout.
"While the results are negative, they are not as bad as feared by some investors," JP Morgan analysts said, adding an additional 700 million euro writedown on deferred tax assets meant the group may take the opportunity to "clear the decks".
Siemens Energy shocked markets in late June when it announced a wide set of problems at Siemens Gamesa, one of the world's biggest wind turbine makers, just weeks after it managed to fully acquire the business it formerly only partly owned.
While in line with Siemens Energy's own estimate of more than 1 billion euros, Monday's cost tally for the issues is below the most pessimistic market estimate of more than 5 billion euros issued by UBS.
Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch said that while the situation at Siemens Gamesa was a "massive setback", the performance of the group's remaining units, including gas turbines and power converter stations, provided a silver lining.
The new set of problems at Siemens Gamesa, including faulty blades and gears at some of its 4.X and 5.X onshore models, have cost the company around a third, or more than 6 billion euros, in market value.
Siemens Energy, which has drafted in Alix Partners to help fix quality issues with Siemens Gamesa's newer onshore models, said it was currently reviewing its wind strategy and would update markets at a capital markets day in November.
Bruch said wind remained a strategically relevant growth market but added that it was paramount that the business is profitable, something which Siemens Gamesa has failed to achieve in recent years.
Thank Goodness It is Friday, For Others, a Time of Deep Loneliness
Thank Goodness It is Friday, For Others, a Time of Deep Loneliness
Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the liveliest lives. It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, waiting for unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence. Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakdown of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold. Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection. The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness. Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilling winter breeze.
Image by Germán & Co
Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the liveliest lives. It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, waiting for unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence. Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakdown of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold. Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection. The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness. Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilling winter breeze.
In this desolate landscape, mental health struggles emerge, casting a long shadow over individuals. Anxiety, a relentless companion, tightens its grip around the heart, planting seeds of doubt that offer a dark temptation to escape from the eternal pain.
This enigmatic blonde, Marilyn Monroe has captivated the world as one of the most beautiful women in history. However, behind her glamorous facade lies a complex and troubled existence, often categorized as a myth by some. Monroe's genetic inheritance from her mother proved to be a double-edged sword, as it played a significant role in her battle with depression and bipolar disorder. The priest Ernesto Cardenal, a Trappist monk, was unjustly denied the Nobel Prize for Literature by the Swedish Academy. The academy has made many mistakes in its history. However, thanks to the forces of nature, Sweden remains a country where everyone must be held accountable for their sins, regardless of their position in society. Consequently, the Swedish Academy is now embarking on a new, transparent path. Ernesto and the stunning blonde —- Norma Jeanne Mortenson —- shared a platonic love in this place. She herself passionately sings "Happy Birthday To You" to President John F. Kennedy; adly and mysteriously, Kennedy was killed in Dallas one day in November 1963, among other stories. Ernesto delved into her mind to write "Pray for Marilyn Monroe," which becomes a radiograph of the interior of a person tormented by feelings of anguish, who, in the end, can no longer bear the suffering.
Here, we delve into the life of Ernest Hemingway, a man renowned for his toughness and resilience. However, beneath his rugged exterior lay a soul scarred by the horrors of war, forever leaving an indelible mark. This story holds profound significance in our present era, as the echoes of a new Cold War resonate throughout our world. Hemingway's spirit, already weakened by the atrocities he witnessed, eventually succumbed to the demons that plagued him within this chaotic world. His battles were not confined solely to the physical realm but extended into the depths of his being, where war wounds had taken root.
As we embark upon the weekend, we are implored to seek respite and inner peace amidst the clamour and turmoil of everyday life. Let us embrace the Sabbath and allow its tranquillity to permeate our weary souls. By doing so, we can nourish our spirits and find the fortitude to confront the challenges that lie ahead. Hemingway's story serves as a cautionary tale, reminding us of the fragility of the human psyche and the paramount importance of safeguarding our mental and emotional well-being.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
News round-up, August 4, 2023
Thank goodness it is Friday…
Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the liveliest lives. It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, waiting for unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence. Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakdown of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold. Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection. The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness. Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilling winter breeze…
Most read…
Why There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin
THE MOSCOW TIME BY *KONSTANTIN SONIN, TODAY The U.S. and Europe Are Growing Alarmed by China’s Rush Into Legacy Chips
TIME BY JENNY LEONARD, IAN KING AND ALBERTO NARDELLI / BLOOMBERG, TODAY Son of Colombia's president admits illegal money entered election campaign, prosecutor says
REUTERS BY CARLOS VARGAS, AUGUST 4, 2023 ConocoPhillips signs 20-year LNG supply deals with Mexico Pacific
REUTERS BY ARATHY SOMASEKHAR, AUGUST 3, 2023 Britain’s creaking energy grid isn’t ready for net zero
Government-ordered report says UK should compensate people living near new pylons in bid to speed up development.
POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER, AUGUST 4, 2023 U.S. Employers Added 187,000 Jobs in July
Hiring held steady and unemployment rate fell to 3.5%
WSJ BY GABRIEL T. RUBIN, AUG. 4, 2023 Image by Germán & CoThank goodness it is Friday…
Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the liveliest lives. It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, waiting for unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence. Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakdown of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold. Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection. The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness. Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilling winter breeze.
In this desolate landscape, mental health struggles emerge, casting a long shadow over individuals. Anxiety, a relentless companion, tightens its grip around the heart, planting seeds of doubt that offer a dark temptation to escape from the eternal pain.
This enigmatic blonde, Marilyn Monroe has captivated the world as one of the most beautiful women in history. However, behind her glamorous facade lies a complex and troubled existence, often categorized as a myth by some. Monroe's genetic inheritance from her mother proved to be a double-edged sword, as it played a significant role in her battle with depression and bipolar disorder. The priest Ernesto Cardenal, a Trappist monk, was unjustly denied the Nobel Prize for Literature by the Swedish Academy. The academy has made many mistakes in its history. However, thanks to the forces of nature, Sweden remains a country where everyone must be held accountable for their sins, regardless of their position in society. Consequently, the Swedish Academy is now embarking on a new, transparent path. Ernesto and the stunning blonde —- Norma Jeanne Mortenson —- shared a platonic love in this place. She herself passionately sings "Happy Birthday To You" to President John F. Kennedy; adly and mysteriously, Kennedy was killed in Dallas one day in November 1963, among other stories. Ernesto delved into her mind to write "Pray for Marilyn Monroe," which becomes a radiograph of the interior of a person tormented by feelings of anguish, who, in the end, can no longer bear the suffering.
Here, we delve into the life of Ernest Hemingway, a man renowned for his toughness and resilience. However, beneath his rugged exterior lay a soul scarred by the horrors of war, forever leaving an indelible mark. This story holds profound significance in our present era, as the echoes of a new Cold War resonate throughout our world. Hemingway's spirit, already weakened by the atrocities he witnessed, eventually succumbed to the demons that plagued him within this chaotic world. His battles were not confined solely to the physical realm but extended into the depths of his being, where war wounds had taken root.
As we embark upon the weekend, we are implored to seek respite and inner peace amidst the clamour and turmoil of everyday life. Let us embrace the Sabbath and allow its tranquillity to permeate our weary souls. By doing so, we can nourish our spirits and find the fortitude to confront the challenges that lie ahead. Hemingway's story serves as a cautionary tale, reminding us of the fragility of the human psyche and the paramount importance of safeguarding our mental and emotional well-being.
Most read…
Why There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin
The Moscow time By *Konstantin Sonin, TODAYThe U.S. and Europe Are Growing Alarmed by China’s Rush Into Legacy Chips
TIME BY JENNY LEONARD, IAN KING AND ALBERTO NARDELLI / BLOOMBERG, TODAYSon of Colombia's president admits illegal money entered election campaign, prosecutor says
Reuters By Carlos Vargas, August 4, 2023ConocoPhillips signs 20-year LNG supply deals with Mexico Pacific
Reuters by Arathy Somasekhar, August 3, 2023Britain’s creaking energy grid isn’t ready for net zero
Government-ordered report says UK should compensate people living near new pylons in bid to speed up development.
POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER, AUGUST 4, 2023U.S. Employers Added 187,000 Jobs in July
Hiring held steady and unemployment rate fell to 3.5%
WSJ By Gabriel T. Rubin, Aug. 4, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Image by Germán & CoWhy There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin
The Moscow time By *Konstantin Sonin, TODAY“No one wants to negotiate with Russia,” President Vladimir Putin has complained several times on camera in recent days. He would like to reach a peace agreement or a ceasefire, he claims, but there are no negotiations.
Why are there no negotiations with Putin? This question is not as simple as it may appear. Nevertheless, there are two main reasons.
The first reason, the "image of the war," is obvious, but Putin does not understand it, and no one can explain it to him.
The second reason, which is much more significant, is structural: Putin lacks the ability to take on binding commitments. In reality, it's precisely this structural reason that impedes negotiations.
The image of the war
Since Feb. 24, 2022, the first day of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the main images of the war in the international media have been of residential buildings in Ukrainian cities destroyed by Russian rockets; civilians killed and wounded; and women, children and elderly refugees. For any ordinary person, this war is associated with photographs of peaceful Ukrainian civilians executed by Russian soldiers in Bucha, mass graves uncovered in liberated Lyman and Irpin, and flooded houses after the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. And the responsibility for all of this falls on Putin and his ministers and generals. No matter how cynical a Western politician might be, they cannot negotiate with Putin, because the average person in their country sees what is happening on the frontlines and in the rear. How can you negotiate with those who are responsible for this war?
The fact that the war is being broadcast in real-time was obviously something that those who prepared and launched it did not expect. Columns of Russian tanks on Ukrainian roads, missile and bomb strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure — all of this is shown on television screens and newspaper front pages at the frequency at which they happen. While not shown live, the murders of civilians in Bucha and Irpin have since been documented by dozens of news agencies and international organizations. This is the first war in human history that the world is observing live, as it unfolds. Those who initiated this war are naturally perceived as criminals, not as partners for negotiation.
The difficulty for Putin and his closest associates is that they, of course, do not understand the image of the war that is seen by the whole world. They live in their own specially crafted reality, in which there were no cameras for torturing detainees during the occupation of Kherson, no executions of civilians and unarmed Russian prisoners of war in Bucha, and no Russian aerial strike on the Mariupol theater, where women and children sought refuge from bombings. Not only does this not exist in Putin's world, but even if he had an adequate adviser now, he couldn't tell Putin about it! In Putin's Russia, speaking the truth about the war is forbidden — even if it is necessary for cynical, pragmatic reasons.
Putin should be told that in order to create a possibility for negotiations, he needs to publicly appoint investigations into the crimes committed in the occupied and subsequently liberated territories. The leadership of the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade and perhaps the entire 35th and 36th Armies of the Eastern Military District, the 331st and 137th Airborne Regiments, the 104th and 234th Assault Landing Regiments, and other military units responsible for the killings of civilians in Bucha should be brought to trial. Officers and soldiers directly responsible for these crimes should be appropriately punished. The same goes for other key episodes.
The same applies to those who could engage in negotiations. Who would negotiate with Lavrov, Polyanskiy, Antonov, and other “diplomats” who lied to the whole world about Bucha with a straight face?
But who can say this to Putin? Who can answer his question, “Why aren't they negotiating with us?” if the answer to this question is considered a crime under his laws? The “information bubble” in which Putin and his entourage live is not a journalistic metaphor. It consists of a powerful institutional structure, laws, and people who are imprisoned based on those laws. Putin does not know how the whole world perceives the Russo-Ukrainian war, and he cannot find out.
The structural reason
"The war's image" is an important reason why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Western politicians are not negotiating with Putin, but it is not the most important. Yes, negotiating with someone who ordered an aggressive war and demands recognition of his conquered territories is difficult due to internal political constraints. It's challenging but possible. Negotiations were once conducted with Pol Pot, a bloodthirsty maniac worse than Stalin or Mao; with Gaddafi, a dictator almost as bloody; with Arafat, responsible for terrorist attacks against civilians; and other leaders too toxic to negotiate with publicly. After all, professional diplomats are essentially doctors who treat patients regardless of their moral qualities.
The difficulty lies in the fact that negotiations with Putin are currently pointless because he cannot make any meaningful commitments. He can make promises in words, but in reality, these promises are worthless. Over his 20-year rule, he has practically promised everything — his signature is on the border treaty with Ukraine, for example. And he violated it all. Over the past two years, he has broken almost every promise he made. Again, Putin himself may not even know about this. I suspect it would be a terrible risk for his subordinates to remind him of what he said a month, a year, or even a week ago. But everyone else knows that he breaks all of his promises. No matter how pragmatic and cynical a negotiator might be, what is the point of such negotiations?
Of course, Putin's inability to make binding commitments is not his personal problem. It is an institutional one. This is where the parliament would come in handy, but it is completely destroyed — in the sense that everyone knows that whatever laws the deputies may pass, they can cancel them tomorrow at the administration’s request.
Unlike countries where parliaments work, in the Russia of 2023, the parliament is not a source of independent guarantees. It is not a mechanism that can provide binding commitments. The same applies to any Russian institution, be it ministries or regional administrations. They cannot be a source of independent guarantees. Putin's promises, whatever they may be, cannot be backed up by anything.
It is not surprising that no one in the West counts on negotiations with Putin. See above; how can you negotiate with someone who will inevitably violate the agreements? Even if he does not want to violate them now and genuinely believes in them, nothing in Russia can compel him to keep those agreements. That is precisely why the current plan — no negotiations until the defeat of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory, and post-war guarantees of Ukraine's security through NATO membership — appears to be the only realistic option, even for the most hardened cynics.
*Konstantin Sonin is a professor at the University of Chicago
The 2023 World Semiconductor Conference at Nanjing International Expo Center on July 19 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province of China.The U.S. and Europe Are Growing Alarmed by China’s Rush Into Legacy Chips
TIME BY JENNY LEONARD, IAN KING AND ALBERTO NARDELLI / BLOOMBERG, TODAYPresident Joe Biden implemented broad controls over China’s ability to secure the kind of advanced chips that power artificial-intelligence models and military applications. But Beijing responded by pouring billions into factories for the so-called legacy chips that haven’t been banned. Such chips are still essential throughout the global economy, critical components for everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to military hardware.
That’s sparked fresh fears about China’s potential influence and triggered talks of further reining in the Asian nation, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The U.S. is determined to prevent chips from becoming a point of leverage for China, the people said.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo alluded to the problem during a panel discussion last week at the American Enterprise Institute. “The amount of money that China is pouring into subsidizing what will be an excess capacity of mature chips and legacy chips — that’s a problem that we need to be thinking about and working with our allies to get ahead of,” she said.
While there’s no timeline for action to be taken and information is still being gathered, all options are on the table, according to a senior Biden administration official. A U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman declined to comment, while a European Commission spokesperson said the agency will take necessary measures to preserve its interests and was working to reduce the region’s dependence on foreign firms for both mature and advanced chips.
The most advanced semiconductors are those produced using the thinnest etching technology, with 3-nanometers state of the art today. Legacy chips are typically considered those made with 28-nm equipment or above, technology introduced more than a decade ago.
Senior E.U. and U.S. officials are concerned about Beijing’s drive to dominate this market for both economic and security reasons, the people said. They worry Chinese companies could dump their legacy chips on global markets in the future, driving foreign rivals out of business like in the solar industry, they said.
Western companies may then become dependent on China for these semiconductors, the people said. Buying such critical tech components from China may create national security risks, especially if the silicon is needed in defense equipment.
“The United States and its partners should be on guard to mitigate nonmarket behavior by China’s emerging semiconductor firms,” researchers Robert Daly and Matthew Turpin wrote in a recent essay for the Hoover Institution think tank at Stanford University. “Over time, it could create new U.S. or partner dependencies on China-based supply chains that do not exist today, impinging on U.S. strategic autonomy.”
The importance of legacy chips was highlighted by supply shocks that roiled companies at the height of the Covid pandemic, including Apple Inc. and carmakers. Chip shortages cost businesses hundreds of billions of dollars in lost sales. Simple components, such as power management circuits, are essential for products like smartphones and electric vehicles, as well as military gear like missiles and radar.
The U.S. and Europe are trying to build up their own domestic chip production to decrease reliance on Asia. Governments have set aside public money to support local factories, including the Biden administration’s $52 billion for the CHIPS and Science Act.
But domestic producers may be reluctant to invest in facilities that will have to compete with heavily subsidized Chinese plants. The Biden administration and its allies are gauging the willingness of Western companies to invest in such projects before they decide what action to take.
While the U.S. rules introduced last October slowed down China’s development of advanced chipmaking capabilities, they left largely untouched the country’s ability to use techniques older than 14-nanometers. That has led Chinese firms to construct new plants faster than anywhere else in the world. They are forecast to build 26 fabs through 2026 that use 200-millimeter and 300-mm wafers, according to the trade group SEMI. That compares with 16 fabs for the Americas.
Heavy investments have allowed Chinese companies to keep supplying the West, despite rising tensions between Washington and Beijing. China’s chipmaking champion, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., got about 20% of last year’s sales from U.S.-based clients, including Qualcomm Inc., despite being blacklisted by the American government.
“When you think about electrification of mobility, think about the energy transition, the IoT in the industrial space, the roll-out of the telecommunication infrastructure, battery technology, that’s all — that’s the sweet spot of mid-critical and mature semiconductor,” Peter Wennink, chief executive officer of Dutch chipmaking equipment supplier ASML Holding NV, told analysts in mid-July. “And that’s where China without any exception is leading.”
“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.
Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.
Nicolas Petro, son of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, speaks at the Atlantic Assembly in Barranquilla, Colombia on March 14, 2023, in this screengrab taken from a handout video. Asamblea del Atlantico / Handout via REUTERS/File PhotoSon of Colombia's president admits illegal money entered election campaign, prosecutor says
Reuters By Carlos Vargas, August 4, 2023BOGOTA, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Nicolas Petro, the eldest son of Colombian President Gustavo Petro, on Thursday admitted that illegal money entered his father's election campaign last year, the prosecutor handling the case said on Thursday.
Nicolas Petro, 37, was arrested on Saturday in the city of Barranquilla alongside his ex-wife, Daysuris del Carmen Vasquez, who was quoted in the media in March saying that two people accused of having ties to drug trafficking gave her former spouse cash to support the president's election campaign.
"Mr. Nicolas Fernando Petro Burgos gave relevant information that was unknown until now by the attorney general's office, including ... about the financing of the past presidential campaign of the current president, Mr Gustavo Petro Urrego," prosecutor Mario Burgos said during the hearing, where Nicolas Petro was present.
The information pertained to campaign funding, which appeared to exceed legal limits, and some of which was not reported to electoral authorities, Burgos added.
Although Vasquez said the president was not aware of the dealings, the scandal could hamper the Petro administration's pursuit of peace-and-surrender deals with armed groups and its ambitious reform agenda.
The president insisted he will remain in office until 2026, citing the mandate of his election victory.
"No one but the people can end this government," Petro said during a speech in Sincelejo, in Colombia's Sucre province.
Petro denied accusations that he was aware of the illegal activities and said he hoped any claims to the contrary would "vanish quickly."
"The president has never asked any of his sons or daughters to commit the crime to win or finance campaigns, or for anything that has to do with power," Petro said.
According to the charges, Nicolas Petro, a lawmaker in Atlantico province, received money from accused drug traffickers in exchange for including them in the president's peace plans.
He has pleaded not guilty, but said he would collaborate with prosecutors, who accuse him of buying properties valued at the equivalent of about $394,000 with money that did not come from his lawmaker salary.
The charges could lead to sentences of 12 and 20 years in prison.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
The logo of American oil and natural gas exploration and production company ConocoPhillips is seen during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris HelgrenConocoPhillips signs 20-year LNG supply deals with Mexico Pacific
Reuters by Arathy Somasekhar, August 3, 2023The deals, which are subject to the project getting the final go-ahead from Mexico Pacific, would grant Conoco access to LNG from Mexico's Pacific coast, the U.S. company said in a release.
Mexico Pacific last month announced a similar deal to supply 1 million metric tons of LNG a year to China's Zhejiang Energy.
The Saguaro facility will process low-cost gas arriving from the Permian Basin through a dedicated pipeline. Most of the resulting LNG is expected to be bound for the Asian market through a significantly shorter shipping route avoiding the Panama Canal, Mexico Pacific has said.
"We are really interested in adding West Coast LNG into our portfolio," Conoco Chief Financial Officer William Bullock told investors on Thursday on a call about the company's quarterly results. Conoco chose Saguaro over other LNG facilities under construction in Mexico because a final investment decision on that project will come sooner, he said.
"Saguaro is in a quite competitive supply location for deliveries, particularly into Asia, and fits very nice if you think of an acquisition cost for LNG," Bullock added.
Conoco continues to see strong demand for LNG, he said. "We are kind of laddering our build out of market and supply."
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoBritain’s creaking energy grid isn’t ready for net zero
Government-ordered report says UK should compensate people living near new pylons in bid to speed up development.
POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER, AUGUST 4, 2023LONDON — The U.K.’s energy grid is just not ready for the shift to clean power.
That’s the stark finding of a year-long, government-commissioned review published Friday, which warns the country’s existing energy policies are “badly out of date” as a crucial decarbonization deadline looms and Britain eyes a future of electric cars in every driveway and heat pumps in every home.
Getting buy-in for the major changes needed will be a mammoth task, it warns — and could even require cold hard cash payments to a pylon-skeptic British public.
Despite recent anti-green noises, the British government has strict net zero targets, including an interim goal of decarbonizing its power grid by 2035.
Overhauling and expanding the electricity network — the swathes of cables and pylons covering the U.K. — will be central to determining whether the government hits or misses those lofty aims.
In his long-awaited report, Nick Winser, the government’s electricity networks czar, warns that tens of billions of pounds worth of new grid infrastructure will be needed by 2030 in order to hit the country’s climate goals. That’s no easy task.
The National Grid, which oversees Britain’s network, estimates that five times as many high-voltage transmission lines — suspended from pylons or buried underground — will need to be installed before 2030 as were built in the past three decades combined.
This additional infrastructure may require £54 billion of investment, according to forecasts.
Grid capacity will have to expand in the years ahead to meet higher electricity consumption, as more people move to electric vehicles and electric heating in their homes. The grid also needs to be rewired to accommodate more of the U.K.’s electricity coming from offshore wind farms rather than inland gas power stations.
Winser’s report finds it will be “very hard” for the U.K. government to meet its 2035 deadline without building more quickly — and he floats one suggestion for speeding up delivery.
People living near new pylons and other net zero infrastructure should, he argues, get cash compensation. He pitches a combination of both “lump sums” paid to households near new pylons and community funds managed locally and spent on decarbonization schemes.
Pylon backlash
Existing grid projects have sparked fierce opposition in many parts of the U.K., while estate agents have said proximity to power lines can affect house prices.
In a letter to Energy Secretary Grant Shapps, who is expected to endorse the findings, Winser warns that Britain lacks a clear strategic plan for the future of its grid and asks whether, without that: “Is it so surprising that such alarm, emotion and controversy is aroused by the schemes?”
Despite recent anti-green noises, the British government has strict net zero targets, including an interim goal of decarbonizing its power grid by 2035 | Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images
Speaking ahead of the report’s publication, Winser did not put a figure on how much compensation households could receive.
But he pointed out that it can be 10 times cheaper to build an overhead transmission line than to bury the cables underground, arguing that some of the difference in cost could go towards compensating local people “generously.”
Winser is calling for the creation of a new “Strategic Energy Plan for Great Britain” — backed by government — to help forecast likely locations of electricity supply and demand and set out where power lines are actually needed.
He argues that this could unlock investment in infrastructure ahead of actual electricity need, while making it clear to planning authorities — and local communities — that projects have full political and regulatory support.
But a national public information campaign is also required to set out the changes ahead and explain the link to net zero, he warns.
The stakes could hardly be higher. Then-Climate Change Committee chair John Gummer — tasked with scrutinizing Britain’s climate plans — told POLITICO earlier this year that if the U.K. has any hope of fulfilling its big promises, “we need to face up to three words. It’s not education, education, education … It’s grid, grid, grid.’”
Source: WSJU.S. Employers Added 187,000 Jobs in July
Hiring held steady and unemployment rate fell to 3.5%
WSJ By Gabriel T. Rubin, Aug. 4, 2023Hiring has slowed in recent months to near the lowest pace of the pandemic recovery. PHOTO: SOREN LARSON/REUTERS
Hiring held steady as employers added 187,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated that employers in July added 200,000 jobs, essentially unchanged from June, and that the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. Adjusted for seasonality, that payroll gain would represent cooler growth than earlier in the pandemic recovery.
Forecasters estimated wage gains eased very slightly in July. Other recent data showed employer spending on pay and benefits rose more slowly in the second quarter than last year. The Federal Reserve is closely watching wage growth as a sign of inflationary pressures, especially among services providers.
Economists are dialing back their recession expectations after many had projected a downturn, along with job losses, would start midyear in response to Fed interest rate increases. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to a 22-year high last week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t rule out another increase, but noted that the labor market had come into “better balance” in recent months, with fewer open positions and a larger share of Americans working or seeking jobs.
Hiring is likely to slow further later this year, but gradually, said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West. “We’re not seeing or expecting the sort of mass layoffs like we had at the beginning of the pandemic,” he said.
The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession Signal
The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession SignalPlay video: The Hiring Boom Is Hiding a Recession Signal
While some economists are optimistic as hiring booms, employees are actually working fewer hours. Usually, reducing working hours has been a reliable sign of incoming layoffs – and a possible recession. WSJ explains what it may mean moving forward. Illustration: Ryan Trefes
Demand for workers slowly eases
After a jump in January, hiring has slowed in recent months to near the lowest pace of the pandemic recovery. Last year employers added an average of around 400,000 jobs a month, a historically robust rate.
In June, employers reported fewer job openings, including in transportation, warehousing and government.
A fall in demand for workers that doesn’t drive unemployment significantly higher would constitute the rosiest possible outcome for the Fed, which is trying to tamp down inflation without wrecking the labor market. The unemployment rate remains near half-century lows.
Wages in focus
As demand for workers has lessened, their pay gains have slowed. Employers spent 4.5% more on wages and benefits in April to June compared with a year earlier, the Labor Department said last week. That marked a slowing from a 4.8% increase the prior quarter.
Still, wage gains exceed both their prepandemic pace and a rate economists believe lines up with low, stable inflation. Fed officials would likely see 3.5% annual wage growth as consistent with inflation near their 2% target, assuming that worker productivity grows modestly.
“We do expect to see some further moderation in wage growth because of the fact that you see less labor demand,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon.
Signs of weakness
Labor demand varies significantly by industry compared with the widespread job gains that were common earlier in the pandemic recovery.
What do recent employment reports say about the economy? Join the conversation below.
Tech companies, retailers and temp agencies have all slowed hiring or cut jobs of late. Restaurants and bars have added jobs at a slower pace this year after rapidly staffing up in prior years as pandemic restrictions eased.
Hiring is now more concentrated among some employer groups, including healthcare and government. Public-sector employers haven’t yet fully recovered from all the jobs lost during the first months of the pandemic.
News round-up, August 3, 2023
Understanding Poland's Concern
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is intricate and rooted in historical, economic, and political factors. The refusal of the Kremlin to acknowledge Ukraine as an independent nation adds an extra layer of complexity to the situation. This non-recognition is seen as a direct challenge to Western powers and as an attempt by Russia to regain control over Eastern Europe.
Quote of the day…
“Censorship is not what it used to be
“The United States has taken freedom of speech further than any other modern democracy, but today it is a contradictory society, embroiled in implausible culture wars where various kinds of prohibition flourish.
"EL PAÍS, FROM SPAIN, IS PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT NEWSPAPER IN THE SPANISH LANGUAGE. TRANSLATION FROM SPANISH TO ENGLISH BY GERMÁN & CO Most read…
What if We’re the Bad Guys Here?
NYT, AUG. 2, 2023 BY DAVID BROOKS America’s Fiscal Time Bomb Ticks Even Louder
Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. debt rating only caused a flutter in markets, but fiscal strains will soon get harder to ignore
WSJ BY SPENCER JAKAB, AUG. 2, 2023 China's oil and uranium business in Niger
In 2009, the Nigerien government secured a significant loan worth 650 million yuan ($90.93 million) from the Chinese state-owned Eximbank.
REUTERS BY ANDREW HAYLEY,/EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JULY 31, 2023 Why China is not as powerful as the West might think
Xi Jinping’s brand of economic policy is less and less convincing to Western companies. Politicians are waking up, too.
POLITICO EU BY STUART LAU AND PHELIM KINE, AUGUST 3, 2023 America is heavily reliant on Russia for nuclear fuel. Congress might change that.
WSJ ANALYSIS BY MAXINE JOSELOW WITH RESEARCH BY VANESSA MONTALBANO, AUGUST 3, 2023 Image by Germán & CoUnderstanding Poland's Concern
Source: Holocaust EncyclopediaThe ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is intricate and rooted in historical, economic, and political factors. The refusal of the Kremlin to acknowledge Ukraine as an independent nation adds an extra layer of complexity to the situation. This non-recognition is seen as a direct challenge to Western powers and as an attempt by Russia to regain control over Eastern Europe.
One consequence of the occupation of Ukraine is the potential for territorial expansion into neighboring countries, such as Poland, Moldova, and Lithuania. This scenario is not hypothetical; it is crucial to understand its historical context. It is impossible to overlook the influence of Gorbachev on the Soviet Union and the consequent fall of the Berlin Wall. Gorbachev's efforts to modernize the Soviet Union ultimately led to its downfall. The collapse of the Soviet Union had far-reaching effects beyond Russia's borders. As a result, the United States emerged as the dominant global power. This power shift forced the US to reevaluate its military strategies and prioritize modernization to maintain its advantage and safeguard its interests.
The negative outcome of the Cold War had a profound impact on the Soviets, fueling their determination to never be militarily inferior again. If the expansion of the Russian Empire were to occur, it would undoubtedly result in the establishment of a new Iron Curtain, reminiscent of the Cold War era ("As Long as It Takes: Biden Adds to Talk of a New Cold War," published on July 13, 2023, subscribed by David E. Sanger, world's media). This possibility raises significant concerns, particularly for Poland, given its history of invasions. The specter of territorial expansion instills reasonable alarm about potential consequences and destabilization in the region.
Finally, China emerges as the big winner in this crisis. Although it has not explicitly voiced full support for the Kremlin's military operations, the COVID-19 pandemic has taken a toll on the Chinese economy and on economies worldwide. Consequently, a Russian incursion holds the potential for China to exploit the abundant natural resources of Eurasia, including valuable energy sources, oil, and gas reserves.
Quote of the day…
“Censorship is not what it used to be
“The United States has taken freedom of speech further than any other modern democracy, but today it is a contradictory society, embroiled in implausible culture wars where various kinds of prohibition flourish.
"El País, from Spain, is perhaps the most important newspaper in the Spanish language.Translation from Spanish to English by Germán & CoMost read…
What if We’re the Bad Guys Here?
NYT, Aug. 2, 2023 by David BrooksAmerica’s Fiscal Time Bomb Ticks Even Louder
Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. debt rating only caused a flutter in markets, but fiscal strains will soon get harder to ignore
WSJ by Spencer Jakab, Aug. 2, 2023China's oil and uranium business in Niger
In 2009, the Nigerien government secured a significant loan worth 650 million yuan ($90.93 million) from the Chinese state-owned Eximbank.
REUTERS By Andrew Hayley,/Editing by Germán & Co, July 31, 2023Why China is not as powerful as the West might think
Xi Jinping’s brand of economic policy is less and less convincing to Western companies. Politicians are waking up, too.
POLITICO EU BY STUART LAU AND PHELIM KINE, AUGUST 3, 2023America is heavily reliant on Russia for nuclear fuel. Congress might change that.
WSJ Analysis by Maxine Joselow with research by Vanessa Montalbano, August 3, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Source: TWP/Editing by Germán & CoWhat if We’re the Bad Guys Here?
NYT, Aug. 2, 2023 by David BrooksOpinion Columnist
Donald Trump seems to get indicted on a weekly basis. Yet he is utterly dominating his Republican rivals in the polls, and he is tied with Joe Biden in the general election surveys. Trump’s poll numbers are stronger against Biden now than at any time in 2020.
What’s going on here? Why is this guy still politically viable, after all he’s done?
We anti-Trumpers often tell a story to explain that. It was encapsulated in a quote the University of North Carolina political scientist Marc Hetherington gave to my colleague Thomas B. Edsall recently: “Republicans see a world changing around them uncomfortably fast, and they want it to slow down, maybe even take a step backward. But if you are a person of color, a woman who values gender equality or an L.G.B.T. person, would you want to go back to 1963? I doubt it.”
In this story we anti-Trumpers are the good guys, the forces of progress and enlightenment. The Trumpers are reactionary bigots and authoritarians. Many Republicans support Trump no matter what, according to this story, because at the end of the day he’s still the bigot in chief, the embodiment of their resentments, and that’s what matters to them most.
I partly agree with this story; but it’s also a monument to elite self-satisfaction.
So let me try another story on you. I ask you to try on a vantage point in which we anti-Trumpers are not the eternal good guys. In fact, we’re the bad guys.
This story begins in the 1960s, when high school grads had to go off to fight in Vietnam, but the children of the educated class got college deferments. It continues in the 1970s, when the authorities imposed busing on working-class areas in Boston, but not on the upscale communities like Wellesley where they themselves lived.
The ideal that “we’re all in this together” was replaced with the reality that the educated class lives in a world up here, and everybody else is forced into a world down there. Members of our class are always publicly speaking out for the marginalized, but somehow we always end up building systems that serve ourselves.
The most important of those systems is the modern meritocracy. We built an entire social order that sorts and excludes people on the basis of the quality that we possess most: academic achievement. Highly educated parents go to elite schools, marry each other, work at high-paying professional jobs and pour enormous resources into our children, who get into the same elite schools, marry each other and pass their exclusive class privileges down from generation to generation.
Daniel Markovits summarized years of research in his book “The Meritocracy Trap”: “Today, middle-class children lose out to the rich children at school, and middle-class adults lose out to elite graduates at work. Meritocracy blocks the middle class from opportunity. Then it blames those who lose a competition for income and status that, even when everyone plays by the rules, only the rich can win.”
The meritocracy isn’t only a system of exclusion; it’s an ethos. During his presidency Barack Obama used the word “smart” in the context of his policies over 900 times. The implication was that anybody who disagreed with his policies (and perhaps didn’t go to Harvard Law) must be stupid.
Over the last decades we’ve taken over whole professions and locked everybody else out. When I began my journalism career in Chicago in the 1980s, there were still some old crusty working-class guys around the newsroom. Now we’re not only a college-dominated profession, we’re an elite-college-dominated profession. Only 0.8 percent of all college students graduate from the super elite 12 schools (the Ivy League colleges, plus Stanford, M.I.T., Duke and the University of Chicago). A 2018 study found that more than 50 percent of the staff writers at the beloved New York Times and The Wall Street Journal attended one of the 29 most elite universities in the nation.
Writing in Compact magazine, Michael Lind observes that the upper-middle-class job market looks like a candelabrum: “Those who manage to squeeze through the stem of a few prestigious colleges and universities in their youth can then branch out to fill leadership positions in almost every vocation.”
Or, as Markovits puts it, “Elite graduates monopolize the best jobs and at the same time invent new technologies that privilege superskilled workers, making the best jobs better and all other jobs worse.”
Members of our class also segregate ourselves into a few booming metro areas: San Francisco, D.C., Austin and so on. In 2020, Biden won only 500 or so counties, but together they are responsible for 71 percent of the American economy. Trump won over 2,500 counties, responsible for only 29 percent. Once we find our cliques, we don’t get out much. In the book “Social Class in the 21st Century,” sociologist Mike Savage and his co-researchers found that the members of the highly educated class tend to be the most insular, measured by how often we have contact with those who have jobs unlike our
Armed with all kinds of economic, cultural and political power, we support policies that help ourselves. Free trade makes the products we buy cheaper, and our jobs are unlikely to be moved to China. Open immigration makes our service staff cheaper, but new, less-educated immigrants aren’t likely to put downward pressure on our wages.
Like all elites, we use language and mores as tools to recognize one another and exclude others. Using words like problematic, cisgender, Latinx and intersectional is a sure sign that you’ve got cultural capital coming out of your ears. Meanwhile, members of the less-educated classes have to walk on eggshells, because they never know when we’ve changed the usage rules, so that something that was sayable five years ago now gets you fired.
We also change the moral norms in ways that suit ourselves, never mind the cost to others. For example, there used to be a norm that discouraged people from having children outside of marriage, but that got washed away during our period of cultural dominance, as we eroded norms that seemed judgmental or that might inhibit individual freedom.
After this social norm was eroded, a funny thing happened. Members of our class still overwhelmingly married and then had children within wedlock. People without our resources, unsupported by social norms, were less able to do that. As Adrian Wooldridge points out in his magisterial 2021 book, “The Aristocracy of Talent,” “Sixty percent of births to women with only a high school certificate occur out of wedlock, compared with only 10 percent to women with a university degree.” That matters, Wooldridge continues, because “The rate of single parenting is the most significant predictor of social immobility in the country.”
Does this mean that I think the people in my class are vicious and evil? No, most of us are earnest, kind and public spirited. But we take for granted and benefit from systems that have become oppressive. Elite institutions have become so politically progressive in part because the people in them want to feel good about themselves as they take part in systems that exclude and reject.
It’s easy to understand why people in less-educated classes would conclude that they are under economic, political, cultural and moral assault — and why they’ve rallied around Trump as their best warrior against the educated class. Trump understood that it’s not the entrepreneurs who seem most threatening to workers; it’s the professional class. Trump understood that there was great demand for a leader who would stick his thumb in our eyes on a daily basis and reject the whole epistemic regime that we rode in on.
If distrustful populism is your basic worldview, the Trump indictments seem as just another skirmish on the class war between the professionals and the workers, another assault by a bunch of coastal lawyers who want to take down the man who most aggressively stands up to them. Of course, the indictments don’t cause Trump supporters to abandon him. They cause them to become more fiercely loyal. That’s the polling story of the last six months.
Are Trump supporters right that the indictments are just a political witch hunt? Of course not. As a card-carrying member of my class, I still basically trust the legal system and the neutral arbiters of justice. Trump is a monster in the way we’ve all been saying for years and deserves to go to prison.
But there’s a larger context here. As the sociologist E. Digby Baltzell wrote decades ago, “History is a graveyard of classes which have preferred caste privileges to leadership.” That is the destiny our class is now flirting with. We can condemn the Trumpian populists all day until the cows come home, but the real question is when will we stop behaving in ways that make Trumpism inevitable.
Media/Editing by Germán & CoAmerica’s Fiscal Time Bomb Ticks Even Louder
Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. debt rating only caused a flutter in markets, but fiscal strains will soon get harder to ignore
WSJ by Spencer Jakab, Aug. 2, 2023“Everybody who reads the newspaper knows that the United States has a very serious long-term fiscal problem.”
That wasn’t a quote by some financial talking head in the aftermath of Fitch’s downgrade of America’s credit rating on Tuesday. It was a reaction by then chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke the last time a major rating agency took that action back in August 2011. Investors could google hundreds of such warnings over the decades and conclude that the hand-wringing is best ignored or even viewed as a buying opportunity.
For example, a funny thing happened when Standard & Poor’s shocked the financial world 12 years ago: Stocks plunged, getting close to an official bear market, yet investors rushed to buy bonds, the very thing that had supposedly become more risky. Stocks remained unsettled for another couple of months, but an 11-year bull market marched onward.
Investors are drawing false comfort from the past and from the perception that fiscal scolds have cried wolf so often.
True, Treasurys remain the most liquid, coveted asset on earth and the risk-free bedrock off which everything else is priced. And, aside from the temporary plunge in stocks back in 2011, America’s fiscal excess has rarely been an immediate pocketbook issue for its citizens. Fitch’s warning comes at a time when it is getting harder to ignore, though.
Ironically, it was the 2008-09 financial crisis and the emergency response to the Covid-19 pandemic that both accelerated that reckoning and also helped to delay the pain. In 2007, the Congressional Budget Office projected that federal debt held by the public would fall to about 22% of gross domestic product in a decade. In 2011 it was seen reaching about 76% by this fiscal year. It will soon exceed 100%.
But, because the Federal Reserve helped keep interest rates so unexpectedly low in the interim, even slashing its overnight borrowing rate to zero in 2020, taxpayers’ bill for financing debt accumulated in the past was modest. Net interest as a share of fiscal outlays was higher in the early 1990s. That is because the interest rate on the pile of outstanding debt is still a long way from what it was then.
But it is rising quickly as the Fed has raised rates to counter inflation that reached a four-decade high last year. The CBO predicts net interest will reach $745 billion in the 2024 fiscal year—about three quarters of all discretionary spending excluding defense.
That isn’t an immediate problem, but for what it is worth, the reaction in the bond market Wednesday morning to Fitch’s move was the opposite of what it was back in 2011—yields rose close to their highest of the year. A flood of short-term debt issuance to refill the Treasury’s coffers after the debt-ceiling standoff is another short-term strain.nting press. As rising rates push that financing need higher, though, the ability of the U.S. government to change the fiscal path without politically disastrous measures like cutting entitlements or by overtly printing money is becoming more limited.
If no such radical steps are taken then it almost certainly means paying more to borrow. That rising risk-free-rate will crowd out private investment and dent the value of stocks, all else being equal.
Even worse, losing that room for maneuver could also make responding to the next crisis, whether it is financial, health or military in nature, more than a matter of Uncle Sam whipping out his checkbook. For example, defending our allies against an attack by China, also a major owner of our debt, might require not just putting Americans’ lives in danger but a serious trade-off on the home front in the form of higher taxes, inflation, benefit cuts or some combination of those.
This sort of problem was described by policy analyst Michele Wucker in her 2016 book “The Gray Rhino,” which was an English-language bestseller in China. Unlike an out-of-the-blue crisis dubbed a “black swan,” a gray rhino is a very probable event with plenty of warnings and evidence that is ignored until it is too late.
“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.
Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.
A PetroChina petrol station is pictured in Beijing, China, March 21, 2016. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo/Editing by Germán & CoChina's oil and uranium business in Niger
In 2009, the Nigerien government secured a significant loan worth 650 million yuan ($90.93 million) from the Chinese state-owned Eximbank.
REUTERS By Andrew Hayley,/Editing by Germán & Co, July 31, 2023BEIJING, July 31 (Reuters) - China, Niger's second-largest foreign investor after former colonial power France, has in the past two decades ploughed billions of dollars into the landlocked West African nation, mainly for the exploration of oil and uranium.
Since last week's coup, in which military leaders detained Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum and established a military government, China says it is closely monitoring the situation, and urges parties in Niger to safeguard stability.
China's total foreign direct investment (FDI) into Niger stood at $2.68 billion as at the end of 2020, according to the U.S. Embassy in Niger.
OIL ASSETS
Niger became an oil producer in 2011 when the Agadem oilfield, a joint venture between the government and PetroChina (601857.SS), started production.
PetroChina entered a production sharing agreement in 2008 with the Nigerien government to develop the field, located some 1,600km (1,000 miles) east of the capital Niamey, with estimated reserves of 650 million barrels.
As part of the deal, PetroChina invested in the construction of the SORAZ refinery, located 460km away in the southern city of Zinder, near the border with Nigeria. PetroChina holds a 60% stake in the refinery, which has a capacity of 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) and mostly supplies the Nigerien domestic fuel market. The remaining share is held by the Nigerien government.
In September 2019, PetroChina entered into another agreement with the Nigerien government to lay a 2,000-km (1,200 miles) pipeline between the Agadem field and the Beninese port city of Cotonou.
The pipeline investment is twinned with a second phase of development of the Agadem field. Taken together, total investment into the pipeline and second phase development is expected to reach $4 billion, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.
The pipeline, the longest of its kind in Africa, is planned to mitigate the security and logistical challenges of exporting crude from the troubled area, and designed to carry 90,000 barrels per day, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.
The project was 63% complete as of February this year, according to a PetroChina statement.
PetroChina did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.
In May this year, state oil and gas major Sinopec (600028.SS) entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Nigerien government paving the way for further potential cooperation between Beijing and Niamey in oil and gas.
URANIUM MINE
In 2007, state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) (601985.SS) entered a joint venture with the Nigerien government to develop the Azelik uranium mine in the centre of the country.
CNNC owns 37.2% of the project, with a further 24.8% owned by Chinese investment entity ZXJOY Invest, according to a 2010 filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The Nigerien government received a 650 million yuan ($90.93 million) loan from Chinese state-owned Eximbank to support development of the project in 2009.
The mine has estimated total reserves of 11,227 metric tons, and annual production capacity of 700 tons, according to the filing. The project was halted in 2015 due to unfavourable market conditions.
Niger, which has Africa's highest-grade uranium ores, produced 2,020 metric tons of uranium in 2022, about 5% of world mining output, according to the World Nuclear Association.
CNNC did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image by Germán & CoWhy China is not as powerful as the West might think
Xi Jinping’s brand of economic policy is less and less convincing to Western companies. Politicians are waking up, too.
POLITICO EU BY STUART LAU AND PHELIM KINE, AUGUST 3, 2023President Xi Jinping wants to project China as a powerful trade partner — or dangerous adversary — to virtually any country hoping to be successful in the 21st century.
“The rise of the East, and the decline of the West” is his motto. As Chinese growth rocketed and Western politicians fretted over how to respond, it became a national catchphrase, too.
But among the Chinese people — and increasingly in the chancelleries and boardrooms of Europe — a different story is beginning to be told: Beijing’s march toward global economic domination may not be invincible after all.
China managed only weak GDP growth after belatedly liberating itself from pandemic restrictions. The property market is in crisis and youth unemployment has risen to hazardous levels, with one estimate putting it at 50 percent. Private entrepreneurs increasingly live in fear of what the state will do to their businesses and consumers have stopped spending the way they did in the pre-COVID good times.
In Shanghai, London and New York, Chinese and foreign businesses alike are now grappling with a new scenario: What if the slowdown is here to stay?
“The risks of a major economic crisis in China, or perhaps more probable an imminent stagnation in sustainable economic growth, are […] rising,” Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute For International Economics, told POLITICO.
What happens to China’s economy matters hugely for the world.
According to the latest statistics, the Chinese economy grew at a weak pace in the second quarter of this year, with GDP just 0.8 percent up in April-June from the previous quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Year-on-year, GDP expanded 6.3 percent in the second quarter — below the 7.3 percent forecast.
These numbers are still far healthier than most Western economies can boast.
But the uncertain outlook adds to doubts over how Beijing will approach the West. For now, the jury is still out on whether Xi will put on a friendlier face or if instead tougher economic times will embolden Communist Party hardliners to seek out flashpoints with the U.S. or Europe to distract public opinion and shore up nationalistic sentiment.
President Xi Jinping wants to project China as a powerful trade partner — or dangerous adversary — to virtually any country hoping to be successful in the 21st century | Pool photo by Leah Millis via AFP/Getty Images
Even the Communist Party leaders aren’t hiding their problem. At their annual pre-summer Politburo meeting, which sets the tone for the economic work for the remainder of the year, party officials judged that the economy “is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in the operation of some enterprises, many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and a grim and complex external environment,” state news agency Xinhua quoted the Politburo as saying.
Getting out
In Europe, as well as the U.S., governments are reassessing their own economic vulnerabilities radically. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocked EU governments into revising their dependence on supply chains controlled by potentially unfriendly regimes.
Europe mostly has decoupled itself from imports of Russian fossil fuels but remains reliant on China for critical raw materials that make up battery components that will be vital for the green energy transition, among other areas.
Western leaders from the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen to U.S. President Joe Biden now routinely talk about economic “de-risking” from China. The peril of linking too closely to the Chinese economy has even hit home with Olaf Scholz, traditionally seen as Europe’s leading dove on China policy.
Behind closed doors in the October summit of the European Council last year, Scholz shared his fears about China’s outlook. Speaking shortly before his first trip as German leader to Beijing, he told his EU counterparts that “a massive financial crisis” could be triggered if Beijing failed to manage its property crisis, according to two diplomats briefed on the conversation, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Italy’s new prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, is preparing to pull out of a deal under which Rome signed up to be part of Xi’s global infrastructure plan, the Belt and Road Initiative. And the government of Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has in recent weeks taken a more critical line toward Beijing, especially over its stance on Ukraine.
Against that backdrop, the Beijing government is now focused on engaging with the West in a less frosty manner, even when it comes to its arch-rival in Washington. Several U.S. officials — from Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen — have visited China in recent months, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is expected to go later this summer. An EU-China summit is also in the pipeline, according to one diplomat speaking anonymously because the plans are yet to be finalized.
Beijing is also keen to reassure private businesses in China, but it doesn’t seem to be working.
“What we saw was actually a decrease in the overall confidence level” among 570 EU companies operating in China who took part in a recent survey, according to Jens Eskelund, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. “And a lot of that has to do with an increased level of uncertainty where China is, in particular about the Chinese economy,” said Eskelund, whose chamber represents 1,700 mostly European companies and entities in China.
Xi consistently demonstrated a preference for the state-owned sector. His most radical moves against the private sector have been targeted at tech giants, even though they’re widely considered the best hope for China to compete with the West. On Xi’s watch, the Chinese bureaucracy has cracked down on multinational e-commerce platform Alibaba’s billionaire-founder Jack Ma, restricted the development of online gaming and private tutorial classes, and heavily regulated data even for foreign companies.
Some Western companies are already looking elsewhere. According to Eskelund, the EU chamber chief, 11 percent of businesses surveyed last year said they were weighing up whether to leave China. This year, the exact same share of companies reported they had already taken the decision to go.
“When you’re sitting in an economy that is growing 10 percent per year, it’s good for everyone,” Eskelund said. “If you’re slowing down to 5 percent, 5.5 percent, then there will be sectors of the economy that will not be growing the same way as before.”
Xi has accrued vast personal power at the apex of China’s political system. Whether Xi-conomics works in the end will depend to a large extent on him.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
The Plant Vogtle nuclear site in Georgia. (Arvin Temkar/Atlanta Journal-Constitution/AP)America is heavily reliant on Russia for nuclear fuel. Congress might change that.
WSJ Analysis by Maxine Joselow with research by Vanessa Montalbano, August 3, 2023Nearly a year-and-a-half after Russia launched a brutal invasion of Ukraine, Congress appears poised to reduce America’s reliance on Moscow for uranium, the main fuel used by nuclear power plants.
Lawmakers took swift action to ban Russian oil and gas imports a month after the February 2022 invasion. But stemming the flow of Russian uranium imports has taken much longer, in part because Moscow provides more than 20 percent of U.S. nuclear fuel.
Yet before leaving town last month, the Senate took a key step toward bolstering domestic uranium supply chains and displacing the Kremlin as a key supplier.
The Senate last week passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act, which includes an amendment aimed at boosting U.S. uranium production and enrichment. The amendment passed by a nearly unanimous vote of 96-3, suggesting it could be included in the final version of the Pentagon policy bill that could head to President Biden’s desk this year.
Leaders in the nuclear industry, which provides nearly one-fifth of U.S. electricity without any carbon emissions, cheered the proposal’s passage as a win-win for America’s national security and climate goals.
It was “a kumbaya moment,” said Daniel Poneman, president and CEO of the nuclear fuel supplier Centrus Energy and the former deputy secretary of energy under President Barack Obama.
Jeff Navin, director of external affairs at TerraPower, a Bill Gates-backed nuclear energy firm that has worked with Centrus, said the vote sent a strong statement. “You can’t get 96 senators to agree that the sun is going to come up tomorrow or the color blue exists,” he said.
TerraPower announced in December that an advanced nuclear reactor proposed for southwestern Wyoming would probably be delayed at least two years, given the difficulty of securing fuel from non-Russian sources. The amendment could address this delay and others like it.
Russia ranks as the biggest supplier of enriched uranium in the world. Its state-owned nuclear power conglomerate, Rosatom, has earned billions from U.S. and European customers, even as it works to supply the Russian arms industry with components, technology and raw materials for missile fuel.
The details
The amendment mirrors the Nuclear Fuel Security Act, which was introduced by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chair Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and James E. Risch (R-Idaho).
The bipartisan bill directs the Energy Department to establish a program aimed at ensuring a disruption in Russian uranium supplies would not harm the development of advanced nuclear reactors or the operation of the existing nuclear fleet.
The agency would need to acquire at least 20 metric tons per year of high-assay low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, from at least two U.S. nuclear energy firms by 2028. HALEU is needed to fuel advanced reactors such as small modular reactors.
“We spend nearly $1 billion each year on Russian uranium. Russia uses these revenues to fund its invasion of Ukraine,” Barrasso said on the Senate floor last week. “Here in America we have the resources to fuel our own reactors.”
The three lawmakers who voted against the amendment were Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Sanders has long opposed building new nuclear plants, given the lack of a federal plan for storing nuclear waste, while Markey has raised concerns about contamination from uranium mining on tribal lands.
The Senate approved another nuclear bill, the Advance Act, as an amendment to the NDAA by a vote of 86-11. The bipartisan measure would prohibit U.S. nuclear plants from receiving a license for enriched uranium from Russia or China if the Departments of Energy and State determine that the fuel poses a national security risk.
In the House
The House has not yet passed its version of the NDAA or approved the Nuclear Fuel Security Act as an amendment. But there appears to be some bipartisan support for doing so.
ower announced in December that an advanced nuclear reactor proposed for southwestern Wyoming would probably be delayed at least two years, given the difficulty of securing fuel from non-Russian sources. The amendment could address this delay and others like it.
Russia ranks as the biggest supplier of enriched uranium in the world. Its state-owned nuclear power conglomerate, Rosatom, has earned billions from U.S. and European customers, even as it works to supply the Russian arms industry with components, technology and raw materials for missile fuel.
In the states
New York, long a leader on climate policy, is set to miss a key clean-energy goal unless the state significantly accelerates its efforts, according to a report released this week by State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, Zack Budryk reports for the Hill.
In 2019, New York passed a landmark climate law that calls for reaching 70 percent renewable energy by 2030 and 100 percent by 2040. The report found that to meet the 2030 target, the state would need to add an additional 20 gigawatts of renewables over an eight-year period. For context, the state added 12.9 gigawatts of total generation, including both fossil fuel and renewable sources, over the past 20 years.
DiNapoli cited the length of the permitting process for new projects as a major obstacle, echoing the concerns of many lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Only about 3 percent of renewable generation contracted since 2015 has actually come online, which DiNapoli attributed to the length of the state Public Service Commission’s siting process, local opposition and delays in connecting to the grid.
The state will be able to achieve its 2030 goal if the projects currently under contract speedily pass through the permitting pipeline, but “this is a big ‘if,'” the report says.
News round-up, August 2, 2023
Quote of the day…
British director of ‘Napoleon’ compares French emperor to Hitler, Stalin
‘He’s got a lot of bad shit under his belt,’ filmmaker Ridley Scott says of the military leader.
In a recent interview, renowned British director Ridley Scott made controversial comparisons between Napoleon Bonaparte, the French military leader, and dictators Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin. Scott, widely acclaimed for his directorial work on films such as "Gladiator" and "Blade Runner," did not mince words when discussing Napoleon, stating that the former emperor had "a lot of bad shit under his belt."
POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, AUGUST 1, 2023 Most read…
Trump charged in probe of Jan. 6, efforts to overturn 2020 election
The indictment alleges four different crimes and describes six unnamed, uncharged co-conspirators
TWP BY DEVLIN BARRETT, SPENCER S. HSU, PERRY STEIN, JOSH DAWSEY, AND JACQUELINE ALEMANY, AUGUST 1, 2023 The U.S. Clean-Energy Company That Hit the Subsidies Jackpot
First Solar stands out among beneficiaries of Biden’s climate legislation, but lots of green energy companies are ‘trying to get on the gravy train’
TWJ BY PHRED DVORAK, JULY 31, 2023 Focus: For investors, green companies still hard to find with new emissions reporting rules
REUTERS BY SIMON JESSOP AND HUW JONES, AUGUST 2, 2023 British director of ‘Napoleon’ compares French emperor to Hitler, Stalin
‘He’s got a lot of bad shit under his belt,’ filmmaker Ridley Scott says of the military leader.
POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, AUGUST 1, 2023 China and Russia Are Beating the West in Africa
This week, leaders from 17 African countries will be guests of Vladimir Putin. Alongside Russia, all the major powers are vying for influence and raw materials on the continent. The conditions are increasingly dictated by the Africans themselves, with the West often coming away empty-handed.
SPIEGEL BY HEINER HOFFMANN, MAXIMILIAN POPP AND FRITZ SCHAAP, AUGUST 2, 2023 Source: TWP/Editing by Germán & CoQuote of the day…
British director of ‘Napoleon’ compares French emperor to Hitler, Stalin
‘He’s got a lot of bad shit under his belt,’ filmmaker Ridley Scott says of the military leader.
In a recent interview, renowned British director Ridley Scott made controversial comparisons between Napoleon Bonaparte, the French military leader, and dictators Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin. Scott, widely acclaimed for his directorial work on films such as "Gladiator" and "Blade Runner," did not mince words when discussing Napoleon, stating that the former emperor had "a lot of bad shit under his belt."
POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, AUGUST 1, 2023
Most read…
Trump charged in probe of Jan. 6, efforts to overturn 2020 election
The indictment alleges four different crimes and describes six unnamed, uncharged co-conspirators
TWP by Devlin Barrett, Spencer S. Hsu, Perry Stein, Josh Dawsey, and Jacqueline Alemany, August 1, 2023 The U.S. Clean-Energy Company That Hit the Subsidies Jackpot
First Solar stands out among beneficiaries of Biden’s climate legislation, but lots of green energy companies are ‘trying to get on the gravy train’
TWJ By Phred Dvorak, July 31, 2023 Focus: For investors, green companies still hard to find with new emissions reporting rules
REUTERS By Simon Jessop and Huw Jones, August 2, 2023The Race for Resources
British director of ‘Napoleon’ compares French emperor to Hitler, Stalin
‘He’s got a lot of bad shit under his belt,’ filmmaker Ridley Scott says of the military leader.
POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, AUGUST 1, 2023 China and Russia Are Beating the West in Africa
This week, leaders from 17 African countries will be guests of Vladimir Putin. Alongside Russia, all the major powers are vying for influence and raw materials on the continent. The conditions are increasingly dictated by the Africans themselves, with the West often coming away empty-handed.
Spiegel by Heiner Hoffmann, Maximilian Popp and Fritz Schaap, August 2, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Source: TWP/Editing by Germán & CoTrump charged in probe of Jan. 6, efforts to overturn 2020 election
The indictment alleges four different crimes and describes six unnamed, uncharged co-conspirators
TWP by Devlin Barrett, Spencer S. Hsu, Perry Stein, Josh Dawsey, and Jacqueline Alemany, August 1, 2023 A grand jury indicted former president Donald Trump on Tuesday for a raft of alleged crimes in his brazen efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s election victory — the latest legal and political aftershock stemming from the riot at the U.S. Capitol two and a half years ago.
The four-count, 45-page indictment accuses Trump, who is again running for president, of conspiring to defraud the United States, conspiring to obstruct an official proceeding, attempting to obstruct an official proceeding and conspiring against people’s civil right to have their vote counted. The maximum potential sentence on the most serious charge is 20 years in prison.
“The attack on our nation’s Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was an unprecedented assault on the seat of American democracy,” special counsel Jack Smith told reporters after the indictment was filed. “It was fueled by lies, lies by the defendant.”
Smith also praised the law enforcement officers who defended the Capitol, saying that they “did not just defend a building or the people sheltering in it. They put their lives on the line to defend who we are as a country and as a people.”
The charges represent the third indictment of the former president filed since March — setting the stage for one of the stranger presidential contests in history, in which a major-party front-runner may have to alternate between campaign stops and courtroom hearings over the next year and a half.
A federal grand jury in Miami indicted Trump last month on charges of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House and obstructing government efforts to get them back. A state grand jury in New York has charged him with falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments during the 2016 campaign. And a state grand jury in Georgia is weighing whether to charge Trump for his efforts to undo the 2020 election results there.
Trump, who has pleaded not guilty in the documents case, denies all wrongdoing related to the 2020 election as well. His spokesman, Steven Cheung, accused the Justice Department of trying to interfere with the 2024 election by targeting the GOP front-runner, and he compared the Biden administration to some of the worst authoritarian regimes in history.
“President Trump has always followed the law and the Constitution, with advice from many highly accomplished attorneys,” Cheung said in a statement that compared the Biden administration to Nazi Germany. “Three years ago we had strong borders, energy independence, no inflation, and a great economy. Today, we are a nation in decline. President Trump will not be deterred by disgraceful and unprecedented political targeting!”
Tuesday’s indictment paints Trump in late 2020 as a sore loser and an inveterate liar, willing to say almost anything to try to reverse his defeat at the hands of his Democratic rival.
“Despite having lost, the Defendant was determined to remain in power,” the indictment charges, accusing Trump of unleashing a blizzard of false claims about purported mass voter fraud and then trying to get state, local and federal officials to act to change the vote results.
“These claims were false, and the Defendant knew that they were false,” the indictment states. “In fact, the Defendant was notified repeatedly that his claims were untrue — often by the people on whom he relied for candid advice on important matters, and who were best positioned to know the facts — and he deliberately disregarded the truth.”
The former president was ordered to appear in federal court in Washington on Thursday. The case was assigned to U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan, a 2014 Obama appointee and a former D.C. public defender.
While Trump’s legal woes have grown exponentially in recent months, he has only solidified his early lead over the field of 2024 GOP presidential contenders. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), an ardent Trump supporter, issued a statement criticizing the Justice Department, claiming that the indictment was an effort to “attack the frontrunner for the Republican nomination” and distract the public from stories about President Biden while his son Hunter is trying to plead guilty to tax charges.
In broad strokes and specific scenes, the indictment recounts much of what was already known about Trump’s efforts to stay in the White House despite losing the election, actions that were the focus of extensive hearings last year by a House select committee investigating Jan. 6.
The indictment frames that conduct as a criminal conspiracy to demolish a bedrock function of American democracy: the peaceful transfer of political power.
No one else is charged alongside Trump, but the indictment describes six unnamed co-conspirators, who appear to be in significant legal jeopardy. Smith said the investigation was ongoing.
At the top of that list is Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor and former lawyer for Trump. He appears in the indictment only as Co-Conspirator 1, but his identity is clear from the document’s descriptions of that person’s actions.
Most of the other uncharged co-conspirators are identifiable based on details in the indictment and previous reporting by The Washington Post and other outlets. That reporting shows that Co-Conspirator 2, described in the indictment as “an attorney who devised and attempted to implement a strategy to leverage the Vice President’s ceremonial role overseeing the certification proceeding,” is John Eastman.
The indictment describes Co-Conspirator 3 as “an attorney whose unfounded claims of election fraud” Trump himself said sounded “crazy” — a description that matches Trump ally Sidney Powell. Co-Conspirator 4 is described as a then-Justice Department official who “attempted to use the Justice Department to open sham election crime investigations.” Other details of that person’s actions match Jeffrey Clark, whom Trump considered appointing as attorney general in the final days of his administration.
Co-Conspirator 5 is described in the indictment as a lawyer who tried to implement a plan “to submit fraudulent slates of presidential electors to obstruct the certification proceeding” — a reference that appears to match Kenneth Chesebro, a Trump attorney who worked on the scheme involving false presidential electors.
Eastman attorney Charles Burnham said in a statement that Eastman is not involved in any plea bargaining and would decline any such invitation, casting Trump’s indictment as an effort by the Biden administration to attack a political opponent and “cast ominous aspersions on his close advisors.” Attorneys for other uncharged co-conspirators did not respond to requests for comment Tuesday night. An attorney for Powell declined to comment, and a Giuliani spokesman questioned the basis for the allegations.
Robert Mintz, a former federal prosecutor now in private practice, said an unindicted co-conspirator is, by definition, someone prosecutors already believe has committed a crime.
“There are many reasons why prosecutors refer to unindicted co-conspirators, some of them evidentiary and some of them strategic, but it most often is used to send a strong message to a potential defendant who the prosecution wants to turn into a cooperating witness, but who is holding out,” said Mintz. “It is essentially like being in the on-deck circle for the superseding indictment in that prosecutors are no longer deciding if they can bring charges, but only if they want to.”
Tuesday’s indictment says Trump used private phone calls, memos and other meetings to pressure his vice president, Mike Pence, to help him overturn the election.
There were at least four calls before Jan. 6, the indictment says, including a call on Dec. 25, 2020, and one on New Year’s Day. On Christmas, Pence told Trump he did not have the “authority” to overturn the election. On Jan. 1, he repeated that to Trump, according to the indictment.
“You’re too honest,” Trump allegedly responded.
Pence rejected Trump again on Jan. 3, according to the indictment. The indictment says Pence and his team were also pressured by Eastman in the days leading up to Jan. 6. After that conversation, the indictment says, a Pence adviser told Trump that even Co-Conspirator 2 “had conceded that his plan was ‘not going to work.’”
The indictment also alleges that on the night of Jan. 6, after Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to try to prevent the formal certification of Biden’s victory, “the White House counsel called the Defendant to ask him to withdraw any objections and allow the certification. The Defendant refused.”
Trump for more than two weeks had publicly predicted that he would be indicted, announcing on social media on July 18 that his attorneys had been told he might be charged in the case. On Tuesday, the grand jury panel hearing evidence in the case gathered early at the D.C. courthouse, within sight of the U.S. Capitol. The jurors were seen leaving in the afternoon.
About 5 p.m., reporters in the courthouse saw a prosecutor with Smith’s office and the grand jury foreperson deliver the indictment to a magistrate judge.
U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila A. Upadhyaya accepted the grand jury return, saying, “I do have one indictment return before me, and I have reviewed the paperwork in connection with this indictment.”
A short time later, the document was available on the federal court computer system for all to see.
Smith was tapped in November to take charge of the Justice Department’s classified-documents probe and 2020 election investigation, after Trump launched his 2024 campaign and Attorney General Merrick Garland — a Biden appointee — concluded that an independent prosecutor should oversee the probes.
A state grand jury in Fulton County, Ga., is also considering whether to file broad charges against Trump and his lawyers, advocates and aides over their efforts to undo the 2020 election results. A decision is expected this month, although previous plans to announce a charging decision have been delayed. Michigan and Arizona are also investigating aspects of the efforts to block Biden’s victory in their states.
Trump is scheduled for trial in March on the New York state charges of falsifying business records, and a federal judge in Florida has scheduled the classified-documents trial to start in late May.
Smith vowed Tuesday to seek a speedy trial in Washington on the election conspiracy charges.
That investigation proceeded along multiple tracks in recent months, people familiar with the matter told The Washington Post, with prosecutors focused on ads and fundraising pitches claiming election fraud as well as plans for “fake electors” who could have swung the election to Trump.
Smith sought to navigate thorny issues of where the line should be drawn between political activity, legal advocacy and criminal conspiracy.
A key element of the investigation was determining to what degree Republican operatives, activists and elected officials — including Trump — understood that their claims of massive voter fraud were false at the time they were making them. The indictment is peppered with instances in which prosecutors try to show that Trump knew he was spewing lies, including times when the nation’s top intelligence officials and White House lawyers allegedly told Trump that there was no evidence of voting fraud or irregularities.
A spokesman for Giuliani suggested that prosecutors cannot prove that Trump knew he was lying when he claimed voter fraud.
“Every fact Mayor Rudy Giuliani possesses about this case establishes the good-faith basis President Donald Trump had for the actions he took during the two-month period charged in the indictment,” said the spokesman, Ted Goodman. He said the indictment “eviscerates the First Amendment and criminalizes the ruling regime’s number one political opponent for daring to ask questions about the 2020 election results.”
At a community event in Philadelphia on Tuesday evening, Garland briefly addressed reporters outside a police district headquarters. He did not discuss the specifics of the indictment but expressed confidence in how the investigation has been handled.
“Mr. Smith and his team are experienced, principled career agents and prosecutors” who “follow the facts and the law wherever they lead,” said Garland.
A First Solar plant in Walbridge, Ohio. The solar-panel maker expects to receive as much as $710 million this year from U.S. government subsidies./Editing by Germán & CoThe U.S. Clean-Energy Company That Hit the Subsidies Jackpot
First Solar stands out among beneficiaries of Biden’s climate legislation, but lots of green energy companies are ‘trying to get on the gravy train’
TWJ By Phred Dvorak, July 31, 2023 Of all the beneficiaries of the U.S.’s green-energy push, few have hit the jackpot like First Solar FSLR -2.28%decrease
The Arizona-based solar-panel manufacturer expects to receive as much as $710 million this year—nearly 90% of forecast operating profit—from subsidies the U.S. government rolled out a year ago to encourage domestic renewables production. One analyst estimates the incentives could be worth more than $10 billion for the company over the next decade.
First Solar expects to have as much as a 60% share of the U.S. market for large-scale solar installations this year, largely a result of government policies that are pushing clean-energy developers to buy more made-in-America components.
The company’s shares have more than doubled to $208.40 in Friday trade since the beginning of 2022, despite a string of earnings disappointments during that period. Since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act last August, First Solar has promised so far to plow more than $2.8 billion into new manufacturing and research facilities in the U.S., including a new factory announced on Thursday.
Some industry executives attribute the company’s good fortune to luck and sharp elbows as it pushed for policies that would give it an advantage against low-cost competitors from countries such as China, which controls more than 80% of the global supply chain for solar panels.
First Solar Chief Executive Mark Widmar credits persistence and smart strategy, saying the company has worked for years to build factories and a supply chain in the U.S. He says the current U.S. energy policy is helpful.
The Biden administration’s signature climate legislation could ultimately provide $1 trillion in support for clean-energy projects, largely through tax credits tied to benchmarks such as the amount of wind power generated or solar panels produced. So far, it has helped spur around $110 billion in announcements for factories and other facilities to make everything from wind turbines to battery components, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.
Most of those projects involve overseas clean-energy giants; many won’t be finished for years. First Solar is one of a handful of big U.S.-based manufacturers with sizable U.S. factories that are already eligible for the incentives.
First Solar photovoltaic panels lined up at the Desert Stateline Solar Facility in California. PHOTO: BING GUAN/BLOOMBERG NEWS
“Lots and lots of companies are trying to get on the gravy train—in the solar industry, in the battery industry, in lithium mining,” says Pavel Molchanov, a renewables analyst at Raymond James. But in terms of the amount of incentives it can reap now, “First Solar really stands out.”
Making solar panels, like a lot of other clean-energy components, is a commoditized, low-margin business where companies vie to drive down prices. For years, that meant factories fled to low-cost places such as China or Southeast Asia.
First Solar, which was founded in 1999, makes solar panels using a technology called thin-film, where layers of photovoltaic chemicals are spread onto glass in a process that is faster, cheaper and simpler than the procedure for common silicon-based panels. That technology helped the company compete with the big Chinese solar-panel makers and their suppliers.
First Solar also changed business models when needed, says Widmar, who joined the company in 2011 and has steered it through several slumps. The company built factories in cheaper locations such as Malaysia and Vietnam, where it hosted more than 80% of its manufacturing capacity as late as 2018.
At the same time, the company lobbied in the U.S. against cheap Asian imports, pushing to slap duties on solar components made by Chinese companies. Some in the industry say such policies have boosted solar costs in the U.S. and could slow the rollout of renewables.
Those protectionist measures combined with pandemic shipping bottlenecks to boost First Solar’s U.S. sales. The company is likely to provide more than half of the panels sold for large-scale solar installations in the U.S. this year, compared with around a third before the pandemic, Widmar estimates.
During the first three months of this year, as the U.S. government considered green tax-credit details, the company spent $270,000 on lobbying—nearly 80% of its entire 2022 spend, according to data collated on OpenSecrets.org.
First Solar’s lobbying efforts have primarily been aimed at securing a level playing field versus cheap Chinese manufacturers that get subsidized by their government, Widmar says. The U.S. needs to focus on goals beyond lowering panel costs, such as energy security, he says. “We believe that this should not be an environment of solar at any cost.”
Rules governing the tax credits are still being completed. First Solar says it should be able to qualify for a series of lucrative credits linked to its U.S. panel production. The credits could be worth $11 billion over the next decade, according to a report by Philip Shen, managing partner at boutique investment bank Roth Capital Partners. That is roughly equivalent to the last four years of sales.
First Solar hasn’t received any credits yet, but it is already counting future credits’ value on its books.
A key question is the definition of a U.S.-made solar panel for tax-credit purposes, which could unlock a lucrative incentive meant to spur renewables developers to buy more homemade equipment. Rules favoring First Solar could help boost the company’s sales further, because the company estimates 90% of the pieces that go into its newest panel are already made in America.
First Solar is trying to take advantage of its moment. The company is tapping into buyers’ demand for U.S.-made equipment by amending contracts to stipulate that its panels will be produced domestically, charging a premium for that feature. It is pushing customers hungry for panels to sign multiyear contracts, accumulating an order backlog the company estimates at more than $20 billion.
The company also is investing heavily in research into new solar technologies, and it is building new factories fast. First Solar expects to have more than 20 gigawatts of global manufacturing capacity by the end of 2025, four times what it had at the end of 2018 and one-and-a-half times the amount of large-scale solar the U.S. installed last year. Nearly half of that will be in the U.S.
“It’s a moment of opportunity,” Widmar says.
“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.
Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.
An exhaust pipe of a car is pictured on a street in a Berlin, Germany, February 22, 2018. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch/File Photo/Editing by Germán & CoFocus: For investors, green companies still hard to find with new emissions reporting rules
REUTERS By Simon Jessop and Huw Jones, August 2, 2023LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Is Ford (F.N) doing a better job of cutting emissions than rival Toyota (7203.T)? Is BP (BP.L) greener than Shell (SHEL.L)?
For investors looking to weed out climate laggards from portfolios, these are vital questions but existing guidelines on emissions reporting and new rules due to come in for the United States and Europe are unlikely to provide hard answers.
Most major Western companies use the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP) Corporate Standard for reporting emissions and the guidelines will form part of the framework for compulsory EU standards set to take effect next year.
The United States is on track to announce similar rules this year and the corporate standard, first launched in 2001 and revised in 2004, is also embedded in other international emissions reporting standards.
But the guidelines, which are overseen by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and World Resources Institute, define the three main categories of emissions companies should report broadly, leaving plenty of room for interpretation.
Half a dozen investors interviewed by Reuters said while the GHGP has been crucial in shining a light on corporate emissions, it can be hard to compare companies given the potential for differences in disclosures, and this will remain the case to some extent even with new mandatory norms.
"More companies are disclosing, but at what quality are they actually going to disclose?" said Vanessa Bingle, director at Alpha Financial Markets Consulting, which advises asset managers on sustainable investing.
LIFETIME EMISSIONS
Take the autos sector.
Although 20 of the top 30 automakers report emissions linked to their supply chains – known as Scope 3 under the protocol - analysis by research firm Signal Climate Analytics (SCA) seen by Reuters showed a range of approaches in how they disclose the data and for the assumptions underpinning their calculations.
For example, as of March 2023, only five carmakers have disclosed their assumptions for the average life of their vehicles and grams of carbon dioxide equivalent emitted per kilometre driven.
That makes comparisons problematic. An unrealistically low lifetime figure could make cars appear less polluting than they really are, SCA Executive Chairman David Lubin said.
In its 2021 public submission to CDP – a non-profit that runs the global disclosure system on environmental impacts for investors, companies and governments - Japanese carmaker Subaru (7270.T) said its cars run for 130,000 km (80,000 miles) over their lifetime. In 2022, it did not disclose a figure.
A search of the British version of second-hand car site AutoTrader on July 31 showed 988 Subarus for sale, of which 263, or a quarter, had done at least 80,000 miles.
Subaru told Reuters the 130,000 km figure referred to vehicles sold in Japan. For the EU, it used 162,500 km and for North America, where it books most of its sales, 228,800 km, information it has not previously made public.
A spokesperson said Subaru did not include a lifetime number in its 2022 disclosure because it wanted to avoid confusion with an incomplete description.
"We now believe it's better to disclose the lifetime distance assumptions by region in our next disclosure (2023)."
APPLES AND ORANGES
Experts said Scope 3 emissions were the hardest of the three areas to assess as companies have to rely on data from customers and suppliers for their calculations.
SCA's Lubin said Scope 3 data was quite limited in its usefulness without researching how firms come up with their numbers and how reasonable the assumptions underpinning their data are.
Nonetheless, many investors scrutinise carbon emissions data to gauge how polluting a company is, how it compares with rivals and how this might affect its bottom line and share price.
For Laura Kane, head of ESG research at Voya Investment Management, which is part of Voya Financial (VOYA.N) and oversees about $323 billion in assets, in many cases, it's like comparing apples to oranges.
Kane said her firm buys third-party data from ratings providers, which aim to normalise and score the data, making it more comparable across sectors, yet this brings its own challenges. She declined to name the providers.
"There is quite a bit of variation among providers ... due to inconsistent reporting from companies, as well as different estimation and aggregation methodologies."
Only big investors have deep enough pockets to pay for such data and employ teams to assess it, leaving smaller investors at a disadvantage, experts say.
PATCHWORK OF RULES
The EU has made carbon disclosures mandatory for about 50,000 companies operating in the bloc from next year while new U.S. rules should come this year as governments look to replace a patchwork of private sector norms with binding rules, making it easier to crack down on greenwashing or exaggerated climate-friendly claims by companies.
The International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), a standards-setter established by the IFRS Foundation that produces international accounting norms, has also approved rules any country can adopt. Some countries, including Britain, have said those guidelines will become mandatory.
Jimmy Jia, researcher at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, said as well as differences in defining what should be counted under existing GHGP guidelines, companies may use different calculation processes or present data in different ways.
"Investors need to understand if a difference is due to an operational difference, or because the entities applied different accounting methodologies," said Jia said, co-author of a study on emissions data comparability.
Another area of investor concern is how companies account for their own energy use, or Scope 2 emissions.
The GHGP allows companies to buy green energy to offset their emissions, using contractual instruments such as renewable energy certificates, and reflect this in their reporting.
But the protocol also allows different accounting methods - market-based or location-based - to be used when companies calculate Scope 2 numbers. The market-based approach, however, may not accurately reflect how used energy was generated, potentially resulting in investors concluding a company is less polluting than it is, some investors said.
"Market-based methods open up the door to creative accounting," British asset manager abrdn said in its response to a GHGP consultation that closed on March 14.
Of 8,400 companies to report data globally to CDP, 70% reported Scope 2 data, with 31% giving both market and location-based figures, 33% only a location-based number and 6% just market-based, CDP data shared with Reuters showed.
Reuters GraphicsCONSULTATION ON CHANGES
European and U.S. regulators and officials at the ISSB interviewed by Reuters acknowledge the criticisms of GHGP but argue that the new EU, U.S. and global standards are just the start of a journey to more accurate reporting.
Best-practice, pressure from markets, and peers, along with bespoke sector disclosures, will emerge over the next five years or so to improve accuracy, as will countries requiring disclosures to be independently audited, as they do for financial reports, regulators say.
A spokesperson for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission declined to comment.
Pedro Faria, environmental leader at EFRAG, the EU body that drafted the bloc's disclosure standards, said the priority was to make disclosures mandatory before improving the quality, and that they are just one piece of the puzzle.
"Ultimately, the thing that you need from (companies) is the big chunk of emissions and yes, there are methodological issues there, but also their investments, their transition plans, changes in strategy, and some of those aspects are even more important than precise carbon numbers," Faria said.
The GHGP's consultation on possible changes to its framework drew over 230 proposals, of which 150 were made public while the others requested privacy. Any changes would likely take effect from 2025, at the earliest, according to GHGP.
"All feedback shared during that process will be reviewed by GHG Protocol including its Technical Working Groups and will inform the scope and potential approaches to make updates to existing standards or development of additional guidance," said Pankaj Bhatia, director of GHG Protocol.
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British director Ridley Scott has said France’s first Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte is like Adolf Hitler | Hulton ArchiveBritish director of ‘Napoleon’ compares French emperor to Hitler, Stalin
‘He’s got a lot of bad shit under his belt,’ filmmaker Ridley Scott says of the military leader.
POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, AUGUST 1, 2023
France’s first Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte is like Adolf Hitler, British director Ridley Scott said ahead of the release of his biopic movie on the French military leader in the fall.
“I compare him with Alexander the Great. Adolf Hitler. Stalin,” Scott said in the upcoming September edition of the British monthly magazine Empire.
Napoleon — who reinstated slavery and whose military campaigns ranged from Spain to Russia and were responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths on the battlefield — has got “a lot of bad shit under his belt,” Scott said.
“At the same time, he was remarkable with his courage, and in his can-do and in his dominance. He was extraordinary,” Scott added.
After first rising to power following a coup in 1799, Corsica-born Napoleon Bonaparte led France through a series of bloody wars to briefly become a hegemonic power in continental Europe, until he was finally defeated by an alliance of European nations led by Britain in the 1815 Battle of Waterloo in Belgium.
The first French emperor then died in exile in Saint Helena, a small island in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, in 1821.
Focusing on the rise to power of the French military leader, Scott’s movie — the poster of which shows the emperor wearing a two-pointed hat — will come out in November and features Hollywood legend Joaquin Phoenix as Napoleon.
In his Empire interview, Scott said he first thought of Phoenix for the role while watching the actor’s Oscar-winning performance in “The Joker.”
“I’m staring at Joaquin and saying, ‘This little demon is Napoleon Bonaparte.’ He looks like him.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
SpiegelThe Race for Resources
China and Russia Are Beating the West in Africa
This week, leaders from 17 African countries will be guests of Vladimir Putin. Alongside Russia, all the major powers are vying for influence and raw materials on the continent. The conditions are increasingly dictated by the Africans themselves, with the West often coming away empty-handed.
Spiegel by Heiner Hoffmann, Maximilian Popp and Fritz Schaap, August 2, 2023African leaders don't often travel by train. But in mid-June, four heads of government from Africa boarded a train in Poland headed for Ukraine. In a group photo, the travelers look a bit lost in the imposing compartment, with only the leader of the mission, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, offering a contented smile.
The delegation traveling with Ramaphosa wanted to achieve what many large and middle powers had thus far failed to accomplish: to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. The Africans met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv and later with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
The African initiative didn't produce a breakthrough, but from the perspective of Ramaphosa and his colleagues from Senegal, Uganda and Congo, among others, it was a success, if only because of the images it produced. Their message: We Africans no longer just look on helplessly, we get involved. Heads of state from the global north used to come to Africa to mediate crises and conflicts, but now it's the other way around.
The trip is an example the continent's growing self-confidence and desire to decisively get rid of its reputation as a passive recipient of development aid.
Despite their claim to be pursuing "policy at eye level," Western nations are still searching for the right way of dealing with this emerging partner, and Africa often still isn't taken seriously.
But nearly all major powers are showing a huge interest in Africa, not just because of the war in Ukraine. The continent, once largely perceived as a trouble spot, is now increasingly seen as a strategic partner.
Moscow is sending Wagner mercenaries to, among other countries, Mali, where they are propping up the junta, to the dismay of former colonial power France. The European Union and the United States have launched a charm offensive on the continent to avoid losing more countries to Russia and China.
Raw materials from Africa – oil and gas, but also lithium and cobalt – are becoming increasingly important. Heads of state and companies from around the world are lining up in countries like Senegal, Congo and Namibia. China, Turkey and now Europe are trying to build up influence in Africa through infrastructure projects. Some are speaking of a new "scramble for Africa" – a reference to the colonial conquests in the 19th and 20th centuries and the bloc politics of the Cold War.
But one thing is different now, as the leaders' peace mission in Russia and Ukraine show – the African countries are now self-confident. They can choose their partners and are doing so. It matters who makes the best offer: Russia, China, the U.S., the EU – in many cases, it's less a question of ideology than of cost-benefit calculations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is aggressively courting the Africans. He is not expected to attend a meeting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – the so-called BRICS countries – in Johannesburg in late August. He is apparently concerned that the host could execute an arrest warrant against him from the International Criminal Court. But this Thursday, he will host representatives from around 50 African states, including 17 heads of the state and government, at a summit in St. Petersburg.
The Europeans don't seem to have found an answer yet to this shift, having for decades primarily seen Africa as a boogieman full of potential migrants. The new race for Africa is a global power shift – with an open outcome.
The ceiling tiles in Manono's community hall are rotten. There is a crack in the concrete floor. There is no electricity, so the organizers have set up a generator outside, which powers the speaker and microphone inside. But most participants at this event don't need microphones, they are voicing their concerns loudly. In Manono's "Grande Salle," in southeastern Congo, the issue at hand is global geopolitics. It is about who will have access to the metal of the future: "The Chinese" or "the ones from the West." The residents of Manono and the employees of the Australian mining company AVZ Minerals have gathered here. The company, which wants to mine lithium, set up the meeting.
Lithium is one of the most sought-after raw materials in the world, and experts believe that demand will far exceed supply. Lithium is used in battery production and is necessary for the transition to green energies. Geologists believe that the world's largest lithium deposit could lie under Manono, untapped. "Manono can play a significant role in meeting the world's demand for lithium," says Nigel Ferguson, the CEO of AVZ Minerals. Some believe that whoever controls Manono might have a say in the prices on the global markets.
"Chinese President Xi Jinping has issued the directive: Go out and get what you can."
AVZ CEO Nigel Ferguson
Africa is full of raw materials that the rest of the world depends on – lithium, cobalt but also gold and diamonds. The world' largest deposit of platinum is also on the continent. Ever since the revival of nuclear energy in many places, uranium is once again in demand, and eyes are turning especially to Namibia and Niger, which are home to large deposits. In short, the global north's industrial growth wouldn't be possible without Africa.
Colonial powers ruthlessly exploited the continent's resources and shipped them to Europe. After the countries' independence, this carried on: Countries from the north profited, leaving behind poverty and environmental damage, as well as a frequently corrupt elite. By contrast, China, which is increasingly investing in mines in Africa, and Russia, which exploits the raw materials in countries like the Central African Republic, are comparatively new to the game.
It remains the continent's paradox that resource-rich countries are often the poorest, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo. Decades of civil war, driven by greed for raw materials, have destabilized the country. These days, the fight for the raw materials is rarely fought with weapons but with more subtle methods, as Manono shows.
The residents of the small town could be living in wealth, but they aren't, and that's why they assembled in the community hall early this year to vent their anger. "Why hasn't anything happened?" one resident yells. "We want to work," another says.
Balthazar Tshiseke sits in front of the angry crowd in a white T-shirt and a white baseball cap. Thiseke heads Dathcom, a joint venture that was meant to have been extracting lithium from the ground for the past year. He gets his salary from AVZ minerals, the Australians who hold a majority stake in Dathcom. The attendees call him "directeur." He patiently listens to the tirades, occasionally nodding. His voice is firm as he says, "the government simply isn't giving us the mining license. We aren't allowed to mine anything yet."
The Australians found large amounts of lithium-rich rock in Manono in 2018. Because it's expensive to mine the metal, they teamed up with another company, in which the Chinese battery giant CATL has a stake. For $240 million, the Chinese were promised a 24-percent stake in the Dathcom joint lithium venture. "We would have loved to have worked with European or American companies, but unfortunately, they're afraid of investing in countries like Congo," says AVZ head Ferguson.
Europe and the U.S. are afraid of losing influence in Africa. But nobody wants to invest large amounts of money in an instable country. According to experts, most of Congo's raw materials exports go to China. "Chinese President Xi Jinping has issued the directive: Go out and get what you can. And now we're experiencing exactly that," says Ferguson.
In the meantime, another Chinese company has tried to obtain shares in Dathcom against AVZ's will. The Chinese might be benefiting from their close political connections in the capital city, Kinshasa. There are suspicions that the Congolese government is in part withholding the mining license to wear down the Australians.
The subject in the Grande Salle has now turned to major political issues. "It's about who is in charge here, the people from the West or the Chinese!" one participant says. "We don't want the Chinese!" others yell. Balthazar Thiseke nods approvingly. The event has been a success for him, with the residents of Manono coming together to support the Australian company. But it is only a small triumph, given that the government in Kinshasa has the upper hand. And there, Beijing is still a welcome partner.
It is now questionable whether AVZ will ever get a license for Manono. The Congolese mining minister did not answer a request for comment from DER SPIEGEL. For the people of Manono, the battle for the raw material of the future is leaving behind one thing above all else: frustration.
A wave washes water on board the wooden pirogue, flooding the floor. Moustapha Dieng calmly leans against a wooden plank. He's wearing a wool hat, his shaggy beard turning grey. In the village of Guet Ndar, they merely call him "father." He's the chairman of the Association of Traditional Fishermen in Senegal.
Dieng has fought many battles in his life – against storms and tides, against the trawlers from China. But his adversaries have never been as powerful as they are now. He has declared war against the world's biggest oil and gas companies. He pilots his pirogue toward a monster of steel and concrete weighing tons. At the end of the year, gas is to be extracted here, and a large part of the facilities are already in place.
A large deposit of the fossil fuel was discovered under the seabed in 2015 on the border between Senegal and Mauritania. Since then, the two countries have been working together to produce it and are hoping to derive billions in revenue. The natural gas is to be extracted for at least 30 years, with the profits shared by energy giants BP and Kosmos together with Senegalese and Mauritanian state-owned companies.
"Look how they're just waiting here!" the captain shouts, pointing first to the left at a ship of the Senegalese Coast Guard, and then to the right, toward the horizon, where a further ship of the Mauritanian Coast Guard is anchored. "If we keep going, they'll probably arrest us." Even though there is no buoy or markings, this is where the exclusion zone around the GTA gas platform begins, 500 meters in every direction. "It's exactly where we caught the most fish," Dieng says.
Thierno Seydou Ly is familiar with these complaints, he hears them on a regular basis. The general director of Petrosen, the state oil and gas company, speaks in an interview in a hotel in the capital of Dakar. It's important to him that his message is understood, so he expresses himself in a calm manner. "Gas is an enormous opportunity for our country," he says, "also because there is a huge need for new producers as a result of the war in Ukraine." Senegal is thus trying to fast track its way to becoming a gas nation. Processes that normally take years need to be completed in months. "At the moment, everyone is knocking on our door," says Ly.
A fossil-fuel boom has broken out in many African countries. In Uganda, the French company Total wants to extract oil in a nature preserve together with a Chinese state company. There are plans for a pipeline that can transport the oil through the Tanzanian Serengeti to the Indian Ocean. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, oil fields are being auctioned off to the highest bidders. Drilling is also taking place off the southern coast of Namibia, where several platforms are already installed in the water, even though the country is presenting itself as a trailblazer in the green energy revolution. Countries are taking what they can.
Many projects are still in the early stages, but hopes on the continent are high, as is the interest of oil and gas corporations from industrialized nations. In 2021, the African countries altogether produced 260 billion cubic meters of gas. According to the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries, that volume is expected to rise to as much as 585 billion cubic meters by 2050.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in Senegal last May. The visit was remarkable. The chancellor said that it makes sense to "intensively pursue" a partnership for gas extraction. Berlin is under pressure to find alternatives to Russian natural gas, and the West African nation is potentially prepared to help fill the void.
Senegal President Macky Sall and his cabinet currently have their pick of European partners: France, Portugal, Poland, Italy – all are currently vying for his country's natural gas, even though it's not even ready for production.
This despite the fact that, as recently as last year, European governments called for a shift to renewable energies on the African continent. Sall was always against it, anyway. At the UN General Assembly, Senegal's president said: "The continent that is contributing the least to pollution and is the furthest behind in industrialization should extract its natural resources." After all, he said, Europe had done this decades ago, and now, despite their past warnings, the Europeans want to immediately extract Senegalese gas. Necessity, it turns out, is preventing the transition to green energy.
Petrosen head Ly looks out over the Atlantic from the chic Terrou-Bi Hotel in Dakar. He doesn't accept the criticism from the Saint Louis fishermen. "The anger of the people affected is above all a communication problem," he claims. "The site where the gas platform is located wasn't even a fishing ground."
But the discontent in Senegal is widespread, and it's not just coming from Moustapha Dieng and his fellow fishermen. The GTA project had been overshadowed by claims of corruption from the start. There is great concern in the country that only the elite will profit from the windfall of resources. Greenpeace has warned of an incalculable risk for the ecosystem given that important protected marine areas are located near the gas facilities.
Senegal's government isn't letting itself be fazed. Elections are scheduled for 2024, the country is grappling with debt and the rising cost of living is becoming a problem. Against that backdrop, the new government revenues are coming at a convenient time. "We're certainly not going to become Qatar or the Emirates, but gas and oil could be huge drivers of Senegal's development," says Ty.
Germany and France have just signed an agreement to develop renewable energies together with Senegal. More than 2 billion euros are at stake, with fossil fuels to be gradually replaced by solar energy, among other sources. Gas is described as a transitional technology in the agreement, but the Green Party has ensured that no German tax money is to flow into its extraction. This restraint has its price: The West could now have to wait at the back of the line. Africa isn't waiting for Europe – the Africans moved on years ago.
A few months before his biggest victory thus far, the lawyer and activist Drissa Meminta steps up to a lectern in a courtyard in Bamako, the capital of Mali. He's wearing a dark-blue suit with a breast pocket handkerchief. Around him, in a semi-circle, his fellow members of the anti-colonial, pro-Russian Yerewolo movement have gathered for an internal meeting. A banner displays their goal in the national colors: "The liberation of Mali."
Meminta recalls what his movement has achieved so far. It helped bring the military junta to power in 2021, which helped spur the withdrawal of the French military one year later. Now, he wants the United Nations peacekeepers to leave the country as well. "It has to be the aspiration of every country to take its fate into its own hands," says Meminta.
As it turns out, the UN declared a short time later that their MINUSMA peace mission would come to an end this year.
The decision represents a turning point for the relationship between Mali and the international community. In 2013, France began sending soldiers to help the government in Bamako fight against Islamist terror. In the context of the BARKHANE antiterrorism operation, they stationed up to 5,100 soldiers in the Sahel region. The international community established MINUSMA in 2013, with a mandate for 12,600 blue-helmet soldiers, including some from Germany.
Nevertheless, the stabilization of Mali proved impossible. Ever larger parts of the country fell under the de facto control of the jihadists. Elements of the military carried out a coup against the government in 2020 and 2021.
What is happening in Mali is tantamount to a changing of the guard: The Europeans are leaving; with the Russians arriving in their place. Up to 1,600 mercenaries belonging to the Wagner Group are already stationed in Mali, and their influence is growing.
Yerewolo leader Meminta has welcomed the development. European diplomats, meanwhile, are convinced that his movement is being financed with money from Russia. "Anyone can come here and do business, so long as they respect the sovereignty, independence and interests of our country," he says.
"We want to completely wipe out our opponents. We don't want prisoners. We want it as brutal as possible."
An adviser to the Central African president
Long before the Wagner militia, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, waged war in Ukraine, it served as an instrument with which the Kremlin could expand its influence in Africa. Wagner mercenaries are supporting the warlord Khalifa Haftar in Libya. In Sudan, they run gold mines together with the warlord Hemeti. The Wagner network is active in at least a dozen African countries. No other state has as many bilateral agreements with governments on the continent as Russia. And no other country sells more weapons to sub-Saharan Africa.
The Russian government recently announced plans to compensate African countries for the loss of Ukrainian wheat – a loss caused, admittedly, by Russia's decision to opt out of the existing agreement. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin repeated the promise shortly before the Africa Summit in St. Petersburg this week.
Moscow is spreading the propaganda that it is the former colonial powers, like France, who are exploiting the continent, while the Russians themselves are aiming for a more equal partnership.
In fact, European diplomats in Bamako say that EU contracts in the country were steered toward French companies. They also claim that France, in turn, supplied the Malian armed forces with inadequate materiel and that civilians have repeatedly died as a result of attacks by the French military in the country. Little, if anything, has been done to address those mistakes.
There is no debate that Russia is itself carrying out an imperial war of aggression in Ukraine and, for the most part, nefariously pursuing its interests in Africa.
In the Central African Republic, for instance, the Wagner mercenaries have succeeded in infiltrating part of the state following the French retreat. Experts speak of a "state capture." They reportedly looted raw materials like gold and timber. The Sentry, an investigative website, has accused the Wagner Group of committing war crimes. Wagner mercenaries allegedly wiped out villages, raped, tortured and killed their inhabitants. An adviser to the Central African president openly explains why the government is working with Wagner. "We want to completely wipe out our opponents," he says. "We don't want prisoners. We want it as brutal as possible."
For many African despots, the Wagner mercenaries, whose "engagement" in Africa continues regardless of their boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny, are a convenient partner. They help them face down political opponents and insurgents and they receive access to raw materials in return. Unlike the Europeans, they don’t ask questions about democracy or human rights.
For Wagner, on the other hand, the commitment in Africa is above all a PR victory, says Samuel Ramani of RUSI, a British think tank. "They're very good at promoting autocracies and promoting Russia as a brand on the continent," he says. "They aren’t all that successful in the war on terror."
In Dar es Salaam, Tanzania’s seat of government, the past and the future are never far apart. There’s the old train station, built by the Germans when the region was their colony, with its battered red roof shingles. Next to it, a modern glass building rises into the sky, the new train station built by a Turkish company.
Masanja Kadogosa is standing on the platform, which is still empty, and looking contentedly into the distance. "Moving traffic from road to rail will improve people’s lives in Tanzania," he says.
As the director of Tanzania Railways, Kadogosa is overseeing what is currently one of Africa's largest infrastructure projects. The Tanzania Standard Gauge Railway, or SGR, will connect Tanzania with Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi and Congo. Ten billion dollars have been earmarked for investment in the project. The route will be built by Turkish and Chinese companies. The Tanzanian clients have changed partners several times to get a better deal. "It’s our choice who we work with," says Kadagosa. "We know exactly what we want. And that has also made us more picky."
The SGR is a symbol of the new balance of power on the continent. Just over three decades ago, more than eight out of 10 construction contracts in Africa went to American or European firms. Ten years ago, it was still around one out of three, but by 2020, it will only be around one in 10. Chinese companies now implement one-third of all infrastructure projects.
The Turks are also gaining a foothold in Africa. Since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan took office as prime minister in 2003, the volume of trade between Turkey and African countries has increased more than a sixfold to $34.5 billion in 2021. The number of embassies has almost quadrupled to 44 in the same period.
Whether it's the Turks in Tanzania, the Russians in Mali or the Chinese in the Democratic Republic of Congo, African countries are reorienting themselves. One reason is that, for years, the West wasn’t very interested in Africa politically. The U.S. has cut development programs and withdrawn troops. Former President Donald Trump left the State Department's Africa envoy position vacant for nearly a year and a half. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Africa envoy, meanwhile, faced accusations of racism.
During those years, the Chinese pulled past Western countries to take the lead in Africa. From 2000 to 2020, Chinese financiers lent $160 billion to African governments, two-thirds of which flowed into infrastructure projects. In recent years, Beijing has relied more on direct investment and trade than lending.
But Russia's war against Ukraine, the systemic competition between China and the U.S. and the increased demand for raw materials as countries transition to clean energies is all leading to a rethink in the West. Africa is suddenly perceived as a "geopolitical marketplace," as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell recently put it.
With its $150 billion Africa-Europe Global Gateway Investment Package, much of which will go into infrastructure, the EU wants to create an alternative to the Chinese Silk Road. Roads, ports and power lines, internet cables and solar parks are planned to drive the economies of developing and emerging countries – and at the same time help Europe gain new influence. The U.S. has also announced plans to provide $200 billion in grants, financial assistance and investment to developing countries over the next five years.
Fonteh Akum of the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa doubts that this alone will be enough to make up for the ground the Europeans have lost to other players. He says they will have to convince Africans that they are interested in an equal partnership and not just in outdoing their competitors.
News Round-up, August 1, 2023
We need a recession to bring down inflation', says former Bank of England chief
The recession is around the corner?
On Thursday, 27th July, the Wall Street Journal reported that low-interest rates in the US are crucial in supporting consumer spending. Consumers have maintained their spending habits, with many Americans securing low rates on mortgages, car loans, and other debts before the Federal Reserve began raising rates. This is because most household debt consists of fixed-rate loans, meaning that interest payments do not increase as the Federal Reserve raises its federal funds rate. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, has emphasized that this is a significant factor enabling consumers to continue spending despite the rate hikes. Simultaneously, in Frankfurt, Germany, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), made an important announcement regarding the economic situation in the Eurozone. Lagarde acknowledged the complexity of the current landscape and revealed that the ECB's Governing Council has decided to raise the three primary interest rates by 25 basis points later this year. While Lagarde expressed confidence in the decision, she also raised concerns about ongoing challenges, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its potential impact on the energy industry. These factors will undoubtedly impact the Eurozone's economic stability and require careful monitoring in the coming months. In addition to these developments, today, the former chief of the Bank of England, Alex Brazier, has put forth an intriguing perspective. Brazier believes that a recession is necessary to decrease inflation in the UK. Despite the economy performing better than expected and experiencing accelerated growth rates, this performance is only considered sustainable in the short term.
Most read…
We need a recession to bring down inflation', says former Bank of England chief - latest updates
The Bank of England will need to force Britain into recession to bring inflation back down to its 2pc target, a former member of its financial policy committee has warned.
THE TELEGRPAH, UPDATED 8 MINUTES AGO BP’s £2bn profits cause anger amid climate crisis
Oil and gas company to return another $1.5bn to investors through a share buyback
THE GUARDIAN BY JILLIAN AMBROSE AND ROB DAVIES, AUGUST 1, 2023 Germany's bailed-out Uniper plans billions in green investments
In recent years, Uniper faced a significant challenge when it had to replace the missing Russian gas volumes, especially during times of high demand. This situation often led to a surge in spot market prices, exposing the company to substantial financial risk.
Reuters by Vera Eckert and Rachel More, editing by Germán & Co, August 1, 2023 Why More House Republicans Are Flirting With Impeaching Biden
*There has been a surge in support for Trump among the MAGA base due to the Republicans investigating Biden's family and presidency. With each new indictment, Trump's popularity has increased, making him one of the leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.
*BY GERMÁN & CO
TIME BY ERIC CORTELLESSA, JULY 31, 2023 Why Did Economic Forecasters Get Their Recession Call Wrong?
Not only has the economy outperformed predictions but it’s growing at a faster rate than experts think is sustainable in the long run.
THE NEW YORKERS BY JOHN CASSIDY, JULY 28, 2023 Image by Germán & CoWe need a recession to bring down inflation', says former Bank of England chief
The recession is around the corner?
On Thursday, 27th July, the Wall Street Journal reported that low-interest rates in the US are crucial in supporting consumer spending. Consumers have maintained their spending habits, with many Americans securing low rates on mortgages, car loans, and other debts before the Federal Reserve began raising rates. This is because most household debt consists of fixed-rate loans, meaning that interest payments do not increase as the Federal Reserve raises its federal funds rate. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, has emphasized that this is a significant factor enabling consumers to continue spending despite the rate hikes. Simultaneously, in Frankfurt, Germany, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), made an important announcement regarding the economic situation in the Eurozone. Lagarde acknowledged the complexity of the current landscape and revealed that the ECB's Governing Council has decided to raise the three primary interest rates by 25 basis points later this year. While Lagarde expressed confidence in the decision, she also raised concerns about ongoing challenges, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its potential impact on the energy industry. These factors will undoubtedly impact the Eurozone's economic stability and require careful monitoring in the coming months. In addition to these developments, today, the former chief of the Bank of England, Alex Brazier, has put forth an intriguing perspective. Brazier believes that a recession is necessary to decrease inflation in the UK. Despite the economy performing better than expected and experiencing accelerated growth rates, this performance is only considered sustainable in the short term.
Twitter "News Round-up" Blog Achieves Phenomenal Results…
Yesterday, the "News Round-up" achieved a remarkable milestone by breaking previous records for impressions. The blog's tweets received a total of 1,394 impressions, marking a significant increase compared to the respectable 1,147 impressions received on June 6th. The significant increase in impressions of the "News Round-up" is a clear testament to its expanding audience and strong engagement. What makes this achievement even more remarkable is that it was accomplished organically, without any external promotion or boosting.
Most read…
We need a recession to bring down inflation', says former Bank of England chief - latest updates
The Bank of England will need to force Britain into recession to bring inflation back down to its 2pc target, a former member of its financial policy committee has warned.
The telegrpah, Updated 8 minutes agoBP’s £2bn profits cause anger amid climate crisis
Oil and gas company to return another $1.5bn to investors through a share buyback
The Guardian by Jillian Ambrose and Rob Davies, August 1, 2023Germany's bailed-out Uniper plans billions in green investments
In recent years, Uniper faced a significant challenge when it had to replace the missing Russian gas volumes, especially during times of high demand. This situation often led to a surge in spot market prices, exposing the company to substantial financial risk.
Reuters by Vera Eckert and Rachel More, editing by Germán & Co, August 1, 2023
Why More House Republicans Are Flirting With Impeaching Biden
*There has been a surge in support for Trump among the MAGA base due to the Republicans investigating Biden's family and presidency. With each new indictment, Trump's popularity has increased, making him one of the leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.
*By Germán & CoTIME by ERIC CORTELLESSA, JULY 31, 2023Why Did Economic Forecasters Get Their Recession Call Wrong?
Not only has the economy outperformed predictions but it’s growing at a faster rate than experts think is sustainable in the long run.
The New Yorkers by John Cassidy, July 28, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
The Bank of England will need to push the economy into recession to bring down inflation, according to Alex Brazier CREDIT: REUTERS/Hollie AdamsWe need a recession to bring down inflation', says former Bank of England chief - latest updates
The Bank of England will need to force Britain into recession to bring inflation back down to its 2pc target, a former member of its financial policy committee has warned.
The telegrpah, Updated 8 minutes ago*Alex Brazier, now deputy head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, acknowledged that the Bank has already hit the brakes on the economy “pretty hard” having raised interest rates for 13 consecutive meetings.
However, if inflation is to fall, interest rates will need to rise further from their present level of 5pc, he said, which will bring in “weak growth and higher unemployment.”
Official figures showed inflation in the UK fell to 7.9pc in June, which was down from 8.7pc in May but still nearly four times the Bank of England’s target, which it is not forecast to meet until early 2025.
Mr Brazier told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Inflation has now become entrenched and so, to be honest, getting inflation to 2pc - the Banks target - probably does entail a further growth slowdown or recession and higher unemployment.
“The trick for the bank is to do that in as moderate a way as possible.”
Mr Brazier, who left the Bank of England in 2021, predicted the peak for interest rates will be “probably below 6pc”.
*Alex Brazier is an expert in policy, strategic planning, management, and governance. He has played a crucial role in implementing post-crisis reform and providing guidance in micro-prudential supervision. He's proficient in economic analysis and has supported the Governor on monetary policy matters.
“AES El Salvador Team Awarded the “Golden Hard Hat” Award 2022.
Bernerd Da Santos, First AES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean EnergyAES Executive Vice President - President Global Renewable and AES Clean Energy“The AES El Salvador team has been awarded the 2022 "Golden Hard Hat" Award, a highly prestigious accolade that recognizes their unwavering commitment to safety. This award, presented by AES Corporation, highlights the team's exceptional dedication to making safety a priority. The team demonstrated professionalism and dedication by working 8 million hours, conducting 30,000 inspections, and dedicating 45,000 hours to technical and environmental training to ensure safety standards. However, the most important thing to note here is that the AES El Salvador team achieved a remarkable feat without any fatalities, demonstrating their exceptional commitment.
I would like to congratulate the union's leader and management team of AES El Salvador: Abraham Bichara, Daniel Bernardez, Roberto Sandoval, John Davenport, and Wilfredo Flores. Their combined efforts have been instrumental in making this outstanding achievement possible.
Once again, my heartfelt congratulations to the AES El Salvador team for this well-deserved recognition. Their tireless efforts and unwavering commitment to safety are an inspiration to us all.
Image by German & CoBP’s £2bn profits cause anger amid climate crisis
Oil and gas company to return another $1.5bn to investors through a share buyback
The Guardian by Jillian Ambrose and Rob Davies, August 1, 2023BP has angered climate campaigners by reporting profits of $2.6bn (£2bn) for the second quarter of the year as the climate crisis triggers extreme heatwaves.
The company blamed falling oil and gas markets for the drop in profits from $8.5bn in the same period last year when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ignited a rise in global energy markets.
BP willincrease its shareholder dividends by 10% to $2.3bn, despite the fall in profits. It will also return a further $1.5bn to investors through a share buyback over the next three months.
The BP chief executive, Bernard Looney, said the payouts reflected the company’s confidence in its strategy and the outlook for its future cashflows.
BP’s profits have fuelled growing anger at fossil fuel companies among green groups, which have accused the oil companies of “obscene” profits at the expense of hard-pressed families and the environment.
Tommy Vickerstaff, a lead UK campaigner for 350.org, said: “We’re almost desensitised to BP’s profits at this point because the government has continuously failed to take action to redistribute them. But there is nothing normal or routine about BP’s profit margins or about the destructive heatwaves we’re seeing across Europe that BP is directly responsible for causing.”
Global Witness said BP’s multibillion-dollar shareholder payouts stand in contrast to the millions of households pushed into fuel poverty by the rise in global energy prices.
Jonathan Noronha-Gant, a senior campaigner at Global Witness, said: “This is what a broken energy system looks like – oil giants get richer because the rest of us get poorer. For BP the energy crisis has been a giant cash grab; for parents across the country it has been an impossible choice between feeding their children and paying their bills.”
In a recent report, the IPPR, a left-leaning thinktank, argued that share buybacks are a direct cash transfer away from hard-pressed households to already wealthy shareholders at the expense of the environment.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Plants hang from lights at a display of German energy firm Uniper during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/file/Editing by Germán & CoGermany's bailed-out Uniper plans billions in green investments
In recent years, Uniper faced a significant challenge when it had to replace the missing Russian gas volumes, especially during times of high demand. This situation often led to a surge in spot market prices, exposing the company to substantial financial risk.
Reuters by Vera Eckert and Rachel More, editing by Germán & Co, August 1, 2023
DUESSELDORF, Aug 1 (Reuters) - German utility Uniper (UN01.DE) mapped out plans to diversify its portfolio on Tuesday with billions of euros in green investments, hailing record earnings in the first half of 2023 as a turnaround following its bailout just a year earlier.
"Uniper is back on track," said new CEO Michael Lewis, who was installed to steer the company, once Germany's biggest importer of Russian gas, out of the crisis triggered by an end in deliveries from Russia's Gazprom GAZP.MM.
He presented plans to invest 8 billion euros ($8.79 billion) through 2030 on a green transformation, triple the company's average annual investments of the past three years.
Uniper's turnaround was largely driven by the company hedging its gas supply commitments for the years 2023 and 2024 at lower prices, after being forced to replace missing Russian volumes at surging prices on spot markets last year.
In May, the company, in which the German government owns a 99% stake, flagged a profit of more than 2 billion euros expected from hedging its gas supply commitments.
Expecting no further financial losses from procuring replacement gas volumes, Uniper said on Tuesday no further capital increases from the German state would be necessary.
Its credit line from the KfW state lender has been reduced ahead of schedule to 11.5 billion euros from 16.5 billion euros, the company said.
Uniper on Tuesday reiterated its 2023 outlook, which foresees operating earnings and net profit in a mid single-digit billion euro range, but warned that this result was largely based on exceptional circumstances.
PATH TO INDEPENDENCE
Asked by investors for a timeline on the German government's exit, CFO Jutta Doenges called for patience and pointed to the terms of the bailout, which requires Berlin to reduce its stake to no more than 25% plus one share by the end of 2028.
The German government has welcomed Uniper's strong half-year performance, which saw adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of 3.7 billion euros, after a 757-million-euro loss a year earlier.
The government plans to present an exit plan by the end of this year.
"We're confident that we're doing our part of the necessary steps to bring Uniper back to the market," Lewis said, painting the green investment plan as a chance to diversify the utility's portfolio to shield it against future volatility.
The new strategy includes targeted growth in solar and wind farms, with 80% of Uniper's installed generating capacity to be zero-carbon by 2030, the company said, adding it would end coal-fired power generation by 2029 at the latest.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoWhy More House Republicans Are Flirting With Impeaching Biden
*There has been a surge in support for Trump among the MAGA base due to the Republicans investigating Biden's family and presidency. With each new indictment, Trump's popularity has increased, making him one of the leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.
*By Germán & CoTIME by ERIC CORTELLESSA, JULY 31, 2023Speaker Kevin McCarthy has long resisted calls from the hard right to impeach President Joe Biden, citing the lack of evidence of any crimes committed by Biden during Congressional investigations. McCarthy initially expressed concerns that using impeachment for political purposes would not be beneficial. However, McCarthy recently changed his stance under pressure from the MAGA flank, new revelations about Hunter Biden, and the influence of Donald Trump.
The California Republican didn’t quite call to impeach Biden, but he escalated that prospect by floating an impeachment inquiry into the President over unproven claims of financial misconduct. “What an impeachment inquiry does, when you vote on the floor, is it gives you the apex of power of Congress,” McCarthy told reporters on Thursday.
The proceedings, which would be the first step before bringing articles of impeachment, could be as fast or as slow as the House GOP would like—meaning it could stretch well into the 2024 campaign season. While the effort is destined to go nowhere in the Democratic-controlled Senate, it’s a sign that the coming election will be fought beyond the conventional venues of the campaign trail. It will play out in courthouses throughout the country, where former President Donald Trump will defend himself against multiple criminal prosecutions, and the halls of Congress, where Republicans hope to put Biden on trial simultaneously.
That, say Democrats, and some Republicans in private, is the point. Trump and his supporters, they insist, want an answer to the courtroom dramas he will face with the election in full swing, and an impeachment proceeding on the House floor fits the bill. “It's all about protecting Trump and stirring up the waters and blurring the differences between Trump and Biden,” says Jim Manley, a former aide to the late Democratic Senators Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy.
Republicans argue that McCarthy’s evolution on impeachment was triggered by a set of recent discoveries: two IRS whistleblowers who allege the Department of Justice gave Hunter Biden a sweetheart deal, which subsequently collapsed when it came before a federal judge; news that a Democratic donor who bought an expensive painting from the younger Biden also received a cushy posting from the President; and closed-door testimony expected on Monday from Hunter Biden’s long-time friend Devon Archer, who GOP lawmakers say will corroborate claims that Biden, as vice president, participated in his son’s business dealings. “The evidence and stuff that's come out is what is causing him to change his tune,” a senior Republican House staffer familiar with the matter tells TIME.
Since Republicans took over the House last January, they have conducted myriad probes into Biden’s family and presidency. The confluence of investigations and allegations have created a groundswell among the MAGA base that Biden should face retribution. That hunger has only grown as Trump—who wants to see Biden impeached—has soared in the polls following each indictment, making him the clear frontrunner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
Now, some of his fiercest allies in Congress are pushing for Biden’s comeuppance. “It must happen,” Republican Rep. Cory Mills of Florida tells TIME. “He’s the most corrupt President in our nation’s history. It’s absolutely warranted.” Rep. Elise Stefanik, the House GOP Conference Chair, told Fox Business on Thursday that she would “absolutely” support an impeachment, saying she’s “in conversations with Speaker McCarthy and all of our members” about it.
The push comes against a backdrop of Trump’s mounting legal woes. He’s facing criminal charges in New York for allegedly falsifying business records to conceal hush-money payments to a porn star. At the same time, he’s under federal indictment for allegedly hoarding national-security secrets and blocking the government’s efforts to reclaim them. Special Counsel Jack Smith added new counts against Trump in the Mar-a-Lago documents case on Thursday, alleging he deleted video evidence to obstruct the investigation. More prosecutions also appear to be in the offing. One is from a separate special counsel investigation by Smith into Trump’s role leading up to the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. The other is from Fulton County DA Fani Willis, who’s probing Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election in the state.
But one problem McCarthy faces on the Hill is that he doesn’t have buy-in from his entire conference. “I don't think it’s responsible to talk about impeachment, because we have these ongoing investigations that are gathering material,” Republican Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado tells TIME. “When they gather the material that indicates that there’s an impeachable offense then we should open an inquiry. But at this point in time, it’s premature.”
With Republicans having a slim 222-212 House majority, only a small number of defections could sink the effort. And Buck is not alone. Behind closed doors, some GOP Hill staffers and members worry that impeachment proceedings against Biden could boomerang against them in the next election.
Buck thinks McCarthy’s flirtation with impeachment is due to more than Trump’s grip over the party and Hunter Biden’s misadventures. Last week, Congress left for its August recess without passing crucial appropriations measures to fund the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration. When lawmakers return in September, they will need to pass 12 such bills to keep the government funded, or risk a government shutdown on October 1. “This has been done to distract from those appropriations bills and the lack of consensus on those appropriations bills,” he says.
But even if some Republican lawmakers are resistant to impeaching Biden, some Capitol Hill veterans suspect the wrath of Trump and his supporters could change their minds in the coming months. Says Manley: “The blowback from Trump and Trump supporters and the rest of the caucus will be brutal.”
A similar dynamic played out last month, when Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida forced a vote to censure Rep. Adam Schiff, the California Democrat who led Trump’s first impeachment and served on the Jan. 6 committee. The first attempt failed after 20 Republicans voted against it. But then, Luna and Trump mobilized a social media backlash. A week later, Luna forced another vote. This time, it was successful. Not a single Republican voted against the measure.
While Schiff became the 25th House member to face such a reprimand and will now be subject to a House Ethics investigation, the ordeal came with some upside for him. His Senate campaign raised $8.1 million afterwards.
It’s a reason why Democrats believe the GOP impeaching Biden could help the President’s reelection campaign. “Impeachment hearings would make for good television. They would make for spectacle,” a senior Democratic Hill staffer tells TIME. “But what we already know is that voters are tired of hyper partisanship.” Moreover, the official adds, Democrats would use the proceedings to try to emphasize a contrast between the parties: “Democrats are here to lower costs and build bridges. Republicans are here to perform political theater.”
Of course, Republicans have only a razor-thin House majority and remain blocked by Biden’s veto power. That leaves them with not much they can do beyond messaging. The question looming over the caucus is whether a Biden impeachment inquiry would amount to a political winner or an election-season misfire.
Democrats are betting it would be the latter. “This is playing into the political circus that helped them lose four years ago and underperform two years ago,” the Hill staffer says. “If you give them enough rope, they’ll hang themselves.”
Image by Germán & CoWhy Did Economic Forecasters Get Their Recession Call Wrong?
Not only has the economy outperformed predictions but it’s growing at a faster rate than experts think is sustainable in the long run.
The New Yorkers by John Cassidy, July 28, 2023Earlier this week, the Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence had reached the highest level in two years.Photograph by Angela Weiss / Getty
Last October, the Wall Street Journal published a survey of more than sixty economic forecasters from universities, businesses, and Wall Street. Citing the results of the survey, the Journal reported that the United States was “forecast to enter a recession in the coming 12 months as the Federal Reserve battles to bring down persistently high inflation, the economy contracts and employers cut jobs in response.” The story went on to say that the economists surveyed expected inflation-adjusted G.D.P. “to contract at a 0.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023 and shrink 0.1% in the second quarter.” The economists were also predicting that the unemployment rate, which was then 3.5 per cent, would rise to 4.3 per cent by June.
These forecasts turned out to be off—way off. On Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that G.D.P. rose at an annual rate of 2.4 per cent in the second quarter of this year, after growing at 2.0 per cent in the first quarter. Far from plunging into recession, the U.S. economy has grown at a faster rate than many experts think is sustainable in the long run. Employers have continued to create jobs at a healthy clip, and the unemployment rate has remained steady, climbing just one-tenth of a percentage point in the past nine months, to 3.6 per cent in June.
The latest from Washington and beyond, covering current events, the economy, and more, from our columnists and correspondents.
In the forecasters’ defense, they never said that a recession was certain. But they did say it was the most likely outcome, assigning it a probability of sixty-three per cent. And private-sector forecasters weren’t the only ones who got fooled by the economy’s resilience in the face of sharply higher interest rates: until recently, the staff economists at the Federal Reserve were also predicting a recession for this year. At a press conference on Wednesday, after the central bank raised the federal funds rate again, to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said that his staff has now changed its forecast to moderate growth for the rest of 2023.
It almost goes without saying that making economic forecasts is a difficult, and often thankless, task. Modern economies are extremely complex organisms. The aggregate outcomes they generate reflect many factors, including some external ones that are innately unpredictable, such as the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Since last October, though, there haven’t been any colossal surprises. Global supply chains have continued to recover from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine has continued, and the Fed has followed through on its pledge to keep raising rates until inflation is brought under control. Why, then, has the economy outperformed the forecasters’ predictions?
The proximate answer is that consumer spending and capital investments by businesses have held up stronger than expected. In the three months from April to June, personal consumption expenditures, which make up more than two-thirds of G.D.P., rose at an annual rate of 1.6 per cent, and gross private domestic investment rose at a rate of 5.7 per cent. Together, these increases accounted for nearly all of the quarterly rise in G.D.P. (The rest was largely due to higher spending by state and local governments.) But merely reciting these figures raises a deeper question: How have households and businesses been able to shrug off higher prices and higher interest rates, at least so far?
One reason is that prices are now rising less rapidly than wages (another development many economists failed to predict), which means workers’ purchasing power is rising, albeit slowly. Combined with healthy job growth, the sharp fall in the inflation rate—from 9.1 per cent in June, 2022, to three per cent this past month—has made many consumers feel better about things. Earlier this week, the Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence had reached the highest level in two years.
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal highlighted another element that is supporting consumer spending: many Americans were able to lock in low interest rates on mortgages, car loans, and other debts before the Fed started raising rates. According to Moody’s Analytics, nearly ninety per cent of household debt is fixed-rate debt, which means the interest payments attached to it don’t increase as the Fed hikes the federal funds rate. “It’s one reason why consumers are hanging tough and the Fed’s rate hikes have taken less of a bite out of the economy,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told the Journal.
The final thing that many economists underestimated was the impact of the fiscal policies that the Biden Administration introduced during its first two years. The lingering effects of the 1.9-trillion-dollar American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 can still be seen in improved finances of households and local governments, which is supporting their spending. But the most striking example is the surge in business investment, particularly in manufacturing facilities, since the passage last year of the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided generous financial incentives for manufacturers of electric vehicles and other green technology, and the chips and Science Act, which provided similar incentives for manufacturers of semiconductors.
I’ve written about this surge before, and the new G.D.P. report confirms it. During the second quarter of this year, business investment in structures grew at an annual rate of 9.7 per cent, following an increase of 15.8 per cent in the first quarter. The entirety of this spending wasn’t carried out by manufacturers, but a good deal of it was. The White House Council of Economic Advisers pointed out that “about 0.4 percentage point of real Q2 GDP growth came from investment in private manufactured structures, the largest such contribution since 1981.” This is good news for the economy’s immediate prospects and for the longer-term energy transition, which is essential.
And the bad news? As a worrywart, I can always find things. The Fed could still tank the economy by keeping rates too high for too long. The renewed bubble in technology stocks, driven by optimism about A.I., could end in a stock-market crash. There could be another banking crisis, or something out of the blue, such as a conflict in the Middle East that creates another run-up in energy prices. I could also point to the sight of economic forecasters getting more optimistic, but that would be mean. For now, let’s just celebrate the fact that their predictions turned out to be wrong. ♦
News round-up, July 31, 2023
Thoughts of a day on Monday the 31st
Lagarde’s Eurozone “Crisis” Press Conference on July 27, Resembles “Lord of the Flies”
On Thursday, July 27th, Mrs Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, delivered a significant announcement from Frankfurt, Germany. Stepping onto the stage with her Vice-President, Luis de Guindos, Lagarde’s solemn countenance suggested the severity of the impending situation to be disclosed. Without delay, Lagarde tackled the complicated economic environment in the Eurozone. She disclosed that the Governing Council had resolved to raise the three primary ECB interest rates by 25 basis points once again this year.
Lagarde seemed concerned as she spoke confidently, without her usual French accent. She emphasized that challenges still needed to be addressed despite the ongoing difficulties. She brought up the Russian invasion of Ukraine ("Natural Gas War"), which has made the already unstable economic situation even more complex. This could have implications for the global energy industry, which we must closely monitor.
Lagarde’s discourse evoked vivid imagery reminiscent of the classic novel, “The Lord of the Flies,” writted by Nobel Prize-winning British author William Golding in 1954. The parallels between Golding’s literary masterpiece and the current geopolitical climate are striking. We find ourselves confronted with deep-rooted social divisions not limited solely to Europe. These divisions arise from conflicting religious ideologies, diverse political systems, and an innate human tendency towards avarice and ambition.
Most read…
Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds
The twice-indicted former president leads across nearly every category and region, as primary voters wave off concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy.
NYT BY ASHLEY WU, BY SHANE GOLDMACHER, JULY 31, 2023 Elon Musk’s Latest Mission: Rev Up the Electricity Industry
‘My biggest concern is that there’s insufficient urgency,’ the billionaire tells energy executives
TWSJ BY TIM HIGGINS, JULY 29, 2023 Sunrun CEO Mary Powell Loves Big Problems
The solar-power executive says the energy industry is facing a ‘consumer-led revolution’
WSJ by Emily Bobrow, July 28, 2023 UK will issue hundreds of new oil and gas licenses in North Sea
The British government said the plan is to secure energy reserves while still aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Le Monde with AFP, today at 9:15 am The climate law the EU (conveniently) forgot
Talks on the Energy Taxation Directive have stalled over fears of political backlash.
POLITICO EU BY VICTOR JACK AND ZIA WEISE, JULY 26, 2023 Image by mediaThoughts of a day on Monday the 31st
Lagarde’s Eurozone “Crisis” Press Conference on July 27, Resembles “Lord of the Flies”
On Thursday, July 27th, Mrs Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, delivered a significant announcement from Frankfurt, Germany. Stepping onto the stage with her Vice-President, Luis de Guindos, Lagarde’s solemn countenance suggested the severity of the impending situation to be disclosed. Without delay, Lagarde tackled the complicated economic environment in the Eurozone. She disclosed that the Governing Council had resolved to raise the three primary ECB interest rates by 25 basis points once again this year.
Lagarde seemed concerned as she spoke confidently, without her usual French accent. She emphasized that challenges still needed to be addressed despite the ongoing difficulties. She brought up the Russian invasion of Ukraine ("Natural Gas War"), which has made the already unstable economic situation even more complex. This could have implications for the global energy industry, which we must closely monitor.
Lagarde’s discourse evoked vivid imagery reminiscent of the classic novel, “The Lord of the Flies,” writted by Nobel Prize-winning British author William Golding in 1954. The parallels between Golding’s literary masterpiece and the current geopolitical climate are striking. We find ourselves confronted with deep-rooted social divisions not limited solely to Europe. These divisions arise from conflicting religious ideologies, diverse political systems, and an innate human tendency towards avarice and ambition.
Just as the characters in “The Lord of the Flies” grapple with their instincts and desires, the world faces similar struggles in navigating these societal divides. However, the consequences of these divisions extend beyond the realm of survival on a deserted island. Our interconnected global community demands unity and cooperation to overcome such challenges. Lagarde’s allusion to this profound connection between literature and the present situation reminds us of the underlying complexities plaguing our civilization.
Golding’s novel, set on a deserted island, is an allegory that highlights the flaws of human nature. It showcases how the moral order disintegrates, and chaos ensues when individuals are devoid of societal norms and structures. In the global environment, we observe the breakdown of international alliances, the emergence of populist movements and a decline in institutional trust. These divisions and conflicts have consequences not only in politics but also in the economy.
Lagarde discussed the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, emphasizing the impact on the energy sector and the vulnerability caused by the interdependence of economies. Similarly, William Golding’s novel, “The Lord of the Flies,” showcased his understanding of the future implications of geopolitical dynamics, evident even back in 1954. Reflecting on his experiences as a soldier during World War II, Golding concluded that all humans possess an innate capacity for evil. The aftermath of the war prompted the author to contemplate whether humanity could establish order in the wake of a nuclear conflict.
In “The Lord of the Flies,” written during the height of the “atomic age” marked by the post-WWII fear of nuclear attacks, the novel grapples with humanity’s anxieties. The onset of the Cold War and the nuclear arms race between the United States and Russia intensified these concerns, as people worldwide lived in constant dread of another catastrophic bombing resembling Oppenheimer’s project in Japan. Against this backdrop, the novel raises vital questions about human nature and its inclination toward self-destruction. It explores universal themes, considering the possibility of a moral movement emerging for the greater good. Can humans overcome their inherent self-destructive tendencies? This thought-provoking novel seeks answers to these pressing questions.
Now, what does Mrs. Lagarde tell us?
Inflation remains a concern despite decline
This is why we are committed to ensuring that inflation returns to our target of two percent in the medium term. As a result, the Governing Council has decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.
Eurozone's economic outlook worsens
”The economic outlook for the eurozone is deteriorating due to various factors such as weaker domestic demand, inflation, and tighter credit conditions. These issues are impacting consumer spending and manufacturing output. Additionally, inflation and tighter credit conditions are dampening consumer spending, which in turn is affecting manufacturing output and weak external demand. Housing and business investment are also deteriorating, while the services sector remains resilient. Consequently, the economy is expected to remain weak in the short term.
Withdrawal of support measures crucial
”As the energy crisis starts to fade, it is important for governments to withdraw related support measures in a timely and coordinated manner. This is critical in order to prevent medium-term inflationary pressures from escalating. Failure to do so would require a more aggressive monetary policy response.
Inflation figures for June
”The inflation rate for the month of June continued to decrease, reaching 5.5 percent compared to 6.1 percent in May. Energy prices experienced a significant drop of 5.6 percent year on year. However, although food price inflation slowed down, it still remained high at 11.6 percent. Excluding energy and food, inflation rose to 5.5 percent, with goods and services showing opposing trends.
Economic Growth and Inflation Outlook Remains Uncertain
”The global economic growth and inflation outlook are uncertain, with several downside risks. One major concern is Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine, which contributes to geopolitical tensions that could fragment global trade and impact the euro area economy, leading to slower growth. On the other hand, there are upside risks to inflation. Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative could lead to upward pressure on energy and food costs. Additionally, the climate crisis and adverse weather conditions may raise food prices beyond projections, contributing to higher inflation. Other factors like a rise in inflation expectations, higher wages or profit margins, and stronger transmission of monetary policy could also drive inflation higher over the medium term. Furthermore, there has been significant tightening in financial and monetary conditions recently, adding to the complexity of the economic landscape. In conclusion, both economic growth and inflation face uncertainty, with downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation.
Why have we found ourselves in this predicament?
The predictions made by William Golding in his book “The Lord of the Flies” in 1954 are of such magnitude that they must be examined. Lagarde's X-ray of the European economy is clear but a cause for concern. In this way, the deep political divisions within countries are a significant source of concern. However, the global geopolitical framework has undergone significant transformations in recent times, shifting from a bipolar structure to a much more interconnected and complex world. The current stage is distinguished by a state of multipolarity characterized by political and religious extremism, raising concerns about the potential disintegration of the global nation-state system. Aggression in imperialist crusades exacerbates the situation.
Plato, in his seminal work on political principles written over two millennia ago, outlined the art of statecraft. His principles, however, must still be considered in modern political decision-making. Plato believed that conflicting interests within society could be reconciled. It is critical to inquire as to why certain politicians do not comprehend the fundamental logic of this philosophy.
Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230727_episode65.en.htmlMost read…
Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds
The twice-indicted former president leads across nearly every category and region, as primary voters wave off concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy.
NYT By Ashley Wu, By Shane Goldmacher, July 31, 2023Elon Musk’s Latest Mission: Rev Up the Electricity Industry
‘My biggest concern is that there’s insufficient urgency,’ the billionaire tells energy executives
TWSJ by Tim Higgins, July 29, 2023 Sunrun CEO Mary Powell Loves Big Problems
The solar-power executive says the energy industry is facing a ‘consumer-led revolution’
WSJ by Emily Bobrow, July 28, 2023
UK will issue hundreds of new oil and gas licenses in North Sea
The British government said the plan is to secure energy reserves while still aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Le Monde with AFP, today at 9:15 am
The climate law the EU (conveniently) forgot
Talks on the Energy Taxation Directive have stalled over fears of political backlash.
POLITICO EU by VICTOR JACK AND ZIA WEISE, JULY 26, 2023 At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Source: NYT Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds
The twice-indicted former president leads across nearly every category and region, as primary voters wave off concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy.
NYT By Ashley Wu, By Shane Goldmacher, July 31, 2023Former President Donald J. Trump is dominating his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, leading his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate, according to the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign.
Mr. Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found, as Republican voters waved away concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy. He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, those who went to college and those who didn’t, and in cities, suburbs and rural areas.
The poll shows that some of Mr. DeSantis’s central campaign arguments — that he is more electable than Mr. Trump, and that he would govern more effectively — have so far failed to break through. Even Republicans motivated by the type of issues that have fueled Mr. DeSantis’s rise, such as fighting “radical woke ideology,” favored the former president.
Overall, Mr. Trump led Mr. DeSantis 54 percent to 17 percent. No other candidate topped 3 percent support in the poll.
Below those lopsided top-line figures were other ominous signs for Mr. DeSantis. He performed his weakest among some of the Republican Party’s biggest and most influential constituencies. He earned only 9 percent support among voters at least 65 years old and 13 percent of those without a college degree. Republicans who described themselves as “very conservative” favored Mr. Trump by a 50-point margin, 65 percent to 15 percent.
Still, no other serious Trump challenger has emerged besides Mr. DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence, the former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina each scored 3 percent support. Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur, each received support from just 2 percent of those polled.
Yet even if all those candidates disappeared and Mr. DeSantis got a hypothetical one-on-one race against Mr. Trump, he would still lose by a two-to-one margin, 62 percent to 31 percent, the poll found. That is a stark reminder that, for all the fretting among anti-Trump forces that the party would divide itself in a repeat of 2016, Mr. Trump is poised to trounce even a unified opposition.
The survey comes less than six months before the first 2024 primary contest and before a single debate. In an era of American politics defined by its volatility, Mr. Trump’s legal troubles — his trials threaten to overlap with primary season — pose an especially unpredictable wild card.
For now, though, Mr. Trump appears to match both the surly mood of the Republican electorate, 89 percent of whom see the nation as headed in the wrong direction, and Republicans’ desire to take the fight to the Democrats.
The 2024 G.O.P. Presidential Candidates
Donald Trump. The former president is running to retake the office he lost in 2020. Though somewhat diminished in influence within the Republican Party — and facing several legal investigations — he retains a large and committed base of supporters, and he could be aided in the primary by multiple challengers splitting a limited anti-Trump vote.
Ron DeSantis. The combative governor of Florida, whose official entry into the 2024 race was spoiled by a glitch-filled livestream over Twitter, has championed conservative causes and thrown a flurry of punches at America’s left. He provides Trump the most formidable Republican rival he has faced since the former president’s ascent in 2016.
Chris Christie. The former governor of New Jersey, who was eclipsed by Trump in the 2016 Republican primary, is making a second run for the White House, setting up a rematch with the former president. Christie has positioned himself as the G.O.P. hopeful who is most willing to attack Trump.
Mike Pence. The former vice president, who was once a stalwart supporter of Trump but split with him after the Jan. 6 attack, launched his campaign with a strong rebuke of his former boss. An evangelical Christian whose faith drives much of his politics, Pence has been notably outspoken about his support for a national abortion ban.
Tim Scott. The South Carolina senator, who is the first Black Republican from the South elected to the Senate since Reconstruction, has been one of his party’s most prominent voices on matters of race. He is campaigning on a message of positivity steeped in religiosity.
Nikki Haley. The former governor of South Carolina, who was a U.N. ambassador under Trump, has presented herself as a member of “a new generation of leadership” and emphasized her life experience as a daughter of Indian immigrants. She was long seen as a rising G.O.P. star, but her allure in the party has declined amid her on-again, off-again embrace of Trump.
Vivek Ramaswamy. The multimillionaire entrepreneur describes himself as “anti-woke” and has made a name for himself in right-wing circles by opposing corporate efforts to advance political, social and environmental causes. He has promised to go farther down the road of ruling by fiat than Trump would or could.
More G.O.P. candidates. The former Texas congressman Will Hurd, Mayor Francis Suarez of Miami, Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and the conservative talk radio host Larry Elder have also launched long-shot bids for the Republican presidential nomination. Read more about the 2024 candidates.
“He might say mean things and make all the men cry because all the men are wearing your wife’s underpants and you can’t be a man anymore,” said David Green, 69, a retail manager in Somersworth, N.H., said of Mr. Trump. “You got to be a little sissy and cry about everything. But at the end of the day, you want results. Donald Trump’s my guy. He’s proved it on a national level.”
Both Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis maintain strong overall favorable ratings from Republicans, 76 percent and 66 percent. That Mr. DeSantis is still so well liked after a drumbeat of news coverage questioning his ability to connect with voters, and more than $20 million in attack ads from a Trump super PAC, demonstrates a certain resiliency. His political team has argued that his overall positive image with G.O.P. voters provides a solid foundation on which to build.
But the intensity of the former president’s support is a key difference as 43 percent of Republicans have a “very favorable” opinion of Mr. Trump — a cohort that he carries by an overwhelming 92 percent to 7 percent margin in a one-on-one race with Mr. DeSantis.
By contrast, Mr. DeSantis is stuck in an effective tie with Mr. Trump, edging him 49 percent to 48 percent, among the smaller share of primary voters (25 percent) who view the Florida governor very favorably.
In interviews with poll respondents, a recurring theme emerged. They like Mr. DeSantis; they love Mr. Trump.
“DeSantis, I have high hopes. But as long as Trump’s there, Trump’s the man,” said Daniel Brown, 58, a retired technician at a nuclear plant from Bumpass, Va.
Stanton Strohmenger, 48, a maintenance technician, said he was supporting Mr. Trump.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
“If he wasn’t running against Trump, DeSantis would be my very next choice,” said Stanton Strohmenger, 48, a maintenance technician in Washington Township, Ohio.
A number of respondents interviewed drew a distinction between Mr. DeSantis’s accomplishments in Tallahassee and Mr. Trump’s in the White House.
Image by WSJElon Musk’s Latest Mission: Rev Up the Electricity Industry
‘My biggest concern is that there’s insufficient urgency,’ the billionaire tells energy executives
TWSJ by Tim Higgins, July 29, 2023 Elon Musk wants more power—literally.
The man behind the race to replace gasoline-fueled cars with electric ones is worried about having enough juice.
In recent days he has reiterated those concerns, predicting U.S. consumption of electricity, driven in part by battery-powered vehicles, will triple by around 2045. That followed his saying earlier this month that he anticipates an electricity shortage in two years that could stunt the energy-hungry development of artificial intelligence.
“You really need to bring the time scale of projects in sooner and have a high sense of urgency,” Musk told energy executives Tuesday at a conference held by PG&E, one of the nation’s largest utilities. “My biggest concern is that there’s insufficient urgency.”
Musk’s participation with PG&E Chief Executive Patti Poppe at the power company’s conference marked the third major energy event the billionaire has appeared at in the past 12 months. He has played the part of Cassandra, trying to spark more industry attention on the infrastructure required for his EV and AI futures as he advocates for a fully electric economy.
“I can’t emphasize enough: we need more electricity,” Musk said last month at an energy conference in Austin. “However much electricity you think you need, more than that is needed.”
The U.S. energy industry in recent years already has struggled at times to keep up with demand, resorting to threats of rolling blackouts amid heat waves and other demand spikes. Those stresses have rattled an industry undergoing an upheaval as old, polluting plants are being replaced by renewable energy. Utilities are spending big to retool their systems to be greener and make them more resilient. Deloitte estimates the largest U.S. electric companies together will spend as much as $1.8 trillion by 2030 on those efforts.
Adding to the challenge is an industry historically accustomed to moving slowly, partly because of regulators aiming to protect consumers from price increases.
And that has been mostly OK. For the past 20 years, U.S. electricity demand has grown at an average rate of 1% each year, according to a Deloitte study.
“If you have a fairly static electricity demand, which has been the case in the U.S. for a while, it hasn’t changed a lot, then having projects take a long time is OK,” Musk said Tuesday. “But in a rapidly changing scenario, where electricity demand is increasing, we have to move much faster.”
Executives and consultants do see stark change coming—but not as dramatic as what Musk predicts.
Deloitte estimates the top U.S. electric companies together will spend as much as $1.8 trillion by 2030 to revamp their systems to be greener and more resilient. PHOTO: DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG NEWS
PG&E expects electricity demand will rise 70% in the next 20 years, which, the California company notes, would be unprecedented. Similarly, McKinsey expects U.S. demand will double by 2050.
“This is an opportunity of the century for the power sector, and they could blow it if they don’t get it right,” Michael Webber, an energy resources professor at the University of Texas, Austin, said of the industry. “This demand growth is partly from EVs, but also heat pumps, data centers, AI, home devices…you name it.”
PG&E’s Poppe seemed receptive to Musk’s warning, if not exactly leaping to update her plans. “We are definitely taking notes here,” she told Musk. “I’m going to be the last person to doubt your predictions for the future.”
Part of the differing views of growth may boil down to how Musk wants the world to change. He wants cars and heating systems running on electricity.
His push for tripling output is part of his advocacy for a transition to a fully electric economy, a more ambitious step than many in the industry are pursuing.
Beyond seeking a greener future, Musk is also warning that a lack of electricity could be crippling, much like the recent chips shortage that damaged the tech and auto industries. This time, it might stunt the burgeoning development of AI.
“My prediction is that we will go from…an extreme silicon shortage today to…an electricity shortage in two years,” Musk said during an event earlier this month to discuss his new startup, xAI, which aims to develop advanced intelligence. “That’s roughly where things are trending.”
Rabble-rousing isn’t new for Musk. His entrepreneurial career has long involved jawboning entrenched industries, attempting to bend their plans and spending to his will and ambitions.
A decade ago, his predictions for electric-car growth were seen by some as wildly optimistic, but his determination helped make him the world’s richest man and Tesla the world’s most valuable automaker.
As the chief executive of Tesla, Musk does have a vested interest in more electricity, especially as he chases the goal of being able to build 20 million EVs annually by 2030. Tesla is centered around the mission of ushering in renewable energy and has smaller parts of its business selling solar panels and battery storage, including to utilities.
One of Musk’s solutions is to better optimize the grid by running power plants around-the- clock and storing the energy not used during peak hours in battery packs for use later. “I’m not sure it might be as much as a 2x gain…but it’s at least 50% to 100% increase in total energy output,” Musk said recently.
He is advocating for more electricity at the same time he is stoking demand. And no place in the U.S. better illustrates that than in California, where car buyers continue to embrace EVs sold by him and others.
The success of Tesla helped EVs make up 21% of new vehicle registrations in the state through the first half of this year, an increase from just 5.2% in all of 2019. Nationally, EVs haven’t yet grabbed market share like they have in California, but sales are growing. Musk predicts half of all new vehicles sold globally by 2030 will be electric.
The rate of EV load on the energy grid has surprised Edison International, company CEO Pedro Pizarro said.
At the June conference, Pizarro was on stage with Musk, who told the energy executive that his prediction of 60% demand growth in California by 2045 wasn’t enough, saying, “I think it’s much more load than that.”
“It may be,” Pizarro responded as awkward laughter erupted in the auditorium full of energy executives.
“Uh, by like a lot,” Musk continued. “It’s just, everything is going to be electric.”
Elon Musk Rolls Out New X Logo as Twitter Rebrands
A few weeks later, in an interview, Pizarro said he was still thinking about the exchange.
While he still doesn’t see demand tripling, Pizarro said, the company’s predictions for electricity demand will likely be higher than 60% once it finishes reviewing what changes state mandates and consumer preferences are having on their assumptions, which were originally made in 2019.
“Right now,” Pizarro said of Musk, “we may have, maybe, a little different view in terms of a matter of degree in what is a practical approach but I appreciate that he is putting a marker out there.”
At the Energy Summit 2923 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Edwin De los Santos, President of AES DOMINICANA, emphasized the company's strong commitment to global environmental preservation.
“The relationship between energy and development is symbiotic and interdependent. “
Source: Mary Powell photographed at her home in Vermont, July 2023. OLIVER PARINI FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNALSunrun CEO Mary Powell Loves Big Problems
The solar-power executive says the energy industry is facing a ‘consumer-led revolution’
WSJ by Emily Bobrow, July 28, 2023 As Texans suffer record-breaking heat, many are staying cool thanks to an unexpected savior: solar energy. New solar farms and panels on homes have increased solar capacity in Texas sixfold since 2019, supplying around 15% of the state’s electricity during peak hours, according to the state’s grid operator. When some coal and gas plants suffered outages in June, Texas’s solar panels, wind turbines and giant batteries helped keep air conditioners humming.
This, says Mary Powell, is a taste of the future. As the CEO of California-based Sunrun, the largest residential solar and energy storage company in the U.S., she hopes to help lead what she calls “a consumer-led revolution to a different kind of energy system.” Powell, 62, notes that volatile fuel prices and catastrophic weather events have raised demand for technology that liberates people from the uncertainty of aging power grids: “We have to remember we have an energy system that is essentially over 100 years old, and it wasn’t built for economic efficiency.” Sunrun operates in Texas and 21 other states plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico.
Only around 4% of U.S. homes generate solar electricity today, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Many electric and gas utilities are lobbying for regulations and fees that would hinder further investments in renewables, out of concern that customers who use solar power may end up abandoning the grid entirely. Powell, who ran Green Mountain Power (GMP), Vermont’s largest utility, for over a decade, argues that this is “such a short-sighted view.” She compares the opposition of utilities to the heel-dragging of traditional phone companies in the face of cellular technology decades ago: “You don’t resist innovation that consumers want and that can improve society. You figure out how to lean into it.”
Growing up in an artsy household on Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Powell didn’t aspire to a corner office. “I call myself the accidental executive,” she says. The youngest child of Addison Powell, an award-winning actor, she used to pity anyone who wore a suit to work. Yet she learned to be practical at a young age, in part because her father was often between jobs. She did a lot of babysitting and dog-walking for neighbors: “I knew I needed to be self-supporting.”
Powell used her savings to earn an associate degree at Keene State College in New Hampshire, where she studied art but did not see a future in it. She pondered a bartending course, but the $850 fee put her off. Instead, in 1980 she got a job as a technical writer and administrative assistant at the Manhattan-based Reserve Primary Fund, a pioneering money-market fund, whose assets grew from $200 million to $3.5 billion in her eight years there. She rose to associate director of operations, and while she admits the business itself didn’t fascinate her, she took pride in “disrupting the banking model” by giving customers better returns than they could get through their banks.
By 1989 Powell wanted off the treadmill, so she and her husband Mark Brooks, a chef, moved to Vermont. She directed human resources for the state government, serving three governors in less than four years. “Seeing how individuals could shape policy has informed so much of the work I have done,” she says.
Powell didn’t much like telling people what they should be doing: ‘I actually want to be the one doing it.’
Powell started her own human resources consulting firm in 1997, hoping for a new start after a difficult year in which she lost her mother, gave birth to her daughter and saw her home destroyed in a fire. Yet she soon learned that she didn’t much like telling people what they should be doing: “I actually want to be the one doing it.”
She sought GMP as a client, but they wanted to hire her instead. Powell declined job offers from its CEO three times but then relented, joining as vice president of HR in 1998. Without an engineering background, she worried that she would find the work of a utility hard to master. Instead, she says, “What struck me was how ripe it was for disruption.” Powell used the threat of bankruptcy to restructure the company, flattening the hierarchy and reducing the staff through buyouts and retirements.
After she became CEO in 2008, GMP built solar and wind farms and offered financing for some customers to install residential solar panels and batteries, which allowed them to sell excess energy back to the grid at times of peak demand. “You’re leveraging assets that consumers have invested in to help make the entire grid more affordable and resilient,” she explains. By using energy from residential batteries, GMP sometimes “saved half a million bucks in a few hours.”
During Powell’s tenure, GMP was named to Fast Company’s Most Innovative Companies list four years running. But she says “the awards let a complacency set in when we need to be scaling faster.” She stepped down as CEO in 2019: “I found out how fast the fastest-moving utility could move in America and it wasn’t fast enough for me,” she says. In 2021 she took the top job at Sunrun, having served on the company’s board since 2018.
Today Sunrun controls 18% of the residential solar market, ahead of competitors such as SunPower and Tesla. Tax credits from last year’s climate bill are making solar panels more attractive to homeowners, and in May the company reported a 20% rise in sales year over year. But high interest rates and rising equipment costs have been challenging for a business that relies on installing rooftop solar systems for little money up front and then charging a monthly fee. Another obstacle is the permitting process for installing solar panels, which varies from place to place. “For someone who loves big problems,” Powell says, “it’s been right up my alley.”
With heat waves challenging energy grids across the country, Powell sees a growing demand for new options. She points to Sunrun’s partnership with Ford as a sign of what’s to come. The company’s bidirectional charger makes it possible to juice up Ford’s new electric F-150 pickup truck with solar power, and also to use the truck’s battery to power a home through a blackout for around 10 days. “More people,” she says, “want more control over how they power their homes.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Source: MediaUK will issue hundreds of new oil and gas licenses in North Sea
The British government said the plan is to secure energy reserves while still aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Le Monde with AFP, today at 9:15 am
The UK government said on Monday, July 31, it would issue "hundreds" of new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea to secure energy reserves while still aiming for net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
"Investment in the North Sea will continue to unlock new projects, protect jobs, reduce emissions and boost UK energy independence," Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's office said in a statement. It added that "a more flexible application process" would be applied for the license requests, which would still be subject to a "climate compatibility" test for carbon reduction goals.
"The government is taking steps to slow the rapid decline in domestic production of oil and gas, which will secure our domestic energy supply and reduce reliance on hostile states," it said.
Moscow's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, saw a global surge in energy prices as Western nations imposed sanctions against Moscow, targeting in particular its massive oil and gas exports.
"We have all witnessed how Putin has manipulated and weaponized energy – disrupting supply and stalling growth in countries around the world," Sunak said in the statement, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Now more than ever, it's vital that we bolster our energy security and capitalize on that independence to deliver more affordable, clean energy."
A study released Monday by the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) said the carbon footprint from domestic UK gas production was one-fourth the footprint from imported liquified natural gas. It also confirmed plans to build two more carbon-capture facilities along the North Sea coast, at Acorn in northeast Scotland and Viking near Humber, England, alongside two already under construction. It said the four clusters could support up to 50,000 jobs by 2030.
Sunak is due to visit an energy infrastructure site later Monday in Aberdeenshire to "highlight the central role the region will play in strengthening the UK's energy independence and meet the next generation of skilled apprentices key to driving this work forward."
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
“In Brussels, they’re already pretty much in election mode and so pushing this one forward in the time of high consumer prices and high energy prices is considered not very opportune” | Simon Maina/AFPThe climate law the EU (conveniently) forgot
Talks on the Energy Taxation Directive have stalled over fears of political backlash.
POLITICO EU by VICTOR JACK AND ZIA WEISE, JULY 26, 2023 With next year's European election fast approaching and policy work slowly drawing to a close, Brussels lawmakers have largely managed the Herculean task of pushing through the bloc’s Green Deal climate laws.
But gathering dust deep inside the EU's labyrinthine legislative machine lies one green law largely forgotten by the bloc’s politicians.
Talks on revising the 20-year-old Energy Taxation Directive, proposed as part of the European Commission’s Fit for 55 climate package that aims to slash emissions by 55 percent by 2030, have stalled.
Critics argue that negotiations ground to a halt because policies seen to add to already high energy prices have become politically toxic, especially as Brussels moves into campaign season. Others say striking a deal was never going to be easy, given changing EU tax rules requires unanimous backing from all 27 of the bloc’s members.
“It’s stalling … because [the EU’s] member states are not calling for an agreement and because the Commission is not putting enough pressure,” said a diplomat from one EU country involved in negotiations, who was granted anonymity to speak freely on the dynamics between countries.
“In Brussels, they’re already pretty much in election mode and so pushing this one forward in the time of high consumer prices and high energy prices is considered not very opportune,” the diplomat added, putting the chances of a deal in the next two years at “under 50 percent.”
Others go further, arguing the legislation should be condemned to the scrapheap. “We see a need for a new Energy Tax Directive because the current one is outdated,” said a second national diplomat, adding that more than one EU capital was pushing for the same outcome.
In limbo
The original directive, implemented back in 2003, sets out minimum rates of tax for different types of energy products including diesel, gasoline and electricity.
Currently, the EU sets a fixed rate of tax based on the volume — or euros per liter — of fuel, which the Commission now argues is incompatible with the bloc’s green ambitions since it doesn’t account for the environmental impact of fuels and exempts polluting sectors like aviation.
In 2021, the EU executive proposed changes that would see new rates based on the energy content and environmental performance of fuels, and scrap several long-held exemptions.
But the file has remained at the technical working party level since, the first diplomat said, arguing the problem was political since the actual legislative discussions are “quite advanced.”
It’s not the first time the law has faced challenges. In 2015, the Commission was forced to withdraw its previous proposed revision after four years of disagreement among EU countries.
MEPs have limited powers to amend the law and can only give an opinion | Julien Warnand/EFE via EPA
In the European Parliament, too, the file is facing prolonged delays.
Although MEPs have limited powers to amend the law and can only give an opinion, the Parliament’s chief negotiator on the file, Belgian MEP Johan Van Overtveldt, sent a letter earlier this month asking the Commission to carry out a new impact assessment before talks proceed, claiming that the current one, issued in 2021, was outdated.
“The decision was taken to suspend the discussions on the ETD until we get a clear impact assessment from the Commission,” said Van Overtveldt, a lawmaker from the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group. His letter was co-signed by Socialists & Democrats MEP Irene Tinagli, who chairs the economic affairs committee.
A Commission spokesperson said the EU executive would “reply soon” to Van Overtveldt’s letter, and insisted that the current impact assessment ensured “coherence with other Fit for 55 proposals.”
The Commission is pressing countries "to continue now working constructively towards an adoption of the proposal as soon as possible," the spokesperson added.
Taxing debate
Despite the delays, a reform of tax rules has gained widespread support from industry and NGOs.
“The current version … reflects the power system of the past,” said Savannah Altvater, a policy officer at electricity lobby Eurelectric, since it sets higher minimum rates for electricity than for gas and thereby “disincentivizes electrification” — and by extension decarbonization.
The taxes set under the ETD account for about 2 percent of EU electricity tariffs on average; any reduction under a reformed directive would help consumers as all the taxes currently charged by governments add up to 41 percent of total power bills
That’s “really hurting the industry,” she said. “If the gas bill is a lot lower than the electricity bill, then at the end of the day, you're going to keep the gas boiler over the heat pump.”
The reform would give a clear, immediate incentive for consumers to switch to products running on greener fuels since these would be cheaper, said Luke Haywood, climate policy manager at the European Environmental Bureau NGO. Failure to clinch a deal on the file "would make it more difficult" for the EU to hit its climate targets, he added.
Even the fuel industry, which would likely see its tax rates — including for gasoline and diesel — increase under the plans, is supportive.
“We've been pushing very hard for a revision because … it would have been a good incentive for the production and the use of renewable fuels” such as biodiesel, said Alain Mathuren, communications director at the FuelsEurope lobby.
But that’ll mean overcoming stiff opposition from some countries.
“What has probably ... played a role in all this is that there certainly was no appetite for this at the Council level,” said Van Overtveldt.
Particularly amid the rising cost of living, he added, “I got the impression that the general feeling was 'OK, this is not a moment to do it' ... If the purchasing power of citizens has already been that much attacked, if I may use that word, you should be very hesitant about going any further down that road at this particular point in time.”
Even before inflation spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU capitals were sharply divided, according to the first diplomat, with Western European countries including France pushing for the changes and Central European countries largely resistant.
Mediterranean countries with maritime and tourism industries, including Greece, Cyprus and Malta, are also concerned about the reform meaning new taxes for shipping and aviation, they added.
Now, as the EU’s Green Deal faces a growing political backlash, “more progressive” countries “are scared to bring it up at the political level,” according to the diplomat.
“That could be the death bed of it.”
News round-up, July 29, 2023
The UFO Enigma…
Historic Testimony Uncovers Secret Defence Program and —Nonhuman Biologics— print at UFO Crash Sites
Former intelligence official David Grusch captivated the nation on July 26, these years, when he testified before Congress, revealing a clandestine defense program solely dedicated to the study of unidentified flying objects (UFOs). Grusch's astounding revelations have pushed the enigmatic field of unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) to the forefront of national security concerns, promoting transparency and shedding light on the enigmatic field. UFO sightings have increased in recent years, particularly among military personnel and pilots. These accounts have prompted lawmakers from all political parties to recognize the significance of UFOs as a pressing national security issue. During his testimony, Grusch shocked the nation once again by divulging the existence of —Nonhuman Biologics— discovered at alleged crash sites of UFOs. This revelation has ignited a renewed fascination with the possibility of extraterrestrial life and created an urgent need for further investigation. The emergence of this truth has placed intelligence agencies under unprecedented pressure to disclose information that has long been shrouded in stigma, confusion, and secrecy. In conclusion, as attention is drawn to this once-obscure topic, people demand transparency and more comprehensive information about the ongoing research.
Source: TimeMost read…
Witness Tells Congress 'Nonhuman Biologics' Were Found at Alleged UFO Crash Sites
Whistleblower Tells Congress U.S. Is Concealing Program That Captures UFOs
TIME BY NIK POPLI, JULY 26, 2023 Social poison
The Editorial of Le Monde Diplomatique for August by *Benoît Bréville
*Benoît Bréville is president and editorial director of Le Monde diplomatiqueStrong gas business helps to cushion Eni profit fall
Italian energy company Eni reported adjusted net profit of 1.94 billion euros ($2.13 billion) for the period, a decrease from the exceptional result of 3.81 billion euros recorded the previous year.
Reuters by Francesca Landini, July 28, 2023IEA says coal use hit an all-time high last year — and global demand will persist near record levels
In 2022, coal contributed approximately 36% of the world's electricity generation, with a total of 10,440 terawatt hours produced from coal.
CNBS by Anmar Frangoul, Editing by Germán & Co, JUL 27 2023Rhodes to ruin — fleeing the Greek inferno
“In Lindos, we marvelled at the panoramic acropolis and relaxed on stunning beaches, but little did we know that devastating fires would shatter our tranquil experience.
EUObserver by ARTHUR NESLEN, RHODES/BRUSSELS, July 24, 2023Trump charged with seeking to delete security footage in documents case
Unsealed indictment charges second aide at Mar-a-Lago and brings new counts against the former president and longtime valet Walt Nauta
TWP by Devlin Barrett, Perry Stein, Spencer S. Hsu and Josh Dawsey, July 27, 2023 Image by Germán & CoIn 2022, coal contributed approximately 36% of the world's electricity generation, with a total of 10,440 terawatt hours produced from coal.
〰️
In 2022, coal contributed approximately 36% of the world's electricity generation, with a total of 10,440 terawatt hours produced from coal. 〰️
The UFO Enigma…
Historic Testimony Uncovers Secret Defence Program and —Nonhuman Biologics— print at UFO Crash Sites
Former intelligence official David Grusch captivated the nation on July 26, these years, when he testified before Congress, revealing a clandestine defense program solely dedicated to the study of unidentified flying objects (UFOs). Grusch's astounding revelations have pushed the enigmatic field of unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) to the forefront of national security concerns, promoting transparency and shedding light on the enigmatic field. UFO sightings have increased in recent years, particularly among military personnel and pilots. These accounts have prompted lawmakers from all political parties to recognize the significance of UFOs as a pressing national security issue. During his testimony, Grusch shocked the nation once again by divulging the existence of —Nonhuman Biologics— discovered at alleged crash sites of UFOs. This revelation has ignited a renewed fascination with the possibility of extraterrestrial life and created an urgent need for further investigation. The emergence of this truth has placed intelligence agencies under unprecedented pressure to disclose information that has long been shrouded in stigma, confusion, and secrecy. In conclusion, as attention is drawn to this once-obscure topic, people demand transparency and more comprehensive information about the ongoing research.
Source: TimeMost read…
Witness Tells Congress 'Nonhuman Biologics' Were Found at Alleged UFO Crash Sites
Whistleblower Tells Congress U.S. Is Concealing Program That Captures UFOs
TIME BY NIK POPLI, JULY 26, 2023 Social poison
The Editorial of Le Monde Diplomatique for August by *Benoît Bréville
*Benoît Bréville is president and editorial director of Le Monde diplomatiqueStrong gas business helps to cushion Eni profit fall
Italian energy company Eni reported adjusted net profit of 1.94 billion euros ($2.13 billion) for the period, a decrease from the exceptional result of 3.81 billion euros recorded the previous year.
Reuters By Francesca Landini, july 28, 2023IEA says coal use hit an all-time high last year — and global demand will persist near record levels
In 2022, coal contributed approximately 36% of the world's electricity generation, with a total of 10,440 terawatt hours produced from coal.
CNBS by Anmar Frangoul, Editing by Germán & Co, JUL 27 2023Rhodes to ruin — fleeing the Greek inferno
“In Lindos, we marvelled at the panoramic acropolis and relaxed on stunning beaches, but little did we know that devastating fires would shatter our tranquil experience.
EUObserver by ARTHUR NESLEN, RHODES/BRUSSELS, July 24, 2023Trump charged with seeking to delete security footage in documents case
Unsealed indictment charges second aide at Mar-a-Lago and brings new counts against the former president and longtime valet Walt Nauta
TWP by Devlin Barrett, Perry Stein, Spencer S. Hsu and Josh Dawsey, July 27, 2023 
Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES He's responsible for creating social responsibility and sustainability at AES
Andrés Gluski is the leader who introduced corporate social responsibility as a priority for AES. The result of these efforts has been extraordinary: AES was named one of the "World's Most Ethical Companies" by the Ethisphere Institute and has received this distinction for four consecutive years. There is nothing more to say about his leadership; it is commendable. In addition, he set goals for the company that culminated in the inclusion of the company in the North American Dow Jones Sustainability Index.
Source: Moneyinc.com
Image by Germán & CoWitness Tells Congress 'Nonhuman Biologics' Were Found at Alleged UFO Crash Sites
Whistleblower Tells Congress U.S. Is Concealing Program That Captures UFOs
TIME BY NIK POPLI, JULY 26, 2023
A former intelligence official claimed the U.S. government has been covering up a longstanding defense program that collects and reverse engineers unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and has found "nonhuman biologics" at alleged UFO crash sites.
The highly anticipated testimony from David Grusch, a former member of a U.S. Air Force panel on unidentified anomalous phenomena—also known as unidentified aerial phenomena—(UAP), was part of an effort by Congress to pressure intelligence agencies for more transparency into the existence of UFOs, a subject of heightened scrutiny following an increase in reported sightings by military personnel and pilots in recent years. Although extraterrestrial life has long been shrouded in stigma, confusion, and secrecy, lawmakers on both sides of the political spectrum have been rallying around the push for more research on the topic as a national security matter.
“UAPs, whatever they may be, may pose a serious threat to our military and our civilian aircraft, and that must be understood,” Democratic Rep. Robert Garcia of California said. “We should encourage more reporting, not less on UAPs. The more we understand, the safer we will be.”
Testifying under oath at a House subcommittee hearing on Wednesday, Grusch told lawmakers he believes the U.S. government is in possession of UAPs based on his interviews with 40 witnesses over four years, claiming that he was informed of "a multi-decade UAP crash retrieval and reverse-engineering program" during the course of his work examining classified programs. He said he was denied access to those programs when he requested it, and accused the military of misappropriating funds to shield these operations from congressional oversight.
The Pentagon denies Grusch’s claims about a UAP crash-retrieval and reverse-engineering program. "To date, the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) has not discovered any verifiable information to substantiate claims that any programs regarding the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials have existed in the past or exist currently," Sue Gough, a Pentagon spokesperson, tells TIME in a statement. "The Department is fully committed to openness and accountability to the American people, which it must balance with its obligation to protect sensitive information, sources, and methods," the statement continued in part. "DoD is also committed to timely and thorough reporting to Congress."
During his testimony, Grusch added that he knows of “multiple colleagues” who were physically injured by UAP activity and by people within the U.S. government, but declined to share more details. He also said that “nonhuman biologics” were found at alleged UAP crash sites when asked about the pilots of the craft.
No government officials testified at Wednesday’s hearing, though Sean Kirkpatrick, the director of the Pentagon’s office focusing on UAPs, told a Senate subcommittee in April that the U.S. government was tracking 650 potential cases of unidentified aerial phenomena, playing video from two of the episodes. During that public testimony, Kirkpatrick emphasized there was no evidence of extraterrestrial life and that his office found “no credible evidence” of objects that defy the known laws of physics.
The House Oversight subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs heard additional witness testimony Wednesday from former U.S. Navy fighter pilots Ryan Graves and retired Commander David Fravor, who both claimed they had encountered aircraft of a nonhuman origin. “These sightings are not rare or isolated,” said Graves, who served in the Navy for over a decade. “Military aircrews and commercial pilots, trained observers whose lives depend on accurate identification, are frequently witnessing these phenomena.”
Graves told lawmakers that his aircrew encountered UAP during a training exercise off the coast of Virginia Beach, Va, when their lead jet came within 50 feet of what he described as a “dark gray or black cube inside of a clear sphere.” He estimated it to be five to 15 feet in diameter, motionless against the wind, fixed directly at the entry point. The mission was immediately terminated, and his squadron submitted a safety report that he claims received no official acknowledgement of the incident.
While the hearing marked a significant moment in shining light on unexplained objects in the sky, it was short on providing answers. National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby admitted last week that UFOs have been causing problems for the U.S. Air Force, particularly for pilot training exercises. “When pilots are out trying to do training in the air and they see these things, they’re not sure what they are and it can have an impact on their ability to perfect their skills. So it already had an impact here,” Kirby said at a White House press briefing. “We want to get to the bottom of it. We want to understand it better.”
There’s growing, bipartisan interest on Capitol Hill for reform. Provisions in the Senate’s version of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act would require federal agencies to hand over records related to UAP to a panel with the power to declassify them.
“If UAP are foreign drones, it is an urgent national security problem,” Graves said. “If it is something else, it is an issue for science. In either case, unidentified objects are a concern for flight safety.”
The federal government has recorded 510 UFO sightings since 2004, according to an unclassified report Office of the Director of National Intelligence released in January.
The Power Of Protest Art/Félix Vallotton, “La Charge” (1893), Musée national d’Art moderne, Centre Pompidou, Paris, gift of Adèle and Georges Besson in 1963, on long-term loan to the Musée des Beaux-Arts et d’Archéologie de Besançon (© Centre Pompidou / MNAM; photo by Pierre Guenat, Besançon, Musée des beaux-arts et d’archéologie)Social poison
The Editorial of Le Monde Diplomatique for August by *Benoît Bréville*Benoît Bréville is president and editorial director of Le Monde diplomatique.Vaulx-en-Velin, Lyon, 6 October 1990. Thomas Claudio, 21, was riding his motorcycle when he was hit by a police car. He died instantly. Riots erupted in the city and lasted four days. Shops were looted, cars set alight, schools ransacked, firefighters injured and journalists attacked. ‘Unemployment and lack of education for young people are responsible for these events,’ according to Nicolas Sarkozy, then a rightwing deputy mayor (1).
Clichy-sous-Bois, Paris, 27 October 2005. Two teenagers being chased by the police, Zyed Benna and Bouna Traoré, took refuge in an electricity substation and died from electrocution. Clashes broke out in Seine-Saint-Denis and soon spread nationwide. After three turbulent weeks, President Jacques Chirac expressed regret that ‘some places accumulate too many disadvantages, too many problems’ and called for a fight against ‘the social poison of discrimination’. He also condemned ‘illegal immigration and the trafficking it generates’ and ‘families that refuse to take responsibility’.
Nanterre, Paris, 23 June 2023. Nahel Merzouk, 17, was shot in the chest during a traffic stop. Riots spread at lightning speed across the country. The episode was short (five days) but intense: 23,878 fires on public roads, 5,892 torched vehicles, 3,486 arrests, 1,105 buildings attacked, 269 police stations targeted, 243 schools damaged. ‘These events have nothing to do with a social crisis’ but everything to do with ‘the disintegration of the state and the nation’, according to the likely rightwing candidate for the next presidential election, Laurent Wauquiez (Les Républicains, LR) (2). And woe betide anyone claiming otherwise: they are instantly accused of justifying violence, fuelling a ‘culture of excuses’, or even being guilty of sedition and a ‘threat to the Republic’ (3).
In the reactions they provoke, these successive urban riots reflect how the French political landscape has been flattened by the steamroller of security and identity politics. The social explanation, which was once put forward as self-evident, however disingenuously, has been relegated to the background; mentioning it is now off-limits. In the past, any government that faced such events would announce a plan for the banlieues, to address the multiple disadvantages these areas suffer. Once public attention had subsided, this would be scaled back — a few subsidised jobs, grants to local organisations, credits for building refurbishments...
There have been around a dozen such plans since the 1980s, and they’ve solved nothing: not unemployment, not segregation and certainly not the tensions between young people and the police. Yet as each one follows the last, they have created the sense that the state has already done too much for the banlieues and that it’s now time to refocus on the ‘real’ problems: immigration, Islam, parental neglect, the leniency of the justice system, video games, social media... A discourse tailor-made to artificially set banlieues against the countryside — when both are abandoned territories where the working class live.
The AES Corporation's Andes Solar IIb
The facility's start-up in the region of Antofagasta, Chile, represents a —-unique—- milestone in the renewable energy sector. With an installed capacity of 180 MW and 112 MW of five-hour duration energy storage, this facility is now the largest system of its kind in Latin America. The Andes Solar IIb facility's capacity comprises 170 MW of bifacial solar panels and 10 MW of 5B's Maverick technology.
The construction of this facility utilized Maverick technology and pre-made modular components, resulting in a 33% reduction in installation time compared to other traditional solar systems. Adding Andes Solar IIb to AES Andes brings the total number of solar facilities managed in the Antofagasta region to 429 MW.
Reaffirming its commitment to sustainable and efficient power generation, AES Corporation continues to make significant strides in the renewable energy sector.
Image by Germán & CoStrong gas business helps to cushion Eni profit fall
Italian ener
gy company Eni reported adjusted net profit of 1.94 billion euros ($2.13 billion) for the period, a decrease from the exceptional result of 3.81 billion euros recorded the previous year.
Reuters By Francesca Landini, july 28, 2023Eni's logo is seen in front of its headquarters in San Donato Milanese, near Milan, Italy, April 27, 2016. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo
MILAN, July 28 (Reuters) - Italian energy group Eni (ENI.MI) reported a 49% fall in its adjusted net profit in the second quarter because of weaker commodity prices but a strong performance from its gas business helped it to beat forecasts.
Adjusted net profit in the period came in at 1.94 billion euros ($2.13 billion) down from a bumper result of 3.81 billion euros a year ago, but above an analyst consensus of 1.64 billion euros.
The state-controlled group raised its 2023 guidance for its gas business (GGP) after it underpinned the group's results in the second quarter with an adjusted operating profit of 1.1 billion euros, more than double the 0.5 billion analysts had pencilled in.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, Eni moved quickly to replace Moscow's gas supplies with fuel it extracts in African countries, strengthening its position on the gas markets.
Trading activity related to its large gas portfolio and re-negotiations and settlements related to contracts were the factors behind the good performance of the division in the last three months, it said.
Eni now expects the gas business to reach an adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) figure of between 2.7 billion and 3.0 billion euros for the year versus previous guidance of 2.0-2.2 billion euros.
It also improved its full-year outlook for its low-carbon unit Plenitude and trimmed plans for capital expenditure this year to below 9 billion euros from a previous estimate of 9.2 billion euros.
Group's expectation for adjusted EBIT for this year is confirmed at 12 billion euros even after taking into account a weaker oil and gas prices.
REWARDING INVESTORS
On Thursday Shell (SHEL.L) and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) reported sharp falls in second-quarter profit from bumper 2022 earnings as oil and gas prices, refining margins and trading results all weakened.
"Eni has reported a strong set of second-quarter results, with adjusted EBIT and net income coming in well ahead of market expectations," said Royal Bank of Scotland in a note, adding the new guidance for the gas division was a significant move up relative to market expectations.
Shares in the group were up 1%, outperforming a flat Milan's blue-chip index (.FTSEMIB) at 0740 GMT.
In the second quarter Eni and other energy groups had to cope with a 30% fall in crude oil prices and a drop of more than 60% in the gas price and refining margins compared with the same period last year.
Despite a weaker outlook for commodity prices, Eni said it would continue a share buy-back programme started in May.
"Considering our first-half results and continuing business
performance that drives raised guidance, we have a solid position from which to pay our first quarterly instalment of the raised 0.94 euros per share 2023 dividend in September and continue our 2.2 billion euro buy-back," Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image by Germán & Co IEA says coal use hit an all-time high last year — and global demand will persist near record levels
In 2022, coal contributed approximately 36% of the world's electricity generation, with a total of 10,440 terawatt hours produced from coal.
CNBS by Anmar Frangoul, Editing by Germán & Co, JUL 27 2023Coal consumption increased by 3.3% to hit a fresh record high of 8.3 billion metric tons in 2022, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.
According to the Paris-based organization’s Coal Market Update, demand increased “despite a weaker global economy, mainly driven by being more readily available and relatively cheaper than gas in many parts of the world.”
Overall, the IEA said 10,440 terawatt hours were generated from coal in 2022, a figure that accounted for 36% of the planet’s electricity generation.
Looking ahead, the IEA said coal consumption in 2023 would remain near last year’s record levels.
Geographically, the picture in 2023 is mixed. “By region, coal demand fell faster than previously expected in the first half of this year in the United States and the European Union — by 24% and 16%, respectively,” the IEA said in a statement accompanying its report.
“However, demand from the two largest consumers, China and India, grew by over 5% during the first half, more than offsetting declines elsewhere,” it added.
“Coal is the largest single source of carbon emissions from the energy sector, and in Europe and the United States, the growth of clean energy has put coal use into structural decline,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security, said Thursday.
“But demand remains stubbornly high in Asia, even as many of those economies have significantly ramped up renewable energy sources,” he added.
Going forward, Sadamori said “greater policy efforts and investments” were needed in order to “drive a massive surge in clean energy and energy efficiency to reduce coal demand in economies where energy needs are growing fast.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoRhodes to ruin — fleeing the Greek inferno
“In Lindos, we marvelled at the panoramic acropolis and relaxed on stunning beaches, but little did we know that devastating fires would shatter our tranquil experience.
EUObserver by ARTHUR NESLEN, RHODES/BRUSSELS, July 24, 2023My family and I left Rhodes on Saturday morning (22 July) — just as the island's forest fire escaped all control. But ominous warnings had been in the (35 degree celsius) air all week.
The apologetic manager at the astronomy café on a hilltop who couldn't serve water as it was being siphoned to fight the fires further south; the taxi driver from Apollona in a state of shock and fear after his home village was evacuated, and of course the water-carrying helicopters at Rhodes airport as we departed, taking off from runways as if in some Vietnam movie pastiche.
Beyond counting our blessings — and our fears for those still trapped in the fire zone — we were left dazed and disoriented by the blazing spike which had punctured our tourist bubble. Last Monday we were in Lindos, marvelling at its panoramic acropolis and enjoying its beaches. Now it is the site of tourist evacuations. No relocation is possible though for the island's natural treasure trove.
With its dense, mixed, verdant interior, Rhodes is as rich in biodiversity as it is in fuel for fires. Endemic European fallow deer — popularised on the plinths of Rhodes' former colossus statue — roam its pine and cypress forests.
How many will be left when the embers have cooled?
Ten kilometres due north of the current inferno lies the valley of the butterflies, a 2km ravine lined by rare and medicinal oriental sweetgum trees that host millions of orange, white and brown Panaxia butterflies which swarm like clouds of Spanish flags at a fiesta. The destruction of this Natura 2000 sanctuary would spark another headline for a news cycle, and a loss that can never be made good.
As an environmental journalist in Brussels, this shouldn't surprise me. I am used to traveling to the frontlines of climate breakdown but now they are travelling to me, to all of us and, crazily, still catching us off guard. My daily twitter feed is full of climate cartographs showing the Mediteranean in flame red and ash brown hues. But the graphs' stitch-like plot lines are usually projected into an abstract future with years on axes too small to read.
What's playing out on Rhodes is a real-time process of climatic transition — and perhaps desertification — that we should see coming, again and again.
France, Spain and Ireland were all scorched by wildfires in the Spring, and the warning signs flashed crimson in June, when plumes from Canada's largest ever forest fire reached Europe. The smoke from 160 megatonnes of carbon emissions was literally on the water, and on the horizon.
Last month, the European Environment Agency reported that up to 145,000 people had been killed by extreme weather in Europe over the last 40 years, 85 percent of them by heatwaves.
A more detailed EU risk assessment is due out this autumn, possibly as early as October, and officials expect it to pull no punches. The need for strategic, funded, preventative measures in places like Rhodes is self-evident.
But the appetite for climate action is clearly waning at the European Parliament and within the Commission, where one official told me two weeks ago that an overwhelming backlash against the Green Deal was underway.
But Spain, the current council president, faces intransigent domestic opposition from an agribusiness lobby that spurred the Popular Party to turn shrug at the draining of the Donana wetland into an electoral motif.
Fire-fighting cuts due to austerity
More importantly, whatever Brussels says, its actions will speak louder. Greece's former finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, told me two years ago that in negotiations with 'the troika' in 2015, two commission officials threatened to effectively shut down the country's banking system if it re-hired 2,000 firefighters and doctors. An austerity-based decision in 2011 had axed 20 percent of the firefighters budget.
Varoufakis said the officials told him: "If you hire one more fire brigade man or woman, we will consider this casus belli." The commission denies this claim, which Varoufakis has since repeated.
Around 100 people died in blazes around Athens in 2018. The chief of Greece's firefighting federation said that 5,000 more firefighters were needed, after yet another deadly fire season in 2021,
The increased fires are in line with IPCC predictions and the lackadaisical response — to the extent that the UK government seems more keen to reduce its climate commitments than its citizens' exposure to fire risk in Rhodes — underlines how package tourists themselves may become sacrificial lambs on the altar of our fossil fuel economy. Ironically, the increased visibility of their suffering could deal a savage blow to future July/August bookings in the Med that the UK government presumably wishes to prevent.
If governments will not curb emissions and protect their citizens, sadly, that may be one of the few positives to come out of this latest climate tragedy.
Image by Germán & Co/ShutterstockTrump charged with seeking to delete security footage in documents case
Unsealed indictment charges second aide at Mar-a-Lago and brings new counts against the former president and longtime valet Walt Nauta
TWP by Devlin Barrett, Perry Stein, Spencer S. Hsu and Josh Dawsey, July 27, 2023 Prosecutors announced additional charges against Donald Trump on Thursday in his alleged hoarding and hiding of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, accusing the former president and a newly indicted aide of trying to keep security camera footage from being reviewed by investigators and bringing the number of total federal charges against Trump to 40.
Trump already faced 31 counts of illegally retaining national defense information, but federal prosecutors led by special counsel Jack Smith have added a 32nd to the list. That count centers on a now-infamous conversation Trump allegedly had at his golf club and summer residence in Bedminster, N.J., in July 2021, focused on what has been described by others as a secret military document concerning Iran.
In that conversation, which was recorded, Trump said: “As president I could have declassified it. … Now I can’t, you know, but this is still secret.”
The new indictment also levels accusations of a broader effort by Trump and some of those around him to cover their tracks as the FBI sought to retrieve highly classified documents kept at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s home and private club, long after his presidency ended. The indictment charges that Trump and two aides, Waltine “Walt” Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira, requested that another Trump employee “delete security camera footage at the Mar-a-Lago Club to prevent the footage from being provided to a federal grand jury.”
While Trump has publicly claimed he was happy to hand over the footage in response to a grand jury subpoena, others close to him have said he was upset about it, and the indictment suggests a scramble among his aides soon after they received the demand for the footage. Prosecutors say that Nauta, Trump’s longtime valet, changed plans to travel with Trump to Illinois around the time the subpoena was sent, instead traveling to Florida to talk to other Trump employees about the camera footage. He appeared to try to keep the reason for the trip to Mar-a-Lago under wraps, the indictment says, telling others he was going there for different reasons.
Nauta was initially indicted alongside the former president in the documents case in June, accused of helping him mislead investigators as they sought to retrieve all of the classified material in Trump’s possession.
Both Trump and Nauta have pleaded not guilty to the charges in that initial indictment. The federal judge overseeing the case in Fort Pierce, Fla., has set the trial to begin in May, though it is not uncommon for such schedules to be delayed to deal with pretrial disputes and issues.
In audio recording, Trump says he did not declassify secret Iran documents
People familiar with the investigation have told The Washington Post that Smith’s team repeatedly pressed De Oliveira to explain his actions from June and July 2022, when he was recorded helping Nauta move boxes around Mar-a-Lago and allegedly had conversations with others about security camera footage. The people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss secret grand jury proceedings, have said investigators grew increasingly skeptical of De Oliveira’s answers as the investigation proceeded.
De Oliveira’s attorney, John Irving, declined to comment Thursday evening. De Oliveira has worked for Trump for nearly 20 years, beginning as a car valet and becoming a property manager in January 2022. As the investigation progressed, he has told colleagues, his phone was seized. He has continued to work at Mar-a-Lago since the initial charges against Trump and Nauta were filed.
Trump spokesman Steven Cheung called the charges unveiled Thursday “a continued desperate and flailing attempt” to harass the former president — who is again seeking the GOP nomination for the White House — and those around him. A lawyer for Nauta declined to comment on the new charges against his client.
News round-up, July 28, 2023
The Personality of the Day
“Abramovich” journeyed 858 km from the Saratov catacombs to Kremlin's champagne glasses.
The enigmatic figure, Roman Abramovich, is well-known for his business and survival skills. His journey to success began long before that. In the late 1990s, Abramovich embraced his elusive persona, likened to that of a —-silver Siberian wolf—-. He skillfully evaded the spotlight, refusing to be photographed and instead represented through rough illustrations. So legendary was his secrecy that a reward of 1 million roubles was offered for a genuine photograph of him. Eventually, a blurry image surfaced, catapulting Abramovich into fame.
Beneath his mysterious facade, Abramovich artfully cultivated influential alliances. Notably, he formed a close bond with Tatyana Dyachenko, the daughter of President Boris Yeltsin. This relationship not only facilitated his ascension in Russian politics but also in society at large. With such powerful connections and his own shrewdness, Abramovich became a significant figure in the Russian elite.
Source: Le MondeMost read…
Insight: Obscure traders ship half Russia's oil exports to India, China after sanctions
To export crude oil to Asia, Moscow relies on little-known trading companies. According to data gathered from conversations with ten trading sources, analysis from Kpler, and non-public information from Refinitiv and shipping companies, 40 intermediaries were involved in Russian oil trading between March and June.
BY DMITRY ZHDANNIKOV AND NIDHI VERMA/EDITIONS BY GERMÁN & CO, JULY 27, 2023 Biden’s ‘Made in America’ Pledge Collides With His Climate Goals
Companies, lawmakers are trying to influence how the government gives out billions in subsidies
WSJ BY ANDREW DUEHREN, JULY 26, 2023 Trump needed $225 million. A little-known bank came to the rescue.
Gregory Garrabrants, a GOP donor and CEO of online Axos Bank, approved the loans after the former president’s main lender had cut ties.
THE WASHINGTON POST BY MICHAEL KRANISH, JULY 27, 2023 Roman Abramovich the 'invisible man,' a business and survival specialist
One million roubles for a photograph of him... A blurry photo eventually emerged, making Abramovich famous...
BY LUCAS MINISINI (LONDON, NEW YORK, TEL AVIV, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT), BENOÎT VITKINE (MOSCOW, CORRESPONDENT) AND AURELIANO TONET (LONDON, ROME, TEL AVIV, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT), PUBLISHED YESTERDAY OF 26 OF JULY, 2023. US power regulator to weigh plans to speed up green energy connection
REUTERS BY VALERIE VOLCOVICI AND NICHOLA GROOM, JULY 27, 2023 Image by Germán & CoWe reached a new record of 1800 visitors in the United States yesterday, surpassing 1600 visitors daily. We were able to reach this milestone without any external assistance (booster), relying completely on our dedication, objectivity, and hard work..
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We reached a new record of 1800 visitors in the United States yesterday, surpassing 1600 visitors daily. We were able to reach this milestone without any external assistance (booster), relying completely on our dedication, objectivity, and hard work.. 〰️
The Personality of the Day
“Abramovich” journeyed 858 km from the Saratov catacombs to Kremlin's champagne glasses.
The enigmatic figure, Roman Abramovich, is well-known for his business and survival skills. His journey to success began long before that. In the late 1990s, Abramovich embraced his elusive persona, likened to that of a —-silver Siberian wolf—-. He skillfully evaded the spotlight, refusing to be photographed and instead represented through rough illustrations. So legendary was his secrecy that a reward of 1 million roubles was offered for a genuine photograph of him. Eventually, a blurry image surfaced, catapulting Abramovich into fame.
Beneath his mysterious facade, Abramovich artfully cultivated influential alliances. Notably, he formed a close bond with Tatyana Dyachenko, the daughter of President Boris Yeltsin. This relationship not only facilitated his ascension in Russian politics but also in society at large. With such powerful connections and his own shrewdness, Abramovich became a significant figure in the Russian elite.
Most read…
Insight: Obscure traders ship half Russia's oil exports to India, China after sanctions
To export crude oil to Asia, Moscow relies on little-known trading companies. According to data gathered from conversations with ten trading sources, analysis from Kpler, and non-public information from Refinitiv and shipping companies, 40 intermediaries were involved in Russian oil trading between March and June.
By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Nidhi Verma/Editions by Germán & Co, July 27, 2023Biden’s ‘Made in America’ Pledge Collides With His Climate Goals
Companies, lawmakers are trying to influence how the government gives out billions in subsidies
WSJ by Andrew Duehren, July 26, 2023 Trump needed $225 million. A little-known bank came to the rescue.
Gregory Garrabrants, a GOP donor and CEO of online Axos Bank, approved the loans after the former president’s main lender had cut ties.
The Washington Post by Michael Kranish, July 27, 2023 Roman Abramovich the 'invisible man,' a business and survival specialist
One million roubles for a photograph of him... A blurry photo eventually emerged, making Abramovich famous...
By Lucas Minisini (London, New York, Tel Aviv, special correspondent), Benoît Vitkine (Moscow, correspondent) and Aureliano Tonet (London, Rome, Tel Aviv, special correspondent), Published yesterday of 26 of July, 2023.US power regulator to weigh plans to speed up green energy connection
Reuters by Valerie Volcovici and Nichola Groom, July 27, 2023Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES He's responsible for creating social responsibility and sustainability at AES
Andrés Gluski is the leader who introduced corporate social responsibility as a priority for AES. The result of these efforts has been extraordinary: AES was named one of the "World's Most Ethical Companies" by the Ethisphere Institute and has received this distinction for four consecutive years. There is nothing more to say about his leadership; it is commendable. In addition, he set goals for the company that culminated in the inclusion of the company in the North American Dow Jones Sustainability Index.
Source: Moneyinc.com
Image: Word "Oil" and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationInsight: Obscure traders ship half Russia's oil exports to India, China after sanctions
To export crude oil to Asia, Moscow relies on little-known trading companies. According to data gathered from conversations with ten trading sources, analysis from Kpler, and non-public information from Refinitiv and shipping companies, 40 intermediaries were involved in Russian oil trading between March and June.
REUTERS By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Nidhi Verma/Editions by Germán & Co, July 27, 2023MOSCOW/LONDON/NEW DELHI, July 27 (Reuters) - A Liberian-flagged oil tanker set sail in May from Russia's Ust-Luga port carrying crude on behalf of a little-known trading company based in Hong Kong. Before the ship had even reached its destination in India, the cargo changed hands.
The new owner of the 100,000 tonnes of Urals crude carried on the Leopard I was a similarly low-profile outfit, Guron Trading, also based in Hong Kong, according two trading sources.
The number of little-known trading firms relied on by Moscow to export large volumes of crude exports to Asia has mushroomed in recent months, since sanctions over the Ukraine war led major oil firms and commodity houses to withdraw from business with producers in Russia, reporting by Reuters has found.At least 40 middlemen, including companies with no prior record of involvement in the business, handled Russian oil trading between March and June, according to a Reuters tally after speaking to 10 trading sources along with analysts from think-tank Kpler and analysing data from Refinitiv and the non-public books of shipping companies.
The new players have shipped at least half of Russia’s overall crude and refined products exports of 6-8 million barrels per day (bpd) on average this year, turning the little-known companies collectively into some of the world's largest oil traders, according to Reuters calculations based on private information from the 10 trading sources and Eikon data.
The companies began appearing after Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a special military operation, with as many as 30 middlemen involved in trades over the course of last year, according to the tally.
The network marks a major departure from the handful of well-established oil majors such as BP and Shell and top trading houses including Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura and Gunvor that handled Russian crude and oil products for decades.
There is no suggestion the trades break sanctions, although they may make it difficult for sanctions enforcement agencies in Europe and the United States to track Russian oil transactions and prices.
Earlier this month, Urals prices jumped above a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian exports imposed by the Group of Seven nations, Australia and the European Union from Dec. 5 that was intended to punish firms involved in any trade above that level.
When prices are above the cap, the rapidly changing trading network could make it hard to identify those involved in moving the oil, five traders involved in handling Russian oil said.
The reporting shows that in May, Russia, one of the world's top three oil producers, supplied record volumes to China and India, which have not imposed sanctions on Moscow and became its leading buyers after sanctions by Europe, the United States and other powers limited their own purchases.
Neither Guron Trading or Bellatrix Energy, the company that originally chartered the Leopard I and bought the cargo from Russian oil company Rosneft, responded to requests for comment. Rosneft did not respond to questions.
The websites for Guron Trading and Bellatrix Energy appeared to have been taken down recently. Both were online prior to the companies being contacted by Reuters.
TRADING AT SEA
Along with the emergence of the new companies, once rare multiple trades while ships are at sea have become widespread, the five sources involved in Russian oil trading said. The sources described at least 10 such trades, which happen with little public documentation and aim to make Russia's oil exports more difficult to track, they said.
One buyer of Russian oil likened the rise and fall of the new traders to the brief careers of TikTok stars, while another trader described a "kaleidoscope" of new players. In some cases, a single cargo will pass through at least three traders, the oil buyer said.
Under the previous system, oil cargoes were generally handled by one well-known trader from source to destination.
Reuters could not establish the ultimate owners of the new trading companies.
The growing network of pop-up traders overlaps with a booming market for old oil tankers supplied by new companies to carry Russian oil that Western shippers are avoiding.
The new trading network and practices raise financial risks for Russian oil companies dealing with unknown entities with limited credit history.
Some of the companies that emerged as major traders of Russian oil last year, such as Coral Energy and Everest Energy, have since exited the business.
Responding to questions from Reuters, both denied they left the trade because of sanctions risks. Everest said "it was a strategic business decision based on various factors specific to our company". Coral said "we made a decision to source outside of Russia thanks to the diversified footprint in MENA region'.
The U.S. Treasury department's sanctions enforcement agency, OFAC, and its EU and UK counterparts did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
In July, a U.S. Treasury official said sanctions were designed to keep Russian oil in the market, dampening prices for consumers while limiting oil revenues Moscow uses to finance the war in Ukraine.
"We recognise that (sanctions on Russia are) going to change the shape and structure of the Russian oil markets," the official told reporters.
The official also said Washington was unconcerned that sanctions were resulting in more trades in currencies other than the dollar - after a rise in the use of yuan and UAE dirham to settle Russian oil transactions as Moscow finds itself shut out from international banks.
MULTI-YEAR EXPORT HIGH
Owned and operated by the Dubai-based Leopard I Shipping, the Leopard I arrived at Visakhapatnam port on June 15, where Indian refiner Hindustan Petroleum took delivery of the cargo from Guron Trading, data from the two trading sources showed.
Hindustan Petroleum didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
The emerging companies have played a key role in keeping Russia's oil exports moving, and even growing, as its leading crude producers Rosneft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft diverted shipments to India and China.
Helped by this network, Russian oil exports from all sea ports reached a multi-year high in April and May at nearly 4 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations based on polling of 10 traders as well as Russian port loading programmes and Refinitiv data.
In May, Russian seaborne oil supplies to India, which was a rare buyer of Russian oil before the war, reached a record of 1.95 million bpd while China imported 2.29 million bpd.
Only Lukoil continues to market oil through its trading division - Litasco - which it relocated to Dubai from Geneva. The other companies sell to the new trading firms, which are mostly registered in China, Singapore, Hong Kong or Dubai, according to the five sources and local public company registers.
From March to June, the top traders who bought oil from Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft included Dubai-based Petroruss, Hong Kong registered Guron Trading, Bellatrix Energy and Covart Energy, Dubai-registered Voliton, Demex Trading, Nestor Trading, Orion Energy and Singapore-headquartered Patera, according to the five traders, shipping data and company registers.
Some companies, such as Voliton, had no websites or contact numbers that Reuters could find. None of the others responded to requests for comments.
Media representatives for Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft didn't answer Reuters requests for comment.
PAYMENT DELAYS
The strategy brings risk for Russian producers. Venezuela, which uses a similar system to move oil, has suffered payment problems, fraud and losses.
While there have been no reports to date of non-payment, delays have caused some problems, the five traders involved in the Russian oil business said.Russian exporters waited between three to five months to get paid after their cargoes sailed, the sources said. Normally, buyers pay for the cargoes about a month after the ship sails, they said.
One source said such delays created a fiscal gap for exporters who were having to pay taxes to the Russian state before even being paid for their oil.
A source with one major Russian oil company said his company was prepared to deal with higher credit risks from buyers for the sake of having stable and rising oil exports.
"Last year, we were facing output cuts as marketing was bad. Now it's alright – we have buyers, we have sales," the source said.
Reporting by Reuters in MOSCOW, Dmitry Zhdannikov in LONDON and Nidhi Verma in NEW DELHI. Additional reporting by Timothy Gardner in Washington and Laura Sanicola in New York; Editing by Simon Webb and Frank Jack Daniel
Image by Germán & Co via ShutterstockBiden’s ‘Made in America’ Pledge Collides With His Climate Goals
Companies, lawmakers are trying to influence how the government gives out billions in subsidies
WSJ by Andrew Duehren, July 26, 2023 WASHINGTON—The Biden administration’s plans to quickly reduce carbon emissions are colliding with its pledge to revitalize manufacturing in the U.S.
The Inflation Reduction Act unleashed a gusher of tax breaks and credits for producing clean energy, purchasing electric vehicles and developing new low-carbon technology. Many of the incentives require companies to source materials for the projects from the U.S., setting off a lobbying campaign to shape how the Biden administration defines “made in America.”
The debate pits some U.S. manufacturers and lawmakers, who want to strictly enforce the law’s requirements that many parts and materials come from the U.S., against automakers and foreign allies who warn that could make it more expensive to deploy technology lowering carbon emissions.
In the latest salvo, a group of the largest steelmakers in the U.S., as well as the United Steelworkers union, criticized the Treasury Department’s proposed approach to a bonus tax credit for clean-energy projects that rely largely on U.S.-made metal and components.
They argue that the department’s treatment of a key component of solar panels would let firms use steel from abroad and still qualify for the 10% credit, which would be available on top of other subsidies for building solar and wind farms.
President Biden has courted unions such as the United Steelworkers. PHOTO: JEFF SWENSEN/GETTY IMAGES
“If the current Guidance were to be made final, it would significantly damage U.S. domestic steel producers, putting at risk 1.5 million tons of production and jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions of Americans who depend on our industry,” wrote the union and the companies, including U.S. Steel and Nucor.
The group sent the letter, which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal, to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Daniel Werfel on Tuesday.
“We’re going to refine and look at the comments that we get, but directionally, we’re seeing firms make decisions to make investments in the United States to get access to the domestic-content boost,” Wally Adeyemo, deputy Treasury secretary, said.
China is the dominant supplier of many clean-energy products, as well as the largest global producer of steel by far. The Biden administration is seeking to reduce U.S. dependence on China in key areas, but it has at times found its goals at odds as it irons out the details of tax incentives offered under the IRA.
President Biden has made rebuilding American manufacturing a central talking point in his re-election bid. He has courted unions such as the United Steelworkers, who endorsed him in 2020, and he has tried to win back rank-and-file union members who moved toward the Republican Party in recent years.
At the same time, lowering carbon emissions is another priority for the Biden administration. Imports from China are often cheaper for companies trying to stand up new clean-energy facilities in the U.S. The domestic-sourcing rules have also unnerved allies in Europe and Asia, who say the subsidies for U.S.-made components will hurt their products.
“There’s a general theme where they are clearly trying to balance the two goals but the leaning has historically been towards decarbonization,” said Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners.
At issue for the steel industry is the Treasury Department’s classification of photovoltaic trackers, which rotate solar panels so they follow the sun’s movement over the course of the day. In guidance released in May, the department said those trackers were a “manufactured product,” meaning they could include foreign metals and still potentially qualify for the bonus credit.
The steelmakers want the metal used to build the trackers to instead be deemed as “iron and steel products,” which must come from the U.S. in order for the project to be eligible for the incentive.
“Categorization of tracking systems as manufactured products would permit many of the structural steel components of new solar projects in the U.S. to be imported from China,” the companies said.
The Solar Energy Industries Association, which represents companies that develop solar farms, praised Treasury’s guidance when it was released in May. The group’s CEO said Treasury’s approach would “spark a flood of investment in American-made clean energy equipment and components.”
Other battles over IRA subsidies have involved electric vehicles. For example, for consumers to get the full $7,500 tax credit to buy an EV, much of the minerals in its battery must come from the U.S. or a country with a free-trade agreement with the U.S.
Many close allies, however, don’t have traditional free-trade agreements with the U.S. To get around that, administration officials crafted a special deal with Japan for minerals used in clean-energy technologies, and they are in talks with others about similar arrangements.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), a centrist whose support was critical to the passage of the climate law, has repeatedly lambasted the Treasury Department’s implementation of the electric-vehicle tax credit, including criticizing its decision to consider Japan a free-trade partner.
Automakers, including Ford Motor, have pushed for looser interpretations, including a requirement that none of an EV battery’s minerals or components be linked to a “foreign entity of concern,” which could potentially include any Chinese company. Ford has joined with China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology to build a battery factory in Michigan.
Yellen said in a recent interview that the climate law’s goals of reducing emissions and boosting domestic production can be difficult to navigate.
“We want to see a lot of electric vehicles be on the road,” she said. “But having more resilient supply chains is also clearly a goal of the legislation, and sometimes the two things do come into tension.”
The AES Corporation's Andes Solar IIb
The facility's start-up in the region of Antofagasta, Chile, represents a —-unique—- milestone in the renewable energy sector. With an installed capacity of 180 MW and 112 MW of five-hour duration energy storage, this facility is now the largest system of its kind in Latin America. The Andes Solar IIb facility's capacity comprises 170 MW of bifacial solar panels and 10 MW of 5B's Maverick technology.
The construction of this facility utilized Maverick technology and pre-made modular components, resulting in a 33% reduction in installation time compared to other traditional solar systems. Adding Andes Solar IIb to AES Andes brings the total number of solar facilities managed in the Antofagasta region to 429 MW.
Reaffirming its commitment to sustainable and efficient power generation, AES Corporation continues to make significant strides in the renewable energy sector.
Source media editing by Germán & CoTrump needed $225 million. A little-known bank came to the rescue.
Gregory Garrabrants, a GOP donor and CEO of online Axos Bank, approved the loans after the former president’s main lender had cut ties.
The Washington Post by Michael Kranish, July 27, 2023 Gregory Garrabrants is president and CEO of Axos Bank, which made two loans worth $225 million to Donald Trump in 2022 after the former president's main lender and several of his banks had cut ties with him. (Sandy Huffaker)
SAN DIEGO — As Donald Trump considered another White House run last year, his company’s finances were at risk of spiraling into crisis.
The former president’s longtime lender and several banks with his deposits had cut ties in the days around the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by his supporters, at a time when Trump had hundreds of millions in loans coming due. In February 2022, the accounting firm that had worked for him for two decades dropped Trump and advised against relying on his “statement of financial condition,” a metric banks use to evaluate the risks of a loan.
Unless he found a new lender, Trump’s business empire could have been in jeopardy.
Then a new partner came to the rescue: A little known, online-only financial firm headquartered in a suburban San Diego office park.
Axos Bank, formerly known as Bank of Internet USA, had grown from one of the first digital banks into a profitable, publicly traded company in part by specializing in loans to borrowers other banks had shied away from — all while navigating federal regulator scrutiny over its internal operations and a congressional hearing that cited its involvement in high interest rates on some loans.
One day after the warning by Trump’s accounting firm became public, Axos’s blunt-spoken president and CEO — a Republican donor named Gregory Garrabrants — signed off on a $100 million loan for Trump Tower, the 58-story Manhattan skyscraper that had long been Trump’s home and base of operations, according to the bank.
Three months later, Garrabrants approved a second deal that provided $125 million for Trump’s Doral resort, a sprawling golf course complex in Miami-Dade County he had owned since 2012. Axos also financed part of a loan that helped facilitate the $375 million purchase of Trump’s D.C. hotel by a group of investors.
The Axos loans to Trump were vital to stabilizing his post-presidential finances and enabling him to mount the campaign that now has him leading the GOP pack for the 2024 presidential nomination, according to disclosure records, loan documents and financial experts.
“It was crucial … that someone gave him credit or he could have had loans going into foreclosure,” said Bert Ely, a longtime independent banking analyst. “And that was also an important factor for him politically.”
Former president Donald Trump speaks to staff and reporters aboard his airplane on June 10. “I don’t need banks,” Trump said in April, while not mentioning the Axos loans. “I have a lot of cash. I built a great business with my family.” (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
The loans have drawn scrutiny from New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) as part of her broader suit that accuses Trump of “falsifying” records to inflate the value of his properties on financial statements to obtain earlier loans at lower interest rates. Trump “sought to avoid submitting a statement of financial condition” to Axos and instead pushed the bank to calculate his worth, James asserted in the suit, which does not accuse Axos of wrongdoing.
For more than a year, Garrabrants, 51, has refrained from speaking publicly about his decision to approve the loans. But in his first interview about the matter, he told The Washington Post in June at the bank’s headquarters and a telephone follow-up in July that the deals had nothing to do with his Republican politics. He said he made the loans because they will be profitable for his bank, adding that he did not agree with other bankers who stayed away from Trump due to allegations that he had incited the insurrection or concerns about his honesty.
It was “not my job or my role” to judge Trump’s actions, said Garrabrants, who donated $9,600 to support Trump’s 2020 campaign but said he’s never met the former president, dealing instead with Trump’s son Eric, the executive vice president of the Trump Organization.
The $100 million Trump Tower loan was made at a 4.25 percent interest rate and the $125 million loan for the Doral property at a 4.9 percent interest rate, with both maturing in 2032, according to property records. The rates are within the range of commercial loans during that period, according to Federal Reserve data, and came before much of the interest rate spike occurred last year; public records do not say whether the rates will change over the life of the loan, which analysts said makes it difficult to directly compare them to other commercial loans.
Garrabrants declined to discuss some details of the loans, including the long-term interest rate or how they are secured, while saying they were done on “market terms.” The Trump loans, which represent about 1 percent of the bank’s $20 billion in assets, are structured to guarantee profits for Axos, Garrabrants said.
“It wouldn’t matter if I was friends with someone, I’m not going to make a loan that’s no good,” he said. “I don’t like anyone that much.”
When he left the White House, Trump’s businesses faced head winds. Trump Tower was put on a “watch list,” an indication of concern about the ability to repay a loan as its occupancy rate fell, according to a Wells Fargo analysis reported by Bloomberg. (Joe Lamberti for The Washington Post)
As president, Trump tried to head off claims of potential conflicts of interest with his business by handing control of the family firm to his son and pledging to avoid deals with foreign entities. But those rules no longer apply post-presidency, and Trump and his family have struck up significant business with Saudi Arabia and other partners abroad in the last two years.
If Trump returns to the White House, Axos could face intensifying scrutiny from Democratic lawmakers about the loan terms, his relationship with the bank and its treatment by regulators, observers said.
In his interview with The Post, Garrabrants rejected James’s claims that Trump had sought to avoid providing certain financial information when applying for Axos loans, saying he received all relevant details he needed to review the deals.
“He never refused any information we asked for,” Garrabrants said. “We asked for a series of items in a specific format … and he delivered the items in the specific format we asked for.”
Garrabrants declined to comment when asked if he or the bank had been contacted by anyone from James’s office regarding her case against Trump.
Trump and his spokesman did not respond to a request for comment. He has denied James’s allegations and described her lawsuit as a political attack. The former president has recently downplayed the importance of loans to his finances.
“I don’t need banks,” Trump said in April, while not mentioning the Axos loans. “I have a lot of cash. I built a great business with my family.”
Edward Hemmelgarn, who closely follows Axos as president of Shaker Investments, which invests in the bank, said it likely was able to secure the loans with much stiffer terms than Trump usually accepts because of his urgent need for a lender.
“I assume the only reason Donald Trump was willing to put up with it is because no one else was willing to make a loan,” Hemmelgarn said, adding, “I am assuming the bank has been very careful about this because of the high profile of Donald Trump.”
‘It was the banks’ problem’
Trump had a long history of relying on banks for hefty loans to shore up his business, shifting the risk to others as much as possible.
While portraying himself as a business genius, Trump filed six corporate bankruptcies. He created a publicly traded company that eventually saw its share price tumble from $36 to 17 cents. By the early 1990s, long before he got into politics or starred on reality TV, Trump faced numerous financial crises as he tried to keep afloat a New York-based real estate empire.
So when he first came to Deutsche Bank in the 1990s seeking massive loans, a managing director at the bank, Mike Offit, knew it was a risk.
“He’d had problems with a bunch of properties,” Offit recalled in an interview. “Your immediate response is, 'God, why would I want to get involved in that?’”
But after examining a proposed $125 million loan on a New York City office building and a separate deal on a condominium project, Offit calculated that the reward vastly outweighed the risk and signed off.
“You look at the property and if the property is great and meets the criteria for making a loan, absent some horrific reason not to, you make it because that’s how you make money,” he said. The deal was so favorable that Offit concluded “I can make 10 times the normal profit” at a low risk.
Donald Trump, center, and George Ditomassi, right, president of Milton Bradley, stand behind the board game, “Trump, The Game,” at a news conference in New York on Feb. 7, 1989. (Mario Suriani/AP)
Both deals proved hugely profitable for the bank, said Offit, who left Deutsche in 1999. With Deutsche on his side, Trump rebuilt his brand and played the starring role in “The Apprentice,” the NBC series that presented precisely the titan image he wanted the world to see.
But the relationship soured after Offit left Deutsche and the 2008 financial crisis crashed real estate values. Facing difficulties repaying a massive loan on a 92-story Chicago tower, Trump sued Deutsche Bank by claiming it helped to cause the recession, and the bank countersued, noting that Trump had written in a book of his about his loans, “I figured it was the banks’ problem, not mine. What the hell did I care?”
After resolving the suit, Trump later borrowed another $170 million from Deutsche for his D.C. hotel. But the bank, which declined to comment for this story, finally refused his request for another $50 million in 2016, citing his presidential run as posing “an unacceptable level of reputation risk.”
And after Trump sought reelection in 2020, Deutsche cut ties with him, citing his company’s failure to answer the bank’s questions about James’s investigation — a decision made public after the Jan. 6 attack.
Signature Bank, where Trump had deposits, announced shortly after Jan. 6 that it was closing his account and urged Trump to resign, according to an archived version of its website. Two other banks where Trump held deposits also closed his accounts after the attack on the Capitol, The Post reported.
As he left the White House, Trump’s businesses also faced head winds. Trump Tower was put on a “watch list,” an indication of concern about the ability to repay a loan as its occupancy rate fell, according to a Wells Fargo analysis reported by Bloomberg. His Doral resort, meanwhile, had seen its revenue plummet by more than 40 percent in 2020, according to Forbes.
By February 2022, when his accounting firm, Mazars, issued its warning about Trump’s financial statements and ended its relationship with him, the former president’s family company faced having to repay more than $300 million to Deutsche and $55 million to another bank, according to Trump’s financial disclosure and other public records.
Failing to pay, in the worst case scenario, could have led to lawsuits and foreclosures.
Growing scrutiny into practices
As Trump searched for a new lender in the months after Jan. 6. A broker came to an Axos official with a proposal: giving Trump a new $100 million loan on Trump Tower.
Unlike many other bankers, Garrabrants was not put off by the risk. That’s how he’d made his career.
A former attorney who had clerked for a Republican-appointed federal judge, Garrabrants was a senior vice president of IndyMac bank before it failed during the 2008 housing collapse. He told the Los Angeles Business Journal that “they got caught on the wrong side of the tsunami,” leading the bank to be undercapitalized, a lesson that would guide his career. He said his role at IndyMac was in a division unrelated to the problems that led to the failure.
Garrabrants was appointed CEO and president of Bank of Internet in October 2007, helping boost the decade-old bank into a formidable institution by continuing to forego storefront locations and leaning into a lower cost, online-only operation. But Garrabrants’s approach drew intensifying scrutiny.
A former attorney who had clerked for a Republican-appointed federal judge, Garrabrants was a senior vice president of IndyMac bank before it failed during the 2008 housing collapse. He said his role at IndyMac was in a division unrelated to the problems that led to the failure. (Sandy Huffaker for The Washington Post)
In 2016, the Houston Municipal Pension System filed a shareholder suit alleging in part that years earlier the bank and Garrabrants were “routinely overriding … internal controls.” The suit, which echoed some allegations in a lawsuit filed by a former Axos auditor, said the bank “issued loans to foreign nationals who had criminal or suspicious background” and claimed Garrabrants had threatened to “destroy” an ex-employee if they shared damaging information. A lawyer for the pension system declined to comment.
The bank denied the allegations, saying it had never revised a financial statement, had received “clean audits” and won approvals from regulators. Last year it settled the case for $14 million without admitting wrongdoing, according to court filings and the bank. Garrabrants said in the interview that the bank’s insurance company paid the settlement, which he said was less than the potential cost of litigation.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Treasury Department also opened probes into matters related to the bank’s practices, according to public documents; both were closed without charges.
After the SEC closed its probe in 2017, Garrabrants’s bank purchased an interest in a $57 million loan to Fortress Investment Group, which had backed a project linked to the family firm of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and top White House adviser, according to the bank and contemporaneous media reports. Asked by reporters at the time about whether there was any connection between the loan and the SEC’s decision, Garrabrants described the claim as a “tin-hat conspiracy.” The SEC did not respond to a request for comment.
Garrabrants told The Post that it was not a loan to Jared Kushner or the family company directly, and that he didn’t talk at the time to Kushner. A Kushner spokeswoman, asked via email for comment, said in a statement that “Jared never spoke to Axos Bank, Bank of the Internet, or the SEC about any of this. He had no knowledge of this matter until this email.” Fortress did not respond to a request for comment.
One of Axos Bank's branches is in San Diego. The bank, formerly known as Bank of Internet USA, was one of the first digital banks. (Sandy Huffaker for The Washington Post)
Axos practices also drew scrutiny in a 2021 hearing where Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said the bank had evaded a state rate cap by partnering with a firm that charged a family business 92 percent interest. Garrabrants said in The Post interview that the bank is no longer involved in such loans.
As the bank grew, Garrabrants became one of the best-compensated executives in the industry. Garrabrants’s 2018 compensation package had the potential to reach as much as $34.4 million, due in part to performance awards, the Los Angeles Times reported. When the pandemic hit in 2020, digital-only Axos was well-positioned to pick up customers, and its customer base grew exponentially.
Garrabrants, meanwhile, consistently contributed to Republican candidates, though he was not initially a Trump donor. After backing Mitt Romney and Ted Cruz, respectively, in the 2012 and 2016 presidential cycles, he backed Trump in 2020 as well as making contributions to the Republican Party and other GOP candidates, totaling about $66,000 between 2012 and 2022, according to filings.
“I’m a Republican,” Garrabrants said. “I’m not particularly politically active. But you can look at my political leanings from my donations.”
While the bank continued to be little known to the general public, it was gaining notice as a place where big borrowers who faced pushback from mainstream banks could find a willing lender — albeit sometimes at a higher interest rate and stiffer terms. Garrabrants said the image was unfair, stressing that the bank had specialized in large single-family loans to individuals with complex finances.
If any borrower had complex finances, it was Trump.
A willing lender
As Garrabrants pondered whether to loan hundreds of millions of dollars to the former president, he decided to personally investigate the risks.
In early 2022, Garrabrants met Eric Trump for the first time, and the pair went for a tour of Trump Tower. The bank CEO said his due diligence led him from upper-floor offices to the bowels of the building, where he even poked around the mechanical room.
He was impressed. “I walked the building and went through each individual plan, went through some of the underlying data. I walked the neighborhood, looked at other projects in that area, went through the lease,” Garrabrants said, noting the mechanical room was “clean as a whistle.”
Police officers stand outside Trump Tower in New York in March. (Jeenah Moon for The Washington Post)
Garrabrants personally signed off on the $100 million loan, he said. James, in her suit against Trump said the Trump Organization in February 2022 pushed the bank to “leave it to the lender” to determine his worth, rather than submitting the same kind of “statement of financial condition” he had provided for prior loans.
Three months later, Garrabrants authorized the $125 million loan to Trump for his Doral property. Unlike Trump Tower, Garrabrants was familiar with Doral after attending financial conferences there, he said.
While banks are required to obtain a company’s financial statement before making a loan, there is no industry-wide standard document and it is up to each institution to determine how to collect the information, according to Kyle Welch, an associate professor of accounting at George Washington University.
Garrabrants told The Post his bank had verified Trump’s information by its own methodology and was at the head of the line for repayment. He also discounted the value of statements of financial condition in general, saying, “I’ve never run into a borrower who thinks their property is worth what I think it’s worth.”
Eric Trump did not respond to an interview request, instead sending a statement to The Post: “Axos is an amazing bank and it is a pleasure to work with them.”
Garrabrants said he was barred for privacy reasons from disclosing certain conditions of the two loans. But he said that in loaning to the former president, he knew it would “be subject to additional scrutiny.”
“So what we wanted to make sure we did was structure the loan in a manner that was even at a higher bar than it normally would be, because I expected that there would be folks who would be interested in it,” he said. He declined to say what higher conditions were imposed.
Axos also played a role in another key deal: the sale of the Trump International Hotel in Washington. The May 11, 2022 purchase of that money-losing property fetched $375 million, much more than analysts had expected, enabling Trump to pay off his $170 million Deutsche Bank loan and make a profit of more than $100 million.
Axos had gotten involved in the deal two months before the closing.
CGI Merchant Group, the buyer of the hotel’s lease, got some of its financing from an investment group called MSD Partners. That group’s investors include computer mogul Michael S. Dell. MSD, which has often done business with Axos, asked the bank to help provide financing for the deal. They signed an agreement on March 1, 2022, MSD said in a statement to The Post. Dell was a passive investor and was not involved in the decision to provide the financing, his spokesman said.
MSD and Axos declined to specify the amount provided by the bank, but the bank is described in property records as having a “senior participation interest” in the loan, meaning it would be repaid ahead of others.
CGI Merchant Group, which partnered with Hilton to relaunch the hotel, did not respond to a request for comment. MSD Partners declined to comment beyond confirming the timing of its participation.
Garrabrants, asked whether the hotel deal could have happened without Axos’s support, responded that he believed it would have occurred regardless because he had to compete with other institutions before closing the deal.
Timely loans bolster net worth
Trump says that his finances have improved from the perilous days after Jan. 6, 2021, according to his latest personal financial disclosure report with the Office of Government Ethics.
Trump claimed in his July report that he has earned more than $1 billion in the past two years, with millions from speaking fees and significant revenue from new business partners — including new ventures tied to Saudi investors. Trump claimed he has paid off three of his four loans from Deutsche Bank, the disclosure said. He also reported earning $159 million from the Doral golf resort, indicating it has recovered from the pandemic lull.
While Trump provided more information than required in the disclosure, his family company is privately held, making it difficult to fully assess his claims of vast wealth.
Axos, meanwhile, has performed better than many other financial institutions. As of June 30, the stock of parent company Axos Financial has grown 2,128 percent since Garrabrant’s appointment in October 2007, compared to the Nasdaq Composite, which has increased 380 percent during that time, the bank said. Nonetheless, its long-term rating was downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service in March, in part due to the bank’s real estate exposure. The stock has dropped from around $61 a share in January 2022 to $47 as of Wednesday, following a broader decline in banks. The Moody’s report did not mention the Trump loans and the company declined to comment on its rating. Garrabrants said that action was part of a broad downgrade of the banking sector and stressed Axos is still “investment-grade rated,” which he said shows the bank is financially solid.
It has been growing steadily in recent years and now is the nation’s 101st-largest bank as other banks have suffered failures — including Signature Bank, which was closed by regulators in March.
Trump’s Axos loans are being repaid on schedule, Garrabrants said.
The civil fraud case instituted by James is scheduled for trial in October, with the state seeking to fine him $250 million and stop him from doing business in New York. Among the state’s allegations is that Trump’s falsifying of statements of financial condition saved him $150 million over a 10-year period in lowered interest costs.
The case could force Trump to reveal more about his finances and how he has obtained his loans. James has included the sale of his D.C. hotel in her complaint, alleging that it was the result of a Deutsche loan “he was able to obtain by using his false and misleading statements.” Trump was deposed by James’s office in April, but the contents so far have not been made public.
Separately, Alvin Bragg (D), the district attorney in New York City, is continuing to investigate a similar financial fraud case but has not decided on whether to file charges.
The James case could also draw more scrutiny, even indirectly, to Trump’s business with Axos. Ely, the banking analyst, said it is inevitable that the Axos loans will be viewed in a political lens, with questions asked about whether a borrower or lender has leverage over the other. In past instances, Trump’s lenders have been drawn into an array of investigations, most recently with Deutsche probed by congressional Democrats.
“Trump is like flypaper,” Ely said. “He draws regulatory attention, and there is reputational risk in that for a bank.”
Offit, the former Deutsche banker who once approved loans for Trump, said the negative publicity would have dissuaded him from getting into business with the former president.
“It’s just not worth it,” said Offit. “At some point, you can’t make enough money.”
But Garrabrants said his job is “not to be politicizing banking … would it really be the case you’d want a society where somebody who was prominent would be denied financial services from any institution? … I think the answer is, ‘No.’”
Asked his views about Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021 — which the former president indicated earlier this month had made him the target of a federal grand jury probe — Garrabrants declined to respond directly, saying, “if I ever decide to run for political office, which I have no intention to do so, but if I do that, I’ll make sure that I am prepared to answer a wide variety of questions about different political events that occur.”
Nor did Garrabrants express concern about Trump’s history of corporate bankruptcies, his lawsuit against Deutsche, or his statement that “what the hell did I care” if banks were repaid.
“All I can say is that, if people don’t pay, I take their stuff,” Garrabrants said. “And I make sure their stuff is worth way, way more than enough to pay me.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Source. Le Monde/Editing by Germán & Co Roman Abramovich the 'invisible man,' a business and survival specialist
One million roubles for a photograph of him... A blurry photo eventually emerged, making Abramovich famous...
Le Monde By Lucas Minisini (London, New York, Tel Aviv, special correspondent), Benoît Vitkine (Moscow, correspondent) and Aureliano Tonet (London, Rome, Tel Aviv, special correspondent), Published yesterday of 26 of July, 2023.Investigation'Roman Abramovich, the most secretive of oligarchs' (3/6). The oligarch managed to survive in the turmoil of the Russian business world and capitalize on all his experiences, including political ones, to bolster his invulnerability.
Roman Abramovich had never revealed his face. He had never let anyone photograph him. In the late 1990s, when his name flooded the Russian media, the young oligarch remained invisible. The press had to commission rough illustrations of the businessman, who ran the oil giant Sibneft, employing tens of thousands of people across the country. "During a lecture the politician Boris Nemtsov delivered at Oxford University in 1998, he was even asked if Abramovich really existed," said Nigel Gould-Davis, a former British diplomat in Russia (2003-2007) and ambassador to Belarus (2007-2009).
Also in 1998, the NTV channel launched a competition for its viewers to debunk conspiracy theories, offering a prize of 1 million roubles (around $2,000) for the very first photo of the enigmatic 30-something. Less than two months later, NTV received a photo, but the man in the picture had a mustache: It wasn't Abramovich. The prize would ultimately be won thanks to a blurry photo, where the tycoon's face, calm eyes, his composed demeanor were barely even discernible. It was enough to make headlines in every paper. He had become a public figure.
Behind the scenes, the businessman had the best allies, and secured a prominent place among the national elite. In 1996, President Boris Yeltsin was re-elected for a second four-year term. Together with Boris Berezovsky, Abramovich had financed part of his campaign, with Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin in charge of gathering the funds. Abramovich began spending entire days in the Kremlin's corridors with Tatyana Dyachenko, the president's daughter. The 36-year-old former Soviet aerospace worker acted as an informal adviser to her father, a role inspired by Claude Chirac's position alongside her father Jacques Chirac, the French president who came to Moscow on an official visit at that time.
'Roman, think of the family'
As Yeltsin's health declined after multiple heart attacks, his youngest daughter asserted herself in the various power struggles. The "tsarina" and"little princess of the Kremlin," as she was nicknamed by the press, consolidated the support of loyal followers, including Alexander Voloshin, the deputy head of the presidential administration, and Valentin Yumashev, Yeltsin's new spokesman, who Dyachenko married in 2001. Yumashev, a journalist and author of the president's memoirs, became friends with Abramovich as soon as they met in 1994, at the home of Boris Gryzlov, Vladimir Putin's future interior minister. "Together with the restaurateur Arkady Novikov, they sometimes cooked shashlik, meat brochettes," said Yuri Feklistov, a photographer who was close to Yumachev. "Valentin introduced him to me as his 'friend Roman, one of the richest in Russia,' in 1997."
In the newspapers owned by banker Vladimir Gusinsky, which were highly critical of the Kremlin, this circle was referred to as "the family." The nickname was a criticism of the petty arrangements of the president and his entourage, suspected of financial embezzlement, while the young democracy was going through a serious economic crisis. Leading figures, including Dyachenko, were accused of taking bribes in return for public contracts.
According to several witnesses from the time, their funds were managed by Abramovich, who excelled as Yeltsin's cash handler. "When he was upset with the president, Alexander Korzhakov, his head of security, would repeat that the family's money had to be taken 'from Abramovich,'" said the photographer Feklistov. In July 1998, a billboard appeared for a few hours on Kutuzov Avenue, in the heart of the Russian capital, before it was taken down. It displayed a photomontage of the oligarch wearing a black suit with his hands crossed and surrounded by coins. In the center of the image, three lines of text stated, seemingly as a provocation: "Roman thinks of the family. The family thinks of Roman."
Just how far did the Yeltsin clan protect the oil tycoon? The highly advantageous terms on which Abramovich's oil company Sibneft was acquired aroused suspicion. How was the oligarch able to win the bidding for this lucrative business with an offer ($100.3 million) almost identical to the starting price ($100 million)? A parliamentary inquiry was opened in 1997. Prosecutor Yuri Skuratov suspected there was a vast corruption operation. A confidential legal document, dating from the 1990s and published by the BBC in March 2022, suggested that the Russian state lost $2.7 billion in the deal, to Abramovich and his two associates, Berezovsky and Badri Patarkatsishvili. According to the BBC, the document says ''The Dept. of Economic Crimes investigators came to the conclusion that if Abramovich could be brought to trial he would have faced accusations of fraud... by an organized criminal group." But the legal proceedings were never launched. They were said to be stopped by none other than Yeltsin. To this day, Abramovich and his lawyers deny the accusations of financial crimes.
Also in Prosecutor Skuratov's sights were banker Alexander Mamut, a close associate of Abramovich; the head of the president's Property Management Department, Pavel Borodin; and his deputy at the time, Vladimir Putin. Did they also take or pay bribes? After a few months, in the spring of 1999, a video recording of Prosecutor Skuratov with two prostitutes was broadcast on the main public TV channel. This kompromat, a Russian word meaning "compromising materials," was authenticated by the highest echelon of the state during a spirited press conference, attended by Putin, who had become head of the Russian Federation's intelligence service, the FSB. The prosecutor was suspended and then lost his job the following year. "This whole thing was obviously political," he explained to the BBC in early 2022. "In my investigations I came very close to the family of Boris Yeltsin."
Parliamentary immunity
Abramovich's activities were also being scrutinized by the courts abroad, as the 1990s drew to a close. In Switzerland, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development began legal proceedings for forgery and fraudulent practices due to the non-repayment of a loan exceeding $17 million to Runicom, one of the entrepreneur's early oil ventures. At the same time, a Bank of New York employee was accused of laundering $7.5 billion from Russia. The oligarch was one of many people mentioned in the case. "Roman was very afraid of the law," said Feklistov, who at the time was the only photographer permitted to follow the "invisible man" on his travels.
To avoid prosecution, what could be better than parliamentary immunity? In 1999, Abramovich obtained this safeguard by getting elected as a representative of Chukotka, in the far east of the country. At the same time, his associate Berezovsky became the representative for a constituency in Karachay-Cherkessia, in the North Caucasus. According to several people Le Monde interviewed, this political ambition provided a cover, to be protected from the law. This view was always dismissed by Abramovich: "It was actually Chukotka that chose me," he told Ekaterina Kuznetsova, a researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in 2002, in the journal Politique Internationale. "I ran in this region's parliamentary elections at the request of the former governor, Alexander Nazarov."
The following year, the oil tycoon coveted the governorship of this "godforsaken country." With just 50,000 inhabitants and a surface area larger than France, the territory, frozen for more than eight months of the year and separated from Alaska by the Bering Strait, embodied all the problems of the former Soviet bloc: poverty, lack of modern infrastructure, alcoholism and corruption. Accompanied by a young, international team from his business empire, including his close friend Evgeny Shvidler, Abramovich led a daring campaign, chartering planes full of food from Moscow to supply local supermarkets. Led by Sergei Kapkov, Russia's future culture minister, the campaign communications were tightly controlled: The candidate prohibited journalists who accompanied him from recording interviews or even jotting down notes.
Benedict Allen, an English explorer who met Abramovich during an expedition among the Indigenous populations of Russia's Far East in late 2000, believed that, despite his rigid methods, he embodied a "new hope" on the ground, symbolic of a "new Russia." "He wanted me to tell him what people really thought of him," said Allen. "People thought he was incorruptible, because he already had so much money." Abramovich won the election with 92% of the vote. He brought in a famous Moscow rock band, Mashina Vremeni, for the handover ceremony and set up a sophisticated but alcohol-free buffet – he doesn't drink.
Across the strait
As soon as he took office, the young decision-maker restored the telephone network and renovated the Soviet-era buildings, repainting their facades in bright colors. He made sure that salaries were paid on time, by bank transfer, to limit the purchase of alcohol in cash. "With his own money, he paid for thousands of children under 14 to go on holidays by the Black Sea," said Allen, who returned to Moscow in a jet loaned by the businessman. "He seemed to have great ambitions for the region." Interviewed by Le Monde, Yumashev, Yeltsin's former spokesman, said that Abramovich made sacrifices himself for this mandate, drawing on his personal funds. "He transformed the territory," said the former journalist. "But it didn't help his business at all, and he dreamed of becoming free again."
Anadyr, the capital of Chukotka, is nicknamed the "city of flying dogs," in reference to its strong winds. Abramovich, who had a house built in the region, returned every six months, no more. Indeed, when asked what his favorite place in the Russian Far East was, he usually answered "the chic suburbs of Moscow," with a smile. The rest of the time, around 80 Sibneft employees managed the day-to-day business. In 2002, in Time, Abramovich confessed that his employees "followed the leader" without question, even though he never revealed his full political strategy to them.
Each trip – almost 10 hours by plane from Moscow – was also an opportunity for him to cross the Bering Strait to Anchorage, Alaska, in the United States. He would fly there by private plane and often stayed in the Captain Cook Hotel presidential suite, on the waterfront. According to Jeff Berliner, a former economic advisor to Tony Knowles, Alaska's Democratic governor (1994-2002), he regained a "sense of normalcy" on American soil, which was unattainable in Russia because of his new-found notoriety.
Abramovich, with his jeans and three-day beard which made him look like a "university lecturer's assistant," was discreet and strolled around without a bodyguard and "had dinner at McDonald's." His goal was symbolic, but also geopolitical: He wanted to bring closer together the Russian and American regions, separated by the Ice Curtain (in reference to the Iron Curtain) during the Cold War.
In both Chukotka and Alaska, Abramovich supplied weapons and ammunition to Indigenous peoples to organize whale hunts. While he had one meeting after another with Alaska's political and business elite, he preferred the oil fields to the top dogs of finance. "We took him to an investment fund that works 21 hours a day, to make use of every time zone," said Berliner. "He turned to me, and said in slightly broken English, 'This is boring! Can we leave?'" Even so, his stays seemed a little too regular for the taste of both American intelligence and the federal law enforcement. Berliner was warned: "'Watch out with Abramovich!' the CIA and FBI people used to tell me, 'He's an influent oligarch.'"
Gifts to Putin
His role as governor strengthened his ties with a key partner, whom he had met thanks to Berezovsky: Putin. Following his role in shaping Sergei Stepashin's government (May 1999-August 1999), Abramovich actively supported the former FSB director's appointment as prime minister on August 9, 1999. "Roman was one of the people I consulted," said Yumashev, who would be an adviser to Putin until 2022. Yumashev also recalled a meeting in the oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky's office, with "around 20 businessmen," including Abramovich. In tune with "the family" made up of Yumashev, Voloshin and Dyachenko, he supported Putin's candidacy in the 2000 presidential election. Putin pledged that the Yeltsin clan would never be prosecuted.
The relationship between the two men first took the form of a yacht, the Olympia, which Abramovich gave to the Russian president at the start of his first term. Measuring 57 meters, with 12 cabins and several decks, it was constructed in the Netherlands for $35 million. Long the subject of wild rumors, this gift was described in detail in an English court in 2010 by whistleblower Dmitry Skarga, a former shipping company executive.
There may have been other gifts along these lines. Also in the early 2000s, Abramovich was said to have suggested to Berezovsky to offer Putin a new boat, for the sum of $10 million per person or thereabouts. Berezovsky reportedly refused outright. As a result of this largesse, by his own admission, the generous Abramovich was regularly invited by the president to the Kremlin, where they discussed Chukotka among other things.
Abramovich openly supported the president's forceful methods, including the constitutional reform passed during the initial months of his term (2000-2004), enabling him to remove regional representatives who did not please him. "Do you really believe that it is possible to reform a state in a totally democratic way? I don't think so!" the oligarch said, clearly unconvinced by the rule of law, in the 2002 interview with the researcher Kuznetsova. At the end of 2004, Putin also approved the law abolishing direct elections to the post of governor. This autocratic shift was not met with the slightest resistance from Abramovich the governor.
Meetings at the Kremlin
Above all, this conciliatory attitude helped the oil tycoon to expand his business empire. In 2002, he wanted to consolidate Sibneft by absorbing Slavneft, another oil company put up for auction by the state. A more substantial Chinese offer displeased the Russian authorities, who began aggressive negotiations. On arrival at Moscow airport, a member of the Chinese delegation was kidnapped. He mysteriously reappeared unscathed as soon as China withdrew its offer, enabling Slavneft to join Abramovich's fold.
Just after that, the oligarch bought 70% of Russian aluminum through a substantial investment in Rusal, alongside businessman Oleg Deripaska, the big winner of the "aluminum wars" – an expression referring to the period lasting several months at the end of the 1990s, when mafias linked to prominent businessmen killed over a hundred people in order to control the production of this metal. Abramovich wasn't overly worried. In the same interview with researcher Kuznetsova, he talked about how Putin's government was "really economically competent, and knows exactly what it has to do." According to him, "The previous team was much weaker and lacked professionalism. What's good for business is good for the state." Then ranked as the second richest individual in Russia and the 49th wealthiest globally, at just 36 years of age, Abramovich often had the chance to talk it over with the main man: He met with Putin every week, in the Kremlin.
Their good relations became all the more visible when the president decided to create a vacuum around him, by targeting several oligarchs from the Yeltsin era. Summoned by the courts on charges of tax fraud, Berezovsky was forced into exile in the UK, where he was granted political asylum in 2003. Through the ORT television channel, which he owned for many years, he had openly criticized Putin's leadership since the Kursk nuclear submarine accident (118 deaths). Berezovsky would never be forgiven for this affront. In London, Abramovich's former ally, who was once dubbed the "Godfather of the Kremlin," would never again travel without his bodyguards.
Khodorkovsky, the other oil oligarch and Russia's richest mogul, admired by the international elite, was not allowed to question the Kremlin's policies either. In August 2003, he signed a deal to merge Yukos – his oil company – with Sibneft, owned by Abramovich, who pocketed around $3 billion in the process. Two months later, the plan was abandoned. Khodorkovsky was arrested at a Siberian airport. Following several controversial trials, he was sentenced to a total of 13 years in prison for tax fraud and money laundering.
Invisibility cloak
In Russia and abroad, these lawsuits against the renowned entrepreneur were regarded as a politically motivated decision bearing Putin's signature. In the hope of securing his release, some Yukos shareholders sought the support of Abramovich, their short-lived partner. They asked Natalia Gevorkyan, author of the book Putin's Prisoner (co-written with Khodorkovsky), to offer him "any deal" if he would help the Yukos boss get out of prison, said the former journalist from the newspaper Kommersant.
During a meeting in London, she said, Abramovich told her that he couldn't help: "If you think Putin is the same person he was when he was elected in 2000, you're wrong. I can't walk into his office, rip off my T-shirt and ask him to release Khodorkovsky..."
Behind this act of allegiance, it was hard not to see the most ancient of ploys: the art of saving one's skin. Abramovich mastered this metis, as the ancient Greeks called the intelligence of survival.
The explorer Allen, who witnessed his adventures in Chukotka, strongly agreed: "To survive in a hostile environment, whether it's the Arctic, the primeval forest or Russian politics, you need a certain kind of mentality. Roman, from what I've observed, is an authentic survivor." Orphaned at the age of three, the oligarch very quickly understood that to survive, there's nothing like disappearing, as if draped in an invisibility cloak. He has applied that lesson from the circles of power to the Arctic Circle.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoUS power regulator to weigh plans to speed up green energy connection
Reuters by Valerie Volcovici and Nichola Groom, July 27, 2023WASHINGTON/LOS ANGELES, July 27 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators on Thursday will vote on proposals to speed up the connection of new energy projects to the electric grid, which could ease a growing backlog of requests from renewable energy developers and deliver more green energy to consumers.
Long waits for transmission interconnection have slowed efforts to ease wild pricing and tight power supply in some markets, and hobbled the deployment of big solar and wind projects that the Biden administration wants built to combat climate change.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) will bring up its proposed improvements for the grid interconnection process at its monthly meeting later on Thursday, according to its agenda. The planned vote comes nearly one year after landmark legislation aimed at boosting renewable energy projects called the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) became law.
FERC Chairman Willie Phillips said in May that the commission could address the problem in part by shifting the approval process from a “first come, first serve” approach to a “first ready” approach – meaning projects that are ready with land rights and permits could move ahead instead of waiting behind developers that are less prepared.
New renewable generators and battery storage resources currently must go through a complex process before they can be connected. That process, which includes multiple studies of how their projects will affect the grid, can be costly and time consuming.
An April analysis by the government-funded Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that the average interconnection process takes five years, more than double the time than in 2008. Meanwhile, last year's passage of the IRA, which offers tax credits for renewable energy, has spurred major investment in new projects.
The interconnection proposal is part of a broader package of reforms FERC is working on in coming months to help hasten the deployment of renewable energy and storage. It is also seeking to finalize proposals this year to improve planning and cost allocation for transmission lines.
News round-up, July 27, 2023
Editorial…
Extraordinary but Dangerous "Phenomenon": "It's So Hot, They're Growing Mangoes in Italy"
The challenges faced by farmers in the Mediterranean offer a glimpse into the difficulties of feeding a planet that is getting warmer. Rising sea levels, dry spells, and heatwaves are causing disruptions to food production in this region, which is known for its unique diet. The recent heatwave has affected food production in many ways, such as causing cows to produce less milk and reducing honey production in Italy. The Ebro Delta, which has around 20,000 hectares of paddy fields, is particularly vulnerable to the warming climate due to rising sea levels and drought. Some farmers are already considering switching to hardier crops, while others are considering seaweed and clams due to the excess salt in the soil. Short-term solutions include processing more wastewater and limiting water evaporation. However, scientists warn that adaptation has limits; at some point, farmers will have to change their crops altogether.
Source: WSJ, todayMost read…
TOP NEWS/Focus: In Mexico, private cash races to plug nearshoring energy crunch
The Energy Dilemma: Mexico's Nearshoring Industry Struggles Amidst Infrastructure Roadblocks
While companies in Mexico appreciate the advantages of operating in the country, they face significant challenges due to the inadequate energy infrastructure. The absence of sufficient investment in constructing new transmission lines and substations has impeded their progress, forcing them to rely on outdated and underdeveloped systems. The primary concern stems from the limited scope of investment by the Mexican government in this critical sector.
REUTERS by Isabel Woodford/Editing by Germán & Co July 26, 2023Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests
A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis
DAMIAN CARRINGTON ENVIRONMENT EDITOR, JUL 26, 2023China adds flexibility to power grids, builds storage capacity to avoid outages
REUTERS by Andrew Hayley, July 26, 20232Fed poised to hike rates as markets anticipate inflation endgame
REUTERS BY HOWARD SCHNEIDER, JULY 26, 2023One dead in cargo ship fire, electric car suspected source, Dutch coastguard says
Reuters, July 26, 2023Image by Germán & CoEditorial…
Extraordinary but Dangerous "Phenomenon": "It's So Hot, They're Growing Mangoes in Italy"
The challenges faced by farmers in the Mediterranean offer a glimpse into the difficulties of feeding a planet that is getting warmer. Rising sea levels, dry spells, and heatwaves are causing disruptions to food production in this region, which is known for its unique diet. The recent heatwave has affected food production in many ways, such as causing cows to produce less milk and reducing honey production in Italy. The Ebro Delta, which has around 20,000 hectares of paddy fields, is particularly vulnerable to the warming climate due to rising sea levels and drought. Some farmers are already considering switching to hardier crops, while others are considering seaweed and clams due to the excess salt in the soil. Short-term solutions include processing more wastewater and limiting water evaporation. However, scientists warn that adaptation has limits; at some point, farmers will have to change their crops altogether.
Source: WSJ, todayMost read…
TOP NEWS/Focus: In Mexico, private cash races to plug nearshoring energy crunch
The Energy Dilemma: Mexico's Nearshoring Industry Struggles Amidst Infrastructure Roadblocks
While companies in Mexico appreciate the advantages of operating in the country, they face significant challenges due to the inadequate energy infrastructure. The absence of sufficient investment in constructing new transmission lines and substations has impeded their progress, forcing them to rely on outdated and underdeveloped systems. The primary concern stems from the limited scope of investment by the Mexican government in this critical sector.
REUTERS by Isabel Woodford/Editing by Germán & Co July 26, 2023Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests
A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis
Damian Carrington Environment editor, Jul 26, 2023China adds flexibility to power grids, builds storage capacity to avoid outages
REUTERS by Andrew Hayley, July 26, 20232Fed poised to hike rates as markets anticipate inflation endgame
REUTERS by Howard Schneider, July 26, 2023One dead in cargo ship fire, electric car suspected source, Dutch coastguard says
Reuters, July 26, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock
Focus: In Mexico, private cash races to plug nearshoring energy crunch
The Energy Dilemma: Mexico's Nearshoring Industry Struggles Amidst Infrastructure Roadblocks
While companies in Mexico appreciate the advantages of operating in the country, they face significant challenges due to the inadequate energy infrastructure. The absence of sufficient investment in constructing new transmission lines and substations has impeded their progress, forcing them to rely on outdated and underdeveloped systems. The primary concern stems from the limited scope of investment by the Mexican government in this critical sector.
REUTERS by Isabel Woodford/Editing by Germán & Co July 26, 2023/3]A general view shows high voltage power lines owned by Mexico's state-run electric utility known as the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), in Santa Catarina, on the outskirts of Monterrey, Mexico February 9, 2021. REUTERS/Daniel Becerril/File Photo
MEXICO CITY, July 26 (Reuters) - For Mexican industrial park owners like Sergio Bermudez, business is booming amid a wave of U.S businesses setting up over the border.
So-called nearshoring has pulled over $9 billion into Mexico since last October by manufacturers like Unilever (ULVR.L) , Barbie maker Mattel (MAT.O) , and Tesla (TSLA.O) , lured by its proximity to the giant U.S market, cheap labor, and geopolitical stability.
Yet Bermudez and many of his 400-strong cohort have a serious cost issue on their hands: energy.
Industrial parks are under pressure to spend millions of dollars to build federal power transmission lines and substations amid government underinvestment, growing energy demand, and aging infrastructure which is at capacity.
While these parks have long contributed to state infrastructure, the lines and specifications now required are getting much longer and costlier in Mexico's manufacturing north, according to nearly a dozen sources.
"Federal funds can't keep up with the growth we're seeing… so the developers or companies have to absorb the cost," said Eduardo Martinez, an official for the state of Nuevo Leon, pointing to austerity and the unpredicted nearshoring boom.
Sergio Arguelles, president of the Mexican Association of Private Industrial Parks (AMPIP), said parks' investment in state energy assets today is unprecedented. The group is yet to calculate exact amounts, but said it is "very significant."
The lure of new clients for parks is strong, but it is still a bitter pill: with regulation restricting private ownership, park owners essentially donate the infrastructure to the state.
"It's the biggest challenge...We are thinking about how are we going to reach an agreement with the government to manage this for the good of the country," said Aaron Gallo, the real estate director at American Industries, whose multiple Mexican industrial parks cater to foreign clients like Danish toymaker Lego.
American Industries is currently building a $12 million 12-kilometer (7.5-mile) line. Gallo said such investments mean they have as much as tripled energy costs for clients in recent years, complicated by lengthy permit processes.
"It's very bureaucratic, it does slow us down," said Gallo. "But there’s no other option."
The issue underscores the holes in President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's attempt to concentrate power in the state energy utility company, CFE, which critics say is unfit to support Mexico's major growth opportunity.
Though private sector assistance may help bolster Mexico's energy security in the short term, much more is needed accommodate the wave of new demand, said David Gantz, a fellow on U.S -Mexico trade at the Baker Institute.
"Mexico would be very well positioned to take advantage of nearshoring if it didn't have such an energy problem," he said.
CFE did not respond to a request for comment.
THE SHRINKING STATE
Mexico's approach to its groaning electricity grid is in contrast to its fast-growing peers, which tend to either incentivize private energy contractors or have state utility companies with deep pockets.
Last year, CFE investment slid to 35.3 billion pesos ($2 billion), or 0.15% of GDP, a fraction of manufacturing rival China's planned investment in the grid of 0.9% of GDP, per Reuters analysis.
Meanwhile, CFE built just under 150 km of transmission lines last year, more than 10 times less per 100,000 square km than in Brazil, where Electrobras said it added 8,679 km to the network.
"We needed a lot more," said AMPIP's Arguelles, noting the bulk of CFE's budget has gone to power generation rather than distribution and transmission infrastructure.
Lopez Obrador has pressed hard to tighten state control of the energy sector, arguing that past governments rigged the market in the favor of private companies.
Yet with billions dedicated to the heavily indebted state-oil company Pemex, industry observers say Mexico lacks the funds to support upgrades to the electricity network.
"The CFE had a very different vision and budget before," said Bermudez, whose family has been in the "maquiladora" or remote manufacturing business for decades. "It used to be much easier."
Indeed, 91% of parks report issues related to energy supply, according to a recent AMPIP survey, including line congestion and being forced to turn away new clients.
Meanwhile, Ramses Pech, CEO of energy consultancy firm Group Caraiva estimated 80% of infrastructure built in industrial areas is now privately funded.
Still, there is some hope for the new wave of 47 planned industrial parks. The energy ministry said it plans to build around 3,000 km of transmission lines next year, as well as new substations, particularly in the north.
FOOTING THE BILL
Some argue that it is only right that the private sector pay its own way, especially given Mexico's relatively low corporation tax, and parks' healthy return on investment.
Hans Joachim Kohlsdorf, an electricity wholesale executive in Mexico, argues that park owners often do not think strategically when setting up remote manufacturing hubs, and understands why the government is reticent to pay.
"There needs to be better planning," he said. "We're in a Catch 22: (the parks) want everything free, and the other party doesn't want to pay."
Zonia Torres, a commercial director of an industrial park in the state of Guanajuato, which has paid for federal infrastructure, agrees.
"The CFE doesn't want to bet on future (energy) demand," she said, adding that Mexico is still "an emerging market" with limited resources.
Yet critics say Mexico's push for state control over energy distribution while also neglecting it is self-sabotage.
"The network provider should be capable of building the infrastructure...The public policy does not take into account the reality, and the level of (foreign) demand." said Alfredo Nolasco, founding partner of nearshoring consultancy Spyral.
"The lack of foresight is likely to be disastrous.
Image by Germán & Co via ShutterstockGulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests
A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis
Damian Carrington Environment editor, Jul 26, 2023The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts.
Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years owing to global heating and researchers spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021.
The new analysis estimates a timescale for the collapse of between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2050, if global carbon emissions are not reduced. Evidence from past collapses indicates changes of temperature of 10C in a few decades, although these occurred during ice ages.
Other scientists said the assumptions about how a tipping point would play out and uncertainties in the underlying data are too large for a reliable estimate of the timing of the tipping point. But all said the prospect of an Amoc collapse was extremely concerning and should spur rapid cuts in carbon emissions.
Amoc carries warm ocean water northwards towards the pole where it cools and sinks, driving the Atlantic’s currents. But an influx of fresh water from the accelerating melting of Greenland’s ice cap and other sources is increasingly smothering the currents.
A collapse of Amoc would have disastrous consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and west Africa. It would increase storms and drop temperatures in Europe, and lead to a rising sea level on the eastern coast of North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.
“I think we should be very worried,” said Prof Peter Ditlevsen, at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, and who led the new study. “This would be a very, very large change. The Amoc has not been shut off for 12,000 years.”
The Amoc collapsed and restarted repeatedly in the cycle of ice ages that occurred from 115,000 to 12,000 years ago. It is one of the climate tipping points scientists are most concerned about as global temperatures continue to rise.
Research in 2022 showed five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating to date, including the shutdown of Amoc, the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
The new study, published in the journal Nature Communications, used sea surface temperature data stretching back to 1870 as a proxy for the change in strength of Amoc currents over time.
The researchers then mapped this data on to the path seen in systems that are approaching a particular type of tipping point called a “saddle-node bifurcation”. The data fitted “surprisingly well”, Ditlevsen said. The researchers were then able to extrapolate the data to estimate when the tipping point was likely to occur. Further statistical analysis provided a measure of the uncertainty in the estimate.
The analysis is based on greenhouse gas emissions rising as they have done to date. If emissions do start to fall, as intended by current climate policies, then the world would have more time to try to keep global temperature below the Amoc tipping point.
The most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that Amoc would not collapse this century. But Ditlevsen said the models used have coarse resolution and are not adept at analysing the non-linear processes involved, which may make them overly conservative.
The potential collapse of Amoc is intensely debated by scientists, who have previously said it must be avoided “at all costs”.
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Prof Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, revealed the early warning signs of Amoc collapse in 2021.
“The results of the new study sound alarming but if the uncertainties in the heavily oversimplified model [of the tipping point] and in the underlying [sea temperature] data are included, then it becomes clear that these uncertainties are too large to make any reliable estimate of the time of tipping.”
Prof David Thornalley, at University College London, UK, agreed the study had large caveats and unknowns and said further research was essential: “But if the statistics are robust and a relevant way to describe how the actual Amoc behaves, then this is a very concerning result.”
Dr Levke Caesar, at the University of Bremen, Germany, said using sea surface temperatures as proxy data for the strength of the Amoc currents was a key source of uncertainty: “We only have direct observational data of the Amoc since 2004.”
The extrapolation in the new analysis was reasonable, according to Prof Tim Lenton, at the University of Exeter, UK. He said the tipping point could lead to a partial Amoc collapse, for example only in the Labrador Sea, but that this would still cause major impacts. Ditlevsen said he hoped the debate would drive new research: “It’s always fruitful when you do not exactly agree.”
Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the University of Potsdam, Germany, said: “There is still large uncertainty where the Amoc tipping point is, but the new study adds to the evidence that it is much closer than we thought. A single study provides limited evidence, but when multiple approaches have led to similar conclusions this must be taken very seriously, especially when we’re talking about a risk that we really want to rule out with 99.9% certainty. Now we can’t even rule out crossing the tipping point in the next decade or two.”
At the Energy Summit 2923 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Edwin De los Santos, President of AES DOMINICANA, emphasized the company's strong commitment to global environmental preservation.
“The relationship between energy and development is symbiotic and interdependent. “
Electrical pylons and power lines are seen in Yanqing district of Beijing, China December 17, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File PhotoChina adds flexibility to power grids, builds storage capacity to avoid outages
REUTERS by Andrew Hayley, July 26, 20232BEIJING, July 26 (Reuters) - China is introducing more flexible power transmission arrangements into its national grid system, helping to avoid a repeat of the outages that plagued parts of the country last year, according to central government officials.
In response to decreased output from hydropower plants, authorities have "rationally optimised" power transmission between provinces to send more power to the country's drought-stricken southwest, Guan Peng of the National Development and Reform Commission told a press conference on Wednesday.
This has included sending more power from China's sparsely populated northwest, Guan added.
China's grid system predominantly distributes power between provinces through fixed medium-to-long term contracts, which do not accommodate changes in regional demand and supply conditions.
More than 90% of market-based power trading in China is conducted through these mid-to-long term contracts, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
After a drought last August, fixed, unidirectional power trading agreements led hydro-dependent southwestern Sichuan province to export power out of the province to fulfil these contracts, even as consumers in the province endured power cuts.
In addition to adding flexibility to grid transmission, authorities have increased water storage at hydro facilities in advance in order to guarantee their operation during periods when temperatures were high, Guan said.
The region has not seen widespread power outages this year, despite similarly hot and dry weather conditions.
Weather-dependent hydropower is expected to remain the primary power source in Sichuan and neighbouring Yunnan, with the Sichuan provincial government forecasting it to account for more than 77% of province's installed generation capacity in 2025.
China has also extensively developed its 'new type' energy storage capabilities this year, officials said. 'New type' energy storage in China is overwhelmingly comprised of lithium-ion battery storage, and contrasts with older pumped-hydro storage technologies.
The installed capacity of this 'new type' energy storage reached 12 gigawatts (GW) as of the end of May, said National Energy Administration official Liu Mingyang. This represents a roughly 37% increase on the 8.7GW in installed capacity reported at the end of last year.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed/File PhotoFed poised to hike rates as markets anticipate inflation endgame
REUTERS by Howard Schneider, July 26, 2023WASHINGTON, July 26 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, marking the 11th hike in the U.S. central bank's past 12 policy meetings and possibly a last move in its aggressive battle to tame inflation.
The increase, anticipated by investors with nearly a 100% probability, would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That would bring it to roughly the highest level since the approach to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.
Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThere's little sense a similar collapse is on the horizon. Far from it, the economy is proving more resilient to rising interest rates than expected, with ongoing growth and an unemployment rate that is currently pinned at a low 3.6%.
In assessing where policy may move next, in fact, the Fed will be balancing whether the economy remains too strong to return a still-elevated rate of inflation to the central bank's 2% target against evidence that a process of "disinflation" may be underway that is likely to continue even without any further rate increases.
After a rapid series of rate hikes over the last year, with the central bank moving in unusually large three-quarters-of-a-percentage-point steps at one point, policymakers say they are now making meeting-by-meeting judgments based on incoming data, an approach meant to keep their options open and one likely to be emphasized by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a press conference shortly after the 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) release of the policy statement.
A key question, said Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered, is whether the Fed "puts more emphasis on weaker-than-expected inflation or stronger-than-expected activity in determining policy" moving forward.
NEARING THE END
The Fed will not update quarterly economic and interest rate projections at this week's meeting, though policymakers will have a chance to discuss quarterly bank survey data that has taken on heightened importance since a string of regional bank collapses earlier this year.
Policymakers' projections in June showed the Fed likely nearing the end of its hiking cycle, with a majority of them seeing the need for only one further quarter-percentage-point increase beyond the expected hike on Wednesday.
Data since June, if anything, has lowered expectations that further rises in borrowing costs will be needed, with headline inflation data coming in weaker than expected, and information about producer prices and other aspects of the economy suggesting further moderation is developing. Indeed, as policymakers began their two-day meeting on Tuesday, the Conference Board reported U.S. consumers' 12-month inflation expectations sank to the lowest level since November 2020.
New data on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released on Friday. A Reuters poll showed economists expect the measure, stripped of volatile food and energy prices, to have increased at a 4.2% annual rate in June, which would be the lowest since September 2021.
That is a significant decline in a data point that has been stuck at around 4.6% since December. But it is still more than double the Fed's target, and officials including Powell have said they will not shift gears on policy until progress on inflation is sustained over several months and they are convinced the pace of price increases will return to 2%.
The Fed will have a larger-than-usual amount of data to assess before its next meeting on Sept. 19-20, some eight weeks away. The typical gap between meetings is six weeks. The longer span allows a full two months of information on jobs and inflation to accumulate, and in this case will also provide the first two of three reports on economic growth in the second quarter.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
After a rally this year, the S&P 500 has climbed about 27% from its recent bottom. PHOTO: BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERSOne dead in cargo ship fire, electric car suspected source, Dutch coastguard says
Reuters, July 26, 2023AMSTERDAM, July 26 (Reuters) - One person died and several others were hurt when a fire broke out on a cargo ship carrying cars off the northern tip of Netherlands, forcing several crew members to jump overboard, the Dutch coastguard said on Wednesday.
The Panama-registered Fremantle Highway was transporting 2,857 cars from Germany to Egypt, 25 of them electric.
An electric car was the suspected source of the blaze, a coastguard spokesperson said, adding that the ship was still burning.
The 199-metre ship, which had departed from the German port of Bermenhaven, was successfully towed out of shipping lanes early on Wednesday, Dutch broadcaster NOS reported.
The ship was sailing 27 km (17 miles) north of the Dutch island of Ameland, with 23 crew onboard, when the fire started on Tuesday night, a statement said.
The crew had tried, but failed, to extinguish the fire, the coastguard statement said.
The injured crew were taken by helicopter to medical facilities on the mainland. They suffered smoke inhalation, or were hurt during the evacuation, a spokesperson said.
A spokesperson for Shoei Kisen Kaisha, a Japanese ship leasing company that manages the Fremantle Highway, was not immediately available for comment.
It is the latest fire to hit a car carrier.
Earlier this month, two New Jersey firefighters were killed and five injured while battling an intense blaze on a cargo ship carrying hundreds of vehicles. A fire destroyed thousands of luxury cars on a ship off the coast of Portugal's Azores islands in February last year.
Image by Germán & CoPutin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion
TWP By Catherine Belton, Shane Harris and Greg Miller, July 25, 2023 LONDON — When Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, launched his attempted mutiny on the morning of June 24, Vladimir Putin was paralyzed and unable to act decisively, according to Ukrainian and other security officials in Europe. No orders were issued for most of the day, the officials said.
The Russian president had been warned by the Russian security services at least two or three days ahead of time that Prigozhin was preparing a possible rebellion, according to intelligence assessments shared with The Washington Post. Steps were taken to boost security at several strategic facilities, including the Kremlin, where staffing in the presidential guard was increased and more weapons were handed out, but otherwise no actions were taken, these officials said.
“Putin had time to take the decision to liquidate [the rebellion] and arrest the organizers” said one of the European security officials, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. “Then when it began to happen, there was paralysis on all levels … There was absolute dismay and confusion. For a long time, they did not know how to react.”
This account of the standoff, corroborated by officials in Western governments, provides the most detailed look at the paralysis and disarray inside the Kremlin during the first hours of the severest challenge to Putin’s 23-year presidency. It is consistent with public comments by CIA Director William J. Burns last week that for much of the 36 hours of the mutiny Russian security services, the military and decision-makers “appeared to be adrift.”
It also appears to expose Putin’s fear of directly countering a renegade warlord who’d developed support within Russia’s security establishment over a decade. Prigozhin had become an integral part of the Kremlin global operations by running troll farms disseminating disinformation in the United States and paramilitary operations in the Middle East and Africa, before officially taking a vanguard position in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Post that the intelligence assessments were “nonsense” and shared “by people who have zero information.”
The longtime symbiosis of the two men, who first met in St. Petersburg in the early 1990s, has exposed the weaknesses of Putin’s crony system of management, where rival clans are pitted against each other, and which has been stretched to breaking point by the war.
Who is Yevgeniy Prigozhin, Wagner chief who stirred a crisis in Russia?
The lack of orders from the Kremlin’s top command left local officials to decide for themselves how to act, according to the European security officials, when Prigozhin’s Wagner troops stunned the world by entering the southern Russian city of Rostov in the early hours of June 24, seizing control of the Russian military’s main command center there, and then moved into the city of Voronezh, before heading further north toward Moscow.
Without any clear orders, local military and security chiefs took the decision not to try to stop the heavily armed Wagner troops, the security officials said.
Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District amid the group's pullout from the city of Rostov, Russia, on June 24. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)
Many on the local level could not believe the Wagner rebellion could be happening without some degree of agreement with the Kremlin, the security officials said — despite Putin’s emergency televised address to the nation on the morning of the mutiny in which he vowed tough action to stop the rebels, and despite a warrant issued for Prigozhin’s arrest for “incitement to insurrection” on the eve of his march to Moscow.
“The local authorities did not receive any commands from the leadership,” said a senior Ukrainian security official. “From our point of view this is the biggest sign of the unhealthy situation inside Russia. The authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear command from the leadership, people don’t do anything. When the leadership is in turmoil and disarray, it the same situation at the local level and even worse.”
The intelligence information helps explain what’s been seen as the biggest debacle of Putin’s rule — how Prigozhin’s armed band of fighters, demanding the ouster of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and armed forces chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, were able to proceed to within 120 miles of Moscow without facing resistance, before eventually agreeing to turn around after a deal was brokered with the help of Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president.
The disarray in the Kremlin also reflects a deepening divide inside Russia’s security and military establishment over the conduct of the war in Ukraine, with many including in the upper reaches of the security services and military supporting Prigozhin’s drive to oust Russia’s top military leadership, the European security officials said.
“Some supported Prigozhin and the idea that the leadership needs to be cleaned up, that the fish is rotting from the head,” one of these officials said.
One senior NATO official said some senior figures in Moscow appeared ready to rally behind Prigozhin had he succeeded in achieving his demands. “There seem to have been important people in the power structures … who seem to have even been sort of waiting for this, as if his attempt had been more successful, they would also” have joined the plot, this official said.
Prigozhin’s increasingly vitriolic tirades blaming corruption and mismanagement by the Russian military command for battlefield setbacks and high casualties in the war against Ukraine had resonated with many sectors of Russian society. Many in the rank and file of the Russian army also wanted Prigozhin to succeed in forcing change at the top of the Russian military, believing that then “it would become easier for them to fight,” this official said.
But others in the security establishment were horrified at the mutiny attempt, and at the Kremlin’s toothless reaction, convinced it was leading Russia toward a period of deep turmoil, officials said.
“There was disarray. You could argue about the depth of it, but there really was lack of agreement,” said a senior member of Russian diplomatic circles. “We heard all these statements. They were not always consistent … For some time, they did not know how to react,” he said. Putin had vowed to crush the rebellion on the morning the rebellion began but by the time he finally emerged in public more than 48 hours later, he said all steps had been taken on his “direct order” to avoid major bloodshed.
Members of the Russian elite said the division over the conduct of the war and its handling by the Russian military leadership, will continue, despite a public relations drive by the Kremlin to demonstrate Putin is in control and the start of a campaign to purge the ranks of the Russian military of critics and Prigozhin’s supporters among Russian ultranationalists.
On Friday Igor Girkin, a controversial former Russian commander in Ukraine who has been vocal in denouncing the Russian military leadership, was arrested. Several high-ranking generals perceived to be close to Prigozhin, including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was often praised by the Wagner leader, have disappeared from public view.
The lack of direction from the Kremlin during the crisis has left Putin significantly weakened, according to his critics. “Putin showed himself to be a person who is not able to make serious, important and quick decisions in critical situations. He just hid,” said Gennady Gudkov, a former colonel in the Russian security services who is now an opposition politician in exile. “This was not understood by most of the Russian population. But it was very well understood by Putin’s elite. He is no longer the guarantor of their security and the preservation of the system.”
“Russia is a country of mafia rules. And Putin made an unforgivable mistake,” said a senior Moscow financier with ties to the Russian intelligence services. “He lost his reputation as the toughest man in town.”
Ukraine is now the most mined country. It will take decades to make safe.
The conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership had been building up for months, and the possibility of conflict increased sharply when the Russian Defense Ministry decreed June 10 that Wagner fighters had to sign contracts with the ministry from July 1, essentially ending Prigozhin’s control of the mercenary group — and the billions of dollars in government contracts attached to it.
When the security service warnings appeared that Prigozhin could be mounting some kind of rebellion, some in the security establishment believed the preparations could be no more than a bluff to increase pressure and gain more leverage to secure his control of Wagner, one of the European security officials said.
To some degree, if Prigozhin’s mutiny was an attempt to gain leverage, it worked. Putin was apparently forced into compromise with the renegade leader, allowing him to travel around Russia for days after the mutiny, because Prigozhin’s work for the Kremlin was too deeply intertwined with the interests of Putin’s state, according to several of the security officials, and Vladimir Osechkin, an exiled human rights activist who has interviewed several former Wagner fighters. Instead of prosecuting Prigozhin for leading the armed insurrection, Putin agreed to drop the charges. In exchange, Prigozhin halted the march on Moscow, withdrew his men from key military installations and agreed to decamp to Belarus, keeping at least part of Wagner intact.
Russia has deployed private mercenary groups as a shadow arm of the state to protect Kremlin interests, “where the state is without strength or cannot officially act,” according to a report drawn up for a Russian parliamentary roundtable on legalizing the private paramilitary organizations in 2015. The report was obtained by the Dossier Center, an investigative group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Putin opponent, and shared with The Post.
“Private paramilitary groups can become effective instruments of state foreign policy,” the report states. “The presence of private military groups in the planet’s ‘hot spots’ will increase Russia’s sphere of influence, win new allies for the country and allow the obtaining of additional interesting intelligence and diplomatic information which ultimately will increase Russia’s weight globally.”
The intertwining of Wagner with the interests of Russian intelligence, with its upper ranks staffed with former members of Russian military intelligence, and its leading role in operations in Syria, Libya and across Africa, where it gained access to extensive mining rights, has meant it was impossible for Putin to swiftly bring the curtain down on Prigozhin’s operations, Osechkin said. Prigozhin “worked for more than 20 years for Putin’s team. He did a lot for their interests in a whole series of countries. He has a huge amount of information” about them, Osechkin said.
“They created a monster for themselves,” one of the European security officials said.
News round-up, July 25, 2023
Editorial…
The Importance of Developing New Nuclear Bomb Cores in the United States: Why?
In today's fast-changing world, the United States must prioritize the development of new nuclear bomb cores; this decision may be attributed to the ongoing arms race between the two countries. Russia's development of new strategic nuclear weapons, such as a hypersonic nuclear-armed glider and an air-launched ballistic missile, has raised concerns about potential threats to U.S. national security.
The Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia, citing Russian violations, has exacerbated these concerns. With the withdrawal, concerns have been raised about the potential reintroduction of nuclear-armed mid-range ballistic and cruise missiles as competition intensifies. Due to this, the United States is intensifying its production of nuclear bomb cores to ensure its capability to deter potential threats.
Each year, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) plans to produce 80 plutonium pits. Nuclear pits are composed of fissile material and neutron reflectors or tamper-proof bonds. Previously, some weapons used pits made from uranium-235 alone or in combination with plutonium.
These pits will be produced at the Mixed-Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility in North Carolina, which will be modified to produce at least 50 pits a year. A minimum of 30 pits will also be produced by Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico by 2030.
Most read…
In the Lab Oppenheimer Built, the U.S. Is Building Nuclear Bomb Cores Again
At the New Employee Training (NET) facility of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), empty waste drums are set up for a “Container Handling for Waste Operators” training session.
TIME BY W.J. HENNIGAN/LOS ALAMOS, N.M., JULY 24, 2023 China’s Foreign Minister Replaced After Unexplained Absence
Qin Gang is removed months after Xi Jinping promoted him to head the Foreign Ministry
TWP BY CHUN HAN WONG, JULY 25, 2023 Indonesia's big gas projects to proceed after global majors sell stakes
REUTERS BY FRANSISKA NANGOY AND BERNADETTE CHRISTINA Stock Market Shrugs Off Recession Signals as Rally Builds
S&P 500 is trading near its highest level since April 2022 as hopes grow for a soft landing
WSJ BY KAREN LANGLEY, JULY 25, 2023 Putin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion
TWP BY CATHERINE BELTON, SHANE HARRIS AND GREG MILLER, JULY 25, 2023 Image:Einstein vs Oppenheimer!/Editing by Germán & CoEditorial…
The Importance of Developing New Nuclear Bomb Cores in the United States: Why?
In today's fast-changing world, the United States must prioritize the development of new nuclear bomb cores; this decision may be attributed to the ongoing arms race between the two countries. Russia's development of new strategic nuclear weapons, such as a hypersonic nuclear-armed glider and an air-launched ballistic missile, has raised concerns about potential threats to U.S. national security.
The Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia, citing Russian violations, has exacerbated these concerns. With the withdrawal, concerns have been raised about the potential reintroduction of nuclear-armed mid-range ballistic and cruise missiles as competition intensifies. Due to this, the United States is intensifying its production of nuclear bomb cores to ensure its capability to deter potential threats.
Each year, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) plans to produce 80 plutonium pits. Nuclear pits are composed of fissile material and neutron reflectors or tamper-proof bonds. Previously, some weapons used pits made from uranium-235 alone or in combination with plutonium.
These pits will be produced at the Mixed-Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility in North Carolina, which will be modified to produce at least 50 pits a year. A minimum of 30 pits will also be produced by Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico by 2030.
Most read…
In the Lab Oppenheimer Built, the U.S. Is Building Nuclear Bomb Cores Again
At the New Employee Training (NET) facility of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), empty waste drums are set up for a “Container Handling for Waste Operators” training session.
TIME BY W.J. HENNIGAN/LOS ALAMOS, N.M., JULY 24, 2023China’s Foreign Minister Replaced After Unexplained Absence
Qin Gang is removed months after Xi Jinping promoted him to head the Foreign Ministry
TWP By Chun Han Wong, July 25, 2023 Indonesia's big gas projects to proceed after global majors sell stakes
Reuters By Fransiska Nangoy and Bernadette ChristinaStock Market Shrugs Off Recession Signals as Rally Builds
S&P 500 is trading near its highest level since April 2022 as hopes grow for a soft landing
WSJ By Karen Langley, July 25, 2023 Putin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion
^TWP By Catherine Belton, Shane Harris and Greg Miller, July 25, 2023 At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Einstein vs Oppenheimer!/Editing by Germán & CoIn the Lab Oppenheimer Built, the U.S. Is Building Nuclear Bomb Cores Again
At the New Employee Training (NET) facility of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), empty waste drums are set up for a “Container Handling for Waste Operators” training session.
TIME BY W.J. HENNIGAN/LOS ALAMOS, N.M., JULY 24, 2023Something unusual is happening inside the plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. PF-4, as it is known to top government officials, is the heart of America’s nuclear complex, a lab where scientists and engineers study and experiment on highly radioactive materials in tight secrecy. Recently, employees have discovered yellow plastic tents encasing equipment and rendering it inaccessible. At Los Alamos, where even the cleaning crews and firefighters require high-level security clearances, you might think the tents are designed to restrict access to the latest wonder weapon or scientific breakthrough. The truth is more mundane—and more telling. “It’s part of our expansion plans,” Matthew Johnson, a senior lab manager, tells me during a rare tour of the fortified building. “All the old stuff is coming out.”
PF-4 is being transformed from an experimental laboratory that focuses mostly on research into a facility that mass-produces plutonium “pits,” the grapefruit-sized cores inside every nuclear bomb in America’s arsenal. Los Alamos— the lab synonymous with the dark art of nuclear-weapon development—hasn’t produced a certified pit in over a decade and has never had to produce more than 10 in a single year. But in 2018, Congress passed a law mandating that PF-4 produce 30 pits a year by 2026. Around $5 billion has already been spent to overhaul the cramped, aging facilities. The Biden Administration has pumped $4.6 billion into Los Alamos this fiscal year alone—a 130% budget increase over what the lab received just five years ago. Truckloads of new work stations, lathes, and furnaces are set for installation. Coast-to-coast recruiting efforts are underway to increase the lab’s workforce, which is already at a record 17,273.
Not long ago, such ambitions would have been unthinkable. Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, the U.S. stopped designing, building, and testing new nuclear warheads. Stockpiles were slashed, labs’ budgets cut, and a highly skilled workforce allowed to dwindle. But after a three-decade break from manufacturing nuclear weapons, the U.S. is getting back into the game. Another arms race may be upon us, triggered by China’s growing ambitions and escalating hostilities with Russia, the world’s other nuclear superpower. Since President Biden took office, both nations have wielded their arsenals to threaten adversaries and coerce neighbors. The last remaining nuclear-arms treaty, known as New START, is set to expire in 2026, raising fears about a new era of unchecked expansion. All nine nuclear powers are scrambling to modernize their arsenals and build new weapons.
The effort to restart America’s nuclear-weapons manufacturing program in response represents the biggest test since the Manhattan Project. A wide range of arms-control experts and nuclear watchdogs, as well as a handful of lawmakers, are frantically sounding the alarms, warning of the existential risks of the course that leaders in both parties have taken. Critics say the U.S. is repeating the mistakes of the Cold War by funneling billions of taxpayer dollars into weapons that will hopefully never be used and haven’t been tested in more than a generation. They worry about the potential environmental disasters. Washington is reacting to geopolitical concerns without considering the consequences of restarting our own bomb-making factories, says Greg Mello, executive director at the Los Alamos Study Group, an Albuquerque-based watchdog organization.
“We’re rushing into a new arms race with our eyes wide shut,” Mello says, “forgetting everything that went wrong before.”
At PF-4, they are well past such debates. Lab managers are busy unsealing and combing through decades-old archives to extract the technical and engineering expertise for plutonium pits that has been all but lost in the U.S. To get a sense of how the headlong rush is unfolding, and the risks that come with it, I accompanied Johnson, a tall, balding metallurgist who’s spent 21 years at the lab, as he led a small group of reporters on a rare trip inside the center of PF-4. It took more than a year to receive government approval for the visit to the facility. All plutonium operations are required to pause if outsiders are on the floor. But with a brief work-stoppage in place, we were given a day pass in late June to slip behind the tiers of barbed-wire fences, code-accessed security doors, and legions of armed guards to catch a glimpse of America’s new nuclear age.
Before stepping onto the PF-4 operations floor, we pulled on thick lab coats, cotton shoe-coverings, protective goggles, and personal radiation-detection badges. It’s a windowless, low-slung facility, with a long gray hallway dividing a series of rooms purpose-built for plutonium production. Identity confirmation is required at each door, even though every employee at PF-4 has a Q-level security clearance from the Energy Department, the highest a civilian can hold.
Weapons-grade plutonium has a radioactive half-life of 24,000 years. The level of radioactivity in these rooms, called “hot areas,” is constantly monitored. When you walk into a new chamber, you’re met with the unnerving clicks of a Geiger counter reverberating inside. The personal-safety protocols underline the stakes. One member of our tour had a notebook quarantined after it mistakenly dropped to the floor. Before leaving a room, we had our hands and feet individually checked for contamination. We also were required to take two full body-scans, stepping into different floor-to-ceiling radiation-detection machines, before we left the facility.
Inside each production room, workers stand under bright fluorescent lights by a series of linked stainless-steel work stations called gloveboxes. They place their hands into specialized rubber gloves and peer through leaded-glass windows as they shape the plutonium. An accidental slip of the hand could result in catastrophe. There’s virtually no safe level of human exposure to plutonium if it’s inhaled. Even the smallest speck—a one-thousandth of a gram, hidden to the human eye—could kill. “We have to account for every flake,” Johnson says. The lab has an elaborate air circulation system; the rooms are at a lower pressure than the outside hallways. Each glovebox has a slight vacuum, designed to ensure that if there is a breach, the particles are contained inside the sealed box.
The U.S. no longer manufactures new plutonium, so workers at PF-4 take old pits from retired warheads sent from the Pantex plant in the Texas panhandle, which assembles, disassembles, and stores parts for America’s nuclear arsenal. The pits are recycled through a process that purifies them of radioactive elements, which accumulate over time. To do this, plutonium winds its way from glovebox to glovebox through an overhead trolley system snaking through the complex. Dumbwaiters move it up and down from the trolley. The plutonium is melted, machined, welded, and inspected. Mastering these skills can take up to four years of training and mentorship, Johnson says. Each worker must undergo routine mental and physical health checks throughout the year to ensure they can handle weapon components.
Up to 1,000 employees work inside PF-4 on a given day, but less than 10 can perform the final step of the assembly, which involves welding pieces of cast plutonium together to form a pit. The task must be done by hand, inside a large walk-in glovebox. Workers wear respirators and several layers of personal protective equipment. The pit then undergoes an inspection process: it’s leak-checked and radiographed, like a medical CT scan, to ensure it meets specifications. If it passes, it’s stamped with a small diamond and sent back to Texas, where it will stay until it’s plugged into a new W87-1 warhead, which is still under development, expected to be completed sometime within the next decade.
The W87-1 will be the first 100% newly manufactured nuclear warhead in the U.S. stockpile since the end of the Cold War. Its pit will be encased in plastic explosives designed to detonate with impeccable timing, compressing it, in just a fraction of a second, from the size of a grapefruit into the size of a golf ball. Fission from this first stage of the process spits out neutrons, triggering an atomic chain reaction that generates a massive release of energy—an explosion. The subsequent radiation, pressure, and energy then fuses two types of heavy hydrogen, tritium and deuterium, to form helium. Additional neutrons fire from this process, creating a fission-fusion feedback loop that happens so quickly it appears instantaneous. It culminates with a fireball that reaches into the millions of degrees, followed by a blast that can level buildings for miles around.
Los Alamos has developed 11 nuclear pits this year…
Los Alamos has made 11 development pits so far this year, but none of them are destined for warheads. The first proof-of-concept weaponized pit is slated for completion at the end of 2024, says Robert Webster, Los Alamos’ deputy director for weapons. Webster says he’s confident his team can reach 30 pits per year by 2030. “It could be sooner,” he says, adding that the most important thing is that it’s done right.
“We’re still cleaning up the legacy mess that we made by working the way we did.”
Others are skeptical. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported in January that it’s highly unlikely PF-4 will be able to meet its congressional mandate of building 30 pits annually on the prescribed timetable. Another larger facility, the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, which has never produced a single pit, has been tasked with producing 50 per year by 2030. The challenges of building new facilities and re-configuring existing ones with cutting-edge equipment are compounded by the extreme dangers of radioactive plutonium and waste disposal. All this may result in the federal government spending up to $24 billion before Los Alamos and Savannah River can reach their combined target of 80 pits per year, the report says. And rushing has its risks.
The environmental hazards of producing plutonium pits are well-established. The last time the U.S. made pits on a mass scale was in 1989, at the Rocky Flats site in Colorado. Production at the plant, which churned out about 1,000 pits per year, was shut down following a raid by the FBI and Environmental Protection Agency that discovered serious environmental violations. There was enough radioactive waste on the premises to cover a football field to a depth of 20 ft. Some 62 pounds of plutonium were found caked inside the plant’s air ducts.
Plutonium poses grave danger to anyone who doesn’t have proper protective equipment, and the total human toll of the work performed at Rocky Flats is unknown. Judy Padilla, 76, worked 22 years at Rocky Flats, most of them handling plutonium in gloveboxes. Padilla says she’s horrified that another generation will be manufacturing pits. She developed a host of medical issues that began during her time at the plant, including a tumor that required a mastectomy of her right breast. Her husband Charles, who also worked at the plant, died in 2014 after battling kidney cancer.
Padilla, who attributes both cases to radiation and chemical exposure at Rocky Flats, received $125,000 from the government after Charles died. The Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act, passed at the end of the Clinton Administration, provides funding to former nuclear employees on an individual basis, but Padilla says it’s littered with loopholes that are better designed to deny claimants than help them.
“My advice to younger people doing this work is: Be careful,” she says. “I thought my government would back me up if I got sick and take care of me. That never happened. It sounds really bitter. But yeah, I’m bitter. I consider myself a walking time-bomb.”
The safety record of Los Alamos has always been intensely scrutinized, particularly in the post-Cold War years. “Is There Really a Cowboy Culture of Arrogance at Los Alamos?” ran a Dec. 2004 headline in the trade publication Physics Today. The question followed a series of high-profile lapses at the lab, including a trove of missing classified documents and an incident in which an intern suffered an eye injury from a laser. The biggest blunder arguably came in 2011, when technicians took a photograph of eight ingots of plutonium lined up side-by-side on a work table to impress their bosses. It may have looked cool to them, but putting radioactive rods in close proximity risked triggering a chain reaction that could have produced a fatal burst of radiation, known as Cherenkov radiation, capable of killing anyone in the room. Plutonium pit production ended the following year, and hasn’t restarted until now.
In 2018, Triad National Security was named as the new contractor to run the lab for the U.S. Energy Department. The company has stated that safety is a core pillar of its operations, including pit production. But workers’ missteps continue to be cited by the the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board, which provides independent federal oversight. Jill Hruby, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, the Energy Department agency that oversees nuclear weapons, wrote a letter in May to Triad for a formal explanation on four “nuclear safety events” that took place between February and July 2021. The incidents included two separate floods, a glovebox breach, and an instance in which an unsafe amount of fissionable material was placed in a dropbox. An investigation attached to the letter noted a “significant lack of attention or carelessness” for worker and public safety.
Mistakes like these only heighten skepticism about how Los Alamos can possibly mass-produce plutonium pits on the appointed schedule without risking the health of its workers and surrounding community. Lab officials recognize that the project will generate unprecedented levels of hazardous waste. The most radioactive waste Los Alamos produces, called transuranic waste, primarily involves contaminated gloves, tools, equipment, and other debris that are typically stuffed into 55-gallon drums stored on site until they can be hauled to an underground facility in southeastern New Mexico. The lab projected the number of drums to spike to 2,000 this year, double the tally of just three years ago, according to a 2021 report delivered to Congress.
“It’s difficult to comprehend the level of contamination, the diversion of amounts of money into something that, in my view, will not improve national security,” says Jay Coghlan, executive director of Nuclear Watch New Mexico, a Santa Fe-based watchdog.
The dangers, of course, stretch far beyond New Mexico. Dread of nuclear annihilation hung over the globe throughout the Cold War. That fear is practically inscribed by history in the creosote-dotted hills around Los Alamos, the birthplace of The Bomb. Located atop a secluded mesa between the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo mountains, its transformation from a high desert outpost into a boomtown began in 1943, when more than 8,000 scientists, soldiers, and other personnel arrived to work for the Manhattan Project’s secret “Site Y” laboratory, under the direction of the theoretical physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer.
The picturesque setting for Oppenheimer’s pursuit of an atomic bomb contributed to the sense of insularity. Outsiders were not welcome. The people who worked and lived at Los Alamos were bound by secrecy and, with few exceptions, unable to leave. To this day, the people on this isolated plateau say they’re “on the hill,” which by default means that everyone else in the world is “off” it. But the ingrained seclusion of Los Alamos isn’t just semantic and geographic. It’s hard to find anyone in the community of 13,000 who doesn’t either work at the lab or have a neighbor, friend, or family member who does. It is a company town where even the street names gesture to its controversial past: Oppenheimer Drive, Trinity Drive, Manhattan Loop.
The lab developed the first atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which killed and maimed hundreds of thousands of Japanese in 1945. Those were crude, comparatively simple devices that produced explosive yields measured in kilotons, or thousands of tons of TNT. In the arms race that ensued over the following decades, weapons designers at Los Alamos came up with ever more lightweight and destructive weapons—some so small that they allowed for a dozen city-busting warheads to fit inside a single ballistic missile’s nose cone. Today’s staged-thermonuclear devices produce explosive yields measured in megatons, or millions of tons of TNT—weapons far more lethal than Oppenheimer’s original. When the U.S. began pursuing such bombs, Oppenheimer discouraged it, calling them a “weapon of genocide.”
Oppenheimer envisioned the A-bomb program as a one-off for a narrow mission. Instead, nuclear bomb-making became a full-fledged American industry. Los Alamos was just one facet of a nationwide nuclear-industrial complex, cranking out weapons components for an arsenal that the U.S. wielded to deter the Soviet Union’s aggression by threatening “massive retaliation” and “mutually assured destruction.” In 1967, around the height of the Cold War, the U.S. nuclear stockpile reached 31,255.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, however, nuclear weapons-production stalled. The number of U.S. sites involved in making warheads was cut in half. President George H.W. Bush declared a self-imposed nuclear-weapons testing moratorium in 1992. The number of warheads in the U.S. stockpile was continually reduced through a series of arms-control treaties with Moscow. Today the nuclear stockpile stands at an estimated 5,244 warheads—an 83% reduction from its Cold War peak.
The reduction brought challenges: if the U.S. could no longer build or design the next world-altering bomb, what could government officials do to retain the expertise of scientists? And how would the ensure the integrity of the arsenal without being able to test the products? Nuclear bombs contain more than 4,000 parts, and most of those parts are now more than 30 years old. Ask yourself: If you left a 1993 Ford Mustang in the barn—a temperature-controlled vault of a barn, but a barn nonetheless—would you feel 100% certain that everything would work properly when you turned the ignition? Oh, and don’t forget that your life may depend on it.
The answer the Energy Department came up with was to harness computer simulations and experiments to evaluate the reliability—and extend the life spans of—America’s nuclear weapons. The most vexing dilemma was assessing plutonium, an element only discovered 80 years ago. To find out how it ages, Los Alamos ran experiments in the early 2000s that found plutonium pits changed over the years in ways that could impact weapons’ performance. But the studies couldn’t provide specifics on when exactly plutonium aged out. At first, scientists concluded the pits should last for 100 years or more. But in 2019, after Congress began pushing for more pits, JASON, the long-time independent scientific advisory group to the U.S. government, urged the Energy Department to reestablish large-scale pit production “as expeditiously as possible to mitigate against potential risks posed by (plutonium) aging on the stockpile.”
The day before my tour of PF-4, I visited the modernistic three-story Municipal Building in Los Alamos to see how the small town was preparing for the coming influx of scientists, technicians, engineers, security guards and support staff. “We’re building as fast as we can,” says Paul Andrus, the community-development director. Roads are being widened. Expansion plans are underway for Atomic City mass transit. Wooden skeletons of condos and housing developments are in the process of getting built in any area they’ll fit.
But finding suitable spots for new construction is a challenge. In addition to the 40-acre lab, Los Alamos is hemmed in by canyons and abuts Bandelier National Monument. The lack of housing is concerning not only because of the incoming workers, but also the teachers, doctors, and other professionals who will be needed alongside them. “We’re just out of space,” says Denise Derkacs, a former lab employee who now serves on the county council. “We would love to help support the lab more, but we just have no more land to build on.” This lack of available space has forced Los Alamos to forge closer ties with communities off the hill. The lab leased two buildings in Santa Fe, located more than 30 miles to the southeast, where it moved hundreds of employees not involved in classified work. The transition, which began in 2021, marked the first time in a half century that the lab had a presence in the city.
At the Energy Summit 2923 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Edwin De los Santos, President of AES DOMINICANA, emphasized the company's strong commitment to global environmental preservation.
“The relationship between energy and development is symbiotic and interdependent. “
Wang Yi, center, returns to a job he exited at the end of last year. PHOTO: FLORENCE LO/POOL REUTERS/ASSOCIATED PRESS/ Editing by Germán & CoChina’s Foreign Minister Replaced After Unexplained Absence
Qin Gang is removed months after Xi Jinping promoted him to head the Foreign Ministry
TWP By Chun Han Wong, July 25, 2023 SINGAPORE—China replaced Foreign Minister Qin Gang, whose mysterious disappearance from the public stage weeks ago sent a wave of uncertainty through the country’s political system.
China hasn’t explained the disappearance of Qin, originally handpicked for the job by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, except to cite vague health issues. At a hastily convened session on Tuesday, the Chinese legislature’s standing committee decided that Wang Yi, the former foreign minister and currently China’s top diplomat, would retake his old post.
The lawmakers didn’t provide a reason for their decision to remove the 57-year-old Qin, who became foreign minister in December. His absence from major diplomatic engagements since late June had fueled speculation inside and outside China about what happened to him and cast a global spotlight on the country’s black-box political system.
China’s Foreign Ministry previously cited health reasons for Qin’s absence from a regional diplomatic meeting in Indonesia this month.
Wang, a 69-year-old member of the Communist Party’s elite 24-member Politburo, previously served as foreign minister from early 2013 until December last year. He became China’s top diplomat when he joined the Politburo in October as its leading foreign-affairs specialist.
State media reports didn’t mention any change to Wang’s existing party roles, suggesting he would occupy both his Politburo and Foreign Ministry positions concurrently—an arrangement that had typically taken place during a transition period between officeholders.
Tuesday’s session of the National People’s Congress standing committee was arranged just a day in advance, an unusually short notice, and outside the typical two-month cycle for regular standing committee sessions. The decision to convene the session came on the same day as a meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo—spurring speculation that lawmakers would confirm personnel changes that Xi and other party leaders approved Monday.
State media readouts from Tuesday’s legislative session didn’t mention any change to Qin’s role as state councilor, a senior government rank in China’s cabinet. It wasn’t clear if Qin would retain his seat on the party’s Central Committee, of which he became a full member in October.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
The logo of Malaysian energy group National Petroleum Limited, commonly known as PETRONAS, is displayed at their booth during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File PhotoIndonesia's big gas projects to proceed after global majors sell stakes
Reuters By Fransiska Nangoy and Bernadette ChristinaTANGERANG, Indonesia, July 25 (Reuters) - Shell (SHEL.L) and Chevron's (CVX.N) agreements to sell stakes in major Indonesian gas projects to Pertamina, Petronas and Eni (ENI.MI) will unleash development at the fields, enabling the country to boost its flagging output, the buyers said.
Indonesia has seen declining oil and gas production in recent years due to depleting reserves, and as major new projects face delays due to oil majors' exits.
After signing a deal on Tuesday to buy a 20% stake in the Masela gas block from Shell, Nicke Widyawati, CEO of Indonesian state energy firm Pertamina, told reporters at the Indonesia Petroleum Association conference that a final investment decision on the project would be made in 2026.
Shell had been looking to sell its 35% interest in the project since 2019. Under the agreement signed on Tuesday, Malaysia's Petronas will buy Shell's other 15% stake.
"Our participation underscores the commitment in supporting Indonesia's production target to achieve one million barrels of oil per day and 12 billion standard cubic feet per day of gas by 2030," Petronas group CEO Tan Sri Tengku Muhammad Taufik said.
Abadi LNG, led by Japan's Inpex Corp (1605.T), will use gas from the Masela block to produce 9.5 million metric tons per year of LNG at its peak, which will be shipped from the proposed terminal for domestic industries and overseas customers.
Dwi Soetjipto, the CEO of Indonesian upstream regulator SKK Migas, told Reuters at the same conference that an FID on the project could be reached as early as end-2024.
FAST TRACK
Eni also signed a deal on Tuesday to take over Chevron's stake in the IDD gas project. It said the acquisition will allow it to fast-track development of the resource, in which it was already a partner along with Pertamina and China's Sinopec (600028.SS).
The IDD project involves the Bangka, Gendalo and Gehem gas fields, and its development will integrate the nearby Jangkrik and North Ganal blocks operated by Eni in the Kutai basin.
It will also leverage the Jangkrik infrastructure and the existing Bontang LNG facility, in which Eni holds a stake, Eni said. Chevron confirmed the sale and said it continues to invest in Indonesia.
SKK Migas also said on Tuesday that three to five potential investors from the Middle East and Asia have started assessing the Tuna natural gas project in a possible sale of Russian firm Zarubezhneft's stake.
British firm Harbour Energy (HBR.L) is currently partnering with Zarubezhneft on the gas field, but Zarubezhneft plans to pull out of the project due to a lack of progress following sanctions on Russian companies.
The Tuna field is expected to reach peak production of 115 million standard cubic feet per day in 2027. Gas from the field will be exported to Vietnam from 2026.
Indonesia still has "huge potential" from natural gas resources, its Energy Minister Arifin Tasrif told the conference earlier, and would exploit gas as a bridge fuel in its transition to greener forms of energy.
Big producers have in recent years promoted gas, which has lower emissions than coal when burned, as a transition fuel to smooth out intermittent supply from renewables. The move has been fiercely resisted by environmentalists.
Reporting by Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina Munthe; Writing by Florence Tan and Emily Chow; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Christian Schmollinger and Kim Coghill
Corp (1605.T), will use gas from the Masela block to produce 9.5 million metric tons per year of LNG at its peak, which will be shipped from the proposed terminal for domestic industries and overseas customers.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
After a rally this year, the S&P 500 has climbed about 27% from its recent bottom. PHOTO: BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERSStock Market Shrugs Off Recession Signals as Rally Builds
S&P 500 is trading near its highest level since April 2022 as hopes grow for a soft landing
WSJ By Karen Langley, July 25, 2023 After a rally this year, the S&P 500 has climbed about 27% from its recent bottom. PHOTO: BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERS
Stocks have floated higher as Wall Street dials back its recession forecasts. Some investors aren’t ready to call the all-clear.
They point to worrying economic signals, lofty equity valuations and the possibility that the Federal Reserve continues raising interest rates or keeps them elevated longer than the market anticipates. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has advanced 19% this year even as analysts expect 2023 corporate earnings to barely inch up.
“There’s not a lot of leeway for bad news right now in equities,” said Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.
Investors are all but certain that the central bank will raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday. Their focus is on the future: any sign of whether Fed officials expect to lift rates higher from there.
Not long ago, brutally hot inflation and the Fed’s plans to fight it made the prognosis for markets and the economy appear bleak.
Since the early 1950s, every episode of significant U.S. disinflation, each of which was driven at least partly by Fed tightening, has been accompanied by recession, according to Deutsche Bank research. That has been bad news for stocks: In recessions since the late 1940s, the S&P 500 has fallen a median of 24%, according to the bank’s research.
Last year the stock market seemed to be signaling such a contraction, with the S&P 500 sliding 25% from its high in January 2022 to its low in October.
Index performance
Source: FactSetMany investors expected more of the same at the start of 2023. Instead, stocks roared higher out of the gate. The S&P 500 emerged last month from its longest bear market since the 1940s and has now climbed 27% from its bottom. It is hovering near its highest levels since April 2022.
Inflation has cooled and the economy keeps motoring along. The jobs market remains robust, with the unemployment rate hitting a 53-year low earlier this year before ticking up just slightly. Americans have been spending more at retail businesses. Economists are raising estimates for gross domestic product in the second and third quarters.
The Federal Reserve is central to the U.S. economy today, but its power has been built over decades. Its decisions can lower inflation or spark a recession. WSJ explains how the Fed was formed and the role it plays in the country. Photo Illustration: Annie Zhao
“There’s an actual chance here the Fed could stick the landing,” said Dryden Pence, chief investment officer at Pence Capital Management.
Still, there are reasons for concern. The Conference Board said last week that its leading economic index fell for a 15th consecutive month, signaling slowing economic activity ahead. That is the index’s longest streak of declines since a span from the spring of 2007 through early 2009. The U.S. economy fell into a recession in December 2007 and didn’t exit until June 2009.
The bond market is flashing another warning sign. Normally, longer-term U.S. Treasurys carry higher yields than shorter-term ones, paying investors for the risk that interest rates rise or inflation accelerates. When the longer-term yields are lower, it often suggests that investors think the Fed will need to cut rates to resuscitate the economy.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has been lower than that of the 2-year Treasury for more than a year, the longest streak since a span ending in 1980, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
There have also been glimpses of weakening in the market for bank loans. Loan officers at U.S. banks told the Federal Reserve earlier this year that they had tightened lending standards for households and businesses and also seen lower demand from borrowers. Tighter lending conditions can weigh on economic growth as firms pull back on investment and hiring and consumers have less money at their disposal.
Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust, said he finds the stock market’s rally perplexing given the warning signs from various economic indicators. His firm sold U.S. stocks in April and is holding more cash than usual to protect against a market downturn, he said.
“When you looked at that data set, you went, hold on here, this kind of looks like a classic slowdown in an economy that eventually slides into some form of contraction,” Olsen said.
Such concerns come as the stock market is boasting rich valuations relative to history. The S&P 500 traded late last week at 19.6 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, up from 16.8 at the end of last year and above a 10-year average of 17.7, according to FactSet.
Although there is no rule that valuations can’t stay elevated, or climb even higher, some investors worry that the high price tag makes the market more vulnerable to a pullback.
And while inflation has cooled notably, easing in June to its slowest pace in more than two years, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Central bank officials may not be satisfied without lifting rates again later this year or keeping them high for an extended period. And that could have unpredictable consequences.
“Everyone’s sort of come to peace with a higher fed-funds rate,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. “I don’t think we’ve quite come to grips with what the implications of staying at that level for a prolonged period of time might mean for the economy and certainly for the markets.”
Image by Germán & CoPutin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion
TWP By Catherine Belton, Shane Harris and Greg Miller, July 25, 2023 LONDON — When Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, launched his attempted mutiny on the morning of June 24, Vladimir Putin was paralyzed and unable to act decisively, according to Ukrainian and other security officials in Europe. No orders were issued for most of the day, the officials said.
The Russian president had been warned by the Russian security services at least two or three days ahead of time that Prigozhin was preparing a possible rebellion, according to intelligence assessments shared with The Washington Post. Steps were taken to boost security at several strategic facilities, including the Kremlin, where staffing in the presidential guard was increased and more weapons were handed out, but otherwise no actions were taken, these officials said.
“Putin had time to take the decision to liquidate [the rebellion] and arrest the organizers” said one of the European security officials, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. “Then when it began to happen, there was paralysis on all levels … There was absolute dismay and confusion. For a long time, they did not know how to react.”
This account of the standoff, corroborated by officials in Western governments, provides the most detailed look at the paralysis and disarray inside the Kremlin during the first hours of the severest challenge to Putin’s 23-year presidency. It is consistent with public comments by CIA Director William J. Burns last week that for much of the 36 hours of the mutiny Russian security services, the military and decision-makers “appeared to be adrift.”
It also appears to expose Putin’s fear of directly countering a renegade warlord who’d developed support within Russia’s security establishment over a decade. Prigozhin had become an integral part of the Kremlin global operations by running troll farms disseminating disinformation in the United States and paramilitary operations in the Middle East and Africa, before officially taking a vanguard position in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Post that the intelligence assessments were “nonsense” and shared “by people who have zero information.”
The longtime symbiosis of the two men, who first met in St. Petersburg in the early 1990s, has exposed the weaknesses of Putin’s crony system of management, where rival clans are pitted against each other, and which has been stretched to breaking point by the war.
Who is Yevgeniy Prigozhin, Wagner chief who stirred a crisis in Russia?
The lack of orders from the Kremlin’s top command left local officials to decide for themselves how to act, according to the European security officials, when Prigozhin’s Wagner troops stunned the world by entering the southern Russian city of Rostov in the early hours of June 24, seizing control of the Russian military’s main command center there, and then moved into the city of Voronezh, before heading further north toward Moscow.
Without any clear orders, local military and security chiefs took the decision not to try to stop the heavily armed Wagner troops, the security officials said.
Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District amid the group's pullout from the city of Rostov, Russia, on June 24. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)
Many on the local level could not believe the Wagner rebellion could be happening without some degree of agreement with the Kremlin, the security officials said — despite Putin’s emergency televised address to the nation on the morning of the mutiny in which he vowed tough action to stop the rebels, and despite a warrant issued for Prigozhin’s arrest for “incitement to insurrection” on the eve of his march to Moscow.
“The local authorities did not receive any commands from the leadership,” said a senior Ukrainian security official. “From our point of view this is the biggest sign of the unhealthy situation inside Russia. The authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear command from the leadership, people don’t do anything. When the leadership is in turmoil and disarray, it the same situation at the local level and even worse.”
The intelligence information helps explain what’s been seen as the biggest debacle of Putin’s rule — how Prigozhin’s armed band of fighters, demanding the ouster of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and armed forces chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, were able to proceed to within 120 miles of Moscow without facing resistance, before eventually agreeing to turn around after a deal was brokered with the help of Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president.
The disarray in the Kremlin also reflects a deepening divide inside Russia’s security and military establishment over the conduct of the war in Ukraine, with many including in the upper reaches of the security services and military supporting Prigozhin’s drive to oust Russia’s top military leadership, the European security officials said.
“Some supported Prigozhin and the idea that the leadership needs to be cleaned up, that the fish is rotting from the head,” one of these officials said.
One senior NATO official said some senior figures in Moscow appeared ready to rally behind Prigozhin had he succeeded in achieving his demands. “There seem to have been important people in the power structures … who seem to have even been sort of waiting for this, as if his attempt had been more successful, they would also” have joined the plot, this official said.
Prigozhin’s increasingly vitriolic tirades blaming corruption and mismanagement by the Russian military command for battlefield setbacks and high casualties in the war against Ukraine had resonated with many sectors of Russian society. Many in the rank and file of the Russian army also wanted Prigozhin to succeed in forcing change at the top of the Russian military, believing that then “it would become easier for them to fight,” this official said.
But others in the security establishment were horrified at the mutiny attempt, and at the Kremlin’s toothless reaction, convinced it was leading Russia toward a period of deep turmoil, officials said.
“There was disarray. You could argue about the depth of it, but there really was lack of agreement,” said a senior member of Russian diplomatic circles. “We heard all these statements. They were not always consistent … For some time, they did not know how to react,” he said. Putin had vowed to crush the rebellion on the morning the rebellion began but by the time he finally emerged in public more than 48 hours later, he said all steps had been taken on his “direct order” to avoid major bloodshed.
Members of the Russian elite said the division over the conduct of the war and its handling by the Russian military leadership, will continue, despite a public relations drive by the Kremlin to demonstrate Putin is in control and the start of a campaign to purge the ranks of the Russian military of critics and Prigozhin’s supporters among Russian ultranationalists.
On Friday Igor Girkin, a controversial former Russian commander in Ukraine who has been vocal in denouncing the Russian military leadership, was arrested. Several high-ranking generals perceived to be close to Prigozhin, including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was often praised by the Wagner leader, have disappeared from public view.
The lack of direction from the Kremlin during the crisis has left Putin significantly weakened, according to his critics. “Putin showed himself to be a person who is not able to make serious, important and quick decisions in critical situations. He just hid,” said Gennady Gudkov, a former colonel in the Russian security services who is now an opposition politician in exile. “This was not understood by most of the Russian population. But it was very well understood by Putin’s elite. He is no longer the guarantor of their security and the preservation of the system.”
“Russia is a country of mafia rules. And Putin made an unforgivable mistake,” said a senior Moscow financier with ties to the Russian intelligence services. “He lost his reputation as the toughest man in town.”
Ukraine is now the most mined country. It will take decades to make safe.
The conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership had been building up for months, and the possibility of conflict increased sharply when the Russian Defense Ministry decreed June 10 that Wagner fighters had to sign contracts with the ministry from July 1, essentially ending Prigozhin’s control of the mercenary group — and the billions of dollars in government contracts attached to it.
When the security service warnings appeared that Prigozhin could be mounting some kind of rebellion, some in the security establishment believed the preparations could be no more than a bluff to increase pressure and gain more leverage to secure his control of Wagner, one of the European security officials said.
To some degree, if Prigozhin’s mutiny was an attempt to gain leverage, it worked. Putin was apparently forced into compromise with the renegade leader, allowing him to travel around Russia for days after the mutiny, because Prigozhin’s work for the Kremlin was too deeply intertwined with the interests of Putin’s state, according to several of the security officials, and Vladimir Osechkin, an exiled human rights activist who has interviewed several former Wagner fighters. Instead of prosecuting Prigozhin for leading the armed insurrection, Putin agreed to drop the charges. In exchange, Prigozhin halted the march on Moscow, withdrew his men from key military installations and agreed to decamp to Belarus, keeping at least part of Wagner intact.
Russia has deployed private mercenary groups as a shadow arm of the state to protect Kremlin interests, “where the state is without strength or cannot officially act,” according to a report drawn up for a Russian parliamentary roundtable on legalizing the private paramilitary organizations in 2015. The report was obtained by the Dossier Center, an investigative group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Putin opponent, and shared with The Post.
“Private paramilitary groups can become effective instruments of state foreign policy,” the report states. “The presence of private military groups in the planet’s ‘hot spots’ will increase Russia’s sphere of influence, win new allies for the country and allow the obtaining of additional interesting intelligence and diplomatic information which ultimately will increase Russia’s weight globally.”
The intertwining of Wagner with the interests of Russian intelligence, with its upper ranks staffed with former members of Russian military intelligence, and its leading role in operations in Syria, Libya and across Africa, where it gained access to extensive mining rights, has meant it was impossible for Putin to swiftly bring the curtain down on Prigozhin’s operations, Osechkin said. Prigozhin “worked for more than 20 years for Putin’s team. He did a lot for their interests in a whole series of countries. He has a huge amount of information” about them, Osechkin said.
“They created a monster for themselves,” one of the European security officials said.
News round-up, July 24, 2023
Quote of the day…
'The Spanish Conservatives' capitulation to the far right would reverberate across the continent'
LE MODE BY OP-ED , GORDON BROWN, FORMER UK PRIME MINISTERMost read…
Gordon Brown: 'The Spanish Conservatives' capitulation to the far right would reverberate across the continent'
LE MODE BY OP-ED , GORDON BROWN, FORMER UK FORMER PRIME MINISTERClimate crisis: 'Warming is right in line with early predictions. But many of the impacts are exceeding predictions'
“For climatologist Michael E. Mann, the extreme phenomena affecting the planet are not the result of a sudden acceleration in global warming. But, he warns, without strong action, a runaway effect cannot be ruled out.
Le Monde by Audrey Garric, published yesterday (Paris)Venezuela’s Oil Industry Is Broken. Now It’s Breaking the Environment.
Gas flares and leaking pipelines from Venezuela’s once-booming oil industry, hobbled by U.S. sanctions and mismanagement, are polluting towns and a major lake.
NYT By Isayen Herrera, Sheyla Urdaneta, Adriana Loureiro Fernandez and Sheyla Urdaneta, July 23, 2023Ukraine-Russia war live: Ukrainian drones 'strike near Russian defence ministry
Russia said it thwarted a Ukrainian “terrorist act” on Moscow as two drones hit non-residential buildings, with one crashing near the defence ministry.
The Telegrpah NowTwo Kennedys on covid
TWP Analysis by Dan Diamond with research by McKenzie Beard, July 21, 2023 Image:Gordon Brown: Child poverty is growing to ‘horrendous’ levels under Tories and SNP/The Sunday Post/Editing by Germán & CoQuote of the day…
'The Spanish Conservatives' capitulation to the far right would reverberate across the continent'
Le Mode by Op-Ed , Gordon Brown, former UK prime ministerMost read…
Gordon Brown: 'The Spanish Conservatives' capitulation to the far right would reverberate across the continent'
Le Mode by Op-Ed , Gordon Brown, former UK prime ministerClimate crisis: 'Warming is right in line with early predictions. But many of the impacts are exceeding predictions'
InterviewFor climatologist Michael E. Mann, the extreme phenomena affecting the planet are not the result of a sudden acceleration in global warming. But, he warns, without strong action, a runaway effect cannot be ruled out.
Le Monde by Audrey Garric, published yesterday (Paris)Venezuela’s Oil Industry Is Broken. Now It’s Breaking the Environment.
Gas flares and leaking pipelines from Venezuela’s once-booming oil industry, hobbled by U.S. sanctions and mismanagement, are polluting towns and a major lake.
NYT By Isayen Herrera, Sheyla Urdaneta, Adriana Loureiro Fernandez and Sheyla Urdaneta, July 23, 2023Ukraine-Russia war live: Ukrainian drones 'strike near Russian defence ministry
Russia said it thwarted a Ukrainian “terrorist act” on Moscow as two drones hit non-residential buildings, with one crashing near the defence ministry.
The Telegrpah NowTwo Kennedys on covid
TWP Analysis by Dan Diamond with research by McKenzie Beard, July 21, 2023 At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Gordon Brown: Child poverty is growing to ‘horrendous’ levels under Tories and SNP/The Sunday Post/Editing by Germán & CoGordon Brown: 'The Spanish Conservatives' capitulation to the far right would reverberate across the continent'
Le Mode by Op-Ed , Gordon Brown, former UK prime ministerThe former British Prime Minister deplores the Spanish People's Party's plan to ally itself with Vox and its hyper-nationalist, anti-LGBT and anti-immigration program in the event of victory.
Spain's general election Sunday matters not just for the country's future but also for the future of Europe. A defeat for socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would likely propel the extreme right-wing Vox party from back street demagogues to parliamentary power, and if, as is widely expected, Vox and the Popular Party (PP) enter into a coalition government, it will mark the end of Spain's long aversion to far-right politicians, which has endured since the death of Generalissimo Francisco Franco in 1975.
Should Vox become part of Spain's government, its chilling, hyper-nationalist, anti-LGBTQ, anti-feminist, and anti-immigrant agenda would push Europe one step further into a right-wing abyss. The capitulation to Vox by Spanish center-right conservatives, who have traditionally rejected alliances with the far-right but are now desperate to return to power, would reverberate across the continent, particularly given that Spain recently assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union.
This alignment between Spain's conservative and far-right parties has resulted in an election campaign dominated by culture-war issues. Lurid Vox propaganda has demonized immigrants, gays, and feminists, portraying Sánchez and his party as enemies of the state. Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the PP president of Madrid, has labeled her political opponents "communists." Seeking to evoke memories of the anticlerical violence throughout Spain before and during the Spanish Civil War, she even accused the opposition of wanting to burn down Catholic churches.
In reply, Sánchez has characterized the upcoming election, which follows the Socialist Party's poor showing in local and regional elections in May, as an existential battle for the future of Spanish democracy. And now, in the last few days of the campaign, the socialist former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has raised the stakes, claiming that "the center-right no longer exists," only the ultra-right, and that having abandoned the center, PP "has gone off the map." Ayuso has already responded in kind to such attacks: "When they call you a fascist, you know you're doing something right."
Reagan-Thatcher doctrine
In addition to targeting civil rights, Spanish rightists have set their sights on rejecting regional autonomy. For years Vox has proposed banning the Catalan and Basque nationalist parties, and there is a genuine risk that after years of relative calm under Sánchez's leadership, a divided Spain could witness a resurgence of separatist, secessionist movements.
The right's embrace of the culture wars is a deliberate strategy to obscure the threat that their neoliberal economic policies pose to living standards and social equity. The PP's agenda, which is taken straight from the Reagan-Thatcher playbook, seeks to abolish Spain's current wealth tax, slash the personal income tax, privatize the country's utilities, and cut social security. When former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss attempted to implement a similar outdated agenda in 2022, she nearly tanked the British economy.
At the same time, the PP's focus on culture-war issues is aimed at diverting attention from the economic achievements of Sánchez and his coalition as well as his green agenda. Since taking office in 2018, Sánchez's government has made significant strides in reducing high levels of inequality and poverty in Spain. Moreover, Sánchez has successfully brokered an inflation-stabilizing agreement on wages, endorsed by both unions and employers, calling for a 4% wage increase in 2023 and 3% increase in 2024 and 2025, and, currently, the country has the highest growth rate and one of the lowest inflation rates in the eurozone.
If re-elected, Sánchez would focus on housing, which he views as Spain's "great national cause" for the next decade. He has also proposed new health-care guarantees, including maximum waiting periods of 60 days for specialized outpatient consultations and 15 days for psychological care for teenagers and children under the age of 15.
Symbiosis between far-right movements
Spain is far from the only European country where the rise of the extreme right poses a threat. Across the continent, the growing popularity of far-right parties has driven previously moderate parties to embrace extreme positions.
In Germany, the nativist Alternative für Deutschland, now rising in the polls, is pushing the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, further to the right. And in Finland, the ultraconservative Finns Party has formed a coalition government with the center-right, forcing it to pursue tough anti-immigration policies. A similar pattern can be observed in other Western European countries from Sweden to Austria, and it may appear in next year's European Parliament elections. And, of course, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party, is further right than any leader the country has had since Benito Mussolini.
The emerging symbiosis between Europe's far-right movements has been supported by wealthy allies in the United States. In September 2022, representatives from 16 European nativist parties, including Poland's ruling Law and Justice, Slovak populists led by former prime minister Robert Fico, and former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša's far-right movement, gathered in Miami for the National Conservatism Conference, where the keynote speaker was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also a Republican presidential candidate and Donald Trump impersonator.
The Florida conference bore a striking resemblance to another far-right summit organized by the same group and held at Rome's Grand Hotel Plaza in February 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Hoping to establish a far-right alternative to the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, attendees championed nationalism, tradition, and the nuclear family as bulwarks against "globalist" attempts to destroy Europe's countries and their respective cultures. It was during this gathering that Meloni outlined her agenda, which ultimately resonated with Italian voters, for "defending national identity and the very existence of the nation-states as the sole means of safeguarding people's sovereignty and freedom."
Ironically, each member of this unlikely global coalition of anti-globalists claims to speak for their own country's unique cultural heritage and their desire to be free from international entanglements while simultaneously using identical us-versus-them xenophobic rhetoric to stoke nativist fears. It has been 175 years since Karl Marx heralded a specter haunting Europe. Today, however, it is not the specter of communism, as Marx had hoped, but that of populist nationalism. The outcome of Spain's election could highlight the gravity and urgency of the threat.
Gordon Brown, prime minister of the United Kingdom from 2007 to 2010, is the United Nations Special Envoy for Global Education.
At the Energy Summit 2923 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Edwin De los Santos, President of AES DOMINICANA, emphasized the company's strong commitment to global environmental preservation.
“The relationship between energy and development is symbiotic and interdependent. “
Image by Le Monde/ Editing by Germán & CoClimate crisis: 'Warming is right in line with early predictions. But many of the impacts are exceeding predictions'
“For climatologist Michael E. Mann, the extreme phenomena affecting the planet are not the result of a sudden acceleration in global warming. But, he warns, without strong action, a runaway effect cannot be ruled out.
Le Monde by Audrey Garric, published yesterday (Paris)Over 50°C in the USA and China, around 45°C in Italy, Spain and Greece, deadly floods in South Korea, raging fires in Canada and unprecedented temperatures in the North Atlantic: The planet is experiencing a series of climate catastrophes. July could be the hottest month on record, after June. Climatologist Michael E. Mann, Director of the Center for Science and the Environment at the University of Pennsylvania (USA), refutes the idea that global warming is accelerating, but warns that we could reach tipping points if we continue to use fossil fuels.
South Korean rescuers search for missing people in an underground tunnel where some 15 cars were trapped by heavy rain in Cheongju on July 16, 2023. STR / AFP
Does the current succession of extremes and records mark a new normal?
As I like to point out, it's worse than a new normal – it's a moving baseline of ever-worsening impacts as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels and generate carbon pollution. These episodes are a reminder that we can not only expect to see records broken, but shattered, if we continue burning fossil fuels and heating up the planet. This year, the El Niño phenomenon, a warming of the equatorial Pacific that can increase global temperatures, is adding to this trend.
Has the climate gone out of control?
This is not the case. It's getting steadily worse and that's bad enough. There's no evidence of runaway feedback process or tipping points that have been crossed. But Earth's long-term history provides examples of where things did spin out of control, often in surprising ways, a reminder that this cannot be ruled out for us if we continue to burn fossil fuels, generate carbon pollution, and warm the planet. We still have time to prevent the worst effects from occurring if we act now.
For scientists like Johan Rockström, head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, we have already exceeded seven of the eight "safe and just" planetary limits, thresholds beyond which humanity would be in peril...
I think there's some misunderstanding in the language. Are we talking about climate tipping points or societal tipping points. These are not the same thing. Whether or not we've exceed 6 planetary limits (I don't think there's any consensus at all that's the case), that's not the same as a climate tipping point. Steady, linear warming could in principle lead to a societal tipping point, because there's a point beyond which the complex system of the economy can no longer function. But there is no evidence that things are spinning out of control. Instead they're getting steadily worse as the planet warms in response to our continued burning of fossil fuels. So yes, there is great urgency. And there's not the slightest consensus about planetary limits.
Are the current impacts of the climate crisis in line with model predictions?
The warming itself [ 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels] is right in line with early climate model predictions. But many of the impacts are exceeding the model predictions. The best example of that is extreme summer weather events – like we are seeing play out in North America, Europe and Asia this summer, from heat waves to wildfires and floods. We can also cite the melting of the ice caps, the shrinking of the Arctic ice pack and rising sea levels.
“Other scientists, such as James Hansen, former director of NASA's main climate science laboratory, are talking about accelerated warming...
I have the utmost respect for Jim. He's been one of the key contributors to our science for decades. But I think he's just incorrect when he claims there's evidence of acceleration of warming. The warming is steady and that's bad enough!
The World Meteorological Organization considers that we are entering "uncharted territory." Do you agree?
It depends on what you mean. There are examples of far greater extremes in Earth history. So in that sense, no. But, over the time span of the emergence of human civilization, are we entering uncharted territory? The answer is almost certainly yes. July will likely be the hottest month this planet has seen in more than 100,000 years.
If we stop emissions immediately, will global warming and its effects stop immediately?
Surface warming stops very soon after emissions reach zero. There is increasing scientific consensus on that point, and the impacts that are tied to surface warming – such as extreme summer weather events – will stabilize when that happens. Some impacts, however, like deep ocean warming, ice shelf collapse and ice sheet destabilization, sea level rise, ocean acidification, could continue on for some time. So no, not all impacts will stop getting worse, and we'll need to focus on adapting to those changes that are inevitable. But much of it will stop getting worse. The bottom line is we've got to stop burning fossil fuels as quickly as possible. I don't think there is any disagreement about that among experts – at least I hope not.
By focusing on achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, aren't we forgetting that it's the accumulation of emissions between now and then that counts?
It is absolutely the rate at which emissions fall that matter. Our carbon budget [maximum emissions] for 1.5°C warming is rapidly decreasing. That's the reason the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] talks about needing to reduce carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 and reach net zero by mid century, to have a decent change of averting 1.5°C warming. Of course, climate impacts aren't a cliff at 1.5°C. I prefer the analogy of a mine field. The greater the warming, the greater the danger.
What's your view on political action in favor of the climate and on the forthcoming world conference (COP28) to be held in December in Dubai (United Arab Emirates)?
I'm worried about the process being hijacked. In the past, I've counseled others to be supportive of the UN climate negotiation process as it's our only multilateral framework for coordinated global action. And I continue to feel that this framework is essential. But I”m troubled, as are many climate activists, by the way it has been hijacked recently by oil-producing middle east nations that have an awful track record on climate. Just as I'm troubled by the way that Saudi Arabia is trying to reabilitate it's deserved reputation as a ruthless petrostate, so am I concerned of the potential for the COP process to be hijacked by bad actors using it as an opportunity to greenwash their terrible legacy on climate.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Source: NYT/Adriana Loureiro FernandezVenezuela’s Oil Industry Is Broken. Now It’s Breaking the Environment.
Gas flares and leaking pipelines from Venezuela’s once-booming oil industry, hobbled by U.S. sanctions and mismanagement, are polluting towns and a major lake.
NYT By Isayen Herrera, Sheyla Urdaneta, Adriana Loureiro Fernandez and Sheyla Urdaneta, July 23, 2023Each morning, José Aguilera inspects the leaves of his banana and coffee plants on his farm in eastern Venezuela and calculates how much he can harvest — almost nothing.
Explosive gas flares from nearby oil wells spew an oily, flammable residue on the plants. The leaves burn, dry up and wither.
“There is no poison that can fight the oil,” he said. “When it falls, everything dries up.”
Venezuela’s oil industry, which helped transform the country’s fortunes, has been decimated by mismanagement and several years of U.S. sanctions imposed on the country’s authoritarian government, leaving behind a ravaged economy and a devastated environment.
The state-owned oil company has struggled to maintain minimal production for export to other countries, as well as domestic consumption. But to do so it has sacrificed basic maintenance and relied on increasingly shoddy equipment that has led to a growing environmental toll, environmental activists say.
Mr. Aguilera lives in El Tejero, a town nearly 300 miles east of Caracas, the capital, in an oil-rich region known for towns that never see the darkness of night. Gas flares from oil wells light up at all hours with a roaring thunder, their vibrations causing the walls of rickety houses to crack.
Many residents complain of having respiratory diseases like asthma, which scientists say can be aggravated by emissions from gas flares. Rain brings down an oily film that corrodes car engines, turns white clothes dark and stains notebooks that children carry to school.
And yet, paradoxically, widespread fuel shortages in the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves mean virtually no one in this region has cooking gas at home.
Soon after President Hugo Chávez rose to power in the 1990s with promises to use the country’s oil wealth to lift up the poor, he fired thousands of oil workers, including engineers and geologists, and replaced them with political supporters, took control of foreign-owned oil assets, and neglected safety and environmental standards.
Then, in 2019, the United States accused Mr. Chavez’s successor, President Nicolás Maduro, of election fraud and imposed economic sanctions, including a ban on Venezuelan oil imports, to try to force him from power.
The country’s economy collapsed, helping to fuel a mass exodus of Venezuelans who could not afford to feed their families even as Mr. Maduro has managed to maintain his repressive hold on power.
After grinding nearly to a halt, the oil sector has seen a modest rebound, in part because the Biden administration last year allowed Chevron, the last American company producing oil in Venezuela, to restart operations on a limited basis.
Neighbors playing board games under a sky lit by gas flares near Punta de Mata in eastern Venezuela.The national oil industry’s travails have been worsened by a corruption investigation into missing oil money that has so far led to dozens of arrests and the resignation of the country’s oil minister.
In eastern Venezuela, rusting refineries burn off methane gases that are part of the fossil fuel industry’s operations and are important drivers of global warming.
Even though Venezuela produces far less oil than it once did, it ranks third in the world in methane emissions per barrel of oil produced, according to the International Energy Agency.
Cabimas, a city about 400 miles northwest of Caracas on the shores of Lake Maracaibo, is another center of regional oil production. There, the state oil company, PDVSA, built hospitals and schools, set up summer camps and provided residents with Christmas toys.
Now oil seeps from deteriorating underwater pipelines in the lake, coating the shores and turning the water a neon green that can be seen from space. Broken pipes float on the surface, and oil drills are rusting and sinking into the water. Birds coated in oil struggle to fly.
The collapse of the oil industry has left Cabimas, once one of the richest communities in Venezuela, in extreme poverty.
Every day at 5 a.m., the three Méndez brothers — Miguel, 16, Diego, 14 and Manuel, 13 — untangle their fishing nets, clean them and row into the polluted waters of Lake Maracaibo, hoping to catch enough shrimp and fish to feed themselves, their parents and their younger sister.
They use gasoline to wash the oil from their skin.
Diego, 14, Manuel, 13, and Miguel Méndez, 16, fishing in Lake Maracaibo, which has been polluted by oil leaking from damaged pipelines.Children play and bathe in the water, which smells of rotting sea life.
The boys’ father, Nelson Méndez, 58, was once a commercial fisherman, back when the lake was cleaner. He worries about getting sick from eating what his children catch, but he worries more about hunger.
He said he was hired by the state oil company about 10 years ago to help clean a fuel spill in the lake, but the work damaged his vision.
“Everything I worked for in life, I lost because of the oil,” Mr. Méndez said.
The poor maintenance of the fuel production machinery in Lake Maracaibo has led to an increase in oil spills, which have contaminated Cabimas and other communities along its shoreline, according to local organizations focusing on the issue.
The gas flares that burn across parts of Venezuela also point to the enfeeblement of the country’s fossil fuel industry: So much gas spews into the atmosphere because there is not enough functioning equipment to convert it into fuel, experts say.
Venezuela ranks among the worst countries in the world in terms of the volume of gas flares produced by its decrepit fuel operations, according to the World Bank.
Oil staining the waters of Lake Maracaibo.In a 2021 report, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights expressed deep concern about the state of Venezuela’s oil industry.
“It is imperative that the government effectively implement its environmental regulatory framework on the oil industry,” the report said.
At a U.N. climate change summit last year, Mr. Maduro did not address the environmental damage resulting from his country’s hobbled oil industry.
Instead, he claimed that Venezuela was responsible for less than 0.4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and blamed wealthier countries for causing environmental harm. (Experts say that figure is accurate and note that the country’s emissions have decreased as its oil industry has cratered.)
“The Venezuelan people must pay the consequences of an imbalance caused by the world’s leading capitalist economies,” Mr. Maduro said in a speech at the summit.
A top government minister, Josué Alejandro Lorca, said in 2021 that oil spills were “not a big deal because, historically, all oil companies have had them.” He added that the government did not have the resources to address the problem.
The state oil company did not respond to requests for comment.
In Cabimas, David Colina, 46, a fisherman, wears oil-stained orange overalls with the distinctive emblem of the state oil company.
Thirty years ago, he said, he could catch more than 200 pounds of fish. Now he is lucky if he pulls up 25 pounds in his net before he exchanges them for flour or rice from his neighbors.
When the state oil company was functioning better, Mr. Colina said, he would be compensated if an oil spill affected his fishing business. But now, he added, “there is no government here anymore.”
After Chevron announced last year that it would resume some oil production in Venezuela, the state oil company hired divers to inspect the oil pipelines in Lake Maracaibo.
So far, according to interviews with three of those divers, leaking pipelines have yet to be repaired. The divers spoke anonymously because they said they could be punished for revealing internal company information. A Chevron representative declined to comment and referred questions to the Venezuelan state oil company.
Francisco Barrios, 62, who also lives in Cabimas, repaired boats used by the oil industry for more than 20 years, earning enough to feed his five children and pay for their education.
But he became disillusioned, he said, by the industry’s decline, the pollution it was causing, the increasingly shoddy infrastructure and a salary that could not keep up with a rising cost of living.
He said that one of his sons, who was a diver, was killed 12 years ago when an underwater pipe he was repairing exploded.
“I got tired of seeing the destruction,” he said while using gasoline to try to remove oil that had seeped into his yard.
The road leading to Punta de Mata, lit by multiple gas flares. Flares in this part of Venezuela burn day and night.*Genevieve Glatsky contributed reporting from Bogotá, Colombia, and Ronny Rodríguez from El Tejero, Venezuela.Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
A member of the security services investigates the damaged building following a reported drone attack in Moscow CREDIT: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERSUkraine-Russia war live: Ukrainian drones 'strike near Russian defence ministry
Russia said it thwarted a Ukrainian “terrorist act” on Moscow as two drones hit non-residential buildings, with one crashing near the defence ministry.
The Telegrpah NowThe alleged attack in the early hours of Monday came a day after Kyiv vowed to “retaliate” for a Russian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Odesa.
“A Kyiv regime attempt to carry out a terrorist act using two drones on objects on the territory of the city of Moscow was stopped,” Russia’s defence ministry said.
“Two Ukrainian drones were suppressed and crashed. There are no casualties.”
Russia meanwhile launched fresh attacks on Odesa overnight with a four-hour strike that destroyed a grain hangar, Kyiv said.
Four port workers are believed to have been injured, while tanks for storing “other types of cargo” have also been damaged.
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies before the House select subcommittee on the weaponization of the federal government on Thursday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)/Editing by Germán & CoTwo Kennedys on covid
TWP Analysis by Dan Diamond with research by McKenzie Beard, July 21, 2023 Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s long-shot campaign for president received its most attention — the wrong kind — after the New York Post published his wild suggestion that covid-19 could be an “ethnically targeted” bioweapon because it “attacks certain races disproportionately.”
“Covid-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese,” RFK Jr. said at a dinner with journalists last week.
The claim has been roundly condemned by virologists, lawmakers and advocacy groups like the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund. It even prompted a rare public rebuke from members of the Kennedy family, including his nephew, former congressman Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.).
And it’s just the latest moment when experts have said RFK Jr.’s assertions were wrong, offensive and possibly dangerous, following his years of high-profile skepticism about a variety of vaccines.
RFK Jr. has since said he was misinterpreted about the “targeted” virus, but he’s also tried to distance himself from some of the fury.
“There’s no Jewish cabal out there making bioweapons,” RFK Jr. said in a conversation with Washington Post reporters on Thursday afternoon.
Yet he continues to reiterate his claim that the U.S. government is experimenting with bioweapons, despite being unable to point to a specific bioweapon after being pressed by The Post.
Fringe views
RFK Jr. is a Kennedy, but he doesn’t speak for the famous political family — a point hammered home during the pandemic, prompting a New York Times article last year about how RFK Jr.’s vaccine criticism had anguished his relatives.
Take Dec. 13, 2022, when Joe Kennedy and other family members gathered in Boston to honor Anthony Fauci at a dinner at the Edward M. Kennedy Institute — even as RFK Jr. was blasting the longtime infectious-disease doctor in an interview with British television.
Fauci “has transformed NIH from the most prestigious and important scientific research organization on Earth, and turned it into an incubator for pharmaceutical products, with all of these corrupting entanglements with the pharmaceutical industry,” RFK Jr. said on “Dan Wootton Tonight.”
The longtime vaccine skeptic — who wrote the 2021 book, “The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health” — also has said that if elected president, he could target Fauci.
“People ask me, would I prosecute him? … I’ll look at it, certainly,” RFK Jr. told The Health 202 on Thursday.
He has hinged much of his long-shot campaign around the coronavirus pandemic, trying to capitalize on frustrations about shutdowns, government policies and officials’ efforts to stifle dissent. In his conversation with Post reporters on Thursday, RFK Jr. repeatedly returned to a broader theme around covid: The U.S. vaccination policy failed to prevent many deaths, and no one is questioning why. For instance, he said, look what happened after vaccines became widely available at the end of 2020.
“We’re seeing in 2021 and '22, this huge increase in excess deaths that nobody is asking about. Nobody is explaining, how is that happening?” RFK Jr. said.
Your author countered that excess deaths were higher in the first year of the pandemic than in the year after vaccines were widely available. Andrew Stokes, a Boston University researcher who has studied excess deaths, also emailed the Health 202 on Thursday night to say that his team found that in places where vaccine uptake went up, excess mortality in the second year of the pandemic went down.
“It is impossible to reconcile the exceptionally strong inverse relationship between vaccination and excess mortality with the possibility that the Covid-19 vaccines [have] contributed to the large toll of excess mortality in the second year of the pandemic,” Stokes added.
Faced with repeated questions — and disagreement — the presidential candidate stressed to Post reporters he was “not anti-vaccine” and would be happy to look at clinical studies.
“I’m open to the fact that I’m wrong,” RFK Jr. said. His years of questioning vaccine safety despite persistently being told that he's wrong suggest otherwise.
The younger Kennedy
Joe Kennedy, who spoke on the phone later Thursday, acknowledged that the nation’s response to the pandemic wasn't perfect.
“Did we get everything right? Clearly not,” he said, recounting communication missteps around when to wear masks, whether household objects needed to be scrubbed with cleaning supplies and other miscues that had frustrated Americans.
But the former Democratic congressman — who spent the first year of the pandemic serving as vice chair of the House Energy and Commerce’s oversight panel, which was responsible for probing the federal health agencies — credited policymakers for pursuing those policies “with the best of intentions.”
And unlike his uncle, he saw no reason to doubt the vaccine process and the officials who worked directly on it.
“The Trump administration legitimately deserves credit for developing and approving a vaccine that would be used to save millions of lives and vaccinate billions of people around the world in record time,” said Joe Kennedy, who currently serves as President Biden’s special envoy to Northern Ireland for economic affairs. He singled Fauci out for special praise, calling him a “hero” for his work on covid but also on other infectious diseases over the years.
“I have no doubt that if our health system had more Dr. Faucis, we would be in a better place, even more than we are,” Joe Kennedy added.
Asked why he decided to publicly distance himself from his uncle this week, the younger Kennedy chose his words carefully.
“Family is family, and it’s a critically important part of my life. That being said, we have disagreements … this is a big one,” Joe Kennedy said.
“I love my uncle. I think he's wrong on this. And … his views, unfortunately, can have, will have a negative impact on our country, our discourse and our health system. I think I'll leave it there.”
Innovation, project of the day…
“In order for the power sector to successfully transition to a net-zero emissions future, it is important to adopt flexible and innovative approaches. With increasing countries committing to ambitious decarbonization plans, the power sector will undergo significant changes. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero by 2050" report highlights the critical role that variable renewables will play in the power generation mix. As electrification becomes a means of decarbonization, power demand will increase, making it essential to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies. New technologies such as batteries, energy storage, biomass, and thermal plants with carbon capture and storage will be crucial in providing flexibility. Complementary technologies will ensure a constant balance between supply and demand as the share of variable renewable energy sources increases. The emergence of new demand sources provides a significant opportunity to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies.
“Germany's power grid is experiencing a groundbreaking transformation thanks to the introduction of Fluence's battery-powered energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters." Historically, the German power grid has been a significant focal point and has adhered to the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent blackouts. However, recent advancements in technology have given rise to a pioneering solution called Grid Boosters, which is set to revolutionize the energy sector.
Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & CoTwo thousand years ago, the Greek philosopher Plato, who was born around 428-427 BCE, offered valuable perspectives on the fundamentals of democratic governance. He emphasized the importance of employing unwavering rationality, or common sense, in conjunction with a deep dedication to solidarity and humanism. These principles play a vital role in establishing a cohesive and balanced society. According to Plato, an open-minded disposition is essential for establishing efficient governance. The key is the ability to make decisions consistent with the socio-economic realities of the environment, which requires leaders to understand the intricacies of society. Politicians should base their decisions on logical reasoning and not give in to short-term, less emotional impulses.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
NThe 250MW Netzbooster (Grid Booster) project is being deployed in the hopes of increasing network utilisation across the German transmission system by using battery-based energy storage.Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & CoVenezuela’s Oil Industry Is Broken. Now It’s Breaking the Environment.
Gas flares and leaking pipelines from Venezuela’s once-booming oil industry, hobbled by U.S. sanctions and mismanagement, are polluting towns and a major lake.
NYT by Isayen Herrera and Sheyla Urdaneta,
Each morning, José Aguilera inspects the leaves of his banana and coffee plants on his farm in eastern Venezuela and calculates how much he can harvest — almost nothing.
Explosive gas flares from nearby oil wells spew an oily, flammable residue on the plants. The leaves burn, dry up and wither.
“There is no poison that can fight the oil,” he said. “When it falls, everything dries up.”
Venezuela’s oil industry, which helped transform the country’s fortunes, has been decimated by mismanagement and several years of U.S. sanctions imposed on the country’s authoritarian government, leaving behind a ravaged economy and a devastated environment.
The state-owned oil company has struggled to maintain minimal production for export to other countries, as well as domestic consumption. But to do so it has sacrificed basic maintenance and relied on increasingly shoddy equipment that has led to a growing environmental toll, environmental activists say.
Mr. Aguilera lives in El Tejero, a town nearly 300 miles east of Caracas, the capital, in an oil-rich region known for towns that never see the darkness of night. Gas flares from oil wells light up at all hours with a roaring thunder, their vibrations causing the walls of rickety houses to crack.
Many residents complain of having respiratory diseases like asthma, which scientists say can be aggravated by emissions from gas flares. Rain brings down an oily film that corrodes car engines, turns white clothes dark and stains notebooks that children carry to school.
José Aguilera Jr. on his father’s farm in eastern Venezuela. The farm is slowly dying because of gas flares from nearby oil wells that coat his banana and coffee plants with oil.
Image
Maicleluz Baez, 27, walking through an area near Lake Maracaibo that is polluted with plastic waste.
And yet, paradoxically, widespread fuel shortages in the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves mean virtually no one in this region has cooking gas at home.
Soon after President Hugo Chávez rose to power in the 1990s with promises to use the country’s oil wealth to lift up the poor, he fired thousands of oil workers, including engineers and geologists, and replaced them with political supporters, took control of foreign-owned oil assets, and neglected safety and environmental standards.
Then, in 2019, the United States accused Mr. Chavez’s successor, President Nicolás Maduro, of election fraud and imposed economic sanctions, including a ban on Venezuelan oil imports, to try to force him from power.
Climate Forward There’s an ongoing crisis — and tons of news. Our newsletter keeps you up to date. Get it in your inbox.
The country’s economy collapsed, helping to fuel a mass exodus of Venezuelans who could not afford to feed their families even as Mr. Maduro has managed to maintain his repressive hold on power.
After grinding nearly to a halt, the oil sector has seen a modest rebound, in part because the Biden administration last year allowed Chevron, the last American company producing oil in Venezuela, to restart operations on a limited basis.
Neighbors playing board games under a sky lit by gas flares near Punta de Mata in eastern Venezuela.
The national oil industry’s travails have been worsened by a corruption investigation into missing oil money that has so far led to dozens of arrests and the resignation of the country’s oil minister.
In eastern Venezuela, rusting refineries burn off methane gases that are part of the fossil fuel industry’s operations and are important drivers of global warming.
Even though Venezuela produces far less oil than it once did, it ranks third in the world in methane emissions per barrel of oil produced, according to the International Energy Agency.
Cabimas, a city about 400 miles northwest of Caracas on the shores of Lake Maracaibo, is another center of regional oil production. There, the state oil company, PDVSA, built hospitals and schools, set up summer camps and provided residents with Christmas toys.
Now oil seeps from deteriorating underwater pipelines in the lake, coating the shores and turning the water a neon green that can be seen from space. Broken pipes float on the surface, and oil drills are rusting and sinking into the water. Birds coated in oil struggle to fly.
The collapse of the oil industry has left Cabimas, once one of the richest communities in Venezuela, in extreme poverty.
Every day at 5 a.m., the three Méndez brothers — Miguel, 16, Diego, 14 and Manuel, 13 — untangle their fishing nets, clean them and row into the polluted waters of Lake Maracaibo, hoping to catch enough shrimp and fish to feed themselves, their parents and their younger sister.
They use gasoline to wash the oil from their skin.
Image
Diego, 14, Manuel, 13, and Miguel Méndez, 16, fishing in Lake Maracaibo, which has been polluted by oil leaking from damaged pipelines.
Image
Overflowing oil contaminating the soil in Cabimas, Venezuela, along the shoreline of Lake Maracaibo.
Children play and bathe in the water, which smells of rotting sea life.
The boys’ father, Nelson Méndez, 58, was once a commercial fisherman, back when the lake was cleaner. He worries about getting sick from eating what his children catch, but he worries more about hunger.
He said he was hired by the state oil company about 10 years ago to help clean a fuel spill in the lake, but the work damaged his vision.
“Everything I worked for in life, I lost because of the oil,” Mr. Méndez said.
The poor maintenance of the fuel production machinery in Lake Maracaibo has led to an increase in oil spills, which have contaminated Cabimas and other communities along its shoreline, according to local organizations focusing on the issue.
The gas flares that burn across parts of Venezuela also point to the enfeeblement of the country’s fossil fuel industry: So much gas spews into the atmosphere because there is not enough functioning equipment to convert it into fuel, experts say.
Venezuela ranks among the worst countries in the world in terms of the volume of gas flares produced by its decrepit fuel operations, according to the World Bank.
Image
Oil staining the waters of Lake Maracaibo.
Image
Wilmer Parra with a handful of fish that he caught in Lake Maracaibo. Some fishermen say they now catch far fewer fish than they once did.
In a 2021 report, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights expressed deep concern about the state of Venezuela’s oil industry.
“It is imperative that the government effectively implement its environmental regulatory framework on the oil industry,” the report said.
At a U.N. climate change summit last year, Mr. Maduro did not address the environmental damage resulting from his country’s hobbled oil industry.
Instead, he claimed that Venezuela was responsible for less than 0.4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and blamed wealthier countries for causing environmental harm. (Experts say that figure is accurate and note that the country’s emissions have decreased as its oil industry has cratered.)
“The Venezuelan people must pay the consequences of an imbalance caused by the world’s leading capitalist economies,” Mr. Maduro said in a speech at the summit.
A top government minister, Josué Alejandro Lorca, said in 2021 that oil spills were “not a big deal because, historically, all oil companies have had them.” He added that the government did not have the resources to address the problem.
The state oil company did not respond to requests for comment.
In Cabimas, David Colina, 46, a fisherman, wears oil-stained orange overalls with the distinctive emblem of the state oil company.
Thirty years ago, he said, he could catch more than 200 pounds of fish. Now he is lucky if he pulls up 25 pounds in his net before he exchanges them for flour or rice from his neighbors.
Image
David Colina, right, fishing with a son and a nephew in Lake Maracaibo. He said the state oil company used to compensate him if oil leaks damaged his catch.
Image
Luis Javier, 9, and Luis David, 8, playing on the shores of Lake Maracaibo, which along with oil, has also become filled with algae.
When the state oil company was functioning better, Mr. Colina said, he would be compensated if an oil spill affected his fishing business. But now, he added, “there is no government here anymore.”
After Chevron announced last year that it would resume some oil production in Venezuela, the state oil company hired divers to inspect the oil pipelines in Lake Maracaibo.
So far, according to interviews with three of those divers, leaking pipelines have yet to be repaired. The divers spoke anonymously because they said they could be punished for revealing internal company information. A Chevron representative declined to comment and referred questions to the Venezuelan state oil company.
Francisco Barrios, 62, who also lives in Cabimas, repaired boats used by the oil industry for more than 20 years, earning enough to feed his five children and pay for their education.
But he became disillusioned, he said, by the industry’s decline, the pollution it was causing, the increasingly shoddy infrastructure and a salary that could not keep up with a rising cost of living.
He said that one of his sons, who was a diver, was killed 12 years ago when an underwater pipe he was repairing exploded.
“I got tired of seeing the destruction,” he said while using gasoline to try to remove oil that had seeped into his yard.
Image
The road leading to Punta de Mata, lit by multiple gas flares. Flares in this part of Venezuela burn day and night.
Genevieve Glatsky contributed reporting from Bogotá, Colombia, and Ronny Rodríguez from El Tejero, Venezuela.
Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."
Innovation, project of the day…
“In order for the power sector to successfully transition to a net-zero emissions future, it is important to adopt flexible and innovative approaches. With increasing countries committing to ambitious decarbonization plans, the power sector will undergo significant changes. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero by 2050" report highlights the critical role that variable renewables will play in the power generation mix. As electrification becomes a means of decarbonization, power demand will increase, making it essential to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies. New technologies such as batteries, energy storage, biomass, and thermal plants with carbon capture and storage will be crucial in providing flexibility. Complementary technologies will ensure a constant balance between supply and demand as the share of variable renewable energy sources increases. The emergence of new demand sources provides a significant opportunity to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies.
“Germany's power grid is experiencing a groundbreaking transformation thanks to the introduction of Fluence's battery-powered energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters." Historically, the German power grid has been a significant focal point and has adhered to the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent blackouts. However, recent advancements in technology have given rise to a pioneering solution called Grid Boosters, which is set to revolutionize the energy sector.
Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & CoImage: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
NThe 250MW Netzbooster (Grid Booster) project is being deployed in the hopes of increasing network utilisation across the German transmission system by using battery-based energy storage.Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & CoThe power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.
By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023“In order for the power sector to successfully transition to a net-zero emissions future, it is important to adopt flexible and innovative approaches. With increasing countries committing to ambitious decarbonization plans, the power sector will undergo significant changes. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero by 2050" report highlights the critical role that variable renewables will play in the power generation mix. As electrification becomes a means of decarbonization, power demand will increase, making it essential to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies. New technologies such as batteries, energy storage, biomass, and thermal plants with carbon capture and storage will be crucial in providing flexibility. Complementary technologies will ensure a constant balance between supply and demand as the share of variable renewable energy sources increases. The emergence of new demand sources provides a significant opportunity to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies.
TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH Collaborate to Simplify Energy Transmission Grid in Germany
In BAYREUTH, Germany and ERLANGEN, Germany on July 11, 2023, the transmission grid operator TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH (Fluence), a subsidiary of Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC) today sealed their cooperations on two Netzboosters (Grid Boosters) with a contract signing at Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen on July 11, 2023,
This collaboration aims to simplify the energy transmission grid by introducing two Netzboosters, also known as Grid Boosters, powered by Fluence's cutting-edge energy storage technology. The Grid Boosters will utilize Fluence Ultrastack, an advanced energy storage product specifically designed to meet the demanding asset availability requirements of critical infrastructure. By incorporating battery-based energy storage systems, these Grid Boosters will significantly reduce system costs for consumers. How, you might ask? By minimizing the need for interventions in the grid and reducing the necessity for grid expansion measures.
TenneT will strategically integrate the two Grid Boosters into the transmission grid at Audorf Süd in Schleswig-Holstein and Ottenhofen in Bavaria, Germany. This strategic placement will enable TenneT to seamlessly integrate more electricity from renewable energy generation sources. The existing grid can now operate with a higher transmission load, allowing for increased capacity in handling renewable energy.
Mode of Operation of the Grid Booster
As the energy transition gains momentum, there is an increasing imbalance between energy production and consumption. This necessitates the expansion of energy grids to transport power generated in decentralized locations, often across long distances. However, traditional grid expansion alone is not sufficient to overcome the challenges faced by the transmission grid. Innovation is required, and one such concept is the Grid Booster.
Historically, the high-voltage grid in Germany has operated on the n-1 principle, which means that power lines are not fully utilized in order to ensure safe system operation in the event of a power failure. Moving forward, Grid Boosters, among other resources, will fulfill this role by allowing the existing lines to almost reach their full capacity. By doing so, the need for proactive grid interventions is greatly reduced.
TenneT's Grid Boosters are pilot projects outlined in the 2019 grid development plan for electricity. The initial stage involves testing the concept on a smaller scale with two 100 MW/100 MWh energy storage systems at the Audorf Süd and Ottenhofen substations. In the second phase of the grid development plan for 2037/2045, it is projected that the German grid will feature up to 54.5 GW of large energy storage systems by 2045 through scenario C2045. The successful implementation of TenneT's Grid Boosters will lay the foundation for future large-scale projects where storage is utilized as a transmission asset.
Ultimately, these Grid Boosters offer immense potential for secure and flexible grid operation, enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. By leveraging innovations like Grid Boosters alongside traditional grid expansion, the challenges of transmitting energy over long distances can be effectively addressed, further facilitating the ongoing energy transition.
The project builds on more than 15 years of energy storage deployments by the Fluence team. Ultrastack was tailored to the specific requirements of TenneT’s Grid Boosters and was developed and tested in Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen. Fluence expects the need for storage solutions to grow rapidly, as the massive expansion of renewable energy sources will increase grid congestion and consequently require more grid reinforcement and relief interventions.
“Fluence, through its advanced product capabilities and extensive energy market experience, is well positioned to be a long-term partner to TSOs in Germany and globally,” said Markus Meyer, Managing Director at Fluence. “TenneT’s Grid Boosters will be the seventh and eighth storage-as-transmission projects Fluence is deploying. Our team is developing the complex applications required for these types of projects in our Erlangen lab and research facility and we continue to invest strongly in our German presence.”
News round-up, July 20, 2023
Innovation, project of the day…
“Germany's power grid is experiencing a groundbreaking transformation thanks to the introduction of Fluence's battery-powered energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters." Historically, the German power grid has been a significant focal point and has adhered to the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent blackouts. However, recent advancements in technology have given rise to a pioneering solution called Grid Boosters, which is set to revolutionize the energy sector.
Most read…
The Biggest Winners in America’s Climate Law: Foreign Companies
U.S. seeks to build domestic supply chains but needs overseas expertise
WSJ BY AMRITH RAMKUMAR, AND PHRED DVORAK, JULY 20, 2023 Scoop!
Why From Ben & Jerry’s Blammes America For war In Ukraine
Your favorite ice cream mogul is campaigning against countering Vladimir Putin's aggression.
POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, IN BRUSSELS, JULY 20, 2023 Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."
The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.
BY GERMÁN & CO, KARLSTAD, SWEDEN, JULY 20, 2023 Companies Requiring Full-Time In-Office Are Struggling to Recruit New Employees
Flexibility Over Rigidity: The Growing Proof
TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS, JULY 18, 2023 Companies Requiring Full-Time In-Office Are Struggling to Recruit New Employees
Flexibility Over Rigidity: The Growing Proof
TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS, JULY 18, 2023 Image: Politico EUInnovation, project of the day…
Germany's power grid is experiencing a groundbreaking transformation thanks to the introduction of Fluence's battery-powered energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters." Historically, the German power grid has been a significant focal point and has adhered to the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent blackouts. However, recent advancements in technology have given rise to a pioneering solution called Grid Boosters, which is set to revolutionize the energy sector.
Most read…
The Biggest Winners in America’s Climate Law: Foreign Companies
U.S. seeks to build domestic supply chains but needs overseas expertise
WSJ By Amrith Ramkumar, and Phred Dvorak, July 20, 2023Scoop!
Why From Ben & Jerry’s Blammes America For war In Ukraine
Your favorite ice cream mogul is campaigning against countering Vladimir Putin's aggression.
POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, IN BRUSSELS, JULY 20, 2023Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."
The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.
By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023Companies Requiring Full-Time In-Office Are Struggling to Recruit New Employees
Flexibility Over Rigidity: The Growing Proof
TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS, JULY 18, 2023 Companies Requiring Full-Time In-Office Are Struggling to Recruit New Employees
Flexibility Over Rigidity: The Growing Proof
TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS, JULY 18, 2023 At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Tesla’s Nevada factory. The U.S. electric-vehicle maker and Japanese battery supplier Panasonic are among the firms benefiting from last year’s climate law. BOB STRONG/REUTERSWSJ By Amrith Ramkumar, and Phred Dvorak, July 20, 2023The 2022 climate law unleashed a torrent of government subsidies to help the U.S. build clean-energy industries. The biggest beneficiaries so far are foreign companies.
The Inflation Reduction Act has spurred nearly $110 billion in U.S. clean-energy projects since it passed almost a year ago, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. Companies based overseas, largely from South Korea, Japan and China, are involved in projects accounting for more than 60% of that spending. Fifteen of the 20 largest such investments, nearly all in battery factories, involve foreign businesses, the Journal’s analysis shows.
These overseas manufacturers will be able to claim billions of dollars in tax credits, making them among the biggest winners from the climate law. The credits are often tied to production volume, rewarding the largest investors.
Japan’s Panasonic, one of the few companies to publicly estimate the impact of the law, could earn more than $2 billion in tax credits a year based on the capacity of battery plants it is operating or building in Nevada and Kansas. The company, which supplies batteries to electric-vehicle maker Tesla, is considering a third factory in the U.S. that would lift that total.
The climate law is designed to build up domestic supply chains for green-energy industries, but the reality is that the technology for building batteries and renewable-energy equipment resides overseas. The incentives are leading these companies to invest in the U.S., often alongside domestic businesses.
“It’s a testament to the fact that we still live in a globalized economy,” said Aniket Shah, head of environmental, social and corporate governance—or ESG—strategy at investment bank Jefferies. “You can’t just out of nowhere put up borders and say, ‘It has to be made in America by American companies.’ ”
What’s the best way for the U.S. to build clean-energy industries? Join the conversation below.
The Journal looked at roughly 210 clean-energy projects and company initiatives spurred by the law, including projects tracked by industry groups American Clean Power and E2 (Environmental Entrepreneurs); announcements from companies and state and local governments; and media reports. Of those, about 140 disclosed investment amounts totaling roughly $110 billion.
Projects were characterized as either wholly U.S. ventures or foreign if overseas companies are contributing significant investment or technology. Renewable-power facilities and projects already in the works before the law passed were excluded.
Forecasters estimate the climate law could unleash some $3 trillion in total clean-energy investments over the next decade. U.S. companies are also investing heavily, including Tesla, solar-panel maker First Solar and hydrogen producer Air Products and Chemicals.
Full domestic supply chains for batteries or solar panels are still years away because foreign companies dominate nearly every step in the process, from raw materials to sophisticated parts.
The large investments by overseas businesses have generally been welcomed by U.S. communities, many of which have benefited for decades from spending and jobs created by foreign automakers and other companies. But some investments from Chinese companies have fueled a backlash as tensions between the two countries escalate.
At least 10 of the projects representing nearly $8 billion in investments included in the Journal’s analysis involve companies either based in China or with substantial ties to China through their core operations or large investors.
Some projects are facing resistance, including two in Michigan: a $3.5 billion battery factory that Ford is building with technology and expertise from China’s CATL; and a $2.4 billion battery-component factory from China-based Gotion. Ford is keeping 100% ownership of the battery factory—in part to sidestep the issue of public funds flowing to CATL, according to a person with knowledge of the deal. Ford is licensing the battery-making know-how and services from CATL, the companies said.
But China hawks say the payments Ford makes to CATL mean the Chinese company reap indirect benefits from government support.
“What we’re seeing is foreign policy conflict with climate policy and trade policy,” Shah said. “We’re going to have to decide as a country what matters more: our enmity with China or our desire to decarbonize quickly.”
Microvast, a startup that was planning to build a more than $500 million battery-component plant in Kentucky, was named as a potential recipient of a $200 million grant from the Energy Department last year. The department later rejected the application. The move followed criticism from Republicans about the company’s ties to China, which include a China subsidiary that accounts for more than 60% of its revenue.
The large electric -car and battery plant- investment announced after climate’s law passageThe Energy Department didn’t give a reason for withdrawing the grant. The department takes a number of factors into account when evaluating such projects, including technology risks and the potential for foreign influence, a spokeswoman said.
Microvast, based in Stafford, Texas, says it is a U.S. company and that Chief Executive Yang Wu is an American citizen. The company recently scrapped plans for the Kentucky plant.
“We must be assured that these taxpayer dollars are not being funneled to the Chinese,” said Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R, Wash.), chair of the House of Representatives committee on energy and commerce, during a June hearing.
Microvast is committed to its goals of investing in the U.S. through other facilities, a spokeswoman said.
The issue is expected to come to a head when the Treasury Department completes rules for electric-car tax credits. The department has proposed that cars using battery materials that were produced by a “foreign entity of concern” such as a Chinese company wouldn’t qualify for tax credits beginning in 2025.
Many expect Treasury to use a loose standard so that some cars qualify, potentially fueling criticism from some politicians who crafted the climate law such as West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), who has argued more lenient criteria go against the intent of the Inflation Reduction Act. Treasury is monitoring shifting markets and supply chains while making rules that advance the law’s goals, a spokeswoman said.
At the Energy Summit 2923 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Edwin De los Santos, President of AES DOMINICANA, emphasized the company's strong commitment to global environmental preservation.
“The relationship between energy and development is symbiotic and interdependent. “
Illustrations by hitandrun for POLITICOScoop!
Why From Ben & Jerry’s Blammes America For war In Ukraine
Your favorite ice cream mogul is campaigning against countering Vladimir Putin's aggression.
POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, IN BRUSSELS, JULY 20, 2023Ben Cohen wasn’t talking about ice cream. He was talking about American militarism.
At 72, the co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream is bald and bespectacled. He looks fit, cherubic even, but when he got going on what it was like to grow up during the Cold War, his tone became less playful and more assertive — almost defiant.
“I had this image of these two countries facing each other, and each one had this huge pile of shiny, state-of-the-art weapons in front of them,” he said, his arms waving above his head. “And behind them are the people in their countries that are suffering from lack of health care, not enough to eat, not enough housing.”
“It’s just crazy,” he added. “Approaching relationships with other countries based on threats of annihilating them, it’s just a pretty stupid way to go.”
It wasn’t a new subject for the famously socially conscious ice cream mogul; Cohen has been leading a crusade against what he sees as Washington’s bellicosity for decades. It’s just that with the war in Ukraine, his position has taken on a new — morally questionable — relevance.
Cohen, who no longer sits on the board of Ben & Jerry’s, isn’t just one of the most successful marketers of the last century. He’s a leading figure in a small but vocal part of the American left that has stood steadfast in opposition to the United States’ involvement in the war in Ukraine.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin sent tanks rolling on Kyiv, Cohen didn’t focus his ire on the Kremlin; a group he funds published a full-page ad in the New York Times blaming the act of aggression on “deliberate provocations” by the U.S. and NATO.
Following months of Russian missile strikes on residential apartment blocks, and after evidence of street executions by Russian troops in the Ukrainian city of Bucha, he funded a 2022 journalism prize that praised its winner for reporting on “Washington’s true objectives in the Ukraine war, such as urging regime change in Russia.”
In May, Cohen tweeted approvingly of an op-ed by the academic Jeffrey Sachs that argued “the war in Ukraine was provoked” and called for “negotiations based on Ukraine’s neutrality and NATO non-enlargement.”
I set up a video call with Cohen not because I can’t sympathize with his mistrust of U.S. adventurism, nor because I couldn’t follow the argument that U.S. foreign policy spurred Russia to attack. I called to try to understand how he has maintained his stance even as the Kremlin abducts children, tortures and kills Ukrainians and sends thousands of Russian troops to their deaths in human wave attacks.
It’s one thing to warn of NATO expansion in peacetime, or to call for a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukrainian citizens safe from further aggression. It’s another to ignore one party’s atrocities and agitate for an outcome that would almost certainly leave millions of people at the mercy of a regime that has demonstrated callousness and cruelty.
Given the scale of Russia’s brutality in Ukraine, I wanted to understand: How does one justify focusing one’s energies on stopping the efforts to bring it to a halt?
Masters of war
Cohen’s political awakening took place against the background of the Cold War and the political upheaval caused by Washington’s involvement in Vietnam.
He was 11 during the Cuban missile crisis that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. Part of the reason he enrolled in college was to avoid being drafted and sent to the jungle to fight the Viet Cong.
When I asked how he first became interested in politics, he cited Bob Dylan’s 1963 protest song “Masters of War,” which takes aim at the political leaders and weapons makers who benefit from conflicts and culminates with the singer standing over their graves until he’s sure they’re dead.
“That was kind of a revelation to me,” Cohen said. Behind him, the sun filtered past a cardboard Ben & Jerry’s sign propped against a window. “I hadn’t understood that, you know, there were these masters of war — essentially I guess what we would now call the military-industrial-congressional complex — that profit from war.”
Cohen saw people from his high school get drafted and never come back from a war that “wasn’t justified.” As he graduated in the summer of 1969, around half a million U.S. troops were stationed in ‘Nam. Later that year, hundreds of thousands of protesters marched on Washington, D.C. to demand peace.
It was only much later, while doing “a lot of research” into the “tradeoffs between military spending and spending for human needs,” that Cohen came across a 1953 speech by Dwight D. Eisenhower, which foreshadowed the U.S. president’s 1961 farewell address in which he coined the phrase “military-industrial complex.”
A Republican president who had served as the supreme allied commander in Europe during World War II, Eisenhower warned against tumbling into an arms race. “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed,” he said.
“That is a foundational thing for me, very inspiring for me, and captures the essence of what I believe,” Cohen said.
“If we weren’t wasting all of our money on preparing to kill people, we would actually be able to save and help a lot of people,” he added with a chuckle. “That goes for how we approach the world internationally as well,” he added — including the war in Ukraine.
Pierre Ferrari, a former Ben & Jerry’s board member who was with the company from 1997 to 2020, said Cohen’s view of the world was shaped by the events of his youth.
“We were brought up at a time when the military, the government was just completely out of control,” he said. “We’re both children of the sixties, the Vietnam War and the new futility of war and the way war is used by the military-industrial complex and politics,” Ferrari added, pointing to the peace symbol he wore around his neck.
Jeff Furman, who has known Cohen for nearly 50 years and once served as Ben & Jerry’s in-house legal counsel, acknowledged that his generation’s views on Ukraine were informed by America’s misadventures in Vietnam.
“There’s a history of why this war is happening that’s a little bit more complex than who Putin is,” he said. “When you’ve been misled so many times in the past, you have to take this into consideration when you think about it, and really, really try to know what’s happening.”
Ice-cold activism
Politics has been a part of the Ben & Jerry’s brand since Cohen and his partner Jerry Greenfield started selling ice cream out of an abandoned gas station in 1978.
The company’s look and ethos were pure 1960s; they named one of their early flavors, Cherry Garcia, after the lead guitarist of the Grateful Dead, Jerry Garcia, whose psychedelic riffs formed the soundtrack of the hippy counterculture.
Social justice was one of the duo’s secret ingredients. For the first-year anniversary of the gas station shop’s opening, they gave away free ice cream for a day. On the flyers printed to promote the event was a quote from Cohen: “Business has a responsibility to give back to the community from which it draws its support.”
In 1985, after the company went public, they used some of the shares to endow a foundation working for progressive social change and committed Ben & Jerry’s to spend 7.5 percent of its pretax profits on philanthropy.
In the early years, the company instituted a five-to-one cap on the ratio between the salary of the highest-earning executive and its lowest-paid worker, dropping it only when Cohen was about to step down as CEO in the mid-1990s and they were struggling to find a successor willing to work for what they were offering.
Most companies try to separate politics and business. Cohen and Greenfield cheerfully mixed them up and served them in a tub of creamy deliciousness (the company’s rich, fatty flavors were in part driven by Cohen’s sinus problems, which dulls his taste).
In 1988, Cohen founded 1% for Peace, a nonprofit organization seeking to “redirect one percent of the national defense budget to fund peace-promoting activities and projects.” The project was funded in part through sales of a vanilla and dark-chocolate popsicle they called the Peace Pop.
It was around this time that Cohen opened Ben & Jerry’s in Russia, as “an effort to build a bridge between Communism and capitalism with locally produced Cherry Garcia,” according to a write-up in the New York Times. After years of planning, the outlet opened in the northwestern city of Petrozavodsk in 1992. (The company shut the shop down five years later to prioritize growth in the U.S., and also because of the involvement of local mobsters, said Furman, who was involved in the project.)
Even after Ben & Jerry’s was bought by Unilever in 2000, there were few progressive causes the company wasn’t eager to wade into with a campaign or a fancy new flavor.
The ice cream maker has marketed “Rainforest Crunch” in defense of the Amazon forest, sold “Empower Mint” to combat voter suppression, promoted “Pecan Resist” in opposition to then-U.S. President Donald Trump and launched “Change the Whirled” in partnership with Colin Kaepernick, the American football quarterback whose sports career ended after he started taking a knee during the national anthem in protest of police brutality.
More recently, however, the relationship between Cohen, Greenfield and Unilever has been rockier. In 2021, Ben & Jerry’s announced it would stop doing business in the Palestinian territories. Cohen and Greenfield, who are Jewish, defended the company’s decision in an op-ed in the New York Times.
After the move sparked political backlash, Unilever transferred its license to a local producer, only to be sued by Ben & Jerry’s. In December 2022, Unilever announced in a one-sentence statement that its litigation with its subsidiary “has been resolved.” Ben & Jerry’s ice cream continues to be sold throughout Israel and the West Bank, according to a Unilever spokesperson.
Cohen himself is no stranger to activism: Earlier this month, he was arrested and detained for a few hours for taking part in a sit-in in front of the U.S. Department of Justice, where he was protesting the prosecution of the activist and WikiLeaks publisher Julian Assange.
Unilever declined to comment on Cohen’s views. “Ben Cohen no longer has an operational role in Ben & Jerry’s, and his comments are made in a personal capacity,” a spokesperson said.
Ben & Jerry’s did not respond to a request for comment.
The world according to Ben
For Cohen, the war in Ukraine wasn’t just a tragedy. It was, in a sense, a vindication. In 1998, a group he created called Business Leaders for Sensible Priorities published a full-page ad in the New York Times titled “Hey, let’s scare the Russians.”
The target of the ad was a proposal to expand NATO “toward Russia’s very borders,” with the inclusion of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. Doing so, the ad asserted, would provide Russians with “the same feeling of peace and security Americans would have if Russia were in a military alliance with Canada and Mexico, armed to the teeth.”
Cohen is by no means alone in this view of recent history. The American scholar John Mearsheimer, a prominent expert in international relations, has argued that the “trouble over Ukraine” started after the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest when the alliance opened the door to membership for Ukraine and Georgia.
In the U.S., this point has been echoed by progressive outlets and thinkers, such as Jeffrey Sachs, the linguist Noam Chomsky, or most recently by the American philosopher, activist and longest-of-long-shots, third-party presidential candidate Cornel West.
“We told them after they disbanded the Warsaw Pact that we could not expand NATO, not one inch. And we did that, we lied,” said Dennis Fritz, a retired U.S. Air Force official and the head of the Eisenhower Media Network — which describes itself as a group of “National Security Veteran experts, who’ve been there, done that and have an independent, alternative story to tell.”
It was Fritz’s organization that argued in a May 2023 ad in the New York Times that although the “immediate cause” of the “disastrous” war in Ukraine was Russia’s invasion, “the plans and actions to expand NATO to Russia’s borders served to provoke Russian fears.”
The ad noted that American foreign policy heavyweights, including Robert Gates and Henry Kissinger, had warned of the dangers of NATO expansion. “Why did the U.S. persist in expanding NATO despite such warnings?” it asked. “Profit from weapons sales was a major factor.”
When I spoke to Cohen, the group’s primary donor, according to Fritz, he echoed the ad’s key points, saying U.S. arms manufacturers saw NATO’s expansion as a “financial bonanza.”
“In the end, money won,” he said with a resigned tone. “And today, not only are they providing weapons to all the new NATO countries, but they’re providing weapons to Ukraine.”
I told Cohen I could understand his opposition to the war and follow his critique of U.S. foreign policy, but I couldn’t grasp how he could take a position that put him in the same corner as a government that is bombing civilians. He refused to be drawn in.
“I’m not supporting Russia, I’m not supporting Ukraine,” he said. “I’m supporting negotiations to end the war instead of providing more weapons to continue the war.”
The Grayzone
Itried to get a better answer when I spoke to Aaron Maté, the Canadian-born journalist who won the award for “defense reporting and analysis” that Cohen was instrumental in funding.
Named after the late Pierre Sprey, a defense analyst who campaigned against the development of F-35 fighter jets as overly complex and expensive, the award recognized Maté’s “continued work dissecting establishment propaganda on issues such as Russian interference in U.S. politics, or the war in Syria.”
Maté, who was photographed with Cohen’s arm around his shoulders at the awards ceremony in March, writes for the Grayzone, a far-left website that has acquired a reputation for publishing stories backing the narratives of authoritarian regimes like Putin’s Russia or Bashar al-Assad’s Syria. His reports deny the use of chemical weapons against civilians in Syria, and he has briefed the U.N. Security Council at Moscow’s invitation.
When I spoke to Maté, he was friendly but guarded. (The Pierre Sprey award noted that “his empiricist reporting give the lie to the charge of ‘disinformation’ routinely leveled by those whose nostrums he challenges.”)
He was happy however to walk me through his claims that, based on statements by U.S. officials since the start of the war, Washington is using Kyiv to wage a “proxy war” against Moscow. Much of his information, he said, came from Western journalism. “I point out examples where, buried at the bottom of articles, sometimes the truth is admitted,” he explained.
He declined to be described as pro-Putin. “That kind of ‘guilt-by-association’ reasoning is not serious thinking,” he said. “It’s not how adults think about things.” When I asked if he believed that Russia had committed war crimes in Ukraine, he answered: “I’m sure they have. I’ve never heard of a war where war crimes are not committed.”
Still, he said, the U.S. was responsible for “prolonging” the war and “sabotaging the diplomacy that could have ended it.”
‘Come to Ukraine’
The best answer I got to my question came not from Cohen or others in his circle but from a fellow traveler who hasn’t chosen to follow critics of NATO on their latest journey.
A self-described “radical anti-imperialist,” Gilbert Achcar is a professor of development studies and international relations at SOAS University of London. He has described the expansion of NATO in the 1990s as a decision that “laid the ground for a new cold war” pitting the West against Russia and China.
But while he sees the war in Ukraine as the latest chapter in this showdown, he has warned against calls for a rush to the negotiating table. Instead, he has advocated for the complete withdrawal of Russia from Ukraine and “the delivery of defensive weapons to the victims of aggression with no strings attached.”
“To give those who are fighting a just war the means to fight against a much more powerful aggressor is an elementary internationalist duty,” he wrote three days after Russia launched its attack on Kyiv, comparing the invasion to the U.S.’s intervention in Vietnam.
Achcar said he understood the conclusions being drawn by people like Cohen about Washington’s interventions in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. But, he said, “it leads a lot of people on the left into … [a] knee-jerk opposition to anything the United States does.”
What they fail to account for, however, is the Ukrainian people.
“In a way, part of the Western left is ethnocentric,” said Achcar, who was born in Senegal and grew up in Lebanon. “They look at the whole world just by their opposition to their own government and therefore forget about other people’s rights.”
His point was echoed in the last conversation I had when researching this article, with Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and a former economy minister.
“It doesn’t really matter who promised what to whom in the 1990s,” Mylovanov said. “What matters is that there was Mariupol and Bucha, where tens of thousands of people were killed.”
Mylovanov taught economics at the University of Pittsburgh until he returned to Ukraine four days before Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“Things like war are difficult to understand unless you experience them,” he said. “This is very easy to get confused when you are sitting, you know, somewhere far from the facts and you have surrounded yourself by an echo chamber of people and sources that you agree with.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
NThe 250MW Netzbooster (Grid Booster) project is being deployed in the hopes of increasing network utilisation across the German transmission system by using battery-based energy storage.Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & CoGermany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."
The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.
By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023“In order for the power sector to successfully transition to a net-zero emissions future, it is important to adopt flexible and innovative approaches. With increasing countries committing to ambitious decarbonization plans, the power sector will undergo significant changes. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero by 2050" report highlights the critical role that variable renewables will play in the power generation mix. As electrification becomes a means of decarbonization, power demand will increase, making it essential to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies. New technologies such as batteries, energy storage, biomass, and thermal plants with carbon capture and storage will be crucial in providing flexibility. Complementary technologies will ensure a constant balance between supply and demand as the share of variable renewable energy sources increases. The emergence of new demand sources provides a significant opportunity to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies.
TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH Collaborate to Simplify Energy Transmission Grid in Germany
In BAYREUTH, Germany and ERLANGEN, Germany on July 11, 2023, the transmission grid operator TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH (Fluence), a subsidiary of Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC) today sealed their cooperations on two Netzboosters (Grid Boosters) with a contract signing at Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen on July 11, 2023,
This collaboration aims to simplify the energy transmission grid by introducing two Netzboosters, also known as Grid Boosters, powered by Fluence's cutting-edge energy storage technology. The Grid Boosters will utilize Fluence Ultrastack, an advanced energy storage product specifically designed to meet the demanding asset availability requirements of critical infrastructure. By incorporating battery-based energy storage systems, these Grid Boosters will significantly reduce system costs for consumers. How, you might ask? By minimizing the need for interventions in the grid and reducing the necessity for grid expansion measures.
TenneT will strategically integrate the two Grid Boosters into the transmission grid at Audorf Süd in Schleswig-Holstein and Ottenhofen in Bavaria, Germany. This strategic placement will enable TenneT to seamlessly integrate more electricity from renewable energy generation sources. The existing grid can now operate with a higher transmission load, allowing for increased capacity in handling renewable energy.
Mode of Operation of the Grid Booster
As the energy transition gains momentum, there is an increasing imbalance between energy production and consumption. This necessitates the expansion of energy grids to transport power generated in decentralized locations, often across long distances. However, traditional grid expansion alone is not sufficient to overcome the challenges faced by the transmission grid. Innovation is required, and one such concept is the Grid Booster.
Historically, the high-voltage grid in Germany has operated on the n-1 principle, which means that power lines are not fully utilized in order to ensure safe system operation in the event of a power failure. Moving forward, Grid Boosters, among other resources, will fulfill this role by allowing the existing lines to almost reach their full capacity. By doing so, the need for proactive grid interventions is greatly reduced.
TenneT's Grid Boosters are pilot projects outlined in the 2019 grid development plan for electricity. The initial stage involves testing the concept on a smaller scale with two 100 MW/100 MWh energy storage systems at the Audorf Süd and Ottenhofen substations. In the second phase of the grid development plan for 2037/2045, it is projected that the German grid will feature up to 54.5 GW of large energy storage systems by 2045 through scenario C2045. The successful implementation of TenneT's Grid Boosters will lay the foundation for future large-scale projects where storage is utilized as a transmission asset.
Ultimately, these Grid Boosters offer immense potential for secure and flexible grid operation, enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. By leveraging innovations like Grid Boosters alongside traditional grid expansion, the challenges of transmitting energy over long distances can be effectively addressed, further facilitating the ongoing energy transition.
The project builds on more than 15 years of energy storage deployments by the Fluence team. Ultrastack was tailored to the specific requirements of TenneT’s Grid Boosters and was developed and tested in Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen. Fluence expects the need for storage solutions to grow rapidly, as the massive expansion of renewable energy sources will increase grid congestion and consequently require more grid reinforcement and relief interventions.
“Fluence, through its advanced product capabilities and extensive energy market experience, is well positioned to be a long-term partner to TSOs in Germany and globally,” said Markus Meyer, Managing Director at Fluence. “TenneT’s Grid Boosters will be the seventh and eighth storage-as-transmission projects Fluence is deploying. Our team is developing the complex applications required for these types of projects in our Erlangen lab and research facility and we continue to invest strongly in our German presence.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Source: Media/Editing by Germán & CoCompanies Requiring Full-Time In-Office Are Struggling to Recruit New Employees
Flexibility Over Rigidity: The Growing Proof
TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS, JULY 18, 2023 The beginning of 2023 brought the end of some remote-work policies as Disney, Starbucks, and Activision Blizzard all said they would require employees to come into the office more frequently.
Employees complained, and there was some anecdotal evidence that in-office mandates were costing those and other companies good workers, who voted with their feet and went elsewhere.
Now, the proof is getting stronger that a lack of flexibility can hurt in the long term. Companies with flexible work policies are growing more quickly than those that require people to be in the office full-time, according to The Flex Index, released July 18, which collects office requirements on more than 4,500 companies with 30,000 locations and that employ more than 100 million people globally.
Specifically, in the last year, companies—regardless of their size—that are fully flexible added jobs at more than twice the rate of companies that were full-time in office.
“It seems pretty clear that the companies that are full time in-office are having a harder time attracting talent than the companies that offer some level of flexibility,” says Rob Sadow, CEO and co-founder of Scoop, the technology company that publishes the report.
Even companies that offer some level of flexibility, whether it be two or three days working from home, have grown more quickly than those that require full-time in-office. Among companies that have between 500 and 5,000 employees, for example, structured hybrid companies (i.e., that require employees to come in on some specific days, but not on others) grew headcount 4.6% over the year, while fully flexible companies of that size grew 4.5%. Full-time in-office companies of that size grew only 2.1%, by comparison.
But there’s a limit to what kind of hybrid arrangement employees seem willing to commit to. Companies that require 1-3 days in the office grew much faster than those that required four or five, the report found.
“Once you start getting closer to full-time in office, requiring four or five days, I think there’s a bright line starting to emerge for employees and for your ability to attract talent,” Sadow says.
Of course, headcount growth is not necessarily a proxy for a company’s financial health. But in this economy, with an extremely low unemployment rate and some industries still reporting wars over talent, the companies that are hiring are typically the ones growing revenue, Sadow says.
Atlassian is one company that has committed to being fully flexible. In August 2020, it announced its Team Anywhere policy, which allows employees to decide if they want to be in-office or not. Since then, the company has more than doubled in headcount, from 4,907 to 11,067. (Atlassian also laid off 500 employees in March because of the “difficult macroeconomic environment.”) “We’re doing [remote work] unequivocally and we’re winning faster than everybody else,” co-CEO Scott Farquhar told me recently. Atlassian still has offices, but it allows employees to decide when (and whether) they want to go in. About half of the company’s new hires live more than two hours from an office, which means they were in locations that Atlassian previously wouldn’t have been able to hire from. The company has also been able to increase diversity because it can hire people who live outside major cities; previously, its biggest U.S. office and headquarters was in the San Francisco Bay Area.
“Operating beyond the physical footprints of our offices means we can hire people we previously couldn’t,” Farquhar says, including underrepresented groups that prefer or need to work from home or a location where Atlassian doesn’t have offices. “Now we can hire them and provide a career that was previously unattainable because we’ve removed the restraints of physical location.” For instance, Atlassian struggled to hire Black talent in the San Francisco Bay Area but has found some success hiring Black talent in Atlanta, he says. In 2022, 5.4% of the people Atlassian hired were Black people based in the U.S., up from 2.4% in 2020. Similarly, 37.9% of the people Atlassian hired were women in 2022, up from 30.7% in 2020.
The company has found that flexibility allows people to move closer to family or to more affordable cities; many Atlassians who had been based in San Francisco moved to Seattle after it launched the Team Anywhere policy. The policy has also increased the number of disabled and veteran workers the company hired, since veterans tend to be less likely to live in the country’s most populous cities and disabled workers sometimes struggle with a commute or being required to sit at a desk all day.
Of course, allowing workers to be fully remote has its downsides. A study published earlier in July found that fully remote workers are about 10% less productive than workers who are in the office full-time. Fully remote workers can have trouble motivating themselves, the research suggested, and are sometimes more distracted at meetings because they are multi-tasking. That said, the same research shows that hybrid work has no association with lower productivity.
Farquhar, of Atlassian, says that the company has experimented with ways to keep productivity high and keep people connected, even if they’re rarely in an office. The company leans on “intentional togetherness,” which essentially means planning times where groups of workers are together in-person to socialize. Atlassian has found that there’s a spike in connectedness to the company after these offsites, and that fades after three or four months, by which time the company holds another offsite.
Veeva Systems is another company that decided to embrace remote work during the pandemic; the life sciences company announced a “Work Anywhere” policy that allows people to decide whether to work at home or in an office. The policy boosted recruiting, says chief people officer Vivian Welsh. Between July 2020 and April 2023, Veeva increased its headcount by 71%, and now has employees in 48 states (with New Mexico and North Dakota as the exceptions). “As some other companies in the industry have changed their policies” to require return to office, Welsh says, “we’ve noticed an increase in interest.”
Veeva also has policies aimed at keeping remote workers engaged; it has offsites of whole departments once a year, and “coworking weeks” in which the company sometimes pays for small teams to work together in a single office. It also requires employees to have video on for Zoom calls, open calendars so others can see what they’re doing, and to work during “core hours” so they are reachable even if they’re not in the office.
Difficulty hiring does not appear to have motivated companies that ended their fully remote companies to change their policies, but Sadow, of Scoop, says that this may change if the job market remains tight. People may stick with their current employer for a lot of intangible reasons, but when they’re deciding where they want to work next, they may be less willing to put up with stringent in-office companies. And if companies continue having trouble hiring, they may be forced to change.
Correction, July 19
The original version of this article mischaracterized the period during which Veeva’s headcount increased by 70% and to how many states it expanded; it grew to 48 states between July 2020 and April 2023, not to 50 between Q1 2020 and Q1 2024. It also mischaracterized how Veeva defines “coworking weeks”; during those periods, the company sometimes but not always pays for small teams to work together in an office.
Mexican businessman Manuel Gonzalez has invested €50 million in his new luxury restaurant Abya, open in a 20th-century palace in the Salamanca district of Madrid, on May 27, 2023. MANAURE QUINTERO/BLOOMBERG IMAGES/Editing by Germán & CoFor Latino investors and dissidents, Madrid is becoming the 'new Miami'
The Spanish government has made closer ties with Latin America one of the priorities of its presidency of the Council of the European Union.
Le Monde by Sandrine Morel , published today at 12:24 am (Paris)Holders of large Mexican and Colombian fortunes; economic migrants from Honduras, Bolivia and Ecuador; Cuban and Venezuelan political dissidents and former members of Central American governments; not to mention Latino singers and writers: They are all converging at the Spanish capital. While Madrid has always nurtured a close relationship with Latin America, it is more trendy than ever, particularly among the wealthiest Latin Americans. In 2022, according to the National Statistics Institute, more than 3 million people born in Latin America were living in Spain, including over 820,000 in Madrid and its region – almost 50% more than in 2015. And that's not counting the young people of the second generation, whose parents arrived to take part in the construction boom of the early 2000s.
Determined to make the most of its historical, cultural and economic links with Latin America, the Spanish government has logically made closer ties with the continent one of the priorities of its rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, which it has held since July 1. In addition to Europe's strategic interest in a closer relationship, Spain would gain a new dimension in the geopolitical arena and assert itself as a global player, acting as a gateway and pivot to its former colonies.
"Spain is becoming what Miami used to be. The language is the same, integration is working, and wealthy Latin Americans and workers alike are finding something highly valued in Latin America: security," pointed out Erika Gonzalez, professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid. She sees in this craze the consequences of "the departure of large Latin American fortunes from the United States during Donald Trump's presidency" and "the American integration model's running out of steam."
Political instability and the fact that numerous left-wing governments came to power in Latin America – the "marea rosa" ("pink tide") – may also have caused concern among the moneyed elite. In 2021, Latin America recorded capital outflows of $140 billion (€124 billion). The same is expected in 2022. And in Madrid, several Mexican law firms specializing in international arbitration have opened offices, anticipating a "growth in litigation and regulatory problems for foreign investors," due to "the uncertainty and the political situation in Latin America," the Spanish Arbitration Club (CEA) recently pointed out.
In the middle-class Salamanca district in the heart of Madrid, Latin American millionaires have been flocking in recent years to the luxury apartments built by Venezuelan and Mexican developers. The latest example is a 1930s building on Calle de Padilla purchased by Mexican investor Nicolas Carrancedo, of the Be Grand group. Currently being refurbished, half of its 25 "premium" apartments have already been sold to wealthy Mexicans. In the spring, on Calle de José Ortega y Gasset, the new luxury restaurant Abya opened in a 20th-century palace, after Mexican businessman Manuel Gonzalez invested €50 million in the project.
Real estate, the main investment sector
"Before, capital flows were almost exclusively from North to South. Not anymore," said Erika Gonzalez. Traditionally, Latin America has served as a springboard for the internationalization of many Spanish companies in the banking, construction and renewable energies sectors, before their leap into other international markets such as the US. Now, investment in Spain from Latin America is also starting to take off. It reached €1.4 billion in 2021, and another €1.1 billion in 2022, according to the Institute for Foreign Trade (ICEX). This is still well below the €36.5 billion of foreign direct investment (IED) by Spanish companies in Latin America. But the 287 new Latin American projects launched in Spain last year testify to the dynamism of these relations.
Real estate is the main investment sector. Venezuelan developers such as Miguel Angel Capriles, a distant cousin of the Venezuelan opposition figure of the same name, led the way in 2013, when prices were at their lowest and the government had just introduced "golden visas," residency for foreigners who buy properties over €500,000. Lately, it's been Mexican investors who have been steadily buying up and renovating high-value buildings in order to bring luxury apartments onto the market, prized by their wealthy compatriots. Since 2020, they have invested €700 million.
Dissidents and former presidents
On top of these wealthy investors, numerous dissidents have also arrived – from Cuban artists of the San Isidro movement to Venezuelan opposition figure Leopoldo Lopez, along with Guatemalan human rights prosecutor Jordan Rodas, who was banned from running in the elections, the result of which is expected in August.
Three former Mexican presidents have also taken up residence in the capital. Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988-1994) obtained Spanish citizenship thanks to a dispensation given to descendants of Sephardic Jews expelled from the kingdom at the end of the 15th century. Felipe Calderon (2006-2012) was invited by former Spanish prime minister José Maria Aznar to join the Atlantic Institute of Government (IADG), a think tank he founded. As for Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018), he obtained a golden visa after investing in luxury real estate in the center of Madrid and in a housing estate in a chic suburb. He found in Spain the tranquility he would probably not have experienced in his own country, where a judicial investigation has been opened against him for alleged corruption.
In 2021, after the name of two residents of 99 Calle de Lagasca appeared in the "Pandora Papers" – the leak of millions of documents from firms specializing in setting up companies in tax havens – the daily El Pais became interested in the 44 owners of this high-luxury building, where the penthouse, at the time the most expensive in the capital, had been sold for €14.6 million. Eleven of the owners were Mexican; five were Venezuelan, including a builder couple and Victor Vargas, the right-hand man of Hugo Chavez's former banker; two were Colombian; and one was Peruvian.
"Madrid has always been a welcoming city for Latin Americans, from both left and right," said Carlos Malamud, a researcher in international relations and Latin America specialist at the Elcano Royal Institute, who himself arrived in Spain in the 1970s to escape the dictatorship of Argentine general Videla. "During the last four Spanish presidencies of the EU Council, attempts had already been made to place relations with Latin America at the center of the agenda, without much success. The current context – the need for Spain to diversify its allies to cope with the consequences of the war in Ukraine – and the growing interest in strategic mineral, energy and cereal supplies has changed the game," added Malamud.
Spain intends to take advantage of this and strengthen the "Ibero-American" space. As part of the European stimulus package, the government has earmarked €1.1 billion for the development of the "economy of Spanish" in order to promote Castilian, a language spoken by over 550 million people worldwide, and encourage its use in science, artificial intelligence, culture, audiovisual media and publishing.
News round-up, July 19, 2023
Editorial…
“Phoenix has fallen into Hell, while the rest of the planet is immersed in an uncontrollable inferno…
In a bleak and desolate landscape, Phoenix tries to stand as a symbol of resistance—a once-thriving city now plunged into the depths of Hell. The fall season reflects the destructive destiny that awaits the rest of the planet, as an uncontrollable yet expected inferno rages. Phoenix is experiencing an unprecedented heatwave in its weather history, with temperatures exceeding 43 degrees Celsius for 19 consecutive days. This prolonged and unusual heatwave has made the city inhospitable and unbearable for its vulnerable residents. The extreme heat has also strained the city's electricity infrastructure, leading to power outages in certain areas. As a result, people seeking relief have found refuge in air-conditioned community centers and commercial establishments. At the same time, according to Dante's philosophy, the rest of the world is engulfed in flames, exacerbating the already polluted air.
It is fall, and the fate of Phoenix mirrors the devastating near future, or rather the present, that awaits the rest of the planet. This uncontrollable and relentless inferno, compared to the menacing dire wolf in the tale of “Little Red Riding Hood”, continues to unfold. Finally, our collective inability to act with genuine resolve has led to a situation where the questions we should have addressed long ago now seem too late to answer.
Most read…
Henry Kissinger meets China’s defence minister in surprise visit to Beijing
Ex-US secretary of state’s meeting with Li Shangfu comes amid hopes of improved ties between two countries
THE GUARDIAN BY AMY HAWKINS SENIOR CHINA CORRESPONDENT, JULY 18, 2023 Jaguar Land Rover’s new £4bn gigafactory to supply half of Britain’s EV battery needs
Government-backed deal expected to create up to 9,000 jobs
THE TELEGRAPH BY HOWARD MUSTOE, JULY, 18 2023 The wind and solar power myth has finally been exposed
The necessary miracle doesn't exist
THE TELEGRAPH BY BRYAN LEYLAND, MAY 10, 2023 In Central Asia, a hidden pipeline supplies Russia with banned tech
Moscow looks south for partners willing to help it circumvent bans on Chinese drones and German electronics
WP BY JOBY WARRICK, JULY 18, 2023 Trump’s Conspirators Are Facing the Music, Finally
NYT BY *NORMAN EISEN AND RYAN GOODMAN, JULY 18, 2023 *MR. EISEN IS A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION. MR. GOODMAN IS A LAW PROFESSOR AT NEW YORK UNIVERSITY. Global power demand growth to rebound in 2024 after slowdown, IEA says
The IEA data also suggests that renewable energy will play a crucial role in meeting the projected growth in energy consumption for both this year and next. In fact, renewable sources are predicted to surpass one third of the world's total power supply, marking a significant milestone. This demonstrates the increasing prominence of renewable energy in the global energy landscape.
REUTERS BY FORREST CRELLIN, EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JULY 19, 2023Image: by Germán & CoEditorial…
“Phoenix has fallen into Hell, while the rest of the planet is immersed in an uncontrollable inferno…
In a bleak and desolate landscape, Phoenix tries to stand as a symbol of resistance—a once-thriving city now plunged into the depths of Hell. The fall season reflects the destructive destiny that awaits the rest of the planet, as an uncontrollable yet expected inferno rages. Phoenix is experiencing an unprecedented heatwave in its weather history, with temperatures exceeding 43 degrees Celsius for 19 consecutive days. This prolonged and unusual heatwave has made the city inhospitable and unbearable for its vulnerable residents. The extreme heat has also strained the city's electricity infrastructure, leading to power outages in certain areas. As a result, people seeking relief have found refuge in air-conditioned community centers and commercial establishments. At the same time, according to Dante's philosophy, the rest of the world is engulfed in flames, exacerbating the already polluted air.
It is fall, and the fate of Phoenix mirrors the devastating near future, or rather the present, that awaits the rest of the planet. This uncontrollable and relentless inferno, compared to the menacing dire wolf in the tale of “Little Red Riding Hood”, continues to unfold. Finally, our collective inability to act with genuine resolve has led to a situation where the questions we should have addressed long ago now seem too late to answer.
Most read…
Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."
The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.
By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Image by Germán & Co by ShutterstockHenry Kissinger meets China’s defence minister in surprise visit to Beijing
Ex-US secretary of state’s meeting with Li Shangfu comes amid hopes of improved ties between two countries
The Guardian by Amy Hawkins Senior China correspondent, July 18, 2023“The veteran US diplomat Henry Kissinger has met China’s defence minister in Beijing.
According to a readout on Tuesday from the Chinese defence ministry, Li Shangfu said “friendly communication” between China and the US had been “destroyed” because “some people in the United States did not meet China halfway”. Kissinger said he was a “friend of China”, according to the readout.
“Neither the United States nor China can afford to treat the other as an adversary. If the two countries go to war, it will not lead to any meaningful results for the two peoples,” the Chinese statement reported Kissinger as saying.
The surprise visit of the 100-year-old former US secretary of state comes as John Kerry, the US climate envoy, is in Beijing to meet Chinese officials to discuss how the two countries can cooperate on confronting the climate crisis. Kerry is the latest in a string of senior US officials who have travelled to China this summer, after the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, completed a long-awaited trip in June.
Relations between the two superpowers have been spiralling downwards for months, but there is cautious optimism on both sides that the restarting of official dialogues can build a foundation for improved ties.
Kissinger’s visit, which had not been publicised, is outside the official roster of meetings. It is almost exactly 52 years since his secret visit to Beijing in July 1971, which paved the way for Richard Nixon, the US president at the time, to normalise relations between the US and China. More than half a century on, Kissinger is still seen by many in Beijing as a “friend of China”. In May, state tabloid the Global Times praised Kissinger’s “razor-sharp” mind.
Kissinger has repeatedly warned of “catastrophic” consequences of a conflict between the US and China.
Li has been the subject of US sanctions since 2018, relating to the purchase of combat aircraft from Russia’s main arms exporter, which Beijing cites as a reason for refusing to reopen military-to-military dialogues with Washington. Last month, Li refused to meet his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to request for comment.
…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.
Javier Dib
Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes
Image: The Jaguar Land Rover battery plant is expected to generate up to 9,000 jobs in the UK CREDIT: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg/Editing by Germán & CoJaguar Land Rover’s new £4bn gigafactory to supply half of Britain’s EV battery needs
Government-backed deal expected to create up to 9,000 jobs
The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, July, 18 2023 Jaguar Land Rover owner Tata group will build one of Europe’s largest gigafactories in the UK, securing half of Britain’s supply of electric vehicle (EV) batteries for the rest of the decade in a £4bn investment.
The Government on Wednesday officially confirmed plans for the gigafactory, Tata’s first outside of India.
The decision comes after months of negotiations between the UK and Tata, which also owns the giant steel plant at Port Talbot in Wales.
The new gigafactory will have an annual capacity of 40 gigawatt hours and will be capable of supplying other carmakers in the UK and Europe.
The Government said the Tata factory will produce enough electric car batteries to meet half of Britain’s forecast demand by 2030.
The Jaguar Land Rover battery plant is expected to generate up to 9,000 jobs in the South West of England, including 4,000 directly employed by Tata.
The decision secures the future of JLR in the UK and provides a crucial boost to the wider car industry.
Britain’s two biggest car makers, JLR and Nissan, will now have a local supply of cells for new electric cars. Tata’s gigafactory will be 2GWh larger than the planned capacity of Nissan’s expanded plant near Sunderland.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “We can be incredibly proud that Britain has been chosen as home to Tata Group’s first gigafactory outside India, securing our place as one of the most attractive places to build electric vehicles.”
The news comes months after the collapse of Britishvolt, which had been hoping to build an electric car battery factory near Blyth.
The startup crumbled into administration before its assets were bought up by an Australian investment company, which pivoted operations away from car batteries.
Concept art of the planned electric car battery factory near Blyth, which was scrapped when Britishvolt went into administration
Attracting investment into battery supplies in the UK is seen as vital to keeping the industry competitive. The Brexit deal means cars built using batteries imported from outside Europe will attract a 10pc tariff if shipped to the Continent.
A looming ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 means establishing a domestic supply chain quickly is also crucial.
The UK beat Spain to host Tata’s plant, following months of negotiations.
The Treasury is reported to have offered up to £500m in subsidies to Tata to secure the plant, although Jaguar Land Rover previously denied it was offered funding to influence the decision.
Tata is also seeking up to £300m for its steelworks in Port Talbot.
Spain had €2bn of EU funds earmarked to boost its domestic electric vehicle sector. However, it had set a limit of €350m for financing new battery plants.
Details of the government support to Tata will be published “in due course” the Department for Business and Trade said.
Darren Jones, chairman of the Business and Trade Committee, said MPs would want to “reflect” on whether the subsidy required to secure battery investment was “scalable to meet the need for future battery manufacturing sites”.
Former Nissan executive Andy Palmer said that the rest of the industry would need help in its transition to electric vehicles.
He said: “If the UK dishes out the bulk of its battery-related support to one brand, then we still face likely car industry armageddon. Support must come in all shapes and sizes for businesses of all shapes and sizes. One gigafactory doesn’t equal success, it equals part of the puzzle.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
NThe 250MW Netzbooster (Grid Booster) project is being deployed in the hopes of increasing network utilisation across the German transmission system by using battery-based energy storage.Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & CoGermany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."
The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.
By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023“In order for the power sector to successfully transition to a net-zero emissions future, it is important to adopt flexible and innovative approaches. With increasing countries committing to ambitious decarbonization plans, the power sector will undergo significant changes. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero by 2050" report highlights the critical role that variable renewables will play in the power generation mix. As electrification becomes a means of decarbonization, power demand will increase, making it essential to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies. New technologies such as batteries, energy storage, biomass, and thermal plants with carbon capture and storage will be crucial in providing flexibility. Complementary technologies will ensure a constant balance between supply and demand as the share of variable renewable energy sources increases. The emergence of new demand sources provides a significant opportunity to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies.
TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH Collaborate to Simplify Energy Transmission Grid in Germany
In BAYREUTH, Germany and ERLANGEN, Germany on July 11, 2023, the transmission grid operator TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH (Fluence), a subsidiary of Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC) today sealed their cooperations on two Netzboosters (Grid Boosters) with a contract signing at Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen on July 11, 2023,
This collaboration aims to simplify the energy transmission grid by introducing two Netzboosters, also known as Grid Boosters, powered by Fluence's cutting-edge energy storage technology. The Grid Boosters will utilize Fluence Ultrastack, an advanced energy storage product specifically designed to meet the demanding asset availability requirements of critical infrastructure. By incorporating battery-based energy storage systems, these Grid Boosters will significantly reduce system costs for consumers. How, you might ask? By minimizing the need for interventions in the grid and reducing the necessity for grid expansion measures.
TenneT will strategically integrate the two Grid Boosters into the transmission grid at Audorf Süd in Schleswig-Holstein and Ottenhofen in Bavaria, Germany. This strategic placement will enable TenneT to seamlessly integrate more electricity from renewable energy generation sources. The existing grid can now operate with a higher transmission load, allowing for increased capacity in handling renewable energy.
Mode of Operation of the Grid Booster
As the energy transition gains momentum, there is an increasing imbalance between energy production and consumption. This necessitates the expansion of energy grids to transport power generated in decentralized locations, often across long distances. However, traditional grid expansion alone is not sufficient to overcome the challenges faced by the transmission grid. Innovation is required, and one such concept is the Grid Booster.
Historically, the high-voltage grid in Germany has operated on the n-1 principle, which means that power lines are not fully utilized in order to ensure safe system operation in the event of a power failure. Moving forward, Grid Boosters, among other resources, will fulfill this role by allowing the existing lines to almost reach their full capacity. By doing so, the need for proactive grid interventions is greatly reduced.
TenneT's Grid Boosters are pilot projects outlined in the 2019 grid development plan for electricity. The initial stage involves testing the concept on a smaller scale with two 100 MW/100 MWh energy storage systems at the Audorf Süd and Ottenhofen substations. In the second phase of the grid development plan for 2037/2045, it is projected that the German grid will feature up to 54.5 GW of large energy storage systems by 2045 through scenario C2045. The successful implementation of TenneT's Grid Boosters will lay the foundation for future large-scale projects where storage is utilized as a transmission asset.
Ultimately, these Grid Boosters offer immense potential for secure and flexible grid operation, enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. By leveraging innovations like Grid Boosters alongside traditional grid expansion, the challenges of transmitting energy over long distances can be effectively addressed, further facilitating the ongoing energy transition.
The project builds on more than 15 years of energy storage deployments by the Fluence team. Ultrastack was tailored to the specific requirements of TenneT’s Grid Boosters and was developed and tested in Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen. Fluence expects the need for storage solutions to grow rapidly, as the massive expansion of renewable energy sources will increase grid congestion and consequently require more grid reinforcement and relief interventions.
“Fluence, through its advanced product capabilities and extensive energy market experience, is well positioned to be a long-term partner to TSOs in Germany and globally,” said Markus Meyer, Managing Director at Fluence. “TenneT’s Grid Boosters will be the seventh and eighth storage-as-transmission projects Fluence is deploying. Our team is developing the complex applications required for these types of projects in our Erlangen lab and research facility and we continue to invest strongly in our German presence.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, far left, stands alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Central Asian heads of state at the Russia-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Oct. 14, 2022. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office/AP)/Editing by Germán & CoIn Central Asia, a hidden pipeline supplies Russia with banned tech
Moscow looks south for partners willing to help it circumvent bans on Chinese drones and German electronics
WP by Joby Warrick, July 18, 2023 On the shipping label, the Chinese drones were billed as heavy-duty cropdusters, the kind used by orchards and big farms. But the identity of the buyer — a Russian company that purchased a truckload of the aircraft in early May at nearly $14,000 each — hinted at other possible uses.
The drones’ potential military value, ironically, had been noted by Russia’s government, which last year seized four aircraft of the same model in eastern Ukraine and claimed that Kyiv was planning to use them for chemical warfare. The sturdy all-weather quadcopters are built to carry payloads of nearly 70 pounds and are designed to glide at treetop level trailing a fog of liquid chemicals.
Whatever their intended use, the drones were on the final leg of a trek across Central Asia when they were intercepted by customs officers near the border between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. To U.S. officials recounting the events weeks later, the episode was unusual: More often than not, they said, such goods pass into Russia uninterrupted.
The seizure of the drones was hailed as a rare victory in a whack-a-mole effort to halt the flow of banned hardware and electronics pouring into Russia in support of its war effort in Ukraine. Blocked from procuring military goods from Western countries, Moscow has increasingly looked for help from the former Soviet states of Central Asia, some of which are historically and financially bound to Russia but also trade extensively with Europe and China.
Biden administration officials say they are particularly concerned about the role played by Kyrgyzstan, the country from which the drone shipment originated. The mountainous, landlocked country of 6.7 million people was once the southern frontier of the Soviet empire, and it is now home to numerous businesses that have become a conduit for Western and Asian goods that Russia can’t legally obtain elsewhere, officials said in interviews.
Many Russian drones contain Western parts and technology, U.S. officials say
Following the Kremlin’s Ukraine invasion — and with greater intensity in recent months — Kyrgyzstan witnessed a striking expansion of import-export companies that do business mainly with Russia. The firms are profiting from soaring sales of sanctioned Chinese and European goods — from drones and aircraft parts to rifle scopes and advanced bomb circuitry — most of which are flown or shipped overland to companies in Russia, said a senior U.S. official with detailed knowledge about the transactions.
After months of fruitless visits to the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek by a stream of U.S. and European diplomats, the Biden administration is preparing new economic measures to pressure the country to halt the trade, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the plans. The actions, which in the past have included sanctions or a “blacklisting” of companies accused of violations, could come as early as this week, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatically sensitive deliberations.
“Kyrgyzstan, while small relative to other countries, is a clear example of every factor at play at once to create an unacceptably [sanctions] evasion-friendly environment,” the senior official said.
Publicly accessible trade documents offer hints about the scale of the Kyrgyz shadow bazaar. Records show the overall volume of Kyrgyzstan’s exports to Russia skyrocketed in 2022, rising by 250 percent over the previous year, before the invasion of Ukraine. For some items, such as rifle scopes, there was no previous record of Kyrgyzstan ever exporting such goods to Russia.
Trade documents also suggest a high level of coordination with Moscow’s procurement efforts. Records from early this year show Kyrgyz companies making bulk purchases of sensitive electronics — including hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of specialized semiconductors and voltage amplifiers — from Chinese and South Korean companies in February and March. A nearly identical quantity of the same types of electronics was exported from Kyrgyzstan to Russia over the same period, the documents show.
The Russian firms that received the goods were in most cases known suppliers to Russia’s defense industry, the senior U.S. official said. The apparent choreography of the third-party transactions was seen as the work of Russia’s intelligence services, which U.S. officials say are now directly involved, along with a range of war profiteers, in schemes aimed at circumventing economic sanctions.
The Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Kyrgyz Embassy in Washington, responding to a request for comment, said in a statement that the country’s leaders were committed to adhering to international regulations and cracking down on contraband and other illicit trade. The statement attributed the surge in trade with Moscow in part to improvements in electronic systems for tracking the flow of goods across the country’s borders.
While the embassy acknowledged previous reports about sanctions violations, it said critics failed to take into account the “real economic context.”
“Kyrgyzstan and Russia are the members of Eurasian Economic Union and, in general, Russia is one of our main trading partners,” it said. “More than a million of our citizens work in Russia.”
Current and former U.S. officials acknowledged Kyrgyzstan’s geopolitical and economic difficulties, while noting that some of the country’s neighbors appear to be making a more sincere effort to enforce the sanctions, even in the face of enormous pressure from Moscow.
“Geography, proximity and influence matter,” said Juan Zarate, who served under the George W. Bush administration as the Treasury Department’s inaugural assistant secretary for combating terrorist financing and financial crimes. In countries such as Kyrgyzstan, he said, there must be “political will to cut preexisting relationships, along with the courage and capacity to enforce sanctions” — even when such actions run the risk of “upsetting a dangerous neighbor.”
Kyrgyz officials declined to comment on the reported attempt to export Chinese drones to Russia, although the events were described in local news accounts in both Kyrgyzstan and neighboring Kazakhstan, where the aircraft were confiscated two months ago.
The batch of Chinese DJI Agras T-30 cropduster drones had been acquired by a Kyrgyz firm, with plans to resell them to a company in Russia. The 14 drones were being shipped overland through Kazakhstan when they were flagged by customs officials for lacking the proper export paperwork. The aircraft ultimately were impounded by the Kazakhs and never reached the Russian border, according to Kazakh media accounts. Officials at the Kazakh Embassy in Washington declined to comment about the incident.
The same Chinese manufacturer, DJI, produces similar drones for use by law-enforcement agencies, including in the United States, where the company’s models remain popular despite bans or curbs on federal use of the aircraft since 2017. DJI suspended sales of its drones to Ukraine and Russia after the February 2022 invasion, perhaps explaining why the Russian purchaser of the T-30s used an indirect route in trying to acquire them.
Both Ukraine and Russia have fully embraced the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, for a wide range of military missions, including assaults on military and civilian targets with self-detonating drones, as well as the use of lightweight “hobby” UAVs to drop small munitions on troop positions and vehicles. Both sides rely on drones for surveillance and artillery spotting. Moscow has expanded its arsenal with hundreds of powerful attack drones purchased from Iran, and it has recently begun work on a Russian assembly line to manufacture Iranian-designed UAVs.
Iran seeks billions in Russian technology as payment for drones
There is no record of Agras T-30 drones being deployed on a battlefield, although the aircraft possesses military utility because of its 66-pound payload capacity, which could be used for dropping bombs or moving weapons, said Charles Rollet, a researcher for IPVM, a publication that monitors the global surveillance industry. While relatively noisy compared to traditional military reconnaissance drones, the T-30 can fly at altitudes of up 14,000 feet and operate in all weather, day or night, according to the manufacturer’s website. It is equipped with an array of sophisticated sensors, including cameras, radar and a searchlight for illuminating objects on the ground.
After the Russian military seized the four T-30s from Ukraine last year during fighting near the eastern city of Kherson, Kremlin officials suggested in Russian media reports that Kyiv intended to use them in chemical attacks against Russian troops. There is no evidence that Ukraine has used or possesses chemical weapons.
U.S. intelligence officials have long worried, however, that Russia might resort to using its known stockpile of chemical agents to halt advancing Ukrainian troops.
Russian forces appear to have used noxious gases — believed to be variations of tear gas — against Ukrainians in at least two incidents since the invasion, according to intercepted Russian communications revealed in top-secret documents leaked on Discord and obtained by The Washington Post, as well as battlefield video broadcast by Russian news media.
Britain and the United States have officially registered their concerns about the incidents, which, if confirmed, would constitute a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, of which Russia is a signatory. Investigators have previously accused Moscow of using banned chemical weapons in assassination attempts and for providing cover to its ally Syria after that country’s use of deadly nerve agents against its own citizens.
Although the T-30 drones never reached their intended destination, U.S. officials say it is inevitable that Russia will try again to obtain unmanned aerial technology it lacks, perhaps using other partners and methods, or different kinds of aircraft.
U.S. officials acknowledge that, in most cases, countries that are determined to obtain banned goods eventually succeed, although rigorous enforcement of trade embargoes can eventually drive up costs of doing business.
“The Russians are motivated to obtain the supplies of weapons and technology they need to sustain their military and war in Ukraine, and they will do whatever is necessary,” said Zarate, the former Treasury official and now co-managing partner of K2 Integrity, a risk advisory company.
Zarate likened sanctions enforcement to weeding an unruly garden: a “long, complicated effort, with emphasis on continuous enforcement, crackdowns on evasion, and demonstration that the Russian economy will continue to be isolated and risky for anyone electing to do business with Russia.”
Image: NYT/Editing by Germán & CoTrump’s Conspirators Are Facing the Music, Finally
NYT by *Norman Eisen and Ryan Goodman, July 18, 2023*Mr. Eisen is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Mr. Goodman is a law professor at New York University.We’ve reached a turning point in the effort to ensure there are consequences for those who deliberately attempt to undermine our democracy: Michigan’s attorney general, Dana Nessel, charged 16 Republican leaders in her state on Tuesday for their role as fake electors working to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The charges, coming on the heels of news that the special counsel Jack Smith has informed Donald Trump that he’s a target of the Department of Justice’s investigation into the Capitol riot, mean we are witnessing a new and necessary phase in this quest for accountability, one in which the federal and state wheels of justice work to hold people accountable not only for the violence on Jan. 6, but also for what got us there: the alleged scheme to interfere with the transfer of power.
The charges in Michigan will surely meet criticism on all sides. Some will say the case is not broad or bold enough, that Mr. Trump and the other alleged national ringleaders should have been charged as well. Others will say Ms. Nessel cast too wide a net, pulling in low-level party functionaries who did not know better. We think those critiques are misconceived. Ms. Nessel got it just right, prosecuting crimes firmly within her jurisdiction, while opening the way for federal authorities to net even bigger fish.
Ms. Nessel brought the same eight counts against all 16 defendants. The offenses include conspiracy to commit forgery, since the defendants are accused of signing documents stating they were the qualified electors (they were not), and publishing forged documents by circulating these materials to federal and state authorities. On paper, the penalties for the offenses range from five to 14 years, but sentencing in this case would presumably be lower than that maximum.
Until now there have been no charges centered on the fake electors plot. For that reason alone, Michigan’s action brings a sense of needed accountability for those who fanned the rioters’ passions leading up to Jan. 6 by spinning a false narrative about a stolen election.
Michigan saw some of the most outrageous fake electoral certificates to emerge during the period leading up to the Capitol riot. Unlike the fake certificates in Pennsylvania and New Mexico, the Michigan documents did not include a disclaimer that they were to be used only in the case of litigation. What’s more, the documents contained more outright false statements than simply declaring that the signers were the lawful electors of the winning candidate.
For example, they state that the electors “convened and organized in the State Capitol,” when, according to the attorney general, they were hidden away in the basement of the state Republican headquarters. (It seems likely that the fake electors included this lie because Michigan law requires presidential electors to meet in the Capitol — a requirement and legal problem that a Trump campaign legal adviser, Kenneth Chesebro, had flagged in his confidential memorandum setting out the scheme.)
In proving these cases, establishing intent will be key. Here, there are several indicators that the defendants may have been aware of the illicit nature of their gathering. According to congressional testimony from the state Republican Party’s chairwoman at the time, Laura Cox, the group originally planned to meet inside the Capitol and hide overnight, so they could vote in the building the following day. Ms. Cox said she told a lawyer working with the Trump campaign and supposedly organizing the fake electors “in no uncertain terms that that was insane and inappropriate,” and “a very, very bad idea and potentially illegal.”
As she put it, Ms. Cox was “very uncomfortable” with facilitating a meeting of the fake elector group, and said so at the time in accord with her lawyers’ opinion. Ms. Cox even urged the group to draft a significantly more measured document simply “stating that if perhaps something were to happen in the courts, they were willing and able to serve as electors from Michigan for Donald Trump.” Her advice was not followed.
At the time the fake electors met to allegedly forge their documents, they should have been aware that state officials had certified the election results for Joe Biden — it was national and state news. By that point, there was no prospect of changing that outcome through either litigation or legislative action. On the day prosecutors say the fake electors met, two of the most powerful Republicans in the state acknowledged as much. Mike Shirkey, the majority leader in the State Senate, and Lee Chatfield, the House speaker, both issued statements declaring the presidential race over. Mr. Shirkey said that Michigan’s “Democratic slate of electors should be able to proceed with their duty” without the threat of harassment or violence.
The fake electors were told they were not allowed to bring their phones into the meeting at the Republican headquarters that day, according to testimony one of them gave congressional investigators. They were instructed to maintain secrecy and not to share any details about what was occurring. That secrecy suggests that they knew what they were doing was wrong.
Michigan’s former secretary of state, Terri Lynn Land, who had been designated a Trump elector, declined to participate in the proceedings, saying, according to Ms. Cox’s testimony, she was not comfortable doing so.
With these facts, it would have been unthinkable for the state attorney general to choose not to prosecute the Michigan 16. Ms. Nessel’s office has regularly brought prosecutions, some of them against her fellow Democrats, centered on false documents in connection with elections. The case of the fake electors is far more egregious than most of those other cases: The defendants here were politically engaged individuals who should have been aware of the election results, as well as the flat rejection by the courts and Michigan Legislature of the Trump campaign’s claims of voter fraud.
To be sure, some critics of the case may still think that the Michigan attorney general should have gone after Mr. Trump and his top lieutenants, who helped organize the false electors. But prosecutors have a responsibility first to pursue those individuals within their jurisdiction. By focusing solely on the figures who undertook their acts in Michigan, Ms. Nessel is wisely insulating her case against charges that she overreached, exceeding her jurisdiction.
Of course, broader prosecutions may still be justified. Reporting indicates that the district attorney for Fulton County, Ga., Fani Willis, may be considering a different kind of wide-ranging case, involving state RICO crimes. Unlike the Michigan prosecution, her case may focus on Mr. Trump’s direct efforts to pressure state election officials — efforts that were caught on tape — and Rudy Giuliani’s attempt to provide false statements of election fraud to state officials.
If broad-based indictments ultimately emerge out of Georgia, and are supported by the facts and appropriate law, then we would welcome it. That is part of the genius of American democracy: The states, which are responsible for running our elections, are laboratories of both democracy and of accountability.
Ms. Nessel’s case also leaves a clear lane for Mr. Smith, the special counsel. She has avoided charging high-level national individuals whom Mr. Smith is apparently investigating. If anything, her case provides greater foundation for Mr. Smith to act, and he now seems to be following through. If Ms. Nessel can move against these individuals in Michigan, Mr. Smith can and should do the same against the ringleaders. Together, they can hold both the foot soldiers and their organizers accountable for their actions leading up to the Capitol riot.
Labourers work next to electricity pylons in Mumbai, India, October 13, 2021. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/Global power demand growth to rebound in 2024 after slowdown, IEA says
The IEA data also suggests that renewable energy will play a crucial role in meeting the projected growth in energy consumption for both this year and next. In fact, renewable sources are predicted to surpass one third of the world's total power supply, marking a significant milestone. This demonstrates the increasing prominence of renewable energy in the global energy landscape.
Reuters by Forrest Crellin, EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, July 19, 2023PARIS, July 19 (Reuters) - An ongoing energy crisis and an economic downturn is expected to slow global power demand growth in 2023, but a probable rebound in 2024 means more renewable capacity needs to be developed, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
The global growth rate for energy consumption is set to slow to slightly less than 2% in 2023, down from 2.3% in 2022, which was also down from the five-year pre-COVID 19 average of 2.4%.
For 2024, the rate is expected to rise to 3.3%, as the economic outlook improves, the IEA data showed.
The Paris-based agency predicted renewable energy would cover the expected growth this year and next and power from renewable sources would exceed one third of the total global power supply for the first time next year.
However, hydropower has declined, falling about 2% in 2020-2022 compared to 1990-2016 figures, which represents about 240 terawatt-hours, or the annual consumption of Spain.
"Anticipating challenges on hydropower related to climate change, and planning accordingly, will be crucial for the efficient and sustainable use of hydro resources," the IEA said.
The renewable growth should help to cut global emissions, as emissions increases in China and India are expected to be offset by declines in other countries where renewable deployment is growing and natural gas continues to replace coal, the IEA said.
The European Union alone accounts for 40% of the total decline in emissions from power generation, the IEA data showed.
In the first half this year, the EU recorded a 6% decline in power demand as energy-intensive industries, including aluminum, steel, paper, and chemical industries, cut their use in response to high prices. A relatively mild winter also had a more limited impact on reducing demand, the IEA said.
Wholesale electricity prices, have fallen significantly from records hit last year as a result of the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but average prices in Europe are still more than double their 2019 levels, India's are up 80%, and Japan's more than 30%.
Prices in the United States, however, have retreated almost to 2019 levels. The country's demand is expected to decline by 1.7% in 2023 due to slowing economic growth, and to rebound in 2024 to 2%, down from the 2.6% recorded in 2022.
In China, demand is expected to grow 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024, after a moderate 3.7% rise in 2022, the IEA data showed. Increased use of cooling to cope with summer heatwaves is expected to drive the demand growth there this year.
India's consumption is expected to rise by 6.8% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024 - when it is expected to surpass that of Japan and Korea combined - but down from the 8.4% rise recorded in 2022.
The growth is expected to come from increased use of household appliances, a rise in electrical machinery usage, an increase in electric vehicles, and greater demand for cooling.