News round-up, July 18, 2023

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Quote of the days…

Pioneers in Green Aviation: Norwegian Electric Planes

The aviation industry, widely acknowledged for its significant environmental impact, has become a focal point in the battle against climate change. In this regard, Norway has emerged as a potential pioneer, as it aims to transition all short-haul flights to electric planes by 2040.

Spiegel 

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Most read…

Modi and India’s Diaspora: A Complex Love Affair Making Global Waves

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to fuse his image to the economic and political power of Indians abroad. They voice both pride and worry in return.

NYT By Damien Cave, reporting from Washington, Silicon Valley and Sydney, Australia, July 18, 2023

Russia Stops Ukraine Grain Deal, Shaking World Food Markets

Moscow, which has repeatedly complained that the U.N.-brokered agreement is one-sided in Ukraine’s favor, said it could return to the deal if its demands were met.

NYT By Matthew Mpoke Bigg, Ivan Nechepurenko, Liz Alderman and Farnaz Fassihi, July 17, 2023

Gem Hunters Found the Lithium America Needs… Maine Won’t Let Them Dig It Up

The world’s richest known lithium deposit lies deep in the woods of western Maine, in a yawning, sparkling mouth of white and brown rocks that looks like a landslide carved into the side of Plumbago Mountain.

TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS AND KATE COUGH / MAINE MONITOR, JULY 17, 2023 

Germany adds 60% more onshore wind power in H1 but pace seen too slow

The drop in Russian fossil fuel exports to Germany last year highlighted the hazards of relying on imports and emphasized the urgency of implementing a local energy plan.

Reuters by Vera Eckert, July 18, 2023

Britain opens small nuclear reactor competition, launches new nuclear body

Ambitious Plan: Boosting Nuclear Power to Meet Climate Targets

Reuters by Susanna Twidale, July 18, 2023

Pioneers in Green Aviation: Could Norwegian Electric Planes Be a Model for the Rest of the World?

The global aviation industry has a massive climate problem, and many are looking to Norway for a possible solution. The country wants all short-haul flights to be conducted with electric planes as early as 2040. But doubts persist about whether the technology will be ready.

Spiegel by Marcus Efler, 18.07.2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India at a rally in an arena in Sydney, in May.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times

Modi and India’s Diaspora: A Complex Love Affair Making Global Waves

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to fuse his image to the economic and political power of Indians abroad. They voice both pride and worry in return.

NYT By Damien Cave, reporting from Washington, Silicon Valley and Sydney, Australia, July 18, 2023

On the final night of his visit to Washington in late June, after 15 standing ovations in Congress and an opulent White House dinner tailored to his vegetarian tastes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India set time aside to court and be cheered by another important constituency: the Indian diaspora.

Backstage at the Kennedy Center, as business leaders in bespoke suits and fine silk saris filtered into a 1,200-seat theater, Mr. Modi met with a handful of entrepreneurs. Most were young, educated in India, made rich in America, and eager to connect with the man who presents himself as a guru to the world, preaching how this is “the century of India.”

“Thank you for lifting the image and spirits of Indian Americans,” Umesh Sachdev, 37, told the prime minister, explaining that he was the founder of Uniphore, an artificial intelligence business valued at $2.5 billion, with offices in India and California. Mr. Modi tapped Mr. Sachdev’s shoulder and exclaimed “waah,” or wow in Hindi.

With an emphasis on national pride, Mr. Modi and his conservative Hindu-first Bharatiya Janata Party have cultivated a surprisingly strong relationship with India’s successful diaspora. The bond has been strengthened by a global political machine, supercharged under Mr. Modi with party offices in dozens of countries and thousands of volunteers. And it has allowed Mr. Modi to fuse his own image — and his rubric of elevating India — with superstar executives and powerful, often more liberal constituencies in the United States, Britain, Australia and many other nations.

No other world leader seems to draw such a steady flow of diaspora welcome parties, most recently in Paris, New York and Cairo, or giant audiences, including 20,000 fans at a rally in Australia in May. Mr. Modi was in France on Friday as the guest of honor at the annual Bastille Day parade, and with elections next year in India, the pattern has been set.

“The B.J.P. leadership wants to show its strength abroad, to create strength at home,” said Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert on South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

But in some corners of the diaspora, strains are emerging. Many Indian professionals who cheer when Mr. Modi boasts that India has become the world’s fifth-largest economy — who gush about new infrastructure and more modern cities — also fear that his government’s Hindu-supremacist policies and growing intolerance of scrutiny will keep India from truly standing as a superpower and democratic alternative to China.

Vinod Khosla, a prominent Silicon Valley investor, who has often pushed for closer U.S.-India relations, said in an interview that India’s greatest risk is a disruption to economic growth from the instability and inequality inflamed by Hindu nationalism. Others worry that Mr. Modi, in a bubble of political celebrity and religious certitude, is ignoring the fragility of positive momentum in a complex, diverse and volatile nation of 1.4 billion people.

“The demographics only work for India if there is progressivism and inclusion,” said Arun Subramony, a private equity banker in Washington with digital, health and other investments in India. “The party has to make an extra effort to make clear that India is for everyone.”

Techno-Utopian Dreams

The bond between the diaspora and the B.J.P. began with pragmatism — and with the first B.J.P. prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who promoted information technology as the solution to India’s development problems in the late 1990s.

Kanwal Rekhi, the first Indian American to take a company public on the Nasdaq, heard Mr. Vajpayee’s speeches and thought: This guy gets it. He asked for a meeting and arrived in New Delhi in April 2000, leading a group called The IndUS Entrepreneurs, or TiE.

At the prime minister’s residence, there were paratroopers on the roof and tanks nearby, vestiges of a recent conflict with Pakistan. Mr. Rekhi was there promising that entrepreneurship could bridge divides — India and Pakistan, Muslims and Hindus. Mr. Vajpayee welcomed their techno-utopianism.

“He asked: ‘What is your sense of India and Indians?’ Then he said, ‘Our future is very bright, and you need to show us the way,’” Mr. Rekhi said in an interview.

So began a relationship with the diaspora that reversed decades of rancor, when those who left with university degrees were seen as traitors to India’s needs. Once Mr. Vajpayee made clear that he saw Indians overseas as guides and consultants, that is what they became.

TiE made several recommendations, bolstered by Stanford professors, and Mr. Vajpayee followed their suggestions. In 2001, for example, his government loosened its monopoly on internet infrastructure, allowing more private competition.

Naren Bakshi, another tech executive in the meetings, recalled that Mr. Vajpayee insisted that the diaspora also play a direct role.

“If you care for India,” he told them, “come to India.”

Mr. Bakshi bought a home near where he had grown up in the state of Rajasthan, and he has spent four months a year in India ever since.

In the early 2000s, he also helped found the India Community Center in Milpitas, Calif., a sprawling complex in a South Asian suburb of San Jose that has become a hub for yoga, Muslim and Hindu holidays, weddings — and, increasingly, meetings with visiting Indian officials.

“People here are very much involved,” Raj Desai, the center’s president, said over tea one recent morning.

In Silicon Valley and elsewhere, Overseas Friends of the B.J.P., the party’s international arm, has become an established presence. Helping with immigration issues and other challenges, its members supplement and compete with India’s understaffed corps of around 950 foreign service officers — a fraction of the roughly 16,000 who work for the United States.

Hindus from the diaspora celebrating the Ganesh Festival in 2015 in Jersey City, N.J. Mr. Vajpayee made clear that he saw Indians overseas as guides and consultants for their country.Credit...Kirsten Luce for The New York Times

Last year — even though voting in India’s elections must be done in person — the B.J.P. sponsored events with party officials in Texas, New Jersey, Washington, D.C., and North Carolina, as well as several events at the India Community Center in California, according to its mandatory registration filings as a foreign agent.

Visiting officials also bring together smaller groups for dinners and discussion. Mr. Sachdev, the Uniphore chief executive, said he had gone to several such gatherings, adding that the conversations focused on business policy more than politics.

He and other attendees said they had never been asked to contribute to B.J.P. campaigns.

But political scientists believe that the B.J.P. and Hindu organizations draw a significant flow of money from the diaspora. In 2018, Mr. Modi’s government rushed through Parliament a law allowing Indians living abroad and foreign companies with subsidiaries in India to make undisclosed political donations. Spending on India’s 2019 campaign topped $8 billion, making it the most expensive election in the world.

“There’s an absence of transparency, and it’s by design,” said Gilles Verniers, a senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.

In the United States, the B.J.P. registered its presence — a requirement for any foreign political party — only after questions were raised about the financing of a giant “Howdy Modi” celebration in 2019 in Houston with President Donald J. Trump.

In Australia, the organization still does not appear in the foreign transparency register, despite the costs associated with Mr. Modi’s rally in May at Sydney’s Qudos Bank Arena, where hundreds of people lined up outside for selfies with twin Modi cardboard cutouts framing a giant sign with “We ❤️ Modi” in bright white lights.

Visitors lining up to take photos with a cardboard cut out of Mr. Modi during a rally in Sydney. Groups had reached the event by bus and flights chartered by a local B.J.P. chapter.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times

“He’s the leader of the century,” said Meera Rawat, after snapping a photo with one of the cardboard Modis.

Her group had reached Sydney on a bus chartered by a local B.J.P. chapter. Several flights were also chartered by the party.

Asked about the process, B.J.P. officials in Australia said everything was “fully funded by the local Indian community and businesses.”

Albel Singh Kang, secretary of the Australian Sikh Association, said his group had initially been recruited for the event. When organizers declined to identify its funders, he passed. Indian Muslim leaders also stayed away, noting that members of Mr. Modi’s party have called for Muslims to be murdered — without strong condemnation from the prime minister.

Pushing for Change

Many Indians overseas fret about bloodshed in India, where religious minorities make up 20 percent of the population, and where Hindu mobs are regularly accused of lynching people, mostly Muslims, for their food, style of dress, or interfaith marriages. But India’s emigrant families also worry about violence leeching into the countries where they have moved.

In 2021, men armed with bats and hammers attacked four Sikh students in a car in Sydney. After one of the men served a six-month sentence, he returned to India, where he received a hero’s welcome. Tensions among Indian immigrants in Britain, Canada and the United States have also been rising in recent years, along with vandalism and threats.

“The fact is, there are divisions within India, and they are bound to express themselves because politics doesn’t stop at the national shores,” said C. Raja Mohan, a senior fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi.

Rising concerns about polarization are often overlooked amid the Modi pageantry. At the diaspora event in Sydney, Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, compared Mr. Modi to Bruce Springsteen, calling India’s leader “The Boss,” to huge cheers.

Sundar Pichai, chief executive officer of Alphabet Inc., and his wife, Anjali Pichai, at the White House in June. Mr. Modi relies on an exceptionally successful diaspora to spread the message of a strong India.Credit...Samuel Corum for The New York Times

In Washington, where 7,000 Indian Americans joined him in an exuberant celebration on the White House lawn, Mr. Modi said at a news conference that discrimination against minorities did not exist under his government. A few hours later, human rights activists gathered outside the gate, including Muslims who had fled to the United States after facing persecution in India. The TV crews had already moved on.

Behind the scenes, American officials say there has been more nudging of Mr. Modi.

Ro Khanna, co-chair of the Congressional Caucus on India and Indian Americans, who represents the district that includes the India Community Center, said that he had spoken to Mr. Modi about the importance of pluralism.

“I want us to be very much focused on strengthening the U.S.-India relationship under the principle of India’s founding and our founding,” Mr. Khanna said, “and not a celebration of any particular individual.”

Some business leaders say that Mr. Modi deserves their unflagging support. “What’s important to me is, has he been able to put India on a trajectory of growth and global leadership?” said Mr. Sachdev of Uniphore. The United Nations recently reported that India’s economy had lifted 415 million people out of poverty in the past 15 years.

Others have started mixing praise with pragmatic concern. Mr. Khosla, the prominent investor, said it was time to recognize that the government’s favoring of Hindus “can take attention off the principal path of economic progress, and set it back, and set back global relationships.”

Mr. Modi with President Joe Biden last month. Behind the scenes, American officials say there has been more nudging of Mr. Modi about the importance of pluralism, along with other topics.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

Even in Washington’s supportive diaspora crowds, there was a blend of pride and appeals for moderation, for equal opportunity and constructive critique.

Mr. Subramony, the private equity banker, said he grew up in southern India without regular water or electricity, in a compound of 10 families practicing four different religions. He called Mr. Modi “a very quick learner” who would hopefully defend India’s more tolerant values.

“It’s also our responsibility, the people who are feeding Modi, who are being inspired by what is going on in India,” he said. “It is our duty to make him change.”

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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Image: Ukraine is a major exporter of foodstuffs, and Africa, in particular, relies on grain stored in silos like these, in Marianske, in the southern Dnipro region, in June.Credit...Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

Russia Stops Ukraine Grain Deal, Shaking World Food Markets

Moscow, which has repeatedly complained that the U.N.-brokered agreement is one-sided in Ukraine’s favor, said it could return to the deal if its demands were met.

NYT By Matthew Mpoke Bigg, Ivan Nechepurenko, Liz Alderman and Farnaz Fassihi, July 17, 2023

Russia said on Monday it was withdrawing from a wartime agreement to allow grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea until its demands to loosen sanctions on its own agricultural exports were met, upending a deal that has helped stabilize global food prices and alleviate shortages in parts of Africa and the Middle East.

The agreement, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was struck a year ago, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, to alleviate a global food crisis after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia had blockaded Ukrainian ports, blocking ships from carrying its grain and sending global prices soaring to record highs. The deal has been extended three times, most recently in May. The latest extension expired on Monday.

The United Nations’ secretary general, António Guterres, said he was “deeply disappointed” by Moscow’s decision, and that millions of people facing hunger, as well as consumers confronting a cost-of-living crisis, would “pay a price.” He also said he had sent proposals last week to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to facilitate Moscow’s demands. Mr. Putin never responded directly, a U.N. spokesman said.

Russia has repeatedly complained about the agreement, which it calls one-sided in Ukraine’s favor. Moscow has said that Western sanctions, imposed because of Moscow’s devastating war, have restricted the sale of Russia’s agricultural products, and Moscow has sought guarantees that free up those exports.

In April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry also listed other demands to renew the grain deal: reconnect the state-owned Russian Agricultural Bank to the international SWIFT messaging service that is critical for cross-border payments; lift restrictions on maritime insurance and on the supply of spare parts used in agricultural machinery; end sanctions against fertilizer companies and the people linked to them; and restore an ammonia pipeline that crosses Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, who announced on Monday that the Black Sea grain agreement was “halted,” said, “As soon as the Russian part is fulfilled, the Russian side will immediately return to the implementation of that deal.”

Russia’s announcement came hours after a deadly attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge linking the occupied Crimea Peninsula to mainland Russia. Mr. Peskov said the decision to suspend the grain deal was not connected to the attack.

Ukraine is one of the world’s major exporters of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds and vegetable oil. It has exported 32.9 million tons of grain and other food under the initiative, according to U.N. data. Under the agreement, ships are permitted to pass by Russian naval vessels that kept other vessels from using Ukraine’s ports since the start of Russia’s war. The ships are inspected off the coast of Istanbul, in part to ensure they are not carrying weapons.

The effects of the suspended grain deal were quickly apparent. It rattled wheat markets, seesawing prices and exposing vulnerable countries in Africa and the global south to the prospect of a new round of food insecurity.

Chicago wheat futures, a barometer for global prices, briefly jumped more than 4 percent as the Kremlin’s move jeopardized a key trade route to global markets for grain from Ukraine. Later, prices swung to more than 1 percent lower for the day.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told reporters at the State Department on Monday: “I hope that every country is watching this very closely. They will see that Russia is responsible for denying food to people who are desperately needy around the world.”

John Kirby, a spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, called Russia’s move a “military act of aggression” and said that the United States was already seeing a rise in global wheat, corn and soybean prices.

“We urge the government of Russia to immediately reverse its decision,” he added.

Russia’s decision appears to be part of a broader effort by Mr. Putin to reassert an aura of unassailable authority after a failed mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group, said Timothy Ash, a senior strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London and an expert on Russia and Ukraine.

“It will hurt specific countries dependent on these exports,” Mr. Ash said. But beyond that, “it shows how weak Putin is after the Wagner coup: He is now desperate to take any bit of leverage he can.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Moscow had broken its agreement with the United Nations and with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, rather than with his country, given that Ukraine had made a separate deal with the two mediators over grain. In remarks conveyed by his press office, Mr. Zelensky added that Ukraine was ready to restart shipments if the United Nations and Turkey agreed.

With Black Sea ports closed again, Ukraine may have to redouble its use of alternative routes, exporting grain by truck, train and river barge — journeys that take a longer time than shipping by sea, and cannot handle the same volume.

Mr. Blinken said that the United States would help Ukraine find other means of export, but that “it’s really hard to replace what’s now being lost as a result of Russia weaponizing food.”

Mr. Erdogan said he would speak to Mr. Putin about the agreement and signaled hope that it could be revived. “Despite the statement today, I believe the president of the Russian Federation, my friend Putin, wants the continuation of this humanitarian bridge,” Mr. Erdogan said in Istanbul.

The deal between Ukraine and Russia — which is also a major global supplier of grain, oil and other affordable food products — is particularly important in 14 African nations that depend on the two nations for half of their wheat imports, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. Eritrea is fully dependent on them.

When the grain deal began in July 2022, Célestin Tawamba, the chief executive officer of La Pasta, the largest flour and pasta producer in Cameroon, said, “The noose was tightening, so the deal should help us breathe.”

The initial agreement allowed Ukraine to restart the export of millions of tons of grain that had languished for months. Food prices have dropped over 23 percent from their peak in March 2022, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index. The accord has allowed vital food products to be exported from Ukrainian ports to 45 countries on three continents, the United Nations said.

But again and again, before each negotiated extension has run out, Russia has signaled it might withdraw from the agreement. Last year, after accusing Ukraine of attacking its warships in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol with a swarm of drones, Russia pulled out, halting participation in inspections that were part of the agreement. Then it rejoined in a matter of days.

The collapse of the grain deal dominated the U.N. Security Council’s session on Ukraine on Monday. China, an ally of Russia’s, stopped short of directly condemning Russia for withdrawing from the deal but called on both sides to resume negotiations to restore the pact.

Mr. Guterres said earlier that to help meet Russia’s demands, he had sent Mr. Putin proposals to “remove hurdles” affecting its financial transactions. He said the United Nations had proposed enabling a subsidiary of the Russian Agricultural Bank — one of several institutions barred by Western sanctions from SWIFT because of Russia’s aggression — to regain access with the European Commission, and that the agency had built a bespoke payment mechanism outside of SWIFT for the bank through JP Morgan.

The U.N. spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric, said that Russia’s response to the letter apparently came in the form of Monday’s announcement. Mr. Guterres said, however, that the United Nations intended to start negotiating a new grain proposal with Mr. Putin.

Despite Russia’s move, analysts say, some factors may prevent food prices from surging to the staggering levels seen just after Russia invaded Ukraine.

For one thing, the global commodity price outlook is weaker than a year ago because of a faltering economic recovery in China. A global cost-of-living crisis has been eroding demand more generally, Mr. Ash, the strategist, said. Supply chain stresses are also easing, and manufacturing and production costs have cooled, according to an analysis by Oxford Economics, a research institute.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at the financial services firm StoneX, said that Russia was still dumping cheap wheat on the global market, “so we are not running out of wheat right now.”

“This particular development today may not do a lot to risk world hunger,” he said, “but the continual escalation with no resolution in sight means the risks are still growing.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Mary and Gary Freeman stand in a pit in Newry, Maine, where they have excavated 700 tons of the lithium-bearing mineral spodumene under an exploratory permit, on June 6. The site, also known as Plumbago North, contains some of the largest specimens of spodumene ever uncovered, with some measuring up to 36 feet in length. The state of Maine currently bars them from further extracting the rock. /Garrick Hoffman—The Maine Monitor/Editing by Germán & Co

Gem Hunters Found the Lithium America Needs. Maine Won’t Let Them Dig It Up

The world’s richest known lithium deposit lies deep in the woods of western Maine, in a yawning, sparkling mouth of white and brown rocks that looks like a landslide carved into the side of Plumbago Mountain.

TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS AND KATE COUGH / MAINE MONITOR, JULY 17, 2023 

Mary Freeman and her husband Gary found the deposit five years ago while hunting for tourmaline, a striking, multi-colored gemstone found in the region.

The Freemans make their living selling lab supplies through the Florida-based company they founded 40 years ago, Awareness Technology. But their true love is digging for gemstones, which has brought them for years to Mary’s home state of Maine, the site of some of the best tourmaline hunting in the world.

Since 2003, they’ve been buying up property parcels, studying core samples and old geological maps to determine where to try digging next, then spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on blasting and equipment. The couple has dug more than a mile of tunnels in pursuit of beautiful stones, and many of their finds—like blue elbaite and rich watermelon tourmaline—have wound up on display at the Maine Mineral & Gem Museum in nearby Bethel.

Now, the Freemans want to expand this pit, near the town of Newry, Maine, so they can mine spodumene, crystals that contain the lithium the U.S. needs for the clean energy transition. The timing of their discovery, in what has been named Plumbago North, is remarkable; the Freemans have stumbled across one of the only hard-rock sources of lithium in the U.S. at a time when the material is desperately needed for the clean energy transition. By 2040, the world will need at least 1.1 million metric tons of lithium annually, more than ten times what it currently produces, according to projections by the International Energy Agency. Should the Maine deposit be mined, it could be worth as much as $1.5 billion, a huge windfall for the Freemans and a boon to the Biden Administration’s efforts to jumpstart more domestic mining, processing, and recycling of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements to reduce the U.S.’ dependence on China. This is one of the few lithium deposits in the U.S. currently found in hard rock, which means it is higher-quality and faster to process than lithium mined from brine.

“I consider myself an environmentalist,” says Mary, who on a recent rainy visit to the test quarry, was wearing jeans, a sweater, and hiking boots, her white hair pulled into a low ponytail. Most of the country’s critical minerals are mined elsewhere and processed in China, she adds. “I think [the U.S.] should try to be a little bit more self-sufficient.”

But like just about everywhere in the U.S. where new mines have been proposed, there is strong opposition here. Maine has some of the strictest mining and water quality standards in the country, and prohibits digging for metals in open pits larger than three acres. There have not been any active metal mines in the state for decades, and no company has applied for a permit since a particularly strict law passed in 2017. As more companies begin prospecting in Maine and searching for sizable nickel, copper, and silver deposits, towns are beginning to pass their own bans on industrial mining.

“This is a story that has been played out in Maine for generations,” says Bill Pluecker, a member of the state’s House of Representatives, whose hometown of Warren—a 45-minute drive from the capital city of Augusta—recently voted overwhelmingly in favor of a temporary ban on industrial metal mining after a Canadian company came looking for minerals near a beloved local pond. “We build industries based on the needs of populations not living here and then the bottom drops out, leaving us struggling again to pick up the pieces.”

Mainers often invoke the Callahan Mine in the coastal town of Brooksville as a warning. Tailings from the mine, which operated for several years in the late 1960s, were disposed of in a pile next to a salt marsh and creek. The former mine is now a Superfund site, and a 2013 study by researchers at Dartmouth College found widespread evidence of toxic metals in nearby sediment, water and fish. Cleanup costs, borne by taxpayers, are estimated between $23 million and $45 million.

“Our gold rush mentality regarding oil has fueled the climate crisis,” says State Rep. Margaret O’Neil, who presented a bill last session that would have halted lithium mining for five years while the state worked out rules (the legislation ultimately failed). “As we facilitate our transition away from fossil fuels, we must examine the risks of lithium mining and consider whether the benefits of mining here in Maine justify the harms.”

The Freemans’ point out that they plan to dig for the spodumene, then ship it out of state for processing, so there would be no chemical ponds or tailings piles. They liken the excavation of the minerals to quarrying for granite or limestone, which enjoys a long, rich history in Maine.

Advocates for mining in the U.S. argue that, since the country outsources most of its mining to places with less strict environmental and labor regulations, those harms are currently being born by foreign residents, while putting U.S. manufacturers in the precarious position of depending on faraway sources for the minerals they need. Though there are more than 12,000 active mines in the U.S., the bulk of them are for stone, coal, sand, and gravel.

There is only one operational lithium mine in the U.S., in Nevada, and one operational rare earth element mine, in Mountain Pass, Calif., meaning that the U.S. is dependent on other countries for the materials essential for clean energy technologies like batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels. Even after they’re mined, those materials currently have to be shipped to China for processing since the U.S. does not have any processing facilities.

“If we’re talking about critical metals and materials, we’re so far behind that it’s crazy,” says Corby Anderson, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines. “It’s the dichotomy of the current administration—they have incentives for electric vehicles and all these things, but they need materials like graphite, manganese, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and copper. The only one we mine and refine in this country is copper.”

The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the problems of faraway supply chains; as U.S. consumers shopped online in their homes, the goods they bought, mostly from Asia, experienced lengthy delays at clogged ports. What’s more, diplomatic tensions with China motivated the U.S. government to seek other potential sources for mining, material processing, and recycling.

That’s why, in the pandemic’s aftermath, the Biden Administration launched an initiative to secure a Made in America supply chain for critical minerals. It included billions in funding for companies trying to mine and process critical minerals domestically.

The rocks in Plumbago North would seem to help provide a domestic supply chain for critical minerals; they are thought to be among the largest specimens of spodumene ever found, with crystals of such high quality that in addition to batteries, they could be used to make scientific glassware or computer screens, where the lithium metal would help lower the melting temperature.

The Freemans are just two of the hundreds of people prospecting for critical materials across the country as the U.S. tries to strengthen the domestic supply chain. According to an analysis by Patrick Donnelly, the Great Basin Director for the Center for Biological Diversity, a nonprofit environmental organization, more than 100 companies have staked claims for lithium deposits in the American West. Companies also have applied for permits to mine cobalt in Idaho, nickel and copper in Minnesota, and lithium in North Carolina.

Geologists say there’s also likely a lot more lithium in spodumene deposits across New England. Communities that haven’t had working mines in years may soon find themselves a key source for lithium and other minerals needed for car batteries, solar panels, and many of the objects people will need more of to transition themselves off polluting fossil fuels.

There are good reasons for U.S. communities to have healthy skepticism about mining projects; there is no shortage of examples of a company coming into a community, mining until doing so becomes too expensive, then leaving a polluted site for someone else to clean up. There are more than 50,000 abandoned mines in the western United States alone, 80% of which still need to be remediated. Passage of landmark environmental laws like the Clean Air Act of 1970 and the Clean Water Act of 1972 hasn’t made mining safe enough, environmentalists say.

“All mines pollute in one way or another, and mines are really bad at predicting how much they’re going to pollute,” says Jan Morrill, who studies mining at the environmental group Earthworks, which recently found that 76% of mining companies in the U.S. polluted groundwater after saying they wouldn’t.

One of the most problematic parts of mines is the tailings, or waste, Morrill says: Companies extract the minerals they need, then are left with a giant pile of rock, liquid, and chemicals that they store in ponds or behind dams that sometimes prove unstable. These tailings have caused landslides, excessive dust, and water pollution; more than 300 mine tailing dams have failed worldwide over the last century, according to Christopher Sergeant, a research scientist at the University of Montana.

It is not uncommon for tailings to leak into water, in fact, there is a permit that mine owners can get in case they find their projections were wrong and they need to discharge into U.S. waters.

Even “modern mines” that adhere to the latest U.S. standards—which are among the strictest in the world—still pollute, Earthworks has found. Though there are, theoretically, non-polluting ways to store mine tailings, doing so is much more expensive and mine operators have largely not paid to do so, Morrill says. That’s because, says Aimee Boulanger, executive director of the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, “laws and markets have not fully incentivized companies to do that.”

Indeed, the Biden initiative to increase domestic mining includes, for example, a $700 million loan for Ioneer, a company planning a lithium mine on Rhyolite Ridge in Nevada, where environmental groups say the mine, as proposed, would cause the extinction of an endangered species called Tiehm’s buckwheat. The Administration is also spending $115 million to help Talon Nickel build a battery minerals processing facility in North Dakota, but the potential mine they would source from, in Minnesota, is opposed by Indigenous groups and environmentalists who fear it could contaminate wells in the area.

Still, the U.S. has a more rigorous regulatory environment than many other countries, she says, and there are domestic mines that even some environmentalists support, like the Stillwater Mine in Montana. Community organizations there signed a Good Neighbor Agreement in 2000 with the Sibanye-Stillwater Mining Company allowing the firm to extract platinum and palladium—while also establishing clear and enforceable water standards, restrictions to minimize local traffic, and third-party auditors to ensure the mine adheres to the standards it set out. The mine is now one of the top employers and private-sector income generators in Montana.

But advocates had to force the Agreement; three grassroots organizations sued to stop the construction of the mine, and after a year of negotiations, the mining company and grassroots groups agreed to the contract instead of going to court. With support from elected officials trying to find ways to mine more critical minerals in the U.S., companies may not feel the need to make similar promises to the local community.

Environmental concerns aren’t the only problem with mining, Morrill says. The history of mining in the U.S. is linked to colonialism; Christopher Columbus was looking for gold when he stumbled across North America, and as Europeans expanded into the continent, they took land from Indigenous people to mine for gold, silver, and other metals.

Today, mining in the U.S. often encroaches on Indigenous land. Under mining laws in the U.S. that date to 1872, anyone can stake a claim on federal public lands and apply for permits to start mining if they find “valuable” mineral deposits there. Most lithium, cobalt, and nickel mines are within 35 miles of a Native American reservation, Morrill says, largely because in the aftermath of the 1849 gold rush, the U.S. military removed tribes to reservations not far from mineral deposits in the West. In one particularly controversial project, the mining company Rio Tinto wants to build a copper mine on Oak Flat, Ariz., a desert area adjacent to an Apache reservation that Indigenous groups have used for centuries to conduct cultural ceremonies.

Yet fears about the effects of climate change are escalating the pressure on local communities to get out of the way of mines, says Thea Riofrancos, an associate professor of political science at Providence College who studies mining and the green energy transition. She and other scholars have questioned whether projections that the world will face lithium shortages by 2025 are accurate; recycling more batteries and transitioning away from private vehicles to more public transportation, for example, could reduce our long-term need for lithium-ion energy storage.

“We should think about what is driving this demand, why does this rush feel so intensive, why is there not a version where we are going to try and do this transition with the least amount of mining possible?” Riofrancos says.

Most environmentalists agree that the 1872 mining law needs to be updated and there are several bills in Congress that would do so. The Clean Energy Minerals Reform Act of 2023, for example, introduced by Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) in May, would require more tribal consultation and change how mining is approved on federal lands.

Finding a way to mine in the U.S. could help address a moral quandary, that we consume these materials but ask other countries to bear the brunt of their extraction, says Boulanger, with IRMA.

“There’s an argument to be made that if we’re going to use these materials, and we live in the most consumptive country in the world, we shouldn’t be making other countries be the bank account of our natural resources,” she says.

If lawmakers and regulators can’t agree on how to mine on U.S. soil, it could leave the U.S. susceptible to essentially outsourcing its mining problems to less-regulated countries. For example, last October, the Department of Energy used the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to give a $141.7 million grant to Piedmont Lithium, which is building a plant in Tennessee to expand U.S. supply of lithium hydroxide, used in long-range batteries for electric vehicles. In March, Blue Orca Capital, a hedge fund, said it was “shorting,” or betting against the stock of Piedmont Lithium, alleging that the spodumene the firm plans to refine into lithium at its Tennessee facility was guaranteed by bribes to the son of a high-level politician in Ghana—“because of corruption,” those raw materials are likely to never come to fruition, the hedge fund says. Piedmont denies the allegations and says in a statement provided to TIME that the Minerals Income Investment Fund of Ghana told the company that it has valid licenses and permits for all its current activities.

Most of the proposed critical materials mines in the U.S. are not near a big population center—or economic activity, and some communities are in favor of a mine for the jobs it would create. But the proposed locations could instead lead to situations where sparsely populated communities don’t learn about a planned mine until it’s too late to stop it. “It can feel really fast—all of a sudden an enormous project is being proposed next door to you, it took years for the company to prospect but you didn’t hear about it ‘til now,” says Riofrancos.

The Freemans’ mine is not one of these projects. Though it is five miles from the nearest town, Maine is going through an extensive review process to decide whether to let the couple keep digging. Earlier in 2023, there were seven bills in the legislature regarding the potential of mining lithium in Maine. Lawmakers ultimately settled on legislation that may open the door to extracting the Freemans’ lithium by allowing larger open pit metal mines, so long as developers can prove they won’t pollute groundwater and the local environment. But the new law will require changing the state’s mining regulations, which may mean it could be years before the couple is able to start digging in earnest.

The Freemans say their mine would not pollute the surrounding land and water, as the chemical composition of the crystals and the rocks around them is such that they would not dissolve into dangerous acid when exposed to air and water. Geologists that TIME/Maine Monitor spoke with agree with that assessment. Further, the crystals, says Mary, would be shipped out of state in large chunks for processing, so there would be no chemical ponds or tailings.

Many geologists agree that the Freemans’ proposal would not be as disruptive as other proposed mines across the country. Other metals (like nickel, silver, and zinc) typically occur in bands of rock deep below the surface that contain iron sulfides, which create sulfuric acid when exposed to air and water, polluting waterways for decades, a phenomenon known as acid mine drainage. Some spodumene crystals at Plumbago North, by contrast, have been naturally exposed to air and water for hundreds of millions of years and not broken down.

On a visit to the test quarry this spring, Gary Freeman pointed out one large piece of spodumene lying at the bottom of a nearby brook, the water over it rushing fast and clear, not the rusty orange of an acid-contaminated stream. (The waterway is known, fittingly, as Spodumene Brook.) “The water is so good Poland Spring wants to bottle it and sell it,” says Mary.

Still, Morrill, of Earthworks, says there’s just not enough research about the effects of hard rock spodumene mining to say for sure that the mine wouldn’t harm the environment. Since so many people in Maine depend on recreation and tourism for their livelihoods, she says, it makes the most sense to keep protective regulations in place.

Maine’s Department of Environmental Protection has rejected the Freemans’ request to consider the land a quarry, and is instead classifying spodumene as a metallic mineral. As the law stands, the Freemans will have to apply for permits under Maine’s 2017 Metallic Mineral Mining Act, a costly process (the application processing fee alone is $500,000) that would take years.

Meanwhile, the local community is divided. After all, in Maine it’s not difficult to find people still living with the long-term damage of older mines. On the other hand, many Mainers are pragmatic and understand the state has long, dark winters, and will need battery storage for any renewable energy it generates on sunny or windy days. The alternative is to continue relying on fossil fuels, which would exacerbate climate change.

Myles Felch, curator at the Maine Mineral and Gem Museum, is one of these practical Mainers. He was raised in Union, where a groundswell of opposition has formed to resist a proposal by Canada-based Exiro Minerals to look for nickel near a beloved local pond. Felch isn’t thrilled with the prospect, but also knows we can’t continue to be so detached from the minerals we use in our daily life.

“I love the place where I grew up and I wouldn’t want anything to ever happen to it,” says Felch. But “you need mineral resources. Most people were probably texting ‘stop the mine’ with a nickel cobalt battery in their phones.”

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Wind power stations of German utility RWE, one of Europe's biggest electricity companies are pictured in front of RWE's brown coal fired power plants of Neurath near Jackerath, north-west of Cologne, Germany, March 18, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo

Germany adds 60% more onshore wind power in H1 but pace seen too slow

The drop in Russian fossil fuel exports to Germany last year highlighted the hazards of relying on imports and emphasized the urgency of implementing a local energy plan.

Reuters by Vera Eckert, July 18, 2023

FRANKFURT, July 18 (Reuters) - Germany added 60% more onshore wind capacity in the first half of 2023 than a year earlier at a total of 1,565 megawatts (MW), but needs far more to reach its 2030 target, wind industry lobbies said on Tuesday.

Wind power is central to Germany's transition to renewable energy as Berlin aims to generate at least 80% of electricity output by 2030 from green sources such as solar and wind, to lower carbon emissions.

The roll-out has become more pressing with the drop of Russian fossil fuel exports to Germany last year, demonstrating the risks of reliance on imports and the need for local energy.

Associations BWE and the VDMA Power Systems engineering group, which represent turbine makers including Nordex (NDXG.DE), Vestas Deutschland (VWS.CO) and GE Deutschland (GE.N), issued statistics showing that the 1,565 MW total compared with 977 MW added in the first half of 2022.

The organisations credited the government's interventions in favour of building activity and the speeding of permits for the increase.

Assuming these developments will continue, they expect that at least the upper end of a full-year projection made in January for additions totalling 2,700-3,200 MW will be reached this year, said Baerbel Heidebroek, BWE's president, at a virtual news conference.

However, even the significantly increased permit numbers are not enough to achieve growth rates of 10,000 MW per year from 2025, which would be necessary to achieve the government's green energy targets for 115,000 MW of onshore wind in 2030, she said.

"We must streamline and tighten the approval procedures and set strict deadlines," she added.

Dennis Rendschmidt, VDMA Power Systems' managing director, said approvals for heavy road transports of parts are taking an average of 12 weeks in Germany compared with four to five days in the Netherlands.

Ministries outside the economy ministry run by the Greens' Robert Habeck and state and local authorities should cooperate better, the two organisations said.

Germany's total installed onshore wind capacity had reached 59,343 MW at the end of June 2023, the data from the two organisations showed.

This represented a net increase of 4.4% from a year earlier, after accounting for dismantling and revamps of existing turbines.

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Image: An artist’s rendering shows Westinghouse’s planned AP300 small modular nuclear power reactor, which the company officially unveiled on May 4, 2023, and hopes will be built in the United States and around the world. Westinghouse/Handout via REUTERS

Britain opens small nuclear reactor competition, launches new nuclear body

Ambitious Plan: Boosting Nuclear Power to Meet Climate Targets

Reuters by Susanna Twidale, July 18, 2023

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Britain on Tuesday opened a competition to develop small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), such as those being developed by Rolls-Royce (RR.L), as it launched its new Great British Nuclear body designed to help drive the expansion of projects in the country.

Britain is aiming to increase its nuclear power capacity to 24 gigawatts (GW) by 2050 as part of efforts to meet climate targets and boost energy security. That would meet around a quarter of projected electricity demand, up sharply from about 14% today.

Large new nuclear projects, with high upfront costs, have struggled to attract financing and the government hopes some older plants could be replaced by a fleet of SMRs which can be made in factories, with lower costs and faster construction.

Companies can, from Tuesday, register their interest in the government’s SMR competition. The Great British Nuclear body, also launched on Tuesday, will select technologies that have met the criteria in the Autumn.

The competition "could result in billions of pounds of public and private sector investment," Secretary of State for Energy Security, Grant Shapps said.

Companies selected will then start discussions as part of an Invitation to Negotiate phase, the government said.

The SMR competition was first announced alongside the budget in March this year.

In 2021 the government committed 210 million pounds to Rolls-Royce for its 500-million pound SMR programme which could see the company open factories to build the reactors in Britain.

Britain previously announced a competition for SMRs in the 2015 Autumn Statement which ultimately closed in 2017 without moving beyond the initial, information-gathering first stage.

Along with SMRs the government said it is committed to large-scale new projects, such as EDF’s (EDF.PA) Hinkley Point C, the first new plant in more than 20 years, and EDF’s Sizewell C in which the government has invested around 700 million pounds, becoming a 50% shareholder in the development phase.

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An illustration of Widerøe's electric aircraft Foto: Rolls-Royce

Pioneers in Green Aviation: Could Norwegian Electric Planes Be a Model for the Rest of the World?

The global aviation industry has a massive climate problem, and many are looking to Norway for a possible solution. The country wants all short-haul flights to be conducted with electric planes as early as 2040. But doubts persist about whether the technology will be ready.

Spiegel by Marcus Efler, 18.07.2023

The days when airliners took off from Säve airfield near the Swedish city of Gothenburg are long gone. What's left now is an access road with a rusty gate, wooden barracks in an advanced state of decay and a container village that is used as a hostel. Anyone wishing to visit Heart Aerospace has to seek out the only new building on the forested site.

That's where the startup is tinkering with the future of passenger aviation, which is currently plagued by concerns about the climate, at least for short-haul flights. English is spoken on the company's premises, and 200 employees from more than 30 nations work in plain, open-plan offices in the main building and adjacent containers, as well as in two large hangars.

In one, components are made by hand; in the other, a metallic skeleton in the shape of an airplane reaches up to the ceiling. Soon, what currently looks almost like a dinosaur skeleton will hopefully become an aircraft of the future: the Heart ES-30, a high-wing aircraft with 30 seats, four electric motors on the wings and a five-ton battery in the fuselage.

If, as planned, three prototypes of the Heart ES-30 actually take off for their first test flight in 2026 and serially-manufactured planes are then delivered to airlines, the Swedish aircraft would be the first electric aircraft to meet international Part 25 certification standards. It is the highest standard class -- applying, for instance, to the Airbus A380 superjumbo.

The impetus for the electric aircraft came from neighboring Norway. "From 2040, short-haul flights in Norway will have to be 100 percent electric," says Markus Kochs-Kämper, Heart's chief engineer, who hails from Germany. "We think battery-powered electric motors are the best solution."

Following the country's radical switch to electric cars, Norway is also set to become a pioneer in zero-emissions aviation with its strict requirements. The regulation is to apply to all flights lasting up to one and a half hours, including cross-border services. Scandinavia is becoming a pioneering region for green aviation, moving ahead at a speed much faster than the rest of the European Union. The new rules, which were quickly implemented, could also have an effect on airlines like Germany's Lufthansa.

A Laboratory for Electric Aviation

But how realistic is such a rushed transition? The certification of new aircraft by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and its U.S. counterpart, the FAA, alone, can take years.

What is clear is that something has to change. Airplanes are responsible for around 2 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. And Norway is particularly well suited as a real-world laboratory for an experiment like electric aviation. Because of its exceptionally beautiful but difficult-to-access landscape, airplanes are often the only way for people to stay connected there besides smartphones and the internet. "It takes hours to drive a car around a fjord," says Kochs-Kämper, "a plane only takes a few minutes."

Fewer than 5.5 million inhabitants live in an area roughly the size of Germany, and its population density is far lower.

"It takes hours to drive a car around a fjord. A plane only take a few minutes." Markus Kochs-Kämper, chief engineer

Remote regions are barely served by roads and even less by rail. The widespread expansion of roads and railways are impeded by nearly 40,000 lakes larger than four hectares and up to 300 mountains whose peaks rise at least 2,000 meters above sea level.

It's no wonder, then, that Norway maintains a disproportionately large number of airports, with at least 50 served by regular flights. "Given the population distribution, short-haul flights undoubtedly make sense," says Markus Fischer, a divisional group leader for aeronautics at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), who is following developments in Norway with interest.

Cautious Optimism

Another argument in favor of the electrification of the Scandinavian skies is that almost all the electricity in Norway – close to 90 percent – is generated in a climate-neutral way using hydropower. Natural gas and other fossil fuels are hardly to be found in the Norwegian electricity mix.

As such, conditions are perfect for electrically powered seaplanes like the ones currently being developed by the Norwegian startup Elfly. They are building a high-wing aircraft with nine seats and two propellers engines powered by batteries, in partnership with the Norwegian Research Council. Called the Noemi ("no emissions"), the high-wing plane is expected to land in fjords on the west coast to drop off passengers and cargo starting in 2030.

The country's largest regional airline, Widerøe, is also seeking to push forward green aviation. Three-quarters of Widerøe flights are over distances shorter than 300 kilometers, with many of them less than half that distance. However, classic propeller-driven aircraft burn a disproportionate amount of fuel, especially during takeoff. Switching to electric aircraft would be worthwhile not only for the climate, but also economically.

There is also "massive political pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in aviation, as well," says Widerøe CEO Andreas Kollbye Aks. He is optimistic that he will be able to achieve the required electrification, but he is also quick to qualify that claim. "We're starting with flights on the west coast in the south, avoiding weather fronts or even landing in strong winds – energy-consuming tasks that electric aviation isn't yet ready to handle." Does that mean that the idea of electric aviation is still a utopian one?

Enthusiasm about the opportunities offered by the new technology has always been accompanied by persistent doubts about whether it can become reality. There have been reasons for skepticism. The aircraft manufacturer Tecnam, for example, has already halted construction of its own electric plane due to doubts about its suitability for everyday use. The Italian company had originally planned to introduce an 11-seat aircraft to the market and deliver it to Widerøe, but development of the P-Volt model has been put on hold.

How Long Do the Batteries Really Last?

The company mainly sees problems with its forecasted efficiency and sustainability. The company, based in Capua near Naples, recently announced that its assumptions had been based on "extremely aggressive" scenarios for technological development. In other words: Their hope rests on a leap in battery technology -- though no one knows when or if it will even come.

The aging of the power storage units after only a few weeks of operation and the associated decrease in range also frightened the developers. According to Tecnam's calculations, even with extremely gentle handling, the capacity falls below a critical value after just a few hundred hours of operation. Airlines would then be forced to buy new batteries – and the operating costs for the planes would be horrendous. Tecnam thus came to a clear assessment in its statement: The all-electric passenger aircraft is the "Green Transition flagship" rather than a real player in the decarbonization of aviation, it says.

So, is electric flight just a fanciful dream that might be good for a little airline greenwashing? Jet engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce isn't on board. "We are very proud to be able to contribute to sustainable aviation," says Matheu Parr, who is responsible for the British company's nascent business for customers of electric aircraft.

In the past, the company specialized in gigantic jet engines that hang under the wings of the Airbus A380, for instance, and burn tons of jet fuel. Now they are also working on cleaner planes: Its electric engine, a duo of four-blade propellers driven by electric motors each rated at 350 kilowatts, was supposed to be used on Tecnam's P-Volt.

Rolls-Royce is disappointed by the end of the project, because the manufacturer had hoped to gain important insights for the development of further e-engines. But the company is still sticking to its plan. "The market is demanding sustainable solutions, which is why we will continue to push electric and hybrid engines," the company says.

Parr sees electric propulsion as the optimal solution for aircraft with nine to 19 seats that have to cover distances "of 40 to 50 nautical miles," around 90 kilometers, which is practically nothing in aviation. For longer distances, developers of the technology have so far been faced with a dilemma that is almost impossible to resolve. The more non-stop flight time an aircraft is expected to achieve, the larger and heavier the battery becomes, which in turn consumes energy. Electric cars have the same problem, but it is much greater for aircraft, which are particularly sensitive to weight. And it is reinforced by the fact that, for safety reasons, the power storage units have to supply energy for twice as long as would actually be needed for the route in question, so that the aircraft could still reach another airport or can circle in the air in case of emergency.

Finding the Right Partners

Batteries with a large capacity also have correspondingly long charging times. What is a significant annoyance for drivers of electric cars on long trips could pose a challenge for airlines' business model. An aircraft that has to be charged for hours at the destination airport before it can take off again is no good for fast-turnaround short-haul traffic. Even the Megawatt Charging System (MDC), which pumps batteries full of up to 3.75 megawatts of charging power, can't eliminate the problem – even though that's more than 10 times what fast chargers for electric cars currently offer as a maximum.

Widerøe wants to ensure that its aircraft can take off again 15 minutes after landing. That's why the airline and Rolls-Royce are relying on battery swaps. "It takes about five minutes to change batteries," promises Qinyin Zhang, the man responsible for Rolls-Royce's short-haul electric aircraft business, "whereas charging can take up to three hours."

Widerøe is continuing to pursue its electric aspirations and hasn't been deterred by the demise of P-Volt. "Our plans are not affected by this," says Aks, the Widerøe CEO. He adds that they will test with other partners whether new, sustainable aircraft can be operated economically. "Although the concept has not yet proven to be viable, that could change as the technology continues to mature," Aks says, referring to Tecnam.

Just an Interim Solution?

At the airfield in Säve, however, the people at Heart Aerospace are not convinced by the concept of swapping batteries. Kochs-Kämper, the chief engineer, says that specialists are needed to replace the batteries without making mistakes. He says it is also uncertain whether they will always be ready on time.

The Swedes are instead relying on a different solution: Two turbo motors are to be mounted at the rear of their aircraft that can run on sustainably produced fuel. When needed, they can kick in and increase the range to 400 kilometers. That would also solve the safety problems. Drivers are familiar with the principle through the range extenders that manufacturers included in early electric cars like the first-generation BMW i3. Heart calls it a "reserve hybrid system."

This crutch has since disappeared in modern battery-powered vehicles, and the era of plug-in hybrids is drawing to a close. In the air, too, the electricity-fuel mix is only considered to be a temporary solution.

"As battery technology develops, there will no longer be a need for such interim solutions," says DLR expert Fischer. He points to new storage technologies such as condensed matter batteries, which at 500 watt-hours per kilogram of net weight are said to have about twice the energy density of lithium-ion batteries.

Heart Aerospace has designed its electric plane in a way that will allow airlines to incorporate more efficient energy storage once it becomes available. That would also be a battery swap of sorts, but it would only happen rarely and during major maintenance.

"We Want To Keep the Aircraft as Conventional as Possible"

The first airlines have already placed orders for the Heart airplane. So far, North American companies have been the main buyers of the aircraft, which is actually tailor-made for Norway. Mesa, a regional carrier based in Phoenix, as well as United Airlines and Air Canada have already ordered a total of 25 ES.30s, with options on a further 100. Heart says it is in talks with Northern European airlines, including SAS and Icelandair.

Meanwhile, as hobby pilots' single-engine Cessnas rattle above Säve's run-down airfield, the Heart ES-30 is taking off in a simulator inside the "Integrated Test Facility" as the corresponding Heart hanger is called.

When the simulator's four thrust levels are pushed forward, an electric buzz sounds from behind – future passengers and residents near the airport will probably not hear much more than that and the whirl of the propeller.

The plane reaches 90 knots, or just under 170 kilometers per hour, after a relatively short distance. With a light tug of the control stick, the high-wing aircraft takes off.

Sitting in the left-hand seat, Peter, the Heart test pilot, retracts the flaps and landing gear. At an altitude of 2,500 feet, he moves the joystick to the right: The ES-30 tilts into the curve. Then it turns to the left as it prepares to land again. There is little distinguishing the handling of the ES-30 from that of regional aircraft with turboprops. At least in the flight simulator.

The design of the passenger cabin, which is shown as a one-to-one model, also doesn't look any different. "Apart from the propulsion system, we want to keep the aircraft as conventional as possible," explains Kochs-Kämper. For example, the fuselage isn't made of carbon, but of the usual light metals. The interior is kept classic and functional. Too much innovation at once would overload the development just as it would later overwhelm the passengers.

Opportunities for Small Airports

The biggest difference for planners and pilots is the relatively short takeoff distance of 750 meters for an aircraft of this size. People are also familiar with this effect from electric cars. Through their disproportionately higher torque, e-motors generate enormous thrust.

Airlines like Widerøe would thus be able to fly even to the smallest airfields in the future, ones whose runways are currently too short for conventional aircraft. The higher purchase price of the planes would be offset by low operating and maintenance costs. According to Rolls-Royce expert Parr, electric aircraft have an operating cost of just 65 cents per passenger per nautical mile, compared to at least 85 cents for a comparable propeller plane. "The operational cost of a 50-seat electric aircraft will be the same as a 30-seat conventional aircraft," predicts Simon Newitt, Heart's customer service manager.

Given this, the promise of clean mobility by air is is accompanied by hope for a new, small boom in flying, thanks to lower ticket prices. In Germany, too, where short-haul flights are currently viewed critically, enthusiasm for the new technology in the industry is also growing. "With low-emission engines, short-haul services that have been discontinued in Germany could also be resumed," says DLR expert Fischer. "And smaller airports could also be added to the route network."

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News round-up, July 17, 2023

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Quote of the days…

Kremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed

Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.

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Most read…

El Salvador in the grip of the 'Bukele system'

Bukele has aligned himself with a group of Latin American leaders, including Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez in Honduras, who are willing to ignore constitutional limits to extend their time in power.

 Le Monde by Angeline Montoya, published yesterday at 5:00 pm (Paris)

Big Heat and Big Oil

A rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating that has caused extreme damage in recent weeks; and that rapid end is possible.

The New Yorker By Bill McKibben, July 16, 2023

Vietnam's big bet on LNG may not ease its power crisis

Vietnam's urgent need to improve its electricity supply, which has been exposed by recent power outages, has raised concerns among foreign investors about Vietnam's reliability as a viable option for diversifying manufacturing operations away from China.

Reuters By Francesco Guarascio, Emily Chow and Khanh Vu, July 17, 2023

EU considers gas imports from Argentina, document shows

The draft Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) emphasizes the common objectives of both parties in reducing global warming.

Reuters by Kate Abnett, July 17, 2023

Kremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed

Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.

Reuters, July 17, 2023

Russia-Ukraine War: “Explosions on Crimean Bridge Disrupt Key Link to Russia

A deadly attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge was the latest blow to a Russian military already dealing with internal strife.

NOW/The New York Time

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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SOPA IMAGES/ Editing by Germán & Co

El Salvador in the grip of the 'Bukele system'

Bukele has aligned himself with a group of Latin American leaders, including Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez in Honduras, who are willing to ignore constitutional limits to extend their time in power.

 Le Monde by Angeline Montoya, published yesterday at 5:00 pm (Paris)

InvestigationNayib Bukele, the president of the Central American country, enjoys great popularity thanks to his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his fight against gangs. But his opponents criticize increasingly frequent breaches of democratic principles.

Nayib Bukele has won a war. The Salvadoran president often boasts on Twitter: "We're not the same anymore." Four years of "Bukeleism" have changed the face of El Salvador. Its 6.6 million nationals adore him, someot idolize him. He succeeded where all the others failed in defeating the pandillas, the gangs that have bloodied the country – and the Central American region – for more than two decades. Almost every day, Bukele tweets to his 5.2 million followers: "Another day with zero homicides," an assertion that has an undeniable impact when seven years earlier, there were almost 20 murders a day in the country.

The changes were noticeable when strolling through the streets of San Salvador, the capital. That day, children were playing football in a square. A couple was about to enjoy a drink on a terrace. A woman visited a friend. These scenes of everyday life were unthinkable just two years ago when gangs were sowing terror, extorting money from businesses, controlling entrances and exits to neighborhoods, threatening residents, and even banning the brands of sneakers worn by rival gangs.

The turning point came on March 27, 2022. After a particularly deadly weekend – authorities reported 87 murders – that undermined his stated policy of reducing crime, the president declared a war on gangs, greeted by the applause of an exasperated population. He also declared a state of emergency, which is still in force today. He deployed the army in the streets, surrounded entire towns to root out gang members, the pandilleros, and threw 70,000 people into prison. As a result, 1.6% of the population is now behind bars, the highest incarceration rate in the world. One year and three months later, the facts are striking. The investigative website El Faro verified this by visiting 14 towns previously under criminal groups' thumb. "The gangs do not exist at this moment as El Salvador knew them for decades," it writes.

Bukele, 41, is delighted. In the past, El Faro vilified his strategy against the pandilleros and the international community urged him to respect the rights of the detainees. "Let all the 'human rights' non-governmental organizations know we will wipe out these bloody murderers and their collaborators. We will put them in prison, and they will never get out," he tweeted again on May 17, after the murder of a police officer. Under his tweet were hundreds of replies from ministers, lawmakers, civil servants, journalists close to the government, and influencers, all determined to applaud, even praise, the most beloved president of the American continent. A CID Gallup study recently reported he enjoys a 92% popularity rating.

In the space of four years, the Salvadoran leader has become the model for a portion of the Latin American right. His recipes for tackling crime receive commendations. "El Salvador is a benchmark," said Zury Rios, the daughter of Guatemalan dictator Efrain Rios Montt, who was in power from 1982 to 1983. "He pulled off a real miracle in El Salvador," according to the far-right mayor of Lima, Rafael Lopez Aliaga, believed to be about to launch a "Bukele plan" to combat crime in Peru.

'Almost-religious relationship'

The war has been won, but at what price and for how long? According to numerous reports by local and international human rights organizations, thousands of innocent people have been arrested. Torture and inhuman treatment are "widespread" and "systematic" in prisons. Scores of detainees – at least 153, according to the NGO Cristosal, perhaps twice as many – have died from beatings, starvation, or lack of medical care. Public freedoms and civil society, particularly journalists, are under threat.

Although El Salvador is drifting toward authoritarianism, its residents seem willing to accept anything from the man who has also put an end to the 30-year hegemony of the two parties accused of plundering the country's wealth and increasing corruption to stratospheric levels: the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA, formed from the nationalist right) and the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (a Marxist guerrilla group that became a party after the 1992 peace accords that put an end to 12 years of civil war, FLMN).

"Two phenomena have converged to fuel Bukele's popularity," said analyst Oscar Picardo, director of the Institute of Science, Technology and Innovation at Francisco-Gavidia University in San Salvador. "On the one hand, there was the public's frustration with the corruption of these two parties. On the other, the disruptive figure of a young man, with an enchanting speech, and visually different, with his cap and jeans."

Government propaganda is helping reinforce that image: "Around a hundred videos promoting Bukele's image and policies are posted on social media every day, hammering positive messages and creating a cult of his personality," Picardo said. "An almost-religious relationship has developed between him and the population." A horde of young YouTubers and Twitter users glorify the self-proclaimed "coolest president in the world."

El Filtro, an alliance of four online media outlets, analyzed thousands of videos. On May 17 alone, YouTubers published 31 hours and 45 minutes of pro-Bukele content. "The majority of the population is hypnotized by the government's huge advertising machine," according to Jorge Guzman, a former examining magistrate. "Bukele does not even need to repress rare demonstrations of discontent. Authoritarian governments that repress have become unpopular, as in Nicaragua. This is not the case here."

Bukele knows a thing or two about propaganda. After failing law school, he took over the family advertising business set up by his father, Armando Bukele Kattan, a descendant of Christians from Bethlehem, Palestine. Discriminated against when they arrived in El Salvador at the beginning of the 20th century, Palestinian migrants became prosperous businessmen in the space of a century, imposing themselves on the wealthy local coffee producers to the extent that this minority of barely 1% of the population now accounts for up to 50% of the national economy.

This evolution cannot be explained without the Handals, the Zablahs, the Simans, and the Pomas families. "But the Bukeles were not part of the new elite," said a diplomat based in San Salvador. "Especially since Nayib's father had converted to Islam, founding El Salvador's first mosque, while almost all the Palestinians were Christians. They were doubly discriminated against: Because they were Palestinians, and because they were Muslims."

Demigod

Bukele, born on July 24, 1981, quickly tried to overcome the frustration of not belonging to the dominant class. As a teenager, he soon became a leader. "He was an average student, but he was the boss of a small group of classmates, many of whom joined his cabinet, and he was already sarcastic," said Picardo who was also his middle school social sciences teacher. He uses the same sarcasm to respond to today's critics. "If you like pandilleros so much, come and get them, and take them to your countries," he tells an international community poised to denounce the abuses of his "war on gangs."

In a country considered, like the rest of Central America, as the United States' backyard, his rhetoric against "Yanqui" imperialism and Western diktats on how to govern his country hits the mark. The inclusion in a list of corrupt Central Americans of many high-ranking Salvadoran officials and MPs reinforces the feeling that Washington, as always, wants to assert its rule.

Bukele presents himself as the guarantor of independence against the North American giant, accused of solely defending its interests. "The Americans spent the early days of his mandate publicly humiliating him, notably on Twitter," said a Western diplomatic source. "He managed to turn this into political capital and gain an aura throughout the region, which has good, historical reasons, to be 'anti-Yanqui.'"

Already acclaimed for his leadership as mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlan (2012-2015), a small town on the outskirts of the capital, and then as mayor of San Salvador (2015-2018), in both cases under the FMLN banner, Bukele honed his image as an incorruptible outsider by multiplying attacks on his party, accusing it of having sold out to neoliberalism. So much so that the FMLN decided to expel him in 2017. But the real springboard to his popularity was the Covid-19 pandemic.

The distribution of $300 in subsidies and food baskets made the new head of state, elected in 2019, a demigod in the eyes of the poor and disenfranchised. "No president has ever given me anything," said Rosalinda, a street vendor who has hung a portrait of the revered president delivered with the food baskets in her living room.

With Bukele, there was no conspiracy talk when it came to vaccines. He went out of his way to immunize his population, even affording himself the luxury of sending tens of thousands of doses to neighboring Honduras. In response to the economic crisis, he raised the minimum wage by 20% in August 2021 on the back of a one-year subsidy for small and medium-sized businesses and even subsidized petrol. The measures were hailed by an exsanguinated population ready to flee to the US.

Being the first country to introduce Bitcoin as its national currency also put El Salvador in the international spotlight, giving a sense of pride to a people too often associated with violence. "We signed our independence, but we were never really sovereign," Bukele said on the bicentenary of independence on September 15, 2022. "Now, El Salvador makes its own decisions."

So when he declared in the following sentence before an audience of ministers, senior civil servants, MPs, and ambassadors, that he would again run for the presidency on February 4, 2024, the audience – except for the diplomatic corps – rose to their feet roaring: "Re-election! Re-election!" But three constitutional articles prohibit immediate re-election. Article 88 of El Salvador's Constitution even obliges the population to insurrection in the event of failure to comply with the "indispensable" principle of transfer of power. As for those who "promote or support re-election," Article 74 strips them of citizenship rights. But Bukele does not bother with such details.

Authoritarian

The dismissal of the judges of the constitutional court on May 1, 2021, enabled their replacements to reinterpret the constitution more meekly: In September 2021, they decided that all the president needed to do to stand for re-election was to resign six months before the end of his term. Felix Ulloa, the country's vice president, told Le Monde last year: "The current constitution prohibits immediate re-election." On Sunday, June 25, he and Bukele officially registered as pre-candidates. "Nayib Bukele will resign before December 1, 2023," six months before the end of his current term of office, that is, Ulloa said on television.

Following Daniel Ortega's footsteps in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez ("JOH") in Honduras, Bukele joined the Latin American heads of state club determined to flout constitutional obstacles to stay in power. "He doesn't want to end up like 'JOH,' extradited to the US for drug trafficking at the end of his mandate," said a Salvadoran source close to the business community. "There's no way he will risk going to prison for taking state money."

Bukele presents himself as a herald of anti-corruption, but severe embezzlement suspicions hang over his government. To date, however, no investigation has been launched. In June 2021, the new prosecutor appointed by the government dismantled the International Commission for the Fight against Impunity in El Salvador (CICIES). Set up by Bukele himself in 2019, it had exposed at least 12 cases involving government members.

On June 1, during his address to the nation to mark his four years in office, Bukele said that, after his war against gangs, he would wage another, this time against corruption. He even promised a special prison for the corrupt, like a "terrorism detention center" designed to house 40,000 pandilleros inaugurated in January. El Salvador's former president Alfredo Cristiani, in office from 1989 to 1994, accused of being "one of the politicians who have done the most harm" to the country, was identified as his first target. "The president is very aggressive against the corruption of the past, but he protects the corruption of the present," said Johnny Wright, a former MP with the ARENA now affiliated with a center-left party. "He aims to wipe out any opposition linked to the ARENA or the FMLN." back to the early days of his mandate. The most serious warning came on February 9, 2020. That day, Bukele stormed the country's Legislative Assembly with military troops to force MPs to vote on funding a program combatting insecurity. He eventually backtracked after receiving a message from God, which asked him to be "patient." According to the international community and part of civil society, the development was dangerous. In the eyes of the population, which loves a strong man, it was a sign that the leader was ready to do anything to defend it against the establishment and the ARENA and FMLN MPs, who still have a majority and are fond of parliamentary obstruction.

'Judicial coup'

A year later, Bukele had his revenge. Nuevas Ideas (New Ideas, NI), the party he founded after being expelled from the FMLN, won two-thirds of the seats in the February 2021 legislative elections. The assembly, from that point dominated by his supporters, immediately dismissed the country's attorney general, in addition to magistrates of the constitutional tribunal. Appointed by the ARENA and the FMLN, they had blocked some of Bukele's initiatives during the first wave of Covid-19.

"Salvadorans returning from a trip, or others who failed to comply with quarantine requirements, were locked up for almost two months in detention centers without being given the results of their tests, or were contaminated on the spot," said Antonio Duran, a judge with the Zacatecoluca city court. "Some died for lack of treatment. The court then ordered their release, which led Bukele to say that the magistrates wanted the Salvadorans dead."

As for the attorney general, Raul Melara, he was investigating, with CICIES, corruption cases affecting the president's allies. "May 1, 2021, was one of the saddest days of my life," said Wright, who also took office that day. "We knew it would be a disruptive assembly, but nobody expected that. Looking back, we realize that judiciary control was an essential step for everything to follow."

A few days later, the new prosecutor, Rodolfo Delgado, terminated the CICIES' mandate. Bukele was able to govern without any checks and balances.

But he did not stop there. At the end of August 2021, he ordered the retirement of judges over 60 or with more than 30 years of service. They had the option of staying on for another five years, but on condition that they made themselves available to the Supreme Court. "This was a way of making them give up their independence since the government now controls the Court," said Guzman. Around a hundred magistrates took the deal on offer. Guzman resigned.

The best-trained and most experienced magistrates were either dismissed or moved to less central jurisdictions and replaced by colleagues easier to influence. This was the case of Duran, transferred from San Salvador to Zacatecoluca after criticizing a "judicial coup." "The idea was to isolate us from each other," he said.

There was no possibility of appeal. "The government co-opts all bodies: The police, the public prosecutor's office, the courts, the Supreme Court," said a judge who has also moved away from the capital and spoke on condition of anonymity. The same goes for the National Judicial Council, the Audit Office, and the Supreme Electoral Court. "We are no longer in the law but in the arbitrary," the judge said. Hector Gustavo Villatoro, the Salvadoran minister of justice, did not respond to interview requests by Le Monde.

Resentment

None of this has dented Bukele's popularity. "He was able to read the Salvadoran population," said anthropologist and journalist Juan Martinez d'Aubuisson, a gang specialist. "The population believes in authoritarianism, thinks that violence is didactic and a way of solving problems."

"One thing is that it's popular; another is that it's a good thing," emphasized Claudia Ortiz, an MP with the right-wing Christian Democrat party Vamos, founded in 2017, of which she is the sole representative in the Assembly. According to Ortiz, the reasons for the government's stated successes are not necessarily those people think.

Independent media have shown, for example, that the drop in homicides, which began before Bukele came to power and continued thereafter, was not so much due to government policy as to an agreement forged with the gangs. The murder of 87 people on the deadly weekend in March 2022, was the result of a breach of this agreement. Recordings revealed close contact between a high-ranking civil servant and criminal group leaders. Hundreds of disappearances were also reportedly not taken into account.

All previous governments have stumbled over the pandilla problem. Various methods have been tried – repression, secret or open negotiations with the gangs – to no avail. Bukele, on the other hand, has succeeded in establishing that he is the only one to have faced the problem and taken radical measures.

But among human rights activists and security experts, fears of yet another cycle of violence are high: "The [crackdown] campaign could generate resentment and perhaps backlash from gang members," warned the International Crisis Group in a report. According to researcher and security expert Jeannette Aguilar, the arbitrary arrests of innocent people are part of "an intimidation approach designed to instill fear in the population. The message is also aimed at opposition sectors and critical voices."

Members of NGOs, judges, and independent journalists are perceived as enemies. Journalists from El Faro, Revista Factum, Gato Encerrado, and La Prensa Grafica are in the crosshairs. Some 35 of them were spied on with Israel's Pegasus surveillance software, which the government denies having used.

A law passed in April 2022 punishes with 15 years' imprisonment anyone who transmits messages from the pandillas "likely to generate anxiety and panic among the population." When interviewed by Le Monde in August 2022, Ulloa admitted that the law was primarily aimed at journalists. El Faro was forced to move its administrative headquarters to Costa Rica to escape the pressure.

Public information, on the other hand, is systematically classified as a "state secret." Whether it concerns statistics on homicides, femicides, disappearances, Bitcoin purchases, or health policy, everything is confidential. "The government launches projects that are used for publicity, but then there's no way of knowing whether they've been useful, what the results have been," Ortiz said. "We have to take the government's word for it." The country's evolution is such that Duran and Guzman no longer hesitate to speak of "dictatorial drift." "We've gone back to the worst days of the armed conflict," Duran said. In such a context, the opposition struggles to make itself heard, crushed by the weight of MPs affiliated with NI and their allies. Bills are introduced at night, without consultation, and voted on the next day. The lack of "minimum working conditions" is why Wright has decided not to stand for re-election in 2024.

'Achilles' heel'

One year before the end of his mandate, Bukele is pursuing his policy of concentrating power. In early June, with the official aim of limiting state spending and fighting corruption, he passed a law reducing the number of seats in the Assembly from 84 to 60 and the number of municipalities from 262 to 44.

The international community is struggling to strike a balance between the diatribes uttered, to no effect, by Washington and the circumspection of the Europeans, anxious not to cut off the channels of communication with the government. "International bodies such as the United Nations and the Organization of American States have demonstrated that they do not have sufficient tools to curb the advance of authoritarianism in the region, including Nicaragua and Guatemala," Wright said. "The international community simply doesn't know what to do."

For some experts, the Bukele system can only be overcome if the economic situation deteriorates. "For the moment, the situation is stable," Picardo said, "but the government is going to need oxygen, and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund [IMF] are still at a standstill because of Bitcoin," something the IMF does not want to hear about. Admittedly, "country risk" – a measure of the risk of a government defaulting on its debts – has eased somewhat this year following the repayment of an $800 million bond maturity in January. As for inflation (7.3% in 2022), it remains under control compared with neighboring countries. But foreign investors are skeptical. "The economy will become the government's Achilles' heel," according to Picardo. "Bukele has spent millions organizing the World Surfing Championships and the Miss Universe ceremony. This will last another two or three years."

Wilson Sandoval, a political scientist and member of El Salvador's Center for Anti-Corruption Legal Advice, is convinced that while the regime is, for the time being, "a sophisticated dictatorship that doesn't yet need bloodshed," it is following the same path as Nicaragua. "Daniel Ortega also had very high levels of popularity at the start of his first term, around 80%," he said. "But then the population got fed up and ended up taking its authoritarian leaders to the scaffold. It may take ten years, but that's what's going to happen."

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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Illustration by João Fazenda

Big Heat and Big Oil

The New Yorker By Bill McKibben, July 16, 2023

A rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating that has caused extreme damage in recent weeks; and that rapid end is possible.

In the list of ill-timed corporate announcements, historians may someday give pride of place to one made by Wael Sawan, the new C.E.O. of Shell, the largest energy company in Europe. In 2021, Shell said that it would reduce oil and gas production by one to two per cent a year up to 2030—a modest gesture in the direction of an energy transition. But Sawan, who assumed command of the company in January, signalled a different direction. The rise in oil and natural-gas prices, following the invasion of Ukraine, had doubled Shell’s annual profits, to a record forty billion dollars. That windfall had an effect. While Shell remains committed to fighting climate change, Sawan told the BBC, cutting fossil-fuel production would actually be “dangerous and irresponsible,” because doing so could cause the “cost of living” to start to “shoot up.” (The company has also said that it already met the target it set in 2021 through asset sales, which would include the sale of various drilling sites to ConocoPhillips—a step that seems unlikely to fool the atmosphere.)

The BBC aired the interview on July 6th—the day that many scientists believe was the hottest so far in human history. Since 1979, a global network of satellites, ocean buoys, and land stations has been recording average daily temperatures, measured two metres above the ground, around the world. We’re at the very start of what seems likely to be a major El Niño warming event; the previous global high temperature came at the height of the El Niño in 2016, when the average hit 16.92 degrees Celsius, or 62.45 degrees Fahrenheit. Estimates vary somewhat, but on July 3rd the average temperature reached 17.01 C, and three days later it hit 17.23 C, or 63.01 F. Scientists who calculate historic temperatures by examining proxy records, such as lake sediments or ice cores, believe that this may well be the hottest it’s been on Earth since at least the peak of an era known as the Eemian, a hundred and twenty-five thousand years ago, when rising temperatures pushed mastodons north from present-day Texas to the Yukon. This would mean that nothing even remotely resembling a human civilization has ever known a world this hot.

To use Sawan’s first adjective, that heat is clearly dangerous. The fires and floods that have occurred in just these past weeks, all of them exacerbated by the heat, are too numerous to even begin to list here. If you’re not in a place currently experiencing or recovering from some weather emergency, consider yourself lucky, and use the respite to make preparations for the inevitable. (There was something symbolic about last week’s historic flooding in the Hudson Valley overwhelming West Point, the spiritual heart of what many might call the most powerful human force ever assembled.) The damage goes well beyond what you can capture in a cell-phone video: estimates indicate that at least forty per cent of the world’s oceans are currently undergoing what biologists have dubbed “marine heat waves,” doing systemic damage that we can only guess at; the temperature of the ocean, like that of the air, has never been higher in human history.

To use Sawan’s other adjective, standing by as this warming happened is the most irresponsible thing that humans have ever done. In June, 1988, the nasa scientist James Hansen told Congress to expect more or less what we saw last week. Fossil-fuel companies were already aware of the risks, but they decided to deny the science of climate change through three decades, when we could have been doing preventive work. There’s always been a reason for oil companies to stand in the way of action. At the moment, Sawan cites the risk of temporary inflation, and also the idea that, if we don’t expand oil and gas production, children in the Global South—he mentioned Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular—will have to study by “the light of candles.”

But solar lights that can shine all night charged with just four hours of sunlight can be had for a dollar, and Bangladesh is a world leader in small-scale solar. In recent years, homes in that country that do not get their power from the national grid have relied on rooftop solar panels to cope with power cuts. As for Pakistan, last fall it had the worst flooding in at least a decade—the kind of sustained deluge that happens only on a heating planet where the air holds increased amounts of water vapor. It left a third of the country underwater, and, more than six months later, unicef estimated that twenty million Pakistanis in the flood zones, including nine million children, were still in need of humanitarian aid.

The Earth’s temperature is going to go higher, no matter what we do: this month’s all-time records will almost certainly be broken in the coming year, as the new El Niño gathers strength. Many scientists predict that we will at least temporarily pass the 1.5-degree-Celsius increase that nations vowed, in the Paris Climate Agreement, to try to avoid. But how much higher is still an open question: a rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating; and that rapid end is possible, because solar and wind power and batteries to store it are now cheap and available. Texas got through an epic heat wave in the past few weeks largely because it has increased its solar and wind capacity, which kept air-conditioners running even as conventional power plants faltered.

But, in Texas, the Republican-led legislature spent much of the past year at work on laws that would discourage the use of renewables and prop up oil and gas. In Congress and on the campaign trail, the G.O.P. is expending far more energy in defending gas stoves than in doing anything about this growing crisis. So far, there’s no real political penalty for that kind of reckless behavior. Indeed, Sawan told the BBC that, while there are not currently any plans, Shell wouldn’t rule out moving its headquarters from the United Kingdom to the United States, where oil companies get higher market prices for their shares. (Britain has also implemented a windfall-profits tax on energy companies. ) This suggested to him that the U.S. is more supportive of oil and gas companies, and, as he has told investors, he wants to “reward our shareholders today and far into the future.”

That is pretty much the definition of “business as usual,” and it’s precisely what has generated this completely unprecedented heat. If the disasters we’re seeing this month aren’t enough to shake us out of that torpor, then the chances of our persevering for another hundred and twenty-five thousand years seem remote. 

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Model of LNG tanker is seen in this illustration taken May 19, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/Editing by Germán & Co

Vietnam's big bet on LNG may not ease its power crisis

Vietnam's urgent need to improve its electricity supply, which has been exposed by recent power outages, has raised concerns among foreign investors about Vietnam's reliability as a viable option for diversifying manufacturing operations away from China.

Reuters By Francesco Guarascio, Emily Chow and Khanh Vu, July 17, 2023

HANOI, July 17 (Reuters) - Vietnam received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas this month, a milestone for the energy-hungry country, but various hurdles mean it could take years for imported gas to ease the country's long-running power shortages.

Disagreement over pricing, plant construction delays and lack of supply contracts are dogging the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub's adoption of LNG, hampering its ambitions to make imported gas a major fuel, industry insiders say.

Vietnam's urgent need to boost electricity supply, laid bare by recent rolling blackouts, has raised concerns among foreign investors about whether Vietnam can remain a reliable option to diversify manufacturing away from China.

Half the businesses in a June poll by the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam said the power crisis had hurt investment plans. Some were considering alternatives or pausing spending on factories.

Failure to execute on its LNG plans would mark another blow to Hanoi's climate goals, which include imported and domestic gas as a transition fuel to reduce coal reliance.

With demand forecast to grow 6% annually for the rest of the decade, Vietnam in May unveiled a $135 billion electricity roadmap that, among other investments, would add 13 power plants fed by gas imported as LNG by 2030.

Integrating LNG into its fuel mix, Vietnam would join neighbours Thailand and Singapore as well as the Philippines, a recent-adopter.

Vietnam's industry ministry did not respond to a request for comment on implementing its LNG plan.

TROUBLED PLANTS

The first LNG shipment reached Vietnam last week. The test cargo of super-chilled gas was sent to state-owned PetroVietnam Gas's (PV Gas) (GAS.HM) new Thi Vai terminal near Ho Chi Minh City for conversion back to gas.

Vietnam targets LNG-sourced gas generating up to 22.4 gigawatts (GW) of power by 2030, enough to power 20 million households and account for nearly 15% of national power supply. But Kaushal Ramesh, an analyst at Oslo-based Rystad Energy, said a realistic expectation was just 5 GW.

Complicating LNG efforts, much of Vietnam's planned gas power investment is directed to the south of the country despite the under-served north's greater vulnerability to blackouts.

The first northern plant that would be fuelled by imported gas is not scheduled to begin operation until the second half of 2027, said its Japanese developer, Tokyo Gas (9531.T).

The first plant due to come online, the Nhon Trach 3 facility being built by state-run PetroVietnam Power (PV Power) (POW.HM) near Ho Chi Minh City, is scheduled to begin operation in late 2024. Industry sources say 2026 or 2027 is more realistic.

The local authority cited delays caused by lack of long-term contracts and problems over funding and permits.

A key hurdle is that PV Power is struggling to agree with grid operator EVN on the volume of purchases and prices for electricity generated from its plants running on imported gas, now some 50% more expensive than domestic gas, people familiar with the talks said.

PV Power wants to sell at least 80% to 90% of its imported gas-fuelled power to EVN at a set price for two decades, while EVN wants to commit to a lower portion, four sources said.

Plant developers are seeking state guarantees on their power contracts with EVN, warning that lenders would not fund their projects otherwise, an industry insider said.

Disagreements over power pricing contributed to a slow uptake of the wind industry, leaving a significant share of wind farms unplugged from the grid for years and stranding at least 4.6 GW of onshore wind capacity, according to an internal document from a Group of Seven nation, seen by Reuters.

Foreign developers of LNG-supplied plants, which include U.S.-based AES (AES.N) and Japan's Marubeni (8002.T), are closely watching the pricing talks, which could set a benchmark for their negotiations.

Takafumi Akino of Tokyo Gas, which is building an LNG terminal and a gas plant in northern Quang Ninh province, predicted "hard negotiations".

PV Power and EVN did not reply to requests for comment.

The biggest proposed plant earmarked for imported gas, a 3.2 GW project developed by Singapore-based Delta Offshore Energy, is undergoing debt restructuring after defaulting on a $10 million loan from Gulf International Holdings, court documents showed.

Delta Offshore did not respond to requests for comment. Gulf International's parent, Thailand-based Gulf Energy Development (GULF.BK), declined to comment.

LOCKING IN SUPPLY

Delays and uncertainty make it harder to secure long-term LNG supplies as Vietnam must compete with other importers. Buyers across China, South and Southeast Asia have inked a slew of multi-year deals this year.

PV Gas said this month it was in talks with U.S. energy giant ExxonMobil and Russia's Novatek on LNG cooperation.

Two trading sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter said PV Gas had been seeking LNG supplies at "unrealistically low prices".

PV Power and EVN did not reply to requests for comment.

Without long-term LNG supply, Vietnam would be exposed to volatile spot prices, which in Asia spiked to a record $70 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) last year before sinking to $12/mmBtu now.

"There may be suppliers willing to offload some volume to PV Gas, although this is a completely different risk and credit profile compared to what LNG producers are used to," Rystad's Ramesh said.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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A general view shows a special ship, "Neptune", the floating liquefied natural gas terminal, during the inauguration of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal 'Deutsche Ostsee' in the port of Lubmin, Germany January 14, 2023. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse/File Photo

EU considers gas imports from Argentina, document shows

The draft Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) emphasizes the common objectives of both parties in reducing global warming.

Reuters by Kate Abnett, July 17, 2023

BRUSSELS, July 17 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering possible gas imports from Argentina, which is a net gas importer but plans to expand domestic production, a draft document showed.

A draft memorandum of understanding, which the two sides plan to sign on Monday, said any gas trade should not impact Argentina's own consumption needs, and the two sides' targets to curb climate change.

"The participants endeavour to cooperate towards enabling a stable delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Argentina to the European Union," said the document, seen by Reuters, which could be changed before it is published.

The European Commission declined to comment on the draft.

Argentina has an energy deficit, meaning it needs to import fuel during the months when it consumes the most. It registered a $5 billion energy trade balance deficit in 2022.

But the country, which has the world's second largest unconventional gas reserves, is expanding production at Vaca Muerta, a shale formation in Patagonia.

European countries have for the last year been seeking new gas supplies, after former top supplier Russia cut flows following its invasion of Ukraine.

But the EU also expects its gas use to fall by the end of the decade as it seeks to meet climate change goals. It has said the majority of Russian gas supplies should be replaced with clean sources of energy, not fossil fuels.

Lisa Fischer, Programme Lead at climate think tank E3G, called on the EU to focus on supporting Argentina in developing renewable energy and other solutions that do not cause climate change.

"By the time the Argentinean gas comes online - and they don't even have the full export infrastructure to do so [to export gas to Europe] - I don't think the European Union will need that gas any longer," Fischer said.

The draft document said the two sides would work together in the areas of renewable energy and hydrogen fuel, and endeavour to cut methane emissions in their gas supply chains.

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Image by Germán & Co

Kremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed

Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.

Reuters, July 17, 2023

July 17 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Monday that it knew "very well" that NATO and the United States were providing intelligence to Ukraine but this was not a reason to cut off diplomatic ties with them following an attack on the bridge linking Russia and Crimea.

"In the most acute moments, we need channels for dialogue," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Peskov was asked about a comment by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova who, without providing evidence, accused Ukraine of carrying out the overnight attack on the bridge with the involvement of Britain and the United States.

"We know very well how deep the coordination is between the Kyiv regime, Washington, a number of European capitals and NATO," Peskov said.

"We know perfectly well how much information comes from NATO and Washington to Kyiv on a permanent basis. Therefore, we have no illusions here."

But a reporter's question about the possibility of cutting diplomatic relations with the West was "not quite correct" because of the need to keep dialogue channels open, he said.

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NYT/Editing by Germán & Co

Russia-Ukraine War: “Explosions on Crimean Bridge Disrupt Key Link to Russia

A deadly attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge was the latest blow to a Russian military already dealing with internal strife.

NOW/The New York Time

A predawn assault on a critical bridge linking the occupied Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia forced the temporary closure on Monday of a main artery used by its military to support its troops in southern Ukraine, in yet another blow to a Russian military command that was already dealing with internal strife.

Hours after the attack, Moscow announced that it was pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, an agreement that helped keep global food prices stable. But Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge and Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the deal were not connected.

Given the deep strategic and symbolic importance of the bridge, Monday’s assault was another embarrassment for Russia’s military leadership, which has been roiled by the fallout from last month’s failed mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group.

Russian officials said two people were killed in the attack and a third was injured. The extent of the damage remained unclear, but the assault again highlighted the vulnerability of this key piece of infrastructure far from the front lines.

Rail service over the bridge resumed Monday morning. But damage to the car lanes — which appeared to leave part of the road tilting, according to video verified by The New York Times — threatened to constrict Russian logistical operations. If the bridge were destroyed or severely damaged, Moscow would be left with a single major land route from Russia along the southern coast of Ukraine to support tens of thousands of soldiers fighting to hold onto territory captured in the first weeks of the invasion.

Pro-war Russian military bloggers and commentators were quick to use the attack on the bridge as evidence of what they said was another failure by the Russian military command. Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who runs a prominent blog about military affairs, said that Ukraine would strike again and again until the link is severed.

The attack came as Ukrainian forces were engaged in a grinding five-week-long counteroffensive aimed at driving Russian forces from areas of southern and eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are dug in behind fields laden with land mines, so the Ukrainian military has been forced to move cautiously and progress has been slow.

Isolating Russian forces in Crimea is an essential part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy, according to analysts. Ukrainian ground forces have been seeking to drive a wedge through the natural land bridge that connects Russia to the peninsula through southern Ukraine, and have repeatedly targeted the bridge that President Vladimir V. Putin ordered be built after Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.

Ukrainian officials offered no comment on the incident on Monday. But they have previously said that the 12-mile-long structure, a road and railway bridge that run in parallel, is a legitimate target because of its vital logistical role in the Kremlin’s war effort.

On Monday, Ukrainian officials celebrated the attack even as they maintained a studied policy of strategic ambiguity, declining to comment on any possible Ukrainian role.

“Any illegal structures used to deliver Russian instruments of mass murder are necessarily short-lived, regardless of the reasons for the destruction,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, said in a statement.

Monday’s assault came a little more than nine months after an Oct. 8 attack on the bridge by an explosives-laden truck forced the closure of one lane of traffic and damaged the railroad tracks.

Ukraine did not officially claim responsibility for that attack until May of this year, when the head of Ukraine’s security service, Vasyl Maliuk, acknowledged that the intelligence services took “certain measures” that allowed for the assault.

The National Anti-Terrorism Committee of the Russian Federation said in a statement that Ukraine attacked the bridge Monday using two maritime drones, a claim that could not be independently verified. Video and photographs verified by The Times showed damage to both sides of the road bridge, with the most significant being along a span of the bridge heading into Russia. One photo also showed a damaged car on the bridge.

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News round-up, July 13, 2023

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Editorial…

Vietnam holds a significant place in Marguerite Duras's soul...

Vietnam, particularly Saigon, has garnered considerable acclaim among readers for its depiction of love and sensuality in Marguerite Duras' renowned literary work, "The Lover."  As we get immersed in a captivating narrative that elicits deep-seated emotions, it is common to disregard the historical context against which the story unfolds. During her time in Saigon, Marguerite developed a deep affection for Huynh Thuy Le, the son of a prosperous Chinese businessman. Despite the significant age difference of twelve years, they met on a ferry that connected Saigon and the Mekong Delta. Over time, their relationship evolved into a romantic one.

The iconic photograph titled "Kim Phuc, The Girl in the Picture" also takes us back to the historical context of the Mekong Delta conflict, a pivotal event that precipitated the Vietnam War.

But Vietnam's history, characterized by a lot of love and hardships, has witnessed remarkable progress in both economic and social spheres in recent decades. Vietnam, initially one of the most impoverished nations in the mid-1980s, successfully attained lower middle-income status in 2010 as a result of a comprehensive economic transformation.

The transformation was initiated by the 1986 "Doi Moi" reforms, which involved the dismantling of the predominantly planned economy, the opening up of the country to international markets and trade, and the implementation of pro-business reforms. These reforms were implemented alongside a comprehensive social agenda, spearheaded by the expansion of education and electricity, with the aim of promoting inclusivity for all.

Vietnam has demonstrated noteworthy advancements in its pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), consistently ranking in the top quartile of SDG performance among emerging market economies for most indicators. Education has been a national priority since the implementation of Doi Moi, with an increasing focus on enhancing its quality. The literacy rate for children aged 15 and above was recorded at 95 percent in 2016, indicating a high level of educational attainment. Additionally, most children in the primary school age group are currently enrolled in educational institutions. Vietnam has successfully attained Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5, which focuses on maternal health, and the nation is making ongoing advancements in the field of healthcare. Infrastructure development has been a crucial factor in Vietnam's economic growth, as evidenced by the substantial contribution of government capital spending, which has averaged nearly 8 percent of GDP per year. Additionally, state-owned enterprises have consistently invested around 5 percent of GDP annually, further bolstering the country's development. These investments have significantly contributed to the expansion of infrastructure stocks, thereby facilitating Vietnam's ability to provide essential infrastructure access to its rapidly expanding industrial and manufacturing sector.

Indeed, it can be argued that Marguerite Duras would be delighted to witness the essence of her beloved Vietnam encapsulated within the persona of Huynh Thuy Le. It is truly inspiring to witness the transformation of this deep affection into a driving force for constructive transformation and progress, ultimately benefiting the collective welfare.

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Most read…

Biden’s economic dream is becoming reality — but how long can he sustain it?

Biden has navigated through two years of pitfalls and emerged with a rallying economy. The White House will take that for now.

Politico.com By ADAM CANCRYN, July 12, 2023

Sorry Russia, the Baltic Sea is now NATO’s lake

Expanding the alliance creates big problems for Russia.

POLITICO EU BY LAURA KAYALI, JULY 13, 2023 

Oil prices rise on cooling US inflation, China trade data

Reuters By Jeslyn Lerh, July 13, 2023

AES, PV Gas receive investment policy approval for LNG terminal project in central Vietnam

The venture will be managed by PV Gas and AES Corporation, and is slated to commence operations in 2027, boasting a capacity of 450 TBtu.

theinvestor.vn By Tri Duc, July 13, 2023 

Xi Jinping Chokes Off Crucial Engine of China’s Economy

Foreign direct investment in China fell to $20 billion in the first quarter from $100 billion a year earlier, hurting an already struggling economy

WSJ By Lingling Wei, July 13, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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A White House that has bet President Joe Biden’s political future on the economy’s resilience — so much so that they’re branding it with the president’s name — got the latest encouraging sign Wednesday that its strategy is paying off. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo/ Editing by Germán & Co

Biden’s economic dream is becoming reality — but how long can he sustain it?

Biden has navigated through two years of pitfalls and emerged with a rallying economy. The White House will take that for now.

Politico.com By ADAM CANCRYN, July 12, 2023

“Now he just needs to figure out how to keep it that way…

A White House that has bet Biden’s political future on the economy’s resilience — so much so that they’re branding it with the president’s name — got the latest encouraging sign Wednesday that its strategy is paying off, with new data showing a sharper than expected slowdown in consumer costs.

The measure is a major reversal of fortune for Biden, after two years battling soaring inflation and accusations his agenda had contributed to the pain. But it’s just the latest in a string of economic developments that’s bolstered the administration’s confidence it can set the U.S. on a glide path without first plunging it into a downturn.

“Despite repeated forecasts that recession is just around the corner, the U.S. recovery is solid,” National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York shortly after the inflation data came out Wednesday. “The economy is defying predictions that inflation would not fall absent significant job destruction.”

Yet even as fears of a disastrous recession fade, Biden and his allies are already turning their attention toward a range of smaller obstacles that threaten to dampen the White House’s political narrative. There remains a wariness within the ranks that taking a full victory lap on the economy could invite political troubles down the road — and that the administration lacks the tools to deal with a serious setback should one occur between now and the election in 16 months.

“Good news is good news for the White House at this point,” said Tobin Marcus, a former economic adviser to Biden. “It doesn’t rule out the possibility that things do go rougher than they hope.”

The administration is bracing for the mass resumption of student loan payments this fall, which could send a financial shock through millions of households that have benefited from the three-year reprieve. Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, are already signaling plans to wage a budget battle likely to shut down the government and further shake the nation’s political stability. And then there’s the Federal Reserve, which remains determined to hike interest rates in pursuit of lowering inflation to 2 percent, despite warnings it could end up tipping the U.S. into recession.

“Do we want to sacrifice the economy to the altar of the 2 percent inflation rate?” Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said earlier this week. On Wednesday, he tweeted that the latest inflation report served as more reason to “rethink” the Fed’s strategy.

Biden allies insist those are each manageable elements on their own. But the White House is already struggling to convince Americans that the economy is, in fact, good at a time when all the major indicators are moving in the right direction. And together, those looming hurdles represent a reminder that Biden and his team can only exercise so much control over the economy’s path in the run-up to 2024.

“There’s going to be cooling because economies just cool down — they can’t grow endlessly,” said one economic adviser to the White House, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “The only thing I worry about is the shock that I can’t predict.”

Biden himself has shown some restraint in how he frames the economic recovery, even amid an extended road tour to claim credit for strengthening conditions across the country. In an otherwise triumphant June speech meant to formally outline his Bidenomics agenda, Biden closed by cautioning, “I’m not here to declare victory.”

He repeated the disclaimer in South Carolina last week, warning that “we have a lot more work to do.”

Inside the administration, aides described their focus more on alleviating voters’ existing misgivings about the state of the economy rather than promising a rosy future. The White House has long harbored deep frustrations with media coverage that officials view as obsessed with the threat of recession, even as the underlying data showed consistent signs of strength — a dynamic they blame in part for the public’s dim view of how Biden has handled the economy.

“We have heard doomsayers saying a recession is around the corner for more than a year,” said one White House official, who was granted anonymity to describe the outlook inside the building. “Obviously, there will always be bumps on the road, but we have dealt with unexpected bumps and our economic recovery has powered through.”

The administration has sought to smooth out some of the impending bumps that it can predict. After the Supreme Court struck down Biden’s bid to cancel billions of dollars in student debt, the White House rolled out a new strategy that will ease repayment penalties for financially vulnerable borrowers over the next year.

The “on ramp” policy won’t avert the anticipated drop in borrowers’ spending that could ripple through the economy and slow its progress. But it could help spread some of the impact over several months, rather than having it hit all at once.

“The hardship for households in some cases is going to be very real,” Marcus said. “Macroeconomically, I don’t see that being the thing that tips us into recession.”

Biden has also begun taking aim at individual Republicans over economic issues. Having navigated a potentially disastrous debt ceiling showdown, he is now moving to insulate himself from the political fallout of a potential government shutdown. In particular, the White House has been highlighting GOP lawmakers who opposed his policies — even as they tout the ways in which their districts have benefited from them.

Biden: I compromised on the budget, not debt ceiling

But beyond that bully pulpit, Biden has few major levers remaining to stabilize the economy if it falters more significantly, especially as much of the pandemic aid that proved a critical financial cushion over the last few years expires.

Though the White House has steered clear of commenting on the Fed, aides and allies have kept close watch on a rate-hiking campaign many privately worry will go too far in its bid to lower inflation.

There’s also some trepidation over how much longer the economy can keep up its pace, and whether even small signs of cooling around this time next year could unravel all the work officials are doing now to sell voters on Biden’s economic record.

But for now, Biden has navigated through two years of pitfalls and emerged with a strengthening economy in hand. Voters may say they don’t yet feel it. Still, it’s a frame the White House is increasingly willing to embrace — for as long as it lasts.

“The story of almost every recession in modern American history is something bad happened, and it was something bad we didn’t see coming,” said Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan. “What could happen between now and 2024? A shit-ton of bad things. You know what else could happen? Good things.”

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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JAS 39 Gripen fighter aircraft of the Swedish Air Force is pictured during Arctic Challenge Exercise 23 live air operations drill in Pirkkala near Tampere, Finland on May 31, 2023 | Kalle Parkinen/AFP/Editing by Germán & Co

Sorry Russia, the Baltic Sea is now NATO’s lake

Expanding the alliance creates big problems for Russia.

POLITICO EU BY LAURA KAYALI, JULY 13, 2023 

VILNIUS — A resurgent NATO is set to tighten its grip on the Baltic Sea, complicating a vital transit route for Vladimir Putin’s navy in Russia’s backyard.

This week’s alliance summit in Vilnius was Finland’s first as a NATO member. On the summit’s eve, Turkey agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join — paving the way for a strategic shift in a region Moscow once dominated.

“[Sweden and Finland] make NATO much more geographically coherent. The Baltic Sea becomes a NATO lake, which is generally useful, also because of the Arctic’s increased importance,” said Ulrike Franke, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

NATO has steadily increased its control of the Baltic Sea — a crucial maritime gateway for the Russian fleet which has bases near St. Petersburg and in the heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave. During the Cold War, only Denmark and Germany at the far western edge of the Baltic were in the alliance. Poland joining NATO in 1999 and the three Baltic republics in 2004 put most of the sea’s southern shore under alliance control.

Finland and Sweden in NATO will close the vise on the sea from the north, leaving Russia with limited access. Both countries dropped their long-standing neutrality — in Sweden’s case dating back centuries — and last May applied to join the alliance in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

That means significantly expanding NATO’s border with Russia, strengthening defense in Northern Europe and making the alliance’s deterrence more credible.

“The Baltic states were worried about being a little isolated,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general. “One could imagine that Sweden and Finland would not have let them down, but access to ports and airports was not 100 percent guaranteed.”

Sweden and Finland joining also means expanding the alliance’s presence in the Arctic, a region increasingly strategic to both Russia and China.

Moscow isn’t pleased…

“It’s extremely important to realize under the current conditions that the Russian military infrastructure has never shifted towards Western Europe, it has always moved in the opposite direction,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. “It’s certainly regrettable that the Europeans fail to realize this mistake.”

Sweden’s accession to the alliance would “definitely be negative,” he added.

Hard power 

On Tuesday, NATO allies agreed to implement renewed regional defense plans. Sweden and Finland’s presence as members will be fully reflected in the alliance’s plans, exercises and targets, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference.

The two Nordic countries will help make the “magical promise” of Article 5 more effective, according to Kristine Berzina, managing director for the German Marshall Fund’s Geostrategy North. Under Article 5 — NATO’s cornerstone — an armed attack against one or more members is considered an attack on all.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the start of a meeting with NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners during the NATO summit, in Vilnius on July 12 | Pool photo by Jacques Witt via Getty images

The addition of the well-equipped Swedish and Finnish militaries will make it much more difficult for Russia to stage any attacks in the region.

“You need to have enough in place that, in case of a Crimea or a Ukrainian scenario, there’s actual ability to defend territory,” Berzina said. “With Finland and Sweden in, and [the Swedish Baltic island of] Gotland so close to Kaliningrad, in case of highly unlikely yet possible aggression from Russia, Russia cannot use the sea to its strategic advantage as it could right now.”

On the ground, this means more information sharing, more joint exercises and planning, and more military integration.

For example, a Finnish fighter jet flying near the Russian border can collect data and communicate with the Norwegians, who can then ask for more intel or ask the plane to fly elsewhere, said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Before NATO membership, “you could do it technically but, politically, you couldn’t plan to do that,” he said.

Soldiers, submarines, 5G

While benefitting from NATO’s protection, Stockholm and Helsinki will also bring assets to the table in terms of air defense, land forces and naval capabilities.

“The two countries are already interoperable with NATO, operate NATO-standard weapons systems, and participated in NATO exercise missions, which is one of the reasons why they were able to get in so quickly,” said Grand, adding that Helsinki and Stockholm won’t be “free riders” in the alliance.

Unlike most European countries, Finland didn’t stop spending money on the military after the Cold War ended.

According to Finnish media, Helsinki has one of the largest artillery arsenals and land forces in Europe — ranking ahead of heavyweights such as France, Germany and the U.K. Finland recently renewed its air fleet and is expected to have 64 U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets by 2026.

Sweden reinstated conscription in 2017, which applies to both men and women.

Stockholm did decrease defense spending in the 1990s and 2000s, but started ramping up again in recent years. However, it doesn’t expect to hit NATO’s 2 percent of GDP target until 2026.

Stockholm’s strength is in its navy, which is well-calibrated for the Baltic Sea. The Swedish air force is equipped with locally developed Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighters — designed to respond to a Russian attack and seen as a possible weapon that could be donated to Ukraine.

Beyond weaponry, Sweden and Finland can also help NATO with 5G, the fifth-generation of telecoms infrastructure, Grand said.

The two Nordic countries “bring know-how in an important technology and are trusted partners in the deployment of 5G for military needs,” he explained. Finland’s Nokia, Sweden’s Ericsson and China’s Huawei dominate the 5G civil market.

The two nations’ advanced military and technological capabilities come from being outside of NATO, Berzina said.

“They’re good at everything,” she said, “because they were by themselves.” 

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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A view of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea, January 7, 2020. Carina Johansen/NTB Scanpix/via REUTERS/File Photo/Editing by Germán & Co

Oil prices rise on cooling US inflation, China trade data

Reuters By Jeslyn Lerh, July 13, 2023

SINGAPORE, July 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Thursday after U.S. inflation and economic data sparked hopes that the Federal Reserve may have fewer interest rate hikes in store and Chinese trade figures showed monthly oil imports were the second-highest on record in June.

Brent crude futures gained 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $80.32 per barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $75.88.

U.S. data on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose modestly in June, registering the smallest annual increase in more than two years. Markets expect one more interest rate rise, but oil traders hope that may be it because higher rates can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

"The lower-than-expected read in U.S. inflation suggests that the tightening cycle from the Fed so far is having its desired effect in moderating pricing pressures," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, adding this had provided a "risk-on" environment for oil prices.

"Some catch-up gains seem to be at play, with the lacklustre U.S. dollar and some follow-through in China's stimulus hopes lately providing the catalysts for bearish sentiments to unwind," Yeap said.

Meanwhile, China's crude imports in June totalled 52.06 million metric tons, or 12.67 million barrels per day (bpd), jumping 45.3% on the year and hitting its second highest monthly figure on record, customs data released on Thursday showed.

Crude oil imports for January-June were up 11.7% at 282.1 million metric tons, while refined oil products exports for January-June were up 44.7% at 31.31 million metric tons, customs data showed.

However, sluggish global economic growth, slowing world trade and investment and geopolitical risks continue to impact China's trade, Lv Daliang, a General Administration of Customs spokesperson, said on Thursday.

Another factor capping price gains was a U.S. Energy Information Administration report of a much bigger-than-expected U.S. crude stock build of nearly 6 million barrels last week.

Gasoline inventories remained largely unchanged at 219.5 million barrels during the Fourth of July holiday week, a situation that is "almost unheard of," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures group.

Analysts had expected a big drawdown of gasoline stocks as drivers took to the roads for holiday travel.

Reporting by Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola in Washington; Editing by Jamie Freed and Jacqueline Wong

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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AES executive vice president and chief operating officer Bernerd Da Santos and AES Vietnam president Joseph Uddo discuss the Son My projects with Binh Thuan province's authorities in February 2023. Photo courtesy of the company. /Editing by Germán & Co

AES, PV Gas receive investment policy approval for LNG terminal project in central Vietnam

The venture will be managed by PV Gas and AES Corporation, and is slated to commence operations in 2027, boasting a capacity of 450 TBtu.

theinvestor.vn By Tri Duc, July 13, 2023 

A joint venture between American energy firm AES Corporation and Petrovietnam subsidiary PV Gas was granted investment policy approval for its $1.4 billion Son My LNG Terminal project by authorities in Binh Thuan province on Tuesday.

The terminal, to be built by the Son My LNG Terminal Project Company in the south-central province, will have an installed capacity of 450 TBtu and is expected to begin commercial operations in 2027, AES said in a release.

Plans for the Son My LNG Terminal in Binh Thuan province, south-central Vietnam. Photo courtesy of PV Gas.

“The investment policy approval for Son My LNG Terminal is a significant milestone that enables us to move forward with the development of this critical infrastructure project," said Joseph Uddo, president of AES Vietnam.

"With more than 12 years of operations in Vietnam, AES is committed to accelerating the future of energy through important projects like this. We are pleased to receive approval from the Binh Thuan People’s Committee and excited to partner with PV Gas on this strategic project that will contribute to Vietnam’s energy transition and economic growth,” he added.

U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Marc E. Knapper said:

“The Son My project will bring energy security to Vietnam in the transition to cleaner sources of energy. I am happy to see a world class U.S. company like AES as a partner of choice for PV Gas and the Government of Vietnam.”

The Son My LNG terminal project, together with AES’s 2.2 GW Son My 2 combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), represents a multibillion-dollar investment. Son My 2 CCGT, which received investment policy approval earlier this year, will bring safe and reliable energy to power growth in Vietnam while supporting the transition to cleaner and greener technologies.

The Son My LNG Terminal project has received investment policy approval from authorities in Binh Thuan province. The joint venture between AES Corporation and PV Gas will oversee the $1.4 billion project, which will have an installed capacity of 450 TBtu and begin commercial operations in 2027. AES Vietnam's President, Joseph Uddo, referred to the approval as a "significant milestone" and highlighted that the project will contribute to Vietnam's energy transition and economic growth. The project, along with AES's Son My 2 combined cycle gas turbine, represents a substantial investment aimed at supporting the adoption of cleaner and greener technologies.

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A national-security campaign led by Xi has hit Western management consultants, auditors and other firms GREG BAKER/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/Editing by Germán & Co

Xi Jinping Chokes Off Crucial Engine of China’s Economy

Foreign direct investment in China fell to $20 billion in the first quarter from $100 billion a year earlier, hurting an already struggling economy

WSJ By Lingling Wei, July 13, 2023

Desperate for capital and with their economies struggling, China’s cities are wooing Western businesses with previously unavailable goodies. Beijing has labeled 2023 the “Year of Investing in China” and local officials have embarked on promotional tours overseas to drum up interest from investors.

That effort is running headlong into President Xi Jinping’s national-security agenda, with its focus on fending off perceived foreign threats. That has made any Chinese investment a potential minefield for foreign firms.

A Xi-led campaign this year has hit Western management consultants, auditors and other firms with a wave of raids, investigations and detentions. Meanwhile, an expanded anti-espionage law has added to foreign executives’ worry that conducting routine business activities in China, such as market research, could be construed as spying.

The perception that doing business in China has become much riskier is choking the flow of capital into an economy already struggling with weak private investment and consumption, as well as soaring youth unemployment.

Foreign direct investment in China fell to $20 billion in the first quarter of this year, compared with $100 billion in last year’s first quarter, according to an analysis of government figures by analyst Mark Witzke at research firm Rhodium Group.

Goldman Sachs economists predict outflows from China this year will cancel out investment going into the country, a stunning change for a country that over the past four decades has consistently seen more money coming in than going out.

China’s growth, which in recent decades has been fueled by the country’s opening to the West, depends on foreign investment and expertise to boost innovation and productivity.

For Chinese leaders, keeping pressure on foreign firms while simultaneously trying to get them to invest is becoming an evermore precarious balancing act, which threatens to deprive the country of the capital, technologies, ideas and management skills that have helped power China’s rise.

Distressed cities

The tug of war is leaving financially distressed cities and townships across China in the lurch. Mired in debt and struggling to create jobs after three years of Covid-19 restrictions, many are in dire need of capital.

Local governments spent more last year than the year before, according to official statistics, triggered mainly by an 18% jump in health expenses used to cover Covid testing and related costs. Meanwhile, their income dropped, mainly because of a 23% year-over-year plunge in revenue from land sales to developers, a funding source on which local authorities long relied. Localities have borrowed more than they could afford, with debts owed directly by local governments amounting to 120% of their revenue.

Many officials say their traditional strategies for attracting foreign investment have foundered.

A trade official in Chengdu, the capital of southwestern Sichuan province, recently embarked on an investment-promotion trip to Europe. He returned empty-handed. “In my 20 years of trying to get investments from Europe, this was the first time we didn’t get to sign even one memorandum of understanding,” the official said.

A senior official in a county of southern Guangdong province, which earlier this year set a goal of attracting nearly $300 billion in investment in the next five years, told a visiting American trade group recently that the county would reward any U.S. corporate “decision maker” investing there 10% of the value of the promised deal, according to people briefed on the matter.

The trade group turned down the county official’s offer, which in the U.S. would constitute an illegal bribe, the people said. The Guangdong government didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Business pause

Recent surveys by business groups in China have shown American, German and other European companies pausing expansion or reducing investment in China. Crane, a large U.S. maker of vending machines and other industrial products that has been manufacturing in China since the 1990s, has sharply scaled back its investments in the country partly because of increased policy uncertainty, according to people close to the firm. Crane, based in Stamford, Conn., didn’t respond to questions.

Sean Stein, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai and a former U.S. Consul General in the city, said the recent pressure on U.S. consulting firms risks “cutting off the eyes and ears of foreign businesses.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen objected to China’s treatment of U.S. companies when she met with senior officials in Beijing last week. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is also expected to raise the issue for her coming trip to China.

In the seaport city of Ningbo in Zhejiang province, local officials held a “Investing in Zhejiang” forum, where they touted a checklist of initiatives they could offer foreign investors, from building better roads and pipes to offering tax incentives and subsidies for purchases of high-end equipment.

“The message is that we’re really open for business,” said Cameron Johnson, a partner at TidalWave Solutions, a U.S. consultant and one of the half-dozen Westerners who attended the event in May.

At the same time, uncertainty over policies from Beijing has created paralysis in global corporate boardrooms, he said. “What’s the government’s real focus?” said Johnson, an American who has spent more than two decades in China. “Can there be more clarity or guidance on policy so foreign businesses can develop a road map to comply?”

Mixed messages

Pixelworks, a Portland, Ore., designer and producer of chips used in videos and other electronic display devices, has been welcomed with open arms by local officials in Shanghai, where its China operation is based. They are especially supportive of efforts by Pixelworks’ CEO Todd DeBonis to get the company’s Chinese subsidiary listed on Shanghai’s STAR board, the country’s equivalent to the Nasdaq.

“We’re going all-in in China,” DeBonis said, adding that most of Pixelworks’ research and development talent is based in China, and that is where the firm derives most of its revenue.

Despite the local support, Pixelworks is facing pressure from China’s central government to reconfigure its Chinese subsidiary to make sure it is independent from the company’s American operations. That is the kind of requirement increasingly imposed on foreign companies as part of Beijing’s national-security agenda, business consultants and lawyers advising multinational companies say. 

For Pixelworks, that means the company has had to essentially split itself in two, with its China operation separated from its U.S. parent firm, to get Chinese regulators to approve its initial-public-offering application.

Over the past 2½ years, Pixelworks has undergone a painstaking process aimed at making its Chinese subsidiary independent from the U.S. parent. As part of that effort, Pixelworks has transferred the intellectual property specific to its China operation from the U.S. parent to the China entity—a move intended to ensure the security of those patents and trademarks against any potential U.S. sanctions that could make them off limits to China’s markets.

To comply with Chinese security concerns, Pixelworks recently moved 15 employees who worked on projects for the U.S. parent to a separate floor of its office tower. Those employees, all Chinese nationals, have their own office networks that are completely separate from Pixelworks’ China operations, and confine their work to U.S. projects.

In late June, several officials from China’s Commerce Ministry in Beijing visited Pixelworks’ offices to “better understand” its businesses and the company’s progress in separating its China operation, said DeBonis, who at the time was attending a U.S.-China forum and fly-fishing in Montana and was informed of the visit by his China staffers.

DeBonis said Pixelworks’ China operation aims to submit its IPO application to Chinese regulators later this year. To be approved, it will need to convince Beijing it has bulletproofed its intellectual property against any potential U.S. sanctions.

“They won’t approve your application unless you mitigate the risks to Chinese shareholders,” DeBonis said.

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News round-up, July 12, 2023

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Image credit: illustration 18511393 © Melonstone | Dreamstime.com by Energy Central

Adding Esteemed New Members to the Energy Central 100,000 View Club!

“Hard to believe we're already past the halfway point of 2023, but that's the reality. And with those first 6 months have come some key and compelling utility industry stories-- from clean energy transitions to keeping the grid reliable amid challenging conditions to policy and regulations driving the coming evolution in the sector, the Energy Central Community has been at the forefront of it all. 

And as we all use this community to stay on top of the latest news, we especially want to shout out the dedicated members of the community who continue to share and keep us all informed and discussing, debating, and learning as our top contributors. 

Those top contributors are valuable to us, and we like to take a moment to take stock of them-- and so that means it's time for our regular check-in to see which heavy-hitting contributors have reached the milestone of the Energy Central 100,000 View Club.

We've previously welcomed 38 different Energy Central members to this stratosphere (Induction classes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9), and it's time to welcome 3 more entries into the club:

• Doug Houseman, Utility Industry Innovator with Burns & McDonnell

  • Recommended recent post: Plan to Zero (#27) Balancing the “-ility” issues

• Germán Toro Ghio, CEO of Germán & Co.

  • Recommended recent post: "The Covert Conflict on Lithium: An Examination of the Other Hidden War"

• John Egan, President of Egan Energy Communications

  • Recommended recent post: Utility Community Relations: Say “Hello” to the People (AKA “Customers”) Who Pay Your Salary

These Energy Central regulars join the rest of the 100k club members who have garnered a combined 100,000 views of the content they have submitted to Energy Central. Achieved through an impressive combination of frequency in sharing and high-quality of contributions when they do share (thus allowing their articles to reach even more eyeballs). 

As these devoted members of the Energy Central Community have demonstrated, the power of Energy Central is only as strong as the insights and discussions brought in by our community of experts, professionals, and passionate individuals. Thanks to our community members, whether you have 100,000 views or 100 views, for making that happen!

And are you interested in one day making this esteemed list of elite Energy Central contributors, and thus establishing yourself as a real thought leader in the community? Well, the only way to start is by sharing your thoughts and your work today! So, share a post today, start a valuable conversation, and who knows—maybe it will become viral and you’ll join the vaunted members of this club soon enough!

Can't wait to see you join this list next!

Matt Chester

Community Manager

Most read…

The Energy Transition Is Underway. Fossil Fuel Workers Could Be Left Behind.

The Biden administration is trying to increase renewable energy investments in distressed regions, but some are skeptical those measures would be enough to make up for job losses.

NYT By Madeleine Ngo, reporting from Washington, July 12, 2023

Measure It Differently, and Inflation Is Behind Us

Investors who think that underlying inflation is falling but not fast enough for the Fed should be troubled by an alternative measure of price increases

WSJ By James Mackintosh, July 12, 2023

OpenAI’s Sam Altman Is Taking a Nuclear-Energy Startup Public

Oklo, which is developing a small modular nuclear reactor, is valued around $850 million

WSJ By Jennifer Hiller and Amrith Ramkumar, July 11, 2023 

Hydrogen boiler trial scrapped in setback for net zero

Scheme abandoned following opposition from residents who preferred gas boilers and heat pumps

The Telegraph By Melissa Lawford, July 11, 2023

Exclusive: Shell, BP pursue arbitration claims against Venture Global LNG

A similar lawsuit was filed by Edison SpA in May, as well as the London Court of International Arbitration. Meanwhile, Repsol SA, one of Venture Global LNG's clients, has requested confidential records from US regulators that could reveal more information about the plant's launch.

REUTERS By Marwa Rashad and Curtis Williams, July 12, 2023

NOW/China lashes back at NATO criticism, warns it will protect its rights

Reuters, July 12, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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The coal-fired power plant in Coshocton County, Ohio, was shut down in 2020.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

The Energy Transition Is Underway. Fossil Fuel Workers Could Be Left Behind.

The Biden administration is trying to increase renewable energy investments in distressed regions, but some are skeptical those measures would be enough to make up for job losses.

NYT By Madeleine Ngo, reporting from Washington, July 12, 2023

Tiffany Berger spent more than a decade working at a coal-fired power plant in Coshocton County, Ohio, eventually becoming a unit operator making about $100,000 annually.

But in 2020, American Electric Power shut down the plant, and Ms. Berger struggled to find a job nearby that offered a comparable salary. She sold her house, moved in with her parents and decided to help run their farm in Newcomerstown, Ohio, about 30 minutes away.

They sell some of the corn, beans and beef they harvest, but it is only enough to keep the farm running. Ms. Berger, 39, started working part time at a local fertilizer and seed company last year, making just a third of what she used to earn. She said she had “never dreamed” the plant would close.

“I thought I was set to retire from there,” Ms. Berger said. “It’s a power plant. I mean, everybody needs power.”

The United States is undergoing a rapid shift away from fossil fuels as new battery factories, wind and solar projects, and other clean energy investments crop up across the country. An expansive climate law that Democrats passed last year could be even more effective than Biden administration officials had estimated at reducing fossil fuel emissions.

While the transition is projected to create hundreds of thousands of clean energy jobs, it could be devastating for many workers and counties that have relied on coal, oil and gas for their economic stability.

Estimates of the potential job losses in the coming years vary, but roughly 900,000 workers were directly employed by fossil fuel industries in 2022, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Politics Across the United States

The Biden administration is trying to mitigate the impact, mostly by providing additional tax advantages for renewable energy projects that are built in areas vulnerable to the energy transition.

But some economists, climate researchers and union leaders said they are skeptical the initiatives will be enough. Beyond construction, wind and solar farms typically require few workers to operate, and new clean energy jobs might not necessarily offer comparable wages or align with the skills of laid-off workers.

Coal plants have already been shutting down for years, and the nation’s coal production has fallen from its peak in the late 2000s. U.S. coal-fired generation capacity is projected to decline sharply to about 50 percent of current levels by 2030, according to the Energy Information Administration. About 41,000 workers remain in the coal mining industry, down from about 177,000 in the mid-1980s.

The industry’s demise is a problem not just for its workers but also for the communities that have long relied on coal to power their tax revenue. The loss of revenue from mines, plants and workers can mean less money for schools, roads and law enforcement. A recent paper from the Aspen Institute found that from 1980 to 2019, regions exposed to the decline of coal saw long-run reductions in earnings and employment rates, greater uptake of Medicare and Medicaid benefits and substantial decreases in population, particularly among younger workers. That “leaves behind a population that is disproportionately old, sick and poor,” according to the paper.

The Biden administration has promised to help those communities weather the impact, for both economic and political reasons. Failure to adequately help displaced workers could translate into the kind of populist backlash that hurt Democrats in the wake of globalization as companies shifted factories to China. Promises to restore coal jobs also helped Donald J. Trump clinch the 2016 election, securing him crucial votes in states like Pennsylvania.

Federal officials have vowed to create jobs in hard-hit communities and ensure that displaced workers “benefit from the new clean energy economy” by offering developers billions in bonus tax credits to put renewable energy projects in regions dependent on fossil fuels.

Tiffany Berger, who was laid off when the plant in Coshocton County was shut down, struggled to find work that offered a comparable salary. She moved in with her parents and decided to help run her family’s farm.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

If new investments like solar farms or battery storage facilities are built in those regions, called “energy communities,” developers could get as much as 40 percent of a project’s cost covered. Businesses receiving credits for producing electricity from renewable sources could earn a 10 percent boost.

The Inflation Reduction Act also set aside at least $4 billion in tax credits that could be used to build clean energy manufacturing facilities, among other projects, in regions with closed coal mines or plants, and it created a program that could guarantee up to $250 billion in loans to repurpose facilities like a shuttered power plant for clean energy uses.

Brian Anderson, the executive director of the Biden administration’s interagency working group on energy communities, pointed to other federal initiatives, including increased funding for projects to reclaim abandoned mine lands and relief funds to revitalize coal communities.

Still, he said that the efforts would not be enough, and that officials had limited funding to directly assist more communities.

“We’re standing right at the cusp of potentially still leaving them behind again,” Mr. Anderson said.

Phil Smith, the chief of staff at the United Mine Workers of America, said that the tax credits for manufacturers could help create more jobs but that $4 billion likely would not be enough to attract facilities to every region. He said he also hoped for more direct assistance for laid-off workers, but Congress did not fund those initiatives.

“We think that’s still something that needs to be done,” Mr. Smith said.

Gordon Hanson, the author of the Aspen Institute paper and a professor of urban policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, said he worried the federal government was relying too heavily on the tax credits, in part because companies would likely be more inclined to invest in growing areas. He urged federal officials to increase unemployment benefits to distressed regions and funding for work force development programs.

Even with the bonus credit, clean energy investments might not reach the hardest-hit areas because a broad swath of regions meets the federal definition of an energy community, said Daniel Raimi, a fellow at Resources for the Future.

“If the intention of that provision was to specifically provide an advantage to the hardest-hit fossil fuel communities, I don’t think it’s done that,” Mr. Raimi said.

Local officials have had mixed reactions to the federal efforts. Steve Henry, the judge-executive of Webster County, Ky., said he believed they could bring renewable energy investments and help attract other industries to the region. The county experienced a significant drop in tax revenue after its last mine shut down in 2019, and it now employs fewer 911 dispatchers and deputy sheriffs because officials cannot offer more competitive wages.

“I think we can recover,” he said. “But it’s going to be a long recovery.”

Adam O’Nan, the judge-executive of Union County, Ky., which has one coal mine left, said he thought renewable energy would bring few jobs to the area, and he doubted that a manufacturing plant would be built because of the county’s inadequate infrastructure.

“It’s kind of difficult to see how it reaches down into Union County at this point,” Mr. O’Nan said. “We’re best suited for coal at the moment.”

Federal and state efforts so far have done little to help workers like James Ault, 42, who was employed at an oil refinery in Contra Costa County, Calif., for 14 years before he was laid off in 2020. To keep his family afloat, he depleted his pension and withdrew most of the money from his 401(k) early.

In early 2022, he moved to Roseville, Calif., to work at a power plant, but he was laid off again after four months. He worked briefly as a meal delivery driver before landing a job in February at a nearby chemical manufacturer.

He now makes $17 an hour less than he did at the refinery and is barely able to cover his mortgage. Still, he said he would not return to the oil industry.

“With our push away from gasoline, I feel that I would be going into an industry that is kind of dying,” Mr. Ault said.

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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The Fed is striving to tame inflation, which is at different levels depending on how it is measured. PHOTO: ERIN SCOTT/BLOOMBERG NEWS/Editing by Germán & Co

Measure It Differently, and Inflation Is Behind Us

Investors who think that underlying inflation is falling but not fast enough for the Fed should be troubled by an alternative measure of price increases

WSJ By James Mackintosh, July 12, 2023

If core inflation came in just below 3%, the Federal Reserve would breathe a huge sigh of relief, stocks would head to the races and consumers could relax about the rising cost of living. 

It isn’t merely a dream: Measure U.S. price changes the way Europe does, and inflation was already there in May. Measure them as the U.S. does, and on Wednesday new figures are predicted by economists to show core inflation far higher, at 5% for June.

The U.S. and Europe use different methods to calculate inflation data, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates American price rises the European way too, although the statistic remains obscure.

Right now, measuring U.S. inflation using the two methods shows radically different results. Investors who think they have a handle on the current consensus—that underlying inflation is falling but not fast enough for the Fed—should be troubled by the alternative message coming from the much lower European version of the figures.

As inflation climbs in the U.S., rising food and energy costs have pushed the nation’s most popular price index to its highest level in four decades. WSJ’s Gwynn Guilford explains how the consumer-price index works and what it can tell you about inflation. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds

U.S. core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy—measured using the standard consumer-price index was 2.3 percentage points higher than the European-style inflation, known as the harmonized index of consumer prices. It is the biggest gap there has ever been. 

The main reason is that Europe’s measure, known as HICP, doesn’t include the imaginary cost of what a homeowner would pay to rent their house, which makes up about a third of the U.S. core CPI. Known as “owners’ equivalent rent” or imputed rent, the measure has long had its critics.

Exclude something that no one actually pays, and which is calculated from guesses by homeowners of the rental value of their house, and core inflation’s looking basically fine, at a fraction under 3%. I’ve concentrated on core inflation, because food and oil prices swing so much that they make it hard to tell if the economy is generating inflation pressures the central bank needs to tackle.

So why is everyone still so concerned about inflation?

The answer is partly about biases and partly about change, but it is mostly about worries that the economy is running too hot to be confident that inflation will come down to the 2% target.

The bias is that CPI is long established and widely used in the U.S. The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces its own HICP inflation data as an experimental measure; many economists and investors don’t even realize it is available. 

Housing Makes the Difference

The HICP inflation gauge excludes imputed rent for homeowners, so is much lower.

Gap between inflation measures

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (HICP), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (CPI, PCE)

To make matters even more confusing, CPI gets almost all the focus, even though the Fed sets its inflation target based on the personal-consumption expenditures price index, PCE, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. PCE comes in lower than CPI, but still puts large weight on imputed rent that isn’t actually paid.

Even if the Fed thought HICP was better—and there is no sign it does—there is no way it could change the measure without drawing political heat. Inflation figures are already subject to deep skepticism from some economists, who point out that improvements to the indexes usually make inflation come in lower than on older methods.

The most important question that the gauges seek to answer is whether the underlying pressures are so strong that the economy needs to be restrained further. Will a strong jobs market mean workers flush with pay increases can consume more, keeping demand up and so allowing companies to raise prices? 

If so, the Fed will have to keep raising rates. The lower core HICP inflation suggests the problem of a strong jobs market is less worrisome than on the CPI measure. But hawks are concerned that continued above-inflation pay increases will push inflation up, as companies pass on higher costs. Persistent inflation above 2% might push up expectations of inflation, in turn leading to more pay demands.

Alternatively, will companies facing more expensive borrowing trim spending, hire fewer people and resist pay demands? If so, wages will moderate, demand fall and the Fed relax—at least so long as slowdown doesn’t turn into recession. Doves point to tentative signs that jobs are less plentiful, with initial unemployment claims up and wage increases decelerating for the hourly, less-skilled and lower-paid workers who were most in demand. Doves are also reassured by inflation expectations from consumers and investors not far from the 2% target.

Indicators that have a history of moving in tandem often converge again after a period of moving apart. CPI and PCE might well come down toward HICP, because rent increases have slowed. Unfortunately, even if core inflation does drop more, it will still be too high for comfort on the CPI and PCE gauges that investors and the Fed focus on.

Inflation isn’t the only place where the economic signals are haywire. Lots of the usual indicators of what the economy is doing and where it is going are telling different stories, something I’ll come back to in the next Streetwise. Meanwhile, all of this leaves me concerned—and confused, never a good place to be when trying to figure out what the market will do next.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the nuclear-energy industry can make electricity that is ‘a way better deal than anything else out there.’ PHOTO: CLARA MOKRI FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

OpenAI’s Sam Altman Is Taking a Nuclear-Energy Startup Public

Oklo, which is developing a small modular nuclear reactor, is valued around $850 million

WSJ By Jennifer Hiller and Amrith Ramkumar, July 11, 2023 

Oklo, a nuclear-fission startup backed by Sam Altman, plans to go public through a merger with his special-purpose acquisition company, company officials said Tuesday.

The deal would add to recent SPAC mergers involving nuclear companies and test investor appetite for clean-energy startups, which surged in 2020 and early 2021 before falling out of favor. Companies such as Oklo trying to build a new generation of smaller nuclear power projects must prove they can deliver on time and on budget, unlike the fleet of large nuclear plants that preceded them. 

California-based Oklo is developing a small modular nuclear reactor design and plans to sell electricity into the competitive power market, including through the kind of agreements that wind and solar developers often cut with corporate and industrial firms that want to buy carbon-free power.

Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI—the artificial-intelligence startup behind the viral chatbot ChatGPT—said the nuclear-energy industry can make electricity that is “a way better deal than anything else out there.” 

At their peak, SPACs accounted for 70% of all IPOs, with $95 billion raised. But now, the market has dried up and shares of companies that did SPAC deals have crashed. WSJ explains the decline of the IPO vehicle. Illustration: Ali Larkin

Nuclear fission can generate energy without greenhouse-gas emissions, and, unlike other technologies such as solar, it can do so 24 hours a day. The process of splitting atoms in nuclear-fission power plants provides nearly 20% of U.S. electricity.

Oklo is valued in the transaction at roughly $850 million. Somewhat unusually, it would go public by combining with AltC Acquisition ALCC -1.42%decrease; red down pointing triangle, a SPAC co-founded by Altman and Michael Klein, a former Citigroup banker and serial blank-check company creator. 

Also known as a blank-check company, a SPAC is a shell company that raises money, then lists publicly with the sole intent of combining with a private company to take it public. After regulators approve the transaction, the company going public replaces the SPAC in the stock market.

Such deals are notorious for enriching company insiders at the expense of other investors. At least a dozen startups that went public during the SPAC boom have filed for bankruptcy, and many others are burning through their cash.

Even in the risky world of SPACs, it is uncommon for an investor to take one of their companies public through one of their own blank-check companies, though not unprecedented. Having the same investor on both sides of a deal can raise concerns for other shareholders about whether they are getting the best outcome. 

The AltC SPAC is also running up against its deadline to do a deal before it has to return cash to its investors, raising questions about the merger’s timing.

AltC and Oklo said they have been working on the transaction for nine months and that AltC had entered into a letter of intent that extended the deadline for three months. Altman recused himself from the transaction review and approval processes on both sides. Altman, Oklo’s founders and Klein have agreed not to sell shares until well after the deal closes, the companies said.

AltC holds $500 million in cash that Oklo could use to expand the business, though that figure will likely drop. SPAC investors can pull their money out of such deals before they close and have been withdrawing in droves during market turbulence over the past two years, making it harder for companies to raise substantial amounts of cash from the transactions. Mergers that lack simultaneous private investments such as the proposed Oklo transaction have been among the worst performers.

Small modular reactor startup X-energy is attempting to go public through a SPAC backed by private-equity firm Ares Management in a $1.8 billion deal. The two sides lowered the valuation by $300 million last month. Competitor NuScale Power went through a blank-check merger last year. Its stock is down about 25%, less than the average decline for companies that went public this way. 

“It has been a difficult year in the SPAC world but I always try not to pay too much attention to trends and look at each opportunity,” Altman said.

Altman is also a backer of nuclear-fusion startup Helion Energy, which signed a deal with Microsoft, believed to be the first commercial agreement for fusion power. Nuclear-fusion systems such as Helion’s would theoretically generate electricity from the energy released when hydrogen and helium are combined, the process that powers the stars. Microsoft has agreed to purchase electricity from Helion within about five years. 

Both Oklo and Helion will try to directly compete with other forms of power generation, as opposed to asking utility companies and their ratepayers to commit to funding projects for which the first-of-a-kind design costs could be uncertain.

Oklo plans to deliver its first reactors in Idaho and Ohio and must navigate a rigorous licensing process with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It is also developing nuclear fuel-recycling technologies with the U.S. Energy Department and U.S. national laboratories, which would provide fuel for its reactors and others.

Altman has a long history with Oklo. He met the founders in 2013 around the time they started the firm, recruited them to startup accelerator Y Combinator in 2014 and invested in the company and became board chair in 2015, a position he still holds.

Altman said the goals of making artificial intelligence and energy cheap and abundant are tied together.

“The AI systems of the future will need tremendous amounts of energy and this fission and fusion can help deliver them,” Altman said, adding that he thinks that as AI advances it will contribute to nuclear-system designs.

Dozens of developers globally are testing small modular reactor designs, though there are no SMRs making electricity in the U.S., and none under construction. Supporters say the smaller-scale reactors could prove cheaper and faster to build than their massive predecessors; skeptics say the effort is a gamble on a technology with unproven economics. At the earliest, such reactors could be available later this decade. 

Jacob DeWitte, co-founder and chief executive of Oklo, said the company is trying to avoid the mistakes of the past, in which utility customers paid rising costs for building a reactor. “That traditional business model is just very difficult to deliver and to execute on,” DeWitte said.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Source: IEA

Hydrogen boiler trial scrapped in setback for net zero

Scheme abandoned following opposition from residents who preferred gas boilers and heat pumps

The Telegraph By Melissa Lawford, July 11, 2023

A net zero trial of hydrogen heating systems in a town near Liverpool has been scrapped after locals pushed back in favour of gas boilers and heat pumps.

In a blow to the Government’s race to go green, the energy minister Lord Callanan announced on Twitter on Monday that plans to make Whitby, Ellesmere Port, into the UK’s first hydrogen-powered village would be scrapped because of a lack of support from residents.

Cadent and British Gas had proposed to install and trial hydrogen heating systems in 2,000 homes in the town for a period of two years.

Lord Callanan said: “After listening to the views of residents, it’s clear that there is no strong local support, therefore Whitby will no longer be considered as the location for the UK’s first hydrogen village trial.”

Residents complained over a 10-month consultation process that they wanted to keep their gas boilers and wanted to use heat pumps instead, Cadent said.

The pushback highlights the challenge faced by the ministers as they scramble to decarbonise Britain’s homes.

In 2021, the Government announced plans for a trial village as part of a plan to become a “world-leading hydrogen economy” in its bid to hit net zero by 2050. 

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UK HYDROGEN DEMAND FORECAST

Source: BEIS

Unlike natural gas, hydrogen does not release carbon when it is burnt.

Many families were apparently still opposed to the plans despite terms laid out by Cadent and British Gas when they submitted their bid at the end of March, which included making the trial optional and letting residents continue to power their homes using gas if they preferred.

Those who opted to participate were promised new hydrogen appliances, installed and maintained for free; price-matching to natural gas for the programme’s duration; and £2,500 in home energy efficiency improvements.

The decision to scrap the trial followed heavy criticism in a report by the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which last month blamed the Government’s “lack of a strategic direction” on electrification and hydrogen policy for “creating systemic uncertainty”, which the CCC said is holding back progress on hydrogen infrastructure.

Lord Callanan said that the Government was in ongoing discussions with the Northern Gas Networks (NGN) about plans for a separate hydrogen trial in Redcar, a town on the Yorkshire coast, and will “announce next steps shortly.” 

NGN has proposed 2,000 homes in parts of Redcar use hydrogen instead of natural gas for a minimum of two years from 2025.

A spokesman for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “We have always said we wouldn’t force these trials on communities without their support, and we have listened to the people of Whitby after they raised their concerns.”

A Cadent spokesman said: “We believe strongly in the role that hydrogen can play alongside other technologies and energy sources in reaching net zero. 

“While Whitby won’t to be the location for the trial, the information we have gained over the last 12 months will still play an invaluable role in shaping how the UK heats its homes and businesses in the future.”

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Source: Reuters

Exclusive: Shell, BP pursue arbitration claims against Venture Global LNG

A similar lawsuit was filed by Edison SpA in May, as well as the London Court of International Arbitration. Meanwhile, Repsol SA, one of Venture Global LNG's clients, has requested confidential records from US regulators that could reveal more information about the plant's launch.

REUTERS By Marwa Rashad and Curtis Williams, July 12, 2023

[1/2]The Bermuda-flagged LNG tanker Methane Lydon Volney, is seen offshore of the islet of Revithoussa, Greece, September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Costas Baltas/File Photo

LONDON, July 12 (Reuters) - Top LNG traders Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L) have separately filed for arbitration against U.S. exporter Venture Global LNG for failing to supply contracted cargoes, even as it sold to non-contract customers as prices soared, four people familiar with the matter said.

A Venture Global LNG spokesperson did not comment on the Shell and BP claims. Last month, the company said it was in full compliance with terms of its long-term contracts and cited a need for extensive commissioning of its modular facility.

Shell and BP missed out on billions of dollars in sales that went to Venture Global LNG because they were unable to get their contracted fuel, one of the people familiar with the arbitration filings said. Prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) soared last year on Russia's gas-supply cuts to Europe.

The companies filed their cases at the London Court of International Arbitration. A similar case was brought by Italian utility Edison SpA (EDNn.MI) in May. Another Venture Global LNG contract customer, Spanish energy firm Repsol SA (REP.MC), has asked U.S. regulators to release confidential records that would shed light on the plant's startup.

Founded by a former energy lawyer and investment banker, Venture Global LNG has emerged as a market force with its ability to obtain financing and rapidly build export plants. It has pledged to produce 70 million tons of LNG per year once the projects are completed.

The contracts were tied to Calcasieu Pass LNG, the first of Venture Global LNG's three planned facilities. It stitched together 18 liquefaction units to produce up to 12 million tons per year of the supercooled gas.

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Image by Germán & Co

NOW/China lashes back at NATO criticism, warns it will protect its rights

Reuters, July 12, 2023

BEIJING, July 12 (Reuters) - Beijing lashed back at NATO's accusation that China challenges the bloc's interests and security, and opposed any attempt by the military alliance to expand its footprint into the Asia-Pacific region.

In a strongly worded communique issued midway into a two-day summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on Tuesday, NATO said the People's Republic of China (PRC) challenged its interests, security and values with its "ambitions and coercive policies".

"The PRC employs a broad range of political, economic, and military tools to increase its global footprint and project power, while remaining opaque about its strategy, intentions and military build-up," NATO heads of state said in their communique.

"The PRC's malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and disinformation target Allies and harm Alliance security."

The Chinese mission to the European said in a statement on Tuesday the China-related content of the communique disregarded basic facts, distorted China's position and policies, and deliberately discredited China.

"We firmly oppose and reject this," it said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters at the summit that while China was not a NATO "adversary", it was increasingly challenging the rules-based international order with its "coercive behaviour."

"China is increasingly challenging the rules-based international order, refusing to condemn Russia's war against Ukraine, threatening Taiwan, and carrying out a substantial military build-up," he said.

However, NATO made no mention of Taiwan in its communique.

Taiwan's foreign ministry said it was "very meaningful" for Stoltenberg to once again clearly express his concern for security in the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan is a responsible, democratic member of the Indo-Pacific region, and is willing to work with like-minded partners such as Europe and the United States to jointly combat coercion by and challenges from authoritarian regimes, it added.

'SPREADING ITS TENTACLES'

Attendance at the two-day summit also includes some Asia-Pacific leaders.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, joining for a second time, aimed to remind the military alliance to pay heed to East Asia risks, while South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol sought deeper international security cooperation amid rising North Korean threats and tension over China.

In May, Kishida said Japan had no plans to become a NATO member, even though NATO was planning a Tokyo office, its first in Asia, to facilitate consultations in the region.

The Chinese mission said China resolutely opposed NATO's "eastward movement into the Asia-Pacific region" and warned any action threatening Beijing's rights would be met with a resolute response.

"Any act that jeopardises China's legitimate rights and interests will be met with a resolute response," it said.

In the communique, NATO said China sought to control key technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials and supply chains, and that Beijing also used its economic leverage to create strategic dependencies and enhance its influence.

China's state-run Xinhua news agency hit back, saying in a report that the wars and conflicts involving NATO states suggest the bloc is a "grave challenge" to global peace and stability.

"Despite all the chaos and conflict already inflicted, NATO is spreading its tentacles to the Asia-Pacific region with an express aim of containing China."

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News round-up, July 11, 2023

Thoughts for a day on Tuesday 11 July

"Cluster munitions are the only viable, unfortunately —solution— to put end Ukraine's warfare… 

According to the International Red Cross, cluster munitions have been a significant issue for many years. These weapons have a broad range and often fail to detonate as intended, causing numerous civilian casualties. Even though only a few countries have used cluster munitions, many possess them in their stockpiles. The consequences could be worse if even a small amount of these stockpiled cluster munitions were used or transferred to other countries or non-State armed groups. Numerous countries are signing up for the Convention on Cluster Munitions to tackle the humanitarian problems linked to these weapons. 

There are approximately 90 countries that have stockpiles of cluster munitions, with around 30 of them producing these weapons. The use of cluster munitions has been documented in over 20 countries, causing harm to both military personnel and civilians. Most victims of cluster munitions are civilians, including children, who often mistake these submunitions for toys or other harmless objects. Using these weapons also has long-term effects on the environment, as unexploded submunitions can remain active for years after deployment, making areas unsafe for habitation or farming. 

Efforts to enhance the technology of cluster munitions, including the creation of self-destruct systems or submunitions with lower explosive force, have yet to prove to be entirely feasible or effective in solving the underlying issue. The Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits these weapons' use, production, and stockpiling, has been signed by 119 countries, showing the international community's dedication to addressing the humanitarian concerns associated with cluster munitions.

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Most read…

IEA says critical minerals supply could pull close to demand by 2030

While the supply picture in the energy sector is indeed improving, we must not overlook the warning from the Paris-based energy watchdog regarding the potential risks posed by delays and cost overruns for projects.

Reuters By Eric Onstad, July 11, 2023, editing by Germán & Co

In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs Nato

Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild

The Guardian by Timothy Garton Ash, July 11, 2023

Biden’s hydrogen bombshell leaves Europe in the dust

The EU is investing billions into becoming a green energy superpower. But Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act means it’s the U.S. reaping the rewards.

POLITICO.COM By GABRIEL GAVIN and BEN LEFEBVRE, July 7, 2023 

New power lines take a decade to build because of red tape, complains National Grid

Energy company blasts Britain’s planning rules amid ongoing row over delays

The Telegraph By Gareth Corfield,  July 11, 2023 

The Flawed Moral Logic of Sending Cluster Munitions to Ukraine

The New York Times By *The Editorial Board, July 10, 2023

*The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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IEA says critical minerals supply could pull close to demand by 2030

While the supply picture in the energy sector is indeed improving, we must not overlook the warning from the Paris-based energy watchdog regarding the potential risks posed by delays and cost overruns for projects.

Reuters By Eric Onstad, July 11, 2023, editing by Germán & Co

LONDON, July 11 (Reuters) - Supply of minerals critical to the energy transition could move close to levels needed to support climate pledges by 2030 after a surge in investment, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday - provided all projects go as planned.

Consultants and analysts have warned of looming shortages due to surging demand for key minerals like lithium and cobalt used in electric vehicles, wind turbines and other clean energy technologies.

But after investment in critical minerals production jumped 30% last year to $41 billion, having gained 20% in 2021, that picture is looking brighter, the IEA said.

In key battery mineral lithium, the IEA forecasts supply by 2030 will reach 420,000 metric tons - only a touch short of demand estimated at 443,000 to meet government pledges, though well below the 702,000 required for net zero.

"We are happy that for a change we can give some good news," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told Reuters in an interview.

"This is testimony that the markets are buying in to the fact that the clean energy transition is moving very fast."

While the supply picture is improving, the Paris-based energy watchdog warned that delays and cost overruns for projects posed a risk to the upbeat scenario.

More work is also needed to diversify from key nations that have tight control on output of many minerals, such as China, Indonesia and Congo, the IEA added in a report.

The newly financed projects will help meet rising demand for critical minerals that the IEA has calculated will be needed to meet climate pledges made by governments, which would likely result in a global temperature rise of 1.7 C by 2100.

The agency made separate estimates of what would be necessary to meet a net zero-emission scenario by 2050.

Mining companies needed to make more progress in curbing greenhouse gas emissions and water use, the IEA said.

Twenty top miners emitted 0.18 kg of CO2 per kg of minerals in 2021, the same as in 2020, while water use climbed to 7.9 cubic metres per metric ton of mined output in 2021 from 5.4 cubic metres in 2019, the IEA said.

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Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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President Joe Biden with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, in May. Photograph: Susan Walsh/AP/Editing by Germán & Co

In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs Nato

Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild

The Guardian by Timothy Garton Ash, July 11, 2023

Unless the US gives bolder leadership on long-term security for Ukraine at Nato’s Vilnius summit this week, historians may one day ask, “Who lost Ukraine?” And their shocking answer might be: President Joe Biden.

I say this after talking to a wide range of people in Kyiv last week, before departing Ukraine on Saturday, the 500th day of the largest war in Europe since 1945. There’s still the extraordinary fighting spirit that I found on my last visit, in February. But in five months, some people seem to have aged five years. They are exhausted. The casualties, military and civilian, continue to mount.

With other members of our European Council on Foreign Relations fact-finding mission, I witnessed prayers being chanted in St Michael’s monastery over the coffin of the Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina. As she was visiting Kramatorsk to document Russian war crimes, she herself became the victim of a Russian war crime. While the Biden administration worries at every single step about escalation, Vladimir Putin has continued to escalate – notably with the blowing-up of the Kakhovka dam, which has ruined vast tracts of Ukrainian land. Ecocide complements genocide.

In a recent poll, 78% of Ukrainians said close family members or friends had been wounded or killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion last year. The pain is partly masked by the adrenaline of resistance, but after the war, the country will face widespread trauma. A priest told us about a soldier who returned after some months at the front, but could not sleep. Back home, it was just too quiet.

Senior defence officials frankly acknowledged how slowly this summer’s counteroffensive was progressing, especially against Russia’s minefields and multiple lines of anti-tank defences in the south. The big combined arms push by western-trained and equipped brigades is yet to come, but in this kind of warfare the advantage lies with entrenched defence. Crucially, Russia is stronger in the skies. Hence the constant Ukrainian insistence on the need for more air defence systems – and F-16 fighter jets.

In a survey this May, 87% of Ukrainians said they were optimistic about their country’s future, but there’s an increasingly sober mood in private. We were told that as many as one in every five Ukrainian children is now outside the country. Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of Kyiv School of Economics, shared with us its projection that on current trends the workforce would be reduced by as much as a third over the next few years. It’s a daunting challenge to produce the jobs, housing and schools without which millions of Ukrainians will not return from abroad.

So when I say, “Who lost Ukraine?”, I don’t mean losing the war. I mean losing the peace: a country exhausted, ravaged, traumatised, still robbed of some of its territory, a land in limbo. For this is now Putin’s brutal, vengeful objective: if he can’t force Ukraine back into the Russian empire, he will try to ruin it.

Here’s where the buck comes back to the US. Its military support is essential for Ukraine to win the war. Long-term security is essential for Ukraine to win the peace. Without security, there will be little investment, fewer returnees, no successful reconstruction. And that ultimately means Nato membership for Ukraine is critical.

While US military and economic assistance to Ukraine has been massive and indispensable, Europe is now ahead of the US in its strategic stance towards the embattled country. The EU has done what Nato has not: unambiguously committed to Ukrainian membership. As elsewhere in central and eastern Europe since 1989, this is already having a transformative impact on the country’s politics and policies. For everyone in Ukraine now has this big shared goal of “joining Europe”. Non-governmental experts and activists told us they actually wanted tougher EU conditionality, to fight corruption, strengthen the rule of law and improve governance. The EU’s four-year, €50bn support package is framing a domestic agenda of reconstruction and reform.

Europeans are also ahead when it comes to calling for a strong statement from the Vilnius summit on Ukraine’s future Nato membership. And that’s not just the central and eastern Europeans. In what one Kyiv thinktanker called a “magic transformation” of the French position, President Emmanuel Macron has come out strongly in favour. Germany is more hesitant, but Kyiv’s biggest problem is now in Washington.

Ukrainians are realistic. They know they can’t join Nato while there’s a war on. They want what they call a “political invitation”, which would be implemented only when conditions are right. As a bridge to that moment, they seek security commitments from leading Nato powers such as the US, Britain, France and Germany. These are sometimes called “security guarantees”, but as one expert explained, a more accurate description would be “security assistance guarantees”. Those powers would undertake to go on supplying the military means necessary for Ukraine to fight off the aggressor. This would be something like what the US does for Israel, but from multiple partners and with a clear path to eventual Nato membership.

At the time of writing, Biden is still not there. On Sunday, he told the CNN journalist Fareed Zakaria that Ukraine was not ready for Nato membership and that Israel-style security arrangements should be available “if there is a ceasefire, if there is a peace agreement”. He emphasised the word “if”. Cross-checking this with public and private statements by senior US officials, one detects a rather hard-nosed stance. Nato membership is to be deployed as a future reward for Ukraine negotiating the best peace it can get, probably accepting some significant loss of territory.

If this were to be the outcome of the Vilnius summit, there would be massive disappointment in Ukraine. (The morally dubious gift of American cluster bombs is no substitute for long-term security commitments, and only confuses the debate.) We already heard indications in Kyiv of growing anger against the west. Left to fight on alone for another 500 days, without a firm promise of future security, even the bravest of the brave would find it difficult to rebuild their battered, exhausted, traumatised country.

But if the west gives Ukraine the military means to win this war, adding a firm promise of future Nato membership when it’s over, then the US will end up with a Europe much more capable of defending itself against a weakened Russia. The US will then be able to devote more of its own resources to the geostrategic threat from China.

The final decision will only be taken this week, over the leaders’ table in Vilnius. Come on, Mr President, do the right, the bold, the truly strategic thing. History is watching you.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Nel is one of Europe’s largest manufacturers of electrolyzers for hydrogen production, and its Michigan gigafactory will be one of the largest in the world. | Trond R. Teigen/AP Photo

Biden’s hydrogen bombshell leaves Europe in the dust

The EU is investing billions into becoming a green energy superpower. But Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act means it’s the U.S. reaping the rewards.

POLITICO.COM By GABRIEL GAVIN and BEN LEFEBVRE, July 7, 2023 

European leaders have devoted tens of billions of dollars toward encouraging production of hydrogen, a clean-burning fuel that advocates say will create jobs and help fight climate change.

But now, many of those jobs will be going to the United States instead.

The clean energy subsidies that undergird President Joe Biden’s climate agenda have just prompted one Norwegian manufacturer to choose Michigan, not Europe, as the site of a nearly $500 million factory that will produce the equipment needed to extract hydrogen from water. And other European-based companies are being tempted to follow suit, people involved in the continent’s hydrogen efforts say — making the universe’s most abundant substance the latest focus of the transatlantic trade battle on green energy.

The Norwegian firm, Nel, announced its decision in May, nine months after Congress approved Biden’s flagship climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act. The move takes 500 new jobs to the other side of the Atlantic, despite the European Union’s efforts to position itself as the obvious place for clean tech investment.

Gas grab riles Europeans

“There’s not one single driver behind the decision to put it in the U.S.,” Nel CEO Håkon Volldal told POLITICO, pointing to the benefit of being close to customers and partners like General Motors, as well as the financial benefits of the IRA, the Biden-era CHIPS and Science Act that provides funding for technology development, and Michigan’s own grants for green tech.

“If you take the IRA and the CHIPS Act together, we’re talking about more than $400 billion,” Volldal said. “On top of that, you have subsidies for renewable power and so on. Europe is dwarfed by the numbers we see in the U.S.”

The global hydrogen industry was valued at more than $155 billion last year, and the EU plans to produce and import a total of 20 million tons of renewable hydrogen a year by 2030. Supporters say this will help replace natural gas, powering vehicles and generating electricity.

Now, though, the U.S. has its sights set on overtaking Europe when it comes to both hydrogen and the electrolyzers that extract it. The IRA introduced a $3-per-kilogram subsidy for green hydrogen and tens of billions of dollars in loans and other incentives for international investors to put money into the industry.

“A year ago, the EU clearly had the yellow jersey,” Volldal said, referring to the garment that the fastest cyclist wears in the Tour de France. “Now the U.S. has it.”

Jorgo Chatzimarkakis agrees. As the CEO of Hydrogen Europe, he’s one of the continent’s most influential lobbyists, having helped secure industry handouts worth billions of dollars. “We have a very robust framework in the EU, but we fail to attract our own companies because it’s all too complex,” he said. “We have ambitious targets, but we don’t have simple and efficient instruments to incentivize businesses.

“In their typical bureaucratic way, the Europeans will kill this business,” Chatzimarkakis said.

That leaves those who’ve helped launch the industry at risk of losing out, Chatzimarkakis added.

“Dung beetles spend hours rolling up balls of dung to attract females,” he said. “But there are some very smart dung beetles that just sit by the side and watch while others do hard work. Then they shoot in, take the dung ball, take the girl and run away with everything. That’s Joe Biden.”

Revving up subsidies in Michigan

Michigan wants to cement its growing reputation as a home for the hydrogen industry, hoping that the U.S. Department of Energy will designate it as one of four hydrogen development hubs in the country. That would make it eligible for even more money in the form of federal grants.

Luring Nel is a major early coup. The company is one of Europe’s largest manufacturers of electrolyzers for hydrogen production, and its Michigan gigafactory will be one of the largest in the world.

“Hydrogen is one of the fuels for the future,” Rep. Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat who has worked with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to bring in green investment, said in an interview. “We want to locate all kinds of different alternative technologies here.”

The White House has spent months responding to European criticism that its landmark energy policy is unfairly stealing business from U.S. allies on the continent. The administration counters that flooding the market with U.S. government funding is increasing the odds of success for companies on both sides of the Atlantic.

The IRA “benefits both the United States and our partners and allies, contributing to the advancement of the clean energy sector globally and presenting significant opportunities for our partners,” a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said in a statement. “We continue to listen to our partners’ perspectives ... and are turning the IRA into a source of economic growth and partnership.”

The spokesperson was granted anonymity to comment candidly on diplomatic relations.

The scale of the competition is now becoming clear. A senior European Commission official who has worked closely on the bloc’s hydrogen industry incentives policy, granted anonymity to speak openly, acknowledged that Michigan and other U.S. states are becoming an attractive prospect for firms. “The IRA has a tool we don’t have — tax credits.”

In Europe, the official added, businesses have to go through a “tendering process” in which government agencies assess companies’ proposals on their merits, with separate pots of money available for national and EU-level funds. But to get U.S. subsidies, “they just have to meet certain requirements. That’s attractive for industry.”

However, the official insisted Brussels isn’t worried about losing jobs to the U.S. just yet. The EU is making €800 million in funding available for a pilot auction under its Hydrogen Bank scheme to help subsidize the cost of producing the gas, while a range of other incentives exists to kickstart the industry and more are still being planned, the official said. “If the market is here, people will be here.”

America first

Mona Dajani, global head of the renewable energy deals at the law firm Shearman and Sterling, said that after the passage of the IRA, countries from Europe, Asia and the Middle East are investing in clean energy projects in the U.S. at a rate she’s not seen in her 25 years in the practice.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Image by Germán & Co

New power lines take a decade to build because of red tape, complains National Grid

Energy company blasts Britain’s planning rules amid ongoing row over delays

The Telegraph By Gareth Corfield,  July 11, 2023 

The boss of National Grid has complained that it takes a decade to build a new power line in an attack on planning red tape.

John Pettigrew, the company’s chief executive, said that Britain’s planning rules add seven years of delays to the construction time for cables.

His warning comes amid ongoing rows over delays in connecting new wind and solar farms to the UK’s electricity grid, which are threatening the Government’s target of making the network carbon neutral by 2035.

Speaking to shareholders at National Grid’s annual meeting, Mr Pettigrew said: “Typically, to build a transmission line in the UK it takes about 10 years.

“Seven of it is in the planning process and three in construction.”

Fierce rows have raged over delays to grid connections, with some renewable energy developers complaining that they have been pushed to the back of the queue until the 2030s.

National Grid itself is responsible for managing the waiting list of projects, but says it is forced to deliver them on a first come, first served basis that leaves legitimate schemes stuck in limbo behind others that are highly speculative and unlikely to ever be built.

Energy watchdog Ofgem’s chief executive has accused National Grid of presiding over “unacceptable” delays and threatened to strip the company of its role in the planning process.

The company, meanwhile, argues that the first come, first served rules are the problem and has called for reform. In February, National Grid told The Telegraph that it had a backlog of 600 requests to connect, even though around 70pc of such applications ultimately come to nothing.

Mr Pettigrew said on Monday: “The reason there’s a delay is those at the front of the queue, even if they have no intention of developing, actually hold up those people who are behind.

“We need a new regulatory framework to accelerate the ability for people who have genuinely got projects they want to get onto the system to the front of the queue.”

The one-time state monopoly’s boss added that there are “about three times more generation [companies] wanting to connect to the system than is actually needed to meet any of the net zero targets that have been set”.

Current plans require Britain to have up to 248 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity by 2035, more than double today’s 104GW, as heating and cars go electric.

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Image by Germán & via Shutterstock

The Flawed Moral Logic of Sending Cluster Munitions to Ukraine

The New York Times By *The Editorial Board, July 10, 2023

*The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

In the brutal logic of warfare, cluster munitions may appear to make solid sense for Ukraine’s slow-moving counteroffensive against well-dug-in Russian troops. Delivered by artillery, a 155-millimeter shell packed with 72 armor-piercing, soldier-killing bomblets can strike from 20 miles away and scatter them over a vast area.

On Friday, the Biden administration announced it would start delivering these weapons to Ukraine, over objections from, among others, human rights organizations and key allies. President Biden said the United States would supply cluster munitions from its large stockpile until suppliers could catch up with Ukraine’s shortage of conventional artillery shells, a key weapon in the static warfare in eastern and southern Ukraine.

With Ukraine using up ordinary artillery shells at a huge rate (the United States alone has sent more than two million rounds to Ukraine), the cluster munitions, of which the United States has a bountiful supply, could give Ukrainian forces an advantage in prying the Russians from their trenches and fortifications along the 620-mile-long front. Besides, Russia has been using its own cluster munitions, as has Ukraine, from the outset of the war, and Ukraine’s leaders have been urgently asking for more.

This is a flawed and troubling logic. In the face of the widespread global condemnation of cluster munitions and the danger they pose to civilians long after the fighting is over, this is not a weapon that a nation with the power and influence of the United States should be spreading.

However compelling it may be to use any available weapon to protect one’s homeland, nations in the rules-based international order have increasingly sought to draw a red line against use of weapons of mass destruction or weapons that pose a severe and lingering risk to noncombatants. Cluster munitions clearly fall into the second category.

The reason is that not all bomblets explode as they’re meant to, and thousands of small, unexploded grenades can lie around for years, even decades, before somebody — often, a child spotting a brightly colored, battery-size doodad on the ground — accidentally sets it off. The weapons used today by Russia and Ukraine are said to leave as many as 40 percent duds lying around, and they will remain a threat to the people of Ukraine, no matter the outcome of this conflict.

This danger prompted the adoption of a Convention on Cluster Munitions in 2008. The United Nations secretary general at the time, Ban Ki-moon, spoke of “not only the world’s collective revulsion at these abhorrent weapons but also the power of collaboration among governments, civil society and the United Nations to change attitudes and policies on a threat faced by all humankind.” As of today, 123 nations — including many of America’s allies — have agreed never to use, transfer, produce or stockpile cluster munitions.

But not Russia or Ukraine or the United States, which used cluster munitions in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, the United States actively opposed the treaty. This editorial board argued at the time: “As the main holdout, the United States gives cover to countries like Russia and China, which also rejected the ban. The treaty is weaker for it: Together, these three nations have more than a billion cluster munitions stockpiled, far more than the number of weapons expected to be destroyed.”

Defending the decision to supply the weapons to Ukraine, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, argued that Ukraine would not be using the munitions in a foreign land but on its own territory. “These are their citizens they’re protecting, and they are motivated to use any weapon system they have in a way that minimizes the risk to these citizens,” he said.

In fact, there is considerable risk. Cluster munitions used by both Ukrainian and Russian forces have led to, reportedly, at least dozens of civilian deaths and serious injuries, according to a Human Rights Watch report published Thursday. Specifically, the report said Ukrainian cluster-munition rocket attacks on Russian-controlled areas around the city of Izium in 2022 “caused many casualties among Ukrainian civilians.” (Ukraine denied that cluster munitions were used there.)

While it is Ukraine’s decision to choose what weapons it uses in its defense, it is for America to decide which weapons to supply. At the outset of the conflict, the United States resisted sending advanced weapons for fear of encouraging a wider war and Russian retaliation. But as the fighting dragged on and Ukraine proved increasingly capable of standing up to Russia, line after line has been crossed, with Washington and its allies agreeing to provide sophisticated weapons like the Patriot air-defense system, the HIMARS long-range rocket launcher, the Abrams tank and soon the F-16 jet fighter.

There is a legitimate debate about whether this amounts to the sort of mission creep that marked conflicts in Vietnam or Afghanistan. Sending cluster munitions to Ukraine amounts to a clear escalation of a conflict that has already become far too brutal and destructive. But the greater issue here is sharing a weapon that has been condemned by a majority of the world’s nations, including most of America’s close allies, as morally repugnant for the indiscriminate carnage it can cause long after the combatants have gone.

The Pentagon’s central defense against such proscriptions is that the dud rate of the American weapons — the number of bomblets that do not explode and are left on the battlefield — is down to 2.35 percent, compared with an estimated 40 percent for Russia’s. In 2008 the Pentagon set a limit of 1 percent on cluster munitions, and Congress has since banned the use, production or transfer of weapons over that rate. Even the 2.35 percent rate, an average, may be misleading. As John Ismay reported in The Times on Saturday, the cluster munitions in question may include an older type known to have a failure rate of 14 percent or more. That could leave the land littered with unexploded bombs.

The White House bypassed Congress by invoking a provision of the Foreign Assistance Act that allows the president to disregard arms export restrictions if he deems the aid to be a vital national security interest. Several members of Congress have denounced the export of these weapons and will add an amendment to the annual defense bill that would prohibit export of almost all cluster munitions.

This board has consistently supported the supply of arms to Ukraine by the United States and its allies. Ukraine is battling an invader prepared to use all sorts of weapons, including indiscriminate shelling of civilian targets. It needs and deserves help.

But providing weapons that much of the world justifiably condemns is wrong. The United States had wisely started to move away from the use of cluster munitions. To now disregard the long-term consequences of these weapons would undermine one of the fundamental reasons to support Ukraine: to defend the norms that secure peace and stability in Europe, norms that Russia violated so blatantly. Encouraging the use and proliferation of these weapons could weaken the support of allies who until this point have rallied behind American leadership.

The rain of bomblets may give Ukraine a military advantage in the short term, but it would not be decisive, and it would not outweigh the damage in suffering to civilians in Ukraine, now and likely for generations to come.

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News round-up, July 10, 2023

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Water is a precious resource that we have almost drained...

Water is considered the fundamental source and primordial element that precedes all forms. The philosopher, Thales of Miletus first introduced the concept of —-water's significance—-, suggesting that our understanding of its importance predates our comprehension of chemistry.

"We have a better understanding of the enormity of the cosmos that surpasses our comprehension of the immeasurable depths of the ocean.

In metaphysics, Aristotle emphasizes the significance of water as the primary element essential for preserving life. Water symbolizes:

"Mortality and renewal, purification, the cyclical nature of existence, and eternal recurrence.

Undoubtedly, water is an invaluable and indispensable resource for our sustenance. However, it has consistently been scarce throughout history. Water scarcity and conflict have a consistent correlation, evident in numerous historical contexts. This historical legacy can be traced back to ancient Babylon and has persisted through various conflicts, including the Vietnam War. Moreover, recent events remind us of the difficulties we confront in this matter, such as the dispersal of polluted water from the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe into the sea, prolonged periods of drought, and the escalating temperatures occurring in different parts of the world.

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Most read…

Water is more than a common good

As the ready availability of fresh water becomes increasingly threatened around the world, attention has focused on minimising water use. But that obscures how deeply political the issue of universal access to water is.

Franck Poupeau's Le Monde Diplomatique, July Editions

The South American capital with a week’s worth of water left

Workers have begun drilling wells in the capital to reach the water beneath the ground, while protests have erupted over shortages

The Telegraph By Harriet Barber, 7 July 2023

Five Ways the Bull Market Makes Investors Nervous

Investors can’t stop looking over their shoulders for major risks looming in markets

WSJ By Caitlin McCabe, July 10 , 2023

Putin met Prigozhin in Moscow after Wagner mutiny

Mercenary group ‘ready to continue to fight’ for Russia, Kremlin spokesperson says.

POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, JULY 10, 2023

After Yellen visit, China speaks of ‘rainbows’ but prepares for trade battle

In the complex realm of international relations, China aims to underscore the importance of collaboration and mutual understanding with the United States. Rather than perceiving each other as primary competitors vying for global dominance, China advocates for a different approach, urging the United States to abandon the concept of forming exclusive alliances akin to forming a gang.

TWP By Christian Shepherd, July 10, 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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The Central Arizona Project canal helps serve 80% of the population of Arizona, Peoria, 8 June 2023
Mario Tama 

Water is more than a common good

As the ready availability of fresh water becomes increasingly threatened around the world, attention has focused on minimising water use. But that obscures how deeply political the issue of universal access to water is.

Franck Poupeau's Le Monde Diplomatique, July Editions

Driving through southwestern Arizona under a scorching sun, I was struck by how absurd it is that while the western half of the United States is suffering a prolonged drought, new residential complexes are being built far into the Sonoran desert. The dusty plains of Pima County around Tucson airport are scattered with rundown housing without air conditioning and sometimes even running water. Yet just a few kilometres away there are luxury villas with valley views, surrounded by hundred-year-old cacti and elaborate desert gardens with artfully placed rocks, designed to comply with official injunctions not to waste water.

To support this urban sprawl and the economic benefits it brings, a canal diverts water from the Colorado river. Opened in 1993, the Central Arizona Project, 541km long and averaging seven metres wide, with 14 pumping plants and dozens of sluice gates, carries 85 cubic metres per second.

Pima County, which lives above its means in terms of water, is pursuing various environmental initiatives. The Santa Cruz river, which had been dry for decades because of excessive pumping from aquifers and waterways (for cattle ranching, agroindustry, cotton growing, mining and urban growth), is flowing again, with reclaimed wastewater from Tucson. It doesn’t quite amount to an ecological restoration project, which would entail re-establishing a fully functional water cycle and self-regulating ecosystem, but it highlights a key feature of our relationship with natural resources today, even when we have the best environmental intentions. Access to water depends on massive technological infrastructure (1) – in this case, water treatment plants (which use chemicals) and pipelines to carry the reclaimed water to the Santa Cruz. Commentary on water conflicts often overlooks this simple fact in favour of a broad and (apparently) generous idea that water should be considered a common good essential to life. This would imply a right to water, formalising the obvious link between nature and humanity. Yet nothing could be less natural than access to water and how societies have acquired it.

Move to managing demand

Civil engineer and city planner Bernard Barraqué (2) identifies three periods in the development of Europe’s water industry: the ‘age of quantity’, when civil engineering brought water from distant sources (19th century), the ‘age of quality’, when sanitary engineering and local government became involved (late 19th-early 20th centuries), and lastly the age of ‘integrated and demand-side management and environmental engineering’ (since the late 20th century). In this third age, he writes, the water industry has moved from supply management (expanding availability) to demand management (discouraging use) in which water is treated less as a natural resource than as a service, especially in cities.

Most international institutions have adopted this supply-and-demand model, but the Global Water Partnership (GWP) – a specialist intergovernmental organisation concerned with water resource management – criticises the apparent lack of concern over drought in EU directives, and the virtual absence of measures to encourage cutting back on water use. Although EU management plans call for increasing the water supply, demand management is ‘broadly missing in the current EU architecture’ (3). Which means ordinary citizens need to work even harder to use less water (give up swimming pools, brush their teeth and pee in the shower).

From water infrastructure to supply and demand policies, the problems are the same. Who should pay for the water we use?

But by placing the burden of responsibility on the individual, and depoliticising the issues – the building, ownership and monitoring of the infrastructure required for collective living – these exhortations to use less water actually limit the scope of what can be done.

Water supply and sewage usually depend on networks of pipes. While rejecting unnecessary mega-projects (huge reservoirs, canals to divert water from one region to another etc), we should not forget that even the worthiest environmental initiatives depend on technology, whether it’s reclaiming wastewater, capturing rainwater, restoring waterways or installing permeable paving.

Implementing these initiatives requires a knowledge of hydrology, economics (pricing, provider status, contracts) and especially environmental engineering which takes account of ecosystems. There are many ‘ecosystem infrastructure’ projects being developed (4), especially the eco-neighbourhoods of the global North, which offer alternative and decentralised solutions.

When water shortages cause conflict

In recent years, water policy has become a focus of attention because of recurrent droughts following severe disruption of the hydrosocial cycle (5): high temperatures lead to more evaporation, streams and rivers run dry, and aquifers are slow to replenish, so access to water is no longer guaranteed everywhere, all year round, even in areas not previously considered arid. Across a growing part of France, water agencies expect shortfalls of up to 50% of annual consumption by 2050. Water shortages have given rise to conflict, as between farmers and environmentalists over ‘mega-basins’ (see Is storing water the real answer?, in this issue). But it’s hard to see what can be done when the balance of political power is so unfavourable to reform.

Whether the starting point is water infrastructure or a vision of a common good to be managed through supply and demand policies, the practical problems are the same. Who should pay for the water we use? Who should finance, build and maintain supply networks, and, above all, who should own and control those networks? For years, it was the state: in Asia and Africa, governments often based their authority on water mega-projects such as irrigation canals and flood defences; and from the 19th century the landscape of the American West was shaped by federal investment in huge water and transport projects, and the greening of the desert.

Western governments saw cities as strategic hubs for growing the economies of developing countries, and in the 1980s and 90s pushed them to outsource the running of urban infrastructure to the private sector, so the water industry became part of the great dismantling of public services. Meanwhile, international institutions mobilised private enterprise to develop networks in the global South.

These policies challenged the universal distribution model that had been seen as the best response to the problem of access to water for all. In particular, water management and major engineering projects were considered too costly for the poor of emerging countries. Yet projects in a number of countries of the global South have shown that people who don’t have access to public water services (and therefore have to buy bottled water, have water delivered by tanker or pay for rainwater capture equipment) end up paying more than those living in neighbourhoods connected to the mains (6). Most would be able to help pay for the building of water networks, provided the service really met their needs. This is one of the paradoxes of demand for urban services: even in poor countries, people would rather have better access than free services.

So it’s not enough to argue that the world’s poorest should have access to water simply because they have the right to it. The situation in regions suffering from water stress shows that (setting aside criteria such as fairness and democratic participation) we need to determine whether the supply model established in Europe and the US in the 19th century – urban networks or operators covering a particular area – is still the best answer to growing demand. It could be better to focus on the decentralised solutions that are emerging in the global North, such as eco-neighbourhoods, which for now exist alongside infrastructure supplying relatively wide areas. These residential developments are equipped to treat wastewater on site, capture rainwater and produce sewage sludge to fertilise their vegetable gardens.

However, these practices, though touted by the well-to-do and politicians keen to promote green technology, may actually be undermining the economic viability of the universal distribution model. Promoters of ‘green secessionism’ have been accused of abandoning public services, and therefore solidarity with society’s poorest. Between the power of the water authorities and the might of the multinationals, is it enough to encourage water-saving measures without addressing the financial and political question that underpins the roll-out of water infrastructure for all?

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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People protest against the high levels of chloride and sodium in the drinking water, which were raised due to Uruguay's persistent drought CREDIT: EITAN ABRAMOVICH/AFP

The South American capital with a week’s worth of water left

Workers have begun drilling wells in the capital to reach the water beneath the ground, while protests have erupted over shortages

The Telegraph By Harriet Barber, 7 July 2023

Uruguay’s capital is days away from running out of drinking water amid the nation’s worst drought in 74 years.

The government has told locals in Montevideo, a metropolis of more than 1.3 million people, that they have seven to ten days of drinking water left.

It follows a multi-year drought and high temperatures which have drained the city’s reservoirs. Officials announced that reserves are at 1.8 per cent of their capacity.

The state’s water company has begun drilling wells in the centre of the capital to reach the water beneath the ground, while protests have erupted over shortages.

Uruguay is the only country in Latin America to have achieved quasi-universal access to safe drinking water – meaning almost everyone has easy access to water free from contamination – after enshrining access to water as a fundamental right in a 2005 constitutional amendment.

However, locals have already been forced to turn to bottled water after the state-owned water company, Obras Sanitarias del Estado (OSE), began mixing salty water with fresh water to stretch supplies in June.

A bridge that emerged after 30 years under water of the Santa Lucia river at Paso Severino reservoir CREDIT: Ernesto Ryan

The mixing of salt water has triggered health concerns from vulnerable populations.

“It’s horrible. You can’t drink it,” teacher Adrian Dias told Reuters. “My wife has hypertension, so it’s impossible for her to drink this water for the amount of salt it has.”

Although the health minister said the mixed water was not a risk to most people, she advised people with hypertension and kidney disease, as well as those who are pregnant, to limit or avoid tap water completely.

Many residents in Montevideo and the surrounding area cannot afford to buy bottled water, and have been forced to keep drinking from the taps.

Anger over water shortages has incited multiple protests on the streets of Montevideo.

“There’s water, but it’s in private hands,” reads a banner hanging outside the offices of OSE, in Montevideo.

People take part in a protest called by Uruguay's Central Union in "defense of water" CREDIT: EITAN ABRAMOVICH/AFP

Federico Kreimerman, an OSE union leader, said agribusiness was partially to blame for Uruguay’s water woes, explaining water from the Santa Lucia River is syphoned off to private reservoirs for irrigation.

“The share of water for human consumption is tiny,” Mr Kreimerman told Reuters news agency. “Agribusiness entrepreneurs dam the river and use it for themselves.”

Redes-Amigos de la Tierra, an environmental protection group, also blamed the situation on “plundering” factories, rice-growing companies and soy farmers.

“Almost 80 per cent of our freshwater goes to the agricultural and forestry sector, so we can certainly say water resource exploitation is very high in Uruguay,” biologist and environmental expert Mariana Meerhoff told DW, a German media outlet.

“Because so much water is used in industry, the amount for water for personal use and nature is obviously very limited.”

Production has been paused in some of the city’s factories. The Frigorífico Canelones meatpacking company sent 700 workers to collect unemployment insurance when it halted production this week, according to the Buenos Aires Herald.

The dry lakebed of the Canelon Grande dam that normally provides drinking water for the capital CREDIT: Matilde Campodonico/AP

Climate change is exacerbating both water scarcity and water-related hazards, such as floods and droughts, in countries around the world. Neighbouring Argentina is also grappling with its worst drought in decades, which is having a severe impact on farming.

In June, Uruguay’s government declared a water emergency, exempting taxes on bottled water and ordering the construction of a new reservoir.

President Luis Lacalle Pou insisted his government was “hurrying all the works and trying to continue looking for alternative sources” of water.

The government is also distributing drinking water to vulnerable groups like schools, nursing homes and hospitals, said Gerardo Amarilla, undersecretary at Uruguay’s environment ministry.

At Canelon Grande Reservoir, a major water source for Montevideo, water levels have been so low that grass now covers what was once a lake.

“It’s bleak,” local Mario del Pino said, standing in the middle of the reservoir, surrounded by weeds and cracked dirt. “Water used to cover everything you can see.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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ILLUSTRATION BY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL/ Editing by Germán & Co

Five Ways the Bull Market Makes Investors Nervous

Investors can’t stop looking over their shoulders for major risks looming in markets

WSJ By Caitlin McCabe, July 10 , 2023

A familiar question has crept back onto Wall Street: Could this be the most-hated bull market ever?

The S&P 500 charged into bull-market territory in the first six months of 2023, marking a 20% rally from a recent low, yet investors say they can’t stop looking over their shoulders. Even after U.S. stocks overcame big risks—including repeated interest-rate hikes and a banking crisis—money managers say they aren’t convinced this rally is sustainable.

History shows that investors don’t tend to love bull markets when they are in them. Traders grumbled about the 11-year bull run born out of the financial crisis. So far this time, investor anxieties have been largely suppressed. Yet a drop in stocks and surge in bond yields last week after a round of strong economic data show how brittle the current bull market may be.

Investors say they are monitoring worrisome trends in the market. Here are five that are on their minds:

1. Earnings Season Could Reveal Hidden Weakness

S&P 500 companies' net profit margin

Source: FactSetNote: Q2 2023 is a blend of reported results and analyst forecasts.

Earnings season kicks off in earnest this week. Some investors are warning it could be bumpy.

Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report a 7.2% decline in earnings for the second quarter, FactSet data show, marking what would be the third consecutive year-over-year earnings decline.

Investors are on the lookout for whether corporate pricing power is ebbing. The net profit margin of companies in the S&P 500 is expected to fall to 11.4%, down slightly from the previous quarter and notably lower than the 13% peak reached in 2021. Companies might find themselves squeezed at both ends, investors say, as they face rising financing costs while also struggling to raise prices further as inflation ebbs.

“The market is pricing in a very angelic scenario [for earnings], and we are very reluctant to buy into that,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. His team has started trimming exposure to stocks in the firm’s flagship multiasset portfolio, he said, while also keeping 25% of it in cash.

2. The Yield Curve Inversion Is Deepening 

10-year U.S. Treasury yield minus two-year yield

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A year ago, the U.S. bond market began consistently flashing a recession signal. Lately, the warning has been getting louder.

Part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been persistently inverted since last July, when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped below that of its two-year counterpart. Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped to 1.08 percentage point below that of the two-year yield—the widest negative gap since 1981. 

Investors look to the U.S. Treasury yield curve as a gauge of economic health. When the curve inverts, that means bond traders are betting the Federal Reserve will keep rates high in the near term to fight inflation but will then need to cut them later to resuscitate the economy.

Some investors are betting the yield curve will trump more positive signs about growth, including recent data showing continuing resiliency in the labor market.

3. Global Markets Look Cloudy, Too 

Performance of global indexes, year-to-date

Source: FactSet

Markets outside the U.S. started 2023 on a positive note. China had just lifted its Covid-19 restrictions, stirring optimism that a flurry of spending from Chinese consumers would unleash economic growth at home and abroad. Asian stock indexes initially soared, as did those in Europe.

Since then, excitement has faded. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the red for the year, while the Shanghai Composite has gained just 3.5%. Europe’s pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 is up only slightly more—5.4% for the year—and on Thursday suffered its largest decline since March.

Fading optimism has been driven by darkened economic outlooks. The eurozone has slid into a recession, and investors continue to worry about the impact of the war in Ukraine and inflation that remains more stubborn compared with the U.S. China’s era of rapid growth, meanwhile, seems to be over, felled in part by its troubled property market, mounting debt burden and high youth unemployment. 

4. Trouble From Higher Rates Keeps Bubbling 

Response from market professionals when asked if higher rates will cause more accidents in​global markets

Source: Deutsche Bank Research Note: Based on survey of 400 global participants conducted June 27-29.

Accidents will continue and​cause some market stressAccidents will be quickly​contained, with limited​market impactBigger accidents are coming,​with serious financial stressUnlikely there will be any​more big accidents0%102030405060

Even the seemingly safest areas of the market are vulnerable to stress when interest rates rise. 

The first warning shot came last fall, when rising rates sparked turmoil in U.K. bond and currency markets. Then came Silicon Valley Bank, whose collapse was sparked in part by a disclosure that the bank had booked a $1.8 billion loss on its bond portfolio due to rising rates. Even British utility Thames Water has recently come under stress, as it grapples with a large debt load and rising debt-service costs.

Many investors say they are nervous about what could break next. A June Deutsche Bank survey of market professionals showed that nearly all of its 400 respondents expect higher rates to cause more global accidents. Some 18% of them believe the strains will be significant, causing “serious financial stress.”

5. U.S. Stock Positioning Looks Stretched

Average investor positioning levels in U.S. stocks, five-day rolling average

Source: JPMorgan Data Assets & Alpha Group, Positioning IntelligenceNote: Positioning reflects multiple investor types, including hedge funds, retail investors, mutual funds, and in​the options market. A value of '0' marks the average over the last eight years.

After sitting on the sidelines at the start of this year, asset managers, hedge funds and individual investors have picked up buying activity, joining quant funds.

Together, that buying has pushed their U.S. stock market positioning to its highest level in nearly 18 months, according to an estimate from JPMorgan Chase. Positioning in some parts of the tech sector, namely software and semiconductor companies, looks particularly stretched, said Eloise Goulder, head of the data assets and alpha group at the bank.

This crowded positioning has stirred worries that U.S. stocks could be vulnerable to a rapid reversal. Eight stocks in the S&P 500—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla and Nvidia—now account for 30% of the index’s market capitalization, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Tech’s influence, combined with crowded positioning, could magnify moves in the market if sentiment shifts and investors try to simultaneously exit positions.

FOMO, or fear of missing out, “is in full swing,” JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka said in a recent note. 

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Yevgeny Prigozhin shows Vladimir Putin his school lunch factory outside Saint Petersburg in 2010 | Alexey Druzhinin/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

Putin met Prigozhin in Moscow after Wagner mutiny

Mercenary group ‘ready to continue to fight’ for Russia, Kremlin spokesperson says.

POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, JULY 10, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in the Kremlin after the paramilitary group’s aborted mutiny last month, according to Russian media reports.

“This meeting took place in the Kremlin on June 29. It lasted almost three hours,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday, according to state-owned newswire Ria Novosti.

Prigozhin rebelled against the Russian military establishment on June 23, seizing the city of Rostov-on-Don the next morning and sending his Wagner Group mercenaries on a march to Moscow. The mutinous warlord only turned his tanks around as they came within 200 kilometers of the Russian capital and threatened to tip the country into civil war.

Thirty-five people were invited to attend the high-stakes Moscow meeting, including “all the commanders of the military detachments” and Prigozhin, Peskov said.

During the meeting in the Kremlin, Putin “gave an assessment of the company’s actions” on the front line in Ukraine and of “the events of [the rebellion on] June 24,” the spokesperson said.

The Wagner commanders were then offered “further options for employment and further combat use,” Peskov said, adding that the paramilitaries said they were “ready to continue to fight” for Russia.

“Putin listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them further options for employment and further combat use,” Peskov added.

After the mutiny was aborted following talks between Prigozhin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who negotiated a climbdown from the mercenaries, the Wagner leader was supposed to be exiled to Belarus.

He has not, however, been seen in public since. Lukashenko initially confirmed that Prigozhin had popped up in Belarus, before later saying that he wasn’t actually there — and could even be in Russia.

Usually very active on social media, oligarch-turned warlord Prigozhin has been discreet since the mutiny ended — only appearing a couple times on Telegram.

Wagner troops have been involved in some of the bloodiest fighting in Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including in the city of Bakhmut which was battered for months by invading Russian forces during the winter and spring.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing on Saturday. (Mark Schiefelbein/Pool/AP) / Editing by Germán & Co

After Yellen visit, China speaks of ‘rainbows’ but prepares for trade battle

In the complex realm of international relations, China aims to underscore the importance of collaboration and mutual understanding with the United States. Rather than perceiving each other as primary competitors vying for global dominance, China advocates for a different approach, urging the United States to abandon the concept of forming exclusive alliances akin to forming a gang.

TWP By Christian Shepherd, July 10, 2023 

BEIJING — China hailed the absence of major contention during the visit to Beijing by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen as progress toward easing long-standing tensions, even as it continues to prepare for a protracted standoff with the United States over critical technologies.

In a statement released Monday, the Finance Ministry called discussions over Yellen’s four-day visit “frank, pragmatic, in-depth and constructive” while giving China an opportunity to clarify its position on what constitutes “healthy economic competition.”

But Chinese scholars and policy advisers have also underscored that serious disagreement remains over the ground rules for the trade relationship. They said that Beijing is unwilling to accept the terms of economic engagement being offered and will continue to strike back at what it sees as unfair trade restrictions imposed by Washington.

Yellen hails modest gains in economic talks with Chinese leaders

Tensions remain in part because China is strongly opposed to even limited trade restrictions on sensitive technologies, especially when American allies and partners are involved, said Lu Feng, an economist at Peking University.

“China wants to convince the United States that working together requires not viewing us as a primary competitor or gathering your friends to form a gang,” he said.

On Friday, Premier Li Qiang — the face of China’s efforts to attract foreign businesses and revive a sluggish economy — spoke of “rainbows” after the storm when receiving Yellen in the Great Hall of the People, before warning against “total politicization and securitization” of the economic relationship and urging that the United States see China’s development as a “plus not a risk.”

Unlike past engagement with the United States, talks now are less about expanding the relationship and more about “recalibrating” within the United States’ framework of great power competition, said Sun Chenghao, a research fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.

Beijing’s dislike of that framing makes it more likely to drive a hard bargain. “China will more often conduct exchanges based on its own interests where benefits for each side are reciprocal, rather than going along with requests for cooperation from the United States,” he said.

U.S. and European policymakers are increasingly talking about “de-risking” to broaden economic supply lines, lessen dependence on the Chinese economy and reduce Chinese access to advanced technologies with military applications — a distinction from “decoupling” that Beijing does not buy.

For China, de-risking is little better than earlier threats of “decoupling” because the meaningful content is the same, said Shen Yamei, director of American Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank under the Foreign Ministry.

“The U.S. interpretation of de-risking is actually de-Sinification, which is to say that it means excluding China,” she said.

U.S. and Chinese flags before Yellen's meeting in Beijing on Saturday. (Mark Schiefelbein/Pool/Reuters)

Yet even as it criticizes de-risking, China is engaging in a series of measures to confront the U.S. economy, including lessening its dependence on American manufacturers.

Days before Yellen was due to touch down, the government announced export controls on metals primarily found in China that are critical for the manufacture of microchips and fiber optic cables — Beijing’s first official “rare earth” restrictions since an export control law was passed in 2020.

The announcement was part of a years-long effort to become better equipped to stare down the United States in a trade and technology war that began under the Trump administration and, from Beijing’s perspective, continued — at lower volume — under President Biden.

Unlike during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit last month, Yellen did not meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who spent the day of her arrival visiting the Eastern Theater Command, the branch of the military in charge of enforcing Beijing’s claims over self-governed Taiwan.

Underscoring the importance Xi places on building indigenous advanced manufacturing capabilities, he also visited HYC Technologies, a tester of machinery used for semiconductors and electric vehicles, as part of his tour of Jiangsu province.

Beijing has long used its economic heft as leverage in geopolitical standoffs, including temporary restrictions on rare earth metal exports to Japan in 2010. But more recently, the Chinese government has rapidly expanded a framework of laws and regulations that Chinese experts tout as a means to fight back should the tentative détente fail.

China’s export controls were a countermeasure to “unbearable bullying” from the United States, Chen Fengying, a researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a think tank under the Ministry of State Security, told state-run media.

Before Yellen arrived, Chinese officials made exacting demands for substantial shifts in U.S. trade policy, including canceling plans to add new tariffs on imports and reversing a Trump-era intellectual property investigation’s ruling that underpins existing ones.

The export controls come on top of a string of actions that have spooked the international business community. Authorities raided American firms Mintz and Bain, and Chinese police publicly named and shamed expert network Capvision, a Chinese company with offices in New York and a large number of international clients, over alleged spying.

Revisions to Chinese counterespionage laws that came into effect on July 1 have heightened the United States’ concerns about national security impinging on business interests — fears intensified by the growing use of exit bans to prevent foreigners and Chinese alike from leaving.

China’s national security ban on sales of U.S.-made Micron memory chips to Chinese entities involved in key infrastructure has also been interpreted as a sign that long-running efforts to curb dependence on American-sourced components are accelerating.

If an American company in China works on areas deemed sensitive and critical for the country’s future development, “you can start planning your exit strategy,” said one Beijing-based executive who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “It’s a question of when, not if.”

News that the United States had updated its travel advisory for China to urging U.S. citizens to reconsider travel to the country over concerns about arbitrary enforcement of local laws also sparked an angry response last week. China’s Foreign Ministry called it “gratuitous political manipulation.”

For some Chinese scholars, American concern over China’s evolving national security legislation is just another sign that there is no immediate end in sight to the tensions.

“China asks the United States to understand how its legal system is built but doesn’t expect complete acceptance,” said Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University. “Going forward, China-U.S. contestation will continue to be very intense.”

News round-up, July 7, 2023

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Editorial…

Why do the monetary authorities refuse to recognize that we are —or very close— in a deep economic crisis, perhaps one of the worst in history?

The New York Times, in the October 20, 2023 edition, published the following article: “A Warning for the World Economy: "The Worst Is Yet to Come" The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth outlook for 2023 and has suggested that interest rate increases could trigger a severe global recession. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the global economy was facing challenging times ahead. The IMF downgraded its projections for global growth for the upcoming year and cautioned that a severe global recession could occur if policymakers mishandled the battle against inflation. The grim assessment was detailed in the fund's closely watched World Economic Outlook report, which was published as the world's top economic officials traveled to Washington for the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF. The gathering arrives at a critical time, as ongoing supply chain disruptions and Russia's conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a significant increase in energy and food prices in the past year. As a result, central bankers have been compelled to raise interest rates significantly in order to stabilize their economies and mitigate inflationary pressures. Raising borrowing costs will likely curb inflation by reducing business investment and consumer spending. Still, higher interest rates could also lead to a new set of problems: a series of recessions in wealthy nations and debt crises in poorer ones…

Everything points today at to the International Monetary Fund's economic prognosis being fulfilled.

Today the media outlets worldwide focus on the stock market's "unfavorable" performance and the predictions of an upcoming financial crisis. This morning, “The Telegraph U.K.” reported that the stock market had experienced a significant decline due to concerns about possible interest rate increases. As a result, borrowing costs have risen to their highest level in 15 years. This drop is a result of a worldwide "sell-off" triggered by high inflation... On Thursday, the stock market experienced a sharp decline, causing government borrowing costs to soar to their highest level since 2008. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 index reached its lowest point this year, while gilts climbed to their highest level in over a decade. This market behavior was driven by investors speculating that the Bank of England would raise interest rates to 6.5% by the beginning of next year.

Furthermore, unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs data has raised concerns about potential price increases across the Atlantic, further exacerbating the situation. The FTSE 100 index fell by 2.17% due to worries that higher interest rates would have a negative impact on company investments and consumer demand. Paris markets closed with a 3.13% decline, and shares fell by 2.57% in Germany. On Wall Street, the S& P 500 index experienced a 0.8% decline. HSBC, one of the largest mortgage lenders in Britain, announced on Thursday evening that it would be withdrawing all deals offered to new customers through brokers for the third time in a month. This decision burdens borrowers more, as the bank plans to reintroduce these deals with higher interest rates on Monday. The market turmoil has also led to a significant increase in the Treasury's borrowing costs.

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Most read…

Is China really leading the clean energy revolution? Not exactly

The country generates more solar energy than all other countries combined, but burns half the planet’s coal. There are lessons here for the rest of us, though

The Guardian by *Li Shuo, July 6, 2023 

‘Revolutionary’ solar power cell innovations break key energy threshold

Next generation cells surpass limits of today’s cells and will accelerate rollout of cheaper, more efficient solar power

The Guardian by Damian Carrington Environment editor, July 7, 2023

Stock market falls sharply amid fears of further interest rate rises

Borrowing costs soar to 15-year high amid global sell-off triggered by rampant inflation

The Telegraph By Szu Ping Chan and Adam Mawardi, July 6,  2023 

EXCLUSIVE: “Inside the subsea cable firm secretly helping America take on China…

SubCom, a New Jersey company born out of a Cold War spy project, has become a key player in the U.S.-China tech war. It’s laying internet cables on the ocean floor to boost Washington’s economic and military might, including a clandestine mission to a remote island naval base, Reuters can reveal.

REUTERS By JOE BROCK, July 6, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Image by Germán & Co

‘Revolutionary’ solar power cell innovations break key energy threshold

Next generation cells surpass limits of today’s cells and will accelerate rollout of cheaper, more efficient solar power

The Guardian by Damian Carrington Environment editor, July 7, 2023

Solar power cells have raced past the key milestone of 30% energy efficiency, after innovations by multiple research groups around the world. The feat makes this a “revolutionary” year, according to one expert, and could accelerate the rollout of solar power.

Today’s solar panels use silicon-based cells but are rapidly approaching their maximum conversion of sunlight to electricity of 29%. At the same time, the installation rate of solar power needs to increase tenfold in order to tackle the climate crisis, according to scientists.

The breakthrough is adding a layer of perovskite, another semiconductor, on top of the silicon layer. This captures blue light from the visible spectrum, while the silicon captures red light, boosting the total light captured overall. With more energy absorbed per cell, the cost of solar electricity is even cheaper, and deployment can proceed faster to help keep global heating under control.

The perovskite-silicon “tandem” cells have been under research for about a decade, but recent technical improvements have now pushed them past the 30% milestone. Experts said that if the scaling-up of production of the tandem cells proceeds smoothly, they could be commercially available within five years, about the same time silicon-only cells reach their maximum efficiency.

Two groups published the details of their efficiency breakthroughs in the journal Science on Thursday, and at least two others are known to have pushed well beyond 30%.

“This year is a revolutionary year,” said Prof Stefaan De Wolf, at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia. “It’s very exciting that things are moving rapidly with multiple groups.”

The current efficiency record for silicon-only solar cells is 24.5% in commercial cells and 27% in the laboratory. The latter may well be as close the cells can practically get to the theoretical maximum of 29%.

But one group, led by Prof Steve Albrecht at the Helmholtz Center Berlin for Materials and Energy in Germany, has now published information about how they achieved efficiencies of up to 32.5% for silicon-perovskite cells. The other group, led by Dr Xin Yu Chin at the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, Switzerland, demonstrated an efficiency of 31.25% and said tandem cells had the “potential for both high efficiency and low manufacturing costs”.

“What these two groups have shown are really milestones,” said De Wolf. His own group achieved 33.7% efficiency with a tandem cell in June, but has yet to publish the results in a journal. All the efficiency measurements were independently verified.

“Overcoming the 30% threshold provides confidence that high performance, low-cost PVs can be brought to the market,” said De Wolf. Global solar power capacity reached 1.2 terawatts (TW) in 2022. “Yet to avert the catastrophic scenarios associated with global warming, the total capacity needs to increase to about 75TW by 2050,” he said.

The solar industry is also part of the race to high efficiency. Chinese company LONGi, the world’s biggest producer of solar cells, announced in June they had reached 33.5% in their research. “Reducing the cost of electricity remains the perpetual theme driving the development of the photovoltaic industry,” said Li Zhenguo, the president of LONGi.

“The industry is running very, very fast,” De Wolf said. “And I’m sure that multiple companies are working on this in China.” Europe and the US need to increase its research and development funding to keep up and contribute to an accelerating roll out of solar power, he said.

A worker produces photovoltaic modules used for solar panels at a factory in China’s eastern Jiangsu province in May 2023. China is one of the leaders in the race to high solar efficiency. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

All of the high-efficiency tandem cells above 30% efficiency are small so far, measuring 1cm by 1cm. They now need to be scaled up to the size of commercial cells, which are 16-cm squares.

The scale-up is already under way with UK company Oxford PV announcing in May a record 28.6% efficiency for a commercial-size cell. “Solar is already one of the least expensive and cleanest forms of energy available, and our technology will make it even more affordable,” said Chris Case, chief technology officer at Oxford PV.

The Oxford PV cell was made on the same production line as conventional silicon-only cells, making the large-scale production of tandem cells far easier. Tandem cells may prove to be more expensive than silicon-only cells, but the cells are only a small part of the cost of producing and installing solar panels, De Wolf said.

One issue that remains to be resolved is how fast the tandem cells degrade over time in real-world conditions. Today’s solar cells still have 80-90% of their capacity after 25 years and De Wolf said tandems would have to match that, but that there was only limited data on their stability to date.

The key to the higher efficiencies of the tandem cells from the German and Swiss groups was tackling tiny defects on the surface of the perovskite layer. These allow some electrons liberated by solar photons to flow back into the perovskite, rather than contributing to the cell’s electrical current and therefore reducing its efficiency.

The solution was to put a layer of organic molecules between the perovskite and the conducting layer through which the current flows, which compensated for the defects.

Significantly, all the groups used different methods to address the problem, giving more options in the search for the best commercial design, said De Wolf. “There’s still lots of room to go further,” he said. “I believe that the practical limit is well beyond 35%.”

Prof Rob Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, said: “Solar is already a low-cost way to generate electricity and has a wide resource base across the world. The cost reductions already achieved are the main reason solar now plays such a large role in scenarios of decarbonised energy systems. Improvements in efficiency have the potential to increase the output of solar and therefore will help to reinforce that effect.”

There are other technologies, such as multi-junction cells, which can have efficiencies as high as 47%, but these are very expensive to produce and would only be suitable for niche uses such as on space satellites or when sunlight is highly concentrated on to the cells.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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A molten salt tower harvests solar power in Jiuquan, north-west China. Photograph: Hu Chengwei/Editing by Germán & Co

Is China really leading the clean energy revolution? Not exactly

The country generates more solar energy than all other countries combined, but burns half the planet’s coal. There are lessons here for the rest of us, though

The Guardian by *Li Shuo, July 6, 2023 

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“Big numbers are a hallmark of China’s economy and now its energy transition: they thrill, they mystify, and at times they contradict, at least on the surface.

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China’s solar capacity is now 228 gigawatts (GW), more than the rest of the world combined, according to Global Energy Monitor. And wind capacity, at a whopping 310GW, also leads the world. With another 750GW of new wind and solar projects in the pipeline, China will hit its 2030 target of 1,200GW – an unimaginable number when proposed just a few years ago – five years early.

Scratching through the big numbers, two issues deserve the world’s deeper understanding. The first is that China’s successful clean technology campaign has more to do with its economic strategy than its climate commitments. The second is that, alongside its impressive achievements in renewable energy, China is also one of the world’s biggest polluters. Neither is likely to change imminently.

The ability to manufacture at scale and quality, and deploy funds competitively, underpins China’s impressive growth of wind and solar, as well as electric vehicles. This is the outcome of an industrial policy that features consistent state support, highly integrated supply chains, cut-throat competition, indigenous innovation and entrepreneurship, and the economies of scale that only a country the size of China can offer. China’s EV manufacturers, for example, have been supplying millions of cars in a fiercely competitive domestic market for years, and have been boosted by government support. In contrast, their western counterparts are only beginning to enjoy a similar market scale at home. They also face stronger resistance from conventional vehicle producers.

This is not to say that the rest of the world is hopeless in the face of an established clean technology giant. But other countries need to do much better in translating cutting-edge technologies into actual manufacturing. Western countries have prided themselves on innovations in the lab for so long. Failing to bring them to the factory floor or to realise that many innovations take place along the assembly line would be a grave mistake.

For China, the good news is that the economic conditions that propelled its rapid clean technology growth are here to stay. Astronomical numbers are the forecast for the foreseeable future. If anything, Chinese solar and electric vehicle manufacturers will become more efficient and supply ever cheaper solutions to reduce carbon emissions nationally and globally.

These opportunities are key points of leverage as the international community tries to appeal for greater climate ambition from China. Climate diplomats coming to Beijing need to help Chinese leaders realise the alignment between their economic agenda and the climate agenda. Global climate conversations in places such as the G20 and Cops will be better served if they incentivise Chinese action based on its strengths.

China’s current and future domination of clean technology also raises important questions for other countries. Can they become more cost-efficient than China? Are they prepared, economically and politically, to risk the bankruptcy and failure suffered by their Chinese counterparts before many of them emerged as industry leaders? What does deglobalisation in the clean energy supply chain mean for the effort of combating climate crisis? For sound policies and a liveable planet, these questions require serious thought by world leaders, but they have so far been overshadowed by geopolitical zeal.

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

Meanwhile, China’s rapid clean energy expansion needs to be read together with its continued expansion of new coal power. More than half of all coal the world consumed over the past decade was consumed in China, and the country’s coal fever shows no sign of waning. Just in the first quarter of 2023, provincial governments in China have already approved at least 20.45GW of new coal projects. Coal combustion is currently projected to increase at a “reasonable speed” into 2030.

While the pro-growth and pro-infrastructure development mentality has boosted China’s clean energy sector, it is exactly the same logic that fuels coal development. Beijing is simultaneously becoming the biggest solution provider and the biggest troublemaker.

But in the current climate crisis, the world cannot afford this trend of renewable energy and coal going head to head with one another. Currently, the percentage of China’s electricity that is generated by wind and solar is expected to grow by less than 1% a year between 2023 and 2030. At this rate, the country may achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030, but is less likely to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, as President Xi Jinping pledged in 2020.

The challenge for China is to maintain its record on clean technology but to shut off the coal pipeline. That will require decisive reforms in its power sector, where many of the rules still favour coal over clean energy sources. Technological solutions such as energy storage could also help the transition in the interim. But ultimately, the country needs to gather the political courage to stop building coal plants and start phasing them out.

As for the rest of the world, global persuasion for China to shift its course on coal is critical. Climate diplomacy won’t be pain free, but it is the only way to tackle the defining global crisis of our times. Countries in the west also need to learn from China, even if there is no simple cut-and-paste solution for them. It is a blessing that a template for success exists. Refusing to learn from each other, in a world where countries are more interested in fighting one another than climate change, would be futile.

*Li Shuo is senior policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Borrowing costs reach highest level since financial crisis, Blomberg / Editing by Germán & Co

Stock market falls sharply amid fears of further interest rate rises

Borrowing costs soar to 15-year high amid global sell-off triggered by rampant inflation

The Telegraph By Szu Ping Chan and Adam Mawardi, July 6,  2023 

The stock market fell sharply and Government borrowing costs soared to a 15-year high on Thursday amid a global sell-off triggered by rampant inflation and rising interest rates.

In Britain, the FTSE 100 fell to its lowest level this year, while gilts climbed to their highest since 2008 as investors bet the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 6.5pc by the start of next year.

Further chaos was caused by unexpectedly strong US jobs data, leading to fears that price rises might also take off across the Atlantic.

The prospect that higher interest rates would hit company investment and consumer demand sent the FTSE 100 down 2.17pc. Paris markets closed down 3.13pc and in Germany, shares fell 2.57pc. The S&P 500 fell 0.8pc on Wall Street.

In a sign of more pain to come for borrowers, HSBC – one of Britain’s biggest mortgage lenders – announced late on Thursday that it was pulling all deals offered to new customers through brokers for the third time in a month. The bank will return to the market on Monday with higher rates.

The chaos also sent the Treasury’s borrowing costs sharply higher.

Two-year gilt yields, which are more sensitive to interest rate bets, rose above 5.5pc to their highest since 2008. Benchmark 10-year borrowing costs almost hit 4.7pc, rising above their highs in the aftermath of then-Prime Minister Lizz Truss’s tax-cutting mini-Budget.

Nearly all stocks on the FTSE 100 sank on Thursday, with Britain’s blue chip index recording its worst one-day drop since the US regional banking crisis sparked a brutal sell-off in March.

The UK’s blue-chip index ended trading at 7,280.50, its lowest point since November 3. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 midcap index finished down 2.59pc at 17,916.46.

It came as US statistics showed that 497,000 new private sector jobs were created last month, more than double analysts’ estimates.

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The strong reading will add to speculation of higher rates, a day after the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting revealed that “almost all” policymakers expected more increases despite agreeing to hold rates last month.

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The Bank of England has already increased rates 13 times to 5pc in an attempt to cool the economy. Lifting them to 6.5pc would take borrowing costs to the highest level since 1998.

Analysts warned that the surge has also left taxpayers on the hook for much bigger losses from Threadneedle Street’s money-printing programme.

”Losses from QT will be greater the higher Bank Rate and yields go,” she said. “These costs should not be underestimated – a reasonable base case could be that together, the cumulative hit between now and end-2026 could be higher than £150bn.”

This would be around 50pc higher than Bank estimates published only in April.

The Bank estimated in its annual report on Thursday that the Treasury would be forced to stump up £191bn if it sold off its entire bond stockpile in one go under an indemnity deal struck during the financial crisis.

This is up from £22bn last year, and reflects the surge in borrowing costs.

A separate report by Moody’s Analytics warned more fixed-rate mortgages in the UK had created a “refinancing time bomb”, while also damping the impact of rate rises.

It said people who fixed their mortgage two years ago faced the most “severe” increases in payments, with a typical borrower now facing a near £500 jump in monthly payments.

“As a share of average incomes, this represents a larger increase than in those periods of the past when interest rates rose,” said David Muir, . More than a million families will refinance in the next 12 months.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Source: REUTERS

Inside the subsea cable firm secretly helping America take on China

SubCom, a New Jersey company born out of a Cold War spy project, has become a key player in the U.S.-China tech war. It’s laying internet cables on the ocean floor to boost Washington’s economic and military might, including a clandestine mission to a remote island naval base, Reuters can reveal.

REUTERS By JOE BROCK, July 6, 2023

On Feb. 10 last year, the cable ship CS Dependable appeared off the coast of the island of Diego Garcia, an Indian Ocean atoll that’s home to a discreet U.S. naval base.

Over the next month, the ship’s crew covertly laid an underwater fiber-optic cable to the military base, an operation code-named “Big Wave,” according to four people with direct knowledge of the mission, as well as a Reuters analysis of satellite imagery and ship tracking data.

The new super-fast internet link to Diego Garcia, which has not previously been reported, will boost U.S. military readiness in the Indian Ocean, a region where China has expanded its naval influence over the last decade.

The CS Dependable is owned by SubCom, a small-town New Jersey cable manufacturer that’s playing an outsized role in a race between the United States and China to control advanced military and digital technologies that could decide which country emerges as the world’s preeminent superpower.

SubCom, a company born out of a U.S. Cold War project to spy on Soviet submarines, is living a double life.

Publicly, it is one of the world’s biggest developers of undersea fiber-optic cables for telecom firms and tech giants like Alphabet’s Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms.

Behind the scenes, SubCom is the exclusive undersea cable contractor to the U.S. military, laying a web of internet and surveillance cables across the ocean floor, according to the four people with knowledge of the matter: two SubCom employees and two U.S. Navy staffers. The individuals asked not to be named because they were not authorized to discuss the operations.

The cable-laying vessel CS Dependable is shown docked at Taiwan’s Port of Taichung on April 18, 2023. The ship’s private-sector owner, New Jersey-based SubCom, is central to Washington’s efforts to deter foreign spying on international internet traffic moving through undersea fiber-optic cables. REUTERS/Ann Wang

This dual role has made SubCom increasingly valuable to Washington as global internet infrastructure – from undersea cables to data centers and 5G mobile networks – risks fracturing into two systems, one backed by the United States, the other controlled by China.

SubCom is owned by Cerberus Capital Management, a New York-based private equity firm that has invested in defense contractors and national security assets. Last year, Cerberus paid $300 million for a Philippine shipyard on a former U.S. Navy base close to the South China Sea, beating out Chinese competitors for control of a strategic site in a region where Beijing has been flexing its military muscle.

Cerberus is headed by Stephen Feinberg, a billionaire political donor whom former President Donald Trump drafted onto the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, which counsels the commander-in-chief on U.S. foreign intelligence matters.

SubCom, Cerberus and Feinberg did not respond to requests for comment.

Presented with Reuters’ findings, a spokesperson for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet confirmed the existence of a new high-speed undersea internet cable to Diego Garcia. It was the first official acknowledgement of that cable.

“The resiliency, redundancy, and security of our communication infrastructure represents a top priority for U.S. Pacific Fleet,” the spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

The statement said the Navy could not discuss specifics for operational security reasons. The Navy did not respond to Reuters’ questions about SubCom or name the company in its statement.

SubCom’s journey from Cold War experiment to global cable constructor and now a shadowy player in the U.S.-China tech war is detailed in this story for the first time.

SubCom is owned by Cerberus Capital Management, a New York private equity firm with investments in defense contractors. Stephen Feinberg, co-founder and co-chief executive of Cerberus, is a billionaire political donor. He was tapped by former U.S. President Donald Trump to serve on a national security advisory board. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration

Reuters is revealing details of the Diego Garcia project and SubCom’s deepening ties with the Pentagon. The news agency is also the first to report on a confidential contract the company secured from tech giant Google to build the world’s largest private undersea internet network.

That partnership is the kind of America Inc project that President Joe Biden has been calling for in his drive to promote U.S. advanced technologies.

Google did not respond to requests for comment.

Undersea cables transmit 99% of all transcontinental internet traffic, including instant messenger chats, stock market transactions and military secrets. This underwater network has become one of the key weapons in the U.S.-China tech war, as detailed in a Reuters investigation published in March. Subsea cables are vulnerable to sabotage and espionage, and Beijing and Washington have accused each other of tapping cables to spy on data or carry out cyberattacks.

SubCom’s increasing importance to the United States can be split into two categories, one military and one economic, according to two subsea cable industry officials who have worked on U.S. government projects.

Based in the small borough of Eatontown, New Jersey, undersea internet cable firm SubCom is playing an outsized role in the race between the United States and China to dominate advanced technologies. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

First, Washington needs SubCom to expand the Navy’s undersea cable network so that it can better coordinate military operations and enhance surveillance on China’s expanding fleet of submarines and warships, the people said. Second, the Biden administration wants SubCom to build more commercial subsea internet cables controlled by U.S. companies, a strategy aimed at ensuring that America remains the primary custodian of the internet, according to the two industry officials.

SubCom operates six cable-laying ships: bespoke deep-sea vessels fitted with vast storage drums to hold sheaves of fiber-optic cable. The Navy has only one such ship – the 40-year-old USNS Zeus – a vessel so old that it is limited to carrying out repairs, according to Eckhard Bruckschen, director of the UK-based Undersea Cable Consultancy.

“SubCom is indispensable to America if it wants to control subsea cables. They’ve got no one else,” Bruckschen told Reuters.

There are only four major companies in the world that manufacture and lay subsea cables: America’s SubCom, Japan’s NEC Corporation, France’s Alcatel Submarine Networks and China’s HMN Tech.

For sensitive U.S. projects, Washington only works with SubCom, according to five industry sources who have worked on projects with the cable company.

The U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.

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Picking sides

Until a U.S. crackdown on Chinese tech companies ramped up five years ago, SubCom laid cables for telecom and tech companies worldwide, including the big state-owned Chinese carriers.

Not anymore. The cable firm now works almost exclusively for the U.S. military and big U.S. tech firms, two SubCom employees told Reuters.

SubCom’s pivot reflects a sea change underway in the internet infrastructure industry, which has long seen choosing sides in great-power politics as bad for business. But U.S. sanctions on Chinese tech companies and an increase in trade-protectionist policies under Biden and his predecessor Trump have forced American tech firms to work mainly with companies and countries viewed as friendly to the United States.

The U.S. Department of Justice in 2020 blocked Google, Meta and Amazon from building fiber-optic cables from the United States to Hong Kong due to concerns about Chinese spying.

Microsoft – whose President Brad Smith said in 2017 that the tech sector needed to be a “neutral digital Switzerland”– announced in May that it had discovered Chinese state-sponsored hackers targeting U.S. critical infrastructure, a rare example of a big tech firm calling out Beijing for espionage. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at the time that the accusations were part of a U.S. disinformation campaign, describing America as the “empire of hacking.”

In December of last year, the Pentagon awarded $9 billion worth of Cloud computing contracts to Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle, entrusting these companies to keep America’s most closely held secrets under digital lock and key.

Sailors participate in a July 2021 beach cleanup on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, home to a remote U.S. Navy base. SubCom last year delivered super-fast internet service to the atoll via a secret spur off a commercial undersea fiber-optic cable it was laying nearby. U.S. Navy via Reuters

“Silicon Valley is waking up to the reality that it has to pick a side,” said Jacob Helberg, former head of Google’s news policy and a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a government agency.

Google did not respond to a request for comment. Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle declined to comment.

SubCom’s loyalty is especially important because it is the only major U.S. subsea cable company. Headquartered in the quiet borough of Eatontown, New Jersey, SubCom secured a $10 million-a-year contract in 2021 from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to run a two-vessel fleet to provide undersea cable security, according to one SubCom employee and one Navy staffer with knowledge of the deal. A 2020 DOT notice to prospective applicants said winners would be responsible for laying, maintaining and repairing subsea cables to support U.S. national security and economic interests, in partnership with the Department of Defense.

The SubCom ships CS Dependable and CS Decisive now make up the U.S. government’s first Cable Security Fleet, the people said.

The DOT and SubCom did not respond to requests for comment.

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Operation ‘Big Wave’

One of CS Dependable’s destinations was Diego Garcia, a horseshoe-shaped atoll which hosts U.S. aircraft carriers and submarines, and has an airfield capable of landing long-range bombers.

Located in the heart of the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia is a British overseas territory. Since the 1970s, Britain has allowed the United States to operate a naval base there. The island is currently home to around 3,000 people, including Navy sailors, family members and support staff, two people who have worked on the atoll told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. Diego Garcia boasts shops, restaurants, bars and pristine beaches, the people said.

Prior to the laying of the new subsea cable, the island base accessed the internet via satellites, which are slower and less reliable than cables, the two people said.

The CS Dependable’s clandestine underwater operation on Diego Garcia was never mentioned publicly by participants in the business deal that made it happen. Rather, they carefully obscured the U.S. military component within a larger private-sector cable project, according to four subsea cable industry sources with knowledge of the arrangement.

In 2020, SubCom announced that it had been commissioned by an Australian tech mogul to lay a $300 million commercial internet cable from Australia to the Sultanate of Oman on the Arabian Peninsula, a route that traverses the Indian Ocean.

That project, known as the Oman Australia Cable, was spearheaded by SUBCO, a Brisbane-based subsea cable investment company owned by Australian entrepreneur Bevan Slattery.

The industry was skeptical about the commercial viability of the route, given it would mostly serve a small pool of Australian telecom firms that already had access to multiple cables running through Southeast Asia to the Middle East, five industry sources told Reuters.

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The Secret Splice

SubCom announced in 2020 that it was building a commercial subsea internet cable from Australia to Oman. The $300 million project included a clandestine link to a U.S. Navy base on the remote Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, which was funded by the Pentagon.

Sources: TeleGeography; Natural Earth

What many of them didn’t know was that the Pentagon had paid for around a third of the entire cable on the condition that it include a splice connecting its commercial trunk to Diego Garcia, two of the people with knowledge of the project told Reuters.

The U.S. Pacific Fleet, in its statement to Reuters, said SUBCO’s Oman Australia Cable offered “a unique opportunity” to connect the remote island with an undersea fiber-optic internet cable.

The statement said the U.S. Pacific Fleet partnered with companies laying the Oman Australia Cable to extend a branch to Diego Garcia, but did not disclose how much it paid for the spur.

“This partnership has increased the digital resiliency and security of our communication infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific,” the statement said.

While the Navy had said nothing officially about the cable until now, sailors on Diego Garcia were tipped off last year. Captain Richard Payne, then-commander on Diego Garcia, mentioned the cable during a Feb. 9 guest appearance on the base’s local radio station, “99.1 The Eagle,” a recording of which was posted on the Navy radio station’s Facebook page.

Payne, who was fielding questions submitted by listeners, volunteered that an unusual vessel could be sighted off the western shore of Diego Garcia.

“We're going to have fiber optics here on the island very soon,” Payne told the program’s host, Alex Kerska or “DJ Special K,” during the segment in which he also addressed complaints about high beer prices on the atoll and called on island residents to attend a kickball tournament.

“Starting today (or) tomorrow, we have the cable-laying ship that is out there off the coast now. It’s a commercial company doing that … It’s a very interesting ship,” Payne continued, without naming the company or the ship.

Payne, who now works in the office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security, did not respond to a request for comment.

The ship Payne was referring to was the CS Dependable, according to the SubCom and Navy sources with knowledge of the operation.

Capt. Richard D. Payne, then-commanding officer of the U.S. Navy base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, salutes comrades on July 6, 2021. Payne mentioned the arrival of a cable-laying ship during a 2022 guest appearance on the base’s radio station. That vessel, which he didn’t name, was SubCom’s CS Dependable. U.S. Navy via Reuters

SubCom’s CS Reliance vessel laid the first half of the commercial cable from Perth, Australia, to the middle of the Indian Ocean. From there, the CS Dependable took over, running the splice to Diego Garcia and laying the rest of the main trunk up to Oman, the people said.

Reuters analyzed satellite images and ship tracking data on Eikon, the financial analysis platform owned by the London Stock Exchange Group. That information showed the CS Dependable operating around Diego Garcia in February and March of 2022, then sailing on to Oman.

The delicate operation was made possible by a decades-long friendship between three veterans of the subsea cable industry, according to two people with knowledge of the dealings.

a) SubCom CEO David Coughlan talks about undersea cable technology in a video posted to YouTube on July 15, 2021. He coordinated the laying of the secret cable to a U.S. Navy base on the remote island of Diego Garcia, according to Navy and SubCom sources. Pacific Telecommunications Council via YouTube/Screenshot

b) Helping Coughlan in that effort, sources said, was Catherine Creese, director of the U.S. Naval Seafloor Cable Protection Office, shown here speaking at an April 8, 2021, virtual forum about Asia’s evolving subsea cable networks. She previously worked with Coughlan at the company now known as SubCom. Center for Strategic and International Studies via YouTube/Screenshot

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Coordinating the Pentagon’s end was Catherine Creese, a former U.S. Coast Guard officer who is now Director of the U.S. Naval Seafloor Cable Protection Office, the unit that oversees the Navy’s subsea cables.

Prior to joining the Navy in 2006, Creese worked at SubCom for 11 years, a time when it was known as Tyco Telecommunications. There she worked closely alongside the man who is now SubCom’s CEO, David Coughlan, according to two former SubCom employees who worked with Coughlan and Creese.

Coughlan and Creese planned and executed the Diego Garcia operation, according to one current SubCom employee and one Navy staffer.

Creese and Coughlan did not respond to requests for comment. The U.S. Navy did not respond to questions about Creese’s involvement.

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‘Dreams come true’

Selling the cable to investors, meanwhile, was the purview of Slattery, the Australian entrepreneur, who has made a fortune building and selling private undersea cables. In a conservative industry, the businessman stands out as a gregarious and outspoken character who is willing to take on risky projects, according to three industry sources who have worked with Slattery.

Slattery did not respond to requests for comment.

SubCom’s Coughlan helped Slattery pull off his first major cable deal in the late 2000s, setting him on course to become one of Australia’s wealthiest tech moguls, according to two industry sources with knowledge of the matter.

That project, a SubCom-built cable running between Brisbane and Guam, a U.S. Pacific island territory that’s also home to a naval base, almost bankrupted Slattery, the businessman told the Australian Financial Review in a 2016 interview.

Thanks to sympathetic suppliers, Slattery got that cable, known as PIPE, over the line, according to the Financial Review article. Crucially, SubCom, the main supplier on the project, extended Slattery credit to get the cable finished, the two industry sources said.

Slattery sold the company that owned the PIPE cable for A$373 million ($248 million) in 2010, the first of a string of successful tech infrastructure bets. Slattery has a personal net worth of A$564 million ($375 million), according to a 2020 “Rich List” published by the Financial Review.

The entrepreneur pitched the Oman Australia Cable in public statements as an alternative to the traditional route between Australia and the Middle East that passes through Southeast Asia. The spur to Diego Garcia was never mentioned.

A blueprint for such a project already existed. Slattery’s cable was essentially a revival and rerouting of a 2017 plan to build a cable between Australia and the Republic of Djibouti on the Horn of Africa, with a secret link to Diego Garcia funded by the Pentagon, according to a person directly involved in that deal. Djibouti is the site of China’s first-ever overseas military base, which opened in 2017.

The earlier proposed cable – known as the Australia West Express – was never built because the U.S. company behind the project, GoTo Networks, couldn’t secure the private investment needed to cover the portion not funded by the Pentagon, the person said.

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SubCom’s cable ship tracked near remote U.S. Navy base

The CS Dependable spent weeks in the waters around Diego Garcia in February and March of 2022, ship tracking data shows. In this period, the ship’s crew laid a secret subsea fiber-optic internet cable to a U.S. Navy base on the atoll, according to SubCom and Navy sources.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

John Mariano, who was the CEO of the now-defunct GoTo Networks, declined to comment. The U.S. Department of Defense did not respond to a request for comment. An official from the president’s office in Djibouti declined to comment.

Cables are typically owned by a consortium of telecom and tech companies that spread the cost and risk. Occasionally, entrepreneurs or private equity firms build a cable on spec with the aim of selling bandwidth to carriers and tech companies before flipping the cable for a profit.

Slattery is a master of such deals, two people who worked with him told Reuters. He used his experience and contacts to attract enough investors to supplement the Pentagon funding to get the Oman Australia Cable built, the two people said.

The 10,000-kilometer cable was officially opened by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in October 2022. It includes a splice to the Cocos Islands, an Australian territory which comprises a cluster of tiny islands between Sri Lanka and Australia. Australia’s military has been seeking parliamentary approval for funds to upgrade an airfield there and make other improvements aimed at strengthening its maritime surveillance capabilities in the region.

Subsea cable entrepreneur Bevan Slattery (far right) and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (center) celebrate the 2022 completion of a fiber-optic cable stretching from Australia to Oman across the Indian Ocean. That commercial cable contained a secret branch to a remote U.S. Navy base. Via Twitter/Screenshot

Slattery on Nov. 19, 2022, tweeted a group photo that included himself and Albanese, both with broad grins, celebrating the cable and the team that made “dreams come true.”

Albanese’s office did not respond to a request for comment about the project, its funding or potential military uses. In an Oct. 22, 2022, tweet sent from his Twitter account, he lauded the cable’s speed, security and reliability, and boasted that it could stream “over 65 million Netflix shows simultaneously.”

The government of Oman did not respond to a request for comment.

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Levers of power

SubCom’s role in the project marked a return to its Cold War roots.

The company was founded in 1955, according to its website, the year the first subsea transatlantic telephone cable system was laid between Scotland and Newfoundland. That cable was deployed by AT&T’s submarine cable unit, which would eventually become SubCom.

The true origins of AT&T’s subsea cable business go back five years earlier, when the company was commissioned by the U.S. Navy to build a network of undersea surveillance cables to listen for Soviet submarines, according to three former employees with knowledge of the matter.

The project was known as the Sound Surveillance System, or “Project Caesar,” according to a declassified document about the program available on the U.S. Navy’s website. The document does not mention AT&T’s involvement.

Once the Navy project was complete, AT&T’s submarine cable project morphed into a commercial business, the former employees said.

AT&T did not respond to a request for comment.

In 1997, AT&T sold its cable-laying operation, including a fleet of ships, to Tyco International, a security company based in New Jersey. In 2018, Tyco sold the cable unit, by this time dubbed TE SubCom, for $325 million to Cerberus, the New York private equity firm.

SubCom doesn’t make public many details about its business. The company has more than 1,300 employees and an annual revenue of $344 million, according to data on Eikon.

Last year, SubCom signed a “master service agreement” with Google, one of the world’s biggest investors in subsea internet cables, according to two people with knowledge of the deal.

That contract, which the people said is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, could help Google build the world’s largest-ever private data network, connecting Cloud data centers around the world with a web of SubCom-manufactured undersea cables.

Google did not respond to a request for comment.

More undersea cables and data centers in the hands of U.S. companies like Google and SubCom is a win for Washington as it seeks to keep Chinese firms away from the internet hardware that will underpin global economic and military progress for decades to come, said Kellee Wicker, director of the Science and Technology Innovation Program at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank.

“Cables are an enormous lever of power,” Wicker said. “If you can’t control these networks directly, you want a company you can trust to control them.”

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News round-up, July 6, 2023

Quote of the day…

“President Harry Truman: “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one place to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”

The Telegraph UK / Today

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Censorship and Freedom of Speech

Capatilist vs. Communist Theory on Speech and Press Freedoms

https://cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs181/projects/2007-08/communism-computing-china/censorship.html

Freedom of information, speech and the press is firmly rooted in the structures of modern western democratic thought.  With limited restrictions, every capitalist democracy has legal provisions protecting these rights.  Even the UN Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the general assembly in 1948 declares "Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers" (although as Article 19, it comes after the right to hold property, be married and hold a nationality, among others).  As such, western ethics heavily favor the nearly unfettered rights to speech, press and information.  Such rights might be tailored to protect state security from a Lockesian social contract perspective, but a Kantian categorical outlook surely provides for a society in which everyone can speak freely is better to one in which no one can speak freely. 

Communism, as a primarily economic system, is much quieter on the issue of individual human rights. Two conflicting positions on these freedoms arise with analysis of communist theory.  The first is an argument against individual freedoms.  In a communist society, the individual's best interests are indistinguishable from the society's best interest.  Thus, the idea of an individual freedom is incompatible with a communist ideology.  The only reason to hold individual speech and information rights would be to better the society, a condition which would likely be met only in certain instances rather than across time, making the default a lack of freedom.

On the other hand, the idea of perfect equality in communism argues for a right of expression and press.  Since each individual is equally important, each should have an equally valid point of view.  Indeed, Marx defended the right to a freedom of the press, arguing in 1842 that restrictions, like censorship were instituted by the bourgeois elite.  He claimed censorship is a tool of the powerful to oppress the powerless. 

Indeed, many implementations of communism favored a constitutional democracy, albeit usually with only one party.  Before and at the creation of many communist countries, a desire for freedom from the oppression of the proletariat by the bourgeois translated into strongly voiced support for individual freedoms for speech, dissent and information.  Chairman Mao, in encouraging his countrymen to prepare for WWII more than a decade before he came to power, proclaimed "[the people] should subject ... the party in power, to severe criticism, and press and impel it to give up its one-party, one-class dictatorship and act according to the opinions of the people....The second matter concerns freedom of speech, assembly and association for the people. Without such freedom, it will be impossible to carry out the democratic reconstruction of the political system."  In 1945, closer yet to his assumption of power, Mao proclaimed, "Two principles must be observed: (1) say all you know and say it without reserve; (2) Don't blame the speaker but take his words as a warning.  Unless the principle of 'Don't blame the speaker" is observed genuinely and not falsely, the result will not be 'Say all you know and say it without reserve."  More striking still is the fact that this latter quote is recorded in "Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-Tung," more commonly known as the Little Red Book, a veritable bible of Chinese communism considered infallible during Mao's lifetime. 

Thus, on the balance, it seems communist theory is compatible with freedoms of speech, information and protest, but it is far from a fundamental right such as it is under democracy and individual-centered ethics systems like that of Kant and Locke.  Freedom of information should only be granted when communist society as a whole is likely to benefit.  In this light, it makes much more sense that communist leaders, while still a persecuted opposition philosophy, would strongly support speech rights and later reject them when communism becomes the ruling system.  At that point, access to oppositional speech and information is no longer beneficial to the communist state, and thus no longer needed in communist philosophy. 

China in Practice

Modern day China, more than almost any other country in the world, severely restricts its citizens freedom of speech and expression. Oddly enough, Article 35 of the current Chinese constitution, written in 1982, stipulates "Citizens of the PRC have freedom of speech, publication, assembly, association, procession and demonstration."  Up to the advent of the internet, the Chinese government had been able to successfully curtail this freedom in nearly all its physical manifestations. China has a tightly controlled traditional media, China forces all published information to be from official sources and to be vetted through the state.  Ironically, the communist state founded on the backbone of Marx's words stipulates a minimum personal income of $35,000 dollars to be able to publish print media, an income level which could easily be considered bourgeois by Chinese standards.  China also has strong restrictions against assembly and worship, demonstrated over the last few days with a crackdown on Tibetan protesters.  Many assumed the government's ability to crack down on dissent would be destroyed by the increased prominence of a dynamic and nearly infinite internet space.  However, China has adapted it's censorship policies to the internet, and by many standards managed to stay ahead of the curve in restricting free speech in the digital realm.

Internet use in China is blossoming. As of 2004 over 94 million users were online and in 2007 the China Internet Network Information Center, considered the premier source for measuring Chinese internet use, pegged the number of Chinese users at 210 million.  This number will only grow in the foreseeable future, with the booming mobile market, more and more a popular portal to the internet, estimated to hit 600 million by 2010.

China Presents: The Internet (This realm has been modified from it's original version.  It has been formatted to fit The Party's view of the world.)

This internet usage boom presents a variety of new challenges to a government adept at censoring traditional media types.  The internet is much more vast than the physical realm controlled by China.  It is not susceptible to the traditional local control structure relying on dedicated neighborhood party leaders to enforce edicts from the centralized government.  Furthermore, the barriers to traditional information distribution of geography, money, and access to printing machinery, are no longer an issue in a digital realm where a cell phone or a few cents can buy time on the internet and allow anyone to blog their opinions.

China has responded with a vast centralized censorship program. One study by a group at Harvard in 2002, "found blocking of almost every kind of content.  If it exists, China blocks at least some of it."  The blocking has traditionally been centered on political and opinion based sites.  Some of the most likely to be blocked are related to independence movements in Taiwan and Tibet, protest groups like the Falun-Gong, political parties opposed to the state, and sites on democracy.  For the majority of Chinese web-users, these controversial topic-specific sites are not part of their daily internet routine, which focuses mostly on sports, entertainment and gaming sites.  These users may have only the vaguest notion of the filtering being conducted by the government. Recently, however, the Great Firewall of China has evoked increased backblash as it has begun to block more popular websites like the photo-sharing site, Flickr and selected MySpace pages .

China's filtering and censorship program is regarded as the most sophisticated and effective in the world.  It includes some 30,000 censors as well as technology, often provided by foreign companies like google and yahoo who are required to censor their results or be censored themselves. The filtering effort is in conjunction with a strict criminal prosecution system working with laws that forbid the publication of anything "(i) Denying the guiding status of Marxism, Mao Zedong Thought, or Deng Xiaoping Theory; (ii) Violating the Party line, guiding principles, or policies; (vii) Anything else that violates Party propaganda discipline or violates national publishing administration regulations."   These laws are enforced with the aid of laws requiring all ISPs and internet cafes to record and store information about all users and their internet use.

Conclusions

It appears that the modern Chinese government has no interest in conforming to the platitudes of free speech, press and dissent espoused by Marx, Mao and it's own active constitution.  While dissent may seem compatible within the framework of theoretical communism, it appears to be at odds with the communism practiced in China.  In revoking its founders statements, the government's position may seem to oppose the spirit of communism; yet, the choices make perfect sense when considered in the framework of making decisions not on a priori ethical assumptions like democracies aspire to do, but rather on the basis of what is best for the communist society at the moment.  While the world wide web may yet be too much for the well-oiled Chinese censorship machine to handle, the government has done remarkably well so far in providing a slimmer, more China-friendly version of the internet to its citizens.

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Most read…

Largest-ever wind project off U.S. shores just got a green light

Ocean Wind 1, which could power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes, is the Biden administration’s third approval of a large offshore wind energy project

The Washington Post By Kate Selig, July 5, 2023 

Yellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China

The Treasury secretary will need to defend export controls and tariffs while explaining that the United States does not aim to harm China’s economy.

NYT By *Alan Rappeport, July 6, 2023

Major banks yet to match EU with nuclear green label - study

The European Union (EU) has recently included nuclear power plants in its roster of environmentally sustainable investments. However, there is dissent among certain member countries regarding this decision. A study recommends that banks revise their green bond regulations to align with the EU's stance on this matter.

REUTERS by Simon Jessop and Kate Abnett, Editing by Germán & Co,  July 6, 2023

NOW / Belarus leader Lukashenko says Prigozhin is back in Russia

State television heavily criticized Prigozhin yesterday, vehemently stating that the investigation is ongoing.

Reuters By Guy Faulconbridge, editing by Germán & Co, July 6, 2023

Inside the campaign branded the ‘largest attack against free speech in US history’

Campaigners argue the White House overstepped its power and limited free speech

The Telegraph By James Titcomb, 6 July 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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This photo from 2016 shows offshore wind turbines near Block Island, R.I. The Biden administration on Tuesday approved a large offshore wind energy project to be built off the coast of New Jersey, which faces local opposition. (Michael Dwyer/AP)

Largest-ever wind project off U.S. shores just got a green light

Ocean Wind 1, which could power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes, is the Biden administration’s third approval of a large offshore wind energy project

The Washington Post By Kate Selig, July 5, 2023 

The Biden administration gave a green light Wednesday to the largest-ever offshore wind project the U.S. has yet approved, paving the way for dozens of turbines that could eventually power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes.

The approval of Ocean Wind 1′s plan for construction and operations is a milestone for the project, which has faced fierce opposition from Republican lawmakers and residents in New Jersey. The project would be the state’s first utility-scale offshore wind farm and could power as many as half a million homes with clean energy, according to Orsted, the Danish energy company developing the project.

“The announcement of Ocean Wind 1’s Record of Decision today represents a pivotal inflection point not just for Orsted, but for New Jersey’s nation-leading offshore wind industry as a whole,” said New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a proponent of offshore wind energy, in a release.

Construction is already underway on the other two large offshore wind projects approved by the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM).

The Vineyard Wind 1 project off Massachusetts and the South Fork Wind project off Rhode Island and New York are expected to generate about 800 megawatts and 130 megawatts of energy, respectively.

Ocean Wind 1 is the largest project of the three. Orsted projects that Ocean Wind 1 will deliver 1,100 megawatts of energy from up to 98 General Electric Haliade-X wind turbines placed approximately 15 miles off the coast of southern New Jersey. Orsted says the project could power approximately 500,000 homes, though BOEM has a slightly lower projection of roughly 380,000.

“The [approval] represents a critical step toward harnessing clean, renewable offshore wind to power New Jersey’s homes and businesses,” said Allison McLeod, the senior policy director of New Jersey League of Conservation Voters.

The Department of the Interior described the approval as a step forward for the offshore wind industry and as constituting “significant progress” toward the Biden administration’s goal of developing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030 in a release.

“The Biden-Harris administration has worked to jump-start the offshore wind industry across the country — and today’s approval for the Ocean Wind 1 project is another milestone in our efforts to create good-paying union jobs while combating climate change and powering our nation,” said Interior Secretary Deb Haaland in the release.

But to reach the administration’s climate goals, proposed wind projects up and down the East Coast will need to overcome steep obstacles, including opposition from Republicans and local residents. The resistance is especially fierce in Cape May County, where a number of coastal communities will be able to spot the wind turbines from the shore.

Residents have joined groups such as Protect Our Coast NJ to rally against the project on the basis of concerns ranging from the deaths of whales to the impact that the turbines could have on local tourism. These activist groups have taken legal action against the wind project.

The county has also enlisted lawyers in its effort to halt the offshore wind development. In June, the county voted to add an additional two law firms to its legal team to challenge federal regulatory decisions and the permits that the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection issued to Orsted.

Former New Jersey Superior Court Judge Michael J. Donohue, who is serving as special counsel to the county, said Cape May County is reviewing BOEM’s decision and “will determine what avenues for legal challenges, if any, exist to pursue.”

In addition to legal challenges, Ocean Wind 1 has suffered from rising interest rates and inflation. The New Jersey legislature narrowly approved a bill last week to let Orsted keep federal tax credits in an effort to address what lawmakers described as lingering economic harms from inflation and the covid-19 pandemic.

Despite these setbacks, Orsted said in a release that with the BOEM approval, the project remains on track to begin onshore construction this fall and ramp up offshore construction in 2024. The project is expected to begin commercial operations in 2025, according to the company.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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Image by Germán & Co

Yellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China

The Treasury secretary will need to defend export controls and tariffs while explaining that the United States does not aim to harm China’s economy.

NYT By *Alan Rappeport, July 6, 2023

*Alan Rappeport covers the Treasury Department and is traveling with Secretary Janet L. Yellen to China this week.

Since then, Ms. Yellen has emerged as a voice of moderation in the Biden administration, embracing the mantle of economic pragmatism as the world economy copes with inflation and sluggish growth. The Treasury secretary has expressed objections to China’s record on human rights, called for diversifying American supply chains and acknowledged that protecting national security is paramount.

But she has also been the administration’s most prominent proponent of maintaining economic ties with China, arguing against tariffs, urging caution on new restrictions on investment in China and, most recently, warning that decoupling the two economies would be “disastrous.”

Set to arrive in Beijing on Thursday for a four-day visit, Ms. Yellen will be navigating those conflicting interests in real time. The trip, her first as Treasury secretary, represents Ms. Yellen’s most challenging test of economic diplomacy to date as she attempts to ease years of festering distrust between the United States and China.

For Ms. Yellen, the challenge will be to convince her Chinese counterparts that the bevy of U.S. measures blocking access to sensitive technology such as semiconductors in the name of national security are not intended to inflict harm on the Chinese economy. That will not be easy, as both countries continue to erect new barriers to trade and investment.

The Biden administration is preparing several new restrictions on U.S. technology trade with China, including potential limits on advanced chips and U.S. investment in the country. Forthcoming rules also appear likely to clamp down on Chinese companies’ access to U.S. cloud computing services, according to people familiar with the matter, in an effort to close a loophole in earlier restrictions on China’s access to advanced chips used for artificial intelligence.

This week Beijing retaliated against the Biden administration’s limits on semiconductors, announcing it would restrict the export of certain critical minerals used in the production of some chips.

On Monday, ahead of her trip, Ms. Yellen met in Washington with Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to the United States, and laid out “issues of concern” in what the Treasury Department described as a frank conversation. According to a summary of the conversation released by the Chinese Embassy, Mr. Xie explained China’s objections to America’s trade practices and urged the United States to take steps to resolve them.

In her meetings in Beijing, Ms. Yellen is expected to make the case that the Biden administration’s actions to make the U.S. economy less reliant on China and to entice more production of critical materials inside the United States are narrowly focused measures that are not meant to instigate a broader economic war. China continues to hold nearly $1 trillion of U.S. debt and is America’s third-largest trading partner, making an abrupt severing of ties potentially calamitous for both countries and the global economy.

“I think she is going to go as the sober voice of reason to say this is not about containment,” said Tim Adams, the president of the Institute of International Finance and a former Treasury under secretary for international affairs. “It’s really about setting the tone of cooperation and showing that the U.S. remains interested in being engaged with China on trade and investment.”

Through the past several decades, the Treasury has consistently been the American government agency that has tried hardest to maintain friendly relations with China. Wall Street firms, a key constituency for the department, tried through the 1990s to win access to the Chinese market through China’s negotiations to join the World Trade Organization. After China joined the W.T.O. in 2002, Wall Street firms and the Treasury Department pushed for China to move faster in actually opening its markets.

Beijing finally agreed in November 2017 to allow foreign investors to hold much larger stakes in insurance, banking and securities businesses, as part of a series of concessions made in an unsuccessful attempt to head off a trade war with the Trump administration.

While it is her first trip to Beijing as Treasury secretary, Ms. Yellen is no stranger to China. In her role as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, she had regular contact with Chinese officials, and as chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018 she would meet with officials from China’s central bank at international gatherings.

The Zhoushan port in the Chinese province of Zhejiang. China is America’s third-largest trading partner, making an abrupt severing of ties potentially calamitous for both countries and the global economy.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Ms. Yellen’s credentials as an academic economist have made her a welcome emissary in Beijing.

“They like her very much because she looks at the world in economic terms, and they’re extremely comfortable with that,” said Craig Allen, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council.

Michael Pillsbury, a senior fellow for China strategy at the Heritage Foundation, said that Chinese officials viewed Ms. Yellen as a voice of reason and that they hoped she would be able to make the case to others in the Biden administration that the United States should back away from new investment restrictions and roll back tariffs.

“They want Janet to help,” said Mr. Pillsbury, who was a top adviser on China in the Trump administration. “They see her as a friend of China.”

Ms. Yellen does not direct trade policy, but she has been critical of the tariffs that President Donald J. Trump imposed on more than $300 billion of Chinese imports.

“Tariffs are taxes on consumers,” Ms. Yellen told The New York Times in 2021. “In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, and the type of deal that the prior administration negotiated really didn’t address in many ways the fundamental problems we have with China.”

Those tariffs remain under review by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and Ms. Yellen has acknowledged that they are unlikely to be rolled back anytime soon.

Ms. Yellen’s ability to forge deeper ties with Beijing could be complicated by the current political moment.

Concerns about China have grown after a spy balloon traversed the United States before being shot down over the Atlantic Ocean. The upcoming presidential election is also likely to escalate anti-China rhetoric as candidates look to paint themselves as tough on China, often a winning campaign message. And Republicans have been expressing criticism of greater U.S. outreach to China.

Ms. Yellen’s visit follows a trip last month by Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state. John F. Kerry, the special climate envoy, is expected to make a trip to Beijing soon.

Representative Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican who leads the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, accused the Biden administration of slow-walking export restrictions targeting Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant, and sanctions against Chinese officials responsible for human rights violations against Uyghurs in Xinjiang. He argued that China’s behavior had gotten worse while the Biden administration pursued “zombie engagement” with the Chinese Communist Party.

“After Secretary Blinken left Beijing with little to show for his trip, doubling down by sending additional cabinet-level officials like Secretary Yellen would only perpetuate this vicious cycle,” Mr. Gallagher said.

With Republican presidential candidates like Nikki Haley warning that China is “preparing for war” with the United States, there is additional urgency for Ms. Yellen to find ways to keep the lines of communication with her Chinese counterparts open even if her trip does not yield any major breakthroughs.

“The Chinese are very aware of the U.S. election cycle, and in my mind this is partly why they have been willing to be a little more open,” said Eswar Prasad, a former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “Both Secretary Yellen and the Chinese would like to get back to a place where they see at least parts of the economic relationship as a positive-sum game, rather than a zero-sum game.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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An excavator works near Hungary's Paks nuclear power plant to prepare the new Paks II construction site in Paks, Hungary, May 9, 2023. REUTERS/Marton Monus/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Major banks yet to match EU with nuclear green label - study

The European Union (EU) has recently included nuclear power plants in its roster of environmentally sustainable investments. However, there is dissent among certain member countries regarding this decision. A study recommends that banks revise their green bond regulations to align with the EU's stance on this matter.

REUTERS by Simon Jessop and Kate Abnett, Editing by Germán & Co,  July 6, 2023

LONDON/BRUSSELS, July 6 (Reuters) - None of the world's 30 major banks have explicitly included nuclear energy in their criteria for issuing green or sustainability-linked bonds, researchers said on Thursday, despite an EU decision last year to label it as sustainable.

The European Union decided last year to include nuclear power plants in its list of investments that can be labelled and marketed as green. The move aimed to guide investors towards climate-friendly technologies, but split EU countries who disagree on atomic energy's green credentials.

So far, banks have not followed the EU's lead in their own green bond rules, according to an analysis by Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. The study looked at the 30 banks deemed systemically important by the Financial Stability Board.

Of those banks, 17 had explicitly excluded nuclear energy from their green financing frameworks, while 12 had frameworks that were silent on nuclear, and one had no such framework, the researchers said.

The EU's own green bond standard includes nuclear power. But exclusion from banks' frameworks could restrict the sector's access to a fast-growing pool of sustainable capital.

Green bond issuance hit a record high globally in both the first and second quarters of 2023, Refinitiv data showed.

Research co-author Matt Bowen said he was surprised nuclear energy was so often excluded from banks' green finance guidelines, given its potential contribution to fighting climate change.

Nuclear energy does not produce climate-damaging CO2 emissions in the same way that fossil fuels such as oil and gas do, but it does produce radioactive waste.

Countries including Germany and Austria oppose the energy source and lobbied against the EU's decision to label it as green, citing concerns including waste disposal, the potential risk of accidents and long delays to recent nuclear projects.

The International Energy Agency has said global nuclear capacity would need to roughly double by 2050, if the world is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko walks before a press conference in Minsk, Belarus July 6, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/ Editing by Germán & Co

NOW / Belarus leader Lukashenko says Prigozhin is back in Russia

State television heavily criticized Prigozhin yesterday, vehemently stating that the investigation is ongoing.

Reuters By Guy Faulconbridge, editing by Germán & Co, July 6, 2023

MINSK, July 6 (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who last month brokered a deal to end an armed mutiny in Russia, said on Thursday that Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was no longer in Belarus.

Lukashenko said on June 27 that Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group whose fighters briefly captured a southern Russian city and marched towards Moscow, had arrived in Belarus as part of the June 24 deal that defused the crisis.

But Lukashenko told reporters on Thursday: "As for Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg (Russia's second biggest city). He is not on the territory of Belarus."

A business jet linked to Prigozhin left St Petersburg for Moscow on Wednesday and was heading for southern Russia on Thursday, according to flight tracking data, but it was not clear if the mercenary chief was on board.

Lukashenko said an offer for Wagner to station some of its fighters in Belarus - a prospect that has alarmed neighbouring NATO countries - still stands.

He said he did not see it as a risk to Belarus and did not believe Wagner fighters would ever take up arms against his country.

Lukashenko has spoken proudly of his role in ending the armed mutiny, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has said could have plunged Russia into civil war. Last week Lukashenko said he had persuaded Putin not to "wipe out" Prigozhin.

But much remains unclear about the terms of the deal Lukashenko brokered, and whether it is being implemented as agreed.

Russian state TV on Wednesday launched a fierce attack on Prigozhin and said an investigation into what had happened was still being vigorously pursued.

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Source: The Telegraph UK Editing by Germán & Co

Inside the campaign branded the ‘largest attack against free speech in US history’

Campaigners argue the White House overstepped its power and limited free speech

The Telegraph By James Titcomb, 6 July 2023 

As the Delta variant spread across the US in July 2021, Clarke Humphrey, an official at the White House’s Covid-19 response team, emailed two Facebook executives asking them to take down an Instagram account impersonating Anthony Fauci.

“Hi there – any way we can get this pulled down? It is not actually one of ours,” Humphrey wrote. Less than a minute later, Facebook responded: “Yep, on it!”

The account imitating the then chief medical adviser was duly deleted – far quicker than if it had been reported through Instagram’s standard channels.

The emails are among those in a cache of more than 15,000 gathered by state prosecutors in a lawsuit against the US officials including Joe Biden, seeking to shut down contact between the White House and social media giants.

Last year, Louisiana and Missouri’s attorneys general, alongside a number of prominent anti-vaccine campaigners, sued the White House, seeking a ruling that the communication violated US free speech laws.

On Tuesday – the Independence Day timing may or may not have been a coincidence – a judge appointed by Donald Trump issued a stunning injunction forbidding a lengthy list of White House officials from making contact with social media companies to report misinformation.

The order bars individuals including Xavier Becerra, the US health secretary, Vivek Murthy, the surgeon general, and Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House Press Secretary, among dozens more officials, from “urging, encouraging , pressuring, or inducing in any manner the removal, deletion, suppression, or reduction of content containing protected free speech posted on social-media platforms”.

In a 155-page ruling, the judge, Terry Doughty, said the case “arguably involves the most massive attack against free speech in United States’ history” and compared the administration’s actions to the “Ministry of Truth”, the repressive censorship authority in George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four.

The Biden administration is likely to appeal the injunction – which is not final – and said it did not order posts to be taken down. However, it is a major victory for campaigners who have argued that democratic governments overstepped their power during the pandemic, including restrictions on free speech.

The trove of emails, obtained through legal requests, contain no single smoking gun. Instead they illustrate ongoing pressure from officials at various US government agencies to pressure YouTube, Twitter, and – in particular – Facebook parent Meta to act faster and more aggressively on anti-vaccine posts, conspiracy theories and the lab-leak theory.

Sir Nick Clegg, the former deputy prime minister and Meta’s president of global affairs, was intimately involved in the White House discussions, sending regular reports on how the company was tackling misinformation and pushing back on public pronouncements from officials criticising Meta.

In one phone call between Murthy and Sir Nick, the surgeon general asked Meta to do more to tackle misinformation. In another email in 2021, Andy Slavitt, the White House’s senior Covid-19 adviser, emailed Sir Nick complaining about a post from the Fox News host Tucker Carlson expressing scepticism about vaccines.

“Number one on Facebook. Sigh,” Slavitt wrote, according to legal documents. Sir Nick responded saying the post did not break Facebook’s rules, but was being demoted so that fewer people would see it in news feeds. Rob Flaherty, the White House’s director of digital strategy, responded saying: “There’s 40,000 shares on the video. . . . How effective is that?”

He added: “Not for nothing but last time we did this dance, it ended in an insurrection,” referring to the January 6 attack on the Capitol. In other emails, Sir Nick apologised for not responding to posts that broke Facebook’s rules more quickly, the documents say.

After Biden made an offhand remark accusing Facebook of “killing people” by allowing posts criticising the vaccine, Sir Nick texted Murthy, the surgeon general. “It’s not great to be accused of killing people,” he wrote. Nonetheless, at a subsequent meeting, Facebook agreed to “do more” to tackle Covid misinformation.

Despite the occasional resistance from Facebook, emails published as part of the lawsuit often showed White House officials berating social media companies, who were deferential in response. “We think there is considerably more we can do in ‘partnership’ with you and your team to drive behaviour,” one executive wrote.

Officials were also active in encouraging Twitter and YouTube to remove content, according to the order. In the early weeks of the administration, Flaherty emailed Twitter asking them to remove a parody account linked to Biden’s granddaughter, writing: “Please remove this account immediately.” It was gone 45 minutes later.

Humphrey asked the company to remove an anti-vaccine tweet by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Later that year, Christian Tom, a deputy director of digital strategy, asked Twitter to remove a digitally altered video of Jill Biden that made it appear as if the First Lady was swearing at children. Twitter initially said it did not violate its policies, but later removed the clip.

YouTube, meanwhile, was asked why it was “funnelling people into hesitancy” over the vaccine. The companies did not comment.

The White House denied that it had forced social media companies to take material offline.

“Our consistent view remains that social media platforms have a critical responsibility to take account of the effects their platforms are having on the American people, but make independent choices about the information they present,” it said.

But as the lawsuit argues, the conversations were not taking place in a vacuum. They came as debates raged across Congress about whether to remove “Section 230” protections enjoyed by social media companies that limit responsibility for what their users post, and as the US government pursued lawsuits against Facebook and Google seeking to break the companies up.

Whatever the case’s ultimate outcome, its plaintiffs may believe they have already been successful. A “Disinformation Governance Board” set up last April, which prompted the lawsuit, was disbanded in August.

After reporting by The Telegraph, the UK Government is under pressure to shut down its own Counter Disinformation Unit, which passed information to social media companies to encourage them to take down posts. And Elon Musk, a champion of conservative voices, now owns Twitter.

In his conclusion, the judge quoted the late Democrat president Harry Truman: “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one place to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”

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News round-up, July 5, 2023

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By the way of…

The meeting between Modi, Putin, and Xi on Thursday could end a long-standing narrative titled:

"I Love You, But I am Not In Love With You..."

Or, to the brilliant Milan Kundera thinking’s:

“The true essence of emotions lies not in yearning for a passionate tryst but rather in yearning for a peaceful slumber with a cherished companion...

Russia, China, and Indian leaders will hold a virtual Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to discuss their priorities and objectives.

For Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, it is imperative to demonstrate his authority in response to the uprising of the Wagner mercenary group and to secure international support for his ill-fated and unsuccessful military intervention in Ukraine. Putin needs the support of his fellow leaders; however, he only received —superficial displays of affection— during the previous convention. A sense of caution has accompanied China's support in bolstering Putin's position.

Consequently, Xi has already encountered strained relations with his European counterparts due to their divergent positions on issues related to Russia. In stark contrast, Xi Jinping expressed his disapproval of the United States and called for an end to hegemonic practices.

Finally, Narendra Modi, the —arising start— Prime Minister of India, will seize the opportunity to highlight India's growing influence and indirectly convey disapproval towards Pakistan. Given the strategic considerations and the imperative to counterbalance China's influence, it is likely that India will continue to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) actively.

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Concerns Surrounding the Zaporiyia Nuclear Power Plant Today

Concerns have arisen regarding the current state of the Zaporiyia Nuclear Power Plant, located close to the Chernobyl disaster site. These concerns stem from deliberately damaging a vital dike that supplies water to cool down the reactor.

In her latest work, "The Ridiculous Idea of Never Seeing You Again," Rosa Montero, born on January 3, 1951, in Cuatro Caminos, the acclaimed Spanish journalist and contemporary fiction author, takes us on a profound journey that intertwines the life of Marie Curie, was born on November 7, 1867, in Warsaw, Congress Kingdom of Poland, Russian Empire and passed away on July 4, 1934, near Sallanches, France. By using the biography of the Nobel Prize, Marie Curie as a narrative thread, Montero skillfully invites us to reflect on the challenges of our time. Montero's book is challenging to categorize and opens with a striking sentence: "As I have not had children, the most important thing that has happened in my life is my death." This diary-like narrative explores the life and contributions of Marie Curie, a Polish chemist and physicist who later became a French citizen. Thanks to Curie and her husband, Pierre, we can now combat cancer, but “Curie's explanations about the dangers of radiation are unparalleled. It is crucial to remember that exposure to radium radiation can destroy malignant tissue, making it an effective treatment for halting the growth of cancerous tumors. Radium is also used as a source of neutrons in scientific experiments and in the production of radon for cancer treatment and other medical procedures. Polonium, on the other hand,  is utilized in devices designed for static charge removal, special brushes used to eliminate dust that has accumulated on photographic film, and as heat sources for artificial satellites or space probes. Unfortunately, not all applications of these elements are positive, as their high radioactivity also poses a significant potential for harm. For example, when polonium is mixed with beryllium (a common element used for alloy hardening), it can cause a rapid implosion that triggers a chain reaction at the atomic level with other elements. As you may have guessed, this makes it an essential component of the atomic bomb.

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Most read…

Judge Orders Biden Officials to Limit Contact With Social-Media Companies

Ruling says Biden administration policing of social media likely violated First Amendment

WSJ By Jacob Gershman, July 4, 2023 

Wagner rebellion raises doubts about stability of Russia’s nuclear arsenal

The current situation in Russia has generated apprehension and unease among officials in Western countries. There is a legitimate concern that whoever assumes control over Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction could pose a significant threat to global security.

The Washington Post By Robyn Dixon, July 5, 2023

European Green Deal: More leaders call for 'a regulatory pause'

In the run-up to the 2024 elections, heads of state from the EU-27 are seeking to take into account the economic and social challenges posed by Russia's attack on Ukraine, including food security and the cost of living.

Le Monde By Virginie Malingre, yesterday (Paris)

Saudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong

Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain robust oil cooperation within the OPEC+ alliance. It is comforting to know that the alliance is willing to take any necessary actions to support the market, as Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman mentioned.

Reuters By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Shadia Nasralla, Editing by Germán & co, July 5, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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The case tests the limits on government scrutiny of social-media content on sites like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: MATT CARDY

Judge Orders Biden Officials to Limit Contact With Social-Media Companies

Ruling says Biden administration policing of social media likely violated First Amendment

WSJ By Jacob Gershman, July 4, 2023 

A federal judge issued a broad preliminary injunction limiting the federal government from communicating with social-media companies about online content, ruling that Biden administration officials’ policing of social-media posts likely violated the First Amendment.

In a 155-page ruling issued Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty of Louisiana barred White House officials and multiple federal agencies from contacting social-media companies with the purpose of suppressing political views and other speech normally protected from government censorship.

The judge’s injunction came in a lawsuit led by the Republican attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana who alleged that the Biden administration fostered a sprawling “federal censorship enterprise” in its effort to stamp out what it viewed as rampant disinformation circulating on social media.

The government, the lawsuit claimed, pressured social-media platforms to scrub away disfavored views about Covid-19 health policies, the origins of the pandemic, the Hunter Biden laptop story, election security and other divisive topics.

A spokesman for the Justice Department declined to comment on the ruling. In a brief previously filed with the court, the department denied the plaintiffs’ allegations and said that the federal government took necessary and responsible actions to deal with a pandemic and foreign attempts at election interference.

The case is among the most potentially consequential First Amendment battles pending in the courts, testing the limits on government scrutiny of social-media content on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and other major platforms.

Never before has a federal judge set such sweeping limits on how the federal government may communicate with online platforms, according to lawyers involved in the case.

Some legal scholars have been skeptical that the government can be held responsible for content-moderation decisions ultimately made by private companies or that courts could intervene without chilling legitimate government speech about controversial matters of public interest.

The Justice Department is likely to appeal the injunction.

The judge’s Independence Day order is likely to intensify conservative criticisms about internet censorship and the debate over the government’s role in encouraging platforms to remove content that it considers to be misinformation, malicious content or harmful to public health.

“[T]he evidence produced thus far depicts an almost dystopian scenario,” wrote Doughty, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, in his ruling. “During the COVID-19 pandemic, a period perhaps best characterized by widespread doubt and uncertainty, the United States Government seems to have assumed a role similar to an Orwellian ‘Ministry of Truth.’”

The judge said the plaintiffs “have presented substantial evidence in support of their claims that they were the victims of a far-reaching and widespread censorship campaign” that he said almost exclusively targeted conservative views.

Missouri v. Biden, as the case is called, is among dozens of so-called censorship-by-proxy lawsuits challenging account suspensions, content removals and other suppression of social-media posts on First Amendment grounds.

The plaintiffs have argued that White House and other government officials bullied social-media companies into suppressing views disliked by the administration—including criticism of mask mandates and objections to Covid-19 vaccination for children—with veiled threats of new regulatory liabilities and antitrust enforcement.

Other courts have rejected similar claims, including in a lawsuit Trump brought against Twitter when it banned him after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, reinstated Trump, but after a federal court threw out Trump’s lawsuit due to in part an absence of evidence that Twitter had banned him at the government’s behest.

Courts have thrown out other lawsuits by censored medical activists, independent journalists and conservative commentators for failing to show that the social-media companies were doing the government’s bidding.

The Missouri v. Biden lawsuit has cast a wider net than other cases, with the states asserting an interest in protecting the speech rights of their citizens.

Doughty also permitted the plaintiffs at an unusually early stage in the case to gather additional evidence, such as email communications between White House officials and social-media companies, and to depose high-ranking government officials including Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

The judge referred to numerous email exchanges between White House officials and platform executives. In one email to Google employees from April 2021, the White House’s then-director of digital strategy, Rob Flaherty, charged that YouTube was “funneling” people into vaccine hesitancy. “This is a concern that is shared at the highest (and I mean highest) levels of the WH,” he wrote.

The Missouri v. Biden lawsuit alleges the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the State Department’s Global Engagement Center and the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency colluded with social-media platforms “in hundreds of meetings about misinformation” and systematically flagged “huge quantities of First Amendment-protected speech to platforms for censorship.”

Other plaintiffs in the suit include epidemiologists who are authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, an October 2020 open letter critical of Covid-19 government lockdown policies and school closures. They allege that Fauci helped lead a campaign to discredit the declaration and suppress it on social media.

“What a way to celebrate Independence Day,” Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey tweeted in response to Tuesday’s ruling. In an earlier interview, Bailey described the case as the “most important First Amendment lawsuit in a generation.”

The Justice Department, representing the government defendants, filed a brief nearly 300 pages long denying the allegations, including that any of the content moderation decisions at issue were the result of government pressure.

“The record in this case shows that the Federal Government promoted necessary and responsible actions to protect public health, safety, and security when confronted by a deadly pandemic and hostile foreign assaults on critical election infrastructure,” the department said.

The department also warned that the proposed injunction sought by the plaintiffs “would significantly hinder the Federal Government’s ability to combat foreign malign influence campaigns, prosecute crimes, protect the national security, and provide accurate information to the public on matters of grave public concern such as healthcare and election integrity.”

Doughty wrote that his order isn’t a blanket ban on government communication with social media. He said agencies could inform platforms about postings involving criminal activity, national security and public-safety threats or content intending to mislead voters about voting requirements and procedures.

Nothing in his order, he wrote, prevents federal agencies from ”exercising permissible public government speech promoting government policies or views on matters of public concern.”

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Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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A view of the Kremlin in Moscow. (Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) / Editing by Germán & Co

Wagner rebellion raises doubts about stability of Russia’s nuclear arsenal

The current situation in Russia has generated apprehension and unease among officials in Western countries. There is a legitimate concern that whoever assumes control over Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction could pose a significant threat to global security.

The Washington Post By Robyn Dixon, July 5, 2023

The rebellion in Russia by Wagner mercenaries confronted Western officials with one of their gravest fears: the possibility of political chaos and instability in the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.

Anxiety over who might gain control of Russia’s weapons of mass destruction has long tempered Western hopes that President Vladimir Putin might be ousted from power. But months of nuclear posturing by Putin and other senior Russian officials, and a new debate among Moscow analysts on using a nuclear weapon on a NATO country, have raised doubts about whether Putin really provides the stability necessary to avoid an atomic Armageddon — or if he is the risk they should fear most.

Russian officials have played on the West’s nuclear fears throughout the war in an effort to undermine Western support for Ukraine and to slow weapons deliveries, a tactic that seems to have worked.

And in recent weeks the drumbeat has intensified, with some well-connected Russian strategic analysts and think tank experts openly proclaiming the “necessity” for Moscow to carry out a preemptive tactical nuclear strike on a NATO country, like Poland — to avoid defeat in the war on Ukraine and to revive Western terror of Russia’s nuclear might.

Since the Wagner rebellion, Sergei Karaganov, a former Kremlin adviser and influential Russian political scientist, has doubled down on calls for Moscow to do so. In an earlier article last month headlined, “A Difficult but Necessary Decision,” Karaganov argued the risk of a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia, and nuclear Armageddon, “can be reduced to an absolute minimum.”

No sane American president would put the United States at risk by “sacrificing conditional Boston for conditional Poznań,” he wrote, referring to a city in Poland.

Hawkish Moscow-based military analyst, Dmitry Trenin, supported Karaganov, arguing that “an unambiguous — and no longer verbal — signal should be sent” to Washington.

“The possibility of using nuclear weapons in the current conflict should not be hidden,” he wrote in an essay, calling for the revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which limits the use of nuclear weapons to cases where Russia’s existence is threatened. Both essays were published by influential Russian foreign policy think tank, the Foreign Policy Research Foundation.

Trenin lamented that Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus — which Putin says will be completed by year end — had caused no visible alarm in Western capitals.

Karaganov’s essays have a messianic tone that reflect Putin’s zealous view of his place in history, solving what Moscow likes to call “the Ukraine problem,” a reference to an independent, democratic nation choosing a pro-Europe path on Russian borders.

He argues nuclear weapons were invented by God to revive mankind’s fear of Armageddon, insisting, “That fear needs to be revived.” He sees Russia as “chosen by history” to destroy the “Western yoke,” and “finally free the world.”

Many Russian nuclear arms experts gasped in horror at the calls from Karaganov and Trenin. One, Ivan Timofeev, called it “extremely dangerous.”

Three experts from the Center for International Security writing in Kommersant newspaper, Alexei Arbatov, Konstantin Bogdanov and Dmitry Stefanovich, called the idea that Washington would not strike back, “highly doubtful and likely erroneous.”

Then came the specter of civil war, with Wagner mercenaries rolling in a convoy toward Moscow in the most serious political chaos since 1993 when President Boris Yeltsin ordered tanks to fire on the country’s parliament to squash a rebellion by lawmakers.

After mutiny, Kremlin looks to unwind holdings tied to Wagner mercenary boss

As the Wagner rebellion unfolded earlier this month, United States officials contacted Moscow to assure Putin that Prigozhin’s rebellion was an internal Russian matter, according to National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. That reassurance highlighted the worry among Western leaders that Putin, sensing a Western plot or fearing defeat, could take radical action.

The rebellion is over, but any drastic new shocks in the war could trigger instability in Russia. A major new defeat in the war could topple Putin, said Anatol Lieven, of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, or it could see him escalate and resort to a tactical nuclear weapon.

If Putin faced the loss of occupied Crimea, “the chances of escalation would be extraordinarily high because he would believe it was necessary to save Crimea, but it would also be necessary to save his regime at that point,” Lieven said.

Analysts predict a major internal crackdown in Russia, to prevent any similar rebellion by any armed rogue group in future.

After seizing a military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, Wagner fighters moved north to the city of Voronezh raising alarm about the Voronezh-45 nuclear weapons storage facility located about 130 miles further east. But even if Wagner had targeted the weapons — and there is no evidence it did — the mercenaries would not have been able to use them, analysts said.

“Can an armed group like Wagner take control of some of Russia's nuclear weapons and somehow use or detonate them? The short answer is no, it's virtually impossible,” tweeted Pavel Podvig, nuclear arms expert at the U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research, after a blue-checked Twitter conspiracy theorist spread disinformation to more than 250,000 Twitter followers that Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin had “got the nukes.”

At last month’s St. Petersburg economic forum, Putin said nuclear weapons would protect Russian security “in the broadest sense of the word,” but that there was “no need” to use them at present.

Pressed at the plenary session on whether he would be willing to use them, Putin joked, “What should I say? Scare the whole world? Why do we need to scare the whole world?”

But since the invasion of Ukraine Putin and top officials including deputy head of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have led the nuclear fearmongering. Announcing the invasion on day one, Putin warned that any country that interfered in the war would face consequences “such as you have never seen in your entire history,” in an unambiguous hint about nuclear weapons.

Ukraine says Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby.

Days later, he put Russian nuclear weapons into “special combat readiness.” Since then Russia has suspended participation in the New START accord and announced that nuclear weapons would be stored in Belarus. In September, Putin explicitly warned that Russia would use nuclear weapons if its territory was threatened, as he claimed to annex four Ukrainian regions.

In the latest nuclear warning, Medvedev said a nuclear apocalypse was “not just possible but quite probable” in an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Sunday, because “there is no taboo” on using nuclear weapons. Medvedev claimed that the West had to accept the annihilation of Ukraine’s “Nazi” government — “if it does not want an apocalyptic end” to civilization.

Some analysts saw the debate on nuking a NATO country as an orchestrated bluff to escalate Western nuclear fears, but others saw it merely as hard-liners venting about Russia’s failings in the war.

“It’s fair to say that people in that community feel frustration about the situation, and my take is that they are thinking out loud,” Podvig said in an interview. He said that Russian officials had been “pretty consistent, that nuclear weapons could only be used to protect Russia from some kind of existential threat.”

“The weapons are there, and there are scenarios in which they can be used. However, we are, at least at this point, two steps away from this point.” If Russia began to seriously consider using nuclear weapons in Ukraine or Poland, there would first be a much sharper switch in Kremlin rhetoric, he said.

Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience

But a worrying question is what would comprise an “existential threat” to Russia in Putin’s mind, given his profound conviction that he is the state’s sole guardian and protector.

In January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of the Doomsday Clock forward by 10 seconds to 90 seconds to midnight, largely “because of the mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine,” it said.

Artur Kacprzyk, analyst on nuclear arms at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said the Moscow debate on striking Poland was a form of nuclear coercion designed to intimidate NATO, and it caused “concern but definitely not panic.”

“The level of this debate in Russia, and its intensity, about potential nuclear use is higher than before,” he said. “If they believe that the West will fold, that will encourage them to just increase and increase these threats.”

Days before the Wagner rebellion, President Biden said the risk of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon against Europe was “real,” Reuters reported.

But Kirby said last week that the United States had seen “no indication that Mr. Putin is interested in moving in that direction and nor have we seen anything that would cause us to change our own deterrent posture.”

Pro-Kremlin analysts like to argue that a nuclear power “cannot lose” the war, despite a history of bogged down military misadventures by Moscow and Washington.

According to Podvig, a source of frustration for Russia was that possessing nuclear weapons was simply not a decisive factor to win the war.

“It’s not that someone does not respect Russia’s nuclear weapons,” Podvig said. “It’s that you cannot really think of a way of using them to gain any advantage. At this point, I guess the only thing that Russia gets out of its nuclear weapons is that there is no direct involvement of NATO or the United States in this war.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Ursula von der Leyen, formerly a minister under Angela Merkel and currently the president of the European Commission/ Editing by Germán & Co

European Green Deal: More leaders call for 'a regulatory pause'

In the run-up to the 2024 elections, heads of state from the EU-27 are seeking to take into account the economic and social challenges posed by Russia's attack on Ukraine, including food security and the cost of living.

Le Monde By Virginie Malingre, yesterday (Paris)

For Ursula von der Leyen, the issue is complex. Formerly a minister under Angela Merkel and currently the president of the European Commission, she has made the Green Deal one of the priorities of her mandate. But she is currently facing pushback from the conservatives in her own group, the European People's Party (EPP), who are increasingly open in questioning the policy's merits. With European elections scheduled for June 2024, von der Leyen, who would need the support of her party to run for a second term, is walking on eggshells.

On Thursday, June 29, Europe's right-wing heads of state and government – Nikos Christodoulides (Cyprus), Krisjanis Karins (Latvia), Ulf Kristersson (Sweden), Kyriakos Mitsotakis (Greece), Karl Nehammer (Austria), Petteri Orpo (Finland), Andrej Plenkovic (Croatia) and Leo Varadkar (Ireland) – who met in Brussels before heading to a European Council meeting, all approved an EPP declaration calling for "a regulatory pause" at a European level, particularly on the Green Deal. The document calls on institutions to "take into account the new economic and social realities following Russia's attack" on Ukraine.

Von der Leyen, who attended the meeting as usual, did not take part in the debate. She chose to remain silent. A number of leaders, including Plenkovic, Varadkar and Karins, nevertheless stressed that, in attacking the Green Deal, they must be careful not to "weaken" the Commission president, who could enable the EPP to retain the head executive position of the EU after the European elections in June 2024.

Indeed, when it comes to environmental issues, the EPP has always avoided any direct attacks on von der Leyen, despite the fact that she has made the Green Deal a cornerstone of her efforts in Europe. Instead, the party's preferred target is Frans Timmermans, the Commission vice-president responsible for the Green Deal, who comes from the ranks of the Social Democrats. The EPP never misses an opportunity to point out that Timmermans' cabinet director is a former Greenpeace member.

Radical transformation of the EPP

Von der Leyen's entourage stressed that, as president of the Commission, she is obligated to attend EPP pre-summit meetings, but that she does not take any part in drafting the conclusions. "It's a bit hypocritical," said an EPP executive. When questioned on the subject by Le Monde, von der Leyen replied that she "of course listens to the voices of those who have to implement legislation in their companies or on their farms," adding: "My position is well known: environmental regulation and competitiveness or agriculture can go hand in hand."

In recent months, the EPP has undergone a radical transformation in the European Parliament, where the party is the leading political force. After supporting some 30 articles in von der Leyen's Green Deal – notably those designed to move the European Union towards climate neutrality by 2050 – the group is now waging a merciless war, alongside the far right, against two emblematic environmental bills: those on nature restoration and reducing pesticide use.

Manfred Weber, president of the EPP and the group's leader in the European Parliament, has argued that these bills threaten agricultural production, jeopardize food security and drive up the cost of living. Between the war in Ukraine and inflation, Weber claims that a break is urgently needed. As a member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), Weber adds that Germany's recession is not helping matters. The fact that the CDU-CSU is now in opposition to Berlin probably doesn't help either.

For the time being, the future of the nature restoration bill is in jeopardy, given that three parliamentary committees – environment, agriculture and fisheries – have rejected it. The fate of the bill will be sealed at the Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg in July (or September).

Liberal leaders also express doubts

Against this backdrop, Spanish Socialist MEP César Luena questioned the president of the European Commission on June 27, asking her to take a clear stance on the issue: "[Her] political group is withdrawing from the Green Deal. She hasn't said anything yet. Ursula von der Leyen, you must react," he declared. For now, von der Leyen has not responded. Timmermans nevertheless saw fit to do so "in her name and under her supervision," on June 28, by once again lending his support to the nature restoration bill.

Until recently, only the heads of state and government of certain Eastern European countries, with their high-carbon economies, had expressed reticence. More recently, liberal leaders have also voiced their doubts.

French President Emmanuel Macron also called for a "regulatory pause" after 2024, exasperating some of his party members. Alexander De Croo, the Belgian prime minister, followed suit: "What must be avoided (...) is overloading the boat, by adding new standards to the CO2 emission targets," particularly "in the field of biodiversity. I ask that we press the pause button, except for CO2."

In the Netherlands, Mark Rutte has not yet been quite as outspoken. But the success of the "Farmers' Party," an anti-Green Deal movement which, in March, made a real breakthrough in the regional elections, is leading him to advocate a degree of caution. With one year to go to the European elections, the subject is still a hot topic of political debate.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud arrives for an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo/ Editing by Germán & Co

Saudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong

Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain robust oil cooperation within the OPEC+ alliance. It is comforting to know that the alliance is willing to take any necessary actions to support the market, as Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman mentioned.

Reuters By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Shadia Nasralla, Editing by Germán & co, July 5, 2023

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Russia-Saudi oil cooperation is still going strong as part of the OPEC+ alliance, which will do "whatever necessary" to support the market, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a conference on Wednesday.

OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia which pumps around 40% of the world's crude, has been cutting oil output since November in the face of flagging prices.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's biggest oil exporters, deepened oil supply cuts on Monday in an effort to send prices higher.

Yet the move only briefly lifted the market. On Wednesday, benchmark Brent futures were down more than 1% at $75.30 per barrel, lower than the $80-$100 per barrel than most OPEC nations need to balance their budgets.

OPEC says it does not have a price target and is seeking to have a balanced oil market to meet the interests of both consumers and producers.

The United States, the biggest oil producer outside OPEC+, has repeatedly called on the group to boost production to help the global economy and has criticised Saudi cooperation with Russia after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

But Riyadh has repeatedly rebuffed U.S. calls and Prince Abdulaziz said on Wednesday that new joint oil output cuts agreed by Russia and Saudi Arabia this week have again proven sceptics wrong.

"Part of what we have done (on Monday) with the help of our colleagues from Russia was also to mitigate the cynical side of the spectators on what is going on between Saudi and Russia on that specific matter," Prince Abdulaziz said.

"It is quite telling seeing us on Monday coming out with not only our (oil cut) extension... but also with validation from the Russian side," he told a meeting of oil industry CEOs with ministers from OPEC and allies, known as the OPEC International Seminar.

OPEC has withheld media access to reporters from Reuters, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal to cover the event, which was partly broadcast online.

After the end of the broadcast, Prince Abdulaziz told the seminar that OPEC+ would do "whatever necessary" to support the market, according to a source who attended the meeting.

ENOUGH FOR NOW

Additional oil cuts should be enough to help balance the oil market, United Arab Emirates' energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told reporters on Wednesday.

"This (the latest addition output cuts) is enough to assess the market and look at the market balance," Mazrouei told reporters.

He said the UAE would not be contributing to fresh cuts as it was already producing well below its capacity.

"There’s a bigger thing… I’m seeing a lack of investments in many countries. We will have to invite maybe newcomers to come and join the group. The more countries we have... the easier the job... to ensure that the world has enough oil in the future," Mazrouei said.

"Imagine if we had 60% of the producers or 80% of the producers... We will definitely do a better job."

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News round-up, July 4, 2023

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown. 〰️

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The news of the day…

According to Spiegel, the German foreign intelligence agency (BND) is again under heavy “hailstorms…

The German foreign intelligence agency, the BND, has been under immense criticism lately due to its delayed awareness of the Wagner Group's coup attempt in Russia. There have been discussions about the removal of the current director, Bruno Kahl, as a result.

The German Chancellor's proposal to examine the issue has put the agency's performance under a "microscope", which has not occurred in a considerable time.

The BND's failures have been mounting, with the inability to anticipate the Taliban's assumption of power in Afghanistan, ignoring warnings about Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine, and the recent espionage case of Carsten L. Despite the warning signs, Bruno Kahl decided to travel to Kyiv on the eve of the invasion, only to be confronted with the harsh reality of war upon awakening.

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Most read…

China Restricts Exports of Two Minerals Used in High-Performance Chips

Industry executives see export ban on gallium and germanium as retaliation over chip curbs by U.S. and others

WSJ By James T. Areddy,  and Sha Hua,  July 4, 2023 

Venezuela Bans a Top Opposition Figure From Public Office

María Corina Machado, a longtime adversary of President Nicolás Maduro, was leading a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls

WSJ By  Juan Forero,  and Kejal Vyas, June 30, 2023 

Will “El Niño” on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?

Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather

The Guardian by Jonathan Watts, Julian Amani, Paul Scruton and Lucy Swan, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

The politics of the French riots

This is largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction.

POLITICO EU BY JOHN LICHFIELD, JULY 3, 2023

Another Stumble German Intelligence Criticized for Slow Reaction To Russian Coup Attempt

Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, is under fire for learning too late about the recent Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia. It's possible the agency's head could soon be out as a result of the late response, which many see as one too many.

Spiegel By Matthias Gebauer, Martin Knobbe, Marina Kormbaki, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 03.07.2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Chinese exporters of products and materials containing gallium and germanium will need to apply for special licenses as of August. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS

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China Restricts Exports of Two Minerals Used in High-Performance Chips

Industry executives see export ban on gallium and germanium as retaliation over chip curbs by U.S. and others

WSJ By James T. Areddy,  and Sha Hua,  July 4, 2023 

A solar farm in New Mexico. The U.S. has taken steps to reduce China’s dominance over the U.S. solar market. PHOTO: SUSAN MONTOYA BRYAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS

SINGAPORE—China set export restrictions on two minerals the U.S. says are critical to the production of semiconductors, missile systems and solar cells, a show of force ahead of economic talks between two rivals that increasingly set trade rules to achieve technological dominance.

The minerals—gallium and germanium—and more than three dozen related metals and other materials will be subject to unspecified export controls starting Aug. 1, Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday. Its statement referred to safeguarding national security and interests and said some future export applications would require review by the government’s top body, the State Council.

The China-U.S. rivalry increasingly features export restrictions tailored to slow the high-technology industries of the other nation. Trading complaints about such controls, which both sides say are designed to protect national security, have featured in a return to high-level talks between the two governments. More focus on the issue is likely when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits Beijing later this week and if Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo makes an expected trip in the coming months.

Tech Companies Depend on China for Rare Earths. Can That Change?

Neodymium is critical to making the wheels of a Tesla spin or creating sound in Apple’s AirPods, and China dominates the mining and processing of this rare-earth element. So the U.S. and its allies are building their own supply chain. Photo illustration: Clément Bürge/WSJ

“The U.S. Commerce Department had no immediate comment.

The U.S. in October halted exports to China of equipment used to produce more technically advanced semiconductors and has leaned on allies like South Korea and the Netherlands to do the same. Beijing warned its companies to consider the national-security implications of exports to the U.S. It banned the use of products made by Micron, the U.S.’s biggest memory-chip maker, in its critical information-infrastructure firms, while warning American allies to reject what it terms Cold War-type protectionism peddled by Washington.

Complexities bind the U.S. and China in production of wares such as semiconductors in ways that make it difficult for either side to act too rashly, a kind of technology-sector equivalent of mutually assured destruction. The Biden administration is trying to entice producers such as Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to expand in the U.S. but getting them to turn their back on China appears unlikely.

The new restrictions on gallium and germanium affect specialty metals produced and refined primarily in China, giving it leverage in some cutting-edge sectors. Neither gallium or germanium is traded in large quantities. Both nevertheless have uses important to particular industries, especially production of semiconductors that are often designed in and for use in the U.S. even if made in Taiwan and South Korea.

“This measure will have an immediate ripple effect on the semiconductor industry, especially with regards to high-performance chips,” said Alastair Neill, board member of the Critical Mineral Institute who has nearly 30 years of experience with China’s metals industry. 

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Estimated production of unrefined gallium in 2022

——China: 540,000 ——Rest of the world: 10,000 kilograms.

Note: Other countries that produce unrefined gallium are Russia, Japan, South Korea and Ukraine.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey

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China has smarted at U.S. efforts to slow the advance of its semiconductor manufacturing, which Washington warns is ultimately aimed at strengthening Beijing’s military. The Biden administration has made it difficult for China to buy lithography machines needed to produce high-performance chips, and last week scored a win when the Dutch government said its equipment makers like ASML would need government permission to ship some products abroad.

Chinese chip makers and suppliers who gathered in Shanghai for a recent industry event were in a grim but defiant mood following a Wall Street Journal report that the Biden administration is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial-intelligence chips to China.

Industry analysts see a pattern of tit-for-tat. “If you don’t send high-end chips to China, China will respond by not sending you the high-performance elements you need for those chips,” said Neill, who added that Beijing usually tries to match U.S. trade measures with a countermeasure of equal proportion.

Both gallium and germanium appear among 50 minerals that the U.S. Geological Survey deems “critical,” meaning they are essential to the economic or national security of the U.S. and have a supply chain vulnerable to disruption. 

Gallium, a soft, silvery metal at room temperature, is a key ingredient in a fast-growing class of semiconductors used in phone chargers and electric vehicles, among a growing range of commercial and military applications. About 53% of the U.S.’s gallium was imported from China between 2018 and 2021, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, with imports decreasing substantially in 2019 after the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on Chinese gallium. There is no U.S. production of unrefined gallium.

Gallium arsenide—a compound with arsenic—is widely used for high-performance chips because it is more resistant to heat and moisture as well as more conductive than silicon. At the moment, “no effective substitutes exist for GaAs in these applications,” noted the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey on gallium. 

The U.S. military relies on gallium nitride, a related product, for its properties for efficiently transmitting power deployed in the most advanced radars under development. It is also being used in the replacement for the Patriot missile-defense system being made by RTX, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies. Beijing previously had said it would seek to prevent a unit of RTX, which didn’t respond to a question about gallium, from using Chinese products in its military technology.  

An arm of Raytheon Technologies is on Beijing’s ‘unreliable entities list,’ which prohibits companies from export and import activities related to China. PHOTO: PASCAL ROSSIGNOL/REUTERS

In 2016, the U.S. blocked the proposed purchase by Chinese investors of a controlling stake in an auto and light-emitting diode components business unit of the Dutch electronics company Philips valued at $2.8 billion over concerns of the dual-use potential for gallium nitride.

Sales of chips using gallium nitride were $2.47 billion last year, according to Precedence Research, but are expected to climb to $19.3 billion by 2030. Chips produced with gallium-arsenide are expected to grow from $1.4 billion last year to $3.4 billion in 2030, according to Research and Markets.

Germanium, a lustrous, grayish-white metal, can make silicon a faster conductor and is often used in making fiber-optic systems and solar cells, including those used in space applications.

To trade experts, China’s new export restrictions on the commodities is a reminder of an earlier export-quota system Beijing imposed for rare earths, another group of metals produced mostly in China that have prized qualities for high-technology manufacturers. The U.S. in 2014 won a case at the World Trade Organization that argued China’s export limits on rare earths, as well as tungsten and molybdenum, were inconsistent with international trade rules.

Later, in 2019, Chinese leader Xi Jinping made a visit to one of the country’s key rare-earth production zones. To analysts, the visit appeared to be a warning Beijing could disrupt trade in the minerals, days after the Trump administration made it illegal to supply some U.S. technology to Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei Technologies.

Export controls allow Beijing to target individual companies as well as broader sectors of particular industries and make decisions based on geopolitical considerations, said Paul Triolo, senior vice president for China and technology-policy lead at the Washington-based advisory firm Albright Stonebridge Group.

Chinese exporters of products and materials containing gallium and germanium will need to apply for special licenses as of August. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS

China has signaled to the U.S. that it is interested in establishing a new bilateral dialogue on export controls, and the latest move could provide Beijing with more leverage in coming discussions with Washington, he said.

The controls announced Monday follow a pattern of quieter restrictions on American access to other commodities produced in China, such as materials known as super-abrasives that also are used in high-technology industries, according to Nazak Nikakhtar, a trade lawyer who formerly held roles related to national security and commodity supply chains at the Commerce Department and is now a partner at Washington law firm Wiley Rein LLP. “It’s really arm-flexing, to remind the U.S. how strong they are and to remind us how much control they have over our supply chains,” she said.

While Nikakhtar said she doesn’t think the gallium and germanium restrictions are designed to be a bargaining chip for the coming talks with American officials, she said they should seize the opportunity to remind their Chinese counterparts that Washington can close loopholes on its current export restrictions and that it has the power to apply economic sanctions. 

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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María Corina Machado, pictured in Caracas last week among supporters, is a conservative politician and activist. PHOTO: GABY ORAA/BLOOMBERG NEWS / Editing by Germán & Co

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Venezuela Bans a Top Opposition Figure From Public Office

María Corina Machado, a longtime adversary of President Nicolás Maduro, was leading a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls

WSJ By  Juan Forero,  and Kejal Vyas, June 30, 2023 

María Corina Machado, pictured in Caracas last week among supporters, is a conservative politician and activist. PHOTO: GABY ORAA/BLOOMBERG NEWS

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s regime on Friday barred opposition figure María Corina Machado, a conservative who had been drawing energetic crowds on the campaign trail, from running in presidential elections expected next year.

“I’m not sorry nor surprised nor worried,” Machado, a 55-year-old politician and activist, said via text message to The Wall Street Journal shortly after the ruling. “We knew that they were going to do it. It is a big mistake on their part.”

The decision by the Comptroller’s Office dims already faint prospects for free and fair elections in 2024. Biden administration officials have repeatedly said that the Maduro government must organize democratic elections for Washington to lift sanctions against regime officials and the country’s lifeblood oil industry. 

Maduro’s government has barred other politicians who had been popular in polls from campaigning and holding office, most notably Leopoldo López and Henrique Capriles, a two-time presidential candidate. The regime has often made vague assertions of irregularities or corruption for prohibiting politicians from running.

Popular opposition politican Leopoldo López was banned from running for presidcent. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

“We condemn the prohibition of @MariaCorinaYa,” Juanita Goebertus, director of the Americas Division of Human Rights Watch, the New York-based group, said on her Twitter account. “This decision violates her political rights and those of the Venezuelan people. The international community, especially those governments with access to Maduro, should request that this very serious decision be reversed.

In prohibiting Machado from holding office for 15 years, the Comptroller’s Office cited alleged corruption and her support for a U.S.-backed Venezuelan opposition movement that has used economic sanctions to dislodge Maduro. Machado, who is well-known among politicians in Washington and other capitals, has been open about supporting efforts to unseat Maduro.

Machado’s actions are an “affront to public ethics, administrative morality, the state of law, peace and sovereignty,” the Comptroller’s office said in a five-page letter dated June 27 and made public by a pro-regime lawmaker.  The letter accuses Machado of working with the opposition to cut off the Maduro administration’s access to foreign bank accounts and overseas assets, including U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum Corp., and gold bullion at the Bank of England, leaving them vulnerable to creditors that are seeking to recoup billions of dollars in debts from Caracas. 

In recent polls, Machado, who comes from a wealthy family of industrialists, has led a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls ahead of October primaries the opposition had scheduled to pick a single presidential candidate. The Caracas consulting firm Poder y Estrategia said a poll done in early June showed that Machado had the support of 57% of respondents who planned to cast a ballot in the primaries.

María Corina Machado signed an application to be eligible to run for president last week in Caracas. PHOTO: CARLOS BECERRA/GETTY IMAGES

Machado will still be able to participate in the primaries because the opposition is organizing them independently of the regime-controlled National Electoral Council. But Friday’s ban will prohibit Machado from facing off against the regime’s eventual candidate, who is widely expected to be Maduro. A date for the presidential election has yet to be set.

The government’s prohibition against running underscores its determination to avoid an opening for an opposition politician to win in an election, said Eduardo Battistini, president of Venezuela’s First Justice Party in exile.

“Today, by barring Maria Corina Machado as they have dozens of opponents, they are removing those who propose change in Venezuela,” he said.

Machado has been barred by the Maduro regime from leaving the country since 2015, when the Comptroller first banned her from political office for 12 months. Friday’s announcement increased that ban to 15 years. 

In recent weeks, she had been campaigning around the country, including in the cattle-growing heartland of Venezuela, long a Socialist Party stronghold. She pledged to dismantle a state-led economic model that has driven the oil-rich nation into financial ruin. And unlike other opposition politicians, Machado also said she wanted to privatize state energy giant Petróleos de Venezuela SA.

Pollsters and political analysts say that Venezuela’s opposition movement has faced widespread voter apathy since its leadership voted in December to remove Juan Guaidó as its leader. The U.S. and its allies had since 2019 recognized him as Venezuela’s legitimate president because they had deemed the 2018 election that Maduro had won as fraudulent.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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People walk through a dust storm in Prayagraj, India. Countries across the world are experiencing record temperatures. Photograph: Sanjay Kanojia/AFP/ Editing by Germán & Co

Will “El Niño” on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?

Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather

The Guardian by Jonathan Watts, Julian Amani, Paul Scruton and Lucy Swan, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

“Very unusual”, “worrying”, “terrifying”, and “bonkers”; the reactions of veteran scientists to the sharp increase in north Atlantic surface temperatures over the past three months raises the question of whether the world’s climate has entered a more erratic and dangerous phase with the onset of an El Niño event on top of human-made global heating.

Since April, the warming appears to have entered a new trajectory. Meanwhile the area of global sea ice has dropped by more than 1 million sq km below the previous low.

“If a few decades ago, some people might have thought climate change was a relatively slow-moving phenomenon, we are now witnessing our climate changing at a terrifying rate,” said Prof Peter Stott, who leads the UK Met Office’s climate monitoring and attribution team. “As the El Niño builds through the rest of this year, adding an extra oomph to the damaging effects of human-induced global heating, many millions of people across the planet and many diverse ecosystems are going to face extraordinary challenges and unfortunately suffer great damage.”

The El Niño climate pattern emerges when normal easterly winds weaken and warm water spreads across the whole Pacific.

The immediate impact is on marine life which is unaccustomed to waters that have warmed by several degrees in some areas. More worrying still, the extra energy in the ocean, which is the world’s biggest heat absorber, may bring fiercer-than-usual storms, more destructive rain dumps and longer, hotter heatwaves.

When the extremes in the north Atlantic started to be registered in April, the hope was that this would prove a temporary blip. In May, however, the average temperature in the region was the highest since records began in 1850. On 12 June, the climatologist Brian McNoldy stirred up a Twitter storm by calculating that, based on past data, there was a one in 256,0000 chance of this happening.

This anomaly prompted some commentators to wonder if something unforeseen – a black swan event – was taking place in the climate system. Calmer heads explained that it was more likely the result of El Niño and other natural factors being amplified by the greenhouse gas emissions from cars, factories and forest clearance.

Michael Mann, the presidential distinguished professor at the University of Pennsylvania, warned against “cherry picking” one set of data from one region over a relatively short period of time. It was more important, he said, to focus on the bigger picture: that burning fossil fuels was leading to more powerful and destructive hurricanes as well as providing the energy in the atmosphere to fuel extreme weather events, such as droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and floods. “We need to step back and look at the big picture. And it is alarming. The truth,” Mann said, “is bad enough.”

Katharine Hayhoe, the chief scientist with the Nature Conservancy and distinguished professor at Texas Tech University, said the north Atlantic temperature anomaly was the result of long-term loading of the climate system by 380 zeta joules of extra heat from human emissions of heat-trapping gases. “Nearly 90% of it has been going into the ocean; and it’s that gradual but inexorable increase in ocean heat content over time scales of decades rather than years that most worries climate scientists,” she said.

Around Ireland and the UK, coastal waters have been several degrees warmer than average for the time of year. Storms are now forming in the Atlantic earlier than normal, almost certainly as a result of the extra energy that is building up in the surface layer of the ocean. For the first time in June, there have been two simultaneous named tropical storms in the Atlantic, Bret and Cindy.

However, rather than seeing the north Atlantic spike as a one-off event, Richard Betts, the head of the climate impacts division at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter said: “We can expect this kind of event to happen more often – which of course is a major cause for concern. For me, these graphs [of Atlantic surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice] are like yet another hammer blow driving home the urgency of the climate situation we are now in.”

While human emissions and El Niño are likely to be the two main drivers of the north Atlantic spike, Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with the Breakthrough Institute, said more time was needed to disentangle other possible contributing factors, such as this year’s unusual dearth in Saharan dust levels, the large amount of stratospheric water vapour, the slowing of ocean circulation and the increasing frequency of El Niño events.

More broadly, Hausfather said, the trends were in line with climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that showed warming would accelerate in coming decades unless emissions were reduced. “I’m reluctant to say that it’s worse than we expected, because what we expect in a world where we don’t reduce emissions is bad enough.”

How much worse things get depends on the intensity and duration of this El Niño. Carlos Nobre, who is one of Brazil’s top climate scientists, said there was a 60% chance that this year’s El Niño would be a strong one. This would be “very very worrying” for the Amazon rainforest, which sustained some of its worst degradation during 2015-16, when an El Niño event caused the dry season to become longer and left the vegetation more vulnerable to fire.

Elsewhere in the world, the latest El Niño is already causing misery. In Mexico, several cities have recently broken the record for their hottest days ever, including Chihuahua, Nuevo Laredo and Monclova. Many cities in Texas are sweltering in their worst-ever heatwaves. The same is true in China, where more than 20 cities, including Shandong, Tianjin and Huairou have registered new peaks. In Europe, the Austrian town of Oberndorf sweltered in a freakishly hot midnight temperature of 36.1C, one of the continent’s highest-ever nighttime temperatures. In the Middle East, people are used to heat but they can normally expect some respite at high altitudes. That was not the case in Iran last week, when the temperature in Saravan hit 45C – one of the hottest days ever recorded at an elevation of more than 1,000m.

Many things are still uncertain. Scientists will not know for a couple of months how severe El Niño will be. Its wind-sheering effect could inhibit storm formation and help to balance out the pressure of the sea-level temperature. The north Atlantic heat spike is already showing signs that it may fade.

But there is no doubt among scientists that things will continue to get worse as long as greenhouse gases continue to rise and natural climate stabilisers, such as the Amazon, continue to be cut down.

Hayhoe said the trends made her feel “even more concerned and even more motivated to ensure I’m doing everything I can to help people understand the profound risks climate change poses to them and how each of us can be a powerful advocate for climate action”.

“It makes me feel sad and anxious,” said Stott. “Sad for the level of environmental destruction going on around the world, including the continuing destruction of the Amazon rainforest. And anxious for how people are going to cope if this carries on much longer, not just in far-away places that are already very hot and dry, but here in the UK where fires, flash floods and droughts are getting more and more frequent and intense. It isn’t a secure and sustaining future to look forward to. I still hope a turning point can be reached such that greenhouse gas emissions do start to reduce rapidly. And I know that this can be done without devastating our quality of life, quite the opposite in fact.”

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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A French firefighter looks at a burning car in Floirac on the outskirts of Bordeaux, south-western France | Philippe Lopez/AFP/ Editing by Germán & Co

The politics of the French riots

This is largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction.

POLITICO EU BY JOHN LICHFIELD, JULY 3, 2023

John Lichfield is a former foreign editor of the Independent and was the newspaper’s Paris correspondent for 20 years.

Beware of those who offer a simple explanation of the riots that have exploded in multi-racial suburbs across France.

These are not, for the most part, political riots — although they are influenced by, and will dangerously inflame, the poisonously divided politics of France.

They are not religious riots. Many of the very young rioters may have a sense of besieged Muslim identity, but they are driven by  anger rather than their religion. This is an insurrection, not an intifada.

They are not, properly speaking, truly race riots. The great majority of the many millions of hard-working residents of the racially mixed suburbs which surround French cities are not involved.

Rather, they are the main victims of the destruction of cars, buses, trams, schools, libraries, shops and social centers which began after a 17-year-old boy was shot dead by a traffic cop in Nanterre, just west of Paris, last Tuesday. Parents and other adults are now beginning (belatedly) to try to contain this explosion of violence by young men and boys as young as 12.

The riots are, in a sense, anti-France; but they are also, in part, mimetically French. Grievances go more rapidly to the street in France than in other countries. The worst excesses of the largely white, provincial Yellow Vests movement in 2018-19 came close in blind violence to what we have seen in the last week.

The riots are, for sure, anti-police and anti-authority.

Young men of African and North African origin are much more likely to be stopped by French police than young white men. Seventeen people, mostly of African or North African origin, have been shot dead in the last 18 months after refusing to obey police orders to halt their cars.

The last big explosion in the suburbs, or banlieues, lasted for three weeks in October-November 2005. The new eruption shows some signs of abating after only six days but has already crossed new boundaries.

The 2005 riots were confined to the suburbs themselves. There were attacks on buildings and public transport but little direct confrontation with police. There was almost no looting and pillaging.

On this occasion, police have been attacked with fireworks, Molotov cocktails and shotguns. Shops and shopping centers have been raided. The rioting has pierced the invisible barrier between the inner suburbs and prosperous French cities — although a threatened attack on the Champs Elysées in Paris on Saturday night came to little.

Protestors flee from an exploding firework on a street in Nice, south-eastern France early July 2, 2023 | Valery Hache/AFP via Getty Images

The opportunistic looting appears mostly to be the work of the very young. The more targeted violence — including an attack by a blazing car on the home of a mayor in the south Paris suburbs on Saturday night — is more organized and more obscurely political.

There are convincing reports of the involvement of the ultra-left, mostly white, Black Bloc movement which has tried to establish links with suburban youth in recent years.

But this remains largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of even local forms of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction between disaffected young men in suburbs and towns across France. 

The other great and menacing difference with 2005 is the national political background. Eighteen years ago, France was  a country dominated by the traditional parties of the center-right and center-left. No prominent politicians encouraged the riots. Few sought to profit from them by suggesting that France faced racial or religious civil war.

Now French politics is split three ways between a radical left, President Emmanuel Macron’s muddled, reformist center and a hard and far right that thinks in explicitly racial terms.

The hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and some of his closest allies have infuriated even other left-wing politicians by refusing to condemn the riots, even the looting. “I don’t call for calm, I call for justice,” Mélenchon said (despite the fact that the policeman who inexplicably shot 17-year-old Nahel last Tuesday has already been charged with homicide).

Meanwhile, a powerful but divided far right is pressing Macron to crack down violently on the rioters (despite the fact that another death, however accidental, could send the riots into an uncontrollable new dimension).

The teenagers on the streets are almost all French — not immigrants. And yet Marine Le Pen’s rival Eric Zemmour — echoed by editorials in the usually more careful center-right Le Figaro — has spoken of a “war” with “foreign enclaves in our midst.”

This inflammatory language is not new. Le Pen, Zemmour and others habitually refuse to recognize that the multi-racial suburbs contain millions of hard-working people — mostly French-born — without whom the prosperous cities could not survive.  

They also refuse to recognize the substantial evidence of brutality and racial discrimination by the French police in their admittedly thankless work in the banlieues.

The boy shot dead in Nanterre was not yet born at the time of the 2005 riots. A new generation of young people has grown up in the last 18 years in the suspicion, or belief, that much of the rest of France will never accept them as French.

Many of those French people will look at the events of the last week and their prejudices and fears will be confirmed or deepened.

The riots will abate in time. Over €4 billion has already been spent to improve life in the banlieues in the last two decades. More will doubtless be found to try to reverse the orgy of self-harm of the last week.

 It is harder to see what can reverse the spiral of suspicion, misunderstanding, rejection and fear.

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The BND's headquarters in Berlin: Germany's foreign intelligence agency is under fire. Foto: Jörg Carstensen/ picture alliance/ Editing by Germán & Co

Another Stumble German Intelligence Criticized for Slow Reaction To Russian Coup Attempt

Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, is under fire for learning too late about the recent Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia. It's possible the agency's head could soon be out as a result of the late response, which many see as one too many.

Spiegel By Matthias Gebauer, Martin Knobbe, Marina Kormbaki, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 03.07.2023

The BND's headquarters in Berlin: Germany's foreign intelligence agency is under fire.

Foto: Jörg Carstensen / picture alliance

It was business as usual for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz when he appeared on a national political interview lasts Wednesday and was asked about the country's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, and its response to the internal Russian power struggle. The chancellor spoke quietly, with deliberation, as he always does. Addressing the recent uprising of the Wagner Group mercenaries in Russia, he said that the BND "did not, of course, know beforehand" about events that were about to unfold.

“In light of U.S. media reports that the CIA had learned about Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans well before the escalation, the chancellor said that a closer look needs to be taken at the flow of information among allies. "We will all have to discuss that together," he said.

It sounded as if Scholz was doing his best to protect the BND. But insiders within the intelligence community were startled by the chancellor's words. The statement that the BND "of course" knew nothing could also be interpreted as cynicism – or that the chancellor has reduced his expectations of the agency to zero. It is, of course, part of the job of an intelligence service to catch developments like what happened just over a week ago as early as possible.

The chancellor's suggestion that they would now have to discuss things was also carefully noted. Because it would mean that the BND's performance would be coming under the microscope - a place it hasn't been recently. Ultimately, agency head Bruno Kahl may even find himself in the hot seat.

The impetus for the chancellor's concealed displeasure came from two press reports in recent days. "How the German government was taken by surprise by the Wagner revolt," DER SPIEGEL wrote as events unfolded. "Caught cold again," read the headline in the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.

The German government initially tried to contain the damage. Of course, the BND had already informed the Chancellery about the events on Friday, meaning one day before the advance of Prigozhin's troops on Moscow dominated the news broadcasts.

First Information Obtained in Mid-June

Meanwhile, the BND also tried to water down critique. On Tuesday morning, a high-ranking security official commented on the matter at a symposium in Berlin. The meeting of dozens of representatives from politics and business took place under the Chatham House Rule, according to which discussion participants are not to be identified by name afterward.

The representative speaking on behalf of the agency saw no reason for criticism. Of course, he said, the German government had already been informed several times about the tensions between Wagner chief Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. He said they may not have been aware of the the march on Moscow weeks in advance – "but neither had the Americans."

By then, the U.S. media had long since begun reporting that the intelligence services of the United States may very well have possessed such information. The Washington Post reported that the initial information began to emerge in mid-June. According to other media, selected politicians in the U.S. Congress along with high-ranking military and government officials, known collectively as the Gang of Eight, had already been briefed on Wednesday. On Friday, June 23, the intelligence services briefed the White House.

And Germany's BND? Initial attempts to shield the agency ultimately failed. Last Tuesday, BND headquarters issued an order to thoroughly review its own knowledge and all information provided by the intelligence services of friendly countries in advance. And security policy experts in the parties in Germany's government coalition began discussing whether the president of the BND would be able to keep his job.

Bruno Kahl, 60, became head of the service in 2016 after his predecessor, Gerhard Schindler, was removed from the position unexpectedly. Schindler had actually survived the scandal involving files from the U.S. spy agency NSA before then-Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU ) suddenly sent him into temporary retirement.

Kahl's mission at the time had been to reform the service and keep it scandal-free. Internally, however, the complaint quickly arose that it was becoming increasingly difficult to achieve good results at all because of the many new control mechanisms. International partner services noted with pity that the BND was "quite obviously shackled" by German legislation, as one foreign intelligence chief put it.

Indeed, the Wager Group uprising wasn't the first time recently that the BND had been accused of cluelessness.

By the time the Taliban seized power  in Afghanistan in 2021, for example, BND analysts had been warning for several years of the country's approaching collapse, and even predicted the Taliban's seizure of power eight months before Kabul fell. But when it actually came to pass, the BND was caught flat-footed. Two years later, that failure is still a focus of a parliamentary investigative committee in the German Bundestag.

BND experts also long dismissed warnings from American and British services about specific plans by Russia to invade Ukraine. It wasn't until a few days before the February 2022 invasion that the concerns of their Anglo-Saxon colleagues slowly began to take hold in Berlin as well. But that didn't stop BND President Kahl from flying to Kyiv on the eve of the Russian invasion – only to wake up to war.

Then, in December, police arrested BND employee Carsten L. on suspicions he served as a Russian spy. It subsequently came to light that the agent had passed security checks despite his apparently right-wing extremist views – and had even been granted responsibility for the security checks of other BND employees.

"The BND's information base on Russia's inner workings was obviously thin."

Ulrich Lechte, member of the Free Democratic Party

Some of these mishaps can be explained, dismissed or glossed over by the BND. Speaking to parliament, Kahl claimed that Putin's invasion had "not really surprised" the BND. And in the case of Carsten L., the BND pointed out that the damage was insignificant given that the double agent  had been uncovered at such an early stage. But such explanations can only be used so many times.

"Slowly, we're beginning to be surprised by events too often," says Ralf Stegner of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the chairman of the Afghanistan investigation committee in the German parliament.

"The BND's information on Russia's inner workings was obviously thin," says Ulrich Lechte, foreign policy spokesman for the parliamentary group of the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) in the Bundestag. "There is no other explanation for the fact that no information whatsoever was provided to us in parliament about the imminent uprising of Prigozhin and the Wagner group."

"The situation is definitely frustrating," says Sara Nanni, a member of parliament with the Green Party. She also says it is far too easy to cast blame on the BND. All of this is "also a question of resources," she says.

Should the BND have been aware of Prigozhin's plans at an early stage? "This kind of thing doesn't happen overnight," says a former senior CIA official who had jurisdiction over Russia. "There's troop movement and equipment relocation, communications – you pick up on a lot of things."

In fact, and this is part of the assessment, there are major differences between American intelligence services and the BND. The CIA has many more employees than the German foreign intelligence service, the worldwide interception of signals intelligence is conducted by another agency, the NSA. The BND tries to cover everything in one agency: the monitoring of communications, managing human sources and conducting research into publicly accessible sources of information. Employees also produce extensive analyses. At many other intelligence services, those efforts are considered a waste of time; whereas at the BND, they are considered to be the agency's paramount work.

For some time now, the strengths of German intelligence have been primarily in technical reconnaissance and liaison – the art of asking friendly intelligence agencies to share their insights.

In Washington, London and possibly also in Paris, information was apparently available again this time. Only, it would seem that it didn't find its way to Berlin. When the partners were asked about the criticism, they reportedly said that the U.S. media coverage had been exaggerated. That the information that had been shared with Congress had been more of a general nature. Some experts are even claiming that the narrative of the Americans' detailed knowledge of secret goings-on within Moscow's power apparatus was intended primarily for Russian ears – and that the U.S. media had allowed themselves to be harnessed for that strategy. Or was Berlin deliberately left out?

At any rate, the Germans' skeptical attitude in the run-up to Putin's invasion of Ukraine has not been forgotten on the other side of the English Channel and the Atlantic. As if to prove the point, the U.S. news network CNN reported  last week that the U.S. had shared its detailed intelligence only with select allies, including the United Kingdom. CNN reported it had been "extremely detailed" information.

In fact, some information had been made available to the BND. Prior to the coup attempt, for example, Berlin had received several indications that tensions had been building between Wagner boss Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the BND was unable to verify that information independently. It's also unlikely it received the tip that Prigozhin would call for a march on Moscow.

The service interpreted satellite images provided by the United States, according to which Wagner's troops were gathering near Rostov-on-Don, as being consistent with the mercenaries' announced return to their bases. The fact that they were actually preparing to seize Rostov apparently hadn't been apparent to the BND analysts.

The discontent over the latest developments has since spread to the German ministries controlled by the partners in the coalition government. According to reports, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party expressed irritation that she had participated in a meeting with high-ranking BND representatives as recently as Friday – and that the power struggle between the Wagner mercenary group and the Kremlin hadn't even been broached.

The Foreign Ministry has also expressed displeasure that even the sparse information it does receive from the BND must be painstakingly elicited from the agency. Sources say the Foreign Ministry learned through their own analysis of Russian Telegram groups that Prigozhin's private army was on a confrontation course with the Kremlin. One of Baerbock's staffers apparently then asked the BND what was going on.

It was not until much later in the evening that a response from the intelligence officials arrived – with rather sparse explanations that didn't go beyond the level of what could be inferred from public sources, according to Foreign Ministry officials.

To be fair, even in normal times, officials in the Foreign Ministry don't think very highly of the BND. But officials inside the Defense Ministry also seemed displeased about the situation. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of the Social Democrats first learned of the attempted Wagner coup on the morning of Saturday, June 24. From news agencies.

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News round-up, July 3, 2023

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown. 〰️

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Quote of the day…

“International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter

Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies

The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

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Most read…

Joe Biden’s $400 Billion Man

Jigar Shah, who runs the Energy Department’s loan program, is trying to hand out a lot of money for green-technology projects, while navigating an unforgiving political environment

WSJ Scott Patterson, and Amrith Ramkumar, July 2, 2023 

Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby…

“The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.

The Washington Post By Fredrick Kunkle and Kostiantyn Khudov, July 2, 2023 

Factbox: Japan aims to become major offshore wind energy producer

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) have made a firm commitment to generate 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy in four specified regions. They have substantially advanced in achieving this goal by successfully concluding the second phase of offshore wind tender processes. This statement highlights the Japanese government's dedication to achieving sustainable economic development and reducing emissions.

Reuters By Katya Golubkova and Yuka Obayashi / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter

Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies

The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Jigar Shah, center, with colleagues in his Washington, D.C., office. With new funding, ‘the floodgates have really opened,’ said a former leader of the program. ALYSSA SCHUKAR FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL / editing by Germán & Co

Joe Biden’s $400 Billion Man

Jigar Shah, who runs the Energy Department’s loan program, is trying to hand out a lot of money for green-technology projects, while navigating an unforgiving political environment

WSJ Scott Patterson, and Amrith Ramkumar, July 2, 2023 

Jigar Shah is living an investor’s dream, one with more strings attached than a symphony orchestra.

Shah has $400 billion of government funds to pour into businesses touting green-energy projects. But he has to do it under the eye of critical lawmakers, cautious bureaucrats and the White House, which has already clashed with him on the politics of his lending juggernaut. Losses are likely and will be frowned on by Congress.

The line for Shah’s cash stretches to 150 companies seeking $127.7 billion in loans, ranging from new companies with unproven products to giants such as General Motors and PG&E, the California utility blamed for deadly wildfires. Funneling that much money to climate startups in a short time would be near impossible. Shah has begun writing bigger checks, including a record $9.2 billion commitment to a Ford joint venture making batteries in Tennessee and Kentucky.

The source of Shah’s financial firepower is the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office, an overlooked piece of the Biden administration’s strategy to address climate change. Largely quiescent for almost a decade, the office is designed to finance businesses that are important to the country’s energy transition but unable to borrow from traditional lenders, often because their technology is seen as too risky or because the terms are too onerous.

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Resurrected

The Loan Programs Office has made several commitments recently after years of stagnation.

LPO project portfolio

Ford/SK, Battery JV, $9.2 billion, 2024; GM/LG, 2.5 billion, 2023; Li-Cycle, $375 million, 2022; Monolith, 1.04 billion, 2021; Sunnova, $3 billion, Commitments under Jigar Shah, 2020.

*Date of initial issuance shown.  The project has received several rounds of funding.
Note: Data through late June. Date of commitment or loan issuance shown. Excludes projects that closed loans but received no disbursement for various reasons.

Sources: Loan Programs Office; the companies

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“We would absolutely look at investing alongside them,” said Jehangir Vevaina, a managing partner at Brookfield Asset Management who helps oversee the private firm’s $15 billion energy transition fund. That fund, one of the largest of its kind, typically invests in a company’s equity, which can become less risky when government loans give businesses a stamp of approval, as well as lower borrowing costs than commercial banks.

Climate-related provisions in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act gave Shah’s office a windfall, multiplying its lending capacity 10-fold. That pile of cash is at least 20 times as big as most private green-energy funds, giving Shah and the Loan Programs Office a major role in shaping the American energy landscape.

That is how Shah found himself in early 2021 calling hundreds of clean-energy executives to pitch the loans his office could provide. Primary targets were clean-energy startups that had raised at least $100 million in equity financing. He also wooed big businesses with the resources to pay back large loans.

Some were reluctant to apply, worried about the complicated approval process and the risks of taking a government loan. Shah, eager to get funds out the door, can be impatient. In September, he pressed a startup company that has a plan for recycling batteries to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars from the federal government to construct a plant.

The company’s chief executive, Ajay Kochhar, was hesitant, unsure how quickly it could repay. “Get your ass to Pittsburgh,” where a clean-energy conference was about to start, Shah told the executive, according to people familiar with the conversation.

At a coffee shop soon after, Shah told Kochhar, of Li-Cycle Holdings, that its recycling plant could easily generate enough revenue for repayment. Five months later, the two announced a $375 million federal loan.

Shah’s office is “the clean-energy bank of the United States,” said Peter Davidson, who led it from 2013 to 2015. With its burst of funding, “the floodgates have really opened,” he said.

The loan program is part of the reason the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits and spending represent one of the largest outlays of taxpayer-financed industrial stimulus since the 1930s New Deal.

In early June, Shah’s office committed $850 million to startup battery maker Kore Power. The loan would fund what the company calls the KOREplex, a giant battery manufacturing facility in the desert about 35 miles west of Phoenix.

Shortly after, the Loan Programs Office announced the record commitment to the Ford battery venture. The $9.2 billion agreement is bigger than the $5.9 billion Ford borrowed from the office starting in 2009, when it was struggling through the financial crisis.

Solyndra PTSD

Hanging over the Loan Programs Office’s every move is what Shah called “Solyndra PTSD.” Despite the office’s successes, which include backing Tesla, it remains dogged by a busted loan to solar-panel startup Solyndra.

Solyndra failed in 2011 after China flooded the market with low-price panels. In addition, an investigation by the Energy Department’s inspector general found Solyndra had misrepresented facts and omitted key information in getting the loan. The $535 million loan that went sour made staffers cautious, borrowers nervous and critics of the program aggressive.

The Energy Department’s loan office has come under fire in the past, most notably for its botched funding to Solyndra, a solar-panel manufacturer that went bust in 2011. PHOTO: ALYSSA SCHUKAR FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R., Wash.), chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has called the expanded funding “Solyndra on steroids” and said the Inflation Reduction Act’s new spending and lending “has heightened the risk for waste, fraud and abuse.” She said her committee is in regular contact with the loan office.

Shah’s first loan deal after taking over in 2021 was a $1 billion commitment to Monolith, a company that aims to produce hydrogen from natural gas. The company’s technology will capture the carbon that the process yields and turn it into a material for everyday products such as tires. Clean hydrogen is an alternative to oil and gas. 

Several members of Shah’s staff worried the deal was too risky, people familiar with the matter said. Shah argued it was safe because it required Monolith to set aside revenue and meet rigorous requirements before getting the money, such as showing its production process would work at scale. Monolith hasn’t yet met them.

Last summer, Monolith raised more than $300 million in equity from investors including BlackRock and NextEra Energy, the most valuable power company in the U.S.

Staff members raised concerns about a potential loan to a company called Syrah Resources, a producer of graphite, which is used in rechargeable batteries, people familiar with the matter said. Raw material for its Louisiana processing facility would come from a mine in Mozambique, the scene of terrorist attacks, raising concerns that disruptions would threaten Syrah’s project. Shah pushed ahead, on the grounds that the program was protected in the deal and the U.S. needed to lessen its dependence on China for graphite. The office issued a $102 million loan last summer.

When Shah supported granting a loan for an Occidental Petroleum project, White House officials told him it could backfire. The project involved removing carbon from the atmosphere via a new technology, then injecting it into the ground to extract more oil. Administration officials worried about a backlash from environmentalists, a person familiar with the discussion said.

Shah argued it was worth exploring as a way to develop carbon-removal technology. The loan application is still working its way through the office. Occidental’s first big carbon- removal plant is under construction. 

Despite having lived for decades around Washington, D.C., Shah seems more like a creature of Silicon Valley’s high-tech culture than a Beltway denizen. He co-founded a solar-energy company, SunEdison, in 2003 with a home-equity line of credit. It revolutionized the way businesses and homeowners paid for rooftop solar panels. Under its financing concept, which Shah drew up for a business-school class project at the University of Maryland, the panels are typically paid for over a 20-year stretch, in part with buyers’ savings from generating their own power, making the panels almost free in the long run.

Installations exploded, and SunEdison became North America’s largest rooftop-solar provider. Shah left in 2008, the company was sold in 2009. Years later it went bankrupt after an aggressive growth strategy backfired.

Shah co-founded clean-energy investment firm Generate Capital about nine years ago. His effusive personality and list of contacts helped build Generate into one of the largest clean-energy investment firms. At Generate’s San Francisco office he would hold court in a cavernous space known as the “Jigar-torium.”

When approached by the Biden transition team about leading the Loan Programs Office, Shah was reluctant. On a podcast he used to co-host called, “The Energy Gang,” he once called the office “irredeemable” because it was doing so little. 

Patti Poppe, now the CEO of PG&E, listened to the podcast in the mornings while exercising on her treadmill. “It would make me run faster because he’d make me mad,” she said. Shah often criticized utilities for moving too slowly. Poppe eventually invited Shah to talk to the management team at her previous job in Michigan and became convinced the industry needed to be more aggressive.

At PG&E, she is seeking a roughly $7 billion loan to upgrade and bury the utility’s outdated power lines, to reduce wildfire risk and keep up with rising electricity demand driven by electric vehicles.

‘Damn you!’

Before Shah took the job, his Generate colleagues told him accepting was a dumb idea unless he could make the office more efficient, he said in an interview at his Energy Department office, clad in his blue fleece vest and Stan Smith tennis shoes.

He outlined his demands, including provisions that would make it easier to lend to companies in the electric-vehicle supply chain. On a call with DOE officials, they agreed to all of his conditions, he said.

“I was like, ‘Damn you!’ ” he recalled.

He tripled the agency’s staff to roughly 250 and recruited debt experts from banks. He sought energy specialists such as Bill Magness, a former CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, that state’s power grid operator.

According to Magness, Shah invited him to meetings even before he agreed to join. “How could you not do it?” Shah told him, Magness said. Magness was a consultant for the office for a year before departing in 2022.

In April, Shah expanded on the rooftop-solar financing model he developed for his first company by improving access to loans for people with below-average credit scores. Through a $3 billion commitment to home-solar company Sunnova, the office would guarantee that even if some users default, many investors would be repaid. Shah is confident defaults will be low, and the backstop won’t be needed.

“If you have a normal government person coming into this spot, they’ll never think of something like that,” said Sunnova’s chief executive, John Berger.

The Loan Programs Office had largely been dormant since the second Obama term. The bulk of the office’s loans in the last decade went to utilities building the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, a nuclear power project in Georgia.

Shah’s tenure and the program’s aggressive lending could prove short-lived if Republicans win back the White House next year. In Congress, McMorris Rodgers has criticized the loan office’s high funding level and promised greater oversight. 

Shah says the government is more protected with today’s deals, through provisions that ensure the government will get some money back even if a borrower fails. The program has beefed up goals companies must meet before receiving funds.

The office’s default rate of 3% is comparable to the performance of loan portfolios of commercial banks, Shah has said. It has made money for the government over its lifetime.

All the loans need a series of approvals from a committee of senior Energy Department staff, as well as Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the White House Office of Management and Budget and the Treasury Department.

“If anyone can crack through some of the red tape, it’s a force of nature like Jigar,” said Scott Jacobs, who co-founded Generate Capital with Shah and one other person. “Yet I’m not sure anyone can get through all of the bureaucracy.”

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster.

These people live nearby…

Nadiya Hez, with her 1-year-old son, waits to fill her containers at a water truck last week in Tomakivka, Ukraine. Residents there have been without water since the Kakhovka dam breach earlier in June. (Heidi Levine for The Washington Post) / Editing by germán & co

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“The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.

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The Washington Post By Fredrick Kunkle and Kostiantyn Khudov, July 2, 2023 

TOMAKIVKA, Ukraine — The risk of a major disaster at the nearby Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant terrifies Nadiya Hez, who lives in an area that would probably take the brunt of any deadly radioactive fallout.

The nuclear plant has been in continual danger as Russian and Ukrainian troops trade fire in its vicinity, but the chance of a meltdown has increased sharply since the destruction of the Kakhovka dam just downstream. The June 6 breach unleashed a catastrophic flood and jeopardized the supply of water needed to cool the plant’s reactors and spent fuel.

But there have been so many horrors since Russia invaded last year that Hez and others in this Ukrainian town have responded to the threat of a nuclear disaster with a mix of dread and hardened fatalism.

Hez, who is a nurse, at least has iodine tablets on hand to mitigate the effects of radiation poisoning. After days of searching, she located a key to the root cellar outside their Soviet-era home that could serve as a crude fallout shelter for her, her husband and their 1-year-old son, Ihor, should radiation escape from the Russian-held nuclear power plant about 22 miles away. There has been little else to do except wait and focus on the daily hardships the war has already inflicted upon their lives.

“It’s horrible — I don’t even want to think about it,” Hez, 22, said while juggling her baby and several heavy water jugs from a charity’s roving tanker truck. The town’s municipal water system was knocked out when the dam went.

Warnings from Ukrainian officials and atomic energy experts about a potential disaster in southeastern Ukraine have gained urgency since the dam’s breach. Ukrainian officials accuse Russian forces of deliberately blowing up part of the dam, an allegation Moscow has denied.

What to know about Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

As far back as October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted that Russia would destroy the dam. Now, Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials have upped the tempo of warnings that Russian forces plan to sabotage the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest such facility in Europe.

Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, who heads Ukraine’s military intelligence, said through a spokesman that Russians have planted explosives next to four of the six reactors and mined the cooling pond used to supply water to chill the reactors and spent fuel.

“There is an extremely high risk of human error or, given the amount of explosives, an accidental detonation,” spokesman Andriy Yusov said.

On Friday, the military intelligence agency issued an ominous update, saying that the three Russian supervisors had evacuated and Ukrainian employees signed to work for the Russian state nuclear power conglomerate should depart by July 5. The report also said that personnel remaining behind had been told to “blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies.”

Earlier this week, Ihor Klymenko, who heads the Ministry of Internal Affairs, announced training exercises at all levels of government to deal with a possible nuclear disaster. These have included planning for evacuations within a certain radius of the plant, road closures and the creation of checkpoints to screen people for radiation exposure.

For residents unable to evacuate in time, officials have urged sheltering in place, making sure to shut off ventilation and air conditioners and seal up windows with dampened cloth and tape. When outdoors, he said, people should wear masks that can filter out airborne radioactive dust and other particles.

IAEA chief pushes plan to secure nuclear plant ahead of Ukraine offensive

Klymenko and other officials have also urged the public to remain calm — advice that many Ukrainians seem to have taken to heart, despite their country’s history with Chernobyl, the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, and nine years of violent conflict with Russia.

“People are already hardened, resilient,” said Yuriy Malashko, the head of the Zaporizhzhia region’s military administration.

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Water levels at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

Source: Energoatom / SAMUEL GRANADOS / THE WASHINGTON POST

Russian forces seized control of the nuclear power plant soon after President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion in February 2022. All six reactors have since been shut down.

The plant has had several close calls, including from repeated artillery strikes that cut the electric lines maintaining its cooling operations. It is now faced with a dwindling supply of water because of the dam breach.

After the construction of the plant in the 1980s, the reservoir of the Kakhovka dam was used to fill the holding pond cooling its reactors and spent fuel.

As of June 24, the pond’s water level stands at about 16 meters (52 feet) — only four meters above the minimum level necessary to cool the plant, said Olena Pareniuk, a senior researcher at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences who has studied nuclear power plant disasters.

The situation led the International Atomic Energy Agency’s general director to conduct an emergency inspection of the nuclear plant days after the dam breach.

In a statement posted on the IAEA’s website, Rafael Mariano Grossi said the cooling pond is being replenished with water from a discharge channel at a nearby coal-fired power plant and from a drainage system fed by underground water. At the current rate of evaporation — about four inches a day, Grossi estimated that the plant has enough water for “many weeks.” He also said he saw no evidence it had been mined.

Just as concerning, however, is the added pressure on remaining Ukrainian staff, Pareniuk said. Perhaps only 3,000 of its 11,000 employees are left to oversee its operations — “barely enough” to keep the plant safe in a shutdown state and far too few for an emergency.

“The threat of a terrorist attack is high,” said a Ukrainian employee still working at the plant, whom The Washington Post is not naming to protect his safety. He said the plant has already reduced the amount of water used to cool the reactors — the hottest of which, according to Pareniuk, is still at about 536 degrees Fahrenheit even after being shut down.

Ukrainian officials and atomic energy experts warn that without sufficient cooling, a reactor’s core could overheat, allowing the buildup of an explosive mixture of hydrogen gas and steam that could rupture the containment structure and blow dangerous amounts of radiation into the air. The reactors could melt down within 10 hours or two weeks without water, Budanov said.

What could happen then? Pareniuk and other experts said it is unlikely to be anything like Chernobyl, which blew when the reactor was in active operation. She said the most likely worst-case scenario could be something on scale with the Fukushima disaster in 2011, when fuel in three of the Japanese nuclear plant’s four reactors melted down following a massive earthquake and tsunami.

If so, a poisonous cloud could spread across Ukraine, contaminating its agricultural heartland and probably drifting over European neighbors with radioactive particles that increase the risk of certain cancers. Radioactive contamination is likely to reach the Dnieper River, too, flowing into the Black Sea. Depending on water currents, the contamination could touch every country along the Black Sea’s shores, Pareniuk said. As a bio-radiologist, she understands in detail what that could mean for her and her 4-year-old child, though they live far away, west of the capital, Kyiv.

“I’m terrified,” she said.

So are many people in this small town, located at the edge of the potential 20-mile exclusion zone around the plant. That’s the radius of the no man’s land that still exists around the Chernobyl plant.

Even before the dam break, Hez had already been through a lot. She gave birth in a hospital bunker in Nikopol as Russian artillery pounded the city. Constant shelling there forced her and her husband, Oleksiy, 23, to relocate here with their baby, where they subsist on state assistance as displaced people and the parents of a child — about $135 a month.

Both have been contacted by the military’s draft officials, one of whom told her she would have to put her baby in the care of his grandmother or someone else because her services are needed.

“It’s like a horror movie,” said Vita Lyashenko, 47, a nurse waiting in line with about 50 other people to collect drinking water in the center of town. Like others, she has been gathering rainwater, recycling water for household chores and going longer without showers since the municipal water system went down after the dam breach. She has also set aside iodine tablets, extra water and tape to seal her windows against radioactive fallout.

Olena Mykytiuk, 59, who lives on disability while caring for her ailing husband, said she, too, has iodine pills but isn’t sure whether she wants to take them. She also worries about what might happen to her chickens.

“We don’t know how to prepare ourselves for radiation,” Mykytiuk said. “We are watching the news, and we know all they need to do is to press a button.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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A wind turbine is seen behind a streetlamp in Yokohama, Japan August 9, 2017. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Factbox: Japan aims to become major offshore wind energy producer

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) have made a firm commitment to generate 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy in four specified regions. They have substantially advanced in achieving this goal by successfully concluding the second phase of offshore wind tender processes. This statement highlights the Japanese government's dedication to achieving sustainable economic development and reducing emissions.

Reuters By Katya Golubkova and Yuka Obayashi / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

TOKYO, June 30 (Reuters) - Japan plans to become one of the world's top offshore wind energy producers, joining the likes of China and the United Kingdom, as it makes the transition to a zero-emission economy while also seeking greater energy security.

Japanese companies have offshore wind assets from Taiwan to Belgium and UK but are yet to build large-scale farms at home.

On Friday, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) finished accepting proposals for the second major round of offshore wind tenders to build 1.8 gigawatt (GW) capacity in four areas. Below are main facts about Japan's offshore wind sector.

CAPACITY

Japan had 136 megawatt (MW) of offshore wind capacity installed as of 2022, a fraction compared to nearly 14 GW in UK and 31 GW in China, according to Global Wind Energy Council.

It aims to have 10 GW by 2030 and up to 45 GW operational by 2040 as it wants renewables to provide 36% to 38% of its electricity mix by the end of this decade from around 20% now and has targeted becoming carbon neutral by 2050.

A Marubeni-led consortium (8002.T) launched Japan's first large-scale commercial offshore wind operations at Noshiro Port (84 MW) and Akita Port (55 MW) in late 2022 and early 2023.

SECOND ROUND

The government's auction for another 1.8 GW of capacity, conducted over six months, concluded on June 30. The winners will be announced by the end of March 2024, though they could be named as early as December.

It was auctioning four areas, all with bottom-fixed structures, in total:

- Happo Town and Noshiro City in Akita Prefecture (356 MW)

- Oga City, Katagami City and Akita City in Akita Prefecture (336 MW)

- Murakami City and Tainai City in Niigata Prefecture (700 MW)

- Enoshima, Saikai City in Nagasaki Prefecture (424 MW)

Under the revised rules, companies are not allowed to disclose whether they intend to bid.

JERA, Japan's top power generator, has said it was conducting environmental assessment procedures for Oga-Katagami-Akita project and Happo-Noshiro project.

Itochu Corp 8001.T, Tokyo Gas Co Ltd 9531.T and other companies are considering bidding for some of the projects, according to the Nikkei business daily.

FLOATING OFFSHORE

In 2021, the government selected a consortium of six companies led by Toda Corporation to build the 16.8 MW Goto floating offshore wind farm in Nagasaki prefecture. It was the only bidder in a public auction for the small project.

Japan is working to create a new roadmap for floating offshore wind power by the end of March 2024.

EXPERIENCE

Foreign companies are likely to need Japanese partners in order to participate in auctions as they would need to discuss plans with local authorities, fishermen and residents, whose opposition led to some wind power projects being scrapped in the past.

The UK wants to take part in developing Japan's offshore wind power via options ranging from the participation of its energy companies to providing financing and insurance, Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps told Reuters in April.

At the time of the first round, a number of foreign companies, including Denmark's Orsted (ORSTED.CO), Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE) and Norway's Equinor (EQNR.OL), showed interest in entering the Japanese market.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Fatih Birol said European governments had made strategic mistakes, including an overreliance on Russia for energy. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty/ Editing by Germán & Co

International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter

Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies

The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that energy prices may spike again this winter, forcing government to subsidise bills – just days after state support for UK households fell away.

Fatih Birol said a rapid improvement in the Chinese economy, coupled with a harsh winter, could put pressure on gas supplies and push up bills for consumers.

He said the agency “cannot rule out” another spike in gas prices this winter, which would mirror last year when a surge in wholesale costs as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fed through to huge consumer bills.

“In a scenario where the Chinese economy is very strong, buys a lot of energy from the markets, and we have a harsh winter, we may see strong upward pressure under natural gas prices, which in turn will put an extra burden on consumers,” Birol told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

China’s economy had been bouncing back from Covid restrictions – pushing up demand for gas supplies – however, recent indicators suggest a slowdown. “We do not know yet how strongly the Chinese economy will rebound,” Birol said.

Last autumn the then prime minister, Liz Truss, was forced to step in to subsidise bills for households and consumers, and that support was extended in March to cap average bills at £2,500 from April to the end of June after demands from campaigners.

On Saturday, the Ofgem price cap fell to £2,074, in effect replacing the government energy price guarantee, although bills remain almost £1,000 more than two years ago.

Russia reduced supplies of gas into Europe last year, causing fears that power cuts may occur over the winter and sparking a huge effort to reduce consumption on the continent. The UK government belatedly introduced a campaign to encourage energy saving in December.

Birol said European governments had made “strategic mistakes”, including an overreliance on Russia for energy, and that foreign policy had been “blindfolded” by short-term commercial decisions.

Countries have made attempts to improve their ability to import gas from other countries and ramp up their renewable energy generation, but there are simmering fears that Vladimir Putin’s regime may decide to cut supplies of Russian gas into Europe this winter.

Birol said he “wouldn’t rule out blackouts” this winter as “part of the game”.

Last week, the chief executive of Centrica, the British Gas owner, said household energy bills were likely to remain high for the foreseeable future as wholesale market prices remain inflated.

Gas prices eased earlier this year as a relatively mild European winter reduced demand. However, prices have rallied in recent weeks, up 40% in June, amid fears over supplies this winter.

Month-ahead UK gas prices rose by almost 6% on Monday to 96.5p a therm.

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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Exclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin

“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…

Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a longtime admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Thursday Putin has been "somewhat weakened" by an aborted mutiny and that now is the time for the United States to try to broker a negotiated peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

"I want people to stop dying over this ridiculous war," Trump told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Speaking expansively about foreign policy, the front-runner in opinion polls for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination also said China should be given a 48-hour deadline to get out of what sources familiar with the matter say is a Chinese spy capability on the island of Cuba 90 miles (145 km) off the U.S. coast.

On Ukraine, Trump did not rule out that the Kyiv government might have to concede some territory to Russia in order to stop the war, which began with Russian forces invading Ukraine 16 months ago. He said everything would be "subject to negotiation", if he were president, but that Ukrainians who have waged a vigorous fight to defend their land have "earned a lot of credit."

"I think they would be entitled to keep much of what they've earned and I think that Russia likewise would agree to that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don't have that right now," he said.

U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO allies want Russia out of territory it has seized in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive that has made small gains in driving out Russian forces.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last year proposed a 10-point peace plan, which calls on Russia to withdraw all of its troops.

"I think the biggest thing that the U.S. should be doing right now is making peace - getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace. You can do it," Trump said. "This is the time to do it, to get the two parties together to force peace."

As president, Trump developed friendly relations with Putin, who Biden said on Wednesday has "become a bit of pariah around the world" for invading Ukraine.

Trump said Putin had been damaged by an uprising by the Russian mercenary force, the Wagner Group, and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, last weekend.

"You could say that he's (Putin) still there, he's still strong, but he certainly has been I would say somewhat weakened at least in the minds of a lot of people," he said.

If Putin were no longer in power, however, "you don't know what the alternative is. It could be better, but it could be far worse," Trump said.

As for war crime charges levied against Putin by the International Criminal Court last March, Trump said Putin's fate should be discussed when the war is over "because right now if you bring that topic up you'll never make peace, you'll never make a settlement."

Trump was adamantly opposed to China's spy base on Cuba and said if Beijing refused to accept his 48-hour demand for shutting it down, a Trump administration would impose new tariffs on Chinese goods.

As president, Trump adopted a tougher stance on China while claiming a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping that soured over the coronavirus pandemic.

"I'd give them 48 hours to get out. And if they didn't get out, I'd charge them a 100% tariff on everything they sell to the United States, and they'd be gone within two days. They'd be gone within one hour," Trump said.

Trump was mum on whether the United States would support Taiwan militarily if China invaded the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.

"I don't talk about that. And the reason I don't is because it would hurt my negotiating position," he said. "All I can tell you is for four years, there was no threat. And it wouldn't happen if I were president."

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“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…

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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023

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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 〰️

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Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

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Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…

The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023

The cruel war that we had to live through during the later phases of the initial wave of the pandemic until the present day has had a profound impact on our endeavors and has destabilized our emotional state. An unprecedented inflationary phenomenon has had a detrimental impact on the most vulnerable members of our society, exacerbating their already marginalized status. We may have inadvertently overlooked the presence of the Covid-19 virus as a result of the exceptional circumstances surrounding this time.

On June 15 and yesterday, “Nebraska Medicine” and “The New York Times” reported that more than 9,747 patients are hospitalized in the United States per week, with 16% of those being ICU patients. The test positivity rate for the week of June 2-8 was 7.2%. When test positivity is above 5%, transmission is considered uncontrolled. Still, since many are using home tests that are not reported through public health or are not testing at all, the official case counts underestimate the actual prevalence of COVID-19.

According to a study published in “Plos Pathogens” by the University of Kent (England) on Friday, 17 November 2019, the initial identification of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurred in Wuhan, China. The composition of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is relatively uncomplicated, consisting of proteins and nucleic acids. It is important to acknowledge that the replication of this virus is contingent upon its ability to exploit the metabolic processes of specific living cells.

One of the most notable consequences resulting from the global outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic is the profound transformation in human emotional behavior. This —-diminutive—- organism evoked a profound sense of fear, a stark reminder of the prevailing sense of isolation and detachment within our technologically advanced society.

In the current digital age, which is marked by the widespread use of technology and online connectivity, traditional forms of displaying affection, such as physical touch and face-to-face interactions, have been replaced by virtual representations and a constant online presence.

The absence of interpersonal interaction can have detrimental consequences on our general state of health, and in severe instances, it may even lead to our demise.

The prevailing state of health can be ascribed to an alleged human mistake that occurred in a laboratory located in the distant province of Wuhan, China, which is widely recognized for its rich historical heritage spanning thousands of years.

The implications of these unknow living conditions extend beyond the scope of human sensory perception and have profound implications for the industrial sector. The mandated restriction on individuals' mobility has impeded their capacity to travel to their workplaces, resulting in a scarcity of crucial raw materials and components. Consequently, the interruption in the production chain impedes its efficient operation, leading to a shortage of crucial commodities necessary for the sustenance of human life.

Furthermore, the insufficient accessibility of crucial goods and the exorbitant expenses linked to global maritime transportation contribute to the prevalence of inflation, a deleterious phenomenon. Additionally, it is anticipated that the inflation rate will attain a minimum of 18% during the last three years. The management of the national economy and household budgets presents significant challenges during the prevailing financial crisis.

Rapid adaptability to change has traditionally been regarded as a commendable human quality…

Why does this phenomenon manifest itself?

The answer to this inquiry is uncomplicated. Human existence does not persist in a perpetual state of either joy or sorrow, nor is it exclusively characterized by a state of stability or instability. Fortunately, life is not defined by such a simplistic nature. On the contrary, the trajectory of life is distinguished by its complex and intricate nature, encompassing a myriad of encounters and mis encounters, along with moments of affection and aversion.

In conclusion, human existence is constantly confronted with unforeseen and profound transformations. As inherently human beings, we possess an innate sense of solidarity within our essence. This sense of community and togetherness helps us navigate the challenges that life throws our way.

The teachings and spirituality of Saint Teresa of Avila, also known as Teresa de Cepeda y Ahumada, a nun who devoted her life to praying for the most vulnerable five centuries ago and was later canonized, profoundly influenced the Wollmer family, owners of Hacienda Santa Teresa, situated in the mountainous Aragua Valley, the heart of Venezuela's sugar industry, they were deeply moved by her teachings and spiritual beliefs, Long before the inception of the corporate social responsibility trend.

“Santa Teresa” represents the most ancient rum brand in Venezuela. The Hacienda Santa Teresa, the site of rum production, has a historical origin dating back to 1796. The Hacienda initially operated as a cultivator of coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane. The production of rum started in 1830 and has continued ever since, despite the company's acknowledgment of various adversities such as war, revolutions, invasions, dictators, and the current pandemic.

The company produces several rum expressions, but only one of them, namely “Santa Teresa 1796 Solera Rum”, is designated for exportation. This expression was first release in 1996 to commemorate the Hacienda's bicentennial. Bacardi Ltd oversees the international management of this one-of-a-kind.

Botlle Waxing / Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

The brand has a long history of community involvement. The organization's most renowned endeavour is the ongoing Project “Alcatraz”. In 2003, a criminal gang unlawfully entered the Hacienda premises and launched a surprise attack on a security guard. When apprehended, the perpetrators were presented with an unconventional option:

Either surrender to the authorities or engage in labour at the Hacienda to restate their transgression.

The offer was accepted, leading to the establishment of Project “Alcatraz”. Since its creation, Project “Alcatraz” has evolved into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to recruiting and rehabilitating those involved in criminal gangs. This program utilizes various strategies, including vocational training, values formation, psychological counselling, formal education, and participation in rugby, to reintegrate these individuals into society. To date, the program has witnessed the participation of numerous young people.

In the summer of 2020, during the hell of the pandemic, following its longstanding commitment to community assistance, the company introduced a “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry. “Santa Teresa” employed a group of 25 bartenders to undertake the task of designing the label for the “Special Edition” expression, starting with Liana Oster, a bartender at the “Dante Bar “ in New York, every participant in the study contributed to the development the brand and subsequently handed it over to the following participant in the sequence. 

Project “Alcatraz” / Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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News round-up, June 30, 2023

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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023

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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 〰️

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Community engagement…

“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, has always been dedicated to helping those in need. Their commitment to community engagement is remarkable through their notable initiative, Project "Alcatraz." In addition, during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020, Santa Teresa stepped up with their "Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle" as a response to the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the hospitality industry. It's inspiring to see a brand like Santa Teresa offering hope to the most vulnerable and positively impacting their community…

Germán & Co

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Most read…

Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military

Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels?

Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 

EU to propose exit from Energy Charter Treaty over climate concerns

The Energy Charter Treaty was established in 1998 to advance investments in the energy sector. Fifty countries, including the European Union member states, have signed it. However, lately, there have been growing concerns about the treaty. It has allowed energy companies to take legal action against governments for policies that negatively impact their investments.

REUTERS By Kate Abnett / Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023

Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…

“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…

The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023

Canadian wildfire smoke spreads, 100 million Americans under air-quality alerts

Air-quality alerts lasted until midnight for several states, including Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. The alerts also extended to New York, Washington, and the East Coast.

Reuters By Brendan O'Brien, Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023

Exclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin

“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…

Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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A view of the Kremlin in Moscow. (Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) / editing by Germán & Co

Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military

Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels?

Reuters by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 

A satellite communications system serving the Russian military was knocked offline by a cyberattack late Wednesday and remained mostly down on Thursday, in an incident reminiscent of an attack on a similar system used by Ukraine at the start of the war between the countries.

Dozor-Teleport, the satellite system’s operator, switched some users to terrestrial networks during the outage, according to JD Work, a cyberspace professor at the National Defense University. Analyst Doug Madory of Kentik, which monitors online traffic, said one network was taken over by Dozor’s parent company, Amtel-Svyaz, while three others remained down.

The company did not release a statement on what had gone wrong. At least two groups claimed responsibility for the attack, one describing itself as a hacktivist organization and the other as part of the Wagner Group, the mercenaries who mutinied last week and marched most of the way to Moscow. The hackers claimed to have sent malicious software to the satellite terminals, setting off a scramble among security experts to obtain a terminal for testing.

Hacking Russia was off-limits. The Ukraine war made it a free-for-all.

Multiple self-proclaimed hacktivists have attacked websites and critical infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine since the war began, but many of them coordinate with or are cover for military forces, according to sources familiar with their efforts.

A connection to Wagner could be faked to promote more division in Russia. A real one would be more interesting, showing that the mutinous actions may continue in cyberspace even if they have stopped on Earth.

Though Work said local market researchers estimated that the satellite arm of the company only has $10 million in annual revenue, it serves the Russian military and other federal services. Work said reporting elsewhere showed that its customers include Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

The impact of the shutdown will depend on its duration and whether the customers had other means to communicate that are reliable and secure. For many, satellite communications are the backup, while military units on the move could find it more vital.

“It’s doubtful this is crippling, unless there happened to be customers for whom this is their only connectivity option,” said Brian Weeden, a director at Secure World Foundation, a Washington think tank focused on space issues.

War in space: U.S. officials debating rules for a conflict in orbit

Ukraine has in the past been able to intercept Russian soldiers’ communications when they did not use a satellite service.

Satellite hacks are rare and are disclosed even more rarely. The attack on Viasat service used by the Ukraine military and others in February 2022 has been seen as one of the most successful hacking attacks of the war. SpaceX’s Starlink service became a vital alternative inside the country, and it has withstood multiple hacking attempts since then.

The Viasat hack was attributed by experts to Russia’s military intelligence arm, the GRU. But Wagner mercenaries could have worked closely enough with the GRU to have picked up techniques used in that attack. If so, it would have been easier for them to turn around and use it against Russia’s Dozor.

“There are a variety of scenarios where this capability, in a confused and uncertain post-mutiny environment, could have been brought to the front,” Work said.

A U.S. military spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. A person familiar with Western operations supporting Ukraine in cyberspace said it was not clear who was behind the latest attack.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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Smoke bellow from the chimneys of Belchatow Power Station, Europe's largest biggest coal-fired power plant, in this May 7, 2009 POLAND-BELCHATOW//File Photo / Editing By Germán & Co

EU to propose exit from Energy Charter Treaty over climate concerns

The Energy Charter Treaty was established in 1998 to advance investments in the energy sector. Fifty countries, including the European Union member states, have signed it. However, lately, there have been growing concerns about the treaty. It has allowed energy companies to take legal action against governments for policies that negatively impact their investments.

REUTERS By Kate Abnett / Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023

BRUSSELS, June 29 (Reuters) - The European Commission is readying a proposal for EU countries to jointly quit an international energy treaty, after some governments already pledged to leave over climate concerns.

The 1998 Energy Charter Treaty, which has around 50 signatories including European Union countries, lets energy companies sue governments over policies that damage their investments - a system initially designed to support investments in the sector.

But in recent years it has been used to challenge policies that require fossil fuel plants to shut, raising concerns in some European capitals that it is an obstacle to addressing climate change.

A Commission spokesperson told Reuters it will make legal proposals for a coordinated EU exit "in the coming weeks", after EU countries - some of which already plan to exit the treaty - could not agree to pass reforms to it.

"As it stands, the treaty is not in line with the EU’s investment policy and law and with the EU's energy and climate goals," the spokesperson said.

Four sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters the EU executive will make the proposal next week. Three of the sources said Brussels had considered a partial exit that would let some countries stay in the treaty, but opted against it over legal concerns.

Pressure has mounted on Brussels to lead an EU-wide exit after Denmark, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain announced they planned to quit the treaty. Italy left in 2016.

But the proposal is likely to be opposed by countries including Cyprus, Hungary and Slovakia, which have said they would prefer to stay in an updated version of the accord.

Any proposal will need backing from a reinforced majority of member states and support from the European Parliament, which has publicly backed the idea.

"A coordinated withdrawal would remove one of the main obstacles to realising the EU's binding climate targets," said Lukas Schaugg, an analyst at the International Institute for Sustainable Development think tank.

Treaty signatories last year negotiated reforms designed to address some of the climate concerns, but which received a mixed reception from EU countries and criticism from campaigners. The reforms would struggle to pass without EU support.

The unreformed treaty has a "sunset clause" that would protect existing fossil fuel investments in Europe for 20 years even after the EU quit. The reformed version would let the EU shorten that to 10 years.

Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Image couetesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…

“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…

The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023

The cruel war that we had to live through during the later phases of the initial wave of the pandemic until the present day has had a profound impact on our endeavors and has destabilized our emotional state. An unprecedented inflationary phenomenon has had a detrimental impact on the most vulnerable members of our society, exacerbating their already marginalized status. We may have inadvertently overlooked the presence of the Covid-19 virus as a result of the exceptional circumstances surrounding this time.

On June 15 and yesterday, “Nebraska Medicine” and “The New York Times” reported that more than 9,747 patients are hospitalized in the United States per week, with 16% of those being ICU patients. The test positivity rate for the week of June 2-8 was 7.2%. When test positivity is above 5%, transmission is considered uncontrolled. Still, since many are using home tests that are not reported through public health or are not testing at all, the official case counts underestimate the actual prevalence of COVID-19.

According to a study published in “Plos Pathogens” by the University of Kent (England) on Friday, 17 November 2019, the initial identification of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurred in Wuhan, China. The composition of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is relatively uncomplicated, consisting of proteins and nucleic acids. It is important to acknowledge that the replication of this virus is contingent upon its ability to exploit the metabolic processes of specific living cells.

One of the most notable consequences resulting from the global outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic is the profound transformation in human emotional behavior. This —-diminutive—- organism evoked a profound sense of fear, a stark reminder of the prevailing sense of isolation and detachment within our technologically advanced society.

In the current digital age, which is marked by the widespread use of technology and online connectivity, traditional forms of displaying affection, such as physical touch and face-to-face interactions, have been replaced by virtual representations and a constant online presence.

The absence of interpersonal interaction can have detrimental consequences on our general state of health, and in severe instances, it may even lead to our demise.

The prevailing state of health can be ascribed to an alleged human mistake that occurred in a laboratory located in the distant province of Wuhan, China, which is widely recognized for its rich historical heritage spanning thousands of years.

The implications of these unknow living conditions extend beyond the scope of human sensory perception and have profound implications for the industrial sector. The mandated restriction on individuals' mobility has impeded their capacity to travel to their workplaces, resulting in a scarcity of crucial raw materials and components. Consequently, the interruption in the production chain impedes its efficient operation, leading to a shortage of crucial commodities necessary for the sustenance of human life.

Furthermore, the insufficient accessibility of crucial goods and the exorbitant expenses linked to global maritime transportation contribute to the prevalence of inflation, a deleterious phenomenon. Additionally, it is anticipated that the inflation rate will attain a minimum of 18% during the last three years. The management of the national economy and household budgets presents significant challenges during the prevailing financial crisis.

Rapid adaptability to change has traditionally been regarded as a commendable human quality…

Why does this phenomenon manifest itself?

The answer to this inquiry is uncomplicated. Human existence does not persist in a perpetual state of either joy or sorrow, nor is it exclusively characterized by a state of stability or instability. Fortunately, life is not defined by such a simplistic nature. On the contrary, the trajectory of life is distinguished by its complex and intricate nature, encompassing a myriad of encounters and mis encounters, along with moments of affection and aversion.

In conclusion, human existence is constantly confronted with unforeseen and profound transformations. As inherently human beings, we possess an innate sense of solidarity within our essence. This sense of community and togetherness helps us navigate the challenges that life throws our way.

The teachings and spirituality of Saint Teresa of Avila, also known as Teresa de Cepeda y Ahumada, a nun who devoted her life to praying for the most vulnerable five centuries ago and was later canonized, profoundly influenced the Wollmer family, owners of Hacienda Santa Teresa, situated in the mountainous Aragua Valley, the heart of Venezuela's sugar industry, they were deeply moved by her teachings and spiritual beliefs, Long before the inception of the corporate social responsibility trend.

“Santa Teresa” represents the most ancient rum brand in Venezuela. The Hacienda Santa Teresa, the site of rum production, has a historical origin dating back to 1796. The Hacienda initially operated as a cultivator of coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane. The production of rum started in 1830 and has continued ever since, despite the company's acknowledgment of various adversities such as war, revolutions, invasions, dictators, and the current pandemic.

The company produces several rum expressions, but only one of them, namely “Santa Teresa 1796 Solera Rum”, is designated for exportation. This expression was first release in 1996 to commemorate the Hacienda's bicentennial. Bacardi Ltd oversees the international management of this one-of-a-kind.

The brand has a long history of community involvement. The organization's most renowned endeavour is the ongoing Project “Alcatraz”. In 2003, a criminal gang unlawfully entered the Hacienda premises and launched a surprise attack on a security guard. When apprehended, the perpetrators were presented with an unconventional option:

Either surrender to the authorities or engage in labour at the Hacienda to restate their transgression.

The offer was accepted, leading to the establishment of Project “Alcatraz”. Since its creation, Project “Alcatraz” has evolved into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to recruiting and rehabilitating those involved in criminal gangs. This program utilizes various strategies, including vocational training, values formation, psychological counselling, formal education, and participation in rugby, to reintegrate these individuals into society. To date, the program has witnessed the participation of numerous young people.

In the summer of 2020, during the hell of the pandemic, following its longstanding commitment to community assistance, the company introduced a “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry. “Santa Teresa” employed a group of 25 bartenders to undertake the task of designing the label for the “Special Edition” expression, starting with Liana Oster, a bartender at the “Dante Bar “ in New York, every participant in the study contributed to the development the brand and subsequently handed it over to the following participant in the sequence.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Pittsburgh's Duquesne Incline ascends Mount Washington as smoke, from Canadian wildfires, hanging over the U.S. Midwest and parts of the East Coast create hazy skies, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S. June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Quinn Glabicki / Editing by Germán & Co

Canadian wildfire smoke spreads, 100 million Americans under air-quality alerts

Air-quality alerts lasted until midnight for several states, including Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. The alerts also extended to New York, Washington, and the East Coast.

Reuters By Brendan O'Brien, Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023

CHICAGO, June 29 (Reuters) - Murky, dull skies loomed over tens of millions of Americans on Thursday as smoke from prolonged Canadian wildfires drifted across the Midwest and East, causing unhealthy and, in some spots, dangerous conditions.

Air-quality alerts were in effect until midnight for a swath of the United States that extended from Wisconsin and northern Illinois stretching through Michigan and Ohio and extending into New York, Washington and the East Coast, the National Weather Service said.

More than 100 million Americans were urged to limit prolonged outdoor activities, and, if needed, wear a mask if they suffer from pulmonary or respiratory diseases. Children and the elderly were also advised to minimize or avoid strenuous activities.

People living in major U.S. cities such as New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia saw smoky skies that dulled the summer sun as the smell of burning wood lingered in the air.

"Air quality is unhealthy in every corner of the state," New York Governor Kathy Hochul said during a morning press conference, recommending that residents regularly check the air quality in their area. "This is the new normal for New Yorkers."

On Thursday morning, smoke hung over Chicago for the third day in a row. The air quality was "Unhealthy" in the third-largest city in the United States, which was joined by Detroit and Washington D.C. as having the poorest air among major cities on the planet, according to IQAir.com, which tracks pollution.

"The air quality in Chicago has been dreadful, giving me brutal migraines. Feeling better today with my trusty air purifier on full blast. Taking a chill day," said a Twitter user named Skaar.

The air-quality alerts were triggered by drifting smoke from wildfires burning in Canada, which is wrestling with its worst-ever start to wildfire season.

An area of 8 million hectares (19.8 million acres), bigger than West Virginia, has already burned. On Wednesday, there were 477 active blazes, about half which were considered out of control, spread from the Pacific to the Atlantic coasts.

While poor air quality was the concern in the Midwest and East, the U.S. South was again dealing with a brutal heat wave that promised to persist throughout the day on Thursday and into the long Fourth of July holiday weekend.

The heat index - which measures how hot it feels due to the combination of humidity and temperature - was expected to climb to 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) and in some spots as high as 115 degrees F (46 C). The weather service urged people to seek air-conditioned spaces and drink plenty of water.

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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Exclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin

“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…

Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a longtime admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Thursday Putin has been "somewhat weakened" by an aborted mutiny and that now is the time for the United States to try to broker a negotiated peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

"I want people to stop dying over this ridiculous war," Trump told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Speaking expansively about foreign policy, the front-runner in opinion polls for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination also said China should be given a 48-hour deadline to get out of what sources familiar with the matter say is a Chinese spy capability on the island of Cuba 90 miles (145 km) off the U.S. coast.

On Ukraine, Trump did not rule out that the Kyiv government might have to concede some territory to Russia in order to stop the war, which began with Russian forces invading Ukraine 16 months ago. He said everything would be "subject to negotiation", if he were president, but that Ukrainians who have waged a vigorous fight to defend their land have "earned a lot of credit."

"I think they would be entitled to keep much of what they've earned and I think that Russia likewise would agree to that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don't have that right now," he said.

U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO allies want Russia out of territory it has seized in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive that has made small gains in driving out Russian forces.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last year proposed a 10-point peace plan, which calls on Russia to withdraw all of its troops.

"I think the biggest thing that the U.S. should be doing right now is making peace - getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace. You can do it," Trump said. "This is the time to do it, to get the two parties together to force peace."

As president, Trump developed friendly relations with Putin, who Biden said on Wednesday has "become a bit of pariah around the world" for invading Ukraine.

Trump said Putin had been damaged by an uprising by the Russian mercenary force, the Wagner Group, and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, last weekend.

"You could say that he's (Putin) still there, he's still strong, but he certainly has been I would say somewhat weakened at least in the minds of a lot of people," he said.

If Putin were no longer in power, however, "you don't know what the alternative is. It could be better, but it could be far worse," Trump said.

As for war crime charges levied against Putin by the International Criminal Court last March, Trump said Putin's fate should be discussed when the war is over "because right now if you bring that topic up you'll never make peace, you'll never make a settlement."

Trump was adamantly opposed to China's spy base on Cuba and said if Beijing refused to accept his 48-hour demand for shutting it down, a Trump administration would impose new tariffs on Chinese goods.

As president, Trump adopted a tougher stance on China while claiming a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping that soured over the coronavirus pandemic.

"I'd give them 48 hours to get out. And if they didn't get out, I'd charge them a 100% tariff on everything they sell to the United States, and they'd be gone within two days. They'd be gone within one hour," Trump said.

Trump was mum on whether the United States would support Taiwan militarily if China invaded the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.

"I don't talk about that. And the reason I don't is because it would hurt my negotiating position," he said. "All I can tell you is for four years, there was no threat. And it wouldn't happen if I were president."

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News round-up, June 29, 2023

Quote of the day…

European EV makers are overtaking Tesla - but weak consumer demand is a drag

“Volkswagen sold more electric cars than Tesla in Europe last year in a key sign legacy carmakers have caught up on the California firm's head start - but Joachim Klement of Liberum Capital told Reuters margins are being squeezed across the industry.

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Most read…

Big Oil Mulls a Slippery Future

Ask energy executives how much oil the world will need by 2050 and you will get very different opinions

NYT By Carol Ryan, June 29, 2023 

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined

The Guardian, Amy Hawkins and Rachel Cheung, 29 Jun 2023

Explainer: Why the wind power industry has hit turbulence

Is more than evident how unforeseen events can quickly disrupt promising positive trends. The wind power sector is going through a —-perfect storm—- has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in disruptions to the supply chain and project construction delays. Additionally, certain companies have lost government support or subsidies because they failed to meet policy deadlines. This has further complicated the already challenging financing environment. Factors such as increasing energy prices, inflation, and rising interest rates have made securing funding for these projects harder.

REUTERS By Nina Chestney/Editing by Germán & Co, June 26, 2023

Wagner shot down 'special' Russian aircraft. 

With only 12 planes in its fleet, the Russian military may have to decrease its tasking levels to ensure the remaining aircraft's safety. In high-tempo operations, this loss may affect Russia's ability to coordinate and command its forces.

The Telegrpah / Editing by Germán & Co, NOW

Humans have sucked so much water out of the ground that the Earth has tipped

Pumping excessive amounts of water for farming over two decades has caused the planet to tilt more to the east, study says

The Telegraph By Nick Allen, US EDITOR 28 June 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Image editing by Germán & Co

Big Oil Mulls a Slippery Future

Ask energy executives how much oil the world will need by 2050 and you will get very different opinions

NYT By Carol Ryan, June 29, 2023 

Some people in the oil business insist that demand for the fuel will stay steady for decades. PHOTO: ELI HARTMAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS

When is it game over for oil? Don’t expect a clear answer from the people with the most to lose from a shift to cleaner fuels.

Within energy circles, estimates of how much oil will be needed in 2050 range anywhere from 80% less than today to business as usual. Investors have the difficult job of betting which companies are on the wrong side of the most important trend for the sector in decades. 

At an energy conference this week, Haitham al-Ghais, secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, repeated the cartel’s view that global demand for oil will hit 110 million barrels a day by 2045—as far out as OPEC currently projects. This is roughly a 10% increase from current rates. Natural gas, renewable power and hydrogen will all play bigger roles, but oil will remain center stage.

If OPEC is right, it is bad news for efforts to limit climate change. For the world to reach its net-zero target and restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, demand must fall below 30 million barrels a day by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency. 

Most U.S. majors are also in the “high demand” camp, according to Alexander Schay, managing director at the energy consulting firm WK Associates and co-author of a Securities and Exchange Commission comment that compiled 2050 oil forecasts. 

Exxon Mobil said in a recent filing that the chances of the world getting to net zero are low because of the drop in living standards it would cause. The company expects global oil demand to still be roughly 100 million barrels a day by 2050 and is betting that technologies such as carbon capture and storage, as well as methane abatement, will allow the world to use fossil fuels for decades to come.  

European oil producers are considering the possibility that events move faster. Shell’s latest energy security report looks at two scenarios. Even with no new climate policies, it thinks demand for oil will fall around 10% by the middle of the century. And it sees a plunge if the world gets really serious about reducing emissions. 

BP has looked at two “what if” scenarios in addition to the most aggressive net-zero one. It estimates that oil production will decline by roughly 25% based on trends it is already seeing in the market, or close to 60% in its “accelerated” scenario in which climate regulations get tighter. 

But neither European company is seriously preparing for these challenging outcomes yet. Both Shell and BP recently reversed plans to cut oil production aggressively this decade, indicating that they will reduce supply once demand from customers tails off.

With demand for oil still growing, higher projections do look more realistic right now. The risk for executives hoping this won’t change is that they are wrong-footed by harsher regulations, wild-card technologies or a surge in destructive weather events that hammers home the need to cut emissions fast.

All of this underlines the intense uncertainty that energy bosses face, even looking a few years ahead. At Shell’s investor day this month, Chief Executive Wael Sawan told shareholders, “I would be lying to you if I pretended to know where various markets that we’re looking at are going to go in the 2026, 2027, 2028 period.”

One important swing factor that investors can watch is how fast oil demand for road transportation falls. This will depend on how fuel-efficient gas-engined cars become and how many drivers buy electric vehicles. EVs currently make up 16% of passenger-car sales globally. The data provider EV-volumes.com expects this share to rise rapidly to 68% by 2035.

Adoption will take longer if electric cars remain unaffordable for many consumers, which depends in part on supplies of battery materials such as lithium. It is also unclear whether creaking electricity infrastructure can cope with the level of electrification needed to wean the world off fossil fuels. Bottlenecks in supply chains and permitting are delaying installments of new wind and solar power capacity, especially in Europe.

Another trend to watch is whether rising demand for energy in emerging markets can be offset with efficiency measures, such as LED lighting or more efficient air conditioners. And it isn’t just energy: As the middle classes swell, consumers are likely to spend more on packaged goods. That will send demand for oil-based inputs to make virgin plastic soaring, barring better recycling rates or bans on single-use plastic.

Shareholders don’t look convinced by arguments that oil still has a long road ahead. According to the investment research firm New Constructs, the share prices of Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil and Chevron all imply that the companies’ profits will permanently decline from today’s levels.

The overall impression is of an oil industry in limbo, waiting to see what happens next.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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Kela photovoltaic power station on the Yalong River in Garzê Tibetan autonomous prefecture, China. Photograph: China News Service

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined

The Guardian, Amy Hawkins and Rachel Cheung, 29 Jun 2023

China is shoring up its position as the world leader in renewable power and potentially outpacing its own ambitious energy targets, a report has found.

China is set to double its capacity and produce 1,200 gigawatts of energy through wind and solar power by 2025, reaching its 2030 goal five years ahead of time, according to the report by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO that tracks operating utility-scale wind and solar farms as well as future projects in the country.

It says that as of the first quarter of the year, China’s utility-scale solar capacity has reached 228GW, more than that of the rest of the world combined. The installations are concentrated in the country’s north and north-west provinces, such as Shanxi, Xinjiang and Hebei.

‘Insanely cheap energy’: how solar power continues to shock the world

In addition, the group identified solar farms under construction that could add another 379GW in prospective capacity, triple that of the US and nearly double that of Europe.

China has also made huge strides in wind capacity: its combined onshore and offshore capacity now surpasses 310GW, double its 2017 level and roughly equivalent to the next top seven countries combined. With new projects in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu and along coastal areas, China is on course to add another 371GW before 2025, increasing the global wind fleet by nearly half.

“This new data provides unrivalled granularity about China’s jaw-dropping surge in solar and wind capacity,” said Dorothy Mei, a project manager at Global Energy Monitor. “As we closely monitor the implementation of prospective projects, this detailed information becomes indispensable in navigating the country’s energy landscape.”

The findings are in line with previous reports and government data released this year, which predicted that China could easily surpass its target of supplying a third of its power consumption through renewable sources by 2030.

China’s green energy drive is part of its effort to meet dual carbon goals set out in 2020. As the world’s second largest economy, it is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and accounts for half of the world’s coal consumption. The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, pledged in 2020 to achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.

A coal-fired power plant in Shanghai. China approved more coal power in the first three months of 2023 than in the whole of 2021. Photograph: Aly Song/Reuters

The report attributed China’s remarkable progress in expanding its non-fossil energy sources to the range of policies its government has implemented, including generous subsidies to incentivise developers as well as regulations to put pressure on provincial governments and generating companies.

China began operating the world’s largest hybrid solar-hydro power plant in the Tibetan plateau on Sunday. Named Kela, the plant can produce 2bn kW hours of electricity annually, equal to the energy consumption of more than 700,000 households.

It is only the first phase of a massive clean energy project in the Yalong River basin. The installation has a 20GW capacity now and is expected to reach about 50GW by 2030.

Despite China’s careful planning, its energy transition is not without its challenges. In recent years, record heatwaves and drought crippled hydropower stations, resulting in power crunches that brought factories to a halt. An outdated electricity grid and inflexibility in transferring energy between regions add to the uncertainty.

The Kela plant is located in the sparsely populated west of the country, where more than three-quarters of coal, wind and solar power is generated. But the vast majority of energy consumption happens in the east. Transporting energy thousands of miles across the country results in inefficiencies.

The way China’s grid is organised can incentivise building coal plants around renewable generators. Much of the new renewable capacity is not connected to the local energy supply and often bundled with coal power to be transmitted to areas of higher demand.

More coal power was approved in the first three months of 2023 than in the whole of 2021.

“China is making strides,” said Martin Weil, a researcher at Global Energy Monitor and an author of the report. “But with coal still holding sway as the dominant power source, the country needs bolder advancements in energy storage and green technologies for a secure energy future.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Image by Germán & Co

Explainer: Why the wind power industry has hit turbulence

Is more than evident how unforeseen events can quickly disrupt promising positive trends. The wind power sector is going through a —-perfect storm—- has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in disruptions to the supply chain and project construction delays. Additionally, certain companies have lost government support or subsidies because they failed to meet policy deadlines. This has further complicated the already challenging financing environment. Factors such as increasing energy prices, inflation, and rising interest rates have made securing funding for these projects harder.

REUTERS By Nina Chestney/Editing by Germán & Co, June 26, 2023

LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - Problems in Siemens Energy's (ENR1n.DE) wind turbine division that could cost more than a billion euros ($1.09 billion) to fix have shaken investor confidence in the wider industry and last week prompted a sell-off in wind companies' shares.

Over the last two decades, the industry has grown fast, lowered technology costs to on a par or even cheaper than fossil fuels in some parts of the world and increased efficiency through bigger and bigger turbines.

According to the Statistical Review of World Energy report on Monday, global wind and solar power grew to a record share of 12% of power generation last year, surpassing nuclear.

The Global Wind Energy Council said earlier this year that a record 680 gigawatts (GW) of wind energy capacity is expected to be installed by 2027.

But the industry has had a tough few years.

SUPPLY CHAIN

The COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 led to lockdowns, decreased industrial activity and reduced global energy demand.

In the wind sector, as in other industries, restrictions on movement triggered supply chain disruption and delays in project construction.

Limits on the number of workers allowed on site and delays in components from China and elsewhere meant that some wind developers had to delay or even cancel projects.

Some firms also missed policy deadlines that meant that they lost out on government support or subsidies for which they previously qualified, the International Energy Agency said.

The war in Ukraine has also created logistics and supply chain issues, aggravated in some cases by the impact of sanctions.

ECONOMICS

Despite mounting pressure to combat climate change by moving to renewable sources, financing projects has been a challenge.

The war in Ukraine last year led to higher energy prices and this fuelled rises in inflation and interest rates.

But the expected revenues of those planning to build wind turbines have not risen in tandem. Many governments index the prices paid for wind energy, usually through auctions, which are often too low, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said.

The rise in commodity prices, such as steel, also increased the price of wind turbines by up to 40% over the last two years, industry body WindEurope said earlier this year.

Wind turbine manufacturers - unable to pass on higher costs to customers who placed orders two or three years ago - have tried to mitigate the impact of higher inflation and pressure on profit margins by raising prices.

COMPETITION

As more governments have announced ambitious climate targets, pressure on companies to increase renewables development has increased.

Established wind manufacturers, already competing with each other to drive down component and technology costs and increase wind farms' efficiency with huge turbines, also face new entrants.

Traditional wind project developers, such as utilities, increasingly face competition from oil and gas majors seeking to diversify their portfolios, who have often outbid them in wind tenders and auctions.

Some oil and gas companies, however, are also struggling with poor returns from renewables while oil and gas profits have hit record levels in response to high energy prices.

COMPONENTS

Among the issues which arise from operating wind turbines, wear and tear on turbine blades over time can lead to erosion.

The increasing size of blades on turbines also raises the risk of lightning strikes and repairs.

For offshore wind, harsh weather conditions can also result in corrosion of foundations or of the turbine.

Leading wind turbine maker Vestas flagged quality issues with turbine blades in their onshore fleet in 2020 and provided an extra 600 million euros to fix them. Its shares fell more than 6% on Friday, while shares in Siemens Energy, the second biggest wind turbine maker, sank 37%.

Most of the problems of Siemens Energy's wind unit Siemens Gamesa concern its onshore turbine fleet, where the group has discovered quality issues in certain components, including rotor blades and bearings.

Siemens Energy said that 15%-30% of the fleet could be affected by the problems, which were exposed during a review that noted "abnormal vibration behaviour of some components" and unspecified problems around product design.

Dealing with issues could cost more than 1 billion euros, it said.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

---

Image by The Telegraph editing by Germán & Co

Wagner shot down 'special' Russian aircraft. 

With only 12 planes in its fleet, the Russian military may have to decrease its tasking levels to ensure the remaining aircraft's safety. In high-tempo operations, this loss may affect Russia's ability to coordinate and command its forces.

The Telegrpah / Editing by Germán & Co, NOW

According to an exclusive note, post of “The Telegraph” 29 minutes ago, the British Ministry of Defence has said that one of the Russian warplanes reportedly shot down during the Wagner rebellion was a "special mission aircraft" with a critical role in Russia's war in Ukraine, 

In its latest intelligence update, the defence ministry said that on Saturday, air defence forces of the Wagner group had reportedly shot down an II-22M aircraft, part of a relatively small fleet of 12 "heavily utilised for airborne command and control, and radio relay tasks.

The ministry warned that the loss of the craft could have a longer-term impact on Russia's air capability, as "there is a possibility that current tasking levels may have to be reduced to safely manage the remaining fleet."

"This will likely undermine Russia's ability to command and coordinate its forces, particularly during periods of high tempo operations."

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About 2,150 gigatons of groundwater was extracted from aquifers below the surface between 1993 and 2010 CREDIT: Wild Horizon/Universal Images Group 

Humans have sucked so much water out of the ground that the Earth has tipped

Pumping excessive amounts of water for farming over two decades has caused the planet to tilt more to the east, study says

The Telegraph By Nick Allen, US EDITOR 28 June 2023

The tilt of the Earth has shifted because of the vast quantity of groundwater humans have sucked out of it over the past two decades, according to scientists.

Pumping water out of the ground for drinking and farming redistributed such a large mass that the Earth’s tilt moved by 31.5 inches to the east, toward Iceland, between 1993 and 2010.

According to the study, published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal, the planet’s north-south axis has been tipping at a rate of about 1.7 inches per year.

Scientists described the redistribution of water on the planet as “like adding a tiny bit of weight to a spinning top – the Earth spins a little differently as water is moved around”.

Prof Ki-Weon Seo, a geophysicist at Seoul National University who led the study, said: “Earth’s rotational pole actually changes a lot. Our study shows that among climate-related causes, the redistribution of groundwater actually has the largest impact on the drift of the rotational pole. 

“We have affected Earth systems in various ways. People need to be aware of that.

“I’m very glad to find the unexplained cause of the rotation pole drift. On the other hand, as a resident of Earth and a father, I’m concerned and surprised to see that pumping groundwater is another source of sea-level rise.”

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Why the Earth’s axis has shifted

Sum of observed polar motion excitation trend contributors…

*Estimated polar motion excitation without groundwater storage changes

*Observed trend of polar motion excitation

*Estimated polar motion excitation with groundwater storage changes

Between 1993 and 2010, about 2,150 gigatons of groundwater was extracted from aquifers below the surface, enough to fill Lake Victoria in Africa.

The Earth spins at about 1,000 mph and the largest contributor to the movement of the axis is flow in convection movements in the molten rock, well below the surface.

However, the new study showed that the removal of groundwater was the second largest contributor.

The fact that water removal could change the rotation of the planet was first discovered seven years ago, but has now been measured.

Surendra Adhikari, a research scientist at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who published a 2016 paper on water redistribution impacting rotational drift, said: “They’ve quantified the role of groundwater pumping on polar motion, and it’s pretty significant.”

In the new study, researchers created models of changes in the wobble of the Earth’s rotational pole and the movement of water.

To begin with, they looked at only the movement of ice sheets and glaciers, before adding in different scenarios of groundwater redistribution.

The model only matched the observed polar drift once the researchers included the 2,150 gigatons of groundwater redistribution.

They also found the location of the groundwater contributes to how much it could change polar drift.

The fact that water removal could change the rotation of the planet was first discovered seven years ago CREDIT: Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images

Redistributing water from the mid-latitudes has a larger impact on the movement of the rotational pole.

Water being redistributed in western North America and northwestern India, both at mid-latitudes, had a significant impact.

Prof Seo said that attempts to slow the extraction of groundwater depletion in those regions could theoretically alter the drift of the rotational pole, but only if such conservation approaches were sustained for decades.

The rotational pole usually changes by several metres a year owing to other factors including the mantle flow.

That means changes due to the pumping of groundwater would not lead to a shifting of the seasons.

However, when looked at on geologic time scales, polar drift could have an impact on the climate, the scientists said.

They will continue to look into previous decades to see how much groundwater extraction has affected the Earth’s rotation over a longer period.

Prof Seo said: “Polar motion data are available from as early as the late 19th century.”

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News round-up, June 28, 2023

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Editorial…

The "Wagner's Little Mad Army" and Russia's Cryptic Summer Equinox of 2023

What It’s really unleash —2023 Russian Equinox started — is still in limbo, but there is no doubt that it was not a “coup”. In fact, all signs point to a "putsch," a "self-coup," or a "Röhm purge."

According to the Reuters and New York Times report from today, the current Russian Summer Equinox seems comparable to a "Röhm purge", and the outcome could be the same as Nicholas II and Rasputin fate.

Germán & Co

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Most read…

The "Wagner's Little Mad Army" and Russia's Cryptic Summer Equinox of 2023

What It’s really unleash —2023 Russian Equinox started — is still in limbo, but there is no doubt that it was not a “coup”. In fact, all signs point to a "putsch," a "self-coup," or a "Röhm purge."

By Germán & Co, June 28, 2023

The Spying Scandal Inside One of America’s Biggest Power Companies

A private investigator surveilled Southern Co.’s CEO, prompting an internal investigation into whether it was commissioned by another executive

WSJ By Katherine Blunt, June 28, 2023 

European Green Pact under threat after vote in EU Parliament

On Tuesday, the European Legislative Assembly's Environment Committee voted to reject the Nature Restoration Bill as the right is trying to convince governments on its side to call for a pause in the implementation of the Green Pact.

 Le Monde By Virginie Malingre(Brussels, Europe bureau), today

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Image editing by Germán & Co

The "Wagner's Little Mad Army" and Russia's Cryptic Summer Equinox of 2023

What It’s really unleash —2023 Russian Equinox started — is still in limbo, but there is no doubt that it was not a “coup”. In fact, all signs point to a "putsch," a "self-coup," or a "Röhm purge."

By Germán & Co, June 28, 2023

A "putsch" is a political and military maneuver carried out by a minority group with the goal of overthrowing a government or gaining control. In 1960-61, French soldiers, especially the legionnaires, were perplexed by President de Gaulle's proposal to abandon Algeria. Algeria had been a part of France since 1848. Despite the military victories achieved between 1958 and 1960, the soldiers were confused. In May 1958, the French Army successfully staged a coup in Algiers to install de Gaulle as President and maintain French control over Algeria. The Putsch —des généraux—, also known as the “April 1961 Generals' Putsch of Algiers”, was an unsuccessful military coup aimed at preserving French Algeria, the insurrections group was led by Challe, a French legionnaire.

A “self-coup”, also known as an autocoup (derived from the Spanish term "autogolpe"), or coup from the top, refers to a type of coup d'état wherein the leader of a nation, who initially assumed power through legitimate channels, attempts to retain power through unlawful methods. The leader has the potential to dissolve or incapacitate the national legislature, thereby unlawfully acquiring extraordinary powers that are not typically granted under normal circumstances. Other potential measures could involve the nullification of the nation's constitution, the suspension of civil courts, and the assumption of dictatorial powers by the head of government.

The “Röhm-Putsch” is a disinformation strategy in which false information about an ongoing coup was purposefully disseminated in order to justify violent acts (Assassinating the Insurgents). The Röhm-Putsch, also known as the Night of the Long Knives, occurred in Germany in 1934 and had significant political ramifications. Adolf Hitler and the Schutzstaffel carried out a purge of the Sturmabteilung (SA) leadership (SS).

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1991 failed Soviet coup marked —decisive moment—

The hardliners within the Communist Party assumed power over Gorbachev and orchestrated a coup d'état due to their perception of diminishing authority. Their actions can be seen as a desperate attempt to regain control over the nation and impede Gorbachev's reform agenda.

The coup took place amidst a period of economic and social turmoil in the Soviet Union, which left a significant portion of the populace disenchanted and disheartened with the government. Gorbachev had devised a dual-pronged reform strategy with the objective of modernizing both the Soviet economy and political structure. The prolonged suppression of the freedom of speech and expression resulted in a surge of social upheaval, as a significant number of individuals demanded greater political autonomy and participation in the governance of their nation.

“Nevertheless, their strategy had unintended consequences as widespread protests erupted across the Soviet Union, with the populace mobilizing to demand the liberation of Gorbachev and the reinstatement of democratic governance. Ultimately, the attempted coup d'état was unsuccessful, leading to the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 31, 1991.

The occurrence of that summer marked the end of a significant era and the beginning of a new chapter in the historical trajectory of Russia. The collapse of the Soviet Union had profound and far-reaching consequences for the international community, as it signified the conclusion of the Cold War and inaugurated a new era of global politics. (2)

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Wagners Demands to the State of the Russian Federation...

Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Yevgeny Prigozhin was born on June 1, 1961, in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg), Soviet Union, has been a subject of interest in academic circles. His mother, Violetta Prigozhina, provided financial support for him and his sick grandmother by working at a nearby hospital, as his father died early.

It is noteworthy that Prigozhin's paternal and maternal lineage can be traced back to Jewish ancestry. During his formative years, he harbored aspirations of becoming a professional cross-country skier and subsequently enrolled in renowned athletics boarding school, from which he successfully completed his studies in 1977.

However, his professional trajectory in sports proved to be unsuccessful in the end. In 1990, Prigozhin commenced vending hot dogs at the Apraksin Dvor open-air market in Leningrad, in collaboration with his mother and stepfather.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Prigozhin initiated or participated in numerous entrepreneurial ventures. In 1995, Mr. Prigozhin commenced his foray into the restaurant industry.

The mercenary group leader is a key figure in Russia's escalating domestic conflict.

During the conflict in Ukraine, the paramilitary force experienced a significant expansion, with tens of thousands of combatants under its command. Instances of conflict have arisen between Prigozhin and high-ranking military officials in Russia. He has produced videos that challenge Russia's portrayal of a triumphant military campaign. He frequently claims that his forces have played a leading role in the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, they have expressed doubts regarding the capabilities of the Russian military, specifically directing harsh criticism towards the Minister of Defense, Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu.

“For Prigozhin It is worth noting that Shoigu is known for his close relationship with President Vladimir Putin, whom he considers a trusted confidant. Shoigu was a member of President Boris Yeltsin's inner circle of advisors, like President Vladimir Putin. It is worth mentioning that President Boris Yeltsin was betrayed by his Dauphin, i.e. Vladimir Putin on the same night he was elected premier and this made it unjustifiable that Yeltsin had deposited his succession in his hands four months earlier.

In addition to the criticisms, Prigozhin further escalated tensions in May by releasing a video depicting deceased individuals in military attire and denouncing the leadership for their lack of preparedness.

What is Prigozhin's relationship with Putin?

Putin and Prigozhin hail from the same hometown of St. Petersburg. Putin rose from KGB insider to Russian leader, while Prigozhin served a decade in prison as a teenager before starting a hot dog stand.

During the first decade of the 21st century, Prigozhin established a closer relationship with President Vladimir Putin. In 2003, he left his business partnerships and proceeded to establish independent restaurants. It is worth mentioning that Concord Catering, a company owned by Prigozhin, has been successful in securing multiple government contracts. In 2012, a contract was awarded to him for the provision of meals to the Russian military, with a total value of US$1.2 billion for a duration of one year.

He quickly gained influence in hospitality and caught Putin's attention. Prigozhin earned the nickname "Putin's chef" for assisting in serving state dinners, including one with then-President George W. Bush in 2006, while Putin was in the highest echelons of the Russian government. Putin provided state-funded loans to help Prigozhin open a school-lunch factory. Prigozhin partially owned Concord Management and Consulting, which was suspected of funding pro-Trump trolling during the 2016 election.

What drove Prigozhin's actions?

In a video on Telegram, Prigozhin criticized Russia's leadership for starting the war and admitted that Ukrainian forces were successfully pushing back against the Russian army. On Friday, Prigozhin claimed that Russian military leaders had ordered strikes on his men, resulting in thousands of deaths.

Prigozhin claimed that the war was a chance for scumbags to display their military might and for the defense minister to get promoted.

Russia’s response?

Russian officials launched a criminal probe against Prigozhin for his controversial statement. A Russian military leader warned of a "state coup."

State officials believe that Prigozhin's statement and actions could incite armed civil conflict in Russia.

Who is the much-hated defense minister for Prigozhin?

Serguei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, the Minister of Defense, is a multilingual individual and a talented artist. He has achieved a remarkable career progression within the communist party, starting from a lower position and advancing to a higher position.

The bad news for Prigozhin is that Shoigu has been close to President Vladimir Putin since 2008, whom he considers a trusted confidant. In addition, he was a member of President Boris Yeltsin's inner circle of advisors, like President Vladimir Putin. Shoigu was born on May 21, 1955, in Chadan, Tuvan Autonomous Oblast, which is his birthplace.

Shoigu has a diverse ethnic heritage. His mother is of Russian origin but has Ukrainian roots, while his father is a newspaper editor with Tuvan ancestry. Alexandra Shoigu resides in Kadiivka. She became a member of the Tuva Regional Council of People's Deputies, and his father was a prominent figure in the Communist power structure of the Tuvan Republic. Everything indicates that Prigozhin miscalculated politically by demanding the removal of such a notorious defense minister.

In this unexpected and extraordinary performance, two political figures take the stage.

If we're talking about two —political animals— with battle scars from the countless political conflicts they've experienced.

The first...

The rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan…

President Erdogan's rise to prominence is a compelling story that began with modest beginnings of selling lemonade and sesame buns. For an extended period, he has been a vocal proponent of Islamist causes, concurrently demonstrating a proclivity to stifle his detractors and adversaries and assert Turkey's influence as a regional hegemon. Despite causing division within his population, Erdogan has consistently exhibited his proficiency in winning elections, thereby earning him the endearing title of "reis" or "chief" from his devoted followers. The culmination of his political career resulted in his status as a powerful figure, leading Turkey for a period of twenty years.

Despite encountering numerous crises and accusations of worsening Turkey's already dire cost-of-living situation, Erdogan has emerged victorious in the 2023 presidential election.

Putin-Erdogan relationship complex, involving Russia-Turkey dynamic interplay.

A $100 billion deal to…  And all this for what?

The transportation of Gazprom natural gas through a hub in Turkey, which is financed by Russia, as well as the trade of strategic weapons and their mutual participation in conflicts, have substantial implications for both nations and the global political environment.

And what is its goal?

Prevent Finland and Sweden from joining NATO...

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convened in Sochi, Russia for a meeting. During these discussions, the two leaders have augmented their partnership and reached a consensus on economic collaboration that has the potential to reach a value of $100 billion.

The current relationship between Erdogan and Putin has elicited concerns from Erdogan's NATO allies, who are apprehensive that Erdogan's actions may provide Putin with a substantial means of circumventing the sanctions that have been imposed against him by the West.

The have raised doubts regarding Erdogan's genuine allegiance, which extends beyond his personal interests.

Despite the existing concerns, the current relationship between Putin and Erdogan seems to be mutually advantageous. Putin derives advantages from the sale of energy and arms, in addition to investment prospects. Furthermore, the affiliation of Russia with a member of NATO offers significant strategic benefits.  Turkey is currently experiencing several benefits, including cash infusions, access to affordable energy, global significance, a vast export market, and apparent support from Russia in its endeavors to quell Kurdish separatism in Syria. It is noteworthy to mention that the two leaders maintain a relationship of both friendship and enmity, commonly referred to as "frenemies," which is of significant magnitude. Both individuals exhibit characteristics of authoritarian leaders, having accumulated significant authority and maintaining a closed circle of advisors. Additionally, they are known for their assertive and uncompromising demeanor. The bilateral relationship between the two nations is contingent upon the rapport established between their respective leaders. It is noteworthy that the discussions held between them are treated with utmost confidentiality.

It is evident that President Erdogan could not passively accept the risk of losing all the geopolitical and economic gains he had obtained from President Putin.

According to reports, during a complex phone call between the Turkish president and his Russian counterpart, it is claimed that the former emphasized the importance of utilizing —common sense—.

The second one is…

Who is Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus?

He has been in power since 1994. Alexander Lukashenko was born in northern Belarus after World War II. His father left the family, leaving him and his mother to fend for themselves. Alexander Lukashenko's early dedication to Leninist ideology led him to attend the Mogilev Teaching Institute after high school.  Before politics, he was in the Soviet Army and directed a state-owned farm. Lukashenko spent three years as a political officer in the Soviet Border Guards after graduation.  Lukashenko married his childhood sweetheart upon returning home. Lukashenko led the Communist Youth Wing's Komsomol. Lukashenko joined a state-owned farm to support his family.

Lukashenko had a successful career managing a construction materials plant and state-run farm complex before becoming a deputy to the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of Belarus. He later chaired an anti-corruption committee.

A year after the Soviet Union's collapse, Lukashenko's anti-corruption stance led to his unexpected win in Belarus' first independent presidential election. Lukashenko has held onto power for decades by relying on his ideological beliefs from his youth,

Europe’s last autocrat leads Belarus. Lukashenko has been president for almost 29 years, starting in July 1994.Lukashenko, 68, started his sixth term after the controversial August 2020 Belarusian presidential election. Western countries deemed the Belarus election fraudulent, leading to widespread protests by hundreds of thousands of Belarusians against Lukashenko's power grab.

“Lukashenko is a close ally of Putin…

Putin offered military support to Lukashenko after the 2020 Belarusian election. Lukashenko backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and allowed the Russian military to enter Ukraine through Belarus.

In reciprocity, Lukashenko acts as a mediator..., preventing Russian bloodshed.

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Today, Reuters published a note stating that Lukashenko claimed Putin wanted to "wipe out" Wagner chief Prigozhin during a mutiny attempt. And New York Times, post at Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military.

In response to what the Kremlin portrayed as a mutiny that could have led to civil war, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that he persuaded Russian President Vladimir Putin not to eliminate mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Putin initially promised to put down the mutiny, comparing it to the wartime chaos that led to the 1917 revolution and subsequent civil war. However, a deal was struck shortly afterwards that allowed Prigozhin and some of his fighters to relocate to Belarus. On Tuesday, Prigozhin flew from Russia to Belarus.

During his conversation with Putin on Saturday, Lukashenko used Russian criminal slang, using a phrase that means to kill someone, like the English phrase "wipe out."

I also understood that a harsh decision had been made (which was implied in Putin's address) to eliminate the mutineers," Lukashenko stated during a meeting with army officials and journalists on Tuesday, as reported by Belarusian state media.

"I advised Putin to take his time."

He said to me, "Listen, Sasha, it's pointless." "He refuses to answer calls and avoids all conversations. “Putin used the same Russian verb in 1999 to describe his determination to eliminate Chechen militants, stating that he would "wipe them out in the shithouse."

These remarks have since become a widely quoted symbol of his strong personality.

The Kremlin has not yet commented on Lukashenko's remarks, which provide a rare glimpse into the discussions within the Kremlin as Russia, as stated by Putin, faced a level of turmoil not witnessed in decades.

Lukashenko remark at this is the most highly trained unit in the army," quoted Lukashenko by the BelTA state agency.  

"Who would argue with this?"

Later, Lukashenko informed his military that "people do not comprehend that we are taking a practical approach to this... Wagner, who has experienced it firsthand, will provide us with insights on the effectiveness of different weapons - what worked well and what didn't. Prigozhin stopped what he referred to as the "march of justice" on Moscow from the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, which is about 200 kilometers away from the capital, after Lukashenko intervened.

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Conclusions

Based on the information provided in the Reuters and New York Times report, it can be inferred that the current Russian Summer Equinox bears similarities to a "Röhm purge" that is currently in progress.

The definitive outcome of the Russian Summer Equinox provides strong indications regarding the fate of Nicholas II and Rasputin, with a significant level of certainty.

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Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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ILLUSTRATION BY ALEXANDRA CITRIN-SAFADI/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL; IMAGES FROM AN INVESTIGATIVE REPORT DOCUMENTING TOM FANNING’S SURVEILLANCE

The Spying Scandal Inside One of America’s Biggest Power Companies

A private investigator surveilled Southern Co.’s CEO, prompting an internal investigation into whether it was commissioned by another executive

WSJ By Katherine Blunt, June 28, 2023 

On a late spring day in 2017, a private investigator parked outside a fitness center in an Atlanta strip mall and covertly recorded video of a personal trainer as she entered her business.

Forty-five minutes later, the investigator took photos as the woman returned to her car, stowed her gym bag and drove away. He next followed her for 25 minutes to the home of her then-boyfriend, Tom Fanning, who, as chief executive of Southern Co., SO -1.57%decrease; red down pointing triangle had for years been one of the energy industry’s most powerful figures.

The following day, while parked in Fanning’s neighborhood, the investigator photographed the executive running up a hill near his house. The investigator compiled the innocuous findings from his four days of surveillance into an eight-page report and billed his client more than $6,800 for the work.

Atlanta-based Southern, one of the largest utility companies in the U.S. and one of the most prominent corporate brands across the Southeast, has been bedeviled for much of the past year by the peculiar espionage effort, which led to an internal investigation but no public explanation.

Word of the surveillance surfaced last summer in a lawsuit between consultants in a firm that for decades has done work for Alabama Power, a Southern subsidiary. One of them alleged that, at the direction of Alabama Power officials, the other consultant had ordered surveillance of Southern executives in order to possibly gain internal leverage.

When Fanning learned of the effort last summer, he was incensed, according to people familiar with the matter. He hired outside law firms to probe the allegation that someone within Alabama Power was behind it.

Now, nearly a year after the spying became public, the investigation is largely complete—and the company says it has no idea who ordered the operation or why. 

Fanning, 66, retired last month after more than a decade atop the massive utility company. He remains Southern’s executive chairman. Last winter, the CEO of Alabama Power stepped down.

The episode marks a bizarre coda to Fanning’s career, and has contributed to turmoil within Southern, which operates utilities in Mississippi and Georgia as well as Alabama.

The company’s board of directors, which has been briefed on the results of the investigation, has discussed how to implement better oversight of Southern’s operating units and the consultants they engage, according to people familiar with the matter.

“We conducted a thorough internal investigation of this matter and were unable to substantiate the allegation that the highly inappropriate surveillance of Tom Fanning was authorized by any employee of the company,” a Southern spokesman said in a statement. “We have moved on.”

Through the spokesman, Fanning declined to comment.

In November, about three months after the start of the investigation, Mark Crosswhite, then CEO of Alabama Power, abruptly announced plans to retire at the end of the year. The 60-year-old told employees he wanted to spend more time with his family.

Crosswhite had been a serious contender to succeed Fanning as Southern CEO, people familiar with the matter said. The people said the surveillance allegations and subsequent investigation played a role in his decision to leave.

Crosswhite, who stayed on as a consultant and, according to securities filings, drops off the company payroll at the end of this month, didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

The Southern spokesman said the spying allegations played “zero factor” in succession planning.

Southern recently reached a milestone when one of two new reactors at a nuclear-power plant in Georgia produced electricity for the first time. The reactors, the first in the U.S. to be built from scratch in decades, are billions over budget and years behind schedule. 

Among other things, the alleged motivation for the spying was based in part on issues related to the plant’s troubles. 

The allegations spilled out of a lawsuit filed in 2021 stemming from an acrimonious split between Joe Perkins and Jeff Pitts, who had worked together at an Alabama-based consulting firm called Matrix. Pitts alleged in court filings that Perkins, at the direction of Alabama Power executives, had ordered surveillance of Southern executives to influence corporate decision-making. 

Pitts signaled his intent to subpoena Southern and Alabama Power for surveillance-related documents. Within days, lawyers for the companies sent a letter to Pitts demanding that he cease to make any requests or disclosures that would involve the companies in the lawsuit. Pitts and Perkins soon settled their dispute.

Southern then hired attorneys with Atlanta law firm King & Spalding, as well as Birmingham, Ala.-based White Arnold & Dowd, to perform an internal investigation into the allegations, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

In communications reviewed by the Journal, Pitts conveyed to Southern’s attorneys that Perkins consulted with Crosswhite before ordering surveillance on Fanning and his then-girlfriend, the personal trainer.

The idea, Pitts alleged, was part of a plan to put pressure on Fanning and the company’s board of directors as they contemplated corporate restructuring. 

At the time, Fanning was under significant pressure. The company had lost $1.38 billion in the second quarter of 2017, its first loss since 1998.

Southern was struggling to build a power plant in Mississippi designed to run on coal and capture much of the carbon dioxide emitted in the process. The project’s costs had ballooned, and the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating its accounting practices and cost-control measures. The company said at the time it was cooperating with the investigation, which ended without the agency taking any enforcement action.

Southern was also facing serious challenges in expanding the nuclear plant in Georgia.

The plant, known as Vogtle, was supposed to have been completed by 2017 but had been substantially delayed. Construction costs had surged to nearly double the original estimate, and the company revised its completion estimate to 2021 at the earliest.

As the projects bled money, Southern began considering whether to consolidate certain functions of Southern’s three utilities to save costs over time.

Bain, a consulting firm, began exploring the potential benefits of consolidation, according to a person involved in the effort. Executives within Alabama Power were resistant to the idea, the person said.

Pitts alleged that Perkins and Crosswhite were concerned that consolidating resources, such as consulting and legal services, could result in job losses and potentially affect succession planning across the company. Pitts included what he said were handwritten notes from Perkins. 

“Need more intel,” read an annotation next to the name of Fanning’s girlfriend at the time. Fanning wasn’t married at the time.

Pitts alleged that Perkins told him to undertake surveillance of Fanning and his girlfriend, saying that “the company wants this.” 

The surveillance began on a Wednesday, June 14, 2017, with findings that were less than explosive. 

“Through discreet methods, we determined that the fitness center was closed due to the installation of a new air conditioning system,” the investigator wrote after finding that the girlfriend wasn’t inside the facility as expected.

Two days later, after following the trainer from the gym to Fanning’s house, the investigator parked and waited for Fanning to arrive in his blue Lexus. He lingered outside for hours after the car pulled into the driveway.

Construction costs for the expansion of Georgia Power’s Vogtle nuclear power plant are now more than double original estimates, and the project is years behind schedule. PHOTO: JOHN BAZEMORE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The next day, a Saturday, the investigator drove by Fanning’s house at 10:45 a.m. and noted a newspaper on the driveway. He returned at 2:30 p.m. and noted it had been picked up.

Just before 4 p.m., the investigator spotted Fanning running and noted he appeared to be interval training.

“We elected not to pursue Fanning to the top of the hill,” the investigator wrote.

The private investigator billed Matrix for the surveillance work and listed Pitts as the recipient on the invoice. He charged $150 for finding license-plate numbers for both Fanning and his girlfriend, $4,275 for the surveillance and $127.50 for producing a report and video, plus other miscellaneous expenses.

Southern said it found “no indication” that the company or its subsidiaries paid for the operation.

David Pomerantz, executive director of the Energy and Policy Institute, said since the surveillance came to light in local media coverage, investors and watchdogs have been puzzled about the whole affair, including whether any customer money was used. He said that it adds to his longstanding concerns about the industry’s corporate governance and use of consultants, which has led to other scandals in recent years.

“What we actually need—and what the company’s customers are entitled to—is an external investigation by regulators who can compel the production of information,” he said. 

The Alabama Public Service Commission, the agency tasked with overseeing Alabama Power, said it has “no information regarding this matter.”

Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

Image by Germán & Co

European Green Pact under threat after vote in EU Parliament

On Tuesday, the European Legislative Assembly's Environment Committee voted to reject the Nature Restoration Bill as the right is trying to convince governments on its side to call for a pause in the implementation of the Green Pact.

 Le Monde By Virginie Malingre(Brussels, Europe bureau), today

Each side has one victory under its belt. On Tuesday, June 27, after completing its article-by-article examination, the European Parliament's Environment Committee rejected the bill on nature restoration. Less than two weeks earlier, on June 15, the same MEPs had voted against an amendment to reject the same legislation, which aims to enshrine in European Union law the Montreal Agreement on biodiversity and its objectives, such as restoring 30% of degraded land and marine areas by 2030.

In both cases, 44 elected representatives voted in favor and 44 against. On Tuesday, this meant there was no majority for those in favor of the bill. On June 15, it was the defenders of the rejected amendment who missed their target by one vote. A third round of voting is due to take place at the July plenary session, to be held in Strasbourg from July 10 to 13, which will be called upon to confirm (or not) Tuesday's vote. Or perhaps we will have to wait until September, as requested by the conservatives of the European People's Party (EPP), who argue that the agenda of the next Strasbourg session is already very full.

A battle of rare intensity is being waged in the European Parliament between Manfred Weber, the chairman of the EPP group, allied with the far right, and Pascal Canfin, the Emmanuel Macron-allied chairman of the Environment Committee, behind whom the Greens, the Social Democrats (S&D) and some of his political friends, the liberals of Renew Europe, have rallied. The first group is calling for the law on nature restoration to be withdrawn outright, while the latter group wants to save it.

'European Trumpism'

Beyond the issues at stake in this bill on biodiversity, the future of the European Green Pact is at stake, against the backdrop of a campaign one year ahead of the European elections scheduled for June 2024. Until now, the EPP, along with Renew Europe and the S&D group, had supported the various bills presented to them by the Commission in the name of the Green Pact, notably to combat climate change (reform of the carbon market, creation of a carbon tax at borders, end of the combustion engine by 2035). Some 30 of these bills (out of a planned 50) have already been adopted.

However, in September 2022, Weber called for a moratorium on the environmental aspects of the Green Pact, explicitly attacking the legislation on nature restoration and pesticide reduction. The Bavarian CSU member argues that they threaten agricultural production, jeopardize food security and drive up the cost of living. Between the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, he said, "There's an urgent need for a break." Especially as the European elections are approaching and the CDU-CSU is now in opposition in Berlin. "For months now, we've been warning about the dangers of the nature restoration regulation. The Commission needs to get back to work and present a new copy," said EPP MEP Anne Sander.

In recent months, the EPP, the largest political force in the European Parliament, has methodically tried to kill the Nature Restoration Bill. Referring to the fact that some EPP MEPs, who sit on the Environment Committee and were fairly supportive, have been replaced by colleagues more in keeping with the group's position, Canfin accused Weber of "manipulating the vote" and "making the vote meaningless." "So I'm optimistic for the July plenary: Manfred Weber won't be able to replace the EPP members." Regarding the EPP and its far-right allies, he went on to say, "We are witnessing the emergence of a European Trumpism that is anti-environmental, anti-immigration and anti-feminist."

Within Renew Europe, the Nature Restoration Law is not unanimously supported. In fact, on Thursday, four of the 12 Liberal members of the Environment Committee voted against it. This ratio is likely to be repeated during the plenary vote, as the group has not given any voting instructions, unlike the EPP.

'I am asking for us to press the pause button'

It is not only the European Parliament that is questioning the need to continue with the Green Pact. Until now, only the heads of state and governments of certain Eastern European countries with high-carbon economies have voiced their reluctance.

Now, liberal leaders are also voicing their doubts. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a regulatory pause after 2024, infuriating some of his supporters. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo followed suit: "We must avoid (...) overburdening the boat by adding to the CO2 emission targets new standards," notably "in the field of biodiversity." I am asking for us to press the pause button, except for CO2." In the Netherlands, the success of the Farmers' Party, an anti-Green Pact movement that made a real breakthrough in regional elections in March, has prompted his counterpart Mark Rutte to advocate for a degree of caution.

Weber, who is also president of the EPP, Europe's right-wing party, is trying to win over the heads of state and governments to his cause. As they meet in Brussels on Thursday ahead of a European Council meeting, he is trying to convince them to call for a regulatory pause in the implementation of the Green Pact.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who also comes from the ranks of the EPP and has made the Green Pact one of her priorities, is keeping a close eye on these movements. For Angela Merkel's former minister, who plans to run for a second term as the head of the EU executive after the European elections, the outcome of these negotiations will be crucial. "Von der Leyen's political group is withdrawing from the Green Pact. She hasn't said anything yet. She must react before the July plenary," said Spanish Socialist MEP César Luena.

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Is there a new attempt to replicate the 1991 Soviet —coup d'état—?…Putin in crisis: Wagner chief Prigozhin declares war on Russian military leadership, says ‘we will destroy everything’

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Image editing by Germán & Co

Russia’s FSB security service opens criminal case against mercenary boss, as he vows to steamroll over anyone who gets in his way.

Is there a new attempt to replicate the 1991 Soviet —coup d'état—?

The attempt in 1991 was undoubtedly a significant event in modern history. It was an attempt by a group of hardline Communist Party members to overthrow Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and seize control of the Soviet Union. The coup ultimately failed, thanks in part to the mass protests and resistance of the people of Moscow. The event marked the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union, which would officially dissolve just a few months later. Despite its failure, the 1991 Soviet coup attempt remains a fascinating and significant moment in world history.

Germán & Co

Politico EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, TIM ROSS AND ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH, JUNE 23, 2023 

Vladimir Putin is facing a major military crisis after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared war on Moscow’s own defense ministry, claiming Kremlin officials had killed thousands of his soldiers.

In a statement issued Friday night, the FSB security agency said it had “legally and reasonably begun criminal proceedings” against the Wagner Group warlord “for the organization of armed insurrection.”

Prigozhin, meanwhile, claimed he had pulled his troops back from Ukraine and into Russia’s Rostov, and vowed: “If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything!”

POLITICO could not verify the claim that Wagner troops had entered Rostov and Prigozhin did not present evidence of the massive troop movements he claimed were underway. But in the early hours of Saturday morning, videos began circulating on social media that reportedly showed unidentified armed men dressed in camouflage entering Rostov-on-Don, the administrative center of the Rostov region, and seizing government buildings.

According to Russian state media, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Putin is aware of the rapidly unfolding situation and “all necessary measures are being taken.”

“Prigozhin’s statements and actions are actually the calls for the beginning of an armed civil conflict on the territory of Russia and are a ‘stab in the back’ for Russian servicemen,” officials added.

The move comes after Prigozhin accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of having hidden “colossal” failings on the battlefield from Putin, claiming that 2,000 Wagner men were killed as a result of strikes ordered by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

In a later statement on Telegram, Prigozhin called Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the overall commander of the war on Ukraine, “criminals” who had “who destroyed around 100,000 Russian soldiers.”

In an audio recording posted just after 5 a.m. Rostov time, Prigozhin repeated his threat that his troops would destroy anything that stood in their way. “Once again I’m warning everyone: we will … destroy everything around us. You can’t destroy us. We have goals. We are all ready to die. All 25,000 of us.”

In response to Prigozhin’s allegations, Moscow issued a strong denial and a procession of generals have lined up to urge Wagner fighters to stand down.

In one video appeal, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, first deputy chief of the general staff of the armed forces, said Prigozhin does not have the authority to give orders. “This is a state coup,” he insisted, “come to your senses!”

Meanwhile, the Deputy Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine Sergei Surovikin — known as “General Armageddon” — urged Wagner to hold its positions and not to turn on its own allies. “Stop the columns, return them to the points of permanent deployment,” he pleaded.

Russia’s defense ministry issued a statement in the early hours of Saturday morning, warning that Ukrainian forces are “taking advantage of Prigozhin’s provocation” on the front lines around the key battleground town of Bakhmut, which Wagner troops previously held. Moscow’s top brass also said the 35th and 36th brigades of Ukraine’s Marine Corps “are on the starting lines for offensive operations.”

In a tweet in the early hours of Saturday, Ukraine’s defense ministry said: “We are watching.”

Rolling the dice

Earlier Friday, the Wagner Group founder questioned Moscow’s rationale for launching its invasion of Ukraine, saying that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with NATO,” and that “the war was needed for a bunch of scumbags to triumph and show how strong of an army they are.”

In a bombastic video statement he called the Russian military leadership “evil” and vowed to march for “justice,” threatening anyone who stood in his way.

In a second message released on his Telegram channel in the early hours of Saturday morning, Prigozhin said that “at the current time, we are entering Rostov,” in Russia, adding that conscripts had been sent to turn Wagner Group fighters back. However, he went on to claim, those guarding the frontier had greeted his troops with open arms.

“If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything!” Prigozhin vowed.

In a post on his Telegram account, Vasily Golubev, the governor of the Rostov region, said: “The current situation requires the maximum concentration of all forces to maintain order. Law enforcement agencies are doing everything necessary to ensure the safety of residents of the area. I ask everyone to stay calm and do not leave the house without the need.”

Russian state media said checkpoints have been erected in Rostov-on-Don, close to the souther border with Ukraine. At the same time, unnamed officials told news agency TASS that security has been tightened in Moscow with national guard units deployed to keep the peace. Unverified videos purport to show armored vehicles parked on the streets of the capital.

Russian state media also said Moscow’s Red Square will be closed to the public on Saturday, claiming the reason for the closure was because an event was to be held there.

Speaking to POLITICO, Colonel Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and ex-NATO planner, said that it was “too early to tell” if a coup was underway. “Clearly Moscow is worried and has activated a defense plan — Prigozhin is trying to push something focused on Shoigu, but it could be many things.”

According to Ian Garner, a Russia expert and author of a new book on the fallout of the war in Ukraine, the Wagner chief has overplayed his hand. “Prigozhin has rolled the dice, and now the state is going to do away with him for good,” he said.

“I suspect Prigozhin’s chances of launching a successful coup are slim. The state can offer everything he does — money, freedom, prestige — without him. Why would the Wagner fighters side with Prigozhin in a battle to the death?” Garner said.

Death knell for Wagner

The chaos amounts to a death knell for the Wagner Group, which has been active not just in Ukraine but also in Africa, according to one analyst.

“Whatever this is, it is definitely the dismantling of Wagner,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst and founder of the R-Politik consultancy firm, on her Telegram channel.

“This is the end of Prigozhin and the end of Wagner. An important moment: many within the elite will hold it against Putin that things have come this far and that the president did not react sooner. That’s why this entire story is also a blow to Putin.”

In his increasingly unhinged voice memos on Telegram, Prigozhin also claimed a Russian military helicopter had opened fire on a convoy of his troops — and that Wagner had shot it down.

U.S. National Security Council spokesperson on Russia Adam Hodge said: “We are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”

Meanwhile, the Kremlin published a pre-recorded video of President Putin in honor of Youth Day.

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The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…

…”While there's significant disruption in Europe, renewable energy may accelerate in the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/02/while-theres-significant-disruption-in-europe-renewable-energy-may-accelerate-in-the-us-aes-ceo.html

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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News round-up, June 23, 2023

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”The Fish Dies By The Mouth…

During the previous week, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, delivered a sequence of impromptu statements that have significantly escalated the tension between the United States and China, as well as Russia, to a level that is approaching a critical point.

 “It was about 3 o'clock in the morning when I was abruptly awoken by a loud crashing sound emanating bedroom. The noise resembled that of a collapsing and the subsequent falling of all items stored in the garret onto the floor. I on my bed, I hastily vacated discerned that the sole object that had descended was the stack of containers that my spouse had previously arranged in the corner to organize closet. There was no evidence of any objects having fallen from an attic, as no such space existed within structure. Remained undamaged, and I emerged unscathed.

David Goleman

The current geopolitical situation is a far cry from David Goleman's reflection. The tension between the United States, China, and Russia has reached a point where it is almost boiling over.

The role of language in shaping a state and accomplishing political goals is of utmost importance. Political linguistics can be a potent instrument for persuasion in the realm of politics, particularly in the context of speeches and campaigns. In a world that is politically fragmented, it is imperative that language is inclusive and demonstrates respect for diverse perspectives. It is imperative to refrain from using language that is divisive and inflammatory as it has the potential to exacerbate polarization and conflict. It is imperative to pursue shared interests and endeavor to comprehend divergent perspectives by means of transparent and productive discourse.

On September 22, 2021, an article authored by Ted Anthony for the Associated Press reported that China's President Xi Jinping, following in the footsteps of U.S. President Joe Biden, utilized a composed pre-recorded video message during the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly.

“China's President Xi Jinping remark, in which he underscored his country's unwavering dedication to multilateralism. President Jinping also urged nations to engage in dialogue and cooperation to resolve disputes. The statement pertains to the escalating tensions between China and the United States.  President Xi emphasized the importance of ensuring that the success of one country does not impede the progress of another, and that the global community has ample space for collaborative development and advancement of all nations.

On March 27, 2022, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) published an article written by Anthony Zurcher, titled "Reflections on Why Biden's Off-Script Remarks About Putin Are So Dangerous.  The article delves into the potential consequences of President Biden's unscripted comments regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin over the past week, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, delivered a series of impromptu statements that have significantly escalated the tension between the United States and Russia, bringing it to a point of almost reaching its boiling point.

As contrast tone in a recent statement from the White House, Mr Henry Kissinger, the former Secretary of State, “cautioned that in situations where two powers of comparable strength are in opposition, it frequently leads to military confrontation. The necessity for well-defined principles in managing conflicts bears resemblance to the period preceding the onset of World War I. The outstanding question pertains to the viability of harmonious cohabitation between China and the United States and whether it can be attained without the potential risk of military conflict. Kissinger proposes the implementation of measures aimed at promoting competition in strategic domains, alongside the creation of a continuous high-level dialogue between Beijing and Washington.

In this blog post that President Jose Biden, —considering his age— aspires to be commemorated from a historical perspective. Nothing strange in the longing if it is based on convectional parameters. Older people tend to be more reckless... Why, the answer is very easy, and they have nothing to lose... “The proposal put forth by Mr Kissinger to improve communication between Beijing and Washington has not received widespread support. The current crisis has been intensified by recent events, including the deployment of armaments by NATO against Russia and China's assertion that Russia's intervention in Ukraine was a result of a flawed security framework in Europe. This has contributed to an escalation of tensions and a deterioration of diplomatic relations between the involved parties. The use of the —law of club— as a mechanism for preserving order in contemporary society is a subject of apprehension and is commonly viewed as antiquated.

“China has responded to recent comments made by US President Joe Biden, in which he referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "dictator," by accusing the US of engaging in political provocation.

The possibility of a third nuclear age in Ukraine is concerning. According to Olivier Zajec's article in Le Monde Diplomatic, the situation is still being determined. It's important to remember that the first atomic age was based on deterrence, while the second was focused on eliminating nuclear weapons. However, we may face a much more dangerous and uncertain situation with the current state of affairs. Leaders must consider the consequences and take responsibility to prevent catastrophic outcomes.

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Most Read…

La menace d’une guerre nucléaire en Europe…

By using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe,’ the influential political scientist Sergey Karaganov wrote in a 13 June article published by his think tank, the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. In this terrifying piece, Karaganov, who is close to Putin, explained that to avoid a stalemate in the war and ‘break the West’s will to support the Kiev junta’, Moscow should resort to targeted nuclear strikes on European cities. ‘The most striking characteristic of the war in Ukraine is its nuclear backdrop,’ observed Olivier Zajec in April 2022. ‘Events are unfolding as if the world was hurriedly relearning the vocabulary and fundamentals of nuclear strategy, forgotten since the cold war.’

By Olivier Zajec, June Editions, 2023, Le Monde Diplomatique

Special focus on natural resources

Energy: conflicts, illusions, solutions

“Reflections from Le Monde Diplomatique …

Siemens Energy's wind turbine troubles to last years, shares tumble

On Friday, Siemens Energy's share price took a sharp dip, marking the most significant drop since the company's spin-off from Siemens and separate listing in 2020. The sudden decline has caught the attention of many investors and analysts, who are closely monitoring the situation to see how it will impact the energy industry as a whole.

REUTERS By Sabine Wollrab, Maria Sheahan and Christoph Steitz, June 23, 2023

Governments at Paris summit to finalise climate finance roadmap

Almost 40 leaders to present plans for overhaul of public financial institutions including World Bank

The Guardian by Fiona Harvey in Paris, 23 Jun 2023 

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The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…

…”While there's significant disruption in Europe, renewable energy may accelerate in the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/02/while-theres-significant-disruption-in-europe-renewable-energy-may-accelerate-in-the-us-aes-ceo.html

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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La menace d’une guerre nucléaire en Europe…

By using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe,’ the influential political scientist Sergey Karaganov wrote in a 13 June article published by his think tank, the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. In this terrifying piece, Karaganov, who is close to Putin, explained that to avoid a stalemate in the war and ‘break the West’s will to support the Kiev junta’, Moscow should resort to targeted nuclear strikes on European cities. ‘The most striking characteristic of the war in Ukraine is its nuclear backdrop,’ observed Olivier Zajec in April 2022. ‘Events are unfolding as if the world was hurriedly relearning the vocabulary and fundamentals of nuclear strategy, forgotten since the cold war.’

By Olivier Zajec, June Editions, 2023, Le Monde Diplomatique

‘If we refuse to use them, why do we have them?’

The first nuclear age was marked by deterrence, the second by hopes that nuclear weapons might be eliminated. The war in Ukraine may herald a third nuclear age, much more dangerous and uncertain than what came before.

On 11 March, President Joe Biden sharply rejected politicians’ and experts’ calls for the United States to get more directly involved in the Ukraine war, ruling out direct conflict with Russia: ‘The idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews — just understand ... that’s called World War III’ (1). He nonetheless accepted war was possible if the Russian offensive spread to the territory of a NATO member state.

Thus a distinction was established between NATO’s territory (inviolable) and the territory of Ukraine, which falls into a unique geostrategic category: according to the US, maintaining this distinction will require an accurate understanding of the balance of power between the belligerents on the ground, strict control of the degree of operational involvement of Ukraine’s declared supporters (especially concerning the nature of arms transfers to Ukraine) and, above all, continual reassessment of the limits of Russia’s determination — all with a view to leaving room for a negotiated way out acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. Some trace the US’s caution back to a statement by Russia’s president Vladimir Putin on 24 February: ‘No matter who tries to stand in our way or ... create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.’ These words, and his order that Russia’s nuclear forces be placed on high alert (‘a special regime of combat duty’), amounted to attempted coercion, and could suggest that Biden’s reaction constituted backing down. In January, neoconservative New York Times columnist Bret Stephens had called for the revival of the concept of the ‘free world’, and warned, ‘The bully’s success ultimately depends on his victim’s psychological surrender’ (2).

One might argue that it is not for the bully to say how much aggression is ‘acceptable’ from countries that, with help from allies, seek to defend their own borders and their right to exist. Stephens’s warning could equally apply to past international crises, such as Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. But the territory being invaded today is Ukraine, which is far bigger. And the aggressor — Russia — has strategic arguments entirely different from those of Saddam Hussein.

‘Scenarios for use of nuclear arms’

To help understand the issues at stake in US-Russian relations today, and Joe Biden’s irritation with the extreme positions of some of his fellow Americans and some allies, it’s worth recalling Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov’s 2018 statement that Russia’s nuclear doctrine ‘has unambiguously limited the threshold of use of nuclear weapons to two ... hypothetical, entirely defensive scenarios. They are as follows: [first,] in response to an act of aggression against Russia and/or against our allies if nuclear or other types of mass destruction weapons are used and [second,] with use of conventional arms but only in case our state’s very existence would be in danger’ (3).

Nuclear doctrines are made to be interpreted, and Russia experts have long debated exactly how (4). In Foreign Affairs, Olga Oliker, director of International Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia programme, writes that ‘although it has not been used before, Putin’s phrase “a special regime of combat duty” does not appear to signal a serious change in Russia’s nuclear posture’ (5).

But, at least in terms of how the present crisis is perceived, we cannot ignore the implications of the second scenario in Lavrov’s 2018 statement — an existential threat to Russia. Do Russia’s leaders really see Ukraine’s strategic status, and therefore its potential NATO accession, as critical? If they do, that would explain why, contrary to all normal logic and political good sense, they have given NATO a reason to make a stand and irretrievably damaged Russia’s international standing by deciding it is rational to attack Ukraine unilaterally — and then opting for a blunt ‘nuclearisation’ of their crisis diplomacy, so as to keep other potential belligerents out of the conflict.

Is this just a cynical manoeuvre, banking on Western weakness and hesitation, to give Russia the greatest possible freedom to act? Former British prime minister Tony Blair asks on his thinktank’s website: ‘Is it sensible to tell [Putin] in advance that whatever he does militarily, we will rule out any form of military response? Maybe that is our position and maybe that is the right position, but continually signalling it, and removing doubt in his mind, is a strange tactic’ (6).

Who would take responsibility?

Yet although diplomatic manoeuvring is clearly going on, who — with responsibility for what comes next — would be able to say today precisely to what extent this Russian cynicism, which seeks to achieve its objectives through aggressive drawing of red lines, also stems from strategic conviction fuelled by frustrations that have come to a head? We should not underestimate the dangers of this mixture if the West were to test Russia’s siege mentality head on in Ukraine.

Others asked these questions, well before Biden. In the first days of the October 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the US joint chiefs of staff were taking a hard line, President John F Kennedy expressed the key issues not in military terms, but in terms of perception. He told a meeting of ExComm (the Executive Committee of the National Security Council), ‘Let me just say a little, first, about what the problem is, from my point of view ... we ought to think of why the Russians did this.’

The declassified archives on this key moment in history reveal that Kennedy talked of a blockade, of the importance of giving Khrushchev a way out, and of avoiding escalation to nuclear weapons, all while preserving the US’s international credibility. General Curtis E LeMay, US Air Force chief of staff, replied, ‘This blockade and political action, I see leading into war ... This is almost as bad as the appeasement at Munich.’ The joint chiefs were unanimous in recommending immediate military action. Kennedy thanked them, dryly, and, in the days that followed, did the exact opposite.

‘And [the joint chiefs] were wrong,’ historian Martin J Sherwin concludes in a recent book on decision-making processes in nuclear crises. ‘Had the president not insisted on a blockade, had he accepted the chiefs’ recommendations (also favoured by the majority of his ExComm advisers), he unwittingly would have precipitated a nuclear war’ (7).

The central issue is indeed the significance of the nuclear signalling in which Russia has wrapped its premeditated conventional attack. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky doubts Putin will really use nuclear weapons: ‘I think that the threat of nuclear war is a bluff. It’s one thing to be a murderer. It’s another to commit suicide. Every use of nuclear weapons means the end for all sides, not just for the person using them’ (8).

At the risk of appearing spineless, Biden seems to have reserved judgment. For the moment he is restraining his most aggressive allies, such as Poland, and focusing on the coercive force of the economic sanctions, rather than any initiative that might give Putin an excuse for escalation — starting with the use of tactical nuclear weapons, of which Russia is thought to have around 2,000.

‘Putin is bluffing on nuclear’

Is Biden wrong? On 14 March General Rick J Hillier, former chief of Canada’s defence staff, told CBS that NATO should impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine because Putin was bluffing. John Feehery, former communications director to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, thought so too: ‘Biden’s weakness on Ukraine invited [the] Russian invasion ... When Putin hinted that he was willing to use nuclear weapons to achieve his goals, Biden said that we weren’t going to use ours, which seems to me to defeat the purpose of having those weapons in the first place. If we refuse to use them, why do we have them?’ (9). Stanford historian Niall Ferguson agrees: ‘Putin is bluffing on nuclear, we shouldn’t have backed down.’ And is dismayed that ‘media coverage has become so sentimental and ignorant of military realities’ (10).

But what are these military ‘realities’? What is the nature of the problem? It’s the possibility that Russia will resort to first use of nuclear weapons in an armed conflict that is already under way. Nina Tannenwald, whose book The Nuclear Taboo (Cambridge, 2007) has become a key text in international relations, believes the risk is too great, and supports the US’s wait-and-see strategy: ‘Despite scattered calls in the US for the creation of a “no-fly zone” over some or all of Ukraine, the Biden administration has widely resisted. In practice, this could mean shooting down Russian planes. It could lead to World War III’ (11).

The most striking characteristic of the war in Ukraine is its nuclear backdrop. Events are unfolding as if the world was hurriedly relearning the vocabulary and fundamentals of nuclear strategy, forgotten since the cold war. This is certainly true of Western media and governments, as they become conscious of the potentially destructive sequences of events that link the operational-tactical and politico-strategic dimensions of the present tragedy. The bellicose declarations of some experts in the early days of the war have given way to calmer analysis. In many ways, it’s high time; Kharkiv is not Kabul. Especially given the recent worrying developments in the nuclear debate.

Until relatively recently, the nuclear orthodoxy established after the cold war, as the two superpowers reduced their strategic arsenals, had placed some nuclear weapons in a kind of peripheral area of the doctrine: those known as ‘tactical’ because of their lesser power and range. From 1945 to the 1960s, they had been a key part of US war plans, especially for the European theatre. At the time, the aim was to counter the Soviet Union’s conventional superiority with overwhelming nuclear superiority, to deny the battlefield to the enemy. US secretary of state John Foster Dulles, author of the ‘massive retaliation’ doctrine, stated in 1955, ‘The United States in particular has sea and air forces now equipped with new and powerful weapons of precision which can utterly destroy military targets without endangering unrelated civilian centers’ (12). President Dwight D Eisenhower declared, ‘I see no reason why they shouldn’t be used just exactly as you would use a bullet or anything else.’

However, from the 1960s, the prospect of ‘mutual assured destruction’ reduced the likelihood that tactical nuclear weapons would be used, because of the risk of escalation. The concept of a ‘limited nuclear strike’ gradually came to be seen as dangerous sophistry. Regardless of experts who were certain that a nuclear war could be ‘won’ by ‘graduating’ one’s nuclear response, and controlling the ‘ladders of escalation’ (the best known being Herman Kahn of the Hudson Institute), even a nuclear weapon (arbitrarily) labelled as ‘tactical’ still had the potential to lead to total destruction. The works of Thomas Schelling, especially The Strategy of Conflict (1960) and Strategy and Arms Control (1961) contributed to this new awareness.

Options for US decision makers

The rejection of graduation became a distinguishing characteristic of France’s nuclear doctrine. While reserving the option of a ‘unique and non-renewable’ warning shot, President Emmanuel Macron said in February 2020 that France had always ‘refused to consider nuclear weapons as a weapon of battle.’ He also insisted that France would ‘never engage in a nuclear battle or any form of graduated response’ (13).

Prior to the 2010s, it seemed possible that other nuclear-weapon states could adopt such a doctrinal stance, coupled with the ‘minimum necessary’ nuclear arsenal (France had fewer than 300 warheads). And it was possible to believe that, with a few exceptions (such as Pakistan), tactical nuclear weapons had ‘faded into the background of military and political planning and rhetoric’ (14).

Despite scattered calls in the US for the creation of a ‘no-fly zone' over some or all of Ukraine, the Biden administration has widely resisted. In practice, this could mean shooting down Russian planes. It could lead to World War IIINina Tannenwald

But over the last decade, the trend has reversed. In the world of strategic studies, there has been a return to ‘theories of [nuclear] victory’. Their proponents draw on the work of past scholars such as Henry Kissinger, who wondered in his 1957 book Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy if extending the American deterrent to all of Europe at a time when the threat of total destruction hung over the US itself would actually work: ‘A reliance on all-out war as the chief deterrent saps our system of alliances in two ways: either our allies feel that any military effort on their part is unnecessary or they may be led to the conviction that peace is preferable to war even on terms almost akin to surrender ... As the implication of all-out war with modern weapons become better understood ... it is not reasonable to assume that the United Kingdom, and even more the United States, would be prepared to commit suicide in order to defend a particular area ... whatever its importance, to an enemy’ (15).

One of the recommended solutions was to bring tactical nuclear weapons back into the dialectic of deterrence extended to allied territories, so as to give US decision makers a range of options between Armageddon and defeat without a war. Global deterrence was ‘restored’ by creating additional rungs on the ladder of escalation, which were supposed to enable a sub-apocalyptic deterrence dialogue — before one major adversary or the other felt its key interests were threatened and resorted to extreme measures. Many theorists in the 1970s took this logic further, in particular Colin Gray in a 1979 article, now back in fashion, titled ‘Nuclear Strategy: the case for a theory of victory’ (16).

Theoreticians of nuclear victory today reject the ‘paralysis’ that comes with an excessively rigid vision of deterrence. Their strategic beliefs were semi-officialised in the Trump administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (17). What influence have these theories had on Russia? Has the Kremlin chosen to combine nuclear and conventional deterrents in an operational continuum? Whatever the case, authors who defend the idea of using tactical (‘low-yield’ or ‘ultra-low yield’) nuclear weapons emphasise the importance of countering adversaries who adopt hybrid strategies. Rogue states without a nuclear deterrent will increasingly be tempted to present a fait accompli, banking on nuclear-weapon states’ risk aversion, at least when the latter face a crisis that does not affect their own national territory.

Uncertainties of deterrence dialogue

This shows how Kissinger’s 1957 discussion of the intrinsic weaknesses of wider nuclear deterrence remains pertinent today. The benefits would be even greater for a state with a nuclear deterrent — a nuclear-weapon state behaving like a rogue state. This is exactly what Russia is doing in Ukraine. The West’s hesitation to adopt an over-vigorous response that could lead to nuclear escalation is amplified by its realisation of how history would view whichever party — aggressor or victim — became the first to break the nuclear taboo since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. International Crisis Group’s Olga Oliker admits that ‘such caution and concessions may not bring emotional satisfaction; there is certainly a visceral appeal to proposals that would have NATO forces directly help Ukraine. But these would dramatically heighten the risk that the war becomes a wider, potentially nuclear conflict. Western leaders should therefore reject them out of hand. Literally nothing else could be more dangerous.’

The ‘Third Nuclear Age’, heralded by various crises over the last decade, has dawned in Ukraine. In 2018 Admiral Pierre Vandier, now chief of staff of the French navy, offered a precise definition of this shift to the new strategic era, which has begun with Russia’s invasion: ‘A number of indicators suggest that we are entering a new era, a Third Nuclear Age, following the first, defined by mutual deterrence between the two superpowers, and the second, which raised hopes of a total and definitive elimination of nuclear weapons after the cold war’ (18).

This third age will bring new questions on the reliability — and relevance — of ‘logical rules ... painfully learned, as during the Cuban [missile] crisis’ (19). There will be questions about the rationality of new actors using their nuclear deterrents. The worth of the nuclear taboo, which some today treat as absolute, will be reappraised.

‘Unleashed power of the atom’

Questions like ‘If we refuse to use them, why do we have them?’ suggest Albert Einstein’s warning from 1946 may still be pertinent: ‘The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking.’ Yet Einstein was already wrong. Huge numbers of papers were hurriedly written to explain the balances and imbalances of the deterrence dialogue. The current usefulness of these historical, theoretical documents is highly variable, as their logic often reaches absurd conclusions. Yet they include some intelligent analyses that shed light on the Ukrainian nuclear crisis.

Columbia professor Robert Jervis (20), a pioneer of political psychology in international relations, sought to demonstrate that it was possible to overcome the security anxieties that cause each actor to see his own actions as defensive, and those of his competitor as ‘naturally’ offensive. Jervis maintained that breaking the insecurity cycle caused by this distortion meant developing exchanges of signals that would make it possible to differentiate between offensive and defensive weapons in the arsenals of one’s adversaries. And his adaptation of prospect theory to nuclear crises opens up possibilities of interpreting Russia’s behaviour differently, suggesting for example that the adoption of aggressive tactics is more often motivated by aversion to loss than by hopes of gain.

In a nuclear crisis, all strategies are sub-optimal. One, however, is worse than all the rest: claiming that the adversary’s leader is insane, while simultaneously treating the standoff as a game of chicken. This will lead either to mutual destruction or to defeat without a war. Over the past few weeks, some seem to have accepted that this worst of all possible choices is worthy of being called a strategy.

Olivier Zajec is a lecturer in political science at Jean Moulin Lyon III University’s law faculty.

Translated by Charles Goulden

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Image by Le Monde Diplomatique / cc p_v a l d i v i e s o

Special focus on natural resources

Energy: conflicts, illusions, solutions

“Reflections from Le Monde Diplomatique …

Oil, gas, coal, uranium: these words make up the language of power, and the countries that forgot it were reminded by the war in Ukraine. Today we can add solar, wind and hydrogen to this vocabulary. How much are the business sector’s green schemes worth? Will a real energy transition also require a social transformation? There is no shortage of ideas around to reconcile concerns about the end of the world with concerns about the end of the month.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Flags are seen at Siemens Energy's site on the day of German Chancellor OIaf Scholz's visit, during which he saw a gas turbine meant to be transported to the compressor station of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Russia, in Muelheim an der Ruhr, Germany, August 3, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/FILE PHOTO

Siemens Energy's wind turbine troubles to last years, shares tumble

On Friday, Siemens Energy's share price took a sharp dip, marking the most significant drop since the company's spin-off from Siemens and separate listing in 2020. The sudden decline has caught the attention of many investors and analysts, who are closely monitoring the situation to see how it will impact the energy industry as a whole.

REUTERS By Sabine Wollrab, Maria Sheahan and Christoph Steitz, June 23, 2023

FRANKFURT/BERLIN, June 23 (Reuters) - Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) had one third wiped off its market value on Friday after warning that the impact of quality problems at its Siemens Gamesa wind turbine business could cost more than 1 billion euros ($1.09 billion) and take years to fix.

The group scrapped its 2023 profit outlook late on Thursday after a review of its wind turbine division exposed deeper-than-expected problems.

"This is a disappointing and severe setback," Siemens Gamesa CEO Jochen Eickholt told journalists on a call.

"I have said several times that there is actually nothing visible at Siemens Gamesa that I have not seen elsewhere. But I have to tell you that I would not say that again today."

Siemens Energy's share price plunge on Friday was the biggest since the group was spun off from Siemens (SIEGn.DE) and separately listed in 2020.

Shares in the group, which supplies equipment and services to the power sector, were down 31.5% at 0842 GMT.

Traders and analysts said the extent of the company's latest problems was still uncertain.

"Even though it should be clear to everyone, I would like to emphasise again how bitter this is for all of us," Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch told journalists in a call.

Finance chief Maria Ferraro earlier told analysts that the majority of the hit would be over the next five years.

"Given the history and nature of the wind industry, the profit warning was not a complete surprise, but what surprised us was the magnitude," analysts at JPMorgan said.

Issues at Siemens Gamesa have been a drag on its parent for a long time, prompting Siemens Energy to take full control of the business earlier this month after only partially owning it for several years.

Deka Investment, a top-20 shareholder, said Siemens Energy would have to work hard to regain market confidence.

"The renewed profit warning is a bitter setback that undoes the very good work of the management team in one fell swoop," Deka Investment's Ingo Speich told Reuters.

Deepening troubles at Siemens Energy could also weigh on efforts by Siemens AG (SIEGn.DE), which still owns nearly a third of Siemens Energy and remains its largest shareholder, to divest its stake at an attractive price and exit the company.

Siemens AG declined to comment on Friday.

PROBLEMS 'SWEPT UNDER CARPET'

The discovery of faulty components at Siemens Gamesa in January had already caused a charge of nearly half a billion euros.

Eickholt said that while rotor blades and bearings were partly to blame for the turbine problems, it could not be ruled out that design issues also played a role.

Bruch also blamed the corporate culture at Siemens Gamesa, the result of a merger of the wind turbine division of Siemens and Spain's Gamesa, saying: "Too much has been swept under the carpet".

He said that the setback from the quality problems was "more severe than I thought possible". At the same time, he said he did not believe that the full takeover of Siemens Gamesa had been a mistake.

Bruch said that the company would be able to provide a more accurate estimate of the costs from the latest problems by the time it publishes its third-quarter results on Aug. 7, after a full analysis of the situation.

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The US climate envoy John Kerry (left) and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, take part in a discussion during the summit in Paris on Thursday. Photograph: Ludovic Marin/EPA

Governments at Paris summit to finalise climate finance roadmap

Almost 40 leaders to present plans for overhaul of public financial institutions including World Bank

The Guardian by Fiona Harvey in Paris, 23 Jun 2023 

Questions over a tax on global shipping and other big sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and how countries should go about setting up a loss and damage fund continue to be the subject of fierce discussion, as governments meet in Paris to prepare an overhaul of global development and climate finance.

Nearly 40 heads of state and government and a similar number of ministers and high-level representatives will finalise a roadmap for the reform of the world’s public finance institutions, including the World Bank, and of overseas aid and climate finance.

Governments at the two-day finance summit in Paris will now be ordered to present concrete proposals on a loss and damage fund, to be directed at the rescue and reconstruction of countries stricken by climate disaster, before the UN Cop28 climate summit this November. This must include proposals for how to fill that fund, including potential new taxes on fossil fuels.

A draft of the roadmap seen by the Guardian, dated 20 June and discussed on Thursday at the first day of the Paris summit for a new global financing pact, sets out six pages of proposals for delivery at carefully choreographed points up to September 2024. It includes items for delivery at future meetings of the G20 summit, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings in October, Cop28 and other international meetings, up to the Summit for the Future to be held next September.

Some of these aims have already been partly achieved at the current Paris summit, hosted by the French president, Emmanuel Macron. For instance, the World Bank has agreed to start suspending debt payments for countries hit by climate disaster. However, so far these “climate resilient debt clauses” will only apply to new loan agreements, rather than being applied to existing loans.

Taxes are likely to prove a difficult point. The EU wants more countries to use emissions trading to raise funds for climate action, but some developing countries are less keen on the prospect, which they regard as complex and more suitable for use in advanced economies.

John Kerry, the special envoy for climate to the US president, Joe Biden, said the White House did not have a position on potential taxes on shipping, aviation or fossil fuels. “I support some kind of revenue raising on a broad basis, but this is not administration policy,” he told journalists, in answer to a question from the Guardian. “I personally have supported pricing carbon, but I’m not advocating a tax or a fee or anything at this point. Certainly the administration is not, but we have to find a way to find more concessionary funding.”

He also indicated that China should be a potential donor to a loss and damage fund. “You’ve got to look at this [fund] and say what’s fair, what makes sense. And people are going to ask themselves all around the world: ‘Do you think that the second largest economy in the world ought to put something into it?’ I can’t imagine people who say no, that doesn’t make sense. So that’s the kind of thing we have to work at. It’s the kind of thing we’ve got to have a discussion about.”

Absent from the draft proposals seen by the Guardian is the commitment to triple the finance available from the World Bank, which has been supported by Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados.

However, if the changes to the World Bank and its fellow institutions are carried out, then a significant expansion of publicly funded development banks’ ability to lend could follow.

The planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essential

The proposals range from the highly detailed, including ways of sharing data on developing countries with private investors to help them draw up improved risk profiles on countries less likely to default on debt, to the broad brush, such as the launch of an independent body to facilitate links between countries and funds so that climate financing works a little more smoothly.

Experts are also asked to come up with a definition of “vulnerable countries”, to target those most at risk from the effects of the climate crisis and least able to build resilience against disaster.

Alex Scott of the E3G thinktank said: “If this [draft roadmap] is what comes out, we and campaigners would be very happy with this. It is a concrete roadmap that would be a clear and credible sign that this agenda for solving problems with the financial system is on its way. It sets actions governments have to take, and there are lots of ideas in here that are needed.”

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News round-up, June 21, 2023

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Quote of the day…

Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says

…”Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy

The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, 20 June 2023

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Most Read…

Biden equates China's Xi with 'dictators' at donors reception

Speaking at a campaign fundraiser in California, Biden said said Xi had been angered over an incident in February when a Chinese spy balloon was shot down by American military jets.

Le Monde with AFP,  Published today at 5:10 am (Paris)

U.S. Tracked Huawei, ZTE Workers at Suspected Chinese Spy Sites in Cuba

Intelligence bolstered suspicions telecom giants might be playing role in expansion of China’s capabilities on island

WSJ by Kate O’Keeffe, updated June 21, 2023 

How Europe's polluting industries turned free CO₂ quotas into a market worth billions

'The right to pollute' (1/2). Cement and steel manufacturers have used a European Union aid system to boost their profits.

Le Monde by Guillaume Delacroix, Emmanuelle Picaud and Luc Martinon, published today at 5:00 am (Paris) 

Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says

Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy

The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, 20 June 2023

Clean Geothermal, Green Earth: Sinopec to Host World Geothermal Congress 2023

In 22 cities, Sinopec Star has built 10 "smoke-free cities" and has installed more than 1 million square meters of geothermal heating. Over 85 million square meters of clean energy heating capacity have been built in Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong provinces, and more, reducing carbon emissions by 4.2 million tons and benefiting millions of households. 

BEIJING, June 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ 

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The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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President Biden equates China's Xi with 'dictators' / Image by Germán & Co

Biden equates China's Xi with 'dictators' at donors reception

Speaking at a campaign fundraiser in California, Biden said said Xi had been angered over an incident in February when a Chinese spy balloon was shot down by American military jets.

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Crossing the line can be dangerous…

In September 2002, I published on Energycentral.com an essay titled: *"Beware of Starving the Enemy of Oxygen." The paper delved into the dangerous tactic of depriving the adversary of oxygen. The praxis entails maintaining an open door to any potential solution that has been identified. The article "Biden Shows Growing Appetite to Cross Putin's Red Lines," published in the Wall Street Journal, offers valuable insights into President Biden's inclination to confront the limitations imposed by the Russian leader, Putin. Despite the suspicions of a potential global conflict, this action is a subject of significant apprehension. The former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, has warned that when two powers of similar strength oppose, it often results in armed conflict. The need for clearly defined principles for conflict management is reminiscent of the period preceding the onset of World War I. The unresolved inquiry concerns the feasibility of peaceful coexistence between China and the United States and whether it can be achieved without the potential risk of military conflict. Kissinger proposes the implementation of measures to foster competition in strategic domains, as well as the establishment of an ongoing high-level dialogue between Beijing and Washington. Unfortunately, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of reports concerning drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military installations. The extent of these attacks has exceeded the confines of the front line. It can be categorized as shaping operations, which may serve as a preliminary step towards a counteroffensive by Kyiv. The recent fire incident at the Afipsky refinery has brought attention to the potential outcomes and advantages of pushing against the limits set by President Putin, as there is a possibility that a drone caused the incident.

*HTTPS://ENERGYCENTRAL.COM/C/OG/BEWARE-STARVING-ENEMY-OXYGEN

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US President Joe Biden (R) and China's President Xi Jinping (L) meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on November 14, 2022. SAUL LOEB / AFP

US President Joe Biden equated his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping with "dictators" on Tuesday, June 20, as he addressed a Democratic Party donors reception in the presence of journalists.

Speaking at a campaign fundraiser in northern California, Biden said Xi had been angered over an incident in February when a Chinese balloon, which Washington says was used for spying, flew over the United States before being shot down by American military jets.

"The reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment is he didn't know it was there," Biden said. "I'm serious. That was the great embarrassment for dictators, when they didn't know what happened. "That wasn't supposed to be going where it was (...) and he didn't know about it," Biden said of Xi. "When it got shot down he was very embarrassed and he denied it was even there."

Biden, who at 80 is running for re-election, on Tuesday waived off concerns about the Asian giant, telling donors that "China has real economic difficulties." The remarks are likely to raise strong objections from Beijing, where US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited just days earlier in an attempt to lower the temperature between the two global powers.

Still on the subject of China and Xi, Biden said "we're in a situation now where he wants to have a relationship again." Blinken "did a good job" on his Beijing trip, but "it's going to take time," Biden added.

The US president did bring up another prickly point regarding communist-ruled China: a recent summit in which leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the US, known as the Quad group, sought to boost peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific maritime region. The four countries are "working hand in glove in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean," Biden said. "What he [Xi] was really upset about was that I insisted that we unite the (...) so-called Quad," Biden said.

Tuesday was not the first time Biden has made significant, even provocative, statements at fund-raising receptions, usually small-scale events at which cameras and recordings are forbidden but where journalists may listen to and transcribe the president's opening remarks. At one such event last October, for example, Biden spoke of the threat of nuclear "Armageddon" from Russia.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Despite U.S. restrictions on Huawei, exporters have sold large amounts of technology to the Chinese company. PHOTO: ERIC GAILLARD/REUTERS/ Editing by Germán & Co 

U.S. Tracked Huawei, ZTE Workers at Suspected Chinese Spy Sites in Cuba

Intelligence bolstered suspicions telecom giants might be playing role in expansion of China’s capabilities on island

WSJ by Kate O’Keeffe, updated June 21, 2023 

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…”China's military involvement in the region is a cause for concern. They supply armaments, train personnel, send warships and military delegations, and covertly involve themselves in strategic infrastructure development, such as ports (Honduras). Recent information on a base in Cuba highlights the extent of their involvement.

Ursula von der Leyen's perilous journey to Latin America as President of the European Union by Germán & Co , 20 June, 2023

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WASHINGTON—During the Trump administration, U.S. officials reviewed intelligence that tracked workers from the Chinese telecom giants Huawei Technologies and ZTE entering and exiting facilities suspected of housing Chinese eavesdropping operations in Cuba, according to people familiar with the matter. 

The intelligence contributed to suspicions within the Trump administration that the telecommunications companies might be playing a role in expanding China’s ability to spy on the U.S. from the island, according to people familiar with the matter. It couldn’t be learned whether the Biden administration has pursued that line of inquiry.

While neither Huawei nor ZTE is known to make the sophisticated tools governments would use for eavesdropping, both specialize in the technology needed to facilitate such an operation, such as servers and network equipment that could be used to transmit data to China, the people familiar with the matter said.

In a statement, Huawei said it denied “such groundless accusations,” adding that it was “committed to full compliance with the applicable laws and regulations where we operate. ”ZTE didn’t respond to a request for comment.

China has maintained a spy base in Cuba since at least 2019, when Donald Trump was president, and the two countries already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. In addition, Beijing and Havana are negotiating to establish a new joint military training facility on Cuba’s northern coast, The Wall Street Journal has reported. 

Beijing’s efforts to expand its intelligence gathering from Cuba are ongoing, the White House has said. Following a 2019 upgrade to its intelligence-collection facilities on the island, Beijing “will keep trying to enhance its presence in Cuba, and we will keep working to disrupt it,” a White House official said Monday.

U.S. officials have long said China’s government might use the nation’s telecom companies to spy. The U.S. has been engaged in a yearslong campaign to persuade allies to shut Huawei in particular out of their next-generation telecommunications networks. Huawei has said it wouldn’t spy for China.

The Chinese Embassy didn’t respond to requests for comment. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has denied that China is spying in Cuba. The Cuban Embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment, but has called the Journal’s earlier report on a Chinese spy station on the island “totally mendacious and unfounded.” 

The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence didn’t respond to requests for comment.

On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had told his counterparts in Beijing that the U.S. had “deep concerns” about Chinese spying and military activities in Cuba. 

“This is something we’re going to be monitoring very, very closely, and we’ve been very clear about that,” he told reporters. “And we will protect our homeland; we will protect our interests.”

The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment on Huawei’s and ZTE’s potential roles in China’s spying operation in Cuba. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday it was “no secret or surprise that the PRC has been trying to improve their influence, their reach, and their intelligence collection capabilities in the Western Hemisphere and that includes the relationship that they had had for quite some time with Cuba.”

“It’s not like we aren’t aware of it, it’s not like we haven’t been monitoring it,” he said. “And quite frankly, it’s not like we haven’t taken steps and we’ll continue to take steps to thwart it and to be able to protect our own secrets and our own national security, and that’s the case in this space as well.”

Rep. Mike Gallagher (R., Wis.), chairman of the bipartisan Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, on Tuesday sent a letter to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Commerce Department Secretary Gina Raimondo seeking clarity on U.S. policies to control the export of U.S. technology to Chinese telecom companies.

In the letter, which was reviewed by the Journal, he said Huawei has assisted the Cuban government in modernizing its telecommunications and internet infrastructure since the 2000s and that the company, along with ZTE and Great Dragon Information Technology Group, maintains a regular business presence on the island. 

Great Dragon couldn’t be reached for comment.

Gallagher wrote that because of China’s official policy of using Chinese commercial entities to build up its military, any enhancement of China’s intelligence capabilities in Cuba “is likely” to be aided by Chinese telecommunications companies. 

He speculated that these companies’ existing business operations in Cuba could provide cover for Chinese intelligence officials to travel to and from the island without creating the same suspicion as official travel.

Gallagher posed a series of questions to the officials regarding the intelligence community’s awareness of the connections between Chinese signals-intelligence operations and commercial activities in Cuba and whether the information has been used to inform ongoing export-licensing decisions.

In 2019, the U.S. Commerce Department added Huawei to a so-called entity list requiring companies to get licenses to ship many goods to Huawei. In 2020, officials significantly expanded the licensing requirements. But the Commerce Department has issued many such licenses, enabling exporters to continue selling large amounts of tech to Huawei.

The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul (R., Texas), has been spearheading an effort to pressure the Commerce Department to change its policy. In 2021, he released data showing the department had granted 113 export licenses enabling companies to sell about $61 billion of goods to Huawei from Nov. 9, 2020, through April 20, 2021.

The Commerce Department had restricted exports to ZTE on and off since 2016 until Trump said in 2018 that he would allow the company to resume buying U.S. goods in exchange for a fine of $1.3 billion and a leadership shake-up. 

Alan Estevez, the Commerce Department’s undersecretary for industry and security, has told lawmakers that his team is reviewing its policies and doing everything possible to prevent sensitive U.S. technology from getting into the hands of adversaries.

A Commerce Department spokesman said Huawei still faces “significant export restrictions” and noted that the agency in April imposed the largest stand-alone civil penalty in its history against a U.S. company for selling hard-disk drives to Huawei without a license.

The spokesman added that ZTE remains subject to a settlement agreement with the Commerce Department that subjects it to additional oversight.

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Image by Germán & Co

How Europe's polluting industries turned free CO₂ quotas into a market worth billions

'The right to pollute' (1/2). Cement and steel manufacturers have used a European Union aid system to boost their profits.

Le Monde by Guillaume Delacroix, Emmanuelle Picaud and Luc Martinon, published today at 5:00 am (Paris) 

It's a 30-year story worth billions of euros. Thirty long years that will not go down in the European Union's (EU) history as the most successful in its fight against global warming. Three decades during which Europe's most polluting industries – steel, cement, oil, and aluminum, among others – received free CO2 emission quotas; a kind of "right to pollute" that is supposed to be reduced over time to encourage them to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

However, the scheme quickly became a financial tool enabling its beneficiaries to increase their profits through the resale of these quotas. Between 2013 and 2021 alone, the World Wide Fund for Nature estimates that the biggest emitting industries pocketed €98.5 billion, and only a quarter of this sum (€25 billion) was devoted to climate action.

The free quota system, which was launched on January 1, 2005, and is still in force, is set to disappear in 2034. On April 18, the European Parliament adopted a new climate plan to gradually replace it with a "carbon border adjustment mechanism" at the Union's borders, this time with the aim of making imports from the sectors with the highest CO2 emissions green. By opting for a simpler scheme, the EU did not officially make its mea culpa. But implicitly, that was the admission.

'Legal' detour

After eight months of investigation with financial support from the Investigative Journalism for Europe (IJ4EU) fund, Le Monde can reveal that this system, which was intended to be benevolent toward industrialists, has been diverted from its original purpose. Le Monde took a closer look at the steel and cement industries in France and Spain, which are two of the biggest beneficiaries.

An in-depth analysis of the financial transactions recorded by these players on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (SEQE-EU-ETS) confirms what some people have long assumed: Companies have resold part of their free allowances for hundreds of millions of euros, sometimes billions. But unlike the huge VAT fraud that rocked the scheme in its early days, costing EU countries €6 billion and leading to court convictions many years later, this form of embezzlement is legal.

This story began at the Rio Summit in 1992. It was then that the idea of a carbon tax on industries in developed countries, in a bid to make the economy more environmentally friendly, was born. The initiative failed to win the unanimous support of member states, with France in particular blocking the decision. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol put the issue back on the table. Al Gore, vice president of the United States, found the idea interesting but feared that this approach would not be approved by the US Congress. So, a system more compatible with the capitalist model had to be devised, with a view to a possible rapprochement of transatlantic markets in the future.

Europe then set up a carbon market, within which manufacturers could buy and sell quotas to regulate their CO2 emissions. "The EU created a market that had never existed before from scratch. It was a first in the history of mankind," said Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, director of the Europe program at the Institut de l'Economie pour le Climat. Today, this market is the world's leading financial center of its kind, although others are emerging, for example in China.

"From the outset, a number of key questions were raised. What model should be used to allocate the quotas that companies will trade with each other? Should they be given away for free or sold? Who will be covered by the measure? Will companies be able to save quotas from one year to the next?" said Julien Hanoteau, professor of economics and sustainable development at Kedge Business School in Aix-Marseille. A model was rapidly taking shape, even if it had not been met with unanimous approval. The European Union decided that every year it would allocate free CO2 quotas to manufacturers, based on the greenhouse gases they estimated they would emit over the following 12 months. One quota is equivalent to one tonne of CO2.

Sale of CO2 quotas with no strings attached

After one year, industrial facilities must surrender the number of allowances equivalent to their actual CO2 emissions. If they have emitted more CO2 than expected, they can buy additional allowances from companies that have not used all of theirs, according to the "polluter pays" principle devised by the market's creators. Conversely, if they have emitted less CO2 than expected, they can resell the surplus allowances they hold. Quotas have no sell-by date. And when they are in surplus, they become stocks in the form of simple financial assets that companies can sell at will, with no strings attached, or supplement by buying others on the market if the price of carbon has fallen.

In its 2022 annual report, ArcelorMittal stated that it held €154 million in "intangible financial assets" in respect of CO2 quotas on December 31, 2021, and €691 million on December 31, 2022, as noted by the London-based international journalist organization Finance Uncovered, which was contacted for the purposes of this investigation. This is the result, said the company, of "mature" purchases that have enabled it to strengthen the assets side of its balance sheet for considerable amounts.

The pilot phase of the European free quota scheme began 20 years ago in 2003. Distribution began timidly in 2005, reaching cruising speed in 2008. In retrospect, the initial logic was surprising. The more CO2 an industrial facility plans to emit, the more rights to pollute it receives. From 2008 until 2012, quotas were allocated on the basis of production years prior to the economic crisis. As a result, manufacturers received far more allowances than they actually needed. Some manufacturers themselves were quick to express reservations about the SEQE system's methods, such as the Spanish cement manufacturer Cementos Tudela Veguin and the French cement manufacturer Vicat.

"We told ourselves that we were on a slippery slope, that we were potentially going to have to give back the stocks granted in excess. We were aware that it couldn't last, that someone was going to ring the bell at some point," said Eric Bourdon, deputy managing director of the French cement manufacturer, which chose not to touch the surplus quotas that had been distributed to it, a strategy that ran counter to its competitors. "We sold a little at the beginning, but we stopped very quickly. We now have 4.5 million tonnes of CO2 quotas. We'll have to decide how best to use them," he said.

The allocation rules were changed in 2012 and again in 2018. But the excess has continued, as shown by the latest report on the state of the EU ETS, published in 2022 by the European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition. Cumulative surpluses of free allowances only stabilized in 2013, and even then at a very high level, for the equivalent of 1.3 billion tonnes of CO2 per year. And it was only in 2017 that CO2 emissions across all sectors began to fall significantly.

'A market created from scratch'

MEP Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, France's Green party), who has been calling for the abolition of free quotas for years, is bitterly disappointed. "The public authorities have created a market from scratch, accepting from the outset all the intolerable excesses of the financialization of the economy," said the former Green candidate in the 2022 presidential election. "The State could very well have recuperated the money generated by the sale of quotas to environmentally compensate polluting activities, lower VAT or to reduce income tax. However, this is not the choice that was made, but instead to let companies operate freely," said Hanoteau.

Allowances are auctioned every morning at 11 am. In the early days, transactions represented a few million tonnes of CO2 per day. Since then, the market has become more sophisticated. It now covers almost 18,000 installations, and manufacturers, through banks, investment funds, brokers and a dozen trading companies, now trade 20 to 30 million tonnes of CO2 every day, anticipating future variations in the price of carbon.

"The market has become very attractive to investors. The price of carbon was initially €7 per tonne, in August 2008 it rose to €24, and now it's hovering around €100. Some predict that it will reach €150 in 2030, and in the meantime, more than 80% of transactions are speculative rather than related to environmental issues," said Ismael Romeo, director of SendeCO2, a trading company based in Barcelona.

Ivan Pavlovic, an energy transition specialist at Natixis (a subsidiary of the Banque Populaire Caisse d'Epargne group), confirmed this: "Even if they remain a minority for the moment, speculative investment funds specializing in carbon markets, which bet on these quotas, now exist." In 2021, almost 11 billion tonnes of CO2 were traded on the market, with a value of €683 billion, said British financial analysis company Refinitiv.

'It's a black box'

The system soon proved to be flawed. Transactions were difficult to trace, even for experts in the field. "The system is rather esoteric. At all levels, including the European Commission, nobody has a global, unanimous vision. It's a black box. Only the financial directors or industrial directors of the companies concerned know exactly what is being done with these quotas," said the head of a CO2 quota trading company.

Sometimes, transactions are not only justified by financial reasoning. "They can also be inspired by climatic or political events. Energy companies, which were excluded from the system of free quotas in 2013 because they used them to increase the price of electricity, are obliged to buy them at their own expense. They may resell them at the end of the winter if the temperature was higher than expected and their CO2 emissions were consequently lower. The same applies if there is inflation in energy prices, as in the summer of 2022, when gas prices soared," said Gregory Idil, a trader at Vertis Environmental Finance, a Brussels-based company.

In any case, companies are reluctant to disclose this information, which they consider sensitive for their industrial competitiveness. "Transactions are a reflection of economic activity. If a company says it has sold quotas, it is potentially acknowledging that its production has fallen," said Barcelona-based trader Romeo. Not everyone is equal when it comes to the right to pollute. British Steel learned this the hard way. After getting rid of its free quotas to make up for its financial losses, it had to buy back pollution rights to be able to continue its activities and be authorized to emit CO2. Except that, in the meantime, the price of carbon had soared. In the end, the company became over-indebted and, a victim of its speculation, it eventually went bankrupt in 2019.

Opacity

Quota sales are subject to "business secrecy." This was an argument put forward by several of the companies interviewed by Le Monde when commenting on the information in our database. In Spain, cement manufacturers referred us to their employers' federation, Oficemen, for consolidated sector data. But the federation refused to comment. "Oficemen doesn't have any data. These questions relate to specific company issues. Only they can answer you," said a spokesperson. None of them did.

Another difficulty is that the financial transactions carried out by each of the 18,000 industrial sites that benefited from free allowances are published retrospectively by the EU, with a three-year time lag. At present, while allocations of free allowances are known up to 2022, the latest available figures for resales are for 2019. And they don't tell the whole story.

As some plants have changed hands, it is impossible to reconstruct the history of transactions site by site. The European Union Transaction Logs (EUTL) – which Le Monde worked on with the help of the database on the EUETS.info website, make it possible to trace, by date and time, the exchanges of allowances carried out between operators. However, they do not reveal any changes in ownership of industrial facilities that may have occurred over the period studied (2005-2019), which contributes to the opacity of this market.

Swiss cement manufacturer Holcim refused to comment on the figures, on the grounds that its scope of consolidation has changed since its 2015 merger with Lafarge, which led to the sale of cement plants by the new entity. The same goes for Germany's Heidelberg Materials (ex-HeidelbergCement), which has radically altered its network of cement plants in Europe, following its 2016 takeover of Italy's Italcementi and its French branch Ciments Calcia.

Spain's Cementos Portland Valderrivas became the leader on the Iberian Peninsula when it took control of Uniland in 2006, but only regained full ownership of the company in 2013 after selling its subsidiary Cementos Lemona to Ireland's CRH. Its competitor, Cementos Molins, pointed out that in 2013 it acquired a plant from Mexico's Cemex in Barcelona, which it claims "distorts" the balance of its quota exchanges. Their Brazilian colleague Votorantim Cimentos is in the same situation, having only entered the Iberian market in 2012 by taking over the sites of Portugal's Cimpor.

'Surplus' companies

One thing is certain: A group like ArcelorMittal has always received more free quotas than it emitted in CO2. And that's still the case today. The steel giant resold large quantities in 2008, and again in 2011 and 2012. However, the level of its emissions remained such that it also had to reach into its pocket in some years, in order to acquire some on the carbon market. In total, according to EUTL records, between 2005 and 2019, the steel giant sold €3.7 billion worth of allowances and bought €1.8 billion, generating a margin of €1.9 billion. When contacted by Le Monde, ArcelorMittal France was unable to confirm these figures.

Again according to EUTL records, Holcim had a surplus of pollution rights until 2017. It sold many allowances from 2008 to 2012 before merging with Lafarge, which also sold a lot of allowances. In total, the two companies now merged would have sold €1.3 billion and bought €339 million to date, for a positive balance of €986 million. The amounts are buried in the Group's accounts and are impossible to trace in annual reports. "Transaction data is business data, which we do not communicate," said Lafarge France.

Their competitor, Heidelberg Materials, had a surplus until 2016. This major player in European cement, present in France through its Ciments Calcia brand and in Spain with the Sociedad Financiera y Minera cement plants, is also said to have disposed of a significant quantity of allowances after the 2008 financial crisis, for a total of €732 million, but ceased this practice in 2016 and also purchased €364 million, making a profit of €368 million. According to a spokesperson, the German firm "unfortunately does not have this information."

In Spain, Cementos Portland Valderrivas, a subsidiary of public works giant FCC, is one of the biggest CO2 emitters. From 2008 to 2012, it received an inordinate volume of rights to pollute each year, completely out of proportion to its actual emissions. The surplus did not end until 2021. It is said to have sold some of these rights, pocketing €288 million, and buying €11 million, for a profit of €277 million. The company refused to comment on these figures. "Our policy is not to participate in journalistic investigations," Le Monde was told.

'Cut the losses'

Nevertheless, some of these transactions can be found in the annual accounts filed with the Commercial Registry by its subsidiary Cementos Alfa. Until 2021, a line explicitly entitled "sale of greenhouse gas emission rights" appeared in the company's balance sheets, confirming that quotas are indeed considered an asset and that they are managed by the company's finance department, and not by the environment or sustainable development departments.

"Some companies sold a lot [of quotas] in 2012, 2014 or even 2018, years that correspond either to the introduction of stricter free allowance allocation criteria, or to periods when carbon prices were high," said Florian Rothenberg, carbon market analyst at ICIS consulting.

On the ground, testimonials confirm that the financial storm of 2008 precipitated quota sales. "At the time, our managers' only concern was to cut the losses. It was in this climate of crisis that some cement plants began to sell their pollution rights, which they no longer needed, due to the drastic fall in activity. Since then, European and Spanish regulations have evolved considerably to better encourage the gradual reduction of the industry's carbon emissions and discourage speculation on the CO2 market," said Daniel Lopez Caro, representative of the UGT union's industrial federation within the cement sector.

Absolute secrecy

As several French and Spanish trade unionists have said, employee representatives attending meetings with management are bound to absolute secrecy on the subject. They are made to sign confidentiality agreements, which no one dares to break for fear of being taken to court, as has already happened at ArcelorMittal. A source contacted by Le Monde, who had access to the accounts of one of the companies concerned, confirmed that this practice does indeed take place: "As recently as 2022, our managers resold quotas for tens of millions of euros. These sums are used to restore the company's net income when the year has been average."

"I know what my company pocketed by auctioning off quotas that it obtained free of charge, but I swore an oath to the works council not to divulge the figures. All I can say is that the money was used to balance the books to the tune of €6 to €10 million a year when times were tough," said a Spanish trade unionist, under the seal of secrecy. Another anonymous trade union source confirmed this practice at the steelworks: "At the time of the crisis at Florange, ArcelorMittal was receiving free quotas even though the site was shut down. It was a deception because this money was not used to reduce CO2 emissions or to invest in clean energy. It was an unhoped-for windfall of money that they obviously pounced on," she said.

"We were given figures orally and, most of the time, we said nothing, because management explained to us that by selling the quotas, they had saved our jobs. So we turned a blind eye. We preferred not to know," said a former Holcim Spain employee. "Everyone knows where the money ended up, but unfortunately it's impossible to demonstrate a direct link between the sale of quotas and the dividends distributed to these companies' shareholders," said Judith Kirton-Darling, general secretary of IndustriALL Europe, the European industrial workers' union.

According to Sam Van den plas, Campaign Director at Carbon Market Watch, an NGO that has been following the free quota affair for several years, the mystery is now over: "We finally know what companies have done with their rights to pollute. Up until now, we only had hypotheses," he said, referring to a study by CE Delft, which estimated in 2016 that free quota sales amounted to several billion euros.

Jadot believes the system of free quotas is "beyond moral judgment": "The whole thing is scandalous, as is the possibility of buying rights to pollute in African countries. It's a way of shirking responsibility and falsely practicing decarbonization," he said. "Companies have hijacked the concept of free quotas to make a profit, which raises an ethical question. At a time when we're trying to save the planet, some people are lining their own pockets. It's shameless," said Ana Isabel Martinez Garcia, a steel sector specialist with the Syndex accounting and consulting firm. It's shameless but legal.

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Tufan Erginbilgic believes SMRs will play a pivotal role in helping to decarbonise electricity grids across the continent CREDIT: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg/ Editing by Germán & Co 

Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says

Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy

The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, 20 June 2023

Europe cannot reach its target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 unless it embraces nuclear power, the chief executive of Rolls-Royce has said.

Tufan Erginbilgic claimed that new small reactors of the sort being developed by his company would play a pivotal role in helping to decarbonise electricity grids across the continent.

Speaking at the Paris Air Show, he said: “I’m not sure, without nuclear, Europe can go to a net zero world. SMR [small modular reactors], frankly, relative to the traditional nuclear power plant, has lots of advantages, because it is much smaller. And therefore the risk profile is much smaller.”

Mr Erginbilgic’s comments come against a backdrop of division within the European Union over how to approach nuclear power.

Some members, such as Germany and Denmark, have a more circumspect approach to nuclear and want more wind and solar sources. Others, including France, are keen to push ahead with the development of new nuclear power.

Rolls-Royce is developing so-called SMRs that are far smaller and cheaper than existing large-scale generators. It hopes the plants can offer zero-carbon power to decarbonise homes, industry and also make green hydrogen for the airline industry.

The company is pushing the UK to place cornerstone orders for the products. However, the Government is running a competitive process and looking at various rival designs. An update is expected as early as October.

Mr Erginbilgic said: “Our technology is very robust. I’m confident that our technology will actually prevail in that process.”

However, he renewed his plea for the government to make “firm commitments” on orders for the reactors. Rolls-Royce has argued that orders from the state will help attract private sector buyers and investment to get the technology off the ground.

In February, Mr Erginbilgic warned that Britain risks squandering its role as a leader in mini-nuclear reactor technology if ministers failed to support its SMRs.

Rolls-Royce is competing with dozens of other companies. It has ambitions to eventually build about 30 SMRs, each with a capacity of about 470 megawatts, which will supply millions of homes and businesses with clean electricity.

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USA, Nevada: McGinness Hills Geothermal Power Plant Capacity Increased to 138 MW/ Image by Germán & Co

Clean Geothermal, Green Earth: Sinopec to Host World Geothermal Congress 2023

In 22 cities, Sinopec Star has built 10 "smoke-free cities" and has installed more than 1 million square meters of geothermal heating. Over 85 million square meters of clean energy heating capacity have been built in Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong provinces, and more, reducing carbon emissions by 4.2 million tons and benefiting millions of households. 

BEIJING, June 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ 

-- China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (HKG: 0386, "Sinopec") will host the 7th World Geothermal Congress (WGC 2023) from September 15 to 17 in Beijing, China, which will be China's first time hosting the international convention known as the "Olympics of Geothermal." The theme for the WGC 2023 is "Clean Geothermal, Green Earth." 

Organized by the International Geothermal Association (IGA), a leading global platform on geothermal energy committed to promoting and supporting global geothermal development, the triennial conference is the premier global event convening the leaders of industry, academia, the finance sector, governments, NGOs, and communities to collaborate and provide thoughtful solutions for a sustainable society. 

Sinopec Star Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Sinopec that has been actively exploring the development and utilization of geothermal energy since 2006, is making significant contributions to Sinopec's roadmap of clean energy development and building up a new industry layout. 

The company is committed to promoting scaled development of its "Geothermal+" business model to further expand carbon asset volume and improve service quality while integrating into major regional and national economic and ecological development strategies to push forward clean energy heating. 

As of now, Sinopec Star has built 10 "smoke-free cities" in China and boasts more than 1 million square meters of geothermal heating capacity in 22 cities. It has built nearly 85 million square meters of clean energy heating capacity, serving more than 60 cities and counties in Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong provinces, and more, thereby reducing carbon emissions by 4.2 million tons per year while benefiting millions of households. 

Globally, Sinopec Star is actively pursuing cooperation opportunities with international institutions, organizations, and partners. It has established alliances which Icelandic companies, landed a series of pilot geothermal projects in China, led the establishment of a Sino-Icelandic Geothermal R&D Center with Iceland's Arctic Green Energy, and hosted international geothermal conferences and workshops to continually strengthen global cooperation while expanding the brand's influence. 

In addition, Sinopec Star has drafted 52 industry standards that have been approved and cover a wide scope, including geothermal resource exploration and evaluation, geothermal heating, and more. It actively participates in constructing the geothermal international standard system, winning the market's trust with leading standards. 

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News round-up, June 20, 2023

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Today…

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Ursula von der Leyen's perilous journey to Latin America as President of the European Union

”Europe is coming back, but not at full speed…

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1. Despite Latin America has been in the U.S. backyard, China has wise and strategically colonized the region in the past two decades.

2. Pandemic worsened poverty in Latin America. The EU's health reliance shifted towards Russia and China due to delayed release of Western vaccines, leading to criticism.

3. On the hunt for Latin American lithium. LA's abundant lithium resources and the potential for green hydrogen development make it appealing to superpowers. The European Union is countering the growing influence of Asian giants in Latin America through the Global Gateway program.

4. The region's president warned European Union President Ursula Von Der Leyen that nothing could be given away for free.

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“Latin America has always been in the United States' backyard…

Latin America, and the Caribbean have strong connections with the United States through geography, commerce, and family ties, but the region is facing unprecedented challenges that could impact our security and prosperity. The pandemic worsened existing issues, increasing inequality and insecurity, and leading to more migration to the U.S.

As a result of dissatisfaction with previous government performance, the region has shifted to the left, with populist authoritarian governments consolidating power in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Argentina, Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, and Chile have all faced crises and anti-democratic manifestations.

Governments may, however, reduce their cooperation with the US on critical issues, allowing rivals such as China, Russia, and Iran to expand their regional presence. The Biden administration has regional diplomacy expertise and policy documents. The bill emphasizes the importance of a public debate to address issues such as resource allocation, interagency efforts, and the root causes of regional issues.

“China, on the other hand...

Beijing's strategy for boosting China's influence in Latin America and the Caribbean. Chinese state-owned enterprises, with government backing, have invested in Latin America since 2005, driving China's expansion in the region, particularly in the last decade. The pandemic has temporarily slowed progress. This includes $314 billion in PRC trade and $136 billion in loans from PRC policy banks. China invests in industries like oil, mining (including strategic minerals like lithium), agro-logistics, forestry, and fishing to ensure access to commodities and food for its people. Chinese companies prioritize secure connectivity to strategic markets and technologies in various sectors, including electricity, biotech, transportation, logistics, telecom, smart cities, A.I., and e-commerce. Bilateral engagement, including free trade agreements and strategic partnerships, has facilitated progress in critical areas.

They have collaborated with the Inter-American Development Bank and United Nations Economic Commission and participated in forums such as BRICS and Caribbean Development Bank to achieve their goals. They collaborated with CELAC to coordinate regional engagement plans, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The PRC employs "people-to-people" diplomacy in Latin America through Confucius Institutes, scholarships, and sponsored trips for academics, analysts, journalists, and politicians via the Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Department. China supports Latin American media.

PCR's military involvement in the region is a cause for concern. They supply armaments, train personnel, send warships and military delegations, and covertly involve themselves in strategic infrastructure development, such as ports (Honduras). Recent information on a base in Cuba highlights the extent of their involvement.

The US authorities' inadequate response to a recent development has sparked intense debate in political studies circles, causing confusion and concern. China has reportedly reached out to Havana to establish another espionage facility in Cuba, according to —The Wall Street Journal and POLITICO—. The White House and the Pentagon both issued statements on the same day refuting the accuracy of the reporting. They did not explain their objections. A Biden administration official accuses China of espionage against the US. The speaker claimed the current administration inherited the issue. The administration has taken action to address the matter, said the official. To hold China accountable, measures like cybersecurity and diplomacy are being improved. The US will seek other ways to hold China accountable for its actions. The administration is determined to protect the US from China's malicious activities.

The pandemic has made the region more vulnerable to China's influence as it supplies vaccines and medical aid and purchases goods. And China's institutions fund significant projects like Peru's Chancay port, Mexico's Maya train, and Argentina's $8 billion Hualong-1 reactor.

Who is Ursula von der Leyen?

The current leader of the European Union, has been entrusted with the responsibility of addressing the multifaceted challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and an invasion that has further aggravated the pre-existing global economic crisis and the aftermath of the pandemic.

Ursula von der Leyen is a German politician born in Brussels, Belgium, in 1958. Whit studied in economics at three institutions and earned a degree from Hanover Medical School (MHH) in 1991.

Ursula von der Leyen started politics in 1996 and became a minister in Angela Merkel's first administration. She oversees family affairs, senior citizens, women, and youth. Von der Leyen was the first female German Minister of Defense from 2013 to 2019. In July 2019. In 2015, Europe saw a significant influx of refugees, leading to the implementation of anti-immigration policies backed by Angela Merkel and Francois Zarcozy, who both have Jewish ancestry. These measures faced strong condemnation for their harsh treatment of minority groups, including the Roma community.

…”The crisis significantly impacted the region's political, social, and economic domains. Angela Merkel's downfall is often attributed to her policy during the 2015 migrant crisis. Germany's net migration figure doubled to 1.1 million that year. Despite the Dublin Agreement, Merkel made Germany the largest destination for refugees in Europe as the continent struggled to cope. The refugee crisis remains a defining moment in Merkel's leadership, signalling her loss of power.

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Whem in October 2018, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek another term as CDU leader. Ursula von der Leyen was nominated for European Commission President. Her confirmation was narrowly secured with 383 out of 747 votes cast. The former German Defense Minister resigned and was succeeded by Kramp-Karrenbauer. The cabinet formation was delayed by one month due to disagreements regarding its composition.

Von der Leyen, since taking office, COVID-19 has caused global fatalities and disruptions. EU member states have reintroduced border controls. 75% of EU citizens will receive at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by the end of 2021. Russia has increased its military presence in several regions, including Western Russia, Crimea, Belarus, and Transdniestria in Moldova. EU leaders sought to prevent a the Russian invasion of Ukraine reduced its dependence on Russian gas exports. In February 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine marked the most significant European conflict since World War II. Von der Leyen has pledged €500 million in direct military aid to Ukraine, marking the EU's first weapons financing for a country under attack.

On the Global Gateway Program for Latin America and von der Leyen trip...

The EU's Global Gateway program promotes sustainable development and cooperation with partners. The focus is on improving intelligent, clean, and secure connections in digital, energy, and transportation sectors, as well as global health, education, and research systems. The EU and its member states will invest €300 billion in sustainable projects from 2021 to 2027 for lasting benefits to communities and partner countries. The Global Gateway aligns with UN’s Agenda 2030, Sustainable Development Goals, and Paris Agreement.

The EU is countering China's influence in Latin America through diplomacy. Ursula von der Leyen's recent visit to South America marks the first in a decade. The promise is to invest €10 billion and sign supply agreements for regional strategic materials, but Brazil and Argentina oppose unravelling Mercosur due to their concerns. Europe aims to regain lost ground in China, the top trading partner in South America and second in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Von der Leyen pledges €10 billion in investments and strategic material agreements but faces opposition from Brazil and Argentina in dismantling Mercosur. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen informed Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the EU's plan to strengthen its partnership with Brazil during her recent visit. Argentina, Chile, and Mexico followed Brazil. The EU is trying to cancel the Mercosur agreement, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and is the fifth largest non-EU economic area.

Latin America is a natural choice for rare earth, but the region is cautious about European interest and the Mercosur agreement. Lula and Fernández see the pact as mutually beneficial, but some believe it favor’s the community club.

”Europe is coming back, but not at full speed…

According to Beata Wojna, a professor of Instituto de Relaciones Internacionales del Tecnologico de Monterrey in Mexico, Europe is coming back, but not at full speed. The EU has acknowledged Latin America's political and economic distancing. The pandemic widened the gap as the EU faced backlash for not releasing Western vaccines while Russia and China did.

Von der Leyen is committed to addressing the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine. It surpasses European companies' combined investments in China, India, Japan, and Russia. Chinese influence is rapidly expanding. Bilateral trade in goods between Latin America and Asia has grown 26 times, from €11B to €287B in 2020. It is expected to surpass $700 billion by 000. Beijing has signed free trade agreements with Peru, Costa Rica, and Chile and completed technical negotiations with Ecuador. Negotiations with Uruguay continue. Javi López, MEP and co-president of EuroLat, recommends that the EU prioritize China's unique value to the region instead of obsessing over its role.

The Union wants an alliance, not dependence. The Members of European Parliament (MEP) attributes our economy's compatibility with Latin America to its non-destructive nature. Chinese enterprises receive government subsidies and must follow state labour and environmental policies. Latin American governments prioritize industrial development over raw material sales. We must show the value of our investments beyond extraction," he says. The EU partners with seven Latin American countries to promote cooperation on raw materials and secure more lithium supply agreements in the region. China invests billions in lithium production in Mexico, the new El Dorado, and the "lithium triangle" (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile). Von der Leyen signed an agreement to develop a lithium production chain in Chile and Argentina. Wojna suggests showing genuine interest as a successful strategy.

The professor warns of mistrust and a perception that Europe wants to extract resources from Latin America, leading to a lack of promotion and dissemination.

The President of the Council of the EU, Charles Michel, visited the region after several EU commissioners in recent months. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, has been active. Brussels is looking forward to the EU-CELAC summit in July under Spain's presidency.

Strengthening relations with Latin America is a top priority for Spain, as shown by the recent summit after an eight-year gap. The meeting aims to achieve more than just concrete agreements and economic announcements, such as the investments of 10,000 million euros from the Commission and 9,400 million from Spain. Brussels aims to promote Mercosur, but ratification is blocked by France, Ireland, Austria, and the Netherlands over economic concerns. Von der Leyen emphasized this objective during her visit to Brazil and Argentina. Lula and Fernández, who did not sign, question the EU's proposed letter to be added to the agreement.

The letter addresses new European environmental regulations on deforestation that some in Latin America see as protectionism. Buenos Aires and Brasilia want to renegotiate a harmful part of the agreement. Visiting Mexico, Chile and Brazil, sees von der Leyen's trip as a sign of the EU's commitment to the region and the need for ongoing political efforts to strengthen relations.

The MEP suggests adjusting the letter to Mercosur to prioritize environmental policies, but Professor Wojna fears inflexibility from some EU members or the Commission may cause a missed opportunity. The Amazon's destruction could hinder Mercosur countries from creating certification systems to prevent deforestation in their exports, warns Wojna. According to his prediction, the agreement with Mexico may not be modernized and signed until after the Mexican and European Parliament elections in June 2024 or even as late as 2025.

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REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El Dahan, June 20, 2023

As Modi visits White House, India’s reliance on Russian arms constrains him

The BrahMos missile illustrates how India's long-standing reliance on Russia for military equipment and technology limits New Delhi's ability to align with the West in confronting Russia over its war in Ukraine, as President Biden welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week. India has not condemned the invasion, much to Washington's chagrin.

WP By Karishma Mehrotra, June 20, 2023

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The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Image credit: Kremlin

Beijing Plans a New Training Facility in Cuba, Raising Prospect of Chinese Troops on America’s Doorstep

Biden administration scrambles to forestall China’s ambitions in the Caribbean

WSJ By Warren P. Strobel,  Gordon Lubold,  Vivian Salama and Michael R. Gordon, June 20, 2023

China and Cuba already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. PHOTO: YANDER ZAMORA/SHUTTERSTOCK

WASHINGTON—China and Cuba are negotiating to establish a new joint military training facility on the island, sparking alarm in Washington that it could lead to the stationing of Chinese troops and other security and intelligence operations just 100 miles off Florida’s coast, according to current and former U.S. officials.

Discussions for the facility on Cuba’s northern coast are at an advanced stage but not concluded, U.S. intelligence reports suggest. The Biden administration has contacted Cuban officials to try to forestall the deal, seeking to tap in to what it thinks might be Cuban concerns about ceding sovereignty. Beijing’s effort to establish a military training facility in Cuba hasn’t been previously reported. The White House declined to comment.

The heightened anxiety in Washington over China’s ambitions in the Caribbean and Latin America comes as the administration is seeking to tamp down broader tensions with Beijing that have been stoked by a host of other issues, including U.S. support for Taiwan. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was on a high-profile visit to China these past few days, meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The trip appeared to halt a downward spiral in relations. But Blinken failed to secure China’s agreement to a U.S. proposal that the two countries resume military-to-military communications to avoid misunderstandings. He also raised U.S. concerns about Chinese intelligence activities in Cuba, according to a State Department statement.

U.S. officials said reference to the proposed new training facility in Cuba is contained in highly classified new U.S. intelligence, which they described as convincing but fragmentary. It is being interpreted with different levels of alarm among policy makers and intelligence analysts.

The Wall Street Journal reported on June 8 that China and Cuba had reached an agreement in principle for a new eavesdropping site in Cuba; the White House characterized that reporting as inaccurate but didn’t elaborate. Two days later, the White House declassified intelligence to confirm publicly that Chinese intelligence collection facilities have existed in Cuba since at least 2019.

Current and former U.S. officials said a new military facility could provide China with a platform to potentially house troops permanently on the island and broaden its intelligence gathering, including electronic eavesdropping, against the U.S.

Most worrying for the U.S.: The planned facility is part of China’s “Project 141,” an initiative by the People’s Liberation Army to expand its global military base and logistical support network, one current and one former U.S. official said.

China and Cuba already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. That network underwent a significant upgrade around 2019, when a single station expanded to a network of four sites that are operated jointly, and Chinese involvement deepened, according to the officials.

There also are signs of changes in the arrangement for those facilities that officials say could signal greater Chinese involvement, though the details are scant. A U.S. intelligence report earlier this year referred to the “centralization” of the management of the four joint sites, but what precisely that entails isn’t clear.

Other Project 141 sites include a deal for a Chinese naval outpost in Cambodia and a military facility whose purpose isn’t publicly known at a port in the United Arab Emirates, a former U.S. official said. None of the previously known Project 141 sites are in the Western Hemisphere.

Some of those facilities include intelligence gathering capabilities as well, including a Chinese base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa, Beijing’s only military base outside the Pacific region, where China has been working to build a facility for gathering signals intelligence.

An official with the Chinese Embassy in Washington referred to comments from a senior foreign ministry spokesman in Beijing on June 9, saying he wasn’t aware of any deal between China and Cuba and saying the U.S. is an “expert in chasing shadows” in other countries and meddling in their affairs.

“We hope that relevant parties can focus more on things that are conducive to enhancing mutual trust and regional peace and stability development,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said when asked about the Cuba negotiations at a regular briefing in Beijing on Tuesday.

Cuba’s embassy in Washington had called the Journal’s earlier report “totally mendacious and unfounded.” The embassy didn’t respond to a request for comment on Monday.

In an interview with CBS News on Monday, Blinken said that the Chinese activities in Cuba were a serious concern for the administration and that he had raised it in his weekend meetings in Beijing.

“We’ve been taking steps over the past couple of years, diplomatically, wherever we’ve seen China trying to create that kind of presence,” he said. “It is something of real concern. I was very clear about our concerns with China.”

U.S.-China tensions have soared in recent months over issues including a Chinese spy balloon that flew over the U.S. before the U.S. military shot it down, and close encounters between the nations’ militaries in the skies and at sea.

Some intelligence officials say that Beijing sees its actions in Cuba as a geographical response to the U.S. relationship with Taiwan: The U.S. invests heavily in arming and training the self-governing island that sits off mainland China and that Beijing sees as its own. The Journal reported that the U.S. has deployed more than 100 troops to Taiwan to train its defense forces.

Taiwan is roughly 100 miles from mainland China, about the same distance Cuba is from Florida.

China has no combat forces in Latin America, according to U.S. officials. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dozens of military bases throughout the Pacific, where it stations more than 350,000 troops. Chinese officials have pointed this out when they push back on American efforts to counter their military expansion outside of the Indo-Pacific.

Some U.S. officials cautioned that the parameters of China’s plans in Cuba aren’t fully known, and said the two countries would move cautiously to expand security ties.

“The intelligence community has assessed for several years that the PRC intends to expand its reach globally, and in this case, it is premature to draw firm conclusions about recent reporting,” a U.S. intelligence official said. “At this stage, it does not appear to be anything that provides much of an enhancement to the current suite of capabilities.”

Any increase in security coordination between China and Cuba “is going to go slowly,” the U.S. intelligence official said.

Cuba, several officials said, has reason to move cautiously, to avoid provoking the U.S. at a time when its economy is in disastrous shape and it is seeking the easing of economic sanctions and travel restrictions imposed by Washington.

The U.S. had been tracking a planned visit to Beijing by a senior Cuban defense official that U.S. officials said they interpreted as representing the next step in the negotiations over the training facility. It wasn’t immediately clear from the latest intelligence if the visit had taken place, but officials said it reflected how close the plans were to becoming formalized.

The Biden administration contacted Cuban officials in Washington to express its concern about the planned facility, officials said.

“We’ve made our concerns known” to the Cuban government, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said earlier this month.

A White House official said Monday that the Chinese government “will keep trying to enhance its presence in Cuba, and we will keep working to disrupt it.”

Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.), the chair and vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in a joint statement earlier this month that they were “deeply disturbed by reports that Havana and Beijing are working together to target the United States and our people.”

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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A geothermal plant started providing energy for the Eden Project this week. Image CREDIT: Matt Greenwell/PGB/Editing by Germán & Co 

The near-infinite energy source that could win Britain’s net zero race

Deep geothermal energy aims to fill the gaps in the country’s green power supply

The Telegraph By Matt Oliver, 20 June 2023 

The crumbling pumping stations dotting the landscape of the Gwennap district are a visible reminder of the area’s pivotal role in the long-gone Cornish mining boom.

During the Industrial Revolution, the huge output of the district’s copper and tin mines, not far from Redruth, helped garner it a reputation as “richest square mile on earth”.

Today, businesses are digging deep in search of a different sort of treasure: energy.

At United Downs, a stone’s throw from many of the old mines, a pioneering project run by Geothermal Engineering is drawing heat from granite rocks that lie more than three miles below the surface.

It does this by pumping out water warmed to 200 degrees celsius to power a heat exchanger, before being pumped back down again to a shallower well.

From next year, the scheme will provide heat and power to 3,800 homes near Truro, as well as the Royal Cornwall Hospital, local schools and a leisure centre, after receiving £22m in funding from the Government.

Ryan Law, chief executive of Geothermal Engineering, believes it can serve as a template for similar schemes across Britain, at a time when policymakers are exploring what role the technology can play in the race to “net zero”.

It comes as another geothermal plant has also begun generating energy this week for the Eden Project near St Blazey, roughly 20 miles from United Downs.

“Geothermal has really become a hot topic in the last two years,” says Law. “We chose Cornwall because it’s the hottest spot in the UK – and United Downs is sort of the trailblazer.”

Although it can be used to generate power, like wind and solar farms, Law believes geothermal’s real promise lies in heating buildings, providing a viable replacement for gas-fired boilers. About one fifth of the UK’s carbon emissions come from keeping buildings warm, with carbon-free solutions such as electric heat pumps currently too expensive for many households.

The rock underneath Cornwall is hot because it contains small amounts of the radioactive elements uranium, potassium and thorium, Law explains, which over a large area creates “quite a lot of heat”.

This means it can be available all year-round, barring short periods needed for power plant maintenance.

“It is just a massive resource,” adds Law. “It’s like taking buckets out of the ocean. I wouldn’t say it’s infinite, but it is huge.

“And unlike wind and solar, it just keeps going once you switch it on.”

However, he argues geothermal will not compete directly with those renewables, “because it’s a different form of energy”.

“Wind and solar are pretty good at producing large scale electricity, but where geothermal fits into the mix is with this sort of elephant in the room of how we will meet our zero carbon heating targets.

“I see these projects as being installed in areas that need power and heat, for example big swathes of urban areas, because it’s that combination which could see geothermal have a big impact on the UK.”

The company already has two more projects, in Penhallow and Manhay, that have been granted planning permission. They will be even bigger, with Geothermal Engineering aiming to win support for the schemes through the Government’s contracts for difference auction this summer.

The company is seeking about £119 per megawatt hour of electricity generated, although Law says he believes the price for future plants could eventually be two thirds lower based on other projects in operation in the US today.

He also reckons that the cost of drilling the two wells at United Downs – about £24m – can be halved.

Whether this is ultimately possible will depend on demand for geothermal in Britain and the supply chains that grow to serve it.

At the moment, less than 1pc of the country’s energy is generated through geothermal schemes.

But the technology has been pioneered and proven successful elsewhere, including in Iceland, the US, Italy, France and Germany.

In Iceland, 30pc of electricity is now generated from geothermal sources. The resulting power is so cheap it is used to heat greenhouses growing bananas domestically and the freezing country has become a magnet for energy-intensive aluminium producers.

Munich has also pursued geothermal in a big way. Regional energy company Stadtwerke Munich (SWM) now operates six geothermal plants in and around the German city, providing heat and electricity for hundreds of thousands of residents and facilities.

Law claims the example of Munich is proof that the technology can be deployed in densely populated areas with relatively little disruption, despite the need for rigs to drill the wells initially.

In Britain, the most promising areas for development after Cornwall include parts of the North West such as Manchester and swathes of Yorkshire including Hull.

The UK Government is preparing to publish a white paper in the coming weeks that could set out the potential for geothermal energy and where the best opportunities are.

Geothermal energy has proved highly successful in countries such as Iceland, where 30pc of electricity is now generated from geothermal sources CREDIT: LANDSVIRKJUN/AFP via Getty Images

However, the UK currently lacks a specific regulatory regime for geothermal, according to a House of Commons Library report, and both planning and grid connection delays pose challenges.

The Eden Project scheme, for example, could potentially export some power to the grid but has been told it cannot be connected until 2036 at the earliest.

“We would love to turn it into electricity. But it’s a nightmare,” Gus Grand, the boss of Eden Geothermal, told the Financial Times.

Geothermal Engineering’s Law says a key test for the industry will be whether his company’s projects - and others - win funding from a government-run energy auction this summer. There is a specific pot of money earmarked for “developing technologies”.

This will underpin “substantial further investment” from private sources, he says.

Another emerging use of geothermal technology, being developed by his company and others including Cornish Lithium, is the extraction of underground minerals using liquid solutions. This allows resources like lithium – a key material used to make batteries – to be extracted with minimal environmental disruption and zero carbon emissions.

At the same time, as in Iceland, the technology could open up new frontiers for British agriculture. Powering greenhouses would allow British farmers to grow produce from hotter climes here without incurring ruinous energy costs.

“We’re at an inflection point now,” says Law. “I really think we’re at the tip of the iceberg and it’s just a question of maturity.

“If you remember with offshore wind, people said it would never work because it was too expensive.

“Now look at it.”

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CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) logo and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Qatar strikes second big LNG supply deal with China

The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement in which China will buy 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf Arab state.

REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El Dahan, June 20, 2023

DOHA, June 20 (Reuters) - Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead in the race to secure gas supplies from Doha's massive production expansion project.

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement, under which China will purchase 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) a year from the Gulf Arab state.

CNPC will also take an equity stake in the eastern expansion of Qatar's North Field LNG project, QatarEnergy chief Saad al-Kaabi said at the signing.

The stake is the equivalent of 5% of one LNG train with capacity of 8 million metric tons a year.

"Today we are signing two agreements that will further enhance our strong relations with one of the most important gas markets in the world and key market for Qatari energy products," Kaabi said.

In an identical deal, QatarEnergy sealed a 27-year supply agreement with China's Sinopec in November for 4 million metric tons a year. The state-owned Chinese gas giant also took an equity stake equivalent to 5% of one LNG train of 8 million metric tons a year capacity.

Asia, with an appetite for long-term sales and purchase agreements, has outpaced Europe in locking in supply from Qatar's two-phase expansion plan that will raise its liquefaction capacity to 126 million metric tons a year by 2027 from 77 million.

Tuesday's deal will be QatarEnergy's third deal to supply LNG from the expansion to an Asian buyer.

Other Asian buyers are also in talks for equity stakes in the expansion, Kaabi said.

DEALS WITH 'VALUE-ADDED PARTNERS'

Qatar is the world's top LNG exporter and competition for LNG has ramped up since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, with Europe in particular needing vast amounts to help replace Russian pipeline gas that used to make up almost 40% of the continent's imports.

Reuters had earlier reported that CNPC was close to finalising a deal to buy LNG from QatarEnergy over nearly 30 years from the North Field expansion project.

QatarEnergy had previously said that it could give up to 5% stakes in the gas trains linked to its North Field expansion to what Kaabi, the Gulf state's energy minister and CEO of QatarEnergy, described as "value-added partners".

In April, China's Sinopec became the first Asian energy company to become a "value-added" partner in the project.

QatarEnergy has also signed equity partnerships on the project with international oil companies but has said it plans to retain a 75% stake in the North Field expansion, which will cost at least $30 billion including construction of liquefaction export facilities.

As Beijing's ties with the United States and Australia, Qatar's two biggest LNG export rivals, are strained, Chinese national energy firms increasingly see Qatar as a safer target for resource investment.

The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the country's $445 billion sovereign wealth fund, will manage most of the revenues from the North Field expansion," Kaabi said.

"I think the majority of the revenue of what's going to come from this North Field expansion will go into a future generation wealth fund in QIA ... making sure that the Qatari people and people living in Qatar are well taken care of."

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Image by Germán & Co via Shuttersock

As Modi visits White House, India’s reliance on Russian arms constrains him

The BrahMos missile illustrates how India's long-standing reliance on Russia for military equipment and technology limits New Delhi's ability to align with the West in confronting Russia over its war in Ukraine, as President Biden welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week. India has not condemned the invasion, much to Washington's chagrin.

WP By Karishma Mehrotra, June 20, 2023

Indian soldiers preparing for a Republic Day parade in 2014 sit near BrahMos supersonic missiles, jointly developed by India and Russia. (Saurabh Das/AP)

NEW DELHI — One of India’s most highly regarded weapons is a supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from sea, sky and land. Its name, BrahMos, is a portmanteau of the Brahmaputra River in India and the Moskva River in Russia, which began jointly developing the missile after the fall of the Soviet Union. Indian defense officials call it their “Brahmastra” — a Hindu mythological weapon that can destroy the entire universe.

India sees the missile as an essential part of a military capability that could survive a nuclear attack and has deployed it along its tense border with China. The missile has been supplied to the Philippines, and potential sales to Vietnam and Indonesia are underway.

As President Biden welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week, the BrahMos missile illustrates how India’s long-standing reliance on Russia for military equipment and technology constrains New Delhi’s ability to line up with the West in confronting Russia over its war in Ukraine. To Washington’s disappointment, India has not condemned the invasion.

The arms relationship is “a key driver” of India’s reluctance to vocally oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine, said Richard Rossow, the chair of U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Robust military trade between the countries dates back to the 1960s, and Russian equipment now makes up about 85 percent of the Indian arsenal, according to a team led by Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Russia has supplied fighter aircraft, nuclear submarines, cruise missiles, battle tanks, Kalashnikov rifles and much more. Some of this, such as fighter aircraft, could stay in India’s arsenal till 2065. India will remain dependent on Moscow for spare parts and maintenance for decades to come.

Other forms of Russian influence — including support for India at the United Nations and other international forums, and, since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, discounted crude oil — have all kept India close to Moscow. But experts like Lalwani say that military dependency is the “strongest” and “most durable” bond between the two countries.

“The number of really important countries to the U.S. who have a lot of Russian stuff is small, and India is at the top of that list,” said Chris Clary, a former country director for South Asian affairs in the office of the U.S. secretary of defense and now a professor at the University at Albany. “The big picture is that you don’t end a six-decade relationship quickly. It’s not going to be easy for even a determined national leadership to overcome, and it’s not at all clear to me that the current dispensation in New Delhi is determined.”

During Modi’s visit to Washington this week, U.S. officials will be looking to cut into Russian dominance of India’s military market, with discussions underway about deals to sell 31 armed drones and to jointly produce fighter jet engines involving General Electric, and a new initiative to deepen cooperation in military innovation.

The United States has been seeking to expand its role over the past decade, as military imports from Russia to India have slowly waned. India, the largest importer of weapons in the world, obtained 45 percent of its equipment from Russia in the five years through 2022, down from nearly two-thirds from the five years prior, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

American supplies still represent only 1 percent of the Indian army’s equipment and just about 4 percent of that of the Indian navy and air force, Lalwani said. From 2018 through 2022, according to SIPRI, the estimated value of Russian weapons sold to India was four times that of American weapons.

U.S. officials may not be happy about the Russian cast of India’s military. But they recognize that it’s important these weapons remain effective given the continuing tensions between India and China, which represents the top American concern in Asia, Rossow said.

Defense analysts in India agree that Russian technology is losing any technical edge it had over other suppliers, making deals with the United States more desirable. At the same time, the Ukraine war caused delays in the supply of spare parts from Russia as well as payment issues. Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, said he suspects that Indian leaders are now “regretting” their overreliance on Russia.

Russia’s dominance of the Indian market has deep roots. “Russia historically was willing to extend sophisticated technology to India that frankly the U.S. has not,” said Lisa Curtis, director of Indo-Pacific security at the Center for a New American Security, who previously directed South Asia policy at the U.S. National Security Council.

When the Soviet Union made its first major sale of MiG-21 jets to India in the 1960s, Moscow offered sweeteners that Washington didn’t match, including allowing India to pay in rupees and produce the fighter jets domestically. For decades after, the Russians had a near-monopoly on the Indian military market, charging lower costs than competitors and offering some technology transfers. Russians began to openly extend nuclear-technology sharing in the 1980s, leasing to India a nuclear submarine and supporting India’s nuclear energy production.

Many Indian military officials and planners, especially those who came of age during the Cold War, were scarred by the American decision to side with Pakistan during its 1971 war with India. “There were a lost three decades in the India-U.S. relationship because the Americans felt we were pro-Soviet,” said D.B. Venkatesh Verma, a former Indian ambassador to Russia. “We turned to the Soviets because nothing was on offer for us.”

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, when India was eager to build new trading relationships, the United States remained reluctant to supply military equipment because of concerns over India’s ambitions to develop its nuclear weapons capacity, Verma said.

The nuclear deal finalized in 2008, which saw India and the United States coordinate on nuclear power, marked a major turning point for relations between India and the United States.

“The sentiment toward the U.S. has become a lot warmer over the last 15 years, but it still hasn’t reached the level of strategic empathy that India shared with the Soviet Union and Russia,” said Rajagopalan.

After the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections, the United States became increasingly opposed to countries buying Russian equipment, adopting sanctions in 2017 that restricted the sharing of American technology with countries that bought certain Russian equipment. Despite the sanctions risk, India finalized a deal to buy Russian long-range missiles, known as S-400s, which will likely last another two decades.

The India-Russia relationship “casts a very long shadow into the future,” Verma said. “Hopefully, there is understanding from the U.S. that this is a transition that India should be allowed to make at its own pace, because India is too large and the relationship with Russia is too deep for India to make U-turns.”

Some experts in India already see it turning away from Russia. Happymon Jacob, a professor of disarmament studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, says Indians think of the Russia relationship in “past terms” and the U.S. one in “future terms.”

Senior U.S. defense officials say India began to reduce its reliance on Russia before the Ukraine war, noting that Lockheed Martin is making F-16 wings and C-130J tails in Indian factories. “Is there still a reality that they have to manage in terms of their relationship with Russia? Yes. But the trends are in the right direction,” said one official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon.

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News round-up, June 16, 2023

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Today…

" It appears that the future readers' souls had forewarned us about the dangers of Triton…

The international media reported this morning on a significant cybersecurity breach in the United States.

Yesterday, there was a significant discussion and warning regarding the Triton malware, which has been classified as the —world's most lethal—. The focus was on its capability to disable safety mechanisms in industrial facilities remotely. This subject has attracted significant attention from cybersecurity experts, particularly within the energy sector. Today's disclosure of a substantial cybersecurity breach in the United States, as reported by the international media, is a matter of great concern. The Energy Department, along with several other federal agencies, has been targeted by a global cyber-attack carried out by a Russian cyber-extortion group. This security breach specifically targeted a widely utilized file-transfer program that is highly favored by both corporate entities and governmental organizations. The potential ramifications could have been more severe; nevertheless, officials from the Department of Homeland Security have asserted that this campaign was promptly identified. According to Jen Easterly, the Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the nature of this attack is predominantly opportunistic, rather than being driven by the intention to gain broader access or steal high-value information. The revelation that a significant number of individuals, including professionals in various industries, higher education institutions, and state motor vehicle agencies, may have encountered unfavorable outcomes is deeply unsettling.

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Most Read…

US Energy Department among federal agencies breached by Russian ransomware gang

Several American federal agencies were compromised on Thursday in a Russian cyber-extortion gang's global hack of a file-transfer program popular with corporations and governments.

Le Monde with AP,  Published today at 6:03 am (Paris)

ECB hikes rates to 22-year high and vows to keep going

While the US Federal Reserve is hitting pause on a series on interest rate hikes, the ECB has once again raised rates and says that more are on the way.

Le Monde with AFP, Published yesterday at 6:50 pm (Paris)

The Global Economy Looks Like It’s Out of Sync

As central banks go in different directions, most capital markets remain linked to the dollar

WSJ by James Mackintosh, June 16, 2023 

Column: Key differences in government spending on the energy transition

Governments globally are investing billions to speed up the energy transition, reduce costs, and drive innovation in fuels and power technologies. However, there are significant differences in government funding priorities, with the United States heavily investing in low-carbon electricity and transportation systems. Private sector companies are investing in clean energy.

Reuters by Gavin Maguire, June 15, 2023, editing by Germán & Co

Opinion | A Trump Pardon Could Drain Poison from the System

If Trump loses in 2024, sparing him jail time could ease our divided politics.

POLITICO USA, Opinion by RICH LOWRY, June 15, 2023 

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The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…

---

Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

Image credit: by Germán & Co

US Energy Department among federal agencies breached by Russian ransomware gang

Several American federal agencies were compromised on Thursday in a Russian cyber-extortion gang's global hack of a file-transfer program popular with corporations and governments.

Le Monde with AP,  Published today at 6:03 am (Paris)

The Department of Energy and several other federal agencies were compromised in a Russian cyber-extortion gang's global hack of a file-transfer program popular with corporations and governments, but the impact was not expected to be great, Homeland Security officials said Thursday, June 15.

But for others among what could be hundreds of victims from industry to higher education – including patrons of at least two state motor vehicle agencies – the hack was beginning to show some serious impacts.

Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, told reporters that unlike the meticulous, stealthy SolarWinds hacking campaign attributed to state-backed Russian intelligence agents that was months in the making, this campaign was short, relatively superficial and caught quickly. "Based on discussions we have had with industry partners ... these intrusions are not being leveraged to gain broader access, to gain persistence into targeted systems, or to steal specific high value information— in sum, as we understand it, this attack is largely an opportunistic one," Easterly said.

"Although we are very concerned about this campaign and working on it with urgency, this is not a campaign like SolarWinds that presents a systemic risk to our national security or our nation’s networks," she added.

British Airways and the BBC also targeted

A senior CISA official said neither the US military nor intelligence community was affected. Energy Department spokesperson Chad Smith said two agency entities were compromised but did not provide more detail.

Known victims to date include Louisiana’s Office of Motor Vehicles, Oregon's Department of Transportation, the Nova Scotia provincial government, British Airways, the British Broadcasting Company and the UK drugstore chain Boots. The exploited program, MOVEit, is widely used by businesses to securely share files. Security experts say that can include sensitive financial and insurance data.

The Cl0p ransomware syndicate behind the hack announced last week on its dark web site that its victims, who it suggested numbered in the hundreds, had until Wednesday to get in touch to negotiate a ransom or risk having sensitive stolen data dumped online.

The gang, among the world’s most prolific cybercrime syndicates, also claimed it would delete any data stolen from governments, cities and police departments.

The senior CISA official told reporters a "small number" of federal agencies were hit – declining to name them – and said "this is not a widespread campaign affecting a large number of federal agencies." The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the breach, said no federal agencies had received extortion demands and no data from an affected federal agency had been leaked online by Cl0p. US officials "have no evidence to suggest coordination between Cl0p and the Russian government," the official said.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

---

Image editing by Germán & Co

ECB hikes rates to 22-year high and vows to keep going

While the US Federal Reserve is hitting pause on a series on interest rate hikes, the ECB has once again raised rates and says that more are on the way.

Le Monde with AFP, Published yesterday at 6:50 pm (Paris)

The European Central Bank hiked interest rates to a 22-year high Thursday and said another increase in July was "very likely", as it pushed ahead with its fight against inflation despite a darkening eurozone economy.

The ECB's governing council increased rates by a further 25 basis points, taking the closely-watched deposit rate to 3.50% – its highest level since 2001.

"Inflation has been coming down but is projected to remain too high for too long," ECB President Christine Lagarde said. The move comes a day after the US Federal Reserve held off from raising rates after 10 straight increases.

"We're not thinking about pausing," Lagarde said, adding that the ECB still has "ground to cover" on rates after the Frankfurt institution lifted its inflation outlook for 2023-2025 in fresh forecasts on Thursday. "Barring a material change to our baseline, it is very likely the case that we will continue to increase rates in July," she told reporters.

The ECB has lifted borrowing costs at the fastest rate ever to combat red-hot inflation after Russia's war in Ukraine sent food and energy prices soaring, raising its key rates by 4.00 percentage points since July.

Eurozone inflation slowed to 6.1% in May year-on-year, down from a peak of 10.6% in October, mainly thanks to rapidly falling energy costs. The ECB said its inflation-busting efforts were "gradually having an impact", with loan demand slowing sharply as higher borrowing costs take their toll on eurozone households and firms.

But inflation remains three times above the ECB's target while core inflation – which strips out volatile food and energy prices – eased only slightly to 5.3% in May, after 5.6% in April. Lagarde reiterated on Thursday that the ECB will "follow a data-dependent approach" as it charts the way forward.

"The ECB simply cannot afford to be wrong on inflation," said ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski. "The bank wants and has to be sure that it has slayed the inflation dragon before considering a policy change."

'Not satisfactory'

Like all central banks, the ECB has to walk a fine line in raising interest rates sufficiently to dampen demand and contain inflation, without provoking a sharp economic slowdown in the process. But the eurozone economy has proved less resilient than initially thought.

Revised data last week showed that the economy in the 20-nation currency union shrank by 0.1% for two straight quarters at the end of 2022 and the start of 2023, meeting the technical definition of a recession. While still mild, the surprise winter slump has cast doubt on more optimistic economic forecasts for 2023.

In updated forecasts, the ECB now sees the eurozone economy growing by 0.9% in 2023 – down from 1.0% previously. Lagarde said the economy would "strengthen in the course of the year" as inflation slows, supply chains ease and the service sector remains resilient. But she stressed that the outlook remained "highly uncertain", citing Russia's war in Ukraine and potentially weak global growth among the risk factors.

'Tit-for-tat' price surges

Thursday's updated projections also showed inflation reaching 5.4% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 – a 0.1-percentage-point increase for each year from its last forecasts in March. With the ECB's 2% target still out of reach by 2025, Lagarde called the outlook "not satisfactory".

Wage pressures were becoming an "increasingly important source" of inflation, she said, as workers – boosted by record-low eurozone unemployment – push for pay rises to help compensate for the higher cost of living. She also expressed concern about high corporate profits, urging companies and employees to avoid a "tit-for-tat" where both sides sought full compensation for inflation – potentially creating an unwanted spiral of price rises.

The ECB was watching the discussions and developments between the different parties in the labour market closely, Lagarde said. The central bank "will take all necessary measures to return inflation to two percent. That they can count on," she said. "And we are confident that we will get there."

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Image credit by Germán & Co

The Global Economy Looks Like It’s Out of Sync

As central banks go in different directions, most capital markets remain linked to the dollar

WSJ by James Mackintosh, June 16, 2023 

While the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish statement, Chair Jerome Powell held what markets viewed as a dovish press conference Wednesday. Photo: Sarah Silbiger

In just 24 hours this past week the central banks of the world’s three biggest economic blocs came to starkly different conclusions, with the eurozone raising rates, the U.S. on hold and the Chinese cutting. It’s getting harder for investors to understand the global economy—and potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation.

The conflicting moves are caused by economies increasingly moving to local rhythms. Europe is in a technical recession, but the central bank expects inflation to last. China has no inflation problem but is suffering from the aftermath of its extended lockdowns and property bubble. The U.S. economy is doing surprisingly well, and inflation has plunged, but underlying price increases remain stubbornly high.

The global divergence has already swung currencies. China’s yuan has weakened this year, which should make its exports more competitive, crimp imports and help its economy. Except when China goes for all-out stimulus or intervention as in 2009 or after its 2015 stock bubble burst, its markets have their own beat. Capital controls and fear of expropriation mean they aren’t tightly integrated into global portfolios.

More important for U.S. investors are the moves in Europe, where the European Central Bank and the Bank of England—which will decide on its rate next week—are now seen by investors as more hawkish than the Fed. That’s driving up their bond yields, and pushing down the dollar against the euro and sterling.

In itself, such moves are exactly what’s meant to happen. The whole point of having a floating currency is to free central banks to set rates according to the issues their own economies face. The problem comes from the sensitivity of investors to dollar weakness, and the knock-on boost to confidence it brings.

Americans aren’t used to thinking about their investments in other currencies. The dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency makes it the standard for measuring value, as well as for global transactions. But the dollar still has a profound effect, just one that U.S. investors often miss.

It is potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation. PHOTO: NATHAN HOWARD/BLOOMBERG NEWS

When the dollar goes up, Americans are richer in that they can buy more foreign stuff with the same money. But recently they’re likely to feel poorer, because the dollar and stocks have been moving in opposite directions. Historically the two were closely linked only in crises, when the dollar was bought as a haven and stocks were dumped because of their risk. After 2008, the dollar-up, stocks-down relationship strengthened, and since the stock selloff began in 2022 the link has been even stronger, with weekly moves in the dollar explaining about half the move in the S&P 500.

What effects do you think will stem from an asynchronous global economy?Join the conversation below.

One way to think about this is that as the Fed raised rates, the dollar, up until the autumn, strengthened sharply, which hurt U.S. stocks. But then the ECB and Bank of England became serious about rate rises, the dollar began to weaken, and the bull market in U.S. stocks kicked off.

See American stocks as Europeans do, and in euros they never fell the 20% usually defined as a bear market, nor did they rebound so much as to be in a new bull market. The drama was in the currency, not stocks.

This might seem like a perverse outcome, and makes things harder for the Fed. In principle, higher rates in Europe should damp demand, including for U.S. exports to the region, while also pushing up U.S. yields, as some investors switch to higher-yielding European bonds. Both these things should be bad for the U.S. economy, and bad for U.S. stocks.

But as long as investors stick with the idea that the dollar and stocks move in opposite directions, the weaker dollar alone means American shareholders feel richer, even if they have the same purchasing power in foreign-currency terms. And investors who feel flush tend to borrow and spend more, supporting the economy—exactly the opposite of the slowdown the Fed wants. It also boosts the competitiveness of U.S. production, again supporting the economy. Without the Fed doing anything, rate rises elsewhere might give the U.S. a boost.

The weak dollar has a perverse effect elsewhere, too. Because capital markets are integrated, lots of countries and companies borrow in dollars, and many big global investors think in dollars, a weak dollar makes everyone feel positive. European stocks in local-currency terms and emerging markets excluding China have risen almost exactly as much as the S&P 500 as the dollar weakened. 

Even as economies and central banks diverge, most capital markets remain tightly integrated and linked to a common global force: the dollar

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 Image: REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/ Editing by Germán & Co

Column: Key differences in government spending on the energy transition

Governments globally are investing billions to speed up the energy transition, reduce costs, and drive innovation in fuels and power technologies. However, there are significant differences in government funding priorities, with the United States heavily investing in low-carbon electricity and transportation systems. Private sector companies are investing in clean energy.

Reuters by Gavin Maguire, June 15, 2023, editing by Germán & Co

LITTLETON, Colorado, June 14 (Reuters) - Governments across the world are doling out billions of dollars worth of investments and subsidies to help accelerate the energy transition, reduce energy costs for consumers, and spur innovation in fuels and power-sector technologies.

But while all authorities are spending big in the energy space in general, there are important differences in where key governments are focusing their funds, most starkly between the United States and the governments of Europe.

Both regions have shared aspirations in terms of emissions reduction goals, but have so far taken vastly different funding approaches that have potentially significant implications for the pace of energy sector decarbonisation efforts and the emergence of future industry champions.

Private sector players in the United States and Europe, as well as in Asia and the rest of the world, are also embarking on their own investment campaigns in the clean energy space, and stand to have an equally significant impact on the sector.

Government spending on clean energy, energy affordability & energy efficiency

But in all regions corporations rely on the government to provide critical funding in areas such as early-stage research and development, and in helping to set key goals for industries that can make or break individual companies.

As such, the scale and trajectory of government support in the clean energy space is of critical importance in all major economies.

US: SPURRING CHANGE

Fuelled in large part by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, the United States has the world's largest government-funded war chest, estimated at $560 billion by the International Energy Agency (IEA), to be deployed on energy transition and energy efficiency measures.

More than $210 billion (37.6% of total) is earmarked for the development of low-carbon electricity and related efforts to aid the power sector's switch away from fossil fuels.

Companies engaged in the production of renewable energy equipment, in the deployment of clean energy supplies, and in the switching out of fossil fuel power for renewable systems are also eligible for tax breaks and other incentives.

An additional $140 billion (25%) is tied to reducing the carbon footprint of the country's transportation systems, including $66 billion for high-speed rail systems and around $40 billion in grants for public transport system upgrades.

Subsidies are also available for manufacturers of electric vehicles and batteries, and U.S. consumers can qualify for tax credits for electric vehicle purchases.

Nearly $80 billion (14%) is available for the development of clean fuels and for innovation in fuel technology, with the intention of creating a virtuous circle of production and consumption of green energy products within the United States.

EUROPE: SHIELDING CONSUMERS

While the United States is deploying over 60% of its government funding on low-carbon electricity and transport system overhauls, energy affordability has been by far the single largest focus of government spending in Europe.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, has the largest government spending total in the region ($339 billion), and has earmarked over $240 billion (72.6% of total) for an array of energy affordability measures.

Price caps on electricity and heating costs, capital injections into ailing utilities, and relief packages for cash-strapped households and businesses shell shocked by the surge in power costs account for nearly three quarters of the government spending on clean energy seen so far, IEA data shows.

France, Britain, Poland, Czechia, Croatia, Finland, Portugal and Greece, among others, have also spent over half of all clean energy related government spending on affordability measures.

Low carbon and efficient transport accounts for the next largest share of government spending in Europe (around 21%), followed by energy efficient buildings (14%), according to the IEA's data.

ASIA: SEEKING BALANCE

Major Asian nations including China, Japan and India are also spending heavily on energy affordability measures, which have so far accounted for roughly 50% of the region's government spending in the clean energy and energy efficiency areas.

However, Asian governments are also deploying major funding on low carbon electricity (roughly 16% of total spending), low carbon transport (around 12%) and on electricity network upgrades and expansions (7%), in an effort to develop positive momentum among carbon reduction and green energy supply efforts.

Several nations across Africa, Latin America and the Middle East have split spending allocations in a similar way.

However, as with most European nations, the heavy price tag associated with energy affordability measures means there is less funding available to be deployed on other areas associated with accelerating the energy transition.

That means that the United States' higher levels of government spending on low carbon electricity generation and transportation compared to other major economies may enable the country to build up development leads in those areas, and in time give the U.S. a competitive advantage over other nations as those investments bear fruit.

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The bind represented by former President Donald Trump’s indictment is that, based on the evidence we have now, he appears to be caught dead to rights. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Opinion | A Trump Pardon Could Drain Poison from the System

If Trump loses in 2024, sparing him jail time could ease our divided politics.

POLITICO USA, Opinion by RICH LOWRY, June 15, 2023 

Rich Lowry is editor in chief of National Review and a contributing writer with Politico Magazine.

It’s an idea whose time is inevitably coming for Republican presidential candidates — pardoning former President Donald J. Trump.

With the former president facing 37 counts in a federal indictment alleging violations of the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice, his fellow Republicans began discussing clemency even before Trump had entered a plea in the case in Miami.

Vivek Ramaswamy has led the way, making a pledge to pardon Trump his calling card. He is swaddling his case in selfless principle, saying that it’d be easier for him if Trump were out of the race, yet his commitment to justice forces him to act against his own interest … and say something that many Republican voters obviously want to hear.

Nikki Haley is inclined toward a pardon, too.

The middle of a primary campaign is not the best place to carefully think through the various equities involved in the criminal case against Trump and potential clemency, but the idea of pardoning Trump is a sensible one that, depending on the exact circumstances, truly could serve the public interest.

The bind represented by Trump’s indictment is that, based on the evidence we have now, he appears to be caught dead to rights; at the same time, nothing good is going to come from the political and legal warfare inevitable with the prosecution by the U.S. government of the leader of the opposition party.

The presidential pardon power is sweeping. The Supreme Court called it “unlimited” in the 1886 case Ex parte Garland. It extends to “every offence known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment.”

Among other things, it allows for the consideration of factors that the law alone might not take into account.

The most famous example from high politics is, of course, Gerald Ford pardoning Richard Nixon for offenses related to Watergate, although that episode dates from a different era when politics was a more serious business for more serious people. Ford didn’t go around bragging that he’d pardon Nixon to garner attention and curry favor with Nixon supporters, while Nixon, for all his desperate flaws, was a man of considerable substance and achievement.

Ford, of course, justified his act of clemency on grounds of moving on from, as he put it in his national address, “a tragedy in which we all have played a part. It could go on and on and on, or someone must write the end to it. I have concluded that only I can do that, and if I can, I must.”

We are still far away from getting to anything like this place. First, Trump would have to lose the Republican nomination, and he’s currently the strong favorite. Then, some other Republican would have to win the presidency, or President Joe Biden would have to see the wisdom of potentially keeping the vanquished Trump out of jail, either after beating him again or defeating another Republican.

All this is very speculative, and who knows where the documents case will stand in a year or two? It looks formidable now, but Trump has yet to mount a legal defense.

That said, the case for a pardon is straightforward.

The conventional wisdom is that our politics is over-heated. The worry over this is often exaggerated (things have been as or more feverish before), but having a former president stand trial in a federal criminal case, and potentially spend the rest of his life in jail, is only going to make things more intense and the country more divided. A pardon itself would be a flash point, as the Ford pardon of Nixon was, but it would at least take the unprecedented possibility of a former president behind bars off the table.

There is some significant plurality of the country that simply isn’t going to accept the legitimacy of the charges. Maybe this shouldn’t matter — the law is the law. If the shoe were on the other foot, though, and if it were the Ron DeSantis Department of Justice prosecuting a Democrat with a significant chance of running against him, there’d be an outcry from the same people now dismissing any doubts about the Trump prosecution.

Those doubts are based on more than the typical partisan suspicions of the other side. The Trump prosecution comes against the backdrop of the years-long Russia investigation by the FBI and special counsel Robert Mueller that cast a pall over Trump’s campaign and early presidency and that was based on gossamer thin, politically motivated information.

It comes after Hillary Clinton got a prosecutorial pass over her “home brew” email set-up as secretary of State that was designed to evade government record-keeping rules and that transmitted and stored classified information and sensitive discussions, putting their security at risk.

It comes as the Hunter Biden investigation has dragged on since 2018, with an IRS whistleblower now alleging a cover-up.

It comes at the same time as the Department of Justice has failed to appoint a special counsel to probe whether the Biden family has used its influence to enrich itself.

What we should want to avoid is a pattern of legal retribution and counter-retribution. That would distort our legal process beyond anything that’s happened to this point, further subordinating it to politics and undermining public trust in it. Perhaps this prosecutorial tribal warfare has already been unleashed, but a Trump pardon has a chance of sapping some of the poison out of the system.

It’s also worth emphasizing that in any of these pardon scenarios, Trump has lost his latest bid for the presidency, either in the primary or the general election. This means he’d presumably be a much-reduced figure, whether he’d been rejected by Republican primary voters or lost a national election a second time (although I thought the same thing after the 2020 election). We aren’t talking about a pardon clearing the way for another White House bid, but rather as a consolation prize for someone who is vastly diminished and looking at potentially losing his freedom, too.

There are reasonable objections to all this. Pardoning Trump would mean entrenching a norm that high-flying political figures don’t have to play by the same rules around the handling of classified documents that everyone else does. Also, usually someone asks for a pardon, and expresses remorse for their wrongdoing. It’s impossible to imagine Trump doing that. Finally, we don’t know what 2024 will look like, and it may be that by the end of it, Trump looks more unsympathetic to a Republican president and more loathsome to Joe Biden.

At the end of the day, a Trump pardon would be about book-ending the Trump era, trying to get beyond a noxious chapter that both he and his often unscrupulous, overzealous pursuers contributed to. If Trump is a Nixon, it’d be best for the country if he found his Gerald Ford.

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