News round-up, July 17, 2023
Quote of the days…
Kremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed
Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.
Most read…
El Salvador in the grip of the 'Bukele system'
Bukele has aligned himself with a group of Latin American leaders, including Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez in Honduras, who are willing to ignore constitutional limits to extend their time in power.
Le Monde by Angeline Montoya, published yesterday at 5:00 pm (Paris)Big Heat and Big Oil
A rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating that has caused extreme damage in recent weeks; and that rapid end is possible.
The New Yorker By Bill McKibben, July 16, 2023Vietnam's big bet on LNG may not ease its power crisis
Vietnam's urgent need to improve its electricity supply, which has been exposed by recent power outages, has raised concerns among foreign investors about Vietnam's reliability as a viable option for diversifying manufacturing operations away from China.
Reuters By Francesco Guarascio, Emily Chow and Khanh Vu, July 17, 2023EU considers gas imports from Argentina, document shows
The draft Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) emphasizes the common objectives of both parties in reducing global warming.
Reuters by Kate Abnett, July 17, 2023Kremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed
Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.
Reuters, July 17, 2023Russia-Ukraine War: “Explosions on Crimean Bridge Disrupt Key Link to Russia
A deadly attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge was the latest blow to a Russian military already dealing with internal strife.
NOW/The New York Time
At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
SOPA IMAGES/ Editing by Germán & CoEl Salvador in the grip of the 'Bukele system'
Bukele has aligned himself with a group of Latin American leaders, including Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez in Honduras, who are willing to ignore constitutional limits to extend their time in power.
Le Monde by Angeline Montoya, published yesterday at 5:00 pm (Paris)InvestigationNayib Bukele, the president of the Central American country, enjoys great popularity thanks to his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his fight against gangs. But his opponents criticize increasingly frequent breaches of democratic principles.
Nayib Bukele has won a war. The Salvadoran president often boasts on Twitter: "We're not the same anymore." Four years of "Bukeleism" have changed the face of El Salvador. Its 6.6 million nationals adore him, someot idolize him. He succeeded where all the others failed in defeating the pandillas, the gangs that have bloodied the country – and the Central American region – for more than two decades. Almost every day, Bukele tweets to his 5.2 million followers: "Another day with zero homicides," an assertion that has an undeniable impact when seven years earlier, there were almost 20 murders a day in the country.
The changes were noticeable when strolling through the streets of San Salvador, the capital. That day, children were playing football in a square. A couple was about to enjoy a drink on a terrace. A woman visited a friend. These scenes of everyday life were unthinkable just two years ago when gangs were sowing terror, extorting money from businesses, controlling entrances and exits to neighborhoods, threatening residents, and even banning the brands of sneakers worn by rival gangs.
The turning point came on March 27, 2022. After a particularly deadly weekend – authorities reported 87 murders – that undermined his stated policy of reducing crime, the president declared a war on gangs, greeted by the applause of an exasperated population. He also declared a state of emergency, which is still in force today. He deployed the army in the streets, surrounded entire towns to root out gang members, the pandilleros, and threw 70,000 people into prison. As a result, 1.6% of the population is now behind bars, the highest incarceration rate in the world. One year and three months later, the facts are striking. The investigative website El Faro verified this by visiting 14 towns previously under criminal groups' thumb. "The gangs do not exist at this moment as El Salvador knew them for decades," it writes.
Bukele, 41, is delighted. In the past, El Faro vilified his strategy against the pandilleros and the international community urged him to respect the rights of the detainees. "Let all the 'human rights' non-governmental organizations know we will wipe out these bloody murderers and their collaborators. We will put them in prison, and they will never get out," he tweeted again on May 17, after the murder of a police officer. Under his tweet were hundreds of replies from ministers, lawmakers, civil servants, journalists close to the government, and influencers, all determined to applaud, even praise, the most beloved president of the American continent. A CID Gallup study recently reported he enjoys a 92% popularity rating.
In the space of four years, the Salvadoran leader has become the model for a portion of the Latin American right. His recipes for tackling crime receive commendations. "El Salvador is a benchmark," said Zury Rios, the daughter of Guatemalan dictator Efrain Rios Montt, who was in power from 1982 to 1983. "He pulled off a real miracle in El Salvador," according to the far-right mayor of Lima, Rafael Lopez Aliaga, believed to be about to launch a "Bukele plan" to combat crime in Peru.
'Almost-religious relationship'
The war has been won, but at what price and for how long? According to numerous reports by local and international human rights organizations, thousands of innocent people have been arrested. Torture and inhuman treatment are "widespread" and "systematic" in prisons. Scores of detainees – at least 153, according to the NGO Cristosal, perhaps twice as many – have died from beatings, starvation, or lack of medical care. Public freedoms and civil society, particularly journalists, are under threat.
Although El Salvador is drifting toward authoritarianism, its residents seem willing to accept anything from the man who has also put an end to the 30-year hegemony of the two parties accused of plundering the country's wealth and increasing corruption to stratospheric levels: the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA, formed from the nationalist right) and the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (a Marxist guerrilla group that became a party after the 1992 peace accords that put an end to 12 years of civil war, FLMN).
"Two phenomena have converged to fuel Bukele's popularity," said analyst Oscar Picardo, director of the Institute of Science, Technology and Innovation at Francisco-Gavidia University in San Salvador. "On the one hand, there was the public's frustration with the corruption of these two parties. On the other, the disruptive figure of a young man, with an enchanting speech, and visually different, with his cap and jeans."
Government propaganda is helping reinforce that image: "Around a hundred videos promoting Bukele's image and policies are posted on social media every day, hammering positive messages and creating a cult of his personality," Picardo said. "An almost-religious relationship has developed between him and the population." A horde of young YouTubers and Twitter users glorify the self-proclaimed "coolest president in the world."
El Filtro, an alliance of four online media outlets, analyzed thousands of videos. On May 17 alone, YouTubers published 31 hours and 45 minutes of pro-Bukele content. "The majority of the population is hypnotized by the government's huge advertising machine," according to Jorge Guzman, a former examining magistrate. "Bukele does not even need to repress rare demonstrations of discontent. Authoritarian governments that repress have become unpopular, as in Nicaragua. This is not the case here."
Bukele knows a thing or two about propaganda. After failing law school, he took over the family advertising business set up by his father, Armando Bukele Kattan, a descendant of Christians from Bethlehem, Palestine. Discriminated against when they arrived in El Salvador at the beginning of the 20th century, Palestinian migrants became prosperous businessmen in the space of a century, imposing themselves on the wealthy local coffee producers to the extent that this minority of barely 1% of the population now accounts for up to 50% of the national economy.
This evolution cannot be explained without the Handals, the Zablahs, the Simans, and the Pomas families. "But the Bukeles were not part of the new elite," said a diplomat based in San Salvador. "Especially since Nayib's father had converted to Islam, founding El Salvador's first mosque, while almost all the Palestinians were Christians. They were doubly discriminated against: Because they were Palestinians, and because they were Muslims."
Demigod
Bukele, born on July 24, 1981, quickly tried to overcome the frustration of not belonging to the dominant class. As a teenager, he soon became a leader. "He was an average student, but he was the boss of a small group of classmates, many of whom joined his cabinet, and he was already sarcastic," said Picardo who was also his middle school social sciences teacher. He uses the same sarcasm to respond to today's critics. "If you like pandilleros so much, come and get them, and take them to your countries," he tells an international community poised to denounce the abuses of his "war on gangs."
In a country considered, like the rest of Central America, as the United States' backyard, his rhetoric against "Yanqui" imperialism and Western diktats on how to govern his country hits the mark. The inclusion in a list of corrupt Central Americans of many high-ranking Salvadoran officials and MPs reinforces the feeling that Washington, as always, wants to assert its rule.
Bukele presents himself as the guarantor of independence against the North American giant, accused of solely defending its interests. "The Americans spent the early days of his mandate publicly humiliating him, notably on Twitter," said a Western diplomatic source. "He managed to turn this into political capital and gain an aura throughout the region, which has good, historical reasons, to be 'anti-Yanqui.'"
Already acclaimed for his leadership as mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlan (2012-2015), a small town on the outskirts of the capital, and then as mayor of San Salvador (2015-2018), in both cases under the FMLN banner, Bukele honed his image as an incorruptible outsider by multiplying attacks on his party, accusing it of having sold out to neoliberalism. So much so that the FMLN decided to expel him in 2017. But the real springboard to his popularity was the Covid-19 pandemic.
The distribution of $300 in subsidies and food baskets made the new head of state, elected in 2019, a demigod in the eyes of the poor and disenfranchised. "No president has ever given me anything," said Rosalinda, a street vendor who has hung a portrait of the revered president delivered with the food baskets in her living room.
With Bukele, there was no conspiracy talk when it came to vaccines. He went out of his way to immunize his population, even affording himself the luxury of sending tens of thousands of doses to neighboring Honduras. In response to the economic crisis, he raised the minimum wage by 20% in August 2021 on the back of a one-year subsidy for small and medium-sized businesses and even subsidized petrol. The measures were hailed by an exsanguinated population ready to flee to the US.
Being the first country to introduce Bitcoin as its national currency also put El Salvador in the international spotlight, giving a sense of pride to a people too often associated with violence. "We signed our independence, but we were never really sovereign," Bukele said on the bicentenary of independence on September 15, 2022. "Now, El Salvador makes its own decisions."
So when he declared in the following sentence before an audience of ministers, senior civil servants, MPs, and ambassadors, that he would again run for the presidency on February 4, 2024, the audience – except for the diplomatic corps – rose to their feet roaring: "Re-election! Re-election!" But three constitutional articles prohibit immediate re-election. Article 88 of El Salvador's Constitution even obliges the population to insurrection in the event of failure to comply with the "indispensable" principle of transfer of power. As for those who "promote or support re-election," Article 74 strips them of citizenship rights. But Bukele does not bother with such details.
Authoritarian
The dismissal of the judges of the constitutional court on May 1, 2021, enabled their replacements to reinterpret the constitution more meekly: In September 2021, they decided that all the president needed to do to stand for re-election was to resign six months before the end of his term. Felix Ulloa, the country's vice president, told Le Monde last year: "The current constitution prohibits immediate re-election." On Sunday, June 25, he and Bukele officially registered as pre-candidates. "Nayib Bukele will resign before December 1, 2023," six months before the end of his current term of office, that is, Ulloa said on television.
Following Daniel Ortega's footsteps in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez ("JOH") in Honduras, Bukele joined the Latin American heads of state club determined to flout constitutional obstacles to stay in power. "He doesn't want to end up like 'JOH,' extradited to the US for drug trafficking at the end of his mandate," said a Salvadoran source close to the business community. "There's no way he will risk going to prison for taking state money."
Bukele presents himself as a herald of anti-corruption, but severe embezzlement suspicions hang over his government. To date, however, no investigation has been launched. In June 2021, the new prosecutor appointed by the government dismantled the International Commission for the Fight against Impunity in El Salvador (CICIES). Set up by Bukele himself in 2019, it had exposed at least 12 cases involving government members.
On June 1, during his address to the nation to mark his four years in office, Bukele said that, after his war against gangs, he would wage another, this time against corruption. He even promised a special prison for the corrupt, like a "terrorism detention center" designed to house 40,000 pandilleros inaugurated in January. El Salvador's former president Alfredo Cristiani, in office from 1989 to 1994, accused of being "one of the politicians who have done the most harm" to the country, was identified as his first target. "The president is very aggressive against the corruption of the past, but he protects the corruption of the present," said Johnny Wright, a former MP with the ARENA now affiliated with a center-left party. "He aims to wipe out any opposition linked to the ARENA or the FMLN." back to the early days of his mandate. The most serious warning came on February 9, 2020. That day, Bukele stormed the country's Legislative Assembly with military troops to force MPs to vote on funding a program combatting insecurity. He eventually backtracked after receiving a message from God, which asked him to be "patient." According to the international community and part of civil society, the development was dangerous. In the eyes of the population, which loves a strong man, it was a sign that the leader was ready to do anything to defend it against the establishment and the ARENA and FMLN MPs, who still have a majority and are fond of parliamentary obstruction.
'Judicial coup'
A year later, Bukele had his revenge. Nuevas Ideas (New Ideas, NI), the party he founded after being expelled from the FMLN, won two-thirds of the seats in the February 2021 legislative elections. The assembly, from that point dominated by his supporters, immediately dismissed the country's attorney general, in addition to magistrates of the constitutional tribunal. Appointed by the ARENA and the FMLN, they had blocked some of Bukele's initiatives during the first wave of Covid-19.
"Salvadorans returning from a trip, or others who failed to comply with quarantine requirements, were locked up for almost two months in detention centers without being given the results of their tests, or were contaminated on the spot," said Antonio Duran, a judge with the Zacatecoluca city court. "Some died for lack of treatment. The court then ordered their release, which led Bukele to say that the magistrates wanted the Salvadorans dead."
As for the attorney general, Raul Melara, he was investigating, with CICIES, corruption cases affecting the president's allies. "May 1, 2021, was one of the saddest days of my life," said Wright, who also took office that day. "We knew it would be a disruptive assembly, but nobody expected that. Looking back, we realize that judiciary control was an essential step for everything to follow."
A few days later, the new prosecutor, Rodolfo Delgado, terminated the CICIES' mandate. Bukele was able to govern without any checks and balances.
But he did not stop there. At the end of August 2021, he ordered the retirement of judges over 60 or with more than 30 years of service. They had the option of staying on for another five years, but on condition that they made themselves available to the Supreme Court. "This was a way of making them give up their independence since the government now controls the Court," said Guzman. Around a hundred magistrates took the deal on offer. Guzman resigned.
The best-trained and most experienced magistrates were either dismissed or moved to less central jurisdictions and replaced by colleagues easier to influence. This was the case of Duran, transferred from San Salvador to Zacatecoluca after criticizing a "judicial coup." "The idea was to isolate us from each other," he said.
There was no possibility of appeal. "The government co-opts all bodies: The police, the public prosecutor's office, the courts, the Supreme Court," said a judge who has also moved away from the capital and spoke on condition of anonymity. The same goes for the National Judicial Council, the Audit Office, and the Supreme Electoral Court. "We are no longer in the law but in the arbitrary," the judge said. Hector Gustavo Villatoro, the Salvadoran minister of justice, did not respond to interview requests by Le Monde.
Resentment
None of this has dented Bukele's popularity. "He was able to read the Salvadoran population," said anthropologist and journalist Juan Martinez d'Aubuisson, a gang specialist. "The population believes in authoritarianism, thinks that violence is didactic and a way of solving problems."
"One thing is that it's popular; another is that it's a good thing," emphasized Claudia Ortiz, an MP with the right-wing Christian Democrat party Vamos, founded in 2017, of which she is the sole representative in the Assembly. According to Ortiz, the reasons for the government's stated successes are not necessarily those people think.
Independent media have shown, for example, that the drop in homicides, which began before Bukele came to power and continued thereafter, was not so much due to government policy as to an agreement forged with the gangs. The murder of 87 people on the deadly weekend in March 2022, was the result of a breach of this agreement. Recordings revealed close contact between a high-ranking civil servant and criminal group leaders. Hundreds of disappearances were also reportedly not taken into account.
All previous governments have stumbled over the pandilla problem. Various methods have been tried – repression, secret or open negotiations with the gangs – to no avail. Bukele, on the other hand, has succeeded in establishing that he is the only one to have faced the problem and taken radical measures.
But among human rights activists and security experts, fears of yet another cycle of violence are high: "The [crackdown] campaign could generate resentment and perhaps backlash from gang members," warned the International Crisis Group in a report. According to researcher and security expert Jeannette Aguilar, the arbitrary arrests of innocent people are part of "an intimidation approach designed to instill fear in the population. The message is also aimed at opposition sectors and critical voices."
Members of NGOs, judges, and independent journalists are perceived as enemies. Journalists from El Faro, Revista Factum, Gato Encerrado, and La Prensa Grafica are in the crosshairs. Some 35 of them were spied on with Israel's Pegasus surveillance software, which the government denies having used.
A law passed in April 2022 punishes with 15 years' imprisonment anyone who transmits messages from the pandillas "likely to generate anxiety and panic among the population." When interviewed by Le Monde in August 2022, Ulloa admitted that the law was primarily aimed at journalists. El Faro was forced to move its administrative headquarters to Costa Rica to escape the pressure.
Public information, on the other hand, is systematically classified as a "state secret." Whether it concerns statistics on homicides, femicides, disappearances, Bitcoin purchases, or health policy, everything is confidential. "The government launches projects that are used for publicity, but then there's no way of knowing whether they've been useful, what the results have been," Ortiz said. "We have to take the government's word for it." The country's evolution is such that Duran and Guzman no longer hesitate to speak of "dictatorial drift." "We've gone back to the worst days of the armed conflict," Duran said. In such a context, the opposition struggles to make itself heard, crushed by the weight of MPs affiliated with NI and their allies. Bills are introduced at night, without consultation, and voted on the next day. The lack of "minimum working conditions" is why Wright has decided not to stand for re-election in 2024.
'Achilles' heel'
One year before the end of his mandate, Bukele is pursuing his policy of concentrating power. In early June, with the official aim of limiting state spending and fighting corruption, he passed a law reducing the number of seats in the Assembly from 84 to 60 and the number of municipalities from 262 to 44.
The international community is struggling to strike a balance between the diatribes uttered, to no effect, by Washington and the circumspection of the Europeans, anxious not to cut off the channels of communication with the government. "International bodies such as the United Nations and the Organization of American States have demonstrated that they do not have sufficient tools to curb the advance of authoritarianism in the region, including Nicaragua and Guatemala," Wright said. "The international community simply doesn't know what to do."
For some experts, the Bukele system can only be overcome if the economic situation deteriorates. "For the moment, the situation is stable," Picardo said, "but the government is going to need oxygen, and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund [IMF] are still at a standstill because of Bitcoin," something the IMF does not want to hear about. Admittedly, "country risk" – a measure of the risk of a government defaulting on its debts – has eased somewhat this year following the repayment of an $800 million bond maturity in January. As for inflation (7.3% in 2022), it remains under control compared with neighboring countries. But foreign investors are skeptical. "The economy will become the government's Achilles' heel," according to Picardo. "Bukele has spent millions organizing the World Surfing Championships and the Miss Universe ceremony. This will last another two or three years."
Wilson Sandoval, a political scientist and member of El Salvador's Center for Anti-Corruption Legal Advice, is convinced that while the regime is, for the time being, "a sophisticated dictatorship that doesn't yet need bloodshed," it is following the same path as Nicaragua. "Daniel Ortega also had very high levels of popularity at the start of his first term, around 80%," he said. "But then the population got fed up and ended up taking its authoritarian leaders to the scaffold. It may take ten years, but that's what's going to happen."
…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.
Javier Dib
Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes
Illustration by João FazendaBig Heat and Big Oil
The New Yorker By Bill McKibben, July 16, 2023A rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating that has caused extreme damage in recent weeks; and that rapid end is possible.
In the list of ill-timed corporate announcements, historians may someday give pride of place to one made by Wael Sawan, the new C.E.O. of Shell, the largest energy company in Europe. In 2021, Shell said that it would reduce oil and gas production by one to two per cent a year up to 2030—a modest gesture in the direction of an energy transition. But Sawan, who assumed command of the company in January, signalled a different direction. The rise in oil and natural-gas prices, following the invasion of Ukraine, had doubled Shell’s annual profits, to a record forty billion dollars. That windfall had an effect. While Shell remains committed to fighting climate change, Sawan told the BBC, cutting fossil-fuel production would actually be “dangerous and irresponsible,” because doing so could cause the “cost of living” to start to “shoot up.” (The company has also said that it already met the target it set in 2021 through asset sales, which would include the sale of various drilling sites to ConocoPhillips—a step that seems unlikely to fool the atmosphere.)
The BBC aired the interview on July 6th—the day that many scientists believe was the hottest so far in human history. Since 1979, a global network of satellites, ocean buoys, and land stations has been recording average daily temperatures, measured two metres above the ground, around the world. We’re at the very start of what seems likely to be a major El Niño warming event; the previous global high temperature came at the height of the El Niño in 2016, when the average hit 16.92 degrees Celsius, or 62.45 degrees Fahrenheit. Estimates vary somewhat, but on July 3rd the average temperature reached 17.01 C, and three days later it hit 17.23 C, or 63.01 F. Scientists who calculate historic temperatures by examining proxy records, such as lake sediments or ice cores, believe that this may well be the hottest it’s been on Earth since at least the peak of an era known as the Eemian, a hundred and twenty-five thousand years ago, when rising temperatures pushed mastodons north from present-day Texas to the Yukon. This would mean that nothing even remotely resembling a human civilization has ever known a world this hot.
To use Sawan’s first adjective, that heat is clearly dangerous. The fires and floods that have occurred in just these past weeks, all of them exacerbated by the heat, are too numerous to even begin to list here. If you’re not in a place currently experiencing or recovering from some weather emergency, consider yourself lucky, and use the respite to make preparations for the inevitable. (There was something symbolic about last week’s historic flooding in the Hudson Valley overwhelming West Point, the spiritual heart of what many might call the most powerful human force ever assembled.) The damage goes well beyond what you can capture in a cell-phone video: estimates indicate that at least forty per cent of the world’s oceans are currently undergoing what biologists have dubbed “marine heat waves,” doing systemic damage that we can only guess at; the temperature of the ocean, like that of the air, has never been higher in human history.
To use Sawan’s other adjective, standing by as this warming happened is the most irresponsible thing that humans have ever done. In June, 1988, the nasa scientist James Hansen told Congress to expect more or less what we saw last week. Fossil-fuel companies were already aware of the risks, but they decided to deny the science of climate change through three decades, when we could have been doing preventive work. There’s always been a reason for oil companies to stand in the way of action. At the moment, Sawan cites the risk of temporary inflation, and also the idea that, if we don’t expand oil and gas production, children in the Global South—he mentioned Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular—will have to study by “the light of candles.”
But solar lights that can shine all night charged with just four hours of sunlight can be had for a dollar, and Bangladesh is a world leader in small-scale solar. In recent years, homes in that country that do not get their power from the national grid have relied on rooftop solar panels to cope with power cuts. As for Pakistan, last fall it had the worst flooding in at least a decade—the kind of sustained deluge that happens only on a heating planet where the air holds increased amounts of water vapor. It left a third of the country underwater, and, more than six months later, unicef estimated that twenty million Pakistanis in the flood zones, including nine million children, were still in need of humanitarian aid.
The Earth’s temperature is going to go higher, no matter what we do: this month’s all-time records will almost certainly be broken in the coming year, as the new El Niño gathers strength. Many scientists predict that we will at least temporarily pass the 1.5-degree-Celsius increase that nations vowed, in the Paris Climate Agreement, to try to avoid. But how much higher is still an open question: a rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating; and that rapid end is possible, because solar and wind power and batteries to store it are now cheap and available. Texas got through an epic heat wave in the past few weeks largely because it has increased its solar and wind capacity, which kept air-conditioners running even as conventional power plants faltered.
But, in Texas, the Republican-led legislature spent much of the past year at work on laws that would discourage the use of renewables and prop up oil and gas. In Congress and on the campaign trail, the G.O.P. is expending far more energy in defending gas stoves than in doing anything about this growing crisis. So far, there’s no real political penalty for that kind of reckless behavior. Indeed, Sawan told the BBC that, while there are not currently any plans, Shell wouldn’t rule out moving its headquarters from the United Kingdom to the United States, where oil companies get higher market prices for their shares. (Britain has also implemented a windfall-profits tax on energy companies. ) This suggested to him that the U.S. is more supportive of oil and gas companies, and, as he has told investors, he wants to “reward our shareholders today and far into the future.”
That is pretty much the definition of “business as usual,” and it’s precisely what has generated this completely unprecedented heat. If the disasters we’re seeing this month aren’t enough to shake us out of that torpor, then the chances of our persevering for another hundred and twenty-five thousand years seem remote.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Model of LNG tanker is seen in this illustration taken May 19, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/Editing by Germán & CoVietnam's big bet on LNG may not ease its power crisis
Vietnam's urgent need to improve its electricity supply, which has been exposed by recent power outages, has raised concerns among foreign investors about Vietnam's reliability as a viable option for diversifying manufacturing operations away from China.
Reuters By Francesco Guarascio, Emily Chow and Khanh Vu, July 17, 2023HANOI, July 17 (Reuters) - Vietnam received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas this month, a milestone for the energy-hungry country, but various hurdles mean it could take years for imported gas to ease the country's long-running power shortages.
Disagreement over pricing, plant construction delays and lack of supply contracts are dogging the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub's adoption of LNG, hampering its ambitions to make imported gas a major fuel, industry insiders say.
Vietnam's urgent need to boost electricity supply, laid bare by recent rolling blackouts, has raised concerns among foreign investors about whether Vietnam can remain a reliable option to diversify manufacturing away from China.
Half the businesses in a June poll by the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam said the power crisis had hurt investment plans. Some were considering alternatives or pausing spending on factories.
Failure to execute on its LNG plans would mark another blow to Hanoi's climate goals, which include imported and domestic gas as a transition fuel to reduce coal reliance.
With demand forecast to grow 6% annually for the rest of the decade, Vietnam in May unveiled a $135 billion electricity roadmap that, among other investments, would add 13 power plants fed by gas imported as LNG by 2030.
Integrating LNG into its fuel mix, Vietnam would join neighbours Thailand and Singapore as well as the Philippines, a recent-adopter.
Vietnam's industry ministry did not respond to a request for comment on implementing its LNG plan.
TROUBLED PLANTS
The first LNG shipment reached Vietnam last week. The test cargo of super-chilled gas was sent to state-owned PetroVietnam Gas's (PV Gas) (GAS.HM) new Thi Vai terminal near Ho Chi Minh City for conversion back to gas.
Vietnam targets LNG-sourced gas generating up to 22.4 gigawatts (GW) of power by 2030, enough to power 20 million households and account for nearly 15% of national power supply. But Kaushal Ramesh, an analyst at Oslo-based Rystad Energy, said a realistic expectation was just 5 GW.
Complicating LNG efforts, much of Vietnam's planned gas power investment is directed to the south of the country despite the under-served north's greater vulnerability to blackouts.
The first northern plant that would be fuelled by imported gas is not scheduled to begin operation until the second half of 2027, said its Japanese developer, Tokyo Gas (9531.T).
The first plant due to come online, the Nhon Trach 3 facility being built by state-run PetroVietnam Power (PV Power) (POW.HM) near Ho Chi Minh City, is scheduled to begin operation in late 2024. Industry sources say 2026 or 2027 is more realistic.
The local authority cited delays caused by lack of long-term contracts and problems over funding and permits.
A key hurdle is that PV Power is struggling to agree with grid operator EVN on the volume of purchases and prices for electricity generated from its plants running on imported gas, now some 50% more expensive than domestic gas, people familiar with the talks said.
PV Power wants to sell at least 80% to 90% of its imported gas-fuelled power to EVN at a set price for two decades, while EVN wants to commit to a lower portion, four sources said.
Plant developers are seeking state guarantees on their power contracts with EVN, warning that lenders would not fund their projects otherwise, an industry insider said.
Disagreements over power pricing contributed to a slow uptake of the wind industry, leaving a significant share of wind farms unplugged from the grid for years and stranding at least 4.6 GW of onshore wind capacity, according to an internal document from a Group of Seven nation, seen by Reuters.
Foreign developers of LNG-supplied plants, which include U.S.-based AES (AES.N) and Japan's Marubeni (8002.T), are closely watching the pricing talks, which could set a benchmark for their negotiations.
Takafumi Akino of Tokyo Gas, which is building an LNG terminal and a gas plant in northern Quang Ninh province, predicted "hard negotiations".
PV Power and EVN did not reply to requests for comment.
The biggest proposed plant earmarked for imported gas, a 3.2 GW project developed by Singapore-based Delta Offshore Energy, is undergoing debt restructuring after defaulting on a $10 million loan from Gulf International Holdings, court documents showed.
Delta Offshore did not respond to requests for comment. Gulf International's parent, Thailand-based Gulf Energy Development (GULF.BK), declined to comment.
LOCKING IN SUPPLY
Delays and uncertainty make it harder to secure long-term LNG supplies as Vietnam must compete with other importers. Buyers across China, South and Southeast Asia have inked a slew of multi-year deals this year.
PV Gas said this month it was in talks with U.S. energy giant ExxonMobil and Russia's Novatek on LNG cooperation.
Two trading sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter said PV Gas had been seeking LNG supplies at "unrealistically low prices".
PV Power and EVN did not reply to requests for comment.
Without long-term LNG supply, Vietnam would be exposed to volatile spot prices, which in Asia spiked to a record $70 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) last year before sinking to $12/mmBtu now.
"There may be suppliers willing to offload some volume to PV Gas, although this is a completely different risk and credit profile compared to what LNG producers are used to," Rystad's Ramesh said.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
A general view shows a special ship, "Neptune", the floating liquefied natural gas terminal, during the inauguration of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal 'Deutsche Ostsee' in the port of Lubmin, Germany January 14, 2023. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse/File PhotoEU considers gas imports from Argentina, document shows
The draft Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) emphasizes the common objectives of both parties in reducing global warming.
Reuters by Kate Abnett, July 17, 2023BRUSSELS, July 17 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering possible gas imports from Argentina, which is a net gas importer but plans to expand domestic production, a draft document showed.
A draft memorandum of understanding, which the two sides plan to sign on Monday, said any gas trade should not impact Argentina's own consumption needs, and the two sides' targets to curb climate change.
"The participants endeavour to cooperate towards enabling a stable delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Argentina to the European Union," said the document, seen by Reuters, which could be changed before it is published.
The European Commission declined to comment on the draft.
Argentina has an energy deficit, meaning it needs to import fuel during the months when it consumes the most. It registered a $5 billion energy trade balance deficit in 2022.
But the country, which has the world's second largest unconventional gas reserves, is expanding production at Vaca Muerta, a shale formation in Patagonia.
European countries have for the last year been seeking new gas supplies, after former top supplier Russia cut flows following its invasion of Ukraine.
But the EU also expects its gas use to fall by the end of the decade as it seeks to meet climate change goals. It has said the majority of Russian gas supplies should be replaced with clean sources of energy, not fossil fuels.
Lisa Fischer, Programme Lead at climate think tank E3G, called on the EU to focus on supporting Argentina in developing renewable energy and other solutions that do not cause climate change.
"By the time the Argentinean gas comes online - and they don't even have the full export infrastructure to do so [to export gas to Europe] - I don't think the European Union will need that gas any longer," Fischer said.
The draft document said the two sides would work together in the areas of renewable energy and hydrogen fuel, and endeavour to cut methane emissions in their gas supply chains.
Image by Germán & CoKremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed
Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.
Reuters, July 17, 2023July 17 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Monday that it knew "very well" that NATO and the United States were providing intelligence to Ukraine but this was not a reason to cut off diplomatic ties with them following an attack on the bridge linking Russia and Crimea.
"In the most acute moments, we need channels for dialogue," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Peskov was asked about a comment by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova who, without providing evidence, accused Ukraine of carrying out the overnight attack on the bridge with the involvement of Britain and the United States.
"We know very well how deep the coordination is between the Kyiv regime, Washington, a number of European capitals and NATO," Peskov said.
"We know perfectly well how much information comes from NATO and Washington to Kyiv on a permanent basis. Therefore, we have no illusions here."
But a reporter's question about the possibility of cutting diplomatic relations with the West was "not quite correct" because of the need to keep dialogue channels open, he said.
NYT/Editing by Germán & CoRussia-Ukraine War: “Explosions on Crimean Bridge Disrupt Key Link to Russia
A deadly attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge was the latest blow to a Russian military already dealing with internal strife.
NOW/The New York TimeA predawn assault on a critical bridge linking the occupied Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia forced the temporary closure on Monday of a main artery used by its military to support its troops in southern Ukraine, in yet another blow to a Russian military command that was already dealing with internal strife.
Hours after the attack, Moscow announced that it was pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, an agreement that helped keep global food prices stable. But Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge and Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the deal were not connected.
Given the deep strategic and symbolic importance of the bridge, Monday’s assault was another embarrassment for Russia’s military leadership, which has been roiled by the fallout from last month’s failed mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group.
Russian officials said two people were killed in the attack and a third was injured. The extent of the damage remained unclear, but the assault again highlighted the vulnerability of this key piece of infrastructure far from the front lines.
Rail service over the bridge resumed Monday morning. But damage to the car lanes — which appeared to leave part of the road tilting, according to video verified by The New York Times — threatened to constrict Russian logistical operations. If the bridge were destroyed or severely damaged, Moscow would be left with a single major land route from Russia along the southern coast of Ukraine to support tens of thousands of soldiers fighting to hold onto territory captured in the first weeks of the invasion.
Pro-war Russian military bloggers and commentators were quick to use the attack on the bridge as evidence of what they said was another failure by the Russian military command. Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who runs a prominent blog about military affairs, said that Ukraine would strike again and again until the link is severed.
The attack came as Ukrainian forces were engaged in a grinding five-week-long counteroffensive aimed at driving Russian forces from areas of southern and eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are dug in behind fields laden with land mines, so the Ukrainian military has been forced to move cautiously and progress has been slow.
Isolating Russian forces in Crimea is an essential part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy, according to analysts. Ukrainian ground forces have been seeking to drive a wedge through the natural land bridge that connects Russia to the peninsula through southern Ukraine, and have repeatedly targeted the bridge that President Vladimir V. Putin ordered be built after Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.
Ukrainian officials offered no comment on the incident on Monday. But they have previously said that the 12-mile-long structure, a road and railway bridge that run in parallel, is a legitimate target because of its vital logistical role in the Kremlin’s war effort.
On Monday, Ukrainian officials celebrated the attack even as they maintained a studied policy of strategic ambiguity, declining to comment on any possible Ukrainian role.
“Any illegal structures used to deliver Russian instruments of mass murder are necessarily short-lived, regardless of the reasons for the destruction,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, said in a statement.
Monday’s assault came a little more than nine months after an Oct. 8 attack on the bridge by an explosives-laden truck forced the closure of one lane of traffic and damaged the railroad tracks.
Ukraine did not officially claim responsibility for that attack until May of this year, when the head of Ukraine’s security service, Vasyl Maliuk, acknowledged that the intelligence services took “certain measures” that allowed for the assault.
The National Anti-Terrorism Committee of the Russian Federation said in a statement that Ukraine attacked the bridge Monday using two maritime drones, a claim that could not be independently verified. Video and photographs verified by The Times showed damage to both sides of the road bridge, with the most significant being along a span of the bridge heading into Russia. One photo also showed a damaged car on the bridge.