News round-up, July 6, 2023
Quote of the day…
“President Harry Truman: “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one place to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”
THE TELEGRAPH UK / TODAY Censorship and Freedom of Speech
Capatilist vs. Communist Theory on Speech and Press Freedoms
HTTPS://CS.STANFORD.EDU/PEOPLE/EROBERTS/CS181/PROJECTS/2007-08/COMMUNISM-COMPUTING-CHINA/CENSORSHIP.HTML Freedom of information, speech and the press is firmly rooted in the structures of modern western democratic thought. With limited restrictions, every capitalist democracy has legal provisions protecting these rights. Even the UN Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the general assembly in 1948 declares "Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers" (although as Article 19, it comes after the right to hold property, be married and hold a nationality, among others). As such, western ethics heavily favor the nearly unfettered rights to speech, press and information. Such rights might be tailored to protect state security from a Lockesian social contract perspective, but a Kantian categorical outlook surely provides for a society in which everyone can speak freely is better to one in which no one can speak freely.
Communism, as a primarily economic system, is much quieter on the issue of individual human rights. Two conflicting positions on these freedoms arise with analysis of communist theory. The first is an argument against individual freedoms. In a communist society, the individual's best interests are indistinguishable from the society's best interest. Thus, the idea of an individual freedom is incompatible with a communist ideology. The only reason to hold individual speech and information rights would be to better the society, a condition which would likely be met only in certain instances rather than across time, making the default a lack of freedom.
On the other hand, the idea of perfect equality in communism argues for a right of expression and press. Since each individual is equally important, each should have an equally valid point of view. Indeed, Marx defended the right to a freedom of the press, arguing in 1842 that restrictions, like censorship were instituted by the bourgeois elite. He claimed censorship is a tool of the powerful to oppress the powerless.
Indeed, many implementations of communism favored a constitutional democracy, albeit usually with only one party. Before and at the creation of many communist countries, a desire for freedom from the oppression of the proletariat by the bourgeois translated into strongly voiced support for individual freedoms for speech, dissent and information. Chairman Mao, in encouraging his countrymen to prepare for WWII more than a decade before he came to power, proclaimed "[the people] should subject ... the party in power, to severe criticism, and press and impel it to give up its one-party, one-class dictatorship and act according to the opinions of the people....The second matter concerns freedom of speech, assembly and association for the people. Without such freedom, it will be impossible to carry out the democratic reconstruction of the political system." In 1945, closer yet to his assumption of power, Mao proclaimed, "Two principles must be observed: (1) say all you know and say it without reserve; (2) Don't blame the speaker but take his words as a warning. Unless the principle of 'Don't blame the speaker" is observed genuinely and not falsely, the result will not be 'Say all you know and say it without reserve." More striking still is the fact that this latter quote is recorded in "Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-Tung," more commonly known as the Little Red Book, a veritable bible of Chinese communism considered infallible during Mao's lifetime.
Thus, on the balance, it seems communist theory is compatible with freedoms of speech, information and protest, but it is far from a fundamental right such as it is under democracy and individual-centered ethics systems like that of Kant and Locke. Freedom of information should only be granted when communist society as a whole is likely to benefit. In this light, it makes much more sense that communist leaders, while still a persecuted opposition philosophy, would strongly support speech rights and later reject them when communism becomes the ruling system. At that point, access to oppositional speech and information is no longer beneficial to the communist state, and thus no longer needed in communist philosophy.
China in Practice
Modern day China, more than almost any other country in the world, severely restricts its citizens freedom of speech and expression. Oddly enough, Article 35 of the current Chinese constitution, written in 1982, stipulates "Citizens of the PRC have freedom of speech, publication, assembly, association, procession and demonstration." Up to the advent of the internet, the Chinese government had been able to successfully curtail this freedom in nearly all its physical manifestations. China has a tightly controlled traditional media, China forces all published information to be from official sources and to be vetted through the state. Ironically, the communist state founded on the backbone of Marx's words stipulates a minimum personal income of $35,000 dollars to be able to publish print media, an income level which could easily be considered bourgeois by Chinese standards. China also has strong restrictions against assembly and worship, demonstrated over the last few days with a crackdown on Tibetan protesters. Many assumed the government's ability to crack down on dissent would be destroyed by the increased prominence of a dynamic and nearly infinite internet space. However, China has adapted it's censorship policies to the internet, and by many standards managed to stay ahead of the curve in restricting free speech in the digital realm.
Internet use in China is blossoming. As of 2004 over 94 million users were online and in 2007 the China Internet Network Information Center, considered the premier source for measuring Chinese internet use, pegged the number of Chinese users at 210 million. This number will only grow in the foreseeable future, with the booming mobile market, more and more a popular portal to the internet, estimated to hit 600 million by 2010.
China Presents: The Internet (This realm has been modified from it's original version. It has been formatted to fit The Party's view of the world.)
This internet usage boom presents a variety of new challenges to a government adept at censoring traditional media types. The internet is much more vast than the physical realm controlled by China. It is not susceptible to the traditional local control structure relying on dedicated neighborhood party leaders to enforce edicts from the centralized government. Furthermore, the barriers to traditional information distribution of geography, money, and access to printing machinery, are no longer an issue in a digital realm where a cell phone or a few cents can buy time on the internet and allow anyone to blog their opinions.
China has responded with a vast centralized censorship program. One study by a group at Harvard in 2002, "found blocking of almost every kind of content. If it exists, China blocks at least some of it." The blocking has traditionally been centered on political and opinion based sites. Some of the most likely to be blocked are related to independence movements in Taiwan and Tibet, protest groups like the Falun-Gong, political parties opposed to the state, and sites on democracy. For the majority of Chinese web-users, these controversial topic-specific sites are not part of their daily internet routine, which focuses mostly on sports, entertainment and gaming sites. These users may have only the vaguest notion of the filtering being conducted by the government. Recently, however, the Great Firewall of China has evoked increased backblash as it has begun to block more popular websites like the photo-sharing site, Flickr and selected MySpace pages .
China's filtering and censorship program is regarded as the most sophisticated and effective in the world. It includes some 30,000 censors as well as technology, often provided by foreign companies like google and yahoo who are required to censor their results or be censored themselves. The filtering effort is in conjunction with a strict criminal prosecution system working with laws that forbid the publication of anything "(i) Denying the guiding status of Marxism, Mao Zedong Thought, or Deng Xiaoping Theory; (ii) Violating the Party line, guiding principles, or policies; (vii) Anything else that violates Party propaganda discipline or violates national publishing administration regulations." These laws are enforced with the aid of laws requiring all ISPs and internet cafes to record and store information about all users and their internet use.
Conclusions
It appears that the modern Chinese government has no interest in conforming to the platitudes of free speech, press and dissent espoused by Marx, Mao and it's own active constitution. While dissent may seem compatible within the framework of theoretical communism, it appears to be at odds with the communism practiced in China. In revoking its founders statements, the government's position may seem to oppose the spirit of communism; yet, the choices make perfect sense when considered in the framework of making decisions not on a priori ethical assumptions like democracies aspire to do, but rather on the basis of what is best for the communist society at the moment. While the world wide web may yet be too much for the well-oiled Chinese censorship machine to handle, the government has done remarkably well so far in providing a slimmer, more China-friendly version of the internet to its citizens.
Most read…
Largest-ever wind project off U.S. shores just got a green light
Ocean Wind 1, which could power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes, is the Biden administration’s third approval of a large offshore wind energy project
THE WASHINGTON POST BY KATE SELIG, JULY 5, 2023 Yellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China
The Treasury secretary will need to defend export controls and tariffs while explaining that the United States does not aim to harm China’s economy.
NYT BY *ALAN RAPPEPORT, JULY 6, 2023 Major banks yet to match EU with nuclear green label - study
The European Union (EU) has recently included nuclear power plants in its roster of environmentally sustainable investments. However, there is dissent among certain member countries regarding this decision. A study recommends that banks revise their green bond regulations to align with the EU's stance on this matter.
REUTERS BY SIMON JESSOP AND KATE ABNETT, EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JULY 6, 2023 NOW / Belarus leader Lukashenko says Prigozhin is back in Russia
State television heavily criticized Prigozhin yesterday, vehemently stating that the investigation is ongoing.
REUTERS BY GUY FAULCONBRIDGE, EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JULY 6, 2023 Inside the campaign branded the ‘largest attack against free speech in US history’
Campaigners argue the White House overstepped its power and limited free speech
THE TELEGRAPH BY JAMES TITCOMB, 6 JULY 2023 Image: The Telegraph editing by Germán & CoQuote of the day…
“President Harry Truman: “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one place to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”
The Telegraph UK / TodayCensorship and Freedom of Speech
Capatilist vs. Communist Theory on Speech and Press Freedoms
https://cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs181/projects/2007-08/communism-computing-china/censorship.htmlFreedom of information, speech and the press is firmly rooted in the structures of modern western democratic thought. With limited restrictions, every capitalist democracy has legal provisions protecting these rights. Even the UN Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the general assembly in 1948 declares "Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers" (although as Article 19, it comes after the right to hold property, be married and hold a nationality, among others). As such, western ethics heavily favor the nearly unfettered rights to speech, press and information. Such rights might be tailored to protect state security from a Lockesian social contract perspective, but a Kantian categorical outlook surely provides for a society in which everyone can speak freely is better to one in which no one can speak freely.
Communism, as a primarily economic system, is much quieter on the issue of individual human rights. Two conflicting positions on these freedoms arise with analysis of communist theory. The first is an argument against individual freedoms. In a communist society, the individual's best interests are indistinguishable from the society's best interest. Thus, the idea of an individual freedom is incompatible with a communist ideology. The only reason to hold individual speech and information rights would be to better the society, a condition which would likely be met only in certain instances rather than across time, making the default a lack of freedom.
On the other hand, the idea of perfect equality in communism argues for a right of expression and press. Since each individual is equally important, each should have an equally valid point of view. Indeed, Marx defended the right to a freedom of the press, arguing in 1842 that restrictions, like censorship were instituted by the bourgeois elite. He claimed censorship is a tool of the powerful to oppress the powerless.
Indeed, many implementations of communism favored a constitutional democracy, albeit usually with only one party. Before and at the creation of many communist countries, a desire for freedom from the oppression of the proletariat by the bourgeois translated into strongly voiced support for individual freedoms for speech, dissent and information. Chairman Mao, in encouraging his countrymen to prepare for WWII more than a decade before he came to power, proclaimed "[the people] should subject ... the party in power, to severe criticism, and press and impel it to give up its one-party, one-class dictatorship and act according to the opinions of the people....The second matter concerns freedom of speech, assembly and association for the people. Without such freedom, it will be impossible to carry out the democratic reconstruction of the political system." In 1945, closer yet to his assumption of power, Mao proclaimed, "Two principles must be observed: (1) say all you know and say it without reserve; (2) Don't blame the speaker but take his words as a warning. Unless the principle of 'Don't blame the speaker" is observed genuinely and not falsely, the result will not be 'Say all you know and say it without reserve." More striking still is the fact that this latter quote is recorded in "Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-Tung," more commonly known as the Little Red Book, a veritable bible of Chinese communism considered infallible during Mao's lifetime.
Thus, on the balance, it seems communist theory is compatible with freedoms of speech, information and protest, but it is far from a fundamental right such as it is under democracy and individual-centered ethics systems like that of Kant and Locke. Freedom of information should only be granted when communist society as a whole is likely to benefit. In this light, it makes much more sense that communist leaders, while still a persecuted opposition philosophy, would strongly support speech rights and later reject them when communism becomes the ruling system. At that point, access to oppositional speech and information is no longer beneficial to the communist state, and thus no longer needed in communist philosophy.
China in Practice
Modern day China, more than almost any other country in the world, severely restricts its citizens freedom of speech and expression. Oddly enough, Article 35 of the current Chinese constitution, written in 1982, stipulates "Citizens of the PRC have freedom of speech, publication, assembly, association, procession and demonstration." Up to the advent of the internet, the Chinese government had been able to successfully curtail this freedom in nearly all its physical manifestations. China has a tightly controlled traditional media, China forces all published information to be from official sources and to be vetted through the state. Ironically, the communist state founded on the backbone of Marx's words stipulates a minimum personal income of $35,000 dollars to be able to publish print media, an income level which could easily be considered bourgeois by Chinese standards. China also has strong restrictions against assembly and worship, demonstrated over the last few days with a crackdown on Tibetan protesters. Many assumed the government's ability to crack down on dissent would be destroyed by the increased prominence of a dynamic and nearly infinite internet space. However, China has adapted it's censorship policies to the internet, and by many standards managed to stay ahead of the curve in restricting free speech in the digital realm.
Internet use in China is blossoming. As of 2004 over 94 million users were online and in 2007 the China Internet Network Information Center, considered the premier source for measuring Chinese internet use, pegged the number of Chinese users at 210 million. This number will only grow in the foreseeable future, with the booming mobile market, more and more a popular portal to the internet, estimated to hit 600 million by 2010.
China Presents: The Internet (This realm has been modified from it's original version. It has been formatted to fit The Party's view of the world.)
This internet usage boom presents a variety of new challenges to a government adept at censoring traditional media types. The internet is much more vast than the physical realm controlled by China. It is not susceptible to the traditional local control structure relying on dedicated neighborhood party leaders to enforce edicts from the centralized government. Furthermore, the barriers to traditional information distribution of geography, money, and access to printing machinery, are no longer an issue in a digital realm where a cell phone or a few cents can buy time on the internet and allow anyone to blog their opinions.
China has responded with a vast centralized censorship program. One study by a group at Harvard in 2002, "found blocking of almost every kind of content. If it exists, China blocks at least some of it." The blocking has traditionally been centered on political and opinion based sites. Some of the most likely to be blocked are related to independence movements in Taiwan and Tibet, protest groups like the Falun-Gong, political parties opposed to the state, and sites on democracy. For the majority of Chinese web-users, these controversial topic-specific sites are not part of their daily internet routine, which focuses mostly on sports, entertainment and gaming sites. These users may have only the vaguest notion of the filtering being conducted by the government. Recently, however, the Great Firewall of China has evoked increased backblash as it has begun to block more popular websites like the photo-sharing site, Flickr and selected MySpace pages .
China's filtering and censorship program is regarded as the most sophisticated and effective in the world. It includes some 30,000 censors as well as technology, often provided by foreign companies like google and yahoo who are required to censor their results or be censored themselves. The filtering effort is in conjunction with a strict criminal prosecution system working with laws that forbid the publication of anything "(i) Denying the guiding status of Marxism, Mao Zedong Thought, or Deng Xiaoping Theory; (ii) Violating the Party line, guiding principles, or policies; (vii) Anything else that violates Party propaganda discipline or violates national publishing administration regulations." These laws are enforced with the aid of laws requiring all ISPs and internet cafes to record and store information about all users and their internet use.
Conclusions
It appears that the modern Chinese government has no interest in conforming to the platitudes of free speech, press and dissent espoused by Marx, Mao and it's own active constitution. While dissent may seem compatible within the framework of theoretical communism, it appears to be at odds with the communism practiced in China. In revoking its founders statements, the government's position may seem to oppose the spirit of communism; yet, the choices make perfect sense when considered in the framework of making decisions not on a priori ethical assumptions like democracies aspire to do, but rather on the basis of what is best for the communist society at the moment. While the world wide web may yet be too much for the well-oiled Chinese censorship machine to handle, the government has done remarkably well so far in providing a slimmer, more China-friendly version of the internet to its citizens.
Most read…
Largest-ever wind project off U.S. shores just got a green light
Ocean Wind 1, which could power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes, is the Biden administration’s third approval of a large offshore wind energy project
The Washington Post By Kate Selig, July 5, 2023 Yellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China
The Treasury secretary will need to defend export controls and tariffs while explaining that the United States does not aim to harm China’s economy.
NYT By *Alan Rappeport, July 6, 2023Major banks yet to match EU with nuclear green label - study
The European Union (EU) has recently included nuclear power plants in its roster of environmentally sustainable investments. However, there is dissent among certain member countries regarding this decision. A study recommends that banks revise their green bond regulations to align with the EU's stance on this matter.
REUTERS by Simon Jessop and Kate Abnett, Editing by Germán & Co, July 6, 2023NOW / Belarus leader Lukashenko says Prigozhin is back in Russia
State television heavily criticized Prigozhin yesterday, vehemently stating that the investigation is ongoing.
Reuters By Guy Faulconbridge, editing by Germán & Co, July 6, 2023Inside the campaign branded the ‘largest attack against free speech in US history’
Campaigners argue the White House overstepped its power and limited free speech
The Telegraph By James Titcomb, 6 July 2023 
At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
This photo from 2016 shows offshore wind turbines near Block Island, R.I. The Biden administration on Tuesday approved a large offshore wind energy project to be built off the coast of New Jersey, which faces local opposition. (Michael Dwyer/AP)Largest-ever wind project off U.S. shores just got a green light
Ocean Wind 1, which could power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes, is the Biden administration’s third approval of a large offshore wind energy project
The Washington Post By Kate Selig, July 5, 2023 The Biden administration gave a green light Wednesday to the largest-ever offshore wind project the U.S. has yet approved, paving the way for dozens of turbines that could eventually power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes.
The approval of Ocean Wind 1′s plan for construction and operations is a milestone for the project, which has faced fierce opposition from Republican lawmakers and residents in New Jersey. The project would be the state’s first utility-scale offshore wind farm and could power as many as half a million homes with clean energy, according to Orsted, the Danish energy company developing the project.
“The announcement of Ocean Wind 1’s Record of Decision today represents a pivotal inflection point not just for Orsted, but for New Jersey’s nation-leading offshore wind industry as a whole,” said New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a proponent of offshore wind energy, in a release.
Construction is already underway on the other two large offshore wind projects approved by the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM).
The Vineyard Wind 1 project off Massachusetts and the South Fork Wind project off Rhode Island and New York are expected to generate about 800 megawatts and 130 megawatts of energy, respectively.
Ocean Wind 1 is the largest project of the three. Orsted projects that Ocean Wind 1 will deliver 1,100 megawatts of energy from up to 98 General Electric Haliade-X wind turbines placed approximately 15 miles off the coast of southern New Jersey. Orsted says the project could power approximately 500,000 homes, though BOEM has a slightly lower projection of roughly 380,000.
“The [approval] represents a critical step toward harnessing clean, renewable offshore wind to power New Jersey’s homes and businesses,” said Allison McLeod, the senior policy director of New Jersey League of Conservation Voters.
The Department of the Interior described the approval as a step forward for the offshore wind industry and as constituting “significant progress” toward the Biden administration’s goal of developing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030 in a release.
“The Biden-Harris administration has worked to jump-start the offshore wind industry across the country — and today’s approval for the Ocean Wind 1 project is another milestone in our efforts to create good-paying union jobs while combating climate change and powering our nation,” said Interior Secretary Deb Haaland in the release.
But to reach the administration’s climate goals, proposed wind projects up and down the East Coast will need to overcome steep obstacles, including opposition from Republicans and local residents. The resistance is especially fierce in Cape May County, where a number of coastal communities will be able to spot the wind turbines from the shore.
Residents have joined groups such as Protect Our Coast NJ to rally against the project on the basis of concerns ranging from the deaths of whales to the impact that the turbines could have on local tourism. These activist groups have taken legal action against the wind project.
The county has also enlisted lawyers in its effort to halt the offshore wind development. In June, the county voted to add an additional two law firms to its legal team to challenge federal regulatory decisions and the permits that the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection issued to Orsted.
Former New Jersey Superior Court Judge Michael J. Donohue, who is serving as special counsel to the county, said Cape May County is reviewing BOEM’s decision and “will determine what avenues for legal challenges, if any, exist to pursue.”
In addition to legal challenges, Ocean Wind 1 has suffered from rising interest rates and inflation. The New Jersey legislature narrowly approved a bill last week to let Orsted keep federal tax credits in an effort to address what lawmakers described as lingering economic harms from inflation and the covid-19 pandemic.
Despite these setbacks, Orsted said in a release that with the BOEM approval, the project remains on track to begin onshore construction this fall and ramp up offshore construction in 2024. The project is expected to begin commercial operations in 2025, according to the company.
…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.
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Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU
Image by Germán & CoYellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China
The Treasury secretary will need to defend export controls and tariffs while explaining that the United States does not aim to harm China’s economy.
NYT By *Alan Rappeport, July 6, 2023*Alan Rappeport covers the Treasury Department and is traveling with Secretary Janet L. Yellen to China this week.Since then, Ms. Yellen has emerged as a voice of moderation in the Biden administration, embracing the mantle of economic pragmatism as the world economy copes with inflation and sluggish growth. The Treasury secretary has expressed objections to China’s record on human rights, called for diversifying American supply chains and acknowledged that protecting national security is paramount.
But she has also been the administration’s most prominent proponent of maintaining economic ties with China, arguing against tariffs, urging caution on new restrictions on investment in China and, most recently, warning that decoupling the two economies would be “disastrous.”
Set to arrive in Beijing on Thursday for a four-day visit, Ms. Yellen will be navigating those conflicting interests in real time. The trip, her first as Treasury secretary, represents Ms. Yellen’s most challenging test of economic diplomacy to date as she attempts to ease years of festering distrust between the United States and China.
For Ms. Yellen, the challenge will be to convince her Chinese counterparts that the bevy of U.S. measures blocking access to sensitive technology such as semiconductors in the name of national security are not intended to inflict harm on the Chinese economy. That will not be easy, as both countries continue to erect new barriers to trade and investment.
The Biden administration is preparing several new restrictions on U.S. technology trade with China, including potential limits on advanced chips and U.S. investment in the country. Forthcoming rules also appear likely to clamp down on Chinese companies’ access to U.S. cloud computing services, according to people familiar with the matter, in an effort to close a loophole in earlier restrictions on China’s access to advanced chips used for artificial intelligence.
This week Beijing retaliated against the Biden administration’s limits on semiconductors, announcing it would restrict the export of certain critical minerals used in the production of some chips.
On Monday, ahead of her trip, Ms. Yellen met in Washington with Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to the United States, and laid out “issues of concern” in what the Treasury Department described as a frank conversation. According to a summary of the conversation released by the Chinese Embassy, Mr. Xie explained China’s objections to America’s trade practices and urged the United States to take steps to resolve them.
In her meetings in Beijing, Ms. Yellen is expected to make the case that the Biden administration’s actions to make the U.S. economy less reliant on China and to entice more production of critical materials inside the United States are narrowly focused measures that are not meant to instigate a broader economic war. China continues to hold nearly $1 trillion of U.S. debt and is America’s third-largest trading partner, making an abrupt severing of ties potentially calamitous for both countries and the global economy.
“I think she is going to go as the sober voice of reason to say this is not about containment,” said Tim Adams, the president of the Institute of International Finance and a former Treasury under secretary for international affairs. “It’s really about setting the tone of cooperation and showing that the U.S. remains interested in being engaged with China on trade and investment.”
Through the past several decades, the Treasury has consistently been the American government agency that has tried hardest to maintain friendly relations with China. Wall Street firms, a key constituency for the department, tried through the 1990s to win access to the Chinese market through China’s negotiations to join the World Trade Organization. After China joined the W.T.O. in 2002, Wall Street firms and the Treasury Department pushed for China to move faster in actually opening its markets.
Beijing finally agreed in November 2017 to allow foreign investors to hold much larger stakes in insurance, banking and securities businesses, as part of a series of concessions made in an unsuccessful attempt to head off a trade war with the Trump administration.
While it is her first trip to Beijing as Treasury secretary, Ms. Yellen is no stranger to China. In her role as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, she had regular contact with Chinese officials, and as chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018 she would meet with officials from China’s central bank at international gatherings.
The Zhoushan port in the Chinese province of Zhejiang. China is America’s third-largest trading partner, making an abrupt severing of ties potentially calamitous for both countries and the global economy.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Ms. Yellen’s credentials as an academic economist have made her a welcome emissary in Beijing.
“They like her very much because she looks at the world in economic terms, and they’re extremely comfortable with that,” said Craig Allen, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council.
Michael Pillsbury, a senior fellow for China strategy at the Heritage Foundation, said that Chinese officials viewed Ms. Yellen as a voice of reason and that they hoped she would be able to make the case to others in the Biden administration that the United States should back away from new investment restrictions and roll back tariffs.
“They want Janet to help,” said Mr. Pillsbury, who was a top adviser on China in the Trump administration. “They see her as a friend of China.”
Ms. Yellen does not direct trade policy, but she has been critical of the tariffs that President Donald J. Trump imposed on more than $300 billion of Chinese imports.
“Tariffs are taxes on consumers,” Ms. Yellen told The New York Times in 2021. “In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, and the type of deal that the prior administration negotiated really didn’t address in many ways the fundamental problems we have with China.”
Those tariffs remain under review by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and Ms. Yellen has acknowledged that they are unlikely to be rolled back anytime soon.
Ms. Yellen’s ability to forge deeper ties with Beijing could be complicated by the current political moment.
Concerns about China have grown after a spy balloon traversed the United States before being shot down over the Atlantic Ocean. The upcoming presidential election is also likely to escalate anti-China rhetoric as candidates look to paint themselves as tough on China, often a winning campaign message. And Republicans have been expressing criticism of greater U.S. outreach to China.
Ms. Yellen’s visit follows a trip last month by Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state. John F. Kerry, the special climate envoy, is expected to make a trip to Beijing soon.
Representative Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican who leads the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, accused the Biden administration of slow-walking export restrictions targeting Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant, and sanctions against Chinese officials responsible for human rights violations against Uyghurs in Xinjiang. He argued that China’s behavior had gotten worse while the Biden administration pursued “zombie engagement” with the Chinese Communist Party.
“After Secretary Blinken left Beijing with little to show for his trip, doubling down by sending additional cabinet-level officials like Secretary Yellen would only perpetuate this vicious cycle,” Mr. Gallagher said.
With Republican presidential candidates like Nikki Haley warning that China is “preparing for war” with the United States, there is additional urgency for Ms. Yellen to find ways to keep the lines of communication with her Chinese counterparts open even if her trip does not yield any major breakthroughs.
“The Chinese are very aware of the U.S. election cycle, and in my mind this is partly why they have been willing to be a little more open,” said Eswar Prasad, a former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “Both Secretary Yellen and the Chinese would like to get back to a place where they see at least parts of the economic relationship as a positive-sum game, rather than a zero-sum game.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
An excavator works near Hungary's Paks nuclear power plant to prepare the new Paks II construction site in Paks, Hungary, May 9, 2023. REUTERS/Marton Monus/File Photo / Editing by Germán & CoMajor banks yet to match EU with nuclear green label - study
The European Union (EU) has recently included nuclear power plants in its roster of environmentally sustainable investments. However, there is dissent among certain member countries regarding this decision. A study recommends that banks revise their green bond regulations to align with the EU's stance on this matter.
REUTERS by Simon Jessop and Kate Abnett, Editing by Germán & Co, July 6, 2023LONDON/BRUSSELS, July 6 (Reuters) - None of the world's 30 major banks have explicitly included nuclear energy in their criteria for issuing green or sustainability-linked bonds, researchers said on Thursday, despite an EU decision last year to label it as sustainable.
The European Union decided last year to include nuclear power plants in its list of investments that can be labelled and marketed as green. The move aimed to guide investors towards climate-friendly technologies, but split EU countries who disagree on atomic energy's green credentials.
So far, banks have not followed the EU's lead in their own green bond rules, according to an analysis by Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. The study looked at the 30 banks deemed systemically important by the Financial Stability Board.
Of those banks, 17 had explicitly excluded nuclear energy from their green financing frameworks, while 12 had frameworks that were silent on nuclear, and one had no such framework, the researchers said.
The EU's own green bond standard includes nuclear power. But exclusion from banks' frameworks could restrict the sector's access to a fast-growing pool of sustainable capital.
Green bond issuance hit a record high globally in both the first and second quarters of 2023, Refinitiv data showed.
Research co-author Matt Bowen said he was surprised nuclear energy was so often excluded from banks' green finance guidelines, given its potential contribution to fighting climate change.
Nuclear energy does not produce climate-damaging CO2 emissions in the same way that fossil fuels such as oil and gas do, but it does produce radioactive waste.
Countries including Germany and Austria oppose the energy source and lobbied against the EU's decision to label it as green, citing concerns including waste disposal, the potential risk of accidents and long delays to recent nuclear projects.
The International Energy Agency has said global nuclear capacity would need to roughly double by 2050, if the world is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko walks before a press conference in Minsk, Belarus July 6, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/ Editing by Germán & CoNOW / Belarus leader Lukashenko says Prigozhin is back in Russia
State television heavily criticized Prigozhin yesterday, vehemently stating that the investigation is ongoing.
Reuters By Guy Faulconbridge, editing by Germán & Co, July 6, 2023MINSK, July 6 (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who last month brokered a deal to end an armed mutiny in Russia, said on Thursday that Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was no longer in Belarus.
Lukashenko said on June 27 that Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group whose fighters briefly captured a southern Russian city and marched towards Moscow, had arrived in Belarus as part of the June 24 deal that defused the crisis.
But Lukashenko told reporters on Thursday: "As for Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg (Russia's second biggest city). He is not on the territory of Belarus."
A business jet linked to Prigozhin left St Petersburg for Moscow on Wednesday and was heading for southern Russia on Thursday, according to flight tracking data, but it was not clear if the mercenary chief was on board.
Lukashenko said an offer for Wagner to station some of its fighters in Belarus - a prospect that has alarmed neighbouring NATO countries - still stands.
He said he did not see it as a risk to Belarus and did not believe Wagner fighters would ever take up arms against his country.
Lukashenko has spoken proudly of his role in ending the armed mutiny, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has said could have plunged Russia into civil war. Last week Lukashenko said he had persuaded Putin not to "wipe out" Prigozhin.
But much remains unclear about the terms of the deal Lukashenko brokered, and whether it is being implemented as agreed.
Russian state TV on Wednesday launched a fierce attack on Prigozhin and said an investigation into what had happened was still being vigorously pursued.
Source: The Telegraph UK Editing by Germán & CoInside the campaign branded the ‘largest attack against free speech in US history’
Campaigners argue the White House overstepped its power and limited free speech
The Telegraph By James Titcomb, 6 July 2023 As the Delta variant spread across the US in July 2021, Clarke Humphrey, an official at the White House’s Covid-19 response team, emailed two Facebook executives asking them to take down an Instagram account impersonating Anthony Fauci.
“Hi there – any way we can get this pulled down? It is not actually one of ours,” Humphrey wrote. Less than a minute later, Facebook responded: “Yep, on it!”
The account imitating the then chief medical adviser was duly deleted – far quicker than if it had been reported through Instagram’s standard channels.
The emails are among those in a cache of more than 15,000 gathered by state prosecutors in a lawsuit against the US officials including Joe Biden, seeking to shut down contact between the White House and social media giants.
Last year, Louisiana and Missouri’s attorneys general, alongside a number of prominent anti-vaccine campaigners, sued the White House, seeking a ruling that the communication violated US free speech laws.
On Tuesday – the Independence Day timing may or may not have been a coincidence – a judge appointed by Donald Trump issued a stunning injunction forbidding a lengthy list of White House officials from making contact with social media companies to report misinformation.
The order bars individuals including Xavier Becerra, the US health secretary, Vivek Murthy, the surgeon general, and Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House Press Secretary, among dozens more officials, from “urging, encouraging , pressuring, or inducing in any manner the removal, deletion, suppression, or reduction of content containing protected free speech posted on social-media platforms”.
In a 155-page ruling, the judge, Terry Doughty, said the case “arguably involves the most massive attack against free speech in United States’ history” and compared the administration’s actions to the “Ministry of Truth”, the repressive censorship authority in George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four.
The Biden administration is likely to appeal the injunction – which is not final – and said it did not order posts to be taken down. However, it is a major victory for campaigners who have argued that democratic governments overstepped their power during the pandemic, including restrictions on free speech.
The trove of emails, obtained through legal requests, contain no single smoking gun. Instead they illustrate ongoing pressure from officials at various US government agencies to pressure YouTube, Twitter, and – in particular – Facebook parent Meta to act faster and more aggressively on anti-vaccine posts, conspiracy theories and the lab-leak theory.
Sir Nick Clegg, the former deputy prime minister and Meta’s president of global affairs, was intimately involved in the White House discussions, sending regular reports on how the company was tackling misinformation and pushing back on public pronouncements from officials criticising Meta.
In one phone call between Murthy and Sir Nick, the surgeon general asked Meta to do more to tackle misinformation. In another email in 2021, Andy Slavitt, the White House’s senior Covid-19 adviser, emailed Sir Nick complaining about a post from the Fox News host Tucker Carlson expressing scepticism about vaccines.
“Number one on Facebook. Sigh,” Slavitt wrote, according to legal documents. Sir Nick responded saying the post did not break Facebook’s rules, but was being demoted so that fewer people would see it in news feeds. Rob Flaherty, the White House’s director of digital strategy, responded saying: “There’s 40,000 shares on the video. . . . How effective is that?”
He added: “Not for nothing but last time we did this dance, it ended in an insurrection,” referring to the January 6 attack on the Capitol. In other emails, Sir Nick apologised for not responding to posts that broke Facebook’s rules more quickly, the documents say.
After Biden made an offhand remark accusing Facebook of “killing people” by allowing posts criticising the vaccine, Sir Nick texted Murthy, the surgeon general. “It’s not great to be accused of killing people,” he wrote. Nonetheless, at a subsequent meeting, Facebook agreed to “do more” to tackle Covid misinformation.
Despite the occasional resistance from Facebook, emails published as part of the lawsuit often showed White House officials berating social media companies, who were deferential in response. “We think there is considerably more we can do in ‘partnership’ with you and your team to drive behaviour,” one executive wrote.
Officials were also active in encouraging Twitter and YouTube to remove content, according to the order. In the early weeks of the administration, Flaherty emailed Twitter asking them to remove a parody account linked to Biden’s granddaughter, writing: “Please remove this account immediately.” It was gone 45 minutes later.
Humphrey asked the company to remove an anti-vaccine tweet by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Later that year, Christian Tom, a deputy director of digital strategy, asked Twitter to remove a digitally altered video of Jill Biden that made it appear as if the First Lady was swearing at children. Twitter initially said it did not violate its policies, but later removed the clip.
YouTube, meanwhile, was asked why it was “funnelling people into hesitancy” over the vaccine. The companies did not comment.
The White House denied that it had forced social media companies to take material offline.
“Our consistent view remains that social media platforms have a critical responsibility to take account of the effects their platforms are having on the American people, but make independent choices about the information they present,” it said.
But as the lawsuit argues, the conversations were not taking place in a vacuum. They came as debates raged across Congress about whether to remove “Section 230” protections enjoyed by social media companies that limit responsibility for what their users post, and as the US government pursued lawsuits against Facebook and Google seeking to break the companies up.
Whatever the case’s ultimate outcome, its plaintiffs may believe they have already been successful. A “Disinformation Governance Board” set up last April, which prompted the lawsuit, was disbanded in August.
After reporting by The Telegraph, the UK Government is under pressure to shut down its own Counter Disinformation Unit, which passed information to social media companies to encourage them to take down posts. And Elon Musk, a champion of conservative voices, now owns Twitter.
In his conclusion, the judge quoted the late Democrat president Harry Truman: “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one place to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”
News round-up, July 5, 2023
By the way of…
The meeting between Modi, Putin, and Xi on Thursday could end a long-standing narrative titled:
"I Love You, But I am Not In Love With You..."
Or, to the brilliant Milan Kundera thinking’s:
“The true essence of emotions lies not in yearning for a passionate tryst but rather in yearning for a peaceful slumber with a cherished companion...
Russia, China, and Indian leaders will hold a virtual Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to discuss their priorities and objectives.
For Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, it is imperative to demonstrate his authority in response to the uprising of the Wagner mercenary group and to secure international support for his ill-fated and unsuccessful military intervention in Ukraine. Putin needs the support of his fellow leaders; however, he only received —superficial displays of affection— during the previous convention. A sense of caution has accompanied China's support in bolstering Putin's position.
Consequently, Xi has already encountered strained relations with his European counterparts due to their divergent positions on issues related to Russia. In stark contrast, Xi Jinping expressed his disapproval of the United States and called for an end to hegemonic practices.
Finally, Narendra Modi, the —arising start— Prime Minister of India, will seize the opportunity to highlight India's growing influence and indirectly convey disapproval towards Pakistan. Given the strategic considerations and the imperative to counterbalance China's influence, it is likely that India will continue to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) actively.
———————————————
Zaporiyia Nuclear Power Plant Today
Concerns have arisen regarding the current state of the Zaporiyia Nuclear Power Plant, located close to the Chernobyl disaster site. These concerns stem from deliberately damaging a vital dike that supplies water to cool down the reactor.
In her latest work, "The Ridiculous Idea of Never Seeing You Again," Rosa Montero, born on January 3, 1951, in Cuatro Caminos, the acclaimed Spanish journalist and contemporary fiction author, takes us on a profound journey that intertwines the life of Marie Curie, was born on November 7, 1867, in Warsaw, Congress Kingdom of Poland, Russian Empire and passed away on July 4, 1934, near Sallanches, France. By using the biography of the Nobel Prize, Marie Curie as a narrative thread, Montero skillfully invites us to reflect on the challenges of our time. Montero's book is challenging to categorize and opens with a striking sentence: "As I have not had children, the most important thing that has happened in my life is my death." This diary-like narrative explores the life and contributions of Marie Curie, a Polish chemist and physicist who later became a French citizen. Thanks to Curie and her husband, Pierre, we can now combat cancer, but “Curie's explanations about the dangers of radiation are unparalleled. It is crucial to remember that exposure to radium radiation can destroy malignant tissue, making it an effective treatment for halting the growth of cancerous tumors. Radium is also used as a source of neutrons in scientific experiments and in the production of radon for cancer treatment and other medical procedures. Polonium, on the other hand, is utilized in devices designed for static charge removal, special brushes used to eliminate dust that has accumulated on photographic film, and as heat sources for artificial satellites or space probes. Unfortunately, not all applications of these elements are positive, as their high radioactivity also poses a significant potential for harm. For example, when polonium is mixed with beryllium (a common element used for alloy hardening), it can cause a rapid implosion that triggers a chain reaction at the atomic level with other elements. As you may have guessed, this makes it an essential component of the atomic bomb.
Most read…
Judge Orders Biden Officials to Limit Contact With Social-Media Companies
Ruling says Biden administration policing of social media likely violated First Amendment
WSJ BY JACOB GERSHMAN, JULY 4, 2023 Wagner rebellion raises doubts about stability of Russia’s nuclear arsenal
The current situation in Russia has generated apprehension and unease among officials in Western countries. There is a legitimate concern that whoever assumes control over Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction could pose a significant threat to global security.
THE WASHINGTON POST BY ROBYN DIXON, JULY 5, 2023 European Green Deal: More leaders call for 'a regulatory pause'
In the run-up to the 2024 elections, heads of state from the EU-27 are seeking to take into account the economic and social challenges posed by Russia's attack on Ukraine, including food security and the cost of living.
LE MONDE BY VIRGINIE MALINGRE, YESTERDAY (PARIS) Saudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong
Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain robust oil cooperation within the OPEC+ alliance. It is comforting to know that the alliance is willing to take any necessary actions to support the market, as Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman mentioned.
REUTERS BY AHMAD GHADDAR, ALEX LAWLER AND SHADIA NASRALLA, EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JULY 5, 2023 Source: The case tests the limits on government scrutiny of social-media content on sites like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: MATT CARDYBy the way of…
The meeting between Modi, Putin, and Xi on Thursday could end a long-standing narrative titled:
"I Love You, But I am Not In Love With You..."
Or, to the brilliant Milan Kundera thinking’s:
“The true essence of emotions lies not in yearning for a passionate tryst but rather in yearning for a peaceful slumber with a cherished companion...
Russia, China, and Indian leaders will hold a virtual Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to discuss their priorities and objectives.
For Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, it is imperative to demonstrate his authority in response to the uprising of the Wagner mercenary group and to secure international support for his ill-fated and unsuccessful military intervention in Ukraine. Putin needs the support of his fellow leaders; however, he only received —superficial displays of affection— during the previous convention. A sense of caution has accompanied China's support in bolstering Putin's position.
Consequently, Xi has already encountered strained relations with his European counterparts due to their divergent positions on issues related to Russia. In stark contrast, Xi Jinping expressed his disapproval of the United States and called for an end to hegemonic practices.
Finally, Narendra Modi, the —arising start— Prime Minister of India, will seize the opportunity to highlight India's growing influence and indirectly convey disapproval towards Pakistan. Given the strategic considerations and the imperative to counterbalance China's influence, it is likely that India will continue to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) actively.
Concerns Surrounding the Zaporiyia Nuclear Power Plant Today
Concerns have arisen regarding the current state of the Zaporiyia Nuclear Power Plant, located close to the Chernobyl disaster site. These concerns stem from deliberately damaging a vital dike that supplies water to cool down the reactor.
In her latest work, "The Ridiculous Idea of Never Seeing You Again," Rosa Montero, born on January 3, 1951, in Cuatro Caminos, the acclaimed Spanish journalist and contemporary fiction author, takes us on a profound journey that intertwines the life of Marie Curie, was born on November 7, 1867, in Warsaw, Congress Kingdom of Poland, Russian Empire and passed away on July 4, 1934, near Sallanches, France. By using the biography of the Nobel Prize, Marie Curie as a narrative thread, Montero skillfully invites us to reflect on the challenges of our time. Montero's book is challenging to categorize and opens with a striking sentence: "As I have not had children, the most important thing that has happened in my life is my death." This diary-like narrative explores the life and contributions of Marie Curie, a Polish chemist and physicist who later became a French citizen. Thanks to Curie and her husband, Pierre, we can now combat cancer, but “Curie's explanations about the dangers of radiation are unparalleled. It is crucial to remember that exposure to radium radiation can destroy malignant tissue, making it an effective treatment for halting the growth of cancerous tumors. Radium is also used as a source of neutrons in scientific experiments and in the production of radon for cancer treatment and other medical procedures. Polonium, on the other hand, is utilized in devices designed for static charge removal, special brushes used to eliminate dust that has accumulated on photographic film, and as heat sources for artificial satellites or space probes. Unfortunately, not all applications of these elements are positive, as their high radioactivity also poses a significant potential for harm. For example, when polonium is mixed with beryllium (a common element used for alloy hardening), it can cause a rapid implosion that triggers a chain reaction at the atomic level with other elements. As you may have guessed, this makes it an essential component of the atomic bomb.
Most read…
Judge Orders Biden Officials to Limit Contact With Social-Media Companies
Ruling says Biden administration policing of social media likely violated First Amendment
WSJ By Jacob Gershman, July 4, 2023 Wagner rebellion raises doubts about stability of Russia’s nuclear arsenal
The current situation in Russia has generated apprehension and unease among officials in Western countries. There is a legitimate concern that whoever assumes control over Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction could pose a significant threat to global security.
The Washington Post By Robyn Dixon, July 5, 2023European Green Deal: More leaders call for 'a regulatory pause'
In the run-up to the 2024 elections, heads of state from the EU-27 are seeking to take into account the economic and social challenges posed by Russia's attack on Ukraine, including food security and the cost of living.
Le Monde By Virginie Malingre, yesterday (Paris)Saudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong
Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain robust oil cooperation within the OPEC+ alliance. It is comforting to know that the alliance is willing to take any necessary actions to support the market, as Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman mentioned.
Reuters By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Shadia Nasralla, Editing by Germán & co, July 5, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
The case tests the limits on government scrutiny of social-media content on sites like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: MATT CARDYJudge Orders Biden Officials to Limit Contact With Social-Media Companies
Ruling says Biden administration policing of social media likely violated First Amendment
WSJ By Jacob Gershman, July 4, 2023 A federal judge issued a broad preliminary injunction limiting the federal government from communicating with social-media companies about online content, ruling that Biden administration officials’ policing of social-media posts likely violated the First Amendment.
In a 155-page ruling issued Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty of Louisiana barred White House officials and multiple federal agencies from contacting social-media companies with the purpose of suppressing political views and other speech normally protected from government censorship.
The judge’s injunction came in a lawsuit led by the Republican attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana who alleged that the Biden administration fostered a sprawling “federal censorship enterprise” in its effort to stamp out what it viewed as rampant disinformation circulating on social media.
The government, the lawsuit claimed, pressured social-media platforms to scrub away disfavored views about Covid-19 health policies, the origins of the pandemic, the Hunter Biden laptop story, election security and other divisive topics.
A spokesman for the Justice Department declined to comment on the ruling. In a brief previously filed with the court, the department denied the plaintiffs’ allegations and said that the federal government took necessary and responsible actions to deal with a pandemic and foreign attempts at election interference.
The case is among the most potentially consequential First Amendment battles pending in the courts, testing the limits on government scrutiny of social-media content on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and other major platforms.
Never before has a federal judge set such sweeping limits on how the federal government may communicate with online platforms, according to lawyers involved in the case.
Some legal scholars have been skeptical that the government can be held responsible for content-moderation decisions ultimately made by private companies or that courts could intervene without chilling legitimate government speech about controversial matters of public interest.
The Justice Department is likely to appeal the injunction.
The judge’s Independence Day order is likely to intensify conservative criticisms about internet censorship and the debate over the government’s role in encouraging platforms to remove content that it considers to be misinformation, malicious content or harmful to public health.
“[T]he evidence produced thus far depicts an almost dystopian scenario,” wrote Doughty, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, in his ruling. “During the COVID-19 pandemic, a period perhaps best characterized by widespread doubt and uncertainty, the United States Government seems to have assumed a role similar to an Orwellian ‘Ministry of Truth.’”
The judge said the plaintiffs “have presented substantial evidence in support of their claims that they were the victims of a far-reaching and widespread censorship campaign” that he said almost exclusively targeted conservative views.
Missouri v. Biden, as the case is called, is among dozens of so-called censorship-by-proxy lawsuits challenging account suspensions, content removals and other suppression of social-media posts on First Amendment grounds.
The plaintiffs have argued that White House and other government officials bullied social-media companies into suppressing views disliked by the administration—including criticism of mask mandates and objections to Covid-19 vaccination for children—with veiled threats of new regulatory liabilities and antitrust enforcement.
Other courts have rejected similar claims, including in a lawsuit Trump brought against Twitter when it banned him after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, reinstated Trump, but after a federal court threw out Trump’s lawsuit due to in part an absence of evidence that Twitter had banned him at the government’s behest.
Courts have thrown out other lawsuits by censored medical activists, independent journalists and conservative commentators for failing to show that the social-media companies were doing the government’s bidding.
The Missouri v. Biden lawsuit has cast a wider net than other cases, with the states asserting an interest in protecting the speech rights of their citizens.
Doughty also permitted the plaintiffs at an unusually early stage in the case to gather additional evidence, such as email communications between White House officials and social-media companies, and to depose high-ranking government officials including Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
The judge referred to numerous email exchanges between White House officials and platform executives. In one email to Google employees from April 2021, the White House’s then-director of digital strategy, Rob Flaherty, charged that YouTube was “funneling” people into vaccine hesitancy. “This is a concern that is shared at the highest (and I mean highest) levels of the WH,” he wrote.
The Missouri v. Biden lawsuit alleges the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the State Department’s Global Engagement Center and the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency colluded with social-media platforms “in hundreds of meetings about misinformation” and systematically flagged “huge quantities of First Amendment-protected speech to platforms for censorship.”
Other plaintiffs in the suit include epidemiologists who are authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, an October 2020 open letter critical of Covid-19 government lockdown policies and school closures. They allege that Fauci helped lead a campaign to discredit the declaration and suppress it on social media.
“What a way to celebrate Independence Day,” Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey tweeted in response to Tuesday’s ruling. In an earlier interview, Bailey described the case as the “most important First Amendment lawsuit in a generation.”
The Justice Department, representing the government defendants, filed a brief nearly 300 pages long denying the allegations, including that any of the content moderation decisions at issue were the result of government pressure.
“The record in this case shows that the Federal Government promoted necessary and responsible actions to protect public health, safety, and security when confronted by a deadly pandemic and hostile foreign assaults on critical election infrastructure,” the department said.
The department also warned that the proposed injunction sought by the plaintiffs “would significantly hinder the Federal Government’s ability to combat foreign malign influence campaigns, prosecute crimes, protect the national security, and provide accurate information to the public on matters of grave public concern such as healthcare and election integrity.”
Doughty wrote that his order isn’t a blanket ban on government communication with social media. He said agencies could inform platforms about postings involving criminal activity, national security and public-safety threats or content intending to mislead voters about voting requirements and procedures.
Nothing in his order, he wrote, prevents federal agencies from ”exercising permissible public government speech promoting government policies or views on matters of public concern.”
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A view of the Kremlin in Moscow. (Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) / Editing by Germán & CoWagner rebellion raises doubts about stability of Russia’s nuclear arsenal
The current situation in Russia has generated apprehension and unease among officials in Western countries. There is a legitimate concern that whoever assumes control over Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction could pose a significant threat to global security.
The Washington Post By Robyn Dixon, July 5, 2023The rebellion in Russia by Wagner mercenaries confronted Western officials with one of their gravest fears: the possibility of political chaos and instability in the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.
Anxiety over who might gain control of Russia’s weapons of mass destruction has long tempered Western hopes that President Vladimir Putin might be ousted from power. But months of nuclear posturing by Putin and other senior Russian officials, and a new debate among Moscow analysts on using a nuclear weapon on a NATO country, have raised doubts about whether Putin really provides the stability necessary to avoid an atomic Armageddon — or if he is the risk they should fear most.
Russian officials have played on the West’s nuclear fears throughout the war in an effort to undermine Western support for Ukraine and to slow weapons deliveries, a tactic that seems to have worked.
And in recent weeks the drumbeat has intensified, with some well-connected Russian strategic analysts and think tank experts openly proclaiming the “necessity” for Moscow to carry out a preemptive tactical nuclear strike on a NATO country, like Poland — to avoid defeat in the war on Ukraine and to revive Western terror of Russia’s nuclear might.
Since the Wagner rebellion, Sergei Karaganov, a former Kremlin adviser and influential Russian political scientist, has doubled down on calls for Moscow to do so. In an earlier article last month headlined, “A Difficult but Necessary Decision,” Karaganov argued the risk of a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia, and nuclear Armageddon, “can be reduced to an absolute minimum.”
No sane American president would put the United States at risk by “sacrificing conditional Boston for conditional Poznań,” he wrote, referring to a city in Poland.
Hawkish Moscow-based military analyst, Dmitry Trenin, supported Karaganov, arguing that “an unambiguous — and no longer verbal — signal should be sent” to Washington.
“The possibility of using nuclear weapons in the current conflict should not be hidden,” he wrote in an essay, calling for the revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which limits the use of nuclear weapons to cases where Russia’s existence is threatened. Both essays were published by influential Russian foreign policy think tank, the Foreign Policy Research Foundation.
Trenin lamented that Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus — which Putin says will be completed by year end — had caused no visible alarm in Western capitals.
Karaganov’s essays have a messianic tone that reflect Putin’s zealous view of his place in history, solving what Moscow likes to call “the Ukraine problem,” a reference to an independent, democratic nation choosing a pro-Europe path on Russian borders.
He argues nuclear weapons were invented by God to revive mankind’s fear of Armageddon, insisting, “That fear needs to be revived.” He sees Russia as “chosen by history” to destroy the “Western yoke,” and “finally free the world.”
Many Russian nuclear arms experts gasped in horror at the calls from Karaganov and Trenin. One, Ivan Timofeev, called it “extremely dangerous.”
Three experts from the Center for International Security writing in Kommersant newspaper, Alexei Arbatov, Konstantin Bogdanov and Dmitry Stefanovich, called the idea that Washington would not strike back, “highly doubtful and likely erroneous.”
Then came the specter of civil war, with Wagner mercenaries rolling in a convoy toward Moscow in the most serious political chaos since 1993 when President Boris Yeltsin ordered tanks to fire on the country’s parliament to squash a rebellion by lawmakers.
After mutiny, Kremlin looks to unwind holdings tied to Wagner mercenary boss
As the Wagner rebellion unfolded earlier this month, United States officials contacted Moscow to assure Putin that Prigozhin’s rebellion was an internal Russian matter, according to National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. That reassurance highlighted the worry among Western leaders that Putin, sensing a Western plot or fearing defeat, could take radical action.
The rebellion is over, but any drastic new shocks in the war could trigger instability in Russia. A major new defeat in the war could topple Putin, said Anatol Lieven, of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, or it could see him escalate and resort to a tactical nuclear weapon.
If Putin faced the loss of occupied Crimea, “the chances of escalation would be extraordinarily high because he would believe it was necessary to save Crimea, but it would also be necessary to save his regime at that point,” Lieven said.
Analysts predict a major internal crackdown in Russia, to prevent any similar rebellion by any armed rogue group in future.
After seizing a military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, Wagner fighters moved north to the city of Voronezh raising alarm about the Voronezh-45 nuclear weapons storage facility located about 130 miles further east. But even if Wagner had targeted the weapons — and there is no evidence it did — the mercenaries would not have been able to use them, analysts said.
“Can an armed group like Wagner take control of some of Russia's nuclear weapons and somehow use or detonate them? The short answer is no, it's virtually impossible,” tweeted Pavel Podvig, nuclear arms expert at the U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research, after a blue-checked Twitter conspiracy theorist spread disinformation to more than 250,000 Twitter followers that Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin had “got the nukes.”
At last month’s St. Petersburg economic forum, Putin said nuclear weapons would protect Russian security “in the broadest sense of the word,” but that there was “no need” to use them at present.
Pressed at the plenary session on whether he would be willing to use them, Putin joked, “What should I say? Scare the whole world? Why do we need to scare the whole world?”
But since the invasion of Ukraine Putin and top officials including deputy head of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have led the nuclear fearmongering. Announcing the invasion on day one, Putin warned that any country that interfered in the war would face consequences “such as you have never seen in your entire history,” in an unambiguous hint about nuclear weapons.
Ukraine says Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby.
Days later, he put Russian nuclear weapons into “special combat readiness.” Since then Russia has suspended participation in the New START accord and announced that nuclear weapons would be stored in Belarus. In September, Putin explicitly warned that Russia would use nuclear weapons if its territory was threatened, as he claimed to annex four Ukrainian regions.
In the latest nuclear warning, Medvedev said a nuclear apocalypse was “not just possible but quite probable” in an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Sunday, because “there is no taboo” on using nuclear weapons. Medvedev claimed that the West had to accept the annihilation of Ukraine’s “Nazi” government — “if it does not want an apocalyptic end” to civilization.
Some analysts saw the debate on nuking a NATO country as an orchestrated bluff to escalate Western nuclear fears, but others saw it merely as hard-liners venting about Russia’s failings in the war.
“It’s fair to say that people in that community feel frustration about the situation, and my take is that they are thinking out loud,” Podvig said in an interview. He said that Russian officials had been “pretty consistent, that nuclear weapons could only be used to protect Russia from some kind of existential threat.”
“The weapons are there, and there are scenarios in which they can be used. However, we are, at least at this point, two steps away from this point.” If Russia began to seriously consider using nuclear weapons in Ukraine or Poland, there would first be a much sharper switch in Kremlin rhetoric, he said.
Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience
But a worrying question is what would comprise an “existential threat” to Russia in Putin’s mind, given his profound conviction that he is the state’s sole guardian and protector.
In January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of the Doomsday Clock forward by 10 seconds to 90 seconds to midnight, largely “because of the mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine,” it said.
Artur Kacprzyk, analyst on nuclear arms at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said the Moscow debate on striking Poland was a form of nuclear coercion designed to intimidate NATO, and it caused “concern but definitely not panic.”
“The level of this debate in Russia, and its intensity, about potential nuclear use is higher than before,” he said. “If they believe that the West will fold, that will encourage them to just increase and increase these threats.”
Days before the Wagner rebellion, President Biden said the risk of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon against Europe was “real,” Reuters reported.
But Kirby said last week that the United States had seen “no indication that Mr. Putin is interested in moving in that direction and nor have we seen anything that would cause us to change our own deterrent posture.”
Pro-Kremlin analysts like to argue that a nuclear power “cannot lose” the war, despite a history of bogged down military misadventures by Moscow and Washington.
According to Podvig, a source of frustration for Russia was that possessing nuclear weapons was simply not a decisive factor to win the war.
“It’s not that someone does not respect Russia’s nuclear weapons,” Podvig said. “It’s that you cannot really think of a way of using them to gain any advantage. At this point, I guess the only thing that Russia gets out of its nuclear weapons is that there is no direct involvement of NATO or the United States in this war.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Ursula von der Leyen, formerly a minister under Angela Merkel and currently the president of the European Commission/ Editing by Germán & CoEuropean Green Deal: More leaders call for 'a regulatory pause'
In the run-up to the 2024 elections, heads of state from the EU-27 are seeking to take into account the economic and social challenges posed by Russia's attack on Ukraine, including food security and the cost of living.
Le Monde By Virginie Malingre, yesterday (Paris)For Ursula von der Leyen, the issue is complex. Formerly a minister under Angela Merkel and currently the president of the European Commission, she has made the Green Deal one of the priorities of her mandate. But she is currently facing pushback from the conservatives in her own group, the European People's Party (EPP), who are increasingly open in questioning the policy's merits. With European elections scheduled for June 2024, von der Leyen, who would need the support of her party to run for a second term, is walking on eggshells.
On Thursday, June 29, Europe's right-wing heads of state and government – Nikos Christodoulides (Cyprus), Krisjanis Karins (Latvia), Ulf Kristersson (Sweden), Kyriakos Mitsotakis (Greece), Karl Nehammer (Austria), Petteri Orpo (Finland), Andrej Plenkovic (Croatia) and Leo Varadkar (Ireland) – who met in Brussels before heading to a European Council meeting, all approved an EPP declaration calling for "a regulatory pause" at a European level, particularly on the Green Deal. The document calls on institutions to "take into account the new economic and social realities following Russia's attack" on Ukraine.
Von der Leyen, who attended the meeting as usual, did not take part in the debate. She chose to remain silent. A number of leaders, including Plenkovic, Varadkar and Karins, nevertheless stressed that, in attacking the Green Deal, they must be careful not to "weaken" the Commission president, who could enable the EPP to retain the head executive position of the EU after the European elections in June 2024.
Indeed, when it comes to environmental issues, the EPP has always avoided any direct attacks on von der Leyen, despite the fact that she has made the Green Deal a cornerstone of her efforts in Europe. Instead, the party's preferred target is Frans Timmermans, the Commission vice-president responsible for the Green Deal, who comes from the ranks of the Social Democrats. The EPP never misses an opportunity to point out that Timmermans' cabinet director is a former Greenpeace member.
Radical transformation of the EPP
Von der Leyen's entourage stressed that, as president of the Commission, she is obligated to attend EPP pre-summit meetings, but that she does not take any part in drafting the conclusions. "It's a bit hypocritical," said an EPP executive. When questioned on the subject by Le Monde, von der Leyen replied that she "of course listens to the voices of those who have to implement legislation in their companies or on their farms," adding: "My position is well known: environmental regulation and competitiveness or agriculture can go hand in hand."
In recent months, the EPP has undergone a radical transformation in the European Parliament, where the party is the leading political force. After supporting some 30 articles in von der Leyen's Green Deal – notably those designed to move the European Union towards climate neutrality by 2050 – the group is now waging a merciless war, alongside the far right, against two emblematic environmental bills: those on nature restoration and reducing pesticide use.
Manfred Weber, president of the EPP and the group's leader in the European Parliament, has argued that these bills threaten agricultural production, jeopardize food security and drive up the cost of living. Between the war in Ukraine and inflation, Weber claims that a break is urgently needed. As a member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), Weber adds that Germany's recession is not helping matters. The fact that the CDU-CSU is now in opposition to Berlin probably doesn't help either.
For the time being, the future of the nature restoration bill is in jeopardy, given that three parliamentary committees – environment, agriculture and fisheries – have rejected it. The fate of the bill will be sealed at the Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg in July (or September).
Liberal leaders also express doubts
Against this backdrop, Spanish Socialist MEP César Luena questioned the president of the European Commission on June 27, asking her to take a clear stance on the issue: "[Her] political group is withdrawing from the Green Deal. She hasn't said anything yet. Ursula von der Leyen, you must react," he declared. For now, von der Leyen has not responded. Timmermans nevertheless saw fit to do so "in her name and under her supervision," on June 28, by once again lending his support to the nature restoration bill.
Until recently, only the heads of state and government of certain Eastern European countries, with their high-carbon economies, had expressed reticence. More recently, liberal leaders have also voiced their doubts.
French President Emmanuel Macron also called for a "regulatory pause" after 2024, exasperating some of his party members. Alexander De Croo, the Belgian prime minister, followed suit: "What must be avoided (...) is overloading the boat, by adding new standards to the CO2 emission targets," particularly "in the field of biodiversity. I ask that we press the pause button, except for CO2."
In the Netherlands, Mark Rutte has not yet been quite as outspoken. But the success of the "Farmers' Party," an anti-Green Deal movement which, in March, made a real breakthrough in the regional elections, is leading him to advocate a degree of caution. With one year to go to the European elections, the subject is still a hot topic of political debate.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud arrives for an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo/ Editing by Germán & CoSaudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong
Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain robust oil cooperation within the OPEC+ alliance. It is comforting to know that the alliance is willing to take any necessary actions to support the market, as Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman mentioned.
Reuters By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Shadia Nasralla, Editing by Germán & co, July 5, 2023LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Russia-Saudi oil cooperation is still going strong as part of the OPEC+ alliance, which will do "whatever necessary" to support the market, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a conference on Wednesday.
OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia which pumps around 40% of the world's crude, has been cutting oil output since November in the face of flagging prices.
Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's biggest oil exporters, deepened oil supply cuts on Monday in an effort to send prices higher.
Yet the move only briefly lifted the market. On Wednesday, benchmark Brent futures were down more than 1% at $75.30 per barrel, lower than the $80-$100 per barrel than most OPEC nations need to balance their budgets.
OPEC says it does not have a price target and is seeking to have a balanced oil market to meet the interests of both consumers and producers.
The United States, the biggest oil producer outside OPEC+, has repeatedly called on the group to boost production to help the global economy and has criticised Saudi cooperation with Russia after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
But Riyadh has repeatedly rebuffed U.S. calls and Prince Abdulaziz said on Wednesday that new joint oil output cuts agreed by Russia and Saudi Arabia this week have again proven sceptics wrong.
"Part of what we have done (on Monday) with the help of our colleagues from Russia was also to mitigate the cynical side of the spectators on what is going on between Saudi and Russia on that specific matter," Prince Abdulaziz said.
"It is quite telling seeing us on Monday coming out with not only our (oil cut) extension... but also with validation from the Russian side," he told a meeting of oil industry CEOs with ministers from OPEC and allies, known as the OPEC International Seminar.
OPEC has withheld media access to reporters from Reuters, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal to cover the event, which was partly broadcast online.
After the end of the broadcast, Prince Abdulaziz told the seminar that OPEC+ would do "whatever necessary" to support the market, according to a source who attended the meeting.
ENOUGH FOR NOW
Additional oil cuts should be enough to help balance the oil market, United Arab Emirates' energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told reporters on Wednesday.
"This (the latest addition output cuts) is enough to assess the market and look at the market balance," Mazrouei told reporters.
He said the UAE would not be contributing to fresh cuts as it was already producing well below its capacity.
"There’s a bigger thing… I’m seeing a lack of investments in many countries. We will have to invite maybe newcomers to come and join the group. The more countries we have... the easier the job... to ensure that the world has enough oil in the future," Mazrouei said.
"Imagine if we had 60% of the producers or 80% of the producers... We will definitely do a better job."
News round-up, July 4, 2023
The news of the day…
According to Spiegel, the German foreign intelligence agency (BND) is again under heavy “hailstorms…
The German foreign intelligence agency, the BND, has been under immense criticism lately due to its delayed awareness of the Wagner Group's coup attempt in Russia. There have been discussions about the removal of the current director, Bruno Kahl, as a result.
The German Chancellor's proposal to examine the issue has put the agency's performance under a "microscope", which has not occurred in a considerable time.
The BND's failures have been mounting, with the inability to anticipate the Taliban's assumption of power in Afghanistan, ignoring warnings about Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine, and the recent espionage case of Carsten L. Despite the warning signs, Bruno Kahl decided to travel to Kyiv on the eve of the invasion, only to be confronted with the harsh reality of war upon awakening.
Most read…
China Restricts Exports of Two Minerals Used in High-Performance Chips
Industry executives see export ban on gallium and germanium as retaliation over chip curbs by U.S. and others
WSJ By James T. Areddy, and Sha Hua, July 4, 2023 Venezuela Bans a Top Opposition Figure From Public Office
María Corina Machado, a longtime adversary of President Nicolás Maduro, was leading a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls
WSJ By Juan Forero, and Kejal Vyas, June 30, 2023 Will “El Niño” on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?
Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather
The Guardian by Jonathan Watts, Julian Amani, Paul Scruton and Lucy Swan, Mon 3 Jul 2023 The politics of the French riots
This is largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction.
POLITICO EU BY JOHN LICHFIELD, JULY 3, 2023Another Stumble German Intelligence Criticized for Slow Reaction To Russian Coup Attempt
Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, is under fire for learning too late about the recent Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia. It's possible the agency's head could soon be out as a result of the late response, which many see as one too many.
Spiegel By Matthias Gebauer, Martin Knobbe, Marina Kormbaki, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 03.07.2023Source: PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESSUkraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.
〰️
Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown. 〰️
The news of the day…
According to Spiegel, the German foreign intelligence agency (BND) is again under heavy “hailstorms…
The German foreign intelligence agency, the BND, has been under immense criticism lately due to its delayed awareness of the Wagner Group's coup attempt in Russia. There have been discussions about the removal of the current director, Bruno Kahl, as a result.
The German Chancellor's proposal to examine the issue has put the agency's performance under a "microscope", which has not occurred in a considerable time.
The BND's failures have been mounting, with the inability to anticipate the Taliban's assumption of power in Afghanistan, ignoring warnings about Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine, and the recent espionage case of Carsten L. Despite the warning signs, Bruno Kahl decided to travel to Kyiv on the eve of the invasion, only to be confronted with the harsh reality of war upon awakening.
Most read…
China Restricts Exports of Two Minerals Used in High-Performance Chips
Industry executives see export ban on gallium and germanium as retaliation over chip curbs by U.S. and others
WSJ By James T. Areddy, and Sha Hua, July 4, 2023 Venezuela Bans a Top Opposition Figure From Public Office
María Corina Machado, a longtime adversary of President Nicolás Maduro, was leading a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls
WSJ By Juan Forero, and Kejal Vyas, June 30, 2023 Will “El Niño” on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?
Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather
The Guardian by Jonathan Watts, Julian Amani, Paul Scruton and Lucy Swan, Mon 3 Jul 2023 The politics of the French riots
This is largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction.
POLITICO EU BY JOHN LICHFIELD, JULY 3, 2023Another Stumble German Intelligence Criticized for Slow Reaction To Russian Coup Attempt
Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, is under fire for learning too late about the recent Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia. It's possible the agency's head could soon be out as a result of the late response, which many see as one too many.
Spiegel By Matthias Gebauer, Martin Knobbe, Marina Kormbaki, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 03.07.2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Chinese exporters of products and materials containing gallium and germanium will need to apply for special licenses as of August. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESSChina Restricts Exports of Two Minerals Used in High-Performance Chips
Industry executives see export ban on gallium and germanium as retaliation over chip curbs by U.S. and others
WSJ By James T. Areddy, and Sha Hua, July 4, 2023 A solar farm in New Mexico. The U.S. has taken steps to reduce China’s dominance over the U.S. solar market. PHOTO: SUSAN MONTOYA BRYAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS
SINGAPORE—China set export restrictions on two minerals the U.S. says are critical to the production of semiconductors, missile systems and solar cells, a show of force ahead of economic talks between two rivals that increasingly set trade rules to achieve technological dominance.
The minerals—gallium and germanium—and more than three dozen related metals and other materials will be subject to unspecified export controls starting Aug. 1, Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday. Its statement referred to safeguarding national security and interests and said some future export applications would require review by the government’s top body, the State Council.
The China-U.S. rivalry increasingly features export restrictions tailored to slow the high-technology industries of the other nation. Trading complaints about such controls, which both sides say are designed to protect national security, have featured in a return to high-level talks between the two governments. More focus on the issue is likely when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits Beijing later this week and if Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo makes an expected trip in the coming months.
Tech Companies Depend on China for Rare Earths. Can That Change?
Neodymium is critical to making the wheels of a Tesla spin or creating sound in Apple’s AirPods, and China dominates the mining and processing of this rare-earth element. So the U.S. and its allies are building their own supply chain. Photo illustration: Clément Bürge/WSJ
“The U.S. Commerce Department had no immediate comment.
The U.S. in October halted exports to China of equipment used to produce more technically advanced semiconductors and has leaned on allies like South Korea and the Netherlands to do the same. Beijing warned its companies to consider the national-security implications of exports to the U.S. It banned the use of products made by Micron, the U.S.’s biggest memory-chip maker, in its critical information-infrastructure firms, while warning American allies to reject what it terms Cold War-type protectionism peddled by Washington.
Complexities bind the U.S. and China in production of wares such as semiconductors in ways that make it difficult for either side to act too rashly, a kind of technology-sector equivalent of mutually assured destruction. The Biden administration is trying to entice producers such as Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to expand in the U.S. but getting them to turn their back on China appears unlikely.
The new restrictions on gallium and germanium affect specialty metals produced and refined primarily in China, giving it leverage in some cutting-edge sectors. Neither gallium or germanium is traded in large quantities. Both nevertheless have uses important to particular industries, especially production of semiconductors that are often designed in and for use in the U.S. even if made in Taiwan and South Korea.
“This measure will have an immediate ripple effect on the semiconductor industry, especially with regards to high-performance chips,” said Alastair Neill, board member of the Critical Mineral Institute who has nearly 30 years of experience with China’s metals industry.
Estimated production of unrefined gallium in 2022
——China: 540,000 ——Rest of the world: 10,000 kilograms.
Note: Other countries that produce unrefined gallium are Russia, Japan, South Korea and Ukraine.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
China has smarted at U.S. efforts to slow the advance of its semiconductor manufacturing, which Washington warns is ultimately aimed at strengthening Beijing’s military. The Biden administration has made it difficult for China to buy lithography machines needed to produce high-performance chips, and last week scored a win when the Dutch government said its equipment makers like ASML would need government permission to ship some products abroad.
Chinese chip makers and suppliers who gathered in Shanghai for a recent industry event were in a grim but defiant mood following a Wall Street Journal report that the Biden administration is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial-intelligence chips to China.
Industry analysts see a pattern of tit-for-tat. “If you don’t send high-end chips to China, China will respond by not sending you the high-performance elements you need for those chips,” said Neill, who added that Beijing usually tries to match U.S. trade measures with a countermeasure of equal proportion.
Both gallium and germanium appear among 50 minerals that the U.S. Geological Survey deems “critical,” meaning they are essential to the economic or national security of the U.S. and have a supply chain vulnerable to disruption.
Gallium, a soft, silvery metal at room temperature, is a key ingredient in a fast-growing class of semiconductors used in phone chargers and electric vehicles, among a growing range of commercial and military applications. About 53% of the U.S.’s gallium was imported from China between 2018 and 2021, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, with imports decreasing substantially in 2019 after the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on Chinese gallium. There is no U.S. production of unrefined gallium.
Gallium arsenide—a compound with arsenic—is widely used for high-performance chips because it is more resistant to heat and moisture as well as more conductive than silicon. At the moment, “no effective substitutes exist for GaAs in these applications,” noted the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey on gallium.
The U.S. military relies on gallium nitride, a related product, for its properties for efficiently transmitting power deployed in the most advanced radars under development. It is also being used in the replacement for the Patriot missile-defense system being made by RTX, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies. Beijing previously had said it would seek to prevent a unit of RTX, which didn’t respond to a question about gallium, from using Chinese products in its military technology.
An arm of Raytheon Technologies is on Beijing’s ‘unreliable entities list,’ which prohibits companies from export and import activities related to China. PHOTO: PASCAL ROSSIGNOL/REUTERS
In 2016, the U.S. blocked the proposed purchase by Chinese investors of a controlling stake in an auto and light-emitting diode components business unit of the Dutch electronics company Philips valued at $2.8 billion over concerns of the dual-use potential for gallium nitride.
Sales of chips using gallium nitride were $2.47 billion last year, according to Precedence Research, but are expected to climb to $19.3 billion by 2030. Chips produced with gallium-arsenide are expected to grow from $1.4 billion last year to $3.4 billion in 2030, according to Research and Markets.
Germanium, a lustrous, grayish-white metal, can make silicon a faster conductor and is often used in making fiber-optic systems and solar cells, including those used in space applications.
To trade experts, China’s new export restrictions on the commodities is a reminder of an earlier export-quota system Beijing imposed for rare earths, another group of metals produced mostly in China that have prized qualities for high-technology manufacturers. The U.S. in 2014 won a case at the World Trade Organization that argued China’s export limits on rare earths, as well as tungsten and molybdenum, were inconsistent with international trade rules.
Later, in 2019, Chinese leader Xi Jinping made a visit to one of the country’s key rare-earth production zones. To analysts, the visit appeared to be a warning Beijing could disrupt trade in the minerals, days after the Trump administration made it illegal to supply some U.S. technology to Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei Technologies.
Export controls allow Beijing to target individual companies as well as broader sectors of particular industries and make decisions based on geopolitical considerations, said Paul Triolo, senior vice president for China and technology-policy lead at the Washington-based advisory firm Albright Stonebridge Group.
Chinese exporters of products and materials containing gallium and germanium will need to apply for special licenses as of August. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS
China has signaled to the U.S. that it is interested in establishing a new bilateral dialogue on export controls, and the latest move could provide Beijing with more leverage in coming discussions with Washington, he said.
The controls announced Monday follow a pattern of quieter restrictions on American access to other commodities produced in China, such as materials known as super-abrasives that also are used in high-technology industries, according to Nazak Nikakhtar, a trade lawyer who formerly held roles related to national security and commodity supply chains at the Commerce Department and is now a partner at Washington law firm Wiley Rein LLP. “It’s really arm-flexing, to remind the U.S. how strong they are and to remind us how much control they have over our supply chains,” she said.
While Nikakhtar said she doesn’t think the gallium and germanium restrictions are designed to be a bargaining chip for the coming talks with American officials, she said they should seize the opportunity to remind their Chinese counterparts that Washington can close loopholes on its current export restrictions and that it has the power to apply economic sanctions.
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Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU
María Corina Machado, pictured in Caracas last week among supporters, is a conservative politician and activist. PHOTO: GABY ORAA/BLOOMBERG NEWS / Editing by Germán & CoVenezuela Bans a Top Opposition Figure From Public Office
María Corina Machado, a longtime adversary of President Nicolás Maduro, was leading a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls
WSJ By Juan Forero, and Kejal Vyas, June 30, 2023 María Corina Machado, pictured in Caracas last week among supporters, is a conservative politician and activist. PHOTO: GABY ORAA/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s regime on Friday barred opposition figure María Corina Machado, a conservative who had been drawing energetic crowds on the campaign trail, from running in presidential elections expected next year.
“I’m not sorry nor surprised nor worried,” Machado, a 55-year-old politician and activist, said via text message to The Wall Street Journal shortly after the ruling. “We knew that they were going to do it. It is a big mistake on their part.”
The decision by the Comptroller’s Office dims already faint prospects for free and fair elections in 2024. Biden administration officials have repeatedly said that the Maduro government must organize democratic elections for Washington to lift sanctions against regime officials and the country’s lifeblood oil industry.
Maduro’s government has barred other politicians who had been popular in polls from campaigning and holding office, most notably Leopoldo López and Henrique Capriles, a two-time presidential candidate. The regime has often made vague assertions of irregularities or corruption for prohibiting politicians from running.
Popular opposition politican Leopoldo López was banned from running for presidcent. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES
“We condemn the prohibition of @MariaCorinaYa,” Juanita Goebertus, director of the Americas Division of Human Rights Watch, the New York-based group, said on her Twitter account. “This decision violates her political rights and those of the Venezuelan people. The international community, especially those governments with access to Maduro, should request that this very serious decision be reversed.
In prohibiting Machado from holding office for 15 years, the Comptroller’s Office cited alleged corruption and her support for a U.S.-backed Venezuelan opposition movement that has used economic sanctions to dislodge Maduro. Machado, who is well-known among politicians in Washington and other capitals, has been open about supporting efforts to unseat Maduro.
Machado’s actions are an “affront to public ethics, administrative morality, the state of law, peace and sovereignty,” the Comptroller’s office said in a five-page letter dated June 27 and made public by a pro-regime lawmaker. The letter accuses Machado of working with the opposition to cut off the Maduro administration’s access to foreign bank accounts and overseas assets, including U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum Corp., and gold bullion at the Bank of England, leaving them vulnerable to creditors that are seeking to recoup billions of dollars in debts from Caracas.
In recent polls, Machado, who comes from a wealthy family of industrialists, has led a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls ahead of October primaries the opposition had scheduled to pick a single presidential candidate. The Caracas consulting firm Poder y Estrategia said a poll done in early June showed that Machado had the support of 57% of respondents who planned to cast a ballot in the primaries.
María Corina Machado signed an application to be eligible to run for president last week in Caracas. PHOTO: CARLOS BECERRA/GETTY IMAGES
Machado will still be able to participate in the primaries because the opposition is organizing them independently of the regime-controlled National Electoral Council. But Friday’s ban will prohibit Machado from facing off against the regime’s eventual candidate, who is widely expected to be Maduro. A date for the presidential election has yet to be set.
The government’s prohibition against running underscores its determination to avoid an opening for an opposition politician to win in an election, said Eduardo Battistini, president of Venezuela’s First Justice Party in exile.
“Today, by barring Maria Corina Machado as they have dozens of opponents, they are removing those who propose change in Venezuela,” he said.
Machado has been barred by the Maduro regime from leaving the country since 2015, when the Comptroller first banned her from political office for 12 months. Friday’s announcement increased that ban to 15 years.
In recent weeks, she had been campaigning around the country, including in the cattle-growing heartland of Venezuela, long a Socialist Party stronghold. She pledged to dismantle a state-led economic model that has driven the oil-rich nation into financial ruin. And unlike other opposition politicians, Machado also said she wanted to privatize state energy giant Petróleos de Venezuela SA.
Pollsters and political analysts say that Venezuela’s opposition movement has faced widespread voter apathy since its leadership voted in December to remove Juan Guaidó as its leader. The U.S. and its allies had since 2019 recognized him as Venezuela’s legitimate president because they had deemed the 2018 election that Maduro had won as fraudulent.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
People walk through a dust storm in Prayagraj, India. Countries across the world are experiencing record temperatures. Photograph: Sanjay Kanojia/AFP/ Editing by Germán & CoWill “El Niño” on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?
Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather
The Guardian by Jonathan Watts, Julian Amani, Paul Scruton and Lucy Swan, Mon 3 Jul 2023 “Very unusual”, “worrying”, “terrifying”, and “bonkers”; the reactions of veteran scientists to the sharp increase in north Atlantic surface temperatures over the past three months raises the question of whether the world’s climate has entered a more erratic and dangerous phase with the onset of an El Niño event on top of human-made global heating.
Since April, the warming appears to have entered a new trajectory. Meanwhile the area of global sea ice has dropped by more than 1 million sq km below the previous low.
“If a few decades ago, some people might have thought climate change was a relatively slow-moving phenomenon, we are now witnessing our climate changing at a terrifying rate,” said Prof Peter Stott, who leads the UK Met Office’s climate monitoring and attribution team. “As the El Niño builds through the rest of this year, adding an extra oomph to the damaging effects of human-induced global heating, many millions of people across the planet and many diverse ecosystems are going to face extraordinary challenges and unfortunately suffer great damage.”
The El Niño climate pattern emerges when normal easterly winds weaken and warm water spreads across the whole Pacific.
The immediate impact is on marine life which is unaccustomed to waters that have warmed by several degrees in some areas. More worrying still, the extra energy in the ocean, which is the world’s biggest heat absorber, may bring fiercer-than-usual storms, more destructive rain dumps and longer, hotter heatwaves.
When the extremes in the north Atlantic started to be registered in April, the hope was that this would prove a temporary blip. In May, however, the average temperature in the region was the highest since records began in 1850. On 12 June, the climatologist Brian McNoldy stirred up a Twitter storm by calculating that, based on past data, there was a one in 256,0000 chance of this happening.
This anomaly prompted some commentators to wonder if something unforeseen – a black swan event – was taking place in the climate system. Calmer heads explained that it was more likely the result of El Niño and other natural factors being amplified by the greenhouse gas emissions from cars, factories and forest clearance.
Michael Mann, the presidential distinguished professor at the University of Pennsylvania, warned against “cherry picking” one set of data from one region over a relatively short period of time. It was more important, he said, to focus on the bigger picture: that burning fossil fuels was leading to more powerful and destructive hurricanes as well as providing the energy in the atmosphere to fuel extreme weather events, such as droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and floods. “We need to step back and look at the big picture. And it is alarming. The truth,” Mann said, “is bad enough.”
Katharine Hayhoe, the chief scientist with the Nature Conservancy and distinguished professor at Texas Tech University, said the north Atlantic temperature anomaly was the result of long-term loading of the climate system by 380 zeta joules of extra heat from human emissions of heat-trapping gases. “Nearly 90% of it has been going into the ocean; and it’s that gradual but inexorable increase in ocean heat content over time scales of decades rather than years that most worries climate scientists,” she said.
Around Ireland and the UK, coastal waters have been several degrees warmer than average for the time of year. Storms are now forming in the Atlantic earlier than normal, almost certainly as a result of the extra energy that is building up in the surface layer of the ocean. For the first time in June, there have been two simultaneous named tropical storms in the Atlantic, Bret and Cindy.
However, rather than seeing the north Atlantic spike as a one-off event, Richard Betts, the head of the climate impacts division at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter said: “We can expect this kind of event to happen more often – which of course is a major cause for concern. For me, these graphs [of Atlantic surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice] are like yet another hammer blow driving home the urgency of the climate situation we are now in.”
While human emissions and El Niño are likely to be the two main drivers of the north Atlantic spike, Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with the Breakthrough Institute, said more time was needed to disentangle other possible contributing factors, such as this year’s unusual dearth in Saharan dust levels, the large amount of stratospheric water vapour, the slowing of ocean circulation and the increasing frequency of El Niño events.
More broadly, Hausfather said, the trends were in line with climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that showed warming would accelerate in coming decades unless emissions were reduced. “I’m reluctant to say that it’s worse than we expected, because what we expect in a world where we don’t reduce emissions is bad enough.”
How much worse things get depends on the intensity and duration of this El Niño. Carlos Nobre, who is one of Brazil’s top climate scientists, said there was a 60% chance that this year’s El Niño would be a strong one. This would be “very very worrying” for the Amazon rainforest, which sustained some of its worst degradation during 2015-16, when an El Niño event caused the dry season to become longer and left the vegetation more vulnerable to fire.
Elsewhere in the world, the latest El Niño is already causing misery. In Mexico, several cities have recently broken the record for their hottest days ever, including Chihuahua, Nuevo Laredo and Monclova. Many cities in Texas are sweltering in their worst-ever heatwaves. The same is true in China, where more than 20 cities, including Shandong, Tianjin and Huairou have registered new peaks. In Europe, the Austrian town of Oberndorf sweltered in a freakishly hot midnight temperature of 36.1C, one of the continent’s highest-ever nighttime temperatures. In the Middle East, people are used to heat but they can normally expect some respite at high altitudes. That was not the case in Iran last week, when the temperature in Saravan hit 45C – one of the hottest days ever recorded at an elevation of more than 1,000m.
Many things are still uncertain. Scientists will not know for a couple of months how severe El Niño will be. Its wind-sheering effect could inhibit storm formation and help to balance out the pressure of the sea-level temperature. The north Atlantic heat spike is already showing signs that it may fade.
But there is no doubt among scientists that things will continue to get worse as long as greenhouse gases continue to rise and natural climate stabilisers, such as the Amazon, continue to be cut down.
Hayhoe said the trends made her feel “even more concerned and even more motivated to ensure I’m doing everything I can to help people understand the profound risks climate change poses to them and how each of us can be a powerful advocate for climate action”.
“It makes me feel sad and anxious,” said Stott. “Sad for the level of environmental destruction going on around the world, including the continuing destruction of the Amazon rainforest. And anxious for how people are going to cope if this carries on much longer, not just in far-away places that are already very hot and dry, but here in the UK where fires, flash floods and droughts are getting more and more frequent and intense. It isn’t a secure and sustaining future to look forward to. I still hope a turning point can be reached such that greenhouse gas emissions do start to reduce rapidly. And I know that this can be done without devastating our quality of life, quite the opposite in fact.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
A French firefighter looks at a burning car in Floirac on the outskirts of Bordeaux, south-western France | Philippe Lopez/AFP/ Editing by Germán & CoThe politics of the French riots
This is largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction.
POLITICO EU BY JOHN LICHFIELD, JULY 3, 2023John Lichfield is a former foreign editor of the Independent and was the newspaper’s Paris correspondent for 20 years.
Beware of those who offer a simple explanation of the riots that have exploded in multi-racial suburbs across France.
These are not, for the most part, political riots — although they are influenced by, and will dangerously inflame, the poisonously divided politics of France.
They are not religious riots. Many of the very young rioters may have a sense of besieged Muslim identity, but they are driven by anger rather than their religion. This is an insurrection, not an intifada.
They are not, properly speaking, truly race riots. The great majority of the many millions of hard-working residents of the racially mixed suburbs which surround French cities are not involved.
Rather, they are the main victims of the destruction of cars, buses, trams, schools, libraries, shops and social centers which began after a 17-year-old boy was shot dead by a traffic cop in Nanterre, just west of Paris, last Tuesday. Parents and other adults are now beginning (belatedly) to try to contain this explosion of violence by young men and boys as young as 12.
The riots are, in a sense, anti-France; but they are also, in part, mimetically French. Grievances go more rapidly to the street in France than in other countries. The worst excesses of the largely white, provincial Yellow Vests movement in 2018-19 came close in blind violence to what we have seen in the last week.
The riots are, for sure, anti-police and anti-authority.
Young men of African and North African origin are much more likely to be stopped by French police than young white men. Seventeen people, mostly of African or North African origin, have been shot dead in the last 18 months after refusing to obey police orders to halt their cars.
The last big explosion in the suburbs, or banlieues, lasted for three weeks in October-November 2005. The new eruption shows some signs of abating after only six days but has already crossed new boundaries.
The 2005 riots were confined to the suburbs themselves. There were attacks on buildings and public transport but little direct confrontation with police. There was almost no looting and pillaging.
On this occasion, police have been attacked with fireworks, Molotov cocktails and shotguns. Shops and shopping centers have been raided. The rioting has pierced the invisible barrier between the inner suburbs and prosperous French cities — although a threatened attack on the Champs Elysées in Paris on Saturday night came to little.
Protestors flee from an exploding firework on a street in Nice, south-eastern France early July 2, 2023 | Valery Hache/AFP via Getty Images
The opportunistic looting appears mostly to be the work of the very young. The more targeted violence — including an attack by a blazing car on the home of a mayor in the south Paris suburbs on Saturday night — is more organized and more obscurely political.
There are convincing reports of the involvement of the ultra-left, mostly white, Black Bloc movement which has tried to establish links with suburban youth in recent years.
But this remains largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of even local forms of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction between disaffected young men in suburbs and towns across France.
The other great and menacing difference with 2005 is the national political background. Eighteen years ago, France was a country dominated by the traditional parties of the center-right and center-left. No prominent politicians encouraged the riots. Few sought to profit from them by suggesting that France faced racial or religious civil war.
Now French politics is split three ways between a radical left, President Emmanuel Macron’s muddled, reformist center and a hard and far right that thinks in explicitly racial terms.
The hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and some of his closest allies have infuriated even other left-wing politicians by refusing to condemn the riots, even the looting. “I don’t call for calm, I call for justice,” Mélenchon said (despite the fact that the policeman who inexplicably shot 17-year-old Nahel last Tuesday has already been charged with homicide).
Meanwhile, a powerful but divided far right is pressing Macron to crack down violently on the rioters (despite the fact that another death, however accidental, could send the riots into an uncontrollable new dimension).
The teenagers on the streets are almost all French — not immigrants. And yet Marine Le Pen’s rival Eric Zemmour — echoed by editorials in the usually more careful center-right Le Figaro — has spoken of a “war” with “foreign enclaves in our midst.”
This inflammatory language is not new. Le Pen, Zemmour and others habitually refuse to recognize that the multi-racial suburbs contain millions of hard-working people — mostly French-born — without whom the prosperous cities could not survive.
They also refuse to recognize the substantial evidence of brutality and racial discrimination by the French police in their admittedly thankless work in the banlieues.
The boy shot dead in Nanterre was not yet born at the time of the 2005 riots. A new generation of young people has grown up in the last 18 years in the suspicion, or belief, that much of the rest of France will never accept them as French.
Many of those French people will look at the events of the last week and their prejudices and fears will be confirmed or deepened.
The riots will abate in time. Over €4 billion has already been spent to improve life in the banlieues in the last two decades. More will doubtless be found to try to reverse the orgy of self-harm of the last week.
It is harder to see what can reverse the spiral of suspicion, misunderstanding, rejection and fear.
The BND's headquarters in Berlin: Germany's foreign intelligence agency is under fire. Foto: Jörg Carstensen/ picture alliance/ Editing by Germán & CoAnother Stumble German Intelligence Criticized for Slow Reaction To Russian Coup Attempt
Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, is under fire for learning too late about the recent Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia. It's possible the agency's head could soon be out as a result of the late response, which many see as one too many.
Spiegel By Matthias Gebauer, Martin Knobbe, Marina Kormbaki, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 03.07.2023The BND's headquarters in Berlin: Germany's foreign intelligence agency is under fire.
Foto: Jörg Carstensen / picture alliance
It was business as usual for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz when he appeared on a national political interview lasts Wednesday and was asked about the country's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, and its response to the internal Russian power struggle. The chancellor spoke quietly, with deliberation, as he always does. Addressing the recent uprising of the Wagner Group mercenaries in Russia, he said that the BND "did not, of course, know beforehand" about events that were about to unfold.
“In light of U.S. media reports that the CIA had learned about Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans well before the escalation, the chancellor said that a closer look needs to be taken at the flow of information among allies. "We will all have to discuss that together," he said.
It sounded as if Scholz was doing his best to protect the BND. But insiders within the intelligence community were startled by the chancellor's words. The statement that the BND "of course" knew nothing could also be interpreted as cynicism – or that the chancellor has reduced his expectations of the agency to zero. It is, of course, part of the job of an intelligence service to catch developments like what happened just over a week ago as early as possible.
The chancellor's suggestion that they would now have to discuss things was also carefully noted. Because it would mean that the BND's performance would be coming under the microscope - a place it hasn't been recently. Ultimately, agency head Bruno Kahl may even find himself in the hot seat.
The impetus for the chancellor's concealed displeasure came from two press reports in recent days. "How the German government was taken by surprise by the Wagner revolt," DER SPIEGEL wrote as events unfolded. "Caught cold again," read the headline in the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.
The German government initially tried to contain the damage. Of course, the BND had already informed the Chancellery about the events on Friday, meaning one day before the advance of Prigozhin's troops on Moscow dominated the news broadcasts.
First Information Obtained in Mid-June
Meanwhile, the BND also tried to water down critique. On Tuesday morning, a high-ranking security official commented on the matter at a symposium in Berlin. The meeting of dozens of representatives from politics and business took place under the Chatham House Rule, according to which discussion participants are not to be identified by name afterward.
The representative speaking on behalf of the agency saw no reason for criticism. Of course, he said, the German government had already been informed several times about the tensions between Wagner chief Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. He said they may not have been aware of the the march on Moscow weeks in advance – "but neither had the Americans."
By then, the U.S. media had long since begun reporting that the intelligence services of the United States may very well have possessed such information. The Washington Post reported that the initial information began to emerge in mid-June. According to other media, selected politicians in the U.S. Congress along with high-ranking military and government officials, known collectively as the Gang of Eight, had already been briefed on Wednesday. On Friday, June 23, the intelligence services briefed the White House.
And Germany's BND? Initial attempts to shield the agency ultimately failed. Last Tuesday, BND headquarters issued an order to thoroughly review its own knowledge and all information provided by the intelligence services of friendly countries in advance. And security policy experts in the parties in Germany's government coalition began discussing whether the president of the BND would be able to keep his job.
Bruno Kahl, 60, became head of the service in 2016 after his predecessor, Gerhard Schindler, was removed from the position unexpectedly. Schindler had actually survived the scandal involving files from the U.S. spy agency NSA before then-Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU ) suddenly sent him into temporary retirement.
Kahl's mission at the time had been to reform the service and keep it scandal-free. Internally, however, the complaint quickly arose that it was becoming increasingly difficult to achieve good results at all because of the many new control mechanisms. International partner services noted with pity that the BND was "quite obviously shackled" by German legislation, as one foreign intelligence chief put it.
Indeed, the Wager Group uprising wasn't the first time recently that the BND had been accused of cluelessness.
By the time the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021, for example, BND analysts had been warning for several years of the country's approaching collapse, and even predicted the Taliban's seizure of power eight months before Kabul fell. But when it actually came to pass, the BND was caught flat-footed. Two years later, that failure is still a focus of a parliamentary investigative committee in the German Bundestag.
BND experts also long dismissed warnings from American and British services about specific plans by Russia to invade Ukraine. It wasn't until a few days before the February 2022 invasion that the concerns of their Anglo-Saxon colleagues slowly began to take hold in Berlin as well. But that didn't stop BND President Kahl from flying to Kyiv on the eve of the Russian invasion – only to wake up to war.
Then, in December, police arrested BND employee Carsten L. on suspicions he served as a Russian spy. It subsequently came to light that the agent had passed security checks despite his apparently right-wing extremist views – and had even been granted responsibility for the security checks of other BND employees.
"The BND's information base on Russia's inner workings was obviously thin."
Ulrich Lechte, member of the Free Democratic Party
Some of these mishaps can be explained, dismissed or glossed over by the BND. Speaking to parliament, Kahl claimed that Putin's invasion had "not really surprised" the BND. And in the case of Carsten L., the BND pointed out that the damage was insignificant given that the double agent had been uncovered at such an early stage. But such explanations can only be used so many times.
"Slowly, we're beginning to be surprised by events too often," says Ralf Stegner of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the chairman of the Afghanistan investigation committee in the German parliament.
"The BND's information on Russia's inner workings was obviously thin," says Ulrich Lechte, foreign policy spokesman for the parliamentary group of the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) in the Bundestag. "There is no other explanation for the fact that no information whatsoever was provided to us in parliament about the imminent uprising of Prigozhin and the Wagner group."
"The situation is definitely frustrating," says Sara Nanni, a member of parliament with the Green Party. She also says it is far too easy to cast blame on the BND. All of this is "also a question of resources," she says.
Should the BND have been aware of Prigozhin's plans at an early stage? "This kind of thing doesn't happen overnight," says a former senior CIA official who had jurisdiction over Russia. "There's troop movement and equipment relocation, communications – you pick up on a lot of things."
In fact, and this is part of the assessment, there are major differences between American intelligence services and the BND. The CIA has many more employees than the German foreign intelligence service, the worldwide interception of signals intelligence is conducted by another agency, the NSA. The BND tries to cover everything in one agency: the monitoring of communications, managing human sources and conducting research into publicly accessible sources of information. Employees also produce extensive analyses. At many other intelligence services, those efforts are considered a waste of time; whereas at the BND, they are considered to be the agency's paramount work.
For some time now, the strengths of German intelligence have been primarily in technical reconnaissance and liaison – the art of asking friendly intelligence agencies to share their insights.
In Washington, London and possibly also in Paris, information was apparently available again this time. Only, it would seem that it didn't find its way to Berlin. When the partners were asked about the criticism, they reportedly said that the U.S. media coverage had been exaggerated. That the information that had been shared with Congress had been more of a general nature. Some experts are even claiming that the narrative of the Americans' detailed knowledge of secret goings-on within Moscow's power apparatus was intended primarily for Russian ears – and that the U.S. media had allowed themselves to be harnessed for that strategy. Or was Berlin deliberately left out?
At any rate, the Germans' skeptical attitude in the run-up to Putin's invasion of Ukraine has not been forgotten on the other side of the English Channel and the Atlantic. As if to prove the point, the U.S. news network CNN reported last week that the U.S. had shared its detailed intelligence only with select allies, including the United Kingdom. CNN reported it had been "extremely detailed" information.
In fact, some information had been made available to the BND. Prior to the coup attempt, for example, Berlin had received several indications that tensions had been building between Wagner boss Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the BND was unable to verify that information independently. It's also unlikely it received the tip that Prigozhin would call for a march on Moscow.
The service interpreted satellite images provided by the United States, according to which Wagner's troops were gathering near Rostov-on-Don, as being consistent with the mercenaries' announced return to their bases. The fact that they were actually preparing to seize Rostov apparently hadn't been apparent to the BND analysts.
The discontent over the latest developments has since spread to the German ministries controlled by the partners in the coalition government. According to reports, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party expressed irritation that she had participated in a meeting with high-ranking BND representatives as recently as Friday – and that the power struggle between the Wagner mercenary group and the Kremlin hadn't even been broached.
The Foreign Ministry has also expressed displeasure that even the sparse information it does receive from the BND must be painstakingly elicited from the agency. Sources say the Foreign Ministry learned through their own analysis of Russian Telegram groups that Prigozhin's private army was on a confrontation course with the Kremlin. One of Baerbock's staffers apparently then asked the BND what was going on.
It was not until much later in the evening that a response from the intelligence officials arrived – with rather sparse explanations that didn't go beyond the level of what could be inferred from public sources, according to Foreign Ministry officials.
To be fair, even in normal times, officials in the Foreign Ministry don't think very highly of the BND. But officials inside the Defense Ministry also seemed displeased about the situation. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of the Social Democrats first learned of the attempted Wagner coup on the morning of Saturday, June 24. From news agencies.
News round-up, July 3, 2023
Quote of the day…
International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter
“Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies
THE GUARDIAN, ALEX LAWSON, MON 3 JUL 2023 Most read…
Joe Biden’s $400 Billion Man
Igar Shah, who runs the Energy Department’s loan program, is trying to hand out a lot of money for green-technology projects, while navigating an unforgiving political environment
WSJ Scott Patterson, and Amrith Ramkumar, July 2, 2023 Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby…
“The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.
The Washington Post By Fredrick Kunkle and Kostiantyn Khudov, July 2, 2023 Factbox: Japan aims to become major offshore wind energy producer
The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) have made a firm commitment to generate 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy in four specified regions. They have substantially advanced in achieving this goal by successfully concluding the second phase of offshore wind tender processes. This statement highlights the Japanese government's dedication to achieving sustainable economic development and reducing emissions.
Reuters By Katya Golubkova and Yuka Obayashi / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter
“Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies
The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 Source: Energoatom / SAMUEL GRANADOS / THE WASHINGTON POSTUkraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.
〰️
Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown. 〰️
Quote of the day…
“International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter
Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies
The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 Most read…
Joe Biden’s $400 Billion Man
Jigar Shah, who runs the Energy Department’s loan program, is trying to hand out a lot of money for green-technology projects, while navigating an unforgiving political environment
WSJ Scott Patterson, and Amrith Ramkumar, July 2, 2023 Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby…
“The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.
The Washington Post By Fredrick Kunkle and Kostiantyn Khudov, July 2, 2023 Factbox: Japan aims to become major offshore wind energy producer
The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) have made a firm commitment to generate 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy in four specified regions. They have substantially advanced in achieving this goal by successfully concluding the second phase of offshore wind tender processes. This statement highlights the Japanese government's dedication to achieving sustainable economic development and reducing emissions.
Reuters By Katya Golubkova and Yuka Obayashi / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter
Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies
The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Jigar Shah, center, with colleagues in his Washington, D.C., office. With new funding, ‘the floodgates have really opened,’ said a former leader of the program. ALYSSA SCHUKAR FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL / editing by Germán & CoJoe Biden’s $400 Billion Man
Jigar Shah, who runs the Energy Department’s loan program, is trying to hand out a lot of money for green-technology projects, while navigating an unforgiving political environment
WSJ Scott Patterson, and Amrith Ramkumar, July 2, 2023 Jigar Shah is living an investor’s dream, one with more strings attached than a symphony orchestra.
Shah has $400 billion of government funds to pour into businesses touting green-energy projects. But he has to do it under the eye of critical lawmakers, cautious bureaucrats and the White House, which has already clashed with him on the politics of his lending juggernaut. Losses are likely and will be frowned on by Congress.
The line for Shah’s cash stretches to 150 companies seeking $127.7 billion in loans, ranging from new companies with unproven products to giants such as General Motors and PG&E, the California utility blamed for deadly wildfires. Funneling that much money to climate startups in a short time would be near impossible. Shah has begun writing bigger checks, including a record $9.2 billion commitment to a Ford joint venture making batteries in Tennessee and Kentucky.
The source of Shah’s financial firepower is the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office, an overlooked piece of the Biden administration’s strategy to address climate change. Largely quiescent for almost a decade, the office is designed to finance businesses that are important to the country’s energy transition but unable to borrow from traditional lenders, often because their technology is seen as too risky or because the terms are too onerous.
Resurrected
The Loan Programs Office has made several commitments recently after years of stagnation.
LPO project portfolio
Ford/SK, Battery JV, $9.2 billion, 2024; GM/LG, 2.5 billion, 2023; Li-Cycle, $375 million, 2022; Monolith, 1.04 billion, 2021; Sunnova, $3 billion, Commitments under Jigar Shah, 2020.
*Date of initial issuance shown. The project has received several rounds of funding.
Note: Data through late June. Date of commitment or loan issuance shown. Excludes projects that closed loans but received no disbursement for various reasons.Sources: Loan Programs Office; the companies“We would absolutely look at investing alongside them,” said Jehangir Vevaina, a managing partner at Brookfield Asset Management who helps oversee the private firm’s $15 billion energy transition fund. That fund, one of the largest of its kind, typically invests in a company’s equity, which can become less risky when government loans give businesses a stamp of approval, as well as lower borrowing costs than commercial banks.
Climate-related provisions in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act gave Shah’s office a windfall, multiplying its lending capacity 10-fold. That pile of cash is at least 20 times as big as most private green-energy funds, giving Shah and the Loan Programs Office a major role in shaping the American energy landscape.
That is how Shah found himself in early 2021 calling hundreds of clean-energy executives to pitch the loans his office could provide. Primary targets were clean-energy startups that had raised at least $100 million in equity financing. He also wooed big businesses with the resources to pay back large loans.
Some were reluctant to apply, worried about the complicated approval process and the risks of taking a government loan. Shah, eager to get funds out the door, can be impatient. In September, he pressed a startup company that has a plan for recycling batteries to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars from the federal government to construct a plant.
The company’s chief executive, Ajay Kochhar, was hesitant, unsure how quickly it could repay. “Get your ass to Pittsburgh,” where a clean-energy conference was about to start, Shah told the executive, according to people familiar with the conversation.
At a coffee shop soon after, Shah told Kochhar, of Li-Cycle Holdings, that its recycling plant could easily generate enough revenue for repayment. Five months later, the two announced a $375 million federal loan.
Shah’s office is “the clean-energy bank of the United States,” said Peter Davidson, who led it from 2013 to 2015. With its burst of funding, “the floodgates have really opened,” he said.
The loan program is part of the reason the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits and spending represent one of the largest outlays of taxpayer-financed industrial stimulus since the 1930s New Deal.
In early June, Shah’s office committed $850 million to startup battery maker Kore Power. The loan would fund what the company calls the KOREplex, a giant battery manufacturing facility in the desert about 35 miles west of Phoenix.
Shortly after, the Loan Programs Office announced the record commitment to the Ford battery venture. The $9.2 billion agreement is bigger than the $5.9 billion Ford borrowed from the office starting in 2009, when it was struggling through the financial crisis.
Solyndra PTSD
Hanging over the Loan Programs Office’s every move is what Shah called “Solyndra PTSD.” Despite the office’s successes, which include backing Tesla, it remains dogged by a busted loan to solar-panel startup Solyndra.
Solyndra failed in 2011 after China flooded the market with low-price panels. In addition, an investigation by the Energy Department’s inspector general found Solyndra had misrepresented facts and omitted key information in getting the loan. The $535 million loan that went sour made staffers cautious, borrowers nervous and critics of the program aggressive.
The Energy Department’s loan office has come under fire in the past, most notably for its botched funding to Solyndra, a solar-panel manufacturer that went bust in 2011. PHOTO: ALYSSA SCHUKAR FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R., Wash.), chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has called the expanded funding “Solyndra on steroids” and said the Inflation Reduction Act’s new spending and lending “has heightened the risk for waste, fraud and abuse.” She said her committee is in regular contact with the loan office.
Shah’s first loan deal after taking over in 2021 was a $1 billion commitment to Monolith, a company that aims to produce hydrogen from natural gas. The company’s technology will capture the carbon that the process yields and turn it into a material for everyday products such as tires. Clean hydrogen is an alternative to oil and gas.
Several members of Shah’s staff worried the deal was too risky, people familiar with the matter said. Shah argued it was safe because it required Monolith to set aside revenue and meet rigorous requirements before getting the money, such as showing its production process would work at scale. Monolith hasn’t yet met them.
Last summer, Monolith raised more than $300 million in equity from investors including BlackRock and NextEra Energy, the most valuable power company in the U.S.
Staff members raised concerns about a potential loan to a company called Syrah Resources, a producer of graphite, which is used in rechargeable batteries, people familiar with the matter said. Raw material for its Louisiana processing facility would come from a mine in Mozambique, the scene of terrorist attacks, raising concerns that disruptions would threaten Syrah’s project. Shah pushed ahead, on the grounds that the program was protected in the deal and the U.S. needed to lessen its dependence on China for graphite. The office issued a $102 million loan last summer.
When Shah supported granting a loan for an Occidental Petroleum project, White House officials told him it could backfire. The project involved removing carbon from the atmosphere via a new technology, then injecting it into the ground to extract more oil. Administration officials worried about a backlash from environmentalists, a person familiar with the discussion said.
Shah argued it was worth exploring as a way to develop carbon-removal technology. The loan application is still working its way through the office. Occidental’s first big carbon- removal plant is under construction.
Despite having lived for decades around Washington, D.C., Shah seems more like a creature of Silicon Valley’s high-tech culture than a Beltway denizen. He co-founded a solar-energy company, SunEdison, in 2003 with a home-equity line of credit. It revolutionized the way businesses and homeowners paid for rooftop solar panels. Under its financing concept, which Shah drew up for a business-school class project at the University of Maryland, the panels are typically paid for over a 20-year stretch, in part with buyers’ savings from generating their own power, making the panels almost free in the long run.
Installations exploded, and SunEdison became North America’s largest rooftop-solar provider. Shah left in 2008, the company was sold in 2009. Years later it went bankrupt after an aggressive growth strategy backfired.
Shah co-founded clean-energy investment firm Generate Capital about nine years ago. His effusive personality and list of contacts helped build Generate into one of the largest clean-energy investment firms. At Generate’s San Francisco office he would hold court in a cavernous space known as the “Jigar-torium.”
When approached by the Biden transition team about leading the Loan Programs Office, Shah was reluctant. On a podcast he used to co-host called, “The Energy Gang,” he once called the office “irredeemable” because it was doing so little.
Patti Poppe, now the CEO of PG&E, listened to the podcast in the mornings while exercising on her treadmill. “It would make me run faster because he’d make me mad,” she said. Shah often criticized utilities for moving too slowly. Poppe eventually invited Shah to talk to the management team at her previous job in Michigan and became convinced the industry needed to be more aggressive.
At PG&E, she is seeking a roughly $7 billion loan to upgrade and bury the utility’s outdated power lines, to reduce wildfire risk and keep up with rising electricity demand driven by electric vehicles.
‘Damn you!’
Before Shah took the job, his Generate colleagues told him accepting was a dumb idea unless he could make the office more efficient, he said in an interview at his Energy Department office, clad in his blue fleece vest and Stan Smith tennis shoes.
He outlined his demands, including provisions that would make it easier to lend to companies in the electric-vehicle supply chain. On a call with DOE officials, they agreed to all of his conditions, he said.
“I was like, ‘Damn you!’ ” he recalled.
He tripled the agency’s staff to roughly 250 and recruited debt experts from banks. He sought energy specialists such as Bill Magness, a former CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, that state’s power grid operator.
According to Magness, Shah invited him to meetings even before he agreed to join. “How could you not do it?” Shah told him, Magness said. Magness was a consultant for the office for a year before departing in 2022.
In April, Shah expanded on the rooftop-solar financing model he developed for his first company by improving access to loans for people with below-average credit scores. Through a $3 billion commitment to home-solar company Sunnova, the office would guarantee that even if some users default, many investors would be repaid. Shah is confident defaults will be low, and the backstop won’t be needed.
“If you have a normal government person coming into this spot, they’ll never think of something like that,” said Sunnova’s chief executive, John Berger.
The Loan Programs Office had largely been dormant since the second Obama term. The bulk of the office’s loans in the last decade went to utilities building the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, a nuclear power project in Georgia.
Shah’s tenure and the program’s aggressive lending could prove short-lived if Republicans win back the White House next year. In Congress, McMorris Rodgers has criticized the loan office’s high funding level and promised greater oversight.
Shah says the government is more protected with today’s deals, through provisions that ensure the government will get some money back even if a borrower fails. The program has beefed up goals companies must meet before receiving funds.
The office’s default rate of 3% is comparable to the performance of loan portfolios of commercial banks, Shah has said. It has made money for the government over its lifetime.
All the loans need a series of approvals from a committee of senior Energy Department staff, as well as Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the White House Office of Management and Budget and the Treasury Department.
“If anyone can crack through some of the red tape, it’s a force of nature like Jigar,” said Scott Jacobs, who co-founded Generate Capital with Shah and one other person. “Yet I’m not sure anyone can get through all of the bureaucracy.”
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Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU
Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster.
These people live nearby…
Nadiya Hez, with her 1-year-old son, waits to fill her containers at a water truck last week in Tomakivka, Ukraine. Residents there have been without water since the Kakhovka dam breach earlier in June. (Heidi Levine for The Washington Post) / Editing by germán & co“The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.
The Washington Post By Fredrick Kunkle and Kostiantyn Khudov, July 2, 2023 TOMAKIVKA, Ukraine — The risk of a major disaster at the nearby Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant terrifies Nadiya Hez, who lives in an area that would probably take the brunt of any deadly radioactive fallout.
The nuclear plant has been in continual danger as Russian and Ukrainian troops trade fire in its vicinity, but the chance of a meltdown has increased sharply since the destruction of the Kakhovka dam just downstream. The June 6 breach unleashed a catastrophic flood and jeopardized the supply of water needed to cool the plant’s reactors and spent fuel.
But there have been so many horrors since Russia invaded last year that Hez and others in this Ukrainian town have responded to the threat of a nuclear disaster with a mix of dread and hardened fatalism.
Hez, who is a nurse, at least has iodine tablets on hand to mitigate the effects of radiation poisoning. After days of searching, she located a key to the root cellar outside their Soviet-era home that could serve as a crude fallout shelter for her, her husband and their 1-year-old son, Ihor, should radiation escape from the Russian-held nuclear power plant about 22 miles away. There has been little else to do except wait and focus on the daily hardships the war has already inflicted upon their lives.
“It’s horrible — I don’t even want to think about it,” Hez, 22, said while juggling her baby and several heavy water jugs from a charity’s roving tanker truck. The town’s municipal water system was knocked out when the dam went.
Warnings from Ukrainian officials and atomic energy experts about a potential disaster in southeastern Ukraine have gained urgency since the dam’s breach. Ukrainian officials accuse Russian forces of deliberately blowing up part of the dam, an allegation Moscow has denied.
What to know about Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
As far back as October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted that Russia would destroy the dam. Now, Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials have upped the tempo of warnings that Russian forces plan to sabotage the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest such facility in Europe.
Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, who heads Ukraine’s military intelligence, said through a spokesman that Russians have planted explosives next to four of the six reactors and mined the cooling pond used to supply water to chill the reactors and spent fuel.
“There is an extremely high risk of human error or, given the amount of explosives, an accidental detonation,” spokesman Andriy Yusov said.
On Friday, the military intelligence agency issued an ominous update, saying that the three Russian supervisors had evacuated and Ukrainian employees signed to work for the Russian state nuclear power conglomerate should depart by July 5. The report also said that personnel remaining behind had been told to “blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies.”
Earlier this week, Ihor Klymenko, who heads the Ministry of Internal Affairs, announced training exercises at all levels of government to deal with a possible nuclear disaster. These have included planning for evacuations within a certain radius of the plant, road closures and the creation of checkpoints to screen people for radiation exposure.
For residents unable to evacuate in time, officials have urged sheltering in place, making sure to shut off ventilation and air conditioners and seal up windows with dampened cloth and tape. When outdoors, he said, people should wear masks that can filter out airborne radioactive dust and other particles.
IAEA chief pushes plan to secure nuclear plant ahead of Ukraine offensive
Klymenko and other officials have also urged the public to remain calm — advice that many Ukrainians seem to have taken to heart, despite their country’s history with Chernobyl, the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, and nine years of violent conflict with Russia.
“People are already hardened, resilient,” said Yuriy Malashko, the head of the Zaporizhzhia region’s military administration.
Water levels at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Source: Energoatom / SAMUEL GRANADOS / THE WASHINGTON POSTRussian forces seized control of the nuclear power plant soon after President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion in February 2022. All six reactors have since been shut down.
The plant has had several close calls, including from repeated artillery strikes that cut the electric lines maintaining its cooling operations. It is now faced with a dwindling supply of water because of the dam breach.
After the construction of the plant in the 1980s, the reservoir of the Kakhovka dam was used to fill the holding pond cooling its reactors and spent fuel.
As of June 24, the pond’s water level stands at about 16 meters (52 feet) — only four meters above the minimum level necessary to cool the plant, said Olena Pareniuk, a senior researcher at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences who has studied nuclear power plant disasters.
The situation led the International Atomic Energy Agency’s general director to conduct an emergency inspection of the nuclear plant days after the dam breach.
In a statement posted on the IAEA’s website, Rafael Mariano Grossi said the cooling pond is being replenished with water from a discharge channel at a nearby coal-fired power plant and from a drainage system fed by underground water. At the current rate of evaporation — about four inches a day, Grossi estimated that the plant has enough water for “many weeks.” He also said he saw no evidence it had been mined.
Just as concerning, however, is the added pressure on remaining Ukrainian staff, Pareniuk said. Perhaps only 3,000 of its 11,000 employees are left to oversee its operations — “barely enough” to keep the plant safe in a shutdown state and far too few for an emergency.
“The threat of a terrorist attack is high,” said a Ukrainian employee still working at the plant, whom The Washington Post is not naming to protect his safety. He said the plant has already reduced the amount of water used to cool the reactors — the hottest of which, according to Pareniuk, is still at about 536 degrees Fahrenheit even after being shut down.
Ukrainian officials and atomic energy experts warn that without sufficient cooling, a reactor’s core could overheat, allowing the buildup of an explosive mixture of hydrogen gas and steam that could rupture the containment structure and blow dangerous amounts of radiation into the air. The reactors could melt down within 10 hours or two weeks without water, Budanov said.
What could happen then? Pareniuk and other experts said it is unlikely to be anything like Chernobyl, which blew when the reactor was in active operation. She said the most likely worst-case scenario could be something on scale with the Fukushima disaster in 2011, when fuel in three of the Japanese nuclear plant’s four reactors melted down following a massive earthquake and tsunami.
If so, a poisonous cloud could spread across Ukraine, contaminating its agricultural heartland and probably drifting over European neighbors with radioactive particles that increase the risk of certain cancers. Radioactive contamination is likely to reach the Dnieper River, too, flowing into the Black Sea. Depending on water currents, the contamination could touch every country along the Black Sea’s shores, Pareniuk said. As a bio-radiologist, she understands in detail what that could mean for her and her 4-year-old child, though they live far away, west of the capital, Kyiv.
“I’m terrified,” she said.
So are many people in this small town, located at the edge of the potential 20-mile exclusion zone around the plant. That’s the radius of the no man’s land that still exists around the Chernobyl plant.
Even before the dam break, Hez had already been through a lot. She gave birth in a hospital bunker in Nikopol as Russian artillery pounded the city. Constant shelling there forced her and her husband, Oleksiy, 23, to relocate here with their baby, where they subsist on state assistance as displaced people and the parents of a child — about $135 a month.
Both have been contacted by the military’s draft officials, one of whom told her she would have to put her baby in the care of his grandmother or someone else because her services are needed.
“It’s like a horror movie,” said Vita Lyashenko, 47, a nurse waiting in line with about 50 other people to collect drinking water in the center of town. Like others, she has been gathering rainwater, recycling water for household chores and going longer without showers since the municipal water system went down after the dam breach. She has also set aside iodine tablets, extra water and tape to seal her windows against radioactive fallout.
Olena Mykytiuk, 59, who lives on disability while caring for her ailing husband, said she, too, has iodine pills but isn’t sure whether she wants to take them. She also worries about what might happen to her chickens.
“We don’t know how to prepare ourselves for radiation,” Mykytiuk said. “We are watching the news, and we know all they need to do is to press a button.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
A wind turbine is seen behind a streetlamp in Yokohama, Japan August 9, 2017. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo / Editing by Germán & CoFactbox: Japan aims to become major offshore wind energy producer
The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) have made a firm commitment to generate 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy in four specified regions. They have substantially advanced in achieving this goal by successfully concluding the second phase of offshore wind tender processes. This statement highlights the Japanese government's dedication to achieving sustainable economic development and reducing emissions.
Reuters By Katya Golubkova and Yuka Obayashi / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023TOKYO, June 30 (Reuters) - Japan plans to become one of the world's top offshore wind energy producers, joining the likes of China and the United Kingdom, as it makes the transition to a zero-emission economy while also seeking greater energy security.
Japanese companies have offshore wind assets from Taiwan to Belgium and UK but are yet to build large-scale farms at home.
On Friday, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) finished accepting proposals for the second major round of offshore wind tenders to build 1.8 gigawatt (GW) capacity in four areas. Below are main facts about Japan's offshore wind sector.
CAPACITY
Japan had 136 megawatt (MW) of offshore wind capacity installed as of 2022, a fraction compared to nearly 14 GW in UK and 31 GW in China, according to Global Wind Energy Council.
It aims to have 10 GW by 2030 and up to 45 GW operational by 2040 as it wants renewables to provide 36% to 38% of its electricity mix by the end of this decade from around 20% now and has targeted becoming carbon neutral by 2050.
A Marubeni-led consortium (8002.T) launched Japan's first large-scale commercial offshore wind operations at Noshiro Port (84 MW) and Akita Port (55 MW) in late 2022 and early 2023.
SECOND ROUND
The government's auction for another 1.8 GW of capacity, conducted over six months, concluded on June 30. The winners will be announced by the end of March 2024, though they could be named as early as December.
It was auctioning four areas, all with bottom-fixed structures, in total:
- Happo Town and Noshiro City in Akita Prefecture (356 MW)
- Oga City, Katagami City and Akita City in Akita Prefecture (336 MW)
- Murakami City and Tainai City in Niigata Prefecture (700 MW)
- Enoshima, Saikai City in Nagasaki Prefecture (424 MW)
Under the revised rules, companies are not allowed to disclose whether they intend to bid.
JERA, Japan's top power generator, has said it was conducting environmental assessment procedures for Oga-Katagami-Akita project and Happo-Noshiro project.
Itochu Corp 8001.T, Tokyo Gas Co Ltd 9531.T and other companies are considering bidding for some of the projects, according to the Nikkei business daily.
FLOATING OFFSHORE
In 2021, the government selected a consortium of six companies led by Toda Corporation to build the 16.8 MW Goto floating offshore wind farm in Nagasaki prefecture. It was the only bidder in a public auction for the small project.
Japan is working to create a new roadmap for floating offshore wind power by the end of March 2024.
EXPERIENCE
Foreign companies are likely to need Japanese partners in order to participate in auctions as they would need to discuss plans with local authorities, fishermen and residents, whose opposition led to some wind power projects being scrapped in the past.
The UK wants to take part in developing Japan's offshore wind power via options ranging from the participation of its energy companies to providing financing and insurance, Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps told Reuters in April.
At the time of the first round, a number of foreign companies, including Denmark's Orsted (ORSTED.CO), Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE) and Norway's Equinor (EQNR.OL), showed interest in entering the Japanese market.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Fatih Birol said European governments had made strategic mistakes, including an overreliance on Russia for energy. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty/ Editing by Germán & CoInternational Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter
Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies
The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that energy prices may spike again this winter, forcing government to subsidise bills – just days after state support for UK households fell away.
Fatih Birol said a rapid improvement in the Chinese economy, coupled with a harsh winter, could put pressure on gas supplies and push up bills for consumers.
He said the agency “cannot rule out” another spike in gas prices this winter, which would mirror last year when a surge in wholesale costs as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fed through to huge consumer bills.
“In a scenario where the Chinese economy is very strong, buys a lot of energy from the markets, and we have a harsh winter, we may see strong upward pressure under natural gas prices, which in turn will put an extra burden on consumers,” Birol told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
China’s economy had been bouncing back from Covid restrictions – pushing up demand for gas supplies – however, recent indicators suggest a slowdown. “We do not know yet how strongly the Chinese economy will rebound,” Birol said.
Last autumn the then prime minister, Liz Truss, was forced to step in to subsidise bills for households and consumers, and that support was extended in March to cap average bills at £2,500 from April to the end of June after demands from campaigners.
On Saturday, the Ofgem price cap fell to £2,074, in effect replacing the government energy price guarantee, although bills remain almost £1,000 more than two years ago.
Russia reduced supplies of gas into Europe last year, causing fears that power cuts may occur over the winter and sparking a huge effort to reduce consumption on the continent. The UK government belatedly introduced a campaign to encourage energy saving in December.
Birol said European governments had made “strategic mistakes”, including an overreliance on Russia for energy, and that foreign policy had been “blindfolded” by short-term commercial decisions.
Countries have made attempts to improve their ability to import gas from other countries and ramp up their renewable energy generation, but there are simmering fears that Vladimir Putin’s regime may decide to cut supplies of Russian gas into Europe this winter.
Birol said he “wouldn’t rule out blackouts” this winter as “part of the game”.
Last week, the chief executive of Centrica, the British Gas owner, said household energy bills were likely to remain high for the foreseeable future as wholesale market prices remain inflated.
Gas prices eased earlier this year as a relatively mild European winter reduced demand. However, prices have rallied in recent weeks, up 40% in June, amid fears over supplies this winter.
Month-ahead UK gas prices rose by almost 6% on Monday to 96.5p a therm.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo / Editing by Germán & CoExclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin
“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…
Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a longtime admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Thursday Putin has been "somewhat weakened" by an aborted mutiny and that now is the time for the United States to try to broker a negotiated peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine.
"I want people to stop dying over this ridiculous war," Trump told Reuters in a telephone interview.
Speaking expansively about foreign policy, the front-runner in opinion polls for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination also said China should be given a 48-hour deadline to get out of what sources familiar with the matter say is a Chinese spy capability on the island of Cuba 90 miles (145 km) off the U.S. coast.
On Ukraine, Trump did not rule out that the Kyiv government might have to concede some territory to Russia in order to stop the war, which began with Russian forces invading Ukraine 16 months ago. He said everything would be "subject to negotiation", if he were president, but that Ukrainians who have waged a vigorous fight to defend their land have "earned a lot of credit."
"I think they would be entitled to keep much of what they've earned and I think that Russia likewise would agree to that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don't have that right now," he said.
U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO allies want Russia out of territory it has seized in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive that has made small gains in driving out Russian forces.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last year proposed a 10-point peace plan, which calls on Russia to withdraw all of its troops.
"I think the biggest thing that the U.S. should be doing right now is making peace - getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace. You can do it," Trump said. "This is the time to do it, to get the two parties together to force peace."
As president, Trump developed friendly relations with Putin, who Biden said on Wednesday has "become a bit of pariah around the world" for invading Ukraine.
Trump said Putin had been damaged by an uprising by the Russian mercenary force, the Wagner Group, and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, last weekend.
"You could say that he's (Putin) still there, he's still strong, but he certainly has been I would say somewhat weakened at least in the minds of a lot of people," he said.
If Putin were no longer in power, however, "you don't know what the alternative is. It could be better, but it could be far worse," Trump said.
As for war crime charges levied against Putin by the International Criminal Court last March, Trump said Putin's fate should be discussed when the war is over "because right now if you bring that topic up you'll never make peace, you'll never make a settlement."
Trump was adamantly opposed to China's spy base on Cuba and said if Beijing refused to accept his 48-hour demand for shutting it down, a Trump administration would impose new tariffs on Chinese goods.
As president, Trump adopted a tougher stance on China while claiming a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping that soured over the coronavirus pandemic.
"I'd give them 48 hours to get out. And if they didn't get out, I'd charge them a 100% tariff on everything they sell to the United States, and they'd be gone within two days. They'd be gone within one hour," Trump said.
Trump was mum on whether the United States would support Taiwan militarily if China invaded the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.
"I don't talk about that. And the reason I don't is because it would hurt my negotiating position," he said. "All I can tell you is for four years, there was no threat. And it wouldn't happen if I were president."
“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…
Community engagement…
“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, has always been dedicated to helping those in need. Their commitment to community engagement is remarkable through their notable initiative, Project "Alcatraz." In addition, during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020, Santa Teresa stepped up with their "Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle" as a response to the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the hospitality industry. It's inspiring to see a brand like Santa Teresa offering hope to the most vulnerable and positively impacting their community…
Germán & CoImage courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & CoCyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023
〰️
Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 〰️
Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & CoInspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…
The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.
By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023The cruel war that we had to live through during the later phases of the initial wave of the pandemic until the present day has had a profound impact on our endeavors and has destabilized our emotional state. An unprecedented inflationary phenomenon has had a detrimental impact on the most vulnerable members of our society, exacerbating their already marginalized status. We may have inadvertently overlooked the presence of the Covid-19 virus as a result of the exceptional circumstances surrounding this time.
On June 15 and yesterday, “Nebraska Medicine” and “The New York Times” reported that more than 9,747 patients are hospitalized in the United States per week, with 16% of those being ICU patients. The test positivity rate for the week of June 2-8 was 7.2%. When test positivity is above 5%, transmission is considered uncontrolled. Still, since many are using home tests that are not reported through public health or are not testing at all, the official case counts underestimate the actual prevalence of COVID-19.
According to a study published in “Plos Pathogens” by the University of Kent (England) on Friday, 17 November 2019, the initial identification of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurred in Wuhan, China. The composition of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is relatively uncomplicated, consisting of proteins and nucleic acids. It is important to acknowledge that the replication of this virus is contingent upon its ability to exploit the metabolic processes of specific living cells.
One of the most notable consequences resulting from the global outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic is the profound transformation in human emotional behavior. This —-diminutive—- organism evoked a profound sense of fear, a stark reminder of the prevailing sense of isolation and detachment within our technologically advanced society.
In the current digital age, which is marked by the widespread use of technology and online connectivity, traditional forms of displaying affection, such as physical touch and face-to-face interactions, have been replaced by virtual representations and a constant online presence.
The absence of interpersonal interaction can have detrimental consequences on our general state of health, and in severe instances, it may even lead to our demise.
The prevailing state of health can be ascribed to an alleged human mistake that occurred in a laboratory located in the distant province of Wuhan, China, which is widely recognized for its rich historical heritage spanning thousands of years.
The implications of these unknow living conditions extend beyond the scope of human sensory perception and have profound implications for the industrial sector. The mandated restriction on individuals' mobility has impeded their capacity to travel to their workplaces, resulting in a scarcity of crucial raw materials and components. Consequently, the interruption in the production chain impedes its efficient operation, leading to a shortage of crucial commodities necessary for the sustenance of human life.
Furthermore, the insufficient accessibility of crucial goods and the exorbitant expenses linked to global maritime transportation contribute to the prevalence of inflation, a deleterious phenomenon. Additionally, it is anticipated that the inflation rate will attain a minimum of 18% during the last three years. The management of the national economy and household budgets presents significant challenges during the prevailing financial crisis.
Rapid adaptability to change has traditionally been regarded as a commendable human quality…
Why does this phenomenon manifest itself?
The answer to this inquiry is uncomplicated. Human existence does not persist in a perpetual state of either joy or sorrow, nor is it exclusively characterized by a state of stability or instability. Fortunately, life is not defined by such a simplistic nature. On the contrary, the trajectory of life is distinguished by its complex and intricate nature, encompassing a myriad of encounters and mis encounters, along with moments of affection and aversion.
In conclusion, human existence is constantly confronted with unforeseen and profound transformations. As inherently human beings, we possess an innate sense of solidarity within our essence. This sense of community and togetherness helps us navigate the challenges that life throws our way.
The teachings and spirituality of Saint Teresa of Avila, also known as Teresa de Cepeda y Ahumada, a nun who devoted her life to praying for the most vulnerable five centuries ago and was later canonized, profoundly influenced the Wollmer family, owners of Hacienda Santa Teresa, situated in the mountainous Aragua Valley, the heart of Venezuela's sugar industry, they were deeply moved by her teachings and spiritual beliefs, Long before the inception of the corporate social responsibility trend.
“Santa Teresa” represents the most ancient rum brand in Venezuela. The Hacienda Santa Teresa, the site of rum production, has a historical origin dating back to 1796. The Hacienda initially operated as a cultivator of coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane. The production of rum started in 1830 and has continued ever since, despite the company's acknowledgment of various adversities such as war, revolutions, invasions, dictators, and the current pandemic.
The company produces several rum expressions, but only one of them, namely “Santa Teresa 1796 Solera Rum”, is designated for exportation. This expression was first release in 1996 to commemorate the Hacienda's bicentennial. Bacardi Ltd oversees the international management of this one-of-a-kind.
Botlle Waxing / Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & CoThe brand has a long history of community involvement. The organization's most renowned endeavour is the ongoing Project “Alcatraz”. In 2003, a criminal gang unlawfully entered the Hacienda premises and launched a surprise attack on a security guard. When apprehended, the perpetrators were presented with an unconventional option:
Either surrender to the authorities or engage in labour at the Hacienda to restate their transgression.
The offer was accepted, leading to the establishment of Project “Alcatraz”. Since its creation, Project “Alcatraz” has evolved into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to recruiting and rehabilitating those involved in criminal gangs. This program utilizes various strategies, including vocational training, values formation, psychological counselling, formal education, and participation in rugby, to reintegrate these individuals into society. To date, the program has witnessed the participation of numerous young people.
In the summer of 2020, during the hell of the pandemic, following its longstanding commitment to community assistance, the company introduced a “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry. “Santa Teresa” employed a group of 25 bartenders to undertake the task of designing the label for the “Special Edition” expression, starting with Liana Oster, a bartender at the “Dante Bar “ in New York, every participant in the study contributed to the development the brand and subsequently handed it over to the following participant in the sequence.
Project “Alcatraz” / Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & CoImage: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
News round-up, June 30, 2023
Community engagement…
“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, has always been dedicated to helping those in need. Their commitment to community engagement is remarkable through their notable initiative, Project "Alcatraz." In addition, during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020, Santa Teresa stepped up with their "Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle" as a response to the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the hospitality industry. It's inspiring to see a brand like Santa Teresa offering hope to the most vulnerable and positively impacting their community…
Germán & CoMost read…
Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military
Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels?
WASHINGTON POST BY JOSEPH MENN, JUNE 30, 2023 EU to propose exit from Energy Charter Treaty over climate concerns
The Energy Charter Treaty was established in 1998 to advance investments in the energy sector. Fifty countries, including the European Union member states, have signed it. However, lately, there have been growing concerns about the treaty. It has allowed energy companies to take legal action against governments for policies that negatively impact their investments.
REUTERS BY KATE ABNETT / EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JUNE 29, 2023 Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…
“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…
The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.
BY GERMÁN & CO, KARLSTAD, SWEDEN, JUNE 30, 2023 Canadian wildfire smoke spreads, 100 million Americans under air-quality alerts
Air-quality alerts lasted until midnight for several states, including Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. The alerts also extended to New York, Washington, and the East Coast.
REUTERS BY BRENDAN O'BRIEN, EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JUNE 29, 2023 Exclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin
“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…
REUTERS BY STEVE HOLLAND AND NATHAN LAYNE / EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JUNE 30, 2023A view of the Kremlin in Moscow. (Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) / editing by Germán & Co Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023
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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 〰️
Community engagement…
“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, has always been dedicated to helping those in need. Their commitment to community engagement is remarkable through their notable initiative, Project "Alcatraz." In addition, during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020, Santa Teresa stepped up with their "Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle" as a response to the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the hospitality industry. It's inspiring to see a brand like Santa Teresa offering hope to the most vulnerable and positively impacting their community…
Germán & CoMost read…
Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military
Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels?
Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 EU to propose exit from Energy Charter Treaty over climate concerns
The Energy Charter Treaty was established in 1998 to advance investments in the energy sector. Fifty countries, including the European Union member states, have signed it. However, lately, there have been growing concerns about the treaty. It has allowed energy companies to take legal action against governments for policies that negatively impact their investments.
REUTERS By Kate Abnett / Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…
“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…
The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.
By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023Canadian wildfire smoke spreads, 100 million Americans under air-quality alerts
Air-quality alerts lasted until midnight for several states, including Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. The alerts also extended to New York, Washington, and the East Coast.
Reuters By Brendan O'Brien, Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023Exclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin
“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…
Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
A view of the Kremlin in Moscow. (Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) / editing by Germán & CoCyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military
Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels?
Reuters by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 A satellite communications system serving the Russian military was knocked offline by a cyberattack late Wednesday and remained mostly down on Thursday, in an incident reminiscent of an attack on a similar system used by Ukraine at the start of the war between the countries.
Dozor-Teleport, the satellite system’s operator, switched some users to terrestrial networks during the outage, according to JD Work, a cyberspace professor at the National Defense University. Analyst Doug Madory of Kentik, which monitors online traffic, said one network was taken over by Dozor’s parent company, Amtel-Svyaz, while three others remained down.
The company did not release a statement on what had gone wrong. At least two groups claimed responsibility for the attack, one describing itself as a hacktivist organization and the other as part of the Wagner Group, the mercenaries who mutinied last week and marched most of the way to Moscow. The hackers claimed to have sent malicious software to the satellite terminals, setting off a scramble among security experts to obtain a terminal for testing.
Hacking Russia was off-limits. The Ukraine war made it a free-for-all.
Multiple self-proclaimed hacktivists have attacked websites and critical infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine since the war began, but many of them coordinate with or are cover for military forces, according to sources familiar with their efforts.
A connection to Wagner could be faked to promote more division in Russia. A real one would be more interesting, showing that the mutinous actions may continue in cyberspace even if they have stopped on Earth.
Though Work said local market researchers estimated that the satellite arm of the company only has $10 million in annual revenue, it serves the Russian military and other federal services. Work said reporting elsewhere showed that its customers include Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
The impact of the shutdown will depend on its duration and whether the customers had other means to communicate that are reliable and secure. For many, satellite communications are the backup, while military units on the move could find it more vital.
“It’s doubtful this is crippling, unless there happened to be customers for whom this is their only connectivity option,” said Brian Weeden, a director at Secure World Foundation, a Washington think tank focused on space issues.
War in space: U.S. officials debating rules for a conflict in orbit
Ukraine has in the past been able to intercept Russian soldiers’ communications when they did not use a satellite service.
Satellite hacks are rare and are disclosed even more rarely. The attack on Viasat service used by the Ukraine military and others in February 2022 has been seen as one of the most successful hacking attacks of the war. SpaceX’s Starlink service became a vital alternative inside the country, and it has withstood multiple hacking attempts since then.
The Viasat hack was attributed by experts to Russia’s military intelligence arm, the GRU. But Wagner mercenaries could have worked closely enough with the GRU to have picked up techniques used in that attack. If so, it would have been easier for them to turn around and use it against Russia’s Dozor.
“There are a variety of scenarios where this capability, in a confused and uncertain post-mutiny environment, could have been brought to the front,” Work said.
A U.S. military spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. A person familiar with Western operations supporting Ukraine in cyberspace said it was not clear who was behind the latest attack.
…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.
Ricardo Manuel Falú
Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU
Smoke bellow from the chimneys of Belchatow Power Station, Europe's largest biggest coal-fired power plant, in this May 7, 2009 POLAND-BELCHATOW//File Photo / Editing By Germán & CoEU to propose exit from Energy Charter Treaty over climate concerns
The Energy Charter Treaty was established in 1998 to advance investments in the energy sector. Fifty countries, including the European Union member states, have signed it. However, lately, there have been growing concerns about the treaty. It has allowed energy companies to take legal action against governments for policies that negatively impact their investments.
REUTERS By Kate Abnett / Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023BRUSSELS, June 29 (Reuters) - The European Commission is readying a proposal for EU countries to jointly quit an international energy treaty, after some governments already pledged to leave over climate concerns.
The 1998 Energy Charter Treaty, which has around 50 signatories including European Union countries, lets energy companies sue governments over policies that damage their investments - a system initially designed to support investments in the sector.
But in recent years it has been used to challenge policies that require fossil fuel plants to shut, raising concerns in some European capitals that it is an obstacle to addressing climate change.
A Commission spokesperson told Reuters it will make legal proposals for a coordinated EU exit "in the coming weeks", after EU countries - some of which already plan to exit the treaty - could not agree to pass reforms to it.
"As it stands, the treaty is not in line with the EU’s investment policy and law and with the EU's energy and climate goals," the spokesperson said.
Four sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters the EU executive will make the proposal next week. Three of the sources said Brussels had considered a partial exit that would let some countries stay in the treaty, but opted against it over legal concerns.
Pressure has mounted on Brussels to lead an EU-wide exit after Denmark, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain announced they planned to quit the treaty. Italy left in 2016.
But the proposal is likely to be opposed by countries including Cyprus, Hungary and Slovakia, which have said they would prefer to stay in an updated version of the accord.
Any proposal will need backing from a reinforced majority of member states and support from the European Parliament, which has publicly backed the idea.
"A coordinated withdrawal would remove one of the main obstacles to realising the EU's binding climate targets," said Lukas Schaugg, an analyst at the International Institute for Sustainable Development think tank.
Treaty signatories last year negotiated reforms designed to address some of the climate concerns, but which received a mixed reception from EU countries and criticism from campaigners. The reforms would struggle to pass without EU support.
The unreformed treaty has a "sunset clause" that would protect existing fossil fuel investments in Europe for 20 years even after the EU quit. The reformed version would let the EU shorten that to 10 years.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image couetesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & CoInspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…
“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…
The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.
By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023The cruel war that we had to live through during the later phases of the initial wave of the pandemic until the present day has had a profound impact on our endeavors and has destabilized our emotional state. An unprecedented inflationary phenomenon has had a detrimental impact on the most vulnerable members of our society, exacerbating their already marginalized status. We may have inadvertently overlooked the presence of the Covid-19 virus as a result of the exceptional circumstances surrounding this time.
On June 15 and yesterday, “Nebraska Medicine” and “The New York Times” reported that more than 9,747 patients are hospitalized in the United States per week, with 16% of those being ICU patients. The test positivity rate for the week of June 2-8 was 7.2%. When test positivity is above 5%, transmission is considered uncontrolled. Still, since many are using home tests that are not reported through public health or are not testing at all, the official case counts underestimate the actual prevalence of COVID-19.
According to a study published in “Plos Pathogens” by the University of Kent (England) on Friday, 17 November 2019, the initial identification of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurred in Wuhan, China. The composition of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is relatively uncomplicated, consisting of proteins and nucleic acids. It is important to acknowledge that the replication of this virus is contingent upon its ability to exploit the metabolic processes of specific living cells.
One of the most notable consequences resulting from the global outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic is the profound transformation in human emotional behavior. This —-diminutive—- organism evoked a profound sense of fear, a stark reminder of the prevailing sense of isolation and detachment within our technologically advanced society.
In the current digital age, which is marked by the widespread use of technology and online connectivity, traditional forms of displaying affection, such as physical touch and face-to-face interactions, have been replaced by virtual representations and a constant online presence.
The absence of interpersonal interaction can have detrimental consequences on our general state of health, and in severe instances, it may even lead to our demise.
The prevailing state of health can be ascribed to an alleged human mistake that occurred in a laboratory located in the distant province of Wuhan, China, which is widely recognized for its rich historical heritage spanning thousands of years.
The implications of these unknow living conditions extend beyond the scope of human sensory perception and have profound implications for the industrial sector. The mandated restriction on individuals' mobility has impeded their capacity to travel to their workplaces, resulting in a scarcity of crucial raw materials and components. Consequently, the interruption in the production chain impedes its efficient operation, leading to a shortage of crucial commodities necessary for the sustenance of human life.
Furthermore, the insufficient accessibility of crucial goods and the exorbitant expenses linked to global maritime transportation contribute to the prevalence of inflation, a deleterious phenomenon. Additionally, it is anticipated that the inflation rate will attain a minimum of 18% during the last three years. The management of the national economy and household budgets presents significant challenges during the prevailing financial crisis.
Rapid adaptability to change has traditionally been regarded as a commendable human quality…
Why does this phenomenon manifest itself?
The answer to this inquiry is uncomplicated. Human existence does not persist in a perpetual state of either joy or sorrow, nor is it exclusively characterized by a state of stability or instability. Fortunately, life is not defined by such a simplistic nature. On the contrary, the trajectory of life is distinguished by its complex and intricate nature, encompassing a myriad of encounters and mis encounters, along with moments of affection and aversion.
In conclusion, human existence is constantly confronted with unforeseen and profound transformations. As inherently human beings, we possess an innate sense of solidarity within our essence. This sense of community and togetherness helps us navigate the challenges that life throws our way.
The teachings and spirituality of Saint Teresa of Avila, also known as Teresa de Cepeda y Ahumada, a nun who devoted her life to praying for the most vulnerable five centuries ago and was later canonized, profoundly influenced the Wollmer family, owners of Hacienda Santa Teresa, situated in the mountainous Aragua Valley, the heart of Venezuela's sugar industry, they were deeply moved by her teachings and spiritual beliefs, Long before the inception of the corporate social responsibility trend.
“Santa Teresa” represents the most ancient rum brand in Venezuela. The Hacienda Santa Teresa, the site of rum production, has a historical origin dating back to 1796. The Hacienda initially operated as a cultivator of coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane. The production of rum started in 1830 and has continued ever since, despite the company's acknowledgment of various adversities such as war, revolutions, invasions, dictators, and the current pandemic.
The company produces several rum expressions, but only one of them, namely “Santa Teresa 1796 Solera Rum”, is designated for exportation. This expression was first release in 1996 to commemorate the Hacienda's bicentennial. Bacardi Ltd oversees the international management of this one-of-a-kind.
The brand has a long history of community involvement. The organization's most renowned endeavour is the ongoing Project “Alcatraz”. In 2003, a criminal gang unlawfully entered the Hacienda premises and launched a surprise attack on a security guard. When apprehended, the perpetrators were presented with an unconventional option:
Either surrender to the authorities or engage in labour at the Hacienda to restate their transgression.
The offer was accepted, leading to the establishment of Project “Alcatraz”. Since its creation, Project “Alcatraz” has evolved into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to recruiting and rehabilitating those involved in criminal gangs. This program utilizes various strategies, including vocational training, values formation, psychological counselling, formal education, and participation in rugby, to reintegrate these individuals into society. To date, the program has witnessed the participation of numerous young people.
In the summer of 2020, during the hell of the pandemic, following its longstanding commitment to community assistance, the company introduced a “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry. “Santa Teresa” employed a group of 25 bartenders to undertake the task of designing the label for the “Special Edition” expression, starting with Liana Oster, a bartender at the “Dante Bar “ in New York, every participant in the study contributed to the development the brand and subsequently handed it over to the following participant in the sequence.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Pittsburgh's Duquesne Incline ascends Mount Washington as smoke, from Canadian wildfires, hanging over the U.S. Midwest and parts of the East Coast create hazy skies, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S. June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Quinn Glabicki / Editing by Germán & CoCanadian wildfire smoke spreads, 100 million Americans under air-quality alerts
Air-quality alerts lasted until midnight for several states, including Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. The alerts also extended to New York, Washington, and the East Coast.
Reuters By Brendan O'Brien, Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023CHICAGO, June 29 (Reuters) - Murky, dull skies loomed over tens of millions of Americans on Thursday as smoke from prolonged Canadian wildfires drifted across the Midwest and East, causing unhealthy and, in some spots, dangerous conditions.
Air-quality alerts were in effect until midnight for a swath of the United States that extended from Wisconsin and northern Illinois stretching through Michigan and Ohio and extending into New York, Washington and the East Coast, the National Weather Service said.
More than 100 million Americans were urged to limit prolonged outdoor activities, and, if needed, wear a mask if they suffer from pulmonary or respiratory diseases. Children and the elderly were also advised to minimize or avoid strenuous activities.
People living in major U.S. cities such as New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia saw smoky skies that dulled the summer sun as the smell of burning wood lingered in the air.
"Air quality is unhealthy in every corner of the state," New York Governor Kathy Hochul said during a morning press conference, recommending that residents regularly check the air quality in their area. "This is the new normal for New Yorkers."
On Thursday morning, smoke hung over Chicago for the third day in a row. The air quality was "Unhealthy" in the third-largest city in the United States, which was joined by Detroit and Washington D.C. as having the poorest air among major cities on the planet, according to IQAir.com, which tracks pollution.
"The air quality in Chicago has been dreadful, giving me brutal migraines. Feeling better today with my trusty air purifier on full blast. Taking a chill day," said a Twitter user named Skaar.
The air-quality alerts were triggered by drifting smoke from wildfires burning in Canada, which is wrestling with its worst-ever start to wildfire season.
An area of 8 million hectares (19.8 million acres), bigger than West Virginia, has already burned. On Wednesday, there were 477 active blazes, about half which were considered out of control, spread from the Pacific to the Atlantic coasts.
While poor air quality was the concern in the Midwest and East, the U.S. South was again dealing with a brutal heat wave that promised to persist throughout the day on Thursday and into the long Fourth of July holiday weekend.
The heat index - which measures how hot it feels due to the combination of humidity and temperature - was expected to climb to 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) and in some spots as high as 115 degrees F (46 C). The weather service urged people to seek air-conditioned spaces and drink plenty of water.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo / Editing by Germán & CoExclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin
“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…
Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a longtime admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Thursday Putin has been "somewhat weakened" by an aborted mutiny and that now is the time for the United States to try to broker a negotiated peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine.
"I want people to stop dying over this ridiculous war," Trump told Reuters in a telephone interview.
Speaking expansively about foreign policy, the front-runner in opinion polls for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination also said China should be given a 48-hour deadline to get out of what sources familiar with the matter say is a Chinese spy capability on the island of Cuba 90 miles (145 km) off the U.S. coast.
On Ukraine, Trump did not rule out that the Kyiv government might have to concede some territory to Russia in order to stop the war, which began with Russian forces invading Ukraine 16 months ago. He said everything would be "subject to negotiation", if he were president, but that Ukrainians who have waged a vigorous fight to defend their land have "earned a lot of credit."
"I think they would be entitled to keep much of what they've earned and I think that Russia likewise would agree to that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don't have that right now," he said.
U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO allies want Russia out of territory it has seized in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive that has made small gains in driving out Russian forces.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last year proposed a 10-point peace plan, which calls on Russia to withdraw all of its troops.
"I think the biggest thing that the U.S. should be doing right now is making peace - getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace. You can do it," Trump said. "This is the time to do it, to get the two parties together to force peace."
As president, Trump developed friendly relations with Putin, who Biden said on Wednesday has "become a bit of pariah around the world" for invading Ukraine.
Trump said Putin had been damaged by an uprising by the Russian mercenary force, the Wagner Group, and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, last weekend.
"You could say that he's (Putin) still there, he's still strong, but he certainly has been I would say somewhat weakened at least in the minds of a lot of people," he said.
If Putin were no longer in power, however, "you don't know what the alternative is. It could be better, but it could be far worse," Trump said.
As for war crime charges levied against Putin by the International Criminal Court last March, Trump said Putin's fate should be discussed when the war is over "because right now if you bring that topic up you'll never make peace, you'll never make a settlement."
Trump was adamantly opposed to China's spy base on Cuba and said if Beijing refused to accept his 48-hour demand for shutting it down, a Trump administration would impose new tariffs on Chinese goods.
As president, Trump adopted a tougher stance on China while claiming a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping that soured over the coronavirus pandemic.
"I'd give them 48 hours to get out. And if they didn't get out, I'd charge them a 100% tariff on everything they sell to the United States, and they'd be gone within two days. They'd be gone within one hour," Trump said.
Trump was mum on whether the United States would support Taiwan militarily if China invaded the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.
"I don't talk about that. And the reason I don't is because it would hurt my negotiating position," he said. "All I can tell you is for four years, there was no threat. And it wouldn't happen if I were president."
News round-up, June 29, 2023
Quote of the day…
European EV makers are overtaking Tesla - but weak consumer demand is a drag
“Volkswagen sold more electric cars than Tesla in Europe last year in a key sign legacy carmakers have caught up on the California firm's head start - but Joachim Klement of Liberum Capital told Reuters margins are being squeezed across the industry.
Most read…
Big Oil Mulls a Slippery Future
Ask energy executives how much oil the world will need by 2050 and you will get very different opinions
NYT By Carol Ryan, June 29, 2023 China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time
Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined
The Guardian, Amy Hawkins and Rachel Cheung, 29 Jun 2023Explainer: Why the wind power industry has hit turbulence
Is more than evident how unforeseen events can quickly disrupt promising positive trends. The wind power sector is going through a —-perfect storm—- has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in disruptions to the supply chain and project construction delays. Additionally, certain companies have lost government support or subsidies because they failed to meet policy deadlines. This has further complicated the already challenging financing environment. Factors such as increasing energy prices, inflation, and rising interest rates have made securing funding for these projects harder.
REUTERS By Nina Chestney/Editing by Germán & Co, June 26, 2023Wagner shot down 'special' Russian aircraft.
With only 12 planes in its fleet, the Russian military may have to decrease its tasking levels to ensure the remaining aircraft's safety. In high-tempo operations, this loss may affect Russia's ability to coordinate and command its forces.
The Telegrpah / Editing by Germán & Co, NOWHumans have sucked so much water out of the ground that the Earth has tipped
Pumping excessive amounts of water for farming over two decades has caused the planet to tilt more to the east, study says
The Telegraph By Nick Allen, US EDITOR 28 June 2023About 2,150 gigatons of groundwater was extracted from aquifers below the surface between 1993 and 2010 CREDIT: Wild Horizon/Universal Images Group / editing by Germán & CoQuote of the day…
European EV makers are overtaking Tesla - but weak consumer demand is a drag
“Volkswagen sold more electric cars than Tesla in Europe last year in a key sign legacy carmakers have caught up on the California firm's head start - but Joachim Klement of Liberum Capital told Reuters margins are being squeezed across the industry.
Most read…
Big Oil Mulls a Slippery Future
Ask energy executives how much oil the world will need by 2050 and you will get very different opinions
NYT By Carol Ryan, June 29, 2023 China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time
Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined
The Guardian, Amy Hawkins and Rachel Cheung, 29 Jun 2023Explainer: Why the wind power industry has hit turbulence
Is more than evident how unforeseen events can quickly disrupt promising positive trends. The wind power sector is going through a —-perfect storm—- has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in disruptions to the supply chain and project construction delays. Additionally, certain companies have lost government support or subsidies because they failed to meet policy deadlines. This has further complicated the already challenging financing environment. Factors such as increasing energy prices, inflation, and rising interest rates have made securing funding for these projects harder.
REUTERS By Nina Chestney/Editing by Germán & Co, June 26, 2023Wagner shot down 'special' Russian aircraft.
With only 12 planes in its fleet, the Russian military may have to decrease its tasking levels to ensure the remaining aircraft's safety. In high-tempo operations, this loss may affect Russia's ability to coordinate and command its forces.
The Telegrpah / Editing by Germán & Co, NOWHumans have sucked so much water out of the ground that the Earth has tipped
Pumping excessive amounts of water for farming over two decades has caused the planet to tilt more to the east, study says
The Telegraph By Nick Allen, US EDITOR 28 June 2023At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Image editing by Germán & CoBig Oil Mulls a Slippery Future
Ask energy executives how much oil the world will need by 2050 and you will get very different opinions
NYT By Carol Ryan, June 29, 2023 Some people in the oil business insist that demand for the fuel will stay steady for decades. PHOTO: ELI HARTMAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS
When is it game over for oil? Don’t expect a clear answer from the people with the most to lose from a shift to cleaner fuels.
Within energy circles, estimates of how much oil will be needed in 2050 range anywhere from 80% less than today to business as usual. Investors have the difficult job of betting which companies are on the wrong side of the most important trend for the sector in decades.
At an energy conference this week, Haitham al-Ghais, secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, repeated the cartel’s view that global demand for oil will hit 110 million barrels a day by 2045—as far out as OPEC currently projects. This is roughly a 10% increase from current rates. Natural gas, renewable power and hydrogen will all play bigger roles, but oil will remain center stage.
If OPEC is right, it is bad news for efforts to limit climate change. For the world to reach its net-zero target and restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, demand must fall below 30 million barrels a day by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.
Most U.S. majors are also in the “high demand” camp, according to Alexander Schay, managing director at the energy consulting firm WK Associates and co-author of a Securities and Exchange Commission comment that compiled 2050 oil forecasts.
Exxon Mobil said in a recent filing that the chances of the world getting to net zero are low because of the drop in living standards it would cause. The company expects global oil demand to still be roughly 100 million barrels a day by 2050 and is betting that technologies such as carbon capture and storage, as well as methane abatement, will allow the world to use fossil fuels for decades to come.
European oil producers are considering the possibility that events move faster. Shell’s latest energy security report looks at two scenarios. Even with no new climate policies, it thinks demand for oil will fall around 10% by the middle of the century. And it sees a plunge if the world gets really serious about reducing emissions.
BP has looked at two “what if” scenarios in addition to the most aggressive net-zero one. It estimates that oil production will decline by roughly 25% based on trends it is already seeing in the market, or close to 60% in its “accelerated” scenario in which climate regulations get tighter.
But neither European company is seriously preparing for these challenging outcomes yet. Both Shell and BP recently reversed plans to cut oil production aggressively this decade, indicating that they will reduce supply once demand from customers tails off.
With demand for oil still growing, higher projections do look more realistic right now. The risk for executives hoping this won’t change is that they are wrong-footed by harsher regulations, wild-card technologies or a surge in destructive weather events that hammers home the need to cut emissions fast.
All of this underlines the intense uncertainty that energy bosses face, even looking a few years ahead. At Shell’s investor day this month, Chief Executive Wael Sawan told shareholders, “I would be lying to you if I pretended to know where various markets that we’re looking at are going to go in the 2026, 2027, 2028 period.”
One important swing factor that investors can watch is how fast oil demand for road transportation falls. This will depend on how fuel-efficient gas-engined cars become and how many drivers buy electric vehicles. EVs currently make up 16% of passenger-car sales globally. The data provider EV-volumes.com expects this share to rise rapidly to 68% by 2035.
Adoption will take longer if electric cars remain unaffordable for many consumers, which depends in part on supplies of battery materials such as lithium. It is also unclear whether creaking electricity infrastructure can cope with the level of electrification needed to wean the world off fossil fuels. Bottlenecks in supply chains and permitting are delaying installments of new wind and solar power capacity, especially in Europe.
Another trend to watch is whether rising demand for energy in emerging markets can be offset with efficiency measures, such as LED lighting or more efficient air conditioners. And it isn’t just energy: As the middle classes swell, consumers are likely to spend more on packaged goods. That will send demand for oil-based inputs to make virgin plastic soaring, barring better recycling rates or bans on single-use plastic.
Shareholders don’t look convinced by arguments that oil still has a long road ahead. According to the investment research firm New Constructs, the share prices of Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil and Chevron all imply that the companies’ profits will permanently decline from today’s levels.
The overall impression is of an oil industry in limbo, waiting to see what happens next.
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Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU
Kela photovoltaic power station on the Yalong River in Garzê Tibetan autonomous prefecture, China. Photograph: China News ServiceChina on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time
Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined
The Guardian, Amy Hawkins and Rachel Cheung, 29 Jun 2023China is shoring up its position as the world leader in renewable power and potentially outpacing its own ambitious energy targets, a report has found.
China is set to double its capacity and produce 1,200 gigawatts of energy through wind and solar power by 2025, reaching its 2030 goal five years ahead of time, according to the report by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO that tracks operating utility-scale wind and solar farms as well as future projects in the country.
It says that as of the first quarter of the year, China’s utility-scale solar capacity has reached 228GW, more than that of the rest of the world combined. The installations are concentrated in the country’s north and north-west provinces, such as Shanxi, Xinjiang and Hebei.
‘Insanely cheap energy’: how solar power continues to shock the world
In addition, the group identified solar farms under construction that could add another 379GW in prospective capacity, triple that of the US and nearly double that of Europe.
China has also made huge strides in wind capacity: its combined onshore and offshore capacity now surpasses 310GW, double its 2017 level and roughly equivalent to the next top seven countries combined. With new projects in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu and along coastal areas, China is on course to add another 371GW before 2025, increasing the global wind fleet by nearly half.
“This new data provides unrivalled granularity about China’s jaw-dropping surge in solar and wind capacity,” said Dorothy Mei, a project manager at Global Energy Monitor. “As we closely monitor the implementation of prospective projects, this detailed information becomes indispensable in navigating the country’s energy landscape.”
The findings are in line with previous reports and government data released this year, which predicted that China could easily surpass its target of supplying a third of its power consumption through renewable sources by 2030.
China’s green energy drive is part of its effort to meet dual carbon goals set out in 2020. As the world’s second largest economy, it is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and accounts for half of the world’s coal consumption. The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, pledged in 2020 to achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
A coal-fired power plant in Shanghai. China approved more coal power in the first three months of 2023 than in the whole of 2021. Photograph: Aly Song/Reuters
The report attributed China’s remarkable progress in expanding its non-fossil energy sources to the range of policies its government has implemented, including generous subsidies to incentivise developers as well as regulations to put pressure on provincial governments and generating companies.
China began operating the world’s largest hybrid solar-hydro power plant in the Tibetan plateau on Sunday. Named Kela, the plant can produce 2bn kW hours of electricity annually, equal to the energy consumption of more than 700,000 households.
It is only the first phase of a massive clean energy project in the Yalong River basin. The installation has a 20GW capacity now and is expected to reach about 50GW by 2030.
Despite China’s careful planning, its energy transition is not without its challenges. In recent years, record heatwaves and drought crippled hydropower stations, resulting in power crunches that brought factories to a halt. An outdated electricity grid and inflexibility in transferring energy between regions add to the uncertainty.
The Kela plant is located in the sparsely populated west of the country, where more than three-quarters of coal, wind and solar power is generated. But the vast majority of energy consumption happens in the east. Transporting energy thousands of miles across the country results in inefficiencies.
The way China’s grid is organised can incentivise building coal plants around renewable generators. Much of the new renewable capacity is not connected to the local energy supply and often bundled with coal power to be transmitted to areas of higher demand.
More coal power was approved in the first three months of 2023 than in the whole of 2021.
“China is making strides,” said Martin Weil, a researcher at Global Energy Monitor and an author of the report. “But with coal still holding sway as the dominant power source, the country needs bolder advancements in energy storage and green technologies for a secure energy future.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image by Germán & CoExplainer: Why the wind power industry has hit turbulence
Is more than evident how unforeseen events can quickly disrupt promising positive trends. The wind power sector is going through a —-perfect storm—- has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in disruptions to the supply chain and project construction delays. Additionally, certain companies have lost government support or subsidies because they failed to meet policy deadlines. This has further complicated the already challenging financing environment. Factors such as increasing energy prices, inflation, and rising interest rates have made securing funding for these projects harder.
REUTERS By Nina Chestney/Editing by Germán & Co, June 26, 2023LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - Problems in Siemens Energy's (ENR1n.DE) wind turbine division that could cost more than a billion euros ($1.09 billion) to fix have shaken investor confidence in the wider industry and last week prompted a sell-off in wind companies' shares.
Over the last two decades, the industry has grown fast, lowered technology costs to on a par or even cheaper than fossil fuels in some parts of the world and increased efficiency through bigger and bigger turbines.
According to the Statistical Review of World Energy report on Monday, global wind and solar power grew to a record share of 12% of power generation last year, surpassing nuclear.
The Global Wind Energy Council said earlier this year that a record 680 gigawatts (GW) of wind energy capacity is expected to be installed by 2027.
But the industry has had a tough few years.
SUPPLY CHAIN
The COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 led to lockdowns, decreased industrial activity and reduced global energy demand.
In the wind sector, as in other industries, restrictions on movement triggered supply chain disruption and delays in project construction.
Limits on the number of workers allowed on site and delays in components from China and elsewhere meant that some wind developers had to delay or even cancel projects.
Some firms also missed policy deadlines that meant that they lost out on government support or subsidies for which they previously qualified, the International Energy Agency said.
The war in Ukraine has also created logistics and supply chain issues, aggravated in some cases by the impact of sanctions.
ECONOMICS
Despite mounting pressure to combat climate change by moving to renewable sources, financing projects has been a challenge.
The war in Ukraine last year led to higher energy prices and this fuelled rises in inflation and interest rates.
But the expected revenues of those planning to build wind turbines have not risen in tandem. Many governments index the prices paid for wind energy, usually through auctions, which are often too low, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said.
The rise in commodity prices, such as steel, also increased the price of wind turbines by up to 40% over the last two years, industry body WindEurope said earlier this year.
Wind turbine manufacturers - unable to pass on higher costs to customers who placed orders two or three years ago - have tried to mitigate the impact of higher inflation and pressure on profit margins by raising prices.
COMPETITION
As more governments have announced ambitious climate targets, pressure on companies to increase renewables development has increased.
Established wind manufacturers, already competing with each other to drive down component and technology costs and increase wind farms' efficiency with huge turbines, also face new entrants.
Traditional wind project developers, such as utilities, increasingly face competition from oil and gas majors seeking to diversify their portfolios, who have often outbid them in wind tenders and auctions.
Some oil and gas companies, however, are also struggling with poor returns from renewables while oil and gas profits have hit record levels in response to high energy prices.
COMPONENTS
Among the issues which arise from operating wind turbines, wear and tear on turbine blades over time can lead to erosion.
The increasing size of blades on turbines also raises the risk of lightning strikes and repairs.
For offshore wind, harsh weather conditions can also result in corrosion of foundations or of the turbine.
Leading wind turbine maker Vestas flagged quality issues with turbine blades in their onshore fleet in 2020 and provided an extra 600 million euros to fix them. Its shares fell more than 6% on Friday, while shares in Siemens Energy, the second biggest wind turbine maker, sank 37%.
Most of the problems of Siemens Energy's wind unit Siemens Gamesa concern its onshore turbine fleet, where the group has discovered quality issues in certain components, including rotor blades and bearings.
Siemens Energy said that 15%-30% of the fleet could be affected by the problems, which were exposed during a review that noted "abnormal vibration behaviour of some components" and unspecified problems around product design.
Dealing with issues could cost more than 1 billion euros, it said.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by The Telegraph editing by Germán & CoWagner shot down 'special' Russian aircraft.
With only 12 planes in its fleet, the Russian military may have to decrease its tasking levels to ensure the remaining aircraft's safety. In high-tempo operations, this loss may affect Russia's ability to coordinate and command its forces.
The Telegrpah / Editing by Germán & Co, NOWAccording to an exclusive note, post of “The Telegraph” 29 minutes ago, the British Ministry of Defence has said that one of the Russian warplanes reportedly shot down during the Wagner rebellion was a "special mission aircraft" with a critical role in Russia's war in Ukraine,
In its latest intelligence update, the defence ministry said that on Saturday, air defence forces of the Wagner group had reportedly shot down an II-22M aircraft, part of a relatively small fleet of 12 "heavily utilised for airborne command and control, and radio relay tasks.
The ministry warned that the loss of the craft could have a longer-term impact on Russia's air capability, as "there is a possibility that current tasking levels may have to be reduced to safely manage the remaining fleet."
"This will likely undermine Russia's ability to command and coordinate its forces, particularly during periods of high tempo operations."
About 2,150 gigatons of groundwater was extracted from aquifers below the surface between 1993 and 2010 CREDIT: Wild Horizon/Universal Images Group Humans have sucked so much water out of the ground that the Earth has tipped
Pumping excessive amounts of water for farming over two decades has caused the planet to tilt more to the east, study says
The Telegraph By Nick Allen, US EDITOR 28 June 2023The tilt of the Earth has shifted because of the vast quantity of groundwater humans have sucked out of it over the past two decades, according to scientists.
Pumping water out of the ground for drinking and farming redistributed such a large mass that the Earth’s tilt moved by 31.5 inches to the east, toward Iceland, between 1993 and 2010.
According to the study, published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal, the planet’s north-south axis has been tipping at a rate of about 1.7 inches per year.
Scientists described the redistribution of water on the planet as “like adding a tiny bit of weight to a spinning top – the Earth spins a little differently as water is moved around”.
Prof Ki-Weon Seo, a geophysicist at Seoul National University who led the study, said: “Earth’s rotational pole actually changes a lot. Our study shows that among climate-related causes, the redistribution of groundwater actually has the largest impact on the drift of the rotational pole.
“We have affected Earth systems in various ways. People need to be aware of that.
“I’m very glad to find the unexplained cause of the rotation pole drift. On the other hand, as a resident of Earth and a father, I’m concerned and surprised to see that pumping groundwater is another source of sea-level rise.”
Why the Earth’s axis has shifted
Sum of observed polar motion excitation trend contributors…
*Estimated polar motion excitation without groundwater storage changes
*Observed trend of polar motion excitation
*Estimated polar motion excitation with groundwater storage changes
Between 1993 and 2010, about 2,150 gigatons of groundwater was extracted from aquifers below the surface, enough to fill Lake Victoria in Africa.
The Earth spins at about 1,000 mph and the largest contributor to the movement of the axis is flow in convection movements in the molten rock, well below the surface.
However, the new study showed that the removal of groundwater was the second largest contributor.
The fact that water removal could change the rotation of the planet was first discovered seven years ago, but has now been measured.
Surendra Adhikari, a research scientist at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who published a 2016 paper on water redistribution impacting rotational drift, said: “They’ve quantified the role of groundwater pumping on polar motion, and it’s pretty significant.”
In the new study, researchers created models of changes in the wobble of the Earth’s rotational pole and the movement of water.
To begin with, they looked at only the movement of ice sheets and glaciers, before adding in different scenarios of groundwater redistribution.
The model only matched the observed polar drift once the researchers included the 2,150 gigatons of groundwater redistribution.
They also found the location of the groundwater contributes to how much it could change polar drift.
The fact that water removal could change the rotation of the planet was first discovered seven years ago CREDIT: Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images
Redistributing water from the mid-latitudes has a larger impact on the movement of the rotational pole.
Water being redistributed in western North America and northwestern India, both at mid-latitudes, had a significant impact.
Prof Seo said that attempts to slow the extraction of groundwater depletion in those regions could theoretically alter the drift of the rotational pole, but only if such conservation approaches were sustained for decades.
The rotational pole usually changes by several metres a year owing to other factors including the mantle flow.
That means changes due to the pumping of groundwater would not lead to a shifting of the seasons.
However, when looked at on geologic time scales, polar drift could have an impact on the climate, the scientists said.
They will continue to look into previous decades to see how much groundwater extraction has affected the Earth’s rotation over a longer period.
Prof Seo said: “Polar motion data are available from as early as the late 19th century.”
News round-up, June 28, 2023
Editorial…
The "Wagner's Little Mad Army" and Russia's Cryptic Summer Equinox of 2023
What It’s really unleash —2023 Russian Equinox started — is still in limbo, but there is no doubt that it was not a “coup”. In fact, all signs point to a "putsch," a "self-coup," or a "Röhm purge."
According to the Reuters and New York Times report from today, the current Russian Summer Equinox seems comparable to a "Röhm purge", and the outcome could be the same as Nicholas II and Rasputin fate.
Germán & CoMost read…
The Spying Scandal Inside One of America’s Biggest Power Companies
A private investigator surveilled Southern Co.’s CEO, prompting an internal investigation into whether it was commissioned by another executive
WSJ BY KATHERINE BLUNT, JUNE 28, 2023 European Green Pact under threat after vote in EU Parliament
On Tuesday, the European Legislative Assembly's Environment Committee voted to reject the Nature Restoration Bill as the right is trying to convince governments on its side to call for a pause in the implementation of the Green Pact.
LE MONDE BY VIRGINIE MALINGRE(BRUSSELS, EUROPE BUREAU), TODAYImage editing by Germán & CoEditorial…
The "Wagner's Little Mad Army" and Russia's Cryptic Summer Equinox of 2023
What It’s really unleash —2023 Russian Equinox started — is still in limbo, but there is no doubt that it was not a “coup”. In fact, all signs point to a "putsch," a "self-coup," or a "Röhm purge."
According to the Reuters and New York Times report from today, the current Russian Summer Equinox seems comparable to a "Röhm purge", and the outcome could be the same as Nicholas II and Rasputin fate.
Germán & CoMost read…
The "Wagner's Little Mad Army" and Russia's Cryptic Summer Equinox of 2023
What It’s really unleash —2023 Russian Equinox started — is still in limbo, but there is no doubt that it was not a “coup”. In fact, all signs point to a "putsch," a "self-coup," or a "Röhm purge."
By Germán & Co, June 28, 2023The Spying Scandal Inside One of America’s Biggest Power Companies
A private investigator surveilled Southern Co.’s CEO, prompting an internal investigation into whether it was commissioned by another executive
WSJ By Katherine Blunt, June 28, 2023 European Green Pact under threat after vote in EU Parliament
On Tuesday, the European Legislative Assembly's Environment Committee voted to reject the Nature Restoration Bill as the right is trying to convince governments on its side to call for a pause in the implementation of the Green Pact.
Le Monde By Virginie Malingre(Brussels, Europe bureau), todayAt the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.
Image editing by Germán & CoThe "Wagner's Little Mad Army" and Russia's Cryptic Summer Equinox of 2023
What It’s really unleash —2023 Russian Equinox started — is still in limbo, but there is no doubt that it was not a “coup”. In fact, all signs point to a "putsch," a "self-coup," or a "Röhm purge."
By Germán & Co, June 28, 2023A "putsch" is a political and military maneuver carried out by a minority group with the goal of overthrowing a government or gaining control. In 1960-61, French soldiers, especially the legionnaires, were perplexed by President de Gaulle's proposal to abandon Algeria. Algeria had been a part of France since 1848. Despite the military victories achieved between 1958 and 1960, the soldiers were confused. In May 1958, the French Army successfully staged a coup in Algiers to install de Gaulle as President and maintain French control over Algeria. The Putsch —des généraux—, also known as the “April 1961 Generals' Putsch of Algiers”, was an unsuccessful military coup aimed at preserving French Algeria, the insurrections group was led by Challe, a French legionnaire.
A “self-coup”, also known as an autocoup (derived from the Spanish term "autogolpe"), or coup from the top, refers to a type of coup d'état wherein the leader of a nation, who initially assumed power through legitimate channels, attempts to retain power through unlawful methods. The leader has the potential to dissolve or incapacitate the national legislature, thereby unlawfully acquiring extraordinary powers that are not typically granted under normal circumstances. Other potential measures could involve the nullification of the nation's constitution, the suspension of civil courts, and the assumption of dictatorial powers by the head of government.
The “Röhm-Putsch” is a disinformation strategy in which false information about an ongoing coup was purposefully disseminated in order to justify violent acts (Assassinating the Insurgents). The Röhm-Putsch, also known as the Night of the Long Knives, occurred in Germany in 1934 and had significant political ramifications. Adolf Hitler and the Schutzstaffel carried out a purge of the Sturmabteilung (SA) leadership (SS).
1991 failed Soviet coup marked —decisive moment—
The hardliners within the Communist Party assumed power over Gorbachev and orchestrated a coup d'état due to their perception of diminishing authority. Their actions can be seen as a desperate attempt to regain control over the nation and impede Gorbachev's reform agenda.
The coup took place amidst a period of economic and social turmoil in the Soviet Union, which left a significant portion of the populace disenchanted and disheartened with the government. Gorbachev had devised a dual-pronged reform strategy with the objective of modernizing both the Soviet economy and political structure. The prolonged suppression of the freedom of speech and expression resulted in a surge of social upheaval, as a significant number of individuals demanded greater political autonomy and participation in the governance of their nation.
“Nevertheless, their strategy had unintended consequences as widespread protests erupted across the Soviet Union, with the populace mobilizing to demand the liberation of Gorbachev and the reinstatement of democratic governance. Ultimately, the attempted coup d'état was unsuccessful, leading to the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 31, 1991.
The occurrence of that summer marked the end of a significant era and the beginning of a new chapter in the historical trajectory of Russia. The collapse of the Soviet Union had profound and far-reaching consequences for the international community, as it signified the conclusion of the Cold War and inaugurated a new era of global politics. (2)
Wagners Demands to the State of the Russian Federation...
Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Yevgeny Prigozhin was born on June 1, 1961, in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg), Soviet Union, has been a subject of interest in academic circles. His mother, Violetta Prigozhina, provided financial support for him and his sick grandmother by working at a nearby hospital, as his father died early.
It is noteworthy that Prigozhin's paternal and maternal lineage can be traced back to Jewish ancestry. During his formative years, he harbored aspirations of becoming a professional cross-country skier and subsequently enrolled in renowned athletics boarding school, from which he successfully completed his studies in 1977.
However, his professional trajectory in sports proved to be unsuccessful in the end. In 1990, Prigozhin commenced vending hot dogs at the Apraksin Dvor open-air market in Leningrad, in collaboration with his mother and stepfather.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Prigozhin initiated or participated in numerous entrepreneurial ventures. In 1995, Mr. Prigozhin commenced his foray into the restaurant industry.
The mercenary group leader is a key figure in Russia's escalating domestic conflict.
During the conflict in Ukraine, the paramilitary force experienced a significant expansion, with tens of thousands of combatants under its command. Instances of conflict have arisen between Prigozhin and high-ranking military officials in Russia. He has produced videos that challenge Russia's portrayal of a triumphant military campaign. He frequently claims that his forces have played a leading role in the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, they have expressed doubts regarding the capabilities of the Russian military, specifically directing harsh criticism towards the Minister of Defense, Sergei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu.
“For Prigozhin It is worth noting that Shoigu is known for his close relationship with President Vladimir Putin, whom he considers a trusted confidant. Shoigu was a member of President Boris Yeltsin's inner circle of advisors, like President Vladimir Putin. It is worth mentioning that President Boris Yeltsin was betrayed by his Dauphin, i.e. Vladimir Putin on the same night he was elected premier and this made it unjustifiable that Yeltsin had deposited his succession in his hands four months earlier.
In addition to the criticisms, Prigozhin further escalated tensions in May by releasing a video depicting deceased individuals in military attire and denouncing the leadership for their lack of preparedness.
What is Prigozhin's relationship with Putin?
Putin and Prigozhin hail from the same hometown of St. Petersburg. Putin rose from KGB insider to Russian leader, while Prigozhin served a decade in prison as a teenager before starting a hot dog stand.
During the first decade of the 21st century, Prigozhin established a closer relationship with President Vladimir Putin. In 2003, he left his business partnerships and proceeded to establish independent restaurants. It is worth mentioning that Concord Catering, a company owned by Prigozhin, has been successful in securing multiple government contracts. In 2012, a contract was awarded to him for the provision of meals to the Russian military, with a total value of US$1.2 billion for a duration of one year.
He quickly gained influence in hospitality and caught Putin's attention. Prigozhin earned the nickname "Putin's chef" for assisting in serving state dinners, including one with then-President George W. Bush in 2006, while Putin was in the highest echelons of the Russian government. Putin provided state-funded loans to help Prigozhin open a school-lunch factory. Prigozhin partially owned Concord Management and Consulting, which was suspected of funding pro-Trump trolling during the 2016 election.
What drove Prigozhin's actions?
In a video on Telegram, Prigozhin criticized Russia's leadership for starting the war and admitted that Ukrainian forces were successfully pushing back against the Russian army. On Friday, Prigozhin claimed that Russian military leaders had ordered strikes on his men, resulting in thousands of deaths.
Prigozhin claimed that the war was a chance for scumbags to display their military might and for the defense minister to get promoted.
Russia’s response?
Russian officials launched a criminal probe against Prigozhin for his controversial statement. A Russian military leader warned of a "state coup."
State officials believe that Prigozhin's statement and actions could incite armed civil conflict in Russia.
Who is the much-hated defense minister for Prigozhin?
Serguei Kuzhugetovich Shoigu, the Minister of Defense, is a multilingual individual and a talented artist. He has achieved a remarkable career progression within the communist party, starting from a lower position and advancing to a higher position.
The bad news for Prigozhin is that Shoigu has been close to President Vladimir Putin since 2008, whom he considers a trusted confidant. In addition, he was a member of President Boris Yeltsin's inner circle of advisors, like President Vladimir Putin. Shoigu was born on May 21, 1955, in Chadan, Tuvan Autonomous Oblast, which is his birthplace.
Shoigu has a diverse ethnic heritage. His mother is of Russian origin but has Ukrainian roots, while his father is a newspaper editor with Tuvan ancestry. Alexandra Shoigu resides in Kadiivka. She became a member of the Tuva Regional Council of People's Deputies, and his father was a prominent figure in the Communist power structure of the Tuvan Republic. Everything indicates that Prigozhin miscalculated politically by demanding the removal of such a notorious defense minister.
In this unexpected and extraordinary performance, two political figures take the stage.
If we're talking about two —political animals— with battle scars from the countless political conflicts they've experienced.
The first...
The rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan…
President Erdogan's rise to prominence is a compelling story that began with modest beginnings of selling lemonade and sesame buns. For an extended period, he has been a vocal proponent of Islamist causes, concurrently demonstrating a proclivity to stifle his detractors and adversaries and assert Turkey's influence as a regional hegemon. Despite causing division within his population, Erdogan has consistently exhibited his proficiency in winning elections, thereby earning him the endearing title of "reis" or "chief" from his devoted followers. The culmination of his political career resulted in his status as a powerful figure, leading Turkey for a period of twenty years.
Despite encountering numerous crises and accusations of worsening Turkey's already dire cost-of-living situation, Erdogan has emerged victorious in the 2023 presidential election.
Putin-Erdogan relationship complex, involving Russia-Turkey dynamic interplay.
A $100 billion deal to… And all this for what?
The transportation of Gazprom natural gas through a hub in Turkey, which is financed by Russia, as well as the trade of strategic weapons and their mutual participation in conflicts, have substantial implications for both nations and the global political environment.
And what is its goal?
Prevent Finland and Sweden from joining NATO...
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convened in Sochi, Russia for a meeting. During these discussions, the two leaders have augmented their partnership and reached a consensus on economic collaboration that has the potential to reach a value of $100 billion.
The current relationship between Erdogan and Putin has elicited concerns from Erdogan's NATO allies, who are apprehensive that Erdogan's actions may provide Putin with a substantial means of circumventing the sanctions that have been imposed against him by the West.
The have raised doubts regarding Erdogan's genuine allegiance, which extends beyond his personal interests.
Despite the existing concerns, the current relationship between Putin and Erdogan seems to be mutually advantageous. Putin derives advantages from the sale of energy and arms, in addition to investment prospects. Furthermore, the affiliation of Russia with a member of NATO offers significant strategic benefits. Turkey is currently experiencing several benefits, including cash infusions, access to affordable energy, global significance, a vast export market, and apparent support from Russia in its endeavors to quell Kurdish separatism in Syria. It is noteworthy to mention that the two leaders maintain a relationship of both friendship and enmity, commonly referred to as "frenemies," which is of significant magnitude. Both individuals exhibit characteristics of authoritarian leaders, having accumulated significant authority and maintaining a closed circle of advisors. Additionally, they are known for their assertive and uncompromising demeanor. The bilateral relationship between the two nations is contingent upon the rapport established between their respective leaders. It is noteworthy that the discussions held between them are treated with utmost confidentiality.
It is evident that President Erdogan could not passively accept the risk of losing all the geopolitical and economic gains he had obtained from President Putin.
According to reports, during a complex phone call between the Turkish president and his Russian counterpart, it is claimed that the former emphasized the importance of utilizing —common sense—.
The second one is…
Who is Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus?
He has been in power since 1994. Alexander Lukashenko was born in northern Belarus after World War II. His father left the family, leaving him and his mother to fend for themselves. Alexander Lukashenko's early dedication to Leninist ideology led him to attend the Mogilev Teaching Institute after high school. Before politics, he was in the Soviet Army and directed a state-owned farm. Lukashenko spent three years as a political officer in the Soviet Border Guards after graduation. Lukashenko married his childhood sweetheart upon returning home. Lukashenko led the Communist Youth Wing's Komsomol. Lukashenko joined a state-owned farm to support his family.
Lukashenko had a successful career managing a construction materials plant and state-run farm complex before becoming a deputy to the Supreme Soviet of the Republic of Belarus. He later chaired an anti-corruption committee.
A year after the Soviet Union's collapse, Lukashenko's anti-corruption stance led to his unexpected win in Belarus' first independent presidential election. Lukashenko has held onto power for decades by relying on his ideological beliefs from his youth,
Europe’s last autocrat leads Belarus. Lukashenko has been president for almost 29 years, starting in July 1994.Lukashenko, 68, started his sixth term after the controversial August 2020 Belarusian presidential election. Western countries deemed the Belarus election fraudulent, leading to widespread protests by hundreds of thousands of Belarusians against Lukashenko's power grab.
“Lukashenko is a close ally of Putin…
Putin offered military support to Lukashenko after the 2020 Belarusian election. Lukashenko backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and allowed the Russian military to enter Ukraine through Belarus.
In reciprocity, Lukashenko acts as a mediator..., preventing Russian bloodshed.
Today, Reuters published a note stating that Lukashenko claimed Putin wanted to "wipe out" Wagner chief Prigozhin during a mutiny attempt. And New York Times, post at Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military.
In response to what the Kremlin portrayed as a mutiny that could have led to civil war, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that he persuaded Russian President Vladimir Putin not to eliminate mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Putin initially promised to put down the mutiny, comparing it to the wartime chaos that led to the 1917 revolution and subsequent civil war. However, a deal was struck shortly afterwards that allowed Prigozhin and some of his fighters to relocate to Belarus. On Tuesday, Prigozhin flew from Russia to Belarus.
During his conversation with Putin on Saturday, Lukashenko used Russian criminal slang, using a phrase that means to kill someone, like the English phrase "wipe out."
I also understood that a harsh decision had been made (which was implied in Putin's address) to eliminate the mutineers," Lukashenko stated during a meeting with army officials and journalists on Tuesday, as reported by Belarusian state media.
"I advised Putin to take his time."
He said to me, "Listen, Sasha, it's pointless." "He refuses to answer calls and avoids all conversations. “Putin used the same Russian verb in 1999 to describe his determination to eliminate Chechen militants, stating that he would "wipe them out in the shithouse."
These remarks have since become a widely quoted symbol of his strong personality.
The Kremlin has not yet commented on Lukashenko's remarks, which provide a rare glimpse into the discussions within the Kremlin as Russia, as stated by Putin, faced a level of turmoil not witnessed in decades.
Lukashenko remark at this is the most highly trained unit in the army," quoted Lukashenko by the BelTA state agency.
"Who would argue with this?"
Later, Lukashenko informed his military that "people do not comprehend that we are taking a practical approach to this... Wagner, who has experienced it firsthand, will provide us with insights on the effectiveness of different weapons - what worked well and what didn't. Prigozhin stopped what he referred to as the "march of justice" on Moscow from the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, which is about 200 kilometers away from the capital, after Lukashenko intervened.
Conclusions
Based on the information provided in the Reuters and New York Times report, it can be inferred that the current Russian Summer Equinox bears similarities to a "Röhm purge" that is currently in progress.
The definitive outcome of the Russian Summer Equinox provides strong indications regarding the fate of Nicholas II and Rasputin, with a significant level of certainty.
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ILLUSTRATION BY ALEXANDRA CITRIN-SAFADI/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL; IMAGES FROM AN INVESTIGATIVE REPORT DOCUMENTING TOM FANNING’S SURVEILLANCEThe Spying Scandal Inside One of America’s Biggest Power Companies
A private investigator surveilled Southern Co.’s CEO, prompting an internal investigation into whether it was commissioned by another executive
WSJ By Katherine Blunt, June 28, 2023 On a late spring day in 2017, a private investigator parked outside a fitness center in an Atlanta strip mall and covertly recorded video of a personal trainer as she entered her business.
Forty-five minutes later, the investigator took photos as the woman returned to her car, stowed her gym bag and drove away. He next followed her for 25 minutes to the home of her then-boyfriend, Tom Fanning, who, as chief executive of Southern Co., SO -1.57%decrease; red down pointing triangle had for years been one of the energy industry’s most powerful figures.
The following day, while parked in Fanning’s neighborhood, the investigator photographed the executive running up a hill near his house. The investigator compiled the innocuous findings from his four days of surveillance into an eight-page report and billed his client more than $6,800 for the work.
Atlanta-based Southern, one of the largest utility companies in the U.S. and one of the most prominent corporate brands across the Southeast, has been bedeviled for much of the past year by the peculiar espionage effort, which led to an internal investigation but no public explanation.
Word of the surveillance surfaced last summer in a lawsuit between consultants in a firm that for decades has done work for Alabama Power, a Southern subsidiary. One of them alleged that, at the direction of Alabama Power officials, the other consultant had ordered surveillance of Southern executives in order to possibly gain internal leverage.
When Fanning learned of the effort last summer, he was incensed, according to people familiar with the matter. He hired outside law firms to probe the allegation that someone within Alabama Power was behind it.
Now, nearly a year after the spying became public, the investigation is largely complete—and the company says it has no idea who ordered the operation or why.
Fanning, 66, retired last month after more than a decade atop the massive utility company. He remains Southern’s executive chairman. Last winter, the CEO of Alabama Power stepped down.
The episode marks a bizarre coda to Fanning’s career, and has contributed to turmoil within Southern, which operates utilities in Mississippi and Georgia as well as Alabama.
The company’s board of directors, which has been briefed on the results of the investigation, has discussed how to implement better oversight of Southern’s operating units and the consultants they engage, according to people familiar with the matter.
“We conducted a thorough internal investigation of this matter and were unable to substantiate the allegation that the highly inappropriate surveillance of Tom Fanning was authorized by any employee of the company,” a Southern spokesman said in a statement. “We have moved on.”
Through the spokesman, Fanning declined to comment.
In November, about three months after the start of the investigation, Mark Crosswhite, then CEO of Alabama Power, abruptly announced plans to retire at the end of the year. The 60-year-old told employees he wanted to spend more time with his family.
Crosswhite had been a serious contender to succeed Fanning as Southern CEO, people familiar with the matter said. The people said the surveillance allegations and subsequent investigation played a role in his decision to leave.
Crosswhite, who stayed on as a consultant and, according to securities filings, drops off the company payroll at the end of this month, didn’t respond to requests for comment.
The Southern spokesman said the spying allegations played “zero factor” in succession planning.
Southern recently reached a milestone when one of two new reactors at a nuclear-power plant in Georgia produced electricity for the first time. The reactors, the first in the U.S. to be built from scratch in decades, are billions over budget and years behind schedule.
Among other things, the alleged motivation for the spying was based in part on issues related to the plant’s troubles.
The allegations spilled out of a lawsuit filed in 2021 stemming from an acrimonious split between Joe Perkins and Jeff Pitts, who had worked together at an Alabama-based consulting firm called Matrix. Pitts alleged in court filings that Perkins, at the direction of Alabama Power executives, had ordered surveillance of Southern executives to influence corporate decision-making.
Pitts signaled his intent to subpoena Southern and Alabama Power for surveillance-related documents. Within days, lawyers for the companies sent a letter to Pitts demanding that he cease to make any requests or disclosures that would involve the companies in the lawsuit. Pitts and Perkins soon settled their dispute.
Southern then hired attorneys with Atlanta law firm King & Spalding, as well as Birmingham, Ala.-based White Arnold & Dowd, to perform an internal investigation into the allegations, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
In communications reviewed by the Journal, Pitts conveyed to Southern’s attorneys that Perkins consulted with Crosswhite before ordering surveillance on Fanning and his then-girlfriend, the personal trainer.
The idea, Pitts alleged, was part of a plan to put pressure on Fanning and the company’s board of directors as they contemplated corporate restructuring.
At the time, Fanning was under significant pressure. The company had lost $1.38 billion in the second quarter of 2017, its first loss since 1998.
Southern was struggling to build a power plant in Mississippi designed to run on coal and capture much of the carbon dioxide emitted in the process. The project’s costs had ballooned, and the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating its accounting practices and cost-control measures. The company said at the time it was cooperating with the investigation, which ended without the agency taking any enforcement action.
Southern was also facing serious challenges in expanding the nuclear plant in Georgia.
The plant, known as Vogtle, was supposed to have been completed by 2017 but had been substantially delayed. Construction costs had surged to nearly double the original estimate, and the company revised its completion estimate to 2021 at the earliest.
As the projects bled money, Southern began considering whether to consolidate certain functions of Southern’s three utilities to save costs over time.
Bain, a consulting firm, began exploring the potential benefits of consolidation, according to a person involved in the effort. Executives within Alabama Power were resistant to the idea, the person said.
Pitts alleged that Perkins and Crosswhite were concerned that consolidating resources, such as consulting and legal services, could result in job losses and potentially affect succession planning across the company. Pitts included what he said were handwritten notes from Perkins.
“Need more intel,” read an annotation next to the name of Fanning’s girlfriend at the time. Fanning wasn’t married at the time.
Pitts alleged that Perkins told him to undertake surveillance of Fanning and his girlfriend, saying that “the company wants this.”
The surveillance began on a Wednesday, June 14, 2017, with findings that were less than explosive.
“Through discreet methods, we determined that the fitness center was closed due to the installation of a new air conditioning system,” the investigator wrote after finding that the girlfriend wasn’t inside the facility as expected.
Two days later, after following the trainer from the gym to Fanning’s house, the investigator parked and waited for Fanning to arrive in his blue Lexus. He lingered outside for hours after the car pulled into the driveway.
Construction costs for the expansion of Georgia Power’s Vogtle nuclear power plant are now more than double original estimates, and the project is years behind schedule. PHOTO: JOHN BAZEMORE/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The next day, a Saturday, the investigator drove by Fanning’s house at 10:45 a.m. and noted a newspaper on the driveway. He returned at 2:30 p.m. and noted it had been picked up.
Just before 4 p.m., the investigator spotted Fanning running and noted he appeared to be interval training.
“We elected not to pursue Fanning to the top of the hill,” the investigator wrote.
The private investigator billed Matrix for the surveillance work and listed Pitts as the recipient on the invoice. He charged $150 for finding license-plate numbers for both Fanning and his girlfriend, $4,275 for the surveillance and $127.50 for producing a report and video, plus other miscellaneous expenses.
Southern said it found “no indication” that the company or its subsidiaries paid for the operation.
David Pomerantz, executive director of the Energy and Policy Institute, said since the surveillance came to light in local media coverage, investors and watchdogs have been puzzled about the whole affair, including whether any customer money was used. He said that it adds to his longstanding concerns about the industry’s corporate governance and use of consultants, which has led to other scandals in recent years.
“What we actually need—and what the company’s customers are entitled to—is an external investigation by regulators who can compel the production of information,” he said.
The Alabama Public Service Commission, the agency tasked with overseeing Alabama Power, said it has “no information regarding this matter.”
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Image by Germán & CoEuropean Green Pact under threat after vote in EU Parliament
On Tuesday, the European Legislative Assembly's Environment Committee voted to reject the Nature Restoration Bill as the right is trying to convince governments on its side to call for a pause in the implementation of the Green Pact.
Le Monde By Virginie Malingre(Brussels, Europe bureau), todayEach side has one victory under its belt. On Tuesday, June 27, after completing its article-by-article examination, the European Parliament's Environment Committee rejected the bill on nature restoration. Less than two weeks earlier, on June 15, the same MEPs had voted against an amendment to reject the same legislation, which aims to enshrine in European Union law the Montreal Agreement on biodiversity and its objectives, such as restoring 30% of degraded land and marine areas by 2030.
In both cases, 44 elected representatives voted in favor and 44 against. On Tuesday, this meant there was no majority for those in favor of the bill. On June 15, it was the defenders of the rejected amendment who missed their target by one vote. A third round of voting is due to take place at the July plenary session, to be held in Strasbourg from July 10 to 13, which will be called upon to confirm (or not) Tuesday's vote. Or perhaps we will have to wait until September, as requested by the conservatives of the European People's Party (EPP), who argue that the agenda of the next Strasbourg session is already very full.
A battle of rare intensity is being waged in the European Parliament between Manfred Weber, the chairman of the EPP group, allied with the far right, and Pascal Canfin, the Emmanuel Macron-allied chairman of the Environment Committee, behind whom the Greens, the Social Democrats (S&D) and some of his political friends, the liberals of Renew Europe, have rallied. The first group is calling for the law on nature restoration to be withdrawn outright, while the latter group wants to save it.
'European Trumpism'
Beyond the issues at stake in this bill on biodiversity, the future of the European Green Pact is at stake, against the backdrop of a campaign one year ahead of the European elections scheduled for June 2024. Until now, the EPP, along with Renew Europe and the S&D group, had supported the various bills presented to them by the Commission in the name of the Green Pact, notably to combat climate change (reform of the carbon market, creation of a carbon tax at borders, end of the combustion engine by 2035). Some 30 of these bills (out of a planned 50) have already been adopted.
However, in September 2022, Weber called for a moratorium on the environmental aspects of the Green Pact, explicitly attacking the legislation on nature restoration and pesticide reduction. The Bavarian CSU member argues that they threaten agricultural production, jeopardize food security and drive up the cost of living. Between the war in Ukraine and rising inflation, he said, "There's an urgent need for a break." Especially as the European elections are approaching and the CDU-CSU is now in opposition in Berlin. "For months now, we've been warning about the dangers of the nature restoration regulation. The Commission needs to get back to work and present a new copy," said EPP MEP Anne Sander.
In recent months, the EPP, the largest political force in the European Parliament, has methodically tried to kill the Nature Restoration Bill. Referring to the fact that some EPP MEPs, who sit on the Environment Committee and were fairly supportive, have been replaced by colleagues more in keeping with the group's position, Canfin accused Weber of "manipulating the vote" and "making the vote meaningless." "So I'm optimistic for the July plenary: Manfred Weber won't be able to replace the EPP members." Regarding the EPP and its far-right allies, he went on to say, "We are witnessing the emergence of a European Trumpism that is anti-environmental, anti-immigration and anti-feminist."
Within Renew Europe, the Nature Restoration Law is not unanimously supported. In fact, on Thursday, four of the 12 Liberal members of the Environment Committee voted against it. This ratio is likely to be repeated during the plenary vote, as the group has not given any voting instructions, unlike the EPP.
'I am asking for us to press the pause button'
It is not only the European Parliament that is questioning the need to continue with the Green Pact. Until now, only the heads of state and governments of certain Eastern European countries with high-carbon economies have voiced their reluctance.
Now, liberal leaders are also voicing their doubts. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a regulatory pause after 2024, infuriating some of his supporters. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo followed suit: "We must avoid (...) overburdening the boat by adding to the CO2 emission targets new standards," notably "in the field of biodiversity." I am asking for us to press the pause button, except for CO2." In the Netherlands, the success of the Farmers' Party, an anti-Green Pact movement that made a real breakthrough in regional elections in March, has prompted his counterpart Mark Rutte to advocate for a degree of caution.
Weber, who is also president of the EPP, Europe's right-wing party, is trying to win over the heads of state and governments to his cause. As they meet in Brussels on Thursday ahead of a European Council meeting, he is trying to convince them to call for a regulatory pause in the implementation of the Green Pact.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who also comes from the ranks of the EPP and has made the Green Pact one of her priorities, is keeping a close eye on these movements. For Angela Merkel's former minister, who plans to run for a second term as the head of the EU executive after the European elections, the outcome of these negotiations will be crucial. "Von der Leyen's political group is withdrawing from the Green Pact. She hasn't said anything yet. She must react before the July plenary," said Spanish Socialist MEP César Luena.
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Is there a new attempt to replicate the 1991 Soviet —coup d'état—?…Putin in crisis: Wagner chief Prigozhin declares war on Russian military leadership, says ‘we will destroy everything’
Is there a new attempt to replicate the 1991 Soviet —coup d'état—?
The attempt in 1991 was undoubtedly a significant event in modern history. It was an attempt by a group of hardline Communist Party members to overthrow Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and seize control of the Soviet Union. The coup ultimately failed, thanks in part to the mass protests and resistance of the people of Moscow. The event marked the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union, which would officially dissolve just a few months later. Despite its failure, the 1991 Soviet coup attempt remains a fascinating and significant moment in world history.
The consequences of the downfall of Prigozhin and Wagner will be far-reaching and have a lasting impact on Putin's legacy. This ordeal is a significant blow to his reputation and authority as a politician.On the military front, Wagner was believed to be the only effective force during the invasion of Ukraine. This split would further undermine Putin's strength in this domain. This significant event can also be interpreted as a blow to the Kremlin's generals and a warning to President Vladimir Putin. That is why there is widespread speculation in the media about a potential —--coup d'état——.
Image editing by Germán & Co
Image editing by Germán & CoRussia’s FSB security service opens criminal case against mercenary boss, as he vows to steamroll over anyone who gets in his way.
Is there a new attempt to replicate the 1991 Soviet —coup d'état—?
The attempt in 1991 was undoubtedly a significant event in modern history. It was an attempt by a group of hardline Communist Party members to overthrow Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and seize control of the Soviet Union. The coup ultimately failed, thanks in part to the mass protests and resistance of the people of Moscow. The event marked the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union, which would officially dissolve just a few months later. Despite its failure, the 1991 Soviet coup attempt remains a fascinating and significant moment in world history.
Germán & CoPolitico EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, TIM ROSS AND ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH, JUNE 23, 2023 Vladimir Putin is facing a major military crisis after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared war on Moscow’s own defense ministry, claiming Kremlin officials had killed thousands of his soldiers.
In a statement issued Friday night, the FSB security agency said it had “legally and reasonably begun criminal proceedings” against the Wagner Group warlord “for the organization of armed insurrection.”
Prigozhin, meanwhile, claimed he had pulled his troops back from Ukraine and into Russia’s Rostov, and vowed: “If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything!”
POLITICO could not verify the claim that Wagner troops had entered Rostov and Prigozhin did not present evidence of the massive troop movements he claimed were underway. But in the early hours of Saturday morning, videos began circulating on social media that reportedly showed unidentified armed men dressed in camouflage entering Rostov-on-Don, the administrative center of the Rostov region, and seizing government buildings.
According to Russian state media, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Putin is aware of the rapidly unfolding situation and “all necessary measures are being taken.”
“Prigozhin’s statements and actions are actually the calls for the beginning of an armed civil conflict on the territory of Russia and are a ‘stab in the back’ for Russian servicemen,” officials added.
The move comes after Prigozhin accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of having hidden “colossal” failings on the battlefield from Putin, claiming that 2,000 Wagner men were killed as a result of strikes ordered by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In a later statement on Telegram, Prigozhin called Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the overall commander of the war on Ukraine, “criminals” who had “who destroyed around 100,000 Russian soldiers.”
In an audio recording posted just after 5 a.m. Rostov time, Prigozhin repeated his threat that his troops would destroy anything that stood in their way. “Once again I’m warning everyone: we will … destroy everything around us. You can’t destroy us. We have goals. We are all ready to die. All 25,000 of us.”
In response to Prigozhin’s allegations, Moscow issued a strong denial and a procession of generals have lined up to urge Wagner fighters to stand down.
In one video appeal, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, first deputy chief of the general staff of the armed forces, said Prigozhin does not have the authority to give orders. “This is a state coup,” he insisted, “come to your senses!”
Meanwhile, the Deputy Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine Sergei Surovikin — known as “General Armageddon” — urged Wagner to hold its positions and not to turn on its own allies. “Stop the columns, return them to the points of permanent deployment,” he pleaded.
Russia’s defense ministry issued a statement in the early hours of Saturday morning, warning that Ukrainian forces are “taking advantage of Prigozhin’s provocation” on the front lines around the key battleground town of Bakhmut, which Wagner troops previously held. Moscow’s top brass also said the 35th and 36th brigades of Ukraine’s Marine Corps “are on the starting lines for offensive operations.”
In a tweet in the early hours of Saturday, Ukraine’s defense ministry said: “We are watching.”
Rolling the dice
Earlier Friday, the Wagner Group founder questioned Moscow’s rationale for launching its invasion of Ukraine, saying that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with NATO,” and that “the war was needed for a bunch of scumbags to triumph and show how strong of an army they are.”
In a bombastic video statement he called the Russian military leadership “evil” and vowed to march for “justice,” threatening anyone who stood in his way.
In a second message released on his Telegram channel in the early hours of Saturday morning, Prigozhin said that “at the current time, we are entering Rostov,” in Russia, adding that conscripts had been sent to turn Wagner Group fighters back. However, he went on to claim, those guarding the frontier had greeted his troops with open arms.
“If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything!” Prigozhin vowed.
In a post on his Telegram account, Vasily Golubev, the governor of the Rostov region, said: “The current situation requires the maximum concentration of all forces to maintain order. Law enforcement agencies are doing everything necessary to ensure the safety of residents of the area. I ask everyone to stay calm and do not leave the house without the need.”
Russian state media said checkpoints have been erected in Rostov-on-Don, close to the souther border with Ukraine. At the same time, unnamed officials told news agency TASS that security has been tightened in Moscow with national guard units deployed to keep the peace. Unverified videos purport to show armored vehicles parked on the streets of the capital.
Russian state media also said Moscow’s Red Square will be closed to the public on Saturday, claiming the reason for the closure was because an event was to be held there.
Speaking to POLITICO, Colonel Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and ex-NATO planner, said that it was “too early to tell” if a coup was underway. “Clearly Moscow is worried and has activated a defense plan — Prigozhin is trying to push something focused on Shoigu, but it could be many things.”
According to Ian Garner, a Russia expert and author of a new book on the fallout of the war in Ukraine, the Wagner chief has overplayed his hand. “Prigozhin has rolled the dice, and now the state is going to do away with him for good,” he said.
“I suspect Prigozhin’s chances of launching a successful coup are slim. The state can offer everything he does — money, freedom, prestige — without him. Why would the Wagner fighters side with Prigozhin in a battle to the death?” Garner said.
Death knell for Wagner
The chaos amounts to a death knell for the Wagner Group, which has been active not just in Ukraine but also in Africa, according to one analyst.
“Whatever this is, it is definitely the dismantling of Wagner,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst and founder of the R-Politik consultancy firm, on her Telegram channel.
“This is the end of Prigozhin and the end of Wagner. An important moment: many within the elite will hold it against Putin that things have come this far and that the president did not react sooner. That’s why this entire story is also a blow to Putin.”
In his increasingly unhinged voice memos on Telegram, Prigozhin also claimed a Russian military helicopter had opened fire on a convoy of his troops — and that Wagner had shot it down.
U.S. National Security Council spokesperson on Russia Adam Hodge said: “We are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”
Meanwhile, the Kremlin published a pre-recorded video of President Putin in honor of Youth Day.
The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
…”While there's significant disruption in Europe, renewable energy may accelerate in the US.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/02/while-theres-significant-disruption-in-europe-renewable-energy-may-accelerate-in-the-us-aes-ceo.html…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.
Ricardo Manuel Falú
Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
News round-up, June 23, 2023
”The Fish Dies By The Mouth…
During the previous week, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, delivered a sequence of impromptu statements that have significantly escalated the tension between the United States and China, as well as Russia, to a level that is approaching a critical point.
Germán & CoQuote of the day…
Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says
…”Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy
The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, 20 June 2023Most read..
La menace d’une guerre nucléaire en Europe…
By using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe,’ the influential political scientist Sergey Karaganov wrote in a 13 June article published by his think tank, the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. In this terrifying piece, Karaganov, who is close to Putin, explained that to avoid a stalemate in the war and ‘break the West’s will to support the Kiev junta’, Moscow should resort to targeted nuclear strikes on European cities. ‘The most striking characteristic of the war in Ukraine is its nuclear backdrop,’ observed Olivier Zajec in April 2022. ‘Events are unfolding as if the world was hurriedly relearning the vocabulary and fundamentals of nuclear strategy, forgotten since the cold war.’
By Olivier Zajec, June Editions, 2023, Le Monde DiplomatiqueSpecial focus on natural resources
Energy: conflicts, illusions, solutions
“Reflections from Le Monde Diplomatique …
Siemens Energy's wind turbine troubles to last years, shares tumble
On Friday, Siemens Energy's share price took a sharp dip, marking the most significant drop since the company's spin-off from Siemens and separate listing in 2020. The sudden decline has caught the attention of many investors and analysts, who are closely monitoring the situation to see how it will impact the energy industry as a whole.
REUTERS By Sabine Wollrab, Maria Sheahan and Christoph Steitz, June 23, 2023Governments at Paris summit to finalise climate finance roadmap
Almost 40 leaders to present plans for overhaul of public financial institutions including World Bank
The Guardian by Fiona Harvey in Paris, 23 Jun 2023 Image by Le Monde Diplomatique ”The Fish Dies By The Mouth…
During the previous week, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, delivered a sequence of impromptu statements that have significantly escalated the tension between the United States and China, as well as Russia, to a level that is approaching a critical point.
“It was about 3 o'clock in the morning when I was abruptly awoken by a loud crashing sound emanating bedroom. The noise resembled that of a collapsing and the subsequent falling of all items stored in the garret onto the floor. I on my bed, I hastily vacated discerned that the sole object that had descended was the stack of containers that my spouse had previously arranged in the corner to organize closet. There was no evidence of any objects having fallen from an attic, as no such space existed within structure. Remained undamaged, and I emerged unscathed.
David Goleman
The current geopolitical situation is a far cry from David Goleman's reflection. The tension between the United States, China, and Russia has reached a point where it is almost boiling over.
The role of language in shaping a state and accomplishing political goals is of utmost importance. Political linguistics can be a potent instrument for persuasion in the realm of politics, particularly in the context of speeches and campaigns. In a world that is politically fragmented, it is imperative that language is inclusive and demonstrates respect for diverse perspectives. It is imperative to refrain from using language that is divisive and inflammatory as it has the potential to exacerbate polarization and conflict. It is imperative to pursue shared interests and endeavor to comprehend divergent perspectives by means of transparent and productive discourse.
On September 22, 2021, an article authored by Ted Anthony for the Associated Press reported that China's President Xi Jinping, following in the footsteps of U.S. President Joe Biden, utilized a composed pre-recorded video message during the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly.
“China's President Xi Jinping remark, in which he underscored his country's unwavering dedication to multilateralism. President Jinping also urged nations to engage in dialogue and cooperation to resolve disputes. The statement pertains to the escalating tensions between China and the United States. President Xi emphasized the importance of ensuring that the success of one country does not impede the progress of another, and that the global community has ample space for collaborative development and advancement of all nations.
On March 27, 2022, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) published an article written by Anthony Zurcher, titled "Reflections on Why Biden's Off-Script Remarks About Putin Are So Dangerous. The article delves into the potential consequences of President Biden's unscripted comments regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin over the past week, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, delivered a series of impromptu statements that have significantly escalated the tension between the United States and Russia, bringing it to a point of almost reaching its boiling point.
As contrast tone in a recent statement from the White House, Mr Henry Kissinger, the former Secretary of State, “cautioned that in situations where two powers of comparable strength are in opposition, it frequently leads to military confrontation. The necessity for well-defined principles in managing conflicts bears resemblance to the period preceding the onset of World War I. The outstanding question pertains to the viability of harmonious cohabitation between China and the United States and whether it can be attained without the potential risk of military conflict. Kissinger proposes the implementation of measures aimed at promoting competition in strategic domains, alongside the creation of a continuous high-level dialogue between Beijing and Washington.
In this blog post that President Jose Biden, —considering his age— aspires to be commemorated from a historical perspective. Nothing strange in the longing if it is based on convectional parameters. Older people tend to be more reckless... Why, the answer is very easy, and they have nothing to lose... “The proposal put forth by Mr Kissinger to improve communication between Beijing and Washington has not received widespread support. The current crisis has been intensified by recent events, including the deployment of armaments by NATO against Russia and China's assertion that Russia's intervention in Ukraine was a result of a flawed security framework in Europe. This has contributed to an escalation of tensions and a deterioration of diplomatic relations between the involved parties. The use of the —law of club— as a mechanism for preserving order in contemporary society is a subject of apprehension and is commonly viewed as antiquated.
“China has responded to recent comments made by US President Joe Biden, in which he referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "dictator," by accusing the US of engaging in political provocation.
The possibility of a third nuclear age in Ukraine is concerning. According to Olivier Zajec's article in Le Monde Diplomatic, the situation is still being determined. It's important to remember that the first atomic age was based on deterrence, while the second was focused on eliminating nuclear weapons. However, we may face a much more dangerous and uncertain situation with the current state of affairs. Leaders must consider the consequences and take responsibility to prevent catastrophic outcomes.
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La menace d’une guerre nucléaire en Europe…
By using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe,’ the influential political scientist Sergey Karaganov wrote in a 13 June article published by his think tank, the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. In this terrifying piece, Karaganov, who is close to Putin, explained that to avoid a stalemate in the war and ‘break the West’s will to support the Kiev junta’, Moscow should resort to targeted nuclear strikes on European cities. ‘The most striking characteristic of the war in Ukraine is its nuclear backdrop,’ observed Olivier Zajec in April 2022. ‘Events are unfolding as if the world was hurriedly relearning the vocabulary and fundamentals of nuclear strategy, forgotten since the cold war.’
By Olivier Zajec, June Editions, 2023, Le Monde DiplomatiqueSpecial focus on natural resources
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Siemens Energy's wind turbine troubles to last years, shares tumble
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The Guardian by Fiona Harvey in Paris, 23 Jun 2023 The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
…”While there's significant disruption in Europe, renewable energy may accelerate in the US.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/02/while-theres-significant-disruption-in-europe-renewable-energy-may-accelerate-in-the-us-aes-ceo.html…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.
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La menace d’une guerre nucléaire en Europe…
By using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe,’ the influential political scientist Sergey Karaganov wrote in a 13 June article published by his think tank, the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. In this terrifying piece, Karaganov, who is close to Putin, explained that to avoid a stalemate in the war and ‘break the West’s will to support the Kiev junta’, Moscow should resort to targeted nuclear strikes on European cities. ‘The most striking characteristic of the war in Ukraine is its nuclear backdrop,’ observed Olivier Zajec in April 2022. ‘Events are unfolding as if the world was hurriedly relearning the vocabulary and fundamentals of nuclear strategy, forgotten since the cold war.’
By Olivier Zajec, June Editions, 2023, Le Monde Diplomatique‘If we refuse to use them, why do we have them?’
The first nuclear age was marked by deterrence, the second by hopes that nuclear weapons might be eliminated. The war in Ukraine may herald a third nuclear age, much more dangerous and uncertain than what came before.
On 11 March, President Joe Biden sharply rejected politicians’ and experts’ calls for the United States to get more directly involved in the Ukraine war, ruling out direct conflict with Russia: ‘The idea that we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews — just understand ... that’s called World War III’ (1). He nonetheless accepted war was possible if the Russian offensive spread to the territory of a NATO member state.
Thus a distinction was established between NATO’s territory (inviolable) and the territory of Ukraine, which falls into a unique geostrategic category: according to the US, maintaining this distinction will require an accurate understanding of the balance of power between the belligerents on the ground, strict control of the degree of operational involvement of Ukraine’s declared supporters (especially concerning the nature of arms transfers to Ukraine) and, above all, continual reassessment of the limits of Russia’s determination — all with a view to leaving room for a negotiated way out acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. Some trace the US’s caution back to a statement by Russia’s president Vladimir Putin on 24 February: ‘No matter who tries to stand in our way or ... create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.’ These words, and his order that Russia’s nuclear forces be placed on high alert (‘a special regime of combat duty’), amounted to attempted coercion, and could suggest that Biden’s reaction constituted backing down. In January, neoconservative New York Times columnist Bret Stephens had called for the revival of the concept of the ‘free world’, and warned, ‘The bully’s success ultimately depends on his victim’s psychological surrender’ (2).
One might argue that it is not for the bully to say how much aggression is ‘acceptable’ from countries that, with help from allies, seek to defend their own borders and their right to exist. Stephens’s warning could equally apply to past international crises, such as Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. But the territory being invaded today is Ukraine, which is far bigger. And the aggressor — Russia — has strategic arguments entirely different from those of Saddam Hussein.
‘Scenarios for use of nuclear arms’
To help understand the issues at stake in US-Russian relations today, and Joe Biden’s irritation with the extreme positions of some of his fellow Americans and some allies, it’s worth recalling Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov’s 2018 statement that Russia’s nuclear doctrine ‘has unambiguously limited the threshold of use of nuclear weapons to two ... hypothetical, entirely defensive scenarios. They are as follows: [first,] in response to an act of aggression against Russia and/or against our allies if nuclear or other types of mass destruction weapons are used and [second,] with use of conventional arms but only in case our state’s very existence would be in danger’ (3).
Nuclear doctrines are made to be interpreted, and Russia experts have long debated exactly how (4). In Foreign Affairs, Olga Oliker, director of International Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia programme, writes that ‘although it has not been used before, Putin’s phrase “a special regime of combat duty” does not appear to signal a serious change in Russia’s nuclear posture’ (5).
But, at least in terms of how the present crisis is perceived, we cannot ignore the implications of the second scenario in Lavrov’s 2018 statement — an existential threat to Russia. Do Russia’s leaders really see Ukraine’s strategic status, and therefore its potential NATO accession, as critical? If they do, that would explain why, contrary to all normal logic and political good sense, they have given NATO a reason to make a stand and irretrievably damaged Russia’s international standing by deciding it is rational to attack Ukraine unilaterally — and then opting for a blunt ‘nuclearisation’ of their crisis diplomacy, so as to keep other potential belligerents out of the conflict.
Is this just a cynical manoeuvre, banking on Western weakness and hesitation, to give Russia the greatest possible freedom to act? Former British prime minister Tony Blair asks on his thinktank’s website: ‘Is it sensible to tell [Putin] in advance that whatever he does militarily, we will rule out any form of military response? Maybe that is our position and maybe that is the right position, but continually signalling it, and removing doubt in his mind, is a strange tactic’ (6).
Who would take responsibility?
Yet although diplomatic manoeuvring is clearly going on, who — with responsibility for what comes next — would be able to say today precisely to what extent this Russian cynicism, which seeks to achieve its objectives through aggressive drawing of red lines, also stems from strategic conviction fuelled by frustrations that have come to a head? We should not underestimate the dangers of this mixture if the West were to test Russia’s siege mentality head on in Ukraine.
Others asked these questions, well before Biden. In the first days of the October 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the US joint chiefs of staff were taking a hard line, President John F Kennedy expressed the key issues not in military terms, but in terms of perception. He told a meeting of ExComm (the Executive Committee of the National Security Council), ‘Let me just say a little, first, about what the problem is, from my point of view ... we ought to think of why the Russians did this.’
The declassified archives on this key moment in history reveal that Kennedy talked of a blockade, of the importance of giving Khrushchev a way out, and of avoiding escalation to nuclear weapons, all while preserving the US’s international credibility. General Curtis E LeMay, US Air Force chief of staff, replied, ‘This blockade and political action, I see leading into war ... This is almost as bad as the appeasement at Munich.’ The joint chiefs were unanimous in recommending immediate military action. Kennedy thanked them, dryly, and, in the days that followed, did the exact opposite.
‘And [the joint chiefs] were wrong,’ historian Martin J Sherwin concludes in a recent book on decision-making processes in nuclear crises. ‘Had the president not insisted on a blockade, had he accepted the chiefs’ recommendations (also favoured by the majority of his ExComm advisers), he unwittingly would have precipitated a nuclear war’ (7).
The central issue is indeed the significance of the nuclear signalling in which Russia has wrapped its premeditated conventional attack. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky doubts Putin will really use nuclear weapons: ‘I think that the threat of nuclear war is a bluff. It’s one thing to be a murderer. It’s another to commit suicide. Every use of nuclear weapons means the end for all sides, not just for the person using them’ (8).
At the risk of appearing spineless, Biden seems to have reserved judgment. For the moment he is restraining his most aggressive allies, such as Poland, and focusing on the coercive force of the economic sanctions, rather than any initiative that might give Putin an excuse for escalation — starting with the use of tactical nuclear weapons, of which Russia is thought to have around 2,000.
‘Putin is bluffing on nuclear’
Is Biden wrong? On 14 March General Rick J Hillier, former chief of Canada’s defence staff, told CBS that NATO should impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine because Putin was bluffing. John Feehery, former communications director to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, thought so too: ‘Biden’s weakness on Ukraine invited [the] Russian invasion ... When Putin hinted that he was willing to use nuclear weapons to achieve his goals, Biden said that we weren’t going to use ours, which seems to me to defeat the purpose of having those weapons in the first place. If we refuse to use them, why do we have them?’ (9). Stanford historian Niall Ferguson agrees: ‘Putin is bluffing on nuclear, we shouldn’t have backed down.’ And is dismayed that ‘media coverage has become so sentimental and ignorant of military realities’ (10).
But what are these military ‘realities’? What is the nature of the problem? It’s the possibility that Russia will resort to first use of nuclear weapons in an armed conflict that is already under way. Nina Tannenwald, whose book The Nuclear Taboo (Cambridge, 2007) has become a key text in international relations, believes the risk is too great, and supports the US’s wait-and-see strategy: ‘Despite scattered calls in the US for the creation of a “no-fly zone” over some or all of Ukraine, the Biden administration has widely resisted. In practice, this could mean shooting down Russian planes. It could lead to World War III’ (11).
The most striking characteristic of the war in Ukraine is its nuclear backdrop. Events are unfolding as if the world was hurriedly relearning the vocabulary and fundamentals of nuclear strategy, forgotten since the cold war. This is certainly true of Western media and governments, as they become conscious of the potentially destructive sequences of events that link the operational-tactical and politico-strategic dimensions of the present tragedy. The bellicose declarations of some experts in the early days of the war have given way to calmer analysis. In many ways, it’s high time; Kharkiv is not Kabul. Especially given the recent worrying developments in the nuclear debate.
Until relatively recently, the nuclear orthodoxy established after the cold war, as the two superpowers reduced their strategic arsenals, had placed some nuclear weapons in a kind of peripheral area of the doctrine: those known as ‘tactical’ because of their lesser power and range. From 1945 to the 1960s, they had been a key part of US war plans, especially for the European theatre. At the time, the aim was to counter the Soviet Union’s conventional superiority with overwhelming nuclear superiority, to deny the battlefield to the enemy. US secretary of state John Foster Dulles, author of the ‘massive retaliation’ doctrine, stated in 1955, ‘The United States in particular has sea and air forces now equipped with new and powerful weapons of precision which can utterly destroy military targets without endangering unrelated civilian centers’ (12). President Dwight D Eisenhower declared, ‘I see no reason why they shouldn’t be used just exactly as you would use a bullet or anything else.’
However, from the 1960s, the prospect of ‘mutual assured destruction’ reduced the likelihood that tactical nuclear weapons would be used, because of the risk of escalation. The concept of a ‘limited nuclear strike’ gradually came to be seen as dangerous sophistry. Regardless of experts who were certain that a nuclear war could be ‘won’ by ‘graduating’ one’s nuclear response, and controlling the ‘ladders of escalation’ (the best known being Herman Kahn of the Hudson Institute), even a nuclear weapon (arbitrarily) labelled as ‘tactical’ still had the potential to lead to total destruction. The works of Thomas Schelling, especially The Strategy of Conflict (1960) and Strategy and Arms Control (1961) contributed to this new awareness.
Options for US decision makers
The rejection of graduation became a distinguishing characteristic of France’s nuclear doctrine. While reserving the option of a ‘unique and non-renewable’ warning shot, President Emmanuel Macron said in February 2020 that France had always ‘refused to consider nuclear weapons as a weapon of battle.’ He also insisted that France would ‘never engage in a nuclear battle or any form of graduated response’ (13).
Prior to the 2010s, it seemed possible that other nuclear-weapon states could adopt such a doctrinal stance, coupled with the ‘minimum necessary’ nuclear arsenal (France had fewer than 300 warheads). And it was possible to believe that, with a few exceptions (such as Pakistan), tactical nuclear weapons had ‘faded into the background of military and political planning and rhetoric’ (14).
Despite scattered calls in the US for the creation of a ‘no-fly zone' over some or all of Ukraine, the Biden administration has widely resisted. In practice, this could mean shooting down Russian planes. It could lead to World War IIINina Tannenwald
But over the last decade, the trend has reversed. In the world of strategic studies, there has been a return to ‘theories of [nuclear] victory’. Their proponents draw on the work of past scholars such as Henry Kissinger, who wondered in his 1957 book Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy if extending the American deterrent to all of Europe at a time when the threat of total destruction hung over the US itself would actually work: ‘A reliance on all-out war as the chief deterrent saps our system of alliances in two ways: either our allies feel that any military effort on their part is unnecessary or they may be led to the conviction that peace is preferable to war even on terms almost akin to surrender ... As the implication of all-out war with modern weapons become better understood ... it is not reasonable to assume that the United Kingdom, and even more the United States, would be prepared to commit suicide in order to defend a particular area ... whatever its importance, to an enemy’ (15).
One of the recommended solutions was to bring tactical nuclear weapons back into the dialectic of deterrence extended to allied territories, so as to give US decision makers a range of options between Armageddon and defeat without a war. Global deterrence was ‘restored’ by creating additional rungs on the ladder of escalation, which were supposed to enable a sub-apocalyptic deterrence dialogue — before one major adversary or the other felt its key interests were threatened and resorted to extreme measures. Many theorists in the 1970s took this logic further, in particular Colin Gray in a 1979 article, now back in fashion, titled ‘Nuclear Strategy: the case for a theory of victory’ (16).
Theoreticians of nuclear victory today reject the ‘paralysis’ that comes with an excessively rigid vision of deterrence. Their strategic beliefs were semi-officialised in the Trump administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (17). What influence have these theories had on Russia? Has the Kremlin chosen to combine nuclear and conventional deterrents in an operational continuum? Whatever the case, authors who defend the idea of using tactical (‘low-yield’ or ‘ultra-low yield’) nuclear weapons emphasise the importance of countering adversaries who adopt hybrid strategies. Rogue states without a nuclear deterrent will increasingly be tempted to present a fait accompli, banking on nuclear-weapon states’ risk aversion, at least when the latter face a crisis that does not affect their own national territory.
Uncertainties of deterrence dialogue
This shows how Kissinger’s 1957 discussion of the intrinsic weaknesses of wider nuclear deterrence remains pertinent today. The benefits would be even greater for a state with a nuclear deterrent — a nuclear-weapon state behaving like a rogue state. This is exactly what Russia is doing in Ukraine. The West’s hesitation to adopt an over-vigorous response that could lead to nuclear escalation is amplified by its realisation of how history would view whichever party — aggressor or victim — became the first to break the nuclear taboo since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. International Crisis Group’s Olga Oliker admits that ‘such caution and concessions may not bring emotional satisfaction; there is certainly a visceral appeal to proposals that would have NATO forces directly help Ukraine. But these would dramatically heighten the risk that the war becomes a wider, potentially nuclear conflict. Western leaders should therefore reject them out of hand. Literally nothing else could be more dangerous.’
The ‘Third Nuclear Age’, heralded by various crises over the last decade, has dawned in Ukraine. In 2018 Admiral Pierre Vandier, now chief of staff of the French navy, offered a precise definition of this shift to the new strategic era, which has begun with Russia’s invasion: ‘A number of indicators suggest that we are entering a new era, a Third Nuclear Age, following the first, defined by mutual deterrence between the two superpowers, and the second, which raised hopes of a total and definitive elimination of nuclear weapons after the cold war’ (18).
This third age will bring new questions on the reliability — and relevance — of ‘logical rules ... painfully learned, as during the Cuban [missile] crisis’ (19). There will be questions about the rationality of new actors using their nuclear deterrents. The worth of the nuclear taboo, which some today treat as absolute, will be reappraised.
‘Unleashed power of the atom’
Questions like ‘If we refuse to use them, why do we have them?’ suggest Albert Einstein’s warning from 1946 may still be pertinent: ‘The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking.’ Yet Einstein was already wrong. Huge numbers of papers were hurriedly written to explain the balances and imbalances of the deterrence dialogue. The current usefulness of these historical, theoretical documents is highly variable, as their logic often reaches absurd conclusions. Yet they include some intelligent analyses that shed light on the Ukrainian nuclear crisis.
Columbia professor Robert Jervis (20), a pioneer of political psychology in international relations, sought to demonstrate that it was possible to overcome the security anxieties that cause each actor to see his own actions as defensive, and those of his competitor as ‘naturally’ offensive. Jervis maintained that breaking the insecurity cycle caused by this distortion meant developing exchanges of signals that would make it possible to differentiate between offensive and defensive weapons in the arsenals of one’s adversaries. And his adaptation of prospect theory to nuclear crises opens up possibilities of interpreting Russia’s behaviour differently, suggesting for example that the adoption of aggressive tactics is more often motivated by aversion to loss than by hopes of gain.
In a nuclear crisis, all strategies are sub-optimal. One, however, is worse than all the rest: claiming that the adversary’s leader is insane, while simultaneously treating the standoff as a game of chicken. This will lead either to mutual destruction or to defeat without a war. Over the past few weeks, some seem to have accepted that this worst of all possible choices is worthy of being called a strategy.
Olivier Zajec is a lecturer in political science at Jean Moulin Lyon III University’s law faculty.Translated by Charles GouldenImage: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image by Le Monde Diplomatique / cc p_v a l d i v i e s oSpecial focus on natural resources
Energy: conflicts, illusions, solutions
“Reflections from Le Monde Diplomatique …
Oil, gas, coal, uranium: these words make up the language of power, and the countries that forgot it were reminded by the war in Ukraine. Today we can add solar, wind and hydrogen to this vocabulary. How much are the business sector’s green schemes worth? Will a real energy transition also require a social transformation? There is no shortage of ideas around to reconcile concerns about the end of the world with concerns about the end of the month.
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Flags are seen at Siemens Energy's site on the day of German Chancellor OIaf Scholz's visit, during which he saw a gas turbine meant to be transported to the compressor station of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Russia, in Muelheim an der Ruhr, Germany, August 3, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/FILE PHOTOSiemens Energy's wind turbine troubles to last years, shares tumble
On Friday, Siemens Energy's share price took a sharp dip, marking the most significant drop since the company's spin-off from Siemens and separate listing in 2020. The sudden decline has caught the attention of many investors and analysts, who are closely monitoring the situation to see how it will impact the energy industry as a whole.
REUTERS By Sabine Wollrab, Maria Sheahan and Christoph Steitz, June 23, 2023FRANKFURT/BERLIN, June 23 (Reuters) - Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) had one third wiped off its market value on Friday after warning that the impact of quality problems at its Siemens Gamesa wind turbine business could cost more than 1 billion euros ($1.09 billion) and take years to fix.
The group scrapped its 2023 profit outlook late on Thursday after a review of its wind turbine division exposed deeper-than-expected problems.
"This is a disappointing and severe setback," Siemens Gamesa CEO Jochen Eickholt told journalists on a call.
"I have said several times that there is actually nothing visible at Siemens Gamesa that I have not seen elsewhere. But I have to tell you that I would not say that again today."
Siemens Energy's share price plunge on Friday was the biggest since the group was spun off from Siemens (SIEGn.DE) and separately listed in 2020.
Shares in the group, which supplies equipment and services to the power sector, were down 31.5% at 0842 GMT.
Traders and analysts said the extent of the company's latest problems was still uncertain.
"Even though it should be clear to everyone, I would like to emphasise again how bitter this is for all of us," Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch told journalists in a call.
Finance chief Maria Ferraro earlier told analysts that the majority of the hit would be over the next five years.
"Given the history and nature of the wind industry, the profit warning was not a complete surprise, but what surprised us was the magnitude," analysts at JPMorgan said.
Issues at Siemens Gamesa have been a drag on its parent for a long time, prompting Siemens Energy to take full control of the business earlier this month after only partially owning it for several years.
Deka Investment, a top-20 shareholder, said Siemens Energy would have to work hard to regain market confidence.
"The renewed profit warning is a bitter setback that undoes the very good work of the management team in one fell swoop," Deka Investment's Ingo Speich told Reuters.
Deepening troubles at Siemens Energy could also weigh on efforts by Siemens AG (SIEGn.DE), which still owns nearly a third of Siemens Energy and remains its largest shareholder, to divest its stake at an attractive price and exit the company.
Siemens AG declined to comment on Friday.
PROBLEMS 'SWEPT UNDER CARPET'
The discovery of faulty components at Siemens Gamesa in January had already caused a charge of nearly half a billion euros.
Eickholt said that while rotor blades and bearings were partly to blame for the turbine problems, it could not be ruled out that design issues also played a role.
Bruch also blamed the corporate culture at Siemens Gamesa, the result of a merger of the wind turbine division of Siemens and Spain's Gamesa, saying: "Too much has been swept under the carpet".
He said that the setback from the quality problems was "more severe than I thought possible". At the same time, he said he did not believe that the full takeover of Siemens Gamesa had been a mistake.
Bruch said that the company would be able to provide a more accurate estimate of the costs from the latest problems by the time it publishes its third-quarter results on Aug. 7, after a full analysis of the situation.
The US climate envoy John Kerry (left) and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, take part in a discussion during the summit in Paris on Thursday. Photograph: Ludovic Marin/EPAGovernments at Paris summit to finalise climate finance roadmap
Almost 40 leaders to present plans for overhaul of public financial institutions including World Bank
The Guardian by Fiona Harvey in Paris, 23 Jun 2023 Questions over a tax on global shipping and other big sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and how countries should go about setting up a loss and damage fund continue to be the subject of fierce discussion, as governments meet in Paris to prepare an overhaul of global development and climate finance.
Nearly 40 heads of state and government and a similar number of ministers and high-level representatives will finalise a roadmap for the reform of the world’s public finance institutions, including the World Bank, and of overseas aid and climate finance.
Governments at the two-day finance summit in Paris will now be ordered to present concrete proposals on a loss and damage fund, to be directed at the rescue and reconstruction of countries stricken by climate disaster, before the UN Cop28 climate summit this November. This must include proposals for how to fill that fund, including potential new taxes on fossil fuels.
A draft of the roadmap seen by the Guardian, dated 20 June and discussed on Thursday at the first day of the Paris summit for a new global financing pact, sets out six pages of proposals for delivery at carefully choreographed points up to September 2024. It includes items for delivery at future meetings of the G20 summit, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings in October, Cop28 and other international meetings, up to the Summit for the Future to be held next September.
Some of these aims have already been partly achieved at the current Paris summit, hosted by the French president, Emmanuel Macron. For instance, the World Bank has agreed to start suspending debt payments for countries hit by climate disaster. However, so far these “climate resilient debt clauses” will only apply to new loan agreements, rather than being applied to existing loans.
Taxes are likely to prove a difficult point. The EU wants more countries to use emissions trading to raise funds for climate action, but some developing countries are less keen on the prospect, which they regard as complex and more suitable for use in advanced economies.
John Kerry, the special envoy for climate to the US president, Joe Biden, said the White House did not have a position on potential taxes on shipping, aviation or fossil fuels. “I support some kind of revenue raising on a broad basis, but this is not administration policy,” he told journalists, in answer to a question from the Guardian. “I personally have supported pricing carbon, but I’m not advocating a tax or a fee or anything at this point. Certainly the administration is not, but we have to find a way to find more concessionary funding.”
He also indicated that China should be a potential donor to a loss and damage fund. “You’ve got to look at this [fund] and say what’s fair, what makes sense. And people are going to ask themselves all around the world: ‘Do you think that the second largest economy in the world ought to put something into it?’ I can’t imagine people who say no, that doesn’t make sense. So that’s the kind of thing we have to work at. It’s the kind of thing we’ve got to have a discussion about.”
Absent from the draft proposals seen by the Guardian is the commitment to triple the finance available from the World Bank, which has been supported by Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados.
However, if the changes to the World Bank and its fellow institutions are carried out, then a significant expansion of publicly funded development banks’ ability to lend could follow.
The planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essential
The proposals range from the highly detailed, including ways of sharing data on developing countries with private investors to help them draw up improved risk profiles on countries less likely to default on debt, to the broad brush, such as the launch of an independent body to facilitate links between countries and funds so that climate financing works a little more smoothly.
Experts are also asked to come up with a definition of “vulnerable countries”, to target those most at risk from the effects of the climate crisis and least able to build resilience against disaster.
Alex Scott of the E3G thinktank said: “If this [draft roadmap] is what comes out, we and campaigners would be very happy with this. It is a concrete roadmap that would be a clear and credible sign that this agenda for solving problems with the financial system is on its way. It sets actions governments have to take, and there are lots of ideas in here that are needed.”
News round-up, June 21, 2023
Quote of the day…
Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says
…”Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy
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Le Monde by Guillaume Delacroix, Emmanuelle Picaud and Luc Martinon, published today at 5:00 am (Paris) Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says
Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy
The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, 20 June 2023Clean Geothermal, Green Earth: Sinopec to Host World Geothermal Congress 2023
In 22 cities, Sinopec Star has built 10 "smoke-free cities" and has installed more than 1 million square meters of geothermal heating. Over 85 million square meters of clean energy heating capacity have been built in Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong provinces, and more, reducing carbon emissions by 4.2 million tons and benefiting millions of households.
BEIJING, June 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ Quote of the day…
Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says
…”Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy
The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, 20 June 2023Most Read…
Biden equates China's Xi with 'dictators' at donors reception
Speaking at a campaign fundraiser in California, Biden said said Xi had been angered over an incident in February when a Chinese spy balloon was shot down by American military jets.
Le Monde with AFP, Published today at 5:10 am (Paris)U.S. Tracked Huawei, ZTE Workers at Suspected Chinese Spy Sites in Cuba
Intelligence bolstered suspicions telecom giants might be playing role in expansion of China’s capabilities on island
WSJ by Kate O’Keeffe, updated June 21, 2023 How Europe's polluting industries turned free CO₂ quotas into a market worth billions
'The right to pollute' (1/2). Cement and steel manufacturers have used a European Union aid system to boost their profits.
Le Monde by Guillaume Delacroix, Emmanuelle Picaud and Luc Martinon, published today at 5:00 am (Paris) Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says
Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy
The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, 20 June 2023Clean Geothermal, Green Earth: Sinopec to Host World Geothermal Congress 2023
In 22 cities, Sinopec Star has built 10 "smoke-free cities" and has installed more than 1 million square meters of geothermal heating. Over 85 million square meters of clean energy heating capacity have been built in Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong provinces, and more, reducing carbon emissions by 4.2 million tons and benefiting millions of households.
BEIJING, June 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
President Biden equates China's Xi with 'dictators' / Image by Germán & CoBiden equates China's Xi with 'dictators' at donors reception
Speaking at a campaign fundraiser in California, Biden said said Xi had been angered over an incident in February when a Chinese spy balloon was shot down by American military jets.
Crossing the line can be dangerous…
In September 2002, I published on Energycentral.com an essay titled: *"Beware of Starving the Enemy of Oxygen." The paper delved into the dangerous tactic of depriving the adversary of oxygen. The praxis entails maintaining an open door to any potential solution that has been identified. The article "Biden Shows Growing Appetite to Cross Putin's Red Lines," published in the Wall Street Journal, offers valuable insights into President Biden's inclination to confront the limitations imposed by the Russian leader, Putin. Despite the suspicions of a potential global conflict, this action is a subject of significant apprehension. The former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, has warned that when two powers of similar strength oppose, it often results in armed conflict. The need for clearly defined principles for conflict management is reminiscent of the period preceding the onset of World War I. The unresolved inquiry concerns the feasibility of peaceful coexistence between China and the United States and whether it can be achieved without the potential risk of military conflict. Kissinger proposes the implementation of measures to foster competition in strategic domains, as well as the establishment of an ongoing high-level dialogue between Beijing and Washington. Unfortunately, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of reports concerning drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military installations. The extent of these attacks has exceeded the confines of the front line. It can be categorized as shaping operations, which may serve as a preliminary step towards a counteroffensive by Kyiv. The recent fire incident at the Afipsky refinery has brought attention to the potential outcomes and advantages of pushing against the limits set by President Putin, as there is a possibility that a drone caused the incident.
*HTTPS://ENERGYCENTRAL.COM/C/OG/BEWARE-STARVING-ENEMY-OXYGENUS President Joe Biden (R) and China's President Xi Jinping (L) meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on November 14, 2022. SAUL LOEB / AFP
US President Joe Biden equated his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping with "dictators" on Tuesday, June 20, as he addressed a Democratic Party donors reception in the presence of journalists.
Speaking at a campaign fundraiser in northern California, Biden said Xi had been angered over an incident in February when a Chinese balloon, which Washington says was used for spying, flew over the United States before being shot down by American military jets.
"The reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment is he didn't know it was there," Biden said. "I'm serious. That was the great embarrassment for dictators, when they didn't know what happened. "That wasn't supposed to be going where it was (...) and he didn't know about it," Biden said of Xi. "When it got shot down he was very embarrassed and he denied it was even there."
Biden, who at 80 is running for re-election, on Tuesday waived off concerns about the Asian giant, telling donors that "China has real economic difficulties." The remarks are likely to raise strong objections from Beijing, where US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited just days earlier in an attempt to lower the temperature between the two global powers.
Still on the subject of China and Xi, Biden said "we're in a situation now where he wants to have a relationship again." Blinken "did a good job" on his Beijing trip, but "it's going to take time," Biden added.
The US president did bring up another prickly point regarding communist-ruled China: a recent summit in which leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the US, known as the Quad group, sought to boost peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific maritime region. The four countries are "working hand in glove in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean," Biden said. "What he [Xi] was really upset about was that I insisted that we unite the (...) so-called Quad," Biden said.
Tuesday was not the first time Biden has made significant, even provocative, statements at fund-raising receptions, usually small-scale events at which cameras and recordings are forbidden but where journalists may listen to and transcribe the president's opening remarks. At one such event last October, for example, Biden spoke of the threat of nuclear "Armageddon" from Russia.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Despite U.S. restrictions on Huawei, exporters have sold large amounts of technology to the Chinese company. PHOTO: ERIC GAILLARD/REUTERS/ Editing by Germán & Co U.S. Tracked Huawei, ZTE Workers at Suspected Chinese Spy Sites in Cuba
Intelligence bolstered suspicions telecom giants might be playing role in expansion of China’s capabilities on island
WSJ by Kate O’Keeffe, updated June 21, 2023 …”China's military involvement in the region is a cause for concern. They supply armaments, train personnel, send warships and military delegations, and covertly involve themselves in strategic infrastructure development, such as ports (Honduras). Recent information on a base in Cuba highlights the extent of their involvement.
Ursula von der Leyen's perilous journey to Latin America as President of the European Union by Germán & Co , 20 June, 2023WASHINGTON—During the Trump administration, U.S. officials reviewed intelligence that tracked workers from the Chinese telecom giants Huawei Technologies and ZTE entering and exiting facilities suspected of housing Chinese eavesdropping operations in Cuba, according to people familiar with the matter.
The intelligence contributed to suspicions within the Trump administration that the telecommunications companies might be playing a role in expanding China’s ability to spy on the U.S. from the island, according to people familiar with the matter. It couldn’t be learned whether the Biden administration has pursued that line of inquiry.
While neither Huawei nor ZTE is known to make the sophisticated tools governments would use for eavesdropping, both specialize in the technology needed to facilitate such an operation, such as servers and network equipment that could be used to transmit data to China, the people familiar with the matter said.
In a statement, Huawei said it denied “such groundless accusations,” adding that it was “committed to full compliance with the applicable laws and regulations where we operate. ”ZTE didn’t respond to a request for comment.
China has maintained a spy base in Cuba since at least 2019, when Donald Trump was president, and the two countries already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. In addition, Beijing and Havana are negotiating to establish a new joint military training facility on Cuba’s northern coast, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
Beijing’s efforts to expand its intelligence gathering from Cuba are ongoing, the White House has said. Following a 2019 upgrade to its intelligence-collection facilities on the island, Beijing “will keep trying to enhance its presence in Cuba, and we will keep working to disrupt it,” a White House official said Monday.
U.S. officials have long said China’s government might use the nation’s telecom companies to spy. The U.S. has been engaged in a yearslong campaign to persuade allies to shut Huawei in particular out of their next-generation telecommunications networks. Huawei has said it wouldn’t spy for China.
The Chinese Embassy didn’t respond to requests for comment. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has denied that China is spying in Cuba. The Cuban Embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment, but has called the Journal’s earlier report on a Chinese spy station on the island “totally mendacious and unfounded.”
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence didn’t respond to requests for comment.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had told his counterparts in Beijing that the U.S. had “deep concerns” about Chinese spying and military activities in Cuba.
“This is something we’re going to be monitoring very, very closely, and we’ve been very clear about that,” he told reporters. “And we will protect our homeland; we will protect our interests.”
The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment on Huawei’s and ZTE’s potential roles in China’s spying operation in Cuba. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday it was “no secret or surprise that the PRC has been trying to improve their influence, their reach, and their intelligence collection capabilities in the Western Hemisphere and that includes the relationship that they had had for quite some time with Cuba.”
“It’s not like we aren’t aware of it, it’s not like we haven’t been monitoring it,” he said. “And quite frankly, it’s not like we haven’t taken steps and we’ll continue to take steps to thwart it and to be able to protect our own secrets and our own national security, and that’s the case in this space as well.”
Rep. Mike Gallagher (R., Wis.), chairman of the bipartisan Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, on Tuesday sent a letter to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Commerce Department Secretary Gina Raimondo seeking clarity on U.S. policies to control the export of U.S. technology to Chinese telecom companies.
In the letter, which was reviewed by the Journal, he said Huawei has assisted the Cuban government in modernizing its telecommunications and internet infrastructure since the 2000s and that the company, along with ZTE and Great Dragon Information Technology Group, maintains a regular business presence on the island.
Great Dragon couldn’t be reached for comment.
Gallagher wrote that because of China’s official policy of using Chinese commercial entities to build up its military, any enhancement of China’s intelligence capabilities in Cuba “is likely” to be aided by Chinese telecommunications companies.
He speculated that these companies’ existing business operations in Cuba could provide cover for Chinese intelligence officials to travel to and from the island without creating the same suspicion as official travel.
Gallagher posed a series of questions to the officials regarding the intelligence community’s awareness of the connections between Chinese signals-intelligence operations and commercial activities in Cuba and whether the information has been used to inform ongoing export-licensing decisions.
In 2019, the U.S. Commerce Department added Huawei to a so-called entity list requiring companies to get licenses to ship many goods to Huawei. In 2020, officials significantly expanded the licensing requirements. But the Commerce Department has issued many such licenses, enabling exporters to continue selling large amounts of tech to Huawei.
The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul (R., Texas), has been spearheading an effort to pressure the Commerce Department to change its policy. In 2021, he released data showing the department had granted 113 export licenses enabling companies to sell about $61 billion of goods to Huawei from Nov. 9, 2020, through April 20, 2021.
The Commerce Department had restricted exports to ZTE on and off since 2016 until Trump said in 2018 that he would allow the company to resume buying U.S. goods in exchange for a fine of $1.3 billion and a leadership shake-up.
Alan Estevez, the Commerce Department’s undersecretary for industry and security, has told lawmakers that his team is reviewing its policies and doing everything possible to prevent sensitive U.S. technology from getting into the hands of adversaries.
A Commerce Department spokesman said Huawei still faces “significant export restrictions” and noted that the agency in April imposed the largest stand-alone civil penalty in its history against a U.S. company for selling hard-disk drives to Huawei without a license.
The spokesman added that ZTE remains subject to a settlement agreement with the Commerce Department that subjects it to additional oversight.
Image by Germán & CoHow Europe's polluting industries turned free CO₂ quotas into a market worth billions
'The right to pollute' (1/2). Cement and steel manufacturers have used a European Union aid system to boost their profits.
Le Monde by Guillaume Delacroix, Emmanuelle Picaud and Luc Martinon, published today at 5:00 am (Paris) It's a 30-year story worth billions of euros. Thirty long years that will not go down in the European Union's (EU) history as the most successful in its fight against global warming. Three decades during which Europe's most polluting industries – steel, cement, oil, and aluminum, among others – received free CO2 emission quotas; a kind of "right to pollute" that is supposed to be reduced over time to encourage them to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the scheme quickly became a financial tool enabling its beneficiaries to increase their profits through the resale of these quotas. Between 2013 and 2021 alone, the World Wide Fund for Nature estimates that the biggest emitting industries pocketed €98.5 billion, and only a quarter of this sum (€25 billion) was devoted to climate action.
The free quota system, which was launched on January 1, 2005, and is still in force, is set to disappear in 2034. On April 18, the European Parliament adopted a new climate plan to gradually replace it with a "carbon border adjustment mechanism" at the Union's borders, this time with the aim of making imports from the sectors with the highest CO2 emissions green. By opting for a simpler scheme, the EU did not officially make its mea culpa. But implicitly, that was the admission.
'Legal' detour
After eight months of investigation with financial support from the Investigative Journalism for Europe (IJ4EU) fund, Le Monde can reveal that this system, which was intended to be benevolent toward industrialists, has been diverted from its original purpose. Le Monde took a closer look at the steel and cement industries in France and Spain, which are two of the biggest beneficiaries.
An in-depth analysis of the financial transactions recorded by these players on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (SEQE-EU-ETS) confirms what some people have long assumed: Companies have resold part of their free allowances for hundreds of millions of euros, sometimes billions. But unlike the huge VAT fraud that rocked the scheme in its early days, costing EU countries €6 billion and leading to court convictions many years later, this form of embezzlement is legal.
This story began at the Rio Summit in 1992. It was then that the idea of a carbon tax on industries in developed countries, in a bid to make the economy more environmentally friendly, was born. The initiative failed to win the unanimous support of member states, with France in particular blocking the decision. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol put the issue back on the table. Al Gore, vice president of the United States, found the idea interesting but feared that this approach would not be approved by the US Congress. So, a system more compatible with the capitalist model had to be devised, with a view to a possible rapprochement of transatlantic markets in the future.
Europe then set up a carbon market, within which manufacturers could buy and sell quotas to regulate their CO2 emissions. "The EU created a market that had never existed before from scratch. It was a first in the history of mankind," said Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, director of the Europe program at the Institut de l'Economie pour le Climat. Today, this market is the world's leading financial center of its kind, although others are emerging, for example in China.
"From the outset, a number of key questions were raised. What model should be used to allocate the quotas that companies will trade with each other? Should they be given away for free or sold? Who will be covered by the measure? Will companies be able to save quotas from one year to the next?" said Julien Hanoteau, professor of economics and sustainable development at Kedge Business School in Aix-Marseille. A model was rapidly taking shape, even if it had not been met with unanimous approval. The European Union decided that every year it would allocate free CO2 quotas to manufacturers, based on the greenhouse gases they estimated they would emit over the following 12 months. One quota is equivalent to one tonne of CO2.
Sale of CO2 quotas with no strings attached
After one year, industrial facilities must surrender the number of allowances equivalent to their actual CO2 emissions. If they have emitted more CO2 than expected, they can buy additional allowances from companies that have not used all of theirs, according to the "polluter pays" principle devised by the market's creators. Conversely, if they have emitted less CO2 than expected, they can resell the surplus allowances they hold. Quotas have no sell-by date. And when they are in surplus, they become stocks in the form of simple financial assets that companies can sell at will, with no strings attached, or supplement by buying others on the market if the price of carbon has fallen.
In its 2022 annual report, ArcelorMittal stated that it held €154 million in "intangible financial assets" in respect of CO2 quotas on December 31, 2021, and €691 million on December 31, 2022, as noted by the London-based international journalist organization Finance Uncovered, which was contacted for the purposes of this investigation. This is the result, said the company, of "mature" purchases that have enabled it to strengthen the assets side of its balance sheet for considerable amounts.
The pilot phase of the European free quota scheme began 20 years ago in 2003. Distribution began timidly in 2005, reaching cruising speed in 2008. In retrospect, the initial logic was surprising. The more CO2 an industrial facility plans to emit, the more rights to pollute it receives. From 2008 until 2012, quotas were allocated on the basis of production years prior to the economic crisis. As a result, manufacturers received far more allowances than they actually needed. Some manufacturers themselves were quick to express reservations about the SEQE system's methods, such as the Spanish cement manufacturer Cementos Tudela Veguin and the French cement manufacturer Vicat.
"We told ourselves that we were on a slippery slope, that we were potentially going to have to give back the stocks granted in excess. We were aware that it couldn't last, that someone was going to ring the bell at some point," said Eric Bourdon, deputy managing director of the French cement manufacturer, which chose not to touch the surplus quotas that had been distributed to it, a strategy that ran counter to its competitors. "We sold a little at the beginning, but we stopped very quickly. We now have 4.5 million tonnes of CO2 quotas. We'll have to decide how best to use them," he said.
The allocation rules were changed in 2012 and again in 2018. But the excess has continued, as shown by the latest report on the state of the EU ETS, published in 2022 by the European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition. Cumulative surpluses of free allowances only stabilized in 2013, and even then at a very high level, for the equivalent of 1.3 billion tonnes of CO2 per year. And it was only in 2017 that CO2 emissions across all sectors began to fall significantly.
'A market created from scratch'
MEP Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, France's Green party), who has been calling for the abolition of free quotas for years, is bitterly disappointed. "The public authorities have created a market from scratch, accepting from the outset all the intolerable excesses of the financialization of the economy," said the former Green candidate in the 2022 presidential election. "The State could very well have recuperated the money generated by the sale of quotas to environmentally compensate polluting activities, lower VAT or to reduce income tax. However, this is not the choice that was made, but instead to let companies operate freely," said Hanoteau.
Allowances are auctioned every morning at 11 am. In the early days, transactions represented a few million tonnes of CO2 per day. Since then, the market has become more sophisticated. It now covers almost 18,000 installations, and manufacturers, through banks, investment funds, brokers and a dozen trading companies, now trade 20 to 30 million tonnes of CO2 every day, anticipating future variations in the price of carbon.
"The market has become very attractive to investors. The price of carbon was initially €7 per tonne, in August 2008 it rose to €24, and now it's hovering around €100. Some predict that it will reach €150 in 2030, and in the meantime, more than 80% of transactions are speculative rather than related to environmental issues," said Ismael Romeo, director of SendeCO2, a trading company based in Barcelona.
Ivan Pavlovic, an energy transition specialist at Natixis (a subsidiary of the Banque Populaire Caisse d'Epargne group), confirmed this: "Even if they remain a minority for the moment, speculative investment funds specializing in carbon markets, which bet on these quotas, now exist." In 2021, almost 11 billion tonnes of CO2 were traded on the market, with a value of €683 billion, said British financial analysis company Refinitiv.
'It's a black box'
The system soon proved to be flawed. Transactions were difficult to trace, even for experts in the field. "The system is rather esoteric. At all levels, including the European Commission, nobody has a global, unanimous vision. It's a black box. Only the financial directors or industrial directors of the companies concerned know exactly what is being done with these quotas," said the head of a CO2 quota trading company.
Sometimes, transactions are not only justified by financial reasoning. "They can also be inspired by climatic or political events. Energy companies, which were excluded from the system of free quotas in 2013 because they used them to increase the price of electricity, are obliged to buy them at their own expense. They may resell them at the end of the winter if the temperature was higher than expected and their CO2 emissions were consequently lower. The same applies if there is inflation in energy prices, as in the summer of 2022, when gas prices soared," said Gregory Idil, a trader at Vertis Environmental Finance, a Brussels-based company.
In any case, companies are reluctant to disclose this information, which they consider sensitive for their industrial competitiveness. "Transactions are a reflection of economic activity. If a company says it has sold quotas, it is potentially acknowledging that its production has fallen," said Barcelona-based trader Romeo. Not everyone is equal when it comes to the right to pollute. British Steel learned this the hard way. After getting rid of its free quotas to make up for its financial losses, it had to buy back pollution rights to be able to continue its activities and be authorized to emit CO2. Except that, in the meantime, the price of carbon had soared. In the end, the company became over-indebted and, a victim of its speculation, it eventually went bankrupt in 2019.
Opacity
Quota sales are subject to "business secrecy." This was an argument put forward by several of the companies interviewed by Le Monde when commenting on the information in our database. In Spain, cement manufacturers referred us to their employers' federation, Oficemen, for consolidated sector data. But the federation refused to comment. "Oficemen doesn't have any data. These questions relate to specific company issues. Only they can answer you," said a spokesperson. None of them did.
Another difficulty is that the financial transactions carried out by each of the 18,000 industrial sites that benefited from free allowances are published retrospectively by the EU, with a three-year time lag. At present, while allocations of free allowances are known up to 2022, the latest available figures for resales are for 2019. And they don't tell the whole story.
As some plants have changed hands, it is impossible to reconstruct the history of transactions site by site. The European Union Transaction Logs (EUTL) – which Le Monde worked on with the help of the database on the EUETS.info website, make it possible to trace, by date and time, the exchanges of allowances carried out between operators. However, they do not reveal any changes in ownership of industrial facilities that may have occurred over the period studied (2005-2019), which contributes to the opacity of this market.
Swiss cement manufacturer Holcim refused to comment on the figures, on the grounds that its scope of consolidation has changed since its 2015 merger with Lafarge, which led to the sale of cement plants by the new entity. The same goes for Germany's Heidelberg Materials (ex-HeidelbergCement), which has radically altered its network of cement plants in Europe, following its 2016 takeover of Italy's Italcementi and its French branch Ciments Calcia.
Spain's Cementos Portland Valderrivas became the leader on the Iberian Peninsula when it took control of Uniland in 2006, but only regained full ownership of the company in 2013 after selling its subsidiary Cementos Lemona to Ireland's CRH. Its competitor, Cementos Molins, pointed out that in 2013 it acquired a plant from Mexico's Cemex in Barcelona, which it claims "distorts" the balance of its quota exchanges. Their Brazilian colleague Votorantim Cimentos is in the same situation, having only entered the Iberian market in 2012 by taking over the sites of Portugal's Cimpor.
'Surplus' companies
One thing is certain: A group like ArcelorMittal has always received more free quotas than it emitted in CO2. And that's still the case today. The steel giant resold large quantities in 2008, and again in 2011 and 2012. However, the level of its emissions remained such that it also had to reach into its pocket in some years, in order to acquire some on the carbon market. In total, according to EUTL records, between 2005 and 2019, the steel giant sold €3.7 billion worth of allowances and bought €1.8 billion, generating a margin of €1.9 billion. When contacted by Le Monde, ArcelorMittal France was unable to confirm these figures.
Again according to EUTL records, Holcim had a surplus of pollution rights until 2017. It sold many allowances from 2008 to 2012 before merging with Lafarge, which also sold a lot of allowances. In total, the two companies now merged would have sold €1.3 billion and bought €339 million to date, for a positive balance of €986 million. The amounts are buried in the Group's accounts and are impossible to trace in annual reports. "Transaction data is business data, which we do not communicate," said Lafarge France.
Their competitor, Heidelberg Materials, had a surplus until 2016. This major player in European cement, present in France through its Ciments Calcia brand and in Spain with the Sociedad Financiera y Minera cement plants, is also said to have disposed of a significant quantity of allowances after the 2008 financial crisis, for a total of €732 million, but ceased this practice in 2016 and also purchased €364 million, making a profit of €368 million. According to a spokesperson, the German firm "unfortunately does not have this information."
In Spain, Cementos Portland Valderrivas, a subsidiary of public works giant FCC, is one of the biggest CO2 emitters. From 2008 to 2012, it received an inordinate volume of rights to pollute each year, completely out of proportion to its actual emissions. The surplus did not end until 2021. It is said to have sold some of these rights, pocketing €288 million, and buying €11 million, for a profit of €277 million. The company refused to comment on these figures. "Our policy is not to participate in journalistic investigations," Le Monde was told.
'Cut the losses'
Nevertheless, some of these transactions can be found in the annual accounts filed with the Commercial Registry by its subsidiary Cementos Alfa. Until 2021, a line explicitly entitled "sale of greenhouse gas emission rights" appeared in the company's balance sheets, confirming that quotas are indeed considered an asset and that they are managed by the company's finance department, and not by the environment or sustainable development departments.
"Some companies sold a lot [of quotas] in 2012, 2014 or even 2018, years that correspond either to the introduction of stricter free allowance allocation criteria, or to periods when carbon prices were high," said Florian Rothenberg, carbon market analyst at ICIS consulting.
On the ground, testimonials confirm that the financial storm of 2008 precipitated quota sales. "At the time, our managers' only concern was to cut the losses. It was in this climate of crisis that some cement plants began to sell their pollution rights, which they no longer needed, due to the drastic fall in activity. Since then, European and Spanish regulations have evolved considerably to better encourage the gradual reduction of the industry's carbon emissions and discourage speculation on the CO2 market," said Daniel Lopez Caro, representative of the UGT union's industrial federation within the cement sector.
Absolute secrecy
As several French and Spanish trade unionists have said, employee representatives attending meetings with management are bound to absolute secrecy on the subject. They are made to sign confidentiality agreements, which no one dares to break for fear of being taken to court, as has already happened at ArcelorMittal. A source contacted by Le Monde, who had access to the accounts of one of the companies concerned, confirmed that this practice does indeed take place: "As recently as 2022, our managers resold quotas for tens of millions of euros. These sums are used to restore the company's net income when the year has been average."
"I know what my company pocketed by auctioning off quotas that it obtained free of charge, but I swore an oath to the works council not to divulge the figures. All I can say is that the money was used to balance the books to the tune of €6 to €10 million a year when times were tough," said a Spanish trade unionist, under the seal of secrecy. Another anonymous trade union source confirmed this practice at the steelworks: "At the time of the crisis at Florange, ArcelorMittal was receiving free quotas even though the site was shut down. It was a deception because this money was not used to reduce CO2 emissions or to invest in clean energy. It was an unhoped-for windfall of money that they obviously pounced on," she said.
"We were given figures orally and, most of the time, we said nothing, because management explained to us that by selling the quotas, they had saved our jobs. So we turned a blind eye. We preferred not to know," said a former Holcim Spain employee. "Everyone knows where the money ended up, but unfortunately it's impossible to demonstrate a direct link between the sale of quotas and the dividends distributed to these companies' shareholders," said Judith Kirton-Darling, general secretary of IndustriALL Europe, the European industrial workers' union.
According to Sam Van den plas, Campaign Director at Carbon Market Watch, an NGO that has been following the free quota affair for several years, the mystery is now over: "We finally know what companies have done with their rights to pollute. Up until now, we only had hypotheses," he said, referring to a study by CE Delft, which estimated in 2016 that free quota sales amounted to several billion euros.
Jadot believes the system of free quotas is "beyond moral judgment": "The whole thing is scandalous, as is the possibility of buying rights to pollute in African countries. It's a way of shirking responsibility and falsely practicing decarbonization," he said. "Companies have hijacked the concept of free quotas to make a profit, which raises an ethical question. At a time when we're trying to save the planet, some people are lining their own pockets. It's shameless," said Ana Isabel Martinez Garcia, a steel sector specialist with the Syndex accounting and consulting firm. It's shameless but legal.
Tufan Erginbilgic believes SMRs will play a pivotal role in helping to decarbonise electricity grids across the continent CREDIT: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg/ Editing by Germán & Co Europe cannot reach net zero without nuclear, Rolls-Royce chief says
Claims come against backdrop of division within EU over how to approach clean energy
The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, 20 June 2023Europe cannot reach its target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 unless it embraces nuclear power, the chief executive of Rolls-Royce has said.
Tufan Erginbilgic claimed that new small reactors of the sort being developed by his company would play a pivotal role in helping to decarbonise electricity grids across the continent.
Speaking at the Paris Air Show, he said: “I’m not sure, without nuclear, Europe can go to a net zero world. SMR [small modular reactors], frankly, relative to the traditional nuclear power plant, has lots of advantages, because it is much smaller. And therefore the risk profile is much smaller.”
Mr Erginbilgic’s comments come against a backdrop of division within the European Union over how to approach nuclear power.
Some members, such as Germany and Denmark, have a more circumspect approach to nuclear and want more wind and solar sources. Others, including France, are keen to push ahead with the development of new nuclear power.
Rolls-Royce is developing so-called SMRs that are far smaller and cheaper than existing large-scale generators. It hopes the plants can offer zero-carbon power to decarbonise homes, industry and also make green hydrogen for the airline industry.
The company is pushing the UK to place cornerstone orders for the products. However, the Government is running a competitive process and looking at various rival designs. An update is expected as early as October.
Mr Erginbilgic said: “Our technology is very robust. I’m confident that our technology will actually prevail in that process.”
However, he renewed his plea for the government to make “firm commitments” on orders for the reactors. Rolls-Royce has argued that orders from the state will help attract private sector buyers and investment to get the technology off the ground.
In February, Mr Erginbilgic warned that Britain risks squandering its role as a leader in mini-nuclear reactor technology if ministers failed to support its SMRs.
Rolls-Royce is competing with dozens of other companies. It has ambitions to eventually build about 30 SMRs, each with a capacity of about 470 megawatts, which will supply millions of homes and businesses with clean electricity.
USA, Nevada: McGinness Hills Geothermal Power Plant Capacity Increased to 138 MW/ Image by Germán & CoClean Geothermal, Green Earth: Sinopec to Host World Geothermal Congress 2023
In 22 cities, Sinopec Star has built 10 "smoke-free cities" and has installed more than 1 million square meters of geothermal heating. Over 85 million square meters of clean energy heating capacity have been built in Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong provinces, and more, reducing carbon emissions by 4.2 million tons and benefiting millions of households.
BEIJING, June 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (HKG: 0386, "Sinopec") will host the 7th World Geothermal Congress (WGC 2023) from September 15 to 17 in Beijing, China, which will be China's first time hosting the international convention known as the "Olympics of Geothermal." The theme for the WGC 2023 is "Clean Geothermal, Green Earth."
Organized by the International Geothermal Association (IGA), a leading global platform on geothermal energy committed to promoting and supporting global geothermal development, the triennial conference is the premier global event convening the leaders of industry, academia, the finance sector, governments, NGOs, and communities to collaborate and provide thoughtful solutions for a sustainable society.
Sinopec Star Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Sinopec that has been actively exploring the development and utilization of geothermal energy since 2006, is making significant contributions to Sinopec's roadmap of clean energy development and building up a new industry layout.
The company is committed to promoting scaled development of its "Geothermal+" business model to further expand carbon asset volume and improve service quality while integrating into major regional and national economic and ecological development strategies to push forward clean energy heating.
As of now, Sinopec Star has built 10 "smoke-free cities" in China and boasts more than 1 million square meters of geothermal heating capacity in 22 cities. It has built nearly 85 million square meters of clean energy heating capacity, serving more than 60 cities and counties in Tianjin, Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong provinces, and more, thereby reducing carbon emissions by 4.2 million tons per year while benefiting millions of households.
Globally, Sinopec Star is actively pursuing cooperation opportunities with international institutions, organizations, and partners. It has established alliances which Icelandic companies, landed a series of pilot geothermal projects in China, led the establishment of a Sino-Icelandic Geothermal R&D Center with Iceland's Arctic Green Energy, and hosted international geothermal conferences and workshops to continually strengthen global cooperation while expanding the brand's influence.
In addition, Sinopec Star has drafted 52 industry standards that have been approved and cover a wide scope, including geothermal resource exploration and evaluation, geothermal heating, and more. It actively participates in constructing the geothermal international standard system, winning the market's trust with leading standards.
News round-up, June 20, 2023
Today…
Ursula von der Leyen's perilous journey to Latin America as President of the European Union
”Europe is coming back, but not at full speed…
Despite Latin America has been in the U.S. backyard, China has wise and strategically colonized the region in the past two decades.
Pandemic worsened poverty in Latin America. The EU's health reliance shifted towards Russia and China due to delayed release of Western vaccines, leading to criticism.
On the hunt for Latin American lithium. LA's abundant lithium resources and the potential for green hydrogen development make it appealing to superpowers. The European Union is countering the growing influence of Asian giants in Latin America through the Global Gateway program.
The region's president warned European Union President Ursula Von Der Leyen that nothing could be given away for free.
Most read..
Beijing Plans a New Training Facility in Cuba, Raising Prospect of Chinese Troops on America’s Doorstep
Biden administration scrambles to forestall China’s ambitions in the Caribbean
WSJ By Warren P. Strobel, Gordon Lubold, Vivian Salama and Michael R. Gordon, June 20, 2023The near-infinite energy source that could win Britain’s net zero race
Deep geothermal energy aims to fill the gaps in the country’s green power supply
The Telegraph By Matt Oliver, 20 June 2023 Qatar strikes second big LNG supply deal with China
The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement in which China will buy 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf Arab state.
REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El Dahan, June 20, 2023As Modi visits White House, India’s reliance on Russian arms constrains him
The BrahMos missile illustrates how India's long-standing reliance on Russia for military equipment and technology limits New Delhi's ability to align with the West in confronting Russia over its war in Ukraine, as President Biden welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week. India has not condemned the invasion, much to Washington's chagrin.
WP By Karishma Mehrotra, June 20, 2023Image President of EU Ursula von der LeyenToday…
Ursula von der Leyen's perilous journey to Latin America as President of the European Union
”Europe is coming back, but not at full speed…
Despite Latin America has been in the U.S. backyard, China has wise and strategically colonized the region in the past two decades.
Pandemic worsened poverty in Latin America. The EU's health reliance shifted towards Russia and China due to delayed release of Western vaccines, leading to criticism.
On the hunt for Latin American lithium. LA's abundant lithium resources and the potential for green hydrogen development make it appealing to superpowers. The European Union is countering the growing influence of Asian giants in Latin America through the Global Gateway program.
The region's president warned European Union President Ursula Von Der Leyen that nothing could be given away for free.
“Latin America has always been in the United States' backyard…
Latin America, and the Caribbean have strong connections with the United States through geography, commerce, and family ties, but the region is facing unprecedented challenges that could impact our security and prosperity. The pandemic worsened existing issues, increasing inequality and insecurity, and leading to more migration to the U.S.
As a result of dissatisfaction with previous government performance, the region has shifted to the left, with populist authoritarian governments consolidating power in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Argentina, Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, and Chile have all faced crises and anti-democratic manifestations.
Governments may, however, reduce their cooperation with the US on critical issues, allowing rivals such as China, Russia, and Iran to expand their regional presence. The Biden administration has regional diplomacy expertise and policy documents. The bill emphasizes the importance of a public debate to address issues such as resource allocation, interagency efforts, and the root causes of regional issues.
“China, on the other hand...
Beijing's strategy for boosting China's influence in Latin America and the Caribbean. Chinese state-owned enterprises, with government backing, have invested in Latin America since 2005, driving China's expansion in the region, particularly in the last decade. The pandemic has temporarily slowed progress. This includes $314 billion in PRC trade and $136 billion in loans from PRC policy banks. China invests in industries like oil, mining (including strategic minerals like lithium), agro-logistics, forestry, and fishing to ensure access to commodities and food for its people. Chinese companies prioritize secure connectivity to strategic markets and technologies in various sectors, including electricity, biotech, transportation, logistics, telecom, smart cities, A.I., and e-commerce. Bilateral engagement, including free trade agreements and strategic partnerships, has facilitated progress in critical areas.
They have collaborated with the Inter-American Development Bank and United Nations Economic Commission and participated in forums such as BRICS and Caribbean Development Bank to achieve their goals. They collaborated with CELAC to coordinate regional engagement plans, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The PRC employs "people-to-people" diplomacy in Latin America through Confucius Institutes, scholarships, and sponsored trips for academics, analysts, journalists, and politicians via the Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Department. China supports Latin American media.
PCR's military involvement in the region is a cause for concern. They supply armaments, train personnel, send warships and military delegations, and covertly involve themselves in strategic infrastructure development, such as ports (Honduras). Recent information on a base in Cuba highlights the extent of their involvement.
The US authorities' inadequate response to a recent development has sparked intense debate in political studies circles, causing confusion and concern. China has reportedly reached out to Havana to establish another espionage facility in Cuba, according to —The Wall Street Journal and POLITICO—. The White House and the Pentagon both issued statements on the same day refuting the accuracy of the reporting. They did not explain their objections. A Biden administration official accuses China of espionage against the US. The speaker claimed the current administration inherited the issue. The administration has taken action to address the matter, said the official. To hold China accountable, measures like cybersecurity and diplomacy are being improved. The US will seek other ways to hold China accountable for its actions. The administration is determined to protect the US from China's malicious activities.
The pandemic has made the region more vulnerable to China's influence as it supplies vaccines and medical aid and purchases goods. And China's institutions fund significant projects like Peru's Chancay port, Mexico's Maya train, and Argentina's $8 billion Hualong-1 reactor.
Who is Ursula von der Leyen?
The current leader of the European Union, has been entrusted with the responsibility of addressing the multifaceted challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and an invasion that has further aggravated the pre-existing global economic crisis and the aftermath of the pandemic.
Ursula von der Leyen is a German politician born in Brussels, Belgium, in 1958. Whit studied in economics at three institutions and earned a degree from Hanover Medical School (MHH) in 1991.
Ursula von der Leyen started politics in 1996 and became a minister in Angela Merkel's first administration. She oversees family affairs, senior citizens, women, and youth. Von der Leyen was the first female German Minister of Defense from 2013 to 2019. In July 2019. In 2015, Europe saw a significant influx of refugees, leading to the implementation of anti-immigration policies backed by Angela Merkel and Francois Zarcozy, who both have Jewish ancestry. These measures faced strong condemnation for their harsh treatment of minority groups, including the Roma community.
…”The crisis significantly impacted the region's political, social, and economic domains. Angela Merkel's downfall is often attributed to her policy during the 2015 migrant crisis. Germany's net migration figure doubled to 1.1 million that year. Despite the Dublin Agreement, Merkel made Germany the largest destination for refugees in Europe as the continent struggled to cope. The refugee crisis remains a defining moment in Merkel's leadership, signalling her loss of power.
Whem in October 2018, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek another term as CDU leader. Ursula von der Leyen was nominated for European Commission President. Her confirmation was narrowly secured with 383 out of 747 votes cast. The former German Defense Minister resigned and was succeeded by Kramp-Karrenbauer. The cabinet formation was delayed by one month due to disagreements regarding its composition.
Von der Leyen, since taking office, COVID-19 has caused global fatalities and disruptions. EU member states have reintroduced border controls. 75% of EU citizens will receive at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by the end of 2021. Russia has increased its military presence in several regions, including Western Russia, Crimea, Belarus, and Transdniestria in Moldova. EU leaders sought to prevent a the Russian invasion of Ukraine reduced its dependence on Russian gas exports. In February 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine marked the most significant European conflict since World War II. Von der Leyen has pledged €500 million in direct military aid to Ukraine, marking the EU's first weapons financing for a country under attack.
On the Global Gateway Program for Latin America and von der Leyen trip...
The EU's Global Gateway program promotes sustainable development and cooperation with partners. The focus is on improving intelligent, clean, and secure connections in digital, energy, and transportation sectors, as well as global health, education, and research systems. The EU and its member states will invest €300 billion in sustainable projects from 2021 to 2027 for lasting benefits to communities and partner countries. The Global Gateway aligns with UN’s Agenda 2030, Sustainable Development Goals, and Paris Agreement.
The EU is countering China's influence in Latin America through diplomacy. Ursula von der Leyen's recent visit to South America marks the first in a decade. The promise is to invest €10 billion and sign supply agreements for regional strategic materials, but Brazil and Argentina oppose unravelling Mercosur due to their concerns. Europe aims to regain lost ground in China, the top trading partner in South America and second in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Von der Leyen pledges €10 billion in investments and strategic material agreements but faces opposition from Brazil and Argentina in dismantling Mercosur. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen informed Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the EU's plan to strengthen its partnership with Brazil during her recent visit. Argentina, Chile, and Mexico followed Brazil. The EU is trying to cancel the Mercosur agreement, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and is the fifth largest non-EU economic area.
Latin America is a natural choice for rare earth, but the region is cautious about European interest and the Mercosur agreement. Lula and Fernández see the pact as mutually beneficial, but some believe it favor’s the community club.
”Europe is coming back, but not at full speed…
According to Beata Wojna, a professor of Instituto de Relaciones Internacionales del Tecnologico de Monterrey in Mexico, Europe is coming back, but not at full speed. The EU has acknowledged Latin America's political and economic distancing. The pandemic widened the gap as the EU faced backlash for not releasing Western vaccines while Russia and China did.
Von der Leyen is committed to addressing the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine. It surpasses European companies' combined investments in China, India, Japan, and Russia. Chinese influence is rapidly expanding. Bilateral trade in goods between Latin America and Asia has grown 26 times, from €11B to €287B in 2020. It is expected to surpass $700 billion by 000. Beijing has signed free trade agreements with Peru, Costa Rica, and Chile and completed technical negotiations with Ecuador. Negotiations with Uruguay continue. Javi López, MEP and co-president of EuroLat, recommends that the EU prioritize China's unique value to the region instead of obsessing over its role.
The Union wants an alliance, not dependence. The Members of European Parliament (MEP) attributes our economy's compatibility with Latin America to its non-destructive nature. Chinese enterprises receive government subsidies and must follow state labour and environmental policies. Latin American governments prioritize industrial development over raw material sales. We must show the value of our investments beyond extraction," he says. The EU partners with seven Latin American countries to promote cooperation on raw materials and secure more lithium supply agreements in the region. China invests billions in lithium production in Mexico, the new El Dorado, and the "lithium triangle" (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile). Von der Leyen signed an agreement to develop a lithium production chain in Chile and Argentina. Wojna suggests showing genuine interest as a successful strategy.
The professor warns of mistrust and a perception that Europe wants to extract resources from Latin America, leading to a lack of promotion and dissemination.
The President of the Council of the EU, Charles Michel, visited the region after several EU commissioners in recent months. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, has been active. Brussels is looking forward to the EU-CELAC summit in July under Spain's presidency.
Strengthening relations with Latin America is a top priority for Spain, as shown by the recent summit after an eight-year gap. The meeting aims to achieve more than just concrete agreements and economic announcements, such as the investments of 10,000 million euros from the Commission and 9,400 million from Spain. Brussels aims to promote Mercosur, but ratification is blocked by France, Ireland, Austria, and the Netherlands over economic concerns. Von der Leyen emphasized this objective during her visit to Brazil and Argentina. Lula and Fernández, who did not sign, question the EU's proposed letter to be added to the agreement.
The letter addresses new European environmental regulations on deforestation that some in Latin America see as protectionism. Buenos Aires and Brasilia want to renegotiate a harmful part of the agreement. Visiting Mexico, Chile and Brazil, sees von der Leyen's trip as a sign of the EU's commitment to the region and the need for ongoing political efforts to strengthen relations.
The MEP suggests adjusting the letter to Mercosur to prioritize environmental policies, but Professor Wojna fears inflexibility from some EU members or the Commission may cause a missed opportunity. The Amazon's destruction could hinder Mercosur countries from creating certification systems to prevent deforestation in their exports, warns Wojna. According to his prediction, the agreement with Mexico may not be modernized and signed until after the Mexican and European Parliament elections in June 2024 or even as late as 2025.
Most Read…
Beijing Plans a New Training Facility in Cuba, Raising Prospect of Chinese Troops on America’s Doorstep
Biden administration scrambles to forestall China’s ambitions in the Caribbean
WSJ By Warren P. Strobel, Gordon Lubold, Vivian Salama and Michael R. Gordon, June 20, 2023The near-infinite energy source that could win Britain’s net zero race
Deep geothermal energy aims to fill the gaps in the country’s green power supply
The Telegraph By Matt Oliver, 20 June 2023 Qatar strikes second big LNG supply deal with China
The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement in which China will buy 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf Arab state.
REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El Dahan, June 20, 2023Qatar strikes second big LNG supply deal with China
The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement in which China will buy 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf Arab state.
REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El Dahan, June 20, 2023As Modi visits White House, India’s reliance on Russian arms constrains him
The BrahMos missile illustrates how India's long-standing reliance on Russia for military equipment and technology limits New Delhi's ability to align with the West in confronting Russia over its war in Ukraine, as President Biden welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week. India has not condemned the invasion, much to Washington's chagrin.
WP By Karishma Mehrotra, June 20, 2023The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image credit: KremlinBeijing Plans a New Training Facility in Cuba, Raising Prospect of Chinese Troops on America’s Doorstep
Biden administration scrambles to forestall China’s ambitions in the Caribbean
WSJ By Warren P. Strobel, Gordon Lubold, Vivian Salama and Michael R. Gordon, June 20, 2023China and Cuba already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. PHOTO: YANDER ZAMORA/SHUTTERSTOCK
WASHINGTON—China and Cuba are negotiating to establish a new joint military training facility on the island, sparking alarm in Washington that it could lead to the stationing of Chinese troops and other security and intelligence operations just 100 miles off Florida’s coast, according to current and former U.S. officials.
Discussions for the facility on Cuba’s northern coast are at an advanced stage but not concluded, U.S. intelligence reports suggest. The Biden administration has contacted Cuban officials to try to forestall the deal, seeking to tap in to what it thinks might be Cuban concerns about ceding sovereignty. Beijing’s effort to establish a military training facility in Cuba hasn’t been previously reported. The White House declined to comment.
The heightened anxiety in Washington over China’s ambitions in the Caribbean and Latin America comes as the administration is seeking to tamp down broader tensions with Beijing that have been stoked by a host of other issues, including U.S. support for Taiwan. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was on a high-profile visit to China these past few days, meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The trip appeared to halt a downward spiral in relations. But Blinken failed to secure China’s agreement to a U.S. proposal that the two countries resume military-to-military communications to avoid misunderstandings. He also raised U.S. concerns about Chinese intelligence activities in Cuba, according to a State Department statement.
U.S. officials said reference to the proposed new training facility in Cuba is contained in highly classified new U.S. intelligence, which they described as convincing but fragmentary. It is being interpreted with different levels of alarm among policy makers and intelligence analysts.
The Wall Street Journal reported on June 8 that China and Cuba had reached an agreement in principle for a new eavesdropping site in Cuba; the White House characterized that reporting as inaccurate but didn’t elaborate. Two days later, the White House declassified intelligence to confirm publicly that Chinese intelligence collection facilities have existed in Cuba since at least 2019.
Current and former U.S. officials said a new military facility could provide China with a platform to potentially house troops permanently on the island and broaden its intelligence gathering, including electronic eavesdropping, against the U.S.
Most worrying for the U.S.: The planned facility is part of China’s “Project 141,” an initiative by the People’s Liberation Army to expand its global military base and logistical support network, one current and one former U.S. official said.
China and Cuba already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. That network underwent a significant upgrade around 2019, when a single station expanded to a network of four sites that are operated jointly, and Chinese involvement deepened, according to the officials.
There also are signs of changes in the arrangement for those facilities that officials say could signal greater Chinese involvement, though the details are scant. A U.S. intelligence report earlier this year referred to the “centralization” of the management of the four joint sites, but what precisely that entails isn’t clear.
Other Project 141 sites include a deal for a Chinese naval outpost in Cambodia and a military facility whose purpose isn’t publicly known at a port in the United Arab Emirates, a former U.S. official said. None of the previously known Project 141 sites are in the Western Hemisphere.
Some of those facilities include intelligence gathering capabilities as well, including a Chinese base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa, Beijing’s only military base outside the Pacific region, where China has been working to build a facility for gathering signals intelligence.
An official with the Chinese Embassy in Washington referred to comments from a senior foreign ministry spokesman in Beijing on June 9, saying he wasn’t aware of any deal between China and Cuba and saying the U.S. is an “expert in chasing shadows” in other countries and meddling in their affairs.
“We hope that relevant parties can focus more on things that are conducive to enhancing mutual trust and regional peace and stability development,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said when asked about the Cuba negotiations at a regular briefing in Beijing on Tuesday.
Cuba’s embassy in Washington had called the Journal’s earlier report “totally mendacious and unfounded.” The embassy didn’t respond to a request for comment on Monday.
In an interview with CBS News on Monday, Blinken said that the Chinese activities in Cuba were a serious concern for the administration and that he had raised it in his weekend meetings in Beijing.
“We’ve been taking steps over the past couple of years, diplomatically, wherever we’ve seen China trying to create that kind of presence,” he said. “It is something of real concern. I was very clear about our concerns with China.”
U.S.-China tensions have soared in recent months over issues including a Chinese spy balloon that flew over the U.S. before the U.S. military shot it down, and close encounters between the nations’ militaries in the skies and at sea.
Some intelligence officials say that Beijing sees its actions in Cuba as a geographical response to the U.S. relationship with Taiwan: The U.S. invests heavily in arming and training the self-governing island that sits off mainland China and that Beijing sees as its own. The Journal reported that the U.S. has deployed more than 100 troops to Taiwan to train its defense forces.
Taiwan is roughly 100 miles from mainland China, about the same distance Cuba is from Florida.
China has no combat forces in Latin America, according to U.S. officials. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dozens of military bases throughout the Pacific, where it stations more than 350,000 troops. Chinese officials have pointed this out when they push back on American efforts to counter their military expansion outside of the Indo-Pacific.
Some U.S. officials cautioned that the parameters of China’s plans in Cuba aren’t fully known, and said the two countries would move cautiously to expand security ties.
“The intelligence community has assessed for several years that the PRC intends to expand its reach globally, and in this case, it is premature to draw firm conclusions about recent reporting,” a U.S. intelligence official said. “At this stage, it does not appear to be anything that provides much of an enhancement to the current suite of capabilities.”
Any increase in security coordination between China and Cuba “is going to go slowly,” the U.S. intelligence official said.
Cuba, several officials said, has reason to move cautiously, to avoid provoking the U.S. at a time when its economy is in disastrous shape and it is seeking the easing of economic sanctions and travel restrictions imposed by Washington.
The U.S. had been tracking a planned visit to Beijing by a senior Cuban defense official that U.S. officials said they interpreted as representing the next step in the negotiations over the training facility. It wasn’t immediately clear from the latest intelligence if the visit had taken place, but officials said it reflected how close the plans were to becoming formalized.
The Biden administration contacted Cuban officials in Washington to express its concern about the planned facility, officials said.
“We’ve made our concerns known” to the Cuban government, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said earlier this month.
A White House official said Monday that the Chinese government “will keep trying to enhance its presence in Cuba, and we will keep working to disrupt it.”
Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.), the chair and vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in a joint statement earlier this month that they were “deeply disturbed by reports that Havana and Beijing are working together to target the United States and our people.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
A geothermal plant started providing energy for the Eden Project this week. Image CREDIT: Matt Greenwell/PGB/Editing by Germán & Co The near-infinite energy source that could win Britain’s net zero race
Deep geothermal energy aims to fill the gaps in the country’s green power supply
The Telegraph By Matt Oliver, 20 June 2023 The crumbling pumping stations dotting the landscape of the Gwennap district are a visible reminder of the area’s pivotal role in the long-gone Cornish mining boom.
During the Industrial Revolution, the huge output of the district’s copper and tin mines, not far from Redruth, helped garner it a reputation as “richest square mile on earth”.
Today, businesses are digging deep in search of a different sort of treasure: energy.
At United Downs, a stone’s throw from many of the old mines, a pioneering project run by Geothermal Engineering is drawing heat from granite rocks that lie more than three miles below the surface.
It does this by pumping out water warmed to 200 degrees celsius to power a heat exchanger, before being pumped back down again to a shallower well.
From next year, the scheme will provide heat and power to 3,800 homes near Truro, as well as the Royal Cornwall Hospital, local schools and a leisure centre, after receiving £22m in funding from the Government.
Ryan Law, chief executive of Geothermal Engineering, believes it can serve as a template for similar schemes across Britain, at a time when policymakers are exploring what role the technology can play in the race to “net zero”.
It comes as another geothermal plant has also begun generating energy this week for the Eden Project near St Blazey, roughly 20 miles from United Downs.
“Geothermal has really become a hot topic in the last two years,” says Law. “We chose Cornwall because it’s the hottest spot in the UK – and United Downs is sort of the trailblazer.”
Although it can be used to generate power, like wind and solar farms, Law believes geothermal’s real promise lies in heating buildings, providing a viable replacement for gas-fired boilers. About one fifth of the UK’s carbon emissions come from keeping buildings warm, with carbon-free solutions such as electric heat pumps currently too expensive for many households.
The rock underneath Cornwall is hot because it contains small amounts of the radioactive elements uranium, potassium and thorium, Law explains, which over a large area creates “quite a lot of heat”.
This means it can be available all year-round, barring short periods needed for power plant maintenance.
“It is just a massive resource,” adds Law. “It’s like taking buckets out of the ocean. I wouldn’t say it’s infinite, but it is huge.
“And unlike wind and solar, it just keeps going once you switch it on.”
However, he argues geothermal will not compete directly with those renewables, “because it’s a different form of energy”.
“Wind and solar are pretty good at producing large scale electricity, but where geothermal fits into the mix is with this sort of elephant in the room of how we will meet our zero carbon heating targets.
“I see these projects as being installed in areas that need power and heat, for example big swathes of urban areas, because it’s that combination which could see geothermal have a big impact on the UK.”
The company already has two more projects, in Penhallow and Manhay, that have been granted planning permission. They will be even bigger, with Geothermal Engineering aiming to win support for the schemes through the Government’s contracts for difference auction this summer.
The company is seeking about £119 per megawatt hour of electricity generated, although Law says he believes the price for future plants could eventually be two thirds lower based on other projects in operation in the US today.
He also reckons that the cost of drilling the two wells at United Downs – about £24m – can be halved.
Whether this is ultimately possible will depend on demand for geothermal in Britain and the supply chains that grow to serve it.
At the moment, less than 1pc of the country’s energy is generated through geothermal schemes.
But the technology has been pioneered and proven successful elsewhere, including in Iceland, the US, Italy, France and Germany.
In Iceland, 30pc of electricity is now generated from geothermal sources. The resulting power is so cheap it is used to heat greenhouses growing bananas domestically and the freezing country has become a magnet for energy-intensive aluminium producers.
Munich has also pursued geothermal in a big way. Regional energy company Stadtwerke Munich (SWM) now operates six geothermal plants in and around the German city, providing heat and electricity for hundreds of thousands of residents and facilities.
Law claims the example of Munich is proof that the technology can be deployed in densely populated areas with relatively little disruption, despite the need for rigs to drill the wells initially.
In Britain, the most promising areas for development after Cornwall include parts of the North West such as Manchester and swathes of Yorkshire including Hull.
The UK Government is preparing to publish a white paper in the coming weeks that could set out the potential for geothermal energy and where the best opportunities are.
Geothermal energy has proved highly successful in countries such as Iceland, where 30pc of electricity is now generated from geothermal sources CREDIT: LANDSVIRKJUN/AFP via Getty Images
However, the UK currently lacks a specific regulatory regime for geothermal, according to a House of Commons Library report, and both planning and grid connection delays pose challenges.
The Eden Project scheme, for example, could potentially export some power to the grid but has been told it cannot be connected until 2036 at the earliest.
“We would love to turn it into electricity. But it’s a nightmare,” Gus Grand, the boss of Eden Geothermal, told the Financial Times.
Geothermal Engineering’s Law says a key test for the industry will be whether his company’s projects - and others - win funding from a government-run energy auction this summer. There is a specific pot of money earmarked for “developing technologies”.
This will underpin “substantial further investment” from private sources, he says.
Another emerging use of geothermal technology, being developed by his company and others including Cornish Lithium, is the extraction of underground minerals using liquid solutions. This allows resources like lithium – a key material used to make batteries – to be extracted with minimal environmental disruption and zero carbon emissions.
At the same time, as in Iceland, the technology could open up new frontiers for British agriculture. Powering greenhouses would allow British farmers to grow produce from hotter climes here without incurring ruinous energy costs.
“We’re at an inflection point now,” says Law. “I really think we’re at the tip of the iceberg and it’s just a question of maturity.
“If you remember with offshore wind, people said it would never work because it was too expensive.
“Now look at it.”
CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) logo and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo / Editing by Germán & CoQatar strikes second big LNG supply deal with China
The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement in which China will buy 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf Arab state.
REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El Dahan, June 20, 2023DOHA, June 20 (Reuters) - Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead in the race to secure gas supplies from Doha's massive production expansion project.
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement, under which China will purchase 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) a year from the Gulf Arab state.
CNPC will also take an equity stake in the eastern expansion of Qatar's North Field LNG project, QatarEnergy chief Saad al-Kaabi said at the signing.
The stake is the equivalent of 5% of one LNG train with capacity of 8 million metric tons a year.
"Today we are signing two agreements that will further enhance our strong relations with one of the most important gas markets in the world and key market for Qatari energy products," Kaabi said.
In an identical deal, QatarEnergy sealed a 27-year supply agreement with China's Sinopec in November for 4 million metric tons a year. The state-owned Chinese gas giant also took an equity stake equivalent to 5% of one LNG train of 8 million metric tons a year capacity.
Asia, with an appetite for long-term sales and purchase agreements, has outpaced Europe in locking in supply from Qatar's two-phase expansion plan that will raise its liquefaction capacity to 126 million metric tons a year by 2027 from 77 million.
Tuesday's deal will be QatarEnergy's third deal to supply LNG from the expansion to an Asian buyer.
Other Asian buyers are also in talks for equity stakes in the expansion, Kaabi said.
DEALS WITH 'VALUE-ADDED PARTNERS'
Qatar is the world's top LNG exporter and competition for LNG has ramped up since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, with Europe in particular needing vast amounts to help replace Russian pipeline gas that used to make up almost 40% of the continent's imports.
Reuters had earlier reported that CNPC was close to finalising a deal to buy LNG from QatarEnergy over nearly 30 years from the North Field expansion project.
QatarEnergy had previously said that it could give up to 5% stakes in the gas trains linked to its North Field expansion to what Kaabi, the Gulf state's energy minister and CEO of QatarEnergy, described as "value-added partners".
In April, China's Sinopec became the first Asian energy company to become a "value-added" partner in the project.
QatarEnergy has also signed equity partnerships on the project with international oil companies but has said it plans to retain a 75% stake in the North Field expansion, which will cost at least $30 billion including construction of liquefaction export facilities.
As Beijing's ties with the United States and Australia, Qatar's two biggest LNG export rivals, are strained, Chinese national energy firms increasingly see Qatar as a safer target for resource investment.
The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the country's $445 billion sovereign wealth fund, will manage most of the revenues from the North Field expansion," Kaabi said.
"I think the majority of the revenue of what's going to come from this North Field expansion will go into a future generation wealth fund in QIA ... making sure that the Qatari people and people living in Qatar are well taken care of."
Image by Germán & Co via ShuttersockAs Modi visits White House, India’s reliance on Russian arms constrains him
The BrahMos missile illustrates how India's long-standing reliance on Russia for military equipment and technology limits New Delhi's ability to align with the West in confronting Russia over its war in Ukraine, as President Biden welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week. India has not condemned the invasion, much to Washington's chagrin.
WP By Karishma Mehrotra, June 20, 2023Indian soldiers preparing for a Republic Day parade in 2014 sit near BrahMos supersonic missiles, jointly developed by India and Russia. (Saurabh Das/AP)
NEW DELHI — One of India’s most highly regarded weapons is a supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from sea, sky and land. Its name, BrahMos, is a portmanteau of the Brahmaputra River in India and the Moskva River in Russia, which began jointly developing the missile after the fall of the Soviet Union. Indian defense officials call it their “Brahmastra” — a Hindu mythological weapon that can destroy the entire universe.
India sees the missile as an essential part of a military capability that could survive a nuclear attack and has deployed it along its tense border with China. The missile has been supplied to the Philippines, and potential sales to Vietnam and Indonesia are underway.
As President Biden welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week, the BrahMos missile illustrates how India’s long-standing reliance on Russia for military equipment and technology constrains New Delhi’s ability to line up with the West in confronting Russia over its war in Ukraine. To Washington’s disappointment, India has not condemned the invasion.
The arms relationship is “a key driver” of India’s reluctance to vocally oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine, said Richard Rossow, the chair of U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Robust military trade between the countries dates back to the 1960s, and Russian equipment now makes up about 85 percent of the Indian arsenal, according to a team led by Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Russia has supplied fighter aircraft, nuclear submarines, cruise missiles, battle tanks, Kalashnikov rifles and much more. Some of this, such as fighter aircraft, could stay in India’s arsenal till 2065. India will remain dependent on Moscow for spare parts and maintenance for decades to come.
Other forms of Russian influence — including support for India at the United Nations and other international forums, and, since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, discounted crude oil — have all kept India close to Moscow. But experts like Lalwani say that military dependency is the “strongest” and “most durable” bond between the two countries.
“The number of really important countries to the U.S. who have a lot of Russian stuff is small, and India is at the top of that list,” said Chris Clary, a former country director for South Asian affairs in the office of the U.S. secretary of defense and now a professor at the University at Albany. “The big picture is that you don’t end a six-decade relationship quickly. It’s not going to be easy for even a determined national leadership to overcome, and it’s not at all clear to me that the current dispensation in New Delhi is determined.”
During Modi’s visit to Washington this week, U.S. officials will be looking to cut into Russian dominance of India’s military market, with discussions underway about deals to sell 31 armed drones and to jointly produce fighter jet engines involving General Electric, and a new initiative to deepen cooperation in military innovation.
The United States has been seeking to expand its role over the past decade, as military imports from Russia to India have slowly waned. India, the largest importer of weapons in the world, obtained 45 percent of its equipment from Russia in the five years through 2022, down from nearly two-thirds from the five years prior, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
American supplies still represent only 1 percent of the Indian army’s equipment and just about 4 percent of that of the Indian navy and air force, Lalwani said. From 2018 through 2022, according to SIPRI, the estimated value of Russian weapons sold to India was four times that of American weapons.
U.S. officials may not be happy about the Russian cast of India’s military. But they recognize that it’s important these weapons remain effective given the continuing tensions between India and China, which represents the top American concern in Asia, Rossow said.
Defense analysts in India agree that Russian technology is losing any technical edge it had over other suppliers, making deals with the United States more desirable. At the same time, the Ukraine war caused delays in the supply of spare parts from Russia as well as payment issues. Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, said he suspects that Indian leaders are now “regretting” their overreliance on Russia.
Russia’s dominance of the Indian market has deep roots. “Russia historically was willing to extend sophisticated technology to India that frankly the U.S. has not,” said Lisa Curtis, director of Indo-Pacific security at the Center for a New American Security, who previously directed South Asia policy at the U.S. National Security Council.
When the Soviet Union made its first major sale of MiG-21 jets to India in the 1960s, Moscow offered sweeteners that Washington didn’t match, including allowing India to pay in rupees and produce the fighter jets domestically. For decades after, the Russians had a near-monopoly on the Indian military market, charging lower costs than competitors and offering some technology transfers. Russians began to openly extend nuclear-technology sharing in the 1980s, leasing to India a nuclear submarine and supporting India’s nuclear energy production.
Many Indian military officials and planners, especially those who came of age during the Cold War, were scarred by the American decision to side with Pakistan during its 1971 war with India. “There were a lost three decades in the India-U.S. relationship because the Americans felt we were pro-Soviet,” said D.B. Venkatesh Verma, a former Indian ambassador to Russia. “We turned to the Soviets because nothing was on offer for us.”
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, when India was eager to build new trading relationships, the United States remained reluctant to supply military equipment because of concerns over India’s ambitions to develop its nuclear weapons capacity, Verma said.
The nuclear deal finalized in 2008, which saw India and the United States coordinate on nuclear power, marked a major turning point for relations between India and the United States.
“The sentiment toward the U.S. has become a lot warmer over the last 15 years, but it still hasn’t reached the level of strategic empathy that India shared with the Soviet Union and Russia,” said Rajagopalan.
After the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections, the United States became increasingly opposed to countries buying Russian equipment, adopting sanctions in 2017 that restricted the sharing of American technology with countries that bought certain Russian equipment. Despite the sanctions risk, India finalized a deal to buy Russian long-range missiles, known as S-400s, which will likely last another two decades.
The India-Russia relationship “casts a very long shadow into the future,” Verma said. “Hopefully, there is understanding from the U.S. that this is a transition that India should be allowed to make at its own pace, because India is too large and the relationship with Russia is too deep for India to make U-turns.”
Some experts in India already see it turning away from Russia. Happymon Jacob, a professor of disarmament studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, says Indians think of the Russia relationship in “past terms” and the U.S. one in “future terms.”
Senior U.S. defense officials say India began to reduce its reliance on Russia before the Ukraine war, noting that Lockheed Martin is making F-16 wings and C-130J tails in Indian factories. “Is there still a reality that they have to manage in terms of their relationship with Russia? Yes. But the trends are in the right direction,” said one official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon.
News round-up, June 16, 2023
Most read..
US Energy Department among federal agencies breached by Russian ransomware gang
Several American federal agencies were compromised on Thursday in a Russian cyber-extortion gang's global hack of a file-transfer program popular with corporations and governments.
Le Monde with AP, Published today at 6:03 am (Paris)ECB hikes rates to 22-year high and vows to keep going
While the US Federal Reserve is hitting pause on a series on interest rate hikes, the ECB has once again raised rates and says that more are on the way.
Le Monde with AFP, Published yesterday at 6:50 pm (Paris)The Global Economy Looks Like It’s Out of Sync
As central banks go in different directions, most capital markets remain linked to the dollar
WSJ by James Mackintosh, June 16, 2023 Column: Key differences in government spending on the energy transition
Governments globally are investing billions to speed up the energy transition, reduce costs, and drive innovation in fuels and power technologies. However, there are significant differences in government funding priorities, with the United States heavily investing in low-carbon electricity and transportation systems. Private sector companies are investing in clean energy.
Reuters by Gavin Maguire, June 15, 2023, editing by Germán & CoOpinion | A Trump Pardon Could Drain Poison from the System
If Trump loses in 2024, sparing him jail time could ease our divided politics.
POLITICO USA, Opinion by RICH LOWRY, June 15, 2023 Image of ECB President Christine Lagarde / editing by Germán & CoToday…
" It appears that the future readers' souls had forewarned us about the dangers of Triton…
The international media reported this morning on a significant cybersecurity breach in the United States.
Yesterday, there was a significant discussion and warning regarding the Triton malware, which has been classified as the —world's most lethal—. The focus was on its capability to disable safety mechanisms in industrial facilities remotely. This subject has attracted significant attention from cybersecurity experts, particularly within the energy sector. Today's disclosure of a substantial cybersecurity breach in the United States, as reported by the international media, is a matter of great concern. The Energy Department, along with several other federal agencies, has been targeted by a global cyber-attack carried out by a Russian cyber-extortion group. This security breach specifically targeted a widely utilized file-transfer program that is highly favored by both corporate entities and governmental organizations. The potential ramifications could have been more severe; nevertheless, officials from the Department of Homeland Security have asserted that this campaign was promptly identified. According to Jen Easterly, the Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the nature of this attack is predominantly opportunistic, rather than being driven by the intention to gain broader access or steal high-value information. The revelation that a significant number of individuals, including professionals in various industries, higher education institutions, and state motor vehicle agencies, may have encountered unfavorable outcomes is deeply unsettling.
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US Energy Department among federal agencies breached by Russian ransomware gang
Several American federal agencies were compromised on Thursday in a Russian cyber-extortion gang's global hack of a file-transfer program popular with corporations and governments.
Le Monde with AP, Published today at 6:03 am (Paris)ECB hikes rates to 22-year high and vows to keep going
While the US Federal Reserve is hitting pause on a series on interest rate hikes, the ECB has once again raised rates and says that more are on the way.
Le Monde with AFP, Published yesterday at 6:50 pm (Paris)
The Global Economy Looks Like It’s Out of Sync
As central banks go in different directions, most capital markets remain linked to the dollar
WSJ by James Mackintosh, June 16, 2023 Column: Key differences in government spending on the energy transition
Governments globally are investing billions to speed up the energy transition, reduce costs, and drive innovation in fuels and power technologies. However, there are significant differences in government funding priorities, with the United States heavily investing in low-carbon electricity and transportation systems. Private sector companies are investing in clean energy.
Reuters by Gavin Maguire, June 15, 2023, editing by Germán & CoOpinion | A Trump Pardon Could Drain Poison from the System
If Trump loses in 2024, sparing him jail time could ease our divided politics.
POLITICO USA, Opinion by RICH LOWRY, June 15, 2023 The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
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Image credit: by Germán & CoUS Energy Department among federal agencies breached by Russian ransomware gang
Several American federal agencies were compromised on Thursday in a Russian cyber-extortion gang's global hack of a file-transfer program popular with corporations and governments.
Le Monde with AP, Published today at 6:03 am (Paris)The Department of Energy and several other federal agencies were compromised in a Russian cyber-extortion gang's global hack of a file-transfer program popular with corporations and governments, but the impact was not expected to be great, Homeland Security officials said Thursday, June 15.
But for others among what could be hundreds of victims from industry to higher education – including patrons of at least two state motor vehicle agencies – the hack was beginning to show some serious impacts.
Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, told reporters that unlike the meticulous, stealthy SolarWinds hacking campaign attributed to state-backed Russian intelligence agents that was months in the making, this campaign was short, relatively superficial and caught quickly. "Based on discussions we have had with industry partners ... these intrusions are not being leveraged to gain broader access, to gain persistence into targeted systems, or to steal specific high value information— in sum, as we understand it, this attack is largely an opportunistic one," Easterly said.
"Although we are very concerned about this campaign and working on it with urgency, this is not a campaign like SolarWinds that presents a systemic risk to our national security or our nation’s networks," she added.
British Airways and the BBC also targeted
A senior CISA official said neither the US military nor intelligence community was affected. Energy Department spokesperson Chad Smith said two agency entities were compromised but did not provide more detail.
Known victims to date include Louisiana’s Office of Motor Vehicles, Oregon's Department of Transportation, the Nova Scotia provincial government, British Airways, the British Broadcasting Company and the UK drugstore chain Boots. The exploited program, MOVEit, is widely used by businesses to securely share files. Security experts say that can include sensitive financial and insurance data.
The Cl0p ransomware syndicate behind the hack announced last week on its dark web site that its victims, who it suggested numbered in the hundreds, had until Wednesday to get in touch to negotiate a ransom or risk having sensitive stolen data dumped online.
The gang, among the world’s most prolific cybercrime syndicates, also claimed it would delete any data stolen from governments, cities and police departments.
The senior CISA official told reporters a "small number" of federal agencies were hit – declining to name them – and said "this is not a widespread campaign affecting a large number of federal agencies." The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the breach, said no federal agencies had received extortion demands and no data from an affected federal agency had been leaked online by Cl0p. US officials "have no evidence to suggest coordination between Cl0p and the Russian government," the official said.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image editing by Germán & CoECB hikes rates to 22-year high and vows to keep going
While the US Federal Reserve is hitting pause on a series on interest rate hikes, the ECB has once again raised rates and says that more are on the way.
Le Monde with AFP, Published yesterday at 6:50 pm (Paris)
The European Central Bank hiked interest rates to a 22-year high Thursday and said another increase in July was "very likely", as it pushed ahead with its fight against inflation despite a darkening eurozone economy.
The ECB's governing council increased rates by a further 25 basis points, taking the closely-watched deposit rate to 3.50% – its highest level since 2001.
"Inflation has been coming down but is projected to remain too high for too long," ECB President Christine Lagarde said. The move comes a day after the US Federal Reserve held off from raising rates after 10 straight increases.
"We're not thinking about pausing," Lagarde said, adding that the ECB still has "ground to cover" on rates after the Frankfurt institution lifted its inflation outlook for 2023-2025 in fresh forecasts on Thursday. "Barring a material change to our baseline, it is very likely the case that we will continue to increase rates in July," she told reporters.
The ECB has lifted borrowing costs at the fastest rate ever to combat red-hot inflation after Russia's war in Ukraine sent food and energy prices soaring, raising its key rates by 4.00 percentage points since July.
Eurozone inflation slowed to 6.1% in May year-on-year, down from a peak of 10.6% in October, mainly thanks to rapidly falling energy costs. The ECB said its inflation-busting efforts were "gradually having an impact", with loan demand slowing sharply as higher borrowing costs take their toll on eurozone households and firms.
But inflation remains three times above the ECB's target while core inflation – which strips out volatile food and energy prices – eased only slightly to 5.3% in May, after 5.6% in April. Lagarde reiterated on Thursday that the ECB will "follow a data-dependent approach" as it charts the way forward.
"The ECB simply cannot afford to be wrong on inflation," said ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski. "The bank wants and has to be sure that it has slayed the inflation dragon before considering a policy change."
'Not satisfactory'
Like all central banks, the ECB has to walk a fine line in raising interest rates sufficiently to dampen demand and contain inflation, without provoking a sharp economic slowdown in the process. But the eurozone economy has proved less resilient than initially thought.
Revised data last week showed that the economy in the 20-nation currency union shrank by 0.1% for two straight quarters at the end of 2022 and the start of 2023, meeting the technical definition of a recession. While still mild, the surprise winter slump has cast doubt on more optimistic economic forecasts for 2023.
In updated forecasts, the ECB now sees the eurozone economy growing by 0.9% in 2023 – down from 1.0% previously. Lagarde said the economy would "strengthen in the course of the year" as inflation slows, supply chains ease and the service sector remains resilient. But she stressed that the outlook remained "highly uncertain", citing Russia's war in Ukraine and potentially weak global growth among the risk factors.
'Tit-for-tat' price surges
Thursday's updated projections also showed inflation reaching 5.4% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 – a 0.1-percentage-point increase for each year from its last forecasts in March. With the ECB's 2% target still out of reach by 2025, Lagarde called the outlook "not satisfactory".
Wage pressures were becoming an "increasingly important source" of inflation, she said, as workers – boosted by record-low eurozone unemployment – push for pay rises to help compensate for the higher cost of living. She also expressed concern about high corporate profits, urging companies and employees to avoid a "tit-for-tat" where both sides sought full compensation for inflation – potentially creating an unwanted spiral of price rises.
The ECB was watching the discussions and developments between the different parties in the labour market closely, Lagarde said. The central bank "will take all necessary measures to return inflation to two percent. That they can count on," she said. "And we are confident that we will get there."
Image credit by Germán & CoThe Global Economy Looks Like It’s Out of Sync
As central banks go in different directions, most capital markets remain linked to the dollar
WSJ by James Mackintosh, June 16, 2023 While the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish statement, Chair Jerome Powell held what markets viewed as a dovish press conference Wednesday. Photo: Sarah Silbiger
In just 24 hours this past week the central banks of the world’s three biggest economic blocs came to starkly different conclusions, with the eurozone raising rates, the U.S. on hold and the Chinese cutting. It’s getting harder for investors to understand the global economy—and potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation.
The conflicting moves are caused by economies increasingly moving to local rhythms. Europe is in a technical recession, but the central bank expects inflation to last. China has no inflation problem but is suffering from the aftermath of its extended lockdowns and property bubble. The U.S. economy is doing surprisingly well, and inflation has plunged, but underlying price increases remain stubbornly high.
The global divergence has already swung currencies. China’s yuan has weakened this year, which should make its exports more competitive, crimp imports and help its economy. Except when China goes for all-out stimulus or intervention as in 2009 or after its 2015 stock bubble burst, its markets have their own beat. Capital controls and fear of expropriation mean they aren’t tightly integrated into global portfolios.
More important for U.S. investors are the moves in Europe, where the European Central Bank and the Bank of England—which will decide on its rate next week—are now seen by investors as more hawkish than the Fed. That’s driving up their bond yields, and pushing down the dollar against the euro and sterling.
In itself, such moves are exactly what’s meant to happen. The whole point of having a floating currency is to free central banks to set rates according to the issues their own economies face. The problem comes from the sensitivity of investors to dollar weakness, and the knock-on boost to confidence it brings.
Americans aren’t used to thinking about their investments in other currencies. The dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency makes it the standard for measuring value, as well as for global transactions. But the dollar still has a profound effect, just one that U.S. investors often miss.
It is potentially getting harder for the Federal Reserve to put a lid on inflation. PHOTO: NATHAN HOWARD/BLOOMBERG NEWS
When the dollar goes up, Americans are richer in that they can buy more foreign stuff with the same money. But recently they’re likely to feel poorer, because the dollar and stocks have been moving in opposite directions. Historically the two were closely linked only in crises, when the dollar was bought as a haven and stocks were dumped because of their risk. After 2008, the dollar-up, stocks-down relationship strengthened, and since the stock selloff began in 2022 the link has been even stronger, with weekly moves in the dollar explaining about half the move in the S&P 500.
What effects do you think will stem from an asynchronous global economy?Join the conversation below.
One way to think about this is that as the Fed raised rates, the dollar, up until the autumn, strengthened sharply, which hurt U.S. stocks. But then the ECB and Bank of England became serious about rate rises, the dollar began to weaken, and the bull market in U.S. stocks kicked off.
See American stocks as Europeans do, and in euros they never fell the 20% usually defined as a bear market, nor did they rebound so much as to be in a new bull market. The drama was in the currency, not stocks.
This might seem like a perverse outcome, and makes things harder for the Fed. In principle, higher rates in Europe should damp demand, including for U.S. exports to the region, while also pushing up U.S. yields, as some investors switch to higher-yielding European bonds. Both these things should be bad for the U.S. economy, and bad for U.S. stocks.
But as long as investors stick with the idea that the dollar and stocks move in opposite directions, the weaker dollar alone means American shareholders feel richer, even if they have the same purchasing power in foreign-currency terms. And investors who feel flush tend to borrow and spend more, supporting the economy—exactly the opposite of the slowdown the Fed wants. It also boosts the competitiveness of U.S. production, again supporting the economy. Without the Fed doing anything, rate rises elsewhere might give the U.S. a boost.
The weak dollar has a perverse effect elsewhere, too. Because capital markets are integrated, lots of countries and companies borrow in dollars, and many big global investors think in dollars, a weak dollar makes everyone feel positive. European stocks in local-currency terms and emerging markets excluding China have risen almost exactly as much as the S&P 500 as the dollar weakened.
Even as economies and central banks diverge, most capital markets remain tightly integrated and linked to a common global force: the dollar
Image: REUTERS/Stephane Mahe/ Editing by Germán & CoColumn: Key differences in government spending on the energy transition
Governments globally are investing billions to speed up the energy transition, reduce costs, and drive innovation in fuels and power technologies. However, there are significant differences in government funding priorities, with the United States heavily investing in low-carbon electricity and transportation systems. Private sector companies are investing in clean energy.
Reuters by Gavin Maguire, June 15, 2023, editing by Germán & CoLITTLETON, Colorado, June 14 (Reuters) - Governments across the world are doling out billions of dollars worth of investments and subsidies to help accelerate the energy transition, reduce energy costs for consumers, and spur innovation in fuels and power-sector technologies.
But while all authorities are spending big in the energy space in general, there are important differences in where key governments are focusing their funds, most starkly between the United States and the governments of Europe.
Both regions have shared aspirations in terms of emissions reduction goals, but have so far taken vastly different funding approaches that have potentially significant implications for the pace of energy sector decarbonisation efforts and the emergence of future industry champions.
Private sector players in the United States and Europe, as well as in Asia and the rest of the world, are also embarking on their own investment campaigns in the clean energy space, and stand to have an equally significant impact on the sector.
Government spending on clean energy, energy affordability & energy efficiency
But in all regions corporations rely on the government to provide critical funding in areas such as early-stage research and development, and in helping to set key goals for industries that can make or break individual companies.
As such, the scale and trajectory of government support in the clean energy space is of critical importance in all major economies.
US: SPURRING CHANGE
Fuelled in large part by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, the United States has the world's largest government-funded war chest, estimated at $560 billion by the International Energy Agency (IEA), to be deployed on energy transition and energy efficiency measures.
More than $210 billion (37.6% of total) is earmarked for the development of low-carbon electricity and related efforts to aid the power sector's switch away from fossil fuels.
Companies engaged in the production of renewable energy equipment, in the deployment of clean energy supplies, and in the switching out of fossil fuel power for renewable systems are also eligible for tax breaks and other incentives.
An additional $140 billion (25%) is tied to reducing the carbon footprint of the country's transportation systems, including $66 billion for high-speed rail systems and around $40 billion in grants for public transport system upgrades.
Subsidies are also available for manufacturers of electric vehicles and batteries, and U.S. consumers can qualify for tax credits for electric vehicle purchases.
Nearly $80 billion (14%) is available for the development of clean fuels and for innovation in fuel technology, with the intention of creating a virtuous circle of production and consumption of green energy products within the United States.
EUROPE: SHIELDING CONSUMERS
While the United States is deploying over 60% of its government funding on low-carbon electricity and transport system overhauls, energy affordability has been by far the single largest focus of government spending in Europe.
Germany, Europe's largest economy, has the largest government spending total in the region ($339 billion), and has earmarked over $240 billion (72.6% of total) for an array of energy affordability measures.
Price caps on electricity and heating costs, capital injections into ailing utilities, and relief packages for cash-strapped households and businesses shell shocked by the surge in power costs account for nearly three quarters of the government spending on clean energy seen so far, IEA data shows.
France, Britain, Poland, Czechia, Croatia, Finland, Portugal and Greece, among others, have also spent over half of all clean energy related government spending on affordability measures.
Low carbon and efficient transport accounts for the next largest share of government spending in Europe (around 21%), followed by energy efficient buildings (14%), according to the IEA's data.
ASIA: SEEKING BALANCE
Major Asian nations including China, Japan and India are also spending heavily on energy affordability measures, which have so far accounted for roughly 50% of the region's government spending in the clean energy and energy efficiency areas.
However, Asian governments are also deploying major funding on low carbon electricity (roughly 16% of total spending), low carbon transport (around 12%) and on electricity network upgrades and expansions (7%), in an effort to develop positive momentum among carbon reduction and green energy supply efforts.
Several nations across Africa, Latin America and the Middle East have split spending allocations in a similar way.
However, as with most European nations, the heavy price tag associated with energy affordability measures means there is less funding available to be deployed on other areas associated with accelerating the energy transition.
That means that the United States' higher levels of government spending on low carbon electricity generation and transportation compared to other major economies may enable the country to build up development leads in those areas, and in time give the U.S. a competitive advantage over other nations as those investments bear fruit.
The bind represented by former President Donald Trump’s indictment is that, based on the evidence we have now, he appears to be caught dead to rights. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo / Editing by Germán & CoOpinion | A Trump Pardon Could Drain Poison from the System
If Trump loses in 2024, sparing him jail time could ease our divided politics.
POLITICO USA, Opinion by RICH LOWRY, June 15, 2023 Rich Lowry is editor in chief of National Review and a contributing writer with Politico Magazine.
It’s an idea whose time is inevitably coming for Republican presidential candidates — pardoning former President Donald J. Trump.
With the former president facing 37 counts in a federal indictment alleging violations of the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice, his fellow Republicans began discussing clemency even before Trump had entered a plea in the case in Miami.
Vivek Ramaswamy has led the way, making a pledge to pardon Trump his calling card. He is swaddling his case in selfless principle, saying that it’d be easier for him if Trump were out of the race, yet his commitment to justice forces him to act against his own interest … and say something that many Republican voters obviously want to hear.
Nikki Haley is inclined toward a pardon, too.
The middle of a primary campaign is not the best place to carefully think through the various equities involved in the criminal case against Trump and potential clemency, but the idea of pardoning Trump is a sensible one that, depending on the exact circumstances, truly could serve the public interest.
The bind represented by Trump’s indictment is that, based on the evidence we have now, he appears to be caught dead to rights; at the same time, nothing good is going to come from the political and legal warfare inevitable with the prosecution by the U.S. government of the leader of the opposition party.
The presidential pardon power is sweeping. The Supreme Court called it “unlimited” in the 1886 case Ex parte Garland. It extends to “every offence known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment.”
Among other things, it allows for the consideration of factors that the law alone might not take into account.
The most famous example from high politics is, of course, Gerald Ford pardoning Richard Nixon for offenses related to Watergate, although that episode dates from a different era when politics was a more serious business for more serious people. Ford didn’t go around bragging that he’d pardon Nixon to garner attention and curry favor with Nixon supporters, while Nixon, for all his desperate flaws, was a man of considerable substance and achievement.
Ford, of course, justified his act of clemency on grounds of moving on from, as he put it in his national address, “a tragedy in which we all have played a part. It could go on and on and on, or someone must write the end to it. I have concluded that only I can do that, and if I can, I must.”
We are still far away from getting to anything like this place. First, Trump would have to lose the Republican nomination, and he’s currently the strong favorite. Then, some other Republican would have to win the presidency, or President Joe Biden would have to see the wisdom of potentially keeping the vanquished Trump out of jail, either after beating him again or defeating another Republican.
All this is very speculative, and who knows where the documents case will stand in a year or two? It looks formidable now, but Trump has yet to mount a legal defense.
That said, the case for a pardon is straightforward.
The conventional wisdom is that our politics is over-heated. The worry over this is often exaggerated (things have been as or more feverish before), but having a former president stand trial in a federal criminal case, and potentially spend the rest of his life in jail, is only going to make things more intense and the country more divided. A pardon itself would be a flash point, as the Ford pardon of Nixon was, but it would at least take the unprecedented possibility of a former president behind bars off the table.
There is some significant plurality of the country that simply isn’t going to accept the legitimacy of the charges. Maybe this shouldn’t matter — the law is the law. If the shoe were on the other foot, though, and if it were the Ron DeSantis Department of Justice prosecuting a Democrat with a significant chance of running against him, there’d be an outcry from the same people now dismissing any doubts about the Trump prosecution.
Those doubts are based on more than the typical partisan suspicions of the other side. The Trump prosecution comes against the backdrop of the years-long Russia investigation by the FBI and special counsel Robert Mueller that cast a pall over Trump’s campaign and early presidency and that was based on gossamer thin, politically motivated information.
It comes after Hillary Clinton got a prosecutorial pass over her “home brew” email set-up as secretary of State that was designed to evade government record-keeping rules and that transmitted and stored classified information and sensitive discussions, putting their security at risk.
It comes as the Hunter Biden investigation has dragged on since 2018, with an IRS whistleblower now alleging a cover-up.
It comes at the same time as the Department of Justice has failed to appoint a special counsel to probe whether the Biden family has used its influence to enrich itself.
What we should want to avoid is a pattern of legal retribution and counter-retribution. That would distort our legal process beyond anything that’s happened to this point, further subordinating it to politics and undermining public trust in it. Perhaps this prosecutorial tribal warfare has already been unleashed, but a Trump pardon has a chance of sapping some of the poison out of the system.
It’s also worth emphasizing that in any of these pardon scenarios, Trump has lost his latest bid for the presidency, either in the primary or the general election. This means he’d presumably be a much-reduced figure, whether he’d been rejected by Republican primary voters or lost a national election a second time (although I thought the same thing after the 2020 election). We aren’t talking about a pardon clearing the way for another White House bid, but rather as a consolation prize for someone who is vastly diminished and looking at potentially losing his freedom, too.
There are reasonable objections to all this. Pardoning Trump would mean entrenching a norm that high-flying political figures don’t have to play by the same rules around the handling of classified documents that everyone else does. Also, usually someone asks for a pardon, and expresses remorse for their wrongdoing. It’s impossible to imagine Trump doing that. Finally, we don’t know what 2024 will look like, and it may be that by the end of it, Trump looks more unsympathetic to a Republican president and more loathsome to Joe Biden.
At the end of the day, a Trump pardon would be about book-ending the Trump era, trying to get beyond a noxious chapter that both he and his often unscrupulous, overzealous pursuers contributed to. If Trump is a Nixon, it’d be best for the country if he found his Gerald Ford.
News round-up, June 15, 2023
This week's event:
…”Historic Moment in Australia’s Energy Transition as Hazelwood Battery Energy Storage System is Commissioned
The Hazelwood BESS is an impressive feat of engineering and collaboration. Jointly funded and developed by ENGIE and Eku Energy, this facility is Australia's largest privately funded utility-scale battery, boasting a massive 150 MW/150 MWh capacity. Moreover, this project represents a significant step forward in the country's energy transition, thanks in part to the —-State Of The Art—-technology supplied by Fluence.
GLOBE NEWSWIRE / Editing by Germán & Co, June 14, 2023The other side of the coin…
…”The Triton malware... Do you know what it is?
The issue has attracted significant attention from cybersecurity experts, especially in the energy sector. The malware under scrutiny has been labelled as the "world's most lethal" due to its ability to remotely deactivate safety mechanisms in industrial facilities, which could result in catastrophic consequences.
REUTERS, NOWMost Read…
‘As geopolitically important as oil’: Lithium mining could transform India – but is trouble looming?
As countries wean themselves off fossil fuels and decarbonise their economies, a global race to extract the precious metal is on the horizon
THE TELEGRAPH BY SAMAAN LATEEF IN NEW DELHI15 JUNE 2023 …”Historic Moment in Australia’s Energy Transition as Hazelwood Battery Energy Storage System is Commissioned
The Hazelwood BESS is an impressive feat of engineering and collaboration. Jointly funded and developed by ENGIE and Eku Energy, this facility is Australia's largest privately funded utility-scale battery, boasting a massive 150 MW/150 MWh capacity. Moreover, this project represents a significant step forward in the country's energy transition, thanks in part to the —-State Of The Art—-technology supplied by Fluence.
GLOBE NEWSWIRE / EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, JUNE 14, 2023 Energy bills to rise £200 a year ‘to pay for wasted wind power’
Poor electricity grid infrastructure means energy created by turbines in Scotland can’t reach homes in England on very windy days
THE TELEGRAPH BY EMMA GATTEN, ENVIRONMENT EDITOR15 JUNE 2023 The rise of North Korea’s most dangerous woman
Tipped to be the future leader, Kim Jong-un’s sister Yo-jong reportedly ordered the executions of officials for ‘getting on her nerves’
THE TELEGRAPH BY SUNG-YOON LEE, 8 JUNE 2023 Cyberattacks on renewables:
…“Europe power sector's dread in chaos of war…
REUTERS BY NORA BULI, NINA CHESTNEY AND CHRISTOPH STEITZ, JUNE 15, 2023, NOW Image: Fluence with their Gridstack product, this world-renowned energy solutions provider is helping to ensure that energy in Victoria remains secure and reliable for years to come. / Image credit: Fluence/ Yahoo / Editing by Germán & CoThis week's event:
…”Historic Moment in Australia’s Energy Transition as Hazelwood Battery Energy Storage System is Commissioned
The Hazelwood BESS is an impressive feat of engineering and collaboration. Jointly funded and developed by ENGIE and Eku Energy, this facility is Australia's largest privately funded utility-scale battery, boasting a massive 150 MW/150 MWh capacity. Moreover, this project represents a significant step forward in the country's energy transition, thanks in part to the —-State Of The Art—-technology supplied by Fluence.
GLOBE NEWSWIRE / Editing by Germán & Co, June 14, 2023The other side of the coin…
…”The Triton malware... Do you know what it is?
The issue has attracted significant attention from cybersecurity experts, especially in the energy sector. The malware under scrutiny has been labelled as the "world's most lethal" due to its ability to remotely deactivate safety mechanisms in industrial facilities, which could result in catastrophic consequences.
Reuters, nowMost Read…
‘As geopolitically important as oil’: Lithium mining could transform India – but is trouble looming?
As countries wean themselves off fossil fuels and decarbonise their economies, a global race to extract the precious metal is on the horizon
THE TELEGRAPH By Samaan Lateef IN NEW DELHI15 June 2023 …”Historic Moment in Australia’s Energy Transition as Hazelwood Battery Energy Storage System is Commissioned
The Hazelwood BESS is an impressive feat of engineering and collaboration. Jointly funded and developed by ENGIE and Eku Energy, this facility is Australia's largest privately funded utility-scale battery, boasting a massive 150 MW/150 MWh capacity. Moreover, this project represents a significant step forward in the country's energy transition, thanks in part to the —-State Of The Art—-technology supplied by Fluence.
GLOBE NEWSWIRE / Editing by Germán & Co, June 14, 2023Energy bills to rise £200 a year ‘to pay for wasted wind power’
Poor electricity grid infrastructure means energy created by turbines in Scotland can’t reach homes in England on very windy days
The Telegraph by Emma Gatten, ENVIRONMENT EDITOR15 June 2023The rise of North Korea’s most dangerous woman
Tipped to be the future leader, Kim Jong-un’s sister Yo-jong reportedly ordered the executions of officials for ‘getting on her nerves’
The Telegraph By Sung-Yoon Lee, 8 June 2023 Cyberattacks on renewables:
Europe power sector's dread in chaos of war…
Reuters by Nora Buli, Nina Chestney and Christoph Steitz, June 15, 2023, nowThe AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image credit: Lithium is found all over the world in both brine and hard rock deposits CREDIT: Surya Nair/iStockphoto / Editing by Germán & Co‘As geopolitically important as oil’: Lithium mining could transform India – but is trouble looming?
As countries wean themselves off fossil fuels and decarbonise their economies, a global race to extract the precious metal is on the horizon
THE TELEGRAPH By Samaan Lateef IN NEW DELHI15 June 2023 In early February, the Indian government made a discovery deep beneath the foothills of the Himalayas which holds the potential to transform the nation.
It was not a discovery of gold, diamonds or oil – but a highly reactive precious metal that is, quite literally, electrifying the world: lithium.
As countries look to wean themselves off fossil fuels and decarbonise their economies, a global race has emerged to mine the metal, which is a vital component for batteries – the sort used in electric vehicles and mobile – and extremely effective at storing energy.
This race is currently being won by the likes of Australia and Chile, but India’s new-found supply of lithium, which amounts to 5.9 million metric tons, the sixth largest reserve in the world, is likely to make the nation a serious contender.
The government will be eager to exploit its bounty as soon as possible – not only because it offers the opportunity to create jobs and attract investment, helping turbocharge the economy, but because lithium can pave the way to a greener India.
“It is geopolitically important as oil now,” says Chris Berry, a Washington-based analyst on energy metals supply chains.
India is currently the world’s third biggest emitter of carbon dioxide behind China and the US, and could well overtake these nations as its population and economy continues to grow.
To avoid inheriting the unwanted title of the world’s leading polluter, the Indian government has declared its intentions to seek self-reliance in energy. “From solar energy to Mission Hydrogen to adoption to EVs [electric vehicles], we need to take these initiatives to the next level for energy independence,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said last year.
Already, many of the country’s public institutions are running – or partially running – on solar energy. And in India’s most developed cities, more and more people are embracing electric vehicles, while public transport is transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The discovery of high-grade lithium in the north Indian village of Salal, up in the mountains of Jammu and Kashmir, has therefore come as a shot in the arm for the nation’s green dreams.
If harnessed properly, this reserve could reduce India’s greenhouse gas emissions by facilitating the electrification of the transport sector, which currently accounts for eight per cent of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The number of electric vehicles being sold in the country is already on the rise. In the 2020-21 fiscal year, just under 50,000 EVs were sold. This number rose significantly to 237,811 the following year, and 442,901 until December 2022.
More and more Indians are embracing electric vehicles CREDIT: ANUSHREE FADNAVIS/REUTERS
To promote the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles in the country, India has implemented a scheme known as ‘Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles’ (FAME), which, if all goes to plan, will help turn the nation into the number one global exporter of EVs.
Under the programme, electric vehicles will make up 30 per cent of all private cars, 70 per cent of commercial vehicles, 40 per cent of buses and 80 per cent of two- and three-wheeler sales by 2030.
By providing a competitive advantage in the manufacturing of batteries and EVs, India’s lithium could turn the bold aspirations of FAME into reality.
The domestic availability of lithium could also facilitate the scaling up of energy storage systems to enable more efficient and reliable integration of renewable power into India’s energy grid.
“If managed efficiently and sustainably, the domestic availability of lithium can play a significant role in India’s pursuit of energy self-reliance and the transition towards a greener and more sustainable future,” says Pankaj Srivastava, Professor of geology at the University of Jammu.
He added that the lithium reserve could reduce India’s dependence on imports – last year, India spent £1.6 billion on buying lithium from abroad – and “boost its economy”.
Land slips, earthquakes and water scarcity
The government plans to auction off the lithium reserve in December. Both Indian private companies and foreign entities with a local subsidiary will be able to stake a claim, an official from India’s Ministry of Mines said.
But there are likely to be many challenges ahead. Experts believe India may need technology transfers and tie-ups with the global firms engaged in lithium metal extraction to facilitate the mining of the deposit.
“Lithium is found all over the world in both brine and hard rock deposits. The challenge is building the mine and producing large amounts of what we call battery grade or high purity lithium because of the geological and geochemical complexity of the lithium deposit,” says Mr Berry.
“Whoever decides to build a mine here would need significant capital as well as deep technical and engineering talent. This is not to say the mine can’t or shouldn’t be built but to say that it could take years.”
There is also the issue of local opposition. Salal village is part of the Reasi district – a hilly region prone to earthquakes and land sliding.
Many locals told the Telegraph they do not want the reserve to be mined, fearing it will trigger earthquakes and habitat disruption and lead to drinking water scarcity in the area, given the huge amounts of water needed to extract lithium.
“We are facing an acute shortage of drinking water and if lithium mining starts here, there won’t be enough water left for us,” says Nitin Mukesh, 37, a Salal resident.
Many of the wells have already dried up from other mining projects in the area, Mukesh adds.
Authorities will have to displace around 350 families of Salal village to build the mine. This has fuelled protests, with locals demanding jobs and compensation three times the cost of their properties.
In August 2022, Nature Conservancy claimed that the proven technologies of lithium extraction through surface mining or brine evaporation require hundreds of acres of land for extraction and can lead to the complete removal of native vegetation from an affected area.
With this in mind, the people of Salal are fearful of what will happen to the natural resources and beauty of their home land.
Vaibhav Rukwal, a 25-year-old local lawyer, is surprised that the surveyors who reviewed the area ignored the presence of a significant river beneath the foothills where the lithium reserves have been found.
“We fear the lithium mountain will sink due to the mining. And if the mountain sinks by just two inches, it could alter the course of the Chenab river, resulting in devastating flooding of the Raesi town,” says Rukwal.
Many families are protesting against the displacement as they say it would be difficult for them to leave behind ancestral properties without any significant benefit in return, he said.
“What purpose does this lithium serve when our people are forcibly uprooted?” asks Rukwal.
Even as officials claim the lithium mining would be economically viable because of its quality and quantity amid growing demand for the mineral, critics say it is a long road ahead.
“Getting Lithium out of the ground in an economic way is difficult. There is a big difference between resources in the ground, economic reserves, and then building a mine that can make lithium chemicals for the EVs. That timeline is decades long,” says Simon Moores, a London-based businessman specializing in the lithium ion battery and electric vehicle industry.
India needs to first drill the lithium deposits to understand the geology and how to commercialise it, he adds. “A wealth of lithium in the ground is great for politics but useless for the industry.”
Prof Srivastava argues that the discovery of lithium “is in its preliminary stage”. He adds: “It will be interesting to see how this evolves and contributes to India’s renewable energy goals.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Fluence with their Gridstack product, this world-renowned energy solutions provider is helping to ensure that energy in Victoria remains secure and reliable for years to come. / Image credit: Fluence/ Yahoo / Editing by Germán & Co…”Historic Moment in Australia’s Energy Transition as Hazelwood Battery Energy Storage System is Commissioned
The Hazelwood BESS is an impressive feat of engineering and collaboration. Jointly funded and developed by ENGIE and Eku Energy, this facility is Australia's largest privately funded utility-scale battery, boasting a massive 150 MW/150 MWh capacity. Moreover, this project represents a significant step forward in the country's energy transition, thanks in part to the —-State Of The Art—-technology supplied by Fluence.
GLOBE NEWSWIRE / Editing by Germán & Co, June 14, 2023MELBOURNE, Australia, June 13, 2023 ( -- ENGIE and project partners Eku Energy and Fluence have delivered another milestone at the site of the former Hazelwood Power Station in the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, with the commissioning of the Hazelwood Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) today. Marking a new era in Australia’s energy transition, Hazelwood is the first retired coal-fired power station to host a battery storage system in Australia and represents a key moment in repurposing former thermal assets for renewable energy technologies.
The Hazelwood BESS was officially opened on 14 June 2023 by The Hon. Lily D’Ambrosio MP, Victorian Minister for Energy & Resources, together with Rik De Buyserie, CEO, ENGIE Australia & New Zealand, Daniel Burrows, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Asia Pacific, Eku Energy, and Achal Sondhi, Vice President for Market Growth, APAC & General Manager for Australia, Fluence.
Jointly funded and developed by ENGIE and Eku Energy, the 150 MW/150 MWh Hazelwood BESS is Australia’s largest privately funded utility-scale battery. Fluence supplies, operates, and maintains the facility for the partnership and it is the first project in Australia to use Fluence’s Gridstack product to provide secure and reliable energy in Victoria and support the energy transition.
The Hon. Lily D’Ambrosio MP, Minister for Energy & Resources, Government of Victoria said:
… “Victoria is leading the nation in delivering battery and energy storage projects, with our ambitious energy storage targets ensuring that Victoria continues to attract industry investment and collaboration opportunities like this. The Latrobe Valley has been the home of Victoria’s energy generation for decades and new investment in technologies like energy storage will help solidify its role in our renewable energy future.”
Rik De Buyserie, CEO, ENGIE ANZ said:
…“ENGIE’s delivery of the Hazelwood battery is part of our commitment to building long-term, reliable assets that play a key role in the future of Australia’s energy transition. With its access to transmission and available space at site, Hazelwood is the perfect location for an asset that can grow in depth and duration, increasing the hosting capacity for renewables.”
Daniel Burrows, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Asia Pacific, Eku Energy said:
… “The Hazelwood battery is an example of how strong partnerships can support the deployment of battery storage systems at strategic grid locations as Australia’s existing generation fleet transitions towards higher penetrations of renewable energy resources. Storage solutions remain key to the pace at which we can transition to renewable energy and today’s event marks another proud milestone in Eku Energy’s global energy storage portfolio, as we celebrate the commissioning of 150 MW of safe, secure and reliable battery capacity to accelerate the energy transition.”
Achal Sondhi, Vice President for Market Growth, APAC & General Manager for Australia at Fluence said:
…. “As the first project in Australia to deploy Fluence Gridstack, an energy storage product which is designed for the most demanding market applications, the Hazelwood battery is a major milestone for us. By partnering with ENGIE and Eku Energy, we are bringing Fluence’s proven advanced technology combined with over 15 years of global energy storage experience to deliver industry-leading reliability, scalability, and safety to Australia. Fluence Mosaic™ bidding software allows the Hazelwood battery to react quickly and efficiently to grid needs and maximise the revenue while allowing integration of more clean energy. Our rapidly growing Fluence team in Australia is committed to the country’s energy transition.”
The Hazelwood battery has the capacity to store the equivalent of an hour of energy generated from the rooftop solar systems of 30,000 homes. It will play a critical role in increasing renewable energy capacity in Victoria while delivering essential system services to the grid. The Hazelwood Power Station was built in the 1960s and closed in 2017 after 50 years of service, in line with ENGIE’s global strategy to be Net Zero carbon by 2045.
The findings of this significant project indicate that adopting the —State Of The Art— technologies, such as the battery energy storage system (BESS) provided by Fluence, is imperative for achieving a swift and effective shift towards renewable energy sources.
Image credit by Germán & CoEnergy bills to rise £200 a year ‘to pay for wasted wind power’
Poor electricity grid infrastructure means energy created by turbines in Scotland can’t reach homes in England on very windy days
The Telegraph by Emma Gatten, ENVIRONMENT EDITOR15 June 2023Energy bills will rise £200 a year within a decade to pay for wasted wind power as new turbines in Scotland are paid to switch off, according to new forecasts.
Poor electricity grid infrastructure means energy created by turbines in Scotland cannot reach homes in England on very windy days.
Last year Britain wasted enough wind power for a million homes, but new turbines built over the next decade would see that figure grow fivefold by 2030, according to think tank Carbon Tracker.
The cost to pay wind farms to switch off at these times and buy gas to fill in the shortfall would rise to £3.5 billion a year, according to Carbon Tracker’s analysis. That would add an average of £200 to annual household energy bills.
Bottlenecks in the planning process
The problem has been blamed on bottlenecks in the planning process which can take up to seven years for major new electricity cable projects.
Meanwhile, the construction of wind farms has grown steadily to help meet the Government’s net zero goals.
As a result, wind generation in Scotland is expected to grow four times faster by 2030 than the cables required to send the power across the border.
Scotland can currently produce 10GW of electricity from its wind farms on peak days, but the grid has the capacity to transport just 6GW.
With Scotland accounting for just 10 per cent of the country’s electricity demand, an excess of power would be created on days with high wind and low demand if turbine owners were not paid to switch off.
National Grid paid Scottish wind farms to stop generating on more than 200 occasions last year while paying gas power stations in England to increase output to compensate.
“The electricity grid is not fit for purpose because investments are not increasing in step with the rapid growth of wind power,” said report author Lorenzo Sani.
‘Grid can’t support Government’s plans’
“Without significant improvement in the permitting timeframes for critical energy transmission infrastructure – the grid can’t support the Government’s plans to decarbonise generation by 2035 or deliver on its vision of ‘affordable, homegrown, clean energy’.”
The Government is looking at ways to speed up connections, including forcing slow-moving projects to the back of the queue.
Carbon Tracker said building new subsea cables would be the cheapest and most effective way to solve the problem.
The cost of two new undersea cables between England and Scotland would be around £3.7 billion, but could save £1.7 billion in annual wind curtailment costs, the report found.
“We’ve known for years that more renewables need to be built to meet our goals, but the network has not kept pace, creating bottlenecks and constraints in the system, and this is costing consumers hundreds of millions of pounds,” said Barnaby Wharton from industry body RenewableUK. “The solution to this problem is clear: building more grid is essential to getting low cost, low carbon power to consumers and reducing our reliance on gas imports.”
A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: “Since 2010, we’ve increased the amount of renewable energy connected to the grid by 500 per cent – the second highest amount in Europe.
“This has meant installing 3790MW of additional capacity across all renewables in 2022 alone - enough to power 3.8 million homes.
“We continue to support more renewable projects to come online, including onshore wind if there is local community backing, as clean, more affordable energy brings down costs for consumers and boosts our long-term energy security.”
Image: 'It is the First Sister of North Korea who wields real power,' writes Sung-Yoon Lee CREDIT: Nigel Buchananby / Editing by Germán & CoThe rise of North Korea’s most dangerous woman
Tipped to be the future leader, Kim Jong-un’s sister Yo-jong reportedly ordered the executions of officials for ‘getting on her nerves’
The Telegraph By Sung-Yoon Lee, 8 June 2023 Under a foggy February sky, a plane made its descent towards Incheon International Airport in South Korea. Inside sat 23 passengers – five officials, three reporters and the rest bodyguards. But one mattered above all.
At 1.46pm, Korea Standard Time, on 9 February 2018, the Soviet-era Ilyushin-62 touched down. It was the first time a direct descendant of North Korea’s dynastic founder Kim Il-sung had set foot on South Korean soil since Kim Il-sung himself in July 1950, one month after invading the South.
Cameras clamoured to catch a glimpse of the guests. First to emerge from the airport was Kim Yong-nam, the then-90-year-old nominal head of the North Korean mission, who got into the first of two black sedans. Then, shadowed by a tall, male North Korean bodyguard and a female South Korean bodyguard, came a slightly built woman, around 30 years old. As she made her way to the second car, her gaze was still and her posture erect, as though she was entirely at ease with being at the centre of such a historic moment.
This was Kim Yo-jong, the sister of leader Kim Jong-un. As the youngest of the late leader Kim Jong-il’s seven children, she was doted on from childhood, known as ‘sweet princess Yo-jong’ to her parents. But unlike her other brother Kim Jong-chol, a royal sibling without real power, Kim Yo-jong was also ambitious.
From at least 2014 she had been ‘censor in chief’, running the nation’s Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD), whose mission is to indoctrinate North Koreans with state ideology. Her role in government has dramatically increased since 2018, and she has played an integral part in statecraft, expanding her dynasty’s power by drawing on lessons learned from her father – along the way earning the nicknames of ‘bloodthirsty demon’ and ‘devil woman’ from certain North Korean officials.
And yet until that South Korea trip, few outside her country had even heard of her.
For two days, as the mysterious princess from Pyongyang attended lunches, receptions and the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, she had South Koreans enthralled, despite doing very little besides walking, sitting, shaking hands, ignoring US vice president Mike Pence in the Olympic stands, infrequently smiling and frequently looking down her nose at South Koreans – including President Moon Jae-in.
Kim Yo-jong alongside North Korea's nominal head of state Kim Yong Nam and behind Mike Pence as she watches the opening ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea CREDIT: AP
She didn’t give a single public statement or interview. The only moment that betrayed what she really thought of anything came during the opening ceremony. When the US athletes made their entrance, she stayed in her seat while others applauded, her nose in the air, scowling slightly. (By then US-North Korea relations were at a particularly low ebb, with much name-calling between Kim Jong-un and then-President Trump, that ‘mentally deranged US dotard’.)
Kim Yo-jong eschewed small talk at photo ops too, and sat silently, her face expressionless, while others made polite chit-chat about the weather. Yet throughout that 56-hour trip, she was the talk of the nation and beyond.
Press commentary was over the top, unpicking every detail from her plain black outfits and the flower-shaped clip that kept her hair back in a ‘no-nonsense style’, through to the fact that she was seen wearing thick make-up, even though she usually wore little of it at all. What could this mean? One expert concluded that her eyeshadow must be positive news – a sign that she took her mission seriously.
‘She is not only pretty but also polite!’ gushed another commentator after a wrangle over seating in the airport VIP room. In their excitement, they failed to see what was really at play: the South Korean hosts had indicated to Kim Yong-nam to take the centre seat but he motioned to the princess to take it instead. With a smile, she pointed for him to sit. ‘How gracious she is!’ remarked South Korean pundits, not noticing that Kim Yo-jong’s outstretched fingers were less a gesture of respect than the boss telling her underling to sit down.
Kim Yo-jong arrives to attend the opening ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea CREDIT: AFP
Had she wanted to show true deference, Kim Yo-jong would have motioned with both hands cupped. But imperviousness and self-confidence bred from an early age do not lend themselves to modesty; and here she was calmly exuding arrogance.
The most important event of her trip was a visit with President Moon at the Blue House, then the presidential office and mansion, followed by a luncheon. It would be here that she delivered a personal letter from her brother, paving the way for a series of historic meetings between the North and South Korean leaders.
That this letter was delivered by Kim Yo-jong, not Kim Yong-nam – a government veteran of six decades, who had for the past 20 years been President of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, the rubber-stamp parliament – spoke volumes. It was a snapshot of a peculiarity in North Korean political culture, in which official ranks often belie the true hierarchy, and the lives of cabinet members and four-star generals can hang on the whims of a real power-holder of a much lower rank. Indeed Kim Yo-jong could, if she wished, order the execution of any one of the 250-strong Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, except Kim Jong-un.
It is the First Sister of North Korea who wields real power.
When Kim Il-sung died in 1994 and Kim Jong-il became the Supreme Leader, the outside world – even foreign intelligence agencies – knew little about the new man, nor his seven children, born to four different women. Of his three youngest children – Jong-chol, Jong-un and Yo-jong, all born to his most favoured consort, dancer Ko Yong-hui – they knew nothing at all.
Image source: Media / Editing by Germán & CoCyberattacks on renewables: Europe power sector's dread in chaos of war
Reuters by Nora Buli, Nina Chestney and Christoph Steitz, June 15, 2023, nowOSLO/LONDON/FRANKFURT, June 15 (Reuters) - Saboteurs target a nation leading the world in clean energy. They hack into vulnerable wind and solar power systems. They knock out digitalized energy grids. They wreak havoc.
It's the stuff of nightmares for European power chiefs.
Henriette Borgund knows attackers can find weaknesses in the defences of a big renewables power company - she's found them herself. She joined Norway's Hydro (NHY.OL) as an "ethical hacker" last April, bringing years of experience in military cyberdefence to bear at a time of war in Europe and chaos in energy markets.
"I am not sure I want to comment on how often we find holes in our system. But what I can say is that we have found holes in our system," she told Reuters at Hydro's Oslo HQ, declining to detail the nature of the vulnerabilities for security reasons.
Hydro is among several large power producers shoring up their cyberdefences due in significant part to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which they say has ramped up the threat of hacker attacks on their operations, according to Reuters interviews with a dozen executives from seven of Europe's biggest players.
"We established last year, after the start of the Ukraine war, that the risk of cyber sabotage has increased," said Michael Ebner, information security chief at German utility EnBW (EBKG.DE), which is expanding its 200-strong cyber security team to protect operations ranging from wind and solar to grids.
The executives all said the sophistication of Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine had provided a wake-up call to how vulnerable digitalized and interconnected power systems could be to attackers. They're nervously monitoring a hybrid war where physical energy infrastructure has already been targeted, from the Nord Stream gas pipelines to the Kakhovka dam.
"The cyber campaigns that Russia has been running against Ukraine have been very targeted at Ukraine. But we have been able to observe and learn from it," said Torstein Gimnes Are, cybersecurity chief at Hydro, an aluminium producer as well as Norway's fourth-largest power generator.
Gimnes Are said he feared a nation state could work with hacker groups to infect a network with malicious software - though like the other executives declined to divulge details on specific attacks or threats, citing corporate confidentiality.
Ukraine's SBU security service told Reuters that Russia launched more than 10 cyberattacks a day, on average, with the Ukrainian energy sector a priority target. It said Russia had tried to destroy digital networks and cause power cuts, and that missile attacks on facilities were often accompanied by cyberattacks.
Russian officials have said that the West repeatedly blames Moscow for cyberattacks without providing evidence and that the United States as well as its allies carry out offensive cyber operations against it. The Russian foreign ministry didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on the views of the power companies or the Ukrainian SBU's assertions.
The European power companies, as well as half a dozen independent tech security experts, stressed that the digitalized and interconnected technology of the thousands of renewable assets and energy grids springing up across Europe presented major - and growing - vulnerabilities to infiltration.
"The new energy world is decentralized. This means that we have many small units - such as wind and solar plants but also smart meters - which are connected in a digital way," said Swantje Westpfahl, director at Germany's Institute for Security and Safety.
"This networking increases the risks because there are significantly more possible entry points for attacks, with much greater potential impact."
TRITON VIRUS SHUTS PLANT
The possible effects of a cyberattack range from capture of sensitive data and power outages to the destruction of a physical asset, said James Forrest, executive vice president at Capgemini, which advises companies on security risks.
He cited, in particular, the risk of malware such as the Triton virus, which hackers used to remotely take over the safety systems of a Saudi petrochemical plant in 2017 and shut it down.
While malware packages like Triton might be exotic algorithmic weapons, the most common mode of entry used by hackers looking to deliver them is more familiar, according to the executives and experts interviewed: via phishing emails designed to elicit data from employees like network passwords.
Such attacks are "more or less constant", according to Cem Gocgoren, information security chief at Svenska Kraftnaet. The Swedish grid operator has roughly quadrupled its cybersecurity team to about 60 over about the last four years and is raising awareness among staff. "We have to make them understand that we are under attack all the time. It's the new normal."
Hydro's ethical hacker Borgund echoed this sense of a relentless barrage via phishing, which she described as the "first initial vector" of cyberattackers.
CYBERATTACK ON SATELLITE
Traditional power plants like gas and nuclear typically operate on airgapped IT infrastructure that's sealed off from the outside, making them less susceptible to cyberattacks than physical sabotage, said Stephan Gerling, senior researcher at Kasperky's ICS CERT, which studies and detects cyber threats on industrial facilities.
By contrast, the ever-growing number of smaller renewable installations around Europe run on diverse third-party systems that are digitally hooked up to the power grid, and are below the power-generation monitoring threshold set by safety authorities, he added.
This kind of interconnectedness was demonstrated last February when a Russian cyberattack on a Ukrainian satellite communications network knocked out the remote monitoring of more than 5,800 wind turbines of Germany's Enercon and shut them down, said Mathias Boeswetter, head of IT security at German energy industry group BDEW.
While the incident did not affect the electricity grid, it showed the escalating cyber vulnerabilities posed by the energy transition, he added.
KEY TO HACKING A WIND FARM
Hacking into a wind farm can be relatively easy.
Researchers at the University of Tulsa conducted an experiment by hacking into unnamed wind farms in the United States in 2017 to test their vulnerabilities, with the permission of the wind farm operators, according to a report on cyber threats to energy by risk consultancy DNV.
The researchers picked a lock to gain access to a chamber in the base of a wind turbine, the report said. They accessed the turbine's server and got a list of IP addresses representing every networked turbine in the field. They then stopped the turbine from turning.
Driven by government efforts to wean nations off fossil fuels and double down on renewables, wind and solar power accounted for more than a fifth of European energy demand in 2021, according to EU data, a share expected to double by 2030.
E.ON (EONGn.DE) - Europe's largest operator of energy grids with a network sprawling 1 million miles - has also observed a rising risk of cyberattacks, its CEO Leonhard Birnbaum said at the group's shareholder meeting in May.
The company has expanded its dedicated cyber staff to around 200 over the years, it said in emailed comments, adding the group had long recognized the issue's relevance.
"Putting cybersecurity at the top of the priority list only after the start of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis would have been a serious omission," it said.
The European power sector as whole may be unprepared for the scale of the security challenge - that's the view of many workers in the sector who say a lack of in-house cybersecurity skills was the biggest obstacle to effectively guarding against attack, according to a separate DNV survey of around 600 energy professionals carried out in February and March.
"Companies in the energy space, their core business is producing energy, not cybersecurity," said Jalal Bouhdada, CEO of cybersecurity firm Applied Risk, a division of DNV.
"This means that they must work diligently to secure every aspect of their infrastructure because malicious actors only need to find one gap to exploit."
News round-up, June 14, 2023
Most Read…
Chile intends to become the world's leading lithium producer
With 36% of the world's lithium reserves located in Chile, President Gabriel Boric is leading an extraction strategy, including plans for a government-owned company.
Le Monde by Flora Genoux(Buenos Aires (Argentina), Published today at 3:00 pm (Paris)
Is Donald Trump Scared?
At the former President’s indictment in Miami on Tuesday, it was impossible to say whether his fate was more likely to be a return to the White House—or prison.
The New Yorker by Eric Lach, June 13, 2023Peak in global oil demand ‘in sight before end of decade’
International Energy Agency says demand will grow by 2.4m barrels a day in 2023 to record 102.3m
The Guardian by Alex Lawson and agencies, Wed 14 Jun 2023Stock Market to Fed: You Haven’t Done Enough
Bullish stocks, low bond yields and recovering housing market suggest interest rates aren’t that restrictive
WSJ by Greg Ip, June 14, 2023Shell’s New Strategy Avoids the Toughest Questions
The European energy major promises stable oil and gas production this decade, but higher hurdles for investments in lower-carbon alternatives
WSJ by Carol Ryan, June 14, 2023 Image: The brine basins and processing areas of a lithium mine owned by the Chilean company SQM (Sociedad Quimica Minera), in the Atacama Desert, Calama, Chile, September 12, 2022. MARTIN BERNETTI / AFP / Editing by Germán & CoMost Read…
Chile intends to become the world's leading lithium producer
With 36% of the world's lithium reserves located in Chile, President Gabriel Boric is leading an extraction strategy, including plans for a government-owned company.
Le Monde by Flora Genoux(Buenos Aires (Argentina), Published today at 3:00 pm (Paris)Is Donald Trump Scared?
At the former President’s indictment in Miami on Tuesday, it was impossible to say whether his fate was more likely to be a return to the White House—or prison.
The New Yorker by Eric Lach, June 13, 2023Peak in global oil demand ‘in sight before end of decade’
International Energy Agency says demand will grow by 2.4m barrels a day in 2023 to record 102.3m
The Guardian by Alex Lawson and agencies, Wed 14 Jun 2023Stock Market to Fed: You Haven’t Done Enough
Bullish stocks, low bond yields and recovering housing market suggest interest rates aren’t that restrictive
WSJ by Greg Ip, June 14, 2023Shell’s New Strategy Avoids the Toughest Questions
The European energy major promises stable oil and gas production this decade, but higher hurdles for investments in lower-carbon alternatives
WSJ By Carol Ryan, June 14, 2023 The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image credit:The brine basins and processing areas of a lithium mine owned by the Chilean company SQM (Sociedad Quimica Minera), in the Atacama Desert, Calama, Chile, September 12, 2022. MARTIN BERNETTI / AFP / Editing by Germán & CoChile intends to become the world's leading lithium producer
With 36% of the world's lithium reserves located in Chile, President Gabriel Boric is leading an extraction strategy, including plans for a government-owned company.
Le Monde by Flora Genoux(Buenos Aires (Argentina), Published today at 3:00 pm (Paris)The brine basins and processing areas of a lithium mine owned by the Chilean company SQM (Sociedad Quimica Minera), in the Atacama Desert, Calama, Chile, September 12, 2022. MARTIN BERNETTI / AFP
The announcement had been a long time coming. In a televised speech on Thursday, April 20, Chilean President Gabriel Boric outlined his "national lithium strategy," fulfilling a promise made during his campaign. The plan is part of an initiative to redistribute profits from the mining sector, one of the pillars of the Chilean economy. "No more mining for the few," vowed Boric, who assumed office in March 2022.
The lithium strategy "means more wealth so that Chile can finance new schools, hospitals, police stations, in short, a more dignified life for everyone," Boric continued. The project's cornerstone involves the creation of a "national lithium company" – the precise outline of which has yet to be determined – that will "participate in the entire production cycle of the mineral," according to the president. The idea is not to nationalize existing private companies but to set up a public-private partnership with mining stakeholders.
However, in order for the new structure to come to fruition, it remains subject to approval by Congress (where the government does not have a majority), via a bill due to be presented at the end of 2023. In the meantime, the government-owned copper company Codelco has already taken charge of launching the national participation in lithium extraction, by forging partnerships with private companies.
Taxation and energy sovereignty
Codelco, along with Enami (the national mining company), will be awarded exploration and exploitation contracts. Currently, two private companies – the US company Albemarle and the Chilean company SQM – are operating in the lithium salt flats of Atacama (1,500 km north of Santiago), where the metal is already being extracted in Chile. Their concessions expire in 2043 and 2030 respectively.
With the new policy, Boric intends to follow in the footsteps of Salvador Allende, the former socialist Chilean president (1970-1973) who nationalized the copper mines in 1971, calling the natural resource "Chile's wage." According to the authorities, Chile holds 36% of the world's lithium reserves, right in the heart of the "golden triangle" created by Argentina and Bolivia (together accounting for two-thirds of reserves, according to the French National Centre for Scientific Research).
As such, the country dreams of becoming the world's leading producer. Currently, Chile accounts for 34% of global production, outpaced by Australia. By 2022, lithium production will account for 3% of Chile's gross domestic product (GDP).
More coveted than ever, lithium is at a critical juncture. It's an essential metal for the batteries used in portable devices and in the manufacture of electric vehicles, which are increasingly encouraged by climate change adaptation policies. Demand for lithium is set to multiply by five to seven times between now and 2035, according to projections released on Tuesday, May 30, by the Chilean Copper Commission.
Consequently, the price of lithium has exploded. Between December 2020 and 2022, the price of lithium carbonate rose by 680% according to the Chilean government, making its tax and exploitation a major issue for tax revenues and sovereignty over natural resources.
The creation of a national lithium company "is a policy that seems quite legitimate," said Quentin Deforge, a political scientist, and researcher specializing in strategic minerals at the Free University of Brussels. "The energy transition is reshuffling the cards and allowing southern countries to gain a more favorable balance of power," he added. "If the Chilean strategy works, it could become a model."
New extraction methods
Although shares in SQM and Albemarle plummeted in the wake of the president's announcement, they recovered their value soon after. Above all, the companies have expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue. On Monday, June 5, French mining group Eramet announced the opening of an office in Santiago, "to support [its] future technical and commercial operations in Chile." According to Deforge, it's proof that "companies need lithium at any price and are absolutely willing to accept the new conditions" in Chile.
However, the specifics of the national lithium company have yet to be defined. "There's currently room for negotiation in Congress," said Emilio Castillo, an economist at the University of Chile. "Will the public company distribute contracts? Will it define the progressivity of taxes? The government presents it as a management company, but we can assume that the opposition will try to limit its action." In the meantime, a participatory phase focused on communities living in areas near mining operations is due to begin at the end of June.
In addition, the announced strategy includes "the use of new lithium extraction technologies that minimize the impact on brine basin ecosystems," along with research into these specific landscapes to learn more about how they function. Data gathering on the fragile brine basins "will take time and go beyond the current presidential term [until 2026]," warned Telye Yurisch, a researcher with the environmental protection foundation Terram.
The most critical issue is the high water demand involved in lithium extraction, due to the requirements of the evaporation process and the extensive use of fresh water in dilution, especially since these operations occur in a desert area in a water-stressed country. Yurisch added that "today, there is no commercial production anywhere in the world that uses the direct extraction method," which consumes less water.
Less than a month after the announcement of the lithium strategy, on Wednesday, May 17, Congress passed a tax amendment adding an increase for large copper mining operations, of which Chile is the world's leading producer. The government aims to finance its social policies by reviving the bill first proposed in 2018. The new tax system will start operating in 2024.
The government plans to reap $1.3 billion (€1.16 billion, or 0.45% of GDP) in tax revenue, a third of which will be redistributed to the regions. The law's approval is a major victory for the government, which nevertheless plans to pursue its tax reform project – originally intended to finance half its policies – which was rejected in March.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image: by Germán & CoIs Donald Trump Scared?
At the former President’s indictment in Miami on Tuesday, it was impossible to say whether his fate was more likely to be a return to the White House—or prison.
The New Yorker by Eric Lach, June 13, 2023For long stretches during former President Donald Trump’s arraignment in Miami on Tuesday afternoon, the only sounds in the courtroom were the creaks of the wooden benches in the spectators’ gallery and the hum of the air-conditioning system. Trump, wearing a dark suit, sat between his two lawyers, Todd Blanche and Chris Kise. From time to time, he leaned to his right to whisper to Blanche. Blanche would cover his mouth as he replied, pressing his face into Trump’s shoulder, practically snuggling.
Every American should be afforded the opportunity to observe Trump sitting silently for an hour. As it was, a half-dozen members of the public and a few dozen representatives of the press had their names drawn out of a hat by the clerk of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida. In April, at Trump’s arraignment in Manhattan on thirty-four counts of falsifying business records, the former President said fewer than a dozen words. On Tuesday, facing federal charges—including willful retention of national-security defense information and conspiracy to obstruct justice—Trump said absolutely nothing. His lawyers did the talking for him. “Your honor, we most certainly enter a plea of not guilty,” Blanche said, a few minutes into the proceeding.
There had been speculation before the hearing that Trump wouldn’t be formally arraigned on Tuesday. Two of the lawyers who had been handling the case left his legal team last week, after the indictment against him was unsealed. Since the case will be tried in Florida, Trump needed a lawyer admitted to the bar in the state. But who would take such a case, with such a client, and at the last minute? Representing Trump right now means accepting a nonzero chance of ending up in legal trouble oneself. Federal prosecutors, led by the special counsel Jack Smith, built their indictment against Trump in part using notes kept by one of Trump’s own lawyers, M. Evan Corcoran, who will now likely be called as a witness in the case. But there was Kise, a veteran Florida lawyer with deep ties to the state Republican Party, sitting to Trump’s left. There always seems to be someone in a red hat or blue suit ready to step in for Trump, no matter the fate of the last guy.
Arraignments are usually considered perfunctory affairs, particularly in cases against wealthy defendants who can afford bond and stay out of pretrial detention. But nothing about the criminal prosecution of a former President is perfunctory. As was the case in April in Manhattan, Trump’s arraignment on Tuesday involved extensive discussion of Trump’s extraordinary circumstances. Prosecutors allege that Trump kept classified national-security documents in sloppily stored banker’s boxes at Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, and at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, and that he engaged in a series of deceptions and scheming maneuvers when asked to return them. While discussing whether the judge presiding over the arraignment, Jonathan Goodman, would prohibit Trump from contacting witnesses in the case, Blanche argued that such a rule would be impossible for Trump to abide by, since the case involved so many elements of Trump’s life: his staff, his security detail, his clubs.
Trump’s co-defendant in the case is Waltine Nauta, a former White House military valet who has continued to work for Trump since the former President left office. The government says that Nauta was the other member of Trump’s conspiracy to keep the classified documents. Nauta was sitting at the defense table to Blanche’s right, his shiny bald head a contrast with Trump’s shiny blond head. Goodman said it was his understanding that Nauta was with Trump “on a daily or nearly daily basis.” Nauta’s presence meant that Trump had some familiar company in the courtroom. As was the case in Manhattan, no member of Trump’s family attended the hearing in Miami. There has been much talk about what kind of venue Florida will be for a Trump trial, and whether a jury here will be friendlier to the former President than one in New York. Calls had gone out for Trump supporters to protest the proceeding on Tuesday. But, for much of the morning, Trump fans were rivalled in number by the feral chickens that live on the grass outside the Wilkie D. Ferguson, Jr., Courthouse.
Eventually, the judge, the prosecutors, and Trump’s lawyers hashed out a plan wherein Trump agreed not to discuss the facts of the case directly with anyone whom prosecutors put on a list of potential witnesses. Otherwise, the prosecutors seemed to go out of their way to demonstrate that they did not want the case to restrict Trump in any way. He was not asked to surrender his passport. He was not asked to check in with pretrial services. He did not have to put up bail. Trump is running for President, after all. After about forty-five minutes, the hearing was over. Trump stood as the judge exited, and then he turned to look at the gallery for a moment before walking out through a side door. His head was set low on his shoulders. He was grimacing.
From the courthouse, Trump made what the Miami Herald called “strategic detour” to Versailles, a Cuban restaurant in Little Havana where his supporters had gathered. “Are you ready? Food for everyone!” he said, before a pastor and a rabbi who were on hand took a moment to pray for him. Then Trump headed for the airport, to fly to Bedminster, one of the scenes of the alleged crime, and the site of a fund-raiser he planned to attend in the evening. On Wednesday, Trump will be seventy-seven years old. He might end up President again, or he may face a terminal prison sentence. It remains impossible to say which is more likely.
Image credit: The International Energy Agency expects economic headwinds to reduce oil growth to 860,000 bpd next year. Photograph: Nick Oxford/Reuters/ Editing by Germán & CoPeak in global oil demand ‘in sight before end of decade’
International Energy Agency says demand will grow by 2.4m barrels a day in 2023 to record 102.3m
The Guardian by Alex Lawson and agencies, Wed 14 Jun 2023The worldwide peak in demand for oil is “in sight” and could come before the end of this decade, the global energy watchdog has said.
The International Energy Agency said the bounceback in oil demand that followed the easing of Covid restrictions was likely to end this year and growth would slow from next year.
A potential worsening in the global economy and the long-term transition to cleaner energy sources are expected to hurt demand.
The IEA’s executive director, Fatih Birol, said: “The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance.”
Global oil demand would grow by 2.4m barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to a record 102.3m, the IEA said in its monthly report on Wednesday.
However, the Paris-based agency expects economic headwinds to reduce growth to 860,000 bpd next year, and increasing use of electric vehicles to help to reduce that to 400,000 bpd in 2028 for overall demand of 105.7m.
“The slowdown has been hastened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine amid heightened energy security concerns and by governments’ post-Covid recovery spending plans, with more than $2tn mobilised for clean energy investments by 2030,” the IEA said.
Demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels, excluding biofuels, petrochemical feedstocks and other non-energy uses, was likely to peak at 81.6m bpd in 2028, it added.
“Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition,” Birol said.
Shell told investors it had ditched plans to cut oil production each year for the rest of the decade as it focused on fossil fuels under its new chief executive, Wael Sawan.
Energy prices soared last year after Russia, a large exporter of fossil fuels, invaded Ukraine and cut deliveries of natural gas to Europe.
Western powers imposed bans and price caps on Russian oil exports in efforts to drain a significant source of cash for Moscow’s war effort.
Oil and gas prices have fallen in recent months. However, British households’ energy bills remain about double what they were before the beginning of the energy crisis in 2021.
The energy price cap in Great Britain will fall to £2,074 for an average household from July, from the £2,500-a-year level set by the government’s energy price guarantee, which subsidises bills.
Last month a report by the IEA showed that clean energy investment was on track to reach $1.7tn (£1.4tn) this year as investors turned to renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage and other low-carbon technologies.
The agency said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the volatility the war injected into commodity markets, had encouraged greater investment in clean energy.
Joe Biden’s $369bn Inflation Reduction Act package of climate subsidies has also enticed investor capital into low-carbon projects in the US, and put pressure on the UK and elsewhere in Europe to respond with greater support for green energy on this side of the Atlantic.
Image by Germán & CoStock Market to Fed: You Haven’t Done Enough
Bullish stocks, low bond yields and recovering housing market suggest interest rates aren’t that restrictive
WSJ by Greg Ip, June 14, 2023Federal Reserve officials plan to take a break from raising interest rates Wednesday because they think monetary policy is already plenty tight.
To which the markets say: no, it ain’t.
The Fed’s mission has been to get interest rates high enough to slash inflation from its current 4% to 5% range to 2%, even if that means pushing the economy into recession and unemployment higher. If the Fed had succeeded, you probably wouldn’t be seeing these things: stocks entering a new bull market, a rebounding housing market or long-term Treasury yields well below the inflation rate.
In other words, the premise behind the Fed’s pause is suspect. Yes, interest rates are up a full 5 percentage points since early 2022, the steepest pace of increases since the 1980s. Despite that, monetary policy simply isn’t very tight, and that explains why the economy remains stronger and inflation is more stubborn than Fed officials expected—and why their job is still not done.
Likewise, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada had both raised rates rapidly, then paused to await an economic slowdown and lower inflation. Neither happened, and both resumed raising rates in recent weeks.
Monetary policy appears tight because the Fed has raised the nominal federal-funds rate so much—from near zero to a range between 5% and 5.25%. But it’s the real (inflation-adjusted), not nominal, interest rate that matters for the economy, and that has risen much less because inflation is higher than in previous cycles.
The level of real rates depends on the inflation rate used. Based on the 5.3% increase in consumer prices excluding food and energy in the past 12 months, the real rate is around zero. Using inflation-protected Treasury bond yields, Benson Durham, an analyst at Piper Sandler, estimates that the real rate is now about 1.4%. Unlike nominal rates, the real rate has risen less than in 1994 and 2004, though more than in 1999 and 2016, he calculates. “Not much to write home about,” he says.
The Fed considers a real rate of 0.5% neutral, meaning it neither stimulates nor slows economic activity. Anything above that is seen as restrictive enough to nudge unemployment higher and inflation lower. That said, a real rate of 1.4% isn’t that restrictive. The real rate was higher before every previous recession at least since 1960.
Typically, when the Fed raises short-term rates, stock prices fall, and long-term bond yields and the dollar rise. It’s this tightening of financial conditions more broadly, not the rise in short-term rates alone, that slows the economy. That’s what happened for the first six months of Fed tightening in more or less textbook fashion.
Image: Shell wants to expand its natural-gas business and keep oil flows steady for the rest of the decade. PHOTO: YUI MOK/ZUMA PRESS/Editing by Germán & CoShell’s New Strategy Avoids the Toughest Questions
The European energy major promises stable oil and gas production this decade, but higher hurdles for investments in lower-carbon alternatives
WSJ By Carol Ryan, June 14, 2023 Attacked on all sides, Europe’s energy bosses have a new pitch: They won’t cut fossil fuels until global demand falls. For investors, the strategy promises plenty of cash, but also questions.
On Wednesday, Shell SHEL 1.68%increase; green up pointing triangle released fresh targets at its investor day in New York, where Chief Executive Wael Sawan set out detailed goals for the company he took the helm of earlier this year. Among the new plans are additional cash for shareholders, steady fossil fuel production and a higher profit hurdle for clean-energy investments to get the green light.
Shell will distribute up to 40% of its cash flows to investors, an increase from up to 30% previously. This will happen “through the cycle,” according to the company’s statement, perhaps an assurance that there won’t be a repeat of Shell’s 2020 dividend cut. Cost efficiencies and lower capital spending will help fund the higher payouts. Despite the new handouts, Shell’s shares were up a muted 1% in early trading.
As long as demand for fossil fuels continues to grow, Shell will meet it. The company wants to expand its natural-gas business and keep oil flows steady for the rest of the decade. It previously planned to reduce oil production by 1% to 2% a year, though Shell says it has already met this target by selling assets. Rival BP made a similar shift earlier in February. Shell will also be more selective about investing in alternative sources of energy such as wind and solar, where returns have been disappointing.
Europe’s top oil companies clearly don’t want to jump the gun with the shift to cleaner energy. Shell’s Sawan thinks that cutting oil and gas production while global demand for fossil fuels is still growing is “unhealthy.” Similarly, TotalEnergies boss Patrick Pouyanné said during a recent interview with Columbia Energy Exchange that the company’s oil production “will begin to decline when we see the decline of demand.”
The case for not starving the world of oil and gas before an alternative energy system is in place is valid. Consumers and businesses don’t need a repeat of last year’s energy shortages and record-high prices. But the lion’s share of oil companies’ investment budgets is still being pumped into fossil fuels rather than alternatives. One risk for investors is that when the tipping point comes, oil companies won’t be as well prepared for the energy transition—or harsher regulations—as they should be.
The International Energy Agency thinks peak oil is on the way this decade. For now, there is no obvious candidate to replace oil and gas, or at least none that is as profitable. For example, BP is targeting returns on investment of up to 8% for renewable energy such as wind and solar, which is less than half what fossil fuel projects typically deliver. Biofuels are more promising, as are green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage, but these are still small markets.
European energy companies are trying to balance competing demands. Their valuations trade at a big discount to American oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron as investors reward companies that stick with fossil fuels. But shareholders don’t want too much investment in new oil exploration and prefer cash to be handed back instead. Shell, BP and TotalEnergies are also under pressure from ESG-minded European investors to address climate change.
Big Oil’s “over to you” message to society lets companies slow their bets on the energy transition for now. But it doesn’t add up to a convincing long-term plan.
News round-up, June 13, 2023
Editor's reflections...
“Due to global geopolitical tensions, Latin America is more forgotten than ever…
The task of finding news articles about Latin America in the global media can be daunting. The presidency of Manuel Andrés López Obrador of Mexico has been the subject of occasional reports, particularly regarding his disputes with neighboring countries to the north. Similarly, Colombian President Gustavo Petro's stance on Venezuela's autocratic government has been inconsistent, attracting attention from various quarters. The resurgence of Brazilian President, former labor leader and lobbyist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has also been a topic of discussion in recent times. Furthermore, the young Chilean President Gabriel Boric has encountered challenges as he navigates the deeply rooted power structures of his nation. President Boric has received praise for his positioning in international politics and outspoken condemnation of autocratic regimes in the region. The potential establishment of a Chinese military base in Cuba has raised concerns. However, it is worth noting that China has already established satellite police stations in numerous locations around the world. Furthermore, Peru, a nation renowned for its exquisite cuisine but plagued by political instability, is competing with Bolivia for the unenviable title of having the shortest presidential terms in the region. The phenomenon of transforming public spaces into temporary settlements for homeless populations due to the inability to afford rent is not unique to Argentina. Many countries in the region have experienced similar incidents, such as the transformation of Ezeiza International Airport in Buenos Aires into a hotel operated by the Salvation Army.
Most Read…
CPI Report Shows Inflation Has Been Cut in Half From Last Year’s Peak
U.S. May consumer prices rose 4.0% from year earlier
WSJ By Gwynn Guilford, June 13, 2023 Germany overtakes China as second most attractive country for renewables investment
The United States ranked first in EY's annual ranking of the top 40 renewable energy markets worldwide, with Germany moving up one spot to second for the first time in a decade.
Reuters By Nina Chestney, June 13, 2023Macron warns Ukraine counteroffensive could last ‘weeks, even months’
The leaders of France, Germany and Poland met in Paris to discuss giving Ukraine security guarantees.
POLITICO EU BY CLEA CAULCUTT, JUNE 12, 2023 'In the US, the culture war is hardly good for business'
Because of debates on gender and environmental issues, American companies are torn between progressives and those who denounce woke capitalism, writes New York correspondent Arnaud Leparmentier.
Le Monde, Arnaud Leparmentier, New York (United States) correspondent, Published today at 12:02 pm (Paris)Exclusive: Trump finds no new lawyers for court appearance in Mar-a-Lago case
Trump is expected to be represented by existing lawyers Todd Blanche and Chris Kise
The Guardian, Hugo Lowell in Doral, Miami, Tue 13 Jun 2023 Image by Germán & CoEditor's reflections...
“Due to global geopolitical tensions, Latin America is more forgotten than ever…
The task of finding news articles about Latin America in the global media can be daunting. The presidency of Manuel Andrés López Obrador of Mexico has been the subject of occasional reports, particularly regarding his disputes with neighboring countries to the north. Similarly, Colombian President Gustavo Petro's stance on Venezuela's autocratic government has been inconsistent, attracting attention from various quarters. The resurgence of Brazilian President, former labor leader and lobbyist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has also been a topic of discussion in recent times. Furthermore, the young Chilean President Gabriel Boric has encountered challenges as he navigates the deeply rooted power structures of his nation. President Boric has received praise for his positioning in international politics and outspoken condemnation of autocratic regimes in the region. The potential establishment of a Chinese military base in Cuba has raised concerns. However, it is worth noting that China has already established satellite police stations in numerous locations around the world. Furthermore, Peru, a nation renowned for its exquisite cuisine but plagued by political instability, is competing with Bolivia for the unenviable title of having the shortest presidential terms in the region. The phenomenon of transforming public spaces into temporary settlements for homeless populations due to the inability to afford rent is not unique to Argentina. Many countries in the region have experienced similar incidents, such as the transformation of Ezeiza International Airport in Buenos Aires into a hotel operated by the Salvation Army.
In conclusion, it can be stated that the Latin American and Caribbean region is characterized by the presence of major oil-producing nations, as well as countries that heavily depend on fuel imports. Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and Mexico are predominantly known for their crude oil exports, while Peru and Chile are recognized as significant importers of crude oil. The implementation of sanctions against Russia, a prominent global oil producer, has resulted in a prolonged increase in oil prices. As mentioned earlier, the result has the potential to provide benefits to oil-producing nations while also impacting the economic stability of countries that are net importers. The ongoing conflict has the potential to impact the pricing of food and agricultural commodities. The phenomenon being considered can be explained by Russia's dominant position as the primary global producer of wheat. This is further compounded by the ongoing conflict involving Ukraine, which is the world's third-largest wheat producer. As previously stated, the potential consequences of this situation are of great significance for countries such as Venezuela, which have a surplus in food product trade but a deficit in oil trade. Moreover, it is crucial to recognize that the prices of wheat, maize, barley, and rice have been considerably affected by export restrictions resulting from the conflict and sanctions. The inflation targets of several nations have been exceeded. Given that food prices constitute a substantial portion of the average consumption basket in the region, any abrupt price hike could lead to a rise in poverty rates, causing hunger and social unrest.
Considering an uncertain future, Latin America requires wise leadership to navigate the transition ahead and about all minimize the impact on the most vulnerable populations. As Pope Francis usually said: —"Pray for me..." —. This is exactly what the troubled region of the southern part of the American continent needs at this moment.
Most Read…
CPI Report Shows Inflation Has Been Cut in Half From Last Year’s Peak
U.S. May consumer prices rose 4.0% from year earlier
WSJ By Gwynn Guilford, June 13, 2023 Germany overtakes China as second most attractive country for renewables investment
The United States ranked first in EY's annual ranking of the top 40 renewable energy markets worldwide, with Germany moving up one spot to second for the first time in a decade.
Reuters By Nina Chestney, June 13, 2023Macron warns Ukraine counteroffensive could last ‘weeks, even months’
The leaders of France, Germany and Poland met in Paris to discuss giving Ukraine security guarantees.
POLITICO EU BY CLEA CAULCUTT, JUNE 12, 2023 'In the US, the culture war is hardly good for business'
Because of debates on gender and environmental issues, American companies are torn between progressives and those who denounce woke capitalism, writes New York correspondent Arnaud Leparmentier.
Le Monde, Arnaud Leparmentier, New York (United States) correspondent, Published today at 12:02 pm (Paris)Exclusive: Trump finds no new lawyers for court appearance in Mar-a-Lago case
Trump is expected to be represented by existing lawyers Todd Blanche and Chris Kise
The Guardian, Hugo Lowell in Doral, Miami, Tue 13 Jun 2023
The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image credit: NYT / Editing by Germán & CoCPI Report Shows Inflation Has Been Cut in Half From Last Year’s Peak
U.S. May consumer prices rose 4.0% from year earlier
WSJ By Gwynn Guilford, June 13, 2023 The job market remains robust and consumers have boosted their spending. PHOTO: RICHARD B. LEVINE/ZUMA PRESS
May inflation was around half of last year’s peak but remained far above what Federal Reserve officials would like to see.
The consumer-price index rose 4% in May from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, well below the recent peak of 9.1% last June and down from April’s 4.9% increase.
Fed officials are meeting June 13-14 to decide their next steps to cool inflation, which they would like to see at 2%. They could hold interest rates steady at the meeting, while preparing to increase rates again in the summer or the fall if they don’t think enough progress has been made on inflation.
So-called core consumer prices, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, climbed 5.3% in May from a year earlier, down from 5.5% in April. Economists see core prices as a better predictor of future inflation. Core prices remain elevated in part because an earlier surge in housing-rental prices continues to show up in the inflation figures.
Overall consumer prices increased a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in May from the prior month, down from April’s 0.4% increase. Core consumer prices rose 0.4% in May from the prior month, the same pace as in April and March.
May inflation was driven by rising housing prices along with higher used vehicles and food prices, the Labor Department said. Energy prices declined 3.6% in May from April.
The Fed has aggressively raised rates from low levels starting last year to slow economic growth and tame inflation. Fed officials in May raised the benchmark interest rate to the current range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level in 16 years.
Last month’s inflation figures may be more likely to influence whether Fed officials raise rates at their subsequent July meeting. Concerns that inflation isn’t slowing fast enough could lead more of them to signal in projections set for release Wednesday that they are prepared to lift rates again later this year even if they hold rates steady this week.
“Making slow progress is the big problem,” said Omair Sharif, who leads forecasting firm Inflation Insights. “There’s still a lot of debate among Fed officials over ‘how much more do we need to do?’
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image: Electrical power pylons with high-voltage power lines are seen next to wind turbines near Weselitz, Germany November 18, 2022. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner / Editing by Germán & CoGermany overtakes China as second most attractive country for renewables investment
The United States ranked first in EY's annual ranking of the top 40 renewable energy markets worldwide, with Germany moving up one spot to second for the first time in a decade.
Reuters By Nina Chestney, June 13, 2023LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Germany has overtaken China to become the second most attractive country in the world for renewables investment due to its efforts to speed up power market reform and move away from fossil fuels, research showed on Tuesday.
In an annual ranking of the top 40 renewable energy markets worldwide by consultancy EY, the United States was ranked first, with Germany climbing one place to second position for the first time in a decade.
Germany was Europe's biggest buyer of Russian gas until the war in Ukraine and has also been reliant on nuclear and coal. However, it closed its last three nuclear power stations in April.
"While this is a major milestone in its progress to accelerated energy transition targets, there is likely to be an increase in the use of coal in the short term, to reduce the effects of intermittency in the power supply," the report said.
Germany is aiming to have renewables make up 80% of its energy mix by 2030. Currently, renewables account for 46%, up from 41% at the start of 2022, the report said.
The United States held its top position in the index, supported by the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act last year, which earmarks $369 billion for investment in energy security and climate change.
However, there is a grid lock of renewables projects waiting to be connected to regional grids. Even though the offshore wind sector has grown, the U.S. administration’s goal of having 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2030 is likely to be missed by 10 GW, according to current construction dates announced by developers, the report said.
India moved ahead of Australia to sixth position in the index, due to the fast growth of its renewables industry, particularly solar.
Image credit: by Germán & CoMacron warns Ukraine counteroffensive could last ‘weeks, even months’
The leaders of France, Germany and Poland met in Paris to discuss giving Ukraine security guarantees.
POLITICO EU BY CLEA CAULCUTT, JUNE 12, 2023 PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Monday that the Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian forces could last “weeks, even months.”
“The counteroffensive has started. It’s going to be deployed for several weeks and even months. We are supporting it within the limits that we set ourselves,” Macron said alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish President Andrzej Duda at the Elysée Palace.
Ukrainian forces have stepped up operations in the last couple of days and announced on Monday evening that they had liberated several villages in the south and the east of the country.
“We want [the counteroffensive] to be as victorious as possible so that we can then start a period of negotiations in good conditions,” he added.
The French, Polish and German leaders were meeting in Paris to discuss Ukraine’s request for security guarantees and a clear pathway to NATO membership ahead of a summit of the military alliance in July. However, on Monday evening it appeared that the leaders were sending different signals in a press conference that was held ahead of a working dinner in Paris.
While Duda called for Ukraine to be given “a clear signal, a clear perspective” on its future membership of NATO, Scholz was less forthcoming, noting that debates were “intense.”
“We have been discussing security guarantees since the start of the war … We have taken decisions to support Ukraine for as long as needed. This debate is intense between us, between Germany, France, and its U.S. partners,” Scholz said. “We will finalize [our position] when we have the results of our talks. But … it must be very concrete.”
Earlier this month, Macron called for Ukraine to be given “strong and tangible” security guarantees but stopped short of calling for full-fledged NATO membership.
Macron, Scholz and Duda all pledged that their countries would continue supporting Ukraine during the counteroffensive. Scholz told reporters that Germany would support Ukraine for “as long as necessary” and said his country had also set up systems to repair weapons during the current assault.
Macron meanwhile said that France had “intensified deliveries” of weapons, ammunition and armored vehicles.
Image by Germán & Co'In the US, the culture war is hardly good for business'
Because of debates on gender and environmental issues, American companies are torn between progressives and those who denounce woke capitalism, writes New York correspondent Arnaud Leparmentier.
Le Monde, Arnaud Leparmentier, New York (United States) correspondent, Published today at 12:02 pm (Paris)Twenty billion dollars: That's how much a single can of Bud Lite cost Budweiser, the brewery king based in St. Louis, Missouri. The can was decorated with the face of a transgender woman influencer, who was quick to promote it on Instagram. Following the 45-second clip, disaster struck. A revolt formed at barbecues around the country. In the Midwest, small-town America stopped buying the famous light beer, which saw sales plummet by 20%. And there was panic on Wall Street, where the company's market capitalization lost $20 billion (€18.6 billion). This unprecedented shock, far from a mere anecdote, reflects the state of the debate in the United States. Climate change is threatening the planet, Russia is attacking Ukraine and conflict is brewing with China, but the topic obsessing America is the fate of transgender people, the climax of the culture war between conservatives and "woke".
What a change since eight years ago, when Donald Trump was campaigning to defend White workers in the deindustrialized regions of the Rust Belt! Today, the US is engaged in new isolationism to promote "America First." The fight is focused on the culture war, which is championed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a contender for the 2024 Republican nomination.
Of course, this reaction is no guarantee of success. The Supreme Court's decision to overturn the federal right to abortion in the summer of 2022 was a Pyrrhic victory, leading to the mobilization of women and the Republicans' relative defeat in the midterm elections. DeSantis, who has repeatedly gone too far, has put himself in difficulty in his face-off Trump.
Nonetheless, it's the dominant issue, and companies are fed up with being called upon to take a stand on every social issue. The peak was reached, quite rightly, with the May 2020 murder of an African-American man, George Floyd, by a white Minneapolis police officer. A stunned America collectively examined its conscience.
Negative value
The ebb first concerned the environment. After having a negative value on the markets at the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic, oil rebounded, contributing to inflation. The Republican message from the oil-producing states of the South and Midwest was threefold: Divestment would increase American dependence, drive up the price of a gallon of gasoline (which at one point exceeded $5) and reduce the performance of pension funds on the stock market. These states have passed laws banning public ESG (environmental, social and governance) investments. And the idea of divesting from carbon-emitting fuels has faded in a complex world: Can we treat companies that promise to use the carbon windfall to reinvest in renewables in the same way as those that vaguely promise to capture carbon?
In this debate, companies are caught between progressives and those who denounce woke capitalism. Anti-ESG initiatives are flourishing at shareholders' meetings: 68 resolutions this year, compared with 45 in 2022 and around 20 in previous years, according to the website Axios. As revealed by the Financial Times, a dozen major US financial companies, including BlackRock, Blackstone and KKR, explained in their annual reports that "divergent views" or "competing demands" on ESG criteria could affect their financial performance.
This debate affects the image of corporate America. According to the 2023 reputation rankings of America's top 100 brands, published by Axios in May, Twitter has long been hated, and Elon Musk's takeover hasn't done much for it (97th in the rankings, just ahead of Meta/Facebook). However, its boss's incessant political takes have had a major impact on Tesla, which has fallen from 12th to 62nd. On the left, Disney did not emerge completely unscathed from its tug-of-war with DeSantis over the controversies with its characters, as it dropped 12 places in the rankings to 77th. Clearly, the culture war is hardly good for business.
Image by Germán & CoExclusive: Trump finds no new lawyers for court appearance in Mar-a-Lago case
Trump is expected to be represented by existing lawyers Todd Blanche and Chris Kise
The Guardian, Hugo Lowell in Doral, Miami, Tue 13 Jun 2023
Donald Trump is expected to be represented at his first court appearance to face federal criminal charges for retaining national security materials and obstruction of justice by two of his existing lawyers, despite trying to recruit a local Florida lawyer willing to join his legal defense team.
The lawyers making an appearance with Trump on Tuesday will be the top former federal prosecutor Todd Blanche and the former Florida solicitor general Chris Kise, according to people familiar with the matter. Trump’s co-defendant, his valet Walt Nauta, will be represented by Stanley Woodward.
Trump and his legal team spent the afternoon before his arraignment interviewing potential lawyers but the interviews did not result in any joining the team in time for Trump’s initial court appearance scheduled for 3pm ET on Tuesday after several attorneys declined to take him as a client.
Trump has also seemingly been unable to find a specialist national security lawyer, eligible to possess a security clearance, to help him navigate the Espionage Act charges.
The last-minute scramble to find a veteran trial lawyer was a familiar process for Trump, who has had difficulty hiring and keeping lawyers to defend him in the numerous federal and state criminal cases that have dogged him through his presidency and after he left the White House.
After interviewing a slate of potential lawyers at his Trump Doral resort, the former president settled on having Kise appearing as the local counsel admitted to the southern district of Florida as a one-off, with Blanche being sponsored by him to appear pro hac vice, one of the people said.
Blanche and Kise had dinner with Trump and other advisers on Monday at the BLT Prime restaurant at the Doral.
Among the Florida lawyers who turned down Trump was Howard Srebnick, who had expressed an interest the former president at trial as early as last week in part due to the high fees involved, but ultimately was not allowed to after conferring with his law partners, the person said.
The other prominent lawyer who declined to work with Trump was David Markus, who recently defended the Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum against charges that he lied to the FBI and funnelled campaign contributions into his personal accounts, the person said.
Trump and his team have interviewed the corruption attorney Benedict Kuehne, who was indicted in 2008 for money laundering before the charges were dropped, the person said. But he has his own baggage as he faces disbarment for contempt of court in a recent civil suit he lost.
The other interviews are understood to have been with William Barzee, as well as Bruce Zimet, the former chief assistant US attorney in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.
Donald Trump arrives in Miami a day before his scheduled arraignment on a 37-count federal indictment involving classified documents. Photograph: Kyle Mazza/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Part of the problem of recruiting new lawyers has been Trump’s reputation for being a notoriously difficult client who has a record of declining legal advice and seeking to have his lawyers act as attack dogs or political aides rather than attorneys bound by ethics rules, people close to the process said.
The other concern for the top lawyers in Florida being contacted by Trump’s advisers has been the perceived reputational damage that could come from defending the former president, the people said, not just because of his politics but also because of the strength of the indictment, which could potentially lead to years in prison.
By using Trump’s own taped admissions about retaining national defense information and the witness accounts of his employees, the indictment gave compelling evidence of Trump’s efforts to hoard the country’s most sensitive secrets and obstruct the government’s attempts to get them back.
Trump is said to still be searching for a lawyer in the mold of Roy Cohn, the ruthless New York fixer who defended and mentored him before he was later disbarred – and the fear of potentially being asked to take similar actions has been a persistent issue.
That fear has loomed large for numerous lawyers Trump’s advisers have contacted, the people said, in particular after Trump might have made Evan Corcoran, another former lawyer who withdrew from his defense in the Mar-a-Lago documents investigation, into a witness against him.
According to the indictment, after Trump was issued a subpoena last year seeking the return of any classified documents, Trump took steps to remove boxes of documents from a storage room that Corcoran intended to search through in order to find materials responsive to the subpoena.
The steps Trump took to have those boxes removed from the storage room, an episode now at the heart of the obstruction charge, caused Corcoran to certify a false certification to the justice department confirming that no further documents were at the property, the indictment said.
As Trump’s search for new lawyers in Florida continues, Blanche is expected to take the lead role in the Mar-a-Lago documents case in addition to leading the team defending Trump against state charges in New York for paying hush money to an adult film star in 2016.
Though Kise is expected to appear alongside Blanche in federal district court in Miami, he has primarily handled civil litigation for Trump since he came off the documents case last October and is not expected to be on the trial team proper, a person familiar with the matter said.
The scramble to find Florida lawyers came after Jim Trusty and John Rowley, the two remaining Trump lawyers after the earlier resignation of Tim Parlatore and the recusal of Corcoran, became the latest casualties of a legal team undermined by turmoil and infighting.
News round-up, June 12, 2023
Most Read…
Why the U.S. Electric Grid Isn’t Ready for the Energy Transition…
…“Decarbonizing the power grid by 2035 could total $330 billion to $740 billion in additional power system costs, depending on restrictions on new transmission and other infrastructure development. However, there is substantial reduction in petroleum use in transportation and natural gas in buildings and industry by 2035. As a result, up to 130,000 premature deaths are avoided by 2035, which could save between $390 billion to $400 billion in avoided mortality costs.
www.nrel.gov / TIME by Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer, June 12, 2023In Russia, the outcome of Putin's leadership is being debated. Time and Newsweek offer two perspectives on the subject…
…“Sir Richard Dearlove, the former director of the United Kingdom's foreign intelligence service, on the potential trajectory of Vladimir Putin's leadership in Russia, are thought-provoking. According to Dearlove, the tenure of Putin as the leader of Russia will come to an end either due to his health or the intervention of another Russian faction.
Newsweek——————————————————————————-
Russia’s Elites Are Starting to Sour on Putin’s Chances of Winning the War in Ukraine…
TIME: BY BLOOMBERG NEWS, JUNE 8, 2023—————————————————————————-
There will be no civil war over Trump. Here’s why…
Nations go to war over the ideologies, religions, racism, social classes or economic policies. Trump represents nothing other than his own grievance…
The Guardian by Robert Reich, Mon 12 Jun 2023UN concerned by ‘discrepancy’ in Ukraine nuclear plant water levels after dam collapse
IAEA head Rafael Grossi, who will visit Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, says there is a difference of about 2 metres from the reservoir that cools the plant
Reuters, Mon 12 Jun, 2023Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Supreme Economic Eurasian Council at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, May 25, 2023 / Editing by Germán & CoMost Read…
Why the U.S. Electric Grid Isn’t Ready for the Energy Transition…
…“Decarbonizing the power grid by 2035 could total $330 billion to $740 billion in additional power system costs, depending on restrictions on new transmission and other infrastructure development. However, there is substantial reduction in petroleum use in transportation and natural gas in buildings and industry by 2035. As a result, up to 130,000 premature deaths are avoided by 2035, which could save between $390 billion to $400 billion in avoided mortality costs.
www.nrel.govTIME By Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer, June 12, 2023In Russia, the outcome of Putin's leadership is being debated. Time and Newsweek offer two perspectives on the subject…
…“Sir Richard Dearlove, the former director of the United Kingdom's foreign intelligence service, on the potential trajectory of Vladimir Putin's leadership in Russia, are thought-provoking. According to Dearlove, the tenure of Putin as the leader of Russia will come to an end either due to his health or the intervention of another Russian faction.
Newsweek——————————————————————————-
Russia’s Elites Are Starting to Sour on Putin’s Chances of Winning the War in Ukraine…
TIME: BY BLOOMBERG NEWS, JUNE 8, 2023—————————————————————————-
There will be no civil war over Trump. Here’s why
Nations go to war over the ideologies, religions, racism, social classes or economic policies. Trump represents nothing other than his own grievance…
The Guardian by Robert Reich, Mon 12 Jun 2023UN concerned by ‘discrepancy’ in Ukraine nuclear plant water levels after dam collapse
IAEA head Rafael Grossi, who will visit Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, says there is a difference of about 2 metres from the reservoir that cools the plant
Reuters, Mon 12 Jun, 2023The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image credit: www.nrel.gov / Editing by Germán & CoWhy the U.S. Electric Grid Isn’t Ready for the Energy Transition…
…“Decarbonizing the power grid by 2035 could total $330 billion to $740 billion in additional power system costs, depending on restrictions on new transmission and other infrastructure development. However, there is substantial reduction in petroleum use in transportation and natural gas in buildings and industry by 2035. As a result, up to 130,000 premature deaths are avoided by 2035, which could save between $390 billion to $400 billion in avoided mortality costs.
www.nrel.govTIME By Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer, June 12, 2023The U.S. electric grid is often described as a vast, synchronized machine — a network of wires carrying electricity from power plants across the country into our homes.
But, in reality, there is no single U.S. grid. There are three — one in the West, one in the East and one in Texas — that only connect at a few points and share little power between them.
Those grids are further divided into a patchwork of operators with competing interests. That makes it hard to build the long-distance power lines needed to transport wind and solar nationwide.
America’s fragmented electric grid, which was largely built to accommodate coal and gas plants, is becoming a major obstacle to efforts to fight climate change.
Tapping into the nation’s vast supplies of wind and solar energy would be one of the cheapest ways to cut the emissions that are dangerously heating the planet, studies have found. That would mean building thousands of wind turbines across the gusty Great Plains and acres of solar arrays across the South, creating clean, low-cost electricity to power homes, vehicles and factories.
But many spots with the best sun and wind are far from cities and the existing grid. To make the plan work, the nation would need thousands of miles of new high-voltage transmission lines — large power lines that would span multiple grid regions.
To understand the scale of what’s needed, compare today’s renewable energy and transmission system to one estimate of what it would take to reach the Biden administration’s goal of 100 percent clean electricity generation by 2035. Transmission capacity would need to more than double in just over a decade:
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory | The 2035 map is based on the “All Options” path from NREL’s 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Study. Both maps show utility-scale renewable projects, but do not include distributed installations, like rooftop solar.
There are enormous challenges to building that much transmission, including convoluted permitting processes and potential opposition from local communities. But the problems start with planning — or rather, a lack of planning.
There is no single entity in charge of organizing the grid, the way the federal government oversaw the development of the Interstate Highway System in the 1950s and ‘60s. The electric system was cobbled together over a century by thousands of independent utilities building smaller-scale grids to carry power from large coal, nuclear or gas plants to nearby customers.
By contrast, the kinds of longer-distance transmission lines that would transport wind and solar from remote rural areas often require the approval of multiple regional authorities, who often disagree over whether the lines are needed or who should pay for them.
“It’s very different from how we do other types of national infrastructure,” said Michael Goggin, vice president at Grid Strategies, a consulting group. “Highways, gas, pipelines — all that is paid for and permitted at the federal level primarily.”
In recent decades, the country has hardly built any major high-voltage power lines that connect different grid regions. While utilities and grid operators now spend roughly $25 billion per year on transmission, much of that consists of local upgrades instead of long-distance lines that could import cheaper, cleaner power from farther away.
“Utilities plan for local needs and build lines without thinking of the bigger picture,” said Christy Walsh, an attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
Study after study has found that broader grid upgrades would be hugely beneficial. A recent draft analysis by the Department of Energy found “a pressing need for additional electric transmission” — especially between different regions.
The climate stakes are high. Last year, Congress approved hundreds of billions of dollars for solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles and other technologies to tackle global warming. But if the United States can’t build new transmission at a faster pace, roughly 80 percent of the emissions reductions expected from that bill might not happen, researchers at the Princeton-led REPEAT Project found.
Already, a lack of transmission capacity means that thousands of proposed wind and solar projects are facing multiyear delays and rising costs to connect to the grid. In many parts of the country, existing power lines are often so clogged that they can’t deliver electricity from wind and solar projects to where it is needed most and demand is often met by more expensive fossil fuel plants closer to homes and businesses. This problem, known as congestion, costs the country billions of dollars per year and has been getting worse.
The dearth of long-distance transmission isn’t just a climate problem, said Mathias Einberger, a manager for RMI’s Carbon-Free Electricity Program. It spells trouble for reliability, too.
Many power operators are increasingly struggling to keep the lights on as demand rises and extreme weather events become more frequent and severe. More capacity to transfer power between regions could help, so that if a storm knocked out power plants in one area, its neighbors could send electricity. Texas, for example, could have suffered fewer blackouts during a deadly winter storm in 2021 if its isolated grid had more connections with the Southeast, one analysis found.
There are a few efforts underway to ease the bottlenecks. The Biden administration has billions of dollars to help fund transmission projects, and Congress has given the federal government new authority to override objections from state regulators for certain power lines deemed to be in the national interest.
“There’s no silver bullet,” said Maria Robinson, the director of the Department of Energy’s newly created Grid Deployment Office. “Every transmission project is unique like a fingerprint, facing its own challenges, so we need a large arsenal of tools to try to move things along.”
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, an independent agency that regulates interstate transmission of electricity, gas and oil, is exploring ways to encourage grid operators to do more long-term planning and to strengthen ties between regions. Some lawmakers have proposed bills that would give the commission more power to approve the routes of major new lines that pass through multiple states, the way it does with gas pipelines.
But these efforts still face plenty of resistance. Utilities are sometimes wary of long-distance transmission lines that might undercut their local monopolies. Some Republicans in Congress say giving the federal government more authority over transmission would trample on states’ rights. During the debt ceiling debate, Democrats floated a proposal to mandate more connectivity between different grid regions, a provision that was opposed by some utilities and Republicans, and was eventually dropped.
If the country continues to struggle to build long-distance transmission, it might need to opt for more expensive measures to fight climate change instead, a recent study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory found. That could mean building more advanced nuclear plants or gas plants that capture their emissions, which could in theory be built closer to population centers.
Getting better at managing how and when we use electricity could also relieve some of the pressure on the grid. For example, utilities could provide incentives for people to charge their electric cars and other devices when demand is low or ask them to turn off unnecessary appliances during extreme weather events.
But even that wouldn’t entirely cancel out the need for a lot more transmission.
“The grid is already a critical element of our energy system,” said Matteo Muratori, an analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. “But it’s going to become the central piece of the future energy system.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Supreme Economic Eurasian Council at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, May 25, 2023 / Editing by Germán & CoIn Russia, the outcome of Putin's leadership is being debated. Time and Newsweek offer two perspectives on the subject…
…“Sir Richard Dearlove, the former director of the United Kingdom's foreign intelligence service, on the potential trajectory of Vladimir Putin's leadership in Russia, are thought-provoking. According to Dearlove, the tenure of Putin as the leader of Russia will come to an end either due to his health or the intervention of another Russian faction. Despite the conjecture surrounding his considerable wealth, Dearlove posits that Putin will be unable to enjoy a luxurious retirement following his departure from the presidency. Dearlove acknowledged Putin's misstep regarding Ukraine and made a prediction of an unfavorable outcome for him. This statement suggests that Dearlove has knowledge and expertise in the subject matter and is making an informed analysis of the situation. Since the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, conjectures regarding Putin's physical condition and the possibility of a successor have been in circulation within the public discourse. According to Ukrainian intelligence, there are purported plans among Russian elites to replace President Putin with Alexander Bortnikov, who currently serves as the director of Russia's Federal Security Service.
NewsweekRussia’s Elites Are Starting to Sour on Putin’s Chances of Winning the War in Ukraine…
TIME: BY BLOOMBERG NEWS, JUNE 8, 2023Amood of deepening gloom is gripping Russia’s elite about prospects for President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, with even the most optimistic seeing a “frozen” conflict as the best available outcome now for the Kremlin.
Many within the political and business elite are tired of the war and want it to stop, though they doubt Putin will halt the fighting, according to seven people familiar with the situation, who asked not to be identified because the matter is sensitive. While nobody’s willing to stand up to the president over the invasion, absolute belief in his leadership has been shaken by it, four of the people said.
The most favorable prospect would be negotiations later in the year that would turn it into a “frozen” conflict and allow Putin to proclaim a Pyrrhic victory to Russians by holding on to some seized Ukrainian territory, two of the people said.
“There is elite deadlock: they are afraid to become scapegoats for a meaningless war,” said Kirill Rogov, a former Russian government advisor who left the country after the invasion and now heads Re:Russia, a Vienna-based think tank. “It is really surprising how widespread among the Russian elite became the idea of a chance that Putin won’t win this war.”
The growing despondency is likely to intensify a blame game over responsibility for the faltering invasion that’s already stirred bitter public divisions between nationalist hardliners and Russia’s Defense Ministry. With the Kremlin facing a Ukrainian counteroffensive that’s backed by billions in weapons from the US and Europe, expectations are low among Russian officials for any significant advances on the battlefield after a winter in which Moscow’s forces made little progress and incurred huge casualties.
The catastrophic breach of a giant dam in Ukraine on Tuesday that the government in Kyiv blamed on Russia further complicated the conflict as floodwater swept across parts of the conflict zone. Russia denied responsibility.
Attacks inside Russia are adding to a sense of insecurity, including the largest drone strikes last week targeting Moscow since the war began. Fighting has spread into the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine, challenging Putin’s image as the guarantor of Russia’s security.
Even some who support the invasion and want to intensify the fight against Ukraine have become deflated about Russia’s prospects in a war that was supposed to conclude within days and is now in its 16th month. Nationalists led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner mercenary group, have raged against Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s army chief Valery Gerasimov for military failings, as they press for a full-scale mobilization and martial law to avert a potentially catastrophic defeat.
“There have been too many big mistakes,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close Kremlin ties. “There were expectations a long time ago that Russia would take control of the majority of Ukraine but these expectations didn’t materialize.”
Putin and his top officials insist Russia will win, even as it’s no longer very clear what would constitute victory after its army failed to seize Kyiv early in the war. There’s no sign of any challenge to his leadership from within his circle.
Most in the elite are keeping their heads down and getting on with their work, convinced they can’t influence events, according to four of the people with knowledge of the situation. Putin shows no indication of wanting to end the war, five of the people said.
State media explain away repeated reverses by pumping out the message that Russia is fighting a proxy war in Ukraine against the US and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, though it was Putin who initiated the unprovoked invasion in February 2022.
The Kremlin has imposed the harshest repression in decades to punish even mild dissent with jail terms. Russia’s middle class who’d formed the bedrock of support for opposition to Putin’s rule in major cities in the past decade have been cowed into silence or have fled the country as part of the biggest wave of emigration since the 1990s after the Soviet Union’s collapse.
So far, polls show most ordinary Russians continue to back Putin, who’s mixed Soviet-era nostalgia with Russia’s imperial past to assert that he’s defending the country’s interests and reclaiming historical lands by annexing areas of eastern and southern Ukraine.
Still, concern may be ticking up again after spiking last fall when Putin announced a draft of 300,000 reservists. A May 19-21 survey of 1,500 Russians by the FOM polling company found 53% considered their family and friends were in an anxious mood, a jump of 11 percentage points since April and the highest in nearly four months.
Prigozhin toured Russian cities last week warning of a “difficult” war that may last years as he argued for martial law and full mobilization. He said in an interview last month that Russia risked a revolution similar to the one in 1917 because of the divide between the Kremlin elite and ordinary Russians whose children “come back in zinc coffins” from Ukraine.
The ruling United Russia party began an investigation after a senior State Duma lawmaker, Konstantin Zatulin, told a forum that the invasion had achieved none of its declared aims, Vedomosti reported Monday. “Let’s get out of this somehow,” Zatulin said.
Konstantin Malofeev, a Russian Orthodox nationalist supporter of Putin, wants Russia to keep fighting because “the Ukrainian state should cease to exist.” He rejects any talk of a cease-fire, though he said many within the ruling elite including a “huge number” of business people would support China’s recent peace initiative that envisages a truce.
“They say they support the special military operation but in reality they’re against it,” said Malofeev, a multi-millionaire who’s also sponsoring a volunteer force fighting in Ukraine. “In six months, we’ll have clear superiority in ammunition and shell production and we’ll be ready to go onto the attack.”
To be sure, Russia still possesses enormous resources for the fight. Its troops are dug in on the front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine and Ukrainian air defenses have been kept busy as Russian missiles and drones have rained down on the country throughout the past month.
Ukraine has ruled out a resolution of the conflict that leaves Russia occupying any of its territory, as it begins to unleash the counteroffensive that’s been months in preparation.
“It’s time to take back what’s ours,” Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said in a Telegram post May 27.
With no end to the fighting in sight, Russian officials and billionaire tycoons know they face potentially years of international isolation and deepening dependence on the Kremlin as Putin pushes businesses to back the war effort and bans those around him from leaving their posts.
They and their families have been hit with asset freezes and travel bans under US and European penalties that have also made Russia’s economy one of the world’s most sanctioned, upending decades of integration into global markets.
“Officials have adapted to the situation but no one sees any light at the end of the tunnel – they’re pessimistic about the future,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian journalist and central bank advisor who’s now a non-resident scholar at the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “The best they hope for is that Russia will lose without humiliation.”
Image credit: by Germán & CoThere will be no civil war over Trump. Here’s why
Nations go to war over the ideologies, religions, racism, social classes or economic policies. Trump represents nothing other than his own grievance…
The Guardian by Robert Reich, Mon 12 Jun 2023The former president of the United States, now running for re-election, assails “the ‘thugs’ from the Department of Injustice”, calls Special Counsel Jack Smith a “deranged lunatic” and casts his prosecutions and his bid for the White House as part of a “final battle” for America.
In a Saturday speech to the Georgia Republican party, Trump characterized the entire American justice system as deployed to prevent him from winning the 2024 election.
“These people don’t stop and they’re bad and we have to get rid of them. These criminals cannot be rewarded. They must be defeated.”
Once again, Trump is demanding that Americans choose sides. But in his deranged mind, this “final battle” is not just against his normal cast of ill-defined villains. It is between those who glorify him and those who detest him.
It will be a final battle over … himself.
“SEE YOU IN MIAMI ON TUESDAY!!!” he told his followers on Friday night in a Truth Social post, referring to his Tuesday arraignment.
It was chilling reminder of his 19 December 2020, tweet, “Be there, will be wild!” – which inspired extremist groups to disrupt the January 6 certification.
At the Georgia Republican party convention on Friday night, the Arizona Republican Kari Lake – who will go to Miami to “support” Trump – suggested violence.
“If you want to get to President Trump, you’re going to have to go through me and you’re going to have to go through 75 million Americans just like me,” Lake exclaimed to roaring cheers and a standing ovation. “Most of us are card-carrying members of the NRA,” the National Rifle Association gun lobby. “That’s not a threat, that’s a public service announcement.”
Most Republicans in Congress are once again siding with Trump rather than standing for the rule of law.
A few are openly fomenting violence. The Louisiana representative Clay Higgins suggested guerrilla warfare: “This is a perimeter probe from the oppressors. Hold. rPOTUS [a reference to the real president of the United States] has this. Buckle up. 1/50K know your bridges. Rock steady calm.”
Most other prominent Republicans – even those seeking the Republican presidential nomination – are criticizing Biden, Merrick Garland and the special counsel Jack Smith for “weaponizing” the justice department.
All this advances Trump’s goal of forcing Americans to choose sides over him.
Violence is possible, but there will be no civil war.
Nations don’t go to war over whether they like or hate specific leaders. They go to war over the ideologies, religions, racism, social classes or economic policies these leaders represent.
But Trump represents nothing other than his own grievance with a system that refused him a second term and is now beginning to hold him accountable for violating the law.
In addition, the guardrails that protected American democracy after the 2020 election – the courts, state election officials, the military, and the justice department – are stronger than before Trump tested them the first time.
Many of those who stormed the Capitol have been tried and convicted. Election-denying candidates were largely defeated in the 2022 midterms. The courts have adamantly backed federal prosecutors.
Third, Trump’s advocates are having difficulty defending the charges in the unsealed indictment – that Trump threatened America’s security by illegally holding (and in some cases sharing) documents concerning “United States nuclear programs; potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack; and plans for possible retaliation in response to a foreign attack”, and then shared a “plan of attack” against Iran.
Republicans consider national security the highest and most sacred goal of the republic. A large number have served in the armed forces.
Trump’s own attorney general, Bill Barr, said on Fox News Sunday that he was “shocked by the degree of sensitivity of these documents and how many there were, frankly … If even half of it is true, then he’s toast. I mean, it’s a very detailed indictment, and it’s very, very damning. And this idea of presenting Trump as a victim here, a victim of a witch-hunt, is ridiculous.”
None of this is cause for complacency. Trump is as loony and dangerous as ever. He has inspired violence before, and he could do it again.
But I believe that many who supported him in 2020 are catching on to his lunacy.
Trump wants Americans to engage in a “final battle” over his own narcissistic cravings. Instead, he will get a squalid and humiliating last act.
Image by Germán & CoUN concerned by ‘discrepancy’ in Ukraine nuclear plant water levels after dam collapse
IAEA head Rafael Grossi, who will visit Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, says there is a difference of about 2 metres from the reservoir that cools the plant
Reuters, Mon 12 Jun, 2023The UN atomic watchdog has said it needs wider access around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to check “a significant discrepancy” in water level data at the breached Kakhovka dam used for cooling the plant’s reactors.
International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi, who is to visit the plant this week, said that measurements the agency received from the inlet of the plant showed that the dam’s water levels were stable for about a day over the weekend.
“However, the height is reportedly continuing to fall elsewhere in the huge reservoir, causing a possible difference of about 2 metres,” Grossi said in a statement.
“The height of the water level is a key parameter for the continued operability of the water pumps”.
The water from the reservoir is used to cool the facility’s six reactors and spent fuel storage, the IAEA said.
The agency has said earlier that the Zaporizhzhia plant can fall back on other water sources when the reservoir’s water is no longer available, including a large cooling pond above the reservoir with several months’ worth of water.
The destruction of the Kakhovka hydropower dam in southern Ukraine last week has flooded towns downstream and forced thousands of people from their homes.
Both the Kakhovka hydropower dam and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant have been occupied by Russia since the early days of its invasion in February 2022.
“It is possible that this discrepancy in the measured levels is caused by an isolated body of water separated from the larger body of the reservoir,” Gross said in the statement. “But we will only be able to know when we gain access to the thermal power plant.”
Grossi said the thermal power plant “plays a key role for the safety and security of the nuclear power plant a few kilometres away,” hence the need for access and independent assessment.
The war in Ukraine has changed the world, and the Guardian has covered every minute of it. Our people on the ground have endured personal risk and hardship to produce more than 5,000 articles, films and podcasts since the invasion. Our liveblog has reported continuously and comprehensively since the outbreak of Europe’s biggest war since 1945.
We know it’s crucial that we stay till the end. Will you join us? There is no substitute for being there – and we’ll stay on the ground, as we did during the 1917 Russian Revolution, the Ukrainian famine of the 1930s, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the first Russo-Ukrainian conflict in 2014. We have an illustrious, 200-year history of reporting throughout Europe in times of upheaval, peace and everything in between. We won’t let up now. Will you make a difference and support us too?
Tens of millions have placed their trust in the Guardian’s fearless journalism since we started publishing 200 years ago, turning to us in moments of crisis, uncertainty, solidarity and hope. We’d like to invite you to join more than 1.5 million supporters from 180 countries who now power us financially – keeping us open to all, and fiercely independent.
Unlike many others, the Guardian has no shareholders and no billionaire owner. Just the determination and passion to deliver high-impact global reporting, always free from commercial or political influence. Reporting like this is vital to establish the facts: who is lying and who is telling the truth.
News round-up, June 9, 2023
Exclusive: Analysis by Spiegel of President Vladimir Putin's Stay as a KGB Agent in Dresden, Germany: Is it all true?
…”Over several years, a discourse has been widely circulated regarding the President of Russia. In the 1980s, Vladimir Putin held a position as a junior officer within the KGB, a prominent intelligence agency of the Soviet Union. The individual was tasked with conducting covert operations while deployed in East Germany. His responsibilities included executing covert activities. According to the reports, he sustained communication with leftist militants linked to the Red Army Faction (RAF) in West Germany. He furnished them with armaments and directives during his tenure at the agency's station in Dresden.
Germán & CoMost Read…
Donald Trump Was Just Indicted in the Classified Documents Case. Here's What to Know
Reports state that the federal government has indicted Donald Trump and must appear in federal court in Miami on Tuesday afternoon—the first indictment of a former president on federal charges. Trump also faces charges for 2016 campaign hush payments in Manhattan court. He faces seven undisclosed federal charges. Trump announced on social media that he must appear at the federal courthouse in Miami on Tuesday at 3 p.m.
TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT, JUNE 8, 2023 The future of Russia — and its opposition
It’s important for Western countries to recognize that the broad-based Russian opposition is a crucial ally in the confrontation with the Putin regime.
POLITICO EU BY MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, JUNE 5, 2023 AES buys solar + storage project in California
The Bellefield project from Avantus, one of the most significant solar-plus-storage projects in the United States. The project consists of two phases, each capable of generating 500 MW of solar power and storing up to 500 MW of energy in batteries.
RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLD, JUNE 8, 2023 Exclusive: Russia's Novatek offered Argentina know-how to liquefy gas from Vaca Muerta
Moscow now possesses control of LNG technology that was previously held by Western companies, thanks to Novatek. Russian businesses are demonstrating their technological expertise in Latin America using Russian concrete gravity base structures for Arctic LNG 2. The first train is expected to be operational by the end of the year.
REUTERS BY VLADIMIR, SOLDATKIN, JUNE 9, 2023 / EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO Russian President’s Years in Germany…
SPIEGEL BY SVEN RÖBEL UND WOLFGANG TIETZE, 07.06.2023 Image credit: KGB officer Putin's access badge for the Stasi officesImage: Stasi-Unterlagen-ArchivExclusive: Analysis by Spiegel of President Vladimir Putin's Stay as a KGB Agent in Dresden, Germany: Is it all true?
…”Over several years, a discourse has been widely circulated regarding the President of Russia. In the 1980s, Vladimir Putin held a position as a junior officer within the KGB, a prominent intelligence agency of the Soviet Union. The individual was tasked with conducting covert operations while deployed in East Germany. His responsibilities included executing covert activities. According to the reports, he sustained communication with leftist militants linked to the Red Army Faction (RAF) in West Germany. He furnished them with armaments and directives during his tenure at the agency's station in Dresden.
Germán & CoMost Read…
Donald Trump Was Just Indicted in the Classified Documents Case. Here's What to Know
Reports state that the federal government has indicted Donald Trump and must appear in federal court in Miami on Tuesday afternoon—the first indictment of a former president on federal charges. Trump also faces charges for 2016 campaign hush payments in Manhattan court. He faces seven undisclosed federal charges. Trump announced on social media that he must appear at the federal courthouse in Miami on Tuesday at 3 p.m.
TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT, JUNE 8, 2023 The future of Russia — and its opposition
It’s important for Western countries to recognize that the broad-based Russian opposition is a crucial ally in the confrontation with the Putin regime.
POLITICO EU BY MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, JUNE 5, 2023AES buys solar + storage project in California
The Bellefield project from Avantus, one of the most significant solar-plus-storage projects in the United States. The project consists of two phases, each capable of generating 500 MW of solar power and storing up to 500 MW of energy in batteries.
Renewable Energy World, June 8, 2023Exclusive: Russia's Novatek offered Argentina know-how to liquefy gas from Vaca Muerta
Moscow now possesses control of LNG technology that was previously held by Western companies, thanks to Novatek. Russian businesses are demonstrating their technological expertise in Latin America using Russian concrete gravity base structures for Arctic LNG 2. The first train is expected to be operational by the end of the year.
REUTERS By Vladimir, Soldatkin, June 9, 2023 / Editing by Germán & CoRussian President’s Years in Germany…
Spiegel By Sven Röbel und Wolfgang Tietze, 07.06.2023The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image credit: by Germán & CoDonald Trump Was Just Indicted in the Classified Documents Case. Here's What to Know
Reports state that the federal government has indicted Donald Trump and must appear in federal court in Miami on Tuesday afternoon—the first indictment of a former president on federal charges. Trump also faces charges for 2016 campaign hush payments in Manhattan court. He faces seven undisclosed federal charges. Trump announced on social media that he must appear at the federal courthouse in Miami on Tuesday at 3 p.m.
TIME BY BRIAN BENNETT, JUNE 8, 2023 Former President Donald Trump has been indicted on federal charges for his handling of classified documents and told to appear in federal court in Miami on Tuesday afternoon, he said on his Truth Social account Thursday night. ABC News broke into regular TV programming shortly after 7 p.m. to report that a grand jury in Florida had voted to indict Trump on multiple federal charges.
It is the first time a former president has faced federal charges. In a separate case, Trump is facing local charges in a Manhattan court for hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels made during his 2016 campaign. Trump has been told he is facing seven charges in the federal case, according to a source in contact with him. The exact charges were unclear.
Trump, who is running for another term as president and remains the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, wrote on his social media site at 7:21 pm on Thursday that he has been summoned to appear at the federal courthouse in Miami on Tuesday at 3 p.m.
“The corrupt Biden Administration has informed my attorneys that I have been Indicted, seemingly over the Boxes Hoax,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “I AM AN INNOCENT MAN!”
Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith as a special counsel in November to oversee the investigation into whether Trump broke the law by taking sensitive national-security documents when he moved out of the White House in January 2020, or obstructed the government’s efforts to retrieve them.
The FBI obtained a search warrant in August to enter Mar-a-Lago and found more than 100 classified documents. The discovery came after Trump’s advisors had said they had already conducted a “diligent search” of the property and turned over “any and all” papers marked classified. Federal officials had been negotiating with Trump for more than a year by then over the return of government documents he had taken with him to his Mar-a-Lago Club.
The federal indictment is the latest addition to Trump’s mounting legal troubles. Smith is also overseeing a separate investigation into Trump’s role in trying to overturn the 2020 election results and encourage a violent mob of supporters to enter the Capitol Building on Jan. 6, 2021, to interrupt the certification of the election results.
In Georgia, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is moving forward with a case looking at Trump’s effort to reverse his 2020 loss in Georgia by encouraging state election officials to “find” votes. New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Trump in November, alleging he fraudulently overvalued his properties to insurers and bank lenders. And in Manhattan court, District Attorney Alvin Bragg, has charged Trump with 34 felony counts of falsification of business records that Bragg says were designed to hide payments intended to keep quiet his alleged affair with Daniels in the weeks before the 2016 election. Trump has called all of the investigations against him hoaxes designed to hurt him politically.
Trump has made claims that he is the victim of a politically-motivated conspiracy to keep him from returning to office an animating force of his political movement. Both while in office and in the years afterward, he used two impeachments and Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia’s effort to help Trump win the 2016 election to energize his supporters. The top of his social media feed on Truth Social reads: “THEY’RE NOT COMING AFTER ME, THEY’RE COMING AFTER YOU—I’M JUST STANDING IN THEIR WAY!” When he was indicted in Manhattan in April, Trump raised more than $1 million in campaign funds off the news.
Within minutes of the news breaking Thursday evening, Trump’s campaign was fundraising off his latest indictment. “This is nothing but a disgusting act of Election Interference by the ruling party to ELIMINATE its opposition and amass total control over our country,” read one campaign email with the subject line “BREAKING: INDICTED” and paid for by Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee.
Trump’s allies were quick to defend the former President, and claim that the federal indictment was a play by President Joe Biden to torpedo Trump’s campaign. Earlier Thursday, Biden was asked at a press conference how he can restore Americans’ trust in the Department of Justice with Trump attacking it. “Because you’ll notice, I’ve never once, not one single time, suggested to the Justice Department what they should do or not do relative to bringing a charge or not bring a charge. I’m honest.” Biden tapped the podium twice for emphasis and walked out.
A trial date for the Manhattan case has been set for March 2024, right in the middle of the presidential campaign season. That means that Trump, who announced his intention to take back the White House in November, will be campaigning across the country while defending himself in court against two ongoing criminal cases.
Some legal experts have argued Trump is particularly vulnerable to prosecution in the documents case. “I think this one is the most damaging because not only is there so much evidence, but it goes directly to the heart of his ability to be the leader of our country,” Jessica Levinson, a professor at Loyola Law School, recently told TIME. “It’s truly a complete undermining of his job if he really took government documents that don’t belong to him, if he showed people government documents that could have put our country at risk, and if he obstructed justice by not complying with a subpoena.”
Even if Trump is convicted by the special counsel, the charges against him won’t disqualify him from the presidency, according to legal experts. Under the Constitution, all natural-born citizens who are at least 35 years old and have been a resident of the U.S. for 14 years can run for president. There is no legal impediment to Trump continuing his presidential campaign while facing criminal charges—even if he were jailed.
“Indictment is absolutely no legal bar to him running,” says Levinson. “And a conviction is not a legal bar to him serving.”
At least two candidates with criminal convictions have run for president in the past, albeit unsuccessfully. In 1920 a candidate named Eugene Debs ran for president while in a federal prison in Atlanta as the nominee of the Socialist Party. Debs was convicted of violating the Espionage Act over an anti-war speech, and won more than 3% of the vote nationally. Lyndon LaRouche ran for president in every election between 1976 and 2004. LaRouche, a fringe candidate who embraced conspiracy theories, was convicted of tax and mail fraud in 1988 and ran his 1992 campaign from prison.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoThe future of Russia — and its opposition
It’s important for Western countries to recognize that the broad-based Russian opposition is a crucial ally in the confrontation with the Putin regime.
POLITICO EU BY MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, JUNE 5, 2023Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former political prisoner and CEO of Yukos Oil company, is the author of “The Russia Conundrum: How the West Fell for Putin’s Power Gambit — and How to Fix It.”
At the initiative of Lithuanian MEP Andrius Kubilius and others, a two-day conference will take place in the European Parliament in Brussels this week, with the participation of over 200 representatives from Russia’s anti-war and opposition groups, journalists, prominent cultural figures, as well as European politicians.
There are just two topics for discussion on the agenda: the future of Russia and the future strategy of the Russian opposition.
Previous experience, both in Russia and elsewhere, has long shown that personality-based regimes — such as the one in Moscow today — can often implode without warning, unable to withstand the stresses caused by a failed war. And at that critical moment, the country’s future depends, in large part, on who picks up the reins of power — and how.
Interestingly, the present situation in Russia is developing in such a way that at this moment, the West can have a significant — albeit not definitive — voice in this transition, since large segments of the Russian elite have an interest in the repeal of Western sanctions, imposed in response to President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
This gathering in Brussels is by no means the first coordinated action by the Russian opposition, however. The Free Russia Forum, organized by Garry Kasparov, has been meeting regularly in Vilnius since 2016; Lithuania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs organizes an annual conference with the Russian opposition; and a very productive meeting, including several of the largest European parliamentary parties, recently took place between the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the Russian opposition as well.
Additionally, in preparation for the Brussels conference, around 70 anti-war and opposition groups met in Berlin in April to agree on a common declaration, which has now been signed by 30,000 Russians.
This common position is that the war is criminal, that the regime that unleashed it is illegitimate and must be removed from power, that Ukraine’s sovereignty within its 1991 borders must be restored and war criminals punished, that the victims of the aggression must be compensated and that all political prisoners and prisoners of war must be released.
We also believe that a future Russian leadership must abandon imperialism, both internally and externally.
Some of the discussions in coming to this position were not easy to have. For example, the issue of restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea is contentious for many Russians. And matters of compensation and tribunals will require serious work not only with the pro-Putin part of Russia’s population, but even with some of those opposed to the war.
Lest we forget, signing such a declaration is also regarded as a crime by the Kremlin. And the prison terms prescribed are brutal, ranging from 10 to 20 years.
Meanwhile, there’s a part of the human rights community that’s uncomfortable with violent methods of struggle against the regime. Whereas others — and I count myself among them — believe that peaceful regime change in Russia is impossible.
Despite these differences, in our discussions, we also agreed that a unification of the opposition under a single leadership, or gathered into a single party, isn’t needed. This would be a catastrophic mistake, as it would lay the foundations for the restoration of authoritarianism after Putin’s fall.
Russian citizens’ interests are no longer represented by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “criminal regime” | Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images
However, I am convinced that we need to coordinate our actions on key, broad questions that concern us all, and to this end, a whole series of working groups and large-scale joint projects have already been created to provide assistance to Ukraine and Russian refugees, and they are operational. At the same time, some anti-war groups have joined forces to train those ready and committed to return to Russia on the “first flight back” after the fall of the regime.
Thus, we are already gaining experience in working as a coalition, which will serve as a good foundation for building a new, democratic model for the country, with separation of powers and a system of checks and balances.
And today, we all agree that our joint focus should be on three areas: the coordination of anti-war initiatives and humanitarian aid for Ukraine; media support for anti-war activism and counterpropaganda; and help for Russian citizens whose interests are no longer represented by Putin’s criminal regime.
I, for one, have my own ideas of what the future Russia should look like and the preferred paths to transition — the abridged version of my manifesto on this, entitled “How to Slay a Dragon,” has been translated into several European languages. And for me, personally, the key goal of this upcoming meeting in Brussels is to agree, as a coalition, on how to represent the interests of those who have cut their ties with the regime, and how best to help them in practical terms.
Besides that, the conference will also give us an important opportunity to remind European politicians of our stance:
For us, reaching a negotiated agreement with Putin about medium- or long-term issues is out of the question. Merely replacing Putin with another individual with yet another name — without a transition to a parliamentary model of governance with free and fair elections — will change nothing. And a coalition model of transition offers a real possibility of democratization, while a transition through a single revolutionary party guarantees authoritarianism.
What’s more, we believe that the break-up of Russia would be dangerous, not only for Russians but also for the West; that communication with Russian society is no less important than sanctions; and that even though the Kremlin’s unlawful influence on political processes in Western countries has diminished greatly over the past 15 months, it remains significant — and could become stronger.
All in all, it’s important for Western countries to recognize that the broad-based Russian opposition is a crucial ally in the West’s confrontation with the Putin regime — which is fast becoming increasingly fascist.
Image credit: AES / Editing by Germán & CoAES buys solar + storage project in California
The Bellefield project from Avantus, one of the most significant solar-plus-storage projects in the United States. The project consists of two phases, each capable of generating 500 MW of solar power and storing up to 500 MW of energy in batteries.
Renewable Energy World, June 8, 2023AES Corp. said it acquired from Avantus (formerly 8minute) the 2 GW Bellefield project, which is currently in late-stage development and is one of the largest permitted solar-plus-storage projects in the United States.
The project is located in Kern County, California, and includes two phases, each with 500 MW of solar and up to 500 MW of four-hour duration battery energy storage.
Phase one has a 15-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) to deliver hourly energy to an existing AES corporate customer. AES said it expects to contract up to an additional 1 GW of solar-plus-storage in phase two of the project by the end of 2023.
The two phases were developed by the seller, Avantus, and are expected to come online in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Additional terms were not disclosed.
Alberta Investment Management Corporation is an investor in AES’ clean energy business in the U.S. with 25% ownership of the business’ growth projects. Onpeak Capital LLC served as the financial advisor and Foley & Lardner LLP served as legal counsel for Avantus.
AES has been shifting from its portfolio of coal-fired plants to renewable energy projects. It plans to exit its coal portfolio by the end of 2025. It said it also expects to triple its renewable energy capacity by adding 25 to 30 GW of solar, wind and energy storage.
A participant walks past a stand of Russian gas producer Novatek during the Russian Energy Week International Forum in Moscow, Russia October 13, 2021. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov / Editing by Germán & CoExclusive: Russia's Novatek offered Argentina know-how to liquefy gas from Vaca Muerta
Moscow now possesses control of LNG technology that was previously held by Western companies, thanks to Novatek. Russian businesses are demonstrating their technological expertise in Latin America using Russian concrete gravity base structures for Arctic LNG 2. The first train is expected to be operational by the end of the year.
REUTERS By Vladimir, Soldatkin, June 9, 2023 / Editing by Germán & Co
MOSCOW, June 9 (Reuters) - Russia's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) Novatek (NVTK.MM) last year offered technology to build a plant to produce the gas from Argentina's Vaca Muerta field, a highly-placed source familiar with the proposal said, though the talks have since broken off.
The source said that Novatek proposed to help implement Argentina's plans to build an LNG plant to liquefy gas from Vaca Muerta, a massive shale formation in western Argentina seen as key to boosting the South American country's gas supplies and reducing the need for pricey imports.
According to the source, Novatek told Argentina's government it has developed a unique
infrastructure for construction of LNG plants based on concrete gravity base structures (GBS) in shallow offshore waters.
"There are no negotiations (with Novatek)," Argentina's energy secretariat said in response to the query about the offer by the Russian company.
Novatek did not reply to a request for comment.
In September, Argentina's state oil company YPF (YPFD.BA) and its Malaysian counterpart, Petronas, inked a deal to build a major LNG plant and a pipeline to transport the fuel.
Novatek's approach indicates Moscow's ability to develop, at least partially, its own large-scale LNG-producing technology, which had been exclusively provided in Russia by Western companies before they withdrew from the country last year due to the conflict in Ukraine.
It also highlights Russian businesses' drive to expand their global reach as far as Latin America after President Vladimir Putin urged business to pivot away from the West.
Russian concrete gravity base structures will be used in Novatek's Arctic LNG 2 plant in Russia. The first technological line, or train, of the plant is due to start production at the end of this year.
Novatek said in its offer to Argentina that the technology allows for construction of one LNG train with production capacity of 7 million tonnes per year within 2.5-3 years, according to the source.
The Vaca Muerta formation, in Argentina's Patagonian south, is the size of Belgium. It holds the world's second-largest shale gas reserves and the fourth-largest shale oil deposits.
It could become a key global supplier of gas as the world looks for alternatives to Russia, whose energy industry has been heavily sanctioned over its military campaign in Ukraine.
The LNG project promises future dollar earnings for the cash-strapped South American country even though the gains are still years out. Growing production from Vaca Muerta should also allow for less reliance on costly gas imports over time.
Image: Spiegel / Stasi-Unterlagen-Archiv / Editing by Germán & CoExclusive: Analysis of President Vladimir Putin's Stay as a KGB Agent in Dresden, Germany: Is it all true?
Over several years, a discourse has been widely circulated regarding the President of Russia. In the 1980s, Vladimir Putin held a position as a junior officer within the KGB, a prominent intelligence agency of the Soviet Union. The individual was tasked with conducting covert operations while deployed in East Germany. His responsibilities included executing covert activities. According to the reports, he sustained communication with leftist militants linked to the Red Army Faction (RAF) in West Germany. He furnished them with armaments and directives during his tenure at the agency's station in Dresden.
Russian President’s Years in Germany…
Spiegel By Sven Röbel und Wolfgang Tietze, 07.06.2023For a number of years, a story has been circulating about the Russian president. It goes like this: During the 1980s, Vladimir Putin was on a top-secret mission in East Germany as a young officer in the feared Soviet secret service agency KGB. From the agency's station in Dresden, he purportedly maintained contacts with left-wing terrorists belonging the Red Army Faction (RAF) in West Germany, supplying them with both weapons and instructions.
Putin is said to have repeatedly led conspiratorial meetings between the KGB, the East German Ministry for State Security (the notorious Stasi) and the RAF, at which attacks on prominent targets were also discussed – such as the assassination of Deutsche Bank CEO Alfred Herrhausen.
The narrative of Putin's alleged RAF connections found its way into two standard international works on the Kremlin leader's life – including British journalist Catherine Belton's bestseller "Putin's People." The same informant apparently served as the source in both works: an alleged former RAF member who was granted anonymity.
For quite some time, experts puzzled over who the source for the RAF story could be. Now, it seems, the mystery has been resolved: The person in question is believed to be Dietmar C. from the town of Dillingen in the western state of Saarland.
That fact could prove to be a serious problem for the credibility of the Putin narrative. It turns out that C., now 71, has been many things in his eventful life: a hippie, a bank robber, a key source of questionable revelations – but he was very clearly never a member of the RAF. Instead, he is considered a notorious fabulist and has several previous convictions, including for making false statements.
Purported RAF insider Dietmar C. in 2001 in a court in Budapest, HungaryImage: Tibor Rozsahegy / picture-alliance / dpa / Editing by Germán & CoThe case highlights a broader problem with some of the reporting that has been conducted into Putin's KGB past. Ever since the former spy ascended to become Russia’s leader, researchers, journalists and biographers have been combing through his years of service in East Germany from 1985 to 1990. In the eagerness to find new details, fact and fiction have sometimes blurred, and somewhere along the line, the man from Leningrad gained the reputation for being a Soviet super agent.
The literature is full of speculation about Hollywood-like special missions in which Putin is alleged to have been involved: a secret operation to overthrow the East German government; the establishment of a network of agents made up of defected Stasi employees; or the blackmail of a toxic materials researcher, on whom pornographic material was to be planted.
Even today, there is no convincing evidence for these stories. In the Stasi files that have been made public so far, there are only a few pages in which Putin is even mentioned at all. They cover rather banal events such as birthday greetings, administrative matters or German-Soviet friendship evenings, captured in slightly faded photographs.
The fact that there is so little about him in the files itself provides grounds for speculation: Were Putin's assignments so explosive that all traces were consistently erased from official documents? Or was he actually just performing routine work that was simply too trivial to be archived by the Stasi?
A collection of slightly yellowed photos from the 1980s is stored in the Stasi archives. They document internal festivities, receptions and award ceremonies of the Stasi district administration in Dresden. Some of the photos show a pale man whose face is now world-famous.
Vladimir Putin worked in the Dresden station of the Soviet KGB secret servicefrom 1985 to 1990. Daily life at the local station wasn't all that glamorous.
But there were moments, occasional celebrations that were also attended by colleagues from East Germany's State Security (the Stasi).
One of the undated snapshots shows the future Russian leader in a crowd at the buffet.
From Putin's time in Dresden, it is said the he had a special appreciation for the local beer, Radeberger, which was difficult for normal citizens of East Germany to obtain.
Putin's fondness for the tipple apparently didn't go unnoticed by East Germany's Ministry of State Security.
According to a handwritten note in the margin of an internal memo, Dresden Stasi chief Horst Böhm not only had his colleague Putin presented with flowers and a card for his 35th birthday, but also with a beer mug.
According to Horst Jehmlich, the chief aide to the last Dresden Stasi chief, Putin played only a minor role in the neighboring KGB station. Putin was more of an "errand boy" at the regional KGB station, Jehmlich told DER SPIEGEL. Although Putin sometimes signed requests to the Ministry of State Security (MfS), important matters were always clarified personally by the Soviet head of the KGB station – with the help of an MfS interpreter and without Putin.
Putin's former office neighbor at the KGB office in Dresden echoed Jehmlich's view. He said that his colleague was "a complete conformist" whose work consisted mainly of sifting through an endless stream of applications to visit family in West Germany or searching for potential informants among foreign students at the University of Dresden.
None of that served to diminish speculation about explosive special missions, especially since Putin himself has never made any explicit statements about the work he performed in East Germany. The legend of having been a top spy shrouded in secrecy isn't likely one that he finds particularly bothersome.
The wildest story to date – that of Putin's purported involvement in RAF terror – first surfaced in the 2012 biography "The Man Without a Face" by Masha Gessen. In it, an alleged "former RAF member" describes how members of the extreme left-wing terrorist group "occasionally came to Dresden for training sessions" and brought their contact Putin gifts from the West – a Grundig short-wave receiver, for example, or a stolen Blaupunkt car stereo. "He always wanted to have things," the informant told Gessen. The interview took place in Bavaria in August 2011.
Apparently the same anonymous source is quoted in Catherine Belton's 2020 bestseller "Putin's People." "We met there (in Dresden) about a half a dozen times," the alleged former terrorist claims in that book. According to the source, the RAF people would travel to East Germany by train and were picked up at the train station by Stasi agents in a Soviet-made sedan and driven to a safe house in Dresden, where, Putin and another KGB colleague would join them to discuss terrorist operations. "They would never give us instructions directly," the informant said. "They would just say: 'We heard you were planning this, how do you want to do it?'" Putin and his KGB colleague, the source said, would then make "suggestions" to the RAF fighters for attacks and sometimes recommended "other targets."
Citing her source, Belton writes that Putin "would be among the leaders" in these secret meetings in Dresden. Even a Stasi general, who was allegedly also present, would obey his orders, according to the source. At the end, the source said, the terrorists handed over their wish lists for weapons, which would then allegedly be delivered to secret locations by KGB agents and picked up by RAF members.
According to Belton's source, the terror of the RAF was at the time a "key part of KGB attempts to disrupt and destabilize" West Germany. The assassination of Herrhausen, which was allegedly also initiated by Putin and the KGB, also allegedly served this purpose. The head of Deutsche Bank was murdered in the Frankfurt suburb of Bad Homburg on November 30, 1989, in a bomb attack that remains unsolved to this day.
The bombed-out sedan of murdered Deutsche Bank CEO Alfred Herrhausen in Bad Homburg, Germany, in 1989Image: Kai-Uwe Wärner / picture-alliance / dpa / Editing by Germán & Co"I know this target came from Dresden," Belton's alleged RAF informant claimed."They were using us to disrupt, destabilize and sow chaos in the West." Belton doesn’t provide any further witnesses or evidence of a KGB background to the attack on Herrhausen in her book. In a footnote, she merely refers to the "former RAF member" she spoke to in March 2018.
By then, the story of Putin, the RAF and the secret meetings in Dresden was already circulating on the Internet, on the "Putinism" blog, for example. But in contrast to the source cited by Gessen and Belton, the alleged RAF member was named on the blog: Dietmar C.
Gessen left unanswered questions from DER SPIEGEL as to whether the alleged RAF witness had in fact been Dietmar C. Belton stated that she would not comment in order to protect her source. She said revealing any information would be a violation of agreements made to ensure the safety of the person in question. She did, however, say that she had viewed documents that "gave credence to this person's account." But Belton did not state which documents those were.
The source of the alleged RAF-KGB connection was treated less discreetly in the biography "Vladimir V. Putin" by German journalist Thomas Fasbender, published in 2022. In it, he quotes Dietmar C. by his full name. The book states that the source now has "no reservations about revealing his identity." The book claims that the source is the same person who had spoken to Gessen and Belton.
According to Fasbender, in a meeting with Dietmar C. in August 2021, the source again described the RAF meetings with Putin in Dresden and embellished them with additional details. He also claimed that the clandestine meetings were attended not only by Putin, but also by Sergei Ivanov, who later became Russia's defense minister. In addition, he alleged that terrorists from the French group Action Directe and the head of the Dresden Stasi district administration, Major General Horst Böhm, had also been present at times. And that Putin, who answered to the name "Vova" at the time, would sometimes"send him to fetch coffee."
Fasbender writes, however, that Dietmar C. had never been a member of the RAF, instead merely offering the group occasional assistance - as a French interpreter, for example. Readers don't have to believe Dietmar C.'s account, the author writes, but his story is "no less plausible than others."
Asked by DER SPIEGEL about the credibility of his source, Fasbender says that Dietmar C. "did not give the impression of being a storyteller or an impostor." However, this does not mean that "every statement he makes should be taken at face value."
Whereas Fasbender describes Dietmar C. as a "man with a left-wing radical past and a colorful life in the haze of terrorism" and the secret services, the German security authorities have no knowledge of the man's connections to the RAF, the KGB or the Stasi. Reporting conducted by DER SPIEGEL found that neither the Federal Prosecutor's Office, which is responsible for terror investigations, nor the counterintelligence unit of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, nor the Stasi archives have obtained any such information.
The last head of the Stasi Department XXII/8, which was responsible for surveilling the RAF on the orders of Minister for State Security Erich Mielke, also told DER SPIEGEL that he had never heard of the man.
Dietmar C.'s name is more familiar to the West German judiciary. Starting in the 1970s, he criminal record consistently grew, including crimes such as embezzlement, theft, coercion and violations of the Weapons Act. He served multiple prison sentences, and as recently as 2017, a Bavarian district court sentenced him to a fine for assault. According to the verdict, his federal criminal record contained "12 entries" at the time.
In addition to his criminal career, Dietmar C. also liked to share spectacular stories – often putting himself in the leading role. For example, he once told the investigative journalist Jürgen Roth a completely different version of his biography. In contrast to the story he told Fasbender, according to which Dietmar C. was a member of an anarchist "fighting association" in southern Germany in the early 1970s, where he allegedly came into contact with the RAF, he apparently told Roth that, "in the early 1970s," he had fought as a "mercenary" in Africa, in what was then Rhodesia.
In fact, according to a once close companion, Dietmar C. didn't fight for the RAF or in Rhodesia at the time – but served in Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr. He reportedly trained as a medic, stole equipment and deserted. The District Court in Marburg, Germany, in fact, convicted Dietmar C. of desertion in December 1972.
A few months later, in May 1973, the then-21-year-old was on trial again. As his former acquaintance told DER SPIEGEL, Dietmar C. belonged to a hippie group in Saarland that dreamed of emigrating to Canada and founding a rural commune. They planned to obtain the necessary money by robbing banks, but the group got caught. A juvenile court in Saarbrücken sentenced Dietmar C. to three years in juvenile detention.
Dietmar C. Also Claims To Have Met Osama Bin Laden
There's also another story where the facts don't quite match up with the timeline. According to Jürgen Roth's 2016 book "Schmutzige Demokratie" (Dirty Democracy), at the beginning of the 1980s, Dietmar C. spent "several years in Afghanistan" supporting the mujahedeen "in the fight against the Soviet troops." The book states that the man from Saarland had also met "several times" with Osama bin Laden, whom he had experienced as a very "calm personality."
The files tell a different story: Rather than having fought for "several years" in Afghanistan, Dietmar C. served another prison sentence in Germany in the early 1980s. According to the former acquaintance, Dietmar C. and an accomplice robbed a bank in Konz in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate in December 1980. In September 1981, the Trier Regional Court sentenced C. to six and a half years in prison for predatory extortion. He landed another entry in his criminal record in October 1987 for "negligent driving without a license."
According to the files, Dietmar C. spent much of the 1980s in custody or under the watchful eye of the police, judiciary and parole supervisors. Just how he managed to find time for the Afghan mujahedeen, KGB agents and RAF terrorists in between remains his secret. An order of summary punishment issued by judicial officials in the city of Mönchengladbach also raise doubts about his credibility. He was slapped with a suspended sentence there in May 1995 for giving false testimony.
Shortly thereafter, in 1996, Dietmar C. hit the headlines as the suspected supplier of a hand grenade found at the scene of the kidnapping of Hamburg millionaire Jan Philipp Reemtsma. He was later arrested in Hungary on other charges and sentenced to a total term of imprisonment of 11 years for illegal explosives trafficking and aiding and abetting counterfeiting, among other infractions.
A Known Neo-Nazi in the Service of the KGB?
C. was extradited to Germany and has been living for the past several years in Bavaria. Today, he is a member of the board of directors of an association he founded himself, for which he works as a "legal adviser." In the official registry files, he does business under the name "Dr. Dietmar C."
It remains unclear how Dietmar C. might have obtained his academic title – he left written questions from DER SPIEGEL about all the events unanswered. When contacted by telephone, he admitted that he spoke with Masha Gessen, but not, he claimed, about trips to East Germany by the RAF. When asked if he had spoken to Catherine Belton about Putin’s time in Dresden, he replied: "About Putin in Dresden? No." Then about what? "I don't want to say anything about that. Ms. Belton should explain." He also claimed never to have spoken to the journalist Fasbender about the RAF taking trips to East Germany. Dietmar C. claimed to have no recollection of his written authorization for the book passages in question and the permission to mention his name, which DER SPIEGEL has obtained. He also said he didn't want to comment on the question of whether he himself had been with Putin in Dresden. Dietmar C. did, however, attach great importance to one thing: That he "at no time was a member of the RAF."
The supposed Dresden connection between the RAF and the KGB isn’t the only narrative that captured the imagination of biographers, journalists and Putin scholars. The reports range from Putin’s purported secret spy network to a known neo-Nazi whom the KGB man is said to have handled as an informant. There is no evidence for any of these episodes in the Stasi files that have been made public so far.
The titillating stories first began circulating at the beginning of 2000, when Putin had just become Russian president and hordes of reporters went in search of clues about his past. Britain’s Sunday Times reported on a "ring of 15 agents" that Putin had allegedly built. The Sächsische Zeitung newspaper wrote that among the secret inductees was the notorious Dresden-based neo-Nazi Rainer Sonntag, who was shot dead in 1991. And in the German daily Die Welt, one could read about an East German medical doctor on whom Putin's agents allegedly wanted to plant "pornography with young girls" in order to get him to feed false data about "chemical warfare" into a computer network.
Public broadcaster ZDF and the newsweekly Focus, meanwhile, also reported on a spy network, and the Reuters news agency made the story virtually official in May 2000. The spokesman for the Stasi records office, the news agency reported at the time, confirmed that Putin had set up an agent ring of former Stasi employees in 1990 to continue working for the Soviets after the end of East Germany.
However, the statement from the agency turned out to be false. In fact, the records office wrote the next day in a little-noticed "clarification" that it had neither knowledge nor documents "on the activities of the former KGB officer Vladimir Putin in Dresden."
The journalists from various media had based their reporting primarily on the information provided by a dismissed Stasi employee named Klaus Z., who operated under pseudonyms such as "Peter Ackermann" or "Michael Mannstein."
The now 66-year-old did not have a glittering career at the Stasi. In the early 1980s, he initially worked as a low-level employee in Department XV of the Dresden district administration before being transferred to the less prestigious Department VIII in 1988. There, according to his personnel file, he dealt with "conspiratorial residential area investigations," among other things. The following year, he was transferred again and took care of "technical security" at Stasi properties.
Confessions to West German Intelligence
His superiors were ambivalent about the young lieutenant: On the one hand, he was characterized by a "high level of commitment and maximum utilization of working time," but on the other hand, he tended to get lost in the thicket of information. Because he always strives to "clarify facts down to the smallest detail," the comrade quickly loses sight of the big picture, his superiors noted.
Klaus Z. also provided a large number of details to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution after the fall of communism. Following his release from the Stasi, he traveled in frustration to Cologne during Christmas 1990 and offered his services to West German counterintelligence. At this point, a good year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the interest of the agent hunters for internal information from the Dresden Stasi field office was no longer all that pronounced. Their interest increased only when the conversation turned to the "friends" from the KGB.
Klaus Z. reported on an alcohol-filled party at the end of 1984, to which he had been taken by his wife, who was working for the East German criminal police at the time. At the party, he claims to have met a certain Georg S., who went by the nickname "Schorsch." Officially, he was with Department K1 of the Volkspolizei, the East German national police, but in reality, Klaus Z. reported, he worked mainly for the KGB.
Klaus Z. claimed to have met a Russian named "Volodya" during Stasi company sporting activities in 1985, and that they visited each other privately and went on excursions. Later, Klaus Z. claimed to have learned that "Volodya" was a contact of "Schorsch" at the KGB. Once it became clear that East Germany was soon to disintegrate, he said, they jointly considered whether Z. could henceforth work for the KGB in a conspiratorial capacity, but the plan was never implemented, he said.
Following his Cologne Christmas confession in 1990, Klaus Z. started a new life in West Germany - including a stint as a security man at public broadcaster ZDF. He fell off the radar at that point - until he surprisingly contacted his case worker at the Office for the Protection of the Constitution again in 1999. He said he had recognized "Volodya" on television, the Soviet intelligence man he had once met in Dresden. The person in question was none other than the recently appointed Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
KGB officer Putin's access badge for the Stasi officesImage: Stasi-Unterlagen-ArchivHe claimed the he had played sports and went on excursions with him during that time in Dresden. He said that the last time he had met Putin was in January 1990, in his apartment, together with another KGB man. He said he spontaneously pulled out some paper from the cupboard himself and wrote a handwritten declaration of commitment to the KGB. But no one ever responded to it, he said.
In order to find out more details about Putin's KGB past, Klaus Z. was apparently supposed to try to reactivate his old contacts with "Schorsch," who in the meantime was working as a private detective in Dresden. The operation ended in a fiasco. Klaus Z. shared his knowledge about "Volodya" not only with the Cologne counterintelligence, but also with various media, which then spun the information he fed them into juicy stories.
ZDF, for example, had Klaus Z. reenact a scene in which he signs a self-written declaration of allegiance to Putin. The newsmagazine Focus presented him as a top source of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, which it reported had uncovered no less than"15 German scouts in Moscow's service" – and seemed almost clairvoyant when reporting: "We haven’t heard the last from Putin."
Today, Klaus Z. lives as a pensioner in a communist-era building in a rural part of the eastern state of Saxony. When contacted by DER SPIEGEL, he proposed meeting in a "Greek national restaurant with a convivial meeting atmosphere." There, he was happy to discuss DER SPIEGEL's questions.
During the more than three-hour interview, he admits that much of the information about Putin that various media have attributed to him over the years was not based on his own experience at all. He says he researched some connections afterwards, with the help of newspaper reports, for example, and that he "combined" others on the basis of statements by "Schorsch" or other former colleagues.
An Alleged Blackmail Attempt
Moreover, much is based on pure conjecture, such as the story about the toxic substance researcher's alleged blackmail attempt: "Schorsch" had only made "rudimentary" allusions to this, Klaus Z. now says, adding that he subsequently combined the account with other information. Through research in a chronicle of the Medical Academy of Dresden, he ultimately came across a professor with whom "Schorsch's" information might fit. However, Klaus Z. did not know whether the man was actually involved with chemical warfare agents, if he was to be blackmailed by the KGB or whether Putin had anything to do with it. It’s no longer possible to contact "Schorsch." He died in 2010
Similar to the story about the toxic substance researcher is the matter of Putin's purported 15-agent spy cell. According to Klaus Z., he had also learned about this through hints from "Schorsch" at a party in a beer tent in Dresden shortly before the fall of the Wall. He had spoken of "troops" in other districts in East Germany. Z. understood "Schorsch" as meaning covert KGB colleagues. He says he knew that there were five agents working in "Schorsch's" Dresden KGB group and had simply extrapolated the number.
The allegation disseminated by some media that the Dresden-based neo-Nazi Rainer Sonntag spied for Putin's KGB network is also based on a bold interpretation of Klaus Z.'s statements. Sonntag moved in the criminal circles during East German times and served time and again in prison between 1972 and 1981, including for theft and for plans to escape to the West. In November 1985, he was deported to West Germany, where he worked in Frankfurt's red-light district and joined the far-right scene. After the fall of the Wall, Sonntag returned to Dresden and got into a fight in the local red-light district. In 1991, a pimp shot him to death.
At the time, "Schorsch" confided in him, Klaus Z. now says, that Sonntag had once worked for him as a police informer. Z. says he then conducted elaborate research on his own before drawing up a "time line." However, to deduce from this that Sonntag worked for the KGB or for Putin requires an active imagination. According to Stasi documentation, Sonntag was only considered a "candidate" for an informant position as an "unofficial criminal police employee" at the end of the 1970s, without success. Because of "deconspiracy," meaning the candidate had somehow deliberately or inadvertently revealed his connection to the secret police, the recruitment was broken off. There are no references in the file to connections with "Schorsch" or with the KGB.
Few Stasi documents exist about Putin himself. Among the few papers in which his name appears is a letter from 1989 in which he, representing the KGB liaison officer actually in charge, asks the Dresden Stasi chief for help. The letter references a KGB informant named Gerhard B., whose phone had been cut off. The former captain of the East German criminal police was considered a security risk because of drunkenness and debts and had been removed from service. Putin now asked the Stasi on behalf of his boss to unblock the man's telephone line, because he continued to provide support to the KGB.
A request letter from the KGB to the Stasi, signed by Vladimir Putin "on behalf" of the actual liaison officer (from September 1989)Image: Stasi-Unterlagen-Archiv / Editing by Germán & CoThe role of supplicant for a washed-up informer doesn't quite fit the image of a top spy. But it probably describes Putin's everyday life in the Dresden KGB station more aptly than the stories about terrorists and secret weapons caches.
In fact, things were far less glamorous in the Saxony KGB station than some non-fiction books claim. In one of the office's duties, Putin was quite familiar from his time as a secret service agent in Leningrad: the suppression of the opposition. As late as October 1989, Putin's superior, Major General Vladimir Shirokov, turned a student at Dresden Technical University in to the Stasi. "By means of the printer in his possession," the young man had duplicated an appeal from the democracy movement "New Forum" and distributed it among the students.
A few weeks later, the Wall fell and the communist Socialist Unity Party (SED) regime was history. On the evening of December 5, 1989, civil rights activists marched in front of the KGB station in Dresden's Angelika Strasse, where they came face to face with Soviet soldiers who were tasked with securing the area.
The scene provided the backdrop for the final myth about Putin's time in East Germany: According to one version, he heroically confronted the demonstrators, with a determined look and armed soldiers at his side. According to another version, a small man was standing at the entrance of the nearby Stasi headquarters, watching the spectacle from a safe distance.
Whether Putin was even there at the time cannot be proven.
Special Edition: "The Covert Conflict on Lithium: An Examination of the Other Hidden War" News round-up, June 8, 2023
"The Covert Conflict on Lithium: An Examination of the Other Hidden War"
It is imperative to emphasize that a covert competition for supremacy in the lithium market is underway, with the Chinese government consolidating its authority over global extraction. (1) Of significant importance, China has commenced lithium concentration operations in Zimbabwe, Africa, by establishing a facility that includes a mine in proximity. Furthermore, Chinese corporations are engaged in similar initiatives in Namibia, Mali, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (2) Tianqi Lithium, a Chinese corporation, has made a substantial investment in the largest producer of lithium mineral concentrate globally, located in Australia. The investment being made carries significant implications for the global lithium market, highlighting the growing importance of lithium as a critical resource for the energy sector. The following statement elucidates the ownership framework of a joint venture within the lithium mining sector. Notably, Ganfeng Lithium, a Chinese enterprise, exercises control over a joint venture that possesses a 50% interest in the second-largest lithium ore mining site in Western Australia. (3)
The South American region, commonly called the "lithium triangle," comprising Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, has garnered the interest of Chinese stakeholders owing to its substantial concentration of economically feasible lithium reserves, which constitute almost 50% of the global total (4). This region's significance in the global lithium market has made it a focal point for various international players, including China, seeking to secure a reliable supply of this critical resource. It is worth noting that the European Union is heavily dependent on this region to meet its lithium requirements (5)
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WSJ, TODAY
The Global Competition for Raw MaterialsEurope at Risk of Losing the Lithium Race
Without lithium, copper and rare earths, our mobile phones, electric cars and wind turbines wouldn't function. Currently we are almost exclusively dependent on China for these critical raw materials. But there might be a way out.
Spiegel By Simon Book, Michael Brächer, Christoph Giesen, Simon Hage, Claus Hecking, Martin Hesse, Stefan Schultz and Gerald Traufetter, June 8, 2023UK says it spent nearly 40 billion pounds on power subsidies
According to the business ministry, businesses and other organizations have received around 5.5 billion pounds through the Energy Bill Relief Scheme. Additionally, almost 1 billion pounds have been allocated to other programmes. However, the cost of these subsidies has contributed to the increase in Britain's public borrowing since their launch in October.
Reuters, June 8, 2023Taiwan activates air defence as China aircraft enter zone
The government of Taiwan has reported Chinese air force flights near Taiwan, a territory claimed by China and known as "The Land of Chiang Kai-shek." This raises concerns about security risks and territorial disputes between the two nations.
Reuters, June 8, 2023 / Editing by Germán & CoImage credit: SPIEGEL / Editing by Germán & Co"The Covert Conflict on Lithium: An Examination of the Other Hidden War"
It is imperative to emphasize that a covert competition for supremacy in the lithium market is underway, with the Chinese government consolidating its authority over global extraction. (1) Of significant importance, China has commenced lithium concentration operations in Zimbabwe, Africa, by establishing a facility that includes a mine in proximity. Furthermore, Chinese corporations are engaged in similar initiatives in Namibia, Mali, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (2) Tianqi Lithium, a Chinese corporation, has made a substantial investment in the largest producer of lithium mineral concentrate globally, located in Australia. The investment being made carries significant implications for the global lithium market, highlighting the growing importance of lithium as a critical resource for the energy sector. The following statement elucidates the ownership framework of a joint venture within the lithium mining sector. Notably, Ganfeng Lithium, a Chinese enterprise, exercises control over a joint venture that possesses a 50% interest in the second-largest lithium ore mining site in Western Australia. (3)
The South American region, commonly called the "lithium triangle," comprising Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, has garnered the interest of Chinese stakeholders owing to its substantial concentration of economically feasible lithium reserves, which constitute almost 50% of the global total (4). This region's significance in the global lithium market has made it a focal point for various international players, including China, seeking to secure a reliable supply of this critical resource. It is worth noting that the European Union is heavily dependent on this region to meet its lithium requirements (5)
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Beaming Solar Energy From Space Gets a Step Closer
Scientists are testing how satellites could collect power from the sun and send clean electricity to Earth—and getting encouraging results
In this age of wireless everything, engineers are trying to perform the ultimate act of cord-cutting: generating abundant solar electricity in space and beaming it to the ground, no power cables required.
Spiegel By Corey S. Powell | Photographs by Francesca Forquet for The Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2023 The Global Competition for Raw Materials, Europe at Risk of Losing the Lithium Race
Without lithium, copper and rare earths, our mobile phones, electric cars and wind turbines wouldn't function. Currently we are almost exclusively dependent on China for these critical raw materials. But there might be a way out.
Spiegel By Simon Book, Michael Brächer, Christoph Giesen, Simon Hage, Claus Hecking, Martin Hesse, Stefan Schultz and Gerald Traufetter, June 8, 2023UK says it spent nearly 40 billion pounds on power subsidies
According to the business ministry, businesses and other organizations have received around 5.5 billion pounds through the Energy Bill Relief Scheme. Additionally, almost 1 billion pounds have been allocated to other programmes. However, the cost of these subsidies has contributed to the increase in Britain's public borrowing since their launch in October.
Reuters, June 8, 2023Taiwan activates air defence as China aircraft enter zone
The government of Taiwan has reported Chinese air force flights near Taiwan, a territory claimed by China and known as "The Land of Chiang Kai-shek." This raises concerns about security risks and territorial disputes between the two nations.
Reuters, June 8, 2023 / Editing by Germán & CoThe AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image credit: A prototype of the lightweight, flexible microwave transmitter array that is now being tested in orbit aboard Caltech’s Space Solar Power Demonstrator.Beaming Solar Energy From Space Gets a Step Closer
Scientists are testing how satellites could collect power from the sun and send clean electricity to Earth—and getting encouraging results
In this age of wireless everything, engineers are trying to perform the ultimate act of cord-cutting: generating abundant solar electricity in space and beaming it to the ground, no power cables required.
Spiegel By Corey S. Powell | Photographs by Francesca Forquet for The Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2023 More than half a century ago, an article titled “Power from the Sun” in the journal Science spelled out the rationale for this high-wireless act. Above Earth’s atmosphere, sunshine is never interrupted by cloudy skies, and there is no day or night. Satellites collecting solar power could theoretically operate around the clock, dispatching emission-free electricity wherever it’s needed, anywhere on Earth. But the concept was long dismissed as too complicated and expensive.
Now it is finally being put to the test.
On Jan. 3, a team at Caltech launched the Space Solar Power Demonstrator, an orbiting suite of experiments to test key components for space-based solar power. It switched on in May and has begun sending back encouraging early results. “People are realizing this isn’t just science fiction,” says Ali Hajimiri, an electrical engineer at Caltech and one of the project leaders on the demonstrator. “There may be a pathway to make this reality.”
Ali Hajimiri, an electrical engineer at Caltech and one of the project leaders on the Space Solar Power Demonstrator, stands between two generations of microwave-beaming technology: the original rigid design, right, and the newer, lightweight, flexible version, left.Other related efforts are also gaining momentum. The European Space Agency is drawing up a blueprint for a possible European space-solar network. The China Academy of Space Technology has announced plans for a power-beaming satellite prototype by 2028. And military labs in the U.S. are experimenting with tech that could someday transmit space-based power to remote bases or combat zones.
One of the central challenges for all of these projects is finding a safe, efficient and reliable way to transmit gigawatts of power to the ground and then convert it into electricity that people can use. Microwave beams are the favored technique, in large part because they can travel freely through the air regardless of weather. While similar to those used in microwave ovens, these beams would be nowhere near as concentrated. A recent study by the European Commission found that the incoming microwave beams would be too feeble and diffuse to harm human health. Some involved in these projects say further thorough research will be needed for public acceptance, though.
How to Beam Power From Space
Engineers have long hoped to harvest clean, affordable solar power in orbit and send it down to Earth. A group at Caltech is now testing ultra-light structures and flexible electronics that could finally make the idea practical. Here's how it would work:
Source: CaltechJemal R. Brinson/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL“It’s basically the same technology as wireless charging for your cellphone,” says Chris Rodenbeck, head of the Advanced Projects Group at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C. In 2021, Rodenbeck and his collaborators sent a 1.6-kilowatt beam of microwaves (also similar to those used for Wi-Fi signals, but at a higher frequency) from a transmitter to a receiver two-thirds of a mile away at the U.S. Army Research Field in Blossom Point, Md. The researchers said they used microwaves because they travel freely through the air, unaffected by weather. Nobody has yet pulled off an equivalent feat from orbit, however.
The NRL has been experimenting with beaming technology in space using a device the size of a bread loaf called the photovoltaic radiofrequency antenna module, or PRAM. It flew aboard the U.S. Air Force’s X-37B space plane and effectively converted sunshine into microwaves—but didn’t actually direct the waves anywhere—before returning to Earth last year. Rodenbeck is working on a follow-on project, Arachne, run by the Air Force Research Laboratory in Dayton, Ohio. Arachne is designed to tackle the more challenging task of transmitting power from orbit to a station on the ground. It is scheduled for a 2025 launch.
Chris DePuma of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory monitors the performance of the photovoltaic radiofrequency antenna module, or PRAM. It recently flew aboard the X-37B space plane, running experiments on efficient ways to convert solar electricity into microwaves. PHOTO: JONATHAN STEFFEN/U.S. NAVYThe Caltech team is attempting to accelerate this process by testing multiple, potentially lower-cost technologies at once, with funding from billionaire real-estate developer and philanthropist Donald Bren, chairman and owner of Irvine Company. Many years ago, he was captivated by an article in Popular Science magazine about harvesting solar energy in space. “I’ve dreamed about how space-based solar power could solve some of humanity’s most urgent challenges,” he says. His donation of more than $100 million to Caltech over the past decade supported the creation of the Space Solar Power Demonstrator, the suite of technology tests that launched in January attached to a commercial satellite.
One of the key components on the Caltech demonstrator is a prototype power-beamer called Maple, short for Microwave Array for Power-transfer Low-orbit Experiment. It has generated microwaves and steered them from one part of the satellite to another, lighting up two test LEDs, Hajimiri says. The distance traveled is small, about a foot, but it is the first documented demonstration of power-beaming in space. The device also directed microwaves toward Earth, which were picked up by Caltech’s detectors on the ground.
Maple has a novel modular design that would combine a solar-energy collector and a transmitter into a single, self-contained unit. That approach could help address one of the most daunting obstacles to building solar-power satellites—their shocking size requirements. To match the output of a midsize power plant on Earth, a solar satellite would need at least 1 square mile of light-collecting area.
Image credit: Crushed rare earth rocks: Europe remains extremely dependent on China.
Foto: Roger Kisby / DER SPIEGELThe Global Competition for Raw MaterialsEurope at Risk of Losing the Lithium Race
Without lithium, copper and rare earths, our mobile phones, electric cars and wind turbines wouldn't function. Currently we are almost exclusively dependent on China for these critical raw materials. But there might be a way out.
Spiegel By Simon Book, Michael Brächer, Christoph Giesen, Simon Hage, Claus Hecking, Martin Hesse, Stefan Schultz and Gerald Traufetter, June 8, 2023Europe’s future smells like scorched metal. Sparks are flying, workers wearing protective goggles cut with unwavering focus through metal pipes. Here in the industrial park in Bitterfeld-Wolfen, just north of Leipzig, where AGFA once developed the first functioning color film in the world, a new German industrial miracle is taking shape: Europe’s first lithium refinery.
The man hoping to realize the project is named Dr. Heinz C. Schimmelbusch, a 78-year-old known lovingly as "Schibu” in the world of raw materials. Schimmelbusch is far from being an unknown: He is the former director of the legendary German industrial conglomerate Metallgesellschaft, once one of the country’s largest. Born in Vienna, he has bright blue eyes, carefully parted hair and a larger-than-life ego to match his reputation. The executive, whose career had actually seemed to come to an end 30 years ago, wants to build a final monument to himself with this latest project. And already, his refinery is being viewed as a key piece in Germany’s economic puzzle going forward.
Schibu’s company, called Advanced Metallurgical Group, or AMG for short, hopes to begin producing lithium hydroxide this year. It is the stuff that ecological dreams are made of, a metallic salt that is necessary for car batteries, wind turbines and solar facilities, the key to electromobility. The United Nations calls it "a pillar for a fossil fuel-free economy.” Approximately 10 kilograms of the stuff can be found in the battery of an electric SUV, such as BMW’s iX.
Image credit: Heinz C. Schimmelbusch: "We have to act now. Otherwise, we’ll run out of time."Foto: Salome Roessler / DER SPIEGELSoon, Schimmelbusch is hoping to refine 20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide per year in Bitterfeld, enough for half a million electric cars. Within just a few years, the plan calls for the total to increase to 100,000 tons annually. The raw material necessary is to initially come from Schimmelbusch’s own mine in Brazil, but might one day even be sourced from mines in Germany itself. The executive is currently investing hundreds of millions of euros to make that happen. "We have to act now. Otherwise, we’ll run out of time,” he says.
Reliable supplies of the raw materials necessary for the economy of the future is currently one of the most important challenges facing the global economy. Whether at the industry’s premier trade fare Hannover Messe, in European Parliament, at company headquarters or in lobbying discussion in Berlin, everyone sees the accelerating exploitation of metals, ores and minerals as inescapable for the salvation of the planet – for clean energy and the transportation revolution. Millions of jobs, fighting climate change, Germany’s future geopolitical independence: All that hinges on the availability of lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite – and on rare earths like neodymium and praseodymium.
Image credit. AMG factory under construction in Bitterfeld, part of Germany's effort to catch up.Foto: Thomas Victor / DER SPIEGEL"The race for the raw materials is also a race for our future prosperity,” says Peter Buchholz, head of the German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA), a state-run informational and consultancy platform.
Were the global competition for raw materials a horse race, the odds would currently favor China. No country is home to larger mineral deposits and no country has been more active, more successful and more ruthless in exploiting them. The European Union Intelligence and Situation Center (INTCEN) recently warned that Beijing could seek to take advantage of its market position on batteries and solar cells. The European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) has noted that China is increasingly turning to "economic coercion” as an instrument of geopolitical power.
As if a reminder were needed, Beijing recently targeted the American semiconductor manufacturer Micron, issuing a warning against using the company’s chips. Officially, the Chinese cited security concerns, but experts believe it was a response to U.S. sanctions.
Buchholz describes the current situation as a "systemic competition,” and says it is long past time for German companies to finally invest significant amounts of money into guaranteeing future supplies of raw materials. Instead of simply buying what they need on global markets, Buchholz says they must invest in exploitation and refinement, including buying ownership stakes in mines. "The best projects are currently being divvied up,” Buchholz says, and competitors from China are already in position. If the Germans don’t hurry, the DERA analyst says, the best deposits will all be gone.
Image credit: A worker at a raw materials factory in the Antofagasta, Chile. The raw materials industry is far from clean.Foto: Marcos Zegers / The New York Times / Redux / laif/Editing by Germán & CoThe fact that Schimmelbusch, approaching his 80th birthday, has had to jump into the breach says a lot about the failure of German industry. For many years, senior German executives showed little interest in the issue of critical natural resources, with vital corporations like Siemens, BMW, Daimler, Thyssen and BASF largely unconcerned. The world, says one chemical industry executive, "was free, the markets were open, and prices were low.” Why bother devoting valuable capital to company-owned raw materials storage facilities? Why take the risk of exploiting resources oneself? Why take direct responsibility for environmental degradation and for provoking the anger of locals? Indeed, why submit to all that stress when the model of just-in-time purchases, mostly from China, was working just fine? "It was a huge advantage for use,” the chemical industry executive says. "We didn’t have to deal with the environmental mess and were able to receive quality products at reasonable prices.”
Periodic price fluctuations did little to change that approach – particularly since things were going rather well for the Germans, aside from a few shortages that were likely provoked by Beijing.
But the supply-chain breakdowns produced by the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s more aggressive stance toward Taiwan have combined to cast doubt on age-old assumptions that raw materials will always be accessible from somewhere. China has become far too irreplaceable, far too powerful as a supplier.
The European Commission now admits that Europe is "heavily dependent” on raw materials from China, leading to a "vulnerability” in the EU economy. Depending on the material, a maximum of 7 percent of European demand is met by production facilities in Europe. In other words, in the best case, 93 percent of demand for the vitally important metals must be met through imports – and 100 percent in the worst case.
Source: European Commission 2023, high demand scenario (HDS)And the West’s vulnerability is growing every day. According to the European Commission, the demand for lithium for batteries alone will increase to 90 times the current level by 2050, and the demand for cobalt will increase to 15 times the current level. The U.S. government already expects interest in such critical materials to increase by up to 600 percent by 2030.
Europe's demand for rare earth elements like neodymium is expected to be five to six times higher by the end of the decade than it was at the beginning, Brussels believes.
…“China may not be the world’s leader when it comes to extracting neodymium …
… but it does process the most globally … / … and is thus the main supplier to the EU.
Concerns have become so great that raw material supplies were a major focus of the recent G-7 summit in Japan. Though the heads of state and government were unable to agree on the establishment of a "Critical Raw Materials Club,” as the European Commission had recently proposed, a five-point plan was devised for the identification and exploitation of sources for critical metals and minerals.
"We want to change the situation,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said recently at the opening of the Hannover Messe. But how?
China – Domination Everywhere
Our destination is Bayan Obo, a once sacred place, the name of which means "rich mountain.” These days, though, the area has little to do with the spirituality of untouched nature. Rather, it is home to the largest rare earths mine in the world. The minerals have been exploited here, on the outermost fringe of China just before the Mongolian border, since 1958, and the site is home to at least a third of the world’s reserves. It is also one of very few mines in the world where all 17 of the coveted metals can be found in the rock belowground. Between 70 and 80 percent of the amount produced by China comes from here – equating to more than half of global production.
The drive to the mine leads along well-constructed roads through hills and past fields where sheep and cattle are grazing. But the landscape grows more austere the closer one gets to the mine. Mining companies have completely dug up the region, felling all the trees. Cranes and earthmovers are everywhere, as are the cars belong to state security. First three, then four and finally five dark-colored VW sedans with tinted windows begin following our taxi.
The road is blocked precisely 10 kilometers from the mine, with a police van parked across the traffic lanes. A uniformed officer blows vigorously into his whistle before then yelling so loud that it is audible through the closed windows: "Turn around!”
There is a second approach to the mine as well, requiring a detour of several hours through the scraggy landscape. Shortly before sundown, the second roadblock comes into view. Again, an official state security vehicle is present. And again, all cars are sent away.
"The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths."
Deng Xiaoping, Chinese leader, 1992
There are many reasons for why China is making its best-known export into a state secret. The raw materials business is rather filthy. Dynamite and heavy machinery is used to extract elements out of the earth or rock that have been there for millions of years. It must be blasted to bits, pulled to the surface and washed, a process that requires vast amounts of energy and water – and sometimes also releases radioactivity.
In Western countries, strict environmental regulations govern such operations, sometimes making them unprofitable. In China, by contrast, market leadership is the goal, and the environment is a secondary consideration, if it even enters the equation at all.
In Baotou, located 150 kilometers south of the mine, the material pulled out of the ground is processed, with the waste produced by the refinery dumped into the lake next door. Officials have built a two-meter high, concrete wall – several kilometers long – around the cesspool and nobody is allowed close to the water. Immersion would likely be deadly.
Baotou is essentially the global capital of raw materials, and the lake has turned into a tailings pond for 40, perhaps even 50, industrial operations that have set up shop in the region to process the metals. They have names like China North Rare Earth, Baotou Jinmeng Rare Earth and Baotou Dapeng Metal. Hundreds of factory chimneys just into the sky, beneath which extremely toxic chemicals are used to separate the 17 coveted rare earths from each other. From the lake, the toxic soup seeps into the groundwater, and likely also into the nearby Yellow River, one of the most important waterways in China, the basin of which is home to more than 100 million people.
The cancer rate in towns located along the lakeshore is high. Almost every family here, say residents, has lost at least one member to cancer. The tap water that comes out of the faucet in a restaurant next to the lake shimmers, with metal residuals visible to the naked eye. Locals say that they used to boil the water and then drink it, and some elderly residents still do so, though younger people who live in the region have come to understand that doing so does not lessen the amount of metal residue the water contains. Factories have also pumped fluoride-laden water into the lake, which can make bones brittle and leads to abnormal teeth growth.
Of the 51 raw materials that the EU now categorizes as strategically important or critical for Europe's supply ...
Source: European Commission... 24 are primarily extracted in China, which is also the main processor for 33 out of the 51 raw materials. For heavy rare earth elements, which are essential for numerous modern technologies, there is currently not a single processing facility outside of China.
It was Deng Xiaoping, who led China from 1978 to 1989, who launched China on a path to becoming the world leader in raw materials. "The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths,” he said in 1992. The difference, however, is that while the OPEC cartel occasionally adjusts production to keep prices high, China’s rare-earths lever is incomparably larger, allowing the country to exert political influence around the world.
When Beijing 13 years ago suddenly reduced rare earth exports by 72 percent, it triggered an earthquake on the raw materials markets. For years, China had practiced aggressive price dumping to run its competitors into the ground, forcing mines in the U.S., Australia and Africa to close because they were unable to keep up with the low prices the Chinese were charging. But in the second half of 2010, the country’s leadership ordered that instead of the normal export total of 28,000 tons, only half be sent abroad. Officially due to environmental concerns.
The German government, then under the leadership of Christian Democrat Angela Merkel in coalition with the business-friendly Free Democrats, produced its first raw materials strategy in response – which was never really implemented, in part because China quickly returned to its more liberal export policy. But the lesson from that episode should have been: China won’t shy away from leveraging its raw materials to promote its interests.
And the country’s goal of dominating the world market has long since expanded far beyond national borders…
Currently, Beijing is gaining dominance in global lithium extraction. A few weeks ago, a Chinese facility for lithium concentration with an attached mine began operations in Zimbabwe, Africa. Chinese companies are also involved in similar projects in Namibia, Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In Australia, the Chinese corporation Tianqi Lithium has invested in the world's largest producer of lithium mineral concentrates. And the second-largest lithium ore mining site in the world, located in Western Australia, is controlled by a joint venture in which the Chinese company Ganfeng Lithium holds a 50-percent stake.
The Chinese are almost hyperactive in South America's lithium triangle: Argentina, Bolivia and Chile. The countries are home to the greatest reserves of the raw material.
Almost 50 percent of the world's commercially exploitable reserves – and more than half of the deposits of this key metal discovered to date – are located in the salt flats of the Andes region and under the soil of these three countries. The EU covers its lithium demands almost exclusively from this region.
One of the few who is attempting to stand up to Beijing’s market domination is Schimmelbusch. Right in the middle of the verdant hills of the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, among the coffee plantations and cattle grazing lands, is a 180-meter-deep crater. Bulldozers and excavators are digging up the earth, while forklifts are loading up gigantic trucks with plastic bags. They contain spodumene, a mineral ground down into a white powder – and one of the primary commodities from which lithium can be extracted.
Schimmelbusch’s decision to get into the lithium business, which is now responsible for the majority of his 300-million-euro pre-tax profits, was something of a fortuity. As he was flying above his tantalum mine in Brazil in a helicopter several years ago, he looked down, he recalls, "and everything was white.” The mine workers had thrown the white, spodumene ore onto waste heaps, tailings for which they had no use. At some point, he says, "up there on the waste heaps, I decided to get involved in lithium.”
In order to turn a profit, though, he needed help from China – and it came in the form of "Doctor Li,” as Schimmelbusch calls him. Li Nanping is head of General Lithium, one of the market giants from China. Schimmelbusch says that the company immediately bought the largely unprocessed blocks of lithium ore – "and thus took on the associated risk.”
Since 2018, the AMG mine has been producing 90,000 tons of spodumene per year, a total that will be boosted to 130,000 tons starting this summer. The trucks rumble some 20 kilometers across dusty, unpaved roads, bouncing through potholes to a highway. From there, they travel a bit more than 500 kilometers to an industrial port in the state of Rio de Janeiro, where the sacks are loaded onto ships and sent to Shanghai. Once in China, the spodumene is processed into a lithium compound.
That is the cheapest route. But Schimmelbusch’s clients like Mercedes are increasingly prepared to pay a bit more if it means greater supply security. As soon as Schimmelbusch’s facility in Bitterfeld is finished, the ore from Brazil will all be sent to Germany for processing, leaving China out of the equation.
U.S. – Standing Up to China
For now, U.S. President Joe Biden is still in a good mood. "I am impressed. Thank you for not canceling on us,” California Governor Gavin Newsom says into the camera. "Are you kidding me?” Biden fires back. "We don’t have much going on, you know, other than Russia and Ukraine.” It’s February 22, 2022, two days before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and the president is hosting politicians and industry representatives for a virtual round table to discuss critical raw materials.
The issue is tops on Washington’s priority list. In order to build a truly strong economy, says Biden, "we need a future that’s made in America.” He says that he would like to see entire supply chains for numerous products brought back to the country, including the raw materials that go into them. Mobile phones, kitchen appliances, electric vehicles: "Without these minerals, they can’t function.”
To achieve that goal, Biden says it is necessary to invest taxpayer money in domestic industry, and during the virtual meeting, he announces the first such expenditure: The company MP Materials is to receive $35 million to build the first and only refinery for heavy rare earth elements in the U.S. "This is not anti-China … it’s pro-America.”
The border between California and Nevada is home to an austere landscape of red rock that makes up the Mojave National Preserve. Deep inside the park is Mountain Pass Mine. Aside from a few desert tortoises and stray campers, though, nobody is particularly disturbed by the din coming from the mine’s outsized machinery. Once or twice a week is "blast day” at Mountain Pass, when explosives are detonated in the red rock inside the crater. The chunks produced by the blasts are then brought to the surface by gigantic dump trucks and emptied into the crusher: Large boulders are broken up into smaller rocks, the rocks are turned into gravel and the gravel is ultimately pulverized into a powder. The mine is in operation around the clock, seven days a week.
The Mountain Pass mine has been producing rare earths for more than 70 years, but it has never been as active as it is now, says Matt Sloustcher, chief lobbyist for MP Minerals. Into the 1990s, the mine was the largest producer of rare earths in the world, says Sloustcher. But then, China took over the global industry. Now, says Sloustcher, it's time to begin taking it back.
As recently as 2015, just 6,000 tons of material per year was coming out of Mountain Pass. The mine operators only extracted those minerals that could be quickly and easily sold, with the stones being sent from the Port of Los Angeles to China for processing – never to be seen again.
Today, MP Minerals has boosted annual production almost eight-fold, increasing staff from eight to 550 and investing a billion dollars in order to bring the entire value chain back to the U.S. From mining to rare-earth refinement to magnet production, everything is to take place on the North American continent.
Image credit: The MP Materials mine at Mountain Pass.Foto: Roger Kisby / DER SPIEGEL / Editing by Germán & CoA finishing facility was built right next to the mine, producing highly purified light rare earth elements. The green and purple shimmering liquids are to be sent from here to Texas, where they will be transformed into the magnets required by every electric motor. Mountain Pass expects that by the end of the year, it will receive the required certification to process heavy rare earth elements at the site as well – making it the only such facility in the entire Western hemisphere.
MP Minerals is particularly proud of its "environmentally conscious” processes. The water used in processing, says Sloustcher, is recycled and reused. There are no polluted lakes of the kind seen in Baotou. The mine, says Ryan Corbett, the chief financial officer of MP Minerals, is proof that the valuable raw materials can be produced in the West as well. The company, he says, is able to earn money in a competitive market while adhering to Western values and laws in an environmental and sustainable fashion.
But the Americans are paying an extremely high price for their independence. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) comes at a cost of $500 billion. The program is designed to put the U.S. on the path toward a "green economy,” and to push China out wherever possible. If they want to benefit from tax relief, companies are required to procure their raw materials from domestic deposits or allied countries wherever possible.
One example is the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles, which came into effect in mid-April. It requires carmakers to source 40 percent of the critical minerals they need for their batteries either from the U.S. or from countries linked to the U.S. through a free-trade agreement. That level is to climb to 80 percent by 2027. Furthermore, half of battery components must be assembled in North America, a share that will rise to 100 percent by 2029.
"There is an incredible race currently underway for the best deposits around the world."
Jonathan Evans, CEO of Lithium AmericasCorporate America is responding. From General Electric to General Motors, large and small industrial companies in the U.S. are investing billions in mines, refineries and battery factories. New projects are under development across the continent for lithium, copper, nickel and rare earths. The raw materials industry is experiencing a regular gold rush. Since the IRA entered force, more than $60 billion have been invested in more than 130 projects. Automaker GM, for example, has reserved the majority of the production from MP Minerals for itself in addition to sinking $650 million into production as well, through an investment in Lithium Americas, located near Winnemucca, Nevada. For the next 10 years, GM will be purchasing the entirety of the relatively young company’s production, with an option for extending the deal by another five years.
There is an incredible race currently underway for the best deposits around the world, says the CEO of Lithium Americas, Jonathan Evans, who used to work for Bayer in Düsseldorf. Every carmaker currently needs lithium, he says, since they are all jumping into the electric vehicle production. The market, he says, is unbelievably "tight,” and prices are rising.
Separating from China, Evans believes, will mean five to 10 "bumpy years” for the West. But, he points out, it was no different with the interstate highway system in the U.S.: It took 35 years for President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s plan to become reality. Getting started in the important thing, he says, something that Europe needs to do quickly if it doesn't want to fall hopelessly behind. All the technology and mining know-how, he says, once came from the Old Continent. China then made it big. Now, he says, it's time to turn things around again.
Europe – The Blame Game
Germany's response to this impressive business savvy receives her guest in a slightly rundown office on the outskirts of Dresden. Franziska Lederer of the Helmholtz Institute for Resource Technology is hoping to help solve Germany's raw material problems – with the help of viruses. Between flasks and vials, crucibles and cans of powder, the scientist explains her process for extracting rare earths from old compact fluorescent lights. In a completely environmentally friendly way, without the use of chemicals.
To make that happen, Lederer uses the bacteriophage M13, a virus that exclusively infects bacteria – and, oddly enough, also likes metals. In Lederer's lab, the virus is currently devouring the rare earths lanthanum, cerium, terbium, europium and yttrium, which are in the luminescent powder of the discarded light bulbs.
The bacteriophages can be stapled onto microscopic magnets. Lederer uses them to "fish" the rare earths out of the luminescent powder in a procedure known as "biofishing." It's a method that also works for lithium and cobalt, which are found in old electric car batteries. The method can even be used to extract gallium, the metal from the service water of solar companies.
Mathematically, the potential is huge. By 2020, around 25,000 tons of old fluorescent powder had been collected in the European Union. Because it contains toxic mercury, it is stored as sulfide in old tunnels underground. It could be "easily procured in large quantities and exploited using biofishing," Lederer says. According to her calculations, just under 4,800 tons of rare earths could be recovered in this way – theoretically enough to supply Germany for years to come.
But the process still isn't ready for the market yet. And it's also expensive. Just over 10 percent of Germany's raw material requirements can currently be met through recycling. Overall, says Christoph Helbig, who models global material cycles at the University of Bayreuth, the circular economy is likely to be a similar tour de force to Germany's "Energiewende" transition to green energies. "It will take at least 10 to 20 years" before more than 50 percent of demand for lithium and rare earths can be met through recycling, he says.
Lithium extraction in the Chaerhan Salt Lake in China's Qinghai provinceFoto: Qilai Shen / The New York Times / Redux / lai / Editing by Germán & CoNevertheless, Lederer is certain of a broad coalition of supporters. No strategy paper from Berlin or Brussels and no gathering of ideas from industry to combat the raw materials crisis can get around the circular economy. Germany and Europe, the strategy papers state, have a good chance of becoming world leaders in recycling technology and of securing a degree of self-sufficiency, at least in the long term, through the reprocessing of electronic waste.
The fact that Germany is so keen on recycling has to do with a narrative that starts in schools. Germany, it is taught in this country, is poor in raw materials, but rich in bright minds. The country's exceptional engineers, avant-garde physicians and world-class chemists are what gave it its economic strength and environmental power – and not, for the last several years, the mineral resources of the Ruhr region, the Lausitz region or the Upper Rhine Plain.
In fact, this is only partly true. There are also reserves of lithium, rare earths and tin under Europe's soils. Sweden's state-owned mining company LKAB, for example, announced at the beginning of the year that it had discovered Europe's largest deposit of rare earths north of the Arctic Circle. In the Upper Rhine Plain, an Australian-German consortium has plans to filter lithium from underground thermal springs. And Schimmelbusch's AMG recently acquired a 25-percent stake in the so-called Zinnwald project on the German-Czech border. Lithium is also to be dredged there. So far, the European Commission has assumed that only 5 percent of the demand for critical raw materials can be met from domestic sources. However, the higher the price of raw materials becomes, the more attractive their exploration and extraction grows.
But even then, domestic mining will remain much more difficult and, most importantly, more expensive than importing for the foreseeable future. There is a lack of capital, at this point even a lack of know-how and a lack of companies that are willing to take risks themselves. Since former mine operator Preussag was transformed into the tourism-focused corporation TUI and the old metals company ceased operations, Germany no longer has a real raw materials multinational in the country. No big companies have been willing to take the risk because operations would be too dirty, too expensive and too unreliable.
Because regardless whether in Chile or eastern Germany, the risk of failure is immense in the raw materials business. It can take up to 10 years to develop a new deposit. That means that before a ton of metal or mineral arrives at the factories in Stuttgart, Wolfsburg or Munich, a decade of investments has to be made. All kinds of things can go wrong on the way: The deposits can prove to be smaller than expected. The political framework can change, global market prices can fall and, with them, the financing.
And then there's popular resistance. If the erection of a wind turbine or the construction of a power line is accompanied by decades of protests in many places, large-scale mining in Germany are likely to be even more unpopular. The same applies elsewhere in Europe, where important raw material treasures often lie under the very soils that are also valuable for tourism, possibly even appearing more valuable in the short term. Places like the Portugal's Algarve or Italy's Po Valley.
Instead of promoting greater acceptance, the industry simply ignored the problem. German carmakers long refused to accept that the era of the internal combustion engine was coming to an end and that in the era of e-mobility, completely different primary products and raw materials would suddenly determine success or failure. Only the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the geostrategic confrontation with China have made it clear to the auto bosses that they will be crushed in the marketplace if they don't gain control of the new key raw materials. "The energy transition has now given way to the materials transition," reads one report on raw materials from Brussels. According to a study by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), the world will soon be more dependent on critical raw materials such as rare earths than it is on oil today.
And a horror scenario is already making the rounds: deindustrialization. In the future, the greatest value creation will take place in regions that are rich in raw materials, some automobile industry executives are warning. Trade agreements and raw materials partnerships are needed quickly to secure access to resources Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius recently said, expressing the urgency of the situation.
The industry is crying out for help from the government in Berlin. "The market is no longer functioning, and the shortages will increase," says Matthias Wachter, a raw materials expert at the German Federation of Industries (BDI). "We need political support."
In one paper, BDI's lobbyists seek to blame the German raw materials disaster not on their own members, but on politicians. In other places, BDI argues, there is "targeted government support" for the mining and processing of raw materials.
The German government isn't interested in shouldering the blame. Franziska Brantner, the parliamentary state secretary in the Economics Ministry responsible for raw materials, is astonished by the chutzpah of the corporations. Of course, China is the world's largest supplier of processed critical raw materials and rare earths, she says. "But that has nothing to do with the fact that these substances don't exist elsewhere."
Brantner has been tasked by her boss, German Economics Minister Robert Habeck, with reducing Germany's dependency on key materials. Her many travels on that mission have taken her to Latin America, the United States, Canada and Africa. And before Easter, she was in Australia.
Parliamentary State Secretary Franziska Brantner: "Many were only concerned about getting the cheapest price."Foto: Dominik Butzmann / DER SPIEGEL 7 Editing by Germán & CoA member of the Green Party, Brantner says China also owes its rise to a blend of thoughtlessness, specialization and the division of labor at German companies. "Many were only concerned about getting the cheapest price," says Brantner. And China, she says, has always offered that, thanks to low wages and state subsidies. If the business community is now calling for help, it shouldn't "be a matter of the state assuming all the risk, but of supporting the companies." Industry, she says, can't go by the principle of privatizing the profits while making taxpayers carry the risks.
Brantner likes to illustrate just how recklessly industry has relinquished control of the issue of raw materials by pointing to the example of gallium production in Germany. The mineral is essential for the semiconductor industry, and it can also be used in the manufacture of light-emitting diodes. Domestic production continued until 2015, the 43-year-old says. But the plant was no match for much cheaper Chinese production and was therefore abandoned.
In an attempt to ensure that history doesn't repeat itself, Brantner presented a paper at the beginning of the year outlining pathways to a sustainable and resilient supply of raw materials. She also believes that policymakers can do some of the work themselves by, for example, providing financial support for feasibility studies and geological investigations and accelerating processes. A commodity fund is also being discussed with which the state-owned KfW development bank could hedge the risks of exploration in a similar manner to Hermes export guarantees. Berlin is even considering differential contracts under which the German government would assume part of the higher costs associated with raw materials that are produced domestically, fairly and sustainably.
But it is first and foremost the business community that must step up. The European Commission has proposed that large corporations be subject to a kind of audit for particularly critical and strategic raw materials in order to identify their own vulnerability. Brantner also wants to encourage companies to stockpile more critical raw materials. So far, this hasn't been worthwhile for companies for tax reasons, because it requires space and also ties up capital. The latter problem could be mitigated if companies didn't have to pay import duties until the materials were actually processed.
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner would have to implement such a tax break, which companies are strongly pushing for. Lindner appears to be skeptical in light of Germany's tight budget situation, but particularly given that stockpiling can help with short-term supply chain disruptions, like when a ship gets stuck in the Suez Canal, but does nothing to end strategic dependencies.
For the time being, Brantner's only option is to push for government-level raw materials partnerships like the one Economics Minister Habeck recently concluded with Colombia. These partnership agreements promise the mining companies not only fair payment for the use of their raw materials, but also sustainable mining in accordance with German environmental and social standards. More importantly, though: a share of the value added.
It's a more humane counter-design to the neo-colonial style used by China. And an approach that might actually catch on. Chilean President Gabriel Boric recently announced that all private companies in the country wanting to mine lithium in the future must partner with the state in joint ventures. Chile, Boric said, simply cannot afford not to take advantage of its lithium deposits.
In the past, there had been little talk in Germany's raw materials strategy of the country truly being on level-footing with the countries doing the mining. But that's now set to change. With a focus on local value creation, increased sustainability and human rights, you would have a unique selling point, argues Viktoria Reisch of Germanwatch, an NGO promoting sustainability, climate action and global equity in Berlin. "Now it is a matter of linking that approach with the European raw materials strategy," she says.
So far, though, little headway has been made on the latter. It is true that the European Commission just presented its Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), with which it intends to tackle the industry's supply bottlenecks and respond to the American offensive. But the paper offers little by way of concrete measures. It doesn't include fixed quotas for the recycling of raw materials or the extraction of metals from domestic soil. Nor does it provide any timetable. "Many had hoped for considerably more," says a German government official.
So, What Comes Next?
On the edge of the city center in Essen, in building Q6 of Thyssenkrupp headquarters, Martin Stillger formulates an answer that many of his customers might not like to hear at all. Stillger presides over a seemingly endless raw materials empire at Thyssenkrupp Materials Services. If the industry is the junkie and China is the drug cartel, then Stillger is the dealer. The man has pretty much everything on offer that creation provides. Steel, stainless steel, aluminum. But also gases and rare earths, precisely the critical raw materials Europe so urgently needs. A quarter of a million customers worldwide buy 16 billion euros worth of goods each year from Stillger.
Of course, Stillger says, China is an important supplier for many products. Sometimes, it's the only one. Nevertheless, there are alternatives, and the pandemic, with all the distortions it brought, has even accelerated their development. The problem: Domestic metals, ores and primary products may be cleaner and safer, but they are also far more expensive.
For 15 years, Stillger steered the fortunes of a medium-sized mechanical engineering company that was once a pioneer in China. In other words, he knows the enemy – at least that's how he might put it. Stillger sees a need for a fundamental change – in the minds of management. The executive has identified a huge management failure on the part of domestic industry, saying that the very people who are now calling most loudly for help from politicians on the issue of raw materials are often the same ones who "always made the decision on the basis of cost alone" in the past. For decades, buyers have been "trained and incentivized to negotiating the lowest price," he says. Everyone thought: Peace and freedom are prevailing. So they bought from China, he says. "Now they are realizing that we're at a dead end and there is no way of turning around."
"We're at a dead end and there is no way of turning around."
Martin Stillger, CEO of Thyssenkrupp Materials Services
He argues that executives are needed "who can withstand the cycles of the commodities industry" and buy outside China even when "the price gap widens." Governments, Stillger says, should only step in and help where corporations are making an honest effort to become less dependent. Otherwise, everything would remain the same. The parallels to the gas and oil supply crunch following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the moves made to reduce reliance on Moscow, are clear. It's a principle Stillger calls: "Learning through pain."
In the small town of Zimmern ob Rottweil in Baden-Württemberg, people know what a learning curve of this sort feels like. Predicting growing demand early on, entrepreneur Wolfgang Schmutz entered into a joint venture in 2018 with Bolivian state-owned lithium company YLB to extract tens of thousands of tons of lithium brine from the famous Uyuni salt lake. Schmutz wanted to use it to supply the domestic auto industry. Even then, German Economics Minister Peter Altmaier of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party traveled to the signing of the contract for the project, called ACISA.
But things started heading south from there. In the fall of 2019, Bolivian President Evo Morales scrapped the ACISA program, with Schmutz learning about it on the radio one morning. The Bolivians hadn't even informed him. The German government and the Baden-Württemberg state government in Stuttgart were just as surprised as Schmutz, and they were ultimately unable to find a solution. "It wasn't meant to be," he says, dourly. Schmutz has since shifted his focus back to mechanical and plant engineering.
The Economics Ministry in Berlin says the company got involved with the wrong partners. But it also seems clear that the South Americans would almost certainly have dealt differently with a multinational corporation like Mercedes-Benz or Siemens.
The project has since been given to another party. In January, a foreign consortium led by the CATL Group was awarded the contract by the Bolivian government. The treasure in the Uyuni salt lake will now be exploited for decades to come - by a Chinese, state-owned company.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
The sun sets behind an electricity pylon in Borehamwood, Britain, February 8, 2023. REUTERS/Peter Cziborra / Editing by Germán & CoUK says it spent nearly 40 billion pounds on power subsidies
According to the business ministry, businesses and other organizations have received around 5.5 billion pounds through the Energy Bill Relief Scheme. Additionally, almost 1 billion pounds have been allocated to other programmes. However, the cost of these subsidies has contributed to the increase in Britain's public borrowing since their launch in October.
Reuters, June 8, 20232LONDON, June 8 (Reuters) - Britain's government said on Thursday that it has paid almost 40 billion pounds ($50 billion) in energy subsidies since it began to help households and businesses cope with the surge in power bills after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Between the launch of the schemes in October and March, nearly 21 billion pounds was spent on the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) programme that supports households with their bills, the government said.
A further 12 billion pounds was paid under the Energy Bills Support Scheme, which offered homes payments of 400 pounds towards their bills over the winter months.
Businesses and other organisations received about 5.5 billion pounds under the Energy Bill Relief Scheme and almost 1 billion pounds was spent on other programmes, the business ministry said.
The cost of the subsidies has helped to swell Britain's public borrowing since they were launched last October.
The Office for National Statistics has put the cost at 41.2 billion pounds in the financial year ending in March.
The EPG subsidies for households are due to end in July as regulated prices fall below the level of the cap. Support for businesses is scheduled to run until March 2024.
The energy ministry said the some of the funding for the energy subsidies would come from a so-called windfall tax on energy producers which was expected to raise almost 26 billion pounds by March 2028.
Image by Germán & CoTaiwan activates air defence as China aircraft enter zone
The government of Taiwan has reported Chinese air force flights near Taiwan, a territory claimed by China and known as "The Land of Chiang Kai-shek." This raises concerns about security risks and territorial disputes between the two nations.
Reuters, June 8, 2023 / Editing by Germán & CoAirplane is seen in front of Chinese and Taiwanese flags in this illustration, August 6, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
TAIPEI, June 8 (Reuters) - Taiwan activated its defence systems on Thursday after reporting 37 Chinese military aircraft flying into the island's air defence zone, some of which then flew into the western Pacific, in Beijing's latest mass air incursion.
China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has over the past three years regularly flown its air force into the skies near the island, though not into Taiwan's territorial air space.
Taiwan's defence ministry said that from 5 a.m. (2100 GMT on Wednesday) it had detected 37 Chinese air force planes, including J-11 and J-16 fighters as well as nuclear-capable H-6 bombers, flying into the southwestern corner of its air defence identification zone, or ADIZ.
The ADIZ is a broader area Taiwan monitors and patrols to give its forces more time to respond to threats.
Some of the Chinese aircraft flew to Taiwan's southeast and crossed into the western Pacific to perform "air surveillance and long distance navigation training", the ministry said in a statement.
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Taiwan sent its aircraft and ships to keep watch and activated land-based missile systems, it added, using its standard wording for how it responds to such Chinese activity.
China's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
China completed a second phase of joint air patrols with Russia over the Western Pacific on Wednesday, following flights on the previous day over the Sea of Japan and East China Sea, prompting concern in Japan over its national security.
Japan's defence ministry said it scrambled a jet fighter on Thursday morning in response to a Chinese information-gathering aircraft Y-9 flying over the Pacific Ocean and east of Taiwan.
Japan also lodged a protest against China for its naval and coast guard vessels entering Japan's territorial waters along the country's southwest archipelago on Thursday, Tokyo's top spokesperson Hirokazu Matsuno told a press conference.
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Laura Rosenberger, chair of the American Institute in Taiwan, which manages the unofficial relationship between Washington and Taipei, is visiting Taiwan this week.
On Monday, she told Taiwan media that the United States had an enduring interest in preserving stability in the Taiwan Strait and the United States would continue to arm the island, a source of constant friction in Sino-U.S. ties.
In April, China held war games around Taiwan following a trip to the United States by Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.
Taiwan's government rejects China's sovereignty claims and says only the island's people can decide their future.
Reporting by Ben Blanchard in Taipei; Additional reporting by Kantaro Komiya in Tokyo; Editing by Tom Hogue and Raju Gopalakrishnan
Spcial Edition / News round-up, June 7, 2023
What a world we live in… Natural gas and water, as element of war…
The occurrence of the global recession can be attributed to four fundamental causes. The first related to the origins of SARC-2 are currently under investigation and subject to speculation. The precise aetiology of the virus is yet to be determined. However, there is a prevailing belief that it could have originated from a laboratory mishap in the biotechnology sector, culminating in a worldwide outbreak (1). The second factor contributing to Russia's aggression towards Ukraine is historical support for Russian imperialism (2). The third factor necessitates a prudent approach towards discussing failure, as it is imperative to recognize that certain European politicians may have committed errors in their decision-making process, knowingly or unknowingly, by aligning themselves with a sole fuel provider whose history remains intricate and obscure. In the current era, characterized by the growing prevalence of autocratic tendencies, it is crucial to maintain objectivity and afford politicians a reputation for integrity and the presumption of innocence (3). The four is the destructions at Nord Stream ,is a condemnable and detrimental incident, regardless of the perpetrator (4). And finalle the situation regarding the blast of the Nova Kakhovka dam is quite concerning and may have severe consequences shortly, e.i. further escalating the war and causing a further increase in grain prices (5).
The confluence of these factors has resulted in substantial worldwide upheaval in the realms of geopolitics and economics.
In light of the present circumstances, it is imperative to implement rigorous security protocols and establish a comprehensive legal framework at the international level. This statement is particularly relevant to Norway, as it stands out as the only European neighbour with which Moscow has never engaged in military hostilities. Despite its smaller population compared to St. Petersburg, Norway occupies a significant position in Europe's energy supply chain owing to its status as the largest natural gas supplier and its abundant crude oil and wind power reserves. Its play in meeting the region's energy demands is of utmost importance. Protecting the vast network of natural gas pipelines, which covers over 9,000 kilometres, along with power and communication cables, is of utmost significance.
Most Read…
Dam sabotage creates Ukraine’s worst environmental disaster ‘since Chernobyl’
Destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam threatens tens of thousands of people, the country’s energy grid and the environment.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA, JUNE 6, 2023 Norway and Russia Face Off in the Far North
Russian trawlers appear to be angling for more than fish, sailors are taking an interest in bridges and spies are being uncovered: In the far north of Europe, the Kremlin appears to be increasing its activity, and Norway is paying close attention.
SPIEGEL BY WALTER MAYR IN KIRKENES, NORWAY, JUNE 6, 2023Image credit: POLITICO EU Editing by Germán & CoWhat a world we live in… Natural gas and water, as element of war…
The occurrence of the global recession can be attributed to four fundamental causes. The first related to the origins of SARC-2 are currently under investigation and subject to speculation. The precise aetiology of the virus is yet to be determined. However, there is a prevailing belief that it could have originated from a laboratory mishap in the biotechnology sector, culminating in a worldwide outbreak (1). The second factor contributing to Russia's aggression towards Ukraine is historical support for Russian imperialism (2). The third factor necessitates a prudent approach towards discussing failure, as it is imperative to recognize that certain European politicians may have committed errors in their decision-making process, knowingly or unknowingly, by aligning themselves with a sole fuel provider whose history remains intricate and obscure. In the current era, characterized by the growing prevalence of autocratic tendencies, it is crucial to maintain objectivity and afford politicians a reputation for integrity and the presumption of innocence (3). The four is the destructions at Nord Stream ,is a condemnable and detrimental incident, regardless of the perpetrator (4). And finalle the situation regarding the blast of the Nova Kakhovka dam is quite concerning and may have severe consequences shortly, e.i. further escalating the war and causing a further increase in grain prices (5).
The confluence of these factors has resulted in substantial worldwide upheaval in the realms of geopolitics and economics.
In light of the present circumstances, it is imperative to implement rigorous security protocols and establish a comprehensive legal framework at the international level. This statement is particularly relevant to Norway, as it stands out as the only European neighbour with which Moscow has never engaged in military hostilities. Despite its smaller population compared to St. Petersburg, Norway occupies a significant position in Europe's energy supply chain owing to its status as the largest natural gas supplier and its abundant crude oil and wind power reserves. Its play in meeting the region's energy demands is of utmost importance. Protecting the vast network of natural gas pipelines, which covers over 9,000 kilometres, along with power and communication cables, is of utmost significance.
Most Read…
Dam sabotage creates Ukraine’s worst environmental disaster ‘since Chernobyl’
Destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam threatens tens of thousands of people, the country’s energy grid and the environment.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA, JUNE 6, 2023 Norway and Russia Face Off in the Far North
Russian trawlers appear to be angling for more than fish, sailors are taking an interest in bridges and spies are being uncovered: In the far north of Europe, the Kremlin appears to be increasing its activity, and Norway is paying close attention.
SPIEGEL By Walter Mayr in Kirkenes, Norway, June 6, 2023The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image credit: POLITICO EU Editing by Germán & CoDam sabotage creates Ukraine’s worst environmental disaster ‘since Chernobyl’
Destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam threatens tens of thousands of people, the country’s energy grid and the environment.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA, JUNE 6, 2023 KYIV — Worries about a massive environmental disaster in Ukraine have long focused on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. But people were looking in the wrong place.
The catastrophe happened early Tuesday when explosions tore through the colossal Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine — draining one of the Continent's largest artificial reservoirs. It forced the evacuation of thousands of people downstream, polluted land, destroyed a large electricity generator and will cause future problems with water supplies.
Kyiv blames Russia, which seized control of the dam on February 24, 2022, the first day of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin pointed the finger at Ukraine, but supplied no evidence.
Ukraine has long warned of the danger. In October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the West to pressure Russia not to blow up the dam, which he said had been rigged with explosives. "Destroying the dam would mean a large-scale disaster," he said.
But while international observers are present at Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, that wasn't the case with Nova Kakhovka. The dam has seen months of fighting as Ukraine pushed Russian troops back over the Dnipro River last year and it now lies on the front line between the two armies.
A human disaster
The immediate impact is on people living downstream; the western shore of the Dnipro is under Ukrainian control, while the east is still held by Russia.
The Ukrainian head of the Kherson region, Oleksandr Prokudin, said as many as 16,000 people in Ukrainian-controlled territory are in danger and many would have to leave their homes.
Vitaly Bogdanov, a lawmaker on the Kherson city council who lives nearby, went to see the scale of the damage on Tuesday morning. "There is no panic, rescue services are working, the police and military are everywhere," he told POLITICO, adding: "Many people are being evacuated."
Bogdanov said he was not planning to leave his home as he has to look after elderly relatives.
Those living in Russian-occupied territory have been left uncertain of what to do next.
Sergii Zeinalov, a film director living in Kyiv, called his grandmother in Oleshki, a town about 70 kilometers downstream from the dam, on Tuesday morning. "At that time there was no water in the town. As far as I know there is no electricity or communication in Oleshki now. As a result information is coming slowly. Meanwhile, water is approaching the houses there."
Environmental impact
Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrij Melnyk called the Nova Kakhovka dam breach "the worst environmental disaster in Europe since Chernobyl."
The range of impacts is vast — from displacing people to drowning animals and polluting the environment.
"Now we know that potentially 600 or maybe even 800 tons of oil have been released into the water," Ukrainian Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets said in Brussels. "This oil spill will drift into the Dnipro River, and I'm sure that it will be in Black Sea."
In his overnight address posted early Wednesday, Zelenskyy called the attack "ecocide," saying: "An oil slick of at least 150 tons formed and was taken by the current to the Black Sea. We cannot yet predict how much of the chemicals, fertilizers and oil products stored in the flooded areas will end up in the rivers and sea."
According to Olexi Pasyuk, a campaigner with environmental group CEE Bankwatch, the flood's "temporary impacts" could last up to a week.
"However, later on the bigger impact will be caused by lack of water as Kakhovka reservoir is a source of water for the watering system of south Kherson region," he added. "We can expect significant problems for agriculture and for local people who live off it."
Draining the reservoir could also have a dramatic impact on the illegally occupied Crimean Peninsula. It relies on water from mainland Ukraine; one of the first actions of invading Russian troops last year was to reopen a water channel linked to the reservoir that had been closed by Ukraine after the 2014 annexation.
“It’s going to be a social-economic disaster. Farmers won't be able to grow crops," said Wim Zwijnenburg with PAX, a Dutch NGO, and a contributor to the Bellingcat investigative network. "Ukraine had already [blocked] the river to Crimea prior to the conflict to stop the water flow, which already led to some desertification in the area. It's hard to predict anything — most of the effects will probably play out in two to three years' time.”
Iiulia Markhel, coordinator of Let's Do It Ukraine SOS, the country's largest environmental NGO, called the burst dam a "catastrophe."
"Animals, species, will be destroyed," she said. "It will change the climate of the whole region. Ukrainian agrarian lands have likely been destroyed. The area will be flooded. The places the water will leave will turn into deserts; the places the water will stay will become swamps."
It adds to the vast cost of the war's environmental impact, which has reached 2 trillion hryvnia (€53 billion), said Ukraine's environment ministry.
Power struggles
The destruction of the dam won't have an immediate effect on Ukraine's national electricity grid, said Vitaliy Mukhin, a strategic adviser to Kyiv’s state-owned hydropower company Ukrhydroenergo. Nova Kakhovka, built in the 1950s, has a capacity of 357 megawatts but it hasn't contributed much power since it came under Russian occupation.
It won't be back online anytime soon. Ukrhydroenergo said “as a result of blasts in the machine hall, the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station is completely destroyed. It is not recoverable.”
The hydropower station would have been a key source of clean energy and an important part of Ukraine's post-war energy mix, said Olena Pavlenko, president of Kyiv's DiXi group energy think tank.
Ihor Syrota, the head of Ukrhydroenergo, said Kyiv will build a new plant on the same site once it liberates the territory.
Blowing the Nova Kakhovka dam has a potential impact on the battle-scarred Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, also occupied by Russian troops. The plant relies on the reservoir's water to cool its six reactors, but they are now in so-called cold shutdown, and the plant's cooling pool is full so only needs a “few liters per second," said Leon Cizelj, president of the European Nuclear Society.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said there is enough cooling water at the plant to last for about six months.
"The facility has back-up options available and there is no short-term risk to nuclear safety and security," said Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi.
"The conflict keeps pushing new boundaries," said Doug Weir, research and policy director at the Conflict and Environment Observatory. "A lot of people have been worried about these dams but at the same time never really expected them to be breached. The events just keep unfolding, building layers of environmental damage and harm in Ukraine.”
Norwegian border guards at the Pasvikelva River, which marks the border with Russia Photo: Patrick Junker & Jonathan Terlinden/Editing by Germán & CoNorway and Russia Face Off in the Far North
Russian trawlers appear to be angling for more than fish, sailors are taking an interest in bridges and spies are being uncovered: In the far north of Europe, the Kremlin appears to be increasing its activity, and Norway is paying close attention.
SPIEGEL By Walter Mayr in Kirkenes, Norway, June 6, 2023Norway’s best-known scout is standing in a boat and staring through binoculars to the east. The forested coastline of the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia is gliding past, the place where Vladimir Putin’s fleet of nuclear-armed submarines is based.
Not much is known about the Kremlin’s deadly squadron. It was once Frodo Berg’s job to try to learn more, but the now-retired border guard was captured in 2017 during his final mission to Russia. For almost two years, he was held in Moscow’s notorious Lefortovo Prison, subsisting largely on a diet of water and buckwheat porridge.
Berg was released early as part of a spy swap. Still today, the Norwegian insists that he innocently became trapped between the fronts of this new Cold War between NATO and Russia.
On this particular morning, the exposed agent has agreed to make a visit to the border with DER SPIEGEL. Our destination, the very northeastern edge of NATO territory.
We head along the demarcation line in a hovercraft, passing by the still-frozen Pasvikelva River. The factory chimneys of the Russian border locality of Nikel can be seen in the distance.
Norway is the only European neighbor against which Moscow has never waged war.
Lately, though, a growing number of reports have been making the rounds of suspicious Russian shipping activity off the coast of Norway, of strange drones and of an increased number of Russian long-range bombers at the Olenya airbase not far from the border. Disquiet is growing at the northernmost boundary line between Putin’s vast empire and the Western military alliance.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that fact last Thursday at the NATO foreign minister summit at Oslo City Hall. The partnership with Norway in response to the "Russian aggression," the top American diplomat said, "is quite simply invaluable."
Berg says that he used to make frequent trips to Russia as part of his job. He says he would meet with his counterparts from the Russian domestic intelligence agency FSB for talks, followed by a visit to a sauna and vodka – the standard program at the beginning of the millennium.
"I never thought that the dreaded Russian army would run into such difficulties in a conventional war against Ukraine," Berg says. "But I think it is quite possible that Putin will begin focusing even more intently on hybrid warfare."
Which means that critical Western infrastructure is in the sights of Kremlin strategists. The entire country of Norway may only be home to as many people as the Russian city of St. Petersburg, but it is Europe’s largest supplier of natural gas and it is also rich in crude oil and wind power. Natural gas pipelines stretching out over 9,000 kilometers (5,592 miles) must be protected, in addition to power and communication cables – a need underlined by the as yet unexplained attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last fall.
Those able to disrupt the main channels of energy and communication can gain firm control over the central nervous system of the Western economy. On just a single day, trillions of dollars worth of financial transactions run through undersea cables. And almost the entirety of global communication takes place through deep sea cables.
The End of Peaceful Cooperation
In March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the former prime minister of Norway, made a symbolic appearance with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the world’s largest natural gas platform, a facility known as Troll A off the cost of Norway. It was Stoltenberg’s father who helped found the Barents Euro-Arctic Council, a body that established cooperation with post-Soviet Russia. His son was then instrumental in 2010 in negotiating the seminal treaty over the border between the two countries in the Barents Sea, complete with the division of fishing grounds and oil and natural gas deposits.
But the era of peaceful cooperation has come to an end. Now, Jens Stoltenberg, speaking on behalf of NATO, is more likely to warn of a fundamentally altered security situation as a result of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.
Norway’s army has been at a heightened state of alert since November. "It was unimaginable for us that Russia might invade another country," says Lieutenant Colonel Michael Rozmara.
Rozmara commands NATO’s northernmost position, held by the assault battalion in Sør-Varanger, stationed right where the Pasvikelva River divides the two countries. "We first had to come to terms with questions of what might be facing us in the future. For us as a battalion, positioned right on the border with Russia, it’s quite a challenge."
Rozmara commands just over 800 men and women, most of them conscripts.
The battalion’s coat-of-arms includes a wolf. In winter, they head out on skis and snowmobiles to patrol the 198-kilometer-long border with Russia. A visit to the shooting range finds a tightly organized unit, with the young rangers wearing 40-kilogram backpacks and stylish sunglasses as they arrive to practice their marksmanship with HK416 assault rifles.
In the unit’s headquarters on Jarfjorden, there are life-sized puppets wearing original Russian border-guard uniforms so that the soldiers know what their adversaries look like. In March, Norwegian King Harald V. came for a visit. Commander Rozmara says he saw the visit of the commander-in-chief as a sign of respect, and as a clear indication of the tense security situation.
In April, Oslo expelled 15 Russian diplomats for alleged espionage activities. In addition, rules governing Russian trawlers were tightened, though they are still allowed to enter three ports in Norway, a founding member of NATO, despite increased concerns of Russian spying and sabotage.
Those concerns have been fueled in party by journalists from the Norwegian broadcaster NRK. Together with reporters from Sweden, Denmark and Finland, they filmed a three-part series called "Shadow War," which sketched out how Putin’s troops are developing the far north and the waters from the Baltic Sea to the icy waters near Spitzbergen into an operational focus.
"Complete Reversal"
"The people north of the Artic Circle have always had a far different perspective regarding the proximity of Russia than Norwegians far away in the southern part of the country," says Håvard Gulldahl, speaking in the NRK studios located in the port city of Tromsø. He and his fellow reporter Inghild Eriksen meticulously traced the activities of the Kremlin in the region.
Particularly in the waters of the Barents Sea, near where Norway meets Russia, the place where Stalin’s army once freed the population from Nazi rule, there is a deep sense of foreboding about their neighbors. "What is currently taking place is a complete reversal in the relationship to Russia."
Using software he developed himself, Gulldahl – as the team’s tech nerd – followed the movements of more than four dozen suspicious Russian ships, all of them allegedly civilian vessels. Even routes taken 10 years ago can be traced using AIS, which stands for automatic identification system – provided the captains hadn't just switched off their AIS transponders to leave no trace.
The team of NRK reporters sought to examine incidents in which a cable under the Barents Sea was damaged to see which trawlers might have been in the area at the time. They found that Russian ships frequently sailed close to wind parks and military sites – especially when NATO exercises were being performed, such as those that take place in and around the testing grounds on the island of Andøya. Or when, as took place last December, the multibillion-dollar nuclear submarine USS South Dakota sailed into the port of Tromsø – shadowed by the Taurus, a Russian ship officially registered as a trawler.
The Russian trawlers can be seen on a walk along the quays in the Norwegian city of Balsfjord, population 80,000. Ships such as the Sapphire 2, an 821-ton vessel from Murmansk, are tied up here on this afternoon. They come here to unload their catch, refuel, perform maintenance or obtain repairs – in one of three Norwegian ports that are the only places in all of Europe that Russian ships are still allowed.
New Flanks
NATO MEMBER IN BLUE
Tromsø, of course, plays a particularly outsized role in public perceptions of Russian activity in the region. It is here where Mikhail Mikushin was arrested last fall, an allegedly active Russian agent who was working as a researcher at the local university under an assumed name. Norwegian prosecutors accuse Mikushin, who has since been arrested, of gathering intelligence linked to state secrets and saying that he posed a danger to "the country’s fundamental interests."
"Fifth Column"
Mikushin, who is thought to be a member of the Russian military intelligence agency GRU, has denied the accusations against him.
Until his arrest, he conducted research at the Center for Peace Studies, precisely in the department – referred to internally as the "gray zone" – that focuses on the dangers presented by hybrid warfare. The academics working there failed to realize for quite some time that they themselves were actually the focus of his observations. The Center for Peace Studies now says that Mikushin, who began working at the institute under a falsified Brazilian passport, was apparently seeking to establish a secret network that could, should the need arise, carry out orders from Putin as a kind of "fifth column."
Other Russians in Tromsø have also been the focus of suspicions. Andrei Yakunin, son of close Putin confidant Vladimir Yakunin, had to appear in court for flying a drone over the Arctic archipelago of Spitzbergen. The younger Yakunin, who has both British and Russian citizenship and is thought to be worth a quarter-billion euros, spent six weeks in pre-trial detention before he was ultimately acquitted and released.
The fact that Spitzbergen is home to the largest satellite ground station in the world with over 100 antenna, the sensitive data of which is transferred around the world through two fiber-optic cables, may in fact have escaped Yakunin Jr.’s attention. Perhaps the jetsetter also missed the increasing self-confidence with which the Kremlin is behaving on the northern archipelago as he filmed with a drone.
Spitzbergen is a demilitarized, international territory under Norwegian administration. Because of its strategic location and proximity to possible raw materials deposits, it is assumed that in the event of a conflict, it would be contested ground.
The fronts have become particularly hardened in the town of Barentsburg, a 400-person municipality on Spitzbergen and a place where Russia mines coal. The town hosted a Russian parade on May 9 to mark the country’s World War II victory, complete with a Lenin statue and snowmobiles flying the Russian flag. It was led by the Russian general consul, who, according to the Dossier Center run by the Russian opposition, is also linked to the GRU military intelligence service – though he denies the allegation.
Frosty Climate
Spitzbergen is like a thermometer that takes the temperature of relationship between Russia and NATO. The group of islands, according to an analysis from the Norwegian foreign intelligence agency, is of "military-strategic importance" for the Kremlin. The report noted that the Russian presence is likely to increase throughout 2023. The Norwegian governor on Spitzbergen, who regularly meets with the leading Russian representative there, admits that the climate between the two of them has grown frosty.
Contributing to that deterioration is the fact that one of the archipelago's two undersea cables was damaged on January 7, 2022. According to reporters from the broadcaster NRK, the trawler Melkart-5, registered in the Russian port city of Murmansk, had crisscrossed the site of the incident west of Spitzbergen more than 100 times.
Was the ship merely pursuing unorthodox fishing methods or was it intentional sabotage? The incident has never been satisfactorily resolved. The seabed is essentially invisible, which makes it a perfect target for hybrid warfare.
"Kirkenes and the entire Finnmark region could be something like a laboratory where the Russians try out various tools for hybrid warfare."
Police Chief Ellen Katrine Hætta
After the Melkart-5 also made appearances close to natural gas pipelines and fiber-optic cables north of the Norwegian mainland, and also popped up not far from the NATO winter exercise Cold Response, the trawler was documented by the authorities in the Norwegian city of Kirkenes on the Barents Sea as entering the port on July 17, 2022. What then ensued was rather unexpected: Part of the ship’s Russian crew left the ship in a smaller boat and headed across Langfjorden toward the strategically important Strømmen Bridge, the only connection between the isolated port city of Kirkenes with the rest of Norway.
When stopped and fined by local authorities for violating shore leave regulations in the sensitive area, the Russians insisted they had done nothing wrong. A few days later, they left Norwegian waters on board the Melkart-5 and headed home.
"Kirkenes and the entire Finnmark region (of northern Norway) could be something like a laboratory where the Russians try out various tools for hybrid warfare," says Ellen Katrine Hætta.
The energetic police chief, a member of the Sámi people, wears two stars on her epaulettes, the equivalent of being a high-ranking officer in the military. Hætta has 450 men and women under her command – and a significant share of the essentially pro-Russian population against her, animosity that stems from her habit of expressing her concerns openly.
Moscow, she says, is using "pinpricks" to "see how Norway reacts."
There was the incident involving Russian seamen walking through the Kirkenes city center in camouflage. There are the Russian trawlers Ester and Lira that attracted police attention in port because of the Soviet-era radio equipment they were carrying behind locked doors. And there are the regular jamming signals sent out from the Kola Peninsula across the water, causing significant difficulties for the pilots of Norwegian civilian aircraft.
The pilot flying the turboprop plane on the way to Kirkenes on this particular morning gets out during a stopover to check on the propellers herself. She seems relatively relaxed. For many years, the rule of thumb in the region has been "high north, low tension," essentially meaning that an effort was always made in these parts to avoid upsetting the powerful eastern neighbor.
Still Dancing
Is that still the case in Kirkenes? The engraving at the entrance to City Hall would seem to indicate that nothing has changed: It shows the Norwegian lion still dancing hand-in-hand with the Russian bear.
Diagonally across the street, behind the barred windows of the Russian Consulate, nobody believes the relationship will return to normal anytime soon. During the last appearance by the general consul on the anniversary of liberation at the hands of the Red Army, half of the audience turned their back on the speaker in protest.
Kirkenes is Norway’s northeastern outpost, situated 400 kilometers north of the Arctic Circle, home to 3,500 people who live just a 15-minute drive from the Russian border. The ice-free port serves as the gateway to the Barents Sea, with its vast natural gas deposits – and, as a result of climate change, as a possible starting and ending point of a Northeast Passage to Asia, navigable year-round.
It is a place where the presence of Russia is more palpable than anywhere else in the European Union. It is impossible to miss the Russian seamen at the docks and in the city, the huge Russian trawlers tied up in the port, the Cyrillic writing that can be seen here and there in town, and the fresh wreaths recently laid at the monument honoring the Soviet liberators.
Just 100 kilometers away as the crow flies is the Kola Peninsula, home to one of the densest populations in the world of nuclear weapons and nuclear waste depots. Tons of radioactive garbage is dumped in Andreev Bay, while nuclear-powered submarines are based in Gadzhiyevo. The Main Directorate of Deep See Research (GUGI), an elite department specializing in deep-sea reconnaissance and related activities, also has a base on the peninsula.
The concept of "little green men," which saw irregular fighters under the control of the Kremlin infiltrate the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine to pave the way for a Russian takeover, could be repeated in Northern Europe, says Thomas Nilsen of the Independent Barents Observer. No matter whether it is conventional or hybrid warfare, he says: "We in Kirkenes are far away from Ukraine, but here as there, the same Russia is right across the border. All of the bridges we have built over the last 30 years have essentially been washed away. The Cold War is back."
A New Security System
According to a May 3 report from the Norwegian Defense Commission, it is imperative that the country now arm itself. A fine idea, says the port director of Kirkenes – since an effective army here in the north would also require an effective port, and for that, Oslo must provide the money.
Until recently, the residents of Kirkenes reaped significant benefits from the Russians, with tourists boosting the retail sector and the trawlers bringing money to the port. Should no more Russian ships be allowed to moor there, the port would lose a third of its revenues.
It used to be that fin whales would attract more attention in these parts than submarines, but that has now changed. On this particular afternoon, the Norwegian minesweeper Hinnøy, a NATO warship, is escorting the Russian trawler Proekt I all the way to the quay. The port director says there is "a handful" of usual suspects. He is planning on making it more difficult for wandering sailors in the future, with a fence and electronic security system to be installed around the port in June.
There has been no shortage of suspicious activities involving Russian citizens, says the official in charge of border surveillance at Kirkenes police headquarters, where agents from the domestic intelligence agency PST are also stationed. So far, though, those activities haven’t coalesced into a clear picture. "For now, all we can do is collect puzzle pieces. Others will have to put it together. It’s quite possible that we were too naïve for too long."
A researcher at the local branch of the University of Tromsø refers to the mood in Kirkenes as a "hangover."
The annual conference of the Arctic Economic Council is taking place right now without an official Russian delegation. They have been replaced by the remote presence of Russian opposition activists, who provide "voices from the other side of the Iron Curtain," as the organizers refer to it – as though the Soviet Union had come back to life.
For the 75th anniversary of liberation at the hands of the Red Army, celebrated in 2019, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even made the trip to Kirkenes in person. These days, though, in a new strategy paper, the Foreign Ministry in Moscow warns of "the policy of enemy states" that are "aiming at a militarization of the region." Norway is paying close attention to such rhetoric. The "threshold for a nuclear escalation" is threatening to shrink, according to a threat analysis performed by the country’s foreign intelligence agency in 2023.
Professor Tom Røseth of the Norwegian Defense University says his government must urgently learn the lessons from Ukraine’s fate – namely that the country needs to arm itself and boost deterrence. A former intelligence agent, Røseth teaches intelligence studies at the university, located in the medieval fortress of Akershus.
For our meeting, Røseth chose a city center café where an urbane clientele sips expensive drinks as they work away on their laptops. From prosperous Oslo, the problems near the Russian border seem a world away. "Still today, Norway has hardly any air defenses, very few warships, and the tanks we ordered from Germany must still be delivered," Røseth laments.
And what about the intelligence battle? Has Norway learned its lessons from the case of the exposed agent Frode Berg? Misguided chess moves in the border region are extremely dangerous, Røseth says, but at the same time, his country urgently must "deliver intelligence to NATO." Otherwise, he says, "the U.S. or Britain will do it for us, and that would only ratchet up the tensions with Russia."
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Ukraine Declares State of Emergency After Nova Kakhovka Dam Attack. Here’s What We Know So Far
The collapse of a huge dam in a Russian-occupied region of southern Ukraine has triggered flooding, with both Russia and Ukraine blaming each other for its strategic destruction.
TIME BY ARMANI SYED, JUNE 6, 2023The Nova Kakhovka dam, built in 1956 on the Dnieper River—30 km east of the city of Kherson—was breached as the result of an explosion Tuesday morning. Ukraine accuses Russian forces of blowing up the dam, which could also impact the nearby Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, while Russian officials say Ukrainian military strikes in the contested region caused the damage, according to the Associated Press.
The Russian-installed mayor of Kherson, Vladimir Leontyev, called the explosion a “terrorist act.” Russia relies on the reservoir to supply water to Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. At present, it is unclear which nation is responsible or what either side would serve to gain from damaging the dam, which is said to have already been in a state of disrepair.
The dam is 30 meters (98 ft.) in height and 3.2km (2 mi.) in width, containing a reservoir of around 18 cubic kilometers (4.3 cubic mi.) of water. As such, there are growing concerns that the sheer volume of water will severely damage nearby homes and low lying areas.
Additionally, Ukraine’s nuclear operator Energoatom said via a Telegram statement that the damage “could have negative consequences” for the Zaporizhzhia Plant, which is Europe’s biggest by way of generating capacity and relies on water to cool its facilities. For now, he wrote, the situation is “controllable.”
Residents in 10 nearby villages and parts of Kherson have been advised by the Ukrainian Interior Ministry to gather essential items and evacuate the area. Polluted water supplies and wider environmental consequences are anticipated as a result of the incident. Water levels were expected to reach a critical level within 5 hours of the collapse.
Global economy struggles amid inflation, pandemic aftershocks and war
World Bank report predicts sharp slowdown on the horizon…
The Washington Post By David J. Lynch, June 6, 2023 A pair of central bank decisions next week will shape the outlook for a wobbly global economy that the World Bank warns in a downbeat new assessment is battling stubbornly high inflation amid the pandemic’s aftermath and the war in Ukraine.
The gloomy forecast arrives days after one threat to global growth was eliminated when President Biden signed legislation Friday to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avert a potentially catastrophic government default.
But other risks remain: China’s reopening after the end of its “zero covid” policy is starting to flag, while the German economy has shrunk for two consecutive quarters, meeting one definition of a recession. Even in the United States, where growth remains resilient, most analysts anticipate that activity will ebb in the coming months.
The World Bank is scheduled to release a report Tuesday warning that the global economy is slowing dramatically as higher interest rates take a toll on both advanced and developing economies. Overall, global growth is projected to slump to an anemic 2.1 percent annual rate this year, down from 3.1 percent in 2022, and will remain “frail” through next year, according to the bank’s latest forecast.
Investors now are focused on how much more work the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank must do to stem inflation, which has declined from last year’s highs but remains elevated.
Fed officials have signaled they may pause at next week’s meeting after lifting their benchmark lending rate over the past 14 months at the fastest pace in four decades. European policymakers are expected to increase the euro zone’s key rate by a quarter percentage point when they meet next week.
“The risks for both of them are high, and they always were in this inflationary environment. There is a chance they overdo it,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist for Nationwide.
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If central bankers raise rates too much, the United States or Europe could be driven into recession. But if they fail to raise them enough, inflation will keep eroding living standards.
Striking the right balance is difficult. In the United States, Fed officials warn that the full effects of the rate increases already enacted have not yet been felt. As the Fed considers whether more increases are needed, it must also take into account other forces that are expected to slow the economy, such as tighter lending conditions in the wake of recent bank turmoil and government spending cuts under the debt ceiling deal.
In Europe, meanwhile, annual inflation dipped in May to 6.1 percent from 7 percent in April. Energy costs are falling, after a spike last year at the outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But food, alcohol and tobacco prices are soaring at a double-digit annual pace, according to the European statistical agency.
“How quickly will inflation come down? How much higher do rates have to go up? We’re obviously focused on that,” said Neil Shearing, chief economist for Capital Economics in London.
Higher interest rates represent a challenge that ripples from big economies to small ones, according to the World Bank.
When the Fed raises borrowing costs, it slows the U.S. economy by making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to obtain loans. That reduces demand for goods produced overseas, hurting growth there. Higher U.S. interest rates also encourage investment in the United States rather than elsewhere. The inflow of capital pushes up the value of the dollar, which makes it more expensive for foreign governments and businesses to repay their dollar-denominated loans.
Spillovers from Fed policy could lead to a financial crisis in the most vulnerable developing nations, which borrowed heavily over the past three years to deal with the pandemic’s health and economic consequences, the bank warned. The danger of renewed weakness in the banking industry could further constrict credit, aggravating those effects.
“The global economy remains in a precarious state,” the bank’s latest assessment concluded.
China’s performance, after ending its stringent zero-covid stance in December, has been mixed. The Chinese economy grew by 4.5 percent in the first quarter but appears to be hitting a soft patch.
China’s official purchasing managers index for May showed the manufacturing sector falling into contraction. The index for services also declined from April’s level but remained in expansion territory. Youth unemployment tops 20 percent, and the heavily indebted property sector remains a worry.
“The post-zero-covid recovery is peaking, and growth is going to slow over the second half of the year,” Shearing said.
Apple told investors last month that its China revenue fell by more than 5 percent for the six months ending April 1. Auto parts maker BorgWarner, which sells 70 percent of its made-in-China output to Chinese auto companies, said its production there has been weaker than anticipated.
So far, the U.S. economy has defied repeated recession forecasts. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s real-time forecast says output is growing at a 2 percent annual rate, an acceleration from the first quarter’s 1.3 percent.
The labor market, likewise, remains robust. In May, employers created 339,000 jobs, while government statisticians revised higher the April and March figures by a combined 93,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In Europe, meanwhile, inflation is higher and growth lower, and countries face twin-barreled strategic challenges. They must replace Russian energy with more reliable supplies while “de-risking” the trade relationship with China, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro for ING Research in Frankfurt.
“It’s very easy to see these transitions in the next one to two years will weigh on growth, putting pressure on European industry’s business model and household wealth,” he said. “It’s not like a financial-crisis-style recession. But it’s anemic growth for a couple of years.”
Both the Fed and its European counterpart are determined to quash inflation, which means interest rates will continue going up until it is clear that prices are under control.
The strong U.S. job market makes it likely that the Fed’s expected pause in June will be temporary. Since March of last year, the central bank has lifted rates from near zero to a range of 5 percent to 5.25 percent. Several Fed governors favor taking stock of the effects of tighter credit before resuming rate hikes as soon as the Fed’s end-of-July meeting.
“History shows that monetary policy works with long and variable lags, and that a year is not a long enough period for demand to feel the full effect of higher interest rates,” Philip Jefferson, a member of the Fed Board of governors, said in a recent speech.
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But some economists disagree. Jason Furman of Harvard University said consumer credit markets reacted quickly to the Fed’s change of policy, meaning there is little reason to expect lagging impacts.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage cost increased from 3.8 percent as the Fed began raising rates to 6.8 percent at the end of September. But there has been little change since then, even as the Fed raised rates five more times, Furman noted.
“The full monetary tightening happened 12 months ago and worked its way through the system,” said Furman, who was President Barack Obama’s top economic adviser.
Indeed, overall financial conditions grew tighter even before the Fed’s first rate hike, as investors reacted to public comments by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell suggesting an imminent move, according to an index maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which tracks 105 financial-market and banking-sector data points.
One wild card is the potential for lingering fallout from the regional bank turmoil of recent months. In May, the nation’s banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial loans, according to the Fed’s most recent senior loan officer survey.
A second unknown is the impact of the Treasury Department’s efforts to refill its general account, which was nearly exhausted during the debt ceiling showdown. To replenish government coffers, Treasury will auction an unusually large amount of short-term debt in the coming months. Those sales of government securities will effectively drain funds from the banking sector, further chilling credit availability.