NOW…The war is out of control. A Russian attack on the dam supplying water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant caused Crimea flooding…
The war is out of control. A Russian attack on the dam supplying water to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant caused Crimea flooding…
…“The Machiavellian war strategy in the supply chain of the natural gas market ...
…”Caution is crucial when discussing electricity generation, particularly nuclear power. Decommissioned nuclear power plants in Europe require careful evaluation and a focus on the present rather than the past. The IAEA has called for an immediate end to artillery attacks near Europe's largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia . The report suggests creating a protective zone around the plant with agreement from all relevant parties. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned the UN Security Council during an inspection visit that a catastrophic event could occur, stating, Events like this remind us of the risks associated with certain actions.
“The Machiavellian war strategy in the supply chain of the natural gas market ...
-Hopefully, …the economic giant of the East will wake up and use the unique key that its economic and political power confers on it to find a definitive way out of this situation that is wreaking havoc on the global economy.
…”Caution is crucial when discussing electricity generation, particularly nuclear power. Decommissioned nuclear power plants in Europe require careful evaluation and a focus on the present rather than the past. The IAEA has called for an immediate end to artillery attacks near Europe's largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia . The report suggests creating a protective zone around the plant with agreement from all relevant parties. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned the UN Security Council during an inspection visit that a catastrophic event could occur, stating, Events like this remind us of the risks associated with certain actions.
The name Zaporizhzhia refers to the position of the city: "beyond the rapids"—downstream or south of the Dnieper Rapids/Editing by Germán & CoUkraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam from the inside in a deliberate war crime. Russian-installed officials gave conflicting accounts, some blaming Ukrainian shelling, others saying the dam had burst on its own.
KYIV, June 6 (Reuters) and Germán & Co in Karlastad, SwedenThe Nova Kakhovka dam supplies water to Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, both under Russian control. The vast reservoir behind it is one of the main geographic features of southern Ukraine, 240 km (150 miles) long and up to 23 km (14 miles) wide. A swathe of countryside lies in the flood plain below.
The destruction of the dam creates a new humanitarian disaster in the centre of the war zone and transforms the front lines just as Ukraine is unleashing a long-awaited counteroffensive to drive Russian troops from its territory.
Russia has controlled the dam since early in the war, although Ukrainian forces recaptured the northern side of the river last year. Both sides had long accused the other of planning to destroy it.
"Russian terrorists. The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam only confirms for the whole world that they must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian land," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
Russians had "carried out an internal detonation of the structures" of the dam. "About 80 settlements are in the zone of flooding," he said on Telegram.
The Russian-installed governor of Ukraine's Kherson region accused Kyiv of striking the dam with missiles to distract attention from what he said were the failures of Ukraine's counteroffensive in the east. However, other Russian-installed officials said the dam had burst on its own due to earlier damage.
Neither side offered immediate evidence proving who was to blame.
The vast reservoir above the dam supplies fresh water to huge swathes of agricultural land, including the Crimea peninsula, which Russia claims to have annexed in 2014. It also provides cooling water for Europe's largest nuclear power plant, located in Russian-held territory on the southern bank.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Twitter it was closely monitoring the situation, but that there was "no immediate nuclear safety risk at the plant".
Russia's state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom also said the dam breach did not pose a threat for now to the plant and said the situation was being monitored.
SURGING WATERS
The water level at the town immediately adjacent to the breached dam could rise by up to 12 metres, its Russia-installed mayor, Vladimir Leontyev, said on the Telegram messaging app.
Video showed water surging through the remains of the dam - which is 30 metres (yards) tall and 3.2 km (2 miles) long.
Some 22,000 people living across 14 settlements in Ukraine's southern Kherson region are at risk of flooding, Russia's RIA news agency quoted the Moscow-installed head of the region as saying. Kherson is one of five regions, including Crimea, that Moscow claims to have annexed.
The Russian-backed governor of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, said there was a risk that water levels in the North Crimea Canal, which carries fresh water to the peninsula from the Dnipro river, could fall. Crimea had sufficient water reserves for the moment, and the level of risk would become clear in coming days.
A Russian-installed official in the town of Nova Kakhovka said residents of around 300 houses had been evacuated, state-owned news agency TASS reported. He said it would likely be impossible to repair the dam.
The dam breach came as Ukraine prepares its long-awaited counteroffensive to drive Russian forces from territory they have seized during more than 15 months of fighting.
Russia said it had thwarted another Ukrainian offensive in eastern Donetsk and inflicted heavy losses. Kyiv has maintained strict silence on the counteroffensive but has dismissed Russia's claims to have thwarted Ukrainian assaults.
Russia also launched a fresh wave of overnight air strikes on Kyiv. Ukraine said its air defence systems had downed more than 20 cruise missiles on their approach to the capital.
The Shebekino district of Russia's Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border came under renewed shelling on Tuesday, local authorities said, urging residents to take cover. Anti-government Russian fighters based in Ukraine claim to have infiltrated the area, seizing villages near the border.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency said on Telegram that Russian forces had blown up the dam "in a panic", in what it said was "an obvious act of terrorism and a war crime, which will be evidence in an international tribunal".
Zelenskiy will hold an emergency meeting about the dam's collapse, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, said on Twitter.
UKRAINIAN ATTACKS
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year in what the Kremlin expected to be a swift operation, but its forces suffered a series of defeats and regrouped in the country's east.
Tens of thousands of Russian troops dug in over the winter, besieging the eastern city of Bakhmut for months and bracing for an expected Ukrainian counterattack.
Ukrainian officials have made clear they will not comment on the start of their campaign, although in his nightly address on Monday Zelenskiy was enigmatic, hailing "the news we have been waiting for" and forward moves in Bakhmut in Donetsk.
Russia says it thwarted a major Ukrainian attack in the Donetsk region over the weekend and on Tuesday the defence ministry said a fresh Ukrainian assault had also been repelled.
Writing on Telegram, Russia's Wagner militia leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said Moscow's claims of huge Ukrainian losses were "simply wild and absurd science fiction."
The drought-1964
By Germán & Co, Published in Spanish in El Caribe, Santo Domingo, DR, September 15, 2022, and in English in EnergycentralRapid adaptation to change has always been a virtue in human beings. Why is this the case? The answer is simple because so-called human life is not a continuum of happiness and unhappiness or of stability and instability; fortunately, it is not... On the contrary, life's itinerary is complex, with encounters and mis encounters, loves and dislikes, in short .... Sometimes, our ecosystem, jaded by pollution, reveals itself by provoking natural disasters of enormous proportions... And not to mention the aberrations in so-called human beings' minds that lead to excesses that infringe all the moral canons of coexistence imaginable... Our existence is constantly subject to complex tests through extreme and always unforeseen changes, they say... which is perfectly accurate... In the unique minds of science fictions writers throughout the history of humanity, they have managed to visualize the plagues and changes in political systems that would affect us mercilessly over time...
According to the journal Plos Pathogens of the University of Kent (England), on Friday, 17 November 2019, in Wuhan, China, the SARC-COv-2 virus was detected for the first time. An organism with a simple structure composed of proteins and nucleic acids capable of reproducing only within specific living cells, using its metabolism, according to the Royal Spanish Academy (RAE) definition, all this concerning the Coronavirus.
Our affective behavior is the cruelest change humanity has undergone due to the Coronavirus This small monster surely awoke in us the paranoia of terror in a most malicious way…, let us know. Indeed it did, that being in the company of other individuals of our species, by then already submerged by the sophistic evolution of the 2.0 world, where genuine expressions of affection, handshakes and hugs... that do so much good to the intangible of the so-called soul, have been replaced by immaterial faces that flow at an infinite density (billions) per second, devoid of any merciful human contact, would cause us to die. What cruelty we have been subject to… How many of our loved ones are not whit us today? Due to a mistake made by a human error in a laboratory in the isolated province of Wuhan in the millennian China.
Not even in the mind of that genius of science fiction chronicler, James Graham Ballard (JG Ballard, Shanghai, British International Treaty 1930-London, UK 2009) in his short story The Drought (1964), did he fail to visualize what would affect in the future the colony of individuals inhabiting a small, remote and sick planet, called: Earth.
Not only the human sensory system has been affected by these new living conditions, but also the industry in all its processes, a consequence of the forced confinement of human beings, which prevented them from going to their workplaces usually, is suffering from the shortage of raw materials and components to keep the production chain in operation to supply the basic needs that man requires for his subsistence.
The lack of supply of essential goods and the excessive costs of international sea freight transport triggers the poison known as inflation. Global Accumulative Inflation from January 2020 to December 2021 went from 1.9% to no less than 3.5%, practically doubling in one calendar year. By the end of the period, the prediction is close to 7%, according to World Bank indicators. In other words, in a brief time of three years, cumulative inflation has tripled. There are not national economy or family wallet that can deal with this -financial storm-.
In addition to this adverse economic situation initially, caused by the SARC-COv-2 virus, this economic setback has been exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine since February of this year, which has hurt the fossil fuel market, specifically on the stable and safe purchase price of natural gas from the Tsarist domain. The reason for this is Russia's brilliant military strategy in the economic order in this conflict, using the systematic cuts of natural gas to its customers on the continent as a new element of warfare, known under the concept: Natural gas is the new "Russian winter" as an element of war…
This clever (Machiavellian) strategy on the part of the imperial government of Russia has deepened the economic crisis to levels unprecedented in contemporary history, accelerating the inflationary process in such a way that it has the finances of almost all nations in check, (weakened by extraordinary expenditures (issuing public debt) through subsidies and investments in the health sector aimed at coping with the pandemic times) that drift to the fragile economy of hundreds of millions of families around the world, who are unable to cope with their basic financial commitments, payment of electricity bills, settlements on mortgage commitments, etc...
There is no doubt about the concern of the political authorities regarding the current economic crisis that it is urgent and necessary to resort to emergency measures to deal with this unsustainable economic situation. However, these political actions in financial matters must be based on objective rationality and the true origin of the crisis; the current inflationary process is the result of the pandemic and the recent armed conflict. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has directly impacted the natural gas market, causing a disruption in prices due to a strategically planned restriction in supply.
Given this, the electricity industry has no direct responsibility for the background of the current economic crisis (neither does the political authority); on the contrary is one of the most affected parties because its production costs have increased exponentially. A financial intervention in the electricity industry through a cap price or increasing of taxes are not the most innovative economic measure because they (the electricity industry) do not have any tools to influence the price of natural gas. It is a governmental issue where politicians are responsible for finding mechanisms to solve the situation. In this sense, some European government officials have put forward reasonable proposals intended at contributing to the relief of electricity supply to both the population and industry without risking, firstly, social peace and, secondly, the financial health of the energy sector, which could lead to a domino effect on other sectors of the economy, based on state guarantees, which could be one of the logical alternatives at this point.
Finally, we must be incredibly careful with the so-called -all in- of all installed electricity generation capacity to the system, as far as the nuclear fleet is concerned, many nuclear power plants in Europe have not been dispatched for years, their current condition is unknown. I insist that we must be extremely cautious here. We must not look back too far: ...- In a detailed report on his visit, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that artillery attacks around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, must cease immediately. "This requires an agreement by all relevant parties for the establishment of a protective zone" around the plant, the report: "We are playing with fire, and something very, very catastrophic could happen," warned Rafael Grossi, IAEA director general to the UN Security Council, days after leading an inspection visit to the plant. (Los Angeles Time, underwritten by Hanna Arhirova of Associated Press, 6 September 2022) events to realize the risks of such an action, the worst that could happen is to throw the current crisis back into another horror, as described by the great science fiction writers of the last century.
As an epilogue to these reflections, in the search for wisdom and good sense to prevail over the empire of destruction, in a call for clemency to the gods, in an inshallah of supplication, I have to recall that China, the forgotten ally of the West during the Second World War, was one of the determining factors in bringing the conflict to an end. Now, equally, China, this undesirable economic situation is causing many financial holes in its public finances. Hopefully, out of necessity or common sense, the economic giant of the East will wake up and use the unique key that its economic and political power confers on it to find a definitive way out of this situation that is wreaking havoc on the global economy.
https://energycentral.com/c/hr/drought-1964
News round-up, June 5, 2023
Many thanks to Le Monde Diplomatique...
In light of the current tumultuous global news cycle, a unique opportunity exists for a comprehensive analysis of the global geopolitical and energy landscape. This analysis can be a valuable source of inspiration for academics and policymakers. The blog post on the publication of "Pursuing Self-Interest in a Multipolar World" in Le Monde Diplomatique on 1 April received recognition from the famed, century-old editorial magazine through a like and retweet.
The world is constantly changing, and important news is emerging every day. Here is a compilation of some of the latest global developments from Saturday and today.
"Tuesday's Chaos Reflections" editorial note was published on May 30, 2023, in this blog. Is the current war out of control? The prolonged conflict between superpowers has been unsuccessful. The principle of "an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" dates to ancient times as a well-known concept of justice. Proportionality dictates that punishment should match the harm caused by wrongdoing. Recent military actions by both superpowers, including Russia's missile strikes on Kiev and Ukraine's use of drones to target Moscow, suggest their prolonged conflict has not achieved the desired attrition outcome. The fundamental principle of checks and balances has been eroded, resulting in a feeling of hopelessness and an illogical approach to justice, whereby each action is met with an equivalent and opposing reaction. We must address these concerns and restore balance and fairness in our political systems.
On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled "Biden Demonstrates Increasing Willingness to Challenge Putin's Boundaries," suggesting the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the conflict may be in doubt. President Biden has expressed his willingness to address the limitations of Russian President Putin. Despite the potential for global conflict, this action is generating apprehension. Concurrently, the former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, cautioned that the establishment of a balance of power may potentially result in armed conflict. The implementation of well-defined principles for managing conflicts is crucial, and it evokes memories of the pre-World War I era. Is it possible for China and the United States to coexist peacefully without resorting to military conflict? Mr. Kissinger proposes the promotion of competition and dialogue between Beijing and Washington in strategic domains. The frequency of drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military has been on the rise. The attacks have exceeded the boundaries of the front line. It is possible for military operations to occur prior to Kyiv's counteroffensive. The recent fire at the Afipsky refinery, which may have been caused by a drone, has the potential to test the boundaries of President Putin's leadership.
To further complicate the understanding of the crisis, the week concluded with the publication of an article and eight digital columns on Saturday, June 3rd on Washington Post. The utilization of NATO weaponry in an attack against Russia has raised concerns regarding the level of control exercised by Kyiv.L ast week, a group of Russian fighters, who are opposed to Moscow, conducted a cross-border raid from Ukraine into the Belgorod region of Russia. According to U.S. officials, these fighters used at least four tactical vehicles that were originally provided to Ukraine by the United States and Poland. This raises concerns about the unintended use of NATO-provided equipment and Ukraine's responsibility to safeguard the material supplied by its allies. Is the Telegram application being utilized by you? Please consider subscribing to our channel to stay informed on the most recent developments regarding the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to sources familiar with U.S. intelligence findings, it has been discovered that the fighters who took MRAPs (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles) into Russia were in possession of three vehicles provided by the United States and one vehicle provided by Poland. This information has not been previously reported. The individuals in question communicated under the condition of anonymity in order to address the delicate matters. and Western officials have emphasized the importance of Ukraine's meticulous monitoring of the substantial influx of weaponry, valued in billions of dollars, into the country. The supporters of Kyiv have significantly restricted the utilization of Western armaments and machinery by Ukrainian forces in their offensive operations on Russian territory. However, the recent incursion into Russia highlights the potential for equipment to be transferred unexpectedly, resulting in oversight difficulties that are not being acknowledged by many in Washington and Kyiv. The examination of imagery by The Post suggests that Russian forces may have captured at least two MRAPs after the operation.
On June 5th, the crisis may have been further intensified by the publication of an article by POLITICO EU. The article focuses on the Dutch Minister's reaction to Beijing's stance on Ukraine at a high-level security forum. The Minister refuted the viewpoint, deeming it as "very, very false. “The Dutch Minister of Defense has refuted the Chinese assertion that Russia's military intervention in Ukraine is a result of a flawed security framework in Europe. On Saturday, China tested the diplomatic patience of European nations by attributing Russia's military intervention in Ukraine to a flawed security architecture in Europe, as articulated by a seasoned Chinese diplomat. It was incumbent upon the Dutch Minister of Defense, Kajsa Ollongren, to challenge During to former ambassador Cui Tiankai during a panel discussion. The statement is unequivocally untrue. Cui, a former envoy to the U.S. and an unofficial delegation, asserted Europe has had limited success in guaranteeing security of the continent. He recommended other nations at the forum should learn from China and Asia's approach to security. In the past, Europe was often regarded as a valuable source of knowledge and expertise in the field of During the gathering, Cui suggested that contemporary times, Europeans potentially seek inspiration from us. “We do not enforce our methods upon you; however, it is possible that may gain valuable insights stated. Our region can a valuable lesson. During the panel discussion, Cui expressed his reluctance to employ term 'failure' and instead opted for the phrase 'lack “. As stated by Cui, the Asian methods of security management and issue resolution persist. “The proposal for an Asian NATO is deemed unnecessary. "We do not wish to witness the expansion of NATO's role in our region."
Finally, in view of the persistent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is a mounting apprehension about the effectiveness of the political and military approaches adopted by both sides, particularly as the situation continues to intensify. The extant evidence suggests that the present circumstances are a matter of significant concern. Unfortunately, the prevailing approach employed in this conflict is that of retributive justice, wherein both factions’ endeavor to obtain proportional retaliation for the damage caused by the opposing party. The erosion of checks and balances within democratic institutions is a significant concern, and this trend is indicative of a global pattern. President Biden's resolute position regarding Putin's territorial ambitions exemplifies his robust leadership qualities, which are further strengthened by his age and lack of personal stakes in the matter. The individual in question desires to be remembered for his contributions towards promoting equality from a historical standpoint. Mr. Kissinger's proposition to improve communication between Beijing and Washington has not garnered extensive backing. The present crisis has been exacerbated by recent developments, such as NATO's deployment of armaments against Russia and China's claim that Russia's intervention in Ukraine was a consequence of a flawed security framework in Europe. The utilization of the —law of club— as a means of maintaining order in modern society is a topic of concern and is widely regarded as outdated.
Most Read…
When New York City Mourned R.F.K.
At Robert Kennedy’s wake, at St. Patrick’s Cathedral, New Yorkers began lining up before dawn to pay their respects.
The New Yorker By Paul Brodeur and James Stevenson, today, June 7, 1968Commodities Slide as Investors Bet on Economic Slowdown
Industrial malaise, particularly in China, is draining demand for energy and metals
WSJ By Yusuf Khan, and Joe Wallace, June 5, 2023 The tech industry was deflating. Then came ChatGPT
Last year, Silicon Valley was drowning in layoffs and dour predictions. Artificial intelligence made the gloom go away.
TWP By Gerrit De Vynck, June 4, 2023 Inside the Complicated Reality of Being America’s Oldest President
President Biden is asking voters to keep him in the White House until age 86, renewing attention to an issue that polls show troubles most Americans.
NYT By Peter Baker, Michael D. Shear, Katie Rogers and Zolan Kanno-Youngs, The reporters cover the White House for The Times. June 4, 2023Kremlin: OPEC+ important to global energy market stability
MOSCOW, June 5 (Reuters) - OPEC+, the group of leading oil-producing countries, is important for providing stability on global energy markets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, a day after the group met.
Reuters, June 5, 2023Very, very false’: Dutch minister quashes Beijing view on Ukraine at top security forum
Dutch defense chief pushes back at Chinese argument that Russia’s war on Ukraine is due to a failed security architecture in Europe.
POLITICO EU BY STUART LAU, JUNE 3, 2023 Image:by Germán & CoMany thanks to Le Monde Diplomatique...
In light of the current tumultuous global news cycle, a unique opportunity exists for a comprehensive analysis of the global geopolitical and energy landscape. This analysis can be a valuable source of inspiration for academics and policymakers. The blog post on the publication of "Pursuing Self-Interest in a Multipolar World" in Le Monde Diplomatique on 1 April received recognition from the famed, century-old editorial magazine through a like and retweet.
The world is constantly changing, and important news is emerging every day. Here is a compilation of some of the latest global developments from Saturday and today.
"Tuesday's Chaos Reflections" editorial note was published on May 30, 2023, in this blog. Is the current war out of control? The prolonged conflict between superpowers has been unsuccessful. The principle of "an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" dates to ancient times as a well-known concept of justice. Proportionality dictates that punishment should match the harm caused by wrongdoing. Recent military actions by both superpowers, including Russia's missile strikes on Kiev and Ukraine's use of drones to target Moscow, suggest their prolonged conflict has not achieved the desired attrition outcome. The fundamental principle of checks and balances has been eroded, resulting in a feeling of hopelessness and an illogical approach to justice, whereby each action is met with an equivalent and opposing reaction. We must address these concerns and restore balance and fairness in our political systems.
On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled "Biden Demonstrates Increasing Willingness to Challenge Putin's Boundaries," suggesting the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the conflict may be in doubt. President Biden has expressed his willingness to address the limitations of Russian President Putin. Despite the potential for global conflict, this action is generating apprehension. Concurrently, the former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, cautioned that the establishment of a balance of power may potentially result in armed conflict. The implementation of well-defined principles for managing conflicts is crucial, and it evokes memories of the pre-World War I era. Is it possible for China and the United States to coexist peacefully without resorting to military conflict? Mr. Kissinger proposes the promotion of competition and dialogue between Beijing and Washington in strategic domains. The frequency of drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military has been on the rise. The attacks have exceeded the boundaries of the front line. It is possible for military operations to occur prior to Kyiv's counteroffensive. The recent fire at the Afipsky refinery, which may have been caused by a drone, has the potential to test the boundaries of President Putin's leadership.
To further complicate the understanding of the crisis, the week concluded with the publication of an article and eight digital columns on Saturday, June 3rd on Washington Post. The utilization of NATO weaponry in an attack against Russia has raised concerns regarding the level of control exercised by Kyiv.L ast week, a group of Russian fighters, who are opposed to Moscow, conducted a cross-border raid from Ukraine into the Belgorod region of Russia. According to U.S. officials, these fighters used at least four tactical vehicles that were originally provided to Ukraine by the United States and Poland. This raises concerns about the unintended use of NATO-provided equipment and Ukraine's responsibility to safeguard the material supplied by its allies. Is the Telegram application being utilized by you? Please consider subscribing to our channel to stay informed on the most recent developments regarding the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to sources familiar with U.S. intelligence findings, it has been discovered that the fighters who took MRAPs (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles) into Russia were in possession of three vehicles provided by the United States and one vehicle provided by Poland. This information has not been previously reported. The individuals in question communicated under the condition of anonymity in order to address the delicate matters. and Western officials have emphasized the importance of Ukraine's meticulous monitoring of the substantial influx of weaponry, valued in billions of dollars, into the country. The supporters of Kyiv have significantly restricted the utilization of Western armaments and machinery by Ukrainian forces in their offensive operations on Russian territory. However, the recent incursion into Russia highlights the potential for equipment to be transferred unexpectedly, resulting in oversight difficulties that are not being acknowledged by many in Washington and Kyiv. The examination of imagery by The Post suggests that Russian forces may have captured at least two MRAPs after the operation.
On June 5th, the crisis may have been further intensified by the publication of an article by POLITICO EU. The article focuses on the Dutch Minister's reaction to Beijing's stance on Ukraine at a high-level security forum. The Minister refuted the viewpoint, deeming it as "very, very false. “The Dutch Minister of Defense has refuted the Chinese assertion that Russia's military intervention in Ukraine is a result of a flawed security framework in Europe. On Saturday, China tested the diplomatic patience of European nations by attributing Russia's military intervention in Ukraine to a flawed security architecture in Europe, as articulated by a seasoned Chinese diplomat. It was incumbent upon the Dutch Minister of Defense, Kajsa Ollongren, to challenge During to former ambassador Cui Tiankai during a panel discussion. The statement is unequivocally untrue. Cui, a former envoy to the U.S. and an unofficial delegation, asserted Europe has had limited success in guaranteeing security of the continent. He recommended other nations at the forum should learn from China and Asia's approach to security. In the past, Europe was often regarded as a valuable source of knowledge and expertise in the field of During the gathering, Cui suggested that contemporary times, Europeans potentially seek inspiration from us. “We do not enforce our methods upon you; however, it is possible that may gain valuable insights stated. Our region can a valuable lesson. During the panel discussion, Cui expressed his reluctance to employ term 'failure' and instead opted for the phrase 'lack “. As stated by Cui, the Asian methods of security management and issue resolution persist. “The proposal for an Asian NATO is deemed unnecessary. "We do not wish to witness the expansion of NATO's role in our region."
Finally, in view of the persistent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is a mounting apprehension about the effectiveness of the political and military approaches adopted by both sides, particularly as the situation continues to intensify. The extant evidence suggests that the present circumstances are a matter of significant concern. Unfortunately, the prevailing approach employed in this conflict is that of retributive justice, wherein both factions’ endeavor to obtain proportional retaliation for the damage caused by the opposing party. The erosion of checks and balances within democratic institutions is a significant concern, and this trend is indicative of a global pattern. President Biden's resolute position regarding Putin's territorial ambitions exemplifies his robust leadership qualities, which are further strengthened by his age and lack of personal stakes in the matter. The individual in question desires to be remembered for his contributions towards promoting equality from a historical standpoint. Mr. Kissinger's proposition to improve communication between Beijing and Washington has not garnered extensive backing. The present crisis has been exacerbated by recent developments, such as NATO's deployment of armaments against Russia and China's claim that Russia's intervention in Ukraine was a consequence of a flawed security framework in Europe. The utilization of the —law of club— as a means of maintaining order in modern society is a topic of concern and is widely regarded as outdated.
Most Read…
When New York City Mourned R.F.K.
At Robert Kennedy’s wake, at St. Patrick’s Cathedral, New Yorkers began lining up before dawn to pay their respects.
The New Yorker By Paul Brodeur and James Stevenson, today, June 7, 1968Commodities Slide as Investors Bet on Economic Slowdown
Industrial malaise, particularly in China, is draining demand for energy and metals
WSJ By Yusuf Khan, and Joe Wallace, June 5, 2023 The tech industry was deflating. Then came ChatGPT
Last year, Silicon Valley was drowning in layoffs and dour predictions. Artificial intelligence made the gloom go away.
TWP By Gerrit De Vynck, June 4, 2023 Inside the Complicated Reality of Being America’s Oldest President
President Biden is asking voters to keep him in the White House until age 86, renewing attention to an issue that polls show troubles most Americans.
NYT By Peter Baker, Michael D. Shear, Katie Rogers and Zolan Kanno-Youngs, The reporters cover the White House for The Times. June 4, 2023Kremlin: OPEC+ important to global energy market stability
MOSCOW, June 5 (Reuters) - OPEC+, the group of leading oil-producing countries, is important for providing stability on global energy markets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, a day after the group met.
Reuters, June 5, 2023Very, very false’: Dutch minister quashes Beijing view on Ukraine at top security forum
Dutch defense chief pushes back at Chinese argument that Russia’s war on Ukraine is due to a failed security architecture in Europe.
POLITICO EU BY STUART LAU, JUNE 3, 2023 
The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image by Germán & CoWhen New York City Mourned R.F.K.
At Robert Kennedy’s wake, at St. Patrick’s Cathedral, New Yorkers began lining up before dawn to pay their respects.
The New Yorker By Paul Brodeur and James Stevenson, today, June 7, 1968Shortly before five o’clock Friday morning, a gray light slipped into the city. The air was warm, the sky was hazy, and everything beneath seemed still. Two flags flanking the Fifth Avenue entrance to St. Patrick’s Cathedral hung motionless at half-staff. On the south side of Fifty-first Street, a long line of people who had gathered during the dark of night emerged in ghostly fashion from the gloom of the cathedral’s granite facade. Fatigue and sorrow could be seen on the faces. The line stretched back along Fifty-first Street to Park Avenue, and with the first glimmer of sunrise reflecting pink against the eastern sky it began to build, as, from all directions, and with almost no other sound than that of footsteps scraping softly upon pavement, the people of New York arrived to mourn the death of Robert Kennedy. Within a few minutes, the line doubled and redoubled itself until it reached Park Avenue, turned south, and began to fill up six-deep behind police barricades that had been set out on the sidewalks. Then, at five-thirty, the line began to move slowly toward the side entrance to the cathedral on Fifty-first Street near Fifth Avenue. People whose heads had been nodding in sleep awakened, straightened, and took stiff, mechanical steps ahead. An elderly Negro woman who had been sitting in a folding chair got heavily to her feet and, assisted by a young man with shoulder-length hair, started forward with a halting gait. Behind her, a man in a wheelchair propelled himself as far as the steps to the entranceway, where two policemen came to his aid and lifted him inside. On the other side of the street, a busboy in a white mess jacket sat on an ashcan before a restaurant and watched the mourners with tears streaming down his cheeks. Inside the cathedral, the line moved through the gloomy nave, down the long center aisle toward a maroon-draped catafalque that stood before the altar. The catafalque bore a plain mahogany casket that was flanked by six tall candelabras with amber tapers, and by six men who had been close to Robert Kennedy, who formed an honor guard. During the night, television crewmen had erected several large scaffolds for their equipment, and a battery of powerful floodlights illuminated the bier with a harsh and unreal glare. The mourners approached the catafalque two by two and then separated to pass it on either side. Some people crossed themselves as they went by the coffin; others reached out and touched its lid; a few bent down to brush it with their lips. At six o’clock, a priest in red vestments began to intone the words of the Mass, and many of the mourners took seats in the pews and stayed on to listen and to pray. Very few appeared to notice that Edward Kennedy, who had stayed near the bier of his brother throughout the night, was sitting on the aisle in the eleventh row, looking straight ahead. Half blinded as they emerged from the darkness of the nave and into the merciless brilliance of the television lights, the mourners seemed to pass numbly through a corridor of total exposure. They included—white and black—nuns, girls in slacks and miniskirts, workmen in shirtsleeves, matrons and children, and businessmen wearing three-button suits and carrying briefcases. The words of the priest continued to echo through the vast cathedral: “Lord have mercy, Christ have mercy, Lord have mercy...” At quarter to seven, Edward Kennedy stood, drew himself erect, and, as if relinquishing himself to a river, joined the line of mourners, walking slowly into the searing light, looking at the casket containing the body of his brother. Then, following the others, he walked through the south transept of the cathedral and out onto Fiftieth Street, where, in the rising sun, the tall buildings, trees, awnings, and other gnomons of this perpendicular city were beginning to cast the shadows that would mark the passage of the day.
It was seven years ago this month that we first saw Robert Kennedy close up, to talk to, and travel with around New York. In the last few years, and especially in recent months, he often moved in a hostile landscape; Bobby, he was called by those who didn’t know him, and some of them said it with contempt. We occasionally experienced a shock when we encountered the man himself. Lindsay always turned out to be Lindsay, Rockefeller turned out to be Rockefeller, McCarthy turned out to be McCarthy, but Kennedy bore little resemblance to most of what we read or heard about him. He was not “Bobby.” We used to see him from time to time, and then, in March, we began to follow him quite closely—to California, to Washington, to Indiana, back to New York. He was, of course, an extraordinary man, a complex one; each time we saw him there was more to see. He could never be accurately measured, especially in terms of the past; he was always in the process of becoming. He was responsive to change, and changed himself. These changes were always attributed to his driving desire to win—except by those who knew him, who were aware of his great capacity for growth, his dedication, the widening of his concern. The people around him, we found, adored him—there is no other word. They would do anything for him, go any distance—and part of it was because they were convinced he would do the same for them. We, too, grew very fond of him. Beyond his associates and friends, however, was the public, part of which mistrusted him; he could not make a move without having his motives questioned. Some weeks ago, Joseph Alsop, an old friend of his, said to us, “So many people have him absolutely wrong. They think he is cold, calculating, ruthless. Actually, he is hot-blooded, romantic, compassionate.” He was at once aggressive and reserved—a combination that was bound to lead to misunderstanding. And in Kennedy there was another rare juxtaposition of qualities: sensitivity and imagination together with a strong drive to accomplish things. He was both the reflective, perceptive man and the doer.
While we were on a ride with Robert Kennedy a couple of months ago, we made some notes. The night before, President Johnson had announced he would not run. There was a press conference in the morning, a lunch with a newspaper publisher, and then Kennedy got into his car to go to the Granada Hotel in downtown Brooklyn, where a hundred-million-dollar mortgage pool was to be announced for residents of Bedford-Stuyvesant. (He had worked hard on Bedford-Stuyvesant; one of his major projects had been to change that community, to save it.) Our notes read:
“On leaving the restaurant, Kennedy had a cigar in his hand. He still has it, but as he goes across town he rarely puffs it; it’s just there. Kennedy scans the front sections of several magazines and the New York Post, turns and exchanges a few remarks, laughs, turns back, and then stares ahead, silent. When a traffic light changes to green, Kennedy’s fingers twitch an instant before Frank Bilotti can accelerate the car. Bill Barry’s eyes close; he is exhausted. He dozes. Kennedy was up until three o’clock. Carter Burden asks, ‘Are you tired?’ Kennedy shakes his head, murmurs no, no—brushing it off as if the question is not worth consideration. On the East River Drive, a taxi-driver recognizes Kennedy and yells, ‘Give it to ’em, Bobby!’ Kennedy waves, then stares ahead again. He is deeply preoccupied now, at his most private. (When Barry wakes and offers everyone chewing gum, Kennedy does not hear him.) He abandons, piece by piece, the outside world—he puts away the magazines, the cigar is forgotten, the offer of gum is unheard, and he is utterly alone. His silence is not passive; it is intense. His face, close up, is structurally hard: there is no waste, nothing left over and not put to use; everything has been enlisted in the cause, whatever it may be. His features look dug out, jammed together, scraped away. There is an impression of almost too much going on in too many directions in too little space: the nose hooks outward, the teeth protrude, the lower lip sticks forward, the hair hangs down, the ears go up and out, the chin juts, the eyelids push down, slanting toward the cheekbones, almost covering the eyes (a surprising blue). His expression is tough, but the toughness seems largely directed toward himself, inward—a contempt for self-indulgence, for weakness. The sadness in his face, by the same token, is not sentimental sadness, which would imply self-pity, but rather, at some level, a resident, melancholy bleakness. For a public figure, Kennedy is a remarkably contained and solitary person, somewhat hesitant with intruders and, according to those who feel they know him well, shy. Silence appears to be his natural habitat. But he will suddenly break out of himself, and then he is very responsive—quick to laugh; funny in a spontaneous, understated way; generous to people who don’t ‘matter;’ considerate, sensitive to others, and direct. He is unusually direct, in both good ways and bad—directness can be a major defect for a politician. Artificial situations make him uncomfortable; he is poor at masking his reactions. He does not indulge in much public self-analysis or explanation; he is inclined to keep quiet until he has made up his mind. This makes him appear cautious, or even devious and makes his actions, when he does move, seem at times abrupt, ‘political,’ or contradictory. Missing from his makeup is the bland protective coloration of a popular politician; when Kennedy feels something, he is apt to speak out—or to remain totally silent, looking sombre or glum—rather than to display indifference or gloss it over with pleasing chatter. There is not much change in the way he talks to one person or to a thousand, except for the formality. When he speaks of right and wrong, in either setting, he does not shift gears.”
We watched him campaign. His energy was limitless. A day of relentless travel by car and plane, speeches, rallies, interviews might end toward midnight, when he and Mrs. Kennedy would stand on a high-school auditorium stage and shake hands with three or four thousand people.
(Mrs. Kennedy’s stamina, cheerfulness, and quiet patience, under difficult circumstances, were extraordinary.) Then, the next day, more of the same. He was, after each primary, exhausted—but he barely paused. Time was always against him. We saw him at his apartment the day he returned from Indiana:
“Kennedy spoke to his prospective New York State delegates in a restaurant early in the afternoon, giving an informal account of what he felt had been accomplished in Indiana and promising an intensive campaign in New York prior to the June 18th primary. Then he met with New York political leaders and others in his apartment. The apartment is still full of people: Ted Sorensen is writing in a back bedroom; another bedroom holds a small gathering; others are in the living room, others in the kitchen. Kennedy moves from one room to another, then sits for a moment in the hall as people stream back and forth past him. He is deeply worn, but nearly a month of intensive campaigning still lies ahead—Nebraska next week, then Oregon, then South Dakota and California. He rubs his face. He has pushed himself to the limit, but he does not mention his weariness. His face is gaunt, weathered; his eyes are sunken and red. He rubs his hand over his face again, as if to tear away the exhaustion. It is not something he has sympathy with, his hand is not consoling as it drags across his face—he is simply trying to get rid of an encumbrance. He responds to questions from a reporter slowly, haltingly, trying to think; the questions seem to goad him painfully to one more effort. In the wake of his success, he admits there are great areas of loss—primarily for his family, and in his privacy. ‘I think... I think… I would make this one effort... and if it fails I would go back to my children.... If you bring children into the world, you should stay with them, see them through....’ He had once thought of teaching, or of starting a new kind of project in the Mississippi Delta, or of working with the Indians, but now he doesn’t know. ‘I think about it,’ he says slowly. ‘I think about it.... I’m not sure.’ The hand drags across the face again, his eyes closed. He mentions privacy. ‘It would be nice taking a walk sometime without someone taking a picture of you taking a walk....’ More people come through the door. Kennedy looks up, gets quickly to his feet, and greets them, alert again, moving.”
We remember an April afternoon at Hickory Hill, in McLean, Virginia, just before Indiana. He had come home for a few hours with his family. He sat in the dining room, eating a sandwich and discussing the farm problems of Indiana with an agricultural expert. A small child sat at the table with him, gazing silently at his father as the talk revolved around hog prices. Other children flowed through the dining room, and each time one came past he would reach out—still listening, not taking his eyes from the expert—and hold, for a moment, his or her hand. After lunch, he played with each child. There was a gentleness in him, a capacity for love, that was not ordinarily revealed in print or in the pictures people saw of him. “Let us dedicate ourselves to what the Greeks wrote so many years ago,” he told a group of Negroes in a parking lot in Indianapolis on the cold, bitter night Martin Luther King was slain. “To tame the savageness of man and make gentle the life of the world.”
The world he lived in was changing fast; the past was less than useless as a guide—it was an obstacle. A man was needed who instinctively responded to what was real—a truly compassionate man with a sympathy for people and for people’s need for change. As he walked, his head was always bent forward; everything for him was ahead. Now he is dead, and we see the films, over and over: he lies on the floor, his head cupped in the hands of others. He will no longer bring to bear on those forces he took such care to understand—the angry, divisive forces of our time—his vitality, his sympathy, his warm concern. His death is, in a word he used so often, unacceptable.
Image by Germán & CoCommodities Slide as Investors Bet on Economic Slowdown
Industrial malaise, particularly in China, is draining demand for energy and metals
WSJ By Yusuf Khan, and Joe Wallace, June 5, 2023 Commodity prices are in retreat, signaling a slowdown in the world economy but lending central banks a hand in their fight against inflation.
The S&P GSCI commodities index has fallen about 11% so far this year through Friday, as prices for energy, metals, grains and other raw materials have retreated. Crude oil is close to its lowest levels since just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—even after Saudi Arabia’s weekend decision to cut output boosted prices early Monday.
Wheat hasn’t been this cheap since 2020 and natural gas has taken a tumble in Europe. Almost every commodity besides weather-affected sugar, cocoa and coffee has pulled back. Niche materials such as glass have fallen. Copper, a bellwether for the global economy because of its use in everything from buildings to cars, has slipped 1.3% this year.
A big driver is sluggish activity in manufacturing, particularly in China, the world’s biggest consumer of metals and second-biggest user of oil.
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Traders’ hopes for a postpandemic surge in Chinese demand for industrial materials and energy proved wide of the mark. That is partly because China’s recovery has been led by services, rather than the resource-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors that powered previous upswings.
“Industrial activity is subdued,” said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics. Chinese imports of semirefined copper dropped 13% year-over-year in the first four months of 2023, she said.
In the U.S. and Europe, too, manufacturers are in a funk, even as economies grow overall thanks to a stronger services sector. The rise of hybrid working has made economies less oil-dependent, some economists say.
The commodity declines mark a reversal from a year ago, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent prices for energy and grains soaring. That surge stoked inflation in the West, encouraging the Federal Reserve and its peers to jack up interest rates, and led to fuel and food shortages in parts of Africa and Asia.
The selloffs largely take prices back down to more typical levels, rather than depressed ones indicative of serious oversupply or an economic shock. For instance, early on Monday, Brent crude oil was trading at close to $78 a barrel, which would be near the high end of the range in which the benchmark traded between 2015 and early 2022.
The drops nonetheless point to slowing growth, if not an outright recession in which economic activity contracts.
“In a recession, demand for commodities lowers,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX Group, a brokerage. “We’re finally getting to data showing decreased demand for commodities.”
A silver lining for consumers and financial markets is that cheaper energy has started to feed into slower inflation. That could eventually help the Fed, and other monetary authorities such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, to lower rates. For now, though, other drivers of inflation are sufficiently strong that investors expect further rate rises.
Higher rates are likely to curb demand for commodities even more, said Darwei Kung, who runs commodities investments at DWS Group—one reason why he is betting on lower energy and industrial-metal prices.
Losers from the decline include commodity companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron. The energy sector is the worst performer in the S&P 500 so far this year, having been the best in 2022.
Some states that depend on oil-and-gas sales to sustain their budgets, notably Russia and Gulf oil producers, have experienced difficulties. Saudi Arabia said Sunday that it would cut a million barrels from its daily oil output in an effort to raise prices, after a contentious meeting at which other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to extend existing curbs.
Consumers will enjoy the benefits of lower wholesale prices at varying speeds. In the U.S., for instance, lower crude prices quickly feed through to the pump. Average gas prices stand at $3.55 a gallon, according to AAA, down from about $4.82 a year ago.
In Europe, households and businesses won’t feel the drop in wholesale gas and power prices so fast, in part because governments put in policies to ease the pain on the way up.
And food prices are still galloping higher, even though wholesale wheat is down 22% this year, aided by bumper harvests in Russia and Australia, and exports from Ukraine under the Black Sea grain deal.
Many food producers locked in prices near the peak of the market because they feared losing access to ingredients. “It’s a long supply chain for a lot of these supermarkets,” said Dave Whitcomb, founder of Peak Trading Research.
Some analysts see commodity prices leveling off rather than falling further. They expect OPEC+ cuts to drain oil supplies in the second half of the year. Metals could get a boost from a splurge in spending on the electricity grid in China, and in the longer term from demand for materials needed for the energy transition.
For now, though, many say high interest rates and industrial malaise could bring more pressure. “Central banks in developed nations are pushing on the brakes pretty hard,” said Nitesh Shah, head of commodities research at exchange-traded-fund provider WisdomTree.
Illustration by Elena Lacey/The Washington PostThe tech industry was deflating. Then came ChatGPT
Last year, Silicon Valley was drowning in layoffs and dour predictions. Artificial intelligence made the gloom go away.
TWP By Gerrit De Vynck, June 4, 2023 SAN FRANCISCO — A year ago, the mood in Silicon Valley was dour. Big Tech stocks were falling, the cryptocurrency bubble had popped, and a wave of layoffs was beginning to sweep through the industry.
Since then, venture capitalists have been throwing money at AI start-ups, investing over $11 billion in May alone, according to data firm PitchBook, an increase of 86 percent over the same month last year. Companies from Moderna to Heinz have mentioned AI initiatives on recent earnings calls. And last week, AI chipmaker Nvidia became one of only a handful of companies in the world to hit $1 trillion in value.
In San Francisco, it’s suddenly impossible to escape the AI hysteria. In bars and restaurants, people are conversing about using ChatGPT and whether AI will take their jobs — or take over the world. AI is one of the only fields here still hiring, and firms are paying huge salaries for the expertise. Workers here are retraining to specialize in the field.
The new AI gold rush — sparked in large part by the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in November — is thanks to generative AI, which uses complex algorithms trained on trillions of words and images from the open internet to produce text, images and audio.
“The improvement in quality was much greater than expected,” Dan Wang, a business professor at Columbia University who studies the tech industry, said of the emergence of generative AI. “That took folks by surprise and also released the imaginations of both existing entrepreneurs and aspiring entrepreneurs.”
Following OpenAI’s release of ChatGPT, Microsoft and Google joined the arms race. While they had previously showed relative caution about launching experimental AI tools to real people, both companies suddenly raced to compete by throwing text generators into their core products, including Microsoft Word and Google Search.
“We are at an exciting inflection point,” Pichai said at the conference. “We are reimagining all our core products.”
Facebook and Amazon have also been trumpeting their own AI work, and Apple is expected to spotlight AI research during its big product launch event this week.
Companies are also putting money where their mouths are, and one of the biggest beneficiaries so far is Nvidia.
The company’s video game computer chips have been used by researchers and companies for several years to help them run the massive and complicated algorithms needed to train cutting-edge AI programs. The company began making specialized products and software for AI and had already seen its stock price quadruple from the end of 2019 until the beginning of 2023.
But last week, it announced that it expected to sell $11 billion of new chips in the second quarter of this year, a full $4 billion more than Wall Street analysts had expected. The stock rocketed up 24 percent. It closed with a market valuation of $971.4 billion on Friday.
That’s within spitting range of Amazon, which is worth $1.26 trillion. Nvidia Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress called ChatGPT’s launch a new “iPhone moment” — comparing it to when the world realized mobile phones would completely change how people use computers.
“What can we say other than just ‘Wow!’” C.J. Muse, an analyst with Evercore said in a client note. “We’ve simply never seen a beat like this … ever.” Big companies and start-ups alike are “clamoring” to buy Nvidia’s products, Muse said.
Tech stocks have rallied across the board, a whiplash return to growth after analysts declared the 10-year bull market was finally over. In 2022, the Nasdaq 100, a stock market index dominated by the biggest tech companies, lost an entire third of its value, falling 33 percent in a massive erasure of wealth that had been built up over the past decade. So far in 2023, the Nasdaq 100 is already up 31 percent.
Even Meta, which changed its name from Facebook to signal its commitment to the metaverse, or virtual reality tech, has been pushing AI among its workers to the extent that some of them asked at a company meeting whether the metaverse was still a priority. Amazon executives have assured their own employees the company is working on major AI initiatives, too.
The start-up ecosystem is rebounding back to optimism as well, at least for those focused on AI.
“VC firms compete for access to hot AI deals while eschewing unprofitable conventional software companies,” said Brendan Burke, an analyst with PitchBook. “AI start-ups experience founder-friendly conditions not extended to the rest of the tech ecosystem.”
Around $12.5 billion in investments have gone into generative AI start-ups this year so far, compared with only $4.5 billion invested in the field in all of 2022, Burke said.
Suvrat Bhooshan, a former AI researcher at Meta and founder and CEO of Gan.ai, a start-up that lets people automatically create customized videos of themselves, just raised $5.25 million from investors including Sequoia Capital and Emergent Ventures. The deal came together fast, with some investors giving him full-fledged term sheets just a week after initial introductions, Bhooshan said.
He isn’t the only former Big Tech AI worker who left to begin their own company, Bhooshan said. In the past two years, three or four of the seven people on his team at Meta have left to do their own thing, he said. The same is happening across the industry, showing the desire among AI workers to take advantage of the boom in venture investment to start their own companies.
“The entire transformers team from Google left to start their own company,” Bhooshan said, referring to the Google researchers who wrote the paper on “transformers,” a key aspect of the current crop of generative AI.
The optimism in the AI sector contrasts with the massive layoffs that have been rocking the industry for months. Thousands of tech workers are still out of a job after the massive wave of layoffs that rolled through dozens of start-ups, as well as Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Google over the past year. Higher interest rates, which triggered the shakiness for tech companies used to borrowing huge sums to fund their ever-increasing growth, aren’t going away.
And things outside AI can continue to be glum. The number of deals and the valuations start-ups were scoring outside of AI continued to drop through the beginning of the year, with the median late-stage start-up valuation dropping 40 percent from the same time last year, according to PitchBook.
Employees at Google and elsewhere are worrying about more layoffs. Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse spooked tech investors and made it harder for start-ups to get the debt they need to get their businesses off the ground.
House prices are slowly sinking in San Francisco, and the commercial rental market is in crisis, showing the overall impact on the economy.
AI won’t change that overnight, said Wang, the Columbia business professor.
“It’s really exciting,” he said. “But its really hard to say that it’s the kind of thing that will lead the charge back into a bull market.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
President Biden just embarked on a campaign asking voters to keep him in the White House four years longer.Credit...Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times/Editing by Germán & CoInside the Complicated Reality of Being America’s Oldest President
President Biden is asking voters to keep him in the White House until age 86, renewing attention to an issue that polls show troubles most Americans.
NYT By Peter Baker, Michael D. Shear, Katie Rogers and Zolan Kanno-Youngs, The reporters cover the White House for The Times. June 4, 2023There was the time last winter when President Biden was awakened at 3 a.m. while on a trip to Asia and told that a missile had struck Poland, touching off a panic that Russia might have expanded the war in Ukraine to a NATO ally. Within hours in the middle of the night, Mr. Biden consulted his top advisers, called the president of Poland and the NATO secretary general, and gathered fellow world leaders to deal with the crisis.
And then there was the time a few weeks ago when the president was hosting children for Take Your Child to Work Day and became mixed up as he tried to list his grandchildren. “So, let me see. I got one in New York, two in Philadelphia — or is it three? No, three, because I got one granddaughter who is — I don’t know. You’re confusing me.” He also drew a blank when asked the last country he had visited and the name of a favorite movie.
The two Joe Bidens coexist in the same octogenarian president: Sharp and wise at critical moments, the product of decades of seasoning, able to rise to the occasion even in the dead of night to confront a dangerous world. Yet a little slower, a little softer, a little harder of hearing, a little more tentative in his walk, a little more prone to occasional lapses of memory in ways that feel familiar to anyone who has reached their ninth decade or has a parent who has.
The complicated reality of America’s oldest president was encapsulated on Thursday as Congress approved a bipartisan deal he brokered to avoid a national default. Even Speaker Kevin McCarthy testified that Mr. Biden had been “very professional, very smart, very tough” during their talks. Yet just before the voting got underway, Mr. Biden tripped over a sandbag at the Air Force Academy commencement, plunging to the ground. The video went viral, his supporters cringed and his critics pounced.
Anyone can trip at any age, but for an 80-year-old president, it inevitably raises unwelcome questions. If it were anyone else, the signs of age might not be notable. But Mr. Biden is the chief executive of the world’s most powerful nation and has just embarked on a campaign asking voters to keep him in the White House until age 86, drawing more attention to an issue that polls show troubles most Americans and is the source of enormous anxiety among party leaders.
“You say I’m ancient?” Mr. Biden said at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in April. “I say I’m wise.”Credit...Yuri Gripas for The New York Times
The portrait that emerges from months of interviews with dozens of current and former officials and others who have spent time with him lies somewhere between the partisan cartoon of an addled and easily manipulated fogy promoted by Republicans and the image spread by his staff of a president in aviator shades commanding the world stage and governing with vigor.
It is one of a man who has slowed with age in ways that are more pronounced than just the graying hair common to most recent presidents during their time in office. Mr. Biden sometimes mangles his words and looks older than he used to because of his stiff gait and thinning voice.
Yet people who deal with him regularly, including some of his adversaries, say he remains sharp and commanding in private meetings. Diplomats share stories of trips to places like Ukraine, Japan, Egypt, Cambodia and Indonesia in which he often outlasts younger colleagues. Democratic lawmakers point to a long list of accomplishments as proof that he still gets the job done.
His verbal miscues are nothing new, friends note; he has struggled throughout his life with a stutter and was a “gaffe machine,” to use his own term, long before he entered Social Security years. Advisers said his judgment is as good as ever. So many of them use the phrase “sharp as a tack” to describe him that it has become something of a mantra.
Mr. Biden says age is a legitimate issue but maintains that his longevity is an asset, not a liability. “You say I’m ancient?” he said at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in April. “I say I’m wise.”
Still, few people fail to notice the changes in one of the nation’s most public people. As vice president a dozen years ago, Mr. Biden engaged in energetic squirt gun battles each summer with the children of aides and reporters. More than a decade later, he shuffled stiffly across the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Ala., to mark the anniversary of Bloody Sunday.
Polls indicate the president’s age is a top concern of Americans, including Democrats. During a recent New York Times focus group, several voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 expressed worry, with one saying: “I’ve just seen the blank stare at times, when he’s either giving a speech or addressing a crowd. It seems like he loses his train of thought.”
Unease about Mr. Biden’s age suffuses Democratic circles. One prominent Wall Street Democrat, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid offending the White House, noted that among party donors it was all anyone was talking about. At a small dinner earlier this year of former Democratic senators and governors, all of them in Mr. Biden’s generation, everyone at the table agreed he was too old to run again. Local leaders often call the White House to inquire about his health.
In private, some officials acknowledge that they make what they consider reasonable accommodations not to physically tax an aging president. His staff schedules most of his public appearances between noon and 4 p.m. and leaves him alone on weekends as much as possible. Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, Mr. Biden’s deputy White House chief of staff, though, insisted his age has not forced changes to his schedule. “Nothing beyond what is done for any president regardless of their age,” she said.
A study of Mr. Biden’s schedule based on data compiled by Axios and expanded by The New York Times found that Mr. Biden has a similar morning cadence as the president he served, Barack Obama. Neither had many public events before 10 a.m., just 4 percent in Mr. Obama’s last year in office and 5 percent in Mr. Biden’s first two and a half years. But the real difference came in the evening. Mr. Obama was twice as likely to do public events after 6 p.m. compared with Mr. Biden, 17 percent to 9 percent.
Aides limit exposing the president to news media interviews when he could make a politically damaging mistake. He has given just a fourth of the interviews Donald J. Trump did in the same time period and a fifth of Mr. Obama’s interviews — and none at all to reporters from a major newspaper. Mr. Biden has not given an interview to the news department of The Times, unlike every president since at least Franklin D. Roosevelt other than Dwight D. Eisenhower. And in the past 100 years, only Ronald Reagan and Richard M. Nixon have subjected themselves to as few news conferences.
White House officials have not made Mr. Biden’s doctor available for questioning, as previous presidents have. In February, Kevin C. O’Connor, the White House physician, issued a five-page letter stating that Mr. Biden is “fit for duty, and fully executes all of his responsibilities without any exemptions or accommodations.”
But he also wrote that the president’s tendency to walk stiffly is “in fact a result of degenerative (‘wear and tear’)” changes in his spine, and partly the result of “tighter hamstrings and calves.” The letter said there were “no findings which would be consistent with” a neurological disorder like stroke, multiple sclerosis or Parkinson’s disease. He takes medicine for atrial fibrillation, cholesterol, heartburn, asthma and allergies.
Like many his age, Mr. Biden repeats phrases and retells the same hoary, often fact-challenged stories again and again. He can be quirky; when children visit, he may randomly pull a book of William Butler Yeats off his desk and start reading Irish poetry to them.
At the same time, he is trim and fit, exercises five days a week and does not drink. He has at times exhibited striking stamina, such as when he flew to Poland then boarded a nine-hour train ride to make a secret visit to Kyiv, spent hours on the ground, then endured another nine-hour train ride and a flight to Warsaw. A study of his schedule by Mr. Biden’s aides shows that he has traveled slightly more in the first few months of his third year in office than Mr. Obama did in his.
“Does he ramble? Yes, he does,” said Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey, a Democrat who categorically rejects the idea that Mr. Biden is too old to be president. “Has he always rambled? Yes, he has. Public and private. He’s the same guy. He’s literally — I’m not saying this lightly. I don’t know anyone else in my life who is so much the same guy privately as he is publicly.”
Some friends bristle at the attention to his age. “I think the reason this is an issue is primarily because of the media talking about it constantly,” said former Senator Ted Kaufman, a longtime adviser to Mr. Biden from Delaware. “I do not see anything in my dealings with him that age is a problem. He’s done more than any president has been able to do in my lifetime.”
Andrew Bates, a White House spokesman, noted that Republican hard-liners were grousing that Mr. Biden had gotten the better of Mr. McCarthy in the fiscal deal. “It’s telling that the same extreme MAGA members of Congress who’ve been talking about his age complained this week that he outsmarted them on the budget agreement,” Mr. Bates said.
The question of Mr. Biden’s age does not come in isolation, of course. Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican challenger, is just four years younger and was the oldest president in history until Mr. Biden succeeded him. If Mr. Trump were to win next year, he would be 82 at the end of his term, older than Mr. Biden will be at the end of this one.
While in office, Mr. Trump generated concerns about his mental acuity and physical condition. He did not exercise, his diet leaned heavily on cheeseburgers and steak and he officially tipped the scales at 244 pounds, a weight formally deemed obese for his height.
After complaining that he was overscheduled with morning meetings, Mr. Trump stopped showing up at the Oval Office until 11 or 11:30 a.m. each day, staying in the residence to watch television, make phone calls or send out incendiary tweets. During an appearance at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, he had trouble lifting a glass of water and seemed to have trouble making his way down a modest ramp.
Most striking was Mr. Trump’s cognitive performance. He was erratic and tended to ramble; experts found that he had grown less articulate and that his vocabulary had shrunk since his younger days. Aides said privately that Mr. Trump had trouble processing information and distinguishing fact from fiction. His second chief of staff, John F. Kelly, bought a book analyzing Mr. Trump’s psychological health to understand him better, and several cabinet secretaries concerned that he might be mentally unfit discussed invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him.
But perhaps because his bombastic volume conveys energy, Mr. Trump’s issues are not associated with age in the public mind as much as Mr. Biden’s are. In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 73 percent said Mr. Biden is too old to be in office, compared with 51 percent who said the same of Mr. Trump.
Mr. Biden manages his day with more discipline than his predecessor. Jill Biden, who teaches at Northern Virginia Community College, gets up around 6 a.m. while the president wakes an hour later, according to accounts he has given. Mr. Biden has told aides that their cat sometimes wakes him in the middle of the night by walking across his face.
By 7:20 a.m., the first lady leaves for work. Mr. Biden works out at 8 a.m.; he has a Peloton bicycle in the residence and is known to watch shows like “Morning Joe” on MSNBC. He arrives at the Oval Office by 9 a.m. for a morning usually filled with meetings. For lunch, there is a rotation of salad, soup and sandwiches.
Following afternoon events, the president returns to the residence around 6:45 p.m. For dinner, pasta is a favorite. In fact, one former official said, whenever he travels, aides make sure there is always red sauce on hand for pasta to finish his day — even as he balks at the salmon that his wife urges on him.
From 8 p.m., the Bidens often read their briefing books together in the living room of the residence. The first lady typically turns in at 10:30 p.m. and the president follows a half-hour later.
Aides say it is clear he actually reads the briefing books because of the questions that follow. “There’s no one who is better at asking questions to get to the bottom of an issue, calling your bluff, asking the tough questions,” said Stefanie Feldman, the White House staff secretary. “He asks just as tough questions today as he did 10 years ago.”
Some who accompany him overseas express astonishment at his ability to keep up. When Italy’s new leader pushed for a meeting while the president was in Poland, he readily agreed to add it to the already packed schedule. During a trip to Ireland, people with him said he was energized and wanted to talk at length on Air Force One rather than rest.
Still, after fatiguing days on the road, he skipped dinner with world leaders in Indonesia last year and again in Japan in May. Others who have known him for years said privately that they have noticed small changes. When he sits down, one former official said, he usually places a hand on his desk to hold his weight and rarely springs back up with his old energy.
He speaks so softly that he can be hard to hear. For speeches, aides give him a hand-held microphone to hold close to his mouth to amplify his voice even when standing at a lectern with mounted microphones.
Yet aides said that while he can momentarily forget a name or fact, he retains a formidable memory for detail. Preparing to travel to Shanksville, Pa., on the 20th anniversary of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, he became frustrated that officials had given him the wrong plan for his movements. He had been to the memorial before and knew the plan made no sense because he remembered the layout of the grounds.
White House officials voice aggravation that concern about age is inflated by pictures on the internet that are sometimes faked or highly distorted. Every week, strategists conduct a word cloud analysis with a panel of voters asking what they had heard about the president, good or bad. After Mr. Biden’s foot got caught in the toe cage of his bicycle and he tumbled over last year, the two words in the bad-word cloud for weeks were “bike fell” — all the more frustrating for aides who noted that Mr. Trump hardly seemed capable of even riding a bike.
Mr. Biden lately has turned to self-deprecating humor to defuse the issue, taking a cue from Mr. Reagan, who won re-election in 1984 at age 73 in part with a well-timed debate quip about not exploiting “my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”
Some who accompany Mr. Biden overseas express astonishment at his ability to keep up. Still, after fatiguing days on the road, he skipped dinner with world leaders in Indonesia last year and again in Japan in May.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times
At the correspondents’ dinner, Mr. Biden assured the audience that he supported the First Amendment, and “not just because my good friend Jimmy Madison wrote it.” During the Take Your Child to Work Day event, he looked back on “when I was younger, 120 years ago.”
And at the Air Force Academy a few days ago, Mr. Biden joked that “when I was graduating from high school 300 years ago, I applied to the Naval Academy.” After tripping on the sandbag, he sought to laugh that off too. “I got sandbagged,” he said.
Image by Germán & CoKremlin: OPEC+ important to global energy market stability
Reuters, June 5, 2023MOSCOW, June 5 (Reuters) - OPEC+, the group of leading oil-producing countries, is important for providing stability on global energy markets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, a day after the group met.
OPEC+ pumps around 40% of the world's crude and has put in place cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day, amounting to 3.6% of global demand.
"The Russian Federation is a member of the joint (OPEC+) understanding. The OPEC+ format continues its work, there are common agreements that, of course, everyone will follow," Peskov told a daily conference call with reporters.
"Of course, this format retains its importance and its significance for ensuring stability in international energy markets."
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, decided on Sunday after seven hours of talks to reduce overall production targets from 2024 by a further 1.4 million bpd in total.
Saudi Arabia will make a deep cut to its output in July on top of a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 as the group seeks to boost flagging oil prices.
Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren challenged the Chinese interpretation of the war in Ukraine | Thomas Niedermueller/Editing by Germán & Co‘Very, very false’: Dutch minister quashes Beijing view on Ukraine at top security forum
Dutch defense chief pushes back at Chinese argument that Russia’s war on Ukraine is due to a failed security architecture in Europe.
POLITICO EU BY STUART LAU, JUNE 3, 2023 SINGAPORE — China put European patience to the test on Saturday, with a seasoned Chinese diplomat attributing Russia’s war on Ukraine to a failed security architecture in Europe.
It fell to Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren to challenge that very Chinese interpretation.
“I was actually a little bit surprised to hear it,” Ollongren told POLITICO in an interview moments after she made an impromptu rebuttal of ex-ambassador Cui Tiankai on a panel at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. “It’s very, very false.”
Cui, a former envoy to the U.S. and unofficially an adviser to the Chinese delegation at this top Asian security forum, told the event on Saturday that Europe had showed little success in ensuring the Continent’s security, and suggested that the other nations at the forum should take a lesson from China and Asia instead.
“We used to look to Europe, for their experience in regional integration. But nowadays, maybe people in Europe instead could look to us,” Cui told the gathering. “We don’t impose our ways on you, but maybe you can learn something useful from our experience, from our success,” he said.
“And our region also should learn something very important — from your lack of success. I don’t want to use the word ‘failure,’ [so] a lack of success,” said Cui, who sat next to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov on the panel.
“We will continue with our Asian ways of managing our security situation and managing all the issues,” Cui said. “We don’t need an Asian NATO. We’ll don’t want to see expansion of NATO’s role in our region.”
While the Ukrainian minister steered clear of criticizing Beijing — saying only that Ukraine needed to win the war, not negotiate — Ollongren hit back at Cui’s assertion.
“There was a suggestion by the ambassador that Europe has not succeeded in managing its security very well, because of the war in Ukraine. Of course, I understand there’s a war in Ukraine — but I think it’s not the result of mismanaging our security situation in Europe. It’s the result of not respecting the way we want to manage security in Europe,” the Dutch minister said.
“I think also, there is no lack of respect for China or lack of respect to the culture of China in Europe; we have very high respect for that,” she said.
Ollongren, whose country has taken an increasingly critical stance on China over ties with Russia and tech advancement in military fields, added after the panel that what Cui had presented was a “false perception of the situation.”
“You cannot blame Europe or European countries for Russia’s illegally invading Ukraine,” she said.
Ollongren added that since Cui is no longer an ambassador, she would wait for Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu to spell out the official position in his keynote address on Sunday.
AES Hawaii's transition to all-green energy is reminiscent of Kafka's metamorphosis…
AES Hawaii's transition to all-green energy is reminiscent of Kafka's metamorphosis…
In February 2016, National Geographic published an article discussing the occurrence of Hawaii's largest waves in years attributed to changing weather patterns. This phenomenon is a consequence of the significant storms generated in the Pacific Ocean due to the El Niño phenomenon.
BY GERMÁN & C0, KARLSTAD, SWEDEN, JUNE 2, 2023
Hawaii is a group of volcanic islands in the central Pacific Ocean. The distance between the islands and San Francisco is 2,397 miles, while between the islands and Manila is 5,293. The capital of Hawaii is located on the island of Oahu and is known as Honolulu. During the 19th century, the population of Hawaii experienced a significant increase, leading to the establishment of a plantation system that focused on the cultivation of sugar cane, coffee, and pineapples. The annexation of the territory by the United States occurred in 1898. On December 7, 1941, Pearl Harbor was attacked by Japanese fighter planes, which resulted in the United States' entry into World War II. Hawaii achieved statehood on August 21, 1959, becoming the 50th state of the United States. Hawaii, boasting a land area of 28,412 square kilometers and a population exceeding 1.4 million, remains a globally sought-after tourist destination.
AES Hawaii a surreal transformation reminiscent of Franz Kafka's literary work…
Source:In January 2019, AES and Kaua‘i Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC) commissioned what at the time was considered the world’s largest solar PV + Battery Energy Storage (BESS) facility, the 28 MWdc PV + 100 MWh BESS Lāwa‘i facility on Kaua‘i. We worked closely with the community and the landowner to successfully develop the facility, which delivers up to 11% of Kaua‘i's energy needs and helped KIUC surpass its goal of 50% renewable energy generation four years ahead of schedule/Editing by Germán & Co
Source: In January 2019, AES and Kaua‘i Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC) commissioned what at the time was considered the world’s largest solar PV + Battery Energy Storage (BESS) facility, the 28 MWdc PV + 100 MWh BESS Lāwa‘i facility on Kaua‘i. We worked closely with the community and the landowner to successfully develop the facility, which delivers up to 11% of Kaua‘i's energy needs and helped KIUC surpass its goal of 50% renewable energy generation four years ahead of schedule.In February 2016, National Geographic published an article discussing the occurrence of Hawaii's largest waves in years attributed to changing weather patterns. This phenomenon is a consequence of the significant storms generated in the Pacific Ocean due to the El Niño phenomenon.
By Germán & C0, Karlstad, Sweden, June 2, 2023Hawaii is a group of volcanic islands in the central Pacific Ocean. The distance between the islands and San Francisco is 2,397 miles, while between the islands and Manila is 5,293. The capital of Hawaii is located on the island of Oahu and is known as Honolulu. During the 19th century, the population of Hawaii experienced a significant increase, leading to the establishment of a plantation system that focused on the cultivation of sugar cane, coffee, and pineapples. The annexation of the territory by the United States occurred in 1898. On December 7, 1941, Pearl Harbor was attacked by Japanese fighter planes, which resulted in the United States' entry into World War II. Hawaii achieved statehood on August 21, 1959, becoming the 50th state of the United States. Hawaii, boasting a land area of 28,412 square kilometers and a population exceeding 1.4 million, remains a globally sought-after tourist destination.
AES Hawaii a surreal transformation reminiscent of Franz Kafka's literary work…
Bernerd Da Santos, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and President, RenewablesBefore delving into the history of AES Hawaii, whit Bernerd Da Santos, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and President, Renewables, a Venezuelan native, joined AES in 2000 and revolutionized the company's operations to offer eco-friendly and innovative energy solutions. The person updated safety, environmental, and supply chain systems digitized IT processes, and created four Smart Centers. He has global experience in corporate finance and business transformation for energy companies worldwide. Bernard is AES's EVP, COO, and President of Renewables. He transformed AES operations to provide customers with safer, more reliable, greener energy solutions.
In recent years, the energy sector has shifted, particularly in response to Russia's incursion into Ukraine. The military operation caused a significant disruption in the natural gas supply to Europe, thereby underscoring the vulnerability of the region's energy security. Amidst the current crisis, there has been a noticeable trend towards adopting renewable energy sources, a reassuring development. The transition towards sustainable alternatives is paramount in mitigating our reliance on non-renewable energy sources and achieving a more sustainable energy future. It is imperative to prioritize safeguarding the environment and future generations interests by adopting sustainable and renewable energy solutions.
Over the past three decades, AES Hawaii has experienced substantial transformations. The modifications emulate the paradise island ambience of Hawaii, renowned for its colossal waves that attract visitors from around the world, as well as the popular television series Hawaii Five-0…
It is noteworthy to bear in mind that Hawaii exhibits the highest dependence on imported fossil fuels compared to all other states in the United States, thereby emphasizing the criticality of attaining its clean energy objectives. The significance of this matter extends beyond the state's economy, as it also pertains to the preservation of the environment and the assurance of energy security.
To attain the objectives set for the year 2045…
As Hawaii strives to reach a complete transition to renewable energy sources by 2045, collaborative efforts with utilities, communities, landowners, and customers are being pursued to provide ecologically sustainable and technologically advanced energy solutions. Through joint efforts with local leaders and utilities leading the way in the clean energy transition, such as Kauaʻi Island Utility Cooperative and the Hawaiian Electric Companies, we actively develop innovative and sustainable energy solutions. The objective of this initiative is to accelerate the process of energy transition in Hawaiʻi while ensuring that all customers across the state have access to electricity prices that are both dependable and economical.
“The objective of this initiative is to expedite Hawaii's shift towards a future that is free of carbon emissions. Since the 1980s, there has been a concerted effort to address the increasing demand for energy in the region. The Barbers Point power plant, powered by coal and has a capacity of 180 MW, was established on the island of Oahu in 1992 and has remained operational ever since. Over three decades, the power plant has consistently delivered reliable and secure energy, satisfying up to 20% of the island's energy requirements at an economical rate for the local populace. According to Bernerd Da Santos, the plant's retirement on September 1, 2022, is a significant milestone in the joint efforts made a steadfast commitment to supporting the state's transition towards a future of energy free from carbon emissions.
“The implementation of diversity across the islands is underway, with more than 300 MW of solar and wind resources already operational or in development. Bernerd Da Santos, has expressed that the company is collaborating closely with the State of Hawaii and local utilities to devise pragmatic strategies to attain their goals. Hawaii has committed to supporting the state in expediting and responsibly transitioning towards a future of energy free from carbon emissions.
“Finally, according Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and President, Renewables, stated that the newly established objectives for producing renewable energy contribute to stabilizing rates and enhancing the system's reliability. Our operational initiatives have the potential to provide significant support during periods of high demand. In contrast, our persistent endeavours to promote initiatives for renewable energy initiatives will aid in accomplishing the state's objective of attaining 100% renewable energy.
As U.S. Races Ahead, Europe Frets About Battery Factory Subsidies
As U.S. Races Ahead, Europe Frets About Battery Factory Subsidies
The European Union is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but subsidies are luring companies to the United States.
NYT BY *JACK EWING AND MELISSA EDDY, PUBLISHED MAY 31, 2023, UPDATED JUNE 1, 2023 *JACK EWING REPORTED FROM VASTERAS, SWEDEN; OSLO; AND GUBEN, GERMANY. MELISSA EDDY REPORTED FROM SALZGITTER, GERMANY, AND BERLIN.
European leaders complained for years that the United States was not doing enough to fight climate change. Now that the Biden administration has devoted hundreds of billions of dollars to that cause, many Europeans are complaining that the United States is going about it the wrong way.
Source: Germán & Co
Source: Britain’s Office for National Statistics, Italy’s Industry Ministry and Germany’s Federal Statistical Office By Rebecca LiebermanThe European Union is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but subsidies are luring companies to the United States.
NYT BY *JACK EWING AND MELISSA EDDY, PUBLISHED MAY 31, 2023, UPDATED JUNE 1, 2023*JACK EWING REPORTED FROM VASTERAS, SWEDEN; OSLO; AND GUBEN, GERMANY. MELISSA EDDY REPORTED FROM SALZGITTER, GERMANY, AND BERLIN.European leaders complained for years that the United States was not doing enough to fight climate change. Now that the Biden administration has devoted hundreds of billions of dollars to that cause, many Europeans are complaining that the United States is going about it the wrong way.
That new critique is born of a deep fear in Germany, France, Britain and other European countries that Washington’s approach will hurt the allies it ought to be working with, luring away much of the new investments in electric car and battery factories not already destined for China, South Korea and other Asian countries.
That concern is the main reason some European leaders, including Germany’s second-highest-ranking official, Robert Habeck, have beaten a path to Vasteras, a city about 60 miles from Stockholm that is best known for a Viking burial mound and a Gothic cathedral.
Officials have been traveling there to court one of Europe’s few homegrown battery companies, Northvolt. Led by a former Tesla executive, Northvolt is a small player in the global battery industry, but European leaders are offering it hundreds of millions of euros to build factories in Europe. Mr. Habeck visited in February to lobby the company to push ahead on its plan to build a factory near Hamburg, Germany. The company had considered postponing to invest in the United States instead.
“It’s definitely attractive to be in America right now,” Emma Nehrenheim, Northvolt’s chief environmental officer, said in an interview last month in Vasteras. Northvolt declined to comment in detail on the discussions about the Hamburg plant, which the company committed to in May.
The tussle over Northvolt’s plans is an example of the intense and, some European officials say, counterproductive competition between the United States and Europe as they try to acquire the building blocks of electric vehicle manufacturing to avoid becoming dependent on China, which dominates the battery supply chain.
Auto experts said that the tax credits and other incentives offered by President Biden’s main climate policy, the Inflation Reduction Act, had siphoned some investment from Europe and put pressure on European countries to offer their own incentives.
The United States has provoked a “massive subsidy race,” Cecilia Malmstrom, a former European trade commissioner, said during a panel discussion last month at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. She called on leaders to “jointly invest in the green transition and not compete against each other.”
Biden officials have argued that U.S. and European policies are complementary. They have noted that the government and private money going into electric cars and batteries would lower prices for car buyers and put more emission-free vehicles on the road.
Efforts by governments to promote electric vehicles “will spur a degree of technological innovation and cost cutting that will be beneficial not only to Europe and the United States, but to the global economy and to our global effort to meet the challenge that climate change presents,” Wally Adeyemo, the deputy Treasury secretary, said in a recent interview.
The Biden administration has also been talking with European officials about allowing cars made from European battery materials and components to qualify for U.S. tax credits. And the administration has interpreted the I.R.A., which Mr. Biden signed in August, to leave room for producers in Europe and elsewhere to benefit.
“You’re seeing less of a concern from Europe that those companies may be lured away from Europe to America,” said Abigail Wulf, who directs the Center for Critical Minerals Strategy at SAFE, a nonprofit organization.
Still, the law has forced European leaders to put new industrial policies in place.
In March, the European Commission, the administrative arm of the European Union, proposed the Critical Raw Materials Act, legislation to ensure supplies of lithium, nickel and other battery materials. One piece of the legislation calls for the E.U. to process at least 40 percent of the raw materials that the car industry needs within its own borders. The 27-nation alliance has also let countries provide more financial support to suppliers and manufacturers.
The money that the United States and Europe are pouring into electric vehicles will encourage sales, said Julia Poliscanova, a senior director at Transport & Environment, an advocacy group in Brussels. The legislation, which will need the approval of the European Parliament and the leaders of E.U. countries, would also bring some coherence to the fragmented policies of national governments, she said.
But Ms. Poliscanova added that European and U.S. policies risk canceling each other out. “Because everyone is scaling up at the same time, it’s a zero-sum game,” she said.
Business executives have complained that applying for financial aid in Europe is bureaucratic and slow. The Inflation Reduction Act, with its emphasis on tax credits, is simpler and faster, said Tom Einar Jensen, chief executive of the battery maker Freyr, which is building a factory in Mo i Rana, in northern Norway, and has plans to construct more plants in Finland and near Atlanta.
The I.R.A. has prompted “a dramatic increase in uptick in interest for batteries produced in the U.S.,” Mr. Jensen said in an interview.
The future of European auto manufacturing is at stake, particularly for German companies. Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen have already lost market share in China to local automakers like BYD. Chinese automakers, including BYD and SAIC, are also making inroads in Europe. Selling cars under the British brand MG, SAIC has amassed 5 percent of the European electric vehicle market, putting it ahead of Toyota and Ford in that fast-growing segment.
European carmakers are frantically trying to build the supply chains they need to churn out electric vehicles.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron wants to convert a northern region where factory jobs have been in decline into a hub of battery production.
On Tuesday, Automotive Cells Company, a joint venture between Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz and TotalEnergies, inaugurated a factory in Billy-Berclau Douvrin, France, that aims to produce 300,000 electric batteries annually by the end of 2024. A.C.C. also plans to invest a total of 7.3 billion euros, or $7.8 billion, in Europe, including opening factories in Germany and in Italy, a deal sealed with 1.3 billion euros in public aid.
In Salzgitter, Germany, some 25 miles from Volkswagen’s headquarters, steel beams tower above concrete foundations as excavators and dump trucks hum nearby. In a matter of months, the outlines of a battery factory have risen out of a field.
Volkswagen hopes to have battery-making machines installed before the end of the summer. By 2025, the automaker aims to produce battery cells for up to 500,000 electric vehicles a year — a timeline that the company said was possible only because the factory was being built on land it owned.
Volkswagen is also building a factory in Ontario, but the company made the decision to do so only after the Canadian government matched U.S. incentives.
In Guben, a small city on Germany’s border with Poland, Rock Tech Lithium, a Canadian company, is building a plant to process lithium ore. Mercedes has an agreement with Rock Tech to supply lithium to its battery producers.
These projects won’t reach full production for several years. Recently, the Guben site was an open field. The only construction activity was a truck that dumped loads of crushed rock, making an ear-piercing screech.
Europe has some advantages, including a strong demand for electric cars: About 14 percent of new cars sold in the E.U. in the first three months of this year were battery powered, according to Schmidt Automotive Research, twice as many as in the United States.
But if Europe doesn’t move quickly to aid the battery industry, “you will really lose momentum on the ground versus the North American market,” said Dirk Harbecke, chief executive of Rock Tech.
Chinese battery companies have largely avoided the United States for fear of a political backlash. But Chinese battery firms have announced investments in Europe worth $17.5 billion since 2018, according to the Mercator Institute for China Studies and the Rhodium Group.
Political tension between Western governments and China has put German carmakers in a delicate position. They do not want to be overly dependent on Chinese supplies, but they cannot afford to displease the Chinese government.
BMW, Volkswagen and Volvo plan to buy cells from a factory in Arnstadt, Germany, run by CATL, a Chinese company that is currently the world’s largest maker of electric vehicle batteries.
To balance their reliance on Chinese suppliers, European executives and leaders are keen to work with Northvolt, whose chief executive, Peter Carlsson, oversaw Tesla’s supply chain for more than four years.
Northvolt wants to control all the steps of making batteries, including refining lithium and recycling old cells. That should help Europe achieve supply chain independence and ensure that batteries are produced in the most environmentally responsible way possible, said Ms. Nehrenheim, who is also a member of the Northvolt management board. “We’re de-risking Europe,” she said.
The company develops manufacturing techniques at its complex in Vasteras. Northvolt’s first full-scale factory, at a site in Sweden 125 miles south of the Arctic Circle chosen for its abundant hydropower, is the size of the Pentagon. Northvolt also plans to build a U.S. factory, but has not yet announced a site.
Still, the company is ramping up production and is not among the world’s top 10 battery suppliers, according to SNE Research, a consulting firm. And construction on its Hamburg plant is on hold until E.U. officials approve German subsidies.
News round-up, June 1, 2023
Crossing the line can be dangerous…
In September 2002, I published on Energycentral.com an essay titled: *"Beware of Starving the Enemy of Oxygen." The paper delved into the dangerous tactic of depriving the adversary of oxygen. The praxis entails maintaining an open door to any potential solution that has been identified. The article "Biden Shows Growing Appetite to Cross Putin's Red Lines," published in the Wall Street Journal, offers valuable insights into President Biden's inclination to confront the limitations imposed by the Russian leader, Putin. Despite the suspicions of a potential global conflict, this action is a subject of significant apprehension.
The former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, has warned that when two powers of similar strength oppose, it often results in armed conflict. The need for clearly defined principles for conflict management is reminiscent of the period preceding the onset of World War I. The unresolved inquiry concerns the feasibility of peaceful coexistence between China and the United States and whether it can be achieved without the potential risk of military conflict. Kissinger proposes the implementation of measures to foster competition in strategic domains, as well as the establishment of an ongoing high-level dialogue between Beijing and Washington.
Unfortunately, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of reports concerning drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military installations. The extent of these attacks has exceeded the confines of the front line. It can be categorized as shaping operations, which may serve as a preliminary step towards a counteroffensive by Kyiv. The recent fire incident at the Afipsky refinery has brought attention to the potential outcomes and advantages of pushing against the limits set by President Putin, as there is a possibility that a drone caused the incident.
*https://energycentral.com/c/og/beware-starving-enemy-oxygen
Most Read…
Climate Shocks Are Making Parts of America Uninsurable. It Just Got Worse.
The largest insurer in California said it would stop offering new coverage. It’s part of a broader trend of companies pulling back from dangerous areas.
NYT By *Christopher Flavelle, Jill Cowan and Ivan Penn, May 31, 2023As U.S. Races Ahead, Europe Frets About Battery Factory Subsidies
The European Union is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but subsidies are luring companies to the United States.
NYT By *Jack Ewing and Melissa Eddy, Published May 31, 2023, Updated June 1, 2023Texas battery rush: Oil state's power woes fuel energy storage boom
To increase reliability, Texas lawmakers this week approved increased subsidies for natural gas power facilities. However, the legislation also includes clauses that, according to business associations, could promote investment in battery storage.
REUTERS By Nichola Groom and Laila Kearney, May 31, 2023Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines
Despite warnings that arming Ukraine will start a world war, President Biden continues to push the Russian leader’s limits — a strategy that brings risk and reward
TWP By John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, June 1, 2023 Drones targeted Russian oil refineries. Moscow is strengthening its front line, but the attackers' identity is unknown.
Intelligence reports suggest enemy forces are advancing ahead of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Media Editing By Germán & Co, June 1, 2023'Henry Kissinger, celebrating his 100th birthday, is as pessimistic as ever'
Le Monde by Alain Frachon, Published today Image:by Germán & CoCrossing the line can be dangerous.
In September 2002, I published on Energycentral.com an essay titled: *"Beware of Starving the Enemy of Oxygen." The paper delved into the dangerous tactic of depriving the adversary of oxygen. The praxis entails maintaining an open door to any potential solution that has been identified. The article "Biden Shows Growing Appetite to Cross Putin's Red Lines," published in the Wall Street Journal, offers valuable insights into President Biden's inclination to confront the limitations imposed by the Russian leader, Putin. Despite the suspicions of a potential global conflict, this action is a subject of significant apprehension. The former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, has warned that when two powers of similar strength oppose, it often results in armed conflict. The need for clearly defined principles for conflict management is reminiscent of the period preceding the onset of World War I. The unresolved inquiry concerns the feasibility of peaceful coexistence between China and the United States and whether it can be achieved without the potential risk of military conflict. Kissinger proposes the implementation of measures to foster competition in strategic domains, as well as the establishment of an ongoing high-level dialogue between Beijing and Washington. Unfortunately, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of reports concerning drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military installations. The extent of these attacks has exceeded the confines of the front line. It can be categorized as shaping operations, which may serve as a preliminary step towards a counteroffensive by Kyiv. The recent fire incident at the Afipsky refinery has brought attention to the potential outcomes and advantages of pushing against the limits set by President Putin, as there is a possibility that a drone caused the incident.
*https://energycentral.com/c/og/beware-starving-enemy-oxygenMost Read…
Climate Shocks Are Making Parts of America Uninsurable. It Just Got Worse.
The largest insurer in California said it would stop offering new coverage. It’s part of a broader trend of companies pulling back from dangerous areas.
NYT By *Christopher Flavelle, Jill Cowan and Ivan Penn, May 31, 2023
As U.S. Races Ahead, Europe Frets About Battery Factory Subsidies
The European Union is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but subsidies are luring companies to the United States.
NYT By *Jack Ewing and Melissa Eddy, Published May 31, 2023, Updated June 1, 2023Texas battery rush: Oil state's power woes fuel energy storage boom
To increase reliability, Texas lawmakers this week approved increased subsidies for natural gas power facilities. However, the legislation also includes clauses that, according to business associations, could promote investment in battery storage.
REUTERS By Nichola Groom and Laila Kearney, May 31, 2023Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines
Despite warnings that arming Ukraine will start a world war, President Biden continues to push the Russian leader’s limits — a strategy that brings risk and reward
TWP By John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, June 1, 2023
Drones targeted Russian oil refineries. Moscow is strengthening its front line, but the attackers' identity is unknown.
Intelligence reports suggest enemy forces are advancing ahead of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Media Editing By Germán & Co, June 1, 2023'Henry Kissinger, celebrating his 100th birthday, is as pessimistic as ever'
Le Monde by Alain Frachon, Published today
The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Source: A firefighter tried to save a home in Meyers, Calif., in 2021. Credit...Max Whittaker for The New York Times/Editing by Germán & CoClimate Shocks Are Making Parts of America Uninsurable. It Just Got Worse.
The largest insurer in California said it would stop offering new coverage. It’s part of a broader trend of companies pulling back from dangerous areas.
NYT By *Christopher Flavelle, Jill Cowan and Ivan Penn, May 31, 2023
*Christopher Flavelle, who has long covered the impacts of climate change on the insurance market, reported from Washington. Jill Cowan and Ivan Penn reported from Los Angeles.The climate crisis is becoming a financial crisis.
This month, the largest homeowner insurance company in California, State Farm, announced that it would stop selling coverage to homeowners. That’s not just in wildfire zones, but everywhere in the state.
Insurance companies, tired of losing money, are raising rates, restricting coverage or pulling out of some areas altogether — making it more expensive for people to live in their homes.
“Risk has a price,” said Roy Wright, the former official in charge of insurance at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and now head of the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, a research group. “We’re just now seeing it.”
In parts of eastern Kentucky ravaged by storms last summer, the price of flood insurance is set to quadruple. In Louisiana, the top insurance official says the market is in crisis, and is offering millions of dollars in subsidies to try to draw insurers to the state.
And in much of Florida, homeowners are increasingly struggling to buy storm coverage. Most big insurers have pulled out of the state already, sending homeowners to smaller private companies that are straining to stay in business — a possible glimpse into California’s future if more big insurers leave.
Growing ‘catastrophe exposure’
State Farm, which insures more homeowners in California than any other company, said it would stop accepting applications for most types of new insurance policies in the state because of “rapidly growing catastrophe exposure.”
The company said that while it recognized the work of California officials to reduce losses from wildfires, it had to stop writing new policies “to improve the company’s financial strength.” A State Farm spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
Insurance rates in California jumped after wildfires became more devastating than anyone had anticipated. A series of fires that broke out in 2017, many ignited by sparks from failing utility equipment, exploded in size with the effects of climate change. Some homeowners lost their insurance entirely because insurers refused to cover homes in vulnerable areas.
Michael Soller, a spokesman for the California Department of Insurance, said the agency was working to address the underlying factors that have caused disruption in the insurance industry across the country and around the world, including the biggest one: climate change.
He highlighted the department’s Safer From Wildfires initiative, a fire resilience program, and noted that state lawmakers are also working to control development in the areas at highest risk of burning.
But Tom Corringham, a research economist with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego who has studied the costs of natural disasters, said that allowing people to live in homes that are becoming uninsurable, or prohibitively expensive to insure, was unsustainable.
He said that policymakers must seriously consider buying properties that are at greatest risk, or otherwise moving residents out of the most dangerous communities.
“If we let the market sort it out, we have insurers refusing to write new policies in certain areas,” Dr. Corringham said. “We’re not sure how that’s in anyone’s best interest other than insurers.”
A broken model
California’s woes resemble a slow-motion version of what Florida experienced after Hurricane Andrew devastated Miami in 1992. The losses bankrupted some insurers and caused most national carriers to pull out of the state.
In response, Florida established a complicated system: a market based on small insurance companies, backed up by Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, a state-mandated company that would provide windstorm coverage for homeowners who couldn’t find private insurance.
For a while, it mostly worked. Then came Hurricane Irma.
The 2017 hurricane, which made landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category 4 storm before moving up the coast, didn’t cause a particularly great amount of damage. But it was the first in a series of storms, culminating in Hurricane Ian last October, that broke the model insurers had relied on: One bad year of claims, followed by a few quiet years to build back their reserves.
Since Irma, almost every year has been bad.
Private insurers began to struggle to pay their claims; some went out of business. Those that survived increased their rates significantly.
More people have left the private market for Citizens, which recently became the state’s largest insurance provider, according to Michael Peltier, a spokesman. But Citizens won’t cover homes with a replacement cost of more than $700,000, or $1 million in Miami-Dade County and the Florida Keys.
That leaves those homeowners with no choice but private coverage — and in parts of the state, that coverage is getting harder to find, Mr. Peltier said.
‘Just not enough wealth’
Florida, despite its challenges, has an important advantage: A steady influx of residents who remain, for now, willing and able to pay the rising cost of living there. In Louisiana, the rising cost of insurance has become, for some communities, a threat to their existence.
Like Florida after Andrew, Louisiana’s insurance market started to buckle after insurers began leaving following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Then, starting with Hurricane Laura in 2020, a series of storms pummeled the state. Nine insurance companies failed; people began rushing into the state’s own version of Florida’s Citizens plan.
The state’s insurance market “is in crisis,” Louisiana’s insurance commissioner, James J. Donelon, said in an interview.
In December, Louisiana had to increase premiums for coverage provided by its Citizens plan by 63 percent, to an average of $4,700 a year. In March, it borrowed $500 million from the bond market to pay the claims of homeowners who had been abandoned when their private insurers failed, Mr. Donelon said. The state recently agreed to new subsidies for private insurers, essentially paying them to do business in the state.
Mr. Donelon said he hoped that the subsidies would stabilize the market. But Jesse Keenan, a professor at Tulane University in New Orleans and an expert in climate adaptation and finance, said the state’s insurance market would be hard to turn around. The high cost of insurance has begun to affect home prices, he said.
In the past, it would have been possible for some communities — those where homes are passed down from generation to generation, with no mortgages required and no banks demanding insurance — to go without insurance altogether. But as climate change makes storms more intense, that’s no longer an option.
“There’s just not enough wealth in those low-income communities to continue to rebuild, storm after storm,” Dr. Keenan said.
A shift to risk-based pricing
Even as homeowners in coastal states face rising costs for wind coverage, they’re being squeezed from yet another direction: Flood insurance.
In 1968, Congress created the National Flood Insurance Program, which offered taxpayer-backed coverage to homeowners. As with wildfires in California and hurricanes in Florida, the flood program arose from what economists call a market failure: Private insurers wouldn’t provide coverage for flooding, leaving homeowners with no options.
The program achieved its main goal, of making flood insurance widely available at a price that homeowners could afford. But as storms became more severe, the program faced growing losses.
In 2021, FEMA, which runs the program, began setting rates equal to the actual flood risk facing homeowners — an effort to better communicate the true danger facing different properties, and also to stanch the losses for the government.
Those increases, which are being phased in over years, in some cases amount to enormous jumps in price. The current cost of flood insurance for single-family homes nationwide is $888 a year, according to FEMA. Under the new, risk-based pricing, that average cost would be $1,808.
And by the time current policyholders actually have to pay premiums that reflect that full risk, the impacts of climate change could make them much higher.
“Properties located in high-risk areas should plan and expect to pay for that risk,” David Maurstad, head of the flood insurance program, said in a statement.
The best way for policymakers to help keep insurance affordable is to reduce the risk people face, said Carolyn Kousky, associate vice president for economics and policy at the Environmental Defense Fund. For example, officials could impose tougher building standards in vulnerable areas.Government-mandated programs, like the flood insurance plan, or Citizens in Florida and Louisiana, were meant to be a backstop to the private market. But as climate shocks get worse, she said, “we’re now at the point where that’s starting to crack.”
Image: Northvolt is a small player in the global battery industry, but European countries are offering it hundreds of millions of euros to build factories.Credit...Felix Odell/Editing by Germán & CoAs U.S. Races Ahead, Europe Frets About Battery Factory Subsidies
The European Union is trying to assemble the building blocks to produce electric cars, but subsidies are luring companies to the United States.
NYT By *Jack Ewing and Melissa Eddy, Published May 31, 2023, Updated June 1, 2023*Jack Ewing reported from Vasteras, Sweden; Oslo; and Guben, Germany. Melissa Eddy reported from Salzgitter, Germany, and Berlin.European leaders complained for years that the United States was not doing enough to fight climate change. Now that the Biden administration has devoted hundreds of billions of dollars to that cause, many Europeans are complaining that the United States is going about it the wrong way.
That new critique is born of a deep fear in Germany, France, Britain and other European countries that Washington’s approach will hurt the allies it ought to be working with, luring away much of the new investments in electric car and battery factories not already destined for China, South Korea and other Asian countries.
That concern is the main reason some European leaders, including Germany’s second-highest-ranking official, Robert Habeck, have beaten a path to Vasteras, a city about 60 miles from Stockholm that is best known for a Viking burial mound and a Gothic cathedral.
Officials have been traveling there to court one of Europe’s few homegrown battery companies, Northvolt. Led by a former Tesla executive, Northvolt is a small player in the global battery industry, but European leaders are offering it hundreds of millions of euros to build factories in Europe. Mr. Habeck visited in February to lobby the company to push ahead on its plan to build a factory near Hamburg, Germany. The company had considered postponing to invest in the United States instead.
“It’s definitely attractive to be in America right now,” Emma Nehrenheim, Northvolt’s chief environmental officer, said in an interview last month in Vasteras. Northvolt declined to comment in detail on the discussions about the Hamburg plant, which the company committed to in May.
The tussle over Northvolt’s plans is an example of the intense and, some European officials say, counterproductive competition between the United States and Europe as they try to acquire the building blocks of electric vehicle manufacturing to avoid becoming dependent on China, which dominates the battery supply chain.
Auto experts said that the tax credits and other incentives offered by President Biden’s main climate policy, the Inflation Reduction Act, had siphoned some investment from Europe and put pressure on European countries to offer their own incentives.
The United States has provoked a “massive subsidy race,” Cecilia Malmstrom, a former European trade commissioner, said during a panel discussion last month at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. She called on leaders to “jointly invest in the green transition and not compete against each other.”
Biden officials have argued that U.S. and European policies are complementary. They have noted that the government and private money going into electric cars and batteries would lower prices for car buyers and put more emission-free vehicles on the road.
Efforts by governments to promote electric vehicles “will spur a degree of technological innovation and cost cutting that will be beneficial not only to Europe and the United States, but to the global economy and to our global effort to meet the challenge that climate change presents,” Wally Adeyemo, the deputy Treasury secretary, said in a recent interview.
The Biden administration has also been talking with European officials about allowing cars made from European battery materials and components to qualify for U.S. tax credits. And the administration has interpreted the I.R.A., which Mr. Biden signed in August, to leave room for producers in Europe and elsewhere to benefit.
“You’re seeing less of a concern from Europe that those companies may be lured away from Europe to America,” said Abigail Wulf, who directs the Center for Critical Minerals Strategy at SAFE, a nonprofit organization.
Still, the law has forced European leaders to put new industrial policies in place.
In March, the European Commission, the administrative arm of the European Union, proposed the Critical Raw Materials Act, legislation to ensure supplies of lithium, nickel and other battery materials. One piece of the legislation calls for the E.U. to process at least 40 percent of the raw materials that the car industry needs within its own borders. The 27-nation alliance has also let countries provide more financial support to suppliers and manufacturers.
The money that the United States and Europe are pouring into electric vehicles will encourage sales, said Julia Poliscanova, a senior director at Transport & Environment, an advocacy group in Brussels. The legislation, which will need the approval of the European Parliament and the leaders of E.U. countries, would also bring some coherence to the fragmented policies of national governments, she said.
But Ms. Poliscanova added that European and U.S. policies risk canceling each other out. “Because everyone is scaling up at the same time, it’s a zero-sum game,” she said.
Business executives have complained that applying for financial aid in Europe is bureaucratic and slow. The Inflation Reduction Act, with its emphasis on tax credits, is simpler and faster, said Tom Einar Jensen, chief executive of the battery maker Freyr, which is building a factory in Mo i Rana, in northern Norway, and has plans to construct more plants in Finland and near Atlanta.
The I.R.A. has prompted “a dramatic increase in uptick in interest for batteries produced in the U.S.,” Mr. Jensen said in an interview.
The future of European auto manufacturing is at stake, particularly for German companies. Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen have already lost market share in China to local automakers like BYD. Chinese automakers, including BYD and SAIC, are also making inroads in Europe. Selling cars under the British brand MG, SAIC has amassed 5 percent of the European electric vehicle market, putting it ahead of Toyota and Ford in that fast-growing segment.
European carmakers are frantically trying to build the supply chains they need to churn out electric vehicles.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron wants to convert a northern region where factory jobs have been in decline into a hub of battery production.
On Tuesday, Automotive Cells Company, a joint venture between Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz and TotalEnergies, inaugurated a factory in Billy-Berclau Douvrin, France, that aims to produce 300,000 electric batteries annually by the end of 2024. A.C.C. also plans to invest a total of 7.3 billion euros, or $7.8 billion, in Europe, including opening factories in Germany and in Italy, a deal sealed with 1.3 billion euros in public aid.
In Salzgitter, Germany, some 25 miles from Volkswagen’s headquarters, steel beams tower above concrete foundations as excavators and dump trucks hum nearby. In a matter of months, the outlines of a battery factory have risen out of a field.
Volkswagen hopes to have battery-making machines installed before the end of the summer. By 2025, the automaker aims to produce battery cells for up to 500,000 electric vehicles a year — a timeline that the company said was possible only because the factory was being built on land it owned.
Volkswagen is also building a factory in Ontario, but the company made the decision to do so only after the Canadian government matched U.S. incentives.
In Guben, a small city on Germany’s border with Poland, Rock Tech Lithium, a Canadian company, is building a plant to process lithium ore. Mercedes has an agreement with Rock Tech to supply lithium to its battery producers.
These projects won’t reach full production for several years. Recently, the Guben site was an open field. The only construction activity was a truck that dumped loads of crushed rock, making an ear-piercing screech.
Europe has some advantages, including a strong demand for electric cars: About 14 percent of new cars sold in the E.U. in the first three months of this year were battery powered, according to Schmidt Automotive Research, twice as many as in the United States.
But if Europe doesn’t move quickly to aid the battery industry, “you will really lose momentum on the ground versus the North American market,” said Dirk Harbecke, chief executive of Rock Tech.
Chinese battery companies have largely avoided the United States for fear of a political backlash. But Chinese battery firms have announced investments in Europe worth $17.5 billion since 2018, according to the Mercator Institute for China Studies and the Rhodium Group.
Political tension between Western governments and China has put German carmakers in a delicate position. They do not want to be overly dependent on Chinese supplies, but they cannot afford to displease the Chinese government.
BMW, Volkswagen and Volvo plan to buy cells from a factory in Arnstadt, Germany, run by CATL, a Chinese company that is currently the world’s largest maker of electric vehicle batteries.
To balance their reliance on Chinese suppliers, European executives and leaders are keen to work with Northvolt, whose chief executive, Peter Carlsson, oversaw Tesla’s supply chain for more than four years.
Northvolt wants to control all the steps of making batteries, including refining lithium and recycling old cells. That should help Europe achieve supply chain independence and ensure that batteries are produced in the most environmentally responsible way possible, said Ms. Nehrenheim, who is also a member of the Northvolt management board. “We’re de-risking Europe,” she said.
The company develops manufacturing techniques at its complex in Vasteras. Northvolt’s first full-scale factory, at a site in Sweden 125 miles south of the Arctic Circle chosen for its abundant hydropower, is the size of the Pentagon. Northvolt also plans to build a U.S. factory, but has not yet announced a site.
Still, the company is ramping up production and is not among the world’s top 10 battery suppliers, according to SNE Research, a consulting firm. And construction on its Hamburg plant is on hold until E.U. officials approve German subsidies.
An engineer checks an inverter next to battery banks at GlidePath's Byrd Ranch energy storage facility in Sweeny, Texas, U.S., May 23, 2023. REUTERS/Adrees LatifTexas battery rush: Oil state's power woes fuel energy storage boom
To increase reliability, Texas lawmakers this week approved increased subsidies for natural gas power facilities. However, the legislation also includes clauses that, according to business associations, could promote investment in battery storage.
REUTERS By Nichola Groom and Laila Kearney, May 31, 2023May 31 (Reuters) - BlackRock, Korea's SK, Switzerland's UBS and other companies are chasing an investment boom in battery storage plants in Texas, lured by the prospect of earning double-digit returns from the power grid problems plaguing the state, according to project owners, developers and suppliers.
Projects coming online are generating returns of around 20%, compared with single digit returns for solar and wind projects, according to Rhett Bennett, CEO of Black Mountain Energy Storage, one of the top developers in the state.
"Resolving grid issues with utility-scale energy storage is probably the hottest thing out there,” he said.
The rapid expansion of battery storage could help prevent a repeat of the February 2021 ice storm and grid collapse which killed 246 people and left millions of Texans without power for days.
The battery rush also puts the Republican-controlled state at the forefront of President Joe Biden's push to expand renewable energy use.
Reuters drew on previously unreported data and interviewed more than a dozen executives from private equity firms, utility companies and energy storage providers involved in some of the biggest battery storage deals for this report. They described a rush to take advantage of the high returns before they erode.
Power prices in Texas can swing from highs of about $90 per megawatt hour (MWh) on a normal summer day to nearly $3,000 per MWh when demand surges on a day with less wind power, according to a simulation by the federal government's U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That volatility, a product of demand and higher reliance on intermittent wind and solar energy, has fueled a rush to install battery plants that store electricity when it is cheap and abundant and sell when supplies tighten and prices soar.
Texas last year accounted for 31% of new U.S. grid-scale energy storage, according to energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, second only to California which has had a state mandate for battery development for a decade.
While declining, Texas’s share of U.S. grid-scale energy storage capacity will stay the second largest in the country, next only to California where battery development has been state-supported for years.
LEADER IN ENERGY STORAGE
And Texas is expected to account for nearly a quarter of the U.S. grid-scale storage market over the next five years, according to Wood Mackenzie projections shared with Reuters.
Developers and energy traders said locations offering the highest returns -- in strapped areas of the grid -- will become increasingly scarce as more storage comes online and electricity prices stabilize.
Texas lawmakers this week voted to provide new subsidies for natural gas power plants in a bid to shore up reliability. But the legislation also contains provisions that industry groups said could encourage investment in battery storage.
Amid the battery rush, BlackRock acquired developer Jupiter Power from private equity firm EnCap Investments late last year. Korea's SK E&S acquired Key Capture Energy from Vision Ridge Partners in 2021 and UBS bought five Texas projects from Black Mountain last year for a combined 700 megawatts (MW) of energy storage. None of the sales' prices were disclosed.
SK E&S said its acquisition of Key Capture was part of a strategy to invest in U.S. grid resiliency.
"SK E&S views energy storage solutions in Texas and across the U.S. as a core technology that supports a new energy infrastructure system to ensure American homes and businesses have affordable power," the company said in a statement.
UBS and BlackRock declined to comment.
Installed generating capacity in energy storage is forecast by the government to rise over 10 times by 2050 from 2023 as potential investors benefit from new tax credit for the sector under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
U.S. energy storage companies attracted $5.5 billion in investment last year, according to Mercom Capital Group. The U.S. is projected to install 65 gigawatts (GW) of grid storage over the next five years, 15 times the 4 GW added last year, according to Wood Mackenzie, buoyed by a 30% tax credit for energy storage in Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the grid that serves most of the state, has 3.2 GW of energy storage capacity, according to its own data.
The authority said in a statement that more storage was in development. It has pending requests to connect to the grid from plants offering more than 96 GW in storage, according to ERCOT data. ERCOT declined an interview request.
'CLOAK AND DAGGER'
"It's cheaper to build there, the revenue is higher, and the problems are real," said Andrew Waranch, president of Spearmint Energy, which acquired about 1 GW of Texas projects in the last year.
While some investors have focused on specific locations with maximum volatility, more than 80% of the revenue comes from the Ancillary Services Market, which seeks to stabilize power supply across the grid, according to David Miller, vice president of business development at Gridmatic, which uses artificial intelligence to optimize battery use.
Miller said he expects ancillary market prices to "collapse" as more battery storage comes online.
Average energy storage revenue already fell about 18% last year, according to a Gridmatic analysis.
Waranch said battery storage plants coming online in 2025 could take up to eight years to break even compared with four or less for plants that come online in 2023.
The urgency has helped fuel a rush to install projects that can get faster regulatory clearance.
Stem Inc (STEM.N) and other developers said they are focusing on small projects of under 10 MW because they face fewer regulatory requirements.
The diminishing returns have also intensified competition for sites in areas with the wildest wholesale power price fluctuations, industry executives said.
"We want to get maximum volatility," said American Enerpower Chairman Dick Lewis, who scours Texas for plots of land near constrained parts of the grid to develop battery plants. "Placement is very important."
So is timing, said Andrew Tang, vice president of energy storage and optimization at Finland's Wartsila, which has supplied about a third of the Texas battery market.
"There's a little bit of cloak and dagger secrecy," he said. "If they think they've seen a trading opportunity that exists in the marketplace, they don't want to openly brag about it because someone else will jump in and therefore get rid of the arbitrage opportunity," he said.
Chris McKissack, CEO of storage developer GlidePath, said that batteries will likely remain a good bet for a long time -- even if Texas is seeking to bolster traditional forms of energy like natural gas.
"If no new generation is built and all you've got is old generation and load growth, you've got even more volatility," McKissack said. And that, he said, could lead to more opportunity for storage.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image: Germán & CoBiden shows growing appetite to cross Putin’s red lines
Despite warnings that arming Ukraine will start a world war, President Biden continues to push the Russian leader’s limits — a strategy that brings risk and reward
TWP By John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, June 1, 2023
President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Ukraine, in February. (Evan Vucci/AP)
President Biden’s decision last month to help Ukraine obtain F-16 fighter jets marked another crossing of a Russian red line that Vladimir Putin has said would transform the war and draw Washington and Moscow into direct conflict.
Despite the Russian leader’s apocalyptic warnings, the United States has gradually agreed to expand Ukraine’s arsenal with Javelin and Stinger missiles, HIMARS rocket launchers, advanced missile defense systems, drones, helicopters, M1 Abrams tanks and, soon, fourth-generation fighter jets.
A key reason for brushing aside Putin’s threats, U.S. officials say, is a dynamic that has held since the opening days of the war: Russia’s president has not followed through on promises to punish the West for providing weapons to Ukraine. His bluffing has given U.S. and European leaders some confidence they can continue doing so without severe consequences — but to what extent remains one of the conflict’s most dangerous uncertainties.
President Biden announced a new $375 million military assistance package for Ukraine during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 21. (Video: Reuters)
“Russia has devalued its red lines so many times by saying certain things would be unacceptable and then doing nothing when they happen,” said Maxim Samorukov, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The problem is that we don’t know the actual red line. It’s in one person’s head, and it can change from one day to the next.”
U.S. officials say managing the risk of escalation remains one of the most difficult aspects of the war for Biden and his foreign policy advisers. When deciding what new weapons systems to provide Ukraine, they focus on four key factors, officials said.
“Do they need it? Can they use it? Do we have it? What is the Russian response going to be?” said a senior State Department official. Like others interviewed for this report, this person spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations.
The official said Russia’s reluctance to retaliate has influenced the risk calculus of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a key Biden confidante who has been an influential voice encouraging the administration and U.S. allies to do more to support Ukraine.
“You factor that in your decision-making. We did this — there was no escalation or response — can we do the next thing? We’re constantly weighing those factors and it becomes the hardest judgment call we have to make,” said the official.
Like Blinken, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan also has viewed the benefits of supplying more lethal weaponry to Ukraine as outweighing the risks of escalation and has worked extensively with European allies on providing F-16s to Ukraine, said a White House official.
The administration has juggled these concerns amid a clamor from Ukrainians and hawks in Congress frustrated by the incremental approach and eager for Biden to move faster in sending more advanced equipment to the battlefield amid Russia’s brutal onslaught.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow last week. (Mikhail Klimentyev/AP)
At the outset of Russia’s invasion in February last year, Putin warned that any country that tried to “impede” his forces “must know that the Russian response will be immediate and lead to consequences you have never seen in history.”
As the war has dragged on, the warnings from Putin and his subordinates have only become more bombastic, threatening a nuclear holocaust if Russia faced setbacks on the battlefield.
“If Russia feels its territorial integrity is threatened, we will use all defense methods at our disposal, and this is not a bluff,” Putin said last September.
Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council, was more explicit in January. “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war,” he said.
While Putin has challenged the United States — suspending participation in a critical arms control treaty, imprisoning Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and overseeing a court’s decision to sentence WNBA star Brittney Griner to a nine-year prison term before insisting on a one-for-one trade for a notorious arms merchant — he has not lashed out militarily at Washington or its allies.
But Western officials are cognizant that that doesn’t mean he never will — particularly as the conflict escalates.
On Tuesday, drones struck affluent districts of Moscow in what one Russian politician called the worst attack on the capital since World War II. Ukraine has denied involvement in such strikes within the Russian mainland, and the Biden administration said it neither enables nor encourages Ukrainian attack inside Russia. But Kyiv appears content with Russian civilians experiencing the fears Ukrainians have lived with for more than a year as their population centers have come under relentless Russian missile and drone attacks.
A possible explanation for Putin’s reluctance to hit the West is the diminished state of Russia’s military, according to U.S. officials.
“It would not seem to be in their interest to get into a direct confrontation with NATO right now,” said the senior U.S. official. “They are not well positioned to do so.”
Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimated in a recent interview with Foreign Affairs that Russia has suffered as many as 250,000 dead and wounded since its full-scale invasion began — staggering losses for any conflict.
Putin has replaced them on the battlefield, Milley said, but with reservists who are “poorly led, not well trained, poorly equipped, not well sustained.”
As Russian fatalities have mounted, Putin has recalibrated his war aims, from seizing control of Kyiv and decapitating the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to controlling and annexing a swath of territory across eastern and southern Ukraine.
Still, U.S. officials remain wary that Russia, home to the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, could escalate in Ukraine or elsewhere. Last year, amid heightened concerns that Russia was considering deploying a nuclear weapon, senior State Department officials privately warned Moscow about the consequences of doing so — messages that were eventually followed by public warnings.
As the Biden administration has weighed such risks, Ukrainian leaders, including Zelensky, have expressed their consternation publicly. The perceived dithering and delay, they’ve claimed, has prolonged the bloodshed by inhibiting Ukraine’s ability to overwhelm the Russian military and force an end to the war.
Republican hawks in Congress, meanwhile, have said the threat of Russian escalation shouldn’t even be a consideration. Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee, has called the administration “cowardly” for not sending long-range missile systems known as ATACMS. The weapons have been high on Ukraine’s wish list for almost the entirety of the war.
“Every time the administration has delayed sending Ukraine a critical weapon system, from Stingers to HIMARS to Bradleys, over fears of Russian escalation, they have been proven completely and utterly wrong,” he said earlier this year.
Britain approved the transfer of similar weapons, long-range missiles known as Storm Shadows, in early May.
Ground crews approach a Danish F-16 fighter jet near Vojens, Denmark, on May 25. Denmark is in the process of replacing its F-16 fleet with more advanced F-35s and has committed to training Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16s. (Bo Amstrup/AFP/Getty Images)
Inside the Biden administration, the Pentagon is considered more cautious than the White House or State Department about sending more sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine, but officials there deny that fear of escalation plays any role in their calculations.
The Defense Department has focused on what Ukraine needs at any given moment, said a senior Pentagon official who defended its role and counsel as Kyiv’s ambitious requests throughout the war have been slow-rolled or turned down. The official cited how the United States has evolved from providing anti-armor missiles such as the Javelin, when it was clear columns of Russian military vehicles would invade, to sending artillery as the war shifted into a bloody duel waged from trenches — and to more recent Western commitments of tanks and F-16 fighter jets.
Before almost any Western arms or equipment can be transferred to the units who will use them, Ukrainian forces first must learn how to operate and maintain what they receive, this person said, praising “how amazing” they’ve been at “standing up what is now a very sophisticated maintenance and sustainment system that did not exist at the beginning of the war.”
In one example, Ukrainian officials for months last year requested the billion-dollar Patriot air defense missile system. U.S. officials held, citing concerns about training, maintenance and cost, but ultimately relented in December after repeated Russian missile barrages targeted Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. One such system donated by the West was damaged after a Russian strike in mid-May, requiring U.S. assistance to repair.
The senior defense official disputed any suggestion that other U.S. agencies are looking to do more to help Ukraine than the Pentagon is. “I think the folks in the Defense Department have a unique understanding of what is practically possible, and how to best support the Ukrainian armed forces in a way that supports them at any given moment on the battlefield,” the official said.
Unquestionably, the Biden administration’s willingness to cross Putin’s red lines has bolstered Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and recapture territory in the east and south. What remains to see, however, is whether Putin will continue to allow the West to defy his threats without consequence.
“Certain red lines exist,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, “ … but because we don’t have a way to know for sure what they are, that’s what creates risk.”
Ukrainian troops preparing for battle/Editing by Germán & CoDrones targeted Russian oil refineries. Moscow is strengthening its front line, but the attackers' identity is unknown.
Intelligence reports suggest enemy forces are advancing ahead of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Media Editing By Germán & Co, June 1, 2023According to reports, the Ilyinsky oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region was minimally impacted by a possible drone attack. A fire incident occurred at the Afipsky refinery, spreading flames over an area of 1,000 square feet. The regional governor, Veniamin Kondratyev, posits that a drone may have caused the fire, although there were no reported injuries. Regrettably, there has been an increase in drone strikes targeting Russian infrastructure and military installations, which have expanded beyond the confines of the front line. The Russian government has attributed responsibility to Ukraine for these occurrences, and military analysts propose that they may be a component of shaping operations in anticipation of a possible counteroffensive by the forces of Kyiv.
The rise in drone attacks on Russian infrastructure and military targets beyond the front line is worrying. Moscow blames Ukraine, but Kyiv has denied direct involvement in such operations. Military analysts describe the attacks as shaping the stage for a wider counteroffensive by Kyiv's forces. The M1 Abrams tank is a powerful weapon for the U.S., but its complex technology and turbine engine may pose logistical challenges for Ukraine. Drones have been targeting residential buildings in Moscow, including one near a residence of President Vladimir Putin where several were downed. Ukrainian officials denied involvement but expect more strikes. Putin praised Moscow's air defenses but suggested improvements are needed.
Russia is losing the initiative in the Ukraine conflict, say, Western officials. Moscow is reacting to Ukrainian offensives that are setting the battlefield agenda. Russia is reinforcing its defences in Ukraine's east and south. Kyiv claims to be ready for an offensive. The operation will involve multiple brigades with Western-trained soldiers and modern equipment from Ukraine's allies.
Western officials say the nightly drone-and-missile attacks against Ukrainian cities to weaken its air defences and defence capacity has failed. The U.S. has pledged $300 million in military aid to Ukraine, including Patriot munitions, air defence equipment, artillery and tank shells, and mine-clearing systems.
The U.S. has provided $18.7 billion in military equipment from existing stocks and ordered $6 billion in new supplies for Kyiv. The U.S. has given Ukraine over $37.6 billion in security assistance since Russia's invasion. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes any support from Japan for Ukraine. Japanese policies prohibit providing lethal weapons to nations at war, so Japan has only given nonlethal aid to Ukraine, such as food rations, helmets, and bulletproof vests.
Western officials claim Russia is using its military to strengthen border areas in response to recent drone attacks and a Ukrainian-backed incursion in Belgorod, Bryansk, and other regions.
'Henry Kissinger, celebrating his 100th birthday, is as pessimistic as ever'
Le Monde by Alain Frachon, Published today Born on May 27, 1923, the former US secretary of state (1973-1977) and realpolitik advocate is concerned with the spiraling conflict between China and the United States, writes columnist Alain Frachon.
Negotiations on Ukraine should be concluded by the end of the year. But the Chinese-American rivalry may in turn lead to war. With artificial intelligence, the battlefield will be more deadly than ever. We are living in an era similar to that which preceded World War I (1914-1918). These are times without defined rules between the great powers. It is an era in search of strategic norms.
Henry Kissinger is speaking from experience. He turned 100 on May 27. He walks with difficulty, has lost vision in one eye and says he gets tired faster. His voice is less confident, but still deep, with hints of his native Germany. He has been following world affairs since the early 1940s. He is as pessimistic as ever, even more so perhaps than when he was steering American diplomacy from 1968 to 1977. He first served as the head of the National Security Council, at the White House, then as US secretary of State.
Kissinger thinks Xi Jinping would "take a phone call from him" and Vladimir Putin would as well. The Chinese president would do it out of deference to his elders, and his Russian counterpart would do it out of respect for a believer in realpolitik. And Kissinger has things to say. He confided in the journalist Ted Koppel, in a lengthy interview on CBS, and in an eight-hour conversation with the weekly The Economist. This was in April, just before celebrating his 100th birthday.
How will the war in Europe end? Most likely, the Ukrainian army will take back a further portion of the land occupied by the Russians since February 24, 2022. On the other hand, the Russians are unlikely to be driven out of Crimea. "The risk is that both Russia and Ukraine will be dissatisfied," said Kissinger. "It will be a balance of frustration." To find a way out of it, the West needs to use its "imagination" and decide on two things at the same time.
Willingly assertive
The first thing to do is to integrate Ukraine into NATO right away: "If I were speaking to him, I'd tell Putin that it's in his own best interest." Membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will ensure Kyiv's protection, but it will also give a sense of responsibility to an over-armed Ukraine that still lacks strategic experience. The second move will be for the Europeans to imagine a rapprochement with Russia, in order to "stabilize the eastern border" of the Union. "Realistic," really, Dr. Kissinger? With Putin's Russia?
Born in 1923 into a Jewish family from the Bavarian bourgeoisie, Henry Kissinger came to the United States in 1938 with his parents. Thirteen of his relatives and cousins perished in the Holocaust. He has been a Harvard professor, a diplomat, an adviser to the great and always on their side, and an admirable writer and chronicler of his times. He grew up with the memory of his family's tragedy.
He saw the collapse of the Weimar Republic and was aware of the fragility of democracy. He distrusts the idealism of the well-meaning and believes in the balance of power. He implemented normalization with Mao's China and, in 1973, negotiated on the fly between Arabs and Israelis while hostilities were still ongoing.
Willingly assertive when confronted by Ted Koppel, he defended the American bombings of Cambodia and Laos in the name of US "credibility" in the negotiations then underway with Vietnam. In the same way, he justified the United States' association with some of the worst dictatorships of the time as being necessary due to the Cold War. His teacher and friend Hans Morgenthau (1904-1980) had warned him: "The very act of acting destroys our moral integrity." And to what do we owe the enthusiastic imprimatur given to the 2003 invasion of Iraq?
Always borne with humor, Kissinger's brand of pessimism is not running short of fuel, now more than ever. It draws from the degeneration of the American domestic political scene. But his deepest concern is the spiraling conflict that is consuming China and the United States. The United States is convinced that China, having benefited from the international order enacted by the Americans in 1945, now wants to replace it with Chinese-style rules. And China, for its part, is convinced that the Americans intend to prevent it from achieving the dominance justified by its political and economic weight.
The doctor's prescription
"When two powers of this type come face to face," said Kissinger, "it normally ends in armed conflict." The two countries no longer have a guiding principle for managing their conflicts. "We are in the very same type of situation as before WWI."
"Is it possible for China and the United States," asks Kissinger, "to coexist without the permanent threat of war between them?" The answer: "Yes, but success is not guaranteed, and, therefore, we must be militarily strong enough to cope." The doctor's orders? Here again, it is a two-pronged action: support competition with China in all areas that matter strategically, and institutionalize permanent high-level dialog between Beijing and Washington.
The test will be in Taiwan, of course. The mistake the United States must avoid is imagining that a change of regime in Beijing would automatically have a beneficial and stabilizing effect. It would be quite the opposite. The danger that threatens China's leaders is believing that history has a meaning, that the time of decline has come for the United States and, for China, it is the time of leadership. May it be said in Beijing, for so says the venerable centenarian.
News round-up, May 31, 2023
Yesterday we reflected on the following: Tuesday's chaos reflections... Is the current state of war is out of control?
The protracted conflict of attrition that both superpowers have been pursuing has proven to be unsuccessful.
The phrase "an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" is a well-known principle of justice that dates back to ancient times. It suggests that the punishment for a wrongdoing should be proportional to the harm caused by the offense. This concept has been debated and interpreted in various ways throughout history, but it remains a fundamental principle in many legal systems around the world.
The adage "An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" has its roots in the Code of Hammurabi, a legal code inscribed in the Akkadian language during the reign of King Hammurabi of Babylon between 1792 and 1750 BC. This expression is referenced in the Bible, more precisely in Matthew 5:38.
The military operations conducted by both superpowers, as evidenced by the recent missile strikes launched by Russia on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and the utilization of drones by Ukraine to target Moscow, indicate that the protracted conflict that both superpowers have been pursuing has not yielded the desired outcome of attrition. The fundamental principle of checks and balances has been eroded, resulting in a feeling of hopelessness and an illogical approach to justice, whereby each action is met with an equivalent and opposing reaction. It is imperative to tackle these concerns and reinstate equilibrium and impartiality in our political structures.
In the context of retributive justice, Mahatma Gandhi famously stated, "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind," a statement that remains pertinent in contemporary times. The pursuit of vengeance serves to sustain a culture of violence and devastation, resulting in an unceasing pattern of anguish and affliction. Instead, it is imperative that we endeavor to cultivate forgiveness and understanding as a means of attaining enduring peace and harmony in our global community. It is imperative to acknowledge that the experience of anger and resentment can impede our capacity to empathize with others, thereby limiting our ability to understand and relate to their perspectives. By cultivating compassion and empathy, it is possible to break away from this cycle and strive towards a more promising future that benefits all individuals. Let us reflect upon the of Gandhi and opt for the course of forgiveness and comprehension, even when confronted with challenging circumstances.
The topic of food inflation in Europe was addressed yesterday in a comprehensive article published by The New York Times.
“Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe?A United Nations index of global food commodity prices, such as wheat, meat and vegetable oil, peaked in March 2022, immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is one of the largest grain producers. The war disrupted grain and oil production in the region and had global impact, too, worsening food crises in parts of East Africa and the Middle East.
This discourse pertains to the continuous drone and missile assaults carried out against non-combatants in Russia and Ukraine. The far-reaching consequences of the ongoing war have exceeded the initial predictions, highlighting the urgent need for a prompt resolution to the conflict in order to restore a state of peace.
Most Read…
NOW EXCLUSIVE WSJ: Ukraine and Allies Plan Peace Summit Without Russia…
Kyiv has strong European backing for a gathering before NATO meeting in July
Zelensky's peace plan aims to restore Ukraine's control, release prisoners of war, and prosecute war crimes. The proposal suggests addressing nuclear safety and food security, both allegedly jeopardized by Russia's occupation of a nuclear power plant and invasion.
Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe?
Agricultural and energy costs are falling, but basic items remain stubbornly expensive for consumers.
NYT BY ESHE NELSON, REPORTING FROM LONDON, TODAYUS solar, storage builders dash west in major test for grids…
Rising solar and wind penetration increases the demand for storage and most new solar applications include batteries. Combined, solar and storage accounted for over 80% of new applications.
REUTERS BY NEIL FORD, MAY 25, 2023Texas battery rush: Oil state's power woes fuel energy storage boom
To increase reliability, Texas lawmakers this week approved increased subsidies for natural gas power facilities. However, the legislation also includes clauses that, according to business associations, could promote investment in battery storage.
REUTERS By Nichola Groom and Laila Kearney, May 31, 2023The social media president who ‘cleansed’ the judiciary and implemented mass incarceration
El Salvador run by ‘the world’s coolest dictator’
Technolibertarians see El Salvador as paradise, but Central America’s smallest state locks up more people than anywhere else on earth and its young president, Nayib Bukele, is ever more authoritarian.
Le Monde Diplomatique by Anne-Dominique Correa, TODAYImage:by Germán & CoYesterday we reflected on the following: Tuesday's chaos reflections... Is the current state of war is out of control?
The protracted conflict of attrition that both superpowers have been pursuing has proven to be unsuccessful.
The phrase "an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" is a well-known principle of justice that dates back to ancient times. It suggests that the punishment for a wrongdoing should be proportional to the harm caused by the offense. This concept has been debated and interpreted in various ways throughout history, but it remains a fundamental principle in many legal systems around the world.
The adage "An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" has its roots in the Code of Hammurabi, a legal code inscribed in the Akkadian language during the reign of King Hammurabi of Babylon between 1792 and 1750 BC. This expression is referenced in the Bible, more precisely in Matthew 5:38.
The military operations conducted by both superpowers, as evidenced by the recent missile strikes launched by Russia on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and the utilization of drones by Ukraine to target Moscow, indicate that the protracted conflict that both superpowers have been pursuing has not yielded the desired outcome of attrition. The fundamental principle of checks and balances has been eroded, resulting in a feeling of hopelessness and an illogical approach to justice, whereby each action is met with an equivalent and opposing reaction. It is imperative to tackle these concerns and reinstate equilibrium and impartiality in our political structures.
In the context of retributive justice, Mahatma Gandhi famously stated, "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind," a statement that remains pertinent in contemporary times. The pursuit of vengeance serves to sustain a culture of violence and devastation, resulting in an unceasing pattern of anguish and affliction. Instead, it is imperative that we endeavor to cultivate forgiveness and understanding as a means of attaining enduring peace and harmony in our global community. It is imperative to acknowledge that the experience of anger and resentment can impede our capacity to empathize with others, thereby limiting our ability to understand and relate to their perspectives. By cultivating compassion and empathy, it is possible to break away from this cycle and strive towards a more promising future that benefits all individuals. Let us reflect upon the of Gandhi and opt for the course of forgiveness and comprehension, even when confronted with challenging circumstances.
The topic of food inflation in Europe was addressed yesterday in a comprehensive article published by The New York Times.
Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe?A United Nations index of global food commodity prices, such as wheat, meat and vegetable oil, peaked in March 2022, immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is one of the largest grain producers. The war disrupted grain and oil production in the region and had global impact, too, worsening food crises in parts of East Africa and the Middle East.
This discourse pertains to the continuous drone and missile assaults carried out against non-combatants in Russia and Ukraine. The far-reaching consequences of the ongoing war have exceeded the initial predictions, highlighting the urgent need for a prompt resolution to the conflict in order to restore a state of peace.
Most Read…
NOW EXCLUSIVE WSJ: Ukraine and Allies Plan Peace Summit Without Russia…
Kyiv has strong European backing for a gathering before NATO meeting in July
Zelensky's peace plan aims to restore Ukraine's control, release prisoners of war, and prosecute war crimes. The proposal suggests addressing nuclear safety and food security, both allegedly jeopardized by Russia's occupation of a nuclear power plant and invasion.
BY BOJAN PANCEVSKI, LAURENCE NORMAN AND JAMES MARSON, MAY 30, 2023Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe?
Agricultural and energy costs are falling, but basic items remain stubbornly expensive for consumers.
NYT By Eshe Nelson, Reporting from London, TodayUS solar, storage builders dash west in major test for grids…
Rising solar and wind penetration increases the demand for storage and most new solar applications include batteries. Combined, solar and storage accounted for over 80% of new applications.
Reuters By Neil Ford, May 25, 2023Texas battery rush: Oil state's power woes fuel energy storage boom
To increase reliability, Texas lawmakers this week approved increased subsidies for natural gas power facilities. However, the legislation also includes clauses that, according to business associations, could promote investment in battery storage.
REUTERS By Nichola Groom and Laila Kearney, May 31, 2023The social media president who ‘cleansed’ the judiciary and implemented mass incarceration
El Salvador run by ‘the world’s coolest dictator’
Technolibertarians see El Salvador as paradise, but Central America’s smallest state locks up more people than anywhere else on earth and its young president, Nayib Bukele, is ever more authoritarian.
Le Monde Diplomatique by Anne-Dominique Correa, TODAYThe AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine/Editing by Germán & CoNOW EXCLUSIVE WSJ: Ukraine and Allies Plan Peace Summit Without Russia…
Kyiv has strong European backing for a gathering before NATO meeting in July
Zelensky's peace plan aims to restore Ukraine's control, release prisoners of war, and prosecute war crimes. The proposal suggests addressing nuclear safety and food security, both allegedly jeopardized by Russia's occupation of a nuclear power plant and invasion.
BY BOJAN PANCEVSKI, LAURENCE NORMAN AND JAMES MARSON, MAY 30, 2023Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s top adviser told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that Ukraine and its allies are planning a summit of global leaders that would exclude Russia, aimed at ending the war on Ukraine’s terms. Photo: The Wall Street Journal
KYIV, Ukraine—Ukraine and its allies are planning a summit of global leaders that would exclude Russia, aimed at garnering support for Kyiv’s terms for ending the war, according to a senior Ukrainian presidential adviser and European diplomats.
Plans for a gathering, while preliminary, have strong support from European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron who are lobbying for participation by countries that have sided with Russia or declined to take a position on the war.
“We require a unified plan of the responsible civilized world that really wants to live in peace,” said Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff. Yermak told The Wall Street Journal that direct negotiations with Russia weren’t possible as long as its troops remain in the country. Ukraine won’t compromise on its territorial integrity, he said.
European officials say they are working with Kyiv to recraft Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan in ways that will make it more acceptable to other global powers such as India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and China.
“The process is not possible without the whole world, including the leaders of the global south,” said Yermak, who is Zelensky’s top adviser.
Kyiv has made a concerted effort in recent months to engage with countries such as China, Brazil and India. Ukraine is ready to talk with all countries and hear their opinions, Yermak said, including representatives of China and Brazil, who visited this month.
Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan calls for restoring Ukraine’s control over its territory, returning prisoners of war and prosecuting war crimes. It also proposes addressing nuclear safety, which it says is compromised by Russia’s occupation of a nuclear power plant, and food security, by protecting grain exports that are hampered by Russia’s invasion.
President Biden and other top leaders from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be invited for the meeting, which Western diplomats hope can take place shortly before NATO’s annual summit that starts July 11. That gathering, in Vilnius, Lithuania, will focus on military support for Ukraine and Kyiv’s future relationship with the organization.
Zelensky early this year asked Macron to help him with international outreach to leaders such as China’s Xi Jinping, according to European diplomats. The talks later matured into plans to organize a conference, the people said. Macron has offered to host the conference in Paris, and Denmark and Sweden have also proposed hosting it, these people said.
No clear list of attendees has been established, but European officials have fanned out to capitals of leading world powers in recent weeks, seeking to bring Brazil, India, China and other non-Western countries on board.
One official involved in the discussions said they were hopeful that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would attend, but they were much less sure about Xi.
Modi has at times expressed his concerns about the war. Xi has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin several times since the war started but took more than a year to call Zelensky. Xi made the call after Macron visited him in Beijing. Chinese officials have repeatedly underscored their partnership with Russia and with Putin personally.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva earlier this month sent former Foreign Minister Celso Amorim to Kyiv and Moscow for talks, but he didn’t meet with Zelensky in Japan this month when both attended a Group of Seven summit.
A conference would build on Ukraine’s continuing diplomatic outreach to traditional allies of Russia: Zelensky recently traveled to a summit of the Arab League, while his foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has toured African countries.
The Western effort comes as other countries with far closer ties to Russia have sought to take the lead in diplomatic work to end the conflict. Both Brazil and China have sent peace envoys to Moscow and European capitals for discussions on ending the war. Neither country has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and both have advocated a quick cease-fire, which would leave Russia controlling swaths of Ukraine, for now.
The peace meeting would seek to place Ukraine and its allies back at the center of that international diplomacy. European officials aim to ensure that future talks take Kyiv’s plan as the diplomatic reference point.
“No Russians but everybody else will be welcomed,” a senior European diplomat said of summit planning.
The timing of the conference ahead of the NATO meeting would send a signal to the rest of the world that while Europe and the U.S. will keep supporting Ukraine with arms, they are also seeking diplomatic solutions to a conflict whose economic spillovers have hurt much of the developing world. Western countries have come under fire from rivals including China and Brazil for sending arms to Ukraine, which those countries say is fueling the conflict.
The idea for the conference was initially hatched in a conversation between Macron and Zelensky in Paris in February, European diplomats said, where the French leader pressed his Ukrainian counterpart to accept that there would eventually need to be peace talks with the Kremlin.
Macron raised the issue with Xi during a recent visit to Beijing. The idea was also floated at this month’s meeting of leaders from the Group of Seven advanced democracies conference in Japan, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials. Zelensky also attended that meeting, as did the leaders of India, Brazil and Indonesia.
On Tuesday, Zelensky spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. A German statement said the two leaders would stay in close contact “with a view to mobilizing global support for a peace solution.”
Senior Ukrainian officials have repeatedly said they would continue their fight against Russia unless Moscow is prepared to engage with its peace plan, which rejects a temporary cease-fire and calls for Russian forces to be withdrawn before talks start.
Russia has said it is open to peace talks but on the condition that Ukraine effectively recognize the territories it has annexed. U.S. officials have said recently that they believe the likelihood for meaningful diplomacy before the end of the year is low.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe?
Source: Britain’s Office for National Statistics, Italy’s Industry Ministry and Germany’s Federal Statistical Office By Rebecca LiebermanAgricultural and energy costs are falling, but basic items remain stubbornly expensive for consumers.
NYT By Eshe Nelson, Reporting from London, TodayIt is the most basic of staple food items: sliced white bread. In Britain, the average price of a loaf was 28 percent higher in April, at 1.39 pounds, or $1.72, than it was a year earlier.
In Italy, the price of spaghetti and other pasta, a fixture of the Italian diet, has risen nearly 17 percent from the year before. In Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, cheese prices are nearly 40 percent higher than a year ago, and potatoes cost 14 percent more.
Throughout the European Union, consumer food prices were on average nearly 17 percent higher in April than a year earlier, a slight slowdown from the previous month, which set the fastest pace of growth in over two and a half decades. The situation is worse in Britain than in its Western European neighbors: Food and nonalcoholic drink prices were 19 percent higher, the quickest pace of annual food inflation in more than 45 years. By comparison, the annual rate of U.S. food inflation was 7.7 percent.
The percent increase in staple food prices in the E.U. over the last year
Data as of April 2023
Source: Eurostat By Rebecca LiebermanPersistent food inflation is squeezing low-income households and troubling European politicians. (In Italy, the government held a meeting this month to discuss soaring pasta prices.)
At the same time, the major costs that go into making food products, including fuel, wheat and other agricultural commodities, have been falling in international markets for much of the past year — raising questions about why food prices for consumers remain so high in Europe. And with rising labor costs and the possibility of profiteering, food prices are unlikely to come down anytime soon. More broadly, rising prices could also put pressure on central banks to keep interest rates high, potentially restraining economic growth.
What is driving up food prices?
Behind the sticker price for a loaf of bread includes the costs for not only key ingredients but also processing, packaging, transport, wages, storage and company markups.
A United Nations index of global food commodity prices, such as wheat, meat and vegetable oil, peaked in March 2022, immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is one of the largest grain producers. The war disrupted grain and oil production in the region and had global impact, too, worsening food crises in parts of East Africa and the Middle East.
But the worst was avoided, in part because of a deal to export grain from Ukraine. European wheat prices have declined about 40 percent since last May. Global vegetable oil prices are down about 50 percent. But there is still a ways to go: The United Nations’ food price index was 34 percent higher in April than its 2019 average.
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Eurostat/ By Karl RussellAside from commodity prices, Europe has experienced particularly harsh increases in costs along the food supply chain.
Energy prices soared because the war forced Europe to rapidly replace Russian gas with new supplies, pushing up the costs of food production, transport and storage.
Though wholesale energy prices have fallen back down recently, retailers warn there’s a long lag — perhaps up to a year — before consumers will see the benefits of that because energy contracts were made months before, most likely reflecting those higher prices.
And the tight labor markets in Europe with high job vacancy rates and low levels of unemployment are forcing employers, including food companies, to push up wages to attract workers. This in turn drives up costs for businesses, including in the food sector.
Is profiteering keeping prices high?
Suspicions are growing among consumers, trade unions and some economists that inflation could be kept needlessly high by companies raising prices above their costs to protect profit margins. The European Central Bank said that at the end of last year, corporate profits were contributing to domestic inflation as much as wage growth, but it did not say if any industries had made excessive profits.
Economists at Allianz, the German insurer and asset manager, estimate that 10 to 20 percent of food inflation in Europe can be attributed to profiteering. “There is part of the food price inflation that we see which is not explainable, easily,” said Ludovic Subran, the chief economist at Allianz.
But the lack of detailed data about corporate profits and supply chains has caused a rift in economic opinions.
Some economists and food retailers have pointed fingers at big global food producers, which have sustained double-digit profit margins while raising prices. In April, the Swiss giant Nestlé said it expected its profit margin this year to be about the same as it was last year, about 17 percent, while it reported raising prices almost 10 percent in the first quarter.
Even taking into account expenses like transport and accounting for pricing lags from farms to shelves, Mr. Subran said he would have expected food inflation to come down by now.
In Britain, some economists are telling a different story. Michael Saunders, an economist at Oxford Economics and former rate-setter at the Bank of England, said in a note to clients in May that “greedflation” was not the culprit. Most of the increase in inflation reflects the higher cost of energy and other commodities, he said.
Rather than rising, total profits for nonfinancial companies in Britain, excluding the oil and gas industry, have fallen over the past year, he said.
Britain’s competition regulator also said that it hadn’t seen evidence of competition concerns in the grocery sector, but that it was stepping up its investigation into “cost of living pressures.”
Have food prices peaked?
Despite well-publicized cuts to milk prices in Britain, food prices in general are unlikely to go down in the near future.
Instead, policymakers are closely watching for a slowdown in the rate of increases.
There are tentative signs that the pace of food inflation — the double-digit increase in annual prices — has reached its pinnacle. In April, the rate fell in the European Union for the first time in two years.
Sources: U.K. Office for National Statistics; EurostatBy Karl RussellBut the slowdown from here is likely to be gradual.
“It appears to be taking longer for food price pressures to work their way through the system this time than we had expected,” Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said this month.
Across the continent, some governments are intervening by capping prices on food essentials, rather than waiting for the economic debates about corporate profiteering to play out. In France, the government is pushing an “anti-inflation quarter,” asking food retailers to cut prices on some products until June. But the finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, said this month that he wanted food producers to contribute more to the effort, warning they could face tax penalties to recover any margins unfairly made at the expense of consumers if they refuse to return to negotiations.
These efforts may help some shoppers, but on the whole there is little to comfort Europeans. Food prices are unlikely to decline — it’s likely only that the pace of increases will slow later this year.
Image: REUTERS/Bridget BennettUS solar, storage builders dash west in major test for grids
Rising solar and wind penetration increases the demand for storage and most new solar applications include batteries. Combined, solar and storage accounted for over 80% of new applications.
Reuters By Neil Ford, May 25, 2023The latest U.S. grid connection (interconnection) data highlights the soaring demand for renewable energy projects as federal and state authorities race towards decarbonisation goals.
Annual grid connection applications hiked by 40% in 2022 to over 700 GW as demand for solar and storage projects soared, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) said in its annual grid connection report.
In an emerging trend, the West region outside California’s CAISO network saw the fastest growth as project applications jumped 306 GW to leave 597 GW of capacity in the queue. The MISO market in Central U.S. now has the second-largest queue, at 334 GW, surpassing California's CAISO grid and the PJM network in the East.
The rise in applications in the West and MISO outweighed a drop in new applications in CAISO and PJM after the grid operators shelved new applications to tackle a backlog of projects.
CHART: Power capacity in U.S. grid connection queuesSource: Berkeley Lab, April 2023The Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act has boosted the economics of renewable energy nationwide, offering tax credits for solar and wind projects and for the first time, stand-alone energy storage.
Some developers have turned their attention to the West while CAISO and PJM reduce their backlogs, but the West also offers strong solar and wind resources along with good land availability and growing power demand is combining with rising renewable energy targets as states and utilities look to decarbonise their power networks.
California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico have raised state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) or set out 100% clean energy targets over the last few years, Aaron Vander Vorst, Head of Growth Strategy and transmission at operator Enel North America, told Reuters Events. A large international developer, Enel is developing solar, wind and storage projects across the West.
Utilities such as Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), Arizona Public Service (APS) and PacifiCorp have set decarbonization targets and are issuing requests for proposals for renewable energy that are driving demand, Joseph Rand, Energy Policy Researcher at Lawrence Berkeley Lab, said. These targets will continue to support demand going forward, he said.
The regional utilities manage grid connections in the non-ISO West and the surge in applications will severely test their ability to process applications efficiently and avoid withdrawals that disrupt other projects in the queue.
Nationwide, grid connection delays are growing, Berkeley Lab warned in its report. Much of the capacity will not be built and a growing number of developers are withdrawing applications at a later stage, it said.
Power needs
Across the U.S., 350 GW of solar projects and 202 GW of storage entered grid connection queues last year, the data from Berkeley Lab shows.
Rising solar and wind penetration increases the demand for storage and most new solar applications include batteries. Combined, solar and storage accounted for over 80% of new applications.
In some regions, rising population levels and growing economic activity is supporting demand for renewable energy. In the Salt River Project (SRP) service area in central Arizona, rising power demand combined with a push to reduce carbon emissions is driving up grid connection applications, SRP Director of Resource Planning Grant Smedley told Reuters Events.
SRP predicts peak electricity demand will grow by 1.2 GW between 2023 and 2025, a rise of 16%, due to population growth around the city of Phoenix. SRP is a not-for-profit organization that provides power to 2 million people.
Some of the new projects in the West lie on federal land, where the Biden administration is looking to accelerate deployment. The Interior Department aims to permit 25 GW of renewable energy on federal lands by 2025 and by March 2023 it had approved 8.2 GW of projects, mostly solar.
Developers may also be attracted by lower deposit requirements from some of the utility-owned transmission operators, Vander Vorst said.
"Any transmission company still following [the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s] original tariff rules will have lower deposit requirements than regions which have reformed their rules to discourage high volumes of [grid connection] requests," he noted.
California's power demand is set to hike on the back of ambitious climate objectives. Some developers are looking to export into CAISO but transmission capacity is now largely occupied and there are additional regulatory barriers to cross networks, Vander Vorst said.
Enel is among a group of stakeholders advocating a regional transmission operator (RTO) that spans the whole of the West, including California.
A Western RTO would “reduce barriers to effectively sharing power across the region” and encourage more proactive and cost-effective expansion of the transmission system, Vander Vorst said. A reform bill to create a regional RTO has been tabled in the California legislature but it requires approval by lawmakers and it will take years for any reforms to be fully implemented.
Growing queues
As applications surge across the U.S., the average time from connection request to plant operations rose to around five years in 2022, Berkeley Lab said.
The time from connection request to connection approval varied widely across the non-ISO West, but the average was in line with the national average at around three years, the data showed.
CHART: U.S. grid connection approval times, by marketIR = Interconnection Request IA = Interconnection Approval Source: Berkeley Lab, April 2023Longer timelines increase project costs. Grid connection costs and project withdrawals are highest in congested grids such as the expansive PJM network, where costs for active projects in the queue have grown eightfold since 2019, Berkeley Lab said in a separate study published in January.
Reforms to application processing are critical to reduce queues going forward. Southwest Power Pool (SPP) is leading efforts to reduce approval times by assessing projects in groups, and this could soon be rolled out by other network operators under new rules proposed by the FERC.
Developers need access to grid connection data to assess project risks and FERC is also considering imposing a two-tier process to filter out speculative requests. Developers would gain access to preliminary data before filing a formal grid connection request.
Arizona’s SRP has already found that the ‘first come, first served’ grid connection process has led to a "multitude of speculative [grid connection] requests," lengthening the timeline required to conduct grid connection studies, Smedley said.
This is creating a feedback loop where developers often submit speculative grid connection requests to get prospective projects in the queue in an attempt to meet potential future timelines, he said.
An engineer checks an inverter next to battery banks at GlidePath's Byrd Ranch energy storage facility in Sweeny, Texas, U.S., May 23, 2023. REUTERS/Adrees LatifTexas battery rush: Oil state's power woes fuel energy storage boom
To increase reliability, Texas lawmakers this week approved increased subsidies for natural gas power facilities. However, the legislation also includes clauses that, according to business associations, could promote investment in battery storage.
REUTERS By Nichola Groom and Laila Kearney, May 31, 2023May 31 (Reuters) - BlackRock, Korea's SK, Switzerland's UBS and other companies are chasing an investment boom in battery storage plants in Texas, lured by the prospect of earning double-digit returns from the power grid problems plaguing the state, according to project owners, developers and suppliers.
Projects coming online are generating returns of around 20%, compared with single digit returns for solar and wind projects, according to Rhett Bennett, CEO of Black Mountain Energy Storage, one of the top developers in the state.
"Resolving grid issues with utility-scale energy storage is probably the hottest thing out there,” he said.
The rapid expansion of battery storage could help prevent a repeat of the February 2021 ice storm and grid collapse which killed 246 people and left millions of Texans without power for days.
The battery rush also puts the Republican-controlled state at the forefront of President Joe Biden's push to expand renewable energy use.
Reuters drew on previously unreported data and interviewed more than a dozen executives from private equity firms, utility companies and energy storage providers involved in some of the biggest battery storage deals for this report. They described a rush to take advantage of the high returns before they erode.
Power prices in Texas can swing from highs of about $90 per megawatt hour (MWh) on a normal summer day to nearly $3,000 per MWh when demand surges on a day with less wind power, according to a simulation by the federal government's U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That volatility, a product of demand and higher reliance on intermittent wind and solar energy, has fueled a rush to install battery plants that store electricity when it is cheap and abundant and sell when supplies tighten and prices soar.
Texas last year accounted for 31% of new U.S. grid-scale energy storage, according to energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, second only to California which has had a state mandate for battery development for a decade.
While declining, Texas’s share of U.S. grid-scale energy storage capacity will stay the second largest in the country, next only to California where battery development has been state-supported for years.
LEADER IN ENERGY STORAGE
And Texas is expected to account for nearly a quarter of the U.S. grid-scale storage market over the next five years, according to Wood Mackenzie projections shared with Reuters.
Developers and energy traders said locations offering the highest returns -- in strapped areas of the grid -- will become increasingly scarce as more storage comes online and electricity prices stabilize.
Texas lawmakers this week voted to provide new subsidies for natural gas power plants in a bid to shore up reliability. But the legislation also contains provisions that industry groups said could encourage investment in battery storage.
Amid the battery rush, BlackRock acquired developer Jupiter Power from private equity firm EnCap Investments late last year. Korea's SK E&S acquired Key Capture Energy from Vision Ridge Partners in 2021 and UBS bought five Texas projects from Black Mountain last year for a combined 700 megawatts (MW) of energy storage. None of the sales' prices were disclosed.
SK E&S said its acquisition of Key Capture was part of a strategy to invest in U.S. grid resiliency.
"SK E&S views energy storage solutions in Texas and across the U.S. as a core technology that supports a new energy infrastructure system to ensure American homes and businesses have affordable power," the company said in a statement.
UBS and BlackRock declined to comment.
Installed generating capacity in energy storage is forecast by the government to rise over 10 times by 2050 from 2023 as potential investors benefit from new tax credit for the sector under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
U.S. energy storage companies attracted $5.5 billion in investment last year, according to Mercom Capital Group. The U.S. is projected to install 65 gigawatts (GW) of grid storage over the next five years, 15 times the 4 GW added last year, according to Wood Mackenzie, buoyed by a 30% tax credit for energy storage in Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the grid that serves most of the state, has 3.2 GW of energy storage capacity, according to its own data.
The authority said in a statement that more storage was in development. It has pending requests to connect to the grid from plants offering more than 96 GW in storage, according to ERCOT data. ERCOT declined an interview request.
'CLOAK AND DAGGER'
"It's cheaper to build there, the revenue is higher, and the problems are real," said Andrew Waranch, president of Spearmint Energy, which acquired about 1 GW of Texas projects in the last year.
While some investors have focused on specific locations with maximum volatility, more than 80% of the revenue comes from the Ancillary Services Market, which seeks to stabilize power supply across the grid, according to David Miller, vice president of business development at Gridmatic, which uses artificial intelligence to optimize battery use.
Miller said he expects ancillary market prices to "collapse" as more battery storage comes online.
Average energy storage revenue already fell about 18% last year, according to a Gridmatic analysis.
Waranch said battery storage plants coming online in 2025 could take up to eight years to break even compared with four or less for plants that come online in 2023.
The urgency has helped fuel a rush to install projects that can get faster regulatory clearance.
Stem Inc (STEM.N) and other developers said they are focusing on small projects of under 10 MW because they face fewer regulatory requirements.
The diminishing returns have also intensified competition for sites in areas with the wildest wholesale power price fluctuations, industry executives said.
"We want to get maximum volatility," said American Enerpower Chairman Dick Lewis, who scours Texas for plots of land near constrained parts of the grid to develop battery plants. "Placement is very important."
So is timing, said Andrew Tang, vice president of energy storage and optimization at Finland's Wartsila, which has supplied about a third of the Texas battery market.
"There's a little bit of cloak and dagger secrecy," he said. "If they think they've seen a trading opportunity that exists in the marketplace, they don't want to openly brag about it because someone else will jump in and therefore get rid of the arbitrage opportunity," he said.
Chris McKissack, CEO of storage developer GlidePath, said that batteries will likely remain a good bet for a long time -- even if Texas is seeking to bolster traditional forms of energy like natural gas.
"If no new generation is built and all you've got is old generation and load growth, you've got even more volatility," McKissack said. And that, he said, could lead to more opportunity for storage.
Punishment: MS-13 and Barrio 18 gang members arrive at the new Terrorist Confinement Centre in Tecoluca, El Salvador, 25 February 2023/ Press Secretary of the Presidency of El Salvador · Handout · Anadolu/The photograph has undergone a process of black and white conversion and refocusing, carried out by Germán & Co.The social media president who ‘cleansed’ the judiciary and implemented mass incarceration
El Salvador run by ‘the world’s coolest dictator’
Technolibertarians see El Salvador as paradise, but Central America’s smallest state locks up more people than anywhere else on earth and its young president, Nayib Bukele, is ever more authoritarian.
Le Monde Diplomatique by Anne-Dominique Correa, TODAYAgroup of tourists in baseball caps and colourful Hawaiian shorts wandered the sandy alleys of El Zonte, a surf spot an hour from the capital, San Salvador. They spoke English with American, Australian and German accents. They used the smartest new smartphones to pay for coconuts and pupusas (thick tortillas filled with cheese and beans) with Bitcoin using a QR code. Then, with exotic cocktails in hand, they took selfies as the sun went down, marvelling at tiny hatchling turtles crawling clumsily down the beach toward the sea.
El Zonte has been experimenting with Bitcoin for two years, earning it the nickname ‘Bitcoin Beach.’ In June 2021 El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele declared it legal tender, a world first, though Bitcoin lacks some key properties of a currency (1). These foreign visitors had made a special trip to El Zonte during the Adopting Bitcoin conference held in San Salvador in mid-November 2022. Some had not bought a ticket home yet. ‘I’m thinking of moving here,’ said Jesse Shrader, co-founder of Amboss, a US startup. ‘With the collapse of FTX [the second largest cryptocurrency platform, on 11 November], the US may start regulating. There’s more freedom here.’
Since adopting Bitcoin, El Salvador has become the destination of choice for technolibertarians, who see this decentralised asset as laying the foundations for their utopia. ‘Many tech-savvy people, content creators, influencers and digital nomads have moved here,’ said Jeremy, who served in the US military and recently settled in El Salvador (he requested anonymity). Soon after arriving, he set up a business to help members of the new diaspora meet administrative requirements. ‘Most come from countries like Canada, New Zealand, Australia, the US, Belgium, the Netherlands or Denmark,’ he said at his apartment in an upscale neighbourhood of San Salvador. ‘These are countries where people that lived there thought that they were living in a more liberal democracy. But after the restrictions around the pandemic, they realised probably for the first time how powerful and restrictive the state was in their day-to-day life… They immediately began peeking over the fence to see if the grass was a little bit greener somewhere else.’
‘Bitcoin City’
Bukele, a member of tech-savvy Generation Y, is fulfilling all their fantasies. In November 2021 he announced ‘Bitcoin City’, which will be built at the foot of the Conchagua volcano in the east of the country. ‘When Alexander the Great conquered the world, he created his Alexandrias,’ he announced from the podium that he had mounted to AC/DC’s You Shook Me All Night Long. ‘For Bitcoin to spread worldwide, we must build the first [Bitcoin] Alexandria here in El Salvador.’ Construction costs will be funded by issuing $1bn in crypto-backed bonds: ‘volcano bonds.’ Crypto-mining activities will be powered by geothermal energy from the volcano. VAT is the only tax that will be levied. ‘A heaven for freedom,’ Jeremy reckoned.
For now, however, only Bitcoin enthusiasts are truly benefiting from this paradise. Beyond El Zonte, the country seems more like a huge prison. On 26 March 2022, following the apparent breakdown of a truce between El Salvador’s warring gangs and the government, the country experienced its bloodiest day in two decades: over 60 people were killed by the MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs. The next day, Bukele declared a state of emergency. Since then, police have patrolled the streets and entire towns have been cordoned off by the army.
More than 60,000 people have been imprisoned, meaning El Salvador has the highest incarceration rate in the world. According to World Prison Brief, using UN data, El Salvador currently holds 1,086 people per 100,000 inhabitants in prison. An article in La Prensa Gráfica, El Salvador’s biggest newspaper, drawing on data from the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ), suggests an even higher rate of 1,220 detainees per 100,000. To deal with this exploding prison population, the government opened a hastily built ‘terrorist confinement centre’ in February for an additional 40,000 prisoners.
So is Bukele’s El Salvador symbolised by a futuristic city a stone’s throw from a prison? ‘Bukele’s outer shell is painted in very bright, fresh, trendy colours,’ says opposition member of parliament Claudia Ortiz of the Vamos (Let’s Go) party. ‘But it hides an authoritarian core that recalls our recent history.’ From 1980 to 1992, a civil war that was characterised by violence perpetrated by the armed forces claimed around 75,000 lives. A further 8,000 disappeared.
When he was elected in February 2019, Bukele embodied hope of renewal. ‘The country can finally turn the page on the postwar period and embrace the future,’ he declared on election night, after winning 53% of the vote in the first round under the banner of the conservative Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA). At 37 he had broken away from the bipartisanship of the rightwing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the leftwing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), which had been in power since the end of the civil war but had failed to eradicate poverty and violence.
The world, the new world, is no longer in this General Assembly, but in the place where this photo will go. Believe me, many more people will see this selfie than will hear this speechNayib Bukele
Although Bukele had risen to power within the ranks of the FMLN, in particular as mayor of San Salvador (2015-19), the press portrayed him as an outsider (The New York Times, 3 February 2019), an ‘anti-system candidate’ (La Croix, 2 February 2019) and even ‘a new Macron’ (Le Soir, 5 February 2019). Seduced by his tech entrepreneur appearance, his youth and his ‘flair for social media,’ the Washington Post hailed his ‘non-ideological’ position and ‘refreshing’ ideas (5 February 2019).
But sometimes the media bubble has to burst. ‘We’ve never experienced so many democratic rollbacks’ since the peace accords of 1992, says Ortiz. As soon as he took office, Bukele fired FMLN-affiliated civil servants via Twitter. Then, on 8 February 2020, he marched into the Legislative Assembly with a police and military escort to force opposition lawmakers, then still in the majority, to approve a $109m loan to fund his security plans. The Legislative Assembly may have been saved that day through divine intervention; after seeming to pray, Bukele left the chamber and went to greet the crowd outside. ‘God said to me: patience, patience, patience,’ he told them. ‘We’ll get rid of [opposition politicians] democratically’ (2).
A few months later, he did: on 28 February 2021 his new party Nuevas Ideas (New Ideas), in alliance with GANA, won an absolute parliamentary majority, enabling him to steamroller all obstacles. On 1 May 2021 Bukele ‘cleansed’ the judiciary (3). The Legislative Assembly removed the judges from the CSJ’s constitutional chamber, which had stopped him using the army to arrest people for breaching the pandemic lockdown, and dismissed the attorney general. Then, on 27 September 2021, the assembly passed a law forcing a third of judges and prosecutors to retire. ‘There’s no longer independent justice,’ said Juan Antonio Durán, one of the judges who opposed this decision. He claims he has been intimidated by the government.
‘Assaults on democracy are common’
Since Bukele declared war on the gangs, ‘these assaults on democracy have become common,’ says Ortiz, one of the few lawmakers to vote against the tenth renewal of the state of emergency this January. According to the NGO Cristosal, which has recorded 4,071 complaints of abuse of power since 26 March, thousands of innocent people have been detained. ‘Most arrests are arbitrary. There’s been no prior investigation or arrest warrant,’ according to Abrego Verdugo, director of the NGO’s strategic litigation programme. According to the testimonies they’ve collected, having a tattoo (a sign of gang connections) or a criminal record, living in a slum run by gangs, or simply an anonymous tip-off from a neighbour can get someone arrested. This wave of arrests has coincided with an unusual increase in the number of disappearances.
In San Salvador, detainees’ families keep vigil outside prisons and government buildings, hoping for news of loved ones. Marta, who was waiting with her 15-year-old daughter, asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals. Wearing a mask and hoodie, Marta stood by the fence round the building of the prosecutor’s office, staring at the ground. Her 22-year-old son was arrested on 28 May last year while on his daily run transporting fruit and vegetables to vendors in his village of San Vicente, about 100km from the capital. Like most detainees, he was accused of being a gang member and is being held in Izalco prison, 60km west of San Salvador.
His mother suspects the arrest was due to a vendetta. ‘My son isn’t a bad boy,’ she insists. When the youngest of her four daughters was raped by a pandillero (gang member) a few years ago, Marta pressed charges and the perpetrator was imprisoned. Now she’s convinced he denounced her son in return for a reduced sentence. But even if she can prove this, her son’s fate is uncertain. The overwhelmed justice system is mishandling cases. ‘Sometimes public defenders deal with over 300 cases and have just five minutes to make a statement,’ says Verdugo. ‘Hearings happen en masse. The largest judged 600 prisoners in one go.’ Marta’s son’s court-appointed lawyer had scheduled a meeting with her today, but didn’t show up. ‘Sometimes he comes. Sometimes he doesn’t.’ As for her son, ‘we don’t even know if he’s alive or dead.’
‘In a war there are always innocent victims and collateral damage,’ Salvadoran vice-president Félix Ulloa told Prensa Gráfica in July 2022. Meanwhile, Bukele appears fixated on the homicide rate. If it goes down, he claims a success. ‘We’re about to conclude the safest month in our history, in the safest year of our history,’ he boasted on Twitter on 31 December, announcing 2022’s 50% drop in homicides (495) compared to the previous year (1,147) (4). He’s even threatened to make prison conditions still harsher. ‘If prisoners provoke a crime spike, we’ll withdraw food from prisons,’ he announced on Twitter in April 2022. On 1 November, the traditional Day of the Dead, Bukele forced inmates to take hammers to the graves of former gang members. Anyone criticising such measures is accused of defending the gangs.
Highest approval rating
Despite all this, Bukele’s popularity rating remains sky-high. According to the latest Gallup poll (October 2022), he enjoys 86% support, the highest presidential approval rating in Latin America. ‘I’m the coolest dictator in the whole world,’ he joked in September 2021 (5), then added this description to his Twitter bio. In the past, Salvadoran presidents were relatively unknown, but Bukele is seen as an inspiration abroad. In Chile, rightwing parliamentarian Gaspar Rivas declared himself ‘the new Bukele’ when he presented a bill to toughen anti-crime measures in August 2022 (6). In Ecuador in September 2022 the mayor of Guayaquil, Cynthia Viteri, asked President Guillermo Lasso to copy Bukele’s policy to tackle crime. Following Bukele’s lead, Honduras’ president Xiomara Castro declared a state of emergency last November to wage a ‘war against gang extortion’ (7).
What explains Bukele’s popularity? ‘The government successfully sells perceptions,’ says Oscar Ortiz, who was a guerrilla before becoming vice-president of El Salvador under President Sánchez Cerén (FMLN, 2014-19). Aside from the reduction in recorded violence, Bukele has not solved the country’s main problems: El Salvador will have the lowest growth rate in Central America in 2023 (1.6%). Furthermore, extreme poverty rose from 4.6% to 7.8% between 2019 and 2021, and half the population is going hungry (8).
But Bukele is a master of marketing. Before entering politics, he ran a family advertising business, Obermet, which helped organise FMLN campaigns. As president, he has applied his expertise to government propaganda, flooding YouTube with slick videos and bombarding Twitter with viral hashtags. Bukele is not shy about creating a buzz, often putting himself centre-stage. In September 2019 he made headlines by taking a selfie on the podium of the UN General Assembly before his maiden speech. ‘The world, the new world, is no longer in this General Assembly, but in the place where this photo will go,’ he said. ‘Believe me, many more people will see this selfie than will hear this speech’ (9). He was right: the photo went viral worldwide.
‘According to our research, it takes Bukele 12 hours to get a subject trending on social media, while social movements need 501 hours,’ says Amparo Marroquín, a communications studies researcher at the Central American University (UCA). ‘When we want to talk about unjustified arrests, his huge PR machine crushes us.’
However, the Salvadoran president rarely exposes himself to press scrutiny. No member of his party or government responded to my interview requests. ‘Bukele’s like a brand that needs to be protected,’ said Florencia Vilanova, the Salvadoran ambassador to Germany, showing a delegation of German Bitcoiners round El Zonte during the Adopting Bitcoin conference. Bukele prefers to promote that brand to influencers or YouTubers, who rarely ask tough questions. On 5 March 2021, for example, he gave a lengthy interview to Juan Bertheau and Luisito Comunica, whose YouTube channel has more subscribers than the population of El Salvador.
The government’s image obsession appears to orientate its politics. Its new party, Nuevas Ideas, seems like an empty shell: it declares no principles in its statutes, nor has it set out a political programme. ‘Once you take away the spectacle, the fireworks, you realise this government’s not changing anything in the country,’ says Ricardo Castañeda, an economist at the Central American Institute of Fiscal Studies (ICEFI). ‘The adoption of Bitcoin is an excellent illustration of this,’ he added: a measure bound to fail.
On its launch in June 2021 Bukele argued that Bitcoin would promote financial inclusion for non-banked Salvadorans (70% of the population) and lower the cost of money transfers from the Salvadoran diaspora in the US (23% of GDP in 2021). Nearly two years later, there’s little sign of these benefits. In the capital, almost no businesses accept cryptocurrency payments and only 2% of transfers from the diaspora use it. Now, due to the fall in Bitcoin’s value, public funds that the government held in the cryptocurrency (an unverifiable amount of $107m according to Nayibtracker.com) have lost more than half their original value. ‘You might as well entrust the country’s economic policy to a casino,’ says Castañeda.
In an interview with Tucker Carlson on Fox News last November, President Bukele acknowledged that adopting Bitcoin amounted to a massive rebranding exercise. But El Salvador isn’t a consumer brand: so how long will the illusion last?
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe?
Agricultural and energy costs are falling, but basic items remain stubbornly expensive for consumers.
NYT BY ESHE NELSON, REPORTING FROM LONDON, TODAYIt is the most basic of staple food items: sliced white bread. In Britain, the average price of a loaf was 28 percent higher in April, at 1.39 pounds, or $1.72, than it was a year earlier.
In Italy, the price of spaghetti and other pasta, a fixture of the Italian diet, has risen nearly 17 percent from the year before. In Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, cheese prices are nearly 40 percent higher than a year ago, and potatoes cost 14 percent more.
Throughout the European Union, consumer food prices were on average nearly 17 percent higher in April than a year earlier, a slight slowdown from the previous month, which set the fastest pace of growth in over two and a half decades. The situation is worse in Britain than in its Western European neighbors: Food and nonalcoholic drink prices were 19 percent higher, the quickest pace of annual food inflation in more than 45 years. By comparison, the annual rate of U.S. food inflation was 7.7 percent.
Source: Britain’s Office for National Statistics, Italy’s Industry Ministry and Germany’s Federal Statistical Office By Rebecca Lieberman
Source: Britain’s Office for National Statistics, Italy’s Industry Ministry and Germany’s Federal Statistical Office By Rebecca LiebermanAgricultural and energy costs are falling, but basic items remain stubbornly expensive for consumers.
NYT BY ESHE NELSON, REPORTING FROM LONDON, TODAYIt is the most basic of staple food items: sliced white bread. In Britain, the average price of a loaf was 28 percent higher in April, at 1.39 pounds, or $1.72, than it was a year earlier.
In Italy, the price of spaghetti and other pasta, a fixture of the Italian diet, has risen nearly 17 percent from the year before. In Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, cheese prices are nearly 40 percent higher than a year ago, and potatoes cost 14 percent more.
Throughout the European Union, consumer food prices were on average nearly 17 percent higher in April than a year earlier, a slight slowdown from the previous month, which set the fastest pace of growth in over two and a half decades. The situation is worse in Britain than in its Western European neighbors: Food and nonalcoholic drink prices were 19 percent higher, the quickest pace of annual food inflation in more than 45 years. By comparison, the annual rate of U.S. food inflation was 7.7 percent.
The percent increase in staple food prices in the E.U. over the last year
DATA AS OF APRIL 2023Source: Eurostat By Rebecca LiebermanPersistent food inflation is squeezing low-income households and troubling European politicians. (In Italy, the government held a meeting this month to discuss soaring pasta prices.)
At the same time, the major costs that go into making food products, including fuel, wheat and other agricultural commodities, have been falling in international markets for much of the past year — raising questions about why food prices for consumers remain so high in Europe. And with rising labor costs and the possibility of profiteering, food prices are unlikely to come down anytime soon. More broadly, rising prices could also put pressure on central banks to keep interest rates high, potentially restraining economic growth.
What is driving up food prices?
Behind the sticker price for a loaf of bread includes the costs for not only key ingredients but also processing, packaging, transport, wages, storage and company markups.
A United Nations index of global food commodity prices, such as wheat, meat and vegetable oil, peaked in March 2022, immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is one of the largest grain producers. The war disrupted grain and oil production in the region and had global impact, too, worsening food crises in parts of East Africa and the Middle East.
But the worst was avoided, in part because of a deal to export grain from Ukraine. European wheat prices have declined about 40 percent since last May. Global vegetable oil prices are down about 50 percent. But there is still a ways to go: The United Nations’ food price index was 34 percent higher in April than its 2019 average.
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Eurostat/ By Karl RussellAside from commodity prices, Europe has experienced particularly harsh increases in costs along the food supply chain.
Energy prices soared because the war forced Europe to rapidly replace Russian gas with new supplies, pushing up the costs of food production, transport and storage.
Though wholesale energy prices have fallen back down recently, retailers warn there’s a long lag — perhaps up to a year — before consumers will see the benefits of that because energy contracts were made months before, most likely reflecting those higher prices.
And the tight labor markets in Europe with high job vacancy rates and low levels of unemployment are forcing employers, including food companies, to push up wages to attract workers. This in turn drives up costs for businesses, including in the food sector.
Is profiteering keeping prices high?
Suspicions are growing among consumers, trade unions and some economists that inflation could be kept needlessly high by companies raising prices above their costs to protect profit margins. The European Central Bank said that at the end of last year, corporate profits were contributing to domestic inflation as much as wage growth, but it did not say if any industries had made excessive profits.
Economists at Allianz, the German insurer and asset manager, estimate that 10 to 20 percent of food inflation in Europe can be attributed to profiteering. “There is part of the food price inflation that we see which is not explainable, easily,” said Ludovic Subran, the chief economist at Allianz.
But the lack of detailed data about corporate profits and supply chains has caused a rift in economic opinions.
Some economists and food retailers have pointed fingers at big global food producers, which have sustained double-digit profit margins while raising prices. In April, the Swiss giant Nestlé said it expected its profit margin this year to be about the same as it was last year, about 17 percent, while it reported raising prices almost 10 percent in the first quarter.
Even taking into account expenses like transport and accounting for pricing lags from farms to shelves, Mr. Subran said he would have expected food inflation to come down by now.
In Britain, some economists are telling a different story. Michael Saunders, an economist at Oxford Economics and former rate-setter at the Bank of England, said in a note to clients in May that “greedflation” was not the culprit. Most of the increase in inflation reflects the higher cost of energy and other commodities, he said.
Rather than rising, total profits for nonfinancial companies in Britain, excluding the oil and gas industry, have fallen over the past year, he said.
Britain’s competition regulator also said that it hadn’t seen evidence of competition concerns in the grocery sector, but that it was stepping up its investigation into “cost of living pressures.”
Have food prices peaked?
Despite well-publicized cuts to milk prices in Britain, food prices in general are unlikely to go down in the near future.
Instead, policymakers are closely watching for a slowdown in the rate of increases.
There are tentative signs that the pace of food inflation — the double-digit increase in annual prices — has reached its pinnacle. In April, the rate fell in the European Union for the first time in two years.
Sources: U.K. Office for National Statistics; Eurostat
By Karl RussellBut the slowdown from here is likely to be gradual.
“It appears to be taking longer for food price pressures to work their way through the system this time than we had expected,” Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said this month.
Across the continent, some governments are intervening by capping prices on food essentials, rather than waiting for the economic debates about corporate profiteering to play out. In France, the government is pushing an “anti-inflation quarter,” asking food retailers to cut prices on some products until June. But the finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, said this month that he wanted food producers to contribute more to the effort, warning they could face tax penalties to recover any margins unfairly made at the expense of consumers if they refuse to return to negotiations.
These efforts may help some shoppers, but on the whole there is little to comfort Europeans. Food prices are unlikely to decline — it’s likely only that the pace of increases will slow later this yea
NOW EXCLUSIVE WSJ: Ukraine and Allies Plan Peace Summit Without Russia…
NOW EXCLUSIVE WSJ: “Ukraine and Allies Plan Peace Summit Without Russia…
“Zelensky's peace plan aims to restore Ukraine's control, release prisoners of war, and prosecute war crimes. The proposal suggests addressing nuclear safety and food security, both allegedly jeopardized by Russia's occupation of a nuclear power plant and invasion.
Image: President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine/Editing by Germán & CoYesterday we reflected on the following: Tuesday's chaos reflections... Is the current state of war is out of control?
The protracted conflict of attrition that both superpowers have been pursuing has proven to be unsuccessful.
The phrase "an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" is a well-known principle of justice that dates back to ancient times. It suggests that the punishment for a wrongdoing should be proportional to the harm caused by the offense. This concept has been debated and interpreted in various ways throughout history, but it remains a fundamental principle in many legal systems around the world.
The adage "An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" has its roots in the Code of Hammurabi, a legal code inscribed in the Akkadian language during the reign of King Hammurabi of Babylon between 1792 and 1750 BC. This expression is referenced in the Bible, more precisely in Matthew 5:38.
The military operations conducted by both superpowers, as evidenced by the recent missile strikes launched by Russia on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and the utilization of drones by Ukraine to target Moscow, indicate that the protracted conflict that both superpowers have been pursuing has not yielded the desired outcome of attrition. The fundamental principle of checks and balances has been eroded, resulting in a feeling of hopelessness and an illogical approach to justice, whereby each action is met with an equivalent and opposing reaction. It is imperative to tackle these concerns and reinstate equilibrium and impartiality in our political structures.
In the context of retributive justice, Mahatma Gandhi famously stated, "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind," a statement that remains pertinent in contemporary times. The pursuit of vengeance serves to sustain a culture of violence and devastation, resulting in an unceasing pattern of anguish and affliction. Instead, it is imperative that we endeavor to cultivate forgiveness and understanding as a means of attaining enduring peace and harmony in our global community. It is imperative to acknowledge that the experience of anger and resentment can impede our capacity to empathize with others, thereby limiting our ability to understand and relate to their perspectives. By cultivating compassion and empathy, it is possible to break away from this cycle and strive towards a more promising future that benefits all individuals. Let us reflect upon the of Gandhi and opt for the course of forgiveness and comprehension, even when confronted with challenging circumstances.
The topic of food inflation in Europe was addressed yesterday in a comprehensive article published by The New York Times.
Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe?A United Nations index of global food commodity prices, such as wheat, meat and vegetable oil, peaked in March 2022, immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is one of the largest grain producers. The war disrupted grain and oil production in the region and had global impact, too, worsening food crises in parts of East Africa and the Middle East.
This discourse pertains to the continuous drone and missile assaults carried out against non-combatants in Russia and Ukraine. The far-reaching consequences of the ongoing war have exceeded the initial predictions, highlighting the urgent need for a prompt resolution to the conflict in order to restore a state of peace.
Image: President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine/Editing by Germán & CoKyiv has strong European backing for a gathering before NATO meeting in July
Zelensky's peace plan aims to restore Ukraine's control, release prisoners of war, and prosecute war crimes. The proposal suggests addressing nuclear safety and food security, both allegedly jeopardized by Russia's occupation of a nuclear power plant and invasion.
By Bojan Pancevski, Laurence Norman and James Marson, May 30, 2023Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s top adviser told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that Ukraine and its allies are planning a summit of global leaders that would exclude Russia, aimed at ending the war on Ukraine’s terms. Photo: The Wall Street Journal
KYIV, Ukraine—Ukraine and its allies are planning a summit of global leaders that would exclude Russia, aimed at garnering support for Kyiv’s terms for ending the war, according to a senior Ukrainian presidential adviser and European diplomats.
Plans for a gathering, while preliminary, have strong support from European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron who are lobbying for participation by countries that have sided with Russia or declined to take a position on the war.
“We require a unified plan of the responsible civilized world that really wants to live in peace,” said Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff. Yermak told The Wall Street Journal that direct negotiations with Russia weren’t possible as long as its troops remain in the country. Ukraine won’t compromise on its territorial integrity, he said.
European officials say they are working with Kyiv to recraft Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan in ways that will make it more acceptable to other global powers such as India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and China.
“The process is not possible without the whole world, including the leaders of the global south,” said Yermak, who is Zelensky’s top adviser.
Kyiv has made a concerted effort in recent months to engage with countries such as China, Brazil and India. Ukraine is ready to talk with all countries and hear their opinions, Yermak said, including representatives of China and Brazil, who visited this month.
Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan calls for restoring Ukraine’s control over its territory, returning prisoners of war and prosecuting war crimes. It also proposes addressing nuclear safety, which it says is compromised by Russia’s occupation of a nuclear power plant, and food security, by protecting grain exports that are hampered by Russia’s invasion.
President Biden and other top leaders from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be invited for the meeting, which Western diplomats hope can take place shortly before NATO’s annual summit that starts July 11. That gathering, in Vilnius, Lithuania, will focus on military support for Ukraine and Kyiv’s future relationship with the organization.
Zelensky early this year asked Macron to help him with international outreach to leaders such as China’s Xi Jinping, according to European diplomats. The talks later matured into plans to organize a conference, the people said. Macron has offered to host the conference in Paris, and Denmark and Sweden have also proposed hosting it, these people said.
No clear list of attendees has been established, but European officials have fanned out to capitals of leading world powers in recent weeks, seeking to bring Brazil, India, China and other non-Western countries on board.
One official involved in the discussions said they were hopeful that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would attend, but they were much less sure about Xi.
Modi has at times expressed his concerns about the war. Xi has met with Russian President Vladimir Putin several times since the war started but took more than a year to call Zelensky. Xi made the call after Macron visited him in Beijing. Chinese officials have repeatedly underscored their partnership with Russia and with Putin personally.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva earlier this month sent former Foreign Minister Celso Amorim to Kyiv and Moscow for talks, but he didn’t meet with Zelensky in Japan this month when both attended a Group of Seven summit.
A conference would build on Ukraine’s continuing diplomatic outreach to traditional allies of Russia: Zelensky recently traveled to a summit of the Arab League, while his foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has toured African countries.
The Western effort comes as other countries with far closer ties to Russia have sought to take the lead in diplomatic work to end the conflict. Both Brazil and China have sent peace envoys to Moscow and European capitals for discussions on ending the war. Neither country has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and both have advocated a quick cease-fire, which would leave Russia controlling swaths of Ukraine, for now.
The peace meeting would seek to place Ukraine and its allies back at the center of that international diplomacy. European officials aim to ensure that future talks take Kyiv’s plan as the diplomatic reference point.
“No Russians but everybody else will be welcomed,” a senior European diplomat said of summit planning.
The timing of the conference ahead of the NATO meeting would send a signal to the rest of the world that while Europe and the U.S. will keep supporting Ukraine with arms, they are also seeking diplomatic solutions to a conflict whose economic spillovers have hurt much of the developing world. Western countries have come under fire from rivals including China and Brazil for sending arms to Ukraine, which those countries say is fueling the conflict.
The idea for the conference was initially hatched in a conversation between Macron and Zelensky in Paris in February, European diplomats said, where the French leader pressed his Ukrainian counterpart to accept that there would eventually need to be peace talks with the Kremlin.
Macron raised the issue with Xi during a recent visit to Beijing. The idea was also floated at this month’s meeting of leaders from the Group of Seven advanced democracies conference in Japan, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials. Zelensky also attended that meeting, as did the leaders of India, Brazil and Indonesia.
On Tuesday, Zelensky spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. A German statement said the two leaders would stay in close contact “with a view to mobilizing global support for a peace solution.”
Senior Ukrainian officials have repeatedly said they would continue their fight against Russia unless Moscow is prepared to engage with its peace plan, which rejects a temporary cease-fire and calls for Russian forces to be withdrawn before talks start.
Russia has said it is open to peace talks but on the condition that Ukraine effectively recognize the territories it has annexed. U.S. officials have said recently that they believe the likelihood for meaningful diplomacy before the end of the year is low.
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Subscribe to the most comprehensive daily news report on energy, economic, and political developments with exclusive analysis at www.germantoroglio.com
Tuesday's chaos reflections...
Is the current state of war is out of control?
The protracted conflict of attrition that both superpowers have been pursuing has proven to be unsuccessful.
The phrase "an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" is a well-known principle of justice that dates back to ancient times. It suggests that the punishment for a wrongdoing should be proportional to the harm caused by the offense. This concept has been debated and interpreted in various ways throughout history, but it remains a fundamental principle in many legal systems around the world.
The adage "An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" has its roots in the Code of Hammurabi, a legal code inscribed in the Akkadian language during the reign of King Hammurabi of Babylon between 1792 and 1750 BC. This expression is referenced in the Bible, more precisely in Matthew 5:38.
The military operations conducted by both superpowers, as evidenced by the recent missile strikes launched by Russia on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and the utilization of drones by Ukraine to target Moscow, indicate that the protracted conflict that both superpowers have been pursuing has not yielded the desired outcome of attrition. The fundamental principle of checks and balances has been eroded, resulting in a feeling of hopelessness and an illogical approach to justice, whereby each action is met with an equivalent and opposing reaction. It is imperative to tackle these concerns and reinstate equilibrium and impartiality in our political structures.
In the context of retributive justice, Mahatma Gandhi famously stated, "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind," a statement that remains pertinent in contemporary times. The pursuit of vengeance serves to sustain a culture of violence and devastation, resulting in an unceasing pattern of anguish and affliction. Instead, it is imperative that we endeavor to cultivate forgiveness and understanding as a means of attaining enduring peace and harmony in our global community. It is imperative to acknowledge that the experience of anger and resentment can impede our capacity to empathize with others, thereby limiting our ability to understand and relate to their perspectives. By cultivating compassion and empathy, it is possible to break away from this cycle and strive towards a more promising future that benefits all individuals. Let us reflect upon the of Gandhi and opt for the course of forgiveness and comprehension, even when confronted with challenging circumstances.
The destruction of a wind farm during an armed conflict presents a multifaceted challenge for its destruction...
Wind farms pose a greater challenge as a potential wartime target due to their dispersed nature and the requirement for multiple strikes with numerous missiles or drones.
It is difficult to cause the same damage to a wind farm as it is to a conventional power plant. According to a recent New York Times article, Ukraine is increasingly reliant on wind power, which benefits the country. With the current geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia, wind farms are gaining popularity as a secure alternative to traditional power plants.
News round-up, May 30, 2023
Tuesday's chaos reflections...
Is the current state of war is out of control?
The protracted conflict of attrition that both superpowers have been pursuing has proven to be unsuccessful.
The phrase "an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" is a well-known principle of justice that dates back to ancient times. It suggests that the punishment for a wrongdoing should be proportional to the harm caused by the offense. This concept has been debated and interpreted in various ways throughout history, but it remains a fundamental principle in many legal systems around the world.
The adage "An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" has its roots in the Code of Hammurabi, a legal code inscribed in the Akkadian language during the reign of King Hammurabi of Babylon between 1792 and 1750 BC. This expression is referenced in the Bible, more precisely in Matthew 5:38.
The military operations conducted by both superpowers, as evidenced by the recent missile strikes launched by Russia on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and the utilization of drones by Ukraine to target Moscow, indicate that the protracted conflict that both superpowers have been pursuing has not yielded the desired outcome of attrition. The fundamental principle of checks and balances has been eroded, resulting in a feeling of hopelessness and an illogical approach to justice, whereby each action is met with an equivalent and opposing reaction. It is imperative to tackle these concerns and reinstate equilibrium and impartiality in our political structures.
In the context of retributive justice, Mahatma Gandhi famously stated, "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind," a statement that remains pertinent in contemporary times. The pursuit of vengeance serves to sustain a culture of violence and devastation, resulting in an unceasing pattern of anguish and affliction. Instead, it is imperative that we endeavor to cultivate forgiveness and understanding as a means of attaining enduring peace and harmony in our global community. It is imperative to acknowledge that the experience of anger and resentment can impede our capacity to empathize with others, thereby limiting our ability to understand and relate to their perspectives. By cultivating compassion and empathy, it is possible to break away from this cycle and strive towards a more promising future that benefits all individuals. Let us reflect upon the of Gandhi and opt for the course of forgiveness and comprehension, even when confronted with challenging circumstances.
—————
The destruction of a wind farm during an armed conflict presents a multifaceted challenge for its destruction...
Wind farms pose a greater challenge as a potential wartime target due to their dispersed nature and the requirement for multiple strikes with numerous missiles or drones.
It is difficult to cause the same damage to a wind farm as it is to a conventional power plant. According to a recent New York Times article, Ukraine is increasingly reliant on wind power, which benefits the country. With the current geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia, wind farms are gaining popularity as a secure alternative to traditional power plants.
Most Read…
Ukraine Sees New Virtue in Wind Power: It’s Harder to Destroy
Bombarding the power grid has been an essential part of Russia’s invasion, but officials say it would take many more missile strikes to badly damage a wind farm than a power plant.
NYT By Maria Varenikova, May 29, 2023Moscow targeted by drone attack, no casualties
The Russian capital's mayor spoke of "minor" damage to buildings but reported no casualties.
Le Monde with AFP, published today at 7:27 am (Paris)Russia launches missile strikes on Kyiv after overnight barrage
Residents run for shelter during attack that appears to have been part of effort to exhaust air defences
The Guardian Julian Borger in Kyiv, Mon 29 May 2023Russia blames Ukraine for large-scale drone attack on Moscow
No one was seriously injured in the strike, which Moscow called a ‘terrorist attack.’
REUTERS BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND NICOLAS CAMUT, MAY 30, 2023Terrible public policy’: Why the debt deal infuriates climate activists
The deal keeps intact spending in Biden’s landmark climate bill, but it expedites a natural gas pipeline backed by Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.).
WP By Timothy Puko, Updated May 29, EDT|Published May 29, 2023 at 6:07 p.m. EDT'Chile's constitutional reform is once again at an impasse'
The elections to Chile's Constitutional Council, won by the far right, have shown the stalemate that constitutional reforms, designed to solve a society's fundamental problems, can create when they are enacted without prior political agreement.
Le Monde, *Sébastien Velut, Paris, TodayVietnam urges industry to save energy during heatwave
Hanoi cuts public lighting to save power in heatwaves…
REUTERS By Thinh Nguyen, May 30, 2023Spanish green hydrogen competition gaining traction as African and Latin American countries develop green hydrogen.
The EU's effort to achieve independence from oil presents opportunities and challenges in both regions.
El País by Leandro Hernandez, May 30, 2023/English edition and supplements by GERMÁN & COImage:by Germán & CoTuesday's chaos reflections...
Is the current state of war is out of control?
The protracted conflict of attrition that both superpowers have been pursuing has proven to be unsuccessful.
The phrase "an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" is a well-known principle of justice that dates back to ancient times. It suggests that the punishment for a wrongdoing should be proportional to the harm caused by the offense. This concept has been debated and interpreted in various ways throughout history, but it remains a fundamental principle in many legal systems around the world.
The adage "An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth" has its roots in the Code of Hammurabi, a legal code inscribed in the Akkadian language during the reign of King Hammurabi of Babylon between 1792 and 1750 BC. This expression is referenced in the Bible, more precisely in Matthew 5:38.
The military operations conducted by both superpowers, as evidenced by the recent missile strikes launched by Russia on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and the utilization of drones by Ukraine to target Moscow, indicate that the protracted conflict that both superpowers have been pursuing has not yielded the desired outcome of attrition. The fundamental principle of checks and balances has been eroded, resulting in a feeling of hopelessness and an illogical approach to justice, whereby each action is met with an equivalent and opposing reaction. It is imperative to tackle these concerns and reinstate equilibrium and impartiality in our political structures.
In the context of retributive justice, Mahatma Gandhi famously stated, "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind," a statement that remains pertinent in contemporary times. The pursuit of vengeance serves to sustain a culture of violence and devastation, resulting in an unceasing pattern of anguish and affliction. Instead, it is imperative that we endeavor to cultivate forgiveness and understanding as a means of attaining enduring peace and harmony in our global community. It is imperative to acknowledge that the experience of anger and resentment can impede our capacity to empathize with others, thereby limiting our ability to understand and relate to their perspectives. By cultivating compassion and empathy, it is possible to break away from this cycle and strive towards a more promising future that benefits all individuals. Let us reflect upon the of Gandhi and opt for the course of forgiveness and comprehension, even when confronted with challenging circumstances.
The destruction of a wind farm during an armed conflict presents a multifaceted challenge for its destruction...
Wind farms pose a greater challenge as a potential wartime target due to their dispersed nature and the requirement for multiple strikes with numerous missiles or drones.
It is difficult to cause the same damage to a wind farm as it is to a conventional power plant. According to a recent New York Times article, Ukraine is increasingly reliant on wind power, which benefits the country. With the current geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia, wind farms are gaining popularity as a secure alternative to traditional power plants.
So long…
Tina Turner: a fantastic woman with a unique energy, strong muscles, and a voice that could move mountains…
We'll never forget her magic and how she used to light up the stage with her live performances. Even though she's no longer with us, her spirit will live on through the fantastic music...
Turner's incredible career spanned decades, during which she sold over 200 million records and created timeless classics that continue to inspire and move us to this day. Hits like "What's Love Got to Do with It" will forever be etched into our hearts and minds. It is with heavy hearts that we share the news of her passing. After a long illness, Turner passed away peacefully last week in her Küsnacht home near Zurich, Switzerland.
Most Read…
Ukraine Sees New Virtue in Wind Power: It’s Harder to Destroy
Bombarding the power grid has been an essential part of Russia’s invasion, but officials say it would take many more missile strikes to badly damage a wind farm than a power plant.
NYT By Maria Varenikova, May 29, 2023
Moscow targeted by drone attack, no casualties
The Russian capital's mayor spoke of "minor" damage to buildings but reported no casualties.
Le Monde with AFP, published today at 7:27 am (Paris)Russia launches missile strikes on Kyiv after overnight barrage
Residents run for shelter during attack that appears to have been part of effort to exhaust air defences
The Guardian Julian Borger in Kyiv, Mon 29 May 2023Russia blames Ukraine for large-scale drone attack on Moscow
No one was seriously injured in the strike, which Moscow called a ‘terrorist attack.’
REUTERS BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND NICOLAS CAMUT, MAY 30, 2023Terrible public policy’: Why the debt deal infuriates climate activists
The deal keeps intact spending in Biden’s landmark climate bill, but it expedites a natural gas pipeline backed by Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.).
WP By Timothy Puko, Updated May 29, EDT|Published May 29, 2023 at 6:07 p.m. EDT'Chile's constitutional reform is once again at an impasse'
The elections to Chile's Constitutional Council, won by the far right, have shown the stalemate that constitutional reforms, designed to solve a society's fundamental problems, can create when they are enacted without prior political agreement.
Le Monde, *Sébastien Velut, Paris, TodayVietnam urges industry to save energy during heatwave
Hanoi cuts public lighting to save power in heatwaves…
REUTERS By Thinh Nguyen, May 30, 2023Spanish green hydrogen competition gaining traction as African and Latin American countries develop green hydrogen.
The EU's effort to achieve independence from oil presents opportunities and challenges in both regions.
El País by Leandro Hernandez, May 30, 2023/English edition and supplements by GERMÁN & COThe AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image: Germán & CoUkraine Sees New Virtue in Wind Power: It’s Harder to Destroy
Bombarding the power grid has been an essential part of Russia’s invasion, but officials say it would take many more missile strikes to badly damage a wind farm than a power plant.
NYT By Maria Varenikova, May 29, 2023ODESA, Ukraine — The giants catch the wind with their huge arms, helping to keep the lights on in Ukraine — newly built windmills on plains along the Black Sea.
In 15 months of war, Russia has launched countless missiles and exploding drones at power plants, hydroelectric dams and substations, trying to black out as much of Ukraine as it can, as often as it can, in its campaign to pound the country into submission. The new Tyligulska wind farm stands only a few dozen miles from Russian artillery, but Ukrainians say it has a crucial advantage over most of the country’s grid.
A single, well-placed missile can damage a power plant severely enough to take it out of action, but Ukrainian officials say that doing the same to a set of windmills, each one hundreds of feet apart from any other, would require dozens of missiles. A wind farm can be temporarily disabled by striking a transformer substation or transmission lines, but these are much easier to repair than power plants.
“It is our response to Russians,” said Maksym Timchenko, the chief executive of DTEK Group, the company that built the turbines, in the southern Mykolaiv region, the first phase of what is planned as Eastern Europe’s largest wind farm. “It is the most profitable and, as we know now, most secure form of energy.”
Ukraine has had laws in place since 2014 to promote the transition to renewable energy, both to lower dependence on Russian energy imports and because it was profitable. But that transition still has a long way to go, and the war makes its prospects — like everything else about Ukraine’s future — murky.
In 2020, 12 percent of Ukraine’s electricity came from renewable sources, barely half the percentage for the European Union. Plans for the Tyligulska project call for 85 turbines producing up to 500 megawatts of electricity, enough for 500,000 apartments — an impressive output for a wind farm, but less than 1 percent of the country’s prewar generating capacity.
After the Kremlin began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the need for new power sources became acute. Russia has bombarded Ukraine’s power plants and cut off delivery of the natural gas that fueled some of them.
Russian occupation forces have seized a large part of the country’s power supply, ensuring that its output does not reach territory still held by Ukraine. They hold the single largest generator, the 5,700-megawatt Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been damaged repeatedly in fighting and has stopped transmitting energy to the grid. They also control 90 percent of Ukraine’s renewable energy plants, which are concentrated in the southeast.
The postwar recovery plans Ukraine has presented to the European Union — which it hopes to join — and other supporters includes a major new commitment to clean energy.
“The war speeded us up,” said Hanna Zamazeeva, the head of the Ukrainian government’s energy efficiency agency, which supported the construction of the wind farm.
But energy and economic analysts say much of the hoped-for green transition will have to wait until after reconstruction begins and foreign investment returns, and could depend on Ukrainian success on the battlefield.
“Developing renewables, particularly wind and solar, depends on Ukraine successfully recapturing these territories” now held by Russia, the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported in December. “The level of destruction across these regions could impede any new investment or development, as enabling infrastructure such as roads and grid networks may need to be rebuilt. Current installations may also have been damaged.”
Southern Ukraine’s potential for wind power was clear at the project’s opening ceremony this month when hot, dry air gusted through a wheat field dotted with huge turbines. Amid snack-covered tables, their linens flapping in the wind, the gathered diplomats and journalists had to turn their backs to the blowing dust.
The three-bladed turbines at Tyligulska, made by the Danish company Vestas, are huge, carving circles in the air more than 500 feet in diameter. Each windmill weighs about 800 tons.
The first turbine was built in February 2022, the month the invasion began, and then DTEK froze construction. But in August, Evheniy Moroz, the company’s site manager, received a call from his director, who asked if they could resume work without international contractors, who had all evacuated, taking their heavy equipment with them.
“I started calling the guys I worked with to find out where they are, what contractors are still operating, and whether there are any cranes able to lift 100 tons still in Ukraine,” Mr. Moroz said.
He found just one, and it needed renovation, but this crane was the only hope. The builders modified the crane for the job and started calling it their “little dragon.” With it, construction restarted.
Builders worked in open fields about 60 miles from the front lines, hiding in a bunker when air-raid sirens sounded. Missiles fired from Russian ships in the Black Sea roared overhead but did not target the site. Cruise missiles flew lower than the turbines, trying to evade radar detection by Ukrainian air defenses.
They are a modest step toward energy security and a green transition, but the new windmills mean something more immediate for Ukraine, said Vitaliy Kim, the governor of the Mykolaiv region.
“The construction of this wind power plant is a sort of a signal that it is possible to build during the war,” he said. “Such projects have to exist for the independence of our country.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image by Germán & CoMoscow targeted by drone attack, no casualties
The Russian capital's mayor spoke of "minor" damage to buildings but reported no casualties.
Le Monde with AFP, published today at 7:27 am (Paris)Moscow was targeted by a drone attack on Tuesday, May 30, causing "minor" damage to buildings and no casualties, the city's mayor said.
"This morning, at dawn, a drone attack caused minor damage to several buildings. All the city's emergency services are on the scene ... No one has been seriously injured so far," Moscow's mayor Sergei Sobyanin said.
Russia's defence ministry blamed Ukraine for a "terrorist attack," saying it had intercepted all of the eight drones aimed at Moscow.
Moscow, located more than 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine, has rarely been targeted by drone attacks since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, even though such attacks have become more common elsewhere in Russia.
The attack follows a similar assault on Ukraine's capital of Kyiv, carried out by Russian drones overnight and leaving at least one person dead, according to the city's mayor Vitali Klitschko.
Russian forces fired missiles at Kyiv on Monday, sending panicked residents running for shelter in an unusual daytime attack on the Ukrainian capital following overnight strikes.
In early May, two drones were shot down over the Kremlin in an attack blamed on Ukraine.
Ukraine on Tuesday said it had downed 29 out of 31 drones, mainly over Kyiv and the Kyiv region, in the latest Russian barrage, the third in 24 hours.
Image: Germán & Co by Shutterstock
Russia launches missile strikes on Kyiv after overnight barrage
Residents run for shelter during attack that appears to have been part of effort to exhaust air defences
The Guardian Julian Borger in Kyiv, Mon 29 May 2023Russian forces have launched an intense and unusual daytime missile barrage at Kyiv, forcing residents to flee to bomb shelters, in what appears to be an effort to exhaust Ukraine’s air defences.
The Ukrainian military said it had intercepted all 11 of the ballistic and cruise missiles fired at the city in the attack that began at 11am. One person was reported to have been injured. Residents who had become accustomed to a string of night-time attacks ran to Kyiv’s metro stations and other shelters after a succession of loud bangs as incoming missiles were intercepted and bursts of smoke from air defences dotted the clear morning sky.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted a video of what he said was frightened schoolchildren running and screaming down a Kyiv street to a bomb shelter to the sound of air raid sirens.
“This is what an ordinary weekday looks like,” Zelenskiy wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, posted a picture on social media of what appeared to be a smouldering rocket motor in the middle of a busy street.
He said: “Another difficult night for the capital. But, thanks to the professionalism of our defenders, as a result of the air attack of the barbarians in Kyiv, there was no damage or destruction of infrastructural and other objects.”
The assault, which used short-range Iskander ballistic missiles, came after a series of night-time attacks on Kyiv involving Iranian-made Shahed drones and cruise missiles. The Ukrainian air force said that over Sunday night it shot down 37 of 40 Russian cruise missiles and 29 of 35 drones. In the early morning hours of Sunday, which marked Kyiv Day commemorating the city’s founding, Russia launched its biggest-ever drone attack on the Ukrainian capital city, involving 54 Shahed combat aerial vehicles.
Serhii Popko, the head of Kyiv’s military administration, said that as well as keeping Ukrainian civilians in a state of “deep psychological tension”, Russia’s leaders were seeking to exhaust the Ukraine’s air defences with the relentless spate of attacks.
Ukrainian officials have flagged their concerns that their anti-aircraft defences from the Soviet era were running out of ammunition and that western systems such as the US Patriot were not arriving in sufficient quantities to fill the gap.
Kyiv was not the only target on Monday. An airfield in the western Khmelnytskyi region was also struck. The region’s governor said five aircraft had been “disabled”and a fire had broken out in a fuel depot.
A drone was shot down over Odesa, and debris fell on the port causing a fire. Rockets and drones were reported to have been shot down over the Lviv, Kirovohrad, Poltava and Mykolaiv regions. Nine towns or villages were targeted in the Ukrainian-held Donetsk region, including the city of Kramatorsk, according to the governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko.
The Russian defence ministry claimed to have targeted Ukrainian airbases but did not mention the nearly daily strikes against cities.
In Russia, the governor of the Belgorod, which borders the Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, said on Monday that several Russian settlements had come under fire from Ukrainian forces.
Asked on Russian television how he thought Belgorod should be made safe, Vyachesla Gladkov said Kharkiv should be annexed.
Russia’s defense ministry accused Ukraine of being responsible for drone attack | Juan Barreto/AFP Russia blames Ukraine for large-scale drone attack on Moscow
No one was seriously injured in the strike, which Moscow called a ‘terrorist attack.’
REUTERS BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND NICOLAS CAMUT, MAY 30, 2023Moscow was targeted by a drone attack Tuesday morning after days of heavy fire on Kyiv, the Russian defense ministry said Tuesday, accusing Ukraine of being responsible.
“The attack involved eight uncrewed aircraft. All the enemy drones were shot down,” the defense ministry said in a statement, calling the event a “terrorist attack.”
The drone attack caused “minor damage to several buildings,” Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said, adding that no one was “seriously injured” in the attack. The alleged attack comes after three days of heavy Russian drone and rocket strikes across the border in Ukraine.
It is not the first time Russia has accused Ukraine of carrying out aerial attacks on Russian soil.
Earlier this month, Moscow claimed that Kyiv was behind an attempt to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin in a drone attack that caused minor damage to the Kremlin.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied the allegations, saying only that “we don’t attack Putin or Moscow. We fight on our territory. We are defending our villages and cities.”
For weeks, Ukrainian officials have been hinting that their forces are preparing for an imminent counteroffensive to retake occupied territory in the east of the country. Kyiv’s armed forces have reportedly carried out “shaping operations” designed to strike Moscow’s logistics and undermine its efforts to wage war.
Connie Fitzsimmons of Blacksburg, Va., demonstrates with Appalachian and Indigenous climate advocates against the Mountain Valley Pipeline project approved as part of the Inflation Reduction Act on Sept. 08, 2022. (Craig Hudson for The Washington Post)/Editing by Germán & Co‘Terrible public policy’: Why the debt deal infuriates climate activists
The deal keeps intact spending in Biden’s landmark climate bill, but it expedites a natural gas pipeline backed by Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.).
WP By Timothy Puko, Updated May 29, EDT|Published May 29, 2023 at 6:07 p.m. EDTA long-disputed Appalachian natural gas pipeline could be on a fast track to completion as part of the new debt ceiling deal.
President Biden and House Republicans have agreed to expedite permitting for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a project that is key to the West Virginia delegation as the president and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) seek to woo lawmakers across the capital.
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Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.). has previously demanded White House support for the project in exchange for his vote, and other Republicans, including West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, praised the pipeline provisions included in the legislation.
It is another White House concession to Manchin, who has long championed the 303-mile pipeline, which would carry West Virginia shale gas to the East Coast but has been tripped up by dozens of environmental violations and a slew of court fights. Environmentalists have fought the project since its inception, and the new provisions aims to block them from challenging almost all government approvals for the line to cut across federal forests and dozens of waterways in Appalachia’s hilly, wet terrain.
The pipeline language is just one of a few energy and climate provisions in the deal, drawing ire from pipeline opponents and climate activists. The bill also proposes streamlining the landmark National Environmental Policy Act to limit its requirements on some projects, and studying the capacity of the country’s grid to transfer electricity from region to region.
Republican leaders say they will work with the White House later on how to speed up major electric transmission projects — crucial to Biden’s goal of transitioning away from fossil fuels — but excluded such provisions from this deal. The White House also said it fended off efforts to cut billions in spending from major legislation Biden had championed, including last year’s roughly $370 billion package that funded his climate agenda.
That was not enough to please environmental groups. The Sierra Club on Monday called for Congress to reject it, as did Sen. Tim Kaine (D) from Virginia, where both U.S. senators have opposed the pipeline project.
Kaine said Monday he planned to propose an amendment to strip the pipeline provisions from the bill.
“Any deal that attempts to expedite the fracked gas Mountain Valley Pipeline, that rolls back bedrock environmental protections, and makes life harder for workers and families already struggling is a bad deal for the country,” the Sierra Club Executive Director Ben Jealous said in a statement.
Several climate advocates criticized Biden for supporting the pipeline by noting the administration also approved a giant oil project in Alaska called Willow earlier this year, and has been reluctant to help stop other pipeline projects. Climate activists have tried to block the Mountain Valley Pipeline, also called MVP, as a way of limiting the supply of cheap natural gas, and locals have been frustrated by frequent construction mishaps.
But it has been a top priority for Manchin, who had demanded legislation to help the project as part of his support for the larger climate package last year. Along with Capito, Manchin may be needed again to pass the new deal to raise the country’s debt ceiling, and Democrats have been looking to help his tough reelection trying to defend a Democratic senate seat in his heavily Republican state.
“I am pleased Speaker McCarthy and his leadership team see the tremendous value in completing the MVP to increase domestic energy production and drive down costs across America and especially in West Virginia,” Manchin said late Sunday in a statement that did not mention Biden, the president from his own party. “I am proud to have fought for this critical project.”
MVP is a joint venture between some of the largest gas companies in Appalachia and the nation’s most valuable power company, NextEra Energy. Its largest investor is Equitrans Midstream, a spinoff of the largest U.S. natural gas producer, EQT, and MVP connects Marcellus shale sweet spots for EQT and other drillers in West Virginia to a hub for East Coast supplies in Virginia.
Lengths of pipe for the Mountain Valley Pipeline near Elliston, Va. (Charles Mostoller/Reuters)
Manchin has called it crucial for the country’s energy security, especially getting gas supply from his home state to major demand centers. He has complained that the administration has been unable to permit the rest of the project with just 20 miles of it left to complete.
But construction for Mountain Valley has relied on eminent domain to seize private property, repeatedly violated clean-water laws and gone billions of dollars over budget. It committed more than 500 violations in the two states, according to a count from the environmental group Appalachian Voices.
Just Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission needed to provided a further environmental review of the project, which could have put its completion off until 2024, according to the independent research firm ClearView Energy Partners.
The new legislation could nullify that decision and other outstanding court orders, experts said. Legislative language prohibits court oversight of decisions on MVP permitting from FERC and other federal agencies. It says Congress ratifies all permits and gives the Army Corps of Engineers 21 days after the bill’s passage to issue those permits. Only that law itself can be challenged in the D.C. Circuit.
“It’s really terrible public policy for Congress to pick winners and losers in the courtroom,” said Peter Anderson, Virginia policy director with Appalachian Voices. “One company is getting a pass while everyone else has to play by the rules.”
What House officials say they prevented Republican attempts to gut last year’s climate spending bill and to include a package, known as H. R. 1, that would have enacted bigger rollbacks of air pollution, clean water, and chemical protection laws.
How House Republicans forced a debt ceiling negotiation
Uncertainty over the debt ceiling has reached a level not seen in years after a narrow House Republican majority conditioned a debt increase on spending cuts. (Video: JM Rieger/The Washington Post)
“President Biden protected his historic climate legislation,” White House spokesman Abdullah Hasan said. “We believe this is a bipartisan compromise that congressional Democrats can be proud of and that will accelerate our clean energy goals and climate agenda.”
White House officials also said that MVP was already likely to be completed anyway in due time — with the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management issuing key permits earlier this month.
“It’s something that there’s a high degree of interest in, but I think, as a practical matter, this provision doesn’t have much of an effect,” White House climate adviser John Podesta said, according to audio of a call with House Democrats obtained by The Washington Post.
A spokeswoman for Equitrans said the company plans to finish the pipeline by the end of 2023. She said the company is grateful for support from the White House and congressional leaders of both parties.
“MVP is among the most environmentally scrutinized projects to be built in this country, having been subject to an unprecedented level of legal and regulatory review,” spokeswoman Natalie Cox said in an email.
The project’s delays put it in the middle of a discussion, brewing since last year, of how long it takes to permit energy infrastructure. A natural gas pipeline takes around three years to build; electric transmission is often even slower, eight to 15 years to build, a problem that White House officials have warned could block most of the benefits of last year’s climate-spending package if it is not fixed.
Environmentalists said the changes to the National Environmental Policy Act could help other pipeline projects go faster. But there is little in the deal directed at helping renewable energy get from generating plants to customers.
It leaves out measures, in talks as recently as Thursday, to encourage the construction of transmission lines by requiring regions to transfer at least 30 percent of their peak electricity demand between each other. The transmission study included in the deal also could take years to finish, and the legislative language for it “has technical problems” that may prevent it from surviving, said Rob Gramlich, president of the consulting group Grid Strategies.
Jason Grumet, chief executive of the American Clean Power Association, a renewable energy industry group, called the measures just a “down payment.” It will introduce shorter timelines for reviews and empower a single lead agency on decisions among other moves, but that will not be enough, he said.
“It is critical that Congress build upon these initial steps,” Grumet said. “Absent significant improvements in the siting and construction of new clean power transmission capabilities, our nation will fail to achieve critical economic, national security and climate goals.”
Chilean President Gabriel Boric/Editing by Germán & Co'Chile's constitutional reform is once again at an impasse'
Leftist leadership has resurged in Latin America. Progressive governments are rising in Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Brazil, but leadres face challenges from the pandemic and global economic crisis.
Recently, a new wing-right movement has emerged with the bold statement that they are the ones who can safeguard democracy. They claim to have a deep understanding of the needs and desires of the people and believe that they can provide the right kind of leadership to ensure that democracy is protected and preserved.
While many are sceptical of their claims, others are intrigued by their ideas and are willing to give them a chance. Only time will tell if this movement can fulfil its promise, but for now, they are gaining momentum and support from those looking for a new way forward.
Germán & CoThe elections to Chile's Constitutional Council, won by the far right, have shown the stalemate that constitutional reforms, designed to solve a society's fundamental problems, can create when they are enacted without prior political agreement.
Le Monde, *Sébastien Velut, Paris, Today*Sébastien Velut is a professor of geography at the Sorbonne-Nouvelle, Institut des Hautes Etudes de l'Amérique LatineThe elections to Chile's Constitutional Council, won by the far right, have shown the stalemate that constitutional reforms, designed to solve a society's fundamental problems, can create when they are enacted without prior political agreement.
In recent years, leftists have returned to power in Latin America: in Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile and, in what was no small victory, Brazil. Faced with the combined effects of the global economic crisis and the pandemic, these governments are also coming up against a new blatant right wing, which is publicly breaking with the safeguards of democracy, at the same time as some sections of Latin American societies are expressing new aspirations.
On Sunday, May 7, the Chilean electorate voted to appoint the members of the Constitutional Council, who will be responsible for drafting a new constitution to be put to a referendum on December 17, with a very tight schedule. After a large majority rejected the proposed text prepared by the Constituent Convention, which met between 2021 and 2022, President Gabriel Boric and the parties represented in parliament agreed to restart a constitutional process that was more structured than the Convention's and to give the reforms a second chance.
A commission of experts appointed by the parties represented in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies has been preparing a document since March that will be discussed in the newly elected Constitutional Council. Twelve major principles frame the draft process. They define the characteristics of the political system and set out principles of respect for human rights, the identities of indigenous peoples and nature.
Divisions too strong
Only one party did not sign the agreement: the Republican Party (PLR, far-right), which emerged in 2019 following a split in the conservative right. Led by José Antonio Kast, a defeated candidate in the 2021 presidential run-off, the PLR believes it is unnecessary to renew the constitution. It presented the May 7 vote as an opportunity to punish the Boric government, while the traditional right campaigned mainly on the alleged rise in insecurity.
On May 7, the PLR won the election by a wide margin. It led nationally with more than 35% of the vote and, thanks to the constituency voting system, it will occupy 23 of the 51 seats on the Constitutional Council. An insufficient number to be able to decide alone, since it would need a three-fifths majority – 31 votes – to approve or reject the articles proposed by the commission of experts, but enough to be able to block any reform, since groups close to the current government total 16 elected representatives and the traditional right has 11 – only one seat is designated for the indigenous peoples, who had 17 councilors out of 155 in the previous convention.An alliance between the PLR and some of the right could also enable a new text to be drafted, stamped with the seal of conservatism, which would lead the left to play on the reverse side, gambling on its rejection by the December referendum.
expect to achieve partial agreements by the end of the year to vote on a new text. Retaining the 1980 constitution, which was written under dictatorship but amended many times by democratic governments, would seem to be the least-worst option. This text is considered shameful by some on the left and insufficient by social movements, which would like to see new rights included. Compared to the communicative euphoria of the 2019 demonstrations, the realization that the constitutional "big night" will not take place is a dampener at the beginning of this southern hemisphere autumn.
Political gesture
In Chile, President Boric and his allies have suffered a setback but they still have a relative majority in parliament. They can even hope that the threat posed by the rise of the PLR will lead some of the moderate right to be more open to dialogue. He will have to be very skillful and hope that some of the MPs will agree to follow him, otherwise the next few years of his term of office may be a long struggle, while Chileans are waiting for a number of reforms that take account of changes in society.
The May 7 vote has shown the difficulty of reforming constitutional texts. It took exceptional circumstances, such as the end of dictatorships, to reform constitutions like those of Brazil (1988) and Argentina (1994). Or governments with strong majorities led by radical leaders such as Hugo Chavez (Venezuela's constitution in 1999) and Evo Morales (Bolivia's constitution in 2009). In Mexico, López Obrador is engaged in a battle to reform certain articles of the Mexican constitution, without claiming to be creating a new text: The one inherited from the 1917 revolution is a national monument.
Compared to the grand political gesture of constitutional reform, which is designed to solve the fundamental problems of a society, the Chilean impasse shows that, in the end, revisions of the constitution only succeed when there are prior agreements, and that constitutional changes are as much an outcome as a beginning. In highly divided societies, where factions are entrenched in their positions, building these convergences requires patience, but that is the price of democracy. Perhaps this is what should inspire the Latin American lefts if they aspire to undertake reforms rather than posturing.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image by Germán & CoVietnam urges industry to save energy during heatwave
Hanoi cuts public lighting to save power in heatwaves…
REUTERS By Thinh Nguyen, May 30, 2023HANOI, May 30 (Reuters) - Vietnam is turning off street lights and manufacturers are switching operations to off-peak hours to keep the national power system running amid record temperatures in some areas that have caused a surge in demand.
As weather officials warn the heatwave could run into June, several cities have cut back on public lighting and government offices have been urged to cut power use by a tenth after state utility EVN said the national grid faced strain in coming weeks.
Temperatures this week are expected to hover between 26 and 38 degrees Celsius (78.8 and 100.4 degrees F), weather officials say.
To tackle the problem, Hanoi has shortened the duration of public lighting by an hour each day, while halving illumination on some major roads and in public parks.
"If people all save energy, all will have enough electricity to use, but if not, there will be a partial electrical overload that will put the power grid at risk," said Luong Minh Quan, an electrician with EVN in Hanoi.
Last week, Vietnam called for electrical devices to be turned off when not in use, and for air-conditioning to be kept above 26 degrees C (78.8 degrees F).
Authorities are pushing industrial consumers to operate during off-peak hours, when overall electricity demand is lower, to ease pressure on the national grid, said one industry source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
More than 11,000 companies, from large factories of China's Texhong Textile Group to South Korean shoemaker Changshin, have agreed to cut consumption where possible, the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam (ERAV) says.
Some Hanoi residents turned to a waterpark to cool off, though experts say activity in extreme heat can cause dehydration and exhaustion.
"The water can help overcome the heat, as there are no other immediate solutions," said Tran Minh Trung, 48.
Global hydrogen production by fuel and hydrogen demand by sector 2019-2070 Under the Sustainable Development Scenario (Source IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2020)Spanish green hydrogen competition gaining traction as African and Latin American countries develop green hydrogen.
The EU's effort to achieve independence from oil presents opportunities and challenges in both regions.
El País by Leandro Hernandez, May 30, 2023/English edition and supplements by GERMÁN & CO“Latin America and the Caribbean region has an enormous amount of renewable resources such as wind, solar, geothermal, and hydrological resources, which allows the region to have 55% of clean power generation compared with the global average of 35%. Yet, that renewable energy was developed for the electricity market. What would happen if more renewable energy projects were built with the objective of producing green hydrogen for domestic needs and exports in the format of ammonia or methanol? The current and future renewable energy resources could be directed to the production of green hydrogen and provide a strong position for the region in this new worldwide industrial value chain that starts to develop. Hydrogen is also a great opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean countries to achieve cleaner domestic energy matrices, particularly for that 17% of emissions originating in industrial activities.
SOURCE: https://blogs.iadb.org/energia/en/will-hydrogen-development-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-be-color-blind/
Europe's confidence in the promised energy and industrial revolution generated by hydrogen is facing a new crisis. Not only are projects progressing slowly, with less than 5% implementation, but other regions are also looking to join the race at an accelerated pace. According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, the countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East have significant potential for exporting this energy source. By 2050, it is expected to account for 15% of all energy sources in Europe. In addition to aiming to produce one-fifth of Europe's hydrogen by 2030, Spain also strive to become a central hub for hydrogen entry into the region. The Iberian Peninsula not only accounts for 20% of the world's renewable hydrogen projects but also has the potential to become a crucial production route for energy powers like Morocco, Algeria, Brazil, and Chile. Unlike oil, hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, which means it can be produced anywhere on the planet. However, the cost and competitiveness of it vary, influenced by the energy price required to produce it. A report by the Hydrogen Council, a consortium of energy and oil industry leaders, identifies Latin America and Africa as the new promising regions for hydrogen development. Javier Brey, the President of the Spanish Hydrogen Association (AEH2), opposes the notion of hydrogen being a threat to local production and instead prefers to view it as an opportunity.
"Although the two terms always go hand in hand," he explained in conversation with CincoDías.
And he acknowledges that there is a race with regions at different starting points, but he also recognizes that "not everything has been said.
“The RepowerEU strategy envisions that by 2050, the European Union will import 10 million tons of green hydrogen, which is half of the estimated consumption. This percentage represents a significant decrease in Europe's dependence on oil imports. In 2021, Europe imported nearly 92% of the oil it consumed. At the same time, the EU-27 faces the challenge of avoiding the same mistake of entrusting practically all of their supply to a single supplier, as they have previously done with Russia.
The good news for major energy consumers like Germany, the Netherlands, and France is that the transportation costs for this energy source are minimal. A joint study conducted by the Port of Rotterdam, the largest terminal in Europe, and Uruguay has affirmed that the transport costs for hydrogen production from South America are marginal, despite the vast distances that separate the two countries. Near Neighbors North Africa is already positioned as the leading potential supplier of green hydrogen to Europe, with a projected production of up to 597 million tones annually by 2050. The vast stretches of uninhabited land, coupled with the high intensity of local radiation and the potential for energy connections with Europe that could be reconverted, have increased interest in the region.
“Morocco’s ambition to become a green hydrogen exporter could be complemented by Algeria's urgent need to replace its hydrocarbon exports, as well as the presence of gas pipelines," as stated in a recent study conducted by the Royal Elcano Institute.
This has not gone unnoticed by Brussels. In November of last year, the EU selected Morocco to establish its first green partnership with a country. This alliance includes the development of local hydrogen production capabilities. In October of the same year, a similar agreement was signed with Algeria. Bilaterally, the Alawite kingdom has signed agreements with Portugal, Germany, and Spain. The benefits for the country are clear. The high cost of the projects, coupled with the lack of local technology and capacity, present good opportunities for Spanish companies. Moreover, the interconnections that directly link the Iberian Peninsula to Morocco and Algeria could be utilized for shipping this element.
The risk is that other projects that avoid local geography will be favoured, such as the southern corridor linking Algiers directly to Italy and from there to the rest of Europe. In January, the two countries signed an initial agreement to begin technical studies before constructing this infrastructure. This initiative competes with the H2MED initiative promoted by Spain, Portugal and France, which Madrid and Paris are still debating.
Latin America
The real production giant may be on the other side of the Atlantic, in a region where Spanish companies have more than 150 billion euros in investments. Latin American countries could produce up to 913 million tonnes of hydrogen at a low cost by 2050, making it the region with the most significant potential in the world. At the same time, its geographical position connects it to both Asia and Europe.
Chile and Brazil lead the continental race, with almost thirty projects under study each. Argentina, a little further behind, has one of the world's largest initiatives worth 8 billion dollars (7.457 billion euros at current exchange rates). By way of reference, the largest investment announced in Spain, that of the oil company Cepsa in Andalusia, is less than half that.
"When Latin America looks to Europe, the entry point is the Iberian peninsula," Brey says. "What we can't do is sit here in Europe and wait for them to make their investments in renewables, infrastructure, ports and other key components. It's just not going to work," he says with conviction.
Many of these projects, especially in renewable generation, are already underway. In 2019, the latest data available, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile were among the 20 countries in the world with the highest investment in this sector, and Spanish companies have actively participated in this phenomenon. For example, Iberdrola inaugurated a hybrid project in Brazil in March for more than 630 million euros.
The potential is confident. The International Energy Agency points out that, despite the high level of decarbonisation of the energy matrix in most Latin American countries, the region needs to rethink the entire value chain to take advantage of the hydrogen opportunity. This implies modernising its transmission lines, generating new transport infrastructure and port terminals. At the same time, 17 million people in the region lack access to electricity, a social debt that the region must address.
News round-up, May 24, 2023
Words of the editor…
In reference to the remarks made by Mexican President Manuel López Obrador and published in today's New York Times:
Mexican President Said He Told Ally Not to Worry About Being Spied On
The leader acknowledged that he had been told the government’s top human rights official was targeted by spyware, but sought to downplay the surveillance on Tuesday.
They reminded me of Pablo Neruda's vivid description of that beloved country, with its diverse anthropological and geographic features, and the many dear friends I have there.
"Mexico Florido y Espinoso (Flower-filled and Thorny Mexico).
Pablo Neruda, whose original name was Neftalí Ricardo Reyes Basoalto, was a Chilean poet born on July 12, 1904, in Parral. Neruda's literary works were often a subject of controversy during his lifetime. The individual in question was renowned for his affinity towards women, fine wines, and penchant for amassing diverse objects. Some individuals have characterized him as a pseudo-communist. However, according to legends, it is also suggested that the Chilean poet was the forbidden "Adonis" of two other prominent figures in the arts and humanities: the renowned Federico García Lorca, who was born on June 5, 1898, in Spain and was brutally murdered in Andalucía on August 18, 1936, by the Francoist authorities, just a month after the —coup d'état— that initiated the Spanish Civil War (1936 to 1939); and the eccentric yet brilliant creator Salvador Dalí, who was born on May 11, 1904, and passed away on January 23, 1989, in Spain. Both Lorca and Dalí were said to have fallen in love with the Chilean poet. Don Pablo Neruda's significant contribution to saving the lives of thousands of people during the Spanish Civil War is not widely recognized* . Despite the contentious aspects of his life, Neruda's literary heritage as a poet of love continues to inspire many individuals across the globe. In 1971, he was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature for his earnest love poems, featured in his anthology: "Twenty Love Poems and a Song of Despair" (1924). In September 1973, Neruda was admitted to the hospital for cancer treatment amidst the political turmoil of the Augusto Pinochet-led coup, which resulted in the overthrow of the Allende government. Upon returning home several days later, he harbored suspicions that a physician had administered an unidentified substance to him under Pinochet's directive with the intention of attempting an assassination. On September 23, 1973, Pablo Neruda, died at his residence in Isla Negra; this unfortunate event occurred shortly after his discharge from the hospital**.
Pablo Neruda's literary works about Mexico are imbued with a sense of sanguinity and a conviction in the nation's optimistic prospects. The fascinating features of Mexico's diverse landscape, including its vibrant flowers and prickly cacti, left a lasting impression on him. The individual traveled extensively throughout the country, engaging in immersive experiences within bustling markets and expressing admiration for the remarkable diversity of the people and cultures encountered. The author perceived Mexico as a fascinating and enchanting location, imbued with a rich historical legacy and vibrant with the cadences of traditional music. Neruda was profoundly affected by the cenotes of Yucatan, which bear the enigmatic marks of the ancient peoples of Mexico on the landscape. This experience left a lasting impression on him. Despite the various challenges encountered by this great nation, Neruda cherished it deeply, regarding it as a luminous emblem of our planet's remarkable diversity and vitality.
Nevertheless, to the feelings of the wonderful Chilean poet, as well as a womanizer, thirsty for good wines and hoarder of strange things, historical evidence presents a contrasting perspective: Mexico remains a land of explosive and vibrant flavors and colors, where unfortunately, disputes challenging the established power structure are resolved through violent means rather than peaceful discourse.
Quote of the day…
Putin also brought up the issue of mysterious blasts at Russia-designed Nord Stream undersea pipelines.
"They blew up Nord Stream 1, didn't start Nord Stream 2," he said, referring to the twin gas pipelines from Russia across the Baltic Sea to Germany that were severely damaged by explosions last September.
Russia, without providing evidence, has repeatedly said the West was behind the blasts. Investigators from Sweden and Denmark - in whose exclusive economic zones the explosions occurred - have said the ruptures were a result of sabotage, but have not said who they believe was responsible.
Welcome Your New Expert Interview Series:
Germán Toro Ghio, New Expert in The Energy Collective - [an Energy Central Power Perspectives™ Expert Interview]
POSTED TO ENERGY CENTRAL IN THE ENERGY COLLECTIVE GROUP, TODAY MATT CHESTER /Energy Analyst, Chester Energy and Policy Member since 2018/11,408 items added with 1,677,261 views Official Energy Central Community Manager of Generation and Energy Management Networks. Matt is an energy analyst in Orlando FL (by way of Washington DC) working as an independent energy... “Gone are the days where energy news was niche and only for those working and trading in the industry. Now, when there’s major news in the world of utilities or oil and gas companies, that news makes mainstream headlines. And that shift is with good reason, as the constant developments in energy are now more than ever critical to assessing the state of the economy, of international geopolitics, of our everyday way of life.
Because of that, keeping tabs on the latest conversations taking place to shape the energy industry are more important than ever, but they also might take more time than ever. But when we have experts in the community who can sift through the news and highlight for you what’s most timely, impactful, and worth your time, that benefits everyone. And that’s the task that Germán Toro Ghio has taken, even before being added to our Energy Central Network of Experts.
Germán is the CEO at Germán & Co, and you’ll likely recognize the work he’s already put in with sharing the most notable and critical international energy news stories with our community. He’ll continue these efforts now as one of our Experts in The Energy Collective, and he also recent sat down with us for the latest iteration of our New Expert Member Interview series:
Matt Chester: Thanks for agreeing to be one of our experts, Germán. Why don’t we start with you introducing yourself and your background to our community: what is your experience leading to this point in the energy industry and what is your role today?
Germán Toro Ghio: In a world that has changed and where bad news has turned into a nightmare, it is challenging and tiresome to talk about oneself. The world has changed so much; it is becoming increasingly difficult to envisage that we will ever be the same again. How we live, work, and relate to each other has been altered forever, and we try desperately to adapt to the new reality and here we must be very careful especially with trends.
That said, I was born in Santiago, the capital of southern Chile. I am a professional photographer, but I have been linked to the communications world since the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
By accident, I would say, I reached the electrical sector. I became public relations and communications manager for the Spanish company Unión Fenosa in its subsidiaries in Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic in 2000. I assumed the Corporate Vice-Presidency of Communication of AES Dominicana in the second half of 2004 until January 2018, since this has been an advisory for AES Corporation and other sector institutions.
For two decades, I have travelled through the industry's genesis in all its areas, thus creating a life in which I feel passionate about the sector. My participation in the natural gas promotion strategy has been crucial, starting with learning the product, its transportation methods, regasification characteristics, and types of markets where gas is commercialized with particular emphasis on the differentiation of the NYMEX price concerning the European market. In terms of marketing, I've created more than 70 advertisements to promote natural gas and the electrical industry.
MC: You are very plugged into the way that news in the energy industry impacts the wider world, and we thank you for sharing those insights for our community. Why do you think tracking energy and oil news is so critical at this point in time? Do you find there is sufficient coverage about this area?
GTG: The point here is not whether the sector's coverage is sufficient. I will try to answer the question with a reflection I wrote a few days ago: Although the human being is the result of the fusion of male and female gametes, two people are inevitably needed for procreation. However, due to this dual nature and the fact that we build our lives within a tribe, humans are inclined to become selfish, possessive, and jealous of their territory, which takes them further away from their beginnings. We are so entrenched in our small territory that we forget about global analysis. That is the great danger.
MC: We are no doubt in unprecedented times geopolitically when it comes that the oil and gas sector, between the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to OPEC influence to U.S. and its allies trying to counter all of that amid economic uncertainty. What do you think members of the Energy Central community, people who are entrenched in the utility sector, should be doing to prepare for how the coming years may play out?
GTG: Wow, that's quite a thought-provoking question. It reminds me of those lengthy and arduous corporate strategic planning sessions, where we'd often explore the most improbable and absurd scenarios to fulfil our due diligence. Sadly, we now know that some of these scenarios have become a reality with disastrous consequences for the global economy and humanity. Reflecting on these events, we must remain transparent and critical in our analysis. One of these scenarios resulted from a grave political mistake regarding essential facilities and infrastructure for the energy sector; the other health echo is still shrouded in mystery and speculation. It serves as a sobering reminder of how easily our world can crumble and how crucial it is to make wise choices that put everyone's safety and well-being first.
MC: What are the current news stories in the energy sector that have you most concerned for the coming years? And on the other hand, where do you see the greatest reason for optimism in the energy industry ahead?
GTG: I reiterate I am concerned about the trends and the hasty decisions. And here I don't want to go into detail about new technologies. Since all are welcome, what cannot be forgotten and never is that the sector requires firm and reliable power and a constant fuel supply. If we can be optimistic, it is that politicians have learned their lesson, for example in the case of Europe that could not depend on a single pipe and a single supplier, that was a tragic error.
MC: Why did you feel compelled to get more involved in the Energy Central Community? And what value do you hope to bring to your peers on the platform?
GTG: For information that is provided on the sector every second, but above all the infinite intelligence accumulated from extraordinary professionals in one place. It is trying to make the importance of in-depth analysis and 360-degree vision prevail.
So, thank you for inviting me to participate in such an extraordinary platform.
________________________________________
Thanks to Germán Toro Ghio for joining me for this interview and for providing a wealth of insights and expertise to the Energy Central Community. You can trust that Germán will be available for you to reach out and connect, ask questions, and more as an Energy Central member, so be sure to make him feel welcome when you see her across the platform.
Most Read…
Mexican President Said He Told Ally Not to Worry About Being Spied On
The leader acknowledged that he had been told the government’s top human rights official was targeted by spyware, but sought to downplay the surveillance on Tuesday.
NYT BY NATALIE KITROEFF AND RONEN BERGMAN, MAY 23, 2023 Wagner Chief’s Feud With Russian Military Cracks Putin’s Image of Control
Prigozhin’s public criticism of Moscow’s generals and defense minister reveals strains in the mighty leadership structure the Russian president built
WSJ BY YAROSLAV TROFIMOV, MAY 24, 2023 China prioritising Turkmenistan over Russia in next big pipeline project
Moscow is currently working on securing its second Siberia pipeline connection with China, known as the Power of Siberia 2. This move is seen as an effort to compensate for the decrease in sales to Europe caused by the Ukraine crisis. Chinese oil officials and industry consultants believe this presents an opportunity for Beijing to advance its central Asian project further.
REUTERS BY CHEN AIZHU AND MARAT GURT MAY 24, 20238/EDTING BY GERMAN & CO Putin says energy prices approaching 'economically justified' levels
"It's disappointing that Nord Stream 1 was blown up and Nord Stream 2 hasn't started yet due to the severe damage caused by explosions in September. Russia blames the West, but there's no evidence to support this. Swedish and Danish investigators suspect sabotage, but they haven't identified who's responsible. Hopefully, we'll get some answers soon."
REUTERS, MAY 24, 2023/EDITING BY GERMÁN & COImage:by Germán & CoWords of the editor…
In reference to the remarks made by Mexican President Manuel López Obrador and published in today's New York Times:
Mexican President Said He Told Ally Not to Worry About Being Spied On
The leader acknowledged that he had been told the government’s top human rights official was targeted by spyware, but sought to downplay the surveillance on Tuesday.
They reminded me of Pablo Neruda's vivid description of that beloved country, with its diverse anthropological and geographic features, and the many dear friends I have there.
"Mexico Florido y Espinoso (Flower-filled and Thorny Mexico).
Pablo Neruda, whose original name was Neftalí Ricardo Reyes Basoalto, was a Chilean poet born on July 12, 1904, in Parral. Neruda's literary works were often a subject of controversy during his lifetime. The individual in question was renowned for his affinity towards women, fine wines, and penchant for amassing diverse objects. Some individuals have characterized him as a pseudo-communist. However, according to legends, it is also suggested that the Chilean poet was the forbidden "Adonis" of two other prominent figures in the arts and humanities: the renowned Federico García Lorca, who was born on June 5, 1898, in Spain and was brutally murdered in Andalucía on August 18, 1936, by the Francoist authorities, just a month after the —coup d'état— that initiated the Spanish Civil War (1936 to 1939); and the eccentric yet brilliant creator Salvador Dalí, who was born on May 11, 1904, and passed away on January 23, 1989, in Spain. Both Lorca and Dalí were said to have fallen in love with the Chilean poet. Don Pablo Neruda's significant contribution to saving the lives of thousands of people during the Spanish Civil War is not widely recognized* . Despite the contentious aspects of his life, Neruda's literary heritage as a poet of love continues to inspire many individuals across the globe. In 1971, he was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature for his earnest love poems, featured in his anthology: "Twenty Love Poems and a Song of Despair" (1924). In September 1973, Neruda was admitted to the hospital for cancer treatment amidst the political turmoil of the Augusto Pinochet-led coup, which resulted in the overthrow of the Allende government. Upon returning home several days later, he harbored suspicions that a physician had administered an unidentified substance to him under Pinochet's directive with the intention of attempting an assassination. On September 23, 1973, Pablo Neruda, died at his residence in Isla Negra; this unfortunate event occurred shortly after his discharge from the hospital**.
Pablo Neruda's literary works about Mexico are imbued with a sense of sanguinity and a conviction in the nation's optimistic prospects. The fascinating features of Mexico's diverse landscape, including its vibrant flowers and prickly cacti, left a lasting impression on him. The individual traveled extensively throughout the country, engaging in immersive experiences within bustling markets and expressing admiration for the remarkable diversity of the people and cultures encountered. The author perceived Mexico as a fascinating and enchanting location, imbued with a rich historical legacy and vibrant with the cadences of traditional music. Neruda was profoundly affected by the cenotes of Yucatan, which bear the enigmatic marks of the ancient peoples of Mexico on the landscape. This experience left a lasting impression on him. Despite the various challenges encountered by this great nation, Neruda cherished it deeply, regarding it as a luminous emblem of our planet's remarkable diversity and vitality.
Nevertheless, to the feelings of the wonderful Chilean poet, as well as a womanizer, thirsty for good wines and hoarder of strange things, historical evidence presents a contrasting perspective: Mexico remains a land of explosive and vibrant flavors and colors, where unfortunately, disputes challenging the established power structure are resolved through violent means rather than peaceful discourse.
*https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/20/books/review/a-long-petal-of-the-sea-isabel-allende.html**https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/travel/pablo-nerudas-love-nest-like-his-poetry-its-filled-with-passion/2015/11/19/ffb36d5e-889d-11e5-be8b-1ae2e4f50f76_story.htmlQuote of the day…
Putin also brought up the issue of mysterious blasts at Russia-designed Nord Stream undersea pipelines.
"They blew up Nord Stream 1, didn't start Nord Stream 2," he said, referring to the twin gas pipelines from Russia across the Baltic Sea to Germany that were severely damaged by explosions last September.
Russia, without providing evidence, has repeatedly said the West was behind the blasts. Investigators from Sweden and Denmark - in whose exclusive economic zones the explosions occurred - have said the ruptures were a result of sabotage, but have not said who they believe was responsible.
Welcome Your New Expert Interview Series:
Germán Toro Ghio, New Expert in The Energy Collective - [an Energy Central Power Perspectives™ Expert Interview]
Posted to Energy Central in The Energy Collective Group, today
MATT CHESTER /Energy Analyst, Chester Energy and Policy Member since 2018/11,408 items added with 1,677,261 viewsOfficial Energy Central Community Manager of Generation and Energy Management Networks. Matt is an energy analyst in Orlando FL (by way of Washington DC) working as an independent energy...Gone are the days where energy news was niche and only for those working and trading in the industry. Now, when there’s major news in the world of utilities or oil and gas companies, that news makes mainstream headlines. And that shift is with good reason, as the constant developments in energy are now more than ever critical to assessing the state of the economy, of international geopolitics, of our everyday way of life.
Because of that, keeping tabs on the latest conversations taking place to shape the energy industry are more important than ever, but they also might take more time than ever. But when we have experts in the community who can sift through the news and highlight for you what’s most timely, impactful, and worth your time, that benefits everyone. And that’s the task that Germán Toro Ghio has taken, even before being added to our Energy Central Network of Experts.
Germán is the CEO at Germán & Co, and you’ll likely recognize the work he’s already put in with sharing the most notable and critical international energy news stories with our community. He’ll continue these efforts now as one of our Experts in The Energy Collective, and he also recent sat down with us for the latest iteration of our New Expert Member Interview series:
Matt Chester: Thanks for agreeing to be one of our experts, Germán. Why don’t we start with you introducing yourself and your background to our community: what is your experience leading to this point in the energy industry and what is your role today?
Germán Toro Ghio: In a world that has changed and where bad news has turned into a nightmare, it is challenging and tiresome to talk about oneself. The world has changed so much; it is becoming increasingly difficult to envisage that we will ever be the same again. How we live, work, and relate to each other has been altered forever, and we try desperately to adapt to the new reality and here we must be very careful especially with trends.
That said, I was born in Santiago, the capital of southern Chile. I am a professional photographer, but I have been linked to the communications world since the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
By accident, I would say, I reached the electrical sector. I became public relations and communications manager for the Spanish company Unión Fenosa in its subsidiaries in Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic in 2000. I assumed the Corporate Vice-Presidency of Communication of AES Dominicana in the second half of 2004 until January 2018, since this has been an advisory for AES Corporation and other sector institutions.
For two decades, I have travelled through the industry's genesis in all its areas, thus creating a life in which I feel passionate about the sector. My participation in the natural gas promotion strategy has been crucial, starting with learning the product, its transportation methods, regasification characteristics, and types of markets where gas is commercialized with particular emphasis on the differentiation of the NYMEX price concerning the European market. In terms of marketing, I've created more than 70 advertisements to promote natural gas and the electrical industry.
MC: You are very plugged into the way that news in the energy industry impacts the wider world, and we thank you for sharing those insights for our community. Why do you think tracking energy and oil news is so critical at this point in time? Do you find there is sufficient coverage about this area?
GTG: The point here is not whether the sector's coverage is sufficient. I will try to answer the question with a reflection I wrote a few days ago: Although the human being is the result of the fusion of male and female gametes, two people are inevitably needed for procreation. However, due to this dual nature and the fact that we build our lives within a tribe, humans are inclined to become selfish, possessive, and jealous of their territory, which takes them further away from their beginnings. We are so entrenched in our small territory that we forget about global analysis. That is the great danger.
MC: We are no doubt in unprecedented times geopolitically when it comes that the oil and gas sector, between the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to OPEC influence to U.S. and its allies trying to counter all of that amid economic uncertainty. What do you think members of the Energy Central community, people who are entrenched in the utility sector, should be doing to prepare for how the coming years may play out?
GTG: Wow, that's quite a thought-provoking question. It reminds me of those lengthy and arduous corporate strategic planning sessions, where we'd often explore the most improbable and absurd scenarios to fulfil our due diligence. Sadly, we now know that some of these scenarios have become a reality with disastrous consequences for the global economy and humanity. Reflecting on these events, we must remain transparent and critical in our analysis. One of these scenarios resulted from a grave political mistake regarding essential facilities and infrastructure for the energy sector; the other health echo is still shrouded in mystery and speculation. It serves as a sobering reminder of how easily our world can crumble and how crucial it is to make wise choices that put everyone's safety and well-being first.
MC: What are the current news stories in the energy sector that have you most concerned for the coming years? And on the other hand, where do you see the greatest reason for optimism in the energy industry ahead?
GTG: I reiterate I am concerned about the trends and the hasty decisions. And here I don't want to go into detail about new technologies. Since all are welcome, what cannot be forgotten and never is that the sector requires firm and reliable power and a constant fuel supply. If we can be optimistic, it is that politicians have learned their lesson, for example in the case of Europe that could not depend on a single pipe and a single supplier, that was a tragic error.
MC: Why did you feel compelled to get more involved in the Energy Central Community? And what value do you hope to bring to your peers on the platform?
GTG: For information that is provided on the sector every second, but above all the infinite intelligence accumulated from extraordinary professionals in one place. It is trying to make the importance of in-depth analysis and 360-degree vision prevail.
So, thank you for inviting me to participate in such an extraordinary platform.
________________________________________
Thanks to Germán Toro Ghio for joining me for this interview and for providing a wealth of insights and expertise to the Energy Central Community. You can trust that Germán will be available for you to reach out and connect, ask questions, and more as an Energy Central member, so be sure to make him feel welcome when you see her across the platform.
Most Read…
Mexican President Said He Told Ally Not to Worry About Being Spied On
The leader acknowledged that he had been told the government’s top human rights official was targeted by spyware, but sought to downplay the surveillance on Tuesday.
NYT By Natalie Kitroeff and Ronen Bergman, May 23, 2023Wagner Chief’s Feud With Russian Military Cracks Putin’s Image of Control
Prigozhin’s public criticism of Moscow’s generals and defense minister reveals strains in the mighty leadership structure the Russian president built
WSJ By Yaroslav Trofimov, May 24, 2023 China prioritising Turkmenistan over Russia in next big pipeline project
Moscow is currently working on securing its second Siberia pipeline connection with China, known as the Power of Siberia 2. This move is seen as an effort to compensate for the decrease in sales to Europe caused by the Ukraine crisis. Chinese oil officials and industry consultants believe this presents an opportunity for Beijing to advance its central Asian project further.
REUTERS By Chen Aizhu and Marat Gurt May 24, 20238/Edting by German & CoPutin says energy prices approaching 'economically justified' levels
"It's disappointing that Nord Stream 1 was blown up and Nord Stream 2 hasn't started yet due to the severe damage caused by explosions in September. Russia blames the West, but there's no evidence to support this. Swedish and Danish investigators suspect sabotage, but they haven't identified who's responsible. Hopefully, we'll get some answers soon."
Reuters, May 24, 2023/EDITING BY GERMÁN & CoThe AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Image by Germán & CoMexican President Said He Told Ally Not to Worry About Being Spied On
The leader acknowledged that he had been told the government’s top human rights official was targeted by spyware, but sought to downplay the surveillance on Tuesday.
NYT By Natalie Kitroeff and Ronen Bergman, May 23, 2023*Natalie Kitroeff reported from Mexico City and Ronen Bergman from Tel Aviv.The Mexican president admitted Tuesday that he had been informed that his top human rights official was being spied on, but said he told the official not to worry about it.
The admission comes a day after The New York Times revealed that Alejandro Encinas, the Mexican government’s under secretary for human rights, was hacked by the world’s most notorious spyware while he was investigating abuses by the country’s military.
“He told me about it and I told him not to give it any importance because there was no intention of spying on anybody,” President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said after being asked about The Times’s report in his regular morning news conference on Tuesday.
Mr. López Obrador, who took office in 2018, vowed to stop the “illegal” and “immoral” surveillance of the past and has said his government does not spy on anyone.
Mr. Encinas was targeted repeatedly by the spyware known as Pegasus as recently as last year, according to four people who spoke with him about the spying and by an independent forensic analysis that confirmed it.
Pegasus can infiltrate cellphones without leaving any trace of an intrusion and extract every piece of data from them: every text message, every email, every photo. The system can even watch people through the phone’s camera and listen to them through its microphone.
The people who spoke with Mr. Encinas said he learned the details of the hacks after they were confirmed by Citizen Lab, a watchdog group based out of the University of Toronto.
Citizen Lab declined to comment.
The Israeli-made spy tool has infected thousands of cellphones across the world and is licensed to be sold only to government agencies.
There is no definitive proof of who was behind the hacks of Mr. Encinas’s phone, but in Mexico, the only entity that has access to Pegasus is the military, according to five people familiar with the contracts for the spyware.
Mr. Encinas leads the government’s truth commission into the 2014 disappearance of 43 students, one of the worst human rights violations in the country’s recent history. He and his team have accused the military of playing a role in the mass abduction of the students.
This is the first time there has been a publicly confirmed case of Pegasus spying on such a senior member of an administration in Mexico, let alone someone so close to the president.
When asked whether the government would investigate the surveillance of Mr. Encinas, who has been Mr. López Obrador’s friend and ally for decades, the president said, “No, we do not spy.”
Several rights groups condemned Mr. López Obrador’s comments.
“We regret that the president minimizes the espionage his administration carries out,” tweeted the Centro Prodh, a human rights organization whose employees were spied on with Pegasus last year.
A group of independent experts conducting an inquiry into the 43 students’ disappearance called for the attorney general’s office to investigate the cyber attacks on Mr. Encinas, calling them “acts that violate the right to liberty, to privacy.”
Under former President Enrique Peña Nieto, there were several Pegasus machines in Mexico controlled by the attorney general’s office, the country’s spy agency and the military.
But by 2019, all Pegasus systems in the country had been disconnected except for the one operated by the military, according to four people familiar with the contracts signed in Mexico.
After the Biden administration blacklisted the spyware’s manufacturer, NSO Group, in 2021, the Israeli Ministry of Defense said it would take steps to prevent the system from being used for anything other than fighting serious crime and terrorism.
The defense ministry then ordered several countries to be disconnected from Pegasus, but did not cancel the Mexican army’s license and later extended it. A spokesman for the ministry declined to comment.
NSO Group has opened an investigation into the reported abuses of Pegasus in Mexico, according to a person familiar with the company’s compliance protocols.
It is unclear how such an inquiry would affect the fate of the spyware in Mexico, where Pegasus has been used against human rights defenders and journalists for years with almost no accountability.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image: Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage in Texas. The U.S.’s second effort to buy oil for the SPR is based on price differentials. PHOTO: BRANDON BELL/Editing by Germán & CoWagner Chief’s Feud With Russian Military Cracks Putin’s Image of Control
Prigozhin’s public criticism of Moscow’s generals and defense minister reveals strains in the mighty leadership structure the Russian president built
WSJ By Yaroslav Trofimov, May 24, 2023 The owner of Russia’s Wagner paramilitary organization, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stood amid the ruins of the conquered Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on May 20 and unleashed a tirade against his foes.
Their names: Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s minister of defense, and Valeriy Gerasimov, Russia’s top general.
“Shoigu and Gerasimov have turned the war into personal entertainment,” Prigozhin thundered as he announced Wagner’s costly victory in Bakhmut. “Because of their whims, five times more guys than had been supposed to die have died. They will be held responsible for their actions, which in Russian are called crimes.”
The escalating conflict between the owner of Wagner and Russia’s top military leadership, a tale of perceived betrayal with roots in the Syrian war, represents the first significant crack in the country’s establishment since the invasion of Ukraine began more than a year ago.
The extent to which it has become public in recent weeks, affecting military operations, shows that Moscow’s setbacks on the front line are putting under strain the formidable system of power that has been created by President Vladimir Putin over the past two decades.
Russia Claims Control of Bakhmut: The Bloodiest Battle of the Ukraine War
Russia has claimed control of Bakhmut after months of fighting over the eastern Ukrainian city. WSJ explains how the city turned into the bloodiest and one of the longest battles of the Ukraine war. Credit: Concord Group Press Office/Zuma Press
Fearful of potential challengers, Putin, 70, has long promoted rivalries among subordinates. These intrigues, however, used to be hidden from the public eye. The vitriol of the confrontation between Prigozhin’s private army, which numbers tens of thousands of veterans, many of them recruited in prisons, and the country’s military leadership has shattered that mold.
“Looking at this conflict, the main conclusion drawn by Russian elites is that Putin is not capable of regulating these relations. It means that Putin has become so weak that the power vertical is coming undone,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter and a political analyst who has become a vocal critic of the regime. “In times of war, keeping a united front is the basic task of a state. And Putin is unable to achieve that.”
Just how much this quarrel can destabilize Russia is difficult to gauge, Western officials say. “The system is hard but brittle. You never know when it will break,” one senior U.S. official said.
Wagner’s seizure of Bakhmut, with a prewar population of just 70,000, was the first material Russian advance in 10 months. In the same period, the regular Russian military has lost much greater territory throughout southern and eastern Ukraine, a fact Prigozhin constantly repeats.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu left, and Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov at a meeting in Sochi in November 2020. PHOTO: ALEXEY NIKOLSKY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Putin himself has kept switching between the two sides as Russia’s military fortunes ebbed and flowed, bringing in and out of favor generals who appeared to be aligned with Prigozhin, his confidant and former caterer.
Wagner’s recent successes have elevated Prigozhin’s stock once again, prompting some U.S. officials to wonder whether he could become Putin’s successor. In a snub to his nemesis, Prigozhin has already recruited to Wagner a deputy defense minister who had just been fired by Defense Minister Shoigu.
In recording after recording, some with the bodies of Wagner’s dead soldiers as a backdrop, Prigozhin has unleashed choice curses on Shoigu and Gerasimov, accusing them of throttling the supply of weapons and ammunition to settle political scores. The ministry of defense, in a bland statement, has responded that it is providing Wagner with everything it requires.
“They are killing our soldiers, and the happy grandpa thinks that he’s doing well,” Prigozhin, 61, said in one such recent attack on Gerasimov, 67. “What will our country do, what will happen to our children, our grandchildren, to the future of Russia, and how will we win the war if it turns out that grandpa is a complete moron?”
While Shoigu and Gerasimov, aware of Prigozhin’s personal relationship with Putin, have abstained from retorting in public, some retired generals in the Russian parliament have shot back.
Wagner is “an illegal military formation. It’s not clear where it is registered and what it does,” retired Lt. Gen. Viktor Sobolev said. Many of Wagner’s practices are indeed contrary to Russian laws, including its much-publicized custom of executing deserters, often with a skull-engraved sledgehammer.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, questioned by reporters about the conflict between Wagner and the ministry of defense, said earlier this month that he had listened to Prigozhin’s statements but “cannot comment because it concerns the course of the special military operation.”
This public fight is especially remarkable because of the near-total suppression of political debate in wartime Russia. Russian security services have been extremely efficient in rooting out the liberal opposition, driving tens of thousands of opponents of the war to exile and silencing most others with draconian punishments. Under laws promulgated early last year, “discrediting” Russian armed forces, even with a Facebook like, routinely leads to lengthy prison sentences.
A view of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the site of heavy battles with Russian forces, on April 26. PHOTO: LIBKOS/ASSOCIATED PRESS/Editing by Germán & CoPrigozhin hasn’t been constrained by these rules. In daily statements and videos, he delivers philippics about the weaknesses of the Russian military strategy, the real strength of the Ukrainian army and the mismanagement and alleged cowardice of the regular Russian troops.
These outbursts aren’t usually shown on state TV, but they are amplified by a fleet of hypernationalist commentators on Wagner’s payroll, many with social-media audiences in the hundreds of thousands. In recent weeks, Prigozhin expanded his target list from the military brass to what he has described as “clowns on Old Square”—the address of Putin’s presidential administration.
Such no-holds-barred campaigning, creating a narrative of Prigozhin standing up to the powerful traitors who steal Russia’s victory, would be impossible without Putin’s assent, Russia-watchers and Western officials say.
“Prigozhin is hated by the generals,” said Mikhail Kasyanov, who served as Russia’s prime minister during Putin’s first term and now lives in exile. “His fate, and his very physical existence, entirely depend on Putin. Once Putin goes, Prigozhin goes too.”
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov at a military parade in Grozny last May. PHOTO: CHINGIS KONDAROV/REUTERS
The consequences of the hostility between Prigozhin and the regular military shouldn’t be overestimated, cautioned Andrei Kozyrev, a former Russian foreign minister, who pointed out that similar splits existed in the Nazi regime during World War II. “Wehrmacht’s officers also hated the SS, but all of them took part in the war despite that hatred,” he said. “Their tension was real. Yet Hitler’s Germany kept resisting until the last day, all together.”
Ukrainian commanders, meanwhile, have praised opposite sides, fanning the enmity. Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy, Ukraine’s military commander-in-chief, has repeatedly lauded Gerasimov’s military talents.
Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence, used a recent TV interview to shower Prigozhin with compliments. “What Prigozhin says is mostly truth,” he said, adding that Wagner “has shown its utmost effectiveness, unlike the Russian army, which has shown its utmost lack of effectiveness.” Shoigu and Gerasimov, Budanov said, are driven by jealousy in their attempt to deprive Wagner of resources.
A former convict who spent 10 years in Soviet prisons for robbery and theft, Prigozhin, like Putin, hails from St. Petersburg’s rough neighborhoods. He supported democratic reforms as the Soviet Union collapsed, and initially found his calling in opening some of the city’s most fashionable restaurants, personally pouring wine to celebrity guests such as then-President George W. Bush in 2006.
Created as a deniable instrument of Russian influence, Wagner saw some of its first action in the Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014, but grew into a significant military force only after the Russian intervention in Syria the following year.
Prigozhin was better known at the time as the owner of an online propaganda operation, the Internet Research Agency, that according to the FBI interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. A U.S. arrest warrant was issued for him in 2018.
Until last August, Prigozhin denied he had anything to do with Wagner, and in 2021 even sued a British journalist in London for naming him as the owner of the mercenary force. In reality, as he later admitted, he was intimately involved with Wagner’s operations in Syria, spending considerable time in the country.
A recent book of memoirs by Kirill Romanovsky, a war correspondent for Prigozhin’s RIA-FAN news agency, who followed Wagner around the world and died of cancer in January, described Prigozhin sitting next to an inebriated Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov, then commander of Russian forces of Syria. They were on a hilltop as they observed Wagner’s battle to retake the city of Palmyra from Islamic State in 2016.
Wagner’s men sustained heavy losses and its artillery was running out of ammunition. “Bastard, give us at least 100 shells,” Prigozhin yelled at Dvornikov, according to the book. The general was on the phone with Moscow, busy taking credit, it added.
Even though it was Wagner that seized the city, the Russian ministry of defense later issued medals for taking Palmyra even to secretaries in its Moscow headquarters, but not to the actual fighters, Prigozhin complained this month.
The Russian military brass had plenty of reasons to dislike Wagner and its owner, with his direct line to Putin. Thanks to high salaries and a flexible if fiercely brutal culture, Prigozhin’s private army had begun to recruit away the regular military’s best officers and soldiers.
The real rupture occurred two years later. On the evening of Feb. 7, 2018, Wagner forces began an attack on an area known as Hasham, with its oil fields once operated by Conoco, in Syria’s Deir-ez-Zor province. The U.S. maintained a small special-operations outpost there. As soon as it came under Wagner’s shelling, the Pentagon tried to get Shoigu on the line, then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis testified to Congress.
The reply from Moscow, according to Mattis, was that “it was not their people.” Mattis ordered the attacking force annihilated. Within hours, hundreds of Russian mercenaries were killed or maimed in American strikes that involved assault helicopters, drones, an AC-130 gunship and Himars missiles. Moscow remained silent.
According to Romanovsky’s book, which describes the carnage in gruesome detail, Wagner’s men had been assured they would be protected by Russian aircraft and air defenses. “We were simply betrayed,” he wrote. “When we began the assault, we didn’t know that the only aircraft above us was American, and that the air-defense guys were all hiding under girls’ skirts.”
Prigozhin said he wasn’t asked to help out in Ukraine until three weeks after the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion, when Russian forces failed to seize Kyiv and “the special military operation went off the plan.” Soon, his units flown in from Africa entered the battle in eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk province, achieving a series of breakthroughs.
Even as Wagner dramatically expanded recruitment, lowering standards, the grinding combat quickly exhausted the supply of volunteers. Prigozhin’s solution was to tap the vast resources of Russia’s penitentiary system, enlisting violent criminals with the promise of pardons—something only Putin could deliver—should they survive six months in Ukraine.
As Russia retreated in southern and eastern Ukraine last fall, Prigozhin’s area of operations near Bakhmut was the only one where Russian forces advanced, albeit very slowly.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) logo and stock graph are seen through magnifier displayed in this illustration taken September 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoChina prioritising Turkmenistan over Russia in next big pipeline project
Moscow is currently working on securing its second Siberia pipeline connection with China, known as the Power of Siberia 2. This move is seen as an effort to compensate for the decrease in sales to Europe caused by the Ukraine crisis. Chinese oil officials and industry consultants believe this presents an opportunity for Beijing to advance its central Asian project further.
REUTERS By Chen Aizhu and Marat Gurt May 24, 20238/Edting by German & CoSINGAPORE/ASHGABAT, May 24 (Reuters) - China is accelerating the building of a long-delayed Central Asian pipeline to source gas from Turkmenistan even as Russia pushes its own new Siberian connection, as Beijing juggles its energy security needs with diplomatic priorities.
Beijing is keen to bolster Central Asia ties under its Belt & Road Initiative, but nearly a decade after construction began, the "Line D" project has been hobbled by complex price talks and the technical hurdles of laying a pipeline crossing another three central Asian nations, Chinese state oil officials said.
But Moscow's recent push to land its second Siberia pipeline connection with China, the Power of Siberia 2, to make up for shrunken sales in Europe due to the Ukraine crisis, provides Beijing a lever to advance the central Asian project, according to Chinese oil officials and industry consultants.
"Central Asian pipelines are considered a cornerstone investment in China's energy and geopolitical space. It's a supply channel with strategic value that supersedes commercial concerns," a state-oil official familiar with China National Petroleum Corp's (CNPC) global strategy told Reuters.
China may eventually seal both deals to feed its massive long-term gas needs, but is prioritising Turkmenistan, industry officials said, as Beijing has long seen Central Asia as a frontier to expand trade, secure energy and maintain stability in its once-restive western Xinjiang region.
Combined, multi-year contracts worth tens of billions of dollars to bring gas via both pipelines would meet 20% of China's current demand. The pipelines are key to Beijing's goal of using gas as a bridge fuel towards its carbon neutrality targets and also helping to shield it from the volatile tanker-carried liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.
Estimated in 2014 to cost $6.7 billion, Line D would carry 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year.
Speaking last week at the first in-person summit of central Asian leaders in the ancient Silk Road city of Xian, President Xi Jinping urged parties to accelerate laying Line D, which would be China's fourth gas pipeline to the region, almost a decade after the start of construction in Tajikistan.
In 2022, China imported 35 bcm gas or worth $10.3 billion via three pipelines from Turkmenistan, compared with 16 bcm via a single pipeline from Russia at about $4 billion.
'LINE D GETTING READY'
Reflecting renewed urgency, CNPC last week launched the feasibility study for a 200-kilometer connection from Xinjiang's border with Kyrgyzstan to the Chinese town of Wuqia as the first receiving point, said a senior source involved in appraising the project.
"This means D Line is getting ready," the person told Reuters, adding that construction on the domestic trunkline in Xinjiang could begin next year.
Separately, a CNPC official told Reuters last week that the company's commercial teams are "standing by" awaiting a mandate to advance the project, without elaborating.
Without a final gas supply contract, CNPC has only built part of the first tunnel in the mountainous Tajikistan capital Dushanbe where Line D begins, the official said.
China's state planner the National Development and Reform Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A CNPC spokesperson declined to comment.
Consultancy SIA Energy and Rystad Energy predicted new Turkmenistan gas via Line D could start flowing around 2028 while a new Russian line, designed at 50 bcm a year that sources gas from West Siberia, could start operating in the early 2030s.
IMPORT LOSSES
China is paying some 30% more for Turkmen gas, delivered via three existing pipelines since 2009, than from Russia, which began pumping the fuel from East Siberia in late 2019, Chinese customs data showed.
Facing years of import losses as it is unable to pass on the cost to a regulated domestic market, CNPC has failed to negotiate a lower price for Turkmen fuel in rounds of price reviews, a second industry source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
Ashgabat wanted to be paid "in line with global pricing practices", a Turkmenistan official familiar with the talks said.
Sources and officials declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak with media.
RUSSIA OVERTURES
Still, the price negotiations are likely to be complex as China has multiple supply options that also include domestic production and new long-term LNG contracts with Qatar and the United States, said Jason Feer, Houston-based head of business intelligence at consultancy Poten & Partners.
"The prices need to be high enough to justify the expense of building an expensive pipeline but low enough to be competitive," said Feer.
Moscow's recent overtures to fast-track the shorter Power of Siberia 2 connection, via Mongolia, and a more recent proposal by Almaty to supply China via Khazakhstan offered CNPC leverage in finalising the Turkmen link, said the CNPC official and the second industry source.
"CNPC could use the Russian proposals to bargain for a better price for Line D while taking its time to discuss new Russian supplies," said the second source.
Editing by Germán & CoPutin says energy prices approaching 'economically justified' levels
"It's disappointing that Nord Stream 1 was blown up and Nord Stream 2 hasn't started yet due to the severe damage caused by explosions in September. Russia blames the West, but there's no evidence to support this. Swedish and Danish investigators suspect sabotage, but they haven't identified who's responsible. Hopefully, we'll get some answers soon."
Reuters, May 24, 2023/EDITING BY GERMÁN & CoRussian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik in Moscow, Russia, May 23, 2023. Sputnik/Alexey Filippov/Pool via REUTERS
MOSCOW, May 24 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday energy prices were approaching "economically justified" levels and that Russia was continuing to meet its commitments on energy supplies.
Speaking at a conference of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union in Moscow, Putin also raised the issue of energy shortages in Europe.
"Now, thank God, energy prices are approaching an economically justified level, but who is to blame for what had happened?" he said, speaking in front of the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Putin didn't elaborate on the prices.
On Wednesday, oil prices rose after U.S. crude and fuel supplies tightened and as a warning from the Saudi energy minister to speculators raised the prospect of further cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+.
Some investors took the Saudi comments as a signal that OPEC+ could consider further output cuts at a meeting on June 4, while Putin's remark on prices could be an indicator about no immediate changes to production policy of the group.
Putin said earlier this month oil production cuts, which were implemented by OPEC+, were required to maintain a certain price level, contradicting assurances from other leaders of the group that it was not seeking to manage the market in that way.
Putin also brought up the issue of mysterious blasts at Russia-designed Nord Stream undersea pipelines.
"They blew up Nord Stream 1, didn't start Nord Stream 2," he said, referring to the twin gas pipelines from Russia across the Baltic Sea to Germany that were severely damaged by explosions last September.
Russia, without providing evidence, has repeatedly said the West was behind the blasts. Investigators from Sweden and Denmark - in whose exclusive economic zones the explosions occurred - have said the ruptures were a result of sabotage, but have not said who they believe was responsible.
Natural gas is the new golden currency of political trade…
Erdoğan: I have a ‘special relationship’ with Putin — and it’s only growing
‘Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,’ says Turkish president.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ♥ Vladimir Putin
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, MAY 19, 2023Image: In a speech, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described Vladimir Putin as a "dear friend" | Alexander Nemenov/Editing by Germán & Co"A Swedish Nightmare"
– Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
My article "A Swedish Nightmare," published on February 23, delves into the aftermath of a strategic political move by Russian President Vladimir Putin. This move involved gifting a natural gas hub to Turkey, which caused widespread debate on Turkey's role in preventing neutral Sweden from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). It was clear that Russia under Putin would go to great lengths to prevent Sweden from becoming a member of NATO.
What are the most significant factors that determine a country's geopolitical power, and how does money affect it?
The issue of natural gas and its impact on the global energy markets cannot be ignored. In the current political climate, the decisions made by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could significantly impact the energy industry. The location of a natural gas hub in Turkey, strategically positioned between Asia and Europe, has the potential to dramatically influence the economies of many countries in the region.
The controversy – especially in Scandinavian countries – surrounding Turkey's veto of Sweden's application for NATO membership has been analysed from various perspectives, including historical, political, gender-related, and even stupid and misogynistic accusations.
It's worth noting that even former Swedish foreign minister Ann Linde was blamed for being a woman, which supposedly made it difficult to negotiate with a state where men have held power for centuries.
Sweden's gift of a 1739 treaty to Turkey that has symbolic meaning for both nations' security didn't do much good either. It evokes centuries of history, including Sweden's King Charles XII seeking refuge at an Ottoman castle after a disastrous defeat against the Russians. Erdoğan surprised Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson with an undated letter from a Swedish envoy expressing the king's gratitude for financial help from the Ottomans and their mediation between Sweden and Russia. Learning from history and drawing lessons from it are essential if we are to avoid repeating past mistakes.
The reality is that natural gas is the new golden currency of political trade. And all this political news scenario is further evident in the article of Politico EU name:
“Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,” Erdoğan told CNN in an interview aired Friday, emphasizing his own “special relationship” with Russian President Putin is deepening.
“The West is not leading a very balanced approach — you need a balanced approach toward a country such as Russia,” Erdoğan said. “We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia like the West has done.
In a speech, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described Vladimir Putin as a "dear friend" | Alexander Nemenov/Editing by Germán & CoErdoğan: I have a ‘special relationship’ with Putin — and it’s only growing
‘Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,’ says Turkish president.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, MAY 19, 2023 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ♥ Vladimir Putin.
Turkey will defy pressure from the West and continue to strengthen political and economic ties with Moscow despite its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country’s president has insisted a week before he faces voters in a tense runoff election.
“Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,” Erdoğan told CNN in an interview aired Friday, emphasizing his own “special relationship” with Russian President Putin is deepening.
“The West is not leading a very balanced approach — you need a balanced approach toward a country such as Russia,” Erdoğan said. “We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia like the West has done.”
Despite the country’s membership of NATO, Ankara has stepped up its economic ties with Moscow since the start of the war, increasing imports of cheap Russian oil embargoed by other European countries.
While supplying Ukraine with humanitarian assistance and its domestically made Bayraktar attack drones, Turkey has positioned itself as a neutral party in the conflict, playing host to a series of talks between the two sides.
Erdoğan has also played up his role as a broker in the recently renewed Black Sea grain deal that has allowed supplies from Ukraine’s blockaded ports to reach the global market. In a speech Wednesday, he trumpeted the success of the agreement, describing Putin as a “dear friend.”
The Russia issue has come to the fore of Turkey’s presidential elections after Erdoğan’s liberal democratic challenger, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, last week accused Moscow of having a hand in conspiracies and deep fakes designed to turn voters against him.
As neither candidate received the majority required to win the election outright last Sunday, the two will face off once again next weekend. However, with Erdoğan having attracted more than 49 percent of the vote, Kılıçdaroğlu faces an uphill battle to turn the tables on the two-decade incumbent.
In his interview with CNN, Erdoğan hinted that he is unlikely to change his foreign policy stance if he wins a new term, saying that his opposition to Sweden’s NATO membership application would continue.
“We’re not ready for Sweden right now,” he claimed, “because a NATO country should have a strong stance when it comes to fighting terrorism.”
Ankara has repeatedly accused Stockholm of turning a blind eye to members of outlawed Kurdish groups living in exile in the country, demanding Stockholm extradite dozens of “terrorists” back to Turkey as part of an agreement on its accession to the transatlantic military alliance.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
News round-up, May 23, 2023
Words of the editor…
Natural gas is the new golden currency of political trade…
The sooner the world can wean off of the fossil fuel reliance, the more these geopolitical games will lessen. There will of course still be some tied to the critical minerals of batteries, solar panels, etc., but I don't think it will be nearly as impactful as oil and gas players have been on the global scale over the past many decades.
MATT CHESTER ENERGY ANALYST, CHESTER ENERGY AND POLICY Most Read…
Erdoğan: I have a ‘special relationship’ with Putin — and it’s only growing
‘Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,’ says Turkish president.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, MAY 19, 2023 Biden’s Billion-Dollar Oil Trade Faces a Big Test
Washington awaits bids to refill crude reserves with modified price proposal
WSJ BY DAVID UBERTI, UPDATED MAY 22, 2023 Saudi Arabia's energy minister warns speculators ahead of OPEC+ meeting
Short sellers are investors who make bets on the decline of oil prices. However, recent unexpected production cuts announced by OPEC+ caused a price rally, resulting in these investors having to close their positions at a loss.
REUTERS BY ANDREW MILLS AND MAHA EL DAHAN Opinion : Why global hunger is a national security threat
Our people are currently experiencing hunger. We must find a leader who can help provide the necessary resources to feed them.
WP BY JOSÉ ANDRÉS, MAY 22, 2023 Image:by Germán & CoWords of the editor…
Natural gas is the new golden currency of political trade…
The sooner the world can wean off of the fossil fuel reliance, the more these geopolitical games will lessen. There will of course still be some tied to the critical minerals of batteries, solar panels, etc., but I don't think it will be nearly as impactful as oil and gas players have been on the global scale over the past many decades.
Matt Chester Energy Analyst, Chester Energy and Policy"A Swedish Nightmare"
– Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
My article "A Swedish Nightmare," published on February 23, delves into the aftermath of a strategic political move by Russian President Vladimir Putin. This move involved gifting a natural gas hub to Turkey, which caused widespread debate on Turkey's role in preventing neutral Sweden from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). It was clear that Russia under Putin would go to great lengths to prevent Sweden from becoming a member of NATO.
What are the most significant factors that determine a country's geopolitical power, and how does money affect it?
The issue of natural gas and its impact on the global energy markets cannot be ignored. In the current political climate, the decisions made by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could significantly impact the energy industry. The location of a natural gas hub in Turkey, strategically positioned between Asia and Europe, has the potential to dramatically influence the economies of many countries in the region.
The controversy – especially in Scandinavian countries – surrounding Turkey's veto of Sweden's application for NATO membership has been analysed from various perspectives, including historical, political, gender-related, and even stupid and misogynistic accusations.
It's worth noting that even former Swedish foreign minister Ann Linde was blamed for being a woman, which supposedly made it difficult to negotiate with a state where men have held power for centuries.
Sweden's gift of a 1739 treaty to Turkey that has symbolic meaning for both nations' security didn't do much good either. It evokes centuries of history, including Sweden's King Charles XII seeking refuge at an Ottoman castle after a disastrous defeat against the Russians. Erdoğan surprised Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson with an undated letter from a Swedish envoy expressing the king's gratitude for financial help from the Ottomans and their mediation between Sweden and Russia. Learning from history and drawing lessons from it are essential if we are to avoid repeating past mistakes.
The reality is that natural gas is the new golden currency of political trade. And all this political news scenario is further evident in the article of Politico EU name:
“Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,” Erdoğan told CNN in an interview aired Friday, emphasizing his own “special relationship” with Russian President Putin is deepening.
“The West is not leading a very balanced approach — you need a balanced approach toward a country such as Russia,” Erdoğan said. “We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia like the West has done.
Most Read…
Erdoğan: I have a ‘special relationship’ with Putin — and it’s only growing
‘Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,’ says Turkish president.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, MAY 19, 2023 Biden’s Billion-Dollar Oil Trade Faces a Big Test
Washington awaits bids to refill crude reserves with modified price proposal
WSJ By David Uberti, Updated May 22, 2023Saudi Arabia's energy minister warns speculators ahead of OPEC+ meeting
Short sellers are investors who make bets on the decline of oil prices. However, recent unexpected production cuts announced by OPEC+ caused a price rally, resulting in these investors having to close their positions at a loss.
REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El DahanOpinion : Why global hunger is a national security threat
Our people are currently experiencing hunger. We must find a leader who can help provide the necessary resources to feed them.
WP By José Andrés, May 22, 2023 The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
In a speech, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described Vladimir Putin as a "dear friend" | Alexander Nemenov/Editing by Germán & CoErdoğan: I have a ‘special relationship’ with Putin — and it’s only growing
‘Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,’ says Turkish president.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, MAY 19, 2023 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ♥ Vladimir Putin.
Turkey will defy pressure from the West and continue to strengthen political and economic ties with Moscow despite its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country’s president has insisted a week before he faces voters in a tense runoff election.
“Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,” Erdoğan told CNN in an interview aired Friday, emphasizing his own “special relationship” with Russian President Putin is deepening.
“The West is not leading a very balanced approach — you need a balanced approach toward a country such as Russia,” Erdoğan said. “We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia like the West has done.”
Despite the country’s membership of NATO, Ankara has stepped up its economic ties with Moscow since the start of the war, increasing imports of cheap Russian oil embargoed by other European countries.
While supplying Ukraine with humanitarian assistance and its domestically made Bayraktar attack drones, Turkey has positioned itself as a neutral party in the conflict, playing host to a series of talks between the two sides.
Erdoğan has also played up his role as a broker in the recently renewed Black Sea grain deal that has allowed supplies from Ukraine’s blockaded ports to reach the global market. In a speech Wednesday, he trumpeted the success of the agreement, describing Putin as a “dear friend.”
The Russia issue has come to the fore of Turkey’s presidential elections after Erdoğan’s liberal democratic challenger, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, last week accused Moscow of having a hand in conspiracies and deep fakes designed to turn voters against him.
As neither candidate received the majority required to win the election outright last Sunday, the two will face off once again next weekend. However, with Erdoğan having attracted more than 49 percent of the vote, Kılıçdaroğlu faces an uphill battle to turn the tables on the two-decade incumbent.
In his interview with CNN, Erdoğan hinted that he is unlikely to change his foreign policy stance if he wins a new term, saying that his opposition to Sweden’s NATO membership application would continue.
“We’re not ready for Sweden right now,” he claimed, “because a NATO country should have a strong stance when it comes to fighting terrorism.”
Ankara has repeatedly accused Stockholm of turning a blind eye to members of outlawed Kurdish groups living in exile in the country, demanding Stockholm extradite dozens of “terrorists” back to Turkey as part of an agreement on its accession to the transatlantic military alliance.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image: Strategic Petroleum Reserve storage in Texas. The U.S.’s second effort to buy oil for the SPR is based on price differentials. PHOTO: BRANDON BELL/Editing by Germán & CoBiden’s Billion-Dollar Oil Trade Faces a Big Test
Washington awaits bids to refill crude reserves with modified price proposal
WSJ By David Uberti, Updated May 22, 2023The U.S. government’s attempt to refill the skyscraper-sized caverns that hold the country’s emergency oil reserves is coming with a crash course in energy markets: How to think more like a trader.
President Biden last year authorized an emergency sale of more than 180 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease gasoline prices that skyrocketed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Energy Department sold high, averaging roughly $95 a barrel.
Now the agency is learning that replenishing those stockpiles at the lower rate it wants—between $67 to $72—is more difficult, despite prices sliding near those levels at various points this year. On Monday, benchmark U.S. crude closed at $71.99 a barrel, within Washington’s window to buy.
Biden has deployed the SPR more aggressively than his predecessors, forcing Wall Street to pay attention to moves that could affect oil markets. As crude sputtered in recent months amid a cooling U.S. economy and a gusher of global supplies, some investors have looked to Washington’s proposed purchases as a potential support for prices.
The Energy Department’s first attempt at buying oil this year—and beginning a potential billion-dollar trade—failed. That prompted the agency to revamp its approach to bids in a way some analysts say is more reflective of how crude is traded. The tweaked pricing approach underscores the government’s steep learning curve on how oil companies weigh volatility and risk in a market that can unexpectedly turn on natural disasters, geopolitical tensions or production changes by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The four reserve sites near the Gulf Coast have about 358 million barrels of crude, down from about 593 million at the beginning of last year, according to the Energy Information Administration. Many analysts say the stockpile is more than enough to weather supply shocks, particularly since drilling output in fast-growing shale regions of Texas and New Mexico has propelled near-record domestic production.
Benchmark U.S. crude pricesSource: Argus MediaThe SPR periodically loans oil to refiners and receives additional supplies in return. But outright purchases have been rare in recent decades.
The Biden administration, which previously said it aims to buy 60 million barrels, has suggested it is in no hurry to refill the SPR without maximizing taxpayer returns. If successful, the new request for proposals could offer a blueprint for additional purchases.
After authorizing the largest release ever from the U.S. emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Biden administration is signaling it will soon try to refill the stockpile. WSJ explains how this strategy can lower gas prices, and why some are skeptical that it will work. Illustration: Ali Larkin
The Energy Department’s attempt to buy domestically produced sour crude earlier this year sought fixed-price proposals for up to 3 million barrels. But bids came in with higher prices than the agency expected or otherwise missed its specifications.
The fixed price meant companies would have to swallow the risk of the market sliding over a 13-day window as the agency evaluated proposals, said Ilia Bouchouev, managing partner at Pentathlon Investments. Producers likely bumped up their prices to account for the costs of hedging against the risk of oil prices swinging by several dollars a barrel.
“That’s a lot of risk to hold a fixed price for two weeks,” Bouchouev said. “Nobody trades [on a] flat price.”
Instead, the market moves based largely on price differentials between types of crude or locations where they are produced, bought and sold. Those spreads allow traders to account for costs such as transportation and give producers the opportunity to limit the threat of volatility by buying financial instruments such as futures or options contracts.
The Energy Department’s second try at buying up to 3 million barrels of sour crude, with proposals due May 31 and contracts expected to be awarded June 9, swaps its previous pricing approach for one based on differentials. That could help suppliers more accurately forecast costs and help limit potential losses.
Government officials asked companies to propose offers on sour-crude differentials. That figure factors in the average spread between West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, and an American sour crude gauge known as Mars in the three days after notice of the award.
Those benchmarks were separated by 98 cents as of Friday, according to price-reporting agency Argus Media, meaning companies’ financial risk in the event of market choppiness could be in cents, rather than dollars, per barrel.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve stockpilesSource: Energy Information AdministrationWhat impact do you think the federal government’s moves will have on oil markets? Join the conversation below.
“In theory, the same problem still remains because dealers have to hold this differential for two weeks while waiting for the decision,” said Bouchouev, a longtime trader. “However, the differential is significantly less volatile than the oil price.”
For now, the more pressing question for Biden’s potential oil trade may be whether prices stay within the Energy Department’s target range.
Wall Street was bullish on oil late last year, but many analysts more recently slashed forecasts as Western economies slowed, Russia continued pumping out crude and China’s appetite for energy failed to push prices higher.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy P. Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud and OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais shake hands at the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)/REUTERS/Editing by Germán & CoSaudi Arabia's energy minister warns speculators ahead of OPEC+ meeting
Short sellers are investors who make bets on the decline of oil prices. However, recent unexpected production cuts announced by OPEC+ caused a price rally, resulting in these investors having to close their positions at a loss.
REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El DahanDOHA, May 23 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday he would keep short sellers "ouching" and told them to "watch out", days before a planned OPEC+ meeting to decide on future oil policy.
"Speculators, like in any market they are there to stay, I keep advising them that they will be ouching, they did ouch in April, I don't have to show my cards I'm not a poker player... but I would just tell them watch out," he told the Qatar Economic Forum organised by Bloomberg.
Short sellers are investors that bet on oil prices falling, and hence when an unexpected move by OPEC+ to cut production causes a rally, they are forced to close their positions at a loss.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, and other OPEC+ producers announced surprise voluntary cuts in April that lifted prices after a slump driven by concerns that a banking crisis could impact demand.
Analysts at Standard Chartered bank said in a note this week that short speculative positions are now as bearish as they were at the start of the pandemic in 2020.
"We think the latest build-up in short positions significantly increases the probability of further production cuts when OPEC+ meets," the analysts said.
Brent prices were trading flat at $76.01 a barrel at 1020 GMT, more than $10 below their peak after OPEC+ announced the additional cuts in April.
OPEC+ members are due to meet on June 4 in Vienna to decide on their next course of action.
The April cuts were described as "inadvisable" by Washington, which had also been critical of the group's decision to cut production in October.
The minister said the alliance would continue to be proactive, preemptive and hedge against what may come in the future, regardless of any criticism.
"We should be brave enough to attend to the future without continuing the so-called 'kicking the can' policies, those policies that may allow us to fend the situation for this month, next month or the month after but with that we are losing sight of our intentions and our more important objectives," he said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, would continue to be a responsible market regulator, the prince added.
He again blamed the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) and its initial predictions for a 3 million barrel per day (bpd) fall in Russian production on the back of the Ukraine war for misleading the market.
"Look who did the most in trying to bring forecasts and data and projections that really created most of the volatility that we have had in 2022 and continue to do so?" Prince Abdulaziz said.
"There is an organisation called the IEA, I think they have proven that it really takes special talent to be consistently wrong."
The IEA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Migrant families from Nicaragua and Honduras walk along the U.S. southern border on Jan. 23, 2022, near Sasabe, Ariz. (Salwan Georges/The Washington Post)/Editing by Germán & CoOpinion : Why global hunger is a national security threat
Our people are currently experiencing hunger. We must find a leader who can help provide the necessary resources to feed them.
WP By José Andrés, May 22, 2023 *José Andrés is a chef and founder of the new Global Food Institute at George Washington University.
Threats to U.S. national security are not just measured in missiles, armies and terrorists. Political and economic turmoil, in countries that are important to America and its allies, can also be overwhelming.
That’s why fighting hunger and thirst is no longer just a challenge for aid workers. The scale of the global crisis is so great that hunger now represents a threat to our security, our borders and our projection of power.
Don’t take a chef’s word for it. Over the past decade or so, the U.S. intelligence community assessed the likely impact of global food and water insecurity.
U.S. security agencies predicted a world, right around now, when water shortages and floods would “risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives.”
They forecast that in countries of strategic importance to us, “declining food security will almost certainly contribute to social disruptions and political instability.”
José Andrés: What the pandemic can teach us about treating hunger
I have argued for a national security adviser for food and a secretary of food. I have proposed the creation of a National Food Agency to center food policy on the needs of American citizens.
But I have not succeeded in convincing my friends on either side of the aisle on Capitol Hill or at the White House that food must stop being a policy afterthought.
The time has come for us all to prioritize food in our public policy — at home and internationally.
Consider one of the most divisive factors in politics today, both in the United States and in Europe: immigration from the Global South.
What is driving so many families to risk their lives on perilous journeys through the jungle, across rivers or on the open seas?
Violence, corruption and lack of opportunity are nothing new in the Western Hemisphere. Though they are clearly factors in the surge to the U.S. southern border, there is something new about what is moving so many people today.
That is food. To be precise: malnutrition, hunger and food price inflation.
Three years ago, the majority of migrants came from the Northern Triangle countries: Honduras, Guatemala and El Savador. Now, most migrants at our border come from other countries, including Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua and Cuba.
What ties these countries together?
Cuba is suffering extraordinary food shortages and price hikes. About three-quarters of Venezuelans live on less than $1.90 a day, which, economists say, is nowhere near enough to feed one person, never mind a family. In some regions of Nicaragua, almost 1 in 4 children under the age of 5 has chronic malnutrition.
I could tell you the same stories about the Northern Triangle countries a few years ago. Or I could tell you about the Honduran family we fed as they sheltered under a bridge in McAllen, Tex. They recognized the logo of World Central Kitchen, the nonprofit I founded, because we had fed them in Honduras the year before, when back-to-back hurricanes wiped out their farm.
As severe drought devastates crops across South America, the World Food Program recently warned that “the whole continent is on the move.”
We cannot build a wall high enough to stop the army of mothers with hungry children in their arms.
Our problem is not that we lack the resources or know-how to relieve these unbearable pressures. Our problem is that we lack focus.
José Andrés: Our people are hungry. We need a leader who will feed them.
The United States spends around $25 billion a year on Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Texas alone wants to spend $4 billion on the border.
That’s what the United States spends on feeding the whole planet through the World Food Program in a normal year. It’s four times what the administration proposes to spend on stabilizing the democracies and economies of Central America to help stop migration.
Food is not just an existential challenge beyond our borders. In the United States, about half of the adult population either has diabetes or is prediabetic. Two in five adults are obese. Last year, supplies of baby formula collapsed because of contamination at one factory, and the shortages endure.
The Government Accountability Office recently found that the federal government leads 200 different efforts across 21 different agencies to improve our diets. Yet we still cannot match our farming subsidies to our nutritional needs.
Everybody and nobody is in charge of food.
Food can be the solution to multiple crises: from our health to our climate, from immigration to global security. But only if we think differently and prioritize our food.
Our global food systems are broken, and we urgently need structural change. That starts right here in Washington.
News round-up, May 22, 2023
Has the energy sector enough coverage?
“It's imperative to maintain a broader perspective when it comes to the energy sector. Although there may be adequate coverage, we must be mindful of our natural inclination towards self-centeredness and disregard for the bigger picture. Constructing an objective viewpoint for ourselves and those around us is essential, and maintaining a global outlook is crucial.
Most Read…
The U.S. Needs Minerals for Electric Cars. Everyone Else Wants Them Too.
The United States is entering an array of agreements to secure the critical minerals necessary for the energy transition, but it’s not clear which of the arrangements can succeed.
NYT By Ana Swanson, Reporting from Washington, May 21, 2023
Rice Gets Reimagined, From the Mississippi to the Mekong
The challenges rice farmers face in global warming are dire. The survival of billions hinges on successful rice harvests, making it imperative that we address the difficulties of climate change. The unpredictable weather patterns, ranging from droughts to floods, coupled with the salinity of the sea, are detrimental to the crop's growth. Plus, warmer nights contribute to diminishing yields. It is time we take action and aid our rice farmers in overcoming these obstacles.
NYT By Somini Sengupta, reporting from Arkansas and Bangladesh, and Tran Le Thuy, from Vietnam. Thanh Nguyen photographed in Vietnam and Rory Doyle in Arkansas, May 22 05 23.EU hits Meta with record €1.2B privacy fine
Tech giant transferred Europeans’ data to the US unlawfully, Irish privacy regulator said.
POLITICO EU BY CLOTHILDE GOUJARD AND MARK SCOTT, MAY 22, 2023Column: Spot LNG price drops to level that's not too hot, not too cold
The cost of LNG shipped to North Asia fell to $9.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ending May 19, marking its first dip beneath the $10 threshold in two years.
REUTERS By Clyde Russell/Editing by Germán & CoEU Parliament delays renewable energy vote after late backlash
The EU needs help to pass a law requiring 42.5% of its energy from renewables by 2030. Some countries, including France, have yet to support the proposal.
REUTERS By Kate Abnett/EDITING BY GERMÁN & COImage: The Chaerhan Salt Lake in Golmud, China, where brine is processed to extract lithium and other minerals.Credit...Qilai Shen for The New York Times/Editing by Germán & CoHas the energy sector enough coverage?
“It's imperative to maintain a broader perspective when it comes to the energy sector. Although there may be adequate coverage, we must be mindful of our natural inclination towards self-centeredness and disregard for the bigger picture. Constructing an objective viewpoint for ourselves and those around us is essential, and maintaining a global outlook is crucial.
Most Read…
The U.S. Needs Minerals for Electric Cars. Everyone Else Wants Them Too.
The United States is entering an array of agreements to secure the critical minerals necessary for the energy transition, but it’s not clear which of the arrangements can succeed.
NYT By Ana Swanson, Reporting from Washington, May 21, 2023Rice Gets Reimagined, From the Mississippi to the Mekong
The challenges rice farmers face in global warming are dire. The survival of billions hinges on successful rice harvests, making it imperative that we address the difficulties of climate change. The unpredictable weather patterns, ranging from droughts to floods, coupled with the salinity of the sea, are detrimental to the crop's growth. Plus, warmer nights contribute to diminishing yields. It is time we take action and aid our rice farmers in overcoming these obstacles.
NYT By Somini Sengupta, reporting from Arkansas and Bangladesh, and Tran Le Thuy, from Vietnam. Thanh Nguyen photographed in Vietnam and Rory Doyle in Arkansas, May 22 05 23.EU hits Meta with record €1.2B privacy fine
Tech giant transferred Europeans’ data to the US unlawfully, Irish privacy regulator said.
POLITICO EU BY CLOTHILDE GOUJARD AND MARK SCOTT, MAY 22, 2023Column: Spot LNG price drops to level that's not too hot, not too cold
The cost of LNG shipped to North Asia fell to $9.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ending May 19, marking its first dip beneath the $10 threshold in two years.
REUTERS By Clyde Russell/Editing by Germán & CoEU Parliament delays renewable energy vote after late backlash
The EU needs help to pass a law requiring 42.5% of its energy from renewables by 2030. Some countries, including France, have yet to support the proposal.
REUTERS By Kate Abnett/EDITING BY GERMÁN & COThe AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
The Chaerhan Salt Lake in Golmud, China, where brine is processed to extract lithium and other minerals.Credit...Qilai Shen for The New York Times/Editing by Germán & CoThe U.S. Needs Minerals for Electric Cars. Everyone Else Wants Them Too.
The United States is entering an array of agreements to secure the critical minerals necessary for the energy transition, but it’s not clear which of the arrangements can succeed.
NYT By Ana Swanson, Reporting from Washington, May 21, 2023For decades, a group of the world’s biggest oil producers has held huge sway over the American economy and the popularity of U.S. presidents through its control of the global oil supply, with decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries determining what U.S. consumers pay at the pump.
As the world shifts to cleaner sources of energy, control over the materials needed to power that transition is still up for grabs.
China currently dominates global processing of the critical minerals that are now in high demand to make batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. In an attempt to gain more power over that supply chain, U.S. officials have begun negotiating a series of agreements with other countries to expand America’s access to important minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite.
But it remains unclear which of these partnerships will succeed, or if they will be able to generate anything close to the supply of minerals the United States is projected to need for a wide array of products, including electric cars and batteries for storing solar power.
Leaders of Japan, Europe and other advanced nations, who are meeting in Hiroshima, agree that the world’s reliance on China for more than 80 percent of processing of minerals leaves their nations vulnerable to political pressure from Beijing, which has a history of weaponizing supply chains in times of conflict.
On Saturday, the leaders of the Group of 7 countries reaffirmed the need to manage the risks caused by vulnerable mineral supply chains and build more resilient sources. The United States and Australia announced a partnership to share information and coordinate standards and investment to create more responsible and sustainable supply chains.
“This is a huge step, from our perspective — a huge step forward in our fight against the climate crisis,” President Biden said Saturday as he signed the agreement with Australia.
But figuring out how to access all of the minerals the United States will need will still be a challenge. Many mineral-rich nations have poor environmental and labor standards. And although speeches at the G7 emphasized alliances and partnerships, rich countries are still essentially competing for scarce resources.
Japan has signed a critical minerals deal with the United States, and Europe is in the midst of negotiating one. But like the United States, those regions have substantially greater demand for critical minerals to feed their own factories than supply to spare.
Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States, said in an interview that the allied countries had an important partnership in the industry, but that they were also, to some extent, commercial competitors. “It is a partnership, but it’s a partnership with certain levels of tension,” she said.
“It’s a complicated economic geopolitical moment,” Ms. Hillman added. “And we are all committed to getting to the same place and we’re going to work together to do it, but we’re going to work together to do it in a way that’s also good for our businesses.”
“We have to create a market for the products that are produced and created in a way that is consistent with our values,” she said.
The State Department has been pushing forward with a “minerals security partnership,” with 13 governments trying to promote public and private investment in their critical mineral supply chains. And European officials have been advocating a “buyers’ club” for critical minerals with the G7 countries, which could establish certain common labor and environmental standards for suppliers.
Indonesia, which is the world’s biggest nickel producer, has floated the idea of joining with other resource-rich countries to make an OPEC-style producers cartel, an arrangement that would try to shift the power to mineral suppliers.
Indonesia has also approached the United States in recent months seeking a deal similar to that of Japan and the European Union. Biden administration officials are weighing whether to give Indonesia some kind of preferential access, either through an independent deal or as part of a trade framework the United States is negotiating in the Indo-Pacific.
But some U.S. officials have warned that Indonesia’s lagging environmental and labor standards could allow materials into the United States that undercut the country’s nascent mines, as well as its values. Such a deal is also likely to trigger stiff opposition in Congress, where some lawmakers criticized the Biden administration’s deal with Japan.
Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, hinted at these trade-offs in a speech last month, saying that carrying out negotiations with critical mineral-producing states would be necessary, but would raise “hard questions” about labor practices in those countries and America’s broader environmental goals.
Whether America’s new agreements would take the shape of a critical minerals club, a fuller negotiation or something else was unclear, Mr. Sullivan said: “We are now in the thick of trying to figure that out.”
Cullen Hendrix, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the Biden administration’s strategy to build more secure international supply chains for minerals outside of China had so far been “a bit incoherent and not necessarily sufficient to achieve that goal.”
The demand for minerals in the United States has been spurred in large part by President Biden’s climate law, which provided tax incentives for investments in the electric vehicle supply chain, particularly in the final assembly of batteries. But Mr. Hendrix said the law appeared to be having more limited success in rapidly increasing the number of domestic mines that would supply those new factories.
“The United States is not going to be able to go this alone,” he said.
Biden officials agree that obtaining a secure supply of the minerals needed to power electric vehicle batteries is one of their most pressing challenges. U.S. officials say that the global supply of lithium alone needs to increase by 42 times by 2050 to meet the rising demand for electric vehicles.
Ford’s electric pickup truck on the production line of the company’s plant in Dearborn, Mich.Credit...Brittany Greeson for The New York Times
While innovations in batteries could reduce the need for certain minerals, for now, the world is facing dramatic long-term shortages by any estimate. And many officials say Europe’s reliance on Russian energy following the invasion of Ukraine has helped to illustrate the danger of foreign dependencies.
The global demand for these materials is triggering a wave of resource nationalism that could intensify. Outside of the United States, the European Union, Canada and other governments have also introduced subsidy programs to better compete for new mines and battery factories.
Indonesia has progressively stepped up restrictions on exporting raw nickel ore, requiring it to first be processed in the country. Chile, a major producer of lithium, nationalized its lithium industry in a bid to better control how the resources are developed and deployed, as have Bolivia and Mexico.
And Chinese companies are still investing heavily in acquiring mines and refinery capacity globally.
For now, the Biden administration has appeared wary of cutting deals with countries with more mixed labor and environmental records. Officials are exploring changes needed to develop U.S. capacity, like faster permitting processes for mines, as well as closer partnerships with mineral-rich allies, like Canada, Australia and Chile.
On Saturday, the White House said it planned to ask Congress to add Australia to a list of countries where the Pentagon can fund critical mineral projects, criteria that currently only applies to Canada.
Todd Malan, the chief external affairs officer at Talon Metals, which has proposed a nickel mine in Minnesota to supply Tesla’s North American production, said that adding a top ally like Australia, which has high standards of production regarding environment, labor rights and Indigenous participation, to that list was a “smart move.”
But Mr. Malan said that expanding the list of countries that would be eligible for benefits under the administration’s new climate law beyond countries with similar labor and environmental standards could undermine efforts to develop a stronger supply chain in the United States.
“If you start opening the door to Indonesia and the Philippines or elsewhere where you don’t have the common standards, we would view that as outside the spirit of what Congress was trying to do in incentivizing a domestic and friends supply chain for batteries,” he said.
However, some U.S. officials argue that the supply of critical minerals in wealthy countries with high labor and environmental standards will be insufficient to meet demand, and that failing to strike new agreements with resource-rich countries in Africa and Asia could leave the United States highly vulnerable.
While the Biden administration is looking to streamline the permitting process in the United States for new mines, getting approval for such projects can still take years, if not decades. Auto companies, which are major U.S. employers, have also been warning of projected shortfalls in battery materials and arguing for arrangements that would give them more flexibility and lower prices.
The G7 nations, together with the countries with which the United States has free trade agreements, produce 30 percent of the world’s lithium chemicals and about 20 percent of its refined cobalt and nickel, but only 1 percent of its natural flake graphite, according to estimates by Adam Megginson, a price analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Jennifer Harris, a former Biden White House official who worked on critical mineral strategy, argued that the country should move more quickly to develop and permit domestic mines, but that the United States also needs a new framework for multinational negotiations that include countries that are major mineral exporters.
The government could also set up a program to stockpile minerals like lithium when prices swing low, which would give miners more assurance they will find destinations for their products, she said.
“There’s so much that needs doing that this is very much a ‘both/and’ world,” she said. “The challenge is that we need to responsibly pull up a whole lot more rocks out of the ground yesterday.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Rice Gets Reimagined, From the Mississippi to the Mekong
The challenges rice farmers face in global warming are dire. The survival of billions hinges on successful rice harvests, making it imperative that we address the difficulties of climate change. The unpredictable weather patterns, ranging from droughts to floods, coupled with the salinity of the sea, are detrimental to the crop's growth. Plus, warmer nights contribute to diminishing yields. It is time we take action and aid our rice farmers in overcoming these obstacles.
NYT By Somini Sengupta, reporting from Arkansas and Bangladesh, and Tran Le Thuy, from Vietnam. Thanh Nguyen photographed in Vietnam and Rory Doyle in Arkansas, May 22 05 23.Rice is in trouble as the Earth heats up, threatening the food and livelihood of billions of people. Sometimes there’s not enough rain when seedlings need water, or too much when the plants need to keep their heads above water. As the sea intrudes, salt ruins the crop. As nights warm, yields go down.
These hazards are forcing the world to find new ways to grow one of its most important crops. Rice farmers are shifting their planting calendars. Plant breeders are working on seeds to withstand high temperatures or salty soils. Hardy heirloom varieties are being resurrected.
And where water is running low, as it is in so many parts of the world, farmers are letting their fields dry out on purpose, a strategy that also reduces methane, a potent greenhouse gas that rises from paddy fields.
The climate crisis is particularly distressing for small farmers with little land, which is the case for hundreds of millions of farmers in Asia. “They have to adapt,” said Pham Tan Dao, the irrigation chief for Soc Trang, a coastal province in Vietnam, one of the biggest rice-producing countries in the world. “Otherwise they can’t live.”
In China, a study found that extreme rainfall had reduced rice yields over the past 20 years. India limited rice exports out of concern for having enough to feed its own people. In Pakistan, heat and floods destroyed harvests, while in California, a long drought led many farmers to fallow their fields.
Worldwide, rice production is projected to shrink this year, largely because of extreme weather.
Today, Vietnam is preparing to take nearly 250,000 acres of land in the Mekong Delta, its rice bowl, out of production. Climate change is partly to blame, but also dams upstream on the Mekong River that choke the flow of freshwater. Some years, when the rains are paltry, rice farmers don’t even plant a third rice crop, as they had before, or they switch to shrimp, which is costly and can degrade the land further.
The challenges now are different from those 50 years ago. Then, the world needed to produce much more rice to stave off famine. High-yielding hybrid seeds, grown with chemical fertilizers, helped. In the Mekong Delta, farmers went on to produce as many as three harvests a year, feeding millions at home and abroad.
Today, that very system of intensive production has created new problems worldwide. It has depleted aquifers, driven up fertilizer use, reduced the diversity of rice breeds that are planted, and polluted the air with the smoke of burning rice stubble. On top of that, there’s climate change: It has upended the rhythm of sunshine and rain that rice depends on.
Perhaps most worrying, because rice is eaten every day by some of the world’s poorest, elevated carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere deplete nutrients from each grain.
Rice faces another climate problem. It accounts for an estimated 8 percent of global methane emissions. That’s a fraction of the emissions from coal, oil and gas, which together account for 35 percent of methane emissions. But fossil fuels can be replaced by other energy sources. Rice, not so much. Rice is the staple grain for an estimated three billion people. It is biryani and pho, jollof and jambalaya — a source of tradition, and sustenance.
“We are in a fundamentally different moment,” said Lewis H. Ziska, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University. “It’s a question of producing more with less. How do you do that in a way that’s sustainable? How do you do that in a climate that’s changing?”
A risky balance: Rice, or shrimp?
In 1975, facing famine after war, Vietnam resolved to grow more rice.
It succeeded spectacularly, eventually becoming the world’s third-largest rice exporter after India and Thailand. The green patchwork of the Mekong Delta became its most prized rice region.
At the same time, though, the Mekong River was reshaped by human hands.
Starting in southeastern China, the river meanders through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Cambodia, interrupted by many dams. Today, by the time it reaches Vietnam, there is little freshwater left to flush out seawater seeping inland. Rising sea levels bring in more seawater. Irrigation canals turn salty. The problem is only going to get worse as temperatures rise.
“We now accept that fast-rising salty water is normal,” said Mr. Pham, the irrigation chief. “We have to prepare to deal with it.” Where saltwater used to intrude 30 kilometers or so (about 19 miles) during the dry season, he said, it can now reach 70 kilometers inland.
Climate change brings other risks. You can no longer count on the monsoon season to start in May, as before. And so in dry years, farmers now rush to sow rice 10 to 30 days earlier than usual, researchers have found. In coastal areas, many rotate between rice and shrimp, which like a bit of saltwater.
But this requires reining in greed, said Dang Thanh Sang, 60, a lifelong rice farmer in Soc Trang. Shrimp bring in high profits, but also high risks. Disease sets in easily. The land becomes barren. He has seen it happen to other farmers.
So, on his seven acres, Mr. Dang plants rice when there’s freshwater in the canals, and shrimp when seawater seeps in. Rice cleans the water. Shrimp nourishes the soil. “It’s not a lot of money like growing only shrimp,” he said. “But it’s safer.”
Elsewhere, farmers will have to shift their calendars for rice and other staple grains, researchers concluded in a recent paper. Scientists are already trying to help them.
Secrets of ancient rice
The cabinet of wonders in Argelia Lorence’s laboratory is filled with seeds of rice — 310 different kinds of rice.Many are ancient, rarely grown now. But they hold genetic superpowers that Dr. Lorence, a plant biochemist at Arkansas State University, is trying to find, particularly those that enable rice plants to survive hot nights, one of the most acute hazards of climate change. She has found two such genes so far. They can be used to breed new hybrid varieties.
“I am convinced,” she said, “that decades from now, farmers are going to need very different kinds of seeds.”
Dr. Lorence is among an army of rice breeders developing new varieties for a hotter planet. Multinational seed companies are heavily invested. RiceTec, from which most rice growers in the southeastern United States buy seeds, backs Dr. Lorence’s research.
She is focused on divining valuable genetic traits hidden in the many varieties.Critics say hybrid seeds and the chemical fertilizers they need make farmers heavily dependent on the companies’ products, and because they promise high yields, effectively wipe out heirloom varieties that can be more resilient to climate hazards.
The new frontier of rice research involves Crispr, a gene-editing technology that U.S. scientists are using to create a seed that produces virtually no methane. (Genetically modified rice remains controversial, and only a handful of countries allow its cultivation.)
In Bangladesh, researchers have produced new varieties for the climate pressures that farmers are dealing with already. Some can grow when they’re submerged in floodwaters for a few days.
Others can grow in soils that have turned salty. In the future, researchers say, the country will need new rice varieties that can grow with less fertilizer, which is now heavily subsidized by the state. Or that must tolerate even higher salinity levels.
No matter what happens with the climate, said Khandakar M. Iftekharuddaula, chief scientific officer at the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Bangladesh will need to produce more. Rice is eaten at every meal. “Rice security is synonymous with food security,” he said.
Less watery rice paddies?
Rice is central to the story of the United States. It enriched the coastal states of the American South, all with the labor of enslaved Africans who brought with them generations of rice-growing knowledge.
Today, the country’s dominant rice-growing area is spread across the hard clay soil near where the Mississippi River meets one of its tributaries, the Arkansas River. It looks nothing like the Mekong Delta. The fields here are laser-leveled flat as pancakes. Work is done by machine. Farms are vast, sometimes more than 20,000 acres.
What they share are the hazards of climate change. Nights are hotter. Rains are erratic. And there’s the problem created by the very success of so much intensive rice farming: Groundwater is running dangerously low.
Enter Benjamin Runkle, an engineering professor from the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. Instead of keeping rice fields flooded at all times, as growers have always done, Dr. Runkle suggested that Arkansas farmers let the fields dry out a bit, then let in the water again, then repeat. Oh, and would they let him measure the methane coming off their fields?
Mark Isbell, a second-generation rice farmer, signed up.
New irrigation ideas can save water and cut methane emissions.
Dr. Runkle: “A breathalyzer test of the land.”
On the edge of Mr. Isbell’s field, Dr. Runkle erected a tall white contraption that an egret might mistake for a cousin. The device measured the gases produced by bacteria stewing in the flooded fields. “It’s like taking a breathalyzer test of the land,” Dr. Runkle said.
His experiment, carried out over seven years, concluded that by not flooding the fields continuously, farmers can reduce rice methane emissions by more than 60 percent.
Other farmers have taken to planting rice in rows, like corn, and leaving furrows in between for the water to flow. That, too, reduces water use and, according to research in China, where it’s been common for some time, cuts methane emissions.
The most important finding, from Mr. Isbell’s vantage point: It reduces his energy bills to pump water. “There are upsides to it beyond the climate benefits,” he said.
By cutting his methane emissions, Mr. Isbell was also able to pick up some cash by selling “carbon credits,” which is when polluting businesses pay someone else to make emissions cuts.
When neighbors asked him how that went, he told them he could buy them a drink and explain. “But it will have to be one drink,” he said. He made very little money from it.
However, there will be more upsides soon. For farmers who can demonstrate emissions reductions, the Biden administration is offering federal funds for what it calls “climate smart” projects. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack came to Mr. Isbell’s farm last fall to promote the program. Mr. Isbell reckons the incentives will persuade other rice growers to adopt alternate wetting and drying.
“We kind of look over the hill and see what’s coming for the future, and learn now,” said his father, Chris Isbell.
It's the largest fine imposed under the bloc's flagship General Data Protection Regulation | John Edelson/EAFP/Editing by Germán & CoEU hits Meta with record €1.2B privacy fine
Tech giant transferred Europeans’ data to the US unlawfully, Irish privacy regulator said.
POLITICO EU BY CLOTHILDE GOUJARD AND MARK SCOTT, MAY 22, 2023U.S tech giant Meta has been hit with a record €1.2 billion fine for not complying with the EU’s privacy rulebook.
The Irish Data Protection Commission announced on Monday that Meta violated the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) when it shuttled troves of personal data of European Facebook users to the United States without sufficiently protecting them from Washington's data surveillance practices.
It's the largest fine imposed under the bloc's flagship General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) privacy law and it comes on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the law's enforcement on May 25.
Amazon was previously fined €746 million by Luxembourg and the Irish regulator also imposed four fines against Meta's platforms Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp ranging between €405 million and €225 million in the past two years.
Ywatchdog said that Meta's use of a legal instrument known as standard contractual clauses (SCCs) to move data to the U.S. "did not address the risks to the fundamental rights and freedoms" of Facebook's European users raised by a landmark ruling from the EU's top court.
The European Court of Justice in 2020 struck down an EU-U.S. data flows agreement known as the Privacy Shield over fears of U.S. intelligence services' surveillance practices. In the same judgment, the top EU court also tightened requirements to use SCCs, another legal tool widely used by companies to transfer personal data to the U.S.
Meta — as well as other international companies — kept relying on the legal instrument as European and U.S. officials struggled to put together a new data flows arrangement and the U.S. tech giant lacked other legal mechanisms to transfer its personal data.
The EU and U.S. are finalizing a new data flow deal that could come as early as July and as late as October. Meta has until October 12 to stop relying on SCCs for their transfers.
The U.S. tech giant previously warned that if it would be forced to stop using SCCs without a proper alternative data flow agreement in place, it could shut down services like Facebook and Instagram in Europe.
Meta also has until November 12 to delete or move back to the EU the personal data of European Facebook users transferred and stored in the U.S. since 2020 and until a new EU-U.S. deal is reached.
“This decision is flawed, unjustified and sets a dangerous precedent for the countless other companies transferring data between the EU and U.S.," Meta's President of Global Affairs Nick Clegg and Chief Legal Officer Jennifer Newstead said in a statement on Monday.
Clegg and Newstead said the company will appeal the decision and seek a stay with the courts to pause the implementation deadlines. "There is no immediate disruption to Facebook because the decision includes implementation periods that run until later this year," they added.
Max Schrems, the privacy activist behind the original 2013 complaint supporting the case, said: "We are happy to see this decision after ten years of litigation ... Unless U.S. surveillance laws get fixed, Meta will have to fundamentally restructure its systems."
The Irish Data Protection Commission said it disagreed with the fine and measure that it was imposing on Meta but had been forced by the pan-European network of national regulators, the European Data Protection Board (EDPB), after Dublin's initial decision was challenged by four of its peer regulators in Europe.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
A liquified natural gas (LNG) tanker leaves the dock after discharge at PetroChina's receiving terminal in Dalian, Liaoning province, China July 16, 2018. REUTERS/Chen Aizhu/File Photo/Editing by Germán & CoColumn: Spot LNG price drops to level that's not too hot, not too cold
The cost of LNG shipped to North Asia fell to $9.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ending May 19, marking its first dip beneath the $10 threshold in two years.
REUTERS By Clyde Russell/Editing by Germán & CoLAUNCESTON, Australia, May 22 (Reuters) - The spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is in the sweet spot of being low enough to boost buying interest, but not so low that it sparks a surge in demand.
The price for LNG delivered to north Asia dropped to $9.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week to May 19, its first foray below the $10 level in two years.
The price has slid 74% since its northern winter peak of $38 per mmBtu on Dec. 16, and is down 86% from the record high of $70.50, hit in August last year as Europe sucked up all available cargoes amid fears of the total loss of Russian pipeline supplies.
The decline in spot LNG prices has seen demand in key Asian importers hold steady, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
Asia is expected to import 20.81 million tonnes of the super-chilled fuel in May, the same result as was recorded in April and down slightly from March's 22.16 million.
While a steady-as-she-goes outcome may seem somewhat disappointing at first glance, especially given the price decline, it's actually stronger than appearances given that LNG is in the shoulder period of seasonally weaker demand between the peaks of the northern winter and summer.
The seasonal softness can be seen in Japan's May imports dropping to an expected 4.24 million tonnes from 5.0 million in April and 5.55 million in March.
Japan reclaimed the title of the world's biggest LNG importer from China last year, as Chinese utilities largely opted out of the spot market when prices surged following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Chinese buyers have returned to the market, but their purchases have been modest so far in 2023, with an estimated 5.23 million tonnes slated to arrive in May, little changed from April's 5.33 million and 5.46 million in March.
It's believed that Chinese utilities require a spot price below $10 per mmBtu in order for LNG to be competitive in the domestic market, so the decline below this level last week may act to spur some new buying interest in coming weeks.
The price-sensitive LNG buyers in South Asia have also been returning to the spot market in recent months, with India, the fourth-largest importer in Asia, expected to land 1.91 million tonnes in May.
This is slightly down from 1.98 million in April, but up from March's 1.84 million and also well above the 1.46 million in January and the 1.32 million in December, when spot prices were still elevated.
However, it's likely that the decline in spot prices will only boost demand from June onwards, and there are some early signs that this is already happening.
LNG imports by Asia, Europe vs spot price:JUNE PICK-UP
Preliminary June imports for Asia are assessed by Kpler at 19.36 million tonnes, almost matching the May figure, which is a robust signal given the certainty that more cargoes will be assessed in coming weeks.
The lower spot price in Asia is also working to boost buying interest in Europe, with May imports expected at 12.28 million tonnes, up a smidgeon from April's 12.27 million.
Spot LNG prices in Asia are at competitive levels with the main benchmarks in Europe, with the benchmark British day-ahead contract ending at 66.75 pence per therm on May 19, equivalent to $8.18 per mmBtu.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract ended last week at 30.30 euros per megawatt hour, equivalent to about $9.62 mmBtu.
The question for the market is at what point the spot price for LNG in Asia falls far enough to provide a significant boost to buying, especially given the summer demand peak is coming.
The forward curve for LNG futures traded in New York suggests that point is soon, with the curve in contango and the July contract ending at $10.35 per mmBtu on May 19, while August was higher still at $11.11.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters
European Union flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, March 1, 2023.REUTERS/Johanna GeronEU Parliament delays renewable energy vote after late backlash
The EU needs help to pass a law requiring 42.5% of its energy from renewables by 2030. Some countries, including France, have yet to support the proposal.
REUTERS By Kate Abnett/EDITING BY GERMÁN & COBRUSSELS, May 22 (Reuters) - The European Parliament has delayed a planned vote to approve new EU renewable energy targets, after France and other countries lodged last-minute opposition to the law last week, according to an internal email seen by Reuters.
The vote in the Parliament's energy committee had been due to take place on Tuesday. The email said the vote was postponed until June, without specifying a date.
The European Union is attempting to finalise a key pillar of its climate agenda - a law containing a binding goal for the EU to get 42.5% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.
But the bill has run into late resistance. EU country diplomats had been due to signal their approval for the law last week, but the discussion was shelved after France and other countries said they would not support it.
Parliament had been due to hold a first vote on Tuesday, followed by a final vote in July. A delay risks shelving the policy's approval until September, after the EU assembly's summer recess.
The EU Parliament and EU countries' approval of the law was supposed to be a formality, after negotiators from both sides agreed what was supposed to be a final deal earlier this year.
But France was unhappy with the final result. Paris wants more recognition in the law of low-carbon nuclear energy, and says the rules discriminate against hydrogen produced from nuclear power, by not allowing countries to count this low-carbon fuel towards renewable fuel targets for industry.
Other countries, including Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, were also unhappy with the rules, for a range of reasons including that some capitals view the targets as overly ambitious.
A spokesperson for Sweden, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, said talks were underway to resolve the dispute.
But other countries are impatient, after what some diplomats described as a "surprise" hold-up of one of the bloc's main tools to fight climate change.
"The level of frustration is extremely high indeed. France is always asking for more," one EU diplomat said.
Former coal-fired power plant hosts new battery project
“SSE Renewables is the latest example of an energy company looking to redevelop coal plants and mines into net-zero projects.
Image:An aerial view of Ferrybridge, West Yorkshire, UK, where SSE Renewables plans to build a battery at the site of its former coal plant. Credit: LD Media UK./Editing by Germán & Co
An aerial view of Ferrybridge, West Yorkshire, UK, where SSE Renewables plans to build a battery at the site of its former coal plant. Credit: LD Media UK./Editing by Germán & CoSSE Renewables is the latest example of an energy company looking to redevelop coal plants and mines into net-zero projects.
energymonitor.ai By Florence JonesSSE Renewables has announced plans to develop a 150MW battery storage facility on the site of a former coal-fired power plant in West Yorkshire in the north of the UK. The conversion of former coal plants into net-zero projects has become a growing area of interest as renewable developers can benefit from pre-existing infrastructure and workforces.
In this case, SSE Renewables decommissioned the coal plant in question (Ferrybridge) in 2016. Construction on the battery plant is due to begin later this month with Ferrybridge’s reconnection to the grid confirmed for June 2024. Sungrow Power Supply will supply battery technology alongside construction partner OCU services. Lewis Li, president of Sungrow Europe, said that it will provide its “liquid cooled energy storage system, the PowerTitan, to this landmark project”.
The conversion of coal power plants to net zero
In the US earlier this year, $160m (£127.63m) in initial funding from the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) was awarded to TerraPower and X-Energy to build two advanced nuclear reactors that will be operational before 2028. Both companies have said they are looking at coal plant-to-nuclear conversion.
Funding is booming for spacetech companies that are developing new technologies. Masdar City in the United Arab Emirates is offering these start-ups an ecosystem where they can grow and thrive The Emirates Mars Mission, also known as the Hope Probe,…
Additionally, in the UK, a number of disused coal mines have been recommissioned to provide heating to nearby homes and businesses. Water can be heated in the pre-existing mine networks, which can offer a sustainable alternative to gas boilers. The UK Government has set a target of no new gas boilers in new-build housing and businesses by 2025.
Drax, now the largest renewables developer in the UK, announced last month that its power plant in North Yorkshire will no longer use coal. Instead “sustainable biomass” will be used to power the plant. The company is also looking to install carbon capture and storage, according to Will Gardiner, Drax’s CEO.
“The global momentum for converting coal-fired power stations to biomass is growing as more countries work to reduce their emissions by moving away from fossil fuels to renewables while maintaining their energy security. In recent months, new projects have been announced in countries from Japan to Hungary,” Gardiner added.
According to Richard Cave-Bigley, director of solar and battery at SSE renewables, the new battery storage project “located next to the former Ferrybridge coal power station” clearly demonstrates “the transition to net zero while supporting new green jobs”. SSE renewables will develop the site as part of its $31bn Net Zero Acceleration Programme. SSE Renewables has almost 2GW of battery and solar projects currently in development or under construction.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
War and love kisses…
Shalom,
My dear friends, and have a pleased Shabbat to all of you. I hope you are doing well and enjoying this beautiful day with your loved ones. I wish you all the best in love and health, as those are the most important things in life. It would be interesting to share the history of kisses while we're about love. While kisses can occasionally be bitter and painful, they can also be sweet and passionate. Nonetheless, they are integral to human expression and have been around for millions of years. So, let's take a journey through time and explore the fascinating world of kisses (The earliest recorded kiss goes back at least 4,500 years to Mesopotamia…) and of the war (Military reasons why Ukraine will not be defeated: a ground operations perspective…) together.
Cheers...
Image by Germán & CoShalom,
My dear friends, and have a pleased Shabbat to all of you. I hope you are doing well and enjoying this beautiful day with your loved ones. I wish you all the best in love and health, as those are the most important things in life. It would be interesting to share the history of kisses while we're about love. While kisses can occasionally be bitter and painful, they can also be sweet and passionate. Nonetheless, they are integral to human expression and have been around for millions of years. So, let's take a journey through time and explore the fascinating world of kisses (The earliest recorded kiss goes back at least 4,500 years to Mesopotamia…) and of the war (Military reasons why Ukraine will not be defeated: a ground operations perspective…) together.
Cheers...
Foreword…
Love Kisses…
The Italian philosopher of love and erotism, Alberto Alberoni (born 31 December 1929 in Borgonovo Val Tidone, Piacenza, Italy), was a man of many contradictions. He was both a warrior and a lover, a fierce defender of his beliefs and a passionate advocate for the power of love. His writings about war and its effects on society were insightful and thought-provoking, but his musings on the nature of love truly captured the hearts and minds of his millions of readers. Indeed, the effects of the violence of war and love kisses are very different. War causes devastation, anarchy, and suffering. Contrarily, love offers warmth, comfort, and delight. But what happens when the two collide? It's a strange and confusing feeling, like being caught in the crossfire of opposing forces. It's that feeling of wanting to love someone but being afraid to get hurt. It's the feeling of wanting to fight for what you believe in but not wanting to harm those you love. It's a delicate balance that requires patience, understanding, and a willingness to compromise. But if you can find that balance, if you can learn to love and fight at the same time, then you'll indeed be unstoppable. It's hard to predict what the future holds for this issue. But one thing's for sure - we must go through chaos to reach a state of peace. It may be challenging...
The War…
In their ancestral conflict, somebody must be defeated Russia or Ukraine. Sadly, is this the only solution to the world's problems? Everything indicates that yes, if we take into consideration the latest news of the G7 coming paradoxically from the island of Hiroshima in Japan. The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has gotten out of hand, may be from the beginning.
Why?
Megalomania produces blindness, leading to delusions of grandeur and false realities. This is why megalomania blinds those who suffer from it and prevents them from a genuine connection with reality. Everything remains on the surface of the imagination. And this is the case with President Vladimir Putin. This mental health condition prevented him from genuinely analysing the risks of the invasion of Ukraine. Perhaps President Putin envisaged that a significant part of the world's nations would join the Ukrainian cause. Even Russia's friendly countries have been very reserved in their positions about the conflict.
It's important to remember that many complex and varied issues affect our world beyond just one regional military conflict. This battle has unfortunately distracted us from finding lasting solutions to problems like poverty, climate change, terrorism, and inequality that require global cooperation….
How long could it possibly take to bring about peace?
It's hard to predict what the future holds for this issue. But one thing's for sure - we must go through chaos to reach a state of peace. It may not be easy...
Image by Germán & CoMilitary reasons why Ukraine will not be defeated: a ground operations perspective…
Professor, International University of Japan, Noboru Yamaguchi, Military History and Strategy, International Security Policy and Strategy, Japan-U.S. Alliance.A little more than a year after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there are still no signs that Ukraine will be defeated. At the start of the war, Russian forces rapidly closed on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, and Ukraine’s fate was in doubt. However, the Ukrainians held firm, and on April 6, only six weeks after the war began, a senior U.S. Defense Department official revealed the official position that Russian forces had completely withdrawn from the front of Kyiv.[1] Why is it that Russia, which was seen as overwhelmingly superior, is unexpectedly struggling, and conversely, the Ukrainian military is exceeding expectations in its performance? This article will examine this question while focusing on ground operations in the traditional sense. It is important to note that Ukraine is fighting well in the information and cyber domains as well, but these issues will be examined on a separate occasion.
International support
International support from Western countries, the backdrop of Ukraine’s performance, should not be overlooked. It is not widely known, but NATO countries and other Western societies have supported Ukraine in various ways since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. For example, the U.S. sent a total of 364 personnel on military aid missions to Ukraine in 2015, immediately after the annexation of Crimea, including 310 training support personnel.[2] In 2021, the year before the Russian invasion, a military advisory group of 200 Canadians, 30 Lithuanians, 40 Poles, and 150 Americans helped train and modernize the Ukrainian army.[3] That support has greatly expanded since the invasion last year, including the provision of enormous amounts of weapons and ammunition. According to press reports, as of last fall, the U.S. had already provided more than $16.8 billion in military assistance.[4] In the broader context of information and cyber warfare, Western government agencies as well as information companies like Microsoft and Amazon have been assisting Ukraine primarily in the areas of training personnel for cyber security, institutional reform, and system strengthening in order to strengthen Ukraine's cyber defense capabilities.[5]
Demographics and troop replacement
In both Russia and Ukraine, as in Japan, the birthrate is declining and the younger population cohort is aging, so recruiting soldiers is not always easy. Despite this, many high-ranking officers in the Russian military have led operations with a disregard for human life, based on the mistaken belief that the human resources available to replenish the military are inexhaustible.[6] It has been noted since the mid-2010s that the Russian military has had serious problems recruiting soldiers. The demographic pressure of a declining youth population, the reduction of the conscription period to one year, and the introduction of a volunteer army system aimed at training professional soldiers have made recruitment difficult for the Russian armed forces. The fill rate for each service was as low as 82% as of 2014. Despite a slight turnaround since then, the volunteer recruitment targets set in the initial period of military modernization have not been met, and as a result, about one-third of soldiers are still conscripts who have received little training.[7] Russia's total population in 2020 was about 146 million with a fertility rate (birth per woman) of 1.51, similar to Japan's population of about 126 million with a fertility rate of 1.34. In such a society, if operational command is executed without regard to the loss of soldiers, recruitment will naturally become difficult. Moreover, it will lower the morale of soldiers and result in the loss of trust and support from the families of the soldiers, in other words, the people, for the military.
Ukraine has experienced demographics similar to those in Russia and has had problems with the high turnover of military personnel. Ironically, because of this problem, there are many young people among the general public who have received serious military training, and as a result, they have made an additional de facto reserve force.[8] Thus, in formulating its invasion plan, the Russian military made the mistake of underestimating Ukraine's mobilization capacity.
Wartime leadership and operational command
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think tank, says the main reasons Russia is struggling are overconfidence in its own forces and underestimating its enemy.[9] Russia deployed 150,000 troops at the start of the war, but it clearly overreached in its objective. Russia's invasion plan envisioned a short decisive battle—a blitzkrieg so to speak—based on the premise that Ukraine would be overthrown within 10 days of the outbreak of war and the entire country would be pacified and annexed by August. The early capture of Kyiv would force the Ukrainian leadership to flee and the state would collapse. There was also the optimistic scenario that the pro-Russia population in Ukraine would support the Russian military as it advanced. From the Marco Polo Bridge Incident of 1937 until the end of World War II in 1945, the Japanese military deployed up to over one million troops in northern China, and area roughly the size of Ukraine. However, it could only control major towns on and areas around rail lines—in other words, points and lines. It was impossible to control a country 1.5 times the size of Japan with just over half the number of troops of the modern Self-Defense Forces.
At the tactical level, the Ukrainian military appears to be outperforming the Russian military in operational command. Since the beginning of the war, both sides have stressed the leadership of junior commanders. It is said that the Russian military gave 127 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) areas of operation and tasks to accomplish during the invasion. A BTG consists of 600-800 men and is a compact but independent unit with several infantry companies as well as artillery, air defense, engineering, and logistical support functions. The aim of this formation is for relatively small units to disperse and maneuver autonomously to quickly settle the battle under fluid conditions. The keys to this, however, are the judgment of the junior commanders in the smaller units under the battalion commander and information-sharing among the dispersed units. More simply put, a BTG is an organization that relies on the abilities of junior and non-commissioned officers. Unlike the armies of the U.S. and NATO countries, this formation is not suitable for the Russian military, which lacks professional volunteer soldiers. As a result, it has been observed that the Russian military itself has abandoned this concept.[10]
Since 2014, Ukrainian forces have been engaging Russian troops for nearly a decade, albeit at low intensity. During this period, preparations have always been made with an escalation (i.e., a large-scale invasion) by Russian forces in mind. In particular, mid- and junior-ranked officers have been rotated to several fronts and tasked with becoming familiar with the terrain of each front and the tactics of the Russians.[11] In addition, Air Force fighter pilots were repeatedly trained to fly at very low altitudes over their own country in preparation for action under Russian air superiority from the beginning of an escalation, and they were well versed in the terrain before the actual battle. The difference with the Russian soldiers, who, to keep battle plans secret, were not even informed of their participation in the actual battle, to say nothing of the situation at the front where they would be deployed, is significant.
High-tech and legacy weapons
Among the Western support, it seems that the Ukrainian military relied heavily on relatively small and inexpensive high-tech weapons and legacy weapons such as conventional tube artillery, rocket launchers, and tanks. The impact of the portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles has been particularly striking. The Javelin, a mobile anti-tank guided missile, has a range of 2,000 meters and, in top attack mode, penetrates the thinly armored top of the turret at a steep angle over the tank's head.[12] The armor on the upper part of the turret, in other words the ceiling of the fighting compartment where the crew acts, is not very thick because technology to attack tanks from overhead has never been put to practical use. However, an increasing number of recent anti-tank missiles, like the Javelin, have top attack capability. Furthermore, in Soviet and Russian tanks, the area under the floor of the fighting compartment is used as an ammunition storage compartment, and there are no bulkheads to protect the fighting compartment. Therefore, when they are hit by a top attack, the shells stored beneath tend to ignite, causing a large explosion. This is why scenes of Russian tank turrets flying up in the air like a jack-in-the-box are frequently reported.
The role of legacy weapons like conventional artillery has also been significant. In addition to pinpointing and destroying targets with precision-guided weapons, ground combat often requires, for example, barraging enemy infantry positions to prevent them from moving or acting. This is when the number of punches, like jabs in boxing, becomes important. When the author attended the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada last November, one of the most frequently heard phrases was “155-millimeter shells.” The Ukrainian military has worked in recent years to strengthen its artillery firepower with howitzers, other barrel artillery and multiple rocket launchers. This is based on the experience that since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, 90% of casualties in engagements with Russian forces have been caused by artillery. As a result, a comparison of Russian and Ukrainian troop strength at the beginning of the war shows that while Russia had an overwhelming advantage in total troop strength (900,000 to 210,000 troops) the difference in artillery was not at a decisive point (2,433 guns to 1,176 guns and 3,547 multiple rocket launchers to 1,680).[13] Furthermore, the combat efficiency of Ukrainian artillery is said to be higher than that of Russian artillery.[14] This is due to the fact that while the Ukrainian military uses the same artillery as the Russian military, it also makes extensive use of drones to search for targets and observe fire, and utilizes digital command and control systems to efficiently operate its artillery units.
Lessons about the importance of stockpiling ammunition
The important role of artillery means a great deal of ammunition consumption, and there are questions about whether ammunition production capacity can supply the required amount. The U.S. and other NATO countries have provided Ukraine with more than 150 155-mm howitzers since the war began last year.[15] On average, the Ukrainian military consumes 3,000 rounds of 155-mm ammunition per day, or 90,000 rounds a month.[16] In contrast, the U.S. in its entirety produces 14,000 rounds of this ammunition per month, meaning it takes six months to produce the monthly consumption of the Ukrainian military. With this unexpectedly high consumption of artillery shells and missiles, the U.S. Department of Defense has begun to strengthen its ammunition production base to about three times its current level, but this will take time. In the case of 155-mm shells, it appears the U.S. will reach its target of producing 20,000 shells per month by spring 2023 and 40,000 per month by 2025.[17]
This is an instructive lesson for the defense of Japan. To begin with, ammunition is less flashy than the weapons themselves, and the effects of the investment are difficult to see. Moreover, while a budget request for a naval vessel or fighter plane cannot be reduced by half, ammunition, like a liquid, can be cut by any percentage. Furthermore, procuring ammunition requires ammunition storage facilities. The fact that it is not easy to secure land to build ammunition depots in densely populated Japan has been one of the factors reducing the willingness to allocate spending for ammunition procurement. With the defense budget expected to increase, it is urgent that resources are invested in ammunition stockpiling, which has been neglected.
Conclusion
As stated at the beginning of this article, there are no signs that Ukraine will lose. As long as Western support continues, Russia does not seem to have a means to win. However, it is hard to imagine Russia losing. This can be explained for purely tactical reasons: The farther the Ukrainian counteroffensive goes, the longer the supply lines will become, and the more threatening the enemy will be. As the author noted in a previous article,[18] it is strategically inadvisable to put Russia in such a position given the fear of an escalation to the use of nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, there is no hope that this war will end in the short term because neither side can easily compromise on the current situation. It will take a long time to reduce the level of engagement and bring the situation to a point where it could be considered a standoff. In other words, it will take years just to bring the current state closer to a situation similar to the 38th parallel on the Korean Peninsula.
Image by Gernán & CoThe earliest recorded kiss goes back at least 4,500 years to Mesopotamia
Researchers cite clay tablets and other materials that push back evidence of kissing by about 1,000 years
THE NEW YORKER By Mark Johnson, May 18, 2023 Couples kiss after midnight during the 2013 New Year's Eve celebration in New York City's Times Square. (Christopher Gregory/Getty Images)
When was the first kiss? Recent papers have suggested that romantic or sexual kissing began 3,500 years ago in what is now India. But a new review paper in the journal Science says that this style of kissing is also mentioned in clay tablets from Mesopotamia that predate the Indian texts by about a thousand years.
Danish husband and wife researchers Troels Pank Arboll and Sophie Lund Rasmussen stress that “the behavior did not emerge abruptly or in a specific society, but appears to have been practiced in multiple ancient cultures,” including Egypt.
Arboll and Rasmussen note that “the act of kissing may have played a secondary and unintentional role throughout history” by enabling disease-causing microorganisms to spread from one mouth to another. But the kiss, they write, “cannot be regarded as a sudden biological trigger” that led to societies being deluged by pathogens.
The two researchers launched on their search for the earliest kiss last summer while discussing a paper on the ancient DNA of the herpes simplex virus 1 at the dinner table. The herpes paper had noted a shift in the transmission of the virus during the Bronze Age (2,000 to 700 B.C.), “potentially linked” to new cultural practices “such as the advent of sexual-romantic kissing.”
New? Bronze Age? Really?
“I said to Sophie that I knew we had something older. And then I started digging a bit into that,” said Arboll, an assistant professor of Assyriology at the University of Copenhagen who studies ancient accounts of medical diagnoses, prescriptions and healing rituals.
“We’re a very nerdy couple,” explained Rasmussen, an ecologist at the University of Oxford’s Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU) and Aalborg University in Denmark.
Arboll had little trouble finding accounts of kissing from Mesopotamia written in both the Sumerian and Akkadian languages. He and Rasmussen noted too a calcite sculpture in the British Museum called the “Ain Sakhri Lovers,” which was found in caves near Bethlehem and is estimated to be about 11,000 years old.
“It had been known for decades in my field,” Arboll said of the written accounts of kissing from Mesopotamia.
“The thing about Assyriologists,” Rasmussen said, “is they like to argue with each other, but they don’t really talk to other people.”
That could explain why some experts adopted India as the place of origin for kissing, though Arboll has a different theory:
"I think one of the sources they cite are manuals like the Kama Sutra,” he said, referring to texts estimated to have been published between 2,400 and 1,700 years ago. “That’s obviously very appealing for discussing sexual behavior, I imagine.”
In her 2011 book “The Science of Kissing: What Our Lips Are Telling Us,” Sheril Kirshenbaum reported the earliest literary evidence for human kissing “dated back to India’s Vedic Sanskrit texts around 1500 B.C.” But she’s convinced the behavior goes back much further in history.
“We see so many similar behaviors across the animal kingdom — including in our closest relatives, like bonobos,” she said. “I suspect our species has been kissing for as long as we’ve been on Earth.”
There may have been practical reasons for humans to kiss, Rasmussen said. “I came across research suggesting that the purpose of kissing, why it could have evolved, is that it serves as an opportunity to evaluate your partner,” she said. “If you kiss somebody with poor teeth, they tend to have bad breath.”
Kissing may have allowed couples to bond and strengthen their relationship. “And of course also for sexual arousal,” said Rasmussen. “So when you want to mate and pass on your genes, it’s very convenient.”
Enjoying a romantic kiss outside the confines of marriage appears to have been frowned upon by the Mesopotamians. Arboll and Rasmussen came across the story of a married woman “almost led astray by a kiss from another man.” Worse, kissing someone who was not supposed to be sexually active, such as a priestess, they write, “was said to deprive the kisser of the ability to speak.”
Such prohibitions may have had the unintended benefit of protecting the good health of the kiss-deprived. The Danish researchers point out kissing’s likely role in spreading herpes simplex virus 1, Epstein-Barr virus and human parvovirus B19, which causes a rash. Such pathogens, the authors wrote, “can infect humans through a range of different transmission routes, including saliva, making any act of kissing a potential means of spreading infection.”
To date, though, science has had relatively little to say about kissing, according to Kirshenbaum, an academic specialist at Michigan State University.
A scientific literature search for “kiss” or “kissing” sends you through funky territory before you ever encounter two sets of lips. PubMed’s search engine begins with the KISS1 gene and its product kisspeptin, and proceeds to a cellular process called kiss-and-run. Google assumes that in seeking the “earliest known kiss,” you hope to find the earliest publicity photo of the rock band Kiss, or the earliest known Kiss tribute band.
“Here’s something that touches all of us,” Kirshenbaum said, “yet science has barely scratched the surface of it.”
An 11,000-year-old carving known as the “Ain Sakhri Lovers,” found in a cave system near Bethlehem, may be one of the earliest depictions of humans kissing. (British Museum)
The human fascination with kissing history comes as no surprise to Laura Weyrich, an associate professor of anthropology at Pennsylvania State University who co-authored one of the studies cited by the Danish researchers. Her paper, published in Nature in 2017, examined DNA from the dental plaque of Neanderthals and used it to infer information on their behavior, diet and disease.
Weyrich’s study noted that humans and Neanderthals may have traded microbes, which could have happened through the sharing of food or water sources — or through kissing.
In some interviews about the Neanderthal paper, Weyrich dispensed with the term “kissing” in favor of the more earthy alternative, swapping spit, and “biologically, it really is swapping spit,” she said.
Never let it be said that scientists lack romance.
There is some debate among researchers about whether kissing began in one place and spread or had “numerous independent origins,” as Arboll and Rasmussen write.
“My hunch is that kissing arose or was discovered amongst elite in complex societies (hierarchal, market systems with writing) and diffused outward,” William Jankowiak, a professor of anthropology at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, wrote in an email.
The practice of kissing, he said, was in keeping with “the elite pursuit of pleasure.”
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
News round-up, May 19, 2023
Most read…
As Oil Giants Retreat Globally, Smaller Players Rush In
BP, TotalEnergies, Chevron and others are shifting to cleaner projects
WSJ By Nicholas Bariyo in Kampala, Uganda, Juan Forero, in Bogotá, Colombia, and Jon Emont in Singapore, May 18, 2023 “Debt-Limit Terror” Is No Way to Run a Superpower
On the latest round of the Republicans’ dangerous game.
The New Yorker By Susan B. Glasser, May 18, 2023Yevgeny's Prigozhin's Meat Grinder
A Moment of Truth for Russia's Wagner Group in Bakhmut
The Russian mercenary force Wagner Group has propped up autocrats from Mali to Syria in recent years. In Bakhmut, however, it now finds itself in the bloody spotlight of the war in Ukraine. Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has long enjoyed Putin's support – but for how much longer?
By Christian Esch, Christina Hebel, Alexander Chernyshev, Fedir Petrov, Alexander Sarovic, Christoph Reuter, Fritz Schaap and Andrey Kaganskikh, TODAYG7 urged to phase out fossil fuels by Netherlands, Chile, others
The leaders of seven nations, including the Netherlands and Chile, have stated that the Group of Seven rich countries must take the initiative in gradually phasing out fossil fuels to create momentum for a worldwide agreement this year.
REUTERS By Kate Abnett, EDITING BY Germán & CoFriday Briefing…
—The U.S. debt limit nears/Balancing the U.S. budget for Ukraine aid
—The end of al-Assad’s isolation?
Image: The Agbami deep-water oil field in Nigeria. GEORGE OSODI/BLOOMBERG NEWS/Editing by Germán & CoMost read…
As Oil Giants Retreat Globally, Smaller Players Rush In
BP, TotalEnergies, Chevron and others are shifting to cleaner projects
WSJ By Nicholas Bariyo in Kampala, Uganda, Juan Forero, in Bogotá, Colombia, and Jon Emont in Singapore, May 18, 2023 “Debt-Limit Terror” Is No Way to Run a Superpower
On the latest round of the Republicans’ dangerous game.
The New Yorker By Susan B. Glasser, May 18, 2023Yevgeny's Prigozhin's Meat Grinder
A Moment of Truth for Russia's Wagner Group in Bakhmut
The Russian mercenary force Wagner Group has propped up autocrats from Mali to Syria in recent years. In Bakhmut, however, it now finds itself in the bloody spotlight of the war in Ukraine. Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has long enjoyed Putin's support – but for how much longer?
By Christian Esch, Christina Hebel, Alexander Chernyshev, Fedir Petrov, Alexander Sarovic, Christoph Reuter, Fritz Schaap and Andrey Kaganskikh, G7 urged to phase out fossil fuels by Netherlands, Chile, others
The leaders of seven nations, including the Netherlands and Chile, have stated that the Group of Seven rich countries must take the initiative in gradually phasing out fossil fuels to create momentum for a worldwide agreement this year.
REUTERS By Kate Abnett, EDITING BY Germán & CoFriday Briefing…
—The U.S. debt limit nears/Balancing the U.S. budget for Ukraine aid
—The end of al-Assad’s isolation?
The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.How can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
Today's events
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The Agbami deep-water oil field in Nigeria. GEORGE OSODI/BLOOMBERG NEWS/Editing by Germán & CoAs Oil Giants Retreat Globally, Smaller Players Rush In
BP, TotalEnergies, Chevron and others are shifting to cleaner projects
WSJ By Nicholas Bariyo in Kampala, Uganda, Juan Forero, in Bogotá, Colombia, and Jon Emont in Singapore, May 18, 2023 Under pressure from shareholders and activists, major energy companies are retreating from higher-polluting and riskier projects around the world. A bunch of smaller companies are rushing in to fill the void.
In Nigeria, smaller companies now hold nearly half of the country’s oil and gas oil leases acquired from major companies that have retreated in recent years. In Latin America, an independent firm has pushed into oil exploration in areas eschewed by Occidental Petroleum and BP. In Asia, Chevron is pulling out of a controversial gas project in Myanmar, and a little-known Canadian firm has agreed to snap up its stake.
The moves illustrate how smaller and more nimble firms are taking advantage of higher energy prices and the openings left by global companies that are now pivoting toward cleaner energy, or focusing on their most profitable projects. The trend also shows that despite major oil companies’ efforts to reduce their carbon footprints, their exodus from fossil-fuel projects has little effect on emissions overall.
In Nigeria, gas flaring—an emissions-heavy process that burns the natural gas associated with oil extraction—has increased by 10% over the past decade. PHOTO: GEORGE OSODI/BLOOMBERG NEWS
“What we are seeing is that the larger companies are reducing their share in aging assets with little upside production that have relatively large emissions,” said Audun Martinsen, head of energy-service research at Rystad Energy, an energy-sector research firm. “Their space has been filled by smaller exploration and production companies.”
Such companies usually have lower costs and are better placed to run such operations, he said, since they can quickly recoup returns on investments before a downturn cycle. Watchdog groups and human-rights advocates warn that smaller or private companies can at times pose a greater risk to climate and human rights in some corners of the world, because they aren’t subject to the same public scrutiny and pressure as more globally known, publicly traded players.
Overall, the portion of offshore investments held by major companies is slated to shrink from 45% in 2019 to 37% by 2025, according to Rystad. Investments in brand-new fossil oil projects around the world—many of them by smaller, lesser-known or private oil-and-gas companies—are projected to break the $100 billion mark this year, the first breach for two years in a row since 2012, according to Rystad.
In Africa, the stakes held by major oil companies in fossil-fuel projects are set to shrink to 50% in 2025, from 65% in 2019, according to Rystad data. Meanwhile, the value of new oil deals in Africa reached some $21 billion last year, more than four times the $5.5 billion worth of deals registered in 2020.
Most of the world’s biggest energy companies have invested heavily in low-carbon strategies in recent years, while dialing back on fossil-fuel exploration and production except in their most profitable regions. Chevron, Shell and Exxon, for example, have left Nigeria, Ghana and elsewhere amid promises to reduce emissions as well as mounting security challenges related to oil thefts and lawsuits over pollution.
Independent and smaller companies now account for 32% of total oil and gas output in Africa, compared with an average of 25% over the past decade, according to the South Africa-based African Energy Chamber, an industry group, as firms including Nigeria-based Seplat Energy and Canada’s ReconAfrica have moved in, buying up oil and gas assets or undertaking exploration.
In Latin America, major companies are developing a handful of big oil and gas fields. But increasingly, it is smaller, little-known firms that are getting the fossil fuels out of the ground. Independent companies such as Gran Tierra in Colombia, CGX Energy in Guyana, and Vista in Argentina are moving in, taking risks and investing, sometimes in regions that have hardly been explored.
In recent years, GeoPark, a Bogotá-based independent company that is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, has centered its operations on Colombia. Larger companies such as BP had left, while Houston-based Occidental Petroleum sold most local assets after making a large U.S. acquisition.
In a series of wells drilled in 2016 and 2017, GeoPark found a 400-million-barrel field in Colombia’s central plains—the so-called llanos.
“There’s a giant oil field in the middle of the llanos basin that everybody missed. We hit it,” CEO Andrés Ocampo said. “Not only did they miss it. But they were not even looking for it.”
Toronto-listed New Stratus Energy has left Ecuador but is now eyeing entry into Mexico, Peru and Colombia. It is among several small companies in Latin America with executives and geologists who worked for years at Venezuela’s state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela, known as PDVSA, but left once the industry in that country collapsed.
Workers with PTT Exploration & Production at a petroleum field in Thailand. PHOTO: DARIO PIGNATELLI/BLOOMBERG NEWS
“There’s a lot of opportunity for companies like us that are well-capitalized and have experienced management teams to go into places, and be nimble, where larger companies can’t,” said Wade Felesky, New Stratus Energy’s president.
Some smaller firms also have a high tolerance for controversial projects. Off Guyana’s coast in June 2000, Surinamese navy gunboats expelled Canada’s CGX Energy from a drilling project in waters that Suriname then claimed as its own. But the company stayed committed to Guyana. It discovered oil there last year.
A CGX spokesman said the company’s operations in Guyana include a joint venture with Canada’s Frontera Energy to drill offshore in the country’s eastern Corentyne region. The companies are completing a second exploration well there, the spokesman said, adding that CGX is also developing a deep-water port in the country.
Last year, France’s TotalEnergies stopped operating a major Myanmar gas field, saying revenue payments to the state became controversial after a military coup in Myanmar in 2021. Operations were taken over by Thailand’s PTT Exploration & Production, which cited the gas fields’ importance to Myanmar and Thai energy consumers.
Chevron, the other major Western player in the project, last year agreed to sell its stake in the project to Et Martem Holdings, the wholly owned subsidiary of MTI Energy, a Canadian company.
Advocacy group Justice for Myanmar condemned the sale, saying the project supports that country’s military dictatorship, which has been accused of killing protesters and other crimes. MTI Energy didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Environmental advocates warn that smaller and more opaque companies can cause the same environmental damage that major companies, such as Shell, have been accused of in recent years.
Canada’s ReconAfrica exploring for oil in northern Namibia. PHOTO: NICOLE MACHEROUX-DENAULT/DPA/ZUMA PRESS
In Nigeria, gas flaring—an emissions-heavy process that burns the natural gas associated with oil extraction—has increased by 10% over the past decade. Meanwhile, smaller companies, including Aiteo Eastern E&P, have been increasing their share of operations in the country, according to data from Capterio, a U.K.-based firm that tracks gas flaring and local environmental groups. Aiteo didn’t respond to multiple calls and written requests for comment.
In Angola, the disposal of solid and liquid waste on the coast has gone up since Somoil, Angola’s large, private energy company, took over licenses of TotalEnergies last year, according to EcoJango, an environmental consulting firm based in Angola. An average of 10,000 tons of waste are dumped along Angola’s beaches every day, versus around 6,000 tons three years ago, according to the state-run National Institute of Biodiversity and Conservation. Somoil didn’t respond to multiple questions about its environmental record.
In Africa’s Okavango Delta, a U.N.-recognized World Heritage site of channels and lagoons, local groups accuse Canada’s ReconAfrica of polluting domestic water sources and intimidating local residents opposed to its continuing search for oil.
A spokesman for ReconAfrica denied the accusations and said the company is applying rigorous safety and environmental protection standards in its operations. He added that ReconAfrica is committed to “responsible and ethical resource development.”
Anusha Narayanan, climate campaign director at Greenpeace USA, said new fossil-fuel projects will hamper the transition to cleaner energy.
“Some contracts signed over the last year by producers and importers are locking them into decades of pollution,” she said.
Joe Biden arrives at the Marine Corps Air Station in Iwakuni, Japan, ahead of the G-7 summit in Hiroshima.Photograph by Susan Walsh / AP/EDITING BY Germán & Co“Debt-Limit Terror” Is No Way to Run a Superpower
On the latest round of the Republicans’ dangerous game.
The New Yorker By Susan B. Glasser, May 18, 2023What can you say about a week in American politics when the major breakthrough was that the two parties agreed to stop talking about talking, in order to actually start talking? In Washington, where, for months, President Biden and congressional Republicans have been hurtling toward a confrontation over the G.O.P.’s refusal to raise the debt ceiling without major concessions from Democrats on federal spending, the beginning of formal negotiations aimed at averting a disastrous government default counted as big news. For the rest of the world, it was merely a sign of the capital’s extreme dysfunction, and a reminder that America’s messed-up politics constitutes a geopolitical crisis as well as a domestic one.
On Tuesday, Biden reinforced the point by announcing that he would cut short an important overseas trip to the Pacific region in order to return to Washington for the debt talks. With default looming—coming, perhaps, as soon as early June, according to the Treasury Department—this seemed like a politically advisable course, but the optics were nonetheless terrible. The President will still attend the G-7 meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, but skip his planned stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea. Both visits had been designed to showcase the U.S.’s top foreign-policy priority—shoring up American alliances in the region as part of the growing confrontation with China.
The change in Biden’s plans did not go over well. Papua New Guinea had scheduled a national holiday for this coming Monday to celebrate the first time a sitting American President would visit the suddenly strategic island nation. Oops. Party cancelled. In Australia, Biden’s decision was seen as a significant political embarrassment for the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese—“a disappointment, a mess, and a gift to Beijing,” as a headline in the Sydney Morning Herald put it. Albanese, who had announced, a mere nine hours before the White House pulled out, that Biden would address a special joint session of the Australian Parliament, ended up scrapping a planned summit of leaders from Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S., a coalition of countries known as the Quad. He complained about “the blocking and the disruption that’s occurring in domestic politics in the U.S., with the debt-ceiling issue.” Back in Washington, even the President’s supporters were embarrassed. Although Biden had to put himself “in the center of action,” Representative Jake Auchincloss, a Democratic up-and-comer from Massachusetts, said, “it’s painful to see a public-relations gift for the Chinese Communist Party.”
Sending a message to the rest of the world about American leadership has clearly not been the foremost concern of Republicans on Capitol Hill. Never mind that some of these same Republicans are the loudest voices demanding more and tougher confrontation with China. For months, the brewing debt-ceiling fight has been the capital’s equivalent of background noise, some weeks louder, some weeks quieter, but always there, waiting for the inevitable moment when the U.S. would come close to default and the real politics would begin. It was merely a coincidence, albeit a highly symbolic one, that Biden was at the G-7 summit, in Japan, the same week that he finally gave in to Republican demands to negotiate spending cuts as a price for a debt-ceiling increase and named a team—the White House aide Steve Ricchetti and the Office of Management and Budget director Shalanda Young—to do it. The official spin from Democrats is that the White House has not actually capitulated, since the talks are about the budget, not the debt limit itself. “We have not budged from our position that default should not be used as hostage-taking,” the Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer, said. Except, of course, that is exactly what is happening.
One of the problems is that we’ve been here before, in 2011 and 2013, when, just like today, a Democrat was in the White House and Republicans controlled the House. The script is all too familiar: there were dire warnings, talks about talking, and then frantic last-minute negotiations. Each time, a default was averted, but only barely. (In 2011, a deal was reached two days before the predicted date of default, after financial markets went crazy and Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time in history.) Few observers believe a default will happen this time, either. Which makes the present crisis a very artificial one indeed, manufactured by Republicans who now see a ritual act of economic self-sabotage as a surefire way to extract concessions that they could not otherwise secure.
This, alas, was always the G.O.P.’s plan if it managed to win back the House in this past fall’s midterms—as early as last October, weeks before the election, leaders of the extreme Freedom Caucus faction said openly that they were looking forward to using the debt ceiling as “leverage.” “Debt-limit terror,” as the former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers called it in an interview with Politico last year, was both foreseeable and foreseen. But, like the return of Donald Trump as the 2024 Republican front-runner, the fact that a political crisis was entirely predictable has not in any way prevented it from happening.
Democrats “made a horrible mistake” by agreeing to negotiations in 2011, the Democratic senator Chris Murphy, of Connecticut, told Punchbowl News this week, arguing that, this time, the Democrats should call the G.O.P.’s bluff and run out the clock. That way, Republicans would either have to cave and agree to raise the debt ceiling without attaching extraneous provisions, or they would take the country into default and own the political consequences. Other Democrats, concerned that the White House will eventually agree to Republican demands—which include strict budget caps, work requirements on federal assistance to the poor, and the rollback of key provisions in Biden’s signature legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act—are publicly pushing the untested legal theory that the Fourteenth Amendment allows Biden to bypass Congress and act unilaterally to secure the public debt. “Get rid of the debt-limit hand grenade forever,” Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat, urged the President in a video he posted on Twitter. “This blackmailing has to end,” Senator Jeff Merkley, of Oregon, another supporter of invoking the Fourteenth Amendment, said.
But that is not the path that Biden has chosen, nor, despite his recent bluster that he was thinking of going that route, did it ever seem like a serious possibility. Talks were inevitable, and the suspense now mostly lies in the details of whatever deal is reached. Part of the Democratic skepticism is the almost palpable fear that the White House will concede too much. A deal is still not a foregone conclusion. Uncertainty remains. It could all blow up. And so success is measured, once again, in the usual small Washington increments, in which a decision to allow the talking to begin counts as progress. Smelling victory, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy does not even seem to mind being called a terrorist. “I see the path,” McCarthy told reporters on Thursday. Of course he did.
The unravelling of a superpower’s credibility does not happen in an instant but over time and as a result of repeated crises. That the crises plaguing Washington are often self-inflicted has not made them any less damaging. Biden is right to fly back to his embattled capital. The greatest threat to the international order is right here.
Foto: [M]: Mikhail Metzel / SNA / IMAGO; AP / dpa; RIA Novosti / SNA / IMAGO; REUTERS; Valentin Sprinchak / ITAR-TASS / IMAGO/Editing by Germán & CoYevgeny's Prigozhin's Meat Grinder
A Moment of Truth for Russia's Wagner Group in Bakhmut
The Russian mercenary force Wagner Group has propped up autocrats from Mali to Syria in recent years. In Bakhmut, however, it now finds itself in the bloody spotlight of the war in Ukraine. Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has long enjoyed Putin's support – but for how much longer?
By Christian Esch, Christina Hebel, Alexander Chernyshev, Fedir Petrov, Alexander Sarovic, Christoph Reuter, Fritz Schaap and Andrey Kaganskikh, The clip that Yevgeny Prigozhin recently posted to his Telegram channel could easily have been mistaken for a poorly made horror film. It shows a field at night, bloodied dead bodies lying in the light of Prigozhin’s flashlight. Also in the video is Prigozhin himself, a brawny, bald man wearing a pistol in a holster. "These are boys from Wagner who died today. Their blood is still fresh!" he growls. The camera pans further, and only now can viewers see that there are four grisly rows of bodies. Dozens of corpses in uniform, many of them with no boots.
Then Prigozhin steps directly in front of the camera and explodes. His face contorted in anger, he hurls insults at Russian military leaders who, he says, are failing to provide him with the munitions he needs. "You will eat their entrails in hell," he yells. "Shoigu, Gerasimov, where is the fucking ammunition?" It is an outburst of rage against Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, but staged for better effect and loaded with profanity and contempt. Prigozhin sounds like a bandit challenging his rivals on the outskirts of town at night. Like he would like to turn both Shoigu and Gerasimov into corpses that he could then lay next to his boys.
Russia last week celebrated its World War II victory over Nazi Germany with the usual military parade on Red Square, a speech by the president and marching music. But whatever uplifting images the Kremlin wanted to create in Moscow, they were overwhelmed by Prigozhin’s nighttime parade of corpses and his abuse, recorded in a field somewhere near Bakhmut in the Donbas, where he had sent the Wagner Group fighters to their deaths.
Prigozhin, a businessman from St. Petersburg, has good contacts within Putin’s closest circle and is the leader of a notorious mercenary unit that is active from Syria to Mali. Prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, he was very rarely in the public eye. Now, though, the war has given him a new role and a new stage.
His is the story of one man's rise to unimaginable power. Within Putin’s dictatorship, it appears that Prigozhin can do whatever he likes. He can promise people their freedom or send them to their deaths, he can humiliate powerful men and openly threaten his enemies. And his story is also that of an outfit that fights without mercy – and, in this war’s longest battle in Bakhmut, is sacrificed without mercy.
Prigozhin poses as Putin’s loyal bloodhound, but also threatens the very system the president has built up. He has turned the sledgehammer into a symbol of his politics, to the horror of the Russian elite and the pleasure of some Russians. He takes care of the dirty work for Putin – but he has decided to highlight that filth instead of doing his work in the shadows. He has given a face to the brutalization of the Putin regime. Many, though, have been left to wonder: Is this man powerful? Is he a megalomaniac? Desperate? All of the above?
A photo of a Wagner mercenary fighting in house-to-house combat in Bakhmut, published in a state-run Russian media outlet. Foto: Evgeny Biyatov / Sputnik / IMAGO/EDITING BY GERMÁN & COHardly a day has passed in recent months without Prigozhin posting audio files, videos or photos to his Telegram channel. He has had himself filmed in an embattled salt mine and in the cockpit of a Su-24 bomber. He presented mandarin oranges to Ukrainian prisoners of war at New Year’s, only to then threaten that he would be taking no more prisoners. He has offered his services as a mediator in Sudan, insulted the family of the Russian defense minister, complained about competition from Gazprom mercenaries and said he should be given 200,000 troops so he could take care of Ukraine once and for all. He has talked and talked and talked.
One week before his video of the dead bodies in the field, Prigozhin sat down for the most in-depth interview he has given in quite some time. In it, he presented a different version of himself: that of a jovial, even cheerful older man in reading glasses who is fond of talking about his own merits. Wearing an olive-green, Beretta-brand fleece, he was sitting in a windowless room, apparently his headquarters in the Donbas.
"In this room," Prigozhin claimed in the interview, he and his people developed the battleplan for Bakhmut, the "Bakhmut Meat Grinder." The idea, he said, was to wear down a large part of the Ukrainian army during the fighting. Then, Prigozhin continued, they had invited Army General Sergei Surovikin – who was commander of the invasion force at the time – to join them. "Surovikin sat down, listened to our plan, and went 'Holy Shit!' and said, 'Boys, fuck it all, I graduated from the Military Academy for no reason at all!'"
It was the kind of story one frequently hears from Prigozhin – and it is totally unclear where fact and fiction intersect. It was meant to show that the businessman, who never advanced beyond the rank of private, is on a level with Russia’s senior-most generals. That the battle plan came directly from him. And that the months of slamming into enemy positions, far from being a mistake, was actually part of a clever plan.
It's just that the meat grinder is no longer working, because his troops are also being butchered – and because he is no longer receiving the munitions he needs. It is a complaint that Prigozhin has been making for quite some time.
Bakhmut: A Mission of Choice
The fact is, Prigozhin has made the conquering of Bakhmut his personal mission. It was apparently his idea to attack the city before Ukrainian supply lines were cut, thus turning it into a battle of attrition – from the standpoint of both personnel and materiel. For weeks, this small town in the Donbas has been on the verge of being completely overrun. In recent days, however, the Ukrainians have begun to claw back territory from the Russians.
The most surprising thing is not, however, that a businessman and head of a private mercenary army (which shouldn’t exist according to Russian law) claims to have developed this suicidal battle plan together with army commanders. It’s the fact that this man was also allowed to recruit his fighters from the prisons of Russia.
One of his fighters was Rustam, 42, a man with a gray, haggard face and a weak, high-pitched voice. He spent a few days in the meat grinder of Bakhmut as a disposable soldier, a tiny figure on Prigozhin’s vast chessboard. Currently, he is waiting in a prison in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, waiting to be included in a prisoner exchange. It is there that he told DER SPIEGEL his story.
Rustam, whose name has been changed for this story, wears two bracelets on his left wrist. The red one stands for HIV and the white for hepatitis – symbols used in the Wagner Group to identify the infections that the prisoners in its ranks suffer from. Rustam is now in the advanced stages of AIDS, and he estimates that he has just three or four years left to live. His prison sentence was far longer than that: 11.5 years for the possession and consumption of methadone. When Wagner representatives showed up in his camp in the Ural region, he still had a decade left to serve, and his calculation was a simple one: Serve six months in Ukraine and be released; or die behind bars.
Of the 30 men who reported for duty from Rustam’s colony, he was apparently one of the most able-bodied. Only nine of them managed to complete the required fitness test, the sit-ups and the pull-ups. He says they were told they wouldn’t be used as fighters anyway and would instead be responsible for pulling the injured and dead from the battlefield.
“They would advance directly into our fire. Once the first wave was dead, the next one appeared. And the next."
Ukrainian soldier from the 113th Brigade in Bakhmut about the Wagner fighters.
Rustam received three weeks of training from the Wagner Group in a camp in Ukraine, apparently close to the front. Rustam says that he could sometimes hear artillery fire. "You can ignore the rules you learned in prison," they were told. "We are now all one family."
He went into battle for his first and last time on the night of February 9. Suddenly, there was no longer any mention of just recovering the wounded. Instead, they were ordered to take a bit of high ground near Bakhmut, and they immediately came under fire from grenade launchers and snipers. Rustam crawled back and forth, playing dead when drones flew overhead. He was a living bull’s-eye in the snow, which he ate to still his thirst. On the second day, he was shot in the arm and lost consciousness. When he woke up, he was a war prisoner.
Rustam now says he never again wants to go into battle. Though that is a pledge he also made to himself two decades ago, back when he returned from the Chechen war.
There are up to 10,000 Wagner fighters currently in Ukraine, according to a senior official in the Ukrainian military intelligence agency HUR, and most of them have been deployed in and around Bakhmut. The meat grinder has been in operation for months now. Housing block by housing block, destroyed home by destroyed home, the Ukrainians have pulled back.
They observed Prigozhin’s battle tactics with horror. "They were like the White Walkers from 'Game of Thrones,'" says a Ukrainian soldier from the 113th Brigade in Bakhmut – referring to the creatures on the HBO series who rode out of the ice and into battle on undead horses, immune to fear and pain. "They would advance directly into our fire. Once the first wave was dead, the next one appeared. And the next. It sometimes went on like that for half a day or an entire night." The Russians continued launching such attacks, the Ukrainian soldier says, for two months, until the Wagner prisoners were replaced by soldiers from the regular Russian army.
A Ukrainian junior officer shows a video taken by an infrared camera of men armed with assault rifles who, rather than running, apparently walked into battle unconcerned about cover. They simply strode onward, straight ahead.
The HUR official estimates that up to 70 percent of the attackers died in such assaults.
But in the battle for Bakhmut, it’s not just the many thousand Russian prisoners who have been crippled and killed. It is quite possible that the entire Wagner Group in its present form is currently experiencing its demise on the Ukrainian battlefield. Because Prigozhin’s attempt to blackmail the military leadership has failed. He vocally threatened to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut due to a lack of munitions. The supplies never showed up, but Prigozhin remained. He apparently overplayed his hand.
Prigozhin and Kadyrov: Putin’s Enforcers
That does not change the fact, however, that this man has permanently altered Putin’s regime, just as the Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov before him.
Indeed, Prigozhin is frequently compared to Kadyrov: Both men have made blatant brutality a trademark. Both take care of Putin’s dirty work. Both are outsiders among the Russian elite. Both have contributed a fighting force to the attack on Ukraine – and have formed situational alliances.
But Kadyrov has an official post and a clearly defined region under his control. Prigozhin is formally a businessman, nothing more. On the other hand, though, he has a nose for politics. In a system where open debate and political wrangling no longer exist, he has brought them back with his vulgar slogans and macabre videos. He has linked the issue of munitions with attacks on the bureaucracy, on the elites in their villas (as though he weren’t one of them) and on an alleged "deep state" of pro-Western liberals in Moscow. It is a message that many in Russia are eager to hear.
Russian President Vladimir Putin together with Chechen leader Ramzan KadyrovFoto: Sven Simon / ullstein bildNothing illustrates that development more clearly than the sledgehammer story. In November 2022, Wagner mercenaries murdered a deserter in horrific fashion. As a prisoner of war in Ukraine, Yevgeniy Nushin had claimed to be a defector. He was handed back to his old unit after a prisoner exchange. To make an example of him, they bashed in his head in front of the camera. Prigozhin praised the clip for its "fantastic directing." The instrument of violence was not chosen at random: Back in 2017, Wagner mercenaries also used a sledgehammer to murder a Syrian, filming that scene as well.
Two months after the public murder of Nushin, Sergei Mironov, a prominent member of the Duma, Russia’s parliament, posed for photographs with an autographed sledgehammer presented to him by Prigozhin. "For S.M. Mironov from the PMC Wagner. Bakhmut – Soledar," read the inscription on the shaft, along with a smiley. "A useful instrument," joked Mironov.
Mironov is a typical product of the Putin system, a man who goes with the political winds. The parliamentary party he leads, A Just Russia – For Truth, has made sharp changes of course. It says a lot about the mood in the country when such a figure poses with a Wagner sledgehammer and there is hardly a peep from the public at large.
Some have begun comparing Prigozhin’s role with that of the Oprichniki, the bloodthirsty special core deployed by Ivan the Terrible to keep his elite in line. Their emblem was a dog’s head and a broom, which they used to cleanse the empire of traitors. Prigozhin has replaced the broom with a sledgehammer.
For now, Moscow’s elite is more fascinated by Prigozhin than afraid of him. "It's not like he walks the streets with a sledgehammer," says a former senior Kremlin official. "Prigozhin’s success has gone to his head, which is dangerous for him personally. He is still needed today, but tomorrow, they’ll tear his head off."
"We all lived through the 1990s, a time when there were also a number of nasty bandits," says one businessman. "If people are afraid, they are less fearful of Prigozhin than they are of the secret service and of Putin."
"Prigozhin has the role of a dog who barks at everybody and keeps the elite on their toes," says secret service expert Irina Borogan. "It’s clear that Putin quite likes it." She believes that Prigozhin is seeking a seat on the Security Council, side-by-side with Putin’s intelligence service partners – if for no other reason than for protection.
“It is clear that Prigozhin is thinking to a time beyond Putin."
Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya
After all, Prigozhin’s only powerbase thus far as been Putin’s goodwill. He hardly has any powerful allies, but no shortage of enemies. The fact that he still enjoyed Putin’s support until recently is clear: Nobody except Putin could have authorized the recruitment of mercenary fighters from the nation’s prison camps. But for how much longer will that support last? And might Putin ultimately see Prigozhin as a threat?
"I don’t think that Putin feels threatened by him. But it’s a similar situation to Kadyrov: The two present no danger to the regime only as long as Putin is still in power," says political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. "It is clear that Prigozhin is thinking to a time beyond Putin."
But Prigozhin might already represent a danger to Putin’s system, even in his weakest moments. It is evident that the videos he produced in Bakhmut were made out of desperation, calls for help addressed to a president to whom he has no direct access. Prigozhin attacks publicly because he is unable to get what he wants behind the scenes. But that, too, is a danger to the system.
"Prigozhin isn’t dangerous to the elite because of his sledgehammer. It's because he's the only big-name politician who says openly what people otherwise only whisper about among themselves," says the Moscow-based political expert Marina Litvinovich.
Wagner: The Forging of the Sledgehammer
It’s not easy to tell the story of Prigozhin’s mercenary army in retrospect because it is set in so many different places at the same time: in eastern Ukraine, Syria, Sudan, Mali, the penal colonies of the Urals and the cafe's of St. Petersburg.
Generally speaking, it is the story of an experiment that spun out of control. It began with the idea of establishing a mercenary operation to use force abroad but from which the Kremlin could distance itself. To delegate violence to an outsourcing specialist who had, as a caterer and service provider, already taken on a handful of other tasks on behalf of the Russian army. That was the first, successful phase of the experiment. Prigozhin’s mercenaries allowed the Kremlin to operate undercover in the Donbas, put boots on the ground in Syria and build a kind of low-cost empire in Africa.
But with Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the original idea was suddenly transformed into its opposite. That is the second phase of the experiment: The small group of professional fighters turned into an army of untrained prisoners. Casualties that the Kremlin wanted to hide suddenly became grisly videos of dead bodies on Telegram. The army’s erstwhile helper became its most vocal critic. The experiment spun out of control.
The story begins in St. Petersburg. Prigozhin’s headquarters can be found in a small, 18th century palace right on the banks of the Neva River at Lieutenant Schmidt Embankment 7. There is no company sign on the building and most city residents have no idea who has their offices here – even if the area hit the headlines not long ago. Just a couple of buildings down the road, the military blogger Maxim Fomin, aka Vladlen Tatarsky, was killed by an explosion. In a certain sense, the bomb also targeted Prigozhin: The café where Tatarsky died was once operated by Prigozhin before he gave it to the Cyber Front Z, a trolling group sponsored by the businessman and to which Tatarsky spoke that evening. Indeed, Tatarsky also received money through Prigozhin’s network.
St. Petersburg is Prigozhin’s hometown, just as it is Vladimir Putin's, even if their lives took dramatically different paths. Putin once worked for the Soviet secret service agency KGB, and the fall of the Soviet Union was traumatic for him. Prigozhin, by contrast, who is nine years younger, focused his attentions on robbing apartments and spent several years in a penal colony. For him, the Soviet collapse was a liberation. He was released from prison in 1990 and dove headfirst into the new world, initially selling hotdogs before then opening the city’s first fine dining establishment called the Old Customs House. He got to know Putin’s bodyguard Viktor Zolotov and benefited from Putin’s rise. The media began referring to him as "Putin’s chef," even though Putin rarely visited his restaurants and Prigozhin wasn't a cook.
"Shoigu’s caterer" would have been the more fitting moniker. Prigozhin’s wealth came from huge state contracts, including supplying the vast Russian army with food starting in 2012. He even built and operated entire garrisons.
In parallel, he also constructed a gigantic media empire, including his own newswire. He also produced cheap movies and had plenty of money to influence public opinion on social media.
Because Prigozhin already provided services to the army, the founding of a mercenary company was, from a business standpoint, simply an expansion of his portfolio. With the small difference that mercenary companies were, and still are, illegal in Russia. For that reason, Prigozhin consistently denied being behind the Wagner Group prior to the invasion of Ukraine, even disclaiming its very existence. That is no longer necessary: In November, he celebrated the opening of a Wagner Center in eastern St. Petersburg, a high-rise office building where he offers space to patriotic bloggers and drone builders. The façade of the building reads "PMC Wagner Center" in large letters in Russian. PMC is the abbreviation for "private military company."
"I conceived PMC Wagner. I lead PMC Wagner. I have always financed PMC Wagner," Prigozhin announced in January. It was only in 2022, he has said, that he "naturally had to find new funding sources."
Among those who were around during the early days of the Wagner Group and who are familiar with Prigozhin’s headquarters on the Neva from the inside is Marat Gabidullin, a former mercenary with a sun-tanned, thoughtful face.
"Prigozhin believes that God himself gave him the right to lead people, earn vast quantities of money and be an important person. And he is 100 percent convinced that all of his decisions are correct. He knows no limits," Gabidullin says in a video call from his apartment in the South of France. He has left Russia and written a book about the time he spent as a member of the Wagner Group.
Gabidullin's story is one of gradual disillusionment.
His nom-de-guerre was "Grandpa." He was already in his late 40s when he joined the mercenary army in 2015 – a former airborne officer with a penchant for drink and a conviction for murder. The demand for irregular troops was significant at the time: Following the Euromaidan Revolution in Kyiv, Russia had annexed the Crimea and launched a war in eastern Ukraine, but the Kremlin was interested in covering up its involvement. When possible, Russia’s leaders preferred sending in volunteers, Cossacks, mercenaries and militias.
On April 1, 2015, Gabidullin got a job with Evro Polis, a company belonging to Prigozhin. The unit’s training camp was located in Molkino, right next to a base belonging to GRU, the military intelligence service. That made it abundantly clear that Prigozhin was operating with permission from on high. Gabidullin was ultimately sent to the Donbas.
Prigozhin’s troops have been in the eastern Ukrainian industrial region since 2014, not just fighting against the Ukrainian army, but also against pro-Russian rebels when they showed signs of getting out of control. There are rumors circulating that the Wagner Group has eliminated several separatist leaders over the years. According to Gabidullin, the mercenaries surrounded and disarmed the Odessa Battalion, among others. The relationship with local militia units was tense. Initially, though, all that took place in secret.
It was Putin’s military intervention in Syria that launched the Wagner Group into the public spotlight. The fighting force was unofficially called "Wagner," after the nom de guerre of its commander Dmitry Utkin, a former Spetsnaz officer with a penchant for Nazi symbols and SS tattoos on his chest.
In contrast to the Donbas, Russia’s leadership didn’t want to cover up its involvement in Syria, but it did want to minimize official casualties. Russia sent in its air force to help the country’s dictator, Bashar Assad, cling to power, but Moscow didn’t want to get involved on the ground. Prigozhin’s mercenaries were intended to provide a bit of assistance.
It put Gabidullin and his comrades somewhere between Russia and Syria. They were fighting on the ground with Russian equipment, but they were under contract to Syrian business leaders. When they found success, such as in 2016 with the first storming of Palmyra, others would take credit. But when they died, even that could be disclaimed. In early February 2018, during an attack on a natural gas field east of the Euphrates, Gabidullin and his comrades came under fire from American troops. According to leaked Wagner Group documents, 80 Russian mercenaries died in the incident. Gabidullin believes the number was closer to 100. They were essentially victims of the distance that Moscow wanted to maintain from Wagner. The regular Russian army did nothing to try to prevent the disaster, even though they had been warned by the U.S. After all, the troops didn’t formally belong to the Russian military.
Gabidullin left the group in 2019. "When I joined Wagner, it was still a mercenary force. But then, Wagner became a slave army," he says bitterly. He estimates that it had grown by then to between 2,500 and 3,000 fighters.
The Wagner Group became so well-known due to its activities in Syria that denying its existence became increasingly untenable and absurd. When the Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar met in February 2018 with Defense Minister Shoigu in Moscow, Prigozhin could also be seen in the background. Officially, he was just in charge of serving lunch that day.
But the press photos from Haftar’s delegation make it clear that Prigozhin was at the table for the negotiations – that "Putin’s chef" was nowhere near the kitchen. The Kremlin, after all, needed him, especially in Africa. Almost three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin wanted to demonstrate Russia’s return to the African continent, but with cheaper means. Prigozhin helped him do so.
Africa: Where Wagner Achieved Power and Wealth
The country where Wagner’s expansion to the African continent began was Sudan, of all places. From here, they spread to more than a dozen other countries on the continent, frequently following the same script: Weakened autocrat needs help and is willing to pay with access to raw materials.
It is therefore no coincidence that on April 20, 2023, Prigozhin published an open letter to the two conflict parties in Sudan who have been openly waging war against each other for the past couple of weeks – the regular army on one side and the Rapid Support Forces on the other. In the letter, Prigozhin offered his services as a mediator. He has, he wrote, "long had ties" with the country and has "spoken with all decision-makers in the Republic of the Sudan." And that likely wasn’t an exaggeration.
Back in 2017, Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir presented his country to the Russians as the "key to Africa" in a meeting with Putin at the Russian president’s Black Sea residence in Sochi. The Kremlin was interested in returning to the continent following decades of inactivity there, and also wanted a naval base on the Red Sea. The internationally isolated al-Bashir, meanwhile, was looking for help free of onerous conditions.
Following al-Bashir’s meeting with Putin, the Sudanese signed a contract with M Invest, a company from Prigozhin’s empire, giving it a concession for gold prospecting. Prigozhin sent in geologists, minerologists, trainers and weapons, and launched a disinformation campaign.
The deal – gold in exchange for holding onto power – soon failed. Following a wave of protests in the country, al-Bashir was overthrown by his own military on April 11, 2019. A week prior to the putsch, Prigozhin would later say, he had personally warned al-Bashir in Khartoum of "an apocalyptic scenario" if he didn’t "take consequences." What he meant by "consequences" became clear through a leak: Prigozhin’s advisers had provided a few ideas for how the dictator could bring the protests to an end, with the suggestions ranging from denouncing the opposition as "enemies of Islam and traditional values" to public executions.
The cooperation between Prigozhin and the rulers in Khartoum survived the fall of dictator al-Bashir and a further putsch in 2021. New military deals were signed with Russia. Moscow officials have close ties to both generals in senior leadership: General Burhan and General Daglo, known as Hemeti.
The cooperation with RSF leader Hemeti was of particular interest for Prigozhin. The general controls the vast goldmines in Darfur and South Kordofan and is involved in smuggling gold abroad. Prigozhin’s company delivered weapons to Hemeti’s RSF troops and received access to the gold trade in return, with the gold being smuggled out of the country onboard Russian aircraft. The U.S. broadcaster CNN was able to identify at least 16 such flights from early 2021 to mid-2022. Wagner is also thought to be involved in uranium mining in the country.
In the most recent power struggle between Burhan and Hemeti, Moscow has officially declined to take sides. Prigozhin, for his part, has offered his services as a mediator, but has also reportedly delivered shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles to Hemeti’s RSF troops. Whether Prigozhin’s mercenaries are also involved in the fighting is unclear. Prigozhin claims that Wagner forces haven’t been in the country for the last two years.
If Sudan was the "key to Africa" for Prigozhin, then the neighboring Central African Republic has become his primary base. Nowhere else can Wagner Group forces feel as at home as here. They have managed to accomplish what experts refer to as "state capture," the almost complete infiltration of all state functions.
Russian soft and hard power found ideal conditions in the country. A civil war has been raging since 2012 and the power vacuum grew even larger in 2016, when the former colonial power of France brought its military intervention to an end. A UN mission failed to provide much help. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra ultimately turned to Moscow, with the Russians officially sending trainers in 2018, in addition to light weapons for the army.
The trainers were Wagner mercenaries who got involved in the fighting themselves. In December 2020, they stopped a rebel advance on the capital, a success that Prigozhin’s people quickly turned into an action film that had its premiere in May 2021 in the stadium of Bangui, the country’s capital. They managed to keep President Touadéra in office and were able to take back large towns and main traffic arterials. Before long, they provided the presidential guard and Touadéra’s senior security advisers.
Prigozhin’s people have a say in passing laws and installing or deposing politicians. Sometimes, Wagner mercenaries even directly collect customs payments at the country’s borders. Prigozhin’s people organize cultural events in the country and operate a radio station. Since 2019, Russian has been taught in the country’s schools.
And just as in Sudan, Prigozhin’s companies have gained access to natural resources in the Central African Republic, including diamond and gold mines, but also to tropical hardwoods. As DER SPIEGEL recently reported together with its partners from the investigative network European Investigative Collaborations and the non-governmental organization All Eyes on Wagner, the mercenary group relies on a convoluted maze of companies to do so, with names like Lobaye Invest, Diamville and Bois Rouge.
French President Emmanuel Macron has referred to Touadéra as a "hostage of the Wagner Group," and France suspended military and financial aid to the country in 2021. Russia – with Prigozhin’s help – succeeded in driving the former colonial power of France out of the country. This pattern would be frequently repeated, most obviously in Mali.
Wagner Group mercenaries have been active in that country since 2021 at the invitation of the governing putschists, with their number estimated at between 1,000 and 1,600. They have far less influence on the government here than in the Central African Republic, but they have introduced a new severity and ruthlessness into the conflict, in which both Germany and France have been unsuccessfully engaged for years. In March 2022, Wagner mercenaries fighting alongside the Malian army killed more than 300 people in Moura, many of them civilians.
The Russians are allegedly helping the government fight Islamist terrorism. "The Russians have an extremely broad definition of what a jihadi is. Sometimes, pants ending above the ankle is enough," a high-ranking European military officer told DER SPIEGEL. The security situation in the country, meanwhile, hasn’t improved. But the Wagner Group has been able to celebrate a different victory: In August 2022, the last French soldier left the country, marking the end of an almost decade-long military intervention by the former colonial power.
The future of the UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA is also in question. Britain, Egypt and Germany have all announced their intention to pull out their troops.
The Wagner Group’s real success in Africa, says Samuel Ramani of the British think tank Rusi, has not been of a military nature, but in the manner in which they have been able to push through their own interests and in the effect it has had on Russia’s image. A PR victory. "They’ve been very good at 'state capture,' autocracy promotion and advertising Russia’s brand continent-wide," Ramani says. "But they haven’t done very well at fighting terrorism and extremism, which is what they claimed they’re seeking to do."
Ukraine: How Prigozhin Recruited His Army of Prisoners
When Russian troops marched into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Prigozhin’s mercenaries were not part of the invading army. On social media channels, Wagner Group recruiters turned away those seeking to fight in Ukraine. "Boys, it’s business as usual, no changes. Africa hasn’t vanished from the face of the earth."
All that Prigozhin could do was to write enthusiastic commentaries for his news agency Ria Fan. "Our military columns are driving through the streets of the almost liberated city of Kharkiv, the Nazis in Kyiv are completely surrounded," he enthused on February 27, comparing the "jeweler-like" tactics of the Russian military to "micro-surgery." It wasn't just Vladimir Putin and the Russian Defense Ministry who suffered in early 2022 under the delusion of a rapid victory. Prigozhin, who today is so heavily critical of the army leadership, did as well.
It would take almost an entire month before his troops also entered the war in Ukraine, fighting their first battle on March 3 near Popasna in the Donbas region. The mercenaries were able to take the town in time for May 9, the day Russia celebrates its World War II victory over the Nazis. And it proved to be a triumph for the Wagner Group – not just over the Ukrainians but also over the Russian competition. The regular army, after all, had been forced to break off its advance on Kyiv and was only making slow progress in the Donbas. A short time later, Prigozhin was awarded the country’s highest honor "Hero of the Russian Federation." It was apparently his reward for his victory in Popasna. The order from Putin granting the award remains confidential, but the medal itself is not. In August, if not before, Prigozhin appeared in public wearing the golden star on his chest.
But the real reward from Putin is more valuable than the golden star – it is one that has lifted Prigozhin far above his competitors and far above the Russian legal system: It is his license to recruit fighters from Russian penal colonies. Starting in summer 2022, Prigozhin began touring the country’s prisons to personally recruit convicts. After all, he was familiar with the camps. His recruitment trips began in June at the latest, but it was only in September that a video of him in a colony in the European-Russian republic of Mordovia appeared. It shows Prigozhin standing in front of men dressed in black prisoner garb introducing himself as a representative of the "private military company Wagner."
"I will take you along alive. But I won’t bring you all back alive," he says in the video. His promise: No matter what happened, nobody would return to a prison camp. Those who survived would be pardoned. And those who deserted would be shot.
Even for Russia, it was a bizarre turn, one which made Prigozhin the master of life and death, freedom and bondage. It violates the logic upon which any state – even a dictatorship of the kind created by Putin – is based. It devalues the judiciary. "Why continue to investigate and pass judgment when someone like Prigozhin can come along and simply take the convicts with him?" wonders activist Vladimir Ossetchkin, who promotes prisoner rights. It also devalues military service: Fighting for one’s land suddenly becomes a penalty rather than an honor. And, in the eyes of more experienced Wagner mercenaries, it harms their own fighting machine. "When I heard about it, it was immediately clear to me: That’ll be a fuck up," Andrei Medvedev, a Wagner mercenary who fled to Norway, recalled in a conversation with DER SPIEGEL. He was fighting near Bakhmut when the first of the prisoners arrived and says that their missions immediately became more reckless. "Human life no longer mattered."
For Prigozhin, though, the recruitment of prisoners solved a problem: Mercenary troops aren’t made for wars between large, modern armies. Prigozhin needed the few thousand professionals on his rolls in Africa. He didn’t want to sacrifice them in Bakhmut.
Putin, on the other hand, wanted to rapidly fill the gaps in the Russian lines without asking the Russian populace to make even greater sacrifices. He had promised in March that he wouldn’t send conscripts or reserve soldiers into battle. The war was still supposed to be a mere "special military operation." Addressing Russian society, Prigozhin said: "It’s either prisoners or your children. You decide."
It's not entirely clear how many prisoners he ultimately recruited. Vladimir Ossetchkin estimates the 2022 total to be several tens of thousands. The highest estimates hold that 50,000 men were recruited from prison camps throughout the year.
Vladislav, 26, is one of the men who was recruited in a penal camp by Prigozhin himself. He tells his story as a Russian prisoner of war, sitting in a basement room of the Ukrainian military secret service agency HUR in Kyiv. His face is concealed by a mask.
Vladislav was doing time for aggravated assault in Colony IK-6 in Samara when, as he describes it, the camp began preparing for a prominent visitor. The mobile phones that the prisoners could use in secret suddenly stopped working. Guards had to turn in their radios. Surveillance cameras were dismantled.
On September 27, 2022, Vladislav says, Prigozhin’s helicopter landed directly on the camp premises before he then held a speech before the roughly 1,000 prisoners on the mustering ground, with senior officials from the Russian penitentiary authority at his side. "He said: 'I can get every one of you out of here, no matter what your sentence is. You’ll be free after half a year. You will be fighting on the second line against Nazis.'" Prigozhin, says Vladislav, then explicitly said that he preferred murderers for the task, especially those who had killed more than once. Pay was to be 200,000 to 240,000 rubles, the equivalent of between 2,400 and 2,900 euros.
Vladislav had never before heard of Prigozhin or his Wagner Group. He only had another year to serve, but he was attracted by the promise that his criminal record would be wiped clean. "I could start over again from the beginning, find work, travel out of the country," he says. He immediately volunteered, without even asking his wife – the telephones didn't work anyway. Just over three weeks later, Vladislav was already at the front, not far from Lysychansk.
It was pure hell. He was ordered on five separate occasions to storm enemy positions, he says, and had to defend freshly conquered positions in the meantime. Suddenly, nobody was talking any longer about fighting on the second line.
In the first attack he took part in, he says, one-third of the 60 fighters who headed out before him were badly wounded. "The rest were 200s," he says, using Russian jargon for fatalities. Two men had refused to advance any further, he says, and were "reset to zero" by the commander himself upon their return. That meant: shot to death.
Vladislav was surrounded and wounded, but he managed to make it back. After two days in the hospital, he had to go into battle once again. The fifth advance, again with heavy losses, would be his last.
Other Wagner prisoners of war with whom DER SPIEGEL spoke have similar stories to tell: Recruitment in penal colonies, transfer to the Rostov region near the Ukrainian border, training near the frontlines in the Donbas. Each fighter received a six-digit metal tag with the letter K (for "Project K") and a combat name, which was automatically generated by a computer. Discipline was tight, with desertion, stealing, drinking and drug use all punishable by death. The penalties were carried out by the Wagner Group’s own security service, feared for its brutality. "I saw with my own eyes what they are capable of," says Vladislav, though he didn’t want to say what it was. Even in Ukrainian captivity, his fear remained.
The longer the war lasted and the more prominent Prigozhin became, the louder his critique grew of Russia’s military leaders. In September, the Russian army made a hasty withdrawal from the Kharkiv region; and in November, a more orderly one from Kherson. For a time, it seemed as though Prigozhin was the only one capable of delivering battlefield successes. In early January, his men managed to take control of Soledar, a town neighboring Bakhmut.
But in the detailed victory announcement released by the Russian Defense Ministry, the Wagner Group wasn’t mentioned even once. Only several hours later, a "clarification" was reluctantly added, noting that the "immediate assault" on the city came thanks to "the volunteers from PMC Wagner." Another three months would pass before the army spokesman would again utter the word Wagner.
Already in December, Wagner men had released a video in which they called Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov a "faggot" because they hadn’t received the munitions they needed. In Russian prison parlance, that was a deadly insult, and an apology was apparently demanded of Prigozhin before the munitions question would be resolved. That, at least, is what he said in February, asking indignantly: "Apologize to whom? Confess to whom? One-hundred-forty million Russians, please tell me who should I apologize to so that my guys die half as many times?"
It isn’t clear where exactly Putin stands in the conflict. Last summer, he backed Prigozhin and allowed him to tour the country’s prison camps recruiting fighters. And as recently as October, he created a new command structure for the invading army and placed a Prigozhin ally, General Sergei Surovikin, at the top.
But in January, Putin reversed his decision and swapped out Surovikin with Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov. U.S. military expert Dara Massicot described the move on Twitter as "demoting their most competent senior commander and replacing him with an incompetent one."
"Putin decided at the time that Prigozhin had to integrate himself into the plans of the General Staff," says political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. But the Wagner Group was not disbanded. It even became known that the son of Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press spokesman, had joined the Wagner Group – though not as a bit of cannon fodder like the prisoners, but as an artilleryman.
In mid-February, a video found its way onto the internet showing Wagner fighters using a picture of Gerasimov as a target. On February 22, Prigozhin even published an internal document, including a list of munitions, on the internet. The infighting within the Russian army could suddenly be followed on Telegram.
That same day, a meeting was apparently held between Putin, Defense Minister Shoigu and Prigozhin – at least according to a U.S. intelligence memo leaked by a U.S. soldier on the platform Discord.
But the dispute has continued. Prigozhin may be louder, but the army has far more leverage. They can cut off his munitions supplies at any time, and they have also apparently taken away his ability to recruit prisoners. Prigozhin has said that he hasn’t been able to recruit in Russia’s prison camps since February. The Defense Ministry now reserves that privilege for itself.
For the prisoners, that has meant that they are no longer subject to the brutal discipline imposed by the Wagner Group and its security service. But the inhumane system has remained. It's just operated by someone else now.
The Dead: What Remains of Prigozhin
On the search for what will one day remain of Prigozhin in Russia, the village of Bakinskaya is a good place to start. On a recent Sunday morning, the fresh graves of Wagner Group members can be seen from afar, row upon row upon row. On each grave is a plastic floral arrangement in black, yellow and red in the shape of the Wagner emblem, complete with golden stars glittering in the morning sunlight.
The graveyard is located less than 10 kilometers from the neighboring village of Molkino, where the Wagner Group operates a training center. A chapel belonging to the group is also nearby, which is the reason why the tiny village of Bakinskaya is home to a vast cemetery of fighters: DER SPIEGEL counted 45 rows during a visit in early April, more than 600 graves bedecked with Wagner wreaths – 12 times as many as just three months earlier. And they keep coming: A filthy truck with Rostov license plates is standing on the gravel path that runs through the middle of the cemetery, four zinc coffins lined up on its bed, each covered in red cloth. A small digger is excavating in the damp earth, with the workers then carrying the first casket to the new grave. No priest is present.
The graves are bedecked with a simple Orthodox cross or a wooden marker meant to recall an Islamic headstone, each with a name, birthdate and date of death. There is the convicted murderer Roman Tokarev, 30, from the Belgorod region. Alexandr Gavrilov, 23, from Rostov-on-Don, who had been sentenced to seven years for dealing drugs. Their paths led them from Russia’s penal colonies via Ukraine to a village where nobody knows them and where some would rather not have them.
DER SPIEGEL contacted more than 40 family members of Wagner fighters buried in Bakinskaya, but very few were interested in speaking. One of those who did agree to an interview was Larissa, the aunt of Andrei Kargin, 22, who was imprisoned in a penal camp in Volgograd for repeated theft. "He called me and said: I’m going to war on September 30," Larissa says. Six weeks later, he was dead – she received the news over the phone from a Wagner commander. But she was left to find out herself where her nephew’s body was buried. She searched for months, until someone finally sent her a photo of his grave in faraway Bakinskaya. A death certificate still hasn’t been issued, and she doesn’t know why. "They sent Andrushka and all the other prisoners into the meat grinder and turned them into hash."
It isn’t clear how many Wagner fighters have already died in the conflict. The BBC and the Russian outlet Mediazona have reliably established the identities of 3,621 dead prisoners, but that is just a fraction of the real number. Across Russia and in the occupied regions of Ukraine, there are seven devoted Wagner cemeteries, in addition to the uncounted Wagner graves in other cemeteries. In the Krasnodar region alone, DER SPIEGEL found four other cemeteries with fresh graves bearing Wagner wreaths.
Yevgeny Prigozhin visited the cemetery in Bakinskaya in early April, and that is also documented by video. In it, he is wearing his usual military jacket, one of his favorite sayings on the sleeve, a macabre rhyme in Russian: "Cargo 200 – we stay together.” Cargo 200 are the fallen. Prigozhin scans the fresh graves he has left behind, a satisfied look on his face. "Yes, the cemetery is growing,” he says. "Those who fight sometimes die. That’s how life is.” He then continues on his way. The war is calling.
U.S. President Joe Biden, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visit the Itsukushima Shrine on Miyajima Island in Hatsukaichi, Japan. Kenny Holston/Pool/Editing by Germán & CoG7 urged to phase out fossil fuels by Netherlands, Chile, others
The leaders of seven nations, including the Netherlands and Chile, have stated that the Group of Seven rich countries must take the initiative in gradually phasing out fossil fuels to create momentum for a worldwide agreement this year.
REUTERS By Kate Abnett, EDITING BY Germán & CoBRUSSELS, May 19 (Reuters) - Group of Seven rich nations must take the lead in phasing out fossil fuels, the leaders of seven countries including The Netherlands and Chile have said, attempting to build momentum for a global deal this year to gradually quit oil, coal and gas.
Countries including the 27-member European Union are hoping all nations will agree at this year's U.N. climate talks to phase out the fossil fuel consumption causing climate change - reviving an idea that gathered some support at last year's climate talks, but was blocked by oil- and gas-rich countries.
A meeting of G7 leaders in Hiroshima, Japan, which began on Friday, is seen as a test of the appetite among the world's advanced economies to do this.
In a letter to G7 leaders, dated May 18 and seen by Reuters, presidents and prime ministers from seven nations urged them to lead the push for a fossil fuel phaseout deal.
"We must bring the fossil fuel era to an end and phase out fossil fuels. We call on you to take the lead and work with us to agree this at COP28," the letter said, referring to this year's COP28 climate summit, which begins on Nov. 30 in Dubai.
It was also signed by the leaders of New Zealand, plus the Marshall Islands, Palau, Saint Lucia and Vanuatu - four small island states whose vulnerability to climate change has seen them hold outsized political influence in past U.N. talks.
The countries said the G7 should also support efforts to develop new global targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency.
G7 countries' climate ministers agreed last month - for the first time - to accelerate "the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels". It is not clear if their leaders will follow suit.
Other countries have signalled a will to allow the continued use of fossil fuels.
The United Arab Emirates' incoming COP28 president, Sultan al-Jaber, this month urged countries to focus on "phasing out fossil fuel emissions". That could allow countries to keep using fossil fuels, while using technologies to capture the CO2 emissions that result from burning them.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country
…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Friday Briefing
The U.S. debt limit nears/Balancing the U.S. budget for Ukraine aid
The Pentagon has significantly reduced its estimate of the value of weapons it has sent to Ukraine, freeing up at least $3 billion to supply Ukrainian troops with arms. The calculation comes as the Biden administration has faced intensifying pressure to explain how it intended to continue supporting Ukraine without asking Congress to replenish its budget.
Pentagon and State Department officials yesterday told congressional staff members that they had discovered an accounting issue that could make more resources available before Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive this summer. They had realized their mistake almost two months ago, a senior White House official said.
Instead of placating Congress’s concerns, the revelation was met with frustration and anger, as some lawmakers criticized the Biden administration for what they said was an extremely troublesome error. They called on the administration to “make up for this precious lost time” by sending long-range missiles and cluster munitions to Ukraine, a move that the administration has resisted doing.
The end of al-Assad’s isolation?
In the months since a devastating earthquake struck Turkey and Syria, Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, has made a remarkable comeback, going from years of near-total global isolation to a welcome back into the Arab fold with virtually no strings attached. He is today expected to attend an annual summit of Arab leaders for the first time in 13 years.
Assad was shunned for brutally suppressing in 2011 his country’s Arab Spring uprising, which morphed into a grinding civil war. His government stands accused of widespread torture, the use of chemical weapons against its own people and forced population transfers in a conflict that has left hundreds of thousands of people dead.
The Biden administration has made it clear that the U.S. has no plans to re-establish relations with Syria, and Human Rights Watch has urged the Arab countries normalizing ties with the Assad government to at least push for accountability and reforms. Syria’s government is still subject to Western sanctions, but al-Assad does not appear to have paid a heavy price for readmission into the Arab League of leaders.
Repercussions: Analysts said the Syrian war helped set the stage for what the world is now witnessing in Ukraine. The survival of al-Assad’s regime came in large part because of extensive military support from Vladimir Putin, the Russian president. But Russia was never held accountable for the attacks it carried out in Syria, including the targeting of hospitals.
News round-up, May 18, 2023
Editorial…
The abbey of environmental groups in conflict with the harsh realities of millions of people is complex and challenging.
Maintaining a balance between preserving the environment and making sure that people have access to the resources they require to survive is difficult.
Why Greta Thunberg and Other Climate Activists Are Protesting Wind Farms in Norway…
“The scene in downtown Oslo this week is hardly unusual in the era of climate protest: chained to doorways and bundled up in thick blankets, Greta Thunberg and dozens of other young activists are blocking the entrance to Norway’s energy and finance ministries to challenge government climate policy. But this time, their target may surprise you: wind farms.”
TIME BY CIARA NUGENT, FEBRUARY 28, 2023 Climate Activists Have a New Target: Civilians…
“We don’t want them to think that they can buy a big car and just enjoy their life and ignore what’s going on in the world,” Claude explained to me. He and his two accomplices gave false names as a condition of allowing me to observe their nighttime expedition. The vehicles weren’t damaged, but they’d need a refill or a tire change. Before he left, Claude stuck a leaflet to the windscreen saying, in French: “Don’t take it personally. You are not our target, it’s your car.”
POLITICO EU BY KARL MATHIESEN, MAY 2, 2023 Burning Man Becomes Latest Adversary in Geothermal Feud
“Festival organizers are trying to block plans to build a clean energy plant in the Nevada desert, highlighting the struggle to combat climate change and the cost of clean power.
NYT BY ARIELLE PAUL, MAY 17, 2023 By Germán & Co, May 18,2023 Life is indeed a complex journey with many twists and turns that can both bring joy and sorrow. It is these challenges that test our resilience and ability to adapt. Unfortunately, our world and humans are not immune to disasters, whether they be natural or man-made. Pollution, for example, can have devastating effects on our environment and health, while the actions of those who disregard basic moral principles can cause harm to others. One of the most recent challenges is the SARC-2 virus, which has disrupted our daily life.
The SARC-2 virus has had a significant influence on our emotional health since it has pushed us to give up physical contact and rely solely on digital communication.
Human beings have always been praised for their ability to adapt to change quickly, and it's not hard to see why. This unknown time has been a cruel change, as human contact is essential to nourish our souls. Unfortunately, the virus has also had a devastating effect on the global economy. The pandemic has caused a shortage of essential goods, which has triggered a dangerous inflationary spiral. And just when we thought things couldn't get any worse, Russia's invasion of Ukraine further destabilized the economy by disrupting the fossil fuel market.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia severely weakened the economy by causing a disruption in the fossil fuel industry.
So, that times have been demanding since the pandemic hit, and now with the added stress of the Ukraine war, seeing how some people struggle to meet their basic needs is heart-breaking. It's not easy when you need a lot of money product to inflation —that you don't have it—to buy the essentials like bread, tortillas, and rice. It's even worse when you can't afford to pay your electricity bill or rent, and you're forced to be homeless, exposed to the elements. Sadly, even retirees in wealthy countries must rummage through garbage containers to survive. It's a shame that so few people are speaking out against this injustice.
Of course, without any doubt, climate change is a fundamental issue. As someone deeply concerned about the effects of climate change, it is essential to have open and —honest, realistic, scientific, and human discussions— about the subject is our duty to place as much importance and care into looking out for the welfare of our neighbour’s as we do in safeguarding the environment. We must be careful that what we do doesn't hurt others around us. After all, When there are no humans on the globe, what use is it to have a healthy planet?
Unfortunately, the environmental movement can sometimes use —wrong—information and misleading narratives to sway people's emotions instead of simply presenting the facts. While must we recognize that some of these groups may have begun with good intentions, it takes time to determine their impartiality as they grow into massive corporations with significant wealth and well-compensated staff.
Now, while millions of people try to cope with this challenging situation, especially in Europe, like the rest of the world, on the one hand, politicians try to find urgent solutions to supply the fuel that no longer comes from Russia, on the other hand, by exploring many new and environmentally friendly sources of energy. It's a tricky situation that we can overcome with determination and cooperation. Unfortunately, some environmental groups are more interested in pushing their agenda than helping those in need. These groups have inhumanely boycotted projects vital to the current electricity industry, causing further hardship for those already struggling.
Most read…
An Untested Oil Price Cap Has Helped Choke Revenue to Russia
Group of 7 leaders are prepared to celebrate the results of a novel effort to stabilize global oil markets and punish Moscow.
NYT BY JIM MAY 18, 2023 Carbon Accounting Changes Could Lift Corporate Greenhouse-Gas Emissions
Some multinationals might be underestimating their emissions by close to 50% under current rules
WSJ BY DIETER HOLGER, MAY 18, 2023 The EU should start planning now for Russia after Putin
Political destabilisation could lead to armed conflict within Russia itself. There must be a strategy to contain the fallou
POLITICO EU ALEXANDER CLARKSON AND KIRILL SHAMIEV, TODAY Why the U.S. is so bad at building clean energy, in 3 charts
As Congress battles over the debt ceiling and permitting reform, here’s what’s at stake
WP BY SHANNON OSAKA, CLIMATE ZEITGEIST REPORTER, MAY 18, 2023 Image by Germán & Co Editorial…
Image: by Germán & CoThe abbey of environmental groups in conflict with the harsh realities of millions of people is complex and challenging.
Maintaining a balance between preserving the environment and making sure that people have access to the resources they require to survive is difficult.
Why Greta Thunberg and Other Climate Activists Are Protesting Wind Farms in Norway…
“The scene in downtown Oslo this week is hardly unusual in the era of climate protest: chained to doorways and bundled up in thick blankets, Greta Thunberg and dozens of other young activists are blocking the entrance to Norway’s energy and finance ministries to challenge government climate policy. But this time, their target may surprise you: wind farms.”
TIME BY CIARA NUGENT, FEBRUARY 28, 2023
Climate Activists Have a New Target: Civilians…
“We don’t want them to think that they can buy a big car and just enjoy their life and ignore what’s going on in the world,” Claude explained to me. He and his two accomplices gave false names as a condition of allowing me to observe their nighttime expedition. The vehicles weren’t damaged, but they’d need a refill or a tire change. Before he left, Claude stuck a leaflet to the windscreen saying, in French: “Don’t take it personally. You are not our target, it’s your car.”
POLITICO EU BY KARL MATHIESEN, MAY 2, 2023
Burning Man Becomes Latest Adversary in Geothermal Feud
“Festival organizers are trying to block plans to build a clean energy plant in the Nevada desert, highlighting the struggle to combat climate change and the cost of clean power.
NYT By Arielle Paul, May 17, 2023By Germán & Co, May 18,2023
Life is indeed a complex journey with many twists and turns that can both bring joy and sorrow. It is these challenges that test our resilience and ability to adapt. Unfortunately, our world and humans are not immune to disasters, whether they be natural or man-made. Pollution, for example, can have devastating effects on our environment and health, while the actions of those who disregard basic moral principles can cause harm to others. One of the most recent challenges is the SARC-2 virus, which has disrupted our daily life.
The SARC-2 virus has had a significant influence on our emotional health since it has pushed us to give up physical contact and rely solely on digital communication.
Human beings have always been praised for their ability to adapt to change quickly, and it's not hard to see why. This unknown time has been a cruel change, as human contact is essential to nourish our souls. Unfortunately, the virus has also had a devastating effect on the global economy. The pandemic has caused a shortage of essential goods, which has triggered a dangerous inflationary spiral. And just when we thought things couldn't get any worse, Russia's invasion of Ukraine further destabilized the economy by disrupting the fossil fuel market.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia severely weakened the economy by causing a disruption in the fossil fuel industry.
So, that times have been demanding since the pandemic hit, and now with the added stress of the Ukraine war, seeing how some people struggle to meet their basic needs is heart-breaking. It's not easy when you need a lot of money product to inflation —that you don't have it—to buy the essentials like bread, tortillas, and rice. It's even worse when you can't afford to pay your electricity bill or rent, and you're forced to be homeless, exposed to the elements. Sadly, even retirees in wealthy countries must rummage through garbage containers to survive. It's a shame that so few people are speaking out against this injustice.
Of course, without any doubt, climate change is a fundamental issue. As someone deeply concerned about the effects of climate change, it is essential to have open and —honest, realistic, scientific, and human discussions— about the subject is our duty to place as much importance and care into looking out for the welfare of our neighbour’s as we do in safeguarding the environment. We must be careful that what we do doesn't hurt others around us. After all, When there are no humans on the globe, what use is it to have a healthy planet?
Unfortunately, the environmental movement can sometimes use —wrong—information and misleading narratives to sway people's emotions instead of simply presenting the facts. While must we recognize that some of these groups may have begun with good intentions, it takes time to determine their impartiality as they grow into massive corporations with significant wealth and well-compensated staff.
Now, while millions of people try to cope with this challenging situation, especially in Europe, like the rest of the world, on the one hand, politicians try to find urgent solutions to supply the fuel that no longer comes from Russia, on the other hand, by exploring many new and environmentally friendly sources of energy. It's a tricky situation that we can overcome with determination and cooperation. Unfortunately, some environmental groups are more interested in pushing their agenda than helping those in need. These groups have inhumanely boycotted projects vital to the current electricity industry, causing further hardship for those already struggling.
Source NYT/Editing by Germán & CoBurning Man Becomes Latest Adversary in Geothermal Feud…
NYT By Arielle Paul, May 17, 2023One of the darkest towns in America lies roughly 100 miles north of Reno, where the lights are few and rarely lit until one week each summer when pyrotechnics and LEDs set the sky and mountains aglow.
In tiny Gerlach, just outside the Black Rock Desert in Nevada, residents have watched the Burning Man festival grow over the last 30 years to a spectacle of nearly 80,000 countercultural hippies and tech billionaires, offering an economic lifeline for the unincorporated town. Now, Burning Man and Gerlach are more tightly aligned, joining conservationists and a Native American tribe in an alliance against a powerful adversary: Ormat Technology, the largest geothermal power company in the country.
Both Burning Man and Ormat share a vision for a greener future, yet neither can agree on the road to get there.
The festival promotes self-reliance and leaving no trace of its ephemeral metropolis, yet it contributes an enormous carbon footprint; the power company is vested in the future by battling climate change, but its clean energy facilities pose a threat to local habitats while reaping a sizable profit.
The dilemma has complicated similar projects worldwide, underscoring the tension between the need to combat climate change and the cost of doing so using clean power. In the effort for a sustainable future, what compromises must be made?
Experts say the answer comes down to the No. 1 rule in real estate: location, location, location.
“Devil’s in the details with the exact spot,” said Shaaron Netherton, the executive director of Friends of Nevada Wilderness. The organization has joined in a lawsuit to block Ormat’s project, which would explore potential geothermal resources in Gerlach.
Several Ormat initiatives have stalled or been forced to relocate amid concerns about potential threats to endangered species like the bleached sandhill skipper, a rare butterfly; populations of sage-grouse; the steamboat buckwheat; and, most recently, the Dixie Valley toad.
Opponents of Ormat’s project plans in Dixie Valley, Nev., fear it would drain the surface springs and push the tiny toad toward extinction. “Geothermal energy has a dark, dirty little secret: They dry up hot springs every time,” said Patrick Donnelly, the Great Basin director at the Center for Biological Diversity.
Yet other plants, such as Ormat’s Tsuchiyu Onsen plant in Fukushima, Japan, coexist with neighboring hot springs, inspiring the Japanese to reconsider the potential of geothermal energy, which creates electricity using fluids from underground.
Ormat said in a statement that it recognized the value of Nevada’s Black Rock Desert. “Sustaining its resources is not only important to residents but also to our long-term success,” the company said.
Nevada’s geothermal resources have become a controversial topic. The state, known as the “golden child of geothermal,” contributes 24 percent of the country’s geothermal power, the highest after California, and produces nearly 10 percent of its electricity using the earth’s heat.
Ormat has 15 plants in Nevada, which together contribute 433 megawatts to the state’s electrical grid — enough to power 325,000 homes. Geothermal environments, including hot springs, geysers and steam vents found along the “Ring of Fire,” the tectonic pathway encircling the Pacific Ocean, are home to a wide range of biodiverse ecosystems. They can also serve as sacred sites for Indigenous tribes and supply spring water to rural towns like Gerlach.
Loss of drinking water is one of the many concerns Gerlach residents have over Ormat’s proposed project. Another is subsidence, the gradual sinking of land already occurring in certain parts of town.
“They build the plant on the aquifer Gerlach is sitting on, Gerlach will sink,” said Will Roger, who, along with his partner, Crimson Rose, is a founder of Burning Man and have lived in Gerlach for 10 years. “That means the foundations of our houses will break and we’ll get condemned.”
Ormat worked to ensure there would be “no significant environmental or economic losses generated by exploration or development” of the site, the company said in its statement. “Geothermal development can bring numerous benefits to communities, especially in rural towns like Gerlach.”
The aquifer also houses the Great Boiling Springs, studied by the likes of NASA for its rare microbial similarities to conditions on Earth billions of years ago. Locals fear the plant would irreversibly affect the spring by mixing geothermal fluids with groundwater.
These are “geological uncertainties,” said Roland N. Horne, a professor of earth sciences at Stanford University. He explained that older steam plants have dried up hot springs, but most Ormat plants, including the one proposed in Gerlach, run on binary technology in which geothermal water never leaves the ground. Binary power plants create energy through a heat exchanger “with no emissions whatsoever of geothermal fluid or gases,” he said.
Still, binary plants are not foolproof. At Ormat’s nearby Jersey Valley plant, springs dried after operating for a few years. Ormat claims there is no proof the drought was caused by the plant, attributing it instead to a poorly plugged mining core hole.
Complicating matters in Gerlach, the plant would infringe on springs culturally significant to the Summit Lake Paiute Tribe. Randi Lone Eagle, the tribe’s chairwoman, said the Bureau of Land Management failed to adequately consult them before greenlighting the project. “Tribes want to be notified way ahead of that process because a lot of the time, we’re coming to the table when the project is already done,” she said.
The plant’s critics say the town’s 130 residents could also be subject to light, noise and pollution, with desert views and historic emigrant trails sullied by the presence of an industrial plant a hundred feet away. These risks were not weighed when the Bureau of Land Management found “no significant impact” in its environmental assessment of the exploration project.
“It’s kind of a NIMBY thing, but so much more,” said Mr. Roger, the Burning Man co-founder, whose two-acre home has 50 trees, a labyrinth, chickens and an aquaponics system that harvests tilapia and fertilizes their greenhouse. “It’s not just ‘not in my backyard,’ but don’t ruin my backyard.”
Last month, local authorities rescinded a permit for Ormat to “temporarily explore whether a commercially viable geothermal resource exists” in Gerlach, Ormat said in its statement, cuing up what is likely to be a long conflict.
Burning Man organizers say when it comes to their social principles, they practice what they preach. Sustainability projects funded by the Burning Man Project, the nonprofit entity that runs the festival, are sprouting around town. The organization claims that it “owns more than half of the commercial property in Gerlach,” advancing its goal to build a permanent community.
As part of an effort to cut the festival’s annual carbon footprint of 100,000 tons by 2030, the Burning Man Project has outlined green initiatives like supplying more “solar installations for artwork and campers” and “having serious conversations” about what art to burn, Ms. Rose said.
But it’s an ambitious goal. About 90 percent of Burning Man’s emissions are caused by cars, RVs and planes hauling thousands of attendees to the remote desert.
Mr. Roger said he hoped greener grids will beckon more electric vehicles to the festival. Unfortunately, electric cars require lithium-ion batteries mined from plants like the one Fuse Battery plans to build outside of Gerlach and will probably receive similar pushback.
He added that he had no plans to scale down the festival to offset its carbon footprint.
“Burning Man changes lives, so if we can wake people up there, to me all that is worth it,” he said. “I don’t want to lower the number; I’d like to raise it.”
Most read…
An Untested Oil Price Cap Has Helped Choke Revenue to Russia
Group of 7 leaders are prepared to celebrate the results of a novel effort to stabilize global oil markets and punish Moscow.
NYT By Jim May 18, 2023Carbon Accounting Changes Could Lift Corporate Greenhouse-Gas Emissions
Some multinationals might be underestimating their emissions by close to 50% under current rules
WSJ By Dieter Holger, May 18, 2023 The EU should start planning now for Russia after Putin
Political destabilisation could lead to armed conflict within Russia itself. There must be a strategy to contain the fallou
POLITICO EU Alexander Clarkson and Kirill Shamiev, TodayWhy the U.S. is so bad at building clean energy, in 3 charts
As Congress battles over the debt ceiling and permitting reform, here’s what’s at stake
WP by Shannon Osaka, Climate zeitgeist reporter, May 18, 2023 
Andrés Gluski, CEO of energy and utility AES CorpHow can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Today's events
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Today's events 〰️
Germany. Ahead of the meeting, U.S. officials sought to persuade other nations’ leaders to try to cap the price that Russia could command for oil.Credit...Kenny Holston for The New York Times/Editing by Germán & CoAn Untested Oil Price Cap Has Helped Choke Revenue to Russia
Group of 7 leaders are prepared to celebrate the results of a novel effort to stabilize global oil markets and punish Moscow.
NYT By Jim May 18, 2023*Jim Tankersley is an economics reporter who covers the White House. He has been tracking the Biden administration’s efforts to limit Russia’s oil revenues for the past year.In early June, at the behest of the Biden administration, German leaders assembled top economic officials from the Group of 7 nations for a video conference with the goal of striking a major financial blow to Russia.
The Americans had been trying, in a series of one-off conversations last year, to sound out their counterparts in Europe, Canada and Japan on an unusual and untested idea. Administration officials wanted to try to cap the price that Moscow could command for every barrel of oil it sold on the world market. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen had floated the plan a few weeks earlier at a meeting of finance ministers in Bonn, Germany.
The reception had been mixed, in part because other countries were not sure how serious the administration was about proceeding. But the call in early June left no doubt: American officials said they were committed to the oil price cap idea and urged everyone else to get on board. At the end of the month, the Group of 7 leaders signed on to the concept.
As the Group of 7 prepares to meet again in this week in Hiroshima, Japan, official and market data suggest the untried idea has helped achieve its twin initial goals since the price cap took effect in December. The cap appears to be forcing Russia to sell its oil for less than other major producers, when crude prices are down significantly from their levels immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Data from Russia and international agencies suggest Moscow’s revenues have dropped, forcing budget choices that administration officials say could be starting to hamper its war effort. Drivers in America and elsewhere are paying far less at the gasoline pump than some analysts feared.
Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago.
Russian officials have been forced to change how they tax oil production in an apparent bid to make up for some of the lost revenues. They also appear to be spending government money to try to start building their own network of ships, insurance companies and other essentials of the oil trade, an effort that European and American officials say is a clear sign of success.
“The Russian price cap is working, and working extremely well,” Wally Adeyemo, the deputy Treasury secretary, said in an interview. “The money that they’re spending on building up this ecosystem to support their energy trade is money they can’t spend on building missiles or buying tanks. And what we’re going to continue to do is force Russia to have these types of hard choices.”
Some analysts doubt the plan is working nearly as well as administration officials claim, at least when it comes to revenues. They say the most frequently cited data on the prices that Russia receives for its exported oil is unreliable. And they say other data, like customs reports from India, suggests Russian officials may be employing elaborate deception measures to evade the cap and sell crude at prices well above its limit.
“I’m concerned the Biden administration’s desperation to claim victory with the price cap is preventing them from actually acknowledging what isn’t working and taking the steps that might actually help them win,” said Steve Cicala, an energy economist at Tufts University who has written about potential evasion under the cap.
The price cap was invented as an escape hatch to the financial penalties that the United States, Europe and others announced on Russian oil exports in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. Those penalties included bans preventing wealthy democracies from buying Russian oil on the world market. But early in the war, they essentially backfired. They drove up the cost of all oil globally, regardless of where it was produced. The higher prices delivered record exports revenues to Moscow, while driving American gasoline prices above $5 a gallon and contributing to President Biden’s sagging approval rating.
A new round of European sanctions was set to hit Russian oil hard in December. Economists on Wall Street and in the Biden administration warned those penalties could knock oil off the market, sending prices soaring again. So administration officials decided to try to leverage the West’s dominance of the oil shipping trade — including how it is transported and financed — and force a hard bargain on Russia.
Under the plan, Russia could keep selling oil, but if it wanted access to the West’s shipping infrastructure, it had to sell at a sharp discount. In December, European leaders agreed to set the cap at $60 a barrel. They followed with other caps for different types of petroleum products, like diesel.
Many analysts were skeptical it could work. A cap that was too punitive had the potential to encourage Russia to severely restrict how much oil it pumps and sells. Such a move could drive crude prices skyward. Alternatively, a cap that was too permissive might have failed to affect Russian oil sales and revenues at all.
Neither scenario has happened. Russia announced a modest production cut this spring but has mostly kept producing at about the same levels it did when the war began.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, has called the price cap an important “safety valve” and a crucial policy that has forced Russia to sell oil for far less than international benchmark prices. Russian oil now trades for $25 to $35 a barrel less than other oil on the global market, Treasury Department officials estimate.
“Russia played the energy card, and it didn’t win,” Mr. Birol wrote in a February report. “Given that energy is the backbone of Russia’s economy, it’s not surprising that its difficulties in this area are leading to wider problems. Its budget deficit is skyrocketing as military spending and subsidies to its population largely exceed its export income.”
Biden administration officials say that there is no evidence of widespread evasion by Russia, and that Mr. Cicala’s analysis of Indian customs reports does not account for the rising cost of transporting Russian oil to India, which is embedded in the customs data.
There is no dispute that the world has avoided what was privately the largest concern for Biden officials last summer: another round of skyrocketing oil prices.
American drivers were paying about $3.54 a gallon on average for gasoline on Monday. That was down nearly $1 from a year ago, and it is nowhere near the $7 a gallon some administration officials feared if the cap had failed to prevent a second oil shock from the Russian invasion. Gas prices are a mild source of relief for Mr. Biden as high inflation continues to hamper his approval among voters.
After rising sharply in the months surrounding the Russian invasion, global oil prices have fallen back to late-2021 levels. The plunge is partly driven by economic cooling around the world, and it has persisted even as large producers like Saudi Arabia have curtailed production.
Falling global prices have contributed to Russia’s falling revenues, but they are not the whole story. Reported sales prices for exported Russian oil, known as Urals, have dropped by twice as much as the global price for Brent crude.
The Group of 7 leaders meeting in Japan this week will probably not spend much time on the cap, instead turning to other collective efforts to constrict Russia’s economy and revenues. And the biggest winners from the cap decision will not be at the summit.
“The direct beneficiaries are mostly emerging market and lower-income countries that import oil from Russia,” Treasury officials noted in a recent report.
The officials were referring to a handful of countries outside the Group of 7 — particularly India and China — that have used the cap as leverage to pay a discount for Russian oil. Neither India nor China joined the formal cap effort, but it is their oil consumers who are seeing the lowest prices from it.
Changes being considered would mean credits from wind or solar projects in one grid region wouldn’t be able to offset fossil-fuel electricity use in another.PHOTO: MICHAEL SOHN/ASSOCIATED PRESS/Editing by Germán & CoCarbon Accounting Changes Could Lift Corporate Greenhouse-Gas Emissions
Some multinationals might be underestimating their emissions by close to 50% under current rules
WSJ By Dieter Holger, May 18, 2023 Changes to emissions accounting rules are being considered that could significantly increase carbon footprints for companies claiming to use 100% renewable power in their efforts to decarbonize.
How companies tally greenhouse-gas emissions from their electricity purchases—so-called Scope 2 emissions—was the most popular issue in a recent consultation on updating widely used GHG Protocol carbon accounting rules. Officials are analyzing whether to recommend more granular reporting of Scope 2 emissions, which would improve accuracy but also could lift reported emissions by as much as nearly 50%, according to recent research. The GHG Protocol is used by more than 10,000 companies to calculate their emissions and is expected to underpin international and U.S. climate reporting regulations.
Under current standards, businesses can claim to be using 100% renewable energy as long as they offset their use of fossil fuel-generated electricity with credits from wind or solar projects in the same general power market, such as the whole of the U.S. or the European Union. For example, a company with a factory in Ohio could buy renewable-energy certificates for power from a Texas wind farm and use the certificates to offset its fossil-fuel electricity consumption in Ohio.
One change being discussed would restrict emissions accounting to electricity from the same grid region, which would mean these kinds of claims wouldn’t be possible since Texas and Ohio are in separate grid regions. The American power market has three major grid regions, which are divided into 26 subregions, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Rules limiting renewable-energy claims to within the smaller subregions would improve the accuracy of emissions accounting because companies would be more likely to actually use the renewable electricity paid for with their certificates.
Another change being discussed would only allow companies to claim they are using renewable energy if the electricity was generated at the same hour of the day that the company was using power from the grid. A 2023 Princeton University study analyzed the emissions effect of location and hourly matching requirements. Lead author, Wilson Ricks, said the restrictions would force companies to do the hard work of sourcing carbon-free electricity to supply their needs when and where these occur. “The result would be that claims of 100% carbon-free electricity become much harder to make, but also much more believable,” Ricks said.
According to a 2022 study, companies that don’t account for hourly and location data could be under- or overestimating their emissions by 35%. A recent review by carbon management firm FlexiDAO of 22 multinationals that bought renewable electricity across 27 countries found that they could be underestimating their electricity emissions by close to 50% under the current system.
“It gives the false impression of achievement and it’s too easy for companies to say, ‘I’m done. I’m 100% renewable, I’ve bought enough stuff, I’m good to go, I’m zero emissions,’” FlexiDAO Chief Executive Simone Accornero said. “That’s clearly not the case.”
However, respondents to a GHG Protocol survey from November 2022 to March 2023 were split between moving to more granular data or maintaining the current rule’s flexibility, said Kyla Aiuto, research associate at the World Resources Institute, the nonprofit co-managing the GHG Protocol with the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.
Google’s published comments to the survey supported the change: “Purchasing clean energy on the same grid where consumption occurs is the best way to create an inventory that accurately reflects the physical realities of the grid and directly addresses the emissions associated with a company’s operations.”
The tech company is aiming to use so-called 24/7 carbon-free energy by 2030, which essentially means using power from clean energy sources like nuclear or renewables in its operations around the clock. Google reached 66% on an hourly basis in 2021. Microsoft has a similar goal and also supports restricting accounting to tighter locations.
However, Emissions First partnership—a group including Facebook -parent Meta, General Motors, Heineken and Amazon —is pushing instead for a new method to be added to the GHG Protocol that allows companies to account for avoided emissions from a renewable-energy investment regardless of where it is in the world.
The broader approach would help deliver a fast, cost-effective and scalable way to decarbonize power grids, said Jake Oster, Amazon Web Services’ director for energy and environment policy in the EMEA region and spokesman for Emissions First.
The GHG Protocol secretariat is reviewing the more than 1,400 survey responses, around 400 of which mentioned Scope 2. Other areas of focus were emissions in the value chain, or so-called Scope 3 emissions, market-based accounting approaches, and corporate accounting and reporting standards.
The group plans to conduct more surveys, convene technical experts and seek feedback on proposals before changes are made. An update could come as early as 2025.
NYT/Editing by Germán & CoThe EU should start planning now for Russia after Putin
Political destabilisation could lead to armed conflict within Russia itself. There must be a strategy to contain the fallou
POLITICO EU Alexander Clarkson and Kirill Shamiev, TodayTwenty-seven years before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in what now seems a very distant past, the European Union considered sanctioning Russia.
In 1995, following Russia’s military intervention in Chechnya, EU leaders suspended the ratification of a planned partnership and cooperation agreement and threatened Moscow with even greater consequences if its war crimes, including the indiscriminate bombing of Chechen civilians, did not stop.
The Boris Yeltsin government dealt with the conflict in Chechnya by unleashing further brutal military force, but Europe eventually backed down and ratified the agreement anyway. In the years that followed, Russia’s leadership went on to dismantle democratic institutions, invade Georgia in 2008 and ignite a war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the prologue to the full-scale invasion of February 2022.
Looking back at the missed opportunities of the 1990s is a reminder of how immediate dilemmas can lead policymakers to overlook signs of the next crisis on the horizon. As it responds to the carnage caused by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, the EU cannot afford not to prepare for the next Russian crisis.
The war in Ukraine, much like the war in Chechnya in the 1990s, has put immense pressure on Russia’s stability as a state. It is critical that EU member states and institutions start to plan for a range of postwar and post-Putin scenarios in Russia, including a destabilisation of the Russian political system that could lead even to armed conflict within the country. To protect the collective interests of Europe, including Ukraine, from any future turmoil engulfing Russia, the EU needs a strategy that actively encourages its democratisation, no matter how small the chances of that now seem.
The Kremlin has long dismissed Brussels as a global player. After European condemnation of the brutalities committed during the Chechen wars, Moscow tried to divide and rule, breaking down the bloc’s values-based unity, engaging individual leaders, identifying the most influential member states and their national interests. In many cases, Russia received the amount of economic and political integration with western nations it wanted while sidestepping domestic democratic reform.
Moscow’s cynical fixation on the interests of individual EU member states both reflected and cast a long shadow over the Russian perception of the EU. Even opposition-minded members of Russian civil society viewed the EU as an imbalanced confederation with big powers dictating the bloc’s economic and foreign policies. Economic growth, travel freedoms and cooperation with individual EU member states left them blind to the gradual decline of freedom in Russia. Russian elites acquired foreign language skills and enough stolen or oil-driven wealth to holiday comfortably in western Europe without bothering to endorse democratic values at home.
For Russia’s middle and upper class, this bargain with Moscow and Brussels ended with the invasion of Ukraine. Having lost any influence over Putin, Russian elites chose either to lie low, escape the country, or start infighting by shifting the blame for the crisis on to one another. If Russia manages to avoid a full-scale slide into totalitarianism, what remains of its democratic opposition may finally be able to acknowledge the EU’s capacity to exert transformative progressive power.
Ukrainian frustration with any deeper EU engagement with Russia would be understandable, but fostering a shift away from Russian imperialism would be in the interests of all of Russia’s neighbours. Since Moscow’s current elite will accuse the EU of interfering anyway, the EU has nothing to lose by having a wider debate about democratic reform in post-Putin Russia.
A postwar Russia trying to overcome Putin’s toxic legacy would have much to learn much from an economically prosperous bloc that has brought together and transformed societies that had once fought each other in two world wars.
But EU institutions would have to set out the detailed steps that Russia’s state elite must take as strict conditions for the reopening of trade, travel and investment access to the rest of Europe. They would also provide incentives. A genuine process of reform that launched the rule of law and acknowledged Russia’s post-conflict obligations to Ukraine and other affected states could be rewarded with the promise of negotiations with Brussels.
European distrust of Russia runs deep so the EU should be resolute about verification at every stage of this process. Many Russians are familiar with the principle of “trust but verify”, which underpinned talks on nuclear disarmament in the Gorbachev-Reagan era. But only an unwavering commitment to verification can rebuild trust. As trust is gradually restored, Russia could over time gain integration into the EU’s single market, the basis for Europe’s successful economic and social order.
It might sound premature to discuss strategies for stimulating Russian reform. But there may be only a fragile window of opportunity to support genuine transformation in Russia. It will require Russians to abandon the imperialist delusions of the Putin regime. If they can do so, there may be a path towards a common European home for all. The west must not lose sight of the potential for positive change in Russia, even as it supports Ukraine in its struggle for survival.
A large solar field north of the Avi Kwa Ame National Monument in Boulder City, Nev., in 2022. (Kyle Grillot for The Washington Post)Why the U.S. is so bad at building clean energy, in 3 charts
As Congress battles over the debt ceiling and permitting reform, here’s what’s at stake
WP by Shannon Osaka, Climate zeitgeist reporter, May 18, 2023 The United States has big plans to move away from fossil fuels. By 2050, the Biden administration has promised, the country will have a carbon footprint of zero — thanks to thousands of wind and solar farms, new nuclear and geothermal power plants, electric vehicles and all-electric homes and buildings.
There’s just one problem: The United States really isn’t very good at building clean energy.
This paradox has become a central question in the anxiety-inducing race to raise the debt ceiling this month. Congressional leaders, haggling over how best to avoid default, have suggested that including legislation to speed up the development of energy projects and power lines — known as “permitting reform” — could help cement a final deal. (They have very different ideas of what that legislation should include: Democrats want to focus on building interstate power lines, while Republicans want to speed up the process of building power plants, including fossil-fuel ones.)
But how bad is the United States, actually, at building all the wind, solar and geothermal needed to eliminate carbon pollution? And why does it take years to build seemingly simple projects?
These three charts show why the country is lagging in its quest to build clean energy, and how certain policies could help.
Clean energy projects stuck in line
The United States needs an estimated 950 gigawatts of clean energy and around 225 gigawatts of storage to substantially clean up its electricity sector. But, almost unbelievably, projects accounting for more than 1,200 gigawatts of clean energy and more than 650 gigawatts of storage have already been proposed; they just can’t get connected to the grid.
This little-known bottleneck is blocking clean energy for millions
This is the frustration of the country’s “interconnection queue,” a long line of projects across the country that are waiting to get plugged in to the country’s aging electricity grid. Right now, key areas of the grid are at capacity — imagine a freeway traffic jam — and new wind and solar can’t be added unless the grid is upgraded, which costs developers money. According to data from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the number of renewable projects waiting in the queue has skyrocketed in recent years.
“It’s kind of a double-edged sword,” said Joe Rand, an energy policy researcher at the Lawrence Berkeley lab. “There’s the really good news that all this clean energy capacity is trying to connect to the grid. But then there’s the backlog and bottlenecks and barriers.”
Many developers end up withdrawing their projects due to the high costs of connecting to the grid. According to Rand’s data, only 21 percent of the projects entering the long line ultimately get built. And for the projects that do get built, getting through the process takes years. It now takes an average of about five years for an energy project to be operational once it enters the queue.
Federal agencies are working on streamlining the process, and the Biden administration has cited this long wait for approval as one area where Congress should act. “Congress should reform the transmission interconnection queue so that new generation projects are not stuck in line,” the White House said in a statement last week.
But one way to alleviate the queue problem is to fix another issue: The slow rollout of transmission lines.
Power lines are painfully slow
Coal and natural gas plants pollute the air and warm the climate, but they do have one upside: They can be on all the time. Wind and solar, however, only produce power at certain times of the day. And some sites are way better (that is, windier or sunnier) than others for producing renewable energy.
“The best sites for wind and solar happen to be in the sunny Southwest or the windy Midwest,” said Johan Cavert, a transmission policy analyst at the think tank the Niskanen Center. “And those areas are just not near the biggest population centers.”
So a country that wants to be largely — around 80 percent, let’s say — powered by renewable electricity needs to have big, interstate transmission lines that carry power from where the renewable energy is generated to where it will be used.
But building transmission lines is slow and complex. Lines often have to cross through states that don’t benefit from them, and the federal government can’t just rubber-stamp those projects. That means that a transmission line can take eight to 15 years to build, slowing progress on clean energy. (A natural gas pipeline, on the other hand, only takes around three years to build.)
A transmission line started now might not be finished until the mid-2030s — well after the point that the United States should have already slashed emissions.
Many Democrats want to prioritize giving the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission more transmission siting authority in any permitting deal. But Republicans argue that authority could infringe on state’s rights.
Local communities push back
As wind and solar farms increasingly gobble up unused land around the country, renewable infrastructure is getting closer and closer to rural communities that aren’t always welcoming of new energy development. In recent years, the number of local communities who have rejected wind and solar farms has risen, according to the Renewable Rejection Database managed by journalist Robert Bryce.
Communities have cited historical heritage, the fear of falling property values, or simply not liking the look of wind and solar as reasons for rejecting projects.
Republicans have suggested narrowing the timeline for environmental reviews, which would ease some of the opposition to energy projects. But this would apply to both fossil fuel projects and clean energy projects — and Democrats worry that loosening the rules under the National Environmental Policy Act might boost oil, gas and coal operations. It currently takes projects an average of 4.5 years to make it through this federal gantlet.
The Biden administration has supported Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.)’s plan, which would impose a two-year time limit on reviews and allow developers to sue if the process extends beyond that. This proposal includes more authority for building transmission, but would also approve the natural gas Mountain Valley Pipeline — a sticking point for some Democrats.
It’s still unclear whether a permitting deal will make it across the finish line in the debt ceiling negotiations — and, if it does, how much it will boost renewable energy and transmission. But something will have to change if America wants to reach its clean energy goals.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country
…Armando Rodríguez, vice-president and executive director of the company, talks to us about their projects in the DR, where they have been operating for 32 years.
More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
News round-up, May 17, 2023
Quote of the day…
“We have a huge responsibility, supplying the rest of Europe with energy,” Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram told POLITICO. “To be a stable, reliable producer of energy, of gas, is an important role for us and we take that very seriously. That is why we are also doing so much to protect this infrastructure.”
SCOURING THE SEAS FOR PUTIN'S PIPELINE SABOTEURS, POLITICO EU.Most read…
Row over Russian energy sanctions gatecrashes EU-India summit
As Brussels trumpets new trade ties with the South Asian country, officials are split on whether to target energy embargo loopholes.
POLITICO E.U. BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND BARBARA MOENS, MAY 16, 2023 What Happens If a Debt Ceiling Agreement Isn't Reached
Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy Expected to Resume Debt Limit Talks on Tuesday
TIME BY SOLCYRE BURGA, MAY 15, 2023UBS flags $17 billion hit from Credit Suisse takeover
According to UBS, the assets and liabilities of the combined group will have a negative impact of $13 billion as a result of fair value adjustments. Additionally, it anticipates $4 billion in future legal and regulatory expenses as a result of outflows.
REUTERS By John Revill and Selena LiEU balks at adding Russian gas pipeline ban to sanctions package
The idea isn’t gaining much traction in Brussels, but Kyiv is pushing hard for sanctions to cover gas pipelines.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VICTOR JACK, MAY 16, 2023 Scouring the seas for Putin's pipeline saboteurs
At sea, on the hunt for Russia's pipeline saboteurs.
POLITICO E.U. by CHARLIE COOPER IN BERGEN, NORWAY. PHOTOS BY INGERD JORDAL FOR POLITICO EU/EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, MAY 16, 2023Japan embraces G7's gas support but companies may face long-term problems
To achieve its net-zero carbon emission targets and ensure energy security, Japan, the world's largest LNG consumer, is committed to using gas as a transition fuel. However, this commitment contrasts with the demands of the other G7 nations to immediately reduce all fossil fuel consumption.
REUTERS By Katya Golubkova, Yuka Obayashi and Kate AbnettImage by Germán & Co Quote of the day…
“We have a huge responsibility, supplying the rest of Europe with energy,” Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram told POLITICO. “To be a stable, reliable producer of energy, of gas, is an important role for us and we take that very seriously. That is why we are also doing so much to protect this infrastructure.”
Scouring the seas for Putin's pipeline saboteurs, POLITICO EU.Most read…
Row over Russian energy sanctions gatecrashes EU-India summit
As Brussels trumpets new trade ties with the South Asian country, officials are split on whether to target energy embargo loopholes.
POLITICO E.U. BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND BARBARA MOENS, MAY 16, 2023 What Happens If a Debt Ceiling Agreement Isn't Reached
Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy Expected to Resume Debt Limit Talks on Tuesday
TIME BY SOLCYRE BURGA, MAY 15, 2023UBS flags $17 billion hit from Credit Suisse takeover
According to UBS, the assets and liabilities of the combined group will have a negative impact of $13 billion as a result of fair value adjustments. Additionally, it anticipates $4 billion in future legal and regulatory expenses as a result of outflows.
REUTERS By John Revill and Selena LiEU balks at adding Russian gas pipeline ban to sanctions package
The idea isn’t gaining much traction in Brussels, but Kyiv is pushing hard for sanctions to cover gas pipelines.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VICTOR JACK, MAY 16, 2023 Scouring the seas for Putin's pipeline saboteurs
At sea, on the hunt for Russia's pipeline saboteurs.
POLITICO E.U. by CHARLIE COOPER IN BERGEN, NORWAY. PHOTOS BY INGERD JORDAL FOR POLITICO EU/EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, MAY 16, 2023Japan embraces G7's gas support but companies may face long-term problems
To achieve its net-zero carbon emission targets and ensure energy security, Japan, the world's largest LNG consumer, is committed to using gas as a transition fuel. However, this commitment contrasts with the demands of the other G7 nations to immediately reduce all fossil fuel consumption.
REUTERS By Katya Golubkova, Yuka Obayashi and Kate AbnettAndrés Gluski, CEO of energy and utility AES CorpHow can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Today's events
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Today's events 〰️
Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar denies criticism that India is helping Russia circumvent EU sanctions | Erika Santelices/AFP/Editing by Germán & CoRow over Russian energy sanctions gatecrashes EU-India summit
As Brussels trumpets new trade ties with the South Asian country, officials are split on whether to target energy embargo loopholes.
POLITICO E.U. BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND BARBARA MOENS, MAY 16, 2023 BRUSSELS — Talk at an EU-India summit on Tuesday was meant to be about tech and trade. But the first high-level meeting of its kind ended up being overshadowed by an apparent loophole in Western sanctions against Russia that allows countries like India to buy up cheap oil, refine it, and then ship it back to Europe for a hefty profit.
Speaking at a press conference in Brussels, Indian Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar denied criticism that his country was helping Moscow circumvent sanctions. Saying he did not "see the basis" for such allegations, New Delhi's top diplomat said EU rules mandate that "if Russian crude is substantially transformed, it’s not treated as Russian anymore."
In earlier comments to the Financial Times the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell broke ranks to say that Brussels should move to crack down on third countries refining Russian oil and selling the products on to the bloc. "If diesel or gasoline is entering Europe ... from India and being produced with Russian oil, that is certainly a circumvention of sanctions and member states will have to take measures," he said.
The row intruded on what was supposed to be an upbeat summit as Brussels hosted the first meeting of the newly created EU-India Trade and Tech Council, designed to foster cooperation between two of the world's largest democracies. It comes in a week of hectic summit diplomacy that will culminate in a G7 summit in Japan where Russia sanctions will top the agenda.
Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said the EU-India relationship has the potential to be the "defining partnership of the 21st century." The EU is meanwhile keen to build closer ties with India in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has also moved to resume negotiations with India on a stalled free trade deal.
However, data from shipping platform Kpler, seen by POLITICO, shows that the South Asian nation has become one of the biggest winners from energy sanctions imposed by the West on Russia in the wake of the war in Ukraine. No longer competing for supplies with Europe and other major economies, India has saved around $89 per ton of crude, an analysis from one state-controlled bank reports.
As a result, since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion, Indian imports of Russian crude oil have shot up from around 1 million barrels a month to more than 63 million barrels in April alone.
At the same time, its lucrative exports of refined oil products to the EU have skyrocketed, raising concerns that it is simply selling on processed Russian supplies.
European imports of diesel from India saw an almost tenfold increase last month compared to the same time last year, with member states buying over 5 million barrels, while the flow of jet fuel to the Continent soared by more than 250 percent to a total of 2.49 million barrels.
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS TO INDIA HAVE SKYROCKETED ...
Seaborne exports of Russian crude oil to India, in barrels sold per month.
... WHILE INDIA IS SHIPPING MORE FUEL TO THE EU
Seaborne exports of Indian jet fuel and diesel fuel to the EU, in barrels sold per month.
'Legal but immoral'
In February, the EU imposed a ban on Russian refined oil products, building on an embargo on crude imposed last year. However, fuel from Russian oil produced by refineries in third countries has proven harder to crack down on.
“We have enough evidence that some international companies are buying refinery products made from Russian oil and selling them on to Europe,” Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told POLITICO in March. “It’s completely legal, but completely immoral. Just because it’s allowed doesn’t mean we don’t need to do anything about it.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has consistently defied pressure to impose sanctions on Russia or scale back close economic ties with the Kremlin. “India is on the side of peace and will remain firmly there,” he insisted last September, arguing that his country was under no obligation to weigh into the conflict.
"India has a growing population and the government has set up a massive development agenda which needs increasing energy supplies," said Purva Jain, a New Delhi-based analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
"When geopolitical disturbances happen, economic opportunities are created. Ultimately these decisions are being driven by energy security concerns," she added.
The discussion on sanctions is particularly sensitive given the EU is currently negotiating its 11th sanctions package against Russia, which focuses on fighting the circumvention of existing economic restrictions. Brussels is considering also hitting third countries with penalties if they are found to be breaking its rules. Although India is not top of mind in that discussion, it could open the door for future measures against New Delhi.
Speaking alongside Foreign Minister Jaishankar, the EU's Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager sought to downplay Borrell's comments. If there are concerns to be raised, she said, "it will be with an extended hand, not a pointed finger."
Another thorny issue between the two powerhouses is the bloc's proposal to impose a tariff of up to 35 percent on carbon-intensive imports, including cement and steel, which are among New Delhi's main trade offerings.
New Delhi is planning to take the dispute with Brussels to the World Trade Organization to overturn the plans, which it says amount to protectionism, Reuters reported earlier. The two sides have now agreed to discuss the upcoming measure in the Trade and Tech Council, as POLITICO previously reported. "I am sure the intention is not to create a barrier to trade but to find a way forward," said Goyal.
PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 29, 2019: Former Vice President Joe Biden points to the crowd outside of his first 2020 presidential campaign stop in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Image by Germán & Co via ShutterstockWhat Happens If a Debt Ceiling Agreement Isn't Reached
Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy Expected to Resume Debt Limit Talks on Tuesday
TIME BY SOLCYRE BURGA, MAY 15, 2023A politically-divided Congress is at a crossroads over raising the U.S. government’s debt ceiling, as the country is on the brink of defaulting on their loans if an agreement isn’t made soon.
The federal debt ceiling was last increased in December 2021, by $2.5 trillion to $31.4 trillion, which the government maxed out in mid-January. The Treasury Department said it has since taken “extraordinary measures” to avoid falling into default on their debt, though Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the government could run out of money for its bills as early as June 1.
“Given the current projections, it is imperative that Congress act as soon as possible to increase or suspend the debt limit in a way that provides longer-term certainty that the government will continue to make its payments,” Yellen wrote in a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on May 1.
Lawmakers have made changes to the debt limit more than 100 times since World War II. This year Republicans have vowed to increase the debt ceiling so long as it’s suggested spending cuts are enacted. President Joe Biden, however, wants to see an increase in the debt ceiling separate from any budgetary changes.
Defaulting would “produce an economic and financial catastrophe,” Yellen said in a statement, remarking that the government would not be able to make Social Security payments or invest in future projects. “Congress must vote to raise or suspend the debt limit. It should do so without conditions. And it should not wait until the last minute.”
What are Republicans negotiating for?
On Wednesday, House Republicans passed a spending bill that would increase the debt ceiling but cap federal spending for a decade. The bill, which narrowly passed the House, would also roll back the Biden administration’s energy tax credit, as well as impose certain work requirements on federal social programs, among other measures.
The bill is not likely to move forward in the Democrat-controlled Senate, where many legislators are unhappy with the suggested concessions. President Biden also said he would veto the bill if it reached his desk.
Republicans, however, see it as a step towards negotiations. “We lifted the debt limit; we’ve sent it to the Senate; we’ve done our job,” said House Speaker McCarthy after the bill passed.
What happens if Congress doesn’t reach an agreement?
If no Congressional action is taken and the government reaches its debt ceiling, it will have to default on its financial obligations, although this has yet to happen in history.. This has The government won’t be able to pay salaries for federal employees, veterans’ benefits, and also won’t be able to fund Social Security, affecting some 66 million Americans, though the future of social security is already under question as projections foresee that the fund’s reserves will run out by 2033.
Social Security recipients could temporarily see their checks arrive with a delay, depending on how long it takes politicians to negotiate the debt ceiling.
A default would also seriously impact the global economy, which relies on the relative stability of the United States. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects that interest rates would increase and investment into Treasury securities would stop, impacting people’s car loans, credit cards, and more.
Previous debt ceiling negotiations were also stalled under the Obama administration, marking a new standard of polarized political battles when it came to discussing the government’s spending budget. In 2011, House Republicans fought for months to decrease the deficit in exchange for a debt ceiling raise, impacting the country’s credit ranking for the first time ever. Discussions culminated two days before the Treasury said the United States would have exhausted all funds. That delay in voting to raise the debt ceiling affected the stock market and led to higher borrowing rates for the U.S. that cost the country an additional $1.3 billion in 2011, according to the United States Government Accountability Office.
President Biden and top congressional lawmakers are set to meet early next week after talks were canceled Friday.
“We’ve not reached the crunch point yet but there’s real discussion about some changes we all could make,” Biden said on Saturday before boarding Air Force One. “But we’re not there yet.”
Correction, May 15The original version of this story misstated how much the debt ceiling last increased. It increased by $2.5 trillion, not from $2.5 trillion.
Image by Germán & CoUBS flags $17 billion hit from Credit Suisse takeover
According to UBS, the assets and liabilities of the combined group will have a negative impact of $13 billion as a result of fair value adjustments. Additionally, it anticipates $4 billion in future legal and regulatory expenses as a result of outflows.
REUTERS By John Revill and Selena LiA logo of Swiss bank UBS is seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 29, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
May 16 (Reuters) - UBS Group AG (UBSG.S) expects a financial hit of about $17 billion from the takeover of Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S), the bank said in a regulatory presentation as it prepares to complete the rescue of its struggling Swiss rival.
UBS estimates a negative impact of $13 billion from fair value adjustments of the combined group's assets and liabilities. It also sees $4 billion in potential litigation and regulatory costs stemming from outflows.
UBS, however, also estimated it would book a one-off gain stemming from the so-called "negative goodwill" of $34.8 billion by buying Credit Suisse for a fraction of its book value.
The financial cushion will help absorb potential losses and could result in a boost to the lender's second-quarter profit if UBS closes the transaction next month as planned.
UBS said the estimates were preliminary and the numbers could change materially later on. It also said it might book restructuring provisions after that, but offered no numbers.
"The financial information lacks an estimate of restructuring provisions as these will be booked after the transaction closes," Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti said in a note.
Analysts at Jefferies have estimated restructuring costs, litigation provisions and the planned winding down of the non-core unit could total $28 billion.
Meanwhile, UBS has implemented a number of restrictions on Credit Suisse while the takeover is underway.
In certain cases, Credit Suisse cannot grant a new credit facility or credit line exceeding 100 million Swiss francs ($113 million) to investment-grade borrowers or more than 50 million francs to non-investment-grade borrowers, a UBS filing showed.
"Credit Suisse obviously found itself in a problem because of lapses in its risk controls and I think just setting these parameters on the ability or standards to lend out is not very unreasonable," said Benjamin Quinlan, Hong Kong-based chief executive of financial consultancy firm Quinlan & Associates
"Ultimately, from UBS' perspective, they will have to wear these risks on their books."
Credit Suisse also cannot undertake capital expenses of more than 10 million francs as part of the restrictions or enter into certain contracts worth more than 3 million francs per year.
The filing shows Credit Suisse cannot order any "material amendments" to its employee terms and conditions, including remuneration and pension entitlements, till deal closure.
The restrictions "will cause certain clients to leave Credit Suisse" but may not accelerate the pace of outflows already seen, said Quinlan, following UBS' statement last week that Credit Suisse had already stemmed asset outflows.
RUSHED INTO DEAL
UBS said it was rushed into the deal and had less than four days to complete due diligence given the 'emergency circumstances' as Credit Suisse's financial health worsened.
UBS agreed in March to buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.4 billion) in stock and to assume up to 5 billion francs in losses that would stem from winding down part of the business, in a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities over a weekend amid a global banking turmoil.
The deal, the first rescue of a global bank since the 2008 financial crisis, will create a wealth manager with more than $5 trillion in invested assets and over 120,000 employees globally.
The Swiss state is backing the deal with up to 250 billion Swiss francs in public funds.
Switzerland's government is providing a guarantee of up to 9 billion francs for further potential losses on a clearly defined part of Credit Suisse portfolio.
UBS signaled no quick turnaround for the 167-year-old Credit Suisse, which came to the brink of collapse during the recent banking sector turmoil after years of scandals and losses.
It said it expected both the Credit Suisse group and its investment bank to report substantial pre-tax losses in the second quarter and the whole of this year.
Following the legal closing of the transaction, UBS Group AG plans to manage two separate parent companies – UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG, UBS said last week. It has said the integration process could take three to four years.
During that time, each institution will continue to have its own subsidiaries and branches, serve its clients and deal with counterparties.
G7 members like Germany and Italy still have pipeline links to Russia, even if their flow of gas has drastically dropped | John MacDougall/AFP/Editing by Germán & CoEU balks at adding Russian gas pipeline ban to sanctions package
The idea isn’t gaining much traction in Brussels, but Kyiv is pushing hard for sanctions to cover gas pipelines.
POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VICTOR JACK, MAY 16, 2023 The EU is unlikely to amend its 11th Russia sanctions package to permanently shut natural gas pipelines the Kremlin turned off following its invasion of Ukraine, even though it's up for discussion at the upcoming G7 summit, diplomats told POLITICO.
According to draft conclusions seen by the Financial Times, the G7 club of rich democracies meeting in Japan is mulling a measure that would bar countries like Germany and Poland from resuming imports of natural gas from Russia even if the Kremlin decides to turn the taps back on.
But that would have to be accepted by G7 members like Germany and Italy, which still have pipeline links to Russia, even if the gas flowing through them has dropped off to almost nothing, and EU officials and analysts say there is no consensus in support of the idea.
“From what I hear, it is very unlikely this will pass,” said one diplomat from an EU country that had its Russian gas cut off last year, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.
“There is too much resistance from the countries dependent on the remaining gas,” the diplomat added. “The 11th sanctions package is almost done and inserting this huge measure at this moment is not going to work.”
Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied over 40 percent of the EU's gas imports. That's now fallen to less than 8 percent, according the Bruegel think tank.
Two of the largest prewar routes, the undersea Nord Stream pipeline to Germany and the Yamal pipeline running across Poland, have seen flows drop to zero. Transit via pipelines running across Ukraine is about a quarter of the prewar level, with only the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea running at levels similar to before the invasion.
Russia has dangled the possibility of reopening the taps; President Vladimir Putin in October said his country is ready to restart supplies if necessary.
The G7 gambit is designed to “curb attempts to resurrect Nord Stream,” above all to quell voices in Germany and any other countries where there “may be companies and consumers who may be interested in resuming imports” of Russian pipeline gas one day, said Aura Sabadus, a senior analyst at the market intelligence firm ICIS.
It could also help build pressure for including pipelines in an eventual 12th round of EU sanctions.
That's exactly what Kyiv hopes will happen.
“The prohibition of pipeline imports of Russian gas can be a good symbolic step,” Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko told POLITICO. “It could disable one comfortable way for Russia to blackmail the EU and corrupt European politicians.”
The European Commission declined to comment on the pipeline sanctions report.
Scouring the seas for Putin's pipeline saboteurs
At sea, on the hunt for Russia's pipeline saboteurs.
POLITICO E.U. by CHARLIE COOPER IN BERGEN, NORWAY. PHOTOS BY INGERD JORDAL FOR POLITICO EU/EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, MAY 16, 2023It’s an hour before dawn breaks over the North Sea. Aboard the KV Bergen, the officer of the watch is wide awake.
The 93-meter long Norwegian Navy Coast Guard vessel is on patrol, 50 miles out to sea. The sky is dark, the sea darker. But off the starboard bow, bright lights gleam through the rain and mist. Something huge and incongruous is looming out of the water, lit like a Christmas display.
“Troll A,” says Torgeir Standal, 49, the ship’s second in command, who is taking the watch on this bleak March morning.
It’s a gas platform — a big one.
Image: by Germán & Co via ShutterstockWhen it was transported out to this desolate spot nearly 30 years ago, Troll A — stretching 472 meters from its seabed foundations to the tip of its drilling rig — became the tallest structure ever moved by people across the surface of the Earth. Last year, Troll, the gas field it taps into, provided 10 percent of the EU’s total supply of natural gas — heating homes, lighting streets, fueling industry.
“There are many platforms here,” says Standal, standing on the dark bridge of the Bergen, his face illuminated by the glow from the radar and satellite screens on his control panel. “And thousands of miles of pipeline underneath.”
And that’s why the Bergen has come to this spot today.
In September 2022, an explosion on another undersea gas pipeline nearly 600 miles away shook the world. Despite three ongoing investigations, there is still no official answer to the question of who blew up the Nord Stream pipe. But the fact that it could happen at all triggered a Europe-wide alert.
Against a backdrop of growing confrontation with Moscow over its brutal invasion of Ukraine and its willingness to use energy as a weapon, the vulnerability of the undersea pipes and cables that deliver gas, electricity and data to the Continent — the vital arteries of comfortable, modern European life — has been starkly exposed.
In response, Norway, alongside NATO allies, increased naval patrols in the North Sea — an area vital for Europe’s energy security. The presence of the Bergen, day and night, in these unforgiving waters, is part of the effort to remain vigilant. The task of the men and women on board is to keep watch on behalf of Europe — and to stop the next Nord Stream attack before it happens.
The officers of the watch
But what are they looking for?
In recent weeks the Bergen has tracked the movements of a Russian military frigate through the North Sea — something that it has to do “several times every year,” says Kenneth Dyb, 47, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship.
The Russians have a right to sail through these seas out to the Atlantic, and it is very unlikely Moscow would be so brazen as to openly attack a gas platform or a pipeline. But, says Dyb, as his ship steams west to another gas and oil field, Oseberg, “it’s important to show that we are present. That we are watching.”
Recent reports that Russian naval ships — with their trackers turned off — were present near the site of the Nord Stream blasts in the months running up to the incident have reinforced the importance of having extra eyes on the water itself.
Of course, the gas didn’t come for free. Norway has profited hugely from the spike in gas and oil prices that followed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The state-owned energy giant Equinor made a record $75 billion profit in 2022. Oslo is sensitive to accusations of war profiteering — and keen to show Europe that it cares about its neighbors’ energy security as much as it cares about their cash.
But the threat to the pipelines could also be more low-key. One of the many theories about the Nord Stream attack is that it was carried out by a small group of divers, operating from an ordinary yacht. In such a scenario, something as seemingly innocent as a ship suddenly going stationary, or following an unaccustomed course through the water, could be suspicious. The Bergen’s crew have the authority to board and inspect vessels that its crew consider a cause for concern.
Russia’s covert presence in these waters has been acknowledged by Norway’s intelligence services in recent weeks. A joint investigation by the public broadcasters in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland uncovered evidence of civilian vessels, such as fishing ships, being used for surveillance activities. This is something that has been “going on forever,” according to Ståle Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, but it has increased in intensity in recent years.
NORWAY'S GAS NETWORK
The map below shows gas-extraction sites in the North Sea, colored in dark purple. Gas reaches its destination, both in Norway and in othe European countries, via pipelines that are mostly underwater. The longest pipleine is 1,164 kilometers long and goes from the Nyhamna plant to Easington, in the U.K. The one going to Niechorze, in Poland, is 900 km long.
Source:Norwegian Petroleum Directorate“We always look for oddities, anything that is unusual, like new ships in the area that have not been here before,” says Magne Storebø, 26, senior petty officer, as he takes the afternoon watch on the bridge later that day.
The sky is leaden and the horizon lost in cloud. Coffee in hand, Storebø casts his eye over the radar and satellite screens as giant windscreen wipers whip North Sea spray from the floor-to-ceiling windows. There are few ships around, all of them familiar to the crew; service vessels plying back and forth from the gas and oil platforms.
The Nord Stream incident and the new security situation has changed the way Storebø thinks about his work, he says.
He is “more aware of the consequences suspicious vessels could have,” he says. “More awake, you could say.”
Soft-spoken and calm beyond his years, Storebø is philosophical about the potential dangers of his work. He has been in the Navy for four years, in which time war has broken out on the European continent and the threat to his home waters has come into sharp focus.
“If you are going to put a rainy cloud over your head and bury yourself down, I don’t think the Navy or the coastguard is the right place to work in,” he says in conversation with two shipmates later that day. “You need to adjust and to look in a positive direction — and to be ready in case things don’t go that way.”
Energy war round two
As Europe emerges from the first winter of its energy war with Russia, its gas supplies have held up better than almost anyone expected.
But as the Continent braces for next winter, the risk of another Nord Stream-style attack to a key pipeline is taken seriously at the highest levels of leadership.
“Things look OK for gas security now,” said one senior European Commission official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters of energy security. “But if Norway has a pipeline that blows up, we are in a different situation.”
EU policymakers see four key risks to gas security going into next winter, the senior official added: exceptionally cold weather; a stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery hoovering up global gas supply; Russia cutting off the remaining gas it sends to Europe; and last but not least, an “incident” affecting energy infrastructure.
Such an event might not only threaten supply but could potentially spark panic in the gas market, as seen in 2022, driving up prices and hitting European citizens and industries in the wallet. And nowhere is the potential for harm greater than in the North Sea.
Norway is now Europe’s biggest single supplier of gas. After Russian President Vladimir Putin and the energy giant Gazprom shut off supply via Nord Stream and other pipelines, Norway stepped up its own production in the North Sea, delivering well over 100 billion cubic meters to the EU and the U.K. in 2022. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen visited Troll A herself in March this year — the first visit of a Commission president to Norway since 2011 — to personally thank the country’s president, Jonas Gahr Støre, for supplies that “helped us through the winter.”
“We have a huge responsibility, supplying the rest of Europe with energy,” Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram told POLITICO. “To be a stable, reliable producer of energy, of gas, is an important role for us and we take that very seriously. That is why we are also doing so much to protect this infrastructure.”
The vast majority of that gas is transported into northwest Europe via a complex network of seabed pipes — more than 5,000 miles of them in Norway’s jurisdiction alone. The North Sea has an average depth of just 95 meters. That’s not much deeper than the Nord Stream pipes at the location they were attacked.
“It actually doesn’t take a particularly sophisticated capability to attack a pipeline in relatively shallow waters,” says Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in the U.K.A small vessel, “some divers and an [explosive] charge” are all it could take, Kaushal says.
The navy chief
After the Nord Stream incident in September, suspicion instantly fell on Russia. Moscow has a record of operating in the so-called gray zone — committing hostile acts short of warfare, often covertly.
To date, the three investigations looking into the incident have yet to confirm that suspicion. But European governments — and their militaries — are not taking any chances.
In the days immediately following the explosions, NATO navy chiefs started calling each other to try to coordinate efforts to protect energy infrastructure, says Rune Andersen, the chief of Norway’s navy, speaking to POLITICO at Haakonsvern naval base, before the KV Bergen’s voyage.
Everyone had the same thought, he says. “If that happens in the North Sea, we will have a problem.”
Andersen joined the Navy as a young man in 1988, in the last days of the Cold War. Now 54, he is used to the Russian threat overshadowing Norway’s and Europe’s security.
“After decades of attempts to integrate or cooperate with Russia, we now have war in Europe. We see that our neighbor is brutal and willing to use military force,” he says grimly. “I worked in the Navy in the ’90s when it was enduring peace and partnership on the agenda. We are back to a situation where our job feels more meaningful — and necessary.”
Kenneth Dyb, the skippsjef, or commander of the shipHowever, he points out, his own forces have so far not seen any Russian movements or operations “that are different to what they were before” the Nord Stream attacks. “The job we are doing is precautionary, rather than tailored to any specific threat,” he adds.
Even so, those early discussions with NATO allies have now formalized into daily coordination via the Allied Maritime Command headquarters in the U.K., to ensure there are always NATO ships on hand that can act as “first responders” to potential incidents. British, German and French ships have joined their Norwegian counterparts in the monitoring and surveillance effort.
It is “by nature challenging” to protect every inch of pipeline, all of the time, Andersen says.
The role of the Bergen and ships like it, he adds, is just “one bit of the puzzle.” Simply by their presence at sea, these ships increase the chances of catching would-be saboteurs in the act, and hopefully deter them from trying in the first place.
The goal, in other words, is to reduce the size of the “gray zone” — or to “increase the resolution” of the navy’s picture of the activity out on the North Sea, as Andersen puts it.
In collaboration with the energy companies and pipeline operators, unmanned underwater vehicles — drones — using cameras and high-resolution sonar have been used, Andersen says, to “map the micro-terrain” around pipelines. These are sensitive enough to spot an explosive charge or other signs of foul play.
Equinor, alongside the pipeline operator Gassco, has carried out a “large inspection survey” of its undersea pipeline infrastructure, a company spokesperson says. The survey revealed “no identified signs of malicious activities” but pipeline inspections are ongoing “continuously.”
Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand speaks to the crew. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past, we are probably less naïve nowadays,” he says.
Perhaps understandably, the heightened level of alert has led to the occasional false alarm. A spate of aerial drone sightings near Norwegian energy infrastructure around the time of the Nord Stream attacks last year included a report of a suspicious craft circling above Haakonsvern naval base itself.
“After a while, we concluded it was a seagull,” says Andersen, with the shadow of a grin.
Europe on alert
The navy chief is nonetheless deadly serious about the potential threat. A Nord Stream-style attack in the North Sea is possible. Anderson will not be drawn on the most vulnerable points in the network, saying only that “easy to access” places and “key hubs” are “two things in the back of mind when we think [about] risk.”
Throughout Europe, the alert has been raised. This month, NATO warned of a “significant risk” that Russia could target undersea pipelines or internet cables as part of its confrontation with the West.
Several countries are increasing patrols and underwater surveillance capabilities. The British Royal Navy accelerated the purchase of two specialist ocean surveillance ships, the first of which will be operational this summer. The EU and NATO have established a new joint task force focusing on critical infrastructure protection, and a “coordination cell” has been established at NATO headquarters in Brussels to improve “engagement with industry and bring key military and civilian stakeholders together” to keep the cables and pipelines secure.
Norway — and Europe — are in this struggle for the long haul, Andersen believes.
Indeed, even as Europe transitions from fossil fuels to green energy, the North Sea will remain a vital powerhouse of offshore wind energy, with plans for a huge expansion over the next 25 years. Earlier this year, the Netherlands’ intelligence services reported a Russian ship seeking to map wind farm infrastructure in the Dutch sector of the North Sea. “We think the Russians wanted to investigate the possibilities for potential future sabotage,” Jan Swillens, head of the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service tells POLITICO in an emailed statement. “This incident makes clear that these kinds of Russian operations are performed closer than one might think.”
At the same time in the Baltic, countries are shoring up security around their infrastructure, at sea and on land. Late last year, Estonia carried out an underwater inspection of the two Estlink power cables and the Baltic Connector gas pipeline linking it to Finland, the Estonian navy says. Lithuania, meanwhile, is paying “special attention” to security around its LNG terminal at Klaipėda and the gas cargoes that arrive there, a defense ministry spokesperson says.
It was in Lithuania that Europe had its first major false alarm since the Nord Stream incident, when a gas pipeline on land exploded on a Friday evening in January. Foul play was briefly considered a possibility in the immediate aftermath but was quickly ruled out. The pipe was 40 years old, and had been subject to a technical fault.
The danger posed by Russia to infrastructure throughout Europe should not be underestimated, says Vilmantas Vitkauskas, director of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre and a former NATO intelligence official.
“We know their way of thinking, [the way] they send signals or apply pressure,” Vitkauskas says. “We understand Russia quite well, and we are quite worried by what we see — and how vulnerable our infrastructure is in Europe.”
The watchers on the water
Back aboard the Bergen, life for the sailors carries on as normal. It’s a young crew, with an average age of around 30. Some are conscripts. It’s still compulsory in Norway for 19-year-olds to present themselves for national service, but only around one in four are actually recruited for the mandated 19-month stint.
The days are long. Surveillance, maintenance and exercises in search and rescue are all part of the crew’s regular routine. A helicopter from one of the Oseberg oil and gas platforms soars overhead, and the crew are drafted into an exercise winching people on and off the deck of the Bergen in the dead of night, simulating a rescue operation.
The ship needs to be ready to respond to an incident should the call come in from naval headquarters that help is required, or a suspicious vessel has been identified in their patch of the North Sea. But in their downtime, the sailors head to the gym on the lower deck, or play FIFA on the X-box in the sparse games room. Three hearty meals a day are served in the galley kitchen. There is even a ship’s band, cheekily named “Dyb Purple” after their commander. Dyb “takes it well,” says Senior Petty Officer Storebø.
In the daily whirl of activity, most of the young sailors don’t think of their work in the grand strategic sense of protecting the energy security — the warmth, the light, the industry — of an entire continent.
But the context of the Ukraine war — and the precedent set by the Nord Stream attack — has added a note of solemnity just below the surface of the comradeship and bonhomie.
“We are probably less naïve nowadays,” says 33-year-old Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand, who has a wife and two children, a boy and a girl, back home in Bergen. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past, there hasn’t been a concrete threat.”
Storebø agrees but is characteristically sanguine. “Russia has always been there … I’ve not personally felt any more unease than before.”
The next day, Storebø has the night watch, from midnight to four in the morning, as the Bergen travels back to base for a short stop before heading out to sea again.
It’s dark up on the bridge, with the glow of the control panel screens the only light inside. Twenty miles away, little lights can be seen on the Norwegian coast. A lighthouse flares to the south, at Slåtterøy, not far from Storebø’s home island of Austevoll. Beneath the waves, unseen, gas flows from the Troll field back to the mainland, where it is processed. From there, it continues its journey south to light the dark of European nights.
All is quiet but Storebø can’t afford to lose focus. “Coffee and music help,” he says. “I like the night shifts.”
As the officer of the watch, he has to be ready, should the radar, the satellites, or his own eyes see something out of the ordinary — ready to call the captain and raise the alarm.
That’s the job, he says. “You always have it in the back of your mind.”
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country
…Armando Rodríguez, vice-president and executive director of the company, talks to us about their projects in the DR, where they have been operating for 32 years.
More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Image: Germán & CoCooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker is tugged towards a thermal power station in Futtsu, east of Tokyo, Japan November 13, 2017. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo/Editing by Germán & CoJapan embraces G7's gas support but companies may face long-term problems
To achieve its net-zero carbon emission targets and ensure energy security, Japan, the world's largest LNG consumer, is committed to using gas as a transition fuel. However, this commitment contrasts with the demands of the other G7 nations to immediately reduce all fossil fuel consumption.
REUTERS By Katya Golubkova, Yuka Obayashi and Kate AbnettTOKYO, May 17 (Reuters) - Japan's energy companies were quick to embrace the G7's support for natural gas investment in their statement last month but analysts caution that relying on the fossil fuel may open the companies up to long-term problems.
Resource poor Japan, the world's biggest buyer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is committed to gas as a transition fuel to reach its net-zero carbon emission goals while ensuring energy security but that conflicts with the demands from other G7 members to curb all fossil fuel use sooner rather than later.
a new report said on Tuesday.00:1001:54
Japan's insistence on continuing to rely on gas may delay reaching global climate change goals, especially as its energy companies reap large profits from their investments in the sector, climate activists say.
The meeting of G7 climate ministers eventually agreed last month, despite tussles between Japan and European nations, that gas investments "can be appropriate to help address potential market shortfalls" as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the disruptions it has caused to global energy markets.
On Monday, Takehiro Honjo, the chairman of the Japan Gas Association, said the fact the G7 made it clear that it is appropriate to invest in natural gas mitigates some of investment risk for Japanese companies looking to continue their spending on projects.
But analysts warn that in the long-term Japan's goals to cut out carbon emissions from its energy sector will reduce the value of future gas projects.
"The short lead time of shale gas or LNG export projects as well as the contract flexibility fit well with what major consumers including Japan and Europe are looking for in the era of uncertainty," said Yoko Nobuoka, senior analyst of Japan power research at Refinitiv.
"But I think Japanese companies will generally hesitate to be involved in gas projects in the future, especially those with long lead times. The main reason is the country's long-term decarbonization ambition," she said.
Japan's support for gas clashes with findings that new investments in gas, which is mainly composed of the greenhouse gas methane and produces CO2 emissions when burned for energy, would undermine climate goals.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said no new investments in fossil fuel supply can be made if the world is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit).
But, gas investments have been lucrative for Japan's energy companies resulting in record profits.
Other G7 nations, including Germany, have also spent money on LNG infrastructure after the Ukraine invasion.
Japan's is also acutely dependent on gas from Russia, the country's third-largest supplier, especially from the Sakhalin Island LNG project.
"IMPORTANT RESOURCE"
Because of that dependency, Japanese energy companies are keen to diversify their gas supply sources to include Australia and the U.S.
Trading house Marubeni Corp (8002.T) believes gas "will be utilised as a very important resource in the future", Chief Executive Officer Masumi Kakinoki said last week.
Tokyo Gas (9531.T), the Japanese capital's main gas supplier with assets in LNG and other fossil fuels, also hailed the G7 language on gas as it plans to keep investing in gas infrastructure in Asia and U.S. shale gas upstream assets.
Japan's biggest oil refiner Eneos Holdings (5020.T) plans to invest 180 billion yen over the three years in its oil and gas upstream segment, including for the additional development of LNG in Asia.
But, Japan's stated intention to lower its carbon emissions may mean these gas investments carry some risk.
The G7 climate and energy ministers also set big new collective targets for solar power and offshore wind capacity, agreeing to speed up renewable energy, which may eat into gas demand.
The IEA sees global gas consumption reaching a plateau this decade and data from Japan's finance ministry shows that demand in the country is on a downwards trajectory over the past few months.
Gas assets, both upstream and LNG, could start to be seen as stranded already in around 2030, Refinitiv's Nobuoka said.
"New investments in gas not only risk being stranded but will also likely fail to deliver the needed transition", said Maria Pastukhova, senior policy advisor at independent climate think tank E3G.
"There are ample clean energy solutions that can deliver energy access and security faster and in a more sustainable way."
News round-up, May 16, 2023
As the sun rises and the world slowly awakens, my mind drifts to the philosophical concept of the "Principle of Sufficient Reason."
It was four o'clock in the morning, and the light of the new day was present here in Karlstad, Sweden, a beautiful city near the border of Norway, just one hundred and fifty-eight kilometres from Oslo. The light of early dawn reminded me of a piece I wrote last year on the famous chess match between Fischer and Spassky in Reykjavik, Iceland, back in 1972.
The article, "Fischer vs. Spassky, draw, game no. 20”, an analog on the present natural gas supply crisis rocking Europe, drew comparisons between the intensity of the match and the ongoing energy crisis in the continent:
—”To be more precise, it is tucked away in the icy Atlantic Ocean in its northern universe, far from the economic and geopolitical nightmares of its smaller cousin, the Baltic Sea. If there is one fascinating thing because of its complexity and inexplicable intelligence, it is the creation of the biospheres in which we live and, why not say it, the conception of man. The same unknowns arise concerning the diversity of the ecosystems that envelop the planet and never cease to amaze us with their insightful and mysterious compositions. In Iceland, many of these paradigms converge. The light of the solar constellation shines with such intensity during the summer, causing a strange phenomenon - for those of us who are not from there, of course - during which night disappears, and brightness spreads throughout the twenty-four hours of the day. Then, that same stream of brightness fades as autumn approaches and disappears entirely in winter, turning into eternal darkness that troubles the human soul.
When I read some perceptive journalistic observations this morning from various sources throughout the world. Among them, an essay published in Le Monde Diplomatique, entitled: —“The global South defies the West on Ukraine… Pursuing self-interest in a multipolar world, caught my attention as it presented a unique perspective on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The truth belongs to everyone; no media outlet should ever be judged for their views. The "your truth" or "my truth" concept is intriguing but ultimately flawed. As individuals, we are all seekers of truth and not possessors. It's crucial to remember that even if we don't fully comprehend the truth, we can still stand up for it or reject it.
That said, speaking of Ukraine, its history dates to the year 882 when Kievan Rus was established, a federation of several East Slavic tribes, with the territory of Ukraine in the centre. It soon became the largest and most powerful state in Europe. However, in 1256, it was invaded by the Mongols, meaning there is little knowledge about it today. After its disintegration from Kievan Rus, one of the principalities of Galicia-Volhynian became the Kingdom of Ruthenia. It joined Lithuania in 1349, forming the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Ruthenian, and Austinian. This territory was incorporated into the Republic of the Two Nations two centuries later, which joined present-day Poland and Lithuania. In 1648, the Cossack Ukraine was formed after the Khmelnytskyi rebellion, lasting until the mid-eighteenth century, when it would disappear after years of progressive division. Most of the Ukrainian territory would remain within the Russian Empire created in 1721.
Also, the history of Ukraine can be analyzed through literature, and what better choice than the story of Anton Chekhov: “The Lady with the Dog", first published in 1899, it describes an adulterous affair between an unhappily married Moscow banker and a young married woman that begins while both are vacationing alone in Yalta. Or its political history with “The Yalta Conference” in the Russian resort town of Crimea from February 4-11, 1945. It was a meeting of the minds between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin. They came together to create a new geopolitical order during World War Two. This conference played a crucial role in shaping the post-war world, and its far-reaching implications are still felt today.
Without a doubt, every situation can be simple or difficult depending on your point of view. Who is more difficult to pin down than former US President Donald Trump. President Trump is currently the focus of multiple articles in the worldwide press since the Durham report severely condemns the FBI's 2016 Trump campaign investigation. However, before passing any judgments, it is imperative to consider everything.
We all have unique complexities that exist within us. These intricacies can be a mixture of fears, insecurities, frustrations, and anxieties we carry throughout life. As Confucius said, some individuals enjoy finding faults in others. These insecurities can be especially damaging when it comes from a loved one, such as a partner, mother, father, or even a politician. However, it's important to remember that politicians have been the same throughout history (BC or AC), no matter who's in power.
Humans have always been interested beings that seek explanations for the world's mysteries. The "Principle of Sufficient Reason " has greatly influenced our understanding of causality and how things happen. It suggests that everything that occurs must have a reason behind it and that it defines the outcome. This concept is fundamental in philosophy and has helped us develop a more rational and logical approach to understanding the world. By using this approach, we can examine events and phenomena more effectively and come up with logical explanations that satisfy our needs; regrettably, this hasn't always been the case.
If we apply the "Principle of Sufficient Reason," we could determine whether it had sufficient justification in the first case, which refers to Ukraine, to limit it to the following assertion:
— It is undeniable that stable and reliable power and fuel supply are crucial for the electric industry. We must not overlook this fact. However, we can be hopeful that politicians have learned from past mistakes. A prime example is Europe, which once relied on a single pipeline and a lone supplier, resulting in a tragic error.
—In the instance of former President Donald Trump, who has the well-deserved moniker "hard to kill, the antagonistic media, to the point of losing consciousness, have made the former head of state a victim with all the possibilities of being president again in 2024 as described in the article of the Spiegel: Horror Scenario Germany Prepares for Possible Re-Election of Donald Trump. Berlin is preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump could beat Joe Biden in the next election. That outcome would likely be a disaster for Ukraine, NATO, and the looming climate crisis. Diplomats have begun establishing contacts with the former president's camp to avoid being blindsided as they were in 2016.
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Pursuing self-interest in a multipolar world
The global South defies the West on Ukraine
The US and the West claim Russia’s war on Ukraine is a clash between democracy and autocracy. Elsewhere, past US military interventions, and self-serving failures to act, produce different conclusions.
LE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUE BY ALAIN GRESH Durham report sharply criticizes FBI’s 2016 Trump campaign probe
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Outlook highlights widening divide between booming demand in the developing world and lackluster requirements in Europe and North America
WSJ BY WILL HORNER, MAY 16, 2023 French bank BNP to stop funding new gas projects
The move follows repeated criticisms from activists that the banking giant is falling short on climate protection.
LE MONDE WITH AFP, MAY 11, 2023 Macron’s calls for ‘regulatory pause’ in EU environmental laws wink at conservatives
He said that, compared to other nations, "we have already approved several environmental legislation at the European level."
POLITICO EU BY FEDERICA DI SARIO AND GIORGIO LEALI, MAY 12, 2023 Vietnam approves plan to boost wind, LNG by 2030
According to government estimates, the plan will require $134.7 billion in capital for new power plants and grids, with some of that money likely to come from foreign investors.
REUTERS BY KHANH VU AND FRANCESCO GUARASCIOMikhail Svetlov/Editing by Germán & Co As the sun rises and the world slowly awakens, my mind drifts to the philosophical concept of the "Principle of Sufficient Reason."
It was four o'clock in the morning, and the light of the new day was present here in Karlstad, Sweden, a beautiful city near the border of Norway, just one hundred and fifty-eight kilometres from Oslo. The light of early dawn reminded me of a piece I wrote last year on the famous chess match between Fischer and Spassky in Reykjavik, Iceland, back in 1972.
The article, "Fischer vs. Spassky, draw, game no. 20”, an analog on the present natural gas supply crisis rocking Europe, drew comparisons between the intensity of the match and the ongoing energy crisis in the continent:
—”To be more precise, it is tucked away in the icy Atlantic Ocean in its northern universe, far from the economic and geopolitical nightmares of its smaller cousin, the Baltic Sea. If there is one fascinating thing because of its complexity and inexplicable intelligence, it is the creation of the biospheres in which we live and, why not say it, the conception of man. The same unknowns arise concerning the diversity of the ecosystems that envelop the planet and never cease to amaze us with their insightful and mysterious compositions. In Iceland, many of these paradigms converge. The light of the solar constellation shines with such intensity during the summer, causing a strange phenomenon - for those of us who are not from there, of course - during which night disappears, and brightness spreads throughout the twenty-four hours of the day. Then, that same stream of brightness fades as autumn approaches and disappears entirely in winter, turning into eternal darkness that troubles the human soul.
When I read some perceptive journalistic observations this morning from various sources throughout the world. Among them, an essay published in Le Monde Diplomatique, entitled: —“The global South defies the West on Ukraine… Pursuing self-interest in a multipolar world, caught my attention as it presented a unique perspective on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The truth belongs to everyone; no media outlet should ever be judged for their views. The "your truth" or "my truth" concept is intriguing but ultimately flawed. As individuals, we are all seekers of truth and not possessors. It's crucial to remember that even if we don't fully comprehend the truth, we can still stand up for it or reject it.
That said, speaking of Ukraine, its history dates to the year 882 when Kievan Rus was established, a federation of several East Slavic tribes, with the territory of Ukraine in the centre. It soon became the largest and most powerful state in Europe. However, in 1256, it was invaded by the Mongols, meaning there is little knowledge about it today. After its disintegration from Kievan Rus, one of the principalities of Galicia-Volhynian became the Kingdom of Ruthenia. It joined Lithuania in 1349, forming the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Ruthenian, and Austinian. This territory was incorporated into the Republic of the Two Nations two centuries later, which joined present-day Poland and Lithuania. In 1648, the Cossack Ukraine was formed after the Khmelnytskyi rebellion, lasting until the mid-eighteenth century, when it would disappear after years of progressive division. Most of the Ukrainian territory would remain within the Russian Empire created in 1721.
Also, the history of Ukraine can be analyzed through literature, and what better choice than the story of Anton Chekhov: “The Lady with the Dog", first published in 1899, it describes an adulterous affair between an unhappily married Moscow banker and a young married woman that begins while both are vacationing alone in Yalta. Or its political history with “The Yalta Conference” in the Russian resort town of Crimea from February 4-11, 1945. It was a meeting of the minds between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin. They came together to create a new geopolitical order during World War Two. This conference played a crucial role in shaping the post-war world, and its far-reaching implications are still felt today.
Without a doubt, every situation can be simple or difficult depending on your point of view. Who is more difficult to pin down than former US President Donald Trump. President Trump is currently the focus of multiple articles in the worldwide press since the Durham report severely condemns the FBI's 2016 Trump campaign investigation. However, before passing any judgments, it is imperative to consider everything.
We all have unique complexities that exist within us. These intricacies can be a mixture of fears, insecurities, frustrations, and anxieties we carry throughout life. As Confucius said, some individuals enjoy finding faults in others. These insecurities can be especially damaging when it comes from a loved one, such as a partner, mother, father, or even a politician. However, it's important to remember that politicians have been the same throughout history (BC or AC), no matter who's in power.
Humans have always been interested beings that seek explanations for the world's mysteries. The "Principle of Sufficient Reason " has greatly influenced our understanding of causality and how things happen. It suggests that everything that occurs must have a reason behind it and that it defines the outcome. This concept is fundamental in philosophy and has helped us develop a more rational and logical approach to understanding the world. By using this approach, we can examine events and phenomena more effectively and come up with logical explanations that satisfy our needs; regrettably, this hasn't always been the case.
If we apply the "Principle of Sufficient Reason," we could determine whether it had sufficient justification in the first case, which refers to Ukraine, to limit it to the following assertion:
— It is undeniable that stable and reliable power and fuel supply are crucial for the electric industry. We must not overlook this fact. However, we can be hopeful that politicians have learned from past mistakes. A prime example is Europe, which once relied on a single pipeline and a lone supplier, resulting in a tragic error.
—In the instance of former President Donald Trump, who has the well-deserved moniker "hard to kill, the antagonistic media, to the point of losing consciousness, have made the former head of state a victim with all the possibilities of being president again in 2024 as described in the article of the Spiegel: Horror Scenario Germany Prepares for Possible Re-Election of Donald Trump. Berlin is preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump could beat Joe Biden in the next election. That outcome would likely be a disaster for Ukraine, NATO, and the looming climate crisis. Diplomats have begun establishing contacts with the former president's camp to avoid being blindsided as they were in 2016.
Most read…
Pursuing self-interest in a multipolar world
The global South defies the West on Ukraine
The US and the West claim Russia’s war on Ukraine is a clash between democracy and autocracy. Elsewhere, past US military interventions, and self-serving failures to act, produce different conclusions.
Le Monde Diplomatique by Alain GreshDurham report sharply criticizes FBI’s 2016 Trump campaign probe
Special counsel says “extremely troublesome” failures appear to stem from bias that kept agents from carefully examining evidence
WP By Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein, May 15, 2023 China’s Demand for Oil Hits Record as IEA Raises Global Forecasts
Outlook highlights widening divide between booming demand in the developing world and lackluster requirements in Europe and North America
WSJ By Will Horner, May 16, 2023French bank BNP to stop funding new gas projects
The move follows repeated criticisms from activists that the banking giant is falling short on climate protection.
Le Monde with AFP, May 11, 2023Macron’s calls for ‘regulatory pause’ in EU environmental laws wink at conservatives
He said that, compared to other nations, "we have already approved several environmental legislation at the European level."
POLITICO EU BY FEDERICA DI SARIO AND GIORGIO LEALI, MAY 12, 2023 Vietnam approves plan to boost wind, LNG by 2030
According to government estimates, the plan will require $134.7 billion in capital for new power plants and grids, with some of that money likely to come from foreign investors.
By Khanh Vu and Francesco GuarascioAndrés Gluski, CEO of energy and utility AES CorpHow can strategic investment achieve both economic growth and social progress?… What is the role of renewable energy and battery storage in achieving the goals of the low-carbon economy?…
The AES Corporation President Andrés Gluski, Dominican Republic Minister of Industry and Commerce Victor Bisonó, and Rolando González-Bunster, CEO of InterEnergy Group, spoke at the Latin American Cities Conferences panel on "Facilitating Sustainable Investment in Strategic Sectors" on April 12 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Today's events
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Today's events 〰️
Neutral country? Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia, October 2019
Mikhail Svetlov/Editing by Germán & CoPursuing self-interest in a multipolar world
The global South defies the West on Ukraine
The US and the West claim Russia’s war on Ukraine is a clash between democracy and autocracy. Elsewhere, past US military interventions, and self-serving failures to act, produce different conclusions.
Le Monde Diplomatique by Alain GreshIs the war in Ukraine a global ‘battle between democracy and autocracy’, as US president Joe Biden calls it, a view echoed by almost all Western commentators and politicians? No, says American journalist Robert D Kaplan, ‘however counter-intuitive that seems. After all, Ukraine itself for many years has been a weak, corrupt, institutionally underdeveloped basket case of a democracy.’ Reporters Without Borders ranked it 97th out of 180 in its 2021 World Press Freedom Index. ‘The fight,’ Kaplan continued, ‘is for something broader and more fundamental: the right of peoples the world over to determine their own futures and to be free from naked aggression’ (1). And he makes the obvious point that many dictatorships are US allies.
As positions become entrenched in wartime, dissenting voices on Ukraine are rarely heard in the richer North. But in the South, the so-called ‘rest of the world’ to which the majority of humanity belongs, people see this conflict quite differently. World Health Organisation president Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus lamented that the world does not give equal importance to Black and white lives, or to those of Yemenis and Tigrayans compared with Ukrainians: ‘Some are more equal than others’ (2). He drew the same conclusion during the Covid-19 crisis.
This is one of the reasons why many countries, especially in Africa, have abstained from UN resolutions on Ukraine — and not just dictatorships but also South Africa, Armenia, Mexico, Senegal, Brazil and India (3). A small number of non-Western countries have adopted sanctions on Russia.
As Trita Parsi (4), executive vice-president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft thinktank, pointed out in late March after the Doha Forum (a gathering of more than 2,000 international politicians, journalists and intellectuals), the countries of the South ‘largely sympathise with the plight of the Ukrainian people and view Russia as the aggressor. But Western demands that they make costly sacrifices by cutting off economic ties with Russia to uphold a “rules-based order” have begotten an allergic reaction. That order hasn’t been rules-based; instead, it has allowed the US to violate international law with impunity.’
Why Saudi Arabia backs ‘neutrality’
The stance of key US ally Saudi Arabia, which didn’t join the campaign against Russia and instead called for negotiations between the two parties, is emblematic. A series of factors has encouraged its ‘neutrality’. The creation of OPEC+ in 2020, which brought Russia into negotiations on oil production quotas, has resulted in fruitful cooperation between Moscow and the kingdom, which even sees the relationship as ‘strategic’ (5) — doubtless over-optimistically. Observers noted that in August 2021 Saudi deputy defence minister Prince Khalid bin Salman attended the Moscow arms fair and signed a military cooperation agreement complementing his country’s longstanding collaboration with Russia on civil nuclear development.
Today we are witnessing the beginning of a shift towards a multipolar system. The position of some countries on this war does not seek to defend the principles of freedom and democracy but their interests in maintaining the existing world order.
Al-Riyadh
More broadly, Russia has become a key interlocutor in all regional crises as the only power with ongoing relations with all participants, including those at odds, or even at war, with each other: Israel and Iran; the Houthis and the United Arab Emirates (UAE); Turkey and Kurdish groups.
At the same time, relations between Riyadh and Washington are deadlocked. The dominant view in Saudi Arabia is that the US is no longer a trustworthy ally, given its abandonment of Egypt’s president Hosni Mubarak in 2011, its abject withdrawal from Afghanistan, its willingness to negotiate the Iran nuclear deal without considering its regional allies’ reservations, and its silence in the face of Houthi drone attacks on Saudi oil installations, even when their friend Donald Trump was still president. And things have only got worse since the election of Joe Biden, who threatened to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah following journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder in October 2018, for which US intelligence agencies blame the all-powerful Saudi crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS). Biden has also criticised the Saudis’ role in the war in Yemen.
These US positions brought no policy shift from the Democratic administration, except for Biden’s refusal to have any direct contact with MBS. This went down badly in Riyadh. When President Biden finally tried to contact MBS, specifically to ask the kingdom to increase oil production to offset the embargo against Russia, MBS refused to take his call, according to the Wall Street Journal (6). Riyadh wonders why it was contacted last and its support taken for granted.
The Saudi press has been critical of the US too. As the influential Saudi daily Al-Riyadh said, ‘The old world order that emerged after the second world war was bipolar; then it became unipolar after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today we are witnessing the beginning of a shift towards a multipolar system.’ And it added, pointedly, ‘The position of some countries on this war does not seek to defend the principles of freedom and democracy but their interests in maintaining the existing world order’ (7).
‘Last chance for US hegemony’
A similar position is widely shared in the Middle East, based on two sets of arguments. First, that Russia does not bear sole responsibility for the war, which is above all a confrontation between great powers for world hegemony, and that what is at stake is not respect for international law, and therefore it does not concern the Arab world. An op-ed in Al-Ahram, the unofficial daily of the Egyptian government (another US ally), described ‘a broader confrontation between the US and Western countries on one side and countries that reject their hegemony over the world on the other. The US seeks to recalibrate the world order after realising that — in its current form — it does not achieve its interests, but rather strengthens China at its expense. The US is terrified of the impending end of its dominion over the world, and it is aware that the current conflict in Ukraine is the last chance to preserve this position’ (8).
The Arab media’s other line of argument is that the West has double standards. Democracy and freedom? War crimes? Peoples’ right to self-determination? Is the US, which bombed Serbia and Libya, and invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, best qualified to defend international law? Hasn’t it also used cluster munitions, phosphorous bombs and depleted uranium projectiles? The US military’s crimes in Afghanistan and Iraq have been widely documented but never prosecuted. And, without denigrating the Ukrainians’ suffering, thus far the destruction inflicted on Afghanistan and Iraq far exceeds the current tragedy.
Should Vladimir Putin be brought before the International Criminal Court? Washington has yet to ratify its statute. One op-ed noted the ironic contrast between the 2003 Economist front cover of George W Bush post-Iraq invasion under the headline ‘Now, the waging of peace’ and its recent cover showing Putin in profile, with a tank for a brain, and the headline ‘Where will he stop?’ (9).
Palestine has been completely occupied for decades (whereas Ukraine has only been partially occupied for a few weeks) and remains an open wound in the Middle East. Yet it inspires no solidarity among Western governments, which continue to give Israel carte blanche. Mohammad Kreishan writes, ‘It is worth remembering the chants shouted at demonstrations, the angry declarations that, over years and decades, have begged for help for the Palestinian people, bombed in Gaza or living under the threat of incursions, murders, assassinations, land seizures and house demolitions in the West Bank, an area that all international resolutions regard as occupied territory’ (10).
President Zelensky’s appeal to the Knesset, drawing a parallel between his country’s situation and that of an Israel ‘threatened with destruction’, outraged many. But he didn’t get the expected support from Tel Aviv, which remains close to Moscow (11). And finally, the differential treatment given to white European refugees from Ukraine and those from the ‘rest of the world’ — brown, Black and mixed race — has caused bitterness in the Middle East and throughout the South.
It can be countered that this is nothing new: Arab opinion and media have always been anti-Western; ‘the Arab street’, as European and North American governments sometimes contemptuously call it, carries little weight. After all, in the first Gulf war (1990-91), Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria let themselves be drawn into the war alongside the US against the wishes of their people. However, in the case of Ukraine, these countries, even long-standing US allies, have distanced themselves from Washington — Saudi Arabia is not alone. On 28 February, a few days after the Russian invasion, UAE foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow and welcomed the close ties between their countries. And Egypt did not respond to G7 ambassadors’ undiplomatic injunction to condemn the Russian invasion. Even Morocco, another faithful US ally, conveniently missed the 2 March UN General Assembly vote on Ukraine.
At the same time, the US, with tens of thousands of soldiers stationed in the Gulf, bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE, and the Fifth Fleet on constant patrol, remains a major player in the region and it may be risky to ignore or even antagonise it. Especially since the various Arab countries — and the South more broadly — have not adopted their stance with the purpose of restructuring the world or mounting strategic opposition to the North — unlike the non-aligned movement in the 1960s and 70s, which allied with the socialist camp — but out of perceived self-interest. To paraphrase Palmerston, in the post-cold war era, states no longer have permanent friends or sponsors, they have fluctuating, faltering, time-limited allies. Will Russia’s setbacks and the sanctions imposed on it lead some of them to rethink their indulgence towards Moscow?
As old ideological divisions fade, and with Washington’s promises of a ‘new international order’ made after the first Gulf war (1990-91) abandoned in the Iraqi sand, a multipolar world is emerging amid the chaos. It offers greater room for manoeuvre to the ‘rest of the world’. But the flag of revolt against the West and its disorder does not (yet) constitute a roadmap for a world run according to international law rather than the rule of the strongest.
*Alain Gresh is a journalist and director of the online journals Orient XXI and Afrique XXI.
Special counsel John Durham leaves federal court in Washington last year. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP)/Editing by Germán & CoDurham report sharply criticizes FBI’s 2016 Trump campaign probe
Special counsel says “extremely troublesome” failures appear to stem from bias that kept agents from carefully examining evidence
WP By Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein, May 15, 2023 Special counsel John Durham has issued a long-awaited report that sharply criticizes the FBI for investigating the 2016 Trump campaign based on “raw, unanalyzed, and uncorroborated intelligence” — a conclusion that may fuel rather than end partisan debate about politicization within the Justice Department and FBI.
Durham was tapped in 2019 by President Donald Trump’s attorney general, William P. Barr, to reexamine how government agents hunted for possible links between the Trump campaign and Russian efforts to interfere in the presidential election. The very appointment — of an investigator to reinvestigate the investigators — led to significant criticism from current and former law enforcement officials.
The report, coming almost four years to the day since Durham’s assignment began, will probably be derided by Democrats as the end of a partisan boondoggle. Republicans will have to wrestle with a much-touted investigation that has cost taxpayers more than $6.5 million and didn’t send a single person to jail, even though Trump once predicted that Durham would uncover the “crime of the century.”
On Monday, Trump nevertheless claimed victory, posting on social media that the report showed “the American Public was scammed, just as it is being scammed right now by those who don’t want to see GREATNESS for AMERICA!”
Much of the FBI conduct described by the Durham report was previously known and had been denounced in a 2019 report by the Justice Department’s inspector general, which did not find “documentary or testimonial evidence of intentional misconduct.”
Durham goes further in his criticism, however, arguing that the FBI rushed to investigate Trump in a case known as Crossfire Hurricane, even as it proceeded cautiously on allegations related to then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. In particular, the report notes that while the FBI warned Clinton’s team when agents learned of possible evidence by a foreign actor to garner influence with her, agents did not give a similar defensive briefing to the Trump campaign before quickly launching an investigation.
The FBI’s handling of key aspects of the case was “seriously deficient,” Durham wrote, causing the agency “severe reputational harm.” That failure could have been prevented if FBI employees hadn’t embraced “seriously flawed information” and instead followed their “own principles regarding objectivity and integrity,” the report said.
As examples of confirmation bias by the FBI, Durham cites: the FBI decision to go forward with the probe despite “a complete lack of information from the Intelligence Community that corroborated the hypothesis upon which the Crossfire Hurricane investigation was predicated”; agents ignoring information that exonerated key suspects in the case; and the FBI being unable to corroborate “a single substantive allegation” in a dossier of Trump allegations compiled by British former spy Christopher Steele.
Durham’s appointment as special counsel was unusual, in that Barr essentially tasked him with investigating the work done for a prior special counsel: Robert S. Mueller III. Durham’s probe produced paltry results in court: Two people that he charged with crimes were found not guilty, while a former FBI lawyer pleaded guilty to altering an email used to help a colleague prepare a court application for surveillance of a Trump adviser.
After the second acquittal last year, Democrats and some lawyers urged the Justice Department to shut down Durham’s office as a waste of taxpayer money and time.
The report issued Monday said Durham and his team conducted more than 48o interviews, reviewed more than 1 million documents, executed seven search warrants and, with a grand jury, served more than 190 subpoenas.
It ended with a short recommendation for the FBI: Create a position for an FBI agent or lawyer to provide oversight of politically sensitive investigations. That person would be tasked with challenging every step of such investigations, including whether officials appropriately adhered to the rules governing applications to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, which handles matters of national security.
After the inspector general’s 2019 report criticizing the FBI’s conduct, Director Christopher A. Wray implemented many changes at the agency, which has been at the center of fierce political debates since the 2016 election.
The senior FBI officials who ran the Crossfire Hurricane investigation left the agency years ago. But they have long said the bureau had a duty to investigate the allegations against the Trump campaign.
Durham sent his report to Attorney General Merrick Garland on Friday, and Garland sent it to top members of the Senate and House judiciary committees on Monday afternoon, a Justice Department official said. The report contains no classified information, and Garland told lawmakers he released the report with no “additions, redactions, or other modifications.” Garland did not submit to Congress a 29-page classified appendix but said he would arrange for members to view it.
In a statement responding to the report, the FBI said the conduct in 2016 and 2017 that Durham examined “was the reason that current FBI leadership already implemented dozens of corrective actions, which have now been in place for some time. Had those reforms been in place in 2016, the missteps identified in the report could have been prevented. This report reinforces the importance of ensuring the FBI continues to do its work with the rigor, objectivity, and professionalism the American people deserve and rightly expect.”
A longtime federal prosecutor who was U.S. attorney in Connecticut during the Trump administration, Durham had previously taken on politically sensitive investigations in Washington — including cases involving the CIA and the FBI. But the special counsel appointment was his highest profile and most politically charged undertaking.
When the inspector general, Michael Horowitz, issued his findings in 2019, Durham took the unusual step of publicly disagreeing with him on a key point — disputing Horowitz’s finding that the decision to open the investigation into Trump’s campaign was justified.
“Based on the evidence collected to date, and while our investigation is ongoing, last month we advised the Inspector General that we do not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened,” Durham said at the time.
Yet on Monday, he appeared to back away from that criticism, writing “there is no question that the FBI had an affirmative obligation to closely examine” allegations brought to the agency by an Australian diplomat who told them of alarming statements made over drinks by a low-level Trump adviser, George Papadopoulos.
The status of key investigations involving Donald Trump
Durham’s report suggests he thinks the FBI should have opened a preliminary investigation, rather than a full investigation, based on the Australian’s tip. The report highlights a conversation between two FBI officials at the time who appeared to bemoan the weakness of the new case.
“Damn that’s thin,” wrote one FBI official in early August 2016. “I know,” replied another, “it sucks.”
Durham’s final report comes against a backdrop of two failed prosecutions. Igor Danchenko — a private researcher who was a primary source for a dossier of allegations about Trump’s alleged ties to Russia — was acquitted in October of lying to the FBI about where he got his information. Durham personally argued much of the government’s case in that trial, in federal court in Alexandria.
Last year, a jury in D.C. federal court acquitted cybersecurity lawyer Michael Sussmann, whom Durham also had charged with lying to the FBI. A former FBI lawyer, Kevin Clinesmith, was sentenced to one year of probation after admitting in a 2020 plea deal with Durham that he had altered a government email used to justify secret surveillance of a former Trump campaign adviser, Carter Page.
The report means Durham’s time as a special counsel is coming to an end, while two other special counsels continue: one to investigate Trump and people close to him for classified documents found at his home, as well as events leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, and another to investigate President Biden and people close to him for classified documents found at his home and office.
Image by Germán & CoChina’s Demand for Oil Hits Record as IEA Raises Global Forecasts
Outlook highlights widening divide between booming demand in the developing world and lackluster requirements in Europe and North America
WSJ By Will Horner, May 16, 2023China’s insatiable demand for oil is growing at a faster-than-expected pace, threatening to tighten crude markets and send oil prices higher as supplies struggle to keep up, the International Energy Agency said.
The Paris-based agency’s latest outlook points to a widening divide between booming demand for crude across the developing world and lackluster demand in Europe and North America where economic prospects look bleak.
It also highlights a growing disconnect between oil prices—which have tumbled to their lowest levels in around 16 months in recent weeks—and expectations that strong demand for oil and limited supplies will prompt a sharp deficit that many analysts expect to lift oil prices.
In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 200,000 barrels a day, to 2.2 million barrels a day. It said total demand would stand at 102 million barrels a day, 100,000 barrels a day more than it forecast last month.
China’s share of that increase, already expected to be large, appeared to be growing and “continues to surpass expectations,” the IEA said. The nation’s crude demand hit a record 16 million barrels a day in March while China will account for 60% of all oil demand growth this year, the IEA said.
While demand is set to boom in China and across the developing world, high interest rates and lingering inflation in developed nations are keeping demand for oil there in check. Efforts by Western governments to encourage a shift away from polluting fossil fuels are further heightening that gap as developing economies continue to see oil and coal as more affordable fuel sources.
Oil demand in the developed nations that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will grow by just 350,000 barrels a day this year, the IEA said—around 16% of the total expected oil demand growth. The rest, around 1.9 million barrels a day, will come from non-OECD nations, primarily in Asia.
As oil demand grows this year, the IEA expects the oil market to slip into a large deficit as oil producers struggle to keep pace. Demand is expected to exceed supply in the current quarter for the first time since early 2022, with that gap growing to around 2 million barrels a day by the end of the year.
China will account for 60% of all oil demand growth this year, the IEA said. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS
For 2023, global supplies are expected to average 101.1 million barrels a day, 1.2 million barrels a day more than in 2022.
Recent steps by major oil producers have only added to that growing gap. A plan by some of the largest members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production by more than a million barrels a day began this month. Meanwhile, oil producers in the U.S. have been reluctant to invest money in new production.
Those OPEC cuts could see output from the group and its allied producers—known collectively as OPEC+—fall by 850,000 barrels a day between April and the end of the year, the IEA expects. Meanwhile, output from non-OPEC+ nations is expected to rise by 710,000 barrels a day in that time.
Despite the IEA’s forecasts for a tightening oil market, crude prices have remained subdued, offering some relief to economies and consumers struggling with high inflation. Concerns about the health of the U.S. banking system have been the latest issue to dog the outlook for global economic growth and weigh on crude prices.
Meanwhile, supplies from Russia have remained stronger than expected, helping to further depress prices. Russian oil exports hit 8.3 million barrels a day in April, their highest level since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as Moscow doesn’t appear to have fully followed through on a plan to slash output by 500,000 barrels a day, the IEA said.
Brent crude oil, the international oil benchmark, hit its lowest level since December 2021 this month. It ticked up 0.6% to $75.71 a barrel on Tuesday, following the release of the IEA report.
The forecast of strong Chinese demand and a growing deficit from the IEA—and from other major energy forecasters such as the Energy Information Administration and OPEC—is why many analysts are expecting oil prices will rebound this year.
“The current market pessimism…stands in stark contrast to the tighter market balances we anticipate in the second half of the year,” the IEA said.
Extinction Rebellion France activists hold a pipeline replica after spraying paint on a BNP Paribas bank building during a protest against TotalEnergies and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline project, in Paris, France, on January 20, 2023. The slogan reads "The bank of a dying world." SARAH MEYSSONNIER/REUTERSFrench bank BNP to stop funding new gas projects
The move follows repeated criticisms from activists that the banking giant is falling short on climate protection.
Le Monde with AFP, May 11, 2023French banking giant BNP Paribas said on Thursday, May 11, that it would stop financing new natural gas field projects following repeated criticisms from activists that it is falling short on climate protection.
Although the policy change is a break from the past, when BNP had pumped cash into gas projects, the group did not rule out continuing to finance firms doing such work as long as its money does not go directly to fossil development.
The bank also made official Thursday that it is "no longer providing any financing dedicated to the development of new oil fields" − although it said in January that it has made no such investments since 2016.
Similarly to gas, BNP will not withhold money from firms opening up new oil fields as long as its cash is not directly used for that purpose.
But as part of a longer-term plan stretching to 2030, the bank is "phasing out financing to non-diversified oil exploration and production" companies.
The steps contribute to BNP's wider aim to reduce its investments in oil exploration and production by 80% by the end of the decade.
With an eye on 2050 net zero targets from the International Energy Agency, the bank announced new objectives for its investment in steel, aluminum and cement production.
BNP aims to reduce so-called intensity of emissions − the amount of carbon dioxide emitted to create each tonne of the final product − by 25% for steel, 10% for aluminum and 24% for cement by 2030, compared with 2022 levels, or 2021 for cement.
The bank said it was "on track" for similar reductions announced last year for oil and gas, power generation and the car industry.
Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country
…Armando Rodríguez, vice-president and executive director of the company, talks to us about their projects in the DR, where they have been operating for 32 years.
More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
French President Emmanuel Macron | Pooled photo by Ludovic Marin/AFP/Editing by Germán & CoMacron’s calls for ‘regulatory pause’ in EU environmental laws wink at conservatives
He said that, compared to other nations, "we have already approved several environmental legislation at the European level."
POLITICO EU BY FEDERICA DI SARIO AND GIORGIO LEALI, MAY 12, 2023 BRUSSELS/PARIS — It’s been months that EU centre-right lawmakers have been championing a backlash against environmental regulation, arguing it’s at odds with other — more strategic — EU objectives.
Now, a senior voice is adding to the chorus of those asking for a freeze.
During a speech on how to revive the French industry on Thursday at the Elysée, President Emmanuel Macron called for “a European regulatory break.”
“We have already passed lots of environmental regulations at European level, more than other countries,” he said. “Now we should be implementing them, not making new changes in the rules or we are going to loose all our [industrial] players.”
He insisted that, when it comes to the regulatory side, the EU is “ahead of the Americans, the Chinese and of any other power in the world.”
"We must not make new changes to the rules," he added, warning that an unstable regulatory environment would only cause harm to investments.
Macron’s calls for putting a break on a new stream of laws aiming at reversing environmental damage look oddly in line with the arguments that emerged at last week’s gathering of the European People’s Party (EPP),, where senior MEPs gathered in Munich took a hard stance against new rules on pesticides and nature restoration. Moving ahead with them, they claimed, meant endangering the EU’s long-term food security.
In an interview with POLITICO, German MEP Christian Ehler, who leads the Parliament’s work on the Net-Zero Industry Act, which aims at boosting the bloc's manufacturing capacity of clean energy technologies, repeatedly cautioned against a fast-tracked phaseout of per- and polyfluorinated substances (PFAS) — harmful chemicals that linger in the environment. He was clear that, with no easy way to replace them, a speedy ban could end up delaying the continent’s green industry ambitions.
That’s a position that EPP’s main political rivals — the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) — slam as disingenuous.
“That being pro-industry or pro-farmers means that you cannot protect climate, environment and biodiversity at the same time [is] a myth,” said Mohammed Chahim, S&D vice chair. He stressed that hitting pause on environmental laws until next years’ elections would only result in a “year thrown away” in the fight against climate change.
Elysée’s officials were quick to make clear that Macron was not attacking any existing or upcoming EU environmental text.
“He never talked about a moratorium or repeal of rules that already exist or are under negotiation,” stressed an Elysée official, noting that Macron’s point was mainly about implementing existing rules before adding new ones.
His comments sparked immediate criticism not only from the opposition but even from his more climate-friendly allies.
"Any speech that gives the feeling that we have done enough and that it is sufficient is a dangerous speech in the phase that is starting," said Barbara Pompili, a former French environment minister with Macron, currently an MP. “You should never send slow-down messages,” she warned.
French MEP Pascal Canfin from Macron’s Renew Europe Group told Le Monde that Macron made an “unfortunate” [malheureux] comment, as it could have caused misunderstanding, while stressing that, unlike the EPP, Macron was not calling for freezing environmental texts that are under discussion in Brussels.
Centre-right politicians immediately stressed that they have been the first ones calling for less rules and to argue that Macron’s comments are in contradiction with its green policies.
“For months, we the EPP have been demanding a legislative moratorium to put an end to the excess of standards that hits all those who produce and work in Europe,” Francois-Xavier Bellamy, a French MEP for the EPP, said in a written statement, arguing that “the Macronist elected representatives, on the other hand, are pushing with the left and the Greens for the most restrictive regulations.”
The fact that Macron’s comments sparked mixed reactions and fuelled misunderstanding is no surprise for Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, an energy expert and director at the Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE) in Paris. Macron is not new to using catchy expressions — such as the ones on not being “America’s followers” or on NATO’s brain death — which “agitate the media.”
“If Macron is suggesting to first focus on implementing the existing EU green rules and those that are being adopted in this mandate, then that's also what the European Commission is saying," he noted, adding that the use of the term "regulatory pause" was "maybe a bit clumsy, given its meaning in the EU context."
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Power-generating windmill turbines are pictured at a wind park in Bac Lieu province, Vietnam, July 8, 2017. REUTERS/Kham/File Photo/Editing by Germán & CoVietnam approves plan to boost wind, LNG by 2030
According to government estimates, the plan will require $134.7 billion in capital for new power plants and grids, with some of that money likely to come from foreign investors.
By Khanh Vu and Francesco GuarascioHANOI, May 16 (Reuters) - Vietnam said on Tuesday it has approved a long-awaited power plan for this decade, in a move meant to boost wind energy and gas, while reducing reliance on coal.
Known as PDP8, the plan aims to ensuring energy security for the Southeast Asian country while it begins the transition to becoming carbon-neutral by mid-century.
The plan needs $134.7 billion of funding for new power plants and grids, the government estimated, with part of the money expected to come from foreign investors.In December, the Group of Seven (G7) nations and other wealthier countries pledged $15.5 billion in initial funds to support Vietnam's transition away from coal.
Amid internal squabbles and work on complex reforms, the plan had been delayed for more than two years. It has seen a dozen of draft versions before being approved by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, and now needs approval from the rubber-stamp parliament, possibly this month, before its final adoption.
A diplomat from the G7 donors' group, who declined to be identified as he not authorised to speak to media, said on Tuesday the approval was an important step and necessary to unlock funding for renewable projects, especially offshore wind. It was, however, not completely in line with G7 goals, the diplomat added, as Vietnam will still be heavily reliant on coal this decade.
To complete its planned transition to carbon-neutrality with total phase-out of coal by 2050, the government estimates it needs up to $658 billion, of which one-fifth would have to be disbursed this decade.
The plan would more than double Vietnam's power generation capacity to more than 150 GW by 2030 from 69 GW at the end of 2020.
Reuters GraphicsGAS, WIND AND COAL
Power plants using domestic gas and imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) are set to become a crucial source of power by 2030, with a combined installed capacity of 37.33 GW, or 24.8% of the total, with LNG accounting for the lion's share, according to a government document seen by Reuters and not yet published.
That is a fourfold increase from 2020, when the country produced just about 9 GW of natural gas from fields in the South China Sea. It is not importing any LNG at the moment.
Wind, solar and other renewable sources, excluding hydropower, are set to cover at least nearly 31% of the country's energy needs by 2030, the government said, from about 25% in 2020. Their contribution could raise to 47% if G7 pledges are fully implemented, the document said.
Wind will account for 18.5% of the total power mix, most of it onshore, whereas the contribution from solar energy would fall nearly threefold to 8.5%.
Offshore wind power capacity, which is of particular interest to foreign investors, is expected to reach six GW by the end of this decade from zero now and at least 70 GW by 2050. The plan slightly revised down the initial target of seven GW by 2030, as Reuters reported earlier in May.
But it is unclear how fast new projects could be launched, as the country may still need to approve new legislation on the use of marine space.
In the energy mix by 2030, hydropower would account for 19.5%, down from over 30% in 2020.
Coal would remain a crucial energy source, accounting for 20% of the mix by 2030, but down from nearly 31% in 2020. However, because of the expected jump in total output, energy generated from coal would increase to more than 30 GW by the end of the decade, from 21 GW in 2020.