News round-up, Wednesday, December 21, 2022
Most read…
It was the sort of dry panel discussion that occurs at hundreds of industry conferences every year — until a Google representative decided it was time to unleash.
“This is personal for me,” Jamey Goldin, an energy regulation lawyer at Google, told those attending a May conference in Atlanta on renewable energy in the Southeast. He said he had grown up on a ridge overlooking Plant Bowen, a coal-fired power plant northwest of Atlanta owned by Georgia Power, the dominant electricity utility in the state, and then directed his comments at a lobbyist for the utility’s parent company, also on the panel: “Y’all got a lot of coal running up there, a lot of smoke going up in the air.”
NYT
The final act of Donald Trump's presidency played out in the House of Representatives, on December 19. At the end of its work, the select committee formed after the attack by militiamen and Trump supporters against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, inspired by his incendiary and conspiracy rhetoric, recommended that the Department of Justice initiate criminal proceedings against the man it believes instigated the events.
Le Monde
Image: design. Germán & Co
“Google and others contend that the markets have brought cost savings, innovation and the capital needed to increase clean power generation from wind and solar. The most recent move toward a form of power market, in a group of Western states, has saved nearly $3 billion since 2014, according to the market operator.”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
“The final act of Donald Trump’s presidency played out in the House of Representatives, on December 19. At the end of its work, the select committee formed after the attack by militiamen and Trump supporters against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, inspired by his incendiary and conspiracy rhetoric, recommended that the Department of Justice initiate criminal proceedings against the man it believes instigated the events.”
Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…
Clean Energy Quest Pits Google Against Utilities
Google says its goals for carbon-free power are impeded by state-regulated utilities, particularly in the Southeast, that lack a competitive market.
By Peter Eavis
Reporting from Atlanta
Dec. 20, 2022
It was the sort of dry panel discussion that occurs at hundreds of industry conferences every year — until a Google representative decided it was time to unleash.
“This is personal for me,” Jamey Goldin, an energy regulation lawyer at Google, told those attending a May conference in Atlanta on renewable energy in the Southeast. He said he had grown up on a ridge overlooking Plant Bowen, a coal-fired power plant northwest of Atlanta owned by Georgia Power, the dominant electricity utility in the state, and then directed his comments at a lobbyist for the utility’s parent company, also on the panel: “Y’all got a lot of coal running up there, a lot of smoke going up in the air.”
Overturning the system that puts nearly all power generation in the Southeast in the hands of utilities like Georgia Power would “get a lot more renewable energy online and a lot of that dirty power offline,” Mr. Goldin added.
But the outburst was more than personal. It was part of a far-reaching campaign by Google to power its operations with increasing amounts of electricity from wind, solar and other generating sources that do not emit carbon.
Google, Meta, Microsoft and Apple, among others, have made eliminating their carbon emissions a prominent corporate goal — and have set not-too-distant deadlines to get there. Google wants to buy enough carbon-free electricity to power all its data centers and campuses around the world without interruption by the end of this decade.
The corporate quest to rapidly secure vast new amounts of renewable energy faces big challenges, however — not least in the Southeast, one of the country’s fastest-growing regions. And Google’s battle in the region, where it has a major concentration of data centers, raises a question that applies to the energy transition everywhere: Is what’s good for a few companies good for all?
At the heart of their campaign, Google and its tech giant allies want to dismantle a decades-old regulatory system in the Southeast that allows a handful of utilities to generate and sell the region’s electricity — and replace it with a market in which many companies can compete to do so.
Such markets exist in some form in much of the country, but the Southeastern utilities are staunchly defending the status quo. Senior utility executives contend that their system better insulates consumers from spikes in prices of commodities like natural gas, promotes reliability and supports the long-term investments needed to develop clean-power technologies.
“We absolutely are superior in every regard to those markets over time,” Thomas A. Fanning, chief executive of Southern Company, Georgia Power’s parent company, said in an interview.
A Revolution Avoided
Most electricity in the United States was long generated and distributed by heavily regulated monopoly utilities in each state. But just before the start of this century, lawmakers and regulators, arguing that competition would bring efficiencies, made it possible to set up power markets and end the dominance of the utilities — a revolution that bypassed the Southeast.
Google and others contend that the markets have brought cost savings, innovation and the capital needed to increase clean power generation from wind and solar. The most recent move toward a form of power market, in a group of Western states, has saved nearly $3 billion since 2014, according to the market operator.
Self-interest also plays a role: In power markets, large companies can strike deals with independent producers that give them more leeway to bargain on price and secure more clean energy. Google entered a landmark deal last year to provide clean power to its data centers in Virginia, which is in a sprawling market called PJM.
Now supporters of the approach have an opportunity to usurp the utilities in the Southeast. South Carolina passed a law in 2020 to explore setting up a power market, a move considered remarkable because of the influence the utilities have in state capitals; similar legislation failed to advance in North Carolina last year.
Tom Davis, a Republican state senator in South Carolina who spearheaded the bill, said the current regulatory system financially rewarded utilities even when they messed up. “It’s not incentivizing them to go out there and try to find somebody who’s built a better mousetrap and can generate power more cheaply,” he said.
Setting up a power market within South Carolina is one option, but Caroline Golin, Google’s global head of energy market development and policy, went further at a legislative hearing in July, raising the possibility of South Carolina’s breaking out of the Southeast utility system and joining PJM.
“We can be a model for the rest of the region, and actually be a model for the rest of the country,” she said.
Markets and Renewables
The big utilities in the Southeast are now building more solar projects, but those pushing for a market in the region say it’s not enough.
In the region, the proposed solar projects’ generating capacity is equivalent to just over a fourth of total capacity, which is far below the 80 percent for PJM, according to an analysis by Tyler Norris, a senior executive at Cypress Creek Renewables, a solar company, and a special adviser in the Energy Department during the Obama administration.
“Project developers are attracted to open wholesale electricity markets with price transparency, independent oversight and the ability to trade with multiple potential customers,” Mr. Norris said.
To show how markets can stoke the growth of renewables, supporters sometimes point to Texas, whose power market, ERCOT, is one of least regulated in the country. Last year, wind power accounted for nearly 23 percent of Texas’ generation, up from 8 percent in 2011.
Critics say the Texas market system led to much of the fragility that caused power outages during the winter storm that was responsible for over 200 deaths in 2021. But others note that ERCOT was structurally isolated from neighboring power markets, preventing it from drawing power from those areas when plants in the ERCOT market froze up in the storm.
In addition, some experts question the degree to which markets drive the growth of renewables, saying certain states’ geography and weather lend themselves to wind and solar power. With its vast and gusty unpopulated spaces, Texas is naturally set up for wind power.
“We happen to have seen more wind and solar in areas where markets have been deregulated,” said Severin Borenstein, a professor of business administration and public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, who specializes in the economics of renewable energy. “But I think that’s more of a geographic and political phenomenon than a market phenomenon.”
And in the Southeast there is evidence that government mandates can do more than markets to promote the growth of renewables.
In North Carolina, where lawmakers have long pushed the development of solar energy, the power source made up 7.6 percent of net generation last year, well above the national average and double the share in neighboring Virginia, in a market.
“We expect North Carolina to continue to be a leading state for solar,” said Erin Culbert, a spokeswoman for Duke Energy, which is a major utility operator in the Southeast.
United States: The Capitol attack and Donald Trump's devastating legacy
EDITORIAL
Even after the January 6th committee recommended prosecution against the former president, the Republican Party still finds itself unable to stand up to him.
Le Monde
Published on December 20, 2022
The final act of Donald Trump's presidency played out in the House of Representatives, on December 19. At the end of its work, the select committee formed after the attack by militiamen and Trump supporters against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, inspired by his incendiary and conspiracy rhetoric, recommended that the Department of Justice initiate criminal proceedings against the man it believes instigated the events.
The charges are serious: inciting an insurrection, conspiracy to defraud the United States, obstructing an official proceeding (the certification of the results of the 2020 presidential election), and making false statements. The severity of these charges reflects a situation unprecedented in the history of the United States: a full-fledged coup attempt.
These recommendations add a full stop to a presidential term of sound and fury, punctuated by two impeachments in the House of Representatives, which was controlled by the Democrats but where Republicans will have the majority in January. With the exception of a handful of conservative elected officials who paid for it with their political careers, the Republicans did everything to prevent the work of this committee from having a cathartic effect, to the great misfortune of American institutions.
It will now be up to Special Counsel Jack Smith, appointed on November 18 by Attorney General Merrick Garland, to decide whether or not to prosecute all or some of these charges. He will face the delicate task of investigating a man who has already declared himself a candidate for the next presidential election and who is determined to denounce, once again, once too many, a political maneuver.
Blindness
Mr. Smith will have at his disposal thousands of documents accumulated by the select committee during its work. This makes for rich material, despite the refusal to testify from close advisers to the former president, some of whom the committee also recommends prosecuting.
Two lessons can already be drawn from this provisional epilogue. The first is about the Republican Party, which is apparently incapable of opposing the man who has been dragging them down since he became their mentor. If they end up turning away from him, it will be less out of a democratic reflex than out of the realization that Mr. Trump is making his side lose by being unable to get out of denial about Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election – as evidenced by the midterm election results. This blindness is all the more regrettable seeing as the defeats suffered by the candidates most mired in the lie of a stolen election show that it has become a red line for many voters in the United States.
The second lesson, fed by the work of the House select committee, is in fact a reminder. The most serious threats to American democracy today come from a supremacist far right, whose rhetoric Mr. Trump has trivialized. The weight of militias that were at the forefront of the January 6 attack are evidence of this. This situation is, unfortunately, not unique to the United States. The dismantling of an extremist network in Germany that also targeted the country's institutions bears witness to the same insurrectionary temptation. This calls for increased vigilance.
News round-up, Wednesday, December 21, 2022
Most read…
It was the sort of dry panel discussion that occurs at hundreds of industry conferences every year — until a Google representative decided it was time to unleash.
“This is personal for me,” Jamey Goldin, an energy regulation lawyer at Google, told those attending a May conference in Atlanta on renewable energy in the Southeast. He said he had grown up on a ridge overlooking Plant Bowen, a coal-fired power plant northwest of Atlanta owned by Georgia Power, the dominant electricity utility in the state, and then directed his comments at a lobbyist for the utility’s parent company, also on the panel: “Y’all got a lot of coal running up there, a lot of smoke going up in the air.”
NYT
The final act of Donald Trump's presidency played out in the House of Representatives, on December 19. At the end of its work, the select committee formed after the attack by militiamen and Trump supporters against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, inspired by his incendiary and conspiracy rhetoric, recommended that the Department of Justice initiate criminal proceedings against the man it believes instigated the events.
Le Monde
Image: design. Germán & Co
“Google and others contend that the markets have brought cost savings, innovation and the capital needed to increase clean power generation from wind and solar. The most recent move toward a form of power market, in a group of Western states, has saved nearly $3 billion since 2014, according to the market operator.”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
“The final act of Donald Trump’s presidency played out in the House of Representatives, on December 19. At the end of its work, the select committee formed after the attack by militiamen and Trump supporters against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, inspired by his incendiary and conspiracy rhetoric, recommended that the Department of Justice initiate criminal proceedings against the man it believes instigated the events.”
Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…
Clean Energy Quest Pits Google Against Utilities
Google says its goals for carbon-free power are impeded by state-regulated utilities, particularly in the Southeast, that lack a competitive market.
By Peter Eavis
Reporting from Atlanta
Dec. 20, 2022
It was the sort of dry panel discussion that occurs at hundreds of industry conferences every year — until a Google representative decided it was time to unleash.
“This is personal for me,” Jamey Goldin, an energy regulation lawyer at Google, told those attending a May conference in Atlanta on renewable energy in the Southeast. He said he had grown up on a ridge overlooking Plant Bowen, a coal-fired power plant northwest of Atlanta owned by Georgia Power, the dominant electricity utility in the state, and then directed his comments at a lobbyist for the utility’s parent company, also on the panel: “Y’all got a lot of coal running up there, a lot of smoke going up in the air.”
Overturning the system that puts nearly all power generation in the Southeast in the hands of utilities like Georgia Power would “get a lot more renewable energy online and a lot of that dirty power offline,” Mr. Goldin added.
But the outburst was more than personal. It was part of a far-reaching campaign by Google to power its operations with increasing amounts of electricity from wind, solar and other generating sources that do not emit carbon.
Google, Meta, Microsoft and Apple, among others, have made eliminating their carbon emissions a prominent corporate goal — and have set not-too-distant deadlines to get there. Google wants to buy enough carbon-free electricity to power all its data centers and campuses around the world without interruption by the end of this decade.
The corporate quest to rapidly secure vast new amounts of renewable energy faces big challenges, however — not least in the Southeast, one of the country’s fastest-growing regions. And Google’s battle in the region, where it has a major concentration of data centers, raises a question that applies to the energy transition everywhere: Is what’s good for a few companies good for all?
At the heart of their campaign, Google and its tech giant allies want to dismantle a decades-old regulatory system in the Southeast that allows a handful of utilities to generate and sell the region’s electricity — and replace it with a market in which many companies can compete to do so.
Such markets exist in some form in much of the country, but the Southeastern utilities are staunchly defending the status quo. Senior utility executives contend that their system better insulates consumers from spikes in prices of commodities like natural gas, promotes reliability and supports the long-term investments needed to develop clean-power technologies.
“We absolutely are superior in every regard to those markets over time,” Thomas A. Fanning, chief executive of Southern Company, Georgia Power’s parent company, said in an interview.
A Revolution Avoided
Most electricity in the United States was long generated and distributed by heavily regulated monopoly utilities in each state. But just before the start of this century, lawmakers and regulators, arguing that competition would bring efficiencies, made it possible to set up power markets and end the dominance of the utilities — a revolution that bypassed the Southeast.
Google and others contend that the markets have brought cost savings, innovation and the capital needed to increase clean power generation from wind and solar. The most recent move toward a form of power market, in a group of Western states, has saved nearly $3 billion since 2014, according to the market operator.
Self-interest also plays a role: In power markets, large companies can strike deals with independent producers that give them more leeway to bargain on price and secure more clean energy. Google entered a landmark deal last year to provide clean power to its data centers in Virginia, which is in a sprawling market called PJM.
Now supporters of the approach have an opportunity to usurp the utilities in the Southeast. South Carolina passed a law in 2020 to explore setting up a power market, a move considered remarkable because of the influence the utilities have in state capitals; similar legislation failed to advance in North Carolina last year.
Tom Davis, a Republican state senator in South Carolina who spearheaded the bill, said the current regulatory system financially rewarded utilities even when they messed up. “It’s not incentivizing them to go out there and try to find somebody who’s built a better mousetrap and can generate power more cheaply,” he said.
Setting up a power market within South Carolina is one option, but Caroline Golin, Google’s global head of energy market development and policy, went further at a legislative hearing in July, raising the possibility of South Carolina’s breaking out of the Southeast utility system and joining PJM.
“We can be a model for the rest of the region, and actually be a model for the rest of the country,” she said.
Markets and Renewables
The big utilities in the Southeast are now building more solar projects, but those pushing for a market in the region say it’s not enough.
In the region, the proposed solar projects’ generating capacity is equivalent to just over a fourth of total capacity, which is far below the 80 percent for PJM, according to an analysis by Tyler Norris, a senior executive at Cypress Creek Renewables, a solar company, and a special adviser in the Energy Department during the Obama administration.
“Project developers are attracted to open wholesale electricity markets with price transparency, independent oversight and the ability to trade with multiple potential customers,” Mr. Norris said.
To show how markets can stoke the growth of renewables, supporters sometimes point to Texas, whose power market, ERCOT, is one of least regulated in the country. Last year, wind power accounted for nearly 23 percent of Texas’ generation, up from 8 percent in 2011.
Critics say the Texas market system led to much of the fragility that caused power outages during the winter storm that was responsible for over 200 deaths in 2021. But others note that ERCOT was structurally isolated from neighboring power markets, preventing it from drawing power from those areas when plants in the ERCOT market froze up in the storm.
In addition, some experts question the degree to which markets drive the growth of renewables, saying certain states’ geography and weather lend themselves to wind and solar power. With its vast and gusty unpopulated spaces, Texas is naturally set up for wind power.
“We happen to have seen more wind and solar in areas where markets have been deregulated,” said Severin Borenstein, a professor of business administration and public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, who specializes in the economics of renewable energy. “But I think that’s more of a geographic and political phenomenon than a market phenomenon.”
And in the Southeast there is evidence that government mandates can do more than markets to promote the growth of renewables.
In North Carolina, where lawmakers have long pushed the development of solar energy, the power source made up 7.6 percent of net generation last year, well above the national average and double the share in neighboring Virginia, in a market.
“We expect North Carolina to continue to be a leading state for solar,” said Erin Culbert, a spokeswoman for Duke Energy, which is a major utility operator in the Southeast.
United States: The Capitol attack and Donald Trump's devastating legacy
EDITORIAL
Even after the January 6th committee recommended prosecution against the former president, the Republican Party still finds itself unable to stand up to him.
Le Monde
Published on December 20, 2022
The final act of Donald Trump's presidency played out in the House of Representatives, on December 19. At the end of its work, the select committee formed after the attack by militiamen and Trump supporters against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, inspired by his incendiary and conspiracy rhetoric, recommended that the Department of Justice initiate criminal proceedings against the man it believes instigated the events.
The charges are serious: inciting an insurrection, conspiracy to defraud the United States, obstructing an official proceeding (the certification of the results of the 2020 presidential election), and making false statements. The severity of these charges reflects a situation unprecedented in the history of the United States: a full-fledged coup attempt.
These recommendations add a full stop to a presidential term of sound and fury, punctuated by two impeachments in the House of Representatives, which was controlled by the Democrats but where Republicans will have the majority in January. With the exception of a handful of conservative elected officials who paid for it with their political careers, the Republicans did everything to prevent the work of this committee from having a cathartic effect, to the great misfortune of American institutions.
It will now be up to Special Counsel Jack Smith, appointed on November 18 by Attorney General Merrick Garland, to decide whether or not to prosecute all or some of these charges. He will face the delicate task of investigating a man who has already declared himself a candidate for the next presidential election and who is determined to denounce, once again, once too many, a political maneuver.
Blindness
Mr. Smith will have at his disposal thousands of documents accumulated by the select committee during its work. This makes for rich material, despite the refusal to testify from close advisers to the former president, some of whom the committee also recommends prosecuting.
Two lessons can already be drawn from this provisional epilogue. The first is about the Republican Party, which is apparently incapable of opposing the man who has been dragging them down since he became their mentor. If they end up turning away from him, it will be less out of a democratic reflex than out of the realization that Mr. Trump is making his side lose by being unable to get out of denial about Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election – as evidenced by the midterm election results. This blindness is all the more regrettable seeing as the defeats suffered by the candidates most mired in the lie of a stolen election show that it has become a red line for many voters in the United States.
The second lesson, fed by the work of the House select committee, is in fact a reminder. The most serious threats to American democracy today come from a supremacist far right, whose rhetoric Mr. Trump has trivialized. The weight of militias that were at the forefront of the January 6 attack are evidence of this. This situation is, unfortunately, not unique to the United States. The dismantling of an extremist network in Germany that also targeted the country's institutions bears witness to the same insurrectionary temptation. This calls for increased vigilance.
News round-up, Monday, December 19, 2022
Most read…
EU carbon market reform: A major step forward for Europe's 2030 climate goal
An agreement was reached on Sunday between the Commission, the European Parliament and member states. The Council and MEPs still need to vote on it.
Le Monde
Qatar Got the World Cup It Wanted
In the end, after a tournament shadowed by controversy since the host rights were awarded, Qatar had the turn in the global spotlight it sought.
NYT
Our weapons are computers’: Ukrainian coders aim to gain battlefield edge
Delta software developed to help collect and disseminate information about enemy’s movements
The Guardian
Image: design. Germán & Co
“Since 2005, the most polluting industries (power generation, steel, cement, and so on), which account for 40% of the EU’s CO2 emissions, have been required to buy “polluter permits” on the emissions trading scheme (ETS). The idea is to encourage decarbonization and create revenue for the energy transition. But this “polluter pays” principle has not made heavy industry reduce its carbon emissions. It benefits from millions of free allowances, created to avoid relocation, and the price per ton of CO2 has long remained too low to be an incentive.”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
“The tiny desert state, a thumb-shaped peninsula, craved nothing more than to be better known, to be a player on the world stage, when in 2009 it launched what seemed like an improbable bid to stage the men’s soccer World Cup, the most popular sporting event on earth. Hosting the tournament has cost more than anyone could have imagined — in treasure, in time, in lives.”
Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…
EU carbon market reform: A major step forward for Europe's 2030 climate goal
An agreement was reached on Sunday between the Commission, the European Parliament and member states. The Council and MEPs still need to vote on it.
By Audrey Garric
Published on December 19, 2022
The European Parliament in Strasbourg, December 12, 2022. JEAN-FRANCOIS BADIAS / AP
It's the centerpiece of its climate plan. After lengthy negotiations, the European Union (EU) reached an agreement on Sunday, December 18, on a far-reaching reform of its carbon market. The agreement marks an important step in advancing the climate ambitions of the EU-27. It is part of the extensive legislative package presented by the Commission in July 2021 to reduce European emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
The agreement reached on Sunday in trialogue between the Commission, the European Parliament and member states, must still be confirmed by a vote by the Council in December and MEPs in January or February 2023.
Since 2005, the most polluting industries (power generation, steel, cement, and so on), which account for 40% of the EU's CO2 emissions, have been required to buy "polluter permits" on the emissions trading scheme (ETS). The idea is to encourage decarbonization and create revenue for the energy transition. But this "polluter pays" principle has not made heavy industry reduce its carbon emissions. It benefits from millions of free allowances, created to avoid relocation, and the price per ton of CO2 has long remained too low to be an incentive.
To put pressure on the market, the number of polluter rights will be gradually reduced. As a result, the sectors covered by the carbon market will have to reduce their emissions by 62% by 2030 compared to 2005, ahead of a previous target reduction of 43%. The price of carbon – currently around €85 per ton of CO2 – "will be around €100 for these industries. No other continent in the world has such an ambitious carbon price," said Pascal Canfin, Renew MEP and chair of the European Parliament's environment committee. He described the new European agreement as "major" for the climate. NGOs from Climate Action Network Europe noted that a 70% reduction in these emissions would have been necessary for the EU to do its "fair share" in limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
The carbon market will be extended for the first time to the maritime sector and to intra-European air travel. Waste incineration sites will also be subject to it from 2028, or 2030 at the latest, according to a study by the Commission.
Social Climate Fund
Revenues from this carbon market will have to be entirely devoted to "climate-related activities." While the majority of EU countries have not done so until now, "this is a step forward. "Unfortunately, the content of this spending remains at the discretion of member states. This means that they could continue, as before, to use this money to subsidize coal and fossil gas," warned Romain Laugier, climate and energy officer at WWF Europe, lead author of a study on the subject.
Sunday's agreement established a second carbon market (ETS 2) for road transport fuels and building heating, a reform pushed by the Commission and Germany in particular, but which is particularly controversial. Suppliers of fuel, gas and heating oil will have to buy allowances to cover their emissions, an additional cost that they could pass on to households. To limit the social impact in the context of soaring energy prices and the war in Ukraine, and four years after the Yellow Vests movement, MEPs argued for limiting this measure initially to office buildings and heavy vehicles.
Ultimately, households will be affected from 2027, but the price of carbon will not exceed €45 until 2030. "For France, it will be a matter of replacing the current carbon price of €44 with a European mechanism of €45," said Mr. Canfin. And if the current surge in energy prices continues, implementation would be postponed to 2028. All revenues from this new carbon market will have to be "devoted to an equitable transition," Mr. Canfin continued.
These revenues will be used to finance a social climate fund, the counterpart to the new carbon market, which will start operating in 2026. Forecast to raise €86.7 billion by 2032, it will finance both temporary measures to support vulnerable households and micro-enterprises, and long-term investments in building renovation and low-carbon transport.
'Billions of euros in gifts'
Another particularly thorny issue is that free allowances, which industrial companies benefited from under the first carbon market, will be gradually phased out between 2026 and 2034. By 2030, 48.5% of them will have disappeared. The pace of reduction adopted is less ambitious than that proposed by the Parliament, with a start that is also much slower than what the Commission proposed. "This is a step in the right direction. We will finally have a real carbon price for industry," enthused Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, director of the EU program at the Institute for Climate Economics.
Conversely, some associations are very disappointed. "The big polluters will continue to receive billions of euros in gifts over the next decade to the detriment of climate action," lamented Camille Maury, in charge of decarbonization at the WWF's European office. According to the NGO's calculations, industrialists, who have already received the equivalent of €98.5 billion in free allowances between 2013 and 2021, could still receive more than €200 billion between 2026 and 2032 (at the current price of a ton of carbon), which is two and a half times more than the social fund for the climate.
The border carbon tax, which the EU agreed to on Tuesday, will be ramped up at the same rate as free allowances are phased out. This mechanism – which will allow goods imported from third countries without comparable carbon pricing to be taxed in the most polluting sectors – will start in 2026 and be fully implemented in 2034. This was the condition to avoid double protection for European manufacturers.
The European Parliament also wanted to ensure that manufacturers who decarbonize their production are not at a disadvantage when exporting to third countries. By 2025, the Commission will assess the risk of "carbon leakage" and, if necessary, present legislative proposals to address it. Finally, the European Innovation Fund, which helps companies invest in the energy transition, will be increased to nearly €50 billion. "We now need to build a European investment plan over time, for example within 15 years, to enable families and businesses to make a success of their green transition," Mr. Pellerin-Carlin added.
Audrey Garric
Qatar Got the World Cup It Wanted
In the end, after a tournament shadowed by controversy since the host rights were awarded, Qatar had the turn in the global spotlight it sought.
By Tariq Panja
Tariq Panja has reported on Qatar’s quest to host and stage the World Cup since the start of its bid for the tournament in 2009.
Published Dec. 18, 2022Updated Dec. 19, 2022, 3:33 a.m. ET
DOHA, Qatar — In the end, Qatar got what it wanted.
The tiny desert state, a thumb-shaped peninsula, craved nothing more than to be better known, to be a player on the world stage, when in 2009 it launched what seemed like an improbable bid to stage the men’s soccer World Cup, the most popular sporting event on earth. Hosting the tournament has cost more than anyone could have imagined — in treasure, in time, in lives.
But on Sunday night, as the fireworks filled the sky above Lusail, as the Argentina fans sang and their star, Lionel Messi, beamed while clasping a trophy he had waited a lifetime to touch, everyone knew Qatar.
The spectacular denouement — a dream final pitting Argentina against France; a first World Cup title for Messi, the world’s best player; a pulsating match settled after six goals and a penalty shootout — made sure of that. And as if to make sure, to put the nation’s final imprint on the first World Cup in the Middle East, Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, stopped a beaming Messi as he made his way to collect the biggest trophy in the sport and pulled him back. There was one more thing that needed to be done.
He pulled out a golden fringed bisht, the black cloak worn in the Gulf for special occasions, and wrapped it around Messi’s shoulders before handing over the 18-karat gold trophy.
The celebration ended a tumultuous decade for a tournament awarded in a bribery scandal; stained by claims of human rights abuses and the deaths and injuries suffered by the migrant workers hired to build Qatar’s $200 billion World Cup; and shadowed by controversial decisions on everything from alcohol to armbands.
Yet for one month Qatar has been the center of the world, pulling off a feat none of its neighbors in the Arab world had managed to achieve, one that at times had seemed unthinkable in the years since Sepp Blatter, the former FIFA president, made the stunning announcement inside a Zurich conference hall on Dec. 2, 2010, that Qatar would host the 2022 World Cup.
It is improbable the sport will see such an unlikely host again soon. Qatar was perhaps among the most ill-suited hosts for a tournament of the scale of the World Cup, a country so lacking in stadiums and infrastructure and history that its bid was labeled “high risk” by FIFA’s own evaluators. But it took advantage of the one commodity it had in plentiful supply: money.
Backed by seemingly bottomless financial resources to fuel its ambitions, Qatar embarked on a project that required nothing less than the building, or rebuilding, of its entire country in service to a monthlong soccer tournament. Those billions were spent within its borders — seven new stadiums were constructed and other major infrastructure projects were completed at enormous financial and human cost. But when that was not enough, it spent lavishly outside its boundaries, too, acquiring sports teams and sports rights worth billions of dollars, and hiring sports stars and celebrities to support its cause.
And all that was on display Sunday. By the time the final game was played in the $1 billion Lusail Stadium, Qatar could not lose. The game was being shown across the Middle East on beIN Sports, a sports broadcasting behemoth set up in the aftermath of Qatar’s winning the World Cup hosting rights. It also could lay claim to the two best players on the field, Argentina’s Messi and the French star Kylian Mbappé, both of whom are under contract to the Qatar-owned French club Paris St.-Germain.
Mbappé, who had scored the first hat trick in a final in over a half-century, finished the game sitting on the grass, consoled by President Emmanuel Macron of France, an invited guest of the emir, as Argentina’s players danced in celebration all around him.
The competition delivered compelling — and sometimes troubling — story lines from the outset, with the intensely political opening at Al Bayt Stadium, an enormous venue designed to look like a Bedouin tent. That night, Qatar’s emir had sat side by side with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, less than three years after the latter had led a punishing blockade of Qatar.
For a month, deals were discussed and alliances were made. Qatar’s team was not a factor in its World Cup debut; it lost all three of its games, exiting the competition with the worst performance of any host in the competition’s history.
There would also be other challenges, some of Qatar’s own making, like a sudden prohibition on the sale of alcohol within the stadium perimeters only two days before that first game — a last-minute decision that left Budweiser, a longtime sponsor of soccer’s world governing body, FIFA, to fume on the sideline.
On the tournament’s second day, FIFA crushed a campaign by a group of European teams to wear an armband to promote inclusivity, part of efforts promised to campaign groups and critics in their home countries, and then Qatar quashed efforts by Iranian fans to highlight ongoing protests in their country.
But on the field, the competition delivered. There were great goals and great games, stunning upsets and an abundance of surprising score lines that created new heroes, most notably in the Arab world.
First came Saudi Arabia, which can now lay claim to having beaten the World Cup champion in the group stage. Morocco, which had only once reached the knockout stage, became the first African team to advance to the semifinals, pulling off a succession of barely believable victories over European soccer heavyweights: Belgium, Spain and then Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal.
Those results sparked celebration across the Arab world and in a handful of major European capitals, while also providing a platform for fans in Qatar to promote the Palestinian cause, the one intrusion of politics that Qatari officials did nothing to discourage.
In the stands, the backdrop was a curious one, with several games appearing short of supporters and then mysteriously filling up in the minutes after kickoff, when gates were opened to grant spectators — many of them the South Asian migrants — entry free of charge. The true number of paying spectators is unlikely to ever be known, their empty seats filled by thousands of the same laborers and migrants who had built the stadium and the country, and who kept it running during the World Cup.
That group, largely drawn from countries like India, Bangladesh and Nepal, was the most visible face of Qatar to the estimated one million visitors who traveled to the tournament. They worked as volunteers at stadiums, served the food and manned the metro stations, buffed the marble floors and shined the hand rails and door knobs at the scores of newly built hotels and apartment complexes.
By the end of the tournament, most of those fans had gone, leaving the Argentines — an estimated temporary population of 40,000 — to provide the sonic backdrop to the final game. Dressed in sky blue and white stripes, they converged on the Lusail Stadium, creating the type of authentic World Cup atmosphere — bouncing and singing throughout 120 minutes of play, and then long afterward — that no amount of Qatari wealth could buy.
They had gotten exactly what they wanted from the World Cup. And so did Qatar.
Tariq Panja covers some of the darker corners of the global sports industry. He is also a co-author of “Football’s Secret Trade,” an exposé on soccer’s multibillion-dollar player trading industry. @tariqpanja
Our weapons are computers’: Ukrainian coders aim to gain battlefield edge
Delta software developed to help collect and disseminate information about enemy’s movements
Julian Borger in Zaporizhzhia
Sun 18 Dec 2022 14.11 GMT
In a nondescript office building on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian soldiers have been honing what they believed will be a decisive weapon in their effort to repel the Russian invasion.
Inside, the weapon glows from a dozen computer screens – a constantly updated portrayal of the evolving battlefield to the south. With one click on a menu, the map is populated with hordes of orange diamonds, showing Russian deployments. They reveal where tanks and artillery have been hidden, and intimate details of the units and the soldiers in them, gleaned from social media. Choosing another option from the menu lights up red arrows across the southern Zaporizhzhia region, showing the progression of Russian columns. Zooming in shows satellite imagery of the terrain in sharp detail.
It is called Delta, a software package developed by Ukrainian programmers to give their armed forces an advantage in a contest of which side can see the battlefield more clearly and therefore predict the enemy forces’ moves and strike them faster and more accurately.
While many scenes from the war in Ukraine look like a throwback to the first world war, with muddy trench networks and blasted landscapes, the conflict is also a testing ground for the future of warfare, where information and its dissemination in instantly usable form to individual soldiers will be critical to victory or defeat.
A screen showing battlefield positions, past and present. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
Vitalii, a computer expert at the defence’s ministry’s centre for innovation and development of defence technologies, said Ukraine had a natural advantage as it had a younger, less hierarchical political culture.
“The biggest differences between the Russian army and Ukrainian army are the horizontal links between the units,” Vitalii said. (Like other soldiers at the innovation centre, he provided only his first name.) “We are winning mainly because we Ukrainians are naturally horizontal communicators.”
The suite of offices in Zaporizhzhia house one of six “situational awareness centres” that Ukraine’s armed forces have set up on different fronts. A seventh is being established in the Donbas.
The Zaporizhzhia site, contributed by a local businessman, is the centre’s sixth location – it has had to move repeatedly for security and logistical reasons. It is due to be transferred to a more permanent, custom-fitted home underground this month.
Delta is run by the innovation centre, whose staff have been drawn to a large degree from a volunteer organisation of drone operators and programmers called Aerorozvidka (aerial reconnaissance).
Positions of Russian tanks spotted by drone. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
Tatiana, another official at the innovation centre, said the nature of its origins, as a private-public partnership, also gave it an edge.
“These were not bureaucrats from the defence ministry. They were from the corporate sector who were mobilised to serve in the army,” she said. “They started to make Delta with their own minds and hands, because they had this culture of agile development. The creative process has a short circle. You develop it, you test it, you launch it.”
Delta was first presented to Nato member states at the end of October, having been developed by Aerorozvidka coders in 2015 and been deployed on a growing scale over the past four years, during which time much of Aerorozvidka was absorbed into the innovation centre.
Its informal origins were evident inside the Zaporizhzhia hub, which had more the feel of a graduate computer science faculty than a military unit. The only person in uniform was a military intelligence officer, who went by the pseudonym Sergeant Shlomo.
The office at one end of the main corridor had been turned into a drone workshop where two engineers were working to perfect a bomb release mechanism activated by the light on commercially bought quadcopters. The release mechanism and the tailfin for the bombs were made on 3D printers. Boxes of armoured-piercing bomblets were stacked up by the door.
A drone with a bomblet to be used against Russian positions. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
At the other end of the corridor was the open source intelligence (Osint) department, where half a dozen young men were scrolling through masses of social media posts by Russian recruits, extracting date and location information from them, and feeding the results into Delta.
One screen showed a couple of soldiers from Dagestan striking martial poses for the camera. The picture and intelligence gleaned from it about their unit, its capabilities and orders would be accessible within minutes through one click on the Delta map near Melitopol, a Russian-held town 80 miles (130km) to the south, which is becoming one of the new focal points on the southern front.
The whiteboard in the Osint office recorded the fact that it was day 280 of the war, by which date it was estimated that 88,880 Russians had died. “Fuck them up” was the day’s message scrawled in marker alongside this tally.
The other main channels of information flowing into Delta come from satellite imagery supplied by Nato partners, which provided the foundation for the battlefield map; drone footage, which is uploaded daily; and photos and information supplied by a network of informers behind Russian lines, which are run in part by Shlomo.
All that information is embedded in layers on the Delta battlefield map, which is kept live and accessible to its military users through Starlink satellite communications. On the screen, Melitopol had the biggest concentration of orange diamonds and red arrows, showing Russian columns on the move.
A night-vision drone photo of a Russian tank. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
“We now understand their routes and how they have changed,” Shlomo said. “They are using Melitopol as a big logistics centre, and we are trying to understand the real purpose of the movements.”
They were looking in particular for sightings of tanks and mobile bridges, which could herald an intention to mount an imminent attack and warrant a particular red flag in the Delta chatrooms. Over recent days, Ukraine forces had targeted an army barracks and a bridge there.
Every day, each situational awareness centre puts together a digest of the latest developments in its sector, and there is a live briefing at 6pm summarising and discussing the conclusions.
“A small Soviet army cannot win against a large Soviet army. We have to evolve. We have to be smart,” Shlomo said. “The main task of the war for Ukraine now is to transform from a Soviet army to a Nato one. You have to change the army to a horizontal one.”
That change has been a struggle. The Ukrainian army grew out of its Soviet predecessors, and many of its older officers have been shaped by that experience. In 2020, the generals even shut down the Aerorozvidka unit; it was only restored by the defence ministry as the innovation centre months before the Russian all-out invasion.
The Donbas front is the last to establish its own situational awareness centre, in part because of resistance within the army, and as a result it has suffered most from lack of coordination and friendly fire, officials from the innovation centre argued. “It’s been total chaos,” one official said.
“I don’t think they’re quite there yet,” said Nick Reynolds, a land warfare analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “There are some centres of excellence within the Ukrainian armed forces, but it’s not blanket. The military culture imposed under the Soviet Union casts a very long shadow.”
However, Reynolds said the Ukrainians were far ahead of Russian forces in making their forces more connected and agile. “Ultimately, the Russian side has not fundamentally changed their structures or practices. They have some level of technological enablement, but on the human level they are still very Soviet.”
A screen showing a drone photo of a Russian tank. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian
A Nato report on 30 November about Ukraine’s Delta programme, seen by the Guardian, noted that the software had yet to be formally adopted by Ukraine’s armed forces, and therefore was not universally used, meaning that intelligence shared by Nato allies was not making its way down to all the regional commands.
The infowarriors at the innovations centre say they are breaking Ukrainian army official doctrine by establishing horizontal links between military units with the use of Delta. “We can’t rewrite doctrine and fight at the same time,” Tatiana said. “We will write the doctrine after victory.”
The next step in spreading Delta, she said, was the establishment of Istar (intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance) officers at the headquarters and brigade level, and then the creation of a dedicated Istar battalion.
Meanwhile, the innovation centre is asking western weapons donors to make available the software protocols that would allow new weapons systems to be seamlessly wired into Delta.
Shlomo said the integration of battlefield information across the army through Delta was a race Ukraine had to win. “This is the big story we are writing that will change the war,” he said. “Our weapons are computers. Our bullets are information.”
… as 2022 draws to a close, and you’re joining us today from Sweden, we have a small favour to ask. It’s been a challenging year for millions – from the war in Ukraine, to floods in Pakistan, heatwaves across Europe, protests in Iran, global economic turbulence, and continued repercussions from the global pandemic. The Guardian has delivered rigorous, fiercely independent reporting every day. It’s been no mean feat. Will you support our work today?
Being a reader-funded news publication allows us to keep our journalism open and free for everyone across the world. This feels more vital than ever. In 2022, millions have turned to us for trusted reporting on the events that shaped our world. We believe equal access to fact-checked news is essential for all of us.
Unlike many others, the Guardian has no shareholders and no billionaire owner, so our reporting is always free from commercial and political influence. This emboldens us to seek out the truth, and fearlessly demand better from the powerful.
Energy Crisis Tracker Real-Time Statistics on Europe's Gas Supplies
Most read…
Recent turbulence hasn’t just been reserved for global gas prices.
Private households in Germany have also been affected. This has become particularly noticeable for new customers, for whom the average price per kilowatt hour has increased significantly since fall 2021. Further price jumps followed Russia’s attack on Ukraine and due to reduced gas deliveries starting in June 2022.
(Spiegel)
Image: Germán & Co
“How much natural gas is flowing through pipelines to Europe? How full are gas storage facilities? And how much gas are Germans consuming? Keep your eye on the data with our live tracker.”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…
Spiegel
By Holger Dambeck, Lisa Goldschmidtböing, Frank Kalinowski, Ferdinand Kuchlmayr, Aída Márquez, Dawood Ohdah, Marcel Pauly, Matthias Stahl und Patrick Stotz
19.12.2022
How Dependent Is Europe on Russian Gas?
Only a few European countries produce a significant amount of natural gas themselves.
Almost all rely on imports, mainly by pipeline from Russia, Norway and Algeria. In addition, there are imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from various countries around the world. Deliveries are usually made by special tankers bound for ports with LNG terminals. The share of imports from Russia has fallen in recent months, but LNG deliveries have increased overall.
Dependence on Russia has been particularly high in Eastern Europe and Germany in recent years.
These countries are often located directly along Russian pipelines and usually don’t have their own LNG terminals or pipelines to other major gas exporters like Norway or Algeria. In absolute quantities, Germany has recently consumed the largest total volume of Russian gas of any European country.
How Does Gas Get to Europe?
Until recently, four main routes led from Russia to the European Union.
Recently, the focus was primarily on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs from Russia beneath the Baltic Sea to Lubmin, Germany, near the city of Greifswald. Pipeline operator Gazprom initially throttled deliveries in mid-June 2022 to 40 percent of normal capacity, purportedly due to technical problems. Then, following annual maintenance in July, Gazprom further reduced flows to 20 percent of capacity. At the end of August, Russia once again interrupted delivery, again for alleged maintenance work, and has not recommenced deliveries through the pipeline since then. In late September, a large leak in the pipeline was discovered. It is unclear if deliveries through the pipeline will ever resume.
In addition to Nord Stream 1, Russian gas supplies were also delivered
through the Yamal-Europe pipeline running through Belarus and Poland, and the Progress and Soyuz pipelines through Ukraine, as well as the Turkstream via Turkey in the south. No gas has been flowing through the Yamal pipeline since mid-May, after Russia halted deliveries. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is imported through various port terminals, most of which are located in Western Europe.
How Full Are Germany's Gas Storage Facilities?
Gas storage facilities serve as important reserves for the winter, but also as interim storage for large LNG deliveries.
If all of Germany’s storage facilities were filled to capacity, their gas volume of slightly less than 250,000 gigawatt-hours could not even cover a quarter of Germany’s annual demand, which was around 1 million gigawatt hours in 2021. To get through the winter unscathed, Germany thus needs not only for its storage facilities to be as full as possible, but also continuous supplies from pipelines or LNG terminals.
How Much Gas Does Germany Consume?
The amount of gas burned by households and industry depends on two primary factors:
the weather and the price of gas. The situation on the electricity market can also influence gas demand. During periods of low sunlight and low winds, gas-fired plants must be fired up to meet the electricity demand. The weather at the beginning of 2022 was significantly milder than the previous year, thus requiring less heat. In addition, people cut back on their use of gas, largely in industry – a direct response to the sharp increase in gas prices. That’s why consumption in 2022 was almost consistently below the average of previous years.
The beginning of the 2022/2023 heating season has made clear that private households and commercial customers are also using less natural gas.
Almost every week, they are consuming less gas than in weeks from the previous years in which temperatures were comparable.Haz que se destaque
How the efforts to save gas have developed over time is shown by the following comparison of actual consumption with expected consumption given the current temperatures.
Since as early as spring 2022, Germany has been consuming significantly less gas than in the same weather conditions in previous years. Most recently, the savings have been around 15 to 25 percent.
How Much Money Does Russia Generate with Its Gas Exports?
Overall, Russia has supplied less gas to Europe in recent months than in previous years.
Still, revenues from gas exports have increased. This is due to the sharp increase in global market prices. The main cause of the turbulence on the gas market is the conflict over Ukraine, which Russia has been waging as a war of aggression since February 2022.
How Have Gas Prices Developed for New Customers?
Recent turbulence hasn’t just been reserved for global gas prices.
Private households in Germany have also been affected. This has become particularly noticeable for new customers, for whom the average price per kilowatt hour has increased significantly since fall 2021. Further price jumps followed Russia’s attack on Ukraine and due to reduced gas deliveries starting in June 2022.
News round-up, Friday, December 16, 2022
Most read…
Bribery Case Cracks Open European Parliament — and Finds Hidden Cash
Prosecutors say the glamorous lifestyle of a European lawmaker masked a Qatari corruption scandal. It exposed how vulnerable Brussels is to foreign influence.
NYT
The Death of a Forced Friendship
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Ends an Era in Finland
Russia and Finland once maintained close relations that were partly imposed by Moscow. Since Putin's invasion of Ukraine, though, the Finns are strengthening their defenses and striving to join NATO. For many, it marks the end of an era.
Image: Spiegel, design. Germán & Co
“She was giving statements that were much more pro-Qatar than the Parliament’s position, pretending to speak on behalf of Parliament,” Ms. Neumann said in an interview with The Times.”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
“The Baltic Sea Goes NATO
Even the Baltic Sea, which lies under the gray sky just a few paces behind Lenin’s pedestal, will soon no longer be the same. Finland expects to be admitted to NATO next year, together with Sweden. Northern Europe is saying goodbye to the idea of neutrality. And the inland sea will soon become almost completely under NATO control, with a bit of Russia at its easternmost tip. Over the summer, U.S. President Joe Biden said: “Putin was looking for the Finlandization of Europe. He’s going to get the ‘NATOization’ of Europe.””
Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…
Bribery Case Cracks Open European Parliament — and Finds Hidden Cash
Prosecutors say the glamorous lifestyle of a European lawmaker masked a Qatari corruption scandal. It exposed how vulnerable Brussels is to foreign influence.
Mr. Giorgi’s lawyer had no comment. Italy’s La Repubblica newspaper reported Thursday, citing sealed court documents, that Mr. Giorgi was cooperating with investigators.
Qatar has forcefully denied the allegations.
The investigation has jolted sleepy Brussels and unleashed a flurry of whispered accusations of corrupt behavior by lawmakers of all political stripes. It has also sparked scrutiny of foreign influence at a time when the European Union is asserting itself on issues like human rights and the war in Ukraine.
Apart from Qatar, the Belgian authorities are also investigating links to Morocco, a government official familiar with the matter said.
A Brief Guide to the 2022 World Cup
What is the World Cup? The quadrennial event pits the best national soccer teams against each other for the title of world champion. Here’s a primer to the 2022 men’s tournament:
Where is it being held? This year’s host is Qatar, which in 2010 beat the United States and Japan to win the right to hold the tournament. Whether that was an honest competition remains in dispute.
When is it? The tournament opened on Nov. 20, when Qatar played Ecuador. Over the two weeks that follow, four games will be played on most days. The tournament ends with the final on Dec. 18.
Is a winter World Cup normal? No. The World Cup usually takes place in July. But in 2015, FIFA concluded that the summer temperatures in Qatar might have unpleasant consequences and agreed to move the tournament to the relatively bearable months of November and December.
How many teams are competing? Thirty-two. Qatar qualified automatically as the host, and after years of matches, the other 31 teams earned the right to come and play. Meet the teams here.
How does the tournament work? The 32 teams are divided into eight groups of four. In the opening stage, each team plays all the other teams in its group once. The top two finishers in each group advance to the round of 16. After that, the World Cup is a straight knockout tournament.
How can I watch the World Cup in the U.S.? The tournament will be broadcast on Fox and FS1 in English, and on Telemundo in Spanish. You can livestream it on Peacock, or on streaming services that carry Fox and FS1. Here’s how to watch every match.
When will the games take place? Qatar is three hours ahead of London, eight hours ahead of New York and 11 hours ahead of Los Angeles. That means there will be predawn kickoffs on the East Coast of the United States for some games, and midafternoon starts for 10 p.m. games in Qatar.
“It has been a difficult week in Brussels,” Roberta Metsola, the president of the European Parliament, told E.U. leaders on Thursday. “There will always be some for whom a bag of cash is always worth the risk. It is essential that these people understand that they will get caught.”
Investigators in Washington, too, have tried to crack down on illegal foreign lobbying, including for Qatar, which has separately been accused of bribing its way into being awarded the World Cup. But while American law requires foreign lobbyists to publicly disclose their affiliations, Brussels has few disclosure requirements. Most such influence peddling occurs under the secretive umbrella of diplomacy.
That is especially true in the European Parliament, the least powerful but only directly elected institution in the European Union power structure. Its 705 lawmakers approve legislation and participate in the legislative process, but its debates, events and resolutions have mostly reputational impact for those involved.
“The Parliament is easily accessible and it has become an attractive ground for all kinds of lobbyists,” said Michiel van Hulten, the head of Transparency International E.U. and a former European lawmaker himself. “Because of this, it is relatively easy to operate under the radar and not get caught,” he added.
A Perfect Match
Eva Kaili, 44, and Francesco Giorgi, 35, started their relationship in Parliament’s labyrinthine halls in 2017, according to people who know them. She was in her first term in office. He was an aide to a senior member of Parliament, Pier Antonio Panzeri. Both were members of the center-left Socialists and Democrats group.
This account is based on interviews with two dozen lawmakers, E.U. and Belgian government officials, and aides directly familiar with the case and the people involved, as well as an examination of private correspondence, years of social media posts, policy drafts and voting records.
Most of those interviewed for this article requested anonymity because they did not want to get dragged into a high-profile criminal investigation.
Ms. Kaili and Mr. Giorgi documented their lives in social media posts that exuded success and confidence: sailing in the Aegean Sea, skiing Mont Blanc, visiting mosques in Oman and drinking cocktails in Minorca.
The couple spent the coronavirus lockdowns together mostly in Athens, Ms. Kaili told Greek tabloids that have long covered her private life, and last February, welcomed a baby girl into the world.
Mr. Giorgi is linked to the corruption investigation not just through his partner, but also his former boss. Mr. Panzeri, 67, was arrested last week at his home in Brussels, where the Belgian police found €600,000 euros ($632,000) in cash. His wife and daughter were also arrested in their hometown near Milan.
Mr. Panzeri’s lawyer did not respond to requests for comment.
The authorities say Mr. Panzeri played a central role in cultivating relations with Qatari and Moroccan officials and facilitating the flow of cash to Brussels, including through a non-governmental organization he leads.
Before Kickoff
As the World Cup neared, Ms. Kaili’s and Mr. Giorgi’s advocacy of Qatar intensified. She argued against any attempt to condemn the human-rights abuses in Qatar, an absolute monarchy that criminalizes homosexuality and requires a woman under the age of 25 to obtain permission from a male guardian to travel abroad.
She pushed for visa-free travel for Qataris visiting the European Union.
Colleagues said she also undermined Parliament’s scrutiny of Qatar’s handling of the World Cup.
Hannah Neumann, a European lawmaker from Germany who chairs the committee on relations with the Arabian Peninsula, had planned a committee trip to Doha for over a year. Committee members were supposed to critically assess Qatar’s progress before the World Cup kickoff.
Then in late September, the Qatari government abruptly told her the trip had to be canceled because the building where they were to meet was under construction.
So Ms. Neumann said she was stunned and angry a month later, when Ms. Kaili showed up in Doha in her stead. In a whirlwind two-day trip, Ms. Kaili even held a meeting with the head of state, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, which she had seemingly organized herself, people familiar with her visit said.
“She was giving statements that were much more pro-Qatar than the Parliament’s position, pretending to speak on behalf of Parliament,” Ms. Neumann said in an interview with The Times.
Ms. Kaili’s lawyer and a spokesman for the Parliament’s president said that her trip was an official mission.
Two weeks later, in mid-November, a seemingly uncontroversial resolution criticizing Qatar’s human-rights record ran into unexpected resistance. “It was difficult to even put it on the agenda,” said the liberal lawmaker Katalin Cseh. “I was shocked.”
Even Ms. Kaili’s political allies were frustrated. “As social democrats, we should take the lead in putting the spotlight on the human-rights violations,” the Danish lawmaker Niels Fuglsang said in an interview. He said a resolution he drafted criticizing Qatar was opposed by at least one of the people now being investigated — he would not say who — and was ultimately rejected.
It was replaced by one that praised Qatar for reforms that are “an example for the Gulf region.” The new text said that Qatar had “already improved the working and living conditions for hundreds of thousands of workers.” Qatari officials have indeed implemented changes to their labor-sponsorship system, though activists say they are insufficient.
Set on softening the final resolution, Mr. Giorgi, working for a new member of Parliament, sent out an email to all socialist lawmakers to vote down an amendment that said that Qatar had bribed to win the hosting of the World Cup.
“The European Parliament should not accuse a country without evidences coming out from the competent judicial authorities,” said the email, sent in the name of the lawmaker Andrea Cozzolino. When the vote was held Nov. 24, he succeeded in getting the bribery language removed.
Since her arrest, Ms. Kaili has been stripped of her vice-presidential title and expelled from both her Greek party, Pasok, and her European Parliament political group, the Socialists and Democrats. The Greek authorities are also investigating her finances.
The European Parliament was set to vote this week on the Qatar visa-free travel proposal. That vote, and all other work relating to Qatar, has been suspended.
The Gray Zone
Ms. Kaili’s energetic lobbying for the tiny Gulf state was not entirely unusual for the European Parliament.
In the days since the arrests, lawmakers and operatives privately pointed fingers, accusing their rivals of similar clandestine efforts. But the ability to take undisclosed meetings with foreign agents is built into the rules of Parliament.
“It is not an accident that a gray zone exists in Brussels,” said Mr. van Hulten of Transparency International E.U. “This is how the institutions wanted it.”
Ms. Kaili’s statements may not have delivered policy changes, which are mostly crafted by the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch. But the Parliament is perfectly suited to produce something Qatar needed: positive publicity.
The scandal could be particularly damaging to Qatar’s reputation abroad at a time when officials would rather focus on their hosting of the World Cup, which they’ve been building toward for more than a decade.
The tournament, which ends Sunday, has been the basis of a grand $220-billion nation-building project for a state the size of Connecticut, and is part of a broader push by Qatar’s rulers to garner influence around the world. Those efforts go beyond sports; they’ve established an international airline and a global media empire, Al Jazeera. And like its Gulf neighbors, Qatar has spent extensively on lobbying in Washington.
Scholars say that those efforts are at least partly motivated by the state’s political insecurity. Qatar is often overshadowed by larger, more powerful neighbors including Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The bribery charges have also highlighted a recent change in European Union policy toward Qatar. Amid an energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission has increasingly embraced Qatar as a source of natural gas. Ms. Metsola, the Parliament president, suggested reconsidering that pivot.
“We would rather be cold than bought,” she said this week.
The scandal seems set to ensnare more lawmakers, as the Belgian authorities have raided several aides’ residences. It has also caused deep mistrust.
“I thought the political fights we had were based on honest political assessments leading to different conclusions,” Ms. Neumann said. “But now I know that I was most likely fighting against a corruption network.”
Reporting was contributed by Vivian Nereim in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Koba Ryckewaert in Brussels; Elisabetta Povoledo in Milan; and Gaia Pianigiani in Siena, Italy.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Brussels bureau chief for The New York Times, covering the European Union. She joined The Times after covering East Africa and previously Europe for The Wall Street Journal. @MatinaStevis
Monika Pronczuk is a reporter based in Brussels. She joined The Times in 2020. @MonikaPronczuk
Tariq Panja covers some of the darker corners of the global sports industry. He is also a co-author of “Football’s Secret Trade,” an exposé on soccer’s multibillion-dollar player trading industry. @tariqpanja
Sarah Hurtes is a journalist based in Brussels. She joined The Times’s international investigations desk in 2022. @HurtesSarah
The Death of a Forced FriendshipRussian Invasion of Ukraine Ends an Era in Finland
Russia and Finland once maintained close relations that were partly imposed by Moscow. Since Putin's invasion of Ukraine, though, the Finns are strengthening their defenses and striving to join NATO. For many, it marks the end of an era.
By Nadia Pantel
15.12.2022
All that remains of Lenin is a bit of red glue on a marble pedestal. For 43 years, it stood in a small park in the southern Finnish coastal town of Kotka. At times, people smeared it with paint, and the local council regularly argued over whether its presence trivialized Stalinism. But Lenin remained. In 1995, a Polish artist gave him a left arm, which the statue had been lacking. And from then on, Lenin held a bronze cigarette in his hand.
DER SPIEGEL 50/2022
The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 50/2022 (December 10th, 2022) of DER SPIEGEL.
Recent months, though, have seen movement on the issue. First, the city of Turku took down a Lenin statue, followed by a Soviet monument in Helsinki. In October, the Kotka City Council finally sent a demolition squad to Finland's last remaining Lenin.
Two-thirds of respondents had told the local newspaper that they could no longer stand the statue: Russia invades Ukraine, yet a Lenin statue installed by Moscow is still standing exactly where the Soviet army first attacked Kotka in 1939? It was too much.
Lenin had actually arrived as a friend. In 1979, Moscow commissioned an Estonian sculptor to create it as a symbol of Soviet-Finnish solidarity. But in 2022, the people of Kotka and Finland finally lost patience. Enough Lenin. Stay away Moscow.
The Baltic Sea Goes NATO
Even the Baltic Sea, which lies under the gray sky just a few paces behind Lenin's pedestal, will soon no longer be the same. Finland expects to be admitted to NATO next year, together with Sweden. Northern Europe is saying goodbye to the idea of neutrality. And the inland sea will soon become almost completely under NATO control, with a bit of Russia at its easternmost tip. Over the summer, U.S. President Joe Biden said: "Putin was looking for the Finlandization of Europe. He's going to get the 'NATOization' of Europe."
"Finlandization" was the term used in West Germany in the days of the Iron Curtain to describe the enforced closeness with which Moscow made Helsinki an acquiescent neighbor. Given that most Finns are polite people, they refrained from coining the term "Berlinization" to describe the period after the fall of the Wall - the phase during which Germany behaved as if defense and security issues were concerns of the past. It's an attitude that Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, could never afford.
Driving along that border, you learn that every city has a well-maintained system of air-raid shelters, which are currently being used as swimming pools, gymnasiums and storage rooms. After all, they want the present to be as normal as possible, but completely ruling out a Russian attack seemed cavalier. It is also a country that nonetheless maintained serene and pragmatic contact with its large neighbor. Russian tourists, businessmen and friends are quietly yet painfully missed in Finland.
When Lenin was brought to Kotka in 1979, Esa Lassi, the local representative of the Communist Party of Finland, picked up the Lenin sculptor from the ferry arriving from Tallinn. Lassi still has metal pins with a miniature version of the statue in his kitchen today. Like the original, without the left arm. When Lenin was dismantled this fall, Lassi wrapped a red flag around his walker and protested. Lassi isn't just Kotka's best-known communist. He is also a relic of "Finlandization."
"I would have loved to put the red flag around Lenin's shoulders as a farewell, but there were construction workers and they were stronger than me," Lassi says, sitting in his living room. His respirator is set on the bookshelf behind him on a tome about Scandinavian social democracy. There are pictures on the walls of Lenin and trips Lassi made with the Communist Party during his youth. During the 1970s, Lassi studied briefly in Moscow. For him, Russia represented the "promise of brotherhood and freedom." Although he wanted a communist Finland, he never wanted a Russian Finland.
Lassi considers Finland to be "an independent country that can defend itself." He finds his country's planned NATO membership to be just as sad as the demise of the Lenin statue. Yet not even Lassi would advise Ukraine to "Finlandize," to subordinate itself to Russia. "Putin is a traitor," Lassi says. A traitor to communism, a traitor to the former Soviet peoples. Of course Ukraine should be defending itself against his attack, he says. The way Lassi sees the world, Putin will fall out of power because of his war and Lenin will still be lying in his mausoleum in Red Square, and people will realize "that it is Lenin's thoughts that can save us."
There's one photo hanging on the wall with a laughing man with blond curls. "That's me," says Lassi. "I was 18, all the girls were after me." Communism was part of Lassi's youth, too. Lassi, though, is now an elderly man. And for Finland, which belonged to the Russian Empire until 1917, the forced closeness with Moscow is now a thing of what feels like the distant past.
Shopping Right at the Border
Just under 50 kilometers east of Kotka is the Vaalimaa border crossing. Marks in the road left behind by cars and trucks serve as a reminder that, until the summer, thousands of tourists and commuters from Russia drove into Finland every day or headed from Finland to Russia. Since September 30, though, the border has only been open in exceptional cases, for people who want to visit relatives or who have long-term visas.
Four years ago, a shopping center was built right next to the border crossing. It's called the Zsar Outlet Village, and there is a throne in the center where visitors can have their photo taken wearing a crown. Capitalism is tolerant – if Russians associate positive emotions with the czar, you give them a czar shopping experience. But just like the check-in counters at the border, the shopping center too has become a defunct backdrop to a bygone era. Most of the stores have closed, and the Outlet Village has filed for bankruptcy.
Pekka Aho, with his gray hair and a thick jacket, is one of the last customers. He just bought sports shoes for his sons. Aho lives nearby and works as a border guard. There aren't many other jobs around, he says, adding that it has grown extremely quiet. Until the end of the Soviet Union, the Iron Curtain divided the world here in Vaalimaa, with rapprochement only beginning slowly in the 1980s. Vaalimaa went from being a dead end to a transit town – and it became the busiest border crossing on the way from Russia to Helsinki.
Russia's war has now made Vaalimaa the end of the road once again. "The last 20 years were good," says Aho. The Russian middle class grew, and so did the number of Russian tourists. Restaurants and stores opened in Vaalimaa, and Russia, at least that's how it seemed to Aho, gained more freedom and democracy. This year put a damper on the "actually strong optimism" that Aho says he has. "I now have to explain to my children why Russia won't attack us." He tells them about the strong Finnish army, and, more recently, also about NATO.
Because Aho doesn't want to be afraid, he has decided that Finland is actually worthless to Russia, anyway. "If they conquer us, they will just get more forests and more pristine nature. They have enough of that already."
And the path along the border actually does lead through endless forests. Sixty-five kilometers north of Vaalimaa, the trees are joined by water. It's the beginning of Saimaa, Finland's largest lake, which is even home to the Saimaa ringed seal. Lappeenranta is located on the shore, a city that under Swedish rule used to be called "Villmanstrand," the beach of the wild man. Today, you encounter the wild man as part of the town coat-of-arms, a hairy brute with a bare torso wielding a wooden club. "I really do thing that he'll now protect us," says Tuomo Sallinen, the town's deputy mayor.
Finland Doesn't Need to Catch Up Militarily
Just a year ago, Sallinen didn't think he needed any kind of special protection. Lappeenranta, with its 70,000 residents, has benefited from exchange and trade with Russia like hardly any other city in Finland. Relations were so close that Lappeenranta maintained its own representation in Saint Petersburg. "I thought, in economic terms alone, that we were so intertwined that it would make war impossible. I was wrong," says Sallinen. He has Russian friends and wanted to treat Russia like a normal neighbor. "That trust is now destroyed."
In conversations in Finland about Russia's attack on Ukraine, the same shock is evident that one encounters in Germany. And yet there is a crucial difference: Unlike Germany, the invasion isn't really requiring Finland to radically change its approach, to declare a "watershed," as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did immediately after the Russian attack, "Zeitenwende." Finland has never abolished compulsory military service, and defense spending is already 2 percent of gross domestic product, the target figure demanded by NATO that many countries, including Germany, have not yet reached. Finland saw itself as a neutral country, but not as one that didn't have to defend itself.
And the country's defenses also include more than just the army. Every two years, Sallinen and his staff have to undergo disaster training. For two days, they rehearse how to keep the city running if there is no electricity, if people are killed, if homes are burning. "Being prepared," Sallinen says, "is part of who we are as a nation."
It becomes more difficult for Sallinen when he is asked to talk about the city's future. We'll just have to adapt, he says. But at City Hall, they have calculated that every day the border to Russia remains closed, it costs the city 1 million euros. They had grown used to being the gateway to the east.
A few minutes' drive from City Hall, in the basement of an apartment building, 10 men are meeting on this Wednesday afternoon in Lappeenranta to mix 200 liters of salad dressing. They are members of the local Lions Club and are preparing for their charity booth at the local Christmas market. The bottling of the salad dressing is going smoothly, and the first beers have been popped open, but they don't expect it to be a very good holiday season. Almost everyone here is affected by the border closure.
There is Esa, who exported electrical technology to Russia. Joel, who sold expensive cheese to the Russians. Juho, who built luxury homes on the banks of the Saimaa for Russian millionaires. "I'd be happy if the Russians came back, but I wouldn't show it," Joel says. He's talking about tourists. Then he adds: "If the Russians, come, I know what I have to do. I'm a reservist." This time, he's talking about the soldiers.
Everyone here in the basement shares the feeling that they have been deceived. They didn't consider Russia to be dangerous, despite the annexation of Crimea in 2014, despite the Caucasus War in 2008. And they thought Finland could do well without NATO. "We're not afraid," says home-builder Juho. Then why does the country want to join NATO now? "Because we're realists. And as a realist, you adapt to external conditions."
For Katri Anttila, the new ice age between Finland and Russia is particularly painful. Anttila is the director of three Finnish-Russian schools in Lappeenranta and the surrounding area. Here in southeastern Finland, in Karelia, more than 5 percent of the population belongs to the Russian-speaking minority. In 2010, there were television reports about the Russian schools of Lappeenranta because there were so many applications. The Russian language was booming. "We were approached by parents who had no particular connection to Russia. They just wanted their children to learn a useful language," Anttila recalls. "Now, our Russian teachers are getting weird looks at the supermarket," Anttila says.
Lappeenranta's Russian school is housed in a brightly lit building. From the street, you can see the drawing of a matryoshka nesting doll. There's no Russian flag to be seen anywhere. "We don't talk about politics in school," Anttila says. But she can't deny that politics is pushing its way into her school. Since the beginning of the war, a growing number of students are arriving fresh from Russia. "These are families who had been thinking about emigrating for a long time and could no longer stand the situation," Anttila says.
Preparing for the Possibility of Attack
At the same time, the first Ukrainian refugees are now arriving at the school. It's easier for the children to arrive in a Russian-speaking environment, Anttila says. But she is also realizing what can happen when speaking about politics becomes taboo. It ends in great silence. Anttila long commuted between Finland and Russia. But since Russia attacked Ukraine, she hasn't visited her friends on the other side of the border. She says she is afraid they might say things she wouldn't be able to accept.
On the way out of the school, Anttila points to two heavy iron doors. Behind them is what looks like a storeroom for sports equipment, with cross-country skis leaning against shelves. But it's an air raid shelter. Large red cranks protrude from the wall. If the Russians use poison gas, they can manually set the air filters in motion inside. Both are possible at the Russian school in Lappeenranta: learning the language and the culture of their neighbor. And being prepared for a possible attack from that self-same neighbor.
A little further to the northeast, seven kilometers from Svetogorsk in Russia, lies the small town of Imatra. It is famous for its wild river and for the huge dam that was built to generate electricity. The Imatra rapids became a tourist attraction after Russian Czarina Catherine the Great visited them in 1772.
The Hole of a Shell Impact
Some of today's tourists find their way to a white house next to Imatra's main street. It's the place where Jarmo Ikävalko keeps his childhood toys and photos of his parents' youth, as well as military uniforms from World War II. He calls his collection the "Veteran's Museum." An idyllic mural with farmers and animals has been painted above the sofa in the living room. In front of the left hoof of a horse, there's a hole. In 1944, a Soviet army shell struck it. Ikävalko has left the shrapnel in the wall.
A visit to Ikävalko is not only about the past, but also about one of the most important strands of the Finnish national narrative: the battles of the Winter War. In 1939, the Red Army attacked Finland, with Stalin expecting to quickly overrun the country quickly, but the Finns resisted for much longer than expected. Finnish soldiers, Ikävalko's father among them, managed to stand up to the Soviet army for the entire winter. Until Moscow won. But without having conquered Finland.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine nine months ago, there was once again talk of the Winter War. Even outside of Finland. A small country attacked by its Russian neighbor and proves to be a determined adversary that wins international sympathy. That's how it was in 1939 and 1940 during the Winter War, and that is how it began in 2022 in Ukraine. Other parallels are difficult to draw. But for Finland, the Winter War is a memory that the country continues to draw on. When the men were preparing the salad dressing in the basement in Lappeenranta, one of them even mentioned it: "We have known since 1939 that one Finnish soldier is as strong as 10 Russians."
Ikävalko of the Veterans Museum doesn't want to give the impression that he is longing for the old days. He liked living on the border, he says. "We always have fireworks twice on New Year's Eve, first on the Russian side and an hour later on ours." For Ikävalko, Russia had always been "a friend." The idea that this can no longer be the case scares him. He says he considers Finland's NATO accession to be "reasonable," but quite unpleasant. Soon, his small museum will recall an era when Finland hoped to navigate independently through peacetime.
Earlier this month, Finnish Prime Minster Sanna Marin again stated that those days are over. "I'll be brutally honest with you, Europe isn't strong enough," she said in a speech given in Sydney, Australia, on December 2. She said the war has shown that Europe needs the United States and that the European defense industry needs to be strengthened. The Finnish population seems to agree with Marin: In a poll taken in November, 78 percent said they were in favor of joining NATO. Back in 2017, only 21 percent were.
An art nouveau villa stands 10 steps away from Ikävalko's museum. It's an aging luxury hotel with taxidermy adorning the room with the fireplace. It's here that the mayor of Imatra, Matias Hilden, has agreed to meet for an interview. Under Hilden's predecessor, Imatra still had close ties with the nearby Russian city of Svetogorsk. There were joint sports tournaments, business contacts and the municipal administrations occasionally worked together. Hilden, 35, has only been in office for seven months and is no longer familiar with that time. Svetogorsk is only 20 minutes away by car, but today it is the beginning of a completely different world.
"We wanted the Russians to know that the Ukrainians have our full support."
Up until July and August, Russian tourists were still coming to Imatra, as has always been normal for the city. "But this time it bothered people here," Hilden says. So, they thought about how to show the Russian guests what they think.
During the vacation season, they open the floodgates of their dam at 6 p.m. each evening. The riverbed becomes a waterfall for 16 minutes. To ensure the spectacle really touches everyone, the city plays a piece by the Finnish composer Jean Sibelius over the loudspeakers. The rushing water meets swelling violins. This summer in Imatra, they played the Ukrainian national anthem instead of Sibelius. "We wanted the Russians to know that the Ukrainians have our full support," says Mayor Hilden. He says he couldn't tell whether the Russians had listened or turned a deaf ear.
No one is coming to visit right now, anyway. The loudspeakers take a winter break. Here, where up to 14 trains a day arrived with guests from St. Petersburg in the 19th century, Finland will erect its first border fence. It will be three meters high and will be topped by barbed wire and night vision cameras.
Finland intends to secure a total of 200 kilometers of the 1,430-kilometer border in this way, at an estimated cost of 380 million euros. With the Iron Curtain, Imatra's mayor says, there were only wooden markings in the forest. The era of fences is only just now beginning.
EU adopts 15% tax on multinational businesses (Le Monde)
Most read…
"Today the European Union has taken a crucial step towards tax fairness and social justice," EU economy commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said. "Minimum taxation is key to addressing the challenges a globalised economy creates."
Le Monde with AFP
Image: Germán & Co
““Today the European Union has taken a crucial step towards tax fairness and social justice,” EU economy commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said. “Minimum taxation is key to addressing the challenges a globalised economy creates.””
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On Thursday, the EU passed the landmark agreement intended to stop governments racing to cut taxes to lure the world's richest firms to their territory.
Le Monde with AFP
Published on December 16, 2022
The European Union on Thursday, December 15, adopted a plan for a global minimum 15% tax on multinational businesses, after leaders gave final approval following months of wrangling. The landmark agreement between nearly 140 countries is intended to stop governments racing to cut taxes to lure the world's richest firms to their territory.
"Today the European Union has taken a crucial step towards tax fairness and social justice," EU economy commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said. "Minimum taxation is key to addressing the challenges a globalised economy creates."
The plan was drawn up under the guidance of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and already had the backing of Washington and several major EU economies. But the implementation of the minimum tax in the 27-nation European Union has already been delayed as member states raised objections or adopted blocking tactics.
Most recently, this week Poland blocked formal adoption of the measure while arguing about unrelated measures, such as sanctions on Russia. But at Thursday's summit such reticences were negotiated away, and the tax will now come into effect across the block at the end of next year.
Leaders hailed the decision. Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz said it was a "project close to my heart" and France's President Emmanuel Macron said France had been pushing the idea for more than four years.
The global minimum tax is only one part, known as Pillar Two, of the OECD agreement. The first pillar, which provides for the taxation of companies where they make their profits to limit tax evasion, primarily targets digital giants. It requires an international agreement which is not yet finalised.
Le Monde with AFP
News round-up, Thursday, December 15, 2022.
Most read…
The Federal Reserve signals more to come even as it slows rate increases.
Central bankers made a smaller rate move, but predicted that they will weigh the economy down more aggressively than previously expected
NYT
Macron urges Europe to act more quickly to counter US subsidies
EU leaders are meeting in Brussels on Thursday to find a way to counter Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.
Le Monde
'China must radically transition away from the development path it took in the past'
China is facing major structural challenges that require a significant shift in its economic policy. However, the party is struggling to convince people of their ability to bring about real change.
Le Monde
Musk Destroys Tesla Image in Germany
Germans have a disastrous view of Tesla, with company founder Elon Musk's behavior hardly helping. Whether from a likeability or quality perspective, the Tesla brand is far behind its German competitors.
Image: FED by NYT
“Germans have a disastrous view of Tesla, with company founder Elon Musk’s behavior hardly helping. Whether from a likeability or quality perspective, the Tesla brand is far behind its German competitors. ”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
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The Federal Reserve signals more to come even as it slows rate increases.
Central bankers made a smaller rate move, but predicted that they will weigh the economy down more aggressively than previously expected
NYT
By Jeanna Smialek and Joe Rennison
Published Dec. 14, 2022Updated Dec. 15, 2022, 2:22 a.m. ET
Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday slowed their campaign to cool the economy but indicated that interest rates would rise higher in 2023 than previously expected as inflation proves more stubborn than policymakers had hoped.
Fed officials voted unanimously at the conclusion of their two-day meeting to raise borrowing costs by half a percentage point, a pullback after four consecutive three-quarter point increases. Their policy rate is now set to a range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent, the highest it has been since 2007.
After months of moving rapidly to make money more expensive in an attempt to rein in an overheating economy, central bankers are entering a phase in which they expect to adjust policy more cautiously. That will give them time to see how the labor market and inflation are reacting to the policy changes they have already put in place.
Yet the Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday for the first time since September, sent a clear signal that slowing the pace of rate increases does not mean that officials are letting up in their battle against rapid inflation. Borrowing costs are expected to rise more drastically and inflict more economic pain than central bankers previously anticipated as policymakers attempt to wrangle stubborn price increases.
“We’ve continually expected to make faster progress on inflation than we have,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during his news conference after the release. He described the Fed’s new expectations as: “slower progress on inflation, tighter policy, probably higher rates, probably held for longer, just to get you to the kind of restriction that you need to get inflation down to 2 percent.”
Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates at Slower Pace
Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said officials would raise borrowing costs by half a percentage point, a pullback from previous increases, as signs show that inflation is beginning to cool.CreditCredit...Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Officials are now expecting to raise their policy interest rate to 5.1 percent by the end of 2023, which would mean another three-quarter-point worth of adjustments and would push it half a percentage point higher next year than officials previously anticipated. Policymakers also expect to keep borrowing costs higher for longer.
“We have more work to do,” Mr. Powell said.
The Fed’s higher rates are expected to cool the economy notably next year. Central bankers predict that unemployment will jump to 4.6 percent from 3.7 percent now, and then remain elevated for years. Growth is expected to be much weaker in 2023 than previously anticipated, pushing the economy to the brink of a recession.
“I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not, and if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not,” Mr. Powell said. “It’s not knowable.”
The central bank’s aggressive stance comes as central bankers worry that inflation will remain high for years to come. Though price increases are already beginning to moderate from the four-decade highs they reached this summer, the Fed’s economic projections make clear that policymakers think it is going to take years to return inflation fully to their 2 percent goal.
Despite the tough talk from the Fed, investors on Wednesday seemed unconvinced. Stock prices in the S&P 500 fluctuated higher and lower as Mr. Powell spoke at a news conference before ending the day down 0.6 percent.
And though the Fed expects to keep rates above 5 percent through the end of 2023, investors are still betting that the central bank will stop raising rates sooner and begin cutting them earlier.
“Financial markets want black and white, and you’re working in shades of gray,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, explaining that investors are not internalizing the Fed’s nuanced message.
That divergence could be a problem for central bankers. Higher stock prices and lower market-based interest rates make money cheaper and easier to borrow, helping to stimulate the economy — the opposite of the Fed’s goal as it tries to lower inflation.
“You hear the mantra, ‘Don’t fight the Fed,’ but at the moment the market is willing to fight the Fed,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “It’s an interesting dissonance that creates a risk for the market.”
Mr. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that his central bank is determined to keep fighting inflation until it is thoroughly vanquished, and on Wednesday he underlined that wrestling price pressures back under control is likely to take some time.
Macron urges Europe to act more quickly to counter US subsidies
EU leaders are meeting in Brussels on Thursday to find a way to counter Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.
Le Monde with AFP
Published on December 15, 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday, December 15, that the European Union would have to move more quickly to head off the threat to its industry from planned US subsidies.
Arriving at the EU summit in Brussels, Mr. Macron said the leaders would discuss their response to US President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.
"To maintain fair competition," Mr. Macron said, Europe must simplify its own subsidy rules faster "to respond, to be the equivalent of what the Americans have done."
EU leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday will focus on a trade dispute with the United States, a key ally, that threatens to trigger a subsidy race between the economic superpowers.
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen sent a letter ahead of the summit urging leaders to back a plan to compete with billions of dollars in new US subsidies and tax cuts for car makers.
Brussels views the "Buy American" condition for purchasers of electric vehicles mainly made in the United States as discriminatory against European car manufacturers.
It is also concerned Washington's plan will drain investment from the EU to the United States and that they violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
But, with US President Joe Biden refusing to change course beyond some promised "tweaks," the commission is now looking to match the US move by loosening its own state aid rules and boosting public investment in cleaner energy.
Ms. Von der Leyen said the e-vehicle subsidies contained in a broader US Inflation Reduction Act "risk un-leveling the playing field and discriminating against European companies".
The EU emphasizes its close cooperation with the United States – especially in supporting Ukraine and fighting climate change. But it is worried Washington is working up a trade advantage over it while it was going through an energy crunch, economic headwinds and was still recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.
'China must radically transition away from the development path it took in the past'
China is facing major structural challenges that require a significant shift in its economic policy. However, the party is struggling to convince people of their ability to bring about real change.
By Camille Macaire
Published on December 15, 2022
The rise of social tensions in China has highlighted the population's frustration with the harsh and inconsistent zero-Covid-19 policy. But in the background, there's also growing anxiety among the youth, faced with record unemployment (20% according to official figures, probably much more in reality) and uncertainties about long-term prospects.
Beyond the strong impact of the Covid-19 crisis, China is facing major structural challenges, in particular demographic aging, which require a radical change in the economic model. However, the authorities are struggling to convince people of their ability to bring about real change. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party, held from October 16 to 22, has illustrated the choice of subordinating the economy to politics by placing national security and strategic autonomy at the heart of its priorities.
These objectives underlie the emphasis on technological self-sufficiency. China has proven its ability to move upmarket in digital technology, and the automotive sector, but it's still far from being able to do without external innovations. For the future, in addition to an emphasis on education, one of the tools mentioned is a strategy to attract foreign talent. But Xi Jinping's ideological withdrawal, which advocates independence from the outside world and strengthens state control over the manufacturing sector, seems to contradict this strategy. At the same time, US sanctions against Chinese semiconductor producers will slow down China's capacity for innovation.
Poor outlook
The commitment to the social component, based on a better sharing of wealth according to the principle of "common prosperity," seems to be losing steam. The reinforcement of safety nets, a long-standing objective but never followed by significant action, is only now appearing in the discourse.
In the short term, the outlook for China's economy is cloudy. New cases of Covid-19 are now occurring on a daily basis at more than double the average level observed during the outbreak that paralyzed the country between mid-March and the end of April, and are widely scattered across the country. The announcement on Wednesday, December 7 that the zero-Covid-19 policy, which had become unbearable, would be eased could lead to a rebound in activity, but will also cause major disruptions in the face of a lack of hospital capacity. The ongoing speeding up of vaccination among the elderly could lead to a gradual exit from the crisis, but it will take time: Only about 40% of people over the age of 80 are fully vaccinated in the country. However, household trust will remain permanently impacted, which will continue to weigh on domestic consumption.
Moreover, massive government support through debt or monetary easing isn't on the agenda. Since 2017, Beijing has made fiscal clean-up, primarily by reducing debts, an official goal to strengthen the resilience of the economic model. Despite the Covid-19-related crisis, the authorities have proven their strong will to stay the course: The BPC hasn't conducted asset buyback programs, unlike its foreign counterparts, and has maintained strong pressure on property developers to deflate their debt levels.
More meaningful energy commitments are urgently needed to give credibility to the promise of zero net CO2 emissions by 2060. China must radically transition away from the development path it took in the past. The target for reducing the carbon intensity of growth presented in the 2021-2025 five-year plan (-18% emissions per unit of GDP created) has only slowed the acceleration of emissions, in fact creating an increase of nearly 40% over the period.
Major reforms
One of the levers of action is to increase more rapidly the share of low energy-intensive sectors, such as services, in growth. But this requires far-reaching structural reforms (strengthening safety nets, making the labor market more flexible, or restructuring state-owned enterprises), which are lagging behind.
In addition to reducing emissions at home, China has positioned itself as a supplier of eco-friendly equipment to the rest of the world. For example, it enjoys a dominant position in the manufacturing of batteries and solar panels. The country could turn the global climate challenge into an opportunity, as a springboard for its long-term growth.
China is also deploying a strategy of strengthening economic and financial ties with developing countries, particularly in Asia, which represent a large pool of demographic and economic growth. It's now the largest trading partner of most emerging countries and the largest international donor, with outstanding bilateral loans estimated at nearly twice those of the Paris Club (which includes 22 lending countries).
It has established a network of agreements with some 40 countries, the vast majority of them emerging countries, to provide liquidity in the event of a crisis (swap lines). These links, which are based on the "New Silk Roads" project, could serve as a growth springboard for the Chinese economy by reorganizing production chains, guaranteeing access to raw materials and creating new outlets. But to preserve and strengthen those links in the long term, China must prove to its partners that they all have a shared interest. And it remains to be seen whether the country's ideological hardening won't undermine the foundations of this project.
Camille Macaire is the Banque de France's representative for the Asia-Pacific region and an associate researcher at the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII). This article reflects the personal views of the author and does not reflect the stance of the Banque de France on the subject.
Source Spiegel
Musk Destroys Tesla Image in Germany
Germans have a disastrous view of Tesla, with company founder Elon Musk's behavior hardly helping. Whether from a likeability or quality perspective, the Tesla brand is far behind its German competitors.
14.12.2022
Elon Musk, it would seem, is eager to drag his followers into the abyss of conspiracy theory credulity – but is anyone taking the bait? The top dog of Tesla and Twitter has never been shy when it comes to polarizing statements, of course, but even by his standards, the last several days have been disturbing for his willingness to make right-wing positions his own. He went after the U.S. virologist Anthony Fauci, he has made light of people who want to determine their own sexual identity and he has generally declared war on "woke." During an appearance in San Francisco, Musk was booed for several minutes, and actor Billy Baldwin launched a trend with the hashtag #BoycottTesla.
In Germany, the calls for boycott were hardly necessary. That is the clear message of a survey conducted on behalf of DER SPIEGEL by the public opinion research institute Civey. Some 47 percent of the auto enthusiasts surveyed responded that Musk’s current behavior has had a "clearly negative" influence on their opinion of Tesla. An additional 16 percent said their reaction has been "rather negative." Only 3 percent said they have a "rather positive" impression of Musk’s recent behavior, and an additional 6 percent rated their impression as "clearly positive." The survey was carried out between Dec. 1 to 9, prior to Musk’s most recent outbursts.
In late October, after Musk took over control of Twitter, a number of public reactions already began indicating that the image of Tesla, the world’s leading electric car brand, was taking a beating. Alena Buyx, chair of the German Ethics Council, said at the time that she was no longer interested in buying a Tesla. "It’s something you can’t do anymore,” she said.
In the U.S., the public opinion research company Morning Consult reported that Tesla’s popularity has suffered a nosedive primarily among supporters of the Democratic Party, which have traditionally dominated the e-car market. Since the beginning of the year, trust in the Tesla brand had been trending downward only slightly, says Morning Consult, but that Musk’s acquisition of Twitter "acted as a break in the dam." Elon Musk’s polarizing personality, the consulting company found, is negatively impacting Tesla.
The new survey commissioned by DER SPIEGEL has now revealed the same impact on the company’s image in Germany as that seen in the U.S. – just nine months after the carmaker opened up a new gigafactory outside of Berlin. And in contrast to the U.S., where Tesla seems poised to replace at least some of its disaffected supporters with new fans among pro-Trump Republicans, the same dynamic is nowhere to be seen in Germany. The broad rejection of Musk’s persona is apparent across all age, professional and educational groups in the country and it is independent of gender, region, family status, degree, religion and political affiliation.
The only exception is among those who proclaim to be supporters of the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), with only 35 percent of such respondents saying they had a negative reaction to Musk’s behavior. But even within this group, the negative reactions outweighed the positive (23 percent).
Even without explicit mention of Musk, only 9 percent of Germans said they find Tesla to be "very" or "rather likeable." Fully 69 percent, by contrast, said they found the manufacturer to be "less" or "not at all likeable." That makes Tesla by far the least popular company among large carmakers with production sites in Germany, a finding once again independent of political party preference.
The survey revealed more polarization when it comes to Germany’s tradition-rich luxury brands like Mercedes, Porsche, BMW and Audi, which are generally viewed negatively on the left side of the political spectrum, but more positively on the right, with center-left Social Democrats also showing a weakness for Audi. Mass producers like Volkswagen, Opel and Ford, by contrast, tend to be more balanced, or they trigger very little reaction at all. Only Tesla is viewed negatively across all political parties. Musk’s company generates the highest likeability ratings among university students (27 percent), those under the age of 30 (22 percent), voters for the far-left Left Party (21 percent) and civil servants (17 percent). In all cases, though, Tesla supporters make up a clear minority.
Tesla also isn’t able to rely on its aura of being a technological leader. In response to the Civey question as to whether respondents view the vehicles produced by the different brands as high-quality products, only 21 percent answered positively when it came to Tesla.
That value puts Tesla at the very back of the pack, behind even Ford and Opel, both of which are also produced in Germany but which belong to foreign companies. Traditional German producers received top marks on the quality question. But Tesla has also been the focus of numerous negative reports in the U.S. when it comes to quality and safety, in part because of the disastrous press its driver assistance system has received.
The survey does not allow for conclusions to be drawn on general attitudes in favor of or against electric vehicles. Tesla is the only manufacturer on the list to specialize entirely in e-autos and leads the segment both in Germany and elsewhere in the world when it comes to the number of vehicles registered. But other brands are offering more and more battery-powered vehicles. From January to November, 52,000 new Teslas were registered in Germany, according to the KBA, the German agency responsible for motorized vehicle registration. That represents around one-seventh of all fully electric vehicles in the country, with VW hot on its heels.
News round-up, Wednesday, December 14, 2022.
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War in Ukraine: In Romania, France deploys 'high-intensity' Leclerc tanks
France and its allies are mobilizing forces to avoid any expansion of the conflict into NATO countries.
By Cédric Pietralunga — LE MONDE
U.S. Is Said to Near Sending Most Advanced Missile System to Ukraine NYT
EU must seize the geopolitical moment in the Balkans
Credible accession prospect is vital to keep Putin, China at bay in Southeastern Europe.
POLITICO EU / BY PAUL TAYLOR
Generators ‘as important as armour’ to Ukraine surviving winter, says Zelenskiy
Ukraine president calls for more infrastructure aid to counter Putin’s ‘blackout and energy terror’
The Guardian / Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor
The war according to Sartre
by Roger Kimball
A review of The War Diaries of Jean-Paul Sartre, November 1939-March 1940 by Jean-Paul Sartre.
newcriterion.com
Image: design by Germán & Co
“What exploded all that was the fact that one fine day in September 1939 I received a call-up paper and was obliged to go off to the barracks at Nancy to meet fellows I didn’t know who’d been called up like me. That’s what introduced the social into my life . . .. Up till then I believed myself sovereign; I had to encounter the negation of my own freedom— through being mobilized—in order to become aware of the weight of the world . . .. ”
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War in Ukraine: In Romania, France deploys 'high-intensity' Leclerc tanks
France and its allies are mobilizing forces to avoid any expansion of the conflict into NATO countries.
By Cédric Pietralunga
Published on December 14, 2022 at 05h04, updated at 07h29 on December 14, 2022
Le Monde
A French Leclerc tank of the 1st Regiment of Chasseurs from Thierville-sur-Meuse (Meuse) on the Cincu military training area, during an exercise in the framework of the NATO "Eagle" mission, in Romania, December 8, 2022. THOMAS SAMSON / AFP
On the plain, the fog was struggling to dissipate when, suddenly, a loud cannonade resounded on the heights. Four French Leclerc tanks, arranged in an arc on the side of a muddy hill, alongside a herd of roaming sheep, had just fired on an enemy position 1,800 meters below. The objective of the day for these 54-ton steel monsters: To slow down the advance of the enemy forces with 120 mm shells and to protect a counter-offensive led by a handful of French, Dutch and Romanian infantrymen and armored vehicles, under the eye of an American Reaper drone.
Welcome to Cincu, the largest military training center in Romania, situated at the foot of the Carpathian Mountains at an altitude of 700 meters. It is here that France, along with its allies, is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia. Contrived after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, in order to reinforce NATO's eastern flank, the "Aigle" mission is already mobilizing nearly 1,000 French soldiers and is expected to increase by a few hundred more in the coming months. "This is our largest foreign operation since the withdrawal from Mali," said Colonel Alexandre de Féligonde, commanding officer of the 1st Chasseur Regiment (1st RCh) from Verdun, who oversees the NATO battalion in Romania.
After the first few months which were devoted to logistics and the construction of a camp in Cincu, capable of accommodating some 1,200 soldiers for a planned period of four to five years, the French troops are now getting down to the hard work of training, with almost daily maneuvers in the clay and the cold. On November 16, they were reinforced by a squadron of 13 Leclerc tanks and the armored vehicles that accompanied them, for a total of 140 combat vehicles. Not since the Kosovo war, when France intervened under a UN mandate in the late 1990s to separate Serbs and Kosovars, has the French army deployed so many tanks outside its borders.
'Power message'
According to the military, this exceptional shipment is a "message of power" addressed to Russia, while Moscow regularly threatens NATO countries with reprisals for their support to Ukraine. "Without being directly involved in this war, our country is mobilizing its forces to avoid any expansion of the conflict into the borders of NATO countries," explained the Ministry of Defense. In total, nearly 1,500 French soldiers are currently deployed in Romania, with others deployed in Estonia and Lithuania, as part of NATO's so-called assurance measures. The cost of these missions for France is estimated to be €450 million for 2022.
In any case, the deployment of Leclerc tanks to Romania seems like a redemption for their crews. For two decades, the armored regiments, nicknamed "the big guys", had become accustomed to being left out of operations abroad. Too heavy, too powerful, too expensive, the Leclercs had no place in the Sahel or the Levant, where agility and reactivity were preferred in the fight against terrorist groups, and where the desert environment was more favorable to wheeled vehicles.
With the invasion of Ukraine, the "big guys" and their caterpillar tracks are back to what they were designed for: confronting armies from the former Warsaw Pact. "The battle tank is an essential asset on the terrain we encounter in central Europe," said Lieutenant Colonel Vincent, head of operations at Cincu and a member of the 1st RCh. "We're having a blast!" agreed a young tank commander, his face streaked with mud as he returned from an exercise in "the green," the military jargon for the terrain. In Cincu, the French have 50 square kilometers in which to maneuver and carry out live fire.
Tanks are one of the key elements of the war in Ukraine, where they are paying a heavy price in the fighting. Almost every day, videos posted on social media show tanks being targeted by artillery fire or portable anti-tank missiles. There are countless images of turrets on Russian T-72 or T-80 tanks being propelled into the air by the explosion of their shells, located under the feet of their crews. According to the Oryx website, which compiles the losses of each side based on visual evidence, the Russians have lost more than 1,550 tanks since February 24, or half their active fleet, compared to just under 450 for Ukraine.
'A consumable'
These seemingly spectacular figures do not impress specialists. "Losing half of one's tanks in a war is nothing exceptional. These are normal proportions, characteristic of high intensity," said Marc Chassillan, a former weapons engineer, now a military consultant. During the Yom Kippur War, in October 1973, Israel lost 2,500 tanks in three weeks. And some 5,000 tanks were destroyed during the conflict between Iran and Iraq from 1980 to 1988. "In a war, tanks are consumable, like any other material. We have just forgotten that," said Mr. Chassillan.
The French army has understood this and does not intend to deprive itself of such tools. "Current events confirm that 'battle tank' capability remains indispensable for the toughest engagements, as it determines the ability to fight in encounters and to regain the initiative," said General Pierre Schill, chief of staff of the French army, during a hearing at the Assemblée Nationale on October 12. "The battle tank is the most powerful machine we have. It can destroy an armored vehicle at 4 kilometers, drive up to 80 kilometers per hour, shoot while moving..." "There is nothing better in terms of speed, protection and power," said Lieutenant Colonel Vincent, of the 1st RCh.
There's just one problem: The French army has only 222 of them left, compared with 354 in 2008, at their peak. Of these, less than 200 are operational. Designed in the 1980s, the Leclercs were to be replaced by 2035 by the MGCS (Main Ground Combat System). But this Franco-German project keeps experiencing delays. To avoid being left without armor, the French general staff has decided to renovate its venerable Leclercs. Two hundred modernized units are expected by 2030, with a first delivery of 18 units in 2023. As for the end-of-life date of the Leclerc, the French government is now considering extending it to 2050.
Cédric Pietralunga
U.S. Is Said to Near Sending Most Advanced Missile System to Ukraine
U.S. is poised to send a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine, officials say.
NYT
WASHINGTON — The United States is poised to approve sending its most advanced ground-based air defense system to Ukraine, responding to the country’s urgent request to help defend against an onslaught of Russian missile and drone attacks, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday.
Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III could approve a directive as early as this week to transfer one Patriot battery already overseas to Ukraine, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Final approval would then rest with President Biden.
White House, Pentagon and State Department officials declined to comment on details of the transfer of a Patriot battery, which, if approved, would amount to one of the most sophisticated weapons the U.S. has provided Ukraine.
Ned Price, a State Department spokesman, told reporters on Tuesday that the United States would continue to prioritize sending air defense systems to help “our Ukrainian partners defend themselves from the brutal Russian aggression that we’ve seen for the better part of a year now.”
Many questions remain about the potential transfer, which was reported earlier by CNN, including how long it would take to train Ukrainian soldiers on the system, presumably in Germany, and where the Patriots would be deployed inside Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials have intensified their pleas for air defenses from the United States and other Western allies as Russia has conducted relentless attacks on power plants, heating systems and other energy infrastructure. The attacks, using missiles and Iranian-made drones, have left Ukrainians vulnerable and in the dark just as the coldest time of the year is beginning.
Over the weekend, Russian drone strikes on the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa plunged more than 1.5 million people in the region into darkness. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said the strikes by Russia, part of a nationwide assault on Ukraine’s energy grid, had left the region in a “very difficult” situation, warning that it would take days, not hours, to restore power to civilians.
In a speech to the Group of 7 nations on Monday, Mr. Zelensky thanked the countries for their continued support but listed financing for weapons first among his requests.
“Unfortunately, Russia still has the advantage in artillery and missiles,” he said. He requested additional artillery, as well as modern tanks — equipment that Ukraine has repeatedly asked for, along with fighter jets and longer range missiles.
The decision to send the Patriot system would be a powerful sign of the United States’ deepening military commitment to Ukraine.
The Pentagon’s active-duty Patriot units frequently deploy for missions around the world, and experts say there are not deep stockpiles of Patriot missiles available for transfer to Ukraine in the same way that the U.S. provided a large quantity of artillery shells and rockets to Kyiv for use in combat.
— Eric Schmitt and John Ismay
Kyiv is rocked by predawn explosions.
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, was rocked by a series of loud explosions early Wednesday.
The blasts occurred after air raid sirens had been blaring for about 30 minutes starting about 6 a.m. Two government buildings in Kyiv and a home in the region surrounding the capital had been damaged in a drone attack, Anton Gerashchenko, a deputy interior minister, said in a statement.
Oleksiy Kuleba, the head of the Kyiv region, said the air defense system had hit several targets in the region and urged residents to remain in shelters.
Vitali Klitschko, Kyiv’s mayor, said 10 Iranian-made Shahed drones had been shot down in the capital and surrounding areas. He said the explosions were in the Shevchenkivskyi district.
Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine have been subject to Russian missile attacks in recent weeks that have taken out power and other infrastructure as the country heads into the coldest winter months.
As the sun rose on Wednesday, residents were covering blown-out windows with sheets and blankets to protect against the bitter cold.
Yaroslav Vinokurov, 24, was inspecting his car, which he said was destroyed by Wednesday’s blasts. The roof was shorn off a building near his home, and windows throughout his neighborhood had shattered.
The Ukrainian Air Force has warned in recent days that the Russian military was launching more drone attacks under cover of night to deplete Ukraine’s limited stock of radar-based air defense missiles. In daylight, Ukrainian soldiers are able to use large-caliber machine guns or other small arms to target drones.
Maria Varenikova and Andrew E. Kramer contributed reporting.
— Marc Santora and Victoria Kim
EU must seize the geopolitical moment in the Balkans
Credible accession prospect is vital to keep Putin, China at bay in Southeastern Europe.
POLITICO EU
BY PAUL TAYLOR
DECEMBER 14, 2022 4:00 AM CET
Paul Taylor is a contributing editor at POLITICO
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has finally awakened the European Union to the strategic importance of the Western Balkans and the potential for Moscow to exploit unresolved disputes in the region to undermine the West.
EU leaders must now seize the geopolitical moment to revamp the integration of the six small, economically fragile countries with a total population of fewer than 18 million into the Union, or risk seeing them used by Russia and China in their power games.
Despite deep disillusionment at the snail’s pace of progress since the EU officially gave them membership prospect back in 2003, EU accession remains the best imaginable outcome for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, and for the rest of Europe.
Commission’s Borrell on European Parliament corruption probe: ‘Very, very worrisome’
By Wilhelmine Preussen
If the EU continues to keep them at arm’s length, the alternatives could be closer alignment with Russia, the emergence of an illiberal, non-aligned zone that could stretch from Hungary to Turkey, or — worse still — a downward spiral into fresh armed conflict, involving a toxic mixture of organized crime and weaponized migration.
There is a complacent assumption in some western European capitals, notably Paris and The Hague, where EU enlargement fatigue is the most intense, that the status quo is manageable and poses no serious risk to European security. To be sure, people in the Western Balkans are war-weary after the horrors of the 1990s.
The situation may seem under control, but it is not sustainable indefinitely. There is no guarantee that unresolved conflicts within Bosnia or between Serbia and Kosovo will stay frozen with minor flare-ups, or that localized political violence will not escalate, drawing in outside players and fueling new flows of refugees, arms and drugs into the EU. Recent clashes over car license plates for Kosovo Serbs show how a tiny spark can ignite dry tinder.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s assault on Ukraine has put many people on edge in the region, fueling ultra-nationalism among hardline pro-Russian Serbs, and bringing back searing memories of death and destruction among those who lived through the 1990s Yugoslav Wars.
Moscow is trying to fan pan-Slavic Orthodox nationalism and exploit divisions wherever it can. It has lent support to Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik in his threats to secede from Bosnia and has spread disinformation to amplify Kosovo Serbs’ hostility to the Pristina government.
China, for its part, has mostly pursued economic investments, using the 14+1 framework under its Belt and Road Initiative to engage with local leaders looking for ambitious infrastructure and defense projects. It follows Russia’s lead on the Western Balkans in the UN Security Council and uses its financial muscle to dissuade Balkan states from backing critical resolutions on human rights violations in Xinjiang or Hong Kong.
Serbian pro-government media relay the Russian narrative about the war in Ukraine, and Russian-owned media contribute to anti-Kosovo war hysteria. Russia and China have both contributed to Serbia’s rearmament. Moscow also has a powerful energy lever since Serbia gets 80 percent of its gas from Russia while Bosnia is 100 percent dependent. Partly as a result, Serbia has refused to align with EU sanctions against Russia, causing irritation in Brussels.
The EU has the more powerful long-term levers, if it is willing to use them, given the widespread public aspiration to join the bloc across the region, except in Serbia. However, France and the Netherlands have led resistance to further enlargement ever since mainly over fears of migration and organized crime.
Moscow lent support to Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik in his threats to secede from Bosnia | Elvis Barukcic/AFP via Getty Images)
Neighboring EU members Greece and Bulgaria long obstructed the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s candidacy for the EU and NATO to demand that it change its name and accept Sofia’s narrative about its own history and its Bulgarian minority.
Even after it agreed to change its name to North Macedonia in 2018, France vetoed the opening of negotiations with Skopje and Albania to demand a reform of the accession process to include the principle of reversibility where there is backsliding. The talks finally began this July, but North Macedonia is still required to change its constitution next year to incorporate the terms agreed with Bulgaria, a potential political bear trap since the government lacks a super-majority.
When EU leaders rushed to grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate status in June in response to Russia’s aggression, Western Balkan elites understandably feared their countries were being pushed further back in the line for membership. Likewise, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz demanded that the EU reform its decision-making system to scrap national vetoes on sanctions and taxation policy before new members are admitted, that sounded like an even longer wait.
So, what should the EU do now? First, more visible political engagement.
The EU has made a better start this year at paying attention to the long-neglected region. There have been two EU-Western Balkan summits — one in the region for the first time — plus a revival of the Berlin Process to support regional economic integration in preparation for joining the EU’s single market. Western Balkan leaders attended the inaugural summit of a new European Political Community in Prague in October, dreamt up by French President Emmanuel Macron.
This engagement must continue.
Second, bring forward accession benefits and participation.
The EU needs to reshape its cumbersome accession process to distribute more of the financial and market access benefits of membership up-front as candidates progress with reform. At present, they receive only a trickle of pre-accession assistance until they join.
The EU should invite ministers from the region to attend informal council meetings on issues of common concern. It should encourage Western Balkan countries to elect observers to the European Parliament at the same time as the 2024 European elections, so they have a voice, if not a vote, in EU lawmaking.
Of course, the brunt of the hard work needs to be done in the candidate countries, most of which are far from meeting the basic conditions of democracy, the rule of law, freedom of expression, and the fight against corruption to qualify for membership.
As always, it’s a chicken-and-egg problem. Why would Balkan politicians make painful reforms that could loosen their hold on power and money for such a distant and uncertain prospect? The EU will need to work harder from below, supporting civil society, women’s organizations, and small businesses as drivers of change, while offering incentives and applying pressure from above.
At this geopolitical moment, the EU simply can’t afford to leave the region to fester.
Generators ‘as important as armour’ to Ukraine surviving winter, says Zelenskiy
Ukraine president calls for more infrastructure aid to counter Putin’s ‘blackout and energy terror’
The Guardian
Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor
Tue 13 Dec 2022 16.11 GMT
Generators are as important as armour in helping Ukraine survive Vladimir Putin’s energy terror this winter, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has told an emergency conference in Paris convened to coordinate infrastructure and humanitarian aid to the country over the next four months.
A total of €1.05bn (£900m) in financial and in-kind aid was pledged but the Ukrainian president said as well as surviving the winter the country needed an additional €1.5bn to restore the long-term damage to the energy grid.
The aim of the conference is to set up an international coordination mechanism to ensure Ukraine secures the right mix of generators, transformers, equipment for the restoration of high-voltage networks, and gas turbines.
“We will do everything to counter the blackout and the energy terror. Most of our power plants are damaged or destroyed by the bombings,” Zelenskiy said in an address to the conference by video link.
“Every day our engineers have to disconnect millions of Ukrainians for these repairs. Currently there are 12 million. And every day we expect new Russian strikes. That’s why the generators have become as important as armour to protect the population.”
Energy experts say the key task for Ukraine is not to avoid black-outs but to ensure that each day all neighbourhoods are receiving at least three hours of electricity, which requires a complicated distribution of the grid.
The French-inspired conference is designed to coordinate humanitarian aid to Ukraine and is being attended by more than 40 countries and 30 multilateral bodies.
Pledged aid included generators and power transformers plus assistance with food, water, health, transport and rebuilding. The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, announced funding for the purchase of 30m energy-saving lightbulbs that Ukraine had requested to reduce pressure on its power grid.
The meeting will also put in place a system to coordinate international aid for the winter so donors do not double-up. A web-based platform will enable Ukraine to list its civilian aid needs and allow donors to show what they will supply in response.
Russia has repeatedly targeted the Ukrainian power grid and other critical infrastructure in missile and drone attacks since early October as it has faced battlefield setbacks but the bombardment has not so far led to a second mass wave of refugees, according to the latest figures from the EU’s Frontex agency cited by the Warsaw University migration expert Maciej Duszczyk.
He said there had been only a slight net increase of 10,000 Ukrainians crossing the border in the past week, with 65% of them going to Poland.
“The next two months are crucial, but the exodus may be lower than in April because Ukraine’s morale about winning the war is higher,” he said. He added that although the temperature was projected to drop below freezing at night it was due to be about 5C by day, relatively mild for a Ukrainian winter.
Olena Zelenska, the president’s wife, addressed the conference in person and asked Europeans to imagine being under the Russian bombardment.
“How do you feel what this war is doing to our country and our people?” she asked. “How do you feel what more than 4,000 missiles that hit Ukrainian cities mean? What does 50,000 missiles launched in a single day against our country mean? What are 2,719 educational establishments affected or destroyed? How do you feel over 1,100 medical establishments destroyed or affected? Can you imagine half of France without electricity?”
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said in a speech opening the conference that Moscow’s bombardments of civilian targets was a war crime. Often accused of trying to secure a premature peace, he said the 10-point peace plan proposed by Zelenskiy at the G20 in Bali “constitutes an excellent basis on which we will build together”, and “it is up to Ukraine, the victim of this aggression, to decide on the conditions for a just and lasting peace”.
The Kremlin on Tuesday rejected Ukrainian peace proposals that would involve a withdrawal of Russian troops, saying Kyiv needed to accept new territorial realities.
“The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed during this time,” said the spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. “And these realities indicate that new subjects have appeared in the Russian Federation. They appeared as a result of referendums that took place in these territories. Without taking these new realities into account, no kind of progress is possible.”
Ukraine and its western allies have dismissed as sham referendums the votes used by Russia as a pretext to illegally annex four Ukrainian regions, none of which it fully controls. Moscow has rejected charges that its talk of diplomacy is an attempt to buy time to allow its depleted forces to regroup after nearly 10 months of war and a series of defeats and retreats.
The UK Foreign Office, meanwhile, announced it was sanctioning 12 Russian commanders for their role in attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Maj Gen Robert Baranov, identified by the investigative website Bellingcat as the commander of programming and targeting Russian cruise missiles.
The Foreign Office views the dozen as the most senior officers involved directly in the assault on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and the sanctioning makes them prime targets for possible future war crimes tribunals.
The UK said it was also sanctioning four Iranians, including the co-owner and managing director of Mado, an Iranian drone engine manufacturer.
The Foreign Office, citing UK defence intelligence reports, claimed “Russian armed forces are struggling to replenish their missile reserves, while they are increasingly forced to rely on second rate drones supplied by Iran to keep up their inhumane bombardments of the Ukrainian people”.
James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, said: “The Iranian regime is increasingly isolated in the face of deafening calls for change from its own people and is striking sordid deals with Putin in a desperate attempt to survive.”
The war according to Sartre
A review of The War Diaries of Jean-Paul Sartre, November 1939-March 1940 by Jean-Paul Sartre.
Jean-Paul Sartre was thirty-four years old when Germany attacked Poland on September 1, 1939. By that time, he had already published important philosophical works, including The Transcendence of the Ego, and was beginning to develop a reputation for his fiction: La Nausée, which many consider his finest novel, had been published by the previous year, followed by Le Mur and a collection of critical essays. Having done his military service a decade before in the meteorological corps, Sartre suddenly found himself torn away from his self-possessed life as a teacher and writer and was engaged once again as an army weatherman. “I was quite comfortably ensconced in my situation as an individualist, anti-bourgeois writer,” he recalled later in “Self-Portrait at Seventy.”
What exploded all that was the fact that one fine day in September 1939 I received a call-up paper and was obliged to go off to the barracks at Nancy to meet fellows I didn’t know who’d been called up like me. That’s what introduced the social into my life . . .. Up till then I believed myself sovereign; I had to encounter the negation of my own freedom— through being mobilized—in order to become aware of the weight of the world . . ..
But as his first response to life was always to write about it, Sartre did not abandon literary activities in his new situation; the world had not become that weighty. Immediately after he was called up, he conceived the idea of keeping a journal. “Reflecting upon the world of war and its nature,” he wrote to Simone de Beauvoir, “I hatched the project of writing a journal. Please include in your parcel a stout black notebook —thick but not too tall or wide, cross-ruled of course.”
In fact, Sartre discovered that his new routine afforded him even more time to write than he had had in civilian life. The change of scene and the portentous atmosphere of the times seemed to act as a tonic to his imagination. Stationed just behind the front in a succession of small towns near Strasbourg, Sartre had the sense of being close to great happenings but endured very few actual distractions. His duties, which consisted mostly of taking weather readings, were neither taxing nor time-consuming, and he was usually left to his own devices.
In fact, Sartre discovered that his new routine afforded him even more time to write than he had had in civilian life.
Still, however propitious the situation, Sartre’s productivity in the five months that he was writing these notebooks was staggering. To begin with, he managed to fill fourteen notebooks and begin a fifteenth. Of these, it appears that only the five that are translated here—numbers iii, v, xi, xii, and xiv—have survived. Arlette Elkaim-Sartre, the philosopher’s mistress in the late Fifties and later his adopted daughter and heir, hints in her foreword that other volumes may exist but have yet to resurface. In any case, in addition to the fourteen notebooks —the equivalent of over a thousand printed pages—he wrote hundreds of letters, most of his novel, The Age of Reason, and tinkered with several other literary projects. In his translator’s introduction to The War Diaries, Quentin Hoare estimates that Sartre wrote a total of some one million words during this period.
Simply to have written a million words in five months is a remarkable feat; and it is all the more so in light of the generally high quality of Sartre’s writing here and the complexity of the ideas with which he was dealing. The whole episode reminds us that sheer abundant energy is one of the marks of genius. Admonished by a colleague that he was working too hard, spending sixteen hours a day reading and writing, Sartre confesses to his notebook that he is flattered by the thought but scrupulously calculates that his true average was considerably less—a mere ten or eleven hours a day. And unlike his infamous spasm of productivity in 1958, when he almost killed himself writing Critique of Dialectical Reason, Sartre’s accomplishments in 1939-40 would seem to have been unaided by ever-increasing doses of amphetamines.
As the original title of this book indicates (Les Carnets de la drôle de guerre: Novembre 1939-Mars 1940), what we have here are not really “war diaries” but notebooks of the “phoney war,” that strange interregnum after France declared war on Germany in which French and German troops sat ensconced in their respective positions along the Alsatian border, eyeing each other with hostility but not fighting. Sartre never saw combat, and while his notebooks occasionally discuss the phenomenon of war, his reflections on the subject tend to be saturated with the kind of abstract, Hegelian logic that dissolves the exigencies of lived experience into a battle of purely conceptual antagonists. “War, when all’s said and done,” Sartre mused in one typical passage, “is a concrete idea that contains within itself its own destruction and that accomplishes this by an equally concrete dialectic . . . . The essence of war will be realized concretely the day war becomes impossible.” How consoling would be the thought that war becomes what it really is only when it becomes impossible—if only the unfolding of its “concrete dialectic” weren’t such a messy affair.
One instance of such messiness occurred in May, 1940, when the Germans abruptly put an end to the phoney war; they outflanked the “impregnable” Maginot Line and, in a matter of weeks, had occupied France. Sartre, incidentally, was taken prisoner in June as his company retreated before the German onslaught. He used his time in captivity to study Heidegger and to compose a good portion of what would become his major philosophical work, Being and Nothingness (1943). He was released the following year and returned to Paris, where he continued writing and was involved— tangentially, it seems—in the Resistance.
Mr. Hoare enthusiastically introduces these notebooks as a “masterpiece”—“without question . . . a marvellously successful work.” But despite their great historical interest and the many memorable passages they contain, I’m afraid that a reading of the notebooks forces us to conclude that there is indeed some question about their success as a “work.” For the whole is simply too desultory, sketchy, and uneven to merit Mr. Hoare’s praise. Yet they surely are an extraordinary set of documents. And it is worth noting, too, that Sartre always assumed that they would be published one day. “I am giving myself short shrift in my little black notebook,” he wrote to Simone de Beauvoir. “Whoever reads it after my death—for you will publish it only posthumously—will think I was a dreadful character, unless you accompany it with explanatory annotations of a kindly sort.” De Beauvoir did not, alas, provide the requisite annotations—fascinating though they would have been—but a glance through the present volume enables one to appreciate the point of Sartre’s veiled request.
Ostensibly the testimony of an “average” soldier caught up in the moment, these notebooks are in fact no more average than was Jean-Paul Sartre himself. Though they include something of an abridged chronicle of Sartre’s life at this time—his observations on daily events, relations with his new-found army colleagues, his sundry amours—their chief interest is as a diary of his prodigious intellectual obsessions and the motivating sensibility that occasioned them.
In this respect, they offer us a glimpse into the mental workshop of one of the most fertile and influential philosophical minds of the century as it labored at the threshold of intellectual maturity. We see Sartre discovering, elaborating, reformulating themes that we have come to identify as distinctively Sartrean. Anyone familiar with the basic tenets of his particularly austere brand of existentialism will at once recognize that these notebooks exhibit the entire range of its defining preoccupations: the agonized struggle for authenticity, the insistence on absolute freedom and responsibility, rejection of any transcendent measure for values or morals, minute analyses of one’s relations with other people, an ill-defined but powerful anti-conventional, anti-bourgeois stance (“You’re all bourgeois,” Sartre snaps at his colleagues near the beginning of the volume, “I wouldn’t put myself out for bourgeois people”)—in short, as Mr. Hoare rightly observes, they “both prefigure and map out the virtual entirety of the author’s subsequent oeuvre.”
Especially noteworthy from a philosophical point of view are the many passages that rehearse material that would come to occupy a central place in the argument of Being and Nothingness. For example, the notebooks contain lengthy and often quite technical discussions of the concept of Nothingness, the nature of the will, the problem of authenticity, the structure of consciousness, and other equally specialized matters. Some of these discussions recur almost verbatim in Being and Nothingness; often, though, we follow as Sartre gropes his way to a preliminary understanding and expression of his ideas. Given the level of abstraction at which Being and Nothingness proceeds, such drafts are welcome interpretive aids: their very hesitations and digressions often help to elucidate Sartre’s more finished—and more intricate—argument in Being and Nothingness.1
Also of philosophical interest is Sartre’s account of his debt to Husserl and Heidegger. Sartre had studied Husserl when he was in Berlin in 1931-33, and philosophically he is in many ways closer to Husserl’s phenomenology, with its obvious roots in the Cartesian tradition, than he is to Heidegger. But temperamentally, as it were, Sartre has much more in common with Heidegger, who can probably be regarded as his major philosophical inspiration. He did not read Heidegger’s major work, Being and Time, until a German soldier provided him with a copy when he was a prisoner of war. But by September, 1939, he was acquainted with What is Metaphysics? and other of Heidegger’s works, and the existential twist that characterizes Heidegger’s philosophy had already begun to exert a deep influence on his thinking.
In addition to indulging in such philosophical reflections, Sartre uses his notebooks to keep a running dialogue with his reading, quoting from and reflecting copiously on whatever he happens to be engaged with at the moment. Gide, Saint-Exupéry, Kierkegaard, Stendhal, Flaubert, Koestler, and Emil Ludwig’s biography of Kaiser Wilhelm II figure prominently in these pages, as do a host of lesser characters. Gide and Stendhal already emerge as among Sartre’s heroes, but Flaubert is severely criticized for inexact writing and stylistic poverty. “How clumsy and disagreeable it is,” Sartre writes of L’Education sentimentale. “How silly that constant hesitation between stylization and realism in the dialogues and portrayals.” He then devotes several pages to a detailed criticism of what he considers Flaubert’s ineffective and cliché-ridden use of verbs.
Sartre regarded this period of his life as a time of transition—at one point he compares himself to a snake that has sloughed off its old skin—and his notebooks abound in the kind of autobiographical recollections and self-analyses that such moments are wont to elicit. (Autobiography, of course, became a speciality of Sartre’s: The Words, his much admired exercise in the genre, won him the Nobel Prize in 1964—which, characteristically, he refused.) We learn, for example, that from an early age Sartre was convinced he would become a great writer, dowered with a “great writer’s life, as it appears from books.” And “as for the content of that life,” he writes,
it can be easily imagined: there were solitude and despair, passions, great undertakings, a long period of painful obscurity (though I slyly shortened it in my dreams, in order not to be too old when it ended), and then glory, with its retinue of admiration and love . . . . In a word, I’d have liked to be sure of becoming a great man later on, so as to be able to live my youth as a great man’s youth . . . . [T]hough I couldn’t be sure, I behaved as if I must become one—and was extremely conscious of being the young Sartre, in the same way that people speak of the young Berlioz or the young Goethe.
Various memoirs, especially those written by his friends, are at pains to declare Sartre’s modesty and unpretentiousness; no doubt he was possessed of these virtues, though it clearly cannot be said that he lacked self-confidence.
Sartre’s political enthusiasms, which later bulked so large in his work and personality, show themselves in these notebooks only obliquely. He cites a contemporary critic, one Emile Bouvier, who was dubious about the likelihood of Sartre’s becoming “a great novelist.” “It is to be feared,” Bouvier wrote, “lest . . . he may leave literature for philosophy, mysticism or social preaching.” Sartre responded that he was “flabbergasted” by Bouvier’s remark: “I’d never have believed that anyone would consign me to mysticism like that. And as for social preaching, M. Bouvier can set his mind at ease.”
Sartre was of course correct about mysticism; but as for philosophy and social preaching—well, here Bouvier would seem to have been closer to the mark. Concerning the latter, for example, one thinks of Sartre’s vigorous—indeed, preachy—denunciations of the United States after the war, his support of Soviet Russia during the last years of Stalin’s reign, or the steady stream of political manifestos, pamphlets, and pronouncer ments that he issued in the Sixties and Seventies. Simone de Beauvoir’s memoir of Sartre’s last years is replete with instances of his efforts in this direction. Typical is a quotation she took from a preface Sartre wrote in 1972 for a book about Maoism in France: “With their anti-authoritarian praxis the Maoists show themselves as the only revolutionary force capable of adapting itself to the new forms of class war in the period of organized capitalism.” Such passages are depressing not least because they reveal Sartre descending to the level of a callow street-corner polemicist.
The subject of Sartre’s politics is a complicated one, fraught with heated verbiage and ideological posturing. Any sustained consideration of his views must feature Critique of Dialectical Reason, in which Sartre took issue with the extreme individualism of Being and Nothingness and his other earlier works. But what always seemed to matter above all to Sartre was maintaining his position as spokesman for whatever group was recognized as being to the left of the entrenched, institutionalized power structure, whether it be democratic, socialist, or Communist. This is an aspect of his social thought that did not change with Critique of Dialectical Reason. And in the end, it is difficult to disagree with Leszek Kolakowski’s observation, in Main Currents of Marxism, that Sartre’s “whole political activity was vitiated by a fear of being in the typical situation of an intellectual condemning events that he has no power to influence; in short, his ideology was that of a politician manqué, cherishing unfulfilled ambitions to be on the ‘inside.’”
The subject of Sartre’s politics is a complicated one, fraught with heated verbiage and ideological posturing.
Perhaps the most telling contribution to our understanding of Sartre that these notebooks make is in the spectacle they provide of him transforming the fabric of his everyday life into material for philosophical reflection. For Sartre, life was essentially an agenda for reflection. No feeling, no sensitivity, no impression is left unencumbered by interpretation; no interpretation is left undisciplined by further scrutiny. Not even the humble struggle against corpulence is exempt from elaborate speculative embroidery. “Every four or five months,” Sartre writes, “I look at my stomach and get unhappy.” Yet having then resolved to abstain from bread and wine, he finds himself tempted by a carafe of wine one day at lunch:
But, precisely, if Nothingness is introduced into the world through man, anguish at Nothingness is simply anguish at freedom, or if you prefer, freedom’s anguish at itself. If, for example, I experienced a slight anguish yesterday before the wine which I could but should not drink, it’s because the “I shouldn’t” was already in the past . . . and nothing could prevent me from drinking. It was before that particular nothing I was so anguished; that nothingness of my past’s means of acting on my present. . . . [N]oohing allows me to foresee what I shall do and, even if I were able to foresee it, nothing could prevent me from doing it. So anguish is indeed the experience of Nothingness, hence it isn’t a psychological phenomenon. It’s an existential structure of human reality, it’s simply freedom becoming conscious of itself as being its own nothingness.
Sartre’s notebooks are full of such meditations. Taken together, they reveal a mind that does not so much practice philosophy as exude it; anything and everything, the whole range of his experience, is immediately taken up and digested by reflection. The smallest detail of his or his colleagues’ behavior, the most trivial news report: for Sartre they are “understood” only when translated out of their native element and subjected to systematic philosophical probing. In one revealing passage, Sartre wrote that “The truth is, I treat my feelings as ideas: with an idea, one pushes it till it cracks—or finally becomes ‘what it really was.’”
Sartre’s tremendous appetite for abstraction and his suspicion of the life of feeling is particularly evident in his uncompromising, absolutist approach to the cardinal existentialist virtues of authenticity and freedom. In Being and Nothingness, for example, Sartre defines freedom as a spontaneous “upsurge” that is “beyond causes, motives, ends.” Sartre’s discussion of freedom, both in the notebooks and in Being and Nothingness, is elusive to say the least; but it is worth noting that without “causes, motives, or ends” the idea of freedom must remain empty. For if it is to be more than mere accident or spontaneity, if it is not to be arbitrary, then freedom must be limited by particular choices that are based on intelligible criteria—criteria that are in some sense given, not (as Sartre would have it) “freely produced.” In default of such criteria, freedom can be little more than an invigorating slogan. Nevertheless, while he values it above all else, freedom for Sartre is more man’s fate and burden than choice; ineradicable, it is yet too absolute to be fully grasped or realized; hence one is not so much privileged as “condemned to be free.”
And while anything like a definition of authenticity is hard to come by in Sartre’s work, it is clear that (at least through Being and Nothingness) he understood it to be characterized chiefly by the individual’s defiant assertion of unqualified freedom in the face of an essentially absurd reality. And since unqualified freedom entails unqualified responsibility, authenticity, as Sartre insisted in the notebooks, meant being “totally responsible for one’s life.” “In short,” he wrote, “I was seeking the absolute, I wanted to be an absolute, and that’s what I called morality.”
Of course the problem is that the absolute, by nature completely abstract, is too empty to serve as a criterion for morals or a cue for authenticity. But as a rhetorical trope, allegiance to the absolute can exert a powerful appeal. And Sartre’s understanding of authenticity, tinged as it is with such Romantic longing, exploits that appeal to the hilt: “In relation to Gauguin, Van Gogh and Rimbaud,” he noted in an early notebook entry, “I have a distinct inferiority complex because they managed to destroy themselves . . . . I am more and more convinced that, in order to achieve authenticity, something has to snap.”
It follows that, in Sartre’s view, authenticity flourishes best in extreme situations. After a brief leave in Paris, for example, he remarked that “it’s much easier to live decently and authentically in wartime than in peacetime.” But like so much in Sartre’s notebooks—indeed, like so much in his work generally—this statement is at once arresting yet open to serious question. What gives it an air of plausibility is the truth that exceptional situations can call forth exceptional virtues. Plunged into crisis, men and women often experience moments of moral clarity that are rare in everyday life. And they sometimes respond to such situations with uncommon selflessness and valor.
But does this mean that it is easier to live “decently and authentically” during war than in peace? On the contrary, hasn’t war time and again been the occasion of profound moral degradation and anarchy? The notion that it is somehow easier to live “authentically” in war than in the “bourgeois” stability of peace will suggest itself seriously only to someone who discounts the importance of ordinary social life in forming our ideas of authenticity, someone for whom “the authentic” is paradigmatically a lonely battle of an aloof and isolated self. “I rather think I was authentic before my leave,” Sartre wrote. “Probably,” he explained, “because I was alone.”
Just how aloof and isolated Sartre conceives the self to be is exemplified in his contention that “the first value and first object of will is: to be its own foundation.” Or, as he put it—somewhat more bluntly—in Being and Nothingness, “the best way to conceive the fundamental project of human reality is to say that man is the being whose project is to be God.” This is not of course to suggest that Sartre believes that God exists. On the contrary, he tells us in the notebooks that he has been an atheist since the age of twelve. And he proceeds, in a later passage, to describe God as an “impossible synthesis of in-itself and for-itself, of total opacity and total freedom, the causa sui . . .” (my emphasis). Yet according to Sartre, the idea of God, though self-contradictory, functions as the ineluctable (if usually unacknowledged) ideal to which we all aspire. Mankind, he writes in Being and Nothingness, is “perpetually haunted by a totality . . . without being able to be it.”
The thought that man’s “fundamental project” is to be his own foundation—that is, to be God—stands at the center of Sartre’s philosophy. And this is also to say that Sartre’s philosophy is saturated with what the tradition called pride. “For what is pride,” asked Augustine, “except a perverse kind of exaltation? For it is a perverse kind of exaltation to abandon the basis on which the mind should be firmly fixed, and to become, as it were, based on itself.” It underlies, for example, the famous—and deeply Schopenhauerean—conclusion to the main text of Being and Nothingness, that “man is a useless passion”—“useless” because his every action is haunted by a desire that for a mortal, finite creature is essentially self-contradictory: the desire to be completely sovereign, autonomous, self-sufficient, the desire to be God. And it provides the philosophical conviction that justifies Sartre’s constitutional uneasiness with anything that threatens to compromise his sense of mastery and control. “I am nothing but pride and lucidity,” he confesses at one point in the notebooks; and whatever impinges on that pride or obscures that lucidity will be a source of anguish.
The situation that Sartre outlines takes on tragic dimensions when one realizes that the catalogue of threats to man’s pride basically includes the whole of existence: anything organic, mutable, uncertain, anything real that exists independently of man’s will and thought is immediately suspect. “The essential thing,” Sartre’s Antoine Roquentin explains in Nausea, “is contingency. I mean that one cannot define existence as necessity.” Hence the “horrible ecstasy” that Roquentin experiences in the face of the roots of a chestnut tree:
The chestnut tree pressed itself against my eyes. Green rust covered it half-way up; the bark, black and swollen, looked like boiled leather . . . . I realized that there was no halfway house between non-existence and this flaunting abundance. If you existed, you had to exist all the way, as far as mouldiness, bloatedness, obscenity were concerned. In another world, circles, bars of music keep their pure and rigid lines. But existence is a yielding . . . .
Like Sartre himself, Roquentin finds the organic world—unwieldy and subject as it is to change and decay—a frightening and vertiginous affront to pride. What Roquentin craves is a pristine, necessary world of pure abstraction, a world where everything is subject to the dictates of thought; his “circles and bars of music,” rather like the stable inherent “beauty of figures” of “something straight or round” that Plato praises in the Philebus, answer to this desire: completely comprehensible, they do not challenge his demand for mastery and control.
Even language is a source of anguish. Roquentin dreams of a language that can “catch the secret smiles of things seen absolutely without men,” that can articulate “a discreet, tenacious meaning—very precise, but escaping from the words for ever.” But this means that he seeks a language without words, a language that would be fully commensurate with what it describes, a language beyond any merely human language, which never captures things just as they are; what he seeks, in short, is the language of God.
Plunged into crisis, men and women often experience moments of moral clarity that are rare in everyday life.
Sartre’s understanding of man’s fundamental project also has profound implications for his view of relations with other people. If one desires to be God, then the very existence of others will be felt as a threatening infringement of one’s sovereignty. Because man’s pride demands complete self-sufficiency, relations with other people are from the beginning cast into the essentially antagonistic mold of power relations, the mold of a Hobbesian “bellum omnium contra omnes.” It follows that, as Sartre wrote in Being and Nothingness, “conflict is the original meaning of being-for-others.” Indeed, from this point of view, as Garcin exclaimed near the end of No Exit, “L’Enfer, c’set les Autres”: (Hell is other people.) Not without reason is this line so widely identified with the Sartrean philosophy. Sartre’s basic view of “Concrete Relations with Others,” as he put it in the title of one of the most influential chapters of Being and Nothingness, is evident in his rhetoric. He speaks throughout his work—even in the more or less private pages of his notebooks—not of “other people” or “human relations” but always of “the Other,” as if this strangely impersonal, dehumanizing locution named our most common experiences of other people.
Not surprisingly, sexuality, which continually reminds man of his lack of self-sufficiency and fundamental neediness, is especially problematic for Sartre. It offers an unparalleled field for the exercise of power but at the same time it constitutes a tremendous threat to autonomy. Hence Sartre’s notorious description of female sexuality in Being and Nothingness:
The obscenity of the feminine sex is that of everything which “gapes open.” It is an appeal to being as all holes are. In herself woman appeals to a strange flesh which is to transform her into a fullness of being by penetration and dissolution . . .. Beyond any doubt her sex is a mouth and a voracious mouth which devours the penis—a fact which can easily lead to the idea of castration.
Similar passages abound in the notebooks: “. . . the hole is often resistance. It must be forced, in order to pass through. Thereby it is already feminine. It is resistance by Nothingness, in other words modesty. This is obviously why it attracts sexuality (will to power, rape, etc.).” “Obviously”? Sartre offers these observations as rigorous descriptions of “one of the most fundamental tendencies of human reality—the tendency to fill.” But are they really anything more than symptoms of Sartre’s own psychopathology, based in the end on his obsession with autonomy and dressed up in the language of philosophy? Whatever insight into sexuality and human relations such meditations may provide, they surely give weight to Iris Murdoch’s description of Sartre as “a connoisseur of the abnormal.”
Sartre’s existentialist rhetoric bristles with condemnations of “reification” and treating people as objects—as “means” rather than “ends.” But as these notebooks abundantly reveal, both his temperament and underlying view of man incline him to do just that. “Nothing is dearer to me than the freedom of those I love,” Sartre writes in a passage in which he discusses seduction, “but the fact is this freedom is dear to me provided I don’t respect it at all. It’s a question not of suppressing it, but of actually violating it . . . . that’s what the desire to be loved means: to hit the Other in the Other’s absolute freedom.” He goes on to note the “impossibility ... of conceiving a happy love after the seduction. Once the woman had been conquered, I no longer had any idea what to do with her.” Sartre admits that this view of love is “utterly inauthentic,” but at the same time he insists that it is “the commonest and strongest form of love” and he fails, either in the notebooks or in Being and Nothingness, to provide a convincing description of what a more “authentic” version of love would look like.
Indeed, without the erotic charge that allows for seduction, Sartre finds that he is basically uninterested in people. Friendship “bores” him, he tells us, and his relations with men tend to be tenuous and superficial. “In short, there’s one half of humanity that hardly exists for me.” The ideal of self-sufficiency renders the pleasures of ordinary friendship superfluous. “I think I have no need of friends,” Sartre writes, “because, basically, I don’t need anybody . . .. I prefer to derive everything from myself.”
It is, I think, fair to describe Sartre’s view of human relations as somber. But interestingly, Sartre himself would have rejected the characterization. “Seriousness,” in fact, was his great enemy. Thus in the concluding pages of Being and Nothingness, in a section entitled “Existentialist Ethics,” Sartre attacks “the spirit of seriousness,” primarily because it compromises freedom by affirming values that are in some sense “transcendent”—that is, given independently of human subjectivity. And near the end of the notebooks Sartre reflects that he has “never wanted to live seriously. I’ve been able to put on a show-to know pathos, and anguish, and joy. But never, never have I known seriousness. My whole life has been just a game: sometimes long and tedious, sometimes in bad taste— but a game. And this war is just a game for me.” Sartre defines “game” as “the happy metamorphosis of the contingent into the gratuitous,” and alludes for support to Schiller’s celebrated contention that “Man plays only when he is in the full sense of the word a man, and he is only wholly Man when he is playing.” But it is important to note that Sartre ignores the caveat with which Schiller immediately precedes this passage: “Man shall only play with Beauty, and he shall play only with Beauty.” Though man is “serious with the agreeable, the good, the perfect,” writes Schiller, “with Beauty he plays.” Schiller’s task here is not to subvert “seriousness” tout court, but to insure that the realm of beauty and aesthetics remains free from the intrusion of moralistic imperatives. Sartre, however, refuses such distinctions. Instead, he embraces a deep, self-centered aestheticism that would regard the whole of existence—even his lovers, even war—as an untoward eruption of contingency that can be disarmed only by being mastered and transformed into a game of his own device.
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In Strasbourg, on Monday, consternation reigned. “European democracy is under attack,” said Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, after evoking “her fury, her anger, her sorrow.” “There will be no impunity (...) nothing will be swept under the carpet (...) There will be no business as usual (...) We are going to shake up this Parliament,” added the Maltese member of the European People’s Party (EPP, conservative), which has made the fight against corruption a central part of its political identity.”
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'Qatargate' sends shockwaves throughout Europe
President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola promised to introduce new ethical rules after a corruption case involving one of her vice presidents was uncovered. New searches took place in Brussels on Monday.
By Virginie Malingre (Brussels, Europe bureau), Jean-Pierre Stroobants (Brussels, Europe bureau) and Philippe Jacqué (Brussels (Belgium) correpondent)
Published on December 13, 2022
President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, during her speech at the opening of the parliamentary session, in Strasbourg, on December 12, 2022. FREDERICK FLORIN / AFP
As the European Parliament's plenary opened in Strasbourg on Monday, December 12, Belgian police continued to search the institution's Brussels offices. They seized data from the computers of a dozen assistants to Italian MEPs from the Social Democratic Group (S&D).
Since December 9, the legislative body has been living with "Qatargate," a scandal that has seen some of its members suspected of defending the interests of Qatar in return for cash. On that day, Belgian police sealed three offices belonging to the vice president Eva Kaili and the MEP's Marc Tarabella and Marie Arena, who claimed these were the offices of their assistants.
In total, the investigating judge Michel Claise conducted some 20 operations during which six people were arrested, four of whom were imprisoned. Eva Kaili and her husband, the parliamentary assistant Francesco Giorgi, former MEP Pier Antonio Panzeri, and Niccolo Figa-Talamanca, the head of the NGO No Peace Without Justice, will appear before a Brussels court on December 14 to decide whether they should remain in detention.
his investigation that began in the summer of 2022. Some €600,000 were found at the Brussels home of Mr. Panzeri, and €150,000 euros at the home of Eva Kaili, where numerous gifts bearing the Qatar logo were also found. The father of the Greek MEP was hiding €600,000 euros in a briefcase when the police apprehended him at his hotel in the European district.
Consternation
In Strasbourg, on Monday, consternation reigned. "European democracy is under attack," said Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, after evoking "her fury, her anger, her sorrow." "There will be no impunity (...) nothing will be swept under the carpet (...) There will be no business as usual (...) We are going to shake up this Parliament," added the Maltese member of the European People's Party (EPP, conservative), which has made the fight against corruption a central part of its political identity.
To deal with the emergency, she proposed to MEPs that Eva Kaili be stripped of her title of vice president and that the vote scheduled for Tuesday on visa exemptions for Qatari nationals be postponed. On Thursday, MEPs are also expected to vote on a resolution on "Qatar's suspected corruption and the wider need for transparency and accountability in European institutions."
In rare unanimity, every one of the European parliament's party presidents deplored the scandal, from Manfred Weber (EPP) to Manon Aubry, his counterpart from The Left, who said that "you don't buy MEPs like you buy football clubs."
The Socialists & Democrats (S&D) group, the first to be affected by the scandal, also made things clear quickly. "S&D MEPs who employ parliamentary assistants who are subject to the judicial investigation, should, awaiting the outcome of the proceedings, step down from any responsibility and refrain from any activity within the European Parliament," it declared.
In the meantime, Belgian Socialist MEP Marc Tarabella stepped back from his role, his colleague Marie Arena has stopped chairing the Human Rights sub-committee, Italian MEP Pietro Bartolo has withdrawn from his position as spokesperson for the resolution on visa liberalization for Qatar in the European Parliament's Civil Liberties Committee, and Italian MEP Andrea Cozzolino, Francesco Giorgi's employer, is no longer the coordinator for his party.
'We will launch a reform process'
"We will launch a reform process to see who has access to our premises, how these organizations, NGOs and people are funded, what links with third countries they have, we will ask for more transparency on meetings with foreign actors and those linked to them," promised Roberta Metsola. It must be said that the institution, which claims to be at the forefront of the fight for the rule of law, does not offer the best standards of ethics and transparency.
Only the chairmen of parliamentary committees and, in some cases, the rapporteurs of legislation must declare their meetings with companies or professional representatives. The others do as they please. On December 5, Transparency International published a study showing that between July 2019 and June 2022, less than half of MEPs had declared at least one meeting with a lobbyist.
There are no rules on contacts with representatives from countries outside of the EU and EFTA states In a March 2021 letter to David Sassoli, then president of the European Parliament, four EPP MEPs, including the chairman of the foreign affairs committee David McAllister and Frenchman Arnaud Danjean, warned: "Hostile foreign actors are making continuous efforts to influence the political agenda of the European Parliament and the EU." The situation is all the more damaging because "MEPs have no obligation to publish their assets," said Green MEP Daniel Freund.
Many elected officials are calling for stricter rules
Many elected representatives have been calling for years for stricter rules, as they repeated on Monday. On September 16, 2021, Renew, the Greens, S&D and The Left massively supported the adoption of a resolution calling for the creation of an independent authority, based on the model of the French High Authority for Transparency in Public Life. Today, they are also hoping for the opening of an inquiry committee into Qatargate. "While we can always look to increase deterrents and transparency, there will always be some for whom a bag of cash is always worth the risk," warned Roberta Metsola.
Qatargate has sent shockwaves beyond the European Parliament. The scandal threatens "the confidence of Europeans in our institutions," declared Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the Commission. Angela Merkel's former minister took up a proposal she has already made several times, but has not yet carried out, to create an independent ethics authority "that would cover all the institutions in a uniform manner."
In addition, the EU Commission said Parliament has initiated a review of meetings of its commissioners and top officials that could be linked to the investigation. "The investigation is currently affecting one political group. But corruption has no party," said Ms. Aubry, for whom, "the repeated praise [of European Commissioner] Margaritis Schinas towards Qatar may raise questions."
The scandal made at least one person happy: Viktor Orban, regularly attacked by the European Parliament for his failures to uphold the rule of law. In a tweet on Monday, the Hungarian prime minister shared a photo ("And then they said, the EP [European Parliament] is seriously concerned about corruption in Hungary") in which men in suits are toasting and laughing. "Good morning to the European Parliament," he added.
November Inflation ReportPrice Gains Slow More Than Expected
Here’s what we know:
Markets shoot higher as a report showed inflation eased last month, the last major economic news ahead of Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday.
Price Increases Cooled Notably in November as Inflation Began to Ease
Stocks soar as investors welcome signs of cooling inflation.
Growth in food prices slowed, but grocery bills remain historically high.
The slowdown in inflation was driven by food, energy and used vehicles.
Price Increases Cooled Notably in November as Inflation Began to Ease
Year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inflation slowed more sharply than expected in November, an encouraging sign for Federal Reserve officials as they gather in Washington this week to discuss the next steps in their policy campaign against rapid price increases.
Fed policymakers are set to release their latest rate decision at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, at the conclusion of their two-day meeting. They are widely expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point, slowing down after months of rapid three-quarter point moves. They will also release fresh economic projections.
Tuesday’s inflation figures are likely to figure into their discussion about the future policy path. The Consumer Price Index measure climbed 7.1 percent in November compared to a year earlier, less than the 7.3 percent that economists had expected and a slowdown from 7.7 percent in the previous reading. Between October and November, prices also picked up more slowly than forecast.
After stripping out food and fuel prices, which move around a lot, the index climbed by 6 percent. That was less than the 6.1 percent Bloomberg projection.
Overall inflation has been decelerating on year-over-year basis since hitting a peak in June, a sign that price increases are turning a corner after months of unexpected strength.
“Today’s report showed a fairly broad-based slowdown,” Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, wrote in a research note following the report.
Many economists had expected inflation to slow toward a more normal 2 percent pace this year. Instead, it has remained stubbornly rapid, fueled by rent increases, disruptions from the war in Ukraine, continued fallout from supply chain issues and climbing costs for services like airfares and car insurance. Analysts and policymakers alike are hoping that price increases will cool more markedly in 2023.
Fed policy should help that to happen. Central bankers have raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades this year, moving them from near-zero earlier this year to an expected range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent as of this week. Higher borrowing costs are trickling through the economy, slowing down the housing market and making it more expensive to expand a business or buy a car on credit. That should eventually lead to less demand, more muted hiring and a general economic slowdown.
Weaker demand could combine with healing supply chains and a cooling rental housing market to take the pressure off prices, many economists predict. Economists in a Bloomberg survey expect C.P.I. inflation to come down to 3.1 percent by the final quarter of 2023, about half its current pace.
The Consumer Price Index figures released on Tuesday are closely watched because they are the first major inflation data to come out each month. But the Fed officially targets a more delayed measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, when it sets its 2 percent inflation target.
That measure has been running below the Consumer Price Index rate but is also very elevated, coming in at 5 percent in the year through October after stripping out volatile food and fuel.
For the Fed, the key question going forward is not just whether inflation will slow, but how quickly and how completely it will come down. Central bankers worry that if price increases remain rapid for a long time, consumers could begin to expect that to continue. They might demand heftier wage increases in response, and if they win those raises, their employers may institute more regular and rapid price increases to cover climbing labor bills.
In short, expectations for fast inflation could help make that a reality.
While most measures of inflation expectations have remained fairly stable so far, policymakers do not want to assume that they will stay that way.
The fresh inflation data likely offered policymakers some signs for encouragement but also some reasons for continued concern. Inflation in food moderated and energy costs fell, which helped to pull inflation lower.
But food and energy costs aren’t the sort of inflation that the Fed watches closely, because they are volatile and typically do not closely reflect underlying strength in the economy.
There were other encouraging signs that some goods categories are beginning to drop in price. Used cars and trucks, for instance, were down 3.3 percent from a year earlier, and televisions are swiftly becoming cheaper. Such changes signal that supply-chain healing is finally benefiting consumers.
Under the surface, though, services inflation remains robust. Part of that comes from a rapid increase in rents that is expected to fade at some point in 2023. But some is from a tick-up in other categories, such as garbage collection, dentist visits and tickets to sports games.
Service price increases tend to be tied to rising wages and can be hard to stamp out. Service costs excluding energy are now contributing about 3.9 percentage points of overall inflation and could keep price increases rapid even as other types of inflation fade.
In the 1970s, officials allowed inflation to remain slightly more rapid than usual for years on end, which created what economists since have called an “inflationary psychology.” When oil prices spiked for geopolitical reasons, an already elevated inflation base and high inflation expectations helped price increases to climb into the stratosphere. Fed policymakers ultimately raised rates to nearly 20 percent and pushed unemployment to double digits to bring prices back under control.
Central bankers today want to avoid a rerun of that painful experience, which is why they are trying to promptly bring price increases to heel. For now, they have signaled that they expect to raise interest rates slightly in early 2023, then leave them at high levels to constrain the economy and attempt to squeeze out inflation.
“It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during a speech late last month. “We will stay the course until the job is done.”
Stocks soar as investors welcome signs of cooling inflation.
Markets rose on Tuesday after the inflation report for November showed price gains slowed more than economists expected, offering investors clarity on the path of inflation and a sign that the Federal Reserve could slow down its interest rate increases.
The S&P 500 rose 1.6 percent by midday, extending the previous day’s gains. Still, the benchmark index is down about 15 percent for the year.
The report on consumer prices, the last major data release before the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday to set interest rates, provided a clear sign that inflation is cooling, prompting markets to move higher. For months, Wall Street has been looking for data that could encourage the Fed to moderate its interest rate increases, which the central bank has used to try to temper stubbornly high inflation. Higher interest rates have increased costs for companies and dampened consumer demand.
“That was about as good as investors could have hoped for,” said Rob Temple, global market strategist at Lazard. “The pieces are falling into place for the Fed to pause rate hikes early in 2023.”
Overall inflation was up 7.1 percent from a year ago, compared with economists’ expectations of 7.3 percent and down from 7.7 percent in October. The report is a welcome sign for investors after a mixed bag of economic data in recent weeks have delivered signals that suggest inflation may remain stubbornly high, weighing on markets.
The Consumer Price Index report showed inflation cooling in October, but a gauge of wholesale prices showed inflation rising more than expected last month. The job market also remains resilient, putting pressure on prices: Employers added 263,000 jobs in November — more than economists expected.
The Fed is expected to raise rates half a percentage point on Wednesday, which would represent a slowdown from increases of three-quarters of a point in previous meetings. At the same time, a rise in the markets make the Fed’s job harder because it enriches investors and stimulates the economy, the opposite of what central bankers are trying to do to bring down inflation.
The yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note, which closely tracks expectations for Fed rate moves, fell on Tuesday, as investors dialed back expectations for how high the Fed will ultimately raise rates. As the Fed has continued its campaign to increase rates to bring down inflation, the yield on the two-year bond has risen well above the 10-year equivalent, a rare but reliable sign of a recession.
The inflation report and the Fed meeting on Wednesday “will undoubtedly set the tone for financial markets as we head into next year,” economists at Deutsche Bank wrote in a research note on Friday.
“This was universally good from an inflation standpoint. It’s moving in the right direction,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities.
Joe Rennison contributed reporting.
Russia rejects Zelenskiy’s peace proposal, says Ukraine must accept new ‘realities’
BBC
Ukraine must take into account the new territorial “realities” that include Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions, the Kremlin has said in response to Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s three-step proposal for peace.
In a statement to G7 countries yesterday, the Ukrainian leader said Russia could begin to withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine to show they are capable of abandoning their aggression.
Zelenskiy told G7 leaders he was offering Moscow an “opportunity to make a real, meaningful step towards diplomatic settlement” of the conflict.
He said:
The holidays are ahead, celebrated by billions of people around the world: Christmas of the Gregorian calendar, New Year, Christmas of the Julian calendar. This is the time when normal people think about peace, not about aggression. I offer Russia the opportunity to at least try to demonstrate that they can abandon the way of aggression. It would be right to start withdrawing Russian troops from internationally recognised borders of Ukraine this Christmas. If Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine, it will ensure a lasting cessation of hostilities.
Russia does not have full control of any of the four provinces of Ukraine it says it annexed in September, but which most UN member countries have condemned as illegal.
In response, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine needed to accept new territorial “realities”, including that the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces of Ukraine were Russia’s “new subjects”.
Asked about the proposed Russian troop withdrawal, Peskov said:
The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed during this time. And these realities indicate that new subjects have appeared in the Russian Federation. They appeared as a result of referendums that took place in these territories. Without taking these new realities into account, no kind of progress is possible.
There could be “no question” of Moscow beginning to pull out its troops by the end of the year, he said.
Den snedvridna gasmarknaden
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El País today…
“EU måste prioritera medborgarnas rättigheter framför monopolvinster”
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Den snedvridna gasmarknaden
EU måste prioritera medborgarnas rättigheter framför monopolvinster
ANDREU MISSÉ
12 DIC 2022 - 05:45 CET
El País
Skrivet på spanska
Översättning av Germán & Co
En av de viktigaste trådarna i Europas historia är uppbyggnaden av en marknadsekonomi utan överdrifter. Det vill säga utan monopol och utan missbruk. Den europeiska modellen är inspirerad av Förenta staterna, som inledde sitt antitrustinitiativ med Sherman Antitrust Act 1890. I det första europeiska fördraget, Romfördraget från 1957, krävdes att en gemensam marknad skulle inrättas och att "konkurrensen inte skulle snedvridas". Det bakomliggande uppdraget var att uppnå "en snabbare höjning av levnadsstandarden och närmare förbindelser mellan de stater" som ingick i Europeiska ekonomiska gemenskapen. Många direktiv insisterar på att skydda konsumenterna mot missbruk och oansvarigt beteende. En uppgift som blir allt svårare.
Energikrisen har avslöjat hur katastrofalt EU:s gasmarknad fungerar, som utarmar miljontals människor till förmån för ett fåtal. Europeiska kommissionen har påpekat att gaspriserna steg med upp till 1 000 procent i augusti förra året jämfört med genomsnittet för det föregående decenniet. Den viktigaste mekanismen för prissättning av gas (spot och futures) är den nederländska TTF-marknaden, som står för 80 procent av den naturgas som handlas i EU.
Rysslands krig mot Ukraina som inleddes i februari har förvärrat gaspriserna. Men TTF:s överdrifter hade redan tidigare upptäckts, med ökningar på över 700 % under 2021. Europeiska kommissionen har noterat bristerna och anser att "TTF-indexet inte längre är en lämplig indikator för priserna i Europa".
TTF-indexet gör det möjligt för företag att skydda sig mot riskerna med prisobalanser genom att använda energiderivat. I studien Financial stability risks from energy derivatives markets, som utarbetats av Oana Furtuna, Alberto Grassi och andra experter, betonas att denna komplexa mekanism består av 1 700 energiderivatföretag, vars antal ökade med 30 procent under 2022. De påpekar att bankerna inom TTF står för majoriteten av derivatpositionerna, att krediterna till energibolag ökade med 200 procent på bara några månader och varnar för risken för den finansiella stabiliteten.
Inför denna situation har kommissionen föreslagit en "marknadskorrigeringsmekanism för att skydda medborgarna och ekonomin från alltför höga priser". Kommissionen föreslår ett tak på 275 euro per megawattimme, vilket har avvisats av Spanien och 14 andra länder, som anser att ingripandet är obetydligt. Nederländerna däremot försvarar sin verksamhet och avvisar varje ingripande. Samma sak gäller för Tyskland, som har sina egna nationella lösningar.
FN påminner oss om att de europeiska regeringarna har spenderat 600 miljarder euro på konsumentskyddsåtgärder för energikostnader, varav Tyskland har beviljat 264 miljarder euro.
Vi befinner oss inte i en kamp mellan interventionister och marknadsförespråkare. Alla marknader är reglerade. Det är en grov intressemotsättning mellan dem som prioriterar monopolvinster och dem som försvarar medborgarnas rättigheter och ser till att marknaden inte snedvrids. Det är en kamp som unionen inte får förlora.
The distorted gas market…
Most read…
El País today…
“The EU must prioritise citizens’ rights over monopoly profits”
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The distorted gas market
The EU must prioritise citizens' rights over monopoly profits
El País
Written in Spanish
Translation by Germán & Co
One of the main threads of European history is the construction of a market economy without excesses. That is, without monopolies and without abuses. The European model is inspired by the United States, which began its anti-trust initiative with the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. The first European treaty, the 1957 Treaty of Rome, called for the "establishment of a common market", guaranteeing that "competition will not be distorted". The underlying mission was to achieve "an accelerated raising of the standard of living and closer relations between the States" that made up the European Economic Community. Numerous directives insist on protecting consumers from abuse and irresponsible behaviour. A task that is becoming increasingly difficult.
The energy crisis has exposed the disastrous functioning of the EU gas market, which impoverishes millions of people for the benefit of a few. The European Commission has highlighted that gas prices rose by up to 1,000% last August compared to the average of the previous decade. The main gas price formation mechanism (spot and futures) is the Dutch TTF, which accounts for 80% of the natural gas traded in the EU.
Russia's war against Ukraine that started in February has exacerbated gas prices. But the excesses of the TTF had already been detected before, with rises of more than 700% in 2021. The European Commission has noted its failings and considers that "the TTF index is no longer an adequate indicator of prices in Europe".
The TTF allows companies to hedge the risks of price misalignments through the use of energy derivatives. The study Financial stability risks from energy derivatives markets, prepared by Oana Furtuna, Alberto Grassi and other experts, highlights that this complex mechanism is composed of 1,700 energy derivatives firms, whose number increased by 30% in 2022. They point out that in the TTF, banks account for the majority of derivative positions, that credit to energy companies increased by 200% in just a few months and warn of the risk to financial stability.
Faced with this situation, the Commission has proposed a "market correction mechanism to protect citizens and the economy from excessively high prices". It proposes a ceiling of 275 euros per megawatt hour, which has been rejected by Spain and 14 other countries, which consider the intervention insignificant. The Netherlands, on the other hand, defends its business and rejects any intervention. The same goes for Germany, which has its own national solutions.
The United Nations reminds us that European governments have spent 600 billion euros on consumer protection measures for energy costs, of which Germany has granted 264 billion euros.
We are not in a battle between interventionists and market advocates. All markets are regulated. It is a crude battle of interests, between those who prioritise monopoly profits and those who defend citizens' rights and ensure that the market is not distorted. It is a battle that the Union should not lose.
News round-up, Monday, December 12, 2022.
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“On Friday, President Putin claimed that their cruise missiles and hypersonic systems were ‘more modern and even more efficient’ than those in the United States. ”
— LE MONDE
Prince Putsch and His GangThe Motley Crew that Wanted to Topple the German Government
An obscure German blue blood is reportedly at the center of a strange plan to topple the German government foiled this week by the country's security services. Observers are describing the development as a dangerous escalation of the Reichsbürger movement, whose followers want to overthrow Germany's leaders.
Spiegel/NYT
European Silk Road
The truth is that there is no US or European public strategy comparable to that developed by China. To counter this, Biden at the G7 meeting sought the EU's commitment to create a $600 billion infrastructure fund for developing countries.
Borrell stated: 'If Europe wants to have influence as a geopolitical actor, it must pay more attention to what is happening in Latin America and the Caribbean', and Spain must place this issue in the spotlight.
ABC.ES
Air Products and AES Announce Plans to Invest Approximately $4 Billion to Build First Mega-scale Green Hydrogen Production Facility in Texas
Image: AES Source
“On Friday, President Putin claimed that their cruise missiles and hypersonic systems were ‘more modern and even more efficient’ than those in the United States. ”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
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Russia intensifying production of 'most powerful' weapons: Medvedev
On Friday, President Putin claimed that their cruise missiles and hypersonic systems were 'more modern and even more efficient' than those in the United States.
Le Monde with AFP
Published on December 11, 2022 at 10h30
Deputy head of Russia's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, center, visits the State Research and Production Enterprise "Region", a part of the Tactical Missile Armament Corporation in Kubinka, outside Moscow, Russia, November 23, 2022. EKATERINA SHTUKINA / AP
Russia's ex-president Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday the country was ramping up production of new-generation weapons to protect itself from enemies in Europe, the United States and Australia.
"We are increasing production of the most powerful means of destruction. Including those based on new principles," Mr. Medvedev said on messaging app Telegram.
"Our enemy dug in not only in the Kyiv province of our native Malorossiya," Mr. Medvedev said, using the term to describe territories of modern-day Ukraine that were part of the Russian Empire under the tsars.
"It is in Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and a whole number of other places that pledged allegiance to the Nazi." Mr. Medvedev, who serves as deputy head of Russia's Security Council, did not provide details of the weapons.
President Vladimir Putin repeatedly said that Russia has been developing new types of weapons including hypersonic weapons that he boasts can circumvent all existing missile defedefensence systems.
Since Mr. Putin sent troops to Ukraine on February 24, 57-year-old Medvedev has regularly taken to social media to write increasingly bombastic posts.
With Moscow on the back foot in its offensive in pro-Western Ukraine, the military stalemate has raised fears that Russia could resort to its nuclear arsenal to achieve a military breakthrough.
On Friday, Mr. Putin said Russia could amend its military doctrine by introducing the possibility of a preemptive strike to disarm an enemy, in an apparent reference to a nuclear attack.
The Kremlin chief claimed that Russia's cruise missiles and hypersonic systems were "more modern and even more efficient" than those in the United States.
Le Monde with AFP
Prince Putsch and His GangThe Motley Crew that Wanted to Topple the German Government
An obscure German blue blood is reportedly at the center of a strange plan to topple the German government foiled this week by the country's security services. Observers are describing the development as a dangerous escalation of the Reichsbürger movement, whose followers want to overthrow Germany's leaders.
By Maik Baumgärtner, Jörg Diehl, Roman Höfner, Martin Knobbe, Matthias Gebauer, Tobias Großekemper, Roman Lehberger, Ann-Katrin Müller, Sven Röbel, Fidelius Schmid und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt
The Waidmannsheil hunting lodge is enthroned on a hill on a bend of the Saale River in the southeastern part of the eastern German state of Thuringia. It belongs to the Reussens, a former noble family who ruled the area for 800 years before the end of the German monarchy.
It was built for Henry the 72nd between 1834 and 1837, a single-story structure surrounded by trees and a steep rocky embankment that falls away behind the building. The entrance portal is flanked by sculptures of a bear and boar, both of stone. A tower with battlements makes the whole thing look a lot like a small fortress. Stag antlers hang from the very top of the façade.
The present lord of the manor is Henry XIII. Prince Reuss, an entrepreneur who established himself in Frankfurt as a real estate mogul and as a producer of sparkling wine. Some residents of the small town had been wondering for some time what the 71-year-old was up to. First, a mysterious sign appeared with the Reussen coat of arms. Then a sinister looking figure with a walkie-talkie was seen standing at the entrance to the estate, apparently there to keep prying eyes out of a meeting.
Since Wednesday, it seems clear what was going on behind the massive walls. Early that morning, the GSG9, a special German police force, moved in to root out a suspected right-wing extremist terror cell. It is believed to include at least 25 members and helpers, and 29 other men and women are also under investigation. In concert with around 3,000 officers, investigators conducted raids in 11 German states as well as in the upscale Austrian ski resort town Kitzbühel and in Perugia, Italy. It was one of the largest operations against extremists in the history of the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA).
For weeks, investigators from the BKA's State Security Division had been shadowing suspects, tapping hundreds of landlines and mobile phones, screening bank accounts and monitoring channels on Telegram, YouTube and Instagram. Ultimately, the Federal Prosecutor in Karlsruhe concluded that a terrorist organization had emerged from the milieu of the "Reichsbürger," a motley crew of politically radicalized Germans who have a weakness for conspiracy theories and reject the legitimacy of postwar Germany. The cell's presumed goal was that of overthrowing the political system in Germany in an armed coup. According to investigators, some members formed the "military arm" of the group and were apparently willing to do whatever it took. According to the allegations brought forward by prosecutors, the defendants accepted the fact that "representatives of the current system" would be killed in the process.
It is a rather strange menagerie that came together to overthrow the state. It includes several former members of the German military's Special Forces Command (KSK), an active elite soldier, a police officer who had been suspended from duty, a judge who had been a member of the federal parliament with the far-right Alternative for Germany party for four years, a pilot, a lawyer who holds a doctorate degree, a top chef, a tenor singer, an entrepreneur and a doctor - a surprising number of people from the upper echelons of society.
They include members of the Querdenker, a muddled movement that took to the streets during the pandemic in protest against the federal and state measures to contain the coronavirus. It also includes followers of the conspiracy cult QAnon, who are convinced that a "deep state" is pulling the strings in the background. According to the narrative they espouse, the ruling elite murder children to harvest a rejuvenation serum.
Previously, these right-wing enemies of the state had seemed more like an esoteric political sect than a strictly hierarchical revolutionary commando. The problem is that there are probably tens of thousands of people in these circles in Germany who hold views similar to those of Prince Reuss and his followers.
If the investigators' suspicions are ultimately confirmed, it would mean that Germany finds itself faced with a new form of terrorism and an enormous societal challenge. How is the state supposed to deal with citizens with whom it is unclear if they are just dangerously insane or if they are insanely dangerous?
The world witnessed just how quickly a group of conspiracy theorists can turn into a violent mob in Washington, D.C., on January 6, 2021. That's the day around 1,000 supporters of then President Donald Trump, who had been voted out of office, advanced into the heart of American democracy, the Capitol, a mob that including a bare-chested man dressed as a Viking. The iconic image would later serve as a symbol for the vulnerability of democracy. And for how quickly people can throw out the societal rulebook.
The group associated with Henry XIII Prince Reuss appear to have modeled themselves after the far-right revolutionaries in the United States. Members are alleged to have spent a year planning for the German "Day X," on which, according to the investigation, they planned to enter the federal parliament building, the Reichstag, with around two dozen men and women. They intended to handcuff members of parliament and the chancellor's cabinet in the Bundestag.
According to investigators, some of the conspirators hoped that the action would spark unrest throughout the country and eventually lead to a coup. An interim government was to be formed, headed by Prince Reuss. "We're going to crush them, the fun is over!" he allegedly said in a call that the authorities were listening in on.
It is doubtful whether the alleged terrorists would actually have been capable of pulling off their crazy ideas. And not just because the Bundestag police have spent weeks preparing for the possibility of an attack, and the fact that the BKA's bodyguards, who provide protection for the most important government ministers, had been put on alert. Indeed, one "Day X" had already apparently passed without anything happening.
Nevertheless, the authorities assessed the danger posed by the wannabe revolutionaries as high. On their path to the great coup, they could have caused a lot of damage, and the fanaticism of some members could have led them to make unpredictable moves.
Investigators say they found weapons in more than 50 of the 150 buildings searched. They include nine-millimeter pistols, swords, knives, stun guns, combat helmets, night vision goggles and the service weapons of two police offices, one male, one female, who are among the suspects. In addition, according to a preliminary evaluation, investigators seized 130,000 euros in cash and several kilograms of silver and gold. "The investigations provide a view into the abyss of a terrorist threat from the Reichsbürger milieu," said German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). According to Federal Prosecutor Peter Frank, the group's goal was to eliminate democracy in Germany "by using violence and military means."
Reuss' dream of holding Germany's highest office ended on Wednesday morning at shortly after six. Special forces arrived at dawn with battering rams and night vision equipment and entered a 19th century building in Frankfurt's Westend neighborhood. Prince Reuss lives at the very top, on the fifth floor.
BKA officers searched the apartment as masked police officers secured the front door on the first floor. After around four hours, police led Prince Reuss out of the building in handcuffs and wearing an FFP2 mask. He wore a large plaid tan tweed jacket, rust brown corduroy pants, a shirt and neckerchief, his white hair slicked back - not exactly the appearance one might expect of a terrorist.
Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss descends from a broadly extended noble family that guided the fortunes of the Thuringian Vogtland region until the end of World War I. By family tradition, all male descendants receive the first name Heinrich. To avoid any confusion, there is an addition to the name: ascending Roman numerals. Each century, the numbering starts anew. A relative says there are currently 30 Heinrichs in the family.
Prince Reuss, born in the western state of Hesse in 1951, graduated with a degree in engineering and initially worked as an entrepreneur in Frankfurt. He is considered to be a bon vivant and is married to the daughter of an Iranian banker. His fondness for fast cars earned him the nickname "Heinrich the Race Driver" among his family. The headline of one newspaper report about a joyride taken together with him in eastern Germany read: "A Blue Blood with Gasoline in His Blood."
After the fall of the Berlin Wall, he fought in numerous court cases for the restitution of the family property in Thuringia, which had been expropriated by the Communist regime of East Germany. He had only limited success. Relatives also see this as one of the reasons for him drifting into the extremes.
He has fallen out with the rest of his family. The head of the "family alliance of the House of Reuss," who resides in Austria, let it be known in a statement that the relative is a "bitter old man" with "conspiracy theory delusions."
One can get a sense of those delusions on YouTube, with one video showing Prince Reuss at a digital trade show in Zürich. In broken English, he delivers a confused and anti-Semitic jeremiad. He laments the supposed power held by Jewish capitalists and claims that World War I played into the hands of U.S. business interests. He says that the Federal Republic of Germany isn't a sovereign state and that it is still dominated by the Allies to this very day - all central elements of the Reichsbürger ideology. The Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany's domestic intelligence agency, estimates that around 21,000 people in Germany are affiliated with the movement.
Over the summer, Prince Reuss was involved in a commotion in Bad Lobenstein. The town's mayor, who holds no political affiliation but is also known for adherence to conspiracy theories, invited him to a reception. A reporter with the Ostthüringer Zeitung newspaper asked why a "Reichsbürger" had been invited to an official event. At a reception following the event, the mayor then attacked the journalist, who fell to the ground. Later, the mayor was suspended from his post.
All of this could be dismissed as a provincial farce, but the authorities soon stumbled across clues hinting at Reuss' dangerous plans. Prosecutors would later accuse him of having aspired to build a "New German Army." So-called "Homeland Security Companies" in the Black Forest, Thuringia and Saxony had allegedly agreed to help with the "shadow army." A special commission made up of hundreds of BKA officers called "Shadows" has been investigating the case since summer.
The government will soon be replaced by something "new," one of the suspects announced on YouTube.
Rüdiger von Pescatore, 69, is thought to have played a leading role. Prior the pandemic, he spread the following message on the internet: "The truth will be accessible to mankind only after a system change."
In the mid-1990s, he had been a commander of a paratrooper battalion of the German armed forces Airborne Brigade 25 based in Calw near Stuttgart, a kind of predecessor to the elite KSK unit. That is, until he became the focus of a scandal in the Bundeswehr.
As a lieutenant colonel, he had diverted weapons from old stocks of the East German People's Police and the National People's Army for himself and others. During that time, 165 functioning pistols and rifles disappeared, and only 11 were recovered. A court sentenced Pescatore to two years' probation in 1999, ending his career in the Bundeswehr.
Investigators believe the former soldier led the "military arm" of the terror group.
Peter Wörner, a man who served in the same battalion as Pescatore in the 1990s and was trained as a survival commando by the Bundeswehr, is also thought to belong to this "New German Army." On Instagram, he posts photos from his active-duty days: skydiving in the Pyrenees, heavily armed in the Swabian Alb mountains, with American special forces in the U.S. The homegrown German Rambo is 54 years old.
Most recently, Wörner worked as a trainer teaching survival skills. In Germany and Norway, he teaches participants how to survive under the most adverse conditions. One of his courses is called "escape from urban areas." Another is "urban survival." He once told an Austrian newspaper that he couldn't rely on the state in an emergency. People are naive and unprepared, he said.
The German public TV station ZDF ran a segment about him in 2016. In it, Wörner is seen preparing a rat as a meal on the forest floor in the Rhön Mountains of Thuringia. Using a knife, you have to slit the animal once all around, he explains in the video, then you can easily peel off the skin, "like a pair of pants or a jacket."
Wörner first came onto the radar of terror investigators in the spring during an investigation into the Querdenker movement. During a search of his home in the Fichtelgebirge Mountains, police officers found a pistol and ammunition that Wörner was apparently not authorized to possess. In a YouTube video discovered by investigators, he talks about a coup. He says the government is nothing but a "criminal clique" that will soon be replaced by something "new."
Later, in conversations intercepted by investigators, the former elite soldier talks about storming the Reichstag building to arrest members of parliament.
His case would be the starting point for the investigation that led to Prince Reuss and his alleged plans to topple the government. And the network also apparently includes a soldier who is an active member of the KSK elite military force.
Andreas M. is assigned to the special Bundeswehr unit as a logistician, but he is more of a bureaucrat than a well-trained commando. Nevertheless, the staff sergeant has plenty of military experience, having served several tours in Afghanistan with the Bundeswehr. He even wrote a book about the war, called "You Can Die Every Day," a kind of eyewitness account from the front.
Following his deployments in Afghanistan, he joined the KSK in Calw. Fellow soldiers from the small, largely segregated elite unit describe the 58-year-old as being somewhat of an oddball, but otherwise not particularly compelling.
The fact that Andreas M. was trending toward radicalization could certainly have been detected by the KSK. By 2021, at the latest, his WhatsApp profile picture suggested a penchant for conspiracy theories, even mentioning the "deep state." But it would take months before his superiors at the KSK grew suspicious. In February, he refused to take the coronavirus vaccine. He wrote that it is questionable whether compulsory vaccination in the Bundeswehr is "compatible with the Allied occupation law still in force." At that point, they called in MAD, the military intelligence service. They then determined that he was part of the Querdenker movement and ordered him to take several weeks of sick leave.
Investigators believe that M. smuggled members of the suspected terrorist group into barracks in October using his military ID. Their deranged plan, according to the investigation, was to inspect whether the facilities would be suitable for housing their own troops after the coup.
The soldier apparently isn't the only person working for the government who used his free time to prepare for the elimination of that very state. Among those arrested was a judge at the Berlin Regional Court, Birgit Malsack-Winkemann, who holds a doctorate degree in law.
It was still dark out, when law enforcement officers closed in on her. Police officers snuck through the neighbor's backyard to her home in the upper middle class Berlin district of Wannsee. At 6 a.m., they banged their fists on the door. "Police," one yelled. Then there was a crash – the men used a crowbar to force their way into the judge's house.
Malsack-Winkemann is alleged to have been involved since summer in the plans to break into the Reichstag building. She would have been a valuable expert for preparations: From 2017 to 2021, the 58-year-old held a seat in the Bundestag as a member of the right-wing AfD party. Until her arrest, she was a member of the party's Federal Arbitration Court, which decides on expulsion proceedings against particularly extreme members. Her knowledge of the Bundestag could have been helpful to the terrorist group, the investigators believe. Until her arrest, she also possessed a pass to get into the Bundestag as a former member of parliament.
Malsack-Winkemann's lawyer declined to comment on the allegations, as did Prince Reuss' defense lawyer. Lawyers for most of the other defendants could not be reached for comment.
In her party, the judge was considered part of the less radical camp, which says quite a bit about the AfD. She was extremely adept at spreading agitation and fake news.
For example, she claimed in a speech in the Bundestag that refugees are "colonized with antibiotic-resistant bacteria." During the pandemic, she speculated that a 13-year-old girl died because she had been wearing a mask, an outright lie. She also described Donald Trump as a "true statesman," even after the storming of the Capitol that he had stoked.
In 2021, in a party conference speech, the lawyer called for resistance to the "Great Reset," a conspiracy ideology with anti-Semitic connotations, according to which "the elites" were using the coronavirus crisis to carry out a "great reboot" of the global economic system. In a Telegram channel bearing her name, messages with a slogan of the QAnon cult were disseminated until a few weeks ago. When DER SPIEGEL asked her if it was her channel, the AfD politician denied it. Shortly afterwards, the entries disappeared.
After she left the Bundestag, the Berlin judicial administration sought to prevent Malsack-Winkemann from returning to the regional court – initially without success. Since then, she has again been able to render verdicts at Chamber 19a, which is responsible for construction matters.
Even during the legal tug-of-war over her job, Malsack-Winkemann had become a target of terror investigators. Officers shadowed her and observed her as the judge met with Henry XIII Prince Reuss, the suspected ringleader, in a Berlin restaurant. Another AfD functionary was also present at the meeting.
Among the accused, there are at least two other men who are or were active in the AfD at the regional level. Also accused is Michael Fritsch, the leading candidate in the state of Lower Saxony for Die Basis, a party linked to the Querdenker movement, in the 2021 federal election. Within the scene, they call him the "protection man with a heart and a brain."
The 59-year-old used to be the chief detective at the Hannover Police Department. That is, until he attracted attention with crude statements at rallies and was suspended. He spoke of alleged parallels between the SS and today's "security apparatus." As early as 2020, Fritsch returned his German identity card and applied for a "citizenship card," as is customary in the Reichsbürger scene. He also requested to have his birth state changed to "Prussia." A court has since ruled that the police can remove him from the civil service, a decision he appealed. His defense attorney didn't want to comment on the terror allegations from the Federal Prosecutor's Office.
For all its bizarreness, what makes the group so dangerous is its deep hatred of the state and the governing politicians. And its access to weapons. Several of the defendants allegedly possessed pistols and rifles, some legally and others illegally.
According to investigators, some of the suspects practiced shooting on Oschenberg Mountain near Bayreuth in Bavaria. The conspiratorial actions of the group created a major headache for investigators. The hard core of the group allegedly equipped itself with around a dozen Iridium satellite phones that have a unit price of around 1,500 euros each. They would still work even if the mobile phone network collapsed. The conspirators also allegedly signed nondisclosure agreements. Those who violated the terms would face death, it stated.
According to investigators, Alexander Q. is among the supporters of Reuss' group. He runs one of the most trafficked German QAnon channels on Telegram, with more than 131,000 subscribers. His channel has an innocuous name: "Just ask us." But the hashtags he uses, such as WWG1WGA, quickly make clear what it is really about – the abbreviation stands for the motto of the QAnon disciples: Where we go one, we go all.
In his voice messages, he regularly railed against the "fascist regime" and spread fake news nonstop. In July 2021, shortly before the massive flooding disaster in Germany's Ahr Valley, he claimed, for example, that the flood water had washed up the corpses of 600 children. He claimed they had been imprisoned for years in underground facilities, where they were tortured and finally killed in order to deprive them of the metabolic chemical compound adrenochrome, which supposedly has a rejuvenating effect. The tale of murdered children is a popular conspiracy tale among followers of the QAnon cult.
Four weeks after the 2021 federal election in Germany, the Telegram propagandist posted a voice message on his channel warning of a large scale fraud – like the one in the U.S. In the eyes of QAnon supporters there, Donald Trump was removed from power through election fraud. The unleashed their fury by storming the Capitol.
Germany has also had a similar scare, although on a much smaller scale. In the summer of 2020, supporters of conspiracy theories stormed the stairs of the Reichstag building on the sidelines of a major protest in Berlin against measures aimed at containing the spread of the coronavirus. A QAnon disciple had given the signal to run: "We're going up there and taking our house back here today and from now on!" For a brief moment, only three policemen stood between the roaring crowd and the entrance gate to the house of parliament. Then reinforcements arrived and they succeeded in keeping parliament sealed off.
Why people from all educational and professional backgrounds believe in abstruse narratives is a question that researchers have tried to explore in recent years.
Social psychologist Pia Lamberty differentiates between misinformation and disinformation and broader conspiracy narratives. She says that people are particularly susceptible to fake news if they have neither the capacity nor the motivation to delve deeply into a topic. The simpler or more emotional the answers, the easier it is for them to catch on.
She says the belief in all-encompassing conspiracy narratives, on the other hand, has more to do with a person's own identity and psychological phenomena, with a general distrust of "powerful people" such as politicians or scientists, for example. That, she says, can lead to the conviction that everything bad that happens in society is the result of secret planning. Lamberty considers the group that has now been uncovered to be "extremely dangerous" precisely because of its composition.
The retreat of many people into the digital world during the pandemic has led to further growth in the number of people following and believing in conspiracy theories. In the relevant channels and networks, people found their peers turning hose channels into echo chambers that often lacked any countering viewpoints or factual comparisons. The war in Ukraine and the subsequent economic crisis have exacerbated that development. Crises act as catalysts for a fundamental critique of the system. "What is decisive for the success of the conspiracy theory is not its truth content, but its potential to plausibly resolve contradictions, neuroscientist and psychiatrist Philipp Sterzer writes in his book "The Illusion of Reason."
The result is a polarization of society, with the group that rejects the political system growing increasingly visible. It's a development that the British-American economist and Nobel Prize winner Angus Deaton, for example, currently believes is affecting the entire West. Deaton says it is related to the declining growth in recent decades.
As is the case with many movements in society, extremist groups develop on the fringes, believing that they can only achieve their goals through violence. During the 1968 era, it was groups like the far-left Red Army Faction, and, more recently, terrorist groups formed out of Salafist circles. And it was only a matter of time before radical groups would emerge from the coronavirus skeptics and the Querdenker movement, for whom protests in the streets or on the internet didn't go far enough.
The increasing propensity for violence within these circles had been apparent for some time. As the pandemic has progressed, the tone on relevant Telegram channels had become increasingly bellicose. There has been talk of "overthrowing the ruling criminal regime," of "revenge" that would be cruel: "They will all be hanged in the end."
As early as May 2021, the Interior Ministry for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, warned that such violent digital fantasies could lead "to the establishment of terrorist structures." The different branches at the federal and state level of Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, increasingly started infiltrating "virtual agents" into chat groups: with fake profiles whose authors only pretend to belong to the scene in order to be able to detect when words turn into deeds. But the sheer number of channels makes it impossible for authorities to keep track of all potential perpetrators of violence.
Radical circles that had long marched separately also came together on the streets. They included right-wing extremists, the Reichsbürger, followers of the anti-Muslim group PEGIDA, fans of the AfD, New Age esoterics and opponents of vaccination. In the end, it barely mattered whether it was against the anti-corona measures, the government's position in the Ukraine war or the skyrocketing prices. What united them is their hatred of "the people at the top."
From the stages of the demonstrations, speakers chanted once again that "the Reichstag should be swept out," and all the members of parliament should be replaced. They railed that government ministers were crazy or "just mercenaries" waging economic war against the German people. That there is a need for "resistance" and that the police should join them. They longed for a coup.
Some followed their sense of longing even before Prince Reuss and his group were accused of planning the coup.
Several months ago, a group from the Reichsbürger and Querdenker circles apparently made plans to kidnap German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach. They wanted to abduct him while he was on a talk show, live on camera. The code word for the operation: "Klabautermann," the name for hobgoblin from German mythology. According to investigators, Lauterbach's bodyguards were to be taken out with shots from machine guns, after which point the government was to be forced to resign. According to court records, the group also wanted to get their blessing for the coup from Russia.
Emissaries wanted to cross the Baltic Sea to Kaliningrad by ship and ask for an audience with the Kremlin – with Vladimir Putin himself. Five suspected members of the cell are in custody.
A completely insane plan. What is known is that the group had already secured weapons and was trying to get its hands on more. An undercover investigator from the Rhineland-Palatinate State Criminal Police Office possibly thwarted worse from happening.
Two cases from Baden-Württemberg show how unpredictable the threat really is. In April, the police wanted to confiscate a weapon from a Reichsbürger ideologue who had been banned from possessing it. When police in the town of Boxberg-Bobstadt arrived to search the house, the man fired several dozen shots from a fully automatic rifle, injuring two officers. On the Reichsbürger's property, the investigators discovered a kind of walk-in armory, and they found a machine gun that had been set up in the living room.
A few weeks earlier, a Reichsbürger adherent had apparently deliberately run over a policeman during a traffic check in the southern Baden region in the state. He told the magistrate they didn't have the right to arrest him, that the magistrate lacked the "legal capacity."
The authorities long underestimated the movement of "Reichsbürger and self-administrators." Many laughed them off as crackpots who wield in fantasy IDs and proclaim kingdoms. But dangerous? They thought not.
That view has since changed completely. The ideological stubbornness and irrationality make supporters of the Reichsbürger movement particularly dangerous, says one senior investigator.
One man whose radicalization took place on the open stage is Maximilian Eder. Investigators also count him among the group surrounding Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss. He is alleged to have received 50,000 euros from him to further equip their "military arm," the "New German Army." It is unclear how that money was eventually used – some fellow campaigners have accused him of squandering it.
Eder, now 63, served as colonel in the Bundeswehr. In 1999, he led a Bavarian armored infantry battalion into Kosovo. Prior to his retirement in the autumn of 2016, he served intermittently in the KSK. During the pandemic, he became one of the leading figures of the radical protests against the government and its anti-coronavirus measures.
At one Querdenker demonstration, he demanded that KSK fighters should conduct a "thorough purge in Berlin." He called mandatory vaccinations for soldiers a "crime against humanity."
When a flood in Rhineland-Palatinate inundated the Ahr Valley in July 2021, Eder and his fellow campaigners cast themselves as helpers for people in distress. The retired colonel appeared on the scene in uniform and signed official-looking deployment orders with leading figures in the Querdenker movement. The supposed helpers set up shop in Ahrweiler in a former school. Eder described himself as the "leader of the command center" and to former elite soldier Peter Wörner, also arrested this week, as the "chief of staff."
Rather than helping, though, the men and their followers only created trouble in the flood zone. In the end, the city had the school cleared out. Eder was fined 3,500 euros for the unauthorized wearing of uniforms.
The retired officer grew increasingly radicalized. In November in a video filmed deep in Bavaria, he called for a coup. In it, Eder can be seen standing in the middle of the forest, in Bundeswehr camouflage, shaking a rock. If "a few determined people" got to work, the system could be shaken up, he says in it. And all this won't take much longer, the retired colonel says as if some oracle, "it will be before Christmas." Now, he is being held in pretrial detention.
Much of what the Reuss troops are accused of having planned seems like something out of a bad, feverish dream. In addition to a military arm, it is said to have had a political arm that met at least five times this year: the so-called "Council," a kind of shadow government.
The group already appears to have reached agreement on some cabinet posts. Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss was likely intended as head of state, and Judge Malsack-Winkemann as justice minister. But as in real life, there appears to have been infighting over power and posts in the shadow cabinet. According to the investigations, the leadership of the finance ministry had been especially controversial. One candidate some comrades would have liked to see on the "Council" apparently isn't liked by Prince Reuss. And the candidate designated as "foreign minister" apparently preferred to become finance minister.
The group wasn't very successful in its foreign policy ambitions. An attempt to get Russia's blessing for a coup failed. Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss and his girlfriend Vitalia B., who is from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, are said to have paid visits to the Russian Consulate General in Leipzig, but according to the Federal Prosecutor's Office, there is nothing to suggest that the Russians "reacted positively to his request." Vitalia B.'s defense lawyer initially didn't want to comment on the accusations.
Apparently, there were hardly any bounds to the insanity of the political sect. According to investigators, the group firmly believed in a supposed international secret alliance, the "Alliance." The men and women are said to have waited longingly for the "Alliance" to rush to their aid – and "clean out" the upper echelons of the Federal Republic of Germany. Then they could upend the rest of the country.
The conspirators had also already filled some rather unusual posts in their shadow government. The office of the representative for "spirituality and healing" was to be led by a doctor from the state of Lower Saxony, who reportedly gave the group 20,000 euros. Meanwhile, an astrologer from the Bergstrasse district in the state of Hesse was to be responsible for "transcommunication."
About Our Reporting
Like other media, DER SPIEGEL reported very early on Wednesday morning about the police action. Since then, we have been asked how we knew about it. The answer: through contacts and sources. When ministries in 11 states and the federal government, when dozens of Offices for the Protection of the Constitution and state criminal investigation departments and thousands of officers are involved, well-connected reporters are likely to hear about it. That’s not a peculiarity of this case, it's our job. You have to handle this kind of knowledge responsibly. We don't want to endanger anyone, because if a raid escalates, you are putting human lives at risk. We only report comprehensively, independently and unfettered when, in our view, the time is right.
Her website offers predictions for the future. The coming years will be a time of "great upheaval, economically, medically and politically," she predicts. But if you do "the right thing at the right time in the right place," then "nothing can go wrong." On Wednesday, the investigating judge also ordered her pretrial detention.
For the BKA and the federal prosecutor, Wednesday's large-scale raid was an unprecedented feat. The state security authorities had only a few weeks to conduct an investigation on a scale that has likely never been seen before in Germany. More than 3,000 police officers with the BKA, the Federal Police and the state authorities had to coordinate in order to be able to access the scene simultaneously in the early morning hours. They specified in detail which official would be where, what that official was responsible for doing and how they could be reached. In the end, the mission succeeded.
At 6:48 a.m., the word was that all the suspected conspirators had been arrested.
The Prince, the Plot and a Long-Lost Reich
Prince Heinrich XIII was arrested last week as the suspected ringleader of a plan to overthrow the German government. Nostalgic for an imperial past, he embraced far-right conspiracy theories.
By Erika Solomon and Katrin Bennhold
Erika Solomon traveled to Bad Lobenstein, a spa town about three hours south of Berlin, to report this story. Katrin Bennhold, who has written extensively on the far right in Germany, reported from Berlin.
Dec. 11, 2022
The crenelated hunting lodge of Prince Heinrich XIII of Reuss sits atop a steep hill, looking out over homes laced with snow and Christmas lights in Bad Lobenstein. Popular with the local mayor and many nearby villagers, the prince spent his weekends in the spa town, giving an aristocratic flair to this sleepy corner of rural eastern Germany.
But there was a darker side to his idyll.
Heinrich XIII, prosecutors and intelligence officials say, also used his lodge to host meetings where he and a band of far-right co-conspirators plotted to overthrow the German government and execute the chancellor. In the basement, the group stored weapons and explosives. In the forest that sloped beneath the lodge, they sometimes held target practice.
Last week the Waidmannsheil lodge, a three-hour drive south of Berlin in the state of Thuringia, was one of 150 targets raided by security forces in one of postwar Germany’s biggest counterterrorist operations. By Friday, 23 members of the cell had been detained across 11 German states and 31 others placed under investigation. The police discovered troves of arms and military equipment as well as a list of 18 politicians and journalists deemed to be enemies.
Prince Heinrich XIII, 71, a well-off descendant of a 700-year-old noble family, may seem an unlikely ringleader of such a terrorist plot. But, prosecutors say, he was designated by his co-conspirators to become head of state in a post-coup regime.
Nostalgic for the pre-1918 German empire, when his ancestors reigned over a state in eastern Germany, he had openly embraced a conspiracy theory that has gained momentum in far-right circles: that Germany’s postwar republic is not a sovereign country but a corporation set up by the Allies after World War II.
Followers of this conspiracy theory call themselves Reichsbürger, or Citizens of the Reich. And there are a lot of them in southeastern Thuringia, the state where the Nazis first won power locally more than 90 years ago, before going on to establish the Third Reich.
Today the state’s biggest political force is the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD — one of whose former lawmakers was arrested as part of the prince’s alleged plot last week.
But it is the Reichsbürger who have brought Bad Lobenstein the most notoriety, to the chagrin of local hoteliers and vintners seeking to attract tourists to the area, where stone buildings and medieval church spires dot rolling landscapes of pine forests and lakes.
“They keep us pretty busy,” said Andree Burkhardt, a local councilman. “But I could never have imagined we had a scene here that was that militant.”
Spain and the EU's scope for action as Russia and China gain presence in Latin America
Spain's role is to put South America on the European agenda, while the US renews alliances
Russia and especially China are gaining ground in Latin America and beginning to make the United States nervous
ALEXIA COLUMBA JEREZ
12/12/2022
"The world is a competitive arena that cannot be left unattended". This is the idea shared by José Ignacio Torreblanca, director of the Madrid office of the think tank ECFR, referring to Russia's interest in Latin America and China's extraordinarily growing presence in the region (http://www.abc.es/gestordocumental/uploads/economia/rutadeseda.pdf). Both powers have taken advantage of the vacuum left by the US and Europe for decades to strengthen ties with the region. The end of the Cold War and 9/11 left Latin America behind. On balance, Xi Jinping has visited South American countries more times than former president Barack Obama in two terms in office.
In this scenario, the EU is seeking to make up for lost time, with a debatable margin for doing so. And it could find in the region a destination for energy diversification in the future. Spain can play a considerable role in this process, given that next year it will assume the rotating presidency of the EU Council. And it intends to put the issue of Latin America on the European agenda.
At the recent ECLAC meeting in Argentina, Josep Borrell said that Latin America is a 'powerhouse in terms of biodiversity, renewable energy, agricultural production and raw materials'. He also mentioned the 'enormous' reserves of lithium: "In Brussels everyone talks about how much lithium there is in China and Afghanistan, but we must remember that 60% of the world's reserves of this strategic mineral are in the lithium triangle formed by Bolivia, Argentina and Chile. You don't need to look for it in China, it's here".
Children in Ukrainian orphanages: "They are unloaded like corpses, and they stay all their lives, it's their destiny".
ALEXIA COLUMBA JEREZ
But as Sonia Alda, professor in the Department of International Relations at the University of Comillas reminds us, "there are European countries that are completely foreign to the region and have other priorities. Spain has tried to maintain its presence in the region, but does not seem to have succeeded at all". Meanwhile, the Global South looks to the West with the feeling that "they have only been invited to the top table belatedly", Torreblanca points out.
And Latin America in particular has long been seen as the US's backyard. The challenge is to convince Latin American countries that there is a real interest in constructive, long-term relations. This challenge is compounded by the fact that the response of Latin American countries is disparate, without a single voice, which may condemn the region to a secondary role, despite its potential.
As Inés Gaviria points out for the IEEE, Latin America is one of the regions of the world with the greatest economic potential. It has a surface area of 20 million km2, equivalent to twice the size of Europe or the USA, "where 40 % of the planet's biodiversity is found, 28 % of the natural water reserves, 43 % of the world's biodiversity, and 43 % of the world's natural water reserves. It also has 43% of the world's copper and 40% of its nickel reserves. And it has a population of more than 64 million inhabitants, 9 % of the world's population," says Gaviria.
This is why China and Russia, each with different methods and objectives, have set their sights on the possibilities offered by the various countries in the region for the pursuit of their interests and to send a symbolic message to the US: that this region no longer has the potential to be the region of the future. This is a symbolic message to the US that the region is no longer under the monopoly of the United States. Especially in the case of China, with a diversified and courting deployment, materialised in the New Silk Road, which 21 South American countries have already joined.
Alda stresses that "nobody could have foreseen that a communist regime would be able to understand the capitalist project of globalisation so well. The West, almost as a matter of arrogance, has underestimated its capacity".
The Asian giant already lends more to Latin American governments than the Inter-American Bank, the Development Bank of Latin America and the IMF combined. Beijing's activity has Washington worried. This was evident with the Panama Canal, under US control for much of the 20th century. But in 2017, the Chinese consortium Landbridge signed a deal to build a deep-water port.
Health diplomacy
In addition, the pandemic opened a window of opportunity for China and Russia, while the US and the EU were focused on their domestic situation. Russia and China, using "health diplomacy", supplied Latin America with vaccines and medical equipment. This has allowed the Asian country to gain support on the Taiwan issue. The Dominican Republic and El Salvador have switched from recognising Taiwan to recognising China. And tenders that used to be won by Americans, Spaniards or other European countries are now being won by Chinese capital.
Carlos Malamud, senior researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute and professor of American History at the UNED, points out that 'at this complicated time for the region, marked by the post-pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, having a secure market for its commodity exports is very important'. And Elcano researchers state in a report that 'Latin America is faced with the dilemma of ratifying the West or moving closer to others that bring new commercial opportunities', and they do not want to be forced to choose. Thus, many Latin American countries have not followed Russia's sanctions.
Moscow's relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean has focused primarily on its historical allies: Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. In January Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, said he did not rule out the deployment of military forces in Venezuela and Cuba. While Russia's military and budgetary capacity prevents it from viewing this threat with real concern, this is not the first time it has used Latin America as a warning. In 2008, because of the conflict in Georgia, Russia deployed Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers in Venezuela and ships such as the nuclear-powered cruiser Peter the Great. The same happened in 2013 and 2018.
Malamud notes that 'Russia's presence in Latin America has focused on energy and arms sales'. Plus the value that military training, agricultural and fertiliser purchases from Russia can have for the Latin American region. Added to this is Putin's information war to destabilise the region using the Sputnik news agency and the Russia Today television network that reaches 20 million viewers every week in Latin America.
The truth is that its entry points are much more limited than those of China. Russian companies Rostec and Rosboronexport are involved in arms sales to different parts of the region; in Venezuela they have sold 11 billion dollars worth of arms and the mercenaries of the Wagner group are present.
At the same time, in Cuba, it condones the Cuban debt and is key in the area of financing. And in Nicaragua, it has financed military and national intelligence modernisation. This country was one of the few to recognise Crimea as an independent nation. Moreover, in February the Argentine president visited Moscow, as did Bolsonaro, since Brazil is Russia's main economic partner and part of the Brics (a group of emerging economies made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
Atomic factor
The nuclear industry is key to China and Russia's landing in the region. Rosatom, which has built a research reactor in Bolivia and two nuclear reactors in Argentina, stands out.
"In 2015, the company opened a regional office in Latin America due to the various agreements and memorandums that several Latin American governments signed with Russia. Since then, the company's track record has expanded in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Cuba, Paraguay and Peru. The most recent is between Nicaragua and Russia. But the terms and investment of the agreements are unknown. In this scenario, Europe has been the least likely to see a risk in these agreements. It is focused on the war in Ukraine and the future of energy," says Adriana Boersner, professor of political science at the University of South Carolina Aiken.
In the space industry, Russia provides the Glonass satellite structure, with ground stations in Nicaragua or Brazil. And in the hydrocarbon sector, Rosneft, Gazprom or Lukoil have projects in Ecuador, Colombia and Bolivia. But the course of the current war, with military weapons that are proving ineffective and Russia's dependence on obsolete equipment, has allowed Chinese companies to gain ground. South America exported $5 billion to Russia, compared to $66 billion to the US and $119 billion to China, according to Harvard University.
Xi Jinping's China
China, with a voracious appetite for what Latin America has to offer, proceeds with large infrastructure and connectivity projects, buys Latin American companies or lends money regardless of political ideology. It has become the world's banker and the main export destination for countries such as Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Uruguay and Peru. A gigantic and rapidly growing market is opening up to them.
Its activities are diversified: it is building a space station in Argentina, an elevated metro in Colombia, a port in Peru, a hydroelectric power station in Ecuador, it has a 23% stake in the third largest energy company in Brazil and is deploying fibre optics in Chile. And between 2001 and 2018, Venezuela has signed 500 agreements with Beijing. China has lent around $137 billion to Latin America. The loans - which are now on hold - were conditional on paying part of them with oil, using them for purchases from China and only signing contracts with Chinese companies for works in the region.
And especially from 2018 onwards, the Asian giant began to emphasise the digital Silk Road. However, Malamud qualifies that "in the framework of direct investment the US and Europe are still superior to China, and this gives them both an important starting position".
European Silk Road
The truth is that there is no US or European public strategy comparable to that developed by China. To counter this, Biden at the G7 meeting sought the EU's commitment to create a $600 billion infrastructure fund for developing countries.
And the EU plans to allocate 3.4 billion euros to Latin America and the Caribbean under the Global Gateway programme, with the aim of financing global infrastructure and the green and digital transitions. Borrell stated: 'If Europe wants to have influence as a geopolitical actor, it must pay more attention to what is happening in Latin America and the Caribbean', and Spain must place this issue in the spotlight.
News round-up, Thursday, December 08, 2022.
Most read…
Russia owns the only plant in the world capable of reprocessing spent uranium. The war in Ukraine has put into question the future of the reprocessing sector.
By Perrine Mouterde and Marjorie Cessac
Published on December 3, 2022
Le Monde
Peru: Impeached president Pedro Castillo arrested, vice president Dina Boluarte sworn in as new leader
Le Monde
Saving Indonesia's Capital
A Simple but Genius Plan for Jakarta
Spiegel
Image: The cooling towers of the Seversk plant in Siberia (Russia), November 2, 2010. DMITRI SHIPULIA / RUSSIAN WIKIPEDIA / PUBLIC DOMAIN
“Risk of saturation. Between 1972 and 2010, several thousand tonnes of RepU were sent to Russia. In 2010, these exports ended for economic reasons – the price of natural uranium was low – but also for environmental reasons since the process used to transform uranium at Seversk at the time was particularly polluting. Since 2013, the reuse of converted and re-enriched RepU, which is only possible at the Cruas power plant (southern France), has stopped. EDF confirmed that it wanted to restart this operation in 2023 “at least for a recharge” in order to “demonstrate the recyclable nature of the RepU.””
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Russia owns the only plant in the world capable of reprocessing spent uranium
The war in Ukraine has put into question the future of the reprocessing sector.
By Perrine Mouterde and Marjorie Cessac
Published on December 3, 2022
The cooling towers of the Seversk plant in Siberia (Russia), November 2, 2010. DMITRI SHIPULIA / RUSSIAN WIKIPEDIA / PUBLIC DOMAIN
Unlike other Eastern European countries, France does not depend on Russia to operate its 18 power plants. Natural uranium is imported from Niger, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Australia. It is then converted and enriched in the nuclear fuel cycle company Orano's facilities at the Malvési and Tricastin sites, both located in southern France. Fuels are then manufactured by the French company Framatome or the American company Westinghouse.
But the war in Ukraine, which has exposed European and global dependence on the Russian nuclear industry, is not totally without consequences for the French sector. Today, only one facility can "recycle" the uranium from the fuel used in the complex's 56 reactors: the Seversk plant, located in the Tomsk region of Siberia, which belongs to the Russian group Rosatom.
A definitive halt to uranium trade between Paris and Moscow would inevitably have consequences for an already weakened reprocessing sector and in the long run could lead to uranium from spent fuel being considered as additional waste to be managed, rather than as a potentially reusable material.
For the past two years, France has sent uranium to Russia. The anti-nuclear NGO Greenpeace has documented at least five deliveries between January 2021 and January 2022: 11 containers loaded in the port of Le Havre on February 12, 2021; 20 containers loaded in Dunkerque on October 29, 2021; and 13 containers in the same port in November 2021. On September 28, 2022, seven months after the invasion of Ukraine began, the organization revealed that the Russian cargo ship Mikhail Dudin was docked in the port of Dunkerque.
"The cargo ship's non-stop return trips between St. Petersburg and Dunkerque show the extent to which the French nuclear industry is trapped by its dependence on Russia," said Pauline Boyer, Greenpeace's energy and nuclear transition campaigner. "France must urgently stop all nuclear energy trade with Russia." The nuclear sector is not subject to European sanctions.
Contract with Rosatom closed
The French group Orano, which owns the reprocessed uranium (RepU) mainly from foreign power plants and which signed a contract in 2020 with Rosatom, has confirmed that it has made "five or six deliveries" to Russia, amounting to a volume of 1,150 tonnes. However, the company told Le Monde that this contract has now been closed, with the final uranium shipment having taken place in October 2022. Orano also says it is not considering signing a new contract with the Russian nuclear giant.
For EDF, which operates French power plants and therefore owns the reprocessed uranium from spent fuel, the stakes are higher. In 2018, the multinational electric utility company signed a contract with a Rosatom subsidiary, Tenex, to process RepU, also at Seversk. In March 2022, the High Committee for Transparency and Information on Nuclear Safety stated that EDF "has been sending batches for re-enrichment since 2021." At the end of October, Orano was not considering investing in a conversion facility in the short term, due to a lack of sufficient outlets.
When contacted, the company did not give details of the implementation of this contract but assured that "no delivery or import" of uranium to or from Russia "has taken place since February 2022." According to information from Greenpeace, the government has summoned EDF to stop its exports. The ministry of energy transition does not wish to comment on this matter.
EDF also claims to have "initiated discussions" with Orano and Westinghouse to set up a RepU conversion facility in Western Europe. "The plant's construction will take about 10 years and will postpone the ability to reuse this material," the energy company explained. "In the meantime, the RepU will be stored at Pierrelatte [southern France], in warehouses." At the end of October, Orano was not considering investing in a conversion facility in the short term, due to a lack of adequate outlets. "We are available if there is a need, but there must be a real demand to develop a new facility," the group explained, adding that, "for the moment, there [was] no urgency."
France is in fact one of the only countries to have opted for reprocessing, and therefore to need such facilities. Once the spent fuel assemblies are unloaded from the power plants and cooled, the elements that make them up are separated: the residual waste (4%) is stored at La Hague (northern France); the plutonium (1%) is sent to Marcoule (southern France) to make a new fuel called Mox; the reprocessed uranium (95%) is sent to Orano's facilities in Pierrelatte. Officially intended for reuse, the plutonium and RepU are considered radioactive materials, not waste.
Risk of saturation
Between 1972 and 2010, several thousand tonnes of RepU were sent to Russia. In 2010, these exports ended for economic reasons – the price of natural uranium was low – but also for environmental reasons since the process used to transform uranium at Seversk at the time was particularly polluting. Since 2013, the reuse of converted and re-enriched RepU, which is only possible at the Cruas power plant (southern France), has stopped. EDF confirmed that it wanted to restart this operation in 2023 "at least for a recharge" in order to "demonstrate the recyclable nature of the RepU."
In the Pierrelatte warehouses, nearly 34,000 tonnes of RepU are accumulating, with stocks increasing by about 1,000 tonnes per year. Because of the risk of saturation, new storage capacity is to be put into service soon. The situation had already prompted the French nuclear safety authority (ASN) to mention, in October 2020, "the prospect of a possible requalification of reprocessed uranium as radioactive waste for volumes not used." Even if the RepU were reused from 2023, this would not be enough to compensate for the annual production, the nuclear watchdog explained.
"In the event that there is no prospect of long-term use for reprocessing uranium, it should then be requalified and managed as waste," the ASN maintained. "The decision whether or not to continue reprocessing belongs to the institutional and industrial stakeholders." "Either a conversion project sees the light of day outside Russia, or we will have to repose the question of RepU's classification," said Igor Le Bars, director of safety expertise at the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire.
Opponents of nuclear energy have long denounced the choice of reprocessing, considered a means of "maintaining the illusion of a 'green' fuel cycle and nuclear power," although this option generates costs, as well as transport materials, and waste. While the industry emphasizes that 96% of spent fuel is "recoverable," only plutonium is currently reused.
The Melox plant (southern France), where Mox fuel is manufactured from plutonium along with depleted uranium, has also experienced great difficulties in recent years. The nuclear industry, however, maintains the idea that reprocessing makes it possible to reduce the quantity of natural uranium excavated, as well as the volume of waste involved.
Perrine Mouterde and Marjorie Cessac
Peru: Impeached president Pedro Castillo arrested, vice president Dina Boluarte sworn in as new leader
The president of Peru was ousted by Congress after he sought to dissolve the legislative body and take unilateral control of the government, triggering a constitutional crisis.
Le Monde with AP and AFP
Published on December 7, 2022
Peru's leftist president Pedro Castillo was ousted by lawmakers and arrested Wednesday, December 7, in a dizzying series of events in a country long prone to political upheaval. Dina Boluarte, a 60-year-old lawyer, was sworn in as Peru's first female president just hours after Mr. Castillo tried to dissolve Congress in a move criticized as an attempted coup.
The day of high drama began with Mr. Castillo facing his third impeachment attempt since the former rural school teacher unexpectedly won power from Peru's traditional political elite in an election 18 months ago.
In a televised address to the nation, the 53-year-old announced that he was dissolving the opposition-dominated Congress, installing a curfew and would rule by decree. As criticism poured in over the address, lawmakers defiantly gathered earlier than planned to debate the impeachment motion and approved it, with 101 votes out of a total of 130 lawmakers.
Mr. Castillo was impeached for his "moral incapacity" to exercise power, after a litany of crises including six investigations against him, five cabinet reshuffles and large protests. The constitution allows impeachment proceedings to be brought against a president based on alleged political rather than legal wrongdoing – making impeachments commonplace in Peru.
Mr. Castillo was arrested on Wednesday evening, said Marita Barreto, coordinator of a team of prosecutors who deal with government corruption. A source in the attorney general's office told Agence France-Presse he was being investigated for rebellion. Mr. Castillo became the third president since 2018 to be sacked under the "moral incapacity" provision in the constitution.
In this photo provided by Peru's police administration office, former president Pedro Castillo, second from left, and former prime minister Anibal Torres, far left, sit as prosecutor Marco Huaman stands at the center inside a police station, where Mr. Castillo and Mr. Torres' status was not immediately clear. In Lima, Peru, on December 7, 2022. AP
Within two hours, Ms. Boluarte took the oath of office in front of Congress to serve out the rest of Mr. Castillo's term, until July 2026. Peru is no stranger to political instability: It had three different presidents in five days in 2020 and is now on its sixth president since 2016.
Political outsider
After the impeachment vote, Mr. Castillo left the presidential palace with a bodyguard, heading to the Lima police headquarters before his arrest was officially announced. His supporters criticized their leader's ousting. "I want to denounce the fact that our president has been kidnapped by the national police, that he has been detained with premeditation and treachery by Congress," said retired soldier Manuel Gaviria, 59,
Mr. Castillo came out of seemingly nowhere to win 50.12% of votes in a June 2021 runoff election against right-wing Keiko Fujimori, the corruption-charged daughter of graft-convicted ex-president Alberto Fujimori.
He was born in a small village where he worked as a teacher for 24 years, and was largely unknown until he led a national strike in 2017 that forced the then-government to agree to pay rise demands. Mr. Castillo sought to portray himself as a humble servant of the people, traveling on horseback for much of his presidential campaign and promising to end to corruption.
However, allegations against him quickly flooded in. The investigations he is facing range from alleged graft and obstruction of justice to plagiarizing his university thesis. In October, Peru's attorney general also filed a constitutional complaint accusing Mr. Castillo of heading a criminal organization involving his family and allies.
Mr. Castillo and his lawyers long argued the investigations against him were part of a plot to unseat him. "This intolerable situation cannot continue," he said earlier Wednesday as he announced he planned to convene a new Congress to draft a new constitution within nine months.
'Now former president'
Hundreds of protesters gathered in front of Congress ahead of the vote. "We are tired of this corrupt government that was stealing from day one," said 51-year-old Johana Salazar.
Ricardo Palomino, a 50-year-old systems engineer, said Mr. Castillo's attempt to dissolve parliament was "totally unacceptable and unconstitutional. It went against everything and these are the consequences."
Ahead of the impeachment, the United States demanded Castillo "reverse his decision," before saying it no longer considered him to be the president. "My understanding is that, given the action of the Congress, he is now former president Castillo," State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters, saying lawmakers took "corrective action" in line with democratic rules.
Le Monde with AP and AFP
How Will China Turn Its Economy Back On? The World Is About to Find Out.
Strict “zero Covid” curbs have been smothering growth. After easing them, Beijing faces the twin challenges of rising caseloads and wary consumers.
A deserted shopping mall in Shanghai on Thursday. Spending might not bounce back swiftly, economists warn. Credit...Qilai Shen for The New York Times
Reporting from Shanghai
Dec. 8, 2022, 5:13 a.m. ET
For months, investors and C.E.O.s waited anxiously for China to ease up on its Covid restrictions, which burdened the economy and were out of sync with the rest of the world. Stock markets rallied on mere rumors of policy changes. Companies warned that “zero Covid” was hurting business.
Now that China has finally started rolling back its strict mix of mass testing, lockdowns and quarantines, its economy is entering a delicate period when it will face a set of challenges that do not fit neatly with other countries’ experiences during the pandemic.
Spending by consumers is unlikely to reawaken swiftly after being smothered for so long, analysts say. China faces a severe downturn in housing and must race to vaccinate more of its population, especially seniors. China’s factories, the motor of the country’s commerce with the world, confront weakening demand from key trading partners like the United States and Europe, both of which are staring down possible recessions.
“China’s economy has been hobbled in ways we really don’t understand,” said Han Lin, China country director in Shanghai for the Asia Group, a Washington consulting firm.
In the West, economies recovered quickly when households were freed from pandemic restrictions. Many workers had saved their paychecks while working from home and also socked away government assistance checks. When the threat from Covid receded, consumers began eating out again and snapped up airline tickets and hotel rooms.
China’s management of its pandemic economy has been completely different.
Ryan Lam, a 30-year-old marketer in Guangzhou, went out for several meals to celebrate the end to that city’s repeated lockdowns. But he is switching back to eating at home to save money. His goal is to put aside half his salary.
“Private companies have been cutting spending,” he said. “The pandemic is like a catalyst, making my worries worse.”
As recently as last spring, supply disruptions caused by regional lockdowns were the main problem facing China’s economy. But except for some high-profile cases — notably the giant Foxconn facility in Zhengzhou, which makes Apple iPhones and has lost revenue because of unrest by workers fed up with lockdowns — many companies have adapted to “zero Covid.” Supply chain bottlenecks have eased, with freight container rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast plummeting.
Understand the Protests in China
“Major companies are really back to normal operations as far as supply chains are concerned,” said Eric Zheng, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. “They’re more concerned about consumer sentiment — people are less willing to spend.”
Then there is the continuing specter of health crises caused by Covid. Reopening in the West tended to happen after most of the population had been vaccinated with booster shots and highly effective mRNA vaccines, had caught the virus, or both. But that is not true in China.
Less than 1 percent of the population has been infected with Covid, according to official data. Most of the population has been vaccinated, but only with China’s domestic vaccines, which use an older technology that has been found through testing in other countries to be less effective. People over 80, who are most at risk, have the lowest rate of vaccination.
Doctors in China predict that 80 or 90 percent of the country’s people could become infected in the coming weeks and months — a wave of illness that may make consumers reluctant to go out and spend money.
A Covid testing booth in Shanghai. Doctors in China predict that 80 or 90 percent of the country’s people could become infected in the coming weeks and months.
Credit...Qilai Shen for The New York Times
Many storefront businesses have closed, leaving fewer places for anyone to spend money anyway.
A few of China’s most famous shopping streets, like Nanjing Road in Shanghai, are still lined with the elegant plate glass window displays of international brands. But a short walk away, many of the storefronts are now boarded up — and in a sprawling mall across the Huangpu River, long rows of shops have already shut down.
Households in China also don’t have a lot of free cash to spend. The United States, Hong Kong and various European governments supported consumer spending during the first two years of the pandemic by sending out large checks or providing generous assistance to the unemployed. That helped many families build up their savings.
Not China. Except for a few small municipal programs, which distributed coupons for local spending, the Chinese government did not distribute supplemental payments to households. Beijing preferred instead to spend heavily on infrastructure construction and on industrial subsidies — policies that benefited Communist Party constituencies in local governments and state-owned companies.
China’s government pressured businesses not to lay off workers. But overtime hours disappeared, wiping out what is often half or more of a paycheck. And many companies stopped hiring. Youth unemployment is nearly 20 percent.
Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, called this week for more economic stimulus and a loose monetary policy, effectively telling the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, to keep injecting money into the financial system. That would make it easier for companies and home buyers to borrow. But corporate demand for loans has been weak, while a nationwide problem of insolvent property developers and unfinished apartments has pummeled home sales.
Chinese households have two-thirds or more of their savings tied up in real estate and fairly little in the stock market — an unusual allocation by international standards and making them less likely to profit from central bank stimulus the way many families in the United States did.
The bank deposits of Chinese families rose somewhat during the pandemic because they were spending less than usual, said Louise Loo, an economist in the Singapore office of Oxford Economics. But households deposited much of that money into higher-interest bank accounts that restrict withdrawals for months or even years, making it hard for families to spend more money even if they had the confidence to do so.
Living patterns for seniors are also different in China. That could further limit consumer spending in the months to come.
In Western countries and even in Hong Kong, many seniors live in nursing homes and other assisted-living arrangements, which limited visits during outbreaks of the virus. But multigenerational living is much more common in China. The presence of an older family member, often unvaccinated, is a formidable check on the ability of other family members to start dining out and spending money because of the potential for infection.
“It also means we might continue to see lockdowns in residential buildings,” said Ms. Loo.
One of the hardest-hit business sectors in China has been travel. Hotels have been practically empty as cities imposed stringent rules on intercity travel, forcing them to cut room rates in half or more to lure a few local residents for “staycations.” Domestic air and rail travel has fallen steeply, while international air travel has been almost completely shut down since March 2020.
It’s unclear when China might open its borders to international air travelers. A new policy on Wednesday to ease intercity movement may increase spending but also spread illness.
The Beijing municipal government has almost completely barred out-of-towners from visiting the city this autumn. Thousands of Beijing residents who left the city for family visits or work trips also found themselves unable to return. But despite that precaution, Beijing has experienced one of China’s largest surges in infections in recent weeks. The end to restrictions on intercity travel will allow residents of Beijing, one of China’s two most affluent cities, along with Shanghai, to spend money elsewhere, but at the risk of spreading Covid to other cities.
The issues facing the world’s second largest economy can be seen in the experience of business owner Gong Naimin. Mr. Gong has a small factory that makes Christmas tree ornaments in Yiwu, a hub for light manufacturing and export logistics a four-hour drive southwest from Shanghai. His sales have faltered as customers, dealing with harsh Covid restrictions, stayed away.
So he has been hiring fewer workers. That is one small ripple in a nationwide wave of unemployment that has hurt sales for many companies, since his workers are also other companies’ customers.
With Christmas arriving soon, “the prime time is over,” he said. “Domestic demand is weak, and it’s too late to sell to foreign markets.”
Li You and Joy Dong contributed research.
Keith Bradsher is the Beijing bureau chief for The Times. He previously served as bureau chief in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Detroit and as a Washington correspondent. He was part of a team that won a Pulitzer in 2013 for its coverage of Apple, and he was a Pulitzer finalist in 1998 for his coverage of the dangers of sport utility vehicles. @KeithBradsher
Saving Indonesia's Capital
A Simple but Genius Plan for Jakarta
Jakarta is sinking into the sea and suffers from terrible congestion and a trash problem. The Indonesian government is building a new city in response. But one architect wants to save her home – and the idea could become a model for other cities threatened by the climate crisis.
By Maria Stöhr and Muhammad Fadli (Photos) in Jakarta
08.12.2022,
For our Global Societies project, reporters around the world will be writing about societal problems, sustainability and development in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe. The series will include features, analyses, photo essays, videos and podcasts looking behind the curtain of globalization. The project is generously funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Officially, 10 million people live here in Jakarta on the island of Java. If the outer districts are included, the population is closer to 20 to 30 million. But this place that so many call home, the capital of Indonesia, the main city in a country made up of tens of thousands of islands and a total population of 270 million, is struggling to survive. There are too many people, there's too much traffic, there's garbage everywhere, the air is polluted – and then there's the climate crisis on top of that, with rising sea levels and unpredictable rains.
Northern Jakarta
On an early Monday morning in October, deep-sea fishermen are returning to the large industrial port in the north of the city after six months at sea. The men get out of boats painted in red and blue, they are wearing rubber boots and gloves, and cigarettes hang from their mouths. They unload frozen tuna, barracuda, blue marlin and spearfish.
Jakarta is a city where people have always lived with and from the water, from fishing, as sellers of dried mackerel, as workers in the shipyards. But the Indonesian government took too long to realize that water long ago ceased to be merely a source of survival and now poses a serious threat to the city.
Jakarta is located in a delta and its topography is flat, with around 40 percent of its area located below sea level. In recent decades, the city has grown rapidly, with twice as many people living there now as in 1975 – and the infrastructure hasn't kept up: Drinking water and sewage systems don't reach large parts of the population. The majority has no running water and thus uses pumps to access groundwater. The result is that the soil, muddy and soft already, subsides by 10 to 15 centimeters a year. At the same time, climate change is causing sea levels to rise. Some are predicting that 95 percent of North Jakarta could be below sea level by 2050. Along with other megacities in Southeast Asia, including Bangkok, Singapore, Manila and Saigon, Jakarta is one of the fastest sinking cities in the world.
The concrete flood wall has been in place for several years, and it has been raised three times already. Dams, large pumps and retention basins are being built. But they provide little more than a temporary solution.
For this story, we visited some of those most affected by the flooding and the transformation of Jakarta. We also met with people who no longer want to hear the predictions of the demise of their city and have instead set out to seek solutions.
The destruction caused by the water is clearly visible in Muara Baru, one of the oldest parts of the city, located in the north. The ground there is subsiding by up to 20 centimeters a year, and it is visible to the naked eye when walking through the streets and alleyways. Older buildings are now often more than a meter lower than newer buildings, with stairs leading down to their front doors. What was once the first floor has slid down into the earth to become a basement level. Every year, when the rains come, the water here is up to two meters deep in the apartments, with the most recent flooding hitting the area in early November. Because of the constant threat of high water, many people place their refrigerators and electrical appliances on stools, boards or small tables to keep them safe.
Jakarta is crisscrossed by more than 15 rivers and canals. The shacks of the poorest city residents are located directly on the rivers - and they are the first to be hit when waters rise.
Irma, 65, lives together with her daughter Ita, 36, in the Poncol neighborhood. Irma bought land directly on the Krukut River 15 years ago. At the time, she was aware that it would be prone to flooding. "But I couldn't afford anything else," she says. The neighborhood, with its narrow, trash-filled of alleyways - a place where monitor lizards and cats fight over scraps of food - is located directly across the river from the expensive Marriott Hotel.
The impoverished and the rich live in close proximity, but with one big difference: Modern buildings are much better protected from the floods.
Irma and Ita run an outdoor kiosk stand, where they sell spinach fried in oil and tempeh. Gado-gado, an Indonesian vegetable salad, costs 15,000 Indonesian rupiah, or about one euro. They sell their wares across to the other side of the river with the use of a rope hoist.
A severe flood struck in 2007, Ita recalls. In 2010, the water was two and a half meters high. It was also bad in 2021. In the past, the women say, the great flood came every five years. Now, one comes almost every year, sometimes two.
"We try to move all the electrical equipment to the second floor in time. But sometimes the flooding is faster. Then things get destroyed. Once, the water carried away a toddler, but luckily he survived."
"Afterward, we spend days shoveling the mud out of the apartment. The walls of the apartment are damp for weeks. The stench is terrible. We then often have diarrhea and skin rashes for two weeks."
There's a word that often comes up when you talk to the residents of Jakarta: Adaptation. "We have adapted," says Irma. "We're not leaving. Where else are we going to go?" A few kilometers from here, on the city's Ciliwung River, Augustine, 24, has her newborn baby in her arms. "We'll take it as it comes," she says. "If our home were dry, it would tend to confuse us, we've gotten so used to it."
The Ciliwung River carries water from the mountainous regions of Java. But rising sea levels are making it harder for water to drain into the sea and is causing it to back up in Jakarta. And into the huts on the banks of the river. Into Augustine's apartment.
The government has been threatening for years to demolish Augustine's home and to relocate residents to apartments on the outskirts of the city. Augustine doesn't want to move, despite the floods. She fears she won't be able to find any work on the outskirts, that she will be cut off. Not knowing when the government will send the excavators, Augustine lives in uncertainty.
"We used to wash our clothes in the river and drink the water," Augustine says. Now, the water is too dirty. We now only use it for fishing. The air is also bad. The city used to seem healthier to me."
Augustine isn't wrong: Jakarta's waters are polluted with feces and trash – everything is discarded into the water. Fishermen talk about how they used to go out with their small boats off the coast and come back every day with a catch of 20 kilos. Now, they say, they only catch three kilos on a good day.
And the problems don't stop with the water. The city is experiencing explosive growth and the traffic is highly congested, with around half the population commuting downtown to work each day. Many spend three or four hours a day in the car. Because of the traffic jams, some commuters have to start their journey in the middle of the night to make it to work on time. Expansion of the public transport system is underway, but the network is still so patchy that most people can't do without their cars.
This is also reflected in the poor air quality in the city. In June, Jakarta was ranked as having some of the worst air pollution in the world. Pollutant levels that cause asthma and skin diseases were 27 times greater in June than the limits set by the World Health Organization. In a landmark ruling last year, a Jakarta court ruled that the government was denying its citizens the right to clean air.
At what point does a city become uninhabitable? At what point do you have to leave?
"The burden on everyone who lives in Jakarta is high," says Sidik Purnomo, the spokesman for the New Capital Authority, the agency responsible for implementing an insane project: the construction of a new capital city.
Plans for the project have been on the drawing board for decades, but it is Joko Widodo, the current president, who has decided to take on the challenge. Nusantara is to be the name of the city, which will have 1.5 million inhabitants and will be located on the neighboring island of Borneo, where, unlike Jakarta, there are no earthquakes or floods.
Currently, heavy machinery is clearing managed forests on the island, though construction is lagging behind schedule. Still, Widodo has announced that the government will move in 2024, at which point Nusantara's city center should be completed.
In a café in Jakarta, Purnoma talks about renewable energies, particularly solar and wind technology, from which electricity will be drawn in Nusantara in the future. About sustainability and green parks. About how everything in the city should be accessible in 10 minutes by public transport. It sounds a bit like redemption from the unwieldy behemoth that Jakarta has become.
Critics argue that nature is being destroyed to build the city. They say the government is having trouble financing the construction, especially now, in times of crises and a decline in the currency exchange rate. They argue that President Widodo is just trying to create a monument for his legacy.
"Building a new capital doesn't do anything for the current capital city," says Elisa Sutanudjaja, an architect in Jakarta who criticizes the project for being elitist, saying that most of Jakarta's residents wouldn't move to the new city. "They will stay here. The government should be putting money in their hands." Initially, only around 200,000 people are expected to move to Nusantara. Given that an estimated 20 million people currently live in Jakarta, that would be only 1 percent of the population.
Sutanudjaja is one of the people who have no intention of leaving their home city. "We have to find creative solutions and adapt to the new realities," she says. There it is again: adapt.
It is Sutanudjaja's view that if you want to save the city, you have to start with the people who are most vulnerable to disasters. "These are the poor in the city," she says. The architect has demonstrated how this can be done with a housing project. In 2016, authorities cleared the Akuarium neighborhood in northern Jakarta and the residents were evicted to the outskirts of the city, where they were offered social housing. They reasoned that the old neighborhood had been too badly ravaged by flooding and that the shacks there had been built illegally.
But, the architect explains, people who have lived all their lives in tiny, single-story houses, people who are used to strong community structures in the heart of the city are going to have trouble adapting to isolated high-rise apartments that are lacking in communal spaces.
The architect protested together with local residents in front of the Presidential Palace against the evictions. She also presented a counterproposal: Together with the people affected, she planned apartment blocks, four stories each, with a total of 241 apartments. And they were to be located right at the location they were being evicted from – their old quarter.
"Yes, in the end, we also ended up building high-rise apartments," says Sutanudjaja. "But the difference was that we sat down together with the residents. We explained to them that their shacks wouldn't be good places to live in the future because of the floods." She says she had to use language that people understand to describe climate change and the effect it has on their lives. Because few people here are aware of why the water is rising ever higher.
The buildings are built to withstand the floods and are built above flood levels. And they are organized communally, modeled on life in the old neighborhood. There are wide hallways where people can meet. One person has set up a kiosk shop in front of his apartment. Two mothers are sitting in front of their apartments with their children. There is a laundry facility for all residents on the ground floor as well as meeting rooms and a library. The construction costs were around $4 million, financed by a fund of real estate companies and foundations.
Everyone in the building has responsibilities for cleaning the communal areas. Sutanudjaja calls it the "vertical village." The residents are organized in a cooperative. They pay a small rent equivalent to about 10 euros a month, part of which goes to reserves to repair future flood damage to the buildings.
"Politicians need to understand that they can't make decisions over people's heads. Simply moving people somewhere else against their will won't work," says Sutanudjaja. "Jakarta, the neighborhoods, the quarters, it's all their city. They're at home here."
Video: Muhammad Fadli / DER SPIEGEL
If you ask Sutanudjaja if that can really exist – a future for Jakarta – she raises her voice. "The people in Jakarta aren't victims," she says. "They are resilient, adaptable and they learn."
Then she adds that the things that work with her small-scale housing project are also possible in Jakarta on a larger scale. And in other places around the world. She says people have to be told in clear language what they are facing as a result of the climate crisis. They need to be pulled into dialogue. What do we do about it? What can we still prevent? And where do we need to respond? After that, people can get to work on a solution.
This piece is part of the Global Societies series. The project runs for three years and is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
News round-up, Tuesday, December 06, 2022.
Russian oil sanctions: Maintaining the fragile balance between determination and practicality
Editorial. Le Monde
China’s Xi to Visit Saudi Arabia for Regional Summits
Xi Jinping is expected to sign a flurry of contracts with the Saudis and other Gulf States, highlighting Beijing’s growing clout in the region when Washington has pulled away.
NYT
The Stain of Toxic MasculinityOne Man's Crusade against Machismo in Latin America
Spiegel
Image Germán & Co.
“La Cárcel Distrital prison in Bogotá is home to murders, drug bosses and sexual criminals.”
AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…
Editor's Pick:
Russian oil sanctions: Maintaining the fragile balance between determination and practicality
Editorial
Le Monde
For the EU, there is a fine line between its desire to hasten the end of Russia's war in Ukraine and its desire to cushion the effects of the energy crisis. Published on December 6, 2022
The sanctions put in place by the West against Russia to make it give in to Ukraine are becoming a little more sophisticated. Since Monday, December 5, no ship carrying Russian crude oil will be able to unload its cargo in a port of the European Union or of one of the seven most industrialized countries (G7). This measure is in addition to the decision taken three days earlier to cap the price of a barrel from Russia for countries that do not apply the Western embargo. Then, on February 5, 2023, the embargo will affect refined products. Almost a year after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's ability to finance its war effort has never been so constrained.
After the embargo on coal came into effect in August and the cessation of almost all gas deliveries to Europe over the summer by Russia's own hand, oil is still the main source of foreign currency available to Vladimir Putin to continue his mad and murderous aggression against Ukraine. The sanctions that have now been imposed are an important lever to dry up this income source.
The integrity of the embargo is far from absolute. It is neither possible nor desirable. It is not possible because large oil importers such as India, China and Turkey, which did not vote for the package of sanctions against Moscow, have conveniently substituted themselves against the collapse of European demand.
Moreover, the West has no interest in destabilizing world production. Without any more Russian oil, its prices would explode, causing enormous damage to the G7 economies. Setting a ceiling price for Russian exports both ensures a certain stability in the market and forces Russia to sell its oil at a discount in order to reduce its budgetary revenues and its military effort.
But beyond the economic effects, this new phase for Western sanctions sends a political message to Vladimir Putin. Since the beginning of the war, the Russian president has been betting on the softness of the Western reaction and its loss of steam over time. A bad calculation. Despite the complexity of implementing the sanctions, despite the efforts they require by Europeans to wean themselves off Russian fossil fuels, despite the impact on inflation and their daily lives, and finally despite the dissensions that are occasionally fueled by untimely statements such as the "security guarantees" that Emmanuel Macron believes should be offered to Russia, the determination and solidarity of the West have not wavered.
For months, Vladimir Putin's regime has used propaganda to hammer home the point that sanctions do not work and that they penalize their enforcers more than Russia. The more time passes, the more this narrative disintegrates. The acceleration of the economic crisis in Russia and the military stalemate in which its army finds itself are proof of this. At the same time, the EU, thanks to the diversification of its supplies, is succeeding in doing without Russian oil and gas at a speed that was hardly imaginable only a few months ago.
But it is not yet fast enough in the opinion of Ukraine, which is legitimately calling for even more radical measures. But for the EU, there is a fine line between its desire to hasten the end of the war and its desire to cushion the effects of an energy crisis that threatens to turn into an economic and social crisis. The only strategy for Europe is to maintain the fragile balance between determination and practicality.
China’s Xi to Visit Saudi Arabia for Regional Summits
Xi Jinping is expected to sign a flurry of contracts with the Saudis and other Gulf States, highlighting Beijing’s growing clout in the region when Washington has pulled away.
President Xi Jinping of China at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. He is expected to visit Saudi Arabia for three days.Credit...Mark R Cristino/EPA, via Shutterstock
By Vivian Nereim and David Pierson
Dec. 6, 2022
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — China’s leader will travel to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday for a flurry of summits bringing together heads of state from across the Middle East, a region where longtime American allies are growing increasingly closer to China.
The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, will visit the kingdom for three days and attend Saudi-China, Gulf-China and Arab-China summits, the Saudi state news agency reported on Tuesday. More than 30 heads of states and leaders of international organizations plan to attend, the report said, adding that Saudi Arabia and China were expected to sign a “strategic partnership.”
Mr. Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia is aimed at deepening China’s decades-old ties with the Gulf region, which started narrowly as a bid to secure oil, and have since developed into a complex relationship involving arms sales, technology transfers and infrastructure projects.
The Chinese leader is expected to sign a flurry of contracts with the Saudi government and other Gulf States, sending a message that Beijing’s clout in the region is growing at a time when Washington has pulled away from the Middle East to devote more attention to Asia.
The grand state visit will inevitably draw comparisons to Donald J. Trump’s arrival in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, for his first trip abroad as president in 2017. He was greeted by streets decorated with American flags and an enormous image of his face projected on the side of a building.
Saudi Arabia has been a close American ally for more than half a century. But its authoritarian rulers have long sought to deepen other alliances to prepare for an emerging multipolar world.
U.S.-Saudi ties have been especially fractious over the past few years, with the administration of President Biden declaring a “recalibration” of the relationship and pressing the kingdom over human rights violations, including the 2018 murder of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi — a Saudi citizen and U.S. resident at the time — by Saudi agents in Istanbul.
“Xi clearly wants to make a statement at a moment at which the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia is strained,” said James Dorsey, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“It’s a good moment to replant the flag, if you wish. And I think it’s a good moment for the Gulf States to say, ‘Hey, we have other options. Washington, you’re not the only ones out there.’”
The Stain of Toxic MasculinityOne Man's Crusade against Machismo in Latin America
Machismo is widespread in Latin America. Bogotás undersecretary for culture would like to change that and redefine what it means to be a man. He has developed a program for teaching men to cook, change diapers and talk about their feelings.
By Nicola Abé in Bogotá
For our Global Societies project, reporters around the world will be writing about societal problems, sustainability and development in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe. The series will include features, analyses, photo essays, videos and podcasts looking behind the curtain of globalization. The project is generously funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The boys would lie in wait for him after school, usually in a small park. They would gather in a circle, trapping Henry in the middle. "Fight, you coward," they would say, before forcing him, the gentlest of the group, to strike first. If he refused, the group would pummel him. He was 11 at the time. Because it happened over and over again, his older brother finally sent Henry to take karate and taekwondo classes. "From then on, I would win the fights," he says in a quiet voice. "But when I got home, I would cry."
Henry Murrain, 45, is sitting with tears in his eyes in his coffeeshop in Bogotá on a rainy Wednesday. "It isn’t easy to be a child in Latin America," he says. A black man growing up in a white city, someone who was always different from the others, and not just because of the color of his skin. But he is also someone who has made it far in life, becoming the undersecretary of culture for the city – and he has big plans. His mission is nothing less than a cultural shift. But his opponent is not one that can be beaten into submission. His opponent is machismo itself.
Machismo, which he views as a kind of cage imprisoning all of society, is a poison that paralyzes the population, regardless of gender or social standing, and also costs lives. It is a deeply ingrained attitude that has long since been identified as a problem in Latin America, but there have been few attempts to change it – this narrative of the powerful, autonomous man who never cries and isn’t allowed any feelings aside from aggression and sexual desires. The rigid gender roles and societal expectations, says Murrain, don’t just lead to psychological suffering, but also to violence.
The bullying he experienced as a child at school never entirely left him. Because he wanted to learn more about what causes it, he set out to redefine the age-old question: What makes a man a man? He began researching machismo, initially working for an NGO before joining the city administration of Bogotá. It is a city, he says, that has made significant progress over the past decades, including a rapidly sinking murder rate, fewer traffic accidents and more environmental protections. "The only area where there have been no improvements is that of gender-based violence," Murrain says. And he is convinced he has figured out why: "We have never actually worked with men. It’s really quite absurd."
Murrain has set out to change that. First, he established Linea Calma, a hotline that men can call when they are on the verge of beating their wives. He then came up with the idea of Hombres al Cuidado, a kind of school for care work. In four modules of 10 hours each, men learn a number of skills that are widely considered to be unmanly in Colombian society: how to change diapers, cleaning skills, how to recognize feelings and talk about them, how to treat women with respect or deal with childlike rage without lashing out. And participants, when they are doing things like cooking, should "reflect on their masculinity."
Henry Murrain and his team have identified particularly "masculine places" for their lessons, which are financed by the city: male dominated companies, universities, a bus terminal. His staff also drive around in a school bus to promote the program, heading to places like soccer stadiums and favelas. They also go to La Cárcel Distrital prison in Bogotá. Murrain says that including inmates was important to him. "Machismo and criminality are linked. Crime is a manifestation of machismo. Fearlessness, breaking rules and crossing lines are widely seen as male attributes – as sexy, strong and cool."
La Cárcel Distrital prison in Bogotá is home to murders, drug bosses and sexual criminals.
La Cárcel Distrital is a vast brick building on the eastern edge of the city, overlooked by guard towers. Visitors must submit to a number of security checks, including being sniffed by guard dogs, before finally being asked to don a gigantic, full-body black suit. Telephones and scarves are not allowed.
The air inside the building is stale. In the labyrinth of security gates, stairs and hallways poorly lit by energy-efficient tube lighting, it doesn’t take long to lose one’s orientation. The place is home to murderers, drug bosses and bank robbers, but most of the 1,200 prisoners are here for sexual offenses. The prison is less overcrowded than others in the city, which sometimes hit the headlines for bloody uprisings or because the sewage pipes have again become clogged with dismembered body parts.
Nurse Christina Bulla, 38, comes here to the prison library twice a week to teach men in bright orange shirts about concepts like selfcare and mindfulness. She hands out pastel-colored notepads on which the prisoners are to draw pregnant women, or she’ll bring along a baby doll so they can practice dressing it.
Luiz Rey, 32, a man with delicate facial features and a vacant expression in his eyes, is sitting off to the side, his legs nervously bouncing up and down. He has been here since March, and he has another four years to go.
Rey has two children, aged four and six. "I was a terrible father, I behaved poorly." And that, he says, despite a rather promising start. He held down a reliable job at a cleaning company and had a regular income. But then he started taking drugs and cheating on his wife, he says, often not coming home for several days at a time. When they split up, he says, he completely lost it. "I loved her so much," he says. He was drunk and he stabbed a man – "just an impulse," he says, as he jams the tip of a pencil into his chest.
He has three numbers in Roman numerals tattooed on his arm – the day he met his wife, the day his daughter was born and his son’s birthday. On Sunday, the three of them are planning to come for a visit. Of course, he would like to get back together with the love of his life, he says, but he thinks it’s too late. He doesn’t have great faith in his own ability to rehabilitate, and also says that four years is a long time. "I don’t trust her." He thinks she may have found someone else. "I can sense it."
Henry Murrain lets out a sigh over his glass of orange juice. Machismo, he says, leads to a situation in which men are unable to regulate their emotions. From a young age, they aren’t allowed to show sadness, fear and weakness, all of it is suppressed, he says. Which also means that they haven’t been able to learn any tools for dealing with such feelings. "They frequently aren’t able to handle the extreme pain that comes with losing a loving relationship."
Murrain began his career by interviewing men in prison who had murdered their wives. "I found it to be symptomatic that none of them tried to defend what they did. They all said that they didn’t know what had happened to them.” Because these men were overwhelmed by their emotions, Murrain says, they had destroyed their families and their own lives.
"We have to change the narrative,” says Murrain. In an effort to do so, he initiated the production of a fictional mini-series that is shown on social media channels or in public places. It shines the spotlight on problematic behavior and also includes information that help is available for men in such situations, such as by calling the Linea Calma.
One of the films is playing one afternoon in the La Cárcel Distrital prison in Bogotá. Its focus is on jealousy and on the misguided notion that the body of a woman belongs to her husband. Murrain’s studies have found that jealousy is the most common reason for men beating their wives or girlfriends – whether they are 18 years old or 65.
On screen is a young man lying in bed with his girlfriend. As evening falls, she wants to leave the apartment, but realizes that the door has been locked. Her boyfriend is suspicious that she intends to go out to meet other men. She starts crying and begs him to allow her to leave. But he has hidden the key in a shoe and keeps her captive.
One of the inmates, an older man, says: "Oh God, I was that guy for 20 years." He says he ruined his marriage.
A few minutes later, in the back of the library, he says: "The macho is the façade. Behind it hides a tormented, insecure child.” It is a sentence straight from Murrain, but which has found an echo here in this white-painted room with round skylights high up in the ceiling.
"Another five minutes," a loud voice calls out. A female prison guard is standing in the doorway in a black-and-gray camouflage suit, complete with a bullet-proof vest and a truncheon. It’s a quarter to four, and the men actually still have time. But just a few minutes later, a shout pierces the room: "We’re heading out," and the men have to return to their cells. The guard is considered to be particularly strict. Christina Bulla, the nurse, says she thinks it would make sense for the guards to also go through the training program, but they refused.
On the last day of the first module, called "How you as a man can take care of others," role playing is on the schedule. Bulla divides the men into small groups and hands out their assignments. One of them: Their 15-year-old daughter admits to her parents that she is pregnant. How does the family react?
Edwin Lozano, 52, a brawny man with bushy eyebrows, plays the father. "You’ve ruined everything!" he shouts at the daughter, being played by a young prisoner. "Even though I’ve stol… worked by whole life so that you’ll have it easier!" He then goes after the mother for not being strict enough during the girl’s upbringing.
In the discussion that follows, he is fully aware that his reaction wasn’t exactly optimal, that he should have remained calm, listened and led a constructive conversation. "The course is preparing me for real life with my grandchildren," says Lozano, who is in prison for seven robberies, though he insists he "knows nothing" about some of them. He says he is a truck driver and businessman and that he has four children, three of whom are already grown.
Lozano then begins talking about his childhood. He says there used to be a lot of violence in families, and that he was beaten by his mother. His father, he says, was strict and unemotional, and that he didn’t do any household chores. Sometimes, he says, he would help his mother wash the dishes, but his father ultimately banned him from doing so.
"Eighty percent of the men in Bogotá don’t have positive memories of their fathers," says Henry Murrain. "Those are painful numbers."
Murrain has completely different memories of his own father, who passed away just recently. He pulls his mobile phone out of his pocket and shows an old photo. It is of a man with dark, curly hair embracing a seven-year-old Henry on his lap, cheek to cheek. "My father was loving and tender. At home, we would kiss each other and say that we loved each other," he says, his eyes again moistening. "They used to laugh at me at school because I would also tell my friends that I loved them."
His father, he says, was a sailor and saw a lot of the world, getting to know many foreign cultures. Perhaps that is why he was different?
“A majority of men in macho societies miss out on the opportunity to experience a wonderful, deeply human encounter: bathing a baby, reading a story to a small child.”
Henry Murrain
Today, Murrain himself is the father of two young children. He is divorced and lives together with his new partner, with the children alternating between him and his mother from week to week. He enjoys cooking. Nothing, he says, makes him happier than preparing a ramen-noodle soup that his four-year-old son, otherwise not a huge eater, wolfs down.
There is an economic aspect to housework, but also an emotional one. Simply looking at care work through the lens of the economy, he believes, is too shortsighted. "It isn’t just a burden – which mostly falls on women’s shoulders – it is also enjoyable," he says. "A majority of men in macho societies miss out on the opportunity to experience a wonderful, deeply human encounter: bathing a baby, reading a story to a small child."
Murrain, who also has a degree in philosophy, doesn’t believe in the modern-day narrative of a rational homo economicus. He sees humans as emotional, interdependent beings. Care work, which is about connections with others, is one expression of that, he says, making it a foundation of humanity. But machismo, which essentially rejects men as a complete humans, he says, leads to a situation in which men can neither recognize their own needs nor those of others.
And precisely for that reason, Murrain is convinced that other men need the experience of care work as a kind of healing.
But can a few hours of drawing and group discussions really achieve anything, particularly with hardened criminals? Of course it’s not ideal, he says, but he has to work within the boundaries of what is possible. The prison is likely the space within which Murrain’s anti-machismo concept will encounter its most challenging reality check.
At the end of the first module of the training course, the prisoners in their bright orange shirts must fill out a questionnaire before returning to their cells. Nurse Bulla collects the sheets of paper, quickly scans one of them, rolls her eyes and shakes her head. After the three-week course, one participant again checked the box indicating that caring for babies is a woman’s job. "Men aren’t able to change diapers."
This piece is part of the Global Societies series. The project runs for three years and is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
News round-up, Friday, December 02, 2022.
According to the European Commission, the International Criminal Court in The Hague does not have the right to prosecute Russia for its 'crime of aggression.' (Le Monde)Le Monde
“As the depth of winter approaches, Europeans are increasingly worried about their ability to heat homes and power factories. Although natural gas storage levels are nearly full and prices have eased, the European gas price is still four to five times higher than average in recent years — and President Vladimir Putin of Russia has just threatened to cut what little Russian gas still flows to Europe.”
- NYT
Image Germán & Co.
“According to the European Commission, the International Criminal Court in The Hague does not have the right to prosecute Russia for its ‘crime of aggression.”
AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest
“As the depth of winter approaches, Europeans are increasingly worried about their ability to heat homes and power factories. Although natural gas storage levels are nearly full and prices have eased, the European gas price is still four to five times higher than average in recent years — and President Vladimir Putin of Russia has just threatened to cut what little Russian gas still flows to Europe.”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…
Editor's Pick:
Europe Is Wrong to Blame the U.S. for Its Energy Problems
Dec. 2, 2022
NYT
By Jason Bordoff
Mr. Bordoff is the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, a former senior director on the staff of the U.S. National Security Council and a former special assistant to President Barack Obama.
As the depth of winter approaches, Europeans are increasingly worried about their ability to heat homes and power factories. Although natural gas storage levels are nearly full and prices have eased, the European gas price is still four to five times higher than average in recent years — and President Vladimir Putin of Russia has just threatened to cut what little Russian gas still flows to Europe.
Despite the economic pain and Mr. Putin’s best efforts, the West has remained largely united in confronting his aggression in Ukraine. Yet fissures are now beginning to show in the trans-Atlantic alliance as European leaders — especially President Emmanuel Macron of France, who has been visiting Washington this week — blame U.S. energy and climate policy for worsening their energy predicament. These attacks are not only misguided but also risk aiding Mr. Putin in his conquest of Ukraine.
In recent remarks to French business leaders, Mr. Macron complained about the cost of U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas and “massive state aid schemes,” referring to the clean energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act. “I think it is not friendly,” he said.
Other European leaders have joined in, using inflammatory rhetoric to blame three aspects of U.S. policy.
Some European officials have accused U.S. companies of war profiteering for selling relatively inexpensive U.S. natural gas at much higher prices in Europe. These accusations are baseless. American liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., is sold in Europe at a price set by the market. While that price is more than five times the U.S. natural gas price today, most of that L.N.G. is sold to middlemen, usually at the U.S. price plus some markup. Those middlemen, not U.S. export companies, benefit when the overseas gas price is much higher. Most of these resellers are not American. The largest are European companies — TotalEnergies and Shell.
A changing climate, a changing world
Climate change around the world: In “Postcards From a World on Fire,” 193 stories from individual countries show how climate change is reshaping reality everywhere, from dying coral reefs in Fiji to disappearing oases in Morocco and far, far beyond.
The role of our leaders: Writing at the end of 2020, Al Gore, the 45th vice president of the United States, found reasons for optimism in the Biden presidency, a feeling perhaps borne out by the passing of major climate legislation. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been criticisms. For example, Charles Harvey and Kurt House argue that subsidies for climate capture technology will ultimately be a waste.
The worst climate risks, mapped: In this feature, select a country, and we'll break down the climate hazards it faces. In the case of America, our maps, developed with experts, show where extreme heat is causing the most deaths.
What people can do: Justin Gillis and Hal Harvey describe the types of local activism that might be needed, while Saul Griffith points to how Australia shows the way on rooftop solar. Meanwhile, small changes at the office might be one good way to cut significant emissions, writes Carlos Gamarra.
European attacks on the United States are particularly perplexing given that American L.N.G. has played such a pivotal role in helping Europe replace gas from Russia, which had supplied around 40 percent of Europe’s imports before the war. Indeed, many European leaders questioned America’s opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would have further increased that dependence on Russian energy. The United States not only was the largest L.N.G. exporter in the world in the first half of 2022 but also supplied more than three-quarters of the European Union’s additional needs in the first half of the year. Unlike most other L.N.G. suppliers from other countries, whose contracts restrict where the liquefied natural gas can be sold, the vast majority of contracts for gas from the United States have no constraints on their destination, and thus most of those L.N.G. cargoes were diverted to Europe to help with the crisis.
Several European leaders have also criticized the very large clean energy subsidies in the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act. “Nobody wants to get into a tit-for-tat or subsidy race,” the Irish trade minister, Leo Varadkar, said recently. “But what the U.S. has done really isn’t consistent with the principles of free trade and fair competition.”
The new law does have implications for Europe. It will, for instance, make it cheaper to produce low-carbon fuels, such as hydrogen and ammonia, in the United States than in nearly any other place, according to the consultancy BCG. Europeans are concerned this may encourage companies to shift investment plans to the United States or relocate energy-intensive industries, such as steel, to where the cheap low-carbon energy is.
It is understandable that Europeans are worried about a wave of deindustrialization. But the culprit is Europe’s lack of competitiveness without cheap Russian gas, not America’s new climate law. After years of criticizing the United States for being a laggard on climate action, it is puzzling to see European leaders condemning the country for investing too much in clean energy. America’s new climate mandates can begin a cycle of competition in clean energy technologies that accelerate decarbonization rather than lead to protectionist policies that retard it.
Finally, European leaders fear the Inflation Reduction Act will disadvantage European companies. To qualify for the tax incentives, clean energy products often must be made in the United States or, in some cases, neighboring or ally nations. For example, the new climate law requires that electric vehicles be assembled in North America to qualify for the subsidies and that their batteries be made from an increasing percentage of components mined or processed in the United States or its free-trade partners. The European Union is not one of those partners.
Europeans are right to express concerns about protectionism. Industrial policy is back in vogue, and the Inflation Reduction Act is the latest action in a growing trend aimed at boosting domestic industries, creating jobs and securing supply chains — something the European Green Deal does too. China’s own protectionism and use of its industries for geopolitical influence have made Western governments favor trade with allies — so-called friend-shoring.
Yet Europe’s current energy crisis has nothing to do with the new U.S. clean energy subsidies. Moreover, the provisions Europeans find objectionable are far from universal; for example, commercial vehicles, such as delivery vans and trucks, have no domestic manufacturing requirements to receive subsidies. Still, U.S. officials should use what discretion they have in putting the law into effect and in trade negotiations to allay potential harms to Europe and other allies such as South Korea and Japan.
With deft trade diplomacy, the Inflation Reduction Act’s sweeping new climate provisions should create more opportunities for cooperation with the European Union than it creates risks to the trans-Atlantic relationship. For example, U.S. and E.U. officials can leverage strong climate action on both sides of the Atlantic to carry out a recent agreement to restrict steel and aluminum imports, notably from China, that do not meet certain emission standards and work together to create preferential trade terms for countries that do meet such standards or impose a carbon fee on imports that don’t.
Diplomacy was underway Thursday in a meeting between President Biden and Mr. Macron. The French president spoke of the need to “resynchronize” his nation’s economic partnership with the United States to “succeed together.” Mr. Biden said he makes “no apologies” for the Inflation Reduction Act but also acknowledged the law had “glitches” and said, “There’s a lot we can work out.”
This is a positive step. Trans-Atlantic cooperation will be required more than ever to accelerate the shift to clean energy and secure those new supply chains. It is also what’s required to hold firm against Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. European leaders should tone down the rhetoric and work with their U.S. counterparts on collaborative approaches to accelerate climate action, enhance energy security and help Europe cope with its energy crisis.
Jason Bordoff (@JasonBordoff) is the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, a former senior director on the staff of the U.S. National Security Council and a former special assistant to President Barack Obama.
EU seeks special court to try Putin, Russian officials over Ukraine war
According to the European Commission, the International Criminal Court in The Hague does not have the right to prosecute Russia for its 'crime of aggression.'
By Philippe Jacqué (Brussels (Belgium) correpondent) and Stéphanie Maupas (La Haye (Netherlands), correspondent) Published on December 1, 2022
Anton Korynevych (right), the Crimean representative for the President of Ukraine, and Oksana Zolotaryova, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry official, discuss the International Court of Justice’s verdict of the war in Ukraine, in The Hague, Netherlands, March 16, 2022. PHIL NIJHUIS / AFP
Would it be appropriate to create a special tribunal to judge the crime committed by the Russian leadership in Ukraine? Since the beginning of its invasion on February 24, debate has been raging over whether Russia should be tried. As of Wednesday, November 30, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, formally decided her position. She proposed the creation of such a tribunal.
Kyiv has requested that the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigate and prosecute those responsible for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed on Ukrainian territory since March 2. The first arrest warrants could be issued by the end of the year in the partly occupied country.
"While continuing to support the International Criminal Court, we propose setting up a special UN-backed tribunal to investigate and prosecute Russiaʼs crimes of aggression against Ukraine," Ms. von der Leyen said on Twitter on Wednesday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for the establishment of such a tribunal alongside a reparation measure in response to the crimes in Bucha in early April. In Ukraine on Wednesday, Andrii Yermak, his chief of staff, welcomed the decision, reacting on Telegram. "It’s inevitable that Russia will pay for its crimes and destruction," he said. Ukrainians have been campaigning hard to convince governments for several months.
'The question of personal immunity'
The ICC’s lawyers believe they cannot prosecute Russian leadership over the crime of aggression, as outlined in a long-awaited legal study issued in Kyiv on Wednesday. Ten years ago, the member states severely limited the powers of this Court, imposing numerous conditions on its prosecutor in order to prosecute this specific crime. In its review, the Commission emphasized the "highly political nature" of aggression, which criminalizes the use of force. It is feared that a precedent may be set by this special tribunal project in London, Paris, and Washington, which are of the opinion that certain wars are "just."
According to the Commission, the ICC cannot prosecute Vladimir Putin for war crimes or crimes against humanity because Moscow hasn’t joined the court, and therefore the Russian leader and some of his ministers remain immune. But among legal experts, the issue is still up for debate. In contrast, others believe that since the crimes were committed in the territory of a member state, Ukraine, which referred the case to the Court, the immunity of the perpetrators should be lifted.
Julian Fernandez, professor of International Law at Pantheon-Assas University, explains that it's his belief that Vladimir Putin cannot be prosecuted by the ICC. "An ad hoc or hybrid international tribunal won't remove the legal obstacles to the prosecution of Russian leaders and, most importantly, the issue of personal immunity. The stroke of a pen cannot erase a central rule of general international law. The United Nations Security Council would be the only one empowered to take such action," he said.
'Broad support from the international community' is needed
Ukrainian and international lawyers have been working on different scenarios to create this tribunal for months. For its part, the Commission has two approaches in mind. One option would be a hybrid tribunal, created under an agreement between Kyiv and a multinational organization, such as the EU or the Council of Europe, with a mix of national and international judges. According to the Commission, "An ad hoc tribunal would allow for the prosecution of senior Russian officials who would otherwise enjoy immunity."
The Commission warned the tribunal will only gain legitimacy if it has "very broad and strong support from the international community," advocating filing a resolution in the United Nations Security Council. Even if Russia vetoes it, this first step would pave the way for a debate at the UN General Assembly. It’s true that some states argue that the situation in Ukraine has received too much attention, however, the results of the vote have not yet been determined.
Officials from the Commission said that they have spoken with the United States – which isn’t part of the ICC – about this issue, but there were no indications of support from Washington.
If it proceeds, the proposed crime of aggression tribunal will take time to implement. Until then, the Netherlands has said that it will host an interim office in The Hague, staffed by Ukrainian prosecutors, to investigate Russian aggression. In a resolution adopted on November 14, the UN General Assembly recommended adding this jurisdiction to a "register," which hasn't been created yet. The system would allow for state and private complaints to be registered for future reparations.
Philippe Jacqué(Brussels (Belgium) correpondent) and Stéphanie Maupas(La Haye (Netherlands), correspondent)
A Year with Ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel "You're Done with Power Politics"
After 16 years as Germany's political leader, she realized that it was time for someone new. But one year after leaving office, Angela Merkel has yet to find closure – particularly as her legacy continues to look worse and worse. DER SPIEGEL visited her to learn more about her present and her plans for the future.
01.12.2022
Her new office looks a lot like her old one, just smaller. It feels a bit like a doll house built especially for Angela Merkel so that she – after 16 years in the Chancellery – doesn’t feel so alien in the austere administrative building at the Brandenburg Gate. The Adenauer painting from Oskar Kokoschka is again hanging behind her desk, but it looks quite a bit bigger because the ceiling is so much lower. The four chess figures that made it over here from the Chancellery also seem to have grown larger. She cut a branch from the Adansonia tree in her old office and has placed it in the window. There are the flags and the sculpture of Kairos, from the Rostock artist Thomas Jastram, standing here in a completely new context, just like Merkel herself. Kairos is a Greek god, the personification of favorable moments. He has long held his protective hand over her.
Nach 16 Jahren im Kanzleramt zog sich Angela Merkel im Dezember 2021 aus der Politik zurück. Für viele Menschen verließ sie das Amt als Heldin. Inzwischen gilt sie auch wegen ihrer Ukrainepolitik als Schuldige, im Berliner Machtapparat spielt sie keine Rolle mehr. Porträt einer Frau, die mit ihrem Erbe ringt.
This used to be the office of ex-Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Before that, back when the Berlin Wall still ran by outside the window, it was used by East German National Education Minister Margot Honecker. When Merkel heard about this for the first time, her reported response was: "Oh, shit."
She was still chancellor at the time, but likely had a foreboding that such historical baggage could weigh heavy.
Almost exactly a year ago, Angela Merkel left the Chancellery as a heroine of the free world. The last images of her as Germany’s leader showed a woman in a heavy overcoat against the icy cold at the Bendlerblock – the Defense Ministry in Berlin where Claus von Stauffenberg and his accomplices were hanged following their unsuccessful attempt to assassinate Adolf Hitler – listening to the German military band playing a folk-pop song by Nina Hagen, who is from East Berlin, though left for the West and even became famous as a punk singer in New York. A song from Hildegard Knef followed, a singer who injected a bit of rebelliousness into stolid postwar Germany.
They were the song requests of a confident German woman. The first to ever hold the office, the first eastern German, the first scientist. The polar opposite of the populists and machos of this world.
Surprisingly Unchanged
German public broadcasters televised the entire farewell ceremony. And just like with global stars, viewers found themselves wondering: Is she crying, or is it just the cold?
Angela Merkel’s successor was Olaf Scholz, a small, rather stiff man from the German Social Democrats. He wears dark, slim-fit suits and the Germans initially hoped that he would just continue on as she had. But one year later, the world is a different place. Russia has invaded Ukraine, natural gas and gasoline are expensive and Germany is afraid of what might happen this winter. Her successor has deprived her of her legacy. Once a shining example of leadership acumen, Merkel now appears to bear no small share of the blame; she has transformed from crisis manager to crisis maker.
It is surprising just how unchanged she looks. How uncontrite. She seems so relaxed, its almost as if no bad news finds its way here into her doll house. On a chair at the window sits Beate Baumann, seemingly also part of the office furnishings. She has been Merkel’s office manager for decades, following her from position to position, and she was an important part of Merkel’s tenure as chancellor. The two women are now writing the chancellor’s political memoirs together.
Merkel takes a seat on a black sofa and elevates her leg, propping herself up with a bright-red heart pillow that has also been brought over from the Chancellery. During a summer trip to Salzburg with her husband, she injured her knee in a restaurant. The place had reserved an exclusive room for the famous couple, and on the way there, she slipped on the wet floorboards. And tore her ACL.
"The Austrians are always so agitated when dealing with famous people," she says, a comment which almost suffices to turn the accident into an international affair.
For 16 years, everything that happened to her was somehow relevant. The unwanted neck massage given to her by an American president, her décolleté at an opera premier in Oslo, the selfie she took with a refugee, the uncontrollable shaking on display during a couple of appearances late in her tenure.
She was at the top of the list of the world’s most powerful women for 14 years. And when she starts talking about Xi Jinping’s unmoving facial expression, she seems statesmanlike even though her arm is resting on a red-satin pillow. Like everyone else, she was only watching on television as Hu Jintao was led away from the Communist Party Congress. But she knows Xi; she knows how to read him.
She also met the queen on several occasions, of course, and visited Windsor Castle last year on her parting visit. Did they talk about her legacy?
"She always asked questions," says Merkel. "And the type of questions certainly indicated what she was interested in."
In Buckingham Palace with Queen Elizabeth
One time when she arrived at Buckingham Palace, the queen was staring out of the window holding a cup of tea. Another time, Elizabeth II imitated the trotting of the palace horses. Angela Merkel giggles like a groupie. She watched the film "The Queen" with Helen Mirren and also, in her empty weeks after leaving the Chancellery, the Netflix series "The Crown." She also followed the long broadcast of her funeral on television. It seems as though she could talk about the queen forever.
Did she see herself in the queen?
Merkel looks up, that famous skepticism writ across her face. A trick question? She responds decisively: "No."
But she is fully aware that – aside from the horses – the small royal gestures could just as easily come from her own leadership profile. As could the description: Reliable, close to nature, a preference for sensible shoes, a bit cool, scornful, married to a quirky husband who got used to his role entertaining the first ladies. She found it "astounding" how Elizabeth II, just two days before her death, received the new prime minister and asked her to form a new government. It was almost as if she gathered all of her strength, Merkel says, to be sure that Boris Johnson was really gone.
"The death of Queen Elizabeth II marked the end of an era," says Merkel.
"Coincidentally" Reading a Churchill Biography
An era of rationality, predictability, perseverance – not dissimilar to her own era. An age of watching, waiting and drinking tea. An age in which things seemed to take care of themselves if you just kept your nerve. Merkel says she doesn’t know what the queen really thought of Brexit. It was commendable, she says, that even then, the queen didn’t interfere with politics. One of the queen’s rare visits to Downing Street was to honor Winston Churchill, Merkel says, adding that "coincidentally," she had just finished Sebastian Haffner’s Churchill biography.
"According to the book, Churchill apparently loved the war. It sounds perhaps strange. But in that respect, he is the complete opposite of me."
Now, we get to down to the business at hand. Others might talk about the weather to warm up, but she talks about the British monarchy. The global crisis, though, is waiting.
When we spoke at the Berlin Ensemble theater in June, she responded to the question as to how she was doing by immediately talking about the Russian war. It was during this discussion, almost exactly half a year after the end of her tenure, an interview that had actually been scheduled to discuss a book of her speeches that had just been published, that Merkel broke her silence. She spoke briefly about wintertime walks on the Baltic Sea coast to "air out" her chancellorship. She says she listened to "Macbeth" as she walked along the beach, and in Shakespeare, a battle is always right around the corner. One wonders how she felt in winter as Putin gathered his troops on the Ukrainian border, with the Scottish storms and the Baltic Sea winds jumbling together in her ears.
"When the hulyburly’s done, when the battle’s lost and won," calls out one of the witches in the opening scene of "Macbeth." And then all three together: "Fair is foul, and foul is fair: Hover through the fog and filthy air."
"I would have preferred a more peaceful period after my departure, because I really did spend a lot of time on Ukraine," says Merkel.
"But it didn’t come as a surprise. The Minsk agreements had eroded. In summer 2021, after President Biden met with Putin, Emmanuel Macron and I had wanted to put together a productive negotiating format in the EU Council. Some were opposed to the idea and I no longer had the power to push it through, because everyone knew I’d be gone that autumn. I asked others in the Council: 'Why aren’t you speaking up? Say something.’ One said: 'It’s too big for me.’ The other merely shrugged his shoulders, saying that it was an issue for the big countries. If I had run again for re-election that September, I would have followed up. It was the same story during my farewell visit in Moscow. The feeling was quite clear: 'You’re done with power politics.’ For Putin, only power counts. He brought Lavrov along for this last visit. Usually, we tended to meet face-to-face."
The Strain of Power
Between 1991 and 2021, photographer Herlinde Koelbl took regular portraits of Angela Merkel. The result is a visual journey through the Merkel era, published by the Taschen Verlag publishing house.
Angela Merkel. Portraits 1991–2021
From that perspective, does she regret not having run again?
"No," she says. "It was time for someone new. Domestically it was overdue. And on foreign policy, I was also no longer making any progress on a lot of things we were trying to do. Not just on Ukraine. Transnistria and Moldova, Georgia and Abkhazia, Syria and Libya. It was time for a new approach."
She waits four or five seconds, and then says: "But you can’t now act as if everything would have been just fine with the correct attitude."
Is she talking about current German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party? About value-driven foreign policy?
A scant smile emerges, with her lips compressing as it fades as if she’s going to start whistling.
"Deliberate Self-Restraint"
"I don’t want to interfere in current politics," she says. "It is difficult to talk about the past, because you are immediately in the present. Deliberate self-restraint is the order of the day."
It is tempting to believe that she admired the queen for precisely that quality. A woman who didn’t even speak up when her daughter-in-law was chased to death by the paparazzi or after her allegedly favorite son became involved in a sex scandal with an underage girl. A woman who kept silent about problems until they simply faded away.
During her tenure, Merkel often behaved a bit like a monarch. She would wave from the stands during important football matches, she spoke to her people at New Year’s and, during the pandemic, she gave them courage, not unlike Elizabeth.
She often took care of the rest herself.
"There are certain decisions people expect politicians to make without burdening their constituents," she says. "Otherwise, people get the impression: Oh, if you have to explain so much, it’s probably difficult to push it through. That is important for the acceptance of decisions. It won’t become greater just because you have explained them. Look at the NATO summit in Bucharest that is the focus of so much debate because at the time, I didn’t yet want us to welcome Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. At the time, it was only interesting to experts, if at all."
Merkel suddenly recalls that in addition to watching "The Crown" and "Babylon Berlin" with all her free time, she also took in "Munich: The Edge of War," the Netflix film about Neville Chamberlain’s role in the run-up to World War II. Jeremy Irons played Chamberlain. She liked it because it shows Churchill’s predecessor in a different light – not just as a frightened pawn for Hitler, but as a strategist who gave his country the buffer it needed to prepare for the German attack. In her telling, the Munich of 1938 sounds a bit like Bucharest of 2008. She believes that back then, and then later during the Minsk talks, she was able to buy the time Ukraine needed to better fend off the Russian attack. She says it is now a strong, well-fortified country. Back then, she is certain, it would have been overrun by Putin’s troops.
"Pretty Dark," She Says
It's the standard defense, this time embedded in world history. Without blood and pain, free of rubble and fear. Broadcast by a streaming service.
"Matthes plays Hitler," says Merkel.
Beate Baumann nods.
The chancellor meets privately every now and then with the Berlin actor Ulrich Matthes to talk about drama, both onstage and in the world. As a young woman, she saw Hilmar Thate as Richard III in the Deutsches Theater, and later Lars Eidinger in the same role in a different Berlin theater. She saw Ekkehard Schall play Arturo Ui. "Pretty dark," she says, and it’s not totally clear if she is talking about Putin or Bertolt Brecht. At one G-7 summit, she accused Boris Johnson, who was trying to undermine the Northern Ireland Protocol, of being on a path to becoming a dark Shakespearean character. Johnson turned around in annoyance, but returned five minutes later and said: If so, then I’m Hamlet.
In the calm of her post-Chancellery life, it all seems to be mixing together with her political experiences. Classical conflicts, the relationship between Putin and Zelenskyy, between Scholz and Macron, between Xi and Hu, between her and Kohl. The lonely Gerhard Schröder. Her failed search for a successor to her throne. The jesters within her own party. At Wolfgang Schäuble’s 80th birthday, everyone again talked about what a wonderful chancellor he would have made.
She describes the June 2019 Berlin visit of Ukraine’s newly elected President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as if it was an historical drama. The German chancellor was visibly shaking before the two of them strode past the honor formation. The young Ukrainian visitor could not muster the courage to tell her, the mother figure of Europe, what he really thought of her, and his advisers held a different view anyway.
She has always been excellent at imitating her adversaries: Seehofer, Sarkozy, Schröder, Putin, Bush and Kaczynski. She seems to be searching for a universal story where she finds her role – a role she doesn’t currently have in the global crisis.
The Culture Section
She keeps close tabs on the news, of course, but the most interesting pieces are in the culture section, she says. She can recite parts of an interview in the Munich daily Süddeutsche Zeitung with a former CIA analyst, who complains that diplomacy has become a bad word. The analyst says in the interview that the current state of affairs reminds him of the international situation just before World War I, when European heads of state erroneously believed that they would be able to quickly bring a limited war to an end. Before ultimately sliding into a catastrophe that killed an entire generation.
She says she has flipped through a recently published biography of her, written by Ralph Bollmann. He ends with the finding: "Angela Merkel came in as a chancellor of change, but she became a chancellor of stasis. Slowly and painfully, she learned how unprepared the residents of the Western world were for the new."
She shows little patience for such assessments. She checks the numbers and the recollections – she was there after all.
"Writing about 2013 and 2014 as though I had nothing to do other than negotiate Minsk before then asking how I could lose sight of Ukraine, that’s too simplistic for me," she says. "There were also general elections that year, coalition negotiations, there was still Greece, I broke my pelvis. At the moment, for example, everybody is talking about the Russian war, but nobody is saying anything about the EU-Turkey deal. At some point, somebody is going to ask: How could you have forgotten that? I think its important for us to ask ourselves how world history works. According to what rules. Otherwise, we’ll keep making the same mistakes."
Perhaps she just doesn’t like being the subject of portraits – not by painters, not by photographers and not by biographers. It must be intolerable for her to be evaluated by every new op-ed writer who pops up.
"A Politician Doesn't Have to Set an Example"
A few years ago, I asked her how she can deal with sometimes being completely written off in public. She says she just waits until it passes, that views of her ebb and flow. She essentially described her reputation as a law of nature.
"A politician doesn’t have to set an example," she says. "That’s not their job."
On the table of her office lies a thick volume of documents pertaining to German foreign policy in 1991, in which she has just read about the concerns that Helmut Kohl had about the disintegrating Soviet Union. Merkel says that Moscow’s foreign minister at the time, Eduard Shevardnadze, predicted to his German counterpart, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, that if the USSR collapsed, the Crimea question would once again become an issue. Thirty years ago. She repeatedly mentions "The Light that Failed," an analysis jointly written by Ivan Krastev and Stephen Holmes about the West’s amnesia and the East’s loss of identity following 1989. She reads Shakespeare and Schiller to better understand what is currently going on – including with her.
Her role in the great passage of time. Her legacy. What remains.
As she was watching the funeral service for the queen on television, she saw her one-time British counterpart Tony Blair among the mourners. A great political talent, she says, a political contemporary who completely ruined his reputation – in the Iraq War as Bush’s "poodle."
Did she see how George W. Bush recently confused the war in Ukraine with the Iraq War during a recent public appearance, and then tried to pass it off by joking about his age?
A Portrait from George W. Bush
She shakes her head.
"I think it’s a form of self-critique," she says. "On the Iraq War, though, I have to be rather critical of myself as well. I was one of those who chastised Gerhard Schröder at the time for risking the division of the West" for his vocal refusal to join the war effort.
She starts looking for something on her iPad. Perhaps the pathetic "proof" offered by then U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell of Iraq’s alleged WMD program? Or the article that she wrote for the Washington Post at the time defending the war? Instead, she shows a picture that George W. Bush painted of her. The former president took up painting several years ago.
"He painted Berlusconi, Putin, everyone," says Merkel smiling. Perhaps it’s a form of therapy Bush uses to quiet his demons. At his ranch in Texas, Bush told her that his father thought his other son, Jeb, would have made the better president.
One wonders how she fits all the pieces together emotionally, the tens of thousands of deaths and the hobby of the president, who seems to have wanted the war as a way of proving himself to his father. But it is perhaps just a reflection of the skills that the leader of a country has to possess. The big and the small. Above the sofa on the wall behind her hangs a photograph that a German astronaut took from space and gave her. It shows the Baltic Sea island of Rügen, part of her eastern Germany constituency. Everything is there in one picture. Her electoral district. And the rest of the world. Her perspective, her life.
But its over now. Kairos, the god of favorable timing, can no longer help her. It must be torture to recognize the correct moment for a decision, if it’s a decision that you can’t make.
The only thing she can do now is admit to mistakes and beg forgiveness. Everyone wants an apology, particularly for her Russia policies. Wolfgang Schäuble, her former finance minister, wants one, as do 86 percent of the readers of a Zeit Magazin newsletter. But it seems that she isn’t interested in expressing remorse because she isn’t certain that she really did anything wrong. She’s not sure whether history might ultimately prove her right.
Merkel Is No Longer Much of a Topic in Berlin
If you talk to members of the current government, it becomes clear that Angela Merkel is no longer a topic of conversation. Her legacy has been wrapped in protective Styrofoam, as a kind of respect for what she achieved in her time at the top, her longevity. But such conversations also make it clear that her legacy is looking worse and worse: in Russia policy, in energy policy, in health policy, in climate policy, in digitalization. There is a reflex, they say, to avoid blaming her for everything, though that might change in the next campaign. In current discussions, though, she doesn’t play much of a role.
The long hallways of the building that is her new professional home also includes a number of offices belonging to parliamentarians from her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). At the end of sitting weeks, a bell echoes through the corridors to remind lawmakers that they must make their way to the plenary floor to cast their votes. For Merkel, though, the bell is just a reminder that she is trapped here, trapped in time. Her party allies make their way to the elevators to vote on this and that. She only has her legacy, which seems to grow darker by the day. For years, her goal every morning was to "get ahead of the situation," as she puts it. Now, she reads about the situation on SPIEGEL.de. Her office, the costs of which have already become an issue with the bean counters in parliament, is her internal banishment. Angela Merkel’s German exile.
Together with her former office manager Beate Baumann, she has developed escape plans. The book, which they are going to write together, is at the top of the list. Their view of things. In addition is a series of public appearances that doesn’t seem to follow any kind of pattern.
She Now Flies Commercial
One month after she broke her silence at the Berliner Ensemble theater, she appeared at a symposium held at the Leopoldina, the German Academy of Sciences, in Halle. The event marked the 70th birthday of Jörg Hacker, a bacteriologist who once led the Robert Koch Institute and who spent 10 years as a member of Merkel’s innovation dialogue when she was in the Chancellery. The motto of the symposium was: "On bacteria, people and sciences." Merkel wore a red blazer and pushed the ailing professor into the hall in his wheelchair. She looked like his nurse. The photographer Herlinde Koelbl, who was also present, began shooting regular portraits of Merkel in 1991. Her change in appearance, Koelbl says, is most prominent in her eyes. They lost their radiance.
Merkel approached the podium to hold her first big speech since leaving office. "Of bacteria, people and sciences," she said, looking up. "Let’s begin at the beginning, with the bacteria."
That was her message to Germany. Let’s begin at the beginning, with the bacteria.
She had been in Washington a couple of days previously to meet with Barack Obama, the West’s other famous political retiree. During his final visit to Berlin, he seemed to beg her not to leave the world alone with the crazies. And she stayed in office for another four years. But the number of crazies didn’t drop.
She now flies commercial, but still isn’t exactly a normal passenger. Her husband was also on the plane, on his way to an academic conference in Virginia. They had different reasons for making the trip, and he was seated in a different row, she says, but the Lufthansa crew couldn’t imagine such a thing and reseated them next to each other. Perhaps it is such occasions that produce the rumors about their marriage. Serious journalists will sometimes confront you unbidden with shockingly detailed information about who Merkel is supposed to have a relationship with and with whom her husband is allegedly liaised.
On her first evening in Washington, she went to a meeting of American historians in the German Embassy. Merkel thought the focus would be on the war in Ukraine, but it was actually U.S. abortion law. Roe versus Wade. Germany was presented as a role model.
"A strange situation," she says. "Surprising."
With Obama, she also ended up talking less about Russia than she thought they would. And even less about Germany.
"He, of course, has been out of office for longer than me. I have the impression that we agree when it comes to Putin," she says. "After Russia’s annexation of the Crimea, we did all we could to prevent further Russian attacks on Ukraine and we coordinated our sanctions down to the last detail."
Is Obama pleased with his legacy?
"I'm Still Searching a Bit"
"I think he’s at peace with himself. He knows that he will always be a unique personality. I’m still searching a bit. Being able to withstand criticism is part of being in a democracy, but my impression is that once American presidents leave office, they are treated with greater respect in public than are German chancellors."
Obama "airs out" in Hawaii, not on the Baltic Sea coast. He never flies commercial. She visited Obama’s office in Washington and says that around 150 people are working for his foundation. She went with him to the National Museum of African American History and Culture, which was completely closed to other visitors during their tour. At the Italian restaurant in the evening, they were the only people in the room. She sensed his aura, she says. But it is also true that Americans expect their presidents to remain present even after leaving office. Libraries are built for them after their presidencies, while in Germany, chancellor’s only get a federal foundation once they die.
The opening event for the Helmut Kohl Foundation, which Merkel attended a few weeks later, is reminiscent of a memorial service. It takes place in the French Church on Berlin’s Gendarmenmarkt square. A line is waiting at the side entrance, with two CDU lawmakers at its end, Ralph Brinkhaus and Manfred Grund. As if ascending to a stage, Merkel labors her way up the steps to the main entrance, slowly and carefully because of her injured knee.
"The lady seems to be carrying quite a burden," Grund jokes to Brinkhaus, and both laugh. It is with guys like that Merkel had the privilege of spending half her life.
Taking Russia Seriously
CDU chief Friedrich Merz is the first to speak, she's the last. In between, there is someone from the Allensbach Institute, a respected polling firm, which has determined what the Germans think about their chancellors. Adenauer is the most important, followed by Brandt, and then Merkel. She is ahead among 15- to 25-year-olds. Sixteen percent of them don't even know who Helmut Kohl was, the chancellor who delivered German unity. Statistics drape themselves over everyone like a shroud and they are forgotten. Angela Merkel, though, is here to revive Kohl. Her jacket is bright yellow and her voice as clear as a bell. A contrast to Merz, whose voice always sounds like he's speaking into a horn.
Merkel shares a few anecdotes about Helmut Kohl and names three lessons she learned from her predecessor.
First: The importance of the personal in politics.
Second: The joy of creating.
Third: Thinking in historical context.
Give that approach, she says, she is quite certain that Kohl would already be thinking about a time when relations with Russia could be resumed. Because that time will come at some point. She also says that taking Russia seriously isn't a sign of weakness. For a moment, there is reverent, indecisive silence in the CDU. Take Russia seriously? Is that how it works? Then the room breaks into applause. Loud and sustained. Merkel smiles, nods and hobbles off the stage, leaving her party behind with Friedrich Merz in the Berlin night.
Once again, everyone seems quite surprised by how good-humored she is.
Rainer Eppelmann, a Berlin pastor with whom she started engaging in politics 32 years ago, jaunts perkily through the side entrance. "Good speech," says Eppelmann."A good woman."
Two days later, Merkel dives even deeper into German history. In the main square of Goslar, she holds the ceremonial address on the occasion of the city’s 1,100th anniversary.
The audience includes the city's most esteemed citizens, including the mayor and one of the Goslar's famous sons, Sigmar Gabriel, the former head of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Also, for some reason, the ambassador of Indonesia is here. "A very interesting country," as the mayor asserts in her welcoming address. The hall greets Merkel like a pop star. She delivers her speech sitting down because of her knee. She speaks about the history of Goslar like a local guide. Ore mine, the Rammelsberg UNESCO World Heritage site, the Upper Harz water management. Words that she is probably uttering for the first time in her life. Forty-seven churches and chapels, a showplace of Nazi propaganda, host of the founding party conference of the CDU. Afterward, a local jazz band plays their version of Nina Hagen, the same song played for her at the Bendlerblock.
Merkel rushes back to Berlin with her two Audis, which wait for her wherever she goes. Sigmar Gabriel heads out for a meal with the Indonesian ambassador, floating through the ancient alleys of his hometown as if on a cushion of air. Merkel had dropped by the Gabriels for coffee two hours before the anniversary event. She turns down speech offers from American agencies for several hundred thousand dollars, but in Goslar, she delivers a sit-down speech – a favor for Sigmar Gabriel, her former vice chancellor.
Gabriel returns the favor. "I wouldn't worry too much about Angela Merkel's legacy," he says. "She was a good chancellor, and in many ways a great one. There is absolutely no reason for her to apologize about anything. Nord Stream and the sale of gas storage facilities, for which I was responsible, were a consequence of the liberalization of the European energy markets, which was decided by the European Union in 2002. No one wants to hear that today. Angela Merkel certainly didn't believe, as Gerhard Schröder did, that we could politically integrate Russia through the pipelines. That's why she went to Putin and negotiated the political terms. And it was already clear under what conditions Nord Stream 2 would be stopped. The current ones, for example."
Gabriel believes that Putin wouldn't have attacked Ukraine if Merkel were still chancellor. He says Putin had incredible respect for her. As a woman who led the most powerful country in Europe, and, more importantly, a person with a deep understanding of Russia. In October, after visiting Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also said at a press briefing that the war wouldn't have happened if Merkel were still in office.
You can't choose your contemporaries.
The mountain hikes and opera visits to Bayreuth aside, Merkel has spent the last 32 years in politics. What is actually left of friendships, of human relationships?
She says she’s spoken to two people from the party, one in the Uckermark region and one from her constituency. From time to time, she also talks to Macron on the phone. The other day, she sent her greetings to Gerhard Schröder through one of his security staff.
At the end of October, we meet again in the Uckermark, the region where she grew up. She has chosen a small church as our meeting place, a landmark in the forest. She steps out from the autumn leaves like a ghost. She has known the little church that the Huguenots once put here since childhood. By the end of East Germany, it had fallen into complete disrepair, but after the fall of the Wall, Merkel's father Horst Kasner, a former pastor and director of the Templin Pastoral College, made the church his pet project. He founded an association to raise money for the project and they rebuilt the church, completing it in 1994.
"I Want the Chantrelles"
His wife Herlind had obtained her driver's license just a few years earlier. As Merkel tells it, it was an act of liberation. Her mother was able to escape to Berlin from time to time in her Trabant, and she even got an apartment there and taught English and Latin. She would meet up with her daughter in the city, while her husband Horst, left behind in the Uckermark, had to learn how to cook.
"That hit my dad pretty hard," she says. "My mother's independence."
The church could also be seen as a monument to emancipation. Merkel shows the interior of her father's church – simple, tasteful, Protestant.
"Ulrich Matthes has also done a reading here," she says.
I tell her that Matthes doesn't want to talk to me about her anymore. She smiles with satisfaction. The actor has already told her. That's how it has always worked. Loyalty in the Chancellery. If you talked, you were out.
Outside again, in the autumn sun, she briefly brushes off photographer Peter Rigaud. It's all too much for her – the two assistants, the spotlight, the reflective screen. She doesn't like it when others tell her where to stand or what to do.
At a dinner in Berlin's Wilmersdorf district this summer, she wanted to have chanterelles to go with the sauteed calf liver. The patron advised against it, saying it wouldn't go well with the caramelized onions. He recommended spinach instead. She listened, but then said: "I want chanterelles."
She's now standing in front of a tree, with the Uckermark sun glowing behind her.
"That looks great," the photographer exclaims.
"Yeah, sure. Great," she says, shaking her head. "Are we done?"
Beate Baumann calls out from behind. "Don't be so grumpy."
We walk a ways down the dirt road, her security personnel following at a distance of 50 meters. She seems lonely, perhaps because, more than any other area, this is where she belongs. When asked what the Uckermark is to her, she says: "Familiarity and, yes, you have to say, something like home."
Something like home. It’s about as far as she’ll go in Germany.
Only a year ago, in a speech she gave on German unity in Halle, she revealed how the West had sometimes humiliated her, "as if the previous history, that is, life in the GDR, was somehow a kind of imposition," she said. "A ballast." In the east, on the other hand, her fellow compatriots felt that the chancellor had forgotten her origins. "Merkel needs to go!" they shouted. No one credits her with having taken her own path in life. She was born in Hamburg, but her father wanted to spread his Christian message in the east. She grew up in a parish household, but won the Russian Olympiad, a contest promoting the Russian language in the GDR. Merkel studied physics because she didn't want to be a teacher in the East, and then helped out with the East German Citizen's Movement, which pushed for democratic reforms and was later swallowed up by the West German CDU. These were good pre-conditions for a German chancellor who would represent the entire, reunified country. But they could also be bad ones. In the east, she was despised for the very achievement for which the West most admired her: the decision to let the war refugees into the country.
The sentence that seemed to speak most deeply to her wasn't: "We can do this." Rather, it was: "If we start having to apologize for showing a friendly face in an emergency situation, then this is not my country."
During her farewell ceremony at the Bendlerblock in Berlin, there was also a third song. And in contrast to the first two, it’s easy to see why she chose it. The ecumenical hymn, "Holy God, We Praise Thy Name."
In the ninth stanza, it says:
"Look mercifully on your people; Help us, bless us, Lord we are your inheritance! Guide them on the proper course, so that the evil one does not destroy them. Help that in due time. They see thy eternal glory!"
She probably doesn't trust the entire German people.
In the autumn of 1989, she observed that the GDR was collapsing primarily due to its economic shortcomings, rather than its democratic ones. That's perhaps the decisive lesson Merkel drew from the first half of her life for the second. A lesson, it seems possible, that she ultimately applied to trade with China and gas deals with Russia.
"There is an intellectual elite that is very value-driven. But it has no chance if it is not backed by the broad majority. The success model of the West is that people are doing well. And that everyone gets something out of it, whether they are freedom-loving or not. In any case, I think it is very much the right thing to support with multi-billion programs and not to overtax the Germans when it comes to prices," she says. "Not everyone can freeze for Ukraine."
Put On a Sweater, Merkel Said
Baumann laughs. She complained the other morning at the office that it was too cold. Then put on a sweater, Merkel said.
She walks through the Uckermark village as if on inspection. She talks about how one of the old farmhouses is for sale, and even knows the asking price. She talks about the forester's lodge, which corresponds to some Prussian prototype. Back at the little church, she suddenly recalls a motif on the façade of the cathedral in Modena – Cain and Abel, the fratricide, a Biblical scene that, as art historian Horst Bredekamp says, became the experimental field of artistic freedom. And with that, we're back on the topic of war.
In spring, she traveled with Bredekamp to Tuscany to study the Renaissance, one of the first private vacations she had taken since leaving office. When she was there, a tweet reached her from Ukrainian Ambassador Andriy Melnyk saying she should be visiting the mass graves of Bucha rather than Italian cultural sites. It was only a rhetorical barb, but it clearly highlighted the dilemma she is facing. She feels the need to get involved, but she can’t. No one wants her at the table, and she thinks she knows why. She's been out of office for too long.
"You need to experience everything from the inside to be able to meaningfully contribute. So many things have happened since February 24," she says. "But if someone comes to me with question, I'll give them an answer."
"Complicated Enough As It Is"
But no one calls. A few days after our conversation, Scholz said he had always had good contact with her and would keep it that way. But that was likely more of a rhetorical observation. The Chancellor Scholz is on thin ice. His party had a stronger connection to Russian natural gas than Merkel ever did, and Scholz was sitting at Putin's long table just a few days before the war broke out, looking to all the world like a small child.
Some have found themselves wondering why Merkel's experience with the main actors isn't being used in a global crisis of this magnitude. She says the focus should be on Ukraine and not her, and that the Ukrainians would have to request her participation in negotiations. Then it would be up to the German government to approve it. In any case, it’s little more than a thought experiment, she hasn’t received any requests.
"No," she says. "And why should they? It is already complicated enough as it is."
We go for a meal at the Mühlenwirtschaft, a restaurant in the town of Lychen, where she knows the owner. Getting there requires a 12-kilometer drive through beautiful autumnal forests. Once again, there is a separate dining room for her. In that half hour, she has escaped from the world of the Steinmeiers, Scholzes and Zelenskyys and is back in the past, back to where there are lessons, beginnings and endings. The Weimar Republic, the Congress of Vienna, the Religious Peace of Augsburg. All the historical events that she has been examining over the past year. All situations that took place in the calm after the guns fell silent. After World War I, after the Napoleonic campaigns, after the Princes' Revolt and the Second Margravial War.
Can She Still Sleep?
She has a postwar order in mind. Even as the war is continuing.
Merkel and Baumann started reading Churchill's mammoth work on World War II and discovered that the British prime minister wasn’t nearly as enamored of war as they first thought. They say he had a critical view of the League of Nations and the missed diplomatic opportunities.
"Do you know what he called World War II when he spoke with Roosevelt?" Merkel asks.
No.
"The unnecessary war," she says in unison with Baumann.
They glance at each other and nod. It is, one can assume, their commentary on the current situation in the world.
"Through the current war, a certain phase of history has ended. A euphoric phase. The victory of freedom in 1989. Today, we are more facing a world that is again full of complications," says Merkel. Once again, she seems to have fallen into a scientific, law-of-nature perspective. She says she hopes her book will provide answers as to whether she would have been able to intervene and stop the war, she hopes those answers will come to her and develop as she writes.
Can she still sleep after seeing all the terrible images on the evening news?
"Yes," she says. "Of course, sometimes I wake up at night thinking."
About what?
"History does not repeat itself, but I fear that patterns do repeat themselves. The horror disappears with the witnesses. But the spirit of reconciliation also disappears," says Merkel.
"Ms. Baumann noticed that I had become increasingly pessimistic toward the end of my tenure," she says.
"Gloomy," Baumann adds.
Perhaps the most devastating aspect is that she has had to watch how poorly diplomatic solutions are working, and yet she can see no real alternative to them. She offers praise for the resistance of the Ukrainian people, but believes that Germany should not be the first nation to send modern tanks because, as she says, "Germany can still be used to good effect" in Russia. Her thinking revolves around the temperaments of state leaders, seating arrangements, place cards and travel plans, moods, potential partners and unusual coalitions. Merkel was the queen of crisis diplomacy, the empress of late-night negotiating sessions. Before the Minsk agreement, she shuttled back and forth between Berlin, Brussels, Moscow, Kyiv and Washington over the course of eight days until, at one point, as the sun was slowly setting, she sat in a monumental Belarusian palace and negotiated through until morning as waiters tried serving vodka nonstop. Putin would later state that it had been the hardest night of his life.
She was a top diplomat on the global stage, but now she's a diplomatic armchair quarterback. She watched the Shanghai meeting on TV and could see how the relationship between Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Putin has changed.
"Despite the two countries' different political systems, Tokayev is a point of connection for us," she says." He has openly refused to support Putin's war. It requires, I think, incredible strength for a man like that to stand up to Russia. I think President Xi has registered that."
Our hostess comes to take our orders. For a moment, the former chancellor takes a break from her geostrategic considerations. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the president of Kazakhstan, disappears from the Mühlenwirtschaft in Lychen. Merkel orders venison medallions with rosemary potatoes. And a small carafe of red wine. The game was harvested from the forests of the Uckermark.
Take a Deep Breath
When the hostess heads for the kitchen, Merkel switches her focus from the menu back to the world order.
"In Uzbekistan, President Xi was welcomed with troops and by the president. In Putin's case, only the prime minister came. Something is stirring. We have to be careful that we don't set our bar so high that there's no one left at the end who can meet our standards."
She recommends taking a deep breath. And to listen to a number of different voices, not just one. Reflection. Of course, she's aware of the stress Scholz is currently under. There is so much to be done at the same time. So many opinions.
"I can imagine it quite well, it’s like they’re on a hamster wheel," she says. "I also read the articles and can imagine what the chancellor's press clippings must sometimes look like. You have staffers who are concerned. That is what his life is like now. And an ambitious schedule to go with it. One day, it’s China. From Paris to Greece and back again. Ms. Baumann would sometimes exercise her veto so that we wouldn’t lose our might. Otherwise, you couldn’t think,” says Merkel.
"We Humans Are Trivial"
Our hostess comes by to ask if everything is OK.
"Excellent," Merkel says. "The venison is very tender. How is business going?"
"It's OK," the owner says. "Yesterday was dead. Even though it’s vacation time."
"Maybe people just have to save money," Merkel says.
"I think they're all on Mallorca," the owner says. "They couldn't travel for such a long time."
"Right," says Merkel. Perhaps she's thinking about her corona policies. Easter rest and all that.
Mallorca.
"You've got something on the corner of your mouth," Baumann says. "It’s been there the whole time."
The former chancellor wipes it away like a child.
So, what about Scholz and Macron? France and Germany?
"It's always about personal relationships as well, although that might sound trivial. But we humans are trivial, and Germany and France have always overcome their differences," she says. And one can assume in this context that she is referring to men and not humans in general.
Playing with Self-Important Boys
Many years ago, she once arranged to meet Jacques Chirac and Vladimir Putin for crisis talks. When she arrived at the agreed-upon time, the men had already been sitting together for an hour. They had just decided to meet up earlier without the woman. On another occasion, Olaf Scholz announced to her at a meeting of state governors on the federal-state fiscal equalization that her legacy would be decided that night. He was mayor of the city-state of Hamburg at the time. Federal-state fiscal equalization – as her legacy.
She has spent her entire political career alongside self-important boys – and she has frequently won. Merkel prevailed over Helmut Kohl, Edmund Stoiber, Gerhard Schröder and Horst Seehofer, against Pedro Sánchez, Nicolas Sarkozy and George W. Bush. Her whole life has basically been an example of feminist politics, both in domestic and foreign policy. She may not have outwardly pursued feminist politics, but she always embodied it. She never played the woman card, she simply prevailed. Merkel had none of the scandals, no affairs, no plagiarized books, oversold family stories or plagiarized doctoral theses that have plagued other politicians in Germany.
As things currently look, though, that may not help her in the end. Putin, of all people, a man she knew so well and for so long, with all his tricks, his lies, his bravado, is destroying her legacy. The biggest bully of them all. And Trump, whom she once wanted to outlast, is also seeking re-election.
In her party, the blusterers are now getting their way. She says she was extremely bothered by the recent "bickering" in German parliament. The fact that Scholz had adopted Merz's "egregious tone" and was then even celebrated for it in the media. The balancing, moderating, mitigating, asymmetrical demobilization with which she confronted the political positions of her opponent – all that is gone now. She lulled the German people to sleep during her time in office, but now that she has stopped singing, they have woken up.
As long as she continued winning elections, everything worked fine. But everyone seeks to take advantage of weakness. The Queen hadn't even been buried yet, for example, before many Jamaicans started trying to leave the Commonwealth. Some voices inside the German government say that Merkel left office just in time, leaving her successor to pay the tab.
During her final term in office, Merkel had intended to push forward Germany's transition to clean energy, digitalization, to groom a successor and perhaps even to prepare the ground for the first ever government coalition that would include her center-left CDU and the Greens. But those plans all got lost in the daily political grind.
Then, of course, the coronavirus pandemic arrived, but that, too, demonstrated above all how sluggish and inert the country has become under her leadership. When she looked up from the books about the Congress of Vienna and the Augsburg Religious Peace, she once counted how many meetings she had had with the state governors in response the pandemic. There were 28 of them.
"It's amazing how much work is still incomplete after 16 years of work," she says, before adding, surprisingly: "For example, there still isn't a well-functioning electronic health record card. Germany is sometimes lacking in basic curiosity, the joy of new things."
So does one ultimately not achieve anything?
"This is life's trajectory," Merkel says. "I'm a state of pupation right now. You go through different phases in life. The first phase is to get distance from the daily politics. A new phase comes through writing. You used to be trying to shape the next day, but now you're writing about the past. No more hero narratives, no more traps. The best thing about writing is that nothing more can be added. It's material that has been concluded."
"I Have Arrived at the Period of Reflection"
It sounds like a mantra of self-calming. An exercise in hypnosis. Everything is getting heavier and heavier.
A state of pupation.
Merkel and Baumann initially wanted to write a book about the refugee year. The golden year when Time magazine featured Merkel on its cover as its "Person of the Year." But then came the coronavirus and Putin. Now, they want to tell the story of her entire political career. But how will it end? They found a publisher late this summer, and it is reportedly paying a large fee for the German chancellor's memoir. They only just started writing.
Each passing day sheds new light on her legacy. And the past doesn't rest. Recently, when an air defense missile struck Poland, it briefly looked like it might spark a world war. How is it possible to write a book in times like that. With all the noise.
"I have now arrived at the period of reflection," Merkel says. "There is less of the hamster wheel phenomenon."
Baumann writes something down in her notebook. Perhaps the words hamster wheel phenomenon.
As the autumn sun slowly sets, Merkel walks down to the two black Audis that are waiting to take her back into exile. To Berlin. Where, at some point, it will be decided whether the pupated chancellor will become a butterfly.
Rysslands utrikesminister Sergej Lavrov varnade för den "enorma" risken för ett kärnvapenkrig.
“Potentialen för att ett kärnvapenkrig ska bryta ut är ganska stor, även om det startas med konventionella vapen".Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.
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“Han har också profeterat att förbindelserna med Europa aldrig kommer att bli desamma efter striden i Ukraina.”
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Moscow - Dec 01- 2022
Under konflikten i Ukraina varnade minister Sergej Lavrov för den "enorma" risken för kärnvapenkrig och försvarade Kremls bombningar av civil infrastruktur i Ukraina. Han förutspådde också att relationerna med Europa aldrig skulle bli desamma.
“Potentialen för att ett kärnvapenkrig ska bryta ut är ganska stor, även om det startas med konventionella vapen".
Lavrov var snabb med att påpeka att två internationella deklarationer, en av Vladimir Putin och Joe Biden i juni 2021 och en annan av de fem stora stater som har sådana vapen i januari i år, nyligen har främjats av stora länder som varnar för att ingen kan vinna ett kärnvapenkrig och att det därför måste undvikas. Trots dessa uppmaningar varnade diplomaten för att hotet fortfarande är reellt, en situation som han skyller på västländerna för deras stöd till Ukraina: "Vi var beredda att gå längre och säga att inte bara ett kärnvapenkrig inte får utlösas, utan att varje krig mellan kärnvapenmakter också är oacceptabelt. Potentialen för att ett kärnvapenkrig ska bryta ut är ganska stor, även om det startas med konventionella vapen".
Utrikesministern rättfärdigade ryska attacker mot kraftverk och annan civil infrastruktur på ukrainskt territorium med att "de ger stridspotential till de ukrainska väpnade styrkorna, till de nationalistiska bataljonerna, och på dem beror leveransen av de många vapen som väst överöser Ukraina med för att döda ryssar".
Efter bakslagen på slagfältet i Ukraina i september och oktober höjde Kreml kärnvapenretoriken. Å ena sidan sade man att man skulle försvara det annekterade territoriet "med alla medel". President Vladimir Putin tillade att detta beslut "inte är en bluff". Å andra sidan hävdade han att Kiev förberedde sig på att använda "radioaktiva smutsiga vapen", en anklagelse som Ukraina tillbakavisade.
Washington varnade för att en rysk attack med smutsiga vapen eller kärnvapen inte skulle förbli ostraffad, och formen för USA:s svar gavs skriftligen av CIA-chefen William Burns till sin motsvarighet i den ryska utrikesunderrättelsetjänsten, Sergej Narisjkin, i Ankara den 14 november.
Lavrov öppnade dörren för en återgång till dialog, men på ett villkor: "Om våra västerländska samtalspartner inser sina misstag och uttrycker sin vilja att återgå till diskussionen om de dokument som vi föreslog i december". Det vill säga att ta upp de krav som Ryssland lade på bordet före invasionen av Ukraina, som krävde att alla länder som anslöt sig till alliansen efter grundlagen 1997 skulle lämna Nato, vilket skulle innebära att alla nationer öster om Tyskland skulle uteslutas.
Lavrov var skeptisk: "Jag tvivlar på att de kommer att finna styrka och intelligens att göra detta. Men om detta sker plötsligt kommer vi att vara beredda att tala med dem igen". Chefen för den ryska diplomatin tillade att Moskvas förslag var "ärliga" eftersom de inte krävde att USA:s styrkor skulle dras tillbaka från Europa och att Atlantalliansen skulle upplösas från början.
Uttalanden mot Borrell och EU
I vilket fall som helst anser Moskva att förhållandet till EU är nästan obefintligt. "För att svara på om Moskva är avskuret från den europeiska diplomatin måste vi först ta reda på om den existerar", sade han, innan han angrep EU:s höge representant för utrikes frågor Josep Borrell för att han sade att "denna konflikt måste sluta med Ukrainas seger på slagfältet". Lavrov sade: "Vi måste veta när vettiga människor kommer att dyka upp i den europeiska diplomatin". Han sade sedan att han saknar "gester genom diplomatiska kanaler" utöver de besök som Frankrikes president Emmanuel Macron, Tysklands förbundskansler Olaf Scholz och andra europeiska ledare gjorde i Moskva för att träffa Putin innan kriget började.
Moskva anser att den tidigare hjärtligheten inte kommer att återvända och att det är nödvändigt att förhandla fram en ny säkerhetsram "på i grunden nya principer". "Det är klart att om våra västliga grannar, och det är omöjligt att sluta vara i kontakt som grannar, är intresserade av att återupprätta det gemensamma arbetet med europeisk säkerhet, så kommer återupprättandet inte att lyckas eftersom återupprättande innebär en återgång till det förflutna, men vi kommer inte att återgå till en situation av normalitet", förutspådde diplomaten.
Lavrov riktade också sin uppmärksamhet mot Organisationen för säkerhet och samarbete i Europa (OSSE), en organisation som uppstod under det kalla kriget som en plattform för kommunikation mellan de två sidorna. Den ryske utrikesministern ansåg att dess existens "har devalverats" av Natos expansion sedan 1990-talet. Sedan 2014 har Nato övervakat efterlevnaden av vapenvilan i Ukrainas Donbas-region, och dess dagliga rapporter visade alla attacker från båda sidor - den ukrainska armén och Moskva-stödda separatister - som hade registrerats fram till 2022. Uppdraget tvingades dock lämna landet efter den ryska offensiven i februari.
Kritiken mot OSSE kom från alla håll på torsdagen. Medan Lavrov hävdade att den oberoende organisationen påverkas "av västvärldens numeriska överlägsenhet" bland medlemmarna, sade Ukrainas utrikesminister Dmitrij Kuleba på Twitter att OSSE "är på väg mot helvetet" och krävde Moskvas uteslutning eftersom "allt har prövats när det gäller Ryssland: att ge efter för Ryssland, blidka det, vara snäll, vara neutral, kompromissa eller att inte kalla en spade för en spade".
Chefen för den ryska diplomatin fördömde också den isolering som hans land utsätts för. Lavrov kritiserade skapandet av institutioner parallellt med befintliga institutioner utan Moskvas medverkan, såsom Europeiska politiska gemenskapen, en ram för politisk dialog som främjas av den franske presidenten Emmanuel Macron, så att EU kan interagera med länder som inte är en del av EU-projektet. "President Macron sade stolt: 'Vi har bjudit in alla utom Ryssland och Vitryssland'", påminde den högt uppsatta tjänstemannen.
Den vitryske Alexander Lukasjenkos regim har också varit inblandad i kriget i Ukraina, och Lavrov sade att detta samarbete kan spela en mer aktiv roll i framtiden. Om landet under våren fungerade som en plattform för Rysslands offensiv mot Kiev, tillkännagav Vitryssland i september att man skulle skapa gemensamma styrkor med Moskva inom ramen för unionsstaten, en överstatlig enhet som skapades på 1990-talet för att uppnå större politisk och militär integration. "Våra presidenter ägnar ökad uppmärksamhet åt denna fråga (gemensam utplacering) på grund av pågående provokationer, bland annat från Ukraina", sade Lavrov.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned of the "huge" possibility of nuclear war.
“The potential for a nuclear war to break out is quite high… even if it is started using conventional weapons ".
Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.
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“And he has prophesied too that connections with Europe will never be the same after the fight in Ukraine.”
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Moscow - Dec 01- 2022
During the Ukraine conflict, Minister Sergey Lavrov warned of the "huge" risk of nuclear war and defended the Kremlin's bombing of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. He also predicted that relations with Europe would never be the same.
“The potential for a nuclear war to break out is quite high, even if it is started using conventional weapons ".
Lavrov was quick to point out that two international declarations, one by Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden in June 2021 and another by the five major states that possess such weapons in January of this year, have recently been promoted by major countries warning that no one can win a nuclear war, and therefore it must be avoided. Despite these calls, the diplomat warned that the threat remains real, a situation for which he blames Western countries for their support for Ukraine: "We were ready to go further and say that not only should a nuclear war not be unleashed, but that any war between nuclear powers is also unacceptable. The potential for a nuclear war to break out is quite high, even if it is started using conventional weapons ".
The foreign minister justified Russian attacks on power plants and other civilian infrastructure on Ukrainian territory on the grounds that "they provide combat potential to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to the nationalist battalions, and on them depends on the delivery of numerous weapons with which the West is showering Ukraine to kill Russians".
After the September and October battlefield setbacks in Ukraine, the Kremlin raised the nuclear rhetoric. On the one hand, it said it would defend the annexed territory 'by all means'. President Vladimir Putin added that this decision 'is not a bluff'. On the other hand, he claimed that Kiev was preparing to use "radioactive dirty weapons", an accusation rejected by Ukraine.
Washington warned that a Russian attack involving dirty or nuclear weapons would not go unpunished, and the form of the US response was given in writing by CIA Director William Burns to his Russian foreign intelligence counterpart, Sergey Narishkin, in Ankara on 14 November.
Lavrov opened the door to a return to dialogue, but on one condition: "If our Western interlocutors realize their mistakes and express their willingness to return to the discussion of the documents we proposed in December". That is, to take up the demands Russia put on the table before the invasion of Ukraine, which called for the exit from NATO of all countries that joined the Alliance after the Founding Act of 1997, which would mean leaving out all nations east of Germany.
Lavrov was skeptical: "I doubt they will find the strength and intelligence to do this. But if this happens suddenly, we will be ready to talk to them again". The head of Russian diplomacy added that Moscow's proposals were "honest" because they did not demand the withdrawal of US forces from Europe and the dissolution of the Atlantic Alliance from the outset.
Statements against Borrell and the EU
In any case, Moscow considers the relationship with the EU to be almost non-existent. "To answer whether Moscow is being cut off from European diplomacy, we must first find out whether it exists," he said, before attacking EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell for saying that "this conflict must end with Ukraine's victory on the battlefield". Lavrov said: "We need to know when sane people will appear in European diplomacy". He then said he misses "gestures through diplomatic channels" beyond the visits to Moscow to see Putin by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other European leaders before the war began.
Moscow believes that the past cordiality will not return and that it is necessary to negotiate a new security framework "on basically new principles". "It is clear that if our Western neighbors, and it is impossible to stop being in contact as neighbors, are interested in restoring joint work on European security, its restoration will not be successful because restoration means a return to the past, but we will not return to a situation of normality", the diplomat predicted.
Lavrov also focused his attention on the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), an organization that came into being during the Cold War as a platform for communication between the two sides. The Russian foreign minister considered that its existence "has been devalued" by NATO's expansion since the 1990s. Since 2014, NATO has monitored compliance with the ceasefire in Ukraine's Donbas region, and its daily reports revealed all attacks by both sides - the Ukrainian army and Moscow-backed separatists - that had been recorded up to 2022. However, the mission was forced to leave the country after the Russian offensive in February.
Criticism of the OSCE came from all sides on Thursday. While Lavrov claimed that the independent organization is influenced "by the numerical superiority of the West" within its membership, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said on Twitter that the OSCE "is on the road to hell" and called for Moscow's expulsion because "everything has been tried with regard to Russia: pandering to it, appeasing it, being nice, being neutral, compromising or not calling a spade a spade".
The head of Russian diplomacy also denounced the isolation to which his country is being subjected. Lavrov criticized the creation of institutions parallel to existing ones without Moscow's participation, such as the European Political Community, a framework for political dialogue promoted by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, so that the EU can interact with countries that are not part of the EU project. "President Macron proudly said: 'We invited everyone except Russia and Belarus'," the senior official recalled.
The regime of Belarus's Alexander Lukashenko has also been involved in the war in Ukraine, and Lavrov said that this collaboration could play a more active role in the future. If in the spring it served as a platform for Russia's offensive on Kiev, in September Belarus announced the creation of joint forces with Moscow under the Union State, a supranational entity created in the 1990s to achieve greater political and military integration. "Our presidents are paying increased attention to this issue (joint deployment) because of ongoing provocations, including from Ukraine," Lavrov said.
News round-up, Wednesday, November 30, 2022.
Mike Pence Is Having a Moment He Doesn’t DeserveNYT
Ukraine pleads in Paris for the creation of a tribunal to judge Russian aggression
Le Monde
Putin Seeks to Destabilize Ukraine's Neighbor
Spiegel
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Mike Pence Is Having a Moment He Doesn’t Deserve
NYT
Nov. 29, 2022
By Carlos Lozada
Mike Pence had a go-to line during his time as vice president of the United States. When his boss would ask him to carry out some task or duty — say, take an overseas trip or run the response to a pandemic — Pence would look President Trump in the eye, nod and say, “I’m here to serve.”
The phrase recurs in Pence’s new memoir, “So Help Me God,” which covers his years as a congressman, governor of Indiana and vice president, with a focus on Pence’s actions during the assault on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. It is the tale of the loyalist who finally had enough, of the prayerful stand-taker who insisted that he did not have the power to overturn an election, no matter the arguments concocted by Trump and his air-quote lawyers.
With rioters calling for his hanging and Trump tweeting that Pence lacked “the courage to do what should have been done,” the vice president turned to the aides and family members with him in an underground loading dock at the Capitol. “It doesn’t take courage to break the law,” he told them. “It takes courage to uphold the law.” It is an inspiring scene, marred only by Pence then asking his daughter to write down what he said.
Pence has been busy promoting “So Help Me God” on television, distancing himself from Trump (urging him to apologize for dining with a Holocaust-denying white supremacist at Mar-a-Lago last week) and even teasing a possible White House run of his own in 2024. The book debuted at No. 2 on The New York Times hardcover nonfiction best-seller list, and the Justice Department is now seeking to question Pence in its investigation of Trump’s efforts to remain in power after the 2020 election. Clearly, the former veep is having his moment.
Feel free to buy the book, but don’t buy the redemption tale just yet. Pence was indeed in the White House to serve, but he served the president’s needs more than those of the nation. In “So Help Me God,” Pence rarely contradicts the president, even in private, until the days immediately preceding Jan. 6. He rarely attempts to talk Trump out of his worst decisions or positions. He rarely counters Trump’s lies with the truth.
Most damning, Pence failed to tell the president or the public, without hedging or softening the point, that the Trump-Pence ticket had lost the 2020 election, even after Pence had reached that conclusion himself. Americans should be enormously grateful that the vice president did not overstep his authority and attempt to reverse the will of the voters on Jan. 6. But you shouldn’t get the glory for pulling democracy back from the brink if you helped carry it up there in the first place. And, so help me God, Pence did just that.
Why wouldn’t Trump — a man Pence invariably calls “my president” and “my friend” — assume that his vice president would help steal the election? Pence had agreed to so much else, had tolerated every other national and personal indignity with that faraway, worshipful gaze.
The irony is that Pence’s record of reliable servility was a key reason he was in position to be the hero at the end. And so the vice president became that rarest of Trump-era creatures: a dedicated enabler who nonetheless managed to exit the administration with a plausible claim to partial credit. If Pence got to do the right thing on Jan. 6, it was because he had done the wrong one for so long.
The purpose of the vice president, of course, is to serve as second banana, preferably without getting too mottled by lousy assignments, presidential indifference or embarrassing deference. (Pence fills his sycophancy quotas in the book, extolling the president’s physical stamina, likening Trump to Jimmy Stewart’s character in “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” and noting that he displayed a signed copy of “The Art of the Deal” in his West Wing office during his entire vice presidency.) Still, I searched through the 542 pages of this memoir for any instances in which Pence exercised enough character and independent judgment to tell Trump that he might have been on the wrong course about something, about anything. I found two such cases before the events surrounding Jan. 6. Two.
No, it’s not when the president fired F.B.I. director James Comey in May of 2017, an action Trump took not for self-serving reasons, he assured Pence, but because it was “the right thing to do for the country.” (Apparently Pence is so persuaded by this argument that he quotes it twice.) It’s not when Trump praised the “very fine people” on both sides of the Charlottesville tragedy in August 2017. (Any notion of a false equivalence between neo-Nazis and those opposing them, Pence explains, was an unfortunate “narrative” that “smeared” his good friend in the Oval Office.)
It’s not when the administration separated children from their parents at the southern U.S. border. (On immigration, Pence writes, Trump “led with law and order but was prepared to follow with compassion.”) It’s not when Trump pressed Ukraine’s leader to investigate a potential Democratic rival in the 2020 election. (“It was a less-than-perfect call,” Pence acknowledges, but its imperfections were stylistic, the product of Trump’s “casual” and “spontaneous” approach to foreign relations.)
It’s not when Trump confused a frightened populace with his nonsensical coronavirus briefings in the spring of 2020. In fact, Pence explains away those sessions by suggesting that Trump believed that “seeing him and the press argue was in some way reassuring to the American people that life was going on.” And it’s not when Trump shared a stage with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in July 2018 and accepted the Russian president’s denials about election interference. Pence says he encouraged Trump to “clarify” his views, but the vice president seemed far more troubled by media coverage of the event. “The press and political establishment went wild,” he writes. “It sounded as though the president was taking Putin’s side over that of his national security officials.” If it sounded that way, it was because that was the sound the words made when they left the president’s mouth.
That is a standard Pence feint: When Trump says or does something wildly objectionable, Pence remains noncommittal on the matter and just condemns the “ever-divisive press” that covered it. When Trump derided Haiti, El Salvador and various African nations as “shithole countries” in an Oval Office conversation in early 2018, “the media predictably went into a frenzy,” Pence laments. The former vice president even faults journalists for drawing attention to Covid infection numbers in May 2020, “at a time,” Pence writes, “when cases in more than half of the states were dropping, and case rates were also in decline, numbering 20,000 a day, down from 30,000 in April.” As if 20,000 new Americans infected with a dangerous virus each day was not newsworthy.
The two meaningful disagreements that Pence expressed to the president in real time were these: First, Pence demurred when Trump considered inviting Taliban representatives to Camp David; he suggested that the president “reflect on who they are and what they’ve done and if they have truly changed.” Second, the president and vice president had a testy exchange when Corey Lewandowski, a former Trump campaign manager, left a pro-Trump super PAC and joined Pence’s political action committee. Pence reminded Trump that he had encouraged the move, but Trump denied having done so. “By that point I was angry,” Pence acknowledges; he even admits to raising his voice. Somehow, the Taliban and Corey Lewandowski rated equally as lines that shall not be crossed.
Between Election Day on Nov. 3, 2020, and the tragedy of Jan. 6, 2021, while Trump and his allies propagated the fiction of a stolen vote, Pence enabled and dissembled. Describing the outcome of the vote in his memoir, he offers a gloriously exculpatory euphemism, writing that “we came up short under circumstances that would cause millions of Americans to doubt the outcome of the election.” (Circumstances could not be reached for comment.)
When Trump declared victory in the early hours of Nov. 4, Pence stood alongside him in the East Room of the White House, in front of dozens of U.S. flags and behind a single microphone, and “promised that we would remain vigilant to protect the integrity of the vote,” Pence recalls. In the days that followed, Pence addressed conservative audiences and pledged to continue the fight “until every legal vote is counted and every illegal vote is thrown out!”
Note those slippery, wiggle-room formulations. Pence does not directly state that he believed the election had been stolen, yet his rhetoric still appears fully in line with Trump’s position. The ovations at his speeches were “deafening,” Pence notes. So was his public silence about the truth. Less than a week after the election, Pence had already admitted to Jared Kushner that “although I was sure that some voter fraud had taken place, I wasn’t convinced it had cost us the election.” Why not share that conclusion with the public? Why stand by as the big lie grew bigger and Jan. 6 grew inevitable?
The memoir revisits several conversations between Pence and Trump in the weeks immediately preceding Jan. 6 — all missed opportunities to convey the truth to the boss. Instead, Pence reassured Trump that “the campaign was right to defend the integrity of America’s elections.” (Pence often refers obliquely to the actions of “the campaign,” as if he played no role in it, as if his name was not even on the ballot.) He dances around reality, coming closest to it when he advised the president that “if the legal challenges came up short and if he was unwilling to concede, he could simply accept the results of the elections, move forward with the transition, and start a political comeback.”
On Dec. 14, 2020, state electors officially voted and delivered an Electoral College majority to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, leading Pence to acknowledge that “for all intents and purposes, at that point the election was over.” He says so now in the memoir; if only he had said it in public at the time. Yes, he told Trump repeatedly that the vice president lacks the authority to overturn the results of the election. But not once in his book does Pence say to the president that, even if I had the authority, I would not exercise it — because we lost.
Throughout “So Help Me God,” readers find Pence still running interference for Trump, still minimizing his transgressions. When he quotes the president’s video from the afternoon of Jan. 6, in which Trump finally called on the rioters to stand down, Pence makes a revealing omission. Here is how he quotes Trump: “I know your pain, I know your hurt … but you have to go home now, we have to have peace.” What did Pence erase with that ellipsis? “We had an election that was stolen from us,” Trump said in the middle of that passage. “It was a landslide election, and everyone knows it, especially the other side.” So much of Pence’s vice presidency is captured in those three little dots.
Sometimes the problem is not the relevant material Pence leaves out, but the dubious material he puts in. Pence writes, with an overconfidence bordering on overcompensation, that he was going to win re-election as Indiana governor in 2016, that his victory “was all but assured.” In fact, Pence’s approval ratings in the final stretch of his governorship were low and polls indicated a tight contest against his Democratic opponent.
Pence writes that Trump “never tried to obscure the offensiveness of what he had said” on the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape, perhaps forgetting that Trump dismissed his words as mere “locker room talk” and later suggested that the voice on the recording might not have been his own.
Pence also writes that the White House, busy with its Covid response, did not have “much time for celebrating” after the president’s acquittal in his first Senate impeachment trial in February 2020, even though the next day Trump spoke about it in the White House for more than an hour before a crowd of lawmakers, aides, family members and lawyers. Trump explicitly called the speech a “celebration” and referred to that day, Feb. 6, 2020, as “a day of celebration,” as Pence, sitting in the front row, no doubt heard. The day would indeed prove a high point in the administration’s final year, as a pandemic, electoral defeat and insurrection soon followed.
“I prayed for wisdom to know the right thing to do and the courage to do it,” Pence writes of the days before Jan. 6. Unsurprising for a book with this title, Pence’s Christian faith is a constant reference point. Raised Catholic, Pence describes being born again during his college years and joining an evangelical church with his wife. Throughout the memoir, Pence is often praying, and often reminding readers of how often he prays.
Each chapter begins with a Bible passage, and Pence highlights individuals he deems particularly “strong” or “devout” Christians, with Representative Julia Carson of Indiana, who died in 2007, Senator Josh Hawley, Representative Jim Jordan and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo making the cut. I kept wondering if he would consider the role that his outspoken faith may have played in getting him on the ticket in the first place. If Trump picked him to reassure Christian conservatives, how does Pence feel about that bargain?
In the epilogue, Pence provides a clue. Of all the Trump administration’s accomplishments, he writes, the “most important of all” was making possible the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson, which ended the constitutional right to abortion. “The fact that three of the five justices who joined that opinion were appointed during the Trump-Pence administration makes all the hardship we endured from 2016 forward more than worth it.” Pence, in other words, is the ultimate “But Gorsuch!” voter. That is what he got out of the bargain, plus a new national profile that he may leverage into a bid for the only higher office left to seek.
In the book’s appendix, Pence reprints several documents that emphasize different aspects of his public service. There is his 2016 Republican convention speech, in which he hailed Trump as both an “uncalculating truth-teller” and “his own man, distinctly American”; his 2016 State of the State of Indiana address; his letter to Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, in which he stated that the vice president’s role in certifying an election is “largely ceremonial”; and his letter to then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, six days after the attack on the Capitol, refusing to invoke the Constitution’s 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office. Pence also adds two texts in which he takes special pride, and which I imagine him citing in any future presidential run.
First is an essay titled “Confessions of a Negative Campaigner,” which Pence published in 1991 after his second failed run for Congress. “It is wrong, quite simply, to squander a candidate’s priceless moment in history, a moment in which he or she could have brought critical issues before the citizenry, on partisan bickering,” Pence wrote. He was describing himself, with regret. The second is a speech that Pence, then representing Indiana’s Sixth Congressional District, delivered at Hillsdale College in 2010. “You must always be wary of a president who seems to float upon his own greatness,” Pence declared. He was describing the Obama presidency, with disdain. The president, he wrote, “does not command us; we command him. We serve neither him nor his vision.” Pence warned that “if a president joins the power of his office to his own willful interpretation, he steps away from a government of laws and toward a government of men.”
These documents provide an apt coda to Pence’s vice presidency. One day, he may use them to distinguish himself from his president and his friend, to try to show that Pence, too, can be his own man. For now, he does not make the obvious connection between the sentiments in his essay and speech and his experience campaigning and governing alongside Donald Trump. Or if he does, he is calculating enough to keep it to himself.
After all, Mike Pence was there to serve.
Ukraine pleads in Paris for the creation of a tribunal to judge Russian aggression
Kyiv is trying to influence the French position, which remains in favor of the International Criminal Court, to judge this particular crime: the invasion of one country by another.
By Stéphanie Maupas (La Haye (Netherlands), correspondent)
Le Monde
Published on November 30, 2022 at 09h34, updated at 09h42 on November 30, 2022
Anton Korynevych, Ukraine's ambassador for international humanitarian law, and Oksana Zolotaryova, director of legal affairs for Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speak to the International Court of Justice on March 7, 2022. PHIL NIJHUIS / AP
On a visit to Paris, the Ukrainian ambassador for international humanitarian law, Anton Korynevych, is trying to get French authorities to support the creation of a tribunal to judge Russia's aggression. The diplomat, who said he had to take three trains and a plane to reach the French capital, took part in a Monday, November 28 meeting organized at the request of the presidency of Ukraine by the think tank Synopia. The meeting took place behind closed doors, in the luxurious residential headquarters of the Circle of the Interallied Union club, a few meters from the Elysée Palace. French MPs, officials from the Foreign Affairs Ministry, representatives of the justice and defense ministries, lawyers and judges also attended.
While Paris has been the leading voice in refusing this French-British project launched by the lawyer Philippe Sands at the end of February, the United States and the United Kingdom are also opposed to a new tribunal. In recent weeks, however, French resistance to the idea seems to have waned. At a time when people are talking more and more about the post-war period, Paris is willing to talk about the challenges that such a tribunal would present.
Ukraine is disappointed by the ICC
Ukraine can judge perpetrators of aggression but cannot prosecute Vladimir Putin, who benefits from the immunity of heads of state. Kyiv is therefore calling for a special tribunal to judge the specific crime of invasion of one country by another – the crime considered to be at the origin of the others, including war crimes and crimes against humanity. For Oleksandra Drik, of the Ukrainian NGO Center for Civil Liberties and winner of the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize, the aggression tribunal "would allow justice to be rendered for all victims."
But, according to one of the experts at the meeting, which Le Monde attended, aggression, also described as a "crime against peace" during the Nuremberg trials, has become "the blind spot of international justice." In 2010, it took a diplomatic conference to include this crime in the penal code of the International Criminal Court (ICC). At the time, Washington, Paris and London drastically limited the Court's room for maneuver, to the point that today, authorization from the UN Security Council would be required to be able to try Russia for the crime of aggression, which Moscow would obviously veto.
The French government also believes that such a tribunal would compete with the ICC, which is already investigating crimes against humanity and war crimes in Ukraine. In recent years, France has consolidated its support for the Court, considered one of the key players in the multilateralism strongly promoted by Emmanuel Macron. "Our contacts with the ICC are daily, concrete and effective," said Mr. Korynevych. However, although Ukraine has made many declarations of good intentions toward the ICC, it has still not ratified its founding treaty.
Ukraine considers the ICC highly disappointing since, having received a filing from Kyiv as early as 2014, it only opened an investigation into Russian aggression in February 2022. Since the beginning of the war, prosecutor Karim Kahn has been careful not to use Vladimir Putin's name or describe Russia's crimes as "genocide," as he's concerned about the court's independence. He has also reminded the two armies of their responsibilities. And he's opposed to the project of a special tribunal, which he sees as redundant.
'No other solution'
In Ukraine, many believe that the prosecutor will only target secondary criminals. "Will the ICC really be able to prosecute [Vladimir Putin]?" asked Mr. Korynevych. "Idi Amin Dada died in his bed, but today this would not be possible," said Bruno Cathala, a judge and former ICC clerk. Unfavorable to a trial in absentia and aware that it will be difficult to judge the Russian president, "what counts is the indictment," said Mr. Korynevych, as well as the potential effects of future arrest warrants. "Maybe this will bring about changes in Russia, or even already has?" he suggested. It remains to be seen whether the challenge will prompt the ICC to speed up its investigation, and whether ICC-issued arrest warrants for Mr. Putin along with his defense and foreign ministers would end efforts to create the aggression tribunal.
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In any case, "creating a tribunal takes two years," said Mr. Cathala. "Building a political consensus will take time." More than a dozen European countries are now in favor of the special court, and supporters are looking for the broadest possible support because prosecuting Mr. Putin requires that the future tribunal put an end to his immunity. In New York, however, Ukraine war "fatigue" can be observed. On November 14, the UN General Assembly adopted by a very small majority a resolution calling for the creation of a register to record the claims of the Ukrainian population and government, with the aim of obtaining reparations from Russia. During the debates, several countries asked the West to pay for slavery, colonialism, interference and climate change. Still, for Ms. Drik, "there is no solution other" than the formation of the aggression court to "force Russia to pay." For Mr. Korynevych, "the participation of the oligarchs is indispensable." Despite the legal obstacles, Kyiv hopes that the frozen assets of the oligarchs will pay for the reparations.
Putin Seeks to Destabilize Ukraine's Neighbor
Moldova is seeking to join the European Union, but Russia is doing everything it can to destabilize the small republic. The Kremlin has radically throttled gas deliveries and is orchestrating protests in the country.
By Maximilian Popp in Chişinău, Moldova
23.11.2022, 21.15 Uhr
They have gathered in front of the Presidential Palace in Moldova’s capital city Chişinău, just as they have for weeks. Older men in sweatpants and peasant women in headscarves. There appear to be several thousand of them, protesting against energy prices, which have multiplied in Moldova since last year. The Moldovan flag is flying everywhere, and the demonstrators chant in Russian: "Maia Sandu must go!"
DER SPIEGEL 47/2022
The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 47/2022 (November 19th, 2022) of DER SPIEGEL.
When the leader of the demonstration, the pro-Russian opposition politician Ilan Şor, is connected by video, a murmur goes through the crowd. A court sentenced Şor to seven and a half years in prison for fraud. But to escape his jail time, he fled to Israel. The United States government has imposed sanctions on him for fomenting unrest in Moldova with Moscow’s help. President Sandu has ruined the economy, Şor claims, and only his party can save the country.
A Proxy Conflict Between Russia and the West
Moldova, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, has a population of just 2.5 million. With a per-capita income of around 5,100 euros, it is one of the poorest countries in Europe. Yet despite its small size, it is at the center of the conflict between Russia and the West.
Ever since declaring independence in 1991, Moldova has been almost continuously ruled by pro-Russian political forces. Then, in November 2020, voters elected Maia Sandu, a Harvard graduate and former World Bank economist. She removed pro-Russian officials from the state apparatus and, after Russia's attack on Ukraine, she sided with Kyiv. This is likely one of the reasons the European Union moved in June to declare Moldova as a candidate country.
Moscow, on the other hand, is doing all it can to destabilize the country. Gazprom halved natural gas supplies to Moldova in November, according to Sandu. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence reports obtained by the Washington Post provide evidence that the Kremlin has thrown its support behind Sandu opponent Şor.
Without help from Europe, the Sandu government could fall this winter and be replaced by a pro-Russian regime, with consequences for the entire region.
Sandu, 50, is sitting with her winter coat on at the Presidential Palace on a November morning. She has turned off the heat to save energy.
Until recently, Moldova drew 100 percent of its natural gas needs from Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned monopoly. About two-thirds of the flow came through Transnistria, an unrecognized breakaway region in eastern Moldova that is backed by Moscow, with the remaining third coming through Ukraine.
Now, though, Russia has partially cut off gas supplies to Moldova, and Transnistria is also refusing to continue supplying electricity to Chişinău. The problem is compounded by the fact that Ukraine hasn’t been exporting energy for several weeks because of Russia's attacks on its civilian infrastructure. "We are being blackmailed by Moscow," Sandu says. The government is trying to solve the problem by buying gas and electricity on the European market, with much of the power coming from Romania. But the prices are so high that Sandu is having trouble finding the money to pay for it. "We're at risk of a blackout this winter," she says.
Sandu took office two years ago as a reformer, aiming to fight corruption and break the power of the oligarchs. Many young people who had previously lived abroad came to work for her government after she won the election. Her chief of staff has worked for the former head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, in Brussels, and her foreign minister for a think tank in Paris.
Sandu has now become a crisis manager more than anything else. She has greatly reduced energy consumption in the country. In Chişinău, streets are barely lit, and public buildings are only partially heated. She has also scaled back government spending and postponed infrastructure projects. Inflation in Moldova is close to 35 percent, and the economy is expected to stagnate this year. "We reached the pain threshold long ago," says Sandu.
Sandu has placed a sheet of paper full of notes on the table in front of her - she has thought carefully about what she wants to say in our interview. She is widely considered to be a perfectionist, and she has clearly suffered from the fact that she doesn't have much leverage when it comes to influencing the energy crisis. "Everything we've worked for over the years is now at stake," she laments.
Sandu sees herself as a supporter of a unified Europe. A European flag hangs on the wall of her office, and her government embodies all the values the EU so enthusiastically claims to represent: It is democratic, it is open, and it is diverse. But during this crisis, Brussels has largely left Moldova to fend for itself. Still, Sandu shies away from open criticism of the EU. She does, though, make it clear in the interview that she expects more help from the Europeans. "We’re defending democracy under the most difficult conditions," she says.
While European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised Sandu 250 million euros in aid during a visit to Chişinău on November 10, government calculations indicate that Sandu needs at least twice that amount. And if the money doesn't arrive quickly, high-ranking Moldovan officials have warned, the state faces bankruptcy. Should that happen, the government would no longer be able to pay the salaries of civil servants, and the lights would go out in Chişinău and other cities.
That's the scenario Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is presumably hoping for. Russia's FSB domestic intelligence service has infiltrated the government apparatus in Moldova for years. Moldovan officials claim the agency worked primarily with Igor Chayka, the Moldovan envoy of Delovaya Rossiya, a pro-Kremlin business association. According to Ukrainian intelligence data, Chayka and his contact at the FSB communicated more than 6,000 times between December 2020 and June 2022.
The FSB Refers to Şor as "The Young One"
The U.S. Treasury Department added Chayka to its sanctions list in October. A statement from the Treasury Department claims he developed "detailed plans" together with Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov to undermine President Sandu's government and "return Moldova to Russia's sphere of influence." It further states that Moscow used Chayka's companies as a front to funnel money to collaborating political parties in Moldova. "Some of these illicit campaign funds were earmarked for bribes and electoral fraud," it states.
Chayka and the FSB relied primarily on exiled politician Şor. The 35-year-old became rich as the head of a bank and a duty-free chain. He also owns a football club. In 2015, voters elected Şor as mayor of the small town of Orhei, which is located about 50 kilometers north of the capital. Two years later, however, a court convicted him of having played a role in the theft of a billion dollars from Moldovan banks. He appealed the decision. Since 2019, he has led his party, named after himself, from exile in Israel. He is currently polling at around 15 percent.
A high-ranking Russian politician recently praised Şor as a "worthy long-term partner." The FSB, meanwhile, refers to him as "the young one," according to the Washington Post. Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russian strategists first traveled to Chişinău on behalf of the Kremlin last spring to advise Şor’s party. Şor himself claims that his party is independent. He considers the Americans' sanctions against him to be a "victory." He claims they demonstrate that President Sandu knows that her days are numbered.
Bags of Cash in Party Offices
Şor is seeking to ratchet up the pressure on the government by organizing protests against the high energy prices. In October, Moldova’s anti-corruption prosecutor arrested 24 people, including members of the Şor Party, on allegations that they had provided illegal funding to anti-government protests. Moldova’s Interior Ministry says investigators found bags of cash in party offices.
In late September, a Şor confidant gained control of the two largest pro-Russian television stations in Moldova, allowing the politician to spread his propaganda even more widely from exile.
"Moscow's campaign against the Sandu government is a prime example of hybrid warfare," says Iulian Groza of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms, a think tank based in Chişinău. "Instead of tanks, the Russians are using energy and disinformation."
If the government under Sandu does indeed fall over the energy crisis, experts fear that this could also have consequences for the war in Ukraine. Aid regularly reaches Ukraine via Moldova, and war refugees also pass through the country on their way to EU countries, and some also stay. A pro-Moscow regime, could create problems for the aid and refugees alike.
On an early November morning, Moldova's Interior Minister Ana Revenco, dressed in sneakers, a fleece jacket and wearing her hair in a ponytail, is traveling in a van from Chişinău to the border with Ukraine. She makes these visits, she says, to gain the trust of her border officials. Revenco assumes that some in her department still mourn the fact that the Russia-friendly Party of Socialists-led government lost the last election.
Since the war began in February, 700,000 war refugees have crossed the border into Moldova; and about one in 10 has stayed in the country. Revenco has had a tent camp erected at the Palanca border crossing, as well as a bus station to register refugees if need be and transport them on to EU states. The minister wants to be prepared in case the war in southern Ukraine escalates. Odessa is only about 50 kilometers away from Palanca.
Update: At a bilateral donor conference in Paris between Germany and France on Monday night, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pledged 32.3 million euros in additional aid from Berlin, and French President Emmanuel Macros said his country would give further aid to the tune of 100 million euros. "It is Putin's intention to blackmail (countries) dependent on it through energy supplies," Baerbock said. "But this won’t work. Moldova has friends and partners in the EU."
In China, Xi Jinping's absolute power is being challenged
News analysis
Frédéric Lemaître
Beijing (China) correspondent
China's children love their country, writes Le Monde's correspondent in Beijing. But restricting their freedom only leaves them craving for democracy.
Published on November 29, 2022 at 11h40, updated at 12h59 on November 29, 2022 Time to 5 min. Lire en français
During a Shanghai demonstration against China's zero-Covid policy on November 27, 2022. AP
Like any self-respecting dictator, Xi Jinping is convinced that whoever holds the party holds the country. The facts have long proven him right. With its 96 million members (about one adult in 12), the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unparalleled in the world, physically present in the smallest neighborhoods and the smallest businesses in this continental country. Selected among the best pupils and students, its members constitute a technocratic elite that manages China according to Beijing's orders.
In President Xi Jinping's dream world, the CCP knows what is good for the people, since it itself comes from them. And since it makes the right decisions, the people are therefore grateful. One of the sentences he uttered at the 19th CCP congress in 2017 sums up his thinking quite well: "Party, state, military affairs, civil affairs, education, east, west, south, north, center – the party runs everything." His speech on October 16, at the opening of the 20th congress, is equally fascinating. The criticism of his predecessors occupied an infinitely greater place there than the management of Covid-19.
All evils come from abroad
The party was mentioned more than 140 times, far more than any other term. Similarly, following the congress, Mr. Xi did not go to a place symbolic of the China of 2022 to meet his people. Instead, he took the six other CCP leaders to the farthest reaches of Shaanxi, where Mao waited for his time from 1935 to 1949, in a region that is becoming a communist pilgrimage site. It's far from the China of tomorrow, but also from the China of today, which suffers from the zero-Covid policy, unemployment and bankrupt property developers.
Power isolates and absolute power isolates absolutely. Nothing illustrates this better than the demonstrations against the zero-Covid policy over the last few weeks and against the CCP dictatorship over the last few days. When Mr. Xi inspects a province – a communist leader does not "visit," he "inspects" – everything is organized so that he does not encounter any discontent.
A provincial teacher recently recounted how, one evening around 10 pm, the school principal called all the teachers to be present at 7 am because of an "important event." The next day, each teacher, accompanied by a policeman, had to go to a district in the city and give the order to each inhabitant to close and stay away from their windows. Still without knowing the reason for this strange instruction. It was only a few hours later that she realized that Mr. Xi was about to "inspect" the area and meet with a few hand-picked residents.
Similarly, in April 2021, the Chinese leader visited Tsinghua University, the most prestigious university in Beijing. After praising the experts "guided by Marxism," he left, greeted, according to the photos, by hundreds of young people waving small red flags. He probably concluded that the elite of tomorrow was satisfied with his standing. The problem is that these are the same students who, on November 27, demonstrated, sang "The Internationale" and demanded more democracy.
The young people of Generation Z are all the more courageous because many do not know what happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989
It is believed that leaders are better informed than the common man. This is not true. The journalists of the China News Agency have two functions: to publish articles intended to spread the official truth among the population and, at the same time, to transmit "real information" to Beijing.
For example, in Wuhan in January 2020, the same reporters explained to the people that the new virus could not be transmitted from human to human while writing the opposite to the leaders. According to a recent Associated Press investigation, the most important dispatches used to land on the prime minister's desk. But Mr. Xi demanded to receive them directly. As a result, journalists no longer dare to bring up bad news.
In the story of the Chinese leader, all of China's ills come from abroad, from a West that wanted to "humiliate" it for more than a century (1839-1949) before the CCP "liberated" it. It's the same West that incited the Arab Spring and the color revolutions starting in 2011, just before Mr. Xi came to supreme power and saved the CCP and the country.
'The same poison as in Hong Kong'
Since this weekend, this little nationalist tune can be heard again. "It's the same poison as in Hong Kong: young people who don't have local characteristics, but have a Taiwanese or Hong Kong accent and a Western appearance – a typical style of the color revolutions," denounced a blogger from Fudan University. "The demonstrations hurt our national solidarity and strengthen our enemies from within and outside," said Li Guangman, another well-known nationalist blogger, who also denounced the Chinese pharmaceutical laboratories, which are private and therefore corrupted by the West. Since Monday, in some cities, the police have been checking young people's cell phones and removing Western apps.
The CCP knows how to crack down on protesters through arrests and intimidation. In the coming days and weeks, the families of the protesters will be visited by the police and told that, in the interests of everyone, they should keep a closer eye on their children.
But the regime is clearly worried by this movement that it did not see coming. "With the relaxation of pandemic controls and the monitoring of the measures [adopted], public sentiment will calm down. I can make an absolute prediction: China will not fall into chaos or [get out] of control," wrote Hu Xijin, one of the regime's top propagandists, on Twitter.
One option for the government would be to relax the zero-Covid policy, while presenting it as a "unique success in the world" and, at the same time, to crack down on protesters, strengthen censorship on social media and increase pressure on teachers. In recent days, the media have been putting more emphasis on the Omicron variant's low-mortality rate and, as Li Guangman's article shows, have found a new scapegoat: the pharmaceutical companies. "If the pandemic is to be controlled, the mess with PCR testing must be stopped," wrote The Health Daily on November 29.
A desire for the West
Beyond the health policy, the weekend demonstrations showed that, despite the propaganda, a segment of the youth is ready to fight in the name of human rights and those values that the regime continues to define as purely "Western."
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Born after 2000, the young people of Generation Z are all the more courageous because a significant number of them know little or nothing about what happened in Tiananmen Square in June 1989.
Xi Jinping's children are both nationalistic and liberal. They love China and are proud of its successes, but they also want to be able to listen to Korean K-pop, watch NBA basketball games and see Chinese or foreign films that move them. By restricting their freedoms and pursuing an economic policy that makes their lives more difficult, Mr. Xi is awakening in them a desire for rights and openness that in recent years seemed to have lost its power.
Frédéric Lemaître(Beijing (China) correspondent)
"The Regime's Legitimacy Is Eroding"Iran Protests Continue Despite Brutal Repression
The uprising against the Islamist dictatorship in Iran is entering a new phase and the regime is doing all it can to survive. For how much longer can the mullahs cling to power?
By Anne Armbrecht, Julia Amalia Heyer, Muriel Kalisch, Mina Khani, Maximilian Popp, Christoph Reuter, Omid Rezaee und Özlem Topçu
25.11.2022, 17.49 Uhr
There isn’t a single place where she is safe from the regime’s henchmen, says Anoush, not even in her dreams.
It has been just over a month since DER SPIEGEL first spoke with Anoush, a teacher from the Iranian capital of Tehran in her mid-20s. At the time, the protests that erupted following the September death of the young Kurdish woman Jina Mahsa Amini had already spread throughout the country. Anoush says she began taking part in the demonstrations from the very beginning. Now, she has again decided to share her experiences, using long chat messages to do so. She has, however, changed the service she uses: She no longer feels that WhatsApp is secure enough.
DER SPIEGEL 48/2022
The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 48/2022 (November 26th, 2022) of DER SPIEGEL.
The regime, she says, has drastically ratcheted up the pressure. The terror, she says, is everywhere, with only a fraction of it making it into the media. An acquaintance of hers, she says, was raped in prison after being arrested, with the guards having fired at her genitals with paintball guns. "Since then, I have been having a recurring nightmare of being raped myself," she says.
Despite the violence, people in Tehran and elsewhere in the country are continuing to take to the streets. Their primary focus this week has been the massacres in the Kurdish areas of the country. It is difficult, however, to determine where the demonstrations are taking place and how large they are since the internet has been blocked in many parts of the country.
"We cry ourselves to sleep and wake up with new hope."
Anoush, a teacher from Tehran
The fight against the dictatorship is no longer finding its expression only in street protests, says Anoush. "We are screaming from the windows, even if security forces are opening fire more frequently. We are boycotting companies that advertise on state television. We are using cash instead of credit cards, collecting money for the people in the Kurdish areas. It is difficult to get help to them, but some people are trying. When we cross the streets, we give each other the V for victory sign. We cry ourselves to sleep and wake up with new hope."
Fewer Mass Protests, More Flashmobs
The uprising against the mullahs has been underway for 10 weeks, longer than most thought possible – Iranian rulers, the international community, and even the protesters themselves. And the shape of the resistance is changing, according to reports from inside Iran. There are fewer mass protests, but more flashmobs. Small groups from a specific district, sometimes even just a single residential building, suddenly emerge and begin shouting: "Down with the dictatorship!," filming the event and then melting away. The anger, however, has remained just as intense. "Nobody is staying quiet," says a 41-year-old from the middle class Tehran district of Sadeghiyeh.
For many Iranians, the uprising has become a part of their everyday lives. In the social networks, images and videos are being shared by tens of thousands of people. You can see videos from Tehran showing people from all walks of life – from young hipsters to elegant, middle-aged women – strolling through the city with their hair uncovered and greeting each other with fist bumps. You can see embracing and kissing in front of their city’s landmarks.
In Iran at the moment, says the Bern-based Orientalist Reinhard Schulze – who is speaking on the phone with friends across the country almost daily – the definition of Iranian nation is currently at stake. The central question: Who represents the Iranians?
"We do," insists the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which continues to have its opponents sentenced to death.
"We do," counter those who have risen up against the regime. Initially, their insurrection came merely in the form of refusing to cover their hair, instead tearing off their headscarves. Increasingly, though, the rebellion is becoming more militant, including the use of Molotov cocktails.
Schulze believes that the character of the Iranian nation has changed over the past several weeks. The population, he says, believes less and less in the promises made by the Islamic Republic and its institutions, which has been in power for 43 years. Day by day, people are demanding a more liberal model in which the rule of law should also play a strong role, says Schulze.
A Slap in the Face for Tehran
The fact that political power in the country is at stake could also be seen on Monday, when the Iranian national team at the World Cup in Qatar demonstratively kept their mouths closed during the playing of their country’s national anthem. It was a clear protest with the world watching – and a slap in the face of the rulers back in Tehran.
Most of the players on the Iranian national team had long been wary of making clear political statements, in part no doubt because of enormous pressure from the regime. On the eve of their departure for Doha, the players even met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Did they have a choice? Images of the meeting distributed by the president’s office show the team sitting on chairs in a circle around Raisi. The players are wearing suits, with several of them bowing, hands over their hearts. Many began referring to them as "Team Mullah," and people on the streets of Tehran lit fire to World Cup posters and pictures of the team.
"The regime's legitimacy is eroding."
Reinhard Schulze, Orientalist
One can only guess at why the national team players ultimately decided to stage their silent protest. They provided no explanation following the match. Were they simply waiting for the largest possible stage for their gesture? Or did the pressure, after months of doing nothing, simply grow too heavy? Did they have a bad conscience vis-à-vis the millions who had idolized them? Or was it merely a desire to be on the "right side" of history?
It also isn’t clear how the regime will react to the anthem boycott. Ahead of the tournament, the national players were reportedly threatened. But it seems unlikely that the regime will exert the same force on the national team as they do against demonstrators on the streets. The players, believes the U.S.-based women’s rights activist Maryam Shojaei, are simply too popular. Shojaei focuses her work on gaining access for women to sporting events in Iran. Speaking of the players on the Iranian World Cup team, she says: "They enjoy an immunity that normal people don’t have."
That's why for Shojaei and other activists, the gesture of the national team players didn’t go far enough. "If you want to see real courage, then look at the young women who are risking their lives at the protests."
It is nevertheless clear that a significant shift is underway in Iranian society. "The regime’s legitimacy is eroding. They are no longer recognized by their own people,” says Orientalist Schulze. He believes that the mullah’s grip on power has become fragile. Of course, he says, it is difficult for many in the population to believe that the mullahs might one day be swept from power. But there is also a significant amount of hope and plenty of courage.
In the beginning, he was part of a group of four, says 23-year-old paramedic Ardalan, from the Kurdish north of the country, who told his story over the course of dozens of voice messages. They were an emergency response team tending to injured demonstrators. "Two were murdered and one was arrested. I’m the only one left." He says that he too was taken to prison and tortured, and charged with "insulting the Prophet" because he had helped the wounded. He was then released on bail, "and I’m still going! We have to treat the wounds immediately, otherwise many of them won’t survive." Early on, he says, they were fired at with teargas and buckshot, but that hasn’t been the case for some time. Now, he says, the regime is using snipers and "dushkas," – large-caliber machine guns that are frequently mounted on the beds of pickups.
Ever since Ayatollah Khomeini grabbed power in 1979, Tehran has been propagating the fight against purported American imperialism and against the discrimination of Shiite Muslims in Saudi Arabia and in other Gulf autocracies.
Even More Brutality in the Provinces
But the Islamic Republic has always been a state that oppresses minorities: the Kurds to the west, the Baluchis in the southeast and Sunni Arabs in the south. Since the first day of the unrest in September, protests in the Kurdish areas as well as those in Sistan and Baluchestan Province have been fired on with live ammunition.
"I don’t want to use the term 'state of war,'" says Ardalan, "because in a war, both sides are armed. But we only have bricks that we pile up to form barricades, while the other side is heavily armed."
Ardalan’s accounts cannot be independently verified, but they are consistent with the stories told by other sources. His identity is known to DER SPIEGEL. "We have established a network for the transportation of medical supplies and bandages," he continues. "We use side streets. All the main roads are monitored. At the roadblocks, they search for medical supplies. If you have any with you, you are arrested."
By law, the Red Crescent – the Muslim world’s version of the Red Cross – would be responsible for helping everyone. "Instead, those who are injured by the Revolutionary Guards are immediately taken to prison,” says Ardalan. "When they arrested me, they broke my fingers." Everyone knows the notorious Evin Prison in Tehran, he says, "but far worse things happen in prisons in Kurdistan, more torture." That, he says, is the regime’s method for spreading fear.
Normal life on the streets has been extinguished, says Ardalan. On the one hand, fear has translated into a de facto curfew. "I know women who have been shot simply because they wanted to go out for some bread." On the other hand, almost all store owners are striking and people are boycotting the state-owned supermarkets. Even money is running short, he says. His account has been frozen and cash machines aren’t working. "There are no banknotes any more in Kurdistan!"
Lessons for the City
The brutality in the provinces is intended as a warning to the residents of larger cities in the heart of the country. But this time, the violence has actually triggered the opposite effect. "We sympathize with them. We understand that we are confronting the same enemy,” says a Tehran resident who asked to remain anonymous out of concern for her safety.
The old relationships between city dwellers and the rural population have changed, she says. "We can learn from them," the woman from Tehran says. "They have much more experience than we do when it comes to organizing street battles. How to immediately collect elsewhere when the first demonstration is crushed. How to organize help for the injured. How to transform a funeral into a rally."
In Iran, state institutions and, especially, the hundreds of thousands who are part of the Revolutionary Guard and their minions are holding firm, along with the huge number of private citizens who benefit from Iran’s parallel economy. The Revolutionary Guard has control of huge swaths of the economy: airports, oil terminals, hospitals and universities. And this parallel economy is nourished by the Western sanctions, resulting in an army of profiteers who would lose their privileges if the Islamic Republic were to collapse.
Afshon Ostovar, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey, California, and the author of a book about the Revolutionary Guard, believes the regime is approaching its end. "What we are seeing right now is a generational revolution, the younger generation against the regime," he says. He doesn’t want to predict whether it will be successful now, or only in one, two or five years. "The undoing of the Iranian regime has begun." With every young person who is killed, Ostovar says, the Supreme Leader is also losing the support of the victim’s cousins, aunts, uncles, parents and grandparents.
German-Iranian political scientist Ali Fathollah-Nejad believs it will ultimately depend on how workers respond. There have already been protests among contract workers in the oil and gas sector. Fathollah-Nejad says they are debating whether and when to join the uprising. He says that such a coalition of demonstrators and workers would have good chances for success. "They have something in common: They don’t believe that their lives will improve under this regime."
In Iran’s south, to be sure, where the largest oil fields are located, there have thus far been fewer demonstrations than in Tehran or Kurdistan. But strikes and protests are on the rise there as well. Workers at an oil refinery, long-haul truck drivers and employees of the automobile producer Bahman Motor in Tehran are demanding change – specifically wages that they can survive on.
Ultimately, the slogan used thus far in these protests – Woman, Life, Freedom – could soon be expanded to include another word: Bread
Den otroliga Riddle Nord Stream-affären
"Jag tror inte att Putin är en Hitler-liknande person", svarar Kissinger. "Han kommer från Dostojevskij."
”Portafolio” Henry Kisssinger, Manhattan, NY, July 27, 2018.
“Avstå från att frestas att återuppliva ett projekt med en korrupt geopolitisk och omoralisk historia som har försatt den globala ekonomin i en kris utan någon utväg. ”
Vem är ansvarig för den mänskliga och ekonomiska katastrof som världen befinner sig i?
image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.
Tusentals civila dödsfall och 6,6 miljoner flyktingar: Beräkning av krigets kostnader
Sex månader efter Rysslands invasion av Ukraina är de mänskliga och ekonomiska konsekvenserna oöverskådliga. Men de siffror som har kommit fram ger en dyster bild.
A) Dag efter dag i 181 dagar blir den dystra boken över Rysslands invasion av Ukraina längre med varje missilattack, skottlossning och rapport om grymheter.
B) Ukrainska civila har betalat ett högt pris: 5 587 personer har bekräftats döda, och det verkliga antalet tros vara tiotusentals. Antalet flyktingar har överskridit 6,6 miljoner.
C) De militära förlusterna har varit tunga på båda sidor, med cirka 9 000 ukrainare och så många som 25 000 ryssar som uppges ha dödats.
D) Ukraina har förlorat kontrollen över 20 procent av sitt territorium till ryska styrkor och deras ombud under de senaste åren.
E) Förstörelsen har redan kostat Ukraina minst 113,5 miljarder dollar, och landet kan behöva mer än 200 miljarder dollar för att återuppbygga.
F) Givarländerna har lovat att ge Ukraina sammanlagt mer än 83 miljarder dollar.
G) Ukrainas jordbruksproduktion och andra länder som är beroende av den har drabbats hårt. Även om spannmålsfartyg återigen är på väg är hungerkrisen i världen allvarlig.
Yuhas, Alan. “Thousands of Civilian Deaths and 6.6 Million Refugees: Calculating the Costs of War.” NYT, www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-toll.html. Accessed 24 Aug. 2022.
Hur kommer läckorna i Nord Stream att påverka klimatet?
Tysklands federala miljöbyrå uppskattade att läckorna kommer att leda till utsläpp av cirka 7,5 miljoner ton koldioxidekvivalenter - cirka 1 procent av Tysklands årliga utsläpp. Myndigheten konstaterade också att det inte finns några "tätningsmekanismer" längs rörledningarna, "så med all sannolikhet kommer hela innehållet i rören att läcka ut".
Nord Stream Gas Pipeline Leaks Lead to ‘Significant Climate Damage’ - Environment Agency.” Clean Energy Wire, 29 Sept. 2022.Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.
3.8.3.7 Nödavstängning
Landningsanläggningarna i Ryssland och Tyskland kommer att ha lokala system för nödstopp.
Systemen kommer att utlösas i händelse av att anläggningens branddetektion, gasdetektion eller
upptäckt av läckage i rörledningar. En fullständig riskanalys har genomförts för systemet.
Hur lång tid det tar innan ett läckage upptäcks beror, föga förvånande, på vilken typ av
av läckagesystem, parametrarna för den rörledning som övervakas och storleken på läckaget.
läckan. Typiskt sett kan det ta flera timmar att upptäcka en liten läcka på <10 cm. En större läcka på >10
cm kan upptäckas på så kort tid som några minuter.
Om en betydande farlig händelse inträffar, t.ex. en brand eller ett gasläckage, kommer rörledningen att
stängas av omedelbart (eller med en mycket kort tidsfördröjning). I händelse av ett läckage kommer nödsystemet att
stängningstiden för ventilen för nödstopp beror på läckans storlek och tiden för upptäckt av läckan.
Den tid det tar för nödstoppsventilen att stänga är cirka 3 sekunder.
per tum av rörledningen, dvs. cirka 150 sekunder (eftersom rörledningen är 48 tum).
Eftersom det inte finns några ventiler längs sträckan är det inte möjligt att stänga av delar av rörledningen. Detta innebär att vid en läcka och efterföljande avstängning kan vatten tränga in i
rörledningen.
Moskva, slutet av november 1986, nära den ryska vintern…
Landningen i Moskva på den dystra Sheremetyevo-flygplatsen var nervöst. När man klev av planet mötte man ett gigantiskt mausoleum av marmor i en gravskicklig tystnad. Sovjetiska soldater bevakade ständigt passagerarna, vilket skapade skrämsel och rädsla. Att stå i den där migrationskön i väntan på att få tillträde till landet var en riktig mardröm. Att känna hur man upprepade gånger blev auskulterad av den oförskräckta migrationshandläggaren blev den mest obehagliga upplevelse man kunde tänka sig. Efter några timmar var det dags att gå vidare till den andra punkten av påtryckningar: kontroll av bagage och alla personliga tillhörigheter. Det var en procedur som den sovjetiska tullpersonalen utförde mest noggrant. De inspekterade allting. Röntgenutrustningen i den flygterminalen skapade en perfekt scenografi för en science fiction-film. Så var också överenskommelsen. När dessa två omöjliga uppdrag väl var utförda gränsade önskan att ta sig till hotellet till vansinne. Kroppen längtade efter ett varmt bad. Jag kände akut ångest över att befinna mig i ett rum; febern och kylan som denguefebern gav upphov till knockade mig.
När jag anlände till hotellet fick jag veta att det inte fanns några lediga rum. "Vad?" Jag frågade något upprört. "Här har jag kupongen som visar att jag har bokat ett rum och att det har betalats." Leonid Brezjnevs era hade avslutats för några år sedan, och med honom försvann också en av de mest totalitära perioderna i Sovjetunionen. Omvänt främjade Jurij Andropov många reformer som betonade ekonomisk öppenhet och avskaffade den stora byråkratiska apparaten, även om hans mandatperiod var kort. Konstantin Tjernenko, hans efterträdare, fortsatte på samma linje. Hans mandatperiod varade dock i ett år och månader. Sedan, 1985, när Michail Gorbatjov kom till makten, inleddes perestrojkan och förändringarna gick in i en mer accelererande fas. Vid tiden för min korta vistelse i Moskva 1986 var det fortfarande komplicerat att förnimma någon väsentlig förändring i Sovjetunionen. När jag satt i hotellets lobby och väntade på någon lösning på problemet fick jag ett samtal om att de redan hade ett rum åt mig. Jag fick också kuponger för olika snacks. Jag gick genast upp till sjätte våningen, där mitt rum fanns. När jag kom ut ur hissen fanns det en reception med en äldre dam, märkbart överviktig, med en blommig halsduk på huvudet, en sorglig grå tröja och sliten som regimen, naturligtvis med en fientlig attityd, som jag gissar måste ha varit åtminstone från KGB. Hennes uppgift var att kontrollera ditt pass varje gång du kom in i eller lämnade rummet. När jag skulle hämta nyckeln såg hon fast på mig, och utan sympati sade hon: "Det finns inget varmvatten." "Vad menar du?" Jag frågade henne med en blandning av förvåning och ilska. "Nej, det finns inget varmvatten", upprepade hon med en godtycklig ton. I slutet av november är det i Moskva omöjligt att bada i kallt vatten. Vattnet kommer ut ur kranarna som is. "Fungerar bastun?" Jag frågade och letade efter ett alternativ. "Ja", svarade hon kaxigt. Det var det bästa alternativet jag kunde vända mig till i min desperation efter ett bad efter en resa som varade i mer än tjugoåtta timmar.
Den framstående gentlemannen och tidigare förbundskanslern Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schröder (född den 7 april 1944 i Blomberg, Freistaat Lippe, Nazityskland) har inte haft turen att känna till den verklighet som det stoiska ryska folket lever i. Han (herr Schröder) har levt under de gyllene kupolerna i Moskvas Amur-citadell med ett överflöd av kaviar och Beluga-vodka, stackare!!!!
Verkligheten är att Fjodor Dostojevskijs livsfilosofi (född den 11 november 1821 i Moskva, Ryssland, död den 9 februari 1881 i S:t Petersburg) inte är en del av herr Schröders själ.
Varför bestämde jag mig för att börja med den här historien, artikeln och Henry Alfred Kissingers (född den 27 maj 1923 i Tyskland) påstående om president Vladimir Putins personlighet?
"Jag tror inte att Putin är en Hitler-liknande person", svarar Kissinger. "Han kommer från Dostojevskij."
El Tiempo, Casa Editorial. “Henry Kissinger: ‘Estamos En Un Período Muy, Muy Grave.’” Portafolio.co, www.portafolio.co/internacional/henry-kissinger-estamos-en-un-periodo-muy-muy-grave-519509.Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.Vad menar Henry Kissinger med detta uttalande om president Vladimir Putin?
Kissinger svarar på hans påstående på följande sätt: "Hans huvudpoäng är att västvärlden felaktigt antog, under åren innan Putin annekterade Krim, att Ryssland skulle anta en ordning baserad på västerländska regler. Nato missförstod Rysslands djupt rotade längtan efter respekt. Du menar att vi provocerade Putin... fallet Vladimir Putin och hans föreställning om Ryssland, och all denna efterföljande invasion och annektering som pågår i Ukraina. Enligt uppgifter är den ryske starke mannens två favoritförfattare Leo Tolstoj och Fjodor Dostojevskij. Båda verkar ha ställt honom inför ett val: att tro på den senares föreställning om Ryssland som ett slags slavisk civilisatorisk kraft som ska påtvingas underlägsna varelser, och Tolstojs mer humanistiska synsätt. Och det verkar som om Putin har valt det förstnämnda."
För att försöka vara så objektiv som möjligt i detta transcendentala ämne definierar Fjodor Dostojevskij människans liv på följande sätt: "Människan måste förtjäna sin lycka genom att lida: Det är landets lag.
Intressant är Henry Kissingers reflektion över ett kanske antropologiskt beteende (som kombinerar en intellektuell biografi med en förklaring av metodologiska principer). Här är det nödvändigt att vara specifik inte för det ädla ryska folket utan för dess ledare om den "slaviska civiliserande kraft som måste påtvingas underlägsna varelser". Vad som nu är säkert är att det ryska folket, sedan dess imperiala förflutna, som lever på det sovjetsocialistiska systemet och den nuvarande regimen, har varit tvunget att överleva inom ett samhälle som alienerar uppryckandet av den individuella identiteten genom den grymma exilpolitiken. Det vill säga, den avsiktliga migrationen av dess invånare till avlägsna områden som är kulturellt annorlunda än deras födelseort. Fjodor Dostojevskij kände till de svårigheter som Sibirien innebar för hans hälsa med irreparabla skador och därmed för hans liv. Putin, även om han inte har levt i exil, levde enligt lagen om den starkaste för att överleva i S:t Petersburgs undre värld.
Svaret är att jag ville skapa en parallell mellan dessa två föregångare. Under min resa till Sovjetunionen i november 1986 var det auktoritära kommunistiska systemet intakt. Och i intervjun i tidningen Portafolio med Henry Kissinger i den franska restaurangen Jubilee på centrala Manhattan i New York den 27 juli 2018, efter att ha träffat president Putin 17 gånger, definierade Kissinger honom som "en slavisk civiliserande kraft som måste påtvinga sig underlägsna varelser". Detta påstående kan tolkas på två sätt: i slutändan är det samma sak, på grund av ett överlägsenhetskomplex skulle den första vara inkarnationen av en tsar, och den andra, på grund av hans konspiratoriska karaktär, den av en sibirisk varg som är hungrig efter hämnd. Och det finns mer att berätta om bakgrunden till Nord Stream-kontraktet.
I 50 år har rysk gas försörjt tyska hushåll och företag med energi. Redan från början var handelsförbindelsen kontroversiell, men den skapade djupa ekonomiska band mellan de två länderna.
Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.
"Vi måste tala om de miljarder och åter miljarder dollar som betalas till det land som vi ska skydda oss från", sade han.
Editorial staff, BBC News World, 11 July 2018
Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.
BORIS BLAST...
Boris Johnson hävdar att Tyskland ville att Ukraina skulle FOLD snabbt efter Rysslands invasion - men säger att det skulle ha varit en katastrof.
The Sun,
Published: 9:21, 23 Nov 2022
Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.Första sammanfattningen:
ü Det finns betydande brister i systemet för säkerhet i rörledningar. Det finns t.ex. inga "tätningsmekanismer" längs med rörledningarna, vilket innebär att allt innehåll sannolikt kommer att läcka ut.
ü En beskrivning i breda penseldrag av det sovjetiska kommunistiska systemet i november 1986 har lämnats.
ü Genom Fjodor Dostojevskijs livsfilosofi har vi undersökt vissa aspekter av det ryska ledarskapets mänskliga genus i dess vision av politisk makt.
ü Vi försökte tolka specifika uttalanden av Henry Kissinger om president Vladimir Putins karaktär.
ü Den tidigare presidenten Donald Trumps påståenden om Nord Stream 2-projektet till den tidigare tyska förbundskanslern Angela Merkel införlivade USA:s idé.
ü Rysk gas har gjorts tillgänglig för Tyskland i 50 år.
ü Boris Johnson påstår att Tyskland ville att Ukraina snabbt skulle lägga sig efter Rysslands invasion - men han säger att det skulle ha blivit en katastrof.
Germán & Co
Etik och integritet är grunden för att producera fria och ärliga texter, och samarbeta med denna strävan...
“Den ryska aggressionen har på ett flagrant sätt kränkt suveräniteten och territoriet för en oberoende europeisk nation, Ukraina, och detta gör våra allierade i Östeuropa nervösa och hotar vår vision av ett Europa som är helt, fritt och i fred. Och det verkar hota de framsteg som gjorts sedan det kalla krigets slut.
Den långsamma ekonomiska tillväxten i Europa, särskilt i söder, har gjort att miljontals människor är arbetslösa, inklusive en generation unga människor utan arbete som kanske ser på framtiden med minskande förhoppningar. Och alla dessa ihållande utmaningar har fått vissa att ifrågasätta om den europeiska integrationen kan bestå länge; om det kanske är bättre att separera sig och omarbeta några av de barriärer och lagar mellan nationer som fanns på 1900-talet.”
Den 20 februari 2014 inleddes den ryska militära operationen för att annektera den ukrainska halvön Krim, som pågick fram till den 18 mars samma år. Geografiskt sett har Ukraina spelat en viktig roll för Gazproms marknadsföring av naturgas. Denna position har gett landet ett förmånligt pris på den ryska gasmarknaden. Diskussionen om detta historiska faktum har dock fokuserat på Kremls expansionistiska politik genom Gazprom, vilket är logiskt. Ändå är det inte huvudfrågan i detta geopolitiska dilemma.
Om vi går djupare in i frågan, nio månader efter den militärkupp som Kreml underlättade i Ukraina (dvs. den 4 september 2015), tillkännagav Gazprom i ett pressmeddelande från Vladivostok att man undertecknat avtalet om att skapa det företag som ska driva den andra grenen av gasledningen Nord Stream 2: Nord Stream 2-avtalet har undertecknats. VLADIVOSTOK, den 4 september 2015 - Projektets aktieägare har undertecknat ett avtal om att bilda ett företag som ska driva Nord Stream II-gasledningen, rapporterade den ryska nyhetsbyrån RIA Novosti på fredagen. Gazprom kommer att ha 51 procent av aktierna i det nya bolaget, med namnet New European Pipeline AG. Det franska elbolaget Engie kommer att ha en andel på 9 procent och det tyska kemiföretaget BASF, den europeiska kraft- och gasfonden E.ON, det österrikiska olje- och gasbolaget OMV och Shell kommer att ha en andel på 10 procent vardera. I juni meddelade Gazprom att man för 9,9 miljarder euro kommer att förlänga Nord Stream-ledningen till havs som förbinder Europa med Ryssland och som planeras öka Rysslands gasflöde till Europa till 55 bcm (1,94 tcf) per år. "Nord Stream 2 kommer att fördubbla kapaciteten i vår direkta, toppmoderna gasleveransväg via Östersjön", sade Gazproms ordförande Alexey Miller till RIA Novosti vid Eastern Economic Forum, där avtalet undertecknades. "Det är viktigt att det främst är de nya gasvolymerna som kommer att efterfrågas i Europa på grund av den kontinuerliga minskningen av den inhemska produktionen".
Affärsförhandlingarna för att bilda det företag som skulle ansvara för Nord Stream 2-operationen pågick alltså samtidigt som förberedelserna för den militära operationen för invasionen av Krim pågick. Det är här som den stora frågan uppstår: Vilken information hade den förre förbundskanslern Gerhard Schröders store vän - överstelöjtnant kamrat Vladimir Vladimirovitj (Platov) Putin, en före detta KGB-agent, som 1984-1990, mot slutet av det kalla kriget, tjänstgjorde som spion i Dresden i f.d. Tyska demokratiska republiken - om att Tyskland, trots denna allvarliga geopolitiska milstolpe, inte skulle överge detta strategiska projekt för Kreml?
Jag tror inte att frågan är svår att besvara om man ser till president Vladimir Putins meritförteckning:
Vladimir Putin→→→→ år av informationsutbyte inom ramen för en lång "manlig" vänskap och Omerta-lagarna ←←←←Gerhard Schröder. Sedan är retoriken att överstelöjtnant Putin räknade all förstahandsinformation från förbundsdagen.
Med denna fasta överenskommelse skulle Vladimir Putin få en gasledning med en längd på cirka 1 200 km nedgrävd på 60-80 meters djup på internationellt vatten i Östersjön, där ingen, absolut ingen, skulle kunna göra något intrång på röret, som tillhör Moskvas citadell. Detta är Putins första seger i sin strategi att böja Europa genom att öka det giftiga beroendet av Gazprom, en utomordentlig schack matt för väst.
Hittills har president Vladimir Putins politik genomförts felfritt på en tysk motorväg utan hastighetsbegränsningar. Så långt, så bra - åtminstone för Kreml.
Gåtan:
Politisk risk avser de svårigheter som regeringar och företag kan ställas inför på grund av vad som brukar kallas politiska beslut - eller "varje politisk förändring som ändrar resultatet och det förväntade värdet och värdet av en ekonomisk åtgärd genom att förändra sannolikheten för att målen ska uppnås".
“Political Risks | MXB.” Political Risks | MXB, www.mexbrit.com/political-risks.
Laetitia Vancon for The New York Times
Bennhold, Katrin. “The Former Chancellor Who Became Putin’s Man in Germany.” New York Time, 23 Apr. 2022, www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html.
Kreml var berett att sätta västvärlden i schack, och räknade med en ny invasion av Ukraina i kommandostil, en kortsiktig militär kampanj baserad på felaktiga militära antaganden. Slutligen, och förmodligen mest avgörande, skulle Tyskland trotsa utländska påtryckningar - särskilt från USA - och bevara starka förbindelser med Ryssland. Ingenting kunde vara längre från sanningen; det enda Putin provocerade med denna invasion var europeisk sammanhållning, trots Tysklands tveksamhet i början av denna kris. Efter att ha misslyckats med sitt försök att splittra Europa använder president Vladimir Putin Gazprom, närmare bestämt Nord Stream-ledningen, för att begränsa gasförsörjningen - ett förödande vapen för den globala ekonomin. Effekterna av denna grymhet mot mänskligheten och ekonomin är välkända.
Hur godkändes detta geopolitiskt farliga projekt?
Vad är det som ligger bakom det enorma löftet om att
Nord inte återvänder och den gåta som det innebär?
Gorko… Till det olyckliga äktenskapet Putin-Schröder...
News round-up, Twesday, November 29, 2022.
In China, Xi Jinping's absolute power is being challenged, Le Monde
"The Regime's Legitimacy Is Eroding"Iran Protests Continue Despite Brutal Repression, Spiegel
Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.
AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest
“‘The same poison as in Hong Kong’”
Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…
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Editor's Pick:
China Protests Over ‘Zero Covid’ Follow Months of Economic Pain
President Xi Jinping’s unbending approach to the pandemic has hurt businesses and strangled growth, squeezing the world’s second-largest economy.Give this article
Police presence was heavy on Sunday in an area of Shanghai where protesters had gathered the night before.Credit...The New York Times
By Daisuke Wakabayashi, Olivia Wang and Joy Dong
Nov. 29, 2022Updated 6:30 a.m. ET
The toll of China’s unwavering approach to fighting Covid has rippled through the world’s second-largest economy for months: Youth unemployment reached a record 20 percent, corporate profits sagged, and economic growth fell well below Beijing’s own projections.
The economic pain has intensified the pressure to ease pandemic restrictions to salvage the flagging economy and restore some semblance of normal life. Frustration with the government’s zero-tolerance Covid strategy, which has failed to prevent a big jump in cases, escalated over the weekend as a population tired of unpredictable lockdowns, extended quarantines and mass testing erupted into protests. Smaller, scattered demonstrations continued on Monday.
The current Covid outbreak, the most widespread since the start of the pandemic in 2020, has painted Xi Jinping, China’s president, into a corner. He has refused to budge on the government’s strict Covid approach. If he loosens restrictions and infections skyrocket, there is the risk of mass casualties and an overwhelmed health care system. But keeping the current policies in place and limiting infections with widespread lockdowns would inflict further damage to an already slowing economy.
“The government has no good options at this point,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics, a research firm. “Whatever they do, it’s hard to see how there won’t be significant restrictions imposed across large parts of the country, which is going to have a huge impact on weakening the economy.”
More than 80 cities in China are now battling infections compared with 50 cities in the spring, when a smaller surge of infections prompted an eight-week lockdown in Shanghai and set the economy on its slowest pace of annual growth in decades. These cities account for half of China’s economic activity and ship 90 percent of its exports, according to Capital Economics.
Earlier this month, China announced plans to ease some pandemic policies, fueling speculation that it was the beginning of a transition to phase out its “zero-Covid” policy, much to the delight of investors who sent shares of Chinese companies soaring. But as the number of infections rose, the government reverted to a familiar playbook and held firm to what it has said all along: China is trying to eradicate Covid, not learning to live with it.
In a series of editorials in state media starting on Sunday, Beijing said that China still needed to “maintain strategic focus” in combating Covid, but it urged officials around the country to avoid extreme measures such as blocking fire exits or barricading communal doors during quarantine. It stressed the need for local officials to adhere to policy tweaks meant to “optimize” existing Covid policies and limit disruptions to people and businesses.
Even so, the authorities on Monday night deployed additional security to discourage another night of protests.
The growing unrest has threatened to jeopardize China’s hard-earned reputation as the world’s factory floor. Last week, workers upset about unpaid Covid bonuses and poor quarantine protocols rioted and clashed with police at a Chinese factory where Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn produces more than half of the world’s iPhones.
Andrew Fennell, an analyst who oversees China’s government credit ratings for Fitch, said the country’s uncompromising approach has “weighed heavily on the economy and elevated social tensions.” He said that he expects Beijing to relax the most restrictive measures under its zero-tolerance approach, such as citywide lockdowns, in 2023, but that many restrictions will remain in place because of relatively low vaccination rates among the elderly in China.
In a reflection of those low rates, China said on Tuesday that it would increase efforts to vaccinate its oldest citizens, a move experts see as a crucial precursor to reopening the economy.
Goldman Sachs estimated in a note on Monday that there was a 30 percent chance that China would abandon “zero Covid” before April as the central government is forced to “choose between more lockdowns and more Covid outbreaks.”
After the initial outbreak of Covid in 2020, China’s economy bounced back quickly. While the rest of the world remained in lockdown, China’s hard-line approach to keeping the coronavirus in check worked well and its economy roared to life. In particular, exports were a bright spot as Chinese factories manufactured many of the products that the rest of the world bought online during isolation. Last year, China’s economy grew by an impressive 8 percent.
Currently, many of China’s biggest trading partners are staring at a possible recession from runaway inflation, rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine. Domestically, the usually reliable pillars of real estate and high technology have fallen on hard times, and making more credit available to businesses has not jumpstarted the economy.
For small businesses, the recent outbreak is already sapping demand.
Cai Zhikang, a cake shop owner in Shenzhen, said corporate customers, the main source of his business, are starting to cancel orders more frequently. He said that a customer had scrapped a large corporate catering order exceeding $500 on Monday, a day after residents in the city in southeastern China staged a protest there over some of the latest restrictions.
Mr. Cai, 28, said that each wave of infections had brought more austerity from corporate customers who cut back on spending for employee treats to preserve their budgets. He said that he was also forced to close his shop for a month when Shenzhen imposed restrictions on the park where he operates his store. There is no point, he added, in planning ahead anymore because everything is dependent on whether Covid is spreading or not.
“If there is no Covid, I can definitely earn. When there is Covid, I cannot,” Mr. Cai said.
The impact has also spread to larger companies. A decline in overall profits at China’s industrial firms accelerated in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Profit in China’s 41 industrial sectors fell by 3 percent in the January to October period, a steeper decline compared with a 2.3 percent slide in January to September, numbers released on Sunday indicate.
China’s initial success in containing Covid started to crumble this year with the spread of the more infectious Omicron variant. The government projected a modest 5.5 percent growth for 2022 in March, several weeks before a sharp rise in infections pushed Shanghai into lockdown and brought the economy to a grinding halt. A series of smaller subsequent outbreaks has continued to test the limits of China’s zero-tolerance strategy, putting the government’s economic growth target out of reach.
On Monday, Nomura, a Japanese brokerage, cut its forecast for fourth-quarter economic growth to 2.4 percent from an earlier estimate of 2.8 percent, citing “a slow, painful and bumpy road to reopening.” It also lowered its gross domestic product prediction for 2023 to a 4 percent increase from a previous estimate of 4.3 percent.
A slowdown in the economy is already apparent to Emma Wang, 39, who owns a store selling handbags and suitcases in a shopping mall in Langzhong, a city in Sichuan Province where there are a handful of infections.
When she opened her store two years ago, business was steady and profitable. But more recently, people have started avoiding malls even though the city is not under lockdown. She is considering moving her business online to sell off her inventory.
“In the pandemic, there are no customers,” said Ms. Wang. “It’s difficult to sell even one bag.”
Compounding the problems for the mother of two is that her husband, who works for a food manufacturer whose business also has been disrupted, has not been paid by his employer for a few months.
“We have a mortgage and credit card loans,” she said. “The situation is not improving and it really upsets me.”
In China, Xi Jinping's absolute power is being challenged
News analysis
Frédéric Lemaître
Beijing (China) correspondent
China's children love their country, writes Le Monde's correspondent in Beijing. But restricting their freedom only leaves them craving for democracy.
Published on November 29, 2022 at 11h40, updated at 12h59 on November 29, 2022 Time to 5 min. Lire en français
During a Shanghai demonstration against China's zero-Covid policy on November 27, 2022. AP
Like any self-respecting dictator, Xi Jinping is convinced that whoever holds the party holds the country. The facts have long proven him right. With its 96 million members (about one adult in 12), the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unparalleled in the world, physically present in the smallest neighborhoods and the smallest businesses in this continental country. Selected among the best pupils and students, its members constitute a technocratic elite that manages China according to Beijing's orders.
In President Xi Jinping's dream world, the CCP knows what is good for the people, since it itself comes from them. And since it makes the right decisions, the people are therefore grateful. One of the sentences he uttered at the 19th CCP congress in 2017 sums up his thinking quite well: "Party, state, military affairs, civil affairs, education, east, west, south, north, center – the party runs everything." His speech on October 16, at the opening of the 20th congress, is equally fascinating. The criticism of his predecessors occupied an infinitely greater place there than the management of Covid-19.
All evils come from abroad
The party was mentioned more than 140 times, far more than any other term. Similarly, following the congress, Mr. Xi did not go to a place symbolic of the China of 2022 to meet his people. Instead, he took the six other CCP leaders to the farthest reaches of Shaanxi, where Mao waited for his time from 1935 to 1949, in a region that is becoming a communist pilgrimage site. It's far from the China of tomorrow, but also from the China of today, which suffers from the zero-Covid policy, unemployment and bankrupt property developers.
Power isolates and absolute power isolates absolutely. Nothing illustrates this better than the demonstrations against the zero-Covid policy over the last few weeks and against the CCP dictatorship over the last few days. When Mr. Xi inspects a province – a communist leader does not "visit," he "inspects" – everything is organized so that he does not encounter any discontent.
A provincial teacher recently recounted how, one evening around 10 pm, the school principal called all the teachers to be present at 7 am because of an "important event." The next day, each teacher, accompanied by a policeman, had to go to a district in the city and give the order to each inhabitant to close and stay away from their windows. Still without knowing the reason for this strange instruction. It was only a few hours later that she realized that Mr. Xi was about to "inspect" the area and meet with a few hand-picked residents.
Similarly, in April 2021, the Chinese leader visited Tsinghua University, the most prestigious university in Beijing. After praising the experts "guided by Marxism," he left, greeted, according to the photos, by hundreds of young people waving small red flags. He probably concluded that the elite of tomorrow was satisfied with his standing. The problem is that these are the same students who, on November 27, demonstrated, sang "The Internationale" and demanded more democracy.
The young people of Generation Z are all the more courageous because many do not know what happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989
It is believed that leaders are better informed than the common man. This is not true. The journalists of the China News Agency have two functions: to publish articles intended to spread the official truth among the population and, at the same time, to transmit "real information" to Beijing.
For example, in Wuhan in January 2020, the same reporters explained to the people that the new virus could not be transmitted from human to human while writing the opposite to the leaders. According to a recent Associated Press investigation, the most important dispatches used to land on the prime minister's desk. But Mr. Xi demanded to receive them directly. As a result, journalists no longer dare to bring up bad news.
In the story of the Chinese leader, all of China's ills come from abroad, from a West that wanted to "humiliate" it for more than a century (1839-1949) before the CCP "liberated" it. It's the same West that incited the Arab Spring and the color revolutions starting in 2011, just before Mr. Xi came to supreme power and saved the CCP and the country.
'The same poison as in Hong Kong'
Since this weekend, this little nationalist tune can be heard again. "It's the same poison as in Hong Kong: young people who don't have local characteristics, but have a Taiwanese or Hong Kong accent and a Western appearance – a typical style of the color revolutions," denounced a blogger from Fudan University. "The demonstrations hurt our national solidarity and strengthen our enemies from within and outside," said Li Guangman, another well-known nationalist blogger, who also denounced the Chinese pharmaceutical laboratories, which are private and therefore corrupted by the West. Since Monday, in some cities, the police have been checking young people's cell phones and removing Western apps.
The CCP knows how to crack down on protesters through arrests and intimidation. In the coming days and weeks, the families of the protesters will be visited by the police and told that, in the interests of everyone, they should keep a closer eye on their children.
But the regime is clearly worried by this movement that it did not see coming. "With the relaxation of pandemic controls and the monitoring of the measures [adopted], public sentiment will calm down. I can make an absolute prediction: China will not fall into chaos or [get out] of control," wrote Hu Xijin, one of the regime's top propagandists, on Twitter.
One option for the government would be to relax the zero-Covid policy, while presenting it as a "unique success in the world" and, at the same time, to crack down on protesters, strengthen censorship on social media and increase pressure on teachers. In recent days, the media have been putting more emphasis on the Omicron variant's low-mortality rate and, as Li Guangman's article shows, have found a new scapegoat: the pharmaceutical companies. "If the pandemic is to be controlled, the mess with PCR testing must be stopped," wrote The Health Daily on November 29.
A desire for the West
Beyond the health policy, the weekend demonstrations showed that, despite the propaganda, a segment of the youth is ready to fight in the name of human rights and those values that the regime continues to define as purely "Western."
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Born after 2000, the young people of Generation Z are all the more courageous because a significant number of them know little or nothing about what happened in Tiananmen Square in June 1989.
Xi Jinping's children are both nationalistic and liberal. They love China and are proud of its successes, but they also want to be able to listen to Korean K-pop, watch NBA basketball games and see Chinese or foreign films that move them. By restricting their freedoms and pursuing an economic policy that makes their lives more difficult, Mr. Xi is awakening in them a desire for rights and openness that in recent years seemed to have lost its power.
Frédéric Lemaître(Beijing (China) correspondent)
"The Regime's Legitimacy Is Eroding"Iran Protests Continue Despite Brutal Repression
The uprising against the Islamist dictatorship in Iran is entering a new phase and the regime is doing all it can to survive. For how much longer can the mullahs cling to power?
By Anne Armbrecht, Julia Amalia Heyer, Muriel Kalisch, Mina Khani, Maximilian Popp, Christoph Reuter, Omid Rezaee und Özlem Topçu
25.11.2022, 17.49 Uhr
There isn’t a single place where she is safe from the regime’s henchmen, says Anoush, not even in her dreams.
It has been just over a month since DER SPIEGEL first spoke with Anoush, a teacher from the Iranian capital of Tehran in her mid-20s. At the time, the protests that erupted following the September death of the young Kurdish woman Jina Mahsa Amini had already spread throughout the country. Anoush says she began taking part in the demonstrations from the very beginning. Now, she has again decided to share her experiences, using long chat messages to do so. She has, however, changed the service she uses: She no longer feels that WhatsApp is secure enough.
DER SPIEGEL 48/2022
The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 48/2022 (November 26th, 2022) of DER SPIEGEL.
The regime, she says, has drastically ratcheted up the pressure. The terror, she says, is everywhere, with only a fraction of it making it into the media. An acquaintance of hers, she says, was raped in prison after being arrested, with the guards having fired at her genitals with paintball guns. "Since then, I have been having a recurring nightmare of being raped myself," she says.
Despite the violence, people in Tehran and elsewhere in the country are continuing to take to the streets. Their primary focus this week has been the massacres in the Kurdish areas of the country. It is difficult, however, to determine where the demonstrations are taking place and how large they are since the internet has been blocked in many parts of the country.
"We cry ourselves to sleep and wake up with new hope."
Anoush, a teacher from Tehran
The fight against the dictatorship is no longer finding its expression only in street protests, says Anoush. "We are screaming from the windows, even if security forces are opening fire more frequently. We are boycotting companies that advertise on state television. We are using cash instead of credit cards, collecting money for the people in the Kurdish areas. It is difficult to get help to them, but some people are trying. When we cross the streets, we give each other the V for victory sign. We cry ourselves to sleep and wake up with new hope."
Fewer Mass Protests, More Flashmobs
The uprising against the mullahs has been underway for 10 weeks, longer than most thought possible – Iranian rulers, the international community, and even the protesters themselves. And the shape of the resistance is changing, according to reports from inside Iran. There are fewer mass protests, but more flashmobs. Small groups from a specific district, sometimes even just a single residential building, suddenly emerge and begin shouting: "Down with the dictatorship!," filming the event and then melting away. The anger, however, has remained just as intense. "Nobody is staying quiet," says a 41-year-old from the middle class Tehran district of Sadeghiyeh.
For many Iranians, the uprising has become a part of their everyday lives. In the social networks, images and videos are being shared by tens of thousands of people. You can see videos from Tehran showing people from all walks of life – from young hipsters to elegant, middle-aged women – strolling through the city with their hair uncovered and greeting each other with fist bumps. You can see embracing and kissing in front of their city’s landmarks.
In Iran at the moment, says the Bern-based Orientalist Reinhard Schulze – who is speaking on the phone with friends across the country almost daily – the definition of Iranian nation is currently at stake. The central question: Who represents the Iranians?
"We do," insists the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which continues to have its opponents sentenced to death.
"We do," counter those who have risen up against the regime. Initially, their insurrection came merely in the form of refusing to cover their hair, instead tearing off their headscarves. Increasingly, though, the rebellion is becoming more militant, including the use of Molotov cocktails.
Schulze believes that the character of the Iranian nation has changed over the past several weeks. The population, he says, believes less and less in the promises made by the Islamic Republic and its institutions, which has been in power for 43 years. Day by day, people are demanding a more liberal model in which the rule of law should also play a strong role, says Schulze.
A Slap in the Face for Tehran
The fact that political power in the country is at stake could also be seen on Monday, when the Iranian national team at the World Cup in Qatar demonstratively kept their mouths closed during the playing of their country’s national anthem. It was a clear protest with the world watching – and a slap in the face of the rulers back in Tehran.
Most of the players on the Iranian national team had long been wary of making clear political statements, in part no doubt because of enormous pressure from the regime. On the eve of their departure for Doha, the players even met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Did they have a choice? Images of the meeting distributed by the president’s office show the team sitting on chairs in a circle around Raisi. The players are wearing suits, with several of them bowing, hands over their hearts. Many began referring to them as "Team Mullah," and people on the streets of Tehran lit fire to World Cup posters and pictures of the team.
"The regime's legitimacy is eroding."
Reinhard Schulze, Orientalist
One can only guess at why the national team players ultimately decided to stage their silent protest. They provided no explanation following the match. Were they simply waiting for the largest possible stage for their gesture? Or did the pressure, after months of doing nothing, simply grow too heavy? Did they have a bad conscience vis-à-vis the millions who had idolized them? Or was it merely a desire to be on the "right side" of history?
It also isn’t clear how the regime will react to the anthem boycott. Ahead of the tournament, the national players were reportedly threatened. But it seems unlikely that the regime will exert the same force on the national team as they do against demonstrators on the streets. The players, believes the U.S.-based women’s rights activist Maryam Shojaei, are simply too popular. Shojaei focuses her work on gaining access for women to sporting events in Iran. Speaking of the players on the Iranian World Cup team, she says: "They enjoy an immunity that normal people don’t have."
That's why for Shojaei and other activists, the gesture of the national team players didn’t go far enough. "If you want to see real courage, then look at the young women who are risking their lives at the protests."
It is nevertheless clear that a significant shift is underway in Iranian society. "The regime’s legitimacy is eroding. They are no longer recognized by their own people,” says Orientalist Schulze. He believes that the mullah’s grip on power has become fragile. Of course, he says, it is difficult for many in the population to believe that the mullahs might one day be swept from power. But there is also a significant amount of hope and plenty of courage.
In the beginning, he was part of a group of four, says 23-year-old paramedic Ardalan, from the Kurdish north of the country, who told his story over the course of dozens of voice messages. They were an emergency response team tending to injured demonstrators. "Two were murdered and one was arrested. I’m the only one left." He says that he too was taken to prison and tortured, and charged with "insulting the Prophet" because he had helped the wounded. He was then released on bail, "and I’m still going! We have to treat the wounds immediately, otherwise many of them won’t survive." Early on, he says, they were fired at with teargas and buckshot, but that hasn’t been the case for some time. Now, he says, the regime is using snipers and "dushkas," – large-caliber machine guns that are frequently mounted on the beds of pickups.
Ever since Ayatollah Khomeini grabbed power in 1979, Tehran has been propagating the fight against purported American imperialism and against the discrimination of Shiite Muslims in Saudi Arabia and in other Gulf autocracies.
Even More Brutality in the Provinces
But the Islamic Republic has always been a state that oppresses minorities: the Kurds to the west, the Baluchis in the southeast and Sunni Arabs in the south. Since the first day of the unrest in September, protests in the Kurdish areas as well as those in Sistan and Baluchestan Province have been fired on with live ammunition.
"I don’t want to use the term 'state of war,'" says Ardalan, "because in a war, both sides are armed. But we only have bricks that we pile up to form barricades, while the other side is heavily armed."
Ardalan’s accounts cannot be independently verified, but they are consistent with the stories told by other sources. His identity is known to DER SPIEGEL. "We have established a network for the transportation of medical supplies and bandages," he continues. "We use side streets. All the main roads are monitored. At the roadblocks, they search for medical supplies. If you have any with you, you are arrested."
By law, the Red Crescent – the Muslim world’s version of the Red Cross – would be responsible for helping everyone. "Instead, those who are injured by the Revolutionary Guards are immediately taken to prison,” says Ardalan. "When they arrested me, they broke my fingers." Everyone knows the notorious Evin Prison in Tehran, he says, "but far worse things happen in prisons in Kurdistan, more torture." That, he says, is the regime’s method for spreading fear.
Normal life on the streets has been extinguished, says Ardalan. On the one hand, fear has translated into a de facto curfew. "I know women who have been shot simply because they wanted to go out for some bread." On the other hand, almost all store owners are striking and people are boycotting the state-owned supermarkets. Even money is running short, he says. His account has been frozen and cash machines aren’t working. "There are no banknotes any more in Kurdistan!"
Lessons for the City
The brutality in the provinces is intended as a warning to the residents of larger cities in the heart of the country. But this time, the violence has actually triggered the opposite effect. "We sympathize with them. We understand that we are confronting the same enemy,” says a Tehran resident who asked to remain anonymous out of concern for her safety.
The old relationships between city dwellers and the rural population have changed, she says. "We can learn from them," the woman from Tehran says. "They have much more experience than we do when it comes to organizing street battles. How to immediately collect elsewhere when the first demonstration is crushed. How to organize help for the injured. How to transform a funeral into a rally."
In Iran, state institutions and, especially, the hundreds of thousands who are part of the Revolutionary Guard and their minions are holding firm, along with the huge number of private citizens who benefit from Iran’s parallel economy. The Revolutionary Guard has control of huge swaths of the economy: airports, oil terminals, hospitals and universities. And this parallel economy is nourished by the Western sanctions, resulting in an army of profiteers who would lose their privileges if the Islamic Republic were to collapse.
Afshon Ostovar, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey, California, and the author of a book about the Revolutionary Guard, believes the regime is approaching its end. "What we are seeing right now is a generational revolution, the younger generation against the regime," he says. He doesn’t want to predict whether it will be successful now, or only in one, two or five years. "The undoing of the Iranian regime has begun." With every young person who is killed, Ostovar says, the Supreme Leader is also losing the support of the victim’s cousins, aunts, uncles, parents and grandparents.
German-Iranian political scientist Ali Fathollah-Nejad believs it will ultimately depend on how workers respond. There have already been protests among contract workers in the oil and gas sector. Fathollah-Nejad says they are debating whether and when to join the uprising. He says that such a coalition of demonstrators and workers would have good chances for success. "They have something in common: They don’t believe that their lives will improve under this regime."
In Iran’s south, to be sure, where the largest oil fields are located, there have thus far been fewer demonstrations than in Tehran or Kurdistan. But strikes and protests are on the rise there as well. Workers at an oil refinery, long-haul truck drivers and employees of the automobile producer Bahman Motor in Tehran are demanding change – specifically wages that they can survive on.
Ultimately, the slogan used thus far in these protests – Woman, Life, Freedom – could soon be expanded to include another word: Bread