The Riddle Of Non-Nord Stream Return

“Refrain from being tempted to resurrect a project with a corrupt geopolitical and immoral history that has the global economy mired in a crisis with no way out. ”

— Germán & Co

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Who oversees the human and economic calamity in which the world is immersed?

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Thousands of Civilian Deaths and 6.6 Million Refugees: Calculating the Costs of War

Six months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the human and financial tolls are incalculable. But the figures that have emerged paint a bleak picture. NYT, By Alan Yuhas, 24, 2022

A) Day after day for 181 days, the grim ledger of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grows longer with each missile strike, burst of gunfire and report of atrocities.

B) Ukrainian civilians have paid a heavy price: 5,587 are confirmed dead, and the true number is believed to be in the tens of thousands. The number of refugees has surpassed 6.6 million.

C) Military losses have been heavy on both sides, with about 9,000 Ukrainians and as many as 25,000 Russians said to be killed.

D) Ukraine has lost control of 20 percent of its territory to Russian forces and their proxies in recent years.

E) The destruction has already cost Ukraine at least $113.5 billion, and it may need more than $200 billion to rebuild.

F) Donor nations have pledged to give Ukraine more than $83 billion in total.

G) Ukrainian agricultural production and other countries that depend on it have been hit hard. Even with grain ships on the move again, the world hunger crisis is dire.

Yuhas, Alan. “Thousands of Civilian Deaths and 6.6 Million Refugees: Calculating the Costs of War.” NYT, www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-toll.html. Accessed 24 Aug. 2022.

How will the Nord Stream leaks impact the climate?

Germany's Federal Environment Agency estimated the leaks will lead to emissions of around 7.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent — about 1 percent of Germany's annual emissions. The agency also noted there are no "sealing mechanisms" along the pipelines, "so in all likelihood the entire contents of the pipes will escape."

Nord Stream Gas Pipeline Leaks Lead to ‘Significant Climate Damage’ - Environment Agency.” Clean Energy Wire, 29 Sept. 2022.

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Maintenance - Nord Stream AG (nord-stream.com)

Moscow, late November 1986, on the Russian winter's eve...

Landing in Moscow at the gloomy Sheremetyevo airport was nerve-wracking.  Stepping off the plane, one encountered a gigantic marble mausoleum in a sepulchral silence. Soviet soldiers constantly watched the passengers, causing intimidation and fear.  Standing in that migration line waiting to be admitted to the country was a real nightmare.  To feel oneself being auscultated repeatedly by that undaunted migration officer became the most unpleasant experience one could imagine.  After a few hours, it was time to proceed to the second point of pressure: checking luggage and all personal belongings.  It was a procedure the Soviet customs staff performed most thoroughly.  They inspected everything.  The X-ray equipment in that air terminal created a perfect scenery for a science fiction movie.  So was the deal.  Once those two impossible missions were accomplished, the desire to get to the hotel bordered madness.  The body longed for a hot bath.  I felt acute anxiety about being in a room; the fever and the cold produced by dengue knocked me down.

Arriving at the hotel, I was informed that no rooms were available.  "What?" I asked, somewhat indignantly.  "Here I have the voucher indicating that I reserved a room and that it has been paid for."  The era of Leonid Brezhnev had ended a few years ago, and with him, one of the most totalitarian periods of the Soviet Union also vanished.  Conversely, Yuri Andropov promoted numerous reforms emphasising economic openness and eliminating the large bureaucratic apparatus, although his term of office was short.  Konstantin Chernenko, his successor, continued along the same lines.  However, his period lasted one year and months.  Then, in 1985, with Mikhail Gorbachev's coming to power, Perestroika began, and changes entered a more accelerated phase.  By the time of my brief stay in Moscow in 1986, it was still complicated to sense any substantial change in the Soviet Union.  Sitting in the hotel lobby, waiting for some solution to the problem, I got a call that they already had a room for me.  I also received coupons for various snacks. I immediately went up to the sixth floor, where my room was.  When I got out of the elevator, there was a desk with an elderly lady, noticeably overweight, with a floral scarf on her head, a sad grey sweater, and worn out like the regime, of course with a hostile attitude, who I guess must have been at least from the KGB.  Her task was to check your passport every time you entered or left the room.  When I was about to get the key, she looked at me fixedly, and without sympathy, she said: "There is no hot water."  "What do you mean?" I asked her, with a mixture of surprise and anger.  "No, there is no hot water," she repeated, with an arbitrary tone.  At the end of November, in Moscow, it is impossible to bathe in cold water.  The water comes out of the taps like ice.  "Does the sauna work?" I asked, looking for an alternative.  "Yes," she answered boldly.  It was the best option I could turn to in desperation for a bath after a journey that lasted more than twenty-eight hours.

The distinguished gentleman and former Chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schröder (born April 7, 1944, in Blomberg, Free State of Lippe, Nazi Germany), has not been fortunate enough to know the reality in which the Stoic Russian people live.  He (Mr. Schröder) has lived under the golden domes of Moscow's Amur citadel with an abundance of caviar and Beluga vodka, poor man!!!  

The reality is that the Philosophy of Life of Fyodor Dostoyevsky (born November 11, 1821, in Moscow, Russia; died February 9, 1881, in St. Petersburg) is not part of the soul of Mr. Schröder.

Why did I decide to start with this story, the article, and Mr. Henry Alfred Kissinger's (born May 27, 1923, in Germany) assertion about President Vladimir Putin's personality?

"I don't think Putin is a Hitler-like character," Kissinger replies. "He comes out of Dostoevsky."

El Tiempo, Casa Editorial. “Henry Kissinger: ‘Estamos En Un Período Muy, Muy Grave.’” Portafolio.co, www.portafolio.co/internacional/henry-kissinger-estamos-en-un-periodo-muy-muy-grave-519509.

Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.

What does Mr. Henry Kissinger mean by this statement about President Vladimir Putin?

Kissinger responds as follows to his assertion: "His key point is that the West wrongly assumed, in the years before Putin annexed Crimea, that Russia would adopt the order based on Western rules.  NATO misunderstood Russia's deep-seated yearning for respect.  You mean we provoked Putin... the case of Vladimir Putin and his imagination of Russia, and all this consequent invasion and annexation going on in Ukraine.  According to reports, the Russian strongman's two favorite writers are Leo Tolstoy and Fyodor Dostoevsky. Both, it seems, presented him with a choice: belief in the latter's notion of Russia as a kind of Slavic civilizing force to be imposed on inferior beings, and Tolstoy's more humanistic outlook.  And it seems that Mr. Putin has chosen the former." 

To try to be as objective as possible on this transcendental subject, Fyodor Dostoyevsky defines the life of the human being as follows: "Man must earn his happiness by suffering: It is the law of the land."

What is interesting is Mr. Henry Kissinger's reflection on perhaps anthropological behaviour (combining an intellectual biography with an explanation of methodological principles). Here it is necessary to be specific not of the noble Russian people but of its leaders about the "Slavic civilizing force that must be imposed on inferior beings."  Now, what is certain is that the Russian people, since their imperial past, subsisting on the Soviet socialist system and the current regime, have had to survive within a society alienating the uprooting of individual identity through the cruel policy of exile.  That is to say, the deliberate migration of its inhabitants to remote areas is culturally different from their birthplace.  Fyodor Dostoevsky knew the hardships of Siberia that affected his health with irreparable damage and, therefore, his life.  Putin, although he has not lived in exile, lived the law of the strongest to survive in the St. Petersburg underworld.

The answer is I wanted to make a parallel between these two antecedents.  That is, during my trip in November 1986 to the Soviet Union, the authoritarian communist system was intact.  And in the Portafolio magazine interview of Mr. Henry Kissinger in the French restaurant Jubilee in downtown Manhattan in New York on July 27, 2018, after meeting 17 times with President Putin, Mr. Kissinger defined him as "a Slavic civilizing force that must impose on inferior beings."  This assertion could be interpreted in two ways: in the end, it is the same thing, because of a superiority complex the first would be the incarnation of a czar, and the second, because of his conspiratorial character, that of a Siberian wolf hungry for revenge.  And there is more to the story of the background of the Nord Stream contract. 

For 50 years, Russian gas has powered German homes and businesses. From the start, the trade link was controversial, but it established deep economic ties between the two countries.

Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.

"We have to talk about the billions and billions of dollars that are being paid to the country we are supposed to protect ourselves from," he said.

Editorial staff, BBC News World, 11 July 2018

Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.

BORIS BLAST…

Boris Johnson claims Germany wanted Ukraine to FOLD quickly after Russia invasion – but says it would’ve been a disaster

The Sun,

Noa Hoffman,

Published: 9:21, 23 Nov 2022

Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.

First recap:

ü There are significant weaknesses in the pipeline safety system. For example, there are no "sealing mechanisms" along the pipelines, so all the contents will likely leak out.

ü A description in broad brushstrokes of the Soviet communist system in November 1986 has been provided.

ü Through Fyodor Dostoevsky's philosophy of life, we examined some aspects of the Russian leadership's human genesis in its vision of political power.

ü We attempted to interpret specific statements made by Mr Henry Kissinger about President Vladimir Putin's character.

ü Former President Donald Trump's claims about the Nord Stream 2 project to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel incorporated the idea of the United States.

ü Russian gas has been made available to Germany for 50 years.

ü Boris Johnson claims Germany wanted Ukraine to fold quickly after Russia's invasion – but he says it would've been a disaster.

Germán & Co

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“Russian aggression has flagrantly violated the sovereignty and territory of an independent European nation, Ukraine, and that unnerves our allies in Eastern Europe, threatening our vision of a Europe that is whole, free and at peace. And it seems to threaten the progress that’s been made since the end of the Cold War.
Slow economic growth in Europe, especially in the south, has left millions unemployed, including a generation of young people without jobs and who may look to the future with diminishing hopes. And all these persistent challenges have led some to question whether European integration can long endure; whether you might be better off separating off, redrawing some of the barriers and the laws between nations that existed in the 20th century.”

— “Remarks by President Obama in Address to the People of Europe.” whitehouse.gov, 25 Apr. 2016.

On February 20, 2014, the Russian military operation to annex the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea began, which lasted until March 18 of the same year.  Geographically, Ukraine has played an essential role in marketing natural gas for Gazprom.  This position has given it a preferential price on the Russian gas market.  However, the discussion about this historical fact has focused on the Kremlin's expansionist policy through Gazprom, which makes sense.  Still, it is not the main issue in this geopolitical dilemma.

If we go deeper into the matter, nine months after the military coup facilitated by the Kremlin in Ukraine (i.e., on September 4, 2015), Gazprom announced in a press release from Vladivostok the signing of the agreement creating the company that will operate the second branch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline: Nord Stream 2 agreement signed. VLADIVOSTOK, September 4, 2015 – Project shareholders have signed a contract to establish a company to operate the Nord Stream II pipeline, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported on Friday.  Gazprom will hold a 51-percent stake in the new company, dubbed New European Pipeline AG.  French electric company Engie will have a 9-percent stake, and German chemicals company BASF, European power and gas fund E.ON, Austrian oil and gas company OMV, and Shell will each hold a 10-percent stake.  In June, Gazprom announced a €9.9-billion offshore extension to the Nord Stream pipeline connecting Europe to Russia, planned to increase Russia's gas flow to Europe to 55 bcm (1.94 tcf) per year.  "Nord Stream 2 will double the throughput of our direct, state-of-the-art gas supply route via the Baltic Sea," Gazprom chairman Alexey Miller said to RIA Novosti at the Eastern Economic Forum, where the deal was signed.  "It is important that those are mostly the new gas volumes, which will be sought for in Europe due to the continuous decline in its domestic production."

Thus, the business negotiations for forming the company that would be in charge of the Nord Stream 2 operation were in progress simultaneously with the preparation of the military operation for the invasion of Crimea. It is here that the big question arises: What information did the great friend of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder – Lieutenant Colonel, Comrade Vladimir Vladimirovich (Platov) Putin, a former KGB agent, who from 1984 to 1990, towards the end of the Cold War, served as a spy in Dresden in the former German Democratic Republic – have that despite this serious geopolitical milestone, Germany would not abandon this strategic project for the Kremlin?

I think the question is not difficult to answer if one considers the resume of President Vladimir Putin:

Vladimir Putin→→→→ year of information exchange in the context of a long “male” friendship and the Laws of Omerta ←←←←Gerhard Schröder.  Then, the retort is that Lt. Col. Putin counted all the first-hand information from the Bundestag.

With this firm agreement, Vladimir Putin would have a gas pipeline with a length of about 1200 km buried at a depth of 60 to 80 metres in international waters of the Baltic Sea, where no one, absolutely no one, could have any intrusion on the pipe, the property of the citadel of Moscow.  This is Putin's first victory in his strategy to bend Europe by increasing the toxic dependence on Gazprom, an extraordinary checkmate to the West.

Until now, President Vladimir Putin's policy has been flawlessly executed on a German expressway with no speed restrictions. So far, so good – at least for the Kremlin.

The riddle:

Political risk refers to the difficulties that governments and businesses may face because of what are commonly referred to as political decisions - or "any political change that alters the outcome and the expected value and value of an economic action by modifying the probability of achieving the objectives."

“Political Risks | MXB.” Political Risks | MXB, www.mexbrit.com/political-risks.

Laetitia Vancon for The New York Times

Bennhold, Katrin. “The Former Chancellor Who Became Putin’s Man in Germany.” New York Time, 23 Apr. 2022, www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html.

To the article

The Kremlin was prepared to checkmate the West, counting on a new commando-style invasion of Ukraine, a short-term military campaign based on mistaken military assumptions. Finally, and probably most crucially, Germany would defy foreign pressure – particularly from the United States – and preserve strong relations with Russia. Nothing could be farther from the truth; the only thing Putin provoked with this invasion was European cohesiveness, notwithstanding Germany's hesitancy at the start of this crisis. After failing in his attempt to split Europe, President Vladimir Putin is using Gazprom, more specifically the Nord Stream pipeline, to limit gas supply – a devastating weapon for the global economy. The effects of this atrocity against humanity and the economy are well known.

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1. How was this geopolitically dangerous project approved?

2. What's up with the tremendous promise over Nord's non-return and the riddle it presents?

3. Nobody is in jail. Why?

Gorko! To the ill-fated Putin-Schröder marriage…

News round-up, Friday, November 25, 2022.

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“Allies or not?
Despite the energy disagreements, it wasn’t until Washington announced a $369 billion industrial subsidy scheme to support green industries under the Inflation Reduction Act that Brussels went into full-blown panic mode.
“The Inflation Reduction Act has changed everything,” one EU diplomat said. “Is Washington still our ally or not?””

— POLITICO EU

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Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…

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Editor's Pick:

Europe accuses US of profiting from war

EU officials attack Joe Biden over sky-high gas prices, weapons sales and trade as Vladimir Putin’s war threatens to destroy Western unity.

The Ukrainian flag and coat of arms is waved in front of the White House in Washington, DC | MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images

BY BARBARA MOENS, JAKOB HANKE VELA AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI

NOVEMBER 24, 2022 7:09 PM CET

Nine months after invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is beginning to fracture the West. 

Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer. 

“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO. 

The explosive comments — backed in public and private by officials, diplomats and ministers elsewhere — follow mounting anger in Europe over American subsidies that threaten to wreck European industry. The Kremlin is likely to welcome the poisoning of the atmosphere among Western allies. 

By Jakob Hanke Vela

Germany and France join forces against Biden in subsidy battle

By Hans von der Burchard

“We are really at a historic juncture,” the senior EU official said, arguing that the double hit of trade disruption from U.S. subsidies and high energy prices risks turning public opinion against both the war effort and the transatlantic alliance. “America needs to realize that public opinion is shifting in many EU countries.”

The EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell called on Washington to respond to European concerns. “Americans — our friends — take decisions which have an economic impact on us,” he said in an interview with POLITICO.

The biggest point of tension in recent weeks has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal objections from Europe, Washington has so far shown no sign of backing down. 

At the same time, the disruption caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is tipping European economies into recession, with inflation rocketing and a devastating squeeze on energy supplies threatening blackouts and rationing this winter. 

As they attempt to reduce their reliance on Russian energy, EU countries are turning to gas from the U.S. instead — but the price Europeans pay is almost four times as high as the same fuel costs in America. Then there’s the likely surge in orders for American-made military kit as European armies run short after sending weapons to Ukraine. 

It's all got too much for top officials in Brussels and other EU capitals. French President Emmanuel Macron said high U.S. gas prices were not “friendly” and Germany’s economy minister has called on Washington to show more “solidarity” and help reduce energy costs. 

Ministers and diplomats based elsewhere in the bloc voiced frustration at the way Biden’s government simply ignores the impact of its domestic economic policies on European allies. 

When EU leaders tackled Biden over high U.S. gas prices at the G20 meeting in Bali last week, the American president simply seemed unaware of the issue, according to the senior official quoted above. Other EU officials and diplomats agreed that American ignorance about the consequences for Europe was a major problem. 

"The Europeans are discernibly frustrated about the lack of prior information and consultation," said David Kleimann of the Bruegel think tank.

Officials on both sides of the Atlantic recognize the risks that the increasingly toxic atmosphere will have for the Western alliance. The bickering is exactly what Putin would wish for, EU and U.S. diplomats agreed. 

The growing dispute over Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — a huge tax, climate and health care package — has put fears over a transatlantic trade war high on the political agenda again. EU trade ministers are due to discuss their response on Friday as officials in Brussels draw up plans for an emergency war chest of subsidies to save European industries from collapse. 

"The Inflation Reduction Act is very worrying," said Dutch Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher. "The potential impact on the European economy is very big."

"The U.S. is following a domestic agenda, which is regrettably protectionist and discriminates against U.S. allies," said Tonino Picula, the European Parliament's lead person on the transatlantic relationship.

An American official stressed the price setting for European buyers of gas reflects private market decisions and is not the result of any U.S. government policy or action. "U.S. companies have been transparent and reliable suppliers of natural gas to Europe," the official said. Exporting capacity has also been limited by an accident in June that forced a key facility to shut down.

In most cases, the official added, the difference between the export and import prices doesn't go to U.S. LNG exporters, but to companies reselling the gas within the EU. The largest European holder of long-term U.S. gas contracts is France's TotalEnergies for example. 

It’s not a new argument from the American side but it doesn’t seem to be convincing the Europeans. "The United States sells us its gas with a multiplier effect of four when it crosses the Atlantic," European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton said on French TV on Wednesday. "Of course the Americans are our allies ... but when something goes wrong it is necessary also between allies to say it."

Cheaper energy has quickly become a huge competitive advantage for American companies, too. Businesses are planning new investments in the U.S. or even relocating their existing businesses away from Europe to American factories. Just this week, chemical multinational Solvay announced it is choosing the U.S. over Europe for new investments, in the latest of a series of similar announcements from key EU industrial giants. 

Allies or not?

Despite the energy disagreements, it wasn't until Washington announced a $369 billion industrial subsidy scheme to support green industries under the Inflation Reduction Act that Brussels went into full-blown panic mode.

“The Inflation Reduction Act has changed everything," one EU diplomat said. "Is Washington still our ally or not?”

For Biden, the legislation is a historic climate achievement. "This is not a zero-sum game," the U.S. official said. "The IRA will grow the pie for clean energy investments, not split it." 

But the EU sees that differently. An official from France’s foreign affairs ministry said the diagnosis is clear: These are "discriminatory subsidies that will distort competition.” French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire this week even accused the U.S. of going down China's path of economic isolationism, urging Brussels to replicate such an approach. “Europe must not be the last of the Mohicans,” he said.

The EU is preparing its responses, such as a big subsidy push to prevent European industry from being wiped out by American rivals. "We are experiencing a creeping crisis of trust on trade issues in this relationship," said German MEP Reinhard Bütikofer. 

"At some point, you have to assert yourself," said French MEP Marie-Pierre Vedrenne. "We are in a world of power struggles. When you arm-wrestle, if you are not muscular, if you are not prepared both physically and mentally, you lose.”

Behind the scenes, there is also growing irritation about the money flowing into the American defense sector.

The U.S. has by far been the largest provider of military aid to Ukraine, supplying more than $15.2 billion in weapons and equipment since the start of the war. The EU has so far provided about €8 billion of military equipment to Ukraine, according to Borrell.

According to one senior official from a European capital, restocking of some sophisticated weapons may take “years” because of problems in the supply chain and the production of chips. This has fueled fears that the U.S. defense industry can profit even more from the war. 

The Pentagon is already developing a roadmap to speed up arms sales, as the pressure from allies to respond to greater demands for weapons and equipment grows.  

Another EU diplomat argued that “the money they are making on weapons” could help Americans understand that making “all this cash on gas” might be “a bit too much.” 

The diplomat argued that a discount on gas prices could help us to "keep united our public opinions” and to negotiate with third countries on gas supplies. “It’s not good, in terms of optics, to give the impression that your best ally is actually making huge profits out of your troubles,” the diplomat said.

JESSE WEGMAN

Is Donald Trump Ineligible to Be President?

Nov. 24, 2022

By Jesse Wegman

NYT

Mr. Wegman is a member of the editorial board.

How does a democracy protect itself against a political leader who is openly hostile to democratic self-rule? This is the dilemma the nation faces once again as it confronts a third presidential run by Donald Trump, even as he still refuses to admit he lost his second.

Of course, we shouldn’t be in this situation to begin with. The facts are well known but necessary to repeat, if only because we must never become inured to them: Abetted by a posse of low-rent lawyers, craven lawmakers and associated crackpots, Mr. Trump schemed to overturn the 2020 election by illegal and unconstitutional means. When those efforts failed, he incited a violent insurrection at the United States Capitol, causing widespread destruction, leading to multiple deaths and — for the first time in American history — interfering with the peaceful transfer of power. Almost two years later, he continues to claim, without any evidence, that he was cheated out of victory, and millions of Americans continue to believe him.

The best solution to behavior like this is the one that’s been available from the start: impeachment. The founders put it in the Constitution because they were well acquainted with the risks of corruption and abuse that come with vesting great power in a single person. Congress rightly used this tool, impeaching Mr. Trump in 2021 to hold him accountable for his central role in the Jan. 6 siege. Had the Senate convicted him as it should have, he could have been disqualified from holding public office again. But nearly all Senate Republicans came to his defense, leaving him free to run another day.

There is another, less-known solution in our Constitution to protect the country from Mr. Trump: Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bars from public office anyone who, “having previously taken an oath” to support the Constitution, “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” or gave “aid or comfort” to America’s enemies.

On its face, this seems like an eminently sensible rule to put in a nation’s governing document. That’s how Representative David Cicilline of Rhode Island, who has drafted a resolution in Congress enabling the use of Section 3 against Mr. Trump, framed it. “This is America. We basically allow anyone to be president,” Mr. Cicilline told me. “We set limited disqualifications. One is, you can’t incite an insurrection against the United States. You shouldn’t get to lead a government that you tried to destroy.”

This was also the reasoning of the 14th Amendment’s framers, who intended it to serve as an aggressive response to the existential threat to the Republic posed by the losing side of the Civil War. Section 3 was Congress’s way of ensuring that unrepentant former Confederate officials — “enemies to the Union” — were not allowed to hold federal or state office again. As Representative John Bingham, one of the amendment’s lead drafters, put it in 1866, rebel leaders “surely have no right to complain if this is all the punishment the American people shall see fit to impose upon them.”

And yet despite its clarity and good sense, the provision has rarely been invoked. The first time, in the aftermath of the Civil War, it was used to disqualify thousands of Southern rebels, but within four years, Congress voted to extend amnesty to most of them. It was used again in 1919 when the House refused to seat a socialist member accused of giving aid and comfort to Germany in World War I.

In September, for the first time in more than a century, a New Mexico judge invoked Section 3, to remove from office a county commissioner, Couy Griffin, who had been convicted of entering the Capitol grounds as part of the Jan. 6 mob. This raised hopes among those looking for a way to bulletproof the White House against Mr. Trump that Section 3 might be the answer.

I count myself among this crowd. As Jan. 6 showed the world, Mr. Trump poses a unique and profound threat to the Republic: He is an authoritarian who disregards the Constitution and the rule of law and who delights in abusing his power to harm his perceived opponents and benefit himself, his family and his friends. For that reason, I am open to using any constitutional means of preventing him from even attempting to return to the White House.

At the same time, I’m torn about using this specific tool. Section 3 is extraordinarily strong medicine. Like an impeachment followed by conviction, it denies the voters their free choice of those who seek to represent them. That’s not the way democracy is designed to work.

And yet it is true, as certain conservatives never tire of reminding us, that democracy in the United States is not absolute. There are multiple checks built into our system that interfere with the expression of direct majority rule: the Senate, the Supreme Court and the Electoral College, for example. The 14th Amendment’s disqualification clause is another example — in this case, a peaceful and transparent mechanism to neutralize an existential threat to the Republic.

Nor is it antidemocratic to impose conditions of eligibility for public office. For instance, Article II of the Constitution puts the presidency off limits to anyone younger than 35. If we have decided that a 34-year-old is, by definition, not mature or reliable enough to hold such immense power, then surely we can decide the same about a 76-year-old who incited an insurrection in an attempt to keep that power.

So could Section 3 really be used to prevent Mr. Trump from running for or becoming president again? As a legal matter, it seems beyond doubt. The Capitol attack was an insurrection by any meaningful definition — a concerted, violent attempt to block Congress from performing its constitutionally mandated job of counting electoral votes. He engaged in that insurrection, even if he did not physically join the crowd as he promised he would. As top Democrats and Republicans in Congress said during and after his impeachment trial, the former president was practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of Jan. 6. The overwhelming evidence gathered and presented by the House’s Jan. 6 committee has only made clearer the extent of the plot by Mr. Trump and his associates to overturn the election — and how his actions and his failures to act led directly to the assault and allowed it to continue as long as it did. In the words of Representative Liz Cheney, the committee’s vice chair, Mr. Trump “summoned the mob, assembled the mob and lit the flame of this attack.”

A few legal scholars have argued that Section 3 does not apply to the presidency because it does not explicitly list that position. It is hard to square that claim with the provision’s fundamental purpose, which is to prevent insurrectionists from participating in American government. It would be bizarre in the extreme if Mr. Griffin’s behavior can disqualify him from serving as a county commissioner but not from serving as president.

It’s not the legal questions that give me pause, though; it’s the political ones.

First is the matter of how Republicans would react to Mr. Trump’s disqualification. An alarmingly large faction of the party is unwilling to accept the legitimacy of an election that its candidate didn’t win. Imagine the reaction if their standard-bearer were kept off the ballot altogether. They would thunder about a “rigged election” — and unlike all the times Mr. Trump has baselessly invoked that phrase, it would carry a measure of truth. Combine this with the increasingly violent rhetoric coming from right-wing media figures and politicians, including top Republicans, and you have the recipe for something far worse than Jan. 6. On the other hand, if partisan outrage were a barrier to invoking the law, many laws would be dead letters.

The more serious problem with Section 3 is that it is easy to see how it could morph into a caricature of what it is trying to prevent. Keeping specific candidates off the ballot is a classic move of autocrats, from Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela to Aleksandr Lukashenko in Belarus to Vladimir Putin. It sends the message that voters cannot be trusted to choose their leaders wisely — if at all. And didn’t we just witness Americans around the country using their voting power to repudiate Mr. Trump’s Big Lie and reject the most dangerous election deniers? Shouldn’t we let elections take their course and give the people the chance to (again) reject Mr. Trump at the ballot box?

To help me resolve my ambivalence, I called Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who sits on the Jan. 6 committee and taught constitutional law before joining Congress. He acknowledged what he called an understandable “queasiness” about invoking Section 3 to keep Mr. Trump off the ballot. But Mr. Raskin argued that this queasiness is built into the provision. “What was the constitutional bargain struck in Section 3?” he asked. “There would be a very minor incursion into the right of the people to elect exactly who they want, in order to obtain much greater security for the constitutional order against those who have demonstrated a propensity to want to overthrow it when it is to their advantage.”

The contours of the case for Mr. Trump’s disqualification might get stronger yet, as the Justice Department and state prosecutors continue to pursue multiple criminal investigations into him and his associates and as the Jan. 6 committee prepares to release its final report. While he would not be prohibited from running for office even if he was under criminal indictment, it would be more politically palatable to invoke Section 3 in that case and even more so if he was convicted.

I still believe that the ideal way for Mr. Trump to be banished for good would be via the voters. This scenario is democracy’s happy ending. After all, self-government is not a place; it is a choice, and an ongoing one. If Americans are going to keep making that choice — in favor of fair and equal representation, in favor of institutions that venerate the rule of law and against the threats of authoritarian strongmen — they do it best by themselves. That is why electoral victory is the ultimate political solution to the ultimate political problem. It worked that way in 2020, when an outright majority of voters rejected Mr. Trump and replaced him with Joe Biden.

But it’s essential to remember that not all democracies have happy endings. Which brings us to the most unsettling answer to the question I began with: Sometimes a democracy doesn’t protect itself. There is no rule that says democracies will perpetuate themselves indefinitely. Many countries, notably Hungary and Turkey, have democratically undone themselves by electing leaders who then dismantled most of the rights and privileges people tend to expect from democratic government. Section 3 is in the Constitution precisely to help ensure that America does not fall into that trap.

Whether or not invoking Section 3 succeeds, the best argument for it is to take the Constitution at its word. “We undermine the importance of the Constitution if we pick and choose what rules apply,” Mr. Cicilline told me. “One of the ways we rebuild confidence in American democracy is to remind people we have a Constitution and that it has in it provisions that say who can run for public office. You don’t get to apply the Constitution sometimes or only if you feel like it. We take an oath. We swear to uphold it. We don’t swear to uphold most of it. If Donald Trump has taught us anything, it’s about protecting the Constitution of the United States.”

Surely the remedy of Section 3 is worth pursuing only in the most extraordinary circumstances. Just as surely, the events surrounding Jan. 6 clear that bar. If inciting a violent insurrection to keep oneself in office against the will of the voters isn’t such a circumstance, what is?

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https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2022/11/25/riots-at-world-s-largest-iphone-factory-in-china-reveal-the-limits-of-zero-covid_6005631_19.html

In China, riots at world's largest iPhone factory reveal the limits of zero-Covid policy

Workers at Foxconn, Apple's main subcontractor, have denounced the company's unfulfilled promises of bonuses and its strict quarantine conditions for new employees.

By Simon Leplâtre (Shanghai (China) correspondent) and Alexandre Piquard

Published on November 25, 2022 at 14h30, updated at 16h28 on November 25, 2022

In this Nov. 23, 2022 photo, protesters face security personnel wearing white protective clothing inside the Foxconn Technology Group factory, which assembles most of Apple's iPhones, in Zhengzhou, central China's Henan province. AP

Illuminated by the dim light of street lamps, a compact crowd of workers brandishing iron bars pushes back a small troop of police officers, wrapped in protective white hazmat suits. In the many videos of these protests shared on social networks, blows rain down on workers and shouts resound: "the police are hitting people," "pay our wages," "down with Foxconn," and "defend your rights." Since Tuesday, November 22, and for at least 48 hours, thousands of workers at Foxconn, which assembles Apple's iPhones, have been protesting to demand the payment of promised bonuses for new recruits, while production has been disrupted by restrictions related to China's zero-Covid policy. Other videos, quickly censored, show workers being beaten up by those in hazmat suits, being taken away by the police, or being injured.

After two days of clashes, Foxconn decided to buy peace by offering, on Thursday 24 November, 10,000 yuan (€1,340), or about two months' salary, to those who would choose to return home. The company also apologized for "an input error in the computer system and guarantee that the actual salary corresponds to what was promised in the recruitment advertisements," they said in a statement. The error is expected to cost Foxconn and Apple, which depends on the Zhengzhou factory for 80% of its latest iPhone 14s. In early November, the Apple brand had already acknowledged production delays due to the outbreak of Covid-19 within the giant Zhengzhou campus, nicknamed "iPhone City."

At the end of October, tens of thousands of Foxconn employees fled the site where cases of Covid-19 were multiplying, denouncing the chaotic management of the situation: spartan conditions, a lack of food, and a lack of responsiveness to prevent the spread of the virus. A real city within a city, with about 200,000 employees, the Foxconn factory had been operating in a closed circuit since the first cases were recorded in mid-October. Images broadcast on local television networks showed workers climbing factory barriers before walking dozens of kilometers to get home. Since then, Foxconn launched a major recruitment campaign in the middle of the iPhone production season and in the run-up to Christmas. The company had increased wages and promised attractive bonuses of 3,000 yuan (€402) per employee.

Authoritarian management

In this November 23, 2022 photo, protesters face security personnel wearing white protective hazmat suits inside the Foxconn Technology Group factory, which assembles most of Apple's iPhones, in Zhengzhou, central China's Henan province. AP

To meet the massive needs of the province's largest employer, the Henan authorities had even begun to intervene, pushing surrounding neighborhood officials to send their unemployed residents. To set an example, members of the Chinese Communist Party were the first to respond. For China, it's all about keeping its first position in global supply chains. But the efforts of local governments, combined with those of many private recruitment agencies that usually work for Foxconn, seem to have worked too well: in mid-November, the company claimed to have recruited 100,000 applicants, and on November 21, the company suspended its campaign in the face of an influx of applicants, all of whom had to undergo four days of quarantine off-site and then seven days on-site before they could be hired. "There are too many new people, the logistics are not in place, the beds are full. And if, after four days of quarantine, you are not deemed fit for work, you are fired without pay!" testified an employee on Douyin (the Chinese version of TikTok). It's not hard to imagine the frustration of candidates traveling from far away, rejected without compensation after several days of quarantine...

In 2010, the company responded to a series of suicides at its Shenzhen site by installing nets under windows

Foxconn, the main subcontractor for Apple and other electronics giants, is known for its authoritarian management methods. In 2010, the company reacted to a series of suicides at its Shenzhen site (in southeastern China) by installing nets under windows. Since then, the Taiwanese outsourcing giant has been accused of other worrying working conditions, including the illegal employment of underage trainees. They're repeated scandals that call into question the responsibility of Apple. "We have representatives from Apple's teams on-site at the [Zhengzhou factory of subcontractor Foxconn]. We are examining the situation and working closely with Foxconn to ensure that the employees' claims are answered," the American company said on Thursday.

Apple's dependence on China

The tensions at the Zhengzhou factory once again highlight the problem of Western companies' dependence on foreign manufacturers, like Apple with China. Foxconn provides 70% of the production of its flagship product, the iPhone. And the Zhengzhou factory produces 80% of the iPhone 14, the latest iPhone model, according to technology market analysis firm Counterpoint. China's zero-Covid policy has been an "uppercut" for the US company, according to Wedbush Securities Analyst Dan Ives, predicting delivery delays and a drop in iPhone 14 production that could push the number of devices sold during Black Friday on down from 10 million to 8 million units.

Paris and Berlin are starting to move beyond their differences

After a week of bilateral meetings aimed at easing weeks-long tensions, France's prime minister is visiting Berlin for the first time on Friday, November 25.

By Thomas Wieder (Berlin (Germany) correspondent)

Published on November 25, 2022 at 14h00, updated at 14h00 on November 25, 2022

Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, during a meeting on the sidelines of the climate summit, in Sharm El-Sheikh (Egypt), on November 7, 2022. LUDOVIC MARIN / AP

After some serious malfunctions, the Franco-German engine is starting up again. Within the space of a week, no less than four German ministers (transport, foreign affairs, economy and finance) visited Paris. On Friday, November 25, the French Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, will head to Berlin where she will be received by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, followed by the Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck. This visit was preceded by that of Culture Minister Rima Abdul Malak who was in Berlin on Thursday for the opening of the 22nd Berlin French Film Week, alongside her German counterpart, Claudia Roth.

One month after the cancellation of the Franco-German Council of Ministers, scheduled for October 26 just outside of Paris, and Mr. Macron's stern words in Brussels on October 20 – "It is not a good thing for Europe for Germany to isolate itself" – there is a clear will to resume dialogue between the two countries. "We undoubtedly went too far in showing our disagreement," observed one French minister. "Therefore it is urgent to find our common ground again, especially after the G20 summit [on November 15 and 16, in Bali, Indonesia] which reminded us how important it is to be united at the European level, and therefore, above all, between the French and the Germans."

On both sides, there are many signs of respect. In Paris on Monday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock not only met with her counterpart, Catherine Colonna, for an exchange with young people at a central Paris high school, but she also met with Mr. Macron at the Elysée Palace. On the same day, the Economy Minister, Bruno Le Maire, had dinner with Mr. Habeck, before accompanying him the next day to a meeting with the French president. He also had dinner on Thursday with Christian Lindner, the German finance minister, who was also visiting the French capital.

'Close ties'

On the German side, there is a clear desire to dispel misunderstandings. At the end of September, the French government did not appreciate not having been informed in advance of the €200 billion aid plan announced by Mr. Scholz to deal with surging energy prices. To settle the dispute, the German ambassador to France, Hans-Dieter Lucas, on November 19, wrote a column in the regional French newspaper Ouest-France, that this plan was not an "unfair attempt to benefit German industry," contrary to accusations that has been made in several European capitals, including Paris.

In recent weeks, a certain annoyance had also surfaced on the French side, with regard to Ms. Baerbock when she said she would be on vacation on the day scheduled for the Franco-German council of ministers in Fontainebleau. Since then, the head of German diplomacy has not missed an opportunity to put this blunder behind her.

At a hearing of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly on November 7, she stayed twice as long as planned to discuss with one hundred MPs from both countries gathered in the Bundestag. "Our ties with France are closer than with any other country," she said, before making an unexpected comparison: "You can sometimes yell at your spouse for not putting the cap back on the toothpaste tube. But the value of a relationship is that you don't get angry about these things. It is this trust that I feel every day in the partnership between our two countries."

While there have been no sensational announcements, the intense exchanges of the last few days have allowed France and Germany to show their closeness on a few issues. At a joint press conference on Tuesday at France's Finance Ministry, Mr. Le Maire and Mr. Habeck denounced with equal vigor the threat to the competitiveness of European industries posed by US President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

In a joint statement, the two ministers also emphasized the dominant role that Paris and Berlin have said they intend to play so that the European Union can strengthen "its strategic sovereignty in energy and industry." They also announced the launch of bilateral cooperation and working groups in sectors such as hydrogen, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, space policy, quantum computing and the supply of raw materials.

A 'new impetus for the Franco-German relationship'

This shared willingness to emphasize common ground rather than highlight disagreements obviously does not mean that disagreements no longer exist. "Issues that were complicated a month ago are still complicated despite some progress, such as on the Future Air Combat System [FCAS] where the pressure exerted by politicians has allowed manufacturers to overcome certain stumbling blocks," acknowledged one diplomat. "After the frosty spell of the last few weeks, everyone seems to have understood that it is urgent to revive the spirit of bilateralism. We had reached a point where the accumulation of misunderstandings made the Franco-German relationship sound like a broken record."

In Berlin as in Paris, this proliferation of ministerial meetings seems all the more necessary since relations between Mr. Macron and Mr. Scholz, while cordial, lack fluidity. Perceived in Paris as "cold," "distant" and "elusive," the chancellor remains a "complicated" interlocutor for the French president, according to those close to him. This explains why Mr. Macron also wants to maintain personal ties with other major figures in the German government, such as Mr. Habeck and Ms. Baerbock, whom he met at a dinner in Munich in February 2020, when they were co-chairs of the Greens. "On most European issues, except nuclear, the Greens are the best allies of France within the German government. It remains to be seen whether they will look a little more towards Paris, because their first reflex so far has been to turn towards Brussels," observed one diplomat.

Intended to give "new impetus to Franco-German relations," an expression used in both Paris and Berlin, this week, packed full of bilateral meetings, was, according to general opinion, more than necessary to prepare for the next major event that the two governments cannot afford to miss: the 60th anniversary of the Elysée Treaty, signed on January 22, 1963, by Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer. The anniversary marks the signing of the treaty of friendship between France and West Germany and could coincide with the Franco-German Council of Ministers, postponed three times since July. It is hoped the meeting will result in major announcements, at the Elysée Palace even more than at the German Chancellery, on the two most complicated issues of the moment: defense and energy.

News round-up, Thursday, November 24, 2022.

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“Russian Strikes
Millions remain without power in Ukraine even as some services are restored.
KYIV, Ukraine — Utility crews worked through the dark night in snow and freezing rain to stabilize Ukraine’s battered energy grid on Thursday after another destructive wave of Russian missile strikes, restoring essential services like running water and heat in many parts of the country even as millions remained without power.”

— Le Monde

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Russian-Ukraine WarUkraine Scrambles to Restore Services After Disruptive Russian Strikes

Millions remain without power in Ukraine even as some services are restored.

KYIV, Ukraine — Utility crews worked through the dark night in snow and freezing rain to stabilize Ukraine’s battered energy grid on Thursday after another destructive wave of Russian missile strikes, restoring essential services like running water and heat in many parts of the country even as millions remained without power.

Ukrainians have expressed defiance in the face of Moscow’s unrelenting campaign to weaponize winter in an attempt to weaken their resolve and force Kyiv to capitulate even as Russia heaped new suffering on a war-weary nation.

Surgeons were forced to work by flashlight, thousands of miners had to be pulled from deep underground by manual winches and people across the country lugged buckets and bottles of water up flights of stairs in high-rise apartment buildings where the elevators stopped running.

The State Border Service of Ukraine suspended operations at checkpoints on the borders with Hungary and Romania on Thursday because of power outages and Ukraine’s national rail operator reported delays and disruptions across a network that has served as a resilient lifeline for the nation over nine months of war.

Families charged their phones, warmed up and gathered information at centers set up in towns and cities during extended power outages. The police in the capital, Kyiv, and in other cities stepped up patrols as the owners of shops and restaurants flipped on generators, or lit candles, and kept working.

“The situation is difficult throughout the country,” said Herman Galushchenko, Ukraine’s energy minister. But by 4 a.m., he said, engineers had managed to “unify the energy system,” allowing power to be directed to critical infrastructure facilities.

In Moldova, Ukraine’s western neighbor, whose Soviet-era electricity systems remain interconnected with Ukraine’s, the grid was largely back online after the country experienced “massive power outages,” the infrastructure minister said on Twitter. “We move on, stronger and victorious,” the minister, Andrei Spinu, wrote.

The barrage of Russian missiles on Wednesday killed at least 10 people and injured dozens, Ukrainian officials said, in what appeared to be one of the most disruptive attacks in weeks. Since Oct. 10, Russia has fired around 600 missiles at power plants, hydroelectric facilities, water pumping stations and treatment facilities, high-voltage cables around nuclear power stations and critical substations that bring power to tens of millions of homes and businesses, according to Ukrainian officials.

The campaign is taking a mounting toll. The strikes on Wednesday put all of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants offline for the first time, depriving the country of one of its most vital sources of energy.

“We expect that nuclear plants will start working by the evening, so the deficit will decrease,” Mr. Galushchenko said.

Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the top commander of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said Ukrainian air defenses shot down 51 of the 67 Russian cruise missiles fired on Wednesday and five of 10 drones.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking Wednesday night at an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council, decried what he called a Russian campaign of terror.

“When the temperature outside drops below zero and tens of millions of people are left without electricity, heat and water as a result of Russian missiles hitting energy facilities,” he said, “that is an obvious crime against humanity.”

In Kyiv, around one in four homes still had no electricity on Thursday afternoon, and more than half of the city’s residents had no running water, according to city officials. Service was gradually being restored, city officials said, and they said they were confident that the pumps that provide water to some three million residents would be restored by the end of the day.

Transit was suspended in the southern port city of Odesa on the Black Sea so that the limited energy supply could be directed to getting water running again. In the Lviv region in Ukraine’s west, where millions displaced from their homes by fighting, power and water have fled, services were largely restored.

The national energy utility, Ukrenergo, said that given the “significant amount of damage” and difficult working conditions, repairs in some regions may take longer than others.

“There is no reason to panic,” the utility said in a statement. Critical infrastructure would all be reconnected, it said.

— Marc Santora

‘Every hour is getting harder’: Surgeons struggle to operate when the power goes out.

KYIV, Ukraine — The surgeons had made the long incision down the middle of the child’s chest, cut the breastbone to spread the rib cage and reach the heart when the lights went out at the Heart Institute in Kyiv.

Generators kicked on to keep life-support equipment running on Wednesday night as nurses and surgical assistants held flashlights over the operating table, guiding the surgeons as they snipped and cut, working to save a life under the most trying of conditions.

“The electricity went out completely in the operating room,” said Borys Todurov, the institute’s director, who posted a video of the procedure online to illustrate the difficulties doctors are facing.

“So far we are coping on our own,” he said. “But every hour is getting harder. There has been no water for several hours now. We continue to do only emergency operations.”

Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid are taking a growing toll on the nation as the damage adds up. After each strike, repairs become more challenging, blackouts can last longer and the danger for the public increases.

The scene in the Kyiv hospital echoes those in medical facilities around the country, a vivid illustration of the cascading toll Russia’s attacks are having on civilians far from the front lines.

Two kidney transplant operations were being performed at the Cherkasy Regional Cancer Center in central Ukraine when the lights went out, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of the Ukrainian president’s office, said on the Telegram messaging app. The generators were switched on, and the transplants were successful, he said.

“Ukrainian doctors are invincible!” he said.

In the central city of Dnipro, an aeronautics and industrial hub with a population of around one million people, the strikes caused Mechnikov Hospital to lose power, a first since the war began, doctors said.

“We’ve been preparing for this moment for two years,” said one doctor, who requested anonymity because the doctor was not authorized to talk to the news media.

The hospital’s I.C.U. and operating rooms are working on generators, the doctor added, but the living quarters are without power.

Christopher Stokes, the head of Doctors Without Borders in Ukraine, said that the strikes on infrastructure were putting “millions of civilians in danger.” They can feed a vicious loop, in which people living without heat and clean water are more likely to need medical care but that care itself is harder to deliver.

“Energy cuts and water disruptions also will affect people’s access to health care as hospitals and health centers struggle to operate,” he said.

At the Kyiv hospital, surgeons donned headlamps and continued to work in the dark. The operation was a success, Mr. Todurov said.

“Thanks to all the staff for their well-coordinated and selfless work,” he said. “In this unusual situation, we did not lose a single patient.”

Russian missiles target Ukraine civilians and infrastructure

By Emmanuel Grynszpan Published on November 24, 2022 at 12h36, updated at 14h37 on November 24, 2022

FeatureA new wave of Russian missiles hit Ukrainian civilian infrastructure on Wednesday, plunging parts of the country, including Kyiv, into darkness and killing at least 10.

"What's the point of you observing the damage? The whole world already knows what's going on here, it doesn't change anything. People only understand when missiles fall on their heads."

Behind police tape, a volunteer was blocking the path to houses damaged by the explosion, an hour earlier, of a Russian missile, on Wednesday, November 23, in Vychhorod, a suburb north of Kyiv. This well-mannered and elegantly dressed 40-year-old said he was carrying out police instructions not to let anyone through. The entire neighborhood was cordoned off "until the rescue operations are completed".

As night fell, a crowd of local residents moved in small, cautious steps around the area, slipping on the ice and packed snow. Some were trying to see the damage, others hurrying to get home before dark.

"The entire city lost power immediately after the explosion," said the volunteer, in the same calm tone. Without the slightest hint of annoyance or fatalism, he continued: "Our [Russian] neighbors will not stop. To survive, we must defeat them and we must go all the way. When we defeated Hitler, we did not stop at the German border. We had to go all the way to Berlin and finish off the monster."

The district of Vychhorod, in the suburbs of Kyiv, was bombed on the afternoon of November 23 CHLOE SHARROCK / AGENCE MYOP FOR LE MONDE Residents wait behind a security cordon following a Russian bombardment of the Vychhorod district CHLOE SHARROCK / AGENCE FOR LE MONDE

A few minutes later, on the other side of the block, a lenient policeman allowed us to enter the scene. Two five-storey brick buildings on two sides of a children's playground were badly damaged, partially burned. The missile seemed to have pierced the roof of one. All the windows in the vicinity were blown out, including those of Vychhorod school, 50 metres away.

Russian saturation tactics

"It's a good thing there were no kids there when it happened," muttered a man in fatigues assisting the rescuers. "Six bodies have been pulled out of the rubble," he said. "One of them is still lying here," he added, gesturing to the entrance of a building. Firefighters continued to walk over the rubble with their hoses, skirting around the charred carcasses of vehicles, twisted metal sheets and other debris littering the ground.

The beams of their torches searched the darkness in the apartments of a nine-storey building, located perpendicular to the two most affected buildings. Its inhabitants were prioritizing their most urgent needs. The better equipped ones were attaching plastic film to the windows to insulate their homes from the bitter cold.

"I have no heat, no electricity, no water," Serhi Vartchouk said from his first-floor balcony. "Who is going to help us? No one will help us. Neither the government nor the rich people who have gone abroad to wait for this to pass. I don't believe in anything anymore, not even in [Volodymyr] Zelensky, who promised us peace," he shouted in frustration, before disappearing into the darkness.

A dozen Ukrainian cities and entire regions are in the same boat as Vychhorod. As of Wednesday evening, water and electricity were off in 80% of the capital's homes, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, who was unable to give a date for when utilities would be restored. The November 23 attack left 10 people dead across Ukraine, according to a provisional death toll from the interior minister. Kyiv Region Governor Oleksiy Kouleba gave a figure of five killed and 31 injured in the city of Vychhorod.

Soldiers walk through the rubble after a Russian bombing in the Vychhorod district of Kyiv on November 23 CHLOE SHARROCK / AGENCE MYOP FOR LE MONDE The district of Vychhorod in the suburbs of Kyiv on November 23 CHLOE SHARROCK / AGENCE FOR LE MONDE

The Russian army launched several dozen missiles at the same time, in the mid-afternoon, repeating for the fifth time since the invasion a tactic of saturating Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses. "The Russian terrorist state fired missiles en masse at Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Unable to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces, the enemy is waging a war against peaceful citizens, power plants, hospitals and even babies," tweeted General Valeri Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.

'Crime against humanity'

He was referring to a strike the day before on a hospital in the Zaporizhzhia region, in which a newborn baby was killed. According to him, Russia fired 67 X-101 and X-555 caliber cruise missiles, as well as five kamikaze drones. Some 51 missiles were reportedly shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses. This new deadly wave has, once again, contradicted the claims by Ukrainian and western military experts that Russia has emptied its arsenal of cruise missiles.

It also came as the European Parliament voted in favor of a declaration that "Russia is a state sponsor of terrorism," with 494 votes for, 58 against and 44 abstentions. On November 23, the Russian missiles (at least those that were not intercepted) were all aimed at civilian targets located behind the front line. This is a "crime against humanity," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday, before the United Nations Security Council.

Deployed on the ground and powered by its own mobile infrastructure, the Ukrainian army was not affected by these strikes. The country's electrical infrastructure, identified by the Kremlin as UKraine's Achilles heel, is clearly being targeted. Its complete collapse at the beginning of winter should, according to Russian plans, create a massive wave of emigration to Europe, break the morale of the Ukrainian people and break the sacred union, in place for the last nine months, between the political leadership, the army and public opinion. However, there is no historical precedent for the effectiveness of such a tactic.

News round-up, Wenesday, November 23, 2022.

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BORIS BLAST

Boris Johnson claims Germany wanted Ukraine to FOLD quickly after Russia invasion – but says it would’ve been a disaster

• Noa Hoffman

• Published: 9:21, 23 Nov 2022

• The Sun

BORIS Johnson last night accused Germany of initially wanting Ukraine to be quickly crushed by Russia, rather than fight a drawn-out war.

The ex-PM also claimed France was “in denial right up until the last moment” about Mad Vlad Putin launching a full-scale invasion.

Boris Johnson has claimed Germany initially wanted Ukraine to fold quickly after Russia invadedCredit: EPA

In a candid interview with CNN in Portugal, the BoJo said: “The German view was at one stage that if it were going to happen, which would be a disaster, then it would be better for the whole thing to be over quickly and for Ukraine to fold.”

Boris explained that Germany had “all sorts of sound economic reasons” for wanting to avoid a prolonged conflict.

But he added: “I couldn’t support that, I thought that was a disastrous way of looking at it. I can understand why they thought and felt as they did.”

Turning his attention to Italy, Boris said that former PM Marco Draghi at one stage thought he couldn’t offer UK-level support to Ukraine because of his country’s reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.

Johnson was PM when Russian tanks rolled across the border on February 24, triggering a major ramp up of the 8 year long conflict.

Rishi Sunak warns of winter of inflation, chaotic strikes & stretched NHS

The ex-PM's interview with CNN comes days after Rishi Sunak made his first visit to Kyiv, where he met hero President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Mr Sunak announced the UK was to provide Ukraine with £50 million worth of weapons, including anti-aircraft guns to shoot down Russian drones.

The Ukrainian leader in turn praised Britain for its ongoing backing in the war with Russia.

“Since the first days of the war, Ukraine and the UK have been the strongest of allies," he said.

"With friends like you by our side, we are confident in our victory. Both of our nations know what it means to stand up for freedom."

In Kyiv, the PM laid flowers at a memorial for the war dead and lit a candle at a memorial for victims of the Holodomor famine, before meeting emergency personnel at a fire station.

He said it was "deeply humbling" to be in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine continues to devastate the lives of millions of innocent civillians.

Just last night a newborn baby was reportedly killed after a Russian missile strike hit a maternity ward in the southern Zaporizhzhia region overnight.

EU parliament declares Russia a 'state sponsor of terrorism'

The European Parliament on Wednesday overwhelmingly backed a resolution calling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, with 494 MEPs backing the resolution.

Le Monde with AFP

Published on November 23, 2022 at 13h24

The European Parliament on Wednesday, November 23, recognized Russia as a "state sponsor of terrorism," accusing its forces of carrying out atrocities during its war on Ukraine.

The move by the European legislators is a symbolic political step with no legal consequences, but MEPs urged the governments of the 27-nation EU to follow their lead. "The deliberate attacks and atrocities carried out by the Russian Federation against the civilian population of Ukraine, the destruction of civilian infrastructure and other serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law amount to acts of terror," a resolution approved by EU lawmakers said.

The parliament said it "recognizes Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism and as a state which uses means of terrorism."

Kyiv has been calling on the international community to declare Russia a "terrorist state" over its invasion of the country, and the Strasbourg parliament's decision will likely anger Moscow. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the vote. "Russia must be isolated at all levels and held accountable in order to end its long-standing policy of terrorism in Ukraine and across the globe," he said in a social media post.

The European Union – unlike the United States – does not have a legal framework to designate countries as a "state sponsor of terrorism." Washington has so far steered clear of putting Russia on its list, a move that triggers more sanctions and would remove the state immunity of Moscow's officials.

The resolution, backed by 494 MEPs and opposed by 58, calls on Brussels to put in place the "legal framework" to take the move and consider adding Russia. "We called a spade a spade. Russia is not only a state sponsoring terrorism, but the state, which is using means of terrorism," said Lithuanian MEP Andrius Kubilius, who spearheaded the push for the resolution. "The recognition of this fact by the European Parliament sends a clear political signal. Europe, Europeans do not want to remain passive, when their big neighbor violates all humanitarian and international standards."

Lawmakers in several eastern EU countries have already voted to condemn Russian "terrorism." The EU has imposed eight rounds of unprecedented sanctions targeting Russia's key oil exports and top officials since President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to attack in February.

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European diplomats say work is underway on preparing a new package of sanctions after Moscow unleashed a ferocious missile and drone blitz against Ukraine's energy infrastructure following losses on the battlefield.

The European Parliament resolution also urged the EU to include the Wagner mercenary group and troops loyal to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov on the bloc's sanctions list of "terrorist" organizations.

Le Monde with AFP

Missiles for Poland Raise Questions on NATO Stance in Ukraine War

NATO is determined to help Ukraine battle Russia, but wants no direct part of the war. A new promise of air defense weapons for Poland may make that more complicated.

An American Patriot surface-to-air missile system at a military training center in Torun, Poland, in October.Credit...Tytus Zmijewski/EPA, via Shutterstock

By Andrew Higgins

NYT

Nov. 23, 2022, 12:01 a.m. ET

WARSAW — When a missile slammed into a Polish village just a few miles from Ukraine last week and killed two local residents, fears surged that Russia had attacked a NATO country and threatened a global conflagration — until it turned out that it was probably a wayward Ukrainian air defense missile that had fallen into Poland by accident.

Just how risky the situation remains, however, was put into focus this week when Poland announced that it had accepted a German offer of Patriot air defense systems and would deploy them “near the border” with Ukraine.

Poland, like the United States, has provided steadfast support to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February, supplying weapons and unwavering diplomatic backing, but it has no desire to get into a war with Moscow.

Still, even though the new missiles from Germany will not be fully operational for years, by which time the war in Ukraine may well be over, Poland’s plans to deploy them close to the conflict zone signals growing worries that its own security may be at risk, and that the war next door could spread, by accident or by design.

Putting American-made Patriot interceptor missiles, some of which should be working at least partially by next August, close to Ukraine raises a host of difficult questions rooted in NATO’s eagerness to help Ukraine while staying outside the conflict zone.

“What happens if our radar shows rockets are coming and they need to be intercepted inside Ukraine?” asked Jacek Bartosiak, the head of Strategy and Future, a Warsaw research group focused on security issues.

That scenario, he said, is unlikely to drag NATO into a direct clash with Russia, but would push it into an uncharted “gray zone.”

Russian warplanes, Mr. Bartosiak said, no longer venture into regions of western Ukraine next to Poland, so there is no real risk of their being hit accidentally by a missile fired from Polish territory. And the PAC-3 Patriot missiles offered by Germany have a range of around only 20 miles, which means they would not reach into areas of Ukraine where Russian air or ground forces now operate.

But, Mr. Bartosiak said, there is still the possibility of “Patriot missiles operating in Ukrainian air space.” That would undermine NATO’s hands-off approach to the war, and its strong commitment to support Ukraine with weapons while avoiding at all costs any involvement inside the country that could be used as a pretext by Moscow to escalate.

The State of the War

• Dnipro River: A volunteer Ukrainian special forces team has been conducting secret raids under the cover of darkness traveling across the strategic waterway, which has become the dividing line of the southern front.

• Evacuation Plans: The Ukrainian government is preparing to help evacuate residents from the southern cities of Kherson and Mykolaiv, where shattered infrastructure has raised fears of a humanitarian crisis when winter sets in.

• A Race to Rebuild: Ukrainian attempts to stabilize some of the country’s battered electricity supply and make a dent in the seemingly endless task of demining swaths of the country offered a glimpse into the Herculean effort that lies ahead off the battlefield.

• Visual Investigation: Videos circulating on social media have ignited a debate over whether Ukrainian forces committed war crimes or acted in self-defense as they tried to capture a group of Russian soldiers who were then killed. Here's what we know.

Russia, which has railed for years against American missiles deployed in Poland — the Pentagon says they are part of a program to defend against ballistic missiles fired by rogue states like Iran — has had no official comment on the Patriot systems being sent to Poland.

Russian military bloggers, who often reflect the views of Russia’s defense establishment, scoffed at the effectiveness of Patriot air defense missiles but accused NATO of using last week’s incident in eastern Poland as a pretext for deploying missiles close to Ukraine to help shoot down Russian munitions.

In a post on Telegram, Rybar, an unofficial but influential pro-war Russian blog, said that “a couple of additional air defense systems will not provide a ‘no-fly zone’ over Ukraine,” but warned against NATO’s “tacit potential participation in repelling missile attacks by the Russian armed forces on targets” in western Ukraine.

A NATO spokesperson, Oana Lungescu, said the alliance “welcomed” Germany’s offer to help Poland with new missiles but stressed that their mission was to defend alliance territory. “In response to Russia’s war against Ukraine, we are strengthening our defenses in the East,” she said.

Germany has already sent Patriot missiles to Slovakia, which also borders Ukraine, and the United States military in April installed its own Patriot batteries at the Polish airport of Rzeszow, a key transit hub near the Ukrainian border for Western weapons flowing into Ukraine.

None of these air-defense systems has been involved in clashes with Russia inside Ukraine.

Whether any of the additional Patriot missiles provided to Poland by Germany are fired into Ukraine could depend in part on who controls them: Polish or German military personnel.

The defense ministry in Warsaw did not respond to questions about who would be in charge. Normal procedures within the NATO alliance leave the nation providing air defense systems in control, not the host nation. The Patriots installed in April at Rzeszow airport, for example, are operated by American personnel.

Robert Czulda, a security expert at the University of Lodz in central Poland, said that Germans would most likely be in control of the new missiles, at least initially, because “our army is not trained in how to use Patriots.”

On Monday, Col. Michal Marciniak, who oversees air defense at the Polish defense ministry, told the national news agency, PAP, that the first battery of Patriot missiles offered by Germany had arrived in Poland and was being tested. Years of training will be needed, and the systems will not reach full combat readiness until 2024 or 2025, he said.

That postpones difficult decisions on whether the missiles can be fired into Ukraine and under what circumstances.

Colonel Marciniak said the main task of the Patriots from Germany would be to “protect population centers, critical infrastructure and army groups.” He did not address the question of whether this might mean firing them into Ukrainian skies. The American-operated Patriots in Rzeszow, he said, did not cover the Polish village of Przewodow that was hit last week by the errant missile.

The United States, to Ukraine’s chagrin, has been careful to avoid anything that would risk NATO getting sucked into the war directly. And Poland shares American wariness of any direct involvement in the conflict.

“We want Ukraine to win, but our priority is to keep Polish and other NATO territory safe,” said Mr. Czulda, the Lodz University expert. “We are happy to assist them and deliver arms, but there is no discussion of direct involvement. Nobody here wants that.”

That was clear, he said, from Poland’s swift response last week to claims by President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine that Russia had attacked Polish territory and that a firm response from NATO was needed. Poland’s president said the explosion was most likely an “unfortunate accident,” not an “intentional attack.”

“I understand Ukraine’s point of view, but they have their own goals and interests,” Mr. Czulda said. “Zelensky wants to get NATO involved, and we want to stay away.”

In the early months after Russia invaded, Mr. Zelensky called in vain for NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory. Washington dismissed the idea as a non-starter because it would have risked Russian and Western warplanes shooting at each other. But his plea for action last week after the missile hit a grain-processing plant in the Polish village shows that he has not given up on trying to get NATO involved.

Mr. Czulda said there was “very, very minimal risk” of the new Patriot systems dragging NATO into a confrontation with Russia in Ukraine.

“These missiles will not engage Russian aircraft in Ukraine,” he said. “But if Russians fly into Poland, that is their problem.”

He questioned whether the German-supplied Patriot missiles would add much to Poland’s military capabilities, saying they were “mainly a symbolic and political move to show that Germany is committed to Polish security” and to calm often-tense relations between Warsaw and Berlin.

Poland’s nationalist governing party, Law and Justice, has clashed repeatedly with the German government, mostly over disputes dating back to World War II. It keeps reviving what Berlin views as long-settled arguments over wartime reparation payments and has even accused Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and the dominant voice within the European Union, of working to establish a “Fourth Reich.”

If nothing else, the Patriot missile offer should help put relations back on a more even keel and curb Law and Justice’s desire to stoke the often anti-German sentiments of its political base.

Poland’s deputy prime minister, Jacek Sasin, on Tuesday hailed Germany’s offer of missiles as “an important gesture” that would ease tensions with Berlin and lead to a “real strengthening of Poland’s defenses.” Polish-German relations, he said, “are correct, although there are also a lot of problems.”

Anatol Magdziarz contributed reporting from Warsaw, and Ivan Nechepurenko from Tbilisi, Georgia.

nruteR droN

It is a purely —political— as well as —immoral— project, challenging to resurrect?

“The eternal marriage - Putin/Schröder - bore fruit for both. Putin became the executor of the former chancellor, while Schröder took on the role of private secretary and spokesperson for President Vladimir Putin. This open and familiar relationship is not typical in politics, especially between two nations with a geopolitical weight of absolute responsibility. This friendship crossed the line, and by far... The question is why German intelligence did not act against a - financial society - that was as dangerous for its own country as it was for the world.”

Germán & Co

Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.

Germán & Co

14/11/2022

Karlstad, Sweden

nruteR droN

It is a purely —political— as well as —immoral— project, challenging to resurrect?

"I don't think Putin is a Hitler-like character," Kissinger replies. "He comes out of Dostoevsky."

Portofalio magazine interview of Mr. Henry Kissinger in the French restaurant Jubilee in downtown Manhattan in New York on July 27, 2018                        

Image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.

"We have to talk about the billions and billions of dollars that are being paid to the country we are supposed to protect ourselves from," he said.

Editorial staff, BBC News World, 11 July 2018

image Shutterstock license right to Germán & Co.

News round-up, Tuesday, November 22, 2022.

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IMF tells France to end its 'whatever it takes' policy

The Washington-based institution is urging France to funnel aid towards the least well-off in the face of the energy crisis and to accelerate public spending cuts.

By Elsa Conesa and Julien Bouissou

Le Monde

Published on November 22, 2022 at 10h04, updated at 10h04 on November 22, 2022

"Deficit reduction should not be a concern while the crisis is ongoing," the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in 2020, in the midst of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Two years later, while the war in Ukraine has slowed down the recovery, caused energy prices to soar and increased deficits, the Washington-based international organization has become much less complacent, particularly with regard to France. In its annual report on France, published on Monday, November 21, the IMF sent a thinly-veiled warning, calling on the country to speed up the pace of its public spending cuts and urging it to restrict its support measures only to its most vulnerable citizens in response to the energy crisis.

"We have supported the 'whatever it takes' measures, but now it is time" to end them, said Jeffrey Franks, IMF mission chief for France, at a press conference. Mr. Franks was presenting the conclusions of the mission which, each year, reviews France's economic, budgetary and financial situation, as provided for in Article IV of the organization's statutes.

The message is a clear warning, as the government is preparing to release an additional €50 billion to support households and businesses indiscriminately in 2023, as part of the budget currently being debated in Parliament, and as interest rates rise.

It also contrasts with the recommendations made to Germany in July. At that time, the IMF deemed the country's fiscal stance for 2022 "appropriate," and even urged Berlin "to overcome long-standing impediments to a rapid and decisive increase in public investment." Germany has since announced a €200 billion package to help households and businesses facing energy price inflation.

France has not, however, entered the energy crisis with its finances in the same state as those of its neighbor. Nevertheless, it has mobilized considerable sums (more than €100 billion since the fall of 2021, in total) to absorb the bulk of price rises for households. While the IMF admits that this has enabled it to keep inflation below the level of other European countries, this has come at the cost of a massive increase in spending, added to the hundreds of billions already spent to support the economy battered by Covid-19, and fueling a new "whatever it takes" response.

'Structural reforms'

"The measures implemented in 2021-2022 totaled more than 2% of gross domestic product [GDP]," the IMF pointed out. In any case, this amount would place France around the European average, according to the European think tank Bruegel. However, two-thirds of this spending is not targeted − freezing gas prices, freezing electricity rates, rebates at the pump. They have cushioned the impact, but "driven up costs, while reducing incentives to reduce energy consumption."

The budget law for 2023, currently being discussed by the Sénat, also postpones the bulk of the budgetary effort to 2024 and beyond, the IMF lamented. It will further increase the deficit, since it plans to abolish a tax on companies (the CVAE), the yield of which will not be compensated by the "exceptional revenues recorded in 2022." Paris should therefore reduce spending from 2023, reserving its aid for "those most affected" by energy inflation, the institution believes, which could allow a budgetary tightening of a quarter of a point of GDP.

Then, "in the following years," France could rely on "structural reforms," such as unemployment insurance and pensions, or training and education. It could also review its tax niches, such as the research tax credit, whose effectiveness is regularly questioned, and undertake a "rationalization of the civil service workforce."

The French Ministry of Finance welcomed the slight correction made by the IMF to its growth forecasts, raising them from 0.7% to 0.75% for 2023

Finally, the IMF is concerned about the rejection by MPs of the public finance programming law for 2027, a text that sets the fiscal path to return to 3% of public deficit by that time. "The adoption of the medium-term programming bill is essential for the new fiscal framework to become fully operational," the institution insisted. France expects a public deficit of 5% in 2023, after 4.9% in 2022, and expects to return to 3% in 2027, targets that its larger neighbors plan to reach more quickly.

The government's reaction to this budgetary solution was not long in coming. "We have stopped the 'whatever it takes' approach" said Bruno Le Maire, the minister of the economy, speaking on French 24-hour news channel BFM-TV a few hours after the IMF report was published. "We are targeting [aid] to the companies that need it most and targeting will be the rule for state aid in 2023." France's ministry of finance was especially pleased with the IMF's slight correction to its growth forecasts, raising them from 0.7% to 0.75% for 2023. France is betting on a GDP increase of 1% for next year.

'A thousand different situations'

The question of targeting public aid − one of the IMF's unchanging recommendations − has plagued the government throughout the Covid-19 crisis, and has come up again in the face of the energy crisis. Targeting aid means taking the risk of abandoning some of the economic actors that may be having difficulties, but helping them all means jeopardizing the country's public finances as a whole.

The executive has so far chosen to support the entire French population uniformly, partly to avoid criticism, but also because of the difficulty of building simple and effective targeted mechanisms. The finance ministry worked for months on the subject, almost systematically coming up against technical implementation problems. Added to this is the opposition's resistance to the plan. This summer, the right wing opposed any targeted aid for motorists in the face of soaring gas prices, because "this always leads to the exclusion of the middle classes," said Les Républicains MP Véronique Louwagie in July, during the vote on the purchasing power package.

Ministry officials have also looked for ways to better target the "tariff shield," which freezes gas and electricity prices, so that it goes to the least well-off households. One approach was to have the government pay for households' "basic" consumption of electricity, leaving the most energy-hungry to pay for their excess use, as Germany is planning to do. It was quickly abandoned. "How do you define what basic consumption is? There are a thousand different situations," said one person close to the discussions. "It risked becoming a huge mess."

Paradoxically, the IMF's message also gives the ministry political arguments, which by nature advocates greater fiscal rigor, and to the government to defend its reform program. "The IMF is playing its role," said Nicolas Véron, an economist at the Bruegel Center and the Peterson Institute in Washington. "It is not a question of being alarmist, but it is important that all countries, and France in particular, give out signals of fiscal discipline, because there is currently a great deal of instability. No one can say what the reference economic scenario is at the moment." Hence the widespread feeling, over the past few weeks, that "the risks of a crash are being underestimated by both politicians and the markets," the economist continued.

This feeling is further reinforced by the difficulties recently experienced by the United Kingdom, which remind us that "a financial crisis is not a theoretical risk, it can happen to any country, even a large country with a good rating from the agencies," stressed François Ecalle, a specialist in public finances. "Within a few days, the situation was turned upside down, because the new government was not credible, even though British public finances had not posed any particular problem until then. The markets can sleep for years and then suddenly wake up."

Elsa Conesa and Julien Bouissou

E.U. diplomats aim to agree on a price this week, clearing the way to enforce the measure before a Dec. 5 deadline.

Oil tankers off the coast of Novorossiysk, Russia. Next month, the European Union is set to impose a near-total embargo on Russian crude shipments.Credit...Associated Press

By Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Alan Rappeport

Matina Stevis-Gridneff reported from Brussels and Alan Rappeport reported from Washington, D.C.

Nov. 22, 2022Updated 9:53 a.m. ET

A complex effort by Ukraine’s allies to deprive Russia of billions of dollars in oil revenue by putting a cap on the price paid for its crude is reaching a crescendo this week.

European Union diplomats will meet on Wednesday to try to set that price after discussions with the United States and other Group of 7 industrialized nations, with two weeks to go before the cap is scheduled to take effect.

The diplomats’ meeting in Brussels will mark the last stage of implementing the policy that requires regulatory and logistical alignment in the complicated business of ferrying the fuel out of Russia to markets such as India and China.

The policy must be in place by Dec. 5, when the European Union’s near-total embargo on Russian oil begins, one of many actions the bloc has taken to hobble Russia’s economy and limit its ability to wage war in Ukraine.

The idea behind setting a price cap is to limit the revenue Russia can make from its oil exports while also averting a shortage of the fuel, which would force prices up and compound a cost-of-living crisis around world.

The way the G7 nations want to make this work is by putting the burden of implementing and policing the price cap on the businesses that help sell the oil: global shipping and insurance companies, which are mostly based in Europe.

This is why the regulatory framework to enforce this measure needs to be adopted in Europe as well as other G7 members such as the United States, Britain and Japan, which also host companies active in transporting or insuring Russian oil.

E.U. ambassadors will need to approve the price per barrel by unanimity. The decision is expected on Wednesday, several diplomats said, but there could be delays.

Because the cap would require a change in the European Union’s sanctions against Russia, unanimous consent among the 27 E.U. nations on the price is needed.

Editors’ Picks

Seven senior E.U. diplomats said there was political support for the policy, but opinions differed on where the price should be set. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they did not want to upset ongoing talks.

The idea is to set the price high enough over the cost of extracting oil to incentivize the Russians to continue selling, but low enough to make a meaningful dent in the profits they earn.

The cost of extraction per barrel in Russia is estimated between $12 and $20; Russian oil recently traded at nearly $70 per barrel on the global markets. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and several European diplomats have cited $60 per barrel as a potential price. But E.U. diplomats from nations closer to Ukraine who take an even stauncher pro-Ukraine line have indicated they would prefer a lower price.

The United States is letting the European Union take the lead in determining a price that can win approval there. A Treasury spokesman said that the United States has no plans to privately propose a price to European partners.

What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.

Diplomats from Poland and its neighbors in the Baltic Sea said they would also like to see the price cap come with commitments for sanctions that would target still-protected European trade with Russia, such as diamonds and fuel for nuclear reactors.

The European Union embargo on Russian oil that kicks in on Dec. 5 also includes a ban on European services to ship, finance or insure Russian oil shipments to destinations outside the bloc, a measure that would disable the infrastructure that moves Russia’s oil to buyers around the world.

To implement the price cap, these European shipping providers will instead be permitted to transport Russian crude outside the bloc only if the shipment complies with the price cap. In other words, it will be left up to them to ensure that the Russian oil they are transporting or insuring has been sold at or below the capped price; otherwise, they would be held legally liable for violating sanctions.

Dutch court sides with squatters of sanctions-hit Russian’s mansion

Ruling against Arkady Volozh in Amsterdam could set awkward precedent in Europe for rich Russians

The Guardian

Pjotr Sauer in Amsterdam

Tue 22 Nov 2022 13.45 GMT

Perched as it is in an upmarket neighbourhood overlooking the scenic Vondelpark, it is not hard to imagine why a Russian billionaire would have been interested in the 1879 five-storey Amsterdam property with a lush private garden.

That billionaire was Arkady Volozh, a co-founder of Russia’s biggest search engine, Yandex. He bought the £3m house in 2019, becoming one of the dozens of wealthy Russians who have invested in property in the Dutch capital.

But since October, the mansion, which had been undergoing extensive refurbishment, has been taken over by a group of squatters, who issued a statement saying they had done so in a protest against Volozh’s reported ties to the Kremlin, and the wider housing crisis in Amsterdam.

Last Wednesday, a Dutch court ruled the squatters did not have to vacate the property.

When the Guardian visited the house, it was hung with banners criticising the war in Ukraine. The Guardian was refused entry to the apartment by one of the squatters, who declined to give her name, citing security issues.

Lighting a cigarette, the squatter said she was relieved by the judge’s verdict. “The law is finally on our side,” she smiled.

Volozh was placed under EU sanctions in June after the bloc accused him of “materially or financially” supporting Russia as the country launched its invasion of Ukraine. For years, Russian opposition figures have argued that Yandex’s news aggregator, which has become a key source of information for many Russians, was censoring articles critical of the government and propping up Kremlin-friendly narratives.

Arkady Volozh was placed under EU sanctions in June. Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

An EU statement at the time of Volozh being placed under sanctions accused Yandex of “promoting state media and narratives in its search results, and deranking and removing content critical of the Kremlin, such as content related to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine”.

Volozh declared the European Commission’s decision “misguided” and quickly resigned from his position as chief executive to prevent Yandex from also being targeted by sanctions.

Heleen over de Linden, a Dutch lawyer who represented the squatters, said of the court ruling: “I was convinced we were in the right, but I was still somewhat surprised to see the judge agree with our arguments. These sanctions are new, so we haven’t had many cases like this before.”

De Linden said that traditionally the Netherlands had strict property rights that favoured owners, meaning the ruling could set an important precedent.

The west has imposed sanctions on hundreds of Russian politicians and prominent businesspeople since the start of the war, often seizing their multimillion-pound properties and yachts. The ruling in Amsterdam exposes the increasingly difficult situation for Russia’s rich and powerful in Europe, a region where their money and investment were once welcomed with open arms.

As an individual under sanctions, Volozh is prevented from entering or transiting EU territory. The sanctions also mean all accounts belonging to Volozh have been frozen, and he is prohibited from making any profit from renting out property.

Volozh’s lawyer, John Wolfs, argued in court that his client was renovating the flat with the aim of subsequently moving into it with his family. “Their main residence is elsewhere. But because Mr Volozh’s activities take place in Europe, they regularly visit Amsterdam. They think it’s a beautiful city,” Wolfs said in court.

Although he is barred from entering the Netherlands on his Russian passport, Volozh acquired Maltese citizenship in 2016 through the controversial “golden passport” scheme, which could open the door for him to travel to and reside in the Netherlands.

Wolfs pointed to a section of EU law that permits individuals under sanctions to use their property for “personal consumption”.

“Assets which are only suitable for personal use or consumption, and therefore cannot be used by a designated person to obtain funds, goods or services, do not fall within the definition of ‘economic resources,’” the Council of Europe said in a report in June 2022. “Therefore they are not covered by the regulations and no authorisation is required to make them available to a designated person.”

De Linden questioned the idea that Volozh intended to move into the apartment. “The property is very nice, but would a Russian billionaire really move to the centre of Amsterdam with his grownup children? This property is not like a massive mansion or a private island that Russian oligarchs usually live on,” she said.

“Even if he would move to the property, his life would be severely restricted here. He can’t pay for food or other services. He isn’t even allowed to pay for a taxi,” the lawyer added.

There were also signs that Volozh was renovating the house in order to rent it, or part of it, out. According to information available on the Dutch public registry, a new address was added to the apartment in 2022, which property experts said could mean that Volozh may wish to rent or sell.

“You don’t add addresses if you’re going to live somewhere yourself, there is no reason to do that. This is usually done so that you can rent out the extra home or plan to split the building and sell it as separate flats,” said Gert Jan Bakker, an expert in the Dutch housing market.

Yvo Amar, a specialist in the field of sanctions and export control, said the refurbishment posed legal questions. “A sanctioned individual is not allowed to refurbish his flat unless his contractor received an exemption from the ministry of finance,” Amar said. “The house grows in value after you renovate it. That goes against the sanctions,” Amar added.

Having heard both sides, the court sided with the squatters. The judge ruled Volozh was unlikely to move into the property given the sanctions and the fact that he had no reason to travel to the Netherlands as he had resigned from his position at Yandex, a company that has its European headquarters in Amsterdam.

In a statement to the Guardian, Wolfs said he planned to appeal. “There is no legal basis whatsoever for squatters to take over a family home simply because it was empty while undergoing renovation. We are appealing the decision, and trust that the rule of law and facts will prevail,” he said.

In London, which according to one estimate has more than 1,895 Russian-owned properties, squatters have also been moving into the mansions of Russian billionaires who have been placed under sanctions. In March, police arrested four squatters who had moved into the £50m London mansion of Oleg Deripaska, an aluminium magnate and close ally of Vladimir Putin.

News round-up, Monday, November 21, 2022.

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Inside the Saudi Strategy to Keep the World Hooked on Oil

The kingdom is working to keep fossil fuels at the center of the world economy for decades to come by lobbying, funding research and using its diplomatic muscle to obstruct climate action.

By Hiroko Tabuchi

Tabuchi reported from the Saudi capital, Riyadh, to examine the kingdom’s vision for an oil-rich future.

• Nov. 21, 2022

Shimmering in the desert is a futuristic research center with an urgent mission: Make Saudi Arabia’s oil-based economy greener, and quickly. The goal is to rapidly build more solar panels and expand electric-car use so the kingdom eventually burns far less oil.

But Saudi Arabia has a far different vision for the rest of the world. A major reason it wants to burn less oil at home is to free up even more to sell abroad. It’s just one aspect of the kingdom’s aggressive long-term strategy to keep the world hooked on oil for decades to come and remain the biggest supplier as rivals slip away.

In recent days, Saudi representatives pushed at the United Nations global climate summit in Egypt to block a call for the world to burn less oil, according to two people present at the meeting, saying that the summit’s final statement “should not mention fossil fuels.” The effort prevailed: After objections from Saudi Arabia and a few other oil producers, the statement failed to include a call for nations to phase out fossil fuels.

The kingdom’s plan for keeping oil at the center of the global economy is playing out around the world in Saudi financial and diplomatic activities, as well as in the realms of research, technology and even education. It is a strategy at odds with the scientific consensus that the world must swiftly move away from fossil fuels, including oil and gas, to avoid the worst consequences of global warming.

The dissonance cuts to the heart of the Saudi kingdom. The government-controlled oil company, Saudi Aramco, already produces one out of every 10 of the world’s barrels of oil and envisions a world where it will be selling even more. Yet climate change and rising temperatures are already threatening life in the desert kingdom like few other places in the world.

Saudi Aramco has become a prolific funder of research into critical energy issues, financing almost 500 studies over the past five years, including research aimed at keeping gasoline cars competitive or casting doubt on electric vehicles, according to the Crossref database, which tracks academic publications. Aramco has collaborated with the United States Department of Energy on high-profile research projects including a six-year effort to develop more efficient gasoline and engines, as well as studies on enhanced oil recovery and other methods to bolster oil production.

Aramco also runs a global network of research centers including a lab near Detroit where it is developing a mobile “carbon capture” device — equipment designed to be attached to a gasoline-burning car, trapping greenhouse gases before they escape the tailpipe. More widely, Saudi Arabia has poured $2.5 billion into American universities over the past decade, making the kingdom one of the nation’s top contributors to higher education.

Visitors to a Saudi forum at the United Nations climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, this month.Credit...Kelvin Chan/Associated Press

Saudi interests have spent close to $140 million since 2016 on lobbyists and others to influence American policy and public opinion, making it one of the top countries spending on U.S. lobbying, according to disclosures to the Department of Justice tallied by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Much of that has focused on bolstering the kingdom’s overall image, particularly after the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 by Saudi operatives. But the Saudi effort has also extended to building alliances in American Corn Belt states that produce ethanol — a product also threatened by electric cars.

Understand the Latest News on Climate Change

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A landmark deal at COP27. Diplomats from nearly 200 countries concluded two weeks of climate talks by agreeing to establish a fund that would help poor countries cope with climate disasters made worse by the greenhouse gases from wealthy nations. The deal represented a breakthrough on one of the most contentious issues at the U.N. summit in Egypt.

U.S. midterm elections. The Democrats’ strong showing essentially ensures that President Biden’s signature climate change law will be fully implemented despite threats from some Republicans to block or undo it, though they’re likely to use their narrow House majority to try to slow it. Here are five main climate-related results from the midterm elections.

Tracking polluters. Climate TRACE, a nonprofit backed by Al Gore and other big environmental donors, is scouring data from satellites to track emissions down to individual power plants, oil fields and cargo ships. The group has cataloged 72,612 emitters and counting, creating a hyperlocal atlas of the human activities that are altering the planet’s chemistry.

U.S. climate threats. The effects of climate change are already “far-reaching and worsening” throughout the United States, posing risks to virtually every aspect of society, according to a draft report being circulated by the federal government. The United States has warmed 68 percent faster than Earth as a whole over the past 50 years, the draft report said.

A new response to rising seas. Consigned to marginal land more than a century ago by the U.S. government, some Native American tribes are trying to move to areas that are better protected from high water and extreme weather. In response, the Biden administration has created a program designed to help relocate communities threatened by climate change.

Behind closed doors at global climate talks, the Saudis have worked to obstruct climate action and research, in particular objecting to calls for a rapid phaseout of fossil fuels. In March, at a United Nations meeting with climate scientists, Saudi Arabia, together with Russia, pushed to delete a reference to “human-induced climate change” from an official document, in effect disputing the scientifically established fact that the burning of fossil fuels by humans is the main driver of the climate crisis.

“People would like us to give up on investment in hydrocarbons. But no,” said Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive, because such a move would only wreak havoc with oil markets. The bigger threat was the “lack of investment in oil and gas,” he said.

A hydrogen vehicle fueling up in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.Credit...Maya Siddiqui/Bloomberg

In a statement, the Saudi Ministry of Energy said it expected that hydrocarbons such as oil, gas and coal would “continue to be an essential part of the global energy mix for decades,” but at the same time the kingdom had “made significant investments in measures to combat climate change.” The statement added, “Far from blocking progress at climate change talks, Saudi Arabia has long played a major role” in negotiations as well as in oil and gas industry groups working to lower emissions.

Saudi Arabia has said it supports the Paris climate agreement, which aims to prevent global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and intends to generate half its electricity from renewables by 2030. The kingdom also plans to plant 10 billion trees in the coming decades, and is building Neom, a futuristic carbon-free city that features speedy public transit, vertical farms and a ski resort.

And Saudi Arabia is hedging its bets. The government has invested in Lucid, the American electric vehicle company, and recently said it would form its own electric vehicle company, Ceer. It is investing in hydrogen, a cleaner alternative to oil and gas.

Still, the green transition at home has been slow. Saudi Arabia still generates less than 1 percent of its electricity from renewables, and it isn’t clear how it plans to plant billions of trees in one of the world’s driest regions.

All the while, the climate threat is getting harder to ignore. At current rates, human survival in the region will be impossible without continuous access to air-conditioning, researchers said last year.

Among researchers at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, a space station-like compound powered by 20,000 solar panels where discussion focuses on solar and wind projects or technologies like carbon capture, the more immediate trade-off is clear.

“If we keep consuming our own oil,” said Anvita Arora, who directs the center’s transport team, “we won’t have any oil left to sell.”

Inside the King Abdullah research center in Riyadh.Credit...Iman Al-Dabbagh for The New York Times

Saudis and the Corn Belt

In early 2020, Rob Port, who hosts the podcast “Plain Talk” on politics and current events in North Dakota, got a call from people representing the Saudi Embassy. Would he be interested in interviewing a Saudi spokesman about oil markets?

The call came from Dan Lederman at the LS2 group, a lobbying agency in Iowa that has also worked for agricultural and ethanol groups, and one of the few lobbying firms that stuck with the Saudis as others cut ties after the Khashoggi murder.

In May of that year, Fahad Nazer, a Saudi Embassy spokesman, appeared on Mr. Port’s podcast. “They were talking about how they have the same interests we do,” Mr. Port said, particularly an interest in “a thriving global oil market.”

That outreach was part of a major effort by LS2group, on behalf of the kingdom, that has reached states including the Dakotas, Texas, Iowa and Ohio. For a retainer of more than $125,000 a month, LS2group targeted local radio hosts, academics, event planners, sports-industry officials, a former football player and a ski and snowboard club owner, according to filings with the Justice Department.

LS2, a lobbying firm in Iowa, has helped promote Saudi interests in corn-producing states.Credit...Kathryn Gamble for The New York Times

Much of that campaign has been on general topics, like the history of close relations with the United States. However, states like Iowa, the nation’s top ethanol producer, could be fertile ground for the Saudis’ view on electric vehicles, said Jeff M. Angelo, a former Iowa state senator who now hosts a talk show and was approached by Saudi representatives.

“Ethanol producers here in Iowa are saying the same thing: ‘Isn’t it terrible that the Biden administration is forcing you to buy an electric car when we could be producing biofuels right here in Iowa, and making money, and supporting our farmers, and being energy independent?’” he said.

Another facet in Saudi Aramco’s effort to perpetuate gasoline cars is the research center near Detroit. There, researchers are working on an innovative device. Attached to a car, it would suck some of the planet-warming carbon dioxide from the exhaust before it can rise into the atmosphere and warm the world.

The prototype, developed by an Aramco lab, traps only a portion of emissions. But it is part of an effort to keep gasoline cars competitive. Transportation uses two-thirds of the world’s petroleum, so any shift away from gasoline vehicles would greatly eat into oil demand.

It is a shift that Aramco does not want to see.

In Detroit, Aramco is working on carbon-capture devices that would fit on vehicles.Credit...Cydni Elledge for The New York Times

“Are electric vehicles going to doom oil?” Khalid A. Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s minister of investment and former chairman of Saudi Aramco, said at an energy forum in 2019. “The answer is no.”

Saudi Aramco has teamed up with major automakers, like Hyundai, to develop an “ultra lean-burn” fuel for hybrid gas-electric vehicles that would still use petroleum. And some Saudi funded research throws doubt on electric vehicles.

In June, the Department of Energy also released the findings of its six-year initiative to research cleaner gasoline engines and fuels, which said that gasoline cars “will dominate new vehicle sales for decades.” Aramco and the department have also collaborated on technical papers on methods to increase the flow of oil from wells.

Sequel to ‘La La Land’

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi energy minister.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, was incredulous. The International Energy Agency, set up a half-century ago to ensure the security of global energy supplies, had just sounded oil’s death knell: It said the world would need to immediately stop approving new oil and gas fields, and to quickly phase out gasoline vehicles, to avert the worst effects of climate change.

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Prince Abdulaziz compared that notion to a Hollywood movie. “It’s a sequel to ‘La La Land,” he quipped at a news conference.

Saudi Arabia continues to explore for oil and gas. It pumps oil at an extremely low price of about $7.50 a barrel, beating almost every major rival. Compared to fracking in the United States, for example, and the extensive flaring of methane that entails, Saudi production is also cleaner than competitors.

Last year, Saudi Arabia joined the United States, Canada, Norway and Qatar on a plan to further reduce drilling emissions. Saudi Aramco said last year it would reach “net zero” by 2050, essentially pledging to stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from oil extraction and production. However, that pledge excludes oil’s main source of planet-warming emissions, those produced by burning it.

“They see that as an advantage. They think that if buyers start discriminating between dirtier barrels and cleaner barrels, Saudi Arabia looks a lot better than oil produced in the Permian Basin in the United States” or other places, said Ben Cahill, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Saudi officials say that a rapid transition to renewables and to cleaner electric vehicles would bring economic chaos, a view they say has been vindicated by he recent turmoil in the global energy market amid a supply shortfall and surging prices.

“Adopting unrealistic policies to reduce emissions by excluding main sources of energy will lead in coming years to unprecedented inflation and an increase in energy prices, and rising unemployment and a worsening of serious social and security problems,” Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, said in July at a United States-Arab summit in Jeddah.

Saudi Arabia’s strategy is playing out at global climate talks.

Back in March, when, Saudi Arabia and Russia pushed to delete a reference to “human-induced climate change” from a policy document at a United Nations meeting, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, a French climate scientist leading the session, fought back and won.

“It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the climate,” she later said. “This is the reason why I took the floor to argue.”

The Saudi intervention was the latest example of what other negotiators describe as a yearslong effort to slow progress by homing in on scientific uncertainties, downplaying the consequences, emphasizing the costs of climate action and delaying negotiations on procedural points.

Last year, Saudi Arabia successfully helped strike a sentence from a United Nations report that called for an active phaseout of fossil fuels. The statement “limits options for decision makers,” a Saudi adviser to the kingdom’s minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources said, according to documents leaked by the environmental group Greenpeace. “Omit the sentence.”

“They have a strategic agenda, said Saleemul Huq, director of the International Center for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh, “which is they don’t want anything to happen.”

At the latest round of talks in Egypt, Saudi Arabia highlighted an alternative vision, one that relies on large-scale carbon capture and storage. By 2027, the kingdom will build a facility capable of storing as much carbon dioxide as 2 million gasoline cars would emit in a year.

That would be a breakthrough, because carbon capture has yet to be proven at scale. Yet it was Saudi Arabia’s way of preparing for a warming world, said Adel al-Jubeir, the kingdom’s climate envoy. “In Saudi Arabia, we’re committed to being ahead of it.”

Former Arab enemies re-united in VIP seats at World Cup opening ceremony

On Sunday, the first day of the competition, the event allowed Qatari monarch Tamim Al-Thani to stage his country's return to prominence in the Middle East.

By Benjamin Barthe

Q atar's Emir Tamim Al-Thani makes a speech from the VIP section at the opening match of the football World Cup in Doha, November 20, 2022. MANAN VATSYAYANA / AFP

In major international events, who sits where in the VIP section is a diplomatic exercise requiring tact. Organizers want to avoid a faux pas, and bring people together. On Sunday, November 20, during the opening ceremony for the football World Cup in the Al-Bayt stadium in Al-Khor, Qatari monarch Tamim Al-Thani played the game with skill.

In the VIP section, the sovereign found himself alongside two leaders who, less than two years ago, dreamed of bringing his country to its knees: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as "MBS," and Egyptian President Abdal Fattah el-Sissi. Their presence, a nod to the World Cup slogan "Football unites the world," allowed Doha to stage its return to prominence in the Middle East.

Between 2017 and 2021, Saudi Arabia and Egypt contributed to the diplomatic and commercial blockade imposed on Qatar, which was stigmatized at the time as the Gulf's troublemaker, guilty of consorting with Islamists and doing deals with Iranian enemies. The cold war in the region reached such a peak that at one point the Saudi press reported on a project to dig a canal between the kingdom and Qatar and dump nuclear waste in it.

The resilience shown by Doha and the election of Joe Biden in the United States, who was highly critical of the Saudi leader, convinced MBS to lift the embargo, which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain had also joined.

In a signal of the thawing of relations between Riyadh and Doha since that crisis, MBS wore a broad smile during the ceremony and even put a Qatari scarf around his neck. According to Le Monde sources, the heir to the throne, who is passionate about football, plans to attend several other World Cup matches, including Saudi Arabia's first game on Tuesday against Argentina.

Two important absences

In another sign of the détente thanks to football, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a supporter of Qatar during the blockade, was photographed greeting Egyptian President Mr. el-Sissi. This is the first direct contact between the two men, who have been at loggerheads for nearly a decade. Mr. Erdogan refused to recognize Mr. el-Sissi's legitimacy after he came to power in 2013, overthrowing President Mohamed Morsi from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Doha's carefully-orchestrated diplomacy nevertheless suffered from two important absences: that of Mohammed bin Zayed, the president of the United Arab Emirates and former mastermind of the blockade, who was represented by the Emir of Dubai, Mohammed bin Rachid Al-Maktoum; and that of Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, the King of Bahrain, who still has frosty relations with his Qatari neighbor.

No Western official was present on Sunday, a sign of the controversies caused by the tournament in Western countries. But the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken was expected in Doha on Monday for the United States' opening match against Wales. It was still uncertain on Sunday whether or not there would be an Iranian representative for the country's match against England, also on Monday.

According to a well-informed source, a few weeks ago the Qatari foreign minister half-jokingly suggested to Mr. Blinken that he arrange a meeting with his Iranian counterpart during the scheduled match between Iran and the USA on Tuesday, November 29, in an attempt to resuscitate the Iranian nuclear talks. Since then, given the intensification of anti-regime protests in Iran and the accompanying outrage, this suggestion has probably been filed under "faux pas to avoid."

Benjamin Barthe

The Winter World CupQatar Has Spent Years Preparing, But Is the World Ready?

Qatar has spent several years developing its national team ahead of the World Cup, which kicks off on Sunday. The global public, though, is skeptical of the event. Nobody quite knows what to expect.

By Marc Hujer und Gerhard Pfeil

It’s an afternoon about two weeks before the World Cup is set to begin and there is no one to be seen in the Doha Sports Park. No fans, no masses of people, not a soul around to hear the admonishments coming from the speakers.

Khalifa International Stadium, which will host England against Iran on Monday, the first full day of this year’s tournament, with Germany versus Japan to follow on Wednesday, lies shrouded in the haze of the midday heat. Aside from a couple of workers who have been assigned the task of painting a maze on the ground for children, the site is vacant.

The stadium loudspeakers are all dangling from their wires, but they are nevertheless operational. A man’s voice can be heard coming from them, reading out in English the "penalties" that accrue for various improprieties. An initial soundcheck ahead of the tournament.

DER SPIEGEL 47/2022

The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 47/2022 (November 19th, 2022) of DER SPIEGEL.

SPIEGEL International

The voice says: 10,000 rials for garbage thrown on the street.

The voice says: 10,000 rials for leaving behind leftover food.

It keeps going, listing other infractions, all related to littering, though when it comes to the penalty, it doesn’t really matter what one leaves behind: chewing gum, drink cans or newspapers, it all comes with a fine of 10,000 rials. Which is quite a chunk if change. The equivalent of 2,650 euros, to be precise.

But how strictly will it be enforced? How concerned are they about the crowds of foreigners that will soon be descending on their country?

On the one hand, you have Qatar, an inflexible host country that ignores human rights, treats workers like Western industrialized countries did in the distant past and still views homosexuality as a crime.

On the other is an indignant global public, with some having threatened to boycott the event, insisting they won’t be tuning in this time to watch the spectacle. In Germany, a number of bars and restaurants have said they won’t be showing the games in their venues.

It remains to be seen, however, if they will actually follow through once the games begin. What will happen if the German team is actually successful and advances beyond the group phase to the quarters, the semis and perhaps even the final? Will there still be people in the country like Bundestag President Bärbel Bas, who said in a recent interview that for her, mulled wine simply doesn’t fit with football? A statement, it should be said, that doesn’t make all that much sense given the fact that German football stadiums are just as full for December league games as they are in spring.

Will everyone continue to adhere to their principles once the ball actually starts rolling in Qatar?

The Qataris have said on a number of occasions that they have plenty of experience with Western double standards, not least from the Germans, who have never shied away from earning a bit of money in Qatar. A subsidiary of the German rail company Deutsche Bahn, for example, is heading up the construction of Doha’s subway system. Siemens, meanwhile, is taking care of the technology in the stadiums. Questions about human rights weren’t much of an issue in those deals.

Football Development Aid from Europe

The Germans, says one Qatari who has long had tight business relations with the country, are far more preferable to him than the French, who just want to sell their products. The Germans, on the other hand, he says, will also sell their technology if they find it advantageous.

Qatar has spent billions on preparations for the World Cup, but the country has also invested maximum effort in ensuring that its national team can actually compete. And part of that effort has entailed bringing in expertise from Europe.

Qatar is anything but a traditional football country, and it has never before qualified for a World Cup. It also doesn’t have a fan culture of the kind seen in Europe, with turnout for Qatari league games rarely more than 1,000 spectators. Which doesn’t mean, however, that the sport plays no role in the country.

By 7 a.m., the numerous artificial grass fields in Doha are already full, with players coming out early to beat the heat. On television, meanwhile, fixtures from the English Premier League are broadcast almost constantly, along with games from the Qatari Stars League, founded in 1963 as the country’s top league for men and home to 12 sides. But excitement alone isn’t enough to be able to compete in the World Cup.

Not far from where the Khalifa International Stadium now stands, the Qatari state opened up the Aspire Academy in 2005, a modern training center for top athletes. It was envisioned as a place to develop local players to compete at the highest levels without having to buy in talent from abroad – as Qatar did in 2015 when the handball world championships were held in the country.

When it came to football, Qatar wanted to go to battle with a team it had developed itself. Made in Qatar.

The decision to develop players in the country was taken following the failed attempt to improve the quality of local players by sending them overseas. Until just a few years ago, the Qatar Football Association had been sending its best players abroad to partner teams in Europe, such as Linzer ASK in Austria or the Belgian team KAS Eupen. But the association quickly realized that its players were having trouble establishing themselves and were spending most of their time on the bench.

So the QFA brought the players back home and imported well-known stars from European leagues, like Xavi from Spain or Samuel Eto’o of Cameroon, to raise the level of play back home. The country’s own talent was given preferential treatment in the hopes that they would ripen into top players.

Once Qatar was chosen back in 2010 to host the 2022 World Cup, the QFA started the process of constructing a team for the tournament. European trainers were brought in, including German talent developer Stephan Hildebrandt. He would go on to spent five years in Qatar, before returning to Germany in 2019.

We visited Hildebrandt, 49, in early September at his lakeside home outside of Berlin. Earlier in his career, Hildebrandt was head of Hamburger SV’s youth academy and then sport director for Energie Cottbus before he went to Qatar in 2014. He says he was looking for a new challenge. "It was difficult early on," he says. In Qatar, he says, there are only around 55,000 registered players, in contrast to several million in Germany. Hildebrandt and his assistants scoured the country’s schools, sports halls and clubs for talented players. The best players received a spot in the Aspire Academy. For the trainer team of Félix Sánchez, a Spaniard who now coaches the Qatari national team, the facility offered first-class amenities, including watered, artificial grass fields and huge fitness rooms.

A Football App for the Emir

But the players, says Hildebrandt, would continually find excuses for why they couldn’t show up for practice. "A traffic jam, the heat, a sandstorm, anything they could think of," he says. Most Qataris, he explains, are wealthy and don’t need to work particularly hard to earn money or advance in society.

At some point, though, the coaches were able to awaken the ambition of their handpicked players. The prospect of achieving fame through football became a powerful motivation. They trained up to eight times a week at the academy. Hildebrandt says that Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, a football fanatic, was able to follow the team’s development through an app developed specifically for him.

“Please go, immediately! The Qataris aren’t joking!”

Austrian security guards

In 2019, Qatar managed the shocking feat of winning the Asian Cup. In preparation for the World Cup in their homeland, the Qatari team spent several months in training camps in Spain and Austria. The players, though, are almost completely shielded from the outside world. A team of ghosts.

When the team spent the summer in Leogang, an Austrian town not far from Salzburg, the football pitch on the outskirts of town was carefully surrounded by screens so that nobody could see what was going on inside. The coaches, including the German goalkeeper trainer Julius Büscher, stayed in hotels in town and would walk to the pitch each day. The players, many of whom were lodged with families in the surrounding area, would drive to practice in rental cars.

No spectators were allowed in. And those who tried to get inside anyway were immediately intercepted by guards. "Please go, immediately! The Qataris aren’t joking!" Later, when the team was in Vienna, attempts to speak with players or coaches likewise proved unsuccessful. Instead of presenting the team’s stars, like team captain Hassan Al-Haydos, as ambassadors for the country and allowing them to speak about football in Qatar, they were hidden from view – likely out of concern that they might trigger yet another debate by saying the wrong thing.

Hildebrandt isn’t surprised. He is a cosmopolitan type and kept a journal during his time in Qatar, which is full of bizarre and thoughtful observations. Hildebrandt is fully aware of the deficits in Qatar, like the lack of women’s rights and the exploitation of foreign laborers. He met his wife in Doha, a woman from the Philippines who worked in a hotel and who sued her employer for poor treatment. She spent time in a pre-deportation custody, but a court then ruled in her favor, and she found a higher-paid job in a different company.

Hildebrandt is familiar with the dark sides of Qatar, the gigantomania and the unbridled consumerism of the elites. But he is also bothered by "Western cultural imperialism," the ignorance he sees in many Europeans and their self-righteousness. "I have a problem with the expectation that what we developed over centuries – the rule of law, secularization, open societies – should work perfectly all over the world in the blink of an eye," Hildebrandt says. He would like to see more understanding for a country that he believes is on the right track.

Hildebrandt is optimistic about Team Qatar advancing out of its group, which also includes Ecuador, the Netherlands and Senegal. Many of the preparation matches ahead of the World Cup were rather disappointing. In September, Qatar lost to Croatia’s U-23 national team 0:3 in a match played in Vienna.

Many Qataris nevertheless have high expectations for their team, including a former businessman who is a member of the Consultative Assembly, the country’s legislative body. Sitting in the lobby of the InterContinental Doha – The City, he says he can’t understand why the world isn’t more excited about the beginning of the World Cup. Why German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is so critical of his country. And why Paris Saint-Germain, the team that the Qatar Investment Authority purchased, the team for which both Neymar and Messi play, didn’t advertise the World Cup even once. Not even with a patch on the arms of their jerseys, for example.

When asked if it would be a success if the Qatari team managed to make it out of the group phase, the assembly member quickly responds: "It would be a success if we made it into the final."

Is he serious? He smiles. But he doesn’t laugh.

News round-up, Wednesday, November 16, 2022.

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“Joe Biden questioned the possibility that the missile that hit Poland on Tuesday, in a rural region bordering Ukraine, was launched from Russia. “There is preliminary information that contradicts that,” he said in a meeting with reporters after a meeting with G20 leaders in Bali, where they discussed Russia’s shelling of Ukraine and the incident on Polish territory. “I don’t want to say it until we have fully investigated it. But it’s unlikely, because of the trajectory, that it was launched by Russia. We will see.””

— www.abc.es

The latest IEA's Monthly Gas Statistics report including August 2022 data shows that for Total OECD

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UK inflation hits 11.1%, a four-decade high, on the back of soaring energy prices

After millions of British households were hit hard by rising energy bills and an escalating cost of living, the UK's soaring inflation is even higher than feared and hits the poorest families the hardest.

Le Monde with AFP

Published on November 16, 2022 at 09h25

British inflation has accelerated to the highest level for 41 years, driven by soaring energy, food and transport prices in a worsening cost-of-living crisis, official data showed on Wednesday, November 16.

The Consumer Prices Index hit 11.1% in October, reaching the highest level since 1981, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement. That compared with 10.1% in September, which matched the level in July and was the highest in 40 years.

Domestic fuel bills rocketed further despite the UK government's energy price freeze as the market faced fresh fallout from key producer Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The October figure beat market expectations of 10.7% and was higher than the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast peak.

"Rising gas and electricity prices drove headline inflation to its highest level for over 40 years, despite the Energy Price Guarantee," said ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner.

Over the last year, gas prices have leapt by 130% and electricity prices by 66%, according to the ONS. Food prices and transport costs also propelled inflation higher.

Runaway inflation comes despite Britain's energy support, which sought to limit annual energy bills at an average of £2,500 per year. Finance minister Jeremy Hunt, speaking on the eve of his key government budget, blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine for spiking prices, as well as fallout from the pandemic. "The aftershock of Covid and Putin's invasion of Ukraine is driving up inflation in the UK and around the world," Mr. Hunt said.

"This insidious tax is eating into pay cheques, household budgets and savings, while thwarting any chance of long-term economic growth."

The Ukraine conflict has also sent inflation soaring to the highest level in decades worldwide, sparking economic turmoil and forcing major central banks to ramp up interest rates.

The Bank of England this month sprang its biggest interest rate hike since 1989 to combat sky-high inflation – and warned the UK economy may experience a record-long recession until mid-2024.

The BoE said it was lifting borrowing costs by 0.75 percentage points to three percent – the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis – to cool UK inflation that it saw peaking at almost 11%.

Mr. Hunt added on Wednesday that "tough" decisions would be needed in Thursday's budget to help the BoE meet its 2.0% inflation target. "We cannot have long-term, sustainable growth with high inflation," he said.

Le Monde with AFP

NATO to Meet After Deadly Blast in Poland

Here’s what we know:

The Kremlin denies involvement in an explosion that killed two people near Poland’s border with Ukraine.

• NATO envoys will gather as the explosion in Poland alarms the alliance.

• Here is what officials are saying about the explosion in Poland.

• China affirms ties with Russia but signals it is becoming more guarded about the war.

• The C.I.A. director holds talks in Ukraine for the second time in two months.

NATO envoys will gather as the explosion in Poland alarms the alliance.

A day after a deadly explosion in Poland raised anxieties that Russia’s war in Ukraine could spill into the territory of a NATO member, representatives of the alliance planned to meet on Wednesday morning in Brussels to discuss the blast.

The explosion on Tuesday, in a farming village about four miles from the Ukrainian border, killed two people, according to Poland’s government. The leaders of Ukraine, which is not in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, called the incident an intentional Russian strike on a NATO member. But the Kremlin denied involvement, and no evidence has emerged that the strike was intentional, or that Russia was responsible.

The United States and its allies offered their “full support and assistance” for the Polish investigation into the blast.

While the Polish Foreign Ministry said the missile was Russian-made, the country’s president, Andrzej Duda, told reporters, “It was most likely a Russian-made missile, but this is all still under investigation at the moment.” Both Ukraine and Russia use Soviet-era Russian made missiles.

President Biden said on Wednesday that initial information about the missile’s trajectory suggested that it was “unlikely” that it was fired from Russia. But it was unclear from the president’s remarks whether he meant the missile had probably not been fired from inside Russia’s territorial borders, or had probably not been fired by Russian forces in Ukraine or elsewhere.

President Biden expressed sympathy for the two people who died in an explosion near Poland’s border with Ukraine but suggested that the missile that detonated there had probably not been fired from Russia.CreditCredit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

Mr. Biden spoke to reporters on the Indonesian island of Bali after attending an emergency meeting of leaders from NATO and the Group of 7 nations on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit. That summit has been dominated by the war in Ukraine and its effects on the global economy, with Mr. Biden and allied leaders repeating on Tuesday their denunciations of Russia’s invasion. Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, skipped the summit.

The explosion in Poland happened on a day when Russia unleashed one of its broadest barrages of aerial strikes against Ukraine since its invasion began in February, firing about 90 missiles at targets across the country, primarily electrical infrastructure.

Russia’s Defense Ministry insisted that it had not fired at targets near the Polish border. But Russian rocket strikes were reported in Ukraine’s Volyn region, which lies across the border from Przewodow, the Polish village where the blast occurred.

The New York Times

Military analysts noted that both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries could be using Russian-made missiles, leaving open a number of possible causes for the explosion. It could have involved a Russian missile that flew off course or was knocked off its trajectory by an intercepting Ukrainian air defense missile, or a missile fired by Ukraine to shoot down an incoming Russian strike.

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said that he believed “this has nothing to do with Russia.” He told a news conference in Bali: “Maybe this is a technical mistake, or any other explanation will be found.”

The United Nations’ secretary general, António Guterres, said he was “very concerned” by the explosion. “It is absolutely essential to avoid escalating the war in Ukraine,” he said in a statement.

Since the beginning of the war, the United States and its allies have sought to keep the fighting limited to Ukrainian territory and to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, even as NATO members have supplied a steady stream of weapons to Kyiv.

But if the explosion is determined to have been a deliberate attack, it could have broad consequences. Article 5 of the NATO charter commits its members to mutual defense, stating that an attack on one is an attack on all. That could be taken as requiring a concerted response to the blast in Poland. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, eager for more NATO support, said Tuesday that Russia had committed an “attack on collective security,” hinting at Article 5.

Under Article 4 of the charter, any member country can request a formal consultation among all members on an issue of concern. A spokesman for the Polish government had said that it was considering invoking the provision.

Late on Tuesday, the U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd J. Austin III, and the secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, spoke with their Polish counterparts. Mr. Austin assured Poland’s defense minister “of the ironclad commitment of the United States to defend Poland,” according to a statement provided by the Pentagon.

Farnaz Fassihi, Edward Wong, Eric Schmitt, Chris Buckley and Jim Tankersley contributed reporting.

— Richard Pérez-Peña and Shashank Bengali

Here is what officials are saying about the explosion in Poland.

An explosion in Poland near the border with Ukraine on Tuesday sparked immediate and conflicting explanations from governments grappling with the potential for Russia’s war in Ukraine to spill over into a broader conflict.

Here is a look at what nations involved are saying:

Poland

President Andrzej Duda said the cause of the explosion was “most likely a Russian-made missile” but that it was still under investigation. Mr. Duda said it was “highly likely” that he would invoke Article 4 of the NATO charter, under which members confer when a nation’s territorial integrity or security has been threatened.

Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s foreign minister, summoned Russia’s ambassador to demand “immediate detailed explanations” for the blast, according to a statement from the ministry.

Russia

Russia’s Defense Ministry denied involvement. On Telegram, the ministry wrote that any statements by Polish officials or media outlets about Russian missiles hitting the village were a “deliberate provocation.” Russia launched a widespread missile attack on Ukraine on Tuesday, with roughly 90 missiles aimed primarily at the country’s electrical infrastructure.

“No strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made,” the ministry said, although Ukrainian reports disputed that account.

Ukraine

The explosion’s proximity to the border — about four miles — has raised the possibility that it was caused by the remains of a missile shot down by Ukraine’s air defense systems, or by a Ukrainian air defense missile. Both Russia and Ukraine are believed to use Russian-made missiles.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said in a Twitter post that the explosion in Poland was not caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, seized on the possibility of Russian involvement and called it evidence of “a very significant escalation.” He alluded to Poland’s membership in NATO by saying Russia had waged an “attack on collective security.”

United States

Speaking on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting in Indonesia, President Biden said that “preliminary information” indicated the missile had not been fired from Russia, without addressing whether it could have been launched by Russian troops in Ukraine or from the Black Sea. In response to a reporter’s question, he said, “I don’t want to say that until we completely investigate,” but “the trajectory” of the missile made it unlikely “that it was fired from Russia.”

— Victoria Kim

News round-up, Tuesday, November 15, 2022.

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“Sefe still had profit and capital assets of over one billion euros. But equity most recently amounted to minus 2.1 billion euros. “There is therefore a commercial balance sheet over-indebtedness,” it now says in the justification for the takeover, which was published in the Federal Gazette on Monday afternoon. “A large number of business partners are showing reluctance to enter into and continue business relations with Sefe.” A change of ownership, including an increase in equity, is now intended to change that - and in such a way that no money flows to the Russian owners.”

— www.sueddeutsche.de

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Editor's Pick:

Germany takes over Gazprom subsidiary

November 14, 2022, 4:01

Ukraine conflict : In future in German hands: the German Gazprom subsidiary, now under the name of Sefe.Open detailed view

In German hands in the future: the German Gazprom subsidiary, now under the name Sefe. (Photo: imago stock&people/imago/Steinach)

The German government uses legal tricks to secure the former Gazprom Germania - in order to provide it again with sufficient capital for the tough gas business

By Michael Bauchmüller

Following the gas group Uniper, the German government is now also taking over the German subsidiary of the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom. The aim is to secure gas supplies, the Federal Ministry of Economics said on Monday. Otherwise, the over-indebted company would have been threatened with insolvency.

Gazprom Germania has been under federal trusteeship since June. The company trades in gas, operates gas networks and is responsible for around one-fifth of Germany's gas storage facilities. Since the Federal Network Agency took over the management, the company has been called Safe Energy for Europe, or Sefe for short. However, Sefe, like the gas importer Uniper, which was also nationalized, subsequently accumulated massive losses - if only because of the loss of Russian supplies in the face of significantly higher gas prices.

Sefe still had profit and capital assets of over one billion euros. But equity most recently amounted to minus 2.1 billion euros. "There is therefore a commercial balance sheet over-indebtedness," it now says in the justification for the takeover, which was published in the Federal Gazette on Monday afternoon. "A large number of business partners are showing reluctance to enter into and continue business relations with Sefe." A change of ownership, including an increase in equity, is now intended to change that - and in such a way that no money flows to the Russian owners.

To this end, the federal government is resorting to a number of legal tricks. For example, the revenue and capital reserves will be released "to reduce the balance sheet loss to be offset. The capital stock is reduced from 225 million euros to zero - only to be increased again to 225 million euros the very next moment. This time, however, this share capital is held by a specially founded "Securing Energy for Europe Holding". This step, in turn, is to be entered "ex officio without delay" in the commercial register of Sefe. The end result is a "debt-equity swap" that will give Sefe more than seven billion euros in equity in the future. "A complete change of ownership will take place," says the notice in the Federal Gazette. That's how fast it can happen when the federal government wants to take over the reins.

Until now, the federal government had shied away from expropriating Russian firms, partly for fear of retaliation against German companies. Now it argues potential threats to the commonwealth should Sefe collapse. But the Russian owners can sue, "within a month of the announcement."

Xi Jinping returns to diplomatic stage seeking dialogue with the West

The Chinese president met with US President Joe Biden on Monday for more than three hours, and on Tuesday morning with French President Emmanuel Macron. Next up is the Australian prime minister, for the first time in six years.

By Frédéric Lemaître (Beijing (China) correspondent), Brice Pedroletti (Bali (Indonesia), special correspondent) and Philippe Ricard (Bali (Indonesia), special correspondent)

Published on November 15, 2022 at 10h56, updated at 12h04 on November 15, 2022

Like a sportsman long absent from competitions due to a zero-Covid strategy, Chinese President Xi Jinping decided to make his international comeback in two stages this fall. First a warm-up in Uzbekistan, in mid-September, where he was to meet up with a group of friendly countries gathered within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. That was an opportunity to cross paths with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This week, though, comes the real competition, the global arena: the G20 in Bali, Indonesia. In the absence of his Russian partner, the Chinese leader is confronting the West, more than eight months after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

As a curtain raiser, the meeting with US President Joe Biden on Monday, November 14, kept its promise. The two leaders, who have talked remotely five times since 2020, shook hands without masks. Their meeting lasted more than three hours.

They chose to start in a friendly matter. Mr. Biden, buoyed by the mid-term elections from which he emerged as a partial winner, is not the type to humiliate his opponents, unlike his predecessor Donald Trump. "I'm really glad to be able to see you again in person," he said at the beginning of the meeting in the hotel where Mr. Xi is staying. The latter, now assured of staying in power as long as he wishes, is in no hurry. His goal is to continue modernizing his country so that it becomes the world's leading power in 2049. "We need to find the right direction for the bilateral relationship going forward and elevate the relationship," the Chinese leader said.

Russia strives to avoid G20 isolation as China and India distance themselves

Traditional allies voice concern over Ukraine war as draft communique highlights damage to world economy

Patrick Wintour in Bali

Tue 15 Nov 2022 08.26 GMT

Russia has been battling to prevent diplomatic isolation at the G20 summit in Bali as its traditional allies – China and India – started to distance themselves from the war in Ukraine, which a draft communique said had caused untold economic damage to the world.

Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, and Xi Jinping, the president of China, both voiced concern about the war without breaking from their previous defence of Moscow.

US officials were still pushing for the final communique to pin more blame on Russia. The draft includes language noting “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine” and stresses that “it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy”.

The summit’s host, Indonesia, has been trying to keep references to the war to a minimum, arguing the G20 is not a security forum and that reiteration of well known positions will prevent progress on issues such as global debt and post-pandemic recovery.

The summit being held on the Indonesian island of Bali marks the first time the G20 leaders have met since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow has described as a “special military operation”. The war and worries over global inflation, food and energy security have overshadowed the meeting.

In his address, Xi warned against the “weaponisation” of food and energy, adding that he opposed nuclear war in all circumstances, remarks that cast a shadow over Russia’s repeated threats to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

“We must firmly oppose politicisation, instrumentalisation and weaponisation of food and energy problems,” Xi said.

Modi said it was necessary to recognise the UN had failed as a multilateral institution, putting greater pressure on the G20 to find solutions. He said it was time for a ceasefire and for diplomacy to come to the fore.

G20: Zelenskiy calls for 'just' end to Ukraine war, with no compromises

In a video address that the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, carefully missed by staying in his hotel, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said it was time for the war to be stopped, saying it had caused thousands of deaths. But he stressed that a ceasefire was only possible when armed Russian troops left Ukraine territory.

Wearing his now-familiar green T-shirt, he said: “I am convinced now is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be stopped. It will save thousands of lives.”

Speaking in Ukrainian to the single most influential audience he has addressed since the war started, Zelenskiy tried to pitch himself as a man prepared to reach an agreement with Russia but only on terms that protected Ukrainian sovereignty, and recognised the valour with which his troops had fought to protect their homeland.

In a pitch to Xi, he condemned “the crazy threats of nuclear weapons that Russian officials resort to. There are and cannot be any excuses for nuclear blackmail,” he added, pointedly thanking the “G19” – excluding Russia – for “making this clear”.

According to Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, Xi told the US president, Joe Biden, at their bilateral meeting on Monday evening that “nuclear weapons should not be used and nuclear wars should not be fought”.

The Ukrainian leader also called for the expansion and indefinite extension of a grain deal brokered by the UN and Turkey in July.

Much of the diplomatic arm-twisting at the G20 focuses on the terms by which Russia will allow the deal to continue. It has already suspended cooperation once, saying the west had not done enough to persuade insurers and shipping companies to distribute Russian wheat and fertilisers.

Russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of the world’s wheat and barley exports, a fifth of its maize, and more than half of all sunflower oil. The Russian invasion had blocked 20m tonnes of grain in its ports until the deal was reached in July. Russia says the export deal has only been partially implemented.

But Russia says the deal is lopsided because western sanctions have indirectly continued to cast a shadow over the exports of Russian grain by affecting payments, insurance and shipping.

The grain deal has been a rare patch of diplomatic sunlight, but is up for renewal this Friday.

The deal allowing exports past the Russian navy from three Ukrainian seaports has been critical to lowering grain prices.

The dispute over the future of the grain deal is part of a wider diplomatic battle between Russia and the west to convince sceptical opinion in the global south that right is on their side. In his speech, Zelenskiy, fresh from visiting Kherson, a city recaptured from Russia this week, gave little ground on the terms for any peace settlement.

He said such an agreement could be signed at an international conference, adding that Russia would be required to hand over some of its assets as compensation for the task of rebuilding Ukraine. In a symbolic vote, the UN general assembly voted on Monday to approve a resolution recognising that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine, in a non-binding move backed by 94 of its 193 members.

Summary (BBC UK)

1. A draft G20 declaration, seen by news agencies, condemns the Ukraine war and says it is exacerbating fragilities in the global economy

2. We won't get to see the finalised statement until tomorrow - and Russia has already attacked the "politicisation" of the declaration

3. UK PM Rishi Sunak has specifically criticised Russia's "barbaric" war in Ukraine

4. Sunak tells Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov - who is attending the G20 in Bali instead of President Putin - that his country should "get out" of Ukraine

5. It is the first time a British prime minister has directly confronted a senior Russian official since the invasion began

6. Earlier on Tuesday Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky appeared at the G20 via videolink, calling for the war to be stopped

7. Meanwhile, Sunak told reporters that China posed a "systemic challenge" to the UK - but stopped short of calling it a national security threat

8. On Monday Joe Biden held his first meeting with China's leader Xi Jinping since becoming US president

News round-up, Tuesday, November 15, 2022.

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“Sefe still had profit and capital assets of over one billion euros. But equity most recently amounted to minus 2.1 billion euros. “There is therefore a commercial balance sheet over-indebtedness,” it now says in the justification for the takeover, which was published in the Federal Gazette on Monday afternoon. “A large number of business partners are showing reluctance to enter into and continue business relations with Sefe.” A change of ownership, including an increase in equity, is now intended to change that - and in such a way that no money flows to the Russian owners.”

— www.sueddeutsche.de

View fullsize

Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…

Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…

Editor's Pick:

Germany takes over Gazprom subsidiary

November 14, 2022, 4:01

Ukraine conflict : In future in German hands: the German Gazprom subsidiary, now under the name of Sefe.Open detailed view

In German hands in the future: the German Gazprom subsidiary, now under the name Sefe. (Photo: imago stock&people/imago/Steinach)

The German government uses legal tricks to secure the former Gazprom Germania - in order to provide it again with sufficient capital for the tough gas business

By Michael Bauchmüller

Following the gas group Uniper, the German government is now also taking over the German subsidiary of the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom. The aim is to secure gas supplies, the Federal Ministry of Economics said on Monday. Otherwise, the over-indebted company would have been threatened with insolvency.

Gazprom Germania has been under federal trusteeship since June. The company trades in gas, operates gas networks and is responsible for around one-fifth of Germany's gas storage facilities. Since the Federal Network Agency took over the management, the company has been called Safe Energy for Europe, or Sefe for short. However, Sefe, like the gas importer Uniper, which was also nationalized, subsequently accumulated massive losses - if only because of the loss of Russian supplies in the face of significantly higher gas prices.

Sefe still had profit and capital assets of over one billion euros. But equity most recently amounted to minus 2.1 billion euros. "There is therefore a commercial balance sheet over-indebtedness," it now says in the justification for the takeover, which was published in the Federal Gazette on Monday afternoon. "A large number of business partners are showing reluctance to enter into and continue business relations with Sefe." A change of ownership, including an increase in equity, is now intended to change that - and in such a way that no money flows to the Russian owners.

To this end, the federal government is resorting to a number of legal tricks. For example, the revenue and capital reserves will be released "to reduce the balance sheet loss to be offset. The capital stock is reduced from 225 million euros to zero - only to be increased again to 225 million euros the very next moment. This time, however, this share capital is held by a specially founded "Securing Energy for Europe Holding". This step, in turn, is to be entered "ex officio without delay" in the commercial register of Sefe. The end result is a "debt-equity swap" that will give Sefe more than seven billion euros in equity in the future. "A complete change of ownership will take place," says the notice in the Federal Gazette. That's how fast it can happen when the federal government wants to take over the reins.

Until now, the federal government had shied away from expropriating Russian firms, partly for fear of retaliation against German companies. Now it argues potential threats to the commonwealth should Sefe collapse. But the Russian owners can sue, "within a month of the announcement."

Xi Jinping returns to diplomatic stage seeking dialogue with the West

The Chinese president met with US President Joe Biden on Monday for more than three hours, and on Tuesday morning with French President Emmanuel Macron. Next up is the Australian prime minister, for the first time in six years.

By Frédéric Lemaître (Beijing (China) correspondent), Brice Pedroletti (Bali (Indonesia), special correspondent) and Philippe Ricard (Bali (Indonesia), special correspondent)

Published on November 15, 2022 at 10h56, updated at 12h04 on November 15, 2022

Like a sportsman long absent from competitions due to a zero-Covid strategy, Chinese President Xi Jinping decided to make his international comeback in two stages this fall. First a warm-up in Uzbekistan, in mid-September, where he was to meet up with a group of friendly countries gathered within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. That was an opportunity to cross paths with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This week, though, comes the real competition, the global arena: the G20 in Bali, Indonesia. In the absence of his Russian partner, the Chinese leader is confronting the West, more than eight months after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

As a curtain raiser, the meeting with US President Joe Biden on Monday, November 14, kept its promise. The two leaders, who have talked remotely five times since 2020, shook hands without masks. Their meeting lasted more than three hours.

They chose to start in a friendly matter. Mr. Biden, buoyed by the mid-term elections from which he emerged as a partial winner, is not the type to humiliate his opponents, unlike his predecessor Donald Trump. "I'm really glad to be able to see you again in person," he said at the beginning of the meeting in the hotel where Mr. Xi is staying. The latter, now assured of staying in power as long as he wishes, is in no hurry. His goal is to continue modernizing his country so that it becomes the world's leading power in 2049. "We need to find the right direction for the bilateral relationship going forward and elevate the relationship," the Chinese leader said.

Russia strives to avoid G20 isolation as China and India distance themselves

Traditional allies voice concern over Ukraine war as draft communique highlights damage to world economy

Patrick Wintour in Bali

Tue 15 Nov 2022 08.26 GMT

Russia has been battling to prevent diplomatic isolation at the G20 summit in Bali as its traditional allies – China and India – started to distance themselves from the war in Ukraine, which a draft communique said had caused untold economic damage to the world.

Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, and Xi Jinping, the president of China, both voiced concern about the war without breaking from their previous defence of Moscow.

US officials were still pushing for the final communique to pin more blame on Russia. The draft includes language noting “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine” and stresses that “it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy”.

The summit’s host, Indonesia, has been trying to keep references to the war to a minimum, arguing the G20 is not a security forum and that reiteration of well known positions will prevent progress on issues such as global debt and post-pandemic recovery.

The summit being held on the Indonesian island of Bali marks the first time the G20 leaders have met since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow has described as a “special military operation”. The war and worries over global inflation, food and energy security have overshadowed the meeting.

In his address, Xi warned against the “weaponisation” of food and energy, adding that he opposed nuclear war in all circumstances, remarks that cast a shadow over Russia’s repeated threats to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

“We must firmly oppose politicisation, instrumentalisation and weaponisation of food and energy problems,” Xi said.

Modi said it was necessary to recognise the UN had failed as a multilateral institution, putting greater pressure on the G20 to find solutions. He said it was time for a ceasefire and for diplomacy to come to the fore.

G20: Zelenskiy calls for 'just' end to Ukraine war, with no compromises

In a video address that the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, carefully missed by staying in his hotel, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said it was time for the war to be stopped, saying it had caused thousands of deaths. But he stressed that a ceasefire was only possible when armed Russian troops left Ukraine territory.

Wearing his now-familiar green T-shirt, he said: “I am convinced now is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be stopped. It will save thousands of lives.”

Speaking in Ukrainian to the single most influential audience he has addressed since the war started, Zelenskiy tried to pitch himself as a man prepared to reach an agreement with Russia but only on terms that protected Ukrainian sovereignty, and recognised the valour with which his troops had fought to protect their homeland.

In a pitch to Xi, he condemned “the crazy threats of nuclear weapons that Russian officials resort to. There are and cannot be any excuses for nuclear blackmail,” he added, pointedly thanking the “G19” – excluding Russia – for “making this clear”.

According to Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, Xi told the US president, Joe Biden, at their bilateral meeting on Monday evening that “nuclear weapons should not be used and nuclear wars should not be fought”.

The Ukrainian leader also called for the expansion and indefinite extension of a grain deal brokered by the UN and Turkey in July.

Much of the diplomatic arm-twisting at the G20 focuses on the terms by which Russia will allow the deal to continue. It has already suspended cooperation once, saying the west had not done enough to persuade insurers and shipping companies to distribute Russian wheat and fertilisers.

Russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of the world’s wheat and barley exports, a fifth of its maize, and more than half of all sunflower oil. The Russian invasion had blocked 20m tonnes of grain in its ports until the deal was reached in July. Russia says the export deal has only been partially implemented.

But Russia says the deal is lopsided because western sanctions have indirectly continued to cast a shadow over the exports of Russian grain by affecting payments, insurance and shipping.

The grain deal has been a rare patch of diplomatic sunlight, but is up for renewal this Friday.

The deal allowing exports past the Russian navy from three Ukrainian seaports has been critical to lowering grain prices.

The dispute over the future of the grain deal is part of a wider diplomatic battle between Russia and the west to convince sceptical opinion in the global south that right is on their side. In his speech, Zelenskiy, fresh from visiting Kherson, a city recaptured from Russia this week, gave little ground on the terms for any peace settlement.

He said such an agreement could be signed at an international conference, adding that Russia would be required to hand over some of its assets as compensation for the task of rebuilding Ukraine. In a symbolic vote, the UN general assembly voted on Monday to approve a resolution recognising that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine, in a non-binding move backed by 94 of its 193 members.

Summary (BBC UK)

1. A draft G20 declaration, seen by news agencies, condemns the Ukraine war and says it is exacerbating fragilities in the global economy

2. We won't get to see the finalised statement until tomorrow - and Russia has already attacked the "politicisation" of the declaration

3. UK PM Rishi Sunak has specifically criticised Russia's "barbaric" war in Ukraine

4. Sunak tells Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov - who is attending the G20 in Bali instead of President Putin - that his country should "get out" of Ukraine

5. It is the first time a British prime minister has directly confronted a senior Russian official since the invasion began

6. Earlier on Tuesday Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky appeared at the G20 via videolink, calling for the war to be stopped

7. Meanwhile, Sunak told reporters that China posed a "systemic challenge" to the UK - but stopped short of calling it a national security threat

8. On Monday Joe Biden held his first meeting with China's leader Xi Jinping since becoming US president

Vad händer härnäst för president Putin?

Är vi hoppfullt nära en fredlig lösning på denna vansinniga konflikt?

Germán & Co

14/11/2022

Karlstad, Sweden

Den 3 september publicerade jag i Dominikanska republikens tidning: "Dominican Today", artikeln: -Naturgasen är den nya "ryska vintern" som en krigsfaktor... -. I dess epilog hänvisas till Kinas roll i andra världskriget och effekterna av ett tyst deltagande som förmodligen kommer att ha varit mer avgörande än vad man hittills har trott på den asiatiska fronten. Den ryska vinterns grymma intensitet skylldes på de invaderande naziststyrkorna.

Kreml tycks ha glömt detta betydelsefulla historiska faktum... genom att förment - skickligt - fastställa Sidenvägens gamla huvudstad Samarkand i Uzbekistan för den ryske presidenten Vladimir Putins möte med Kinas premiärminister Xi Jinping vid toppmötet i Shanghai Cooperation Organization den 15 september i år. Man skulle kunna säga att Kinas ställningstagande om "neutralitet" i fråga om invasionen av Ukraina var den första förlorade striden i denna irrationella satsning.

Den 4 november uppmanade Xi Jinping också den tyske förbundskanslern Olaf Scholz, som var på besök i Peking, att verka för fredssamtal - och sade att det internationella samfundet bör "skapa förutsättningar för att återuppta förhandlingarna (och) motsätta sig användning eller hot om kärnvapen". Xi Jinping har direkt varnat Putin för att använda kärnvapen i Ukraina, vilket är Kinas hittills hårdaste tillrättavisning av Kreml. (Daily News)

Och i dag: - Xi uppmanade Biden att "staka ut rätt kurs" och "höja relationen" mellan Kina och USA. Han sade att han var redo för ett "uppriktigt och djupgående meningsutbyte" med Biden. (Pressmeddelande från Vita huset).

Enligt NYT har det också hållits möten mellan USA:s och Rysslands underrättelsechefer.

Och slutligen har president Zelensky inlett samtal om fredssamtal från den befriade staden Kherson...

What Next for President Putin?

Are we hopeful close to a peaceful solution to this insane conflict?

Germán & Co

14/11/2022

Karlstad, Sweden

On September 3, I published in the Dominican Republic's newspaper: "Dominican Today," the article: —The natural gas is the new "Russian winter" as a war element... —. Its epilogue refers to China's role in World War II and the effects of silent participation that will probably have been more decisive than has been thought so far on the Asian front. The ferocity of the Russian winter was blamed on the invading Nazi forces.

The Kremlin seems to have forgotten this momentous historical fact... by supposedly — cleverly —   fixing the ancient capital of the Silk Road, Samarkand, Uzbekistan, for Russian President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Chinese Prime Minister Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit on September 15 this year. One could say that China's position of "neutrality" on the invasion of Ukraine was the first lost battle in this irrational bet.

On November 4, Xi Jinping also urged German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was visiting Beijing, to push for peace talks - saying the international community should 'create conditions for the resumption of negotiations (and) oppose the use or threat of nuclear weapons.' And Xi Jinping has directly warned Putin not to use nukes in Ukraine in China's bluntest rebuke yet to the Kremlin. (Daily News)

And today: — Mr. Xi called on Biden to "chart the right course" and "elevate the relationship" between China and the US. He said he was ready for a "candid and in-depth exchange of views" with Mr. Biden. (White House Press Release).

Also, according to the NYT, there have been meetings between the intelligence chiefs of the United States and Russia.

And finally, president Zelensky has opened talk of peace talks from the liberated city of Kherson...

Honourable President of Senegal Macky Sall, not only the central figure for the supply of Natural Gas to Europe...

1. Conclusion of the day's news:

   Europe Optimal Market for Senegal’s Gas, President Sall Says

   • Poland, Germany keen to buy liquefied natural gas from Senegal

   • West African nation is set to become LNG exporter next year

   Katarina Hoije, and

   Diederik Baazil

   8 de septiembre de 2022, 10:59 CEST

   @cagankoc

   @katarinah

   Liquefied natural gas produced from a $4.8 billion West African project set to come online in the third quarter of next year will likely be exported to Europe and Asia, according to Senegalese President Macky Sall.

   The Greater Tortue Ahmeyin project, straddling the border between Senegal and Mauritania, is being developed by BP Plc and Kosmos Energy Plc. It will produce an estimated 2.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually during a first phase of production, and a final investment decision is expected on a second phase, which could double its output.  

   “Talks are ongoing to determine which markets to supply, including the European market,” Sall said in a Sept. 6 interview in Rotterdam. “It’s the closest because it takes three, four days from Senegal by sea,” he said, adding that unspecified Asian countries would also be potential buyers.

   The Tortue project is gathering pace at a time when the European Union is seeking to wean itself off Russian energy, in part by increasing LNG purchases from other producers. Germany, the biggest buyer of Russian gas in the EU, is building LNG import facilities, despite its goal of abandoning fossil-fuel power by 2035. 

   German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Senegal in May to discuss gas and renewable energy projects, following an earlier visit by EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson. Polish President Andrzej Duda is expected in Senegal’s capital, Dakar, this week. 

   Read: What LNG Can and Can’t Do to Replace Russian Gas: Quicktake

   More than 40 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves were found in Senegal between 2014 and 2017, most of them jointly owned with Mauritania. They include the shared Tortue deposit and Senegal’s own Yakaar-Teranga, further south, with an estimated 15 to 20 trillion cubic feet of gas.

   While gas from Tortue’s first phase is mainly destined for exports, more than half of Yakaar-Teranga’s production, set to start in 2023 or 2024, will go to the domestic market, according to Sall. Yakaar-Teranga’s output will be primarily used to fuel local power plants and industries, and produce fertilizer, urea and ammonia, he said. 

   Macky Sall and Olaf Scholz in Senegal.

   Sall, who also holds the rotating chairmanship of the African Union, has championed gas as a fuel while countries transition to cleaner forms of energy. He plans to focus on securing external climate financing for the continent over the next two months and then push for the reallocation of the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights from richer nations to African countries.

   The IMF injected a record $650 billion into the global fiscal system last year to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus by releasing these reserve assets, which come with no conditions, to its member states. 

   Read: The Spiraling Debt Crunch Confronting Poor Nations: QuickTake

   Allocations were based on predetermined quotas, which take into account the size of countries’ economies and other factors, meaning just $33 billion went to the 54 African nations -- as much as France and Italy combined, and less than half of what the US received. The IMF then urged wealthy states to redirect part of their allocations to more needy countries on a voluntary basis.

   Progress on reallocations “has been very slow” despite initial pledges from countries such as France and China, Sall said. “There are bottlenecks somewhere. That’s why we need to rethink the problem, so that Africa and other developing countries that need the funds to jumpstart their economies can finally access them.”

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   Back home in Senegal, Sall has faced political unrest in the last 18 months, partly fueled by uncertainty over whether he intends to run for a third term when his mandate expires in 2024. While the Senegalese constitution allows only two terms, other West African presidents have sought to justify extra terms after legal amendments over the past couple of years.

   “I have never responded to this question in my country and I won’t answer it abroad,” Sall said when asked if he considered himself eligible to run again. “All I’ll say for now is that I’m not someone who seeks to threaten democracy.”

   — With assistance by Gem Atkinson

Senegal: Macky Sall receives German Chancellor, discuss major gas project to europe

By Rédaction Africanews

Last updated: 23/05 - 10:07

SENEGAL

Senegal President and current chair of the African Union (AU) Macky Sall said Sunday he would travel to Russia and Ukraine soon on behalf of the AU.

The trip had been due to take place on May 18 but didn't go ahead due to scheduling issues and new dates have been put forward, Sall said at a joint press conference with visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz whose trip is focused on the geopolitical consequences of the war in Ukraine.

Speaking at the news conference after meeting, Sall also said that Senegal was "ready to work" on supplying liquid natural gas (LNG) to Europe, but that "first we need to be supported in our participation under better conditions than those currently offered by our partners."

On the trip to Russia and Ukraine, Sall said "I have received a mandate from the African Union to undertake the trip, for which Russia had extended an invitation".

"As soon as it's set, I will go of course to Moscow and also to Kyiv and we have also accepted to get together all the heads of state of the African Union who want to with (Ukrainian) President (Volodymyr) Zelensky, who had expressed the need to communicate with the African heads of state," he stressed.

"That too will be done in the coming weeks."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has hit African economies hard due to rising cereal prices and fuel shortages, has met with a divided African response.

In early March, Senegal abstained from voting on a United Nations resolution -- overwhelmingly adopted -- that called on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine.

However, a few weeks later it voted in favour of another resolution demanding Russia halt the war. Nearly half of African nations abstained or did not vote in the two resolution votes.

Ready to work on natural gas to Europe

Senegal is believed to have significant deposits of natural gas along its border with Mauritania at a time when Germany and other European countries are trying to reduce their dependence on importing Russian gas.

The gas project off the coast of Senegal is being led by BP, and the first barrels are not expected until next year.

This week's trip marks Germany's Scholz's first to Africa since becoming chancellor nearly six months ago. Two of the countries he is visiting - Senegal and South Africa - have been invited to attend the Group of 7 summit in Germany at the end of June.

Participants there will try to find a common position toward Russia, which was kicked out of the then-Group of Eight following its 2014 seizure of Crimea from Ukraine.

Leaders at the G-7 summit also will be addressing the threat of climate change.

Several G-7 countries, including Germany and the United States, signed a ‘just energy transition partnership’ with South Africa last year to help the country wean itself off heavily polluting coal.

A similar agreement is in the works with Senegal, where Germany has supported the construction of a solar farm.

Biden and Xi Jinping try to defuse tensions at G20 summit in Bali

Ukraine war, inflation, energy crisis, recession and climate change on the table

Growing global polarisation revolves around the new 'cold war' between the US and China.

PABLO M. DÍEZ

Special envoy to Bali

13/11/2022

Updated 14/11/2022 at 09:09h.

ABC

If there is one place capable of calming the troubled international waters, it is undoubtedly Bali. This Indonesian island paradise, with its white sandy beaches, coconut palms and turquoise waters, hosts what is likely to be the most heated G20 summit of the year tomorrow and Wednesday. A forum that brings the richest and most industrialised nations of the West, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, and the major developing powers, such as China, India, Brazil and Russia, to the same table.

With a wide range of opinions and political systems, important issues such as the war in Ukraine, inflation, the looming energy crisis, the threat of recession, global warming and the growing global polarisation around the new 'Cold War' between the US and China will be on the table. To defuse the tension between the two countries, which have engaged in open economic and political hostility, their presidents, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, are taking advantage of their presence in Bali to meet today before the start of the G-20 summit.

Although they have spoken several times by videoconference, this is their first face-to-face meeting since Biden arrived at the White House in January 2020 and comes three weeks after Xi was perpetuated in power at the 20th Communist Party Congress. While Xi comes in as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao, as he proved by ousting former President Hu Jintao from Congress, Biden is bolstered by better-than-expected Democratic results in the recent midterm elections.

Red lines

Apart from this similarity, the differences between the two are so great that no agreement is expected and they may not even sign a joint declaration. But just the fact that they sit down to talk face-to-face is a step forward and, at the very least, will help them to agree on the issues that confront them. Or, as Biden put it last week, "to draw our red lines". Before leaving for the climate summit in Egypt and the Southeast Asian (Asean) summit in Cambodia, he explained that what he wants to do when he talks to Xi is to "understand what he thinks is in China's critical national interest and tell him what I think is in the US's critical national interest, and determine whether or not they conflict. And, if they do, how to work it out and make it work".

Although they spoke by videoconference, it was their first face-to-face meeting since Biden came to the White House.

Their biggest clash is Taiwan, the 'de facto' independent democratic island claimed by Beijing that Xi Jinping has vowed to reunify, by force if necessary. For China, it is such an important issue that last summer it conducted its biggest military manoeuvres in the Formosa Strait in retaliation for the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In the face of threats of a hypothetical Chinese invasion, Biden has already repeatedly angered Beijing by promising that the White House would assist Taiwan militarily. A statement that his advisers have been forced to qualify by assuring that Washington has not changed its "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan or its recognition of the 'one China' policy, but insisting strongly on the current 'status quo' and opposing Beijing's takeover of the island.

Adding to this military tension is the recently released US National Security Strategy, which identifies China as its 'greatest geopolitical challenge' and a more dangerous threat than Russia despite the war in Ukraine. To contain Beijing's military and technological rise, Biden has also banned the sale to Chinese companies of the most advanced microchips, which are manufactured in Taiwan. This veto, which could delay China's technological development by up to ten years, infuriates the regime, as its foreign affairs spokesman, Zhao Lijian, made clear in one of his recent press conferences: "The US must stop politicising, ideologising and weaponising trade issues and take real action to defend the market economy and the international trading system".

Technological independence

But, as Chris Hung, vice president of the Taiwanese consulting firm MIC (Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute) tells ABC, "the new US government regulation is trying to slow down the development of China's semiconductor industry by five to ten years. As such bans apply to highly advanced technology or technology with military applications, the impact on other countries will be quite limited.

Given the unease that the veto has provoked in China, which has suffered a "very precise and forceful" blow to its plan to achieve technological independence, according to Hung, the US president is confident that he will not have to make "fundamental concessions" in his meeting with Xi. At the same time, he will seek to give Taiwan security assurances, something Chinese foreign spokesman Zhao Lijian strongly opposes.

Nuclear weapons

Add to all this military tension their disagreements over the war in Ukraine and Xi Jinping's implicit support for Putin, with whom he signed a "friendship without limits" just before the Russian invasion, which Chinese propaganda refuses to define as such. Biden will try to wrest from Xi a commitment to oppose Russia's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did earlier this month on his criticised whirlwind visit to Beijing.

His biggest shock is Taiwan, the 'de facto' independent island that Xi has vowed to reunify, by force if necessary.

It will be harder for Biden to get Xi to condemn the constant provocations of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, who is feared to be ordering another nuclear test after spending the year firing all manner of missiles.

Although expectations for agreements are very low, it is hoped that the meeting will at least serve to resume talks between the two countries on global warming, military communication and the trade war. All of these collaborations, vital to the development of the economy and the future of humanity, were interrupted after Pelosi's trip to Taiwan and analysts hope that the Bali summit will help to unblock some of them.

An island paradise with an atmosphere conducive to deal-making

Smiles on every face, which are also unabashedly worn because few people wear Covid masks, dreamy beaches, luxury resorts, tropical heat and beautiful Balinese dances as a welcome. As Indonesian diplomatic sources privately acknowledge, the island of Bali brings all its charms to create the right atmosphere for G20 members to reach important global agreements. In addition to industrialised countries such as the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Australia and Spain as a permanent guest, developing powers such as China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, as well as the European Union, are part of the forum. Held in the beautiful area of Nusa Dua, where Bali's best hotels are concentrated, the G20 is held under heavy security measures to prevent jihadist attacks like the one that killed 202 people in the bars of Kuta 20 years ago.

In 2019, when the G-20 was held in the Japanese city of Osaka, the occasion was used to bring together former US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who signed a truce to the trade war. Although Biden has not lifted the tariffs imposed by Trump, he will try to use his long-standing relationship with Xi to bring positions closer together and build bridges. The two have known each other personally since 2011, when they were both vice presidents and paid several visits to each other, but times have changed as much as they have.

In fact, Biden has even had to clarify in a press conference that he is not an "old friend" of Xi's, but that the two were linked by a "purely working" relationship. Interestingly, the now US president was, during his time as a senator in the late 1990s, one of the biggest advocates of China's inclusion in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which has caused so many problems for certain Western industries.

Saviour of communism

For his part, the Chinese president has lost the smile he wore on his trips to the US, such as his 2012 return visit to Biden, and has become the most authoritarian leader since Mao Zedong. Traumatised by the disintegration of the Soviet Union, which he wants to avoid at all costs in China, Xi Jinping sees himself as the saviour of communism and champions its totalitarian model against the democracies of the West.

Returning to the international stage after almost three years without leaving China because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Xi meets with Biden to try to improve relations in Bali. If any place is conducive to soothing exalted global tempers, it is surely this beautiful and peaceful Indonesian island.

The Drought (1964)

The Machiavellian war strategy in the supply side of the natural gas market ...

Rapid adaptation to change has always been seen as a virtue in human beings. Why is this the case? The answer is simple, because so-called human life is not a continuum of happiness and unhappiness or of stability and instability, fortunately, it is not... On the contrary, the itinerary of life is complex, with its encounters and misencounters, loves and dislikes, in short ..... Sometimes, our own ecosystem, jaded by pollution, reveals itself by provoking natural disasters of enormous proportions... and not to mention the deviations in the minds of some so-called men that lead to excesses that infringe all the moral canons of coexistence imaginable..., which is why our existence is constantly subjected to complex tests through extreme and always unforeseen changes, they say... which is very true..., because in the unique minds of the human being, we have to be aware of the fact that we have to face the same problems.... because in the unique minds of some writers throughout the history of mankind they have managed to visualise the plagues and changes in political systems that would affect us mercilessly, with the passing of time....

According to the journal Plos Pathogens of the University of Kent (England), on Friday 17 November 2019, in the city of Wuhan, China, the SARC-COv-2 virus was detected for the first time, an organism with a simple structure, composed of proteins and nucleic acids, and capable of reproducing only within specific living cells, using its own metabolism, according to the definition of the Royal Spanish Academy (RAE), all this in relation to the Coronavirus.

Perhaps the cruellest change that mankind has undergone as a result of the Coronavirus is in our affective behaviour. This tiny little creature awakened in us the paranoia of fear and undoubtedly, in a very mean way, let us know, and indeed it did, that being in the company of other individuals of our own species, by then already submerged by the sophistic evolution of the world 2.0, where genuine expressions of affection, handshakes and hugs... that do so much good to the intangible of the so-called soul, have been replaced by immaterial faces that flow at an infinite density (billions) per second, devoid of any merciful human contact, would cause us to die.  What cruelty we have been subjected to. How many loved ones are not by our side today? And all because of a supposed human error in some laboratory in the remote province of Wuhan in millenary China...

Not even in the mind of that genius of science fiction storytelling, James Graham Ballard (JG Ballard, Shanghai, British International Treaty 1930-London, UK 2009) in his short story The Drought (1964), did he fail to visualise what would affect in the future the colony of individuals inhabiting a small, remote, and sick planet, called: Earth.

Not only the human sensory system has been affected by these new living conditions, but also industry in all its processes, a consequence of the forced confinement of human beings, which prevented them from going to their workplaces normally, is suffering from the non-existence of raw materials and components to keep the production chain in operation in order to supply the basic needs that man requires for his subsistence.

The lack of supply of essential goods... together with the excessive costs of international sea freight transport, triggers the poison known as inflation.  Global Cumulative Inflation from January 2020 to December 2021 went from 1.9% to no less than 3.5%, practically doubling in one calendar year, and by the end of the period the prediction is close to 7%, according to World Bank indicators. In other words, in a short period of time, three years, accumulative inflation has tripled. There is no national economy or family wallet that can deal with this -financial storm-.

In addition to this undesirable economic context, to begin with caused by the SARC-COv-2 virus, this financial setback has been compounded since February this year by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has had a negative impact on the fossil fuel market, specifically on the stable and safe purchase price of natural gas from the Tsarist domain. The reason for this is Russia's sharp military strategy in the economic order in this conflict, using the systematic cuts of natural gas to its customers on the continent as a new element of warfare, known under the concept: Natural gas is the new "Russian winter" as an element of warfare?

 Obviously, this clever (Machiavellian) strategy on the part of the imperial government of Russia has deepened the economic crisis to levels unprecedented in contemporary history, accelerating the inflationary process in such a way that it has the finances of almost all nations in check, (weakened by extraordinary expenditures (issuing public debt) through subsidies and investments in the health sector aimed at coping with the pandemic times) that drift to the fragile economy of hundreds of millions of families around the world, who are unable to cope with their basic financial commitments, payment of electricity bills, settlements on mortgage commitments, etc......

There is no doubt about the concern of the political authorities regarding the current economic crisis, that it is urgent and necessary to resort to emergency measures to deal with this unsustainable economic situation, however, these political actions in financial matters must be based on objective rationality, on the true origin of the crisis, the current inflationary process is the result of the result of the pandemic and the recent armed conflict. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a direct impact on the natural gas market, causing a disruption in prices due to a strategically planned restriction in supply.

In view of this, the electricity industry has no direct responsibility for the background of the current economic crisis (neither does the political authority), on the contrary, it is one of the most affected parties in the context because its production costs have increased exponentially. A financial intervention in the electricity industry by means of a cap-price is perhaps not the smartest economic measure, because they (the electricity industry) do not have any tools to influence the price of natural gas. This is a governmental issue, where politicians are responsible for finding mechanisms to solve the situation. In this sense, some European government officials have put forward valid proposals aimed at contributing to the relief of electricity supply to both the population and industry, without risking, firstly, social peace and, secondly, the financial health of the energy sector, which could lead to a domino effect on other sectors of the economy, on the basis of state guarantees, which could be one of the logical alternatives at this point in time.

Finally, we have to be very careful with the so-called -all in- of all installed electricity generation capacity to the system, in particular as far as the nuclear fleet is concerned, there are many plants in Europe that have not been dispatched for years, their current condition is unknown.  I insist that we must be extremely cautious here, we must not look back too far: ...- an elaborate report on his visit, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that artillery attacks around the Zaporiyia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, must cease immediately. "This requires an agreement by all relevant parties for the establishment of a protective zone" around the plant, the report said.  "We are playing with fire, and something very, very catastrophic could happen," warned Rafael Grossi, IAEA director general to the UN Security Council, days after leading an inspection visit to the plant. (Los Angeles Time, underwritten by Hanna Arhirova of Associeted Press, 6 September 2022) events to realise the risks of such an action, the worst that could happen is to throw the current crisis back into another horror as described by the great science fiction writers of the last century.

As an epilogue to these reflections, in the search for wisdom and good sense to prevail over the empire of destruction, in a call for clemency to the gods, in an inchallah of supplication, it is my duty to recall that China, the forgotten ally of the West during the Second World War, was one of the determining factors in bringing the conflict to an end. Now, equally, China, this undesirable economic situation is causing considerable financial holes in its public finances. Hopefully, out of necessity or common sense, the economic giant of the East will wake up and use the extraordinary key that its economic and political power confers on it to find a definitive way out of this situation that is wreaking havoc on the global economy.

Natural Gas from Senegal…

“In 2014, a vast repository of the fossil fuel was found beneath the seabed, and since then, the two countries have been working together to exploit it, hoping for multibillion-dollar revenues. Extraction is planned to continue for 30 years, with the profits being divided up between the energy giants BP and Kosmos, and between the governments of Senegal and Mauritania. ”

— Spiegel

Seaboard sea floating hybrid power plant DR.. Imagine a world with access to electricity and clean water – a world with less pollution, less noise disturbances and sufficient resources.

---

“The change we are seeing in everyday economic life here is astonishing, says Dalia Samra-Rohte, the delegate of German industry and commerce for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen at the German-Saudi Arabian Liaison Office for Economic Affairs. And it is clearly felt when you drive around the country and talk to young female engineers, startup founders and project managers. They tell you: We’re not all sullen and threatening, we’re just trying to become freer and more progressive, and for that we need recognition, not the eternal moralizing arrogance of the West.”

— Spiegel

Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile broadband

Maps Of Senegal

The Ahmeyim field, located in Saint Louis Offshore Profond block of Senegal, was discovered by the Ahmeyim-2 discovery well, which was drilled up to 5.2km depth in 2016. Picture courtesy of BP p.l.c

1. European Casts Covetous Eyes toward West Africa

   “Until recently, Europe had been urging Africa to focus on the development of renewable energy sources. But a natural gas project in Senegal suddenly has Germany, France, Italy and others flocking to the country hoping for a new supplier.”

   Alarge wave spills over the gunwales of the wooden pirogue and everything in the bottom of the boat begins floating around in the swirling water. Another wave hits the boat a short time later, its keel rising two meters before plunging into the trough, hitting the surface hard.

   Moustapha Dieng leans placidly on a plank of wood, amused by the pale faces of the DER SPIEGEL team onboard with him. Dieng is wearing a black wool cap, his shaggy beard has long since become peppered with gray and he is missing several teeth. In the coastal village of Guet Ndar, essentially an extension of Saint Louis, a city in northern Senegal, they call him "father." Dieng is head of the powerful association of traditional fishermen in Senegal. He knows everybody here, and everybody knows him.

   Dieng laughs frequently, and even when he’s not laughing, he has a whimsical smirk on his face. He has fought many battles in his life – against storms and tides and against the foreign trawlers that spent many years depleting the fishing stocks off the coast of Senegal. But never before has he had such a powerful adversary as he does today. He has declared war on one of the world’s largest oil and natural gas companies. The man in the wooden pirogue is outraged at the vast monster of steel and concrete he is currently approaching: Starting next year, a consortium led by BP is to begin extracting natural gas here on the border between Senegal and Mauretania, and much of the facility is already complete

   In 2014, a vast repository of the fossil fuel was found beneath the seabed, and since then, the two countries have been working together to exploit it, hoping for multibillion-dollar revenues. Extraction is planned to continue for 30 years, with the profits being divided up between the energy giants BP and Kosmos, and between the governments of Senegal and Mauritania.

   Global Societies

   For our Global Societies project, reporters around the world will be writing about societal problems, sustainability and development in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe. The series will include features, analyses, photo essays, videos and podcasts looking behind the curtain of globalization. The project is generously funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

   Replacing Russia

   "Natural gas is an immense opportunity for our country," says Ly, "also because the demand for new producers is huge due to the war in Ukraine." Senegal, in other words, is trying to quickly catapult itself into the ranks of gas-producing nations. Processes that normally take years must be completed within just a few months in order to meet European demand as rapidly as possible and to profit from the high global prices. "At the moment," Ly laughs, "everybody is knocking on our door."

   Bild vergrößern

   One of those is German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was in Senegal in May. It was a notable visit, a "turning point" in German energy policy, as Scholz noted himself in the subsequent press conference. It is sensible, he said, to "intensely pursue" cooperation in gas exploitation. Berlin is currently under pressure to quickly find alternatives to Russian natural gas, and the West African country is more than happy to jump into the breach.

   Germany, though, had been intending to halt all further investments in fossil fuel repositories. Indeed, the issue is so sensitive that the German side has shown reluctance to discuss the cooperation. Petrosen General Director Ly, though, has no such constraints. He says that concrete negotiations have begun with the German energy supplier Uniper, even if Uniper headquarters has thus far not responded to a DER SPIEGEL request for comment. But Ly also makes it clear that those hoping for preferential treatment are expected to invest money in Senegal.

   Either way, the German government does not have an endless amount of time on its hands. President Macky Sall and his cabinet are currently the focus of fawning attention from a number of European countries, including France, Portugal, Poland and Italy – all of which are eager to secure natural gas from Senegal, even if it isn’t yet available for export. It is a rather welcome change for a country that has long requested funding from the aid budgets of countries in the Global North. The Senegalese government has realized that now is the time to get the absolute most out of the natural gas reserve. Now or never.

   The mood marks a significant shift from last year, when European governments were singing the praises of the potential in Africa for renewable energies and warning against the exploitation of oil and gas. Macky Sall consistently resisted such sentiments. At the UN General Assembly in New York in September, he said: "It is legitimate, fair and equitable that Africa, the continent that pollutes the least and lags furthest behind in the industrialization process, should exploit its available resources." Now, those from the north who had presumed to lecture Africa are lining up and waiting for the Senegalese natural gas spigots to be turned on.

   Ly, the Petrosen general director, is unimpressed by the criticisms leveled by the fishing community of Saint Louis. "The anger of those affected is primarily a communications problem," he says, claiming that "there were never fishing grounds where the gas platform now stands."

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   "A Huge Opportunity for the Region"

   Land Cruisers with tinted windows roll up to the conference hotel, spilling out women and men in uniform or in traditional suits. They enter the packed room searching for their assigned seat at the U-shaped table. Massaer Cissé, the top BP executive in Senegal, holds an impassioned presentation about the advantages of natural gas exploitation, saying things like: "Natural resources belong to the Senegalese people and not to BP." And: "I am extremely fond of this area." And: "Fishing and gas are not mutually exclusive, they complement each other wonderfully." His presentation ends with an uplifting video complete with background music in which residents of Saint Louis gush about the good deeds performed by the oil and gas multinational.

   The governor, in full military dress, looks satisfied. "The gas is a huge opportunity for the region. It will enable us to solve all of our problems," he intones. There is, though, a notable absence at the conference table: the fishing community. "Nobody invited me," says Moustapha Dieng, the chairman of the fishing association. "Probably because I’m always too loud."

   BP and the other project partners have taken steps to calm tempers. They have distributed free lifejackets, handed out food during the coronavirus pandemic and made state-of-the-art projectors available to local organizations. But the resentment has persisted. In part because the divvying up of the gas fields early on was overshadowed by allegations of corruption. Concern in the country is significant that only a tiny elite will profit from the money earned from the natural resource, as has happened in other African countries. Greenpeace, the environmental protection organization, has also warned of the incalculable risks to the Saint Louis ecosystem, particularly given the presence of important marine reserves near the gas platform.

   The Senegalese government is not allowing such concerns to derail its plans. Elections are to be held in 2024, the country is carrying a heavy debt load, rising prices are increasingly becoming a problem, and expensive subsidies must be phased out. New revenue sources are badly needed. "We certainly won’t turn into Qatar or the Emirates, but gas and oil could vastly accelerate the development of Senegal," says Petrosen executive Ty. The West African country is also hoping to use the gas to improve access to electricity in the country.

   At the port of Dakar, enthusiasm for this shift is significant. At one quay, two giant ships are moored, producing quite a din. The Turkish company Karpowership operates the floating powerplants. But the technology is anything but environmentally friendly. Currently, the power generated is being produced using crude oil.

   Outside the Port of Dakar, however, a ship is anchored that gives hope for change. The huge blue freighter with white superstructure can be seen at quite a distance. Two pipelines lead from the ship into the sea.

   The LNG tanker will soon collect liquified natural gas from around the world, transform it back into gas ongboard before then sending it to the floating powerplants in port.

   The plan will replace crude oil with natural gas, which produces far less emissions. "It is a sensible and flexible transition technology on the path to clean energy," says project leader Nazli Lermioglu.

   But the plan currently doesn't have much of a future. Because global prices for natural gas are so high, switching from crude oil doesn't currently make financial sense. "We are hoping that prices stabilize soon. The natural gas extracted in Senegal could help," say the operators.

   In Germany, though, this part of Scholz’s trip to Senegal was largely ignored, with the focus instead placed on the German chancellor’s efforts to secure future deliveries of Senegalese natural gas. His visit to the solar facility didn’t make an appearance in the main headlines. Von Klitzing hopes that isn’t a sign of things to come and that Senegal’s gas boom doesn’t come at the cost of renewable energies. "I think that both can work during a transitionary phase. Gas and renewable energies can complement each other," he says.

   At the moment, Germany and the other G-7 countries are engaged in negotiations with Senegal on a socially just energy transition. A similar deal is in place with South Africa, with the country set to receive billions for phasing out its coal industry. With COP27 underway, Berlin would love to reach an agreement with Senegal – observers believe that solar energy and sustainable hydrogen could play an important role in any such deal. But neither side is likely interested in turning their backs any time soon on Senegal’s natural gas fields.

2. All Eyes on the Gulf…

   The Present and Future of Europe's Energy Supply

   The autocratic countries of the Persian Gulf play a key role in the new world order – and for the future of Germany's economy. Complete dependence will be difficult to avoid.

   By Monika Bolliger, Claus Hecking, Martin Hesse, Marina Kormbaki, Dirk Kurbjuweit, Ralf Neukirch, Thomas Schulz und Gerald Traufetter

   11.11.2022, 18.43 Uhr

   The Saudi Arabian desert can seem endless, particularly here in the northwestern part of the country, where people are a rare sight. For hours on end, there is only sand, rock, heat and the occasional empty road. It seems almost unreal, almost like a fata morgana, when long columns of dump trucks suddenly appear just before the Red Sea coast. They are followed by a swarm of excavators, digging their way through dunes and scree across several dozen kilometers.

   Perhaps, grumble critics, the plans for what is to be built here are nothing more than hot air. After all, those plans sound far too crazy to be true: a model region called NEOM, as big as the German state of Hesse, rising out of the desert, complete with technology parks, industrial production and a 170-kilometer-long futuristic city – 500 meters high, 200 meters wide, completely CO2 neutral. Residents will move through the metropolis in flying taxis and high-speed trains. The price tag? Five-hundred-billion dollars. For the first phase.

   The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 46/2022 (November 12th, 2022) of DER SPIEGEL.

   SPIEGEL International

   Crazy? More like shock and awe. A demonstration to the world of what can be done with virtually limitless monetary resources. Mohammad bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and ruler, is the driver behind the vision. By 2030, the country is to have transformed into a high-tech nation, independent of oil and even more powerful than it is today. It is a monstrous, almost surreal plan. But the money is there – more than ever before.

   Three-and-a-half trillion dollars, an unfathomable sum, are set to flow into the coffers of the six Gulf states in the next five years should the prices for oil and gas remain as high as they are today – a gift from Vladimir Putin. Because Europe is no longer interested in importing energy from Russia, oil from Saudi Arabia and natural gas from Qatar have become the focus, no matter how high the price.

   The plan currently afoot in the desert is perhaps more gigantic than any project since the construction of the pyramids. Fully 30,000 construction workers are already laboring away in NEOM, with that number soon to explode to 300,000. In just a single year, a town for 4,000 engineers, technicians and project planners from around the world has sprung up, complete with swimming pools, schools, restaurants and tennis courts. Long rows of single-story homes stretch out behind barbed wire and security gates.

   Nobody really knows what will ultimately become of the project – either a futuristic metropolis or an abject failure – but Saudi leaders are primarily interested in the message behind it, both domestically and abroad. Indeed, in the government quarters of Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi, officials could hardly be more full of themselves.

   At a time when the West is suffering and China is showing economic vulnerability, the economies on the Gulf see nothing but a bright future and their optimism is boundless. Some examples:

   • In the United Arab Emirates, per-capita income is just as high as it is in Germany.

   • With economic growth of 7.6 percent this year, Saudi Arabia is home to the fastest growing economy of all G-20 member states.

   • Qatar has spent billions to host this year’s World Cup.

   • The sovereign wealth funds of the six Gulf states are worth a combined 4 trillion euros, and they invest money around the world, including in German companies like VW, Porsche and RWE. Or to purchase soccer teams, Formula One races or an entire professional golf league. Saudi Arabia even has its own space program.

   Those traveling from crisis-ridden Europe to the Gulf region this fall will encounter a disquieting contrast. On the one hand, a fearful continent, wracked by self-doubt and fears of recession as it fights to maintain its prosperity and influence. On the other, an entire region drunk on success and on its newfound international importance. And young: Around 70 percent of the population on the Arabian Peninsula is under 30 years of age.

   It seems clear that the Gulf states will place a key role in the new world order currently being established. Qatar and Iran are sitting on the largest natural gas repositories on the planet, while Saudi Arabia is home to the second-largest oil reserves. That was already a huge lever for global influence in the past. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent sidelining of the country, has made that lever even longer. The West has virtually no other options available.

   And it doesn’t end with oil and gas. The energy source of the future is hydrogen, produced with solar and wind. The deserts of the Arabian Peninsula offer perfect conditions for such renewable energy sources. Ultimately, more hydrogen may be exported from the Emirates and Saudi Arabia in the future than oil is today. Germany promises to be a primary destination.

   The development, though, is not without danger: The energy boom is taking place in a time of significant geopolitical upheaval. Globalization is slowing and the world appears to be in the process of once again dividing itself up into blocks: China against the West; autocracies against democracies. Toxic alliances suddenly appear to be a very real possibility.

   Since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading politicians in Berlin have been pushing to bind influential countries to Europe in this multipolar world. Or at least to avoid losing them to Russia or China.

   And Germany isn’t alone. Indeed, Western heads of government have been lining up for months for audiences with Arabian rulers: French President Emmanuel Macron, ex-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.S. President Joe Biden have all made recent trips to the region. The European Union intends to install a special envoy for the region.

   That alone demonstrates the new balance of power. But the fact that many of the trips have produced no results is perhaps even more indicative. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the environmentalist Green Party, was widely mocked for his almost desperate appeals during his springtime trip to Qatar in the search for natural gas. Thus far, though, no contracts for liquified natural gas (LNG) have been forthcoming. And when Biden, during his trip to Riyadh in summer, asked that the country boost its oil production to tamp down gas prices in the U.S., the Saudis did precisely the opposite.

   Cooperating with strong and increasingly self-confident Gulf states requires a certain amount of imagination, particularly for a Berlin governing coalition that has professed its dedication to a values-based foreign policy.

   How, though, should the West deal with economically and politically indispensable autocracies, countries that are undemocratic, ruled by despots, frequently show little respect for human rights and treat women and migrants as commodities? Countries which, on the other hand, are capable of extremely rapid progress, not just economic but also social. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the share of women in the tech sector is higher than it is in Germany.

   So, should Germany give its age-old doctrine of change through trade, suddenly abandoned in the wake of Russia’s belligerence, another try? It would certainly benefit the German economy: Almost nowhere in the world is more money currently changing hands. Companies of all sizes are streaming into the region to earn their fair share from the gigantic wind parks and hydrogen facilities that are coming.

   Abu Dhabi almost seems like a beautiful city when the muezzins call for sunset prayers and the humid November heat finally loosens its grip, when dusk makes everything seem a bit softer and friendlier – the almost 400-meter-tall skyscrapers reflecting the Persian Gulf, framed by beaches, islands and mangrove forests. It is a fleeting moment of calm, quickly dispelled by 12-lane highways and endless checkerboard city quarters.

   The capital city of the United Arab Emirates has grown too quickly to exude the natural charm of other global metropolises. In the 1960s, there was neither electricity nor a sewer system in many places – today it is home to some 1.5 million people. Soon, the population is expected to hit 3 million. None of the city’s landmarks are older than 20 years: the offshoot of the Louvre, designed by star architect Jean Nouvel; a palatial luxury hotel, where cappuccinos are served with flakes of 24-carat gold; and the Leaning Tower of Abu Dhabi, which reaches 160 meters into the sky and has a lean four times as severe as the tower in Pisa.

   At its foot is the convention center, with the elite of the energy world gathering here in late October every year. More than 2,000 senior executives from multinationals like BP and Shell, along with more than 40 oil, energy or economy ministers were present. All of them eager to rub elbows with the sheikhs and negotiate new deals: oil and natural gas for today, hydrogen for tomorrow.

   This year, Klaus-Dieter Maubach made the trip, the head of Uniper, Germany’s largest natural gas trader, freshly bailed out by German taxpayers to the tune of 40 billion euros. Historically, Uniper has imported almost all of its gas from Russia. But now, it must go shopping elsewhere, leading to a smiling Maubach sitting on a podium before skeptical Emiratis, Saudis and other energy traders and talking about the future. About Uniper’s LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven, set to begin operations in November, and about where the gas will come from. "Our priority is securing the supply of natural gas for Germany and Europe," the executive intoned. Uniper, he said, has the experience to do so: "The global procurement of natural gas is in our DNA."

   However, there aren’t too many options left in the world for Uniper. And certainly not at an acceptable price. The pipelines leading from gas-producing countries to Central Europe are either at maximum capacity, destroyed or politically taboo. And on the global market for LNG, much of the product is already accounted for by long-term contracts with countries like Japan, South Korea and China.

   Indeed, it was even cause for celebration when, following the German chancellor’s visit to Abu Dhabi, the state-owned energy company Adnoc promised the delivery of a single tanker full of LNG to the German company RWE. Securing the delivery of one shipment at a time, as many as possible, that will be the main goal of Uniper executives in the Gulf for some time to come. It isn’t likely to be easy to develop a long-term delivery cooperation with the United Arab Emirates.

   Abu Dhabi, after all, doesn’t just want to be in the position of filling the gaps in Germany’s supply this winter and next. "We told Germany: If you want natural gas from us, then we need a long-term contract," says Mariam bint Mohammed Almheiri. "It is a large investment for us, it also has to be sustainable.”

   To meet the U.A.E.’s minister for environment and climate, you have to head out to the middle of nowhere in Dubai, to a mundane glass structure between the highway and the desert. Almheiri speaks a mixture of English and accent-free German, her native language. A smart and eloquent woman, Almheiri’s mother is from the Rhineland region of Germany and her father is from the U.A.E. She knows Germany well, having gone to university in Aachen and working as an engineer for the rolling bearings manufacturer Cerobear before moving to the country of her father. She doesn’t wear a headscarf. She frequently spends her holidays visiting relatives in Lower Saxony.

   "There are so many countries knocking on our door at the moment."

   Mariam bint Mohammed Almheiri, climate minister of U.A.E.

   The minister knows precisely what the Germans need: energy for their factories, for heating and for power plants. And that fits in well with the plans laid out by Abu Dhabi’s government and the country’s state-owned firms.

   The emirates are following a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, they want to continue selling their oil and gas for as long as possible. On the other, they want to become a major power when it comes to renewable energies. By 2030, ruler Mohammed Bin Zayed has announced, the country – population 10 million – is to be responsible for a quarter of the global hydrogen market.

   That aspiration explains why the emirates have long been one of the most important factors in Germany’s energy future. Germany hopes to become climate neutral by 2045, a goal which will be impossible to reach without green hydrogen. The energy source is easy to transport and store, which also makes it easy to import. Otherwise, all of Lower Saxony and half of Bavaria would likely have to be covered in solar panels to generate sufficient quantities of renewable energy.

   Beginning in 2030, Germany will need around 100 terawatt hours of green hydrogen each year, according to an Environment Ministry estimate. And that will require the kind of industrial production capacities that don’t yet exist. Which explains why one of Economy Minister Robert Habeck’s first trips as a cabinet member was to the United Arab Emirates in March. "Conditions here are such that a huge amount of energy comes down from the sky," Habeck says. And it’s cheap. A kilowatt hour of solar power from the Arabian Desert costs just 1.34 cents.

   The emirate of Dubai already began producing green hydrogen last year with the largest contiguous solar park in the world – a facility built with the help of Siemens. "The region is extremely important, because it shows how the energy transformation works," says Dietmar Siersdorfer. The Siemens executive has been heading up the company’s activities in the Gulf region for more than a decade, including more than 100 energy products and 3,000 employees.

   Internal documents make it clear why the Middle East is so lucrative for the multinational. Some 50 million people in the region are still without electricity, with new powerplants needed to fill the gap. The oil and gas industries need technology for decarbonation. The company can also be helpful in turning the Gulf into a key energy partner for Europe.

   Dubai, for example, says Siersdorfer, is investing in wind and solar to produce hydrogen with renewable energies from the get-go. Siemens Energy is a consultant. As such, Siersdorfer is optimistic that the company will receive lucrative contracts once the projects really start moving. And Siemens Energy turbines, which run on gas today, can be powered by hydrogen in the future, the executive says.

   The Gulf states, says Siersdorfer, are extremely pleased with the new interest in the region from Europe. Thus far, EU countries had primarily been focused on China and the United States. "But the Gulf states are still looking for their place in the world." For Europeans, he says, that is an opportunity, provided they aren’t only interested in rapid deliveries of LNG. "People here value stable contacts and long-term energy partnerships."

   Particularly given the ambitious plans the emirates are pursuing. Additional gigantic solar parks are under construction, with the state-owned oil company Adnoc, the sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and the energy supplier Taqa providing the billions in investment necessary. Insiders say that the primary target market for the green hydrogen that will be produced is Germany, through companies like Uniper and RWE.

   The deal hasn’t yet been signed, though. "There are so many countries knocking on our door at the moment," says Minister Almheiri. On the other hand, the emirates aren’t the only possible partner in the region. There are others as well.

   "I am certain that Saudi Arabia will play a central role in the hydrogen revolution, because we are home to wind, sun, space and the geographical location to supply Europe and Asia," says Peter Terium. "And the Saudis are very good at building huge infrastructure facilities."

   Terium was head of RWE for many years. But in 2018, he was headhunted by the Saudi leadership to set up the energy supply for the model region NEOM. By 2030, it will be home to 1.5 million residents and numerous technology parks and companies, all of which are to be powered by renewable energies, as a model for the entire country. Currently, the share of renewable energies in Saudi Arabia’s energy mix is less than 1 percent, but plans call for that number to rise to 50 percent by 2030. It is, Terium says, a realistic goal, since it is possible for Saudi Arabia to obtain solar power at a price of just 1 cent per kilowatt hour.

   An entire region drunk on success and on its newfound international importance

   Terium is one of the pioneers of Saudi Arabia’s prestige project and will soon have been living for four years in one of the small homes at the construction site. He is head of the energy subsidiary spun off from NEOM. Surrounding his home are hundreds of others, slapped together for thousands of engineers and technicians, along with their families. NEOM Community 1 looks like an insulated university campus, but it is large enough that electric scooters and bicycles are parked on every corner so that workers can get back and forth between their homes and their offices. Work continues seven days a week, around the clock. Even late at night, workers are assembling new office barracks.

   "The first wave of the energy transformation was low prices for solar and wind energy," says Terium. "The second wave is starting now: Industry can only be decarbonized with hydrogen."

   Terium wants to ensure that NEOM "drives this paradigm shift." Just a few minutes’ drive from NEOM Community 1 in a Jeep through the desert is the centerpiece of his plans: One of the world’s largest hydrogen factories, with an output of 2,000 megawatts. The foundation and the first pipes can already be seen, and completion is set for 2025. The Saudis are hoping it is the first step toward dominating the 700-billion-dollar global hydrogen market – and to leaving the United Arab Emirates in their dust.

   The German company Thyssenkrupp is expected to make a major contribution to those plans. The company is building the electrolysis plant for hydrogen production at a cost of almost a billion euros. It is one of the biggest contracts awarded to date and a major step for the Essen-based company to become a key player in future technologies. "It is now up to industry to breathe life into the new energy partnerships in the Gulf initiated by the German government," says Thyssenkrupp CEO Martina Merz. "We need to reduce dependencies and develop partnerships that are not simple supplier relationships but mutual partnerships."

   Thyssenkrupp isn’t interested in talking much about its involvement, at least not officially. Relations with Saudi Arabia's rulers aren't just morally fraught. In the future, the royal family would like to build up technology industries of its own. In particular, it hopes to participate in the research and development of hydrogen technologies, an advantage that Thyssenkrupp and other German industrial companies aren’t interested in giving up.

   Saudi Arabia is currently building its own hydrogen research center, part of a huge innovation hub being built at the southern end of NEOM on the Red Sea, an industrial district that is set to become the world's largest floating structure. Excavators are excavating in the basin ahead of building a fully automated port conveniently located near the Suez Canal.

   Does Terium, the sober-minded executive who began his career at the Dutch Finance Ministry, believe in all these megavisions? His answer is guarded: NEOM is ultimately the personal showcase project of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he says.

   At the very least, Terium has clear ideas about what the next steps must be in transforming Saudi Arabia from an oil giant into a hydrogen giant. "Build the infrastructure to export all over the world," he says, preferably a pipeline through the Mediterranean to Europe. While technically feasible, it would be extremely complex from a political perspective. The pipeline would have to pass through many different sovereign territories.

   Nevertheless, Riyadh is mulling the idea. "We don't know if this will work, but it would be a complete gamechanger for Saudi Arabia," says Mohammed Al Balaihed, head of the energy division of Saudi Arabia's powerful sovereign wealth fund. "We're certainly willing to put in the resources and the effort to find out if it can be done."

   The question, though, is whether Europe wants to bind itself so closely to Saudi Arabia. It was barely two years ago that U.S. President Joe Biden declared the country a "pariah" after journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered and brutally dismembered in Istanbul in 2018 – by what are believed to be Saudi agents. Western intelligence agencies would later say that the order to kill him came from the highest levels of government in Riyadh. The Saudi Arabian government denies the allegations.

   And that, too, is Saudi Arabia: According to a press release from the Interior Ministry, 81 people were executed on a single day in March.

   Human rights are also violated in the other Gulf states. In Qatar, immigrant workers died because of disastrous conditions at the construction sites of the World Cup stadiums. Amnesty International denounces "arbitrary detention, cruel and inhumane treatment of detainees, suppression of freedom of expression and violation of the right to privacy” in the U.A.E.

   But Saudi Arabia is in a league of its own. The state religion, Wahabism, is a particularly radical version of Islam, and Shariah law is interpreted in an extremely conservative manner, including public floggings.

   For years, music in public and even movie theaters were banned in the country. To this day, women often only go outside in a niqab, a face veil that leaves only the area around the eyes free. Homosexuality is punishable with the death penatly. Opposition figures are harshly persecuted. And human rights activists claim that torture is routine in Saudi Arabian prisons.

   Nominally, the country, an absolutist monarchy, is led by King Salman, 86. But it is common knowledge that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, MbS for short, has long had a firm grip on power. He has eliminated all competitors in a way that is impressively nefarious even for despots. Including the man who should be the actual heir to the throne: He lured his cousin, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef into a trap.

   The same happened to numerous relatives and business leaders in the country. That, at least, is the story told by reports from Western intelligence services and numerous investigative media outlets.

   In 2017, MbS invited the international financial elite to an investment conference in Riyadh, billed as an intimate offshoot of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and thus fondly dubbed "Davos in the Desert." Wall Street giants and politicians from around the world came, as did the Saudi business elite. After the conference in the palatial Ritz-Carlton, MbS imprisoned the most influential Saudis there and forced them to surrender much of their wealth. Some disappeared for years.

   MbS then named himself head of the supervisory board of the sovereign wealth fund and waged war against Yemen, Saudi Arabia's southern neighbor. He almost invaded Qatar. The Saudi ruler responded to strong criticism from the West by high-fiving Vladimir Putin in front of the cameras at the 2018 G-20 summit.

   The situation, one might think, is clear: an Islamist country led by a brutal despot. A no-go for Western governments and corporations. But it's not as simple as that.

   Saudi Arabia has transformed so rapidly in the past five years that many barely recognize their own country. MbS pushed through reforms that would have seemed unthinkable only recently. Music, concerts and even dating apps are now permitted, the religious police have largely disappeared from the streets, women are allowed to work, they can travel on their own and they are no longer officially required to wear a veil. Several billion euros have been pumped into efforts to expand the education system.

   In 2019, the country introduced visas for tourists, and foreign visitors are now welcome for the first time. All across the country, billions are being invested in world-class tourist centers, such as al-Ula, an impressive UNESCO World Heritage site in the desert an hour's flight west of Riyadh: hewn rock tombs of long-gone kingdoms that could be straight out of an Indiana Jones movie. The history behind it is explained by young female guides in English. How do they speak the language so well? Were they sent to school abroad? No, one answers with a smile. "Watching a lot of Netflix."

   For many young Saudi Arabians, MbS, himself only 37, is a beacon of hope. A man who is paving the way to a more cosmopolitan, modern future. At one of the country's newly established technical universities, women are training to become engineers and computer scientists. Many of the country's prominent startups have been founded by women.

   "The change we are seeing in everyday economic life here is astonishing," says Dalia Samra-Rohte, the delegate of German industry and commerce for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen at the German-Saudi Arabian Liaison Office for Economic Affairs. And it is clearly felt when you drive around the country and talk to young female engineers, startup founders and project managers. They tell you: We're not all sullen and threatening, we're just trying to become freer and more progressive, and for that we need recognition, not the eternal moralizing arrogance of the West.

   But the truth also includes the fact that no one here likes to be quoted by name and that talking about politics is dangerous. MbS alone decides the extent of the country’s freedoms.

   And that leaves many in Berlin, Brussels and Washington wondering: Mustn’t we support this process of opening? Can we really be partners with such countries? Barely a year ago, the answer to that probably would have been yes, of course. Transformation through trade. But Putin's tanks have flattened that decades-old guiding principle of German international economic policy.

   As such, it's really no surprise that German politicians have to walk on egg shells every time they pay a visit to the region. German Chancellor Scholz first listened to a long monologue about the crown prince's economic visions when he met with MbS in September. Afterward, in a private conversation, the chancellor claims he addressed Khashoggi's murder. Cautiously.

   The journalists accompanying Scholz on that three-day trip at the end of September didn't get to see the crown prince. No one who might ask any critical questions was allowed to approach him. And the chancellor, and this was conspicuous during the long flight in the government airplane, doesn't want to alienate the Arab despots under any circumstances. In Berlin, many are assuming that Putin will be around for some time to come, and no one wants to continue buying energy from Russia while he is still in the Kremlin.

   Politically, too, there are some reasons for Germany and the West to come to terms with the Gulf states. In the short term, they are needed for isolating Putin. During his talks in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Scholz heard from leaders who criticized the Russian leader and distanced themselves from him. The Saudi crown prince, though, was more reserved.

   In the long term, a systemic battle between democracies and authoritarian states is to be expected around the world. In principle, the Gulf region belongs to the authoritarian camp, but that doesn't mean it has to end up there if the conflict comes to a head. The West's relations with countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have traditionally been good; those countries, in turn, tend to sympathize with the states with which they can make the best deals. And that used to be the West.

   The temptation to see the emirs and the princes as good partners is thus significant. On the other hand, though, is the West’s desire to be the protectors of universal claim to human rights – and of the values-based foreign policy that Germany has committed itself to in Chancellor Scholz’s coalition agreement.

   In that agreement, the German government also reiterated its commitment to the weapons embargo that was implemented against Saudi Arabia in 2018. Arms developed by German companies in partnership with other European firms, though, are excluded from that embargo.

   Furthermore, Germany’s Foreign Ministry, under the leadership of Annalena Baerbock, has focused heavily on climate issues – and Saudi Arabia, with its emphasis on hydrogen, makes for a logical partner. Baerbock’s staff believes there are opportunities to be had in the Gulf, with ministry officials speaking of "complementary relationships." Baerbock’s party ally Habeck, over in the Economy Ministry, echoes that sentiment: "Energy partnerships," he says, "are a contribution to détente."

   But neither the Saudi Arabians nor the Qataris have proven to be the obliging raw materials suppliers that Berlin had been hoping for. Christoph Ploss, a member of parliament with the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and chairman of the parliamentary group focusing on relations with the Arab world, accuses the Scholz administration of "having no strategy for the Gulf region." In his conversations with people in the region, he says, he often gets the sense of wounded pride.

   Ploss is demanding that the arms embargo against Saudi Arabia be lifted. "Germany must decide on weapons deliveries on a case-by-case basis. It is ultimately legitimate that Saudi Arabia wants to protect its maritime trade routes and oil refineries from attack – by Iran, for example," says Ploss.

   Arms deliveries are, of course, a political measure to prevent the Gulf states from sliding further toward Russia and China. Particularly given that in both Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., a consensus is developing that the U.S. is no longer a reliable guarantor of security. And if Iran does become a nuclear power, the Saudis may very well welcome assistance from Russia.

   In other words: Being the moral victor could be dangerous for Europe in this era of a changing world order. A purely values-driven foreign and economic policy may be desirable, but preventing an alliance of despots is even more important.

   The flipside of such realpolitik could be seen in Riyadh just a few weeks ago. The crown prince was again hosting his global investment conference, and it was once again held in the horribly pompous Ritz Carlton, where he once locked up his adversaries and robbed them of their power. Just like the murder of Khashoggi, that incident is no longer an issue for the world’s financial and economic elite – for the 7,000 senior executives, bankers and politicians who have arrived to consort with the Saudi leadership.

   Outside, the desert sun is beating down, but inside, the leaders of Goldman Sachs and Blackrock are discussing "a new global order" together with energy ministers, sovereign wealth managers and former heads of government from the West. An order that will naturally include a greater role for the Gulf states.

   "Saudi Arabia and the United States have been allies for more than 75 years," says Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, adding that it will remain that way in the future. He was echoing the message of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who has touted the concept of "friend shoring" in times of war and conflict, which essentially means doing business only with allied nations. The Saudis in the venue applauded when Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon praised the "strong American leadership." Global politics in the Riyadh test tube.

   In times of shifting power blocks and new power centers, it was left to Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of the 620-billion-dollar Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund – and a close friend of MbS – to provide a vision for the future. "I believe strongly in a new global order, if all of us here cooperate closely, as partners." The problem, said Al-Rumayyan, are governments that "think ideologically and not pragmatically," a clear reference to Western countries. Yet the answer, from the point of view of Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi, could be so simple: Let money lead the way.

Commission pledges to move on gas price cap proposal…

1. Conclusion of the day's news:

2. BY CHARLIE COOPER, JAN CIENSKI AND BARBARA MOEN

   POLITICO EU

   NOVEMBER 11, 2022 3:24 PM CET

   The European Commission on Friday promised to put forward a proposal on setting a “temporary gas price cap” ahead of a meeting of EU energy ministers on November 24, according to a Commission letter to EU ambassadors obtained by POLITICO.

   The Commission has come under fierce pressure from a grouping of 15 member countries as well as European Council President Charles Michel to propose a gas price cap to rein in prices destabilized by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Commission is opposed, as is a group of countries led by Germany and the Netherlands, which fear low prices will dissuade gas exporters.

   An EU diplomat said a “crucial mass” of member countries wants “the full proposal to be tabled” before the November 24 meeting. 

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   “The EU needs to have a mechanism in place that limits episodes of excessive gas prices such as those that we have known in August,” says the letter signed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Czech PM Petr Fiala, whose country holds the Council presidency.

   The Commission letter also says the EU needs to prepare for next winter when there will likely be almost no Russian gas on the market.

   “Over next year, markets are likely to remain tight,” it says.

   The Commission plans to boost efforts for countries to jointly buy gas and to look for gas from other suppliers.

   Finally, the Commission aims to put forward a legislative proposal to “reduce the impact of gas on electricity prices” by early next year.

3. Russia will lose the energy war Putin started

   It’s no exaggeration to say that things look dire for the country’s energy sector.

   Russian President Vladimir Putin's energy strategy may hit EU economies in the short-term, but could backfire in the long-term | iStock

   BY AGATHE DEMARAIS

   NOVEMBER 11, 2022 5:00 AM CET

   Agathe Demarais is the global forecasting director at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Her new book on the global ripple effects of U.S. sanctions, “Backfire,” will be released next week.
   
   Russia has turned energy supply into an economic weapon. The strategy is obvious in Ukraine, where Russian drones and missiles are bombing power plants. But it’s also evident in Europe, where Moscow has turned off gas taps and possibly blown up a gas pipeline.

   However, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s master plan now looks set to backfire.

   In the short term, Putin will, indeed, inflict economic damage on European Union countries — that much is inevitable. But in the long run, Russia simply can’t win this energy war. Putin’s maneuver will only accelerate the demise of his country’s energy sector, and precipitate the loss of its coveted status as a global energy superpower.

   Russia’s weaponization of energy has three objectives. The first, which was applicable when the gas taps were still more or less open, was to create uncertainty and prevent EU countries from preparing for what lay ahead.

News round-up, Friday, November 11, 2022.

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Kremlin says Kherson's status as 'part of Russia' unchanged despite retreat

Reuters

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a joint news conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow, Russia February 18, 2022. Sputnik/Sergey Guneev/Kremlin via REUTERS

MOSCOW, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian forces' withdrawal from Kherson would not change the status of the region, which Moscow has proclaimed part of Russia after moving to annex it from Ukraine.

Russia claimed Kherson and three other Ukrainian regions after holding what it called referendums in September – votes that were denounced by Kyiv and Western governments as illegal and coercive. But on Wednesday, in a major retreat, it announced its forces would pull out of Kherson city in the face of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters the region's status was "fixed" and that no changes were possible.

One Wrong Word Can Cost Billions…

A Day with ECB President Christine Lagarde

Europe is threatened by recession, war and a deep economic crisis. Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, is fighting a steep increase in prices as the continent experiences its worst inflation since the introduction of the common currency. Can she pull it off?

By Marc Hujer

09.11.2022, 17.58 Uhr

It's exactly five minutes past seven when Christine Lagarde's spokesperson receives the message that she will pull up at any moment at the agreed to meeting point, a brightly lit Aral gas station in her neighborhood. He had suggested getting there a little bit earlier than absolutely necessary because of the many traffic lights in the area. You never know. He ordered a cab with plenty of time to spare, leaving him with a 20-minute wait at the gas station. It's still dark outside, and nobody pulls in to fill up.

SPIEGEL International

Another two minutes pass before the silver Mercedes rounds the corner, Christine Lagarde's official car. The meeting had initially been scheduled for her apartment, but her staff, responsible as they are for her safety, found the idea a bit heedless. It would have made it clear where she lived.

For the past three years, Christine Lagarde has been the first female president of the European Central Bank (ECB), making her one of the most powerful women in the world. With the key interest rates it announces, the ECB can create or destroy wealth, it can move markets, stock prices and exchange rates. One wrong word from Lagarde can cost billions.

"Good morning," Christine Lagarde says. "Welcome to the car."

She is sitting in the back seat of her Mercedes, behind the passenger seat, her blouse still over her waistband. "What time did you get up this morning?" she wants to know as the car pulls out of the gas station, a question that naturally provokes a question in response. Without uttering a word, Lagarde raises her left hand, bending her thumb so that only four fingers are visible.

At 4 a.m.? Really?!

She nods.

Ahead of her lies one of the most important days in the ECB president's schedule, a "high pressure day," as she puts it. It's the day the Governing Council meets, the ECB's top body that decides on interest rates in Europe every six weeks. The Council membership includes two women and 23 men. In addition to Lagarde, there are five other ECB Executive Board members and the central bank heads of all 19 EU countries that have thus far adopted the euro. She usually takes time to do a few relaxation exercises before heading into the office, Lagarde says, Ashtanga yoga, breathe and hold. But on this particular morning, she had files to study. Four-and-a-half pages. Her chief economist Philip Lane's argument for another 0.75 percent rate hike.

This Thursday, October 27, 2022, will mark the third consecutive time the ECB has raised its key policy rate – this time, from 1.25 percent to 2 percent – after keeping it unchanged at zero percent for more than six years until last July. It's their attempt to stop rising prices. Most recently, the inflation rate in the eurozone stood at 9.9 percent. Nothing worries Europeans more at the moment than rising prices. For the ECB, the stakes are higher than they have been for quite some time.

Lagarde says that not everyone at the ECB thought it was a good idea to be accompanied by a journalist, certainly not on such an important day. But she thinks the opposite is the right approach: The more important the day is, the greater impact her actions have on people's everyday lives, the more important it is, she believes, that the public learns about how things work.

The ECB is an organization with more than 3,500 employees that is responsible for the stability of the world's second-most-important reserve currency after the dollar. It is also the only major central bank responsible for an entire currency area and not just a single country.

It is an organization that, with the exception of experts, few people understand.

As her official car pulls up at the forecourt of the ECB, Lagarde remembers that she's about to be photographed.

But she hasn't yet tucked in her blouse.

It's the only indulgence that the president of the ECB allows herself everyone morning, a little luxury of comfort before she starts work. "When I'm in the car," Lagarde says, "that's when I'm still relaxed, when I can still wear my blouse over my pants."

For a moment, sitting in the car, she considers fixing the wardrobe, with a journalist sitting next to her. The blouse is just a small detail, but small details, she has learned as ECB president, can have great meaning. "I should fix myself up," she admonishes herself. But then it's just too complicated for her, so she gets out as she is.

It takes her five minutes to get through the still darkened, deserted lobby, then on past a security gate, held up for her by a security guard, to take the elevator to the 40th floor of the South Tower, where finally, behind two more security doors and at the end of a very long hallway, her receptionist is waiting.

She greets her warmly and then enters her office, disappearing for another brief moment into a dressing room behind her desk. When she comes out, the blouse has been neatly tucked in.

She has about a half hour now to continue studying the files. Then the Governing Council will meet to set the key interest rate, the rate at which commercial banks can borrow money from the ECB.

The key interest rate isn't the ECB's only instrument for fighting inflation, but it is its most important one. The higher the key interest rate, the more expensive it is for commercial banks to borrow money from the ECB. Commercial banks then try to pass on the increased borrowing costs to their customers. Which means that those interested in taking out a loan to buy property, for example, must pay more to do so. They can't buy as much, which depresses prices, or at least makes them rise more slowly than before.

Lagarde leaves her office at 10 minutes to eight. The Governing Council's meeting room is located on the 41st floor, one floor above her office; no one has a desk any higher in the South Tower. "My blouse is tucked in now," Lagarde says. "We're no longer in 'relaxed mode' now."

The fact that the ECB would raise the key interest rate by 0.75 percentage points this Thursday had already been expected by most experts. An interest rate decision is never made suddenly, because it is always dangerous when central banks do something unexpected. In the past, central banks have triggered massive economic crises, such as the debt crisis in Latin America in the early 1980s, the real estate and stock market crisis in Japan in the late 1980s and the crises in Mexico and Asia a few years later. Investors are prone to overreaction and have a herd mentality. This Thursday meeting is thus about more than just the 0.75 percentage point rate increase. It could provide a glimpse into what the ECB plans to do next. What will the Council decide when it meets again in six weeks?

Lagarde can't say too much, but she also can't say too little. An interest rate decision must be a masterpiece of communication.

She takes the stairs to the 41st floor. The Council members stand together in groups outside the meeting room and drink coffee.

Lagarde already met everyone the previous morning for a "loose exchange of ideas" on various topics, and then again in the afternoon for two 15-minute presentations, each followed by a discussion on financial market developments and the macroeconomic situation. Finally, in the evening, came the "Governor's Dinner" in the dining room of the ECB's North Tower, where they talked about this and that. What they didn't discuss, though, is the exact amount of the interest rate.

That requires an official proposal from the ECB's chief economist, which he has been working on over several days in consultation with the ECB president and finalized on Wednesday night. "He likes to work at night," Lagarde says of Philip Lane, her chief economist. "I'm an early bird." By the time she gets up on Thursdays, Lane has always delivered.

That's another reason that she likes to go to bed early on Wednesdays.

She says she was already asleep by 11 p.m. She left the "Governor's Dinner" earlier than the others, she says, sparing herself the cigar and the bit of cognac that some central bank presidents still allow themselves. Then, at 4:30 a.m., half an hour after she got up, she was sitting in front of the proposal Lane had sent her – and was once again glad she hadn't joined the others for a cigar.

There are advantages to not always wanting to belong.

"I have been an outsider all my life," Lagarde says.

She has always been at the top, but almost always alone – as the very first, and usually as the only, woman.

Christine Madeleine Odette Lagarde, born on January 1, 1956, in Paris, is the eldest of four siblings and the only girl among them. She grew up in Le Havre, the port city in northern France. Her father was a university professor and her mother a teacher, who attached great importance to good manners and was convinced that she was of aristocratic origin. She did genealogical research and had a noble ring minted with the coat of arms of her family. In her eyes, her sons were future counts and Christine a future countess.

Accordingly, the expectations for her were always high, and she often fulfilled them.

When she was 17, she attended the private girls' school Holton Arms in Bethesda near Washington, before going on to study at the best schools in France. She was also a member of the French national synchronized swimming team. But time and again, she would rebel against the strict rules, the ban on smoking at the girl's school in the United States, the recommendation to drink a soft drink only once a week, her mother's aversion to jeans.

For six years, she served as head of the U.S. law firm Baker & McKenzie, then as French agriculture minister, then as economics and finance minister and later, for eight years, as the first woman ever to head the International Monetary Fund in Washington. "As a French woman, I was the head of an American law firm," says Lagarde. "I was a politician with zero political background or party affiliation, I was surrounded by Ph.D. economists as French economics and finance minister and as director of the IMF without having a Ph.D. in economics myself and, finally, I came to the ECB as a central banker with no history in central banking. That is my life. That is the way it has always been."

But she doesn't seem to have any trouble finding her way in those situations.

"If people don't expect you to know what they know, if they think you don't speak their language, but you actually do, you can turn that to your advantage. Then you have the advantage of being able to surprise them."

She is not reserved, no matter who she is dealing with, but she always keeps her distance. She's confident without being overbearing and well-mannered but not precious. She can dole it out without losing her composure. And she never forgets to smile.

She approaches the standing tables with the central bank heads of the 19 eurozone countries, 19 people with serious expressions. At first, they don't notice her. Lagarde then lays her arm on the shoulder of one. "You have to behave," Lagarde says.

It apparently wasn't clear to them that they would have a journalist among them today.

They look at Lagarde, their faces brighten and they start to joke. This prompts one gentleman to immediately utter a reminder that we're in the middle of "times of serious inflation." "We can't be seen laughing," he says. And that makes everyone laugh even harder.

By this point, Lagarde has already long since moved on to the next group.

When she took over from her predecessor Mario Draghi three years ago, many complained about the bad mood in the Council. The Council was split between the hawks, who tended to favor higher interest rates, and the doves, who advocated lower rates.

Mario Draghi was a dove, a champion of low interest rates, and he stayed true to his low interest rate policy until the end of his term in October 2019. He wasn't swayed by the misgivings that many held at the time. He made allies with a few key people and trusted that the rest of the Council would follow him. The hawks, including the president of Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, felt left out, and the mood in the Council grew increasingly hostile.

Monetary policy is a complex business. There isn't just one, economically correct way, but different interests of the 19 eurozone member states that clash in the ECB Governing Council. The ECB must deal with 19 independent governments that conduct their own fiscal policies. Thus, some incur more debt and others less, which is why a lower interest rate is more favorable for countries like Italy and Portugal, which have high levels of government debt, than for countries like Germany with comparatively less debt.

In the end, can there even be one way that everyone thinks is right?

Lagarde has stated from the very beginning that she doesn't want to be pigeonholed into either camp. She has said that she is neither a hawk nor a dove, and she has invented her own category for herself – the owl, a symbol of cleverness. Indeed, her office is full of plush owls she has received as gifts.

At 8 a.m. on the dot, Lagarde takes her place in the meeting room of the Governing Council, with its panoramic view over Frankfurt. Behind her, the office towers of downtown Frankfurt are visible, and above her, the "Europa ceiling," a stylized map of Europe like the one found on euro banknotes. She sits down on her beige leather chair in front of the circular table, where the other Council members are already seated, and opens the meeting.

She only needs three sentences.

She wishes everyone a good morning.

She welcomes an online participant.

Then she passes the floor to her Chief Economist Philip Lane.

What is discussed for the next three and a half hours remains secret. All those who aren't part of the group must leave the room.

There is a lot of discussion in monetary policy about what is right and what is wrong, but it can take months, sometimes more than a year, to really know whether a measure is working as desired. Key interest rates are an especially slow-acting medicine. It takes time for them to develop their full force, for higher interest rates to become lower consumer prices. And sometimes, decisions must be made about increasing the dosage without knowing of the previous dose may already have been too large.

The critique of Lagarde is that she should have raised rates sooner than July, when she made her first rate move from zero to 0.5 percent. Some economists claim that she underestimated the consequences of the Ukraine war, the sudden rise in energy prices, and now had to raise interest rates all the more vigorously. The risk of overdosing the economy may be higher now.

At the same time, it is questionable how much Lagarde can achieve with a higher key interest rate today. Because, unlike the U.S., where prices are rising primarily due to higher demand, higher energy costs are the main driver of inflation in Europe. But higher interest rates can no longer help against higher energy costs.

After a lunch break spent in her office, she meets with her closest aides, including Philip Lane, to discuss the upcoming press conference.

She can't just speak freely – every word can move prices in the markets.

"The highlight is the press conference," says Lagarde. "That is the moment when you are expected to send a specific message. If you move it just slightly, it can have momentous consequences."

That has already happened once during her term, when she declared it was not the ECB's job to lower the risk premiums of Italian versus German government bonds. That's actually a given, but investors thought it indicated a change of course by the ECB and sold Italian government bonds. The value of Italian bonds fell until Lagarde clarified her position in an interview. She learned from the experience.

The press conference is held in a room accessed directly from the lobby. It is equipped like a TV studio, with modern cameras, lighting and staging.

Lagarde has arrived a few minutes early, and the producer stops her in front of the glass door, behind which the journalists are waiting.

"Three minutes left," says the producer.

Lagarde wants to know which camera she has to look to when the questions come not from the room, but from journalists connected online. She wants to know which part of her face can be seen where. She seems tense.

"You'll do great as you always do," says the producer.

"Thank you," says Lagarde. "More of that, more of that!"

Then she asks for water.

"One minute," says the producer.

Lagarde takes a deep breath.

Her yoga moment.

"That's the moment you breathe in," she says.

"If people don't understand what I'm saying, how can they trust me?"

Of particular interest this Thursday is a sentence with which the ECB sets the framework for the interest rate hike that has just been decided." It goes: "The Governing Council … expects to raise interest rates further." It's not a surprising sentence in and of itself. But, and this is crucial, in its last "Monetary Policy Decisions" in September, when the ECB already raised the key interest rate once by 0.75 percentage points, it said: "Over the next several meetings, the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further." The "over the next several meetings" has been omitted in the current text. For the uninitiated, there doesn't seem to be any significant difference. But for the markets, it's cause for speculation. Is the ECB saying that there will be fewer interest rate hikes than had been planned in September?

Lagarde stands behind her lectern in front of a blue wall, flanked by her spokesperson and her vice president, welcoming journalists to the press conference. She is supposed to read the "Monetary Policy Statement" now, the document prepared by her chief economist. She takes a breath; every word has to be right. It's at this moment that she realizes that the teleprompter isn't working.

Later, when it's all over, she recounts that moment, staring at the blank teleprompter. If she hadn't put the manuscript on top of her folder just in case, would she have had to say, sorry, the press conference must be postponed because the teleprompter isn't working? She doesn't even want to think about what would have happened then.

But she somehow manages to maintain her composure. You don't even notice that she suddenly has to read from the page, and after a few minutes the teleprompter starts up again. The first part is done. All that remains now are the journalists' questions, a final test of credibility. Can she also talk about monetary policy spontaneously?

She has watched appearances by her predecessor, Mario Draghi, who, whenever he was asked questions, would pick up his manuscript and say he wanted to read it again. And then Draghi would read out entire paragraphs, word for word. And no one seemed to mind.

During her first press conferences, Lagarde did as Draghi did, picking up her manuscript and reading from it, repeating important passages. But when it was then implied that she could only answer questions by looking at her manuscript because she lacked the confidence to speak freely about monetary policy, she refrained from looking at her prepared speech text and answered freely.

But some claim that she's still only reading her answers.

She spends an hour answering journalists' questions. She has a firm grasp of her words, she speaks freely, and always on message.

Further interest rate steps.

Significant progress.

With each question, it all starts over again.

Then, it's over. She returns to the 40th floor, where she briefly meets with the other directors, who congratulate her on the press conference and study the price developments on their mobile phones. Prices have remained stable, the euro has weakened somewhat against the dollar, but there have been no major swings, no disasters, and that's already something.

She briefly greets her partner Xavier Giocanti, who had been in Marseille with his son the night before to watch Eintracht Frankfurt's Champions League match against Olympique Marseille. Then she heads back to her office.

"The measures we have decided to take today will not have a direct impact on prices in the coming months," says Lagarde. "It will probably take 18 months for them to take full effect. We have to explain that, or people won't understand why we're raising the rates at a time when we may be moving into a recession."

Especially for Lagarde, who is often accused of being less confident about the facts than others because she lacks years of experience as a central banker, it is risky to explain facts in simple terms, without resorting to technical vocabulary.

Critics are quick to jump in and claim that she's speaking kindergarten language.

But she can relate well to other people, she's adaptable and willing to learn. She used to smoke unfiltered Gitanes, but now she prefers to smoke a cigar. But she never becomes a member of the club. She plays along without really belonging.

That's not to some people's taste. They want a central bank president who fits in with their image of that role, into their jargon. When an interview appeared in Madame Figaro magazine in August in which Lagarde told her interviewer that she had just started reading James Joyce's novel "Ulysses" for a second time, an editorial appeared a short time later in the German business daily Handelsblatt criticizing her not only for speaking to a magazine that doesn't deal primarily with economic issues, but also for her interest in a novel. "She is reading James Joyce's exceedingly complex Ulysses' for the second time," the editorial read. "Anyone who does that must have a very strong interest in literature – and time on their hands."

It's not easy to break out of this world that clings to its technical terms and sees comprehensibility as an unnecessary risk, especially now, in such tumultuous economic times. Analysts don't like it when she speaks a different, simpler language than the one spoken in the markets, with its set codes that provide them with certainty. But Lagarde feels she has to try anyway. She says there is no other way to create trust in an institution that has become so important to people's everyday lives. "If people don't understand what I'm saying, how can they trust me?" asks Lagarde. "After all, today people don’t trust someone only because the person expresses herself or himself in a complicated way."

She has one last meeting to take care of and then she is flying off to Dublin, where she will visit the finance minister and the central bank president and appear on a talk show. It will be a completely different audience to whom you have to explain things differently. But she's had plenty of practice at that, going all the way back to when she worked as a lawyer. She always recited her pleas to her children as a test of how understandable she was.

Is she also able to explain the ECB's mission to children?

She takes a moment to think on her sofa in Frankfurt and then answers: "I would probably ask children to take a banknote out of their wallet, if they have one, and then ask them what they see in the top left corner. That's where my signature is or that of my predecessor. And I would say: We are the custodians of the euro, and our mission is to ensure that prices remain stable, that the euro is available and recognized in all member countries. And that children can travel from Italy to France and from Germany to Ireland and always pay with the same currency because we're all in the same club that's respected and appreciated around the world."

She stands up.

Perhaps such an explanation isn't just a good one for children. In any case, it's a decent attempt.

EU faces winter recession as war pummels the economy

Inflation is also expected to stay higher for longer.

EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni | Olivier Hoslet/EPA-EFE

BY PAOLA TAMMA

NOVEMBER 11, 2022 11:19 AM CET

The European Commission now expects the EU and euro area to contract in the last quarter of this year and first quarter of 2023, amounting to a technical recession, before returning to positive growth next spring.

Growth forecasts for 2023 were slashed to 0.3 percent in both the EU and the euro area, a cut of over one percentage point from the previous estimates in July. The downgrade is mostly the consequence of Russia's war on Ukraine, which exacerbated the energy crisis and drove up inflation, as well as tightening financial conditions and hitting business confidence.

"We are approaching the end of a year in which Russia has cast the dark shadow of war across our continent once again," said EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. "Soaring energy prices and rampant inflation are now taking their toll and we face a very challenging period both socially and economically," he said.

What happens to us so-called -human beings-? “AI” reports…forcible transfer of children and other at-risk groupsdeportation of Ukrainian children in Russia…

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“Because we have lost our humanity... counting on winning we are willing to do anything... the horrors of unbridled political ambitions... financial greed willing to do all kinds of —-trickery—- regardless of the damage that is being done... we must review ourselves and meditate on the common good in a just society... I believe not only a “forum” on the damage we have caused to our planet is required... But also a “summit” on the ethical thinking and acting of “EVERYONE”....”

— Germán 6 Co

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Ukraine: Russia’s unlawful transfer of civilians a war crime and likely a crime against humanity – new report

• Russian forces tortured and deported civilians from Ukraine

• Children separated from families after forcible transfer

• Older people, people with disabilities, and children struggle to leave Russia

Russian authorities forcibly transferred and deported civilians from occupied areas of Ukraine in what amounted to war crimes and likely crimes against humanity, Amnesty International said in a new report published today.

The report, “Like a Prison Convoy”: Russia’s Unlawful Transfer of Civilians in Ukraine and Abuses During ‘Filtration’, details how Russian and Russian-controlled forces forcibly transferred civilians from occupied Ukraine further into Russian-controlled areas or into Russia. Children have been separated from their families during the process, in violation of international humanitarian law.

Civilians told Amnesty International how they were forced through abusive screening processes – known as ‘filtration’ – which sometimes resulted in arbitrary detention, torture, and other ill-treatment.

Russia’s deplorable tactic of forcible transfer and deportation is a war crime

Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General

“Separating children from their families and forcing people hundreds of kilometres from their homes are further proof of the severe suffering Russia’s invasion has inflicted on Ukraine’s civilians,” said Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General.

“Since the start of their war of aggression against Ukraine, itself an international crime, Russian forces have indiscriminately attacked and unlawfully killed civilians, destroyed countless lives, and torn families apart. No one has been spared, not even children.

“Russia’s deplorable tactic of forcible transfer and deportation is a war crime. Amnesty International believes this must be investigated as a crime against humanity.

“All those forcibly transferred and still unlawfully detained must be allowed to leave, and everyone responsible for committing these crimes must be held accountable. Children in Russian custody must be reunited with their families, and their return to Ukrainian government-controlled areas must be facilitated.”

Amnesty International documented cases in which members of specific groups – including children, older people and people with disabilities – were forcibly transferred to other Russian-occupied areas or unlawfully deported to Russia. In one case, a woman was separated from her 11-year-old son during filtration, detained, and not reunited with him, in clear violation of international humanitarian law.

People detained during filtration told Amnesty International they had been subjected to torture and other ill-treatment, including being beaten, electroshocked and threatened with execution. Others had been denied food and water, with many held in dangerous and overcrowded conditions.

Amnesty International interviewed 88 people from Ukraine. The majority were civilians from Mariupol, as well as civilians from the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Most, especially those from Mariupol, described coercive conditions that meant that they had no meaningful choice but to go to Russia or other Russian-occupied areas.

Amnesty International considers Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, including the so-called ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (DNR) in the Russian-controlled part of Donetsk Region, to be illegal.

Forcible transfer from Mariupol

In early March 2022, the southeastern city of Mariupol was completely surrounded by Russian forces, making evacuations impossible. The city was subjected to near-constant bombardment, and civilians lacked access to running water, heat or electricity.

Thousands of people were able to evacuate the city towards Ukrainian government-held areas in mid-March, but as Russia gradually occupied the city, it forcibly transferred some civilians in neighbourhoods under its control, cutting them off from other escape routes. Civilians said they felt coerced to go on ‘evacuation’ buses to the DNR.

Milena, 33, told Amnesty International her experience while trying to flee Mariupol: “We started to ask questions about evacuation, where it is possible to go… I was told [by a Russian soldier] that it was only possible to go to the DNR or to Russia. Another girl asked about other possibilities [to evacuate], for instance to Ukraine… The answer came straight away, the soldier interrupted and said, ‘If you don’t go to the DNR or the Russian Federation, you will stay here forever’.”

Milena’s husband, a former marine with the Ukrainian military, was detained soon afterwards while crossing the border into Russia, and has not yet been released.

Forcible transfer of children and other at-risk groups

The laws of armed conflict prohibit the individual or mass forcible transfer of protected persons, including civilians, from occupied territory. In several cases, children fleeing without parents or other guardians towards Ukrainian-held territory were stopped at Russian military checkpoints, and transferred into the custody of Russian-controlled authorities in Donetsk.

As mentioned, an 11-year-old boy was separated from his mother during filtration, which violates international humanitarian law. The boy and his mother were captured and detained from the Illich Steel and Iron Works in Mariupol in mid-April by Russian forces.

They told me I was going to be taken away from my mom… I was shocked…

An 11-year-old boy who was separated from his mother

He told Amnesty International: “They took my mom to another tent. She was being questioned… They told me I was going to be taken away from my mom… I was shocked… They didn’t say anything about where my mom was going… I have not heard from her since.” 

The report also details the forcible transfer to Donetsk of all 92 residents of a state institution for older people and people with disabilities in Mariupol. Amnesty International documented several cases in which older people from Ukraine appeared to have been placed in an institution in Russia or Russian-occupied areas after fleeing their homes. This practice violates the person’s rights, and makes it difficult for them to leave Russia or to reunite with family members in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Once in Russia, several people said that they felt pressured into applying for Russian citizenship, or said their movements were restricted. The process of obtaining Russian citizenship has been simplified for children who are alleged to be either orphans or without parental care, and for some people with disabilities. This was meant to facilitate the adoption of these children by Russian families, in violation of international law.

These actions indicate a deliberate Russian policy related to its deportation from Ukraine to Russia of civilians, including children, suggesting that in addition to the war crime of unlawful deportation and transfer, Russia has likely committed the crime against humanity of deportation or forcible transfer.

Abusive screening processes, detention, and torture

Civilians from Ukraine who fled or were transferred to Russian-occupied areas or to Russia were usually forced through an abusive screening process when entering the DNR, when crossing the border into Russia, and also when leaving Russia for a third country. This process violates their rights to privacy and physical integrity.

At filtration points, officials took photographs of people, collected their fingerprints, searched people’s phones, forced some men to strip to their waists, and interrogated people at length.

Amnesty International documented seven cases where people suffered torture and other ill-treatment during detention. One case involved a 31-year-old woman, another a 17-year-old boy, and five were men in their 20s or 30s.

They bound my hands with tape and put a bag over my head and put tape around my neck…

Vitalii, 31, who was tortured by Russian soldiers while being detained

Vitalii, 31, was detained when he tried to leave Mariupol on an evacuation bus on 28 April. After Russian soldiers declared there was an issue with his documentation, he was forced onto a bus with several other men. He was driven to Dokuchaevsk, a town close to Donetsk, and placed in a cell with 15 men, before being taken for interrogation.

He told Amnesty International: “They bound my hands with tape and put a bag over my head and put tape around my neck… Then they said, ‘Tell us everything… Tell us where you serve, which base?’… [When I said I wasn’t a soldier] they started beating me in the kidneys very hard… I was on my knees, they were mostly kicking me. When they took me back to the garage, they said, ‘Every day, we will do this to you’.”

Amnesty International documented other cases that amount to enforced disappearances under international human rights law, and to the war crimes of unlawful confinement, torture and inhuman treatment. 

Hussein, a 20-year-old student from Azerbaijan, was detained while fleeing Mariupol for Zaporizhzhia in mid-March, and held for almost a month. He was accused of being a member of the Ukrainian military, and beaten while being interrogated.

Hussein told Amnesty International: “One of the soldiers said, ‘He won’t talk like this, bring the electric shocker’… There were two wires, they put them around my big toes and started shocking me repeatedly… They beat me repeatedly… I lost consciousness. They poured a bucket of water on me, and I woke up again. I couldn’t take it anymore, I just said, ‘Yes, I’m a soldier’. They continued beating me, I fell off the chair and they pulled me back up. There was blood coming out of my feet.”

Hussein was threatened with execution, beaten and electroshocked every day, until just a few days before his release on 12 April.

Russia and Russian-controlled forces must immediately stop their violent abuses against detainees

Agnès Callamard

“Russia and Russian-controlled forces must immediately stop their violent abuses against detainees,” said Agnès Callamard.

“The Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court and other relevant authorities must investigate these abhorrent crimes, including those against victims from at-risk groups. All those responsible for deportation and forcible transfer, as well as torture and other crimes under international law committed during filtration, must face justice.”

Methodology

Amnesty International interviewed 88 women, men and children from Ukraine for the report. At the time of the interviews, all but one were in Ukrainian government-controlled areas or were in a safe third country in Europe. One person remained in a Russian-occupied area.

Accountability for war crimes

Amnesty International has been documenting war crimes and other violations of international humanitarian law committed during Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine since the conflict began. All of Amnesty International’s outputs are available here. 

Amnesty International has repeatedly called for members of Russian forces and officials responsible for the aggression against Ukraine and for violations to be held to account, and has welcomed the ongoing International Criminal Court investigation in Ukraine. Comprehensive accountability in Ukraine will require the concerted efforts of the UN and its organs, as well as initiatives at the national level pursuant to the principle of universal jurisdiction.

News round-up, Wednesday, November 10, 2022.

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“Midterms Live Updates: Biden Says Red Wave ‘Didn’t Happen,’ Re-election Decision Will Come Next Year...”

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Editor's Pick:

Control of the House and the Senate remain up in the air as President Biden struck an optimistic tone at the White House. Georgia’s Senate race will head to a runoff, while races in Arizona and Nevada have yet to be called.

President Biden discussing the midterm election results at the White House on Wednesday.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

Jonathan Weisman and Peter Baker

Biden celebrates Democrats’ performance in midterms and says he recognizes voter concerns.

President Biden declared Wednesday that American voters sent “a clear and unmistakable message” that they wanted to preserve democracy and abortion rights, but he acknowledged voter frustrations with stubbornly high inflation and governmental dysfunction.

Speaking at the White House at an extended news conference, Mr. Biden took stock in an election that went surprisingly well for his party, proclaiming he had lost fewer seats in the House than any Democratic president in his first midterm since John F. Kennedy.

This is what Republican politicians and commentators are saying about the election results.

Donald Trump at his election night party at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. He has a history of repeatedly defying those who said he was finished.Credit...Josh Ritchie for The New York Times

It’s a storied American ritual: Two years in, a president whose party just got shellacked hauls himself before the White House press corps to confront his accusers.

President Biden, Houdini-like, escaped that fate on Wednesday with a jaunty news conference before heading off for a planned trip to Indonesia. “It was a good day for democracy,” he said, “and I think a good day for America.”

Instead of Democrats, it is Republicans who are now discussing a reckoning — an outcome few expected on Monday. The On Politics newsletter spoke with Representative Peter Meijer, a Michigan Republican who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, and took a look at Republican reactions from the Capitol and in the news media.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/11/10/putin-will-not-go-to-g20-summit_6003649_4.html

Putin will not go to G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia

The decision not to attend the summit next week comes as Moscow is suffering losses in its war in Ukraine.

Le Monde with AFP

Published on November 10, 2022 at 04h37, updated at 07h43 on November 10, 2022

Time to 1 min.

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his speech at a ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of Russian Federal Medical-Biological Agency in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022. SERGEI GUNEYEV / AP

Russian president Vladimir Putin will not attend the G20 leaders' summit on the Indonesian resort island of Bali next week, Moscow's embassy in Indonesia told AFP on Thursday, November 10. "I can confirm that (foreign minister) Sergei Lavrov will lead the Russian delegation to the G20. President Putin's program is still being worked out, he could participate virtually," said Yulia Tomskaya, the embassy's chief of protocol.

US president Joe Biden, who has called Mr. Putin a "war criminal", previously said he had no intention of meeting Putin at the summit if he attended.

The decision, which follows months of speculation, comes as Moscow is suffering losses in its Ukraine campaign and as the Kremlin tries to shield itself from Western condemnation at the November 15-16 summit.

Russia on Wednesday ordered its troops to withdraw from the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine in a further setback in the face of Kyiv's counter-offensive. Another source with knowledge of Russia's planning for the Bali event confirmed that Mr. Putin would be replaced by Lavrov. The person said it was unclear if the Russian leader would attend virtually.

Ron DeSantis just sent a BIG 2024 message

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 2230 GMT (0630 HKT) April 8, 2022

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference on February 24, 2022, in Orlando.

(CNN)Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has raised more than $100 million for his 2022 reelection bid, a stunning sum that speaks as much to his national ambitions as it does to his prospects in the Sunshine State.

DeSantis is widely regarded as the biggest star not named "Donald Trump" within the Republican Party. He regularly runs second to Trump in 2024 straw polls and often wins them outright when Trump is not included.

And unlike many other Republicans mentioned as possible 2024 candidates, DeSantis has not said he would get out of the race to make way for Trump.

Which, of course, Trump has taken notice of. "I think that most of those people, and almost every name you mentioned, is there because of me," Trump told The Washington Post earlier this week about the potential field. "In some cases, because I backed them and endorsed them. You know Ron was at 3 percent, and the day I endorsed him, he won the race."

It's unclear what DeSantis makes of all of this. His 2022 reelection campaign gives him a convenient excuse to deflect all 2024 questions until after November. (Polling suggests he is a clear favorite for a second term in Republican-leaning Florida.)

But make no mistake: DeSantis and his allies very much meant to send a message with his fundraising totals. (According to CNN, he appears to be the first governor to break the $100 million mark in fundraising solely through donations.)