Biden and Xi Jinping try to defuse tensions at G20 summit in Bali
Ukraine war, inflation, energy crisis, recession and climate change on the table
Growing global polarisation revolves around the new 'cold war' between the US and China.
PABLO M. DÍEZ
Special envoy to Bali
13/11/2022
Updated 14/11/2022 at 09:09h.
ABC
If there is one place capable of calming the troubled international waters, it is undoubtedly Bali. This Indonesian island paradise, with its white sandy beaches, coconut palms and turquoise waters, hosts what is likely to be the most heated G20 summit of the year tomorrow and Wednesday. A forum that brings the richest and most industrialised nations of the West, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, and the major developing powers, such as China, India, Brazil and Russia, to the same table.
With a wide range of opinions and political systems, important issues such as the war in Ukraine, inflation, the looming energy crisis, the threat of recession, global warming and the growing global polarisation around the new 'Cold War' between the US and China will be on the table. To defuse the tension between the two countries, which have engaged in open economic and political hostility, their presidents, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, are taking advantage of their presence in Bali to meet today before the start of the G-20 summit.
Although they have spoken several times by videoconference, this is their first face-to-face meeting since Biden arrived at the White House in January 2020 and comes three weeks after Xi was perpetuated in power at the 20th Communist Party Congress. While Xi comes in as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao, as he proved by ousting former President Hu Jintao from Congress, Biden is bolstered by better-than-expected Democratic results in the recent midterm elections.
Red lines
Apart from this similarity, the differences between the two are so great that no agreement is expected and they may not even sign a joint declaration. But just the fact that they sit down to talk face-to-face is a step forward and, at the very least, will help them to agree on the issues that confront them. Or, as Biden put it last week, "to draw our red lines". Before leaving for the climate summit in Egypt and the Southeast Asian (Asean) summit in Cambodia, he explained that what he wants to do when he talks to Xi is to "understand what he thinks is in China's critical national interest and tell him what I think is in the US's critical national interest, and determine whether or not they conflict. And, if they do, how to work it out and make it work".
Although they spoke by videoconference, it was their first face-to-face meeting since Biden came to the White House.
Their biggest clash is Taiwan, the 'de facto' independent democratic island claimed by Beijing that Xi Jinping has vowed to reunify, by force if necessary. For China, it is such an important issue that last summer it conducted its biggest military manoeuvres in the Formosa Strait in retaliation for the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In the face of threats of a hypothetical Chinese invasion, Biden has already repeatedly angered Beijing by promising that the White House would assist Taiwan militarily. A statement that his advisers have been forced to qualify by assuring that Washington has not changed its "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan or its recognition of the 'one China' policy, but insisting strongly on the current 'status quo' and opposing Beijing's takeover of the island.
Adding to this military tension is the recently released US National Security Strategy, which identifies China as its 'greatest geopolitical challenge' and a more dangerous threat than Russia despite the war in Ukraine. To contain Beijing's military and technological rise, Biden has also banned the sale to Chinese companies of the most advanced microchips, which are manufactured in Taiwan. This veto, which could delay China's technological development by up to ten years, infuriates the regime, as its foreign affairs spokesman, Zhao Lijian, made clear in one of his recent press conferences: "The US must stop politicising, ideologising and weaponising trade issues and take real action to defend the market economy and the international trading system".
Technological independence
But, as Chris Hung, vice president of the Taiwanese consulting firm MIC (Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute) tells ABC, "the new US government regulation is trying to slow down the development of China's semiconductor industry by five to ten years. As such bans apply to highly advanced technology or technology with military applications, the impact on other countries will be quite limited.
Given the unease that the veto has provoked in China, which has suffered a "very precise and forceful" blow to its plan to achieve technological independence, according to Hung, the US president is confident that he will not have to make "fundamental concessions" in his meeting with Xi. At the same time, he will seek to give Taiwan security assurances, something Chinese foreign spokesman Zhao Lijian strongly opposes.
Nuclear weapons
Add to all this military tension their disagreements over the war in Ukraine and Xi Jinping's implicit support for Putin, with whom he signed a "friendship without limits" just before the Russian invasion, which Chinese propaganda refuses to define as such. Biden will try to wrest from Xi a commitment to oppose Russia's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did earlier this month on his criticised whirlwind visit to Beijing.
His biggest shock is Taiwan, the 'de facto' independent island that Xi has vowed to reunify, by force if necessary.
It will be harder for Biden to get Xi to condemn the constant provocations of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, who is feared to be ordering another nuclear test after spending the year firing all manner of missiles.
Although expectations for agreements are very low, it is hoped that the meeting will at least serve to resume talks between the two countries on global warming, military communication and the trade war. All of these collaborations, vital to the development of the economy and the future of humanity, were interrupted after Pelosi's trip to Taiwan and analysts hope that the Bali summit will help to unblock some of them.
An island paradise with an atmosphere conducive to deal-making
Smiles on every face, which are also unabashedly worn because few people wear Covid masks, dreamy beaches, luxury resorts, tropical heat and beautiful Balinese dances as a welcome. As Indonesian diplomatic sources privately acknowledge, the island of Bali brings all its charms to create the right atmosphere for G20 members to reach important global agreements. In addition to industrialised countries such as the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Canada, South Korea, Australia and Spain as a permanent guest, developing powers such as China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, as well as the European Union, are part of the forum. Held in the beautiful area of Nusa Dua, where Bali's best hotels are concentrated, the G20 is held under heavy security measures to prevent jihadist attacks like the one that killed 202 people in the bars of Kuta 20 years ago.
In 2019, when the G-20 was held in the Japanese city of Osaka, the occasion was used to bring together former US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who signed a truce to the trade war. Although Biden has not lifted the tariffs imposed by Trump, he will try to use his long-standing relationship with Xi to bring positions closer together and build bridges. The two have known each other personally since 2011, when they were both vice presidents and paid several visits to each other, but times have changed as much as they have.
In fact, Biden has even had to clarify in a press conference that he is not an "old friend" of Xi's, but that the two were linked by a "purely working" relationship. Interestingly, the now US president was, during his time as a senator in the late 1990s, one of the biggest advocates of China's inclusion in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which has caused so many problems for certain Western industries.
Saviour of communism
For his part, the Chinese president has lost the smile he wore on his trips to the US, such as his 2012 return visit to Biden, and has become the most authoritarian leader since Mao Zedong. Traumatised by the disintegration of the Soviet Union, which he wants to avoid at all costs in China, Xi Jinping sees himself as the saviour of communism and champions its totalitarian model against the democracies of the West.
Returning to the international stage after almost three years without leaving China because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Xi meets with Biden to try to improve relations in Bali. If any place is conducive to soothing exalted global tempers, it is surely this beautiful and peaceful Indonesian island.