Spain declares Truman Capote Persona Non Grata

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Check out the article from Energy Central at www.energycentral.com for more helpful information about the changing energy industry.

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In December 2023, Energy Central recognized outstanding contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were celebrated in six articles, highlighting the community's appreciation for their valuable contributions. The platform offers industry professionals a space to display their work, engage with colleagues, and work with prominent figures. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman, showcasing their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Truman Capote was met with predominantly negative reception in Spain in 1979—a response attributed largely to the controversial nature of his outspoken conversations in Manhattan. The author’s writing adeptly captured the essence and sophistication of urban gossip and the practice of discussing various individuals with his inner circle, igniting exchanges through his persistent explorations and lively dialogues, which were evocative of a carefully crafted Manhattan cocktail. Upon the long-awaited release of his posthumous work, Answered Prayers, in 1987, it was discovered to be a captivating and playfully mischievous delight. Of course, for some, the content of the story became untimely and embarrassing, especially for certain members of the European royal houses. (1)

As one traverses the thoroughfares of the largest Balearic Island, the radiant sun illuminates the sea, unveiling the azure hue of the Mediterranean along with the mirage of the royal atmosphere, surrounded by the gossip that swirls around Marivent palace. Nevertheless, an individual’s beverage of choice compromises their cognitive functions, hindering their ability to interact with the environment. The persistent repetition of Umberto Tozzi’s Gloria elicits unease, as the portrayal of a refined woman in a messy bar foments intrigue, leading to contemplation about her presence during the disorder. (2)

The venue was enveloped in cigarette smoke, generating a hazy ambience, while strategically positioned, remote-controlled searchlights projected bright beams of light across the area. The interplay of light and smoke generated otherworldly atmospheres that exceeded mere translucency. The elegant woman remained hidden within the swirling mists, intermittently illuminated by the flashes of the dance floor lights. (3)

Unconsciously, Truman Capote casually observed the elegant woman with a sun-kissed complexion standing significantly apart from the vibrant dance floor, adorned in a range of white and off-white hues. Amidst a multitude of light shades, the profound blue of her eyes, depicted in watercolour, emerged as the singular contrasting feature, captivating and unique in the thick of the prevailing colour scheme. She consistently occupied a fixed position in her corner at the lively bar of the discotheque. (4)

In the summer, Truman strolled along the sunbaked sidewalks of the island at midday. The heat radiating from the cement tiles quickly permeated the hemp material of his espadrilles, causing the soles of his feet to burn with each step. Despite his attempts to find shelter by pressing against the facades of the houses, the unyielding sun overpowered him. No respite could be attained in such extreme temperatures, particularly given his dehydration, which resulted from alcohol consumption, inadequate food intake and other adversities. (5)

Francisco Franco’s demise marked Spain’s resurgence into a new era, supposedly one of freedom and liberty. The Spaniards navigated this uncharted territory with incredulity, unfamiliarity and apprehension as they gradually adapted to the freedom of expressing themselves without fearing retaliation. Adolfo Suárez’s transitional administration received praise for its skilful management, and Europe warmly embraced the burgeoning democracy in the country. (6)

The Spanish Transition refers to the period in Spain's contemporary history during which the country transitioned from the dictatorial regime of General Francisco Franco to a democratic system governed by a Constitution. This period marked the beginning of the reign of Juan Carlos I and is considered part of the "third wave of democratization," which commenced with the "Carnation Revolution" in Portugal in April 1974 and concluded with the collapse of communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe in 1989. Following the brief period of the Second Republic, the Transition represented the second significant democratization process in Spain's twentieth-century history. (8)

The previously widespread advertising campaigns discouraging Europeans from visiting the Iberian Peninsula became obsolete, significantly increasing the continental tourism that had inundated the entire country, particularly the Canary and Balearic Islands. (9)

The sun’s intense glare rendered Capote temporarily blind. He proceeded towards the row of houses and resumed his journey to Palma Nova, approximately twenty minutes away. Near the beach, he traversed Passeig Mar to reach the riverbank sidewalk and descend to the coast via the initial entrance from Palma. (10)

Upon arrival, he meticulously scrutinised every metre of sand to search for his friends, who were blending in with the other beachgoers. The horizon had undergone a dramatic change, resembling a lush landscape with various peaks striving towards the sun. (11)

The scene featured various shapes, positions, consistencies and tones. Capote quickly removed his espadrilles and hurried towards the point where the waves merged with the shore, eager to alleviate the discomfort in his feet caused by the hot sand. Immersed in the refreshing sensation of the cold seawater soothing his overheated feet, he inadvertently observed a nearby young couple’s fervent romantic interactions. (12)

In a moment of unconscious harmony, the infatuated, passionate couple inscribed their names inside a heart drawn on the sand, expressing everlasting commitment with their gaze, solidifying their connection within the fleeting domain of self-absorbed closeness. Nevertheless, life’s harsh reality quickly invaded their moment of bliss as the unyielding waves, propelled by the unforgiving water, erased the message carved just moments earlier. (13)

Navigating through the throng of beachgoers, Capote looked up again, scanning the multitude of young people for his friends. One interested him, his—Adonis—of summer passion named Pancho, but he could not find him once again. Advancing purposefully, he was accompanied by the rhythmic sound of the waves crashing onto the shore amidst the subtle scent of hashish and cold San Miguel. (14)

Carefully navigating the terrain and occasionally leaping over people lying down, he endeavoured to maintain balance on the sandy dunes without accidentally colliding with sought-after young women. Capote was amazed by the diverse ways in which the beachgoers were relaxing, and he continued to stroll, observing the variety of individuals enjoying the summer. (15)

Several of the breasts appeared lethargic, sorrowful and lacking moisture, burdened by distress and pervaded by despondency. The conveyed desolation mirrors Modigliani’s masterful portrayal of taciturn faces and elongated bodies. They displayed profound distress, akin to mambas tormented by wormwood or suffering due to the inexorable passage of time. (16)

Capote was intrigued by the fecund women, who possessed graceful proportions and exquisitely sensual qualities resulting from their anatomical exaggerations. They reclined nearly unclothed, clad in minuscule undergarments, experiencing complete liberation and detachment from societal norms. The breasts of these adolescent girls exuded a sense of freshness, positioned impeccably on the upper torso, round and adorned with a pale-pink hue accentuating striking dark-brown nipples. (17)

Unfortunately, their anatomical structures appear small compared with the voluptuous bodies that typically evoke passion in Botero’s depictions of plump women. (18)

Capote remained perplexed by the stark differences between the women. While observing them, he noted their remarkable bone structures, which were elegantly long and slender and could be seen through their veiled skin, ranging from ochre brown to moss green. The contours of their bodies were prominently defined, and he could not help but perceive the pear-shaped appearance of their breasts, embellished with halos encircling the nipples. They conjured the image of an elegant tall woman with a happy expression resembling that of a cat, as portrayed in the art of the Chinese Lam, against the setting of the Cuban jungle. (19)

Unconsciously, he gazed out over the expansive ocean, seeing numerous silhouettes against the radiant backdrop of people enjoying the sea, their laughter and happiness resonating across the waves. (20)

The marine environment evokes memories of familiar summer scenes depicted in Sorrolla’s paintings, immersing the observer in a world characterised by warmth and vibrant colours. Sorolla, the renowned painter known for his mastery of light, skilfully portrays individuals on the beach, preserving their moments of relaxation and interpersonal bonding. The artist’s work depicts the purity of unclothed children enjoying themselves in the water, a straightforward joy that may be misinterpreted by viewers influenced by unjustified apprehension. (21)

With vision obscured by being positioned opposite a light source, Capote could discern the silhouette of a young, strikingly beautiful woman emerging from the water. She paused briefly to retrieve a nightgown discarded on the sand. After draping the tunic over her exposed breasts, the moisture from her body caused the fabric to cling to her skin, producing an uncommon luminosity on her chest and accentuating her breasts’ flawless shape. (22)

The mambas are considered flawless, maintaining the elegance of a freshly cut diamond, possibly owing to the absence of the commotion and activity that the current timeline does not yet offer. The young woman recalled the portrayal of a beautiful lady by Sorrolla, skilfully depicted in a transparent robe, with a chaperone draping a white blanket over her back to shield her from the chilly sea breeze as she exits the bath. The scene evokes a sense of a charming painting reminiscent of a tranquil dawn when time seems to pause, capturing the essence of innocence and beauty intertwined in the ocean’s gentle embrace. (23)

Alexandra was an unconventional discotheque, located in Magaluf, diverging from the typical establishments in that it was not enveloped in darkness and lit by the sombre ultraviolet lights accentuating the color white. Instead, it was brightly illuminated, creating an inviting ambiance for its patrons. There were two bars spanning a 360-degree view, where single individuals congregated in search of entertainment and to mingle with like-minded individuals, adding to the lively and vibrant atmosphere. (24)

Six bartenders positioned within the bar area engaged in a performance distinct from the one on the dance floor. During an impressive routine, the individuals threw empty bottles backwards, causing them to shatter against a wooden box. The shards prompted a stir among the audience, momentarily diverting their attention from their enjoyable social interactions. (25)

Two Jamaican disc jockeys executed alluring dance moves on a specially constructed platform above record players, resembling captivating serpents that further entranced Capote’s already susceptible heart. (26)

A mature woman with a sun-kissed complexion and enchanting deep blue eyes consistently drew interest from younger individuals as she leaned against the bar counter. Around 2 a.m., approximately twenty girls and boys gathered around her. The source of the magnetism she possessed—whether it was her fluent Spanish pronunciation with a traditional accent, her deep and rough voice typical of a heavy cigarette smoker or the calm and daring nature of her uncommon stories— was unclear. (27)

Nevertheless, the youth were compelled to share their time with this lady, who seemed to belong to a different era. Her enigmatic allure challenged the young men: An older woman who regularly occupied a seat in a bar and was surrounded by a younger crowd may prompt curiosity. It is worth noting that her name is Marilyn Zetterlund. (28)

Marilyn, manipulating cigarette smoke and distancing herself from the group on occasion, succeeded in further beguiling her impromptu spectators, prompting her to resume sharing her stories. (29)

‘As previously mentioned, Edvard Munch depicted the human soul through his art; he focused on portraying people’s emotions, which was his central preoccupation.’ (30)

‘He characterised himself as a painter of emotional states. He depicted the inner essence that resides within the soul.’ (31)

‘Occasionally, individuals, including those who may not be entirely human, bear profound and intricate traumas.’ (32)

‘A deficiency of certain biological fluids in the brain can result in disruptive imbalances in the nervous system.’ (33)

‘That is the nature of life, whether it be advantageous or disadvantageous .’ (34)

Marie expressed her thoughts verbally and with all her body, at happiness does indeed exist. (35)

‘We probably achieve a state of complete equilibrium that may be referred to as overall well-being or superficial happiness, for brief periods. However, I do not believe this is all. I posit that this also comprises the small moments of immense happiness experienced during childhood, intertwined with equally fleeting periods of intense sadness and grief, during which we cry until we have no more tears to shed and then fall into a deep sleep, thereby regaining energy for the following day.’ (36)

‘Evidence suggests that Munch did not experience happiness, if we examine his experience of a severe panic attack during an afternoon stroll in Oslo with friends. Munch’s desperation drove him to cover his ears with unbridled force as he sought to cope with the moment’s anguish.’ (37)

‘The experience of depression wrested a despondent scream from him into the void in an attempt to break free from the distressing episode. This event had a significant impact on Munch’s life.’ (38)

Following the resolution of the crisis, Munch retreated to his studio and produced a series of four paintings depicting the afternoon’s impactful experience. (39)

This particular series, which he titled The Scream, is undeniably the most renowned among his works. (40)

‘I will now address any uncertainties you may have about me and explain the reasons for my daily presence here.’ (41)

‘I do not enjoy being alone. I am experiencing fear. As you may comprehend, I feel a sense of companionship in your presence here.’ (42)

‘Additionally, I am intrigued by this club due to its vibrant atmosphere. The clarity of this club is advantageous to me.’ (43)

As dawn approached, the excitement among the discotheque patrons intensified. On the dance floor, one of the two Jamaican disc jockeys showcased his innate rhythmic abilities, moving fluidly like a snake in slow motion to the music of Isaac Hayes’ Shaft while perched on the mixing desk. (44)

Meanwhile, the other DJ meticulously synchronised the turntables to play the most poignant song of the early morning: Sad Eyes by Robert John. (45)

Sad Eyes evoked intense emotions among the residents of Alexandra. Furthermore, the musical motif aided in dispelling doubts about the success of efforts to conquer the night, igniting the spirits of the numerous individuals captivated by the allure of the Mallorca dawn. (46)

The nightclub patrons hurriedly made their way to the dance floor, almost running in pursuit of sexual encounters. (47)

The scents emanating from the couples combined the fragrances of oestrogen and testosterone, arousing latent senses through the physical embrace of the opposite sex. (48)

He proceeded with subconscious affection, nearing the point of climax, provoking in the other person the erotic self and physical desires. The hands expressed emotions, metaphorically undressing the subject in the mind’s eye. Bodies were constrained by a deliberate inertia, openly seeking desired release. Expressions of affection during the summer also grew more cherished, calling forth the peak of youthful innocence. (49)

‘I will not forget you,’ the lover whispered into the other’s ear, leaving behind a trace of their breath. (50)

Ladino’s endeavours were a far cry from youth’s limited and naive intellectual capacity. (51)

Similar to repetitive playback, young men repeatedly expressed obvious nonsense to impress a young girl. The youthful movement consistently relied on repetitious elements, lacking intellectual depth and inquisitiveness. (52)

‘You are remarkable . . . You possess unique qualities . . . Exceedingly pleasant . . . Your eyes exhibit many colours; they resemble violets . . . or perhaps they are more akin to emeralds; all I can ascertain is that they are exceedingly charming,’ uttered the inexperienced heartthrob. (53)

During the final stanza of Sad Eyes, the youthful individuals reconvened with the refined woman to resume listening to her narratives in the corner of the bustling bar. (54)

Alcohol consumption influenced the woman’s demeanour. Her voice deepened, her narratives grew more serene and the subjects turned more erotic and stimulating. (55)

"I'll tell you a story that has a lot to do with your present state of mind. (55)

"That state of mind, what's it called?" How?... (56)

"Ex... Excid... Excited... ayyy... How difficult... ---Help me... (57)

"Oops, let's see, better, easier. "Hot." Is that okay? "Hot" is the right word... (58)

The laughter of the young people was contagious; In the vicinity you could hear the sound of bottle glass crashing into wooden crates. (59)

The figure of this elderly Norwegian lady, leaning against the bar, with the  hard shackle that she had reached at that hour, created such a rapport with the citizens of the discotheque that the interest in listening to the stories extended to the  bartenders on the other side of the marble circle. (60)

With the cigarette in her right hand that she wouldn't let go out, a mocking smile examining each of the youthful faces with her eyes, trying to establish the necessary mystery for her next story, Marilyn began. (61)

—I'll tell you that Munch created a second series of five works that he called "The Madonna." The series is also known as "Munch's Madonna". It is guessed that with this work Munch tried to describe the sexual states of you, humans... It's an interpretation. As you will understand, no one was in Munch's mind, so no one can assert that these reflections are entirely true; However, I'm pretty sure they're close to his thoughts because, after all, we're all human. (62)

—Munch's Madonna is a rectangular composition. In the center of the painting he placed a young woman, more of an adolescent, I would say. You can also distinguish the upper part of his body in a pose of pleasure, or in search of pleasure, or desiring pleasure... (63)

The young individuals exhibited a heightened interest in the story’s impending commencement. (64)

‘I will share a narrative closely related to your current mindset.’ (65)

‘What is the term for that state of mind?’ (66)

‘In what manner . . .?’ (67)

‘The process of excision is currently being studied in the laboratory.’ (68)

‘I am feeling excited and overwhelmed. Can someone help me with this challenging task?’ (69)

‘Upon further examination, it is evident that there are opportunities to improve and simplify the process.’ (70)

‘The temperature is high. Is that acceptable? The appropriate term is “aroused”.’ The youth’s joviality was infectious. (71)

The sound of glass bottles crashing into wooden crates could be heard nearby. (72)

‘Nevertheless, I am confident that they closely align with his thoughts, as we are all human.’ (73)

On the outer edges of the artwork, forming a rectangular shape around the young woman, Edvard depicts a group of sperm cells in a race. This scene was initially interpreted as an unrestrained competition to reach the female’s womb, which is always a source of pleasure for eager sperm cells in their quest to fertilise an egg. (74)

Paulette raised an inquiry. ‘That is the exact point that I intended to convey to you.’ In the second speculation, we deduce an urgent need for the reproductive system, the womb, to acquire developing, incipient fish upon hatching, which is instrumental in ensuring reproductive success. Continuity. (75)

Furthermore, this explains why Munch included a foetus in the composition at the beginning of the sperm shoal. (76)

Some individuals, particularly males, perceive the foetus as a malevolent being that women must manipulate to fulfil their desires for male offspring. (77)

‘My dear friends, I am not so drunk yet; soon, women will have the power to create lives in vitro . . .’ (78)

The expressions of astonishment and exclamations of ‘wow’ filled the bar, reflecting the young people’s fascination with the stories. (79)

‘Paulette sighed, expressing her dismay at the behaviour of certain individuals,’ someone remarked. (80)

In chorus, the men responded, ‘You.’ Expressions of affection. (81)

As widely recognised, the winter season in Norway is so extensive that it seems never-ending. The length of daylight is limited, and the lack of natural light profoundly impacts the human spirit, spawning a widespread occurrence of mental illnesses.  --- (82)

Ann-Charlotte, from Scotland, one of the Capotes Swan, raised a question. (83)

‘I am referring to the experience of feeling lonely and sad during the autumn and winter months . . .’ Norway was home to one of the most remarkable painters in art history, Edvard Munch. (84)

‘Edvard was an impressionist painter, a master who did not depict facial features, let alone anatomical details.’ (85)

--- What did Munch paint, then? Again, Ann-Charlotte asked a question. (86)

‘The concepts of faces and bodies serve as a disguise or facade, allowing individuals to conceal their inner emotions. This is exemplified by Munch’s decision to forgo faces or bodies in his art .’ (87)

At this particular moment, Capote took advantage of a pause in Marilyn’s graceful demeanour to begin narrating to the young audience. In his distinctively effeminate and dramatic manner of speaking, he entertained them with the terrifying story of almost being fatally gored by a fierce bull. The incident occurred as he habitually travelled extensively to share unwelcome stories with specific individuals. (88)

Although his storytelling lacked distinction, it served as a reminder that love can be embraced without any distinctions. This historical truth, entrenched in centuries of tradition and secrecy, has significantly influenced the behaviour and attitudes of European royal families. This phenomenon has led to the development of a culture characterised by concealment and discretion, which continues to influence how individuals navigate personal relationships and manage their public image, even in contemporary times. (89)

Royal families still hesitate to openly acknowledge this reality and address the potential implications that may arise if an heir to the throne were to engage in a same-sex relationship. The historical truths are poignant reminders of the intricate and multifaceted nature of royal families, marked by a profound shroud of secrecy and tradition. (89)

This phenomenon significantly impacts their interactions and personal relationships within constantly changing societal norms. (90)

A bartender leaned in towards a group of patrons at the opposite end of the bar, shaking his head with a wry smile. (91)

"The journey that this aunt and uncle have taken us on has been quite remarkable," he commented, his voice reflecting both fatigue and amusement, "with the absence of pressures that drive us mad in the court. It's almost surreal to experience such tranquility and freedom from the demanding expectations that usually weigh heavily on our shoulders, allowing us to savor each moment without the looming shadow of duty and responsibility." (92)

The speakers emitted a familiar refrain of "Gloria, Gloria, Gloria," evoking a tangible feeling of absence in your proximity.  The warmth of innocence was present in the imperfection of my words, inadvertently bringing forth your name and weaving it into the fabric of my narrative.  The famous song sparked widespread excitement among the youthful audience, each aspiring to imitate the iconic duo of Olivia Newton-John and John Travolta. (93)

As the musical performance concluded the September evening, its chorus reverberated through the air, creating a striking juxtaposition to the pressing requirement for oxygenation among Alexandra's residents. (94)

"Marilyn...  Marilyn...  Marilyn..."  Ann-Charlotte called out to the sophisticated woman seated in her corner of the bar. (95)

"We are definitely going to intend to rescue Marilyn's from her corner," announced Sarah with infectious enthusiasm to the entire group. Our plan is to entirely surprise her with a meticulously planned and joyous birthday celebration that will surely lift her spirits. Despite Ann-Charlotte's persistent urging, Marilyn seemed immobilized in her spot, and the situation appeared to become more dire by the minute. The tension in the air was palpable as everyone held their breath, hoping for a breakthrough moment from Marilyn. (96)

As Ann-Charlotte searched the room frantically, her heart pounding with worry, she finally spotted Marilyn and rushed over to her, gently taking her arm. Unfortunately, Marilyn, her senses clouded by the overwhelming effects of alcohol, stumbled towards the exit door, seemingly unaware of Ann-Charlotte's presence and the concerns of her friends. (97)

At the early hour of 5:00 a.m., the first gentle rays of dawn could be faintly discerned in the atmosphere, hinting at the imminent arrival of a new day. The group, still cloaked in the lingering fatigue associated with leisure, felt the tug of drowsiness, coaxing them to seek out some well-deserved rest. (98)

The gang walked up to Capote's old Seat 500 parked near the ocean. He quickly walked ahead, got the keys from his pocket, and prepared to unlock the car's door. Opening the door was sluggish, attributed to the wear and tear of the time and the continual indulgence in certain pleasures in the early morning. (99)

The group closely observed Pancho's movements and exhibited impatience and eagerness to board the vehicle.  Capote's lover raised his right hand, displaying the keys to Alexandra's citizens and, subsequently, inserted them into the lock.  He applied the required force to the handle to open the door, only to find himself unexpectedly holding the handle, unable to open it.  In response to the unexpected situation, Pancho raised his hand high, displaying his confusion to his friends with a worried expression, eliciting hearty laughter from the group amid this unusual circumstance. (100)

In a prompt response, the individual addressed Capote: "Access the vehicle using the alternate door."  The Seat 500s had only two doors. Dismayed, Pancho opened his arms and said the other door was broken.  The group became increasingly concerned, causing the event to transition from a lighthearted tone to comic and tragic. (101)

Everyone lowered their heads to devise a resolution to the incident in Mallorca.  Pancho endeavoured to assume control of the situation and prepared to attempt to open the car.  He lifted his head and observed the silhouettes of three civil guards wearing tricorn hats and panicked as he realized he did not possess a passport.  This led to worries of entrapment by the authorities, apprehension about potential incarceration, and uncertainty about how to extricate himself from the situation.  Surprisingly, the civil guard's voice emanated amidst the three police officers. (102)

"Child, I am a highly skilled and experienced thief, known for my unparalleled expertise in unlocking secure mechanisms. Allow me to swiftly and deftly unlock the car, showcasing my exceptional capabilities in this craft." (103)

Alexandra's residents, to the astonishment of onlookers, appeared oblivious to their surroundings, seemingly unperturbed by the extraordinary occurrence. (104)

The friendly Civil Guard calmly approached the driver's door, wearing a warm smile as he deftly manipulated the handle until he successfully opened it, putting the driver at ease with his reassuring demeanor. (105)

"Please come aboard promptly," the captain called out, his voice carrying a note of urgency as the crew prepared for the voyage ahead. (106)

As the night faded away, signaling the arrival of daybreak, it became increasingly evident that it was time to retire for the night—or better said, time to embrace the gentle, golden hues of the sunrise. (107)

Pancho, what a night it has been. We've delved into the most complicated depths of our brains and souls, exploring the intricacies of our thoughts and emotions. It's been an intense journey of self-discovery and reflection, prompting us to confront aspects of ourselves we've never dared to explore before. (108)

“But Pancho, this case is nothing new at all! The Triangle of Love, a term steeped in history, pertains to the deep, significant, and intimate bond that the legendary Alexander the Great shared with his trusted companion and general, Hephaestion. Throughout historical records, Hephaestion is depicted as not only Alexander's closest friend, but also as a confidant he trusted wholeheartedly, and a key witness to the most pivotal events in his extraordinary life. This particular relationship held even greater significance, especially considering that Alexander married his second wife, Aesthetira, in 370 BC. (109)

‘My dear Pancho, love involves a complex interplay of intimacy, passion and commitment.’ It is worth disentangling. (110)

Capote enticed his summer paramour with the grace of a bullfighter. (111)

‘What compels such dishonesty?” he objected, asserting that it is inherent in humans to be tempted. (112)

Some individuals derive pleasure from all things and people, whereas others, plagued by perpetual discontent, pursue the experience of a ménage à trois. (113)

Historically, women have been exploited primarily as vessels for pregnancy to guarantee the birth of a male heir.

What is the rationale behind the rigorous confidentiality? (114)

In a global context where there is widespread curiosity about the peninsula, the question of why information is concealed arises. (115)

Pancho, What is the key to this phenomenon? (116)

The information ascribed to Don Jaime del Burgo by Don Jaime Peñafiel, and some published in X by del Burgo as the original source, is likely to be reliable, as evidenced in several published works. Comparable information has also been circulated by David, the esteemed cousin of Mrs. Letizia Ortiz Rocasolano. (117)

There are currently no ongoing defamation lawsuits against the authors, but of the proceedings instituted, none have engendered favourable outcomes. It is essential to take into account the expertise and discretion of the authors, as they are loath to jeopardise their professional reputations by disseminating inaccurate information on these delicate subjects. (118)

The precise whereabouts of the secret remain uncertain and shrouded in ambiguity, creating a pervasive sense of unease. The foremost worry revolves around the detrimental effect on family members, especially the vulnerable daughters, who are profoundly impacted by the ramifications of this unpleasant circumstance. The pervasive uncertainty casts a shadow over their daily lives, leaving them grappling with the distressing consequences of the undisclosed truth. (119)

Moreover, the disarray in the royal chambers bears on the political and legal frameworks of the nation. One may inquire about the rationale behind this. Opinions of royal family members regarding fundamental political issues—la anmistía—in the country have been expressed, and major Spanish media establishments are currently practicing unprecedented self-censorship, subverted thanks to the Fifth Estate—the media embodied by social networks, especially of diligent and responsible YouTubers who have dug the antecedents to the bottom of the mine, as it were. (120)

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The honesty gap: public vs. private individuals…

The mindset of an individual who engages in cheating is a complex and intricate composition characterized by profound emotions and underlying motivations. The French dramaturg Jean Racine's thought-provoking statement, "To be unfaithful, you must first believe you are loved," encapsulates the complex nature of infidelity as a manifestation of our deepest vulnerabilities and insecurities. This powerful reflection suggests that acts of unfaithfulness often stem from a fundamental need for validation and reassurance. While some people view infidelity as an innate aspect of human behavior, others harbor genuine concern regarding its potential detrimental impact on trust and the dynamic of interpersonal relationships.

The stark contrast between the personal and public personas of influential figures when they choose to engage in acts of infidelity serves as a cause for concern, sparking worries about the potential misuse of their authority and the erosion of democratic principles as they prioritize self-preservation over accountability. The ongoing debate surrounding the delicate balance between individual freedoms and the imperative to ensure the safety and well-being of the populace has gained further prominence in light of recent developments in Social Media Manager. It is increasingly evident that different regions across the globe uphold distinct societal norms, ethical benchmarks, and principles relating to personal freedoms, national defense, and the safeguarding of civilians.

There are myriad perspectives on the concept of infidelity and disloyalty, with some proponents even positing that infidelity may not have a concrete existence. Today, we will meticulously examine the intricate and multifaceted characteristics of an unfaithful individual and thoroughly investigate the underlying motivations driving their behavior. What, then, is the precise and comprehensive definition of unfaithfulness? This profound inquiry encapsulates the very essence of infidelity as a grievous breach of trust and a calculated betrayal of the sacred bonds within a relationship.

The celebrated Colombian author and Nobel laureate Gabriel García Márquez delves into an intricate web of human connections, drawing attention to the complex interplay between individual yearnings and steadfast allegiance with his timeless quote, "One can be unfaithful, but never disloyal." This profound insight shines a spotlight on the intricate dynamics of human emotions and the intricate dance between personal aspirations and unwavering faithfulness.

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Secret infidelities in monarchies have long been a source of scandal and intrigue

The difference between infidelity and disloyalty is rooted in the practice of deceit, as infidelity entails engaging with others while disloyalty involves hiding this infidelity from one's partner.  This definition brings us to the historical events in which various monarchies allegedly took part secretly, consenting infidelities kept hidden to comply with strict rules of succession until they were discovered by the public.

These clandestine relationships were carefully managed to ensure the legitimacy of heirs and maintain the monarchy's stability, even if the affairs were ultimately brought to light.

The act of forgiving infidelity is a delicate and intricate process that carries significant risks for all parties involved.  This sensual play is dangerous not only for the individuals entangled within it but also for the very fabric of democracy.  Furthermore, navigating the forgiveness of infidelity involves grappling with diverse interpretations of betrayal, spanning from physical intimacy to suggestive messages.

Unfaithful individuals frequently exhibit a distinct profile that may be attributed to various factors, such as a strong desire for novelty and excitement outside of their current relationship, a lack of fulfilment in their existing relationship, or other complex and deeply rooted personal reasons driving their behaviour.

The frequent display of jealousy stemming from guilt or fear of retaliation is a notable characteristic that further complicates their interactions.

Moreover, their volatile emotions can lead to unpredictable conduct and intense manifestations, frequently culminating in aggression and a fervent desire for dominance within their relationships.

Relying solely on a significant other for reassurance and affection can create additional tension in the relationship, particularly when conflicting perspectives on love come into play, leading to a reassessment of conventional relationship dynamics.  After experiencing a breakup resulting from infidelity, the unfaithful partner may quickly pursue a new relationship, driven by a deep longing for companionship and a fresh start.

Finally, numerous individuals who engage in infidelity attempt to fulfil their emotional needs through inappropriate sexual interactions, further perpetuating the cycle of deceit and betrayal.

A defeated fighting bull spends its final moments in the ring with the bullfighter cermonially attempting to cut off its ears and tail; thus, the outcome leaves neither the bull nor the bullfighter a true winner. The same can be said for a couple who has experienced infidelity in their relationship.

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Self-censorship…

The spiral of silence theory posits that individuals holding divergent opinions frequently opt to withhold their views, yet the influence of social media may be disrupting this customary behavior. The conversation is not dominated by the majority, but rather by the vocal minority, leading the majority to self-censor. This study examines the influence of political identity and ideology on the tendency to self-censor and experience fear of social isolation when using social media.

The study reveals notable variations in self-censorship and apprehension of social exclusion among strong conservatives and liberals, in contrast to the more moderate majority, through the survey of a diverse range of participants. The study also elucidates the impact of divergent political ideologies on the apprehension of social isolation among Democrats and conservatives.

In recent years, the polarization of various issues has not only led to divisions in political discourse but also in public sentiment. Social media platforms have evolved into arenas where diverse viewpoints contend, often resulting in the marginalization of certain voices and perspectives.

Throughout 2020, online discourse encompassed topics such as the use of masks, the opposition to masks, the Black Lives Matter movement, the counter-movement of all lives matter, and the political figures of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. These subjects rapidly became politicized as they gained popularity were on Twitter and attracted attention from vocal figures and social media influencers.

Nevertheless, findings from a 2020 poll revealed found that the majority of Americans opted not to utilize social media as a platform for expressing support for causes, encouraging others to do so, or engaging with hashtags associated with political or social issues. This data indicates that, notwithstanding the prevalence of new and trending topics, the majority of individuals are opting to stay silent.

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The Five Power…

Ignacio Ramonet, a highly esteemed Spanish academic, journalist, and author, is widely recognized for his substantial impact on the fields of media and communication. Throughout his time as the previous editor-in-chief of Le Monde Diplomatique, Ramonet has devoted significant efforts to comprehensively analyze global media and investigate the profound influence of information technologies. His insightful viewpoints on globalization, neoliberalism, and the function of mass media in contemporary society have received extensive acknowledgment. Moreover, Ramonet's extensive notion of the fifth power encompasses various influential aspects, including the Internet, public opinion, economic systems, currency, and the Church.

The Internet presents a strong case for being considered the 'Fifth Power'. It functions as a distinctive social mass medium that operates independently of state regulation, potentially enabling individuals to participate in democratic activities and facilitating the democratization of global communication and information. It has evolved into a platform for amplifying voices and providing space for the expression of diverse perspectives.

Furthermore, YouTube has played a significant role in this particular case. The inclusion of diverse content creators and insightful interviewees, such as Maica Vasco and Laura Rodriguez, along with the notable interview of Dr. José Miguel Gaona by Jaime Peñafiel, enriches the exploration of intricate topics.

This stands in stark contrast to the limitations of the Spanish mass media, contrary the huge coverage of international press. Ignacio Ramonet's extensive work and research have greatly influenced the discourse on media and communication, contributing significantly to the understanding of global power dynamics and the role of information technologies in shaping contemporary society.

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We aim to provide high-quality, accurate information. Your support keeps us independent and our journalism balanced. Donate 2 euros or any amount to help us continue delivering precise, well-researched articles. Thank you for standing with us. -The Team

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The intention to trigger a worldwide conflict should be readily apparent…

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Check out the article from Energy Central at www.energycentral.com for more helpful information about the changing energy industry.

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Energy Central's 'Top Voices' event in December 2023 acclaimed exceptional contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network. Winners were featured in six articles, showcasing the community's gratitude for their valuable input. The platform provides industry professionals with a space to showcase their work, interact with peers, and collaborate with leading voices.

Congratulations to the Top Voices of 2023: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman, a testament to their expertise. -Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Why did Hamas decide to behave aggressively despite knowing how it would affect Palestinians, Israelis, and the global community?

The image is from Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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1. Collaboration between political groups and countries is apparent as it facilitates sharing resources, information, and skills on a significant scale, fostering a sense of unity and cooperation in a high-stakes stage to create a global conflict.

2. In light of recent events in the Middle East, where Hamas is blamed for Israel's third occupation, creating a contentious international debate, the geopolitical ramifications are widespread, with global leaders weighing in on the escalating tensions and the potential for a lasting resolution seeming more uncertain than ever.

3. Moreover, the association of Hamas with the ongoing Suez Canal crisis has led to significant diplomatic tensions beyond the region's confines.

4. The importance of this vital waterway cannot be overstated, with approximately 1 million barrels of crude oil and 1.4 million barrels of gasoline and other refined products being transported daily from the Middle East and Asia through the canal to Europe.

5. In the past three weeks, authorities from various European countries, including Sweden, Finland, and Norway, have raised alarms and issued warnings regarding a potential conflict with Russia.  The escalating tensions in the region have prompted these nations to openly express their grave concerns about the impending possibility of a military confrontation with their eastern neighbour, reflecting the urgent need for collective efforts to address and mitigate such geopolitical challenges.

6. The "no man's land" is a disputed region crucial for international trade.

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We aim to provide high-quality, accurate information. Your support keeps us independent and our journalism balanced. Donate 2 euros or any amount to help us continue delivering precise, well-researched articles. Thank you for standing with us. -The Team

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A) Foreword:

'No man's land' is a disputed region crucial for international trade…

Consequently, the situation has evolved into a focal point of intense geopolitical friction, sparking heated diplomatic negotiations and fierce battles for influence among various key stakeholders, leading to a complex and dynamic power struggle with far-reaching implications.

This opening passage delves into an intricate and longstanding issue that began in 1916, marking the start of an ancestral conflict. The historical roots of this deeply ingrained dispute have persisted over generations, shaping the dynamics of society and infusing the present with the weight of the past.

It is essential to comprehend the underlying reasons for the inhumane actions that transpired during an electronic music concert in southern Israel on October 7th of last year, which resulted in innocent young people being harmed.  It is crucial to distinguish between the historical events of the nations involved and the overarching narrative that has fostered a deep sense of betrayal amongst both populations, possibly stemming from the Sykes–Picot agreement, an egregious historical treaty negotiated without the consent of the nations claiming the no man's land.

The fact remains that we need to confront the violent actions of Hamas, which continually seeks to create disorder in the region.  At the same time, we must carefully consider the impact of Benjamin Netanyahu's extremely conservative government's harsh and retaliatory tactics, to which Hamas was already profoundly accustomed.

The Israeli Prime Minister was visibly enraged and stunned by the treacherous and carefully planned poison gas attack orchestrated by Hamas.  The attack, designed to create chaos reminiscent of a Trojan horse, was deemed a significant failure by the Israeli intelligence establishment.  As the leader addressed the nation, his voice reflected a mix of anger and determination to bring those responsible to justice.  He vowed to pursue "an eye for an eye" and "a tooth for a tooth"” showing an unwavering commitment to holding the perpetrators accountable for their actions.  Amidst the solemn atmosphere, the prime minister also emphasized the need for unity and resilience among the citizens, calling for solidarity in the face of such cowardly acts of violence.

Netanyahu meticulously, ruthlessly, and controversially executed a strategic and calculated scheme against Hamas' secret resources, perhaps for valid and pressing reasons stemming from the threat to Israeli security. Only time will demonstrate if Benjamin Netanyahu's actions are justified and effective in addressing the ongoing challenges posed by Hamas..  However, this provocation has resulted in enormous casualties in the civilian population, particularly innocent children, who have endured immense suffering as a result of these ongoing conflicts.  The military actions by the Israeli army have been labelled as atrocities by many countries, including some influential Middle Eastern allies to the sovereignty of the state of Israel. This has led to widespread condemnation and calls for immediate intervention from the international community to address the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.

It is essential to acknowledge that Hamas possesses a comprehensive understanding of how Israel will respond to any attack, underscoring the significance of their grasp of the potential repercussions of their actions within the intricate political landscape of the region.  Furthermore, Hamas and its allies are mindful of the current global conditions, which have been shaped by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing conflicts, and the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar global order.  These circumstances present hazards to public health and safety, carrying the potential to sow discord, famine, and desolation, and could potentially give rise to conflicts reminiscent of those witnessed during the interwar period.  Historical evidence suggests that significant economic turmoil often exacerbates interpersonal hostilities among individuals.

Acknowledging different levels of responsibility emphasizes the importance of establishing a comprehensive and impartial historical account to comprehend this conflict's many layers and complexities.  Adopting a precise and objective approach to documenting the events and decisions involved is crucial for developing a comprehensive understanding of the various dimensions of responsibility in question.

Growing up in a South American country with a strong tradition of multiculturalism, I witnessed how many people in Chile sought refuge from xenophobia or war over the last century.  Despite occasional periods of significant intolerance, during which anti-democratic factions from both sides undermined self-ruled principles, Chileans have continuously strived to uphold their commitment to inclusivity and mutual understanding.  In my country, students from diverse cultural backgrounds coexist harmoniously in educational settings, fostering genuine acceptance, understanding, and mutual respect amongst a wide-ranging population that includes Palestinians, Israelis, Germans, Yugoslavs, Italians, Spaniards, French, English, and many others, creating a rich tapestry of experiences and perspectives within our educational institutions.  This rich cultural mosaic has enriched our educational experience and contributed to a more profound sense of empathy and global awareness among the younger generations.

Moreover, in my developmental years, I regularly spent a significant amount of time at my maternal grandparents' residence, where I could profoundly engage with my family's rich heritage and hear firsthand about their experiences.  During one of these memorable visits, I gained a deeper understanding of the human repercussions resulting from the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict.  This eye-opening experience left a lasting impact, significantly influencing my comprehension of the complex intricacies of the world around me. This impact still resonates 50 years later.

Unbeknownst to me, my grandparents had neighbours from Palestine who were adept at hunting turtledoves and engaging in skyshooting.  It was a surprising sight for me when I witnessed Don Emmanuelle, my nono, skillfully preparing the small birds in an Italian style before graciously offering them to our Palestinian friends, ensuring all the pellets were meticulously removed.  The cultural exchange between our families was unexpected and heartwarming.

In the cold winter of June 1967 in Southern Chile, I frequently visited my dear fellows from the Far East.  One of those present was Mary, a charming young girl with a serene smile that could illuminate an entire room.  Upon entering their secluded, open-door home, I observed a perplexing, melancholy atmosphere permeating the air.  Assembled at the dining table, everyone had a sombre countenance mirrored by pristine, uneaten plates of white rice, symbolizing the weighty responsibility they bore.  A photograph depicting President Nasser was a poignant reminder of the family's grief and mourning during the brief conflict known as the Six-Day War, overshadowing their joyful gatherings.

This poignant moment has sparked a deep reflection within me about the complex dynamics of cultural coexistence and the enduring historical tensions that exist between these two nations who find themselves without a home, both vying for ownership of a space that belongs to no one—the timeless observers of the immensely significant waterway vital for global maritime trade, the Suez Canal.  The important waterway has been central to many disagreements, symbolizing global relations and trade between countries.

The other challenge regarding this analysis is carefully considering a starting point in this longstanding conflict.  This crucial task demands a meticulous and comprehensive evaluation of past occurrences and their widespread influence on the present circumstances. It is imperative to delve deeply into historical events to gain a profound understanding of their enduring implications.  Thus, it is imperative to seize this opportune moment to delve into the intricacies of the Sykes-Picot memorandum—a pivotal agreement signed in 1916.  The memorandum's repercussions have profoundly influenced the region's dynamics and persisted in moulding its geopolitical landscape and shaping the political and social fabric of the affected nations over the past century.

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B) The Sykes-Picot Agreement:

Signed in 1916 between Britain and France, the Sykes-Picot Agreement resulted in the division of the Ottoman Empire's territories, including Palestine, without due consideration for the welfare of its inhabitants.

The agreement has become well-known for its divisive impact in the region, stirring deep-seated tensions and grievances. Both diplomatic envoys were highly cognizant of the sensitive nature of the conflict, understanding the complexities and intricacies of the region's history and competing interests.

They exerted considerable effort to uphold equilibrium and appease both parties while advancing their strategic and economic objectives. Nevertheless, the preservation of Britain and France's economic interests, encompassing oil, natural gas, and the management of the Suez Canal, continued to be their foremost concern, casting a shadow of suspicion over their professed commitment to the region's well-being. Despite their careful planning, the repercussions of their actions remain evident, echoing through generations and shaping the contemporary political landscape of the Middle East.

The disclosure of the Sykes-Picot Agreement in the early 20th century caused significant upheaval among the Palestinian and Israeli communities, inflicting profound discontent and disillusionment that reverberates to this day.

The agreement was viewed as a direct infringement upon the Palestinian people's right to self-determination and independence, an imposition that disregarded their deep-seated aspirations for a sovereign and unified state. Similarly, the Jewish population in Palestine experienced a sense of betrayal as the agreement failed to acknowledge their valid national aspirations rooted in their historical ties to the land, perpetuating a climate of distrust and discord.

The repercussions of the Sykes-Picot Agreement continue to reverberate in the region to this day, exemplified by the lasting legacy of arbitrarily drawn borders that have fueled persistent conflicts and tensions. To sum up, the enduring significance of the Sykes-Picot Agreement serves as a stark testament to the profound sense of betrayal felt by Palestinians and Israelis alike. This historical accord's implications persist, perpetuating and inflaming ongoing conflicts and further deepening the divisions between these nations. Its profound influence on collective memory has shaped the course of events in the region, leaving an indelible mark.

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C) Why did Hamas choose to take actions that could worsen the situation for Palestinians, even though they were aware it would cause problems?

Palestinians, in the midst of prolonged suffering and often overshadowed by geopolitical agendas, have faced an ongoing struggle to assert their agency in their own plight. Some experts contend that, given their limited options for influence, Hamas embarked on a bold and risky strategy to garner attention and support within their community. However, others challenge this view, suggesting that Hamas has displayed a lack of genuine concern for the well-being of Palestinians. To approach this issue with greater objectivity, it is essential to take into account the widespread disdain with which the Arab world regards Palestinians, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics at play in this intricate situation.

“Subsequent to this, Palestine’s significance to other nations diminishes; however, the Arab world has emerged as a major and steadfast supporter of the Palestinian cause. This has led to a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, with human rights, international law, and normative considerations playing a relatively minor role. Therefore, it is imperative for the Palestinian leadership to acknowledge this influential support and actively pursue the formation of coalitions and alliances within the Arab world to advance their cause.

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D) The profound impact of surprise attacks throughout history includes the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey:

Hamas comprehended the widespread and lasting repercussions of the attack, which negatively affected individuals residing in the West Bank and Gaza.  Furthermore, Hamas' actions had no impact except for galvanizing ultra-fundamentalist Arab groups to launch a united campaign against Israel.  This is the sole reason behind the appalling assault on civilians that occurred on October 7th, leading to further dire consequences for the Palestinian population.  However, history did not conclude here.  

The ultra-extremist Arab group was clandestinely planning to instigate an unprecedented regional or global conflict, capitalizing on the ultra-conservative Israeli government's internal power struggles.  Such surprise attacks have long been recognized as a military strategy that can create disorder, devastation, and success throughout history.  These unexpected assaults can prompt opponents to quickly review and revise their strategies, resulting in swift and resounding successes for the attackers, shaping the future course of the conflict.

Considering this historical perspective, we must acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding its applicability in the current situation.  While some argue that principles from past conflicts may not directly align with our evolving geopolitical landscape, it is undeniable that the enduring significance of surprise and strategic manoeuvring persists.  Just as ancient commanders relied on catching their opponents off guard, we are similarly compelled in our competitive environment to innovate and devise novel approaches to outmanoeuvre our adversaries.

Some examples highlighting the profound impact of surprise attacks throughout history include the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey, which vividly demonstrates the significance of strategic deception in penetrating Troy's defences.  

Similarly, the stunning victory achieved by Hannibal, leader of Carthage, over a more formidable Roman army in the Battle of Cannae in 206 BC shocked the ancient world and underscored the potency of surprise tactics.  Moving forward in history, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 marked a pivotal turning point in World War II, showcasing the capacity of surprise assaults to reshape the course of conflict.  

Post-World War II, surprise attacks continued to shape global events, with China's unexpected involvement in the Korean War of 1950 catching United Nations forces off guard and prompting a reorganization of the Korean Peninsula.  Furthermore, Israel's utilization of surprise tactics during the Six-Day War of 1967 and the October War of 1973 underscored the enduring impact of strategic cunning in the face of threats from neighbouring countries.  

The tragic assault on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11th, 2001, and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic are stark reminders of the far-reaching consequences of unforeseen events, prompting societal shifts and unveiling deep-seated inequalities across the globe.

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E) The Resurgence of Arab Diplomacy: Three Monarchs and a Wild Card:

Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, along with the 'Wild Card' Qatar, are attempting to use diplomacy as a crucial instrument of statecraft to influence and project power on the global stage within their constraints. 

In the broader Middle East, it has long been apparent – and generally accurate – that the Arab states are in disarray.  The region has faced corruption, warfare, extremism, ineffective leadership, and social, political, and economic challenges.

These factors have put the states in a disadvantageous position compared to the more assertive non-Arab powers in the area, namely Israel, Turkey, and Iran.  Although the situation has not completely transformed, Turkey and Iran still face significant obstacles related to their respective governments.

Diplomacy is still conducted by everyone in the region, and they can do it well.  Diplomatic skills can be present, but a country's ability to act may be limited by its reliance on foreign powers or money, internal conflicts, or political considerations.  Some countries in the region are struggling, which hinders their ability to engage in diplomacy.  However, there are other states, such as Oman, that perform well in this regard. It is important to note that these are relatively minor players on the global stage.  Jordan and Egypt are skilled diplomatic actors, but their dependence on others due to economic or security considerations limits their effectiveness.  Iraq, a substantial country like Egypt, could play a more critical role in the region. However, internal power struggles that have not yet been fully resolved limit its ability to do so.

In recent years, there has been a resurgence in Arab diplomacy by some countries in the region that have stood out for their independence, impact, and determination to exert influence and promote their interests.    While three of these states generally exercise this diplomacy with a view to a more stable and ultimately better region, the fourth state plays a spoiler role, enabling some of the more retrograde and destructive tendencies in the region.  I have named these four states the three 'Kings' (Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia) and the 'Wild Card' (Qatar), due to their differing policies and initiatives.  All four states are authoritarian hereditary monarchies. While some policies may be disagreeable, it is possible to understand their reasoning and perspective.

The four states are generally considered 'independent' as they are primarily motivated by internal self-interest. They have successfully manoeuvred even when faced with pressure from external powers, including the United States and the European Union.

Under the reign of King Muhammad VI, Morocco has made significant progress in consolidating its control over the Western Sahara region. It has gained recognition from Western countries and leveraged its position as a gateway to the European Union to gain advantages over neighbouring Spain and rival Algeria. It is important to maintain objectivity and avoid subjective evaluations.

However, it is worth noting that Morocco was involved in the 'Catargate' scandal, which highlights its ambitions.  Morocco is a country that effectively employs diplomatic strategies despite lacking the oil wealth of other states.

The UAE has been the most capable actor in the region for several years, utilizing both soft and hard power to advance its interests. It has a presence throughout the region, from Libya and Sudan to Yemen and Syria.

While I do not support the despised Assad regime, I can comprehend the UAE's reasoning for reintegrating the Damascus regime into the Arab community to counteract Iran's ambitions. Whether this will work is uncertain, but one can only admire the extent of their ambition.

The UAE has worked diligently to establish itself as a leading voice of religious tolerance, as evidenced by the Abrahamic Family Home complex following the 2019 Document on Human Fraternity signed in Abu Dhabi, and climate change, by hosting the COP28 climate-change talks later this year.

Monumental changes in effective diplomacy have also been observed in Saudi Arabia.  Historically, this country has spent a lot of money but has shown very little progress.

Under the leadership of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the Saudis have implemented a compelling strategy that combines domestic reforms, rebranding, and diplomacy. For instance, they recently signed a comprehensive security agreement with Iraq.[1] While it remains to be seen whether these efforts will succeed in distancing Iraq from Iranian influence, they are a wise move.

Saudi Arabia's recent pledge to end 'unconditional' foreign aid, which is often wasted or counterproductive, was long overdue.  This message was particularly important for places like Ramallah and Beirut, which have traditionally been recipients of Saudi money but have not always used it effectively. 

In 2022, during a visit by President Joe Biden, the Saudis demonstrated their diplomatic and media skills by having Turkey's Erdogan come to Riyadh and humbly request some favours. This followed years of Turkish provocation against the kingdom, as well as against the UAE and Egypt.

The United States has had to adjust its policies towards Saudi Arabia, rather than the other way around.  The Saudis and Emiratis have managed the tension arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US preoccupation with it adeptly, without damaging their relationships with any other countries.

Additionally, all three nations have pursued an independent and assertive foreign policy, which includes a new approach to Israel.  The United Arab Emirates and Morocco have taken steps towards improving their relations with Israel. The UAE has done so openly and enthusiastically, while Morocco has taken a more gradual approach.

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F) The Suez Crisis:

It began on October 29, 1956, when Israeli armed forces invaded Egypt towards the Suez Canal.  The canal controlled two-thirds of the oil used by Europe and was nationalized by Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser in July of that year.  French and British troops joined the Israeli forces, which strained their relationships with the United States and almost drew the Soviet Union into the conflict.  Ultimately, Egypt emerged as the victor, and the British, French, and Israeli governments withdrew their troops in late 1956 and early 1957.  This event was significant in the context of the Cold War superpowers.

The Suez Canal, which was constructed in Egypt under the supervision of French diplomat Ferdinand de Lesseps and operated jointly by a British–French organization, was nationalized by Egyptian leader Nasser in July 1956.  The Suez Canal, which opened in 1869, separates Egypt from the Sinai Peninsula and connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea, facilitating the direct shipping of goods between Europe and Asia.  Due to its significance in international trade, it quickly became a source of conflict among Egypt's neighbours and Cold War superpowers vying for dominance.

The Israeli–British–French attack on Egypt was prompted by Nasser's nationalization of the Suez Canal, which was supported by Soviet arms and funding.  The British were angered by the move and sought the support of the French and neighbouring Israel for an armed assault to retake the canal during secret military consultations.

The crisis resulted in the United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF) deployment and had significant repercussions.  These included the diminishing influence of Britain and France as world powers, the elevation of Nasser as a mighty hero in Arab and Egyptian nationalist movements, and the reopening of the Suez Canal in 1975 as a gesture of peace.

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G) Recent shipping disruptions, like the Suez Canal crisis, have increased geopolitical instability:

According to Fitch Ratings, ongoing shipping disruptions and the re-routing of vessels away from the Red Sea are expected to continue imposing a geopolitical premium on major commodity markets, including oil, gas, chemicals, and fertilizer. These disruptions and elevated geopolitical risks, exacerbated by recent shipping incidents, are projected to sustain premiums on oil prices. Nevertheless, unless there are substantial disruptions to physical oil production or a widespread intensification of attacks on vital oil transport routes in the region, it is unlikely to substantially affect the projected Brent price for 2024.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the combined oil shipments through the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait represented approximately 12% of the total global seaborne oil trade during the initial half of 2023. Notably, the Houthi rebels have directed most of their attacks towards the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. As a consequence, several prominent companies and shippers have ceased transit through the Suez Canal, opting to reroute around the African continent. While these developments are likely to momentarily constrict the oil and gas markets, necessitating adjustments in supply chains, they are not anticipated to exert significant impacts on prices. Notably, with OPEC+ maintaining over 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity as of January 2024, and a well-matched balance between global oil supply and demand, the overall outlook envisages ample supply in the global oil market throughout 2024. The IEA's projections indicate a moderate expansion in global oil demand for 2024, influenced by diminished global economic growth and a deceleration in China's oil consumption growth. Furthermore, the TTF gas price assumption for 2024 remains unaltered.

Disruptions spreading to the vital passage of the Strait of Hormuz, exerting their impact on the production levels of oil and gas, would inevitably yield more discernible consequences for the worldwide oil and gas markets, ultimately resulting in sustained escalation of prices. The European chemicals sector, reliant on imports from Asia, has already borne the brunt of diminishing demand owing to the deceleration of the global economy and the destocking activities prevailing throughout the chemical supply chain. The potential of supply disruptions stemming from delayed shipments in the Red Sea is poised to further impinge upon the already beleaguered sector. Furthermore, the export of fertilizers passing through the Red Sea constitutes a substantial share, approximately 7%, of the overall potash market while accounting for about 5% of the global phosphate rock market. Moreover, the mounting freight rates are anticipated to exert additional strain on profitability, with shipping expenses constituting roughly 10% of the prevailing fertilizer prices.

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H) The "axis of resistance”:

The term, used to describe the alliance of Iran and its allies in the Middle East, gained renewed attention in October 2023. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken issued a warning, emphasizing the United States' readiness to swiftly and decisively respond to any attack originating from Iran or its affiliated groups in the region. The White House explicitly pointed fingers at Iran for allegedly facilitating assaults on U.S. military installations in Syria and Iraq. Furthermore, suspicions arose regarding Iran's potential role in backing the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel. This situation has heightened concerns surrounding Iranian influence in the area and has sparked apprehensions of a wider conflict. While the United States has stated that there is no direct evidence linking Iran to the Hamas attack, various analysts and regional experts have emphasized the tangible connections between Iran and the actions carried out by Hamas.

Hamas is an independent Palestinian movement that has received funding and weapons from Iran despite facing challenges in their relationship, including disagreements over issues such as Syria's civil war. Furthermore, Hamas receives support from Turkey, a Sunni Islamist group.

The '“axi of resistance” is an informal alliance of regional forces with varying degrees of support from Iran. The alliance includes Sunni and Shia Muslim groups and governments in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq with varying degrees of ties to Tehran. The Iranian regime and its Quds Force have expanded this network due to their shared resistance to Western powers and Israel.

The Axis comprises of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian regime, Shia militias in Syria, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq. These groups have varying relationships with Iran and with each other. Although Hamas is part of the alliance, it maintains a separate identity and has supporters other than Iran.

Increased coordination between Iran-backed groups has led to meetings between Hezbollah and Hamas to discuss the situation in the Middle East. The aim of the coordination is to achieve a victory for the resistance in Gaza and Palestine and to oppose Israel's actions. According to experts, there has been increased cross-border coordination among these groups as Iran has been working to unite its proxies against Israel.

The unity of Iranian-backed proxy groups could impact the ongoing conflict in the region, which may require allied organisations to offer military support if any member groups encounter a significant threat. Tight control of the battlefield is crucial in preventing a wider war from engulfing the region.

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I) That said:

Hamas has been widely recognized as responsible for instigating conflicts not just in Israel, but also in other areas around the world. Without a doubt, their actions have had far-reaching consequences and have contributed to triggering conflicts in various regions. Conversely, The Sykes-Picot Agreement, revealed in the early 20th century, had a significant impact on the Palestinian and Israeli communities, resulting in widespread dissatisfaction and loss of faith. The agreement, while intended to usher in a new era of self-determination and independence, ultimately led to dashed aspirations, unmet promises, and a profound sense of disillusionment among the affected populations.

The Palestinian people, deeply entrenched in their longing for self-determination and independence, were profoundly aggrieved by what they perceived as the egregious transgression of their rights through the Sykes-Picot Agreement. This historical accord not only disregarded their fervent yearning for a cohesive, autonomous nation but also appeared to solidify British hegemony over Palestine. Consequently, the Palestinians endured a protracted era of subjugation that cast a long, oppressive shadow over their once-optimistic aspirations, leaving them feeling profoundly betrayed.

The Sykes-Picot Agreement, signed in 1916, failed to acknowledge the valid national aspirations of the Jewish population in Palestine, disregarding their profound historical ties to the land. This disregard set the stage for a protracted and arduous struggle for the Jewish community as they sought to lay the groundwork for the establishment of the State of Israel.

The enduring legacy of the Sykes-Picot Agreement continues to resonate in the region to this day. The hasty drawing of borders, neglecting the intricate tapestry of ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity, has served as a catalyst for ongoing discord and unease. This agreement's profound imprint on both the past and present underscores the far-reaching consequences of clandestine diplomatic resolutions.

This agreement provides valuable insights for all parties involved, serving as a stark reminder of the dire consequences that can result from negotiations carried out without the active participation and consent of those most impacted. Inclusive dialogue and respect for self-determination are fundamental components that should inform the resolution of intricate geopolitical matters, underlining the pressing need for enhanced transparency and cooperation to secure a fairer and more sustainable future, as exemplified by the lessons from the Sykes-Picot Agreement.

In conclusion, the Sykes-Picot Agreement is undeniably a significant and pivotal event in history, serving as a poignant and enduring reminder of the profound sense of betrayal deeply felt by both Palestinians and Israelis. Its resonating consequences persistently reverberate, exerting a continual and detrimental influence on the existing conflicts, further exacerbating and widening the long-standing divisions between the two nations. This tumultuous period has indelibly etched its mark on the collective memory, shaping and profoundly influencing the trajectory of events in the region.

Furthermore, the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which was a secret understanding between the United Kingdom and France, has led to heightened tensions in the region. Recent reports suggest that France and England are considering involvement in the ongoing conflict, especially following a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron to Israel and Palestine. Additionally, the Gaza region remains volatile, and Israeli authorities are still diligently addressing the security challenges posed by Hamas and its affiliates. The current developments persist in significantly impacting the intricate geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, consequently posing considerable risk to the supply and pricing of all fuel transported through the vital waterpassages in the region.

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Navigating Populist Backlash: “A Survival Guide for Central Bankers in a Topsy-Turvy World…

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Janet Yellen, during her second day of testimony at Capitol Hill vigorously defended the autonomy and policy-making potential of the United States' central bank. In response to Republican calls for the institution to abide by mechanistic rate-setting regulations, Yellen firmly rejected the notion. She cited her concern that such rules would restrict the Federal Reserve's discretion. Furthermore, she dismissed suggestions from some lawmakers that the central bank had become politicised.

FT, February, 2015

Illustrations by Germán & Co., protected by copyright.

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A few weeks ago, the Chilean newspaper "La Tercera" published an interview with Dr. Moisés Naím, titled "The infatuation with deceased ideas: Dr. Naím's insightful reflections sparked contemplation as he delved into the persistent impediment of archaic and futile political ideologies in Latin America. Political necrophilia in Latin America that vexes me". Dr. Naím's insightful reflections sparked contemplation as he delved into the persistent impediment of archaic and futile political ideologies in Latin America. Dr. Naím's insightful reflections sparked contemplation as he delved into the persistent impediment of archaic and futile political ideologies in Latin America. Political necrophilia, as explained by Dr. Naím, is a phenomenon in which political leaders and societies become obsessed with ideas that are no longer relevant or effective. His insightful observations serve as a wake-up call to the leaders of the region, urging them to abandon outdated ideas and embrace new and innovative approaches to address the challenges of the twenty-first century.

Sadly, the issue of ailing political systems isn't exclusive to Latin America; the entire world is facing the same dilemma. For instance, the failed coup attempts of Bolsonaro in Brazil and Trump in the United State, and the consummate coup d'état in Niger, led by the co-probe Abdoulaye Maiga, serve as glaring reminders.

Assigning responsibility, one might feel inclined to fault ourselves for electing these individuals under the illusion that they would work towards creating a fairer society. There are significant factors to consider: i) frequently, the candidates' agendas are predetermined by the —unseen authorities—, which reduces the electorate's capacity to influence the outcome. Consequently, we are left with no choice but to reluctantly cast our vote for the less unfavorable option. ii) It is important to be cautious of mandatory voting systems as they tend to foster abstentionism when people lose faith in the essential framework of the political establishment.

Mr. Javier Milei's depiction of the political elite as a "casta" is accurate, as they have transformed into contemporary monarchies. This is exemplified by the Chilean scenario, where specific surnames are now synonymous with positions of power in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. These individuals entered in the political sphere solely due to their familial connections thirty years ago, rather than any personal achievements. They have since come to symbolize the essence of the existing political system.

The important questions are: What do they do? And who benefits? They tirelessly toil for the benefit of a select few - the privileged minority who wield an insurmountable amount of power. Everything else is but a whimsical fairy tale. These issues require attention, but it is vital to steer clear of using an excessively aggressive approach reminiscent of a chainsaw. Latin America, having been scarred by traumatic incidents in its past, should utilize the remaining channels of democracy to call for the necessary and urgent changes.

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Now, back to the roll of Central Bank…

Central bank independence is pivotal to modern economic policymaking, carrying significant repercussions for economic stability and functioning. Allowing central banks to adjust interest rates and other policy instruments without political intervention grants monetary institutions the ability to effectively tackle inflationary pressures and maintain financial stability. Upholding the central bank's independence is crucial when considering the political —business cycle—. This is illustrated by politicians employing economic stimulus measures to boost their chances of re-election during campaign periods.

Although such measures can lead to unstable economic conditions and long-term inflationary pressures. While central bank independence is important, populist presidential candidates may use aggressive campaign language to remove the central bank for personal gain. The yearning for complete control over the national economy may be attractive to certain —privileged individuals—. However, it is ultimately an —unwise and hazardous— proposal. Eliminating a central bank is not only a complex undertaking with minimal chances of success in a typical political environment, but it also poses a substantial risk to the stability and operation of the economy.

Central banks play a crucial role in maintaining financial stability, requiring well-informed and unbiased decision-making for the benefit of the nation. The expertise and autonomy of central banks are pivotal in ensuring financial stability and preventing potential economic instability. The well-being of the country and the livelihoods of its citizens could be jeopardized without them. In summary, central bank independence is not only a theoretical concept but also a fundamental principle that underlies contemporary economic policymaking. It empowers central banks to combat inflationary pressures efficiently. While populist rhetoric advocating the abolition of central banks may be appealing to some, it is vital to recognize the potential risks involved and the crucial role that central banks play in maintaining economic stability and functionality.

In the editions of The Editorial Board of the Financial Times, on August 30, 2018, under the titled "How central bankers can survive populist attacks," the article explores the importance of rate-setters remaining calm and telling the unvarnished truth. However, it is essential to consider this problematic from another point of view as well. By delving deeper into the complexities of the situation, we can gain a more comprehensive understanding of how central bankers can navigate through the challenges posed by populist attacks without compromising their integrity. This approach allows for a more nuanced analysis that takes into account the intricate dynamics at play in today's political and economic landscape. By examining alternative strategies and considering the diverse array of perspectives, we can foster a more resilient and adaptive response to the growing threats faced by central bankers in the face of populist sentiment.

You can read the article here if you're interested in delving deeper into the subject matter.

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We are dedicated to providing our loyal readership with high-quality and precise information. We've invested numerous hours conducting rigorous research, obtaining necessary software licenses, and securing venues to share our valuable work. Our blog has demonstrated success in attracting readers who value our dedication to journalism. However, sustaining this excellent standard requires financial backing. That is why we are appealing to our esteemed readers to show solidarity and offer support. By contributing a minimum of 2 euros, you can help sustain our blog and guarantee that we continue to provide you with the most accurate and well-researched articles. We are immensely grateful for any support you can provide. Your assistance will not only cover our operational expenses but also aid us in acquiring new tools and resources to enhance the quality of our content. Every donation, regardless of the amount, greatly assists us in reaching our mission. Your support will enable us to maintain our independence and continue to provide you with the impartial journalism you depend on.

Yours sincerely,

The Team

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How central bankers can survive populist attacks

Rate-setters should remain calm and tell the unvarnished truth

FT, The editorial board, August 30, 2019 

Central bankers are under fire. Donald Trump has branded Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell an “enemy” for running US monetary policy too tight for the president’s liking. Some British MPs have attacked the governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney for perceived opposition to Brexit, while Urjit Patel, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, resigned last year after clashing with Narendra Modi’s government. Matteo Salvini, head of the Italian far-right League, has called for the Bank of Italy to be scrapped completely. Politics is hard for technocrats when their countries are divided, and partisans wish to sway them to one side.

Officials make convenient scapegoats for populist movements. While central bankers should avoid politics, they must be politically astute. To be effective they need to build support for their decisions, protect their legitimacy and be alive to public pressures.

For the Fed there is an added complication: the central bank must respond to the administration’s trade war with China and formulate policy to mitigate its effects on the US. Mr Powell referred to this, somewhat obliquely, last weekend, saying that trade policy was “the business of Congress and the administration, not that of the Fed”. Yet responding to any disruption risks encouraging Mr Trump, who wants to see lower rates and a weaker dollar. Bill Dudley, a former member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, suggested in a Bloomberg column this week that US officials should strike back. He said monetary officials could “state explicitly that the central bank won’t bail out an administration that keeps making bad choices on trade policy”.

He suggested the 2020 election outcome was within the central bank’s purview since a second Trump term would be a threat to the US economy, so rate setters should consider how their decisions might affect the result. This would be a mistake. There is no painless way to deal with Mr Trump, but the Fed should live with its discomfiture. It has two goals: to stabilise the economy and to preserve the independence of the institution. Neither is served by direct conflict with the president.

Central bankers are, ultimately, civil servants and should not use their control over interest rates to put pressure on elected politicians. Mr Dudley’s comments risk fuelling conspiracies about unelected officials pulling the strings from behind the scenes. Central bankers should instead remain calm, stick to their mandate, and tell the truth. Mr Powell is right to point out that monetary policy cannot offset the damage done by the trade war, which hits both the demand for goods and services and the capacity to provide them. Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, deftly handled controversy surrounding quantitative easing, responding forthrightly to criticism and pointing out the need for structural reform. It is right to expect central banks to explain their choices publicly and justify their policies. Politicians in turn have a legitimate role in scrutinising their decisions. Monetary policy affects the distribution of wealth and income. Central bankers wield huge power over markets and the fate of billions. Politicians’ rhetoric, however, can go too far. As well as labelling Mr Powell an enemy, Mr Trump has used the bully pulpit of Twitter to compare him to a golfer who cannot putt and to question his appointment. Such remarks intend to make the Fed support the president’s agenda. The best response is to ignore him. The central bank must do the best job it can in difficult circumstances. The American people will soon learn that not even the Fed can save the US from the follies of Mr Trump.

Inflation defeated the ultra-right candidate from the “Usher” family in the Argentine election…

Illustrations by Germán & Co., protected by copyright.

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The ubiquitous and egocentric condition of scarcity appears to have permeated every facet of our existence. The effects of this phenomenon extend far beyond material possessions. It not only affects the quantity of electricity used in our homes, the amount of milk poured into our cereal bowls, and the size of our meat portions, but also profoundly influences our fundamental human nature.

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Javier Milei, the audacious candidate who fearlessly sought the Argentine presidency, suffered a resounding defeat in the recent Sunday showdown. The loss underscored the prevailing tendency of people to gravitate towards the— tried and tested— when choosing their leaders. Despite Milei's magnetic charisma and unorthodox political approach, most voters opted for the more established candidates, perhaps driven by a sense of caution and a yearning for stability. This result is a stark reminder of the formidable obstacles faced by those who dare to challenge the status quo and advocate radical change. It also prompts us to reflect on the importance of tradition and the appeal of familiarity in the political sphere, and to ask whether they sometimes impede progress and prevent the emergence of novel and inventive concepts. Despite the well-knows inflation rates of a staggering 148% per annum, the Argentine public's fear of venturing into uncharted territory contributed significantly to this outcome. Argentina, famous for its cultural luminaries such as Borges, Cortazar, Evita, Francisco, Maradona, Menen, Messi, the mother of May Square and Peron, and many others bore witness to Milei's unlikely demise.

Milei is acknowledged for his firm support of a radical ideology that challenges established norms. Despite his undeniable impact, there remains an overwhelming sense of skepticism and concern surrounding his controversial views. One of Milei's most contentious stances revolves around advocating for the unrestricted trade of human organs. The concept mentioned above is widely acknowledged to be ethically problematic and fraught with moral dilemmas. Moreover, the individual in question advocates for abolishing the central bank, demonstrating an exceptionally radical stance. This proposition has profound implications for the broader economic structure.

Within Milei's theoretical framework, the prioritization of survival leads to the establishment of a societal structure in which power and wealth play a central role in determining an individual's privileged status. The lack of attention given to ethical considerations is a matter of concern, as it establishes an environment in which the principle of "might is right" or the law of the jungle becomes the dominant norm, devoid of any remorse.

This portrayal of prioritizing survival and power exhibits similarities with the character of Roderick Usher, the unethically compromised CEO of Fortunato Pharmaceuticals, portrayed in the disconcerting and choking Netflix series "The Fall of the House of Usher," finds himself entangled in a web of deceit and darkness that engulfs both his personal and professional life. As the story unravels, it becomes apparent that his seemingly successful pharmaceutical empire rests on a foundation built upon lies, manipulation, and the exploitation of vulnerable individuals seeking hope and healing. With each passing episode, the viewers are gripped by the unsettling realization that the true nature of this CEO's actions extends far beyond the confines of the series, exposing the dire consequences of unchecked greed and moral corruption within the cutthroat world of corporate power."

Both Milei and Usher demonstrate a perspective that stems from the current circumstances of our era, characterized by societal struggles with political fragmentation and economic crisis on a global scale. They exist within a societal framework marred by animosity and division. This framework serves as a concerning manifestation of the tumultuous nature of our present-day era. The statement compels us to acknowledge the somber reality that the quest for power and self-preservation frequently takes precedence over the values of empathy and compassion. The text provides a pessimistic depiction of a society that is predominantly motivated by ruthless competition, rather than fostering a sense of unity and cooperation.

Sergio Massa is a 51-year-old affiliated candidate of Kirchners, who is married and has two children. He is recognized for his pragmatic approach and extensive experience attained within the Peronism ranks, which has earned him public admiration. Massa proactively interacts with people, taking selfies and providing warm embraces and affectionate kisses to individuals who approach him. However, it is noteworthy that Massa is widely considered as responsible for the ongoing economic crisis in Argentina, a country that was once thriving and esteemed.

In the first round of the election, Milei was defeated by the legendary boxer Carlos Monzón who represented the working class in Argentina in these cases and won by a knockout. The libertarian candidate, renowned for his outspoken and confrontational style, easily succumbed to the well-organized logistics of Peronism. While the result may have taken some by surprise, it was not entirely unforeseen.

It is noteworthy that Milei has been meticulously moulded into a public figure, using incendiary language and radical concepts to appeal to a disillusioned and younger electorate. Milei's campaign encountered significant opposition from the firmly established and organized political and logistical apparatus of Peronism, which was swift to rally against him during pivotal times. Consequently, Milei's campaign failed, and he was totally defeated and scarred on Sunday.

Milei's strategy in the final round of elections, scheduled for November 19, is based on luring voters from the party of former President Mauricio Macri. Nonetheless, political science research indicates that this is not a straightforward arithmetic calculation. Additionally, it's important to note that Milei had previously declined to cooperate with his right-wing rival. Rather, he seems to be more open to the approaches of another powerful figure from the right, Mauricio Macri. Although Milei has previously condemned Macri and referred to him as a "criminal," the two have now "entered" into a constructive dialogue for political reasons.

The —chainsaw— candidate faces a month of unexpected events and uncertainty. Meanwhile, Massa must perform —miracles— to maintain the stability of the dollar's exchange rate and combat the feared inflation.

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We are dedicated to providing our loyal readership with high-quality and precise information. We've invested numerous hours conducting rigorous research, obtaining necessary software licenses, and securing venues to share our valuable work. Our blog has demonstrated success in attracting readers who value our dedication to journalism. However, sustaining this excellent standard requires financial backing. That is why we are appealing to our esteemed readers to show solidarity and offer support. By contributing a minimum of 2 euros, you can help sustain our blog and guarantee that we continue to provide you with the most accurate and well-researched articles. We are immensely grateful for any support you can provide. Your assistance will not only cover our operational expenses but also aid us in acquiring new tools and resources to enhance the quality of our content. Every donation, regardless of the amount, greatly assists us in reaching our mission. Your support will enable us to maintain our independence and continue to provide you with the impartial journalism you depend on.

Yours sincerely,

The Team

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Latin America's "political necrophilia" hinders its future...

Illustrations by Germán & Co., protected by copyright.

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By Germán & Co. in Karlstad, Sweden on September 24, 2023.

The Chilean newspaper "La Tercera" published an interview with Dr. Moisés Naím yesterday, titled "I am concerned about political necrophilia in Latin America, the love of dead ideas." Available in these editions.

Dr. Naím's sharp reflections, as usual, lead to points of reflection. He addresses a pressing issue in Latin America in this interview: the persistence of outdated and ineffective political ideologies. Political necrophilia, as defined by Dr. Naím, is a phenomenon in which political leaders and societies become obsessed with ideas that are no longer relevant or beneficial.

His astute observations serve as a wake-up call for Latin America's leaders or “castas”, urging them to abandon old ideas in favour of new and innovative approaches to addressing the challenges of the twenty-first century.

Two things in the text stand out to me. First, the word "necrophilia" was chosen not for its meaning, but because it reminded me of the renowned writer and poet Roberto Bolaños. Bolaños explores themes that delve into the human psyche and the depths of human desires in his captivating story titled "El Retorno" from the book "Putas Asesinas" - a topic that we will have the opportunity to explore further later.

“Moreover, shifting gears to the journalist's question regarding Chile prompts us to reflect upon the current state of the country and its government under the leadership of Gabriel Boric. It is intriguing to ponder the multifaceted aspects of Chile and how the government's policies and decisions shape its trajectory today. By delving into the intricate complexities of Chilean society and governance, we can better understand the prevailing dynamics shaping its current landscape. The exploration of such a topic paves the way for an enriching discourse on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for Chile and its people.

“When Boric came to power, I hoped he would have to form a coalition allowing Chile to recover its path of economic progress. Chile was the world champion in economic reforms, and it achieved this thanks to a fantastic alliance called the “Concertación”, which lasted many years, endured, and was very resilient.

“Do you think that can be achieved? I believe Chile can achieve it, but it will require a collective effort from all sectors of society to come together and prioritize the nation's economic well-being.

Dr. Naím's response reminded me of an interview he gave to the same media ten years ago (September 9, 2013) Professor James A. Robinson from Harvard University School of Government. In that enlightening conversation, the academic emeritus shared valuable insights into the root causes of Chile's economic disparity compared to North America.

“He pointed out that the impact of the military era on the economy has been overstated, reshaping the narrative around Chile's economic struggles.

“Professor Robinson, delved deeper, emphasizing that the true culprits behind Chile's relative poverty were the economic institutions that had systematically blocked opportunities for many people in Chilean society. This stark realization illuminated the need for comprehensive reforms and a departure from the military constitution that had hindered progress for far too long. The urgency to consign this outdated constitution to the dustbin of history has never been more critical.

As Chile looks towards its future under Boric's leadership, the nation must confront these deep-rooted economic challenges head-on. By fostering unity, embracing collaboration, and implementing meaningful reforms, Chile has the potential to reclaim its status as a global economic powerhouse. The journey towards economic progress may be arduous, but the prospect of achieving a brighter and more equitable future for all Chileans makes it a path well worth pursuing.

In this matters the study made by ECLAC titled "Chilean social stratification towards the end of the 20th century," by Arturo León and Javier Martínez in August 2001.

“The paper highlights the superimposed distributions of income and educational access, which persistently contribute to interclass inequalities and the potential resurgence of traditional conflicts over conflicting interests. These findings suggest that Chile has yet to witness the emergence of a truly egalitarian society that fosters new forms of social solidarity.

“Chile must confront these issues head-on and take decisive action to address the systemic obstacles that hinder the social mobility of its citizens. By prioritizing inclusive economic policies, investing in quality education, and nurturing a sense of social solidarity, Chile can begin to pave the way for a more equitable society. Only then can it hope to break free from the historical patterns of conflict and division and forge a path to a brighter and more prosperous future for all its people, according to ECLAC.

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When General Augusto Pinochet's heart danced to the rhythm of love for President Salvador Allende and Commander Fidel Castro, he whispered to Fidel in 1971, "Oh, mighty Castro, let our souls intertwine like the threads of revolution, for together we shall conquer the world with our fiery passion!"

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In the 50 years since 1973, something highly unusual and disturbing has occurred in the local media's treatment of this transcendental issue in Chilean history. The journalistic coverage of the disastrous coup d'état has been shamelessly prostituted and sensationalized to the point where, for many media outlets, it has devolved into a twisted showman like spectacle, with the central axis shifting inexplicably towards General Augusto Pinochet Ugarte's private life.

They have focused on peering into the darkest corners of his personal life, viciously unearthing every intimate detail, ranging from the outrages he committed to the mistreatment he suffered during his turbulent marriage with Doña Lucía Hiriart Rodríguez, a lady of rich ancestral heritage and distinguished lineage. This nauseating and disturbing obsession with public figures' private lives raises troubling questions about society's enduring fascination, or perhaps morbid curiosity, with the most intimate aspects of those in power.

General Augusto Pinochet Ugarte, despite his limited intellect and lack of financial means, needed a young woman of high birth to further his military objectives. It is critical to distinguish between lack of wisdom and outright stupidity, and the general did not fall into the latter category. Doña Lucia, on the other hand, became entangled in the general's plans, serving as nothing more than a side companion to an officer who happened to be in the right place at the right time, burdened by unfulfilled dreams and frustrated by her social position.

It is worth noting that General Pinochet, who eventually became the most powerful and feared man in the southern country, stumbled into the military academy by chance. After two failed attempts, he passed the entrance exam on his third try, a stroke of luck that came with a hint of divine intervention. Something from beyond seemed to guide his path, limiting his free will, whether by fate or design.

Nevertheless, it was not until Sunday, September 9, in the afternoon that General Pinochet decided to participate in the brewing coup d'état. Riddled with doubts and fears of falling into a trap, he succumbed to the immense pressure exerted by Mr. José Toribio Merino Castro, the Navy Admiral and influential figure within Chile's military ranks. In this sense, General Pinochet cannot be deemed solely responsible, nor can he be considered the mastermind or the strategist behind the prior planning of the tragic events unfolding on September 11.

This time, it was between General Augusto Pinochet Ugarte and the commander of the Cuban Revolution, Fidel Castro Ruz. Such friendships arising from unlikely circumstances never cease to fascinate observers.

Moreover, when discussing surprises, it would be remiss not to mention the captivating composition "Surprises Give You Life," a collaboration between talented artists Willy Colón from Puerto Rico and Rubén Blades from Panama. Born from the renowned 1928 musical drama 'The Threepenny Opera', this song, composed by Kurt Weill with lyrics by Berthold Brecht, continues to captivate audiences with its timeless allure.

In an unforeseen turn of events, General Pinochet, who enjoyed President Allende's confidence and shared a friendship with the revolutionary Fidel Castro Ruz, orchestrated an act of treason by joining the coup d'état on that fateful afternoon of Sunday, September 9, 1973. The path that led him to this moment was filled with twists of fate. Initially failing the military academy entrance exams not once but twice, he found himself unexpectedly admitted on his third and final attempt—an outcome seemingly guided by some mystical force. Akin to these twists, his marriage to Doña Lucía Hiriart Rodríguez played an instrumental role in his rise within the military hierarchy, owing to her father's influential position. Ultimately, Pinochet emerged by a disposition called —primus inter pares— as the leader of the coup's military junta, causing great misfortune for his father-in-law, a democratic politician who never quite forgave him. As always, life is a tapestry woven with unforeseen surprises.

Returning to the idea of Dr Moisés Naín about the game is stuck, it is important to reflect on the historical context of Chile. Fifty years ago, the country was deeply polarized, not only in two divergent poles but within themselves, fragmented with radical ideas that transformed into other entities of discord. All of this took place in a world known as the "Cold War," where divisions were not limited to national boundaries.

It is essential to understand that the armed forces and their allies did not solely orchestrate Allende's overthrow. More radical factions in the —Unidad Popular— also pushed the democratically elected government to the brink. The aftermath of this historical event still lingers, as Chile today finds itself even more atomized and intransigent than ever before.

In a world that is not divided in two but instead characterized by various divisions and conflicts, finding common ground, and reaching consensus becomes increasingly challenging. The Yalta agreements of 1945, which sought to create a post-war balance of power, now seem nothing short of a miracle in this political stage.

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Winston Churchill (left) with Franklin D Roosevelt (centre) and Josef Stalin with their advisers at the Yalta Agreement talks, February 1945. Photograph: PA News/The Guardian

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We are dedicated to providing our loyal readership with high-quality and precise information. We've invested numerous hours conducting rigorous research, obtaining necessary software licenses, and securing venues to share our valuable work. Our blog has demonstrated success in attracting readers who value our dedication to journalism. However, sustaining this excellent standard requires financial backing. That is why we are appealing to our esteemed readers to show solidarity and offer support. By contributing a minimum of 2 euros, you can help sustain our blog and guarantee that we continue to provide you with the most accurate and well-researched articles. We are immensely grateful for any support you can provide. Your assistance will not only cover our operational expenses but also aid us in acquiring new tools and resources to enhance the quality of our content. Every donation, regardless of the amount, greatly assists us in reaching our mission. Your support will enable us to maintain our independence and continue to provide you with the impartial journalism you depend on.

Yours sincerely,

The Team

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Source: Media/Editing by Germán & Co.
Updated: 09/24/2023

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Now we're back in Roberto Bolaños' world

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According to a New York Times article by Garth Risk Hallberg on February 16, 2021, Roberto Bolaños is described as reestablishing his legendary universe.

“The case of the Chilean genius Roberto Bolaño (1953-2003) seems even clearer. By his 40s, with his liver starting to fail, he was already mining his own archives to support his wife and children, beginning the work that continues long after his death. And why shouldn’t it? “The Savage Detectives” may have made Bolaño’s name, but his posthumous publications — from the galactic “2666” to the winsome “Spirit of Science Fiction” — have cemented his legend. He left behind a vault to rival Prince’s Paisley Park.

One of Bolaños most profound reflections on human existence is the following:

“Everything I have written is a love letter or a farewell to my generation, those of us born in the fifties and those of us who, at a particular moment, chose the practice of militia. In this case, it would be more correct to say militancy, and we gave what little we had, the most we had, which was our youth, to a cause that we believed to be the most generous of the world’s causes and in a way, it is, but it was not.

A final reflection on the unfortunate situation of Latin America compels us to be honest enough and recognize that it is not solely the fault of a few individuals but rather a collective responsibility that we all share. From various corners of society, whether consciously or unconsciously, we have each, in our way, contributed to this reality through acts of pettiness, the imposition of obstacles, and the setting of traps that ultimately undermine the common well-being. As we solemnly reflect on our present circumstances, it would be wise to heed the timeless words of Plato, who eloquently reminds us of the importance of sacrificing our own interests for the pursuit of the common good.

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Economist and writer Moises Naim speaks at the Second International Industry Conference at Casa Piedra. Photo by Juan Farías.

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The "political necrophilia" in Latin America, which refers to the “love” of outdated ideas.

La Tercera, by Juan Paulo Iglesias, September 23, 2023

The Venezuelan writer and analyst recently visited Chile at the invitation of La Otra Mirada and believes that the current political moment in the region is best described as a deadlocked game. "Everyone possesses adequate capacity to hinder the game, yet no one has the means to unblock it," he asserts. According to him, the countries capable of fostering alliances between rivals will prosper. "Chile has the potential to achieve this; it is the best-placed nation in Latin America," he says.

The End of Power was followed by The Revenge of the Powerful. Over the last decade, Moisés Naím has been among the most insightful commentators on the swift political transformations happening in the world today. He has alerted us to the new logic that underpins contemporary society and the dangers it poses.

He believes that a statement made by José Ortega y Gasset in the 1930s has never been more relevant. "The Spanish philosopher had stated, "We are uncertain of what is happening to us," just before the crisis that affected Europe. According to Naím, this statement resonates deeply with the current situation where an impending event looms large, and its impact is yet unknown.

In La revancha de los poderosos, the author highlights the danger of the 3Ps: populism, post-truth, and polarization." Since the book was published in 2022, has the threat worsened?

I will share a personal anecdote. The book received positive reviews in multiple countries, and I was interviewed in Indonesia, Malaysia, Central Europe, and the Middle East. During these meetings, I was often asked why I had not mentioned that their respective countries had inspired the 3P model. In essence, they all felt that I was discussing their nations. Since the book was published in 2022, has the threat worsened? However, it is important to note that the 3Ps have a global scope. The book "The Three Ps" by Moisés Naím helps to understand what is happening in these countries, and this is widely recognised. Consider the following revised text: Israel, as a leading democracy in the Middle East, is currently facing significant pressure.

Additionally, other countries such as Spain, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, and Colombia are also experiencing similar pressures.

“In an interview with El País newspaper, Naím stated that democracy has been destroyed without our realisation. This raises questions on whether democracy is truly at risk.

Yes, there is a direct attack on the factors that define what a democracy is: the division of powers, the independence of the media, and freedom of speech, all of which are under attack. In addition, you have a new breed of leaders who are autocratic but who somehow make institutional contortions and adopt alternative narratives to appear more democratic. They are autocrats trying to show themselves to the world as democrats. In addition, since the book was published, we have seen unprecedented climate change events. It is nature enraged. Moreover, as if that were not enough, things like artificial intelligence appear, which not only came to change the world but is going to change it and is changing it at an incredible speed. All of this threatens democracy.

In The End of Power, you warned about the effect social networks and the internet had on society, but AI is a kind of upgrade, a step forward. What risks do you see in this phenomenon for democracy?

This goes far beyond social media. This changes everything. Artificial intelligence, climate change, what is happening between the great powers, and social conflict, and added to the attacks on democracy, give you a precarious situation. Artificial intelligence is the fastest-adapting technology in history. Innovation has yet to be adopted by many people as fast as artificial intelligence.

What do you think will be the consequence of that change?

Living in a confused society, which does not know who to believe, what to believe, what is true, what is a set-up. It will present unprecedented challenges. However, that same technology will produce mechanisms to better deal with this uncertainty about what or who to believe. The same technology is going to give us tools to protect ourselves.

Do you think democracy can adapt to these changes?

All institutions need to catch up in the need to adapt and respond effectively to the technological changes and changes in the environment. We are talking about the Vatican, and we are talking about the Pentagon; we're talking about JPMorgan, and we are talking about a company in India; We are talking about culture, theatre or cinema, television, poetry, literature and war, kidnappings and evils. All of that is in the pot.

Amid this scenario, controversial political leaders emerge. It was the case of Donald Trump in the United States and Javier Milei in Argentina. How do you see Milei? Does it fall within the logic of the 3P?

I am very impressed by how difficult it will be for him to govern if he wins. He has made promises and is based on electoral offers that are almost suicidal and irrelevant because he will not be able to realize them. That the Central Bank is going to close, nobody believes that. Furthermore, it will have immediate, negative consequences if it does. Total dollarization of the economy in a different way than has been tested in other countries, too. He has a long list of things that he has promised, and he will not be able to deliver, so he will be forced to make alliances with other parties and then have to negotiate.

You say that what the leaders of the 3Ps do is destroy democracy from within. Do you see that risk with Milei in Argentina or with other leaders in the region?

In Milei's case, we do not know; we do know that the concentration of power tends to make institutions more authoritarian. I do not think even he knows. He does not know what the limits of what he can do are. He will try to do it all and then figure out what part of that whole is viable, and it will have consequences. However, in addition to Milei, the other character that is fashionable in Latin America is Bukele, who has a popularity rating of the highest in the world and has managed to make it possible for people to go out on the streets in El Salvador without being killed, raped or robbed. But there is a risk to democracy, a human rights issue that is being violated. That is not a stable or sustainable situation, but what you have to take care of with Bukele or what he has to take care of is his relationship with human rights; he must be the primary protector of human rights. 

Can Bukele become a model for his strategy to be replicated in Latin America, considering the crime problems that affect the region?

To achieve this, he has to resolve the contradiction between how he faces problems and that this is done in a democratic regime. There is a contradiction in how he and a Democrat should act. Let us not forget that Bukele was the one who entered his country's Congress, surrounded by soldiers and police officers when the deputies were discussing a law. Then he corrected himself and backed down, but that is his propensity.

"There is a problem of very important leaders in the world and in Latin America, and there is also a problem of followers. It's very serious the problem we have with supporters, how vulnerable they are to being manipulated, how uninformed they are."

Moisés Naím

Do you think that these figures appear because democracy is not able to respond to citizen demands due to a failure in democratic systems?

I do not believe that. A worldwide trend called anti-politics gives people the luxury of saying and despising politics and politicians. It is the idea that all politicians are wrong, they are all thieves, they are all corrupt, they never do anything, nothing works, nothing, it works, etcetera, etcetera. So you see a reaction to the government's performance, and we see that on the right and the left, in the north and the south. Governments need to be fixed, among other reasons, because the realities they have to function are accelerating at a speed governments cannot respond to. When you say it is democracy that's not giving you what people expect, that is right, but if it is not democracy, it is authoritarianism. This is not only about the regime, which also plays a role; this has to do with governments that do not work and people fed up with promises and offers that are not fulfilled. People are fed up with the poor performance, ineptitude and mediocrity we find among our leaders. There is a problem of critical leaders in the world and Latin America, and there is also a problem of followers. Our problem with the followers is severe: how vulnerable they are to being manipulated, how uninformed they are, how little interested they are in better understanding why they are voting and for whom, and how fragile their point of view is.

Is there a danger that, eventually, authoritarianism will end up attracting some people who prefer it to democracy?

Absolutely. There are all the fascist regimes. Let us not forget that Hitler started democratically, won an election and then did everything he did to concentrate power. We are seeing that elsewhere. The idea that you win an election and then from within undermine democracy and weaken it is seen in many places.

But a part of the population is willing to do that.

That is because they do not know it; what they do know is that democracy is not working for them. So, well, come on, something else. That has produced two things in the world: a proliferation of elections and new faces. There is a huge appetite for new faces, and that has to do with anti-politics. I do not want more people who have been in power or close to power. That they all leave is the mantra of that way of seeing the world. Milei is the latest example of this, but we had Hugo Chavez, who also arrived as a new face before that. We had Pedro Castillo in Peru, that is, new faces who produce inexperienced people, people who are not prepared and who are there only because of the feeling of revenge that guides voters, who feel that they have been systematically deceived.

Speaking of Chile, how do you see the country and the government of Gabriel Boric today?

When Boric came to power, I had the hope that he would have to make a coalition that would allow Chile to recover its path of economic progress. Chile was the world champion in economic reforms, and it achieved that thanks to a fantastic alliance called the Concertación, which lasted many years and was very resilient. That is why I hope Chile will return to the path of economic reforms. And hopefully, there will be an effort to create political and institutional reforms that deepen democracy and make it more effective.

Can that be achieved?

Chile can achieve it, but there must be a national agreement. There has to be a grand alliance that includes the entire political spectrum. There is something I am seeing in other parts of the world that has led me to the conclusion that in the twenty-first century, only countries capable of governing and creating permanent, stable and deep alliances between rivals are the countries that will prosper. The rest will remain stagnant or in decline. We have to get to the coalition of those who do not feel comfortable among themselves, and it is the only way. All parties have to make concessions. Chile has the potential to achieve this. In Latin America, it is the one that is better placed.

What risks do you see today in Latin America?

I worry about political necrophilia, which comes along with everyone leaving. Necrophilia is the attraction of some human beings to corpses, and there is a political variant that I call political necrophilia, which is the love of dead ideas, of policies that have been tried here and elsewhere, over and over again and always end badly. Latin America has a lot of that. However, beyond that, the most accurate scenario to define Latin America today is that of the blocked game. In all countries, the political game needs to be recovered. Everyone has enough power to block the game, but no one has the power to enforce the game. That is happening everywhere. The blocked game is the scenario that best describes Latin America today.

And how do you unblock that game?

With alliances, unfriendly alliances. Colombians say that is called swallowing toads; you have to swallow that toad. But you need more willingness to do that in politics in Colombia and the world. Countries that can find a way for people who are in opposing groups to identify things they can work on together will do well.

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The castle of iron and solidarity that has supported Ukraine is eroding and being washed away by the sea…

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Artwork by Germán & Co. Protected by copyright.

In a recent statement, President Joe Biden articulated his apprehension over the escalating crisis in Ukraine. He highlighted the crucial need to continue backing Ukraine, pointing out that if it falls, the world stands to suffer dire consequences, but…

From  Karlstad, Sweden, Germán & Co, September 21, 2023

Alarming developments have underscored a troublesome departure from the previous patterns of backing and sympathy towards Ukraine. For years, Poland, Estonia, Slovakia, and other Central and Eastern European nations have been reliable allies, firmly committed to offering military aid and shelter to Ukrainian refugees.

Moreover, these nations have played an indispensable role in promoting Ukraine's cause on the global platform. Significant players such as France and Germany have displayed moments of hesitancy and indecisiveness, resulting in noticeable cracks appearing in the previously impenetrable fortress of support, which was constructed with great attention to detail.

This disintegration of solidarity between nations reflects the fragility of the global economy and stability, portraying a pessimistic and uncertain future for Ukraine and the world. The implications of this collapse suggest a troubling and precarious future, defined by significant ambiguity and susceptibility for both Ukraine and the global community.

However, as some of these leaders now confront crucial re-election battles or grapple with domestic challenges, and as governments consider the potential consequences of a Ukrainian EU membership, their steadfast support begins to waver. The complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape reminds us of the fragile nature of alliances and the impact of individual political circumstances on foreign policy decisions.

The leaders of Central and Eastern European countries- Poland, Estonia, Slovakia, among others, have been unwavering in their efforts to support Ukraine's cause, firmly denouncing Russia's invasion and providing invaluable assistance. They have taken part in diplomatic efforts, advocating for international sanctions against Russia and urging for a united front in response to the aggression. These nations have been consistent allies, showcasing their resolute dedication to Ukraine's sovereignty and security.

Nevertheless, the upcoming re-election battles and domestic obstacles some of these leaders encounter bring about a new element of doubt to their commitment. As politicians navigate the complexities of their respective landscapes, they must consider the potential consequences of Ukraine's future EU membership. This adds a new layer of complexity to their unwavering support for the country.

Moreover, the geopolitical landscape is always changing, with world powers and alliances constantly reassessing their positions. The intricacies of alliances become apparent when subjective political circumstances significantly impact foreign policy decisions. In weighing their political futures and navigating complex dynamics within their countries, leaders may subject their commitment to Ukraine's cause to the mercurial tides of politics.

It is imperative to acknowledge that the unsteady support from these countries should not detract from the meaningful contributions they have made thus far. Their steadfast support, provision of aid, and integration of Ukrainian refugees into their communities have played a critical role in Ukraine's struggle for sovereignty. Nevertheless, it is important to recognise the multilayered nature of foreign policy choices and the potential impact of unique circumstances on international alliances.

In a world where allegiances and friendships can change with the political climate, Ukraine's situation serves as a reminder of the intricacies of global diplomacy. As these Central-European nations navigate shifting political landscapes, their continued support for Ukraine remains invaluable.

In a constantly shifting geopolitical landscape, Ukraine's situation serves as a poignant reminder of the intricacies of international relations. As Central and Eastern European nations manoeuvre through their governmental landscapes and weigh the possible outcomes of Ukraine's prospective membership in the EU, their steadfast support may encounter obstacles. Foreign policy decisions are shaped by various factors, including domestic circumstances and the ever-changing geopolitical landscape.

We are likely to come across this photograph again as a memory. What if there were more actors now? Perhaps this is due to POLITICO EU's prominent article titled “Europe blinks amid calls to stop backing Ukraine." (Article available in this edition). The reality is on Kyiv’s eastern front, where its hawkish allies appear to be wavering. Nevertheless, Kyiv's problem is not only Poland, where support seems to be slipping.

Winston Churchill (left) with Franklin D Roosevelt (centre) and Josef Stalin with their advisers at the Yalta Agreement talks, February 1945. Photograph: PA News/The Guardian

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We are dedicated to providing our loyal readership with high-quality and precise information. We've invested numerous hours conducting rigorous research, obtaining necessary software licenses, and securing venues to share our valuable work. Our blog has demonstrated success in attracting readers who value our dedication to journalism. However, sustaining this excellent standard requires financial backing. That is why we are appealing to our esteemed readers to show solidarity and offer support. By contributing a minimum of 2 euros, you can help sustain our blog and guarantee that we continue to provide you with the most accurate and well-researched articles. We are immensely grateful for any support you can provide. Your assistance will not only cover our operational expenses but also aid us in acquiring new tools and resources to enhance the quality of our content. Every donation, regardless of the amount, greatly assists us in reaching our mission. Your support will enable us to maintain our independence and continue to provide you with the impartial journalism you depend on.

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Europe blinks amid calls to stop backing Ukraine 

“On its other eastern front, Kyiv’s hawkish allies are going wobbly.

The problem for Kyiv is that it's not just Poland where support seems to be slipping | Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images

POLITICO EU BY NICHOLAS VINOCUR AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI, SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

BRUSSELS — Russian President Vladimir Putin has made little secret of his plan to keep up the pressure on Ukraine until Western resolve breaks. More than 500 days into his war of aggression, he now has reason to believe things are working out the way he hoped, even if events are not playing out how he might have imagined.

Governments in Poland, Estonia, Slovakia and others in Central and Eastern Europe have been among Kyiv’s staunchest allies since the first day of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Beyond sending weapons and welcoming millions of Ukrainian refugees, they have been Ukraine’s loudest advocates in the West, pushing for a tough line against Moscow in the face of reluctance from countries like France and Germany.

But as the leaders of some of these ride-or-die allies face reelection battles or other domestic challenges, and governments get nervous about the impact of Ukraine one day joining the European Union, that support is starting to waver.

The most striking example is Poland, whose Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced on Wednesday that he would stop delivering new weapons to Ukraine. The statement marked a stunning escalation in a dispute between Kyiv and its closest EU neighbor over grain shipments Warsaw claims are undercutting production from Polish farmers ahead of a parliamentary election on October 15.

“Ukraine realizes that in the last months, they’re not bordering Poland, they’re bordering Polish elections,” said Ivan Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria. So for now, “the votes of a hundred thousand Polish farmers are more important for the government than what is going to be the cost for Ukraine. And we’re going to see this happening in many places,” he added.

Morawiecki is facing a tough challenge from Donald Tusk, a former prime minister who has also served as president of the European Council. As part of his electoral strategy, the prime minister is courting supporters of the far-right Confederation Party, which opposes aid for Ukraine.

“We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons,” Morawiecki said in an appearance on Polish television channel Polsat.

While it’s tempting to write off the tensions as electoral fireworks, there are reasons to believe they could persist beyond the campaign. As a Western diplomat who asked not to be named pointed out, the grain dispute between Warsaw and Kyiv reveals deeper misgivings about Ukraine joining the EU. “For 18 months, Poland has badgered any member state that would utter the slightest hesitation towards Ukraine,” the diplomat said. “Now they’re showing their true colors.”

The problem for Kyiv is that it’s not just Poland where support seems to be slipping. Since the start of the war, the Baltic states have led the pro-Ukraine charge in Brussels and Washington, perhaps nobody as loudly or effectively as Estonia’s liberal prime minister, Kaja Kallas.

As the daughter of a former prime minister and European commissioner, Kallas was widely seen as the emblem of a newly emboldened Eastern Europe that would ride the Ukraine crisis to positions of greater power in Brussels. But Kallas’ credibility took a hit over a scandal involving her husband, who was revealed to own a stake in a company that kept doing business in Russia after the February 2022 invasion, even as his wife was advocating for ending all trade with Moscow.

Asked about Kallas’ troubles, Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said that no amount of political upheaval would change the country’s course: “We constantly have elections, and we constantly have domestic issues, but it doesn’t change our policy,” Tsahkna said. “One thing Estonia has had in all these 32 years is the same continuous foreign policy.”

That said, Kallas has been a lot less vocal since the scandal broke in late August, depriving Kyiv of one of its strongest advocates in Western capitals.

Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki announced on Wednesday that he would stop delivering new weapons to Ukraine | Omar Marques/Getty Images

Then there’s Slovakia. The Central European country has been among Europe’s biggest backers of Ukraine, but elections on September 30 could turn it into a skeptic overnight.

“If you have a society where only 40 percent support arms delivery to Ukraine and your government offers support almost at the level of the Baltics, that creates a backlash,” said Milan Nič, a fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Robert Fico, the country’s populist former prime minister, is campaigning on a pro-Russian, anti-American platform that opposes sanctions against Russian individuals and further arms deliveries to Kyiv. He’s on course to win the election, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

A victory for Fico would give Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — one of Kyiv’s biggest European skeptics — an ally on the EU stage. If his party gets enough support to be part of the government, Fico told the Associated Press earlier this month, “we won’t send any arms or ammunition to Ukraine anymore.”

To be sure, Ukraine still has plenty of strong backers in Europe. Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Sweden, Finland and others remain strongly committed, and French President Emmanuel Macron has recently swung strongly behind Kyiv. Some analysts also downplay the importance of Poland and Slovakia’s role at the moment, pointing out that there aren’t many weapons left to deliver in the countries’ armories.

Kyiv, for now, seems relaxed. Speaking at a press conference after an event in Brussels last Friday, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna downplayed the static between Kyiv and some of its erstwhile friends: “We have a strong commitment and a political confirmation that none of the political processes will affect the ongoing support,” she said.

It’s hard to imagine, however, that somewhere Putin isn’t rubbing his hands, and watching.

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Austria: neutral for how much longer? Like neutral peers such as Sweden ‒ whose leader, the social democrat Olof Palme

Artwork by Germán & Co. Protected by copyright.

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We are dedicated to providing our loyal readership with high-quality and precise information. We've invested numerous hours conducting rigorous research, obtaining necessary software licenses, and securing venues to share our valuable work. Our blog has demonstrated success in attracting readers who value our dedication to journalism. However, sustaining this excellent standard requires financial backing. That is why we are appealing to our esteemed readers to show solidarity and offer support. By contributing a minimum of 2 euros, you can help sustain our blog and guarantee that we continue to provide you with the most accurate and well-researched articles. We are immensely grateful for any support you can provide. Your assistance will not only cover our operational expenses but also aid us in acquiring new tools and resources to enhance the quality of our content. Every donation, regardless of the amount, greatly assists us in reaching our mission. Your support will enable us to maintain our independence and continue to provide you with the impartial journalism you depend on.

Yours sincerely,

The Team

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Austria embraced ‘permanent neutrality’ in 1955 as a condition of Allied troop withdrawals, enabling it to play an outsized role in international affairs. Now, Austrian neutrality is being put to the test.

Le Monde Diplomatique by Fabian Scheidler

When Russia invaded Ukraine, heated controversy broke out in Austria over its neutrality. In May 2022 around 40 military, economic and literary figures, including the influential novelist Robert Menasse, published an open letter calling for a ‘serious, nationwide discussion’ (1). Russia’s aggression, the signatories wrote, made remaining neutral ‘not only unsustainable, but dangerous’. They didn’t suggest that Austria follow Finland and Sweden into NATO but they didn’t rule it out either.

Since then, local mainstream media have fuelled the ongoing debate over Austrian foreign policy. What lies ahead? Should the country supply weapons to Ukraine, allow the transit of military equipment, train Ukrainian soldiers or join demining operations? Is Vienna’s neutrality, a cornerstone of its international posture since 1955, on shaky ground?

Statements from the four major parties of the National Council (the lower house of parliament) ‒ the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ), the Greens and the far-right national conservative Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) ‒ suggest that neutrality still has a rosy future. After Russia rolled into Ukraine, Chancellor Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) declared, ‘Austria was neutral, Austria is neutral, and Austria will also remain neutral. As far as I’m concerned, the discussion ends there’ (2). Apart from the liberals of the New Austria and Liberal Forum (NEOS), parliament’s smallest party, no one openly questions the status quo. And polls suggest that the usual 70-80% of the population supports it.

In May 2022 around 40 leading figures, including novelist Robert Menasse, published an open letter calling for a ‘serious, nationwide discussion’. Russia’s aggression, the signatories wrote, made remaining neutral ‘not only unsustainable, but dangerous’

Behind the façade of a steadfast principle, the concept of neutrality has evolved. Like Germany, Austria was divided into four occupied zones after the second world war. It dodged partition (the fate of its larger neighbour) by hammering out a deal with the Soviet Union in spring 1955, which guaranteed the country full sovereignty in exchange for a promise of ‘permanent neutrality’. Called the Moscow Memorandum, the pledge was a prerequisite for a state treaty brokered with the Soviet Union, US, UK and France that codified the country’s independence (3). Parliament passed the Constitutional Law on the Neutrality of Austria that October, and the Allied troops withdrew.

More than just military alliances

Germany could have taken a similar path. In 1952 Stalin proposed that the Western powers trade reunification for a commitment to remain neutral. The offer was seriously considered by some leaders of the Christian Democratic Union (the CDU, which governed the Federal Republic at the time), including Jakob Kaiser, then minister of All-German Affairs. But Chancellor Konrad Adenauer and the US both resisted. West Germany joined NATO the same year that Austria pledged its permanent neutrality.

The era’s debates over neutrality went beyond military alliances; in both Austria and Germany they touched on economic policy as well. The CDU’s leftist faction took the middle road between Anglo-Saxon capitalism and a Soviet-style planned economy: its 1947 Ahlen Programme called for nationalising key sectors under the banner of ‘socialism through Christian responsibility’. Adenauer and the Allied Powers worked to muzzle supporters so as to keep West Germany’s major businesses in private hands ‒ especially in those of Nazi collaborators and profiteers like the Quandt (BMW), Porsche-Piëch (Volkswagen) and Flick families (4).

Austria’s story could not be more different. Two major ‘nationalisation acts’ socialised banks, essential industries and the energy sector in 1946-47; cooperative and public ownership have stayed more central than in Germany, and to this day, nearly half of Vienna’s apartments belong to cooperatives or public institutions, versus just a quarter in Berlin.

The widely celebrated embrace of neutrality became a pillar of Austria’s identity, and remains associated with one figure: Bruno Kreisky who served as undersecretary of state (1953-59), foreign minister (1959-66) and chancellor (1970-83). A Social Democrat, Kreisky forged a technique later called ‘active’ or ‘engaged’ neutrality (5), visiting Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary in the 1960s ‒ a first for a Western foreign minister. In so doing, he paved the way for Germany’s policy of détente, soon implemented by that country’s chancellor Willy Brandt (1969-74), a close friend of Kreisky’s from their shared exile in Sweden during the second world war.

Kreisky was also instrumental in arranging the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE), held between July 1973 and August 1975 in Helsinki and Geneva, as well as in writing the Helsinki Declaration (signed 1 August 1975); the conference and declaration both shaped the détente’s institutional framework. When the CSCE became the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 1995, it set up shop in Vienna, already home to numerous United Nations agencies that Kreisky had helped bring to Austria. Being a diplomatic hub offers Austria not only international kudos but also a sort of ‘negative security assurance’ (a commitment by nuclear-armed states not to carry out a strike on a non-nuclear state).

Support for the non-aligned

The worldly Austrian chancellor took a hands-on approach in the rapprochement between Israel’s government and Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which culminated in the 1993-95 Oslo accords. Like neutral peers such as Sweden ‒ whose leader, the social democrat Olof Palme, was another of Kreisky’s friends ‒ Austria stayed close with the non-aligned movement (see Trying to remake the world, in this issue) and supported its call for a new international economic order. In short, this middle-sized country has played an outsized role in international affairs.

As the Greens, founded in 1986, would later do, the SPÖ (led by Kreisky 1967-83) refused to join the European Economic Community (EEC) for both economic and foreign policy reasons. But Chancellor Franz Vranitzky, another Social Democrat, applied for membership in 1989. In its opinion on Austria’s application, published in July 1991, the European Commission lamented ‘rigidities’, ‘definite tendencies towards corporatism’ and the public sector’s ‘relatively low’ productivity, all of which would ‘threaten the [country’s] competitiveness’. It also deemed Austria’s neutrality a ‘specific problem’.

After Austria joined the EU (1995), the government largely laid these reservations to rest: it launched a massive privatisation plan in the 1990s and 2000s and complied with the EU’s structural adjustment programme, sacrificing its relative economic independence in the process.

Furthermore, despite its neutral stance, Vienna committed to full and active participation in the EU’s common foreign and security policy (CFSP). Although the ‘Irish clause’ of the Treaty on European Union states that the European defence policy ‘shall not prejudice the specific character of [that] of certain Member States’, in practice Austria joined the EU’s combat groups as well as the European Peace Facility, a fund widely criticised for exporting weapons to troubled areas. In 1990 the country’s authorities even unilaterally declared several articles of the Austrian State Treaty obsolete in order to legitimise participation in EU military structures; the Soviet Union cried foul, but Western powers kept mum.

The debate over the foreign policy framework came back with a vengeance with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Various interpretations of the neutrality principle coexist within the ÖVP-Green government. For instance, defence minister Klaudia Tanner (ÖVP, conservative) opposes helping Ukrainian demining operations, while federal president Alexander Van der Bellen, former Green Party member and armed forces commander-in-chief, openly supports it. All parties currently in the government do see eye to eye on one objective: the massive rearmament of the Austrian armed forces, whose budget is to double by 2025.

Europe as an ‘armed peace project’

Outside of the main parties, discussions go even further. Economic lobbyist Günther Fehlinger leads a small minority demanding that Austria join NATO, a campaign that isn’t gaining much popular or political traction. Other neutrality opponents call for shoring up European defence systems and increasing Austrian involvement in them. Robert Menasse, for example, told me he would like to see a sovereign Europe as an ‘armed peace project’ prepared for self-defence – but for this to be possible, the ‘myth of Austrian neutrality’ would have to be dispelled. Menasse opposes Austrian participation in NATO because it could drag the country into conflicts between superpowers. His goal is quite the opposite: to outgrow dependence on the US.

For neutrality supporters ‒ like Gerald Oberansmayr, of Solidar-Werkstatt Österreich (Solidarity Workshop), a Linz-based pacifist organisation ‒ further integration with an increasingly militarised Europe that could behave like an imperial and neocolonial power is not the answer.

University of Vienna political scientist Heinz Gärtner also leans towards a diplomatically sovereign Europe. An advocate for returning to engaged neutrality, in March 2014 he had proposed an Austria-like neutral status for Ukraine, to avoid an impending war; not long after, Henry Kissinger suggested the same. This stance, which then foreign minister Sebastian Kurz made government policy in 2014, was soon abandoned ‒ under NATO pressure, Gärtner thinks.

The golden age of engaged neutrality has clearly passed. Granted, Austria played a major role in establishing UN’s Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) during the 2010s, against NATO’s wishes. But on most other issues the country has kept in step with EU and NATO positions. The Ukrainian government’s March 2022 offer of a ceasefire agreement, which would have entailed giving up its application for NATO membership, did not get active support in Vienna. And Austria did not engage with efforts from Turkey, Israel, Brazil, India and several African countries to end the fighting.

And yet rising tensions between the West, on one hand, and Russia and China, on the other, plus the threat of a nuclear face-off mean that European countries appear both independent and trustworthy to their non-aligned Southern counterparts. As Heinz Gärtner points out, ‘thinking in terms of blocs has always blocked thinking.’ Rather than ramping up a new arms race – be it within the Atlantic framework or the European one – he suggests investing in institutions, along the lines of the OSCE, that can bridge blocs.

Austria was once an expert at such bridgebuilding. Now it’s more focused on walking the fine line between formal neutrality and integration into Western military bodies. Last June Chancellor Nehammer announced that his country would participate in Sky Shield, the air defence project developed by European NATO members. This, while celebrating neutrality almost in the same breath.

Of breasts and tits…

Illustration by Germán & Co.

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From Goya to Fellini: The Importance of Breast…

Breast, a symbol of femininity and nurturance, has been a subject of fascination and significance in various artistic expressions throughout history. From Francisco Goya's evocative portraits to Federico Fellini's enchanting films, the depiction and exploration of the breast have transcended mere physicality, capturing the cultural nuances and societal dynamics surrounding this iconic feature. Goya, a celebrated Spanish painter from the late 18th century, prominently featured the breast in his works. Through his keen observation and masterful execution, Goya portrayed the female form with remarkable delicacy and sensuality. In paintings such as "La Maja Desnuda" and "La Maja Vestida," he celebrated the natural beauty of the female body, including the soft curves of the breast. Goya's art challenged the prevailing norms and expectations of his time, and his emphasis on the breast undoubtedly played a significant role in his bold and provocative style. Moving forward to the mid-20th century, Federico Fellini, an Italian filmmaker and visionary, continued to explore the complexities of the breast on the silver screen. In films like "Amarco” Fellini employed his unique cinematic language to navigate the themes of desire, pleasure, and vulnerability. Through artistic endeavors, artists like Goya and Fellini have challenged cultural norms, shattered taboos, and provoked thought about the perception and treatment of women.

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We are dedicated to providing our loyal readership with high-quality and precise information. We've invested numerous hours conducting rigorous research, obtaining necessary software licenses, and securing venues to share our valuable work. Our blog has demonstrated success in attracting readers who value our dedication to journalism. However, sustaining this excellent standard requires financial backing. That is why we are appealing to our esteemed readers to show solidarity and offer support. By contributing a minimum of 2 euros, you can help sustain our blog and guarantee that we continue to provide you with the most accurate and well-researched articles. We are immensely grateful for any support you can provide. Your assistance will not only cover our operational expenses but also aid us in acquiring new tools and resources to enhance the quality of our content. Every donation, regardless of the amount, greatly assists us in reaching our mission. Your support will enable us to maintain our independence and continue to provide you with the impartial journalism you depend on.

Yours sincerely,

The Team

---

Iconic Breasts: A Look Back

In today's world, the significance of the breast remains relevant and multifaceted. It stands as a symbol, an icon, and a mirror reflecting the ever-evolving concept of femininity and its place in society. Artists and creators continue to explore this theme in various mediums, using it as a tool to question societal norms, address taboos, and challenge cultural perceptions.

The contrast between the covered female breasts in Western society and their association with eroticism poses a thought-provoking question. It is an intriguing phenomenon that begs us to delve into the motives behind this cultural norm. Equally captivating is the growing movement advocating for the desexualisation of breasts. These contrasting perspectives shed light on the complex interplay between societal norms, gender, and sexuality.

Western society's covering of female breasts can be traced back to historical, cultural, and religious factors. Historically, societies have imposed various dress codes that reflect their values and beliefs. The sexualisation of female breasts might stem from the instinctual desire to control and limit the female expression of sexuality, which has often been deemed threatening or taboo by patriarchal social structures.

However, it is essential to note that the eroticisation of female breasts is not universal. Different societies have diverse attitudes towards breast exposure, highlighting the cultural relativity in determining what is considered sensual or obscene. In many indigenous cultures, for example, nudity or the partial exposure of breasts is often normalised and not necessarily regarded as erotic. This highlights the arbitrary nature of associating eroticism solely with the display of female breasts.

The motives behind those who challenge the sexualisation of female breasts are equally compelling. Desexualisation advocates argue that by normalising the exposure of female breasts, society can combat the objectification and commodification of women's bodies. This movement seeks to create a more inclusive and equal society by challenging deeply ingrained norms surrounding female sexuality.

But, this topic is not without controversy. Critics argue that desexualising female breasts may undermine individual autonomy and choice. They fear that removing the erotic context could flatten the richness and diversity of human experiences. Moreover, they assert that sexual attraction is an inherent aspect of human nature and that embracing the erotic nature of breasts should not be equated with objectification.

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Of breasts and tits…

El País by ANA IRIS SIMÓN, translation and adaptation to English by Germán & Co.

“The question of why Western society covers female breasts and their association with eroticism is intriguing. Equally fascinating are the motives of those who want to desexualize them. During her performance on the 12th at the Sonorama festival in Aranda de Duero, Burgos, Eva Amaral, a Spanish singer-songwriter and member of the group Amaral with Juan Aguirre, exposed her breasts. Born in Zaragoza, Aragon, Spain on August 4, 1972, Eva Amaral studied sculpture at the Zaragoza Art School and while studying, was the drummer in the band Bandera Blanca.

It is unclear if this act would contribute to preserving the dignity of female nudity, which is what she claimed while revealing her breasts. This act was akin to some avant-garde works that require an explanation. The truth is that the singer's discussion of her breasts in such detail led to some interesting reflections, despite the ease with which she spoke about it.

The maestro Cuartango, for instance, has used this as a starting point to validate the connection between eroticism and modesty - there can't be one without the other, no matter how much Amaral may seek to persuade us otherwise. He has also reflected on how the excessive amount of flesh in modern times, rather than any deficiency, has led to the decline of eroticism.

Enrique García-Máiquez has commented on those who believe that exposing one's breasts provokes anger in many individuals when, in actual fact, it barely offends anyone. He also highlights a trick some people use, similar to when during an argument, a person says, 'Don't get nervous,' which, despite being said to a person who is calm, only exacerbates their already calm demeanor.

On the other hand, Sergio del Molino has suggested that Amaral's breasts are not irritating just because they are exposed, but rather because they represent a particular kind of excessive celebration and enjoyment of life among the 'pijoprogre' group that is intolerable to some disgruntled individuals.

In my opinion, the buxom women in Sorrentino's movies expose their breasts joyfully, in contrast to Amaral's exhibition which seems more vulgar and provocative, annoying some people. The Biznaga sings of the champions of nothingness. It is futile to fight against a non-existent threat, which is the absurd idea that women should be allowed to take their clothes off when there are already hot women in lingerie on marquees and networks, and we send a girl in a thong to Eurovision.

Amaral, like many other women, supports the desexualization of female breasts and considers them to be equivalent to male breasts. Her argument is probably based on the fact that if Iggy Pop's partner can sing while wearing only a torso, why can't she do the same? In fact, she can and has performed in that manner, but let's not dwell on it.

The question of why the female breast is covered in Western society and its relation to eroticism is intriguing. However, it is also thought-provoking to explore the reasons why some people want to desexualize breasts. Could it be because they see the breasts' attraction as oppressive? Is it because of a form of egalitarianism that sometimes borders on the absurd, attempting to treat the different equally? Or is it because of a superficial modernity that values subversion as an end in itself? I wonder genuinely.

Moreover, I wonder even more genuinely. I am sincerely curious. Moreover, it seems hypocritical when someone claims to desexualize female breasts but then displays cleavage just for others to consider one attractive, irrespective of how much Amarales argues otherwise. Therefore, the crucial question is whether we are ready to relinquish the influence that our breasts provide us, a topic that made feminist Camille Paglia unpopular with feminists. This power, albeit unconsciously, is noticeable amongst all of us, especially those of us with a bust size exceeding 90…

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"Russia is —unorthodox and risky— selling hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil to India for —rupees—."

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Artwork by Germán & Co. Protected by copyright.

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Source: POLITICO.EU

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Is OPEC worried about Russia's unorthodox and risky attempts to sell oil for rupees that may cause market upheaval?

By Germán & Co.

OPEC undoubtedly has reservations about Russia's atypical and precarious endeavours to trade oil in rupees, as this could lead to market disruption. As an organisation responsible for stabilising oil prices and ensuring oil supply security, OPEC has typically employed a dollar-based trading system. Russia's attempts to sell oil in rupees may lead to numerous negative consequences, such as market fluctuations and diminished investor confidence in established trading practices. Additionally, the country's determination to boost oil production may interfere with OPEC's aim to stabilise supply and demand, adversely affecting the economic prosperity of its members. OPEC is closely monitoring Russia's actions and recognises the possible implications in the global oil market.

Russia's decision to trade hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil to India for rupees is largely motivated by its weakened economy. However, the availability of those rupees to Moscow is yet to be determined. This situation highlights Russia's pressing need for revenue and its significant dependence on the oil sector to acquire foreign currency. The Russian economy is grappling with the impact of global sanctions brought about by the invasion of Ukraine and internal political instability, underlining the considerable absence of economic diversity.

The Kremlin's sole option is to earn income by exporting its natural resources to other nations rather than investing in its country. This imprudent practice jeopardises the long-term stability of the Russian economy and raises concerns regarding revenue management and its impact on the population. The current economic conditions in the Kremlin indicate the severity of the situation, as hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil are being exchanged with India for rupees. 

Nevertheless, it is yet to be determined whether Moscow can effectively tackle its persistent financial issues with these rupees.  As a dominant entity in the worldwide oil industry, OPEC holds a prominent role in shaping market dynamics and stability. Moreover, it is crucial to determine OPEC's position on potential market disturbances since it can significantly impact Russia's oil exports and overall economic recovery. Thus, it is imperative to comprehend objectively OPEC's stance concerning potential disruptions. Collaboration and coordination between OPEC nations are essential to guarantee a well-balanced and sustainable oil market that caters to the interests of all stakeholders.

While searching for substitute methods to generate revenue, Russia must also take into account the possible consequences of its overreliance on oil exports. Investing in other sectors and diversifying the economy can alleviate the risks associated with variations in oil pricing and worldwide market dynamics.

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POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN, SEPTEMBER 14, 2023 

Russia is selling hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil to India — but instead of the dollars and euros the Kremlin needs to plug holes in its budget, it's earning mountains of rupees that are proving hard to spend.

So far this year, India has already bought more than half a billion barrels of crude, an almost tenfold increase since 2021, the year before the war, according to statistics collected by analytics firm Kpler. As a result, an estimated $1 billion worth of rupees is landing in Moscow's coffers each month.

Over the weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov acknowledged the dilemma. “We've accumulated many billions of rupees that we haven't yet found a use for," he said during a press conference following the G20 summit in New Delhi.

The Indian currency is only partly convertible; New Delhi needs to give approval for larger transactions, and so far it's not doing that for its oil spending. Instead, India has reportedly offered an unconventional solution — reinvesting rupees into its own economy.

"Our Indian partners have assured us that they will suggest promising areas where they could be invested,” Lavrov said.

It's a knock-on effect of the oil price limits and other sanctions aimed at punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The G7 and the EU have imposed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian crude sales; Moscow is doing its best to dodge those restrictions, but with markets in the U.S. and most of the EU off limits, Russia is being forced to make unorthodox deals to keep oil revenues flowing.

And that's turning into a very lucrative win for India, as New Delhi's traders have been able to secure supplies at a substantial markdown.

“If there’s a 30 percent discount, the Russians are putting a ribbon around it and sending it to us free," India’s Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said last month.

Putting cash into fast-growing India isn't in itself a bad deal, but those are long-term investments, while the Kremlin needs convertible hard currency now to help fund its war machine.

"There's a large volume of investment coming into the country because of the opportunities India can offer," said Arvind Pangariya, professor of Indian political economy at Columbia University. "From Russia's perspective the only issue is whether it is more constrained in its current account and needs to make payments elsewhere — in that case liquidity then becomes an issue."

With Western sanctions and energy export restrictions weighing heavy on the Russian budget, having funds tied up in foreign currency and stuck in India is hardly a good outcome. Russia "constantly needs cash" said Alexandra Prokopenko, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

India is also earning an extra bonus as the crude it's buying at knock-down prices from Russia is being refined in India and then diesel and other products are being sold to Europe and elsewhere.

"The Indian government is simply prioritizing India's national interests," said Anisree Suresh, a researcher at India's Centre for Public Policy Research. "We have been getting oil with discounts of almost $35 per barrel to almost $20 per barrel in the last few months and, as one MP in the Indian parliament said recently, India was able to save almost $3.6 billion by importing crude oil from Russia."

Although Ukraine is calling for Europe to stop buying refined oil products made with Russian crude, advocates of the policy say this is the way that the sanctions were designed — cutting Kremlin profits while not destabilizing global oil markets.

"By becoming a global provider of oil products, India has helped stabilize European markets as well," said Suresh.

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“A fairy tale about Narendra Modi's visionary plans to transform India could be spun…

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Believe it or not, Washington denied Modi a visa due to a US regulation…

Since then, much has changed, particularly in the global context and in Modi's political position, and the veto is a distant memory. India has emerged as a powerful nation, and the United States needs support in its dispute with China…

According to the World Bank's governance indices, the country has made significant improvements in management, regulation, and anti-corruption efficiency…

Modi now is determined to position India as the foremost producer of semiconductors in the race against China's dominance in this sector…

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Born in Vadnagar on 17 September 1950, Mr Narendra Modi played a crucial role in elevating India's economy to unprecedented heights. Despite his leadership drawing differing perspectives, Modi indisputably remains a prominent figure in international politics and economics, given his substantial contributions and global impact.

As we recount Mr Modi's distinguished political career at home and abroad, we are reminded of the fables of our childhood. However, it is worth noting that as the leader of Gujarat between 2005 and 2014, Modi was barred from entering the United States. Washington barred Mr Modi from obtaining a visa due to a US regulation prohibiting visas to foreign government officials promoting or accountable for severe restrictions on religious freedom. The ban resulted from violent conflicts between Hindus and Muslims in Gujarat in 2002, which occurred while Modi was the state's leader. He is a nationalist politician from the Hindu faith who hosted the G20 summit in New Delhi.

Since then, significant changes have occurred, especially in the global context and Mr Modi's political position, with the veto now a distant memory. India has emerged as a powerful nation, and the US needs backing in its dispute with China. Last June, Modi was honoured in Washington for the umpteenth time, inducted into the exclusive cohort of leaders invited to address the gathered US chambers twice, a privilege bestowed upon iconic figures like Churchill and Mandela.

The two events signify a significant milestone for a highly controversial leader. Narendra Modi, has been Prime Minister of India since 2014 while simultaneously leading the Hindu nationalist BJP party. Although India has made positive strides in economic and geopolitical factors.

Mr Modi is a charismatic and determined political leader. He requested that the private sector enhance its efforts and vocalised his desire to achieve global dominance during his 75th anniversary of Indian independence speech, which gained significant popularity.

As the leader of a nation that has encountered unparalleled economic growth in the last two years and accomplished a significant feat in its lunar program in August, Mr Modi's influence is increasing globally. According to the World Bank's governance indices, the country has made clear progress in multiple areas, such as management, regulation, and anti-corruption efficiency. The summit achieved a diplomatic victory in steering a challenging consensus.

India is undertaking significant structural investments to modernisemodernise and alleviate poverty. The way forward is extensive, as is the gap compared to its primary competitor, China, and there must be a guarantee of smooth progress. Nonetheless, there is evidence of recent enhancements in India's current situation.

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Image: Germán & Co

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Source: Media

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Modi aims to position India as a leading producer of semiconductors…

An article published in yesterday's issue of The New York Times by Alex Travelli reports the current competition between India and China in this field while citing studies from New Delhi, Gandhinagar, and Dholera.

“A 12-inch silicon semiconductor disc, reflecting like a platinum record, shines on the wall of Ashwini Vaishnaw's New Delhi office. As India's minister for electronics and information technology, Vaishnaw proudly displays this disc beside a portrait of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The microprocessors' circuits, measured in nanometres and invisible to the human eye, are the most sophisticated objects. They are comparable to oil in terms of their immense value.

As per the Indian government, India will soon manufacture all microprocessor chips in the digital world. Mr Modi's confidence that he can steer India to the forefront of advanced technology manufacturing is apparent and magnanimous.

In July, numerous foreign business people gathered in Modi's home state of Gujarat. Subsidies worth $10 billion are available, financing up to 50 or 70 per cent of a company's expenses. The chairman of British mining and metals group Vedanta, Anil Agarwal, suggested that "Vedanta made-in-India chips" will be available by 2025.

Dholera, Gujarat, will soon be home to India's first 'semiconductor city' in a barren plain designated for this purpose. It is approximately the size of Singapore. Newly constructed, direct roads interconnect wet fields, connecting planning bureaus to energy facilities. Freshwater canals, sourced from a diverted river, are also present alongside the colossal outline of an international airport engraved in the dust. Except for these features, Dholera's colossal grid is essentially barren. In the worldwide pursuit of computer chips, Dholera hopes to prevail.

India's tech clusters around Bengaluru, a two-hour flight to the south, have embedded the country within the global semiconductor community through their chip design work rather than chip production. In recent years, the government has devoted significant investment in subsidies to transform India into an electronics manufacturing hub.

However, the actual challenge remains in chip production…

Since 2020, Mr Modi has implemented "production-linked incentives" to incentivise mobile phone manufacturers to increase their production in India, offering more significant government subsidies by production rates. Although regular factory workers with some skill level can complete mobile phone assembly work. On the other hand, the production of chips requires highly skilled workers; presently, Taiwan is the preferred location for manufacturing advanced logic chips.

As concerns about China escalate and chips continue to be crucial to all forms of technology, the situation appears increasingly precarious for buyers and sellers. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, established in 1987 by chip pioneer Morris Chang, is endeavouring to assist the United States in setting up its fabs in Arizona through President Biden's CHIPS Act.

India needs to have these capabilities…

India has no background in chip manufacturing and needs more highly specialised engineers and equipment necessary for starting. Nevertheless, the country plans to produce chips domestically and shortly. It took TSMC and other Taiwanese companies several decades, supported by government funding and billions in capital investment, to reach their current level of success.

Since October last year, when the United States decided to limit Western tools and labour for the Chinese chip industry, China has invested extensively in its chip makers. This investment is significantly higher than India has spent on its own companies.

Mr Agarwal of Vedanta, the conglomerate aiming to establish India's inaugural semiconductor foundry, foresees chip production in two and a half years. He has appointed David Reed, a seasoned professional from companies involved in chip-making worldwide, and also, like Mr Chang, from Texas Instruments - a once-renowned American chip-making firm. Mr Reed, who possesses excellent leadership qualities and an amicable style, plans to utilise his network within the closely-knit community of chip-makers. He aims to persuade 300 industry specialists from European and East Asian factories to reside in rural Gujarat to set up a complex.

He quietly states that he needs to triple the salaries of his new employees. Additionally, an equal number of Indians will eventually be trained to replace them.

Mr Reed's biggest challenge will be convincing established players in the East Asian community to move to an unfamiliar location for themselves and their families. The land and power infrastructure discovered in Gujarat will attract foreign recruits; however, housing, schools, and nightlife require further development. Nevertheless, the local candidate pool instils optimism as India produces over 1.4 million highly skilled engineers annually, while Taiwan faces a shortage of fresh talent.

Moreover, creating microchips demands numerous bespoke materials. Mr Vaishnaw, the government official in charge, stated that India's significant chemical plants near Dholera can produce the required special gases and liquids for operating any chip factory. The proper connectivity via seaports and railheads can guarantee a high standard level of connectivity.

The Indian technology industry is delighted to be in the spotlight, with the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander successfully landing on the moon's south pole at the end of August as a prime example. Mr Modi saw the Group of 20 summit as a significant opportunity to highlight India's digital public infrastructure.

An increasingly important aspect of India's chip-making industry is its relationship with China, which has changed from being a significant investment destination to one viewed cautiously. Prime Minister Modi has emphasised India's role in establishing a reliable supply chain for countries that do not have strong ties with Beijing.

At the beginning of his first term in 2015, Mr Modi introduced the "Make in India" programme with the support of chip industry pioneer Morris Chang. He has striven to establish American manufacturing plants, or "fabs", in Arizona with the assistance of President Biden's subsidy-subsidised CHIPS Act.

India needs a history in this regard.

In 2015, early in Mr Modi's first term as prime minister, he announced a 'Make in India' programme, the broader industrial push that frames the current CHIPS initiative. But manufacturing's economy share has since stagnated, hovering around 15 per cent. Smaller Asian countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam have overtaken India in most categories, exporting larger volumes of goods such as garments and electrical equipment.

India excels in the export of intellectually demanding services and 'deep tech'. With the notable exception of pharmaceuticals, its manufacturing companies have largely failed to compete internationally.

Some business leaders - and not just Mr Modi's naysayers - argue that the Indian government has bitten off more than it can chew by setting logic chip foundries as its goal. Indeed, the timeframe announced by Mr Agarwal's Vedanta is highly ambitious, if not implausible. That is not to say that there are no gains to be made: Expanding India's role in the global chip supply chain looks like a much better bet. Indian officials do not put it this way, but it is a Plan B for Mr Modi's chip-making moonshot.

For example, Micron Technology, a memory chip company based in Boise, Idaho, has committed $2.7 billion to another industrial site in Gujarat, 60 miles from Dholera. It is to become a centre for ATMP work, chip jargon for "assembly, test, marking and packaging". These are the advanced processes that go into making modern chips perform.

Malaysia does some of this work now, and India could nibble away at its market there while doubling down on chip design.

Whether these plans succeed or fail, they reveal a gargantuan scale of ambition. They also make clear that India sees a muscular role for the state, with a mix of tariffs and subsidies to help its national champions get off the ground and into global competition. This kind of state capitalism puts it in the company of China, the United States and other major countries that have belatedly embraced versions of it. And that may be Modi's ultimate goal.

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What did Javier Miele smoke, you may wonder?

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Mieles proposal to legalize the sale of organs has sparked intense debates and elicited passionate reactions from various factions.

"My first property is my body; why shouldn't I be able to dispose of my body?

Mercopress.com

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The "transplant tourism"… priceless value of kidneys, for poorest people in countries like the Philippines or India.

The ethical dilemma surrounding the global organ shortage is a critical issue that demands our attention. The current number of kidney transplants performed each year falls drastically short of the staggering demand from the 1 million individuals suffering from end-stage renal disease. It beckons us to ponder whether the establishment of a worldwide market for organ sales could provide a viable solution.

However, the real concern lies in finding a way to harmonize a profit-driven system with the noble objective of saving lives without subjecting the impoverished to exploitation. These multifaceted questions were comprehensively addressed by a diverse array of experts, comprising distinguished medical professionals, international health specialists, and esteemed ethicists, who gathered for an enlightening symposium hosted at Harvard University. The symposium's insightful discussions, under the guidance of the esteemed Chairman Daniel E. Wikler, revealed the inherently susceptible and disconcerting nature of this subject, with elements intertwined with a sense of profound tragedy.

The fate of countless patients in desperate need of organ transplants teeters precariously, whilst on the opposing end of the spectrum, the vulnerable and destitute find themselves exposed to the perils of an expanding industry known as "transplant tourism." The focus of this significant conference revolved around kidney transplantation, with Wikler poignantly accentuating the immeasurable value of kidneys - a treasure akin to diamonds, even in the possession of the poorest individuals in countries like the Philippines or India.

However, amidst the anguish of debilitating illnesses, it remains paramount to safeguard the moral fabric of society. Thus, our pursuit for solutions to the organ shortage must be underpinned by unwavering adherence to moral standards, as they guide us on this tireless quest for a just and ethical resolution.o protect, said the one-time chief ethicist for the World Health Organization (WHO). However, “with life hanging in the balance,” said Wikler of organ markets, “we need compelling moral reasons to get in the way.”

Medical systems worldwide are far from meeting the needs of kidney-transplant candidates, said Luc Noël, who tracks transplantation issues for WHO in Geneva. Nevertheless, he said there is also an urgent need for global resolve. In the past decade, WHO and other groups have called for international standards to protect the poor, monitor transplantation quality, keep the process transparent, and ban commercialization (now mainly driven by the Internet).

In the current global hodgepodge of transplant tourism, he said that thousands of patients — from the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other prosperous nations — get the kidneys they need. But their donors (some of them exploited by organized crime) frequently get the short and sharp end of the stick.

Harvard.EDU

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Dear readers,

Here at Germán & Co., we highly value objective and ethical thinking. We are committed to delivering high-quality and precise information. To achieve this, we have invested in thorough research, necessary software licenses, and appropriate venues. Our blog has a loyal readership that admires our dedication to journalism.
Yet, maintaining this standard requires financial support. We kindly ask our readers to stand in solidarity and provide support, even a minimum contribution of 2 Euros. Your contribution helps uphold our blog, improve our content, and reach a larger audience. Each donation, regardless of size, greatly assists us in fulfilling our mission. With your support, we can continue to operate independently and uphold unbiased journalism.

We sincerely express our gratitude to you,

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Argentina's deep economic crisis...

The economic crisis in Argentina has led to an unfortunate reality of public spaces being converted into makeshift settlements for those experiencing homelessness. This situation is not unique to the country. The Ezeiza International Airport in Buenos Aires demonstrates the severity of the issue, with open public areas being transformed into temporary shelters resembling the Salvation Army hostel. The scene is distressing as families are crowded together with their belongings scattered, and a sense of despair weighing heavily in the air.

However, the proposed idea by the peculiar candidate for Argentina's presidency, Javier Mielie, to tackle the economic crisis by converting the national currency from pesos to dollars and even advocating for organ sale is both unethical and unsettling. Objective evaluation of such approaches is necessary. The suggestion of commodifying human organs for monetary gain is inhumane and challenges the essence of our humanity.

It is important to find solutions that uphold our moral values and protect human dignity, especially in times when the most vulnerable members of society are suffering. Instead of resorting to extreme measures that exploit individuals and compromise their well-being, we should concentrate on implementing policies that encourage inclusive economic growth, provide social safety nets, and support sustainable development. By tackling the fundamental causes of the crisis and striving for long-term solutions, we can create a more promising future that upholds the rights and dignity of all citizens.

It is important that leaders, both in Argentina and worldwide, place compassion and empathy at the forefront when facing difficult circumstances. By uniting and acknowledging the inherent value of every individual, we can promote a society where no one is marginalized, and the conversion of public spaces from shelters back into lively communal areas becomes a possibility. This crisis provides Argentina with a chance to reassess its economic policies and work towards a fairer and more just society, where healthcare, education, and basic necessities are readily available.

During these unsettled times, it is important to recognize our interconnectedness and understand that we must work together to overcome challenges. We must not forget our common humanity and responsibility to create a world where economic crises do not drive people to despair. Together, we can help create a future in which public spaces serve as sanctuaries of hope and families find solace and security instead of being forced to reside in makeshift settlements due to the economic crisis.

Perhaps the only factual statement regarding the polarising Argentine presidential candidate is his declaration to rid Argentina of its corrupt political elite responsible for the poverty and destitution of its people. This bold claim has caught the attention of many, sparking both hope and skepticism among the population.

In relation to this issue, the head of the United Nations' regional office for the area, ECLAC's Ms Alicia Becerra, also voiced her concerns in October 2022.

“She emphasized the need for countries to strategically direct public spending towards economic revitalization and transformation. Her call to action includes bolstering public investment in sectors that promote job creation, gender equality, social inclusion, and productive change, while also ensuring an equal transition towards environmental sustainability. It is an ambitious approach that seeks to address the multifaceted challenges faced by Argentina and many other nations worldwide.

The urgency of this matter has been further underscored by the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ms Becerra highlighted the significant and long-lasting negative impacts on the economy, productivity, and society as a whole. Increased inequality, poverty, and unemployment have become all too familiar consequences of the crisis. Sadly, it is anticipated that the return of economic activity (GDP) to pre-pandemic levels will be slower than the recovery observed during the subprime crisis of 2007-2008, which further compounds the complexities of the current situation. In light of these circumstances, the promises made by the Argentine presidential candidate take on an even greater significance, as they offer a glimmer of hope for a better future amid the uncertainty and hardship faced by the nation…

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Javier Mieles' thought is controversial...

Byy his radical ideas to completely dismantle the Argentinean political system, has captivated the attention of many. Javier is resolute in his mission to challenge the entrenched "caste" that he believes has tainted the realm of politics in Argentina.

Giving a kick in the ass to the rancid and corrupt Argentinean political system, which he calls: "caste"...

He has even proposed the controversial notion of legalising the sale of organs, which has sent shockwaves throughout the country. This provocative idea, unveiled almost a year ago, continues to arouse curiosity and controversy among the population.

To truly understand the man behind these bold propositions, we must delve into Mr Miele's background. Born on October 22, 1970, in the vibrant and bohemian neighbourhood of Palermo in Buenos Aires, Javier has become increasingly famous, surpassing even revered figures such as Diego Armando Maradona, Pope Francis, and the Kirchner family. Although his physical appearance is enigmatic, with distinctive bushy sideburns resembling the former president Carlos Menem, it is just one aspect of his unique personality.

Javier's psychedelic nature permeates not only his ideas but also his theatrical gestures and unconventional thoughts. It is these very traits that have propelled him into the spotlight and sparked hope among those yearning for change in the outdated and perilous political landscape. Yet, amidst all the fame and charisma, a lingering question remains:

Who is Javier Miele, truly?

Milei, an economist and political outsider, has been compared to former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. He has gained a significant following for his right-wing beliefs, TV appearances, and background as a rock musician. His bombastic style has also contributed to his popularity. Dubbed "The Wig" for his dramatic, unkempt hairstyle - he claims it is because he does not comb it - the self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist draws on anger towards corruption, the ruling class, and the political elite.

As a young man, Milei played goalkeeper for a second-division football team before studying economics at the University of Belgrano in Buenos Aires. He has taught economics and written several books, including "The Path of the Libertarian" and his latest work, "The End of Inflation." He began his political career in 2021 with an "anti-caste" focus and is now a member of the lower house of Argentina's Congress. His previous band, Everest, primarily performed songs by the Rolling Stones.

What is the underlying motivation behind his bid to become the President of Argentina?

Via his Freedom Advances political party, Milei has consistently promised to restore freedom to Argentinians, allowing them to assume control over their own future. A crucial component of his agenda includes abolishing the nation's Central Bank, an idea that his campaign initially disavowed but eventually acknowledged. Additionally, Milei recommends the dollarisation of the economy, a policy Argentina has previously implemented with unfavourable outcomes.

Argentina experienced an economic crisis in 1991 during the presidency of Carlos Menem. In the midst of this turmoil, Eduardo Cavallo, the head of the national economic system, implemented a peso-to-dollar parity of 1:1, a decision that ultimately proved successful. However, in 2001, President Fernando de la Rua continued Cavallo's policies but faced limited success and widespread public outrage, leading to his resignation.

In addition to Milei's controversial stance, he rejects climate change as a "socialist deception," despite Argentina grappling with a severe three-year drought that experts warn may have been worsened by rising temperatures associated with climate change. This bold rejection of scientific consensus not only raises additional questions about Milei's stance on environmental issues, but also highlights his disregard for the potential impact of climate change on the country's already vulnerable ecosystem. In summary, Milei's political ideology, which aims to return freedom to the people and dismantle institutions such as the Central Bank, draws parallels to previous monetary policies that Argentina has implemented during times of economic hardship. However, his denial of climate change and disregard for environmental issues set him apart from the pressing need for sustainability and considerate management of resources in today's world.

Moreover, in addition to his divisive stance on climate change, Milei has voiced extreme perspectives on other debatable matters. For example, he proposes that the procurement and transfer of organs be regarded as "another marketplace." This position is bound to trigger strong arguments among ethicists and backers of organ donation.

Furthermore, Milei has expressed a strong opposition to abortion, which was legalized in Argentina in 2020. This disagreement with a personal choice raises concerns about his attitude towards women's rights and access to comprehensive healthcare. Milei's views on sex education also reveal a contentious perspective. He argues that sex education is part of a 'post-Marxist agenda' aimed at dismantling the concept of the family. This argument fails to acknowledge the significance of comprehensive sexual education in promoting healthy relationships while preventing issues like unwanted pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections. Additionally, it ignores the diverse structures that families can possess and enforces a narrow and exclusionary definition.

To further reinforce his contentious position, Milei has pledged to address Argentina's public payroll by either closing or privatising state institutions. He has even expressed intentions to close ministries and dismiss civil servants employed in 2023. While this assertive approach may seem attractive to those seeking swift budget cuts and fiscal discipline, it raises concerns about the possible impact on public services and the livelihoods of those working in the public sector.

In conclusion, Milei's political perspectives and daring assertions elicit powerful responses from all sides of the spectrum. While some may find his ideologies appealing, it is worth noting his dismissal of crucial environmental issues and denial of climate change highlights a concerning lack of understanding and empathy. Moreover, his radical opinions regarding organ trading, abortion, and sex education further contribute to the complexity and divisiveness of his platform.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Che cosa ! Nord Stream, 7.5 billion euros, blast in seconds…

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“The term Aleteia, taken from the Greek word "alétheia," not only encapsulates the fundamental concepts of truth, sincerity, and reality but also provides a profound framework for ethical behaviour that can be applied to a wide range of fields, including politics and media. Instead, it emphasises the unrelenting quest to reveal and uncover truth. Alétheia, in its philosophical essence, transcends unthinking adherence to dogma or inflexible principles. The concept acknowledges that no falsehood or deception can last forever, emphasising the great importance of genuine information and indisputable reality. ..

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Principle of Sufficient Reason…

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Why might individuals, anarchist groups, or nations sabotage Nord Stream?

There are numerous factors contributing to the contemplation of sabotaging the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. Economic interests of individuals, anarchist groups, or nations are key, as energy resources are vital for economic growth and geopolitical dominance. The disruption of this critical pipeline opens up opportunities for others to exploit. Political motivations should not be underestimated, as some countries may perceive the Nord Stream as a threat to their energy security or a tool for disproportionate regional influence. Environmental concerns should also be considered, as critics argue that the pipeline's construction and operation pose significant risks, warranting serious measures like sabotage for ecosystem safeguarding. In conclusion, the reasons behind the consideration of sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipeline involve a complex amalgamation of economic and political factors, with environmental concerns playing a relatively minor role. (1)

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A few historic facts...

Throughout history, many events have had a profound impact on the world as we know it today. From ancient civilizations to contemporary revolutions, these events are of immense historical significance. One notable example of human ambition and engineering prowess is the construction of the Great Wall of China in the 3rd century BC. This monumental structure is a testament to the ingenuity and determination of the people of the time. Another pivotal moment in history was the signing of the Magna Carta in 1215, which played a crucial role in establishing individual rights and freedoms. The events of the Second World War, which took place from 1939 to 1945, had far-reaching consequences that changed the course of history and laid the foundations for the establishment of the United Nations. The landing on the moon in 1969 was also an example of the advancement of human technology and the spirit of exploration. More recently, India achieved a significant milestone by successfully landing on the South Pole of the Moon. These historical facts, among many others, remind us of our past and can help us make wise decisions and inspire us to work towards a more promising future. However, it is unfortunate that often these lessons from history go ignored or overlooked. That said. (2)

For many erudite individuals, the fate of Nord Stream may seem to have started in 2022. However, in the context of Ukrainian and Russian history, its origins can be traced back to the year 882. During this time, the federation of Kievan Rus was established, encompassing several East Slavic tribes, with Ukraine at its heart. Over time, Kievan Rus became the largest and most powerful state in Europe. However, its prominence was short-lived as it was invaded by the Mongols in 1256, resulting in a lack of knowledge about this period today. Following the disintegration of Kievan Rus, one of the principalities, Galicia-Volhynian, became the Kingdom of Ruthenia. In 1349, it joined Lithuania, forming the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Ruthenia, and Austro-Hungary. Eventually, this territory became part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which encompassed present-day Poland and Lithuania. Cossack Ukraine formed in 1648 after the Khmelnytskyi rebellion and lasted until the mid-eighteenth century before gradually disintegrating. The majority of Ukrainian territory remained within the Russian Empire, which was established in 1721. (3)

When examining the rich history of Ukraine, it is essential to consider the valuable insights provided by literature. One such example is Anton Chekhov's famous story "The Lady with the Dog", published in 1899. This gripping tale explores the complexities of an illicit relationship between a disaffected Moscow banker and a young married woman during their lonely outing at Yalta. Chekhov deftly explores the intricacies of human emotions and desires in this story, offering a glimpse into the social dynamics and personal dilemmas prevalent at the time.Furthermore, a full understanding of Ukraine's political history requires recognition of the significant impact of the Yalta Conference. This momentous gathering took place in the Russian resort of Crimea from 4 to 11 February 1945. It brought together the visionary leaders of the United States, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Winston Churchill, and the Premier of the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin. Together they worked to shape a new geopolitical order against the turbulent backdrop of the Second World War. The decisions made at this conference continue to have far-reaching consequences and leave a lasting legacy: the aftermath of the Cold War played a pivotal role in shaping subsequent events and prompted the Soviets to ensure that they would never again be militarily inferior. Unravelling the complex historical links between Ukraine, Russia and current geopolitical affairs is a significant challenge. Indeed, the perception of any situation as either simple or complex depends on one's perspective and the historical context in which it is examined. (4)

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50 years of Russian gas imports to Germany...

This image, presented by Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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Nord Stream's birth was complex and with "forces"…

This image, presented by Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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Media: On September 8, 2005, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Dmitry Medvedev officially agree and sign the Nord Stream Agreement.

Nord Stream: Russia's imperialistic ambitions, Germany's energy security.

The notion of creating energy trade relations between Russia and Germany arose in the 1990s, amid widespread protests, emphasizing its significance to both sides. This concept, born during a time of global change, was realised on 8 September 2005 with the official signing of the Nord Stream agreement, marking a substantial transitional phase in the tumultuous 50-year era of Russian gas imports into Germany. This historic agreement resolved previous disputes and created new opportunities for cooperation. This commercial alliance has certainly promoted strong economic relationships between the two countries, ensuring that Germany has a secure energy supply and reinforcing its reliance on Russia. Moreover, this agreement has established the groundwork for a diverse relationship and acted as a launchpad for the Siberian Silver Wolf dream's expansion into the heart of Europe, strengthening the connection between these two nations. (5)

Avoid to pay costly tolls…

The Nord Stream is an impressive double pipeline that spans a massive 1,224 kilometres. Its construction was no small feat, requiring the careful assembly of 200,000 individual segments, all crafted by Europipe in Mühlheim, Germany. The logistical process involved the steady arrival of 15 freight trains per week, transporting these segments to the bustling ferry port of Sassnitz. From there, the segments were expertly loaded onto ships for their transformative journey.
In terms of cost, the project carried a staggering price tag of 7.4 billion euros, with much of the funding coming directly or indirectly from the Russian state. However, this substantial investment has paid off, as the Nord Stream has achieved a groundbreaking goal by stretching beneath international waters to connect Russia and Germany through the Baltic Sea. The projecto had a revolutionary impact on the European energy landscape, bypassing government policies, tolls, and bureaucracy.
Moreover, the Nord Stream plays a crucial role in Germany's transition away from coal, as the country heavily relies on natural gas. Ensuring a dependable and constant supply of natural gas is of utmost importance as the demand for this cleaner energy source rapidly increases. Guaranteeing stability through projects like the Nord Stream is essential for Germany's successful shift to cleaner energy sources.(6)

Ukraine loses Russian gas market.

This notable accomplishment by Gazprom has resulted in a regrettable predicament wherein Ukraine has suffered the consequences of being completely excluded from the highly significant Russian gas market. Over several years, Ukraine has maintained a substantial role in Gazprom's gas marketing endeavours, reaping the advantages of favourable pricing. Consequently, Ukraine could fulfil its energy requirements at a reasonably economical expense. The repercussions of this exclusion extend beyond Ukraine itself, resonating throughout Europe's energy security and the intricate geopolitical landscape of the region. (7)

European energy sector's fate sealed.

The Nord Stream 2 agreement has alleviated various concerns by giving precedence to economic considerations rather than convoluted political factors. Nevertheless, legitimate apprehensions persist regarding its possible ramifications and hazards. (8)

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Image: Germán & Co

Dear readers,

Here at Germán & Co., we highly value objective and ethical thinking. We are committed to delivering high-quality and precise information. To achieve this, we have invested in thorough research, necessary software licenses, and appropriate venues. Our blog has a loyal readership that admires our dedication to journalism.
Yet, maintaining this standard requires financial support. We kindly ask our readers to stand in solidarity and provide support, even a minimum contribution of 2 Euros. Your contribution helps uphold our blog, improve our content, and reach a larger audience. Each donation, regardless of size, greatly assists us in fulfilling our mission. With your support, we can continue to operate independently and uphold unbiased journalism.

We sincerely express our gratitude to you,

The Team

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Russia invades Ukraine on 24 February 2022

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The Chronicles of the Foretold Death…

Source: Media / Russian tanks in route to Ukraine.

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Che cosa!!!

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“Yes, I have told you many times that the possibility of Russia's imminent intrusion into Ukraine was almost certain. It is essential to remember Russia's history of incursions beyond its borders, which spans several decades. From the invasion of Finland in 1939 to its actions in Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and Afghanistan in 1979, Russia has consistently displayed a tendency for territorial aggressions. Additionally, the invasions of Chechnya in 1994-1996 and 1999-2009, South Ossetia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and its involvement in Syria in 2015 further exemplify this pattern. More recently, in 2022, Russia's incursion into Kazakhstan and Ukraine reaffirmed its willingness to violate international boundaries. Given this historical context, it should be no surprise that the possibility of a Russian intrusion into Ukraine was a serious concern. Che cosa ! (9)

In a characteristic display of its expansionist ambitions, Russia's military executed a well-coordinated mission to forcibly seize Crimea, a strategically significant peninsula owned by Ukraine. The operation lasted nearly a month, concluding on 18th March. However, a more thorough analysis of the situation unveils a compelling truth: the daring step by the Kremlin was preceded by a meticulously planned overthrow of the Ukrainian government on 4th September 2015. The simultaneous nature of these events requires attention, particularly as it coincided with Gazprom's significant announcement on the same day the city of Vladivostok was founded. A media release stated that Gazprom had achieved a breakthrough by creating a new entity devoted to handling the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline's second branch. The energy sector must recognize the importance of this event, which carries substantial implications. It is noteworthy that the Russian news agency, RIA Novosti, was responsible for dispersing the statement.  (10)

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Russia's intervention worsens strained EU relations, has far-reaching geopolitical repercussions…

Emergency tax and energy-saving measures

On 3 September 2022, an article entitled "Natural gas a new 'Russian winter' as a weapon of war" was published on this blog via the online newspaper Dominican Today. The article examines the proposed intervention of European political leaders to implement a "Price-cap" on the final service of electricity within the electricity industry market. This action is expected to significantly impact the European region due to the ongoing economic recession and could have a contagious effect on other regions worldwide. It is important to recognize that the current electricity prices are largely the consequence of a deliberately constrained supply of natural gas from the Kremlin, which is due to a conflict of war and has greatly pushed up the costs of electricity production to their present levels. Therefore, it would be unjust to assign the rise in electricity prices entirely to either the electricity industry or the political leadership. (11)

A week before this publication, a spokesman representing the Kremlin delivered a cautionary message to Europe regarding the approaching winter. However, amidst our preoccupation with the current circumstances. His intention was to serve as a reminder to European politicians about the immense historical significance of the harsh Russian winter, particularly in its role in repelling the invading Nazi forces during World War II. Now, in a modern-day context, natural gas has emerged as an equivalent to the formidable "Russian winter," serving as a potential weapon of war. This explains why the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) promptly addressed this issue in their statement titled "European Winter 2022." (12)

(Kremlin, gas supplies hampered only by EU sanctions – Politics – Nuova Europa – ANSA.it)
(NATO – Opinion: Statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the International Crimea Platform, Aug 23, 2022)

It is of the utmost importance to conduct a thorough and detailed analysis of the recent developments that have occurred. In September 2022, the Kremlin gained complete control over a vital pipeline that supplies Europe with natural gas. The fact that the Russian government owns 50% of the pipeline raises questions about their intentions. However, the idea that they would deliberately undermine its functionality, resulting in a staggering loss of over 2.5 billion euros and giving up future operational advantages, appears highly unlikely and improbable. (13)

There is no way the Kremlin could harm its interests, honestly…

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The announcements and the ironic explosion...

In a rather ironic twist, the fate of Nord Stream, the gas pipeline linking Russia and Europe, has taken a turn for the worse, despite the ample warnings and information that European governments were provided with. Leaked documents of a concerning nature have recently emerged, revealing that in the month of June, the Dutch government dutifully relayed troubling indications to the North American Intelligence Agency (CIA) regarding the controversial decision to remove Nord Stream from the depths of the Baltic Sea. Simultaneously, the North American government took it upon themselves to caution Ukraine against making any significant mistakes amidst this complex and delicate situation. (14)

German company provides laudable performance for Nord Stream 1 turbine...

On the other hand, in July, the German company entrusted with providing one of the turbines for the Nord Stream 1 pipeline exhibited commendable efforts to expedite the delivery process to Gazprom. The initiative was undertaken in response to the persistent delays in the custom procedures, aiming to compensate for the alleged 20% decline in supply, as reported by the Russian company. In these challenging circumstances, it is worth recognizing that various institutions were going above and beyond to ensure the smooth transportation of Russian gas to Europe. (15)

The failures of European intelligence authorities have been a subject of concern….

In spite of receiving advance notice about the intended destruction of the pipelines as early as June, European intelligence authorities were expected to take prompt and effective actions to protect against this intentional act of sabotage. This unfortunate lack of preparedness is poised to cause far-reaching consequences, both in terms of economic losses and political implications. The incident took place precisely at 2 a.m. (ECT) on the ill-fated day of September 26th, thereby serving as a somber indication of missed chances to avert this grim eventuality. (16)

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ilustration by  Germán & Co. 

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Nord Stream Blast stirs EU and USA reaction…

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One effective strategy used for distraction involves implementing balloon information probes. These serve as a valuable tool to capture attention and divert focus away from a particular subject or situation.

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Despite being informed of the destructive intentions towards the pipelines since June, European intelligence authorities ought to have implemented the requisite security measures to prevent this deliberate act of sabotage. This negligence will undoubtedly result in consequential economic and political impacts. The incident occurred precisely at 2 a.m. (ECT) on September 26th, reminding us of missed opportunities to prevent this occurrence. (17)

Many governments in Europe are known for their tendency to swiftly attribute blame to the Kremlin-enclosed capital of Moscow, holding it responsible for the destruction of the pipeline.

“However, in a strong and outright rebuttal, the Kremlin vehemently denied the so called "Stupid" accusations, asserting that it was nothing but a spontaneous reaction. The Russian ministry went on to make assertions, claiming that the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline was orchestrated by "British specialists" hailing from the same unit responsible for Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Black Sea fleet ships in Crimea. They further alleged that members of this British Navy unit were involved in the planning, provision, and execution of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 of the current year, specifically targeting the detonation of both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. This information, according to the ministry, was gathered from available sources.

After the Kremlin issued a formal request to Sweden, asking them to disclose any potentially incriminating evidence against the suspects in the explosion case, the Swedish government has chosen to remain silent. The Sweden silence carries weight and may imply a justified or advantageous stance within the legal context. (20)

The official Sweden Statement:

“Sweden's domestic security agency said Thursday that its preliminary investigation of leaks from two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea "has strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage" as the cause, and a prosecutor said evidence at the site has been seized.

The Swedish Security Service said the probe confirmed that "detonations" caused extensive damage to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines last week. When the leaks off Sweden and Denmark first emerged, authorities had said that explosions were recorded in the area….

The Associated Press · Posted: Oct 06, 2022

Every alteration that transpires within the ongoing investigations, as well as the current circumstances and indications, direct our attention towards a completely different aspect or direction:

“Initial suspicions in many European capitals centred on Russia and their potential involvement, with analysts speculating that only a state with a highly advanced military would have been capable of carrying out such a complex underwater attack.

However, investigators have now turned their attention towards the Andromeda and its six occupants. German officials briefed on the investigation have disclosed that some of the individuals renting the yacht were Ukrainian. Others were found to be using Bulgarian passports, which were later determined to be forgeries…

WSJ by Bojan Pancevski Follow, William Boston Follow and Sune Engel Rasmussen Follow, March 16, 2023

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Insurance Agencies Would Love to Know Who Blew Up Nord Stream

Perseus & Andromeda : The Story of Ethiopian Princess Saved from Sea Monster Cetus

The 2020’s most fascinating whodunit is playing out on computer screens around the world: Government investigators, hobby sleuths, and curious members of the public are trying to establish who sabotaged the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines last Sept. 26. But while most of us are simply eager to know who the culprit is, it’s a far more consequential matter for the private sector.

Western European companies invested billions of dollars in the pipelines. Whether their insurance will cover the losses caused by the sabotage depends on who perpetrated it. And as the global geopolitical standoff intensifies, companies face many more enormous losses, hunts for the perpetrator, and disputes about whether the harm was an act of war.

Foreign Policy By Elisabeth Braw,March 20, 2023

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A public secret..

Finally, to conclude this report objectively, it is crucial to emphasise the evident link between secrecy and sinister motives. It is observable that individuals who partake in clandestine missions frequently seek feeble excuses to justify their acts of aggression, thereby exposing their imprudence and absence of basis.

Shifting our focus to an incident that had a significant impact on Europe's energy security, a natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea exploded, resulting in severe repercussions for Germany's energy sector and the global economy. A thorough investigation revealed that the explosion was a deliberate act aimed at highlighting weaknesses in Europe's energy grid. Despite potential leads on the culprits via international media and the Jack Teixiera leak, the revelation of their actions demands worldwide attention. (18)

Given these circumstances, it is essential to prioritise the well-being and rights of individuals globally who have suffered from non-traditional inflationary commodities and shortages of food and fuel. It is worth noting that secrecy alone does not define such human rights violations. Che cosa ! (19)

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Image by Germán & Co.

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“The Dark Day: Germany and Europe’s Energy Crisis...

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The Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning: “The Unpredictable Consequences of Delicate Political Matters

In the realm of politics, there exist certain matters so sensitive, so inherently fragile, that their mere existence can send shockwaves through the social and political fabric of a nation. These issues, oftentimes underpinned by deep-rooted historical, cultural, or ideological tensions, have the potential to disrupt the delicate balance that holds societies together.

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The recent terrorist attack on Germany's crucial energy infrastructure has once again caused permanent damage, highlighting the vulnerability of the nation's energy supply. This attack specifically targeted the natural gas agreement between Russia and Germany via the Baltic Sea, a deal that has attracted significant criticism from authorities in multiple countries due to its flawed political judgment.
Numerous political and historical errors in this so-called "deal" have been thoroughly dissected and scrutinized on various platforms, including this blog. It is clear that the agreement has raised concerns, not only for its potential negative impact on geopolitical dynamics but also for its disregard of Europe's aspirations for energy independence.

“To understand that these terrorist attacks have no justification, we must review the rules of sanctions. Sanctions are a powerful tool employed by nations to address concerns regarding autocratic leaders and their actions, while minimizing the negative impact on their citizens and the overall nation. The European Union (EU) and the United States have adopted a cautious and discerning approach in implementing sanctions, aiming to strike a delicate balance that targets individuals responsible for nefarious activities while sparing the innocent.
Recognizing the distinction between autocratic leaders and the nations they govern is crucial. Both the EU and the US have emphasized the importance of avoiding broad-based sanctions that disproportionately harm civilians, who are often already suffering under oppressive regimes. By focusing on specific individuals and entities responsible for human rights abuses, corruption, or other illicit activities, sanctions can effectively target those responsible without exacerbating the suffering of ordinary citizens….

The explosion has exacerbated the precarious gas supply, caused energy price spikes and disrupted supply chains across the region. The incident was a stark reminder of the deep vulnerability of energy infrastructure resulting from a series of poor geopolitical decisions, and ultimately of the global dependence on stable and secure energy supplies.

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—War, Death, Hunger, Pestilence, and Disinformation—

The last three years have been a tumultuous period for Ukraine and its impact on the global economy. In the midst of a post-pandemic recovery, the Russian invasion and subsequent aggression have added a new dimension to the challenges facing Europe and the world.

War: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused immense war-related devastation, resulting in loss of life, displacement of communities and damage to infrastructure. The ongoing war is exacerbating the economic burden on Ukraine and has far-reaching implications for neighbouring countries and international stability.

Death: Tragically, the conflict has led to the loss of numerous lives. The human toll, driven by violence and instability, creates an immense humanitarian crisis. The impact of death and destruction on families and communities further deepens the wounds of this ongoing struggle.

Hunger: The prolonged conflict, coupled with the disruption of vital supply chains, has severely affected food security in Ukraine and the world.

Pestilence: Already grappling with the aftermath of a catastrophic pandemic, the world faces additional challenges due to the ongoing conflict.

Disinformation: The spread of inconsistent information has been an alarming aspect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This disinformation affects not only the people directly involved but also the perceptions and decision-making of the international community.

The confluence of these five factors—war, death, hunger, pestilence, and disinformation—underscores the immense challenges faced by Ukraine and the broader impact on the international community.

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A Secret But Not a Secret: From a Time Until Now...

According to Spiegel International today (read the full article below), the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea indicates that Kyiv—supposedly—may be responsible. This revelation may alarm the international community and prompt some adjustments in world politics that would ultimately benefit Germany. Investigators have spent the last year tirelessly searching for the truth behind the explosion. The blast was a significant event that unfolded and shook the foundations of Germany's energy sector with serious implications across Europe's economy.

An initial disturbance grew into a disaster orchestrated by an elusive command to cripple Germany's energy supply.

This secret corps demonstrated incredible prowess somewhere in the shadows, skilfully evading detection as they infiltrated the heart of Germany's energy infrastructure. Their mission was to expose the vulnerabilities embedded in Europe's energy network. With surgical precision, they executed their plan, leaving a trail of destruction and millions of unsuspecting citizens without access to vital gas supplies.

The impact was staggering. Millions of homes were plunged into darkness as radiators ceased their steady hum and cold penetrated their walls. Vital industries heavily reliant on gas ground to a halt, exacerbating an already struggling economy. As patients shivered in hospitals, the gravity of the situation became painfully clear - the security of Europe's energy infrastructure had been critically compromised.

The colossal scale of this event could not be underestimated. It was a wake-up call, a stark reminder of our vulnerability in an interconnected world. The once-trusted system that kept the lights on and the wheels turning was now exposed.

As the initial shockwaves reverberated, questions rained down from all corners. How could such a brazen attack have gone unnoticed? Was it an intelligence failure or a profound lapse in security measures? Europe's energy landscape, once considered robust, was now shaken...

Nations across the continent scrambled to deal with the immediate crisis. Emergency measures were implemented as authorities worked tirelessly to restore broken gas lines and strategise for a future where energy security became imperative. Government agencies undertook an arduous task, compounded by the need to restore confidence in a system that had been shaken to its core.

The incident sent ripples of uncertainty across the continent. It was a moment that challenged Europe's collective identity, questioning its unity and resilience. It brought the energy debate to the fore, calling for massive investment in renewable technologies, diversified sources and reliable back-up systems.

In the darkest hour, however, clarity emerged. Europe, no stranger to adversity, would be

The investigation has led the authorities to some politically sensitive findings. According to the evidence collected thus far, it appears that a commando consisting of divers and explosives specialists chartered a vessel named the Andromeda, which departed from Warnemünde in northern Germany. The ship sailed unnoticed across the Baltic Sea before executing its mission on September 26, 2022, by causing significant damage to three pipes belonging to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines.

While initially the identities and motives of the culprits were shrouded in mystery, all the evidence now seems to be pointing towards Kyiv. This revelation is sure to have far-reaching consequences and could potentially strain international relations. The implications of an attack on Germany's energy infrastructure are severe, and accusations are not taken lightly in the political arena.

One thing is certain: the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines has sent shockwaves throughout the international community and has thrust Kyiv into the spotlight. Whether this is a carefully orchestrated plan or a coincidental twist of events, the implications are vast, and the world will be watching closely as the truth unravels.

Given the circumstances described, it is vital to emphasize that the Nord Stream consortium companies have discreetly engaged with insurance companies to establish their entitlement to compensation that they believe they deserve is almost certain. Nevertheless, we must also prioritize the rights and well-being of individuals globally who have been adversely impacted by the launch of non-traditional inflationary products, the shortages of vital supplies such as food and fuel, resulting in substantial increases in electricity costs that weigh heavily on individuals and economies.

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We are dedicated to providing our loyal readership with high-quality and precise information. We've invested numerous hours conducting rigorous research, obtaining necessary software licenses, and securing venues to share our valuable work. Our blog has demonstrated success in attracting readers who value our dedication to journalism. However, sustaining this excellent standard requires financial backing. That is why we are appealing to our esteemed readers to show solidarity and offer support. By contributing a minimum of £2, you can help sustain our blog and guarantee that we continue to provide you with the most accurate and well-researched articles. We are immensely grateful for any support you can provide. Your assistance will not only cover our operational expenses but also aid us in acquiring new tools and resources to enhance the quality of our content. Every donation, regardless of the amount, greatly assists us in reaching our mission. Your support will enable us to maintain our independence and continue to provide you with the impartial journalism you depend on. Yours sincerely,

The Team

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After the attack: damage to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline/ Foto: blueye / Editions by Germán & Co.

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Investigating the Nord Stream Attack All the Evidence Points To Kyiv

It's a spy thriller that has the potential to change the course of international politics: A year ago, a secret commando blew up the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Since then, investigators have been searching for the perpetrators. The leads they have found are extremely politically sensitive.

SPIEGEL By Liliana Botnariuc, Jürgen Dahlkamp, Jörg Diehl, Matthias Gebauer, Hubert Gude, Roman Höfner, Martin Knobbe, Roman Lehberger, Frederik Obermaier, Jan Puhl, Alexandra Rojkov, Marcel Rosenbach, Fidelius Schmid, Sandra Sperber, Thore Schröder, Thomas Schulz, Gerald Traufetter, Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt und Jean-Pierre Ziegler, Auguat 26, 2023

The Andromeda is a decrepit tub. The sides of the vessel are dented and scraped from too many adventuresome docking maneuvers while the porous pipes in the head exude a fecal stench. The 75 horsepower diesel engine rattles like a tractor and the entire boat creaks and groans as it ponderously changes course. The autopilot is broken. Other sailors hardly take any notice at all of the sloop: Just another worn charter vessel like so many others on the Baltic Sea.

The perfect yacht if you're looking to avoid attracting attention.

According to the findings of the investigation thus far, a commando of divers and explosives specialists chartered the Andromeda almost exactly one year ago and sailed unnoticed from Warnemünde in northern Germany across the Baltic Sea before, on September 26, 2022, blowing holes in three pipes belonging to the natural gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. It was a catastrophic assault on energy supplies, a singular act of sabotage – an attack on Germany.

The operation was aimed at "inflicting lasting damage to the functionality of the state and its facilities. In this sense, this is an attack on the internal security of the state." That's the legal language used by the examining magistrates at the German Federal Court of Justice in the investigation into unknown perpetrators that has been underway since then.

Unknown because – even though countless criminal investigators, intelligence agents and prosecutors from a dozen countries have been searching for those behind the act – it has not yet been determined who did it. Or why. The findings of the investigation thus far, much of them coming from German officials, are strictly confidential. Nothing is to reach the public. On orders from the Chancellery.

"This is the most important investigation of Germany's postwar history because of its potential political implications," says a senior security official. Those within the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) who are responsible for the Nord Stream case, members of Department ST 24, are even prohibited from discussing it with colleagues who aren't part of the probe. Investigators are required to document when and with whom they spoke about which aspect of the case – a requirement that is extremely unusual even at the BKA, Germany's equivalent to the FBI.

There is a lot at stake, that much is clear. If it was a Russian commando, would it be considered an act of war? According to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, an attack on the critical infrastructure of a NATO member state can trigger the mutual defense clause. If it was Ukraine, would that put an end to Germany's ongoing support for the country with tank deliveries or potentially even fighter jets? And what about the Americans? If Washington provided assistance for the attack, might that spell the end of the 75-year trans-Atlantic partnership?

"It immediately raised the question for me: How can we better protect ourselves."

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser

Beyond that, as if more critical questions were needed, the Nord Stream attack has provided a striking blueprint for just how easy it can be to destroy vital infrastructure like pipelines. "It immediately raised the question for me: How can we better protect ourselves," says German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser. "The disruption of critical infrastructure can have an enormous effect on people's lives."

There are plenty of targets for such attacks: internet nodes, oil pipelines, nuclear power plants. One can assume that close attention is being paid in North Korea, Iran and other terrorist states on what exactly will happen now. If the perpetrators are not found, if the sponsors of the attack are not sanctioned, if there is no military reaction – then the deterrents standing in the way of similar attacks in the future will be significantly fewer.

But there are leads. DER SPIEGEL, together with German public broadcaster ZDF, assembled a team of more than two dozen journalists to track them down over a period of six months. Their reporting took them around the globe: from the Republic of Moldova to the United States; from Stockholm via Kyiv and Prague to Romania and France. Much of the information comes from sources who cannot be named. It comes from intelligence agencies, investigators, high ranking officials and politicians. And it comes from people who, in one way or another, are directly linked to suspects.

At some point in the reporting, it became clear that the Andromeda had played a critical role, which is why DER SPIEGEL and ZDF chartered the boat once the criminal technicians from the BKA had released it. Together, six reporters followed the paths of the saboteurs across the Baltic Sea to the site of one of the explosions in international waters.

This voyage on its own did not reveal the secrets of the attack, but it made it easier to understand what may have happened and how – what is plausible and what is not. And why investigators have become so convinced that the leads now point in just one single direction. Towards Ukraine.

That consensus in itself is striking, say others – particularly politicians who believe the attack from the Andromeda may have been a "false flag" operation – an attack intentionally made to look as though it was perpetrated by someone else. All the leads point all-too-obviously towards Kyiv, they say, the clues and evidence seem too perfect to be true. The Americans, the Poles and, especially, the Russians, they say, all had much stronger motives to destroy the pipeline than the Ukrainians.

Still others believe that too many inconsistencies remain. Why did the perpetrators use a chartered sailboat for the operation instead of a military vessel? Why wasn't the Andromeda simply scuttled afterwards? How were two or three divers on their own able to blow up pipelines located at a depth of around 80 meters (260 feet) beneath the waves?

The story of the operation is a preposterous thriller packed full of agents and secret service missions, special operations and commando troops, bad guys and conspiracy theorists. A story in which a dilapidated sailboat on the Baltic Sea plays a central role.

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The Search

It's a chilly January day in Dranske, a town on the northwest tip of the German Baltic Sea island of Rügen. The law enforcement officials show up at 9:45 a.m. for the search, 13 of them from the BKA and Germany's Federal Police, including IT forensic experts, a crime scene investigator and explosives specialists. Their target on this morning are the offices of Mola Yachting GmbH, and they tell the shocked employees that they have a search warrant for a boat that was chartered from the premises. The punishable offense listed on the warrant: "The effectuation of an explosive detonation, anti-constitutional sabotage."

They demand to know where the Andromeda is. The technical chief of Mola tells them it is in winter storage, a few hundred meters away. He leads the group of law enforcement officials along a secluded private road to a former East German army facility, as a confidential memo documents. The Andromeda is sitting on blocks out in the open, with workers sanding down the hull. The search begins at 11:05 a.m. It lasts three days.

The investigators are lucky. Mola didn't clean the boat before storing it for the winter, and the saboteurs were the last people to charter the vessel. A plastic bottle "with apparently Polish labeling" is found next to the sink. Beneath the map table is a single "barefoot shoe." According to the BKA's search log, file number ST 24-240024/22, the officials remove the marine navigation system, a model called Garmin GPSMAP 721.

The sailing yacht Andromeda in the Baltic Sea / Foto: Christian Irrgang / DER SPIEGEL

The next day, the federal police bring two bomb-sniffing dogs onboard; they have to be hoisted up using a kind of winch. They spend more than an hour sniffing around onboard the Andromeda. With success, as forensics experts would later confirm in the lab. On a table belowdecks and even on the toilet, they are able to find substantial traces of octogen, an explosive that also works underwater.

Ever since the search of the ship on those days in January, German investigators have been certain that the Andromeda is the key to the Nord Stream case. Finally, a breakthrough.

Early in the investigation, it seemed that such a breakthrough would never come. The few leads the detectives had all turned up nothing of substance, and they had no clear indications of who the perpetrators might be. But then, a few weeks after the attack, intelligence was passed to the BKA indicating that a sailboat was involved.

To avoid causing concern and attracting unwanted attention, the investigators contacted boat rental companies in Rostock and surroundings one at a time – ultimately zeroing in on Mola and the Andromeda.

It was a rather surprising development for the public at large, particularly given that other scenarios seemed so much more likely: submersibles, specialized ships, at least a motorboat or two. But a single sailboat as the base of operations for the most significant act of sabotage in European history?

German officials were also skeptical at first. The federal public prosecutor general commissioned an expert analysis with a clear question of inquiry: "Whether such an act could be carried out with a completely normal yacht or if a much, much larger vessel was necessary." Such was the formulation used by Lars Otte, the deputy head of the Federal Public Prosecutor's Office, during a confidential, mid-June session of the Internal Affairs Committee of German parliament, the Bundestag. Speaking to the gathered parliamentarians, he stressed: "The assessment of the expert is: Yes, it is also possible with a completely normal yacht of the kind under consideration."

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The Andromeda

On September 6, 2022, the Andromeda was bobbing in the waves along with dozens of other boats in a marina in Rostock's Warnemünde district waiting to be taken out by its next renters. For the last decade, it has been plowing through the Baltic Sea every few days, with a new charter crew at the helm. The Andromeda is a Bavaria 50 Cruiser, built in Bavaria in 2012 and frequently belittled by sailors as the "Škoda of the seas." Not exactly elegant, but practical, a bit like a floating station wagon: 15.57 meters (roughly 51 feet) long and a beam of 4.61 meters, it is rather affordable for its size.

Belowdecks, it has five small cabins with space for a maximum of 12 people, if you don't mind a bit of crowding. The double berths are hardly 1.2 meters wide. By contrast, though, there is plenty of storage space and the kitchenette is relatively spacious, complete with a gas stove and a banquette surrounding a varnished dining table. A swimming platform can be folded down from the stern, making it easy to take a dip. It is ideal for divers with their heavy equipment.

The marina Hohe Düne is located around 10 kilometers from the Rostock city center as the crow flies, a strangely lifeless place with a giant wellness hotel and a solitary pizzeria. Long piers wind their way out into the water to 920 morages, with a small wooden structure right in the middle of Pier G. Those who have chartered a yacht with Mola Yachting must register here, complete with identification, sport boat license and a 1,500-euro deposit.

On September 6, according to reporting by DER SPIEGEL and ZDF, a sailing crew checked in at the Mola shack in the early afternoon to take out the Andromeda. The charter fee had apparently been paid by a Warsaw travel agency called Feeria Lwowa, a company with no website or telephone number.

According to the Polish commercial registry, the company is headed by a 54-year-old woman named Nataliia A., who lives in Kyiv. She completed a course of study in early childhood education, but has no recognizable experience in the tourism industry. She has a Ukrainian mobile phone number. If you call it, a woman answers – before immediately hanging up once you identify yourself as a journalist. A few days later, a Ukrainian "police officer" called back, threatening the reporter with charges of "stalking," citing a rather flimsy justification. Feeria Lwowa's address in Warsaw likewise leads nowhere. There is no office and there are no local employees. It looks as though it is a shell company.

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Who Is Ştefan Marcu?

And something else would soon prove to be extremely challenging for investigators: When the saboteurs showed up at the Mola shack to check in for their rental of the Andromeda, they apparently presented a Romanian passport. It had been issued to a certain Ştefan Marcu, as official documents indicate. But who was he? Did he have anything to do with the attack?

Marcu opens the steel gate to his property wearing shorts and flipflops. It is the middle of July, a hot day in Goianul Nou, a village in Moldova just north of the capital of Chiᶊinǎu. The Ukrainian border isn't even 50 kilometers from here.

Ştefan Marcu is a sturdily built man with a deep tan and a black moustache, an engineer with his own company. A team from DER SPIEGEL and ZDF along with reporters from the investigative networks Rise Moldova and OCCRP managed to track him down. The two-story home where he lives with his family is the most attractive one on their street. Marcu stares down at the note the reporters show him, bearing the number 055227683.

He recognizes it immediately. He says he is a citizen of Moldova, but that the number belonged to his old Romanian passport, which expired the previous October. The last time he used the passport, he says, was in 2019 for a vacation in Romania and then, a couple months after that, for a trip to Bulgaria. He says he has no idea how his name got mixed up in the pipeline story. It's the first time he's heard about it, he insists. Aside from the reporters, nobody else has asked him about it, he says, no police officers and no intelligence agents.

After he received his new passport, he says, the woman at the office invalidated his old one. "When I got home, I burned it. I threw it in the oven," Marcu says.

But the data from his passport, officials believe, seems to have been used to produce another document, a falsified passport that was then used to charter the Andromeda. Complete with a new photo. The photo, though, is not of Ştefan Marcu, the 60-year-old from Moldova, but of a young man in his mid-20s with a penetrating gaze and military haircut. The man in the photo is very likely Valeri K. from the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. He apparently serves in the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian army.

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A Stop in Northern Rügen

It's not possible to determine precisely when the saboteurs left the Hohe Düne marina. But the very next day, on September 7, they made their first stop just 60 nautical miles away in Wiek, a tiny harbor on the north coast of Rügen. Under normal circumstances, it is part of a long but idyllic sailing trip along the coast of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, past the Fischland-Darss peninsula and the island of Hiddensee.

It takes the team of reporters around 12 hours to sail this first leg of the journey, in pleasant, mid-July weather and calm seas. For most of that distance, the Andromeda is propelled by its motor, at a relatively constant clip of seven to eight knots. In a strong wind, when the mainsail can be set on the 22-meter-tall mast along with the jib, the ship can reach speeds of 10 to 11 knots.

In contrast to Warnemünde, Wiek is a solitary, isolated place, vastly different from the busy Rostock marina. Those wishing to load up their boat in Rostock have to push a handcart back and forth across long piers past dozens of other boats and crews. In Wiek, though, it is possible to drive a delivery truck right up to one of the few moorages that are large enough for a vessel the size of Andromeda. When the skipper of the DER SPIEGEL/ZDF voyage called ahead to reserve a moorage, the harbormaster asked: "Do you want the same spot as the terrorists?"

Still, during our visit, marina staffers prove reluctant to talk about the Andromeda and its stopover, at least not on the record. One of the workers who has clear memories of the sailboat's layover and who dealt directly with the crew says that the people on board seemed physically fit and familiar with each other, and that they spoke in a language he was unfamiliar with.

The crew was made up of five men and a woman, says the harbormaster, who filled up the fuel tank of the Andromeda for the saboteurs. That was during the boat's second stop in Wiek, on the return trip to Warnemünde. He wrote down the amount paid for the diesel in a black notebook, the same one he uses to record the fuel purchased by the crew of reporters.

The harbormaster flips back through his notebook and finds two entries that may have been for the diesel purchased by the team of saboteurs: one for 665.03 euros and one for 1,309.43 euros on September 22 and 23, respectively. In addition to filling the boat's tank, though, he recalls, he was also asked to fill up several canisters. One of the men paid for the fuel in cash, pulling a striking number of large-denomination euro bills out of his pocket to do so – but he didn't leave a tip.

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On the Pea Islands

After the first stopover in Wiek, the Andromeda disappeared for an extended period. With the help of a meter, investigators have determined that the crew didn't sail the ship and used the motor instead. Around 10 days later, the vessel apparently reappeared off the island of Christiansø, not much more than a rock jutting out of the waves near Bornholm, so small that it is sometimes called Pea Island. The port lies attractively below defensive fortifications built in 1684. The island, located near the easternmost point of Denmark, is home to hardly more than 100 residents, but it is a popular destination for day-trippers who sail over from the vacation island of Bornholm for a lunch of kryddersild.

It seems safe to say, though, that the saboteurs weren't there for the pickled herring: Christiansø is the nearest port to the site of the detonations. And a chartered sailboat doesn't stand out at all, with almost 50 vessels sailing in and out on busy days, says Søren Andersen. The chief of administration for the tiny islands, Anderson is sitting among portraits of the Danish royal family in a white-plastered building with a green door made of wood and a sign reading "Politi," police. "In December, the Danish police requested us to share all the port data" from September 16 to 18, 2022, says Anderson.

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An Inspection in Poland

That was when the commando on board the Andromeda made a brief detour – directly south to Poland. On September 19, exactly one week before the pipelines were blown up, the Andromeda docked in Kołobrzeg, Poland, a Baltic Sea resort known for its saline springs and usually packed with tourists during the summer months. And with sailboats. The Andromeda only stayed for 12 hours.

Poland was always one of the most adamant opponents of Nord Stream 2 and vociferously demanded over the course of several years that the project be stopped. Warsaw long viewed Germany's dependence on energy from Moscow as an existential threat. It would be fair to say that Poland had a strong interest in eliminating this threat to its security right off its coastline once and for all.

In May, German investigators traveled to Poland for a "meeting at the level of the prosecutor's offices conducting the investigation," as it would later be described. One question addressed during that meeting was whether the saboteurs had received any support while in Kołobrzeg, either of a material nature, or in the form of personnel. They wanted to know if the port may have been used as a logistical hub.

The responsible public prosecutor in Danzig, from the department for organized crime and corruption, vehemently denies such a scenario when asked. "There is absolutely no evidence for the involvement of a Polish citizen in the detonation of the Nord Stream pipelines," he says. "The investigation has found that during the stay in a Polish harbor, no objects were loaded onto the yacht." In fact, he notes, "the crew of the yacht was checked by Polish border control officials" because they had raised suspicions. Perhaps because of the falsified documents used by the crew? Whatever triggered their concerns, the border control officials made a note of the personal information they had presented.

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Image by Germán & Co.

The Pipelines

By September 20, the Andromeda had already departed from Kołobrzeg. By this time, the explosives had likely already been laid and equipped with timed detonators. Christiansø, the sailboat's previous port of call, is, in any case, the closest to the main detonation site. It is located just 44 kilometers – less than a three-hour voyage to the northeast – from the coordinates 55° 32' 27" north, 15° 46′ 28.2" east.

The Baltic Sea gets rather lonely to the east of the Pea Islands. There are fewer ferries, fewer tankers and not too many sailboats either. For miles around, there is nothing but water and sky.

There is, however, something to see on the sonar, some 80 meters below: Four pipes, each with an inside diameter of 1.15 meters, wrapped in up to 11 centimeters of concrete which keeps them on the sea floor, and a layer to protect against corrosion. Beneath that is four centimeters of steel and a coating to ensure the natural gas flows more freely on its long journey from Russia to Germany.

Nordstream 1 begins in the Russian town of Vyborg and runs through the Gulf of Finland and crosses beneath the Baltic Sea before reaching the German town of Lubmin, located near the university town of Greifswald.

The double pipeline is 1,224 kilometers long and consists of 200,000 individual segments, most of which were produced by Europipe in Mühlheim, Germany. During construction, 15 freight trains per week rolled into the ferry port of Sassnitz, where the pipe segments were loaded onto a ship. The project's price tag was 7.4 billion euros, with most of it paid for, directly or indirectly, by the Russian state.

It went into operation in 2012, sending almost 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas from the Russian fields Yuzhno-Russkoye and Shtokman, located on the Barents Sea, to Germany. In 2018, the pipeline accounted for 16 percent of all European Union natural gas imports. Nord Stream 1 was one of the most important pipelines in the world.

In spring 2018, dredgers again sailed into the Bay of Greifswald to make way for Nord Stream 2, also a double pipeline. This one starts a bit further to the south, in the town of Ust-Luga, located in the Leningrad Oblast – but most of it runs parallel to the first pipeline. It was planned to carry 55 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas per year to Germany. Taken together, the two pipelines were able to transport far more than Germany consumed each year. Most Germans were in favor of the new pipeline project, blinded to their country's growing dependency on Moscow by the cheap price of Russian gas. A 2021 survey among supporters of all political parties found that an average of 75 percent of Germans were in favor of Nord Stream 2.

Security policy experts and many of Germany's international allies, by contrast, were aghast. Nord Stream 1 had already tied Germany far too closely to Russia, they felt. And now Berlin wanted to import even more energy from Vladimir Putin's empire? The Americans, in particular, were vocal about their opposition to the project. Indeed, Washington thought Nord Stream 2 was so dangerous that it warned Germany that its completion would significantly harm U.S.-German relations.

Ukraine was also radically opposed to the new pipeline. Significant quantities of Russian natural gas flowed to Western Europe through overland pipelines across Ukrainian territory. A second pipeline beneath the Baltic would make parts of the Ukrainian pipeline network obsolete. Kyiv saw Nord Stream as a direct threat to the country.

In September 2021, Nord Stream 2 was completed, but it did not go into operation. And a few months later, the Russian invasion of Ukraine put an end to the political debate – and left Germany scrambling to free itself from dependency on energy imports from Russia as quickly as possible. The initial plan called for continuing to import natural gas through Nord Stream 1 for a time, but the second pipeline was essentially dead in the water.

For the time being, at least. But politics can be fickle, consumers and industry have a fondness for cheap energy and Putin wouldn't be around forever, would he? The four pipes lay on the seabed, ready to be put back in use once that time came.

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Explosions in the Baltic Sea

At 2:03 a.m. on September 26, a blast wave rippled through the bed of the Baltic Sea, powerful enough to be recorded by Swedish seismographs hundreds of kilometers away. The welded seam between two segments of pipe A of Nord Stream 2 was shredded. It was a precise cleavage, likely caused by a relatively small amount of perfectly placed specialized explosive material: octogen. Exactly the same explosive of which forensics experts would later find traces onboard the Andromeda. The explosion initially ripped a roughly 1.5-meter gap in the pipe, but the gas gushing out enlarged the leak.

Seventeen hours later, at 7:04 p.m., there was another blast wave, this time 75 kilometers to the north. It was much stronger, and there were several explosions. Above water, the muffled blast could be heard several kilometers away. This time, both pipes belonging to Nord Stream 1 were destroyed: a 200-meter section of pipe A and a 290-meter segment of pipe B. A 3-D visualization based on underwater camera footage and sonar readings shows deep craters, piles of rubble and bits of pipeline sticking up diagonally from the seafloor.

Initially, nobody knew just how dramatic the situation was, not even the operators of the two pipelines, Nord Stream AG and Nord Stream 2 AG. Both companies are majority owned by the Russian natural gas giant Gazprom. Initially, they only registered a drastic fall in pipeline pressure, but technicians were immediately concerned that something might by wrong, as were military representatives in the region. On the morning of September 27, a Danish F-16 fighter discovered strange bubbles on the surface of the water, and the Danish military published the first images that afternoon: Natural gas rising up from the bottom of the Baltic had formed circles of bubbles up to 1,000 meters across on the water's surface not far from Bornholm.

It's not yet possible to say with complete certainty how the perpetrators went about their business. But the findings of the international investigation make it possible to reconstruct much of what took place. Data from geological monitoring stations, videos and sonar data from the seafloor provide additional clues. That data comes from a Swedish camera team and from Greenpeace, both of which launched their own surveys using underwater devices. For experts, the publicly available information paint a largely consistent picture, according to which the group of saboteurs was likely made up of six people – five men and a woman. Likely a captain, divers, dive assistants and perhaps a doctor.

According to former military and professional divers, the operation would have been possible, though challenging, with such a team. "It's pitch black down there, cold, and there are currents," says Tom Kürten. As a technical diver and expedition leader, he has been inspecting wrecks on the bottom of the Baltic Sea for many years. With the correct equipment, it is possible to dive to depths of 100 meters or more, and he believes it would be impossible to locate the pipelines without technical assistance. Indeed, with a small DownScan, a sonar device, it would be relatively simple, he says. And once the spot has been identified, all you have to do, he says, is throw a "shot line" overboard, a rope with a weight on the end that guides the divers into the depths.

For challenging dives, Kürten also uses a rebreather, which recycles exhaled air and replenishes it with oxygen for the next breath. The advantage is that no tanks are needed, and such devices also produce fewer bubbles, which can be helpful if you are seeking to avoid unwanted attention. Still, such an operation takes time. For 20 minutes spent working at a depth of 80 meters, a total of three hours of dive time is necessary, Kürten estimates. During the ascent, decompression stops are vital so that the body can adjust from the high pressure on the seafloor to the lower pressure at the surface. It's a rather complex undertaking, but certainly possible during a long trip.

The pipe tore open along a length of approximately 100 meters. A so-called "cutter charge" was likely used, directly over a welded joint.

Later, when German investigators undertook a closer examination of the detonation sites, specialists from the maritime division of the German special forces unit GSG 9 dived down to take a look.

However you look at it, the operation could not have been performed by amateur divers – nor by hobby sailors. When the team of reporters in the Andromeda arrived at the site above where the explosions took place, a force 5 or 6 wind was blowing, it was raining, and the swells were significant. Standard Baltic Sea weather, in other words – in which it is difficult to keep a sailboat in one spot. According to weather data, mid-September 2022 was similar for several days, though it was calmer both before and afterward.

Explosives expert Fritz Pfeiffer produced an expert opinion for Greenpeace regarding the potential destructive power of the detonations, since the environmental group was interested in knowing how much damage had really been done to the pipeline and what that might mean for the environment.

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An Operation Straight Out of Hollywood

On underwater images of Nord Stream 1, Pfeiffer identified craters that he believes were created by large amounts of explosives detonating next to the pipeline. Investigators, though, think that a total of less than 100 kilograms of explosives were used and that the sudden release of the highly pressurized natural gas caused much of the damage.

Not far from the long stretches of destroyed pipes belonging to Nord Stream 1, the A pipe of Nord Stream 2 was attacked a second time – the same line that had already been severed 17 hours earlier further to the south. The pipe tore open along a length of approximately 100 meters. A so-called "cutter charge" was likely used, directly over a welded joint. Pfeiffer believes that just eight to 12 kilograms of octogen would have been necessary for such a detonation.

The B pipe of Nord Stream 2, meanwhile, wasn't harmed at all – and could easily be put into use even today. But why did the perpetrators leave one of the four pipes undamaged? There are some indications that the saboteurs confused the A and B pipes of Nord Stream 2 in the darkness and unintentionally attacked the same pipe twice.

Whatever the case, experts seem to agree on one salient fact: specialized submarines or remote-controlled submersibles were not necessary for the operation. But there are several questions to which no answer has yet been found. How were the bombs detonated? Why did so much time pass between the first explosion and the three that followed? Some experts believe that they might have had difficulties in activating the explosives – either via a delayed detonator or a remote detonator.

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The Warnings

Perhaps the attack could have been prevented in the first place. It didn't come as a complete surprise, after all. It had been announced several months beforehand, in detail. But the warning wasn't taken seriously enough in the right places.

An encrypted, strictly confidential dispatch from an allied intelligence agency was received by the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND – Germany's foreign intelligence agency) in June 2022. Such dispatches are hardly an anomaly, but this one contained a clear warning. It was from the Netherlands' military intelligence agency, which goes by the initials MIVD and is well known for its expertise in Russian cyberwarfare techniques. On this occasion, though, the agency's alarming information seemed to have come from a human asset in Kyiv.

The Dutch also informed the CIA – which, just to be on the safe side, also forwarded it onward to the Germans.

The confidential dispatch sketched out an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines. The plan called for six commando soldiers from the Ukraine, concealed with fake identities, to charter a boat, dive down to the bottom of the Baltic Sea with specialized equipment and blow up the pipes. According to the information, the men were under the command of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had apparently not been informed of the plan. The attack was apparently planned to take place during the NATO exercise Baltops on the Baltic Sea. The content of the secret dispatch was originally reported on by the Washington Post in early June.

The BND forwarded the warning to the Chancellery, but at German government headquarters, it was deemed irrelevant. After all, it only arrived at the Chancellery after the NATO maneuver had come to an end, and nothing had happened. That is why nobody sounded the alarm, says one of the few people who learned of the warning when it arrived. Most German security officials believed the information contained in the dispatch was inaccurate.

As a result, no protective measures were introduced, no further investigations were undertaken and no preparations were made to potentially prevent an attack at a later point in time. The Federal Police, the German Navy and the antiterrorism centers never even learned of the warning.

Nor did the German agency responsible for the oversight of Nord Stream.

In the early morning hours of September 26, Klaus Müller, president of the Federal Network Agency, received a telephone call. His agency is responsible for regulating Germany's electricity and natural gas grids. Christoph von dem Bussche, head of the company Cascade, which operates 3,200 kilometers of Germany's natural gas pipelines, was on the other end of the line. According to sources in Berlin, Bussche told Müller that one of the Nord Stream pipelines had just experienced an inexplicable loss of pressure.

Washington carefully approached Kyiv with a clear message: Don't do it! Abort the operation!

The head of the Federal Network Agency must have immediately realized how important that phone call was. He called German Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

Habeck, who is also the vice chancellor, was the first cabinet member to learn of the attack on the pipelines. Sources indicate that he was just as surprised as Müller had been. Neither of them had apparently known about the warning that had been received three months before.

It had also apparently not been discussed in the German Security Cabinet, the smaller group of ministers that has been meeting regularly in the Chancellery since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Müller, though, is the first person who should have been informed of increased risks posed to the pipeline: He is in charge of ensuring the smooth operation of Germany's numerous pipelines, and of protecting them if need be.

The U.S., by contrast, apparently sprang into action in summer 2022, even if the Americans didn't initially trust the Netherlands' source. Washington carefully approached Kyiv with a clear message: Don't do it! Abort the operation! The German weekly newspaper Die Zeit and public broadcaster ARD were the first to report on Washington's warning to Kyiv. But the message from the American's apparently wasn't taken seriously. Perhaps Washington lacked a certain amount of credibility, particularly given how clear they had made it in the past that they were deeply opposed to the gas pipelines connecting Germany and Russia.

Was there perhaps even more information that wasn't passed along? Did the well-informed Dutch military intelligence agents know even more than they shared, such as who was to be on board the ship and perhaps even from which Ukrainian unit they came from? If so, that information is no longer available. Leaving the German investigators to assemble the puzzle pieces on their own.

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Searching For Clues In Ukraine

One lead stems from the falsified passport of Ştefan Marcu. And from the man whose photo is apparently on that document: Valeri K.

Back in June, Lars Otte, the federal prosecutor, told members of the Internal Affairs Committee at the Bundestag that investigators had been able to "almost certainly identify a person who may have taken part in the operation."

The lead takes us to a large city in central Ukraine, to an abominable Soviet-era prefab residential building on the outskirts of Dnipro. The structure has eight, not entirely rosy-smelling entrances, a bar and a minimarket called Stella on the ground floor.

On the third floor of the first entrance is an apartment that is registered to the father of Valeri K. He, too, is called Valeri – and both are members of the military, say neighbors.

Nobody opens the door, despite extended knocking. Instead, the neighbors peek out, an elderly married couple. They say that the Valeris actually live in the building next door and that they only rent out this apartment. The younger Valeri K.'s grandmother, the couple says, used to work at Stella, and suggested dropping by there.

It's stuffy inside the store, and smells of dried fish. The saleswoman says that the grandmother is now the janitor of the neighboring building. Five minutes later, Lyubov K. sets aside her broom and sits down on a bench. She's a small woman with red-dyed hair and speaks Russian. She says she doesn't want to speak with the press, but remains seated on the bench. When asked if her grandson Valeri is in the army, she says "yes." What does he do there? "I don't know." She does say, though, that her son and grandson had only been called up a few months before. The conversation remains brief, ending with the grandmother claiming that her grandson couldn't have been onboard the Andromeda because he doesn't have a passport and is unable to travel overseas.

Another neighbor, a retiree with gray curls and wearing a blue shirt, is more talkative. Her son, she says, went to school with Valeri senior and they also worked together. The two of them had taken a job at a shipyard in Turkey several years before.

Then, the neighbor says, Valeri senior embarked on a completely different career path, smuggling migrants across the Mediterranean on a sailboat. But the operation was busted and the Ukrainians involved arrested. The neighbor says that the younger Valeri K. wasn't involved though.

The neighbors don't have much to say about him. His presence on social media is also limited, apparently limited to VK, a Facebook clone that is popular in Ukraine and Russia.

The most striking thing about the younger Valeri K. is that he is a follower of the openly nationalist youth organization VGO Sokil. It offers young men training in shooting and diving.

His most recent active VK profile is under the name "Chechen from Dnipro," and it is linked to a telephone number. If you enter the number into an App like Getcontact, you can see the names under which the number is saved in other people's contact lists. Among the names for Valeri's number is: "K. 93rd Brigade."

There are also leads to his long-time girlfriend Inna H. The two apparently aren't together any longer, but they have a son together. The mother and child no longer live in Dnipro, but in the German city Frankfurt an der Oder.

They live in a gray housing block just a few hundred meters from the Polish border. There are a number of Ukrainian refugees living in the building, including several relatives of Valeri K.: Inna H., the ex-girlfriend who is the mother of his son, his younger sister Anya K. and apparently also his maternal grandmother Tetyana H.

In May, they received a visit from the police, who searched the apartment. A DNA sample from Valeri K.'s son was then compared with traces found on the Andromeda. But there was no match.

Inna H. lives on one of the upper floors of the apartment block, but the door is opened by an elderly lady when a team of reporters from DER SPIEGEL rings the doorbell. She doesn't give her name, but she looks like the grandmother, Tetjana H., in photos. She doesn't want to talk to journalists.

If people have something to say, she says, they should discuss it with the authorities.

Asked about the accusations against Valeri K., she says only: "We are a simple family, the Germans saved us. Why would we want to do them any harm?"

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Little Doubt

Officially, politicians and the Office of the Federal Prosecutor are still holding back with any conclusions. Currently, it is not possible to say "this was state-controlled by Ukraine," Federal Prosecutor Otte says. "As far as that is concerned, the investigation is ongoing, much of it still undercover."

Behind the scenes, though, you get clearer statements. Investigators from the BKA, the Federal Police and the Office of the Federal Prosecutor have few remaining doubts that a Ukrainian commando was responsible for blowing up the pipelines. A striking number of clues point to Ukraine, they say. They start with Valeri K., IP addresses of mails and phone calls, location data and numerous other, even clearer clues that have been kept secret so far. One top official says that far more is known than has been stated publicly. According to DER SPIEGEL's sources, investigators are certain that the saboteurs were in Ukraine before and after the attack. Indeed, the overall picture formed by the puzzles pieces of technical information has grown quite clear.

And the possible motives also seem clear to international security circles: The aim, they says, was to deprive Moscow of an important source of revenue for financing the war against Ukraine. And at the same time to deprive Putin once and for all of his most important instrument of blackmail against the German government.

But crucial questions remain unanswered. From how high up was the attack ordered and who knew about it? Was it an intelligence operation that the political leadership in Kyiv learned about only later? Or was it the product of a commando unit acting on its own? Or was it a military operation in which the Ukrainian General Staff was involved? Intelligence experts and security policy experts, however, consider it unlikely that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was in on it: In cases of sabotage, the political leadership is often deliberately kept in the dark so that they can plausibly deny any knowledge later on. In early June, when the first indications of Kyiv's possible involvement came to light, Zelenskyy strongly denied it. "I am president and I give orders accordingly," he said. "Nothing of the sort has been done by Ukraine. I would never act in such a manner."

In any case, it is difficult terrain for the BKA, not only politically, but also in practical terms. The German criminal investigators cannot conduct investigations in Ukraine, and it isn't expected that Kyiv will provide much support. The German authorities have also shied away from submitting a request to Ukraine for legal assistance because doing so would require that they reveal what they know. That could provide Ukraine the opportunity to cover up any traces that may exist and to protect the people responsible. Asked whether there will be arrest warrants one day, an official familiar with the events replies: "We need a lot of patience."

"Everyone is shying away from the question of consequences."

Senior German government official

A Ukrainian commando carried out an attack on Germany's critical infrastructure? Officials at the Chancellery in Berlin have been discussing intensively for months how to deal with the sensitive findings of the investigation. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also been debating possible consequences with his closest advisers. Of course, there aren't many options available to them. A change of course in foreign policy or the idea of confronting Kyiv with the findings seems unthinkable.

The situation changed in March, when the New York Times, Germany's Die Zeit and Berlin-based public broadcaster RBB first reported on the evidence pointing to Ukraine. A little bit later, the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper also published its own investigative report. Soon after, Jens Plötner, an adviser to the chancellor, openly addressed the articles in a phone call with Andriy Yermak, one of President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy's closest confidants. The answer was clear: Yermak apparently assured the Germans that the Ukrainian government had not been involved in the plot and that no one from the security apparatus knew who was behind it.

Few in Berlin want to think right now about what action should be taken if the involvement of Ukrainian state agencies is proven. On the one hand, Germany couldn't simply brush off such a serious crime. But suspending support for Ukraine in its war against Russia also wouldn't be an option. "Everyone is shying away from the question of consequences," says one member of parliament with a party that is a member of the German government coalition.

The fact that politicians who normally might at least speak off the record are remaining silent and simply ignoring inquiries is an indicator of just how delicate the situation is. Inquiries about the situation regarding the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline - in ministries, at party headquarters and in parliamentary offices - as to how it is being discussed within the parties or whether the government is already thinking through scenarios for the eventuality that the Ukrainian leadership knew about the operation, go nowhere.

"No," says Irene Mihalic, the first parliamentary secretary of the Green Party, there was almost no discussion about the issue before the summer legislative recess. She says her party will wait for the outcome of the investigations, and that anything else would be pure speculation.

In fact, the information available to members of parliament in this case is also extremely thin. On the one hand, the federal public prosecutor naturally provides only scant information about ongoing investigations. More importantly, the federal government is keeping all the findings under wraps. Even most members of Scholz's cabinet as well as the deputies in the Parliamentary Control Committee, which is tasked with oversight of the work of the intelligence services, don't know much more than what is publicly reported about the attack.

The gatekeeper for information flows sits on the seventh floor of the Chancellery, diagonally opposite Olaf Scholz. Wolfgang Schmidt, the chancellor's closest confidant and head of the Chancellery, maintains intensive contact with the investigators. He is also briefed each week by the intelligence services and is happy to pick up the phone to make inquiries of his own. When asked, Schmidt says he doesn't want to comment on the Nord Stream case.

Sources within the investigation say they have been amazed by the level of interest the Chancellery head has shown in the progress of the proceedings. And at the same time, how little Berlin seems to care about shedding light on this unprecedented attack on the backbone of Germany's energy supply as quickly as possible.

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The Investigators

The BKA has three main offices. One is in Wiesbaden, where investigators deal with organized crime, narcotics offenses, targeted searches and such things. Another, in Berlin, provides headquarters for its experts on issues including Islamist terrorism. And then there's the one in Meckenheim near Bonn, in a gray 1970s, box-like building surrounded by orchards and fields, with red-tiled hallways inside. This is the place where one of the most sensational crimes in German criminal history is to be solved, and it looks like some random rural school.

This is where the BKA's State Protection Department is housed, where the investigators tasked with solving politically motivated crimes work: offenses like attacks, assassinations, espionage and sabotage. In the past, the office investigated the Red Army Faction, domestic left-wing radicals who perpetrated numerous terror attacks in Germany in the 1970s. And the National Socialist Underground, a neo-Nazi cell that killed immigrants, mostly of Turkish descent, across Germany in the early 2000s. More recently, they have been focused on the Reichsbürger movement of militant protesters who deny postwar Germany's right to exists. Now it has the Nord Stream saboteurs in its crosshairs.

The responsible department is ST 24: State Terrorism. One might assume that dozens of criminologists are working here around the clock researching, searching, and following up on every little lead.

For a time, hundreds of BKA agents were investigating the right-wing extremist madmen around Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss, who had been planning an absurd coup attempt to topple the German government. But only a handful of investigators at most have been assigned to work on the Nord Stream case on a full-time basis.

Sources in Berlin say that a small, dedicated group of skilled investigators should be sufficient. Directing more staff wouldn't be of much use anyway, they argue, since there are no large groups to observe and they aren't allowed to conduct investigations in other countries. And if necessary, more BKA people could also be called in addition to support from the Federal Police.

But the perception among investigators is that the will to solve the case is not particularly pronounced in the capital. Politically, it is easier to live with what happened if it remains unclear who is behind the attacks. The process is not being hindered, but neither is there much support from the overarching government ministries. Meanwhile, it is clear to career-oriented ministry officials that there is no glory to be had with this case. If only because the culprits will likely never have to answer for their actions in Germany. Even if they could be identified, it's very unlikely they would be extradited.

So Berlin is looking away, and that is definitely being registered in agencies where staff is constantly in short supply and procedures have to be prioritized. All of which leads to the investigation falling down the priority list.

Regardless, the BKA unit is led by a chief inspector, an experienced veteran in his mid-50s who is considered a shrewd criminologist by his colleagues.

The German investigators frequently exchange information with officials in Sweden and Poland, and traveled to Warsaw and Stockholm in the spring. However, no agreement has been reached on forming a joint procedure, called a Joined Investigation Team in legal vernacular. Ostensibly because the intelligence agencies involved don't want to be constantly sharing their information internationally.

Still, sources in all three countries involved say there is tight coordination. Swedish Nord Stream experts are acting more assertively than the Germans, and it is possible charges could be filed before the end of the year. Mats Ljungqvist, the Swedish prosecutor responsible for the investigation there, recently told Radio Sweden that he believes they may be approaching the final phase of the case.

International investigators and agents also say that all the intelligence has been pointing in one direction: towards Kyiv. At least those who are familiar with the evidence and clues.

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Alternative Scenarios

In the rest of the world, however, alternative scenarios are still circulating – some spurred by half-baked intelligence, some by amateur military experts and others driven more by domestic political or geostrategic interests.

The American journalist Seymour Hersh, 86, caused quite a stir, for example, when he accused the U.S. of committing the attacks. He claimed that a Norwegian naval vessel had secretly transported American combat divers into the Baltic Sea. The alleged motive: To make sure Russia would no longer be in a position to blackmail Germany with gas supplies. But Hersh didn't provide any evidence to back up his theory and essential parts of his article later turned out to be false. Hersh justified his reporting by saying that the information had been supplied to him by a source in Washington. The Russian government, though, was delighted and vaunted the baseless story as proof that the U.S. was the real warmonger.

Still others claim that such theories are extremely convenient for the Russians because they distract from the fact that they themselves are the perpetrators. As evidence of this, Russian ship movements in the Baltic Sea, reconstructed by journalists from the public broadcasters of Denmark (DR), Sweden (SVT), Finland (Yle) and Norway (NRK), are frequently cited.

On the night of September 21-22, for example, the Danish Navy encountered a conspicuous number of Russian ships east of Bornholm in exactly the area of the later blasts. The automatic identification systems on the boats had been turned off and they were traveling as unidentifiable "dark ships."

The 86-meter-long Sibiryakov, a hydrographic research vessel equipped for underwater operations, was also in the area. According to experts, it often accompanies Russian submarines on their secret test dives in the Baltic Sea. Some micro-submarines also have grabber arms that can be used to perform underwater work. Tasks like placing explosive charges.

But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline? Especially given that they could simply block it at the push of a button? Why deprive yourself of a lever that still might be useful - at least a few years down the road – to resume blackmailing a Germany that is starving for cheap energy?

It's possible to find reasons, but they are all rather convoluted. One theory holds that Moscow wanted to save itself billions in damages after it violated its own contracts by cutting off promised Nord Stream gas supplies to Germany. If, on the other hand, the pipeline had been blown up by unknown persons, it would be considered a force majeure.

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Was It the Russians After All?

The next theory, somewhat more widespread even among Berlin politicians, goes like this: Russia destroyed the pipelines with the aim of later blaming it on the Ukrainians in a way that could undermine Western support for Kyiv. The Andromeda and all other evidence pointing to Ukraine was planted by Russian agents, they say, to throw the Europeans off the scent.

The theory that it was a "false flag" operation performed by the Russians is considered probable by Roderich Kiesewetter, the security and defense policy point man for the center-right Christian Democrats in the Bundestag. Kiesewetter says it would totally fit with Russia's style to pull off an operation like that perfectly and make it look like the trail leads to Kyiv.

"Of course, we're following up on those leads as well. But we don't have any evidence or confirmation of that so far."

Public prosecutor Lars Otte

Conversely, many other intelligence experts consider it highly improbable that Russian agents, who have show a predilection in recent years of more rustic methods - such as brazen and easily exposed political assassinations - could execute such a complex deception maneuver flawlessly.

German Federal Prosecutor Otte emphasized to the Bundestag's Internal Affairs Committee that they were definitely considering the "working hypothesis" that "state-directed perpetrators from Russia" could be responsible. "Of course, we're following up on those leads as well," Otte said. "But we don't have any evidence or confirmation of that so far."

Agents tend to believe there is a different, more straightforward explanation for the Russian Navy's clear presence in the Baltic last late summer: They suspect that Moscow, like the Dutch and the CIA, was not unaware of the plans to attack Nord Stream, and that the ships were there to patrol along the pipeline to protect it from the expected sabotage.

Particularly given that Ukraine apparently had plans to attack another Russian gas pipeline. Sources within the international security scene say that a sabotage squad had plans to attack and destroy the Turkstream pipelines running from Russia through the Black Sea to Turkey. A corresponding tip-off had also reached the German government together with the first warnings of an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines

It is unclear why there was no follow-up on the suspected plot to attack Turkstream.

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The Agents

One man who should be in a position to know could be found standing in the ballroom of the British Embassy in Prague on a hot July morning. Sir Richard Moore, the head of Britain's MI6 intelligence service, had arrived to discuss the global situation with selected intelligence colleagues and diplomats.

Moore is probably one of the best-informed men in the world. If anyone can gain access to all the available data about what happened in the run-up to the explosions under the Baltic Sea, it's the man with the gray crew cut and narrow reading glasses. DER SPIEGEL was able to ask him a quick question about the Nord Stream attack.

It is one of the few official, and thus mentionable encounters with an intelligence service for this story. Another takes place under similar conditions with CIA head William Burns in the posh American ski resort Aspen in the Rocky Mountains. Each year, the Who's Who of the U.S. security apparatus gathers there for the Aspen Security Forum. Burns was joined by senior U.S. armed forces officials and national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

When they spoke on the record on the subject of Nord Stream, the top intelligence officials were monosyllabic. Moore said in Prague that he didn't want to interfere in the investigations of Germany, Denmark and Sweden. And in Aspen, when asked about Nord Stream, only security adviser Sullivan responded, and briefly at that. "As you know, there is an ongoing investigation in multiple countries in Europe," Sullivan said coolly. "We'll let that play out, we'll let them lay out the results of the investigation."

The British MI6 chief at least provided a bit of context. He said that we have to be prepared for the fact that underwater attacks are now part of the arsenal of modern warfare. His service therefore informs the British government about its own Achilles' heels, adding that there are quite a few of them. "Seabed warfare," as such underwater operations are called in military jargon, is not just about pipelines for oil and gas. The power lines of offshore wind farms and especially undersea internet cables are also targets – and potentially even easier to destroy since you don't need explosives, just the right tools.

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Germany's Response

On September 23, three days before the explosive charges went off, the Andromeda returned to its home port in Rostock. The saboteurs, it is assumed, packed their things, handed in the boat key at the Mola Yachting charter base and walked away via Pier G.

It was one of the most amazing twists in this criminal case, at least at first glance. Why not just sink the boat, including the explosive residue and DNA traces?

Presumably because the investigators would have the been on the trail of the commando much sooner than three months later, because it was precisely such anomalies that they initially searched for: things like rented dive boats. Or charter boats that had suddenly disappeared. But the Andromeda remained just one yacht for hire among hundreds, long since back in port when the seabed shook. And the saboteurs had more than enough time to leave the country and cover their tracks.

Nine months later, on a Saturday afternoon in June, German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) was standing at the harbor quay in Rostock's Warnemünde district. In the background, the masts swayed in the marina; in the foreground the BP84 Neustadt ship towered over everything, 86 meters long, with a 57 millimeter shipboard gun. The Neustadt is the Federal Police force's newest ship. It's also in part a response to the Nord Stream attack.

"Increasingly, the lines between internal and external security are becoming blurred, and nowhere is that more conspicuous than here," the interior minister said. She explained that the attack showed how vulnerable we are. "The Baltic Sea has become a geopolitical hotspot."

In the background, the Federal Police Orchestra played the maritime anthem "Save the Sea." It was time for the vessel's christening. Faeser pulled on a rope and a champagne bottle swung toward the Neustadt. The bottle hit the ship's hull with a dull clonk, without breaking. A murmur went through the crowd. Sailors believe it is bad luck if the bottle doesn't break.

Correction: In an earlier version of this story, CIA-Chief William Burns was called "Richard Burns”. We corrected the mistake.

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EXCLUSIVE: “The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Unveiled…

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The Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning: “The Unpredictable Consequences of Delicate Political Matters

In the realm of politics, there exist certain matters so sensitive, so inherently fragile, that their mere existence can send shockwaves through the social and political fabric of a nation. These issues, oftentimes underpinned by deep-rooted historical, cultural, or ideological tensions, have the potential to disrupt the delicate balance that holds societies together.

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—War, Death, Hunger, Pestilence, and Disinformation—

The series of events surrounding Russia's actions towards Ukraine and the mysterious explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline have sent shockwaves through the global economy. These events have significant implications not only for the countries directly involved, but also for the global economic landscape. In addition, the "mystery" explosion at the Nord Stream pipeline has added to the economic fallout. Nord Stream, a major energy pipeline between Russia and Europe, plays a crucial role in the supply of natural gas to European countries. The explosion has exacerbated the precarious gas supply, caused energy price spikes and disrupted supply chains across the region. The incident was a stark reminder of the deep vulnerability of energy infrastructure resulting from a series of poor geopolitical decisions, and ultimately of the global dependence on stable and secure energy supplies.

The last three years have been a tumultuous period for Ukraine and its impact on the global economy. In the midst of a post-pandemic recovery, the Russian invasion and subsequent aggression have added a new dimension to the challenges facing Europe and the world. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused immense war-related devastation, resulting in loss of life, displacement of communities and damage to infrastructure. The ongoing war is exacerbating the economic burden on Ukraine and has far-reaching implications for neighbouring countries and international stability.

Death: Tragically, the conflict has led to the loss of numerous lives. The human toll, driven by violence and instability, creates an immense humanitarian crisis. The impact of death and destruction on families and communities further deepens the wounds of this ongoing struggle.

Hunger: The prolonged conflict, coupled with the disruption of vital supply chains, has severely affected food security in Ukraine and the world.

Pestilence: Already grappling with the aftermath of a catastrophic pandemic, the world faces additional challenges due to the ongoing conflict.

Disinformation: The spread of inconsistent information has been an alarming aspect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This disinformation affects not only the people directly involved but also the perceptions and decision-making of the international community.

The confluence of these five factors—war, death, hunger, pestilence, and disinformation—underscores the immense challenges faced by Ukraine and the broader impact on the international community.

A Secret But Not a Secret: From a Time Until Now...

According to Spiegel International today (read the full article below), the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea indicates that Kyiv—supposedly—may be responsible. This revelation may alarm the international community and prompt some adjustments in world politics that would ultimately benefit Germany. Investigators have spent the last year tirelessly searching for the truth behind the explosion. The blast was a significant event that unfolded and shook the foundations of Germany's energy sector with serious implications across Europe's economy.

An initial disturbance grew into a disaster orchestrated by an elusive command to cripple Germany's energy supply.

This secret corps demonstrated incredible prowess somewhere in the shadows, skilfully evading detection as they infiltrated the heart of Germany's energy infrastructure. Their mission was to expose the vulnerabilities embedded in Europe's energy network. With surgical precision, they executed their plan, leaving a trail of destruction and millions of unsuspecting citizens without access to vital gas supplies.

The impact was staggering. Millions of homes were plunged into darkness as radiators ceased their steady hum and cold penetrated their walls. Vital industries heavily reliant on gas ground to a halt, exacerbating an already struggling economy. As patients shivered in hospitals, the gravity of the situation became painfully clear - the security of Europe's energy infrastructure had been critically compromised.

The colossal scale of this event could not be underestimated. It was a wake-up call, a stark reminder of our vulnerability in an interconnected world. The once-trusted system that kept the lights on and the wheels turning was now exposed.

As the initial shockwaves reverberated, questions rained down from all corners. How could such a brazen attack have gone unnoticed? Was it an intelligence failure or a profound lapse in security measures? Europe's energy landscape, once considered robust, was now shaken...

Nations across the continent scrambled to deal with the immediate crisis. Emergency measures were implemented as authorities worked tirelessly to restore broken gas lines and strategise for a future where energy security became imperative. Government agencies undertook an arduous task, compounded by the need to restore confidence in a system that had been shaken to its core.

The incident sent ripples of uncertainty across the continent. It was a moment that challenged Europe's collective identity, questioning its unity and resilience. It brought the energy debate to the fore, calling for massive investment in renewable technologies, diversified sources and reliable back-up systems.

In the darkest hour, however, clarity emerged. Europe, no stranger to adversity, would be

The investigation has led the authorities to some politically sensitive findings. According to the evidence collected thus far, it appears that a commando consisting of divers and explosives specialists chartered a vessel named the Andromeda, which departed from Warnemünde in northern Germany. The ship sailed unnoticed across the Baltic Sea before executing its mission on September 26, 2022, by causing significant damage to three pipes belonging to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines.

While initially the identities and motives of the culprits were shrouded in mystery, all the evidence now seems to be pointing towards Kyiv. This revelation is sure to have far-reaching consequences and could potentially strain international relations. The implications of an attack on Germany's energy infrastructure are severe, and accusations are not taken lightly in the political arena.

One thing is certain: the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines has sent shockwaves throughout the international community and has thrust Kyiv into the spotlight. Whether this is a carefully orchestrated plan or a coincidental twist of events, the implications are vast, and the world will be watching closely as the truth unravels.

Given the circumstances described, it is vital to emphasize that the Nord Stream consortium companies have discreetly engaged with insurance companies to establish their entitlement to compensation that they believe they deserve is almost certain. Nevertheless, we must also prioritize the rights and well-being of individuals globally who have been adversely impacted by the launch of non-traditional inflationary products, the shortages of vital supplies such as food and fuel, resulting in substantial increases in electricity costs that weigh heavily on individuals and economies.

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After the attack: damage to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline/ Foto: blueye / Editions by Germán & Co.

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Investigating the Nord Stream Attack All the Evidence Points To Kyiv

It's a spy thriller that has the potential to change the course of international politics: A year ago, a secret commando blew up the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Since then, investigators have been searching for the perpetrators. The leads they have found are extremely politically sensitive.

SPIEGEL By Liliana Botnariuc, Jürgen Dahlkamp, Jörg Diehl, Matthias Gebauer, Hubert Gude, Roman Höfner, Martin Knobbe, Roman Lehberger, Frederik Obermaier, Jan Puhl, Alexandra Rojkov, Marcel Rosenbach, Fidelius Schmid, Sandra Sperber, Thore Schröder, Thomas Schulz, Gerald Traufetter, Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt und Jean-Pierre Ziegler, Auguat 26, 2023

The Andromeda is a decrepit tub. The sides of the vessel are dented and scraped from too many adventuresome docking maneuvers while the porous pipes in the head exude a fecal stench. The 75 horsepower diesel engine rattles like a tractor and the entire boat creaks and groans as it ponderously changes course. The autopilot is broken. Other sailors hardly take any notice at all of the sloop: Just another worn charter vessel like so many others on the Baltic Sea.

The perfect yacht if you're looking to avoid attracting attention.

According to the findings of the investigation thus far, a commando of divers and explosives specialists chartered the Andromeda almost exactly one year ago and sailed unnoticed from Warnemünde in northern Germany across the Baltic Sea before, on September 26, 2022, blowing holes in three pipes belonging to the natural gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. It was a catastrophic assault on energy supplies, a singular act of sabotage – an attack on Germany.

The operation was aimed at "inflicting lasting damage to the functionality of the state and its facilities. In this sense, this is an attack on the internal security of the state." That's the legal language used by the examining magistrates at the German Federal Court of Justice in the investigation into unknown perpetrators that has been underway since then.

Unknown because – even though countless criminal investigators, intelligence agents and prosecutors from a dozen countries have been searching for those behind the act – it has not yet been determined who did it. Or why. The findings of the investigation thus far, much of them coming from German officials, are strictly confidential. Nothing is to reach the public. On orders from the Chancellery.

"This is the most important investigation of Germany's postwar history because of its potential political implications," says a senior security official. Those within the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) who are responsible for the Nord Stream case, members of Department ST 24, are even prohibited from discussing it with colleagues who aren't part of the probe. Investigators are required to document when and with whom they spoke about which aspect of the case – a requirement that is extremely unusual even at the BKA, Germany's equivalent to the FBI.

There is a lot at stake, that much is clear. If it was a Russian commando, would it be considered an act of war? According to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, an attack on the critical infrastructure of a NATO member state can trigger the mutual defense clause. If it was Ukraine, would that put an end to Germany's ongoing support for the country with tank deliveries or potentially even fighter jets? And what about the Americans? If Washington provided assistance for the attack, might that spell the end of the 75-year trans-Atlantic partnership?

"It immediately raised the question for me: How can we better protect ourselves."

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser

Beyond that, as if more critical questions were needed, the Nord Stream attack has provided a striking blueprint for just how easy it can be to destroy vital infrastructure like pipelines. "It immediately raised the question for me: How can we better protect ourselves," says German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser. "The disruption of critical infrastructure can have an enormous effect on people's lives."

There are plenty of targets for such attacks: internet nodes, oil pipelines, nuclear power plants. One can assume that close attention is being paid in North Korea, Iran and other terrorist states on what exactly will happen now. If the perpetrators are not found, if the sponsors of the attack are not sanctioned, if there is no military reaction – then the deterrents standing in the way of similar attacks in the future will be significantly fewer.

But there are leads. DER SPIEGEL, together with German public broadcaster ZDF, assembled a team of more than two dozen journalists to track them down over a period of six months. Their reporting took them around the globe: from the Republic of Moldova to the United States; from Stockholm via Kyiv and Prague to Romania and France. Much of the information comes from sources who cannot be named. It comes from intelligence agencies, investigators, high ranking officials and politicians. And it comes from people who, in one way or another, are directly linked to suspects.

At some point in the reporting, it became clear that the Andromeda had played a critical role, which is why DER SPIEGEL and ZDF chartered the boat once the criminal technicians from the BKA had released it. Together, six reporters followed the paths of the saboteurs across the Baltic Sea to the site of one of the explosions in international waters.

This voyage on its own did not reveal the secrets of the attack, but it made it easier to understand what may have happened and how – what is plausible and what is not. And why investigators have become so convinced that the leads now point in just one single direction. Towards Ukraine.

That consensus in itself is striking, say others – particularly politicians who believe the attack from the Andromeda may have been a "false flag" operation – an attack intentionally made to look as though it was perpetrated by someone else. All the leads point all-too-obviously towards Kyiv, they say, the clues and evidence seem too perfect to be true. The Americans, the Poles and, especially, the Russians, they say, all had much stronger motives to destroy the pipeline than the Ukrainians.

Still others believe that too many inconsistencies remain. Why did the perpetrators use a chartered sailboat for the operation instead of a military vessel? Why wasn't the Andromeda simply scuttled afterwards? How were two or three divers on their own able to blow up pipelines located at a depth of around 80 meters (260 feet) beneath the waves?

The story of the operation is a preposterous thriller packed full of agents and secret service missions, special operations and commando troops, bad guys and conspiracy theorists. A story in which a dilapidated sailboat on the Baltic Sea plays a central role.

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The Search

It's a chilly January day in Dranske, a town on the northwest tip of the German Baltic Sea island of Rügen. The law enforcement officials show up at 9:45 a.m. for the search, 13 of them from the BKA and Germany's Federal Police, including IT forensic experts, a crime scene investigator and explosives specialists. Their target on this morning are the offices of Mola Yachting GmbH, and they tell the shocked employees that they have a search warrant for a boat that was chartered from the premises. The punishable offense listed on the warrant: "The effectuation of an explosive detonation, anti-constitutional sabotage."

They demand to know where the Andromeda is. The technical chief of Mola tells them it is in winter storage, a few hundred meters away. He leads the group of law enforcement officials along a secluded private road to a former East German army facility, as a confidential memo documents. The Andromeda is sitting on blocks out in the open, with workers sanding down the hull. The search begins at 11:05 a.m. It lasts three days.

The investigators are lucky. Mola didn't clean the boat before storing it for the winter, and the saboteurs were the last people to charter the vessel. A plastic bottle "with apparently Polish labeling" is found next to the sink. Beneath the map table is a single "barefoot shoe." According to the BKA's search log, file number ST 24-240024/22, the officials remove the marine navigation system, a model called Garmin GPSMAP 721.

The sailing yacht Andromeda in the Baltic Sea / Foto: Christian Irrgang / DER SPIEGEL

The next day, the federal police bring two bomb-sniffing dogs onboard; they have to be hoisted up using a kind of winch. They spend more than an hour sniffing around onboard the Andromeda. With success, as forensics experts would later confirm in the lab. On a table belowdecks and even on the toilet, they are able to find substantial traces of octogen, an explosive that also works underwater.

Ever since the search of the ship on those days in January, German investigators have been certain that the Andromeda is the key to the Nord Stream case. Finally, a breakthrough.

Early in the investigation, it seemed that such a breakthrough would never come. The few leads the detectives had all turned up nothing of substance, and they had no clear indications of who the perpetrators might be. But then, a few weeks after the attack, intelligence was passed to the BKA indicating that a sailboat was involved.

To avoid causing concern and attracting unwanted attention, the investigators contacted boat rental companies in Rostock and surroundings one at a time – ultimately zeroing in on Mola and the Andromeda.

It was a rather surprising development for the public at large, particularly given that other scenarios seemed so much more likely: submersibles, specialized ships, at least a motorboat or two. But a single sailboat as the base of operations for the most significant act of sabotage in European history?

German officials were also skeptical at first. The federal public prosecutor general commissioned an expert analysis with a clear question of inquiry: "Whether such an act could be carried out with a completely normal yacht or if a much, much larger vessel was necessary." Such was the formulation used by Lars Otte, the deputy head of the Federal Public Prosecutor's Office, during a confidential, mid-June session of the Internal Affairs Committee of German parliament, the Bundestag. Speaking to the gathered parliamentarians, he stressed: "The assessment of the expert is: Yes, it is also possible with a completely normal yacht of the kind under consideration."

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The Andromeda

On September 6, 2022, the Andromeda was bobbing in the waves along with dozens of other boats in a marina in Rostock's Warnemünde district waiting to be taken out by its next renters. For the last decade, it has been plowing through the Baltic Sea every few days, with a new charter crew at the helm. The Andromeda is a Bavaria 50 Cruiser, built in Bavaria in 2012 and frequently belittled by sailors as the "Škoda of the seas." Not exactly elegant, but practical, a bit like a floating station wagon: 15.57 meters (roughly 51 feet) long and a beam of 4.61 meters, it is rather affordable for its size.

Belowdecks, it has five small cabins with space for a maximum of 12 people, if you don't mind a bit of crowding. The double berths are hardly 1.2 meters wide. By contrast, though, there is plenty of storage space and the kitchenette is relatively spacious, complete with a gas stove and a banquette surrounding a varnished dining table. A swimming platform can be folded down from the stern, making it easy to take a dip. It is ideal for divers with their heavy equipment.

The marina Hohe Düne is located around 10 kilometers from the Rostock city center as the crow flies, a strangely lifeless place with a giant wellness hotel and a solitary pizzeria. Long piers wind their way out into the water to 920 morages, with a small wooden structure right in the middle of Pier G. Those who have chartered a yacht with Mola Yachting must register here, complete with identification, sport boat license and a 1,500-euro deposit.

On September 6, according to reporting by DER SPIEGEL and ZDF, a sailing crew checked in at the Mola shack in the early afternoon to take out the Andromeda. The charter fee had apparently been paid by a Warsaw travel agency called Feeria Lwowa, a company with no website or telephone number.

According to the Polish commercial registry, the company is headed by a 54-year-old woman named Nataliia A., who lives in Kyiv. She completed a course of study in early childhood education, but has no recognizable experience in the tourism industry. She has a Ukrainian mobile phone number. If you call it, a woman answers – before immediately hanging up once you identify yourself as a journalist. A few days later, a Ukrainian "police officer" called back, threatening the reporter with charges of "stalking," citing a rather flimsy justification. Feeria Lwowa's address in Warsaw likewise leads nowhere. There is no office and there are no local employees. It looks as though it is a shell company.

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Who Is Ştefan Marcu?

And something else would soon prove to be extremely challenging for investigators: When the saboteurs showed up at the Mola shack to check in for their rental of the Andromeda, they apparently presented a Romanian passport. It had been issued to a certain Ştefan Marcu, as official documents indicate. But who was he? Did he have anything to do with the attack?

Marcu opens the steel gate to his property wearing shorts and flipflops. It is the middle of July, a hot day in Goianul Nou, a village in Moldova just north of the capital of Chiᶊinǎu. The Ukrainian border isn't even 50 kilometers from here.

Ştefan Marcu is a sturdily built man with a deep tan and a black moustache, an engineer with his own company. A team from DER SPIEGEL and ZDF along with reporters from the investigative networks Rise Moldova and OCCRP managed to track him down. The two-story home where he lives with his family is the most attractive one on their street. Marcu stares down at the note the reporters show him, bearing the number 055227683.

He recognizes it immediately. He says he is a citizen of Moldova, but that the number belonged to his old Romanian passport, which expired the previous October. The last time he used the passport, he says, was in 2019 for a vacation in Romania and then, a couple months after that, for a trip to Bulgaria. He says he has no idea how his name got mixed up in the pipeline story. It's the first time he's heard about it, he insists. Aside from the reporters, nobody else has asked him about it, he says, no police officers and no intelligence agents.

After he received his new passport, he says, the woman at the office invalidated his old one. "When I got home, I burned it. I threw it in the oven," Marcu says.

But the data from his passport, officials believe, seems to have been used to produce another document, a falsified passport that was then used to charter the Andromeda. Complete with a new photo. The photo, though, is not of Ştefan Marcu, the 60-year-old from Moldova, but of a young man in his mid-20s with a penetrating gaze and military haircut. The man in the photo is very likely Valeri K. from the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. He apparently serves in the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian army.

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A Stop in Northern Rügen

It's not possible to determine precisely when the saboteurs left the Hohe Düne marina. But the very next day, on September 7, they made their first stop just 60 nautical miles away in Wiek, a tiny harbor on the north coast of Rügen. Under normal circumstances, it is part of a long but idyllic sailing trip along the coast of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, past the Fischland-Darss peninsula and the island of Hiddensee.

It takes the team of reporters around 12 hours to sail this first leg of the journey, in pleasant, mid-July weather and calm seas. For most of that distance, the Andromeda is propelled by its motor, at a relatively constant clip of seven to eight knots. In a strong wind, when the mainsail can be set on the 22-meter-tall mast along with the jib, the ship can reach speeds of 10 to 11 knots.

In contrast to Warnemünde, Wiek is a solitary, isolated place, vastly different from the busy Rostock marina. Those wishing to load up their boat in Rostock have to push a handcart back and forth across long piers past dozens of other boats and crews. In Wiek, though, it is possible to drive a delivery truck right up to one of the few moorages that are large enough for a vessel the size of Andromeda. When the skipper of the DER SPIEGEL/ZDF voyage called ahead to reserve a moorage, the harbormaster asked: "Do you want the same spot as the terrorists?"

Still, during our visit, marina staffers prove reluctant to talk about the Andromeda and its stopover, at least not on the record. One of the workers who has clear memories of the sailboat's layover and who dealt directly with the crew says that the people on board seemed physically fit and familiar with each other, and that they spoke in a language he was unfamiliar with.

The crew was made up of five men and a woman, says the harbormaster, who filled up the fuel tank of the Andromeda for the saboteurs. That was during the boat's second stop in Wiek, on the return trip to Warnemünde. He wrote down the amount paid for the diesel in a black notebook, the same one he uses to record the fuel purchased by the crew of reporters.

The harbormaster flips back through his notebook and finds two entries that may have been for the diesel purchased by the team of saboteurs: one for 665.03 euros and one for 1,309.43 euros on September 22 and 23, respectively. In addition to filling the boat's tank, though, he recalls, he was also asked to fill up several canisters. One of the men paid for the fuel in cash, pulling a striking number of large-denomination euro bills out of his pocket to do so – but he didn't leave a tip.

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On the Pea Islands

After the first stopover in Wiek, the Andromeda disappeared for an extended period. With the help of a meter, investigators have determined that the crew didn't sail the ship and used the motor instead. Around 10 days later, the vessel apparently reappeared off the island of Christiansø, not much more than a rock jutting out of the waves near Bornholm, so small that it is sometimes called Pea Island. The port lies attractively below defensive fortifications built in 1684. The island, located near the easternmost point of Denmark, is home to hardly more than 100 residents, but it is a popular destination for day-trippers who sail over from the vacation island of Bornholm for a lunch of kryddersild.

It seems safe to say, though, that the saboteurs weren't there for the pickled herring: Christiansø is the nearest port to the site of the detonations. And a chartered sailboat doesn't stand out at all, with almost 50 vessels sailing in and out on busy days, says Søren Andersen. The chief of administration for the tiny islands, Anderson is sitting among portraits of the Danish royal family in a white-plastered building with a green door made of wood and a sign reading "Politi," police. "In December, the Danish police requested us to share all the port data" from September 16 to 18, 2022, says Anderson.

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An Inspection in Poland

That was when the commando on board the Andromeda made a brief detour – directly south to Poland. On September 19, exactly one week before the pipelines were blown up, the Andromeda docked in Kołobrzeg, Poland, a Baltic Sea resort known for its saline springs and usually packed with tourists during the summer months. And with sailboats. The Andromeda only stayed for 12 hours.

Poland was always one of the most adamant opponents of Nord Stream 2 and vociferously demanded over the course of several years that the project be stopped. Warsaw long viewed Germany's dependence on energy from Moscow as an existential threat. It would be fair to say that Poland had a strong interest in eliminating this threat to its security right off its coastline once and for all.

In May, German investigators traveled to Poland for a "meeting at the level of the prosecutor's offices conducting the investigation," as it would later be described. One question addressed during that meeting was whether the saboteurs had received any support while in Kołobrzeg, either of a material nature, or in the form of personnel. They wanted to know if the port may have been used as a logistical hub.

The responsible public prosecutor in Danzig, from the department for organized crime and corruption, vehemently denies such a scenario when asked. "There is absolutely no evidence for the involvement of a Polish citizen in the detonation of the Nord Stream pipelines," he says. "The investigation has found that during the stay in a Polish harbor, no objects were loaded onto the yacht." In fact, he notes, "the crew of the yacht was checked by Polish border control officials" because they had raised suspicions. Perhaps because of the falsified documents used by the crew? Whatever triggered their concerns, the border control officials made a note of the personal information they had presented.

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Image by Germán & Co.

The Pipelines

By September 20, the Andromeda had already departed from Kołobrzeg. By this time, the explosives had likely already been laid and equipped with timed detonators. Christiansø, the sailboat's previous port of call, is, in any case, the closest to the main detonation site. It is located just 44 kilometers – less than a three-hour voyage to the northeast – from the coordinates 55° 32' 27" north, 15° 46′ 28.2" east.

The Baltic Sea gets rather lonely to the east of the Pea Islands. There are fewer ferries, fewer tankers and not too many sailboats either. For miles around, there is nothing but water and sky.

There is, however, something to see on the sonar, some 80 meters below: Four pipes, each with an inside diameter of 1.15 meters, wrapped in up to 11 centimeters of concrete which keeps them on the sea floor, and a layer to protect against corrosion. Beneath that is four centimeters of steel and a coating to ensure the natural gas flows more freely on its long journey from Russia to Germany.

Nordstream 1 begins in the Russian town of Vyborg and runs through the Gulf of Finland and crosses beneath the Baltic Sea before reaching the German town of Lubmin, located near the university town of Greifswald.

The double pipeline is 1,224 kilometers long and consists of 200,000 individual segments, most of which were produced by Europipe in Mühlheim, Germany. During construction, 15 freight trains per week rolled into the ferry port of Sassnitz, where the pipe segments were loaded onto a ship. The project's price tag was 7.4 billion euros, with most of it paid for, directly or indirectly, by the Russian state.

It went into operation in 2012, sending almost 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas from the Russian fields Yuzhno-Russkoye and Shtokman, located on the Barents Sea, to Germany. In 2018, the pipeline accounted for 16 percent of all European Union natural gas imports. Nord Stream 1 was one of the most important pipelines in the world.

In spring 2018, dredgers again sailed into the Bay of Greifswald to make way for Nord Stream 2, also a double pipeline. This one starts a bit further to the south, in the town of Ust-Luga, located in the Leningrad Oblast – but most of it runs parallel to the first pipeline. It was planned to carry 55 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas per year to Germany. Taken together, the two pipelines were able to transport far more than Germany consumed each year. Most Germans were in favor of the new pipeline project, blinded to their country's growing dependency on Moscow by the cheap price of Russian gas. A 2021 survey among supporters of all political parties found that an average of 75 percent of Germans were in favor of Nord Stream 2.

Security policy experts and many of Germany's international allies, by contrast, were aghast. Nord Stream 1 had already tied Germany far too closely to Russia, they felt. And now Berlin wanted to import even more energy from Vladimir Putin's empire? The Americans, in particular, were vocal about their opposition to the project. Indeed, Washington thought Nord Stream 2 was so dangerous that it warned Germany that its completion would significantly harm U.S.-German relations.

Ukraine was also radically opposed to the new pipeline. Significant quantities of Russian natural gas flowed to Western Europe through overland pipelines across Ukrainian territory. A second pipeline beneath the Baltic would make parts of the Ukrainian pipeline network obsolete. Kyiv saw Nord Stream as a direct threat to the country.

In September 2021, Nord Stream 2 was completed, but it did not go into operation. And a few months later, the Russian invasion of Ukraine put an end to the political debate – and left Germany scrambling to free itself from dependency on energy imports from Russia as quickly as possible. The initial plan called for continuing to import natural gas through Nord Stream 1 for a time, but the second pipeline was essentially dead in the water.

For the time being, at least. But politics can be fickle, consumers and industry have a fondness for cheap energy and Putin wouldn't be around forever, would he? The four pipes lay on the seabed, ready to be put back in use once that time came.

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Explosions in the Baltic Sea

At 2:03 a.m. on September 26, a blast wave rippled through the bed of the Baltic Sea, powerful enough to be recorded by Swedish seismographs hundreds of kilometers away. The welded seam between two segments of pipe A of Nord Stream 2 was shredded. It was a precise cleavage, likely caused by a relatively small amount of perfectly placed specialized explosive material: octogen. Exactly the same explosive of which forensics experts would later find traces onboard the Andromeda. The explosion initially ripped a roughly 1.5-meter gap in the pipe, but the gas gushing out enlarged the leak.

Seventeen hours later, at 7:04 p.m., there was another blast wave, this time 75 kilometers to the north. It was much stronger, and there were several explosions. Above water, the muffled blast could be heard several kilometers away. This time, both pipes belonging to Nord Stream 1 were destroyed: a 200-meter section of pipe A and a 290-meter segment of pipe B. A 3-D visualization based on underwater camera footage and sonar readings shows deep craters, piles of rubble and bits of pipeline sticking up diagonally from the seafloor.

Initially, nobody knew just how dramatic the situation was, not even the operators of the two pipelines, Nord Stream AG and Nord Stream 2 AG. Both companies are majority owned by the Russian natural gas giant Gazprom. Initially, they only registered a drastic fall in pipeline pressure, but technicians were immediately concerned that something might by wrong, as were military representatives in the region. On the morning of September 27, a Danish F-16 fighter discovered strange bubbles on the surface of the water, and the Danish military published the first images that afternoon: Natural gas rising up from the bottom of the Baltic had formed circles of bubbles up to 1,000 meters across on the water's surface not far from Bornholm.

It's not yet possible to say with complete certainty how the perpetrators went about their business. But the findings of the international investigation make it possible to reconstruct much of what took place. Data from geological monitoring stations, videos and sonar data from the seafloor provide additional clues. That data comes from a Swedish camera team and from Greenpeace, both of which launched their own surveys using underwater devices. For experts, the publicly available information paint a largely consistent picture, according to which the group of saboteurs was likely made up of six people – five men and a woman. Likely a captain, divers, dive assistants and perhaps a doctor.

According to former military and professional divers, the operation would have been possible, though challenging, with such a team. "It's pitch black down there, cold, and there are currents," says Tom Kürten. As a technical diver and expedition leader, he has been inspecting wrecks on the bottom of the Baltic Sea for many years. With the correct equipment, it is possible to dive to depths of 100 meters or more, and he believes it would be impossible to locate the pipelines without technical assistance. Indeed, with a small DownScan, a sonar device, it would be relatively simple, he says. And once the spot has been identified, all you have to do, he says, is throw a "shot line" overboard, a rope with a weight on the end that guides the divers into the depths.

For challenging dives, Kürten also uses a rebreather, which recycles exhaled air and replenishes it with oxygen for the next breath. The advantage is that no tanks are needed, and such devices also produce fewer bubbles, which can be helpful if you are seeking to avoid unwanted attention. Still, such an operation takes time. For 20 minutes spent working at a depth of 80 meters, a total of three hours of dive time is necessary, Kürten estimates. During the ascent, decompression stops are vital so that the body can adjust from the high pressure on the seafloor to the lower pressure at the surface. It's a rather complex undertaking, but certainly possible during a long trip.

The pipe tore open along a length of approximately 100 meters. A so-called "cutter charge" was likely used, directly over a welded joint.

Later, when German investigators undertook a closer examination of the detonation sites, specialists from the maritime division of the German special forces unit GSG 9 dived down to take a look.

However you look at it, the operation could not have been performed by amateur divers – nor by hobby sailors. When the team of reporters in the Andromeda arrived at the site above where the explosions took place, a force 5 or 6 wind was blowing, it was raining, and the swells were significant. Standard Baltic Sea weather, in other words – in which it is difficult to keep a sailboat in one spot. According to weather data, mid-September 2022 was similar for several days, though it was calmer both before and afterward.

Explosives expert Fritz Pfeiffer produced an expert opinion for Greenpeace regarding the potential destructive power of the detonations, since the environmental group was interested in knowing how much damage had really been done to the pipeline and what that might mean for the environment.

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An Operation Straight Out of Hollywood

On underwater images of Nord Stream 1, Pfeiffer identified craters that he believes were created by large amounts of explosives detonating next to the pipeline. Investigators, though, think that a total of less than 100 kilograms of explosives were used and that the sudden release of the highly pressurized natural gas caused much of the damage.

Not far from the long stretches of destroyed pipes belonging to Nord Stream 1, the A pipe of Nord Stream 2 was attacked a second time – the same line that had already been severed 17 hours earlier further to the south. The pipe tore open along a length of approximately 100 meters. A so-called "cutter charge" was likely used, directly over a welded joint. Pfeiffer believes that just eight to 12 kilograms of octogen would have been necessary for such a detonation.

The B pipe of Nord Stream 2, meanwhile, wasn't harmed at all – and could easily be put into use even today. But why did the perpetrators leave one of the four pipes undamaged? There are some indications that the saboteurs confused the A and B pipes of Nord Stream 2 in the darkness and unintentionally attacked the same pipe twice.

Whatever the case, experts seem to agree on one salient fact: specialized submarines or remote-controlled submersibles were not necessary for the operation. But there are several questions to which no answer has yet been found. How were the bombs detonated? Why did so much time pass between the first explosion and the three that followed? Some experts believe that they might have had difficulties in activating the explosives – either via a delayed detonator or a remote detonator.

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The Warnings

Perhaps the attack could have been prevented in the first place. It didn't come as a complete surprise, after all. It had been announced several months beforehand, in detail. But the warning wasn't taken seriously enough in the right places.

An encrypted, strictly confidential dispatch from an allied intelligence agency was received by the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND – Germany's foreign intelligence agency) in June 2022. Such dispatches are hardly an anomaly, but this one contained a clear warning. It was from the Netherlands' military intelligence agency, which goes by the initials MIVD and is well known for its expertise in Russian cyberwarfare techniques. On this occasion, though, the agency's alarming information seemed to have come from a human asset in Kyiv.

The Dutch also informed the CIA – which, just to be on the safe side, also forwarded it onward to the Germans.

The confidential dispatch sketched out an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines. The plan called for six commando soldiers from the Ukraine, concealed with fake identities, to charter a boat, dive down to the bottom of the Baltic Sea with specialized equipment and blow up the pipes. According to the information, the men were under the command of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had apparently not been informed of the plan. The attack was apparently planned to take place during the NATO exercise Baltops on the Baltic Sea. The content of the secret dispatch was originally reported on by the Washington Post in early June.

The BND forwarded the warning to the Chancellery, but at German government headquarters, it was deemed irrelevant. After all, it only arrived at the Chancellery after the NATO maneuver had come to an end, and nothing had happened. That is why nobody sounded the alarm, says one of the few people who learned of the warning when it arrived. Most German security officials believed the information contained in the dispatch was inaccurate.

As a result, no protective measures were introduced, no further investigations were undertaken and no preparations were made to potentially prevent an attack at a later point in time. The Federal Police, the German Navy and the antiterrorism centers never even learned of the warning.

Nor did the German agency responsible for the oversight of Nord Stream.

In the early morning hours of September 26, Klaus Müller, president of the Federal Network Agency, received a telephone call. His agency is responsible for regulating Germany's electricity and natural gas grids. Christoph von dem Bussche, head of the company Cascade, which operates 3,200 kilometers of Germany's natural gas pipelines, was on the other end of the line. According to sources in Berlin, Bussche told Müller that one of the Nord Stream pipelines had just experienced an inexplicable loss of pressure.

Washington carefully approached Kyiv with a clear message: Don't do it! Abort the operation!

The head of the Federal Network Agency must have immediately realized how important that phone call was. He called German Economy Minister Robert Habeck.

Habeck, who is also the vice chancellor, was the first cabinet member to learn of the attack on the pipelines. Sources indicate that he was just as surprised as Müller had been. Neither of them had apparently known about the warning that had been received three months before.

It had also apparently not been discussed in the German Security Cabinet, the smaller group of ministers that has been meeting regularly in the Chancellery since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Müller, though, is the first person who should have been informed of increased risks posed to the pipeline: He is in charge of ensuring the smooth operation of Germany's numerous pipelines, and of protecting them if need be.

The U.S., by contrast, apparently sprang into action in summer 2022, even if the Americans didn't initially trust the Netherlands' source. Washington carefully approached Kyiv with a clear message: Don't do it! Abort the operation! The German weekly newspaper Die Zeit and public broadcaster ARD were the first to report on Washington's warning to Kyiv. But the message from the American's apparently wasn't taken seriously. Perhaps Washington lacked a certain amount of credibility, particularly given how clear they had made it in the past that they were deeply opposed to the gas pipelines connecting Germany and Russia.

Was there perhaps even more information that wasn't passed along? Did the well-informed Dutch military intelligence agents know even more than they shared, such as who was to be on board the ship and perhaps even from which Ukrainian unit they came from? If so, that information is no longer available. Leaving the German investigators to assemble the puzzle pieces on their own.

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Searching For Clues In Ukraine

One lead stems from the falsified passport of Ştefan Marcu. And from the man whose photo is apparently on that document: Valeri K.

Back in June, Lars Otte, the federal prosecutor, told members of the Internal Affairs Committee at the Bundestag that investigators had been able to "almost certainly identify a person who may have taken part in the operation."

The lead takes us to a large city in central Ukraine, to an abominable Soviet-era prefab residential building on the outskirts of Dnipro. The structure has eight, not entirely rosy-smelling entrances, a bar and a minimarket called Stella on the ground floor.

On the third floor of the first entrance is an apartment that is registered to the father of Valeri K. He, too, is called Valeri – and both are members of the military, say neighbors.

Nobody opens the door, despite extended knocking. Instead, the neighbors peek out, an elderly married couple. They say that the Valeris actually live in the building next door and that they only rent out this apartment. The younger Valeri K.'s grandmother, the couple says, used to work at Stella, and suggested dropping by there.

It's stuffy inside the store, and smells of dried fish. The saleswoman says that the grandmother is now the janitor of the neighboring building. Five minutes later, Lyubov K. sets aside her broom and sits down on a bench. She's a small woman with red-dyed hair and speaks Russian. She says she doesn't want to speak with the press, but remains seated on the bench. When asked if her grandson Valeri is in the army, she says "yes." What does he do there? "I don't know." She does say, though, that her son and grandson had only been called up a few months before. The conversation remains brief, ending with the grandmother claiming that her grandson couldn't have been onboard the Andromeda because he doesn't have a passport and is unable to travel overseas.

Another neighbor, a retiree with gray curls and wearing a blue shirt, is more talkative. Her son, she says, went to school with Valeri senior and they also worked together. The two of them had taken a job at a shipyard in Turkey several years before.

Then, the neighbor says, Valeri senior embarked on a completely different career path, smuggling migrants across the Mediterranean on a sailboat. But the operation was busted and the Ukrainians involved arrested. The neighbor says that the younger Valeri K. wasn't involved though.

The neighbors don't have much to say about him. His presence on social media is also limited, apparently limited to VK, a Facebook clone that is popular in Ukraine and Russia.

The most striking thing about the younger Valeri K. is that he is a follower of the openly nationalist youth organization VGO Sokil. It offers young men training in shooting and diving.

His most recent active VK profile is under the name "Chechen from Dnipro," and it is linked to a telephone number. If you enter the number into an App like Getcontact, you can see the names under which the number is saved in other people's contact lists. Among the names for Valeri's number is: "K. 93rd Brigade."

There are also leads to his long-time girlfriend Inna H. The two apparently aren't together any longer, but they have a son together. The mother and child no longer live in Dnipro, but in the German city Frankfurt an der Oder.

They live in a gray housing block just a few hundred meters from the Polish border. There are a number of Ukrainian refugees living in the building, including several relatives of Valeri K.: Inna H., the ex-girlfriend who is the mother of his son, his younger sister Anya K. and apparently also his maternal grandmother Tetyana H.

In May, they received a visit from the police, who searched the apartment. A DNA sample from Valeri K.'s son was then compared with traces found on the Andromeda. But there was no match.

Inna H. lives on one of the upper floors of the apartment block, but the door is opened by an elderly lady when a team of reporters from DER SPIEGEL rings the doorbell. She doesn't give her name, but she looks like the grandmother, Tetjana H., in photos. She doesn't want to talk to journalists.

If people have something to say, she says, they should discuss it with the authorities.

Asked about the accusations against Valeri K., she says only: "We are a simple family, the Germans saved us. Why would we want to do them any harm?"

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Little Doubt

Officially, politicians and the Office of the Federal Prosecutor are still holding back with any conclusions. Currently, it is not possible to say "this was state-controlled by Ukraine," Federal Prosecutor Otte says. "As far as that is concerned, the investigation is ongoing, much of it still undercover."

Behind the scenes, though, you get clearer statements. Investigators from the BKA, the Federal Police and the Office of the Federal Prosecutor have few remaining doubts that a Ukrainian commando was responsible for blowing up the pipelines. A striking number of clues point to Ukraine, they say. They start with Valeri K., IP addresses of mails and phone calls, location data and numerous other, even clearer clues that have been kept secret so far. One top official says that far more is known than has been stated publicly. According to DER SPIEGEL's sources, investigators are certain that the saboteurs were in Ukraine before and after the attack. Indeed, the overall picture formed by the puzzles pieces of technical information has grown quite clear.

And the possible motives also seem clear to international security circles: The aim, they says, was to deprive Moscow of an important source of revenue for financing the war against Ukraine. And at the same time to deprive Putin once and for all of his most important instrument of blackmail against the German government.

But crucial questions remain unanswered. From how high up was the attack ordered and who knew about it? Was it an intelligence operation that the political leadership in Kyiv learned about only later? Or was it the product of a commando unit acting on its own? Or was it a military operation in which the Ukrainian General Staff was involved? Intelligence experts and security policy experts, however, consider it unlikely that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was in on it: In cases of sabotage, the political leadership is often deliberately kept in the dark so that they can plausibly deny any knowledge later on. In early June, when the first indications of Kyiv's possible involvement came to light, Zelenskyy strongly denied it. "I am president and I give orders accordingly," he said. "Nothing of the sort has been done by Ukraine. I would never act in such a manner."

In any case, it is difficult terrain for the BKA, not only politically, but also in practical terms. The German criminal investigators cannot conduct investigations in Ukraine, and it isn't expected that Kyiv will provide much support. The German authorities have also shied away from submitting a request to Ukraine for legal assistance because doing so would require that they reveal what they know. That could provide Ukraine the opportunity to cover up any traces that may exist and to protect the people responsible. Asked whether there will be arrest warrants one day, an official familiar with the events replies: "We need a lot of patience."

"Everyone is shying away from the question of consequences."

Senior German government official

A Ukrainian commando carried out an attack on Germany's critical infrastructure? Officials at the Chancellery in Berlin have been discussing intensively for months how to deal with the sensitive findings of the investigation. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also been debating possible consequences with his closest advisers. Of course, there aren't many options available to them. A change of course in foreign policy or the idea of confronting Kyiv with the findings seems unthinkable.

The situation changed in March, when the New York Times, Germany's Die Zeit and Berlin-based public broadcaster RBB first reported on the evidence pointing to Ukraine. A little bit later, the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper also published its own investigative report. Soon after, Jens Plötner, an adviser to the chancellor, openly addressed the articles in a phone call with Andriy Yermak, one of President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy's closest confidants. The answer was clear: Yermak apparently assured the Germans that the Ukrainian government had not been involved in the plot and that no one from the security apparatus knew who was behind it.

Few in Berlin want to think right now about what action should be taken if the involvement of Ukrainian state agencies is proven. On the one hand, Germany couldn't simply brush off such a serious crime. But suspending support for Ukraine in its war against Russia also wouldn't be an option. "Everyone is shying away from the question of consequences," says one member of parliament with a party that is a member of the German government coalition.

The fact that politicians who normally might at least speak off the record are remaining silent and simply ignoring inquiries is an indicator of just how delicate the situation is. Inquiries about the situation regarding the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline - in ministries, at party headquarters and in parliamentary offices - as to how it is being discussed within the parties or whether the government is already thinking through scenarios for the eventuality that the Ukrainian leadership knew about the operation, go nowhere.

"No," says Irene Mihalic, the first parliamentary secretary of the Green Party, there was almost no discussion about the issue before the summer legislative recess. She says her party will wait for the outcome of the investigations, and that anything else would be pure speculation.

In fact, the information available to members of parliament in this case is also extremely thin. On the one hand, the federal public prosecutor naturally provides only scant information about ongoing investigations. More importantly, the federal government is keeping all the findings under wraps. Even most members of Scholz's cabinet as well as the deputies in the Parliamentary Control Committee, which is tasked with oversight of the work of the intelligence services, don't know much more than what is publicly reported about the attack.

The gatekeeper for information flows sits on the seventh floor of the Chancellery, diagonally opposite Olaf Scholz. Wolfgang Schmidt, the chancellor's closest confidant and head of the Chancellery, maintains intensive contact with the investigators. He is also briefed each week by the intelligence services and is happy to pick up the phone to make inquiries of his own. When asked, Schmidt says he doesn't want to comment on the Nord Stream case.

Sources within the investigation say they have been amazed by the level of interest the Chancellery head has shown in the progress of the proceedings. And at the same time, how little Berlin seems to care about shedding light on this unprecedented attack on the backbone of Germany's energy supply as quickly as possible.

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The Investigators

The BKA has three main offices. One is in Wiesbaden, where investigators deal with organized crime, narcotics offenses, targeted searches and such things. Another, in Berlin, provides headquarters for its experts on issues including Islamist terrorism. And then there's the one in Meckenheim near Bonn, in a gray 1970s, box-like building surrounded by orchards and fields, with red-tiled hallways inside. This is the place where one of the most sensational crimes in German criminal history is to be solved, and it looks like some random rural school.

This is where the BKA's State Protection Department is housed, where the investigators tasked with solving politically motivated crimes work: offenses like attacks, assassinations, espionage and sabotage. In the past, the office investigated the Red Army Faction, domestic left-wing radicals who perpetrated numerous terror attacks in Germany in the 1970s. And the National Socialist Underground, a neo-Nazi cell that killed immigrants, mostly of Turkish descent, across Germany in the early 2000s. More recently, they have been focused on the Reichsbürger movement of militant protesters who deny postwar Germany's right to exists. Now it has the Nord Stream saboteurs in its crosshairs.

The responsible department is ST 24: State Terrorism. One might assume that dozens of criminologists are working here around the clock researching, searching, and following up on every little lead.

For a time, hundreds of BKA agents were investigating the right-wing extremist madmen around Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss, who had been planning an absurd coup attempt to topple the German government. But only a handful of investigators at most have been assigned to work on the Nord Stream case on a full-time basis.

Sources in Berlin say that a small, dedicated group of skilled investigators should be sufficient. Directing more staff wouldn't be of much use anyway, they argue, since there are no large groups to observe and they aren't allowed to conduct investigations in other countries. And if necessary, more BKA people could also be called in addition to support from the Federal Police.

But the perception among investigators is that the will to solve the case is not particularly pronounced in the capital. Politically, it is easier to live with what happened if it remains unclear who is behind the attacks. The process is not being hindered, but neither is there much support from the overarching government ministries. Meanwhile, it is clear to career-oriented ministry officials that there is no glory to be had with this case. If only because the culprits will likely never have to answer for their actions in Germany. Even if they could be identified, it's very unlikely they would be extradited.

So Berlin is looking away, and that is definitely being registered in agencies where staff is constantly in short supply and procedures have to be prioritized. All of which leads to the investigation falling down the priority list.

Regardless, the BKA unit is led by a chief inspector, an experienced veteran in his mid-50s who is considered a shrewd criminologist by his colleagues.

The German investigators frequently exchange information with officials in Sweden and Poland, and traveled to Warsaw and Stockholm in the spring. However, no agreement has been reached on forming a joint procedure, called a Joined Investigation Team in legal vernacular. Ostensibly because the intelligence agencies involved don't want to be constantly sharing their information internationally.

Still, sources in all three countries involved say there is tight coordination. Swedish Nord Stream experts are acting more assertively than the Germans, and it is possible charges could be filed before the end of the year. Mats Ljungqvist, the Swedish prosecutor responsible for the investigation there, recently told Radio Sweden that he believes they may be approaching the final phase of the case.

International investigators and agents also say that all the intelligence has been pointing in one direction: towards Kyiv. At least those who are familiar with the evidence and clues.

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Alternative Scenarios

In the rest of the world, however, alternative scenarios are still circulating – some spurred by half-baked intelligence, some by amateur military experts and others driven more by domestic political or geostrategic interests.

The American journalist Seymour Hersh, 86, caused quite a stir, for example, when he accused the U.S. of committing the attacks. He claimed that a Norwegian naval vessel had secretly transported American combat divers into the Baltic Sea. The alleged motive: To make sure Russia would no longer be in a position to blackmail Germany with gas supplies. But Hersh didn't provide any evidence to back up his theory and essential parts of his article later turned out to be false. Hersh justified his reporting by saying that the information had been supplied to him by a source in Washington. The Russian government, though, was delighted and vaunted the baseless story as proof that the U.S. was the real warmonger.

Still others claim that such theories are extremely convenient for the Russians because they distract from the fact that they themselves are the perpetrators. As evidence of this, Russian ship movements in the Baltic Sea, reconstructed by journalists from the public broadcasters of Denmark (DR), Sweden (SVT), Finland (Yle) and Norway (NRK), are frequently cited.

On the night of September 21-22, for example, the Danish Navy encountered a conspicuous number of Russian ships east of Bornholm in exactly the area of the later blasts. The automatic identification systems on the boats had been turned off and they were traveling as unidentifiable "dark ships."

The 86-meter-long Sibiryakov, a hydrographic research vessel equipped for underwater operations, was also in the area. According to experts, it often accompanies Russian submarines on their secret test dives in the Baltic Sea. Some micro-submarines also have grabber arms that can be used to perform underwater work. Tasks like placing explosive charges.

But why would the Russians blow up their own pipeline? Especially given that they could simply block it at the push of a button? Why deprive yourself of a lever that still might be useful - at least a few years down the road – to resume blackmailing a Germany that is starving for cheap energy?

It's possible to find reasons, but they are all rather convoluted. One theory holds that Moscow wanted to save itself billions in damages after it violated its own contracts by cutting off promised Nord Stream gas supplies to Germany. If, on the other hand, the pipeline had been blown up by unknown persons, it would be considered a force majeure.

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Was It the Russians After All?

The next theory, somewhat more widespread even among Berlin politicians, goes like this: Russia destroyed the pipelines with the aim of later blaming it on the Ukrainians in a way that could undermine Western support for Kyiv. The Andromeda and all other evidence pointing to Ukraine was planted by Russian agents, they say, to throw the Europeans off the scent.

The theory that it was a "false flag" operation performed by the Russians is considered probable by Roderich Kiesewetter, the security and defense policy point man for the center-right Christian Democrats in the Bundestag. Kiesewetter says it would totally fit with Russia's style to pull off an operation like that perfectly and make it look like the trail leads to Kyiv.

"Of course, we're following up on those leads as well. But we don't have any evidence or confirmation of that so far."

Public prosecutor Lars Otte

Conversely, many other intelligence experts consider it highly improbable that Russian agents, who have show a predilection in recent years of more rustic methods - such as brazen and easily exposed political assassinations - could execute such a complex deception maneuver flawlessly.

German Federal Prosecutor Otte emphasized to the Bundestag's Internal Affairs Committee that they were definitely considering the "working hypothesis" that "state-directed perpetrators from Russia" could be responsible. "Of course, we're following up on those leads as well," Otte said. "But we don't have any evidence or confirmation of that so far."

Agents tend to believe there is a different, more straightforward explanation for the Russian Navy's clear presence in the Baltic last late summer: They suspect that Moscow, like the Dutch and the CIA, was not unaware of the plans to attack Nord Stream, and that the ships were there to patrol along the pipeline to protect it from the expected sabotage.

Particularly given that Ukraine apparently had plans to attack another Russian gas pipeline. Sources within the international security scene say that a sabotage squad had plans to attack and destroy the Turkstream pipelines running from Russia through the Black Sea to Turkey. A corresponding tip-off had also reached the German government together with the first warnings of an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines

It is unclear why there was no follow-up on the suspected plot to attack Turkstream.

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The Agents

One man who should be in a position to know could be found standing in the ballroom of the British Embassy in Prague on a hot July morning. Sir Richard Moore, the head of Britain's MI6 intelligence service, had arrived to discuss the global situation with selected intelligence colleagues and diplomats.

Moore is probably one of the best-informed men in the world. If anyone can gain access to all the available data about what happened in the run-up to the explosions under the Baltic Sea, it's the man with the gray crew cut and narrow reading glasses. DER SPIEGEL was able to ask him a quick question about the Nord Stream attack.

It is one of the few official, and thus mentionable encounters with an intelligence service for this story. Another takes place under similar conditions with CIA head William Burns in the posh American ski resort Aspen in the Rocky Mountains. Each year, the Who's Who of the U.S. security apparatus gathers there for the Aspen Security Forum. Burns was joined by senior U.S. armed forces officials and national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

When they spoke on the record on the subject of Nord Stream, the top intelligence officials were monosyllabic. Moore said in Prague that he didn't want to interfere in the investigations of Germany, Denmark and Sweden. And in Aspen, when asked about Nord Stream, only security adviser Sullivan responded, and briefly at that. "As you know, there is an ongoing investigation in multiple countries in Europe," Sullivan said coolly. "We'll let that play out, we'll let them lay out the results of the investigation."

The British MI6 chief at least provided a bit of context. He said that we have to be prepared for the fact that underwater attacks are now part of the arsenal of modern warfare. His service therefore informs the British government about its own Achilles' heels, adding that there are quite a few of them. "Seabed warfare," as such underwater operations are called in military jargon, is not just about pipelines for oil and gas. The power lines of offshore wind farms and especially undersea internet cables are also targets – and potentially even easier to destroy since you don't need explosives, just the right tools.

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Germany's Response

On September 23, three days before the explosive charges went off, the Andromeda returned to its home port in Rostock. The saboteurs, it is assumed, packed their things, handed in the boat key at the Mola Yachting charter base and walked away via Pier G.

It was one of the most amazing twists in this criminal case, at least at first glance. Why not just sink the boat, including the explosive residue and DNA traces?

Presumably because the investigators would have the been on the trail of the commando much sooner than three months later, because it was precisely such anomalies that they initially searched for: things like rented dive boats. Or charter boats that had suddenly disappeared. But the Andromeda remained just one yacht for hire among hundreds, long since back in port when the seabed shook. And the saboteurs had more than enough time to leave the country and cover their tracks.

Nine months later, on a Saturday afternoon in June, German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) was standing at the harbor quay in Rostock's Warnemünde district. In the background, the masts swayed in the marina; in the foreground the BP84 Neustadt ship towered over everything, 86 meters long, with a 57 millimeter shipboard gun. The Neustadt is the Federal Police force's newest ship. It's also in part a response to the Nord Stream attack.

"Increasingly, the lines between internal and external security are becoming blurred, and nowhere is that more conspicuous than here," the interior minister said. She explained that the attack showed how vulnerable we are. "The Baltic Sea has become a geopolitical hotspot."

In the background, the Federal Police Orchestra played the maritime anthem "Save the Sea." It was time for the vessel's christening. Faeser pulled on a rope and a champagne bottle swung toward the Neustadt. The bottle hit the ship's hull with a dull clonk, without breaking. A murmur went through the crowd. Sailors believe it is bad luck if the bottle doesn't break.

Correction: In an earlier version of this story, CIA-Chief William Burns was called "Richard Burns”. We corrected the mistake.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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India and Fluence Energy exemplify the strength of creativity and sustainability.

“Dad, the batteries were dead… The words were spoken with a mixture of annoyance and resignation. It seemed like a familiar refrain in every household, the ever-running battle against the inevitable energy drain from the favorite gadgets. The disappointment that accompanied the death of the batteries in our toys or transistor radios was palpable. We relied on those trusty "Eveready" cells to power our entertainment, but inevitably, they would let us down.

And then there were the car batteries. Oh, the frustration that surged when they decided to cease working! It was as if they had chosen the most unfortunate moment to give up. In those moments, the burden of our dependence on technology and convenience became acutely clear. Dad's expression mirrored disappointment, though a forgettable phrase slipped from his lips.

Not to mention the misfortune when the light bulb began to flicker, announcing the fluctuations in volatility, until the electrical system left us in unwarranted darkness. What a horror...

Nonetheless, the mammoth journey of the battery throughout history is admirable. It was in 1800 when the first proper battery was invented by the Italian physicist, Alessandro Volta. His creation comprised of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) discs piled up and divided by a cloth soaked in saline water. Once wires were connected to both ends of the battery, it resulted in a consistent and stable flow of current.

Volta’s invention was revolutionary because it introduced a reliable and unwavering source of energy. The battery has come to signify progress and ushered in a new era of possibilities. However, it is important to acknowledge that Volta was not its originator. Precedents of batteries can be traced back to 250 BC and had Mesopotamian roots.

Nevertheless, over the centuries, there have been tremendous developments in the field of electric systems. It has long been a challenge for electrical power systems to maintain stability in both voltage and frequency. This has presented a constant dilemma. However, a solution to this problem is within reach and it remains to be seen. Additionally, a resolution to this issue was discovered as far back as 250 BC, albeit with varying levels of technology.

In 2018, the legendary AES from the United States and the renowned Siemens from Germany, both influential players in the global electricity industry, united to establish Fluence Energy.

Fluence, a prominent energy storage solutions provider, has revolutionised how energy is harnessed and utilised. Their innovative energy storage system has transformed the renewable energy landscape and has brought about a more sustainable and dependable future.

At the centre of Fluence's energy storage system lies advanced battery technology. Employing top-of-the-range lithium-ion batteries, their systems can effectively store surplus energy generated from renewable sources such as solar and wind. This stored energy can be released as required, ensuring a consistent and dependable power supply, even when the sun sets or the wind ceases blowing.

One of the key benefits of Fluence's energy storage system is its scalability. Their solutions are tailored to meet the varying requirements of different industries and applications; whether for a small residential community, commercial facility, or large-scale utility project.

Furthermore, Fluence's energy storage systems provide unparalleled adaptability. Their systems can adapt to changing demand patterns and grid conditions in real-time using sophisticated software and controls. These systems can perfectly integrate with existing power infrastructure, improving grid stability and resilience.

In conclusion, Fluence's energy storage system has revolutionised the storage, management, and utilisation of energy. With its state-of-the-art battery technology, ability to scale, adaptable approach, safety protocols, and financial advantages, Fluence is leading the charge toward a future powered by renewable energy. By facilitating the assimilation of clean and sustainable sources, Fluence is crucial to the development of a more eco-friendly and robust world for generations to come.

To the development of a more eco-friendly and robust nation, India has emerged as a true leader. Throughout the world, India's clever technology development and outstanding professionals in various fields have made their mark in every corner of the earth, even reaching as far as the South Pole of the moon. It is truly remarkable to witness the transformation that India has undergone in recent years.

One cannot ignore the significant strides that India has made in its commitment to sustainability and environmental preservation. With a rapidly growing population and increasing development, the country has recognized the importance of balancing progress with the need to protect our planet. Through various initiatives and policies, India's responsible leadership has implemented measures to reduce carbon emissions, promote renewable energy sources, and adopt eco-friendly practices in industries ranging from agriculture to manufacturing. This focus on sustainability has not only set an example for other nations but has also had a tangible impact on global efforts to combat climate change.

"Prime Minister Modi's announcement of five critical goals for India in the next 25 years reflects his vision and determination to lead the country towards becoming a developed nation by 2047. These ambitious goals, if achieved, will undoubtedly transform India's social, economic, and technological landscape.

Firstly, the goal of ensuring clean water and sanitation for all is a crucial step towards improving public health and hygiene. Access to clean water and proper sanitation facilities is not only a fundamental human right, but also a necessity for a nation's overall well-being and development. The government aims to prioritize this goal and improve the overall quality of life for its citizens.

Additionally, a key objective set by PM Modi is to strengthen infrastructure and ensure integrated logistical networks throughout the country. Lastly, PM Modi's objective to promote sustainable development and leverage renewable energy sources demonstrates India's dedication to counteracting climate change. By shifting to clean energy, India endeavors to diminish its carbon footprint and tackle the urgent issue of environmental deterioration. This objective conforms to India's promise to the worldwide community to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and guarantee a stable, sustainable future."

Julian Nebreda

Fluence's President and CEO

Jan Teichmann

SVP & President, APAC

During his recent trip to India, Julian Nebreda, Fluence's President and CEO, and Jan Teichmann, SVP & President, APAC, discovered the extensive potential of the Indian market and its impressive clean energy objectives. With its skilled workforce committed to innovation and a resolute focus on renewable energy targets, India is rapidly becoming a leader in the international energy transformation. Understanding the importance of enhancing energy storage capabilities to support this transition, Julian held productive discussions with crucial stakeholders during his visit.

In a video, Mr. Julian Nebreda and Mr. Jan Teichmann, SVP & President, APAC, share the valuable insights gained from these discussions, shedding light on the path forward for India's energy sector. They emphasize the critical role that energy storage systems, particularly Fluence's, play in ensuring a robust and reliable electric system. Julian's visit to India showcased Fluence's commitment to supporting its energy needs alongside its ambitious renewable energy goals.

Fluence, as a prominent player in the energy storage field, acknowledges the significance of a consistent electrical system in meeting India's ambitious objectives. Together, India and Fluence can forge a dependable electrical system, paving the way for excellence and progress across the nation. We, at Fluence, are excited to further augment our commitments and bolster the Indian energy storage industry.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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AES Sending Love to Hawaii in the Wake of Recent Events…

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“Throughout history, the Hawaiian Islands have stood as a symbol of resilience and the unwavering determination of its people. Today, we witness this strength again as communities unite to support those in need. AES Hawaii stands in solidarity with our Hawaiian sisters and brothers, pledging to stand alongside Maui as they confront this challenging period. We recognize the magnitude of the devastation caused by the infamous fires, and it is during such times that we must unite to assist. Our sympathies extend to all those impacted by the destructive fire in Maui and their loved ones. Although we acknowledge that there are no words to ease the pain and sorrow they are experiencing adequately, we would like to offer assistance and aid to these individuals during this trying time.

Andrés Gluski, AES President and Chief Executive Officer

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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News Round-Up, August 28, 2023

A Phoenix's Resilience…

Former President Donald Trump finds himself embroiled in a multitude of legal battles, reminiscent of the destructive wildfires that plague our planet. These disputes, varying in intensity, resemble an unyielding inferno, with some posing greater challenges than others. Yet, President Trump has shown his resilience, refusing to be easily defeated and persisting with unwavering determination.

There is a growing concern across Europe about the possibility of President Trump returning to power. Many people fear that he may rise from the ashes like the legendary phoenix and once again wield his influence in the political arena. Understandably, people are worried about the potential consequences of such a scenario, given the impact of his previous presidency. The thought of him returning to power is like the lingering smoke of a smoldering wildfire - a constant reminder of the danger that could still be lurking just beneath the surface.

Ironically, it could be argued that President Trump's adversaries have unintentionally strengthened his position by transforming him into a symbol of martyrdom. In denying him a peaceful exit from the political stage, they have inadvertently created an apparently insurmountable obstacle, -a hard nut to crack. This unintended consequence has opened the door for his —-triumphant—- return.

The legal disputes faced by former US President Donald Trump have undoubtedly resulted in a multifaceted and financially draining process for the "good luck" of the defense lawyer of the former president. In today's world, it has become increasingly apparent that not all disputes are equally significant. Some have far-reaching consequences, impacting ordinary individuals without financial support, unfortunately. In light of this realization, it is essential to recognize that this is a challenging legal system task.

Finally, it is only through the revelation of the ultimate truth that we can effectively chart a course toward a more transparent future for the former or next president and the fairness of European governments.

Moreover, the only sure thing in life is that the final word will always be the second to last. As we publish this report, a new twist has emerged in the legal case against the former president. U.S. Judge Tanya Chutkan has scheduled the federal trial in Washington for March 4th—one day before "Super Tuesday," which could decide the Republican presidential nomination process. Chutkan's decision implies that Trump will probably have to face trials in at least three different criminal cases while he campaigns for his party's nomination to challenge Democratic President Joe Biden in the November 2024 election.

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Most read…

The U.S. is pumping oil faster than ever. Republicans don’t care

GOP presidential candidates are blaming pump prices on President Joe Biden’s clean energy policies, even though the U.S. is churning out record amounts of oil.

POLITICO:COM By BEN LEFEBVRE, 08/28/2023 

Great power rivalries: the case for realism

When assessing the geopolitical landscape, the primary aim of any state, whether democratic or authoritarian, is to ensure its own survival. That comes down to military might and alliances.

Le Monde Diplomatique by *John J Mearsheimer, Today

The World Is Contemplating a Second Trump Administration

Possibility that former president will win next year’s election has capitals across globe on edge

WSJ by Stacy Meichtry in Paris, Austin Ramzy in Hong Kong, and Bojan Pancevski in Berlin, August 28, 2023.

Hawaiian Electric says power lines were shut off hours before wildfire

Reuters, August 28, 20234 an hour ago

Bloom Energy Can Finally Live Up to Clean Power Buzz

Power-starved data center owners are knocking at the door of the Californian maker of fuel-cell electricity generators

WSJ By Carol Ryan, Aug. 28, 2023 

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“Throughout history, the Hawaiian Islands have stood as a symbol of resilience and the unwavering determination of its people. Today, we witness this strength again as communities unite to support those in need. AES Hawaii stands in solidarity with our Hawaiian sisters and brothers, pledging to stand alongside Maui as they confront this challenging period. We recognize the magnitude of the devastation caused by the infamous fires, and it is during such times that we must unite to assist. Our sympathies extend to all those impacted by the destructive fire in Maui and their loved ones. Although we acknowledge that there are no words to ease the pain and sorrow they are experiencing adequately, we would like to offer assistance and aid to these individuals during this trying time.

Andrés Gluski, AES President and Chief Executive Officer

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Image by Germán & Co. 

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The U.S. is pumping oil faster than ever. Republicans don’t care

GOP presidential candidates are blaming pump prices on President Joe Biden’s clean energy policies, even though the U.S. is churning out record amounts of oil.

POLITICO:COM By BEN LEFEBVRE, 08/28/2023 

The late-summer surge in gasoline prices is heightening the risks that inflation poses for President Joe Biden, and offering Republicans a new chance to pin the blame on his green agenda.

The GOP narrative has a major hole: U.S. oil production — already the highest in the world — is on track to set a new record this year, and will probably rise even more in 2024. But the ever-increasing flow of U.S. crude has failed to keep a lid on gasoline prices, showing once again that a global market drives the fuel prices that shape presidents’ political futures.

And that means events far beyond the nation’s borders will play a sizable role in voters’ verdict on “Bidenomics” — as global oil prices rise and fall in response to banking conditions in Europe, China’s slumping real estate market, Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and the latest maneuvers by Saudi Arabia.

“The U.S. consumer blames whoever is in the White House” for high gasoline prices, Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for financial advisory firm LPL Financial said in an interview. “Biden’s people have to be watching this despite a stronger economy, which is an irony.”

It’s not the outcome that some experts had hoped for from the United States’ rise to energy superpower. Wall Street Journal opinion columnist Walter Russell Mead predicted in 2018 that abundant U.S. energy supplies would enable energy markets to “shrug off geopolitical shocks,” while Ed Morse, a long-time oil market analyst, foresaw in 2015 U.S. oil production would drive prices down sharply and herald “the end of OPEC.”

Instead, while the United States’ reliance on OPEC for oil imports has diminished, the country’s fuel market is still dependent on decisions made at the oil cartel’s meetings in Vienna — no matter how much oil comes out of U.S. shale fields.

U.S. oil production is forecast to average an all-time high of 12.8 million barrels a day this year and keep growing to 13.1 million in 2024, the federal Energy Information Administration said in its latest forecast. That’s up from the most recent trough of 5 million barrels a day in 2008, and probably enough to help the U.S. to keep its title as the No. 1 global crude oil producer.

Global forces, meanwhile, could cause pump prices to ease next year, with the Paris-based International Energy Agency forecasting that oil supply next year will outstrip demand.

That hasn’t stopped GOP White House hopefuls from lambasting Biden and his energy policies, including the green incentives included in the climate law he signed a year ago.

In one campaign ad, former Vice President Mike Pence pretends to fill his pickup truck and blames Biden’s energy policy for “causing real hardship” for Americans, while ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has vowed to bring oil production back to the United States.

And Sen. Tim Scott (R.-S.C.) railed last month on the Biden administration, which he asserted “has shut down energy production in America.”

“Why won’t this President tap into our abundant energy resources here at home and bring down prices at the pump?” he asked.

In fact, though, oil production from federal lands and waters has risen on Biden’s watch, reaching past 3 million barrels per day last year. The high mark during President Donald Trump’s term was 2.75 million barrels a day.

That’s data the White House rarely trumpets since it contradicts Biden’s 2020 campaign pledge to end new drilling on federal land, something his administration has not done.

“We remain focused on prices for American consumers, and prices have come down significantly since last year,” a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said in an email. “We will continue to work with producers and consumers to ensure energy markets support economic growth and to lower prices for American consumers.”

Behind this rhetoric is the jump in the national average price for regular gasoline to $3.87 a gallon last week, up more than 30 cents in a month, according to the American Automobile Association. Prices had held near $3.50 for most of the year, but it may be a while before drivers see that level again, especially after an explosion forced the shutdown of the nation’s third largest refinery on Friday.

The price has caught the attention of drivers and political commentators, even if it’s far less dramatic than the surge to the all-time high of $5.02 per gallon in June 2022. The Biden administration responded at the time by releasing some 200 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, draining nearly half of the federal government’s stockpile, a move that the Treasury Department has credited with helping shave 40 cents a gallon off gasoline prices.

The U.S. wasn’t supposed to be this exposed to the global market’s whims.

The advent of fracking that kicked off the U.S. oil boom in the late 2000s raised hopes of a new era of so-called energy independence. In this scenario, the newly oil-rich United States could pull back from the Middle East, insulate itself from volatile market shifts and retreat into a comfortable shell of energy self-sufficiency.

The reality has been far different, said Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“People assumed [the shale boom] would bring a massive change in geopolitics and that this would fundamentally change the U.S. relationship with OPEC and we’d chart this path towards energy independence that would really upend energy geopolitics,” Cahill said in an interview. “That just hasn’t happened.

“We’re the largest oil producer in the world,” he said. “We’re the largest natural gas producer in the world. But the reality is that energy prices in the U.S. are still dependent on global markets.”

That’s because even as oil fields in states like Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota have propelled the United States to the top of the oil producer charts, regional markets still find it easier to import certain grades of crude oil from Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. The U.S. still imports about 40 percent of the oil it consumes, even though exports of crude and petroleum products continue to outstrip those shipments.

No matter how much oil the United States produces, it’s still a familiar story, said Amy Jaffe, a global affairs professor at New York University: Gasoline prices rise when the world’s major economies run hot, and fall when they’re not.

“We believed because the U.S. could drill and be successful that we were in this permanent age of abundance,” Jaffe said in an interview. ”But we’re still facing this fundamental question of how cyclical will this industry continues to be.”

The 2022 run-up in fuel prices occurred after a rare one-two punch when U.S. fuel demand rebounded after a pandemic-driven market crash, and after the invasion of Ukraine led European nations to cut imports from Russia, scrambling trade flows.

This summer’s rally, however, has largely been driven by the decision by OPEC and Russia to withhold supplies to ensure prices don’t weaken. And the cuts by Saudi Arabia in particular of 1 million barrels per day on top of the OPEC+ agreement have put a spotlight on Washington’s fraught relationship with the kingdom.

The United States’ growth transformation into a production heavyweight may lead some politicians to believe they could be more aggressive with Saudi Arabia when it came to human rights — Biden had promised in 2020 to make Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a “pariah” over the regime’s murder of a dissident journalist. But that attitude only goes so far once prices at the pump tick up, analysts said.

“The U.S./Saudi relationship has deteriorated since the U.S. has become less energy dependent on the Middle East, but they are still viewed as strategic partners,” Tamas Varga, market analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said via email. “Saudi Arabia plays an important role to represent U.S. interests in the region and the U.S. is a significant supplier of weapons to the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia, however, has its own agenda in the oil market which is contradictory to U.S. interest.”

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Image by Germán & Co.

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In international relations, better to be Godzilla than Bambi

Great power rivalries: the case for realism

When assessing the geopolitical landscape, the primary aim of any state, whether democratic or authoritarian, is to ensure its own survival. That comes down to military might and alliances.

Le Monde Diplomatique by *John J Mearsheimer, Today

Three decades ago, many experts in the West believed we had reached the end of history and that great-power war had been relegated to the dustbin of the past. That illusion has been shattered. The world faces not just one great-power rivalry, as it did during the cold war, but two: the US vs Russia in eastern Europe (over Ukraine) and the US vs China in East Asia (over Taiwan). Both security competitions could easily turn into hot wars.

In essence, there has recently been a great transformation in international politics, which is bad news for the West. What went wrong? What explains this change and where is the world headed? Answering these questions requires a theory of international relations: a general framework that can explain why states act as they do and help us make sense of a complicated and uncertain world

Realism is the best theory for understanding world politics. States are the key actors in the realist story, and they coexist in a world where there is no supreme authority that can protect them from each other. This situation forces them to pay close attention to the balance of power, because they understand that being weak can leave them vulnerable. Thus, states compete among themselves for power, which is not to say they do not cooperate when their interests are compatible. But relations among states — especially great powers — are competitive at their core. Moreover, realist theory acknowledges that war is an acceptable instrument of statecraft and that states sometimes start wars to improve their strategic position. As Clausewitz argues, war is a continuation of politics by other means.

Realism isn’t popular in the West

Realism is not popular in the West, where war is widely considered an evil that can only be justified as a means of self-defence, as it is in the UN charter. Politics by other means? No way. It is also unpopular because it is so pessimistic: it assumes that security competition among the great powers is an unalterable fact of life and inevitably leads to tragic results. Finally, realism maintains that all states — whether they are liberal democracies or not — act according to the same logic. In the West, however, most people believe that regime type matters greatly and that liberal democracies are the good guys while authoritarian states are the main instigators of war.

Unsurprisingly, liberal theory, which is the main alternative to realism, is privileged in the West. Nevertheless, the US has almost always acted according to the dictates of realism and disguised its behaviour with a more moral rhetoric. It allied with the Stalinist Soviet Union during the second world war, and it backed a host of ruthless autocrats during the cold war — Chiang Kai-shek in China, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in Iran, Rhee Syngman in South Korea, Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire, Anastasio Somoza in Nicaragua and Augusto Pinochet in Chile.

The one exception is the ‘unipolar moment’ (1991-2017), when both Democratic and Republican administrations abandoned realism and tried to create a global order based on the values of liberal democracy — rule of law, market economies and human rights — under the benign leadership of the US. Unfortunately, this strategy of ‘liberal hegemony’ was a near-total failure, and it played a major role in creating the troubled world of 2023. Had American policymakers adopted a realist foreign policy after the cold war ended in 1989, the world would be considerably less dangerous today.

Self-help world

There are different realist theories. The political scientist Hans Morgenthau famously argues that human nature drives states to pursue power. Leaders, he maintains, possess an animus dominandi — an innate desire to dominate others. In contrast, the principal driving force in my theory is the structure or architecture of the international system. Its defining features push states — especially the great powers — to compete relentlessly for power. In effect, states are trapped in an iron cage.

The starting point is recognising that states operate in an anarchic system, where there is no all-powerful protector to call upon if another state threatens them. Therefore, states must take care of themselves in what is essentially a self-help world. This task is complicated by two other aspects of the international system. All great powers have offensive military capabilities, although some more than others, which means they can cause considerable mutual damage. Furthermore, it is difficult if not impossible to be certain that another state has benign intentions, mainly because intentions — unlike capabilities — are hidden inside the minds of policymakers and cannot be fully discerned. It is even harder to anticipate what another state might do in the future, because one cannot know who will be in charge, and a state’s intentions will almost certainly change if the circumstances it is facing are altered.

Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin. I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interestsUS envoy to Moscow, 2008.

States operating in a self-help world where they might confront a powerful rival bent on attacking them are naturally going to fear each other, although the level of fear will vary across cases. The best way for a rational state to survive in such a dangerous world is to be especially powerful relative to other states, and certainly to make sure it is not weak. As the Chinese experience during the ‘century of national humiliation’ (1839-1949) shows, when a country is weak, more powerful states are likely to take advantage of it. In international relations, it is better to be Godzilla than Bambi.

The European Union might appear to be an exception, but it is not. It emerged under the protection provided by the American security umbrella, which made war among member states impossible and freed them from the need to worry about each other. This basic fact of life explains why European leaders of all stripes live in fear that the US will pivot to Asia and leave Europe in the rear-view mirror.

In short, great-power politics is characterised by relentless security competition, where states not only look for opportunities to gain relative power, but also seek to prevent the balance of power from shifting against them. This latter behaviour is called ‘balancing’, which can be done by building up one’s own power or forming an alliance against a dangerous opponent with other threatened states. In a realist world, power refers mainly to a state’s military capabilities, which ultimately depend on having an advanced economy and a large population.

Advantages of a regional hegemon

The ideal situation for a great power is to be a regional hegemon — to dominate its area of the world — while making sure that no other power, medium or great, is able to challenge it. The US is the paradigm of this logic at play. During the 18th and 19th centuries, it worked assiduously to achieve hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. During the 20th century, it helped prevent imperial Germany, imperial Japan, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union from becoming regional hegemons in either Asia or Europe.

Survival, of course, is the primary goal of states, because if a state does not survive, it cannot pursue any other goals, such as prosperity or spreading an ideology. Relatedly, great powers can cooperate if they have mutual interests and cooperation does not undermine their position in the balance of power. For example, the superpowers cooperated during the cold war in signing the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, although US-Soviet relations remained competitive at their core. Moreover, there was substantial economic intercourse among the European great powers before the first world war, but there was also significant security competition among those same countries, which trumped economic cooperation and eventually led to war. These examples point up that great-power cooperation always takes place in the shadow of security competition.

Some critics maintain that realism is dismissive of international institutions, which are the key building blocks of a rules-based international order. This view is incorrect: realists recognise that institutions are essential for waging security competition in an interdependent world — as NATO and the Warsaw Pact did during the cold war — and for facilitating economic and political cooperation — as the WTO and the UN do today. They emphasise, however, that the great powers write the institutions’ rules to suit their own interests, and under no circumstances can institutions coerce a great power to act in ways that threaten its security. In such cases, a great power will simply violate the rules or rewrite them in its favour.

That logic flies in the face of the widely held belief in the West that liberal democracies behave differently from authoritarian states. Authoritarian states, so the argument goes, are the real threat to the rules-based order and more generally the chief obstacle to creating a peaceful world. But this is not how international politics works. Regime type matters little in a self-help world where states constantly worry about their survival. The US is the quintessential liberal state, for example, but its leaders illegally attacked Yugoslavia in 1999 and Iraq in 2003, and waged a covert proxy war against Nicaragua during the 1980s. Great powers of all types act ruthlessly when they think their vital interests are threatened.

Some scholars argue that the ‘nuclear revolution’ has made realism less relevant today. Nuclear weapons, they suggest, guarantee a great power’s survival — who would dare attack the homeland of a nuclear-armed state? — thus eliminating the need to compete for power. Relatedly, they maintain that the fear of nuclear escalation will also deter two countries with nuclear arsenals from fighting a major conventional war. There is no evidence, however, that the great powers have ever embraced this logic. The Soviet Union and the US spent trillions of dollars competing for power throughout the cold war, and China, Russia and the US are doing the same today. These nuclear-armed great powers feared for their survival and prepared for conventional war against their rivals. This is not to deny that great-power war is less likely in a nuclear world, but it remains an ever-present threat, thus keeping realism as relevant as ever.

Where should the US fight?

Realism also suggests that the only areas of vital strategic interest to great powers — beside their own region — are those containing other great powers or an abundance of some critical resource on which the world economy depends. Thus, American realists maintained during the cold war that there were just three areas of the world outside the Western hemisphere where the US should prepare to fight: Europe, Northeast Asia, where the Soviet Union was located, and the oil-rich Persian Gulf. Almost every realist opposed the Vietnam war, because it was fought in Southeast Asia, a region of little strategic significance at that time. Today, however, Southeast Asia matters greatly to the US, because China has become a great power. This explains why Washington is prepared to defend the status quo in Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Liberalism, in contrast, does not prioritise among different regions of the world. Its primary goal is to spread democracy and capitalism as widely as possible. Although liberal rhetoric emphasises the evils of war, proponents of a liberal foreign policy are often willing to use force to achieve this ambitious objective. The Bush Doctrine, which aimed to democratise the greater Middle East at the end of a rifle barrel, was a manifestation of this. It is no accident that almost every prominent realist opposed the 2003 Iraq war. That war was the brainchild of neoconservatives, who are especially hawkish advocates of spreading liberalism abroad, and was widely supported by proponents of liberal hegemony.

Ironically, liberal approaches to foreign policy contain a decidedly illiberal element. At its core, liberalism emphasises the need for tolerance, because it recognises that individuals will never fully agree on the best way to live or be governed. Accordingly, liberal societies try to create space for individuals and groups to operate as much as possible according to their own beliefs. But when liberals turn to foreign policy, they act as if they know for certain what type of regime would be best for every country. Specifically, they believe the rest of the world should become like the West and they use the various tools at their disposal to push them in that direction. This illiberal approach to dealing with the world is doomed to fail, not only because there is no consensus about the ideal political system, but also because of realist logic. States are sovereign entities that defendtheir vital interests against threats, especially those which come from a competing state that is trying to change their system of government.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the bipolar world that underpinned the cold war gave way to a unipolar system centred on the US. Unipolarity then turned into multipolarity in around 2017, with China’s rise and the resurrection of Russian power. The US is still the most powerful country in this new world, but China, with its formidable economy and growing military might, is a peer competitor. Russia is clearly the weakest of the three. Two new rivalries have emerged in this multipolar system, each operating according to a different realist logic. Like the US-Soviet antagonism after the second world war, the US-China security competition is mainly about regional hegemony, even though it could, like the US-Soviet antagonism, spread worldwide. The current US-Russia rivalry is due not to any fear that Russia could dominate Europe, but rather to the US’s aggressive behaviour.

The US-China rivalry

Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, China was not considered a great power. It certainly had the population size to qualify, but it did not have the wealth needed to build sufficient military forces. That situation began changing in the early 1990s, when the Chinese economy started growing rapidly. Today, China has the second largest economy in the world and the capability to develop cutting-edge technologies. Predictably, Beijing is using its economic might to build up its military.

China’s goal is to become by far the most powerful state in Asia and to gradually push the US military out of East Asia, thereby establishing itself as a regional hegemon. Beijing is also building a blue-water navy, which indicates it is committed to projecting power all around the globe. In essence, China is imitating the US, which makes perfect sense as that is the best way for a country to maximise its security in an anarchic world. Chinese leaders have another reason for wanting to dominate Asia. They have territorial goals based on nationalist logic — like taking back Taiwan and dominating the South China Sea — that can only be achieved if China is a regional hegemon.

The US has long sought to prevent any other country from achieving regional hegemony, as it demonstrated repeatedly throughout the 20th century. Thus, it is fashioning a containment policy to prevent China from dominating Asia. That balancing effort has both a military and economic dimension.

Regarding the former, Washington is refashioning alliances originally forged to contain the Soviet Union into a coalition to contain China, and creating new arrangements to reinforce it. This campaign includes building — or reviving — security pacts like AUKUS (Australia, the UK and US) and the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: US, Australia, Japan and India), and strengthening the longstanding bilateral alliances the US has with Japan, the Philippines and South Korea.

Transatlantic rift

On the economic side, Washington seeks to limit China’s development of cutting-edge technologies in a bid to ensure that the US controls the commanding heights in this all-important sector. This economic competition could create a serious rift in transatlantic relations because European countries — which are already hurt by the cut-off of economic intercourse with Russia — are looking for customers in China.

China and the US are destined to compete ever more intensely for power in the foreseeable future. That struggle will be fuelled in part by the famous ‘security dilemma’, where what one side does to defend itself is interpreted by the other side as evidence of offensive intentions. There are two additional reasons this security competition will be especially dangerous. First, it centres on Taiwan, which almost every Chinese person considers sacred territory that China should control, but which the US is determined to keep as a de facto independent state allied with Washington.

Second, any future war between these bitter rivals is likely to be fought over islands in the waters off China’s coast, largely by air, missile and naval forces. It is not difficult to imagine plausible scenarios where a war breaks out in that geographical setting, even by accident. A China-US war on the Asian mainland would be far more deadly and thus much less likely, as was the case with a possible war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact in the heart of Europe during the cold war. A major land war in Asia therefore seems unlikely, but it will still take astute diplomacy on both sides to avoid one.

The US helped to create this perilous rivalry by ignoring realist principles. In the early 1990s the US faced no rival great powers and China was economically underdeveloped. As liberalism prescribes, American leaders embraced a policy of engaging with China: helping fuel its economic growth and seeking to integrate it into the international order. They assumed that a wealthy China would become a ‘responsible stakeholder’ in that American-dominated order and eventually evolve into a liberal democracy. In short, a powerful but democratic China would be a peaceful China that would not challenge the US.

Engagement was a colossal strategic blunder. If American policymakers had been guided by realist logic, they would not have sought to speed Chinese growth and would have tried to maintain the power gap between Washington and Beijing instead of reducing it.

The conventional wisdom in the West regarding the Ukraine war makes it sound like Russia is behaving in Europe the way China is acting in Asia. Putin is said to have imperial ambitions that begin with creating a greater Russia along the lines of the old Soviet Union and then re-conquering the former buffer countries of the Warsaw Pact, ultimately threatening the security of all Europe. Ukraine, which he purportedly aims to conquer and integrate into Russia, is his first but not his last target. In this view, what NATO is doing in Ukraine is containing Russian power, much the way it prevented the Soviet Union from dominating all of Europe during the cold war.

This story, no matter how often it is repeated, is a myth. There is no evidence that Putin wants to incorporate all of Ukraine into Russia or seeks to conquer any other country in eastern Europe. Furthermore, Russia does not have the military capability to achieve that ambitious goal, much less become a European hegemon.

While there is no question Russia attacked Ukraine, it is equally clear that the conflict was provoked by the US and its European allies when they decided to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s borders. They sought to bring Ukraine into NATO and the EU and turn it into a pro-Western liberal democracy. Russian leaders have repeatedly emphasised that this policy is an existential threat to Moscow and will not be tolerated. There is no reason to think they do not mean it.

The US ambassador to Moscow in April 2008, when the decision was made to bring Ukraine into NATO, said in a memo to then secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, ‘Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players ... I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.’ Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor at the time, opposed bringing Ukraine into NATO: ‘I was very sure ... that Putin [was] not going to just let that happen. From his perspective, that would be a declaration of war.’

The Ukraine conflict

The conflict in Ukraine began in February 2014, six years after NATO declared it would become a member. Putin subsequently tried to settle the conflict diplomatically by convincing the US, which was driving the policy, to abandon the idea of bringing Ukraine into the alliance. But Washington refused and instead doubled down at every turn — arming and training Ukraine’s military and including it in NATO military exercises. Fearing that Ukraine was fast becoming a de facto NATO member, Russia sent letters on 17 December 2021 to President Biden and NATO itself demanding a written commitment that Ukraine would not join the alliance and instead be a neutral state. Secretary of state Antony Blinken tersely replied on 26 January 2022, ‘There is no change; there will be no change.’ A month later, Russia attacked Ukraine.

From a realist standpoint, Moscow’s reaction to NATO expansion into Ukraine is a straightforward case of balancing against a dangerous threat. Putin is committed to preventing a military alliance dominated by the most powerful state in the world, which was a mortal foe of the Soviet Union, from making Ukraine, which ‘is on the doorstep of our house’, a member. In fact, Russia’s position is akin to America’s Monroe Doctrine, which says that no distant great power is allowed to station military forces in its backyard. Given that diplomacy failed to deal with what the Russians saw as an existential threat, Putin launched a preventive war aimed at keeping Ukraine out of NATO. Moscow views this as a war of self-defence, not a war of conquest. Of course, Ukraine and its neighbours see it quite differently. To say this is not to justify or condemn the war, but simply to explain why it happened.

Given the myth that Putin is committed to open-ended expansion, one might think NATO enlargement, too, was based on realist logic: the US and its allies were aiming to contain Russia. But that view would also be wrong. The decision to enlarge NATO was made in the mid-1990s, when Russia was militarily weak, and the US was well-positioned to force expansion on Moscow. Again, we see the perils of being weak in the international system. Nor did Russia pose a threat to Europe in 2008, when the decision was made to bring Ukraine into the alliance. So, there was no need to contain it then or now. Indeed, the US has a deep interest in pivoting out of Europe to East Asia, and enlisting Russia in the balancing coalition against China, not getting bogged down in a war in eastern Europe and driving the Russians into the arms of the Chinese.

Like the misguided policy of engagement with China, NATO enlargement was a component of the liberal hegemony project. The aim was to integrate eastern and western Europe, ultimately turning all of Europe into a giant zone of peace. Realists like George Kennan opposed NATO expansion because they recognised it would threaten Russia and lead to disaster.

Europe would be in far better shape today if realist logic had carried the day and NATO had not expanded eastward, and especially not committed itself to eventually including Ukraine. But the die is now cast: unipolarity has given way to multipolarity and the US and its allies are now engaged in serious geopolitical rivalries with both China and Russia. These new cold wars are at least as dangerous as the original one, and maybe more so.

*John J Mearsheimer is professor of political science at the University of Chicago. He is the co-author (with Sebastian Rosato) of How States Think: the Rationality of Foreign Policy, Yale University Press, 2023.

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The World Is Contemplating a Second Trump Administration

Possibility that former president will win next year’s election has capitals across globe on edge

WSJ by Stacy Meichtry in Paris, Austin Ramzy in Hong Kong, and Bojan Pancevski in Berlin, August 28, 2023.

President Donald Trump appearing on a Beijing TV screen as U.S. votes were counted in November 2020. PHOTO: KEVIN FRAYER/GETTY IMAGES

The U.S. presidential election is more than a year away, but allies and adversaries around the world have already begun to contemplate—and even plan for—the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

For many foreign capitals, the possibility of a second Trump administration is a source of anxiety. Allies from Paris to Tokyo regard Trump as an erratic leader with little interest in cultivating long-term ties to counter Russian and Chinese expansionism.

Others, including Beijing and Moscow, see potential benefits from Trump, whom they view as a transactional leader who might be willing to strike deals to ease tensions in hot spots such as Ukraine and Taiwan, according to analysts. Nationalist and populist politicians also voice support for Trump’s ambitions.

Policy makers and politicians were reluctant to make public statements that might rile the current administration or an incoming one. But officials interviewed by The Wall Street Journal did share their thoughts about what a Trump return to the world stage would mean for geopolitics.

Among the most widespread fears is that Trump would spark a global trade war. The candidate has threatened to impose fresh tariffs on all goods imported into the U.S.—hitting friend and foe alike—a move that risks sowing divisions in trans-Atlantic relations in a time of war.

Trump has also threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a move that his former national security adviser John Bolton recently described as a near certainty if he is elected again.

Some governments are moving to lock in military assistance to Ukraine to strengthen security there in case a newly elected Trump scales back U.S. support. Members of the Group of Seven wealthy nations are trying to reach bilateral agreements with Kyiv to provide weapons that meet NATO standards.

“There’s a strong possibility Trump might be re-elected,” said Benjamin Haddad, a French lawmaker from President Emmanuel Macron’s party. “It forces us Europeans to read the writing on the wall and take more responsibility.”

With Russia digging in for a long fight in Ukraine, the Kremlin is waiting out the Biden administration in the hope that Trump, if elected, would back away from helping Kyiv. U.S. support for Taiwan could waver under Trump, according to analysts, if Beijing dangles concessions on trade.

“Trump values U.S. allies less, and Beijing therefore expects that U.S. alliances and coalitions would fray and ease pressure on China,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Those scenarios send a chill down the spine of allies in Europe and the Pacific.

The Biden administration has worked to corral allies in Asia, deepening military cooperation and helping mend relations between Japan and South Korea. And Washington has sent billions of dollars in arms and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, allowing Kyiv to hold its own on the battlefield against Russia.

French officials have been warning European allies that the possibility of Trump’s return requires the continent to significantly expand arms production, from artillery to missile defense systems, so it can supply Ukraine on its own.

Eastern European countries and France are also pushing allies to admit Ukraine into NATO, a move that would significantly raise the stakes with Russia by providing Kyiv with security guarantees.

“We’ve been lucky with Ukraine to have an American administration that helped us,” Macron recently told Le Point magazine. “Can we let Ukraine lose and Russia win? The answer is no…We have to hold out over time.”

Military expenditures are rising across the continent, but Europe has struggled to wean itself off American hardware. Macron was blindsided when a German-led coalition announced plans to spend billions of euros on a program to buy Patriot missile systems from the U.S., snubbing a rival system developed by France, Italy and the U.K.

Macron has long been skeptical that President Biden’s election in 2020 signaled the end of the Trump era, according to Biden. Biden has recounted arriving at his first G-7 summit as president, declaring to his peers: “America’s back.” Macron replied: “For how long?”

Macron’s office declined to comment.

Trump has vowed to impose sweeping new tariffs, stating in a recent interview that he would set an automatic 10% tariff on all foreign imports to the U.S.

“When companies come in and they dump their products in the United States, they should pay, automatically, let’s say a 10% tax,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business. “I do like the 10% for everybody.”

Economists were quick to warn that Trump’s proposal could ignite a global trade war and raise prices for U.S. consumers. The White House slammed Trump’s comments, saying Biden strongly opposes the plan.

Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, is focused on forging channels of communication in an effort to avoid the experience of 2016, when Trump’s election took world leaders by surprise. The government of Angela Merkel, who was then chancellor, struggled to gain access to the White House as Washington aimed a barrage of tariffs at Germany and other countries in Europe. Relations between Trump and Merkel quickly soured.

Leading members of the three parties of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition have been jetting across the Atlantic ever since they took power in late 2021, meeting with GOP officials and Trump confidants. A key Scholz aide, Wolfgang Schmidt, has made regular visits to Washington, forging links with key Republicans. In September, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will embark on a 10-day visit to the U.S., including an extended visit to Texas, a GOP bastion, to familiarize herself with the party.

Some governments welcome the possibility of Trump’s return. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who maintains a friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and opposes Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, has said on numerous occasions he hopes Trump wins the next election, even as Trump’s legal woes have mounted. “Keep on fighting, Mr. President! We are with you,” Orban wrote in a recent social-media post.

For China, Trump was the leader who ignited trade tensions with the U.S. while a Biden presidency held out the prospect of a return to the previous era of relations, when many U.S. policy makers supported free trade in the belief that it would liberalize China.

But Biden maintained much of his predecessor’s tough policies toward Beijing. Tariffs remained in place. Restrictions on Chinese technology companies expanded, including a U.S. ban on sales of advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment to China last year.

“On policy substance, even though Trump kicked off the trade war, it was Biden that implemented policy more effectively and was able to bring in important allies that Trump had alienated,” said Mary Gallagher, a political-science professor at the University of Michigan.

South Korea and Japan this year turned the page on years of historical quarrels, allowing for deeper military coordination with Washington.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol forged a personal bond with Biden during an official state visit in April to the White House and on a recent trip to Camp David. That contrasts with Trump, who criticized Seoul for not paying enough for the roughly 28,500 U.S. military personnel stationed in South Korea. Trump even suggested a troop drawdown.

Yorizumi Watanabe, a former Japanese diplomat, said he expects support for Trump to rise in Japan if he moves decisively to calm tensions with China. “When all is said and done, we need a strong American president.”

In the Middle East, the leaders of Israel and Saudi Arabia are weighing whether their push to establish diplomatic ties have a better shot with Biden in office or Trump. While leaders in both countries have had chilly relations with Biden, they are wrestling with the possibility that the Democratic president might be better positioned than Trump to broker a pact.

Trump remains broadly popular with the Israeli public and aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which bills itself as the most right-wing and religious in the country’s history. But Trump was critical of Netanyahu after the prime minister congratulated Biden on his 2020 victory.

In an interview this summer, Netanyahu praised Trump, but he declined to say whether he had been in close contact with him. “I think he did things that were superb for Israel’s security,” Netanyahu said. “So I value that.”

Iran is moving to release U.S. detainees in a bid to gain access to around $6 billion in oil revenue. The money, which was effectively frozen in South Korea under U.S. sanctions, is being transferred through Switzerland to Qatar for possible release to Iran.

This month, Iran moved four U.S. citizens from prison to house arrest, the first step in a hoped-for prisoner release agreement between Tehran and the Biden administration. Trump as president withdrew from the 2015 deal that placed limits on Iran’s nuclear program in return for lifting sanctions. He ratcheted up sanctions on Iran and criticized the release of frozen Iranian funds by the Obama administration.

Securing the funds is now a key objective for Tehran, a visible signal to ordinary Iranians that the regime is seeking to improve the country’s troubled economy, said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. “They’re trying to get as many concessions as they can out of the Biden team,” he said.

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Hawaiian Electric says power lines were shut off hours before wildfire

Reuters, August 28, 20234 an hour ago

Homes damaged by fire are seen in Lahaina on the island of Maui in Hawaii, U.S., August 14, 2023. REUTERS/Jorge Garcia/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

Hawaiian Electric's (HE.N) shares jumped more than 40% on Monday after the utility said its power lines in West Maui had been shut down for more than six hours before wildfires started in the area during the afternoon.

The company's shares were trading at $13.55, after at least two trading halts since the markets opened on Monday. The stock has lost more than half its value since the Aug. 8 wildfires.

Hawaiian Electric said the lawsuit filed against it by the county of Maui was "factually and legally irresponsible," pointing to the county's responsibility in the Hawaii wildfires.

The county of Maui last week sued Hawaiian Electric, accusing the utility of acting negligently by failing to shut down its equipment despite warnings that hurricane winds could knock power lines down, sparking wildfires.

The county said downed power lines started the wildfires that destroyed the historic town of Lahaina earlier this month, killing at least 115 people and displacing hundreds more.

Hawaiian Electric said on Monday that a morning fire on Aug. 8 caused by power lines that fell in high winds was subsequently reported "100% contained" and later declared "extinguished" by the Maui County Fire Department.

The utility said another afternoon fire started in the same area more than six hours after all of its power lines in West Maui had been de-energized, which could not be contained by the fire department and spread out of control toward Lahaina.

"We were surprised and disappointed that the County of Maui rushed to court even before completing its own investigation," said Shelee Kimura, president and CEO of Hawaiian Electric.

The lawsuit alleging negligence was "particularly troublesome," Wells Fargo analyst Jonathan Reeder said on Friday, adding that the brokerage viewed the lawsuit as an attempt to shift blame rather than sticking to an earlier narrative that it was a weather-induced tragedy.

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Bloom Energy Can Finally Live Up to Clean Power Buzz

Power-starved data center owners are knocking at the door of the Californian maker of fuel-cell electricity generators

WSJ By Carol Ryan, Aug. 28, 2023 

Data centers can’t get enough power from the main grid, even before generative AI makes them hungrier for electricity. It’s good news for one Californian clean energy stock.

Bloom Energy BE 2.01%increase; green up pointing triangle, generated a lot of excitement when it went public in 2018 and its shares surged more than 60% on their first day of trading. But the stock has turned out to be a disappointing investment, delivering average annual shareholder returns of minus 9% since that first close, compared with the 10% gains of the S&P 500 over the same period.

The fast-growing business has never managed to turn a profit, although it has ambitious plans for a 15% operating margin by 2025. One reason is that the promising technologies Bloom Energy is betting on, such as green hydrogen and carbon capture, are taking longer than expected to develop. The company sells electrolyzers that split water to produce hydrogen, but orders in this part of its business aren’t expected to be significant until 2025 at the earliest. 

Demand from data centers will come sooner. Bloom Energy makes fuel-cell servers that generate electricity on site, so customers can be less dependent on the traditional grid. They run on natural gas or biogas, and users will be able to switch to green hydrogen once there is more plentiful supply. Hospitals and military facilities that can’t risk a power outage have been early adopters of on-site electricity generation.  

These “micro grids” could solve a major problem for power-sucking data centers. In Northern Virginia, which is the world’s most important data center market, the state’s main utility company recently said it could take up to three years to build the transmission lines necessary to meet demand for new data center projects.

The same problem is cropping up in Europe. Amsterdam and Dublin have slowed or halted some new data center projects because their local electricity grids can’t cope. Data centers and data transmission networks consume around 3% of the world’s electricity, based on data from the International Energy Agency. This is expected to at least double as more smart devices are connected to the internet and generative AI takes off. 

Constraints on the mainstream electricity supply should make Bloom Energy’s product more appealing. The company has struggled to pick up business in states such as Texas, where very cheap grid electricity makes Bloom’s power uncompetitive. This may change over time if companies are willing to pay a bit extra for reliable electricity, or as wait times to get connected to main power lines grow longer. 

“Grid congestion is becoming a bigger problem. If you’re a data center or hospital that needs 24/7 power now, you will be looking for alternatives,” says Sangita Jain, analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets. 

Growing demand from data centers isn’t the only challenge that traditional power suppliers face. At this year’s Edison Electric Institute conference, Elon Musk told utility bosses that electricity demand is set to triple as more electric cars hit the road and industrial processes are electrified to help companies reduce their fossil fuel use.  

And climate change will make the grid less reliable, as storms and wildfires damage overhead lines more frequently. Based on the latest data from the Energy Information Administration, U.S. electricity customers experienced seven hours of power interruptions in 2021 on average, almost double the levels seen a decade ago. Because of these stresses, the U.S. market for micro grids is expected to grow by 19% a year through 2027, according to Wood Mackenzie research.

Meanwhile, Bloom Energy’s valuation has come down after several years of disappointment. The company’s enterprise value is equivalent to 2.5 times projected sales, compared with eight times in early 2021, when clean energy stocks were on a tear.

And losses are narrowing, thanks to rapid growth. The company expects a positive adjusted operating margin this year, and free cash flow is forecast to follow next year, according to FactSet. That and the roughly $900 million of cash on Bloom’s balance sheet limit the risk that it needs to raise additional funds from shareholders. 

Investors seem to have become resigned to disappointment from Bloom just as its focus on a promising growth market is finally showing signs of paying off.

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Rising Long-Term Rates Loom Over Autumn on Wall Street… (WSJ)

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Ilustrartions by ALEXANDRA CITRIN-SAFADI/WSJ

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WSJ, By Karen Langley, August 27, 2023

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Futures markets show a growing expectation that interest rates could stay higher for longer, exerting pressure on stocks markets show a growing expectation that interest rates could stay higher for longer, exerting pressure on stocks

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Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated speech Friday did little to resolve the conflict gripping markets late this summer: whether a rapid climb in interest rates spells doom for the surprising 2023 stock-market rally.

The Federal Reserve chair said inflation remains too high and officials are open to raising rates again, if needed, in his address at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium. He suggested that interest rates could stay high for the foreseeable future, keeping borrowing costs elevated and, in turn, pressuring stocks as investors more deeply discount the value of future corporate earnings.

The message wasn’t terribly different from his previous comments, analysts and investors said. But it wasn’t music to the ears of the many portfolio managers who have been crossing their fingers that the fastest rate cycle in decades is finally at an end. 

Stocks rose Friday afternoon, a rare advance in an August slog for U.S. indexes, but futures markets showed a growing expectation that rates could stay higher for longer. Higher yields typically dent the attractiveness of risky investments such as stocks by providing opportunities for returns elsewhere in the markets.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled during his address Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Wyoming that additional action on raising interest rates could be necessary. Photo: Nathan Howard/Associated Press

“At what point does the bond market provide competition to the stock market in the eyes of investors?” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US.

Although U.S. indexes remain in the green for the year, this month has been difficult for investors in riskier assets. Signs of continued strength in the U.S. economy, a flood of Treasury debt sales and expectations that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer lifted government bond yields to decade-plus highs.

Traders on Friday assigned a 54% probability to the central bank lifting rates again by the end of the year, up from the 32% chance they estimated a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. 

Investors are also foreseeing a longer horizon before the central bank starts to reverse course. By next June, traders see a 62% chance that the Fed will have cut rates from current levels, down from the 83% probability they assigned one week earlier.

Investors will parse a new release Thursday of the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, as well as Friday’s monthly jobs report, as they try to anticipate the market’s next turn. They will also review earnings reports from the likes of Best Buy, Salesforce and Dollar General. 

The creeping shift in the rates picture coincides with signs that the AI trade is fizzling. Nvidia, the graphics-chip maker at the heart of the AI boom, gave another blockbuster forecast on Wednesday while reporting record sales for the latest quarter. But the numbers failed to power a broader market rally. Some analysts have suggested that even a very rosy earnings picture is reflected in the shares.

The recent climb in long-term bond yields, meanwhile, has accentuated concerns that the stock market as a whole is trading at lofty valuations that leave it vulnerable to disappointing news. While buzz about AI and growing confidence in the economy have driven stocks higher this year, forecasts for corporate earnings have risen more modestly. The stronger growth in share prices has left the market looking richly valued compared with history.

“U.S. stocks are really in a difficult position,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds. “They’ve been bid up to the point where the earnings multiple is extended and fundamentals will have to validate that move.”

That is especially true, many investors argue, given the recent climb in long-term interest rates. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to as high as 4.339% in recent days, its highest settle since 2007 and up from 3.956% at the end of July. Rising yields drive up borrowing costs throughout the economy and tend to reduce the prices that investors are willing to pay for investments, such as stocks, that are valued based on future cash flows.

Some analysts place a particular significance on moves in real yields, a measure of the return on Treasury bonds that is adjusted for inflation. Based on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, real yields recently hit 2%, a level not seen since 2009. 

Since companies are often able to pass along higher input costs to customers by raising their own prices, these analysts believe that real yields are the appropriate rate to use in gauging stock valuations. Others say real rates are especially important because they show the true cost of money in the economy, aside from fluctuating inflation.

In any case, rising interest rates threaten share prices by offering investors competing ways to earn a return—a major shift in the financial landscape after years of rock-bottom rates led many to believe there were no meaningful alternatives to stocks. Higher rates also ding the worth of future earnings in widely used pricing models. The result, if the market accepted those trimmed-down prices, would be stocks trading at lower multiples of their projected earnings.

“Valuations at some point are going to have to acknowledge the move in interest rates and the real rates,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “As your cost of capital goes up, your valuation multiples go down. It is just math.”

The broad stock index is trading at 18.6 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, according to FactSet. That is up from 16.6 at the start of the year and above the 15.8 multiple at which it has traded on average over the past 20 years.

“In a 2% real-yield world, can you justify a 19 multiple on the market? It seems a little rich,” Donabedian said.

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Image: Germán & Co

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Utilities Are Becoming a Risky Business Thanks to Climate Change

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Image by Germán & Co

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TIME BY JUSTIN WORLAND, AUGUST 24, 2023 

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It’s been a long-standing investor assumption for decades: the electric utility sector acts as a ballast in a well-balanced portfolio. Investor-owned utilities are generally less volatile than companies in other sectors, and they tend to generate consistent profits, which they return to shareholders via dividends.

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The Maui wildfires, which killed more than 100 people and caused billions in damages, are the latest in a string of similar catastrophes to test that assumption. The cause of the devastating inferno in Hawaii remains under investigation, but residents have suggested that the local utility’s power lines may have come into contact with dry vegetation, sparking the fire. If that turns out to be the case, Hawaiian Electric Industries may be held liable for billions in damages, a sum that could wipe out equity investors in potential bankruptcy proceedings. As of Aug. 24, the company’s stock was down nearly 70% from a month ago and ratings agencies have downgraded the company to junk status.

This wouldn’t be the first time that a wildfire has financially devastated a utility. In 2019, Pacific Gas & Electric, a utility that provides electricity for much of California, declared bankruptcy after being held liable for $30 billion in wildfire damages caused by the company’s powerlines. In June, Colorado officials released a report laying at least partial blame on Xcel Energy, a Colorado electric utility, for fires that destroyed more than 1,000 homes in Boulder County in 2021. The company has since said that it faces at least eight lawsuits stemming from the fire and that the potential damages could exceed what its insurance will cover.

Other utilities in wildfire zones are disclosing similar risks. Edison International, which provides electricity to much of Southern California, noted in a regulatory filing this year that it is working to reduce the risk of fires caused by its equipment but that insurance may not be sufficient to cover the costs of such events. Similarly, Berkshire Hathaway Energy Company, another west-coast operator, said in a December regulatory filing that its financial performance also depends on reducing the risk of and effectively insuring against potential wildfires caused by its infrastructure.

This growing risk for utilities is concerning for investors. The sector in the U.S. has a total market cap of more than $1.5 trillion, according to data from Fidelity, and is a component of many pensions and retirement accounts. (California pension funds CalPERS and CalSTRS both lost tens of millions of dollars in the PG&E bankruptcy, for example).

But there are broader lessons to draw for both investors and companies. For investors, the utility sector’s climate woes should serve as a reminder that climate change will challenge long held assumptions about risk and return. Agriculture, energy, and insurance, for example, all face steep climate-related risks. That’s not to say that these sectors will become uninvestable. To the contrary, companies in these industries will require capital to adjust to climate change. But it does mean investors should think of these sectors and how to assess their potential risk and return a little differently.

Businesses across all sectors can take lessons from utilities’ recent experience. For years, as wildfire risk grew, utility companies moved slowly to implement adaptation plans that would cut their risk. Taking a short term view, it’s easy to understand why. Such measures—like burying power lines underground or installing stronger poles—are costly and can disrupt operations. But those short-term costs pale in comparison to the long-term cost of the wildfires we’re seeing today and will continue in the coming years. Across sectors, executives would be well served to look at their operations and ask: what climate risk should I be adapting to right now? It may save them in the long run.

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Image: Germán & Co

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Fluence Energy in the Amazing Voyage of India's Metamorphosis…

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Courtesy of Fluence

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By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, August 26, 2023

India, a land of vibrant colours, rich traditions, marvelous cuisine, and diverse cultures, is embarking on an extraordinary journey of metamorphosis- a transformation that will redefine its energy landscape.

India's transformation over the past seventy years is nothing short of remarkable. Once classified as a third-world country reliant on Western aid, India has ascended to a flourishing IT hub and become the world's start-up centre.

India's reputation underwent an incredible metamorphosis, departing from the Western world's portrayal of snake charmers, cows roaming the streets, and individuals travelling on elephant backs. These outdated stereotypes no longer represent the reality of modern India.

India has gained recognition in various fields, showcasing its proficiency and expertise. The country has made significant advancements in space technology, telecommunications, agriculture, energy production, and biotechnology. These strides have placed India on the global map and cemented its position as a formidable player.

One of the most outstanding measures of India's progress is the overwhelming number of internet users. With more than 750 million users, India has wholeheartedly embraced the digital era and now reaps the rewards of its advancements. This vast user base is indicative of the increasing connectivity and accessibility of technology throughout the country.

India's recent achievement of landing on the moon's southern pole stands testimony to its determination, tenacity, and adaptability to evolving circumstances. The exceptional development and growth of the nation can be attributed to the collaborative efforts of the government, private sector and skilled individuals.

The Indian government, in particular, has played a crucial role in driving this outstanding progress. Through its targeted efforts, India has implemented effective policies and initiatives that have propelled the nation to unprecedented heights. One such example is the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), which has consistently demonstrated its competence and innovation in space exploration. The recent successful moon landing vividly demonstrates India's scientific and technological capabilities.

Moreover, India's private sector has aided the country's transformation. Committed to investing in the nation's growth, Indian enterprises have played a crucial role in enhancing vital infrastructure and promoting innovation. They have shown impressive adaptability, understanding worldwide opportunities and greatly contributing to India's economic strength.

Julian Nebreda, Fluence's President and CEO

During his recent trip to India, Julian Nebreda, Fluence's President and CEO, acknowledged the extensive potential of the Indian market and its impressive clean energy objectives. With its skilled workforce committed to innovation and a resolute focus on renewable energy targets, India is rapidly becoming a leader in the international energy transformation. Understanding the importance of enhancing energy storage capabilities to support this transition, Julian held productive discussions with crucial stakeholders during his visit.

In a video, Mr Julian Nebreda shares the valuable insights he gained from these discussions, shedding light on the path forward for India's energy sector. He emphasises the critical role that energy storage systems, particularly Fluence's, play in ensuring a robust and reliable electric system. Julian's visit to India showcased Fluence's commitment to supporting its energy needs alongside its ambitious renewable energy goals.

Fluence, as a prominent player in the energy storage field, acknowledges the significance of a consistent electrical system in meeting India's ambitious objectives.

Together, India and Fluence can forge a dependable electrical system, paving the way for excellence and progress across the nation.

We, at Fluence, are excited to further augment our commitments and bolster the Indian energy storage industry.

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