"EXCLUSIVE: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz foresees a victory for Joe Biden in the forthcoming US presidential election."

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Amid a profound political and economic crisis in Germany, the German Chancellor remarked during an interview with POLITICO EU that Biden "knows exactly what he is doing" and is likely to secure victory in the upcoming election…

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President Donald Trump adopted a strong position against Vladimir Putin concerning the construction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. Artwork credited to Germán & Co.

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During an interview at the G7 summit, Olaf Scholz expressed confidence in Biden's ability to offer crucial leadership amidst the intricate challenges confronting the assembly of world leaders. Image credit: Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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POLITICO EU by Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing and Jan Philipp Burgard, 06/15/2024

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated strong support and confidence in U.S. President Joe Biden’s leadership amid mounting concerns about Biden’s mental acuity and the specter of former President Donald Trump’s return to office.

In an interview with Axel Springer media outlets on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Italy on Saturday, Scholz made assurances that Biden “knows exactly what he is doing,” and can provide critical leadership as the group of global leaders faces a complex web of issues, including multiple conflagrations and hotly-contested elections that threaten to upend the international status quo. POLITICO is owned by Axel Springer.

“I think that Joe Biden is someone who is very clear, who knows exactly what he is doing and who is one of the most experienced politicians in the world, especially when it comes to international politics,” Scholz said, praising the president’s presence at the G7 conference. “In a difficult situation like this, where a war is taking place right here in Europe, after Russia invaded Ukraine, where many, many other conflicts are raging around the world, this is an asset, a good thing, and therefore I can only say that this is a man who knows exactly what he is doing.”

Scholz’s comments come at a time when the U.S. and its international allies are on heightened alert as global conflicts — including Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza — continue to escalate, and complex problems like climate change become more urgent.

In the same interview, Scholz addressed concerns that Germany is blocking the EU’s latest round of sanctions against Russia, assuring that the package “is not blocked,” but rather under discussion.

Adding to the uncertainty of the moment, recent EU elections point to a swing to the far-right, leading to concerns about continued international support for Ukraine.

The looming U.S. presidential election also casts a shadow over the G7 meeting, as Biden faces an American electorate anxious about inflation and immigration and frustrated with his waffling foreign policy in Gaza and Ukraine.

Should Trump prevail over Biden in November, the former president has promised to all but toss the U.S.’ international commitments out the window, including threatening to withdraw from NATO if partners “don’t pay up.”

Trump’s NATO comments have drawn much discussion from leaders about the U.S.’ possible abdication of international responsibility, but Scholz appeared to brush off those concerns.

“I think it is very likely that the current president could win the election,” Scholz said, adding that he thinks the rampant speculation over the outcome of the U.S. election is “a bit strange.”

Underscoring his faith in Biden’s leadership, Scholz pointed to strides in both domestic and foreign policy during his presidency, which he believes strengthen Biden’s electoral odds.

“He has pursued a policy that has led to proper economic development in the country, that has helped to ensure that peace and security are in good hands and that the U.S. is actually playing its role in the world,” Scholz said. “And third, of course, because he is committed to togetherness and cohesion in his country.”

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Blogging is hard work, but it's incredibly rewarding when you receive a "like" or a "retweet." For the past week, on "X", actions like "liking" or "retweeting" a post have been made confidential. These simple gestures remain Completely free of any charge and offering tremendous support to us, we appreciate your solidarity in advance.

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1803610827670560853

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Thank you for your kind contributions…

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Donate

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Solar Energy Faces Cloudy Prospects on Warehouse Rooftops…

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"Solar Energy Faces Cloudy Prospects on Warehouse Rooftops…

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The Wall Street Journal, authored by Liz Young, dated June 18, 2024.

Industrial real-estate companies have been showing more interest lately in the roofs of their structures, where warehouse operators are looking to cut energy costs, reduce emissions and even make money from the sprawling and mostly unused space by installing solar panels. 

Matt Schlindwein is taking his time adopting the technology, however. The managing partner of East Brunswick, N.J.-based industrial real-estate firm Greek Real Estate Partners said a fraction of the more than 300 warehouses he manages in the Northeast have solar panels on their roofs. 

That’s largely because the highly-touted benefits of solar power run up against serious costs as the panels are brought in: The installations are expensive, he said, and there’s a risk that the heavy panels could damage the building. 

“Number one for a tenant occupying a large-scale industrial warehouse building is a good floor, not a leaky roof,” Schlindwein said. For the past decade, “the amount of benefit that the landlord could have from doing solar was limited,” he said.

Schlindwein isn’t the only real-estate executive with concerns about the hot technology. Warehouse operators across the U.S. have been cautious about installing the panels on their roofs, even as companies have gotten attention for installations on shopping malls, self-storage buildings and distribution centers.  

Commercial buildings in the U.S. installed 1,913 megawatts of solar power in 2023, up from 1,034 megawatts installed in 2014, according to trade group Solar Energy Industries Association and research firm Wood Mackenzie. That compared to 40,290 megawatts installed nationwide last year across all residential, commercial, community and utility projects. 

Low electricity prices and high costs for the green technology have made it difficult for landlords to justify the investment, industry experts say. Structuring the deals can be complicated, with landlords reluctant to take on the cost of an installation when the financial payoff may come years after the average five-year tenant warehouse lease.

Schlindwein said deals involving solar installations have gotten more creative. He’s been setting up more solar-panel arrays over the past two years under agreements with solar-energy operators that lease the roof space directly from the landlord, for instance. Those companies set up and manage the panels and send the energy generated to local utility companies and customers. 

That deal structure offsets some of the risk by creating a new source of revenue, Schlindwein said. 

“It’s enough that it’s motivating to want to consider doing it,” he said. “You still have the same concerns that you used to have, but you’re getting enough of a benefit that you’re willing to overcome those concerns and make the jump and do it.” 

For warehouse operators, solar installations offer a possible solution to a longstanding problem: how to make use of the sometimes-vast acreage on top of their buildings. In addition to solar panels, some developers have added parking to roofs or designed skylights to bring in natural light and cut electricity costs. 

Prologis, the world’s largest industrial real-estate operator, has installed more than 500 megawatts of solar power across its portfolio as it works toward a goal of generating a gigawatt of solar power worldwide by 2025. But the solar installations still represent just 5% of the company’s buildings worldwide, said Vibhu Kaushik, global head of utilities and energy storage at Prologis.

“We have a lot of room to go,” Kaushik said.

Kaushik said the warehouse’s location determines whether the math works. 

In Illinois, for example, electricity cost about 11 cents per kilowatt hour for commercial customers as of March, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Kaushik said that’s less expensive than solar power in that state.

By contrast, electricity in California cost nearly 24 cents per kilowatt hour in March, according to the EIA, while Kaushik said solar power there costs dramatically less.

“States where energy is expensive, solar will pencil out easier. Where energy prices are still cheap, it may not,” he said. “You can come up with a handful of states across the U.S.—you can count them on your fingers—that it actually pencils out.”

Other factors are beyond developers’ control. The return on investment also depends on how sunny it is in a particular location, Kaushik said, noting solar panels produce far more energy on average in Southern California than in Seattle.

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In this edition, you can read about the final blow to Chinese 'neutrality' on the Ukraine war with the dismissal of the Swiss peace conference, and how Beijing's commitment to Russia has reached new heights. (POLITICO EU editorial today)

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Blogging is hard work, but it's incredibly rewarding when you receive a "like" or a "retweet." For the past week, on "X", actions like "liking" or "retweeting" a post have been made confidential. These simple gestures remain Completely free of any charge and offering tremendous support to us, we appreciate your solidarity in advance.

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1803364266650571154

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

Workart by Germán & Co

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Final blow to Chinese ‘neutrality’ on Ukraine war

With the dismissal of the Swiss peace conference, Beijing’s commitment to Russia has reached new heights…

POLITICO EU by *Viking Bohman, Patrik Andersson, and Hugo von Essen, June 19, 2024.

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*Viking Bohman is an analyst at the Swedish National China Centre currently pursuing a PhD at the Fletcher School, Tufts University. Patrik Andersson is an analyst at the Swedish National China Centre, and his research has featured in publications such as the Journal of Current Chinese Affairs and the Extractive Industries and Society. Hugo von Essen is an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS), where he leads the SCEEUS Eastern Europe Policy Project.

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China’s sympathy for Russia was already clear to most observers at the outset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Less discussed, however, is the extent to which Beijing’s support for Moscow has grown since. This was made painfully clear in the lead-up to the Swiss peace summit on Ukraine last weekend.

While some European leaders are eager to involve China in efforts to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, much to their disappointment, Beijing declined to participate in the peace conference, citing its lack of participation and “recognition from both Russia and Ukraine.”

Following this announcement, in the run-up to the gathering, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed dismay about China’s absence, as well as Beijing actively pressuring other countries to not participate. Russia was “using Chinese diplomats” to “disrupt the peace summit,” Zelenskyy said. And though he didn’t specify which countries were targeted, in early May, China’s designated envoy for the conflict had visited nations like Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and Kazakhstan.

It would, of course, be an exaggeration to say China and Russia are in complete agreement on the war. A review of recent statements and analyses from Beijing and Moscow makes clear that China recognizes Ukraine as a sovereign state, and doesn’t subscribe to Russian narratives about the country being a Nazified Western puppet. It also maintains direct contact with Kyiv, has spoken out against Russian nuclear threats, and hasn’t publicly supported the invasion either. Instead, it has vaguely stated that “the sovereignty of all countries” must be respected, subtly suggesting the invasion might not be justifiable.

But this is about as far as the divergences go, as the two countries tend to agree on key issues.

For example, China has repeatedly expressed support for the “legitimate security concerns” Russia has about NATO’s eastward expansion. In Beijing’s view, the culprit of the conflict is the U.S., which it says has sought to provoke a confrontation in the region.

Over the years, China’s historical skepticism of NATO, which dates back to at least the 1999 U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia, has developed into outright aversion. And Chinese officials view NATO’s June 2022 strategic concept — the first to list China as a security challenge — as confirmation of their suspicions that the organization is set to expand its geographical scope to try and contain the country.

Meanwhile, Beijing has also gravitated toward the notion of “indivisible security,” which posits that nations shouldn’t enhance their security at the expense of others — a doctrine promoted by Moscow for decades, and a criticism aimed at NATO’s activities. Prior to the invasion, China had endorsed the concept in joint statements with Russia. But since then, it’s been included in the Global Security Initiative — a cornerstone of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision for international relations — which suggests it will enjoy a more prominent role in Chinese foreign policy.

The pair also share a disdain for Western sanctions — including those imposed on Russia. Chinese officials vehemently oppose American “illegal unilateral sanctions” and say they won’t comply with them. And Xi hasn’t just passively resisted efforts to isolate Russia, providing the country with an economic lifeline, he’s also shown he’s willing to bear both reputational and economic costs to support his neighbor.

Since 2022, China’s leaders have dealt with a serious economic downturn, the sudden and unexplained ousting of two cabinet ministers and growing Western resistance to its global ambitions. The war has only amplified these challenges, with China’s relations with Europe tarnished by Beijing’s support for Moscow. And while China’s been wary of openly violating Western sanctions, multiple Chinese companies have recently been subject to restrictions for trading with Russian counterparts.

But this seems to be a sacrifice Xi is willing to make. In fact, as the West has increased its demands on China, it’s bond with Russia appears to have only strengthened. Trade and defense exchanges have grown significantly, while the Russian people seem to have become more positively disposed toward China too.

The war has only amplified these challenges, with China’s relations with Europe tarnished by Beijing’s support for Moscow.

The longer China maintains its pro-Russian stance, the harder all this will be to reverse. Chinese firms have already adapted their operations to cater to expanding trade relations with Russia. Over time, this structural change will become harder and more expensive to undo. Moreover, Xi’s support of Putin has been personal and highly publicized. And as China’s pro-Russian policies don’t enjoy universal support among Chinese intellectuals, a policy reversal could be seen as a concession to his critics.

After his meeting with Xi in April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the two leaders had agreed to “coordinate intensively” on holding peace conferences regarding Ukraine. And he made it clear he thinks “China’s word carries weight in Russia.”

It’s true a mediator doesn’t have to be perfectly impartial to be successful. With decisive leverage over one or both conflicting parties, it can cajole them into making compromises that might otherwise be impossible. For such efforts to be successful, however, said mediator must be willing to lean on the dependent parties in a way that can significantly strain its relations with them. So far, Xi has shown no signs of willingness to do so — and the chances of that seem to be decreasing.

European leaders are right to maintain a dialogue with China and to continue demanding Xi uses his leverage. But until China does so, letting Beijing take on a major role in the peace process risks legitimizing the invasion.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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“The King’s Two Bodies”

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"The unwise intention of carrying out a —-fiscal coup—- in the banking and energy sectors…

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“IMF warns that extraordinary taxes on banking and energy should be limited and temporary… The institution points out that they may discourage investment if they remain in their current form… The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns Spain that extraordinary taxes on banks, energy companies and large fortunes should be "limited and temporary". These have raised significant revenue, some 3.5 billion euros in the 2023 fiscal year, and have helped finance measures to combat the energy and price crises, the IMF admits. However, the Washington-based institution considers that these taxes, if maintained in their current format, could be "particularly distortionary and create uncertainty", which in turn "could discourage investment that is already weak".

EL PAÍS by Antonio Maqueda, Madrid - June 17, 2024 - English edition by German & Co.

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Indeed, "Long Live the King"...

"The King's Two Bodies," written by Ernst Kantorowicz in 1957, delves into the historical concept of the monarch's dual role—the natural body and the body politic—and traces its origins to the Middle Ages, a pivotal period in the development of political thought.

The king’s natural body, with its physical attributes, weaknesses, wishes, sufferings, and mortality, is a human reality; however, the king’s spiritual body, which transcends the earthly realm, symbolizes his divine right to rule for the benefit of all subjects in the kingdom.  The theory sounds lovely, but we are far away from it… However, history indicates that taxation was the main concern.

The “King’s two bodies theory,” with its central concept of leadership’s dual nature, holds historical and contemporary relevance.  It provides a unique lens through which one can understand the complexities of power in today’s political landscape, highlighting leadership’s inherent duality.

Current political leadership, which is based on all kinds of philosophies, aims to unite rather than disunite its people.  Why?  It does not exercise its leadership role through dogma.  It utilizes the thermometer of the social situation at the moment to its advantage, striving to maintain its grip on power.  This petty action has resulted in most societies worldwide being broken, fractured, and confused. 

People in leadership positions have completely failed to uphold their solemn responsibility to work for society’s welfare.  However, even more dangerous for today’s weak democracies is where autocratic power has, consciously or unconsciously, been eroding the legal framework; unfortunately, this condition is increasingly palpable, causing a permanent crisis where the opponent is always to blame.

The banking and energy sectors are two of the most crucial pillars of the modern economy. They play a pivotal role in the generation of employment opportunities and the stimulation of economic expansion. These industries are of critical importance in ensuring the smooth functioning of various aspects of the economy, contributing significantly to overall stability and development.

The banking sector, a pivotal component of the economy, is tasked with facilitating financial transactions, providing loans and credit, managing savings and investments, and offering a range of financial services to individuals, businesses, and governments. The issue is not merely financial; it is also about livelihoods. Banks play a pivotal role in the allocation of capital, the promotion of economic growth, and the facilitation of economic activities by providing a stable and efficient financial system.

The energy sector is of great importance for the functioning of the economy and the operation of various industries. It encompasses the production, distribution, and consumption of energy resources, including oil, gas, electricity, and renewable energy sources. The energy sector ensures the availability of reliable and affordable energy supplies, which are critical for industrial production, transportation, heating, and cooling. Furthermore, it contributes to the creation of employment opportunities, technological innovation, and sustainable development.

In summary, both sectors are of great importance for driving economic growth, creating employment opportunities, and ensuring the smooth functioning of the economy.

On November 13, 2022, I posted the widely circulated article "The Drought (1964)." This essay delves into the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Machiavellian strategies employed in the natural gas market's supply side. Additionally, the article sheds light on the political inclination to interfere in the energy.

“Not even in the mind of that genius of science fiction storytelling, James Graham Ballard (JG Ballard, Shanghai, British International Treaty 1930-London, UK 2009) in his short story The Drought (1964), did he fail to visualise what would affect in the future the colony of individuals inhabiting a small, remote, and sick planet, called: Earth.

Not only the human sensory system has been affected by these new living conditions, but also industry in all its processes, a consequence of the forced confinement of human beings, which prevented them from going to their workplaces normally, is suffering from the non-existence of raw materials and components to keep the production chain in operation in order to supply the basic needs that man requires for his subsistence.

The lack of supply of essential goods... together with the excessive costs of international sea freight transport, triggers the poison known as inflation.  Global Cumulative Inflation from January 2020 to December 2021 went from 1.9% to no less than 3.5%, practically doubling in one calendar year, and by the end of the period the prediction is close to 7%, according to World Bank indicators. In other words, in a short period of time, three years, accumulative inflation has tripled. There is no national economy or family wallet that can deal with this -financial storm-.

In addition to this undesirable economic context, to begin with caused by the SARC-COv-2 virus, this financial setback has been compounded since February this year by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has had a negative impact on the fossil fuel market, specifically on the stable and safe purchase price of natural gas from the Tsarist domain. The reason for this is Russia's sharp military strategy in the economic order in this conflict, using the systematic cuts of natural gas to its customers on the continent as a new element of warfare, known under the concept: Natural gas is the new "Russian winter" as an element of warfare?

Obviously, this clever (Machiavellian) strategy on the part of the imperial government of Russia has deepened the economic crisis to levels unprecedented in contemporary history, accelerating the inflationary process in such a way that it has the finances of almost all nations in check, (weakened by extraordinary expenditures (issuing public debt) through subsidies and investments in the health sector aimed at coping with the pandemic times) that drift to the fragile economy of hundreds of millions of families around the world, who are unable to cope with their basic financial commitments, payment of electricity bills, settlements on mortgage commitments, etc......

There is no doubt about the concern of the political authorities regarding the current economic crisis, that it is urgent and necessary to resort to emergency measures to deal with this unsustainable economic situation, however, these political actions in financial matters must be based on objective rationality, on the true origin of the crisis, the current inflationary process is the result of the result of the pandemic and the recent armed conflict. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a direct impact on the natural gas market, causing a disruption in prices due to a strategically planned restriction in supply.

In view of this, the electricity industry has no direct responsibility for the background of the current economic crisis (neither does the political authority), on the contrary, it is one of the most affected parties in the context because its production costs have increased exponentially. A financial intervention in the electricity industry by means of a cap-price is perhaps not the smartest economic measure, because they (the electricity industry) do not have any tools to influence the price of natural gas. This is a governmental issue, where politicians are responsible for finding mechanisms to solve the situation. In this sense, some European government officials have put forward valid proposals aimed at contributing to the relief of electricity supply to both the population and industry, without risking, firstly, social peace and, secondly, the financial health of the energy sector, which could lead to a domino effect on other sectors of the economy, on the basis of state guarantees, which could be one of the logical alternatives at this point in time…

"The Drought (1964)" / https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/blog-post-title-four-9r7yf-et66s-bcdgl-y5yy5

Amidst a global fiscal 'drought,' perhaps celestial deities will steer the sovereign's course. We hope the wise monarch, with "Musk"  helps, will send his followers to Mars aboard the Starship in pursuit of the 'argent' missing from his royal treasury, instead of focusing on the banking and energy sectors.

"Long Live the King"…

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In this edition, you can read about Biden's Tough-on-China Stance Threatening the Green America Push. The President is attempting to balance the growth of clean-energy industries with the reduction of Chinese imports like batteries and solar-panel components. WSJ, Today by Phred Dvorak reports.

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“Being a blogger is challenging, yet it's a rewarding profession where you're driven to do everything to ensure satisfied followers. Now, on "X", giving a "like" or "retweet" to a post remains confidential. This simple act is free and provides us with immense support. Thank you in advance…

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1803084785436279012

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

---

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

Workart by Germán & Co

---

Biden’s Tough-on-China Stance Threatens Green America Push

President tries to balance building clean-energy industries and curbing Chinese imports such as batteries and solar-panel parts

The Wall Street Journal article by Phred Dvorak, dated June 18, 2024.

The Biden administration is hoisting barriers to Chinese clean-energy imports to protect domestic industries as the presidential election nears. But the trade restrictions also threaten another of Biden’s priorities: building out renewable-energy generation.

This month, the administration allowed a set of duties aimed at China-based manufacturers of solar panels to take effect—after having put the measures on hold two years ago. The International Trade Commission, a federal agency that analyzes trade issues, also gave its initial go-ahead to an antidumping petition that some U.S. solar manufacturers have backed. In the next few weeks, the administration is expected to close a tariff loophole that let companies bring in many solar panels duty-free.

Those moves, along with others that raise tariffs on green products such as batteries and electric vehicles, represent some of the strongest attempts yet to protect nascent industries from a glut of green Chinese products and wean the U.S. off clean-energy supply chains that Beijing dominates.

But the U.S. still relies on imported solar components, and some industry executives say the moves—particularly the antidumping petition—are causing developers to pause panel acquisitions, push back work time lines and prepare for higher costs. That in turn threatens the fast rollout of renewable energy needed for the U.S. to hit ambitious clean-energy and climate goals, they say. 

The Biden administration is “trying to strike a balance there between [its clean-energy goals and support of domestic manufacturing], and they’re at odds with each other in a lot of ways,” said Andrew Gier, an energy-practice director at Capstone, a policy consulting firm based in Washington, D.C.

The administration’s support of domestic manufacturing has helped its green agenda not hurt it, said Ali Zaidi, President Biden’s national climate adviser. That is because the government is ensuring that supplies of batteries and renewable components are plentiful and don’t depend on one country such as China, he said.

“There has not been a trade-off,” Zaidi said. Instead, he added, the government has spurred investments that “build out not just deployment of solar but manufacturing of solar here in the United States.”

The debate around the clean-energy trade measures underscores the fine line the Biden administration must walk between promoting its green agenda and sheltering U.S. manufacturing. Two years after incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act set off a race to build clean-energy supply chains in the U.S., companies have announced $114 billion in investments in products such as batteries, solar panels and electric vehicles, according to environmental business group E2.

But China still hosts 80% of solar-manufacturing capacity and 75% of battery production, the International Energy Agency estimates, meaning the U.S. will depend on China’s manufacturers for clean-energy supplies for the foreseeable future.

“Given the relentless efforts of the Chinese government and Chinese-headquartered companies to dominate solar manufacturing, we have to be equally relentless to ensure that trade enforcement works,” said Timothy Brightbill, a partner at Wiley Rein and chief counsel on the antidumping petition.

In solar, that reliance has been heightened by a halving of panel prices during the past year as Chinese manufacturers and their operations in Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia pumped out supply, Brightbill said. Imports soared and inventory piled up in the U.S., he added. 

Solar-panel maker Qcells, a unit of South Korean conglomerate Hanwha, is spending billions of dollars to expand in Georgia. Yet Hal Connolly, vice president of public policy and government relations at Qcells, said last month that customers are opting to buy imported panels that are priced below what it would cost to make them in the U.S. The company and its peers are “losing millions of dollars per month,” he said at an International Trade Commission hearing on the antidumping petition.

Qcells is one of the companies backing the petition, which claims that manufacturers in the four Southeast Asian countries are benefiting from unfair subsidies and dumping solar panels and cells, a critical part.

Not everyone agrees. Lured by government incentives, Canadian Solar completed a $270 million panel-making factory in Texas last year. The company, which is based near Toronto and makes most of its products in China, is also setting up an $800 million plant in Indiana to produce solar cells.

The Indiana plant is expected to be ready in 18 months. Until then, Canadian Solar plans to import panel components from its factory in Thailand, which could be affected by new tariffs. “Carrots work, sticks don’t” when trying to encourage the growth of renewable-energy industries, said Thomas Koerner, the company’s head of global sales.

The U.S. isn’t making solar cells yet, and won’t be making enough to satisfy domestic demand for the next decade at least, according to green-energy lobby American Clean Power.

Jim Murphy, president of Chicago-based energy company Invenergy, said the restrictions could slow renewable-energy projects. The petition is leading Invenergy, which has billions of dollars of renewable-energy generation projects in its pipeline, to review all its panel-import and project-sales contracts to see what the effects will be, Murphy said. 

The uncertainty from the antidumping petition and other trade actions “just slows down projects and…puts developers in a tough position with their customers,” he said. “And it does not help with achieving the deployment objectives that any of the individual companies or the industry writ large—and I think the Biden administration—have here.”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

Corporate Tax Rate Spurs Political Fight With More Than $1 Trillion at Stake

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“Biden wants to raise current 21% rate to 28% while Republicans consider further cuts…

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Richard Rubin for The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2024.

WASHINGTON—The 21% U.S. corporate tax rate is the biggest single variable in the sprawling 2025 tax debate, and the two parties are trying to turn that dial in opposite directions with major consequences for companies’ profits and federal revenue. 

The rate could climb as high as 28% if Democrats sweep November’s elections and move as low as 15% if Republicans gain full power.

President Biden’s plan for a 28% rate would reverse half of Republicans’ 2017 rate cut, pushing the U.S. corporate rate back near the highest among major economies. A 15% rate—some Republicans are heading that way, but the party hasn’t settled on a plan—would match the lowest level since 1935, boosting profits and rewarding shareholders. Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told corporate executives last week that he wanted a 20% rate.

Each percentage point is worth more than $130 billion over a decade in tax revenue, creating a $1 trillion-plus gap between the poles of the parties’ positions and giving the largest U.S. companies an outsize interest in the election’s outcome.

“Why would we want to put U.S. companies in an uncompetitive situation? And if we did that, why would we expect that we would attract investment to the U.S.?” said Jon Moeller, chief executive at consumer-goods maker Procter & Gamble. Moeller leads tax-policy advocacy for the Business Roundtable, the collection of large-company executives who met with Trump last week. 

The group is planning an eight-figure spending campaign to support maintaining the 21% rate and extending international tax-law changes that lapse after next year. 

The fight over the corporate rate makes up part of the wider tax-policy questions that lawmakers will wrestle with next year as large pieces of the 2017 tax law are scheduled to expire. Also on the table: tax rates for individuals, the child tax credit, the state and local tax deduction, tax rates for closely held businesses and the estate-tax exemption. 

Corporations won tax cuts during Trump’s first term, and they would benefit if he wins again. In 2017, many companies pushed for lowering the corporate tax rate to 25% from 35%, aiming for the middle of the pack among peer countries. Trump and congressional Republicans got the rate down to 21%. 

Unlike other pieces of that same law, the corporate rate cut doesn’t expire. Republicans were trying to give companies a long-term signal that they could put profits and investment in the U.S. instead of in other countries and get similar after-tax returns. 

But tax policy is only as permanent as the political majority that creates it. Democrats tried to raise corporate tax rates after taking power. That plan fell short after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I., Ariz.) objected, and the 21% rate remained, though Democrats created a separate 15% corporate minimum tax. 

Easy political choice for Democrats

Within the Democratic Party, raising the corporate tax is among the easiest political choices, because it generates so much money for other priorities. It lets Democrats direct attention to companies that enjoyed lower taxes and then raised prices; they have pointed to studies showing that the 2017 law yielded modest boosts in investment and delivered wage gains mostly to higher-income workers.

Democrats also point to U.S. corporate tax revenue as a share of the economy as being low internationally; that is misleading because, unlike elsewhere, the U.S. taxes a significant share of U.S. business income on owners’ individual returns, not through the corporate tax. 

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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“The corporate tax share is already low and corporate profits are at record highs,” said Lael Brainard, the White House national economic adviser. “Any way you look at it, we are not raising enough from the corporate side.” 

The corporate tax is projected to generate about 8% of U.S. revenue over the next decade, far less than individual income or payroll taxes, according to the Congressional Budget Office. 

The corporate tax is one of the most progressive ways of raising revenue, with much of the burden falling on higher-income households, but the reality of who pays it is more nuanced than just saying “companies” or “rich people.” Economists and government agencies generally agree that shareholders ultimately bear much of the cost, with workers and consumers paying some, too. Shareholders, generally, are wealthier than the population as a whole. 

White House National Economic Adviser Lael Brainard notes that corporate profits are at record highs. PHOTO: JIM LO SCALZO/PRESS POOL

The corporate tax is one of the few ways the U.S. can, indirectly, tax foreign investors in U.S. securities and nonprofits with large tax-free endowments. 

But the shareholder base also includes pension funds, 401(k) accounts and some middle-income households. Biden and Democrats play down effects on those groups. They also don’t count corporate tax increases as violating the president’s pledge to protect households making under $400,000 from tax hikes. 

Republicans see 21% rate as successful…

Republicans and executives see the 21% corporate tax rate and accompanying changes to international tax rules as successful. They note that no U.S. companies have inverted—taken a foreign address for tax savings—since 2017 and they warn that a higher rate would harm the economy. That is a change from the prior few years, when companies such as Johnson Controls and Medtronic inverted. 

Higher rates now would be more onerous than a decade ago, Moeller said. That is because the 2017 law broadened the tax base, removing tax breaks such as one for domestic manufacturing, so a 28% tax now would be 28% on more income. 

Lawmakers are just beginning to weigh trade-offs within the corporate tax system and the tax code more broadly. 

Democrats aren’t necessarily united behind Biden’s 28% rate. Rep. Richard Neal (D., Mass.), likely the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee if Democrats win a House majority, said he still likes the bill his panel approved in 2021. That had a 26.5% rate, along with international-tax changes that companies sought and higher minimum taxes they opposed. Rates aren’t all that matter to companies, Neal said. 

“The rate is the advertised number,” he said. “The deductions and exclusions frequently become more important to them.”

Senate Finance Committee Democrats will meet soon to discuss the 2025 tax debate, and Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.) said he is still in wait-and-see mode on Biden’s call for a 28% rate. 

However, he said: “It’s interesting when I hear from some corporate CEOs who argue for a competitive tax rate but then also complain about our $34 trillion debt.”

Republicans don’t have a fixed plan, either. 

“I’m not going to get pinned in a numbers game,” said Rep. Jason Smith (R., Mo.), chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. Smith has said some Republicans might want to raise the rate. 

“I would go lower,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R., S.C.). “Taxes—I don’t care what the liberals say—taxes let people spend their own money, incentivizes our economy.”

Even those who might want to lower the 21% rate recognize that it doesn’t expire. And to the extent Republicans feel constrained by budget deficits, they might want to devote more attention to the tax pieces that do expire and carry a $4 trillion price tag for full extension.

“I don’t support raising taxes. I’m not a fan of raising rates,” said Rep. Ben Cline (R., Va.). “I wouldn’t support raising rates, but I would be premature to say that the corporate rate and what it is shouldn’t be part of the conversation.”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

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IMF warns that extraordinary taxes on banking and energy should be limited and temporary…

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The institution points out that they may discourage investment if they remain in their current form…

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EL PAÍS by Antonio Maqueda, Madrid - June 17, 2024 - English Edition by German & Co.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns Spain that extraordinary taxes on banks, energy companies and large fortunes should be "limited and temporary". These have raised significant revenue, some 3.5 billion euros in the 2023 fiscal year, and have helped finance measures to combat the energy and price crises, the IMF admits. However, the Washington-based institution considers that these taxes, if maintained in their current format, could be "particularly distortionary and create uncertainty", which in turn "could discourage investment that is already weak".

The Fund explains that these taxes were introduced in response to the inflationary crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine: "The question of who should bear the cost of the measures came to the fore," it notes. In this context, energy companies have benefited from soaring prices. And banks have raised their margins with the rate hikes that were approved to tame inflation: they have passed on the rates to the loans they grant, but they have not passed them on with the same intensity to their depositors. This is the conclusion of a study by the Bank of Spain that quotes the IMF. All this has justified the government's reaction. However, such exceptionality cannot last forever: "Extraordinary levies do not constitute a growth-friendly fiscal consolidation strategy", say the Fund's economists in their annual report on the Spanish economy, the so-called Article IV. They add that they are not a sound alternative to measures that raise revenues in a structural way. In the long term, revenue collection should be complemented by initiatives to contain the increase in spending, especially on pensions, they conclude.

If such levies are to be made permanent, the IMF explains, the windfall gains should be clearly defined. It would be advisable to align the tax bases with that definition to minimise distortionary effects, it says. They could also be redesigned to pursue other objectives: according to the Fund, the bank tax could be reoriented in such a way that the accumulated countercyclical capital buffers can be deducted. In fact, the Bank of Spain has just demanded an increase in these buffers because it believes that now is the time to build up their reserves.

In other words, the tax could be used to make banks better capitalised. Banks in Spain have low levels of capital in European comparison. Although they would hold up well in an adverse scenario, they would do so at the cost of a substantial contraction in credit, according to the stress analysis carried out by the FMI. "A retention of banks' profits today could pay off if risks materialise," he says. So using the tax to shore up capital would be a way to strengthen the financial system and prepare it for future crises. This position of the IMF is the same as that of the Bank of Spain.

The government has announced its intention to make these figures permanent. It will use them to justify to Brussels that it is approving the fiscal reform it has committed to in exchange for European funds. When asked if she would allow capital gains tax relief, María Jesús Montero replied that the tax is designed to raise revenue and not to improve the solvency of banks. The Treasury did allow renewable investments to be deducted in the tax on energy companies after negotiating with the PNV.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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The tax on banks is 4.8% of the net interest and commission income of institutions operating in Spain with revenues of more than 800 million euros. The IMF recalls that the ECB has already criticised it. On the basis of 2022, 1.2 billion was collected. According to the Fund's calculations, this represents 10% of the profit linked to its activity in Spain in 2023: "A fairly small fraction but not trivial". "Although it does not seem to have had a significant negative effect on the financial sector, its magnitude is sufficient to influence future decisions of banks if it is prolonged," the report states.

In the agency's view, the design of the tax has "important limitations". It taxes net interest income and not profit. As a result, it does not take into account the possibility that banks may have high margins but low profits, and vice versa. "Risky lending could be particularly disadvantaged, as its higher returns would be taxed while its higher provisions would not be deductible," notes Kristalina Georgieva's institution. Still, it acknowledges that identifying windfall profits is not easy: Spanish banks' return on equity did not experience significant increases compared to their European peers in 2022 and 2023. However, profitability in the domestic market increased to its highest level since the financial crisis, due, according to the Bank of Spain, to the fact that they returned less on deposits than in the euro area and other periods with similar economic conditions. The 800 million limit leaves out institutions regardless of their profitability, it adds.

The IMF considers that only cyclical factors should be included in the tax base, which would lower the revenue raising capacity. In any case, even without the redesign, the Fund expects its revenues to decline in the coming years as margins narrow because rates are lowered and because they are passed on to depositors.

The energy levy…

The extraordinary tax on energy companies is 1.2% of their turnover. In 2023, 1.6 billion was collected for the 2022 activity. The Fund recalls that several of these companies threatened to take their investments to other countries if the levy was extended. It has been extended until 2025. But it was announced, following an agreement with the PNV, that investments in renewable energy projects will be deducted. However, as there is no budget, these deductions are not in force.

Like the banking tax, the energy tax does not necessarily capture companies' profits and lacks a clear definition of excess profit, says the Fund. As it does not differentiate between types of energy, it cannot be considered an environmental tax. However, it concedes that the green investment deduction can function as an incentive. Like the bank levy, the energy levy should be time-limited under the current design, it stresses.

If made permanent, the tax should stick to a clear definition of excess profit rather than on the operating balance sheet, he stresses. And this definition should distinguish between those high profits that are due to externally driven price fluctuations and those that are inherent to domestic market competition. The former are the ones that should be taxed, it argues.

Moreover, the IMF says that Spain already stands out for its wide variety of energy taxes.

such as VAT, production tax and special electricity tax, among others. The interaction between all taxes should be taken into account, he argues. If taxation is restricted strictly to those profits that are not due to competition, revenue will fall. In any case, it will go down as energy prices have normalised.

Tax on large fortunes…

On the other hand, the IMF analyses the solidarity tax on large fortunes announced in December 2022. It explains that wealth taxes can be an instrument to raise revenue and to achieve redistribution. But he points out that if the differences in the tax are very large between regions, it can also have distortionary effects: it could lead to residency decisions dictated by taxation. And if wealth tax is left at the state level, it clashes with the autonomy of the communities. Cooperation to establish a minimum wealth tax is a more viable way forward, it concludes.

The report highlights that of the 623 million raised in 2023, 555 million came from the Community of Madrid, which historically has not taxed wealth. And it recalls that this autonomous region has announced a change in the tax to redirect revenues to the regional government and, in return, has communicated a series of tax benefits to compensate high net worth individuals, such as tax incentives to create companies, invest or hire in the region. It is initiatives would disable net revenue collection, he warns.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Envision a natural substance so potent that it ignites intense discussions and yet remains indispensable in contemporary society…

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Natural gas must be transported at a cryogenic temperature of -160º Celsius to transform dramatically from gas to liquid. The impact of inflation, particularly the escalating costs of natural gas for electricity generation due to war, significantly affects our daily lives…

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“On June 13, European natural gas futures hit €36 per megawatt-hour, a near six-month peak, as reported by TradingView. This surge is attributed to apprehensions about LNG facility shutdowns and Europe's push to replenish winter gas reserves. The halt of operations at Australia's Wheatstone gas facility has disrupted the global LNG supply chain. Europe's gas supply faces challenges amidst competition with Asia, where demand has spiked due to a heatwave. Although EU gas storage levels stand at 72.33%, the pace of storage injections has decelerated, sparking concerns over future availability, particularly with the potential shortfall of Russian gas. Germany's Uniper SE has secured €13 billion in compensation from Gazprom for undelivered gas, casting doubts on the dependability of Russian gas supplies.

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The current prices in the Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price are notably lower than historical peaks. For example, the price hit US$18.92 in December 2000 US$18.54, in February 2003, reached a peak of US$23.45 in September 2005, climbed to US$18.93 in June 2008, and as of August 2022, it is US$9.47 per MBTU. Given these historical fluctuations, the market remains susceptible to potential risks, especially in the complex and turbulent global context we find ourselves in.

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Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price…

Source: : U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Workart by Germán & Co… if you need assistance, please don't hesitate to contact us.

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Natural gas has been used in the global energy industry for centuries…

The use of natural gas dates back to ancient times, with its commercial applications expanding significantly in recent centuries. For example, around 1000 BC, natural gas was seen emanating from the ground in flames at the Oracle of Delphi in ancient Greece. By 500 BC, the Chinese were using bamboo "pipelines" to transport gas for the purpose of desalinating seawater through boiling.

Britain's first commercial utilization of natural gas in 1785 marked a pivotal point for global development. However, it was in 1816, in Baltimore, Maryland, that the U.S. distinguished itself. Baltimore became the first U.S. city to use manufactured natural gas for street lighting, marking an important milestone in the early growth of the U.S. natural gas industry.

The indigenous peoples of the United States initially discovered natural gas when they saw the burning of gases near Lake Erie, a phenomenon noted by French explorers as early as 1626. The first successful natural gas well in the U.S. was drilled in Fredonia, New York, in 1821, leading to the creation of the first American natural gas distribution company, the Fredonia Gas Light Company.

In 1836, the City of Philadelphia founded the first municipally owned natural gas distribution company. Today, the United States boasts over 900 public gas systems, with the Philadelphia Gas Works being the largest and longest-standing.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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AES Andres Natural Gas Hub, Dominican Republic.

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Today, natural gas occupies a crucial position in the global energy supply…

In the United States, natural gas supplies over half of the energy consumed by residential and commercial customers, and about 41 percent of the energy used by the industry. It is regarded as one of the cleanest, safest, and most beneficial sources of energy.

Ninety-nine percent of the natural gas in the United States is sourced from North America. As the cleanest-burning fossil fuel, natural gas increasingly aids in achieving national environmental and energy objectives, contributing to a more competitive economy. The underground natural gas delivery system, which extends over two million miles, boasts an exemplary safety record.

Since 2004, liquefied natural gas (LNG) has begun to assume a more prominent role in the overall gas supply landscape. Currently, approximately 1% of the natural gas consumed in the country is imported as LNG, and it is projected that the nation's imports of LNG could increase to around 7 or 8% by the end of the decade, which would require the construction of additional LNG facilities.

After the pandemic-induced decline in 2020, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in early 2022 abruptly interrupted the recovery of global energy consumption. This unexpected event has plunged global energy markets into uncertainty, exacerbating inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth.

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

Renewable energy is growing rapidly in the US. The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy business boosts our ability to assist clients in their energy transition. Our combined entity manages 2.5 GW of assets, with 2.6 GW backlog and 12 GW in projects. Join our team dedicated to solving complex energy challenges and transitioning to a carbon-free grid.

In our quest for cleaner energy, we offer various innovative solutions through our sPower partnership, aiding customers in transitioning to 100% renewable energy consumption. The projects like Pleinmont Solar I and II in Virginia underline our commitment to sustainability and impact on the environment. Our collaboration with Microsoft on a 300 MW solar energy initiative further supports clients in reaching their green objectives.

AES partnered with KIUC for a solar + storage solution, setting a new standard in renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's 2045 goal. Ready to help Microsoft and more with eco-friendly energy solutions, as mentioned by Andrés Gluski, AES's President and CEO.

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Workart by Germán & Co...

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Is natural gas the bridge that fuels the world’s needs?

Natural gas is seen as a cleaner fuel than coal and oil, but methane emissions from its extraction and transport may lessen its environmental benefits compared to renewable energy sources like solar and wind…

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations entity, has indicated that global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by over 40% by 2030 to align with the Paris Agreement's ambitious targets. The role of natural gas in this reduction and the transition to renewable energy is a subject of debate.

Natural gas is often considered a cleaner fuel compared to coal or oil, as it generates fewer conventional air pollutants like sulfur dioxide and particulates. Its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy are also about half that of the best coal technology, which ostensibly makes it a preferable choice from a climate standpoint.

However, the discovery of high methane levels leaking from natural gas facilities worldwide casts doubt on its status as a cleaner alternative. Regarding the expectation for fossil fuel companies to self-regulate methane leaks, it is generally considered unrealistic. Therefore, implementing regulations to cap emissions levels and ensuring vigorous enforcement are essential. Nonetheless, many companies are proactive and are setting methane reduction targets for 2025, as well as measuring their emissions, even in the absence of regulatory mandates.

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All rights belong to Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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Natural gas will continue to be essential for electricity production for decades…

After the pandemic-induced decline in 2020, the recovery in global energy consumption was abruptly interrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. This unexpected event has plunged global energy markets into uncertainty, exacerbating inflation and slowing economic growth.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia made the E.U. realize the risks of relying on the Kremlin for natural gas.

Reducing dependence on Russian gas, which accounted for 40% of E.U. demand last year, is challenging. President Vladimir Putin is not making it any easier. Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom, the state-backed export monopoly, started reducing natural gas sales to European customers, depleting storage and limiting pipeline flows. Ultimately, it’s the result of hasty, ill-conceived energy projects driven by various very personal needs of certain European politicians. It culminates in the frustration of Andromeda.

Comprehending the risks associated with sea canals can avert errors in energy management…

The obstruction in the Suez Canal in 2021 had a limited impact on the global gas market but caused significant volatility in the LNG shipping market in the year’s first half. The disruption led to a surge in LNG spot charter rates for steam turbine carriers in January 2021 due to heightened LNG demand during a colder-than-usual winter season in many gas-consuming regions. A shortage of available LNG carriers exacerbated this surge in the spot market and congestion at the Panama Canal.

Despite the initial rate increase, charter rates plummeted to an annual low in early March 2021 following a decrease in LNG demand. The grounding of the containership Ever Given in the Suez Canal on March 23, 2021, further disrupted the shipping industry, including the LNG segment, by halting vessel traffic in the waterway and causing uncertainty in global markets.

The Suez Canal is critical in global LNG transportation, connecting Atlantic basin markets with Middle Eastern and Asia Pacific markets. In 2020, many laden LNG carriers transited the Suez Canal, mainly transporting LNG from Qatar to Europe and Russian and US LNG cargoes to the Asia Pacific.

The blockage in the Suez Canal resulted in numerous vessels, including LNG carriers, waiting to transit the canal. Some LNG carriers opted for alternative routes, such as circumnavigating Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, leading to increased shipping costs and longer delivery times. The blockage lasted a week, with vessel traffic resuming on March 29, 2021, preventing a large-scale disruption to the LNG shipping market.

While the transportation of crude and oil products experienced more significant disruptions and freight rate increases, the impact on the global gas market was limited. The delays in LNG deliveries did not significantly affect LNG spot charter rates, which only saw a modest increase over the blockage period. The availability of LNG carriers on the spot market was not significantly impacted by the blockage, as there was sufficient shipping capacity in early 2021.

The disruption primarily affected LNG loading and discharging schedules at various ports, but LNG shippers were able to catch up on these delays later. However, had the blockage been more prolonged or occurred during the winter season, its impact on gas markets could have been more substantial, leading to tightening LNG supply, increased spot charter rates, and rising spot LNG prices?

The Suez Canal disruption underscored the dependence of global trade, including the LNG segment, on this vital trade route, highlighting the inconvenience and increased costs associated with alternative routes. While it is unlikely that the LNG industry will shift to alternative trade routes following this incident, stakeholders should consider and manage the relevant risks associated with disruptions at the Suez Canal. This may involve fair cost-sharing agreements in supply and charter contracts, including alternative trade routes in charter agreements and prioritization of gas storage development by LNG-importing countries to mitigate supply disruptions in case of similar accidents.

At this point, two particularly relevant questions may seem absurd, yet they emerge:

Firstly, were the NordStream pipeline operational, the current natural gas situation in Europe might be markedly different. There could be greater stability and lower-priced supplies with a network of NG terminals across the continent. Secondly, the responsibility for the destruction of the NordStream pipeline, built at an astronomical cost of US$11 billion, remains officially unaddressed by any government.

“Adopting the principle of the legal rule of administrative silence, which is considered positive, clarifies the responsibility for the explosion of the empty pipe…

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Last words…

The current crisis provides an opportunity to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources. Although economic instability and short-term policy decisions may create challenges, the high prices of fossil fuels and record-high emissions provide strong incentives to reduce reliance on these energy sources or improve their efficiency. The potential economic benefits of such transitions, including job creation and reduced healthcare costs, can outweigh concerns over energy security and lead to a more sustainable future. The current energy crisis is more complex and urgent than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, as it affects all fossil fuels and has widespread effects on electricity pricing. This underscores the need for immediate and comprehensive action to avoid potential widespread economic repercussions.

Many governments have pledged to implement sustainable practices, which has laid the foundation for numerous current energy policies. Some of these commitments have been reinforced by new initiatives to improve long-term energy security and expedite energy transitions, such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the REPowerEU Plan. Since the start of the pandemic, governments globally have spent approximately USD 1.1 trillion on clean energy transitions. Tightening monetary policies worldwide may raise near-term borrowing costs, potentially affecting clean energy projects dependent on financing. Nevertheless, clean technologies remain the most cost-effective option for new power generation in many countries. The development of new energy technologies requires the use of rare earth elements, which has led to a new form of imperialism, particularly in Africa, with China and Russia playing significant roles. However, the reserves of rare earth elements are limited. As of 2024, the countries with the largest reserves and production of rare earth minerals are China, with the largest reserves at 44 million metric tons and the highest global production, followed by Vietnam with 22 million MT; Brazil, with 21 million MT, Russia with 10 million MT, India with 6.9 million MT, Australia with 5.7 million MT, the United States with 1.8 million MT, and Greenland with 1.5 million MT, are the leading producers of rare earth minerals. China is the dominant player in the rare earth mining industry. The energy sector will continue to be a crucial factor in geopolitical conflict.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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“Delving into the depths of Tucker Carlson's conversation with President Nayib Bukele...

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These historical tidbits illuminate the bizarre and whimsical world we navigate…

The latest weekly edition focuses on discussing and analyzing ethical issues pertinent to the field in question. The different points of view expressed in these articles invite reflection on the importance of considering the moral framework in our daily decisions and actions, and we dedicate our time and effort, even on weekends and weekdays, until religious obligations prevent us from working to provide you with an unbiased analysis. 

(https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/nax7ew5prkpht5e)

Your support has been overwhelming and is deeply appreciated. I must acknowledge that being a blogger is not easy.  The impact of our content on platform 'X' last week, with one of our posts reaching nearly 3 million people within a day, receiving around a thousand likes, and being shared nine hundred times (https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1790282837196783887), has been truly motivating. Our score of 200K on Energy Central, placing us among the top ten influencers, and the invitations from LinkedIn experts for collaborative essays are all thanks to you. We are grateful for your role in our success.

The article addresses the difficulties of existing in a world affected by war and inflation, seemingly without an escape. To better understand these issues, we have chosen five essays that may shed light on the current predicament: “The war of religion in the 21st century…Germany and Russia’s volatile relationship in the 20th century…Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America… The Failures of America’s Foreign Policy…Today's big surprise: Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit…”

In a challenging world, the role of humor and everyday life is deemed essential for survival. The human dynamics surrounding the Lewinsky/Clinton and Stormy Daniels/Trump situations are examined from the standpoint of emotional and mundane considerations.  This concise text examines the differing reactions of Presidents Clinton and Trump to their respective situations. President Clinton affably admitted his participation, declaring, "I cherished the time in a romantic way, without physical intimacy," The show emphasized the significance of non-physical contact and then came to a conclusion.  Conversely, President Trump has denied any contact with the attractive poisoned candy, which has had negative consequences for the former president in the trial in New York; however, the final word is still pending.  It is remarkable that former President Trump's campaign and the GOP raised $52.8 million following his conviction. Amazing…

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Source: The Esteemed Office of the President of El Salvador. Edited by Germán & Co.

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...During his time in office, President Bukele has consistently emphasized the importance of seeking divine guidance through prayer to navigate the complexities of governance. His efforts extend beyond domestic issues like dismantling the MS-13 gang, as he actively engages in discussions surrounding the global challenges that democracies are currently facing. With his leadership, El Salvador has remarkably shifted its reputation from being a notorious murder capital to now being regarded as one of the safest destinations in the region. It is clear that President Bukele has garnered significant admiration for his accomplishments.

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Source: Media. Edited by Germán & Co.

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Who is considered "charismatic and successful" by some, while being viewed as "controversial" by others, in the context of the presidency of El Salvador?

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Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez, born on 24 July 1981, is the 46th President of El Salvador and will take office on 1 June 2019. He made history as the first president since 1989 not to be affiliated with the country's main political parties. President Bukele's significant re-election in February 2024, with an overwhelming majority of around 85% of the vote, cemented his popularity among Salvadorans. His roots in San Salvador demonstrate his strong ties to the nation. President Bukele's rise to power has been marked by his charm and ability to connect with the younger generation, mainly through his skilful use of social media, especially 'X', to engage directly with citizens. His innovative approach has been instrumental in El Salvador's impressive transformation from a high-crime area to one of the safest regions, earning him national and international recognition. President Bukele comes from a prominent background in El Salvador, with his father, Armando Bukele Kattán, holding respected positions in the Muslim community and the business sector. While initially studying law at Central American University (UCA) in San Salvador, Bukele shifted his focus to managing the family's various business ventures, including a Yamaha dealership and other companies. In December 2014, President Bukele married Gabriela Rodríguez, with whom he has two daughters, Layla and Aminah. Bukele's political journey began in 2012 when he was elected mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán in La Libertad, representing the “Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN)”. During his tenure as mayor, his focus on social programmes and community development laid the groundwork for his future political ambitions. When he became mayor of San Salvador under the FMLN in 2015, Bukele's innovative projects and use of social media for civic engagement earned him national recognition. After parting ways with the FMLN in 2017, Bukele founded his own political movement, "Nuevas Ideas", and the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA) won a decisive victory in the first round with over 53% of the vote, breaking the long-standing dominance of the two main parties in Salvadoran politics. Bukele's presidency has been marked by progressive social policies and controversial actions. He has focused on reducing crime, improving public safety and promoting economic growth. His initiatives include the "Plan Control Territorial Security Strategy", introducing Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, and leading major infrastructure projects. Despite his achievements, Bukele's leadership has been criticised for his confrontational style, handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts to increase control over other branches of government, raising concerns about the impact on democratic institutions and checks and balances.

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Tucker Carlson conducted an interview with President Nayib Bukele in San Salvador, El Salvador, on June 4, 2024. The source of this information is the Esteemed Office of the President of El Salvador, with editing by Germán & Co.

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Tucker Swanson McNear Carlson, born on May 16, 1969, is an American conservative political commentator and writer known for his role as the host of the nightly political talk show "Tucker Carlson Tonight" on Fox News from 2016 to 2023. Following the termination of his contract with Fox News, he has since hosted "Tucker" on X. Carlson is recognized as a supporter of former U.S. President Donald Trump and has been characterized as a prominent advocate of "Trumpism," as well as being identified as a highly influential figure in right-wing media, with few comparable voices in the same sphere.

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*Hemingway and the “gang” say: “Farewell To The Arms…

It is the cruelest reality imaginable...

Criminal activity has become a worldwide threat recently. The current statistics are alarming, with homicides taking the lives of almost half a million people globally. Surprisingly, this number is higher than the sum of deaths caused by armed conflicts and terrorist attacks during the same period. 

To deal with the problem effectively, it's crucial to comprehend the intricate relationships between Latin American gangs, the widespread availability of firearms in Europe, and the extent of organized crime. Latin American criminal groups have played a crucial role in the increase of crime rates in the region. These groups frequently operate with a twisted notion of loyalty, engaging in violent conflicts over territories to dominate and control lucrative illegal activities. Their influence goes beyond local communities, spreading into diverse aspects of society and perpetuating cycles of violence.

In Europe, the widespread availability of firearms worsens the hazards of criminal activities. As guns are easily accessible, criminals become more confident, leading to an increase in armed robberies, gang violence, and even terror attacks. Recognizing the urgency of addressing this crisis, the United Nations implemented “Sustainable Development Goal 16”, which aims to decrease violence and associated deaths by 2030. Nonetheless, the current crime rate persists. Therefore, achieving the goal on time is likely.

To effectively tackle crime and ensure community safety, a diverse approach is necessary. Such an approach ought to involve investing in social programs that address the root causes of crime, encourage education and skills development, enable economic opportunities, and bolster international cooperation to dismantle transnational criminal networks.

*https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/glptk75s8wsj72l-rc4p8-wxhbw-ac93b-nasl7-7xe3m-ayah7-9z2lz-hlnwh-8z8rx-zly63-fralc-8nk74-g353w-e6n43-7zgxp-7zhef-2ejna-4eal9-bjfsl-hsnjh-lna6k-be4h6-lm55t-32wxb

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Now to “Delving into the depths of Tucker Carlson's conversation with President Nayib Bukele...

Editions by Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 12, 2024.

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TC: Mister president, thank you for having us.

PNB: “Thank you.

TC: Thank you, for the bean here at your camp David, which is beautiful.  So, you were inaugurated two days ago. Despite being a small country, your inauguration made international headlines. Why? Why do you think that is?

PNB: “Well, it was a shock for us, too. I mean, we knew that a lot of people were coming, and, I mean, that will draw some attention. Of course, we had delegations from 110 countries.  "Of course, that would make headlines because if a chancellor comes from a particular country," he brings his media team, which will create some news. "And if a president or a king visit, that will definitely make the news.  "Even if you arrive, it will still make some headlines.

TC: Why were they coming?

PNB:  “Well, I don't know. Different reasons. Of course. I could ask you, why did you come? 

TC:  Right, I came because I think something remarkable is happening here. That's why. But I'm interested in why you think people came.

PNB:  “There were various reasons. For instance, the US government sent a large delegation, and we also received a delegation from Congress.

TC:  Yes.

PNB:  “The delegation initially consisted of Republicans but later became bipartisan, including Democrats from Congress.  At the top, I don't know what happened in the end, but it's like how stars are born.  They say that when debris starts coming together, it forms an asteroid."  But if more debris accumulates, it becomes a planet due to gravitational pull; as more debris gathers, it transforms into a star due to the significant gravitational force.  It's called critical mass.  I don't know.  Sometimes, just because —God wants— it like that or just the stroke of luck or whatever, you get some essential mass for something you're doing, and then it becomes more significant than the sum of all of its parts.  I don't know.  He likely had a significant impact that we didn't anticipate."

“El Salvador seemed in the toughest shape or close to the bottom in the rankings for everything.  Lacking abundant natural resources, etcetera. And since the country was born, is that true? Yes. I mean, the country has been poor since it was born. Yeah. Lacking everything, basically. Lacking everything, with a dense population, a lot of people packed in.

TC:  What do you. How did you change it? I guess I'll cut right to it. If you can fix El Salvador, what are the lessons for the rest of us? What did you do first?

PNB:  “If you don't have peace, you can't do anything, right? When I say "peace," I mean the absence of ongoing conflicts, wars, civil wars, invasions, or crime. Peace is essential. It's essential to have the freedom to move to ensure that your fundamental rights, such as the right to life, movement, and property, are respected. Therefore, your fundamental rights must be upheld and preserved. A society will struggle to achieve peace first.  Once it achieves peace, it can struggle for other things, like infrastructure, culture, wealth, well-being, and quality of life.  But it must start with peace.  —El Salvador was once considered the murder capital of the world—.  "We have turned our country into the safest in the Western Hemisphere.  We are now safer than any other country in the Western Hemisphere, which you know, wasn't the case before.  If I had said that five years ago, people would have called me crazy, right?  Because back then, this was the most dangerous country in the world." 

TC: Your capital is now safer than our capital in Washington.

PNB: “Yes, yes, a lot safer. And the country is safer than the United States as a whole. Yes, the US has a murder rate of around six per 100,000 inhabitants, whereas our murder rate is two. This number makes us safer than any other country in the Western Hemisphere, including Canada, Chile, and Europe. Some countries in the other hemisphere are safer than El Salvador, but not in the Western Hemisphere.

TC: So, you did that in just a couple years?

PNB: “Yes, we did that in basically. In three years.

TC: So what? From the bottom line. What's the formula?

PNB: “Well, we used both the official formula and the real formula.  We planned, so this is the official formula.  It's not that when I say "official," I mean it's a lie.  It's just the official one.  We came up with a plan that consisted of phases. We rolled up the first phase, the next phase, and the next phase until the gangs started to fight back.  We had to do it all at once, quickly.  And it worked. In a few weeks, we were ready.  The country transformed the gangs, listen, but they (the gangs) had not yet been arrested and were on the run.  In phase six, we managed to pacify the country in just weeks.  Amazing, a miracle!

TC: How do you do that? How do you pacify a country?

PNB:  “The phases included building up the police force and the army. We doubled the army to fight crime. The army was used to fight crime. And we equipped them like soldiers. We didn't have access to useful guns, vehicles, drones, or necessities required for an operation of that magnitude. So, we rolled up our sleeves and then went after them.  Okay, so that's the official.  Yeah, that's the official one.

TC: What's the real?

PNB: “It's a miracle. It's a miracle. Yeah.

TC: I love that. What do you mean?

PNB:  "Indeed, it was a miracle. When gangs began to attack us, they killed 87 people in just three days. For a country with a population of 6 million, it was incredibly devastating. To put it into perspective, this would be equivalent to having 5000 deaths in the US in three days, which is sixty times the usual rate of 5000 murders in the US in the same time frame."

TC: Wow.

PNB:  “Yeah. During the meeting at my office, we were at the beginning, not at the end, but at the beginning. From 3:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m., I watched what was happening and tried to figure out what to do. The problem with gangs is that they not only attack their targets when they want to instil fear. They can strike anyone. So they can kill their grandma? Yes. And it's your victim. Yes, because they don't care about their grandma. You care about their grandma. So, it's your victim. If they kill their grandma, they have one death, and the gangs have achieved the terror that they want to create. So they can kill anybody. A man worked in the street as a woman walked by, and a taxi driver passed by. They can kill anybody. If the state pursues them, it has no intention of killing or harming anyone except the gang members. So, you have 70,000 gang members as your objectives, but they have 6 million potential targets. So, it was almost an impossible task.

TC: It's a guerrilla war, really.

PNB:  “Yes, but it was impossible because you had to go after them.  They were deeply connected (intertwined) with the local community; they were everywhere, and they were killing randomly.  So how do you stop that?  So, we tried to figure out what to do, and I said, "Well, it's..." We're looking into an impossible, impossible mission here.  "So, we pray, and we..."

TC: You prayed in the meeting?

PNB: “Yes, yes, of course. Several times. Yeah.

TC: What did you pray for?

PNB:  “To the wisdom to win the war to have. I thought at the time that we would have civilian casualties. So, we said, we prayed that the civilian casualties will be as low as possible, and we didn't have any civilian casualties.

TC And was everyone in the meeting comfortable with that?

PNB: “Yes. Yes. All my security cabinet are believers. They all believe in God. We're a secular country, of course, but we all believe in God.

TC: So, MS 13 is one of the.

PNB: “Major gangs, and they are satanic also.

TC: That was my question. So very little.

PNB: “No, no, no.

TC: But I hope you will explain it, because very little has been written in the west about this.

PNB: “They're satanic is.

TC: “But actually, literally. Can you explain?

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Artwork Titled "Germán & Co"

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PNB:  "Initially, MS-13 did not start as a satanic organization. It was established in Los Angeles, United States, as Salvadorans were barred from participating in the drug trade by Mexican gangs.

They formed a gang known as the "18th Street Gang" to sell drugs on 18th Street in the area. However, internal divisions began to emerge.

They started to divide amongst themselves and engage in infighting. As a result, they created MS-13, which quickly became the dominant gang. The organization began expanding to different parts of the United States. When Bill Clinton decided to deport these individuals, he did not inform our government that he was deporting criminals. Consequently, they were sent here unchecked, and their numbers grew.

At the same time, some laws were passed to protect minors from imprisonment. And, of course, the gangs used that to recruit 15-year-olds, 16-year-olds, and 17-year-olds. In the beginning, there were some youths causing harm by assaulting others, attempting to control their territory, and selling drugs. These actions were negative, but perhaps not critical. Over time, they continued to grow and expand their activities. They started controlling territories a few years later.

They were a huge criminal, enormous international criminal organization that they have bases in Italy, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, the US. Basically, a lot of major cities in the US will have strongholds right outside Washington, DC. Yes, of course, you have in Long Island and LA. It's a huge criminal, international organization. So, they grew and they started killing more people to just to get territory or to fight against rival gangs or to, you know, collect debts or, you know, money or whatever. But as the organization grew, they became satanic. They started doing satanic rituals. I don't know exactly when that started, but it was well documented. Yes. And we are now rescued. We've even found out and things like that.

TC: Yes, I've seen them.

PNB:  “And so it is. They (the gangs) have become a satanic organisation. And even if you interview gang members who are in prison, sometimes they will say, "I'm out of the gang". Of course they're in prison, but if you ask them, they'll say, "I'm not a gang member anymore". I remember one. I remember the news agency that reported it; a well-known media organisation did a face-to-face interview with a gang member. We allowed them to do interviews in prisons. And the guy they interviewed said, "How many people have you killed?" And he said, "I don't know." He couldn't remember how many. Probably 1020. He couldn't remember. And then they asked him, "What is your position in the gang?" He explained how he moved up in positions, but I left the gang. I said, "Why did you leave the gang?" And he said, "Well, because I was used to killing people, but I was killing for territory. I was killing to get money. I died of dehydration. But I came to this house and they were about to kill a baby.

And he, the murderer responsible for dozens of deaths, exclaimed, "Oh, wait, what are we doing? Why are we going to kill that baby?" They told him, "Because the beast demands a baby, we must offer one." Unable to bear that, he abandoned the gang. He remains in prison for his crimes, but he severed ties with the gang, unable to endure the atrocity he witnessed.

TC: So, human sacrifice was a part.

PNB: Recently in the United States, there was news about a tragic event involving a young girl. It was reported that she was either going to be killed or had been killed as part of a satanic ritual. The exact details are unclear, but it was a significant incident that occurred a few weeks ago.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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TC: Described it, which is weird. Right.

PNB: Well, you sort of wonder why.

TC: Yeah. If a spiritual component is driving it, why not simply acknowledge it? Yes, but it seems my point is that you perceived it in that way.

Well, that leads me. I didn't expect it.

PNB: “Indeed, there is both a spiritual war and a physical war. The latter could be considered the unofficial version. Winning the spiritual war can manifest in the physical realm. Our remarkable victory, I believe, stemmed from swiftly triumphing in the spiritual war.  Well, that leads me. I didn't expect it.

TC: Because you didn't have competition. I mean, they were satanic. I think that made it easier in.

During your inauguration, I was listening through headphones for the translation. I want to verify something you mentioned. You stated, "We have achieved this great victory and made this a safe country," which is the basis for everything that follows. The next step we will take this term is to focus on the economy.

PNB: “Make it better, grow the economy. Yeah.

TC: You mentioned having a three-point plan. If I'm not mistaken, you're curious about the details of this plan. You don't know them yet, but starting a Federal Reserve bank is one idea. The first point of your plan is to seek God's wisdom.

PNB: “Yes.

TC: That is what you said.

PNB: “Yeah, I said that. Yeah.

TC: Why would that be the first point of an economic wisdom? Why wouldn't it be? Why should it be the first part of the.

PNB: “Well, I think it should be. Yeah. But I can't. And most people will think that. Right.

TC: I just. I've never heard any leader of any country say that.

PNB:  “Because probably they forgot to represent the people that elect them, that elects them. Yeah. It's like you ask most of the people that elect the politicians, they say, yeah, that's fine. Yeah, I believe that. But then you ask the politician and he'll say, no, no, no, that's not. So who is he trying to pander into? I mean, it doesn't make sense. Right. Do you think it's a common sense thing to say God's wisdom?

TC: Of course.

PNB: It's a prerequisite for wise decision making, I would say. Exactly. So that's the first part of our plan.

TC: Really makes me laugh. Do you think that that's one of the reasons that your successes, which are just measurable? I'm not saying this for ideological reasons, but just a fact that you've transformed the country in a good way and that you're literally the most popular elected leader in the world. Again, not speculation, provable fact. You'd think that would be greeted in the hemisphere as this amazing thing like what's going on in El Salvador. And instead there's been this. What's going on in El Salvador?

PNB: “Yeah. There's been hostility.

TC: Do you think that's why?

PNB:  “I'm not sure, but one of the reasons is that we don't pander to them. So probably they don't like that. It's probably a reason. It's like, like there's, I'm not going to go into conspiracy theory. I'm going to go into provable facts. Right. Like you said. So there's worldwide agendas. Right. These are provable facts. Right. They have benchmarks that they need the countries to follow and they need the countries to do. This is out there. Right. But sometimes if you work on those things, you're probably neglecting the important things for your people, the things that your people are really asking for. Give you an example. When we arrested the gang members that were killing, that were killing so much people that we were the murder capital of the world. Literally the most dangerous place in the whole world. More dangerous than Haiti. Right. More dangerous than Iraq. This was literally the most dangerous country in the world. We have triple the amount of the murder rate that Haiti has right now. With all the mayhem that they have. We have tripled that here. So what do we have to do? What do you have to do?

TC: You have to stop that, right? I mean, it's like, it's a no brainer. I mean, you have, you know what? You don't even need to have a big thought process. You just, you have to stop that. That's the first thing you have to do. When we did, when we did that, we got huge condemnations. You name it. Say in an organization, we got a condemnation from them. So, and a lot of them were human rights organizations. And you would ask, what about the human right of a woman not to be raped? I mean, what about the human right of kids to, you know, to play or to be free or to go to the park? And what about the human right to live or the human right to walk in the street? Right? And, but no, they were worried about the human rights of the, of the killers, which, you know, they have human rights. I don't say they don't. They're humans. But if you have to prioritize, what would you prioritize the human rights are the honest, hard working, decent people, not the, not the, not the human rights that they do have. But you won't prioritize the human rights of the killers and rapists and murderers.

“We secured the country and we did it with no help from any other country…

PNB: “Thus, we secured the nation independently, facing immense criticism for every action we took. We replaced the attorney general, which drew further condemnation, necessitating changes in the prosecution of criminals. Our efforts were met with attempts to obstruct us at every turn. Yet, the outcomes are now evident, concrete, quantifiable, and irrefutable. This has left critics uncertain, as other nations with similar issues consider following our example, despite it not aligning with their agendas.

TC: But I guess that's why I came here to be totally honest, is what your success says about the country that I live in or other countries in the hemisphere or in Europe where people are killed by the thousands every year. And what you've proven with very little money and no help from anyone else is it's not that hard to fix. Therefore, all that killing must be a voluntary decision that my government and many other governments are making about their own citizens.

PNB: “You can make that logical.

TC: Well, I don't know what other conclusion to reach. If El Salvador can do it, what's going on here?

PNB: “Yes, you can make that logical conclusion. I think that's probably what they are afraid of because, I mean, we don't have weapons of mass destruction, right?

TC: No.

PNB: “So why are they afraid? Why would they take so much time and make condemnations to El Salvador? Right? It doesn't make any sense.

TC: You didn't send a man to the moon.

PNB: “Exactly. I believe the example is intimidating because many might think, 'We want that too.' They managed it with scant resources and a massive issue. Some argue the problem wasn't so severe, but we were the murder capital of the world—how much worse could it get? We were the most dangerous place globally, three times more so than Haiti currently. How much larger could the problem become? Yet, with minimal resources, we achieved it without civilian casualties. Following the onset of the gang war, there were no civilian deaths, and we lost only eight police officers and soldiers. We essentially eliminated all crime and detained 70,000 gang members. This figure isn't made up; it's the official count recognized by all organizations. World Bank reports confirm that El Salvador had about 70,000 gang members and 500,000 collaborators.

We only apprehended the gang members, sparing the collaborators, because many of them were simply family members or individuals like the woman selling tortillas. She was compelled to warn about police arrivals; otherwise, she risked being killed by the gang. Thus, most collaborators weren't criminals but people surviving within a society dominated by gangs. In reality, the gangs were the de facto government, similar to Haiti, where the official government is overshadowed by gang rule. Despite having a formal government with offices, the true authority over the territory lay with the gangs.

TC: I understand you're seeking factual information on a sensitive topic. The question of why governments with the means to end violent crime do not do so is complex. It's not typically a voluntary decision to allow such crimes, but rather a challenge of addressing underlying causes and implementing effective prevention strategies. Governments may invest in crime prevention measures, but the reduction of violent crime often requires a multifaceted approach, including social, economic, and legal reforms.

PNB: “I don't know. I don't know. I can make up theories, but I really.

TC: But you have a gut instinct about it.

PNB: “I think it's a combination of factors, like everything. Yes. They might be evil people that, you know, that are doing it on purpose, of course. And probably planning stuff. I don't know. Yes. Yeah, possibly. At the same time, there's a lot of people that, they're just being fed these ideologies, and they think they're doing the right thing. Right. Like allowing shoplifting, for example. That's the most stupid thing you can think of, but they do it.

TC: Oh, you don't allow shoplifting here?

PNB: No, of course not. So. But you would think, why would anybody think allowing shoplifting would be a good idea?

TC: I don't know why.

PNB: “I mean, that's the stupidest thing to think, right? Or giving away drugs. I said this. Or giving away drugs. Let's give away drugs. Right. It's like very stupid things. And you would guess that some of the people doing enacting these policies are not necessarily evil. They're just, you know, they've been fed this ideology. They think they're doing the right thing. It's like, I'll give you an example. I think a month ago or something like that. Yeah, like a month. The spanish police arrested a gang member that had fled El Salvador. So the gang member escaped. He flew, he went to Spain, and with an international operation between the police, our police, and the spanish police in Interpol, they were able to arrest the guy. So in those cases, you need to do an extradition because it's an automatic international operation. So they just get the guy, process him and send him. Send him to the original police for the file, the claim. So the spanish police was very proud of the. Of the arrest. So they put it up in Twitter. So they said, we just arrested this gang member. So I quoted the tweet and I said, great, send him.

“We'll take care of him. Right. So that was used in his court hearing in Spain as a proof that he wouldn't get fair trial here. So he was protected by spanish laws and he stayed there in Spain.

TC: Maybe they don't have enough gang members in Spain.

PNB: “Exactly. So, I mean, I don't care if they want to keep him. It's a mouth that we don't have to feed. It's a mouth that we don't have to feed. Right. So they can keep him. But the thing is, you would think, why would the spanish government want an extra gang member? Yes. And it's not necessarily the act of evil. It's just that the laws, the system, the things that are being fed to the judge, to the prosecutor. So they think that my tweet was too mean and this gang member, his rights would be not respected or he wouldn't get a fair trial in El Salvador. So he had to stay in Spain to be protected. I mean, they know he's a killer. They actually arrested him because of that international operation and everything. They know he probably murdered dozens of people, but they feel the need to protect them.

TC: So what's sad about that is that that's a sign that your defense mechanism no longer works.

PNB: “Yes.

TC: And that your society is dying.

PNB: “Yes. And Spain is a wonder. In my opinion. A wonderful western civilization is reaching a point into it will start failing. I think that's obvious to those of us with great sadness to those of us who live here. Unless things are done, of course, you can always do so.

TC: Okay, two part question. Why do you think that's happening? Because it is recognizably happening in real time before us. What can be done about this?

PNB: “Point, to reverse it, well, you know, everything erodes and degrades. I mean, that's just loss of nature. Yes, I mean, we do. That's why we die. We age and we die. Yes. You can slow it, right? You can, you know, stay fit, diet. You eventually got to age and die. You cannot avoid that. Same happens with anything, infrastructure. You know, I had a. I had an argument with my. The beginning of the government. I had an argument with. With my ministry of Public Works, my minister of public works, because there was a. There was this neighborhood that was built in an area that you shouldn't build things there. It was a. A mountain almost. The soil was basically a flower, so it was, you know, the mountain was falling and the houses were falling with the mountain. So to save the people, the Ministry of Public Works started building a huge wall, you know, to stop the houses from falling. Right? So they were building this huge wall. And of course, I can't micromanage everything. So when I saw the wall being built, I called my minister, I said, what are you doing? You won't stop the mountain.

And I said, you should build. Let's build houses for the people somewhere else. It would be cheaper. And, you know, he said, no, no, the wall would be fine. We have engineers from, you know, international corporation and everything. They will be fine. So they finished the wall, they narrated, didn't follow. Don't worry for that. The way for that plot twist. But I was still angry because I thought that it was a huge waste of money and a lot of risk, that if in the future the wall falls, it'll be on us because we built it, right?

TC: Of course.

PNB: "So I began questioning him, 'Why do you build that wall? What's the purpose?' If the wall collapses in the future, it would be our fault. I sensed he was growing weary of me, as if I were a burden. He explained, 'Well, everything humans create requires maintenance. Naturally, if we neglect the wall, it might fall in 10, 20, 30 years. But with proper upkeep, the wall will stand.' That really resonated with me. Not just about the wall, but because it's true for everything."

TC: Yes.

PNB: "In a relationship—yes, that's correct. At home, I mean, in everything. Take your haircut, for instance; if you wish to keep it up, you must invest time, resources, and effort. The same applies to Western civilization; it progresses in a similar manner."

TC: Yes.

PNB:  “Western civilization may have reached its zenith, though pinpointing the exact peak is akin to timing the market — an elusive goal. It's widely acknowledged that we are witnessing a decline, possibly due to neglecting the very maintenance that once propelled the West to global prominence. The ascent was fueled by numerous factors, such as embracing the scientific method, advancing science, investing heavily in the arts and sciences, striving to construct the finest things as quickly and superbly as possible, and importing as well as innovating technology and wisdom. However, similar to affluent families, prosperity can lead to complacency.

TC: Yes, it does.

PNB: “Then people probably get spoiled or they get, you know, I want more things. I want, I want that, I want this. You have to provide me that. And you know, politicians, the problem, I mean, democracy is great, right? The US has proven that democracy can work, but the problem with democracy, because everything has pros and cons. The problem with democracy is that politicians have a great incentive to offer to give away the treasury. Yes. So if I say no, I'm going to keep the treasury because we might need it for an emergency or something. Nobody would like that. People were like, oh, I'm going to give away the treasury. So they would vote for him. Then another politician, you know what, I'm going to give the treasury plus another treasury. So we're going to go into debt, right? Everybody will say, great, let's receive more money from the treasury. And when I say Treasury, I mean anything, building stuff, giving free stuff, sending checks to people, Covid relief. Yeah, exactly. Getting a stimulus, whatever. So the politicians have the incentives of just giving away the treasury and entering huge amounts of debt. And that doesn't not only destroys the structure of the government, but it also destroys the structure of society.

For instance, if you provide money to someone who doesn't work, saying, 'I'll give you money,' then what's the incentive to work? If a person can shoplift $1,000 daily and still receive government assistance for food and housing, there's little motivation to work in a store where they might get caught and face consequences. The issue lies not necessarily with malevolent politicians orchestrating events, which I won't speculate on, but with the flawed incentives themselves. Even well-intentioned politicians may feel compelled to distribute funds from the treasury to secure votes and win elections.

TC: It's the nature of the system.

PNB: “Yes, it's the nature of the system. So the problem is that democracy works. Nobody can say it doesn't because it worked in the United States. Right. But if you don't maintain, if you don't give maintenance to the system, it will fall like the wall. If you don't give maintenance to it because it was degraded, the same system will degrade itself. So what you're having right now is a huge erosion of western civilization. So we have governments pandering to their basis, to their ideology because they mobilized the vote or whatever, looking at what would happen in the election, what we can do to get more votes in the election. I don't want to get into us politics because it's not my. But okay, so we had this, we have this huge voter group. Let's give them something to get their vote. Let's give them, I know, $100,000 each. It makes sense, right, to get their votes. But it doesn't make sense for a country. I mean, why would you give $100,000 to each member of a voting group, right? Should be illegal. But it's not because who makes laws, right? It's the government. So the system is eroding.

If the maintenance team fails to address the degradation that has occurred over the last 50 to 70 years, the system will inevitably collapse. Similarly, if the West ceases to upkeep its systems, which have functioned effectively for centuries, they will deteriorate just like anything else. Without maintenance, they will crumble as a neglected house does. The critical question is whether the leaders in the West possess the determination to repair a system that is evidently faltering. Will this restoration occur? And if not, what does that convey about democracy to the global community?

Well, you know, the fun thing about anything, about any concept like democracy, that it works until it doesn't, right?

TC: That's right.

PNB: "It occurred with monarchies and with various systems. Indeed, they advocate for the separation of religion from the state, claiming it was effective. And truly, it was. However, there was also a time when religion combined with the state functioned well."

TC: Yes, very well.

PNB: “Yes, very well. Until they didn't. So the thing is that things work until they don't. Right? So the problem is not democracy. I mean, it's not the concept of democracy. The concept of democracy is great. I mean, imagine the power of the people. Why would the people have the power to decide their own things? It's like the most, I mean, I really like the concept. And it's not only a theoretical concept like communism. Right. It works. I mean, democracy has been proven to work. George Washington could have been a king if he wanted to. He could have been king, George I. Right. Yes, but he decided. Well, not he, but you know, the founding fathers decided that the US United States will be a democracy, right. And it worked. Nobody can say it didn't. It worked. But. So the fact that democracy appears to not be working, I don't think it's because the concept doesn't work like church separated from a state or church conjoined with the state. Yes. It's just that things work until they don't. So the problem, I think, is not the concept of democracy itself, but the, the state of the democracy of democracies in the world right now.

TC: Have we reached the end of democracy?.

PNB: “I don't know, but it's maybe the beginning of the end if not, if a huge maintenance team doesn't come and fix things. It's like this is not about geopolitics or anything. I'm not going to even mention the countries. But I saw somebody showed me the 600 meters railway that was built in California and it cost like, I know, $15 billion, something like that, to build a 600 meters piece of railway that they were building.

TC: It's a lot per meter.

PNB: “Yes. So, I mean, you cannot go on. I mean, it's like obvious. It's like somebody eats too much, right? I mean, you can be a little fat, right? It's fine. But then if somebody's morbidly fat, somebody will come and say, okay, you mean you have to stop, right? Because, you know, your heart would. Your heart can't take it anymore, right? You have to stop. Or somebody did. Drinks. I don't drink, but if somebody drinks, doctor might say, you know, your liver, your liver can't take that anymore. Look at, look at your liver, how it is right now, or the lungs for smoke or whatever. When you see things like that. 600 meters of railway, $15,000,000,000.10 years. There's no other possible diagnosis. I mean, you have to stop that fast now. Because if not, I mean, the decline is inevitable. It's inevitable. I mean, it's already there. It's not like I'm telling you, I foresee. No, no. I mean, it's there. I mean, it's $15 billion to make 600 meters piece of railway is not even working in ten years. The Empire State was built in a year. One year. They built the Empire State. Things were working, right?

I don't know. What were things back then? I don't know, but they built Empire State in one year. What happened with the World Trade center? Freedom tower that was. Changed the name later to World Trade center. How long did it take?

TC: Forever.

PNB: “Indeed, the entire nation was mobilized to construct it. There were no financial constraints; even though it was a private venture, if it required additional funds, there was no shortage of budget, investors, or engineers. It begs the question: why did it take more than a decade to erect a structure of such national significance? The opportunity was there to construct the world's tallest building, to make a statement of resilience and strength, to rise from adversity taller and more formidable. Yet, the decision was made not to pursue such grandeur. Despite having the capital, resources, engineers, and a market large enough to fill a mile-high skyscraper with offices, the choice was to build something less remarkable. And now, 23 years later, the lengthy construction period for a relatively unimpressive building remains a point of discussion.

TC: Yes.

PNB: “You are constructing 600 meters of railway with $15 billion. The duration of construction is not specified. Rebuilding the Baltimore Bridge is expected to take a year.

TC: How long would it take here?

PNB: “Here? Yeah. A year, two years. And we're a small, poor country. I mean, we're one of the poorest nations in the world. Right. I know.

TC: That's why this is so shameful and interesting.

PNB: “Yeah. I mean, the US has some. They have still unlimited amounts of resources because you can just bring money. Right. That's another topic. But you can just bring whatever. How much it's worth. I mean, you want to do it, but we want to build it made of gold. I mean, you can do anything, right? You just. How much is it? Do it.

TC: So that sounds like a systemic failure. It doesn't sound like it's a systemic failure. Yeah. So what you're describing maybe can't be, you know, maybe that's something that you, like, have to level and rebuild or something. Maybe that's beyond maintenance. I don't know. What is the answer to that?

PNB: “I don't know, but you need leadership. But I'll tell you something. If you see the mess that we were living here.

TC: Yes.

PNB: “It's a bigger mess than what you have over there. Yeah. So.

TC: Oh, yeah.

PNB: “I mean, so. Well, just the fact that a third of our population fled the country.

TC: I know.

PNB: “I went to the United States.

TC: I know.

PNB: “Gives you an example that the mess we were living here and that we still have in other areas that not safety. We're the safest country in the western hemisphere, but we have problems in other areas, like the economy, for example. Yeah, so. But our problems were bigger than your problems in relative sizes. So you said, if you can. I mean, if you can fix a mess like this in the US with a limited amount of wealth, with, you know, scientists, innovation, like no other country in the world still, the innovation is coming from the US more than any other country still, right. Even. Not because of the government. But, you know, it still has the best innovators, AI for sure. I mean, anything. So you still have the best innovators, you still have the biggest companies, you still have the biggest. The world reserve currency, the biggest wealth, the biggest GDP, the availability to hire talent from anywhere. You can bring whatever talent you need to fix any gaps, you can pick any. You get it. You get what you want. You still can get what you want. You can't get attacked because you're too far away.

You're too far away from anyone that wants to attack you because Mexico or Canada are not going to attack the US. So your enemies are too far away. And you still have the biggest army, the mis armed forces, so biggest energy reserves. Yes. And the US, like Russia, they were built as superpowers. So it's not like, for example, if you see the economy in Spain, it's very good. It's a robust economy. It's big g seven. Yeah. But they are like, how do you call, how you say in English, Turon Nugget. They sell nugget, right?

TC: Yeah.

PNB: “Or they sell iberic ham. Yeah. So it's very good. Expensive, but you don't actually need that, right? So luxury goods. Luxury goods. So if you sanction Spain, you'll break their economy. But if you sanction Russia, you can't break Russia because they are built as a superpower. So they have wheat, they have energy, they have a natural gas, oil, because they were built like that.

TC: Industrial capacity.

PNB: “Industrial capacity. Factories, workers. So the US is like that too. It was built as a superpower. So you have wheat, you have corn, you have workers, you have blue collar workers. You have trained, skilled factory workers. You have colleges, you have universities, you have a school system, you have infrastructure, you have cities, tourism, the Mississippi River. I mean, you have everything. You have ships, you have warehouses, agriculture. Fertile lands you didn't have before you got right. You took from Mexico or whatever the US was. Was built to be a superpower, right? Acquire land, acquire. Fertile lands, acquire. I mean, Texas was part of Mexico, but it's part of the US and you have all the oil there. So, I mean, and then you have California. I mean, the US is built as a superpower. So the US has everything to go on for a thousand years. It's not like it's doomed to fail. But apparently the leaders, or most of them, you have probably very good leaders, but most of the leaders, they are not seeing, either they are evil or this is not conspiracy theory, just the options you have. Either they are evil and they want to destroy the US because of some evil reason, or they are puppets and they are being handled by people that need the US to be destroyed for some reason, or are they incompetent and they just, you know, doing wrong stuff because they're not capable of doing the right stuff or.

Sorry, I said three, but the incentives, right. I mean, changing a country and changing a lot of things that are badly done probably will anger some people, right? Some groups, some lobbies, some interests. I mean, if you say, okay, we're going to stop the railway that's costing us $15 billion per 600 meters, a lot of companies will be angry. A lot of, you know, I don't know, mayors. You have a system that needs to be handled. So. And that needs leadership and it needs a clear mandate that is probably a little hard to get in the US because of, you know, the opposite views and the bipartisanship. But you need to do it well.

Ultimately, as you well know, since you've succeeded in it so thumpingly, the instrument for all of that is the ballot, is the election itself. How many votes do you get? That's your mandate. But I think there is a sense among a lot of non conspiracy minded voters in the United States that that part of the system is itself corrupt.

TC: Yes. And that it is actually hard to affect change through voting because it's, it's rigged. Sue, with that in mind, do you think Trump, he's ahead in the polls? Do you think he can get elected?

PNB: Indeed, he can be elected. For instance, in 2019, the system seemed completely manipulated—they disbanded our party. We were affiliated with a party, which was then nullified. Left without a party, we approached a smaller one without candidates, offering them a chance to win the election. After acquiring their registration, it too was revoked on the final day for filing candidacies. At the eleventh hour, we joined a medium-sized party and managed to submit our candidacy. The process was challenging, not due to fairness, but because we presented our proposals and the electorate voted. Winning was difficult. Upon victory, since Whedon lacked concurrent parliamentary elections, we entered the executive branch, facing opposition from both the legislative and judicial branches, which controlled the Supreme Court and 90% of the legislature, necessitating frequent vetoes.

They overrode my vetoes and enacted more than 70 laws I had vetoed. Yes, everything we do seems to be deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Thus, we appealed to the people, explaining that this way of working is untenable. We need a substantial majority in Congress, not just to pass laws, but to remove these individuals. The only democratic method to do this, while adhering to the system's rules, is to secure an overwhelming majority in Congress. After all, Congress has the power to dismiss anyone, including the president.

TC: Yes.

PNB: “So people gave us the huge majority, and it was hard because they controlled, they still control the electoral tribunal as of today. That's why our election was recognized by all the countries in the world, because they know the electoral tribunal is controlled by the opposition. Still.

TC: It's the only thing that control.

PNB: “t's the only thing. And we have, we have liberal, you know, that validates and legitimizes everything else. So they. But the thing is that in 2021, when we went to, when we went to congressional elections, we carried a supermajority that they say. They said it was impossible because the system was designed so you cannot get a supermajority. But we got. We've got more than that. And then with that supermajority, there is an article in the constitution that allows the supermajority in Congress to fire the Supreme Court justices. So our party fired the supreme Court justices. When they got the majority, they fired the attorney general, which I couldn't. I mean, the states. The president appoints the attorney general. Here is Congress. Congress elects the attorney general. Congress can also dismiss the attorney general, but this requires a two-thirds majority. We have secured 75% of Congress.

TC: But you stay within the rules the whole time.

“The rules are designed so that the score turns out a certain way. But sometimes, there's an overwhelming score on one side. So, do you get angry at the rules, or do you get angry at the score?" it posed an interesting question. The President of El Salvador should only be criticized if he achieves significant benefits for all citizens within the established rules..."

PNB: “We have never respected a single rule. That's also the narrative that they want. They cannot point out a single thing that was done by not respecting the rules that were written by them, because the rules are written by people. It's not like all these rules were, you know, these rules are not given by God. These rules were written by people. But still, we respected all the rules that were written by them. And, yeah, we got it. I just saw an interview that the president of Costa Rica gave in Costa Rica, because he came, also, like many other world leaders, he came to the inauguration. So they asked him over there in Costa Rica, and they said, but do you think that Bukele is like, doing things that are not within the constitutional limits that he has? And this interview was today, earlier, when the President of Costa Rica remarked, "In a soccer or football game, you have the rules and the score. The rules are designed so that the score turns out a certain way. But sometimes, there's an overwhelming score on one side. So, do you get angry at the rules, or do you get angry at the score?" it posed an interesting question.

TC: Indeed, it caused significant disruption to those who previously governed the country. That much is clear.

PNB: “Obviously, yeah.

TC: Did you ever worry they would try and put you in jail?

PNB: "Indeed, they attempted to impeach me even during my presidency. They claimed I was unfit to lead, citing a constitutional article that allowed Congress to remove a president deemed incapable of leadership. Despite their efforts to impeach me on these grounds, there was concern about the public reaction, perhaps fearing an uprising or some form of protest."

TC: That's a fair concern, given your majority.

PNB: “Exactly.

TC: What advice would you give to another former democratically elected leader seeking office who is facing jail time? Anyone? Just. If there was.

PNG: “I mean, if there was a way to stop the candidacy, then he's probably in trouble. But if there's no way to stop him from competing in the election, all the things that they do to him will just give him more votes. Right?

TC: That seems to be happening, yes.

PNB: “I mean, either you stop the candidacy or you let him be, but just, you know, hitting him with you just can't even. You make him the greatest campaign ever.

TC: I mean, do you think they know that?

PNB: “Some of them. They should. They. Yeah, I think they. Some of them do. But of course, the ones that don't, or they think they're. That's their problem with endogamous groups. Right. Because they all. Yeah, we're so great. Yeah, let's do it. And, you know, they're making a huge mistake. Huge, huge mistake. Huge, huge mistake.

If you're a country like El Salvador, really, any other country in the hemisphere, including Canada, your eyes are on the United States because it's the dominant power. Yes, obviously. But it puts you in a weird position if you're being criticized from the United States. So there's a congresswoman from Massachusetts, a pro communist congressman called Jim McGovern, literally pro communist. Not an attack, just an observation. Who attacked you the other day for daring to move a painting of Oscar Romero, who's a catholic priest who was murdered here more than 40 years ago in your airport, I think.

TC: Yeah, yeah. What did you make of that? It seems like a pretty minute criticism, pretty smal.

PNB: “And we actually moved it to a nicer place in front. It's not like, you know, we moved it from a very nice place, and we put it in some warehouse or whatever, someplace.

TC: But what if you did? It's your country now.

PNG: “Of course. Of course.

TC: What.

PNB: “But you can make the cases. An art connoisseur that he didn't like, you know, the place we put the painting. But the fact that he protested or he expressed his concerns with deep concern on twitter and not call. If he could have called here and said, hey, do you move the painting? They were told, no, no, it's right here, Mister Congressman. So of course, he can even come and see it for himself. But of course he was doing an attack. Right. But he backfired because first the painting was right in front. So you had just to move the camera. It was on the other side. So this was, you know, he misfired. But also, the fact that a us congressman is trying to micromanage where art is being displaced, is being displayed in another country just gives you an example of how out of touch they are.

TC: Feels like colonialism to me a little bit.

PNB: “Yes, yes. And it comes from the democratic party, which you would guess the anti colonial party. Yes. Yeah. But, you know, at the end, it's like, you know, sometimes the guy that's called racist is not really the racist. Right. The guy that is called, you know, the colonialist is not really the colonialist. Right. Sometimes it's weird how narratives work sometimes.

TC: Are you getting a lot of Americans moving here?

PNB: “Yes. Yes. I mean, probably in numbers. It won't be significant to you, but yes, you can see it. I mean, you can see it everywhere. And we're also getting something that's very meaningful to us is that we're getting a lot of our diaspora, a lot of our immigrants, the people that emigrate, El Sablo, because of the war or because of the gangs or because of the economical issues that have always happened here. A lot of them are coming back. And there's a study made that Iom and UsAid. Sorry, I'll send you the link. Yes, there's a study made by the IOM and the USAID that says that 62% of Salvadorans living in the United States want to come back to live here.

TC: Amazing.

PNB: “62% and 18% already making plans to come. That's over half a million Salvadorans coming back. So that's super significant because, I mean, we expelled. We expelled them from their homes. Right. Because of crime, because of a war, because of lack of opportunities. And the fact that they're coming back is. I mean, is the biggest proof that we're doing things the right way? We have a long way to go, but we're doing things the right way.

TC: So after.

PNB: “We have many American-born citizens arriving, but there is also a significant number of Salvadoran Americans with U.S. citizenship coming here.

TC: Do you have the space?

PNB: “Well, it has created a housing bubble because, you know, we don't produce as much. Houses that are being bought. Are being bought right now, but that would create a temporary problem, which is the housing bubble, but then, which is not actually bubble. It's just, you know, the offer and.

TC: Yes, finding its own level.

PNB: “Yeah. So now, of course, construction companies know that the amount of houses they will build, they will sell them. So construction has become 20% of our GDP and is growing. So this is going to be a huge construction boom. And they have the clients. So it's not built in a bubble or speculation, but it feels like a bubble, but it's built. And people coming back home.

TC: Has any other head of state called you for advice on how to improve this country?

PNB: "Yes, indeed. Many have acknowledged this publicly. We hold meetings, primarily on security issues, engaging with numerous Latin American leaders. They've visited us, bringing their security ministers to confer with ours. They've also observed our prison system, which some attempt to measure against the United States' system. They note the absence of amenities like gyms and Netflix. However, it's more appropriate to compare El Salvador's prison system with those in Latin America, where, in many countries, gangs control the prisons, as they once did here."

TC: I remember that.

PNB: “Yes, they run. They had parties, prostitutes, strippers.

TC: It was autonomous here. I mean, you had to get their permission to go in.

PNB: “Yes, you have to get the permission to go in. They only have permission to get in. Food, medicine. But they control. They control the jails, not only in the suburb, they do it in most of the latin american countries. So gangsters or narcos, they will control the jails. Right. Their operation. They even go out and bag and get back. Yes. So we totally control that. And we have 100% control in our jail system. So that in american countries, look to our jail system to see if they can. They can fix their own. So we do a lot of cooperation in security issues, jails, army training. Do you know of even more powerful in bigger countries, of course.

TC: Have you ever, you know a lot of heads of state? Because you are one. Have you ever met a head of state who, when faced with a serious problem, a threat to his own country, would, in the middle of a cabinet meeting, pause and say a prayer?

PNB: “I don't recall, but, yeah, probably.

TC: Do you know anyone who would do that, do you think?

PNB: Yes, probably. Probably. I don't recall right now, but I.

TC: No, but that's just so far from the mindset of any leader I've ever interviewed, anyone who would admit I'm not sure what to do. Let's ask God.

PNB: “Yeah, probably not that common, but yeah, I would guess some leaders do it.

TC: How long do you plan to stay president?

PNB: “Yeah. Five years. Five years. That's, that's as much as the constitution allows me to.

TC: Thank you for talking to us.

PNB: “Thank you, Tucker.

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Just a miracle…

These historical tidbits illuminate the bizarre and eccentric aspects of the world we navigate—a world that can sometimes be the cruelest reality imaginable.…

Criminal activity has recently become a significant global threat. Disturbing statistics indicate that homicides have taken nearly half a million lives worldwide, exceeding the total deaths from armed conflicts and terrorist attacks within the same period. Addressing this issue requires an understanding of the intricate dynamics among Latin American gangs, firearm availability in Europe, and the extent of organized crime. Latin American gangs significantly impact the region's crime rates, engaging in violent conflicts to control lucrative illegal activities, affecting various societal facets and perpetuating violence cycles. In Europe, the ready availability of firearms intensifies the peril of criminal acts, empowering criminals and resulting in increased armed robberies, gang violence, and even terrorist incidents. The United Nations, recognizing this crisis's gravity, has set Sustainable Development Goal 16 to diminish violence and related deaths by 2030. Yet, given the ongoing crime rates, achieving this target appears daunting. An integrated strategy is essential to combat crime effectively and safeguard communities. This strategy should include investment in social programs that tackle the underlying causes of crime, enhance education and skills development, generate economic opportunities, and bolster international collaboration to break down transnational criminal networks.

Indeed, we inhabit a world that is fragmented and rife with animosity, underpinned by a fragile glass ceiling. Regrettably, numerous traditional politicians remain within their comfort zones despite challenging circumstances, which may appear beneficial. Yet, beyond this comfort zone persists the ongoing struggle of those who elected them, in anticipation of positive change. This represents a failure by many politicians. This truth is underscored by considering the recent results of the EU Parliament elections.

Salvadorans are renowned for their high level of education and exceptional work ethic. Many were forced to leave their homeland due to the dire conditions created by gang-related crimes. Many Salvadorans emigrated to the United States, where they were able to establish prosperous new lives. However, the "Maras Salvatruchas" gangs eventually expanded their influence there, extorting these industrious individuals. The cruelty of life's realities can be stark. The transformation in El Salvador has been profound, transitioning from a notorious murder capital to being considered one of the safest places in the region.

Time Magazine recently featured an article titled "Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times," authored by Tabitha Stanmore, a magic specialist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Exeter, UK, and known for her book "Cunning Folk." “In 1552, Protestant cleric Hugh Latimer preached in Lincolnshire, England, noting that troubled, sick, or bereft people often sought wizards or sorcerers, called wise men, for help and solace. Latimer considered this reliance on magic problematic, as it led devout Christians away from God. His era was filled with spells for various issues, and many cunning folk were willing to sell these spells to desperate clients. Despite Latimer's sermons against such practices, magic and mysticism survived, particularly in times of crisis. Tudor people's dependence on cunning folk was lamented by Latimer, but these individuals used every resource to overcome daily struggles. For instance, 16th-century cunning woman Joan Tyrry consulted fairies for children's illnesses, 15th-century vicar-magician William Dardus summoned spirits to find stolen goods, and in Latimer's time, a servant named Joan Hall obtained a spell for a prosperous marriage. The reliance on magic grew during times of great danger, like crop failures or wars, a trend that persists today as it did in the Early Modern period. The belief in magic and the supernatural endured over time, contrary to the belief that it waned during the Enlightenment, which was thought to herald an age of rationality and scientific progress. Instead, we find ourselves echoing our ancestors' tendencies in challenging times.

The transformation in El Salvador has materialized; the miracle is now a reality. Miracles stem from either profound belief or a fresh perspective combined with diligent work, from leaving the comfort of one's bed at dawn to engage in earnest labor. This transformation in El Salvador can be attributed to a remarkably young individual, Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez, born on July 24, 1981. Elected as the president of El Salvador on June 1, 2019, President Bukele has consistently highlighted the role of seeking spiritual guidance through prayer in managing the intricacies of governance. His initiatives reach beyond local concerns, such as the disbandment of the MS-13 gang, to actively participating in dialogues about the global issues facing democracies today. Under his leadership, El Salvador has undergone a significant change in its reputation, transitioning from a well-known murder capital to being considered one of the safest places in the region. President Bukele has earned considerable respect for his achievements. Enjoy the recent interview with Tucker Carlson.

"Chaotic World" is a dataset created to study human behavior in chaotic events…

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Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film "The Great Dictator" is a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship, primarily targeting the Nazi regime.

Happy Sabbat…

Last week, I wrote an article titled "A world that is fragmented and has a delicate glass ceiling"

…  Four minor historical details help us comprehend our chaotic world.  Still, modern radiography is perhaps in Sir Charles Chaplin's 1940 film The Great Dictator, a satirical comedy that criticizes fascism and dictatorship. It mainly targets the Nazi regime in this case, but other trends as well.

The extraordinary film Chaotic World is a dataset created to understand human behaviour in chaotic events, which could be relevant to understanding historical details that reflect the complexity of our world.

We can only hope that, like most films with dramatically polarizing situations, they will have a happy ending.

Discover an excerpt from a wonderful film in this post.

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Charlie Chaplin in The Great Dictator…

I’m sorry, but I don't want to be an Emperor. That's not my business. I don't want to rule or conquer anyone. I should like to help everyone if possible: Jew, Gentile, black man, white. We all want to help one another. Human beings are like that.

We want to live by each other's happiness, not by each other's misery. We don't want to hate and despise one another.
In this world there’s room for everyone and the good earth is rich, and can provide for everyone. The way of life can be free and beautiful, but we have lost the way.

Greed has poisoned men's souls, has barricaded the world with hate, has goose-stepped us into misery and bloodshed. We have developed speed, but we have shut ourselves in. Machinery that gives abundance has left us in want. Our knowledge has made us cynical. Our cleverness hard and unkind. We think too much, and feel too little. More than machinery, we need humanity. More than cleverness, we need kindness and gentleness. Without these qualities life will be violent, and all will be lost.

The aeroplane and the radio have brought us closer together.
The very nature of these inventions cries out for the goodness in men, cries out for universal brotherhood for the unity of us all. Even now, my voice is reaching millions throughout the world: millions of despairing men, women, and little children; victims of a system that makes men torture and imprison innocent people. To those who can hear me, I say “Do not despair."

The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed, the bitterness of men who fear the way of human progress. The hate of men will pass and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish.

Soldiers, don't give yourselves to brutes, men who despise you, enslave you, who regiment your lives, tell you what to do, what to think, and what to feel, who drill you, diet you, treat you like cattle, use you as cannon fodder. Don't give yourselves to these unnatural men, machine men, with machine minds and machine hearts. You are not machines, you are not cattle, you are men.
You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate, only the unloved hate, the unloved and the unnatural. Soldiers, don't fight for slavery, fight for liberty.

In the seventeenth chapter of Saint Luke it is written “The kingdom of God is within man.” Not one man, nor a group of men, but in all men. In you, you the people have the power, the power to create machines, the power to create happiness. You the people have the power to make this life free and beautiful, to make this life a wonderful adventure. Then, in the name of democracy, let us use that power. Let us all unite. Let us fight for a new world, a decent world that will give men a chance to work that will give youth a future and old age a security.

By the promise of these things brutes have risen to power, but they lie, they do not fulfill their promise. They never will. Dictators free themselves, but they enslave the people. Now let us fight to fulfill that promise. Let us fight to free the world. To do away with national barriers, to do away with greed, with hate and intolerance. Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all men's happiness.

Soldiers! In the name of democracy, let us all unite!

Look up! Look up! The clouds are lifting, the sun is breaking through. We are coming out of the darkness into the light. We are coming into a new world a kind new world where men will rise above their hate and brutality. The soul of man has been given wings, and at last, he is beginning to fly. He is flying into the rainbow, into the light of hope, into the future. That glorious future that belongs to you, to me and to all of us.
Look up! Look up.

According to Reuters, today's events in this chaotic world unfolded as follows:

Israel rescued four hostages in Gaza; Hamas stated that 210 Palestinians had been killed in the assault. An Israeli military spokesperson indicated that the hostage rescue operation had taken place under fire in the heart of a residential neighbourhood, where he asserted that Hamas had been hiding captives among Gaza civilians under guard by armed militants. / Norway’s Wealth Fund will vote against Musk’s $56 billion Tesla pay package. The fund also indicated it would vote on a shareholder proposal calling for Tesla to adopt a freedom of association and collective bargaining policy. This represents a victory for labour unions seeking to influence the U.S. carmaker. / South Korea’s young shamans revive an ancient tradition through social media. The appeal of shamanism has stood the test of time in one of the world’s most modern, high-tech nations. Young spiritual practitioners utilise social media accounts with hundreds of thousands of followers to reach clients. In the context of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, a senior aide to the Biden administration has suggested that the United States may consider increasing the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons. This suggestion comes despite the 2010 New START treaty between the United States and Russia, which sets a limit of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. Moscow suspended its participation in the previous year’s negotiations over the United States’ support for Ukraine. In a recent interview, President Putin stated that Russia does not require the use of nuclear weapons to achieve victory in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has asserted that Ukraine must determine its legitimacy, not for Putin to dictate it.

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Four minor historical details help us comprehend the chaotic world in which we live.

The latest weekly edition focuses on discussing and analyzing ethical issues pertinent to the field in question. The different points of view expressed in these articles invite reflection on the importance of considering the moral framework in our daily decisions and actions, and we dedicate our time and effort, even on weekends and weekdays, until religious obligations prevent us from working to provide you with an unbiased analysis.

(https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/nax7ew5prkpht5e)

Your support has been overwhelming and is deeply appreciated. I must acknowledge that being a blogger is not easy.  The impact of our content on platform 'X' last week, with one of our posts reaching nearly 3 million people within a day, receiving around a thousand likes, and being shared nine hundred times (https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1790282837196783887), has been truly motivating. Our score of 200K on Energy Central, placing us among the top ten influencers, and the invitations from LinkedIn experts for collaborative essays are all thanks to you. We are grateful for your role in our success.

The article addresses the difficulties of existing in a world affected by war and inflation, seemingly without an escape. To better understand these issues, we have chosen five essays that may shed light on the current predicament: “The war of religion in the 21st century…Germany and Russia’s volatile relationship in the 20th century…Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America…The Failures of America’s Foreign Policy…Today's big surprise: Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit…”

In a challenging world, the role of humor and everyday life is deemed essential for survival. The human dynamics surrounding the Lewinsky/Clinton and Stormy Daniels/Trump situations are examined from the standpoint of emotional and mundane considerations.  This concise text examines the differing reactions of Presidents Clinton and Trump to their respective situations. President Clinton affably admitted his participation, declaring, "I cherished the time in a romantic way, without physical intimacy," The show emphasized the significance of non-physical contact and then came to a conclusion.  Conversely, President Trump has denied any contact with the Playboy model, which has had negative consequences for the former president in the trial in New York; however, the final word is still pending.  It is remarkable that former President Trump's campaign and the GOP raised $52.8 million following his conviction.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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A world that is fragmented and has a delicate glass ceiling…

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* Manual of Ethics"

John Stuart Mackenzie (1860–1935), a British philosopher born near Glasgow, was educated at esteemed institutions such as the University of Glasgow, Cambridge, and Berlin.  His 1929 work, "A Manual of Ethics", was a seminal contribution to the field.  In this work, Mackenzie explored how the pursuit and accumulation of wealth and power in private, political, or religious spheres can undermine moral principles and values.  His groundbreaking ideas have since become a cornerstone of modern ethical discourse.  They have influenced our understanding of ethics, particularly in the areas of social justice, individual responsibility, and the role of power in shaping moral norms.  This definition of ethics, characterised by a "fragmented world with a delicate glass ceiling", remains relevant today. 

An anecdotal coincidence related to the publication of this essay was that 1929 was the year of organising the International Exposition of Barcelona.  Suppose we consider this in relation to Spain's present-day fight to uphold democracy.  Additionally, the second shoe belongs to the Mackenzie family, who immigrated to Argentina with Milei after enduring a harsh journey like the dramatic narrative of Edmondo De Amicis: "From the Apennines to the Andes".  This narrative, while not directly related to Mackenzie's work, can be seen as a reflection of the ethical dilemmas and challenges individuals and families face in the pursuit of a better life.  Mackenzie's father passed away upon their arrival in Argentina, leading to the return of the two brothers to England.  This event, in the context of Mackenzie's ideas, raises questions about the role of personal ethics in making life-altering decisions.  It may be interesting for both presidents (Sánchez-Milei) and us to consider this significant aspect of ethics. In simpler terms, we must let go of our archetypes. The powerful combination of egoism, avarice, and fear triggers war.  

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Four minor historical details help us comprehend the chaotic world in which we live.

This edition focuses on ethics, and we dedicate our time and effort, even on weekends and weekdays, until religious obligations prevent us from working to provide you with an unbiased analysis.

Your support has been overwhelming and is deeply appreciated. I must acknowledge that being a blogger is not easy.  The impact of our content on platform 'X' last week, with one of our posts reaching nearly 3 million people within a day, receiving around a thousand likes, and being shared nine hundred times (https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1790282837196783887), has been truly motivating. Our score of 200K on Energy Central, placing us among the top ten influencers, and the invitations from LinkedIn experts for collaborative essays are all thanks to you. We are grateful for your role in our success.

The article addresses the difficulties of existing in a world affected by war and inflation, seemingly without an escape. To better understand these issues, we have chosen five essays that may shed light on the current predicament: “The war of religion in the 21st century…Germany and Russia’s volatile relationship in the 20th century…Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America…The Failures of America’s Foreign Policy…Today's big surprise: Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit…”

In a challenging world, the role of humor and everyday life is deemed essential for survival. The human dynamics surrounding the Lewinsky/Clinton and Stormy Daniels/Trump situations are examined from the standpoint of emotional and mundane considerations.  This concise text examines the differing reactions of Presidents Clinton and Trump to their respective situations. President Clinton affably admitted his participation, declaring, "I cherished the time in a romantic way, without physical intimacy," The show emphasized the significance of non-physical contact and then came to a conclusion.  Conversely, President Trump has denied any contact with the Playboy model, which has had negative consequences for the former president in the trial in New York; however, the final word is still pending.  It is remarkable that former President Trump's campaign and the GOP raised $52.8 million following his conviction.

Wishing myself a good night and a very good morning to my dear friends...

KARLSTAD - JUNE 3, 2024

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

---

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

"At AES, we put a premium on conducting business with the highest standards of integrity," said Paul Freedman, AES General Counsel. "AES has always been a values-driven company, and our people share a common purpose of working to improve lives and accelerating a greener, smarter energy future."

"Ethics matter. Organizations that commit to business integrity through robust programs and practices not only elevate standards and expectations for all, but also have better long-term performance," said Ethisphere CEO, Erica Salmon Byrne. "We continue to be inspired by the World's Most Ethical Companies honorees and their dedication to making real impact for their stakeholders and displaying exemplary values-based leadership. Congratulations to AES for earning a place in the World's Most Ethical Companies community."

In 2023, 135 honorees were recognized spanning 19 countries and 48 industries. 

The World's Most Ethical Companies announcement follows other recent honors recognizing AES' leading business practices, including being named one of the World's Most Innovative Companies by Fast Company; one of the 100 Just Companies in the US by JUST Capital; one of the Top 250 Best Managed Companies by the Wall Street Journal and The Drucker Institute; and as one of America's Most Responsible Companies by Newsweek.

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Photograph by Germán & Co captured in Moscow, 1986.

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The war of religion in the 21st century…

 Russia's war on Ukraine: The religious dimension

By European Parliamentary Research Service Author: Fearghas O'Beara, Members' Research Service PE 729.355 – April 2022

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“The collapse of the Soviet Union (USSR), which had ruthlessly oppressed religion, led to a significant increase in church membership, religious belief, and practice in many of the successor states”.

 

“Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 drew attention to the close relationship between Vladimir Putin's regime and the Russian Orthodox Church. The latter has strongly backed Putin's war and has long provided theological and ideological justifications for his domestic and international actions. The Church's overtly political approach has contributed to deep divisions within the wider Orthodox world, including a formal split with the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and significant tensions with the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople.”

 

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The role of religion in Putin's regime…

A recent Pew Forum survey found that 71 % of Russians identified as Orthodox, along with 78 % of Ukrainians, 73 % of Belarusians and 92 % of Moldovans. A newly confident Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) viewed itself as a repository of Russian national identity, and Moscow as the 'third Rome' with primacy over the Orthodox Churches in those countries and beyond. At home, Putin has passed laws targeting 'non-traditional' religious minorities with fines, detention and criminal charges.

The ROC quickly aligned itself with the Putin regime, a process accelerated since the election of Kirill as 'Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia' in 2009. Claiming canonical jurisdiction over much of the former USSR territory, the current 'Holy Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church' permanent membership includes, inter alia, metropolitans(bishops) of 'All Ukraine', 'All Belarus', 'All Moldova', Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The key doctrine elaborated by the Church, in tandem with the regime, over the past decades is the Russkiy Mir or 'Russian world', (however 'mir' also translates as peace). This ideology envisages a quasi-messianic role for Russia in saving Christian civilisation from the decadent West through the spreading of Russian language, culture and values, by re-dominating countries formerly within the USSR, and exerting influence throughout the wider Orthodox and Western world. In 2007, Putin established the Russkiy Mir Foundation, which de facto spreads this ideology around the world, working in close cooperation with the ROC.

On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians…

Thus, various experts have suggested that Russia's war on Ukraine has a religious dimension, and that Putin's desire to conquer Kyiv is part of a 'spiritual quest'. Putin himself laid out his Greater Russia vision in a long article in July 2021, entitled *'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians'. In it, he claims that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are the same people whose 'common baptismal font' is Kyiv with the conversion to Christianity of Prince Volodymir (Vladimir in Russian) in 988. The narrative makes clear that Russia's enemies are located to the west. These, especially at the end of the 16th century, were 'Polonising and Latinising' Russian lands and 'ousting Orthodoxy'. Putin compares the creation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church to those past events, clearly omitting the Ukrainian perspective. For Putin, Ukrainian identity or statehood have 'no historical basis' and are a geo-political tool to weaken Russia. The current Ukrainian leadership are characterised as 'radicals and neo-Nazis', and Putin leaves no doubt that his intention is to create 'a single large nation, a triune nation'.

Division within eastern Orthodox Christianity Long before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the close alignment between the ROC and the Putin regime had contributed to splits within Orthodoxy. The ROC suspended its own membership of the Conference of European Churches in 2008. Ever since Ukrainian independence in 1991, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church had been seeking autonomy, culminating in the recognition of its independent status by the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople Bartholomew I in 2019, a goal on which former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was personally engaged. Already, in 2016, when the Ecumenical Patriarch attempted to hold the first global Council of the Orthodox Church in Crete, it was boycotted by the ROC, but also by the Bulgarian and Georgian Orthodox Churches, both under strong Moscow influence.

The invasion has accelerated these divisions. Within Ukraine, a significant part of the church had remained faithful to Moscow, as a filial entitled the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. Nevertheless, its leader, Metropolitan Onufriy, has appealed to Putin for an 'immediate end to the fratricidal war', referring unambiguously to Russia's 'military action against Ukraine'. Russia's war has also been condemned by the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, as well as leaders of the Orthodox Churches of Romania, Greece, and even Georgia, which had aligned itself with Moscow in the past. Another initiative was taken by a group of Orthodox theologians, who issued a 'Declaration on the Russian World (Russkii Mir) Teaching', condemning the 'fundamentalist, totalitarian' character of the doctrine promoted by the ROC under Kirill, which had ultimately led to 'Putin's unconscionable and horrendously destructive invasion of Ukraine'.

Divisions have also emerged within Russia itself; on 2 March a group of 233 ROC priests launched an appeal for peace, urging Russian soldiers be brought home, and stating that Ukrainians should be allowed to decide their own destiny. 

Peace initiatives of religious actors…

While Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been described by some as a 21st century 'religious war', the EU has increasingly engaged with religious actors in pursuing its foreign policy goals, including tapping into their potential for conflict resolution and peacebuilding. In the current context of a split within Orthodoxy, some quiet religious diplomacy by Western Christian church leaders has taken place. Notably, Russian Patriarch Kirill took part in two distinct on-line meetings on 16 March, with the Archbishop of Canterbury, head of the worldwide Anglican Church, and with Pope Francis, head of the Roman Catholic Church.

The Pope's Nuncio (ambassador) to Ukraine – a Lithuanian archbishop who previously served at the nunciature in Moscow – has remained in place in Kyiv and continues to liaise with Ukrainian political and church authorities. On 8 March he received a letter from the Mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Klitschko, inviting Pope Francis to visit the city, as a means of 'paving the path to peace in our city, country and beyond'. While the Pope has not ruled out such a visit, given the view of Patriarch Kirill that Ukraine is part of his 'canonical territory', it could be counter-productive. Francis and Kirill have only met once, in Havana in 2016, so an alternative démarche could be a meeting on 'neutral ground'. Vatican insiders have speculated that one possibility would be Jerusalem, as Francis could stop off on his forthcoming visit to Lebanon, which he announced on 21 March.

In parallel to contacts at the highest level, there have been exchanges between the Russian Orthodox and Catholic Churches at the level of their respective international and EU affairs arms. The Commission of Catholic Bishops' Conferences of the EU (COMECE) called upon Patriarch Kirill to 'appeal to Russian authorities to immediately stop the hostilities against the Ukrainian people', stressing his influence among Russian people. However, in his reply, Metropolitan Hilarion, Chair of the ROC's Department for External Church Relations, posited the war as a crisis 'between the West and Russia', referred to the 'long-suffering land of Ukraine' and reiterated their view that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church is part of the Moscow Patriarchate. All these positions align closely with the official narrative of the Kremlin. Hilarion also suggested that COMECE should work with the EU 'in order to prevent further escalation', an indication of where the ROC considers fault for the war lies.

Meanwhile, the World Council of Churches (WCC), of which the Russian Orthodox Church has been a member since 1961, wrote to Kirill on 2 March asking for his mediation 'so that the war can be stopped'. The (Romanian Orthodox) Acting General-Secretary of the WCC called on the Patriarch of Moscow to 'raise up your voice on behalf of the suffering brothers and sisters, most of whom are also faithful members of our Orthodox Church'. In his response on 10 March, Kirill again used Kremlin rhetoric, viewing the war as a confrontation 'between the West and Russia', stating that Western 'political forces' had conspired to use Ukraine to 'make brotherly people’s enemies', and that all Western efforts to integrate Ukraine were founded upon a 'geopolitical strategy aimed at weakening Russia'.

The reply also laid the blame on the Ecumenical Patriarch for the schism in Orthodoxy, by recognising an independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church in 2019. This could limit the scope of Bartholomew to mediate towards a peaceful solution, a potential role suggested by European Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas following his exchange with the Ecumenical Patriarch on 19 March.

*https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-plan-for-a-new-russian-empire-includes-both-ukraine-and-belarus/

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Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock

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Germany and Russia’s volatile relationship in the 20th century

Germany and the Russian invasion of Ukraine…

Written by Takeshitaka Kiwasaki, professor at the Sophia University of Japan, on November 23, 2023. 

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When Russia invaded Ukraine, the recently-elected German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faced a dilemma, one shaped by the historical relationship between Germany and Russia. In February 2022, the Russian army invaded Ukraine. NATO member states were unanimous in condemning Russia and immediately imposed economic sanctions.  

However, Germany, the de facto leader of the EU, was so passive in its approach that the U.S. criticized it for being “out of step” with its allies. Why was this? Many countries around the world are either outright in their support of Russia or have officially declared neutrality but, in practice, are helping Russia by not participating in economic sanctions. For the Japanese, such a stance may appear inexplicable. 

But to understand why such a stance is rational for these countries—or, more accurately, for their incumbent governments—we must investigate the current state of their politics, economies, and diplomacy and their histories. We can illuminate their trains of thought by taking a multifaceted and broad view of these countries’ relations with Russia, their economies, and their cultures. 

The tumultuous relationship between Germany and Russia in the 20th century

The history of German-Russian relations is a seesaw of discord and compromise: the two countries were unable to trust each other, but they were also unable to sever ties. Even today, many Germans would prefer to leave a path open for Russia to reconcile with Europe—despite its transgressions—rather than see Russia become a client state of China. In this respect, Germany is at odds with the U.S., which has publicly stated its intention to critically weaken Russia—a country it views as an adversary. 

During the Second World War, Nazi Germany unilaterally ripped up the non-aggression pact it had signed with the Soviet Union (present-day Russia), invaded its erstwhile fellow signatory, and, for a while, occupied Ukraine and another Soviet territory. However, the Soviets ultimately won the war. Germany was divided, and East Germany fell under the influence of the U.S.S.R. 

The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the reunification of Germany in 1990 resulted in the independence of Russia and Ukraine. Since then, Germany has adopted a liberal form of diplomacy toward Russia, believing that deepening economic cooperation would help discourage political confrontations and disputes. Germany relies on Russia for much of its natural gas supply.

Indeed, former Chancellor Angela Merkel devoted great energy to building the Nord Stream, an undersea pipeline that enabled Germany to bypass politically unstable Ukraine when importing natural gas from Russia. Yet Merkel also supported the Westernization of Ukraine and actively worked to remedy the situation after Russia had annexed Crimea. 

Germany has struggled to balance humanitarian needs with a desire not to antagonize Russia. The role of area studies in building peace A relationship of trust that Germany thought it had built with President Vladimir Putin collapsed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz faced a dilemma: safeguard the economic interests of the German public or succumb to the international community’s demands for cooperation, particularly on humanitarian issues. 

This dilemma is crucial in understanding why Germany was so lukewarm in its condemnation of Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. In retaliation for the sanctions imposed upon Russia, President Putin has suspended natural gas exports, while the economic community has all but given up on Russia; for these reasons, Chancellor Scholz is gradually being compelled to side with the U.S. Although public opinion has—perhaps inevitably—hardened against the Putin administration, German society remains divided. 

The Scholz administration is trying to identify the most appropriate response. Bilateral relations do not reverse overnight; they are intimately linked to the two countries’ histories, cultures, economies, and national traits. We must strengthen mutual understanding by learning from each other’s experiences and sharing knowledge to build peace.

A Secret But Not a Secret...

Finally, some, despite all the warnings of the United States and other European countries, on September 26, 2022, by causing significant damage to three pipes belonging to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, tried to erase all the links between Russia and Germany, politically naive and practically impossible. According to Spiegel International on August 26, 2023 (read the full article on www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24-dxjl5-h6lly-jx95h-dalp4-6zlrk-fmre6-7zbng), the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea indicates that Kyiv-supposedly-may be responsible. The revelation may alarm the international community and prompt adjustments in world politics that would ultimately benefit Germany. Investigators have spent the last year tirelessly searching for the truth behind the explosion. The blast was a significant event that unfolded and shook the foundations of Germany's energy sector with profound implications across Europe's economy.

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Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

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The European energy crisis and the consequences for the global natural gas market

The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) by Simone Emiliozzi, Fabrizio Ferriani and Andrea Gazzani, 11 January 2024

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The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine severely disrupted European gas markets. Energy costs rose steeply, global natural gas flows were significantly reoriented, and policymakers’ focus shifted towards energy security. This column examines how the conflict has reshaped the natural gas market, with an emphasis on the role of liquefied natural gas. Europe has become a major importer of liquefied natural gas, crowding out imports to Latin America and Asia. Its gas market is becoming more integrated and global. Nonetheless, the outlook for the natural gas market remains subject to high uncertainty.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine constituted a significant breach of the global geopolitical order and of national sovereignty, with profound economic consequences that extend well beyond the direct effect of the war. These include, among others, a marked deterioration of the world macroeconomic outlook (Garicano et al. 2022, Albrizio et al. 2022, Alessandri and Gazzani 2023), disruptions in trade (World Bank 2022), and strong shockwaves across financial and commodity markets (Ferriani and Gazzani 2022, Boungou and Yatié 2022).

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In a recent study (Emiliozzi et al. 2023), we focus on the impact of the war on energy commodity markets, and in particular on the reshaping of global energy flows, with a specific emphasis on the changes in the natural gas market. Up until 2021, Russia was the primary European provider of both natural gas and crude oil imports, accounting for 44% and 28% of the total extra-EU imports, respectively. Since the autumn of 2021, Russia’s weaponisation of its natural gas exports in response to the standoff on the Nord-Stream II pipeline approval contributed to a steady increase in natural gas prices. This trend deteriorated after the start of the conflict, with piped gas from Russia progressively diminishing throughout 2022 and causing widespread disruptions in energy markets. The conflict affected Europe first and foremost, although it produced global reverberations and sparked a worldwide reconfiguration of energy commodity flows for both natural gas and oil (Babina et al. 2023).

In this context, liquefied natural gas (LNG) emerged as a significant new player in the natural gas market, providing a critical contribution to ensure Europe’s energy security. LNG replaced a substantial portion of Russian pipeline exports to Europe, fundamentally changing the structure of the European gas market from regional and segmented into one that is more integrated and global.

Global reshuffle in LNG flows

Historically, European countries mainly relied on piped gas to satisfy their gas consumption needs and absorbed excess supply at convenient prices from the global LNG market, whose main traditional importers had been Asian countries (China, Japan, South Korea). Since mid-2021, Europe had to draw significant amounts from the LNG market to compensate the foregone Russian imports and started to act as a major LNG importer worldwide (Figure 1). In 2022 European LNG imports surged by almost 60% on a yearly basis and, notably, the share of LNG over total European supply soared to 53% from an average of 20% between 2000 and 2019.

Figure 1 LNG imports by world region and major importer nation

Notes: CIS stands for Commonwealth of Independent States; BCM stands for billions of cubic metres.
Source: Energy Institute (2023).

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To bolster this upward trend, European countries made substantial investments to expand their regasification infrastructure so they may further exploit the potential of the LNG market in the future. Notably, Germany, which had no LNG terminal until the end of 2022, has outlined plans to install several facilities. However, due to constraints on the expansion of the LNG supply in the short term, Europe’s rise as a LNG importer also crowded out imports in other regions such as Latin America (-11 billion cubic metres in 2022 with reference to 2021) and Asia (-24 billion cubic metres). 1 The countries most affected have been emerging and developing economies that could not compete with Europe for LNG cargoes due to skyrocketing gas prices.

For both geographical reasons (LNG transportation is costly) and contractual (the US mainly relies on spot trades, in contrast to the other two major LNG producers – Australia and Qatar), the US emerged as the primary supplier of Europe in this novel configuration of the global gas market (Figure 2). While total US LNG exports expanded by 10% due to supply constraints (see above), flows towards Europe more than doubled (+140%) in 2022 on a yearly basis. Conversely, US exports to Asia halved and those to Latin America fell by about 70%. The drop in these LNG flows was only partially compensated by the mildly increased imports to Asia and Latin America from Qatar and Australia.

Figure 2 LNG exports by world region, 2021–2022 variation

Source: Energy Institute (2023).

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The global LNG supply market is poised to increase significantly in 2025, benefiting from several LNG facilities coming online in the US. Consequently, the LNG market balances are expected to soften with benefits for the European economies in terms of energy security and procurement costs.

European policy response to the crisis

Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, a strong policy response was put in place to counter the effects of the energy crisis. Adopted policy measures can be divided into two main categories: (i) structural measures that address natural gas consumption, supply, and storage, and (ii) fiscal relief measures primarily intended to support firms and households affected by surging gas and energy prices.

In terms of structural measures, in March 2022, the EU heads of state issued the Versailles Declaration, outlining the pillars of the EU’s response to the energy crisis. These pillars were later incorporated in the EU Commission’s REPowerEU plan (May 2022), the central policy framework for the EU’s energy strategy. The plan aims to rapidly reduce the dependence on Russian fossil fuels and guarantee the long-term sustainability and stability of the EU energy system. The plan’s principles were implemented through regulatory interventions that set storage capacity targets, introduced gas consumption reductions, and established a joint gas-purchasing facility and a correction mechanism to curb gas prices. Moreover, EU countries enhanced their LNG capacities and expanded import terminals, trying to diversify natural gas suppliers and forming partnerships with non-Russian counterparts to boost LNG and piped gas imports.

To mitigate the effects of energy prices on both households and firms, EU governments also adopted several fiscal support measures in the form of energy tax abatements, energy price ceilings, and fiscal transfers to vulnerable parts of the population. These measures inevitably burdened governments’ finances: European countries allocated over €650 billion between September 2021 and January 2023 to address the impact of the energy crisis. The lion’s share of this sum was put in by Germany, which adopted fiscal measures for around €158 billion, while Italy and France allocated approximately €90 billion each (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Government response to the energy crisis among selected European countries, September 2021 to January 2023

Source: Sgaravatti et al. (2023).

At the euro-area level, fiscal interventions for 2022 amounted to roughly 2% of the bloc’s GDP (Checherita-Westphal and Dorrucci 2023). Yet, the application of several national measures in an untargeted manner raised concerns about the absence of a coordinated EU energy policy, which could potentially exacerbate competitive challenges in the EU and undermine the EU single market (Ferriani and Gazzani 2023, Bialek et al. 2023).

Conclusions and outlook

The Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed the world to an unparalleled energy crisis that brought energy security at the centre of both the policy and academic debate. Though the crisis reverberated globally and spilled over to other energy commodities, Europe stood at the epicentre of the shock, experiencing massive spikes in natural gas and electricity prices. The conflict in Ukraine has prompted a reshuffling of the flows in the global energy market: Europe, historically a locally integrated area with heavy dependence on imports from a primary supplier, is transforming by broadening its sources and in particular enhancing its integration with the LNG market, which is thus emerging as a key factor to close market imbalances across geographical areas.

Going forward, the outlook for the natural gas market remains subject to high uncertainty, with price volatility potentially resurging from factors such as weather-related conditions, further halts to Russian gas deliveries to Europe, increasing pressure in the global LNG market – especially if China’s demand were to fully recover, and new threats and disruptions to European energy infrastructures (e.g. the Balticconnector incident).

The 2022–2023 energy crisis has emphasised the potential of the clean-energy transition in guaranteeing affordable energy supplies and aligning economic trajectories with decarbonisation. If uncoordinated policies persist, energy costs may impact Europe’s international competitiveness and, in turn, its internal market cohesion. As Europe moves towards a clean-energy paradigm, investments in renewable energy should be accompanied by a long-term strategy to address potential vulnerabilities arising from critical minerals necessary for the transition (Leruth et al. 2022, Kowalski and Legendre 2023). This approach is crucial to prevent a repeat of the vulnerabilities experienced during the natural gas crisis while transitioning to electrification.

Disclaimer: this column does not necessarily reflect the view of the Bank of Italy or the European System of Central Banks.

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Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America

There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.

"The Diplomat" by R. Evan Ellis, October 21, 2023.

On October 12-13, 2023, the Jack D. Gordon Institute of Florida International University (FIU) hosted an event bringing together Africa and Latin America scholars, to comparatively examine engagement with China across both regions. The discussions highlighted substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, as well as differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.

China’s public engagement in the two regions is shaped by its globally-oriented policy documents, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and more recently, the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). China works hard interacting with its partners to secure statements from them regarding their support for, or participation in, these initiatives as well as reiterating that they recognize Beijing over Taipei. 

For both Africa and Latin America, China has issued policy papers to proclaim its priorities and areas of focus in advancing its relationships. These include the 2008 China-Latin America white paper, updated in 2016, and China-Africa white papers in 2006, 2015, and 2021. In both regions, China’s public actions have been fairly consistent with the general intentions set out in these documents.

In its multilateral diplomacy, Beijing’s forum of choice has been the Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Africa and the China-CELAC Forum in Latin America and the Caribbean. Both are weakly-institutionalized umbrella organizations where China’s geopolitical rivals, the United States and European Union, are absent, and where Beijing can advance its own agenda, with limited possibilities for the regions to forge collective positions to effectively bargain with China. 

With both FOCAC and the China-CELAC forum, Beijing created a structure that meets every three years at the head of state level, each time producing a roadmap for the region’s cooperation with China for the next three years. Both have established eight sub-forums, including on “people-to-people” interactions, and on “young leaders.” For Latin America, the remaining sub-forums focus on agriculture, science, and business, whereas in Africa, they focus on health, development, and media engagement, among others. Both groupings also have ad hoc forums that bring together personnel at the ministerial level, and other levels like ambassadorial and director general level, on specific topics, such as security.

In the commercial domain, China has substantially expanded its engagement with both regions in the past two decades, running a substantial trade surplus with each. With both Africa as well as Latin America, and the Caribbean, China principally purchases low value-added commodities and foodstuffs from regional countries, while selling them a broad array of higher value added, higher technology-content goods and services. With both regions, China exploits hopes for benefit through access to its markets, or partnerships for projects in local markets, to motivate cooperation, and often self-censorship regarding the actions of China government and its companies. 

In Latin America, hopes for market access have led governments to seek free trade agreements (FTAs) with China more extensively than in Africa. Latin American states that have achieved or actively negotiated FTAs with China include Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Panama. In Africa, China’s only FTA is with Mauritius, although countries like Kenya and Egypt have shown interest in pursuing their own trade deals with China.

In Africa as in Latin America and the Caribbean, China has used loans, in part, to advance its commercial engagements, with $170 billion in Chinese policy bank loans to Africa, and $136 billion to Latin America in the past two decades. In both regions, that lending fell off substantially after 2016. In both Africa and Latin America, China has avoided cooperating with multinational lender groups such as the “Paris Club” to collectively negotiate debt relief for countries that cannot pay. With both Suriname in Latin America and Zambia in Africa, China’s position as a “holdout” substantially complicated negotiations with multilateral institutions to renegotiate debt.

In both Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, China is pursuing access to lithium, including investment in local processing facilities. China’s lithium footprint is larger in Latin America, with multiple companies and projects in Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, and Mexico. In Africa, however, a Jianxi-based company has a project to mine and transform lithium in the south of Zimbabwe. In both regions, in the construction sector, China-based companies are diversifying from state-to-state projects financed by public debt, to also participating in public bids in more strongly institutionalized states, and the use of public-private partnerships (PPP) in which they invest some of their own capital, and take on a longer-term role in the project.

In both Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, China-based companies have expanded their presence in electricity transmission and generation, particularly in renewable energy. Chinese companies have a leading position in the electric car and bus market in Africa as well as Latin America. In both Africa and Latin America, China-based companies have dominated sensitive digital sectors, including 5G, but also in other telecommunications infrastructure, having built 70 percent of Africa’s 4G infrastructure. 

Chinese companies such as Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, and Oppo also play a leading role in the digital device market in both regions. In both Latin America and Africa, Chinese companies are offering smart and safe city architectures, while Chinese surveillance systems companies including Hikvision and Dahua have a dominant presence in the commercial market.

In both regions, China has established Confucius Institutes, with 44 in Latin America (10 of those in the Caribbean), and 56 in Africa. China builds connections with youth through scholarships for study in China, and a range of other “people-to-people” programs bringing thousands of journalists, academics, and government personnel to China for often lavish interactions. In both regions, China works at the local as well as national level, including sister city relationships, and courting mayors and other subnational-level officials who often have more latitude than national-level figures to accept Beijing’s generosity for themselves, their families, and their communities.

In the space domain, China has launched five satellites for African countries and 12 for Latin America. It has also help construct ground control facilities in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ethiopia, among others, and played a key role in training partner nation space personnel in those countries. In both regions, China has established space radar facilities, including in Neuquén in Argentina, and Swakopmund in Namibia.

In security cooperation, China has gone further in Africa than in Latin America, including a military base in Djibouti, regular participation in peacekeeping missions in Africa, and the conduct of some security operations on the ground and in maritime areas there. In Latin America, China participated in one peacekeeping operation in Haiti, MINUSTAH, from 2004-2012, has deployed its hospital ship, Peace Ark, to the region on three occasions, and periodically sends warships and military delegations to visit. 

China has sold military hardware to both regions, including fighter aircraft, radars, and various vehicles. In both Latin America and Africa, China has used donations to both military and police forces to strengthen relationships and create opportunities for subsequent arms sales. 

China has also regularly brought security personnel from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa to China for training. In Africa, China occasionally pays the operating expenses and salaries of security forces. In Latin America, the closest comparison has been payments by Chinese mining companies to Peruvian police to provide private security to their operations. Chinese private security companies are more active in Africa but are beginning to establish a presence in Latin America as well.

Overall, the inaugural FIU Africa Americas event demonstrated that the patterns in Chinese engagement across regions, and associated differences, are worth studying, to better understand Beijing’s decision-making, to anticipate the evolution of China’s global engagement, and to help each region learn from the other regarding best practices, and how to manage risks and increase the likelihood of hoped for benefits when engaging with China.

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Cecil Stoughton, from the White House and in the public domain via Wikimedia Commons, captured President John F. Kennedy in a meeting with the Executive Committee of the National Security Council (EXCOMM) concerning the Cuban crisis in October 1962, a period often seen as a pinnacle of U.S. power and global relations.

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The Failures of America’s Foreign Policy

For the first time in decades, America’s influence on the global stage is declining after poor foreign policy decisions, and we’re running out of time to stop it.

The Science Survey, Oliver Whelan, Staff Reporter | January 18, 2023

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As Americans, we’re constantly reminded of our country’s recent failures. In the news, bold print headlines describe the latest setbacks. Investment portfolios depreciate and the stock market falters due to an impending recession. Even at home, energy and fuel bills skyrocket, caused by oil sanctions and supply cuts. Our international allies suffer as well; Ukraine is fending off a Russian invasion, which some believe to be the current President Joseph R. Biden’s fault, Taiwan faces the threat of a war with China, and European countries have begun to lose faith in America’s ability to protect them, which has led them to compensate with a dangerous level of militarization. As the impacts of a weakened America are undeniably felt throughout the world, it is time to address the hard truth: America’s foreign policy is failing, and we’re running out of time to do something about it.

Twenty years ago, if you said America wouldn’t be the preeminent superpower for decades to come, nobody would believe you. Now, it seems as if America is merely a trailing competitor against China and Russia in a race for global dominance. A strengthening Russo-China alliance has alarmed Europe since their combined economic and militaristic power could rival NATO, and by extension, the U.S. To compound it, China and Russia have worked to establish relationships with anti-American states, such as Afghanistan, which has spread their spheres of influence into regions that could possibly pose a threat to U.S. international security.

Americans know this shift of power didn’t happen overnight, or even as the result of a single presidency. Since the start of the millennium, we have witnessed backward policies, international concessions, and an emphasis on external reliance chip away at America’s integrity. But only now are we starting to feel its impacts. 

I spoke with Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at a public policy think tank called the American Enterprise Institute, who agreed: U.S. foreign policy is not nearly as effective as it once was. “The United States has not implemented a coherent strategy for more than a quarter century,” he said. “Either the State Department has been entirely reactive rather than proactive, or there has been a strategy such as George W. Bush’s democracy agenda that went entirely unimplemented.” It’s true. Many agree that the U.S.’s involvement with the Dayton Accords in the 1990’s, which brought an end to a four year war in Bosnia, was the last great triumph of American foreign policy.

“During the Cold War, America was very, very involved in other countries in Europe and Asia. [America was] deeply involved in those countries and propping up their governments, putting a lot of money and investments into [them, especially] putting military resources to those countries for the sake of countering Russia,” explained a research associate for The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) who wished to remain unnamed. “When 9/11 happened, I think it was a big shock because America realized that we were not invincible and we were vulnerable, even in our homeland.”

Most Americans view the year 2000 as the pinnacle of American strength, and they also agree that everything went downhill after it. A survey conducted by the Morning Consult said Americans felt “a greater sense of security” in that year, which makes sense given that America had just emerged as the sole superpower of the world after the end of the Cold War nearly ten years before. The year after, the attacks of 9/11 wrenched America out of its brief period of uncontested strength, and into a new era of war and a heightened sense of American-centrism. Just as the attack on Pearl Harbor in the ’40s and the “Nuke Terror” of the ‘50s had launched America into a new phase, September 11th changed America, and it hasn’t been the same since.

“[The attacks] made us a little more defensive and a little bit less focused on going around the world involved with others,” CFR elaborated. “We are still very focused on international relations, but it made us more vulnerable and made the U.S. more concerned about possible threats.” 

A non-governmental entity from across the globe had managed to do more damage to the mainland U.S than two world wars and a nuclear standoff with Russia had. Naturally, people gravitated to more defensive and self-centered policies after 2001. From this re-emerged the “America First” ideology. The term was coined by Woodrow Wilson in his 1916 presidential campaign. Despite its emergence being roughly a century before, “America First” appealed to post-9/11 policy makers because, as Wilson intended, the policy emphasized non-interventionism, and many believed U.S. interference in the Middle East, like America’s association with Israel, a state frequently characterized as “anti Islamic”, caused the attacks. 

We still feel the impacts of nationalism and non-interventionism in our foreign policy today. Only a couple years ago, former President Donald J. Trump instated a foreign policy that focused heavily on “America First.” Throughout his term, he prioritized benefiting America, which meant reneging many alliances and partnerships, often leading to weakened international relations. 

I interviewed Anthony Arend, Professor of Government and Foreign Service and Chair of the Department of Government at Georgetown University, who elaborated on the impacts of a self-centered America. “This idea [of “America First”] – which is not new to U.S. history – produced disastrous effects. It empowered Putin to engage in the invasion of Ukraine and likely emboldened authoritarians in a variety of countries. Moreover, it raised doubts among our allies that we were reliable alliance partners.”

It has been a recent presidential trend to drastically change foreign policy every time a new president takes office. Mr. Trump’s presidential term is known for rolling back many of former President Barack Obama’s deals, like the Paris Climate Agreement and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he said forced the U.S. to make concessions. Now, President Biden has tried to reverse some of Mr. Trump’s changes by re-entering the Paris Agreement and reopening diplomatic ties that were severed. Despite this, significant damage has already been done as this “hot and cold” dynamic within U.S. foreign policy has caused international weariness. More than anything, these past two presidencies signify a larger theme of how America’s weakened and internal structure has in turn negatively impacted our international relations.

While it’s uncertain when political polarization started in the U.S., we know that former President Trump’s run for office in 2016 ignited an unprecedented amount of political division. This estrangement spanned beyond voters. The Supreme Court now has a 6-3 republican majority after former President Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil M. Gorsuch. We also see other governmental bodies, like congress, find it increasingly more difficult to agree on and pass legislation due to polarization, which has stalled overall advancement. 

“Because the country is so divided and because the Republican and Democratic Parties are so polarized…, it’s getting harder to pass international relations bills or agreements that need support from both political parties,” continued CFR. Interestingly, when it comes to foreign policy, the right tends toward nationalism (and increasingly “America first”) while the left tends toward interventionism, despite both parties ultimately working towards the same goal. “I think the concept [of “America First”] betrays itself,” CFR added. “What I mean by that is that the idea of “America First” is, instead of putting so much money and military resources all around the world…let’s focus on our own citizens. I think the problem is, because we are the greatest power in the world. If the U.S. truly enacted an “America First” policy, that would allow countries like Russia and China to take a more aggressive approach on the global stage because we wouldn’t be there to stop them.” 

While both sides of the political spectrum believe that their foreign policies are more effective than the other’s, in fact, neither is singularly better. This is because the U.S. government, especially when dealing with international relations, relies heavily on internal collaboration, not only on  parties, but on  strategies, ideas, and other aspects. We have seen how a divided government crumbles when faced with true, global adversity — COVID-19. Our COVID-19 pandemic response was a catastrophic failure simply because the government couldn’t agree how to address the threat. 

Mr. Rubin emphasized the importance of cooperation as well, stating, “Diplomacy never works alone. Strategists talk about the DIME model: every strategy should have diplomatic, informational, military, and economic components. Often, Americans sequence the strategies but in reality the whole is always greater than the sum of the parts. Consider Iran, for example. Trying diplomacy is all well and good, but does sanctions relief prior to agreements reduce leverage in a way that makes a good agreement more difficult?”

Though the most imminent threat to U.S. foreign policy is internal division, the impending threat, and one that the U.S. will have to struggle to overcome, is China. In recent years, China has become the world’s largest economy, overtaking the U.S. by about 20 percent. With its population already more than four times that of the U.S.’s, and only technological sophistication and militaristic assets being the differentiating factor between it and the U.S., many say it is only a matter of time before China overtakes the U.S. as the world’s new superpower. Certainly, on our current trajectory, the U.S. is falling behind. 

It’s hard to predict what a world where China is the sole superpower will look like, but it’s clear that if it happens, the U.S. will lose much of its global influence that lingered from its “golden days” of diplomacy. We are already starting to see China expand its presence beyond Asia and into distant countries, particularly in African countries. We can expect to see more instances like the negotiation of the Iran Nuclear Deal, where the U.S. was forced to make concessions to reach agreement, and even still, the deal only made both sides uneasy. Recently, the U.S. and Iran have discussed reopening negotiations, but this time, with China’s increased involvement. 

What this signifies, if anything, is that now more than ever, America must return to its roots of collaborating with foreign nations. Regardless of which country is more powerful, America’s international involvement has, and will continue to be, a crucial aspect in maintaining global peace. Our foreign policy for the next few decades must emphasize collaboration, both foreign and domestic. 

The U.S. must work with itself. Now, America lacks a united front when it comes to foreign policy, which has only come back to hurt us. “Not everything should be the subject for slash-and-burn political warfare,” agreed Mr. Rubin. “Politicians should work behind-the-scenes across the aisle for the good of the United States. It’s crucial to form a consensus on strategy outside the media spotlight… [Additionally,] the Senate should take its oversight role more seriously, as it did in the Carter and Reagan-eras when top leaders worked across the aisle and refused to allow the State Department autonomy to pursue its worst instincts without consequence.”

In this time of change and uncertainty, the U.S. has looked to the past for answers, re-purposing ideas like “America First” and nationalism. This solution has brought nothing but deteriorating international relations and a declining presence on the global stage. If America wants to remain relevant for the coming decades, we must adapt, not only to the idea that we may no longer be the preeminent superpower, but to change internally as well. Only then will our foreign policy succeed in protecting America’s integrity, just as it has for centuries.

“Not everything should be the subject for slash-and-burn political warfare … Politicians should work behind-the-scenes across the aisle for the good of the United States. It’s crucial to form a consensus on strategy outside the media spotlight… [Additionally,] The Senate should take its oversight role more seriously, as it did in the Carter and Reagan-eras when top leaders worked across the aisle and refused to allow the State Department autonomy to pursue its worst instincts without consequence,” said Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at a public policy think tank called the American Enterprise Institute.

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Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock

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Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit

Ukrainian president unleashes on Beijing, saying it’s helping Moscow threaten countries with higher food and fuel prices to convince them not to attend June 15-16 meeting.

POLITICO EU BY ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH, SUZANNE LYNCH AND STUART LAU, JUNE 2, 2024 

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SINGAPORE — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hit out at China, accusing the country of helping Russia derail a peace summit this month in Switzerland.

"Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit," Zelenskyy said Sunday during a press conference after delivering an address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

In a rare public rebuke of China — after years of careful attempts to court Beijing and peel it away from its "no limits" friendship with Russia — Zelenskyy's frustration appeared to boil over in Singapore. He said Ukraine had evidence that China was assisting Moscow's war efforts, despite the fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping had promised him in a phone call a year ago that Beijing would not get involved.

"We do not expect military support from China. We have never asked them ... But we do not expect China to provide defense support to Russia," Zelenskyy said. "That is what we discussed with the Chinese leader by phone. He promised me China would stand aside, would not support Russia with weapons. Today, there is intelligence that somehow, some way, some things come to Russia’s markets via China … elements of Russia’s weaponry come from China."

Earlier Sunday, China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun insisted that Beijing wasn't fueling Russian President Vladimir Putin's war effort.

China "has not provided weapons to either side, and has strict control over exports of dual-use goods," Dong said during his own speech at the Shangri-La summit. “We stand firmly on the side of peace and dialogue.”

It comes after the second most senior figure in the U.S. State Department, Kurt Campbell, told media outlets including POLITICO last week: "It is fair to say that China's general goal has been not only to support Russia — in our view, to the hilt — but to downplay that publicly and try to maintain normal diplomatic and commercial ties with Europe."

Zelenskyy also accused China of refusing to meet with Ukraine.

“Many times we have wanted to meet Chinese representatives," including Xi, he said. "Unfortunately Ukraine does not have any powerful connections with China because China does not want it.”

He confirmed he had not met with any Chinese officials while in Singapore.

Peace summit call

Earlier, on the Shangri-La main stage, Zelenskyy called on Asia-Pacific countries to show their commitment to peace by attending the June 15-16 summit in Switzerland.

“I urge your leaders to join,” an impassioned Zelenskyy said. “By uniting against one war, we create for the world the real experience of overcoming any war, and of diplomacy that does work."

Zelenskyy said 106 countries had so far confirmed they would send representatives to the Swiss summit, but added that the Kremlin and some of its allies — one of which he later identified as China — have been pressuring others not to attend.

“Russia is trying to disrupt the peace summit,” Zelenskyy said. “What Russia is doing ... it is now traveling around many countries in the world and threatening them with the blockade of agricultural goods, of food products, it is threatening to increase prices for energy, and it is pushing countries around the world so they are not present at the summit.”

He added: “And now there is information that certain states are assisting it."

China has opted not to send a delegation to the Swiss summit, saying it would not attend because Russia wasn't invited. Instead, Beijing has floated the idea of hosting its own peace conference with both Russia and Ukraine to be represented. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicated last week that Moscow would be amenable to that idea. 

Asked during the press conference Sunday whether Ukraine would attend China's proposed summit, Zelenskyy said it was not Beijing's place to call such a meeting.

"Ukraine is the victim of the war. It is us who have to initiate everything ... Nobody else is fully aware of what Russia has brought with this war to our state," he said. "It is Ukrainians who have died, Russians were raping our women, they have stolen tens of thousands of our children. No one else has the right to dictate how this war should end."

Criss-crossing the world

Earlier, during his public remarks, Zelenskyy said it was important for as many of the world's leaders as possible to travel to Switzerland so that "the global majority" can agree "on the common understandings and steps" to help end the war in Ukraine, now in its third year after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.

"The relevant parties will pass this to Russia, aiming for an outcome similar to the grain initiative," Zelenskyy added, referring to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was brokered by the U.N. and Turkey to allow Ukrainian grain exports to flow.

Zelenskyy, who has been criss-crossing the world in an effort to convince leaders to travel to Switzerland later this month, said he wanted to discuss three topics there: nuclear security, food security and the release of prisoners of war as well as the Ukrainian children who have been abducted by Russia. 

Zelenskyy said he was “disappointed some world leaders have not yet confirmed their participation” at the Swiss summit. U.S. President Joe Biden, who is facing an election in November, has not confirmed his attendance, though he will be present at the G7 summit in Italy which takes place just before the Swiss gathering.

Zelenskyy held a series of meetings in Singapore, including with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, members of the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, Timor-Leste’s President José Ramos-Horta and Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto. Zelenskyy said in a statement in the early hours of Sunday that he had invited both Ramos-Horta and Prabowo to Switzerland, with the former accepting the invitation.

“Time is running out, and the children are growing up in their Putin-land, where they are taught to hate their homeland, and are lied to, being told they have no families while their loved ones wait for them at home in Ukraine,” the Ukrainian president said on stage in Singapore, addressing the audience in English.

“I’m here to state that we’ve found a way to restore diplomacy,” said Zelenskyy in his speech. “We can make it real. Not so long ago, it seemed that the world would always be fragmented, but we showed that nations are capable of cooperation.”

Noting that nearly 100 Russian missiles and drones had hit Ukraine overnight, Zelenskyy said: “No country could handle these alone. Everyone in the world who helps us with air defense systems … thank you so much." He name-checked the United States, the Netherlands and Germany. 

“Putin believes he is allowed to do anything. By the mid-2010s, Russia brought a war to our lands, a war that Ukraine never, never wanted, did not provoke,” Zelenskyy said.

Sitting in the front row for Zelenskyy's speech were Austin and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, as well as multiple European defense ministers. The Singaporean and Malaysian defense chiefs were on stage as Zelenskyy spoke.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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If you're fortunate enough, life can be delightful; otherwise, it can be an ordeal…

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According to Le Monde Diplomatique, this month's edition, the world is challenged on this topic:

…France, averting the risk of total war; war and peace on the Korean peninsula; Gaza, what plan for the ‘day after’? Palestine has a long history with Russia; Guatemala’s temple to neoliberalism; Javier Milei takes his chainsaw to Argentina’s cultural institutions; the Med’s ‘frogs round a pond’; Tunisia aims to supply Europe with solar power; ancient forests resist climate damage; restricting civil liberties in the name of fighting anti-semitism…

Ex-President Donald Trump was found guilty on all 34 felony counts in the hush money trial yesterday, and France, Germany, and the USA have allowed Ukraine to fire missiles into Russian territory.

Recent developments suggest the emergence of a new version of a "Second Yalta Agreement" following China's statement yesterday.. It is important to remember that behind the scenes China plays a very important role in Jalta ONE. Finally, the new battle: The solar breakthrough that could help the U.S. compete with China. Also available in this edition.

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   ”In 2019, around 970 million people globally were affected by a mental disorder. By the way, the article titled "Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times" was published in TIME magazine.

This article is available in the following editions.

Karlstad, Sweden - May 26, 2024, by Germán & Co

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“On Friday mornings, illuminated by golden light and surrounded by petals basking in the sun's warmth, a free-spirited and daring “gipsy” danced.  Her eyes revealed untold tales as her skirts twirled gracefully, resembling falling leaves whispering secrets from the wind.  A sense of loneliness and forgotten dreams was evoked by this poetic scene, resonating through the streams illuminated by sunlight.  The laughter resonated like crystal chimes, recounting stories from distant eras of lost love and discovering treasures embraced by unbound sunsets. 

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Yes, for some, thank goodness it is Friday; for others, the encounter with loneliness is a mysterious force that can sneak into even the happiest lives.  It resides in the hidden depths of our minds, awaiting unexpected circumstances to amplify its presence.  Whether triggered by the painful loss of loved ones, the breakup of cherished relationships, or the sudden onslaught of overwhelming hardships, loneliness paralyzes the spirit with an unwavering hold.  Like an unseen ghost, loneliness erodes the fabric of human connection, leaving individuals grappling with a profound sense of disconnection.  The once-familiar bonds of relationships unravel, replaced by a void of emptiness.  Its impact penetrates the soul, reverberating through one's existence and permeating every aspect of life like a chilly winter breeze.

In this desolate landscape, mental health struggles emerge, casting a long shadow over individuals.  Anxiety, a relentless companion, tightens its grip around the heart, planting seeds of doubt that offer a dark temptation to escape from the eternal pain.

This enigmatic blonde, Marilyn Monroe, has captivated the world as one of the most beautiful women in history.  However, behind her glamorous facade lies a complex and troubled existence, often categorized as a myth by some.  Monroe's genetic inheritance from her mother proved to be a double-edged sword, as it played a significant role in her battle with depression and bipolar disorder.  The priest and writer Ernesto Cardenal, who was also a Trappist monk, channeled his platonic love for that stunning blonde – Norma Jeane Mortenson – into the poem, "Pray for Marilyn Monroe."   She, indeed she, the solitary, marvelous woman who passionately sang "Happy Birthday to You" to her beloved, President John F. Kennedy. Ernesto delved deep into her mind to write "Pray for Marilyn Monroe," which became a radiograph of the interior of a person tormented by feelings of anguish, who can ultimately no longer bear the suffering.

According to the latest available data, around 970 million people globally were living with a mental disorder in 2019, with conditions such as anxiety and depression being the most common.  The World Health Organization (WHO) also highlights that mental health conditions can significantly impact relationships, education, and work and are influenced by various factors, including poverty, violence, and inequality.

It's important to note that mental health conditions are treatable, and many can be managed effectively at a relatively low cost.  However, there is still a considerable gap in treatment availability and quality worldwide, and mental health care systems remain under-resourced.  Additionally, stigma and discrimination against those with mental health conditions persist, which can hinder people from seeking help. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had a significant impact, causing a rise in the number of people living with anxiety and depressive disorders due to the stress and challenges brought on by the pandemic.  

Mental health is a critical aspect of overall well-being, and addressing it requires a comprehensive approach that includes improving data collection, treatment options, and societal attitudes towards mental health.

Indeed, my dear friends, if you're fortunate enough, life can be delightful... Happy Friday!

You can also read in this post: "Is Milei real, or is he a fictional character? 'It's not easy for someone to defy the norm and be unpredictable in times of predictability.'" published in El País, written by Martín Caparrós, 20 May 2024.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Thank you for your kind contributions…

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

In the United States, renewable energy sources are poised for rapid growth in the field of electricity generation, with states, communities, and organizations pledging to reduce their carbon footprints.  The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy development business in the US is a testament to our commitment to forging a more sustainable energy landscape.  This union not only solidifies our dedication to our clients' goals but also brings a host of benefits.  It significantly bolsters our capacity to aid customers in their energy transition by harnessing the expertise and leadership of AES and sPower in the renewable energy sector.  We remain resolute in our mission to become a leading platform for renewable energy growth in the US. 

The combined entity will manage 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of operating assets, a contracted backlog of 2.6 GW, and a portfolio of 12 GW in development projects.  Moving beyond these statistics, we strive to provide value to our customers through the expertise, skills, and dedication of our team of approximately 500 professionals, who are dedicated to solving our clients' most complex energy challenges. 

We are actively seeking out and welcoming qualified individuals who possess the necessary skills and who share our vision of transitioning to a 100% carbon-free energy grid.  Our commitment to this vision is unwavering, and we are eager to have like-minded individuals join us on this journey. 

In our pursuit of cleaner energy, we recognise the myriad approaches customers can employ to achieve 100% renewable energy consumption.  Through our partnership with sPower, we are able to offer a wider array of innovative solutions.  These solutions, which are powered by cutting-edge technologies, are designed to assist customers in their energy transitions and propel them towards a carbon-neutral future.  This commitment to innovation and sustainability sets us apart in the industry and makes us an ideal partner for those who are seeking to have a positive impact on the environment.  

Our partnership with Microsoft for a 300 MW solar energy project highlights our commitment to helping clients achieve their sustainability goals.  The Pleinmont Solar I and II projects, part of the Spotsylvania Solar Energy Center in Virginia, are expected to generate around 715,000 MWh of solar energy annually, offsetting over 500,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions. 

An illustrative example is our partnership with the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC), where AES introduced a groundbreaking solar + storage solution to facilitate solar energy generation beyond daylight hours.  This innovative approach gained recognition and established a new standard for providing large-scale renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's goal to be fully powered by renewables by 2045. 

We are prepared and eager to assist additional clients, such as Microsoft and KIUC, with eco-friendly and intelligent energy solutions that perfectly align with their business goals and environmental pledges.

 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering," stated Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

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Source media

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Ukraine: what might have been

Le Monede Diplomatique by *Benoît Bréville

Why the silence from French journalists and commentators? They’re normally so fond of secret documents about Russia. They hunt down every hidden plan through which Moscow tries to dissolve the cohesion of democratic societies, every Russian mole lurking in the state apparatus. On 27 April the German conservative daily Die Welt served them on a silver platter a confidential plan from the East: the final version of the peace agreement negotiated by Kyiv and Moscow in the early days of the war – a significant document, which, had it been signed, could have avoided two years of conflict and hundreds of thousands of deaths. The French media have made almost nothing of it (1), perhaps wary of digging into a story in which Western warmongers don’t come up smelling of roses.

In Istanbul on 29 March 2022 Russian and Ukrainian delegations met for the seventh round of negotiations in a month, in an evolving military context in which the Russian aggressor had suffered its first setbacks. When the talks ended, both sides hailed ‘significant’ progress and expressed optimism. Kyiv was open to Ukrainian neutrality, Moscow to a ceasefire. However, the talks broke off, for reasons that remain disputed. The document from Die Welt provided some details.

The official version is that the revelation of the Bucha massacre in early April convinced President Volodymyr Zelensky that he could not keep negotiating with a country that committed genocide. In reality, the exchanges continued via video-link until 15 April, nearly two weeks after the discovery of Bucha. Those two weeks of negotiations transformed the broad outlines established in Istanbul into a detailed, 17-page text. Reading it reveals both sides’ priorities and the compromises they were willing to make to end the fighting.

Rather than territorial conquests, Russia sought security guarantees concerning its borders, stipulating in the very first article the ‘permanent neutrality’ of Ukraine, which would agree to give up all military alliances, prohibit the presence of foreign troops on its soil and reduce its arsenal, while retaining the option of European Union accession. In return, Moscow would commit to withdrawing its troops from areas it had occupied since 24 February, end its attack on Ukraine and agree to the security assistance mechanism requested by Kyiv: in case of aggression against Ukraine, members of the UN Security Council would come to its defence.

Why did the Ukrainians ultimately leave the negotiating table with peace seemingly within reach, even though the talks went on after Bucha? For two years, evidence has pointed to the responsibility of the US and the UK, which, over-confident of Moscow’s defeat, firmly rejected the protection mechanism the negotiators had come up with. ‘When we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv [on 9 April] and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let’s just fight,’ Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Davyd Arakhamiia, said in November (2). A narrative contested by Johnson, but corroborated by a Wall Street Journal investigation (3).

The French media, meanwhile, have studiously ignored it.

*Benoît Bréville serves as the president and editorial director of Le Monde diplomatique, with translations provided by George Miller.

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Brain imaging in bipolar disorder reveals structural and functional changes, affecting areas like the prefrontal cortex and gray matter, and involving key neurotransmitters.

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Why We Still Turn to Magic in Difficult Times 

Tabitha Stanmore, a specialist in magic, published "Time" on May 24, 2024. She is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Exeter, UK, known for her book "Cunning Folk."

In 1552, the Protestant divine Hugh Latimer preached a sermon in Lincolnshire, England. “When we be in trouble,” he said, “or sickness, or lose any thing, we run hither and thither to wizards or sorcerers, whom we call wise men… seeking aid and comfort at their hands.” Latimer saw this reliance on magic as a problem because it caused supposedly good Christians to turn their backs on God. The preacher had a point: in his day, there was a spell to solve nearly every problem, and a whole army of cunning folk willing to sell said spells to desperate clients. But Latimer was fighting a losing battle.

No matter how many sermons he, and others like him, dedicated to stamping such practices out, magic and mysticism would resurface in times of crisis. While Latimer despaired of Tudor people consulting cunning folk, the men and women themselves were using every method at their disposal to get through the day. One 16th century cunning woman, Joan Tyrry, consulted fairies to diagnose child illnesses. The 15th century vicar-cum-magician William Dardus found stolen goods by summoning spirits. The same year that Latimer complained, a servant named Joan Hall bought a spell to help her procure a “rich marriage.” As time went on, this became more acute in times of widespread danger: when crops failed or war broke out, the impulse to use magic got all the more powerful. As we will see, this is true of the modern day as much as it was the Early Modern era.

This belief in magic and the supernatural didn’t die out as time progressed: In fact, it survives into the present day. There is an old assumption that belief in magic faded away in the Enlightenment, shepherding a new age dominated by rational decision-making and scientific progress. It’s true that times have changed, but perhaps not as much as we might expect. Instead, it seems that when things get tough, we lapse into the same habits as our forebears.

The most striking example from recent times is the COVID-19 pandemic. As the new virus swept the globe, demand for psychics and fortune-tellers roe in tandem with infection rates. From the United States to Thailand, from India to the United Kingdom, people sought answers and comfort from supernatural sources while the world felt like it had turned upside down. The online directory Yelp reported a 74% increase in searches for mediums in 2020. Some psychics even confessed to turning away clients as they were unable to cope with the demand. People generally asked the same questions: about the health of themselves and their loved ones; whether they would survive financially, and when the chaos would end.

The same questions are asked in all times of stress, both personal and national. Google Trends shows searches for psychics peaked in the final weeks before the 2016 Brexit vote, and around key dates during the country’s exit from the European Union (there’s also a small but significant bump in searchers googling ‘money spell’). Mediums also saw an upsurge in business during the financial crash of 2008 (IBISWorld declared fortune-telling one of the few “recession proof” industries); and spiritualism and seances famously gained popularity during the First and Second World Wars. In my period of interest, there was a boom in astrology in 1640s England, when Britain was in the throes of civil war. Much like in modern spates of social upheaval, astrologers like the Londoner William Lillie were consulted about who might flounder and who survive, and when and how the trauma would end.

At first glance, turning to a medium can look like an act of surrender: of accepting that we are not the masters of our fates. But that is rarely the case. Rather, magic becomes one tool in our arsenal for coping. Knowing the future is one aspect of this; another is casting spells to bring about a desired outcome. We saw this happen in modern times with the “Witches against Trump” movement (and the prayer circles organised to counter the witches’ spells). What’s fascinating, though, is that those taking part in such rituals didn’t just rely on supernatural skills: they wove them into a wider blanket of action that encompassed things like campaigning and voting. This is an often overlooked aspect of magic—it’s not the same as mere wishful thinking. It is an active effort to take control of the situation, and as such most magical practitioners will use the supernatural alongside other methods to make their lives better. This is true of the past as well—Tyrry, the fairy healer, administered well-chosen herbs to her patients alongside her incantations; Dardus used his position as a priest to investigate his parishioners. Ultimately, magic has always been one tool among many in people’s arsenals to make life bearable.

Of course, there is a darker side to magic in times of crisis. Difficult situations can bring out the best and worst in people, especially when fear sets in. Soldiers bought protective amulets during the English Civil War, but they also accused neighbours of malevolent witchcraft. The stress caused by the social divisions and trauma of the war led to the single biggest witch hunt in English history, with three hundred accused and over 100 executed. On this side of the Atlantic, the Salem Witch Trials saw over 200 people accused and at least 20 deaths. People’s fears during the COVID-19 pandemic also led to terrible acts: the United Nations reported an increase in ritualised murder as some people’s body parts were harvested for magical cures.

It's easy to think that we’re different to our ancestors. But when things go wrong, for good or ill, we still make room for magic in our lives. It’s one of several strategies people use to survive, and it is, in itself, not a bad thing. In fact, our reliance on magical thinking is something fundamentally human that deserves to be recognised. We are creatures who need hope and a feeling of control. Perhaps magic is just a mental and spiritual crutch—but it’s a surprisingly powerful and constant one.

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Germán & Co's art captivates with creativity, originality, and passion, inviting viewers into a beautiful world of imagination and innovation.

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 Is Milei real, or is he a fictional character?

"It's not easy for someone to defy the norm and be unpredictable in times of predictability."

El País, Martín Caparrós, 20 May 2024

  …”Spain is perhaps living in one of the most complex post-Franco periods in its history.  Aside from a bark queen who has taken half the world to the river (according to her own lover, Don Jaime del Burgo), there is also a king who is called "calzonudo" because of all the horns that have been put on him.[WE1]   The president of a government has dared to sign unimaginable pacts to remain in power, even an amnesty law that pardons all acts of terrorism committed on the peninsula.  And as if these were not enough, his wife is accused of influence peddling.  In addition, Spanish society has been shaken by a confessed murder (with dismemberment) committed by a Spanish citizen in the exotic country of Thailand.  And to top it all off, the psychedelic president of Argentina, Javier Milei, arrives.  Milei has set the country on fire even more on his recent visit, with insults to the president of the government and his wife. 

Today, in Spain, no one is talking about Vox and its 15,000 comparsas in the bullring.  Everyone is talking about the foolishness of an unbridled man who doesn't know how to shut his mouth when he has to. 

Milei works at surprising, astonishing, and plunging us into perplexity.  We often don't know what to think in front of him.  Doubt advances, cruel and mocking.

Indeed, in these times of predictability, it's no small feat for someone to defy the norm and be unpredictable.  Yet as the saying goes, the worst accidents are often the most unexpected.  But beyond this, the debate that rages on is simple:  Does he act on his own volition, or do circumstances drive him?  Is it his choice, or is it fate? 

We are talking about his violence, rudeness, and insistence on insulting anyone who does not pay him homage.  He has done so with politicians and journalists, of course, but also with friends or former friends, economists of his ilk, the millionaires of Davos, the Pope, several heads of state – he called Colombia's Petro "a terrorist murderer"; Brazil's Lula, "communist and corrupt"; Mexico's López, "an ignoramus" – and so on.

Some argue that his aggressive demeanour is a calculated strategy.  On one hand, it sets him apart from other politicians, whom he refers to as "the caste", and aligns him with the deep-seated anger of millions of Argentines after years of disappointment.  They say the strategy makes him a "terrorist" to his critics and a "hero" to his supporters.

On the other hand, so much mephitic noise distracts his compatriots and the rest of the world from the disastrous situation in which Argentina remains under his mandate: a recession of 30% or 40%, tens of thousands of layoffs, increasing hunger and misery, an unhinged administration, and an inflation of 8% a month, which he celebrates as low.  That the world talks about him for his outbursts – and that some even celebrate it – is his best trick so we don't see what he does when he is silent.  It would be a way of exercising political power based on the distraction provided by verbal violence, the disdain for those who are different, and the call for their ultimacy: something that is becoming increasingly common because it pays dividends because more voters and people are willing to follow those outbursts. 

I wish it were so.  If only he were a phoney who deceives and manipulates us with his outbursts.  The other option is more worrying: Mr Milei cannot act otherwise. As his stories of childhood and youth suggested and as his tales of dead dogs talking to God and promising him the presidency confirmed, this is his nature: a confused, angry man incapable of complying with specific basic rules of coexistence that any being should respect.  In short, he is a man who talks to himself and who does not manage to go from television buffoon to president because his personality was perfect for the former and unsustainable for the latter.

Please review the previous sentences to make sure our revisions are in line with your intended meaning.  Please note that the phrase "a bark queen who has taken half the world to the river" in the previous sentence is unclear.  We suggest reviewing and revising it to better convey your meaning.  Thank you.

Please note that Thailand is not an island.  We have altered the text to reflect this fact.  If you are speaking of a specific Thai island, please specify that.

Please provide the source of this quotation.  Thank you.

In the previous sentence, the intended meaning of the word "ultimacy" is unclear.  Please see if using an alternative could bring out your meaning more clearly.  Thank you.

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A power connection is seen on a solar panel situated inside the Qcells plant located in Dalton, Georgia. This photograph, captured by MIKE STEWART for the ASSOCIATED PRESS, showcases the innovative energy infrastructure in place at the facility.

The Solar Breakthrough That Could Help the U.S. Competing With China

Biggest investor in U.S. solar manufacturing will use new technology to cut costs

WSJ By Amrith Ramkumar, May 30, 2024

The biggest investor in U.S. solar manufacturing is embracing a new technology that reduces the cost of producing the panels, potentially bolstering efforts to build a supply chain outside of China for an industry crucial to the energy transition. 

The new technology comes from an Israeli startup that promises to simplify one of the most cumbersome steps in solar manufacturing and cut costs by reducing the amount of silver needed to capture sunlight on the panels.

The startup, called Lumet, is the brainchild of Benny Landa, who founded the company that developed the first digital printing press. That company was sold to HP for $830 million in the early 2000s. Lumet is working with Bank of America to raise hundreds of millions of dollars in the coming months, Landa said.

South Korea’s Hanwha Group says it will be the first company to use Lumet’s technology. Hanwha’s Qcells unit, one of the biggest solar-panel makers outside China, is building a multibillion-dollar solar supply chain in Georgia. The company expects the financial savings and performance gains to help it compete with low-cost products from the world’s biggest producer. 

A power connection on a solar panel inside the Qcells plant in Dalton, Ga. PHOTO: MIKE STEWART/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Qcells is expected to be one of the biggest potential beneficiaries from incentives in the 2022 U.S. climate law and a recently announced tariff increase on Chinese solar cells. The company said recently it is closing its only factory in China.

Chinese solar panels can be half the price of panels made elsewhere, industry analysts say, putting pressure on companies to cut costs. “We know we can’t depend on trade barriers or subsidies to make us competitive,” Danielle Merfeld, global chief technology officer at Qcells, said in an interview. “We have to keep innovating.”

Plummeting costs have made solar power one of the cheapest and fastest-growing sources of energy globally. Further advances can reduce the need for fossil fuels to meet rising demand for electricity and help limit climate change. 

Solar panels account for a small portion of overall project costs, but bigger contributors like labor, permitting and financing expenses are less flexible.

The main building blocks in solar panels are polysilicon wafers, which are treated with chemicals and silver to produce solar cells that can collect energy from the sun. Those cells are connected to get finished modules.

The step that uses silver and is being overhauled by Lumet is called metallization. It is one of the most expensive parts of cell assembly. The process uses screen printing techniques that rely on squeegeeing a silver paste through a mesh screen in a process similar to stenciling, then drying it out. The silver is coated on the cell in ultrathin shapes, known as fingers, for capturing sunlight.

Making the fingers as thin and efficient as possible has been critical to reducing solar costs because silver is expensive. Prices for the precious metal have recently risen to their highest level in more than a decade—above $32 a troy ounce—buoyed in part by strong solar demand.

Current printing techniques have reached their limit, Lumet says. The company coats the surface of plastic films with silver paste in precise patterns. That film then gets pressed onto preheated solar cells. The elevated temperatures make the pattern stick on the cell, so the film can then be peeled off. 

The process can produce thinner silver fingers that use less metal and are specially placed to increase the amount of light captured by each solar cell, Lumet says. Eliminating bulky screen printing and drying equipment and automating the process in a single machine generates cost savings and performance gains on each cell, it claims.

The company is talking to other potential customers and plans to establish factories in the U.S. and China to begin production next year, Landa said.

Qcells has been testing Lumet’s process for nine months and talking to the company for two years. Qcells declined to provide specifics on when it would deploy the technology at specific factories and the overall cost reductions it is targeting. 

Its $2.5 billion Georgia supply-chain effort is on track to be completed by the end of the year and will supply big customers including Microsoft. Expanded module assembly is up and running, with ingot and wafer production expected to start by September and cell production to follow by December, Merfeld said.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Emerging technologies, like large-scale battery storage, could be shining a brighter light of hope in our turbulent and shadowed world…

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“Today, the New York Times published an article titled "Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Electricity User."  These batteries deliver solar power after dark in California and help stabilize grids in other states.  The technology is expanding rapidly…

This article is available in these editions.

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All rights of the artwork are held by Germán & Co.

By Germán & Co.

Karlstad, Sweden, May 9, 2024

When, in 1800, Alessandro Volta invented the electric battery, thus marking a crucial turning point in the world of electricity. This invention revolutionized how people used electricity and paved the way for developing large-scale batteries.  The electric battery proved to be a game-changer in the world of technology and has transformed our lives. Thanks to this invention, we can now quickly and efficiently power our homes, vehicles, and smartphones.  Is almost sure that Volta never could imagines this uncreible develop.  Grazie mille Alessandro…

The advent of giant batteries, particularly those used in electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy storage, is a game-changer for the electric sector.  The demand for batteries in EVs is skyrocketing, with the demand for automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries expected to increase by approximately 65% to 550 GWh in 2022.

The increasing demand for batteries is leading to a greater need for critical materials, with lithium, cobalt, and nickel playing essential roles in these batteries.  The rise of batteries will result in the rapid phase-out of half of the world's demand for fossil fuels and will be instrumental in reducing emissions from transportation and power generation.

Additionally, declining battery costs are swiftly enhancing the competitiveness of electric vehicles and storage applications within the power sector. Battery storage is vital to the electricity grid for various reasons:  batteries are crucial for stability and reliability, serving as the backbone of power backup systems and contributing to grid stability. They have the capacity to store energy and act as a rapid-response load, aiding in the equilibrium of power supply and demand.  They can also provide backup power to households, businesses, and distribution grids during outages or to support electric reliability.

Undoubtedly, versatile batteries can be adjusted in both location and scale. This flexibility enables their deployment in areas of greatest need, and their capacity can be scaled up or down to meet the grid's requirements. Equally important is the support for renewable energy; storage plays a critical role in managing the variability of wind and solar resources, allowing them to serve as reliable baseload generation.  That said, it could also help to postpone investments in new transmission and distribution lines. And finally, this may signify the end for this amazing and astonishingly powerful technology.

“The future is bright for energy storage,” said Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES Corporation, one of the world’s largest power companies. “If you want more renewables on the grid, you need more batteries. It’s not going to work otherwise.” 

The information is from The New York Times on May 7th, 2024.

In this regard, Fluence Energy, a joint venture between Siemens and AES Corporation, is making a significant impact on the electric industry within this sector.  The company has achieved milestones by deploying and contracting over 20 GWh of storage systems globally, setting a new standard in battery-based energy storage installations and expansion.  Indeed, Fluence Energy is recognized as a leader in this field.  Moreover, the company supports renewable energy by providing storage products, services, and optimization software that aid in the transition from traditional power sources to renewable alternatives on a global scale.  Furthermore, Fluence Energy has collaborated with clients to implement some of the most extensive and intricate energy storage systems worldwide.  For example, they were chosen by AGL Energy Limited to supply a 500 MW/1,000 MWh energy storage system for the Liddell Battery Project in New South Wales.  The company is also known for its innovative approach to pioneering new energy storage applications that influence power network operations and address the challenges of transitioning to sustainable energy sources.

Fluence Energy's contributions are undoubtedly pivotal in the electric industry as they provide scalable energy storage solutions, support the transition to renewable energy sources, and drive innovation in power network operations.  This transformation leads to more efficient and environmentally friendly energy consumption for consumers.  The rise of the electric vehicle (EV) market, propelled by advancements in battery technology, offers consumers more sustainable transportation choices.  The company is projected to increase its energy storage capacity by over 14 GW by 2030. 

In conclusion, consumers can certainly store renewable energy using home battery systems, such as those powered by solar or wind, within the power sector. This reduces dependence on the grid and enables the use of clean energy even during times when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow.

Finally, Alessandro Volta's creation of the electric battery to the ongoing advancements in large-scale energy storage, we are witnessing a significant and influential transformation in the electrical sector. This evolution is revolutionizing how energy is produced and storage, fundamentally changing the nature of consumer interaction in the electricity market. Undoubtedly, these developments are remarkable.. Ancora una volta Alessandro, grazie mille...

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“To the Jewish community, I want you to know: I see your fear, your hurt, your pain,”  President Joe Biden said. (NYT)

Notes from the editors:

Notes from the editors:

"On the day Hamas sowed the seeds of discord in a selfish and wretched manner, with unyielding persistence…"

Initially, the blog steered clear of this subject due to its significant emotional impact and the potential to elicit irrational reactions.  Nevertheless, on January 28, a thorough examination of the matter was released, titled: "The Intention to Trigger a Worldwide Conflict Should Be Readily Apparent..."  Ultimately, after considering the historical context, we can distill the crux of the matter to a single idea: "The profound impact of surprise attacks throughout history includes the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey; Hamas comprehended the widespread and lasting repercussions of the attack, which negatively affected individuals residing in the West Bank and Gaza.  Furthermore, Hamas' actions had no impact except for galvanizing ultra-fundamentalist Arab groups to launch a united campaign against Israel.  This was the sole reason behind the appalling assault on civilians on October 7, which has led to further dire consequences for the Palestinian population.  However, history did not conclude here.

The ultra-extremist Arab group was clandestinely planning to instigate an unprecedented regional or global conflict, capitalizing on the ultra-conservative Israeli government's internal power struggles.  Such surprise attacks have long been recognized as a military strategy that can create disorder, devastation, and success throughout history.  These unexpected assaults can prompt opponents to quickly review and revise their strategies, resulting in swift and resounding successes for the attackers and shaping the future course of the conflict.

Considering this historical perspective, we must acknowledge the uncertainties surrounding its applicability in the current situation.  While some argue that principles from past conflicts may not directly align with our evolving geopolitical landscape, it is undeniable that the enduring significance of surprise and strategic maneuvering persists.  Just as ancient commanders relied on catching their opponents off guard, we are similarly compelled, in our competitive environment, to innovate and devise novel approaches to outmaneuver our adversaries.

Some examples highlight the profound impact of surprise attacks throughout history.  For example, the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey vividly demonstrates the significance of strategic deception in penetrating Troy's defenses.  Similarly, the stunning victory achieved by Hannibal, leader of Carthage, over a more formidable Roman army in the Battle of Cannae in 206 BC shocked the ancient world and underscored the potency of surprise tactics.  Moving forward in history, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 marked a pivotal turning point in World War II, showcasing the capacity of surprise assaults to reshape the course of conflict.

Post-World War II, surprise attacks continued to shape global events, with China's unexpected involvement in the Korean War of 1950 catching United Nations forces off guard and prompting a reorganization of the Korean Peninsula.  Furthermore, Israel's utilization of surprise tactics during the Six-Day War of 1967 and the October War of 1973 underscored the enduring impact of strategic cunning in the face of threats from neighboring countries.

The tragic assault on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11, 2001, and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic are stark reminders of the far-reaching consequences of unforeseen events, prompting societal shifts and unveiling deep-seated inequalities across the globe.

The ongoing drama instigated by Hamas was addressed yesterday by President Joseph Biden, who delivered a comprehensive statement outlining the steps being taken to de-escalate the situation, not only the domestic turbulence provoked by protests in favor of Palestinians in the university cluster but also to work towards lasting peace in the region.  Standing before six candles symbolizing the six million Jews who perished in the Holocaust, he issued a powerful condemnation of antisemitism.  His remarks were delivered seven months to the day after the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7.  Approximately 1,200 individuals were killed at the border between Israel and Gaza, and over 200 were taken hostage, marking the most lethal day for the Jewish community since the Holocaust.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering."

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

In the United States, renewable energy sources are poised for rapid growth in the field of electricity generation, with states, communities, and organizations pledging to reduce their carbon footprints.  The recent merger between Power and AES's clean energy development business in the US is a testament to our commitment to forging a more sustainable energy landscape.  This union not only solidifies our dedication to our clients' goals but also brings a host of benefits.  It significantly bolsters our capacity to aid customers in their energy transition by harnessing the expertise and leadership of AES and sPower in the renewable energy sector.  We remain resolute in our mission to become a leading platform for renewable energy growth in the US. 

The combined entity will manage 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of operating assets, a contracted backlog of 2.6 GW, and a portfolio of 12 GW in development projects.  Moving beyond these statistics, we strive to provide value to our customers through the expertise, skills, and dedication of our team of approximately 500 professionals, who are dedicated to solving our clients' most complex energy challenges. 

We are actively seeking out and welcoming qualified individuals who possess the necessary skills and who share our vision of transitioning to a 100% carbon-free energy grid.  Our commitment to this vision is unwavering, and we are eager to have like-minded individuals join us on this journey. 

In our pursuit of cleaner energy, we recognise the myriad approaches customers can employ to achieve 100% renewable energy consumption.  Through our partnership with sPower, we are able to offer a wider array of innovative solutions.  These solutions, which are powered by cutting-edge technologies, are designed to assist customers in their energy transitions and propel them towards a carbon-neutral future.  This commitment to innovation and sustainability sets us apart in the industry and makes us an ideal partner for those who are seeking to have a positive impact on the environment.  

Our partnership with Microsoft for a 300 MW solar energy project highlights our commitment to helping clients achieve their sustainability goals.  The Pleinmont Solar I and II projects, part of the Spotsylvania Solar Energy Center in Virginia, are expected to generate around 715,000 MWh of solar energy annually, offsetting over 500,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions. 

An illustrative example is our partnership with the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC), where AES introduced a groundbreaking solar + storage solution to facilitate solar energy generation beyond daylight hours.  This innovative approach gained recognition and established a new standard for providing large-scale renewable energy, supporting Hawaii's goal to be fully powered by renewables by 2045. 

We are prepared and eager to assist additional clients, such as Microsoft and KIUC, with eco-friendly and intelligent energy solutions that perfectly align with their business goals and environmental pledges.

 "Our commitment to providing value and expertise remains unwavering," stated Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES Corporation.

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Image provided by Fluence.

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Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity

They’re delivering solar power after dark in California and helping to stabilize grids in other states. And the technology is expanding rapidly.

The New York Times article by Brad Plumer and Nadja Popovich, dated May 7, 2024. 

California draws more electricity from the sun than any other state. It also has a timing problem: Solar power is plentiful during the day but disappears by evening, just as people get home from work and electricity demand spikes. To fill the gap, power companies typically burn more fossil fuels like natural gas.

That’s now changing. Since 2020, California has installed more giant batteries than anywhere in the world apart from China. They can soak up excess solar power during the day and store it for use when it gets dark.

Those batteries play a pivotal role in California’s electric grid, partially replacing fossil fuels in the evening. Between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. on April 30, for example, batteries supplied more than one-fifth of California’s electricity and, for a few minutes, pumped out 7,046 megawatts of electricity, akin to the output from seven large nuclear reactors.

Across the country, power companies are increasingly using giant batteries the size of shipping containers to address renewable energy’s biggest weakness: the fact that the wind and sun aren’t always available.

“What’s happening in California is a glimpse of what could happen to other grids in the future,” said Helen Kou, head of U.S. power analysis at BloombergNEF, a research firm. “Batteries are quickly moving from these niche applications to shifting large amounts of renewable energy toward peak demand periods.”

Over the past three years, battery storage capacity on the nation’s grids has grown tenfold, to 16,000 megawatts. This year, it is expected to nearly double again, with the biggest growth in Texas, California and Arizona.

Most grid batteries use lithium-ion technology, similar to batteries in smartphones or electric cars. As the electric vehicle industry has expanded over the past decade, battery costs have fallen by 80 percent, making them competitive for large-scale power storage. Federal subsidies have also spurred growth.

As batteries have proliferated, power companies are using them in novel ways, such as handling big swings in electricity generation from solar and wind farms, reducing congestion on transmission lines and helping to prevent blackouts during scorching heat waves.

In California, which has set ambitious goals for fighting climate change, policymakers hope grid batteries can help the state get 100 percent of its electricity from carbon-free sources by 2045. While the state remains heavily dependent on natural gas, a significant contributor to global warming, batteries are starting to eat into the market for fossil fuels. State regulators plan to nearly triple battery capacity by 2035.

“The future is bright for energy storage,” said Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES Corporation, one of the world’s largest power companies. “If you want more renewables on the grid, you need more batteries. It’s not going to work otherwise.”

When power companies first began connecting batteries to the grid in the 2010s, they mainly used them to smooth out small disruptions in the flow of electricity, say, if a power plant unexpectedly tripped offline. Many battery operators still earn most of their revenue by providing these “ancillary services.”

But power companies also use batteries to engage in a type of trading: charging up when electricity is plentiful and cheap and then selling power to the grid when electricity supplies are tighter and more expensive.

In California power prices often crash around midday, when the state produces more solar power than it needs, especially in the spring when air-conditioning use is low. Prices then soar in the evening when solar disappears and grid operators have to increase output from gas plants or hydroelectric dams to compensate.

California now has 10,000 megawatts of battery power capacity on the grid, enough to power 10 million homes for a few hours. Those batteries are “able to very effectively manage that evening ramp where solar is going down and customer demand is increasing,” said John Phipps, executive director of grid operations for the California Independent System Operator, which oversees the state’s grid.

Batteries can also help California’s grid handle stresses from heat waves and wildfires, Mr. Phipps said. “It made some differences last summer,” he said. “We were able to meet high load days and wildfire days when we might lose some power lines.”

In Texas, batteries are still largely used to provide ancillary services, stabilizing the grid against unexpected disruptions. Texas is also more reliant than California on wind energy, which fluctuates in less predictable patterns.

But Texas is quickly catching up to California in solar power, and batteries increasingly help with evening peaks. On April 28, the sun was setting just as wind power was unexpectedly low and many coal and gas plants were offline for repairs. Batteries jumped in, supplying 4 percent of Texas’ electricity at one point, enough to power a million homes. Last summer, batteries helped avert evening blackouts by providing additional power during record heat.

The two states built their battery fleets in distinct ways. In California, regulatory mandates were a key impetus: In 2019, officials worried that too many older gas plants were closing, risking blackouts, and ordered utilities to quickly install thousands of megawatts of storage.

In Texas, market forces dominate. The state’s deregulated electricity system allows prices to fluctuate sharply, rising as high as $5,000 per megawatt-hour during acute shortages. That makes it lucrative for battery developers to take advantage of spikes, such as in locations where power lines periodically get clogged.

“Anywhere we think the market is going to get tight, you can put batteries in and even things out,” said Stephanie Smith, chief operating officer of Eolian, a battery developer. “Then, we’re making bets all day about when to charge and discharge.”

One battery, for instance, sits near Fort Worth, absorbing excess wind power from West Texas during the nighttime, when no one needs it, and feeding it into the grid when demand surges.

Other states are following. In Arizona and Georgia, utilities plan to install thousands of megawatts of battery capacity to help manage rising demand from data centers and factories. It helps that batteries can be deployed quickly, said Aaron Mitchell, vice president of planning and pricing at Georgia Power.

The industry still faces obstacles, however. Lithium-ion batteries are flammable, and while operators have taken steps to reduce fire risk, some communities oppose projects in their backyards. Most batteries still come from China, making them vulnerable to trade disputes. In Texas, a state fund to subsidize gas plants could undercut the battery boom. In other states, complex regulations sometimes prevent utilities from adding energy storage.

“Because these storage resources are so new, the rules are still catching up,” said Natalie McIntire, who works on grid issues for the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.

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Can Grid Batteries Help Fight Climate Change?

Grid batteries could be a useful tool to slash planet-warming emissions, experts say, though they still need further advances in terms of costs, technologies and how they are used.

In Texas, many batteries today are actually increasing carbon-dioxide emissions, according to one analysis. That’s because operators focus on maximizing revenue and sometimes charge with coal or gas power.

“These batteries have an immense capability to abate carbon, but they need the right incentives to do so,” said Emma Konet, co-founder of Tierra Climate, a startup working to help batteries earn money for reducing emissions.

In California, by contrast, batteries appear to be cutting emissions from fossil fuels. The state’s gas use in April fell to a seven-year low. “We have reached the conclusion that batteries are displacing natural gas when solar generation is ramping up and down each day,” said Max Kanter, chief executive of Grid Status, an electricity data tracking firm.

Yet California still gets roughly 40 percent of its electricity from natural gas, and it could be difficult for current battery technology to replace all of that. One analysis from BloombergNEF found that solar and batteries can be a cost-effective alternative to smaller gas “peaker” plants that only switch on when demand spikes. But batteries remain too costly to replace many of the larger gas-burning plants that provide steadier power day and night.

“You don’t want to necessarily build a system where you’ve got batteries to suck up every last megawatt-hour, because that’s a pretty expensive system,” said Meredith Fowlie, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

Today’s lithium-ion batteries typically only deliver power for two to four hours before needing to recharge. If costs keep falling, battery companies might be able to extend that to eight or ten hours (it’s a matter of adding more battery packs) but it may not be economical to go far beyond that, said Nate Blair, an energy storage expert at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

That means additional long-duration storage technologies could be needed. If California wants to rely largely on renewable energy, it will have to handle weeklong periods where there’s no wind and little sun. Another challenge: There’s far more solar power available in summer than in winter, and no battery today can store electricity for months to manage those seasonal disparities.

Some companies are exploring solutions. In Sacramento, a start-up called ESS is building “flow” batteries that store energy in liquid electrolytes and can last 12 hours or longer. Another start-up, Form Energy, is building a 100-hour iron-air battery. These ideas will have to compete against alternatives like nuclear power, advanced geothermal or even using green hydrogen to store electricity.

California’s regulators say they may need five times as much storage capacity by midcentury, even if it’s unclear which technologies will prevail.

“We’re just at the beginning of this,” said Mr. Phipps of the California Independent System Operator.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

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Iran's Conflict with Israel…A Dangerous Spiral of Violence in the Middle East

The danger of all-out war in the Middle East is greater than ever. How did Israel and Iran get into this mess? And can they still find a way out? (Der Spiegel-Today)

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A Planetary Crisis Awaits the Next President

New York Times article by Stephen Markley, Today.

“I fully admit, Mr. Biden was not my first, nor even my seventh, choice in the 2020 Democratic primary. Yet when it came to the immense challenge of confronting this crisis, I am forever grateful that he proved me wrong, delivering a game-changing victory with the narrowest of congressional margins. Even as much of the rest of Mr. Biden’s ambitious policy agenda got hacked away in Congress, one thing remained: re-industrialization through clean energy investment.

This led to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate legislation the country has ever seen and a more important achievement than the Paris climate accord. In just two years, that bill has galvanized clean energy investment in the United States and set a pace for the rest of the world to compete in the growing clean energy economy. These investments are expected to create more than nine million jobs over the next decade. That growth in clean energy is not only breaking records by the year but also by the quarter, with the end of 2023 seeing a 40 percent increase in investments in clean energy and transportation over the last quarter of 2022….

Read the full articles in this edition.

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“The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Unveiled… "Th3 Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning: 'The Unpredictable Consequences of Fundamental Political Matters'"

In the realm of politics, there exist certain matters so sensitive, so inherently fragile, that their mere existence can send shockwaves through the social and political fabric of a nation. These issues, oftentimes underpinned by deep-rooted historical, cultural, or ideological tensions, have the potential to disrupt the delicate balance that holds societies together.

https://energycentral.com/c/og/exclusive-%E2%80%9C-dark-day-europes-energy-crisis-unveiled%E2%80%A6

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Wishing you all the very best, and above all, abundant health at the end of this Sabbath.

It's becoming evident that European leaders are actively working on strategies to address the gas supply challenges plaguing the continent.  Why?  The transition to a new renewable energy source has caused bureaucratic challenges, including extended permit procedures, technical issues with the grid, and opposition from the environmental movement.  Believe it or not, The Sámi in Swedish Lapland have protested against the construction of wind farms, arguing that the noise from the generators' blades has a psychological impact on the reindeer population in that serene and picturesque region.

The concept of the "unforeseeable consequences of fundamental political issues" is frequently overlooked, as evidenced by the detonation of the Nord Stream pipeline in the North Sea.  Despite Washington's advice against detonating this strategic facility, the decision was not overturned.  The explosion on 22 September 2022, occurred in a matter of seconds, causing an estimated 7.5 billion euros in damage and, worse, cutting off the only gas supply to the continent.  This major geopolitical incident is distinct from the recent bombing at the Iranian embassy in Damascus by Israeli forces.

Washington's counsel to avoid detonating this strategic energy facility was disregarded. In the blink of an eye, an explosion occurred, resulting in an estimated 7.5 billion euros in damage and, more significantly, the cessation of the continent's sole gas supply. It is possible to posit that the pipe was devoid of gas due to the Kremlin's supply restriction. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the world and life are not static entities. Change is an ever-present aspect of our existence that we must embrace and adapt to. However, it is difficult to envision President Vladimir Putin remaining indefinitely in the expansive realm of Eurasia.  The most recent bellicose geopolitical event, which was arguably both reckless and mean, involved the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, causing widespread concern and condemnation from the international community. It comes as no surprise that Washington was not informed about this particular incident, as doing so could have potentially hindered the operation's progress.

Finally, the primary concern is not solely the "Talion" law, which stands between opposing forces, but rather Putin's mindset. Mr. Henry Kissinger articulated this perspective during a profound interview with Portofalio magazine, conducted at the renowned French restaurant Jubilee in downtown Manhattan, New York, on July 27, 2018. Kissinger observed that although Putin does not mirror historical figures such as Hitler, he does exhibit traits akin to characters from Dostoevsky's esteemed novels. This insight highlights the extensive impact of Putin's choices, resulting in what Kissinger describes as "imperial contamination." The effects of this are evident in current disputes like the one between Venezuela and Guyana, which exemplify the enduring human inclination to place power above everything in the quest for dominance. 

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AES Dominicana has significantly enhanced the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system through the utilization of diverse fuels and renewable energy sources.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

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 Iranian drones have been utilized by Russia to target Ukraine. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.

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The danger of all-out war in the Middle East is greater than ever. How did Israel and Iran get into this mess? And can they still find a way out?

"Der Spiegel," authored by Susanne Koelbl, Christoph Reuter, Thore Schröder, and Bernhard Zand, dated April 19, 2024.

The uranium enrichment plant in Natanz is located halfway between the cities of Isfahan and Kashan. The only things visible from the highway are warehouses and workshops. Most of the plant is buried in tunnels, well over 60 meters below the surface – difficult to destroy even with the most powerful American bunker-busting bombs, it is said.

It is almost impossible to see what is happening underground here from the outside. What is known is that this is the site where Iran is further developing its nuclear program, which the international community had hoped to end using diplomatic means – and which Israel and many of Iran's Arab neighbors feel threatened by.

This is truer than ever following Iran's attack on Israel in the night of April 14, when the regime in Tehran launched a salvo of more than 300 drones, rockets and ballistic missiles in the country's direction.

Outside of Israeli security circles, no one knows exactly what possible targets in Iran the military planners are currently discussing in the event that war with Iran does indeed break out one day. But it is likely that, in addition to military bases, airports and oil facilities, the locations of the nuclear program will also be considered.

Around 170 kilometers north of Natanz, between Tehran and Qom, the city that is the world's largest center of Shiite scholarship, is the Fordo nuclear facility, also hidden underground. Some 150 kilometers further to the west, near the industrial city of Arak, there is another nuclear facility with a research reactor and a heavy water reactor.

An Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program is the maximum variant of retaliation that is currently conceivable. It would be a bold move, feasible, if at all, only with the help of the United Sates – and with incalculable consequences for the rest of the world.

The danger of a major war in the Middle East is currently greater than ever. The risk remains just as high now that Israel apparently responded with a limited strike early on Friday morning.

It still isn't entirely clear what happened. According to Iranian reports, there were several explosions near the city of Isfahan in central Iran. Reports from the U.S. media, which cite unnamed Israeli and Iranian sources, indicated that it could have been an attack involving drones, possibly near an air force base. Iran initially played the incident down. It also remained unclear whether Israel would follow up with further strikes – or whether Iran would react once again.

The New York Times reported that four options had been discussed in Israel in the preceding days: a strike against an Iranian facility outside Iran, such as a Revolutionary Guard base in Syria; an attack on a "symbolic target" inside Iran; a cyberattack on the country's infrastructure – and an intensification of acts of sabotage or targeted killings inside Iran, of the type Israel's foreign intelligence service has allegedly been carrying out for years.

Reports coming out of Isfahan point to the second option. And it does seem fitting given that in military retaliation operations, states are usually keen to "thematically link" the counterstrike, as Fabian Hinz of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) puts it. To strike a specific unit or base that they believe to be responsible for the original attack, for example. That concept is at least one common denominator shared by countries as different and hostile as Israel and Iran.

Ever since the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7 and the war in Gaza, there has been an increased possibility of a broader war pitting Israel, the U.S. and their allies against Iran and its proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. But despite the fact that Iran has co-financed the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, or that Israel is involved in battles with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah or that Houthi militias allied with Iran are launching drones from Yemen towards Israel, a larger conflagration has yet to be sparked.

It would be a war that could set the entire region between the Levant and the Hindukush on fire. "A war with Iran could destroy emirates such as Abu Dhabi or Dubai within 24 hours," the American Iran expert Vali Nasr said in an interview with DER SPIEGEL. Such a war could jeopardize global oil supplies, disrupt international trade and strengthen Russia and China.

It is a war that few people want. But wars don't always arise because someone decides to start them, sometimes they are the result of events that develop a momentum that no one can escape. Sometimes it is overreactions or miscalculations that set off a spiral of escalation.

What is the history of the current crisis?

On the night of April 14, an event occurred that had the potential to start a major war: It was Iran's first direct military attack on Israel. Iran's regime launched a massive airstrike with more than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. The Shahed drones flew west for hours. It didn't take long to detect them, but it was nonetheless an attempt to demonstrate military power.

None of the drones and very few missiles reached their targets. Most had been shot down by Israel, the U.S. or their allies before they reached Israeli airspace, even by neighboring Arab country Jordan. Israel's missile defense took care of most of the rest. Considering the scale of the attack, the civilian and military damage was minor. The only victim known by name: a seven-year-old Bedouin girl in the Negev desert who was injured.

The geopolitical consequences, however, are enormous. For the first time in the decades-long shadow war between the two hostile countries, both have now attacked the other from their own territory. The former Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Ahmad Dastmalchian spoke of a "paradigm shift" in Iran's "defense policy." "Now, at the latest, Iran has passed the point of no return," said Michael Roth, the chair of the Foreign Policy Committee in the Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament.

But the Iranian attack wasn't the first cross-border assault in this conflict. An Iranian consulate and residence building in Syria's capital city Damascus was destroyed in an April 1 airstrike, presumably by Israel. Sixteen people, including Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and other high-ranking officers and civilians were killed. Attacks on diplomatic missions are considered to be taboo by the international community, but for Iran, it was a public humiliation. As usual, Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack, but also made no effort to deny it.

That's how the logic of strike and counterstrike began. After Iran's attack last weekend, Israeli Army Spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Tuesday: "We cannot stand still from this kind of aggression." Iran will not "get off scot-free."

In the event the Israelis struck, the regime in Iran said it would strike back. And that this retaliation would be "much more serious" than the attack on April 13, an adviser to Iranian President Ebrahim Rasi said. If Israel "makes another mistake," said Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, the country "will not have 12 days, a day or hours. The next strike will take place within seconds and has already been approved."

And even if the Israeli reaction now appears to have been rather mild and Iran has so far shown no signs of a renewed counter-reaction: The conflict between Israel and Iran is now being played out openly. The shadow war is no longer in the shadows. And the danger remains great that the conflict will escalate further – if not now, then in the coming weeks, months or years.

Israel's path to this escalation is closely linked to one name: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rise of the political right.

But how did Iran, the major Shiite power in the Middle East, become Israel's archenemy? Is there a way to slow down this extreme confrontation, which threatens to erupt into an open, and possibly one day nuclear, war? The question lingering over everything is this: How can Iran still be prevented from building a nuclear bomb?

At what point could Iran have a nuclear bomb?

When asked whether Iran was already capable of building a bomb, the former head of the Iranian nuclear authority, Ali Akbar Salehi, recently replied in a television interview: "Imagine what a car needs; it needs a chassis, an engine, a steering wheel, a gearbox. You're asking if we've made the gearbox, I say yes. Have we made the engine? Yes."

The physicist and weapons expert David Albright, a former inspector with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), puts it more precisely. According to his estimate, Iran needs around six months to produce what is called a "crude" bomb that could be carried on a ballistic missile. However, this would require a decision from Revolutionary Leader Khamenei to lift the ban he imposed in 2003 on the production of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. A growing number of voices are now urging Khamenei to do precisely that. But so far, according to Albright, this decision apparently has not yet been made.

For a long time, it appeared that Iran could be dissuaded from building a bomb through diplomatic means: In 2015, the regime, which was ruled by a reform-oriented president at the time, concluded an agreement with the backing of the U.S., the European Union, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany. The so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran deal, called for Tehran to forfeit 97 percent of its low-enriched uranium. The stockpile of enriched uranium was to be exported almost entirely to Russia.

All of this took place in a different, more hopeful world: The West, Russia and China were still working together back then. In the meantime, the geopolitical situation has changed considerably. China and Russia are now firmly on Iran's side against the American-led world order. At a recent crisis meeting on Iran involving the U.S. and other countries, China and Russia were not even present.

Hardliners on all sides always wanted to torpedo the Iran deal: in Israel, the forces around Benjamin Netanyahu, the conservatives in Iran – and right-wing Republicans in the U.S. The main argument against the deal was that it didn't include Iran's missile program or its aggressive proxy forces in the Middle East. Proponents of the deal believed that they would be able to negotiate these issues in the next steps. But in 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal. His successor Joe Biden has tried to revive it, but those efforts have so far been in vain.

The International Atomic Energy Agency still has access to Iran's nuclear facilities, but entry has been severely restricted since the termination of the deal. "In the current chaos in the Middle East, they could try to use an excuse to deny the inspectors access to the enrichment facilities for a few days, as they did on the day of the drone attack on Israel," says former inspector Albright. It's not very difficult to increase the enrichment from 60 to 90 percent, meaning the amount needed for producing weapons-grade material.

Albright believes it is possible that Khamenei will reverse his decision "if the survival of the nation is at stake. They are so close that this alone could make it tempting to build the bomb. Still, the Iranians will have to weigh up what that means" – a likely war with Israel and possibly also with the U.S.

Conversely, Israel and the U.S. would also have to ask themselves what Iran's renewed response might look like. In any case, Israel has only limited possibilities for destroying Iran's nuclear program. "I think it is more likely that Israel will give a response that strengthens its deterrent but does not challenge Iran to a major attack."

Why were protests by women unable to topple the regime?

In the West, we have recently heard almost exclusively about protests in Iran: about the women in Tehran and other cities who threw off their headscarves a year and a half ago, about demonstrations in Kurdistan and Baluchistan, where participants were repeatedly killed with targeted shots.

The protests didn’t topple the regime, but they did demonstrate how great is the chasm between large segments of the population and the country’s rulers. Most Iranians don’t think much of the regime, and many don’t consider themselves to be in a conflict with Israel. At the same time, however, a faction of ultra-hardliners has developed in recent years – in parliament, among the clerics and among commanders of the Revolutionary Guards – called Jebhe-ye Paydari, or the Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution. And for them, the leadership of the aging Khamenei is too lax.

Instead of compromise, this group is demanding toughness, born out of a messianic tradition. The Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution, the Economist recently wrote, "are to Iran what the religious hard right are to Israel."

Step by step, these extremists are pushing the pragmatists out of the country’s circles of power. They are even enforcing the hated hijab requirement for women once again: On the day of the Iranian air attacks on Israel, the regime once again sent the morality police into the streets. And these hardliners are upping the pressure to transform the anti-Israeli and anti-Western propaganda into a real military conflict. Faced with the decision between losing face or getting Iran involved in a large war in the Middle East, they tend to favor the latter.

Where did the animosity between Iran and Israel come from?

The acrimony between the two countries is not rooted in a long, bellicose history. It began as a propaganda project of the Iranian Revolution, which put an end to the country’s monarchy in 1978-79.

Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran became one of the first countries to recognize Israel in 1948. The secret services of the two countries cooperated, and both states were united by their distance to their Arab neighbors. The young country of Israel helped Iran develop its agricultural sector and bought oil from the country.

Historian David Menashri, 79, was born as the son of Jewish parents in Tehran before emigrating with his parents to Israel, but he also spent several years in Iran in the 1970s. At that time, he says, the two countries had a relationship "like a marriage without a license" – a rapport that was shaped by religion from the very beginning. On the one hand, both countries considered themselves to be "chosen by God" by virtue of their long histories, says Menashri. But on the other, anti-Semitism had a long history in Iran.

There was, for example, a rule according to which Iranian Jews were not allowed to leave their homes when it was raining, because they were considered najis, ritually unclean, and water dripping off of them would allegedly impurify the streets. The shah, says Menashri, knew that he couldn’t be particularly open about his ties with the Israelis. The Israeli Embassy in Tehran did not fly the country’s flag and while the airline El Al had daily flights to the Iranian capital, those flights were not publicly displayed at Mehrabad Airport.

It was revolutionary leader Ruhollah Khomeini who declared Israel to be "Little Satan." The designation "Great Satan” was reserved for the U.S., which had provided the shah with military support for years. Kohmeini accused Israel of being an "enemy of Islam" and declared an annual Al-Quds Day, calling for the liberation of Jerusalem – though during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Khomeini had no compunctions about importing arms from Israel through secret channels. Israel’s leadership likewise kept open the possibility of resuming closer cooperation with Iran at some point in the future. For Khomeini, the Jewish state was a useful tool for whipping up the fervor of his followers. "If Israel hadn’t existed," says David Menashri, "his regime would have had to invent it."

Indeed, one reason Iranian propaganda later targeted Israel and the U.S. was because it so accurately reflected the mood on the streets of Arab countries, with which Iran was at odds and whose leaders were generally allied with the U.S.

Who actually rules Iran?

The Iranian regime is stable primarily due to its unique construction. Standing over everything is the country’s religious leader, Ali Khamenei.

In 1979, revolutionary leader Khomeini established the Pasdaran, the Revolutionary Guards, as a protective force against the country’s regular army, who Khomeini suspected of being disloyal.

Today, the Pasdaran, with almost 350,000 men, is the most powerful military force in Iran and has its own ground, air and naval forces in addition to an arsenal of missiles. The country’s nuclear program is also part of its portfolio as is the large Basij militia, which keeps close tabs on schools, universities, factories and official agencies to ensure that no opposition is allowed to develop.

The Revolutionary Guards are not under the control of the country’s elected president or the parliament, instead answering only to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who took charge when Khomeini died in 1989. He holds vastly more power than President Ebrahim Raisi, though the president is also considered to be a Khamenei ally.

The Pasdaran has become the gravitational center of the Iranian state. In addition to its military strength, it also has gigantic holdings through which it dominates every sector of the Iranian economy, including banks, construction companies, supermarket chains, oil refineries, airports, luxury hotels, eye clinics and newspapers.

But as sprawling as its economic empire is, the Pasadaran keeps its influence largely under wraps. Estimates as to the group’s contribution to Iran’s gross social product vary between one-third and two-thirds. General strikes of the kind that toppled the monarchy in 1978-79 become difficult when the regime also controls a majority of the economy.

Why is Iran spreading its influence across the Middle East?

From the very beginning, Khomeini’s Islamic Republic was anything but a peaceful state. But instead of seeing today’s archrival Israel as its biggest enemy, the focus was more on countries like Iraq, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, all of which the regime saw as rivals for the political, religious and economic dominance of the Middle East. To secure Iran’s influence in the region, the foreign, elite branch of the Pasdaran, the Al-Quds Brigades, was founded in 1988, named for the Arabic word for Jerusalem.

In the late 1990s, a man named Qassem Soleimani – a largely unknown officer at the time – took over control of the Al-Quds force. Marked by the horrors of the Iran-Iraq conflict, Soleimani set about building something new – a hybrid army made up of other nationalities but which would remain under his control. Soleimani was from the mountains of southern Iran, was fluent in the unwritten rules of the tribes, had experience as a wartime commander, exuded charisma and spoke perfect Arabic.

Over the course of several years, he discreetly built up a shadow army over which the Iranians had full control, but which didn’t involve Iranians themselves fighting and dying. His model foresaw providing financial and military support to fellow Shiites in other countries, religiously indoctrinating them and then deploying them as bridgeheads in the Arab world. The blueprint was the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Israel marched into the country in 1982 in order to drive out the leadership of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). In spring 2000, the Israelis withdrew, and Hezbollah posed as the country’s liberators.

Three years later, in 2003, a golden opportunity arose for Iran to expand its power: The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the country’s dictator. The majority of Iraqis are Shiites, and it didn’t take Iran long to fill the power vacuum. A growing number of militias were trained by Soleimani’s men.

The 2011 uprising in Syria as part of the Arab Spring provided the next opportunity. The Assad-family dictatorship in Damascus was Iran’s only Arab ally – and it couldn’t be allowed to fall. Indeed, Syria became the ultimate proving grounds for Soleimani’s creation. As of 2014, Iraqis began fighting at division strength in the region surrounding the Syrian capital of Aleppo, led by Hezbollah officers from Lebanon. Shiites from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen served as cannon fodder for the front lines. And Iran was pulling the strings.

General David Petraeus, who led the U.S. forces in Iraq in 2008, received what he says was a secret message at the time: "General Petraeus, you should know that I, Qassem Suleimani, control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan." It wasn’t bragging, it was just the truth.

Because Soleimani’s troops didn’t just battle it out with local forces, but increasingly with U.S. units as well, then-U.S. President Donald Trump made a far-reaching decision in January 2020: He had General Soleimani killed at the Baghdad airport using Hellfire missiles. Iran still hasn’t completely recovered from the loss, with Soleimani’s successor lacking his stature. But many of the militias once controlled by Soleimani still exist – and some, such as the Houthis in Yemen, have even grown stronger. "Their proximity to Iran gives them power over their competitors," says Middle East expert Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute in Washington. "Then: the weapon systems, suicide drones, missiles, plus the training effects. It's the complete package. It is truly a network, fascinating. Each of them operates in their own environment. They are part and parcel of a regional network."

Iran reacted to the assassination of Soleimani by firing missiles at U.S. military bases. But the response was far more modest than the attack unleashed on Israel following the killing of its generals in Damascus.

Why didn’t Iran’s allies launch attacks after October 7?

Many Western observers were surprised that Tehran and Hezbollah clearly held back following the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In truth, however, such reserve has not been uncommon in recent decades. Despite all the propaganda against the "Zionist entity," Soleimani’s successor in recent years has reportedly argued internally against provocations of Israel. Tehran may support Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, all of which are enemies of Israel, but control over Arab countries has always been more important to Tehran.

According to U.S. intelligence, Hamas launched the October 7 attack on its own and hoped that Hezbollah and Iran would join the war they started.

But that was never their intention, and now – after years of bellicose anti-Israeli and anti-Western propaganda – the Iranians found themselves facing a dilemma. That has been readily apparent by Hezbollah’s attempts since October 7 to lead a limited war across the Israeli border.

Revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei, recalls Israeli Iran expert Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a think tank in Tel Aviv, once said that Iran occasionally had to operate "like a boxer" and take punches if it served to achieve larger strategic aims.

What next?

The recent escalation between Iran and Israel – one which appears to have brought the Middle East closer than ever to a large conflict – was apparently the product of a far-reaching misjudgment three weeks ago. Israel’s government and security services came to the conclusion ahead of their April 1 airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that the leadership in Tehran would react to this strike with a relatively moderate response – as had been the case following a series of similar attacks in recent months.

Even though the Israelis had previously killed more than a dozen pro-Iran militia leaders in Syria and Lebanon, the attack on the consulate in Damascus "crossed a red line,” says Zimmt. "Apparently those responsible hadn’t registered that the Iranians could not accept the killing of such senior commanders, particularly at this place."

An extensive New York Times report confirmed that not only did the Israelis fail to coordinate with their allies in Washington ahead of the attack in Damascus, they also underestimated the fact "that the unwritten rules of engagement in the long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran have changed drastically in recent months.”

Since October 7, the result has been "escalation after escalation and miscalculation after miscalculation." And that has raised fears "of a retribution cycle that could potentially become an all-out war."

And with Iran and Israel firing on each other more directly than ever before, this danger has not exactly grown smaller.

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The Phoenix symbolizes former President Donald Trump. What is coming up in November?

Artwork - All rights reserved by Germán & Co.

Do not limit your imagination…

The New York Times article by Stephen Markley, dated April 20, 2024.

In the 12 years it took me to write “The Deluge,” my novel of the climate crisis, I watched as chaotic weather, record temperatures and shocking political events outpaced my imagination. The book depicts the human tipping point, when the damage becomes irreversible and the foundations of our economy, our politics and our world begin to crack. The plot points I was concocting in 2010 would become a constant drumbeat of headlines into 2024.

Last year alone, the warning signs included soaring ocean temperatures, a record loss of Antarctic Sea ice and the highest global average temperature in recorded human history. Wildfires, droughts, floods and extreme weather of every variety have come to shock even the scientists who study the shocking stuff. This is not the history we want to be living through.

Yet here we are, and those gears of history will grind together again this year as another presidential election meets our permanent emergency. The stakes of the climate crisis render the cliché of “This is the most important election of our lifetimes” increasingly true because every four years those stakes climb precipitously alongside the toppling records of a radically new climatic regime.

The White House may soon be recaptured by Donald Trump, who called the climate crisis a “hoax” and even when backing off that assertion insisted, “I don’t know that it’s man-made.” He has demonstrated his thinking again and again, as when he told a scientist, “It’ll start getting cooler, you just watch.”

There has recently been a great deal of reporting on Project 2025, a 900-plus-page road map for a second Trump administration assembled by the conservative Heritage Foundation. On climate, the report is succinct: “The Biden administration’s climate fanaticism will need a whole-of-government unwinding.”

The report recommends a repeal of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act, which would shred the tax credits that have led to hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in clean energy, the jump-starting of factory openings and the creation of jobs in virtually every corner of the country. Also lost will be investments in environmental justice, those measures that aim to reduce pollution in marginalized communities, provide affordable clean energy and create jobs in low-income neighborhoods. As for electric cars, which are critical to meeting the nation’s climate goals, the report recommends an end to all federal mandates and subsidies.

A second Trump administration would most likely grant permits for fossil fuel drilling and pipelines basically anywhere it has the say-so, scrap the methane fee on oil and gas producers and dismantle new pollution limits on cars, trucks and power plants. It would almost certainly revoke California’s waiver to approve higher standards under the Clean Air Act, seek repeal of the Antiquities Act used to protect endangered landscapes and attempt to gut the Endangered Species Act.

A changing climate, a changing world

The role of our leaders: Writing at the end of 2020, Al Gore, the 45th vice president of the United States, found reasons for optimism in the Biden presidency, a feeling perhaps borne out by the passing of major climate legislation. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been criticisms. For example, Charles Harvey and Kurt House argue that subsidies for climate capture technology will ultimately be a waste.

The worst climate risks, mapped: In this feature, select a country, and we'll break down the climate hazards it faces. In the case of America, our maps, developed with experts, show where extreme heat is causing the most deaths.

What people can do: Justin Gillis and Hal Harvey describe the types of local activism that might be needed, while Saul Griffith points to how Australia shows the way on rooftop solar. Meanwhile, small changes at the office might be one good way to cut significant emissions, writes Carlos Gamarra.

But perhaps most ominously, a Trump presidency would impede Americans’ ability to find out what’s being done to them. Project 2025 proposes dismantling and privatizing parts of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal agency that studies and monitors the climate, and using an executive order to “reshape” the Global Change Research Program, apparently to muddy its assessments of the pace of climate change and the potential impact. We would walk into this new dark era with a blindfold on.

Mr. Trump is at heart a billionaire doing favors for other billionaires by cutting their taxes and eliminating or not enforcing rules that protect the rest of us from asthma and cancer. During his four years in office, he managed to dismantle or degrade over 100 environmental rules, which brought real-world death and suffering. The medical journal The Lancet estimated that in the year 2019 alone these policies led to 22,000 excess deaths from heart disease, asthma and lung cancer, among other causes.

For all the damage that was done, Mr. Trump and his administration fortunately proved incompetent at making the government fulfill his intentions. We shouldn’t delude ourselves with thinking that he and his allies will be caught as flatfooted as they were by their surprise victory in 2016. What Project 2025 demonstrates is that an enormous amount of thinking has gone in to how to destroy the government’s capacity to enforce environmental protections, conduct research or even assess the scientific reality of our situation. Of course, the worst-case scenario, a full or partial repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, will depend on the composition of Congress.

My advice is to not tell yourself comforting bedtime stories about the political resiliency of that law when so many of its benefits lie in the years ahead.

One can hold up a document like Project 2025 and shout from the rooftops just how extreme it is. One can attempt to use numbers to describe this danger. But everyone will fall short — and, surely, I’ve fallen short — in describing just how frightening a second Trump presidency could actually be.

Do not limit your imagination…

Mr. Trump himself offered a glimpse in a recent meeting with oil and gas executives at Mar-a-Lago, where, The Washington Post reported, he said, “I hate wind.” He also told the executives that they should contribute to his campaign, that his policies would be much better for oil and gas than President Biden’s and that he’d do much of what they wanted “on Day 1.”

History will fork, and in a single day our window of opportunity for keeping the climate crisis from spiraling out of control could very well slam shut. Global emissions must peak this decade and begin a rapid decline for the world to have any chance of avoiding catastrophic warming. When I began writing my novel, we had something like 20 years to accomplish that task. After the election, we will have 62 months.

This makes the 2024 election a singular event in the climate crisis. Despite a number of headwinds, renewable energy capacity boomed last year, increasing 50 percent globally. According to the International Energy Agency, global renewable capacity is on course to be at two and a half times current levels by 2030, which means the world is edging closer to achieving a key climate target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. The risks of the crisis are growing rapidly, but so is our capacity to confront this challenge at the speed and scale necessary. We must accelerate that momentum at all costs.

The other major candidate in the race, President Biden, has been a steadfast proponent of that acceleration.

I fully admit, Mr. Biden was not my first, nor even my seventh, choice in the 2020 Democratic primary. Yet when it came to the immense challenge of confronting this crisis, I am forever grateful that he proved me wrong, delivering a game-changing victory with the narrowest of congressional margins. Even as much of the rest of Mr. Biden’s ambitious policy agenda got hacked away in Congress, one thing remained: re-industrialization through clean energy investment.

This led to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate legislation the country has ever seen and a more important achievement than the Paris climate accord. In just two years, that bill has galvanized clean energy investment in the United States and set a pace for the rest of the world to compete in the growing clean energy economy. These investments are expected to create more than nine million jobs over the next decade. That growth in clean energy is not only breaking records by the year but also by the quarter, with the end of 2023 seeing a 40 percent increase in investments in clean energy and transportation over the last quarter of 2022.

As those industries of decarbonization spread to every state and to many congressional districts, people’s lives and livelihoods increasingly will become intertwined and invested in clean energy. When a Texas congressman can’t survive an election in a solidly Republican district without the backing of the wind and solar industries, when a battery factory in Hardin County, Ky., is employing 5,000 people, when the fossil fuel economy is falling to the zero-carbon infrastructure we demand, that will change a politician’s calculations. The increasing political and economic clout of those clean energy industries will challenge the fossil fuel status quo. We are at the beginning of an absolute revolution of the American economy that will send manufacturing soaring and pollution plummeting.

Any climate hawk could try to encumber my argument with caveats, unaddressed pet issues and whatabouts, but as far as our shared atmosphere is concerned, there are only three pieces of relevant information: who Joe Biden is, who Donald Trump is, and the urgency of the crisis before us. While it’s true the United States continues to produce record amounts of fossil gas and near-record amounts of oil, these numbers reflect the all-of-the-above energy policies of the past 15 years. The Inflation Reduction Act and several critical regulations from Mr. Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency will drive the decarbonization that should put us within striking distance of our Paris climate agreement target by 2030, something that seemed unfathomable four years ago.

It’s worth dissecting how we achieved such progress. This stunning victory was made possible only by Stacey Abrams’s tenacious work in Georgia to flip two U.S. Senate seats in 2020, giving Mr. Biden a Senate majority on top of a House majority (which he narrowly lost in 2022).

Work is also underway on the state and local levels. In the last four years, Democrats have led efforts in Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan and Washington to pass ambitious climate laws when voters demanded it. In major cities, we see aggressive action like Minneapolis’s Climate Equity Plan and Chicago’s push to end natural gas hookups for new construction.

From small cities like Athens, Ohio, which has a citywide carbon fee, to high school students campaigning for solar panels and electric buses, citizens can drive the movement to electrify everything and crush demand for fossil fuels. State public utility commissions remain ignored players with their hands on the controls of enormous amounts of carbon, ripe for campaigns to elect or appoint climate-oriented members. Whether we’re voting for president or state legislator or dogcatcher, we should vote for a dogcatcher who recognizes the imperative of the climate crisis.

The lesson being that the only thing that has worked, and must continue to work, is democracy at every level. None of us have the option to be cynical, to disdain electoral politics or to pretend we’re not making a distinct moral choice when voting for a third-party candidate or sitting out an election.

Right now, this means electing Democrats. The expiration of many of the Trump tax cuts in 2025 could create the leverage to push climate efforts even farther. We must look at this election and understand that it’s now or never — that we can create the opportunity for the United States to smash past its emission reduction goals and spur the rest of the world to follow. The climate movement can either fight like hell for Mr. Biden’s re-election or watch as Mr. Trump and his allies set fire to the planet.

Climate is not just another issue. I do not deny that we live in a complex and precarious world or that our consciences are torn by a web of domestic challenges and geopolitical upheavals. But we are in denial if we do not recognize that this is the crisis that will define this century, and if we fail, the entire human future. Our fossil fuel system is driving the planet to a set of conditions that humanity has never experienced, where even the imagination of novelists will fail us.

And yet the climate crisis is also the foundation on which we can build a more just, equitable and prosperous world. Every election is precious, every ballot we cast a moral record of what we did in this crucial historical moment. Do not sit on your hands, do not deny the stakes, do not waste that vote.

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Putin is bombing Ukraine into darkness — and leaving Europe short of power

The EU relies on Kyiv for energy. So Russia is attacking the critical storage sites that hold Europe’s gas.

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Notes from the editor:

In recent days, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has been addressing the potential for increased warfare in Europe. Meanwhile, the United States is engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's influential Prime Minister, plays a pivotal role in these developments, with the U.S. striving to prevent any escalation. Concurrently, Putin's relentless bombing campaign in Ukraine has wrought devastation, impacting not only Ukraine but also the broader European region. The ongoing conflict's severe impacts are resonating beyond the immediate areas, raising concerns and challenges at a continental level.

Here are the key points:

1. Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure Under Attack:

   • Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy transformers for the past two years, facilitating power distribution.

   • However, the recent shift involves direct attacks on entire power plants, causing more permanent damage.

   • The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, once a significant electricity producer for millions and a symbol of Ukraine's energy independence, now lies in ruins near Kyiv.Due to these attacks, DTEK, Ukraine’s most prominent private energy firm and a major contributor to the country's economy, has lost nearly 80% of its generating capacity.Repairing the damage will take years, leaving Ukraine in a precarious and desperate situation, struggling to keep the lights and heating on during the upcoming winter. The vulnerability of the nation is stark and deeply concerning.Ukraine’s air defences are depleted, making it challenging to fend off the missiles raining down on energy infrastructure.

2. Spillover to Europe:

   • Last winter, Ukraine offered its gas storage network to European traders to build up reserves in case of Russian supply disruptions.

   • Now, Russia is targeting that very network, raising concerns about Europe’s preparedness for alternative energy sources.

   • Oleg Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist, emphasizes that Russia is using energy as a weapon not only against Ukraine but against the entire world.

3. A Dispiriting Development:

   • Until recently, Ukraine was optimistic about becoming an energy powerhouse for Europe and exporting electricity to its Western neighbours.

   • Now, the destruction of power plants and infrastructure threatens stability and security.

The situation is critical, and the impact extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. Europe must grapple with the consequences of this energy crisis caused by conflict and aggression. It is crucial for us, as global citizens, to stay informed and advocate for peaceful resolutions to such conflicts.

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AES Dominicana has significantly enhanced the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system through the utilization of diverse fuels and renewable energy sources.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VICTOR JACK, APRIL 17, 2024 6:00 AM CET

Just outside Kyiv is a smoking crater where one of Ukraine's largest power plants used to be.

The bombed-out ruin of the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant — the main electricity producer for millions of people — is a symbol of a devastating shift underway in Ukraine. In recent weeks, Russia has started inflicting far more permanent damage on Ukraine’s energy system, not only taking out generating stations but even going after the vast underground gas storage facilities the EU leaned on last winter to avoid its own energy shortages.

It's a change from the past two years, when Moscow and its invading army mostly targeted Ukraine’s energy transformers, the components that move power from one circuit to another. Such attacks were damaging, but the parts could be quickly repaired or substituted.Now that entire power plants are in their crosshairs, the repairs are going to take years. And the storage strikes may deprive Europe of a critical backup plan.

"Our thermal power plants have been attacked 48 times over the past six months, but without a doubt, Russia’s attacks in the past few weeks have been the worst since [the] full-scale invasion in 2022," Maxim Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine's largest private energy firm, DTEK, told POLITICO. 

The company, he said, has now lost close to 80 percent of its generating capacity. 

The results are distressing — and not just for Ukraine. Officials there are worried about how they’ll get through the winter with the lights and heating on. Ukraine’s air defenses are running low, they say, making it increasingly difficult to parry the missiles raining down on energy infrastructure. Nor are there many easy-to-access repair parts for those degraded power plants.

Then there’s the spillover to Europe. Last winter Ukraine offered its gas storage network to European traders as they frantically built up reserves in case Russia axed supplies when the temperature dropped. Now Russia is targeting that network, raising questions about whether the EU is prepared with alternatives.

"The Russians have been trying to use energy as a weapon not just against Ukraine but against the whole world," said Oleg Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist who until recently served as a senior advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “This is a challenge for us, but it's also a challenge for Europe.”

Gridlock

It’s a dispiriting development in an area that, until recently, was a source of optimism for Ukraine. 

Just weeks ago Ukraine was pitching itself as a powerhouse for Europe, boasting of exporting around €1 million in electricity daily to its Western neighbors. Now the financial balance has flipped, with Kyiv draining its precarious budget to import energy as it struggles to avoid blackouts and power a wartime arms industry.

"There's enormous pressure, especially in regions like Kharkiv where all our main assets were attacked by missiles and we are trying to restore as much power as possible while the adversary is undertaking more and more new attacks," said Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, CEO of state power grid operator Ukrenergo, in an interview. 

"I'm sure we will be able to get the grid up and running,” he added, “but the generation of power seems to be the main problem."

According to Timchenko, only support from Ukraine's allies can save the grid from more destruction. 

"Unfortunately, the passive defenses DTEK has been installing — such as concrete blocks and sandbags — have only had a limited effect against these precision attacks,” he said. “We urgently need stronger air defenses to save and protect Ukraine’s energy system."

Kyiv has been calling on its partners to step up and help it defend its infrastructure since the start of the new wave of bombardments in March.

Speaking in the aftermath of the Trypilska power plant bombing, Zelenskyy said: "11 missiles flew towards it. We destroyed the first seven; four others destroyed the plant. Why? Because there were zero [Ukrainian] missiles — we have run out of all the missiles that protected Trypilska." 

For now, though, a critical aid package for Ukraine is tied up within a months-long deadlock in Washington.

On Monday Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko held emergency talks in Brussels with the EU's energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, as the situation continued to deteriorate. According to a Ukrainian official with knowledge of the talks, the minister focused on "further international steps and assistance needed to support the energy system of Ukraine — with foremost priority to ensure more air defense."

While Germany confirmed over the weekend it would ship one additional Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine, many see that as too little, too late following attacks that have deprived the country of its energy independence. Now, instead of helping the EU break its dependence on Russian fossil fuels by providing cheap electricity, Kyiv is left hoping that its neighbors will help it keep the lights on in the coming months, and maybe years.

"This is having dramatic economic effects," Ustenko said. "It's very unlikely we will be able to continue exports and probably will be needing to import electricity." 

To make matters worse, he added, the mounting attacks risk deterring the private investors that Ukraine needs to modernize its beleaguered grid and roll out smaller renewable energy projects that will be harder for the Russians to target. 

Gas fears

Ukraine’s energy troubles are increasingly becoming Europe’s energy troubles as well. 

Last week Russia signaled a potential new phase in its energy assault, striking two separate sites tied to Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage network. 

The facilities were crucial to Europe’s energy efforts last winter, with traders stashing billions of cubic meters of fuel there in case of acute shortages. The extra storage capacity gave EU countries easy access to the supplies and allowed companies to store excess fuel they would otherwise have had nowhere to put — and which they would have been forced to sell off at a cost of up to €2 billion.

"Ukraine saved Europe's ass," said Aura Sabadus, a gas expert at commodities intelligence firm ICIS. "And the tragedy is that the gas they were storing comes from countries that are opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, most of it comes from Hungary and Slovakia. And ultimately that will backfire.”

There’s more supply uncertainty on the horizon for Europe, too. At the end of the year a transit deal allowing Russia to send pipeline gas to the EU via Ukraine is set to expire, and Kyiv is insisting the pact will not be extended.

"The horror scenario is no Ukrainian storage facilities in December, no transit," Sabadus said. "Then what do we actually do? And even longer term, with another huge glut of liquefied natural gas coming in from the U.S. and Qatar from 2025 onwards, where are we going to put all that as a security of supply measure?"

According to Ustenko, the former Zelenskyy advisor, the longer the West waffles over handing Ukraine more air defense systems, the worse it will be for everyone involved.

"We need to save our country, save our people, and the sooner decisions about anti-air missiles are taken, the better it's going to be for Ukraine and Europe,” he said.

Speaking to POLITICO, the European Commission's energy spokesperson Tim McPhie said that the bloc has and will continue to help Ukraine repair the damage to its energy system. "This is done first and foremost for the benefit of our Ukrainian friends; the gas stored in Ukraine is only a small percentage of our domestic needs in Europe, though of course this extra capacity is welcome and useful.”

"We will continue to provide the necessary support to respond to Ukraine’s energy needs. This includes the repair of the gas storage sites which have recently been attacked, continued electricity exports through our synchronized electricity grids, and material contributions through the Ukraine Energy Support Fund and the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.”

Gabriel Gavin reported from Berlin. Victor Jack reported from Brussels. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv. 

This article has been updated with a response from the European Commission.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Why This Narrow Strait Next to Iran Is So Critical to the World’s Oil Supply (NYT)

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Other articles in this edition:

New Maui Fire Report Shows the Role Hawaiian Electric Power Line Played in Deadly Blaze

Hawaii attorney general report includes transcripts of communications on the day Lahaina was destroyed

The report provides details about high winds and a downed power line on the day catastrophic flames engulfed the historic town last summer.

The Wall Street Journal article by Dan Frosch and Christine Mai-Duc dated April 17, 2024.

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Friendly Arab nations urge restraint, but will Netanyahu listen?

“The world awaits Israel's response following Iran's assault, and whether "Bibi" will emulate the restraint shown by a legendary predecessor…

https://www.politico.eu/article/friendly-arab-nations-urge-restraint-but-will-netanyahu-listen/

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What is happening in August?  

After reading the amazing article in The New York Times today: “Miscalculation Led to Escalation in Clash Between Israel and Iran”/ Israeli officials say they didn’t see a strike on a high-level Iranian target in Syria as a provocation, and did not give Washington a heads-up about it until right before it happened…

The Israeli official asserted that the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, (blowing up the building and killing some high-ranking officials) was not a deliberate provocation. If we interpret his words correctly, He meant it as merely a "friendly reminder." The pertinent question, then, is whether it is possible to reach August…

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Editorial:

The dangers of deviation in the human brain . . .

Humanity faces a 'cosmic discord' with poverty and inflation shaping an uncertain future.

In this new celestial, mysterious, treacherous and absurd theatre, drones and missiles perform a deadly ballet, with movements cutting across the sky with surgical fluidity. Picture this: a world filled with futuristic technology that surpasses our wildest imaginations. Despite all its wonders, however, a void persists. The rain, that magical elixir of life, is nowhere to be seen. Not even a hint of argent droplets to quench the parched earth. It’s a strange new world indeed.

The brewing chaos began on a fateful day—November 17, 2019—in Wuhan, China. It was then that SARS-CoV-2, a deceptively simple collection of proteins and nucleic acids, was first detected. The virus, which can only reproduce within specific living cells, has since been classified as coronavirus by the Royal Spanish Academy.

What brutality has ensued from this unassuming organism?  How many loved ones are missing from our side today? And all because of a supposed human error in a laboratory.

With the emergence of the virus, genuine expressions of affection, handshakes and hugs—which do so much good for the so-called soul—were replaced by immaterial faces called emojis, which flow at an infinite density (billions per second), devoid of any merciful human contact. This microscopic life form would cause us to die.

Not even the science fiction genius James Graham Ballard (born in Shanghai, 1930 and died in London, 2009) could have envisioned the impact on the future of a community of individuals living on a small, isolated and ailing planet called Earth.

The pandemic is not a mere health crisis; it has engendered extensive human suffering and economic upheaval, leading to unparalleled levels of inflation on a global scale. This eroding onslaught is born of shortages in food, raw materials and almost of kinds of components rather than an overheating economy.

The question is, how can central banks stabilise the process by raising interest rates?

The results defy expectations.

“Why Better Times (and Big Raises) Haven’t Cured the Inflation Hangover/Frustrated by higher prices, many Pennsylvanians with fresh pay raises and solid finances report a sense of insecurity lingering from the pandemic…

The New York Times article by Talmon Joseph Smith, dated April 15, 2024.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html

Central banks use their tools—interest rates, quantitative easing (a monetary policy tool that can stimulate or restrain the economy) and forward guidance (a communication tool used by central banks to influence market expectations)—to tame the beast. This time, however, the wild beast seems unyielding, and more than these traditional instruments may be needed to address the complex issues confronting us. 

To exacerbate the situation, Russia expanded its incursion into Ukraine in 2023., decreasing the natural gas supply to Europe and causing the price of this fuel to rise. This development has further aggravated the inflationary process, even as it is unrelated to the gas supply issue. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine has also opened the door for other governments to deploy military intervention to address historical border problems in all corners of the world.

A case in point is Israel and Iran’s centuries-old rivalry: fuelled by ideology, territorial disputes and historical grievances but extends, as well, beyond a power struggle. Their actions ripple across borders, affecting their citizens and the delicate balance of global stability. The war in which they engage—subtle yet potent—has the potential to reshape alliances, redraw boundaries and alter the course of history, leaving countless lives shattered in its wake.

Conventional equations have been rendered obsolete. The delicate balance between growth and stability is on the verge of collapse. And so, the world spins—a theatre of intrigue, a canvas of uncertainty.

Israel and Iran are locked in a tense standoff, and as inflation follows an intractable trajectory, humanity wrestles with questions that have no simple answers.

Will diplomacy prevail? Can economies find equilibrium? Or are we witnessing a grand unravelling—a symphony of chaos and consequence?

Why is this phenomenon occurring? The answer lies in deviations in the human mind: addiction to power, the exploitation of political authority for one’s benefit, which leads to the petty accumulation of wealth, with people completely forgetting that what is sufficient and necessary must be an imperative for all members of the human family. The pandemic, the war, inflation—all spawns of these deviations. This is not simply a theoretical concept but a stark reality that we must confront.

While many of us contemplate drones, cruise missiles and whatever else is up whoever’s sleeves, these technologies cast a shadow over the skies of the Middle East, complicating the survival of billions who inhabit this sick planet instead of contributing to a better world.

Only time will tell—the ultimate arbiter, the silent witness to our collective drama.

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

Thank you, Manuel…

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AES Dominicana has significantly enhanced the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system through the utilization of diverse fuels and renewable energy sources.

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The withdrawal of Iraqi forces during Operation Desert Storm led to the burning of Kuwaiti oil wells, which darkened the skies with smoke on March 25, 1991.. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.

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“Global financial markets have been affected by geopolitical tensions for many years. For example, in the 1970s, conflicts in the Middle East resulted in significant disruptions to oil supply, leading to a surge in oil prices and subsequent economic repercussions on a global scale. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the end of the Cold War. This ushered in a new era in international relations, causing volatility and uncertainty in global markets as investors adapted to the changing geopolitical landscape. The United Kingdom's 2016 referendum on EU membership also had a notable effect on financial markets, with stock market fluctuations, currency depreciation, and heightened investor anxiety stemming from uncertainties surrounding the UK's future relationship with the European Union. The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have further contributed to market volatility, impacting global supply chains, corporate profits, and investor sentiment. Geopolitical events can disrupt financial markets, influencing asset prices, investor confidence, and economic stability.,,

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The New York Times article by Karl Russell, Denise Lu, and Anjali Singhvi was updated on July 11, 2019.

Twenty percent of the global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water that separates Persian Gulf countries from the rest of the world.

From May 15 to June 15, more than 1,000 tanker ships traveled the strait, according to MarineTraffic, an industry analytics firm. Many were destined for places as far away as China and South Korea.

But the gulf region has been recently rocked by instability, threatening the flow of oil through the strait. Since May, six tankers have been attacked along the strait. On Thursday, British officials said Iranian boats threatened to block one of its vessels from passing through the waterway.

The instability comes amid rising tensions between Iran and the United States and some of its allies. Last year, President Trump abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and has since imposed crippling sanctions on the country. Iran, in defiance, has begun stockpiling and enriching uranium at higher levels.

If tensions persist, disruptions along the strait, where the shipping channel is barely two miles wide, could be felt by dozens of countries that buy Middle Eastern oil in large quantities.

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Oil consumption by Asian countries has surged

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In the past two decades, oil consumption has exploded in countries like China and India, where expanding middle classes have driven large-scale economic growth. China’s demand for oil has nearly tripled over that period. During that time, the United States remained the world’s biggest consumer of oil, going through tens of millions of barrels a day.

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The U.S. has come back as a global oil
player, reducing its reliance on foreign oil

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A recent shale-drilling boom in the United States has caused the production of oil and gas in the country to skyrocket, making America less dependent on imports and allowing it to reclaim its role as a leader in the global energy industry. Oil production in the United States grew an extraordinary 17 percent last year.

The surge has changed the dynamics of the world’s oil market, which has long taken its cues from OPEC, the cartel of oil producers that includes Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran.

In previous eras, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz might have spooked the oil market; the market’s response to the recent instability has been relatively muted, in part because of how much oil now comes from the United States.

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The American sanctions have
decimated Iran’s oil exports

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As its reliance on Middle Eastern oil has decreased, the United States has found itself in a stronger position when dealing with countries like Iran.

The American sanctions, although not adopted by all nations, allow the United States to punish companies and countries that engage in trade with Iran. Oil exports have long been the lifeblood of the Iranian economy.

Some countries were initially granted waivers under the sanctions, but many have stopped buying oil from Iran to avoid the risk of being punished by the United States. Iran’s exports have since plummeted.

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Note: Map shows estimated position of all tankers leaving or entering the Persian Gulf from May 15 to June 15. Tankers include all vessels in the general ‘Tanker’ category of Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmitted ship type data, such as crude oil or chemical tankers. Countries visited are based on where port calls were made.

Stanley Reed contributed reporting.

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Image by Germán & Co

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New Maui Fire Report Shows the Role Hawaiian Electric Power Line Played in Deadly Blaze

Hawaii attorney general report includes transcripts of communications on the day Lahaina was destroyed

The report provides details about high winds and a downed power line on the day catastrophic flames engulfed the historic town last summer.

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The Wall Street Journal article by Dan Frosch and Christine Mai-Duc dated April 17, 2024.

A Maui County emergency dispatcher called Hawaiian Electric early on Aug. 8 last year and said one of the utility’s power lines had broken and started a fire near Lahaina, according to a new report issued by the Hawaii attorney general’s office. 

The blaze, which ultimately destroyed the historic Maui town later that day and killed at least 101 people, can be traced back to that morning incident, the report said.

The 376-page report, released by Hawaii Attorney General Anne Lopez on Wednesday, includes transcripts of communication from Hawaiian Electric and emergency responders about where the fire ignited and whether the utility’s power lines had been de-energized in high winds.

While the report doesn’t assign blame for the disaster, it provides the most comprehensive account thus far of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in a century, including the roles that downed power lines and wind played. 

Origins of the Lahaina Wildfire

“The origin of the Lahaina Fire can be traced back to 6:35 a.m., when a fast-moving brush fire, later dubbed the ‘Lahaina AM Fire’ ignited,” said the report, which was produced by the Fire Safety Research Institute in Columbia, Md., at the request of Lopez. 

Maui firefighters reported that blaze was extinguished and returned to their quarters at around 2 p.m. A second fire was reported at around 2:55 p.m., at the same location as the earlier incident, according to the report.

A representative for Hawaiian Electric said the report’s description of the early-morning fire aligns with what it has said publicly. The company has previously said that its power lines likely caused that fire, but that its lines had been shut off for more than six hours by the time the afternoon blaze erupted. That second blaze, the company stated in response to a lawsuit filed by Maui County, was the one that destroyed Lahaina. 

Wednesday’s report doesn’t address the utility’s claims about when its power lines were de-energized. 

Even before the Lahaina fire sparked that day, Hawaiian Electric was dealing with damaged poles from high winds and another blaze that had sparked near downed lines on the other side of the island. 

“The rate of the fire’s growth would ultimately impede the crew’s work in many areas of Lahaina,” the report said. 

Firefighters in deadly danger

Conditions deteriorated so dramatically that water pipes failed, and in some parts of Lahaina, there was no water coming from fire hydrants. Fire crews had to rely on scarce private water tankers instead, the report said.

Some fire crews became trapped. Heat from the fire melted their boots and sealed shut the compartment doors on one engine.

One firefighter used a police SUV to rescue seven colleagues, including an unconscious officer who received CPR, according to the report.ments, saying local officials’ lack of response had slowed the investigation. The county has said it is fully cooperating with the attorney general’s probe.

Shares in Hawaiian Electric Industries have fallen 10.1% over the past five days, amid investor anticipation of the report. They rose 2.63% Wednesday, closing at $9.77.

The Lahaina blaze destroyed more than 2,200 structures and caused an estimated $5.5 billion in damages, displacing more than 6,000 of the town’s 13,000 residents. 

As of February, Hawaiian Electric had been named in at least 101 lawsuits by plaintiffs claiming losses related to the fire. Maui County has also been sued by people seeking damages resulting from the fire.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Hawaiian Electric and Maui County knew about the increasing threat of wildfires on the island but took little action. The Journal also reported that large landowners, including the state and Kamehameha Schools, allowed invasive grasses to grow in the hills above Lahaina, which led to the fire’s spread. The state said it has tried to mitigate vegetation with limited funds. Kamehameha Schools said it was committed to being safe stewards of its land.

Hawaiian Electric, the county, the state and Kamehameha Schools all put more than $150 million into a victims’ compensation fund for families of the deceased who agree not to bring wrongful death suits. 

Maui’s fire department issued its own report a day earlier

In its own report released Tuesday, the Maui fire department said it lacked sufficient water tankers and fire engines to combat the Lahaina blaze. That report, produced by the Western Fire Chiefs Association, also said the department did minimal work to staff up and preposition resources amid warnings of strong winds that posed a high wildfire risk. 

It said firefighters remained on scene for more than five hours after containing the earlier Lahaina brush fire, “using copious amounts of water” and firefighting foam to make sure it wouldn’t reignite.

At a press conference Tuesday, Maui County Fire Chief Brad Ventura painted a picture of a fully staffed fire department facing impossible odds against a fierce wind-swept disaster.

“No training is going to overcome what they faced that day,” Ventura told reporters.

What other reports about the Lahaina fire are still in the works?

Two additional reports by the Fire Safety Research Institute—one on how Maui’s fire protection systems functioned during the Lahaina blaze and one on recommendations for the future—are expected to be released later this year by the Hawaii attorney general’s office.

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is conducting a separate investigation into how the fire began at the request of Maui County fire officials and is expected to release its findings soon

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Pompous or nefarious? Middle East Conflict on Oil Markets? Iraq-Iran war parallels Israeli-Iran conflict?

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Introduction of the Middle East Conflict on Oil Markets:

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If Shakespeare were to momentarily shift his focus from contemplating profound existential dilemmas, such as the timeless "To be or not to be" or the more contemporary quandary of "Married or unmarried," he might discover that the intricate complexities of the enduring Middle East conflict appear surprisingly less daunting than the decision to say "I do" or not.

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The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, such as Iran's drone and missile strikes on Israel, has raised concerns about possible disruptions in oil supply and resulting market volatility.  Despite tensions, the oil market has seen a slight price decrease, with Light Crude Oil Futures showing a marginal decline.  Traders need to monitor further dynamic developments closely.

“The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, released on October 30, 2023, states that the current global economy is more resilient to oil price shocks compared to the 1970s. The ongoing Middle East conflict and the Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead global commodity markets into uncharted territory. The report advises mitigating impacts if the conflict does not intensify. The baseline forecast anticipates oil prices to average $90 per barrel this quarter, with a projected fall to $81 per barrel next year as global economic growth decelerates. Commodity prices are expected to fall by 4.1% next year, with agricultural commodity prices likely to decrease due to higher supplies. Base metal prices are projected to drop by 5% in 2024…

The report outlines three risk scenarios based on historical events since the 1970s, depending on the disruption to oil supplies. 

1. In a minor disruption scenario, global oil supply could decrease by 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day, similar to the Libyan civil war in 2011.  Oil prices are projected to increase by 3% to 13% compared to the current quarter, reaching $93 to $102 per barrel.

2.  If a medium disruption happens, the global oil supply could decrease by 3 to 5 million barrels per day, similar to the Iraq war's impact in 2003.  Oil prices could increase by 21% to 35%, reaching $109 to $121 per barrel.

 3. A significant disruption, similar to the Arab oil embargo in 1973, would reduce the global oil supply by 6 to 8 million barrels per day.  Consequently, prices are expected to increase by 56% to 75%, reaching $140 to $157 per barrel.

In conclusion, although the conflict's impact on global commodity markets has been limited, policymakers must remain vigilant.  Any further escalation could significantly impact increased oil prices and worsen food insecurity.

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*WB Press Release on October 30, 2023. “Conflict in Middle East Could Bring ‘Dual Shock’ to Global Commodity Markets

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/26/commodity-markets-outlook-october-2023-press-release

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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A vital snapshot of today's global landscape...

In July 2000, U.S. President Bill Clinton, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and Chairman of the Palestinian Authority Yasser Arafat convened at Camp David for a summit aimed at addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The summit, held from July 11 to July 25, focused on fostering mutual understanding and devising a framework for peace negotiations.

Deepened lost in diplomacy...

https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24

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By Germán & Co in Karlstad, Sweden on April 15, 2024

In the vast theatre of life, political leaders of yesterday and today – as actors in an eternal drama – face a momentous decision: pomposity or perfidy?

…Two masks, two roles, two destinations.

Pomposity, like a marble throne in the Roman Forum, rises majestically.  He wears the cloak of self-importance, his bearing solemn.  The pompous orator declaims his words in marble halls but is often substanceless.  He is the leader who confuses grandiosity with gravity and rejoices in ceremony. But beware, because underneath the façade lies emptiness, a hollow vanity that mocks even the gods.  And then there's betrayal, that shadowy figure that lurks in the corridors of power.  He wears a mask of intrigue, his actions whispered in dark chambers.  Disappointedly, he dances; his footsteps leave no trace on the marble floors.  It's the puppeteer, pulling invisible strings, orchestrating chaos with an evil grin.  Perfidy thrives on secrecy, its motives veiled, and its actions calculated.  It's the dagger hidden in the folds of a senator's robe, ready to strike when you least expect it.  But beware, its darkness consumes everything: morality, honour, and the very fabric of society.

It is widely recognized that leaders may deliberately provoke conflict as a strategic approach to maintain control when they risk losing power.  "This phenomenon is complex and fascinating, deserving further comprehensive investigation."

The combination of Saddam Hussein (Ṣaddām Ḥusayn al-Tikrītī, was born on April 28, 1937, in the village of Al-ʿAwjah, Iraq) and Benjamin Netanyahu's (“Bibi”, born on October 21, 1949, in Tel Aviv, Israel), (The Israeli Prime Minister's nickname 'Bibi' has an ironic issue as it can be easily confused with the Arabic term 'Habibi', which means 'my beloved' or 'my dear one'.), unique attributes and behaviours and ISIS's impact on regional dynamics makes for an intriguing phenomenon that deserves further analysis.

Saddam Hussein, the former president of Iraq, made dangerous decisions based on his skewed perception of reality. He was known for his erratic behavior, which was further exacerbated by the fall of the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (The Shah, was born on October 26, 1919, in Tehran, Sublime State of Persia), in January 1979 and the emergence of Imam Ruhollah Khomeini (born in Khomeyn, in what is now Iran’s Markazi province). These events were perceived by Hussein as a significant threat to the Arab world, worsening his already distorted mindset.

Under authoritarian governance, Saddam Hussein exercised substantial control over Iraq, suppressing dissent and centralizing power through tactics of intimidation and coercion.  His administration was marked by violations of human rights, particularly the notorious Anfal campaign that specifically targeted the Kurdish community.

Additionally, Sheikh Fahad of Kuwait (Sheikh Fahad Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, born on August 10, 1945 in Kuwait), engaged in oil price manipulation (dumping), which exacerbated Hussein's erratic behavior.   Hussein perceived this as a direct threat to Iraq's struggling economy and regional stability. Consequently, his sense of instability was amplified, resulting in increasingly unpredictable decision-making.

Saddam Hussein's interactions with the United States were complex and evolved significantly over time.  In the 1980s, the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq as allies during the Iran–Iraq War.  This support was primarily driven by geopolitical motives and the goal of countering Iran's influence.

During this time, the U.S. offered Iraqi military aid, intelligence, and diplomatic backing.  In the 1990s, the United States changed its approach towards Saddam Hussein.

After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the U.S. led a coalition to liberate Kuwait and imposed economic sanctions on Iraq.  The U.S. aimed to contain Saddam's regime to reduce its regional impact, resulting in escalating tensions and a strained relationship.   

In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq, alleging that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).  The invasion led to the downfall of Saddam's regime.  Diplomatic relations were restored only after Saddam's removal, leading to the establishment of a pro-American government in Iraq.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, is recognized as an astute politician renowned for his strategic political manoeuvres.  He skillfully navigated the complexities of Israeli political dynamics by establishing coalitions and forming strategic alliances to uphold his authority.  Netanyahu's incoming hard-line government has prioritized the expansion of the West Bank settlement.  The coalition agreement includes plans to legalize dozens of illegally built outposts and even annex the occupied territory.  This controversial move is part of a coalition deal with ultranationalist allies.  However, most of the international community considers these settlements illegal and an obstacle to peace with the Palestinians.

The United States has already cautioned against actions that could undermine hopes for an independent Palestinian state.  The situation remains highly charged and could strain relations with Israel's closest allies abroad.

The Prime Minister of Israel's close connection to the former Trump administration (and his exaltation to the Gods, hoping that the former president Donald Trump (Donald John Trump was born on June 14, 1946, at Jamaica Hospital in Queens, New York City) would be re-elected in November's elections is also disputed.  Netanyahu has employed survival strategies like those used by Hussein.  He has effectively managed allegations of corruption, maintained a strong support network, and skilfully tackled security issues while facing a degree of divisiveness and polarization.  Specific individuals view him as a strong leader who prioritizes Israel's security, while others critique his policies and handling of domestic matters. Amid all the chaos, Europe is not taking any chances and is swiftly constructing an anti-aircraft shield for diplomatic security. Why, you ask? Well, it's all in preparation for the potential comeback of the one and only former President Donald Trump this coming November. Europe is not about to let any surprises catch them off guard!

The resurgence of ISIS has significantly influenced the dynamics in the Middle East.  The group's brutal tactics, territorial acquisitions, and recruitment efforts attracted international attention.  ISIS exploited preexisting conflicts, such as the Syrian civil war and sectarian tensions, to incite disorder and violence.  ISIS presented a significant challenge to the established state boundaries, resulting in destabilization within Iraq, Syria, and adjacent nations.  The ideology transcended national borders, attracting foreign combatants, and posing a threat to global security.

Finally, the potential risk of a global oil market disruption, such as the recent war in Ukraine, has not yet materialized. However, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine, which caused oil prices to skyrocket to over $110 per barrel.

The analysis concludes that the wanderer, who was suffering from cancer and had no place to stay, responded ambiguously to the question posed to the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.  This was during an interview with journalist David Frost (David Paradine Frost, born on April 7, 1939, in Tenterden, Kent, England) in 1979 for BBC (this interview is considered one of the most important in journalism history) on Contadora Island in Panama.  Frost asked the Shah how many people disappeared during his reign, but the answer remains to be discovered.  This situation is a clear reminder that one should not take unnecessary risks, which can lead to undesirable consequences.  Playing with fire always leaves one burned. 

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Bibliography:

1. The Camp David Summit in the USA, which took place from July 11 to 25, 2000.

2. David Frost's face-to-face interview with the Shah of Iran on Contadora Island, Panama, in 1979.

3. World Bank Press Release, October 30, 2023: "Conflict in Middle East May Trigger 'Dual Shock' in Global Commodity Markets"

4. Deepened lost in diplomacy... germantoroghio.com, august, 2023.

5. "The Achilles Trap" by Steve Coll, Pulitzer Prize winner, explores events leading to the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. Published 02/27/2024, the book offers a detailed analysis.

6. The intention to incite a global conflict should be clearly evident... Germantoroghio.com, March 2024.

7. Europe faces a tough test: Can it confront Vladimir Putin without help from the US? POLITICO European Union article from January 2024.

8. Isis Returns, as reported by Le Monde Diplomatique in March 2024.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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"Natural Gas and Renewable Energy: Europe's Balancing Act"

Historically, relying on a single strategic fuel supplier has been a double-edged sword.

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Europe’s new energy risk: Trading Russia for America

The EU replaced Russian energy with U.S. supplies after Moscow launched a war. Now people are wondering: Is Europe too dependent on America?

POLITICO by Gabriel Gavin, published on March 3, 2024.

“As for all hypothetical scenarios, we will not be speculating on U.S. potential cuts in production or supply to the EU,” a senior EU official told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss the situation.

“EU and U.S. officials met in Washington last month for talks as part of the EU-US Energy Council, but the issue of LNG permits wasn’t on the official agenda or a broader list of topics shared with POLITICO ahead of the tête-à-tête.

“Then there’s the Donald Trump factor. If Trump returns to the White House he is almost certain to push for a massive fossil fuel expansion while riding roughshod over conventional climate science.

“While an American LNG production boom would likely drive down prices, particularly for the short-term contracts the EU favors, it would raise uncomfortable questions about whether European nations are enabling an anti-environmental crusade. It would also raise the specter that the continent had taken control of its energy markets away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and given it to President Trump.

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Dear friends:

Happy Sabbat! As we part ways with a pledge to reunite in August, echoing Gabriel García Márquez's enigmatic posthumous literature, let us welcome the ambiguity of our conflict-ridden world. Today, the British newspaper "Daily Express" discusses how authorities are adopting Scandinavia's measures in preparation for a potential global conflict. On this special day, may it bring you joy, opportunities for self-reflection, and a sense of positive energy. Whether spent in tranquil solitude or in the company of loved ones, may the time be abundant with love and blessings.

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For the esteemed "Le Monde Diplomatique," the world of the month of April is viewed in this manner:

“…conflicts through the lens of history: India election special, New Delhi is not Beijing; has India become the world’s factory? Narendra Modi’s India oiled by crony capitalism; is India now a democracy in name only? agriculture once more in crisis; Ukraine, Macron’s poodles the new dogs of war; Moscow wants no less than surrender; Israeli far right’s Biblical pretexts for mass expulsion; Zionist movement’s cooption of Judaism; US, guns still a way of life across political divide; northern Mali, Tuaregs are fighting an existential war; the fat profits in international arbitration; empathy, our new panacea…

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Notes from the editor: 

Europe is confronted with a complex energy management dilemma as it depends on a single fuel supply, particularly in the case of natural gas, which has been used as a geopolitical tool by some countries. This situation is exemplified by historical conflicts such as the Suez Canal Crisis, the oil crisis of the 1970s, and the oil embargo enforced by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), which led to a increase in global oil prices. Russia's military intervention in Ukraine has been a contributing factor to the decrease in natural gas imports to Europe. Furthermore, the resurgence of ISIS, backed by a significant nation, has negatively impacted other economies. As a result, many nations are seeking to balance their energy requirements without becoming overly reliant on a single fuel source. In the case of Europe in the recent past, there was an excessive dependence on Russia for natural gas supply(1); now, this reliance has shifted to the United States. Reliance again on a single fuel supplier could make countries vulnerable to price fluctuations and source chain disruptions (Nord Stream, 7.5 billion euros, blast in seconds (2)). Therefore, it is important to avoid such dangerous dilemmas. Finally, the international community recognises the importance of technology in addressing energy security, environmental protection, economic growth, and clean energy needs, but the integration of cutting-edge renewable energy technologies has been a challenging and slow bureaucratic process, which doesn’t help in diversifying the energy matrix.

(1) The Riddle Of Non-Nord Stream Return… https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/blog-post-title-four-9r7yf-et66s-bcdgl-y5yy5-hlk5r-zxrcm-ac5jt-9mpkh

(2) Che cosa ! Nord Stream, 7.5 billion euros, blast in seconds… https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24-dxjl5-h6lly-jx95h-dalp4-6zlrk-fmre6-7zbng-c3ges-k94st

Following the insightful post from POLITICO EU regarding these matters...

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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President Joe Biden has instituted a temporary halt on the approval of new LNG projects. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.

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Europe’s new energy risk: Trading Russia for America

The EU replaced Russian energy with U.S. supplies after Moscow launched a war. Now people are wondering: Is Europe too dependent on America?

POLITICO by Gabriel Gavin, published on March 3, 2024.

On cloudy days, from his house John Beard can see the fireballs lighting up the dark sky, flares from the distant fossil fuel plants where he once made his living as a technician.

The fiery discharge of excess gas is a constant reminder of the industry that dominates life for Beard and his neighbors in Port Arthur, Texas, where one in four people live in poverty and the rate of cancer, heart and lung disease is well above the state average. Many locals blame the situation on the dark chimneys dotting the horizon. 

"Texas is known for two things: barbecue and gas," Beard said. "There's money being made and the people making the money don't look like me and they don't live in Port Arthur." 

The Lone Star State is America's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of which gets shipped to Europe. Worryingly for the EU, it's also ground zero for a growing protest movement pressuring Washington to wind down those exports to save the climate.

Ahead of a tight election in November, U.S. President Joe Biden has ordered a temporary pause on approving new LNG projects, effectively freezing the country's expansion of export infrastructure in a nod to climate-conscious voters. 

While green groups have praised the decision, Europeans are growing anxious about supply squeezes and price hikes. The EU bet big on U.S. LNG in 2022 after shunning the cheap Russian energy it had relied on for years. It spent billions on LNG infrastructure, and signed scores of new contracts. 

Those decisions are now being called into question: Did Europe trade its misbegotten reliance on Russia for a short-sighted reliance on America? The U.S. currently provides Europe with nearly 50 percent of its LNG — up from roughly a quarter before the war — and LNG has overtaken pipeline gas as the most important source of supplies.

The Lone Star State is America's largest producer of liquefied natural gas. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

“Having experienced the dangers of risking security of energy supply by depending too much on one source, Europe must learn from its past mistakes and avoid becoming over-reliant on the U.S.,” warned Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, in a recent report that found Europe's LNG demand is still growing.

Across the pond…

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, the EU and the U.K. have raced to replace Moscow's gas — largely delivered via pipelines across the continent — with seaborne shipments of American LNG. 

Today it's places like Port Arthur rather than Siberia that heat Europe's homes and power-heavy industries, a switch that prevented catastrophe as Russia turned off the taps.

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THE EU'S NEW LNG DEPENDENCE…

U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to EU countries*, in cubic feet per month.

*Belgium, Croatia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain.

SOURCE: U.S. Energy Information Administration  By Giovanna Coi

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That's why Biden's decision to potentially decrease LNG output has rattled European industry, even if the pause — if prolonged after the election — would only be felt in 10 to 15 years. The EuroGas trade association wrote the White House urging a reversal, warning of a return to "record high prices caused by the Russian supply drop.”

After the war began, European firms rapidly expanded their port infrastructure and built regasification plants — which turn liquid gas back into a usable form — planning for long-term imports from the U.S. 

Companies also signed a glut of short-term LNG contracts with U.S. firms — providing flexibility as renewable energy sources proliferate but making it harder to ensure low prices and know where your energy will come from in five or 10 years.

"We are not optimistic, but I would say compared to where we were two years ago we are at least in a neutral state," said Torben Brabo, president of Gas Infrastructure Europe, which represents operators and industry across the continent. "If we want to have reliable supplies from the U.S., we need to accept some mid-term contracts."

At a major oil and gas conference in Houston last month, energy company bosses including ExxonMobil Vice President John Ardill, whose firm wants to begin drilling for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, warned Europe that it must become more self-sufficient. 

"Redirecting liquefied natural gas and building [regasification] terminals are not long-term solutions," he said. 

Getting rid of gas?

Faced with calls for the energy sector to secure more U.S. LNG and step up local natural gas production, European climate campaigners say they are skeptical of whether either option is really needed.

"We see the industry outcry but we think it's much overdone," said Esther Bollendorff, a gas policy expert at Climate Action Network Europe. 

Bollendorff said Europe had undergone a “tectonic shift” since Russia’s invasion, noting the EU’s average gas consumption has dropped by about a fifth. Meanwhile, she added, the EU is steadily growing its renewable power and aims to cut an additional 30 percent off its gas consumption by 2030.

"But since 2022 we've got eight new or expanded LNG terminals coming online,” she said. “There's an over-capacity and it's likely they will be stranded assets because the utilization rate of existing capacity today is less than 60 percent.”

According to Nicolás González Casares, an MEP from Spain's governing Socialist party — which has overseen the construction of significant new LNG infrastructure — and a member of the European Parliament's energy committee, the expansion was "not a mistake" because "we needed this energy and our dependence on Russia was so strong that we cannot say no to LNG during these two years." 

However, he added, the priority should now be replacing gas with renewables: "We don't want really this business. Our business is to have clean energy here in Spain and also in Europe."

Nicolás González Casares, an MEP from Spain's governing Socialist party says the priority should now be replacing gas with renewables.

Industry representatives caution against leaving fossil fuels behind too quickly. They insist that even under the EU’s gas reduction plans, there is still a need to secure extra LNG supplies, particularly given the pressure to divest from Moscow’s exports. 

Nareg Terzian, a spokesperson for the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers, pointed to a “gap between projected demand” under the EU’s current forecasts “and the actual supply that we know of, if you take out Russia.”

“That’s the supply gap to be bridged,” Terzian argued. “And so it is extremely important that Europe be able to secure the necessary volumes from the U.S.” 

The numbers paint a mixed picture. European gas demand hit a record low for the decade last year, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. But the drop was driven mainly by three countries: Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. Overall, Europe’s LNG demand won’t peak until 2025, the institute concluded.

Meanwhile, the gas industry argues that extra LNG investments don’t limit Europe to U.S. supplies. It could also get LNG from producers like Norway and Qatar, said Brabo, the Gas Infrastructure Europe chief. Down the line, the ports could even be repurposed for less carbon-intensive fuels, he added. 

“It can be used for biomethane and green hydrogen immediately,” Brabo said. 

Change in management..

For now, the EU is staying out of the fray. 

“As for all hypothetical scenarios, we will not be speculating on U.S. potential cuts in production or supply to the EU,” a senior EU official told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss the situation.

EU and U.S. officials met in Washington last month for talks as part of the EU-US Energy Council, but the issue of LNG permits wasn’t on the official agenda or a broader list of topics shared with POLITICO ahead of the tête-à-tête.

Then there’s the Donald Trump factor. If Trump returns to the White House he is almost certain to push for a massive fossil fuel expansion while riding roughshod over conventional climate science.

While an American LNG production boom would likely drive down prices, particularly for the short-term contracts the EU favors, it would raise uncomfortable questions about whether European nations are enabling an anti-environmental crusade. It would also raise the specter that the continent had taken control of its energy markets away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and given it to President Trump.

"I would say to the Europeans, they need to understand that there's a very, very human cost for this gas," said Beard, the Port Arthur resident, who can list off the top of his head the names of neighbors with chronic diseases like cancer and lung conditions.

"Enough is enough. We refuse to be sacrificed any further."

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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AES Dominicana… “Let us hope for abundant electrical rainfall…

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PUERTO PRINCIPE/HAITI - OCTOBER 13, 2010: Singer Juan Luis Guerra speaks with journalists during the ceremony to begin the construction of a hospital for the victims of 2010 Haiti earthquake. All artwork rights are owned by Germán & Co. Any unauthorized publication is strictly prohibited.

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Introduction to the Voyage of Existence for the Better...

Image…

“Imagine a world where the skies gift us with electrical rainfall, a phenomenon where energy cascades from the heavens, promising to power our dreams and innovations. This is not just a flight of fancy, but a vision of a future where renewable energy is as natural and abundant as the rain that nourishes our earth. In this blog entry, we'll explore the exciting possibilities of harnessing the power of electrical storms, turning the might of nature into a sustainable source that could light up our cities and homes, and spark a revolution in how we think about and use energy. Join us on this electrifying journey as we delve into the potential of electrical rainfall and its role in powering a brighter, cleaner future. Imagine if we could store all this wonderful energy...

“Ojalá Que Llueva Café” is a song by Dominican singer-songwriter Juan Luis Guerra about the desire for a better life in the countryside. The song focuses on the metaphor of rain, specifically the rain of coffee, which alleviates the drought and hardships of rural life and provides abundant food and joy. Guerra’s lyrics depict a heavenly landscape of clouds seeding the fields with coffee and other crops such as cassava, tea, white cheese, watercress, honey, wheat, and a variety of trees. It describes people reaping the land’s bounty, celebrating, and singing together. The song is an ode to the impoverished rural areas of the Caribbean, where most of Guerra’s music is rooted, and an anthem of hope for a better life. Besides, access to electricity is vital. Indeed, electricity is no longer a luxury; rather, it’s a fundamental right. It powers our homes, fuels progress, and connects us globally. Just as coffee rain provides sustenance, electricity brings light, warmth, and opportunity. It’s a lifeline for rural communities, bridging gaps and enabling growth.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Image: Dominican Power Partner (DPP) in Los Minas, Santo Domingo, courtesy of AES Dominicana.

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Big shoutout to AES Dominicana for their amazing support and unwavering commitment...

During a rainy season day in 1990, the power of the Caribbean Sea was tangible along the Santo Domingo boardwalk, where it relentlessly battered against George Washington Avenue. The darkness enveloped the city entirely, but amidst it, it was possible to discern the lively chords of merengue resonating from afar. The illumination source emanated from a neighbouring grocery store, which relied on a compact generator to power its lights. The volume of the music was so pronounced that it created the illusion of a live performance, overpowering even the sound of the crashing waves from the sea. As the music persisted, a new song started playing: a renowned bachata by Juan Luis Guerra and his 4.40, featuring the globally recognised lyrics: "I hope it will rain coffee." The noise maintained its previous volume, serving as a welcome diversion from the stifling heat that surrounded the island. No one could resist swaying their hips to the beat of the music, almost as if it were a necessary response to the scorching heat. A scream can be heard in the distance, —coño— Pancho... The light is coming, as if the dear friend were not seeing the miracle that is life… 

Experiencing the phenomenon of —alumbrones— (the light coming), it may be Kafkaesque, but it is not. It is the production of electrical energy in the country. It was critical, if not non-existent, because of its precariousness. It’s because it evoked a profound sense of exhilaration and joy in individuals. When the electric light peeked out miserably. While the light was fleeting, it undoubtedly provided an unforgettable balsam bath. Thus, the scarcity of much-needed electricity in the Dominican Republic was evident.  In other words, that was the dark reality of La Hispaniola. With good intentions and hard work, everything can change.

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"A single image can communicate a multitude of messages. In this specific instance, the narrative resonates with a vast amount of light energy. In 1990, the country had an installed capacity of 1460 MW, which served a population of 7,118,000...

Courtesy of AES Dominicana.

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AES Dominicana has made a significant contribution to improving the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system by using a variety of fuels and renewable energy sources.

Since its inception in the region, AES has always been committed to making a significant contribution to the energy sector by prioritising the implementation of effective and sustainable changes that benefit all stakeholders.

In 2000, AES demonstrated its commitment to the sustainable growth of the Dominican Republic by establishing AES Andrés. The project included a 319 MW combined-cycle power plant, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal and a gas pipeline connecting to the DPP plant.

In the same year, AES also acquired the assets of GENER and a 25% stake in the ITABO S.A. power plant. In the following years, AES maintained its investment in the country by undertaking projects such as the conversion of gas turbines to natural gas and the acquisition of additional shares in ITABO S.A. These initiatives by AES have significantly improved the country's strategic energy position and reduced its dependence on oil derivatives for electricity generation.

In the 2010s, AES initiated the construction of AES Andrés 2000, a combined-cycle power plant that represents a significant advancement in the country's energy infrastructure. The company also launched the innovative Closing the Loop project at DPP. This initiative involved the installation of a steam turbine to improve operational efficiency and support environmental and social progress.

In 2017, AES successfully completed the Closing the Loop initiative at DPP, resulting in a significant increase in capacity and efficiency at the plant. This progress contributed significantly to the country's environmental and social development goals. AES Dominicana is proud of its remarkable journey and looks forward to continuing its efforts to promote sustainable energy solutions for a brighter future.

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The Bayasol project is a 50 MW solar power plant located in Matanzas, Dominican Republic, 12 km west of Bani in the province of Peravia. The project covers an area of 947,172.73 m2 and aims to produce clean electricity from renewable sources. The annual electricity production is 107,948 MWh, which is transmitted through underground medium voltage circuits insulated at 34.5 kV to a 138 kV substation. This substation houses a 60 MVA transformer that supplies energy to the Dominican Republic's National Interconnected Electric System (SENI). By using solar energy to generate electricity, the project reduces dependence on fossil fuel-based energy production. The project includes solar power plants, substations, the national grid and connected power plants.

Further details are subject to revision. The project will use solar energy to generate clean, renewable electricity, replacing electricity from fossil fuel-fired plants connected to the grid. The project will result in an annual greenhouse gas emission reduction of 64,287 tCO2e and 642,866 tCO2e over the ten-year crediting period. Image courtesy of AES Dominicana.

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The 50-MW Agua Clara wind farm developed by Inkia Energy Ltd in the Dominican Republic started operations this Tuesday, the office of the country’s president Danilo Medina announced.

The Agua Clara project, located on a 120-hectare (296.5 acres) site, required an investment of USD 103 million (EUR 91.3m). The farm is equipped with 25 wind turbines of 2 MW each, capable of producing an estimated 170 GWh per year. 

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Source media

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AES Dominicana Foundation…

AES Dominicana's focus is on the electrical sector, and its goal is to become integrated with the society of the Dominican Republic.

Since 2007, the AES Dominicana Foundation has accompanied the Dominican Republic in its sustainable development goals, addressing environmental, educational, health, entrepreneurial, and cultural needs as part of the orange economy.

In addition, the foundation has responded to national needs in emergencies and natural disasters. Haiti was struck by a catastrophic earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 on the Richter scale in 2010, resulting in the deaths of over 200,000 people and the displacement of more than two million. The Foundation was among the first international organisations to provide humanitarian aid, including medical assistance. Following the initial emergency aid, efforts were focused on restoring the country's fragile electrical system. The Foundation's solidarity led to its nomination as a finalist for the Platts Awards that year.

From the beginning, the Foundation has supported cultural and artistic initiatives within the orange economy, a sector endorsed by the Dominican Republic to cultivate talent. Since its establishment, the Foundation has played a significant role as a primary sponsor of the Trampoline Children's Museum in the Colonial City of Santo Domingo.

To date, the AES Dominicana Foundation, in partnership with Berklee College of Music, Itabo Electricity Generating Company, the Ministry of Culture, and the National Conservatory of Music, has awarded a total of forty scholarships for music studies at the prestigious Berklee College of Music in Boston. This incredible opportunity is key to significant personal growth for recipients.

By promoting art and culture, AES Dominicana is actively fuelling the growth of the creative economy in the Dominican Republic and nurturing the development of gifted individuals.

“Success that is not planned is merely a stroke of luck,” noted Edwin De los Santos. The pairing of AES Dominicana and Berklee creates a harmonious tune for the Dominican Republic. 

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Source media

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The AES Dominicana family is experiencing growth…

Since 2014, AES has implemented a long-term strategy to incorporate local partners to support the expansion and strengthening of the business and accompany the growth of the energy industry with a sustainability vision, both in the Dominican Republic and Panama.

"We derive immense value from partnering with strong local players who provide valuable support as we transition our businesses in both markets," said Juan Ignacio Rubiolo, executive vice president and president of AES's Energy Infrastructure Strategic Business Unit.

The first step began on September 3, 2014, when AES Dominicana forged a strategic partnership with local entities Estrella and Linda in New York. Estrella and Linda acquired a minority stake in the energy company.

Integrating Estrella and Linda into the AES Dominicana family is a strategic move and a powerful symbol of our shared vision and commitment. This alliance is not just about improving the electricity sector in the Dominican Republic but about ushering in a new era of national development across various productive industries.

The earnest dedication of the signatories to contribute to the resolution offers a promising perspective for the future of the energy sector in the Dominican Republic.

The collaboration between Estrella and Linda is a pivotal element of AES's comprehensive long-term growth strategy in the Dominican Republic. This strategy, presented to the Dominican Republic authorities in December 2012, is a testament to our steadfast commitment to the country's energy sector. It is a commitment to a secure and prosperous future for the Dominican Republic, underscoring our unwavering presence.

The signing ceremony was graced by key figures in the energy sector, including Andrés Gluski, the Global President and CEO of AES Corporation; Edwin De Los Santos, the President of AES Dominicana; Manuel Estrella, the President of Estrella; and Felix García, the President of Grupo Linda, who served as delegates for the new collaborators, symbolizing the unity and shared vision of all parties involved.

The AES Dominicana group's integration of ENANDON and API Popular marks not an end, but the commencement of a new and promising chapter in its continuing saga of success.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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The Coming Electricity Crisis…

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Notes from the editor: 

On this Good Friday, amidst the ongoing discussions among politicians regarding a possible conflict in developing nations, it is profoundly disheartening to observe how our avarice and inflexibility have obscured our discernment and diminished our empathy towards each other. 

On the 13th of this month, a popular blog published a thought-provoking article titled "How imminent is a worldwide electrical outage?"  The article highlighted the growing demand for power and the concerning deficit in energy supply faced by the United States.  In just a short time, the post has been read over 120,000 times and has sparked an enormous debate on Energy Central, with many experts weighing in with their opinions and sharing interesting facts on the topic.  

This article has also led to other debates and discussions on the issue, further highlighting the importance of the subject.  Today, the editorial board of WSJ published an article discussing the crisis in the electrical sector, adding to the ongoing conversation and bringing more attention to the matter. 

The growing potential for a widespread blackout is becoming more alarming as the pressure on the power grid intensifies. 

Many will claim this is madness; however, reality begs to differ. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a warning in their 2021 Electricity Market Report about a significant increase in global electricity consumption.  This warning came eight months before the Soviet gas squeeze left Europe in a serious supply restriction crisis and caused severe damage to the economy.  Last week, the Washington Post also issued a similar warning. 

It is imperative that the market notice this warning and examine its requirements to provide the necessary adaptations to accommodate the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources.  Regulatory frameworks must be updated and adjusted to the current surge in energy demand to facilitate a seamless transition to emerging technologies.  Achieving a successful market transition requires a delicate balance between sustainability, reliability, and affordability.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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Picture from an outside origin...

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“CERAWeek 2024 was a whirlwind of innovation, collaboration, and a renewed sense of urgency around the energy transition. I am excited to see the vision of the AES Corporation on the importance of Artificial Intelligence for the energy transition.  

From AI-powered grids seamlessly integrating renewables to AI applications to optimizing energy storage and distribution, the innovation in how we work using AI will revolutionize the energy landscape.

Renewables' exponential growth will be the fuel of the future. Scaling green solutions to meet global energy demands will be pivotal, and I am extremely proud that in 2023, The AES Corporation doubled the green capacity constructed compared to 2022, completing 3.5 GW of renewable projects. 

Artificial intelligence will enable us to accelerate the future and unlock the full potential of clean energy.

CERAWeek highlighted the importance of collaboration between governments, businesses, and innovators to accelerate progress; it was fabulous to meet with so many colleagues working to accelerate an energy transition, which encourages me that we are ready for a global response to the change of climate change. 

Together, we will accelerate the energy future by harnessing the power of renewables and AI and leveraging the talent and dedication of the AES Corporation people, said Bernerd Da Santos, AES Executive Vice President—President of Global Renewables / Green Hydrogen and CEO of AES Clean Energy.

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The looming threat of The Coming Electricity Crisis….

Artificial-intelligence data centers and climate rules are pushing the power grid to what could become a breaking point…

The Wall Street Journal's editorial team on March 28, 2024, adjusted by Germán & Co.

President Biden and the press keep raising alarms about a climate crisis that his policies can’t do much about. Yet in the meantime they’re ignoring how government climate policies are contributing to a looming electric-grid crisis that is more urgent and could be avoided.

For years about an electric-power shortage. And now grid regulators and utilities are ramping up warnings. Projections for U.S. electricity demand growth over the next five years have doubled from a year ago. The major culprits: New artificial-intelligence data centers, federally subsidized manufacturing plants, and the government-driven electric-vehicle transition.

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Georgia Power recently increased 17-fold its winter power demand forecast by 2031, citing growth in new industries such as EV and battery factories. AEP Ohio says new data centers and Intel’s $20 billion planned chip plant will increase strain on the grid. Chip factories and data centers can consume 100 times more power than a typical industrial business.

PJM Interconnection, which operates the wholesale power market across 13 Midwest and Northeast states, this year doubled its 15-year annual forecast for demand growth. Its projected power demand in the region for 2029 has increased by about 10 gigawatts—about twice as much as New York City uses on a typical day.

Don’t expect the power to come from New York, which is marching toward a power shortage as it shuts down nuclear and fossil-fuel power in favor of wind and solar. A new Micron chip factory in upstate New York is expected to require as much power by the 2040s as the states of New Hampshire and Vermont combined.

Electricity demand to power data centers is projected to increase by 13% to 15% compounded annually through 2030. Yet a shortage of power is already delaying new data centers by two to six years, according to commercial-real estate firm CBRE Group. It is also driving Big Tech companies into the energy business.

Amazon this month struck a $650 million deal to buy a data center in Pennsylvania powered by an on-site 2.5 gigawatt nuclear plant.

Data centers—like manufacturing plants—require reliable power around the clock year-round, which wind and solar don’t provide. Businesses can’t afford to wait for batteries to become cost-effective. Building transmission lines to connect distant renewables to the grid typically takes 10 to 12 years.

Because of these challenges, Obama Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz last week predicted that utilities will ultimately have to rely more on gas, coal and nuclear plants to support surging demand. “We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years,” he said. No kidding.

The problem is that utilities are rapidly retiring fossil-fuel and nuclear plants. “We are subtracting dispatchable [fossil fuel] resources at a pace that’s not sustainable, and we can’t build dispatchable resources to replace the dispatchable resources we’re shutting down,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner Mark Christie warned this month.

About 20 gigawatts of fossil-fuel power are scheduled to retire over the next two years—enough to power 15 million homes—including a large natural-gas plant in Massachusetts that serves as a crucial source of electricity in cold snaps. PJM’s external market monitor last week warned that up to 30% of the region’s installed capacity is at risk of retiring by 2030.

Some plants are nearing the end of their useful life-spans, but an onslaught of costly regulation is the bigger cause. A soon-to-be-finalized Environmental Protection Agency rule would require natural-gas plants to install expensive and unproven carbon capture technology.

The PJM report cites “the role of states and the federal government in subsidizing resources and in environmental regulation.” It added: “The simple fact is that the sources of new capacity that could fully replace the retiring capacity have not been clearly identified.”

Meantime, the Inflation Reduction Act’s huge renewable subsidies make it harder for fossil-fuel and nuclear plants to compete in wholesale power markets. The cost of producing power from solar and wind is roughly the same as from natural gas. But IRA tax credits can offset up to 50% of the cost of renewable operators.

Baseload plants can’t turn a profit operating only when needed to back up renewables, so they are closing. This was the main culprit for Texas’s week-long power outage in February 2021 and the eastern U.S.’s rolling blackouts during Christmas 2022.

The media will discover this problem eventually, though not this year if it might call into question Mr. Biden’s climate agenda. Perhaps they’ll notice when more blackouts arrive.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Big Tech is obsessed with finding enough energy and leaves no stone unturned. Bill Gates from Microsoft and Andrés Gluski from AES are leading the way…

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Tuesday thoughts at dawn…

A recent IPCC report highlights the urgency for immediate and intensified efforts to prevent severe long-term consequences of climate change. As fossil fuels still account for over 80% of global energy consumption, the energy sector must play a central role in addressing this issue.

The energy system is transitioning, with renewable energy generation experiencing rapid growth. The trend towards decarbonization is driven by decreasing costs and increasing investor interest. Decarbonizing the global energy system is a substantial undertaking, both in terms of scale and cost. Given the limited time available, there is a sense of urgency to act.

Transition efforts within the energy sector have predominantly focused on hardware, specifically the development of new low-carbon infrastructure to replace existing carbon-intensive systems. Limited attention and resources have been directed towards advanced digital technologies, specifically artificial intelligence (AI), which can serve as a crucial facilitator for the energy transition. The rapid adoption of this potent technology at larger scales surpasses the pace of integrating new hardware solutions.

Finally, acquiring the necessary permits for establishing new renewable capacity can be a prolonged and convoluted bureaucratic process, which can hinder this shift towards a more sustainable and eco-friendly energy production system. It is important to streamline the permit acquisition process to facilitate this transition.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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Artwork by Germán & Co

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Power needs, natural gas, and AI were the main topics of discussion at the CERAWeek debate.

From CERAweek BY CAT CLIFFORD AND AMENA H. SAIYID, SENIOR SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENTS, WASHINGTON D.C., MARCH 25, 2024.

The energy transition will occur at varying rates worldwide and will be further complicated by the growing demand for electricity from power-hungry data centres and increasing electrification.

Cheap and readily available natural gas will continue to be a critical bridge fuel for the foreseeable future until lower carbon technologies are scaled up and prices come down.

These were among the top takeaways from the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, hosted by S&P Global. The event, primarily dominated by fossil-fuel producers, has evolved to embrace cleaner energy.

The debate among the thousands gathered at the conference, considered the largest of its kind in the world, was driven by the tension between energy security, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and clean energy, whose commercialization aims to stave off the worsening impacts of climate change.

Highlights from Houston:

include the prevalence of AI at the conference, with discussions on both its opportunities and potential costs. Andrés Gluski, the CEO of The AES Corporation, a global renewable developer, suggested changing the company's name from AES to AIS due to the high demand for electricity to power energy-hungry data centres that drive artificial intelligence. Gluski also emphasised the operational efficiencies that AI can bring to AES.

"I am excited about AI because I believe it will make us more efficient, not only in operations but also in development - identifying the optimal locations for data centres and renewables," stated Gluski.

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Artwork by Germán & Co

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The AI boom is fueling an insatiable appetite for electricity, which is creating risks to the grid and the transition to cleaner energy sources…

The Wall Street Journal by Katherine Blunt and Jennifer Hiller, March 24, 2024, editions by Germán & Co.

HOUSTON—Every March, thousands of executives take over a downtown hotel here to reach oil and gas deals and haggle over plans to tackle climate change. This year, the dominant theme of the energy industry’s flagship conference was a new one: artificial intelligence.

Tech companies roamed the hotel’s halls in search of utility executives and other power providers. More than 20 executives from Amazon and Microsoft spoke on panels. The inescapable topic—and the cause of equal parts anxiety and excitement—was AI’s insatiable appetite for electricity.

It isn’t clear just how much electricity will be required to power an exponential increase in data centers worldwide. But most everyone agrees the data centers needed to advance AI will require so much power they could strain the power grid and stymie the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Bill Vass, vice president of engineering at Amazon Web Services, said the world adds a new data center every three days. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates told the conference that electricity is the key input for deciding whether a data center will be profitable and that the amount of power AI will consume is staggering.

“You go, ‘Oh, my God, this is going to be incredible,’” said Gates.

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Though there was no dispute at the conference, called CERAWeek by S&P Global, that AI requires massive amounts of electricity, what was less clear was where it is going to come from.

Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said the size of new and proposed data centers to power AI has some utilities stumped as to how they are going to bring enough generation capacity online at a time when wind and solar farms are becoming more challenging to build. He said utilities will have to lean more heavily on natural gas, coal and nuclear plants, and perhaps support the construction of new gas plants to help meet spikes in demand. 

“We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years. You’re kind of stuck,” he said. 

The complication is that companies don’t just want to add new power sources, but clean ones, too. Many tech companies and utilities have made commitments to dramatically reduce the carbon emissions they produce.

Dominion Energy, a utility company based in Richmond, Va., has seen a sharp uptick in electricity demand driven by a build-out of data centers in northern Virginia, which has long been home to a large concentration of such facilities. The company, which has set a goal to eliminate or offset its carbon emissions by 2050, expects to build at least one gas-fired power plant to support it.

“We’re going to be net-zero by 2050. We still absolutely believe that,” said CEO Robert Blue. “But the demand growth now makes that more complicated.”

After a long period of stagnant demand for electricity, utilities are dialing up forecasts by astonishing amounts. The five-year projection of U.S. electricity demand growth has doubled from a year ago, according to a report from consulting firm Grid Strategies.

The surge in AI-driven power demand comes as other factors converge to create new strain on the grid. A wave of manufacturing plants are being developed across the U.S., spurred by new tax policies under the Inflation Reduction Act, and many states are working to use more electric power for transportation, heat and heavy industry.

New data centers can be built faster than new power generation and there is already a supply crunch. Construction timelines for data centers have been extended by two to six years because of power-supply delays, according to commercial-real-estate services firm CBRE Group.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has set a goal to eliminate carbon emissions from the U.S. electricity sector by 2035. John Podesta, the president’s point person on implementing the Inflation Reduction Act, told reporters that burgeoning AI demands create new challenges in hitting that target, though federal models show it is still possible. 

“We’re putting the accelerator down on developing those clean resources,” he said.

Still, utilities and tech companies are discussing the need for more fossil fuel to support demand. Toby Rice, CEO of giant U.S. natural-gas producer EQT, said tech firms building data centers are inquiring about buying gas from EQT. Rice said he got the same two questions at the conference: “How fast can you guys move? How much gas can we get?”

According to Rice, tech companies need reliable power, which renewable sources such as wind and solar can’t always provide because of the vagaries of weather. And large-scale nuclear facilities, only one of which is under construction in the U.S., have historically been expensive and time-consuming to build.

“Tech is not going to wait seven to 10 years to get this infrastructure built,” Rice said in an interview. “That leaves you with natural gas.”

Southern Company, a utility company serving customers in Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, last year made a significant revision to its power-demand forecast in Georgia, largely driven by the build-out of data centers and other industrial activity. 

What solutions should big tech explore to meet the growing power needs of data centers? Join the conversation below.

The company now expects 6,600 megawatts of demand growth through the winter of 2030, 17 times greater than the previous forecast. Southern has proposed adding three new gas turbines at a power plant southwest of Atlanta.

“With this unprecedented demand, all resources have to be in the mix,” CEO Chris Womack said in an interview.

About a third of the world’s 8,000 data centers are in the U.S., but the build-out is a worldwide phenomenon. Globally, the International Energy Agency estimates that electricity consumption from data centers, AI and cryptocurrency could double by 2026.

A data center build-out is also under way in Japan and will test that country’s power resources, said Yukio Kani, CEO of JERA, Japan’s largest power provider. 

“It’s a very hungry caterpillar,” said Kani.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

Unleashing the colossal power of wind energy with the world's largest plane!

---

Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Thoughts on a Sunday in Extinction...

In March, Le Monde Diplomatique underscored several concerns. The esteemed French publication, known for its foresight, announced the resurgence of ISIS, affirming that indeed, the group has returned.

“The US is not finding it easy to stop Houthi attacks off Yemen; what is behind Sudan’s long and bloody civil war? ISIS is back, and it is not a spent force; Arab states’ abandonment of the Palestinians; China, new power, old order; will Russia’s war in Ukraine make it more dependent on China? Ukraine’s Hungarian community is slowly disappearing; international law, once a set of ideas, is now a real force; Rezső Kasztner, the man who saved Jews from Auschwitz; foreign doctors fight for a fair deal in France; climate, can we adapt to +4°C?”

On January 28 this year, this blog published: “The intention to trigger a worldwide conflict should be readily apparent…

The apparent collaboration between Hamas and other nations has enabled the exchange of significant resources, information, and expertise. Hamas is widely considered the cause of Israel's third occupation of the region, sparking international discourse. Furthermore, Hamas has also been linked to the ongoing Suez Canal crisis, resulting in significant diplomatic tensions extending beyond the Middle East. Around 1 million barrels of crude oil, 1.4 million barrels of gasoline, and other refined products are transported daily from the Middle East and Asia to Europe through this canal. In the past three weeks, authorities from several European countries, including Sweden, Finland, and Norway, have expressed concerns and warnings about a potential conflict with Russia. Escalating regional tensions have prompted these nations to openly voice their grave concerns about the potential military conflict with their neighbouring country to the east."

Why did ISIS-K target Moscow?

Perhaps the answer lies in considering the profound impact that surprise attacks have had throughout history. One notable example is the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey, which serves as a vivid illustration of the strategic deception necessary to breach Troy's formidable defenses.

Similarly, the stunning victory achieved by Hannibal, leader of Carthage, over a more formidable Roman army in the Battle of Cannae in 206 BC shocked the ancient world and underscored the potency of surprise tactics.  Moving forward in history, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 marked a pivotal turning point in World War II, showcasing the capacity of surprise assaults to reshape the course of conflict.  

Post-World War II, surprise attacks continued to shape global events, with China's unexpected involvement in the Korean War of 1950 catching United Nations forces off guard and prompting a reorganization of the Korean Peninsula.  Furthermore, Israel's utilization of surprise tactics during the Six-Day War of 1967 and the October War of 1973 underscored the enduring impact of strategic cunning in the face of threats from neighbouring countries.  

The tragic assault on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11th, 2001, and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic are stark reminders of the far-reaching consequences of unforeseen events, prompting societal shifts and unveiling deep-seated inequalities across the globe.

Finally, the jihadists mock President Vladomir Putin and urge him not to confuse their motives, while President Emmanuel Macron warns the Kremlin against entangling Ukraine in the aftermath of the terrorist attack.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...

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A rendering of the WindRunner aircraft. Designed by Radia, it would transport large wind turbine blades directly to wind farm sites. RADIA INC.

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Radia, a unicorn startup, plans to use rocket science to overcome one of the wind power industry’s biggest hurdles with a giant cargo plane…

From an article in the Wall Street Journal authored by Jennifer Hiller and Brian McGill and published on March 13, 2024, as part of the editions curated by Germán & Co.

An aerospace engineer proposes a giant plane for renewable energy revolution….

Mark Lundstrom, a rocket scientist trained at MIT and a Rhodes scholar, has dedicated over seven years collaborating with an expert engineering team in the intricate design process of the Windrunner. This revolutionary aircraft, once finalized, is poised to set a new benchmark as the longest and hold the title for having the largest cargo volume of any plane known to date.

The Windrunner, an innovative transportation solution, is specifically designed to carry wind turbine blades of exceptional lengths, comparable to football fields. These extraordinary blades, known as some of the longest globally, are predominantly utilized in offshore wind projects, primarily due to the logistical challenges faced in transporting them for onshore installations. Extending the reach of these immense turbines to vast land areas has the potential to transform the landscape of the wind energy industry.

The industry has observed a decrease in new onshore projects within the United States, coupled with price fluctuations in offshore projects. Due to these circumstances, land-based wind power installations are anticipated to showcase blade tips towering around 300 feet higher than the present average, equivalent to stacking the U.S. Capitol with the Washington Monument. These innovative projects hold the promise of producing nearly twice the amount of energy in comparison to existing onshore installations and could be viable in a broader array of locations.

The 3D model was created by Brian McGill/WSJ, with additional development by Peter Champelli/WSJ. The source of information is the company. Lundstrom's startup, Radia, located in Boulder, Colorado, has maintained the confidentiality of the design.

The Windrunner, anticipated to be 80 feet longer than the current largest military aircraft, is a colossal transport aircraft that boasts impressive dimensions. Stretching the length of a football field at 356 feet and towering 79 feet tall, this behemoth is tailored for the daunting task of transporting hefty wind turbine blades, a logistical puzzle on land. With a remarkable capacity of 80 tons, the Windrunner surpasses even the renowned Boeing 747 in both size and volume, making it the go-to choice for handling oversized cargo with unparalleled efficiency.

Lundstrom’s startup, Boulder, Colo.-based Radia, has kept the design private for years. Now, it says WindRunner is more than halfway through the eight years it estimates it will take to design, build and certify the aircraft.

Lundstrom founded Radia in 2016 as he looked for ways to marry aerospace with the energy transition when he read that delivering unwieldy blades is among the trickiest logistics jobs in the energy business.

“That was a very clear moment when the industry speaks to you,” Lundstrom said

The WindRunner would be the largest plane by length and cargo volume if completed. ILLUSTRATION: RADIA, INC.

Today’s offshore-sized wind blades can’t be used easily on land because they can’t move by rail or truck. They are too big to turn most corners and too wide to make it under bridges and traffic lights. Transporting them offshore requires specialized vessels. 

Radia has raised $104 million and is valued at $1 billion, according to PitchBook. Employees and advisers include current and former executives at Boeing, the Federal Aviation Administration, utilities and renewable energy developers. Backers include oil giant ConocoPhillips and venture firms Caruso Ventures, Capital Factory and Good Growth Capital.

Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, a member of Radia’s advisory board, said utilities are increasing their demand forecasts by huge factors. Electricity usage is surging because of the electrification of transportation and heating across much of the U.S., plus booms in manufacturing and in data centers for artificial intelligence.

“They also want clean electricity,” Moniz said.

Radia has raised $104 million and is valued at $1 billion, according to PitchBook. ILLUSTRATION: RADIA, INC.

Lundstrom plans to deliver blades for wind project developers and, in some instances, develop early stage projects on its own, though it doesn’t plan to own or operate the sites. 

The WindRunner includes shoulder-height tires and has the ability to land on a packed-dirt 6,000-foot runway, which would need to be built for each project. Lundstrom says projects would include about 25 of the supersize onshore turbines he envisions to be profitable.

Radia’s first customer is a large independent power producer that has bought a 1-gigawatt project in Nevada.

Bigger is better in wind. Larger blades can harvest more wind, while taller towers place blades where winds are more consistent. It adds up to more electricity over more hours of the day, even in areas with lower average wind speeds.

Radia estimates the larger turbines could reduce the cost of energy by up to 35% and increase the consistency of power generation by 20% compared with today’s onshore turbines.

Wind provided around 10% of large-scale electricity generation in the U.S. in 2022. It is a major source of electricity generation in the middle of the country, especially in Iowa, Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. 

Larger blades attached to taller towers would make wind more competitive everywhere while making more of the U.S. viable for wind development, said Jesse Jenkins, a professor at Princeton University who did a study for Radia as a consultant. But the larger towers would be visible to more people, which could stir community opposition.

“The biggest question mark is the social license and social acceptability,” Jenkins said.

The WindRunner would use existing technologies and components familiar to regulators, available through the existing aerospace supply chain, Lundstrom said. The company would use aircraft manufacturers to build the plane.

Rachel Kelley, former director of engineering at Boeing and Radia’s vice president of aircraft development, said the goal of the plane design was, “Do nothing new.” 

If building a new airplane sounds extreme, Kelley says other measures to move big blades are impractical. Blimps can’t land in windy conditions. Helicopters are more costly than airplanes, and flying with a dangling blade designed to catch wind would prove complex and dangerous. Skipping the logistics issue altogether and building mobile manufacturing on site would require temporary structures as big as football fields.

The plane would be able to fit one large, offshore-sized blade at a time, or it could carry as many as four shorter blades. Lundstrom also thinks it has other uses for moving large equipment for the military or oil-and-gas industry.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---