News round-up, Wednesday, February 15, 2023
Quote of the day…
"Of course, the loss of the European market is a very serious test for Russia in the gas aspect," Yury Shafranik, Russian fuel and energy minister from 1993 to 1996, told Reuters.
Reuters by Vladimir SoldatkinNow, a team at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital has developed an artificial intelligence-based method to screen currently available medications as possible treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.
By MGH News and Public Affairs March 4, 2021 Research"Downside risks are apparent and may include further geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe, China's ongoing domestic challenges amid the pandemic, and potential spillovers from China's still fragile real estate sector," OPEC said.
Reuter by Alex LawlerInvestigation#StoryKillers. 'Le Monde' and its media partners were able to identify thousands of accounts on social media controlled by 'Team Jorge,' and to analyze its fake information campaigns.
Le Monde by Damien Leloup and Florian Reynaud, Published on February 15, 2023“There has been an expectation that it will go away quickly and painlessly — and I don’t think that’s at all guaranteed,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event last week. “The base case for me is that it will take some time, and we’ll have to do more rate increases, and then we’ll have to look around and see whether we’ve done enough.”
NYT by Jeanna SmialekMost read…
Moscow's decades-old gas ties with Europe lie in ruins
After President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine began almost a year ago, a combination of Western sanctions and Russia's decision to cut supplies to Europe drastically reduced the country's energy exports.
SOURCE: REUTERS BY VLADIMIR SOLDATKINOPEC raises 2023 oil demand growth view, points to tighter market
"Key to oil demand growth in 2023 will be the return of China from its mandated mobility restrictions and the effect this will have on the country, the region and the world," OPEC said in the report.
"Concern hovers around the depth and pace of the country's economic recovery and the consequent impact on oil demand.”
Reuter by Alex LawlerBillionaires, whistleblowers, criminals, political opponents: The targets of the disinformation factory
Le Monde by Damien Leloup and Florian ReynaudInflation Cooled Just Slightly, With Worrying Details
Consumer Price Index inflation has been slowing compared with a year ago, but evidence is mounting that it could be a long road back to normal.
NYT by Jeanna Smialek, Feb. 14, 2023
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What is Artificial Intelligency?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.
Source: Europeanscientist.comAI and Alzheimer's Disease
AI reveals current drugs that may help combat Alzheimer’s disease
Now, a team at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital has developed an artificial intelligence-based method to screen currently available medications as possible treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.
By MGH News and Public Affairs March 4, 2021 ResearchNew treatments for Alzheimer’s disease are desperately needed, but numerous clinical trials of investigational drugs have failed to generate promising options.
Now, a team at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital has developed an artificial intelligence-based method to screen currently available medications as possible treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.
The method could represent a rapid and inexpensive way to repurpose existing therapies into new treatments for this progressive, debilitating neurodegenerative condition. It could also help reveal new, unexplored targets for therapy by pointing to mechanisms of drug action.
“Repurposing FDA-approved drugs for Alzheimer’s disease is an attractive idea that can help accelerate the arrival of effective treatment, but unfortunately, even for previously approved drugs, clinical trials require substantial resources, making it impossible to evaluate every drug in patients with Alzheimer’s disease,” said Artem Sokolov, HMS instructor in biomedical informatics in the Blavatnik Institute and director of informatics and modeling in the Laboratory of Systems Pharmacology at HMS. “We therefore built a framework for prioritizing drugs, helping clinical studies to focus on the most promising ones.”
In an article published on Feb. 15 in Nature Communications, Sokolov and colleagues describe their framework, called DRIAD, or Drug Repurposing In AD, which relies on machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence in which systems are “trained” on vast amounts of data and “learn” to identify telltale patterns, augmenting researchers’ and clinicians’ decision-making.
DRIAD works by measuring what happens to human brain neural cells when treated with a drug. The method then determines whether the changes induced by a drug correlate with molecular markers of disease severity.
The approach also allowed the researchers to identify drugs that had protective as well as damaging effects on brain cells.
“We also approximate the directionality of such correlations, helping to identify and filter out neurotoxic drugs that accelerate neuronal death instead of preventing it,” said co-first author Steve Rodriguez, HMS instructor in neurology at Mass General.
DRIAD also allows researchers to examine which proteins are targeted by the most promising drugs and whether there are common trends among the targets, an approach designed by Clemens Hug, an HMS associate in therapeutic science in the Laboratory of Systems Pharmacology and a co-first author of the paper.
The team applied the screening method to 80 FDA-approved and clinically tested drugs for a wide range of conditions. The analysis yielded a ranked list of candidates, with several anti-inflammatory drugs used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and blood cancers emerging as top contenders.
These drugs belong to a class of medications known as Janus kinase inhibitors. The drugs work by blocking the action of inflammation-fueling Janus kinase proteins, suspected to play a role in Alzheimer’s disease and known for their role in autoimmune conditions. The team’s analyses also pointed to other potential treatment targets for further investigation.
“We are excited to share these results with the academic and pharmaceutical research communities. Our hope is that further validation by other researchers will refine the prioritization of these drugs for clinical investigation,” said Mark Albers, HMS assistant professor of neurology at Mass General and a faculty member of the Laboratory of Systems Pharmacology at HMS.
One of these drugs, baricitinib, will be investigated by Albers in a clinical trial for patients with subjective cognitive complaints, mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer’s disease that will be launching soon at Mass General and at Holy Cross Health in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “In addition, independent validation of the nominated drug targets could provide new insights into the mechanisms behind Alzheimer’s disease and lead to novel therapies,” said Albers, who is also associate director of the Massachusetts Center for Alzheimer Therapeutic Science at Mass General.
This work was supported by the National Institute on Aging, CART fund, and Harvard Catalyst Program for Faculty Development and Diversity Inclusion.
Rodriguez, Albers, and Sokolov are inventors on a patent application for novel targets in neurodegenerative diseases. Additional ethics declarations for all authors involved in the study appear in the publication.
Ernesto Cardenal’s Prayer for Marilyn Monroe
She hungered for love and we offered her tranquilizers.
For her despair, because we’re not saints psychoanalysis was recommended to her...
Image: Germán & CoMoscow's decades-old gas ties with Europe lie in ruins
After President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine began almost a year ago, a combination of Western sanctions and Russia's decision to cut supplies to Europe drastically reduced the country's energy exports.
Source: Reuters by Vladimir SoldatkinTodayNOVY URENGOY, Russia, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Meticulously crafted over decades as a major revenue stream for the Kremlin, Moscow's gas trade with Europe is unlikely to recover from the ravages of military conflict.
After President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine began almost a year ago, a combination of Western sanctions and Russia's decision to cut supplies to Europe drastically reduced the country's energy exports.
The latest sanctions, including price caps, are likely to disrupt oil trade further but it is easier to find new markets for crude and refined products than for gas.
Russia's gas trade with Europe has been based on thousands of miles of pipes beginning in Siberia and stretching to Germany and beyond. Until last year, they locked Western buyers into a long-term supply relationship.
"Of course, the loss of the European market is a very serious test for Russia in the gas aspect," Yury Shafranik, Russian fuel and energy minister from 1993 to 1996, told Reuters.
A former senior manager at Gazprom (GAZP.MM) was more direct.
"The work of hundreds of people, who for decades built the exporting system, now has been flushed down the toilet," the former manager told Reuters on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.
Current employees, however, say it is business as usual.
"Nothing has changed for us. We had a pay rise twice last year," a Gazprom's official, who is not authorised to speak to press, told Reuters in Novy Urengoy. The Arctic city is often referred to as Russia's "gas capital" because it was built to serve the biggest gas fields.
'STATE WITHIN A STATE'
The state gas export giant Gazprom, which has offices there, was formed in the dying days of the Soviet Union in 1989 under the Ministry of Gas Industry, headed by Viktor Chernomyrdin.
"Chernomyrdin never allowed anyone to put his nose into Gazprom. It was a state within a state, and remains so to an extent," Shafranik said.
Since the military operation began on Feb. 24 last year, less information has been available.
Like many Russian companies, Gazprom stopped disclosing details of its financial results.
According to Reuters' estimates, based on export fees and export volumes data, Gazprom's revenues from overseas sales were around $3.4 billion in January down from $6.3 billion in the same period last year.
The figures, combined with forecasts of exports and average gas prices, imply Gazprom's exporting revenues will almost halve this year, widening the $25 billion budget deficit Russia posted in January.
Already, the company's natural gas exports last year almost halved to reach a post-Soviet low and the downward trend has continued this year.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen estimated Russia cut 80% of gas supplies to the EU in the eight months after the conflict began in Ukraine.
As a result, Russia supplied only around 7.5% of western Europe's gas needs by the end of last year, compared with around 40% in 2021.
Before the conflict, Russia had been confident of selling more to Europe, not less.
Elena Burmistrova, the head of Gazprom's exporting unit, told an industry event in Vienna in 2019 the company's record-high exports outside Soviet Union of more than 200 billion cubic metres (bcm) achieved in 2018 were the "new reality".
Last year, the total was just above 100 bcm.
Russia's transporting capacities were undermined last year after mysterious blasts in the Baltic Sea at the Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany. Russia and the West blamed each other for the blasts.
Pulitzer Prize-winning U.S. reporter Seymour Hersh in a blog said the United States was responsible, which the United States said was 'utterly false'.
Washington has long criticised Germany's policy of reliance on Russian energy, which until last year, Berlin had said was a means to improve relations.
THE DEAL OF THE 20TH-CENTURY
For his part, Putin had been seeking to diversify Russia's gas markets long before last year, but the policy has gathered momentum.
In October, he mooted an idea of a gas hub in Turkey to divert the Russian gas flows from the Baltic Sea and North-West Europe.
Russia is also seeking to boost its pipeline gas sales to China, the world's largest energy consumer and top buyer of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal.
Supplies began via the Power of Siberia Pipeline in late 2019 and Russia aims to raise the annual exports to around 38 bcm from 2025.
Moscow also has an agreement with Beijing for another 10 bcm per year from a yet-to-be built pipeline from the Pacific island of Sakhalin, while Russia is also developing plans for Power of Siberia 2 from Western Siberia, which in theory could supply an additional 50 bcm per year to China.
Whether that relationship can be as lucrative as the decades of supplying gas to Europe remains to be seen.
Gazprom's most important assets are located in West Siberia and in the wider Arctic Yamal region, where the 100,000-strong city of Novy Urengoy, which celebrates its 50th-anniversary in 2025, houses seasonal workers in utilitarian, high-rise blocks.
One of the fields in the tundra area, around 3,500 kilometres (2,175 miles) northeast of Moscow, where they work is Urengoy.
Following the discovery of the field, which is among the world's largest in 1966, the Soviet Politburo began talks with Western Germany on exchanging gas for pipes, as Russia then lacked production technology.
The resulting agreement, dubbed the "contract of the century" was finalised in 1970 after the then Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, nicknamed "Mr Nyet" in the West for his uncompromising approach, said "da" to the gas-for-pipes deal, which involved supplies of heavy equipment for Moscow as well as gas for Europe.
The 20-year supply deal is worth about $30 billion in current gas prices.
It meant that for decades, Europe and, especially Germany, benefited from relatively cheap, long-term contracts, and relied on Russian natural gas, or methane, for heating households and as a feedstock for the petrochemical industry.
COMPLEX NEGOTIATIONS AHEAD
The negotiations with China on new gas sales are expected to be complex, not least because China is not expected to need additional gas until after 2030, industry analysts said.
Russia also faces far more competition than in the past from renewable energy as the world seeks to limit the impact of climate change, as well as rival pipeline gas supplies to China, including from Turkmenistan.
LNG, which can be shipped anywhere in the world, has further reduced the need for pipeline gas.
Gazprom and China have kept their agreed gas price a secret. Ron Smith, analyst at Moscow-based BCS brokerage, expected the price for 2022 to average $270 per 1,000 cubic metres, much lower than prices in Europe.
It is also below Gazprom's export price of $700 per 1,000 cubic metres, expected by Russian Economy Ministry this year.
Last year, Russia's energy finances, which are not broken down publicly into oil and gas, were supported by the market impact of fears of shortage.
In Europe, gas prices hit record levels and international oil prices shortly after the special military operation began spiked close to their all-time high.
Since then, prices for gas and oil have eased and Western price caps introduced in December and early this year are designed to erode Russia's revenues further.
The Kremlin meanwhile has set Gazprom the mammoth task of building 24,000 kilometres of new pipelines to provide gas for 538,000 households and apartments in Russia from 2021 to 2025.
Domestic gas prices are regulated by the government and there have been discussions about liberalising the gas market, a sensitive issue for Russian households.
Back in Novy Urengoy, where temperatures fall to as low as almost minus 50 Celsius (minus 58 Fahrenheit), Achimgaz, a joint venture between Gazprom and Germany's Wintershall Dea (WINT.UL), also has offices and the flag of Austrian energy company OMV (OMVV.VI) flaps outside an administrative building.
Asked about its presence there, an OMV spokesperson said only the building housed offices of the operator of the Yuzhno-Russkoye field, where the company has a stake.
OMV in March scrapped plans to take a stake in a Gazprom gas field project, while Wintershall Dea, in which BASF (BASFn.DE) holds just under 73% percent, said last month it was pulling out of Russia.
The Gazprom official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the company will regret that.
"We will just have to use more gas for our domestic households instead of exporting it to Europe. China also needs gas," the official said.
Source:https: Wibestbroker.comOPEC raises 2023 oil demand growth view, points to tighter market
"Downside risks are apparent and may include further geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe, China's ongoing domestic challenges amid the pandemic, and potential spillovers from China's still fragile real estate sector," OPEC said.
Reuter by Alex LawlerLONDON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - OPEC has raised its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast in its first upward revision for months, due to China's relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, and trimmed supply forecasts for Russia and other non-OPEC producers, pointing to a tighter market.
Global oil demand will rise this year by 2.32 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Tuesday in a monthly report.
The projection is 100,000 bpd higher than last month's forecast.
A tighter supply and demand balance could support oil prices that have held relatively steady since December and stand at a little less than $86 a barrel. OPEC had kept its 2023 demand growth forecast steady for the past two months after a series of downgrades as the economic outlook worsened.
"Key to oil demand growth in 2023 will be the return of China from its mandated mobility restrictions and the effect this will have on the country, the region and the world," OPEC said in the report.
"Concern hovers around the depth and pace of the country's economic recovery and the consequent impact on oil demand."
OPEC expects Chinese demand to grow by 590,000 bpd in 2023, up from last month's forecast of 510,000 bpd. China's oil consumption dropped for the first time in years in 2022, held back by its COVID containment measures.
The OPEC report was upbeat on economic prospects, nudging up its 2023 global growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.5%, though it said that a relative slowdown remained evident and cited high inflation and expected further increases to interest rates.
Other upside factors are the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will manage a soft landing for the U.S. economy and further commodity price weakness, OPEC said, although various potentially negative factors persist.
OUTPUT CUTS
"Downside risks are apparent and may include further geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe, China's ongoing domestic challenges amid the pandemic, and potential spillovers from China's still fragile real estate sector," OPEC said.
Oil was down more than $1, moving towards $85, after the report was released.
The report also showed that OPEC's crude oil production fell in January after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged output cuts to support the market.
For November last year, with prices weakening, OPEC+ agreed to a 2 million bpd reduction in its output target - the largest since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. OPEC's share of the cut is 1.27 million bpd.
In the report, OPEC said its crude oil output in January fell by 49,000 bpd to 28.88 million bpd as declines in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran offset increases elsewhere.
OPEC also lowered its forecast of 2023 growth in supply from producers outside the group to 1.4 million bpd, from 1.5 million bpd last month, citing lower expectations from Russia and the United States.
Russia said last week it will cut oil production by 500,000 bpd in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products over its invasion of Ukraine.
OPEC, which was already forecasting a decline in Russian output in 2023, said in the report it now expected Russian production to fall by 900,000 bpd this year, down from a decline of 850,000 bpd expected last month.
With non-OPEC supply lower and demand growth higher, the report raised its estimate of the amount of crude OPEC needs to pump in 2023 to balance the market by 200,000 bpd to 29.4 million bpd - about 500,000 more than OPEC pumped in January.
Image: Germán & CoBillionaires, whistleblowers, criminals, political opponents: The targets of the disinformation factory
Investigation#StoryKillers. 'Le Monde' and its media partners were able to identify thousands of accounts on social media controlled by 'Team Jorge,' and to analyze its fake information campaigns.
Le Monde by Damien Leloup and Florian Reynaud, Published on February 15, 2023Everyone and anyone can be a target for the disinformation campaigns that rich clients have paid handsomely to hire the services of " Team Jorge," this discreet Israeli operative whose infrastructure Le Monde and its media partners, coordinated by Forbidden Stories, were able to analyze. At the heart of its operational tools are the "AIMS" (for "Advanced impact media solutions"), a network of 30,000 highly sophisticated fake profiles on Twitter, Facebook and Reddit, used to spread false information. These profiles target businessmen, politicians, whistleblowers and crime suspects all over the world. Here is an overview of some of the main targets of these disinformation mercenaries.
#StoryKillers: Investigation into the disinformation machine
For several months, 20 different media outlets, including Le Monde, worked with the Forbidden Stories consortium to investigate companies that specialize in the manipulation of public opinion and the dissemination of fake news. Within the framework of this project called #StoryKillers, three journalists from the consortium posed as intermediaries for a potential French client in order to set up meetings with operatives selling "turnkey" influence tools.
This investigation revealed the existence of "Team Jorge", an extremely discreet Israeli company that claims to have interfered in dozens of elections around the world. It offers its clients an arsenal of illegal services, from hacking into e-mail accounts and private messaging systems to the massive dissemination of influence campaigns thanks to a gigantic network of fake accounts on social networks.
Target: Peter Nygard, Canadian billionaire accused of multiple sex crimes
Who is he? Peter Nygard, who made his fortune in fashion, has been accused by multiple women, some of them minors at the time, of sexual assault or rape – accusations that have been corroborated by multiple pieces of evidence, according to the FBI. In early 2020, Team Jorge launched a massive online influencer campaign to put the case at the top of the media agenda. Nygard has been in prison since December 2020, awaiting trial.
The modus operandi: The avatar network was used to widely distribute links to an attack site, Nygardrapestories.com, now offline, containing numerous articles accusing the billionaire. Dozens of fake accounts were also used to call out journalists, stars and partners of Peter Nygard's companies on the accusations against him; part of the campaign specifically targeted Oprah Winfrey, the famous American anchorwoman, who had devoted a segment to the billionaire in the 1990s, long before the first accusations emerged, to encourage her to publicly accuse the billionaire.
Effectiveness: Moderate. Nygard had already, since at least 2018, been in the crosshairs of justice in the United States and Canada, but the campaign seems to have attracted attention – a Newsweek article on the subject included several tweets from the campaign.
The suspected Team Jorge clients: Among the possible clients is another billionaire, American Louis Bacon. The revelations of several women accusing Nygard were encouraged by Bacon, who funded their travel to testify and hired private investigators to probe the case. The two billionaires have been in open conflict for years, amidst neighborhood feuds in the Bahamas, where they both own luxurious adjoining properties. Bacon's lawyers did not respond when contacted.
Target: Xavier Justo, Swiss whistleblower
Who is he? In 2015, Xavier Justo, a Swiss banker working in Malaysia, had lifted the veil on what would become the "1MDB" corruption scandal. His revelations would contribute to the 2018 electoral defeat of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who was directly implicated in the embezzlement case.
The modus operandi: At the end of 2020, a website and a YouTube channel usurping the identity of Justo went up online. They presented him as someone only in it for the money, whose word was not reliable and recycled confessions of the Swiss banker, obtained according to him under duress when he had been arrested in Thailand shortly after his revelations. This site and this channel were then widely distributed on social media, by the network of avatars of Team Jorge, as part of a larger operation of defamation, calling Justo a thief, a drug addict, a blackmailer...
Effectiveness: Unknown. The precise purpose of the campaign remains unclear.
The suspected Team Jorge clients: Several figures involved in the 1MDB scandal may have had a motivation to try to discredit Justo, starting with former Prime Minister Najib Razak, but as of the date of this campaign, he was in jail. Chinese-Malaysian businessman Jho Low, a key figure in the scandal and still on the run today, may also have had an interest in taking on the whistleblower.
Targets: Far-right activists British Tommy Robinson and American Lisa Barbounis
Who are they? Tommy Robinson is a well-known activist from the English far right, specializing in Islamophobic gatherings and conspiracy theories, founder of the pressure group English Defense League and who has been convicted by the courts on several occasions. American Lisa Barbounis is a former employee of the Middle East Forum (MEF), an ultraconservative think tank and supporter of Tommy Robinson. In 2019, she spent a long time in England participating in the campaign to support the activist.
The modus operandi: In mid-July 2021, avatars controlled by Team Jorge publish dozens of messages attacking Robinson and Barbounis. Robinson was designated, on rather factual grounds and often with the help of legitimate articles published by the general press, as a far-right activist. Barbounis, on the other hand, was accused of being an "influence agent" close to Russia, and the campaign focused on her new job as an advisor to a Texas congressman, half-heartedly accusing her of being a spy for Vladimir Putin. The campaign has also widely disseminated accusations, from the Daily Mail, which cited a Middle East Forum lawsuit against Barbounis, accusing her of having an extramarital affair with a Robinson lieutenant, and of embezzling money from the Middle East Forum to buy cocaine, among other things.
Effectiveness: None. The campaign seems to have had no resonance of any magnitude.
The suspected Team Jorge clients: The campaign bears all the hallmarks of an internal score-settling within Anglo-American far-right circles. In 2019, Barbounis filed a complaint, along with three other women, against the MEF, accusing its director of sexual harassment, among other things. These complaints, like the one filed by MEF against Barbounis, ended in dismissals. The MEF denies knowledge of any influence campaign about this issue.
Target: Tomas Zeron, former Mexican police official
Who is he? Tomas Zeron de Lucio is an ex-police figure in Mexico. A former member of the Mexico State Attorney's Office, from 2013 to 2016 he was the director of the Agencia de Investigacion Criminal (AIC), a then newly created administrative body responsible for centralizing federal criminal investigations. In 2016, Zeron resigned during a scandal surrounding his handling of the investigation into the scandal of the 43 missing students from Ayotzinapa in 2014. Suspected of evidence tampering and torture, an Interpol international arrest warrant was issued against him and he currently lives in Israel.
The modus operandi: During the summer of 2020, some 40 Twitter accounts and several Facebook accounts attributed to Team Jorge began posting articles and videos painting an embellished depiction of Zeron, presenting him as a competent investigator who had worked effectively against organized crime and being the victim of a political cabal. Some avatars claimed that no arrest warrant had been issued against the former police officer, arguing that his red notice was missing from the Interpol website. At least one article that may have been written directly on behalf of Team Jorge and published online in June 2020 sang the praises of the former AIC director and claimed that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ("AMLO") had been corrupted by Mexican cartels and was waging a political campaign against former investigators and in particular Zerón.
Effectiveness: Likely zero. Articles created directly on behalf of the campaign did not resonate on social media outside of the fake accounts run by the AIMS network.
The suspected Team Jorge clients: The first likely backer of the campaign is Zeron himself, first of all because it is entirely dedicated to singing the praises of the former investigator and attacking President AMLO, presented as the source of the prosecution against him. Most importantly, Zeron also has ties to the Israeli cybersecurity industry, as the agency he headed is accused of having purchased a license for Pegasus spyware, developed by the company NSO. His lawyers claim that he "is not responsible for any publicity campaign in his favor".
Target: Alexander Zingman and Vitali Fishman, Belarusian businessmen
Who are they? The Belarusian businessman Alexander Zingman, reputedly close to autocratic leader Alexander Lukashenko, has been very active in Africa for the past two decades, and more particularly in Zimbabwe, where he is honorary consul. He was one of the architects of a series of trade agreements that directly benefited Lukashenko's son.
The modus operandi: In early summer 2020, fake Facebook and Twitter accounts belonging to the AIMS network were used to publish a series of posts, in Russian and English, touting Zingman's business talent. The messages highlighted the success of the electric buses he produces or thanked him for bringing humanitarian aid to Zimbabwe after Cyclone Idai in 2019. A parallel campaign violently attacked another Belarusian national: Vitali Fishman, also close to the Lukashenko regime. The two men, both suspected of being linked to arms trafficking in Africa, were at the time fighting.
Effectiveness: Hard to estimate. In 2021, Zingman was briefly detained in the Democratic Republic of Congo on suspicion of arms trafficking, then released without charge. AIMS were likely not the only tool used in this conflict. In January 2022, Mr. Fishman filed a complaint in the United States, claiming to be the target of a massive online smear campaign. The sites and social media accounts mentioned in the complaint are directly linked to the architecture of fake Team Jorge accounts.
The suspected Team Jorge clients: The fact that the same network touted Zingman while attacking one of his rivals makes him a possible customer. Both Fishman and Zingman have longstanding connections in Israeli ultraconservative circles and cyber industry. When contacted by Le Monde, Zingman denies having ever used fake account or fake news services, and explains that he himself has been the target of several disinformation campaigns.
Target: California Governor Gavin Newsom
Who is he? The Governor of California since 2018, former mayor of San Francisco and a heavyweight in the US Democratic Party.
The modus operandi: In September 2022, in the home stretch of the election campaign during which Gavin Newsom was running for a second term, dozens of fake Twitter and Facebook accounts, claiming to be those of environmental advocates, attacked the governor's energy policy. In particular, they criticized him for refusing to develop more nuclear power – California only has one nuclear power plant, in Diablo Canyon, whose license was narrowly renewed because of seismic risks. A petition attacked Newsom's alleged inaction as California's crumbling power grid suffered frequent blackouts.
Efficiency: Moderate. The petition garnered several thousand signatures but did not appear to have had a tangible impact on state energy policy.
The suspected Team Jorge clients: The timing of the fake accounts' activity is intriguing; they primarily posted in the summer of 2022, during the home stretch of the California gubernatorial campaign. But by then, the only openly pro-nuclear candidate, "eco-modernist" Michael Shellenberger, was out of the race – he came in third in the Democratic primary in early June with 4.1% of the votes. And the Diablo Canyon plant has already received an extension. Another possible avenue is plant builders – the avatars specifically touted the benefits of molten salt reactors, a technology mastered by only a handful of companies.
Target: Cryptocurrency companies Binance and Nexo
Who are they? Binance is the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange company. It allows you to trade bitcoin, ethereum and other cryptoassets for traditional currencies. Nexo is a cryptocurrency collateralized lending company, which also operates its own stablecoin (a cryptocurrency backed by collateral, an asset or fiat currency), also known as nexo.
The modus operandi: On September 5, 2022, Binance announced that it would now automatically convert a number of stablecoins into its own stablecoin binance. The decision was deemed anti-competitive by the issuers of the affected stablecoins, including Nexo. In the following days, avatars from the AIMS fake account network published dozens of messages attacking Binance's decision and its CEO. At the same time, other avatars posted elaborate exchanges claiming that Nexo was a forward-looking company with safe products, and claiming that the US court's prosecution of the company for investment law violations was a conspiracy by competitors.
Effectiveness: Low. Binance has not reversed its decision and investigations continue against Nexo. The company's stablecoin price has more or less stabilized. While the campaign was quite elaborate in its rhetoric, it also made some gross errors, such as misspelling the Twitter account of Binance's boss.
The suspected Team Jorge clients: The campaign primarily benefited Nexo, but could have been the work of a major investor in the company's stablecoin, or even Team Jorge itself. The Israeli operative has claimed to sometimes use its avatars to influence the price of crypto-currencies. Nexo insists it has "never used any such services. It would be unimaginable that a company with several million users, managing billions of euros in funds, and with dozens of regulatory licenses would use such services."
Image: NYTInflation Cooled Just Slightly, With Worrying Details
Consumer Price Index inflation has been slowing compared with a year ago, but evidence is mounting that it could be a long road back to normal.
NYT by Jeanna Smialek, Feb. 14, 2023WASHINGTON — Inflation has slowed from its painful 2022 peak but remains uncomfortably rapid, data released Tuesday showed, and the forces pushing prices higher are proving stubborn in ways that could make it difficult to wrestle cost increases back to the Federal Reserve’s goal.
The Consumer Price Index climbed by 6.4 percent in January compared with a year earlier, faster than economists had forecast and only a slight slowdown from 6.5 percent in December. While the annual pace of increase has cooled from a peak of 9.1 percent in summer 2022, it remains more than three times as fast as was typical before the pandemic.
And prices continued to increase rapidly on a monthly basis as a broad array of goods and services, including apparel, groceries, hotel rooms and rent, became more expensive. That was true even after stripping out volatile food and fuel costs.
Taken as a whole, the data underlined that while the Federal Reserve has been receiving positive news that inflation is no longer accelerating relentlessly, it could be a long and bumpy road back to the 2 percent annual price gains that used to be normal. Prices for everyday purchases are still climbing at a pace that risks chipping away at economic security for many households.
“We’re certainly down from the peak of inflation pressures last year, but we’re lingering at an elevated rate,” said Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives. “The road back to 2 percent is going to take some time.”
Stock prices sank in the hours after the report, and market expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates above 5 percent in the coming months increased slightly. Central bankers have already lifted borrowing costs from near zero a year ago to above 4.5 percent, a rapid-fire adjustment meant to slow consumer and business demand in a bid to wrestle price increases under control.
But the economy has so far held up in the face of the central bank’s campaign to slow it down. Growth did cool last year, with the rate-sensitive housing market pulling back and demand for big purchases like cars waning, but the job market has remained strong and wages are still climbing robustly.
That could help to keep the economy chugging along into 2023. Consumption overall had shown signs of slowing meaningfully, but it may be poised for a comeback. Economists expect retail sales data scheduled for release on Wednesday to show that spending climbed 2 percent in January after falling 1.1 percent in December, based on estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
Signs of continued economic momentum could combine with incoming price data to convince the Fed that it needs to do more to bring inflation fully under control, which could entail pushing rates higher than expected or leaving them elevated for longer. Central bankers have been warning that the process of wrangling cost increases might prove bumpy and difficult.
Inflation F.A.Q.
What is inflation?
Inflation is a loss of purchasing power over time, meaning your dollar will not go as far tomorrow as it did today. It is typically expressed as the annual change in prices for everyday goods and services such as food, furniture, apparel, transportation and toys.
What causes inflation?
It can be the result of rising consumer demand. But inflation can also rise and fall based on developments that have little to do with economic conditions, such as limited oil production and supply chain problems.
Is inflation bad?
It depends on the circumstances. Fast price increases spell trouble, but moderate price gains can lead to higher wages and job growth.
How does inflation affect the poor?
Inflation can be especially hard to shoulder for poor households because they spend a bigger chunk of their budgets on necessities like food, housing and gas.
Can inflation affect the stock market?
Rapid inflation typically spells trouble for stocks. Financial assets in general have historically fared badly during inflation booms, while tangible assets like houses have held their value better.
“There has been an expectation that it will go away quickly and painlessly — and I don’t think that’s at all guaranteed,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event last week. “The base case for me is that it will take some time, and we’ll have to do more rate increases, and then we’ll have to look around and see whether we’ve done enough.”
A broad range of products and services kept inflation elevated in January: Pricier hotels, car insurance and vehicle repairs all contributed to the increase in the overall index.
Some goods, including used cars and clothing for women, dropped in price on a monthly basis. Even so, the slowdown for some physical products was less pronounced than it had been. Price increases for overall apparel accelerated, for instance.
Moderating price increases for goods and commodities have driven the overall inflation slowdown in recent months. Fed officials have embraced the cool-down but have also warned that it may not continue, because it has come as pandemic disruptions faded and tangled supply chains unsnarled.
“Supply chains can’t recover twice,” Lorie Logan, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said in a speech on Tuesday.
Pre-owned vehicles offer a good example of why the drag from falling prices for some goods may prove temporary. Used-car prices have been declining back to normal thanks to lagging demand and rebounding supply, and that has been helping to subtract from overall price increases. But used-car costs are already beginning to pick up again at a wholesale level, which suggests that the trend is unlikely to last indefinitely.
That is why central bankers and economists are closely watching what happens with prices for services, like health care and restaurant meals, pedicures and tax accounting.
Services inflation, which includes restaurant meals and other non-goods purchases, remains unusually rapid and has shown little sign of slowing down.Credit...Casey Steffens for The New York Times
Service prices may prove to be more closely tied to underlying momentum in the economy: Labor is a major cost for many service companies, so businesses are likely to charge more when unemployment is low and they have to increase pay to compete for workers.
So far, such inflation shows little sign of letting up. Service prices excluding energy continued to increase rapidly in January, owing in part to the jump in rental and other housing costs.
That rapid rent inflation is expected to abate in the months ahead as a recent pullback in asking rents on newly leased apartments gradually feeds into official inflation data. But how much — and for how long — increases in housing costs will fade is uncertain.
“It is a little bit unclear what the underlying momentum is in shelter,” said Sonia Meskin, head of U.S. macro at BNY Mellon Investment Management, explaining that strong job gains and solid wage growth could keep pressures on the market. “Shelter tends to correlate with a tight labor market.”
Hiring in America remains unusually strong, despite recent high-profile layoffs in the technology industry. Employers added more than half a million jobs in January, an unexpectedly robust number, and gains in average hourly earnings and other pay trackers remain rapid, though they have begun to slow.
The unsavory question confronting officials at the Fed is whether the labor market will need to weaken in order to wrestle inflation lower. Many central bankers have suggested that wage increases are probably too hot to be consistent with 2 percent inflation, their official target. Central bankers define their inflation goal using a related but more delayed inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index.
“I don’t think they’re going to feel comfortable until the labor market turns a little more decisively,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan.
While some policymakers have argued that the Fed should be careful not to constrain the labor market more than is necessary in its battle against inflation, that so-called dovish wing of the central bank’s policymaking set is poised to lose a key member. President Biden is going to make Lael Brainard, the Fed’s vice chair, the new head of his National Economic Council, according to people familiar with the matter.
Ms. Brainard has emphasized in recent speeches that the central bank may be able to wrestle inflation lower without slowing demand so much that it results in significant job losses. And she has focused on drivers of inflation outside of the labor market, including swollen corporate profits and aftershocks from high fuel prices.
But as she has emphasized those hopeful reasons that price increases might moderate, many other Fed officials have focused more keenly on the risk that services outside of housing will continue to climb at their current pace — keeping inflation too hot for comfort.
If that price measure “remained in its current range, while other categories returned to their prepandemic pace, total inflation going forward would settle much closer to 3 percent than to our 2 percent goal,” Ms. Logan from the Dallas Fed warned on Tuesday. She explained services inflation “as a symptom of an overheated economy, particularly a tight labor market.”
John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on Tuesday that controlling inflation “will likely entail a period of subdued growth and some softening of labor market conditions.”
For now, a mounting body of evidence suggests that inflation is not fading as quickly as economists and central bankers had hoped even a month or two ago, said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard who was an Obama administration economic adviser.
“It turns out that a lot of that was probably a false dawn,” Mr. Furman said. “The whole perspective we have on inflation is much worse.”