News round-up, Monday, February 20, 2023.
Quote of the day…
The oil and lithium belong to the nation, they belong to the people of Mexico and to all those who live in this region of Sonora, says the president.
Presidency of the Republic : 18 February 2023 : Press releaseMost read…
Biden makes surprise first visit to Ukraine, promises new arms supplies…
US President Joe Biden, who was scheduled to visit Poland this week, made his first visit to Kyiv since the start of the war.
Le Monde with AP and AFP In Sonora, President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, declares more than 230,000 hectares a lithium mining reserve zone…
The oil and lithium belong to the nation, they belong to the people of Mexico and to all those who live in this region of Sonora, says the president.
Presidency of the Republic : 18 February 2023 : Press releaseUp in smoke: Cities grapple with run on wood-burning stoves
The smoky emissions from burning wood have serious health impacts — particularly in dense urban areas.
The problem is acute in London, where smoke from wood-burning stoves adds to the already high levels of vehicle pollution, causing severe pollution hot spots
POLITICO EU BY ASHLEIGH FURLONGLNG: the three letters that have forever changed the European energy paradigm…
Liquefied natural gas, which arrives frozen by ship, already covers 40% of European needs, a figure that will continue to grow. Russia has practically no chance of becoming the EU's main supplier again.
EL PAÍS BY IGNACIO FARIZA
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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country
Armando Rodríguez, vice-president and executive director of the company, talks to us about their projects in the DR, where they have been operating for 32 years.
Sourrce by MERCADO Dominican Republic28 JUNE 2022More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.
Armando Rodríguez, vice president and executive director of Seaboard, joins us for this Mercado Interview to talk about the company's contributions to the Dominican Republic's electricity sector. "Our plants have been strategically located by the authorities of the electricity sector to make it possible to reduce blackouts in Santo Domingo and save foreign currency for all Dominicans," he explains.
Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…
Image: Germán & CoBiden makes surprise first visit to Ukraine, promises new arms supplies…
US President Joe Biden, who was scheduled to visit Poland this week, made his first visit to Kyiv since the start of the war.
Le Monde with AP and AFP Published on February 20, 2023 President Joe Biden walks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at St. Michael's Golden-Domed Cathedral on a surprise visit, Monday, February 20, 2023, in Kyiv. EVAN VUCCI / AP
US President Joe Biden made an unannounced visit to Ukraine Monday, February 20, to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky, a gesture of solidarity that comes days before the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of the country.
"One year later, Kyiv stands," Biden said. "And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands. The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you." Biden spent more than five hours in the Ukrainian capital, consulting with Zelensky on next steps, honoring the country’s fallen soldiers and meeting with US embassy staff in the war-torn country.
Biden delivered remarks with Zelensky at Mariinsky Palace to announce an additional half billion dollars in US assistance and to reassure Ukraine of American and allied support as the conflict continues. "One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands," Biden said. "Joseph Biden, welcome to Kyiv! Your visit is an extremely important sign of support for all Ukrainians," Zelensky wrote on Telegram, in English.
Biden stressed his "unflagging commitment" in defending Ukraine's territorial integrity, and promised new arms. He announced an additional half-billion dollars in US assistance, including shells for howitzers, anti-tank missiles, air surveillance radars and other aid but no new advanced weaponry.
Zelensky said he and Biden spoke about "long-range weapons and the weapons that may still be supplied to Ukraine even though it wasn't supplied before." But he did not detail any new commitments.
Air sirens sound
Speaking alongside Zelensky, Biden recalled the fears nearly a year ago that Russia's invasion forces might quickly take the Ukrainian capital.
Biden also got a short firsthand taste of the terror that Ukrainians have lived with for close to a year, as air raids sirens howled over the capital just as he and Zelensky were exiting the gold-domed St. Michael's Cathedral, which they visited together. Looking solemn, they continued unperturbed as they laid a wreath and held a moment of silence at the Wall of Remembrance honoring Ukrainian soldiers killed since 2014.
Biden warned that the "brutal and unjust war" is far from won. "The cost that Ukraine has had to bear has been extraordinarily high. And the sacrifices have been far too great," Biden said. "We know that there'll be very difficult days and weeks and years ahead. But Russia's aim was to wipe Ukraine off the map. Putin's war of conquest is failing."
"He's counting on us not sticking together," Biden said of the Russian leader. "He thought he could outlast us. I don't think he's thinking that right now. God knows what he's thinking, but I don't think he's thinking that. But he's just been plain wrong. Plain wrong."
Secret trip
Speculation had been building for weeks that Biden would pay a visit to Ukraine around the February 24 anniversary of the Russian invasion. But the White House repeatedly had said that no presidential trip to Ukraine was planned, even after the Poland visit was announced earlier this month.
At the White House, planning for Biden's visit to Kyiv was tightly held – with a relatively small group of aides briefed on the plans – because of security concerns. Asked by a reporter on Friday if Biden might include stops beyond Poland, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby replied, "Right now, the trip is going to be in Warsaw."
Biden quietly departed from Joint Base Andrews near Washington shortly after 4 am on Sunday, making a stop at Ramstein Air Base in Germany before making his way into Ukraine.
At the White House, planning for Biden's visit to Kyiv was tightly held – with a relatively small group of aides briefed on the plans – because of security concerns. Asked by a reporter on Friday if Biden might include stops beyond Poland, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby replied, "Right now, the trip is going to be in Warsaw."
Biden quietly departed from Joint Base Andrews near Washington shortly after 4 am on Sunday, making a stop at Ramstein Air Base in Germany before making his way into Ukraine.
The White House would not go into specifics but said that "basic communication with the Russians occurred to ensure deconfliction" shortly before Biden's visit in an effort to avoid any miscalculation that could bring the two nuclear-armed nations into direct conflict.
This is Biden's first visit to a war zone as president. His recent predecessors, Donald Trump, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, made surprise visits to Afghanistan and Iraq during their presidencies to meet with US troops and those countries' leaders.
Image:outletminero.orgIn Sonora, President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, declares more than 230,000 hectares a lithium mining reserve zone…
The oil and lithium belong to the nation, they belong to the people of Mexico and to all those who live in this region of Sonora, says the president.
Presidency of the Republic : 18 February 2023 : Press releaseIn Sonora, President AMLO declares more than 230,000 hectares a lithium mining reserve zone
Bacadéhuachi, Sonora, 18 February 2023 - President Andrés Manuel López Obrador declared a lithium mining reserve zone of 234,855 hectares located in the Sonoran municipalities of Arivechi, Divisaderos, Granados, Huásabas, Nácori Chico, Sahuaripa and Bacadéhuachi, the region with the greatest potential for the exploitation of the mineral in the state.
During the signing of the agreement instructing the Ministry of Energy to follow up on the declaration, the president recalled the decision to use the strategic mineral for the benefit of the people.
He said that the historical process that led to the expropriation of oil is related to this day, since the Porfirian regime handed over oil to foreigners without any benefit for the people, and it was not until 1917 when the Constitution established that the subsoil assets belong to the nation. Due to pressure from the US government not to pass the oil law, it was not until 1938 that President Lázaro Cárdenas del Río led the expropriation.
"What we are doing now, keeping in mind the proportions and at another time, is nationalising lithium so that it cannot be exploited by foreigners, neither from Russia, nor from China, nor from the United States. Oil and lithium belong to the nation, they belong to the people of Mexico, to you, to all those who live in this region of Sonora, to all Mexicans.
After mentioning the decree of 20 April 2022 that reformed the Mining Law to establish that lithium is patrimony of the nation, he explained that the technical process of exploration and extraction of this basic input for the automotive industry will begin.
"It is not possible to make electric cars - as is the commitment of the US government and the commitment of the Canadian government, and also our commitment, and it is something that we approved - we could not advance in this objective if we do not have lithium. So, a process of technological development begins in order to have the raw material, also with the purpose of installing plants for the production of batteries".
He indicated that this action is complementary to the Puerto Peñasco photovoltaic plant, of which the federal government concluded the first stage, with which our country is taking the first step in the use of clean energy.
He stressed that the state has what it takes to trigger the automotive industry, as it is the second largest copper-producing state in the world, which complements the industrial development sought by the Sonora Plan.
Governor Alfonso Durazo Montaño explained that the decision to nationalise lithium is related to the nationalisation of the oil and electricity industries so that natural resources remain in Mexico for the benefit of the economy and communities.
After reaffirming the commitment to look after the public interest and the defence of the nation, he recalled that on 5 August 2021, the President of the Republic issued an executive order to the automotive industry that at least half of all new vehicles must be electric by 2030.
In this regard, he said that Mexico and Sonora guarantee the fulfilment of the Sonora Plan in terms of sustainable energy, as the state has the largest lithium deposit and is the only producer of graphite in the country, as well as the second largest copper producer in the world.
After confirming that this government promotes investments with a social dimension, the Secretary of Economy, Raquel Buenrostro Sánchez, stressed that the nationalisation of lithium deepens the transformation project for the country in this century, by laying the foundations for an industrial and clean energy policy for the next 50 or 70 years, as our country is rich in materials for the energy transition, especially lithium.
He pointed out that the conversion of internal combustion units to electric power is underway and will grow exponentially in the coming years, for which lithium is required.
"What better opportunity for the industry than to do it hand in hand with the specialised knowledge and experience of Mexican workers. That is why all the automotive companies are looking to us to settle in our territory in various parts of the country."
He added that the declaration of the lithium reserve that President López Obrador formalised today, together with the industrial policy implemented by the Ministry of Economy, will have a bright future for decades to come.
"The nationalisation of lithium will be remembered by future generations as the turning point that gave way to the new industrial policy and import substitution of this century, an industrial policy that is committed to clean energy."
It is worth remembering that on 20 April 2022, the federal chief executive issued the decree that reformed the Mining Law to establish that lithium is patrimony of the nation, and reserves its exploration, exploitation, benefit and use in favour of the people of Mexico.
Also accompanying the President of the Republic were: the Secretary of Energy, Rocío Nahle García, as well as the Secretaries of: National Defence, Luis Cresencio Sandoval González; Finance and Public Credit, Rogelio Ramírez de la O; and Infrastructure, Communications and Transport, Jorge Nuño Lara.
Likewise, the undersecretary of Expenditure of the SHCP, Juan Pablo de Botton Falcón; the general coordinator of Social Communication and spokesperson for the Presidency, Jesús Ramírez Cuevas; the general director of Lithium for Mexico, Pablo Daniel Taddei Arriola; and the municipal president of Bacadéhuachi, Luis Alfonso Sierra Villaescusa.
Source: austral.comUp in smoke: Cities grapple with run on wood-burning stoves
The smoky emissions from burning wood have serious health impacts — particularly in dense urban areas.
The problem is acute in London, where smoke from wood-burning stoves adds to the already high levels of vehicle pollution, causing severe pollution hot spots
POLITICO EU BY ASHLEIGH FURLONGFEBRUARY 15, 2023
This article is part of POLITICO’s Global Policy Lab: Living Cities, a collaborative journalism project exploring the future of cities.
LONDON — With energy prices skyrocketing, many Europeans have switched to wood-burning stoves to save on their heating bills — but that’s hampering efforts to curb air pollution, particularly in cities.
Despite its cozy, natural and green image as an alternative to fossil fuels, burning wood — and the emissions it creates — has serious health consequences. Smoke from wood-burning stoves contains fine particulate matter and other dangerous substances like carbon monoxide; in cities, these mix with pollution from traffic to form a lethal combination, exacerbating the risks of asthma and heart failure.
That’s putting cities across Europe in a bind, as they’ve committed to ambitious targets to go climate-neutral and significantly lower pollution. And instead of moving away from wood burning, high energy prices caused by the Ukraine war have prompted many households to adopt the form of heating.
The problem is acute in London, where smoke from wood-burning stoves adds to the already high levels of vehicle pollution, causing severe pollution hot spots.
With emissions on the rise, Mayor Sadiq Khan earlier this month unveiled new planning guidance that requires zero particulate emissions for new and refurbished developments, effectively banning the installation of wood-burning stoves in these developments.
The move is seen as an “example of how you can kind of do a step change to essentially banning them” in new developments, said Tessa Bartholomew-Good, campaign lead at Global Action Plan, an environmental NGO.
But it’s also sparked a call for broader action, including from Rosamund Kissi-Debrah, mother of nine-year-old Ella, the first person whose death from an asthma attack was officially linked to air pollution. She lived in a pollution hot spot.
Kissi-Debrah has called for a complete ban on the use of wood-burning stoves in the capital, arguing that while they might make sense in other parts of the country, they’re worsening the city’s already desperate air quality.
London is not alone in looking for ways to curb wood-burning stoves, with cities across Europe wrestling with similar trends and campaigners lamenting that the energy crisis has undone years-long efforts to convince people to ditch firewood.
It’s as if the last decade of progress was “lost within a year,” said Kåre Press-Kristensen, senior adviser on air quality and climate at the NGO Green Transition Denmark. “It’s kind of back to the Stone Age campfire — just in our living room.”
Trial and error
Precise figures on the increase in wood burning in cities are difficult to come by, but the cumulative evidence points to a dramatic increase.
The U.K. government on Tuesday released new data showing that particulate matter pollution from wood burning in homes has doubled over the past decade. Data from the country’s Stove Industry Alliance showed a 66 percent increase in stove sales between July and September compared to the same period in 2021.
Austria’s demand for chimney sweeps increased by a factor of four to five, according to the Federal Guild Master of Chimney Sweeps. In Germany, official statistics from December show that prices for firewood, wood pellets or other solid fuels increased by 96 percent in November 2022, compared to the same month the previous year.
Researchers warn that the increase will be costly — both in terms of health impacts and public expenses.
The fine particulate matter, PM 2.5, released by wood burning has been shown to “flood” the home and impact on the community when released into the air outside.
Data from consultancy CE Delft found the health-related costs of outdoor air pollution caused by wood-burning stoves comes in at nearly €9 billion in the EU and U.K. The cost is particularly high in some countries such as Italy, where wood-burning stoves make up 75 percent of the total health costs of pollution from domestic heating and cooking.
The Killer In The Kitchen
The health-related social costs of outdoor air pollution due to domestic heating and cooking in the EU and U.K. totaled €29 billion in 2018. Most of these impacts occur in urban areas. Several factors, including the fuels and heating technologies used and the amount of energy consumed, can explain the differences between countries.
Direct* health-related costs per household due to residential heating and cooking in urban and rural areas, in euros per year.
Source: POLITICO EU by cedelft.euAverage health-related cost per household of technique-fuel combinations for heating in the EU and the U.K., in euros per year.
*Direct costs relate to direct emissions that arise at home from fossil fuels and biomass-based techniques. Indirect emissions are caused by electricity and heat production; it is unclear whether they occur in urban or rural areas and they are excluded from the chart.SOURCE: Kortekand et al. (2022)The report calculated that using a wood-burning stove leads to some €750 in annual health costs from pollution per household — compared to €210 for a diesel car.
With full-on bans out of reach in most cities, policymakers’ options for curtailing the use of wood-burning stoves are limited.
“Currently, there are no legal grounds to ban wood burning completely,” said Eva Oosters, vice mayor for environment and emissions-free transport in the Dutch city of Utrecht. Instead, the city is focused on trying to “encourage people to choose a healthier and cleaner environment.”
In December 2021, it implemented a subsidy for people to remove or replace their stove with a less polluting one. The scheme proved popular, but the city decided to scrap it this year, only providing a subsidy to remove stoves completely.
Oslo, which ran a similar scheme, also changed its approach, after research showed that emissions levels remained high — potentially because people used the new stoves more frequently than the old ones. The city is now spending more resources on longer-term measures aimed at lowering energy use and making alternative energy sources more affordable.
“We are giving grants to improve energy efficiency in buildings, and we have district heating systems over large portions of the city — that is how you give people real [alternatives] to wood burning,” said Oslo’s Vice Mayor for Environment and Transport Sirin Stav.
For EU cities, there’s an additional hurdle.
Patrick Huth, senior expert at Environmental Action Germany, said discussions in Berlin around setting stricter requirements for wood-burning stoves come up against an awkward fact: Despite the additional pollution, Germany is still meeting the air quality limit values for particulate matter set by the EU.
“This is a huge problem, because if the air quality limit values are met, then there’s no pressure on cities to do more to make stricter emission limit values or to implement bans for this kind of pollution source,” he said.
Brussels has proposed tightening the bloc’s air quality guidelines but the new limits are still twice as high as the latest recommendations from the World Health Organization.
Behavior change
Adding to the challenge for cities is a lack of awareness about the health impacts associated with wood burning. Most people don’t realize their stoves are dangerous to the health of their families and neighborhoods — and don’t enjoy being lectured.
“Educating people about the links between wood burning, air pollution and health — without judgment — is an essential step toward behavior change, regulation and supporting a transition to other energy sources for those who need it,” said Rachel Pidgeon from Impact on Urban Health, a nonprofit that helps cities tackle issues like air pollution.
But cities that launch information and behavior change campaigns face a tough audience, especially when discussing potential bans on wood burning in densely populated areas.
In Norway, people have reacted “very negatively to our claims,” said Susana Lopez-Aparicio, the lead scientist on the Norwegian Institute for Air Research’s report. “[Wood burning] is very connected with Norwegian culture.”
People who burn wood are “tightly attached to it,” said Gary Fuller, senior lecturer in air quality measurement at Imperial College London, pointing to research that found users were not swayed when presented with results from pollution sensors.
They also tend to be relatively affluent and choose to burn logs not only because of high energy prices but because of the cozy social atmosphere it creates, according to research by Kantar for the British government.
That makes habits hard to shift, Fuller predicted. “Being able to change this behavior, just by information, is going to be really challenging.”
Source: El País, Model of a methane tanker, with the Chinese flag in the background. DADO RUVIC (REUTERS)LNG: the three letters that have forever changed the European energy paradigm…
Liquefied natural gas, which arrives frozen by ship, already covers 40% of European needs, a figure that will continue to grow. Russia has practically no chance of becoming the EU's main supplier again.
El País by IGNACIO FARIZAMadrid - 20 FEB 2023Europe is approaching the sad anniversary of the day it woke up as a different Europe. The Russian offensive, even before the first light of dawn broke over Kiev on 24 February, shattered much more than diplomatic relations between powers. With the first bombs falling on Ukrainian soil, decades of European subservience to cheap gas from the East were also blown apart.
Moscow was breaking with its biggest and most loyal customer, perhaps forever: almost 12 months later, although Russian LNG tankers continue to dock, fuel arrivals by pipeline from Russia are now minimal. The Eurasian giant is beginning to feel the impact of the sanctions, having to look to Asia for its livelihood. And the thesis that this new status quo - more expensive, logistically much more complex and more damaging to the environment, but also more secure from the point of view of security of supply - is here to stay is gaining ground in the European upper echelons.
The EU has been forced to completely turn around its sources of supply in record time. From having a direct supply almost on its doorstep, it has gone from having to fetch it from countries as far away as the United States, Qatar and Nigeria. Three letters - LNG: liquefied natural gas - have made this unprecedented reconfiguration possible: almost 40% of the gas consumed by the EU was of this type - that which arrives by ship in a frozen state - 60% more than a year earlier.
Shipments from the US, which is making a killing and has replaced Russia as the bloc's main supplier, have more than doubled. And those from Norway, Egypt, Trinidad and Tobago and Peru, although starting from a much lower level, have also shot up. This, however, is only an appetizer of what is to come: far from being a one-day phenomenon, these three acronyms, practically unknown to the general public, will become part of the collective imagination for decades to come.
"It is a trend that will continue," confirms Xi Nan, senior vice-president of the specialised consultancy Rystad Energy. "LNG was and still is the only way to replace Gazprom," adds Emmanuel Dubois-Pelerin, senior director at ratings firm S&P. For decades, he emphasises, the Russian gas company "was not only the largest source of gas for Europe but also the only one with very short-term flexibility". For example, from one month to the next in a cold winter. "All other sources - pipelines from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan - are maxed out, and EU and UK production continues to shrink inexorably," he says.
Russia out of the picture
Even if the war ends soon - something that virtually no observer envisages - Russia's chances of regaining its hegemonic position as Europe's leading gas supplier are minimal, if not non-existent. The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, once the main channel for Russian fuel into the EU, has further complicated matters, but it is not the biggest problem: although costly, it is repairable. Diplomatic and commercial ties between the Eurasian giant and Russia are less so: all consulted analysts believe that even if Vladimir Putin's regime falls, Russia's pre-eminence is history.
"I don't think Russia will play that role in the future: in the coming years, Europe will rely on LNG and renewables," says Rystad Energy's Nan. "Our baseline scenario is that pipelines will be marginal in the future, staying close to the current level," outlines Dubois-Pelerin. Just one-sixth as much gas transits through them as in 2019, just before the pandemic and, above all, before the invasion of Ukraine. "Perhaps the dependence has shifted and it is now Russia that depends on Europe to maintain the influx of foreign exchange," adds the S&P analyst.
Germany ushers in a new era without Russian gas
"The destruction of Nord Stream and the construction of regasification terminals to compensate for the loss of Russian gas mean that LNG is now fully integrated into Europe's energy infrastructure," notes Henning Gloystein, Energy Director at risk consultancy Eurasia. "At least for the next 20 years.
The capacity of European regasification plants will soar by 25% between 2021 and 2023, according to calculations by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Neither these gigantic investments - each of these regasification plants, of which more than a dozen are planned, both on the Atlantic and Mediterranean sides, cost hundreds of millions of euros - nor the new supply contracts signed with companies and countries outside Moscow, also worth millions, can be easily reversed, even if the war were to end soon. This, in any case, is something that no one foresees.
“Russia," Gloystein says, "has lost all its reputation".
Gas under 50 euros
In contrast to the hecatomb that has been feared for months, the winter that is about to end has been much calmer than even the most optimistic observer could have imagined. Europe's gas reservoirs are at two-thirds of capacity, double the level of a year ago and 60% higher than the average of the last decade. Not even in 2020, when the virus plunged consumption to historic lows, did Europe have as much gas in storage as today. And that has helped to reduce - and a lot - the pressure on prices. Gas prices in the Old Continent closed last week below 50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), an unprecedented level in a year and a half.
From this point, however, the downward margin is slim: LNG is, by definition, much more expensive than the one that arrives by pipe. This is because it entails unavoidable liquefaction costs - to change from a gaseous to a liquid state and freeze it -, transport costs - in some cases, tens of thousands of kilometres - and regasification costs - to return it to a gaseous state so that it can be consumed again. The levels of 20 euros per MWh of a couple of years ago, when most of the gas was piped from Russia, are unbeatable: now, with luck, the floor will be in the region of 30 or 40 euros.
The return of China - along with Japan, the world's largest importer of liquefied gas - also promises strong emotions. "Europe will have to compete with the rest of the world and particularly with Asia," predicts Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil of the IEA. As with any struggle, this fight between giants will leave third countries in the lurch: the lower-income emerging countries, which are being pushed out of a market in which they cannot compete. The best example is Pakistan - a giant usually out of the spotlight despite being, mind you, the fifth most populous country in the world - which, given the high cost of LNG, is going to quadruple its electricity generation with coal. A logical move in purely economic terms, but a disastrous one in environmental terms.
If a few months ago it was thought that the big bottleneck would be the regasification plants, now all eyes are on the opposite side: the liquefaction trains. "The global market will remain tense until 2025 due to the lack of investment in this type of project during the pandemic″, predicts Nan. Knowing that natural gas - now dominant in industry, heating and even in the electricity matrix of many Western countries - will eventually be eclipsed by renewables, green hydrogen and biomethane, no one wants to make a false move.
The opportunity for exporters is as great as the risk of embarking on pharaonic investments that may become obsolete in a few years. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) forecasts that Europe's appetite for LNG will start to fall, little by little, from 2024 onwards. Demand could still be strong in 2023, but is set to fall as EU climate and energy security policies reduce gas demand by at least 40% by 2030," reads its latest monograph, published this week. "Europe's ambitious energy transition targets mean that much of the new [regasification] capacity could go unused."
Winter over, what about the next one?
While this winter is not yet over, the spotlight is already on the next one. In the coming months, Europe will have to deal with an added problem: unlike last spring - the season when the Old Continent takes advantage of the opportunity to refill its tanks - this year the task will have to be done on its own, without the wild card of piped imports from Russia. And even with the LNG boom, in December the IEA was forecasting a shortfall of around 15% of demand by 2023.
Two months later, the agency's head of natural gas analysis is downplaying the pessimism considerably. Since then, Dubreuil writes by email, lower demand - mainly due to milder-than-usual weather - has "significantly moderated the pressure". Still, he says, this apparent improvement in the outlook "should not be a distraction" from further reducing demand. Next year, he insists, "gas supply will remain tight, and the increase in LNG supply will not be sufficient to replace" all that was piped in from Russia. In a stress scenario - a cold winter, limited LNG availability and zero imports from Russia - the EU would face a shortfall of just under 10% of demand, according to his updated calculations.
Even more optimistic is Eurasia's Gloystein, who already sees the Rubicon of next winter as crossed: "Europe has contracted enough gas to get through this and next winter. The risk of fuel shortages has been mitigated". All, of course, at the cost of a huge amount of money. Not only because replacing piped gas with LNG is more expensive: double at best, but it can be more than tenfold, as was evident last summer, when it reached around 350 euros per MWh. "There is nothing wrong with taking a breather, but let's not be surprised when the crisis returns. Let it not be a rude awakening", warned Brookings Institution researcher Samantha Gross a few days ago. A warning to the navigators that should not be forgotten.