News round-up, Monday, January 16, 2023
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“Just as teachers will have to change how they give students exams and essay assignments in light of ChatGPT, governments will have to change how they relate to lobbyists.”
“For what purpose do we exist, and why are we required? Is artificial intelligence already more advanced than us?”
How ChatGPT Hijacks Democracy
Jan. 15, 202
CreditCredit...By David Szakaly
By Nathan E. Sanders and Bruce Schneier
Mr. Sanders is a data scientist. Mr. Schneier is a security technologist.
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Launched just weeks ago, ChatGPT is already threatening to upend how we draft everyday communications like emails, college essays and myriad other forms of writing.
Created by the company OpenAI, ChatGPT is a chatbot that can automatically respond to written prompts in a manner that is sometimes eerily close to human.
But for all the consternation over the potential for humans to be replaced by machines in formats like poetry and sitcom scripts, a far greater threat looms: artificial intelligence replacing humans in the democratic processes — not through voting, but through lobbying.
ChatGPT could automatically compose comments submitted in regulatory processes. It could write letters to the editor for publication in local newspapers. It could comment on news articles, blog entries and social media posts millions of times every day. It could mimic the work that the Russian Internet Research Agency did in its attempt to influence our 2016 elections, but without the agency’s reported multimillion-dollar budget and hundreds of employees.
Automatically generated comments aren’t a new problem. For some time, we have struggled with bots, machines that automatically post content. Five years ago, at least a million automatically drafted comments were believed to have been submitted to the Federal Communications Commission regarding proposed regulations on net neutrality. In 2019, a Harvard undergraduate, as a test, used a text-generation program to submit 1,001 comments in response to a government request for public input on a Medicaid issue. Back then, submitting comments was just a game of overwhelming numbers.
Platforms have gotten better at removing “coordinated inauthentic behavior.” Facebook, for example, has been removing over a billion fake accounts a year. But such messages are just the beginning. Rather than flooding legislators’ inboxes with supportive emails, or dominating the Capitol switchboard with synthetic voice calls, an A.I. system with the sophistication of ChatGPT but trained on relevant data could selectively target key legislators and influencers to identify the weakest points in the policymaking system and ruthlessly exploit them through direct communication, public relations campaigns, horse trading or other points of leverage.
When we humans do these things, we call it lobbying. Successful agents in this sphere pair precision message writing with smart targeting strategies. Right now, the only thing stopping a ChatGPT-equipped lobbyist from executing something resembling a rhetorical drone warfare campaign is a lack of precision targeting. A.I. could provide techniques for that as well.
A system that can understand political networks, if paired with the textual-generation capabilities of ChatGPT, could identify the member of Congress with the most leverage over a particular policy area — say, corporate taxation or military spending. Like human lobbyists, such a system could target undecided representatives sitting on committees controlling the policy of interest and then focus resources on members of the majority party when a bill moves toward a floor vote.
Once individuals and strategies are identified, an A.I. chatbot like ChatGPT could craft written messages to be used in letters, comments — anywhere text is useful. Human lobbyists could also target those individuals directly. It’s the combination that’s important: Editorial and social media comments only get you so far, and knowing which legislators to target isn’t itself enough.
This ability to understand and target actors within a network would create a tool for A.I. hacking, exploiting vulnerabilities in social, economic and political systems with incredible speed and scope. Legislative systems would be a particular target, because the motive for attacking policymaking systems is so strong, because the data for training such systems is so widely available and because the use of A.I. may be so hard to detect — particularly if it is being used strategically to guide human actors.
The data necessary to train such strategic targeting systems will only grow with time. Open societies generally make their democratic processes a matter of public record, and most legislators are eager — at least, performatively so — to accept and respond to messages that appear to be from their constituents.
Maybe an A.I. system could uncover which members of Congress have significant sway over leadership but still have low enough public profiles that there is only modest competition for their attention. It could then pinpoint the SuperPAC or public interest group with the greatest impact on that legislator’s public positions. Perhaps it could even calibrate the size of donation needed to influence that organization or direct targeted online advertisements carrying a strategic message to its members. For each policy end, the right audience; and for each audience, the right message at the right time.
What makes the threat of A.I.-powered lobbyists greater than the threat already posed by the high-priced lobbying firms on K Street is their potential for acceleration. Human lobbyists rely on decades of experience to find strategic solutions to achieve a policy outcome. That expertise is limited, and therefore expensive.
A.I. could, theoretically, do the same thing much more quickly and cheaply. Speed out of the gate is a huge advantage in an ecosystem in which public opinion and media narratives can become entrenched quickly, as is being nimble enough to shift rapidly in response to chaotic world events.
Moreover, the flexibility of A.I. could help achieve influence across many policies and jurisdictions simultaneously. Imagine an A.I.-assisted lobbying firm that can attempt to place legislation in every single bill moving in the U.S. Congress, or even across all state legislatures. Lobbying firms tend to work within one state only, because there are such complex variations in law, procedure and political structure. With A.I. assistance in navigating these variations, it may become easier to exert power across political boundaries.
Just as teachers will have to change how they give students exams and essay assignments in light of ChatGPT, governments will have to change how they relate to lobbyists.
To be sure, there may also be benefits to this technology in the democracy space; the biggest one is accessibility. Not everyone can afford an experienced lobbyist, but a software interface to an A.I. system could be made available to anyone. If we’re lucky, maybe this kind of strategy-generating A.I. could revitalize the democratization of democracy by giving this kind of lobbying power to the powerless.
However, the biggest and most powerful institutions will likely use any A.I. lobbying techniques most successfully. After all, executing the best lobbying strategy still requires insiders — people who can walk the halls of the legislature — and money. Lobbying isn’t just about giving the right message to the right person at the right time; it’s also about giving money to the right person at the right time. And while an A.I. chatbot can identify who should be on the receiving end of those campaign contributions, humans will, for the foreseeable future, need to supply the cash. So while it’s impossible to predict what a future filled with A.I. lobbyists will look like, it will probably make the already influential and powerful even more so.
German anti-coal protesters accuse police of violence
Organizers said that 35,000 protesters demonstrated on Saturday. Police put the figure at 15,000.
Le Monde with AFP
Published on January 15, 2023
Climate activists on Sunday, January 15, accused police of "pure violence" after clashes during a demonstration at a German village being razed to make way for a coal mine expansion.
In an operation that began on Wednesday, hundreds of police have been removing activists from the doomed hamlet of Luetzerath in western Germany.
The site, which has become a symbol of resistance to fossil fuels, attracted thousands of protesters on Saturday, including Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg.
Protest organizers reported that dozens had been injured in clashes with police. Indigo Drau, a spokeswoman for the organizers, on Sunday told a press conference the police had gone in with "pure violence." Officers had "unrestrainedly" beaten protesters, often on the head, she said.
Activists on Saturday had accused the police of using "massive batons, pepper spray... water cannons, dogs and horses."
At least 20 activists had been taken to hospital for treatment, said Birte Schramm, a medic with the group. Some of them had been beaten on the head and in the stomach by police, she said. Organizers said that 35,000 protesters demonstrated on Saturday. Police put the figure at 15,000.
A police spokesperson said on Sunday around 70 officers had been injured since Wednesday, many of them in Saturday's clashes.
Criminal proceedings have been launched in around 150 cases, police said, including for resistance against police officers, damage to property and breach of the peace. The situation on the ground was "very calm" on Sunday, the police spokesperson said.
About a dozen activists were still holed up in tree houses and at least two were hiding in an underground tunnel, according to the police.
Luetzerath – deserted for some time by its former inhabitants – is being demolished to make way for the extension of the adjacent open-cast coal mine. The mine, already one of the largest in Europe, is operated by energy firm RWE.
The expansion is going ahead in spite of plans to phase out coal by 2030, with the government blaming the energy crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Le Monde with AFP
Chile: Pardon granted to prisoners of 2019 revolt sparks political crisis
President Gabriel Boric pardoned 12 people convicted in connection with the violence that plagued the demonstrations. This measure was marred by 'errors' and led to the resignation of the Minister of Justice and the head of the cabinet.
By Flora Genoux (Buenos Aires (Argentina) correspondent)
Published on January 16, 2023
It was a campaign promise of President Gabriel Boric (left), who came to power in Chile in March 2022. But, in trying to fulfill it, the government is now facing a major political crisis. The resignation of Minister of Justice Marcela Rios was confirmed on Saturday, January 7, as well as that of the chief of staff Matias Meza-Lopehandia, a close friend of the president.
The resignations come after Mr. Boric's decision on Dec. 30, 2022, to grant presidential pardons to people who had been convicted in connection with the violence that marred the historic 2019 anti-inequality movement. The head of state had made it one of his priorities, motivated by the need to "heal the scars" of the protests, which were violently repressed by the police. According to figures from the Chilean gendarmerie, requested by the Senate and disclosed in January 2022, 211 people were convicted or in pre-trial detention for crimes related to the demonstrations.
But the choice of the individuals pardoned – twelve men in total – immediately sparked controversy. The release of Luis Castillo, 37, was particularly shocking. Beyond his participation in the demonstrations, this man is a repeat offender, convicted several times including for robbery with violence, all of which occurred well before the social revolt, according to revelations of the television channel T13.
On Saturday, January 7, Mr. Boric acknowledged "errors" and "flaws in the execution of [his] decision" without going into detail. The measure does not meet the criteria "set by the president (...) to exclude [from the pardon] people who had a complex criminal record prior to the revolt," admitted Camila Vallejo, government spokeswoman, on Monday, without specifying how many ex-detainees are affected by this error. Nevertheless, the pardon has no legal defect and "it is not possible to revoke it," she stressed.
About thirty deaths
The right was opposed in principle to the concept of pardoning those prosecuted in connection with the protests. "The priority is to be on the side of the victims, not the offenders," said Diego Schalper, deputy and secretary general of Renovacion Nacional (right), who condemned what he called a "huge mistake." The opposition left the "security table," a space for dialogue between the government and the opposition launched in November 2022 to establish strategies to combat insecurity, which according to opinion polls is the number one concern of Chileans.
The unpopular release of some of the social revolt prisoners has become an issue since the presidential campaign at the end of 2021 and even more so since Mr. Boric took office. The ruling left-wing coalition is following in the footsteps of the 2019 movement against inequality, which in particular raised demands for new social rights. Mr. Boric echoed these demands and the corresponding need to write a new constitution. Although the project formulated during a year was amply rejected in a referendum in September 2022, its drafting must now be relaunched.
However, while the social revolt was marred by the outbursts of violent individuals, it also involved the "excessive use of force" by the police, as condemned by the UN. In all, some 30 people lost their lives and over 400 sustained eye injuries. It is in this context that Amnesty International has denounced the "disproportionate use of pre-trial detention."
Initially, the government had set its sights on an amnesty law, which was to be debated in Parliament. But without a majority or political consensus, the project floundered, finally leading to this pardon, which depends only on the will of the president. According to the Cadem institute, 64 percent of those polled were opposed to it.
'Tactical and timing error'
The release of the detainees "was used by the right to undermine the government and get its [candidate for the post of] national prosecutor," according to human rights lawyer Karinna Fernandez. The January 9 appointment of the new head of the prosecutor's office, an autonomous body responsible for conducting investigations, was the subject of arduous negotiations, while the position remained vacant for 100 days. Ms. Fernandez herself was a candidate before withdrawing from the race in November 2022. The head of the prosecutor's office "is an authority that will have an influence on the cases of police violence of the social revolt, he has, for example, the possibility of not following up on the investigations," explained the lawyer.
According to Marco Moreno, a political scientist at the Central University of Chile, the government made "a tactical and timing error. It has governed for its political tribe [the leftmost wing of the coalition] and deprived itself of a start to the year with good news about the work of the security table." As the government approaches its first year in office, "it lacks clarity and direction," argued Mr. Moreno.
When he took office on Wednesday, January 11, the new Minister of Justice, Luis Cordero, said that "since their application in the 1990s until today, grounds [for pardons] have been a source of conflict." The controversy has further undermined the president's image, which had benefited from a very relative improvement at the end of the year. According to the Cadem institute, 70% of those polled disapproved of Mr. Boric's leadership at the beginning of January, representing a peak of negative opinion.
Flora Genoux(Buenos Aires (Argentina) correspondent)
US says Venezuela President Maduro is still illegitimate
The US said Tuesday it would maintain sanctions after the fledgling opposition dissolved its 'interim government.' Joined by most Western and Latin American nations, Washington recognized Juan Guaido as interim president four years ago.
Le Monde with AFP
Published on January 4, 2023
The United States said Tuesday, January 3, it still did not consider Nicolas Maduro to be the legitimate president of Venezuela and would maintain sanctions after the fledgling opposition dissolved its "interim government."
President Joe Biden's administration said that Venezuelan government assets in the United States, notably of the state oil company, would remain legally under the authority of the opposition-led National Assembly, which was elected in 2015 but has been disempowered by Mr. Maduro's leftist government.
"Our approach to Nicolas Maduro is not changing. He is not the legitimate leader of Venezuela," State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters. "We continue to recognize what is the only remaining democratically elected institution in Venezuela today, and that's the 2015 National Assembly," Mr. Price said. Mr. Price said that existing sanctions "remain in place" and that the United States was in touch with the National Assembly on whether a new individual, group or committee would oversee government assets.
More than seven million Venezuelans have fled
The United States, under former president Donald Trump, set a goal of toppling Mr. Maduro in 2019 following elections widely seen as fraudulent and as an economic crisis wreaked havoc with shortages of basic necessities. More than seven million Venezuelans have fled their country, most to neighboring countries but with a growing number making the dangerous trek to the United States.
Joined by most Western and Latin American nations at the time, the United States four years ago recognized the National Assembly's Juan Guaido as interim president. Mr. Maduro has remained in power with backing from some segments of the population as well as the military, Russia, China and Cuba. The National Assembly – now largely a symbolic force in Caracas – on Friday voted to dissolve Mr. Guaido's "interim government."
In an interview broadcast Sunday on state television, Mr. Maduro proposed top-level talks with the Biden administration. "Venezuela is ready, totally ready, to take steps towards a process of normalization of diplomatic, consular and political relations with the current administration of the United States and with administrations to come," Maduro said.
'An exercise in political realism'
Despite not recognizing his legitimacy, the Biden administration sent a delegation that met Mr. Maduro in March and in November it gave the green light for US oil giant Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela following a spike in crude prices due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Chevron move came after the Maduro government and opposition reached an agreement in talks in Mexico to let the United Nations administer government funds for a variety of social spending in the country.
In Caracas, National Assembly member Tomas Guanipa, whose opposition party Primero Justicia pushed to end the interim government, told reporters that last week's decision was "an exercise in political realism." "Whether Maduro is illegitimate is not up for discussion; what cannot exist is an alternative government that doesn't exercise its functions and that had been set up to achieve change quickly," said Mr. Guanipa, who served as the interim government's ambassador to Colombia.
Political support for Mr. Guaido had eroded further outside the United States, where fervent anti-communists of Cuban and Venezuelan descent are a potent political force, although generally tilting toward Mr. Trump's Republican Party.
The sharpest shift has been in Colombia, long a vociferous opponent of Mr. Maduro, where President Gustavo Petro has pursued reconciliation since he was elected last year as Colombia's first-ever leftist leader.
The European Union, while not dropping support for Mr. Guaido, since mid-2021 stopped referring to him as interim president after Mr. Maduro pushed aside the National Assembly. A French foreign ministry spokeswoman, asked Tuesday about the end of the interim government, said France "supports the democratic forces of Venezuela who will organize themselves as they so wish."
Le Monde with AFP
Whisper it, but Europe is winning the energy war with Putin
Mild weather, lower consumption and supplies from elsewhere have helped Europe take an advantage.
JANUARY 13, 2023
Halfway through the first winter of Europe’s energy war with Russia, only one side is winning.
When Vladimir Putin warned in September that Europeans would “freeze” if the West stuck to its energy sanctions against Russia, Moscow’s fossil fuel blackmail appeared to be going exactly to plan.
European wholesale gas prices were north of €200 per megawatt hour, around 10 times higher than they had been for most of 2021. Plans were drawn up to cut gas demand and ensure supplies could move across borders to countries with the worst shortages. Regular rolling blackouts in the EU were a very real prospect.
Putin’s strategy — to make life miserable for the European public by shutting off their gas, forcing them to drop their support for Ukraine — looked a potent one.By Joshua Posaner
Boosting supplies
At great expense, European countries hoovered up global supplies of LNG in mid to late 2022, increasing imports from 83 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 to 141 bcm in 2022, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. That offset about three-quarters of the 80 bcm that Europe was no longer receiving from Russia’s pipelines. New LNG import infrastructure is springing up across Europe, including in Germany where six floating terminals will be operational by the end of this year.
Much of the LNG already imported — the bulk of it shipped from the U.S. — is now sitting in Europe’s network of underground storage facilities. Mild weather, combined with steep falls in gas consumption driven by higher prices, mean that those storages are still 82 percent full. That's roughly where they were when Putin made his “freeze” threat four months ago.
On January 1, European stocks were around 31 bcm higher than they had been a year earlier, according to Jack Sharples of the Oxford Institute. “That’s put us in a very good position to start the year.”
Moscow, meanwhile, is starting to feel the effects of the West’s energy countermeasures.
One analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated that the EU’s ban on Russian crude oil imports and the G7’s $60 per barrel price cap are together costing Russia €160 million a day.
Despite sanctions and supply cuts, Moscow made €155 billion from oil and gas exports in 2022 — 30 percent higher than the previous year. But with global oil and gas prices falling, in 2023 the Kremlin’s own estimates say that those revenues will be down 23 percent — a figure some experts think is optimistic.
So has Europe already won the energy war?
“The word ‘won’ is too bold. It’s still early winter and there are lots of things that could still go wrong,” said Dieter Helm, professor of economic policy at New College, Oxford and a former energy adviser to the European Commission. “But Europe has done vastly better than most of the commentators expected.”
“For now, things look good,” an EU diplomat agreed. “The Russians only had one weapon in the energy war: gas. It’s a strong weapon, with strong short-term impact. But they’ve used it already." The diplomat said that the EU's "arsenal" was more diverse, including: boosting renewables, getting supplies from elsewhere and taking steps to use less energy. "But we can’t afford to be complacent.”
That is a message echoed across EU capitals.
“It’s Europe 1, Russia 0,” said one EU energy minister — but the contest is far from over. For months now, European leaders have warned that next winter could be more dangerous than this one, with a tight global LNG market and the possibility of a resurgent China, reopening after COVID lockdowns, competing for a limited supply.
Paying a price
Europe’s strong position in January has also come with a cost.
Industrial output has held up reasonably well but energy-intensive sectors are taking a particularly hard hit, with production down by almost 13 percent year-on-year in November, according to ING.
Governments are also on the hook for vast energy bill support payments to consumers and businesses — totaling €705 billion across Europe according to the Bruegel think tank. Such huge sums will weigh on national budgets for years to come.
But on perhaps the key measure — public and political support for Ukraine — Russia has certainly failed in its attempt to break European resolve. Eurobarometer polling conducted in October and November and released this week shows that 73 percent of EU citizens backed the bloc’s support for Kyiv and sanctions against Russia.
There a few signs that views have changed over the course of the winter. Germany’s far right has spear-headed protests against sanctions and Hungary’s government has frequently pushed back against the EU’s stance on Ukraine — but so far such sentiments have remained a minority pursuit in Europe.
“This is political as well as economic and I think Europeans have shown a remarkable degree of solidarity,” said Helm. “This is a European project, it needs European strategies, and the strength of the European Union has been on great display.”