News round-up, Wednesday, January 11, 2023
“Strained by the need to finance its war machine, the Russian government said on Tuesday that it had posted a $47 billion budget deficit in 2022, which is the second-highest since the break up of the Soviet Union.
The budget gap reached 3.3 trillion rubles in 2022, or 2.3 percent of the size of the Russian economy, Anton Siluanov, the country’s finance minister, said during a government meeting.”
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Russian Mercenary Force Claims to Capture Town in Eastern Ukraine
NYT
Here’s what we know:
Ukraine denied losing control of Soledar, in the Donbas region. A victory there would be Russia’s first in months, after a string of humiliating losses.
The founder of a Russian mercenary force leading Moscow’s assault on the town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine claimed late Tuesday that his troops had seized control of the town, which Ukrainian defense officials denied.
The claim that Soledar had fallen to soldiers-for-hire working for Wagner Group could not be verified, and Ukraine’s defense ministry said on Twitter just before midnight local time that Russia was still trying to capture the town. At close to 1 a.m. on Wednesday, Robert Magyar, a commander of a Ukrainian air reconnaissance group, said in a statement on Telegram that Ukrainian forces were still holding the town.
“True — it’s hell” he wrote, adding the claims were “psychological pressure and propaganda.”
The assault is part of Russia’s broader push in the area around the city of Bakhmut that Moscow sees as important to achieving its goal of occupying all of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. If true, the fall of Soledar, a relatively small municipality, would be Russia’s first significant victory in months, after a string of humiliating losses. Ukraine changed the course of the war with its capture of the Kharkiv region in September and then the city of Kherson in November, successes of far greater magnitude.
Military experts say that although taking Soledar is significant, it does not signal that the city of Bakhmut is about to fall into Russian hands. Ukraine has strongly reinforced its positions in and around Bakhmut, presenting a formidable obstacle to further progress by Moscow.
The entrepreneur who started the Wagner Group, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, maintained in a post on the Telegram messaging app that his troops had control of all of Soledar, though he added that fighting continued.
“A cauldron has been formed in the center of the city, in which urban battles are being fought,” Mr. Prigozhin said.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group, said claims that Russia had taken all of Soledar were false, citing another comment from Mr. Prigozhin earlier Tuesday on Telegram: “The Ukrainian army bravely fights for Bakhmut and Soledar. On the western outskirts of Soledar there are heavy bloody battles.”
In his nightly address on Tuesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine thanked the troops defending Soledar. “Today, I would like to pay special tribute to the warriors of the 46th separate airmobile brigade for their bravery and steadfastness in the defense of Soledar!” he said.
How a tiny, salt-mining town with a prewar population of 10,000 people became a focus of such a sustained assault by Wagner’s forces has been an open question. In his overnight address on Monday, Mr. Zelensky asked, “What did Russia want to gain there?”
The most critical factor is perhaps what Mr. Prigozhin and his mercenaries fighting there have to gain in terms of reputation. In Bakhmut, the Wagner Group, a private military contracting company that has recruited prisoners into its ranks, has become the main force leading the offensive for Russia, and the fighting has become bloodier.
Before the emergence of the Wagner Group’s claims on Tuesday, Britain’s defense ministry said in its daily intelligence update that Russian forces and the Wagner Group were likely now in control of most of Soledar after intense fighting over the past four days. The capture of the city, which is about six miles north of the city of Bakhmut, was likely to be part of “an effort to envelop Bakhmut from the north, and to disrupt Ukrainian lines of communication,” the update said.
A spokesman for the eastern group of Ukraine’s army, Serhiy Cherevatyi, said on national television on Tuesday that Russian artillery had struck Soledar 86 times over the past day. He described the situation as “very challenging.”
The tactics employed by the Wagner Group have resulted in a high number of casualties. In recent days, reporters for The New York Times embedded with a Ukrainian drone crew on the front line saw the bodies of Russian fighters scattered across open ground in the area around Bakhmut. Images and videos on Ukrainian social media in recent days also appear to have come from these aerial reconnaissance missions and show similar scenes.
A correction was made on
Jan. 10, 2023
An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the Russian claim of taking the town of Soledar. It was made on Tuesday, not Thursday.
— Megan Specia, Ivan Nechepurenko and Matthew Mpoke Bigg
Russia posts a $47 billion budget deficit for 2022, its second highest in the post-Soviet era.
Strained by the need to finance its war machine, the Russian government said on Tuesday that it had posted a $47 billion budget deficit in 2022, which is the second-highest since the break up of the Soviet Union.
The budget gap reached 3.3 trillion rubles in 2022, or 2.3 percent of the size of the Russian economy, Anton Siluanov, the country’s finance minister, said during a government meeting.
Russia’s revenues increased by 2.8 trillion rubles in 2022, or $40 billion, but that was not enough to cover rapidly increasing expenditures, which skyrocketed by 6.4 trillion rubles, or $92 billion, officials said.
At the meeting, government officials presented the economic situation as positive, with Mikhail Mishustin, the Russian prime minister, saying that “overall, those indicators aren’t bad.”
Making no specific reference to the war, Mr. Silanov, the finance minister, said: “Despite the geopolitical situation, the restrictions and sanctions, we have fulfilled all our planned goals.”
Still, the posted deficit for 2022 is second only in Russia’s post-Soviet history to the one reported for 2020, the year the coronavirus pandemic unfolded.
In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many experts predicted a catastrophic collapse of the country’s economy from the Western sanctions and other restrictive measures. Yet the Russian economy performed above expectations, buoyed by high commodity prices. And some sanctions, like a cap of $60 per barrel on the price for Russian oil, were introduced later in the year, softening their effect on the economy.
The Russian government has not published a detailed breakdown of its expenditures in 2022, but it is widely assumed that the bulk of the rise can be attributed to increased military spending. The government has financed the deficit by issuing bonds and using money from its rainy-day fund.
A high deficit is likely for this year, too. Russia plans to increase its military spending by a third, and Moscow’s oil revenues are expected to be pressured by the oil price cap, which compels Russian traders to sell crude at a discount.
India launches deep-sea mining project to develop 'blue economy'
Despite the inherent environment risks, New Delhi has launched the deep-sea mining initiative valued at more than €460 million, with hopes of fulfilling its need for rare minerals.
By Sophie Landrin (New Delhi (India), correspondent)
Published on January 11, 2023
Le Monde
With a 7,517 kilometers long coastline and 1,382 islands, India has potentially priceless deposits of unique minerals in the depths of its waters. Despite the inherent environmental risks, New Delhi is determined to tap into them through its Deep Ocean mission, launched in June 2021. With a budget of more than €460 million over five years, the initiative will develop deep-sea mining technologies and resource exploration, study marine biodiversity, purchase a research vessel for ocean exploration and conduct research on ocean climate change.
The subcontinent joined the group of countries allowed to explore the ocean's depths in 2016, receiving the 25th permit granted by the International Seabed Authority (ISA), an autonomous organization within the United Nations Common System. It was awarded a 75,000-square-kilometer site in the central Indian Ocean basin, corresponding to its expanded exclusive economic zone. India will therefore be able to explore its marine resources, including polymetallic sulphides and nodules, gas hydrates and hydrothermal vents.
The government is not hiding its intentions. "The mineral exploration studies will pave the way for commercial exploitation in the near future, once the commercial exploitation code is developed by the International Seabed Authority. This component will contribute to the priority area of the 'blue economy,' namely the exploration and exploitation of minerals and energy of the deep seabed," it said in a statement at the launch of the mission.
Superabundance
The Ministry of Earth Sciences has claimed that by using only 10% of the reserve of these polymetallic nodules available in the region, India will be able to satisfy all its future needs for producing batteries. The figures put forward by the government are staggering: Per preliminary estimates, the country would have 380 million tons of polymetallic nodules, including copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese, worth about $110 billion, within this area.
To explore the depths, the Deep Ocean mission must develop a manned, self-propelled submersible capable of carrying at least three crew members and scientific equipment to a depth of 6,000 meters in the Indian Ocean. It will take four hours to descend and the same amount of time to return to the surface.
India is one of the countries that have severely criticized the French stance of prohibiting all exploitation of the seabed
The vehicle will need to have a range of 12 hours in normal operation and 96 hours in an emergency to ensure crew safety and provide oxygen. The first tests in shallow waters should begin in 2024. India will join the United States, Russia, China, Japan and Australia in the race to the bottom of the ocean.
The design and development of a submersible vehicle, the Matsya 6000 – named after the first avatar of the Hindu god Vishnu – has been entrusted to the Madras (Chennai)-based National Institute of Ocean Technology, a government agency under the Ministry of Earth Sciences that will work in collaboration with the Indian space agency. The project is to be completed by 2026, according to the minister of earth sciences.
Speaking in Parliament on December 21, Minister Jitendra Singh said that the "preliminary design of the vehicle is complete and the various components of the vehicle are being built." In addition, the Indian Maritime University has been tasked with building a low-energy river- sounding drone.
India is one of the countries that have severely criticized the French position of banning all seabed mining and is calling for discussions to ensure responsible and sustainable exploitation of the seabed. The deep-sea mining project is part of its program to develop the "blue economy," a catch-all concept, but one that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hopes will describe one of the engines of economic growth by 2030.
Above all, with its 1.4 billion inhabitants, India has a considerable need for rare metals, electronic products, electric car batteries and more. The government has set itself the goal of having an all-electric car fleet by 2030. In the capital alone, more than 13 million gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicles are currently in use. To reduce its dependence on China, New Delhi is banking on its oceans.
Sophie Landrin(New Delhi (India), correspondent)
Bolsonaro's Mob
The Predictable Attack on Brazil's Democracy
Radical followers of Brazil's ex-president, Jair Bolsonaro, stormed the government district of Brasilía on Sunday. It was entirely predictable, and raises serious questions about the country's security forces.
By Jens Glüsing in Rio de Janeiro
09.01.2023
They were scenes reminiscent of the storming of the United States Capitol almost exactly two years ago, a violent and predictable assault on Brazil’s state institutions that was supported by numerous police officers. Since Friday, followers of right-wing radical ex-President Jair Bolsonaro had been gathering in Brasilía, allegedly for a protest in front of the National Congress. Bolsonaro’s hardcore supporters refuse to accept his defeat at the hands of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in late October. For the past several weeks, they have been demanding that the military take over.
On Saturday alone, hundreds of buses full of Bolsonaro supporters from around the country arrived in the capital. The justice minister warned security officials of the impending danger and asked that the Esplanada dos Ministerios, the vast mall leading to the National Congress, and Three Powers Plaza – so named because it is home to the Congress, the presidential office and the country’s highest court – be closed to demonstrators.
But the Civil Police of the Federal District, which is in charge of security in Brasilía, did nothing. Indeed, they even escorted the "demonstrators" in the direction of the seat of government. And those gathered in the crowd had made no secret that they were planning a raid of the kind undertaken by supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump on January 6, 2021. For days, Bolsonaro supporters had been discussing the storming of the National Congress in WhatsApp groups.
When the Bolsonaro followers then assaulted the building on Sunday, some police officers could be seen laughing and taking photos with their mobile phones. The chief of security for the Federal District, Anderson Torres, who had served as justice minister under Bolsonaro, has since been sacked. He was on his way to Florida, likely to meet with his former boss, who relocated to the U.S. state after losing the election. It is considered possible that Torres had known about the coming assault on the country’s parliament, or even took part in planning it.
The governor of the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha, also a former Bolsonaro ally, promised that he would mobilize more police officers. By then, though, it was already too late. Some security personnel, armed with pepper spray, tried in vain to hold back the mob.
Thousands of people stormed Three Powers Plaza, with hundreds of them forcing their way into the National Congress building, the presidential palace and the seat of the Supreme Federal Court. They laid waste to offices and plenary halls, posing in the Senate and filming with their mobile phones. Only after about an hour were the police able to drive the vandals out of the presidential palace and the high court with the help of teargas. Thousands of people were still gathered out in front of the National Congress building.
Late Sunday night, the Supreme Federal Court suspended Rocha for 90 days, saying he did too little to prevent the violence.
Brazil’s parliament and highest court are on summer break until the end of the month. Lula was also out of the capital when the raids commenced, visiting victims of severe recent rainfall in the city of Araraquara in the state of São Paulo. His face flushed with anger, Lula addressed the press on Sunday night prior to returning to Brasilía, saying the federal government would intervene in the security apparatus of the Federal District, essentially placing the capital’s security in the hands of the president. "These people are fascists," Lula said of the vandals, promising that all those who participated in or helped plan the raids would be "found and penalized." He accused Bolsonaro of having inspired the storming of Brazil’s democratic institutions. "Nothing like this has ever happened in the history of the Republic," he said.
Questions about the Security Forces
Lula only took over the presidency a week ago. Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians celebrated his return to power, with Brasilía gripped by a party atmosphere. But that atmosphere has now vanished. The threat to Brazil’s democracy did not come to an end with Lula’s inauguration and is likely to continue hanging over the country for the next several months. The most pressing question is how the country’s security forces and military will respond.
Sunday’s riot has once again demonstrated the degree to which the country’s militarily organized police forces, which are under the control of the state governors, have been infiltrated by Bolsonaro supporters. Lula can really only trust the federal police force, but even there, he must be wary. The military has thus far stayed in the background and there doesn’t appear to be an imminent threat of a military putsch. But that doesn’t mean that the troops will readily obey all orders from the president, who is the commander-in-chief of Brazil’s armed forces.
Lula’s justice minister twice ordered the military to clear the tent camp that Bolsonaro followers established in front of army headquarters in Brasilía after Lula’s election on October 30. That tent camp is where radical Bolsonaro followers prepared the "protests" against Lula’s victory ceremony on Dec. 13, during which numerous buses and cars were set on fire. The radical Bolsonaro acolyte who placed an explosive device on a tanker truck intending to blow it up at the Brasilía airport also claims to have planned his attack here. But the military did nothing.
A week ago, tent-camp occupants threatened DER SPIEGEL correspondent Jens Glüsing when he visited the site. Guards from army headquarters escorted the journalist out, but they told him they could not guarantee his safety.
Bolsonaro's Reaction
The radical Bolsonaro fans are a minority among the ex-president’s supporters. They resemble a religious sect and live in a parallel world – and are incited by radical pastors from Pentecostal churches that support Bolsonaro. Lula’s government is led by "demons," said one camp occupant who called herself "Eva." "We are experiencing the day of the Apocalypse." Whereas many of Bolsonaro’s former political allies have distanced themselves from him in recent weeks, his hardcore supporters remain loyal. And they forgive him for having left the country for Florida. "I would have fled as well," Eva told DER SPIEGEL. After all, she added, Bolsonaro is being persecuted.
Initially on Sunday, Bolsonaro remained silent about the violence in Brasilía. Late last night, though, he turned to Twitter to reject Lula’s contention that he had incited the riots. Peaceful demonstrations, he wrote, are part of democracy, but the storming of government buildings went too far.
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If it is proven that Bolsonaro had incited the mob’s raid on Brazil’s democratic institutions, he could be arrested immediately upon his return to the country. It remains unclear how the U.S. might react to Bolsonaro’s presence on American soil given the suspicions that he may have been behind what amounts to an attempted putsch. Bolsonaro likely feels relatively safe in proximity to Trump in Florida, but U.S. President Joe Biden, one suspects, isn’t pleased about hosting right-wing radicals from Brazil.
On Sunday evening, governments from across Latin America and Europe expressed their solidarity with President Lula and the Brazilian democracy. The gesture of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who met Lula before he was sworn in and was photographed arm-in-arm with the Brazilian president-elect, carries new meaning against the backdrop of Sunday. And it is clear that Lula is dependent on the international support of all democracies.