“The recent 10% tariff on Canadian oil exports to the U.S. is set to ripple through the energy landscape of both nations. But that's not all—whispers of covert sabotage targeting vital infrastructure have surfaced as a looming threat tied to this tariff…

…cutting high-voltage underwater cables has sparked alarm, especially in areas like Northern Europe that depend heavily on offshore wind energy. These cables are more than just wires; they are the essential veins that carry the electricity harvested from the sea to the heart of the power grids on land.

All opinions expressed in these texts are the sole responsibility of Germán & Co. Likewise, we reaffirm our commitment to objectivity and to the most accurate data.

A Comparative Analysis of Two Elephants: Inconsistencies in Tax Tariffs and Their Implications for the Energy Sector…

Glory, glory, hallelujah! Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Baltic Obscure Trade…

The historical context of trade wars illustrates their cyclical nature and profound effects on global commerce. Nations may resort to such conflicts to safeguard domestic industries or rectify perceived trade imbalances. Nevertheless, the unintended repercussions—such as economic recessions, strained international relations, and disruptions in trade—often surpass any immediate advantages. Furthermore, recent instances of politically motivated sabotage targeting critical infrastructure have exacerbated the disruption of essential supply chains, leading to adverse effects such as inflation that negatively impact broad segments of the population. As globalization continues to progress, policymakers are confronted with the persistent challenge of reconciling protectionist strategies with the benefits of free trade and international cooperation.

In addition to historical conflicts, there exist numerous instances of current trade disputes…

Significant disagreements have emerged in U.S.-EU trade relations, particularly concerning the subsidies provided to major aircraft manufacturers, specifically Boeing and Airbus. Furthermore, the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum has intensified tensions within transatlantic trade dynamics. The ramifications of Brexit have further complicated this situation; the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union has introduced substantial uncertainty regarding customs arrangements, trade agreements, and regulatory standards.

Additionally, the unexpected —disruptions to global supply chains— caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, have exposed critical vulnerabilities within these systems. These challenges have prompted extensive discourse on the necessity of reshoring manufacturing and diversifying supply sources, highlighting the urgent need for more resilient economic strategies in an increasingly interconnected global landscape.

Historical evidence indicates that —trade wars seldom yield clear beneficiaries… Although nations may initiate such conflicts to safeguard domestic industries or rectify trade imbalances, the long-term repercussions frequently encompass economic downturns, job losses, increased consumer prices, and strained international relations.

A pertinent example is the —Smoot-Hawley Tariff— of the 1930s, which aimed to protect U.S. industries from foreign competition but ultimately provoked retaliatory measures from other countries, leading to a collapse in global trade and exacerbating the Great Depression. Similarly, the recent U.S.-China trade war disrupted supply chains, adversely affecting both economies, with American businesses and consumers facing elevated costs while China contended with slower growth and shifting global trade alliances.

Even in instances where trade wars may yield temporary advantages—such as compelling trade concessions or enhancing domestic production—historical patterns suggest that the long-term detriments often outweigh any short-term benefits.

Retaliatory tariffs, market uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions engender instability that adversely impacts businesses, workers, and consumers on a global scale. Ultimately, trade wars have demonstrated to be costly endeavours, wherein all parties frequently endure economic repercussions rather than achieving definitive victories.

Moreover, trade wars have evolved beyond mere tariffs and economic sanctions; they have transformed into hybrid conflicts that encompass sabotage of critical infrastructure, cyber warfare, and heightened geopolitical tensions.

Covert sabotage of critical infrastructure has emerged as a significant threat…

The recent severing of high-voltage underwater cables has raised significant concerns, particularly in regions heavily reliant on offshore wind energy, such as Northern Europe. These cables are critical infrastructure, serving as the lifelines that transmit electricity generated by offshore wind farms to mainland power grids. Any disruption to these cables—whether through sabotage, accidental damage, or natural causes—can have far-reaching consequences for energy security, economic stability, and the transition to renewable energy.

In 2023, reports emerged of incidents involving the sabotage or damage of underwater cables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, regions that are central to Europe's offshore wind energy ambitions. These areas are home to some of the world's largest offshore wind farms, which supply a growing share of electricity to countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands. The timing of these incidents is particularly concerning, as Europe is accelerating its shift toward renewable energy to meet climate goals and reduce dependence on fossil fuels, especially in the wake of the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

These acts of hybrid warfare, which intertwine economic, political, and physical disruptions, represent a contemporary extension of trade wars. Rather than merely imposing tariffs or trade restrictions, nations (or non-state actors) are increasingly targeting infrastructure critical to trade, energy, and communications. This evolution heightens the stakes in global economic conflicts, rendering them more unpredictable and potentially detrimental.

The insurance company presents two irreconcilable perspectives regarding the same issue…

The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York City resulted in unprecedented insurance claims, making it one of the most significant and complex events in the history of the insurance industry. Here’s an overview of how insurance companies, including those operating in markets like Lloyd’s of London, handled the claims. And the results of the claim was at insurance companies, including those in markets like Lloyd’s of London, ultimately paid out billions of dollars in claims related to the 9/11 attacks. While the process was complex and fraught with challenges, the industry demonstrated its ability to respond to unprecedented events and provide financial support to those affected. The attacks also led to important changes in the way terrorism risks are insured and managed, ensuring greater resilience in the face of future threats.

But under the same conditions, terrorismen, Lloyd’s reluctance to pay for the damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines stems from a combination of factors, including policy exclusions for sabotage, unclear attribution of responsibility, geopolitical sensitivities, high financial costs, and legal complexities. The incident highlights the challenges of insuring critical infrastructure in an era of heightened geopolitical tensions and underscores the need for clearer frameworks to address such risks in the future.

Lloyd's of London has been reported to deny insurance claims based on several contentious issues. Firstly, they cited "unclear attribution of responsibility," which is a somewhat misleading assertion. It is widely recognized that the most powerful government in the world attempted to prevent the explosion days prior to the incident, and there is a general consensus regarding the individuals accountable for the event. Furthermore, the reference to "geopolitical sensibilities" lacks clarity, particularly given that the pipeline was strategically located in international (offshore) waters to circumvent regulatory permits and tolls, while also being sufficiently distanced from conflict zones. This situation is analogous to the substantial investments (millions of euros) made in offshore wind energy projects in the Baltic and North Seas.

President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from Canada, China, and Mexico (pausad)…

The energy sector is experience significant disruptions as a result of the newly imposed tariffs. In the United States, the introduction of a 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports is projected to elevate costs for U.S. refiners, many of whom rely heavily on Canadian heavy crude oil. As a consequence, American consumers may face an increase in gasoline prices. Additionally, U.S. energy companies may be forced to adjust their supply chains by exploring alternative sources or renegotiating trade agreements to mitigate the impact of these tariffs.

In retaliation, Canada has swiftly implemented its own countermeasures. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced a 25% tariff on approximately CAD 155 billion worth of American goods, which is scheduled to take effect on February 4, 2025. These measures aim to protect Canadian industries from potential economic fallout. Furthermore, Canada is likely to pursue the diversification of its energy export markets to reduce its dependence on the United States, potentially strengthening trade relations with other global partners.

The introduction of these tariffs is expected to have far-reaching consequences beyond the immediate parties involved.

Volatility in Global Energy Prices: The tariffs and retaliatory actions likely lead to fluctuations in global energy prices, affecting supply and demand dynamics.
Inflationary Pressures: Increased costs in the energy sector may contribute to rising inflation rates, which will impact consumers and businesses across the affected countries.

The story continues with —a growing trade war involving the Natural Gas Cartel, which will have a big effect on the world stage…

Although a formal "natural gas cartel" akin to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) does not exist, a coalition of significant gas-exporting nations has collaborated to influence global gas prices and supply. (7) The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is often regarded as the closest parallel, with some analysts suggesting it could evolve into an "OPEC for gas."

1. Overview of the GECF:

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an intergovernmental organization comprising major natural gas-producing and exporting countries. Established in 2001 and headquartered in Doha, Qatar, the GECF encompasses nations that collectively control over 70% of the world's natural gas reserves and nearly 50% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Key member countries include Russia, Iran, Qatar, Algeria, Venezuela, Egypt, Nigeria, Bolivia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Norway, Kazakhstan, and Iraq participate as observers but are not full members.

2. The GECF's Role Compared to OPEC

In contrast to OPEC, which actively establishes production quotas to influence oil prices, the GECF does not currently regulate natural gas production or pricing. However, member nations engage in cooperative strategies that impact the global gas market, including:

- Coordinating LNG and pipeline exports

- Negotiating long-term supply contracts

- Influencing pricing mechanisms

- Expanding infrastructure, such as gas pipelines and LNG terminals

Russia, Iran, and Qatar—the three largest holders of natural gas reserves—have contemplated forming a gas "super cartel" to enhance their control over global energy markets, although no formal production quotas have been instituted.

3. Russia's Dominance and Geopolitical Implications:

As the largest natural gas exporter, Russia plays a pivotal role in the global gas trade. Before the Ukraine conflict, Russia supplied approximately 40% of Europe's natural gas through pipelines such as Nord Stream 1 and 2. However, following sanctions and escalating geopolitical tensions, European nations have sought to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, increasingly turning to LNG from the United States, Qatar, and other suppliers.

Despite this shift, Russia continues to exert influence over global gas markets by:

- Adjusting supply levels through the state-owned Gazprom

- Establishing partnerships with China and India to access alternative markets

- Strengthening alliances with GECF members to advocate for price control strategies

4. Distinctions Between the Gas and Oil Markets:

Natural gas presents unique challenges compared to oil, as it is more difficult to transport and store, resulting in regional price disparities influenced by pipeline and LNG infrastructure. The three primary pricing hubs are:

- Henry Hub (U.S.) – The benchmark for U.S. natural gas prices

- TTF (Netherlands) – Europe's leading gas pricing index

- JKM (Japan/Korea) – Asia's leading LNG pricing index

Due to the inherent inflexibility of gas markets compared to oil, it is more challenging for a cartel like the GECF to exert comprehensive control over prices. However, as LNG infrastructure develops, the potential for a more cartel-like structure may increase, enhancing the GECF's influence over global pricing.

5. Prospects for a Natural Gas Cartel:

While the GECF does not currently operate as a fully coordinated cartel, there are apprehensions that Russia, Iran, and Qatar may advocate for stronger collaboration, particularly as:

- Europe diminishes its reliance on Russian gas

- Demand from Asia (notably China and India) escalates

- New LNG projects transform the market landscape

Should GECF members begin to establish export quotas, a genuine "Gas OPEC" could emerge, potentially leading to price volatility reminiscent of the oil market.

In conclusion, while the GECF is not an entire cartel yet, growing member cooperation suggests that a future alliance is possible. This potential cartel's direction will depend on policy alignment among GECF members and global reactions to their influence, especially as natural gas becomes crucial in cleaner energy transitions

Finally, the last…

Trade wars have been a recurring phenomenon throughout history, characterized by overt and covert confrontations as well as complex mechanisms, shaped by a variety of economic, political, and geopolitical factors. These conflicts arise when countries implement tariffs, quotas, or other trade restrictions in an effort to protect their domestic industries, address trade imbalances, or gain a competitive edge. Although the motivations for these disputes may vary, their consequences extend across global markets, economies, and diplomatic relationships.

For a taste of our latest publications, check out our work at https://muckrack.com/german-toro-ghio/articles!

The Owner of Non-Man and Other Tales… Second edition, revised and expanded…

Help us make a dream come true…

From a young age we listen to the instructions of the elderly in the sense that we must be able to choose our path in life. It's a nice metaphor.

There are those who, complying with this, prepare themselves to travel the highways of life, provide themselves with fast engines and soft seats. Others, simpler, choose secondary roads where the speed does not produce so much vertigo and the tolls are cheaper. Many have to join forces and travel the kilometers in collective buses that force the touches and strident music. And there are too many who have no other option than to walk along the humble paths crossing puddles or boulders and threatened by wild beasts or insects. This is the vineyard of the Lord, and everyone can make use of their free will. Say.

Reading the stories of Germán Toro Ghio one discovers that there are also those who chose all paths. And they also added the alternatives of lifts, elevators (and descenders), cliffs, flying devices and perhaps how many more.

With its eight stories, The Owners of No Man's Land takes us to a world so real that, unfortunately, we tend to forget it. From the first story, he (Germán) rides the maelstrom of a roller coaster in which he mixes the discomforts of a Moscow hotel with the adventures in the Nicaraguan jungle. He is a de facto witness to the invasion of the USA army in Panama and his cousin of millenary stubbornness at the same time, without us being able to deduce which of the two experiences was more dangerous. He celebrates supposed birthdays in the company of an aphonic Fidel Castro (what a contradiction!) in a city of Havana corroded by sea salt or political blunders. He walks through one of the most unusual borders in the world, the one that divides the island of Hispaniola. He witnesses the sun sheltering us with unusual loves, in this case, his friend "Pepe" who, on a streak of good fortune, attracts them to a stale gypsy princess and a one-eyed gypsy king in the nights of Madrid and prologues his luck in the world of love to an island called Grinda in the Stockholm archipelago where Alexander's honey captivates.

Germán also takes us to a café in Paris where Ernest Hemingway is in existential conversations about life, accompanied by the sweet notes of a Santa Teresa rum, which invades the soul with harmony and helps the journalist and writer try to persuade some young gang members to change the course of their lives, in this world of violence, organ trafficking, and arms. He evokes the spirit of the Nicaraguan poet and priest Ernesto Cardenal, particularly in his mesmerising "Ode to Marilyn Monroe". This remarkable work invites him to explore the labyrinth of the mind's afflictions, guided by the brushstrokes of legendary artists such as Sorolla, Munch, Botero, and Modigliani. Alongside this artistic journey, we encounter the candid whispers of Truman Capote in his poignant "Unanswered Prayers", which lays bare the frailties of our contemporary society, political systems, and monarchies. Ultimately, Germán leads us to a heartwarming conclusion with the charming figure of "il Nono", a grandfatherly character we all wish we could have known.

The book is magnified by experiences that have taken place outside the battlefields, far from palaces and ambitions. In other words, the principle of freedom of expression is paramount, even when individuals may endure defamation's repercussions. With these stories, Germán Toro Ghio allows us to taste something of everything he keeps in his cupboard, and I hope he will continue to cook and deliver in successive books.

*Juan Forch, Puerto Octay, Chile

*Film director, writer, and political scientist is renowned for the 1990 "NO" campaign. / https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/movies/oscar-nominated-no-stirring-debate-in-chile.html

PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com

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O gods, women, and men with the souls of gods and goodwill, we request your solidarity and support for launching the second revised and extended edition of "The Owner of Non-Man Lan and Other Tales" in November 2025. We have already contacted a senior editor at Penguin Random House in London to help us create a remarkable and distinctive book handcrafted to serve as an exceptional corporate gift.

Thanks in advance...

**You can't possibly deny me...**

**Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…**

In December 2023, Energy Central recognized outstanding contributors within the Energy & Sustainability Network during the 'Top Voices' event. The recipients of this honor were highlighted in six articles, showcasing the acknowledgment from the community. The platform facilitates professionals in disseminating their work, engaging with peers, and collaborating with industry influencers. Congratulations are extended to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for their exemplary demonstration of expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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The Saga of Trade Wars: A Journey Through History and Its Consequences…