The Recalibration of Global Power: …Toward a Tripolar World Order?
“ Energy, Rare Earth, and AI in the New Geopolitical Calculus: A Probable Peace Agreement between Russia and Ukraine Brokered by the USA Distant from Europe….
A Yalta 2.0 Agreement: Russia, China, and the USA?
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Hello everyone…
In this intense week, where something new happens every hour, we have attempted to summarise the most important events and our perspective on the global spectrum. We are concluding this post at 12:30 a.m. on Friday the 14th. Three hours ago, U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump will negotiate directly with his counterparts from Russia, Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, whilst NATO allies will play a role. But, he did not clarify whether this would occur at the negotiating table. After 22 days of seemingly endless signed executive orders, one can say that the Trump administration will fulfil all its promises. Finally, we work with accurate just data only. Good night to me, and good afternoon to you.
That says:
The post-pandemic world is witnessing a tectonic shift in global power structures that challenges the West’s assumptions of perpetual dominance. What began as a public health crisis has metastasized into a reckoning resulting from decades of strategic complacency. The COVID-19 pandemic—whose origins remain debated but whose consequences are indisputable—laid bare the fragility of hyper-globalized systems, from medical supply chains to technology ecosystems.
The Great Unraveling: From Efficiency to Vulnerability…
The West’s Faustian bargain with globalization has reached its inflection point. Over three decades, the transfer of industrial capabilities to Asia—not merely factories but entire innovation ecosystems—was rationalized as an economic inevitability. Yet this "efficiency trap" has birthed a dangerous paradox: nations that championed free trade now find themselves hollowed, dependent on rivals for everything from semiconductors to antibiotics. The cost-cutting logic of quarterly earnings reports has collided with the imperatives of national resilience, exposing how industrial offshoring became a silent transfer of geopolitical leverage.
Simply put, we lived in a bubble like Alice in Wonderland. We embraced the allure of cheap goods, the cost of driving the nation into bankruptcy for its industries— while trading away our finest treasures and natural wealth to the rising dragon. The ancient power grew stronger through our dependence, silently reinvesting the riches gained from our pursuit of comfort, albeit cheaply. With calculated patience and millennia of wisdom, the dragon's influence spread like tendrils across every continent, every city, every street. What appears as scattered, independent shops in our neighbourhoods are scales of the same dragon, parts of a vast network that now encircles the globe. The truth becomes clear: these are not isolated ventures but extensions of a single, massive empire woven into the fabric of our daily lives. But, another fundamental reason is the geopolitically neglected state of Western, European, political authorities.
Europe’s Regulatory Quagmire: A Case Study in Self-Sabotage…
Bloomberg reports a new energy crisis Ad Portas.
The continent’s energy crisis serves as a cautionary tale of ideological overreach. Obsession with environmental purity—manifested in labyrinthine regulations and the premature dismantling of nuclear infrastructure—has left Europe scrambling to restart shuttered power plants while rationing electricity. The irony is palpable: nations that have lectured the world on climate leadership now risk facing a process of energy poverty, their grids buckling under the weight of contradictory policies. (1) (1a)
Simple put and Why?
Due to the trend of excessive regulations, particularly in environmental matters, there is an assumption that the more one complicates an issue, the wiser one becomes by imposing more regulations. (2)
The consequences of this mad trend are, without a doubt, the critical factors in today's energy crisis (3) that stem from the strategic miscalculations of Western Europe's leadership. In pursuing an idealised world, policymakers lost sight of fundamental priorities, neglecting vital infrastructure from the local to national level. Their obsession with excessive regulation and bureaucracy stifled domestic energy production and development. Every attempt to establish new energy infrastructure became entangled in complex regulatory frameworks and endless administrative hurdles.
The costs of these choices are now starkly apparent in our insufficient electrical power capacity. Perhaps the most telling irony lies in nuclear energy policy: nations that decommissioned their nuclear plants in 2023, driven by ideological rather than practical considerations, are now scrambling to reverse course and restart these facilities. (3) This policy whiplash exemplifies the short-sighted decision-making contributing to our energy vulnerabilities.
Contradictory policies and regulatory overreach have left Western nations in a precarious position. They struggle to maintain reliable energy supplies while navigating an increasingly complex global energy model. This situation is a stark reminder that energy policy must balance environmental aspirations with practical necessities and strategic security considerations.
The matter does not end there, as a Bloomberg analysis from October last year announced the possibility of an energy crisis by 2025. (4) This contrasts with a recent —EU report emphasising that the electricity sector was performing well—. The forecast is attributed to rising fuel prices, particularly natural gas, and recent fluctuations in fuel, which may lead to this dire prediction being realised. It was leaked yesterday that the EU energy commission in Brussels discussed introducing a cap on the price of electricity (5), which the authorities of the European Union have subsequently denied... Now, the question arises as to what tools the political authorities of the old continent must use to alleviate this crisis...
Competition for rare earth elements exemplifies a new imperial dynamic.
China’s rare earth gambit exemplifies this new era of resource nationalism. By controlling 90% of refined rare earths and weaponizing export controls, Beijing has exposed the fiction of "decoupled" markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. response—from Trump’s attempted $500 billion resource deal with Ukraine to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act—reveals a belated recognition that economic security now demands mercantilist tactics.
Simple Put.
China's declaration of rare earth metals as state property, which controls approximately 60% of global production and 90% of refined rare earths, signals a strategic assertion of power that challenges fundamental assumptions regarding free market economics. This action, along with their ban on exporting rare earth refining technologies and critical elements such as gallium and germanium, illustrates how economic integration can serve as a potent instrument of national strategy. (6) (6a)
President Donald Trump's request for $ 500 billion in rare earth elements from Ukraine in exchange for ongoing support. (7) resources and his focus on securing returns on investment through natural resource trades reflect an increasing awareness of these strategic realities. On President Donald Trump's 21st day in the White House, it is easy to discern his focus on recovering all the ground that the United States had lost in the last 20 years as a power nation in the global context. President Trump's executive order could have a cost, especially concerning tariffs. His reflections on this “necessary measure” could "depict" (inflation).
The AI Arms Race: Powering the Future or Consuming It?
The exponential growth of AI infrastructure presents a complex equation:
325 TWh – Projected annual energy demand of global data centers by 2028 (equivalent to Spain’s total consumption)
812.5 billion gallons – Water required to generate this power, enough to sustain 9 billion people for a day
At Paris’ AI summit, U.S. Vice President JD Vance framed this as a civilizational imperative: "To regulate AI is to surrender it." His warning against "ethical overengineering" underscores Washington’s determination to dominate the algorithmic frontier—a stance bolstered by France’s nuclear-powered energy surplus, itself a legacy of pragmatic policymaking. Will it become a mere spectator to a new Great Game? Macron’s energy gambit and Brussels’ faltering price caps reveal a continent torn between green idealism and survivalic. Amidst a complex political landscape marked by domestic challenges—from pension reforms to social unrest—French President Emmanuel Macron has drawn notable praise from geopolitical strategist Henry Kissinger, who reportedly identified him as one of Europe’s most adept leaders.
“Deepened lost in diplomacy...
Mr. Henry Kissinger, during his interview for the Portfolio Magazine at the French restaurant Jubilee in downtown Manhattan, New York, on July 27, 2018, warned of the urgent need to broaden global communication channels, particularly with China. He emphasized the potential for global order disruptions if this critical diplomatic work is still pending.
In this interview, in Mr. Kissinger's eyes, French President Emmanuel Macron stands out as a commendable world leader with a unique and expansive vision. Macron's ability to think beyond conventional boundaries has positioned him as a significant influencer on the global stage. Despite this, his attempts to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin have thus far proven unsuccessful. Macron's efforts to establish a productive dialogue with Putin still need to catch up... The paradox of world leaders knowing and accepting Russia's impending invasion of Ukraine two years in advance is a striking revelation that challenges our understanding of international relations and diplomacy… (8c)
Such recognition aligns with Macron’s assertive role in shaping European Union policies, particularly in energy and climate diplomacy. This acclaim coincides with Macron’s recent announcement that France, leveraging its nuclear energy surplus, will prioritize supplying power to data centers—a move that underscores both economic pragmatism and strategic foresight.
France’s energy surplus stems from its unparalleled reliance on nuclear power, which generates approximately 70% of its electricity, the highest share globally. After pandemic-related delays and technical setbacks temporarily idled reactors in 2022, the country’s nuclear fleet has returned to full capacity. This resurgence positions France as a rare bastion of energy stability in Europe, which is still grappling with the aftershocks of reduced Russian gas supplies. By channeling this surplus toward data centers—energy-intensive hubs critical to artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure—Macron is capitalizing on a dual opportunity: attracting high-tech investment and burnishing France’s environmental credentials.
The strategy is shrewdly calibrated. Data centers demand vast, uninterrupted power, and France’s low-carbon nuclear energy offers a competitive edge in an era where sustainability is both a regulatory mandate and a corporate priority. Tech giants like Amazon and Google, seeking to align with EU climate goals, are increasingly drawn to regions with reliable clean energy. Macron’s pivot promises economic dividends and reinforces France’s geopolitical influence. By positioning the nation as a hub for green tech infrastructure, he strengthens its role in EU energy policy debates, particularly in advocating for nuclear power’s inclusion in the bloc’s renewable energy taxonomy—a stance that often clashes with Germany’s anti-nuclear posture.
Yet Macron’s energy gambit is not without risks. France’s aging nuclear reactors have faced recurring issues, including corrosion concerns that forced shutdowns in 2022, highlighting vulnerabilities in the system. Public skepticism over nuclear safety and waste management persists, even as the government invests in next-generation reactors. Moreover, prioritizing data centers over exporting surplus energy to neighbors like Germany—still reliant on gas and renewables—could strain EU solidarity, underscoring the tension between national interests and continental unity.
Kissinger’s alleged endorsement of Macron reflects a broader recognition of the French president’s ability to navigate these complexities. By marrying nuclear revitalization with digital infrastructure ambitions, Macron seeks to solidify France’s status as both an energy anchor and a technological innovator in Europe. However, the long-term success of this strategy hinges on maintaining nuclear reliability, addressing environmental concerns, and balancing EU collaboration with competitive economic priorities. In a continent navigating energy insecurity and climate urgency, Macron’s bet on nuclear-powered data centers may well define France’s role in shaping Europe’s future—both as a leader and a lightning rod. (8) (8a) (8b)
Are 90 minutes enough to fix the world?
The New Tripolar Calculus: Yalta 2.0 or Global Fracture?
Three spheres are crystallizing:
America’s Tech-Military Complex
China’s Manufacturing-Resource Nexus
Russia’s Energy-Geopolitical Leverage
Put simple.
This technological positioning gains more profound significance when viewed alongside the recent direct communications between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Their dialogue, conspicuously excluding European stakeholders, suggests dramatically restructuring post-Cold War diplomatic architectures. This bilateral engagement, bypassing traditional alliance structures, points toward an emerging tripolar world order where power is concentrated among three major players, each wielding distinct forms of influence: the United States with its technological and military might, China with its manufacturing prowess and expanding technological capabilities, and Russia leveraging its vast natural resources.
The timing of these developments takes on historical weight as we approach the 80th anniversary of World War II on May 9. The prospect of a potential "Yalta Agreement 2.0"—where major powers might reshape global spheres of influence without European participation—looms as a concerning possibility. Unlike the original Yalta Conference, where China played a crucial role, today's geopolitical realignment could see a different configuration of power brokers, potentially marginalising traditional European allies.
For Europe, the stakes could not be higher. The possibility of major powers negotiating a new global arrangement without European input—particularly on a date as symbolically significant as the World War II anniversary—would represent more than a diplomatic slight; it could signal a fundamental shift in Europe's position in the global power hierarchy. This scenario underscores the urgent need for European nations to strengthen their strategic autonomy and reassess their role in an increasingly multipolar world.
The exclusion of European voices from these high-level discussions raises significant questions regarding the future role of traditional allies in shaping global policy. This shift could hasten Europe's efforts to develop strategic autonomy, particularly regarding energy security and defence capabilities.
The emerging tripolar structure, while potentially providing new frameworks for conflict resolution, also creates its own set of challenges. The complex interplay between resource control, technological dominance, and manufacturing capability suggests that competition—rather than cooperation—may continue to characterize international relations, regardless of any immediate diplomatic breakthroughs.
This evolving situation underscores the need for a more sophisticated understanding of how power operates in the contemporary world, where control over critical resources, technology, and supply chains often proves as crucial as traditional military or economic might. (9)
Reference:
(1) https://energycentral.com/c/gn/west-needs-russia-power-its-nuclear-comeback
(1a) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-price-cap-destabilize-markets-212951790.html
(2) https://energycentral.com/c/cp/coming-electricity-crisis%E2%80%A6
(4) The article is inserted in this edition.
(6a) https://energycentral.com/c/cp/us-and-eu-begin-negotiations-critical-minerals-access-ev-batteries
(7) https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-demands-500b-in-rare-earths-from-ukraine-for-support/
(8) https://time.com/7221099/jd-vance-ai-paris-summit/
(8a) https://energycentral.com/c/cp/tech-billionaires-bet-fusion-holy-grail-business
(8b) https://www.techradar.com/pro/france-plans-to-pledge-one-gigawatt-of-nuclear-power-for-ai
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Europe’s Energy Crisis in 2025: A Fragile Balance Between Progress and Peril
By Clara Voss, Senior Energy Analyst*, Bloomberg
Three years after the Russia-Ukraine war plunged Europe into its most severe energy crisis since the 1970s, the continent has managed to stave off disaster—but at a steep cost. While emergency measures like LNG imports and market reforms have stabilized supplies, Europe’s energy landscape remains volatile, exposing deep structural flaws and unresolved tensions between security, affordability, and climate goals.
The rush to replace Russian gas with liquefied natural gas (LNG) has reshaped Europe’s energy map. New terminals in Germany, France, and Greece have boosted import capacity to 250 billion cubic meters annually, enough to replace nearly all pre-war Russian imports. But this pivot has strings attached. Reliance on U.S. LNG, which now accounts for 55% of EU imports, has entangled Europe in global price wars and geopolitical risks, particularly as Middle East tensions escalate. Spot prices remain stubbornly high, triple pre-crisis levels, and analysts warn of looming “stranded assets” as renewable energy growth begins to eclipse demand for gas. Germany’s Uniper recently mothballed two floating LNG terminals—a symbolic reminder of the precariousness of this new dependency.
Renewables, meanwhile, tell a story of impressive growth tempered by growing pains. Wind and solar now supply 45% of EU electricity, up from 37% in 2022, with Denmark’s colossal *Energy Island* project in the North Sea and Spain’s solar farms leading the charge. Yet these victories are undercut by persistent grid bottlenecks and a storage crisis. Solar farms in southern Europe routinely flood markets with excess midday power, crashing prices to near zero and straining profitability. Battery storage, though expanding, still covers just four hours of EU-wide demand, while green hydrogen—touted as a silver bullet—remains confined to pilot projects. “We’re winning on volume but losing on value,” warns BloombergNEF’s Isabelle Edwards. “Without smarter grids and demand flexibility, renewables risk becoming victims of their own success.”
Nuclear energy has staged an unexpected comeback, particularly in France and Sweden, where next-gen reactors and small modular designs aim to revive the industry. But the path is rocky. France’s Flamanville-3 reactor, plagued by €20 billion cost overruns, has become a cautionary tale, while Germany’s bitter *Atomkraft-Debatte* rages on. Industrial giants like BASF openly lobby for a nuclear restart to curb energy costs, highlighting the political minefield facing policymakers.
Market reforms, once hailed as a solution, now face backlash. The EU’s 2024 overhaul decoupled electricity prices from gas, stabilizing household bills but sparking accusations of market distortion. Governments now subsidize renewables through direct contracts, sidelining competition, while Germany controversially pays coal plants €4 billion annually to act as emergency backups—a stark contradiction to climate pledges. “We’ve patched the system but not fixed it,” laments Bruegel’s Simone Tagliapietra. “The true cost of the green transition is still being hidden.”
Perhaps the most insidious crisis is Europe’s industrial exodus. Energy-intensive sectors, from chemicals to steel, continue fleeing to regions with cheaper power. BASF has slashed EU production by a quarter, relocating to gas-rich Louisiana, while ThyssenKrupp and ArcelorMittal now produce “green steel” in sun-drenched Saudi Arabia and Australia. A €300 billion EU subsidy package has slowed the bleeding but failed to stem the tide, raising existential questions about Europe’s industrial future.
Climate change, meanwhile, adds cruel twists to an already complex equation. This summer’s droughts crippled hydropower in southern Europe, forcing a revival of gas-fired generation, while record heatwaves triggered nuclear shutdowns in France and rolling blackouts in Italy. Such extremes underscore the fragility of Europe’s hard-won stability.
The European Commission’s latest assessment strikes a cautious tone. Russian gas imports have plummeted to 7%, and emissions are down 12% since 2022—a testament to renewables’ rise. Yet 18% of households still grapple with energy poverty, and bureaucratic delays stall 60% of renewable projects. “We’re no longer in crisis mode,” acknowledges Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson, “but complacency is not an option.”
As markets digest the latest figures—gas at €41.20/MWh, carbon permits nearing €90/ton—the question lingers: Can Europe’s grid handle the 2030 renewables surge? For now, the continent treads a narrow path, balancing wartime pragmatism with an uncertain vision of sustainability. The crisis has been contained, but the reckoning is far from over.
Reported with contributions from Javier Fernandez in Madrid and Anika Müller in Berlin.*
October 15, 2025 | Bloomberg Today