Cold War Echoes or a Foreboding Prelude to a Potential New Atomic Catastrophe?
Strong convictions often serve as a mere pretext in the puersuit of vital energy resources that fuel conflict.
Hello, lovely folks, and a splendid Sunday to each of you!
In the realm of work, there’s an unspoken agreement that we must always wear a mask of “I’m fine.” What a magnificent charade! We are, after all, delicate beings navigating the unpredictable waves of existence. Honesty is crucial for truly understanding ourselves and our circumstances. So, if you were to ask how I’m doing, I’d admit that things could be better. And there’s absolutely no shame in that.
As a proud descendant of Italian Ashkenazi Jews, I’ve always held the teachings of the Kabbalah in high regard. Yet, as the sands of time slip through my fingers, I find myself drifting away from those beliefs for reasons that could be deemed either wise or foolish. When life throws me curveballs, I often ponder why I’ve let go of those guiding lights.
This blog has offered some sharp insights, and while it may stroke my ego, it doesn’t quite soothe my spirit. Still, the weight of responsibility fuels my determination to keep moving forward.
Today, my mind meandered to the enchanting land of Argentina—a place bursting with beauty, grappling with relentless inflation, and rich in cultural lore. From Diego to Evita, Palito Ortega to Sandro the Gypsy, Gardel to Leonardo Favio, Julio Cortázar to the legendary Don José Luis Borges, and the icons of Messi, Monzón, Sabatini, Vilas, and Le Parc, along with our beloved Malbecs—Argentina is a treasure trove of splendor, even if its economy is as fragile as a soap bubble in a storm.
In this vibrant Argentina, a libertarian figure has emerged—a character seen by some as a psychedelic dream and by others as a polarizing force. He’s locked in an epic battle with the “formidable” Peronist and Kirchnerist unions, a clash that feels almost mythical. Meanwhile, across the ocean in Europe, this libertarian is taking on a Spanish social democrat, a disciple of figures like Margaret Albright, George Soros, and the U.S. Democratic Party, who is steering Spain toward a precarious destiny. It seems the libertarians are slowly but surely making their mark in the land of the Albiceleste.
Now, let’s rewind the clock over fifty years to Mendoza, Argentina, a city nestled by Chile, where three dapper Argentine gentlemen, their shoes gleaming and hair impeccably styled, are spinning fanciful tales on a street corner. A stunningly beautiful pregnant woman strolls by, her radiant glow unmistakable. The boldest of the men can’t help but exclaim, “What a beautiful belly you have!” In keeping with Argentine idiosyncrasy, one might anticipate she would dismiss the remark and proceed, but to everyone's astonishment...
To the astonishment of all, the glowing woman turns to face the audacious admirer who thought he had triumphed at that moment... and she quips, “So, you fancy my belly?” Ecstatic, the admirer replies, “Yes, yes, yes!” She retorts, “Well, jot down my husband’s number, and he can give you one just like it.”
Wishing you all the very best and, above all, good health...
The image titled "Hunger in Gaza" is copyrighted by Germán & Co and is sourced from Shutterstock.
The phrase “lost in translation” could imply a discrepancy in interpreting reality.
A pertinent example is the “temporary” ceasefire agreement established between Israel and Hezbollah…
“true freedom is not directed only toward one’s own advantage; it has inhibitions and scruples.”Angela Merkel's memoir, "Freedom," 2024.
This agreement is characterized by its provisions’ inherent fragility. The persistent violence coincides with Israel's military actions against Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah in both Gaza and Lebanon. Additionally, the civil war in Syria has led to rebels taking over Aleppo, raising the likelihood of a wider regional conflict. Shortly after the agreement was signed, both sides began exchanging accusations vis-à-vis regarding the peace accord's violations. Ironically, as thousands of peoples displaced by the conflict try to return to their former homes. A photograph released hours after agreement shows unexplained devastation, without water, food, healthcare, electricity, or hope. Not, doubt, Gaza is engulfed in despair, a harsh reality that darkens its skyline, where neon signs of peace feel like a distant dream.
Specific individuals and organizations are claiming credit for this “partial “ success…
But, the complexities inherent in communication precipitate misunderstandings, particularly within the increasingly intricate and challenging global landscape marked by misinformation. The concept of fact is indeed complex; how can one find out truth in a society that does not encourage contemplation? In contemporary times, obtaining solitude for reflection and deep thought has become increasingly complicated because individuals are perpetually distracted by numerous incessant notifications.
In a moment of profound contemplation, a gentleman sits in a sophisticated hotel bar in Tokyo, reflecting on the complexities associated with a midlife crisis. While sipping his drink, he faces the harsh reality of Alzheimer's—a cruel thief that strips men of their vitality and clarity in life's autumn—pondering over his beverage. This scene encapsulates the essence of the character portrayed in Sofia Coppola’s 2003 film “Lost in Translation,” a poignant exploration of life’s intricacies, set against the backdrop of Suntory whisky. As he traverses an unfamiliar city’s neon-lit streets, he grapples with feelings of isolation and the pursuit of meaning in an apparently elusive world. Coppola adeptly explores themes of alienation and the challenges of establishing connections in a society that seems overwhelmingly distant.
Many may question this film’s relevance to the Israel–Palestine conflict…
Indeed, forging bonds in a world that often feels strikingly disconnected. Contemporary Israeli literature highlights the critical and ethical perspectives that Israeli autobiographers adopt, which challenge—and convey a profound personal commitment to—Israel’s collective identity. In this context, the concept of “the bad reader,” proposed by Amos Oz in his work “A Tale of Love and Darkness,” emerges. The “bad reader” fixates on the author’s personal life instead of engaging with the narrative and seeks to uncover “the story behind the story.” For instance, when Dostoevsky presents a character committing robbery and murder against an older woman, the lousy reader is inclined to assume that Dostoevsky himself must have engaged in such actions.
Upon receiving the urgent news regarding the “temporary” ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, we were compelled the trigger to respond.
There are a few avenues that might pave the way to this accord, such as the following: The chatter surrounding Elon Musk's rendezvous with Iranian dignitaries right after President Donald Trump secured his second term has been quite the hot topic. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court has thrown a curveball by issuing an arrest warrant for the Prime Minister of Israel. Additionally, the notable imagery of Hezbollah launching a missile right before a significant agreement cannot be overlooked. One might even draw comparisons to the severe Russian winter during the Nazi invasion; nevertheless, in this context, the implications resonate with Netanyahu against the backdrop of an arid and adverse desert landscape, or perhaps they merely reflect the ongoing political conflicts within Israel. Noteworthily, this situation has been developing for a prolonged period. Furthermore, considering the Biden administration’s possible actions in this complex scenario is essential. The bad reader arrived at only this interpretation.
Unfortunately, the storyline takes an unexpected turn, leading us to yet another surprising twist in the plot. A considerable consensus among contemporary Israeli historians posits that the aspiration for peaceful coexistence between Jews and Palestinians was irrevocably disrupted during the Six-Day War, which occurred from June 5 to June 10, 1967. Although the prospects for a stable peace were already minimal, they became increasingly unattainable in the aftermath of the devastating and “mad” Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The wounds inflicted by these events are so profound that they remain impervious to even the relentless progression of Alzheimer's disease.
The story behind the story…
Ultimately, regardless of the reader's level of understanding or the darkness of the subject, the perplexing Hamas attack on October 7, continues to present a significant “enigma”. Hamas was well aware that any retaliation would be severe. Within this context, Benjamin Netanyahu might be granted some leniency, as the response would likely have been decisive regardless of who was at the helm of Israel at the time. This so-called "temporary" truce is destined to be yet another illusion for both countries, each bearing the weight of a tumultuous past. Their struggles have been compounded by the meddling of outsiders, a legacy that dates back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement from 1916.
Image: Artwork by Germán & Co
Strong convictions and the pursuit of vital energy resources propel the conflict.
Eurasia: A tapestry woven with the threads of oil, gas, and conflict...
The Yalta Conference, which convened from February 4 to 11, 1945, served as a pivotal precursor to the Cold War. The conference, occurring during World War II, brought together a significant assembly of important figures, those being the leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union: President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Prime Minister Winston Churchill and General Secretary Joseph Stalin, respectively. Furthermore, although behind the scenes, China played a notable role in the discussions. The conference was held in Yalta, Crimea, then part of the Soviet Union. China's influence is clear in the agreements reached, particularly in the document ‘Yalta and the Far Eastern Agreement’, by the esteemed scholar Fu Binchang, who served as the last ambassador of General Chiang Kai-shek to Soviet Russia from 1943 to 1949. Significantly, the case also involved Mr. Alger Hiss, an American official who was implicated in espionage activities for the Soviet Union but was never condemned.
The conference was defined by a singular objective: to formulate a comprehensive plan for peace in the aftermath of World War II, aiming to establish a framework for collective security and promote the self-determination of liberated European nations.
Although discussions were primarily focused on the reconstruction of countries affected by the war, the subsequent emergence of the Cold War and the resulting division of the continent rendered the conference a topic of significant debate and controversy in subsequent years: The Cold War era was characterised by heightened global tensions, meticulously orchestrated propaganda campaigns, a pervasive culture of espionage and an overarching atmosphere of fear, contributing to a disheartening and profoundly ambiguous geopolitical landscape.
In its plan for peace, The Yalta Agreement aimed to safeguard European nations from the traumatic aggression associated with German nationalism, as articulated in Nazi ideology. Ironically, Germany, once perceived as a formidable threat by many world leaders, but the "mental wall" that divides East Germany continues to exist 35 years after the GDR collapsed is now experiencing unprecedented weakness and grappling with a profound identity crisis, causing the nation to face significant socioeconomic and political challenges that are proving exceedingly difficult to resolve.
Furthermore, the conference underscored the necessity of curbing the global proliferation of communism. It is essential to recognise that communism encompasses more than merely philosophical concepts of societal models as regrettably illustrated by historical evidence.
The political ideology under examination is characterised by a pervasive atmosphere of animosity and self-interest aimed at consolidating power by manipulating the particular country’s economy and society. At its essence, the State is regarded as the ultimate authority, and the regime of Nicolae Ceaușescu, which adhered to pro-Soviet ideologies in Romania from 1965 to 1989 provides a salient example of this phenomenon. Indeed, this period serves as a poignant illustration of the ramifications of communist governance, as evidenced by the concentration of wealth in the hands of communist dictators while their general populaces endured significant deprivation and hunger.
Four significant events characterised the Cold War period—the first of these being the Cuban Missile Crisis. In October 1962, after the deployment of nuclear-armed Soviet missiles in Cuba, located only 90 miles from the U.S. mainland, leaders from the United States and the Soviet Union participated in a tense 13-day political and military standoff.
The second significant event was the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989—an event that served as a prominent symbol of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and marked the conclusion of the Cold War.
The third phase, marked by the rise of a new wave of conflict in the early 1980s and culminating with the rise of Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev in the late 1980s, is a critical juncture for understanding modern global dynamics. This period led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in late 1991, signaling the end of the Cold War. The legacy of the Cold War continues to influence geopolitical developments, highlighting the Soviet Union's determination to avoid any future military inferiority.
At long last, thirty-five years after the iconic Berlin Wall crumbled, we find ourselves reflecting on the dreams of 1989—visions of a world brimming with democracy and freedom that, sadly, have not come to fruition. Instead of the anticipated progress, the Western world has seen a decline in nearly every facet of social justice, morphing into a bipolar entity amidst a chaotic multipolar landscape fueled by competing aspirations.
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The latest communication from the Kremlin, articulated by Mr. Dmitry Peskov, the informed and educated press secretary to President Vladimir Putin—who possesses considerable ties to the elected President Donald Trump—indicates that the philosophical ideas of Dostoevsky and the nationalistic sentiments linked to the Romanov dynasty continue to influence Putin's strategic decision-making. This statement emphasizes Russia's unwavering commitment to address and rectify any potential military deficiencies to avert their reemergence.
Conversely, "The New Statesman," a British publication, depicted the current scenario as critical in its latest digital issue: The assertive declarations from Moscow are understandably causing alarm. Serious analysts harbor concerns that Russia may intensify the situation, potentially leading the world to unintentionally slide into a broad conflict, as has happened before in the age of widespread warfare. This apprehension is intensified by the conduct of numerous individuals on social media from both the far right and left. For instance, Donald Trump Jr. has claimed that the "military-industrial complex appears eager to initiate World War III before my father can broker peace and save lives."
In the article titled "As Long as It Takes: Biden Adds to Talk of a New Cold War," published on July 13, 2023, David E. Sanger explores the complexities of today's global situation. Meanwhile, there are arguments that comparing the current period to the Cold War is an oversimplification. President Biden and his national security team have repeatedly emphasized that these comparisons fail to capture the nuanced reality of the contemporary geopolitical landscape.
The disparities between the two periods are substantial, particularly in terms of technological and economic interdependence between the United States and China. Additionally, Biden's advisors maintain that Russia cannot be equated with the Soviet Union, as its conventional military strength has significantly weakened in Ukraine.
President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday that President Biden's security advisors had not foreseen Russia's initiation of an experimental hypersonic ballistic missile launch towards Ukraine. This move was a reaction to Ukraine's authorization to target Russian territory with long-range missiles provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. Putin stressed his intention to respond to any additional escalation in the conflict.
“Conflicts related to religious issues often arise from deep-seated beliefs, yet they are commonly entangled with the pursuit of vital geopolitical resources. This intricate mix of ideological commitment and strategic objectives forms the basis of many of the world's most enduring and difficult conflicts.
At the heart of the matter lies a complex tug-of-war, a fierce contest for dominance over the sprawling web of pipelines that transport natural gas throughout Eurasia. Yet, this struggle is not merely about energy; it is also steeped in religious undertones. The disintegration of the Soviet Union, which had long stifled religious expression, sparked a remarkable revival of faith across its successor states, leading to a surge in church attendance and spiritual fervor.
Fast forward to February 24, 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine thrust the intricate ties between Vladimir Putin's government and the Russian Orthodox Church into the spotlight. The Church has been a staunch ally of Putin, providing theological backing for his military endeavors and justifying his actions on both domestic and international fronts. This intertwining of politics and faith has sown discord within the broader Orthodox community, resulting in a formal rift with the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and heightened tensions with the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople. But what is the underlying significance of religion in Putin's regime?
A recent survey by the Pew Forum revealed that a staggering 71% of Russians identify as Orthodox, alongside 78% of Ukrainians, 73% of Belarusians, and 92% of Moldovans. The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), now brimming with confidence, positions itself as the custodian of Russian national identity, proclaiming Moscow as the 'third Rome' with authority over Orthodox communities in these nations and beyond. Domestically, Putin has enacted laws targeting 'non-traditional' religious groups, imposing fines, detentions, and criminal charges.
Since the election of Patriarch Kirill in 2009, the ROC has cozied up to the Kremlin, claiming jurisdiction over vast swathes of former Soviet territory. The Church's Holy Synod includes bishops from Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, all under its expansive umbrella. Central to this alliance is the doctrine of Russkiy Mir, or 'Russian world'—a concept that envisions Russia as a savior of Christian civilization, tasked with rescuing it from the perceived moral decay of the West. This ideology promotes the spread of Russian language, culture, and values, aiming to reassert influence over former Soviet states and beyond. In 2007, Putin established the Russkiy Mir Foundation, which actively propagates this vision globally, working hand in hand with the ROC.
Experts suggest that the conflict in Ukraine carries a religious dimension, with Putin's ambition to seize Kyiv framed as a 'spiritual quest.' In a lengthy article published in July 2021, titled *'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, Putin articulated his vision of a Greater Russia, asserting that Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are essentially one people, united by their shared baptismal heritage in Kyiv dating back to Prince Volodymir's conversion in 988. This narrative positions Russia's adversaries in the West as historical foes, accusing them of 'Polonising and Latinising' Russian lands and undermining Orthodoxy. Putin dismisses the emergence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church as a threat, conveniently ignoring the Ukrainian perspective. For him, the notion of Ukrainian identity or statehood lacks historical legitimacy and serves merely as a geopolitical weapon aimed at weakening Russia. He characterizes the current Ukrainian leadership as 'radicals and neo-Nazis,' making it clear that his ultimate goal is to forge a singular, expansive nation—a triune entity.
Gas conflicts between Ukraine and Russia served as a precursor to the war, with disputes over energy supplies and prices revealing deeper geopolitical tensions.
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia extends beyond the battlefield to the geopolitical realm of natural gas. Disputes over this energy source at the beginning of the century foreshadowed the current war.
For some analysts have examined Ukraine's 'gas relations' with Russia from Ukraine's viewpoint, especially since Ukraine is a crucial transit route for Russian gas to Europe. Russia continues to pay Ukraine for this transit, amounting to approximately 800 million dollars last year. This payment is significant, as there are forces within Ukraine that have long desired to eliminate the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which ultimately were destroyed in an act of terrorism.
To gain insight into the role played by gas in Ukrainian society the Institute for History looked at two major gas conflicts from 2006 and 2009. During these crises, Russia showed it was prepared to use the gas supply as a political weapon to destabilise Ukraine and exert pressure.
And of course, LNG represents a lifeline for President Putin, Liquefied LNG has emerged as a crucial economic asset for Russia amidst the geopolitical tensions following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While the European Union significantly reduced its imports of piped gas from Gazprom, Russian LNG exports to Europe experienced a notable increase of approximately 38 percent in 2023 compared to the pre-war year of 2021, with the EU importing around 22 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian LNG. Notably, Russia has become the second-largest supplier of LNG to Europe, following the United States.
It is important to highlight that Gazprom is not the primary entity involved in these LNG exports; rather, Novatek, Russia's second-largest natural gas producer, plays a pivotal role. In 2022, Novatek exported over 76 percent of the LNG produced by its Yamal LNG project to European markets. Currently, more than 50 percent of Russia's LNG exports are directed towards Europe, a significant increase from 39 percent in 2021.
Despite the substantial volume of LNG exports, these activities do not constitute a major source of budgetary revenue for Russia, as Novatek's LNG production and exports benefit from a twelve-year exemption from mineral extraction taxes and export duties. Nonetheless, the revenue generated from these exports, estimated at up to 10 billion euros annually, provides financial support for the Russian government, potentially facilitating the ongoing military operations in Ukraine. In response to this situation, the Russian government has increased the profit tax on Novatek from 20 percent to 32 percent for the period of 2023 to 2025. Furthermore, the draft budget for 2024 suggests the possibility of imposing one-time payments on oil and gas companies, including Novatek.
Currently, the European Union is not contemplating sanctions against Russian LNG, which indicates that the revenue stream is likely to persist without interruption into 2024. Additionally, Novatek has continued to advance its significant Arctic LNG-2 (ALNG-2) project, despite initial challenges in accessing essential Western technology due to sanctions. Although Western firms such as Linde, Technip, and Baker Hughes withdrew from the project following the invasion, Novatek has managed to secure previously contracted equipment or identify alternative suppliers from China. However, the imposition of comprehensive U.S. sanctions against the ALNG-2 project in November 2023 has effectively stalled its progress, thereby undermining Russia's ambitions to expand its LNG exports in the forthcoming years and demonstrating the impact of targeted sanctions on specific oil and gas initiatives.
The anticipated surge in LNG prices has not occurred, despite conflicts impacting major maritime and land routes for fossil fuel transport?
The G-7's oil-price cap is proving to be a paper tiger. Since its introduction in September 2022, the cap on Russian oil prices has been little more than a suggestion, as Russia continues to sell its oil to China through the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline at prices that soar well above the $60-per-barrel threshold. The Russian Finance Ministry has even reported that Urals crude shipped from Black and Baltic Sea ports is also exceeding this limit. As of March 2024, Russia remains unfazed, exporting crude oil at prices that laugh in the face of the cap.
When the G-7 rolled out this price cap, they underestimated the complexity of monitoring the myriad of shipping, trading, and insurance transactions that Russian oil exporters engage in, especially those that fall outside their jurisdiction. The U.S. Treasury Department had hoped that countries not participating in the cap would seek the best deals, using the cap as leverage in negotiations with Russia. However, that dream quickly evaporated. As market prices climbed, Russia pivoted to traders, shippers, and insurers operating beyond the G-7's reach, effectively sidestepping the cap with ease.
The current landscape raises serious doubts about the G-7's ability to enforce this oil-price cap. To even begin to make a dent, they would need to significantly ramp up their sanctions enforcement capabilities, adding hundreds of personnel to monitor the vast web of transactions tied to Russian crude exports. Without these crucial staffing increases and legal actions against those flouting the cap, enforcement remains a distant fantasy. The G-7 faces a daunting challenge in tackling Russia’s elusive “shadow tanker fleet” and the myriad shell companies that operate outside their regulatory grasp. Ironically, it seems that the EU's oil embargo, rather than the price cap, has been the real thorn in Russia's side when it comes to oil exports.
Today…
EU blows hot and cold over Trump
Imagine puffing out your chest and belly dancing at the same time. Artistically, it’s not really advisable…
Le Monde Diplomatique December 2024 editions by Benoît Bréville.Europe’s Azerbaijan gas gambit is good news for Russia
Europe keeps striking deals with Azerbaijan, even at COP29. And while it might not be Russian gas, Moscow is still likely to benefit…
Politico article by Gabriel Gavin, dated November 29, 2024.
In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...
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Thank you for your kind contributions…
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…
Natural Gas Terminal AES ANDRES, located in the Dominican Republic. Image provided by AES Dominicana.
The CEO asserts that we can start blending natural gas with green hydrogen today, despite its continued necessity for years.
“I am confident we will need natural gas for the next 20 years,” stated Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2023. “We can start blending it with green hydrogen today,” he added.
Image by Germán & Co, all rights reserved.
EU blows hot and cold over Trump
Le Monde Diplomatique December 2024 editions by Benoît Bréville.Imagine puffing out your chest and belly dancing at the same time. Artistically, it’s not really advisable: the stiffness of the upper body restricts the fluidity of the hips and it ends up in ungainly moves that make you look ridiculous. Diplomatically, the result is just as painful to watch.
It won’t be long before European leaders, who have greeted Donald Trump’s election with a mix of bravado and oaths of fealty, realise this. His victory has sent shockwaves through European governments, where there’s widespread fear that he might actually implement his programme: halting arms deliveries to Ukraine, removing the American security umbrella, questioning traditional alliances, introducing aggressive protectionism… Measures that would upend the international order established after the second world war – and for which the EU is unprepared.
And yet European politicians are talking tough. ‘We have demonstrated that Europe can take its destiny into its own hands when it is united,’ said European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen confidently. Emmanuel Macron proclaimed the advent of ‘a more united, stronger and more sovereign Europe’ which possesses ‘strategic autonomy’. Fine words. It’s a pity that no one really believes them any more.
That’s partly because we’ve heard this promise so often without Europe’s subservient status changing – when the Berlin Wall came down, after the US intervention in Iraq, during the 2008-09 financial crisis, at the start of Trump’s first term. Even when an ostensible friend occupies the White House, European interests are still trampled underfoot. Remember how Joe Biden brought forward the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, forcing the French and British into a chaotic evacuation. And unknown to France, he negotiated a military pact with the UK and Australia, depriving the French of a €56bn submarine contract with the Australians. He has also shown no concern for the impact of his green industrial strategy (Inflation Reduction Act) on Europe’s economy; Canada was given far more consideration.
And it’s also because the Europeans lack the means to realise their ambitions. If Washington were to end, or even scale back, its support for Ukraine, Europe couldn’t fill the gap: it’s not that easy to escape decades of dependence on the US military-industrial complex, its patents, expertise, components, logistical infrastructure, intelligence systems and production capacity. Ukraine would then have no choice but to accept the terms of a peace negotiated by the US and Russia, likely involving territorial losses. For European leaders, who have poured so much money and political capital into a Ukrainian victory and still present it as the only viable outcome, such a humiliation would be enormous.
And so they are desperately trying to dissuade Trump from carrying out his threats by giving him what he wants. One day, von der Leyen suggests buying more American gas; the next, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock proposes boosting military budgets to reach almost 3% of GDP; and then the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, Kaja Kallas, parrots US rhetoric by calling China a ‘systemic rival’.
And forget about any semblance of unity. Europeans showed they couldn’t speak with one strong voice when the International Criminal Court indicted Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic rejected the decision. Belgium, Ireland and Spain supported it. And France and Germany just looked embarrassed, simply saying they had taken note of it. Should they bow to the US’s will or uphold international justice? Now that’s a real toughie…
Image: Germán & Co vía Shutterstock
Europe’s Azerbaijan gas gambit is good news for Russia
Europe keeps striking deals with Azerbaijan, even at COP29. And while it might not be Russian gas, Moscow is still likely to benefit…
Politico article by Gabriel Gavin, dated November 29, 2024.Western countries are looking to Azerbaijan to help end their reliance on Moscow’s fossil fuels, striking a string of natural gas agreements even during this year’s COP29 climate change talks.
That’s not the only irony, though: The deals could ultimately benefit Russia.
Since Moscow launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has been looking to resource-rich Azerbaijan to help replace the Russian energy it relied on for years. And Azerbaijan has been only too happy to help. In 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed a memorandum of understanding with the South Caucasus country to expand gas exports.
Then, as host of the COP29 summit, which runs through the end of this week, the authoritarian petrostate has unabashedly promoted its natural gas resources and flaunted new commercial arrangements with several European countries. President Ilham Aliyev even hosted a signing ceremony for one such deal on the conference sidelines.
However, in order to increase its exports to Europe, Azerbaijan has dramatically upped its own fossil fuel imports from Russia. Some researchers suspect the country may be simply relabeling some imported Russian fuel and sending it along to Europe, although Azerbaijan insists the supplies are merely for domestic use. Either way, though, Moscow benefits.
“Azerbaijan is trying to position itself as a major EU energy partner,” said Aura Sabadus, a gas markets expert at intelligence firm ICIS. “But they don’t have the production and, at the moment, they’re punching above their weight.”
The arrangement is just one of the compromises Western countries are making in aligning themselves with Azerbaijan. The petrostate is also overseeing a crackdown on local dissent that human rights groups say escalated ahead of its current moment on the global stage.
"Europeans see Azerbaijan as an alternative to Russia, but buying energy from Azerbaijan means buying energy from Russia," said Zhala Bayramova, an Azerbaijani dissident who was this week handed the prestigious Magnitsky Human Rights Award for her activism.
Russian roundabout…
Just last week, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy revealed that the country had boosted natural gas sales to Europe by 8.6 percent, accounting for almost a billion cubic meters of fuel.
That’s only the beginning. Azerbaijan’s state energy firm SOCAR has plans to boost annual gas production from around 37 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 49 bcm by 2033, contravening global climate goals to reduce fossil fuel production.
As host of the COP29 summit the authoritarian petrostate has unabashedly promoted its natural gas resources and flaunted new commercial arrangements with several European countries. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images
That ambition has been evident at COP29, where Aliyev clinched gas-related deals with Slovakia, Bulgaria and Serbia, paving the way for the country to strengthen its position as a major energy producer for the continent.
But Azerbaijan’s expected production increase is still well below the levels it needs to become one of the main players in supplying Europe.
Instead, Azerbaijan has begun importing natural gas from Russia’s state energy firm Gazprom — securing at least 1 billion cubic meters in an initial contract.
Baku is also in talks to acquire Russian gas and pump it through Ukraine into Central Europe — a potential workaround to keep the fuel flowing when Kyiv’s existing transit agreement with Moscow expires at year’s end.
But the creative solution is a thin mask for the inconvenient truth: Azerbaijan would essentially be laundering Russian gas for Europe.
“People are realizing that this of course won’t be Azeri gas,” said Sabadus, the ICIS gas market specialist. “It would be Russian — you’re just changing the label.”
Additionally, Azerbaijan is hoovering up Russian crude oil, stepping up purchases compared to before the start of the Ukraine war. In 2024, the country bought close to $40 million in Russian crude oil each month, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shared with POLITICO. That’s $23 million in monthly tax revenue for the Kremlin, the organization estimates.
Isaac Levi, lead Russian energy analyst at the think tank, said those 2024 tax revenues are enough money for Moscow to finance over 1,000 newly recruited soldiers.
“There’s a real lack of identifying the true origin of these fossil fuels when they reach the EU,” he said.
Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, has lacerated the West at COP29 for being “hypocritical” — accusing countries of asking for more gas, then chiding Baku for promoting that same gas.
The boosted gas exports “was not our idea,” Aliyev said. “It was a proposal of the European Commission … because they needed our gas due to the change in the geopolitical situation. We said OK, we are always ready to help if our help is needed.”
Yet the country is certainly not turning away potential new clients. Elnur Soltanov, Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister who is also the COP29 chief executive, was caught on camera encouraging fossil fuel deals ahead of the climate summit.
"We have a lot of gas fields that are to be developed," Soltanov told investigators posing as potential investors, offering to broker introductions to the country’s fossil fuel producers.
The EU seems invested in cementing a long-term partnership, as well.
A tranche of leaked documents, seen by POLITICO, shows that the European Commission has tried to push Azerbaijan to comply with new rules on methane emissions — which can leak during oil and gas production and is 84 times more potent for global warming than carbon dioxide.
The overture comes ahead of new EU rules that will impose restrictions on exporters that could scupper the bloc’s energy relationship with Azerbaijan.
Political woes
Despite their ever-closer energy ties, Azerbaijan and the EU have an increasingly testy political relationship.
Brussels has called on the South Caucasus country to release political prisoners, whom rights watchdogs say have been jailed on spurious charges and won’t get justice in a system effectively run by Aliyev and his favored elites.
Specifically, the EU’s human rights commissioner pressed Baku to quash the case against imprisoned academic Gubad Ibadoghlu — father of the activist Zhala Bayramova — who was detained after publishing a report that alleged Azerbaijan was laundering Russian gas for sale to the EU.
"I would also advise [the] EU human rights commissioner to deal seriously with growing human rights problems in the European Union instead of preaching [to] others," Aliyev’s foreign policy chief, Hikmet Hajiyev, said in a furious rebuke at the time.
Those tensions haven’t abated at COP29.
France’s top climate official is boycotting the summit after Aliyev accused France (and the Netherlands) of "brutally" suppressing climate change concerns in its overseas territories. Paris, which backs Baku's biggest rival, neighboring Armenia, has previously accused Azerbaijan of inflaming tensions in its Pacific Ocean islands of New Caledonia.
Brussels is even under pressure to reassess its fossil fuel deals with Azerbaijan. The European Parliament — which can only exert pressure on the EU executive — passed a nonbinding resolution earlier this year calling on the EU to do just that, citing the human rights concerns, the ongoing conflict with Armenia and allegations that Baku is laundering Russian gas for Europe.
Yet the EU is not poised to change course.
The EU’s energy deal with Azerbaijan is "helping Europe to diversify away from Russian gas imports,” Tim McPhie, the Commission's energy spokesperson, said in a statement.
The partnership with Baku, he added, “includes regular dialogue on issues including human rights.”
Additionally, the EU countries are free to purchase Russian gas if they want — even if it’s laundered through Azerbaijan. The EU has not sanctioned Russian gas, even though it is encouraging all countries to gradually cut ties.
"The problem is the EU doesn’t consider Azerbaijan to be as dangerous as Russia, when it’s the same kind of state,” said Bayramova, who is campaigning for her father's release. “When there’s accusations Russian gas is being pumped to the EU, there should be an investigation — but the reality is nobody cares."