Germán & Co 1/6/25 Germán & Co 1/6/25

A new and perilous landscape lies ahead for President-elect Trump…

A treacherous terrain awaits President-elect Trump as he steps into the spotlight…

“Why are South Korean protesters brandishing U.S. flags and shouting pro-Trump slogans? It appears that supporters and critics of President Yoon Suk Yeol alike are rallying around American symbols, flaunting everything from the “Stop the Steal” mantra to the Virginia state flag…

North America boasts a wealth of gas resources, with cost efficiencies dipping below $2.8 per MMBTU, enough to satisfy over 25 years of demand.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“Why are South Korean demonstrators waving U.S. flags and chanting pro-Trump phrases? It seems that both fans and foes of President Yoon Suk Yeol are embracing American imagery, sporting everything from the “Stop the Steal” catchphrase to the Virginia state flag…

North America has enough gas resources with cost economics below $2.8 per MMBTU to meet more than 25 years of demand.?

**Help us…**

Finally, the dream of this little blog is set to come to life with the release of the much-anticipated second edition of "The Owner of Non Man Lan and Other Tales." This fresh installment will showcase a fascinating story that explores the depths of the human mind, aptly named: "Marilyn was told by a policeman that he was a good thief..."—a heartfelt homage to the revered Nicaraguan poet, Ernesto Cardenal.

Today…

A different and more dangerous world awaits President-elect Trump

The war in Ukraine presents immediate challenges for the incoming president, with other problems looming in the Middle East and China…

WSJ, Analysis by Dan Balz, January 5, 2025

**You can't possibly deny me...**

**Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…**

In December 2023, Energy Central recognized outstanding contributors within the Energy & Sustainability Network during the 'Top Voices' event. The recipients of this honor were highlighted in six articles, showcasing the acknowledgment from the community. The platform facilitates professionals in disseminating their work, engaging with peers, and collaborating with industry influencers. Congratulations are extended to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for their exemplary demonstration of expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1876205450405843162

**You can't possibly deny me...**

**Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…**

Donate

Natural Gas Terminal AES ANDRES, located in the Dominican Republic. Image provided by AES Dominicana.

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of AES, articulated this perspective during the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2023, stating, "I am confident we will need natural gas for the next 20 years." He further emphasized, "We can start blending it with green hydrogen today."

A different and more dangerous world awaits President-elect Trump

The war in Ukraine presents immediate challenges for the incoming president, with other problems looming in the Middle East and China…

WSJ, Analysis by Dan Balz, January 5, 2025

President-elect Donald Trump will begin his second term stronger and more dominant as a player on the world stage than when he was sworn in eight years ago. The world that awaits him, however, is far different — and more threatening — than when he left the presidency four years ago.

Trump’s “America First” second-term focus purports to be principally on the home front. The deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants was one of his leading campaign pledges, and his initial appointments suggest he is serious about this priority. The proposal is fraught with practical and political questions.

Dealing with the domestic economy through tax and spending cuts and regulatory changes was another key promise. Polls suggest the economy — mostly inflation — counted more than other issues did in Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. But many economists have said that Trump’s economic agenda — tariffs and an extension of tax cuts — could lead to a new round of inflation and more debt. Deportations, too, would disrupt the economy.

Trump has also pledged to bring the civil service to heel. An initiative that includes cost-cutting and finding inefficiencies will be led by multibillionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk and onetime rival Vivek Ramaswamy. The two have grand ambitions and, seemingly, the president-elect’s blessing. Nonetheless, they face multiple challenges before they will be able to deliver more than symbolic changes.

Still, Trump could quickly be drawn into foreign policy challenges. He will confront a world of chaos and conflict: a prolonged war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin more hostile than ever, and the Middle East still in turmoil after more than 15 months of warfare, with Iran weakened, Syria without Bashar al-Assad and Israel stronger militarily but scarred internationally because of its conduct in the war in Gaza.

China presents other challenges for Trump, who has threatened major new tariffs on a country with serious economic problems and growing military ambitions. As an indication of his intentions, Trump plans to populate his incoming administration with several China hawks. Meanwhile, governments of key U.S. allies in Europe, particularly France and Germany, are weakened, with right-wing, populist parties on the rise.

Trump prides himself as a dealmaker. His approach to foreign policy in his first term appeared to be more personal than strategic. He prefers dealing with autocrats rather than working with traditional alliances. In his second term, he probably will find it more difficult to work with the likes of Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and the leader who sent him what Trump called “love letters,” North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

Trump may find it harder to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin in his second term. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)

Daniel Benjamin, president of the American Academy in Berlin, said one of the biggest changes since Trump was last in office is what he called “an axis of resistance,” which includes Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. “That is now a hard and fast reality,” Benjamin said.

As one former European diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations put it, “It’s not like the old Cold War, but you can see a global pattern of jostling and tension.” In that environment, Trump’s jousting adversaries are seen as less inclined to make short-term deals that benefit the incoming president.

“Trump’s old playbook involved making believe that, on any given day, he could strike an amazing deal with any of them and be the opposing leader’s best friend. Think back to that wacky personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un,” Benjamin said. “That won’t cut it now.”

Ivo Daalder, chief executive officer of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, said, “The big thing is that Russia is at war with the West.” He said Putin is focused on subjugating Ukraine, with the longer-term goal of regaining Russia’s strategic position that was lost at the end of the Cold War.

“That means Putin is a very different character,” Daalder said. “More isolated. More focused on a singular goal than he might have been when Trump last met with him.”

The war in Ukraine could become a first test for Trump, given the status on the battlefield there, the exhaustion of depleted Ukrainian forces and declining support in the United States, particularly among Republicans, for continued assistance to Kyiv.

Trump said during the campaign that he could strike a deal to end the war in a day, the kind of hyperbole for which he is famous. Reality is different. The worry among European analysts is that Putin will have maximalist demands and that Trump, eager to get an agreement, might concede too much.

Trump’s potential moves on Ukraine are a source of considerable concern among U.S. allies in Europe, who have been part of the coalition assembled initially by President Joe Biden and who have their own security issues depending on what happens. Will Trump sell out the Ukrainians with an agreement that essentially destroys their sovereignty? Could Ukraine be forced to give up territory, but in return for guarantees that would tie them to the West?

Trump has the opportunity to help remake the Middle East, but there are at least two big questions. First, to what extent will he give Israel a free hand in ways that Biden did not? Second, what will his posture be toward Iran? Will he see an opportunity for negotiation or take a very hard-line approach? His choice for Israel ambassador, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who is strongly pro-Israel, has been interpreted as a sign that he will yield more to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu than Biden has.

Trump will come into office with some U.S. allies weakened and absorbed with internal problems. French President Emmanuel Macron has been dealt a series of political defeats in recent months. In Germany, the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz has collapsed, with new elections coming. South Korea’s government is in turmoil after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saw his deputy prime minister resign in protest and is deeply unpopular with the public.

In Germany and France, far-right parties are gaining strength, and Musk recently sparked controversy with an op-ed article calling the AfD (Alternative for Germany) that country’s “last spark for hope.” In Britain, Musk has been sharply critical of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and has flirted with the populist hard-right Reform Party. Party leader Nigel Farage, a Trump ally, has even appealed to Musk for financial support for his party.

Europeans will see Trump differently today than at the beginning of his last term. His second victory came as a surprise to many European analysts, and his agenda is now taken more seriously than ever. Trump’s hectoring of NATO is an ongoing concern, and the prospect of new tariffs is deeply worrying to America’s European allies.

Among foreign policy analysts, there is a sense that Trump comes to his second term better prepared to carry out his foreign policy priorities. And, they say, Trump begins with some clear assets to enhance his ability to shape events around the world but with perhaps less room for swagger. As Robin Niblett, a distinguished fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, noted, in a more dangerous world, “the cost of throwing his weight around could be greater.”

Germán & Co 1/3/25 Germán & Co 1/3/25

Biden plans to ban drilling in coastal waters before Trump's inauguration…

Operation ‘Just Cause’

Panama is essential to U.S. interests because of the Canal's strategic role in global commerce, with U.S. influence in the country dating back to the early 20th century. By the late 1980s, tensions escalated as Manuel Antonio Noriega, Panama's military leader, faced allegations of drug trafficking and human rights violations. His authoritarian rule and manipulation of the 1989 elections caused widespread discontent and chaos. The assassination of U.S. officer Robert Paz and attacks on American citizens led the George H.W. Bush administration to launch Operation Just Cause, aimed at protecting American lives, dismantling drug trafficking, and securing the Panama Canal while honoring treaties.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

Double the impact...

Two “President Biden is taking a bold step by prohibiting oil and gas drilling in certain federal waters of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This move, anchored in a well-established legal foundation, could pose a challenge for any future Trump administration that might seek to undo it. This decision comes on the heels of Biden's recent green light for Ukraine to deploy long-range U.S. missiles against Russian positions…

**Happy Sabbath…**

At first, we welcomed the year's inaugural Shabbat with open hearts, eager to share joy and positivity. Yet, the unsettling happenings in New Orleans and Las Vegas, coupled with whispers of a new SARC variant, cast a shadow over our spirits. To add to our woes, we’ve been battling a relentless cold, complete with feverish discomfort…

Back in 2016, we unveiled our last literary gem, "The Owner of Non Man Lan and Other Tales." Among its tales lies a vivid recounting of the Panama invasion, an event we witnessed firsthand, ensuring every detail is steeped in truth and accuracy.

Life, with its bittersweet blend of sorrow and joy, reminds us that both are essential to our journey. We strive to weave humor into our storytelling, lightening the weight of our narratives.

In the midst of these turbulent times, we feel a pull to delve into the roots of the unrest surrounding us. In a delightful twist, Pablo Neruda’s "Delirium Stadium of Fever," In his memoirs “I confess that I have lived”, set against the mesmerizing backdrop of Ceylon, tells of a young girl who visits the poet, hoping to ease his suffering. This tale serves as a heartfelt call to uplift the marginalized. Meanwhile, the other Pablo Neruda, a connoisseur of exquisite Bordeaux, particularly Gran Crux, has likely let his collection gather dust over the years.

This contemplation has sparked an idea for a story featuring Elvis Presley performing in Red Square, (Fran Séres Conte russos) intertwined with the life of a 61-year-old Russian KGB agent living in the U.S. under the alias Joseph B. Newman. One fateful day, he watches the Berlin Wall crumble on television. His true name is Dmitri, a man who has spent nearly three decades in hiding, leaving behind a family he longs for. Forgotten by his superiors, he waits in vain for orders, trapped in a life built on a crumbling ideology in a country that has turned its back on him.

It is important to note that, despite the historical subjugation of the Russian populace since the era of the Romanovs, who notably appropriated their Fabergé collections, there seems to be a deficiency in literary representation comparable to that found in Dostoevsky's "Crime and Punishment." This observation prompts inquiries regarding the nature of the world we inhabit.

Last night, I found myself enchanted by the whimsical thoughts of the theatrical and psychedelic Peruvian journalist, Jaime Baily. He explored the fascinating prospect of a Venezuelan diplomat potentially taking over his position on January 10th. It seems that the once-elusive chimera—the hope, the dream, the vision of justice and democracy—is finally starting to take shape... Inchala… Amén…

At long last, the aspiration of this humble blog is to unveil the second edition of along with a collection of captivat "The Owner of Non Man Lan and Other Tales." This new edition will feature the intriguing narrative that delves into the struggles of the psyche, titled: Marilyn was told by a policeman that he was a good thief.... "—a tribute to the esteemed Nicaraguan poet, Ernesto Cardenal.

To bring this vision to life, we’re gearing up for a fundraising campaign, inviting you to join us on this exciting journey. The edition will be in English, and we’ve already reached out to a British publisher to help us make this dream a reality!

Thank to all…

Today…

Operation ‘Just Cause’

Panama is vital to the U.S. due to the Canal's significance in global trade and U.S. influence since the early 1900s. By the late 1980s, tensions escalated under military leader Manuel Noriega, accused of drug trafficking and human rights violations. His oppressive regime and electoral fraud incited unrest. The killing of U.S. officer Robert Paz and assaults on Americans led President George H.W. Bush to initiate Operation Just Cause to protect lives and secure the Canal while honoring treaties.

By Germán Toro Ghio

Carter’s Panama Canal Treaties Symbolize How Much Washington Has Changed

To return the canal to Panama, President Jimmy Carter worked to change minds and build a bipartisan coalition that put aside short-term political considerations…

*Peter Baker published in The New York Times, dated January 2, 2025, and originating from Washington, D.C.

Before Trump Takes Office, Biden to Ban Drilling in Some Coastal Waters…

Move would be difficult for incoming administration to undo…

According to an article by Scott Patterson published in the Wall Street Journal on January 3, 2025.

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires…

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1875999065386688561

Operation ‘Just Cause’

By Germán Toro Ghio

Forewords…

This evening, we wish to in some exquisite jazz...

We had just arrived at our room on the top floor of a hotel in the centre of Panama City. It was a few minutes to midnight on Tuesday 19th December, 1989. Earlier, Isaac Abrahamsson, my wife’s cousins had invited us to Las Bóvedas, a jazz club in the old town, for around 8:15 PM.

We were picked up at the hotel. Slowly, we began to move to that side of the city. As we approached the perimeter of the old colonial district, we were stopped at a military checkpoint. After greeting the officer on duty, our host politely asked him:

‘What seems to be the issue, Lieutenant?

The uniformed man responded with a rigidity common to such ranks of the military:

‘The president is attending an official ceremony, sir’.

While the answer suggested nothing out of the ordinary, it meant we were unable to reach the jazz club and had to return to the modern part of the city, where we looked for a restaurant to have dinner. When we found one, I noticed that it was oddly crowded for a Tuesday.

As we made our way to the table the waiter had pointed to, Isaac Abrahamson, my wife’s cousin, greeted several people.

‘How are things?’, Isaac asked one of them.

‘Well, very well’, they replied.

As we sat down, Isaac told us about the people he had greeted.

‘Some of them are —paisanos—. Others are ministers…

Four ministers of General Manuel Antonio Noriega’s regime were at the restaurant, which meant that everything was calm. As the clock inched closer to midnight, we decided it was time to head back to the hotel.

We had been in Panama for about two weeks, and that night I felt tired. I lay in bed while my wife went through her bedtime routines. I was beginning to fall asleep when I experienced a loud explosion that resembled the sound of a bomb detonation. Morments later the phone rang. I answered immediately and recognised Isaac’s voice on the other end of the line.

‘They're invading’, he said in a desperate tone. Before he hung up, I heard another explosion. Then, there was the roar of another and another before the explosions continued unabated. It was real—Panama City was being bombed.

This is how Operation ‘Just Cause’ began, through which the Americans intended to remove General Noriega from power and imprison him. My wife and I huddled in fear on the highest floor of our hotel, the world outside a cacophony of chaos. The thunderous blasts of bombs echoed through the air, while helicopters sliced through the night with their ominous whirring. The sharp crack of machine guns punctuated the tension, and amidst it all, I could hear the eerie whistle of rockets soaring ominously in every direction.

The phone rang again, this time from the receptionist, who informed us that we were to be moved to a lower floor as a security measure. Almost as soon as I hung up, hotel staff arrived to gather our belongings and move us to another room.

In our new room, we heard helicopters fly past increasingly often, and we perceived the bombs and gunshots to be getting closer. Then, the power cut out, which made us panic out of fear. To protect ourselves, we took refuge in the bathroom, which seemed like the safest place. We lay on the ground in the dark, listening to exchanges of fire and the shudder of bombs. While at times there were moments of total silence, they were always broken again suddenly by the sound of weapons. Trapped by our uncertainty, every second seemed to be drawn out.

‘That shot was very close. I’m scared!’, my wife whispered after a thunderous bang.

I tried to calm her down, but the frequent explosions rendered my attempts futile. We were totally alone.

As the hours went by, the situation outside did not improve. We awoke to explosions, which had not diminished. The shooting did not let up during the day either, so we had a long and uncertain wait. A few metres from the hotel was the Telecommunications Palace. Attempting to alleviate my boredom at fairly high risk, I looked out the window to see the place being mercilessly assaulted by armed forces from the air and land. Now, the explosions were less than 400 metres away. We felt the exchange of gunfire on top of us and could hear loud voices and music from loudspeakers mounted on helicopters.

The next night came and, with it, the shelling and machine gun fire intensified. As we lay on the bathroom floor, I realised we’d been taking shelter in the hotel for a full 24 hours.

The second night was a nightmare that felt like it would never end. Unable to bear our situation any longer, I came up with a plan and told my wife about it:

‘We have only one possibility—get help from the Swedish Consulate’, I said, which reassured her.

The dawn of Thursday 21st December arrived with rays of light filtering through the small bathroom window. We had brought the hotel room’s phone closer to us so that we could use it from the bathroom. At about 5 AM, I managed to get through to the Swedish Consul. I had called him at home several times earlier in the morning, but he hadn’t answered. By the timbre of his voice, he was an old man.

He was also not a career diplomat; rather, he was one of those so-called honorary consuls who serve little purpose. In that moment, he was useless. Our conversation, which lasted for several minutes, led nowhere. Instead, it turned into a brawl with an incompetent official.

I lost patience and told him to go and fry monkeys in the African jungle. While I got my point across, our only chance of help had vanished.

‘You are too fucking old, man!’, I ended up yelling at him. Mierda…

Normally, my wife and I spent this important time of the year in Panama. As such, we knew the political situation of the country in depth, like the Panamanians. Over time, we’d heard details of the tactics proposed in various statements by the Battalions of Dignity, who had been aware of an imminent invasion by the United States.

Anyone who was aware of this background knew at the storm was far from over. . With each passing day, fears loomed heavy, one of which was the possibility that the Battalions of Dignity, an armed popular movement, might just rise to meet the mounting expectations placed upon them.

As a civil movement related to General Noriega, the Battalions of Dignity had received military training from the Panama Defence Forces. Much was said about them, including how radical their actions could be. It had been mentioned that in the event of an invasion by foreign forces, they would kidnap foreigners with impunity, especially U.S. citizens, whom they knew were mainly to be found in hotels. They would then seek to use them as human shields.

Sheltering on the floor of our small bathroom, unable to sleep, we felt totally helpless. We couldn't come up with any ideas—no one could do anything for us. Then, we felt the bombardment of Operation Just Cause intensifying. Pushed by uncertainty, we finally agreed on a strategy in case the Battalions of Dignity or the U.S. Army entered the hotel.

Mid-morning on Friday 22nd, we heard a violent knock on the room door. It seemed like the person outside wanted to beat the door down.

‘Open up! Open!’, the person shouted while knocking aggressively.

‘Who is it?’, I asked.

However, the voice on the other end persisted:

‘Open up or we're going to shoot!’

The order had become a threat. I made an inference based on the man’s tone of voice.

‘They are from the Battalions of Dignity’, I whispered in my wife’s ear. ‘Quick, get your passport’.

I opened the door to see five guerrilla fighters of the battalion. Looking excited and nervous, they spoke in a hurried, desperate manner.

‘Where are you from?’, one of them asked.

My wife quickly handed him her Nicaraguan passport.

‘We are from Nicaragua’, she replied.

The bravest fighter checked the passport closely, which did not take him long.

‘And who is he?’, he asked as he fixed his gaze on me.

‘He’s my husband’, my wife said.

He looked at me carefully.

‘It is okay’, he said cautiously.

Then, he offered a warning:

he added, "Watch out, the gringos are on their way." ‘

The militiaman’s advice, though warning us of danger, came as a relief as his fury had abated. Although my wife and I remained on tenterhooks, we realised that we had made it through an extremely dangerous moment.

When they left, we returned to sheltering on the bathroom floor. That afternoon, the phone rang. It was my friend Harald Falt, the Swedish Ambassador to Nicaragua, who had managed to locate us after many phone calls.

‘How are you?’, he asked.

I began to feel relieved. I told him about our situation and perilous experiences. Harald informed me that he had notified the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Stockholm about our situation. He had also put our names on an emergency list.

‘From Europe, a NATO plane is being coordinated to evacuate European citizens in Panama’, he said.

I thanked him warmly for calming our spirits. Now this was a diplomat who could do the job he was appointed to do.

Until Saturday 23rd, the hotel had managed to serve guests a minimum supply of food and drinks. However, from the third day onwards, we began to feel the ravages in the quantity of provisions and shortage of staff. Subtly, the hotel management suggested that we leave the hotel.

Given the superiority of the U.S. forces, the invasion had not been met with much resistance. Besides, on the fourth day, fierce clashes still raged between the military factions closest to General Noriega and the invading forces. The most intense fighting was in Chorrillos, a popular neighbourhood of Panama City.

Operation Just Cause had the sole mission of capturing General Noriega; but, by the fourth day, he could still not be found.

Significant fractions of the Panamanian police and army had withdrawn, leaving the country without authorities to ensure public order. This triggered a state of anarchy that manifested in a wave of looting and vandalism, which, in turn, became new focal points of armed confrontations between the owners of commercial establishments, defending their property, and the looters.

Sunday 24th, Christmas Eve, was the fourth day of the operation. With all the restrictions and the hotel management’s ‘friendly’ invitation to leave, my wife and I couldn't be unhappier. Our misfortune felt like the most intense darkness that one feels when a new day is approaching. Raquel Abrahamson, Isaac’s wife, called us on the phone, which I passed to my wife. In an act of solidarity, Raquel had a plan to rescue us.

"I'll swing by in 15 minutes," she announced. "Make sure you're all set. Alright, we'll be waiting for you in the hotel lobby!"

Like a Mossad agent, Raquel carried out the rescue operation impeccably.

‘Damn my car has been stolen. They took my new blue Mercedes!’, she said in the car while driving. However, none of us paid any attention to what she was saying due to the war-like scenes around us.

Isaac, a man with what seemed like a thousand and one passports, was waiting for us at the house. He was born in Switzerland, raised in Brazil, studied in the United States, and earned a master’s degree in the United Kingdom. He had married my wife’s first cousin, who was Jewish, and they had put down roots in Panama. He had then obtained Panamanian citizenship.

Isaac became a well-known art dealer and owned an impressive gallery in the city. His life was spent between the art auctions of New York and Panama City. This good man—an always positive, extraordinarily methodical, well-educated, peaceful pipe smoker and music lover— frequently found a way to escape his thoughts.

While being methodical is a virtue, such a trait can sometimes drive people to madness. Isaac documented every chronological detail of every event he experienced—the year, month, day, and hour, even down to minutes and seconds.

He also scored without haste. How much had a particular item cost him? He knew the figure immediately. Who had he bought it from? He had it written down. Who had he sold it to? He had the answer. What had his wife done that day? He could tell you. In this last area, he was patient and diligent. Perhaps, Isaac could have been a better narrator than Alonso de Ercilla y Zúñiga himself in La Araucana because of his passion for recording details.

I had known Isaac for several years. Over time, we had established a solid friendship, united by our shared enthusiasm for paintings. On several occasions, we had also done good business together.

Raquel and Isaac lived in La Cresta, one of Panama City’s most exclusive areas. They had a huge apartment. To prevent any unwanted visits, Isaac had protected the doors with armour. In this sense, the house was a fortress.

Inside, one was confused as to whether it was a house or a museum. It honestly felt more like a museum. Once we arrived, our main concern changed from dodging stray bullets to not breaking some priceless work of art, which paying for could leave us broke for life. We wandered around the apartment with extreme care and attention, but despite the need to move cautiously, we felt much calmer than at the hotel.

However, Raquel and Isaac told us that they were worried as most of the artworks they owned remained at the gallery. At any moment, they could be looted. Together, we began to plan a second rescue operation to retrieve the paintings.

The most difficult matter was locating a locked truck. We required a daring driver to undertake the adventure for a good few balboas. The rest of the challenge lay in defying adversity. As Raquel had unconditionally brought us from our hotel to their apartment, we didn’t hesitate for a moment about joining the mission. However, to reach the gallery, we had to cross a long stretch of the city, which involved the risk of us being injured or robbed.

On Monday 26th of December, the sixth day of Operation Just Cause, we got the truck along with a driver with the help of some neighbours. We started the trip to the gallery that morning. During the journey, we heard constant gunshots. No one let their guard down until we reached the destination.

The entire mission took us approximately 45 minutes. The gallery was built mostly of glass, which made sense as the works could be seen from the outside. However, at that moment, this style of architecture did not feel beneficial, and every time we took one of the artworks down from the walls, we heard the gunfire getting increasingly close.

Once the paintings had been loaded into the truck, the gunfire increased in intensity, causing a dramatic increase in our anxiety. Raquel’s DNA appeared to have betrayed her, as her innate attachment to material belongings had put the lives of our team at risk. I asked myself the following question:

‘What chucha does this cousin do in the gallery?’

I went back inside to find Raquel eagerly removing the nails the pictures had been hung on the walls with. ‘It can't be, it can't be’, I thought. ‘She wants to take absolutely everything!’ Seeing this caused me to run out of patience.

‘Stop that, please. Do you want them to kill us because of you?’, I shouted. Then, pulling her by the arm, we ran out of the building together. Between the scene’s absurdity and complexity, Isaac looked happy about the harsh scolding he gave his wife in exquisite Chilean.

On the way home, we had to find shortcuts to move forward as mobs of looters had mobilised throughout the streets. On more than one occasion, shots rang out that made us stop for safety.

Back at the apartment, Isaac overflowed with joy and gratitude. He was thrilled to have his things safe, and he offered us all manner of attention.

As the days passed, our sense of nostalgia for our own home grew. Every morning, Harald called to give me the lowdown regarding our evacuation from Panama. In the last call, he added three new elements to the unfortunate situation: First, General Noriega had not been captured; second, Panamanian airspace remained closed; and third, the airport had been seriously damaged and was only being used for military purposes by the U.S. Army. The news, although not encouraging, was at least revealing.

We lived Isaac’s methodical practices each day. Just a few weeks previously, he had become a father to a child named Moshe. Isaac had made a film of the birth, which he proudly—and repeatedly—showed us. With passion, he narrated each stage of childbirth. He bit his pipe while laughing happily, admiring the arrival of his son. In his peculiar Spanish, he recounted the following:

"With a weight of 5 kilos and 535 grams, and a length of 54 centimeters, Moshe beamed with pride and declared, 'Ah, that's the beauty of nature!'"

There was also no shortage of the best Brazilian music. Isaac always offered everything.

‘Whatever you want, I’ll record it for you’, he promised.

I had never seen such a collection of records, and so carefully classified.

On the morning of December 27th, a family friend called to say that he thought he had seen Raquel’s blue Mercedes at a barricade on the way to the airport—although he couldn’t be certain. Why say that? In less time than we took to react, Raquel had already plotted the third mission with the goal of bringing her car home.

Isaac made his way to the library and began to look through photo albums for a photo of the car. It took him a while but he found one, and we immediately set off, encountering more than a few confrontations along the way. On several occasions, we considered aborting the mission, but Raquel’s insistence made us continue. She wanted her car back no matter the risk level.

We found the blue Mercedes barricaded outside a supermarket. At least 40 people were behind the car, and the supermarket was being looted. Raquel got out the car and went towards the improvised troops, who acted quickly.

‘This car is mine!’, she shouted insistently at them.

Isaac was behind showing the photo that identified the Mercedes as her property. One of the members of the group, as if he were an authority, looked at Raquel.

‘The vehicle has been confiscated and declared useful for the war’, he said.

Raquel was not daunted.

‘War or anything—the car is mine!’, she retorted confrontationally.

Some in the crowd began to badmouth her.

‘Sold gringa!’, shouted one. ‘Get out of here!’

However, Raquel made such a fuss that they eventually gave in out of fatigue.

The Mercedes contained a prize as the looters had been using it to transport stolen goods. Raquel opened the car boot to find an entire supermarket of goods, causing her face to beam with delight. She immediately claimed the provisions as her own. However, the day’s events had exhausted our group and another fight broke out over Raquel’s nature, requiring mediation to calm everyone down.

On Thursday 28th December, night had fallen when the phone rang.

‘It’s Harald, the ambassador’, Isaac said.

When I heard my friend’s voice, I was filled with emotion.

‘Fernando’, he told me, ‘NATO has obtained permission from the United States for a plane to land tomorrow in Panama. The plane will leave Panama City at 1 o'clock in the afternoon bound for San Jose, Costa Rica’.

‘What good news! What joy!’, I exclaimed.

I informed Isaac, who offered to take us to the airport. That night, we prepared the little we had with us. On Friday 29th, very early in the morning, we were ready to leave this desvated country. Before we left, Isaac carefully placed each of his passports in different pants pockets, except for his American passport, which he put in his left shirt pocket.

General Noriega had taken refuge in a Catholic nunnery. Moreover, the invading forces employed a variety of strategies to instil fear in the increasingly isolated Panamanian military, including psychological warfare tactics. These tactics encompassed the incessant playing of loud music throughout the day and night, as well as the continuous overflight of helicopters above the Vatican's diplomatic headquarters.

The journey to the airport, which would normally take around 30 minutes, took more than 2.5 hours. Every time we encountered a U.S. Army barricade, Isaac got out of the car and walked purposefully, with a unique courage, toward the military personnel. He took his U.S. passport in his right hand and raised it high, while his pipe did not leave his left hand.

‘I’m an American’, he repeated, ‘and I've come to drop off my cousins who are going to leave on a NATO plane’.

The commandos approached the car, examined it, asked for my passport, studied it carefully, and let us continue. It was a scene repeated at least five times. On that journey, we experienced almost as much anguish and uncertainty as we had in the eight days we had been trapped in the country.

The penultimate surprise came when we arrived at the airport, which was in ruins. There was no one to turn to and nowhere to go.

‘And what shall we do now?’, my wife asked. ‘Wait’, I answered. ‘We can only wait’.

Isaac waited with us. As hours passed, Europeans who were going to leave on the same emergency flight arrived. When there were many passengers, an officer appeared with a list and reviewed each person on it. We bid Isaac farewell with emotion and great affection, thanking him for all the attention.

The plane landed a few minutes before 1 PM. The final surprise was that the plane was an impressive Hercules C-130, commonly used for transporting troops. At first, we didn’t even know how to sit down; however, all 55 evacuees were eventually accommodated onboard. It was approaching 2 PM when the plane took off. As these giant aircraft are so heavy, they fly slowly, so the flight was twice as long as a commercial flight. After more than 2 hours of flying, we reached Costa Rica, where the German ambassador was waiting to welcome us.

We were in the first round of evacuees to leave Panama following the invasion. General Noriega was in the second, but he of course left the country for a different destination—namely Miami, Florida, on 3rd January 1990. Two Black Hawk helicopters were used for what would be a one-way trip to his imprisonment.

Carter’s Panama Canal Treaties Symbolize How Much Washington Has Changed

To return the canal to Panama, President Jimmy Carter worked to change minds and build a bipartisan coalition that put aside short-term political considerations….

*Peter Baker published in The New York Times, dated January 2, 2025, and originating from Washington, D.C.

*Peter Baker is the chief White House correspondent for The Times. He has covered the last five presidents and sometimes writes analytical pieces that place presidents and their administrations in a larger context and historical framework.

When President Jimmy Carter traveled to Panama in June 1978 to finalize hotly disputed treaties turning over the Panama Canal, he declared that “we stand on the threshold of a new era.”

More than 46 years later, that era may be over, if President-elect Donald J. Trump has his way.

Mr. Carter always considered the twin treaties to be signature achievements that would figure prominently in his obituary. Indeed, for all the fireworks they generated at the time, the canal treaties have been broadly accepted ever since as a settled matter and the bedrock of the U.S. relationship with Latin America.

Yet paradoxically, just days before Mr. Carter’s death at age 100 on Sunday, Mr. Trump seemingly out of the blue propelled the nearly half-century-old issue back onto the national agenda, complaining about shipping fees and Chinese influence. If Panama does not make changes, he said, “we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America, in full, quickly and without question.”

Mr. Trump did not say how he would force such an outcome, and some analysts were skeptical that it amounted to more than a blustery bargaining position. But the timing of his threat focused new attention on an old issue, recalling an episode in Mr. Carter’s presidency that many Americans today may not remember or know much about.

“Through a bizarre accident of timing, we now have one president fantasizing about taking back the canal at just the time the world recognizes the canal transfer as an important part of a late president’s legacy,” said James Fallows, who was Mr. Carter’s speechwriter at the time and accompanied the president on that 1978 trip to Panama.

The story of Mr. Carter’s successful efforts to turn the canal over to Panama was one of the defining moments of his tenure and amounts to a case study in how much Washington has changed since then. Despite ferocious opposition on the political right led by a former California governor named Ronald Reagan, Mr. Carter managed what seems impossible to imagine today — a relentless drive that actually changed minds and built bipartisan support to do something with little political payoff and plenty of political risk.

By most accounts, the turnover of the canal improved U.S. relations in Latin America and stabilized the situation for U.S. shipping to avoid what many feared would be upheaval and even violence. The turnover was seen by opponents as a blow to American pride and national interests since, after all, the United States had built the canal. But even Mr. Reagan came to accept the treaties and never tried to upend them once he became president.

The issue was inherited by Mr. Carter, who by his own acknowledgment knew little about it when he first ran for president in 1976. The original Panama Canal treaty was signed in 1903. In one of the great engineering feats of modern history, the United States built the canal between 1904 and 1914, and operated it thereafter.

But over time, it became an issue of national pride for Panama, and mass riots in 1964 killed four American soldiers and 20 Panamanians. Panama’s government cut off diplomatic relations with the United States until President Lyndon B. Johnson agreed to negotiate a new treaty ceding sovereignty.

That effort broke down in 1968 when Brig. Gen. Omar Torrijos Herrera seized power in Panama in a military coup. President Richard M. Nixon eventually reopened negotiations in 1970 and President Gerald R. Ford continued them when he took over.

But Mr. Reagan, challenging Mr. Ford for the Republican nomination in 1976, made control of the canal a powerful attack line. “We bought it, we paid for it, we built it and we intend to keep it,” Mr. Reagan memorably declared.

Mr. Ford won the nomination but lost the general election to Mr. Carter. During the transition, Mr. Ford told his successor that the canal was a more pressing issue than Middle East peace or arms talks with the Soviet Union. To educate himself, Mr. Carter read “The Path Between the Seas,” David McCullough’s award-winning account of the building of the canal.

Mr. Reagan, left, made control of the canal a powerful attack line when he challenged President Gerald R. Ford, right, for the Republican presidential nomination in 1976. Mr. Ford won the primary, but lost the general election to Mr. Carter.Credit...Dirck Halstead/Getty Images

The new president came to see it as an issue of justice. “It’s obvious that we cheated the Panamanians out of their canal,” he wrote in his diary. In his memoir, he called tension over the canal a “diplomatic cancer.”

But it was also a matter of security. Military officials told Mr. Carter at the time that it would require up to 100,000 American troops to defend the canal against an uprising.

To overcome concerns about losing control, Mr. Carter negotiated two treaties with Panama. In addition to the main agreement outlining joint operation of the canal until its turnover by 2000, the second treaty stipulated that the canal would be neutral, with U.S. shipping guaranteed access, and that the United States would be permitted to use armed force to keep it open.

Mr. Carter invited leaders from across Latin America to a celebratory signing ceremony on Sept. 7, 1977, meant to highlight American respect for its neighbors. General Torrijos was so overcome by emotion that he broke down and sobbed in a private room with Mr. Carter before the ceremony.

But ratification in the Senate “seemed impossible,” as Mr. Carter recalled in his memoir, “Keeping Faith.” A Gallup poll showed that only 39 percent of Americans supported the treaties while 46 percent opposed them.

Mr. Carter was undaunted. A stubborn man who saw political expediency as a cardinal sin, he made ratification his top priority, working night and day to convince the public and the Senate. He teamed up with Senator Howard H. Baker Jr. of Tennessee, the Republican leader, while lobbying conservatives like Senator Barry M. Goldwater of Arizona and enlisting the aid of prominent Republicans like Mr. Ford and former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger.

He got help from influential conservative voices like William F. Buckley Jr., the founder of National Review, and even the iconic cowboy actor John Wayne, a strong Reagan ally. Mr. Wayne, whose first wife was Panamanian, even wrote a letter to his friend Mr. Reagan chastising him for “misinforming people.”

Mr. Carter was so personally invested that he kept a notebook on his desk with a section for each senator to record the latest information on their position. “It’s hard to concentrate on anything except Panama,” he told his diary.

His efforts shifted public sentiments, with polls now showing more support than opposition. But just two days before the first vote, he nearly despaired. “This has been one of the worst days, knowing that we were lost, then gaining a little hope,” he recorded in the diary.

On March 16, 1978, after 22 days of debate, the Senate voted on the second treaty first, on the assumption that it would be easier to support the agreement guaranteeing American rights to defend the canal. Mr. Carter listened in his private office, checking each senator’s vote on a tally sheet. “I had never been more tense in my life,” he wrote in his memoir. The treaty was approved 68 to 32, winning one vote more than necessary.

Mr. Carter and Brig. Gen. Omar Torrijos Herrera, the leader of Panama, after signing the ratified treaties in June 1978. “I had never been more tense in my life,” Mr. Carter wrote of the ratification vote in the U.S. Senate.Credit...Bettmann, via Getty Images

It was a major victory, but Mr. Carter still needed to push through the other, more disputed treaty. A key vote belonged to Senator S.I. Hayakawa, Republican of California.

A colorful character, Mr. Hayakawa gave Mr. Carter a copy of a book on semantics that he had written. Mr. Carter, ever the dutiful student, read it that night, then called the senator the next day and demonstrated enough knowledge to prove that he really had.

That still was not enough, so finally, playing to senatorial vanity, Mr. Baker arranged to call Mr. Carter with Mr. Hayakawa listening to ask if the president needed to meet occasionally with the California senator to get his advice on foreign affairs. “I gulped, thought for a few seconds, and replied, ‘Yes, I really do!’ hoping God would forgive me,” Mr. Carter later wrote.

Jonathan Alter, author of “His Very Best,” a 2020 biography of Mr. Carter, wrote that Mr. Hayakawa wanted Mr. Carter to commit to meeting every two weeks. “Sam, I couldn’t possibly limit our visits to every two weeks,” Mr. Carter replied cleverly. “I might want to hear your advice more often!” Mr. Hayakawa signed onto the treaty and, as Mr. Alter wrote, “that was the last time S.I. Hayakawa ever spoke to Jimmy Carter.”

The Senate approved the other treaty by the same 68 to 32 vote on April 18, 1978. Mr. Fallows, who just returned from a trip to the Panama Canal last month, called it “one of Jimmy Carter’s most important, if least remembered, diplomatic and legislative achievements.”

It came at a cost. Seven senators who voted for the treaties lost re-election just months later. But Mr. Reagan came to believe the treaties were worth keeping and thus ensured their survival, at least until now.

“Once he became president, he never revisited the issue and actually benefited policy-wise from Carter’s political courage in returning the canal to Panama,” said William Inboden, author of “The Peacemaker,” about Mr. Reagan’s foreign policy. “I think it is one of Carter’s most consequential Latin America foreign policy legacies.”

Still, Mr. Inboden, director of the Hamilton Center at the University of Florida, said that “while Trump’s musing about the U.S. retaking the canal is crass and unrealistic, it still highlights a serious concern about China’s growing influence in the region.”

But Mr. Alter said that Mr. Carter’s move had secured American interests. “That basic calculus has not changed,” he said on Thursday. “After all these years of Panama successfully running the canal, there’s no question that Trump breaking the treaties would lead to extensive violence, even war, there and a critical artery of global commerce would be at least temporarily shut.”

Before Trump Takes Office, Biden to Ban Drilling in Some Coastal Waters…

Move would be difficult for incoming administration to undo…

According to an article by Scott Patterson published in the Wall Street Journal on January 3, 2025.

WASHINGTON—President Biden is planning to ban oil and gas drilling in certain federal waters in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using a decades-old law that could make it difficult for the incoming Trump administration to reverse.

Here’s what to know about the expected ban:

The Details:

The decree, which could come as soon as next week, is expected to invoke the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, which gives the president wide latitude to withdraw from consideration currently unleased lands in federal offshore waters, according to people familiar with the White House plans. The law has been invoked a handful of times and doesn’t include a procedure for a new president to undo actions by a predecessor.

The law was tested during President-elect Donald Trump’s first administration, which attempted to reopen swaths of the Arctic Ocean that the Obama administration put off limits weeks before Trump first took office in 2017. A federal judge in 2019 ruled that Trump would need congressional authority to reopen drilling in the Arctic areas that Obama had banned.

“This is a disgraceful decision designed to exact political revenge on the American people who gave President Trump a mandate to increase drilling and lower gas prices,” Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. A White House official declined to comment.

Bloomberg earlier reported that Biden was preparing to issue the decree.

The Context:

Trump said on the campaign trail that he would unleash oil drilling in the U.S., part of his promise to rapidly cut American’s energy costs by 50% or more. He has argued that faster permitting, weakened environmental regulations and other measures will unleash production of oil and natural gas and push down prices at the pump.

U.S. oil production reached record levels under Biden, and it is unclear whether American oil giants favor massive increases in domestic drilling, which could further push down prices.

One of Biden’s chief policy efforts has been the advancement of clean-energy technologies that would help reduce the risk of climate change. Those technologies, which include electric vehicles and solar and wind energy, are meant to displace consumption of oil and gas, which produce greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

The fossil-fuel industry favors the less-restrictive policies of Trump, who has bashed Biden’s clean-energy agenda.

The Big Picture:

The last-minute move by Biden is part of a sweeping effort to shore up his environmental legacy in the final months of his administration, which is also distributing billions of dollars to safeguard favored projects before Trump takes office.

The administration has aimed to protect clean-energy projects at ports around the U.S. The Environmental Protection Agency in October awarded billions of dollars to dozens of ports to invest in new solar arrays, decarbonized trucks and other green equipment.

One of the Biden administration’s most aggressive moves is coming from a $400 billion clean-energy lending program inside the Energy Department. In December, the office said it would provide a record $15 billion low-interest loan commitment to California utility company PG&E to support hundreds of projects aimed at fighting the effects of climate change and improving the electrical grid.

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires…

1506 ET – Oil futures rise for a fifth straight session to close the week near a three-month high, helped by optimism about improved prospects for Chinese growth. “At the start of the year, geopolitical uncertainty and Chinese economic resurgence are aligning positively, contributing to the upward move in oil prices,” Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri says in a note. “Although the average market outlook for 2025 suggests crude oil prices will hover around the mid-$70s per barrel, geopolitical risks will remain a recurring factor capable of driving oil prices toward new equilibrium levels.” Greater optimism around industrial activity in China “may challenge the fundamental assumptions underpinning market forecasts,” he adds. WTI settles up 1.1% at $73.96 a barrel, and Brent advances 0.8% to $76.51 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1429 ET – Rising energy demand is expected to drive up investments in clean energy this year despite the uncertainties around the new Trump administration’s policies for the industry, says Michael Bonsignore, a partner at the corporate-and-finance practice of law firm Hogan Lovells. “The way we really see Trump 2.0, the pie is growing and the scale of investments is growing,” he says. As examples of nascent clean-energy markets prone to attract investments, he cites small modular reactors, green ammonia and hydrogen, as well as pipelines to transport the fuels. Bonsignore says there are a lot of ammonia projects in Louisiana and Eastern Texas. “In a new Trump administration, you could see that area growing and then a focus more on the midstream.” (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)

1332 ET – Rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. slipped by one this week to 482, while rigs directed at natural gas edged up by 1 to 103, oil services company Baker Hughes reports. Oil rigs averaged 480 in 4Q, versus 500 in 4Q23. U.S. producers have maintained record output with fewer rigs, with prospects of further increases this year. “We’ve gotten a lot more efficient. U.S. producers can make money at lower prices. Drilling longer laterals lowers your cost per barrel, and we’ve found better ways to complete the wells which lowers the cost per barrel,” says Adam Ferrari, CEO of Phoenix Capital Group, a small producer with current output around 20,000 barrels a day. “We’re going to continue to increase our production as long as prices remain within this $65-$75 range.” (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0936 ET – Crude futures are higher and heading for weekly gains as the New Year came in with optimism that Chinese economic stimulus could support demand in 2025, and U.S. crude oil stocks were reported down for a sixth consecutive week, although the size of last week’s draw was at the low end of estimates. “We see crude staying within a holding pattern as some positive signs of the China’s economy emerge,” Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. WTI is up 0.6% at $73.57 a barrel, and Brent is 0.4% higher at $76.20 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com

0337 ET – Tullow Oil’s successful tax resolution in Ghana removes a contingent liability and improves the company’s ability to refinance its debts, Davy Research analyst Colin Grant writes. Tullow is no longer liable for $320 million of taxes due to the Ghana revenue authority and will have no future exposure to branch profits remittance tax under its petroleum agreements, he says. The decision helps support the company’s other two tax cases in the country, Grant adds.

Germán & Co 1/2/25 Germán & Co 1/2/25

What Does Europe's Third Dark Day Mean for the Future of Energy?

What Implications Does Europe's Third Dark Day Hold for the Future of Energy?

On Tuesday, the price of natural gas in Europe surged to 50 euros (approximately $51.88) per megawatt hour, signifying a pivotal moment in the energy sector. On August 30 of the preceding year, Dmitry Peskov, a prominent spokesperson for the Kremlin, issued a significant warning regarding the consequences of terminating the transit agreement. He indicated that discontinuing this arrangement could adversely affect European consumers reliant on Russian gas, potentially resulting in increased costs for alternative energy sources, such as liquefied natural gas from the United States.

The situation is underscored by the adage "do not play with fire or you will get burned," which aptly reflects the seriousness of the current circumstances. The intricate interplay of political accountability reveals the volatile nature of sensitive issues that can destabilize equilibrium. In the political arena, certain topics resemble a precarious tightrope walk—where a single miscalculation could lead to significant repercussions. These issues often arise from entrenched historical, cultural, or ideological divisions, possessing the capacity to disrupt the delicate balance that sustains global order and cohesion.

On July 2, 2022, Russia made a strategic, albeit potentially misjudged, decision to curtail natural gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Concurrently, the Andromeda vessel covertly traversed the Baltic Sea, preparing for a clandestine operation known only to a select few. By September 26, the Andromeda executed its mission, resulting in explosions that severely impacted both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines.

On January 26, 2024, the Biden administration announced a suspension of new permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects directed at nations without a free trade agreement with the United States. Recently, Ukraine also decided to cease its natural gas exports to Europe (Andromeda 2), in accordance with a pre-war transit agreement, while Germany discreetly engages in diplomatic discussions with Russia.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“On Tuesday, the cost of natural gas in Europe soared to 50 euros (about $51.88) per megawatt hour, marking a significant moment in the energy market…

https://www.barrons.com/news/european-natural-gas-prices-reach-50-euros-per-mwh-91e89b12

On August 30 of the previous year, Dmitry Peskov, the wise voice of the Kremlin, delivered a crucial caution about the ramifications of ending the transit agreement. He suggested that pulling the plug on this deal could spell trouble for European consumers who depend on Russian gas, possibly leading to soaring prices for alternative energy options, such as liquefied natural gas from the U.S…

http://gasprocessingnews.com/news/2024/08/kremlin-says-europe-will-pay-more-unless-ukraine-extends-gas-transit-deal/

The road…

The age-old adage "don't play with fire or you'll get burned" captures the gravity of the situation at hand. The delicate dance of political accountability unveils the unpredictable nature of sensitive issues that can tip the scales of stability. In the realm of politics, some topics are like a tightrope walk—one misstep could send everything tumbling down. These matters often stem from deep-seated historical, cultural, or ideological rifts, holding the power to disrupt the fragile balance that upholds global order and unity.

On July 2, 2022, Russia executed a strategic (or potentially miscalculated) decision to reduce natural gas deliveries to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Meanwhile, the Andromeda vessel stealthily navigated the Baltic Sea, gearing up for a secretive mission known to a select few. By September 26, the Andromeda sprang into action, triggering explosions that rocked both the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines.

On January 26, 2024, the Biden administration in Washington announced a halt on new permits for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects aimed at countries lacking a free trade agreement with the U.S. Just yesterday, Ukraine decided to halt its natural gas flow to Europe (Andromeda 2), adhering to a pre-war transit agreement, all while Germany quietly engages in peace talks with Russia.

The economic and political implications of Ukraine's role in gas transit are complex and multifaceted…

Whit the end of the five-year agreement expires governing one of the oldest and biggest economic links between Russia and Europe: the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. Nevertheless, this does not eliminate the possibility of Russian gas flowing through Ukraine in the future; in the ever-changing landscape of our virtual age, anything can happen.

In the wake of the geopolitical turmoil over the past two years, Russian gas now reaches Europe through two primary routes, each facilitating the transport of approximately 14 billion cubic meters of gas annually. The first route is the TurkStream pipeline, along with its extension, Balkan Stream, which traverses the Black Sea to Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary. The second route involves a corridor through Ukraine to Slovakia.

The principal purchasers of Russian gas include, Hungary, Austria, Italy, whose current administrations a pragmatic approach to foreign policy. Although Russian gas prices are now more closely aligned with European exchange rates than in the previous decade, they remain more economical than liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly during periods of price volatility. Consequently, some nations exhibit hesitance to completely cease their purchases of Russian gas, despite their commitment to the REPowerEU initiative, which aims for a complete phase-out of Russian gas by 2027.

European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson indicated to reporters at the close of the previous year that the prevailing scenario does not account for these supplies. The Austrian company OMV has expressed its willingness to continue purchasing Russian gas while simultaneously reserving capacity in pipelines and LNG receiving terminals to ensure it can operate independently.

Austria and Italy are expected to experience the least disruption from the cessation of Russian gas supplies. Austria benefits from multiple intersecting pipelines within its territory, while Italy has alternative sources, albeit at a higher cost, including gas imports from Algeria and Azerbaijan via pipelines, as well as several LNG terminals. Hungary's situation is somewhat more complex, as it could still receive Russian gas through TurkStream. Conversely, Slovakia has limited alternatives and would need to arrange for a reverse flow from the Austrian hub or receive gas through smaller German LNG terminals. Slovakia's position along the supply route means its ability to procure gas will depend on the sufficiency of supplies for Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has proposed that rather than the Ukrainian gas pipeline operator (OGTSU) entering into a transportation contract with Russia, European companies could sign such contracts, effectively purchasing gas at the Russia-Ukraine border and delegating the transportation to Ukraine.

After Ukraine cease the transit of Russian gas, the transit system operator may declare certain pipeline sections or infrastructure as decommissioned. However, if these assets are deemed operational, European companies could reserve transport capacity on a daily, monthly, or annual basis, similar to arrangements made for gas delivery from the LNG terminal in Belgium to domestic markets.

There are potential advantages for Ukraine in continuing to transport Russian gas. Mechanisms referred to as "virtual reverse" and "virtual transportation" have allowed Ukraine to sustain physical gas supplies even after halting purchases from Gazprom and shifting to European traders. Presently, despite a significant reduction in gas consumption due to the ongoing conflict and sufficient domestic deposits, this system remains beneficial.

The challenge lies in the geographical mismatch between gas extraction and consumption centers, which is where virtual transportation becomes relevant. Currently, the process of delivering gas from Ukrainian fields to consumers is effectively virtual: Russian gas is directed to certain regions, particularly in the south, while Ukrainian gas is funneled into the Slovak gas transportation system. Without an external supply of Russian gas, Ukraine would need to modify its pipeline infrastructure and operational procedures.

The situation may become increasingly complex if the Ukrainian economy recovers and gas demand rises. In the absence of Russian gas, Ukraine would need to procure gas from Austria, cover transit costs through Slovakia, and arrange for delivery from the western border to central consumption areas. At the current European gas exchange prices, physically reversing the flow would incur an additional cost of $30–40 per 1,000 cubic meters compared to the existing virtual reverse arrangement.

In 2022, Ukraine initiated the provision of large-scale gas storage facilities in the western part of the country to EU nations and intends to continue this practice. However, this operation heavily relies on virtual reverse and swap transactions, which depend on the ability to purchase gas at Austria's Baumgarten hub and transport it virtually to Ukrainian storage facilities without charge. The absence of Russian gas transit would complicate and increase the costs associated with such operations.

Russia would also face significant financial repercussions if it could no longer transport gas through Ukraine. There are no comparable alternative markets for the Yamal gas currently supplied to Europe, and this situation is unlikely to change substantially, even with the anticipated construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China (not expected before 2030) and an LNG facility in the Baltic Sea (planned for 2026–2027). The combined capacity of these two projects is approximately half of the volume by which supplies to Europe have already diminished.

According to Gazprom's Chief Financial Officer Famil Sadygov, the state-owned gas company's revenues from gas sales, both domestically and internationally, amounted to approximately $48 billion in 2023. Consequently, a loss of $7–8 billion annually in export revenues for 15 billion cubic meters of gas would represent a 15 percent reduction in revenue, significantly impacting Gazprom's gas business EBITDA (excluding its stake in Gazprom Neft).

Another concern for Gazprom involves the potential for financial damage claims from its European customers. Some of the company's long-term contracts with EU nations extend through 2040, and any failure to deliver gas due to issues with a transport company would be considered the supplier's responsibility. If Kyiv prohibits the transportation of Russian gas, this may be classified as force majeure, potentially absolving Gazprom of its delivery obligations. However, if the Ukrainian gas transit system operator simply ceases operations at the border metering station, declaring the route closed and halting gas acceptance from the Russian side, the situation would be markedly different.

Additionally, it is important to note that payments for Russian gas are processed by EU companies through Gazprombank, which means that neither the bank nor Gazprom itself would be subject to comprehensive blocking sanctions while the transaction remains active.

While it may currently be challenging to envision a restoration of relations post-conflict, it is noteworthy that returning to previous supply levels from a reduced baseline under an existing contract is generally more feasible than re-establishing completely severed ties and negotiating new contracts. For Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, the flow of Russian gas and the ability to halt it represent one of the few remaining avenues for escalation.

From a pragmatic perspective, the continuation of gas transit beyond the end of 2024 is likely to yield benefits for both Russia and Ukraine, as well as for European nations that persist in purchasing Russian gas.

The landscape may shift in 2026–2027, when substantial new volumes of LNG from the United States and Qatar are expected to enter the market. It is conceivable that supply growth could outpace demand growth, leading to a significant decline in LNG prices. Consequently, it may become more economically viable for EU countries to forgo Russian gas, intensifying political pressure as the deadlines outlined in the REPowerEU initiative approach.

Nonetheless, numerous uncertainties remain in this scenario. The Biden administration in Washington has announced a pause on granting new LNG projects the authority to export to countries lacking a free trade agreement with the United States. While this will not impact market dynamics in 2026, it may lead European buyers to question the reliability and sustainability of U.S. LNG supplies, potentially prompting them to retain alternative options, including continued engagement with Russia.

To wrap things up, natural gas has become a powerful player on the geopolitical stage, capable of sparking tensions and disputes. Europe finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with a tough choice: should it keep battling against imperial Russia or shift gears to foster trade ties with them?

Today…

Ukraine Halts Flow of Natural Gas From Russia to Europe…

TIME, penned by HANNA ARHIROVA and JOANNA KOZLOWSKA of AP on the first day of 2025.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1874690656192372746

Ukraine Halts Flow of Natural Gas From Russia to Europe…

TIME, penned by HANNA ARHIROVA and JOANNA KOZLOWSKA of AP on the first day of 2025.

Ukraine on Wednesday halted Russian gas supplies to European customers through its pipeline network after a prewar transit deal expired at the end of 2024 and almost three years into Moscow’s all-out invasion of its neighbor.

Even as Russian troops and tanks moved into Ukraine in February 2022, Russian natural gas kept flowing through the country’s pipeline network — set up when Ukraine and Russia were both part of the Soviet Union — to Europe, under a five-year agreement.

Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom earned money from the gas and Ukraine collected transit fees.

Ukraine’s energy minister, Herman Halushchenko, confirmed Kyiv had stopped the transit “in the interest of national security.”

“This is a historic event. Russia is losing markets and will incur financial losses,” Halushchenko said Wednesday on the Telegram messaging app. “Europe has already decided to phase out Russian gas, and (this) aligns with what Ukraine has done today.”

At a summit in Brussels last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that Kyiv would not allow Moscow to use the transits to earn “additional billions … on our blood, on the lives of our citizens.” However, he briefly held open the possibility of the gas flows continuing if payments to Russia were withheld until the war ends.

Gazprom said in a statement Wednesday it “has no technical and legal possibility” of sending gas through Ukraine, due to Kyiv’s refusal to extend the deal.

Before the war, Russia supplied nearly 40% of the European Union’s pipeline natural gas. Gas flowed through four pipeline systems, one under the Baltic Sea, one through Belarus and Poland, one through Ukraine and one under the Black Sea through Turkey to Bulgaria.

After the war started, Russia cut off most supplies through the Baltic and Belarus-Poland pipelines, citing disputes over a demand for payment in rubles. The Baltic pipeline was blown up in an act of sabotage, but details of the attack remain murky.

The Russian cutoff caused an energy crisis in Europe. Germany had to shell out billions of euros to set up floating terminals to import liquefied natural gas that comes by ship, not by pipeline. Users cut back as prices soared. Norway and the United States filled the gap, becoming the two largest suppliers.

Europe viewed the Russian cutoff as energy blackmail and has outlined plans to completely eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027.

Zelenskyy said Wednesday that halting the transits would see Moscow lose “one of the most profitable and geographically accessible markets” for its gas. In a post on X, he said Russia was “resorting to cynical blackmail of partners.”

Russia’s share of the EU pipeline natural gas market dropped sharply to about 8% in 2023, according to data from the EU Commission. The Ukrainian transit route served EU members Austria and Slovakia, which long got the bulk of their natural gas from Russia but have recently scrambled to diversify supplies.

Gazprom halted supplies to Austria’s OMV in mid-November over a contractual dispute, but gas flows through Ukraine’s pipelines continued as other customers stepped in. Slovakia this year inked deals to begin buying natural gas from Azerbaijan, and also to import U.S. liquefied natural gas through a pipeline from Poland.

Among the hardest-hit will be EU candidate country Moldova, which was receiving Russian gas via Ukraine and has brought in emergency measures as residents brace for a harsh winter and looming power cuts.

Separately from Kyiv’s decision to let the transit deal expire, Gazprom said last month it will halt gas supplies to Moldova starting on Jan. 1, citing unpaid debt. Gazprom has said Moldova owes close to $709 million for past gas supplies, a figure the country has fiercely disputed.

Heating and hot water supplies were abruptly cut off Wednesday to households in Transnistria, Moldova’s breakaway region that has for decades hosted Russian troops, as Russian natural gas stopped flowing to the territory, local transit operator Tiraspoltransgaz-Transnistria said.

In an online statement, the company urged residents to gather household members together in a single room, hang blankets over windows and balcony doors, and use electric heaters. It said some key facilities, including hospitals, were exempt from the cuts.

On Dec. 13, Moldova’s parliament voted in favor of imposing a state of emergency in the energy sector, as fears mounted that the gas shortages could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, for decades dependent on Russian energy supplies.

Many observers have predicted that the looming energy shortage could force people in the separatist territory to travel to Moldova proper, seeking basic amenities to get through the harsh winter and placing further strain on resources.

Moldova, Ukraine and EU politicians have repeatedly accused Moscow of weaponizing energy supplies.

On Wednesday, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski called Ukraine’s move to halt supplies a win for those opposed to the Kremlin’s policies. In a post on X, Sikorski accused Moscow of systematic attempts to “blackmail Eastern Europe with the threat of cutting off gas supplies,” including through a Baltic pipeline bypassing Ukraine and Poland and running directly to Germany.

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico claimed Wednesday the end of gas flows via Ukraine “will drastically affect us all in the EU but not Russia.”

Fico, whose views on Russia have sharply differed from the European mainstream, has previously criticized Kyiv’s refusal to extend the transit deal, and threatened to end electricity supplies to Ukraine in response.

Moscow can still send gas to Hungary, as well as non-EU states Turkey and Serbia, through the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea.

The steady reduction of Russian gas supplies to European countries has also spurred them to hasten the integration of Ukraine’s energy grids with its neighbors to the west.

Last week, private Ukrainian energy utility DTEK said it had received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., delivered through a newly expanded network spanning six countries from Greece to Ukraine — a significant step in reducing regional dependence on Russian energy.

Germán & Co 12/17/24 Germán & Co 12/17/24

(NYT) ”The Panama Canal Has a Big Problem, but It’s Not China or Trump…

Reagan's Retreat from Panama: Will Trump Imitate Him?

Recently, Donald Trump seemed to lack a common trait of authoritarian leaders: the desire for territorial conquest. Although he briefly considered acquiring Greenland during his first term, this idea was dismissed as a whimsical fantasy by Denmark. Yet, as the holiday season approached, Trump revived this notion, presenting it as more than just a quirky trophy for his electoral victory.

His cheeky jab at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him "governor," and failed attempts to involve hockey legend Wayne Gretzky in politics were more than playful banter. This also includes his bold threats about the Panama Canal, a vital artery for global trade.

The president-elect's remarks suggest expansionist ambitions. While he cannot annex or intimidate nations—like the other 193 resisting U.S. pressure—he may use military power to pursue goals beyond securing rare earth minerals (Greenland), enhancing border security (Canada), and reducing shipping costs (Panama). Trump seems to seek a new world order marked by political turmoil, aligning with authoritarian leaders while leaving democratic allies vulnerable to capitulation.

This pattern raises concerns about Trump's erratic behavior during the festive season. Authoritarian leaders often exploit perceived national security threats to justify foreign interventions that enhance their power. While Trump avoided military entanglements in his first term, China's growing influence may soon provide a justification for military action.

Trump resembles Kaiser Wilhelm II more than Adolf Hitler, as both share a brash nationalism that contributed to global conflict. John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, warned that a major international crisis is "much more likely" if Trump wins a second term.

While Greenland and Canada are unlikely battlegrounds, Panama may be at risk. Trump recently criticized Jimmy Carter for "foolishly" transferring control of the canal to Panama through narrowly passed treaties in 1978. The Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that rejecting these treaties could incite violence in Panama, potentially requiring the deployment of 100,000 U.S. troops—echoing a Vietnam War scenario in our hemisphere.

In 1976, Ronald Reagan nearly secured the Republican nomination against President Gerald Ford with his bold claim, "We bought it, we paid for it, it’s ours." Despite advice to delay the Panama Canal treaties until a potential second term, Carter pressed on, leading to the loss of several Democratic Senate seats due to their support for ratification. (NYT, Today)

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“January 2025”, A New Year Marked By Uncertainty And Challenges...

In the United States, the assumption of the presidency of President Donald Trump to a new mandate. Meanwhile, the European Union faces, Ukraine halts the flow of natural gas from to the continent. Germany, in his New Year's address, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz asserted that the outcome of the German elections will not be determined by the proprietors of social media platforms. Venezuela, in the midst of endless rumours, is waiting for its 'D' day to change its destiny... What will happen on 10 January remains to be seen... maybe. Furthermore, Denmark and Panama, these two small countries, are looking forward to the next months of foreign policy, no doubt with caution and above all in the hope that the "carrot and stick" law will not be imposed.

Greetings to all, and best wishes for a prosperous and healthy year in 2025…

The year 2024 has been characterized by many as a “horribilis annus”, culminating in a series of fatal plane crashes across various regions. As we transition into 2025, it is reasonable to designate this new year as one marked by “incertus”.

The blog's analysis is largely accurate, the exception President Donald Trump's unforeseen challenge to Panama regarding canal fees. We have analyzed the geopolitical issues of both canals. The Panama accounts for 5% of the world trade, the Suez Canal accounts for %.

The Panamanian authorities' reassurances to their citizens regarding the sovereignty of the waterway are certainly valid. However, it is clear that they are also mindful of December 20, 1989, when United States military forces swiftly took control of the country in a few hours with minimal resistance, despite the presence of the "Battalions of Dignity" and a significant Cuban presence.

The situation concerning Greenland is less unexpected, as it represents a recurring theme in the foreign policy dynamics between the two nations.

Regarding energy policy, the article titled: "Musk believes in global warming. Trump doesn't. Will That Change?" published by the New York Times on November 8, 2024, may provide valuable insights. “Elon Musk has consistently acknowledged climate change as a significant issue, although he has occasionally fluctuated in his assessment of its urgency. He has been a longstanding advocate for the transition to low-emission technologies, including solar energy, battery storage, and electric vehicles. In a biography released last year by Walter Isaacson, it was noted that Mr. Musk's interest in solar power and electric vehicles originated during his college years, driven by his concerns about the threats posed by global warming and the potential depletion of fossil fuel resources”.

In this uncertain year, we can only wish them all the best for 2025.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1874473445569831024

The Panama Canal Has a Big Problem, but It’s Not China or Trump…

New York Times, January 1, 2025, Dennis M. Hogan

Dr. Hogan teaches in the History and Literature program at Harvard University. His research focuses on Central America and the United States in the 19th and 20th centuries.

In 2023, on a research trip to Panama, I booked a day tour of the Panama Canal. I expected to hear the usual story about the canal’s epic construction, importance in world trade and successful expansion to allow for larger modern ships. What I did not expect was the overwhelming sense of concern, even panic, among people who depend on the canal for their livelihoods.

It was July, the middle of Panama’s rainy season. But the rains had been sparse, and water levels in the canal had sunk to troubling lows. Without freshwater from rain, our guide explained, the locks on the canal could not operate.

I remembered that visit after President-elect Donald Trump said recently that the Chinese were threatening America’s interests at the canal, and he engaged in some saber rattling by suggesting that the United States could take back control of the passage, which was returned to Panama exactly 25 years ago Tuesday. The handover treaties were a signature achievement of President Jimmy Carter, who died on Sunday; Mr. Trump’s comments were in keeping with longstanding criticism that the move was a strategic mistake.

But Mr. Trump misunderstands the true threat to U.S. commerce through Panama. If the goal is securing affordable access to the transit point over the long term, it is climate change, not Chinese influence, that U.S. policymakers should worry about.

Here’s why. Sending a single ship through the canal’s locks can use around 50 million gallons of water, mainly freshwater collected from Lake Gatún. Though the canal is, for the moment, operating at full capacity, a drier climate and greater demand for drinking water have in recent years reduced the volume of available water. That has forced the state-run Panama Canal Authority at times to limit the number of daily passages through the canal, at one point by as much as 40 percent.

A changing climate, a changing world..

Climate change around the world: In “Postcards From a World on Fire,” 193 stories from individual countries show how climate change is reshaping reality everywhere, from dying coral reefs in Fiji to disappearing oases in Morocco and far, far beyond.

The role of our leaders: Writing at the end of 2020, Al Gore, the 45th vice president of the United States, found reasons for optimism in the Biden presidency, a feeling perhaps borne out by the passing of major climate legislation. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been criticisms. For example, Charles Harvey and Kurt House argue that subsidies for climate capture technology will ultimately be a waste.

The worst climate risks, mapped: In this feature, select a country, and we'll break down the climate hazards it faces. In the case of America, our maps, developed with experts, show where extreme heat is causing the most deaths.

What people can do: Justin Gillis and Hal Harvey describe the types of local activism that might be needed, while Saul Griffith points to how Australia shows the way on rooftop solar. Meanwhile, small changes at the office might be one good way to cut significant emissions, writes Carlos Gamarra.

With less rain, the reservoirs fill up more slowly, which means less water available to operate the locks, which means fewer ships can pass. Hence, the 2023-24 drought, among the worst on record, slowed transits and drove up transit prices, causing long delays, more expensive consumer goods and greater instability in shipping routes. These were probably the increases Mr. Trump referred to as a “rip-off.”

The limited number of passages has led to auctions for passage rights that further inflated the growing cost of shipping goods through the canal (the canal authority had increased tolls just before the 2023 drought began). In the short term, reduced access causes goods to take longer to reach their destinations, and they cost more when they do arrive. Over the medium term, companies have begun to seek alternate routes and different methods of moving goods. Some projects, like a railway corridor across southern Mexico, have emerged to directly compete with the Panama Canal. Over the long term, as trade volume and ship sizes increase while the amount of available water decreases, the canal could well lose market share, declining in both usefulness and strategic importance.

The 2023-24 drought was due in part to a strong El Niño effect, as rising seawater surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean altered weather patterns worldwide. Scientists generally agree that climate change is making El Niño events more frequent and more severe. Higher temperatures have increased the evaporation of water off the reservoir, too, further reducing the water supply.

Mr. Trump’s insinuations about Chinese influence and his demands for lower transit fees, or the canal’s return to U.S. control, have of course not won him admiration in Panama, least of all among civic leaders more concerned with solving the canal’s challenges.

In recent days, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama has repeatedly rejected accusations of Chinese influence. He declared at a news conference last week that “the Panama Canal is Panamanian and belongs to Panamanians” and that Panamanian control of the waterway had cost the country “blood, sweat and tears.” There is no legal mechanism by which Mr. Trump might demand its return.

Panamanians are rightly proud of their administration of the canal over the past 25 years; in suggesting that the United States retains any claim to it, Mr. Trump risks alienating a country that remains friendly to the United States despite a long history of U.S. arrogance toward the Panamanian people.

Panama has been a global crossroads since the 19th century. A sea route across the isthmus was first imagined by the Spanish in the 16th century; the overland route between the oceans rose to prominence in the 1840s and 1850s during the California Gold Rush. Through the 19th century, the United States competed against other imperial powers, mainly Britain and France, for land and influence in Central America. Controlling Panama was a key feature of the American rise to hemispheric dominance and overseas empire in the wake of the Spanish-American War of 1898.

Panamanians have benefited from that competition, but they have equally been victimized by it: Panama became independent in 1903, but sovereignty came at the cost of ceding the Canal Zone to the United States. Both before and after the construction of the canal, U.S. military intervention was a constant threat. Since the 1840s, the United States has intervened frequently to protect its commercial interests in Panama. U.S. troops deployed to Panama 13 times between 1856 and 1903 alone. Most seriously, the 1989 invasion resulted in the death of hundreds of Panamanian civilians, although unofficial estimates put the number in the thousands.

The history of U.S.-Panama relations is neither simple nor straightforward. The United States built the canal, and, what’s more, without support from the U.S. military, Panama would likely never have been able to secede from Colombia and establish itself as an independent nation. The United States has served as an occupier, but also a major trading partner, ally and source of cultural influence.

Many Americans have Panamanian roots and an increasing number of Americans live in Panama. Now migrants from places such as Haiti and Venezuela are crossing the Daríén Gap straddling Colombia and Panama en route to the United States, prompting a fresh humanitarian emergency and new challenges for both Panama and the United States. These are nations whose fates are tied together.

From Panama to Greenland, Mr. Trump’s expansionist ambitions point to a larger truth: In a world increasingly dependent on extended supply chains that crisscross the globe, mastery of logistics translates to economic security. Taking Pama (as Teddy Roosevelt did), Mr. Trump imagines, might secure U.S. access to the canal, while buying Greenland (as he has also suggested) would guarantee a U.S. presence at the entrance to a future northwest passage through the melting Arctic ice. In Mr. Trump’s view of international competition, it seems sea routes are to be seized, controlled and monopolized — not shared among nations with equal access to all — as is the Panama Canal.

Costs of transiting the canal are going up. But neither so-called Panamanian greed nor Chinese influence determines these costs. The truth is more straightforward, if more daunting: If we want to ensure fair, equal and sustainable access to the canal, it is climate change we’ll have to beat — not the Chinese.

Trump Wants U.S. Control of the Panama Canal. Here Are 3 Things to Know…

Treaties ratified by the Senate in 1978 established permanent neutrality, but some Republicans regret that decision. President-elect Donald J. Trump stated that Panama charges U.S. vessels "exorbitant prices" to transit the Panama Canal.

NYT by Lisa Friedman, December 26, 2024.

President-elect Donald J. Trump this week escalated his threats to retake control of the Panama Canal, falsely accusing Panama of allowing Chinese soldiers to control the vital shipping route and of overcharging American ships.

Mr. Trump has claimed Panama charges U.S. vessels “exorbitant prices” and warned that if they are not reduced after he takes office next month, he will demand that the United States be granted control of the canal “in full, quickly and without question.”

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump went on another tear. Announcing his choice for ambassador to the central American nation, Kevin Marino Cabrera, he accused the Panamanian government of “ripping us off on the Panama Canal, far beyond their wildest dreams.” In a holiday screed on his social media site, Truth Social, Mr. Trump wished a merry Christmas to “the wonderful soldiers of China” who he inaccurately said were operating the canal, and griped that the United States “puts in Billions of Dollars” for canal maintenance “but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”

While it is unclear what prompted Mr. Trump’s recent obsession with the Panama Canal, some Republicans have long objected to turning it over to Panamanian control. When Ronald Reagan ran for president, he said the people of the United States were the canal’s “rightful owners” and brought audiences to their feet with the line: “We bought it; we paid for it; we built it.”

The United States under President Jimmy Carter’s administration entered into two treaties, culminating in formally turning over control of the canal to the Panamanians on Dec. 31, 1999.

“There’s a certain wing of the Republican Party that’s always been skeptical of the handover,” said Ryan C. Berg, the director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

“Complaints tend to crop up around the anniversary, and now that seems to be coming to a head because of the China issue and the desire to compete with China in the region,” he said.

Here’s three important things to know about the Panama Canal as the issue moves forward.

Who Owns the Panama Canal?

The Panama Canal was built by the United States between 1904 and 1914, and the U.S. government managed it for several decades. That situation created significant tensions with Panama over the years, and in 1964, anti-American riots broke out in the canal zone.

The riots led to the renegotiation of the Panama Canal treaties, and in 1977 Mr. Carter and the Panamanian leader Omar Efraín Torrijos signed the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. The pair of agreements guaranteed the permanent neutrality of the Panama Canal. After a period of joint custody, the treaties called for the United States to relinquish control over the canal by the year 2000.

Panama took full control in 1999, and has since operated the canal through the Panama Canal Authority.

In a statement of rebuke to Mr. Trump on Sunday, President José Raúl Mulino of Panama said “every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area belong to PANAMA.”

Mr. Mulino says U.S. vessels are not being overcharged.

Rates being charged to ships and naval vessels, he insisted, are “not on a whim.”

A Trump spokeswoman said that because the United States is the biggest user of the canal, the increase in fees hits its ships the most.

Panamanian officials said all countries are subject to the same fees, though they would differ based on ship size. They are established in public meetings by the Panama Canal Authority, and take into account market conditions, international competition, operating and maintenance costs, Mr. Mulino said.

Rates have gone up recently, however. That’s because starting in 2023, Panama experienced severe drought, driven by a combination of El Niño and climate change. With water levels at Gatun Lake, the principal hydrological reserve for the canal, at historically low levels, authorities reduced shipping through the canal to conserve the lake’s fresh water.

Mr. Trump has called climate change a hoax.

Does China control the Panama Canal?

Chinese soldiers are not, as Mr. Trump has claimed, “operating” the Panama Canal.

“There are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for the love of God,” Mr. Mulino said in a speech Thursday. “The world is free to visit the canal.”

A Hong Kong-based firm, CK Hutchison Holdings, does manage two ports at the canal’s entrances. And some experts have said that does raise valid competitive and security concerns for the United States because Hong Kong is now part of China.

For example, Mr. Berg noted, the company would likely have data on all ships coming through the Panama Canal, giving it a data advantage. China also has been using its shipping and maritime operations to gather foreign intelligence and conduct espionage.

“China exercises, or could exercise, a certain element of control even absent some military conflagration,” Mr. Berg said. “I think there is reason to be worried.”

Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said Tuesday that China “will as always respect Panama’s sovereignty” over the Panama Canal.

China is the second-largest user of the Panama Canal after the United States. In 2017, Panama cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan and recognized it as part of China, a major win for Beijing.

Can the United States Reassert Control?

Not easily.

Mr. Mulino has made clear the Panama Canal is not for sale. He noted that the treaties established permanent neutrality of the canal and “guaranteeing its open and safe operation for all nations.” And the Senate ratified the Panama Canal treaties in 1978.

Mick Mulvaney, Mr. Trump’s former chief of staff, suggested that the provocations were merely part of a negotiating tactic to get rates down.

“You know, I don’t envision American troops going in to retake the canal, but you got to think that someone is out there scratching their head going, ‘Is Donald Trump crazy enough to do something like that?’” Mr. Mulvaney said Tuesday on “The Hill” on NewsNation.

Mr. Berg said the neutrality agreement made it unlikely that Panama would even be able to grant special rates to the United States. And, he noted, Mr. Mulino is “incredibly pro-American” and likely eager to help the incoming Trump administration deal with issues like illegal immigration.

“President Mulino is going to be a great ally with the United States,” Mr. Berg said. “We should not want this to devolve into some kind of political fight because we’re going to need President Mulino on a number of other issues.”

Germán & Co 12/10/24 Germán & Co 12/10/24

South American and Caribbean Natural Gas: A Strategic Asset in Uncertain Times…

“Cosmic forces have aligned to awaken the dormant natural gas reserves in Latin America's heart, preparing them for their moment to shine…

“The natural gas surge in the Dominican Republic, led by AES Dominicana, is a game-changer that is creating new opportunities.

“Cheers to Our Success! —Merco 2024 has recognized AES Dominicana as the foremost powerhouse in the energy sector of the Dominicancong, and we have also secured a position among the Top most reputable communications teams. This prestigious accolade, endorsed by KPMG a testament to our unwavering commitment to sustainability, excellence, and responsible energy production. Ricardo Manuel Falú serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, President of the New Technologies Strategic Business Unit at the AES Corporation.

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“Cosmic forces have aligned to awaken the dormant natural gas reserves in Latin America's heart, preparing them for their moment to shine…

“The natural gas surge in the Dominican Republic, led by AES Dominicana, is a game-changer that is creating new opportunities.

“Cheers to Our Success! —Merco 2024 has recognized AES Dominicana as the foremost powerhouse in the energy sector of the Dominican Republic, and we have also secured a position among the Top  most reputable communications teams. This prestigious accolade, endorsed by KPMG a testament to our unwavering commitment to sustainability, excellence, and responsible energy production.                                                                                                                                          Ricardo Manuel Falú serves as the Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, President of the New Technologies Strategic Business Unit at the AES Corporation.

Greetings, everyone! Wishing you a wonderful Wednesday filled with abundant health and love!

In a recent burst of insight—a vuelapluma—(1) concerning the 'Syria narrowed future' case, highlighted by the blog on Sunday the 9th, it becomes clear that the complex bond between Turkey's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, plays a crucial role in this unfolding narrative. The multifaceted factors that determine a country's geopolitical power, with financial strength playing a key role, are crucial to understand. The significant influence of natural gas on the global energy markets cannot be overstated, and the decisions of leaders like Putin and Erdoğan carry weighty consequences for the energy industry.(2) Turkey's strategic position as a conduit for natural gas between Asia and Europe could greatly affect regional economies. Despite its importance, the robust relationship between Erdoğan and Putin and the geopolitical significance of Syria for Russia were not addressed. The future of Syria remains enigmatic, potentially mirroring Afghanistan's turbulent history and its issues with Al-Qaeda. The only certainty in these times is the global conflict that is directly influencing fuel supply routes. Other pressing issues, such as the volatile situation in South Korea, must also be taken into account. Moreover, the sudden collapse of the Al-Assad regime is a development that warrants attention…(3) That say, the fact is today. One week before the HTS offensive aimed at overthrowing Al-Assad, the leader of the group, Abu Mohammed al Jawlani, convened with the intelligence directors from Turkey, the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and likely the United Arab Emirates in the southern region of the country, which serves as the operational base for the rebel faction. This meeting marked a departure from previous discussions that had only included Turkey, Russia, and Iran. During this gathering, al Jawlani was informed that Russia would not extend its protection to Al-Assad, as the Kremlin's strategic interests—including its air and naval bases, as well as its oil and gas concessions—would remain unaffected (4). And the nation's political future remained in a precarious grey area, also known as No Man's Land. (5)

Let’s take a moment to highlight the remarkable natural gas molecule—an invisible, odorless, and non-toxic gem in the energy landscape. This fascinating compound, primarily composed of methane, features a straightforward structure with just one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms. Whether hailed as a hero or criticized as a villain, it’s clear that natural gas will stay a prized resource in the energy sector for many years to come.

Well, the American continent is marked by a multifaceted geopolitical landscape, particularly observable in the northern region, where the border reflects the divergent interests linked to tequila and bourbon. Central America has undergone considerable turmoil, mirroring the volatility of its volcanoes in recent decades. In South America, the foundations of democracy have been firmly laid.; but, two nations continue to face challenges related to post-colonial instability. Just, a single country appears to have “temporarily” misplaced its sense of social cohesion. Despite these difficulties, the regions a promising environment for investment compared to other global contexts.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

(1) -A vuelapluma: adverb: quickly ⧫ without much thought

(2) https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/09/russia-takes-a-political-military-and-economic-hit-as-syrias-assad-falls-from-power-a87266

(3) https://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-says-syrias-al-assad-115810417.html?

(4) https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/siria-damasco-rebeldes-regimen-caido-bashar-al-assad-conclusiones-tv (Profesor Joseph Hague)

(5) https://www.cato.org/multimedia/power-problems/fall-assad-syrias-uncertain-future

Drill, baby, drill…

In 2022, the United States reported a substantial volume of natural gas reserves, totaling around 691 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), as indicated in the United States Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves report. This figure, noted as of December 31, 2022, and categorized as wet gas, is indeed significant. Nonetheless, this places the United States in the fourth position globally in terms of natural gas reserves, trailing behind Russia, Iran, and Qatar.

South America: An Emerging Leader in Drilling Ventures…

South America is witnessing a revival as a significant site for drilling activities, boasting an estimated 13.4 trillion cubic meters of commercially viable natural gas reserves. Venezuela is at the forefront, possessing the largest proven reserves on the continent, which amount to 203 trillion cubic feet, positioning it ninth globally and surpassing both the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. It is noteworthy that over 80% of these reserves are associated with oil deposits. As the global focus shifts towards sustainable energy solutions, Venezuela's extensive natural gas reserves represent a critical asset for fulfilling international energy demands.

In addition, Brazil, under the leadership of President Inacio Lula da Silva, who is currently recovering from emergency cranial hemorrhage surgery in São Paulo, holds the second-largest reserves in South America, estimated at 14.4 trillion cubic feet, primarily situated in offshore pre-salt fields that are linked to oil extraction.

Argentina, led by President Javier Milei, has seen its proven natural gas reserves increase to 15.4 trillion cubic feet, marking an 11% rise from the previous year and a threefold increase over the past decade. This growth is largely attributed to the advancement of the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which gained momentum in 2013 following the nationalization of YPF, previously owned by Repsol, during Cristina de Kirchner's administration.

Conversely, Bolivia, which was once a significant player in the southern cone natural gas market, is currently experiencing a decline in its fossil fuel sector. The country's proven reserves are estimated at 9 trillion cubic feet, a decrease from 11 trillion a decade ago, indicative of a broader downturn in the industry. As of June 2023, Bolivia's natural gas production was reported to be 1.25 billion cubic feet.

Caribbean Natural Gas: A Vital Resource in Unpredictable Times…

Despite facing severe hurricanes, the Caribbean's natural gas industry continues to thrive. In a landscape characterized by unpredictable shifts, global conflicts affecting the energy market, the region is emerging as a key energy player with considerable potential. At the hearth to this transformation is natural gas, poised to reshape the Caribbean's energy landscape. Currently, other areas of the world are facing significant risks related to drilling and transporting fuel. For instance, a tanker bound for Syria with Iranian crude oil reversed course following the downfall of Assad, as reported by BNN Bloomberg, yesterday.

The region stands on the brink of an energy revolution, timely driven by the recent discoveries of natural gas in Guyana and Suriname. These findings have sparked economic growth, especially in Guyana. As Guyana reaps the benefits of these developments, Suriname is poised to leverage its untapped potential.

Trinidad and Tobago, traditionally a powerhouse in the Caribbean energy sector, produces approximately 2.58 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas. However, signs indicate a decline in traditional oil and gas production. The Caribbean energy sector's success extends beyond individual national accomplishments, highlighting the significance of regional collaboration. The strategic alliance between Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago is crucial, providing significant economic and operational advantages, according to Melanie Chen, Founding Chair of the Caribbean, in an interview conducted in June of this year.

She stated that natural gas is increasingly acknowledged as a crucial transitional fuel that can aid in the move towards a more sustainable energy future while maintaining economic stability. By combining their resources and knowledge, these countries can maximize their natural gas reserves to create a more robust and integrated energy network, lessen dependence on imported fuels, and lower energy costs for their citizens.

Furthermore, Chen underscored the significant economic impact of natural gas in the Caribbean, observing that the exploitation of these resources could generate employment, boost industrial expansion, and improve energy security. She stressed that the prompt commercialization of oil and gas reserves is critical for the sustainable economic progress of the Southern Caribbean.

Natural gas serves as a cleaner alternative to traditional fossil fuels and aids in the integration of renewable energy by providing grid stability and backup power. Its dual role is essential for the region's energy strategy, offering immediate economic benefits and supporting long-term sustainability goals.

Transitioning to a natural gas-focused future presents challenges, including significant infrastructure investments for extraction, processing, and distribution. Upgrading transmission grids and expanding battery storage are crucial for a modern energy infrastructure.

The high initial costs could be a hurdle, especially for smaller Caribbean nations with limited funds. However, a mix of public and private investments and international cooperation is proposed to fund these projects, emphasizing a comprehensive funding strategy involving government spending, concessional financing, and public-private partnerships.

Natural Gas Expansion: Transforming the Dominican Republic's Energy Sector…

Introduction to the Voyage of Existence for the Better...

Image…

“Imagine a world where the skies gift us with electrical rainfall, a phenomenon where energy cascades from the heavens, promising to power our dreams and innovations. This is not just a flight of fancy, but a vision of a future where renewable energy is as natural and abundant as the rain that nourishes our earth. In this blog entry, we'll explore the exciting possibilities of harnessing the power of electrical storms, turning the might of nature into a sustainable source that could light up our cities and homes, and spark a revolution in how we think about and use energy. Join us on this electrifying journey as we delve into the potential of electrical rainfall and its role in powering a brighter, cleaner future. Imagine if we could store all this wonderful energy...

Big shoutout to AES Dominicana for their amazing support and unwavering commitment...

During a rainy season day in 1990, the power of the Caribbean Sea was tangible along the Santo Domingo boardwalk, where it relentlessly battered against George Washington Avenue. The darkness enveloped the city entirely, but amidst it, it was possible to discern the lively chords of merengue resonating from afar. The illumination source emanated from a neighbouring grocery store, which relied on a compact generator to power its lights. The volume of the music was so pronounced that it created the illusion of a live performance, overpowering even the sound of the crashing waves from the sea. As the music persisted, a new song started playing: a renowned bachata by Juan Luis Guerra and his 4.40, featuring the globally recognised lyrics: "I hope it will rain coffee." The noise maintained its previous volume, serving as a welcome diversion from the stifling heat that surrounded the island. No one could resist swaying their hips to the beat of the music, almost as if it were a necessary response to the scorching heat. A scream can be heard in the distance, —coño— Pancho... The light is coming, as if the dear friend were not seeing the miracle that is life…

Experiencing the phenomenon of —alumbrones— (the light coming), it may be Kafkaesque, but it is not. It is the production of electrical energy in the country. It was critical, if not non-existent, because of its precariousness. It’s because it evoked a profound sense of exhilaration and joy in individuals. When the electric light peeked out miserably. While the light was fleeting, it undoubtedly provided an unforgettable balsam bath. Thus, the scarcity of much-needed electricity in the Dominican Republic was evident. In other words, that was the dark reality of La Hispaniola. With good intentions and hard work, everything can change.

"A single image can communicate a multitude of messages. In this specific inst

AES Dominicana has made a significant contribution to improving the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system by using a variety of fuels and renewable energy sources.

Since its inception in the region, AES has always been committed to making a significant contribution to the energy sector by prioritising the implementation of effective and sustainable changes that benefit all stakeholders.

In 2000, AES demonstrated its commitment to the sustainable growth of the Dominican Republic by establishing AES Andrés. The project included a 319 MW combined-cycle power plant, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal and a gas pipe connecting to the DPP plant.

In the same year, AES also acquired the assets of GENER and a 25% stake in the ITABO S.A. power plant. In the following years, AES maintained its investment in the country by undertaking projects such as the conversion of gas turbines to natural gas and the acquisition of additional shares in ITABO S.A. These initiatives by AES have significantly improved the country's strategic energy position and reduced its dependence on oil derivatives for electricity generation.

In the 2010s, AES initiated the construction of AES Andrés 2000, a combined-cycle power plant that represents a significant advancement in the country's energy infrastructure. The company also launched the innovative Closing the Loop project at DPP. This initiative involved the installation of a steam turbine to improve operational effektivtency and support environmental and social progress.

In 2017, AES successfully completed the Closing the Loop initiative at DPP, resulting in a significant increase in capacity and efficiency at the plant. This progress contributed significantly to the country's environmental and social development goals. AES Dominicana is proud of its remarkable journey and looks forward to continuing its efforts to promote sustainable energy solutions for a brighter future.

Indeed, the AES Dominicana family is experiencing…

Since 2014, AES has implemented a long-term strategy to incorporate local partners to support the expansion and strengthening of the business and accompany the growth of the energy industry with a sustainability vision, both in the Dominican Republic and Panama.

"We derive immense value from partnering with strong local players who provide valuable support as we transition our businesses in both markets," said Juan Ignacio Rubiolo, executive vice president and president of AES's Energy Infrastructure Strategic Business Unit.

The first step began on September 3, 2014, when AES Dominicana forged a strategic partnership with local entities Estrella and Linda in New York. Estrella and Linda acquired a minority stake in the energy company.

Integrating Estrella and Linda into the AES Dominicana family is a strategic move and a powerful symbol of our shared vision and commitment. This alliance is not just about improving the electricity sector in the Dominican Republic but about ushering in a new era of national development across various productive industries.

The earnest dedication of the signatories to contribute to the resolution offers a promising perspective for the future of the energy sector in the Dominican Republic.

The collaboration between Estrella and Linda is a pivotal element of AES's comprehensive long-term growth strategy in the Dominican Republic. This strategy, presented to the Dominican Republic authorities in December 2012, is a testament to our steadfast commitment to the country's energy sector. It is a commitment to a secure and prosperous future for the Dominican Republic, underscoring our unwavering presence.

The signing ceremony was graced by key figures in the energy sector, including Andrés Gluski, the Global President and CEO of AES Corporation; Edwin De Los Santos, the President of AES Dominicana; Manuel Estrella, the President of Estrella; and Felix García, the President of Grupo Linda, who served as delegates for the new collaborators, symbolizing the unity and shared vision of all parties involved.

The AES Dominicana group's integration of ENANDON and API Popular marks not an end, but the commencement of a new and promising chapter in its continuing saga of success.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1866872489424384093

AES Panamá Complete Transformation…

Panama is home to one of the world's most significant maritime routes, with the Panama Canal serving as crucial point that necessitates a supply of electricity for its operation However, the unfortunate issue with Panama's electricity system is that it relies almost entirely on hydroelectric power. Water this valuable resource, can unfortunately be more expensive fuel, presenting not a question of cost but also of scarcity, further worsened by the severe drought the region. This situation poses serious challenges for the country as the reliability of the supply is vital to maintaining the operation of the canal and, consequently, the Panamanian economy.

On the other hand, over 7,000 miles away, vessels transporting containers through Egypt'suez Canal are either awaiting naval escorts or completely avoiding the passage, opting instead for a significantly longer voyage around South Africa. Ship operators are concerned that their crews may be endangered during journeys the Red Sea due to or drone attacks from a Yemen-based rebel group.

The issues affecting the Suez Canal are geopolitical, while those impacting Panama are climate-related; however, both situations are disrupting global trade. Cargo through Suez and Panama canals have decreased by more than a third. So, hundreds of vessels have rerouted to longer paths, leading to delivery delays, increased transportation costs, and economic damage to local communities.

It is easy to conclude: Two Canals, Two Major Problems — Global Shipping Mess.

The drought in Panama has in over 50 ships waiting to cross the Panama Canal on recent day, including tank transporting propane and cargo ships with food This prolonged drought has compelled the canal's operator to reduce number of, leading to increased waiting. Consequently, the tolls that ships are required pay have risen to approximately eight times their normal rates.

AES has been operational in Panama since 1999, following its successful acquisition of international tenders for the concessions of the Bayano La Estrella and Los V hydroelectric power plants. In 2018, leveraging its extensive experience in natural gas from the Dominican Republic, AES initiated the construction of the Colón power plant. This facility is significant as it represents the first Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)-fired power plant in the region, with a generation capacity of 381 MW. The plant began operations in 2019, thereby establishing the inaugural hub for LNG in Panama and Central America, which features a 180,000 m³ storage tank and a reception terminal for maritime vessels.

Panama has established a 20-year fuel supply contract at a stable and competitive market price through the Generadora Gatun project, a natural gas-fired power generation initiative that commenced construction in March of this year. This contract is projected to yield a 20% reduction in costs compared to current market prices, utilizing natural gas sourced from the United States, the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas, alongside Qatar, thereby facilitating the provision of the most favorable pricing.

When considering the financial benefits of this new investment in conjunction with the savings generated by AES Colón, a 381 MW natural gas facility inaugurated in 2018, the total economic advantage for the country exceeds US$150 million annually when compared to electricity generation reliant on fuel oil and liquefied natural gas at prevailing market rates, amounting to approximately US$3 billion over a 20-year period. Furthermore, both investments are anticipated to significantly mitigate CO2 emissions, collectively reducing them by over 2.2 billion tonnes per year, as natural gas is recognized as a considerably cleaner energy source.

Today…

Houthi Attacks Turn Back the Clock for Shipping as Costs Pile Up

“The transport route around the southern tip of Africa was once little used — but freighters are now forced to take it and are charging higher rates.

The New York Times by Peteravis and Liz Alderman Peter Eavis reported from New York, while Liz Alderman reported from Piraeus, Greece.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/business/houthi-red-sea-attacks-shipping-lanes-africa.html

Germán & Co 12/9/24 Germán & Co 12/9/24

The No Man's Land in the Battle for Global Gas Resources…

"Whoever controls Syria holds significant power across the Middle East. This country is more than just a spot on the map; it serves as a crucial gateway to Asia, often referred to as "the key to the House of Russia," a term famously coined by Empress Catherine the Great. But the influence of Syria extends further—it also connects to China via the historic Silk Road, which opens the door for potential global dominance. Especially now, as we enter what many are calling the Age of Gas, the stakes have never been higher."

“In the shadows of Al-sassad fall, the battle for global gas resources is a dynamic and intricate saga. As the tides of economics and politics ebb and flow, alliances are forged and dissolved, reflecting the ever-shifting landscape of current events…

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

"Whoever controls Syria holds significant power across the Middle East. This country is more than just a spot on the map; it serves as a crucial gateway to Asia, often referred to as "the key to the House of Russia," a term famously coined by Empress Catherine the Great. But the influence of Syria extends further—it also connects to China via the historic Silk Road, which opens the door for potential global dominance. Especially now, as we enter what many are calling the Age of Gas, the stakes have never been higher."

“In the shadows of Al-sassad fall, the battle for global gas resources is a dynamic and intricate saga. As the tides of economics and politics ebb and flow, alliances are forged and dissolved, reflecting the ever-shifting landscape of current events…

Workart by Germán & Co is a creative collaboration known for their unique and innovative pieces.

“Assad’s fall in Syria is a ‘fundamental act of justice,’ but also ‘a moment of risk,’ Biden says

The Mediterranean Sea basin is acknowledged as one of the world's largest natural gas reservoirs, with a considerable amount of these reserves located within Syrian territory. Syria plays a pivotal role in transporting gas to Europe. Traditionally, the Syrian government was led by Bashar al-Assad, the president who has recently been deposed, haft capitalized on its strategic position to negotiate advantageous terms for its gas reserves. Nevertheless, Syria has been progressively viewed as an unreliable partner by countries in need of energy resources, which are crucial for their faltering economies and are subject to continuous competition with Russia and China.

Over the past ten years, the Levantine Mediterranean Basin, especially Syria, has become increasingly significant in the oil and gas transport industry. Notably, natural gas now makes up about 25% of the world's energy consumption, and it is projected to have become the main substitute for oil since 2020. In light of this, Europe's heavy reliance on Russian natural gas has highlighted the urgent need for Western countries to find alternative sources and transportation pathways for their gas supplies.

In light of recent developments, the contest for dominance in the region has intensified significantly over the past five years. To elucidate this situation, it is pertinent to highlight certain key factors related to the escalating rivalry among multinational corporations and political entities concerning the gas sector. This discussion will specifically address the strategic significance of Syria as a conduit for gas transportation.

The Islamic Gas Pipeline…

In 2011, Syria entered into an agreement with Iran and Iraq to construct the 'Islamic Gas Pipeline,' also referred to as the 'Friendship Pipeline.' The proposed infrastructure is designed to originate from the South Pars gas field in Iran, traversing through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon before reaching the Mediterranean Sea. In the subsequent phase of the initiative, the pipeline is intended to extend beneath the Mediterranean to Greece, facilitating distribution to Europe. This new pipeline is projected to have a capacity of 110 million cubic meters of gas per day, positioning it as the largest pipeline in the Middle East, while also linking the Iraqi oil fields of Akkas and Kirkuk. Construction was anticipated to start between 2013 and 2014; however, the outbreak of civil war in Syria has resulted in the project's indefinite postponement due to the ongoing conflict and the recent fall of Al-Assad.

The South Pars gas field, recognized as the largest globally, spans approximately 9,700 square kilometers and is jointly owned by Iran and Qatar in the Gulf region. Based on the project data and information from Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC), a branch of the National Iranian Oil Company, the field possesses 14 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves. This positions it as twelve times the size of Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field, which British Petroleum (heading the Shah Deniz consortium) estimates contains 1.2 trillion cubic meters of gas. But a key fact about this potential pipeline is that its route would bypass none other than Turkey, Washington's staunch ally.

Russia is deeply involved in Syrian-Iranian projects, and its influence there is expected to complement its presence in the European gas market, rather than compete with it. Russia's gas fields are of crucial importance to Western Europe and carry significant political weight. The proposed Syrian-Iranian gas pipeline would bolster Russia's position in its energy rivalry with the West. Furthermore, should the pipeline be constructed, it is anticipated to receive support from the Russian naval base at Tartus, which is Moscow's last remaining naval base from the Cold War era in the region, alongside protection from allied states in the area.

The financing required for the construction of the Islamic gas pipeline is expected to surpass ten billion dollars. Considering the financial constraints of Middle Eastern economies, it is likely that Russia or China will provide the necessary funding for the project.

The Nabucco Project

In the mid-1990s, global fuel strategists began to acknowledge the increasing importance of natural gas as a viable alternative to oil, which was perceived as potentially limited in availability. This acknowledgment prompted the White House, with the backing of the European Union, to launch the Nabucco project, positioning it as a competitor to existing Russian initiatives. The Nabucco pipeline was designed to transport natural gas to Europe, originating in Central Asia near the Black Sea, specifically in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. The pipeline was intended to traverse Turkey, where existing storage infrastructure was available, and continue through Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary, ultimately reaching Austria. From Austria, the pipeline was planned to extend to the Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia, and Italy.

The initial consortium of capital associated with the Nabucco pipeline comprised several companies, including the German firm RWE, the Hungarian company MOL, the Turkish entity Botas, the Bulgarian Energy Company Holding, and the Romanian firm Transgaz. However, several years subsequent to its initial design, the pipeline has yet to progress beyond the planning stage. In 2012, the Hungarian company MOL withdrew from the Nabucco consortium. Recently, another significant partner and shareholder, the German consortium RWE, also exited the group.

Initially, the objective of this project was to facilitate the transportation of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Europe. However, Turkmenistan has commenced the construction of two gas pipelines directed towards Iran and China, and in 2013, it initiated a third pipeline to China. Consequently, Turkmenistan no longer possesses surplus gas resources available for the European Union. Furthermore, assessments conducted by various experts indicate that Azerbaijan lacks the necessary gas volumes to adequately supply the Nabucco gas pipeline. In light of these circumstances, the Azerbaijani government has opted to prioritize the ongoing Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline project, which is designed to transport gas to Italy via Turkey, Albania, and Greece, with operations expected to commence in 2017-2018.

The Nabucco pipeline project was intended to incorporate Iranian natural gas, with the United States aiming to integrate its reserves by linking them to the Erzurum storage facility in Turkey. Additionally, the project included gas supplies from the eastern Mediterranean region, specifically from Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. Nabucco was designed to transport natural gas over a distance of 3,900 kilometers through Turkish territory, with the objective of delivering 31 billion cubic meters of gas annually to European markets from the Middle East and the Caspian basin. The urgency exhibited by the NATO-US-France coalition to eliminate obstacles to their gas supply interests in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, stems from the necessity to ensure stability and garner local support for the infrastructure and investments essential to the gas industry.

South Stream y North Stream

Russian energy projects had been more fortunate until the “blast” on September 26, 2022. On the one hand, North Stream, which directly connects Russia with Germany through the Baltic Sea, recently began its works. The first branch line began construction in April 2010, was completed in June 2011 and inaugurated on November 8, 2011 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Construction of the second branch commenced in May 2011, and it started operations in 2012, continuing through to September 2022.

Nord Stream's shareholders are "Gazprom" with a 51% stake, the German company Wintershall and EON Ruhgas, as well as the Dutch and French Gasunie GDF SUEZ.

Conversely, the South Stream, Russia's second gas project, originates in Russian gas fields and traverses the Black Sea. It branches through Greece and southern Italy, and another branch passes through Hungary and Austria, culminating in Bulgaria.

South Stream AG, a Gazprom and Eni (Italy) joint venture, constructs and operates the pipeline. Work is progressing; notably, in June of this year, Gazprom and the Austrian energy consortium OMV established South Stream Austria GmbH to build the Austrian segment of the pipeline. This occurred despite Bulgaria, another project member state, suspending South Stream construction early in June at the European Commission's behest, which alleged European regulatory violations. The inaugural supply of Russian gas to Austria via this pipeline is anticipated for 2016.

Journalist and professor Imad Fawzi Shueibi posits that the primary threat to Nabucco may be Russia's strategy to undermine it by securing more favorable contracts for Gazprom with North Stream and South Stream. This could negate the efforts of the United States and Europe, reduce their influence, and unsettle their energy strategies in Iran and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, Gazprom might emerge as a key investor or operator in new gas fields in Syria and Lebanon.

In the context of Turkey, the suspension of the Nabucco project, which involved the country, has intensified its aspirations to engage in the ongoing competition for gas resources. Consequently, Turkey has aligned itself with the interests of Western imperialist nations that aim to obstruct the implementation of multinational projects spearheaded by Russia, specifically the South and North Stream initiatives, without significant involvement. This alignment is primarily motivated by the Turkish government's, under President Erdogan, dependence on the strategic objectives of Washington and NATO, as there is an urgent necessity for Nabucco to facilitate the storage, marketing, and transportation of up to 40 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

Qatar-Turkey-Syria gas pipeline

In 2009, the former Emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani, who abdicated in 2013 in favor of his son, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, engaged in discussions with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan to establish a new pipeline intended to transport Qatari natural gas to Turkey through Syria. Qatar possesses the third-largest natural gas reserves globally and is recognized as the leading producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, complications arose due to President Bashar al-Assad's initial refusal to endorse the project, which was later followed by Syria's agreement to participate in the construction of the Islamic Gas Pipeline. This new corridor was proposed as an alternative for European nations seeking to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, alongside one of the branches of the also suspended Nabucco pipeline project.

Finally, "Bill Gates: The Optimist’s Dilemma" may be a significant read. The philanthropist, who has been combating global diseases for 25 years, believes the world is at a perilous tipping point. This book offers insights for a deeper comprehension of our world, as discussed in the article from The New Statesman in this edition. It is essential to acknowledge that the current tumultuous state of the world can be traced back to the initial detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on November 17, 2019, in Wuhan, China. This virus, which is a relatively simple entity composed of proteins and nucleic acids, is capable of replication solely within specific living cells by commandeering their metabolic mechanisms.

Lastly, the note referenced in this post is derived from the Spanish article titled "Syria and the Gas," authored by Alejandra Loucau over five years ago, which remains highly relevant in contemporary discussions.

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1866094148706521202

***Thank you for your kind contributions…***

**Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…**

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Today…

Bill Gates: the Optimist’s Dilemma

The philanthropist has been fighting global disease for 25 years. He believes the world is at a dangerous tipping point.

The New Statement by Jason Cowley

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2024/11/bill-gates-the-optimists-dilemma

Germán & Co 12/8/24 Germán & Co 12/8/24

The pathway of fuel serves as a vital commodity in the realm of political exchange.

To fully grasp the Syrian conflict, it is essential to examine the distribution of hydrocarbons in the Middle East and analyze regional initiatives that aim to transport oil and gas from the Persian Gulf to Europe.

WorkArt by Germán & Co

To fully grasp the Syrian conflict, it is essential to examine the distribution of hydrocarbons in the Middle East and analyze regional initiatives that aim to transport oil and gas from the Persian Gulf to Europe.

How could it be that President Bashar al-Assad's downfall seems so effortless, even with the steadfast backing of Russia and Iran throughout history?

Ah, the age-old conundrum rears its head again: the battle between the avid readers and those who struggle with the written word!

According to the latest reports from Al Jazeera, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad collapsed for the following reasons: Syria's economy was in decline, largely sustained by the illegal trade of the psychoactive drug Captagon. Al-Assad's popularity plummeted as survival became increasingly difficult for the populace, including his soldiers, who largely refused to fight for him. Reports indicated that soldiers and police officers were deserting their posts, surrendering their weapons, and fleeing ahead of the opposition's advance. The al-Assad regime's military had been weak for years, depending on Russian and Iranian support. However, with Russia entangled in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah weakened by Israeli strikes, they were unable to support the struggling Syrian army. Al-Assad is reported to have fled the country on a plane to Russia, marking the end of over 53 years of his family's authoritarian rule in Syria. His departure leaves a country in ruins and millions of Syrians wondering what’s next.

If I understand correctly, according to Al Jazeera and other world news sources, Russia and Iran lack the power to support the al-Assad regime.

In a contrary sense, this week President Vladimir Putin warned Europe to be very careful with the latest armaments provided to Ukraine.

A crucial element to understanding this case is the friendship between Turkey's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia's President, Vladimir Putin. The article "A Swedish Nightmare," published by this blog on February 23, examines the consequences of a strategic maneuver by President Putin. This move involved proposing a natural gas hub in Turkey, leading to widespread debates about Turkey's impact on Sweden's historically neutral position on joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Clearly, under Putin's guidance, Russia was prepared to take substantial steps to hinder Sweden's accession to NATO.

The most significant factors determining a country's geopolitical power are multifaceted, with money playing a crucial role. The influence of natural gas in global energy markets is significant, and the decisions made by leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have substantial implications for the energy sector. Turkey's strategic role as a natural gas conduit between Asia and Europe has the potential to significantly impact regional economies.

The controversy surrounding Turkey's veto of Sweden's NATO membership application has been analyzed from various perspectives, including historical, political, and gender-related aspects, as well as through unfounded and misogynistic criticisms.

Former Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde encountered criticism based on her gender, which was allegedly an obstacle in negotiations with a traditionally male-dominated state.

Moreover, Sweden's attempt to present a treaty from 1739 to Turkey, intended to symbolize mutual security, proved largely ineffective. This act recalls historical events, such as King Charles XII of Sweden's refuge in an Ottoman castle after a devastating defeat by Russia. Erdoğan gave Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson an unexpected letter from a Swedish envoy, acknowledging the Ottomans' financial aid and their mediating role with Russia, underscoring the importance of learning from history to avoid repeating past mistakes.

Natural gas has become a central factor in political negotiations, as evidenced by a Politico EU article. In an interview with CNN, Erdoğan emphasized his "special relationship" with Putin, stating that "Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible," and criticized the West for its unbalanced approach.

The second question emerges from the strong relationship between Turkey's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and President Vladimir Putin; this was not addressed, despite the significant geopolitical importance that Syria represents for Russia.

The third dimension pertains to the Russian failure during the invasions of Afghanistan. In fact, Syria may signify a potential new military disaster for Russia if there are no underlying factors obscured in this operation.

The Kremlin's stance on Syria's deterioration exposes Russia's vulnerabilities, especially when considering a ceasefire with Ukraine. Additionally, what could be the consequences for influential Iran?

The fifth and perhaps most crucial point is that the future of Syria is shrouded in mystery. It could linger in this state of uncertainty until a new chapter unfolds, echoing the tumultuous history of Afghanistan and its entanglement with Al-Qaeda.

The sole certainty is that we are currently experiencing an uncontrollable global conflict that directly impacts fuel supply routes. Additionally, it is important to consider other critical situations, such as the precarious circumstances in South Korea. Furthermore, the abrupt downfall of the al-Assad regime should not be overlooked.

With the current geopolitical turmoil, Europe is now in a much better position than last week concerning Ukraine's future.

Fingers crossed that this political beast, as shrewd and charismatic as Turkey's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, steers clear of any risky maneuvers... Let's hope it's not another Trojan horse.

Today, Modern Ghana published an article titled "The Geostrategic Importance of Syria: Geography, Power, and Global Influence," which is available in this edition for reading.

Wishing you a delightful night, a cheerful Monday, and sending warm wishes to each and every one of you!

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1865924521334812777

Today…

The Geostrategic Importance of Syria: Geography, Power, and Global Influence…

By Syed Raiyan Amir

https://www.modernghana.com/news/1363935/the-geostrategic-importance-of-syria-geography.html

Germán & Co 11/24/24 Germán & Co 11/24/24

Cold War Echoes or a Foreboding Prelude to a Potential New Atomic Catastrophe?

Strong convictions often serve as a mere pretext in the puersuit of vital energy resources that fuel conflict.

Hello, lovely folks, and a splendid Sunday to each of you!

In the realm of work, there’s an unspoken agreement that we must always wear a mask of “I’m fine.” What a magnificent charade! We are, after all, delicate beings navigating the unpredictable waves of existence. Honesty is crucial for truly understanding ourselves and our circumstances. So, if you were to ask how I’m doing, I’d admit that things could be better. And there’s absolutely no shame in that.

As a proud descendant of Italian Ashkenazi Jews, I’ve always held the teachings of the Kabbalah in high regard. Yet, as the sands of time slip through my fingers, I find myself drifting away from those beliefs for reasons that could be deemed either wise or foolish. When life throws me curveballs, I often ponder why I’ve let go of those guiding lights.

This blog has offered some sharp insights, and while it may stroke my ego, it doesn’t quite soothe my spirit. Still, the weight of responsibility fuels my determination to keep moving forward.

Today, my mind meandered to the enchanting land of Argentina—a place bursting with beauty, grappling with relentless inflation, and rich in cultural lore. From Diego to Evita, Palito Ortega to Sandro the Gypsy, Gardel to Leonardo Favio, Julio Cortázar to the legendary Don José Luis Borges, and the icons of Messi, Monzón, Sabatini, Vilas, and Le Parc, along with our beloved Malbecs—Argentina is a treasure trove of splendor, even if its economy is as fragile as a soap bubble in a storm.

In this vibrant Argentina, a libertarian figure has emerged—a character seen by some as a psychedelic dream and by others as a polarizing force. He’s locked in an epic battle with the “formidable” Peronist and Kirchnerist unions, a clash that feels almost mythical. Meanwhile, across the ocean in Europe, this libertarian is taking on a Spanish social democrat, a disciple of figures like Margaret Albright, George Soros, and the U.S. Democratic Party, who is steering Spain toward a precarious destiny. It seems the libertarians are slowly but surely making their mark in the land of the Albiceleste.

Now, let’s rewind the clock over fifty years to Mendoza, Argentina, a city nestled by Chile, where three dapper Argentine gentlemen, their shoes gleaming and hair impeccably styled, are spinning fanciful tales on a street corner. A stunningly beautiful pregnant woman strolls by, her radiant glow unmistakable. The boldest of the men can’t help but exclaim, “What a beautiful belly you have!” In keeping with Argentine idiosyncrasy, one might anticipate she would dismiss the remark and proceed, but to everyone's astonishment...

To the astonishment of all, the glowing woman turns to face the audacious admirer who thought he had triumphed at that moment... and she quips, “So, you fancy my belly?” Ecstatic, the admirer replies, “Yes, yes, yes!” She retorts, “Well, jot down my husband’s number, and he can give you one just like it.”

Wishing you all the very best and, above all, good health...

Image by Germán & Co

Strong convictions often serve as a mere pretext in the puersuit of vital energy resources that fuel conflict.

Hello, lovely folks, and a splendid Sunday to each of you!

This blog has offered some sharp insights, and while it may stroke my ego, it doesn’t quite soothe my spirit. Still, the weight of responsibility fuels my determination to keep moving forward.

Wishing you all the very best and, above all, good health...

The image titled "Hunger in Gaza" is copyrighted by Germán & Co and is sourced from Shutterstock.

The phrase “lost in translation” could imply a discrepancy in interpreting reality.

A pertinent example is the “temporary” ceasefire agreement established between Israel and Hezbollah…

“true freedom is not directed only toward one’s own advantage; it has inhibitions and scruples.”

Angela Merkel's memoir, "Freedom," 2024.

This agreement is characterized by its provisions’ inherent fragility. The persistent violence coincides with Israel's military actions against Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah in both Gaza and Lebanon. Additionally, the civil war in Syria has led to rebels taking over Aleppo, raising the likelihood of a wider regional conflict. Shortly after the agreement was signed, both sides began exchanging accusations vis-à-vis regarding the peace accord's violations. Ironically, as thousands of peoples displaced by the conflict try to return to their former homes. A photograph released hours after agreement shows unexplained devastation, without water, food, healthcare, electricity, or hope. Not, doubt, Gaza is engulfed in despair, a harsh reality that darkens its skyline, where neon signs of peace feel like a distant dream.

Specific individuals and organizations are claiming credit for this “partial “ success…

But, the complexities inherent in communication precipitate misunderstandings, particularly within the increasingly intricate and challenging global landscape marked by misinformation. The concept of fact is indeed complex; how can one find out truth in a society that does not encourage contemplation? In contemporary times, obtaining solitude for reflection and deep thought has become increasingly complicated because individuals are perpetually distracted by numerous incessant notifications.

In a moment of profound contemplation, a gentleman sits in a sophisticated hotel bar in Tokyo, reflecting on the complexities associated with a midlife crisis. While sipping his drink, he faces the harsh reality of Alzheimer's—a cruel thief that strips men of their vitality and clarity in life's autumn—pondering over his beverage. This scene encapsulates the essence of the character portrayed in Sofia Coppola’s 2003 film “Lost in Translation,” a poignant exploration of life’s intricacies, set against the backdrop of Suntory whisky. As he traverses an unfamiliar city’s neon-lit streets, he grapples with feelings of isolation and the pursuit of meaning in an apparently elusive world. Coppola adeptly explores themes of alienation and the challenges of establishing connections in a society that seems overwhelmingly distant.

Many may question this film’s relevance to the Israel–Palestine conflict…

Indeed, forging bonds in a world that often feels strikingly disconnected. Contemporary Israeli literature highlights the critical and ethical perspectives that Israeli autobiographers adopt, which challenge—and convey a profound personal commitment to—Israel’s collective identity. In this context, the concept of “the bad reader,” proposed by Amos Oz in his work “A Tale of Love and Darkness,” emerges. The “bad reader” fixates on the author’s personal life instead of engaging with the narrative and seeks to uncover “the story behind the story.” For instance, when Dostoevsky presents a character committing robbery and murder against an older woman, the lousy reader is inclined to assume that Dostoevsky himself must have engaged in such actions.

Upon receiving the urgent news regarding the “temporary” ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, we were compelled the trigger to respond.

There are a few avenues that might pave the way to this accord, such as the following: The chatter surrounding Elon Musk's rendezvous with Iranian dignitaries right after President Donald Trump secured his second term has been quite the hot topic. Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court has thrown a curveball by issuing an arrest warrant for the Prime Minister of Israel. Additionally, the notable imagery of Hezbollah launching a missile right before a significant agreement cannot be overlooked. One might even draw comparisons to the severe Russian winter during the Nazi invasion; nevertheless, in this context, the implications resonate with Netanyahu against the backdrop of an arid and adverse desert landscape, or perhaps they merely reflect the ongoing political conflicts within Israel. Noteworthily, this situation has been developing for a prolonged period. Furthermore, considering the Biden administration’s possible actions in this complex scenario is essential. The bad reader arrived at only this interpretation.

Unfortunately, the storyline takes an unexpected turn, leading us to yet another surprising twist in the plot. A considerable consensus among contemporary Israeli historians posits that the aspiration for peaceful coexistence between Jews and Palestinians was irrevocably disrupted during the Six-Day War, which occurred from June 5 to June 10, 1967. Although the prospects for a stable peace were already minimal, they became increasingly unattainable in the aftermath of the devastating and “mad” Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The wounds inflicted by these events are so profound that they remain impervious to even the relentless progression of Alzheimer's disease.

The story behind the story…

Ultimately, regardless of the reader's level of understanding or the darkness of the subject, the perplexing Hamas attack on October 7, continues to present a significant “enigma”. Hamas was well aware that any retaliation would be severe. Within this context, Benjamin Netanyahu might be granted some leniency, as the response would likely have been decisive regardless of who was at the helm of Israel at the time. This so-called "temporary" truce is destined to be yet another illusion for both countries, each bearing the weight of a tumultuous past. Their struggles have been compounded by the meddling of outsiders, a legacy that dates back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement from 1916.

Strong convictions and the pursuit of vital energy resources propel the conflict.

Eurasia: A tapestry woven with the threads of oil, gas, and conflict...

The Yalta Conference, which convened from February 4 to 11, 1945, served as a pivotal precursor to the Cold War. The conference, occurring during World War II, brought together a significant assembly of important figures, those being the leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union: President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Prime Minister Winston Churchill and General Secretary Joseph Stalin, respectively. Furthermore, although behind the scenes, China played a notable role in the discussions. The conference was held in Yalta, Crimea, then part of the Soviet Union. China's influence is clear in the agreements reached, particularly in the document ‘Yalta and the Far Eastern Agreement’, by the esteemed scholar Fu Binchang, who served as the last ambassador of General Chiang Kai-shek to Soviet Russia from 1943 to 1949. Significantly, the case also involved Mr. Alger Hiss, an American official who was implicated in espionage activities for the Soviet Union but was never condemned.

The conference was defined by a singular objective: to formulate a comprehensive plan for peace in the aftermath of World War II, aiming to establish a framework for collective security and promote the self-determination of liberated European nations.

Although discussions were primarily focused on the reconstruction of countries affected by the war, the subsequent emergence of the Cold War and the resulting division of the continent rendered the conference a topic of significant debate and controversy in subsequent years: The Cold War era was characterised by heightened global tensions, meticulously orchestrated propaganda campaigns, a pervasive culture of espionage and an overarching atmosphere of fear, contributing to a disheartening and profoundly ambiguous geopolitical landscape.

In its plan for peace, The Yalta Agreement aimed to safeguard European nations from the traumatic aggression associated with German nationalism, as articulated in Nazi ideology. Ironically, Germany, once perceived as a formidable threat by many world leaders, but the "mental wall" that divides East Germany continues to exist 35 years after the GDR collapsed is now experiencing unprecedented weakness and grappling with a profound identity crisis, causing the nation to face significant socioeconomic and political challenges that are proving exceedingly difficult to resolve.

Furthermore, the conference underscored the necessity of curbing the global proliferation of communism. It is essential to recognise that communism encompasses more than merely philosophical concepts of societal models as regrettably illustrated by historical evidence.

The political ideology under examination is characterised by a pervasive atmosphere of animosity and self-interest aimed at consolidating power by manipulating the particular country’s economy and society. At its essence, the State is regarded as the ultimate authority, and the regime of Nicolae Ceaușescu, which adhered to pro-Soviet ideologies in Romania from 1965 to 1989 provides a salient example of this phenomenon. Indeed, this period serves as a poignant illustration of the ramifications of communist governance, as evidenced by the concentration of wealth in the hands of communist dictators while their general populaces endured significant deprivation and hunger.

Four significant events characterised the Cold War period—the first of these being the Cuban Missile Crisis. In October 1962, after the deployment of nuclear-armed Soviet missiles in Cuba, located only 90 miles from the U.S. mainland, leaders from the United States and the Soviet Union participated in a tense 13-day political and military standoff.

The second significant event was the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989—an event that served as a prominent symbol of the dissolution of the Soviet Union and marked the conclusion of the Cold War.

The third phase, marked by the rise of a new wave of conflict in the early 1980s and culminating with the rise of Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev in the late 1980s, is a critical juncture for understanding modern global dynamics. This period led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in late 1991, signaling the end of the Cold War. The legacy of the Cold War continues to influence geopolitical developments, highlighting the Soviet Union's determination to avoid any future military inferiority.

At long last, thirty-five years after the iconic Berlin Wall crumbled, we find ourselves reflecting on the dreams of 1989—visions of a world brimming with democracy and freedom that, sadly, have not come to fruition. Instead of the anticipated progress, the Western world has seen a decline in nearly every facet of social justice, morphing into a bipolar entity amidst a chaotic multipolar landscape fueled by competing aspirations.

——————————————————————

The latest communication from the Kremlin, articulated by Mr. Dmitry Peskov, the informed and educated press secretary to President Vladimir Putin—who possesses considerable ties to the elected President Donald Trump—indicates that the philosophical ideas of Dostoevsky and the nationalistic sentiments linked to the Romanov dynasty continue to influence Putin's strategic decision-making. This statement emphasizes Russia's unwavering commitment to address and rectify any potential military deficiencies to avert their reemergence.

Conversely, "The New Statesman," a British publication, depicted the current scenario as critical in its latest digital issue: The assertive declarations from Moscow are understandably causing alarm. Serious analysts harbor concerns that Russia may intensify the situation, potentially leading the world to unintentionally slide into a broad conflict, as has happened before in the age of widespread warfare. This apprehension is intensified by the conduct of numerous individuals on social media from both the far right and left. For instance, Donald Trump Jr. has claimed that the "military-industrial complex appears eager to initiate World War III before my father can broker peace and save lives."

In the article titled "As Long as It Takes: Biden Adds to Talk of a New Cold War," published on July 13, 2023, David E. Sanger explores the complexities of today's global situation. Meanwhile, there are arguments that comparing the current period to the Cold War is an oversimplification. President Biden and his national security team have repeatedly emphasized that these comparisons fail to capture the nuanced reality of the contemporary geopolitical landscape.

The disparities between the two periods are substantial, particularly in terms of technological and economic interdependence between the United States and China. Additionally, Biden's advisors maintain that Russia cannot be equated with the Soviet Union, as its conventional military strength has significantly weakened in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday that President Biden's security advisors had not foreseen Russia's initiation of an experimental hypersonic ballistic missile launch towards Ukraine. This move was a reaction to Ukraine's authorization to target Russian territory with long-range missiles provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. Putin stressed his intention to respond to any additional escalation in the conflict.

“Conflicts related to religious issues often arise from deep-seated beliefs, yet they are commonly entangled with the pursuit of vital geopolitical resources. This intricate mix of ideological commitment and strategic objectives forms the basis of many of the world's most enduring and difficult conflicts.

At the heart of the matter lies a complex tug-of-war, a fierce contest for dominance over the sprawling web of pipelines that transport natural gas throughout Eurasia. Yet, this struggle is not merely about energy; it is also steeped in religious undertones. The disintegration of the Soviet Union, which had long stifled religious expression, sparked a remarkable revival of faith across its successor states, leading to a surge in church attendance and spiritual fervor.

Fast forward to February 24, 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine thrust the intricate ties between Vladimir Putin's government and the Russian Orthodox Church into the spotlight. The Church has been a staunch ally of Putin, providing theological backing for his military endeavors and justifying his actions on both domestic and international fronts. This intertwining of politics and faith has sown discord within the broader Orthodox community, resulting in a formal rift with the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and heightened tensions with the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople. But what is the underlying significance of religion in Putin's regime?

A recent survey by the Pew Forum revealed that a staggering 71% of Russians identify as Orthodox, alongside 78% of Ukrainians, 73% of Belarusians, and 92% of Moldovans. The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), now brimming with confidence, positions itself as the custodian of Russian national identity, proclaiming Moscow as the 'third Rome' with authority over Orthodox communities in these nations and beyond. Domestically, Putin has enacted laws targeting 'non-traditional' religious groups, imposing fines, detentions, and criminal charges.

Since the election of Patriarch Kirill in 2009, the ROC has cozied up to the Kremlin, claiming jurisdiction over vast swathes of former Soviet territory. The Church's Holy Synod includes bishops from Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, all under its expansive umbrella. Central to this alliance is the doctrine of Russkiy Mir, or 'Russian world'—a concept that envisions Russia as a savior of Christian civilization, tasked with rescuing it from the perceived moral decay of the West. This ideology promotes the spread of Russian language, culture, and values, aiming to reassert influence over former Soviet states and beyond. In 2007, Putin established the Russkiy Mir Foundation, which actively propagates this vision globally, working hand in hand with the ROC.

Experts suggest that the conflict in Ukraine carries a religious dimension, with Putin's ambition to seize Kyiv framed as a 'spiritual quest.' In a lengthy article published in July 2021, titled *'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, Putin articulated his vision of a Greater Russia, asserting that Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are essentially one people, united by their shared baptismal heritage in Kyiv dating back to Prince Volodymir's conversion in 988. This narrative positions Russia's adversaries in the West as historical foes, accusing them of 'Polonising and Latinising' Russian lands and undermining Orthodoxy. Putin dismisses the emergence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church as a threat, conveniently ignoring the Ukrainian perspective. For him, the notion of Ukrainian identity or statehood lacks historical legitimacy and serves merely as a geopolitical weapon aimed at weakening Russia. He characterizes the current Ukrainian leadership as 'radicals and neo-Nazis,' making it clear that his ultimate goal is to forge a singular, expansive nation—a triune entity.

Gas conflicts between Ukraine and Russia served as a precursor to the war, with disputes over energy supplies and prices revealing deeper geopolitical tensions.

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia extends beyond the battlefield to the geopolitical realm of natural gas. Disputes over this energy source at the beginning of the century foreshadowed the current war.

For some analysts have examined Ukraine's 'gas relations' with Russia from Ukraine's viewpoint, especially since Ukraine is a crucial transit route for Russian gas to Europe. Russia continues to pay Ukraine for this transit, amounting to approximately 800 million dollars last year. This payment is significant, as there are forces within Ukraine that have long desired to eliminate the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which ultimately were destroyed in an act of terrorism.

To gain insight into the role played by gas in Ukrainian society the Institute for History looked at two major gas conflicts from 2006 and 2009. During these crises, Russia showed it was prepared to use the gas supply as a political weapon to destabilise Ukraine and exert pressure.

And of course, LNG represents a lifeline for President Putin, Liquefied LNG has emerged as a crucial economic asset for Russia amidst the geopolitical tensions following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While the European Union significantly reduced its imports of piped gas from Gazprom, Russian LNG exports to Europe experienced a notable increase of approximately 38 percent in 2023 compared to the pre-war year of 2021, with the EU importing around 22 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian LNG. Notably, Russia has become the second-largest supplier of LNG to Europe, following the United States.

It is important to highlight that Gazprom is not the primary entity involved in these LNG exports; rather, Novatek, Russia's second-largest natural gas producer, plays a pivotal role. In 2022, Novatek exported over 76 percent of the LNG produced by its Yamal LNG project to European markets. Currently, more than 50 percent of Russia's LNG exports are directed towards Europe, a significant increase from 39 percent in 2021.

Despite the substantial volume of LNG exports, these activities do not constitute a major source of budgetary revenue for Russia, as Novatek's LNG production and exports benefit from a twelve-year exemption from mineral extraction taxes and export duties. Nonetheless, the revenue generated from these exports, estimated at up to 10 billion euros annually, provides financial support for the Russian government, potentially facilitating the ongoing military operations in Ukraine. In response to this situation, the Russian government has increased the profit tax on Novatek from 20 percent to 32 percent for the period of 2023 to 2025. Furthermore, the draft budget for 2024 suggests the possibility of imposing one-time payments on oil and gas companies, including Novatek.

Currently, the European Union is not contemplating sanctions against Russian LNG, which indicates that the revenue stream is likely to persist without interruption into 2024. Additionally, Novatek has continued to advance its significant Arctic LNG-2 (ALNG-2) project, despite initial challenges in accessing essential Western technology due to sanctions. Although Western firms such as Linde, Technip, and Baker Hughes withdrew from the project following the invasion, Novatek has managed to secure previously contracted equipment or identify alternative suppliers from China. However, the imposition of comprehensive U.S. sanctions against the ALNG-2 project in November 2023 has effectively stalled its progress, thereby undermining Russia's ambitions to expand its LNG exports in the forthcoming years and demonstrating the impact of targeted sanctions on specific oil and gas initiatives.

The anticipated surge in LNG prices has not occurred, despite conflicts impacting major maritime and land routes for fossil fuel transport?

The G-7's oil-price cap is proving to be a paper tiger. Since its introduction in September 2022, the cap on Russian oil prices has been little more than a suggestion, as Russia continues to sell its oil to China through the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline at prices that soar well above the $60-per-barrel threshold. The Russian Finance Ministry has even reported that Urals crude shipped from Black and Baltic Sea ports is also exceeding this limit. As of March 2024, Russia remains unfazed, exporting crude oil at prices that laugh in the face of the cap.

When the G-7 rolled out this price cap, they underestimated the complexity of monitoring the myriad of shipping, trading, and insurance transactions that Russian oil exporters engage in, especially those that fall outside their jurisdiction. The U.S. Treasury Department had hoped that countries not participating in the cap would seek the best deals, using the cap as leverage in negotiations with Russia. However, that dream quickly evaporated. As market prices climbed, Russia pivoted to traders, shippers, and insurers operating beyond the G-7's reach, effectively sidestepping the cap with ease.

The current landscape raises serious doubts about the G-7's ability to enforce this oil-price cap. To even begin to make a dent, they would need to significantly ramp up their sanctions enforcement capabilities, adding hundreds of personnel to monitor the vast web of transactions tied to Russian crude exports. Without these crucial staffing increases and legal actions against those flouting the cap, enforcement remains a distant fantasy. The G-7 faces a daunting challenge in tackling Russia’s elusive “shadow tanker fleet” and the myriad shell companies that operate outside their regulatory grasp. Ironically, it seems that the EU's oil embargo, rather than the price cap, has been the real thorn in Russia's side when it comes to oil exports.

Today…

EU blows hot and cold over Trump

Imagine puffing out your chest and belly dancing at the same time. Artistically, it’s not really advisable…

Le Monde Diplomatique December 2024 editions by Benoît Bréville.

Europe’s Azerbaijan gas gambit is good news for Russia

Europe keeps striking deals with Azerbaijan, even at COP29. And while it might not be Russian gas, Moscow is still likely to benefit…

Politico article by Gabriel Gavin, dated November 29, 2024.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1863316061120086141

**Image by Germán & Co, all rights reserved.**

EU blows hot and cold over Trump

Le Monde Diplomatique December 2024 editions by Benoît Bréville.

Imagine puffing out your chest and belly dancing at the same time. Artistically, it’s not really advisable: the stiffness of the upper body restricts the fluidity of the hips and it ends up in ungainly moves that make you look ridiculous. Diplomatically, the result is just as painful to watch.

It won’t be long before European leaders, who have greeted Donald Trump’s election with a mix of bravado and oaths of fealty, realise this. His victory has sent shockwaves through European governments, where there’s widespread fear that he might actually implement his programme: halting arms deliveries to Ukraine, removing the American security umbrella, questioning traditional alliances, introducing aggressive protectionism… Measures that would upend the international order established after the second world war – and for which the EU is unprepared.

And yet European politicians are talking tough. ‘We have demonstrated that Europe can take its destiny into its own hands when it is united,’ said European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen confidently. Emmanuel Macron proclaimed the advent of ‘a more united, stronger and more sovereign Europe’ which possesses ‘strategic autonomy’. Fine words. It’s a pity that no one really believes them any more.

That’s partly because we’ve heard this promise so often without Europe’s subservient status changing – when the Berlin Wall came down, after the US intervention in Iraq, during the 2008-09 financial crisis, at the start of Trump’s first term. Even when an ostensible friend occupies the White House, European interests are still trampled underfoot. Remember how Joe Biden brought forward the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, forcing the French and British into a chaotic evacuation. And unknown to France, he negotiated a military pact with the UK and Australia, depriving the French of a €56bn submarine contract with the Australians. He has also shown no concern for the impact of his green industrial strategy (Inflation Reduction Act) on Europe’s economy; Canada was given far more consideration.

And it’s also because the Europeans lack the means to realise their ambitions. If Washington were to end, or even scale back, its support for Ukraine, Europe couldn’t fill the gap: it’s not that easy to escape decades of dependence on the US military-industrial complex, its patents, expertise, components, logistical infrastructure, intelligence systems and production capacity. Ukraine would then have no choice but to accept the terms of a peace negotiated by the US and Russia, likely involving territorial losses. For European leaders, who have poured so much money and political capital into a Ukrainian victory and still present it as the only viable outcome, such a humiliation would be enormous.

And so they are desperately trying to dissuade Trump from carrying out his threats by giving him what he wants. One day, von der Leyen suggests buying more American gas; the next, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock proposes boosting military budgets to reach almost 3% of GDP; and then the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, Kaja Kallas, parrots US rhetoric by calling China a ‘systemic rival’.

And forget about any semblance of unity. Europeans showed they couldn’t speak with one strong voice when the International Criminal Court indicted Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic rejected the decision. Belgium, Ireland and Spain supported it. And France and Germany just looked embarrassed, simply saying they had taken note of it. Should they bow to the US’s will or uphold international justice? Now that’s a real toughie…

Europe’s Azerbaijan gas gambit is good news for Russia

Europe keeps striking deals with Azerbaijan, even at COP29. And while it might not be Russian gas, Moscow is still likely to benefit…

Politico article by Gabriel Gavin, dated November 29, 2024.

Western countries are looking to Azerbaijan to help end their reliance on Moscow’s fossil fuels, striking a string of natural gas agreements even during this year’s COP29 climate change talks.

That’s not the only irony, though: The deals could ultimately benefit Russia.

Since Moscow launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has been looking to resource-rich Azerbaijan to help replace the Russian energy it relied on for years. And Azerbaijan has been only too happy to help. In 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed a memorandum of understanding with the South Caucasus country to expand gas exports.

Then, as host of the COP29 summit, which runs through the end of this week, the authoritarian petrostate has unabashedly promoted its natural gas resources and flaunted new commercial arrangements with several European countries. President Ilham Aliyev even hosted a signing ceremony for one such deal on the conference sidelines.

However, in order to increase its exports to Europe, Azerbaijan has dramatically upped its own fossil fuel imports from Russia. Some researchers suspect the country may be simply relabeling some imported Russian fuel and sending it along to Europe, although Azerbaijan insists the supplies are merely for domestic use. Either way, though, Moscow benefits.

“Azerbaijan is trying to position itself as a major EU energy partner,” said Aura Sabadus, a gas markets expert at intelligence firm ICIS. “But they don’t have the production and, at the moment, they’re punching above their weight.”

The arrangement is just one of the compromises Western countries are making in aligning themselves with Azerbaijan. The petrostate is also overseeing a crackdown on local dissent that human rights groups say escalated ahead of its current moment on the global stage.

"Europeans see Azerbaijan as an alternative to Russia, but buying energy from Azerbaijan means buying energy from Russia," said Zhala Bayramova, an Azerbaijani dissident who was this week handed the prestigious Magnitsky Human Rights Award for her activism.

Russian roundabout…

Just last week, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy revealed that the country had boosted natural gas sales to Europe by 8.6 percent, accounting for almost a billion cubic meters of fuel.

That’s only the beginning. Azerbaijan’s state energy firm SOCAR has plans to boost annual gas production from around 37 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 49 bcm by 2033, contravening global climate goals to reduce fossil fuel production.

As host of the COP29 summit the authoritarian petrostate has unabashedly promoted its natural gas resources and flaunted new commercial arrangements with several European countries. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

That ambition has been evident at COP29, where Aliyev clinched gas-related deals with Slovakia, Bulgaria and Serbia, paving the way for the country to strengthen its position as a major energy producer for the continent.

But Azerbaijan’s expected production increase is still well below the levels it needs to become one of the main players in supplying Europe.

Instead, Azerbaijan has begun importing natural gas from Russia’s state energy firm Gazprom — securing at least 1 billion cubic meters in an initial contract.

Baku is also in talks to acquire Russian gas and pump it through Ukraine into Central Europe — a potential workaround to keep the fuel flowing when Kyiv’s existing transit agreement with Moscow expires at year’s end.

But the creative solution is a thin mask for the inconvenient truth: Azerbaijan would essentially be laundering Russian gas for Europe.

“People are realizing that this of course won’t be Azeri gas,” said Sabadus, the ICIS gas market specialist. “It would be Russian — you’re just changing the label.”

Additionally, Azerbaijan is hoovering up Russian crude oil, stepping up purchases compared to before the start of the Ukraine war. In 2024, the country bought close to $40 million in Russian crude oil each month, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shared with POLITICO. That’s $23 million in monthly tax revenue for the Kremlin, the organization estimates.

Isaac Levi, lead Russian energy analyst at the think tank, said those 2024 tax revenues are enough money for Moscow to finance over 1,000 newly recruited soldiers.

“There’s a real lack of identifying the true origin of these fossil fuels when they reach the EU,” he said.

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, has lacerated the West at COP29 for being “hypocritical” — accusing countries of asking for more gas, then chiding Baku for promoting that same gas.

The boosted gas exports “was not our idea,” Aliyev said. “It was a proposal of the European Commission … because they needed our gas due to the change in the geopolitical situation. We said OK, we are always ready to help if our help is needed.”

Yet the country is certainly not turning away potential new clients. Elnur Soltanov, Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister who is also the COP29 chief executive, was caught on camera encouraging fossil fuel deals ahead of the climate summit.

"We have a lot of gas fields that are to be developed," Soltanov told investigators posing as potential investors, offering to broker introductions to the country’s fossil fuel producers.

The EU seems invested in cementing a long-term partnership, as well.

A tranche of leaked documents, seen by POLITICO, shows that the European Commission has tried to push Azerbaijan to comply with new rules on methane emissions — which can leak during oil and gas production and is 84 times more potent for global warming than carbon dioxide.

The overture comes ahead of new EU rules that will impose restrictions on exporters that could scupper the bloc’s energy relationship with Azerbaijan.

Political woes

Despite their ever-closer energy ties, Azerbaijan and the EU have an increasingly testy political relationship.

Brussels has called on the South Caucasus country to release political prisoners, whom rights watchdogs say have been jailed on spurious charges and won’t get justice in a system effectively run by Aliyev and his favored elites.

Specifically, the EU’s human rights commissioner pressed Baku to quash the case against imprisoned academic Gubad Ibadoghlu — father of the activist Zhala Bayramova — who was detained after publishing a report that alleged Azerbaijan was laundering Russian gas for sale to the EU.

"I would also advise [the] EU human rights commissioner to deal seriously with growing human rights problems in the European Union instead of preaching [to] others," Aliyev’s foreign policy chief, Hikmet Hajiyev, said in a furious rebuke at the time.

Those tensions haven’t abated at COP29.

France’s top climate official is boycotting the summit after Aliyev accused France (and the Netherlands) of "brutally" suppressing climate change concerns in its overseas territories. Paris, which backs Baku's biggest rival, neighboring Armenia, has previously accused Azerbaijan of inflaming tensions in its Pacific Ocean islands of New Caledonia.

Brussels is even under pressure to reassess its fossil fuel deals with Azerbaijan. The European Parliament — which can only exert pressure on the EU executive — passed a nonbinding resolution earlier this year calling on the EU to do just that, citing the human rights concerns, the ongoing conflict with Armenia and allegations that Baku is laundering Russian gas for Europe.

Yet the EU is not poised to change course.

The EU’s energy deal with Azerbaijan is "helping Europe to diversify away from Russian gas imports,” Tim McPhie, the Commission's energy spokesperson, said in a statement.

The partnership with Baku, he added, “includes regular dialogue on issues including human rights.”

Additionally, the EU countries are free to purchase Russian gas if they want — even if it’s laundered through Azerbaijan. The EU has not sanctioned Russian gas, even though it is encouraging all countries to gradually cut ties.

"The problem is the EU doesn’t consider Azerbaijan to be as dangerous as Russia, when it’s the same kind of state,” said Bayramova, who is campaigning for her father's release. “When there’s accusations Russian gas is being pumped to the EU, there should be an investigation — but the reality is nobody cares."

Germán & Co 11/11/24 Germán & Co 11/11/24

The implications of Trump's affinity for fossil fuels on America's carbon footprint…

Happy Monday!

The recent lull in the blog's analytical discussions prompts a reflection on existence and its understanding. Some philosophers suggest that a life without challenges, filled only with endless joy or sorrow, would be tedious. Life is characterized by various challenges, which become more complex when loved ones face hardships, leading to emotional distress and contemplation of a higher power. Psychologists call this emotional turmoil an adjustment disorder. In these difficult times, individuals often find the resilience needed to protect themselves and their loved ones.

Recognizing life's fleeting nature is essential. Amidst turmoil, an unexpected email from Michelle Casey, founder of DIY PRO, arrived. She created this website during the COVID-19 pandemic to share her home repair skills and help others save money. As an avid crafter, Michelle enjoys using her expertise to assist others. She proposed a guest post on wedding planning for the blog, which was surprising given its focus on energy and geopolitics. Nonetheless, her proposal felt like a beacon of joy on a dreary afternoon in Madrid.

In a chaotic world, 'The Man Who Loved Fireworks' follows Mr. Kin Yong Un as he shares his hopeful vision for the future. He looks forward to the return of a beloved former president, a respected statesman and friend, to lead the nation again. This optimism arose on a tense Tuesday, November 5, when at least seven short-range ballistic missiles were launched from the eastern coast.

We face persistent challenges reminiscent of a surreal circus, similar to President Trump's victory over Kamala Harris. We often ignore the root causes of natural disasters like the devastation in Valencia, the hurricane in Florida, and the wildfires destroying vast areas, highlighting our negligence in protecting the environment.

The bombings of Palestinian communities in the Middle East have caused immense destruction, erasing years of fragile progress and leaving many in despair. Similarly, migrants seeking a better life often go unnoticed, with survivors frequently ending up in detention centers and facing bleak futures. This is a tragic fate.

Many of us are immigrants or descendants of those seeking refuge and opportunity. The distressing images from these crises prompt us to reflect on the future ahead.

An article in 'El País' by Juan Gabriel Vásquez highlights a significant victory for former President Donald Trump. "Harris claimed her opponent had spent a decade dividing citizens and instilling fear. 'That's who he is,' she said. 'Tonight, America, I assert: that is not who we are.'"

Days later, 73 million votes—along with Republican victories in the Senate and likely the House—suggested to Harris that this reflects America's true identity. Understanding Trump's second election will take years. The undeniable truth is that he built a narrative of resentment and violence embraced by millions, framing a dystopian reality where criminals threaten our freedoms.

The former president's victory is largely due to widespread distrust of politicians, particularly among younger voters. This skepticism stems from perceived transparency issues and a disregard for their interests, with corruption and lack of accountability cited as key reasons for their disillusionment with political institutions.

The negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue, especially among the younger population. It has significantly diminished human capital during critical developmental stages, adversely affecting millions of children and young people in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those under 25 when the pandemic began.

Mr. Trump marks a significant shift from traditional political norms. He is more than a businessman; he embodies a confident, larger-than-life persona and serves as a symbolic patriarch for a confused younger generation. Silicon Valley has recognized this better than any survey could express, thriving in expansive fields.

The possibility of a second Trump presidency raises critical questions about its impact on global politics and conflicts. His sweeping promises create complex implications, and his divisive campaign ideology has influenced the global 'network war' on democracy. Reactions to his potential victory vary, with some allies expressing enthusiasm and others anxiety. Experts warn that a second term could confirm the U.S.'s retreat from traditional leadership, weakening alliances, closing the global economy, and regressing democracy and human rights.

His unpredictable behavior and vague campaign details create uncertainty that could disrupt international relations and trade. Four key conflicts may amplify this influence: two ongoing wars (Ukraine and the Middle East) and two potential flashpoints (Taiwan and Korea). Below is an examination of the current signs and signals.

Throughout the campaign, Trump has emphasized his willingness to negotiate a peace agreement and his reluctance to fund Kyiv's war efforts. However, he has not detailed the peace agreement or the timeline for financial support, indicating uncertainty about his plans.

Ukraine and its allies are optimistic about the Pompeo Doctrine, proposed by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which seeks to compel Vladimir Putin to negotiate a reasonable settlement. The doctrine suggests increasing U.S. and ideally Saudi energy production to deter Putin from prolonging the conflict. It also calls for boosting NATO military spending, strengthening the U.S. defense industry, and providing Ukraine with a significant loan. However, Pompeo's traditionalist faction may face challenges in implementation, while an isolationist faction advocates for a different approach. Trump has expressed a desire to end the conflict immediately and opposes further financial commitments.

During the previous legislative session, Republican lawmakers delayed a new aid package, influenced by the Trumpist view that U.S. support for Ukraine is unnecessary. Ultimately, they relented, realizing that without assistance, the upcoming presidential election would occur against a backdrop of a defeated Ukraine, with the Republican candidate facing blame. Trump likely does not want to be remembered as the president under whom Ukraine collapsed, but reconciling this with his "America First" policy is challenging, especially given the inadequate aid and Ukraine's worsening situation. A complete defeat could happen without the political will to prevent it.

European nations have significantly supported Ukraine against invasion, but U.S. support is irreplaceable. The U.S. has contributed about 56 billion euros since 2022, far surpassing the 10 billion euros from Germany and the UK, according to the Kiel Institute. The U.S. also provides critical intelligence and specialized support, while the EU has not sufficiently enhanced its industrial capacity to fill the gap left by U.S. support. Despite limitations, the U.S. remains a vital ally.

Putin has gained an advantage with North Korean soldiers' arrival and is likely aware of his adversaries' hesitance and fatigue. He is expected to persist in his efforts.

A complete Russian victory would be a pivotal moment in history. Even a negotiated settlement with significant territorial concessions would be a major geostrategic win for Russia, reshaping global dynamics. It would suggest that Western democracies' resolve can be challenged, alarming European allies and emboldening authoritarian regimes that view this as a decline in Western influence.

During his initial term, former President Trump showed strong support for Israel and its colonization efforts, seeking to reshape the Middle East by forming alliances with Sunni monarchies against the Shia axis. The Biden administration has also provided significant military aid, with a Brown University study estimating around $18 billion allocated between the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and September 30, 2024, in addition to the annual $4 billion given in previous decades. Israel's violent response, which constitutes severe collective punishment, relies heavily on this support. Despite attempts to impose limitations, the Biden administration's commitment to the two-state solution appears ineffective, and the situation is likely to worsen.

Before the new president's inauguration on January 20, Benjamin Netanyahu will have over two months of autonomy, free from a delegitimized U.S. administration. He is expected to use intense conflict to bolster his political standing. After this period, he will face a president who supports illegal colonization and has abandoned the Iran nuclear agreement. Netanyahu has issued implicit threats about regime change in Iran, and President Trump may pressure him to resolve the conflict for credit. If so, the White House may support Israel's colonization practices and build a transactional relationship with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni regimes, particularly if it involves significant arms deals, as seen during Trump's first term.

These developments may undermine the rights of the Palestinian people and foster closer ties between Iran, Russia, and China, strengthening the emerging authoritarian axis in Asia, including North Korea.

The new Trump administration is likely to impose tariffs and restrictions on sensitive technology regarding China. A key long-term consideration will be its stance on Taiwan, as Xi Jinping emphasizes control over the island. President Biden has notably pledged strong support for Taiwan's defense against unprovoked aggression.

Maintaining U.S. supremacy over China is a key theme in former President Trump's rhetoric and shows bipartisan agreement in Washington. However, his isolationist policies and reluctance for military engagement may lead Beijing to perceive a lack of commitment to defend Taiwan, potentially altering its military strategy for annexation.

The evolving relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow raises concerns. North Korea's military support to Russia seems aimed at securing assistance in military technology, food, and energy, potentially reducing its dependence on China. While an imminent attack on South Korea seems unlikely, it cannot be entirely ruled out, especially if a Trump administration takes a more isolationist approach.

The uncertainty about former President Trump's potential actions is significant. While alarming scenarios may not occur, his first term and recent campaign suggest a departure from 2016 strategies, indicating he may consult fewer diverse advisors.

We invite anyone interested in contributing essays to our blog. Wishing you good health and happiness!

"Letters of Love," edited by Germán & Co and sourced from media.

"Letters of Love," edited by Germán & Co and sourced from media.

Happy Monday to everyone…

An explanation for the recent pause in the blog's analytical dialogue over the past months is due. The exploration into the nature of existence poses the question of its ultimate comprehensibility. Some philosophers argue that a life without challenges, filled with constant happiness or sorrow, would lead to monotony. Life involves a complex array of challenges, from minor to deeply significant. This complexity becomes acute when loved ones face adversity, potentially overwhelming an individual, disrupting their usual life, and causing emotional pain that might result in tears of despair. In such moments, people may reflect on the reasons for their anguish and ponder the existence of a divine entity. Psychologists refer to this emotional upheaval as an adjustment disorder. It is in this metaphorical thicket of difficulties that individuals often find the strength needed to protect themselves and their loved ones.

Furthermore, acknowledging the transient nature of life is crucial. Amidst the chaos and a period of profound sorrow, an unexpected email arrived from Michelle Casey, the founder of DIY PRO. This website offers tips and advice for home improvement projects. Michelle established DIY PRO as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which necessitated her learning home repair skills to save money. Recognizing the importance of adaptable living, she chose to impart her knowledge via DIY PRO. As an enthusiastic crafter, Michelle delights in using her talents to assist others in saving money while enjoying the process. She proposed writing a guest essay on wedding planning for the blog, which was initially surprising due to the blog's focus on energy and geopolitics, although it occasionally covers broader topics. Nevertheless, the wedding planner's offer shone as a ray of joy on a gloomy, solitary afternoon in Madrid.

In the chaotic tapestry of our world, the tale of 'The Man Who Loved Fireworks' (1) unfolds, with none other than Mr. Kin Yong Un sharing his hopeful vision for the future. He eagerly anticipates the return of a beloved former president, a distinguished statesman and cherished companion, to the helm of the nation. This optimistic forecast emerged on a tense Tuesday, November 5, a day marked by the dramatic launch of at least seven short-range ballistic missiles from the eastern shores.

In a context reminiscent of a surreal circus (Espertento) (2) or the world of President Donald Trump's victory over the last-minute Democratic candidate Kamala Harris underscores the persistent challenges we encounter. We frequently neglect to recognize the underlying causes of the natural disasters that beset us, including the catastrophic events in Valencia, the hurricane affecting Florida, and the relentless wildfires that devastate extensive areas of land. These disasters serve to illuminate our negligence in safeguarding the environment.

The continuous bombings targeting Palestinian civilization in the Middle East have wreaked havoc, destroying lives and erasing years of delicate advancement, plunging countless individuals into a state of hopelessness. Similarly, the other “esperpento” is the voyages undertaken by migrants in search of a better existence frequently remain unnoticed; those who survive the ordeal often find themselves in detention centers, confronted with bleak futures. It is indeed a sorrowful fate.

It is crucial to remember that many of us are immigrants or the descendants of those who sought refuge and opportunity. The unsettling images that arise from these crises resemble the distorted yet strikingly real reflections in a funhouse mirror, prompting us to consider the future that lies ahead.

According to an article today: "Donald Trump's apocalypse... by Juan Gabriel Vásquez in the Spanish newspaper 'El País,' the significant victory of former President Donald Trump is encapsulated in these words: "Harris claimed her opponent had spent a decade dividing citizens and instilling fear. 'That's who he is,' she said. 'Tonight, America, I assert: that is not who we are.'"

“Days later, 73 million votes—along with Republican victories in the Senate and likely the House—indicated to Harris that this may reflect their true identity. America's identity crisis will take years to understand how someone like Trump was elected a second time. The undeniable truth is that Trump built a narrative of resentment and violence, which millions accepted. His message was not about returning to a glorious past but defending against a dire present, depicting a dystopian reality where criminals invade our cities and threaten our freedoms.

The significant victory of the former president can largely be ascribed to the prevalent distrust of politicians, particularly among the younger demographic. This widespread skepticism in young adults towards the government is probably due to perceived issues with transparency and the disregard for the interests of the youth. They often cite corruption and a deficiency in accountability as the primary reasons for their disenchantment with political institutions. This is the reality of our times.

Moreover, it is crucial to acknowledge that the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic persist, particularly among the younger population. The pandemic has resulted in a significant reduction in human capital during essential developmental stages, adversely affecting the developmental paths of millions of children and young people in low- and middle-income countries, particularly those who were under the age of 25 when the pandemic started. (3) (3b)

It is important to acknowledge that Mr. Trump signifies a substantial shift from conventional political norms. He is not just a businessman; he embodies a larger-than-life character who exudes a commanding presence, seemingly unfazed by any obstacles encountered. He also stands as a symbolic patriarchal figure for the younger generation, which frequently faces feelings of bewilderment. Silicon Valley comprehended this aspect to a greater extent than any survey could illustrate. Finally, Silicon Valley tree has reached the lush, vast fields! Indeed, it has. (4)

The prospect of a second Trump presidency raises significant questions about its potential impact on global politics and existing conflicts. With promises of sweeping action, the implications of his policies are complex and often lack detail. His campaign's polarizing ideology has already been a fulcrum in the global 'network war' on democracy. International reactions to his election victory have varied, from enthusiasm to thinly veiled anxiety among America's oldest European allies. Experts suggest that a second term could confirm the U.S.'s retreat from its traditional leadership role, potentially leading to crumbling alliances, a closed global economy, and a retreat in democracy and human rights.

His erratic behavior and the murky details of his campaign create a cloud of uncertainty that could shake up international relations in a big way. This ripple effect is likely to be felt in trade, among other areas. Moreover, four key conflicts could serve as conduits for this influence, leading to far-reaching and lasting consequences. Two of these are ongoing wars (Ukraine and the Middle East), while the other two are potential flashpoints (Taiwan and Korea). What comes next is a deep dive into the current signs and signals at play.

Throughout the campaign, Trump has consistently emphasized two points: his readiness to impose a peace agreement and his reluctance to fund Kyiv's war efforts further. However, he has not specified the details of the peace agreement or the schedule for ending financial support. It seems possible that even he is uncertain about his precise plans.

Ukraine and its allies express optimism regarding the Pompeo Doctrine, a framework proposed by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo under the Trump administration, aimed at compelling Vladimir Putin to negotiate a more reasonable settlement. This doctrine advocates for a series of strategic measures, including an increase in energy production in the United States and, ideally, Saudi Arabia, to dissuade Putin from prolonging the conflict by demonstrating that continued hostilities are contrary to his interests. (6) ) (6b "Drill, baby, drill": The American fossil fuel surge could risk a downturn in Europe...) The proposed measures encompass enhancing military expenditures by NATO member states, fortifying the U.S. defense industry, and providing Ukraine with a substantial loan—distinct from a bailout. However, within the Trump political sphere, Pompeo represents a minority traditionalist faction, which may face challenges in implementing its strategies. In contrast, an isolationist faction advocates for a markedly different approach. Trump himself has expressed a desire to terminate the conflict immediately and is opposed to further financial commitments.

During the previous legislative session, Republican lawmakers delayed the approval of a new aid package, influenced by the Trumpist perspective that substantial U.S. financial support for Ukraine is unwarranted. Ultimately, they acquiesced, likely recognizing that without such assistance, the upcoming presidential election in November would occur against the backdrop of a defeated Ukraine, with the Republican candidate bearing the brunt of the blame for that outcome. Trump would likely prefer not to be remembered as the president under whom Ukraine faced total collapse. However, reconciling this desire with his "America First" policy presents significant challenges, particularly given the current inadequacy of aid and Ukraine's deteriorating position. A complete defeat could transpire even in the absence of the political will to avert it.

European nations have made considerable efforts to support Ukraine in its struggle against invasion; however, U.S. support remains irreplaceable. The United States has emerged as Ukraine's largest military benefactor, contributing approximately 56 billion euros since 2022, in stark contrast to the roughly 10 billion euros provided by Germany and the United Kingdom, as reported by the Kiel Institute. Furthermore, the U.S. is the sole provider of critical intelligence and specialized support. The European Union has yet to enhance its industrial capacity sufficiently to compensate for the absence of primary U.S. support. Despite its limitations, the U.S. continues to be an essential ally.

Concurrently, Putin has gained a significant advantage with the arrival of North Korean soldiers and is likely cognizant of the hesitance and fatigue exhibited by his adversaries. He is expected to persist in his efforts.

A complete Russian victory would represent a watershed moment in history. However, even a negotiated settlement resulting in substantial territorial concessions and a curtailment of the foreign policy autonomy of the remaining Ukrainian territory would constitute a considerable geostrategic victory for Russia. Such an outcome would reverberate beyond the immediate region, reshaping global dynamics. It would indicate that the resolve of Western democracies can be surmounted by a more formidable will, sending a profound message worldwide. This would particularly concern European allies facing the prospect of a less engaged United States and would embolden various authoritarian regimes opposed to Western hegemony, who might interpret this as a diminishment of Western influence and a fragmentation of its leadership cohesion.

During his initial term, former President Trump unequivocally demonstrated his support for Israel and its colonization initiatives, while also expressing a desire to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East by cultivating alliances with Sunni monarchies to counter the Shia axis. The Biden administration has provided substantial military assistance to Israel, although the Trump administration may have offered even greater political support. A study conducted by Brown University estimates that the United States has allocated approximately $18 billion in military aid to Israel between October 7, 2023, the date of the notable Hamas attack, and September 30, 2024. This figure is in addition to the roughly $4 billion annually provided over previous decades. Israel's disproportionately violent response, which constitutes a severe form of collective punishment, would not have been feasible without this extensive support. Nonetheless, the Biden administration has attempted, albeit inadequately and ineffectively, to impose certain limitations while maintaining a rhetorical commitment to the two-state solution. The current situation, however, appears poised to deteriorate further. (5)

In the interim period leading up to the inauguration of the new president on January 20, Benjamin Netanyahu will experience a duration of over two months characterized by considerable autonomy, free from the constraints of an outgoing and delegitimized U.S. administration. It is anticipated that he will continue to utilize intense conflict as a strategic approach to consolidate his political standing. Following this period, he will face a president who is markedly supportive of illegal colonization and has renounced the nuclear agreement with Iran, which was established by former President Obama and favored by European nations. It is noteworthy that the Israeli prime minister has recently issued implicit threats concerning potential regime change in Iran. There exists a possibility that President Trump may exert pressure on Netanyahu to resolve the conflict, thereby seeking to claim credit for such an outcome. Should this scenario materialize, it is likely that the White House will demonstrate a strong inclination to accommodate Israel's colonization practices and cultivate a transactional relationship with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni regimes, particularly if such arrangements are accompanied by substantial arms procurement contracts—a strategy previously observed during Trump's first term.

The implications of these developments are multifaceted. They have the potential to not only undermine the foundational aspirations and rights of the Palestinian people but may also facilitate a closer alignment between Iran, Russia, and China. This alignment could further solidify the emerging authoritarian axis in Asia, which encompasses North Korea.

The stance of the new Trump administration towards China is expected to be initially characterized by the imposition of potential tariffs and restrictions on access to sensitive technology. A significant long-term strategic consideration will be the administration's indications regarding Taiwan. Xi Jinping has consistently underscored that China's 'rejuvenation' encompasses the assertion of control over Taiwan. Importantly, President Biden has been the most explicit U.S. president in pledging support for Taiwan's defense against unprovoked aggression.

The maintenance of U.S. supremacy in relation to China constitutes a pivotal theme in the rhetoric of former President Trump, representing a notable area of bipartisan consensus within Washington. Nevertheless, Trump's policy approach is marked by isolationist tendencies and a reluctance to pursue military engagement. If Beijing interprets Trump's hesitance as an indication of unwillingness to defend Taiwan, it may adjust its military strategy concerning the potential annexation of the island.

The evolving relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow raises significant concerns. North Korea's provision of military support to Russia appears to be a strategic maneuver aimed at securing assistance from the Kremlin in areas such as military technology, food supplies, and energy resources. This approach may serve to diminish North Korea's dependence on China and enhance its strategic capabilities. Although it seems unlikely that this alliance will lead to an imminent attack on South Korea, the potential for such an outcome cannot be entirely ruled out, especially if the administration under Trump adopts a more isolationist stance.

The uncertainty regarding the potential actions of former President Trump is significant. While it is possible that the most alarming scenarios may not materialize, the precedents established during his first term and his recent campaign indicate a shift from the strategies employed in 2016. This shift suggests a reduced likelihood of him consulting a diverse array of advisors.

We warmly invite anyone eager to contribute their essays to our blog to join us! As we wrap things up, we send our heartfelt wishes for your good health and happiness.

(1) https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1818736256789963176

(2) Esperpento is a captivating literary style that emerged in Spain.nish literature, pioneered by the talented Ramón María del Valle-Inclán, a multifaceted author born in Pontevedra on October 28, 1866, and who later passed away in Santiago de Compostela on January 5, 1936. As a playwright, poet, and novelist, Valle-Inclán was a key figure in the modernist movement. His unique approach employs twisted portrayals of reality to offer sharp critiques of society, delving into profound themes such as death, the grotesque, and the unsettling transformation of humans into mere objects.

(3) https://energycentral.com/c/hr/drought-1964

(3b) https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/02/16/covid-19-s-impact-on-young-people-risks-a-lost-generation

(4) https://www.politico.com/newsletters/digital-future-daily/2024/10/30/a-boom-or-gloom-election-split-screen-00186340

(5) https://energycentral.com/c/og/natural-gas-fuel-war%E2%80%A6

(6) https://energycentral.com/c/og/uncover-%E2%80%94leitmotiv%E2%80%94-tragedy-trojan-horse-october-7-2023

(6b) https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/5flh6ewlg7n74sf-kf9b4-2ez5f-37lnf-zbyza-tjbhy-zzdh5-enxl7-dt95a-da753

Today…

What Trump’s love affair with fossil fuels means for US emissions…

The president-elect’s plans to impose higher tariffs, repeal environmental regulations and get rid of clean energy tax credits could hamper renewable energy?

How to Say 'I Do' with Sustainability and Style…

Marriage, historically a timeless institution, has transformed into a subject of political debate. But what are its origins?

E&E News by Benjamin Storrow, dated November 8, 2024.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

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https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1855770153029349750

What Trump’s love affair with fossil fuels means for US emissions

The president-elect’s plans to impose higher tariffs, repeal environmental regulations and get rid of clean energy tax credits could hamper renewable energy…

E&E News by Benjamin Storrow, dated November 8, 2024.

The United States is already struggling to meet its goals to cut planet-warming emissions. Enter President-elect Donald Trump.

Come January, Trump will begin enacting an agenda that includes rolling back pollution regulations, unleashing fossil fuel development and withdrawing from international climate efforts like the Paris Agreement. That will likely mean the country falls further behind on its Paris commitment — known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC) — to cut emissions to 50 percent of 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

“The U.S. NDC was going to be a challenge under a [Kamala] Harris administration,” said Dan Klein, an emissions analyst at S&P Commodities Insights. “So it’s going to be even more challenging if it is relying on consumer behavior, state-level decisions and corporates to get the job done.”

Some of Trump's plans will fall short. Energy markets have a way of defying presidential expectations. Trump couldn’t arrest coal’s decline in his first term, and Biden, despite his lofty climate ambitions, had to beg oil producers to drill more when gasoline prices spiked.

The American economy is also likely to get greener over the next four years. Electric vehicle sales are on pace to hit 1.5 million vehicles this year, up from 158,000 when Trump left office. Wind and solar generation are now on par with coal, and liberal states are unlikely to give up on their climate targets, analysts said.

But Trump’s victory comes at a precarious moment in America’s energy transition.

Biden invested $1.6 trillion in greening the economy during his term. His signature bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, contained hundreds of billions of dollars in tax credits intended to help companies and consumers go green.

And yet U.S. emissions have hardly budged and are expected to remain unchanged in the immediate future. In 2021, total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions were 5,418 million tons, according to EPA. The agency has yet to release official figures for the entire economy for 2023. But the Rhodium Group, an independent economic consulting firm, estimates U.S. emissions were 5,410 million tons last year. That was 18 percent lower than 2005 levels.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects that carbon dioxide emissions from energy, which account for three-quarters of total U.S. greenhouse gases, will be flat in 2024 and 2025.

The plateau owes in large part to a slow down in the pace of coal plant retirements. About 48 gigawatts of coal capacity retired under Trump, according to EIA data, amounting to an 18 percent reduction in the U.S coal fleet. The decline meant that emissions continued to fall even as Trump championed policies meant to boost fossil fuels.

But only 33 GW of coal capacity has closed since Biden took office — a sizable number but not large enough to offset rising emissions from other parts of the economy like industry, transportation and increased gas generation in the power sector.

“In my opinion, we’ve squeezed the coal nut almost as hard as it can be squeezed,” said Rob Jackson, a Stanford University professor who tracks global emissions. “At some point, you have to do something else, and we haven’t done enough.”

Most emission modelers think the power sector is the most likely to contribute to emission reductions this decade because technologies like wind and solar are now widely used and cheap. Most analysts think they will continue to grow under Trump. EIA forecasts that U.S. solar capacity alone will increase 80 percent by the end of 2028, with 88 GW of new projects planned across the country.

But while renewables are likely to expand, the pace of new installations could slow.

Offshore wind, which is particularly important to Northeastern states' climate plans, is under particular threat given Trump’s well-known animosity toward the industry and the federal government’s control of the permitting process. Onshore wind development is dependent to a large degree on new transmission capacity, which is hard to permit. Solar deployment could be hampered if Trump follows through on a promise to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Repeal of EPA’s power plant rule could extend the life of aging coal plants and prompt utilities to propose building a wave of new gas plants to meet rising energy demand.

But perhaps the biggest question for the power sector — and U.S. climate efforts as a whole — is how Trump will approach the IRA. Many analysts believe parts of the law will survive, despite Trump referring to it as the “green new scam” on the campaign trail. That's because provisions benefiting nuclear, hydrogen and carbon capture and sequestration have broad bipartisan support.

Some Democrats have expressed hope Republicans will resist repeal efforts because GOP states have been the primary beneficiary of IRA-driven clean energy projects. They point to a letter signed by 18 Republican representatives opposing efforts to repeal the IRA as a reason for optimism.

But in a September panel hosted by the law firm Norton Rose Fulbright, prominent Republicans said a second Trump administration would likely target tax credits for electric vehicles and renewables to help pay for an extension of the tax cuts passed during Trump’s first term.

“I think it is false hope to assume that the number of potential investments in Republican states will act as a firewall against repeal,” said John Gimigliano, a principal at KPMG and a former Republican tax counsel on the House Ways and Means Committee. “There may be some reluctance, but remember that you are forcing Republicans to decide between raising taxes on millions of individuals, including middle-income folks, and repealing incentives for a handful of energy projects in their states or districts.”

Repealing tax credits for renewables could significantly hamper U.S. climate efforts. In May, the Rhodium Group estimated that two credits available to renewables and other zero-carbon producers would contribute 300-400 million tons in emission reductions by 2035, amounting to a 29-46 percent reduction in emissions compared to a scenario without the credits. When Rhodium modeled overall U.S. emissions in July, it concluded U.S. greenhouse gasses were on track to fall between 32-43 percent by 2030 if the IRA and regulations like EPA’s power plant rule regulations remain in place.

Electric vehicles will also bear watching. Electric vehicles reached 9 percent of car sales in the third quarter, a record, and are on pace to hit 1.5 million vehicles for the year, said Corey Cantor, an analyst who tracks the sector at BloombergNEF. That is around the threshold where EVs have begun to reduce oil demand in countries like Norway, he said. Chinese oil demand has also plateaued this year, in part due to robust EV sales.

Attempts to repeal credits benefiting EVs would likely slow adoption in the U.S., Cantor said.

“Subsidies reduce the upfront costs of EVs, and we know that is one of the two main inhibitors for why people don’t buy EVs,” he said, citing range anxiety as the other. “Anything that doesn’t help hurts.”

Jackson, the Stanford professor, echoed that sentiment. Electric vehicle adoption and electrification of space heating in buildings are the two most likely areas outside the power sector to contribute immediate emission reductions, he said.

“Those two sectors, cars and homes, are the two levers I expect the new administration to push back on hardest and fastest,” Jackson said.

"The Covert Conflict on Lithium: An Examination of the Other Hidden War" / https://energycentral.com/c/ec/covert-conflict-lithium-examination-other-hidden-war

How to Say 'I Do' with Sustainability and Style…

*By Michell Casey

*Michelle Casey is the founder of DIY PRO, a website that provides tips and advice for home improvement projects. Michelle created DIY PRO in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced her to learn home repair projects in order to save money. She realized that flexibility in terms of living should be a must, and decided to share her knowledge with others through DIY PRO. Michelle is an avid crafter, and she enjoys using her skills to help others save money and have fun.

The Story of Marriage: A Timeless Journey

Marriage, historically a timeless institution, has transformed into a subject of political debate. But what are its origins?

Marriage: it's not just a game of 'catch the bouquet'! Historians reckon it's been around for a whopping 4,350 years. Ol' Blue Eyes himself, Frank Sinatra, with his four trips down the aisle, said love and marriage go together like a horse and carriage. But let's not kid ourselves, the idea of sticking with one person is pretty new in the history books.

Fast forward to now, and we've got all sorts of love maps—polyamory, ethical non-monogamy, and even sister-wife setups. It's like the ancient world had a garage sale, and we picked out the fun bits! But don't forget, the whole 'till death do us part' spiel has some deep roots too.

Way back before marriage was a thing, families were more like a team sport with up to 30 players, and women were, well, let's just say it was a free-for-all. Then came farming, and suddenly everyone wanted a stable home base.

The first 'I do's' were spotted around 2350 B.C. in Mesopotamia, and it caught on with the Hebrews, Greeks, and Romans. But back then, it wasn't about love; it was more like a business deal to make sure kids were legit.

In Greece, dads would hand over their daughters like they were passing the salt, just to keep the family tree tidy. Guys had a wife for the home, concubines for fun, and sometimes even a young male buddy. If a wife couldn't have kids, she was returned like a bad pair of sandals.

So, when did the church get in on the action? Once they got some clout in Europe, you needed a priest's thumbs up to make it official. By the 8th century, marriage got the holy stamp of approval, and in 1563, the Council of Trent said it was a divine must-do.

This was a game-changer for marriage. Church blessings meant wives got some respect, and husbands were nudged to be more like Prince Charming and less like the village cad.

In today’s world, where sustainability meets style, planning an eco-friendly wedding doesn’t mean compromising on elegance or personal flair. Conscious couples are increasingly seeking ways to celebrate their love while honoring the planet, crafting ceremonies and receptions that are both beautiful and environmentally responsible. This guides how you can seamlessly blend sustainability with sophistication, ensuring that your wedding is not only a reflection of your values but also an exquisite celebration of love.

Select a Sustainable Venue

Choosing the right venue can significantly reduce your wedding's carbon footprint. Look for locations that utilize renewable energy sources like solar or wind power. Such venues not only help in conserving natural resources but also add a modern touch to your wedding setting. Ask about their sustainability practices to ensure they align with your eco-friendly goals.

Ask to Use Venue Decor

Many venues offer decorative items that you can use for free. From table centerpieces to lighting fixtures, utilizing these can decrease both your expenses and environmental impact. By reducing the need to buy new decorations, you support waste reduction and promote a more sustainable celebration style. This also allows you to allocate more of your budget to other important aspects of your wedding, ensuring a perfect balance of style and sustainability.

Embrace Upcycled Decor

Incorporating upcycled and repurposed items into your wedding decor can add a unique charm and personal touch. From vintage glass bottles as vases to reclaimed wood signs, these elements make your wedding uniquely yours while being kind to the planet. This choice reflects a thoughtful consideration of sustainability and style. Moreover, each upcycled piece tells its own story, adding depth and character to your wedding aesthetic.

Choose Biodegradable Confetti

Celebrate with biodegradable confetti. This eco-friendly alternative ensures that your grand exit is as stylish as it is sustainable. Made from natural materials, it decomposes quickly, leaving no trace behind. This small change makes a big difference in keeping your celebration green. Plus, it allows your guests to participate in a guilt-free celebration of your union.

Use Eco-Friendly Tableware

Ditch single-use plastics in favor of eco-friendly tableware. Options like biodegradable plates, bamboo utensils, and cloth napkins reduce waste and add an elegant touch to your dining tables. These sustainable choices are not only practical but also aesthetically pleasing, perfectly blending functionality with style. This shift not only elevates your table setting but also reinforces your commitment to sustainability.

Donate Leftover Food

Plan to donate any leftover food to local shelters or community centers. This act of kindness ensures that your celebration has a positive impact on the community while reducing food waste. It’s a meaningful way to spread joy beyond your wedding day and support those in need. Additionally, this initiative fosters a sense of community and shared celebration, making your special day beneficial for more than just your guests.

As you take on the journey to marry the love of your life, let your wedding also be a celebration of your love for the earth. Your big day can set a precedent for thoughtful, sustainable choices that resonate with your guests and inspire future couples. Through innovative eco-friendly practices, your wedding will not just be remembered for its elegance and joy but also for its gentle footprint on our planet. Celebrate your union and your values by crafting a day that’s as beautiful as it is beneficial to the environment.

Germán & Co 10/15/24 Germán & Co 10/15/24

Could a tax on sunshine be on the horizon?

The "sun tax" hinders the progress of renewable energy, particularly solar power. This policy, enacted in Spain in 2015, imposed tolls and charges on solar power producers, leading to the bankruptcy of many initiatives. It was a flawed fiscal measure enacted without a thorough financial assessment. However, on October 5, 2018, the Spanish government introduced a new Royal Decree to regulate electrical self-consumption, aligning Spain with its European counterparts and advancing the EU's energy objectives for 2030. Battery storage systems are crucial for integrating significant solar power into energy systems, with various applications in the power sector.

Image by Germán & Co

The term "sun tax" might sound like a joke, but unfortunately, it is not. It represents a significant setback for the advancement of renewable energy sources.

This flashback was prompted by our study of new technologies, during which we observed that solar energy has experienced unprecedented growth, making it the fastest-growing energy source over the past five years. This trend is underscored by headlines such as "Germany's solar power output jumps to record highs." (1)

Imagine the madness…

Consider the prospect of being subjected to taxation or tolls for independently producing solar energy without any governmental regulation. This scenario represents a significant deviation from the norm in the context of renewable energy generation, as it introduces a variable associated with solar energy known as natural consumption.

The so-called sun tax was an energy policy implemented in Spain in 2015 through Royal Decree 900/2015. Despite its name, it was not a tax in the traditional sense; rather, it consisted of tolls and charges imposed on solar power producers. This policy, which appeared disconnected from the realities of the electricity industry, dealt a severe blow to the advancement of solar energy and resulted in the bankruptcy of hundreds of initiatives that were utilising this technology.

The irrational fiscal measure was enacted during Mariano Rajoy's conservative administration in response to a substantial negative balance in the stabilisation fund for tariffs. This decision was made without adequately assessing the financial implications and potential consequences.

Fortunately, on October 5, 2018, three years after its introduction, the Spanish government enacted a Royal Decree that delineated new regulations governing electrical self-consumption. This decree promotes collective self-consumption and introduced a streamlined mechanism for compensating self-generated and unused energy. Consequently, Spain aligns more closely with its European counterparts and is making progress towards achieving the European Union's energy objectives for 2030.

The analysis of the historical context surrounding the fiscal policy known as the sun tax indicates that, regardless of the political affiliation of those in power, economic constraints often result in the adoption of misguided fiscal strategies. Historical patterns which suggest a tendency for similar circumstances to recur over time further corroborate this observation.

The importance of battery storage systems in the boom of solar power…

Finally, it is essential to highlight the promising role of battery storage systems. These systems are emerging as one of the key solutions for effectively integrating high shares of solar power into energy systems. A recent analysis from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) illustrates how storage technologies can be used for a variety of applications in the power sector, from behind-the-meter applications to utility-scale use cases.

(1) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-solar-power-output-jumps-record-highs-maguire-2024-05-14/

Today…

The exponential growth of solar power will change the world.

An energy-rich future is within reach…

The Economist, Jun 20th 2024

How high could the oil price go?

Geopolitical risk is rising. But so is the supply of oil…

The Economist, oct 10th 2024

The History of Solar Energy: Past, Present, and Future…

Historical Tools, March 30, 2024

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1846182574109896987

“Maximo is the first proven solar installation robot on the market,” said Andrés Gluski, AES President and CEO. “We are facing unprecedented increases in demand, driven in large part by the rise of AI and data centers, and innovations like these will be fundamental for accelerating our ability to bring projects online faster and with greater efficiency.”

Artistic creations and intellectual property by Germán Toro Ghio & Co.

The exponential growth of solar power will change the world

An energy-rich future is within reach…

The Economist, Jun 20th 2024

It is 70 years since AT&T’s Bell Labs unveiled a new technology for turning sunlight into power. The phone company hoped it could replace the batteries that run equipment in out-of-the-way places. It also realised that powering devices with light alone showed how science could make the future seem wonderful; hence a press event at which sunshine kept a toy Ferris wheel spinning round and round.

Today solar power is long past the toy phase. Panels now occupy an area around half that of Wales, and this year they will provide the world with about 6% of its electricity—which is almost three times as much electrical energy as America consumed back in 1954. Yet this historic growth is only the second-most-remarkable thing about the rise of solar power. The most remarkable is that it is nowhere near over.

To call solar power’s rise exponential is not hyperbole, but a statement of fact. Installed solar capacity doubles roughly every three years, and so grows ten-fold each decade. Such sustained growth is seldom seen in anything that matters. That makes it hard for people to get their heads round what is going on. When it was a tenth of its current size ten years ago, solar power was still seen as marginal even by experts who knew how fast it had grown. The next ten-fold increase will be equivalent to multiplying the world’s entire fleet of nuclear reactors by eight in less than the time it typically takes to build just a single one of them.

Solar energy is rapidly expanding and cost-effective, poised for substantial growth…

Solar cells will in all likelihood be the single biggest source of electrical power on the planet by the mid 2030s. By the 2040s they may be the largest source not just of electricity but of all energy. On current trends, the all-in cost of the electricity they produce promises to be less than half as expensive as the cheapest available today. This will not stop climate change, but could slow it a lot faster. Much of the world—including Africa, where 600m people still cannot light their homes—will begin to feel energy-rich. That feeling will be a new and transformational one for humankind.

To grasp that this is not some environmentalist fever dream, consider solar economics. As the cumulative production of a manufactured good increases, costs go down. As costs go down, demand goes up. As demand goes up, production increases—and costs go down further. This cannot go on for ever; production, demand or both always become constrained. In earlier energy transitions—from wood to coal, coal to oil or oil to gas—the efficiency of extraction grew, but it was eventually offset by the cost of finding ever more fuel.

As our essay this week explains, solar power faces no such constraint. The resources needed to produce solar cells and plant them on solar farms are silicon-rich sand, sunny places and human ingenuity, all three of which are abundant. Making cells also takes energy, but solar power is fast making that abundant, too. As for demand, it is both huge and elastic—if you make electricity cheaper, people will find uses for it. The result is that, in contrast to earlier energy sources, solar power has routinely become cheaper and will continue to do so.

Other constraints do exist. Given people’s proclivity for living outside daylight hours, solar power needs to be complemented with storage and supplemented by other technologies. Heavy industry and aviation and freight have been hard to electrify. Fortunately, these problems may be solved as batteries and fuels created by electrolysis gradually become cheaper.

A world with more energy is generated without oil and gas…

Another worry is that the vast majority of the world’s solar panels, and almost all the purified silicon from which they are made, come from China. Its solar industry is highly competitive, heavily subsidised and is outstripping current demand—quite an achievement given all the solar capacity China is installing within its own borders. This means that Chinese capacity is big enough to keep the expansion going for years to come, even if some of the companies involved go to the wall and some investment dries up.

In the long run, a world in which more energy is generated without the oil and gas that come from unstable or unfriendly parts of the world will be more dependable. Still, although the Chinese Communist Party cannot rig the price of sunlight as OPEC tries to rig that of oil, the fact that a vital industry resides in a single hostile country is worrying.

It is a concern that America feels keenly, which is why it has put tariffs on Chinese solar equipment. However, because almost all the demand for solar panels still lies in the future, the rest of the world will have plenty of scope to get into the market. America’s adoption of solar energy could be frustrated by a pro-fossil-fuel Trump presidency, but only temporarily and painfully. It could equally be enhanced if America released pent up demand, by making it easier to install panels on homes and to join the grid—the country has a terawatt of new solar capacity waiting to be connected. Carbon prices would help, just as they did in the switch from coal to gas in the European Union.

The aim should be for the virtuous circle of solar-power production to turn as fast as possible. That is because it offers the prize of cheaper energy. The benefits start with a boost to productivity. Anything that people use energy for today will cost less—and that includes pretty much everything. Then come the things cheap energy will make possible. People who could never afford to will start lighting their houses or driving a car. Cheap energy can purify water, and even desalinate it. It can drive the hungry machinery of artificial intelligence. It can make billions of homes and offices more bearable in summers that will, for decades to come, be getting hotter.

But it is the things that nobody has yet thought of that will be most consequential. In its radical abundance, cheaper energy will free the imagination, setting tiny Ferris wheels of the mind spinning with excitement and new possibilities.

This week marks the summer solstice in the northern hemisphere. The Sun rising to its highest point in the sky will in decades to come shine down on a world where nobody need go without the blessings of electricity and where the access to energy invigorates all those it touches.

How high could the oil price go?

Geopolitical risk is rising. But so is the supply of oil…

The economist, Oct 10th 2024

All around the world consumers, motorists and politicians are nervously eyeing the oil price. The conflict between Israel and Hamas that began a year ago is spreading. If all-out war erupts between Israel and Iran, the threat to the Middle East, a region that produces a third of the world’s crude, is as obvious as it is scary. Few commodities affect the global economy as much as oil does. And, as America’s presidential candidates are keenly aware, few are as likely to sway an election. The past two years of inflation have shown just how much voters hate sticker shock.

The price of oil rose by 10% in a week, as Israel attacked Hizbullah, a Lebanese militia backed by Iran, and Iran retaliated with around 200 missiles fired directly at Israel. On October 7th it reached $81 a barrel, before falling. Two and a half years ago Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices surging beyond $120, as the West imposed sanctions on Russia and fears intensified of disruptions to the supply from the world’s second-biggest exporter. What could happen this time? If the fighting gets worse, a serious oil shock is possible. But a glut of supply means the oil market is less vulnerable to such a shock than it was in 2022.

As we published this, Israel had yet to retaliate against Iran. On October 3rd Joe Biden, America’s president, jolted the market when he hinted that Iran’s oil infrastructure might be in Israel’s cross-hairs. However, that is only one of many possible targets. And even if Iran’s oil output were disrupted, it is not as big a producer as Russia. It exports nearly 2m barrels per day (bpd), about 2% of the global supply. By comparison, Russia exports nearly 5m bpd.

The global picture, too, is markedly different from 2022. When Russia invaded Ukraine oil was in short supply and demand was roaring back, as the world’s economies came out of covid lockdowns. The market was ripe for an upset. Today the world is swimming in oil. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, had sought to keep prices high by pumping less. But that plan has failed, fuelling indiscipline and cheating by other members. Now it is being abandoned, with the cartel promising to increase output in December.

Even Saudi Arabia, which is desperate for higher prices to finance its gaudy spending plans at home, is throwing in the towel. It has reportedly dropped its price “target” of $100 a barrel, so that it can at least shore up its market share. OPEC and its allies have spare capacity of more than 5m bpd; Saudi Arabia alone could ramp up production by 3m.

OPEC’s squabbles mask a more fundamental shift. Nearly 60% of the world’s oil now comes from countries other than the cartel and its allies, up from 44% in 2019. America’s shalemen have become the biggest producers in the world by far. Brazil, Canada and Guyana have all increased their output in recent years. According to the International Energy Agency, production by non-OPEC countries will grow by 1.5m bpd next year.

At the same time, demand for oil has been tepid. After their post-pandemic bounce-back, the economies of America and Europe are slowing down as past interest-rate increases start to bite. China’s economy is struggling under the weight of its property slump. On October 8th America’s Energy Information Administration revised down its forecast for global oil demand in 2025 as a result of weakening manufacturing activity around the world. Before the latest escalation in the Middle East, oil traders had expected a glut in 2025 as a consequence of weakening demand growth and expanding supply, pushing prices below $70 a barrel.

Today’s ample supply provides a shield against geopolitical shocks, but not an impregnable one. If Israel were to hit Iran’s own oil infrastructure, Iran could attack oil producers that have signed economic accords with Israel, such as Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates. Or it could block the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the Gulf’s oil travels. That might push the oil price close to its highs of 2022.

Iran’s theocratic rulers would be foolish to take such actions, which could draw America into the conflict and infuriate Iran’s few remaining friends, such as China, the world’s biggest oil importer. But in the Middle East, nightmare scenarios can never quite be ruled out. Because oil production is still concentrated in a handful of countries, the supply remains vulnerable to the reckless decisions of a few autocrats. Thanks to rising global production and weakening demand, however, the market is better cushioned than it has been before.

"Tilt Renewables" has chosen Fluence to develop Australia's Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System. Announced on September 17, 2023, the project will feature a 100 MW / 200 MWh battery system south of Morwell, Victoria, utilizing Fluence's Gridstack™, a two-decade service agreement, Mosaic™ AI-driven bidding software, and Nispera™ asset performance management tool— mes for renewable energy in Australia, "Julian Nebreda the CEO and President of Fluence Energy," stated.

The History of Solar Energy: Past, Present, and Future…

Historical Tools, March 30, 2024

Solar energy, often seen as a modern innovation, has a history of nearly two centuries. The 1839 discovery of the photovoltaic effect laid the groundwork for today's solar panels, but decades of innovation were needed to develop this high-efficiency energy source. This overview highlights solar energy's history and future potential, from early solar-powered satellites to current rooftop arrays and utility-scale solar farms.

The Rise of Solar Energy…

The story of solar energy began in 1839 when French physicist Edmond Becquerel discovered the photovoltaic effect, generating electric currents in materials exposed to light. This finding revealed the potential to convert sunlight into electrical energy.

Other scientists began experimenting with solar cells made from selenium. In 1883, American inventor Charles Fritts built the first solar array on a New York City rooftop, using selenium wafers to generate electrical currents. Despite achieving only 1% efficiency, this prototype showcased solar energy's practical potential.

Early 20th Century: Steady Progress

Solar energy technology advanced slowly in the early 20th century until Albert Einstein's 1905 paper on the photoelectric effect earned him the Nobel Prize in Physics. His work highlighted the particle nature of light and introduced photons, improving the understanding of the photovoltaic effect.

Silicon-based solar cells were first developed in the 1940s but were too costly for widespread use. The Space Age accelerated their adoption, as solar energy became an attractive power source for satellites and spacecraft.

The Space Race Boosts Solar Energy…

In 1958, the U.S. launched Vanguard 1, the first solar-powered satellite. It used six solar panels to stay in orbit for over six years. This innovation led to other solar-powered satellites, like NASA's Nimbus and the Soviet Sputnik 3.

During the 1960s Space Race, solar energy became vital for extended space missions. The lightweight Ranger moon probes used solar arrays with thousands of solar cells, while the Mariner 2 probe, the first successful interplanetary spacecraft, powered its 1962 flyby of Venus with solar energy.

Early applications highlighted solar energy's advantages for space exploration. With no moving parts and the ability to generate power indefinitely, solar arrays were more practical than batteries for long missions. In the 1970s, as NASA explored the solar system deeper, photovoltaics became the standard power system for its spacecraft and remains so today.

The 1970s Oil Crisis Fuels a Solar Revolution…

Solar energy technology progressed slowly through the mid-20th century but was uncompetitive with cheap fossil fuels. The 1970s oil crisis, marked by rising oil prices and market uncertainty, highlighted the need for alternative energy sources.

The oil crisis led to heightened government and private investment in solar energy worldwide. In 1977, the U.S. established the Solar Energy Research Institute (now the National Renewable Energy Laboratory) to promote photovoltaic innovation. Germany and Japan also emerged as early leaders in solar technology and manufacturing.

By 1980, the global solar industry produced over 500 megawatts annually, with costs plummeting from around $100 per watt in 1975 to under $10 by 1985. While still a minor part of overall energy generation, solar was increasingly viable, setting the stage for a revolution in solar energy.

Exponential Growth and Lower Costs: The Current Solar Era…

Solar energy has become one of the fastest-growing energy sources in the last four decades, with statistics reflecting its exponential growth.

In 1983, global solar photovoltaic installations were just 21.3 megawatts. By 2021, they had surged to over 843,000 megawatts, a nearly 40,000-fold increase.

Since 2010, solar energy costs have fallen over 85%, making it competitive with fossil fuels. It is now the cheapest source of new electricity for over two-thirds of the global population.

Solar contributes nearly half of new global electricity generation capacity annually, a share that is increasing. In a sustainable development scenario, it could meet 20% of global electricity needs by 2030.

Advancements in technology and economies of scale drive the rapid growth of solar energy. Solar cell efficiency has doubled since the 1970s, and new materials have lowered costs. Governments globally have also introduced subsidies and tax incentives to encourage solar adoption.

The convergence of trends has transformed the solar energy landscape. At the turn of the millennium, solar energy contributed less than 0.01% of global electricity generation; today, it exceeds 3% and is rapidly increasing. In countries like Germany, Italy, and Australia, solar accounts for over 10% of electricity generation.

Modern Solar Technology and Applications…

Solar energy technology has advanced from inefficient, costly solar cells. Modern solar panels use key innovations for exceptional efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

Monocrystalline silicon is the main material for solar cells, which are made from thin wafers of a single silicon crystal. In high-end models, these cells achieve over 25% efficiency.

Multi-junction solar cells, designed for satellites and spacecraft, layer various semiconductor materials to capture a broader range of light wavelengths, achieving nearly 40% efficiency in NASA's advanced models.

Solar concentrators utilize lenses and mirrors to focus sunlight on photovoltaic material, improving efficiency and reducing costs. Concentration ratios range from 2x to over 1,000x.

Bifacial modules are a new solar panel design featuring photovoltaic material on both sides, allowing the rear to capture light reflected from the ground or other surfaces.

Anti-reflective coatings are thin layers on solar cells that reduce reflection and improve light absorption, boosting efficiency by several percentage points.

Advances in photovoltaic technology have showcased solar energy's versatility in various applications, including:

1) Utility-Scale Power Generation

Large solar farms supplying power to regional grids are the most notable application of solar energy. India's largest Bhadla Solar Park has 2.2 gigawatts and over 10 million solar panels across 5,700 acres. In the U.S., several projects are nearing or exceeding 1 gigawatt, including the Samson Solar Energy Center in northeast Texas.

2) Distributed Rooftop Solar

Distributed solar energy in homes and businesses is as vital as large utility-scale projects. Falling costs have made rooftop solar an attractive investment for millions worldwide. In Australia, over 30% of homes have solar panels, while the U.S. share is about 3%, increasing. Energy storage solutions like the Tesla Powerwall provide backup power and reduce dependence on the electrical grid.

3) Solar Lighting and Off-Grid Use

Solar energy is increasingly used for lighting and power in areas without electrical grids. It effectively serves remote villages and forward operating bases, reducing reliance on dangerous kerosene lamps in developing countries.

Solar Heating & Cooling

While photovoltaic systems dominate the solar industry, solar thermal technology is also significant. Solar water heaters use the sun's energy to provide hot water for various facilities at a lower cost than electric or gas systems. Furthermore, solar air conditioning, which employs solar heat for cooling, is becoming increasingly popular.

The Future: Solar Energy's Potential

Although solar energy has advanced significantly, it still represents a small portion of global energy production, primarily dominated by fossil fuels. With decreasing costs and the pressing need for clean energy due to climate change, experts expect substantial growth in solar energy in the coming decades.

The International Energy Agency forecasts that solar energy may become the largest source of global electricity by 2050, providing nearly 30% of total generation. Other studies suggest that it could meet most energy demand in sunny regions with available land.

Realizing solar energy's potential requires overcoming challenges, particularly its intermittency—no power is generated at night or on cloudy days. Affordable, long-duration energy storage solutions are essential for dispatching solar electricity as needed.

Integrating more solar energy into electrical grids requires upgrades to transmission infrastructure, advanced distribution electronics, and new tariff models. Concerns about land use for large solar farms and the disposal of old solar panels also need to be addressed.

Despite challenges, the future of solar energy looks promising. Advancing technology, decreasing costs, government support, and rising public demand for clean energy drive its global growth. Solar energy's vast, nearly limitless potential suggests we have only begun to tap into its capabilities.

The scientists who harnessed solar power nearly two centuries ago likely never anticipated its rapid advancement. The story of solar energy is just beginning, with the potential to meet humanity's energy needs cleanly and affordably for generations. Solar power will be central to our sustainable future, and the outlook is promising..

Germán & Co 10/12/24 Germán & Co 10/12/24

“Esperpento” that’s the world today?

The term "esperpento" perfectly captures the stark truths of our modern world. We often overlook the root causes of natural disasters, like the hurricanes wreaking havoc in Florida and the relentless wildfires raging across the globe. These tragedies serve as a stark reminder of our failure to care for the planet. Meanwhile, the harrowing bombings in the Middle East have left millions in despair, undoing years of hard-won stability. The struggles of migrants, who brave treacherous seas in search of a better life, frequently go unnoticed; many who manage to survive these perilous journeys find themselves trapped in detention centers. What a cruel twist of fate. It’s crucial to remember that most of us today are either immigrants or the descendants of those who sought refuge. The disturbing images that arise from these issues are akin to the warped reflections seen in funhouse mirrors—distorted yet painfully real. What does the future hold for us?

"Esperpento," a fascinating literary style born from the genius of Ramón María del Valle-Inclán, a versatile author from Pontevedra, invites us to confront these unsettling realities. Valle-Inclán, who graced the world with his presence from October 28, 1866, until January 5, 1936, was a pivotal figure in the modernist movement. His distinctive technique twists reality into grotesque forms, offering sharp critiques of society while exploring deep themes like mortality and the unsettling transformation of humans into mere objects.

Image by Germán & Co

Happy Sunday to everyone…

The term (1) —esperpento— aptly encapsulates the harsh realities of contemporary existence. We underestimate the underlying causes of natural disasters, such as the hurricanes devastating Florida and the persistent wildfires globally. These calamities are a poignant reminder of humanity's insufficient stewardship of the environment. Furthermore, the devastating bombings in the Middle East have profoundly affected millions, reversing years of progress and weak stability. The plight of migrants, who undertake perilous sea voyages in pursuit of improved living conditions, is often overlooked; many who survive these treacherous journeys are confined in detention centres. What a fucking fate. We must acknowledge that most individuals today are immigrants or descendants of immigrants. The disturbing imagery associated with these issues evokes the warped reflections produced by concave mirrors in amusement parks, yet the reality depicted is profoundly troubling. What lies ahead?

(1) Esperpento is a captivating literary style that emerged in Spanish literature, pioneered by the talented Ramón María del Valle-Inclán, a multifaceted author born in Pontevedra on October 28, 1866, and who later passed away in Santiago de Compostela on January 5, 1936. As a playwright, poet, and novelist, Valle-Inclán was a key figure in the modernist movement. His unique approach employs twisted portrayals of reality to offer sharp critiques of society, delving into profound themes such as death, the grotesque, and the unsettling transformation of humans into mere objects.

Today…

Gas looks beyond the Middle East and turns its steps off from oil…

As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, gas consumption is growing rapidly. Despite a slight price increase this Thursday, the cost of fuel for industry and heating in Europe remains almost unchanged from last week.

The shadow of Hormuz or why oil prices finally react to the Middle East turmoil…

Iran’s retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon fuels fears that the political crisis will spread to the crude oil market

El Pais by Ignacio Fariza, Madrid 4 - 11 OCT 2024

Brazilian Vale appointed Gustavo Pimenta as president, effective October 1, 2024…

The succession process showed Vale’s strong integrity, transparency, and governance. "We are confident in Gustavo Pimenta as Vale's leader," Stieler stated.

Source: FORBES, August 28, 2024

The shift towards sustainable energy will rely heavily on essential minerals and metals...

Source: Media

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

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2022, the Njord Alpha oil platform, operated by Equinor, is being transported by the Siem Pearl vessel through the Norwegian fjord. Image and copyright by Germán & Co.

Gas looks beyond the Middle East and turns its steps off from oil…

As winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, gas consumption is growing rapidly. Despite a slight price increase this Thursday, the cost of fuel for industry and heating in Europe remains almost unchanged from last week.

El Pais by Ignacio Fariza, Madrid - 11 OCT 2024

Oil and gas rarely move in different directions: their prices tend to go together—almost always, but not always. Recent days are a vivid example of this cyclical asynchrony: the recent rise in the price of Brent has barely moved—to the surprise of many—to the main reference of the natural gas market in Europe, the Dutch TTF, which has been much less shaken by developments in the Middle East.

It was as if Iran, the world's seventh-largest gas producer and second in reserves, had not wholly entered the conflict. As if the fear of an Israeli attack on its infrastructure-"a significant risk, though less likely than an attack on military facilities," in the words of Fernando Ferreira, geopolitical risk director at Rapidan Energy Group-is not a real option.

At the gates of the cold season in the northern hemisphere, when gas consumption grows exponentially, and despite the rise recorded this Thursday, the price of fuel in industry and heating in the Old Continent is almost the same level as at the beginning of last week. As if Iran, the world's seventh-largest gas producer and second in reserves, had not wholly entered the conflict. As if the fear of an Israeli attack on its infrastructure-"a significant risk, though less likely than an attack on military facilities," in the words of Fernando Ferreira, geopolitical risk director at Rapidan Energy Group-is not a real option. And as if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key enclave for the transit of hydrocarbons that passes through 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG, which travels by boat) that moves every day in the world—would not have ceased to be a remote option to become something still far away but already plausible.

"Gas prices initially responded to the escalation of tension in the Middle East, but unlike oil, they settled later," says Tom Marzec-Manser, head of analysis for the gas market at the British consultancy ICIS. However, he recalls, "an increase in Egyptian demand, which is heavily dependent on Israeli gas, could reduce availability in Europe.

A reduction in Iranian production would impact the pipeline supply to Turkey, which would also strain the continental LNG market. "He is reassured, however, by the recent meeting between the Iranian and Qatari authorities to try to ensure the normal flow of gas exports from the emirate regardless of what happens in the geopolitical arena.

Risk premium…

There are some possible explanations for the fact that gas, an asset usually more nervous and volatile than crude oil, has yet to follow in the footsteps of its older brother. The first and perhaps most important is that methane prices remained strong while oil prices languished in summer. For example, we need to respond more effectively to the complete filling of underground deposits in the 27 (95% today) or to still weak European demand. Internalizing, instead, the meteorological models that foreshadowed a winter colder than last by the phenomenon of La Niña.

This higher starting point in the gas price already implied a higher risk premium for geopolitics. Both by Russia and Ukraine and to a lesser extent by Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and now also Iran. This is how Pedro Cantuel, an energy analyst at the Ignis Group, sees the recent upheaval in the Middle East "internalized" in the gas market. "The fundamentals remain robust, and the strong speculative exposure in the European market is already known... This higher starting point in the gas price already implied a higher risk premium for geopolitics. Both by Russia and Ukraine and to a lesser extent by Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and now also Iran. This is how Pedro Cantuel, energy analyst of the Ignis group, sees the recent upheaval in the Middle East "internalized" in the gas market. "The fundamentals remain robust, and the strong speculative exposure in the European market is already known... That, coupled with the instability in areas affecting LNG routes, keeps prices high, too, "sums it up. " Another thing", he adds, "would be to escalate the conflict in the Middle East even further".

Unlike oil, where most projections point to a clear stagnation of demand in the coming years, with the EU and China having already left behind their peak consumption for natural gas, most projections still point to a long decade of global growth. Hence, the expected landing of prices will come somewhat later.

No impact on the price of electricity…

The current situation has little to do with the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not only because of the scale of the price crisis-still very incipient today, the biggest in the history of the Old Continent a couple of years ago because now the earthquake's epicentre is located in the crude and not in the gas. " The biggest current risk in the gas market is a cold winter in Europe," Marzec-Manser said.

This shift in the balance also has a sectoral impact: the oil boom affects mainly transport, while gas affects both industry and retail consumers. This was the case in the disastrous 2022 when they saw the cost of heating their homes and their electricity bill skyrocket.

Far from rising, the wholesale price of electricity is even lower today than a couple of weeks ago. This is not only because gas has not followed the footsteps of crude oil, but also because of the greater contribution of renewables. Wind and rain, in particular, have significantly boosted the generation of electricity in much of the European continent, providing an optimistic outlook for the future of energy economics. This increased reliance on renewables acts as an important buffer that limits the channels of contagion on families and SMEs.

The shadow of Hormuz or why oil prices finally react to the Middle East turmoil…

Iran’s retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon fuels fears that the political crisis will spread to the crude oil market

El Pais by Ignacio Fariza,  Madrid - 03 OCT 2024

Oil is no longer immune to the powder magazines of the Middle East. After several weeks of general anaesthesia, with the price of crude oil at a low for almost three years, Iran’s entry into the conflict has rekindled latent fear: the regional clash will eventually result in an Israeli retaliation on Iranian wells or even an attack by Tehran on Saudi deposits or refineries, as happened in September 2019. The most extreme scenario, and feared for its consequences, would be the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an absolutely crucial route that flows one-fifth of the world’s crude oil. The closure of this route between Iran and Oman, which is only 34 kilometres long at its most narrow point, would significantly blow the price balance.

Those who follow the daily energy markets have been absorbed for weeks, wondering how it was possible that the price did not react even minimally to the escalation in the Middle East, home to one out of every three barrels extracted daily on the planet. What we were seeing was something extraordinary in historical terms,” reflects Jorge León, vice president and head of oil analysis at the consultancy Rystad Energy, after many years as a senior analyst for OPEC.

Some rubbed their eyes: “A year ago, just with the conflict between Israel and Lebanon, the price of oil would have gone to triple digits [100 dollars]”, wrote Norbert Rücker, head of economic studies at the Swiss investment bank Julius Baer. A few hours before, Iran whipped up the regional hornet’s nest with two hundred missiles fired over Israeli soil and raised the price of Brent by four dollars in just two days.

The markets were confident that the shock would not be too great and that the large capacity or (surplus) capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), at a maximum for many years, would compensate for any possible cut in production. But this fragile balance has been blown up by the Iranian attack on Israel, a move with consequences yet to be deciphered. Thus, the so-called geopolitical fatigue said goodbye: the false sense of security after not a single barrel had been sold in the almost 12 months since the Hamas attacks on Israel.

The current situation marks the first time someone has inquired about its limits. What is Israel’s response now? And what is Iran’s possible response? Will other [regional] actors be involved?” Trafigura chief economist Saad Rahim rhetorically asks in statements to Bloomberg. His voice is not light: Trafigura is one of the world’s largest commodity traders.

However, one thing is clear: “The oil market came from a stage of extreme complacency about geopolitical risk,” summarizes Bob McNally, former energy advisor to the US administration during the time of George W. Bush. “That risk premium will grow whether the market perceives that escalation directly impacts energy infrastructures or flows, or if Israel attacks infrastructure critical to the [Iranian] regime”.

When will the oil demand reach its peak? IEA and OPEC War of Numbers…

Despite the twist of the script in recent days, it is essential to put the climb into perspective. Even after two consecutive days of rising, which brought Brent to around $75 per barrel levels at the beginning of September, the European benchmark remains close to its annual lows.

And it remains, at least for now, a worrying element amid interest rate declines on both sides of the Atlantic. It would have to rise much more to become an inflationary factor again.

The second hot spot has to do with the significant change in the world market structure in recent years. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and even Kuwait have a significant spare capacity they could put on the market if needed: about eight million barrels per day, four of them in a very short time (less than 60 days). A significant buffer, superior to what Iran, the world’s seventh largest producer of crude oil, puts on the market every day: 3.2 million barrels, 4% of the total.

That should calm the market,” Leon says on the phone. China, a market where consumption is showing signs of weakness and where the electrification of transport clearly pushes down medium—and long-term forecasts, has already left its peak production behind. According to the calculations of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a theoretical surplus will start next year and reach its zenith in 2030.

Radical shift in market structure…

The world bazaar of crude oil has little to do with that of a decade ago. Although still significant, the weight of the Persian Gulf countries is noticeably lower, which reduces the proportion of oil subject to geopolitical turmoil. The other side of this coin is increasing production in Western countries or the Western orbit: Canada, Brazil, Guyana and, above all, the United States, which has managed to become the first extractor of crude oil on the planet at the back of hydraulic fracturing (fracking), a technique that has revolutionized the sector. The result of both forces is a greater volume of crude oil in the face of geopolitical upheaval.

There’s more. The second day of increases in crude oil prices coincided with the telematic meeting between members of the OPEC cartel, with the still-alive prospect of ending, as from December, the unilateral supply cuts they have tried to sustain prices in recent years. A step that, if taken, would push down the cost of crude oil.

If Israel’s [Iran’s] response is not too aggressive, markets might consider that both countries prefer to scale down after a short hostile exchange for the second time this year,” says Francesco Pesole of Dutch bank ING. “Leon’s Trench, referring to the potential closure of the Strait, the last weapon in the Iranian arsenal to damage the West economically and whose activation would elevate the conflict to another dimension. “The consequences on global supply would be huge, similar to the one that had the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022”—said soon.

Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, the president of Vale Brazil, was featured in a compelling photograph published by Forbes. Editing by Germçan & Co.

Brazilian Vale appointed Gustavo Pimenta as president, effective October 1, 2024.

Source: FORBES, August 28, 2024

The board of directors of Brazilian Vale has unanimously elected Gustavo Pimenta as the company’s next president, replacing Eduardo Bartolomeo on October 1, as the company reported to the market in the early hours of last Monday.

The appointment was made following a rigorous selection process supported by an international standard company by Vale’s bylaws, corporate policies, board rules, and applicable legislation.

As the board chairman, Daniel Stieler, has pointed out, Pimenta has the skills to aim for a new virtuous circle for the company, with great potential for generating value for all its stakeholders.

“The succession process demonstrated the high level of integrity, transparency and solidity of Vale’s governance. We are very happy and confident with the choice of Gustavo Pimenta to lead Vale”, has defended Stieler.

The newly appointed president of Vale has thanked the council for their confidence in leading the company through this new cycle. “Let us walk this path together, intensifying dialogue with all our stakeholders and prioritizing the safety of people, operations and the environment. I am confident that we will continue to advance our mission, focusing on generating and distributing value, elevating Vale to even higher levels,” he said.

The outgoing president, Eduardo Bartolomeo, has been “very optimistic” with his replacement, whom he considers “a professional with recognized competence and commitment”.” With Gustavo Pimenta, I believe that Vale will continue firmly on its path towards leadership in sustainable mining and value creation for all stakeholders”, he noted.

Extensive experience in the financial, energy and mining sectors…

Pimenta is a global executive with experience in the financial, energy, and mining sectors and a career that has developed over twenty years in Brazil, the United States, and Europe.

In 2021, he took over as executive vice president of Finance and Investor Relations at Vale, where he also served as head of the Purchasing, energy, and Decarbonization areas.

Prior to joining Vale, Pimenta was an executive at AES for twelve years, accumulating extensive experience as global finance director, director of planning and strategy, and vice president of performance and services for the company, as well as Vice President of Strategy and M&A at Citigroup in New York.

The manager has a degree in Economics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais and a master’s in Finance and Economy from Fundação Getúlio Vargas.

The shift towards sustainable energy will rely heavily on essential minerals and metals...

Source: Media / Editing by Germán & Co.

Throughout the tapestry of human history, the quest for minerals and metals has woven a rich narrative, beginning with our early education on the epochs of civilization: the Stone Age, Bronze Age, and Iron Age. These eras mark the passage of time and spotlight our ingenious advancements in harnessing the earth's treasures, underscoring our deep-rooted reliance on these natural resources.

In the Stone Age, our ancestors crafted tools from an array of stones—flint, chert, basalt, and sandstone—starting with a simple rock collection before evolving into more sophisticated open-pit and underground mining techniques. The Neolithic flint mines near Mons, Belgium, stand as a testament to this journey, showcasing the shift from surface to underground extraction. These early miners toiled for survival, fashioning essential tools and storage vessels. However, as their skills flourished, they began to explore the artistic and spiritual dimensions of earth materials, discovering that certain minerals could be transformed into vibrant paints.

The stunning cave paintings hidden beneath the Pyrenees, some of the finest remnants of the Paleolithic era, reveal a mastery of composition, perspective, and colour that still captivates us today. The reasons behind these artistic expressions remain mysterious—were they for storytelling, spiritual rituals, or something else entirely? What is clear is that cave painters cherished the vivid hues of ochre minerals, often embarking on long journeys to procure these pigments, which they frequently found near their artistic sanctuaries.

As the Stone Age gracefully transitioned into the Bronze Age, the advent of smelting techniques unlocked new possibilities for working with metals and ores. During this period, they also birthed a flurry of theories regarding the origins of ore deposits, primarily from Greek and Roman thinkers who spun tales steeped in myth and superstition rather than relying on empirical evidence. They envisioned the earth as a living entity, with ores sprouting from metallic exhalations or growing from seeds buried deep within. By the 16th century, alchemists speculated that celestial forces influenced ore formation. This notion was later scrutinized and refined by the German scholar Georgius Agricola in his seminal work, De Re Metallica. Thus, the saga of humanity's relationship with minerals and metals unfolds, a story of survival, creativity, and the relentless pursuit of knowledge.

A renewable energy transition will increase demand for critical minerals and metals, such as lithium, copper, manganese and rare earth elements. The market for key energy transition minerals has already doubled over the past five years, and the total demand for these materials in clean energy technologies is expected to increase between twofold or fourfold by 2040.

While continued growth will require more materials mining, the total amount of extraction needed to build a world that runs entirely on green energy by 2040 is far lower than that needed to maintain a fossil-fuelled energy system. In addition, energy production from fossil fuels needs continuous supply flows for combustion and is non-recyclable, whereas critical materials for energy transition are installed in equipment that can be used for years and then recycled at end of product life. While the renewable energy transition will lead to a decrease in extracted materials, it is vital that we ensure these metals are mined responsibly.

One key metal for which demand will grow more than most others in absolute terms is copper. This is due to its wide range of applications, unique conductive properties and ubiquitous use in electrification technologies. Consequently, annual copper demand is forecast to increase from 25 million tonnes currently to 55.1 million tonnes in 2050 under a 1.5°C scenario. New supplies will be needed to close the demand gap and avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis.

Availability of metals…

The good news is that the required volumes of many metals are geographically well-distributed in known terrestrial reserves. Copper is distributed across Chile (23.6%), Peru (10%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (10%), China (8.6%), the United States (5.9%), and several other countries.

In the short term, the volumes of copper and most metals will come primarily from the same countries that mine them today, as it typically takes 10+ years to open new commercial mining operations. Processing capacity can be geographically diversified much faster than finding new mining locations with sound investment conditions and infrastructure. The US and the EU are implementing new initiatives and standards to promote the development of domestic mining operations and are also establishing strategic partnerships with other countries to build up new supply.

Mining’s social license…

Mining can disrupt large amounts of land, impacting biodiversity and ecosystems. It also uses vast quantities of water and creates tailings. In some cases, there have been catastrophic events that have had a major impact on human and environmental health, including the tailings dam failures at Samarco in 2015 and Brumadinho in 2019, both in Brazil.

In certain instances, both mining and processing can create emissions that can be harmful to the environment and human health. Mining is inherently regional – you can’t change where the deposit is, and the vast majority of mines are located within or adjacent to Indigenous Peoples territories or local communities. Just over 50% of the metals required for renewable energy transition are on or near Indigenous lands.

Health and safety, opportunities for employment and procurement, and protecting the rights of local and Indigenous Peoples are paramount. If these issues aren’t managed properly, they can create pushback by impacted communities.

Mining the responsible way

The first way to do responsible mining is through robust internal management systems, strong corporate governance and a well-established process for dialogue and grievances. The second is by implementing and getting external assurance against recognized standards.

There are a number of standards currently in practice: for example, the Mining Association of Canada’s Towards Sustainable Mining programme, covering biodiversity, climate change, crisis management, mine closure, Indigenous and community relations, among others.

Another standard is the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA), which was developed by a multistakeholder board and is being implemented in South America and Africa. A final example is the CopperMark, an independent assurance framework to promote responsible practices across the copper, molybdenum, nickel and zinc value chains.

While these standards differ in their approach, they all share the same intent of improving the state of mining around the world. Regardless of the evaluation method, one fundamental aspect to responsible mining for the energy transition is transparency and reporting, with a new GRI standard for mining to guide the way. End users of metals can also take action to work towards more responsible practices by increasing supply chain transparency and promoting responsible mining practices.

Germán & Co 10/7/24 Germán & Co 10/7/24

Uncover The —Leitmotiv— of the Tragedy of the Trojan Horse on October 7, 2023.

The term 'no man's land' refers to a contested area that holds significant importance for international trade. The introductory section of this analysis delves into the enduring conflict between Israel and Palestine, a complex issue with historical roots that can be traced back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916. This agreement is often regarded as the inception of a long-standing conflict that has shaped societal dynamics and continues to resonate in contemporary discourse. It is crucial to approach this intricate historical situation with a commitment to objectivity.

Some historians argue that the conflict began on May 14, 1948, coinciding with the withdrawal of the last British troops from Palestine and the subsequent declaration of the State of Israel by Jewish leaders, notably David Ben-Gurion. In contrast, other historians propose alternative starting points, highlighting various events that may be pivotal in understanding the ongoing hostilities and tensions in the region.

The Six-Day War, which occurred on June 5, 1967, represents a significant military confrontation between Israel and Egypt within the broader context of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This conflict culminated in a decisive Israeli victory, resulting in Israel's acquisition of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights.

It is essential to comprehend the underlying causes of the tragic events that transpired during an electronic music concert in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in harm to innocent young individuals. A clear distinction must be made between the historical narratives of the nations involved and the overarching narrative that has fostered a profound sense of betrayal among both populations, a sentiment rooted in the Sykes-Picot Agreement—a controversial treaty negotiated without the consent of the affected nations.

While it is necessary to confront the violent actions perpetrated by Hamas, it is equally important to critically assess the implications of the harsh and retaliatory measures employed by Benjamin Netanyahu's conservative government, to which Hamas has become accustomed. The Israeli Prime Minister expressed visible outrage and shock at the meticulously planned attack by Hamas, which was perceived as a significant failure by Israeli intelligence. In his address to the nation, Netanyahu's tone conveyed a blend of anger and determination to bring the perpetrators to justice, pledging to pursue retribution in a manner consistent with the principle of "an eye for an eye."

Netanyahu's strategic and calculated response to Hamas' clandestine operations raises questions regarding the efficacy and justification of his decisions in the context of Israeli security. The consequences of this escalation have resulted in substantial civilian casualties, particularly among innocent children, who have borne the brunt of this protracted conflict. The military actions undertaken by the Israeli army have been characterized as atrocities by numerous countries, including some key Middle Eastern allies of Israel, prompting widespread condemnation and calls for immediate international intervention to address the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.

It is vital to acknowledge that Hamas possesses a comprehensive understanding of Israel's potential responses to its offensive actions, underscoring their awareness of the complex political dynamics at play. Furthermore, Hamas and its affiliates are cognizant of the prevailing global conditions, shaped by the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global order. These factors pose significant risks to public health and safety, potentially inciting discord, famine, and devastation, and may lead to conflicts reminiscent of those experienced during the interwar period. Historical evidence suggests that significant economic distress often exacerbates interpersonal conflicts.

In the initial examination of the dramatic events of October 7, 2023, the discourse centered on whether Israeli intelligence had failed or if Hamas had executed a calculated maneuver, fully aware of the potential for a severe Israeli response. However, the complexities of this situation reveal a narrative that transcends a binary interpretation. Hamas is acutely aware that the Palestinian people, who have endured persistent hardships and often find themselves marginalized in global politics, are eager to reclaim their voice in this ongoing struggle. Some analysts propose that, faced with limited avenues for influence, Hamas opted for a bold and risky strategy aimed at garnering attention and rallying support for the Palestinian cause throughout the Arab world.

Image by Germán & Co

Who is ultimately responsible?

Are we really looking at a price tag of $100 for each barrel of oil?

Credential in Food and Beverage Tasting…

Historically, the role of the food taster was predominantly assigned to the elite, including kings and rulers, who lived in perpetual apprehension of being poisoned. Although this position may still exist in some contexts, it prompts an inquiry into who will assume the responsibilities of the contemporary equivalent of the food taster, particularly in relation to mobile technology such as pagers and mobile phones.

The Strait of Hormuz and its role in oil prices...
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/the-middle-east-tensions-are-hot-but-oil-markets-are-cool-00182273

In a recent interview with the Spanish newspapper "EL PAÍS," Mr. Fatih Birol, the Director General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), expressed concerns regarding the current state of the oil market, highlighting its considerable instability and the possibility of further deterioration in the near future.

This edition includes the article "The Head of the International Energy Agency: 'The Oil Market is at Risk, and It May Deteriorate Further'" by Ignacio Fariza.

Artwork created by Germán & Co
Two Canals, Two Big Problems—One Global Shipping Mess…
https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/2tdyhe2ydwc5a9w-gwjg6-tgcw3-ceyxz-stany-sgyh7-nr9ny-aplgs-9fryj-zar4b-4g73m-j8zzr-89tlk-flzad-rjstc-nfmaw-6desm-2s2rg-xx7mt-ws7kj-4jgdb
https://energycentral.com/c/og/pompous-or-nefarious-middle-east-conflict-oil-markets-iraq-iran-war-parallels

Foreword:

The blog provided a series of insightful observations and key takeaways, elaborated upon throughout the article.: "The intention to provoke a global conflict should be distinctly apparent... on January 28, 2024, after an extensive year-long investigation into this anthropological case, which carries considerable economic implications."

(1) https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/2tdyhe2ydwc5a9w-gwjg6-tgcw3-ceyxz-stany-sgyh7-nr9ny

'No man's land' is a disputed region crucial for international trade…

The introductory section addressing the conflict between Israel and Palestine examines a multifaceted and persistent issue that can be traced back to the signing of the Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916, as suggested by this blog. marking the start of an ancestral conflict. The historical roots of this deeply ingrained dispute have persisted over generations, shaping the dynamics of society and infusing the present with the weight of the past. It is essential to genuinely acknowledge the objectivity surrounding this complex historical case. Some historians assert that the conflict commenced on 14 May 1948, a date that coincides with the departure of the last British soldiers from Palestine and the subsequent declaration of the State of Israel in Tel Aviv by Jewish leaders, most notably David Ben-Gurion. Conversely, other historians propose alternative starting points for the conflict, emphasizing different events that may hold significance in framing the continuation of hostilities and tensions in the region. The Six-Day War constituted a military engagement between Israel and Egypt, situated within the broader context of the Arab-Israeli conflict. On 5 June 1967, the Israeli military executed a surprise aerial assault on Egypt, culminating in a decisive victory six days later. Consequently, Israel acquired control over the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights.

It is imperative to understand the fundamental causes of the inhumane actions that occurred during an electronic music concert in southern Israel on October 7, 2022, resulting in harm to innocent young individuals. It is crucial to distinguish between the historical events of the nations involved and the broader narrative that has fostered a profound sense of betrayal among both populations. This sentiment can be traced back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement, a controversial historical treaty negotiated without the consent of the nations inhabiting the disputed territory, often referred to as no man's land.

The fact remains that we need to confront the violent actions of Hamas. At the same time, we must carefully consider the impact of Benjamin Netanyahu's extremely conservative government's harsh and retaliatory tactics, to which Hamas was already profoundly accustomed.

The Israeli Prime Minister was visibly enraged and stunned by the treacherous and carefully planned poison attack orchestrated by Hamas. The attack, designed to create chaos reminiscent of a Trojan horse, was deemed a significant failure by the Israeli intelligence establishment. As the leader addressed the nation, his voice reflected a mix of anger and determination to bring those responsible to justice. He vowed to pursue "an eye for an eye" and "a tooth for a tooth"” showing an unwavering commitment to holding the perpetrators accountable for their actions. Amidst the solemn atmosphere, the prime minister also emphasized the need for unity and resilience among the citizens, calling for solidarity in the face of such cowardly acts of violence.

Netanyahu meticulously, ruthlessly, and controversially executed a strategic and calculated scheme against Hamas' secret resources, perhaps for valid and pressing reasons stemming from the threat to Israeli security. The efficacy and justification of Benjamin Netanyahu's decisions in addressing the ongoing threats posed by Hamas will only become apparent over time. However, this escalation has resulted in significant civilian casualties, particularly among innocent children, who have disproportionately endured the consequences of this unrelenting conflict and have suffered immensely as a result. However, this provocation has resulted in enormous casualties in the civilian population, particularly innocent children, who have endured immense suffering as a result of these ongoing conflicts. The military actions by the Israeli army have been labelled as atrocities by many countries, including some influential Middle Eastern allies to the sovereignty of the state of Israel. This has led to widespread condemnation and calls for immediate intervention from the international community to address the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.

It is imperative to recognize that Hamas possesses a thorough understanding of Israel's likely responses to any offensive actions, highlighting the importance of their awareness of the potential consequences of their decisions within the complex political dynamics of the region. Additionally, Hamas and its affiliates are cognizant of the prevailing global conditions, which have been influenced by the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global order. These factors pose significant risks to public health and safety, with the potential to incite discord, famine, and devastation, and may lead to conflicts reminiscent of those experienced during the interwar period. Historical evidence indicates that substantial economic distress frequently intensifies interpersonal conflicts among individuals.

The Lord of...

In the initial exploration of the dramatic events that unfolded on October 7, 2023, the focus was on whether Israeli intelligence had dropped the ball or if Hamas had orchestrated a daring and calculated move, fully aware of the potential for a fierce Israeli backlash. Yet, the intricacies of this scenario weave a tale far more complex than a simple yes or no. Hamas understands all too well that the Palestinian people, who have faced relentless hardships and often find themselves forgotten by global politics, are eager to reclaim their voice in this ongoing battle. Some experts suggest that, with their options for influence severely limited, Hamas opted for a bold and risky approach, aiming to capture attention and rally support for the Palestinian cause across the Arab world.

A Trap on Tehran...

On July 31, 2024, Tehran, the political centre of Iran, witnessed a notable and dramatic sequence of events characterized by the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas. (This incident occurred approximately two and a half months after the fatal helicopter crash that resulted in the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.) This high-stakes operation is widely believed to be the strategic execution of Israeli intelligence and took place in a military-operated guesthouse where Haniyeh was residing following the grand inauguration celebration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The city was engulfed in the shocking news of this unexpected assassination, which cast a significant and ominous shadow of conspiracy over the political landscape. This incident has raised critical inquiries regarding the extensive infiltration of Israeli intelligence within the Arab world, particularly in relation to influential organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself.

The recent targeted killing of Haniyeh has sparked widespread unease, particularly within the Iranian intelligence community. The Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, has been likened to an undercover operation straight out of a James Bond movie, and its actions have dealt a severe setback to the Iranian military establishment.

However, considering the historical context of the Jewish presence in Persia, such dramatic events are only partially unexpected. Judaism boasts a remarkably rich and multifaceted history in Iran, tracing back to biblical times, with pertinent references found in the ancient texts of Isaiah, Daniel, Ezra, Nehemiah, Esther, and Chronicles that highlight the Jewish experience and contributions in Persia. Today, the largest population of Persian Jews, many of whom emigrated from Iran over the years, resides in Israel, with approximately 75,000 individuals recorded in 1993, which includes those from subsequent generations that followed. Due to various factors such as assimilation, obtaining an accurate current figure for this population is complex.

The integration of Persian Jews into Israel and the enduring presence of thousands in Iran gives Mossad a significant advantage. It's widely recognized that the Israeli Intelligence Agency has effectively embedded operatives within Iran, even reaching into the military echelons. Without such strong and deeply intertwined ties, the recent elimination of the Hamas leader at the end of July last year would have been nearly impossible to achieve, highlighting the complexities involved in such significant military actions.

Mossad's pager operation: Inside Israel's penetration of Hezbollah…

In the most recent edition of The Washington Post, delve into the intricate complexities surrounding Israel's strategic operations aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's communication networks is presented. Such actions may jeopardize numerous operatives, rendering them susceptible to potential harm or worse outcomes.

The evolution of communication technology is exemplified by the transition from traditional pagers, which once prompted urgent responses to perceived calls, to their current manifestation as lethal explosive devices—a transformation that evokes a sense of unease. Furthermore, the latent threats associated with contemporary mobile phones cannot be overlooked. This scenario illustrates the precarious condition of our global landscape and the disconcerting transformations it has experienced in recent years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/05/israel-mossad-hezbollah-pagers-nasrallah/?nid=top_pb_signin&arcId=3PJTJ3E5UZEIXLNZB647BF5IV4&account_location=ONSITE_HEADER_ARTICLE

Finally…

The question raised by the title of this post may elicit a seemingly straightforward answer: the attack that occurred on October 7, 2023, is widely acknowledged. However, the ramifications of this event are complex and reveal the varied perspectives emerging from different regions of Europe. Contemporary discussions suggest that certain individuals or entities may derive substantial benefits from the chaos of war. Unfortunately, this troubling notion may represent a harsh reality that many are reluctant to confront.

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/emmanuel-macrons-call-to-halt-arms-supply-to-israel-for-use-in-gaza-triggers-fiery-response-from-benjamin-netanyahu/news-story/92af6b5172deb354ae18f4a715e3dba0

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

ttps://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1843057227000844585

Mr. Fatih Birol serves as the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. Sorce: El País

The head of the International Energy Agency: "The oil market is at risk, and it can get worse."

Fatih Birol warns of the "serious bottleneck" that would imply the closure of the Strait of Ormuz, but it removes the ghost of the 100 dollars per barrel

The oil market had been in a strange state for weeks. After the brutal blow of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all eyes were on a demand that was - and still is - showing clear signs of weakness. To everyone's surprise, not even the powder keg in the Middle East was putting a dent in prices. That all changed on Tuesday, with the attack on Israel by Iran, the seventh-largest producer and holder of the world's third-largest reserves, which has sent prices soaring and sowed an uneasy sense of unease. 'The situation of the oil market is risky, and could become even riskier,' warns the director general of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, in conversation with EL PAÍS.

The head of the energy arm of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, the rich countries' think tank) sees two dangers on the immediate horizon. The first is that the war could escalate and involve other major producers in a vital energy region. 'That's the big unknown, what I don't know and I don't think anyone knows: whether, in the coming days or weeks, other countries will be directly affected...', he says over the phone. Five of the world's ten largest oil producers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait) are in the Middle East. And three (Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) are major gas powers.

The second risk is that the conflict will 'end up affecting a strait through which a significant amount of oil flows'. A clear (albeit indirect) reference to Hormuz is the only possible link between the Persian and Oman Gulfs, controlled by Tehran and through whose waters one out of every five barrels of crude oil that move through every day in the world flows. With a daily flow of a thousand tankers, a potential closure by Iran would be a significant blow to prices.

'It is difficult to quantify the impact of the closure of Hormuz, but it would create a serious bottleneck. Especially if it is total,' warns Birol (Ankara, 66). An Israeli airstrike on Iran's oil infrastructure, a plausible option, seems more likely. 'I don't want to speculate on the implications of an attack that we don't know if it will happen,' the head of the Paris-based agency shirks. 'But if it does happen, we would see a further increase in volatility. In silver, if Hormuz closes, prices will rise vertically. The only question is how far.

Mitigating factors:

In less than a week, a barrel of Brent, the European benchmark, has risen from just 70 dollars to nearly 80 dollars. This is a substantial rise, but also significantly less than that recorded in the spring and summer of 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed the biggest energy crisis in Europe's history by invading Ukraine.

Then, the gas price quintupled in the blink of an eye, and oil reached almost 130 dollars. Far, far from today's levels. 'At the moment, global demand is quite weak and will peak before 2030. Thanks to that, prices are not rising any further,' Birol explains.

2024, according to his calculations, consumption will grow by just one million barrels per day, pushed down by weak economic growth in Europe and China and by the increasing electrification of transport. The IEA's forecast increase is significantly lower than most analysts, and the once all-powerful OPEC cartel (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a colossus that has been shrinking over the years. 'We are in a relatively comfortable market situation, with a lot of supply and less demand,' argues Birol.

A muted rose:

A radical change in the market structure has also contributed to the recent muted price rise. 'An increasingly substantial amount of oil is coming from the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana: just what these countries are increasing their production is enough to cover the new demand. His numbers also point to an idle (spare) capacity of around five million barrels per day in several OPEC countries, 'especially in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—a robust safety cushion to cope with possible disruptions in the future.

Even in the worst-case scenario of the closure of Hormuz - through which the bulk of Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati oil and gas travels to Europe - Birol sees little likelihood of a cataclysm comparable to that caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Turkish economist, who is about to celebrate a decade at the helm of the IEA, denies the major: 'I wouldn't say so much: at that time, Russia was the world's leading oil exporter... I wouldn't put it on the same scale. He also rules out $100 a barrel, at least in the short term: 'Barring a major incident, I don't think we will see those figures... Unlike in the past, this new geopolitical situation comes when the market is far from tense. A slackness that, he says, makes 'an important difference' compared to 2022.

Germán & Co 9/23/24 Germán & Co 9/23/24

Impact of Regulatory Framework on Innovations in Electrical Energy Storage…

Battery Storage - a global enabler of the Energy Transition 2022...

The year 2021 marked yet another record-setting period for renewable energy, despite ongoing disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the escalating costs of raw materials globally. In retrospect, we may come to regard 2021 as a pivotal moment in the advent of the energy storage decade. The significant reductions in costs associated with wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and energy storage technologies have greatly influenced the pace of renewable energy deployment within global power systems. Solar PV and onshore wind have emerged as the most economical sources of new energy generation for approximately two-thirds of the global population. As the proportion of variable renewable energy sources rises in comparison to traditional fossil fuel generation, the role of energy storage becomes increasingly critical for ensuring grid resilience and flexibility. Furthermore, the extensive deployment of wind and solar generation anticipated over the next decade will necessitate the widespread adoption of energy storage solutions as a balancing asset.

Workart by Germán & Co

Battery storage is the —Holy Grail— of the modern electrical landscape, serving as a vital partner in harnessing and expanding renewable energy sources…

Numerous nations, including China, Germany and India, are actively pursuing initiatives to promote energy storage systems. Nevertheless, more suitable regulatory frameworks and effective pricing signals are needed to ensure the progress of energy storage solutions. These two factors widen the gap between the supply and demand for various energy technologies.

At the same time, increasing electricity demand has resulted in an overproduction of energy discharges, leading to the wastage of renewable energy. This issue is especially acute during midday when the gap between the deployment of photovoltaic systems and other energy technologies exacerbates the situation. As a result, electricity prices tend to fall during times of high photovoltaic generation.

Energy storage has been recognized as a critical technology for innovation. However, under existing regulatory frameworks, a swiftly evolving array of storage technologies may struggle to compete with traditional generators in delivering electricity system services, potentially stifling innovation. Barriers to investment, particularly regulatory obstacles, hinder the implementation of energy storage technologies in electricity markets.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1838112772682375367

The primary regulatory obstacle is the existing classification of energy storage as a “generation asset”. Furthermore, the merit order framework of balancing and ancillary markets hampers the constraints of capacity technologies to recoup their high comparative cost, while markets penalize expenditures.

Current initiatives include implementing flexible connection agreements, advancing enhanced frequency responses and aggregating fast reserve services.

To eliminate the identified barriers, one must establish a market structure that recognizes the value of the flexibility provided by storage, perceiving it as an imperative complement to, rather than a competitor with, network and generation assets.

In the past, energy storage in the electricity system has focused mainly on the raw materials used for generating electricity, such as coal and natural gas. Flexible generation capacity has been used to meet high demands in certain periods. With the growing use of renewable energy sources that depend on the weather and inflexible nuclear power plants in the electricity generation market, there are expected to be more frequent instances of excess supply during times of low demand.

Electrical energy storage technologies can capture and utilize this surplus energy to meet demand peaks, thereby enhancing stability and fortifying the resilience of low-carbon electricity systems. Energy storage's unique characteristic lies in its ability to decouple electricity generation from consumption, which facilitates improved grid management, optimizes the utilization of existing resources and supports the integration of large-scale renewable energy sources.

(1) Energy storage is considered a crucial technology for the future. The UK government has committed to a research and innovation programme in this field. Practical innovation is essential to lower the costs of technology and allow energy storage to be competitive with other electricity generation methods in the market.

Energy storage systems compete with other generation sources to sell electricity in various markets. However, the high capital costs and regulatory barriers associated with energy storage render it uncompetitive in most markets. The current regulatory framework surrounding the definition of energy storage is one of the significant barriers regarding network operators' ownership and operation of storage systems, especially in the issues associated with balancing ancillary services and capacity markets. In conclusion, governmental authorities in several countries are exploring alternatives to enhance the implementation of energy storage through modifications to existing regulatory frameworks.

Recalling the developments in the electrical market prior to the 1990s is essential, most electricity companies were state-owned, and pricing was heavily regulated. Following the liberalization of OECD member countries, large consumers procured electricity via contracts, while other generation methods were regulated by market mechanisms. The dynamics of pricing were influenced by high storage and generation costs, variable demand, and the necessity for a dependable system.

Additionally, energy storage systems have the potential to provide services in various ancillary markets, such as fast reserve and grid stability services, where they may become increasingly competitive in the near future. Furthermore, energy storage is anticipated to play a critical role in the wholesale energy market over the long term, with aggregators expected to facilitate the integration of smaller-scale technologies.

Again and again, energy storage technologies have the potential to make significant contributions throughout the electricity system. This includes their applications for generation, where they can assist with balancing and providing reserve power; in transmission, where they can aid in frequency control and defer investment; in distribution, where they can facilitate voltage control and support capacity; and at the end-user level, where they can enable peak shaving and contribute to cost reduction and management.

It is therefore, that impostargable, modifications to electricity markets aimed at promoting energy storage are intended to achieve two primary objectives: (i) stimulate innovation that will lead to a reduction in prices in the short term and (ii) facilitate optimal deployment that accurately reflects the increasing value of energy storage within the system over the long term. A more comprehensive understanding of the prospective value of energy storage to the broader energy system is essential.

(1) https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/-/media/%EF%AC%81les/insight/publications/2022/01/battery-storage-a-global-enabler-of-the-energy-transition.pdf

Source: Large-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) / bne IntelliNews

Vietnam explores battery energy storage systems to strengthen renewable energy sector

IntelliNews by BNO - Bangkok Office, September 23, 2024

As Vietnam’s renewable energy sector expands rapidly, experts are advocating for the adoption of battery energy storage systems (BESS) to enhance energy security and stabilise the national grid, as reported by Tuoi Tre News.

Pham Dang An, deputy general director of Vu Phong Energy Group, stated that BESS is crucial for optimising renewable energy use and ensuring a reliable electricity supply. He urged the government to establish policies that support financial and technical standards for energy storage development. Sunita Dubey, regional lead at the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, highlighted the need for Vietnam to adapt its energy strategies as global companies increasingly commit to renewable energy.

She noted that a pilot project integrating BESS into the national grid is underway, targeting a storage capacity of 300 MW by 2030. Experts agree that implementing BESS will enhance grid flexibility, reduce carbon emissions, and lower electricity costs. This strategic move could position Vietnam as a leader in the renewable energy sector, aligning with global trends toward sustainable energy solutions. The successful integration of BESS is seen as a vital step in ensuring a reliable and sustainable energy future for the country.

Germán & Co 9/8/24 Germán & Co 9/8/24

The Fascinating Journey of Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic!

Embarking on an Exciting Adventure with Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic!

In a groundbreaking collaboration, Energas has teamed up with AES Dominicana and its affiliate Enadom to unveil a remarkable milestone that is set to transform the energy landscape and bolster the financial realm of the Dominican Republic.

This dynamic alliance, driven by a shared vision for a greener tomorrow, is on a mission to reshape the nation’s energy framework. With a focus on embedding sustainable practices deep within the power grid, they are fortifying its resilience and strength. The Dominican Republic's historical dependence on oil is being challenged by these passionate energy pioneers. Together, they are rallying behind Energía Natural Dominicana (EnaDom) to lead a natural gas revolution, ushering in a new era characterized by sustainability, reliability, and affordability.

Image by EnaDom

Energas, in collaboration with AES Dominicana and its subsidiary Enadom, has announced a significant achievement poised to revolutionize the energy sector and strengthen the financial industry of the Dominican Republic...

Keep in mind…

The addition of a second tank, boasting a storage capacity of 120,000 cubic meters, is set to bolster the Dominican Republic's natural gas supply by roughly 1,000 megawatts. Image credit goes to Enandom.

When the Russian invasion of Ukraine commenced in February 2022, (1) Europe had an unbelievable—modest— fleet of liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification facilities, with a total capacity of approximately 160 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. It is true that at that time, Europe's LNG infrastructure was somewhat constrained.

Following the supply crisis, the demand for natural gas in the European Union—a major force in the global energy market with a strong reliance on natural gas, constituting about 25% of its energy mix—has soared. In 2021, the EU's natural gas demand jumped to 412 billion cubic meters, marking a 4% increase from the previous year. Although pipeline gas remains predominant in imports, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is on the rise, securing 24% of the market share by 2024. Currently, 11 EU Member States have embraced LNG, with a total annual regasification capacity of 160 billion cubic meters. In response to the Ukraine crisis, Europe has accelerated over 20 natural gas projects to reduce its reliance on Russian gas. Germany is notably proactive, constructing LNG import terminals, and other countries are also considering LNG as a vital part of their strategies to become independent from Russian gas.

(1) https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54780

Andrés Gluski, President and CEO of The AES Corporation, expressed his views, stating, "I feel very confident in saying that we need natural gas for the next 20 years." He continued, "What we can begin to do today is start to blend it with green hydrogen."

`https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/23/energy-ceo-thinks-natural-gas-will-be-around-for-years-to-come-.html?msockid=2531bfe926ea63de2e65ad2f2781622d`

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1832786182683414879

AES Andrés' liquefied natural gas regasification plan, image provided by AES Dominicana.

The Incredible Adventure of Natural Gas in the Dominican Republic!

Enadom has unveiled a groundbreaking milestone that promises to transform the energy landscape and boost the financial realm of the Dominican Republic.

Yesterday, Energas announced a significant development in the Dominican Republic's energy and financial sectors. We successfully completed a USD 300 million bond issuance through our joint venture, ENADOM, in collaboration with AES Dominicana. This achievement, approved by the Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores, comes with a DOAA rating and assets supporting 800 MW of natural gas. The investment's substantial impact on the Dominican Republic's energy and financial markets is clear. The proceeds from this bond issuance will be instrumental in financing essential expansions, a crucial step towards ensuring a cleaner and more competitive energy supply for the future.

The company's rebranding as Energas is not just a name change. It's a significant development that underscores our unwavering commitment to the energy sector and clear vision for a sustainable and efficient future.

This achievement signifies progress towards a more sustainable future and offers substantial financial advantages. We project savings exceeding one billion dollars over the next decade from eliminating costly oil derivatives from the national energy system.

“Our efforts have substantially reduced carbon dioxide emissions, with a decrease of 460,000 metric tons annually. This decrease translates to a significant reduction in our ecological footprint, a fact that we can all take pride in and advocate for, as stated by Mr. Rolando González Bunster, President of the Board of Directors of Energas…

**Mr. Rolando González Bunster, President of the Board of Directors of Energas...**

Mr. González Bunster has reaffirmed our commitment to sustainable energy by announcing plans to construct a fourth-generation unit will enhance our energy supply. This commitment drives us to continually seek new investment opportunities that contribute to developing our markets, aligning with our vision to produce reliable, affordable, and progressively cleaner energy.

While this historical resonance might seem like a routine business affair, it signifies a profound transformation across various dimensions.

Natural gas is a fuel that sparks passionate advocacy and heated discussions in today's world, and unfortunately is a to engine conflicts for its massive demand while also being seen as a crucial player in the transition to a more sustainable energy future over the coming decades. To transform the gas into a liquid, it must undergo a chilling metamorphosis, cooled to a bone-numbing 160°C, making transportation possible.

Well, the introduction of natural gas into the Dominican Republic began over twenty years ago with the efforts of AES Dominicana took a significant step by entrusting CB&I with a comprehensive, fixed-price contract for the LNG import terminal’s engineering, procurement, and construction. The ambitious project featured a colossal 160,000 m3 LNG storage tank and three high capacity unloading arms, each capable of swiftly offloading LNG vessels at an impressive rate of 10,000 m3 per hour. The terminal plays a crucial role in delivering natural gas to a variety of customers in the industrial, transportation, and power sectors, including the nearby AES Andres power station and the DPP Los Mina power station, which is operated by Dominican Power Partners and located just 34 km to the west.

Yes, twenty years ago…

The Dominican Republic stands as a shining example on the global stage for its integration of natural gas into the electricity sector.

Why?

The onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 caught Europe with a relatively small number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification facilities, with a total capacity of approximately 160 billion cubic meters per year. It is well acknowledged that at that time, Europe's LNG infrastructure was not as developed. Looking back over the two decades since the creation of the AES Andrés LNG terminal and regasification projects in the Dominican Republic, it prompts reflection on the type of foresight and innovation that will define the energy sector's future in a constantly changing world.

A glimpse into the future of the nation...

Often, our memory is short...

Image…

“Imagine a world where the skies gift us with electrical rainfall, a phenomenon where energy cascades from the heavens, promising to power our dreams and innovations. This is not just a flight of fancy, but a vision of a future where renewable energy is as natural and abundant as the rain that nourishes our earth. In this blog entry, we'll explore the exciting possibilities of harnessing the power of electrical storms, turning the might of nature into a sustainable source that could light up our cities and homes, and spark a revolution in how we think about and use energy. Join us on this electrifying journey as we delve into the potential of electrical rainfall and its role in powering a brighter, cleaner future. Imagine if we could store all this wonderful energy...

“Ojalá Que Llueva Café” the song by Dominican songwriter Juan Luis Guerra is about the desire for a better life in the countryside. The song focuses on the metaphor of rain, specifically the rain of coffee, which alleviates the drought and hardships of rural life and provides abundant food and joy. Guerra’s lyrics depict a heavenly landscape of clouds seeding the fields with coffee and other crops such as cassava, tea, white cheese, watercress, honey, wheat, and a variety of trees. It describes people reaping the land’s bounty, celebrating, and singing together. The song is an ode to the impoverished rural areas of the Caribbean, where most of Guerra’s music is rooted, and an anthem of hope for a better life. Besides, access to electricity is vital. Indeed, electricity is no longer a luxury; rather, it’s a fundamental right. It powers our homes, fuels progress, and connects us globally. Just as coffee rain provides sustenance, electricity brings light, warmth, and opportunity. It’s a lifeline for rural communities, bridging gaps and enabling growth.

Energas and AES Join Forces to Kick the Dominican Republic's Oil Habit

The Power of Partnership is on a quest to forge a greener future in the Dominican Republic. United by the common goal of transforming the country's energy matrix, they strive to integrate sustainable practices into the power grid's very core, reinforcing its strength and resilience. The Dominican Republic's long-standing reliance on oil is being challenged by these dedicated energy partners. Together, they rally behind Energía Natural Dominicana (EnaDom) to spearhead an energy revolution with natural gas, heralding an era that promises sustainability, reliability, and affordability.

Energas has established itself as a pivotal force in the Dominican Republic's energy sector, managing the 300 MW capacity of the San Pedro de Macoris Electricity Company (CESPM) located in the country's eastern region. As a reliable source of energy for years, Energas has illuminated countless lives while fostering community development via economic and social programs. Looking to the future, Energas is poised to embark on the next chapter of its sustainable energy narrative by converting its CESPM facility from diesel to natural gas-powered generation.

The partnership between Energas and AES is driven by a mutual commitment to guide the Dominican Republic towards a sustainable future, transitioning from traditional energy sources to natural gas. Energas is a key player in the country's power generation sector and is keen to adopt sustainable methods that will propel the nation's energy shift. AES Dominicana has been pivotal in introducing natural gas to the area, saving consumers over half a billion dollars and reducing CO2 emissions by four million tonnes each year.

Germán & Co 9/6/24 Germán & Co 9/6/24

Solar Farms Boast A Superpower Beyond Generating Clean Energy...

Solar farms deliver more than clean energy...

If elected in November, former President Trump could reverse President Biden's climate legislation, potentially jeopardizing $488 billion in U.S. investments and the future of renewable energy.

In a recent speech to Wall Street executives, Donald Trump outlined an economic strategy focused on lower taxes, increased tariffs, and minimal regulations, though some proposals were met with scepticism. At the New York Economic Club, he reiterated his commitment to reducing corporate regulations, promoting domestic production, and imposing high tariffs on companies that outsource jobs—promises of lower taxes, less regulation, and reduced energy costs.

Solar and wind energy expansion has been significant but varies by region and sector.

In 2023, wind and solar energy became the leading global energy sources, but rising energy demand also increased coal and oil consumption, contributing to higher carbon dioxide emissions.

Regional Disparities: Solar and wind energy are growing globally, with China's 2023 solar photovoltaic capacity matching the total added by the rest of the world in 2022. However, other regions need help with policy uncertainty, insufficient grid investment, and complex administrative procedures.

By October 2023, solar energy installations in Europe matched last year's total, while wind energy growth lagged, creating an imbalance in renewable energy development.

Achieving global renewable energy targets, like tripling capacity by 2030, requires substantial policy support and investment. Addressing policy delays, grid infrastructure challenges, financial obstacles, and the inclusion of energy storage technology in the new electrical system is crucial.

The New York Times recently highlighted solar energy's environmental benefits.

Artwork by Germán & Co

“Mr.Trump Says Clean Energy Is a Scam. That Could Benefit China, Experts Say…

President Biden’s landmark climate law could be repealed by a Trump administration. Economists said that would jeopardize $488 billion in American investments.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/26/climate/trump-clean-energy-china.html

“Donald Trump laid out a sweeping economic vision of lower taxes, higher tariffs and light-touch regulation in an address to executives on Wall Street, where some of his plans have been greeted with skepticism.

In the speech before the Economic Club of New York on Thursday, the former president doubled down on proposals to slash rules on companies, reward those that keep production in the U.S., and impose punishing tariffs on any business that moves jobs or manufacturing overseas.

“I am promising low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates, secure borders, low low low crime and surging incomes for citizens of every race, religion, color and creed,” Trump said in the more than hour-long talk. “My plan will rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices and reignite explosive economic growth.”.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/05/trump-economy-00177543

Well, the growth of solar and wind energy has been substantial but has varied widely across different regions and sectors. Below are some key points:

Global Trends: The year 2023 was a landmark year as wind and solar energy surpassed all other sources in the global energy mix for the first time. Nonetheless, the surge in overall energy demand led to increased coal and oil consumption, resulting in a rise in global carbon dioxide emissions.

Regional Disparities: The global expansion of solar and wind energy is significant, with China adding a remarkable amount of solar photovoltaic capacity in 2023, matching the rest of the world's total from 2022. However, other regions face challenges due to policy uncertainties, insufficient investment in grid infrastructure, and complex administrative processes.

Current Situation in Europe: In October 2023, Europe's solar energy installations hit a record, equaling the total installations of the previous year. In contrast, the growth of wind energy has been slower, causing an imbalanced progress in renewable energy sources.

Achieving global renewable energy targets, such as tripling renewable capacity by 2030, necessitates considerable policy support and investment. It is essential to address policy delays, grid infrastructure inadequacies, and financial obstacles in developing countries.

The uneven growth underscores the critical need for joint efforts to ensure that solar and wind energy make an effective contribution to a sustainable energy future.

Today, The New York Times featured an insightful article detailing the numerous environmental benefits of solar energy, emphasizing the pressing need for enhancements in the electrical grid and underscoring the pivotal role of battery storage technology in facilitating the transition to new energy systems.

**Simply "MAXIMO," The Pharaoh Of The Sun...**

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1832025924889456996

AES Dominicana's BAYASOL is a 58 MW photovoltaic plant composed of fixed-structure monocrystalline modules, with an annual generation capacity of 99,100 MWh, situated in Matanzas, Dominican Republic. Image courtesy of AES Dominicana.

Solar Farms Have a Superpower Beyond Clean Energy…

The sites fight climate change and can help with another global crisis: the collapse of nature. But so far, efforts to nurture wildlife habitat have been spotty…

The New York Times article, written by Catrin Einhorn on September 5, 2024, details her visits to seven solar sites across California and Minnesota.

It’s not your average solar farm.

The glassy panels stand in a meadow. Wildflowers sway in the breeze, bursts of purple, pink, yellow, orange and white among native grasses. A monarch butterfly flits from one blossom to the next. Dragonflies zip, bees hum and goldfinches trill.

As solar projects unfurl across the United States, sites like this one in Ramsey, Minn., stand out because they offer a way to fight climate change while also tackling another ecological crisis: a global biodiversity collapse, driven in large part by habitat loss.

The sun’s clean energy is a powerful weapon in the battle against climate change. But the sites that capture that energy take up land that wildlife needs to survive and thrive. Solar farms could blanket millions of acres in the United States over the coming decades.

So developers, operators, biologists and environmentalists are teaming up with an innovative strategy.

“We have to address both challenges at the same exact time,” said Rebecca Hernandez, a professor of ecology at the University of California, Davis, whose research focuses on how to do just that.

Insects, those small animals that play a mighty role in supporting life on Earth, are facing alarming declines. Solar farms can offer them food and shelter by providing a diverse mix of native plants.

Such plants can also decrease erosion, nourish the soil and store planet-warming carbon. They can also attract insects that improve pollination of nearby crops.

Pollinator-friendly solar can pay off for business, too, potentially saving money and giving projects an edge for approval at a time when communities are increasingly wary of vast solar farms. Developers are taking note.

But there’s a broad spectrum of pollinator friendliness and little agreement on what efforts should count. Standards are often nonexistent. Some big projects are limiting pollinator habitat to tiny corners of their sites. Ecological value varies widely.

Communities may not understand the difference, and corporate marketing may exaggerate. That’s led to accusations of greenwashing.

Pollinator habitat on solar farms is “a serious work in progress,” said Scott Black, executive director of the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation, a nonprofit group that is working on an effort to bring some clarity by certifying solar sites.

“It’s not fair if some people are truly stepping up to do this right and another company is barely doing anything and saying they’re pollinator friendly,” he said.

‘If you build it, will they come?’

A study released last year revealed that the number of insects had tripled over a five-year period on experimental plots at two solar sites in Minnesota. Image by Germán & Co.

On a recent morning at the solar meadow in Ramsey, it was time to count insects.

Among the rows of panels at the 18-acre site, Lee Walston, a landscape ecologist at Argonne National Laboratory, found plastic flags marking one of his research tracts. He set off with two students through plants that brushed above their knees, eyes scanning below.

“There’s a sweat bee,” Mr. Walston said, pointing to a bee that glistened metallic green.

“I’ve got a moth and two hoverflies,” one of the students said. The other recorded observations.

In solar pollinator habitat, Minnesota was an early leader among states. Since 2017, funded by the Department of Energy, Mr. Walston has been studying sites there and throughout the Midwest.

“If you build it, will they come?” he asks in his research. So far the answer is a resounding yes, if you grow the right plants.

In a study published late last year, his team found that insect abundance had tripled over five years on test plots at two other Minnesota solar sites. The abundance of native bees grew twentyfold.

Native plants draw a variety of pollinators. Image by Germán & Co.

The results come amid a global decline of wildlife that leaders are struggling to address. Some of the most well-known insect species are in trouble: Later this year, the federal government is expected to rule on whether to place monarch butterflies on the Endangered Species List. North American birds, for their part, are down almost 30 percent since 1970.

But at this site, called Anoka County Solar, acoustic monitoring has documented 73 species of birds, presumably attracted by the buffet of seeds and insects. Some build nests in the structures supporting the panels.

Mammals are showing up, too. Mr. Walston checked a trail camera before leaving, hoping to discover the occupant of a remarkably large burrow: A fox, he thought, or a badger. No luck.

(It’s trickier to make solar sites friendly to large wild animals, in part because developers are nervous to let them near expensive infrastructure, but efforts are underway there, too.)

What makes this meadow possible is the height of the panels. A prairie restoration firm had told ENGIE, the owner and developer, that taller panels would allow for a sharp increase in native vegetation species, providing much more ecological diversity, said John Gantner, the director of engineering and delivery for ENGIE’s smaller-scale sites.

The price of the additional steel and the native seeds were “insignificant to the overall project cost,” Mr. Gantner said. Over the life of the project, ENGIE has found, pollinator friendly landscaping actually saves money because it needs far less mowing.

“We’ve calculated and ran the numbers and there’s significant savings,” Mr. Gantner said.

But many other projects, especially big utility-scale sites, avoid the taller panels. Margins are razor tight, developers say, and the higher costs up front feel too risky or even insurmountable.

That limits the options for landscapers.

“When I sit down and do a utility-scale solar project seed mixture, and I look in my toolbox, it’s like I have a rusty screwdriver and a roll of duct tape,” said Peter Berthelsen, a wildlife biologist who runs a company that specializes in creating habitat for solar projects.

He scours his sites for any patch of land that doesn’t have panels. In those areas, which he said often encompass 10 or 20 percent of a given site, he plants a native pollinator mix of at least 40 species.

Under the panels, he and others often turn to Dutch white clover. While that provides some nectar for native insects like bumblebees, it’s considered better forage for honeybees, an introduced agricultural species. (Honeybees pollinate plants and make a delicious food for people, but ecologists generally don’t view them as wildlife in need of conservation.)

The more plant diversity allowed under the panels, Mr. Berthelsen said, the more environmental benefits will follow. Still, he cautioned, it’s important to “not let the pursuit of perfection be the enemy of doing something good.”

In measuring ecological values, the starting point is fundamental, scientists say. Replacing a field of row crops with solar panels and clover would provide a net benefit for pollinators, even without a mix of native species. On the other hand, no amount of high-quality seeding will match the ecological value of an intact ecosystem, especially in places where solar panels would require the removal of trees or shrubs.

Nationwide, it’s unclear what portion of solar farms include any kind of pollinator habitat. The federal project that Mr. Walston is part of has a running rough count of just under 24,000 acres. That’s compared with about 600,000 acres of currently operating large-scale sites across the country, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, with a sharp increase expected over the next couple decades.

Then there’s the question of developers delivering on their commitments.

‘Not enough plants here’

Four years ago, a project was in development outside Sacramento. Described as “a pollinator friendly solar farm,” even its name signaled ecological beauty: Wildflower Solar. “Fostering biodiversity and boosting crop yields for the community,” a brochure read.

Developed by Lightsource BP, which is co-owned by the oil and gas giant, one aspect of the project raised questions from the beginning: Diverse pollinator vegetation was restricted to a garden on roughly 1.5 acres of the 67 acre site in an area underneath transmission lines.

Throughout the panels, the company said it would use a seed mix of five native grasses and a smaller amount of native clover. That’s better than turfgrass, scientists say, but it doesn’t come close to the benefits from a more diverse assemblage. At the time, Lightsource BP defended its decision to a reporter for Inside Climate News, claiming that the entire site would be pollinator friendly.

Dr. Hernandez of U.C. Davis wished the project was going further. But she was pleased about one thing: a pledge to plant more than 200 native trees and shrubs along the perimeter, on the edge of a rural neighborhood. The plantings would not only create a more attractive view for the community, but also a corridor of habitat for wildlife.

But when she drove by last year, Dr. Hernandez said, she didn’t see any plantings.

In May, Dr. Hernandez accompanied me to Wildflower. The 200 trees and shrubs, promised both in planning documents submitted to the county and in marketing materials, were nowhere to be seen. Instead, the area was overgrown with invasive grasses and noxious weeds like yellow star thistle, which the state has spent millions trying to eradicate. After tromping through shoulder-high, dried-out vegetation, we found the remnants of a few plantings underneath.

“There’s not enough plants here,” Dr. Hernandez said. “And there’s no vegetation management.”

In interviews and follow-up emails, representatives for Lightsource BP said the trees and shrubs had been planted around fall 2020 and blamed drought for their demise. They said they had instructed their landscaping contractor “to solicit replacement plantings and a robust, multiyear care plan for the landscaping trees and shrubs.” They did not say why the problems had not been addressed earlier.

Alyssa Edwards, who leads environmental affairs and governmental relations for Lightsource BP, said the company was a leader in the industry when it came to biodiversity.

“It really is in our ethos, and it’s embedded into the way we develop, construct and operate projects,” Ms. Edwards said. The company’s Facebook page regularly posts about its commitment to biodiversity. But she was clear: “We do not raise our panels to accommodate pollinators.”

At least 15 states have some kind of pollinator scorecard, meant to guard against greenwashing by awarding points for various ecologically valuable features. States do not require certification, but in many cases a project must achieve a certain score to declare itself pollinator friendly.

But the scorecards have been criticized as both too weak and too stringent. On one hand, they typically lack a mechanism for monitoring, simply relying on a company’s promises. On the other, developers say some of the standards are not feasible given realities on the ground. When some local governments started mandating use of the scorecards, some in the industry pushed back, saying it could have a chilling effect on solar development.

A new nongovernmental certification is in the works, a partnership between the Electric Power Research Institute, an industry-funded research group, and the Xerces Society. But the effort has proceeded slowly as partners try to find compromise between the needs of the solar industry and the needs of nature. The current draft would require 15 percent of vegetated areas on the site to include a diverse mix of native, pollinator friendly vegetation.

“On one side, we want to protect biodiversity and pollinators. On the other side, we need the most efficient way to get kilowatt hours to customers, to power at the plug,” said Jessica Fox, a conservation biologist with the electric power institute. “So we’re doing this work now to find where is a middle space.”

Among the challenges developers face: Higher upfront costs are no guarantee of greater savings. Landscapers with the right experience can be hard to find, as can native seeds.

Not every site is even appropriate for pollinator habitat, Ms. Fox noted. And even when they are, each has its own distinct characteristics. Climate, topography, soil type and other factors all change the palette of possibilities. For example, not far from Wildflower, at a site called Rancho Seco Solar II, the presence of endangered salamanders made it difficult for scientists to prepare the soil before planting a research plot with three native seed mixes.

The site’s owner, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, sees more promise in creating a hedgerow of more than 300 native shrubs and perennials along the perimeter of the site, which can increase habitat connectivity without complicating matters with the solar panels.

Given the urgency to tackle both global warming and biodiversity loss, solar sites should be experimenting with promising solutions, scientists say.

“We’re in this infancy, the infancy of trying to make this work and to do better,” Dr. Hernandez said. “And we need to get there faster.”

Germán & Co 9/4/24 Germán & Co 9/4/24

(WSJ) Today,Trump Wants to ‘Drill, Baby, Drill,’ but Can He Cut Energy Prices?

Today, Trump advocates for 'Drill, Baby, Drill,' but can he reduce energy prices?

The GOP nominee's anti-inflation strategy emphasizes reducing gas and electricity costs, sectors over which a president has limited influence.

Despite low natural gas prices and the expansion of wind and solar power, consumers still face delivery charges for the use of America's outdated electrical infrastructure. These costs are expected to rise as the system undergoes much-needed modernization.

The demand for electricity is increasing in many states due to the proliferation of data centers, industrial growth, and the shift towards electric vehicles and heating. This surge necessitates new power generation, while utilities and grid operators also strive to maintain existing, dependable sources.

Vince Duane, principal at Copper Monarch and former general counsel at PJM Interconnection, the nation's largest power grid operator, notes, "When all is said and done, the monthly bill arrives, and it's on an upward trend."

Image by Germán & Co

“GOP nominee’s anti-inflation pitch focuses on lower costs for gas and electricity, areas where a president has limited control…

“Ukraine's vast natural gas storage facilities can still offer Europe a lifeline this winter even as Russian bombs target the sites, the head of the country's national energy company told POLITICO.

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1831354226791874934

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1830978822012916135

"The Phoenix Birds, " featuring President Trump," crafted by Germán & Co.

Trump Wants to ‘Drill, Baby, Drill,’ but Can He Cut Energy Prices?

The Wall Street Journal article by David Uberti and Jennifer Hiller, dated September 4, 2024.

Donald Trump says he can rapidly cut Americans’ energy costs by 50% or more, a welcome prospect for inflation-weary voters. It is easier said than done.

The Republican presidential nominee says he will rely on a favorite campaign slogan to accomplish the feat: Drill, baby, drill. Trump says faster permitting, weaker environmental regulations and other measures will unleash more production of oil and natural gas and push down prices at the pump and on electricity bills.

But many drillers don’t share Trump’s gusto for more drilling. They are more focused on returning cash to shareholders than on growing production.

Meanwhile, energy prices are shaped by complex global and regional markets that don’t respond quickly to executive orders. Electricity costs in the country’s disjointed power system can swing based on events such as nearby weather patterns driving demand and far-off wars constricting fuel supplies.

“It’s mostly just bluster, because the president doesn’t have any direct control,” said Michael Webber, a professor of energy resources at the University of Texas at Austin.

Middling oil prices and historically low natural-gas prices this year have given producers little incentive to ramp up. Photo: Nate Smallwood for WSJ

The reasons for Trump’s pitch are clear. Soaring costs for gasoline, power and heating fuel busted Americans’ budgets and helped inflation skyrocket to 40-year highs. Even as price pressures relented in recent months, helped in part by fading gasoline costs, the price hike for electricity nationally have outpaced the rate of overall consumer price increases.

“The effects of President Trump’s plan will be seen immediately—energy prices will plummet in anticipation of new supply, which will in turn reduce the prices of all consumer goods,” a campaign spokeswoman said.

Drill, baby, drill

For many of the biggest shale drillers, “Drill, baby, drill” has become an anachronism.

The companies that turned the U.S. into an oil-and-gas juggernaut are increasingly cautious, thanks to an uncertain outlook for the global economy and painful memories of past busts. Wall Street has pushed producers toward maximizing profits, not growth, siphoning cash out of oil fields and into returns. Middling oil prices and historically low natural-gas prices this year have given producers little incentive to ramp up.

“There is nothing that you could wave your magic wand at from a political perspective and get that kind of an increase in production,” said Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at the natural-resource investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg…

President Biden learned how difficult it can be to cajole America’s frackers. Producers drastically cut production after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic gutted global demand. But fuel prices soared when economies reopened, and production levels didn’t bounce back. After promising to move the country away from fossil fuels, Biden implored drillers to ramp up, with limited success.

The 2022 energy shock from Russia’s war on Ukraine further highlighted the White House’s limited sway over global markets.

Trump has warned that Vice President Kamala Harris would curb oil and gas production. The Democratic nominee previously backed a fracking ban on federal lands but said in a CNN interview in August, “As president, I will not ban fracking.”

Oil-and-gas producers have successfully bolstered their stock prices by funneling more cash into dividends and share buybacks—not new drilling. Photo: Justin Hamel for WSJ

A spokeswoman for Harris said she would continue implementing Democrats’ 2022 climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, but offered no new proposals for cutting Americans’ energy bills.

Following price crashes in 2016 and 2020, oil-and-gas producers have successfully bolstered their stock prices by funneling more cash into dividends and share buybacks—not new drilling.

At least 63% of the industry’s cash outflows went toward capital expenditures in each of the eight quarters before the bottom of the 2016 collapse, according to an Evaluate Energy analysis of 46 publicly listed producers. Over the past eight quarters, that figure topped out at 49%.

U.S. oil production eventually reached record levels under President Biden, surpassing 13 million barrels a day this year. But production levels are increasing at a slower rate, and most oil executives say rapid growth is over.

Electric woes

Around 13% of U.S. households are behind on their energy bills, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which comprises state officials that administer federal energy aid to low-income Americans. The group estimates that 3.8 million families will have their electric or gas service disconnected this year, up from 3.5 million last year.

While making homes more efficient and resilient to weather could bring down household costs in the future, there are no quick fixes, said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the organization.

Fuel prices soared when economies reopened following Covid-19 lockdowns. Photo: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg News

Trump has said he would ease Biden-era rules on fossil-fuel-fired power plants but has provided few details on his plans for power prices.

The president has little influence on electricity costs, which are sensitive to the price of natural gas and regional differences in power generation.

Though natural-gas prices have remained low—and wind and solar power are expanding—consumers also pay delivery charges that cover the cost of moving electrons across America’s aging system of wires and poles. Those charges are likely to increase to pay for long-overdue upgrades.

In many states, demand for electricity is rising because of new data centers, manufacturing growth and a move to electric vehicles and building heat. New power generation is needed, and utilities and grid operators are seeking to keep older, reliable generation available, too.

“By the time it’s said and done, you get the bill at the end of the month, and it’s going up,” said Vince Duane, principal at Copper Monarch and former general counsel at PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest power grid operator.

Long-term impact

Many of Trump’s energy proposals are on the wish list of the oil-and-gas industry, and his agenda has helped attract millions in donations from oil tycoons. Trump has promised to make deep cuts at environmental agencies and issue faster permits and leases for drilling on federal lands, along with streamlined approvals for pipelines.

If he is elected, do you think the former president will make good on his promise of more drilling? Join the conversation below.

That push for immediacy would contend with yearslong timelines for major projects, but a Trump administration could shape the long-term outlook for fossil fuels, say analysts. One area where presidents can make a direct—but not immediate—impact is through tax incentives and setting efficiency standards for cars or appliances such as dishwashers, which could lower energy costs.

Trump has said he might cut subsidies for electric vehicles and loosen emissions standards for cars. That could grow future oil demand, though critics say it would lead to an increase in greenhouse-gas emissions.

Germán & Co 9/3/24 Germán & Co 9/3/24

Solar Eclipses And The Midnight Sun... Is Solar Energy Really Our Solution?

Batteries – California draws more electricity from the sun than any other state. It also has a timing problem: Solar power is plentiful during the day but disappears by evening, just as people get home from work and electricity demand spikes. To fill the gap, power companies typically burn more fossil fuels like natural gas.

That’s now changing. Since 2020, California has installed more giant batteries than anywhere in the world apart from China. They can soak up excess solar power during the day and store it for use when it gets dark.

Those batteries play a pivotal role in California’s electric grid, partially replacing fossil fuels in the evening. Between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. on April 30, for example, batteries supplied more than one-fifth of California’s electricity and, for a few minutes, pumped out 7,046 megawatts of electricity, akin to the output from seven large nuclear reactors.

Across the country, power companies are increasingly using giant batteries the size of shipping containers to address renewable energy’s biggest weakness: the fact that the wind and sun aren’t always available.

Image by Germán & Co

“Solar Power Won't Save Us…

Daniel Quiggin holds the position of senior researcher at the Chatham House Centre for Environment and Society, where his research primarily concentrates on the analysis of the evolution of national and global energy systems projected through the year 2050. On August 24, he published an article in The New York Times entitled "Solar Power Won't Save Us," which critically assesses the future prospects for solar energy. Additionally, in 2015, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) released a comprehensive study titled "The Future Of Solar Energy," which offers an extensive analysis of the potential of solar energy, particularly about battery storage solutions. Both publications significantly enhance our understanding of the future trajectory of this essential energy source.

The Future of Solar Energy?

MIT STUDY ON THE FUTURE OF SOLAR ENERGY

“The Future of Solar Energy considers only the two widely recognized classes of technologies for converting solar energy into electricity — photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP), sometimes called solar thermal) — in their current and plausible future forms. Because energy supply facilities typically last several decades, technologies in these classes will dominate solar-powered generation between now and 2050, and we do not attempt to look beyond that date. In contrast to some earlier Future of studies, we also present no forecasts — for two reasons. First, expanding the solar industry dramatically from its relatively tiny current scale may produce changes we do not pretend to be able to foresee today. Second, we recognize that future solar deployment will depend heavily on uncertain future market conditions and public policies — including but not limited to policies aimed at mitigating global climate change.

As in other studies in this series, our primary aim is to inform decision-makers in the developed world, particularly the United States. We concentrate on the use of grid-connected solar-powered generators to replace conventional sources of electricity. For the more than one billion people in the developing world who lack access to a reliable electric grid, the cost of small-scale PV generation is often outweighed by the very high value of access to electricity for lighting and charging mobile telephone and radio batteries. In addition, in some developing nations it may be economic to use solar generation to reduce reliance on imported oil, particularly if that oil must be moved by truck to remote generator sites. A companion working paper discusses both these valuable roles for solar energy in the developing world…

https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MITEI-The-Future-of-Solar-Energy-Executive-Summary.pdf

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1830536807383027908

Andrés Gluski, CEO of AES Corporation, advocates for the energy transition, highlighting the importance of renewable energy and energy storage for a sustainable future. He believes natural gas will be essential as a transitional fuel. Gluski emphasizes the need for a comprehensive strategy that includes increasing production to lower costs and working with regulators to adopt new technologies. AES has developed large-scale battery systems and initiated demonstration projects to showcase energy storage capabilities…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-25/aes-ceo-andres-gluski-on-energy-creation-video

Solar Power Won’t Save Us

Daniel Quiggin for The New York Times, August 24, 2024.

Solar power continues to break record after record. If solar continues its current 5-year compound growth rate of 23%, then by the end of 2046, it could be supplying all our global energy demand at 2023 levels. By 2050, we could more than double our energy consumption globally and solar will still be generating more than we need.

This year, around 1 billion solar panels, and 70 billion of their constituent solar cells, will be manufactured around the world, mostly in China. It is the repetitive modular manufacturing process that has lent itself to the rapid efficiency improvements and cost reductions—90% in the last decade—underpinning solar’s near-exponential growth. In 2009, the International Energy Agency predicted total installed solar power capacity would hit 244 GW in 2030. That target was met 14 years early, in 2016, and the total today is 1,600 GW—over six times the 2030 forecast.

The modular nature of solar panels make for efficient manufacturing. But it is also ideal for small scale deployment, including on our homes. Globally, more than 25 million homes now have decentralized solar on their roofs. By 2030, this is likely to exceed 100 million, according to the IEA, though its forecasts have undersold solar before. So, could we up this forecast to 200 million, 500 million, or even 1 billion solar powered households by the end of decade?

Here come the caveats. While the growth rate of deploying solar has been phenomenal, we must remember the first commercial solar farm was completed in California over 40 years ago, in 1982. In any near-exponential growth, the start of the graph always shows a long period of slow and insignificant deployment, before the growth rate bends the curve toward the vertical. In the case of solar, this period existed from the early 1980s to around 2005. It can be argued that solar didn’t reach truly disruptive deployment levels until 2015, when it first supplied more than 1% of global electricity, more than 30 years from the first solar farm in California.

You also can’t drive a solar cell to work, or fly on a magic carpet of solar panels. Other enabling technologies are needed to make solar energy useful. There are promising ones. These include electrolysers, heat pumps, and lithium-ion batteries. They can join the already-proven modular success stories of solar and wind.

The beauty of modular electrolysers is that they produce green hydrogen from electricity and water, meaning that we can utilize the electricity produced when there is too much wind or sun, and demand is low. This hydrogen from excess renewable electricity can then be used to generate electricity again when it’s cloudy and calm. It can also be stored seasonally, and utilized in industrial and agricultural processes, in future aircraft, and for powering cargo ships. Hydrogen elegantly compliments wind and solar, and electrolysers are continuing to fall in cost as more and more are produced.

As for modular heat pumps, they produce around three units of heat for every one unit of electricity input, and in 2021 a total of 190 million had been installed worldwide. Not only are they efficient, but importantly, they are also the only domestic heating source that runs on electricity.

You will now be familiar with the pattern, but let’s not leave out electric vehicles. There are around 7,000 lithium-ion battery cells in each Tesla. This highly modular technology is also rapidly falling in cost. Because electric vehicles can run on electricity from solar and wind, they are increasingly used to put power back on the grid when they are parked at home, acting as decentralized storage, known as bidirectional charging. Further, lithium-ion battery manufacturing for EVs has the spin-off effect of lowering stationary battery storage costs, again enabling the variability of solar and wind output to be smoothed.

Now for the realism. We don’t have limitless time to pursue carbon-free energy supply. Most net zero targets seek to achieve carbon neutrality over the next 25 years, or by 2050. More importantly, we are likely to pass 1.5C of warming, the Paris Agreement threshold target we are globally seeking to prevent breaching, by 2030. And it is at this 1.5C threshold that climatic feedbacks could kick in and lead to runaway climate change.

Nor do we have limitless money. Selecting the modular technologies that are synergetic and support each other is probably the best way to derive the most low-carbon energy, and decarbonize as quickly as we can, as cheaply as we can. But we don’t have 30 years to wait for these technologies to reach the truly disruptive deployment levels of solar only seen in recent years.

This is where we are going to also need to consider limiting demand, to meet the future constrained decarbonized supply. People will still be able to fly, and drive their non-EV car, but perhaps a little less often, until these technologies have had time to move along the growth curve. As climate change impacts increase in frequency and severity, this reality of carefully picking technology winners, backing them with more investment, and limiting demand, is highly likely to be the only option left.

Germán & Co 8/30/24 Germán & Co 8/30/24

Battery Storage: A Revolution in the New Era Of The Energy Market…

Batteries – California draws more electricity from the sun than any other state. It also has a timing problem: Solar power is plentiful during the day but disappears by evening, just as people get home from work and electricity demand spikes. To fill the gap, power companies typically burn more fossil fuels like natural gas.

Image by Germán & Co

We wish everyone a happy Monday!

Ah, batteries – we have always had a love-hate relationship with them!

“Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity

They’re delivering solar power after dark in California and helping to stabilize grids in other states. And the technology is expanding rapidly…

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html?searchResultPosition=1

On the one hand, as they power cherished toys, batteries bring pure joy to children. Elderly adults' hearts are filled with nostalgia as batteries enable them to listen closely to familiar melodies on their transistor radios. On the other hand, a dead car battery can disrupt a family's plans, leading to a whirlwind of frustration. Ah, those are enchanting times from another world!

There are also heart-stopping moments when the light bulb starts to flicker, casting ominous shadows and plunging us into unexpected darkness. The desperate cries echo: "Mum, the lights are out!" or "Where's the torch?" or "Dad, we can't just buy another fridge to keep the lights on!"

Explaining the latest electrical outburst to consumers, especially regarding power factors, can be challenging. After all, an innocent question about a big refrigerator's power consumption could be the key! Large batteries are the unsung heroes of the renewable energy revolution, transforming the energy sector and steering it towards greener practices.

The rapidly expanding battery sector is primarily associated with electric vehicles. However, large-scale energy storage solutions significantly contribute to its growth. The market for "powerhouses", which can provide power to towns and cities, more than doubled last year.

Battery storage is crucial for decarbonising the energy sector, as it facilitates the integration of renewable energy sources and reduces dependence on fossil fuels. Unfortunately, this remarkable technology still struggles to get the media attention it deserves, leaving many unaware of its importance in our modern world. Batteries help balance supply and demand by storing surplus energy produced during low-demand periods and releasing it during peak times. This process helps stabilise the grid and prevent blackouts. Additionally, batteries facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, which are not always available. By storing excess energy generated during sunny or windy conditions, batteries ensure that this energy can be utilised even during periods of low production. Additionally, batteries enhance grid stability and reliability by providing essential services, such as frequency regulation and voltage support, meaning we can forget about flickering bulbs.

One of the vital affordable advantages of battery storage systems is their versatility. They can be implemented at various scales, ranging from small residential units to extensive grid-scale facilities, making them adaptable to diverse requirements. This adaptability reassures us that renewable energy solutions can be flexible and scalable to meet our energy needs.

While wind and solar energy costs have significantly decreased over the past decade, the challenge remains in managing their inconsistent supply—ensuring power availability when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing. Batteries offer a viable solution by efficiently storing and delivering energy. As the installation of wind turbines and solar panels increases, particularly in China, the demand for energy storage is set to increase. In Germany, Fluence Energy, in partnership with TransnetBW, is developing the Netzbooster project. The initiative will become the world's largest battery-based energy storage-as-transmission project and is anticipated to be completed by 2025.

India is also aggressively developing energy storage technologies in its electric system, a crucial aspect of the emerging affordable climate and energy market. This global effort makes us feel part of a collective movement towards a sustainable future.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1830536807383027908

Image: Fluence's first complete product ecosystem BESS project in Australia. The photography is courtesy of Fluence.
https://www.energy-storage.news/fluence-wins-first-full-product-ecosystem-bess-project-order-in-australia/

Australia: Energy storage to mitigate fears over grid reliability from 2027

Authored by George Heynes, the article dated August 30, 2024, covers Grid Scale, Connected Technologies, and Market Analysis in Asia & Oceania, including Southeast Asia & Oceania.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has said that despite concerns about grid reliability in 2027-28, following the closure of the 2.8GWh Eraring coal-fired power station in New South Wales, energy storage will help alleviate the pressure.

Detailed within its 2024 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report, which provides a 10-year outlook of investment requirements to maintain reliability for the National Electricity Market (NEM), energy storage projects such as the 1.6GWh Orana BESS and the 2.2GWh Richmond Valley BESS, alongside the HumeLink transmission project, will partially mitigate some of the risk.

The report also details that 3.9GW/13.5GWh of BESS has been connected to the NEM in the past 12 months, trumping other technologies. Large-scale solar PV, on the other hand, saw 1.2GW connected.

In early 2022, Origin Energy, the power station’s owner, said it would be retiring the coal-fired power plant in 2025, yet in May 2024, the New South Wales government controversially extended this by an additional two years to “guarantee a maximum of electricity supply”. The new expected closure date is scheduled for August 2027.

At the time, AEMO stated that, without Eraring, New South Wales would face energy reliability risks from 2025, instead of the predicted 2027-2028 forecast now. As such, the state government is subsidising the power station to ensure it can remain operational.

Although the decision remains controversial, global market research organisation Cornwall Insight revealed that extending Eraring’s service will cut New South Wales’ power prices by 44%, dropping from a predicted AU$153/MWh (US$104/MWh) to AU$86/MWh in 2026. However, question marks remain over the power station’s use and impact on New South Wales and Australia’s climate goals.

It is worth noting that Origin Energy is in the process of developing two BESS at Eraring. Stage 1 of the project saw a 460MW/1073MWh 2-hour duration BESS being constructed, with a new additional 240MW/1030MWh grid-forming BESS having been approved late last month (25 July).

Germán & Co 8/29/24 Germán & Co 8/29/24

Russia warns Europe of higher gas prices if Ukraine cancels its transit agreement…

Russia has issued a warning that Europe could face increased gas prices...

Russia has issued a cautionary statement to Europe regarding the potential for increased gas prices should Ukraine decide to terminate its transit agreement. On August 29, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Kremlin, emphasized the significant repercussions that could arise from such a decision, particularly for European consumers who depend on Russian gas. He noted that this could lead to heightened costs for alternative energy sources, including liquefied natural gas from the United States.

The economic and political implications of Ukraine's role in gas transit are complex. In 2021, Kyiv earned approximately $1 billion (€0.92 billion) in transit fees from Russian gas. However, the ongoing conflict has resulted in diminished gas deliveries to Europe, reducing this revenue to around $700 million annually. Given the current low volumes of gas, Ukraine's profitability in this sector is unattainable, as the majority of these fees are allocated to operational expenses, such as pipeline maintenance. Consequently, any new agreement would need to significantly increase gas deliveries to assist Ukraine in overcoming its financial challenges. Without a renewed transit deal that involves substantial volumes, Ukraine is unlikely to achieve profitability. Politically, the transit role serves as a strategic asset for Ukraine in its negotiations with both Russia and the European Union, particularly in light of the cessation of the Nord Stream 2 project.

According to reports from Russian state news agencies, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated, as conveyed by Deutsche Welle on July 16 of this year, that the continuation of transit through Ukraine is dependent on the regulations established by Ukraine and its willingness to facilitate such transit. He further asserted that Russia stands ready to supply the necessary gas.

Image by Germán & Co

“Today, Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Kremlin, issued a significant warning regarding the potential consequences of terminating the transit agreement. He indicated that such a decision could adversely affect European consumers reliant on Russian gas, potentially resulting in increased costs for alternative energy sources, including liquefied natural gas from the United States…

http://gasprocessingnews.com/news/2024/08/kremlin-says-europe-will-pay-more-unless-ukraine-extends-gas-transit-deal/

Image: Nord Stream after the explosion by Germán & Co via Shutterstock

The economic and political profitability of Ukraine's gas transit role is multifaceted.

In 2021, Kyiv generated approximately $1 billion (€0.92 billion) in transit fees from Russian gas. However, the war has led to reduced deliveries to Europe, decreasing this revenue to about $700 million per year. With such minimal gas volumes, profitability for Ukraine is not achievable. The majority of these fees are allocated to operational costs, including pipeline maintenance. Therefore, any new agreement must substantially boost gas deliveries to help Kyiv overcome its financial hurdles. Without a renewed transit deal involving high volumes, Ukraine will not realize any profit. In the realm of politics, the transit role serves as a strategic asset for Ukraine in its dealings with both Russia and the European Union, especially now that Nord Stream 2 has been taken off the table.

“According to Russian state news agencies, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated, as reported by Deutsche Welle on July 16 of this year, that transit through Ukraine is contingent upon Ukraine's established regulations and their willingness to permit it. He further indicated that Russia is prepared to provide the necessary supplies.

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1829120149841944860

“Andrés Gluski, the CEO of the AES Corporation, has emphasized the ongoing importance of natural gas as a critical bridge fuel for the next 25 years. He emphasized that although the shift towards renewable energy is gaining pace, natural gas will still play a crucial role in fulfilling global energy needs until more accessible and economical low-carbon technologies emerge…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-03-25/aes-ceo-andres-gluski-on-energy-creation-video

What would the non-renewal of the Ukraine-Russia transit contract mean for the global natural gas market?

The Final Countdown: Will Russia and Ukraine Renew Gas Transit Deal?

Extending the transport of Russian gas via Ukraine after 2024 would likely benefit both Russia and Ukraine. Stopping the flow of gas, on the other hand, would be painful for whichever side initiates it.

Carnegie PolitiKa by Sergey Vakulenko, Published on February 15, 2024

“Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions from members of Carnegie’s global network of scholars and well-known outside contributors and has helped drive important strategic conversations and policy debates.

At the end of 2024, a five-year agreement expires governing one of the oldest and biggest economic links between Russia and Europe: the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. Kyiv has already said it will not extend the agreement, and Russian officials have confirmed no negotiations to that end are under way with either Ukraine or the EU. Still, that’s not to say that no more Russian gas will ever be shipped via Ukraine.

After all the upheaval of the last two years of war, Russian gas now enters Europe via two routes, each of which carries about 14 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The first is via the TurkStream pipeline and its extension, Balkan Stream, under the Black Sea to Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary. The second route is a corridor through Ukraine to Slovakia.

The main buyers of Russian gas are Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and Italy, whose current governments are guided by pragmatism in their foreign policy. Russian gas prices are now much more closely linked to European exchange prices than they were in the last decade, but still work out cheaper than liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially during price surges. Accordingly, some countries are reluctant to stop buying Russian gas entirely, though they have all signed up to the REPowerEU program, which envisages that Russian gas will be fully phased out by 2027.

Ukraine has already said it will not renew the transit agreement with Russia when it expires at the end of this year. European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson told reporters at the end of last year that the working scenario does not factor in those supplies. The Austrian company OMV said it was prepared to keep buying Russian gas, but at the same time reserved capacity in pipelines and at LNG receiving terminals that will enable it to manage without it.

Austria and Italy will be the least impacted by an end to Russian gas supplies. Austria will always have other options because multiple pipelines intersect on its territory. Italy also has other alternatives (albeit more expensive ones), since it gets gas from both Algeria and Azerbaijan via pipelines, and through several LNG terminals on its territory.

It’s a little more complicated for Hungary, but it could obtain Russian gas via TurkStream. Slovakia, on the other hand, has hardly any alternatives. It would need to organize a reverse flow from the Austrian hub, or receive gas through small German LNG terminals. Slovakia will also find itself furthest along the supply route, so its opportunities to procure gas will depend on whether Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have enough for themselves.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has suggested that instead of OGTSU (Ukrainian gas pipeline operator) signing a transportation contract with Russia, European companies could sign them, meaning the latter would effectively purchase gas on the Russia-Ukraine border and then task Ukraine with transporting that gas.

If Ukraine sticks to its guns and does stop transporting Russian gas through its territory, the transit system operator could declare sections of pipeline or other infrastructure decommissioned. But if they are considered operational, then European companies could book transport capacity on a daily, monthly, or yearly basis—just as they do when arranging the delivery of gas from the LNG terminal in Belgium to their domestic markets.

There are certain benefits for Ukraine in continuing to transport Russian gas. Mechanisms best described as “virtual reverse” and “virtual transportation” enabled Ukraine to maintain physical supplies of gas even when it stopped buying gas from Gazprom and switched to purchases from European traders. Even now, when Ukraine consumes significantly less gas due to being at war, and its own deposits are almost enough for its needs, this system is useful.

The issue is that gas extraction and consumption centers are not always located where they need to be, and this is where the virtual transportation comes in. Now, even the process of transporting gas from Ukrainian fields to Ukrainian consumers is effectively a virtual one: it is Russian gas that is sent to some areas (especially in the southern part of the country), while Ukrainian gas goes into the Slovak gas transportation system. Without an external supply of gas from Russia, Ukraine would have to modify its pipeline system and run it differently.

The situation will become even more complicated if the Ukrainian economy recovers and demand for gas grows. With no Russian gas flowing through the country, Ukraine would have to buy gas from Austria, pay for its transit through Slovakia, and then organize its delivery from the western border to the center of the country where consumption is concentrated. At the same European gas exchange price that Ukraine currently pays, physically reversing the flow would cost $30–40 more per 1,000 cubic meters than it does under a virtual reverse.

In 2022, Ukraine began providing large-scale gas storage facilities in the west of the country to EU countries, and plans to keep doing so. But that business also depends to a large extent on virtual reverse and swap operations: on the ability to buy gas at Austria’s Baumgarten hub and transport it virtually to Ukrainian storage facilities free of charge. Without any Russian gas transit, such operations will be more difficult and costly.

Russia, too, would take a hit—primarily financial—if it could no longer transport its gas via Ukraine. There are no equivalent alternative markets for the Yamal gas currently sold to Europe, and that will not change significantly, even with the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China (no earlier than 2030) and an LNG plant on the Baltic Sea (currently planned for 2026–2027). The combined capacity of those two new projects is approximately half of the volume by which supplies to Europe have already decreased.

According to Gazprom CFO Famil Sadygov, the state-owned gas giant’s 2023 revenues from gas sales at home and abroad amounted to about $48 billion. Losing about $7–8 billion per year in export revenues for 15 billion cubic meters of gas would therefore mean a loss of 15 percent of revenue, or more than half of Gazprom’s gas business EBITDA (excluding the company’s share in Gazprom Neft).

The second problem for Gazprom is the threat of claims for financial damages from its European customers. Some of the company’s long-term contracts with EU countries are valid through 2040, and the inability to deliver that gas due to an issue with a transport company is the supplier’s problem. If Kyiv bans the transportation of Russian gas, that will be considered a force majeure, which might relieve Gazprom from its delivery obligations. But if the Ukrainian gas transit system operator simply shuts down the border metering station, declares the route closed, and stops accepting gas from the Russian side, it will be a different story.

Another consideration affecting Russia as a whole is that payment for Russian gas is made by EU companies via Gazprombank. That means that neither the bank nor Gazprom itself will be subject to full blocking sanctions while the deal is in effect.

While it may be difficult right now to look ahead to the restoration of relations after the war, it is worth noting that it is much easier to return to previous volumes from a reduced level under a current contract than to restore ties that had been completely severed and enter into new contracts. At the same time, for Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, the flow of Russian gas and the ability to stop it is one of the few remaining steps on the escalation ladder.

In purely pragmatic terms, therefore, the continuation of gas transit after the end of 2024 is likely to be beneficial for both Russia and Ukraine. For European countries that continue to purchase Russian gas, the advantages are also clear.

The situation may change in 2026–2027, when significant new volumes of LNG from the United States and Qatar are due to enter the market. It’s possible that supply growth will outstrip demand growth, causing LNG prices to drop considerably. Accordingly, it will become less expensive for EU countries to go without Russian gas, and political pressure will increase as the deadlines laid out under REPowerEU approach.

There are still many unknowns in this equation, however. In Washington, the Biden administration has announced a pause on granting new LNG projects the right to export to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the United States. While that will not affect the market balance in 2026, it may cause European buyers to question the reliability and inexhaustibility of U.S. LNG supplies, and persuade them to maintain alternative options, including Russia.

Germán & Co 8/28/24 Germán & Co 8/28/24

"The monumental energy scam of the century has finally been exposed!"

Written By Germán & Co

Zelenski threatens Europe with Russian gas…

"No one will renew the gas transit agreement with Russia," he cautions.

Recent developments reported by HuffgrinPost indicate that President Zelenski has stated, "No one will extend the gas transit agreement with Russia." This announcement aligns with an article published by (1) Global Energy Markets News on September 12, 2023, titled "Who Blew Up Nord Stream 2?" which echoes themes from a prior essay by Energy Central on August 30, entitled "The Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning: The Unpredictable Consequences of Delicate Political Matters." The latter article concluded that a thorough investigation had identified individuals likely responsible for sabotaging this critical energy infrastructure, which had previously enabled the transportation of natural gas from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a project valued at $11 billion, received partial funding from notable entities such as British oil and gas company Shell, Austria's OMV, France's Engie, and Germany's Uniper and Wintershall DEA. This vital infrastructure was destroyed in seconds on September 26, 2023. Furthermore, on the 16th of this month, the Spanish newspaper ABC confirmed that President Zelenski had authorized the exploitation of the strategic gas pipeline, shedding light on the motivations behind this act.

In light of these recent developments from Kyiv, questions arise regarding the future of the natural gas market in Europe and the accountability for damages incurred by European investors and pipeline owners.

As we continue to explore the geopolitical dynamics of the energy sector, we are grateful to have you, our readers, accompany us on this journey. Your insights and contributions have been invaluable to our understanding of these intricate issues, and we appreciate your ongoing support. Thank you.

https://www.huffingtonpost.es/global/zelenski-amenaza-europa-gas-ruso.html

https://wognews.net/news/2023/9/who-blew-up-nord-stream-2

Image by Germán & Co

Zelenski threatens Europe with Russian gas…

"No one will renew the gas transit agreement with Russia," he cautions.

https://www.huffingtonpost.es/global/zelenski-amenaza-europa-gas-ruso.html

https://wognews.net/news/2023/9/who-blew-up-nord-stream-2

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

In a world that's constantly growing and grappling with inflation, the art of blogging faces its fair share of hurdles. To keep our content top-notch during these challenging times, we've poured resources into top-tier software, licenses, and stunning copyrighted images, among other essentials. But fear not, we're not navigating this journey alone! Just last week on "X," actions like "liking" or "retweeting" have become your secret weapons—free and private, thanks to "Musk" your support through these simple yet impactful gestures is not just a token of appreciation but a significant contribution that shapes our journey!

If you're feeling motivated to make a difference, consider extending your generosity through PayPal at gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com, or by using our IBAN account: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611. Alternatively, you can effortlessly support our blog with a secure contribution via Stripe using the donation link. Every little bit helps!

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1828811485146992731

If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

A treacherous terrain awaits President-elect Trump as he steps into the spotlight…

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North America has enough gas resources with cost economics below $2.8 per MMBTU to meet more than 25 years of demand.?

Help us…

Today…

A different and more dangerous world awaits President-elect Trump

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You can't possibly deny me...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

You can't possibly deny me...

A different and more dangerous world awaits President-elect Trump

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Double the impact...

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The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires…

You can't possibly deny me...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

You can't possibly deny me...

Operation ‘Just Cause’

Forewords…

This evening, we wish to in some exquisite jazz...

Carter’s Panama Canal Treaties Symbolize How Much Washington Has Changed

To return the canal to Panama, President Jimmy Carter worked to change minds and build a bipartisan coalition that put aside short-term political considerations….

Before Trump Takes Office, Biden to Ban Drilling in Some Coastal Waters…

Move would be difficult for incoming administration to undo…

The Details:

The Context:

The Big Picture:

Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

What Implications Does Europe's Third Dark Day Hold for the Future of Energy?

“On Tuesday, the cost of natural gas in Europe soared to 50 euros (about $51.88) per megawatt hour, marking a significant moment in the energy market…

The road…

The economic and political implications of Ukraine's role in gas transit are complex and multifaceted…

Today…

Ukraine Halts Flow of Natural Gas From Russia to Europe…

You can't possibly deny me...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

You can't possibly deny me...

Ukraine Halts Flow of Natural Gas From Russia to Europe…

Reagan's Retreat from Panama: Will Trump Imitate Him?

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Greetings to all, and best wishes for a prosperous and healthy year in 2025…

You can't possibly deny me...

Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence...

Thank you for being a part of our journey! Your generous support is truly invaluable to us! It plays a crucial role in helping us achieve our goals and make a positive impact. Thank you for being such an important part of our journey!

You can't possibly deny me...

The Panama Canal Has a Big Problem, but It’s Not China or Trump…

A changing climate, a changing world..

Trump Wants U.S. Control of the Panama Canal. Here Are 3 Things to Know…

Treaties ratified by the Senate in 1978 established permanent neutrality, but some Republicans regret that decision. President-elect Donald J. Trump stated that Panama charges U.S. vessels "exorbitant prices" to transit the Panama Canal.

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Can the United States Reassert Control?

South American and Caribbean Natural Gas: A Strategic Asset in Uncertain Times…

“Cosmic forces have aligned to awaken the dormant natural gas reserves in Latin America's heart, preparing them for their moment to shine…

“The natural gas surge in the Dominican Republic, led by AES Dominicana, is a game-changer that is creating new opportunities.

“Cosmic forces have aligned to awaken the dormant natural gas reserves in Latin America's heart, preparing them for their moment to shine…

“The natural gas surge in the Dominican Republic, led by AES Dominicana, is a game-changer that is creating new opportunities.

Greetings, everyone! Wishing you a wonderful Wednesday filled with abundant health and love!

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Caribbean Natural Gas: A Vital Resource in Unpredictable Times…

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Introduction to the Voyage of Existence for the Better...

Image…

Big shoutout to AES Dominicana for their amazing support and unwavering commitment...

"A single image can communicate a multitude of messages. In this specific inst

AES Dominicana has made a significant contribution to improving the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system by using a variety of fuels and renewable energy sources.