Editor's Reflections:

A Swedish Nightmare Its name is —Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—.

Any political decision that involves the gift of a Natural Gas Hub has significant weight.

Maybe this Swedish nightmare should have the same name as Gabriel García Marquez's book: "Chronicles of a death foretold.” Where the end of the story is known from the beginning in this tragic microcosm, in which Gabo explores the ancestral atavism of the virgin in Hispanic culture and weaves together concepts like public morality, family honour, and class consciousness while also elaborating a masterful twist on the indissoluble link between love and death, helped him win the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1982.

"Go on, girl: tell us who it was. She took just long enough to say the name. She searched for him in the darkness, found him at first sight among the many and many confusable names of this world and the other, and left him nailed to the wall with her accurate dart, like a butterfly whose sentence had always been written. -Santiago Nasar", he said.

There has been a professional and in-depth analysis of the controversy surrounding Turkey's veto of Sweden's application for NATO membership from all angles, including historical, political, and gender-related perspectives, because, at one point, the former Swedish foreign minister, Ms. Ann Linde, was blamed for being a woman, which supposedly made it challenging to negotiate with a state where men have held power for millennia.

This contentious topic was discussed in a Bloomberg piece published on November 8 last year:

“Swedish Gift to Turkey in NATO Talks Evokes Centuries of History, PM Kristersson gives Erdogan copy of 1739 alliance accord.”

The accord with the predecessor of the modern Turkish Republic is a symbol of the two nations’ commitment to each others’ security, the Swedish leader told Erdogan. It was signed roughly two decades after Sweden’s King Charles XII sought refuge at an Ottoman castle following a disastrous defeat at the Battle of Poltava against the Russians.

The ruler later became known as Demirbas, Turkish for fixed asset, for having his expenses borne by the Turks.

Erdogan’s Surprise In return, Turkey’s president said he had a “surprise” for his guest: an undated letter from a Swedish envoy in Istanbul, which expressed his king’s gratitude for financial help from the Ottomans and their mediation between Sweden and Russia.  Erdogan also gave Kristersson a decree from the same period that documented shipment of wheat to Sweden as a form of aid, citing it as a historic example of Turkey’s mediation role. “History repeating itself,” the Swedish premier said, according to the footage, in an apparent reference to Turkey’s role arbitrating in the war Russia started in Ukraine. “It would not, if lessons were to be drawn,” Erdogan answered.

“Very much agreed,” Kristersson replied.

Who is the President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?

According to POLITICO EU, in his nomination POLITICO 28, for the year 2023, President Erdoğan calls the Wild Car. Why?

Whose side is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on? The answer isn’t always clear. Ostensibly, the Turkish president leads a NATO member and a European Union candidate country. In reality, his relationship with the West is often transactional at best and hostile at worst. He has accused Germany of “Nazi practices” and routinely threatens to “open the doors” for migrants to move on to Europe, despite the bloc paying Turkey billions of euros to keep them there.

His relationship with Moscow is a case in point. Russia and Turkey once came to blows in Syria, but since the invasion of Ukraine, Erdoğan, 68, has largely portrayed himself as neutral, even accusing the West of “provocation” of Russia. (He also provoked the Kremlin himself by intimating that Crimea is not actually Ukrainian or Russian, but Turkish.) At the same time, Turkey played a key role in ensuring Ukraine’s ability to export grain via the Black Sea, and Erdoğan wants to play moderator in the case of a negotiated settlement between Moscow and Kyiv.

There’s also the status of Cyprus — which Turkey invaded and partly occupied in the 1970s — that Erdoğan has shown little willingness to resolve. He has become increasingly combative with Greece, a fellow NATO member, hinting he might invade if Athens continues a military buildup on islands close to Turkey’s coastline. While that remains an unlikely prospect, tensions in the eastern Mediterranean are heating up as the EU explores alternative gas supplies and the disputed gas-rich waters around Cyprus beckon.

On 19 October last year, the following article from The Moscow Times was reproduced in the blog, indicating that Sweden would be highly complicated to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after hearing this news. Moreover, make clear the Kremlin's skill in its well-known high-flying lobbying expertise. Another skillful move by President Vladimir Putin

Erdoğan Announces Deal Whit Moscow to Create Gas Hub in Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Wednesday that he had agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to create a "gas hub" in Turkey, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported.

During an address to the Turkish parliament, Erdogan cited Putin as saying Europe could obtain its gas supply from the hub in Turkey while Russia's supplies to Europe were disrupted by Ukraine-related sanctions and leaks at key pipelines.

Last week, the two leaders discussed the creation of the gas hub at a face-to-face meeting in the Kazakh capital Astana.

"Turkey has turned out to be the most reliable route for deliveries today, even to Europe,” Putin said last week.

Gas prices have skyrocketed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, and the EU has struggled to find alternative energy supplies after Russia decided to curtail its deliveries to Europe in response to Western sanctions.

On 19 October last year, the following article from The Moscow Times was reproduced in the blog, indicating that Sweden would be highly complicated to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after hearing this news. Moreover, make clear the Kremlin's skill in its well-known high-flying lobbying expertise. Another skillful move by President Vladimir  

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday that he had agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to create a "gas hub" in Turkey, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported.

During an address to the Turkish parliament, Erdogan cited Putin as saying Europe could obtain its gas supply from the hub in Turkey while Russia's supplies to Europe were disrupted by Ukraine-related sanctions and leaks at key pipelines.

Last week, the two leaders discussed the creation of the gas hub at a face-to-face meeting in the Kazakh capital Astana.

"Turkey has turned out to be the most reliable route for deliveries today, even to Europe,” Putin said last week.

Gas prices have skyrocketed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, and the EU has struggled to find alternative energy supplies after Russia decided to curtail its deliveries to Europe in response to Western sanctions.

AFP contributed reporting.

Recap

It is because of the importance of common sense in the analysis, those two words rooted in everyday language that we used to use every day to judge a situation that seemed anomalous, irrational, deceitful because it was opposed to good finding and good sense, that is because it defied common sense. They seem to have been withdrawing from the collective imagination. Because common sense, to be such, must be precise, and the idea has been incubating that nothing can be qualified as true, that everything is open to opinion. That error does not exist as a category of analysis.

Any political decision that involves the gift of a Natural Gas Hub has significant weight.

Quote of the day…

EU talks on fresh Russian oil price caps go to the wire

Ambassadors to meet again on Friday as Sunday deadline looms.

POLITICO EU bY CHARLIE COOPER

February 1, 2023

Pentagon says it is monitoring Chinese spy balloon spotted flying over US

Officials say balloon has been watched for a few days but has decided not to shoot it down for safety reasons

The Guardian by Julian Borger in Washington

Fri 3 Feb 2023

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

EU talks on fresh Russian oil price caps go to the wire

Ambassadors to meet again on Friday as Sunday deadline looms.

POLITICO EU bY CHARLIE COOPER

February 1, 2023

EU countries failed to strike a deal on a price cap for Russian oil products, with a deadline for settling the price now just days away.

Talks between EU ambassadors that were due to resume on Thursday have now been postponed until Friday while diplomats seek a compromise, six EU diplomats said. The European Commission last week proposed that — as part of a G7 coalition — the EU should enforce a price cap of $100 per barrel on products like diesel which trade above the price of crude oil and $45 for those that trade at a discount to crude.

But Poland and the three Baltic countries have pushed for lower caps and for the existing G7 price cap on Russian crude oil to be lowered from the current $60 per barrel. Russia's Urals export blend crude oil has been trading at between $46 and $52 per barrel in January. The more hawkish EU countries want to drive down the crude cap to between $40 and $50 to curb the fossil fuel revenues that fund Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. Diesel currently trades at around $120 to $130 per barrel.

An EU-wide ban on Russian oil products — those from crude oil, such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel — comes into force this Sunday, February 5, presenting a hard deadline for agreement.

The G7 coalition price cap is due to come into force at the same time so that Western shipping firms and insurance companies can continue facilitating Russian oil exports sold at or below the cap level. The EU ban and the G7 caps are intended to work in parallel to trim Russia’s income while avoiding a major shock to global energy markets.

No progress was achieved at a meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday, which also discussed a new EU sanctions package on Russia’s ally Belarus. Three EU diplomats said that hawkish countries, spearheaded by Lithuania, are also pushing back against exemptions within the Belarus sanctions package for fertilizer, inserted to reflect other countries’ concerns about global food security.

The European Commission will now continue deliberations behind closed doors, with a view to finally striking a deal at the next meeting of ambassadors on Friday. Similar last-minute disagreements took place late last year over the price cap on Russian crude oil, with an original proposal of $65 to $70 per barrel being cut to $60 following opposition from Poland and Baltic countries.

“We trust that an agreement will be reached before February 5,” one EU diplomat said. A second diplomat said, meanwhile, that the bigger EU countries were becoming “fed up with the moral blackmail” of the hawkish coalition.

The EU’s ban on Russian diesel had led to fears of a supply crunch, but significant increases in imports in recent weeks have eased those concerns for now.

Some commentators have criticized the proposed cap levels for oil products.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said the caps were too high to have a significant impact.

“This really represents window dressing by EU countries,” Myllyvirta said. “The aim must be to push Russia's selling prices far below where the market would set them, close to production costs, depriving Russia of excess profits. Instead, the mentality for too many countries is to set the cap levels so high as to only act as circuit breaker against price spikes.”

Pentagon says it is monitoring Chinese spy balloon spotted flying over US

Officials say balloon has been watched for a few days but has decided not to shoot it down for safety reasons

The Guardian by Julian Borger in Washington

Fri 3 Feb 2023 01.27 GMT

The Pentagon has said it is tracking a Chinese spy balloon flying over the United States but decided against shooting it down for safety reasons.

Defence officials said the balloon has been watched for a couple days since it entered US airspace, flying at high altitude. It has been monitored by several methods including manned aircraft, and has most recently been tracked crossing over Montana, where the US has some of its silo-based nuclear missiles. As a precaution, flights out of Billings Logan airport were suspended on Wednesday.

“The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

“Instances of this kind of balloon activity have been observed previously over the past several years. Once the balloon was detected, the US government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information.”

US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions

The incident comes just ahead of a visit to China by Antony Blinken, expected this weekend, when it is believed the US secretary of state will meet Xi Jinping. The trip has not been formally announced, but both Beijing and Washington have been talking about his imminent arrival.

A senior US defence official said the US has “engaged” Chinese officials through multiple channels and communicated the seriousness of the matter.

Pentagon officials said there was “high confidence” that it was Chinese, and that Joe Biden was briefed on the situation. The president asked for military options, but it was decided that there was too great a danger of debris harming people on the ground were it to be shot down.

Another factor in the decision was that, although it was flying over sensitive nuclear sites in Montana, it did not appear to be gathering any intelligence that could not be collected from satellites, so it was judged to be of little benefit to the Chinese.

Montana is home to one of the nation’s three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base. All air traffic was halted at Montana’s Billings Logan international airport from 1.30pm to 330pm on Wednesday, as the military readied fighter jets and provided options to the White House.

Congressional leaders were briefed on the matter Thursday afternoon. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy later tweeted: “China’s brazen disregard for US sovereignty is a destabilising action that must be addressed.”

Montana Governor Greg Gianforte said he was briefed on Wednesday about the situation after the state’s National Guard was notified of an ongoing military operation taking place in its airspace, according to a statement from the governor and spokesperson Brooke Stroyke.

The object first flew over Alaska’s Aleutian Islands and through Canada before appearing over the city of Billings, Montana, on Wednesday, officials said.

Military experts say that use of high-altitude balloons is likely to increase over the coming years. They are much cheaper than spy satellites, are hard to spot by radar and difficult to shoot down, sometimes lingering for days after they have been punctured. They can “steer” by changing altitudes, using computers to calculate how to use winds going in different directions at different layers of the atmosphere. As well as surveillance, they could also carry bombs, in times of conflict.

In 2019, the US military used up to 25 experimental solar-powered high-altitude balloons to conduct wide-area surveillance tests across six midwestern states. The balloons were equipped with hi-tech radars designed to simultaneously track many individual vehicles day or night, through any kind of weather, and were intended to be used to monitor drug trafficking and potential homeland security threats.

Tensions with China are particularly high on numerous issues, ranging from Taiwan and the South China Sea to human rights in China’s western Xinjiang region and the clampdown on democracy activists in Hong Kong. Not least on the list of irritants are China’s tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its refusal to rein in North Korea’s expanding ballistic missile program and ongoing disputes over trade and technology.

Some Montana residents reported seeing an unusual object in the sky during the airport shutdown, but it’s not clear that what they were seeing was the balloon.

From an office window in Billings, Chase Doak said he saw a “big white circle in the sky” that he said was too small to be the moon.

He took some photos, then ran home to get a camera with a stronger lens and took more photos and video. He could see it for about 45 minutes and it appeared stationary, but Doak said the video suggested it was slowly moving.

“I thought maybe it was a legitimate UFO,” he said. “So I wanted to make sure I documented it and took as many photos as I could.”