Today…

Ursula von der Leyen's perilous journey to Latin America as President of the European Union

”Europe is coming back, but not at full speed…

1. Despite Latin America has been in the U.S. backyard, China has wise and strategically colonized the region in the past two decades.

2. Pandemic worsened poverty in Latin America. The EU's health reliance shifted towards Russia and China due to delayed release of Western vaccines, leading to criticism.

3. On the hunt for Latin American lithium. LA's abundant lithium resources and the potential for green hydrogen development make it appealing to superpowers. The European Union is countering the growing influence of Asian giants in Latin America through the Global Gateway program.

4. The region's president warned European Union President Ursula Von Der Leyen that nothing could be given away for free.

“Latin America has always been in the United States' backyard…

Latin America, and the Caribbean have strong connections with the United States through geography, commerce, and family ties, but the region is facing unprecedented challenges that could impact our security and prosperity. The pandemic worsened existing issues, increasing inequality and insecurity, and leading to more migration to the U.S.

As a result of dissatisfaction with previous government performance, the region has shifted to the left, with populist authoritarian governments consolidating power in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. Argentina, Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, and Chile have all faced crises and anti-democratic manifestations.

Governments may, however, reduce their cooperation with the US on critical issues, allowing rivals such as China, Russia, and Iran to expand their regional presence. The Biden administration has regional diplomacy expertise and policy documents. The bill emphasizes the importance of a public debate to address issues such as resource allocation, interagency efforts, and the root causes of regional issues.

“China, on the other hand...

Beijing's strategy for boosting China's influence in Latin America and the Caribbean. Chinese state-owned enterprises, with government backing, have invested in Latin America since 2005, driving China's expansion in the region, particularly in the last decade. The pandemic has temporarily slowed progress. This includes $314 billion in PRC trade and $136 billion in loans from PRC policy banks. China invests in industries like oil, mining (including strategic minerals like lithium), agro-logistics, forestry, and fishing to ensure access to commodities and food for its people. Chinese companies prioritize secure connectivity to strategic markets and technologies in various sectors, including electricity, biotech, transportation, logistics, telecom, smart cities, A.I., and e-commerce. Bilateral engagement, including free trade agreements and strategic partnerships, has facilitated progress in critical areas.

They have collaborated with the Inter-American Development Bank and United Nations Economic Commission and participated in forums such as BRICS and Caribbean Development Bank to achieve their goals. They collaborated with CELAC to coordinate regional engagement plans, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The PRC employs "people-to-people" diplomacy in Latin America through Confucius Institutes, scholarships, and sponsored trips for academics, analysts, journalists, and politicians via the Chinese Communist Party's International Liaison Department. China supports Latin American media.

PCR's military involvement in the region is a cause for concern. They supply armaments, train personnel, send warships and military delegations, and covertly involve themselves in strategic infrastructure development, such as ports (Honduras). Recent information on a base in Cuba highlights the extent of their involvement.

The US authorities' inadequate response to a recent development has sparked intense debate in political studies circles, causing confusion and concern. China has reportedly reached out to Havana to establish another espionage facility in Cuba, according to —The Wall Street Journal and POLITICO—. The White House and the Pentagon both issued statements on the same day refuting the accuracy of the reporting. They did not explain their objections. A Biden administration official accuses China of espionage against the US. The speaker claimed the current administration inherited the issue. The administration has taken action to address the matter, said the official. To hold China accountable, measures like cybersecurity and diplomacy are being improved. The US will seek other ways to hold China accountable for its actions. The administration is determined to protect the US from China's malicious activities.

The pandemic has made the region more vulnerable to China's influence as it supplies vaccines and medical aid and purchases goods. And China's institutions fund significant projects like Peru's Chancay port, Mexico's Maya train, and Argentina's $8 billion Hualong-1 reactor.

Who is Ursula von der Leyen?

The current leader of the European Union, has been entrusted with the responsibility of addressing the multifaceted challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and an invasion that has further aggravated the pre-existing global economic crisis and the aftermath of the pandemic.

Ursula von der Leyen is a German politician born in Brussels, Belgium, in 1958. Whit studied in economics at three institutions and earned a degree from Hanover Medical School (MHH) in 1991.

Ursula von der Leyen started politics in 1996 and became a minister in Angela Merkel's first administration. She oversees family affairs, senior citizens, women, and youth. Von der Leyen was the first female German Minister of Defense from 2013 to 2019. In July 2019. In 2015, Europe saw a significant influx of refugees, leading to the implementation of anti-immigration policies backed by Angela Merkel and Francois Zarcozy, who both have Jewish ancestry. These measures faced strong condemnation for their harsh treatment of minority groups, including the Roma community.

…”The crisis significantly impacted the region's political, social, and economic domains. Angela Merkel's downfall is often attributed to her policy during the 2015 migrant crisis. Germany's net migration figure doubled to 1.1 million that year. Despite the Dublin Agreement, Merkel made Germany the largest destination for refugees in Europe as the continent struggled to cope. The refugee crisis remains a defining moment in Merkel's leadership, signalling her loss of power.

Whem in October 2018, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek another term as CDU leader. Ursula von der Leyen was nominated for European Commission President. Her confirmation was narrowly secured with 383 out of 747 votes cast. The former German Defense Minister resigned and was succeeded by Kramp-Karrenbauer. The cabinet formation was delayed by one month due to disagreements regarding its composition.

Von der Leyen, since taking office, COVID-19 has caused global fatalities and disruptions. EU member states have reintroduced border controls. 75% of EU citizens will receive at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by the end of 2021. Russia has increased its military presence in several regions, including Western Russia, Crimea, Belarus, and Transdniestria in Moldova. EU leaders sought to prevent a the Russian invasion of Ukraine reduced its dependence on Russian gas exports. In February 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine marked the most significant European conflict since World War II. Von der Leyen has pledged €500 million in direct military aid to Ukraine, marking the EU's first weapons financing for a country under attack.

On the Global Gateway Program for Latin America and von der Leyen trip...

The EU's Global Gateway program promotes sustainable development and cooperation with partners. The focus is on improving intelligent, clean, and secure connections in digital, energy, and transportation sectors, as well as global health, education, and research systems. The EU and its member states will invest €300 billion in sustainable projects from 2021 to 2027 for lasting benefits to communities and partner countries. The Global Gateway aligns with UN’s Agenda 2030, Sustainable Development Goals, and Paris Agreement.

The EU is countering China's influence in Latin America through diplomacy. Ursula von der Leyen's recent visit to South America marks the first in a decade. The promise is to invest €10 billion and sign supply agreements for regional strategic materials, but Brazil and Argentina oppose unravelling Mercosur due to their concerns. Europe aims to regain lost ground in China, the top trading partner in South America and second in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Von der Leyen pledges €10 billion in investments and strategic material agreements but faces opposition from Brazil and Argentina in dismantling Mercosur. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen informed Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the EU's plan to strengthen its partnership with Brazil during her recent visit. Argentina, Chile, and Mexico followed Brazil. The EU is trying to cancel the Mercosur agreement, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and is the fifth largest non-EU economic area.

Latin America is a natural choice for rare earth, but the region is cautious about European interest and the Mercosur agreement. Lula and Fernández see the pact as mutually beneficial, but some believe it favor’s the community club.

”Europe is coming back, but not at full speed…

According to Beata Wojna, a professor of Instituto de Relaciones Internacionales del Tecnologico de Monterrey in Mexico, Europe is coming back, but not at full speed. The EU has acknowledged Latin America's political and economic distancing. The pandemic widened the gap as the EU faced backlash for not releasing Western vaccines while Russia and China did.

Von der Leyen is committed to addressing the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine. It surpasses European companies' combined investments in China, India, Japan, and Russia. Chinese influence is rapidly expanding. Bilateral trade in goods between Latin America and Asia has grown 26 times, from €11B to €287B in 2020. It is expected to surpass $700 billion by 000. Beijing has signed free trade agreements with Peru, Costa Rica, and Chile and completed technical negotiations with Ecuador. Negotiations with Uruguay continue. Javi López, MEP and co-president of EuroLat, recommends that the EU prioritize China's unique value to the region instead of obsessing over its role.

The Union wants an alliance, not dependence. The Members of European Parliament (MEP) attributes our economy's compatibility with Latin America to its non-destructive nature. Chinese enterprises receive government subsidies and must follow state labour and environmental policies. Latin American governments prioritize industrial development over raw material sales. We must show the value of our investments beyond extraction," he says. The EU partners with seven Latin American countries to promote cooperation on raw materials and secure more lithium supply agreements in the region. China invests billions in lithium production in Mexico, the new El Dorado, and the "lithium triangle" (Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile). Von der Leyen signed an agreement to develop a lithium production chain in Chile and Argentina. Wojna suggests showing genuine interest as a successful strategy.

The professor warns of mistrust and a perception that Europe wants to extract resources from Latin America, leading to a lack of promotion and dissemination.

The President of the Council of the EU, Charles Michel, visited the region after several EU commissioners in recent months. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, has been active. Brussels is looking forward to the EU-CELAC summit in July under Spain's presidency.

Strengthening relations with Latin America is a top priority for Spain, as shown by the recent summit after an eight-year gap. The meeting aims to achieve more than just concrete agreements and economic announcements, such as the investments of 10,000 million euros from the Commission and 9,400 million from Spain. Brussels aims to promote Mercosur, but ratification is blocked by France, Ireland, Austria, and the Netherlands over economic concerns. Von der Leyen emphasized this objective during her visit to Brazil and Argentina. Lula and Fernández, who did not sign, question the EU's proposed letter to be added to the agreement.

The letter addresses new European environmental regulations on deforestation that some in Latin America see as protectionism. Buenos Aires and Brasilia want to renegotiate a harmful part of the agreement. Visiting Mexico, Chile and Brazil, sees von der Leyen's trip as a sign of the EU's commitment to the region and the need for ongoing political efforts to strengthen relations.

The MEP suggests adjusting the letter to Mercosur to prioritize environmental policies, but Professor Wojna fears inflexibility from some EU members or the Commission may cause a missed opportunity. The Amazon's destruction could hinder Mercosur countries from creating certification systems to prevent deforestation in their exports, warns Wojna. According to his prediction, the agreement with Mexico may not be modernized and signed until after the Mexican and European Parliament elections in June 2024 or even as late as 2025.

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Beijing Plans a New Training Facility in Cuba, Raising Prospect of Chinese Troops on America’s Doorstep

Biden administration scrambles to forestall China’s ambitions in the Caribbean

WSJ By Warren P. Strobel,  Gordon Lubold,  Vivian Salama and Michael R. Gordon, June 20, 2023

China and Cuba already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. PHOTO: YANDER ZAMORA/SHUTTERSTOCK

WASHINGTON—China and Cuba are negotiating to establish a new joint military training facility on the island, sparking alarm in Washington that it could lead to the stationing of Chinese troops and other security and intelligence operations just 100 miles off Florida’s coast, according to current and former U.S. officials.

Discussions for the facility on Cuba’s northern coast are at an advanced stage but not concluded, U.S. intelligence reports suggest. The Biden administration has contacted Cuban officials to try to forestall the deal, seeking to tap in to what it thinks might be Cuban concerns about ceding sovereignty. Beijing’s effort to establish a military training facility in Cuba hasn’t been previously reported. The White House declined to comment.

The heightened anxiety in Washington over China’s ambitions in the Caribbean and Latin America comes as the administration is seeking to tamp down broader tensions with Beijing that have been stoked by a host of other issues, including U.S. support for Taiwan. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was on a high-profile visit to China these past few days, meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The trip appeared to halt a downward spiral in relations. But Blinken failed to secure China’s agreement to a U.S. proposal that the two countries resume military-to-military communications to avoid misunderstandings. He also raised U.S. concerns about Chinese intelligence activities in Cuba, according to a State Department statement.

U.S. officials said reference to the proposed new training facility in Cuba is contained in highly classified new U.S. intelligence, which they described as convincing but fragmentary. It is being interpreted with different levels of alarm among policy makers and intelligence analysts.

The Wall Street Journal reported on June 8 that China and Cuba had reached an agreement in principle for a new eavesdropping site in Cuba; the White House characterized that reporting as inaccurate but didn’t elaborate. Two days later, the White House declassified intelligence to confirm publicly that Chinese intelligence collection facilities have existed in Cuba since at least 2019.

Current and former U.S. officials said a new military facility could provide China with a platform to potentially house troops permanently on the island and broaden its intelligence gathering, including electronic eavesdropping, against the U.S.

Most worrying for the U.S.: The planned facility is part of China’s “Project 141,” an initiative by the People’s Liberation Army to expand its global military base and logistical support network, one current and one former U.S. official said.

China and Cuba already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. That network underwent a significant upgrade around 2019, when a single station expanded to a network of four sites that are operated jointly, and Chinese involvement deepened, according to the officials.

There also are signs of changes in the arrangement for those facilities that officials say could signal greater Chinese involvement, though the details are scant. A U.S. intelligence report earlier this year referred to the “centralization” of the management of the four joint sites, but what precisely that entails isn’t clear.

Other Project 141 sites include a deal for a Chinese naval outpost in Cambodia and a military facility whose purpose isn’t publicly known at a port in the United Arab Emirates, a former U.S. official said. None of the previously known Project 141 sites are in the Western Hemisphere.

Some of those facilities include intelligence gathering capabilities as well, including a Chinese base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa, Beijing’s only military base outside the Pacific region, where China has been working to build a facility for gathering signals intelligence.

An official with the Chinese Embassy in Washington referred to comments from a senior foreign ministry spokesman in Beijing on June 9, saying he wasn’t aware of any deal between China and Cuba and saying the U.S. is an “expert in chasing shadows” in other countries and meddling in their affairs.

“We hope that relevant parties can focus more on things that are conducive to enhancing mutual trust and regional peace and stability development,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said when asked about the Cuba negotiations at a regular briefing in Beijing on Tuesday.

Cuba’s embassy in Washington had called the Journal’s earlier report “totally mendacious and unfounded.” The embassy didn’t respond to a request for comment on Monday.

In an interview with CBS News on Monday, Blinken said that the Chinese activities in Cuba were a serious concern for the administration and that he had raised it in his weekend meetings in Beijing.

“We’ve been taking steps over the past couple of years, diplomatically, wherever we’ve seen China trying to create that kind of presence,” he said. “It is something of real concern. I was very clear about our concerns with China.”

U.S.-China tensions have soared in recent months over issues including a Chinese spy balloon that flew over the U.S. before the U.S. military shot it down, and close encounters between the nations’ militaries in the skies and at sea.

Some intelligence officials say that Beijing sees its actions in Cuba as a geographical response to the U.S. relationship with Taiwan: The U.S. invests heavily in arming and training the self-governing island that sits off mainland China and that Beijing sees as its own. The Journal reported that the U.S. has deployed more than 100 troops to Taiwan to train its defense forces.

Taiwan is roughly 100 miles from mainland China, about the same distance Cuba is from Florida.

China has no combat forces in Latin America, according to U.S. officials. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dozens of military bases throughout the Pacific, where it stations more than 350,000 troops. Chinese officials have pointed this out when they push back on American efforts to counter their military expansion outside of the Indo-Pacific.

Some U.S. officials cautioned that the parameters of China’s plans in Cuba aren’t fully known, and said the two countries would move cautiously to expand security ties.

“The intelligence community has assessed for several years that the PRC intends to expand its reach globally, and in this case, it is premature to draw firm conclusions about recent reporting,” a U.S. intelligence official said. “At this stage, it does not appear to be anything that provides much of an enhancement to the current suite of capabilities.”

Any increase in security coordination between China and Cuba “is going to go slowly,” the U.S. intelligence official said.

Cuba, several officials said, has reason to move cautiously, to avoid provoking the U.S. at a time when its economy is in disastrous shape and it is seeking the easing of economic sanctions and travel restrictions imposed by Washington.

The U.S. had been tracking a planned visit to Beijing by a senior Cuban defense official that U.S. officials said they interpreted as representing the next step in the negotiations over the training facility. It wasn’t immediately clear from the latest intelligence if the visit had taken place, but officials said it reflected how close the plans were to becoming formalized.

The Biden administration contacted Cuban officials in Washington to express its concern about the planned facility, officials said.

“We’ve made our concerns known” to the Cuban government, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said earlier this month.

A White House official said Monday that the Chinese government “will keep trying to enhance its presence in Cuba, and we will keep working to disrupt it.”

Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.), the chair and vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in a joint statement earlier this month that they were “deeply disturbed by reports that Havana and Beijing are working together to target the United States and our people.”

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The near-infinite energy source that could win Britain’s net zero race

Deep geothermal energy aims to fill the gaps in the country’s green power supply

The Telegraph By Matt Oliver, 20 June 2023 

The crumbling pumping stations dotting the landscape of the Gwennap district are a visible reminder of the area’s pivotal role in the long-gone Cornish mining boom.

During the Industrial Revolution, the huge output of the district’s copper and tin mines, not far from Redruth, helped garner it a reputation as “richest square mile on earth”.

Today, businesses are digging deep in search of a different sort of treasure: energy.

At United Downs, a stone’s throw from many of the old mines, a pioneering project run by Geothermal Engineering is drawing heat from granite rocks that lie more than three miles below the surface.

It does this by pumping out water warmed to 200 degrees celsius to power a heat exchanger, before being pumped back down again to a shallower well.

From next year, the scheme will provide heat and power to 3,800 homes near Truro, as well as the Royal Cornwall Hospital, local schools and a leisure centre, after receiving £22m in funding from the Government.

Ryan Law, chief executive of Geothermal Engineering, believes it can serve as a template for similar schemes across Britain, at a time when policymakers are exploring what role the technology can play in the race to “net zero”.

It comes as another geothermal plant has also begun generating energy this week for the Eden Project near St Blazey, roughly 20 miles from United Downs.

“Geothermal has really become a hot topic in the last two years,” says Law. “We chose Cornwall because it’s the hottest spot in the UK – and United Downs is sort of the trailblazer.”

Although it can be used to generate power, like wind and solar farms, Law believes geothermal’s real promise lies in heating buildings, providing a viable replacement for gas-fired boilers. About one fifth of the UK’s carbon emissions come from keeping buildings warm, with carbon-free solutions such as electric heat pumps currently too expensive for many households.

The rock underneath Cornwall is hot because it contains small amounts of the radioactive elements uranium, potassium and thorium, Law explains, which over a large area creates “quite a lot of heat”.

This means it can be available all year-round, barring short periods needed for power plant maintenance.

“It is just a massive resource,” adds Law. “It’s like taking buckets out of the ocean. I wouldn’t say it’s infinite, but it is huge.

“And unlike wind and solar, it just keeps going once you switch it on.”

However, he argues geothermal will not compete directly with those renewables, “because it’s a different form of energy”.

“Wind and solar are pretty good at producing large scale electricity, but where geothermal fits into the mix is with this sort of elephant in the room of how we will meet our zero carbon heating targets.

“I see these projects as being installed in areas that need power and heat, for example big swathes of urban areas, because it’s that combination which could see geothermal have a big impact on the UK.”

The company already has two more projects, in Penhallow and Manhay, that have been granted planning permission. They will be even bigger, with Geothermal Engineering aiming to win support for the schemes through the Government’s contracts for difference auction this summer.

The company is seeking about £119 per megawatt hour of electricity generated, although Law says he believes the price for future plants could eventually be two thirds lower based on other projects in operation in the US today.

He also reckons that the cost of drilling the two wells at United Downs – about £24m – can be halved.

Whether this is ultimately possible will depend on demand for geothermal in Britain and the supply chains that grow to serve it.

At the moment, less than 1pc of the country’s energy is generated through geothermal schemes.

But the technology has been pioneered and proven successful elsewhere, including in Iceland, the US, Italy, France and Germany.

In Iceland, 30pc of electricity is now generated from geothermal sources. The resulting power is so cheap it is used to heat greenhouses growing bananas domestically and the freezing country has become a magnet for energy-intensive aluminium producers.

Munich has also pursued geothermal in a big way. Regional energy company Stadtwerke Munich (SWM) now operates six geothermal plants in and around the German city, providing heat and electricity for hundreds of thousands of residents and facilities.

Law claims the example of Munich is proof that the technology can be deployed in densely populated areas with relatively little disruption, despite the need for rigs to drill the wells initially.

In Britain, the most promising areas for development after Cornwall include parts of the North West such as Manchester and swathes of Yorkshire including Hull.

The UK Government is preparing to publish a white paper in the coming weeks that could set out the potential for geothermal energy and where the best opportunities are.

Geothermal energy has proved highly successful in countries such as Iceland, where 30pc of electricity is now generated from geothermal sources CREDIT: LANDSVIRKJUN/AFP via Getty Images

However, the UK currently lacks a specific regulatory regime for geothermal, according to a House of Commons Library report, and both planning and grid connection delays pose challenges.

The Eden Project scheme, for example, could potentially export some power to the grid but has been told it cannot be connected until 2036 at the earliest.

“We would love to turn it into electricity. But it’s a nightmare,” Gus Grand, the boss of Eden Geothermal, told the Financial Times.

Geothermal Engineering’s Law says a key test for the industry will be whether his company’s projects - and others - win funding from a government-run energy auction this summer. There is a specific pot of money earmarked for “developing technologies”.

This will underpin “substantial further investment” from private sources, he says.

Another emerging use of geothermal technology, being developed by his company and others including Cornish Lithium, is the extraction of underground minerals using liquid solutions. This allows resources like lithium – a key material used to make batteries – to be extracted with minimal environmental disruption and zero carbon emissions.

At the same time, as in Iceland, the technology could open up new frontiers for British agriculture. Powering greenhouses would allow British farmers to grow produce from hotter climes here without incurring ruinous energy costs.

“We’re at an inflection point now,” says Law. “I really think we’re at the tip of the iceberg and it’s just a question of maturity.

“If you remember with offshore wind, people said it would never work because it was too expensive.

“Now look at it.”

Qatar strikes second big LNG supply deal with China

The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement in which China will buy 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf Arab state.

REUTERS By Andrew Mills and Maha El Dahan, June 20, 2023

DOHA, June 20 (Reuters) - Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead in the race to secure gas supplies from Doha's massive production expansion project.

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and QatarEnergy signed a 27-year agreement, under which China will purchase 4 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) a year from the Gulf Arab state.

CNPC will also take an equity stake in the eastern expansion of Qatar's North Field LNG project, QatarEnergy chief Saad al-Kaabi said at the signing.

The stake is the equivalent of 5% of one LNG train with capacity of 8 million metric tons a year.

"Today we are signing two agreements that will further enhance our strong relations with one of the most important gas markets in the world and key market for Qatari energy products," Kaabi said.

In an identical deal, QatarEnergy sealed a 27-year supply agreement with China's Sinopec in November for 4 million metric tons a year. The state-owned Chinese gas giant also took an equity stake equivalent to 5% of one LNG train of 8 million metric tons a year capacity.

Asia, with an appetite for long-term sales and purchase agreements, has outpaced Europe in locking in supply from Qatar's two-phase expansion plan that will raise its liquefaction capacity to 126 million metric tons a year by 2027 from 77 million.

Tuesday's deal will be QatarEnergy's third deal to supply LNG from the expansion to an Asian buyer.

Other Asian buyers are also in talks for equity stakes in the expansion, Kaabi said.

DEALS WITH 'VALUE-ADDED PARTNERS'

Qatar is the world's top LNG exporter and competition for LNG has ramped up since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, with Europe in particular needing vast amounts to help replace Russian pipeline gas that used to make up almost 40% of the continent's imports.

Reuters had earlier reported that CNPC was close to finalising a deal to buy LNG from QatarEnergy over nearly 30 years from the North Field expansion project.

QatarEnergy had previously said that it could give up to 5% stakes in the gas trains linked to its North Field expansion to what Kaabi, the Gulf state's energy minister and CEO of QatarEnergy, described as "value-added partners".

In April, China's Sinopec became the first Asian energy company to become a "value-added" partner in the project.

QatarEnergy has also signed equity partnerships on the project with international oil companies but has said it plans to retain a 75% stake in the North Field expansion, which will cost at least $30 billion including construction of liquefaction export facilities.

As Beijing's ties with the United States and Australia, Qatar's two biggest LNG export rivals, are strained, Chinese national energy firms increasingly see Qatar as a safer target for resource investment.

The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the country's $445 billion sovereign wealth fund, will manage most of the revenues from the North Field expansion," Kaabi said.

"I think the majority of the revenue of what's going to come from this North Field expansion will go into a future generation wealth fund in QIA ... making sure that the Qatari people and people living in Qatar are well taken care of."

As Modi visits White House, India’s reliance on Russian arms constrains him

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WP By Karishma Mehrotra, June 20, 2023

Indian soldiers preparing for a Republic Day parade in 2014 sit near BrahMos supersonic missiles, jointly developed by India and Russia. (Saurabh Das/AP)

NEW DELHI — One of India’s most highly regarded weapons is a supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from sea, sky and land. Its name, BrahMos, is a portmanteau of the Brahmaputra River in India and the Moskva River in Russia, which began jointly developing the missile after the fall of the Soviet Union. Indian defense officials call it their “Brahmastra” — a Hindu mythological weapon that can destroy the entire universe.

India sees the missile as an essential part of a military capability that could survive a nuclear attack and has deployed it along its tense border with China. The missile has been supplied to the Philippines, and potential sales to Vietnam and Indonesia are underway.

As President Biden welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House this week, the BrahMos missile illustrates how India’s long-standing reliance on Russia for military equipment and technology constrains New Delhi’s ability to line up with the West in confronting Russia over its war in Ukraine. To Washington’s disappointment, India has not condemned the invasion.

The arms relationship is “a key driver” of India’s reluctance to vocally oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine, said Richard Rossow, the chair of U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Robust military trade between the countries dates back to the 1960s, and Russian equipment now makes up about 85 percent of the Indian arsenal, according to a team led by Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Russia has supplied fighter aircraft, nuclear submarines, cruise missiles, battle tanks, Kalashnikov rifles and much more. Some of this, such as fighter aircraft, could stay in India’s arsenal till 2065. India will remain dependent on Moscow for spare parts and maintenance for decades to come.

Other forms of Russian influence — including support for India at the United Nations and other international forums, and, since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, discounted crude oil — have all kept India close to Moscow. But experts like Lalwani say that military dependency is the “strongest” and “most durable” bond between the two countries.

“The number of really important countries to the U.S. who have a lot of Russian stuff is small, and India is at the top of that list,” said Chris Clary, a former country director for South Asian affairs in the office of the U.S. secretary of defense and now a professor at the University at Albany. “The big picture is that you don’t end a six-decade relationship quickly. It’s not going to be easy for even a determined national leadership to overcome, and it’s not at all clear to me that the current dispensation in New Delhi is determined.”

During Modi’s visit to Washington this week, U.S. officials will be looking to cut into Russian dominance of India’s military market, with discussions underway about deals to sell 31 armed drones and to jointly produce fighter jet engines involving General Electric, and a new initiative to deepen cooperation in military innovation.

The United States has been seeking to expand its role over the past decade, as military imports from Russia to India have slowly waned. India, the largest importer of weapons in the world, obtained 45 percent of its equipment from Russia in the five years through 2022, down from nearly two-thirds from the five years prior, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

American supplies still represent only 1 percent of the Indian army’s equipment and just about 4 percent of that of the Indian navy and air force, Lalwani said. From 2018 through 2022, according to SIPRI, the estimated value of Russian weapons sold to India was four times that of American weapons.

U.S. officials may not be happy about the Russian cast of India’s military. But they recognize that it’s important these weapons remain effective given the continuing tensions between India and China, which represents the top American concern in Asia, Rossow said.

Defense analysts in India agree that Russian technology is losing any technical edge it had over other suppliers, making deals with the United States more desirable. At the same time, the Ukraine war caused delays in the supply of spare parts from Russia as well as payment issues. Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, said he suspects that Indian leaders are now “regretting” their overreliance on Russia.

Russia’s dominance of the Indian market has deep roots. “Russia historically was willing to extend sophisticated technology to India that frankly the U.S. has not,” said Lisa Curtis, director of Indo-Pacific security at the Center for a New American Security, who previously directed South Asia policy at the U.S. National Security Council.

When the Soviet Union made its first major sale of MiG-21 jets to India in the 1960s, Moscow offered sweeteners that Washington didn’t match, including allowing India to pay in rupees and produce the fighter jets domestically. For decades after, the Russians had a near-monopoly on the Indian military market, charging lower costs than competitors and offering some technology transfers. Russians began to openly extend nuclear-technology sharing in the 1980s, leasing to India a nuclear submarine and supporting India’s nuclear energy production.

Many Indian military officials and planners, especially those who came of age during the Cold War, were scarred by the American decision to side with Pakistan during its 1971 war with India. “There were a lost three decades in the India-U.S. relationship because the Americans felt we were pro-Soviet,” said D.B. Venkatesh Verma, a former Indian ambassador to Russia. “We turned to the Soviets because nothing was on offer for us.”

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, when India was eager to build new trading relationships, the United States remained reluctant to supply military equipment because of concerns over India’s ambitions to develop its nuclear weapons capacity, Verma said.

The nuclear deal finalized in 2008, which saw India and the United States coordinate on nuclear power, marked a major turning point for relations between India and the United States.

“The sentiment toward the U.S. has become a lot warmer over the last 15 years, but it still hasn’t reached the level of strategic empathy that India shared with the Soviet Union and Russia,” said Rajagopalan.

After the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections, the United States became increasingly opposed to countries buying Russian equipment, adopting sanctions in 2017 that restricted the sharing of American technology with countries that bought certain Russian equipment. Despite the sanctions risk, India finalized a deal to buy Russian long-range missiles, known as S-400s, which will likely last another two decades.

The India-Russia relationship “casts a very long shadow into the future,” Verma said. “Hopefully, there is understanding from the U.S. that this is a transition that India should be allowed to make at its own pace, because India is too large and the relationship with Russia is too deep for India to make U-turns.”

Some experts in India already see it turning away from Russia. Happymon Jacob, a professor of disarmament studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, says Indians think of the Russia relationship in “past terms” and the U.S. one in “future terms.”

Senior U.S. defense officials say India began to reduce its reliance on Russia before the Ukraine war, noting that Lockheed Martin is making F-16 wings and C-130J tails in Indian factories. “Is there still a reality that they have to manage in terms of their relationship with Russia? Yes. But the trends are in the right direction,” said one official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon.