In a recent statement, President Joe Biden articulated his apprehension over the escalating crisis in Ukraine. He highlighted the crucial need to continue backing Ukraine, pointing out that if it falls, the world stands to suffer dire consequences, but…

From  Karlstad, Sweden, Germán & Co, September 21, 2023

Alarming developments have underscored a troublesome departure from the previous patterns of backing and sympathy towards Ukraine. For years, Poland, Estonia, Slovakia, and other Central and Eastern European nations have been reliable allies, firmly committed to offering military aid and shelter to Ukrainian refugees.

Moreover, these nations have played an indispensable role in promoting Ukraine's cause on the global platform. Significant players such as France and Germany have displayed moments of hesitancy and indecisiveness, resulting in noticeable cracks appearing in the previously impenetrable fortress of support, which was constructed with great attention to detail.

This disintegration of solidarity between nations reflects the fragility of the global economy and stability, portraying a pessimistic and uncertain future for Ukraine and the world. The implications of this collapse suggest a troubling and precarious future, defined by significant ambiguity and susceptibility for both Ukraine and the global community.

However, as some of these leaders now confront crucial re-election battles or grapple with domestic challenges, and as governments consider the potential consequences of a Ukrainian EU membership, their steadfast support begins to waver. The complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape reminds us of the fragile nature of alliances and the impact of individual political circumstances on foreign policy decisions.

The leaders of Central and Eastern European countries- Poland, Estonia, Slovakia, among others, have been unwavering in their efforts to support Ukraine's cause, firmly denouncing Russia's invasion and providing invaluable assistance. They have taken part in diplomatic efforts, advocating for international sanctions against Russia and urging for a united front in response to the aggression. These nations have been consistent allies, showcasing their resolute dedication to Ukraine's sovereignty and security.

Nevertheless, the upcoming re-election battles and domestic obstacles some of these leaders encounter bring about a new element of doubt to their commitment. As politicians navigate the complexities of their respective landscapes, they must consider the potential consequences of Ukraine's future EU membership. This adds a new layer of complexity to their unwavering support for the country.

Moreover, the geopolitical landscape is always changing, with world powers and alliances constantly reassessing their positions. The intricacies of alliances become apparent when subjective political circumstances significantly impact foreign policy decisions. In weighing their political futures and navigating complex dynamics within their countries, leaders may subject their commitment to Ukraine's cause to the mercurial tides of politics.

It is imperative to acknowledge that the unsteady support from these countries should not detract from the meaningful contributions they have made thus far. Their steadfast support, provision of aid, and integration of Ukrainian refugees into their communities have played a critical role in Ukraine's struggle for sovereignty. Nevertheless, it is important to recognise the multilayered nature of foreign policy choices and the potential impact of unique circumstances on international alliances.

In a world where allegiances and friendships can change with the political climate, Ukraine's situation serves as a reminder of the intricacies of global diplomacy. As these Central-European nations navigate shifting political landscapes, their continued support for Ukraine remains invaluable.

In a constantly shifting geopolitical landscape, Ukraine's situation serves as a poignant reminder of the intricacies of international relations. As Central and Eastern European nations manoeuvre through their governmental landscapes and weigh the possible outcomes of Ukraine's prospective membership in the EU, their steadfast support may encounter obstacles. Foreign policy decisions are shaped by various factors, including domestic circumstances and the ever-changing geopolitical landscape.

We are likely to come across this photograph again as a memory. What if there were more actors now? Perhaps this is due to POLITICO EU's prominent article titled “Europe blinks amid calls to stop backing Ukraine." (Article available in this edition). The reality is on Kyiv’s eastern front, where its hawkish allies appear to be wavering. Nevertheless, Kyiv's problem is not only Poland, where support seems to be slipping.

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Europe blinks amid calls to stop backing Ukraine 

“On its other eastern front, Kyiv’s hawkish allies are going wobbly.

The problem for Kyiv is that it's not just Poland where support seems to be slipping | Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images

POLITICO EU BY NICHOLAS VINOCUR AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI, SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

BRUSSELS — Russian President Vladimir Putin has made little secret of his plan to keep up the pressure on Ukraine until Western resolve breaks. More than 500 days into his war of aggression, he now has reason to believe things are working out the way he hoped, even if events are not playing out how he might have imagined.

Governments in Poland, Estonia, Slovakia and others in Central and Eastern Europe have been among Kyiv’s staunchest allies since the first day of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Beyond sending weapons and welcoming millions of Ukrainian refugees, they have been Ukraine’s loudest advocates in the West, pushing for a tough line against Moscow in the face of reluctance from countries like France and Germany.

But as the leaders of some of these ride-or-die allies face reelection battles or other domestic challenges, and governments get nervous about the impact of Ukraine one day joining the European Union, that support is starting to waver.

The most striking example is Poland, whose Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced on Wednesday that he would stop delivering new weapons to Ukraine. The statement marked a stunning escalation in a dispute between Kyiv and its closest EU neighbor over grain shipments Warsaw claims are undercutting production from Polish farmers ahead of a parliamentary election on October 15.

“Ukraine realizes that in the last months, they’re not bordering Poland, they’re bordering Polish elections,” said Ivan Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria. So for now, “the votes of a hundred thousand Polish farmers are more important for the government than what is going to be the cost for Ukraine. And we’re going to see this happening in many places,” he added.

Morawiecki is facing a tough challenge from Donald Tusk, a former prime minister who has also served as president of the European Council. As part of his electoral strategy, the prime minister is courting supporters of the far-right Confederation Party, which opposes aid for Ukraine.

“We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons,” Morawiecki said in an appearance on Polish television channel Polsat.

While it’s tempting to write off the tensions as electoral fireworks, there are reasons to believe they could persist beyond the campaign. As a Western diplomat who asked not to be named pointed out, the grain dispute between Warsaw and Kyiv reveals deeper misgivings about Ukraine joining the EU. “For 18 months, Poland has badgered any member state that would utter the slightest hesitation towards Ukraine,” the diplomat said. “Now they’re showing their true colors.”

The problem for Kyiv is that it’s not just Poland where support seems to be slipping. Since the start of the war, the Baltic states have led the pro-Ukraine charge in Brussels and Washington, perhaps nobody as loudly or effectively as Estonia’s liberal prime minister, Kaja Kallas.

As the daughter of a former prime minister and European commissioner, Kallas was widely seen as the emblem of a newly emboldened Eastern Europe that would ride the Ukraine crisis to positions of greater power in Brussels. But Kallas’ credibility took a hit over a scandal involving her husband, who was revealed to own a stake in a company that kept doing business in Russia after the February 2022 invasion, even as his wife was advocating for ending all trade with Moscow.

Asked about Kallas’ troubles, Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said that no amount of political upheaval would change the country’s course: “We constantly have elections, and we constantly have domestic issues, but it doesn’t change our policy,” Tsahkna said. “One thing Estonia has had in all these 32 years is the same continuous foreign policy.”

That said, Kallas has been a lot less vocal since the scandal broke in late August, depriving Kyiv of one of its strongest advocates in Western capitals.

Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki announced on Wednesday that he would stop delivering new weapons to Ukraine | Omar Marques/Getty Images

Then there’s Slovakia. The Central European country has been among Europe’s biggest backers of Ukraine, but elections on September 30 could turn it into a skeptic overnight.

“If you have a society where only 40 percent support arms delivery to Ukraine and your government offers support almost at the level of the Baltics, that creates a backlash,” said Milan Nič, a fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Robert Fico, the country’s populist former prime minister, is campaigning on a pro-Russian, anti-American platform that opposes sanctions against Russian individuals and further arms deliveries to Kyiv. He’s on course to win the election, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls.

A victory for Fico would give Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — one of Kyiv’s biggest European skeptics — an ally on the EU stage. If his party gets enough support to be part of the government, Fico told the Associated Press earlier this month, “we won’t send any arms or ammunition to Ukraine anymore.”

To be sure, Ukraine still has plenty of strong backers in Europe. Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Sweden, Finland and others remain strongly committed, and French President Emmanuel Macron has recently swung strongly behind Kyiv. Some analysts also downplay the importance of Poland and Slovakia’s role at the moment, pointing out that there aren’t many weapons left to deliver in the countries’ armories.

Kyiv, for now, seems relaxed. Speaking at a press conference after an event in Brussels last Friday, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna downplayed the static between Kyiv and some of its erstwhile friends: “We have a strong commitment and a political confirmation that none of the political processes will affect the ongoing support,” she said.

It’s hard to imagine, however, that somewhere Putin isn’t rubbing his hands, and watching.