What Another Six Years of Putin May Bring for Russia and the World…
Who is Germán & Co?
From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.
'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'
As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.
Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.
Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.
Juan Forch
*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind. Sunday thought in the quiet of the moment…
EU president congratulates Putin on ‘landslide’ win … as Russian voting kicks off.
“No opposition. No freedom. No choice,” blasted sarcastic Charles Michel.
A zinger from Charles Michel! Yes, really.
The European Council president congratulated Vladimir Putin on his big win in the Russian presidential election — just as three days of voting began Friday.
“I would like to congratulate Vladimir Putin on his landslide victory in the elections starting today,” blasted Michel, who is more renowned for diplomatic faux pas than social media snark. “There is no opposition, no freedom, no choice.”
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"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock...Vladimir Putin’s fifth term in office will likely be dominated by the war in Ukraine and making sure Russians support it
WSJ By Ann M. Simmons, March 17, 2024What’s next for Vladimir Putin?
After 24 years in the Kremlin, the Russian leader is on the cusp of securing another six years as president as this weekend’s presidential election winds up Sunday. The vote itself is largely a formality, putting him on the path to becoming Russia’s longest-serving leader since Stalin. His government pulled out all the stops to secure the win. It jailed critics, muzzled the press and introduced new laws to stamp out anything that could be considered criticism of his war in Ukraine. Putin’s most effective opponent, Alexei Navalny, was gone, found dead in an Arctic prison camp last month where he was serving out sentences totaling 30 years in circumstances that haven’t been fully explained.
What matters more is the extent of his victory. Putin, now 71 years old, doesn’t just want to win. Analysts who follow the country’s politics say he needs to win big if he wants a free hand in reviving what he says are Russia’s conservative Orthodox traditions and, ultimately, prevailing in Ukraine and in his broader confrontation with the West.
“This would legitimize Putin’s legacy and his war of aggression, relegating the remaining opposition to an even more marginalized role, and allowing Putin to implement, unchecked, his vision for the next six years,” the European Parliament Think Tank, which provides analysis and research on policy issues relating to the European Union, said in a briefing paper this month.
The last presidential election in 2018 put turnout at 67.5%, with close to 77% of the vote going to Putin, according to government data. The Kremlin has made clear it wants even higher numbers this time around to provide the Russian leader a free hand in pursuing his objectives, following the “tradition of post-election carte blanche for Putin,” as Boris Vishnevsky, deputy head of the opposition party Yabloko, put it in comments posted on his Telegram channel.
Putin has already signaled some of his plans in speeches and interviews. Chief among them is his insistence on carrying on the war in Ukraine as the U.S.’s support for Kyiv shows signs of wavering.
“I think this is what the election was about—that this is a national war, that he’s the leader of the nation in this existential struggle to maintain Russia’s role in the world, to maintain Russia’s territorial integrity,” said Angela Stent, author of the book “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest” and a senior adviser at the Washington, D.C. -based United States Institute of Peace. “Everything that he has signaled is that he’s going to continue the war.”
Observers predict the Russian leader could soon launch another wave of arrests and detentions at home, new laws to stifle dissent and increased taxes on the rich. Analysts said there could also be a new wave of mobilizations to reinforce Russia’s growing advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine.
“What we have seen recently is an increase in activity of Russian intelligence and security services, which are extremely aggressive,” a reflection of the regime’s pre-election paranoia, Andrei Soldatov, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for European Policy Analysis told a media briefing on Thursday. “Because it is political stability which is at stake, everything is justifiable, including the killing of political opponents [and] attacks abroad,” he said.
Soldatov predicted the clampdown on criticism evident in the run-up to the election will continue once the vote is done, following a familiar pattern in Russia.
“They use the election as an excuse, and then they just make these methods and activities part of their playbook. My biggest concern is that they’re going to be using this for months and months to come,” he said.
Putin may face a more delicate balancing act in keeping Russia’s economy ticking. It has fared relatively well despite Western sanctions, with trade with China and buoyant oil prices helping to insulate the country’s political and business elite from any real hardship. Analysts said he would likely focus on making sure Russians continue living life as normal, while also announcing plans to spend billions of dollars to tackle poverty and to rebuild much of the country’s aging infrastructure as more of the economy goes into a war footing.
To pay for it, Putin has proposed a more progressive taxation system that some analysts suggested was aimed at appeasing poorer Russians who are making more sacrifices, both financially and in terms of family members being drafted to fight in the war.
“Truly, the distribution of the tax burden should be fair in the sense that corporations, legal entities, and individuals who earn more should contribute more to the national treasury, towards addressing nationwide problems, primarily towards fighting against poverty,” he said in an interview on state television on Wednesday.
He also spoke of creating a new elite composed of veterans and those who served in the Ukraine war and has called for them to be given more support, including academic opportunities and training.
“The true, real elite is everyone who serves Russia, workers and warriors, reliable, proven, who have proven their devotion to Russia, worthy people,” Putin said.
Some analysts described such rhetoric as empty pre-election promises. What seems more realistic, they said, was that Putin could eventually order a second mobilization, needed to gain a battlefield advantage at a time when Ukraine has faced some foot-dragging from Western nations supporting its military campaign.
Putin’s first draft of some 300,000 men in September 2022 sent hundreds of thousands fleeing across the border, among them droves of young professionals. The Russian leader will need to find a way to prevent a repetition of the exodus, such as closing the border, some analysts said.
“There’s no evidence they wouldn’t incur the same kind of resistance if he did it in the next few months,” Stent said. Though some polls show that Russians largely support the war, “it’s another thing to have their fathers, sons, brothers mobilized and sent to fight,” she said.
Other Russia watchers suggested that in addition to throwing more money at potential contract soldiers, another way to replenish the troops on the battlefield would be to draw more conscripts into the fight.
Under Russian law, conscripts aren’t supposed to be deployed to fight in Ukraine, only reservists who have completed their military service and training. But last summer, Russia raised the maximum conscription age by three years to 30 and established that conscripts would be able to enter into contracts for military service for one year during certain circumstances, including during a period of mobilization, in wartime and when the Russia’s armed forces are fighting outside the country.
Some Russians braved the threat of arrest to voice their opposition to Putin as voting began on Friday. The Central Election Commission reported five incidents of voters trying to sabotage ballot boxes by pouring liquid into them, including dye. The Investigative Committee, the country’s main federal investigating authority, said it was investigating several such incidents on criminal grounds.
The deputy election-commission chairman, Nikolai Bulaev, accused opposition elements of adopting what he said were terrorism tactics. His boss, Ella Pamfilova, called the suspects “scum” who deserved to go to jail for up to five years, Russia’s state news agency TASS reported.
In a separate incident, investigators said they had opened a criminal probe into the case of a woman suspected of setting fire to a voting booth at a polling station in southeast Moscow. Maria Andreeva, who is among a movement of wives and mothers campaigning for their mobilized men to be returned home, posted a letter from prosecutors on Telegram warning her against participating in unauthorized public events planned at polling stations in Moscow.
The real test of opposition may be yet to come.
Putin’s critics, including Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, joined forces by calling for voters to flood polling stations at noon on Sunday, and for those brave enough, to wear blue and white—colors that have been used to symbolize opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Opponents have also encouraged people to spoil their ballots or vote for someone else.
At this point, it is more a token gesture of defiance, though, and one that could result in severe consequences for anyone caught up in another crackdown.
The more significant election could be the presidential vote in the U.S. in November. Stent, the analyst, said Putin was likely waiting for the outcome along with other elections in Europe, where support for Ukraine is also showing cracks.
“He’s awaiting what will happen if Western support for Ukraine erodes, and there are already clearly differences in the alliance about that,” she said. “I think he’s going to continue the war for as long as he needs to. At this point, he feels that time is on his side.”