Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

Introduction of the Middle East Conflict on Oil Markets:

If Shakespeare were to momentarily shift his focus from contemplating profound existential dilemmas, such as the timeless "To be or not to be" or the more contemporary quandary of "Married or unmarried," he might discover that the intricate complexities of the enduring Middle East conflict appear surprisingly less daunting than the decision to say "I do" or not.

The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, such as Iran's drone and missile strikes on Israel, has raised concerns about possible disruptions in oil supply and resulting market volatility.  Despite tensions, the oil market has seen a slight price decrease, with Light Crude Oil Futures showing a marginal decline.  Traders need to monitor further dynamic developments closely.

“The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, released on October 30, 2023, states that the current global economy is more resilient to oil price shocks compared to the 1970s. The ongoing Middle East conflict and the Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead global commodity markets into uncharted territory. The report advises mitigating impacts if the conflict does not intensify. The baseline forecast anticipates oil prices to average $90 per barrel this quarter, with a projected fall to $81 per barrel next year as global economic growth decelerates. Commodity prices are expected to fall by 4.1% next year, with agricultural commodity prices likely to decrease due to higher supplies. Base metal prices are projected to drop by 5% in 2024…

The report outlines three risk scenarios based on historical events since the 1970s, depending on the disruption to oil supplies. 

1. In a minor disruption scenario, global oil supply could decrease by 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day, similar to the Libyan civil war in 2011.  Oil prices are projected to increase by 3% to 13% compared to the current quarter, reaching $93 to $102 per barrel.

2.  If a medium disruption happens, the global oil supply could decrease by 3 to 5 million barrels per day, similar to the Iraq war's impact in 2003.  Oil prices could increase by 21% to 35%, reaching $109 to $121 per barrel.

 3. A significant disruption, similar to the Arab oil embargo in 1973, would reduce the global oil supply by 6 to 8 million barrels per day.  Consequently, prices are expected to increase by 56% to 75%, reaching $140 to $157 per barrel.

In conclusion, although the conflict's impact on global commodity markets has been limited, policymakers must remain vigilant.  Any further escalation could significantly impact increased oil prices and worsen food insecurity.

*WB Press Release on October 30, 2023. “Conflict in Middle East Could Bring ‘Dual Shock’ to Global Commodity Markets

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/26/commodity-markets-outlook-october-2023-press-release

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By Germán & Co in Karlstad, Sweden on April 15, 2024

In the vast theatre of life, political leaders of yesterday and today – as actors in an eternal drama – face a momentous decision: pomposity or perfidy?

…Two masks, two roles, two destinations.

Pomposity, like a marble throne in the Roman Forum, rises majestically.  He wears the cloak of self-importance, his bearing solemn.  The pompous orator declaims his words in marble halls but is often substanceless.  He is the leader who confuses grandiosity with gravity and rejoices in ceremony. But beware, because underneath the façade lies emptiness, a hollow vanity that mocks even the gods.  And then there's betrayal, that shadowy figure that lurks in the corridors of power.  He wears a mask of intrigue, his actions whispered in dark chambers.  Disappointedly, he dances; his footsteps leave no trace on the marble floors.  It's the puppeteer, pulling invisible strings, orchestrating chaos with an evil grin.  Perfidy thrives on secrecy, its motives veiled, and its actions calculated.  It's the dagger hidden in the folds of a senator's robe, ready to strike when you least expect it.  But beware, its darkness consumes everything: morality, honour, and the very fabric of society.

It is widely recognized that leaders may deliberately provoke conflict as a strategic approach to maintain control when they risk losing power.  "This phenomenon is complex and fascinating, deserving further comprehensive investigation."

The combination of Saddam Hussein (Ṣaddām Ḥusayn al-Tikrītī, was born on April 28, 1937, in the village of Al-ʿAwjah, Iraq) and Benjamin Netanyahu's (“Bibi”, born on October 21, 1949, in Tel Aviv, Israel), (The Israeli Prime Minister's nickname 'Bibi' has an ironic issue as it can be easily confused with the Arabic term 'Habibi', which means 'my beloved' or 'my dear one'.), unique attributes and behaviours and ISIS's impact on regional dynamics makes for an intriguing phenomenon that deserves further analysis.

Saddam Hussein, the former president of Iraq, made dangerous decisions based on his skewed perception of reality. He was known for his erratic behavior, which was further exacerbated by the fall of the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (The Shah, was born on October 26, 1919, in Tehran, Sublime State of Persia), in January 1979 and the emergence of Imam Ruhollah Khomeini (born in Khomeyn, in what is now Iran’s Markazi province). These events were perceived by Hussein as a significant threat to the Arab world, worsening his already distorted mindset.

Under authoritarian governance, Saddam Hussein exercised substantial control over Iraq, suppressing dissent and centralizing power through tactics of intimidation and coercion.  His administration was marked by violations of human rights, particularly the notorious Anfal campaign that specifically targeted the Kurdish community.

Additionally, Sheikh Fahad of Kuwait (Sheikh Fahad Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, born on August 10, 1945 in Kuwait), engaged in oil price manipulation (dumping), which exacerbated Hussein's erratic behavior.   Hussein perceived this as a direct threat to Iraq's struggling economy and regional stability. Consequently, his sense of instability was amplified, resulting in increasingly unpredictable decision-making.

Saddam Hussein's interactions with the United States were complex and evolved significantly over time.  In the 1980s, the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq as allies during the Iran–Iraq War.  This support was primarily driven by geopolitical motives and the goal of countering Iran's influence.

During this time, the U.S. offered Iraqi military aid, intelligence, and diplomatic backing.  In the 1990s, the United States changed its approach towards Saddam Hussein.

After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the U.S. led a coalition to liberate Kuwait and imposed economic sanctions on Iraq.  The U.S. aimed to contain Saddam's regime to reduce its regional impact, resulting in escalating tensions and a strained relationship.   

In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq, alleging that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).  The invasion led to the downfall of Saddam's regime.  Diplomatic relations were restored only after Saddam's removal, leading to the establishment of a pro-American government in Iraq.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, is recognized as an astute politician renowned for his strategic political manoeuvres.  He skillfully navigated the complexities of Israeli political dynamics by establishing coalitions and forming strategic alliances to uphold his authority.  Netanyahu's incoming hard-line government has prioritized the expansion of the West Bank settlement.  The coalition agreement includes plans to legalize dozens of illegally built outposts and even annex the occupied territory.  This controversial move is part of a coalition deal with ultranationalist allies.  However, most of the international community considers these settlements illegal and an obstacle to peace with the Palestinians.

The United States has already cautioned against actions that could undermine hopes for an independent Palestinian state.  The situation remains highly charged and could strain relations with Israel's closest allies abroad.

The Prime Minister of Israel's close connection to the former Trump administration (and his exaltation to the Gods, hoping that the former president Donald Trump (Donald John Trump was born on June 14, 1946, at Jamaica Hospital in Queens, New York City) would be re-elected in November's elections is also disputed.  Netanyahu has employed survival strategies like those used by Hussein.  He has effectively managed allegations of corruption, maintained a strong support network, and skilfully tackled security issues while facing a degree of divisiveness and polarization.  Specific individuals view him as a strong leader who prioritizes Israel's security, while others critique his policies and handling of domestic matters. Amid all the chaos, Europe is not taking any chances and is swiftly constructing an anti-aircraft shield for diplomatic security. Why, you ask? Well, it's all in preparation for the potential comeback of the one and only former President Donald Trump this coming November. Europe is not about to let any surprises catch them off guard!

The resurgence of ISIS has significantly influenced the dynamics in the Middle East.  The group's brutal tactics, territorial acquisitions, and recruitment efforts attracted international attention.  ISIS exploited preexisting conflicts, such as the Syrian civil war and sectarian tensions, to incite disorder and violence.  ISIS presented a significant challenge to the established state boundaries, resulting in destabilization within Iraq, Syria, and adjacent nations.  The ideology transcended national borders, attracting foreign combatants, and posing a threat to global security.

Finally, the potential risk of a global oil market disruption, such as the recent war in Ukraine, has not yet materialized. However, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine, which caused oil prices to skyrocket to over $110 per barrel.

The analysis concludes that the wanderer, who was suffering from cancer and had no place to stay, responded ambiguously to the question posed to the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.  This was during an interview with journalist David Frost (David Paradine Frost, born on April 7, 1939, in Tenterden, Kent, England) in 1979 for BBC (this interview is considered one of the most important in journalism history) on Contadora Island in Panama.  Frost asked the Shah how many people disappeared during his reign, but the answer remains to be discovered.  This situation is a clear reminder that one should not take unnecessary risks, which can lead to undesirable consequences.  Playing with fire always leaves one burned. 

Bibliography:

1. The Camp David Summit in the USA, which took place from July 11 to 25, 2000.

2. David Frost's face-to-face interview with the Shah of Iran on Contadora Island, Panama, in 1979.

3. World Bank Press Release, October 30, 2023: "Conflict in Middle East May Trigger 'Dual Shock' in Global Commodity Markets"

4. Deepened lost in diplomacy... germantoroghio.com, august, 2023.

5. "The Achilles Trap" by Steve Coll, Pulitzer Prize winner, explores events leading to the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. Published 02/27/2024, the book offers a detailed analysis.

6. The intention to incite a global conflict should be clearly evident... Germantoroghio.com, March 2024.

7. Europe faces a tough test: Can it confront Vladimir Putin without help from the US? POLITICO European Union article from January 2024.

8. Isis Returns, as reported by Le Monde Diplomatique in March 2024.

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